WorldWideScience

Sample records for spatially explicit metapopulations

  1. The emergence of the rescue effect from explicit within and between-patch dynamics in a metapopulation

    KAUST Repository

    Eriksson, Anders

    2014-02-12

    Immigration can rescue local populations from extinction, helping to stabilize a metapopulation. Local population dynamics is important for determining the strength of this rescue effect, but the mechanistic link between local demographic parameters and the rescue effect at the metapopulation level has received very little attention by modellers. We develop an analytical framework that allows us to describe the emergence of the rescue effect from interacting local stochastic dynamics. We show this framework to be applicable to a wide range of spatial scales, providing a powerful and convenient alternative to individual-based models for making predictions concerning the fate of metapopulations. We show that the rescue effect plays an important role in minimizing the increase in local extinction probability associated with high demographic stochasticity, but its role is more limited in the case of high local environmental stochasticity of recruitment or survival. While most models postulate the rescue effect, our framework provides an explicit mechanistic link between local dynamics and the emergence of the rescue effect, and more generally the stability of the whole metapopulation. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  2. The emergence of the rescue effect from explicit within and between-patch dynamics in a metapopulation

    KAUST Repository

    Eriksson, Anders; Elí as-Wolff, Federico; Mehlig, Bernhard; Manica, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Immigration can rescue local populations from extinction, helping to stabilize a metapopulation. Local population dynamics is important for determining the strength of this rescue effect, but the mechanistic link between local demographic parameters and the rescue effect at the metapopulation level has received very little attention by modellers. We develop an analytical framework that allows us to describe the emergence of the rescue effect from interacting local stochastic dynamics. We show this framework to be applicable to a wide range of spatial scales, providing a powerful and convenient alternative to individual-based models for making predictions concerning the fate of metapopulations. We show that the rescue effect plays an important role in minimizing the increase in local extinction probability associated with high demographic stochasticity, but its role is more limited in the case of high local environmental stochasticity of recruitment or survival. While most models postulate the rescue effect, our framework provides an explicit mechanistic link between local dynamics and the emergence of the rescue effect, and more generally the stability of the whole metapopulation. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  3. Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Pellissier, Loïc

    2018-03-01

    Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns.

  4. Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

    2018-01-01

    Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns. PMID:29657753

  5. Dispersal and metapopulation stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaopeng Wang

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Metapopulation dynamics are jointly regulated by local and spatial factors. These factors may affect the dynamics of local populations and of the entire metapopulation differently. Previous studies have shown that dispersal can stabilize local populations; however, as dispersal also tends to increase spatial synchrony, its net effect on metapopulation stability has been controversial. Here we present a simple metapopulation model to study how dispersal, in interaction with other spatial and local processes, affects the temporal variability of metapopulations in a stochastic environment. Our results show that in homogeneous metapopulations, the local stabilizing and spatial synchronizing effects of dispersal cancel each other out, such that dispersal has no effect on metapopulation variability. This result is robust to moderate heterogeneities in local and spatial parameters. When local and spatial dynamics exhibit high heterogeneities, however, dispersal can either stabilize or destabilize metapopulation dynamics through various mechanisms. Our findings have important theoretical and practical implications. We show that dispersal functions as a form of spatial intraspecific mutualism in metapopulation dynamics and that its effect on metapopulation stability is opposite to that of interspecific competition on local community stability. Our results also suggest that conservation corridors should be designed with appreciation of spatial heterogeneities in population dynamics in order to maximize metapopulation stability.

  6. The influence of spatially and temporally varying oceanographic conditions on meroplanktonic metapopulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botsford, L. W.; Moloney, C. L.; Hastings, A.; Largier, J. L.; Powell, T. M.; Higgins, K.; Quinn, J. F.

    We synthesize the results of several modelling studies that address the influence of variability in larval transport and survival on the dynamics of marine metapopulations distributed along a coast. Two important benthic invertebrates in the California Current System (CCS), the Dungeness crab and the red sea urchin, are used as examples of the way in which physical oceanographic conditions can influence stability, synchrony and persistence of meroplanktonic metapopulations. We first explore population dynamics of subpopulations and metapopulations. Even without environmental forcing, isolated local subpopulations with density-dependence can vary on time scales roughly twice the generation time at high adult survival, shifting to annual time scales at low survivals. The high frequency behavior is not seen in models of the Dungeness crab, because of their high adult survival rates. Metapopulations with density-dependent recruitment and deterministic larval dispersal fluctuate in an asynchronous fashion. Along the coast, abundance varies on spatial scales which increase with dispersal distance. Coastwide, synchronous, random environmental variability tends to synchronize these metapopulations. Climate change could cause a long-term increase or decrease in mean larval survival, which in this model leads to greater synchrony or extinction respectively. Spatially managed metapopulations of red sea urchins go extinct when distances between harvest refugia become greater than the scale of larval dispersal. All assessments of population dynamics indicate that metapopulation behavior in general dependes critically on the temporal and spatial nature of larval dispersal, which is largely determined by physical oceanographic conditions. We therfore explore physical influences on larval dispersal patterns. Observed trends in temperature and salinity applied to laboratory-determined responses indicate that natural variability in temperature and salinity can lead to variability in

  7. Spatially explicit modeling in ecology: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon

    2017-01-01

    The use of spatially explicit models (SEMs) in ecology has grown enormously in the past two decades. One major advancement has been that fine-scale details of landscapes, and of spatially dependent biological processes, such as dispersal and invasion, can now be simulated with great precision, due to improvements in computer technology. Many areas of modeling have shifted toward a focus on capturing these fine-scale details, to improve mechanistic understanding of ecosystems. However, spatially implicit models (SIMs) have played a dominant role in ecology, and arguments have been made that SIMs, which account for the effects of space without specifying spatial positions, have an advantage of being simpler and more broadly applicable, perhaps contributing more to understanding. We address this debate by comparing SEMs and SIMs in examples from the past few decades of modeling research. We argue that, although SIMs have been the dominant approach in the incorporation of space in theoretical ecology, SEMs have unique advantages for addressing pragmatic questions concerning species populations or communities in specific places, because local conditions, such as spatial heterogeneities, organism behaviors, and other contingencies, produce dynamics and patterns that usually cannot be incorporated into simpler SIMs. SEMs are also able to describe mechanisms at the local scale that can create amplifying positive feedbacks at that scale, creating emergent patterns at larger scales, and therefore are important to basic ecological theory. We review the use of SEMs at the level of populations, interacting populations, food webs, and ecosystems and argue that SEMs are not only essential in pragmatic issues, but must play a role in the understanding of causal relationships on landscapes.

  8. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  9. CDPOP: A spatially explicit cost distance population genetics program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin L. Landguth; S. A. Cushman

    2010-01-01

    Spatially explicit simulation of gene flow in complex landscapes is essential to explain observed population responses and provide a foundation for landscape genetics. To address this need, we wrote a spatially explicit, individual-based population genetics model (CDPOP). The model implements individual-based population modelling with Mendelian inheritance and k-allele...

  10. Implicit and explicit memory for spatial information in Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessels, R P C; Feijen, J; Postma, A

    2005-01-01

    There is abundant evidence that memory impairment in dementia in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) is related to explicit, conscious forms of memory, whereas implicit, unconscious forms of memory function remain relatively intact or are less severely affected. Only a few studies have been performed on spatial memory function in AD, showing that AD patients' explicit spatial memory is impaired, possibly related to hippocampal dysfunction. However, studies on implicit spatial memory in AD are lacking. The current study set out to investigate implicit and explicit spatial memory in AD patients (n=18) using an ecologically valid computer task, in which participants had to remember the locations of various objects in common rooms. The contribution of implicit and explicit memory functions was estimated by means of the process dissociation procedure. The results show that explicit spatial memory is impaired in AD patients compared with a control group (n=21). However, no group difference was found on implicit spatial function. This indicates that spared implicit memory in AD extends to the spatial domain, while the explicit spatial memory function deteriorates. Clinically, this finding might be relevant, in that an intact implicit memory function might be helpful in overcoming problems in explicit processing. Copyright (c) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  11. A metapopulation of the lizard Anguis fragilis (Squamata: Anguidae on a local scale in Dorset, Great Britain, as indicated by spatial distribution and movement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Haley

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A metapopulation is a group of spatially structured populations, consisting of distinct units (subpopulations that are separated by space or barriers, and connected by dispersal movements. Evidence derived from Gaussian finite-mixture models and dispersal events suggests that slow-worms may exist in a metapopulation. The Gaussian finite-mixture models showed that slow-worms are aggregated into individual subpopulations; the movement data revealed that males are more likely to migrate than females and that they have the ability to travel sufficiently far to bridge subpopulations. Therefore, the evidence supports the metapopulation theory and that slow-worms exist in multiple small subpopulations instead of one large homogenous population.

  12. HABSEED: a Simple Spatially Explicit Meta-Populations Model Using Remote Sensing Derived Habitat Quality Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heumann, B. W.; Guichard, F.; Seaquist, J. W.

    2005-05-01

    The HABSEED model uses remote sensing derived NPP as a surrogate for habitat quality as the driving mechanism for population growth and local seed dispersal. The model has been applied to the Sahel region of Africa. Results show that the functional response of plants to habitat quality alters population distribution. Plants more tolerant of medium quality habitat have greater distributions to the North while plants requiring only the best habitat are limited to the South. For all functional response types, increased seed production results in diminishing returns. Functional response types have been related to life history tradeoffs and r-K strategies based on the results. Results are compared to remote sensing derived vegetation land cover.

  13. Spatially and temporally explicit water footprint accounting

    OpenAIRE

    Mekonnen, Mesfin

    2011-01-01

    The earth’s freshwater resources are subject to increasing pressure in the form of consumptive water use and pollution (Postel, 2000; WWAP, 2003, 2006, 2009). Quantitative assessment of the green, blue and grey water footprint of global production and consumption can be regarded as a key in understanding the pressure put on the global freshwater resources. The overall objective of this thesis is, therefore, to analyse the spatial and temporal pattern of the water footprint of humans from both...

  14. Spatially explicit shallow landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dino Bellugi; William E. Dietrich; Jonathan Stock; Jim McKean; Brian Kazian; Paul Hargrove

    2011-01-01

    Recent advances in downscaling climate model precipitation predictions now yield spatially explicit patterns of rainfall that could be used to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility over large areas. In California, the United States Geological Survey is exploring community emergency response to the possible effects of a very large simulated storm event and to do so...

  15. Evaluating spatially explicit burn probabilities for strategic fire management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Miller; M.-A. Parisien; A. A. Ager; M. A. Finney

    2008-01-01

    Spatially explicit information on the probability of burning is necessary for virtually all strategic fire and fuels management planning activities, including conducting wildland fire risk assessments, optimizing fuel treatments, and prevention planning. Predictive models providing a reliable estimate of the annual likelihood of fire at each point on the landscape have...

  16. Spatially explicit spectral analysis of point clouds and geospatial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buscombe, Daniel D.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing use of spatially explicit analyses of high-resolution spatially distributed data (imagery and point clouds) for the purposes of characterising spatial heterogeneity in geophysical phenomena necessitates the development of custom analytical and computational tools. In recent years, such analyses have become the basis of, for example, automated texture characterisation and segmentation, roughness and grain size calculation, and feature detection and classification, from a variety of data types. In this work, much use has been made of statistical descriptors of localised spatial variations in amplitude variance (roughness), however the horizontal scale (wavelength) and spacing of roughness elements is rarely considered. This is despite the fact that the ratio of characteristic vertical to horizontal scales is not constant and can yield important information about physical scaling relationships. Spectral analysis is a hitherto under-utilised but powerful means to acquire statistical information about relevant amplitude and wavelength scales, simultaneously and with computational efficiency. Further, quantifying spatially distributed data in the frequency domain lends itself to the development of stochastic models for probing the underlying mechanisms which govern the spatial distribution of geological and geophysical phenomena. The software packagePySESA (Python program for Spatially Explicit Spectral Analysis) has been developed for generic analyses of spatially distributed data in both the spatial and frequency domains. Developed predominantly in Python, it accesses libraries written in Cython and C++ for efficiency. It is open source and modular, therefore readily incorporated into, and combined with, other data analysis tools and frameworks with particular utility for supporting research in the fields of geomorphology, geophysics, hydrography, photogrammetry and remote sensing. The analytical and computational structure of the toolbox is

