Risk mapping of Rinderpest sero-prevalence in Central and Southern Somalia based on spatial and network risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz-Pelaez, Angel; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Tempia, Stefano; Otieno, F Tom; Aden, Hussein H; Costagli, Riccardo

2010-04-28

In contrast to most pastoral systems, the Somali livestock production system is oriented towards domestic trade and export with seasonal movement patterns of herds/flocks in search of water and pasture and towards export points. Data from a rinderpest survey and other data sources have been integrated to explore the topology of a contact network of cattle herds based on a spatial proximity criterion and other attributes related to cattle herd dynamics. The objective of the study is to integrate spatial mobility and other attributes with GIS and network approaches in order to develop a predictive spatial model of presence of rinderpest. A spatial logistic regression model was fitted using data for 562 point locations. It includes three statistically significant continuous-scale variables that increase the risk of rinderpest: home range radius, herd density and clustering coefficient of the node of the network whose link was established if the sum of the home ranges of every pair of nodes was equal or greater than the shortest distance between the points. The sensitivity of the model is 85.1% and the specificity 84.6%, correctly classifying 84.7% of the observations. The spatial autocorrelation not accounted for by the model is negligible and visual assessment of a semivariogram of the residuals indicated that there was no undue amount of spatial autocorrelation. The predictive model was applied to a set of 6176 point locations covering the study area. Areas at high risk of having serological evidence of rinderpest are located mainly in the coastal districts of Lower and Middle Juba, the coastal area of Lower Shabele and in the regions of Middle Shabele and Bay. There are also isolated spots of high risk along the border with Kenya and the southern area of the border with Ethiopia. The identification of point locations and areas with high risk of presence of rinderpest and their spatial visualization as a risk map will be useful for informing the prioritization of

Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

2017-12-01

This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdulkareem, Shaheen A; Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Mustafa, Yaseen T; Filatova, Tatiana

2018-03-20

Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed. We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior). We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of

Dynamical tendencies of health consequences caused by competitive risk factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bykov, A.A.; Pronina, I.A.; Kudriavtsev, G.I.

2000-01-01

The paper deals with the generalized probabilistic approach for analyzing health consequences caused by various exposure factors. Formally basing on the competitive risk theory, it is introduced a general risk model for analysis the influence of environmental risk factors to human health. The usefulness of the model approach is in the opportunity of taking into account: time delay of impact and consequence manifestation; easy comparisons of exposure factors with different nature and various consequences (morbidity and mortality, carcinogenic and genetic); social and environmental components in overall mortality. Preliminary examples of comparative risk analysis are demonstrated on the Russian demography and environmental data with the attempt of characterizing the dynamical tendencies and evolution of introduced risk index. The prospects of the probabilistic approach and the results obtaining on this basis are discussed. (author)

Dynamic spatial panels : models, methods, and inferences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elhorst, J. Paul

This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent

A ubiquitous method for street scale spatial data collection and analysis in challenging urban environments: mapping health risks using spatial video in Haiti.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Andrew; Blackburn, Jason K; Widmer, Jocelyn M; Morris, J Glenn

2013-04-15

Fine-scale and longitudinal geospatial analysis of health risks in challenging urban areas is often limited by the lack of other spatial layers even if case data are available. Underlying population counts, residential context, and associated causative factors such as standing water or trash locations are often missing unless collected through logistically difficult, and often expensive, surveys. The lack of spatial context also hinders the interpretation of results and designing intervention strategies structured around analytical insights. This paper offers a ubiquitous spatial data collection approach using a spatial video that can be used to improve analysis and involve participatory collaborations. A case study will be used to illustrate this approach with three health risks mapped at the street scale for a coastal community in Haiti. Spatial video was used to collect street and building scale information, including standing water, trash accumulation, presence of dogs, cohort specific population characteristics, and other cultural phenomena. These data were digitized into Google Earth and then coded and analyzed in a GIS using kernel density and spatial filtering approaches. The concentrations of these risks around area schools which are sometimes sources of diarrheal disease infection because of the high concentration of children and variable sanitary practices will show the utility of the method. In addition schools offer potential locations for cholera education interventions. Previously unavailable fine scale health risk data vary in concentration across the town, with some schools being proximate to greater concentrations of the mapped risks. The spatial video is also used to validate coded data and location specific risks within these "hotspots". Spatial video is a tool that can be used in any environment to improve local area health analysis and intervention. The process is rapid and can be repeated in study sites through time to track spatio

Spatial cluster detection using dynamic programming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sverchkov Yuriy

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The task of spatial cluster detection involves finding spatial regions where some property deviates from the norm or the expected value. In a probabilistic setting this task can be expressed as finding a region where some event is significantly more likely than usual. Spatial cluster detection is of interest in fields such as biosurveillance, mining of astronomical data, military surveillance, and analysis of fMRI images. In almost all such applications we are interested both in the question of whether a cluster exists in the data, and if it exists, we are interested in finding the most accurate characterization of the cluster. Methods We present a general dynamic programming algorithm for grid-based spatial cluster detection. The algorithm can be used for both Bayesian maximum a-posteriori (MAP estimation of the most likely spatial distribution of clusters and Bayesian model averaging over a large space of spatial cluster distributions to compute the posterior probability of an unusual spatial clustering. The algorithm is explained and evaluated in the context of a biosurveillance application, specifically the detection and identification of Influenza outbreaks based on emergency department visits. A relatively simple underlying model is constructed for the purpose of evaluating the algorithm, and the algorithm is evaluated using the model and semi-synthetic test data. Results When compared to baseline methods, tests indicate that the new algorithm can improve MAP estimates under certain conditions: the greedy algorithm we compared our method to was found to be more sensitive to smaller outbreaks, while as the size of the outbreaks increases, in terms of area affected and proportion of individuals affected, our method overtakes the greedy algorithm in spatial precision and recall. The new algorithm performs on-par with baseline methods in the task of Bayesian model averaging. Conclusions We conclude that the dynamic

Analysing spatially extended high-dimensional dynamics by recurrence plots

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marwan, Norbert, E-mail: marwan@pik-potsdam.de [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Kurths, Jürgen [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Institut für Physik (Germany); Nizhny Novgorod State University, Department of Control Theory, Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); Foerster, Saskia [GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 1.4 Remote Sensing, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam (Germany)

2015-05-08

Recurrence plot based measures of complexity are capable tools for characterizing complex dynamics. In this letter we show the potential of selected recurrence plot measures for the investigation of even high-dimensional dynamics. We apply this method on spatially extended chaos, such as derived from the Lorenz96 model and show that the recurrence plot based measures can qualitatively characterize typical dynamical properties such as chaotic or periodic dynamics. Moreover, we demonstrate its power by analysing satellite image time series of vegetation cover with contrasting dynamics as a spatially extended and potentially high-dimensional example from the real world. - Highlights: • We use recurrence plots for analysing partially extended dynamics. • We investigate the high-dimensional chaos of the Lorenz96 model. • The approach distinguishes different spatio-temporal dynamics. • We use the method for studying vegetation cover time series.

Preliminary spatial analysis of combined BATSE/Ulysses gamma-ray burst locations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kippen, R. Marc; Hurley, Kevin; Pendleton, Geoffrey N.

1998-01-01

We present the preliminary spatial analysis of 278 bursts that have been localized by BATSE and the two-spacecraft Compton/Ulysses Interplanetary Network. The large number and superior accuracy of the combined BATSE/Ulysses locations provides improved sensitivity to small-angle source properties. We find that the locations are consistent with large- and small-scale isotropy, with no significant small-angle clustering. We constrain the fraction of sources in clusters and discuss the implications for burst repetition

Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Adrian; Battles, John; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2008-01-01

For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor, Abies magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, and Pinus lambertiana, in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots.In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor, our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana, mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity.Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana, spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor, although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial

The effects of spatial dynamics on a wormhole throat

Science.gov (United States)

Alias, Anuar; Wan Abdullah, Wan Ahmad Tajuddin

2018-02-01

Previous studies on dynamic wormholes were focused on the dynamics of the wormhole itself, be it either rotating or evolutionary in character and also in various frameworks from classical to braneworld cosmological models. In this work, we modeled a dynamic factor that represents the spatial dynamics in terms of spacetime expansion and contraction surrounding the wormhole itself. Using an RS2-based braneworld cosmological model, we modified the spacetime metric of Wong and subsequently employed the method of Bronnikov, where it is observed that a traversable wormhole is easier to exist in an expanding brane universe, however it is difficult to exist in a contracting brane universe due to stress-energy tensors requirement. This model of spatial dynamic factor affecting the wormhole throat can also be applied on the cyclic or the bounce universe model.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of security investments in an interdependent risk environment

Science.gov (United States)

Shafi, Kamran; Bender, Axel; Zhong, Weicai; Abbass, Hussein A.

2012-10-01

In a globalised world where risks spread through contagion, the decision of an entity to invest in securing its premises from stochastic risks no longer depends solely on its own actions but also on the actions of other interacting entities in the system. This phenomenon is commonly seen in many domains including airline, logistics and computer security and is referred to as Interdependent Security (IDS). An IDS game models this decision problem from a game-theoretic perspective and deals with the behavioural dynamics of risk-reduction investments in such settings. This paper enhances this model and investigates the spatio-temporal aspects of the IDS games. The spatio-temporal dynamics are studied using simple replicator dynamics on a variety of network structures and for various security cost tradeoffs that lead to different Nash equilibria in an IDS game. The simulation results show that the neighbourhood configuration has a greater effect on the IDS game dynamics than network structure. An in-depth empirical analysis of game dynamics is carried out on regular graphs, which leads to the articulation of necessary and sufficient conditions for dominance in IDS games under spatial constraints.

Correlation of Spatially Filtered Dynamic Speckles in Distance Measurement Application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semenov, Dmitry V.; Nippolainen, Ervin; Kamshilin, Alexei A.; Miridonov, Serguei V.

2008-01-01

In this paper statistical properties of spatially filtered dynamic speckles are considered. This phenomenon was not sufficiently studied yet while spatial filtering is an important instrument for speckles velocity measurements. In case of spatial filtering speckle velocity information is derived from the modulation frequency of filtered light power which is measured by photodetector. Typical photodetector output is represented by a narrow-band random noise signal which includes non-informative intervals. Therefore more or less precious frequency measurement requires averaging. In its turn averaging implies uncorrelated samples. However, conducting research we found that correlation is typical property not only of dynamic speckle patterns but also of spatially filtered speckles. Using spatial filtering the correlation is observed as a response of measurements provided to the same part of the object surface or in case of simultaneously using several adjacent photodetectors. Found correlations can not be explained using just properties of unfiltered dynamic speckles. As we demonstrate the subject of this paper is important not only from pure theoretical point but also from the point of applied speckle metrology. E.g. using single spatial filter and an array of photodetector can greatly improve accuracy of speckle velocity measurements

The spatial and temporal `cost' of volcanic eruptions: assessing economic impact, business inoperability, and spatial distribution of risk in the Auckland region, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

McDonald, Garry W.; Smith, Nicola J.; Kim, Joon-hwan; Cronin, Shane J.; Proctor, Jon N.

2017-07-01

Volcanic risk assessment has historically concentrated on quantifying the frequency, magnitude, and potential diversity of physical processes of eruptions and their consequent impacts on life and property. A realistic socio-economic assessment of volcanic impact must however take into account dynamic properties of businesses and extend beyond only measuring direct infrastructure/property loss. The inoperability input-output model, heralded as one of the 10 most important accomplishments in risk analysis over the last 30 years (Kujawaski Syst Eng. 9:281-295, 2006), has become prominent over the last decade in the economic impact assessment of business disruptions. We develop a dynamic inoperability input-output model to assess the economic impacts of a hypothetical volcanic event occurring at each of 7270 unique spatial locations throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. This field of at least 53 volcanoes underlies the country's largest urban area, the Auckland region, which is home to 1.4 million people and responsible for 35.3% (NZ201481.2 billion) of the nation's GDP (Statistics New Zealand 2015). We apply volcanic event characteristics for a small-medium-scale volcanic eruption scenario and assess the economic impacts of an `average' eruption in the Auckland region. Economic losses are quantified both with, and without, business mitigation and intervention responses in place. We combine this information with a recent spatial hazard probability map (Bebbington and Cronin Bull Volcanol. 73(1):55-72, 2011) to produce novel spatial economic activity `at risk' maps. Our approach demonstrates how business inoperability losses sit alongside potential life and property damage assessment in enhancing our understanding of volcanic risk mitigation.

Graph Theory Roots of Spatial Operators for Kinematics and Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Abhinandan

2011-01-01

Spatial operators have been used to analyze the dynamics of robotic multibody systems and to develop novel computational dynamics algorithms. Mass matrix factorization, inversion, diagonalization, and linearization are among several new insights obtained using such operators. While initially developed for serial rigid body manipulators, the spatial operators and the related mathematical analysis have been shown to extend very broadly including to tree and closed topology systems, to systems with flexible joints, links, etc. This work uses concepts from graph theory to explore the mathematical foundations of spatial operators. The goal is to study and characterize the properties of the spatial operators at an abstract level so that they can be applied to a broader range of dynamics problems. The rich mathematical properties of the kinematics and dynamics of robotic multibody systems has been an area of strong research interest for several decades. These properties are important to understand the inherent physical behavior of systems, for stability and control analysis, for the development of computational algorithms, and for model development of faithful models. Recurring patterns in spatial operators leads one to ask the more abstract question about the properties and characteristics of spatial operators that make them so broadly applicable. The idea is to step back from the specific application systems, and understand more deeply the generic requirements and properties of spatial operators, so that the insights and techniques are readily available across different kinematics and dynamics problems. In this work, techniques from graph theory were used to explore the abstract basis for the spatial operators. The close relationship between the mathematical properties of adjacency matrices for graphs and those of spatial operators and their kernels were established. The connections hold across very basic requirements on the system topology, the nature of the component

Study of spatially extended dynamical systems using probabilistic cellular automata

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanag, Vladimir K

1999-01-01

Spatially extended dynamical systems are ubiquitous and include such things as insect and animal populations; complex chemical, technological, and geochemical processes; humanity itself, and much more. It is clearly desirable to have a certain universal tool with which the highly complex behaviour of nonlinear dynamical systems can be analyzed and modelled. For this purpose, cellular automata seem to be good candidates. In the present review, emphasis is placed on the possibilities that various types of probabilistic cellular automata (PCA), such as DSMC (direct simulation Monte Carlo) and LGCA (lattice-gas cellular automata), offer. The methods are primarily designed for modelling spatially extended dynamical systems with inner fluctuations accounted for. For the Willamowskii-Roessler and Oregonator models, PCA applications to the following problems are illustrated: the effect of fluctuations on the dynamics of nonlinear systems; Turing structure formation; the effect of hydrodynamic modes on the behaviour of nonlinear chemical systems (stirring effects); bifurcation changes in the dynamical regimes of complex systems with restricted geometry or low spatial dimension; and the description of chemical systems in microemulsions. (reviews of topical problems)

Hydraulically driven control rod concept for integral reactors: fluid dynamic simulation and preliminary test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ricotti, M.E.; Cammi, A.; Lombardi, C.; Passoni, M.; Rizzo, C.; Carelli, M.; Colombo, E.

2003-01-01

The paper deals with the preliminary study of the Hydraulically Driven Control Rod concept, tailored for PWR control rods (spider type) with hydraulic drive mechanism completely immersed in the primary water. A specific solution suitable for advanced versions of the IRIS integral reactor is under investigation. The configuration of the Hydraulic Control Rod device, made up by an external movable piston and an internal fixed cylinder, is described. After a brief description of the whole control system, particular attention is devoted to the Control Rod characterization via Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis. The investigation of the system behavior, including dynamic equilibrium and stability properties, has been carried out. Finally, preliminary tests were performed in a low pressure, low temperature, reduced length experimental facility. The results are compared with the dynamic control model and CFD simulation model, showing good agreement between simulations and experimental data. During these preliminary tests, the control system performs correctly, allowing stable dynamic equilibrium positions for the Control Rod and stable behavior during withdrawal and insertion steps. (author)

Fractal dimension evolution and spatial replacement dynamics of urban growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Yanguang

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► The fractal dimension growth can be modeled by Boltzmann’s equation. ► Boltzmann’s model suggests urban spatial replacement dynamics. ► If the rate of urban growth is too high, periodic oscillations or chaos will arise. ► Chaos is associated with fractals by the fractal dimension evolution model. ► The fractal dimension of urban form implies the space-filling ratio of a city. - Abstract: This paper presents a new perspective of looking at the relation between fractals and chaos by means of cities. Especially, a principle of space filling and spatial replacement is proposed to interpret the fractal dimension of urban form. The fractal dimension evolution of urban growth can be empirically modeled with Boltzmann’s equation. For the normalized data, Boltzmann’s equation is just equivalent to the logistic function. The logistic equation can be transformed into the well-known 1-dimensional logistic map, which is based on a 2-dimensional map suggesting spatial replacement dynamics of city development. The 2-dimensional recurrence relations can be employed to generate the nonlinear dynamical behaviors such as bifurcation and chaos. A discovery is thus made in this article that, for the fractal dimension growth following the logistic curve, the normalized dimension value is the ratio of space filling. If the rate of spatial replacement (urban growth) is too high, the periodic oscillations and chaos will arise. The spatial replacement dynamics can be extended to general replacement dynamics, and bifurcation and chaos mirror a process of complex replacement.

Estimating Bird / Aircraft Collision Probabilities and Risk Utilizing Spatial Poisson Processes

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-10

ESTIMATING BIRD/AIRCRAFT COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE...AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE RESEARCH PAPER Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences...COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES Brady J. Vaira, BS, MS Major, USAF Approved

Preliminary frequency-domain analysis for the reconstructed spatial resolution of muon tomography

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, B.; Zhao, Z.; Wang, X.; Wang, Y.; Wu, D.; Zeng, Z.; Zeng, M.; Yi, H.; Luo, Z.; Yue, X.; Cheng, J.

2014-11-01

Muon tomography is an advanced technology to non-destructively detect high atomic number materials. It exploits the multiple Coulomb scattering information of muon to reconstruct the scattering density image of the traversed object. Because of the statistics of muon scattering, the measurement error of system and the data incompleteness, the reconstruction is always accompanied with a certain level of interference, which will influence the reconstructed spatial resolution. While statistical noises can be reduced by extending the measuring time, system parameters determine the ultimate spatial resolution that one system can reach. In this paper, an effective frequency-domain model is proposed to analyze the reconstructed spatial resolution of muon tomography. The proposed method modifies the resolution analysis in conventional computed tomography (CT) to fit the different imaging mechanism in muon scattering tomography. The measured scattering information is described in frequency domain, then a relationship between the measurements and the original image is proposed in Fourier domain, which is named as "Muon Central Slice Theorem". Furthermore, a preliminary analytical expression of the ultimate reconstructed spatial is derived, and the simulations are performed for validation. While the method is able to predict the ultimate spatial resolution of a given system, it can also be utilized for the optimization of system design and construction.

Preliminary frequency-domain analysis for the reconstructed spatial resolution of muon tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, B.; Zhao, Z.; Wang, X.; Wang, Y.; Wu, D.; Zeng, Z.; Zeng, M.; Yi, H.; Luo, Z.; Yue, X.; Cheng, J.

2014-01-01

Muon tomography is an advanced technology to non-destructively detect high atomic number materials. It exploits the multiple Coulomb scattering information of muon to reconstruct the scattering density image of the traversed object. Because of the statistics of muon scattering, the measurement error of system and the data incompleteness, the reconstruction is always accompanied with a certain level of interference, which will influence the reconstructed spatial resolution. While statistical noises can be reduced by extending the measuring time, system parameters determine the ultimate spatial resolution that one system can reach. In this paper, an effective frequency-domain model is proposed to analyze the reconstructed spatial resolution of muon tomography. The proposed method modifies the resolution analysis in conventional computed tomography (CT) to fit the different imaging mechanism in muon scattering tomography. The measured scattering information is described in frequency domain, then a relationship between the measurements and the original image is proposed in Fourier domain, which is named as M uon Central Slice Theorem . Furthermore, a preliminary analytical expression of the ultimate reconstructed spatial is derived, and the simulations are performed for validation. While the method is able to predict the ultimate spatial resolution of a given system, it can also be utilized for the optimization of system design and construction

Managing distributed dynamic systems with spatial grasp technology

CERN Document Server

Sapaty, Peter Simon

2017-01-01

The book describes a novel ideology and supporting information technology for integral management of both civil and defence-orientated large, distributed dynamic systems. The approach is based on a high-level Spatial Grasp Language, SGL, expressing solutions in physical, virtual, executive and combined environments in the form of active self-evolving and self-propagating patterns spatially matching the systems to be created, modified and controlled. The communicating interpreters of SGL can be installed in key system points, which may be in large numbers (up to millions and billions) and represent equipped humans, robots, laptops, smartphones, smart sensors, etc. Operating under gestalt-inspired scenarios in SGL initially injected from any points, these systems can be effectively converted into goal-driven spatial machines (rather than computers as dealing with physical matter too) capable of responding to numerous challenges caused by growing world dynamics in the 21st century. Including numerous practical e...

Mapping spatial patterns of people's risk perception of landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Kofler, Christian; Pedoth, Lydia; Elzbieta Stawinoga, Agnieszka; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

2016-04-01

The resilience of communities against natural hazards is largely influenced by how the individuals perceive risk. A good understanding of people's risk perception, awareness and hazard knowledge is crucial for developing and improving risk management and communication strategies between authorities and the affected population. A lot of research has been done in investigating the social aspects of risks to natural hazards by means of interviews or questionnaires. However, there is still a lack of research in the investigation of the influence of the spatial distance to a hazard event on peoples risk perception. While the spatial dimension of a natural hazard event is always assessed in works with a natural science approach, it is often neglected in works on social aspects of natural hazards. In the present study, we aimed to overcome these gaps by combining methods from different disciplines and assessing and mapping the spatial pattern of risk perception through multivariate statistical approaches based on empirical data from questionnaires. We will present results from a case study carried out in Badia, located in the Province of South Tyrol- Italy, where in December 2012 a landslide destroyed four residential buildings and led to the evacuation of 36 people. By means of questionnaires distributed to all adults living in the case study area we assessed people's risk perception and asked respondents to allocate their place of residence on a map of the case study area subdivided in 7 zones. Based on the data of the questionnaire results we developed a risk perception factor in order to express various assessed aspects linked to risk perception with one metric. We analyzed and mapped this factor according to the different zones reflecting the spatial distance to the event. Furthermore, a cluster analysis identified various risk behavior profiles within the population. We also investigated the spatial patterns of these risk profiles. We revealed that the residential

A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

2015-12-18

In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

The flood risk management plan: towards spatial water governance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartmann, T.; Driessen, P.

2017-01-01

The flood risk management plan challenges both water engineers and spatial planners. It calls for a new mode of governance for flood risk management. This contribution analyses how this mode of governance distinguishes from prevalent approaches. Spatial planning and water management in Europe are

Preliminary results of spatially resolved ECR ion beam profile investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panitzsch, L.; Stalder, M.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R.F.

2012-01-01

The profile of an ion beam produced in an Electron Cyclotron Resonance Ion Source (ECRIS) can vary greatly depending on the source settings and the ion-optical tuning. Strongly focussed ion beams form circular structures (hollow beams) as predicted by simulations and observed in experiments. Each of the rings is predicted to be dominated by ions with same or at least similar m/q-ratios due to ion-optical effects. To check this we performed a series of preliminary investigations to test the required tuning capabilities of our ion source. This includes beam focussing (A) and beam steering (B) using a 3D-movable extraction. Having tuned the source to deliver a beam of strongly focussed ions of different ion species and having steered this beam to match the transmittance area of the sector magnet we also recorded the ion charge state distribution of the strongly focussed beam profile at different, spatially limited positions (C). The preliminary results will be introduced within this paper: it appears that our 3D-movable extraction is very efficient to steer and to focus the beam strongly. The paper is followed by the slides of the presentation. (authors)

Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

Science.gov (United States)

Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

2018-02-01

Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

Spatial implications of covariate adjustment on patterns of risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sabel, Clive Eric; Wilson, Jeff Gaines; Kingham, Simon

2007-01-01

Epidemiological studies that examine the relationship between environmental exposures and health often address other determinants of health that may influence the relationship being studied by adjusting for these factors as covariates. While disease surveillance methods routinely control...... for covariates such as deprivation, there has been limited investigative work on the spatial movement of risk at the intraurban scale due to the adjustment. It is important that the nature of any spatial relocation be well understood as a relocation to areas of increased risk may also introduce additional...... localised factors that influence the exposure-response relationship. This paper examines the spatial patterns of relative risk and clusters of hospitalisations based on an illustrative small-area example from Christchurch, New Zealand. A four-stage test of the spatial relocation effects of covariate...

SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF CEARÁ’S COCONUT PRODUCTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leandro Vieira Cavalcante

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this article is to discuss the spatial dynamics of coconut production in the State of Ceará (Brazil while highlighting the spatialization of this process and the characterization of the coconut production spaces in Ceará’s territory. It also debates the effect agricultural activity has on the space production process, empirically evidenced from the coconut cultivation analysis.

A spatial scan statistic for nonisotropic two-level risk cluster.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiao-Zhou; Wang, Jin-Feng; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Li, Zhong-Jie; Lai, Sheng-Jie

2012-01-30

Spatial scan statistic methods are commonly used for geographical disease surveillance and cluster detection. The standard spatial scan statistic does not model any variability in the underlying risks of subregions belonging to a detected cluster. For a multilevel risk cluster, the isotonic spatial scan statistic could model a centralized high-risk kernel in the cluster. Because variations in disease risks are anisotropic owing to different social, economical, or transport factors, the real high-risk kernel will not necessarily take the central place in a whole cluster area. We propose a spatial scan statistic for a nonisotropic two-level risk cluster, which could be used to detect a whole cluster and a noncentralized high-risk kernel within the cluster simultaneously. The performance of the three methods was evaluated through an intensive simulation study. Our proposed nonisotropic two-level method showed better power and geographical precision with two-level risk cluster scenarios, especially for a noncentralized high-risk kernel. Our proposed method is illustrated using the hand-foot-mouth disease data in Pingdu City, Shandong, China in May 2009, compared with two other methods. In this practical study, the nonisotropic two-level method is the only way to precisely detect a high-risk area in a detected whole cluster. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Extinction threshold for spatial forest dynamics with height structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Domingo, Josep L; Saldaña, Joan

2011-05-07

We present a pair-approximation model for spatial forest dynamics defined on a regular lattice. The model assumes three possible states for a lattice site: empty (gap site), occupied by an immature tree, and occupied by a mature tree, and considers three nonlinearities in the dynamics associated to the processes of light interference, gap expansion, and recruitment. We obtain an expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) which, in contrast to the one obtained under the mean-field approach, uses information about the spatial arrangement of individuals close to extinction. Moreover, we analyze the corresponding survival-extinction transition of the forest and the spatial correlations among gaps, immature and mature trees close to this critical point. Predictions of the pair-approximation model are compared with those of a cellular automaton. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generation and dynamics of quadratic birefringent spatial gap solitons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anghel-Vasilescu, P.; Dorignac, J.; Geniet, F.; Leon, J.; Taki, A.

2011-01-01

A method is proposed to generate and study the dynamics of spatial light solitons in a birefringent medium with quadratic nonlinearity. Although no analytical expression for propagating solitons has been obtained, our numerical simulations show the existence of stable localized spatial solitons in the frequency forbidden band gap of the medium. The dynamics of these objects is quite rich and manifests for instance elastic reflections, or inelastic collisions where two solitons merge and propagate as a single solitary wave. We derive the dynamics of the slowly varying envelopes of the three fields (second harmonic pump and two-component signal) and study this new system theoretically. We show that it does present a threshold for nonlinear supratransmission that can be calculated from a series expansion approach with a very high accuracy. Specific physical implications of our theoretical predictions are illustrated on LiGaTe 2 (LGT) crystals. Once irradiated by a cw laser beam of 10 μm wavelength, at an incidence beyond the extinction angle, such crystals will transmit light, in the form of spatial solitons generated in the nonlinear regime above the nonlinear supratransmission threshold.

Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

1991-01-01

This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.

Science.gov (United States)

Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P

2015-03-01

System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.

Spatial effect on stochastic dynamics of bistable evolutionary games

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

So, Kohaku H Z; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Kato, Takeo

2014-01-01

We consider the lifetimes of metastable states in bistable evolutionary games (coordination games), and examine how they are affected by spatial structure. A semiclassical approximation based on a path integral method is applied to stochastic evolutionary game dynamics with and without spatial structure, and the lifetimes of the metastable states are evaluated. It is shown that the population dependence of the lifetimes is qualitatively different in these two models. Our result indicates that spatial structure can accelerate the transitions between metastable states. (paper)

Spatial Dynamics of Indoor Radio Wideband Channels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hayar Aawatif

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The multipath components of superwideband (2–17.2 GHz nonline-of-sight channel responses measured inside several buildings are stable along sections that are 27 cm long on average with a standard deviation of 16 cm. The stability regions of multipath components have an approximately log-normal histogram. An analysis of measured channels that explicitly includes finite spatial areas of visibility of the multipath components is superior to the classic analysis that attributes spatial dynamics to interference of the multipath. The spatial stability of measured responses, that is, the size of the typical area of visibility of each multipath component, decreases as the carrier frequency increases but does not depend on bandwidth. The results offer insight into the nature of the diffuse part of the radio channel.

Optical wall dynamics induced by coexistence of monostable and bistable spatial regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Odent, V; Louvergneaux, E; Clerc, M G; Andrade-Silva, I

2016-11-01

When nonequilibrium extended homogeneous systems exhibit multistability, it leads to the presence of domain walls between the existing equilibria. Depending on the stability of the steady states, the dynamics differs. Here, we consider the interface dynamics in the case of a spatially inhomogeneous system, namely, an optical system where the control parameter is spatially Gaussian. Then interfaces connect the monostable and the bistable nonuniform states that are associated with two distinct spatial regions. The coexistence of these two regions of different stability induces relaxation dynamics and the propagation of a wall with a time-dependent speed. We emphasize analytically these two dynamical behaviors using a generic bistable model. Experimentally, an inhomogeneous Gaussian light beam traveling through either a dye-doped liquid crystal cell or a Kerr cavity depicts these behaviors, in agreement with the theoretical predictions.

Role of density modulation in the spatially resolved dynamics of strongly confined liquids.

Science.gov (United States)

Saw, Shibu; Dasgupta, Chandan

2016-08-07

Confinement by walls usually produces a strong modulation in the density of dense liquids near the walls. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we examine the effects of the density modulation on the spatially resolved dynamics of a liquid confined between two parallel walls, using a resolution of a fraction of the interparticle distance in the liquid. The local dynamics is quantified by the relaxation time associated with the temporal autocorrelation function of the local density. We find that this local relaxation time varies in phase with the density modulation. The amplitude of the spatial modulation of the relaxation time can be quite large, depending on the characteristics of the wall and thermodynamic parameters of the liquid. To disentangle the effects of confinement and density modulation on the spatially resolved dynamics, we compare the dynamics of a confined liquid with that of an unconfined one in which a similar density modulation is induced by an external potential. We find several differences indicating that density modulation alone cannot account for all the features seen in the spatially resolved dynamics of confined liquids. We also examine how the dynamics near a wall depends on the separation between the two walls and show that the features seen in our simulations persist in the limit of large wall separation.

Preliminary results of statistical dynamic experiments on a heat exchanger

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corran, E.R.; Cummins, J.D.

1962-10-01

The inherent noise signals present in a heat exchanger have been recorded and analysed in order to determine some of the statistical dynamic characteristics of the heat exchanger. These preliminary results show that the primary side temperature frequency response may be determined by analysing the inherent noise. The secondary side temperature frequency response and cross coupled temperature frequency responses between primary and secondary are poorly determined because of the presence of a non-stationary noise source in the secondary circuit of this heat exchanger. This may be overcome by correlating the dependent variables with an externally applied noise signal. Some preliminary experiments with an externally applied random telegraph type of signal are reported. (author)

Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatem Andrew J

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS and Geographical Information Systems (GIS in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing

The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gething Peter W

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution, LandScan (~1 km, UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km, and GPW3 (~5 km. More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

Temporal dynamics of divided spatial attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Itthipuripat, Sirawaj; Garcia, Javier O; Serences, John T

2013-05-01

In naturalistic settings, observers often have to monitor multiple objects dispersed throughout the visual scene. However, the degree to which spatial attention can be divided across spatially noncontiguous objects has long been debated, particularly when those objects are in close proximity. Moreover, the temporal dynamics of divided attention are unclear: is the process of dividing spatial attention gradual and continuous, or does it onset in a discrete manner? To address these issues, we recorded steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEPs) as subjects covertly monitored two flickering targets while ignoring an intervening distractor that flickered at a different frequency. All three stimuli were clustered within either the lower left or the lower right quadrant, and our dependent measure was SSVEP power at the target and distractor frequencies measured over time. In two experiments, we observed a temporally discrete increase in power for target- vs. distractor-evoked SSVEPs extending from ∼350 to 150 ms prior to correct (but not incorrect) responses. The divergence in SSVEP power immediately prior to a correct response suggests that spatial attention can be divided across noncontiguous locations, even when the targets are closely spaced within a single quadrant. In addition, the division of spatial attention appears to be relatively discrete, as opposed to slow and continuous. Finally, the predictive relationship between SSVEP power and behavior demonstrates that these neurophysiological measures of divided attention are meaningfully related to cognitive function.

Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2014-03-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin

2018-03-25

Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life-history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco-evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within-individual and among-individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life-history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal-tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within-population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year-round residence, generating diverse forms of 'partial migration' spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year-round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio-temporal population dynamics, we define a 'partially migratory meta-population' system as a spatially structured set of locations that can

Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mauricio Santos-Vega

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria.Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors.Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a

Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Bouma, Menno J; Kohli, Vijay; Pascual, Mercedes

2016-12-01

The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria. Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors. Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more

The spatial dynamics of dengue virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piraya Bhoomiboonchoo

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Dengue is endemic to the rural province of Kamphaeng Phet, Northern Thailand. A decade of prospective cohort studies has provided important insights into the dengue viruses and their generated disease. However, as elsewhere, spatial dynamics of the pathogen remain poorly understood. In particular, the spatial scale of transmission and the scale of clustering are poorly characterized. This information is critical for effective deployment of spatially targeted interventions and for understanding the mechanisms that drive the dispersal of the virus.We geocoded the home locations of 4,768 confirmed dengue cases admitted to the main hospital in Kamphaeng Phet province between 1994 and 2008. We used the phi clustering statistic to characterize short-term spatial dependence between cases. Further, to see if clustering of cases led to similar temporal patterns of disease across villages, we calculated the correlation in the long-term epidemic curves between communities. We found that cases were 2.9 times (95% confidence interval 2.7-3.2 more likely to live in the same village and be infected within the same month than expected given the underlying spatial and temporal distribution of cases. This fell to 1.4 times (1.2-1.7 for individuals living in villages 1 km apart. Significant clustering was observed up to 5 km. We found a steadily decreasing trend in the correlation in epidemics curves by distance: communities separated by up to 5 km had a mean correlation of 0.28 falling to 0.16 for communities separated between 20 km and 25 km. A potential explanation for these patterns is a role for human movement in spreading the pathogen between communities. Gravity style models, which attempt to capture population movement, outperformed competing models in describing the observed correlations.There exists significant short-term clustering of cases within individual villages. Effective spatially and temporally targeted interventions deployed within villages may

A stage-structured, spatially explicit migration model for Myotis bats: mortality location affects system dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, Richard A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Russell, Robin E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.

2014-01-01

Bats are ecologically and economically important species because they consume insects, transport nutrients, and pollinate flowers.  Many species of bats, including those in the Myotis genus, are facing population decline and increased extinction risk.  Despite these conservation concerns, few models exist for providing insight into the population dynamics of bats in a spatially explicit context.  We developed a model for bats by considering the stage-structured colonial life history of Myotis bats with their annual migration behavior.  This model provided insight into network dynamics.  We specifically focused on two Myotis species living in the eastern United States: the Indiana bat (M. sodalis), which is a Federally listed endangered species, and the little brown bat (M. lucifugus), which is under consideration for listing as an endangered species.  We found that multiple equilibria exist for the local, migratory subpopulations even though the total population was constant.  These equilibria suggest the location and magnitude of stressors such as White-nose Syndrome, meteorological phenomena, or impacts of wind turbines on survival influence system dynamics and risk of population extirpation in difficult to predict ways.

Complex spatial dynamics of oncolytic viruses in vitro: mathematical and experimental approaches.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dominik Wodarz

Full Text Available Oncolytic viruses replicate selectively in tumor cells and can serve as targeted treatment agents. While promising results have been observed in clinical trials, consistent success of therapy remains elusive. The dynamics of virus spread through tumor cell populations has been studied both experimentally and computationally. However, a basic understanding of the principles underlying virus spread in spatially structured target cell populations has yet to be obtained. This paper studies such dynamics, using a newly constructed recombinant adenovirus type-5 (Ad5 that expresses enhanced jellyfish green fluorescent protein (EGFP, AdEGFPuci, and grows on human 293 embryonic kidney epithelial cells, allowing us to track cell numbers and spatial patterns over time. The cells are arranged in a two-dimensional setting and allow virus spread to occur only to target cells within the local neighborhood. Despite the simplicity of the setup, complex dynamics are observed. Experiments gave rise to three spatial patterns that we call "hollow ring structure", "filled ring structure", and "disperse pattern". An agent-based, stochastic computational model is used to simulate and interpret the experiments. The model can reproduce the experimentally observed patterns, and identifies key parameters that determine which pattern of virus growth arises. The model is further used to study the long-term outcome of the dynamics for the different growth patterns, and to investigate conditions under which the virus population eliminates the target cells. We find that both the filled ring structure and disperse pattern of initial expansion are indicative of treatment failure, where target cells persist in the long run. The hollow ring structure is associated with either target cell extinction or low-level persistence, both of which can be viewed as treatment success. Interestingly, it is found that equilibrium properties of ordinary differential equations describing the

Backyard housing in Gauteng: An analysis of spatial dynamics

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Backyard housing in Gauteng: An analysis of spatial dynamics. Yasmin Shapurjee ... Drawing on quantitative geo-demographic data from GeoTerraImage (GTI). (2010), Knowledge .... a fundamental role in absorbing demand for low-income ...

Dynamic jump intensities and risk premiums

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Ornthanalai, Chayawat; Jacobs, Kris

2012-01-01

We build a new class of discrete-time models that are relatively easy to estimate using returns and/or options. The distribution of returns is driven by two factors: dynamic volatility and dynamic jump intensity. Each factor has its own risk premium. The models significantly outperform standard...... models without jumps when estimated on S&P500 returns. We find very strong support for time-varying jump intensities. Compared to the risk premium on dynamic volatility, the risk premium on the dynamic jump intensity has a much larger impact on option prices. We confirm these findings using joint...

A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com

2013-10-15

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management

Spatial modelling of malaria risk factors in Ruhuha sector in the east ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Spatial clusters of malaria occurrence were subsequently determined using Getis and Ord spatial statistics. This cluster analysis showed that malaria distribution is characterized by zones with high malaria risk, so called hot spots, zones with moderate malaria risk known as not significant spots and zones of low malaria risk ...

Human seizures couple across spatial scales through travelling wave dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Martinet, L.-E.; Fiddyment, G.; Madsen, J. R.; Eskandar, E. N.; Truccolo, W.; Eden, U. T.; Cash, S. S.; Kramer, M. A.

2017-04-01

Epilepsy--the propensity toward recurrent, unprovoked seizures--is a devastating disease affecting 65 million people worldwide. Understanding and treating this disease remains a challenge, as seizures manifest through mechanisms and features that span spatial and temporal scales. Here we address this challenge through the analysis and modelling of human brain voltage activity recorded simultaneously across microscopic and macroscopic spatial scales. We show that during seizure large-scale neural populations spanning centimetres of cortex coordinate with small neural groups spanning cortical columns, and provide evidence that rapidly propagating waves of activity underlie this increased inter-scale coupling. We develop a corresponding computational model to propose specific mechanisms--namely, the effects of an increased extracellular potassium concentration diffusing in space--that support the observed spatiotemporal dynamics. Understanding the multi-scale, spatiotemporal dynamics of human seizures--and connecting these dynamics to specific biological mechanisms--promises new insights to treat this devastating disease.

GSHR-Tree: a spatial index tree based on dynamic spatial slot and hash table in grid environments

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zhanlong; Wu, Xin-cai; Wu, Liang

2008-12-01

Computation Grids enable the coordinated sharing of large-scale distributed heterogeneous computing resources that can be used to solve computationally intensive problems in science, engineering, and commerce. Grid spatial applications are made possible by high-speed networks and a new generation of Grid middleware that resides between networks and traditional GIS applications. The integration of the multi-sources and heterogeneous spatial information and the management of the distributed spatial resources and the sharing and cooperative of the spatial data and Grid services are the key problems to resolve in the development of the Grid GIS. The performance of the spatial index mechanism is the key technology of the Grid GIS and spatial database affects the holistic performance of the GIS in Grid Environments. In order to improve the efficiency of parallel processing of a spatial mass data under the distributed parallel computing grid environment, this paper presents a new grid slot hash parallel spatial index GSHR-Tree structure established in the parallel spatial indexing mechanism. Based on the hash table and dynamic spatial slot, this paper has improved the structure of the classical parallel R tree index. The GSHR-Tree index makes full use of the good qualities of R-Tree and hash data structure. This paper has constructed a new parallel spatial index that can meet the needs of parallel grid computing about the magnanimous spatial data in the distributed network. This arithmetic splits space in to multi-slots by multiplying and reverting and maps these slots to sites in distributed and parallel system. Each sites constructs the spatial objects in its spatial slot into an R tree. On the basis of this tree structure, the index data was distributed among multiple nodes in the grid networks by using large node R-tree method. The unbalance during process can be quickly adjusted by means of a dynamical adjusting algorithm. This tree structure has considered the

Multi-scale dynamical behavior of spatially distributed systems: a deterministic point of view

Science.gov (United States)

Mangiarotti, S.; Le Jean, F.; Drapeau, L.; Huc, M.