  17. Spatially explicit spectral analysis of point clouds and geospatial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buscombe, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    The increasing use of spatially explicit analyses of high-resolution spatially distributed data (imagery and point clouds) for the purposes of characterising spatial heterogeneity in geophysical phenomena necessitates the development of custom analytical and computational tools. In recent years, such analyses have become the basis of, for example, automated texture characterisation and segmentation, roughness and grain size calculation, and feature detection and classification, from a variety of data types. In this work, much use has been made of statistical descriptors of localised spatial variations in amplitude variance (roughness), however the horizontal scale (wavelength) and spacing of roughness elements is rarely considered. This is despite the fact that the ratio of characteristic vertical to horizontal scales is not constant and can yield important information about physical scaling relationships. Spectral analysis is a hitherto under-utilised but powerful means to acquire statistical information about relevant amplitude and wavelength scales, simultaneously and with computational efficiency. Further, quantifying spatially distributed data in the frequency domain lends itself to the development of stochastic models for probing the underlying mechanisms which govern the spatial distribution of geological and geophysical phenomena. The software package PySESA (Python program for Spatially Explicit Spectral Analysis) has been developed for generic analyses of spatially distributed data in both the spatial and frequency domains. Developed predominantly in Python, it accesses libraries written in Cython and C++ for efficiency. It is open source and modular, therefore readily incorporated into, and combined with, other data analysis tools and frameworks with particular utility for supporting research in the fields of geomorphology, geophysics, hydrography, photogrammetry and remote sensing. The analytical and computational structure of the toolbox is described

  18. Synchronisation and stability in river metapopulation networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeakel, J D; Moore, J W; Guimarães, P R; de Aguiar, M A M

    2014-03-01

    Spatial structure in landscapes impacts population stability. Two linked components of stability have large consequences for persistence: first, statistical stability as the lack of temporal fluctuations; second, synchronisation as an aspect of dynamic stability, which erodes metapopulation rescue effects. Here, we determine the influence of river network structure on the stability of riverine metapopulations. We introduce an approach that converts river networks to metapopulation networks, and analytically show how fluctuation magnitude is influenced by interaction structure. We show that river metapopulation complexity (in terms of branching prevalence) has nonlinear dampening effects on population fluctuations, and can also buffer against synchronisation. We conclude by showing that river transects generally increase synchronisation, while the spatial scale of interaction has nonlinear effects on synchronised dynamics. Our results indicate that this dual stability - conferred by fluctuation and synchronisation dampening - emerges from interaction structure in rivers, and this may strongly influence the persistence of river metapopulations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  19. Spatially and financially explicit population viability analysis of Maculinea alcon in The Netherlands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktoriia Radchuk

    Full Text Available The conservation of species structured in metapopulations involves an important dilemma of resource allocation: should investments be directed at restoring/enlarging habitat patches or increasing connectivity. This is still an open question for Maculinea species despite they are among the best studied and emblematic butterfly species, because none of the population dynamics models developed so far included dispersal.We developed the first spatially and financially explicit Population Viability Analysis model for Maculinea alcon, using field data from The Netherlands. Implemented using the RAMAS/GIS platform, the model incorporated both local (contest density dependence, environmental and demographic stochasticities, and regional population dynamics (dispersal rates between habitat patches. We selected four habitat patch networks, contrasting in several basic features (number of habitat patches, their quality, connectivity, and occupancy rate to test how these features are affecting the ability to enhance population viability of four basic management options, designed to incur the same costs: habitat enlargement, habitat quality improvement, creation of new stepping stone habitat patches, and reintroduction of captive-reared butterflies. The PVA model was validated by the close match between its predictions and independent field observations on the patch occupancy pattern. The four patch networks differed in their sensitivity to model parameters, as well as in the ranking of management options. Overall, the best cost-effective option was enlargement of existing habitat patches, followed by either habitat quality improvement or creation of stepping stones depending on the network features. Reintroduction was predicted to generally be inefficient, except in one specific patch network.Our results underline the importance of spatial and regional aspects (dispersal and connectivity in determining the impact of conservation actions, even for a species

  20. Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    Spatially explicit epidemiological models are a crucial tool for the prediction of epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. In addition they can provide valuable information about epidemiological processes and allow for the identification of environmental drivers of the disease spread. Most epidemiological models rely on environmental data as inputs. They can either be measured in the field by the means of conventional instruments or using remote sensing techniques to measure suitable proxies of the variables of interest. The later benefit from several advantages over conventional methods, including data availability, which can be an issue especially in developing, and spatial as well as temporal resolution of the data, which is particularly crucial for spatially explicit models. Here we present the case study of a spatially explicit, semi-mechanistic model applied to recurring cholera outbreaks in the Lake Kivu area (Democratic Republic of the Congo). The model describes the cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers. Human mobility and its effect on the disease spread is also taken into account. Several model configurations are tested on a data set of reported cases. The best models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via cross validation. The best performing model accounts for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility.

  1. Metapopulation responses to patch connectivity and quality are masked by successional habitat dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Jenny A; Moilanen, Atte; Thomas, Chris D

    2009-06-01

    Many species have to track changes in the spatial distribution of suitable habitat from generation to generation. Understanding the dynamics of such species will likely require spatially explicit models, and patch-based metapopulation models are potentially appropriate. However, relatively little attention has been paid to developing metapopulation models that include habitat dynamics, and very little to testing the predictions of these models. We tested three predictions from theory about the differences between dynamic habitat metapopulations and their static counterparts using long-term survey data from two metapopulations of the butterfly Plebejus argus. As predicted, we showed first that the metapopulation inhabiting dynamic habitat had a lower level of habitat occupancy, which could not be accounted for by other differences between the metapopulations. Secondly, we found that patch occupancy did not significantly increase with increasing patch connectivity in dynamic habitat, whereas there was a strong positive connectivity-occupancy relationship in static habitat. Thirdly, we found no significant relationship between patch occupancy and patch quality in dynamic habitat, whereas there was a strong, positive quality-occupancy relationship in static habitat. Modeling confirmed that the differences in mean patch occupancy and connectivity-occupancy slope could arise without changing the species' metapopulation parameters-importantly, without changing the dependence of colonization upon connectivity. We found that, for a range of landscape scenarios, successional simulations always produced a lower connectivity-occupancy slope than comparable simulations with static patches, whether compared like-for-like or controlling for mean occupancy. We conclude that landscape-scale studies may often underestimate the importance of connectivity for species occurrence and persistence because habitat turnover can obscure the connectivity-occupancy relationship in commonly

  2. Spatially explicit models, generalized reproduction numbers and the prediction of patterns of waterborne disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldo, A.; Gatto, M.; Mari, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2012-12-01

    still lacking. Here, we show that the requirement that all the local reproduction numbers R0 be larger than unity is neither necessary nor sufficient for outbreaks to occur when local settlements are connected by networks of primary and secondary infection mechanisms. To determine onset conditions, we derive general analytical expressions for a reproduction matrix G0 explicitly accounting for spatial distributions of human settlements and pathogen transmission via hydrological and human mobility networks. At disease onset, a generalized reproduction number Λ0 (the dominant eigenvalue of G0) must be larger than unity. We also show that geographical outbreak patterns in complex environments are linked to the dominant eigenvector and to spectral properties of G0. Tests against data and computations for the 2010 Haiti and 2000 KwaZulu-Natal cholera outbreaks, as well as against computations for metapopulation networks, demonstrate that eigenvectors of G0 provide a synthetic and effective tool for predicting the disease course in space and time. Networked connectivity models, describing the interplay between hydrology, epidemiology and social behavior sustaining human mobility, thus prove to be key tools for emergency management of waterborne infections.

  3. SEARCH: Spatially Explicit Animal Response to Composition of Habitat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauli, Benjamin P; McCann, Nicholas P; Zollner, Patrick A; Cummings, Robert; Gilbert, Jonathan H; Gustafson, Eric J

    2013-01-01

    Complex decisions dramatically affect animal dispersal and space use. Dispersing individuals respond to a combination of fine-scale environmental stimuli and internal attributes. Individual-based modeling offers a valuable approach for the investigation of such interactions because it combines the heterogeneity of animal behaviors with spatial detail. Most individual-based models (IBMs), however, vastly oversimplify animal behavior and such behavioral minimalism diminishes the value of these models. We present program SEARCH (Spatially Explicit Animal Response to Composition of Habitat), a spatially explicit, individual-based, population model of animal dispersal through realistic landscapes. SEARCH uses values in Geographic Information System (GIS) maps to apply rules that animals follow during dispersal, thus allowing virtual animals to respond to fine-scale features of the landscape and maintain a detailed memory of areas sensed during movement. SEARCH also incorporates temporally dynamic landscapes so that the environment to which virtual animals respond can change during the course of a simulation. Animals in SEARCH are behaviorally dynamic and able to respond to stimuli based upon their individual experiences. Therefore, SEARCH is able to model behavioral traits of dispersing animals at fine scales and with many dynamic aspects. Such added complexity allows investigation of unique ecological questions. To illustrate SEARCH's capabilities, we simulated case studies using three mammals. We examined the impact of seasonally variable food resources on the weight distribution of dispersing raccoons (Procyon lotor), the effect of temporally dynamic mortality pressure in combination with various levels of behavioral responsiveness in eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus), and the impact of behavioral plasticity and home range selection on disperser mortality and weight change in virtual American martens (Martes americana). These simulations highlight the relevance of

  4. Increasing connectivity between metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Paige E; Muths, Erin; Hossack, Blake R; Sigafus, Brent H; Chandler, Richard B

    2018-05-01

    Metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology aim to understand how spatial structure influences ecological processes, yet these disciplines address the problem using fundamentally different modeling approaches. Metapopulation models describe how the spatial distribution of patches affects colonization and extinction, but often do not account for the heterogeneity in the landscape between patches. Models in landscape ecology use detailed descriptions of landscape structure, but often without considering colonization and extinction dynamics. We present a novel spatially explicit modeling framework for narrowing the divide between these disciplines to advance understanding of the effects of landscape structure on metapopulation dynamics. Unlike previous efforts, this framework allows for statistical inference on landscape resistance to colonization using empirical data. We demonstrate the approach using 11 yr of data on a threatened amphibian in a desert ecosystem. Occupancy data for Lithobates chiricahuensis (Chiricahua leopard frog) were collected on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), Arizona, USA from 2007 to 2017 following a reintroduction in 2003. Results indicated that colonization dynamics were influenced by both patch characteristics and landscape structure. Landscape resistance increased with increasing elevation and distance to the nearest streambed. Colonization rate was also influenced by patch quality, with semi-permanent and permanent ponds contributing substantially more to the colonization of neighboring ponds relative to intermittent ponds. Ponds that only hold water intermittently also had the highest extinction rate. Our modeling framework can be widely applied to understand metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes, particularly in systems in which the environment between habitat patches influences the colonization process. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  5. Spatially explicit shallow landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellugi, Dino; Dietrich, William E.; Stock, Jonathan D.; McKean, Jim; Kazian, Brian; Hargrove, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Recent advances in downscaling climate model precipitation predictions now yield spatially explicit patterns of rainfall that could be used to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility over large areas. In California, the United States Geological Survey is exploring community emergency response to the possible effects of a very large simulated storm event and to do so it has generated downscaled precipitation maps for the storm. To predict the corresponding pattern of shallow landslide susceptibility across the state, we have used the model Shalstab (a coupled steady state runoff and infinite slope stability model) which susceptibility spatially explicit estimates of relative potential instability. Such slope stability models that include the effects of subsurface runoff on potentially destabilizing pore pressure evolution require water routing and hence the definition of upslope drainage area to each potential cell. To calculate drainage area efficiently over a large area we developed a parallel framework to scale-up Shalstab and specifically introduce a new efficient parallel drainage area algorithm which produces seamless results. The single seamless shallow landslide susceptibility map for all of California was accomplished in a short run time, and indicates that much larger areas can be efficiently modelled. As landslide maps generally over predict the extent of instability for any given storm. Local empirical data on the fraction of predicted unstable cells that failed for observed rainfall intensity can be used to specify the likely extent of hazard for a given storm. This suggests that campaigns to collect local precipitation data and detailed shallow landslide location maps after major storms could be used to calibrate models and improve their use in hazard assessment for individual storms.

  6. CDMetaPOP: An individual-based, eco-evolutionary model for spatially explicit simulation of landscape demogenetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landguth, Erin L; Bearlin, Andrew; Day, Casey; Dunham, Jason B.

    2016-01-01

    1. Combining landscape demographic and genetics models offers powerful methods for addressing questions for eco-evolutionary applications.2. Using two illustrative examples, we present Cost–Distance Meta-POPulation, a program to simulate changes in neutral and/or selection-driven genotypes through time as a function of individual-based movement, complex spatial population dynamics, and multiple and changing landscape drivers.3. Cost–Distance Meta-POPulation provides a novel tool for questions in landscape genetics by incorporating population viability analysis, while linking directly to conservation applications.

  7. Spatial working memory interferes with explicit, but not probabilistic cuing of spatial attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, Bo-Yeong; Jiang, Yuhong V.

    2014-01-01

    Recent empirical and theoretical work has depicted a close relationship between visual attention and visual working memory. For example, rehearsal in spatial working memory depends on spatial attention, whereas adding a secondary spatial working memory task impairs attentional deployment in visual search. These findings have led to the proposal that working memory is attention directed toward internal representations. Here we show that the close relationship between these two constructs is limited to some but not all forms of spatial attention. In five experiments, participants held color arrays, dot locations, or a sequence of dots in working memory. During the memory retention interval they performed a T-among-L visual search task. Crucially, the probable target location was cued either implicitly through location probability learning, or explicitly with a central arrow or verbal instruction. Our results showed that whereas imposing a visual working memory load diminished the effectiveness of explicit cuing, it did not interfere with probability cuing. We conclude that spatial working memory shares similar mechanisms with explicit, goal-driven attention but is dissociated from implicitly learned attention. PMID:25401460

  8. A spatially explicit model of functional connectivity for the endangered Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii in a patchy landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunlin Li

    Full Text Available Habitat fragmentation, associated with human population expansion, impedes dispersal, reduces gene flow and aggravates inbreeding in species on the brink of extinction. Both scientific and conservation communities increasingly realize that maintaining and restoring landscape connectivity is of vital importance in biodiversity conservation. Prior to any conservation initiatives, it is helpful to present conservation practitioners with a spatially explicit model of functional connectivity for the target species or landscape.Using Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii as a model of endangered ungulate species in highly fragmented landscape, we present a model providing spatially explicit information to inform the long-term preservation of well-connected metapopulations. We employed a Geographic Information System (GIS and expert-literature method to create a habitat suitability map, to identify potential habitats and to delineate a functional connectivity network (least-cost movement corridors and paths for the gazelle. Results indicated that there were limited suitable habitats for the gazelle, mainly found to the north and northwest of the Qinghai Lake where four of five potential habitat patches were identified. Fifteen pairs of least-cost corridors and paths were mapped connecting eleven extant populations and two neighboring potential patches. The least-cost paths ranged from 0.2 km to 26.8 km in length (averaging 12.4 km and were all longer than corresponding Euclidean distances.The model outputs were validated and supported by the latest findings in landscape genetics of the species, and may provide impetus for connectivity conservation programs. Dispersal barriers were examined and appropriate mitigation strategies were suggested. This study provides conservation practitioners with thorough and visualized information to reserve the landscape connectivity for Przewalski's gazelle. In a general sense, we proposed a heuristic framework

  9. Spatially explicit and stochastic simulation of forest landscape fire disturbance and succession

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

    1999-01-01

    Understanding disturbance and recovery of forest landscapes is a challenge because of complex interactions over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Landscape simulation models offer an approach to studying such systems at broad scales. Fire can be simulated spatially using mechanistic or stochastic approaches. We describe the fire module in a spatially explicit,...

  10. Scaling-up spatially-explicit ecological models using graphics processors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koppel, Johan van de; Gupta, Rohit; Vuik, Cornelis

    2011-01-01

    How the properties of ecosystems relate to spatial scale is a prominent topic in current ecosystem research. Despite this, spatially explicit models typically include only a limited range of spatial scales, mostly because of computing limitations. Here, we describe the use of graphics processors to

  11. Divide and conquer? Infection dynamics in metapopulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jesse, M.

    2012-01-01

    Persistence of infectious agents in populations is an important issue in epidemiology. It is often assumed that spatial fragmentation of a population of hosts, in a so-called metapopulation, increases the probability of persistence of the infectious agents, and that increased movement of hosts

  12. Spatially explicit animal response to composition of habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin P. Pauli; Nicholas P. McCann; Patrick A. Zollner; Robert Cummings; Jonathan H. Gilbert; Eric J. Gustafson

    2013-01-01

    Complex decisions dramatically affect animal dispersal and space use. Dispersing individuals respond to a combination of fine-scale environmental stimuli and internal attributes. Individual-based modeling offers a valuable approach for the investigation of such interactions because it combines the heterogeneity of animal behaviors with spatial detail. Most individual-...

  13. Latin hypercube sampling and geostatistical modeling of spatial uncertainty in a spatially explicit forest landscape model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chonggang Xu; Hong S. He; Yuanman Hu; Yu Chang; Xiuzhen Li; Rencang Bu

    2005-01-01

    Geostatistical stochastic simulation is always combined with Monte Carlo method to quantify the uncertainty in spatial model simulations. However, due to the relatively long running time of spatially explicit forest models as a result of their complexity, it is always infeasible to generate hundreds or thousands of Monte Carlo simulations. Thus, it is of great...

  14. Spatially explicit data: stewardship and ethical challenges in science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartter, Joel; Ryan, Sadie J; Mackenzie, Catrina A; Parker, John N; Strasser, Carly A

    2013-09-01

    Scholarly communication is at an unprecedented turning point created in part by the increasing saliency of data stewardship and data sharing. Formal data management plans represent a new emphasis in research, enabling access to data at higher volumes and more quickly, and the potential for replication and augmentation of existing research. Data sharing has recently transformed the practice, scope, content, and applicability of research in several disciplines, in particular in relation to spatially specific data. This lends exciting potentiality, but the most effective ways in which to implement such changes, particularly for disciplines involving human subjects and other sensitive information, demand consideration. Data management plans, stewardship, and sharing, impart distinctive technical, sociological, and ethical challenges that remain to be adequately identified and remedied. Here, we consider these and propose potential solutions for their amelioration.

  15. Patterns in the spatial distribution of Peruvian anchovy ( Engraulis ringens) revealed by spatially explicit fishing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, Sophie; Díaz, Erich; Lengaigne, Matthieu

    2008-10-01

    Peruvian anchovy ( Engraulis ringens) stock abundance is tightly driven by the high and unpredictable variability of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem. Management of the fishery therefore cannot rely on mid- or long-term management policy alone but needs to be adaptive at relatively short time scales. Regular acoustic surveys are performed on the stock at intervals of 2 to 4 times a year, but there is a need for more time continuous monitoring indicators to ensure that management can respond at suitable time scales. Existing literature suggests that spatially explicit data on the location of fishing activities could be used as a proxy for target stock distribution. Spatially explicit commercial fishing data could therefore guide adaptive management decisions at shorter time scales than is possible through scientific stock surveys. In this study we therefore aim to (1) estimate the position of fishing operations for the entire fleet of Peruvian anchovy purse-seiners using the Peruvian satellite vessel monitoring system (VMS), and (2) quantify the extent to which the distribution of purse-seine sets describes anchovy distribution. To estimate fishing set positions from vessel tracks derived from VMS data we developed a methodology based on artificial neural networks (ANN) trained on a sample of fishing trips with known fishing set positions (exact fishing positions are known for approximately 1.5% of the fleet from an at-sea observer program). The ANN correctly identified 83% of the real fishing sets and largely outperformed comparative linear models. This network is then used to forecast fishing operations for those trips where no observers were onboard. To quantify the extent to which fishing set distribution was correlated to stock distribution we compared three metrics describing features of the distributions (the mean distance to the coast, the total area of distribution, and a clustering index) for concomitant acoustic survey observations and fishing set positions

  16. Spatially Explicit Analysis of Water Footprints in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Barrett

    2010-12-01

    that this is mainly explained by differences in the average income level across the UK. We argue that the information provided by our model at different spatial scales can be very useful for informing integrated water supply and demand side management.

  17. Metapopulation extinction risk: dispersal's duplicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Kevin

    2009-09-01

    Metapopulation extinction risk is the probability that all local populations are simultaneously extinct during a fixed time frame. Dispersal may reduce a metapopulation's extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate. By contrast, dispersal may raise a metapopulation's extinction risk by reducing its average population density. Which effect prevails is controlled by habitat fragmentation. Dispersal in mildly fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate without causing any appreciable drop in its average population density. By contrast, dispersal in severely fragmented habitat raises a metapopulation's extinction risk because the rise in its average per-capita growth rate is more than offset by the decline in its average population density. The metapopulation model used here shows several other interesting phenomena. Dispersal in sufficiently fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk to that of a constant environment. Dispersal between habitat fragments reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk insofar as local environments are asynchronous. Grouped dispersal raises the effective habitat fragmentation level. Dispersal search barriers raise metapopulation extinction risk. Nonuniform dispersal may reduce the effective fraction of suitable habitat fragments below the extinction threshold. Nonuniform dispersal may make demographic stochasticity a more potent metapopulation extinction force than environmental stochasticity.

  18. Implicit and Explicit Gender Beliefs in Spatial Ability: Stronger Stereotyping in Boys than Girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vander Heyden, Karin M; van Atteveldt, Nienke M; Huizinga, Mariette; Jolles, Jelle

    2016-01-01

    Sex differences in spatial ability are a seriously debated topic, given the importance of spatial ability for success in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and girls' underrepresentation in these domains. In the current study we investigated the presence of stereotypic gender beliefs on spatial ability (i.e., "spatial ability is for boys") in 10- and 12-year-old children. We used both an explicit measure (i.e., a self-report questionnaire) and an implicit measure (i.e., a child IAT). Results of the explicit measure showed that both sexes associated spatial ability with boys, with boys holding more male stereotyped attitudes than girls. On the implicit measure, boys associated spatial ability with boys, while girls were gender-neutral. In addition, we examined the effects of gender beliefs on spatial performance, by experimentally activating gender beliefs within a pretest-instruction-posttest design. We compared three types of instruction: boys are better, girls are better, and no sex differences. No effects of these gender belief instructions were found on children's spatial test performance (i.e., mental rotation and paper folding). The finding that children of this age already have stereotypic beliefs about the spatial capacities of their own sex is important, as these beliefs may influence children's choices for spatial leisure activities and educational tracks in the STEM domain.

  19. Implicit and Explicit Gender Beliefs in Spatial Ability: Stronger Stereotyping in Boys than Girls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Vander Heyden

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Sex differences in spatial ability are a seriously debated topic, given the importance of spatial ability for success in the fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM and girls’ underrepresentation in these domains. In the current study we investigated the presence of stereotypic gender beliefs on spatial ability (i.e., ‘spatial ability is for boys’ in 10- and 12-year-old children. We used both an explicit measure (i.e., a self-report questionnaire and an implicit measure (i.e., a child IAT. Results of the explicit measure showed that both sexes associated spatial ability with boys, with boys holding more male stereotyped attitudes than girls. On the implicit measure, boys associated spatial ability with boys, while girls were gender-neutral. In addition, we examined the effects of gender beliefs on spatial performance, by experimentally activating gender beliefs within a pretest – instruction – posttest design. We compared three types of instruction: boys are better, girls are better, and no sex differences. No effects of these gender belief instructions were found on children’s spatial test performance (i.e., mental rotation and paper folding. The finding that children of this age already have stereotypic beliefs about the spatial capacities of their own sex is important, as these beliefs may influence children’s choices for spatial leisure activities and educational tracks in the STEM domain.

  20. Augmentation of Explicit Spatial Configurations by Knowledge-Based Inference on Geometric Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Tappan

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available A spatial configuration of a rudimentary, static, realworld scene with known objects (animals and properties (positions and orientations contains a wealth of syntactic and semantic spatial information that can contribute to a computational understanding far beyond what its quantitative details alone convey. This work presents an approach that (1 quantitatively represents what a configuration explicitly states, (2 integrates this information with implicit, commonsense background knowledge of its objects and properties, (3 infers additional, contextually appropriate, commonsense spatial information from and about their interrelationships, and (4 augments the original representation with this combined information. A semantic network represents explicit, quantitative information in a configuration. An inheritance-based knowledge base of relevant concepts supplies implicit, qualitative background knowledge to support semantic interpretation. Together, these structures provide a simple, nondeductive, constraint-based, geometric logical formalism to infer substantial implicit knowledge for intrinsic and deictic frames of spatial reference.

  1. DEFINING RECOVERY GOALS AND STRATEGIES FOR ENDANGERED SPECIES USING SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT POPULATION MODELS

    Science.gov (United States)

    We used a spatially explicit population model of wolves (Canis lupus) to propose a framework for defining rangewide recovery priorities and finer-scale strategies for regional reintroductions. The model predicts that Yellowstone and central Idaho, where wolves have recently been ...

  2. A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metzger, M.J.; Schröter, D.; Leemans, R.; Cramer, W.

    2008-01-01

    Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant

  3. A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acosta, L.; Klein, R.J.T.; Reidsma, P.; Metzger, M.J.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Leemans, R.

    2013-01-01

    Traditional impact models combine exposure in the form of scenarios and sensitivity in the form of parameters, providing potential impacts of global change as model outputs. However, adaptive capacity is rarely addressed in these models. This paper presents the first spatially explicit

  4. The assessment of mangrove biomass and carbon in West Africa: a spatially explicit analytical framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenwu Tang; Wenpeng Feng; Meijuan Jia; Jiyang Shi; Huifang Zuo; Carl C. Trettin

    2015-01-01

    Mangrove forests are highly productive and have large carbon sinks while also providing numerous goods and ecosystem services. However, effective management and conservation of the mangrove forests are often dependent on spatially explicit assessments of the resource. Given the remote and highly dispersed nature of mangroves, estimation of biomass and carbon...