2015-12-01

Physical and biophysical systems are spatially distributed systems. Their behavior can be observed or modelled spatially at various resolutions. In this work, a deterministic point of view is adopted to analyze multi-scale behavior taking a set of ordinary differential equation (ODE) as elementary part of the system.To perform analyses, scenes of study are thus generated based on ensembles of identical elementary ODE systems. Without any loss of generality, their dynamics is chosen chaotic in order to ensure sensitivity to initial conditions, that is, one fundamental property of atmosphere under instable conditions [1]. The Rössler system [2] is used for this purpose for both its topological and algebraic simplicity [3,4].Two cases are thus considered: the chaotic oscillators composing the scene of study are taken either independent, or in phase synchronization. Scale behaviors are analyzed considering the scene of study as aggregations (basically obtained by spatially averaging the signal) or as associations (obtained by concatenating the time series). The global modeling technique is used to perform the numerical analyses [5].One important result of this work is that, under phase synchronization, a scene of aggregated dynamics can be approximated by the elementary system composing the scene, but modifying its parameterization [6]. This is shown based on numerical analyses. It is then demonstrated analytically and generalized to a larger class of ODE systems. Preliminary applications to cereal crops observed from satellite are also presented.[1] Lorenz, Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141 (1963).[2] Rössler, An equation for continuous chaos, Phys. Lett. A, 57, 397-398 (1976).[3] Gouesbet & Letellier, Global vector-field reconstruction by using a multivariate polynomial L2 approximation on nets, Phys. Rev. E 49, 4955-4972 (1994).[4] Letellier, Roulin & Rössler, Inequivalent topologies of chaos in simple equations, Chaos, Solitons

Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

2014-01-01

The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

Spatially heterogeneous dynamics investigated via a time-dependent four-point density correlation function

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lacevic, N.; Starr, F. W.; Schrøder, Thomas

2003-01-01

correlation function g4(r,t) and corresponding "structure factor" S4(q,t) which measure the spatial correlations between the local liquid density at two points in space, each at two different times, and so are sensitive to dynamical heterogeneity. We study g4(r,t) and S4(q,t) via molecular dynamics......Relaxation in supercooled liquids above their glass transition and below the onset temperature of "slow" dynamics involves the correlated motion of neighboring particles. This correlated motion results in the appearance of spatially heterogeneous dynamics or "dynamical heterogeneity." Traditional...... two-point time-dependent density correlation functions, while providing information about the transient "caging" of particles on cooling, are unable to provide sufficiently detailed information about correlated motion and dynamical heterogeneity. Here, we study a four-point, time-dependent density...

Spatial Dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis in the Autonomous Community of Madrid, Spain (2010–2012)

Science.gov (United States)

de la Cruz, Maria Luisa; Perez, Andres; Bezos, Javier; Pages, Enrique; Casal, Carmen; Carpintero, Jesus; Romero, Beatriz; Dominguez, Lucas; Barker, Christopher M.; Diaz, Rosa; Alvarez, Julio

2014-01-01

Progress in control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is often not uniform, usually due to the effect of one or more sometimes unknown epidemiological factors impairing the success of eradication programs. Use of spatial analysis can help to identify clusters of persistence of disease, leading to the identification of these factors thus allowing the implementation of targeted control measures, and may provide some insights of disease transmission, particularly when combined with molecular typing techniques. Here, the spatial dynamics of bTB in a high prevalence region of Spain were assessed during a three year period (2010–2012) using data from the eradication campaigns to detect clusters of positive bTB herds and of those infected with certain Mycobacterium bovis strains (characterized using spoligotyping and VNTR typing). In addition, the within-herd transmission coefficient (β) was estimated in infected herds and its spatial distribution and association with other potential outbreak and herd variables was evaluated. Significant clustering of positive herds was identified in the three years of the study in the same location (“high risk area”). Three spoligotypes (SB0339, SB0121 and SB1142) accounted for >70% of the outbreaks detected in the three years. VNTR subtyping revealed the presence of few but highly prevalent strains within the high risk area, suggesting maintained transmission in the area. The spatial autocorrelation found in the distribution of the estimated within-herd transmission coefficients in herds located within distances <14 km and the results of the spatial regression analysis, support the hypothesis of shared local factors affecting disease transmission in farms located at a close proximity. PMID:25536514

Abstract spatial concept priming dynamically influences real-world actions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah M Tower-Richardi

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Experienced regularities in our perceptions and actions play important roles in grounding abstract concepts such as social status, time, and emotion. Might we similarly ground abstract spatial concepts in more experienced-based domains? The present experiment explores this possibility by implicitly priming abstract spatial terms (north, south, east, west and then measuring participants’ hand movement trajectories while they respond to a body-referenced spatial target (up, down, left, right in a verbal (Exp. 1 or spatial (Exp. 2 format. Results from two experiments demonstrate temporally-dynamic and prime-biased movement trajectories when the primes are incongruent with the targets (e.g., north – left, west – up. That is, priming abstract coordinate directions influences subsequent actions in response to concrete target directions. These findings provide the first evidence that abstract concepts of world-centered coordinate axes are implicitly understood in the context of concrete body-referenced axes; critically, this abstract-concrete relationship manifests in motor movements, and may have implications for spatial memory organization.

A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

2015-12-15

Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Probing heterogeneous dynamics from spatial density correlation in glass-forming liquids.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yan-Wei; Zhu, You-Liang; Sun, Zhao-Yan

2016-12-01

We numerically investigate the connection between spatial density correlation and dynamical heterogeneity in glass-forming liquids. We demonstrate that the cluster size defined by the spatial aggregation of densely packed particles (DPPs) can better capture the difference between the dynamics of the Lennard-Jones glass model and the Weeks-Chandler-Andersen truncation model than the commonly used pair correlation functions. More interestingly, we compare the mobility of DPPs and loosely packed particles, and we find that high local density correlates well with slow dynamics in systems with relatively hard repulsive interactions but links to mobile ones in the system with soft repulsive interactions at one relaxation time scale. Our results show clear evidence that the above model dependence behavior stems from the hopping motion of DPPs at the end of the caging stage due to the compressive nature of soft repulsive spheres, which activates the dynamics of DPPs in the α relaxation stage.

Using chemistry and microfluidics to understand the spatial dynamics of complex biological networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Kastrup, Christian J; Runyon, Matthew K; Lucchetta, Elena M; Price, Jessica M; Ismagilov, Rustem F

2008-04-01

Understanding the spatial dynamics of biochemical networks is both fundamentally important for understanding life at the systems level and also has practical implications for medicine, engineering, biology, and chemistry. Studies at the level of individual reactions provide essential information about the function, interactions, and localization of individual molecular species and reactions in a network. However, analyzing the spatial dynamics of complex biochemical networks at this level is difficult. Biochemical networks are nonequilibrium systems containing dozens to hundreds of reactions with nonlinear and time-dependent interactions, and these interactions are influenced by diffusion, flow, and the relative values of state-dependent kinetic parameters. To achieve an overall understanding of the spatial dynamics of a network and the global mechanisms that drive its function, networks must be analyzed as a whole, where all of the components and influential parameters of a network are simultaneously considered. Here, we describe chemical concepts and microfluidic tools developed for network-level investigations of the spatial dynamics of these networks. Modular approaches can be used to simplify these networks by separating them into modules, and simple experimental or computational models can be created by replacing each module with a single reaction. Microfluidics can be used to implement these models as well as to analyze and perturb the complex network itself with spatial control on the micrometer scale. We also describe the application of these network-level approaches to elucidate the mechanisms governing the spatial dynamics of two networkshemostasis (blood clotting) and early patterning of the Drosophila embryo. To investigate the dynamics of the complex network of hemostasis, we simplified the network by using a modular mechanism and created a chemical model based on this mechanism by using microfluidics. Then, we used the mechanism and the model to

Classifying and comparing spatial models of fire dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan

2007-01-01

Wildland fire is a significant disturbance in many ecosystems worldwide and the interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans has major effects on vegetation dynamics, ecosystem carbon budgets, and patterns of biodiversity. Landscape-Fire-Succession Models (LFSMs) that simulate the linked processes of fire and vegetation development in a spatial...

Potential and flux field landscape theory. II. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics of spatially inhomogeneous stochastic dynamical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Wei; Wang, Jin

2014-01-01

We have established a general non-equilibrium thermodynamic formalism consistently applicable to both spatially homogeneous and, more importantly, spatially inhomogeneous systems, governed by the Langevin and Fokker-Planck stochastic dynamics with multiple state transition mechanisms, using the potential-flux landscape framework as a bridge connecting stochastic dynamics with non-equilibrium thermodynamics. A set of non-equilibrium thermodynamic equations, quantifying the relations of the non-equilibrium entropy, entropy flow, entropy production, and other thermodynamic quantities, together with their specific expressions, is constructed from a set of dynamical decomposition equations associated with the potential-flux landscape framework. The flux velocity plays a pivotal role on both the dynamic and thermodynamic levels. On the dynamic level, it represents a dynamic force breaking detailed balance, entailing the dynamical decomposition equations. On the thermodynamic level, it represents a thermodynamic force generating entropy production, manifested in the non-equilibrium thermodynamic equations. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and more specific examples, the spatial stochastic neuronal model, in particular, are studied to test and illustrate the general theory. This theoretical framework is particularly suitable to study the non-equilibrium (thermo)dynamics of spatially inhomogeneous systems abundant in nature. This paper is the second of a series

Spatial Correlation of PAN UWB-MIMO Channel Including User Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Yu; Kovacs, Istvan Zsolt; Pedersen, Gert Frølund

. It is found the channel shows spatial correlated wideband power, and spatial uncorrelated complex channel coefficients at different frequencies and delays with respect to a correlation coefficient threshold of 0.7. The Kronecker model is proved not suitable for the investigated scenarios. The MIMO UWB channel......In this paper we present and analyze spatial correlation properties of indoor 4x2 MIMO UWB channels in personal area network (PAN) scenarios. The presented results are based on measurement of radio links between an access point like device and a hand held or belt mounted device with dynamic user...

Spatial scale effects in environmental risk-factor modelling for diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ram K. Raghavan

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Studies attempting to identify environmental risk factors for diseases can be seen to extract candidate variables from remotely sensed datasets, using a single buffer-zone surrounding locations from where disease status are recorded. A retrospective case-control study using canine leptospirosis data was conducted to verify the effects of changing buffer-zones (spatial extents on the risk factors derived. The case-control study included 94 case dogs predominantly selected based on positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR test for leptospires in urine, and 185 control dogs based on negative PCR. Land cover features from National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD and Kansas Gap Analysis Program (KS GAP around geocoded addresses of cases/controls were extracted using multiple buffers at every 500 m up to 5,000 m, and multivariable logistic models were used to estimate the risk of different land cover variables to dogs. The types and statistical significance of risk factors identified changed with an increase in spatial extent in both datasets. Leptospirosis status in dogs was significantly associated with developed high-intensity areas in models that used variables extracted from spatial extents of 500-2000 m, developed medium-intensity areas beyond 2,000 m and up to 3,000 m, and evergreen forests beyond 3,500 m and up to 5,000 m in individual models in the NLCD. Significant associations were seen in urban areas in models that used variables extracted from spatial extents of 500-2,500 m and forest/woodland areas beyond 2,500 m and up to 5,000 m in individual models in Kansas gap analysis programme datasets. The use of ad hoc spatial extents can be misleading or wrong, and the determination of an appropriate spatial extent is critical when extracting environmental variables for studies. Potential work-arounds for this problem are discussed.

GIS and Geodatabase Disaster Risk for Spatial Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Hendriawan Nur, Wawan; Kumoro, Yugo; Susilowati, Yuliana

2018-02-01

The spatial planning in Indonesia needs to consider the information on the potential disaster. That is because disaster is a serious and detrimental problem that often occurs and causes casualties in some areas in Indonesia as well as inhibits the development. Various models and research were developed to calculate disaster risk assessment. GIS is a system for assembling, storing, analyzing, and displaying geographically referenced disaster. The information can be collaborated with geodatabases to model and to estimate disaster risk in an automated way. It also offers the possibility to customize most of the parameters used in the models. This paper describes a framework which can improve GIS and Geodatabase for the vulnerability, capacity or disaster risk assessment to support the spatial planning activities so they can be more adaptable. By using this framework, GIS application can be used in any location by adjusting variables or calculation methods without changing or rebuilding system from scratch.

Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tyrväinen, T.

2013-01-01

This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

Spatial clustering and local risk of leprosy in São Paulo, Brazil.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Although the detection rate is decreasing, the proportion of new cases with WHO grade 2 disability (G2D is increasing, creating concern among policy makers and the Brazilian government. This study aimed to identify spatial clustering of leprosy and classify high-risk areas in a major leprosy cluster using the SatScan method.Data were obtained including all leprosy cases diagnosed between January 2006 and December 2013. In addition to the clinical variable, information was also gathered regarding the G2D of the patient at diagnosis and after treatment. The Scan Spatial statistic test, developed by Kulldorff e Nagarwalla, was used to identify spatial clustering and to measure the local risk (Relative Risk-RR of leprosy. Maps considering these risks and their confidence intervals were constructed.A total of 434 cases were identified, including 188 (43.31% borderline leprosy and 101 (23.28% lepromatous leprosy cases. There was a predominance of males, with ages ranging from 15 to 59 years, and 51 patients (11.75% presented G2D. Two significant spatial clusters and three significant spatial-temporal clusters were also observed. The main spatial cluster (p = 0.000 contained 90 census tracts, a population of approximately 58,438 inhabitants, detection rate of 22.6 cases per 100,000 people and RR of approximately 3.41 (95%CI = 2.721-4.267. Regarding the spatial-temporal clusters, two clusters were observed, with RR ranging between 24.35 (95%CI = 11.133-52.984 and 15.24 (95%CI = 10.114-22.919.These findings could contribute to improvements in policies and programming, aiming for the eradication of leprosy in Brazil. The Spatial Scan statistic test was found to be an interesting resource for health managers and healthcare professionals to map the vulnerability of areas in terms of leprosy transmission risk and areas of underreporting.

Spatial clustering and local risk of leprosy in São Paulo, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Antônio Carlos Vieira; Yamamura, Mellina; Arroyo, Luiz Henrique; Popolin, Marcela Paschoal; Chiaravalloti Neto, Francisco; Palha, Pedro Fredemir; Uchoa, Severina Alice da Costa; Pieri, Flávia Meneguetti; Pinto, Ione Carvalho; Fiorati, Regina Célia; Queiroz, Ana Angélica Rêgo de; Belchior, Aylana de Souza; Dos Santos, Danielle Talita; Garcia, Maria Concebida da Cunha; Crispim, Juliane de Almeida; Alves, Luana Seles; Berra, Thaís Zamboni; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre

2017-02-01

Although the detection rate is decreasing, the proportion of new cases with WHO grade 2 disability (G2D) is increasing, creating concern among policy makers and the Brazilian government. This study aimed to identify spatial clustering of leprosy and classify high-risk areas in a major leprosy cluster using the SatScan method. Data were obtained including all leprosy cases diagnosed between January 2006 and December 2013. In addition to the clinical variable, information was also gathered regarding the G2D of the patient at diagnosis and after treatment. The Scan Spatial statistic test, developed by Kulldorff e Nagarwalla, was used to identify spatial clustering and to measure the local risk (Relative Risk-RR) of leprosy. Maps considering these risks and their confidence intervals were constructed. A total of 434 cases were identified, including 188 (43.31%) borderline leprosy and 101 (23.28%) lepromatous leprosy cases. There was a predominance of males, with ages ranging from 15 to 59 years, and 51 patients (11.75%) presented G2D. Two significant spatial clusters and three significant spatial-temporal clusters were also observed. The main spatial cluster (p = 0.000) contained 90 census tracts, a population of approximately 58,438 inhabitants, detection rate of 22.6 cases per 100,000 people and RR of approximately 3.41 (95%CI = 2.721-4.267). Regarding the spatial-temporal clusters, two clusters were observed, with RR ranging between 24.35 (95%CI = 11.133-52.984) and 15.24 (95%CI = 10.114-22.919). These findings could contribute to improvements in policies and programming, aiming for the eradication of leprosy in Brazil. The Spatial Scan statistic test was found to be an interesting resource for health managers and healthcare professionals to map the vulnerability of areas in terms of leprosy transmission risk and areas of underreporting.

Preliminary results of an oilspill risk analysis for the Bombay High Region

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mascarenhas, A.A.M.Q.; Gouveia, A.D.; Sitaraman, R.

oil were analysed, covering estimates of the time between spill occurrence and contact with resources. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with production within the developmental area. Preliminary results...

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Mass Mortalities in Oysters Is Influenced by Energetic Reserves and Food Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Pernet, Fabrice; Lagarde, Franck; Jeannée, Nicolas; Daigle, Gaetan; Barret, Jean; Le Gall, Patrik; Quere, Claudie; D’orbcastel, Emmanuelle Roque

2014-01-01

Although spatial studies of diseases on land have a long history, far fewer have been made on aquatic diseases. Here, we present the first large-scale, high-resolution spatial and temporal representation of a mass mortality phenomenon cause by the Ostreid herpesvirus (OsHV-1) that has affected oysters (Crassostrea gigas) every year since 2008, in relation to their energetic reserves and the quality of their food. Disease mortality was investigated in healthy oysters deployed at 106 locations in the Thau Mediterranean lagoon before the start of the epizootic in spring 2011. We found that disease mortality of oysters showed strong spatial dependence clearly reflecting the epizootic process of local transmission. Disease initiated inside oyster farms spread rapidly beyond these areas. Local differences in energetic condition of oysters, partly driven by variation in food quality, played a significant role in the spatial and temporal dynamics of disease mortality. In particular, the relative contribution of diatoms to the diet of oysters was positively correlated with their energetic reserves, which in turn decreased the risk of disease mortality. PMID:24551106

Spatial and temporal dynamics of mass mortalities in oysters is influenced by energetic reserves and food quality.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabrice Pernet

Full Text Available Although spatial studies of diseases on land have a long history, far fewer have been made on aquatic diseases. Here, we present the first large-scale, high-resolution spatial and temporal representation of a mass mortality phenomenon cause by the Ostreid herpesvirus (OsHV-1 that has affected oysters (Crassostrea gigas every year since 2008, in relation to their energetic reserves and the quality of their food. Disease mortality was investigated in healthy oysters deployed at 106 locations in the Thau Mediterranean lagoon before the start of the epizootic in spring 2011. We found that disease mortality of oysters showed strong spatial dependence clearly reflecting the epizootic process of local transmission. Disease initiated inside oyster farms spread rapidly beyond these areas. Local differences in energetic condition of oysters, partly driven by variation in food quality, played a significant role in the spatial and temporal dynamics of disease mortality. In particular, the relative contribution of diatoms to the diet of oysters was positively correlated with their energetic reserves, which in turn decreased the risk of disease mortality.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of mass mortalities in oysters is influenced by energetic reserves and food quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Pernet, Fabrice; Lagarde, Franck; Jeannée, Nicolas; Daigle, Gaetan; Barret, Jean; Le Gall, Patrik; Quere, Claudie; D'orbcastel, Emmanuelle Roque

2014-01-01

Although spatial studies of diseases on land have a long history, far fewer have been made on aquatic diseases. Here, we present the first large-scale, high-resolution spatial and temporal representation of a mass mortality phenomenon cause by the Ostreid herpesvirus (OsHV-1) that has affected oysters (Crassostrea gigas) every year since 2008, in relation to their energetic reserves and the quality of their food. Disease mortality was investigated in healthy oysters deployed at 106 locations in the Thau Mediterranean lagoon before the start of the epizootic in spring 2011. We found that disease mortality of oysters showed strong spatial dependence clearly reflecting the epizootic process of local transmission. Disease initiated inside oyster farms spread rapidly beyond these areas. Local differences in energetic condition of oysters, partly driven by variation in food quality, played a significant role in the spatial and temporal dynamics of disease mortality. In particular, the relative contribution of diatoms to the diet of oysters was positively correlated with their energetic reserves, which in turn decreased the risk of disease mortality.

Solution strategies as possible explanations of individual and sex differences in a dynamic spatial task.

Science.gov (United States)

Peña, Daniel; Contreras, María José; Shih, Pei Chun; Santacreu, José

2008-05-01

When individuals perform spatial tasks, individual differences emerge in accuracy and speed as well as in the response patterns used to cope with the task. The purpose of this study is to identify, through empirical criteria, the different response patterns or strategies used by individuals when performing the dynamic spatial task presented in the Spatial Orientation Dynamic Test-Revised (SODT-R). Results show that participants can be classified according to their response patterns. Three different ways of solving a task are described, and their relation to (a) performance factors (response latency, response frequency, and invested time) and (b) ability tests (analytical reasoning, verbal reasoning, and spatial estimation) are investigated. Sex differences in response patterns and performance are also analyzed. It is found that the frequency with which men and women employ each one of the strategies described here, is different and statistically significant. Thus, employed strategy plays an important role when interpreting sex differences on dynamic spatial tasks.

Spatial variation in carrier dynamics along a single CdSSe nanowire

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blake, Jolie C.; Eldridge, Peter S.; Gundlach, Lars

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Femtosecond Kerr-gate microscopy allows ultrafast fluorescence measurements along different positions of a single nanowire. • Amplified spontaneous emission observed at high fluences can be used to calculate recombination rates. • Observation of ASE at different locations along a single CdSSe nanowire provides the ability to extract defect densities. - Abstract: Ultrafast charge carrier dynamics along individual CdS x Se 1−x nanowires has been measured. The use of an improved ultrafast Kerr-gated microscope allows for spatially resolved luminescence measurements along a single nanowire. Amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) was observed at high excitation fluences. Position dependent variations of ultrafast ASE dynamics were observed. SEM and colorimetric measurements showed that the difference in dynamics can be attributed to variations in non-radiative recombination rates along the wire. The dominant Shockley-Read recombination rate can be extracted from ASE dynamics and can be directly related to charge carrier mobility and defect density. Employing ASE as a probe for defect densities provides a new sub-micron spatially resolved, contactless method for measurements of charge carrier mobility

Spatial Optimization of Future Urban Development with Regards to Climate Risk and Sustainability Objectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Caparros-Midwood, Daniel; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

2017-11-01

Future development in cities needs to manage increasing populations, climate-related risks, and sustainable development objectives such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Planners therefore face a challenge of multidimensional, spatial optimization in order to balance potential tradeoffs and maximize synergies between risks and other objectives. To address this, a spatial optimization framework has been developed. This uses a spatially implemented genetic algorithm to generate a set of Pareto-optimal results that provide planners with the best set of trade-off spatial plans for six risk and sustainability objectives: (i) minimize heat risks, (ii) minimize flooding risks, (iii) minimize transport travel costs to minimize associated emissions, (iv) maximize brownfield development, (v) minimize urban sprawl, and (vi) prevent development of greenspace. The framework is applied to Greater London (U.K.) and shown to generate spatial development strategies that are optimal for specific objectives and differ significantly from the existing development strategies. In addition, the analysis reveals tradeoffs between different risks as well as between risk and sustainability objectives. While increases in heat or flood risk can be avoided, there are no strategies that do not increase at least one of these. Tradeoffs between risk and other sustainability objectives can be more severe, for example, minimizing heat risk is only possible if future development is allowed to sprawl significantly. The results highlight the importance of spatial structure in modulating risks and other sustainability objectives. However, not all planning objectives are suited to quantified optimization and so the results should form part of an evidence base to improve the delivery of risk and sustainability management in future urban development. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

Science.gov (United States)

Pinzon, Jorge E.

2010-01-01

This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

Science.gov (United States)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

A hybrid computer simulation of reactor spatial dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hinds, H.W.

1977-08-01

The partial differential equations describing the one-speed spatial dynamics of thermal neutron reactors were converted to a set of ordinary differential equations, using finite-difference approximations for the spatial derivatives. The variables were then normalized to a steady-state reference condition in a novel manner, to yield an equation set particularly suitable for implementation on a hybrid computer. One Applied Dynamics AD/FIVE analog-computer console is capable of solving, all in parallel, up to 30 simultaneous differential equations. This corresponds roughly to eight reactor nodes, each with two active delayed-neutron groups. To improve accuracy, an increase in the number of nodes is usually required. Using the Hsu-Howe multiplexing technique, an 8-node, one-dimensional module was switched back and forth between the left and right halves of the reactor, to simulate a 16-node model, also in one dimension. These two versions (8 or 16 nodes) of the model were tested on benchmark problems of the loss-of-coolant type, which were also solved using the digital code FORSIM, with two energy groups and 26 nodes. Good agreement was obtained between the two solution techniques. (author)

Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.

2013-01-01

Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived

Development of a dynamical systems model of plant programmatic performance on nuclear power plant safety risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hess, Stephen M.; Albano, Alfonso M.; Gaertner, John P.

2005-01-01

Application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques to model nuclear power plant accident sequences has provided a significant contribution to understanding the potential initiating events, equipment failures and operator errors that can lead to core damage accidents. Application of the lessons learned from these analyses has resulted in significant improvements in plant operation and safety. However, this approach has not been nearly as successful in addressing the impact of plant processes and management effectiveness on the risks of plant operation. The research described in this paper presents an alternative approach to addressing this issue. In this paper we propose a dynamical systems model that describes the interaction of important plant processes on nuclear safety risk. We discuss development of the mathematical model including the identification and interpretation of significant inter-process interactions. Next, we review the techniques applicable to analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems that are utilized in the characterization of the model. This is followed by a preliminary analysis of the model that demonstrates that its dynamical evolution displays features that have been observed at commercially operating plants. From this analysis, several significant insights are presented with respect to the effective control of nuclear safety risk. As an important example, analysis of the model dynamics indicates that significant benefits in effectively managing risk are obtained by integrating the plant operation and work management processes such that decisions are made utilizing a multidisciplinary and collaborative approach. We note that although the model was developed specifically to be applicable to nuclear power plants, many of the insights and conclusions obtained are likely applicable to other process industries

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

Micro-scale Spatial Clustering of Cholera Risk Factors in Urban Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Bi, Qifang; Azman, Andrew S; Satter, Syed Moinuddin; Khan, Azharul Islam; Ahmed, Dilruba; Riaj, Altaf Ahmed; Gurley, Emily S; Lessler, Justin

2016-02-01

Close interpersonal contact likely drives spatial clustering of cases of cholera and diarrhea, but spatial clustering of risk factors may also drive this pattern. Few studies have focused specifically on how exposures for disease cluster at small spatial scales. Improving our understanding of the micro-scale clustering of risk factors for cholera may help to target interventions and power studies with cluster designs. We selected sets of spatially matched households (matched-sets) near cholera case households between April and October 2013 in a cholera endemic urban neighborhood of Tongi Township in Bangladesh. We collected data on exposures to suspected cholera risk factors at the household and individual level. We used intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) to characterize clustering of exposures within matched-sets and households, and assessed if clustering depended on the geographical extent of the matched-sets. Clustering over larger spatial scales was explored by assessing the relationship between matched-sets. We also explored whether different exposures tended to appear together in individuals, households, and matched-sets. Household level exposures, including: drinking municipal supplied water (ICC = 0.97, 95%CI = 0.96, 0.98), type of latrine (ICC = 0.88, 95%CI = 0.71, 1.00), and intermittent access to drinking water (ICC = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.87, 1.00) exhibited strong clustering within matched-sets. As the geographic extent of matched-sets increased, the concordance of exposures within matched-sets decreased. Concordance between matched-sets of exposures related to water supply was elevated at distances of up to approximately 400 meters. Household level hygiene practices were correlated with infrastructure shown to increase cholera risk. Co-occurrence of different individual level exposures appeared to mostly reflect the differing domestic roles of study participants. Strong spatial clustering of exposures at a small spatial scale in a cholera endemic

Micro-scale Spatial Clustering of Cholera Risk Factors in Urban Bangladesh.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qifang Bi

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Close interpersonal contact likely drives spatial clustering of cases of cholera and diarrhea, but spatial clustering of risk factors may also drive this pattern. Few studies have focused specifically on how exposures for disease cluster at small spatial scales. Improving our understanding of the micro-scale clustering of risk factors for cholera may help to target interventions and power studies with cluster designs. We selected sets of spatially matched households (matched-sets near cholera case households between April and October 2013 in a cholera endemic urban neighborhood of Tongi Township in Bangladesh. We collected data on exposures to suspected cholera risk factors at the household and individual level. We used intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs to characterize clustering of exposures within matched-sets and households, and assessed if clustering depended on the geographical extent of the matched-sets. Clustering over larger spatial scales was explored by assessing the relationship between matched-sets. We also explored whether different exposures tended to appear together in individuals, households, and matched-sets. Household level exposures, including: drinking municipal supplied water (ICC = 0.97, 95%CI = 0.96, 0.98, type of latrine (ICC = 0.88, 95%CI = 0.71, 1.00, and intermittent access to drinking water (ICC = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.87, 1.00 exhibited strong clustering within matched-sets. As the geographic extent of matched-sets increased, the concordance of exposures within matched-sets decreased. Concordance between matched-sets of exposures related to water supply was elevated at distances of up to approximately 400 meters. Household level hygiene practices were correlated with infrastructure shown to increase cholera risk. Co-occurrence of different individual level exposures appeared to mostly reflect the differing domestic roles of study participants. Strong spatial clustering of exposures at a small spatial scale in a

Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

2006-01-01

The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

Spatial Distribution of Infection Risk of SARS Transmission in a Hospital Ward

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qian, Hua; Li, Yuguo; Nielsen, Peter V.

2009-01-01

The classical Wells-Riley model for predicting risk of airborne transmission of diseases assumes a uniform spatial distribution of the infected cases in an enclosed space. A new mathematical model is developed here for predicting the spatial distribution of infection risk of airborne transmitted ......, such as inpatients in a hospital ward, passengers in an airplane etc....

Detecting abrupt dynamic change based on changes in the fractal properties of spatial images

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qunqun; He, Wenping; Gu, Bin; Jiang, Yundi

2017-10-01

Many abrupt climate change events often cannot be detected timely by conventional abrupt detection methods until a few years after these events have occurred. The reason for this lag in detection is that abundant and long-term observational data are required for accurate abrupt change detection by these methods, especially for the detection of a regime shift. So, these methods cannot help us understand and forecast the evolution of the climate system in a timely manner. Obviously, spatial images, generated by a coupled spatiotemporal dynamical model, contain more information about a dynamic system than a single time series, and we find that spatial images show the fractal properties. The fractal properties of spatial images can be quantitatively characterized by the Hurst exponent, which can be estimated by two-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (TD-DFA). Based on this, TD-DFA is used to detect an abrupt dynamic change of a coupled spatiotemporal model. The results show that the TD-DFA method can effectively detect abrupt parameter changes in the coupled model by monitoring the changing in the fractal properties of spatial images. The present method provides a new way for abrupt dynamic change detection, which can achieve timely and efficient abrupt change detection results.

Positive Analysis of Invasive Species Control as a Dynamic Spatial Process

OpenAIRE

Buyuktahtakin, Esra; Feng, Zhuo; Olsson, Aaryn; Frisvold, George B.; Szidarovszky, Ferenc

2010-01-01

This paper models control of invasive buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare), a fire-prone African bunchgrass spreading rapidly across the southern Arizona desert as a spatial dynamic process. Buffelgrass spreads over a gridded landscape. Weed carrying capacity, treatment costs, and damages vary over grid cells. Damage from buffelgrass depends on its spatial distribution in relation to valued resources. We conduct positive analysis of recommended heuristic strategies for buffelgrass control, evalua...

Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

1995-09-01

This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.

Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E.

1995-09-01

This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC

Spatial modelling of population at risk and PM 2.5 exposure index: A ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

However, monitoring, spatial representation and development of associated risk indicators have been major problems undermining formulation of relevant policy on air quality. This study used ... to environmental health. Key Words: Population at risk, PM2.5; Spatial modeling, GIS, Exposure index, environmental health ...

Dynamic Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Land Use in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Based on Landscape Patterns and Spatial Statistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiahui Fan

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Land use profoundly changes the terrestrial ecosystem and landscape patterns, and these changes reveal the extent and scope of the ecological influence of land use on the terrestrial ecosystem. The study area selected for this research was the middle reaches of the Heihe River. Based on land use data (1986, 2000, and 2014, we proposed an ecological risk index of land use by combining a landscape disturbance index with a landscape fragility index. An exponential model was selected to perform kriging interpolation, as well as spatial autocorrelations and semivariance analyses which could reveal the spatial aggregation patterns. The results indicated that the ecological risk of the middle reaches of the Heihe River was generally high, and higher in the northwest. The high values of the ecological risk index (ERI tended to decrease, and the low ERI values tended to increase. Positive spatial autocorrelations and a prominent scale-dependence were observed among the ERI values. The main hot areas with High-High local autocorrelations were located in the north, and the cold areas with low-low local autocorrelations were primarily located in the middle corridor plain and Qilian Mountains. From 1986 to 2014, low and relatively low ecological risk areas decreased while relatively high risk areas expanded. A middle level of ecological risk was observed in Ganzhou and Minle counties. Shandan County presented a serious polarization, with high ecological risk areas observed in the north and low ecological risk areas observed in the southern Shandan horse farm. In order to lower the eco-risk and achieve the sustainability of land use, these results suggest policies to strictly control the oasis expansion and the occupation of farmland for urbanization. Some inefficient farmland should transform into grassland in appropriate cases.

Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning

Science.gov (United States)

Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

2013-04-01

by means of exploratory questionnaires and interviews with government agencies, local administrations, community and research organizations on each study site. First results provided will address the general role of spatial planning in risk management. Additionally, preliminary observations are made in regard to the coordination of emergency preparedness and long-term spatial planning activities. The observations consider that integration facilitates proactive strategies that aim at preventing disaster occurrence and promote interaction between involved parties. Finally, consideration is given to the potential use of a DSS tool to cover both aspects of spatial planning and emergency management in the risk management cycle.

Burstiness in Viral Bursts: How Stochasticity Affects Spatial Patterns in Virus-Microbe Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yu-Hui; Taylor, Bradford P.; Weitz, Joshua S.

Spatial patterns emerge in living systems at the scale of microbes to metazoans. These patterns can be driven, in part, by the stochasticity inherent to the birth and death of individuals. For microbe-virus systems, infection and lysis of hosts by viruses results in both mortality of hosts and production of viral progeny. Here, we study how variation in the number of viral progeny per lysis event affects the spatial clustering of both viruses and microbes. Each viral ''burst'' is initially localized at a near-cellular scale. The number of progeny in a single lysis event can vary in magnitude between tens and thousands. These perturbations are not accounted for in mean-field models. Here we developed individual-based models to investigate how stochasticity affects spatial patterns in virus-microbe systems. We measured the spatial clustering of individuals using pair correlation functions. We found that increasing the burst size of viruses while maintaining the same production rate led to enhanced clustering. In this poster we also report on preliminary analysis on the evolution of the burstiness of viral bursts given a spatially distributed host community.

Optimization of urban spatial development against flooding and other climate risks, and wider sustainability objectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caparros-Midwood Daniel

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A spatial optimization framework has been developed to help urban areas mitigate climate risks such as flooding and to curb resource use and greenhouse gas emissions. Measures required to address these issues often conflict with each other, for example more compact cities typically use less energy for transportation but increase runoff from high intensity rainfall events. Balancing potential trade-offs and maximizing synergies between these risks and vulnerabilities is therefore a multi-dimensional, spatial, challenge for urban planners. A spatial optimization framework is used to optimize the following objectives to minimize: (1 risk from heat waves; (2 risk from flooding; (3 the distance of new development to the current central business district; (4 urban sprawl to prevent increased travel costs; and (5 the development of green-space. The framework is applied to a real case study in the North East of England. From an initial configuration, alternative spatial configurations are tested against these objectives and the spatial pattern is evolved over successive generations to search for spatially optimum configurations. The resulting solutions provide planners with a range of robust spatial development patterns known to be best trade-offs which mitigate conflicts between risk and sustainability objectives.

Preliminary risk assessment database and risk ranking of pharmaceuticals in the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooper, Emily R.; Siewicki, Thomas C.; Phillips, Karl

2008-01-01

There is increasing concern about pharmaceuticals entering surface waters and the impacts these compounds may have on aquatic organisms. Many contaminants, including pharmaceuticals, are not completely removed by wastewater treatment. Discharge of effluent into surface waters results in chronic low-concentration exposure of aquatic organisms to these compounds, with unknown impacts. Exposure of virulent bacteria in wastewater to antibiotic residues may also induce resistance, which could threaten human health. The purpose of this study was to provide information on pharmaceutical threats to the environment. A preliminary risk assessment database for common pharmaceuticals was created and put into a web-accessible database named 'Pharmaceuticals in the Environment, Information for Assessing Risk' (PEIAR) to help others evaluate potential risks of pharmaceutical contaminants in the environment. Information from PEIAR was used to prioritize compounds that may threaten the environment, with a focus on marine and estuarine environments. The pharmaceuticals were ranked using five different combinations of physical-chemical and toxicological data, which emphasized different risks. The results of the ranking methods differed in the compounds identified as high risk; however, drugs from the central nervous system, cardiovascular, and anti-infective classes were heavily represented within the top 100 drugs in all rankings. Anti-infectives may pose the greatest overall risk based upon our results using a combination of factors that measure environmental transport, fate, and aquatic toxicity. The dataset is also useful for highlighting information that is still needed to assuredly assess risk

Effects of dynamic range compression on spatial selective auditory attention in normal-hearing listeners.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Andrew H; Shinn-Cunningham, Barbara G

2013-04-01

Many hearing aids introduce compressive gain to accommodate the reduced dynamic range that often accompanies hearing loss. However, natural sounds produce complicated temporal dynamics in hearing aid compression, as gain is driven by whichever source dominates at a given moment. Moreover, independent compression at the two ears can introduce fluctuations in interaural level differences (ILDs) important for spatial perception. While independent compression can interfere with spatial perception of sound, it does not always interfere with localization accuracy or speech identification. Here, normal-hearing listeners reported a target message played simultaneously with two spatially separated masker messages. We measured the amount of spatial separation required between the target and maskers for subjects to perform at threshold in this task. Fast, syllabic compression that was independent at the two ears increased the required spatial separation, but linking the compressors to provide identical gain to both ears (preserving ILDs) restored much of the deficit caused by fast, independent compression. Effects were less clear for slower compression. Percent-correct performance was lower with independent compression, but only for small spatial separations. These results may help explain differences in previous reports of the effect of compression on spatial perception of sound.

Markovian equilibria in dynamic spatial legislative bargaining: existence with three players

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Zápal, Jan

2016-01-01

Roč. 98, July (2016), s. 235-242 ISSN 0899-8256 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : dynamic decision-making * endogenous status-quo * spatial bargaining Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.904, year: 2016

Temporal and spatial dynamics of mineral levels of forage, soil and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Temporal and spatial dynamics of mineral levels of forage, soil and cattle blood ... In the plain lands, local variations occurred for soil phosphorus and magnesium. ... Rangeland improvement and supplementation strategies are suggested to ...

Preliminary risk benefit assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, E. E.; Denning, R. S.; Friedlander, A. L.; Priest, C. C.

1982-01-01

This paper describes the recent work of the authors on the evaluation of health risk benefits of space disposal of nuclear waste. The paper describes a risk model approach that has been developed to estimate the non-recoverable, cumulative, expected radionuclide release to the earth's biosphere for different options of nuclear waste disposal in space. Risk estimates for the disposal of nuclear waste in a mined geologic repository and the short- and long-term risk estimates for space disposal were developed. The results showed that the preliminary estimates of space disposal risks are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated release risks for mined geologic repositories remain as low as given by the U.S. DOE, and U.S. EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort in the U.S. is warranted at this time. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as a complement to the mined geologic repository is warranted.

Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

1996-09-01

More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species.

Preliminary assessment of the ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation. 1996 update

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sample, B.E.; Hinzman, R.L.; Jackson, B.L.; Baron, L.

1996-09-01

More than approximately 50 years of operations, storage, and disposal of wastes generated by the three facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) has resulted in a mosaic of uncontaminated property and lands that are contaminated to varying degrees. This contaminated property includes source areas and the terrestrial and aquatic habitats down gradient from these source areas. Although the integrator OUs generally contain considerable habitat for biota, the source OUs provide little or no suitable habitat. Historically, ecological risk assessment at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites has focused on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area or source OU. Endpoints considered in source OUs include plants, soil/litter invertebrates and processes, aquatic biota found in on-OU sediments and surface waters, and small herbivorous, omnivorous, and vermivorous (i.e., feeding on ground, litter, or soil invertebrates) wildlife. All of these endpoints have limited spatial distributions or home ranges such that numerous individuals or a distinct population can be expected to reside within the boundaries of the source OU. Most analyses are not adequate for large sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the ORR that provide habitat for wide-ranging wildlife species. This report is a preliminary response to a plan for assessing risks to wide-ranging species

Markovian equilibria in dynamic spatial legislative bargaining: existence with three players

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Zápal, Jan

2016-01-01

Roč. 98, July (2016), s. 235-242 ISSN 0899-8256 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : dynamic decision-making * endogenous status-quo * spatial bargaining Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.904, year: 2016

Probabilistic disaggregation of a spatial portfolio of exposure for natural hazard risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

2018-01-01

In natural hazard risk assessment situations are encountered where information on the portfolio of exposure is only available in a spatially aggregated form, hindering a precise risk assessment. Recourse might be found in the spatial disaggregation of the portfolio of exposure to the resolution...... of a portfolio of buildings in two communes in Switzerland and the results are compared to sample observations. The relevance of probabilistic disaggregation uncertainty in natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated with the example of a simple flood risk assessment....

Spatially heterogeneous ages in glassy dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castillo, Horacio E.; Chamon, Claudio Chamon; Cugliandolo, Leticia F.; Iguain, Jose Luis; Kennett, Malcolm P.

2003-09-01

We construct a framework for the study of fluctuations in the nonequilibrium relaxation of glassy systems with and without quenched disorder. We study two types of two-time local correlators with the aim of characterizing the heterogeneous evolution in these systems: in one case we average the local correlators over histories of the thermal noise, in the other case we simply coarse-grain the local correlators obtained for a given noise realization. We explain why the noise-averaged correlators describe the fingerprint of quenched disorder when it exists, while the coarse-grained correlators are linked to noise-induced mesoscopic fluctuations. We predict constraints on the distribution of the fluctuations of the coarse-grained quantities. In particular, we show that locally defined correlations and responses are connected by a generalized local out-of-equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation. We argue that large size heterogeneities in the age of the system survive in the long-time limit. A symmetry of the underlying theory, namely invariance under reparametrizations of the time coordinates, underlies these results. We establish a connection between the probabilities of spatial distributions of local coarse-grained quantities and the theory of dynamic random manifolds. We define, and discuss the behavior of, a two-time dependent correlation length from the spatial decay of the fluctuations in the two-time local functions. We characterize the fluctuations in the system in terms of their fractal properties. For concreteness, we present numerical tests performed on disordered spin models in finite and infinite dimensions. Finally, we explain how these ideas can be applied to the analysis of the dynamics of other glassy systems that can be either spin models without disorder or atomic and molecular glassy systems. (author)

Spatial Dynamics of Technological Evolution: Technological Relatedness as Driver for Radical Emerging Technologies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tanner, Anne Nygaard

and applied knowledge in firms, universities, research institutes etc., and 2) the existence of risk-taking actors who are willing and capable of implementing and exploiting radical technologies. This paper focuses on the former. Where evolutionary economics have been occupied by accumulation of knowledge......Despite the consent of the fundamental role technological change plays for economic growth, it seems that little attention has been paid to how new technologies come into being. In particular, an understanding of the spatial and dynamic processes driving the emergence of radical technology...... is lacking. This paper seeks to fill out this research gap by bridging the school of evolutionary economics and the school of economic geography. Following Dosi (1988) two factors are in particular important for technological change in emerging technological paradigms: 1) accumulation of scientific...