  5. Spatially-Explicit Bayesian Information Entropy Metrics for Calibrating Landscape Transformation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostas Alexandridis

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Assessing spatial model performance often presents challenges related to the choice and suitability of traditional statistical methods in capturing the true validity and dynamics of the predicted outcomes. The stochastic nature of many of our contemporary spatial models of land use change necessitate the testing and development of new and innovative methodologies in statistical spatial assessment. In many cases, spatial model performance depends critically on the spatially-explicit prior distributions, characteristics, availability and prevalence of the variables and factors under study. This study explores the statistical spatial characteristics of statistical model assessment of modeling land use change dynamics in a seven-county study area in South-Eastern Wisconsin during the historical period of 1963–1990. The artificial neural network-based Land Transformation Model (LTM predictions are used to compare simulated with historical land use transformations in urban/suburban landscapes. We introduce a range of Bayesian information entropy statistical spatial metrics for assessing the model performance across multiple simulation testing runs. Bayesian entropic estimates of model performance are compared against information-theoretic stochastic entropy estimates and theoretically-derived accuracy assessments. We argue for the critical role of informational uncertainty across different scales of spatial resolution in informing spatial landscape model assessment. Our analysis reveals how incorporation of spatial and landscape information asymmetry estimates can improve our stochastic assessments of spatial model predictions. Finally our study shows how spatially-explicit entropic classification accuracy estimates can work closely with dynamic modeling methodologies in improving our scientific understanding of landscape change as a complex adaptive system and process.

  6. Spatial Working Memory Interferes with Explicit, but Not Probabilistic Cuing of Spatial Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, Bo-Yeong; Jiang, Yuhong V.

    2015-01-01

    Recent empirical and theoretical work has depicted a close relationship between visual attention and visual working memory. For example, rehearsal in spatial working memory depends on spatial attention, whereas adding a secondary spatial working memory task impairs attentional deployment in visual search. These findings have led to the proposal…

  7. Spatially and Financially Explicit Population Viability Analysis of Maculinea alcon in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Radchuk, V.; Wallis de Vries, M.F.; Schtickzelle, N.

    2012-01-01

    Background The conservation of species structured in metapopulations involves an important dilemma of resource allocation: should investments be directed at restoring/enlarging habitat patches or increasing connectivity. This is still an open question for Maculinea species despite they are among the

  8. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular

  9. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongoh Valerie

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector

  10. Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Femke Broekhuis

    Full Text Available Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

  11. Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

    2016-01-01

    Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

  12. [A spatially explicit analysis of traffic accidents involving pedestrians and cyclists in Berlin].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakes, Tobia

    2017-12-01

    In many German cities and counties, sustainable mobility concepts that strengthen pedestrian and cyclist traffic are promoted. From the perspectives of urban development, traffic planning and public healthcare, a spatially differentiated analysis of traffic accident data is decisive. 1) The identification of spatial and temporal patterns of the distribution of accidents involving cyclists and pedestrians, 2) the identification of hotspots and exploration of possible underlying causes and 3) the critical discussion of benefits and challenges of the results and the derivation of conclusions. Spatio-temporal distributions of data from accident statistics in Berlin involving pedestrians and cyclists from 2011 to 2015 were analysed with geographic information systems (GIS). While the total number of accidents remains relatively stable for pedestrian and cyclist accidents, the spatial distribution analysis shows, however, that there are significant spatial clusters (hotspots) of traffic accidents with a strong concentration in the inner city area. In a critical discussion, the benefits of geographic concepts are identified, such as spatially explicit health data (in this case traffic accident data), the importance of the integration of other data sources for the evaluation of the health impact of areas (traffic accident statistics of the police), and the possibilities and limitations of spatial-temporal data analysis (spatial point-density analyses) for the derivation of decision-supported recommendations and for the evaluation of policy measures of health prevention and of health-relevant urban development.

  13. The need for spatially explicit quantification of benefits in invasive-species management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R; Adams, Vanessa M; Hermoso, Virgilio

    2018-04-01

    Worldwide, invasive species are a leading driver of environmental change across terrestrial, marine, and freshwater environments and cost billions of dollars annually in ecological damages and economic losses. Resources limit invasive-species control, and planning processes are needed to identify cost-effective solutions. Thus, studies are increasingly considering spatially variable natural and socioeconomic assets (e.g., species persistence, recreational fishing) when planning the allocation of actions for invasive-species management. There is a need to improve understanding of how such assets are considered in invasive-species management. We reviewed over 1600 studies focused on management of invasive species, including flora and fauna. Eighty-four of these studies were included in our final analysis because they focused on the prioritization of actions for invasive species management. Forty-five percent (n = 38) of these studies were based on spatial optimization methods, and 35% (n = 13) accounted for spatially variable assets. Across all 84 optimization studies considered, 27% (n = 23) explicitly accounted for spatially variable assets. Based on our findings, we further explored the potential costs and benefits to invasive species management when spatially variable assets are explicitly considered or not. To include spatially variable assets in decision-making processes that guide invasive-species management there is a need to quantify environmental responses to invasive species and to enhance understanding of potential impacts of invasive species on different natural or socioeconomic assets. We suggest these gaps could be filled by systematic reviews, quantifying invasive species impacts on native species at different periods, and broadening sources and enhancing sharing of knowledge. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  14. Predicting continental-scale patterns of bird species richness with spatially explicit models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rahbek, Carsten; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Colwell, Robert K

    2007-01-01

    the extraordinary diversity of avian species in the montane tropics, the most species-rich region on Earth. Our findings imply that correlative climatic models substantially underestimate the importance of historical factors and small-scale niche-driven assembly processes in shaping contemporary species-richness......The causes of global variation in species richness have been debated for nearly two centuries with no clear resolution in sight. Competing hypotheses have typically been evaluated with correlative models that do not explicitly incorporate the mechanisms responsible for biotic diversity gradients....... Here, we employ a fundamentally different approach that uses spatially explicit Monte Carlo models of the placement of cohesive geographical ranges in an environmentally heterogeneous landscape. These models predict species richness of endemic South American birds (2248 species) measured...

  15. Population viability and reintroduction strategies: a spatially explicit landscape-level approach

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Münzbergová, Zuzana; Mildén, M.; Ehrlén, J.; Herben, Tomáš

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 4 (2005), s. 1377-1386 ISSN 1051-0761 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GD206/03/H137; GA ČR(CZ) GA206/02/0590 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : extinction threshold * habitat fragmentation * metapopulation capacity Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 3.804, year: 2005

  16. Optimizing metapopulation sustainability through a checkerboard strategy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yossi Ben Zion

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The persistence of a spatially structured population is determined by the rate of dispersal among habitat patches. If the local dynamic at the subpopulation level is extinction-prone, the system viability is maximal at intermediate connectivity where recolonization is allowed, but full synchronization that enables correlated extinction is forbidden. Here we developed and used an algorithm for agent-based simulations in order to study the persistence of a stochastic metapopulation. The effect of noise is shown to be dramatic, and the dynamics of the spatial population differs substantially from the predictions of deterministic models. This has been validated for the stochastic versions of the logistic map, the Ricker map and the Nicholson-Bailey host-parasitoid system. To analyze the possibility of extinction, previous studies were focused on the attractiveness (Lyapunov exponent of stable solutions and the structure of their basin of attraction (dependence on initial population size. Our results suggest that these features are of secondary importance in the presence of stochasticity. Instead, optimal sustainability is achieved when decoherence is maximal. Individual-based simulations of metapopulations of different sizes, dimensions and noise types, show that the system's lifetime peaks when it displays checkerboard spatial patterns. This conclusion is supported by the results of a recently published Drosophila experiment. The checkerboard strategy provides a technique for the manipulation of migration rates (e.g., by constructing corridors in order to affect the persistence of a metapopulation. It may be used in order to minimize the risk of extinction of an endangered species, or to maximize the efficiency of an eradication campaign.

  17. A metapopulation approach to African lion (Panthera leo) conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolrenry, Stephanie; Stenglein, Jennifer; Hazzah, Leela; Lutz, R Scott; Frank, Laurence

    2014-01-01

    Due to anthropogenic pressures, African lion (Panthera leo) populations in Kenya and Tanzania are increasingly limited to fragmented populations. Lions living on isolated habitat patches exist in a matrix of less-preferred habitat. A framework of habitat patches within a less-suitable matrix describes a metapopulation. Metapopulation analysis can provide insight into the dynamics of each population patch in reference to the system as a whole, and these analyses often guide conservation planning. We present the first metapopulation analysis of African lions. We use a spatially-realistic model to investigate how sex-biased dispersal abilities of lions affect patch occupancy and also examine whether human densities surrounding the remaining lion populations affect the metapopulation as a whole. Our results indicate that male lion dispersal ability strongly contributes to population connectivity while the lesser dispersal ability of females could be a limiting factor. When populations go extinct, recolonization will not occur if distances between patches exceed female dispersal ability or if females are not able to survive moving across the matrix. This has profound implications for the overall metapopulation; the female models showed an intrinsic extinction rate from five-fold to a hundred-fold higher than the male models. Patch isolation is a consideration for even the largest lion populations. As lion populations continue to decline and with local extinctions occurring, female dispersal ability and the proximity to the nearest lion population are serious considerations for the recolonization of individual populations and for broader conservation efforts.

  18. A metapopulation approach to African lion (Panthera leo conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Dolrenry

    Full Text Available Due to anthropogenic pressures, African lion (Panthera leo populations in Kenya and Tanzania are increasingly limited to fragmented populations. Lions living on isolated habitat patches exist in a matrix of less-preferred habitat. A framework of habitat patches within a less-suitable matrix describes a metapopulation. Metapopulation analysis can provide insight into the dynamics of each population patch in reference to the system as a whole, and these analyses often guide conservation planning. We present the first metapopulation analysis of African lions. We use a spatially-realistic model to investigate how sex-biased dispersal abilities of lions affect patch occupancy and also examine whether human densities surrounding the remaining lion populations affect the metapopulation as a whole. Our results indicate that male lion dispersal ability strongly contributes to population connectivity while the lesser dispersal ability of females could be a limiting factor. When populations go extinct, recolonization will not occur if distances between patches exceed female dispersal ability or if females are not able to survive moving across the matrix. This has profound implications for the overall metapopulation; the female models showed an intrinsic extinction rate from five-fold to a hundred-fold higher than the male models. Patch isolation is a consideration for even the largest lion populations. As lion populations continue to decline and with local extinctions occurring, female dispersal ability and the proximity to the nearest lion population are serious considerations for the recolonization of individual populations and for broader conservation efforts.

  19. Interference-free acquisition of overlapping sequences in explicit spatial memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggert, Thomas; Drever, Johannes; Straube, Andreas

    2014-04-01

    Some types of human sequential memory, e.g. the acquisition of a new composition by a trained musician, seem to be very efficient in extending the length of a memorized sequence and in flexible reuse of known subsequences in a newly acquired sequential context. This implies that interference between known and newly acquired subsequences can be avoided even when learning a sequence which is a partial mutation of a known sequence. It is known that established motor sequences do not have such flexibility. Using learning of deferred imitation, the current study investigates the flexibility of explicit spatial memory by quantifying the interferences between successively acquired, partially overlapping sequences. After learning a spatial sequence on day 1, this sequence was progressively modified on day 2. On day 3, a retention test was performed with both the initial and the modified sequence. The results show that subjects performed very well on day 1 and day 2. No spatial interference between changed and unchanged targets was observed during the stepwise progressive modification of the reproduced sequence. Surprisingly, subjects performed well on both sequences on day 3. Comparison with a control experiment without intermediate mutation training showed that the initial training on day 1 did not proactively interfere with the retention of the modified sequence on day 3. Vice versa, the mutation training on day 2 did not interfere retroactively with the retention of the original sequence as tested on day 3. The results underline the flexibility in acquiring explicit spatial memory. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Analyzing Variability in Landscape Nutrient Loading Using Spatially-Explicit Maps in the Great Lakes Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Q. F.; Kendall, A. D.; Martin, S. L.; Whitenack, H. D.; Roush, J. A.; Hannah, B. A.; Hyndman, D. W.

    2017-12-01

    Excessive loading of nitrogen and phosphorous to the landscape has caused biologically and economically damaging eutrophication and harmful algal blooms in the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) and across the world. We mapped source-specific loads of nitrogen and phosphorous to the landscape using broadly available data across the GLB. SENSMap (Spatially Explicit Nutrient Source Map) is a 30m resolution snapshot of nutrient loads ca. 2010. We use these maps to study variable nutrient loading and provide this information to watershed managers through NOAA's GLB Tipping Points Planner. SENSMap individually maps nutrient point sources and six non-point sources: 1) atmospheric deposition, 2) septic tanks, 3) non-agricultural chemical fertilizer, 4) agricultural chemical fertilizer, 5) manure, and 6) nitrogen fixation from legumes. To model source-specific loads at high resolution, SENSMap synthesizes a wide range of remotely sensed, surveyed, and tabular data. Using these spatially explicit nutrient loading maps, we can better calibrate local land use-based water quality models and provide insight to watershed managers on how to focus nutrient reduction strategies. Here we examine differences in dominant nutrient sources across the GLB, and how those sources vary by land use. SENSMap's high resolution, source-specific approach offers a different lens to understand nutrient loading than traditional semi-distributed or land use based models.

  1. [Application of spatially explicit landscape model in soil loss study in Huzhong area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chonggang; Hu, Yuanman; Chang, Yu; Li, Xiuzhen; Bu, Renchang; He, Hongshi; Leng, Wenfang

    2004-10-01

    Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) has been widely used to estimate the average annual soil loss. In most of the previous work on soil loss evaluation on forestland, cover management factor was calculated from the static forest landscape. The advent of spatially explicit forest landscape model in the last decade, which explicitly simulates the forest succession dynamics under natural and anthropogenic disturbances (fire, wind, harvest and so on) on heterogeneous landscape, makes it possible to take into consideration the change of forest cover, and to dynamically simulate the soil loss in different year (e.g. 10 years and 20 years after current year). In this study, we linked a spatially explicit landscape model (LANDIS) with USLE to simulate the soil loss dynamics under two scenarios: fire and no harvest, fire and harvest. We also simulated the soil loss with no fire and no harvest as a control. The results showed that soil loss varied periodically with simulation year, and the amplitude of change was the lowest under the control scenario and the highest under the fire and no harvest scenario. The effect of harvest on soil loss could not be easily identified on the map; however, the cumulative effect of harvest on soil loss was larger than that of fire. Decreasing the harvest area and the percent of bare soil increased by harvest could significantly reduce soil loss, but had no significant effects on the dynamic of soil loss. Although harvest increased the annual soil loss, it tended to decrease the variability of soil loss between different simulation years.

  2. Assessment of flood susceptible areas using spatially explicit, probabilistic multi-criteria decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zhongqian; Zhang, Hua; Yi, Shanzhen; Xiao, Yangfan

    2018-03-01

    GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support flood risk assessment. However, conventional GIS-MCDA methods fail to adequately represent spatial variability and are accompanied with considerable uncertainty. It is, thus, important to incorporate spatial variability and uncertainty into GIS-based decision analysis procedures. This research develops a spatially explicit, probabilistic GIS-MCDA approach for the delineation of potentially flood susceptible areas. The approach integrates the probabilistic and the local ordered weighted averaging (OWA) methods via Monte Carlo simulation, to take into account the uncertainty related to criteria weights, spatial heterogeneity of preferences and the risk attitude of the analyst. The approach is applied to a pilot study for the Gucheng County, central China, heavily affected by the hazardous 2012 flood. A GIS database of six geomorphological and hydrometeorological factors for the evaluation of susceptibility was created. Moreover, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed to investigate the robustness of the model. The results indicate that the ensemble method improves the robustness of the model outcomes with respect to variation in criteria weights and identifies which criteria weights are most responsible for the variability of model outcomes. Therefore, the proposed approach is an improvement over the conventional deterministic method and can provides a more rational, objective and unbiased tool for flood susceptibility evaluation.

  3. Spatially explicit inference for open populations: estimating demographic parameters from camera-trap studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Beth; Reppucci, Juan; Lucherini, Mauro; Royle, J Andrew

    2010-11-01

    We develop a hierarchical capture-recapture model for demographically open populations when auxiliary spatial information about location of capture is obtained. Such spatial capture-recapture data arise from studies based on camera trapping, DNA sampling, and other situations in which a spatial array of devices records encounters of unique individuals. We integrate an individual-based formulation of a Jolly-Seber type model with recently developed spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate density and demographic parameters for survival and recruitment. We adopt a Bayesian framework for inference under this model using the method of data augmentation which is implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The model was motivated by a camera trapping study of Pampas cats Leopardus colocolo from Argentina, which we present as an illustration of the model in this paper. We provide estimates of density and the first quantitative assessment of vital rates for the Pampas cat in the High Andes. The precision of these estimates is poor due likely to the sparse data set. Unlike conventional inference methods which usually rely on asymptotic arguments, Bayesian inferences are valid in arbitrary sample sizes, and thus the method is ideal for the study of rare or endangered species for which small data sets are typical.

  4. Mapping of soil organic carbon stocks for spatially explicit assessments of climate change mitigation potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vågen, Tor-Gunnar; Winowiecki, Leigh A

    2013-01-01

    Current methods for assessing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are generally not well suited for understanding variations in SOC stocks in landscapes. This is due to the tedious and time-consuming nature of the sampling methods most commonly used to collect bulk density cores, which limits repeatability across large areas, particularly where information is needed on the spatial dynamics of SOC stocks at scales relevant to management and for spatially explicit targeting of climate change mitigation options. In the current study, approaches were explored for (i) field-based estimates of SOC stocks and (ii) mapping of SOC stocks at moderate to high resolution on the basis of data from four widely contrasting ecosystems in East Africa. Estimated SOC stocks for 0–30 cm depth varied both within and between sites, with site averages ranging from 2 to 8 kg m −2 . The differences in SOC stocks were determined in part by rainfall, but more importantly by sand content. Results also indicate that managing soil erosion is a key strategy for reducing SOC loss and hence in mitigation of climate change in these landscapes. Further, maps were developed on the basis of satellite image reflectance data with multiple R-squared values of 0.65 for the independent validation data set, showing variations in SOC stocks across these landscapes. These maps allow for spatially explicit targeting of potential climate change mitigation efforts through soil carbon sequestration, which is one option for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Further, the maps can be used to monitor the impacts of such mitigation efforts over time. (letter)

  5. Metapopulation models for historical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakeley, John

    2004-04-01

    The genealogical process for a sample from a metapopulation, in which local populations are connected by migration and can undergo extinction and subsequent recolonization, is shown to have a relatively simple structure in the limit as the number of populations in the metapopulation approaches infinity. The result, which is an approximation to the ancestral behaviour of samples from a metapopulation with a large number of populations, is the same as that previously described for other metapopulation models, namely that the genealogical process is closely related to Kingman's unstructured coalescent. The present work considers a more general class of models that includes two kinds of extinction and recolonization, and the possibility that gamete production precedes extinction. In addition, following other recent work, this result for a metapopulation divided into many populations is shown to hold both for finite population sizes and in the usual diffusion limit, which assumes that population sizes are large. Examples illustrate when the usual diffusion limit is appropriate and when it is not. Some shortcomings and extensions of the model are considered, and the relevance of such models to understanding human history is discussed.

  6. Creating a spatially-explicit index: a method for assessing the global wildfire-water risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    The wildfire-water risk (WWR) has been defined as the potential for wildfires to adversely affect water resources that are important for downstream ecosystems and human water needs for adequate water quantity and quality, therefore compromising the security of their water supply. While tools and methods are numerous for watershed-scale risk analysis, the development of a toolbox for the large-scale evaluation of the wildfire risk to water security has only started recently. In order to provide managers and policy-makers with an adequate tool, we implemented a method for the spatial analysis of the global WWR based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. As this approach heavily relies on data, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. When appropriate, we applied a hydrological routing function to our indicators in order to simulate downstream accumulation of potentially harmful material. Each indicator was then assigned a DPSIR category. We collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the WWR. A thorough sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to understand the relationship between the final risk values and the spatial pattern of each category used during the indexation. For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, to get a sense of regional DPSIR specificities. This rather simple method does not necessitate the use of complex physical models and provides a scalable and efficient tool

  7. Spatially Explicit Estimation of Optimal Light Use Efficiency for Improved Satellite Data Driven Ecosystem Productivity Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madani, N.; Kimball, J. S.; Running, S. W.

    2014-12-01

    Remote sensing based light use efficiency (LUE) models, including the MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) MOD17 algorithm are commonly used for regional estimation and monitoring of vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and photosynthetic carbon (CO2) uptake. A common model assumption is that plants in a biome matrix operate at their photosynthetic capacity under optimal climatic conditions. A prescribed biome maximum light use efficiency parameter defines the maximum photosynthetic carbon conversion rate under prevailing climate conditions and is a large source of model uncertainty. Here, we used tower (FLUXNET) eddy covariance measurement based carbon flux data for estimating optimal LUE (LUEopt) over a North American domain. LUEopt was first estimated using tower observed daily carbon fluxes, meteorology and satellite (MODIS) observed fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR). LUEopt was then spatially interpolated over the domain using empirical models derived from independent geospatial data including global plant traits, surface soil moisture, terrain aspect, land cover type and percent tree cover. The derived LUEopt maps were then used as primary inputs to the MOD17 LUE algorithm for regional GPP estimation; these results were evaluated against tower observations and alternate MOD17 GPP estimates determined using Biome-specific LUEopt constants. Estimated LUEopt shows large spatial variability within and among different land cover classes indicated from a sparse North American tower network. Leaf nitrogen content and soil moisture are two important factors explaining LUEopt spatial variability. GPP estimated from spatially explicit LUEopt inputs shows significantly improved model accuracy against independent tower observations (R2 = 0.76; Mean RMSE plant trait information can explain spatial heterogeneity in LUEopt, leading to improved GPP estimates from satellite based LUE models.

  8. sGD: software for estimating spatially explicit indices of genetic diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirk, A J; Cushman, S A

    2011-09-01

    Anthropogenic landscape changes have greatly reduced the population size, range and migration rates of many terrestrial species. The small local effective population size of remnant populations favours loss of genetic diversity leading to reduced fitness and adaptive potential, and thus ultimately greater extinction risk. Accurately quantifying genetic diversity is therefore crucial to assessing the viability of small populations. Diversity indices are typically calculated from the multilocus genotypes of all individuals sampled within discretely defined habitat patches or larger regional extents. Importantly, discrete population approaches do not capture the clinal nature of populations genetically isolated by distance or landscape resistance. Here, we introduce spatial Genetic Diversity (sGD), a new spatially explicit tool to estimate genetic diversity based on grouping individuals into potentially overlapping genetic neighbourhoods that match the population structure, whether discrete or clinal. We compared the estimates and patterns of genetic diversity using patch or regional sampling and sGD on both simulated and empirical populations. When the population did not meet the assumptions of an island model, we found that patch and regional sampling generally overestimated local heterozygosity, inbreeding and allelic diversity. Moreover, sGD revealed fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in genetic diversity that was not evident with patch or regional sampling. These advantages should provide a more robust means to evaluate the potential for genetic factors to influence the viability of clinal populations and guide appropriate conservation plans. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  9. A spatially explicit risk assessment approach: Cetaceans and marine traffic in the Pelagos Sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Grazia Pennino

    Full Text Available Spatially explicit risk assessment is an essential component of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP, which provides a comprehensive framework for managing multiple uses of the marine environment, minimizing environmental impacts and conflicts among users. In this study, we assessed the risk of the exposure to high intensity vessel traffic areas for the three most abundant cetacean species (Stenella coeruleoalba, Tursiops truncatus and Balaenoptera physalus in the southern area of the Pelagos Sanctuary, which is the only pelagic Marine Protected Area (MPA for marine mammals in the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, we modeled the occurrence of the three cetacean species as a function of habitat variables in June by using hierarchical Bayesian spatial-temporal models. Similarly, we modelled the marine traffic intensity in order to find high risk areas and estimated the potential conflict due to the overlap with the cetacean home ranges. Results identified two main hot-spots of high intensity marine traffic in the area, which partially overlap with the area of presence of the studied species. Our findings emphasize the need for nationally relevant and transboundary planning and management measures for these marine species.

  10. Spatially explicit models for inference about density in unmarked or partially marked populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture–recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Furthermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified excludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be applied in studies of unmarked or partially marked populations. The data required for our model are spatially referenced counts made on one or more sample occasions at a collection of closely spaced sample units such that individuals can be encountered at multiple locations. Our approach includes a spatial point process for the animal activity centers and uses the spatial correlation in counts as information about the number and location of the activity centers. Camera-traps, hair snares, track plates, sound recordings, and even point counts can yield spatially correlated count data, and thus our model is widely applicable. A simulation study demonstrated that while the posterior mean exhibits frequentist bias on the order of 5–10% in small samples, the posterior mode is an accurate point estimator as long as adequate spatial correlation is present. Marking a subset of the population substantially increases posterior precision and is recommended whenever possible. We applied our model to avian point count data collected on an unmarked population of the northern parula (Parula americana) and obtained a density estimate (posterior mode) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.19–1.64) birds/ha. Our paper challenges sampling and analytical conventions in ecology by demonstrating

  11. Development and Validation of Spatially Explicit Habitat Models for Cavity-nesting Birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall A., Jr. Schultz; Thomas C., Jr. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracey S. Frescino

    2005-01-01

    The ability of USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) generated spatial products to increase the predictive accuracy of spatially explicit, macroscale habitat models was examined for nest-site selection by cavity-nesting birds in Fishlake National Forest, Utah. One FIA-derived variable (percent basal area of aspen trees) was significant in the habitat...