Population responses to environmental change in a tropical ant: the interaction of spatial and temporal dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Doug; Vandermeer, John; Perfecto, Ivette; Philpott, Stacy M

2014-01-01

Spatial structure can have a profound, but often underappreciated, effect on the temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Here we report on a counterintuitive increase in the population of a tree-nesting ant, Azteca sericeasur, in response to a drastic reduction in the number of potential nesting sites. This surprising result is comprehensible when viewed in the context of the self-organized spatial dynamics of the ants and their effect on the ants' dispersal-limited natural enemies. Approximately 30% of the trees in the study site, a coffee agroecosystem in southern Mexico, were pruned or felled over a two-year period, and yet the abundance of the ant nests more than doubled over the seven-year study. Throughout the transition, the spatial distribution of the ants maintained a power-law distribution - a signal of spatial self organization - but the local clustering of the nests was reduced post-pruning. A cellular automata model incorporating the changed spatial structure of the ants and the resulting partial escape from antagonists reproduced the observed increase in abundance, highlighting how self-organized spatial dynamics can profoundly influence the responses of ecosystems to perturbations.

Population responses to environmental change in a tropical ant: the interaction of spatial and temporal dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doug Jackson

Full Text Available Spatial structure can have a profound, but often underappreciated, effect on the temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Here we report on a counterintuitive increase in the population of a tree-nesting ant, Azteca sericeasur, in response to a drastic reduction in the number of potential nesting sites. This surprising result is comprehensible when viewed in the context of the self-organized spatial dynamics of the ants and their effect on the ants' dispersal-limited natural enemies. Approximately 30% of the trees in the study site, a coffee agroecosystem in southern Mexico, were pruned or felled over a two-year period, and yet the abundance of the ant nests more than doubled over the seven-year study. Throughout the transition, the spatial distribution of the ants maintained a power-law distribution - a signal of spatial self organization - but the local clustering of the nests was reduced post-pruning. A cellular automata model incorporating the changed spatial structure of the ants and the resulting partial escape from antagonists reproduced the observed increase in abundance, highlighting how self-organized spatial dynamics can profoundly influence the responses of ecosystems to perturbations.

Spatial interactions database development for effective probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liming, J. K.; Dunn, R. F.

2008-01-01

In preparation for a subsequent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) fire risk analysis update, the STP Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) is updating its spatial interactions database (SID). This work is being performed to support updating the spatial interactions analysis (SIA) initially performed for the original South Texas Project Electric Generating Station (STPEGS) probabilistic safely assessment (PSA) and updated in the STPEGS Level 2 PSA and IPE Report. S/A is a large-scope screening analysis performed for nuclear power plant PRA that serves as a prerequisite basis for more detailed location-dependent, hazard-spec analyses in the PRA, such as fire risk analysis, flooding risk analysis, etc. SIA is required to support the 'completeness' argument for the PRA scope. The objectives of the current SID development effort are to update the spatial interactions analysis data, to the greatest degree practical, to be consistent with the following: the as-built plant as of December 31, 2007 the in-effect STPNOC STPEGS Units 1 and 2 PRA the current technology and intent of NUREG/CR-6850 guidance for lire risk analysis database support the requirements for PRA SIA, including fire and flooding risk analysis, established by NRC Regulatory Guide 1.200 and the ASME PRA Standard (ASME RA-S-2002 updated through ASME RA-Sc-2007,) This paper presents the approach and methodology for state-of-the-art SID development and applications, including an overview of the SIA process for nuclear power plant PRA. The paper shows how current relational database technology and existing, conventional station information sources can be employed to collect, process, and analyze spatial interactions data for the plant in an effective and efficient manner to meet the often challenging requirements of industry guidelines and standards such as NUREG/CR-6850, NRC Regulatory Guide 1.200, and ASME RA-S-2002 (updated through ASME RA-Sc 2007). This paper includes tables and figures illustrating how SIA

A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy. Von Holle

2010-01-01

Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees

2013-04-01

In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and

Continuous time modelling of dynamical spatial lattice data observed at sparsely distributed times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Møller, Jesper

2007-01-01

Summary. We consider statistical and computational aspects of simulation-based Bayesian inference for a spatial-temporal model based on a multivariate point process which is only observed at sparsely distributed times. The point processes are indexed by the sites of a spatial lattice......, and they exhibit spatial interaction. For specificity we consider a particular dynamical spatial lattice data set which has previously been analysed by a discrete time model involving unknown normalizing constants. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using continuous time processes compared...... with discrete time processes in the setting of the present paper as well as other spatial-temporal situations....

Spatial distribution of infection risk of SARS transmission in a hospital ward

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qian, Hua; Li, Yuguo [School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing, JiangSu (China); Nielsen, Peter V. [Department of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, DK-9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Huang, Xinhua [Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai (China)

2009-08-15

The classical Wells-Riley model for predicting risk of airborne transmission of diseases assumes a uniform spatial distribution of the infected cases in an enclosed space. A new mathematical model is developed here for predicting the spatial distribution of infection risk of airborne transmitted diseases by integrating the Wells-Riley equation into computational fluid dynamics. We applied our new integrated model to analyze a large nosocomial SARS outbreak in Hong Kong during the 2003 SARS epidemics, which was studied in the literature with regard to the association between airflow and SARS infection. The predicted numbers of infected cases of medical students in the same cubicle, the adjacent cubicle and the distant cubicle were 6.39, 0.78 and 0.2 respectively while the observed numbers of infected medical students in the three cubicles were 7, 0 and 0 respectively during the morning of March 6th, which was the highest attack period. The predicted numbers of infected cases of inpatients during the morning of March 6th in the same cubicle, the adjacent cubic and the distance cubicle were 7.8, 5.1, and 4.8 respectively which also agree well with the observed distribution of the infected inpatients during the entire infection period. The new developed model provides a new modelling tool for investigating the airborne transmission of diseases in enclosed spaces. The model is applicable when the susceptible stays mostly at the same location in an enclosed space during the infectious period, such as inpatients in a hospital ward, passengers in an airplane etc. (author)

Size, Diversification and Risk: Preliminary Evidence from Commercial Banks in Pakistan

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Ayesha Afzal

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to provide some preliminary evidence on relation between size, diversification and risk in commercial banks of Pakistan. Using a panel of Pakistani banks, we investigated whether bigger banks are better diversified than smaller banks.The results suggested that larger banks were more diversified than their smaller counterparts mainly on account of their outreach and size of credit portfolio. On the risk side, based on accounting and market based risk measures, we explored if there is any impact of diversification on risk. We could not deduce significant result in favor of accounting risk measure of impaired lending signaling that banks find no incentive in diversification of credit books. The market based measures of VaR and Default indicator were significantly related to diversification signifying that market participants consider diversification as a relevant tool for risk mitigation. These findings have policy implications for regulators and risk management to ensure stability in financial system.

Spatial analysis of 4,5-dichloro-2-n-octyl-4-isothiazolin-3-one (Sea-Nine 211) concentrations and probabilistic risk to marine organisms in Hiroshima Bay, Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mochida, Kazuhiko; Hano, Takeshi; Onduka, Toshimitsu; Ichihashi, Hideki; Amano, Haruna; Ito, Mana; Ito, Katsutoshi; Tanaka, Hiroyuki; Fujii, Kazunori

2015-01-01

We analyzed the spatial distribution of an antifouling biocide, 4,5-dichloro-2-n-octyl-4-isothiazolin-3-one (Sea-Nine 211) in the surface water and sediments of Hiroshima Bay, Japan to determine the extent of contamination by this biocide. A quantitative estimate of the environmental concentration distribution (ECD) and species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for marine organisms were derived by using a Bayesian statistical model to carry out a probabilistic ecological risk analysis, such as calculation of the expected potentially affected fraction (EPAF). The spatial distribution analysis supported the notion that Sea-Nine 211 is used mainly for treatment of ship hulls in Japan. The calculated EPAF suggests that approximately up to a maximum of 0.45% of marine species are influenced by the toxicity of Sea-Nine 211 in Hiroshima Bay. In addition, estimation of the ecological risk with a conventional risk quotient method indicated that the risk was a cause for concern in Hiroshima Bay. - Highlights: • Spatial distribution analysis exhibits the dynamics of Sea-Nine 211 in Hiroshima Bay. • Probabilistic ecological risk of the biocide was estimated with a Bayesian approach. • Approximately up to 0.45% of marine species were possibly influenced by the toxicity. • The risk analysis concludes that Sea-Nine 211 should be a priority for further work. - Spatial distribution of an antifouling biocide and quantification of its ecological risk were elucidated

Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use pattern response to ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Urban settlements account for only two percent of the Earth's land surface. However, over half of the world's population resides in cities (United Nations, 2001). The quantitative evidences presented here showed that there were drastic changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of land use/land cover. As an overall ...

Preliminary estimates of spatially distributed net infiltration and recharge for the Death Valley region, Nevada-California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hevesi, J.A.; Flint, A.L.; Flint, L.E.

2002-01-01

A three-dimensional ground-water flow model has been developed to evaluate the Death Valley regional flow system, which includes ground water beneath the Nevada Test Site. Estimates of spatially distributed net infiltration and recharge are needed to define upper boundary conditions. This study presents a preliminary application of a conceptual and numerical model of net infiltration. The model was developed in studies at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, which is located in the approximate center of the Death Valley ground-water flow system. The conceptual model describes the effects of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration, and redistribution of water in the shallow unsaturated zone on predicted rates of net infiltration; precipitation and soil depth are the two most significant variables. The conceptual model was tested using a preliminary numerical model based on energy- and water-balance calculations. Daily precipitation for 1980 through 1995, averaging 202 millimeters per year over the 39,556 square kilometers area of the ground-water flow model, was input to the numerical model to simulate net infiltration ranging from zero for a soil thickness greater than 6 meters to over 350 millimeters per year for thin soils at high elevations in the Spring Mountains overlying permeable bedrock. Estimated average net infiltration over the entire ground-water flow model domain is 7.8 millimeters per year. To evaluate the application of the net-infiltration model developed on a local scale at Yucca Mountain, to net-infiltration estimates representing the magnitude and distribution of recharge on a regional scale, the net-infiltration results were compared with recharge estimates obtained using empirical methods. Comparison of model results with previous estimates of basinwide recharge suggests that the net-infiltration estimates obtained using this model may overestimate recharge because of uncertainty in modeled precipitation, bedrock permeability, and soil properties for

Social Moderation and Dynamic Elements in Crowdsourced Geospatial Data: A Report on Quality Assessment, Dynamic Extensions and Mobile Device Engagement in the George Mason University Geocrowdsourcing Testbed

Science.gov (United States)

2015-11-01

Figure 60). This mobile web application has an advantage of being able to utilize the large library of spatial functions from Turf. The use of a NoSQL ... NoSQL database to increase dynamic performance. The WebApp is responsive and performed well in preliminary testing. Because communication between

Relative risk of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: a spatial analysis in urban area.

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Valdelaine Etelvina Miranda de Araújo

2013-11-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is a vector-borne disease whose factors involved in transmission are poorly understood, especially in more urban and densely populated counties. In Brazil, the VL urbanization is a challenge for the control program. The goals were to identify the greater risk areas for human VL and the risk factors involved in transmission. METHODOLOGY: This is an ecological study on the relative risk of human VL. Spatial units of analysis were the coverage areas of the Basic Health Units (146 small-areas of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Human VL cases, from 2007 to 2009 (n = 412, were obtained in the Brazilian Reportable Disease Information System. Bayesian approach was used to model the relative risk of VL including potential risk factors involved in transmission (canine infection, socioeconomic and environmental features and to identify the small-areas of greater risk to human VL. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The relative risk of VL was shown to be correlated with income, education, and the number of infected dogs per inhabitants. The estimates of relative risk of VL were higher than 1.0 in 54% of the areas (79/146. The spatial modeling highlighted 14 areas with the highest relative risk of VL and 12 of them are concentrated in the northern region of the city. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis used in this study is useful for the identification of small-areas according to risk of human VL and presents operational applicability in control and surveillance program in an urban environment with an unequal spatial distribution of the disease. Thus the frequent monitoring of relative risk of human VL in small-areas is important to direct and prioritize the actions of the control program in urban environment, especially in big cities.

Portraying Temporal Dynamics of Urban Spatial Divisions with Mobile Phone Positioning Data: A Complex Network Approach

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Meng Zhou

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Spatial structure is a fundamental characteristic of cities that influences the urban functioning to a large extent. While administrative partitioning is generally done in the form of static spatial division, understanding a more temporally dynamic structure of the urban space would benefit urban planning and management immensely. This study makes use of a large-scale mobile phone positioning dataset to characterize the diurnal dynamics of the interaction-based urban spatial structure. To extract the temporally vibrant structure, spatial interaction networks at different times are constructed based on the movement connections of individuals between geographical units. Complex network community detection technique is applied to identify the spatial divisions as well as to quantify their temporal dynamics. Empirical analysis is conducted using data containing all user positions on a typical weekday in Shenzhen, China. Results are compared with official zoning and planned structure and indicate a certain degree of expansion in urban central areas and fragmentation in industrial suburban areas. A high level of variability in spatial divisions at different times of day is detected with some distinct temporal features. Peak and pre-/post-peak hours witness the most prominent fluctuation in spatial division indicating significant change in the characteristics of movements and activities during these periods of time. Findings of this study demonstrate great potential of large-scale mobility data in supporting intelligent spatial decision making and providing valuable knowledge to the urban planning sectors.

Preliminary risk assessment of Power Plant Plomin site contaminated by radioactive slag and ash

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skanata, D.; Sinka, D.; Lokner, V.; Schaller, A.

1996-01-01

There is a certain number of radioactively contaminated sites in the Republic of Croatia, one of them being known as Power Plant Plomin site, which contains radioactive slag and ash. Due to a relatively high quantity of the deposited material, as well as relatively high population density of the neighbouring area, it is very important to assess the impact of the site on human health and environment. Using RESRAD computer code and PATHRAE method a preliminary assessment of doses and radiation risks for the workers who spend most of their working day at the pile has been performed. PATHRAE method has also been used for the assessment of radiation risks for the neighbouring population. The assessment is preliminary in its character due to the lack of input data. On the basis of assessment results, recommendations are being given comprising measurements to be taken with a view to coming up with the final risk assessment, as well as protective measures which should be undertaken in the meantime. (author)

Langevin Dynamics with Spatial Correlations as a Model for Electron-Phonon Coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Tamm, A.; Caro, M.; Caro, A.; Samolyuk, G.; Klintenberg, M.; Correa, A. A.

2018-05-01

Stochastic Langevin dynamics has been traditionally used as a tool to describe nonequilibrium processes. When utilized in systems with collective modes, traditional Langevin dynamics relaxes all modes indiscriminately, regardless of their wavelength. We propose a generalization of Langevin dynamics that can capture a differential coupling between collective modes and the bath, by introducing spatial correlations in the random forces. This allows modeling the electronic subsystem in a metal as a generalized Langevin bath endowed with a concept of locality, greatly improving the capabilities of the two-temperature model. The specific form proposed here for the spatial correlations produces a physical wave-vector and polarization dependency of the relaxation produced by the electron-phonon coupling in a solid. We show that the resulting model can be used for describing the path to equilibration of ions and electrons and also as a thermostat to sample the equilibrium canonical ensemble. By extension, the family of models presented here can be applied in general to any dense system, solids, alloys, and dense plasmas. As an example, we apply the model to study the nonequilibrium dynamics of an electron-ion two-temperature Ni crystal.

Failure mode analysis of preliminary design of ITER divertor impurity monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitazawa, Sin-iti; Ogawa, Hiroaki

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Divertor impurity influx monitor for ITER (DIM) is procured by JADA. • DIM is designed to observe light from nuclear fusion plasma directly. • DIM is under preliminary design phase. • Failure mode of DIM was prepared for RAMI analysis. • RAMI analysis on DIM was performed to reduce technical risks. - Abstract: The objective of the divertor impurity influx monitor (DIM) for ITER is to measure the parameters of impurities and hydrogen isotopes (tritium, deuterium, and hydrogen) in divertor plasma using visible and UV spectroscopic techniques in the 200–1000 nm wavelength range. In ITER, special provisions are required to ensure accuracy and full functionality of the diagnostic components under harsh conditions (high temperature, high magnetic field, high vacuum condition, and high radiation field). Japan Domestic Agency is preparing the preliminary design of the ITER DIM system, which will be installed in the upper, equatorial and lower ports. The optical and mechanical designs of the DIM are conducted to fit ITER’s requirements. The optical and mechanical designs meet the requirements of spatial resolution. Some auxiliary systems were examined via prototyping. The preliminary design of the ITER DIM system was evaluated by RAMI analysis. The availability of the designed system is adequately high to satisfy the project requirements. However, some equipment does not have certain designs, and this may cause potential technical risks. The preliminary design should be modified to reduce technical risks and to prepare the final design.

Spatial-temporal-spectral EEG patterns of BOLD functional network connectivity dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Lamoš, Martin; Mareček, Radek; Slavíček, Tomáš; Mikl, Michal; Rektor, Ivan; Jan, Jiří

2018-06-01

Objective. Growing interest in the examination of large-scale brain network functional connectivity dynamics is accompanied by an effort to find the electrophysiological correlates. The commonly used constraints applied to spatial and spectral domains during electroencephalogram (EEG) data analysis may leave part of the neural activity unrecognized. We propose an approach that blindly reveals multimodal EEG spectral patterns that are related to the dynamics of the BOLD functional network connectivity. Approach. The blind decomposition of EEG spectrogram by parallel factor analysis has been shown to be a useful technique for uncovering patterns of neural activity. The simultaneously acquired BOLD fMRI data were decomposed by independent component analysis. Dynamic functional connectivity was computed on the component’s time series using a sliding window correlation, and between-network connectivity states were then defined based on the values of the correlation coefficients. ANOVA tests were performed to assess the relationships between the dynamics of between-network connectivity states and the fluctuations of EEG spectral patterns. Main results. We found three patterns related to the dynamics of between-network connectivity states. The first pattern has dominant peaks in the alpha, beta, and gamma bands and is related to the dynamics between the auditory, sensorimotor, and attentional networks. The second pattern, with dominant peaks in the theta and low alpha bands, is related to the visual and default mode network. The third pattern, also with peaks in the theta and low alpha bands, is related to the auditory and frontal network. Significance. Our previous findings revealed a relationship between EEG spectral pattern fluctuations and the hemodynamics of large-scale brain networks. In this study, we suggest that the relationship also exists at the level of functional connectivity dynamics among large-scale brain networks when no standard spatial and spectral

Spatial dynamics of the red grouper Epinephelus morio (Pisces: Serranidae on the Campeche Bank, Gulf of Mexico

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Jorge A. López-Rocha

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The spatial dynamics of the red grouper Epinephelus morio plays a fundamental role in the fishery management on the Campeche Bank, where it is overfished. The objective of this study was to characterize the spatial dynamics of this population. We used a dynamic model of spatial distribution to estimate population movement rates between adjacent areas. The model was applied using information on catch per unit effort and length-frequency distributions for the Mexican mid-sized fleet that operated in the area in the period 1973-1977. These data were chosen to ensure that the information would reflect the condition of the resource before overfishing. It was possible to quantify the spatial dynamics of the red grouper and the results were consistent with previously known movement patterns. The results showed different movement rates and temporal patterns of movement for different population sectors. The spawning aggregations and the seasonal upwelling occurring in the eastern part of the Bank were considered as key factors influencing the pattern of population movements.

Dynamic Raman imaging system with high spatial and temporal resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lei; Dai, Yinzhen; He, Hao; Lv, Ruiqi; Zong, Cheng; Ren, Bin

2017-09-01

There is an increasing need to study dynamic changing systems with significantly high spatial and temporal resolutions. In this work, we integrated point-scanning, line-scanning, and wide-field Raman imaging techniques into a single system. By using an Electron Multiplying CCD (EMCCD) with a high gain and high frame rate, we significantly reduced the time required for wide-field imaging, making it possible to monitor the electrochemical reactions in situ. The highest frame rate of EMCDD was ˜50 fps, and the Raman images for a specific Raman peak can be obtained by passing the signal from the sample through the Liquid Crystal Tunable Filter. The spatial resolutions of scanning imaging and wide-field imaging with a 100× objective (NA = 0.9) are 0.5 × 0.5 μm2 and 0.36 × 0.36 μm2, respectively. The system was used to study the surface plasmon resonance of Au nanorods, the surface-enhanced Raman scattering signal distribution for Au Nanoparticle aggregates, and dynamic Raman imaging of an electrochemical reacting system.

Geographic variations in cervical cancer risk in San Luis Potosí state, Mexico: A spatial statistical approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Terán-Hernández, Mónica; Ramis-Prieto, Rebeca; Calderón-Hernández, Jaqueline; Garrocho-Rangel, Carlos Félix; Campos-Alanís, Juan; Ávalos-Lozano, José Antonio; Aguilar-Robledo, Miguel

2016-09-29

Worldwide, Cervical Cancer (CC) is the fourth most common type of cancer and cause of death in women. It is a significant public health problem, especially in low and middle-income/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) countries. In the past decade, several studies of CC have been published, that identify the main modifiable and non-modifiable CC risk factors for Mexican women. However, there are no studies that attempt to explain the residual spatial variation in CC incidence In Mexico, i.e. spatial variation that cannot be ascribed to known, spatially varying risk factors. This paper uses a spatial statistical methodology that takes into account spatial variation in socio-economic factors and accessibility to health services, whilst allowing for residual, unexplained spatial variation in risk. To describe residual spatial variations in CC risk, we used generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) with both spatially structured and unstructured random effects, using a Bayesian approach to inference. The highest risk is concentrated in the southeast, where the Matlapa and Aquismón municipalities register excessive risk, with posterior probabilities greater than 0.8. The lack of coverage of Cervical Cancer-Screening Programme (CCSP) (RR 1.17, 95 % CI 1.12-1.22), Marginalisation Index (RR 1.05, 95 % CI 1.03-1.08), and lack of accessibility to health services (RR 1.01, 95 % CI 1.00-1.03) were significant covariates. There are substantial differences between municipalities, with high-risk areas mainly in low-resource areas lacking accessibility to health services for CC. Our results clearly indicate the presence of spatial patterns, and the relevance of the spatial analysis for public health intervention. Ignoring the spatial variability means to continue a public policy that does not tackle deficiencies in its national CCSP and to keep disadvantaging and disempowering Mexican women in regard to their health care.

[Temporal and spatial characteristics of ecological risk in Shunyi, Beijing, China based on landscape structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Qing, Feng Ting; Peng, Yu

2016-05-01

Based on the remote sensing data in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009 and 2013, this article classified the landscape types of Shunyi, and the ecological risk index was built based on landscape disturbance index and landscape fragility. The spatial auto-correlation and geostatistical analysis by GS + and ArcGIS was used to study temporal and spatial changes of ecological risk. The results showed that eco-risk degree in the study region had positive spatial correlation which decreased with the increasing grain size. Within a certain grain range (landscape, such as the banks of Chaobai River.

Role of update dynamics in the collective cooperation on the spatial snowdrift games: Beyond unconditional imitation and replicator dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xia Chengyi; Wang Juan; Wang Li; Sun Shiwen; Sun Junqing; Wang Jinsong

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We investigate the role of update rules in the spatial snowdrift game on regular lattices. ► Compared with UI and replicator rules, the cooperation can be further promoted by the Moran rule. ► f c and the cluster formation pattern for these three update rules are carefully explored. ► The frequency of cooperators is insensitive to the random initial set of players. - Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the role of update or imitation rules in the spatial snowdrift game on regular lattices. Three different update rules, including unconditional imitation (UI), replicator dynamics (RD) and the Moran process, are utilized to update the strategies of focal players during the game process in the spatial snowdrift on the lattice. We observe that the aggregate cooperation level between players is largely elevated by using the Moran process in the spatial snowdrift game, when compared to the UI or replicator dynamics. Meanwhile, we carefully explore the dynamical evolution of frequency of cooperators and the cluster formation pattern for these three update rules. Moreover, it is also shown that the evolutionary behavior under the Moran update is independent of and insensitive to the randomly initial configurations of cooperators and defectors. The current results clearly indicate that the introduction of moderate randomness in the strategy update will highly promote the maintenance and persistence of cooperation among selfish individuals, which will be greatly instrumental to deeply understand the evolution of cooperation within many natural, biological and social systems.

Understanding the Complexity of Temperature Dynamics in Xinjiang, China, from Multitemporal Scale and Spatial Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianhua Xu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Based on the observed data from 51 meteorological stations during the period from 1958 to 2012 in Xinjiang, China, we investigated the complexity of temperature dynamics from the temporal and spatial perspectives by using a comprehensive approach including the correlation dimension (CD, classical statistics, and geostatistics. The main conclusions are as follows (1 The integer CD values indicate that the temperature dynamics are a complex and chaotic system, which is sensitive to the initial conditions. (2 The complexity of temperature dynamics decreases along with the increase of temporal scale. To describe the temperature dynamics, at least 3 independent variables are needed at daily scale, whereas at least 2 independent variables are needed at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. (3 The spatial patterns of CD values at different temporal scales indicate that the complex temperature dynamics are derived from the complex landform.

Clustering Effect on the Dynamics in a Spatial Rock-Paper-Scissors System

Science.gov (United States)

Hashimoto, Tsuyoshi; Sato, Kazunori; Ichinose, Genki; Miyazaki, Rinko; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

2018-01-01

The lattice dynamics for rock-paper-scissors games is related to population theories in ecology. In most cases, simulations are performed by local and global interactions. It is known in the former case that the dynamics is usually stable. We find two types of non-random distributions in the stationary state. One is a cluster formation of endangered species: when the density of a species approaches zero, its clumping degree diverges to infinity. The other is the strong aggregations of high-density species. Such spatial pattern formations play important roles in population dynamics.

Urban Land Expansion and Spatial Dynamics in Globalizing Shanghai

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Han Li

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Urban land expansion in China has attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, more work is needed to apply spatial modeling to understanding the mechanisms of urban growth from both institutional and physical perspectives. This paper analyzes urban expansion in Shanghai and its development zones (DZs. We find that, as nodes of global-local interface, the DZs are the most significant components of urban growth in Shanghai, and major spatial patterns of urban expansion in Shanghai are infilling and edge expansion. We apply logistic regression, geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR and spatial regime regression to investigate the determinants of urban land expansion including physical conditions, state policy and land development. Regressions reveal that, though the market has been an important driving force in urban growth, the state has played a predominant role through the implementation of urban planning and the establishment of DZs to fully capitalize on globalization. We also find that differences in urban growth dynamics exist between the areas inside and outside of the DZs. Finally, this paper discusses policies to promote sustainable development in Shanghai.

Preliminary Experimental Results for Indirect Vector-Control of Induction Motor Drives with Forced Dynamics

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Jan Vittek

2003-01-01

Full Text Available The contribution presents an extension of indirect vector control of electric drives employing induction motors to 'Forced Dynamic Control'. This method of control offers an accurate realisation of dynamic response profiles, which can be selected by the user. The developed system can be integrated into a drive with a shaft position encoder or a shaft sensoriess drive, in which only the stator currents are measured. The applied stator voltages are determined by a computed inverter switching algorithm. Simulation results and preliminary experimental results for indirect vector control of an idle running induction motor indicate good agreement with the theoretical predictions.

Potential and flux field landscape theory. I. Global stability and dynamics of spatially dependent non-equilibrium systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Wei; Wang, Jin

2013-09-28

We established a potential and flux field landscape theory to quantify the global stability and dynamics of general spatially dependent non-equilibrium deterministic and stochastic systems. We extended our potential and flux landscape theory for spatially independent non-equilibrium stochastic systems described by Fokker-Planck equations to spatially dependent stochastic systems governed by general functional Fokker-Planck equations as well as functional Kramers-Moyal equations derived from master equations. Our general theory is applied to reaction-diffusion systems. For equilibrium spatially dependent systems with detailed balance, the potential field landscape alone, defined in terms of the steady state probability distribution functional, determines the global stability and dynamics of the system. The global stability of the system is closely related to the topography of the potential field landscape in terms of the basins of attraction and barrier heights in the field configuration state space. The effective driving force of the system is generated by the functional gradient of the potential field alone. For non-equilibrium spatially dependent systems, the curl probability flux field is indispensable in breaking detailed balance and creating non-equilibrium condition for the system. A complete characterization of the non-equilibrium dynamics of the spatially dependent system requires both the potential field and the curl probability flux field. While the non-equilibrium potential field landscape attracts the system down along the functional gradient similar to an electron moving in an electric field, the non-equilibrium flux field drives the system in a curly way similar to an electron moving in a magnetic field. In the small fluctuation limit, the intrinsic potential field as the small fluctuation limit of the potential field for spatially dependent non-equilibrium systems, which is closely related to the steady state probability distribution functional, is

A Flood Risk Assessment of Quang Nam, Vietnam Using Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chinh Luu

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Vietnam is highly vulnerable to flood and storm impacts. Holistic flood risk assessment maps that adequately consider flood risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are not available. These are vital for flood risk preparedness and disaster mitigation measures at the local scale. Unfortunately, there is a lack of knowledge about spatial multicriteria decision analysis and flood risk analysis more broadly in Vietnam. In response to this need, we identify and quantify flood risk components in Quang Nam province through spatial multicriteria decision analysis. The study presents a new approach to local flood risk assessment mapping, which combines historical flood marks with exposure and vulnerability data. The flood risk map output could assist and empower decision-makers in undertaking flood risk management activities in the province. Our study demonstrates a methodology to build flood risk assessment maps using flood mark, exposure and vulnerability data, which could be applied in other provinces in Vietnam.

SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF LAND COVER AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE RISK

Science.gov (United States)

Climate changes may allow for vector-transmitted tropical diseases to spread into temperate areas. Areas of low ecological diversity are at higher risk of infectious disease transmission due to decreased zooprophylaxis, the diversion of disease carrying insects from humans to...

Spatial and dynamic organization of molecular structures in the cell nucleus

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwer, Anne-Kee

2010-01-01

In this thesis we attempt to provide a better understanding of the principles that underlie the spatial dynamic organization of the cell nucleus. Chapter 1 reviews the current status of knowledge about the structural and functional organization of the cell nucleus. In chapter 2, the development of a

Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas Based on Spatial Analytics and Social Factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Costas Armenakis

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Flood maps alone are not sufficient to determine and assess the risks to people, property, infrastructure, and services due to a flood event. Simply put, the risk is almost zero to minimum if the flooded region is “empty” (i.e., unpopulated, has not properties, no industry, no infrastructure, and no socio-economic activity. High spatial resolution Earth Observation (EO data can contribute to the generation and updating of flood risk maps based on several aspects including population, economic development, and critical infrastructure, which can enhance a city’s flood mitigation and preparedness planning. In this case study for the Don River watershed, Toronto, the flood risk is determined and flood risk index maps are generated by implementing a methodology for estimating risk based on the geographic coverage of the flood hazard, vulnerability of people, and the exposure of large building structures to flood water. Specifically, the spatial flood risk index maps have been generated through analytical spatial modeling which takes into account the areas in which a flood hazard is expected to occur, the terrain’s morphological characteristics, socio-economic parameters based on demographic data, and the density of large building complexes. Generated flood risk maps are verified through visual inspection with 3D city flood maps. Findings illustrate that areas of higher flood risk coincide with areas of high flood hazard and social and building exposure vulnerability.

Spatial risk profiling of Schistosoma japonicum in Eryuan county, Yunnan province, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Steinmann

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Bayesian spatial risk profiling holds promise to enhance our understanding of the epidemiology of parasitic diseases, and to target interventions in a cost-effective manner. Here, we present findings from a study using Bayesian variogram models to map and predict the seroprevalence of Schistosoma japonicum in Eryuan county, Yunnan province, China, including risk factor analysis. Questionnaire and serological data were obtained through a cross-sectional survey carried out in 35 randomly selected villages with 3,220 people enrolled. Remotely-sensed environmental data were derived from publicly available databases. Bivariate and non-spatial Bayesian multiple logistic regression models were used to identify associations between the local seroprevalence and demographic (i.e. age and sex, environmental (i.e. location of village, altitude, slope, land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index and socio-economic factors. In the spatially-explicit Bayesian model, S. japonicum seroprevalence was significantly associated with sex, age and the location of the village. Males, those aged below 10 years and inhabitants of villages situated on steep slopes (inclination ≥20° or on less precipitous slopes of >5° above 2,150 m were at lower risk of seroconversion than their respective counterparts. Our final prediction model revealed an elevated risk for seroconversion in the plains of the eastern parts of Eryuan county. In conclusion, the prediction map can be utilized for spatial targeting of schistosomiasis control interventions in Eryuan county. Moreover, S. japonicum seroprevalence studies might offer a convenient means to assess the infection pressure experienced by local communities, and to improve risk profiling in areas where the prevalence and infection intensities have come down following repeated rounds of praziquantel administration.

76 FR 52945 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-24

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OPP-2008-0850; FRL-8886-6] Chlorpyrifos Registration... chlorpyrifos registration review; preliminary human health risk assessment. This document extends the comment... . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This document extends the public comment period for the chlorpyrifos reregistration...

Speckle and fringe dynamics in imagingspeckle-pattern interferometry for spatial-filtering velocimetry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, Michael Linde; Iversen, Theis F. Q.; Yura, Harold T.

2011-01-01

This paper analyzes the dynamics of laser speckles and fringes, formed in an imaging-speckle-pattern interferometer with the purpose of sensing linear three-dimensional motion and out-of-plane components of rotation in real time, using optical spatial-filtering-velocimetry techniques. The ensemble......-average definition of the cross-correlation function is applied to the intensity distributions, obtained in the observation plane at two positions of the object. The theoretical analysis provides a description for the dynamics of both the speckles and the fringes. The analysis reveals that both the magnitude...... and direction of all three linear displacement components of the object movement can be determined. Simultaneously, out-ofplane rotation of the object including the corresponding directions can be determined from the spatial gradient of the in-plane fringe motion throughout the observation plane. The theory...

[Spatiotemporal dynamic fuzzy evaluation of wetland environmental pollution risk in Dayang estuary of Liaoning Province, Northeast China based on remote sensing].

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yong-Guang; Zhao, Dong-Zhi; Zhang, Feng-Shou; Wei, Bao-Quan; Chu, Jia-Lan; Su, Xiu

2012-11-01

Based on the aerial image data of Dayang estuary in 2008, and by virtue of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) , remote sensing technology, and GIS spatial analysis, a spatiotemporal evaluation was made on the comprehensive level of wetland environmental pollution risk in Dayang estuary, with the impacts of typical human activities on the dynamic variation of this comprehensive level discussed. From 1958 to 2008, the comprehensive level of the environmental pollution risk in study area presented an increasing trend. Spatially, this comprehensive level declined from land to ocean, and showed a zonal distribution. Tourism development activities unlikely led to the increase of the comprehensive level, while human inhabitation, transportation, and aquaculture would exacerbate the risk of environmental pollution. This study could provide reference for the sea area use planning, ecological function planning, and pollutants control of estuary region.

Spatial variation of pneumonia hospitalization risk in Twin Cities metro area, Minnesota.

Science.gov (United States)

Iroh Tam, P Y; Krzyzanowski, B; Oakes, J M; Kne, L; Manson, S

2017-11-01

Fine resolution spatial variability in pneumonia hospitalization may identify correlates with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors. We performed a retrospective study within the Fairview Health System network of Minnesota. Patients 2 months of age and older hospitalized with pneumonia between 2011 and 2015 were geocoded to their census block group, and pneumonia hospitalization risk was analyzed in relation to socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors. Spatial analyses were performed using Esri's ArcGIS software, and multivariate Poisson regression was used. Hospital encounters of 17 840 patients were included in the analysis. Multivariate Poisson regression identified several significant associations, including a 40% increased risk of pneumonia hospitalization among census block groups with large, compared with small, populations of ⩾65 years, a 56% increased risk among census block groups in the bottom (first) quartile of median household income compared to the top (fourth) quartile, a 44% higher risk in the fourth quartile of average nitrogen dioxide emissions compared with the first quartile, and a 47% higher risk in the fourth quartile of average annual solar insolation compared to the first quartile. After adjusting for income, moving from the first to the second quartile of the race/ethnic diversity index resulted in a 21% significantly increased risk of pneumonia hospitalization. In conclusion, the risk of pneumonia hospitalization at the census-block level is associated with age, income, race/ethnic diversity index, air quality, and solar insolation, and varies by region-specific factors. Identifying correlates using fine spatial analysis provides opportunities for targeted prevention and control.

Dynamic Post-Earthquake Image Segmentation with an Adaptive Spectral-Spatial Descriptor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Genyun Sun

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The region merging algorithm is a widely used segmentation technique for very high resolution (VHR remote sensing images. However, the segmentation of post-earthquake VHR images is more difficult due to the complexity of these images, especially high intra-class and low inter-class variability among damage objects. Herein two key issues must be resolved: the first is to find an appropriate descriptor to measure the similarity of two adjacent regions since they exhibit high complexity among the diverse damage objects, such as landslides, debris flow, and collapsed buildings. The other is how to solve over-segmentation and under-segmentation problems, which are commonly encountered with conventional merging strategies due to their strong dependence on local information. To tackle these two issues, an adaptive dynamic region merging approach (ADRM is introduced, which combines an adaptive spectral-spatial descriptor and a dynamic merging strategy to adapt to the changes of merging regions for successfully detecting objects scattered globally in a post-earthquake image. In the new descriptor, the spectral similarity and spatial similarity of any two adjacent regions are automatically combined to measure their similarity. Accordingly, the new descriptor offers adaptive semantic descriptions for geo-objects and thus is capable of characterizing different damage objects. Besides, in the dynamic region merging strategy, the adaptive spectral-spatial descriptor is embedded in the defined testing order and combined with graph models to construct a dynamic merging strategy. The new strategy can find the global optimal merging order and ensures that the most similar regions are merged at first. With combination of the two strategies, ADRM can identify spatially scattered objects and alleviates the phenomenon of over-segmentation and under-segmentation. The performance of ADRM has been evaluated by comparing with four state-of-the-art segmentation methods

Spatial integration and cortical dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, C D; Das, A; Ito, M; Kapadia, M; Westheimer, G

1996-01-23

Cells in adult primary visual cortex are capable of integrating information over much larger portions of the visual field than was originally thought. Moreover, their receptive field properties can be altered by the context within which local features are presented and by changes in visual experience. The substrate for both spatial integration and cortical plasticity is likely to be found in a plexus of long-range horizontal connections, formed by cortical pyramidal cells, which link cells within each cortical area over distances of 6-8 mm. The relationship between horizontal connections and cortical functional architecture suggests a role in visual segmentation and spatial integration. The distribution of lateral interactions within striate cortex was visualized with optical recording, and their functional consequences were explored by using comparable stimuli in human psychophysical experiments and in recordings from alert monkeys. They may represent the substrate for perceptual phenomena such as illusory contours, surface fill-in, and contour saliency. The dynamic nature of receptive field properties and cortical architecture has been seen over time scales ranging from seconds to months. One can induce a remapping of the topography of visual cortex by making focal binocular retinal lesions. Shorter-term plasticity of cortical receptive fields was observed following brief periods of visual stimulation. The mechanisms involved entailed, for the short-term changes, altering the effectiveness of existing cortical connections, and for the long-term changes, sprouting of axon collaterals and synaptogenesis. The mutability of cortical function implies a continual process of calibration and normalization of the perception of visual attributes that is dependent on sensory experience throughout adulthood and might further represent the mechanism of perceptual learning.

Dynamic multiprotein assemblies shape the spatial structure of cell signaling.

Science.gov (United States)

Nussinov, Ruth; Jang, Hyunbum

2014-01-01

Cell signaling underlies critical cellular decisions. Coordination, efficiency as well as fail-safe mechanisms are key elements. How the cell ensures that these hallmarks are at play are important questions. Cell signaling is often viewed as taking place through discrete and cross-talking pathways; oftentimes these are modularized to emphasize distinct functions. While simple, convenient and clear, such models largely neglect the spatial structure of cell signaling; they also convey inter-modular (or inter-protein) spatial separation that may not exist. Here our thesis is that cell signaling is shaped by a network of multiprotein assemblies. While pre-organized, the assemblies and network are loose and dynamic. They contain transiently-associated multiprotein complexes which are often mediated by scaffolding proteins. They are also typically anchored in the membrane, and their continuum may span the cell. IQGAP1 scaffolding protein which binds proteins including Raf, calmodulin, Mek, Erk, actin, and tens more, with actin shaping B-cell (and likely other) membrane-anchored nanoclusters and allosterically polymerizing in dynamic cytoskeleton formation, and Raf anchoring in the membrane along with Ras, provides a striking example. The multivalent network of dynamic proteins and lipids, with specific interactions forming and breaking, can be viewed as endowing gel-like properties. Collectively, this reasons that efficient, productive and reliable cell signaling takes place primarily through transient, preorganized and cooperative protein-protein interactions spanning the cell rather than stochastic, diffusion-controlled processes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Biodiversity Risk in the US: A Spatial Econometric Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert P. Berrens

2011-11-01

Full Text Available This study investigates whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC relationship is supported for a measure of biodiversity risk and economic development across the United States (US. Using state-level data for all 48 contiguous states, biodiversity risk is measured using a Modified Index (MODEX. This index is an adaptation of a comprehensive National Biodiversity Risk Assessment Index. The MODEX differs from other measures in that it is takes into account the impact of human activities and conservation measures. The econometric approach includes corrections for spatial autocorrelation effects, which are present in the data. Modeling estimation results do not support the EKC hypothesis for biodiversity risk in the US. This finding is robust over ordinary least squares, spatial error, and spatial lag models, where the latter is shown to be the preferred model. Results from the spatial lag regression show that a 1% increase in human population density is associated with about a 0.19% increase in biodiversity risk. Spatial dependence in this case study explains 30% of the variation, as risk in one state spills over into adjoining states. From a policy perspective, this latter result supports the need for coordinated efforts at state and federal levels to address the problem of biodiversity loss.

The traveling salesrat: insights into the dynamics of efficient spatial navigation in the rodent

Science.gov (United States)

Watkins de Jong, Laurel; Gereke, Brian; Martin, Gerard M.; Fellous, Jean-Marc

2011-10-01

Rodent spatial navigation requires the dynamic evaluation of multiple sources of information, including visual cues, self-motion signals and reward signals. The nature of the evaluation, its dynamics and the relative weighting of the multiple information streams are largely unknown and have generated many hypotheses in the field of robotics. We use the framework of the traveling salesperson problem (TSP) to study how this evaluation may be achieved. The TSP is a classical artificial intelligence NP-hard problem that requires an agent to visit a fixed set of locations once, minimizing the total distance traveled. We show that after a few trials, rats converge on a short route between rewarded food cups. We propose that this route emerges from a series of local decisions that are derived from weighing information embedded in the context of the task. We study the relative weighting of spatial and reward information and establish that, in the conditions of this experiment, when the contingencies are not in conflict, rats choose the spatial or reward optimal solution. There was a trend toward a preference for space when the contingencies were in conflict. We also show that the spatial decision about which cup to go to next is biased by the orientation of the animal. Reward contingencies are also shown to significantly and dynamically modulate the decision-making process. This paradigm will allow for further neurophysiological studies aimed at understanding the synergistic role of brain areas involved in planning, reward processing and spatial navigation. These insights will in turn suggest new neural-like architectures for the control of mobile autonomous robots.

Spatial dynamics of a nutrient-phytoplankton system with toxic effect on phytoplankton

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chakraborty, Subhendu; Tiwari, P. K.; Misra, A. K.