  12. Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

  13. A spatially explicit model for an Allee effect: why wolves recolonize so slowly in Greater Yellowstone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurford, Amy; Hebblewhite, Mark; Lewis, Mark A

    2006-11-01

    A reduced probability of finding mates at low densities is a frequently hypothesized mechanism for a component Allee effect. At low densities dispersers are less likely to find mates and establish new breeding units. However, many mathematical models for an Allee effect do not make a distinction between breeding group establishment and subsequent population growth. Our objective is to derive a spatially explicit mathematical model, where dispersers have a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities, and parameterize the model for wolf recolonization in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In this model, only the probability of establishing new breeding units is influenced by the reduced probability of finding mates at low densities. We analytically and numerically solve the model to determine the effect of a decreased probability in finding mates at low densities on population spread rate and density. Our results suggest that a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities may slow recolonization rate.

  14. A Hybrid Interpolation Method for Geometric Nonlinear Spatial Beam Elements with Explicit Nodal Force

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiqing Fang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on geometrically exact beam theory, a hybrid interpolation is proposed for geometric nonlinear spatial Euler-Bernoulli beam elements. First, the Hermitian interpolation of the beam centerline was used for calculating nodal curvatures for two ends. Then, internal curvatures of the beam were interpolated with a second interpolation. At this point, C1 continuity was satisfied and nodal strain measures could be consistently derived from nodal displacement and rotation parameters. The explicit expression of nodal force without integration, as a function of global parameters, was founded by using the hybrid interpolation. Furthermore, the proposed beam element can be degenerated into linear beam element under the condition of small deformation. Objectivity of strain measures and patch tests are also discussed. Finally, four numerical examples are discussed to prove the validity and effectivity of the proposed beam element.

  15. A Risk Assessment Example for Soil Invertebrates Using Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reed, Melissa; Alvarez, Tania; Chelinho, Sonia

    2016-01-01

    Current risk assessment methods for measuring the toxicity of plant protection products (PPPs) on soil invertebrates use standardized laboratory conditions to determine acute effects on mortality and sublethal effects on reproduction. If an unacceptable risk is identified at the lower tier...... population models for ubiquitous soil invertebrates (collembolans and earthworms) as refinement options in current risk assessment. Both are spatially explicit agent-based models (ABMs), incorporating individual and landscape variability. The models were used to provide refined risk assessments for different...... application scenarios of a hypothetical pesticide applied to potato crops (full-field spray onto the soil surface [termed “overall”], in-furrow, and soil-incorporated pesticide applications). In the refined risk assessment, the population models suggest that soil invertebrate populations would likely recover...

  16. Ecosystem accounts define explicit and spatial trade-offs for managing natural resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, Heather; Vardon, Michael; Stein, John A; Stein, Janet L; Lindenmayer, David

    2017-11-01

    Decisions about natural resource management are frequently complex and vexed, often leading to public policy compromises. Discord between environmental and economic metrics creates problems in assessing trade-offs between different current or potential resource uses. Ecosystem accounts, which quantify ecosystems and their benefits for human well-being consistent with national economic accounts, provide exciting opportunities to contribute significantly to the policy process. We advanced the application of ecosystem accounts in a regional case study by explicitly and spatially linking impacts of human and natural activities on ecosystem assets and services to their associated industries. This demonstrated contributions of ecosystems beyond the traditional national accounts. Our results revealed that native forests would provide greater benefits from their ecosystem services of carbon sequestration, water yield, habitat provisioning and recreational amenity if harvesting for timber production ceased, thus allowing forests to continue growing to older ages.

  17. Spatially explicit population estimates for black bears based on cluster sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humm, J.; McCown, J. Walter; Scheick, B.K.; Clark, Joseph D.

    2017-01-01

    We estimated abundance and density of the 5 major black bear (Ursus americanus) subpopulations (i.e., Eglin, Apalachicola, Osceola, Ocala-St. Johns, Big Cypress) in Florida, USA with spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture (SCR) by extracting DNA from hair samples collected at barbed-wire hair sampling sites. We employed a clustered sampling configuration with sampling sites arranged in 3 × 3 clusters spaced 2 km apart within each cluster and cluster centers spaced 16 km apart (center to center). We surveyed all 5 subpopulations encompassing 38,960 km2 during 2014 and 2015. Several landscape variables, most associated with forest cover, helped refine density estimates for the 5 subpopulations we sampled. Detection probabilities were affected by site-specific behavioral responses coupled with individual capture heterogeneity associated with sex. Model-averaged bear population estimates ranged from 120 (95% CI = 59–276) bears or a mean 0.025 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.011–0.44) for the Eglin subpopulation to 1,198 bears (95% CI = 949–1,537) or 0.127 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.101–0.163) for the Ocala-St. Johns subpopulation. The total population estimate for our 5 study areas was 3,916 bears (95% CI = 2,914–5,451). The clustered sampling method coupled with information on land cover was efficient and allowed us to estimate abundance across extensive areas that would not have been possible otherwise. Clustered sampling combined with spatially explicit capture-recapture methods has the potential to provide rigorous population estimates for a wide array of species that are extensive and heterogeneous in their distribution.

  18. Spatially Explicit Assessment of Agricultural Water Equilibrium in the Korean Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chul-Hee Lim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In agriculture, balancing water use and retention is an issue dealt with in most regions and for many crops. In this study, we suggest agricultural water equilibrium (AWE as a new concept that can facilitate a spatially explicit management of agricultural water. This concept is based on the principle of supply and demand of agricultural water, where the virtual water content of crops (VWC can be defined as the demand, and cropland water budget (CWB as the supply. For assessing the AWE of the Korean Peninsula, we quantified the CWB based on the hydrological cycle and the VWC of rice, a key crop in the Peninsula. Five factors, namely crop yield, growing season evapotranspiration, annual evapotranspiration, runoff, and annual precipitation, were used to assess the AWE, of which the first four were estimated using the spatially explicit large-scale crop model, Geographical Information System (GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC. The CWB and VWC were calculated for a period of three decades, and the AWE was computed by deducting the VWC from the CWB. Our results show a latitudinal difference across the Korean Peninsula. On analyzing the AWE of the major river basins, we found most basins in North Korea showed very low values inferring unsustainable overconsumption of water. The latitudinal difference in AWE is a reflectance of the latitudinal changes in the VWC and CWB. This can be explained by decoupling the demand and supply of agricultural water. Although the AWE values presented in this study were not absolute, the values were sufficient to explain the latitudinal change, and the demand and supply of agricultural water, and establish the usefulness of the indicator.

  19. Spatially Explicit Modeling Reveals Cephalopod Distributions Match Contrasting Trophic Pathways in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Puerta

    Full Text Available Populations of the same species can experience different responses to the environment throughout their distributional range as a result of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in habitat conditions. This highlights the importance of understanding the processes governing species distribution at local scales. However, research on species distribution often averages environmental covariates across large geographic areas, missing variability in population-environment interactions within geographically distinct regions. We used spatially explicit models to identify interactions between species and environmental, including chlorophyll a (Chla and sea surface temperature (SST, and trophic (prey density conditions, along with processes governing the distribution of two cephalopods with contrasting life-histories (octopus and squid across the western Mediterranean Sea. This approach is relevant for cephalopods, since their population dynamics are especially sensitive to variations in habitat conditions and rarely stable in abundance and location. The regional distributions of the two cephalopod species matched two different trophic pathways present in the western Mediterranean Sea, associated with the Gulf of Lion upwelling and the Ebro river discharges respectively. The effects of the studied environmental and trophic conditions were spatially variant in both species, with usually stronger effects along their distributional boundaries. We identify areas where prey availability limited the abundance of cephalopod populations as well as contrasting effects of temperature in the warmest regions. Despite distributional patterns matching productive areas, a general negative effect of Chla on cephalopod densities suggests that competition pressure is common in the study area. Additionally, results highlight the importance of trophic interactions, beyond other common environmental factors, in shaping the distribution of cephalopod populations. Our study presents

  20. Spatially explicit analysis of metal transfer to biota: influence of soil contamination and landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clémentine Fritsch

    Full Text Available Concepts and developments for a new field in ecotoxicology, referred to as "landscape ecotoxicology," were proposed in the 1990s; however, to date, few studies have been developed in this emergent field. In fact, there is a strong interest in developing this area, both for renewing the concepts and tools used in ecotoxicology as well as for responding to practical issues, such as risk assessment. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial heterogeneity of metal bioaccumulation in animals in order to identify the role of spatially explicit factors, such as landscape as well as total and extractable metal concentrations in soils. Over a smelter-impacted area, we studied the accumulation of trace metals (TMs: Cd, Pb and Zn in invertebrates (the grove snail Cepaea sp and the glass snail Oxychilus draparnaudi and vertebrates (the bank vole Myodes glareolus and the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula. Total and CaCl(2-extractable concentrations of TMs were measured in soils from woody patches where the animals were captured. TM concentrations in animals exhibited a high spatial heterogeneity. They increased with soil pollution and were better explained by total rather than CaCl(2-extractable TM concentrations, except in Cepaea sp. TM levels in animals and their variations along the pollution gradient were modulated by the landscape, and this influence was species and metal specific. Median soil metal concentrations (predicted by universal kriging were calculated in buffers of increasing size and were related to bioaccumulation. The spatial scale at which TM concentrations in animals and soils showed the strongest correlations varied between metals, species and landscapes. The potential underlying mechanisms of landscape influence (community functioning, behaviour, etc. are discussed. Present results highlight the need for the further development of landscape ecotoxicology and multi-scale approaches, which would enhance our

  1. Predicting Fish Growth Potential and Identifying Water Quality Constraints: A Spatially-Explicit Bioenergetics Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budy, Phaedra; Baker, Matthew; Dahle, Samuel K.

    2011-10-01

    Anthropogenic impairment of water bodies represents a global environmental concern, yet few attempts have successfully linked fish performance to thermal habitat suitability and fewer have distinguished co-varying water quality constraints. We interfaced fish bioenergetics, field measurements, and Thermal Remote Imaging to generate a spatially-explicit, high-resolution surface of fish growth potential, and next employed a structured hypothesis to detect relationships among measures of fish performance and co-varying water quality constraints. Our thermal surface of fish performance captured the amount and spatial-temporal arrangement of thermally-suitable habitat for three focal species in an extremely heterogeneous reservoir, but interpretation of this pattern was initially confounded by seasonal covariation of water residence time and water quality. Subsequent path analysis revealed that in terms of seasonal patterns in growth potential, catfish and walleye responded to temperature, positively and negatively, respectively; crappie and walleye responded to eutrophy (negatively). At the high eutrophy levels observed in this system, some desired fishes appear to suffer from excessive cultural eutrophication within the context of elevated temperatures whereas others appear to be largely unaffected or even enhanced. Our overall findings do not lead to the conclusion that this system is degraded by pollution; however, they do highlight the need to use a sensitive focal species in the process of determining allowable nutrient loading and as integrators of habitat suitability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We provide an integrated approach useful for quantifying fish growth potential and identifying water quality constraints on fish performance at spatial scales appropriate for whole-system management.

  2. Spatially Explicit Assessment of Ecosystem Resilience: An Approach to Adapt to Climate Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiming Yan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystem resilience plays a key role in maintaining a steady flow of ecosystem services and enables quick and flexible responses to climate changes, and maintaining or restoring the ecosystem resilience of forests is a necessary societal adaptation to climate change; however, there is a great lack of spatially explicit ecosystem resilience assessments. Drawing on principles of the ecosystem resilience highlighted in the literature, we built on the theory of dissipative structures to develop a conceptual model of the ecosystem resilience of forests. A hierarchical indicator system was designed with the influencing factors of the forest ecosystem resilience, including the stand conditions and the ecological memory, which were further disaggregated into specific indicators. Furthermore, indicator weights were determined with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and the coefficient of variation method. Based on the remote sensing data and forest inventory data and so forth, the resilience index of forests was calculated. The result suggests that there is significant spatial heterogeneity of the ecosystem resilience of forests, indicating it is feasible to generate large-scale ecosystem resilience maps with this assessment model, and the results can provide a scientific basis for the conservation of forests, which is of great significance to the climate change mitigation.

  3. Spatially explicit rangeland erosion monitoring using high-resolution digital aerial imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillan, Jeffrey K.; Karl, Jason W.; Barger, Nichole N.; Elaksher, Ahmed; Duniway, Michael C.