2015-01-01

The production of toxins by some species of phytoplankton is known to have several economic, ecological, and human health impacts. However, the role of toxins on the spatial distribution of phytoplankton is not well understood. In the present study, the spatial dynamics of a nutrient-phytoplankto...... patterns, like stripes, spots, and the mixture of them depending on the toxicity level. We also observe that the distribution of nutrient and phytoplankton shows spatiotemporal oscillation for certain toxicity level. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved....

Long-term spatial dynamics of Succisa pratensis in a changing rural landscape: linking dynamical modeling with historical maps

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Herben, Tomáš; Münzbergová, Zuzana; Mildén, M.; Ehrlén, J.; Cousins, S.A.O.; Eriksson, O.

2006-01-01

Roč. 94, - (2006), s. 131-143 ISSN 0022-0477 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD206/03/H137 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : spatial * dynamics * Succisa Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 4.239, year: 2006

The third spatial dimension risk approach for individual risk and group risk in multiple use of space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suddle, Shahid; Ale, Ben

2005-01-01

Buildings above roads and railways are examples of multiple use of space. Safety is one of the critical issues for such projects. Risk analyses can be undertaken to investigate what safety measures that are required to realise these projects. The results of these analyses can also be compared to risk acceptance criteria, if they are applicable. In The Netherlands, there are explicit criteria for acceptability of individual risk and societal risk. Traditionally calculations of individual risk result in contours of equal risk on a map and thus are considered in two-dimensional space only. However, when different functions are layered the third spatial dimension, height, becomes an important parameter. The various activities and structures above and below each other impose mutual risks. There are no explicit norms or policies about how to deal with the individual or group risk approach in the third dimension. This paper proposes an approach for these problems and gives some examples. Finally, the third dimension risk approach is applied in a case study of Bos en Lommer, Amsterdam

Spatial and temporal dynamics of multidimensional well-being, livelihoods and ecosystem services in coastal Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Helen; Adger, W. Neil; Ahmad, Sate; Ahmed, Ali; Begum, Dilruba; Lázár, Attila N.; Matthews, Zoe; Rahman, Mohammed Mofizur; Streatfield, Peter Kim

2016-01-01

Populations in resource dependent economies gain well-being from the natural environment, in highly spatially and temporally variable patterns. To collect information on this, we designed and implemented a 1586-household quantitative survey in the southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh. Data were collected on material, subjective and health dimensions of well-being in the context of natural resource use, particularly agriculture, aquaculture, mangroves and fisheries. The questionnaire included questions on factors that mediate poverty outcomes: mobility and remittances; loans and micro-credit; environmental perceptions; shocks; and women’s empowerment. The data are stratified by social-ecological system to take into account spatial dynamics and the survey was repeated with the same respondents three times within a year to incorporate seasonal dynamics. The dataset includes blood pressure measurements and height and weight of men, women and children. In addition, the household listing includes basic data on livelihoods and income for approximately 10,000 households. The dataset facilitates interdisciplinary research on spatial and temporal dynamics of well-being in the context of natural resource dependence in low income countries. PMID:27824340

EEG source reconstruction reveals frontal-parietal dynamics of spatial conflict processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Michael X; Ridderinkhof, K Richard

2013-01-01

Cognitive control requires the suppression of distracting information in order to focus on task-relevant information. We applied EEG source reconstruction via time-frequency linear constrained minimum variance beamforming to help elucidate the neural mechanisms involved in spatial conflict processing. Human subjects performed a Simon task, in which conflict was induced by incongruence between spatial location and response hand. We found an early (∼200 ms post-stimulus) conflict modulation in stimulus-contralateral parietal gamma (30-50 Hz), followed by a later alpha-band (8-12 Hz) conflict modulation, suggesting an early detection of spatial conflict and inhibition of spatial location processing. Inter-regional connectivity analyses assessed via cross-frequency coupling of theta (4-8 Hz), alpha, and gamma power revealed conflict-induced shifts in cortical network interactions: Congruent trials (relative to incongruent trials) had stronger coupling between frontal theta and stimulus-contrahemifield parietal alpha/gamma power, whereas incongruent trials had increased theta coupling between medial frontal and lateral frontal regions. These findings shed new light into the large-scale network dynamics of spatial conflict processing, and how those networks are shaped by oscillatory interactions.

EEG source reconstruction reveals frontal-parietal dynamics of spatial conflict processing.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael X Cohen

Full Text Available Cognitive control requires the suppression of distracting information in order to focus on task-relevant information. We applied EEG source reconstruction via time-frequency linear constrained minimum variance beamforming to help elucidate the neural mechanisms involved in spatial conflict processing. Human subjects performed a Simon task, in which conflict was induced by incongruence between spatial location and response hand. We found an early (∼200 ms post-stimulus conflict modulation in stimulus-contralateral parietal gamma (30-50 Hz, followed by a later alpha-band (8-12 Hz conflict modulation, suggesting an early detection of spatial conflict and inhibition of spatial location processing. Inter-regional connectivity analyses assessed via cross-frequency coupling of theta (4-8 Hz, alpha, and gamma power revealed conflict-induced shifts in cortical network interactions: Congruent trials (relative to incongruent trials had stronger coupling between frontal theta and stimulus-contrahemifield parietal alpha/gamma power, whereas incongruent trials had increased theta coupling between medial frontal and lateral frontal regions. These findings shed new light into the large-scale network dynamics of spatial conflict processing, and how those networks are shaped by oscillatory interactions.

EEG Source Reconstruction Reveals Frontal-Parietal Dynamics of Spatial Conflict Processing

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Michael X; Ridderinkhof, K. Richard

2013-01-01

Cognitive control requires the suppression of distracting information in order to focus on task-relevant information. We applied EEG source reconstruction via time-frequency linear constrained minimum variance beamforming to help elucidate the neural mechanisms involved in spatial conflict processing. Human subjects performed a Simon task, in which conflict was induced by incongruence between spatial location and response hand. We found an early (∼200 ms post-stimulus) conflict modulation in stimulus-contralateral parietal gamma (30–50 Hz), followed by a later alpha-band (8–12 Hz) conflict modulation, suggesting an early detection of spatial conflict and inhibition of spatial location processing. Inter-regional connectivity analyses assessed via cross-frequency coupling of theta (4–8 Hz), alpha, and gamma power revealed conflict-induced shifts in cortical network interactions: Congruent trials (relative to incongruent trials) had stronger coupling between frontal theta and stimulus-contrahemifield parietal alpha/gamma power, whereas incongruent trials had increased theta coupling between medial frontal and lateral frontal regions. These findings shed new light into the large-scale network dynamics of spatial conflict processing, and how those networks are shaped by oscillatory interactions. PMID:23451201

Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pouran Morovati

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

Visuo-spatial processing in a dynamic and a static working memory paradigm in schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cocchi, Luca; Schenk, Françoise; Volken, Henri

2007-01-01

patients with schizophrenia and matched controls in a new working memory paradigm involving dynamic (the Ball Flight Task - BFT) or static (the Static Pattern Task - SPT) visual stimuli. In the BFT, the responses of the patients were apparently based on the retention of the last set of segments...... that visuo-spatial working memory can simply be dissociated into visual and spatial sub-components....

Spatial and temporal variation in evacuee risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process.

Science.gov (United States)

Siebeneck, Laura K; Cova, Thomas J

2012-09-01

Developing effective evacuation and return-entry plans requires understanding the spatial and temporal dimensions of risk perception experienced by evacuees throughout a disaster event. Using data gathered from the 2008 Cedar Rapids, Iowa Flood, this article explores how risk perception and location influence evacuee behavior during the evacuation and return-entry process. Three themes are discussed: (1) the spatial and temporal characteristics of risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process, (2) the relationship between risk perception and household compliance with return-entry orders, and (3) the role social influences have on the timing of the return by households. The results indicate that geographic location and spatial variation of risk influenced household risk perception and compliance with return-entry plans. In addition, sociodemographic characteristics influenced the timing and characteristics of the return groups. The findings of this study advance knowledge of evacuee behavior throughout a disaster and can inform strategies used by emergency managers throughout the evacuation and return-entry process. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk Management of Large RC Structures within Spatial Information System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Jianjun; Faber, Michael Havbro

2012-01-01

Abstract: The present article addresses the development of a spatial information system (SIS), which aims to facilitate risk management of large‐scale concrete structures. The formulation of the SIS is based on ideas developed in the context of indicator‐based risk modeling for concrete structures...... subject to corrosion and geographical information system based risk modeling concerning large‐scale risk management. The term “risk management” here refers in particular to the process of condition assessment and optimization of the inspection and repair activities. The SIS facilitates the storage...... and handling of all relevant information to the risk management. The probabilistic modeling utilized in the condition assessment takes basis in a Bayesian hierarchical modeling philosophy. It facilitates the updating of risks as well as optimizing inspection plans whenever new information about the condition...

Preliminary Dynamic Feasibility and Analysis of a Spherical, Wind-Driven (Tumbleweed), Martian Rover

Science.gov (United States)

Flick, John J.; Toniolo, Matthew D.

2005-01-01

The process and findings are presented from a preliminary feasibility study examining the dynamics characteristics of a spherical wind-driven (or Tumbleweed) rover, which is intended for exploration of the Martian surface. The results of an initial feasibility study involving several worst-case mobility situations that a Tumbleweed rover might encounter on the surface of Mars are discussed. Additional topics include the evaluation of several commercially available analysis software packages that were examined as possible platforms for the development of a Monte Carlo Tumbleweed mission simulation tool. This evaluation lead to the development of the Mars Tumbleweed Monte Carlo Simulator (or Tumbleweed Simulator) using the Vortex physics software package from CM-Labs, Inc. Discussions regarding the development and evaluation of the Tumbleweed Simulator, as well as the results of a preliminary analysis using the tool are also presented. Finally, a brief conclusions section is presented.

Preliminary Assessment of Spatial Competition in the Market for E85

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bentley Clinton

2017-02-01

The Preliminary Assessment of Spatial Competition in the Market for E85 presentation and supplementary report from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory examine how the spacing of E85 fueling stations impacts E85 retail pricing. The analysis finds an inverse correlation between station density and E85 prices, with local competition putting downward pressure on E85 prices. A gas station with E85 whose nearest competitor is within a 0.5 mile radius is associated with a lower E85 price per gallon than an otherwise identical station with E85 whose nearest competitor is farther away. The analysis also finds a higher level of correlation between E85 and both E10 and wholesale gasoline prices than with ethanol costs. This indicates that E85 may, in fact, be priced with respect to its substitute fuel, and not based on the cost of its inputs. These findings help identify key trends and barriers in E85 markets and highlight data gaps that, if addressed, could help enable competitive E85 markets. The analysis was released in February 2017 and uses national and Minnesota-specific price data.

A New Method for Spatial Health Risk Assessment of Pollutants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamad Sakizadeh*

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Background: The area of contaminated lands exposed to the health risk of environmental pollutants is a matter of argument. In this study, a new method was developed to estimate the amount of area that is exposed to higher than normal levels of Cr, Mn, and V. Methods: Overall, 170 soil samples were collected from the upper 10 cm of soil in an arid area in central part of Iran in Semnan Province. The values of Cr, Mn, and V were detected by ICP-OES technique. A geostatistical method known as sequential Gaussian co-simulation was applied to consider the spatial risk of these toxic elements. Results: The moderate spatial dependence of Cr indicates the contribution of both intrinsic and extrinsic factor to the levels of this heavy metal in the study area, whereas, Mn and V can be attributed to intrinsic factors (such as lithology. There has not been any significant influence due to agricultural practices on the Cr values in the region. The surface of contaminated area for manganese, produced by risk curve on surface method, was higher than chromium and vanadium. Conclusion: The produced risk curves as rendered in this study can be adopted in similar studies to help managers to estimate the total area that requires cleanup action.

CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

2014-05-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk

Dynamics and spatial distribution of beta-lactamase expression in Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bagge, N.; Hentzer, Morten; Andersen, Jens Bo

2004-01-01

of increased imipenem concentrations. Ceftazidime induced the monitor system of the biofilm bacteria as well, but only bacteria in the peripheries of the microcolonies were induced in the presence of even very high concentrations. The experiments illustrate for the first time the dynamic and spatial...

A spatially-evaluated methodology for assessing risk to a population from contaminated land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gay, J. Rebecca; Korre, Anna

2006-01-01

A methodology is proposed which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land, in a manner which preserves the spatial distribution of risks and provides a measure of uncertainty in the assessment. Maps of soil contaminant levels, which incorporate uncertainty, are produced from sparse sample data using sequential indicator simulation. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. An abundance of information is contained in results which can be interrogated at the population and individual level, and mapped to provide a powerful visual tool for risk managers, enabling efficient targeting of risk reduction measures to different locations. - A methodology for calculating and mapping risks to a population from intake of soil contaminants

Control of Spin Wave Dynamics in Spatially Twisted Magnetic Structures

Science.gov (United States)

2017-06-27

control the spin wave dynamics of magnetic structures twisted spatially, we prepared the exchange-coupled films with the hard magnetic L10-FePt and...information writing of magnetic storage and spintronic applications. Introduction and Objective: Recent rapid progress in the research field of nano...scaled bilayer elements is also an important aim of this project. Approach/Method: The exchange-coupled films with the hard magnetic L10-FePt and

Dynamics of spatial traveler's dilemma games

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanimoto, Jun

2014-01-01

By examining payoff structures, we elucidate the traveler's dilemma (TD) game. It can be said that the TD game as the 2-player and multi-strategy game is a variant of the donor and recipient game, which itself is a subclass of the 2-player and 2-strategy (2 × 2) prisoner's dilemma, in the sense that the Nash equilibrium and fair Pareto optimum appear on mutual defection and mutual cooperation, respectively. Exploring spatial TD games, we observed that the network reciprocity of TD games can be universally scaled with a single dilemma parameter as can be performed in usual 2 × 2 games. Furthermore, we observed a local peak event reflecting a resurging cooperation fraction with increasing dilemma strength after degradation to a low level. We successfully demonstrate that this is caused by the specific dynamics of TD games created by their specific payoff structure. (paper)

Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space. Volume I. Executive summary of technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rice, E.E.; Denning, R.S.; Friedlander, A.L.

1982-01-01

Three major conclusions come from this preliminary risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal in space. Preliminary estimates of space disposal risk are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated mined geologic repository (MGR) release risks remain low, and the EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort is warranted. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as an MGR complement is warranted. As a result of this study, the following recommendations are made to NASA and the US DOE: During the continued evaluation of the mined geologic repository risk over the years ahead by DOE, if any significant increase in the calculated health risk is predicted for the MGR, then space disposal should be reevaluated at that time. The risks perceived by the public for the MGR should be evaluated on a broad basis by an independent organization to evaluate acceptance. If, in the future, MGR risks are found to be significant due to some presently unknown technical or social factor, and space disposal is selected as an alternative that may be useful in mitigating the risks, then the following space disposal study activities are recommended: improvement in chemical processing technology for wastes; payload accident response analysis; risk uncertainty analysis for both MGR and space disposal; health risk modeling that includes pathway and dose estimates; space disposal cost modeling; assessment of space disposal perceived (by public) risk benefit; and space systems analysis supporting risk and cost modeling

A spatial picture of the synthetic large-scale motion from dynamic roughness

Science.gov (United States)

Huynh, David; McKeon, Beverley

2017-11-01

Jacobi and McKeon (2011) set up a dynamic roughness apparatus to excite a synthetic, travelling wave-like disturbance in a wind tunnel, boundary layer study. In the present work, this dynamic roughness has been adapted for a flat-plate, turbulent boundary layer experiment in a water tunnel. A key advantage of operating in water as opposed to air is the longer flow timescales. This makes accessible higher non-dimensional actuation frequencies and correspondingly shorter synthetic length scales, and is thus more amenable to particle image velocimetry. As a result, this experiment provides a novel spatial picture of the synthetic mode, the coupled small scales, and their streamwise development. It is demonstrated that varying the roughness actuation frequency allows for significant tuning of the streamwise wavelength of the synthetic mode, with a range of 3 δ-13 δ being achieved. Employing a phase-locked decomposition, spatial snapshots are constructed of the synthetic large scale and used to analyze its streamwise behavior. Direct spatial filtering is used to separate the synthetic large scale and the related small scales, and the results are compared to those obtained by temporal filtering that invokes Taylor's hypothesis. The support of AFOSR (Grant # FA9550-16-1-0361) is gratefully acknowledged.

Preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system based on information in the literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luick, A.E.; Fecht, B.A.; Nilson, S.A.; Sevigny, N.L.; Armstrong, G.R.; Hill, D.H.; Rowe, M.; Stern, E.

1992-01-01

This document presents preliminary information on the radiological and nonradiological risks in the nuclear waste management system. The objective of the study was to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitude of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management systems. The study examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system currently expected to be developed by the DOE. The scope of this document includes the potential repository, the integral MRS facility, and the transportation system that supports the potential repository and the MRS facility. Relevant literature was reviewed for several potential repository sites and geologic media. A wide range of ''risk categories'' are addressed in this report: (1) public and occupational risks from accidents that could release radiological materials, (2) public and occupational radiation exposure resulting from routine operations, (3) public and occupational risks from accidents involving hazards other than radioactive materials, and (4) public and occupational risks from exposure to nonradioactive hazardous materials during routine operations. The report is intended to provide a broad spectrum of risk-related information about the waste management system. This information is intended to be helpful for planning future studies

Improving the allocation of flood-risk interventions from a spatial quality perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nillesen, A.L.

2014-01-01

This paper describes an integral approach to flood-risk protection and spatial design that allows for an active involvement of landscape architects and urban designers in the allocation of flood-risk interventions within the Dutch Delta. The Dutch Rijnmond–Drechtsteden area is used as a case study

A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

2015-01-01

Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

Propagation dynamics for a spatially periodic integrodifference competition model

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Ruiwen; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study the propagation dynamics for a class of integrodifference competition models in a periodic habitat. An interesting feature of such a system is that multiple spreading speeds can be observed, which biologically means different species may have different spreading speeds. We show that the model system admits a single spreading speed, and it coincides with the minimal wave speed of the spatially periodic traveling waves. A set of sufficient conditions for linear determinacy of the spreading speed is also given.

Prevalence, risk factors and spatial analysis of liver fluke infections in Danish cattle herds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Abbey; Frankena, Klaas; Bødker, Rene

2015-01-01

fitted the observed spatial pattern. Results: During the investigated period (2011-2013), an increase in annual herd prevalence was noted (2011-25.6%; 2012-28.4%; 2013-29.3%). The spatial analysis suggested significant clustering of positive and negative herds. Presence of streams, wetlands and pastures...... on farms showed a significant association with the presence of infection in cattle herds. Buying animals from positive herds was a risk factor on conventional farms. Additionally, risk of being infected with Fasciola hepatica was higher in non-dairy herds of medium size (>= 30 and ... to dairy and large (>= 100) cattle herds. The observed spatial pattern could be reproduced by predictions of the risk factor model. Conclusions: This study showed an increase in annual herd level prevalence (2011 to 2013) indicating that an increasing proportion of herds are infected with Fasciola hepatica...

Prevention of oil spill from shipping by modelling of dynamic risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Eide, Magnus S; Endresen, Oyvind; Breivik, Oyvind; Brude, Odd Willy; Ellingsen, Ingrid H; Røang, Kjell; Hauge, Jarle; Brett, Per Olaf

2007-10-01

This paper presents a new dynamic environmental risk model, with intended use within a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this newly developed approach is that shipping risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The risk model proposed in this paper separates itself from previous models by drawing on available information on dynamic factors and by focusing on the ship's surroundings. The model estimates the environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Results show that the inherent dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends, not surprisingly, significantly upon wind and ocean currents, as well as tug position and cargo oil type. Results of this study indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time risk assessment, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. The model is well suited as a tool to prioritise oil tankers and coastal segments. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.

The influence of spatial resolution on human health risk co-benefit estimates for global climate policy assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen

2015-03-15

Assessment of the ability of climate policies to produce desired improvements in public health through co-benefits of air pollution reduction can consume resources in both time and research funds. These resources increase significantly as the spatial resolution of models increases. In addition, the level of spatial detail available in macroeconomic models at the heart of climate policy assessments is much lower than that available in traditional human health risk modeling. It is therefore important to determine whether increasing spatial resolution considerably affects risk-based decisions; which kinds of decisions might be affected; and under what conditions they will be affected. Human health risk co-benefits from carbon emissions reductions that bring about concurrent reductions in Particulate Matter (PM10) emissions is therefore examined here at four levels of spatial resolution (Uniform Nation, Uniform Region, Uniform County/city, Health Risk Assessment) in a case study of Taiwan as one of the geographic regions of a global macroeceonomic model, with results that are representative of small, industrialized nations within that global model. A metric of human health risk mortality (YOLL, years of life lost in life expectancy) is compared under assessments ranging from a "uniform simulation" in which there is no spatial resolution of changes in ambient air concentration under a policy to a "highly spatially resolved simulation" (called here Health Risk Assessment). PM10 is chosen in this study as the indicator of air pollution for which risks are assessed due to its significance as a co-benefit of carbon emissions reductions within climate mitigation policy. For the policy examined, the four estimates of mortality in the entirety of Taiwan are 747 YOLL, 834 YOLL, 984 YOLL and 916 YOLL, under Uniform Taiwan, Uniform Region, Uniform County and Health Risk Assessment respectively; or differences of 18%, 9%, 7% if the HRA methodology is taken as the baseline. While

Spatial epidemiology of cancer: a review of data sources, methods and risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rita Roquette

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Cancer is a major concern among chronic diseases today. Spatial epidemiology plays a relevant role in this matter and we present here a review of this subject, including a discussion of the literature in terms of the level of geographic data aggregation, risk factors and methods used to analyse the spatial distribution of patterns and spatial clusters. For this purpose, we performed a websearch in the Pubmed and Web of Science databases including studies published between 1979 and 2015. We found 180 papers from 63 journals and noted that spatial epidemiology of cancer has been addressed with more emphasis during the last decade with research based on data mostly extracted from cancer registries and official mortality statistics. In general, the research questions present in the reviewed papers can be classified into three different sets: i analysis of spatial distribution of cancer and/or its temporal evolution; ii risk factors; iii development of data analysis methods and/or evaluation of results obtained from application of existing methods. This review is expected to help promote research in this area through the identification of relevant knowledge gaps. Cancer’s spatial epidemiology represents an important concern, mainly for public health policies design aimed to minimise the impact of chronic disease in specific populations.

Finite energy wave signals of extremal amplitude in the spatial NLS-dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.; Andonowati, A.

2006-01-01

With the aim to find extremal properties of extreme waves, we consider waves of maximal crest (and wave) height in the model of the spatial NLS-dynamics. Using the two motion invariants momentum and Hamiltonian as constraints, we show that so-called cornered solitons provide the maximal crest

Sustainable and Smart City Planning Using Spatial Data in Wallonia

Science.gov (United States)

Stephenne, N.; Beaumont, B.; Hallot, E.; Wolff, E.; Poelmans, L.; Baltus, C.

2016-09-01

Simulating population distribution and land use changes in space and time offer opportunities for smart city planning. It provides a holistic and dynamic vision of fast changing urban environment to policy makers. Impacts, such as environmental and health risks or mobility issues, of policies can be assessed and adapted consequently. In this paper, we suppose that "Smart" city developments should be sustainable, dynamic and participative. This paper addresses these three smart objectives in the context of urban risk assessment in Wallonia, Belgium. The sustainable, dynamic and participative solution includes (i) land cover and land use mapping using remote sensing and GIS, (ii) population density mapping using dasymetric mapping, (iii) predictive modelling of land use changes and population dynamics and (iv) risk assessment. The comprehensive and long-term vision of the territory should help to draw sustainable spatial planning policies, to adapt remote sensing acquisition, to update GIS data and to refine risk assessment from regional to city scale.

Wild Fire Risk Map in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag

2016-06-01

Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

Spatial distribution of the risk of dengue fever in southeast Brazil, 2006-2007

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nucci Luciana B

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many factors have been associated with circulation of the dengue fever virus and vector, although the dynamics of transmission are not yet fully understood. The aim of this work is to estimate the spatial distribution of the risk of dengue fever in an area of continuous dengue occurrence. Methods This is a spatial population-based case-control study that analyzed 538 cases and 727 controls in one district of the municipality of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil, from 2006-2007, considering socio-demographic, ecological, case severity, and household infestation variables. Information was collected by in-home interviews and inspection of living conditions in and around the homes studied. Cases were classified as mild or severe according to clinical data, and they were compared with controls through a multinomial logistic model. A generalized additive model was used in order to include space in a non-parametric fashion with cubic smoothing splines. Results Variables associated with increased incidence of all dengue cases in the multiple binomial regression model were: higher larval density (odds ratio (OR = 2.3 (95%CI: 2.0-2.7, reports of mosquito bites during the day (OR = 1.8 (95%CI: 1.4-2.4, the practice of water storage at home (OR = 2.5 (95%CI: 1.4, 4.3, low frequency of garbage collection (OR = 2.6 (95%CI: 1.6-4.5 and lack of basic sanitation (OR = 2.9 (95%CI: 1.8-4.9. Staying at home during the day was protective against the disease (OR = 0.5 (95%CI: 0.3-0.6. When cases were analyzed by categories (mild and severe in the multinomial model, age and number of breeding sites more than 10 were significant only for the occurrence of severe cases (OR = 0.97, (95%CI: 0.96-0.99 and OR = 2.1 (95%CI: 1.2-3.5, respectively. Spatial distribution of risks of mild and severe dengue fever differed from each other in the 2006/2007 epidemic, in the study area. Conclusions Age and presence of more than 10 breeding sites were significant only

FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da

2015-01-01

Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10 -5 by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10 -4 by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10 -5 by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

FN-curves: preliminary estimation of severe accident risks after Fukushima

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Costa, Antonio Carlos Lopes da, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: aclc@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2015-07-01

Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10{sup -5} by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10{sup -4} by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10{sup -5} by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

Pod systems: an equivariant ordinary differential equation approach to dynamical systems on a spatial domain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elmhirst, Toby; Stewart, Ian; Doebeli, Michael

2008-01-01

We present a class of systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which we call 'pod systems', that offers a new perspective on dynamical systems defined on a spatial domain. Such systems are typically studied as partial differential equations, but pod systems bring the analytic techniques of ODE theory to bear on the problems, and are thus able to study behaviours and bifurcations that are not easily accessible to the standard methods. In particular, pod systems are specifically designed to study spatial dynamical systems that exhibit multi-modal solutions. A pod system is essentially a linear combination of parametrized functions in which the coefficients and parameters are variables whose dynamics are specified by a system of ODEs. That is, pod systems are concerned with the dynamics of functions of the form Ψ(s, t) = y 1 (t) φ(s; x 1 (t)) + ··· + y N (t) φ(s; x N (t)), where s in R n is the spatial variable and φ: R n × R d → R. The parameters x i in R d and coefficients y i in R are dynamic variables which evolve according to some system of ODEs, x-dot i = G i (x, y) and y-dot i = H i (x, y), for i = 1, ..., N. The dynamics of Ψ in function space can then be studied through the dynamics of the x and y in finite dimensions. A vital feature of pod systems is that the ODEs that specify the dynamics of the x and y variables are not arbitrary; restrictions on G i and H i are required to guarantee that the dynamics of Ψ in function space are well defined (that is, that trajectories are unique). One important restriction is symmetry in the ODEs which arises because Ψ is invariant under permutations of the indices of the (x i , y i ) pairs. However, this is not the whole story, and the primary goal of this paper is to determine the necessary structure of the ODEs explicitly to guarantee that the dynamics of Ψ are well defined

Bent dark soliton dynamics in two spatial dimensions beyond the mean field approximation

Science.gov (United States)

Mistakidis, Simeon; Katsimiga, Garyfallia; Koutentakis, Georgios; Kevrekidis, Panagiotis; Schmelcher, Peter; Theory Group of Fundamental Processes in Quantum Physics Team

2017-04-01

The dynamics of a bented dark soliton embedded in two spatial dimensions beyond the mean-field approximation is explored. We examine the case of a single bented dark soliton comparing the mean-field approximation to a correlated approach that involves multiple orbitals. Fragmentation is generally present and significantly affects the dynamics, especially in the case of stronger interparticle interactions and in that of lower atom numbers. It is shown that the presence of fragmentation allows for the appearance of solitonic and vortex structures in the higher-orbital dynamics. In particular, a variety of excitations including dark solitons in multiple orbitals and vortex-antidark complexes is observed to arise spontaneously within the beyond mean-field dynamics. Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) in the framework of the SFB 925 ``Light induced dynamics and control of correlated quantum systems''.

Conceptualizing a Dynamic Fall Risk Model Including Intrinsic Risks and Exposures.

Science.gov (United States)

Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire

2017-11-01

Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Practical considerations for high spatial and temporal resolution dynamic transmission electron microscopy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Armstrong, Michael R. [Materials Science and Technology Division, Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-356, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States)], E-mail: armstrong30@llnl.gov; Boyden, Ken [Materials Science and Technology Division, Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-356, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Browning, Nigel D. [Materials Science and Technology Division, Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-356, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of California-Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Campbell, Geoffrey H.; Colvin, Jeffrey D.; De Hope, William J.; Frank, Alan M. [Materials Science and Technology Division, Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-356, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Gibson, David J.; Hartemann, Fred [N Division, Physics and Advanced Technologies Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-280, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Kim, Judy S. [Materials Science and Technology Division, Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-356, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of California-Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); King, Wayne E.; La Grange, Thomas B.; Pyke, Ben J.; Reed, Bryan W.; Shuttlesworth, Richard M.; Stuart, Brent C.; Torralva, Ben R. [Materials Science and Technology Division, Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-356, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States)

2007-04-15

Although recent years have seen significant advances in the spatial resolution possible in the transmission electron microscope (TEM), the temporal resolution of most microscopes is limited to video rate at best. This lack of temporal resolution means that our understanding of dynamic processes in materials is extremely limited. High temporal resolution in the TEM can be achieved, however, by replacing the normal thermionic or field emission source with a photoemission source. In this case the temporal resolution is limited only by the ability to create a short pulse of photoexcited electrons in the source, and this can be as short as a few femtoseconds. The operation of the photo-emission source and the control of the subsequent pulse of electrons (containing as many as 5x10{sup 7} electrons) create significant challenges for a standard microscope column that is designed to operate with a single electron in the column at any one time. In this paper, the generation and control of electron pulses in the TEM to obtain a temporal resolution <10{sup -6} s will be described and the effect of the pulse duration and current density on the spatial resolution of the instrument will be examined. The potential of these levels of temporal and spatial resolution for the study of dynamic materials processes will also be discussed.

Practical considerations for high spatial and temporal resolution dynamic transmission electron microscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Armstrong, Michael R.; Boyden, Ken; Browning, Nigel D.; Campbell, Geoffrey H.; Colvin, Jeffrey D.; De Hope, William J.; Frank, Alan M.; Gibson, David J.; Hartemann, Fred; Kim, Judy S.; King, Wayne E.; La Grange, Thomas B.; Pyke, Ben J.; Reed, Bryan W.; Shuttlesworth, Richard M.; Stuart, Brent C.; Torralva, Ben R.

2007-01-01

Although recent years have seen significant advances in the spatial resolution possible in the transmission electron microscope (TEM), the temporal resolution of most microscopes is limited to video rate at best. This lack of temporal resolution means that our understanding of dynamic processes in materials is extremely limited. High temporal resolution in the TEM can be achieved, however, by replacing the normal thermionic or field emission source with a photoemission source. In this case the temporal resolution is limited only by the ability to create a short pulse of photoexcited electrons in the source, and this can be as short as a few femtoseconds. The operation of the photo-emission source and the control of the subsequent pulse of electrons (containing as many as 5x10 7 electrons) create significant challenges for a standard microscope column that is designed to operate with a single electron in the column at any one time. In this paper, the generation and control of electron pulses in the TEM to obtain a temporal resolution -6 s will be described and the effect of the pulse duration and current density on the spatial resolution of the instrument will be examined. The potential of these levels of temporal and spatial resolution for the study of dynamic materials processes will also be discussed

Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

2012-01-01

Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.

WILD FIRE RISK MAP IN THE EASTERN STEPPE OF MONGOLIA USING SPATIAL MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS

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E. Nasanbat

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

Pricing Chinese Convertible Bonds with Dynamic Credit Risk

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Ping Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available To price convertible bonds more precisely, least squares Monte Carlo (LSM method is used in this paper for its advantage in handling the dependence of derivatives on the path, and dynamic credit risk is used to replace the fixed one to make the value of convertible bonds reflect the real credit risk. In the empirical study, we price convertible bonds based on static credit risk and dynamic credit risk, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the ICBC convertible bond has been overpriced, resulting from the underestimation of credit risk. In addition, when there is an issue of dividend, the conversion price will change in China's convertible bonds, while it does not change in the international convertible bonds. So we also empirically study the difference between the convertible bond's prices by assuming whether the conversion price changes or not.

Using spatial information about recurrence risk for robust optimization of dose-painting prescription functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bender, Edward T.

2012-01-01

Purpose: To develop a robust method for deriving dose-painting prescription functions using spatial information about the risk for disease recurrence. Methods: Spatial distributions of radiobiological model parameters are derived from distributions of recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. These model parameters are then used to derive optimal dose-painting prescription functions given a constant mean biologically effective dose. Results: An estimate for the optimal dose distribution can be derived based on spatial information about recurrence risk. Dose painting based on imaging markers that are moderately or poorly correlated with recurrence risk are predicted to potentially result in inferior disease control when compared the same mean biologically effective dose delivered uniformly. A robust optimization approach may partially mitigate this issue. Conclusions: The methods described here can be used to derive an estimate for a robust, patient-specific prescription function for use in dose painting. Two approximate scaling relationships were observed: First, the optimal choice for the maximum dose differential when using either a linear or two-compartment prescription function is proportional to R, where R is the Pearson correlation coefficient between a given imaging marker and recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. Second, the predicted maximum possible gain in tumor control probability for any robust optimization technique is nearly proportional to the square of R.

Bifurcation and spatial pattern formation in spreading of disease with incubation period in a phytoplankton dynamics

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Randhir Singh Baghel

2012-02-01

Full Text Available In this article, we propose a three dimensional mathematical model of phytoplankton dynamics with the help of reaction-diffusion equations that studies the bifurcation and pattern formation mechanism. We provide an analytical explanation for understanding phytoplankton dynamics with three population classes: susceptible, incubated, and infected. This model has a Holling type II response function for the population transformation from susceptible to incubated class in an aquatic ecosystem. Our main goal is to provide a qualitative analysis of Hopf bifurcation mechanisms, taking death rate of infected phytoplankton as bifurcation parameter, and to study further spatial patterns formation due to spatial diffusion. Here analytical findings are supported by the results of numerical experiments. It is observed that the coexistence of all classes of population depends on the rate of diffusion. Also we obtained the time evaluation pattern formation of the spatial system.

Displaying R spatial statistics on Google dynamic maps with web applications created by Rwui

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background The R project includes a large variety of packages designed for spatial statistics. Google dynamic maps provide web based access to global maps and satellite imagery. We describe a method for displaying directly the spatial output from an R script on to a Google dynamic map. Methods This is achieved by creating a Java based web application which runs the R script and then displays the results on the dynamic map. In order to make this method easy to implement by those unfamiliar with programming Java based web applications, we have added the method to the options available in the R Web User Interface (Rwui) application. Rwui is an established web application for creating web applications for running R scripts. A feature of Rwui is that all the code for the web application being created is generated automatically so that someone with no knowledge of web programming can make a fully functional web application for running an R script in a matter of minutes. Results Rwui can now be used to create web applications that will display the results from an R script on a Google dynamic map. Results may be displayed as discrete markers and/or as continuous overlays. In addition, users of the web application may select regions of interest on the dynamic map with mouse clicks and the coordinates of the region of interest will automatically be made available for use by the R script. Conclusions This method of displaying R output on dynamic maps is designed to be of use in a number of areas. Firstly it allows statisticians, working in R and developing methods in spatial statistics, to easily visualise the results of applying their methods to real world data. Secondly, it allows researchers who are using R to study health geographics data, to display their results directly onto dynamic maps. Thirdly, by creating a web application for running an R script, a statistician can enable users entirely unfamiliar with R to run R coded statistical analyses of health geographics

Spatial distribution of, and risk factors for, Opisthorchis viverrini infection in southern Lao PDR.

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Armelle Forrer

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Opisthorchis viverrini is a food-borne trematode species that might give rise to biliary diseases and the fatal cholangiocarcinoma. In Lao PDR, an estimated 2.5 million individuals are infected with O. viverrini, but epidemiological studies are scarce and the spatial distribution of infection remains to be determined. Our aim was to map the distribution of O. viverrini in southern Lao PDR, identify underlying risk factors, and predict the prevalence of O. viverrini at non-surveyed locations. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional parasitological and questionnaire survey was carried out in 51 villages in Champasack province in the first half of 2007. Data on demography, socioeconomic status, water supply, sanitation, and behavior were combined with remotely sensed environmental data and fed into a geographical information system. Bayesian geostatistical models were employed to identify risk factors and to investigate the spatial pattern of O. viverrini infection. Bayesian kriging was utilized to predict infection risk at non-surveyed locations. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The prevalence of O. viverrini among 3,371 study participants with complete data records was 61.1%. Geostatistical models identified age, Lao Loum ethnic group, educational attainment, occupation (i.e., rice farmer, fisherman, and animal breeder, and unsafe drinking water source as risk factors for infection. History of praziquantel treatment, access to sanitation, and distance to freshwater bodies were found to be protective factors. Spatial patterns of O. viverrini were mainly governed by environmental factors with predictive modeling identifying two different risk profiles: low risk of O. viverrini in the mountains and high risk in the Mekong corridor. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We present the first risk map of O. viverrini infection in Champasack province, which is important for spatial targeting of control efforts. Infection with O. viverrini appears to be strongly associated

Exploring dynamical complexity in diffusion driven predator-prey systems: Effect of toxin producing phytoplankton and spatial heterogeneities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Kumari, Nitu; Rai, Vikas

2009-01-01

In this paper, dynamical complexities in two reaction-diffusion (RD) model systems are explored. A spatial heterogeneity in the form of linear spatial gradient in the reproductive growth rate of the phytoplankton is incorporated in both the model systems. Extra mortality of the zooplankton due to toxin production by the phytoplankton is included in the second reaction diffusion model system. Effect of toxin production and spatial heterogeneity in the model systems are studied. Toxin production does not seem to have an appreciable effect on the asymptotic dynamics of the model systems. On the other hand, spatial heterogeneity does influence the dynamics. In particular, it increases the frequency of occurrence of chaos as evident from two dimensional parameter scans. Both these model systems display short term recurrent chaos [Rai V. Chaos in natural populations: edge or wedge? Ecol Complex 2004;1: 127-38] as they reside on 'edges of chaos' (EOC) [Rai V, Upadhyay RK. Evolving to the edge of chaos: chance or necessity? Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2006;30:1074-87]. This suggests that the ecological systems have a tendency to evolve to EOC. The study corroborates the inferences drawn from an earlier study by Rai and Upadhyay [Rai V, Upadhyay RK. Evolving to the edge of chaos: chance or necessity? Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2006;30:1074-87]. The system's dynamics is largely unpredictable and admits bursts of short-term predictability.

A framework for widespread replication of a highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Dohyeong; Galeano, M Alicia Overstreet; Hull, Andrew; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2008-12-01

Preventive approaches to childhood lead poisoning are critical for addressing this longstanding environmental health concern. Moreover, increasing evidence of cognitive effects of blood lead levels system-based childhood lead exposure risk models, especially if executed at highly resolved spatial scales, can help identify children most at risk of lead exposure, as well as prioritize and direct housing and health-protective intervention programs. However, developing highly resolved spatial data requires labor-and time-intensive geocoding and analytical processes. In this study we evaluated the benefit of increased effort spent geocoding in terms of improved performance of lead exposure risk models. We constructed three childhood lead exposure risk models based on established methods but using different levels of geocoded data from blood lead surveillance, county tax assessors, and the 2000 U.S. Census for 18 counties in North Carolina. We used the results to predict lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit. The models performed well enough to identify high-risk areas for targeted intervention, even with a relatively low level of effort on geocoding. This study demonstrates the feasibility of widespread replication of highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk models. The models guide resource-constrained local health and housing departments and community-based organizations on how best to expend their efforts in preventing and mitigating lead exposure risk in their communities.

Characterizing the landscape dynamics of an invasive plant and risk of invasion using remote sensing.

Science.gov (United States)

Bradley, Bethany A; Mustard, John F

2006-06-01

Improved understanding of the spatial dynamics of invasive plant species may lead to more effective land management and reduced future invasion. Here, we identified the spatial extents of nonnative cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) in the north central Great Basin using remotely sensed data from Landsat MSS, TM, and ETM+. We compared cheatgrass extents in 1973 and 2001 to six spatially explicit landscape variables: elevation, aspect, hydrographic channels, cultivation, roads, and power lines. In 2001, Cheatgrass was 10% more likely to be found in elevation ranges from 1400 to 1700 m (although the data suggest a preferential invasion into lower elevations by 2001), 6% more likely on west and northwest facing slopes, and 3% more likely within hydrographic channels. Over this time period, cheatgrass expansion was also closely linked to proximity to land use. In 2001, cheatgrass was 20% more likely to be found within 3 km of cultivation, 13% more likely to be found within 700 m of a road, and 15% more likely to be found within 1 km of a power line. Finally, in 2001 cheatgrass was 26% more likely to be present within 150 m of areas occupied by cheatgrass in 1973. Using these relationships, we created a risk map of future cheatgrass invasion that may aid land management. These results highlight the importance of including land use variables and the extents of current plant invasion in predictions of future risk.

Visual-spatial ability is more important than motivation for novices in surgical simulator training: a preliminary study.

Science.gov (United States)

Schlickum, Marcus; Hedman, Leif; Felländer-Tsai, Li

2016-02-21

To investigate whether surgical simulation performance and previous video gaming experience would correlate with higher motivation to further train a specific simulator task and whether visual-spatial ability would rank higher in importance to surgical performance than the above. It was also examined whether or not motivation would correlate with a preference to choose a surgical specialty in the future and if simulator training would increase the interest in choosing that same work field. Motivation and general interest in surgery was measured pre- and post-training in 30 medical students at Karolinska Institutet who were tested in a laparoscopic surgical simulator in parallel with measurement of visual-spatial ability and self-estimated video gaming experience. Correlations between simulator performance metrics, visual-spatial ability and motivation were statistically analyzed using regression analysis. A good result in the first simulator trial correlated with higher self-determination index (r =-0.46, p=0.05) in male students. Visual-spatial ability was the most important underlying factor followed by intrinsic motivation score and finally video gaming experience (p=0.02, p=0.05, p=0.11) regarding simulator performance in male students. Simulator training increased interest in surgery when studying all subjects (p=0.01), male subjects (p=0.02) as well as subjects with low video gaming experience (p=0.02). This preliminary study highlights individual differences regarding the effect of simulator training on motivation that can be taken into account when designing simulator training curricula, although the sample size is quite small and findings should be interpreted carefully.

Spatial dynamics of Fabiana imbricata shrublands in northwestern Patagonia in relation to natural fires

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L. Ghermandi

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Fire is a critical disturbance in the structuring and functioning of most Mediterranean ecosystems. In northwestern Patagonia, vegetation patterns are strongly influenced by fire and environmental heterogeneity. Dendroecology, together with satellite imagery and GIS, have been demonstrated to be useful tools in studies that relate to fire effects with patches, patterns and species dynamics at landscape scale. Such studies can be approached from landscape ecology, which has evolved in the last years supported by the development of remote sensing and GIS technologies. This study evaluates the spatial dynamic of F. imbricata in response to fire using remote sensing, GIS and dendrochronology techniques, at landscape scale. Two sites were evaluated and one of them was affected by fire in the year 1999. The digital processing images (using the NBR spectral index and the dendroecological analysis verified this. A fire, occurring in 1978, was also detected by the analysis of F. imbricata growth rings. The relation between F. imbricata shrubland dynamics and spatial configuration with fire, land topography and hydrography was established in the study area.

Integrated spatial assessment of wind erosion risk in Hungary

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L. Pásztor

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Wind erosion susceptibility of Hungarian soils was mapped on the national level integrating three factors of the complex phenomenon of deflation (physical soil features, wind characteristics, and land use and land cover. Results of wind tunnel experiments on erodibility of representative soil samples were used for the parametrization of a countrywide map of soil texture compiled for the upper 5 cm layer of soil, which resulted in a map representing threshold wind velocity exceedance. Average wind velocity was spatially estimated with 0.5′ resolution using the Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenised Data Basis (MISH method elaborated for the spatial interpolation of surface meteorological elements. The probability of threshold wind velocity exceedance was determined based on values predicted by the soil texture map at the grid locations. Ratio values were further interpolated to a finer 1 ha resolution using sand and silt content of the uppermost (0–5 cm layer of soil as spatial co-variables. Land cover was also taken into account, excluding areas that are not relevant to wind erosion (forests, water bodies, settlements, etc., to spatially assess the risk of wind erosion. According to the resulting map of wind erosion susceptibility, about 10 % of the total area of Hungary can be identified as susceptible to wind erosion. The map gives more detailed insight into the spatial distribution of wind-affected areas in Hungary compared to previous studies.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics in Air Pollution Exposure Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Dias, Daniela; Tchepel, Oxana

2018-01-01

Analyzing individual exposure in urban areas offers several challenges where both the individual’s activities and air pollution levels demonstrate a large degree of spatial and temporal dynamics. This review article discusses the concepts, key elements, current developments in assessing personal exposure to urban air pollution (seventy-two studies reviewed) and respective advantages and disadvantages. A new conceptual structure to organize personal exposure assessment methods is proposed according to two classification criteria: (i) spatial-temporal variations of individuals’ activities (point-fixed or trajectory based) and (ii) characterization of air quality (variable or uniform). This review suggests that the spatial and temporal variability of urban air pollution levels in combination with indoor exposures and individual’s time-activity patterns are key elements of personal exposure assessment. In the literature review, the majority of revised studies (44 studies) indicate that the trajectory based with variable air quality approach provides a promising framework for tackling the important question of inter- and intra-variability of individual exposure. However, future quantitative comparison between the different approaches should be performed, and the selection of the most appropriate approach for exposure quantification should take into account the purpose of the health study. This review provides a structured basis for the intercomparing of different methodologies and to make their advantages and limitations more transparent in addressing specific research objectives. PMID:29558426

Dynamic and Geological-Ecological Spatial Planning Approach in Hot Mud Volcano Affected Area in Porong-Sidoarjo

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Haryo Sulistyarso

2010-08-01

Full Text Available By May 29t h 2006 with an average hot mud volcano volume of 100,000 m3 /per day, disasters on well kick (i.e. Lapindo Brantas Ltd. in Banjar Panji 1 drilling well have deviated the Spatial Planning of Sidoarjo’s Regency for 2003- 2013. Regional Development Concept that is aimed at developing triangle growth pole model on SIBORIAN (SIdoarjo-JaBOn-KRIaAN could not be implemented. This planning cannot be applied due to environmental imbalance to sub district of Porong that was damaged by hot mud volcano. In order to anticipate deviations of the Regional and Spatial Planning of Sidoarjo Regency for 2003-2013, a review on regional planning and dynamic implementation as well as Spatial Planning Concept based on geologicalecological condition are required, especially the regions affected by well kick disaster. The spatial analysis is based on the geological and ecological condition by using an overlay technique using several maps of hot mud volcano affected areas. In this case, dynamic implementation is formulated to the responsiblity plan that can happen at any time because of uncertain ending of the hot mud volcano eruption disaster in Porong. The hot mud volcano affected areas in the Sidoarjo’s Spatial Planning 2009-2029 have been decided as a geologic protected zone. The result of this research is scenarios of spatial planning for the affected area (short term, medium term and long term spatial planning scenarios.

Dynamic spatial coding within the dorsal frontoparietal network during a visual search task.

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Wieland H Sommer

Full Text Available To what extent are the left and right visual hemifields spatially coded in the dorsal frontoparietal attention network? In many experiments with neglect patients, the left hemisphere shows a contralateral hemifield preference, whereas the right hemisphere represents both hemifields. This pattern of spatial coding is often used to explain the right-hemispheric dominance of lesions causing hemispatial neglect. However, pathophysiological mechanisms of hemispatial neglect are controversial because recent experiments on healthy subjects produced conflicting results regarding the spatial coding of visual hemifields. We used an fMRI paradigm that allowed us to distinguish two attentional subprocesses during a visual search task. Either within the left or right hemifield subjects first attended to stationary locations (spatial orienting and then shifted their attentional focus to search for a target line. Dynamic changes in spatial coding of the left and right hemifields were observed within subregions of the dorsal front-parietal network: During stationary spatial orienting, we found the well-known spatial pattern described above, with a bilateral hemifield representation in the right hemisphere and a contralateral preference in the left hemisphere. However, during search, the right hemisphere had a contralateral preference and the left hemisphere equally represented both hemifields. This finding leads to novel perspectives regarding models of visuospatial attention and hemispatial neglect.

Dynamic occupational risk model for offshore operations in harsh environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Guozheng; Khan, Faisal; Wang, Hangzhou; Leighton, Shelly; Yuan, Zhi; Liu, Hanwen

2016-01-01

The expansion of offshore oil exploitation into remote areas (e.g., Arctic) with harsh environments has significantly increased occupational risks. Among occupational accidents, slips, trips and falls from height (STFs) account for a significant portion. Thus, a dynamic risk assessment of the three main occupational accidents is meaningful to decrease offshore occupational risks. Bow-tie Models (BTs) were established in this study for the risk analysis of STFs considering extreme environmental factors. To relax the limitations of BTs, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed based on BTs to dynamically assess risks of STFs. The occurrence and consequence probabilities of STFs were respectively calculated using BTs and BNs, and the obtained probabilities verified BNs' rationality and advantage. Furthermore, the probability adaptation for STFs was accomplished in a specific scenario with BNs. Finally, posterior probabilities of basic events were achieved through diagnostic analysis, and critical basic events were analyzed based on their posterior likelihood to cause occupational accidents. The highlight is systematically analyzing STF accidents for offshore operations and dynamically assessing their risks considering the harsh environmental factors. This study can guide the allocation of prevention resources and benefit the safety management of offshore operations. - Highlights: • A novel dynamic risk model for occupational accidents. • First time consideration of harsh environment in occupational accident modeling. • A Bayesian network based model for risk management strategies.

Noninvasive investigation of exocrine pancreatic function: Feasibility of cine dynamic MRCP with a spatially selective inversion-recovery pulse.

Science.gov (United States)

Yasokawa, Kazuya; Ito, Katsuyoshi; Tamada, Tsutomu; Yamamoto, Akira; Hayashida, Minoru; Tanimoto, Daigo; Higaki, Atsushi; Noda, Yasufumi; Kido, Ayumu

2015-11-01

To investigate the feasibility of noncontrast-enhanced cine dynamic magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) with a spatially selective inversion-recovery (IR) pulse for evaluating exocrine pancreatic function in comparison with the N-benzoyl-L-tyrosyl-p-aminobenzoic acid (BT-PABA) test as a pancreatic exocrine function test. Twenty subjects with or without chronic pancreatitis were included. MRCP with a spatially selective IR pulse was repeated every 15 seconds for 5 minutes to acquire a total of 20 images (cine-dynamic MRCP). The median and mean frequency of the observation (the number of times) and the moving distance (mean secretion grading scores) of pancreatic juice inflow on cine-dynamic MRCP were compared with a BT-PABA test. The urinary PABA excretion rate (%) had significant positive correlations with both the mean secretion grade (r = 0.66, P = 0.002) and frequency of secretory inflow (r = 0.62, P = 0.004) in cine dynamic MRCP. Both the mean frequency of observations of pancreatic secretory inflow (1.4 ± 1.6 times vs. 14.3 ± 4.2 times, P Cine dynamic MRCP with a spatially selective IR pulse may have potential for estimating the pancreatic exocrine function noninvasively as a substitute for the BT-PABA test. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Spatial Determinants of Urban Growth in Suzhou, China

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Ling Zhang

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban growth and models its spatial determinants in China through a case study of Suzhou, a rapidly industrializing and globalizing city. We conducted spatial analysis on land use data derived from multi-temporal remote sensing images of Suzhou from 1986 to 2008. Three urban growth types, namely infilling, edge-expansion, and leapfrog, were identified. We used landscape metrics to quantify the temporal trend of urban growth in Suzhou. During these 22 years, Suzhou’s urbanization changed from bottom-up rural urbanization to city-based top-down urban expansion. The underlying mechanism changed from TVE (town village enterprise driven rural industrialization to FDI (foreign direct investment driven development zone fever. Furthermore, we employed both global and local logistic regressions to model the probability of urban land conversion against a set of spatial variables. The global logistic regression model found the significance of proximity, neighborhood conditions, and socioeconomic factors. The logistic geographically weighted regression (GWR model improved the global regression model with better model goodness-of-fit and higher prediction accuracy. More importantly, the local parameter estimates of variables enabled us to exam spatial variations of the influences of variables on urban growth in Suzhou.

Reliability and Minimum Detectable Change of Temporal-Spatial, Kinematic, and Dynamic Stability Measures during Perturbed Gait.

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Christopher A Rábago

Full Text Available Temporal-spatial, kinematic variability, and dynamic stability measures collected during perturbation-based assessment paradigms are often used to identify dysfunction associated with gait instability. However, it remains unclear which measures are most reliable for detecting and tracking responses to perturbations. This study systematically determined the between-session reliability and minimum detectable change values of temporal-spatial, kinematic variability, and dynamic stability measures during three types of perturbed gait. Twenty young healthy adults completed two identical testing sessions two weeks apart, comprised of an unperturbed and three perturbed (cognitive, physical, and visual walking conditions in a virtual reality environment. Within each session, perturbation responses were compared to unperturbed walking using paired t-tests. Between-session reliability and minimum detectable change values were also calculated for each measure and condition. All temporal-spatial, kinematic variability and dynamic stability measures demonstrated fair to excellent between-session reliability. Minimal detectable change values, normalized to mean values ranged from 1-50%. Step width mean and variability measures demonstrated the greatest response to perturbations with excellent between-session reliability and low minimum detectable change values. Orbital stability measures demonstrated specificity to perturbation direction and sensitivity with excellent between-session reliability and low minimum detectable change values. We observed substantially greater between-session reliability and lower minimum detectable change values for local stability measures than previously described which may be the result of averaging across trials within a session and using velocity versus acceleration data for reconstruction of state spaces. Across all perturbation types, temporal-spatial, orbital and local measures were the most reliable measures with the

Dynamic nuclear polarization and optimal control spatial-selective 13C MRI and MRS

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vinding, Mads Sloth; Laustsen, Christoffer; Maximov, Ivan I.

2013-01-01

. This is achieved through the development of spatial-selective single-shot spiral-readout MRI and MRS experiments combined with dynamic nuclear polarization hyperpolarized [1-13C]pyruvate on a 4.7T pre-clinical MR scanner. The method stands out from related techniques by facilitating anatomic shaped region...

Spatial and temporal dynamics of the genetic organization of small mammal populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, M.H.; Manlove, M.N.; Joule, J.

1978-01-01

A functional population is a group of organisms and their offspring that contributes to a common gene pool within a certain area and time period. It is also the unit of evolution and should be viewed both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Selection, drift, dispersal, and mutation can alter the composition of populations. Spatial heterogeneity in allele frequencies argues for a conceptual model that has a series of relatively small populations semi-isolated from one another. Because of the relatively high levels of genetic variability characteristic of most mammalian species, significant amounts of gene flow between these spatially subdivided populations must occur when longer time periods are considered. Fluctuations in the genetic structure of populations seem to be important in altering the fitness of the individuals within the populations. The interaction of populations through gene flow is important in changing the levels of intrapopulational genetic variability. Populations can be characterized as existing on a continuum from relatively stable to unstable numbers and by other associated changes in their characteristics. Temporal changes in allele frequency occur in a variety of mammals. Conceptually, a species can be viewed as a series of dynamic populations that vary in numbers and quality in both a spatial and temporal context even over short distances and time periods. Short term changes in the quality of individuals in a population can be important in altering the short term dynamics of a population

Using Spatial Reinforcement Learning to Build Forest Wildfire Dynamics Models From Satellite Images

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Sriram Ganapathi Subramanian

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Machine learning algorithms have increased tremendously in power in recent years but have yet to be fully utilized in many ecology and sustainable resource management domains such as wildlife reserve design, forest fire management, and invasive species spread. One thing these domains have in common is that they contain dynamics that can be characterized as a spatially spreading process (SSP, which requires many parameters to be set precisely to model the dynamics, spread rates, and directional biases of the elements which are spreading. We present related work in artificial intelligence and machine learning for SSP sustainability domains including forest wildfire prediction. We then introduce a novel approach for learning in SSP domains using reinforcement learning (RL where fire is the agent at any cell in the landscape and the set of actions the fire can take from a location at any point in time includes spreading north, south, east, or west or not spreading. This approach inverts the usual RL setup since the dynamics of the corresponding Markov Decision Process (MDP is a known function for immediate wildfire spread. Meanwhile, we learn an agent policy for a predictive model of the dynamics of a complex spatial process. Rewards are provided for correctly classifying which cells are on fire or not compared with satellite and other related data. We examine the behavior of five RL algorithms on this problem: value iteration, policy iteration, Q-learning, Monte Carlo Tree Search, and Asynchronous Advantage Actor-Critic (A3C. We compare to a Gaussian process-based supervised learning approach and also discuss the relation of our approach to manually constructed, state-of-the-art methods from forest wildfire modeling. We validate our approach with satellite image data of two massive wildfire events in Northern Alberta, Canada; the Fort McMurray fire of 2016 and the Richardson fire of 2011. The results show that we can learn predictive, agent

Creating a spatially-explicit index: a method for assessing the global wildfire-water risk

Science.gov (United States)

Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

2017-04-01

The wildfire-water risk (WWR) has been defined as the potential for wildfires to adversely affect water resources that are important for downstream ecosystems and human water needs for adequate water quantity and quality, therefore compromising the security of their water supply. While tools and methods are numerous for watershed-scale risk analysis, the development of a toolbox for the large-scale evaluation of the wildfire risk to water security has only started recently. In order to provide managers and policy-makers with an adequate tool, we implemented a method for the spatial analysis of the global WWR based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. As this approach heavily relies on data, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. When appropriate, we applied a hydrological routing function to our indicators in order to simulate downstream accumulation of potentially harmful material. Each indicator was then assigned a DPSIR category. We collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the WWR. A thorough sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to understand the relationship between the final risk values and the spatial pattern of each category used during the indexation. For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, to get a sense of regional DPSIR specificities. This rather simple method does not necessitate the use of complex physical models and provides a scalable and efficient tool

Integration of temporal and spatial properties of dynamic connectivity networks for automatic diagnosis of brain disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Jie, Biao; Liu, Mingxia; Shen, Dinggang

2018-07-01

Functional connectivity networks (FCNs) using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) have been applied to the analysis and diagnosis of brain disease, such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) and its prodrome, i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Different from conventional studies focusing on static descriptions on functional connectivity (FC) between brain regions in rs-fMRI, recent studies have resorted to dynamic connectivity networks (DCNs) to characterize the dynamic changes of FC, since dynamic changes of FC may indicate changes in macroscopic neural activity patterns in cognitive and behavioral aspects. However, most of the existing studies only investigate the temporal properties of DCNs (e.g., temporal variability of FC between specific brain regions), ignoring the important spatial properties of the network (e.g., spatial variability of FC associated with a specific brain region). Also, emerging evidence on FCNs has suggested that, besides temporal variability, there is significant spatial variability of activity foci over time. Hence, integrating both temporal and spatial properties of DCNs can intuitively promote the performance of connectivity-network-based learning methods. In this paper, we first define a new measure to characterize the spatial variability of DCNs, and then propose a novel learning framework to integrate both temporal and spatial variabilities of DCNs for automatic brain disease diagnosis. Specifically, we first construct DCNs from the rs-fMRI time series at successive non-overlapping time windows. Then, we characterize the spatial variability of a specific brain region by computing the correlation of functional sequences (i.e., the changing profile of FC between a pair of brain regions within all time windows) associated with this region. Furthermore, we extract both temporal variabilities and spatial variabilities from DCNs as features, and integrate them for classification by using manifold regularized multi

A 'dynamic' landscape of fear: prey responses to spatiotemporal variations in predation risk across the lunar cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, M S; Fieberg, J; Swanson, A; Kosmala, M; Packer, C

2017-11-01

Ambiguous empirical support for 'landscapes of fear' in natural systems may stem from failure to consider dynamic temporal changes in predation risk. The lunar cycle dramatically alters night-time visibility, with low luminosity increasing hunting success of African lions. We used camera-trap data from Serengeti National Park to examine nocturnal anti-predator behaviours of four herbivore species. Interactions between predictable fluctuations in night-time luminosity and the underlying risk-resource landscape shaped herbivore distribution, herding propensity and the incidence of 'relaxed' behaviours. Buffalo responded least to temporal risk cues and minimised risk primarily through spatial redistribution. Gazelle and zebra made decisions based on current light levels and lunar phase, and wildebeest responded to lunar phase alone. These three species avoided areas where likelihood of encountering lions was high and changed their behaviours in risky areas to minimise predation threat. These patterns support the hypothesis that fear landscapes vary heterogeneously in both space and time. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Large portfolio risk management and optimal portfolio allocation with dynamic elliptical copulas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin Xisong

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Previous research has focused on the importance of modeling the multivariate distribution for optimal portfolio allocation and active risk management. However, existing dynamic models are not easily applied to high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we extend the framework of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation/Equicorrelation and an extreme value approach into a series of Dynamic Conditional Elliptical Copulas. We investigate risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES for passive portfolios and dynamic optimal portfolios using Mean-Variance and ES criteria for a sample of US stocks over a period of 10 years. Our results suggest that (1 Modeling the marginal distribution is important for dynamic high-dimensional multivariate models. (2 Neglecting the dynamic dependence in the copula causes over-aggressive risk management. (3 The DCC/DECO Gaussian copula and t-copula work very well for both VaR and ES. (4 Grouped t-copulas and t-copulas with dynamic degrees of freedom further match the fat tail. (5 Correctly modeling the dependence structure makes an improvement in portfolio optimization with respect to tail risk. (6 Models driven by multivariate t innovations with exogenously given degrees of freedom provide a flexible and applicable alternative for optimal portfolio risk management.

Micro and Macro Spatial Networks in Two Contexts: Collaboration and Interpersonal Risk Communication

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lee, Ju-Sung; van Duinen, Rianne; Filatova, Tatiana

2015-01-01

Networks researchers have been learning the prominent role geographic/physical proximity plays in network dynamics. In this paper, we examine spatial distance in the context of two distinct social networks differing in size, geographic boundaries, and relation types. The first network comprises

Spatial and temporal analyses for multiscale monitoring of landslides: Examples from Northern Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Andrew; McKinley, Jennifer; Hughes, David

2013-04-01

Landslides in the form of debris flows, large scale rotational features and composite mudflows impact transport corridors cutting off local communities and in some instances result in loss of life. This study presents landslide monitoring methods used for predicting and characterising landslide activity along transport corridors. A variety of approaches are discussed: desk based risk assessment of slopes using Geographical Information Systems (GIS); Aerial LiDAR surveys and Terrestrial LiDAR monitoring and field instrumentation of selected sites. A GIS based case study is discussed which provides risk assessment for the potential of slope stability issues. Layers incorporated within the system include Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, aspect, solid and drift geology and groundwater conditions. Additional datasets include consequence of failure. These are combined within a risk model, presented as likelihoods of failure. This integrated spatial approach for slope risk assessment provides the user with a preliminary risk assessment of sites. An innovative "Flexviewer" web-based server interface allows users to view data without needing advanced GIS techniques to gather information about selected areas. On a macro landscape scale, Aerial LiDAR (ALS) surveys are used for the characterisation of landslides from the surrounding terrain. DEMs are generated along with terrain derivatives: slope, curvature and various measures of terrain roughness. Spatial analysis of terrain morphological parameters allow characterisation of slope stability issues and are used to predict areas of potential failure or recently failure terrain. On a local scale ground monitoring approaches are employed for the monitoring of changes in selected slopes using ALS and risk assessment approaches. Results are shown from on-going bimonthly Terrestrial LiDAR (TLS) monitoring of the slope within a site specific geodectically referenced network. This has allowed a classification of changes in the

Neighborhood Poverty and Nonmarital Fertility: Spatial and Temporal Dimensions

Science.gov (United States)

South, Scott J.; Crowder, Kyle

2010-01-01

Data from 4,855 respondents to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics were used to examine spatial and temporal dimensions of the effect of neighborhood poverty on teenage premarital childbearing. Although high poverty in the immediate neighborhood increased the risk of becoming an unmarried parent, high poverty in surrounding neighborhoods reduced…

Optimal Risk Reduction in the Railway Industry by Using Dynamic Programming

OpenAIRE

Michael Todinov; Eberechi Weli

2013-01-01

The paper suggests for the first time the use of dynamic programming techniques for optimal risk reduction in the railway industry. It is shown that by using the concept ‘amount of removed risk by a risk reduction option’, the problem related to optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximum risk reduction in the railway industry can be reduced to an optimisation problem from dynamic programming. For n risk reduction options and size of the available risk reduction budget B (expres...

Influence of land-use dynamics on natural hazard risk

Science.gov (United States)

Piazza, Giacomo; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

2016-04-01

In the recent past the magnitude and frequency of natural hazard events has increased notably worldwide, along with global GDP. A higher number of elements are exposed to natural events, therefore the risk is higher. Both estimated losses and understanding about natural hazards have increased during the past decades, which is contradictory as we may logically think. Risk is increasing, due to climate change and societal change: more severe hazards are happening due to changing climatic patterns and conditions, while society is concentrating assets and people in punctual places leading to a higher exposure. Increasing surface of settled area and the concentration of highly valuable assets (e.g. technology) in exposed areas lead to higher probability of losses. Human use of land resources, namely landuse, is the product of human needs and biophysical characteristics of the land. Landuse involves arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. These changes are due to many reasons, or driving factors: socio-economical, environmental, accessibility to land, land-tenure, etc. The change of those factors may cause many effects and impacts, at various levels and at different time spans. The relation between driving factors and impacts is not straight. It is although a complex interrelation that turns around two central questions: (1) what drives landuse changes and why and (2) what are the impacts on the environment and on the human society of these changes, regarding to natural hazards. The aim of this paper is to analyse the spatio-temporal environmental changes referring to exposure as well as to test the possibilities and limitations of the land use change model Dyna-CLUEs in a mountain region taking parts of the Republic of Austria as an example, and simulating the future landuse dynamics until 2030. We selected an area composed by eighteen municipalities in the Ill-Walgau in the Austrian federal

Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of seagrass landscapes using time-series remote sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Lyons, Mitchell B.; Roelfsema, Chris M.; Phinn, Stuart R.

2013-03-01

The spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrasses have been well studied at the leaf to patch scales, however, the link to large spatial extent landscape and population dynamics is still unresolved in seagrass ecology. Traditional remote sensing approaches have lacked the temporal resolution and consistency to appropriately address this issue. This study uses two high temporal resolution time-series of thematic seagrass cover maps to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrass at both an inter- and intra-annual time scales, one of the first globally to do so at this scale. Previous work by the authors developed an object-based approach to map seagrass cover level distribution from a long term archive of Landsat TM and ETM+ images on the Eastern Banks (≈200 km2), Moreton Bay, Australia. In this work a range of trend and time-series analysis methods are demonstrated for a time-series of 23 annual maps from 1988 to 2010 and a time-series of 16 monthly maps during 2008-2010. Significant new insight was presented regarding the inter- and intra-annual dynamics of seagrass persistence over time, seagrass cover level variability, seagrass cover level trajectory, and change in area of seagrass and cover levels over time. Overall we found that there was no significant decline in total seagrass area on the Eastern Banks, but there was a significant decline in seagrass cover level condition. A case study of two smaller communities within the Eastern Banks that experienced a decline in both overall seagrass area and condition are examined in detail, highlighting possible differences in environmental and process drivers. We demonstrate how trend and time-series analysis enabled seagrass distribution to be appropriately assessed in context of its spatial and temporal history and provides the ability to not only quantify change, but also describe the type of change. We also demonstrate the potential use of time-series analysis products to investigate seagrass growth and

NMR with generalized dynamics of spin and spatial coordinates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chang Jae.

1987-11-01

This work is concerned with theoretical and experimental aspects of the generalized dynamics of nuclear spin and spatial coordinates under magnetic-field pulses and mechanical motions. The main text begins with an introduction to the concept of ''fictitious'' interactions. A systematic method for constructing fictitious spin-1/2 operators is given. The interaction of spins with a quantized-field is described. The concept of the fictitious interactions under the irradiation of multiple pulses is utilized to design sequences for selectively averaging linear and bilinear operators. Relations between the low-field sequences and high-field iterative schemes are clarified. These relations and the transformation properties of the spin operators are exploited to develop schemes for heteronuclear decoupling of multi-level systems. The resulting schemes are evaluated for heteronuclear decoupling of a dilute spin-1/2 from a spin-1 in liquid crystal samples and from a homonuclear spin-1/2 pair in liquids. A relation between the spin and the spatial variables is discussed. The transformation properties of the spin operators are applied to spatial coordinates and utilized to develop methods for removing the orientational dependence responsible for line broadening in a powder sample. Elimination of the second order quadrupole effects, as well as the first order anisotropies is discussed. It is shown that various sources of line broadening can effectively be eliminated by spinning and/or hopping the sample about judiciously chosen axes along with appropriate radio-frequency pulse sequences

The impact of land use and spatial changes on desertification risk in degraded areas in Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saowanee Wijitkosum

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Land use, which relates to land cover, is one of the influential factors associated with desertification risk. A study was conducted on the impact of land use and spatial changes on desertification risk in Huay Sai Royal Development Study Centre in southern Thailand. The study used spatial analysis and the MEDALUS model to investigate the extent of land degradation, land use changes and desertification risk in the study area from 1990 to 2010. The Study examined three groups of factors: soils, climate and human activity to classify the severity of desertification risk. The study findings indicate that most areas (74.4% in the Huay Sai area were at high risk of desertification, and the risk remained high (77.2% in 2010. However, the areas classified as at severe risk of desertification decreased at 4.2% per annum. The study finds that land use changes influenced desertification risk.

A literature-based preliminary characterization of risks in the nuclear waste management system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daling, P.M.; Rhoads, R.E.; Van Luik, A.E.

1990-04-01

The objectives of this study were to (1) review the literature containing information on risks in the nuclear waste management system and (2) use this information to develop preliminary estimates of the potential magnitudes of these risks. Information was collected on a broad range of risk categories to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in communicating information about the risks in the waste management system. The study, which was completed prior to passage of the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, examined all of the portions of the nuclear waste management system envisioned by the DOE in the 1985 ''Mission Plant for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program.'' As such, there may be statements in this paper that are not consistent with current DOE positions. The scope of this paper includes the repository, the integral Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility, and the transportation system that supports the repository and the MRS facility. Based on the results of this analysis, it is concluded that the radiological risks in the waste management system are small relative to nonradiological risks and relative to the risks of exposure to natural background radiation. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

A multi-scale spatial model of hepatitis-B viral dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quentin Cangelosi

Full Text Available Chronic hepatitis B viral infection (HBV afflicts around 250 million individuals globally and few options for treatment exist. Once infected, the virus entrenches itself in the liver with a notoriously resilient colonisation of viral DNA (covalently-closed circular DNA, cccDNA. The majority of infections are cleared, yet we do not understand why 5% of adult immune responses fail leading to the chronic state with its collateral morbid effects such as cirrhosis and eventual hepatic carcinoma. The liver environment exhibits particularly complex spatial structures for metabolic processing and corresponding distributions of nutrients and transporters that may influence successful HBV entrenchment. We assembled a multi-scaled mathematical model of the fundamental hepatic processing unit, the sinusoid, into a whole-liver representation to investigate the impact of this intrinsic spatial heterogeneity on the HBV dynamic. Our results suggest HBV may be exploiting spatial aspects of the liver environment. We distributed increased HBV replication rates coincident with elevated levels of nutrients in the sinusoid entry point (the periportal region in tandem with similar distributions of hepatocyte transporters key to HBV invasion (e.g., the sodium-taurocholate cotransporting polypeptide or NTCP, or immune system activity. According to our results, such co-alignment of spatial distributions may contribute to persistence of HBV infections, depending on spatial distributions and intensity of immune response as well. Moreover, inspired by previous HBV models and experimentalist suggestions of extra-hepatic HBV replication, we tested in our model influence of HBV blood replication and observe an overall nominal effect on persistent liver infection. Regardless, we confirm prior results showing a solo cccDNA is sufficient to re-infect an entire liver, with corresponding concerns for transplantation and treatment.

Managing dynamic epidemiological risks through trade

Science.gov (United States)

Horan, Richard D.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Finnoff, David; Wolf, Christopher A.

2015-01-01

There is growing concern that trade, by connecting geographically isolated regions, unintentionally facilitates the spread of invasive pathogens and pests – forms of biological pollution that pose significant risks to ecosystem and human health. We use a bioeconomic framework to examine whether trade always increases private risks, focusing specifically on pathogen risks from live animal trade. When the pathogens have already established and traders bear some private risk, we find two results that run counter to the conventional wisdom on trade. First, uncertainty about the disease status of individual animals held in inventory may increase the incentives to trade relative to the disease-free case. Second, trade may facilitate reduced long-run disease prevalence among buyers. These results arise because disease risks are endogenous due to dynamic feedback processes involving valuable inventories, and markets facilitate the management of private risks that producers face with or without trade. PMID:25914431

Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

Science.gov (United States)

Cam, Hasan

2015-05-01

Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

Monitoring hillslope moisture dynamics with surface ERT for enhancing spatial significance of hydrometric point measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Hübner, R.; Heller, K.; Günther, T.; Kleber, A.

2015-01-01

Besides floodplains, hillslopes are basic units that mainly control water movement and flow pathways within catchments of subdued mountain ranges. The structure of their shallow subsurface affects water balance, e.g. infiltration, retention, and runoff. Nevertheless, there is still a gap in the knowledge of the hydrological dynamics on hillslopes, notably due to the lack of generalization and transferability. This study presents a robust multi-method framework of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) in addition to hydrometric point measurements, transferring hydrometric data into higher spatial scales to obtain additional patterns of distribution and dynamics of soil moisture on a hillslope. A geoelectrical monitoring in a small catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains was carried out at weekly intervals from May to December 2008 to image seasonal moisture dynamics on the hillslope scale. To link water content and electrical resistivity, the parameters of Archie's law were determined using different core samples. To optimize inversion parameters and methods, the derived spatial and temporal water content distribution was compared to tensiometer data. The results from ERT measurements show a strong correlation with the hydrometric data. The response is congruent to the soil tension data. Water content calculated from the ERT profile shows similar variations as that of water content from soil moisture sensors. Consequently, soil moisture dynamics on the hillslope scale may be determined not only by expensive invasive punctual hydrometric measurements, but also by minimally invasive time-lapse ERT, provided that pedo-/petrophysical relationships are known. Since ERT integrates larger spatial scales, a combination with hydrometric point measurements improves the understanding of the ongoing hydrological processes and better suits identification of heterogeneities.

Spatial conditions - the 3. supervisor in project organized teaching?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bering Keiding, Tina

through reflection of its own border: is this new issue inside or outside the project. Individual rooms make it easier for the project to stabilize around its eigenvalues, but also enhance the risk of cognitive jog-trot. The challenge in this case becomes to seek out disturbances which can initiate new......The contribution presents a pilot study on project work situated in different spatial contexts. The main question for the study is if and how spatial conditions influence the interaction within and between projects. Possible answers to the question are sought through observations, informal...... interviews and questionnaires. The empirical findings are reflected in a Luhmann-based re-description of project organized group based teaching (Keiding 2008). Preliminary conclusions indicate that one big difference between open-space studio and individual group rooms is related to the immediate public...

Spatial dynamics of overbank sedimentation in floodplain systems

Science.gov (United States)

Pierce, Aaron R.; King, S.L.

2008-01-01

Floodplains provide valuable social and ecological functions, and understanding the rates and patterns of overbank sedimentation is critical for river basin management and rehabilitation. Channelization of alluvial systems throughout the world has altered hydrological and sedimentation processes within floodplain ecosystems. In the loess belt region of the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley of the United States, channelization, the geology of the region, and past land-use practices have resulted in the formation of dozens of valley plugs in stream channels and the formation of shoals at the confluence of stream systems. Valley plugs completely block stream channels with sediment and debris and can result in greater deposition rates on floodplain surfaces. Presently, however, information is lacking on the rates and variability of overbank sedimentation associated with valley plugs and shoals. We quantified deposition rates and textures in floodplains along channelized streams that contained valley plugs and shoals, in addition to floodplains occurring along an unchannelized stream, to improve our understanding of overbank sedimentation associated with channelized streams. Feldspar clay marker horizons and marker poles were used to measure floodplain deposition from 2002 to 2005 and data were analyzed with geospatial statistics to determine the spatial dynamics of sedimentation within the floodplains. Mean sediment deposition rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.67??cm/y at unchannelized sites, 0.16 to 2.27??cm/y at shoal sites, and 3.44 to 6.20??cm/y at valley plug sites. Valley plug sites had greater rates of deposition, and the deposited sediments contained more coarse sand material than either shoal or unchannelized sites. A total of 59 of 183 valley plug study plots had mean deposition rates > 5??cm/y. The geospatial analyses showed that the spatial dynamics of sedimentation can be influenced by the formation of valley plugs and shoals on channelized streams; however

Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

2010-12-01

Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

Microfabricated physical spatial gradients for investigating cell migration and invasion dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Mak

Full Text Available We devise a novel assay that introduces micro-architectures into highly confining microchannels to probe the decision making processes of migrating cells. The conditions are meant to mimic the tight spaces in the physiological environment that cancer cells encounter during metastasis within the matrix dense stroma and during intravasation and extravasation through the vascular wall. In this study we use the assay to investigate the relative probabilities of a cell 1 permeating and 2 repolarizing (turning around when it migrates into a spatially confining region. We observe the existence of both states even within a single cell line, indicating phenotypic heterogeneity in cell migration invasiveness and persistence. We also show that varying the spatial gradient of the taper can induce behavioral changes in cells, and different cell types respond differently to spatial changes. Particularly, for bovine aortic endothelial cells (BAECs, higher spatial gradients induce more cells to permeate (60% than lower gradients (12%. Furthermore, highly metastatic breast cancer cells (MDA-MB-231 demonstrate a more invasive and permeative nature (87% than non-metastatic breast epithelial cells (MCF-10A (25%. We examine the migration dynamics of cells in the tapered region and derive characteristic constants that quantify this transition process. Our data indicate that cell response to physical spatial gradients is both cell-type specific and heterogeneous within a cell population, analogous to the behaviors reported to occur during tumor progression. Incorporation of micro-architectures in confined channels enables the probing of migration behaviors specific to defined geometries that mimic in vivo microenvironments.

Chaotic dynamic behavior analysis and control for a financial risk system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xiao-Dan; Zheng Yuan; Liu Xiang-Dong; Liu Cheng

2013-01-01

According to the risk management process of financial markets, a financial risk dynamic system is constructed in this paper. Through analyzing the basic dynamic properties, we obtain the conditions for stability and bifurcation of the system based on Hopf bifurcation theory of nonlinear dynamic systems. In order to make the system's chaos disappear, we select the feedback gain matrix to design a class of chaotic controller. Numerical simulations are performed to reveal the change process of financial market risk. It is shown that, when the parameter of risk transmission rate changes, the system gradually comes into chaos from the asymptotically stable state through bifurcation. The controller can then control the chaos effectively

Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, Brandon Road Lock and Dam Invasive Species Control Measures

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-01

Decision makers must include control-measure monitoring and emergency “interventions” to insure safety. The Coast Guard operational commanders...system” incorporates a travelling car on a rail above the barge-loading wharf to prevent loading personnel, cargo surveyors, or others from falling...to the Gulf of Mexico . As “Loopers”, they will have already transited the CSSC electric barriers. Preliminary Marine Safety Risk Assessment, BRLD

Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis; Volume 2, Figures [and] Volume 3, Technical Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R. [Nevada Univ., Las Vegas, NV (United States). Transportation Research Center

1991-05-31

This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history.

The dynamics of change in decision making under risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milićević Aleksandar

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of this study was to investigate the dynamics of decision making under risk. In three experiments this dynamics have been explored with respect to probability of outcome and with respect to frame, i.e. the way the outcomes of the alternatives have been specified. The process of decision making was explored within a framework of expected utility and Prospect theory. The outcomes of alternatives as well as their probabilities were quantitatively specified (so that the expected value of a risk alternative was equal to the value of a non-risk alternative. The results of experiments indicate that the attitude towards risk (risk-proneness vs. risk-averseness depends on the outcome probability and the way the outcomes were specified (i.e. positive/negative frame. It was also demonstrated that content strongly affects the choices made in decision making. This outcome is somewhat unexpected and requires additional empirical evaluation.

Genetic risk prediction using a spatial autoregressive model with adaptive lasso.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Yalu; Shen, Xiaoxi; Lu, Qing

2018-05-31

With rapidly evolving high-throughput technologies, studies are being initiated to accelerate the process toward precision medicine. The collection of the vast amounts of sequencing data provides us with great opportunities to systematically study the role of a deep catalog of sequencing variants in risk prediction. Nevertheless, the massive amount of noise signals and low frequencies of rare variants in sequencing data pose great analytical challenges on risk prediction modeling. Motivated by the development in spatial statistics, we propose a spatial autoregressive model with adaptive lasso (SARAL) for risk prediction modeling using high-dimensional sequencing data. The SARAL is a set-based approach, and thus, it reduces the data dimension and accumulates genetic effects within a single-nucleotide variant (SNV) set. Moreover, it allows different SNV sets having various magnitudes and directions of effect sizes, which reflects the nature of complex diseases. With the adaptive lasso implemented, SARAL can shrink the effects of noise SNV sets to be zero and, thus, further improve prediction accuracy. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that, overall, SARAL is comparable to, if not better than, the genomic best linear unbiased prediction method. The method is further illustrated by an application to the sequencing data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk factors and spatial distribution of Schistosoma mansoni infection among primary school children in Mbita District, Western Kenya.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sachiyo Nagi

2014-07-01

Full Text Available An increasing risk of Schistosoma mansoni infection has been observed around Lake Victoria, western Kenya since the 1970s. Understanding local transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis is crucial in curtailing increased risk of infection.We carried out a cross sectional study on a population of 310 children from eight primary schools. Overall, a total of 238 (76.8% children were infected with S. mansoni, while seven (2.3% had S. haematobium. The prevalence of hookworm, Trichuris trichiura and Ascaris lumbricoides were 6.1%, 5.2% and 2.3%, respectively. Plasmodium falciparum was the only malaria parasite detected (12.0%. High local population density within a 1 km radius around houses was identified as a major independent risk factor of S. mansoni infection. A spatial cluster of high infection risk was detected around the Mbita causeway following adjustment for population density and other potential risk factors.Population density was shown to be a major factor fuelling schistosome infection while individual socio-economic factors appeared not to affect the infection risk. The high-risk cluster around the Mbita causeway may be explained by the construction of an artificial pathway that may cause increased numbers of S. mansoni host snails through obstruction of the waterway. This construction may have, therefore, a significant negative impact on the health of the local population, especially school-aged children who frequently come in contact with lake water.

[Ecological risk assessment of land use based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA): a case study of Haitan Island, Fujian Province].

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jian; Chen, Peng; Wen, Chao-Xiang; Fu, Shi-Feng; Chen, Qing-Hui

2014-07-01

As a novel environment management tool, ecological risk assessment has provided a new perspective for the quantitative evaluation of ecological effects of land-use change. In this study, Haitan Island in Fujian Province was taken as a case. Based on the Landsat TM obtained in 1990, SPOT5 RS images obtained in 2010, general layout planning map of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone in 2030, as well as the field investigation data, we established an ecological risk index to measure ecological endpoints. By using spatial autocorrelation and semivariance analysis of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), the ecological risk of Haitan Island under different land-use situations was assessed, including the past (1990), present (2010) and future (2030), and the potential risk and its changing trend were analyzed. The results revealed that the ecological risk index showed obvious scale effect, with strong positive correlation within 3000 meters. High-high (HH) and low-low (LL) aggregations were predominant types in spatial distribution of ecological risk index. The ecological risk index showed significant isotropic characteristics, and its spatial distribution was consistent with Anselin Local Moran I (LISA) distribution during the same period. Dramatic spatial distribution change of each ecological risk area was found among 1990, 2010 and 2030, and the fluctuation trend and amplitude of different ecological risk areas were diverse. The low ecological risk area showed a rise-to-fall trend while the medium and high ecological risk areas showed a fall-to-rise trend. In the planning period, due to intensive anthropogenic disturbance, the high ecological risk area spread throughout the whole region. To reduce the ecological risk in land-use and maintain the regional ecological security, the following ecological risk control strategies could be adopted, i.e., optimizing the spatial pattern of land resources, protecting the key ecoregions and controlling the scale of

Large Portfolio Risk Management and Optimal Portfolio Allocation with Dynamic Copulas

OpenAIRE

Thorsten Lehnert; Xisong Jin

2011-01-01

Previous research focuses on the importance of modeling the multivariate distribution for optimal portfolio allocation and active risk management. However, available dynamic models are not easily applied for high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we extend the framework of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation/Equicorrelation and an extreme value approach into a series of Dynamic Conditional Elliptical Copulas. We investigate risk measures like Value at Ris...

Roles of dispersal, stochasticity, and nonlinear dynamics in the spatial structuring of seasonal natural enemy-victim populations

Science.gov (United States)

Patrick C. Tobin; Ottar N. Bjornstad

2005-01-01

Natural enemy-victim systems may exhibit a range of dynamic space-time patterns. We used a theoretical framework to study spatiotemporal structuring in a transient natural enemy-victim system subject to differential rates of dispersal, stochastic forcing, and nonlinear dynamics. Highly mobile natural enemies that attacked less mobile victims were locally spatially...