    2016-01-01

    Nearly all of the ecosystem services supported by rangelands, including production of livestock forage, carbon sequestration, and provisioning of clean water, are negatively impacted by soil erosion. Accordingly, monitoring the severity, spatial extent, and rate of soil erosion is essential for long-term sustainable management. Traditional field-based methods of monitoring erosion (sediment traps, erosion pins, and bridges) can be labor intensive and therefore are generally limited in spatial intensity and/or extent. There is a growing effort to monitor natural resources at broad scales, which is driving the need for new soil erosion monitoring tools. One remote-sensing technique that can be used to monitor soil movement is a time series of digital elevation models (DEMs) created using aerial photogrammetry methods. By geographically coregistering the DEMs and subtracting one surface from the other, an estimate of soil elevation change can be created. Such analysis enables spatially explicit quantification and visualization of net soil movement including erosion, deposition, and redistribution. We constructed DEMs (12-cm ground sampling distance) on the basis of aerial photography immediately before and 1 year after a vegetation removal treatment on a 31-ha Piñon-Juniper woodland in southeastern Utah to evaluate the use of aerial photography in detecting soil surface change. On average, we were able to detect surface elevation change of ± 8−9cm and greater, which was sufficient for the large amount of soil movement exhibited on the study area. Detecting more subtle soil erosion could be achieved using the same technique with higher-resolution imagery from lower-flying aircraft such as unmanned aerial vehicles. DEM differencing and process-focused field methods provided complementary information and a more complete assessment of soil loss and movement than any single technique alone. Photogrammetric DEM differencing could be used as a technique to

  4. A web-tool to find spatially explicit climate-smart solutions for the sector agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verzandvoort, Simone; Kuikman, Peter; Walvoort, Dennis

    2017-04-01

    Europe faces the challenge to produce more food and more biomass for the bio-economy, to adapt its agricultural sector to negative consequences of climate change, and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) solutions and technologies improve agriculture's productivity and provide economic growth and stability, increase resilience, and help to reduce GHG emissions from agricultural activities. The Climate Smart Agriculture Booster (CSAb) (http://csabooster.climate-kic.org/) is a Flagship Program under Climate-KIC, aiming to facilitate the adoption of CSA solutions and technologies in the European agro-food sector. This adoption requires spatially explicit, contextual information on farming activities and risks and opportunities related to climate change in regions across Europe. Other spatial information supporting adoption includes Information on where successful implementations were already done, on where CSA would profit from enabling policy conditions, and where markets or business opportunities for selling or purchasing technology and knowledge are located or emerging. The Spatial Solution Finder is a web-based spatial tool aiming to help agri-food companies (supply and processing), authorities or agricultural organisations find CSA solutions and technologies that fit local farmers and regions, and to demonstrate examples of successful implementations as well as expected impact at the farm and regional level. The tool is based on state of the art (geo)datasets of environmental and socio-economic conditions (partly open access, partly derived from previous research) and open source web-technology. The philosophy of the tool is that combining existing datasets with contextual information on the region of interest with personalized information entered by the user provides a suitable basis for offering a basket of options for CSA solutions and technologies. Solutions and technologies are recommended to the user based on

  5. Remote Sensing of Vegetation Nitrogen Content for Spatially Explicit Carbon and Water Cycle Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y. L.; Miller, J. R.; Chen, J. M.

    2009-05-01

    Foliage nitrogen concentration is a determinant of photosynthetic capacity of leaves, thereby an important input to ecological models for estimating terrestrial carbon and water budgets. Recently, spectrally continuous airborne hyperspectral remote sensing imagery has proven to be useful for retrieving an important related parameter, total chlorophyll content at both leaf and canopy scales. Thus remote sensing of vegetation biochemical parameters has promising potential for improving the prediction of global carbon and water balance patterns. In this research, we explored the feasibility of estimating leaf nitrogen content using hyperspectral remote sensing data for spatially explicit estimation of carbon and water budgets. Multi-year measurements of leaf biochemical contents of seven major boreal forest species were carried out in northeastern Ontario, Canada. The variation of leaf chlorophyll and nitrogen content in response to various growth conditions, and the relationship between them,were investigated. Despite differences in plant type (deciduous and evergreen), leaf age, stand growth conditions and developmental stages, leaf nitrogen content was strongly correlated with leaf chlorophyll content on a mass basis during the active growing season (r2=0.78). With this general correlation, leaf nitrogen content was estimated from leaf chlorophyll content at an accuracy of RMSE=2.2 mg/g, equivalent to 20.5% of the average measured leaf nitrogen content. Based on this correlation and a hyperspectral remote sensing algorithm for leaf chlorophyll content retrieval, the spatial variation of leaf nitrogen content was inferred from the airborne hyperspectral remote sensing imagery acquired by Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI). A process-based ecological model Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) was used for estimating terrestrial carbon and water budgets. In contrast to the scenario with leaf nitrogen content assigned as a constant value without

  6. Global Research on Artificial Intelligence from 1990–2014: Spatially-Explicit Bibliometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiqiang Niu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we conducted the evaluation of artificial intelligence research from 1990–2014 by using bibliometric analysis. We introduced spatial analysis and social network analysis as geographic information retrieval methods for spatially-explicit bibliometric analysis. This study is based on the analysis of data obtained from database of the Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-Expanded and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S. Our results revealed scientific outputs, subject categories and main journals, author productivity and geographic distribution, international productivity and collaboration, and hot issues and research trends. The growth of article outputs in artificial intelligence research has exploded since the 1990s, along with increasing collaboration, reference, and citations. Computer science and engineering were the most frequently-used subject categories in artificial intelligence studies. The top twenty productive authors are distributed in countries with a high investment of research and development. The United States has the highest number of top research institutions in artificial intelligence, producing most single-country and collaborative articles. Although there is more and more collaboration among institutions, cooperation, especially international ones, are not highly prevalent in artificial intelligence research as expected. The keyword analysis revealed interesting research preferences, confirmed that methods, models, and application are in the central position of artificial intelligence. Further, we found interesting related keywords with high co-occurrence frequencies, which have helped identify new models and application areas in recent years. Bibliometric analysis results from our study will greatly facilitate the understanding of the progress and trends in artificial intelligence, in particular, for those researchers interested in domain-specific AI-driven problem-solving. This will be

  7. Spatially-explicit estimation of geographical representation in large-scale species distribution datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalwij, Jesse M; Robertson, Mark P; Ronk, Argo; Zobel, Martin; Pärtel, Meelis

    2014-01-01

    Much ecological research relies on existing multispecies distribution datasets. Such datasets, however, can vary considerably in quality, extent, resolution or taxonomic coverage. We provide a framework for a spatially-explicit evaluation of geographical representation within large-scale species distribution datasets, using the comparison of an occurrence atlas with a range atlas dataset as a working example. Specifically, we compared occurrence maps for 3773 taxa from the widely-used Atlas Florae Europaeae (AFE) with digitised range maps for 2049 taxa of the lesser-known Atlas of North European Vascular Plants. We calculated the level of agreement at a 50-km spatial resolution using average latitudinal and longitudinal species range, and area of occupancy. Agreement in species distribution was calculated and mapped using Jaccard similarity index and a reduced major axis (RMA) regression analysis of species richness between the entire atlases (5221 taxa in total) and between co-occurring species (601 taxa). We found no difference in distribution ranges or in the area of occupancy frequency distribution, indicating that atlases were sufficiently overlapping for a valid comparison. The similarity index map showed high levels of agreement for central, western, and northern Europe. The RMA regression confirmed that geographical representation of AFE was low in areas with a sparse data recording history (e.g., Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine). For co-occurring species in south-eastern Europe, however, the Atlas of North European Vascular Plants showed remarkably higher richness estimations. Geographical representation of atlas data can be much more heterogeneous than often assumed. Level of agreement between datasets can be used to evaluate geographical representation within datasets. Merging atlases into a single dataset is worthwhile in spite of methodological differences, and helps to fill gaps in our knowledge of species distribution ranges. Species distribution

  8. Cholera in the Lake Kivu region (DRC): Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-07-01

    Mathematical models of cholera dynamics can not only help in identifying environmental drivers and processes that influence disease transmission, but may also represent valuable tools for the prediction of the epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. Cholera outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the 1970s. They have been ravaging the shore of Lake Kivu in the east of the country repeatedly during the last decades. Here we employ a spatially explicit, inhomogeneous Markov chain model to describe cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed data sets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers in addition to baseline seasonality. The effect of human mobility is also modelled mechanistically. We test several models on a multiyear data set of reported cholera cases. The best fourteen models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via proper cross validation. Among these, the one accounting for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility outperforms the others in cross validation. Some drivers (such as human mobility and rainfall) are retained only by a few models, possibly indicating that the mechanisms through which they influence cholera dynamics in the area will have to be investigated further.

  9. Quantifying multiple telecouplings using an integrated suite of spatially-explicit tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, F.; Liu, J.

    2016-12-01

    Telecoupling is an interdisciplinary research umbrella concept that enables natural and social scientists to understand and generate information for managing how humans and nature can sustainably coexist worldwide. To systematically study telecoupling, it is essential to build a comprehensive set of spatially-explicit tools for describing and quantifying multiple reciprocal socioeconomic and environmental interactions between a focal area and other areas. Here we introduce the Telecoupling Toolbox, a new free and open-source set of tools developed to map and identify the five major interrelated components of the telecoupling framework: systems, flows, agents, causes, and effects. The modular design of the toolbox allows the integration of existing tools and software (e.g. InVEST) to assess synergies and tradeoffs associated with policies and other local to global interventions. We show applications of the toolbox using a number of representative studies that address a variety of scientific and management issues related to telecouplings throughout the world. The results suggest that the toolbox can thoroughly map and quantify multiple telecouplings under various contexts while providing users with an easy-to-use interface. It provides a powerful platform to address globally important issues, such as land use and land cover change, species invasion, migration, flows of ecosystem services, and international trade of goods and products.

  10. Behavioral response to contamination risk information in a spatially explicit groundwater environment: Experimental evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jingyuan; Michael, Holly A.; Duke, Joshua M.; Messer, Kent D.; Suter, Jordan F.

    2014-08-01

    This paper assesses the effectiveness of aquifer monitoring information in achieving more sustainable use of a groundwater resource in the absence of management policy. Groundwater user behavior in the face of an irreversible contamination threat is studied by applying methods of experimental economics to scenarios that combine a physics-based, spatially explicit, numerical groundwater model with different representations of information about an aquifer and its risk of contamination. The results suggest that the threat of catastrophic contamination affects pumping decisions: pumping is significantly reduced in experiments where contamination is possible compared to those where pumping cost is the only factor discouraging groundwater use. The level of information about the state of the aquifer also affects extraction behavior. Pumping rates differ when information that synthesizes data on aquifer conditions (a "risk gauge") is provided, despite invariant underlying economic incentives, and this result does not depend on whether the risk information is location-specific or from a whole aquifer perspective. Interestingly, users increase pumping when the risk gauge signals good aquifer status compared to a no-gauge treatment. When the gauge suggests impending contamination, however, pumping declines significantly, resulting in a lower probability of contamination. The study suggests that providing relatively simple aquifer condition guidance derived from monitoring data can lead to more sustainable use of groundwater resources.

  11. Improved Satellite-based Crop Yield Mapping by Spatially Explicit Parameterization of Crop Phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Z.; Azzari, G.; Lobell, D. B.

    2016-12-01

    Field-scale mapping of crop yields with satellite data often relies on the use of crop simulation models. However, these approaches can be hampered by inaccuracies in the simulation of crop phenology. Here we present and test an approach to use dense time series of Landsat 7 and 8 acquisitions data to calibrate various parameters related to crop phenology simulation, such as leaf number and leaf appearance rates. These parameters are then mapped across the Midwestern United States for maize and soybean, and for two different simulation models. We then implement our recently developed Scalable satellite-based Crop Yield Mapper (SCYM) with simulations reflecting the improved phenology parameterizations, and compare to prior estimates based on default phenology routines. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can effectively alleviate the underestimation of early-season LAI by the default Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), and that spatially explicit parameterization for the phenology model substantially improves the SCYM performance in capturing the spatiotemporal variation in maize and soybean yield. The scheme presented in our study thus preserves the scalability of SCYM, while significantly reducing its uncertainty.

  12. A stage-structured, spatially explicit migration model for Myotis bats: mortality location affects system dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Richard A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Russell, Robin E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.

    2014-01-01

    Bats are ecologically and economically important species because they consume insects, transport nutrients, and pollinate flowers.  Many species of bats, including those in the Myotis genus, are facing population decline and increased extinction risk.  Despite these conservation concerns, few models exist for providing insight into the population dynamics of bats in a spatially explicit context.  We developed a model for bats by considering the stage-structured colonial life history of Myotis bats with their annual migration behavior.  This model provided insight into network dynamics.  We specifically focused on two Myotis species living in the eastern United States: the Indiana bat (M. sodalis), which is a Federally listed endangered species, and the little brown bat (M. lucifugus), which is under consideration for listing as an endangered species.  We found that multiple equilibria exist for the local, migratory subpopulations even though the total population was constant.  These equilibria suggest the location and magnitude of stressors such as White-nose Syndrome, meteorological phenomena, or impacts of wind turbines on survival influence system dynamics and risk of population extirpation in difficult to predict ways.