Preliminary seismic design of dynamically coupled structural systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pal, N.; Dalcher, A.W.; Gluck, R.

1977-01-01

In this paper, the analysis criteria for coupling and decoupling, which are most commonly used in nuclear design practice, are briefly reviewed and a procedure outlined and demonstrated with examples. Next, a criterion judged to be practical for preliminary seismic design purposes is defined. Subsequently, a technique compatible with this criterion is suggested. A few examples are presented to test the proposed procedure for preliminary seismic design purposes. Limitations of the procedure are also discussed and finally, the more important conclusions are summarized

Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

Science.gov (United States)

Gaitan, S.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2015-06-01

Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall, socioeconomic characteristics, and social sensing, may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several spatial datasets have been recently made available in the Netherlands, including rainfall-related incident reports made by citizens, spatially distributed rain depths, semidistributed socioeconomic information, and buildings age. Inspecting the potential of this data to explain the occurrence of rainfall related incidents has not been done yet. Multivariate analysis tools for describing communities and environmental patterns have been previously developed and used in the field of study of ecology. The objective of this paper is to outline opportunities for these tools to explore urban flooding risks patterns in the mentioned datasets. To that end, a cluster analysis is performed. Results indicate that incidence of rainfall-related impacts is higher in areas characterized by older infrastructure and higher population density.

Some imaging characteristics of the dynamic spatial reconstructor X-ray scanner system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behrenbeck, T.; Sinak, L.J.; Robb, R.A.; Kinsey, J.H.; Ritman, E.L.

1984-01-01

In late 1979, the Dynamic Spatial Reconstructor (DSR), a multiple X-ray source, stop action, volume scanning imaging device was installed. At present, the operational characteristics and biomedical utility of the DSR are being evaluated. This research project involves scanning experimental animals and carefully selected patients with cardiovascular and pulmonary pathology. The DSR scanner utilizes a computerized transaxial tomography principle to generate images of transverse slices of the body. (Auth.)

DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Maier

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

Preliminary Assessment of Spatial Competition in the Market for E85: Presentation Supplement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clinton, Bentley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Johnson, Caley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Moriarty, Kristi [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, Emily [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-02-01

The Preliminary Assessment of Spatial Competition in the Market for E85 presentation and supplementary report from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory examine how the spacing of E85 fueling stations impacts E85 retail pricing. The analysis finds an inverse correlation between station density and E85 prices, with local competition putting downward pressure on E85 prices. A gas station with E85 whose nearest competitor is within a 0.5 mile radius is associated with a lower E85 price per gallon than an otherwise identical station with E85 whose nearest competitor is farther away. The analysis also finds a higher level of correlation between E85 and both E10 and wholesale gasoline prices than with ethanol costs. This indicates that E85 may, in fact, be priced with respect to its substitute fuel, and not based on the cost of its inputs. These findings help identify key trends and barriers in E85 markets and highlight data gaps that, if addressed, could help enable competitive E85 markets. The analysis was released in February 2017 and uses national and Minnesota-specific price data.

Reduction of spatial distribution of risk factors for transportation of contaminants released by coal mining activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Karan, Shivesh Kishore; Samadder, Sukha Ranjan

2016-09-15

It is reported that water-energy nexus composes two of the biggest development and human health challenges. In the present study we presented a Risk Potential Index (RPI) model which encapsulates Source, Vector (Transport), and Target risks for forecasting surface water contamination. The main aim of the model is to identify critical surface water risk zones for an open cast mining environment, taking Jharia Coalfield, India as the study area. The model also helps in feasible sampling design. Based on spatial analysis various risk zones were successfully delineated. Monthly RPI distribution revealed that the risk of surface water contamination was highest during the monsoon months. Surface water samples were analysed to validate the model. A GIS based alternative management option was proposed to reduce surface water contamination risk and observed 96% and 86% decrease in the spatial distribution of very high risk areas for the months June and July respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probing spatial locality in ionic liquids with the grand canonical adaptive resolution molecular dynamics technique

Science.gov (United States)

Shadrack Jabes, B.; Krekeler, C.; Klein, R.; Delle Site, L.

2018-05-01

We employ the Grand Canonical Adaptive Resolution Simulation (GC-AdResS) molecular dynamics technique to test the spatial locality of the 1-ethyl 3-methyl imidazolium chloride liquid. In GC-AdResS, atomistic details are kept only in an open sub-region of the system while the environment is treated at coarse-grained level; thus, if spatial quantities calculated in such a sub-region agree with the equivalent quantities calculated in a full atomistic simulation, then the atomistic degrees of freedom outside the sub-region play a negligible role. The size of the sub-region fixes the degree of spatial locality of a certain quantity. We show that even for sub-regions whose radius corresponds to the size of a few molecules, spatial properties are reasonably reproduced thus suggesting a higher degree of spatial locality, a hypothesis put forward also by other researchers and that seems to play an important role for the characterization of fundamental properties of a large class of ionic liquids.

Urban sprawl and fragmentation in Latin America: a dynamic quantification and characterization of spatial patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Inostroza, Luis; Baur, Rolf; Csaplovics, Elmar

2013-01-30

South America is one of the most urbanized continents in the world, where almost 84% of the total population lives in cities, more urbanized than North America (82%) and Europe (73%). Spatial dynamics, their structure, main features, land consumption rates, spatial arrangement, fragmentation degrees and comparability, remain mostly unknown for most Latin American cities. Using satellite imagery the main parameters of sprawl are quantified for 10 Latin American cities over a period of 20 years by monitoring growth patterns and identifying spatial metrics to characterize urban development and sprawling features measured with GIS tools. This quantification contributes to a better understanding of urban form in Latin America. A pervasive spatial expansion has been observed, where most of the studied cities are expanding at fast rates with falling densities trend. Although important differences in the rates of land consumption and densities exist, there is an underlying fragmentation trend towards increasing sprawl. These trends of spatial discontinuity may eventually be intensified by further economic development. Urban Sprawl/Latin America/GIS metrics/spatial development. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a Preliminary Model for Evaluating Occupational Health and Safety Risk Management Maturity in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bilal Kaassis

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Management of occupational health and safety (OHS risks is a crucial component of any business. Numerous investigations have shown that work-related injuries and deaths occur disproportionately in small-to-medium-sized enterprises (SMEs and that this is clearly due to deficient management of OHS risks. The main goal of this work is to develop a base of indicators suitable for evaluating OHS risk management maturity in industrial SMEs. A preliminary model is then proposed for this evaluation, based on a small number of relevant indicators selected from a careful bibliographic review. The work begins with a critical review of the literature and analysis of known concepts, methods, tools and models of measurement of risk analysis maturity in order to extract relevant indicators. The most suitable indicators are then grouped to form the basis of a preliminary model for evaluating OHS risk management maturity in the SME setting. Our findings will help managers of SMEs make sound decisions in their quest to improve the OHS performance of their businesses.

Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2014-05-01

The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Jena, Jyotirmay; Schmitz, Oswald J

2015-03-01

Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human-carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator-prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution for predicting where carnivores access livestock, we examined the spatial attributes associated with livestock killed by tigers in Kanha Tiger Reserve, India, using risk models generated at 20, 100, and 200-m spatial grains. We analyzed land-use, human presence, and vegetation structure variables at 138 kill sites and 439 random sites to identify key landscape attributes where livestock were vulnerable to tigers. Land-use and human presence variables contributed strongly to predation risk models, with most variables showing high relative importance (≥0.85) at all spatial grains. The risk of a tiger killing livestock increased near dense forests and near the boundary of the park core zone where human presence is restricted. Risk was nonlinearly related to human infrastructure and open vegetation, with the greatest risk occurring 1.2 km from roads, 1.1 km from villages, and 8.0 km from scrubland. Kill sites were characterized by denser, patchier, and more complex vegetation with lower visibility than random sites. Risk maps revealed high-risk hot spots inside of the core zone boundary and in several patches in the human-dominated buffer zone. Validation against known kills revealed predictive accuracy for only the 20 m model, the resolution best representing the kill stage of hunting for large carnivores that ambush prey, like the tiger. Results demonstrate that risk models developed at fine spatial grains can offer accurate guidance on landscape attributes livestock should

Development of new two-dimensional spectral/spatial code based on dynamic cyclic shift code for OCDMA system

Science.gov (United States)

Jellali, Nabiha; Najjar, Monia; Ferchichi, Moez; Rezig, Houria

2017-07-01

In this paper, a new two-dimensional spectral/spatial codes family, named two dimensional dynamic cyclic shift codes (2D-DCS) is introduced. The 2D-DCS codes are derived from the dynamic cyclic shift code for the spectral and spatial coding. The proposed system can fully eliminate the multiple access interference (MAI) by using the MAI cancellation property. The effect of shot noise, phase-induced intensity noise and thermal noise are used to analyze the code performance. In comparison with existing two dimensional (2D) codes, such as 2D perfect difference (2D-PD), 2D Extended Enhanced Double Weight (2D-Extended-EDW) and 2D hybrid (2D-FCC/MDW) codes, the numerical results show that our proposed codes have the best performance. By keeping the same code length and increasing the spatial code, the performance of our 2D-DCS system is enhanced: it provides higher data rates while using lower transmitted power and a smaller spectral width.

Cost risk analysis of radioactive waste management Preliminary study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forsstroem, J.

2006-12-01

This work begins with exposition of the basics of risk analysis. These basics are then applied to the Finnish radioactive waste disposal environment in which the nuclear power companies are responsible for all costs of radioactive waste management including longterm disposal of spent fuel. Nuclear power companies prepare cost estimates of the waste disposal on a yearly basis to support the decision making on accumulation of resources to the nuclear waste disposal fund. These cost estimates are based on the cost level of the ongoing year. A Monte Carlo simulation model of the costs of the waste disposal system was defined and it was used to produce preliminary results of its cost risk characteristics. Input data was synthesised by modifying the original coefficients of cost uncertainty to define a cost range for each cost item. This is a suitable method for demonstrating results obtainable by the model but it is not accurate enough for supporting decision making. Two key areas of further development were identified: the input data preparation and identifying and handling of (i.e. eliminating or merging) interacting cost elements in the simulation model. Further development in both of the mentioned areas can be carried out by co-operating with the power companies as they are the sources of the original data. (orig.)

Spatial dynamics of a nutrient-phytoplankton system with toxic effect on phytoplankton.

Science.gov (United States)

Chakraborty, Subhendu; Tiwari, P K; Misra, A K; Chattopadhyay, J

2015-06-01

The production of toxins by some species of phytoplankton is known to have several economic, ecological, and human health impacts. However, the role of toxins on the spatial distribution of phytoplankton is not well understood. In the present study, the spatial dynamics of a nutrient-phytoplankton system with toxic effect on phytoplankton is investigated. We analyze the linear stability of the system and obtain the condition for Turing instability. In the presence of toxic effect, we find that the distribution of nutrient and phytoplankton becomes inhomogeneous in space and results in different patterns, like stripes, spots, and the mixture of them depending on the toxicity level. We also observe that the distribution of nutrient and phytoplankton shows spatiotemporal oscillation for certain toxicity level. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling Urban Growth Spatial Dynamics: Case studies of Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam

Science.gov (United States)

Buchta, Katja; Abo El Wafa, Hany; Printz, Andreas; Pauleit, Stephan

2013-04-01

Rapid urbanization, and consequently, the dramatic spatial expansion of mostly informal urban areas increases the vulnerability of African cities to the effects of climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent flooding, droughts and heat waves. The EU FP 7 funded project CLUVA (Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, www.cluva.eu) aims to develop strategies for minimizing the risks of natural hazards caused by climate change and to improve the coping capacity of African cities. Green infrastructure may play a particular role in climate change adaptation by providing ecosystem services for flood protection, stormwater retention, heat island moderation and provision of food and fuel wood. In this context, a major challenge is to gain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the cities and how these impact on green infrastructure and hence their vulnerability. Urban growth scenarios for two African cities, namely Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, were developed based on a characterization of their urban morphology. A population growth driven - GIS based - disaggregation modeling approach was applied. Major impact factors influencing the urban dynamics were identified both from literature and interviews with local experts. Location based factors including proximity to road infrastructure and accessibility, and environmental factors including slope, surface and flood risk areas showed a particular impact on urban growth patterns. In Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam, population density scenarios were modeled comparing two housing development strategies. Results showed that a densification scenario significantly decreases the loss of agricultural and green areas such as forests, bushland and sports grounds. In Dar es Salaam, the scenario of planned new settlements with a population density of max. 350 persons per hectare would lead until 2025 to a loss of agricultural land (-10.1%) and green areas (-6.6%). On the other

Risk factors for spatial memory impairment in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy.

Science.gov (United States)

Amlerova, Jana; Laczo, Jan; Vlcek, Kamil; Javurkova, Alena; Andel, Ross; Marusic, Petr

2013-01-01

At present, the risk factors for world-centered (allocentric) navigation impairment in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) are not known. There is some evidence on the importance of the right hippocampus but other clinical features have not been investigated yet. In this study, we used an experimental human equivalent to the Morris water maze to examine spatial navigation performance in patients with drug-refractory unilateral TLE. We included 47 left-hemisphere speech dominant patients (25 right sided; 22 left sided). The aim of our study was to identify clinical and demographic characteristics of TLE patients who performed poorly in allocentric spatial memory tests. Our results demonstrate that poor spatial navigation is significantly associated with younger age at epilepsy onset, longer disease duration, and lower intelligence level. Allocentric navigation in TLE patients was impaired irrespective of epilepsy lateralization. Good and poor navigators did not differ in their age, gender, or preoperative/postoperative status. This study provides evidence on risk factors that increase the likelihood of allocentric navigation impairment in TLE patients. The results indicate that not only temporal lobe dysfunction itself but also low general cognitive abilities may contribute to the navigation impairment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Preliminary Study on the Efficacy of a Community-Based Physical Activity Intervention on Physical Function-Related Risk Factors for Falls Among Breast Cancer Survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, C Ellen; Warden, Stuart J; Szuck, Beth; Lau, Y K James

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of a 6-week community-based physical activity (PA) intervention on physical function-related risk factors for falls among 56 breast cancer survivors (BCS) who had completed treatments. This was a single-group longitudinal study. The multimodal PA intervention included aerobic, strengthening, and balance components. Physical function outcomes based on the 4-meter walk, chair stand, one-leg stance, tandem walk, and dynamic muscular endurance tests were assessed at 6-week pre-intervention (T1), baseline (T2), and post-intervention (T3). T1 to T2 and T2 to T3 were the control and intervention periods, respectively. All outcomes, except the tandem walk test, significantly improved after the intervention period (P control period (P > 0.05). Based on the falls risk criterion in the one-leg stance test, the proportion at risk for falls was significantly lower after the intervention period (P = 0.04), but not after the control period. A community-based multimodal PA intervention for BCS may be efficacious in improving physical function-related risk factors for falls, and lowering the proportion of BCS at risk for falls based on specific physical function-related falls criteria. Further larger trials are needed to confirm these preliminary findings.

A Preliminary Study on the Efficacy of a Community-Based Physical Activity Intervention on Physical Function-Related Risk Factors for Falls among Breast Cancer Survivors

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, C. Ellen; Warden, Stuart J.; Szuck, Beth; Lau, Y.K. James

2015-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to examine the effects of a 6-week community-based physical activity (PA) intervention on physical function-related risk factors for falls among 56 breast cancer survivors (BCS) who had completed treatments. Design This was a single-group longitudinal study. The multimodal PA intervention included aerobic, strengthening and balance components. Physical function outcomes based on the 4-meter walk, chair stand, one-leg stance, tandem walk, and dynamic muscular endurance tests were assessed at 6-week pre-intervention (T1), baseline (T2), and post-intervention (T3). T1-T2 and T2-T3 were the control and intervention periods, respectively. Results All outcomes, except the tandem walk test, significantly improved after the intervention period (p 0.05). Based on the falls risk criterion in the one-leg stance test, the proportion at risk for falls was significantly lower after the intervention period (p = 0.04), but not after the control period. Conclusions A community-based multimodal PA intervention for BCS may be efficacious in improving physical function-related risk factors for falls, and lowering the proportion of BCS at risk for falls based on specific physical function-related falls criteria. Further larger trials are needed to confirm these preliminary findings. PMID:26829081

Application of preliminary risk analysis at marble finishing plants in Recife's metropolitan area.

Science.gov (United States)

de Melo Neto, Rútilo P; Kohlman Rabbani, Emilia R

2012-01-01

The finishing of marble occurs in quarries all over Brazil, being the most significant dimension of the ornamental stone sector, with 7,000 businesses. Recife's Metropolitan Area (RMR) contains approximately 106 marble quarries, 25 of them unionized. The study focused on the application of Preliminary Risk Analysis, conducted at two unionized quarries: M1, a small business; and the second, M2, considered a micro enterprise. In this analysis both the administrative and the productive sectors were evaluated. The fieldwork was done in the month of December 2010. The study revealed that the two quarries carried moderate risks in the administrative sector, mainly due to ergonomic factors, and that in the productive sectors the risks were high, specifically because of excess noise, dust material, and precarious electrical installations. Using the results of the qualitative analysis as a base, the need for quantitative study presents itself in order to determine the most adequate modes of protection to be of assistance in the management of these risks, guaranteeing the safety and health of the worker and consequently the improvement in productivity in this sector.

Physical frailty, disability, and dynamics in health perceptions: a preliminary mediation model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mulasso A

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Anna Mulasso, Mattia Roppolo, Emanuela Rabaglietti Department of Psychology, University of Torino, Torino, Italy Purpose: Frailty is a condition characterized by loss of functional reserve and altered homeostatic capacity. The aging process is related with complex indicators of physiological state. This study aims, with a preliminary mediation model, to reveal the possible role of mediator of health perceptions variability in the relationship between frailty and disability. Patients and methods: A longitudinal study (100 days was performed. Data from 92 institutionalized older adults were used in the analysis. Frailty was assessed in baseline using the Italian version of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe – Frailty Instrument; health perceptions were assessed on a daily basis by three visual analog scale questions; and disability was measured in baseline and post-test using the Katz Activities of Daily Living questionnaire. The product-of-coefficient mediation approach was used to test direct and indirect effects of frailty. Results: Results showed that daily variability of health perceptions plays the role of mediator between frailty and disability. In all the steps, statistically significant results were found. Conclusion: This preliminary result may indicate that physical frailty increases the variability in health perceptions contributing to disability. Keywords: functional decline, loss of autonomy, variability, health outcomes, dynamic systems

Spatial risk modelling for water shortage and nitrate pollution in the lower Jordan valley

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loibl, W.; Orthofer, R.

2002-02-01

This report summarizes the results of the spatial risk modeling activities (work package WP-4.4, 'GIS Risk Modeling') of the INCO-DC project 'Developing Sustainable Water Management in the Jordan Valley'. The project was funded by European Commission's INCO-DC research program. The main objective of the project was to develop the scientific basis for an integral management plan of water resources and their use in the Lower Jordan Valley. The outputs of the project were expected to allow a better understanding of the water management situation, and to provide a sound basis for a better future water management - not only separately in the three countries, but in the overall valley region. The risk modeling was done by the ARCS Seibersdorf research (ARCS), based on information and data provided by the regional partners from Israel (Hebrew University, Jerusalem, HUJ), Palestine (Applied Research Institute, Jerusalem, Bethlehem, ARIJ) and Jordan (EnviroConsult Office, Amman, ECO). The land use classification has been established through a cooperation between ARCS and the Yale University Center for Earth Observation (YUCEO). As a result of the work, the spatial patterns of agricultural and domestic water demand in the Lower Jordan Valley were established, and the spatial dimension of driving forces for water usage and water supply was analyzed. Furthermore, a conceptual model for nitrate leakage (established by HUJ) was translated into a GIS system, and the risks for nitrate pollution of groundwater were quantified. (author)

A Bayesian method to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings to catastrophic risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Lianfa; Wang, Jinfeng; Leung, Hareton; Zhao, Sisi

2012-06-01

Vulnerability of human beings exposed to a catastrophic disaster is affected by multiple factors that include hazard intensity, environment, and individual characteristics. The traditional approach to vulnerability assessment, based on the aggregate-area method and unsupervised learning, cannot incorporate spatial information; thus, vulnerability can be only roughly assessed. In this article, we propose Bayesian network (BN) and spatial analysis techniques to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings. In our approach, spatial analysis is leveraged to preprocess the data; for example, kernel density analysis (KDA) and accumulative road cost surface modeling (ARCSM) are employed to quantify the influence of geofeatures on vulnerability and relate such influence to spatial distance. The knowledge- and data-based BN provides a consistent platform to integrate a variety of factors, including those extracted by KDA and ARCSM to model vulnerability uncertainty. We also consider the model's uncertainty and use the Bayesian model average and Occam's Window to average the multiple models obtained by our approach to robust prediction of the risk and vulnerability. We compare our approach with other probabilistic models in the case study of seismic risk and conclude that our approach is a good means to mining spatial data sets for evaluating vulnerability. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Poultry, pig and the risk of BSE following the feed ban in France--a spatial analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Abrial, David; Calavas, Didier; Jarrige, Nathalie; Ducrot, Christian

2005-01-01

A spatial analysis was carried out in order to analyse the reason why the risk of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) was spatially heterogeneous in France, during the period following the feed ban of Meat and Bone Meal to cattle. The hypothesis of cross-contamination between cattle feedstuff and monogastric feedstuff, which was strongly suggested from previous investigations, was assessed, with the assumption that the higher the pig or poultry density is in a given area, the higher the risk of cross-contamination and cattle infection might be. The data concerned the 467 BSE cases born in France after the ban of meat and bone meal (July 1990) and detected between July 1st, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance system was optimal and not spatially biased. The disease mapping models were elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing (hierarchical approach) and covariates. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The main result was that the poultry density did not significantly influence the risk of BSE whereas the pig density was significantly associated with an increase in the risk of 2.4% per 10 000 pigs. The areas with a significant pig effect were located in regions with a high pig density as well as a high ratio of pigs to cattle. Despite the absence of a global effect of poultry density on the BSE risk, some areas had a significant poultry effect and the risk was better explained in some others when considering both pig and poultry densities. These findings were in agreement with the hypothesis of cross-contamination, which could take place at the feedstuff factory, during the shipment of food or on the farm. Further studies are needed to more precisely explore how the cross-contamination happened.

Spatial-temporal dynamics of broadband terahertz Bessel beam propagation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semenova, V A; Kulya, M S; Bespalov, V G

2016-01-01

The unique properties of narrowband and broadband terahertz Bessel beams have led to a number of their applications in different fields, for example, for the depth of focusing and resolution enhancement in terahertz imaging. However, broadband terahertz Bessel beams can probably be also used for the diffraction minimization in the short-range broadband terahertz communications. For this purpose, the study of spatial-temporal dynamics of the broadband terahertz Bessel beams is needed. Here we present a simulation-based study of the propagating in non-dispersive medium broadband Bessel beams generated by a conical axicon lens. The algorithm based on scalar diffraction theory was used to obtain the spatial amplitude and phase distributions of the Bessel beam in the frequency range from 0.1 to 3 THz at the distances 10-200 mm from the axicon. Bessel beam field is studied for the different spectral components of the initial pulse. The simulation results show that for the given parameters of the axicon lens one can obtain the Gauss-Bessel beam generation in the spectral range from 0.1 to 3 THz. The length of non-diffraction propagation for a different spectral components was measured, and it was shown that for all spectral components of the initial pulse this length is about 130 mm. (paper)

Modelling hen harrier dynamics to inform human-wildlife conflict resolution: a spatially-realistic, individual-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinonen, Johannes P M; Palmer, Stephen C F; Redpath, Steve M; Travis, Justin M J

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.

Modelling hen harrier dynamics to inform human-wildlife conflict resolution: a spatially-realistic, individual-based approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johannes P M Heinonen

Full Text Available Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.

Preliminary Results on the Spatial Analysis of Vunerable Areas in Central Europe (SAVEC)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanyar, B.; Nenyei, A.; Howard, B.; Malatova, I.; Mirchi, R.; Krajewski, P.; Crout, N.; Strand, P.; Sanchez, A.; Wright, S.

2001-01-01

Full text: Project SAVEC aims to identify areas vulnerable to radiocaesium contamination in three Central European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) using the approach developed in the EC-funded SAVE project (Spatial analysis of vulnerable ecosystems in Europe): Spatial and dynamic predictions of radiocaesium fluxes in European foods). Identification of vulnerable areas is useful for establishing where intervention levels are likely to be exceeded in the event of a nuclear accident. The overall aim is to provide user-friendly guidance, in the form of computer-based systems and accompanying handbooks, for decision-makers, to enable them to make informed decisions. The duration of the project dates 01.09.1998 - 31.08.2001. The project incorporates a wide range of radioecological knowledge on the environmental variation in radiocaesium transfer to foodstuffs. The collation of information on important parameters influencing the flux/transfer of radiocaesium to man, e.g. soil type, land use, climate and crop type, for the three countries, which started during the first year of the project, continued during the 3 years period. In addition, the collation of data on dietary information at national and regional levels, and whole body measurements carried out following Chernobyl deposition, continued. These data have been used to prepare two deliverables for the project during this reporting period: The work progress under the following five work packages: Collation of spatial data and integration in GIS Radiocaesium behaviour in soils Fluxes of radiocaesium Dietary survey and whole-body measurements Model Development and Verification. All the data collected and integrated to GIS are to be opened for extended analysis at the end of the project. (author)

Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Gaitan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall, socioeconomic characteristics, and social sensing, may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several spatial datasets have been recently made available in the Netherlands, including rainfall-related incident reports made by citizens, spatially distributed rain depths, semidistributed socioeconomic information, and buildings age. Inspecting the potential of this data to explain the occurrence of rainfall related incidents has not been done yet. Multivariate analysis tools for describing communities and environmental patterns have been previously developed and used in the field of study of ecology. The objective of this paper is to outline opportunities for these tools to explore urban flooding risks patterns in the mentioned datasets. To that end, a cluster analysis is performed. Results indicate that incidence of rainfall-related impacts is higher in areas characterized by older infrastructure and higher population density.

Influence of non-spatial working memory demands on reach-grasp responses to loss of balance: Effects of age and fall risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Westlake, Kelly P; Johnson, Brian P; Creath, Robert A; Neff, Rachel M; Rogers, Mark W

2016-03-01

Reactive balance recovery strategies following an unexpected loss of balance are crucial to the prevention of falls, head trauma and other major injuries in older adults. While a longstanding focus has been on understanding lower limb recovery responses, the upper limbs also play a critical role. However, when a fall occurs, little is known about the role of memory and attention shifting on the reach to grasp recovery strategy and what factors determine the speed and precision of this response beyond simple reaction time. The objective of this study was to compare response time and accuracy of a stabilizing grasp following a balance perturbation in older adult fallers compared to non-fallers and younger adults while loading the processing demands of non-spatial, verbal working memory. Working memory was engaged with a progressively challenging verb-generation task that was interrupted by an unexpected sideways platform perturbation and a pre-instructed reach to grasp response. Results revealed that the older adults, particularly those at high fall risk, demonstrated significantly increased movement time to handrail contact and grasping errors during conditions in which non-spatial memory was actively engaged. These findings provide preliminary evidence of the cognitive deficit in attention shifting away from an ongoing working memory task that underlies delayed and inaccurate protective reach to grasp responses in older adult fallers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preliminary Risk Assessment of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Mullen, M.A.; Foxx, T.S.

1998-10-01

The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is the fourth threatened or endangered species to undergo a preliminary assessment for estimating potential risk from environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The assessments are being conducted as part of a three-year project to develop a habitat management plan for threatened and endangered species and species of concern at the Laboratory. For the preliminary assessment, estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (HIs). This assessment included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals) to 100 simulated nest sites located within flycatcher potential habitat. Sources of contaminant values were 10,000-ft{sup 2} grid cells within an Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU). This EEU was estimated around the potential habitat and was based on the maximum home range for the fly catcher identified in the scientific literature. The tools used included a custom FORTRAN program, ECORSK5, and a geographic information system. Food consumption and soil ingestion contaminant pathways were addressed in the assessment. Using a four-category risk evaluation, HI results indicate no appreciable impact is expected to the southwestern willow flycatcher. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, flycatcher habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain low levels of risk from contaminants.

Preliminary Risk Assessment of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Mullen, M.A.; Foxx, T.S.

1998-01-01

The southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) is the fourth threatened or endangered species to undergo a preliminary assessment for estimating potential risk from environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The assessments are being conducted as part of a three-year project to develop a habitat management plan for threatened and endangered species and species of concern at the Laboratory. For the preliminary assessment, estimated doses were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices (HIs). This assessment included a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals) to 100 simulated nest sites located within flycatcher potential habitat. Sources of contaminant values were 10,000-ft 2 grid cells within an Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU). This EEU was estimated around the potential habitat and was based on the maximum home range for the fly catcher identified in the scientific literature. The tools used included a custom FORTRAN program, ECORSK5, and a geographic information system. Food consumption and soil ingestion contaminant pathways were addressed in the assessment. Using a four-category risk evaluation, HI results indicate no appreciable impact is expected to the southwestern willow flycatcher. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, flycatcher habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain low levels of risk from contaminants

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Sediment Anaerobic Ammonium Oxidation (Anammox) Bacteria in Freshwater Lakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yuyin; Dai, Yu; Li, Ningning; Li, Bingxin; Xie, Shuguang; Liu, Yong

2017-02-01

Anaerobic ammonium-oxidizing (anammox) process can play an important role in freshwater nitrogen cycle. However, the distribution of anammox bacteria in freshwater lake and the associated environmental factors remain essentially unclear. The present study investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of sediment anammox bacterial populations in eutrotrophic Dianchi Lake and mesotrophic Erhai Lake on the Yunnan Plateau (southwestern China). The remarkable spatial change of anammox bacterial abundance was found in Dianchi Lake, while the relatively slight spatial shift occurred in Erhai Lake. Dianchi Lake had greater anammox bacterial abundance than Erhai Lake. In both Dianchi Lake and Erhai Lake, anammox bacteria were much more abundant in summer than in spring. Anammox bacterial community richness, diversity, and structure in these two freshwater lakes were subjected to temporal and spatial variations. Sediment anammox bacterial communities in Dianchi Lake and Erhai Lake were dominated by Candidatus Brocadia and a novel phylotype followed by Candidatus Kuenenia; however, these two lakes had distinct anammox bacterial community structure. In addition, trophic status determined sediment anammox bacterial community structure.

Temporal Dynamics and Spatial Patterns of Aedes aegypti Breeding Sites, in the Context of a Dengue Control Program in Tartagal (Salta Province, Argentina)

Science.gov (United States)

Espinosa, Manuel; Weinberg, Diego; Rotela, Camilo H.; Polop, Francisco; Abril, Marcelo; Scavuzzo, Carlos Marcelo

2016-01-01

Background Since 2009, Fundación Mundo Sano has implemented an Aedes aegypti Surveillance and Control Program in Tartagal city (Salta Province, Argentina). The purpose of this study was to analyze temporal dynamics of Ae. aegypti breeding sites spatial distribution, during five years of samplings, and the effect of control actions over vector population dynamics. Methodology/Principal Findings Seasonal entomological (larval) samplings were conducted in 17,815 fixed sites in Tartagal urban area between 2009 and 2014. Based on information of breeding sites abundance, from satellite remote sensing data (RS), and by the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), spatial analysis (hotspots and cluster analysis) and predictive model (MaxEnt) were performed. Spatial analysis showed a distribution pattern with the highest breeding densities registered in city outskirts. The model indicated that 75% of Ae. aegypti distribution is explained by 3 variables: bare soil coverage percentage (44.9%), urbanization coverage percentage(13.5%) and water distribution (11.6%). Conclusions/Significance This results have called attention to the way entomological field data and information from geospatial origin (RS/GIS) are used to infer scenarios which could then be applied in epidemiological surveillance programs and in the determination of dengue control strategies. Predictive maps development constructed with Ae. aegypti systematic spatiotemporal data, in Tartagal city, would allow public health workers to identify and target high-risk areas with appropriate and timely control measures. These tools could help decision-makers to improve health system responses and preventive measures related to vector control. PMID:27223693

A nonlocal spatial model for Lyme disease

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xiao; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2016-07-01

This paper is devoted to the study of a nonlocal and time-delayed reaction-diffusion model for Lyme disease with a spatially heterogeneous structure. In the case of a bounded domain, we first prove the existence of the positive steady state and a threshold type result for the disease-free system, and then establish the global dynamics for the model system in terms of the basic reproduction number. In the case of an unbound domain, we obtain the existence of the disease spreading speed and its coincidence with the minimal wave speed. At last, we use numerical simulations to verify our analytic results and investigate the influence of model parameters and spatial heterogeneity on the disease infection risk.

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Lion, S; Gandon, S

2016-10-26

Most spatial models of host-parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Spatial analysis of health risk assessment with arsenic intake of drinking water in the LanYang plain

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, C. F.; Liang, C. P.; Jang, C. S.; Chen, J. S.

2016-12-01

Groundwater is one of the most component water resources in Lanyang plain. The groundwater of the Lanyang Plain contains arsenic levels that exceed the current Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (Taiwan EPA) limit of 10 μg/L. The arsenic of groundwater in some areas of the Lanyang Plain pose great menace for the safe use of groundwater resources. Therefore, poor water quality can adversely impact drinking water uses, leading to human health risks. This study analyzed the potential health risk associated with the ingestion of arsenic-affected groundwater in the arseniasis-endemic Lanyang plain. Geostatistical approach is widely used in spatial variability analysis and distributions of field data with uncertainty. The estimation of spatial distribution of the arsenic contaminant in groundwater is very important in the health risk assessment. This study used indicator kriging (IK) and ordinary kriging (OK) methods to explore the spatial variability of arsenic-polluted parameters. The estimated difference between IK and OK estimates was compared. The extent of arsenic pollution was spatially determined and the Target cancer risk (TR) and dose response were explored when the ingestion of arsenic in groundwater. Thus, a zonal management plan based on safe groundwater use is formulated. The research findings can provide a plan reference of regional water resources supplies for local government administrators and developing groundwater resources in the Lanyang Plain.

Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

2012-01-01

Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

A Framework for Spatial Risk Assessments: Potential Impacts of Nonindigenous Invasive Species on Native Species

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Craig R. Allen

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Many populations of wild animals and plants are declining and face increasing threats from habitat fragmentation and loss as well as exposure to stressors ranging from toxicants to diseases to invasive nonindigenous species. We describe and demonstrate a spatially explicit ecological risk assessment that allows for the incorporation of a broad array of information that may influence the distribution of an invasive species, toxicants, or other stressors, and the incorporation of landscape variables that may influence the spread of a species or substances. The first step in our analyses is to develop species models and quantify spatial overlap between stressor and target organisms. Risk is assessed as the product of spatial overlap and a hazard index based on target species vulnerabilities to the stressor of interest. We illustrate our methods with an example in which the stressor is the ecologically destructive nonindigenous ant, Solenopsis invicta, and the targets are two declining vertebrate species in the state of South Carolina, USA. A risk approach that focuses on landscapes and that is explicitly spatial is of particular relevance as remaining undeveloped lands become increasingly uncommon and isolated and more important in the management and recovery of species and ecological systems. Effective ecosystem management includes the control of multiple stressors, including invasive species with large impacts, understanding where those impacts may be the most severe, and implementing management strategies to reduce impacts.

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Zuwei

2003-01-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zuwei Yu

2003-01-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zuwei Yu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States). Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering

2003-05-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, Zuwei [Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, Room 334, 1293 A.A. Potter, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States)

2003-05-01

The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets.

The spatial turn and the scenario approach in flood risk management—Implementing the European Floods Directive in the Netherlands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leon J. van Ruiten

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The European Floods Directive requires member states to prepare flood risk management plans for their river catchments. The first generation of those plans was just developed at the end of 2015; the next revision is due in 2021. The new instrument institutionalizes an ongoing paradigm shift from flood protection to flood risk management in Europe. It implies two major governance challenges: the spatial turn and the scenario approach. This contribution studies the implementation of these two governance challenges in the Netherlands, where the paradigm shift is considered to be advanced. Therefore, the spatial turn and the scenario approach are operationalized. The spatial turn consists of three aspects: space for the river, an integrated approach, and beyond structural measures. The scenario approach introduces the vulnerability of society in flood risk management. It is discussed how the challenges of spatial turn and the scenario approach—and thus the shift towards flood risk management—have an effect on the prevailing modes of governance in water management in the Netherlands. This helps understand the tensions and frictions with implementing the plans, but also illustrates how the European Floods Directive institutionalizes the shift towards flood risk management. The analytical scheme, consists mainly of operationalization, can foster future comparative studies with other countries and over time, to trace the changes in approaches to flood risks in Europe.

Preliminary risk assessment of the Integral Inherently-Safe Light Water Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCarroll, Kellen R.; Lee, John C.; Manera, Annalisa; Memmott, Matthew J.; Ferroni, Paolo

2017-01-01

The Integral, Inherently Safe Light Water Reactor (I 2 S-LWR) concept seeks to significantly increase nuclear power plant safety. The project implements a safety-by-design philosophy, eliminating several initiating events and providing novel, passive safety systems at the conceptual phase. Pursuit of unparalleled safety employs an integrated development process linking design with deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses. Unique aspects of the I 2 S-LWR concept and design process present challenges to the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), particularly regarding overall flexibility, auditability and resolution of results. Useful approaches to initiating events and conditional failures are presented. To exemplify the risk-informed design process using PRA, a trade-off study of two safety system configurations is presented. Although further optimization is required, preliminary results indicate that the I 2 S-LWR can achieve a core damage frequency (CDF) from internal events less than 1.01 × 10 −8 /ry, including reactor vessel ruptures. Containment bypass frequency due to primary heat exchanger rupture is found to be comparable to non-vessel rupture CDF.

Dynamic asset allocation and downside-risk aversion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.B. Berkelaar (Arjan); R.R.P. Kouwenberg (Roy)

2000-01-01

textabstractThis paper considers dynamic asset allocation in a mean versus downside-risk framework. We derive closed-form solutions for the optimal portfolio weights when returns are lognormally distributed. Moreover, we study the impact of skewed and fat-tailed return distributions. We find that

A Risk Assessment Example for Soil Invertebrates Using Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reed, Melissa; Alvarez, Tania; Chelinho, Sonia

2016-01-01

Current risk assessment methods for measuring the toxicity of plant protection products (PPPs) on soil invertebrates use standardized laboratory conditions to determine acute effects on mortality and sublethal effects on reproduction. If an unacceptable risk is identified at the lower tier...... population models for ubiquitous soil invertebrates (collembolans and earthworms) as refinement options in current risk assessment. Both are spatially explicit agent-based models (ABMs), incorporating individual and landscape variability. The models were used to provide refined risk assessments for different...... application scenarios of a hypothetical pesticide applied to potato crops (full-field spray onto the soil surface [termed “overall”], in-furrow, and soil-incorporated pesticide applications). In the refined risk assessment, the population models suggest that soil invertebrate populations would likely recover...

Environmental risk of leptospirosis infections in the Netherlands: Spatial modelling of environmental risk factors of leptospirosis in the Netherlands.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ente J J Rood

Full Text Available Leptospirosis is a globally emerging zoonotic disease, associated with various climatic, biotic and abiotic factors. Mapping and quantifying geographical variations in the occurrence of leptospirosis and the surrounding environment offer innovative methods to study disease transmission and to identify associations between the disease and the environment. This study aims to investigate geographic variations in leptospirosis incidence in the Netherlands and to identify associations with environmental factors driving the emergence of the disease. Individual case data derived over the period 1995-2012 in the Netherlands were geocoded and aggregated by municipality. Environmental covariate data were extracted for each municipality and stored in a spatial database. Spatial clusters were identified using kernel density estimations and quantified using local autocorrelation statistics. Associations between the incidence of leptospirosis and the local environment were determined using Simultaneous Autoregressive Models (SAR explicitly modelling spatial dependence of the model residuals. Leptospirosis incidence rates were found to be spatially clustered, showing a marked spatial pattern. Fitting a spatial autoregressive model significantly improved model fit and revealed significant association between leptospirosis and the coverage of arable land, built up area, grassland and sabulous clay soils. The incidence of leptospirosis in the Netherlands could effectively be modelled using a combination of soil and land-use variables accounting for spatial dependence of incidence rates per municipality. The resulting spatially explicit risk predictions provide an important source of information which will benefit clinical awareness on potential leptospirosis infections in endemic areas.

Spatial Arrangement of Coastal Sama-Bajau Houses Based on Adjacency Diagram

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iziq Eafifi Ismail

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This research studies the diversification of space distribution in selected Sama-Bajau dwellings along the north coast of Sabah: Kudat and Pitas; and east coast of Sabah: Mabul Island. This study investigates the frequency of spatial arrangements in Sama-Bajau coastal houses as a preliminary step in understanding their ideal home based on the existing socio-culture and economic practice. Adjacency Distribution Diagram by Mushtaha et al (2011 is used for simpler and compact visual diagram that explains the space distribution in each house attended. This paper is exploratory and applies a qualitative method. This study suggests that the spatial distribution amongst coastal Sama-Bajau consists of Dynamic interconnectivity (Type A, linear configuration (Type B, Anarchy configuration (Type C and D and Modernist influence (Type E. The frequency of given types is found to weighs more on Type B, which is a linear configuration from the entrance towards guest area and ending up to the living area.

Spatial knowledge dynamics of innovation processes: local and non-local aspects of buzz and collective learning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tanner, Anne Nygaard

2014-01-01

learning processes and require face-to-face contact. In sum, the innovation biography method contributes in uncovering innovation processes and how these rely on many different configurations of spatial knowledge dynamics, including buzz, local ties and global pipelines. The findings imply that policy...

Influence of impulsivity-reflexivity when testing dynamic spatial ability: sex and g differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Quiroga, M Angeles; Hernández, José Manuel; Rubio, Victor; Shih, Pei Chun; Santacreu, José

2007-11-01

This work analyzes the possibility that the differences in the performance of men and women in dynamic spatial tasks such as the Spatial Orientation Dynamic Test-Revised (SODT-R; Santacreu & Rubio, 1998), obtained in previous works, are due to cognitive style (Reflexivity-Impulsivity) or to the speed-accuracy tradeoff (SATO) that the participants implement. If these differences are due to cognitive style, they would be independent of intelligence, whereas if they are due to SATO, they may be associated with intelligence. In this work, 1652 participants, 984 men and 668 women, ages between 18 and 55 years, were assessed. In addition to the SODT-R, the "Test de Razonamiento Analitico, Secuencial e Inductivo" (TRASI [Analytical, Sequential, and Inductive Reasoning Test]; Rubio & Santacreu, 2003) was administered as a measure of general intelligence. Impulsivity scores (Zi) of Salkind and Wright (1977) were used to analyze reflexivity-impulsivity and SATO. The results obtained indicate that (a) four performance groups can be identified: Fast-accurate, Slow-inaccurate, Impulsive, and Reflexive. The first two groups solve the task as a function of a competence variable and the last two as a function of a personality variable; (b) performance differences should be attributed to SATO; (c) SATO differs depending on sex and intelligence level.

Dynamic building risk assessment theoretic model for rainstorm-flood utilization ABM and ABS

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Wenze; Li, Wenbo; Wang, Hailei; Huang, Yingliang; Wu, Xuelian; Sun, Bingyun

2015-12-01

Flood is one of natural disasters with the worst loss in the world. It needs to assess flood disaster risk so that we can reduce the loss of flood disaster. Disaster management practical work needs the dynamic risk results of building. Rainstorm flood disaster system is a typical complex system. From the view of complex system theory, flood disaster risk is the interaction result of hazard effect objects, rainstorm flood hazard factors, and hazard environments. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an important tool for complex system modeling. Rainstorm-flood building risk dynamic assessment method (RFBRDAM) was proposed using ABM in this paper. The interior structures and procedures of different agents in proposed meth had been designed. On the Netlogo platform, the proposed method was implemented to assess the building risk changes of the rainstorm flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin using Agent-based simulation (ABS). The results indicated that the proposed method can dynamically assess building risk of the whole process for the rainstorm flood disaster. The results of this paper can provide one new approach for flood disaster building risk dynamic assessment and flood disaster management.

Visuo-spatial processing in a dynamic and a static working memory paradigm in schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cocchi, Luca; Schenk, Françoise; Volken, Henri

2007-01-01

patients with schizophrenia and matched controls in a new working memory paradigm involving dynamic (the Ball Flight Task - BFT) or static (the Static Pattern Task - SPT) visual stimuli. In the BFT, the responses of the patients were apparently based on the retention of the last set of segments...... that visuo-spatial working memory can simply be dissociated into visual and spatial sub-components....... of the perceived trajectory, whereas control subjects relied on a more global strategy. We assume that the patients' performances are the result of a reduced capacity in chunking visual information since they relied mainly on the retention of the last set of segments. This assumption is confirmed by the poor...

Life history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations

OpenAIRE

Laver, Rj; Purwandana, D; Ariefiandy, A; Imansyah, J; Forsyth, D; Ciofi, C; Jessop, Ts

2012-01-01

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture st...

Shallow-land burial of low-level radioactive wastes: preliminary simulations of long-term health risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fields, D.E.; Little, C.A.; Emerson, C.J.; Hiromoto, G.

1982-01-01

PRESTO, a computer code developed for the Environmental Protection Agency for the evaluation of possible health effects associated with shallow-land rad-waste burial areas, has been used to perform simulations for three such sites. Preliminary results for the 1000 y period following site closure suggest that shallow burial, at properly chosen sites, is indeed an appropriate disposal practice for low-level wastes. Periods of maximum risk to subject populations are also inferred

Fluxon dynamics in long Josephson junctions in the presence of a temperature gradient or spatial nonuniformity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krasnov, V.M.; Oboznov, V.A.; Pedersen, Niels Falsig

1997-01-01

Fluxon dynamics in nonuniform Josephson junctions was studied both experimentally and theoretically. Two types of nonuniform junctions were considered: the first type had a nonuniform spatial distribution of critical and bias currents and the second had a temperature gradient applied along...... the junction. An analytical expression for the I-V curve in the presence of a temperature gradient or spatial nonuniformity was derived. It was shown that there is no static thermomagnetic Nernst effect due to Josephson fluxon motion despite the existence of a force pushing fluxons in the direction of smaller...

Preliminary risk analysis applied to the handling of health-care waste

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carvalho S.M.L.

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Between 75% and 90% of the waste produced by health-care providers no risk or is "general" health-care waste, comparable to domestic waste. The remaining 10-25% of health-care waste is regarded as hazardous due to one or more of the following characteristics: it may contain infectious agents, sharps, toxic or hazardous chemicals or it may be radioactive. Infectious health-care waste, particularly sharps, has been responsible for most of the accidents reported in the literature. In this work the preliminary risks analysis (PRA technique was used to evaluate practices in the handling of infectious health-care waste. Currently the PRA technique is being used to identify and to evaluate the potential for hazard of the activities, products, and services from facilities and industries. The system studied was a health-care establishment which has handling practices for infectious waste. Thirty-six procedures related to segregation, containment, internal collection, and storage operation were analyzed. The severity of the consequences of the failure (risk that can occur from careless management of infectious health-care waste was classified into four categories: negligible, marginal, critical, and catastrophic. The results obtained in this study showed that events with critics consequences, about 80%, may occur during the implementation of the containment operation, suggesting the need to prioritize this operation. As a result of the methodology applied in this work, a flowchart the risk series was also obtained. In the flowchart the events that can occur as a consequence of a improper handling of infectious health-care waste, which can cause critical risks such as injuries from sharps and contamination (infection from pathogenic microorganisms, are shown.

Spatial waves of advance with bistable dynamics: cytoplasmic and genetic analogues of Allee effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Barton, N H; Turelli, Michael

2011-09-01

Unlike unconditionally advantageous "Fisherian" variants that tend to spread throughout a species range once introduced anywhere, "bistable" variants, such as chromosome translocations, have two alternative stable frequencies, absence and (near) fixation. Analogous to populations with Allee effects, bistable variants tend to increase locally only once they become sufficiently common, and their spread depends on their rate of increase averaged over all frequencies. Several proposed manipulations of insect populations, such as using Wolbachia or "engineered underdominance" to suppress vector-borne diseases, produce bistable rather than Fisherian dynamics. We synthesize and extend theoretical analyses concerning three features of their spatial behavior: rate of spread, conditions to initiate spread from a localized introduction, and wave stopping caused by variation in population densities or dispersal rates. Unlike Fisherian variants, bistable variants tend to spread spatially only for particular parameter combinations and initial conditions. Wave initiation requires introduction over an extended region, while subsequent spatial spread is slower than for Fisherian waves and can easily be halted by local spatial inhomogeneities. We present several new results, including robust sufficient conditions to initiate (and stop) spread, using a one-parameter cubic approximation applicable to several models. The results have both basic and applied implications.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Value of Nature-Based Recreation, Estimated via Social Media.

Science.gov (United States)

Sonter, Laura J; Watson, Keri B; Wood, Spencer A; Ricketts, Taylor H

2016-01-01

Conserved lands provide multiple ecosystem services, including opportunities for nature-based recreation. Managing this service requires understanding the landscape attributes underpinning its provision, and how changes in land management affect its contribution to human wellbeing over time. However, evidence from both spatially explicit and temporally dynamic analyses is scarce, often due to data limitations. In this study, we investigated nature-based recreation within conserved lands in Vermont, USA. We used geotagged photographs uploaded to the photo-sharing website Flickr to quantify visits by in-state and out-of-state visitors, and we multiplied visits by mean trip expenditures to show that conserved lands contributed US $1.8 billion (US $0.18-20.2 at 95% confidence) to Vermont's tourism industry between 2007 and 2014. We found eight landscape attributes explained the pattern of visits to conserved lands; visits were higher in larger conserved lands, with less forest cover, greater trail density and more opportunities for snow sports. Some of these attributes differed from those found in other locations, but all aligned with our understanding of recreation in Vermont. We also found that using temporally static models to inform conservation decisions may have perverse outcomes for nature-based recreation. For example, static models suggest conserved land with less forest cover receive more visits, but temporally dynamic models suggest clearing forests decreases, rather than increases, visits to these sites. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding both the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services for conservation decision-making.

Exploring the Internal Dynamics of Globular Clusters

Science.gov (United States)

Watkins, Laura L.; van der Marel, Roeland; Bellini, Andrea; Luetzgendorf, Nora; HSTPROMO Collaboration

2018-01-01

Exploring the Internal Dynamics of Globular ClustersThe formation histories and structural properties of globular clusters are imprinted on their internal dynamics. Energy equipartition results in velocity differences for stars of different mass, and leads to mass segregation, which results in different spatial distributions for stars of different mass. Intermediate-mass black holes significantly increase the velocity dispersions at the centres of clusters. By combining accurate measurements of their internal kinematics with state-of-the-art dynamical models, we can characterise both the velocity dispersion and mass profiles of clusters, tease apart the different effects, and understand how clusters may have formed and evolved.Using proper motions from the Hubble Space Telescope Proper Motion (HSTPROMO) Collaboration for a set of 22 Milky Way globular clusters, and our discrete dynamical modelling techniques designed to work with large, high-quality datasets, we are studying a variety of internal cluster properties. We will present the results of theoretical work on simulated clusters that demonstrates the efficacy of our approach, and preliminary results from application to real clusters.

Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in northern Angola

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Anaemia is known to have an impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modelling approaches. We aimed to (i quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs in anaemia endemicity; and (ii develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data for children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15, S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variations in these infections. Malnutrition, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6% and 9.8% of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria and S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86% were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anaemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control programme with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infections.

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

Science.gov (United States)

Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

Methodology and a preliminary data base for examining the health risks of electricity generation from uranium and coal fuels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

El-Bassioni, A.A.

1980-08-01

An analytical model was developed to assess and examine the health effects associated with the production of electricity from uranium and coal fuels. The model is based on a systematic methodology that is both simple and easy to check, and provides details about the various components of health risk. A preliminary set of data that is needed to calculate the health risks was gathered, normalized to the model facilities, and presented in a concise manner. Additional data will become available as a result of other evaluations of both fuel cycles, and they should be included in the data base. An iterative approach involving only a few steps is recommended for validating the model. After each validation step, the model is improved in the areas where new information or increased interest justifies such upgrading. Sensitivity analysis is proposed as the best method of using the model to its full potential. Detailed quantification of the risks associated with the two fuel cycles is not presented in this report. The evaluation of risks from producing electricity by these two methods can be completed only after several steps that address difficult social and technical questions. Preliminary quantitative assessment showed that several factors not considered in detail in previous studies are potentially important. 255 refs., 21 figs., 179 tabs.

Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

2018-03-01

The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

Aberrations in preliminary design of ITER divertor impurity influx monitor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kitazawa, Sin-iti, E-mail: kitazawa.siniti@jaea.go.jp [Naka Fusion Institute, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, JAEA, Naka 311-0193 (Japan); Ogawa, Hiroaki [Naka Fusion Institute, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, JAEA, Naka 311-0193 (Japan); Katsunuma, Atsushi; Kitazawa, Daisuke [Core Technology Center, Nikon Corporation, Yokohama 244-8533 (Japan); Ohmori, Keisuke [Customized Products Business Unit, Nikon Corporation, Mito 310-0843 (Japan)

2015-12-15

Highlights: • Divertor impurity influx monitor for ITER (DIM) is procured by JADA. • DIM is designed to observe light from nuclear fusion plasma directly. • DIM is under preliminary design phase. • The spot diagrams were suppressed within the core of receiving fiber. • The aberration of DIM is suppressed in the preliminary design. - Abstract: Divertor impurity influx monitor for ITER (DIM) is a diagnostic system that observes light from nuclear fusion plasma directly. This system is affected by various aberrations because it observes light from the fan-array chord near the divertor in the ultraviolet–near infrared wavelength range. The aberrations should be suppressed to the extent possible to observe the light with very high spatial resolution. In the preliminary design of DIM, spot diagrams were suppressed within the core of the receiving fiber's cross section, and the resulting spatial resolutions satisfied the design requirements.

Aberrations in preliminary design of ITER divertor impurity influx monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitazawa, Sin-iti; Ogawa, Hiroaki; Katsunuma, Atsushi; Kitazawa, Daisuke; Ohmori, Keisuke

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Divertor impurity influx monitor for ITER (DIM) is procured by JADA. • DIM is designed to observe light from nuclear fusion plasma directly. • DIM is under preliminary design phase. • The spot diagrams were suppressed within the core of receiving fiber. • The aberration of DIM is suppressed in the preliminary design. - Abstract: Divertor impurity influx monitor for ITER (DIM) is a diagnostic system that observes light from nuclear fusion plasma directly. This system is affected by various aberrations because it observes light from the fan-array chord near the divertor in the ultraviolet–near infrared wavelength range. The aberrations should be suppressed to the extent possible to observe the light with very high spatial resolution. In the preliminary design of DIM, spot diagrams were suppressed within the core of the receiving fiber's cross section, and the resulting spatial resolutions satisfied the design requirements.

A spatially explicit risk assessment approach: Cetaceans and marine traffic in the Pelagos Sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Grazia Pennino

Full Text Available Spatially explicit risk assessment is an essential component of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP, which provides a comprehensive framework for managing multiple uses of the marine environment, minimizing environmental impacts and conflicts among users. In this study, we assessed the risk of the exposure to high intensity vessel traffic areas for the three most abundant cetacean species (Stenella coeruleoalba, Tursiops truncatus and Balaenoptera physalus in the southern area of the Pelagos Sanctuary, which is the only pelagic Marine Protected Area (MPA for marine mammals in the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, we modeled the occurrence of the three cetacean species as a function of habitat variables in June by using hierarchical Bayesian spatial-temporal models. Similarly, we modelled the marine traffic intensity in order to find high risk areas and estimated the potential conflict due to the overlap with the cetacean home ranges. Results identified two main hot-spots of high intensity marine traffic in the area, which partially overlap with the area of presence of the studied species. Our findings emphasize the need for nationally relevant and transboundary planning and management measures for these marine species.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced subtraction MR angiography in intracranial vascular abnormalities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takano, K.; Ono, H.; Utsunomiya, H.; Okazaki, M.; Tanaka, A.

1999-01-01

We present our clinical experience with dynamic contrast-enhanced MR angiography (MRA) with subtraction for assessing intracranial vascular abnormalities. Ten patients with various cerebrovascular disorders underwent dynamic contrast-enhanced MRA on a 1.0-T system. Thirty sections (2 mm) were acquired in 29-30 s. Maximum intensity projection images and subtracted source images were compared with those obtained by conventional angiography. In all cases, the presence or absence of abnormalities in the targeted vessels, as well as the morphology of the sagittal sinuses, was clearly visualized as in conventional angiography, without any obstructions such as hyperintense hematomas or thrombi, or intraluminal turbulence. Although the temporal and spatial resolutions with current hardware are insufficient, these preliminary results suggest that dynamic contrast-enhanced MRA with subtraction may be useful for assessing vascular lesions with hemorrhage or thrombus, and the dural sinuses. (orig.)

How Spatial Abilities and Dynamic Visualizations Interplay When Learning Functional Anatomy with 3D Anatomical Models

Science.gov (United States)

Berney, Sandra; Bétrancourt, Mireille; Molinari, Gaëlle; Hoyek, Nady

2015-01-01

The emergence of dynamic visualizations of three-dimensional (3D) models in anatomy curricula may be an adequate solution for spatial difficulties encountered with traditional static learning, as they provide direct visualization of change throughout the viewpoints. However, little research has explored the interplay between learning material…

Implications of the spatial dynamics of fire spread for the bistability of savanna and forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Schertzer, E; Staver, A C; Levin, S A

2015-01-01

The role of fire in expanding the global distribution of savanna is well recognized. Empirical observations and modeling suggest that fire spread has a threshold response to fuel-layer continuity, which sets up a positive feedback that maintains savanna-forest bistability. However, modeling has so far failed to examine fire spread as a spatial process that interacts with vegetation. Here, we use simple, well-supported assumptions about fire spread as an infection process and its effects on trees to ask whether spatial dynamics qualitatively change the potential for savanna-forest bistability. We show that the spatial effects of fire spread are the fundamental reason that bistability is possible: because fire spread is an infection process, it exhibits a threshold response to fuel continuity followed by a rapid increase in fire size. Other ecological processes affecting fire spread may also contribute including temporal variability in demography or fire spread. Finally, including the potential for spatial aggregation increases the potential both for savanna-forest bistability and for savanna and forest to coexist in a landscape mosaic.

Bovine respiratory syncytial virus and bovine coronavirus antibodies in bulk tank milk - risk factors and spatial analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Toftaker, Ingrid; Sanchez, Javier; Stokstad, Maria; Nødtvedt, Ane

2016-10-01

Bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) and bovine coronavirus (BCoV) are considered widespread among cattle in Norway and worldwide. This cross-sectional study was conducted based on antibody-ELISA of bulk tank milk (BTM) from 1347 herds in two neighboring counties in western Norway. The study aims were to determine the seroprevalence at herd level, to evaluate risk factors for BRSV and BCoV seropositivity, and to assess how these factors were associated with the spatial distribution of positive herds. The overall prevalence of BRSV and BCoV positive herds in the region was 46.2% and 72.2%, respectively. Isopleth maps of the prevalence risk distribution showed large differences in prevalence risk across the study area, with the highest prevalence in the northern region. Common risk factors of importance for both viruses were herd size, geographic location, and proximity to neighbors. Seropositivity for one virus was associated with increased odds of seropositivity for the other virus. Purchase of livestock was an additional risk factor for BCoV seropositivity, included in the model as in-degree, which was defined as the number of incoming movements from individual herds, through animal purchase, over a period of five years. Local dependence and the contribution of risk factors to this effect were assessed using the residuals from two logistic regression models for each virus. One model contained only the x- and y- coordinates as predictors, the other had all significant predictors included. Spatial clusters of high values of residuals were detected using the normal model of the spatial scan statistic and visualized on maps. Adjusting for the risk factors in the final models had different impact on the spatial clusters for the two viruses: For BRSV the number of clusters was reduced from six to four, for BCoV the number of clusters remained the same, however the log-likelihood ratios changed notably. This indicates that geographical differences in proximity to

Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josip Arnerić

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

The spatial scale for cisco recruitment dynamics in Lake Superior during 1978-2007

Science.gov (United States)

Rook, Benjamin J.; Hansen, Michael J.; Gorman, Owen T.

2012-01-01

The cisco Coregonus artedi was once the most abundant fish species in the Great Lakes, but currently cisco populations are greatly reduced and management agencies are attempting to restore the species throughout the basin. To increase understanding of the spatial scale at which density‐independent and density‐dependent factors influence cisco recruitment dynamics in the Great Lakes, we used a Ricker stock–recruitment model to identify and quantify the appropriate spatial scale for modeling age‐1 cisco recruitment dynamics in Lake Superior. We found that the recruitment variation of ciscoes in Lake Superior was best described by a five‐parameter regional model with separate stock–recruitment relationships for the western, southern, eastern, and northern regions. The spatial scale for modeling was about 260 km (range = 230–290 km). We also found that the density‐independent recruitment rate and the rate of compensatory density dependence varied among regions at different rates. The density‐independent recruitment rate was constant among regions (3.6 age‐1 recruits/spawner), whereas the rate of compensatory density dependence varied 16‐fold among regions (range = −0.2 to −2.9/spawner). Finally, we found that peak recruitment and the spawning stock size that produced peak recruitment varied among regions. Both peak recruitment (0.5–7.1 age‐1 recruits/ha) and the spawning stock size that produced peak recruitment (0.3–5.3 spawners/ha) varied 16‐fold among regions. Our findings support the hypothesis that the factors driving cisco recruitment operate within four different regions of Lake Superior, suggest that large‐scale abiotic factors are more important than small‐scale biotic factors in influencing cisco recruitment, and suggest that fishery managers throughout Lake Superior and the entire Great Lakes basin should address cisco restoration and management efforts on a regional scale in each lake.

A spatially-based modeling framework for assessing the risks of soil-associated metals to bats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hernout, Béatrice V.; Somerwill, Kate E.; Arnold, Kathryn E.; McClean, Colin J.; Boxall, Alistair B.A.

2013-01-01

Populations of some species of bats are declining in some regions of Europe. These declines are probably due to a range of pressures, including climate change, urbanization and exposure to toxins such as metals. This paper describes the development, paramaterisation and application of a spatially explicit modeling framework to predict the risks of soil-associated metals (lead, copper, zinc and cadmium) to bat health. Around 5.9% of areas where bats reside were predicted to have lead levels that pose a risk to bat health. For copper, this value was 2.8%, for cadmium it was 0.6% and for zinc 0.5%. Further work is therefore warranted to explore the impacts of soil-associated metals on bat populations in the UK. - Highlights: ► A modeling framework is presented to estimate risks of contaminants to wildlife. ► The model has been applied to soil metal contamination and bat species. ► Results indicate that lead and copper pose the greatest risk to bat health. ► A risk is predicted for up to 6% of areas where bats reside in England and Wales. - Application of a novel, spatially explicit risk assessment framework indicates that the health of insectivorous bat species in some regions of the UK may be at threat from exposure to soil associated metals.

Exploring the Linkage between Urban Flood Risk and Spatial Patterns in Small Urbanized Catchments of Beijing, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Yao

2017-02-01

Full Text Available In the context of global urbanization, urban flood risk in many cities has become a serious environmental issue, threatening the health of residents and the environment. A number of hydrological studies have linked urban flooding issues closely to the spectrum of spatial patterns of urbanization, but relatively little attention has been given to small-scale catchments within the realm of urban systems. This study aims to explore the hydrological effects of small-scaled urbanized catchments assigned with various landscape patterns. Twelve typical residential catchments in Beijing were selected as the study areas. Total Impervious Area (TIA, Directly Connected Impervious Area (DCIA, and a drainage index were used as the catchment spatial metrics. Three scenarios were designed as different spatial arrangement of catchment imperviousness. Runoff variables including total and peak runoff depth (Qt and Qp were simulated by using Strom Water Management Model (SWMM. The relationship between catchment spatial patterns and runoff variables were determined, and the results demonstrated that, spatial patterns have inherent influences on flood risks in small urbanized catchments. Specifically: (1 imperviousness acts as an effective indicator in affecting both Qt and Qp; (2 reducing the number of rainwater inlets appropriately will benefit the catchment peak flow mitigation; (3 different spatial concentrations of impervious surfaces have inherent influences on Qp. These findings provide insights into the role of urban spatial patterns in driving rainfall-runoff processes in small urbanized catchments, which is essential for urban planning and flood management.

Exploring the Linkage between Urban Flood Risk and Spatial Patterns in Small Urbanized Catchments of Beijing, China

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Lei; Chen, Liding; Wei, Wei

2017-01-01

In the context of global urbanization, urban flood risk in many cities has become a serious environmental issue, threatening the health of residents and the environment. A number of hydrological studies have linked urban flooding issues closely to the spectrum of spatial patterns of urbanization, but relatively little attention has been given to small-scale catchments within the realm of urban systems. This study aims to explore the hydrological effects of small-scaled urbanized catchments assigned with various landscape patterns. Twelve typical residential catchments in Beijing were selected as the study areas. Total Impervious Area (TIA), Directly Connected Impervious Area (DCIA), and a drainage index were used as the catchment spatial metrics. Three scenarios were designed as different spatial arrangement of catchment imperviousness. Runoff variables including total and peak runoff depth (Qt and Qp) were simulated by using Strom Water Management Model (SWMM). The relationship between catchment spatial patterns and runoff variables were determined, and the results demonstrated that, spatial patterns have inherent influences on flood risks in small urbanized catchments. Specifically: (1) imperviousness acts as an effective indicator in affecting both Qt and Qp; (2) reducing the number of rainwater inlets appropriately will benefit the catchment peak flow mitigation; (3) different spatial concentrations of impervious surfaces have inherent influences on Qp. These findings provide insights into the role of urban spatial patterns in driving rainfall-runoff processes in small urbanized catchments, which is essential for urban planning and flood management. PMID:28264521

Semantic risk estimation of suspected minefields based on spatial relationships analysis of minefield indicators from multi-level remote sensing imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Jonathan Cheung-Wai; Sahli, Hichem; Wang, Yuhang

2005-06-01

This paper presents semantic risk estimation of suspected minefields using spatial relationships of minefield indicators extracted from multi-level remote sensing. Both satellite image and pyramidal airborne acquisitions from 900m to 30m flying heights with resolutions from 1m to 2cm resolutions are used for identification of minefield indicators. R-Histogram [1] is a quantitative representation of spatial relationship between two objects in an image. Eight spatial relationships can be generated: 1) LEFT OF, 2) RIGHT OF, 3) ABOVE, 4) BELOW, 5) NEAR, 6) FAR, 7) INSIDE, 8) OUTSIDE. R-Histogram semantics are first generated from selected indicators and metrics such as topological proximity and directional relationships are trained for soft classification of risk index (normalized as 0-1). We presented a framework of how semantic metadata generated from remote sensing images are used in risk estimation. The resultant risk index identified seven out of twelve mine accidents occurred at high risk region. More importantly, comparison with ground truth obtained after mine clearance show that three out of the four identified pattern minefields falls into the area estimated at very high risk. A parcel-based per-field risk estimation can also be easily generated to show the usefulness of the risk index.

Spatial Modeling of Risk in Natural Resource Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Jones

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Making decisions in natural resource management involves an understanding of the risk and uncertainty of the outcomes, such as crop failure or cattle starvation, and of the normal spread of the expected production. Hedging against poor outcomes often means lack of investment and slow adoption of new methods. At the household level, production instability can have serious effects on income and food security. At the national level, it can have social and economic impacts that may affect all sectors of society. Crop models such as CERES-Maize are excellent tools for assessing weather-related production variability. WATBAL is a water balance model that can provide robust estimates of the potential growing days for a pasture. These models require large quantities of daily weather data that are rarely available. MarkSim is an application for generating synthetic daily weather files by estimating the third-order Markov model parameters from interpolated climate surfaces. The models can then be run for each distinct point on the map. This paper examines the growth of maize and pasture in dryland agriculture in southern Africa. Weather simulators produce independent estimates for each point on the map; however, we know that a spatial coherence of weather exists. We investigated a method of incorporating spatial coherence into MarkSim and show that it increases the variance of production. This means that all of the farmers in a coherent area share poor yields, with important consequences for food security, markets, transport, and shared grazing lands. The long-term aspects of risk are associated with global climate change. We used the results of a Global Circulation Model to extrapolate to the year 2055. We found that low maize yields would become more likely in the marginal areas, whereas they may actually increase in some areas. The same trend was found with pasture growth. We outline areas where further work is required before these tools and methods

From complex spatial dynamics to simple Markov chain models: do predators and prey leave footprints?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nachman, Gøsta Støger; Borregaard, Michael Krabbe

2010-01-01

to another, are then depicted in a state transition diagram, constituting the "footprints" of the underlying population dynamics. We investigate to what extent changes in the population processes modeled in the complex simulation (i.e. the predator's functional response and the dispersal rates of both......In this paper we present a concept for using presence-absence data to recover information on the population dynamics of predator-prey systems. We use a highly complex and spatially explicit simulation model of a predator-prey mite system to generate simple presence-absence data: the number...... of transition probabilities on state variables, and combine this information in a Markov chain transition matrix model. Finally, we use this extended model to predict the long-term dynamics of the system and to reveal its asymptotic steady state properties....

A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Garbolino, Emmanuel; Chery, Jean-Pierre; Guarnieri, Franck

2016-01-01

Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Value of Nature-Based Recreation, Estimated via Social Media

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Keri B.; Wood, Spencer A.; Ricketts, Taylor H.

2016-01-01

Conserved lands provide multiple ecosystem services, including opportunities for nature-based recreation. Managing this service requires understanding the landscape attributes underpinning its provision, and how changes in land management affect its contribution to human wellbeing over time. However, evidence from both spatially explicit and temporally dynamic analyses is scarce, often due to data limitations. In this study, we investigated nature-based recreation within conserved lands in Vermont, USA. We used geotagged photographs uploaded to the photo-sharing website Flickr to quantify visits by in-state and out-of-state visitors, and we multiplied visits by mean trip expenditures to show that conserved lands contributed US $1.8 billion (US $0.18–20.2 at 95% confidence) to Vermont’s tourism industry between 2007 and 2014. We found eight landscape attributes explained the pattern of visits to conserved lands; visits were higher in larger conserved lands, with less forest cover, greater trail density and more opportunities for snow sports. Some of these attributes differed from those found in other locations, but all aligned with our understanding of recreation in Vermont. We also found that using temporally static models to inform conservation decisions may have perverse outcomes for nature-based recreation. For example, static models suggest conserved land with less forest cover receive more visits, but temporally dynamic models suggest clearing forests decreases, rather than increases, visits to these sites. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding both the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services for conservation decision-making. PMID:27611325

Hotspots of Community Change: Temporal Dynamics Are Spatially Variable in Understory Plant Composition of a California Oak Woodland.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erica N Spotswood

Full Text Available Community response to external drivers such climate and disturbance can lead to fluctuations in community composition, or to directional change. Temporal dynamics can be influenced by a combination of drivers operating at multiple spatial scales, including external landscape scale drivers, local abiotic conditions, and local species pools. We hypothesized that spatial variation in these factors can create heterogeneity in temporal dynamics within landscapes. We used understory plant species composition from an 11 year dataset from a California oak woodland to compare plots where disturbance was experimentally manipulated with the removal of livestock grazing and a prescribed burn. We quantified three properties of temporal variation: compositional change (reflecting the appearance and disappearance of species, temporal fluctuation, and directional change. Directional change was related most strongly to disturbance type, and was highest at plots where grazing was removed during the study. Temporal fluctuations, compositional change, and directional change were all related to intrinsic abiotic factors, suggesting that some locations are more responsive to external drivers than others. Temporal fluctuations and compositional change were linked to local functional composition, indicating that environmental filters can create subsets of the local species pool that do not respond in the same way to external drivers. Temporal dynamics are often assumed to be relatively static at the landscape scale, provided disturbance and climate are continuous. This study shows that local and landscape scale factors jointly influence temporal dynamics creating hotspots that are particularly responsive to climate and disturbance. Thus, adequate predictions of response to disturbance or to changing climate will only be achieved by considering how factors at multiple spatial scales influence community resilience and recovery.

Hotspots of Community Change: Temporal Dynamics Are Spatially Variable in Understory Plant Composition of a California Oak Woodland.

Science.gov (United States)

Spotswood, Erica N; Bartolome, James W; Allen-Diaz, Barbara

2015-01-01

Community response to external drivers such climate and disturbance can lead to fluctuations in community composition, or to directional change. Temporal dynamics can be influenced by a combination of drivers operating at multiple spatial scales, including external landscape scale drivers, local abiotic conditions, and local species pools. We hypothesized that spatial variation in these factors can create heterogeneity in temporal dynamics within landscapes. We used understory plant species composition from an 11 year dataset from a California oak woodland to compare plots where disturbance was experimentally manipulated with the removal of livestock grazing and a prescribed burn. We quantified three properties of temporal variation: compositional change (reflecting the appearance and disappearance of species), temporal fluctuation, and directional change. Directional change was related most strongly to disturbance type, and was highest at plots where grazing was removed during the study. Temporal fluctuations, compositional change, and directional change were all related to intrinsic abiotic factors, suggesting that some locations are more responsive to external drivers than others. Temporal fluctuations and compositional change were linked to local functional composition, indicating that environmental filters can create subsets of the local species pool that do not respond in the same way to external drivers. Temporal dynamics are often assumed to be relatively static at the landscape scale, provided disturbance and climate are continuous. This study shows that local and landscape scale factors jointly influence temporal dynamics creating hotspots that are particularly responsive to climate and disturbance. Thus, adequate predictions of response to disturbance or to changing climate will only be achieved by considering how factors at multiple spatial scales influence community resilience and recovery.

Spatial proximity and the risk of psychopathology after a terrorist attack

OpenAIRE

DiMaggio, Charles; Galea, Sandro; Emch, Michael

2010-01-01

Previous studies concerned with the relation of proximity to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and subsequent psychopathology have produced conflicting results. The goals of this analysis are to assess the appropriateness of using Bayesian hierarchical spatial techniques to answer the question of the role of proximity to a mass trauma as a risk factor for psychopathology. Using a set of individual-level Medicaid data for New York State, and controlling for age, gender, median household...

Analysis the temporal and spatial impact of water harvesting on Aforestation processes, at the Northen Negev region, Israel

Science.gov (United States)

Argaman, E.; Egozi, R.; Goldshlager, N.

2012-04-01

Water availability in arid regions is a major limiting factor, which affect plant development. Therefore, knowledge about preliminary and ongoing spatial & temporal conditions (e.g. land surface properties, hydrological regime and vegetation dynamics) can improve greatly afforestation practice. The Ambassadors forest is one of the Jewish National Fund (JNF) new afforestation projects (initiated on 2005), which rely on water harvesting irrigation systems, located at the northern Negev region, Israel. Temporal and spatial processes are studied utilizing ground, air-borne and space-borne techniques for assessment of surface processes, that take place due to significant land-use change. Since 2005 the area shows significant variation of surface energy balance components which impact the spatial and temporal forest generation. Both human and climate affect these parameters, hence their influence is essential for future study of the region. Parameters of surface Albedo & Temperature and Vegetation dynamics are gathered by space-borne sensors (e.g. MODIS, Landsat & ALI) and verified at field scale in conjunction with ground-truth measurements of climate and soil properties. In addition, the project study various scenarios that might result from diverse climate trajectories that impact soil formation factors and therefore forest development. Preliminary results show that surface physical & ecoligical properties had changed significantly since the aforestation project began, comparing previous years. Sharp increase of surface albedo detected since 2005 that raised from 0.25 to 0.32, while vegetation density, estimated from NDVI, had dropped from annaul average of 0.21 down to 0.13 during 10-year time period. These changes are related to human interferance. The current paper presents the first phase of the long-term study of the Remote Sensing analysis and the current surface monitoring phase.

Spatial Distribution, Sources Apportionment and Health Risk of Metals in Topsoil in Beijing, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunyuan Sun

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In order to acquire the pollution feature and regularities of distribution of metals in the topsoil within the sixth ring road in Beijing, a total of 46 soil samples were collected, and the concentrations of twelve elements (Nickel, Ni, Lithium, Li, Vanadium, V, Cobalt, Co, Barium, Ba, Strontium, Sr, Chrome, Cr, Molybdenum, Mo, Copper, Cu, Cadmium, Cd, Zinc, Zn, Lead, Pb were analyzed. Geostatistics and multivariate statistics were conducted to identify spatial distribution characteristics and sources. In addition, the health risk of the analyzed heavy metals to humans (adult was evaluated by an U.S. Environmental Protection Agency health risk assessment model. The results indicate that these metals have notable variation in spatial scale. The concentration of Cr was high in the west and low in the east, while that of Mo was high in the north and low in the south. High concentrations of Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb were found in the central part of the city. The average enrichment degree of Cd is 5.94, reaching the standard of significant enrichment. The accumulation of Cr, Mo, Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb is influenced by anthropogenic activity, including vehicle exhaustion, coal burning, and industrial processes. Health risk assessment shows that both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks of selected heavy metals are within the safety standard and the rank of the carcinogenic risk of the four heavy metals is Cr > Co > Ni > Cd.

Spatial Distribution, Sources Apportionment and Health Risk of Metals in Topsoil in Beijing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Chunyuan; Zhao, Wenji; Zhang, Qianzhong; Yu, Xue; Zheng, Xiaoxia; Zhao, Jiayin; Lv, Ming

2016-07-20

In order to acquire the pollution feature and regularities of distribution of metals in the topsoil within the sixth ring road in Beijing, a total of 46 soil samples were collected, and the concentrations of twelve elements (Nickel, Ni, Lithium, Li, Vanadium, V, Cobalt, Co, Barium, Ba, Strontium, Sr, Chrome, Cr, Molybdenum, Mo, Copper, Cu, Cadmium, Cd, Zinc, Zn, Lead, Pb) were analyzed. Geostatistics and multivariate statistics were conducted to identify spatial distribution characteristics and sources. In addition, the health risk of the analyzed heavy metals to humans (adult) was evaluated by an U.S. Environmental Protection Agency health risk assessment model. The results indicate that these metals have notable variation in spatial scale. The concentration of Cr was high in the west and low in the east, while that of Mo was high in the north and low in the south. High concentrations of Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb were found in the central part of the city. The average enrichment degree of Cd is 5.94, reaching the standard of significant enrichment. The accumulation of Cr, Mo, Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb is influenced by anthropogenic activity, including vehicle exhaustion, coal burning, and industrial processes. Health risk assessment shows that both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks of selected heavy metals are within the safety standard and the rank of the carcinogenic risk of the four heavy metals is Cr > Co > Ni > Cd.

A generalized Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) for urban drainage RTC

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vezzaro, Luca; Grum, Morten

2012-01-01

An innovative generalized approach for integrated real time control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy tries to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii) the expe......An innovative generalized approach for integrated real time control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy tries to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii...... to reduce Combined Sewer Overflow loads and to optimize the flow discharged to the wastewater treatment plant. Also, the inclusion of forecasts and their uncertainty contributed to further improve the performance of drainage systems. The results of this paper will contribute to a wider usage of global RTC...

Spatially-resolved studies of charge-density-wave phase slip and dynamics in NbSe3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemay, S.G.; Adelman, T.L.; Zaitsev-Zotov, S.V.; Thorne, R.E.

1999-01-01

We review our spatially and temporally resolved studies of charge-density-wave (CDW) phase slip and dynamics in NbSe 3 . Measurements of the steady-state CDW current, phase slip and strain profiles and their transient evolutions in response to a change in current direction provide a detailed picture of the interplay between elastic deformations and plasticity in this material. (orig.)

[Dynamic evolution of landscape spatial pattern in Taihu Lake basin, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Fang; Xie, Xiao Ping; Chen, Zhi Cong

2017-11-01

Based on the land-use satellite image datasets of 2000, 2010 and 2015, the landscape index, dynamic change model, landscape transfer matrix and CLUE-S model were integrated to analyze the dynamic evolution of the landscape spatial pattern of Taihu Lake basin. The results showed that the landscape type of the basin was dominated by cultivated land and construction land, and the degree of landscape fragmentation was strengthened from 2000 to 2015, and the distribution showed a uniform trend. From the point of transfer dynamic change, the cultivated land and construction land changed significantly, which was reduced by 6761 km 2 (2.1%) and increased by 6615.33 km 2 (8.4%), respectively. From the landscape transfer, it could be seen that the main change direction of the cultivated land reduction was the construction land, and the cultivated land with 7866.30 km 2 was converted into construction land, accounting for 91.6% of the cultivated land change, and the contribution to the construction land was 96.5%. The trend of dynamic changes of cultivated and construction land in the counties and cities was the same as that of the whole Taihu Lake basin. For Shanghai Central Urban, as well as Pudong District, Lin'an City, Baoshan District, Minhang District, Jiading District and Changzhou City, the area of the cultivated land and construction land changed more prominently. However, compared with the CLUE-S model for the landscape pattern change in 2030, the change of cultivated and construction lands would be the largest in the natural development scenario. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of grassland would increase and the dynamic degree would reach 54.5%. Under the situation of cultivated land protection, the conversion of cultivated land to construction land would be decreased.

The friction of polymers around Tg,Tm : Preliminary results

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sivebæk, Ion Marius; Samoilov, V N; Persson, B N J

We present Molecular Dynamics calculations involving polymers of different lengths. Polymers with lengths from 20 to 1400 carbon atoms are considered. The systems are able to simulate friction between polymer surfaces and polymer against metal. The results we present are very preliminary and they......We present Molecular Dynamics calculations involving polymers of different lengths. Polymers with lengths from 20 to 1400 carbon atoms are considered. The systems are able to simulate friction between polymer surfaces and polymer against metal. The results we present are very preliminary...

Some recent research findings on the social dynamics of environmental risk perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horlick-Jones, T.; Marchi, B. de; Del Zotto, M.; Pellizzoni, L.; Ungaro, D.; Prades Lopez, A.; Diaz Hidalgo, M.; Pidgeon, N.; Sime, J.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: key themes: social dynamics of public risk perception; trust, tolerability, and risk management; discourses of environmental risk; implications for risk communication and environmental valuation; application of mixed qualitative/quantitative methods in risk perception research. This paper presents some of the key findings of a two-year comparative European study (the PRISP Project) on public perception of risks associated with industrial sites in the UK, Italy and Spain. The project utilised a mixed-method approach (comprising community ethnography, semi-structured interviews, questionnaire survey and focus groups), within a Grounded Theory framework, to examine the social dynamics of risk comprehension, tolerability and politics in settings adjacent to a range of industrial facilities. These often complex industrial zones present a portfolio of 'acute' and 'chronic' risks including hazards associated with sites regulated by the European Union COMAH Directive. Our findings have important implications for the regulation of both major accident hazard and pollution risks, risk communication programmes, industrial risk management practices and for the methodological basis of health and safety and environmental valuation techniques. (authors)

Dynamic loads during failure risk assessment of bridge crane structures

Science.gov (United States)

Gorynin, A. D.; Antsev, V. Yu; Shaforost, A. N.

2018-03-01

The paper presents the method of failure risk assessment associated with a bridge crane metal structure at the design stage. It also justifies the necessity of taking into account dynamic loads with regard to the operational cycle of a bridge crane during failure risk assessment of its metal structure.

Altered visual-spatial attention to task-irrelevant information is associated with falls risk in older adults

Science.gov (United States)

Nagamatsu, Lindsay S.; Munkacsy, Michelle; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa; Handy, Todd C.

2014-01-01

Executive cognitive functions play a critical role in falls risk – a pressing health care issue in seniors. In particular, intact attentional processing is integral for safe mobility and navigation. However, the specific contribution of impaired visual-spatial attention in falls remains unclear. In this study, we examined the association between visual-spatial attention to task-irrelevant stimuli and falls risk in community-dwelling older adults. Participants completed a visual target discrimination task at fixation while task-irrelevant probes were presented in both visual fields. We assessed attention to left and right peripheral probes using event-related potentials (ERPs). Falls risk was determined using the valid and reliable Physiological Profile Assessment (PPA). We found a significantly positive association between reduced attentional facilitation, as measured by the N1 ERP component, and falls risk. This relationship was specific to probes presented in the left visual field and measured at ipsilateral electrode sites. Our results suggest that fallers exhibit reduced attention to the left side of visual space and provide evidence that impaired right hemispheric function and/or structure may contribute to falls. PMID:24436970

Brazilian Amazon Roads and Parks: Temporal & Spatial Deforestation Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Pfaff, A.; Robalino, J.

2011-12-01

Heterogeneous Forest Impacts of Transport Infrastructure: spatial frontier dynamics & impacts of Brazilian Amazon road changes Prior research on road impacts has almost completely ignored heterogeneity of impacts and as a result both empirically understated potential impact and missed policy potential. We note von Thunen's model suggests not only heterogeneity with distance from market but also specifically road impacts rising then falling with distance ('non-monoThunicity') Endogenous development and partial adjustment dynamics support this for the short run. Causal effects result from studying Brazilian Amazon deforestation (1976-87, 2000-04) using matching for short-run responses to lagged new roads changes (1968-75, 1985-00). We show the critical role of prior development, proxied by 1968 and 1985 road distances, for which exact matching addresses development trends and transforms impact estimates. Splitting the sample on this measure finds confirmation of the nonmonotonic predictions: new road impacts are relatively low if a prior road was close, such that prior transport access and endogenous development dynamics compete with the new road for influence, but also if a prior road was far, since first-decade adjustment in pristine areas is limited; yet in between these bounds, investments immediately raise deforestation significantly. This pattern helps to explain lower estimates within research on a single average impact. It suggests potential for REDD if a country chooses to shift its spatial transport networks. Protected Areas & Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: modeling and testing the impacts of varied PA strategies We model and then estimate the impacts of multiple types of protected areas upon 2000 - 2004 deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Our modeling starts with federal versus state objectives and predicts differences in both choice and implementation of each PA strategy that we examine. Our empirical examination brings not only breakdowns sufficient

Prevalence, risk factors and spatial analysis of liver fluke infections in Danish cattle herds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Abbey; Frankena, Klaas; Bødker, Rene

2015-01-01

Background: Fasciola hepatica, a trematode parasite (liver fluke), infects a wide range of host species causing fasciolosis. The disease is prevalent world-wide and causes considerable economic losses to the livestock industry. Fasciolosis is regarded as an emerging food-borne zoonosis. To promote...... awareness among farmers and to implement strategies to control the infection, this study examined the prevalence, spatial distribution and risk factors for Fasciola hepatica infection in Danish cattle herds. Methods: A retrospective population based study was performed using meat inspection data...... of approximately 1.5 million cattle slaughtered in the period 2011 to 2013. Annual cumulative prevalence of recorded liver fluke findings was calculated for each year. Global and local spatial cluster analysis was used to identify and map spatial patterns of Fasciola hepatica positive and negative herds to explore...

Dynamically assisted Schwinger effect beyond the spatially-uniform-field approximation

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrov, I. A.; Plunien, G.; Shabaev, V. M.

2018-06-01

We investigate the phenomenon of electron-positron pair production from vacuum in the presence of a strong electric field superimposed by a weak but fast varying pulse which substantially increases the total particle yield. We employ a nonperturbative numerical technique and perform the calculations beyond the spatially-uniform-field approximation, i.e., dipole approximation, taking into account the coordinate dependence of the fast component. The analysis of the main characteristics of the pair-production process (momentum spectra of particles and total amount of pairs) reveals a number of important features which are absent within the previously used approximation. In particular, the structure of the momentum distribution is modified both qualitatively and quantitatively, and the total number of pairs created as well as the enhancement factor due to dynamical assistance become significantly smaller.

Contribution of industrial density and socioeconomic status to the spatial distribution of thyroid cancer risk in Hangzhou, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Fei, Xufeng; Lou, Zhaohan; Christakos, George; Liu, Qingmin; Ren, Yanjun; Wu, Jiaping

2018-02-01

The thyroid cancer (TC) incidence in China has increased dramatically during the last three decades. Typical in this respect is the case of Hangzhou city (China), where 7147 new TC cases were diagnosed during the period 2008-2012. Hence, the assessment of the TC incidence risk increase due to environmental exposure is an important public health matter. Correlation analysis, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Poisson regression were first used to evaluate the statistical association between TC and key risk factors (industrial density and socioeconomic status). Then, the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) theory and the integrative disease predictability (IDP) criterion were combined to quantitatively assess both the overall and the spatially distributed strength of the "exposure-disease" association. Overall, higher socioeconomic status was positively correlated with higher TC risk (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.687, P<0.01). Compared to people of low socioeconomic status, people of median and high socioeconomic status showed higher TC risk: the Relative Risk (RR) and associated 95% confidence interval (CI) were found to be, respectively, RR=2.29 with 95% CI=1.99 to 2.63, and RR=3.67 with 95% CI=3.22 to 4.19. The "industrial density-TC incidence" correlation, however, was non-significant. Spatially, the "socioeconomic status-TC" association measured by the corresponding IDP coefficient was significant throughout the study area: the mean IDP value was -0.12 and the spatial IDP values were consistently negative at the township level. It was found that stronger associations were distributed among residents mainly on a stripe of land from northeast to southwest (consisting mainly of sub-district areas). The "industrial density-TC" association measured by its IDP coefficient was spatially non-consistent. Socioeconomic status is an important indicator of TC risk factor in Hangzhou (China) whose effect varies across space. Hence, socioeconomic status shows the highest TC

Organizational reputation risk management as a component of the dynamic capabilities management process1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krzakiewicz Kazimierz

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Intangible assets, such as reputation, brand value, strategic position, alliances, knowledge, human capital, play an increasingly important role in shaping the market value of an organization. At the same time, in the literature it is emphasized that the attribute of intangibility translates into an increased risk of destruction or impairment of assets. Thus, the research problem associated with the analysis of organizational reputation risk management as a component of the dynamic capabilities management process should be considered important from the point of view of management science. The study attempts to outline the concept of dynamic capabilities, define the concept of risk and subsequently discuss the relationship between dynamic capabilities and organizational reputation risk management.

Closed-loop digital control of nuclear reactors characterized by spatial dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, J.A.; Henry, A.F.; Lanning, D.D.; Meyer, J.E.

1991-03-01

This report describes the theoretical development and the evaluation via both simulation and, to a lesser degree, experiment of a digital method for the closed-loop control of power and temperature in reactors characterized by spatial dynamics. The major conclusions of the research are that (1) the sophistication of advanced reactor physics and thermal-hydraulic nodal methods is now such that accurate, real-time models of spatially-dependent, heterogeneous reactor cores can be run on present-generation minicomputers; (2) operation of both present-day commercial reactors as well as the multi-modular reactors now being considered for construction in the United States could be significantly improved by incorporating model-generated information on in-core conditions in a digital controller; and (3) digital controllers for spatially-dependent reactors should have a hierarchical or multi-tiered structure consisting of supervisory algorithms that preclude challenges to the safety system, global control laws designed to provide an optimal response to temperature and power perturbations, and local control laws that maintain parameters such as the margin to departure from nucleate boiling within specification. The technology described is appropriate to present-day pressurized water reactors and to the proposed multi-modular designs. The end-product of this research was a (near) real-time analytic plant-estimation code that was given the acronym POPSICLE for POwer Plant SImulator and ControlLEr. POPSICLE's core neutronics model is based on a quasi-static transient solution of the analytic nodal diffusion equations. 126 refs., 159 figs., 17 tabs

Closed-loop digital control of nuclear reactors characterized by spatial dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, J.A. (Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (USA). Nuclear Reactor Lab.); Henry, A.F.; Lanning, D.D.; Meyer, J.E. (Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (USA). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering)

1991-03-01

This report describes the theoretical development and the evaluation via both simulation and, to a lesser degree, experiment of a digital method for the closed-loop control of power and temperature in reactors characterized by spatial dynamics. The major conclusions of the research are that (1) the sophistication of advanced reactor physics and thermal-hydraulic nodal methods is now such that accurate, real-time models of spatially-dependent, heterogeneous reactor cores can be run on present-generation minicomputers; (2) operation of both present-day commercial reactors as well as the multi-modular reactors now being considered for construction in the United States could be significantly improved by incorporating model-generated information on in-core conditions in a digital controller; and (3) digital controllers for spatially-dependent reactors should have a hierarchical or multi-tiered structure consisting of supervisory algorithms that preclude challenges to the safety system, global control laws designed to provide an optimal response to temperature and power perturbations, and local control laws that maintain parameters such as the margin to departure from nucleate boiling within specification. The technology described is appropriate to present-day pressurized water reactors and to the proposed multi-modular designs. The end-product of this research was a (near) real-time analytic plant-estimation code that was given the acronym POPSICLE for POwer Plant SImulator and ControlLEr. POPSICLE's core neutronics model is based on a quasi-static transient solution of the analytic nodal diffusion equations. 126 refs., 159 figs., 17 tabs.

Risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model at different spatial-temporal scales

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Xu, Jinchao; Guo, Qizhong; Hang, Qingfeng; Chen, Yaqian

2018-05-01

Aiming at reducing losses from flood disaster, risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model is studied. The model is built upon risk indices in flood disaster system, proceeding from the whole structure and its parts at different spatial-temporal scales. In this study, on the one hand, it mainly establishes the long-term forewarning model for the surface area with three levels of prediction, evaluation, and forewarning. The method of structure-adaptive back-propagation neural network on peak identification is used to simulate indices in prediction sub-model. Set pair analysis is employed to calculate the connection degrees of a single index, comprehensive index, and systematic risk through the multivariate connection number, and the comprehensive assessment is made by assessment matrixes in evaluation sub-model. The comparison judging method is adopted to divide warning degree of flood disaster on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards in forewarning sub-model and then the long-term local conditions for proposing planning schemes. On the other hand, it mainly sets up the real-time forewarning model for the spot, which introduces the real-time correction technique of Kalman filter based on hydrological model with forewarning index, and then the real-time local conditions for presenting an emergency plan. This study takes Tunxi area, Huangshan City of China, as an example. After risk assessment and forewarning model establishment and application for flood disaster at different spatial-temporal scales between the actual and simulated data from 1989 to 2008, forewarning results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk remains a decline on the whole from 2009 to 2013, despite the rise in 2011. At the macroscopic level, project and non-project measures are advanced, while at the microcosmic level, the time, place, and method are listed. It suggests that the proposed model is feasible with theory and application, thus

Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

2017-07-20

For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-09-01

Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors and Spatial Clusters of Cryptosporidium Infection among School-Age Children in a Rural Region of Eastern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Hao; He, Jianfeng; Wang, Li; Zhang, Rong; Ding, Zhen; Hu, Wenbiao

2018-05-06

The epidemiological features of Cryptosporidium infection among school-age children in China still remain unclear. Hereby, a cross-sectional study of 1637 children aged 3⁻9 years was designed to investigate the risk factors and spatial clusters of Cryptosporidium infection in a rural region of Eastern China. Stool specimens collected from participants were examined using the auramine-phenol and modified acid-fast staining. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify the risk factors of Cryptospordium infection. The spatial clusters were analyzed by a discrete Poisson model using SaTScan software. Our results showed that the overall prevalence of Cryptosporidium infection was 11‰ in the research region. At the age of 3⁻6 years (odds ratios (OR) = 3.072, 95% confidence intervals (CI) : 1.001⁻9.427), not washing hands before eating and after defecation (OR = 3.003, 95% CI: 1.060⁻8.511) were recognized as risk factors. Furthermore, a high-risk spatial cluster (relative risk = 4.220, p = 0.025) was identified. These findings call for effective sustainable interventions including family and school-based hygienic education to reduce the prevalence of Cryptosporidium infection. Therefore, an early warning system based spatiotemporal models with risk factors is required to further improve the effectiveness and efficiency of cryptosporidiosis control in the future.

Spatial distributions of niche-constructing populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaozhuo Han

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Niche construction theory regards organisms not only as the object of natural selection but also an active subject that can change their own selective pressure through eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Through reviewing the existing works on the theoretical models of niche construction, here we present the progress made on how niche construction influences genetic structure of spatially structured populations and the spatial-temporal dynamics of metapopulations, with special focuses on mathematical models and simulation methods. The majority of results confirmed that niche construction can significantly alter the evolutionary trajectories of structured populations. Organism-environmental interactions induced by niche construction can have profound influence on the dynamics, competition and diversity of metapopulations. It can affect fine-scale spatially distribution of species and spatial heterogeneity of the environment. We further propose a few research directions with potentials, such as applying adaptive dynamics or spatial game theory to explore the effect of niche construction on phenotypic evolution and diversification.

Representation of spatial and temporal variability of daily wind speed and of intense wind events over the Mediterranean Sea using dynamical downscaling: impact of the regional climate model configuration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Herrmann

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric datasets coming from long term reanalyzes of low spatial resolution are used for different purposes. Wind over the sea is, for example, a major ingredient of oceanic simulations. However, the shortcomings of those datasets prevent them from being used without an adequate corrective preliminary treatment. Using a regional climate model (RCM to perform a dynamical downscaling of those large scale reanalyzes is one of the methods used in order to produce fields that realistically reproduce atmospheric chronology and where those shortcomings are corrected. Here we assess the influence of the configuration of the RCM used in this framework on the representation of wind speed spatial and temporal variability and intense wind events on a daily timescale. Our RCM is ALADIN-Climate, the reanalysis is ERA-40, and the studied area is the Mediterranean Sea.

First, the dynamical downscaling significantly reduces the underestimation of daily wind speed, in average by 9 % over the whole Mediterranean. This underestimation has been corrected both globally and locally, and for the whole wind speed spectrum. The correction is the strongest for periods and regions of strong winds. The representation of spatial variability has also been significantly improved. On the other hand, the temporal correlation between the downscaled field and the observations decreases all the more that one moves eastwards, i.e. further from the atmospheric flux entry. Nonetheless, it remains ~0.7, the downscaled dataset reproduces therefore satisfactorily the real chronology.

Second, the influence of the choice of the RCM configuration has an influence one order of magnitude smaller than the improvement induced by the initial downscaling. The use of spectral nudging or of a smaller domain helps to improve the realism of the temporal chronology. Increasing the resolution very locally (both spatially and temporally improves the representation of spatial

Spatial distribution and risk factors of influenza in Jiangsu province, China, based on geographical information system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jia-Cheng Zhang

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Influenza poses a constant, heavy burden on society. Recent research has focused on ecological factors associated with influenza incidence and has also studied influenza with respect to its geographic spread at different scales. This research explores the temporal and spatial parameters of influenza and identifies factors influencing its transmission. A spatial autocorrelation analysis, a spatial-temporal cluster analysis and a spatial regression analysis of influenza rates, carried out in Jiangsu province from 2004 to 2011, found that influenza rates to be spatially dependent in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. South-western districts consistently revealed hotspots of high-incidence influenza. The regression analysis indicates that railways, rivers and lakes are important predictive environmental variables for influenza risk. A better understanding of the epidemic pattern and ecological factors associated with pandemic influenza should benefit public health officials with respect to prevention and controlling measures during future epidemics.

[Spatial and temporal dynamics of the weed community in the Zoysia matrella lawn].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jia-Qi; Li, You-Han; Zeng, Ying; Xie, Xin-Ming

2014-02-01

The heterogeneity of species composition is one of the main attributes in weed community dynamics. Based on species frequency and power law, this paper studied the variations of weed community species composition and spatial heterogeneity in a Zoysia matrella lawn in Guangzhou at different time. The results showed that there were 43 weed species belonging to 19 families in the Z. matrella lawn from 2007 to 2009, in which Gramineae, Compositae, Cyperaceae and Rubiaceae had a comparative advantage. Perennial weeds accounted for the largest proportion of weeds and increased gradually in the three years. Weed communities distributed in higher heterogeneity than in a random model. Dominant weeds varied with season and displayed regularity in the order of 'dicotyledon-monocotyledon-dicotyledon weeds' and 'perennial-annual-perennial weeds'. The spatial heterogeneity of weed community in Z. matrella lawn was higher in summer than in winter. The diversity and evenness of weed community were higher in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. The number of weed species with high heterogeneity in summer was higher than in the other seasons. The spatial heterogeneity and diversity of weed community had no significant change in the three years, while the evenness of weed community had the tendency to decline gradually.

Effect of temperature and density fluctuations on the spatially heterogeneous dynamics of glass-forming Van der Waals liquids under high pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Koperwas, K; Grzybowski, A; Grzybowska, K; Wojnarowska, Z; Sokolov, A P; Paluch, M

2013-09-20

In this Letter, we show how temperature and density fluctuations affect the spatially heterogeneous dynamics at ambient and elevated pressures. By using high-pressure experimental data for van der Waals liquids, we examine contributions of the temperature and density fluctuations to the dynamics heterogeneity. We show that the dynamic heterogeneity decreases significantly with increasing pressure at a constant structural relaxation time (isochronal condition), while the broadening of the relaxation spectrum remains constant. This observation questions the relationship between spectral broadening and dynamic heterogeneity.

Slope-scale dynamic states of rockfalls

Science.gov (United States)

Agliardi, F.; Crosta, G. B.

2009-04-01

Rockfalls are common earth surface phenomena characterised by complex dynamics at the slope scale, depending on local block kinematics and slope geometry. We investigated the nature of this slope-scale dynamics by parametric 3D numerical modelling of rockfalls over synthetic slopes with different inclination, roughness and spatial resolution. Simulations were performed through an original code specifically designed for rockfall modeling, incorporating kinematic and hybrid algorithms with different damping functions available to model local energy loss by impact and pure rolling. Modelling results in terms of average velocity profiles suggest that three dynamic regimes (i.e. decelerating, steady-state and accelerating), previously recognized in the literature through laboratory experiments on granular flows, can set up at the slope scale depending on slope average inclination and roughness. Sharp changes in rock fall kinematics, including motion type and lateral dispersion of trajectories, are associated to the transition among different regimes. Associated threshold conditions, portrayed in "phase diagrams" as slope-roughness critical lines, were analysed depending on block size, impact/rebound angles, velocity and energy, and model spatial resolution. Motion in regime B (i.e. steady state) is governed by a slope-scale "viscous friction" with average velocity linearly related to the sine of slope inclination. This suggest an analogy between rockfall motion in regime B and newtonian flow, whereas in regime C (i.e. accelerating) an analogy with a dilatant flow was observed. Thus, although local behavior of single falling blocks is well described by rigid body dynamics, the slope scale dynamics of rockfalls seem to statistically approach that of granular media. Possible outcomes of these findings include a discussion of the transition from rockfall to granular flow, the evaluation of the reliability of predictive models, and the implementation of criteria for a

Preliminary Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System: Task 2.1.1: Evaluating Effects of Stressors – Fiscal Year 2010 Progress Report: Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

2010-11-15

Possible environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term effects. An understanding of risk associated with likely interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help reduce the level of uncertainty and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases - a tidal project in Puget Sound using Open Hydro turbines, a wave project off the coast of Oregon using Ocean Power Technologies point attenuator buoys, and a riverine current project in the Mississippi River using Free Flow turbines. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in all three cases were the effects of the dynamic physical presence of the device (e.g., strike), accidents, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the four highest tiers of risk were dominated by marine mammals (cetaceans and pinnipeds) and birds (diving and non-diving); only the riverine case (Free Flow) included different receptors in the third tier (fish) and the fourth tier (benthic invertebrates). Although this screening analysis provides a preliminary analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis, especially of risk associated with chemical toxicity and accidents such as oil spills or lost gear, will be necessary to further understand high-priority risks. Subject matter expert review of this process and results is required and is

Influence of neuromuscular noise and walking speed on fall risk and dynamic stability in a 3D dynamic walking model.

Science.gov (United States)

Roos, Paulien E; Dingwell, Jonathan B

2013-06-21

Older adults and those with increased fall risk tend to walk slower. They may do this voluntarily to reduce their fall risk. However, both slower and faster walking speeds can predict increased risk of different types of falls. The mechanisms that contribute to fall risk across speeds are not well known. Faster walking requires greater forward propulsion, generated by larger muscle forces. However, greater muscle activation induces increased signal-dependent neuromuscular noise. These speed-related increases in neuromuscular noise may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. Using a 3D dynamic walking model, we systematically varied walking speed without and with physiologically-appropriate neuromuscular noise. We quantified how actual fall risk changed with gait speed, how neuromuscular noise affected speed-related changes in fall risk, and how well orbital and local dynamic stability measures predicted changes in fall risk across speeds. When we included physiologically-appropriate noise to the 'push-off' force in our model, fall risk increased with increasing walking speed. Changes in kinematic variability, orbital, and local dynamic stability did not predict these speed-related changes in fall risk. Thus, the increased neuromuscular variability that results from increased signal-dependent noise that is necessitated by the greater muscular force requirements of faster walking may contribute to the increased fall risk observed at faster walking speeds. The lower fall risk observed at slower speeds supports experimental evidence that slowing down can be an effective strategy to reduce fall risk. This may help explain the slower walking speeds observed in older adults and others. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Biofuel Feedstock Water Footprints Using System Dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, Daniel; Warner, Ethan; Stright, Dana; Macknick, Jordan; Peck, Corey

2016-07-01

-friendly interface for on-demand, spatially explicit, water use scenario analysis for many US agricultural crops. Built-in controls permit users to quickly make modifications to the model assumptions, such as those affecting yield, and to see the implications of those results in real time. BioSpatial H2O's dynamic capabilities and adjustable climate data allow for analyses of water use and management scenarios to inform current and potential future bioenergy policies. The model could also be adapted for scenario analysis of alternative climatic conditions and comparison of multiple crops. The results of such an analysis would help identify risks associated with water use competition among feedstocks in certain regions. Results could also inform research and development efforts that seek to reduce water-related risks of biofuel pathways.

Non-Monotonic Spatial Reasoning with Answer Set Programming Modulo Theories

OpenAIRE

Wałęga, Przemysław Andrzej; Schultz, Carl; Bhatt, Mehul

2016-01-01

The systematic modelling of dynamic spatial systems is a key requirement in a wide range of application areas such as commonsense cognitive robotics, computer-aided architecture design, and dynamic geographic information systems. We present ASPMT(QS), a novel approach and fully-implemented prototype for non-monotonic spatial reasoning -a crucial requirement within dynamic spatial systems- based on Answer Set Programming Modulo Theories (ASPMT). ASPMT(QS) consists of a (qualitative) spatial re...

Review of Preliminary Analysis Techniques for Tension Structures.

Science.gov (United States)

1984-02-01

however,a linear dinamic analysis can be conducted for purposes of preliminary design, relative to the static configuration. It is noted that the amount of...16 Chapter 3. PRELIMINARY DESIGN OF TENSION STRUCTURES . . .. .. .. .... 22 S.3.1 Cable Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .... 23...3.1.1 Singly-Connected Segments. .. .... ... 24 3.1.2 Multiply-Connected Segments . . .. .. .. .. 27 3.1.3 Linearized Dynamics of Cable Systems . . . . 29

Optimization of urban spatial development against flooding and other climate risks, and wider sustainability objectives

OpenAIRE

Caparros-Midwood Daniel; Dawson Richard; Barr Stuart

2016-01-01

A spatial optimization framework has been developed to help urban areas mitigate climate risks such as flooding and to curb resource use and greenhouse gas emissions. Measures required to address these issues often conflict with each other, for example more compact cities typically use less energy for transportation but increase runoff from high intensity rainfall events. Balancing potential trade-offs and maximizing synergies between these risks and vulnerabilities is therefore a multi-dimen...

Suicide Mortality Risk in Kermanshah Province, Iran: A County-level Spatial Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehran Rostami

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Kermanshah province has one of the highest suicide rates in Iran. The aim of this study is to explore spatial variations in the relative risk of suicide across the counties of Kermanshah province. Methods: This is an applied ecological study in which county-level counts of suicide deaths recorded by the forensic medicine organization of Kermanshah province during the period March 21, 2006 to March 20, 2013 have been used. Following a Bayesian approach, Besag, York and Mollie's (BYM model was fitted to the number of suicide deaths of males, females and all persons to make inference about the relative risk of suicide across the counties of the province. Results: Over the study period and based on 95% credible intervals, Kangavar, Harsin and Sonqor counties had significantly lower relative risks of suicide for both males and females, Slas-Babajani, Paveh, Javanrud and Ravansar counties had significantly lower relative risks of suicide only for males and Kermanshah county had a significantly higher relative risk of suicide only for males. The relative risk of suicide for the other counties were not significantly different from the province’s overall risk neither for males nor females. Conclusion: The counties of Kermanshah province can be classified into four categories by the level of relative risk of suicide: low relative risk for both males and females, low relative risk only for males, high relative risk only for males and average relative risk. Findings from this study could be used to specify priority counties for suicide prevention initiatives.

Dynamics of Hippocampal Protein Expression During Long-term Spatial Memory Formation*

Science.gov (United States)

Borovok, Natalia; Nesher, Elimelech; Levin, Yishai; Reichenstein, Michal; Pinhasov, Albert

2016-01-01

Spatial memory depends on the hippocampus, which is particularly vulnerable to aging. This vulnerability has implications for the impairment of navigation capacities in older people, who may show a marked drop in performance of spatial tasks with advancing age. Contemporary understanding of long-term memory formation relies on molecular mechanisms underlying long-term synaptic plasticity. With memory acquisition, activity-dependent changes occurring in synapses initiate multiple signal transduction pathways enhancing protein turnover. This enhancement facilitates de novo synthesis of plasticity related proteins, crucial factors for establishing persistent long-term synaptic plasticity and forming memory engrams. Extensive studies have been performed to elucidate molecular mechanisms of memory traces formation; however, the identity of plasticity related proteins is still evasive. In this study, we investigated protein turnover in mouse hippocampus during long-term spatial memory formation using the reference memory version of radial arm maze (RAM) paradigm. We identified 1592 proteins, which exhibited a complex picture of expression changes during spatial memory formation. Variable linear decomposition reduced significantly data dimensionality and enriched three principal factors responsible for variance of memory-related protein levels at (1) the initial phase of memory acquisition (165 proteins), (2) during the steep learning improvement (148 proteins), and (3) the final phase of the learning curve (123 proteins). Gene ontology and signaling pathways analysis revealed a clear correlation between memory improvement and learning phase-curbed expression profiles of proteins belonging to specific functional categories. We found differential enrichment of (1) neurotrophic factors signaling pathways, proteins regulating synaptic transmission, and actin microfilament during the first day of the learning curve; (2) transcription and translation machinery, protein

Dynamics of Hippocampal Protein Expression During Long-term Spatial Memory Formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Borovok, Natalia; Nesher, Elimelech; Levin, Yishai; Reichenstein, Michal; Pinhasov, Albert; Michaelevski, Izhak

2016-02-01

Spatial memory depends on the hippocampus, which is particularly vulnerable to aging. This vulnerability has implications for the impairment of navigation capacities in older people, who may show a marked drop in performance of spatial tasks with advancing age. Contemporary understanding of long-term memory formation relies on molecular mechanisms underlying long-term synaptic plasticity. With memory acquisition, activity-dependent changes occurring in synapses initiate multiple signal transduction pathways enhancing protein turnover. This enhancement facilitates de novo synthesis of plasticity related proteins, crucial factors for establishing persistent long-term synaptic plasticity and forming memory engrams. Extensive studies have been performed to elucidate molecular mechanisms of memory traces formation; however, the identity of plasticity related proteins is still evasive. In this study, we investigated protein turnover in mouse hippocampus during long-term spatial memory formation using the reference memory version of radial arm maze (RAM) paradigm. We identified 1592 proteins, which exhibited a complex picture of expression changes during spatial memory formation. Variable linear decomposition reduced significantly data dimensionality and enriched three principal factors responsible for variance of memory-related protein levels at (1) the initial phase of memory acquisition (165 proteins), (2) during the steep learning improvement (148 proteins), and (3) the final phase of the learning curve (123 proteins). Gene ontology and signaling pathways analysis revealed a clear correlation between memory improvement and learning phase-curbed expression profiles of proteins belonging to specific functional categories. We found differential enrichment of (1) neurotrophic factors signaling pathways, proteins regulating synaptic transmission, and actin microfilament during the first day of the learning curve; (2) transcription and translation machinery, protein

Modelling temporal and spatial dynamics of benthic fauna in North-West-European shelf seas

Science.gov (United States)

Lessin, Gennadi; Bruggeman, Jorn; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme; Blackford, Jerry

2017-04-01

Benthic zones of shallow shelf seas receive high amounts of organic material. Physical processes such as resuspension, as well as complex transformations mediated by diverse faunal and microbial communities, define fate of this material, which can be returned to the water column, reworked within sediments or ultimately buried. In recent years, numerical models of various complexity and serving different goals have been developed and applied in order to better understand and predict dynamics of benthic processes. ERSEM includes explicit parameterisations of several groups of benthic biota, which makes it particularly applicable for studies of benthic biodiversity, biological interactions within sediments and benthic-pelagic coupling. To assess model skill in reproducing temporal (inter-annual and seasonal) dynamics of major benthic macrofaunal groups, 1D model simulation results were compared with data from the Western Channel Observatory (WCO) benthic survey. The benthic model was forced with organic matter deposition rates inferred from observed phytoplankton abundance and model parameters were subsequently recalibrated. Based on model results and WCO data comparison, deposit-feeders exert clear seasonal variability, while for suspension-feeders inter-annual variability is more pronounced. Spatial distribution of benthic fauna was investigated using results of a full-scale NEMO-ERSEM hindcast simulation of the North-West European Shelf Seas area, covering the period of 1981-2014. Results suggest close relationship between spatial distribution of biomass of benthic faunal functional groups in relation to bathymetry, hydrodynamic conditions and organic matter supply. Our work highlights that it is feasible to construct, implement and validate models that explicitly include functional groups of benthic macrofauna. Moreover, the modelling approach delivers detailed information on benthic biogeochemistry and food-web at spatial and temporal scales that are unavailable

Spatial analysis and mapping of malaria risk in Malawi using point-referenced prevalence of infection data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kazembe Lawrence N

2006-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Current malaria control initiatives aim at reducing malaria burden by half by the year 2010. Effective control requires evidence-based utilisation of resources. Characterizing spatial patterns of risk, through maps, is an important tool to guide control programmes. To this end an analysis was carried out to predict and map malaria risk in Malawi using empirical data with the aim of identifying areas where greatest effort should be focussed. Methods Point-referenced prevalence of infection data for children aged 1–10 years were collected from published and grey literature and geo-referenced. The model-based geostatistical methods were applied to analyze and predict malaria risk in areas where data were not observed. Topographical and climatic covariates were added in the model for risk assessment and improved prediction. A Bayesian approach was used for model fitting and prediction. Results Bivariate models showed a significant association of malaria risk with elevation, annual maximum temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET. However in the prediction model, the spatial distribution of malaria risk was associated with elevation, and marginally with maximum temperature and PET. The resulting map broadly agreed with expert opinion about the variation of risk in the country, and further showed marked variation even at local level. High risk areas were in the low-lying lake shore regions, while low risk was along the highlands in the country. Conclusion The map provided an initial description of the geographic variation of malaria risk in Malawi, and might help in the choice and design of interventions, which is crucial for reducing the burden of malaria in Malawi.

Mature e-Government based on spatial data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvingel, Line; Baaner, Lasse; Schrøder, Lise

2014-01-01

The relation of spatial data and e-Government is important, but not always acknowledged in the development and implementation of e-Government. The implementation of the INSPIRE directive pushed this agenda towards a growing awareness of the role of spatial data and the need for a spatial data...... infrastructure to support e-Government. With technology, policies, data and infrastructure in place, new iterations of this relationship are needed, in order to reach a higher level of maturity. This paper analyses and discusses the need for the differentiated roles of spatial data as an important step towards...... of these data is the wording of the law and the spatial data are just visualisation thereof. Under other circumstances, the spatial data themselves represent the legal status. Compliance between spatial data and the legal administrative framework is necessary, to obtain a mature e-Government. A preliminary test...

Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

2011-05-01

This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

Spatial analysis of environment and population at risk of natural gas fracking in the state of Pennsylvania, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Qingmin

2015-05-15

Hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, has been increasing exponentially across the United States, which holds the largest known shale gas reserves in the world. Studies have found that the high-volume horizontal hydraulic fracturing process (HVHFP) threatens water resources, harms air quality, changes landscapes, and damages ecosystems. However, there is minimal research focusing on the spatial study of environmental and human risks of HVHFP, which is necessary for state and federal governments to administer, regulate, and assess fracking. Integrating GIS and spatial kernel functions, we study the presently operating fracking wells across the state of Pennsylvania (PA), which is the main part of the current hottest Marcellus Shale in US. We geographically process the location data of hydraulic fracturing wells, 2010 census block data, urbanized region data, railway data, local road data, open water data, river data, and wetland data for the state of PA. From this we develop a distance based risk assessment in order to understand the environmental and urban risks. We generate the surface data of fracking well intensity and population intensity by integrating spatial dependence, semivariogram modeling, and a quadratic kernel function. The surface data of population risk generated by the division of fracking well intensity and population intensity provide a novel insight into the local and regional regulation of hydraulic fracturing activities in terms of environmental and health related risks due to the proximity of fracking wells. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián; Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos; de la Riva Fernández, Juan

2017-10-01

This paper explores spatial-temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterization. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial - regional and provincial/NUTS3 - levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974-2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures - Pettitt test, AMOC (at most one change), PELT (pruned exact linear time) and BinSeg (binary segmentation) - at a regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both the regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA) and varimax rotation to trend outputs - mainly Sen's slope values - to summarize overall temporal behaviour and to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann-Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the northwestern provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Similarly, the Hinterland and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1), summer burnt area (PC2), large fires (PC3) and natural fires (PC4).

Spatial analysis of under-5 mortality and potential risk factors in the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System, the Gambia.

Science.gov (United States)

Quattrochi, John; Jasseh, Momodou; Mackenzie, Grant; Castro, Marcia C

2015-07-01

To describe the spatial pattern in under-5 mortality rates in the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS) and to test for associations between under-5 deaths and biodemographic and socio-economic risk factors. Using data on child survival from 2007 to 2011 in the BHDSS, we mapped under-5 mortality by km(2) . We tested for spatial clustering of high or low death rates using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. Associations between child death and a variety of biodemographic and socio-economic factors were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models, and deviance residuals from the best-fitting model were tested for spatial clustering. The overall death rate among children under 5 was 0.0195 deaths per child-year. We found two spatial clusters of high death rates and one spatial cluster of low death rates; children in the two high clusters died at a rate of 0.0264 and 0.0292 deaths per child-year, while in the low cluster, the rate was 0.0144 deaths per child-year. We also found that children born to Fula mothers experienced, on average, a higher hazard of death, whereas children born in the households in the upper two quintiles of asset ownership experienced, on average, a lower hazard of death. After accounting for the spatial distribution of biodemographic and socio-economic characteristics, we found no residual spatial pattern in child mortality risk. This study demonstrates that significant inequality in under-5 death rates can occur within a relatively small area (1100 km(2) ). Risks of under-5 mortality were associated with mother's ethnicity and household wealth. If high mortality clusters persist, then equity concerns may require additional public health efforts in those areas. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Carbon emissions risk map from deforestation in the tropical Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Ometto, J.; Soler, L. S.; Assis, T. D.; Oliveira, P. V.; Aguiar, A. P.

2011-12-01

Assis, Pedro Valle This work aims to estimate the carbon emissions from tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon associated to the risk assessment of future land use change. The emissions are estimated by incorporating temporal deforestation dynamics, accounting for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity in the region, as well secondary forest growth dynamic in abandoned areas. The land cover change model that supported the risk assessment of deforestation, was run based on linear regressions. This method takes into account spatial heterogeneity of deforestation as the spatial variables adopted to fit the final regression model comprise: environmental aspects, economic attractiveness, accessibility and land tenure structure. After fitting a suitable regression models for each land cover category, the potential of each cell to be deforested (25x25km and 5x5 km of resolution) in the near future was used to calculate the risk assessment of land cover change. The carbon emissions model combines high-resolution new forest clear-cut mapping and four alternative sources of spatial information on biomass distribution for different vegetation types. The risk assessment map of CO2 emissions, was obtained by crossing the simulation results of the historical land cover changes to a map of aboveground biomass contained in the remaining forest. This final map represents the risk of CO2 emissions at 25x25km and 5x5 km until 2020, under a scenario of carbon emission reduction target.

The Spatial Distributions and Variations of Water Environmental Risk in Yinma River Basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Di, Hui; Liu, Xingpeng; Zhang, Jiquan; Tong, Zhijun; Ji, Meichen

2018-03-15

Water environmental risk is the probability of the occurrence of events caused by human activities or the interaction of human activities and natural processes that will damage a water environment. This study proposed a water environmental risk index (WERI) model to assess the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin based on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and regional management ability indicators in a water environment. The data for each indicator were gathered from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal variations in water environmental risk using particle swarm optimization and the analytic hierarchy process (PSO-AHP) method. The results showed that the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2015. The risk level of the water environment was high in Changchun, while the risk levels in Yitong and Yongji were low. The research methods provide information to support future decision making by the risk managers in the Yinma River Basin, which is in a high-risk water environment. Moreover, water environment managers could reduce the risks by adjusting the indicators that affect water environmental risks.

A new approach to spatially explicit modelling of forest dynamics: spacing, ageing and neighbourhood competition of mangrove trees

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berger, U.; Hildenbrandt, H.

2000-01-01

This paper presents a new approach to spatially explicit modelling that enables the influence of neighbourhood effects on the dynamics of forests and plant communities to be analysed. We refer to this approach as 'field of neighbourhood' (FON). It combines the 'neighbourhood philosophy' of

Generation of a landslide risk index map for Cuba using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Castellanos Abella, E.A.

2007-01-01

his paper explains the procedure for the generation of a landslide risk index map at national level in Cuba, using a semiquantitative model with ten indicator maps and a cell size of 90× 90 m. The model was designed and implemented using spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques in a GIS system.

Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of High-Resolution Animal Networks: What Can We Learn from Domestic Animals?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shi Chen

Full Text Available Animal social network is the key to understand many ecological and epidemiological processes. We used real-time location system (RTLS to accurately track cattle position, analyze their proximity networks, and tested the hypothesis of temporal stationarity and spatial homogeneity in these networks during different daily time periods and in different areas of the pen. The network structure was analyzed using global network characteristics (network density, subgroup clustering (modularity, triadic property (transitivity, and dyadic interactions (correlation coefficient from a quadratic assignment procedure at hourly level. We demonstrated substantial spatial-temporal heterogeneity in these networks and potential link between indirect animal-environment contact and direct animal-animal contact. But such heterogeneity diminished if data were collected at lower spatial (aggregated at entire pen level or temporal (aggregated at daily level resolution. The network structure (described by the characteristics such as density, modularity, transitivity, etc. also changed substantially at different time and locations. There were certain time (feeding and location (hay that the proximity network structures were more consistent based on the dyadic interaction analysis. These results reveal new insights for animal network structure and spatial-temporal dynamics, provide more accurate descriptions of animal social networks, and allow more accurate modeling of multiple (both direct and indirect disease transmission pathways.

DISPLACE: a dynamic, individual-based model for spatial fishing planning and effort displacement: Integrating underlying fish population models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Miethe, Tanja

or to the alteration of individual fishing patterns. We demonstrate that integrating the spatial activity of vessels and local fish stock abundance dynamics allow for interactions and more realistic predictions of fishermen behaviour, revenues and stock abundance......We previously developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) evaluating the bio-economic efficiency of fishing vessel movements between regions according to the catching and targeting of different species based on the most recent high resolution spatial fishery data. The main purpose...... was to test the effects of alternative fishing effort allocation scenarios related to fuel consumption, energy efficiency (value per litre of fuel), sustainable fish stock harvesting, and profitability of the fisheries. The assumption here was constant underlying resource availability. Now, an advanced...

Dynamic pelvic floor MR imaging at 3 T in patients with clinical signs of urinary incontinence-preliminary results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morakkabati-Spitz, Nuschin; Willinek, Winfried A.; Traeber, Frank; Jaeger, Ursula; Schild, Hans H. [University of Bonn, Department of Radiology, Bonn (Germany); Gieseke, Juergen [University of Bonn, Department of Radiology, Bonn (Germany); Philips Medical Systems, Best (Netherlands); Bastian, Patrick J. [University of Munich, Department of Urology, Munich (Germany); Schmitz, Bettina; Mueller, Stefan C. [University of Bonn, Department of Urology, Bonn (Germany)

2008-11-15

To prospectively evaluate feasibility, image quality and diagnostic accuracy of dynamic MR imaging the pelvic floor at 3.0 T in patients with urinary incontinence and to compare these results with those of MRI performed at 1.5 T. Ten patients with the diagnosis of urinary incontinence (clinical symptoms, clinical examination, pelvic ultrasound) were examined with a dynamic balanced FFE (B-FFE) sequence at 1.5 T and 3.0 T on the same day in a randomized order. Spatial (1.5 x 1.5 x 8 mm) and temporal (0.44 s) resolution at 3.0 T were comparable to the 1.5-T B-FFE sequence. Two radiologists assessed visual signal to noise (three-point scale), artefact level (five-point scale) and final MR diagnoses with regard to pelvic floor weakness (independent analysis). The diagnoses obtained at 1.5-T field strength and the results of the clinical tests served as standard of reference. In addition, ROI-based quantitative measurements were performed to assess different tissue contrasts at both field strengths. Data were analyzed for statistical differences by using the Wilcoxon's matched pairs test and the marginal homogeneity test. Visual signal to noise was rated higher at 3.0 T for all ten studies by both radiologists. With regard to artefact level, there was no statistically significant difference between the studies obtained at 3.0 T as compared to the corresponding 1.5-T studies (marginal homogeneity test: p = 0.18 for reviewer 1 and 0.41 for reviewer 2). Mean artefact level was rated minor to moderate by both reviewers for both field strengths (excellent interobserver agreement with Kendall-W value of 0.973). Except for a higher tissue contrast between fat and urethra at 1.5 T, there were no statistically significant differences between tissue contrast at 1.5 T as compared to 3.0 T (Wilcoxon's test). Final MR diagnoses regarding pelvic floor weakness did not differ between 3.0-T and 1.5-T field strength and correlated well with the results of the clinical tests

Dynamic pelvic floor MR imaging at 3 T in patients with clinical signs of urinary incontinence-preliminary results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morakkabati-Spitz, Nuschin; Willinek, Winfried A.; Traeber, Frank; Jaeger, Ursula; Schild, Hans H.; Gieseke, Juergen; Bastian, Patrick J.; Schmitz, Bettina; Mueller, Stefan C.

2008-01-01

To prospectively evaluate feasibility, image quality and diagnostic accuracy of dynamic MR imaging the pelvic floor at 3.0 T in patients with urinary incontinence and to compare these results with those of MRI performed at 1.5 T. Ten patients with the diagnosis of urinary incontinence (clinical symptoms, clinical examination, pelvic ultrasound) were examined with a dynamic balanced FFE (B-FFE) sequence at 1.5 T and 3.0 T on the same day in a randomized order. Spatial (1.5 x 1.5 x 8 mm) and temporal (0.44 s) resolution at 3.0 T were comparable to the 1.5-T B-FFE sequence. Two radiologists assessed visual signal to noise (three-point scale), artefact level (five-point scale) and final MR diagnoses with regard to pelvic floor weakness (independent analysis). The diagnoses obtained at 1.5-T field strength and the results of the clinical tests served as standard of reference. In addition, ROI-based quantitative measurements were performed to assess different tissue contrasts at both field strengths. Data were analyzed for statistical differences by using the Wilcoxon's matched pairs test and the marginal homogeneity test. Visual signal to noise was rated higher at 3.0 T for all ten studies by both radiologists. With regard to artefact level, there was no statistically significant difference between the studies obtained at 3.0 T as compared to the corresponding 1.5-T studies (marginal homogeneity test: p = 0.18 for reviewer 1 and 0.41 for reviewer 2). Mean artefact level was rated minor to moderate by both reviewers for both field strengths (excellent interobserver agreement with Kendall-W value of 0.973). Except for a higher tissue contrast between fat and urethra at 1.5 T, there were no statistically significant differences between tissue contrast at 1.5 T as compared to 3.0 T (Wilcoxon's test). Final MR diagnoses regarding pelvic floor weakness did not differ between 3.0-T and 1.5-T field strength and correlated well with the results of the clinical tests. Dynamic

Preliminary Geologic/spectral Analysis of LANDSAT-4 Thematic Mapper Data, Wind River/bighorn Basin Area, Wyoming

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, H. R.; Conel, J. E.; Paylor, E. D.

1984-01-01

A LIDQA evaluation for geologic applications of a LANDSAT TM scene covering the Wind River/Bighorn Basin area, Wyoming, is examined. This involves a quantitative assessment of data quality including spatial and spectral characteristics. Analysis is concentrated on the 6 visible, near infrared, and short wavelength infrared bands. Preliminary analysis demonstrates that: (1) principal component images derived from the correlation matrix provide the most useful geologic information. To extract surface spectral reflectance, the TM radiance data must be calibrated. Scatterplots demonstrate that TM data can be calibrated and sensor response is essentially linear. Low instrumental offset and gain settings result in spectral data that do not utilize the full dynamic range of the TM system.