  13. Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel R. Sleeter

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS, a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit and describe initial conditions (strata, state classes and forest age, spatial multipliers, and carbon stock density. Initial conditions were derived from harmonization of multi-temporal data characterizing changes in land use as well as land cover. Harmonization combines numerous national-level datasets through a cell-based data fusion process to generate maps of primary LULC categories. Forest age was parameterized using data from the North American Carbon Program and spatially-explicit maps showing the locations of past disturbances (i.e. wildfire and harvest. Spatial multipliers were developed to spatially constrain the location of future LULC transitions. Based on distance-decay theory, maps were generated to guide the placement of changes related to forest harvest, agricultural intensification/extensification, and urbanization. We analyze the spatially-explicit input parameters with a sensitivity analysis, by showing how LUCAS responds to variations in the model input. This manuscript uses Mediterranean California as a regional subset to highlight local to regional aspects of land change, which demonstrates the utility of LUCAS at many scales and applications.

  14. Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Rachel; Acevedo, William; Soulard, Christopher E.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2015-01-01

    Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit and describe initial conditions (strata, state classes and forest age), spatial multipliers, and carbon stock density. Initial conditions were derived from harmonization of multi-temporal data characterizing changes in land use as well as land cover. Harmonization combines numerous national-level datasets through a cell-based data fusion process to generate maps of primary LULC categories. Forest age was parameterized using data from the North American Carbon Program and spatially-explicit maps showing the locations of past disturbances (i.e. wildfire and harvest). Spatial multipliers were developed to spatially constrain the location of future LULC transitions. Based on distance-decay theory, maps were generated to guide the placement of changes related to forest harvest, agricultural intensification/extensification, and urbanization. We analyze the spatially-explicit input parameters with a sensitivity analysis, by showing how LUCAS responds to variations in the model input. This manuscript uses Mediterranean California as a regional subset to highlight local to regional aspects of land change, which demonstrates the utility of LUCAS at many scales and applications.

  15. Integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    A key aspect of disaster prevention is flood discharge forecasting which is used for early warning and therefore as a decision support for intervention forces. Hereby, the phase between the issued forecast and the time when the expected flood occurs is crucial for an optimal planning of the intervention. Typically, river discharge forecasts cover the regional level only, i.e. larger catchments. However, it is important to note that these forecasts are not useable directly for specific target groups on local level because these forecasts say nothing about the consequences of the predicted flood in terms of affected areas, number of exposed residents and houses. For this, on one hand simulations of the flooding processes and on the other hand data of vulnerable objects are needed. Furthermore, flood modelling in a high spatial and temporal resolution is required for robust flood loss estimation. This is a resource-intensive task from a computing time point of view. Therefore, in real-time applications flood modelling in 2D is not suited. Thus, forecasting flood losses in the short-term (6h-24h in advance) requires a different approach. Here, we propose a method to downscale the river discharge forecast to a spatially-explicit flood loss forecast. The principal procedure is to generate as many flood scenarios as needed in advance to represent the flooded areas for all possible flood hydrographs, e.g. very high peak discharges of short duration vs. high peak discharges with high volumes. For this, synthetic flood hydrographs were derived from the hydrologic time series. Then, the flooded areas of each scenario were modelled with a 2D flood simulation model. All scenarios were intersected with the dataset of vulnerable objects, in our case residential, agricultural and industrial buildings with information about the number of residents, the object-specific vulnerability, and the monetary value of the objects. This dataset was prepared by a data-mining approach. For each

  16. Hydroclimatology of Dual Peak Cholera Incidence in Bengal Region: Inferences from a Spatial Explicit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2010-12-01

    The seasonality of cholera and its relation with environmental drivers are receiving increasing interest and research efforts, yet they remain unsatisfactorily understood. A striking example is the observed annual cycle of cholera incidence in the Bengal region which exhibits two peaks despite the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (air and sea surface temperature, zooplankton density, river discharge) follow a synchronous single-peak annual pattern. A first outbreak, mainly affecting the coastal regions, occurs in spring and it is followed, after a period of low incidence during summer, by a second, usually larger, peak in autumn also involving regions situated farther inland. A hydroclimatological explanation for this unique seasonal cycle has been recently proposed: the low river spring flows favor the intrusion of brackish water (the natural environment of the causative agent of the disease) which, in turn, triggers the first outbreak. The summer rising river discharges have a temporary dilution effect and prompt the repulsion of contaminated water which lowers the disease incidence. However, the monsoon flooding, together with the induced crowding of the population and the failure of the sanitation systems, can possibly facilitate the spatial transmission of the disease and promote the autumn outbreak. We test this hypothesis using a mechanistic, spatially explicit model of cholera epidemic. The framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for the annual fluctuation of the river flow. The model is forced with the actual environmental drivers of the region, namely river flow and temperature. Our results show that these two drivers, both having a single peak in the summer, can generate a double peak cholera incidence pattern. Besides temporal patterns, the model is also able to qualitatively reproduce spatial patterns characterized

  17. Spatially explicit modeling of conflict zones between wildlife and snow sports: prioritizing areas for winter refuges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braunisch, Veronika; Patthey, Patrick; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2011-04-01

    Outdoor winter recreation exerts an increasing pressure upon mountain ecosystems, with unpredictable, free-ranging activities (e.g., ski mountaineering, snowboarding, and snowshoeing) representing a major source of stress for wildlife. Mitigating anthropogenic disturbance requires the spatially explicit prediction of the interference between the activities of humans and wildlife. We applied spatial modeling to localize conflict zones between wintering Black Grouse (Tetrao tetrix), a declining species of Alpine timberline ecosystems, and two free-ranging winter sports (off-piste skiing [including snow-boarding] and snowshoeing). Track data (snow-sports and birds' traces) obtained from aerial photographs taken over a 585-km transect running along the timberline, implemented within a maximum entropy model, were used to predict the occurrence of snow sports and Black Grouse as a function of landscape characteristics. By modeling Black Grouse presence in the theoretical absence of free-ranging activities and ski infrastructure, we first estimated the amount of habitat reduction caused by these two factors. The models were then extrapolated to the altitudinal range occupied by Black Grouse, while the spatial extent and intensity of potential conflict were assessed by calculating the probability of human-wildlife co-occurrence. The two snow-sports showed different distribution patterns. Skiers' occurrence was mainly determined by ski-lift presence and a smooth terrain, while snowshoers' occurrence was linked to hiking or skiing routes and moderate slopes. Wintering Black Grouse avoided ski lifts and areas frequented by free-ranging snow sports. According to the models, Black Grouse have faced a substantial reduction of suitable wintering habitat along the timberline transect: 12% due to ski infrastructure and another 16% when adding free-ranging activities. Extrapolating the models over the whole study area results in an overall habitat loss due to ski infrastructure of

  18. SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MICRO-LEVEL MODELLING OF LAND USE CHANGE AT THE RURAL-URBAN INTERFACE. (R828012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper describes micro-economic models of land use change applicable to the rural–urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro-level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate...

  19. Changing relationships between land use and environmental characteristics and their consequences for spatially explicit land-use change prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2012-01-01

    Spatially explicit land-use change prediction is often based on environmental characteristics of land-use types, such as soil type and slope, as observed at one time instant. This approach presumes that relationships between land use and environment are constant over time. We argue that such

  20. A new approach to spatially explicit modelling of forest dynamics: spacing, ageing and neighbourhood competition of mangrove trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berger, U.; Hildenbrandt, H.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to spatially explicit modelling that enables the influence of neighbourhood effects on the dynamics of forests and plant communities to be analysed. We refer to this approach as 'field of neighbourhood' (FON). It combines the 'neighbourhood philosophy' of

  1. Spatially Explicit Simulation of Mesotopographic Controls on Peatland Hydrology and Carbon Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnentag, O.; Chen, J. M.; Roulet, N. T.

    2006-12-01

    A number of field carbon flux measurements, paleoecological records, and model simulations have acknowledged the importance of northern peatlands in terrestrial carbon cycling and methane emissions. An important parameter in peatlands that influences both net primary productivity, the net gain of carbon through photosynthesis, and decomposition under aerobic and anaerobic conditions, is the position of the water table. Biological and physical processes involved in peatland carbon dynamics and their hydrological controls operate at different spatial scales. The highly variable hydraulic characteristics of the peat profile and the overall shape of the peat body as defined by its surface topography at the mesoscale (104 m2) are of major importance for peatland water table dynamics. Common types of peatlands include bogs with a slightly domed centre. As a result of the convex profile, their water supply is restricted to atmospheric inputs, and water is mainly shed by shallow subsurface flow. From a modelling perspective the influence of mesotopographic controls on peatland hydrology and thus carbon balance requires that process-oriented models that examine the links between peatland hydrology, ecosystem functioning, and climate must incorporate some form of lateral subsurface flow consideration. Most hydrological and ecological modelling studies in complex terrain explicitly account for the topographic controls on lateral subsurface flow through digital elevation models. However, modelling studies in peatlands often employ simple empirical parameterizations of lateral subsurface flow, neglecting the influence of peatlands low relief mesoscale topography. Our objective is to explicitly simulate the mesotopographic controls on peatland hydrology and carbon fluxes using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) adapted to northern peatlands. BEPS is a process-oriented ecosystem model in a remote sensing framework that takes into account peatlands multi

  2. Spatially explicit exposure assessment for small streams in catchments of the orchard growing region `Lake Constance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golla, B.; Bach, M.; Krumpe, J.

    2009-04-01

    1. Introduction Small streams differ greatly from the standardised water body used in the context of aquatic risk assessment for the regulation of plant protection products in Germany. The standard water body is static, with a depth of 0.3 m and a width of 1.0 m. No dilution or water replacement takes place. Spray drift happens always in direction to the water body. There is no variability in drift deposition rate (90th percentile spray drift deposition values [2]). There is no spray drift filtering by vegetation. The application takes place directly adjacent to the water body. In order to establish a more realistic risk assessment procedure the Federal Office for Consumer Protection and Food Safety (BVL) and the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) aggreed to replace deterministic assumptions with data distributions and spatially explicit data and introduce probabilistic methods [3, 4, 5]. To consider the spatial and temporal variability in the exposure situations of small streams the hydraulic and morphological characteristics of catchments need to be described as well as the spatial distribution of fields treated with pesticides. As small streams are the dominant type of water body in most German orchard regions, we use the growing region Lake Constance as pilot region. 2. Materials and methods During field surveys we derive basic morphological parameters for small streams in the Lake Constance region. The mean water width/depth ratio is 13 with a mean depth of 0.12 m. The average residence time is 5.6 s/m (n=87) [1]. Orchards are mostly located in the upper parts of the catchments. Based on an authoritative dataset on rivers and streams of Germany (ATKIS DLM25) we constructed a directed network topology for the Lake Constance region. The gradient of the riverbed is calculated for river stretches of > 500 m length. The network for the pilot region consists of 2000 km rivers and streams. 500 km stream length are located within a distance of 150 m to orchards. Within

  3. Plague metapopulation dynamics in a natural reservoir

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, S; Klassovskiy, N; Ageyev, V

    2007-01-01

    The ecology of plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in its ancient foci in Central Asia remains poorly understood. We present field data from two sites in Kazakhstan where the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is the major natural host. Family groups inhabit and defend burrow systems spaced throughout...... the landscape, such that the host population may be considered a metapopulation, with each occupied burrow system a subpopulation. We examine plague transmission within and between family groups and its effect on survival. Transmission of plague occurred disproportionately within family groups although not all...... gerbils became infected once plague entered a burrow system. There were no spatial patterns to suggest that family groups in close proximity to infected burrow systems were more at risk of infection than those far away. At one site, infection increased the chances of burrow-system extinction. Overall...

  4. Probabilistic measures of persistence and extinction in measles (meta)populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunning, Christian E; Wearing, Helen J

    2013-08-01

    Persistence and extinction are fundamental processes in ecological systems that are difficult to accurately measure due to stochasticity and incomplete observation. Moreover, these processes operate on multiple scales, from individual populations to metapopulations. Here, we examine an extensive new data set of measles case reports and associated demographics in pre-vaccine era US cities, alongside a classic England & Wales data set. We first infer the per-population quasi-continuous distribution of log incidence. We then use stochastic, spatially implicit metapopulation models to explore the frequency of rescue events and apparent extinctions. We show that, unlike critical community size, the inferred distributions account for observational processes, allowing direct comparisons between metapopulations. The inferred distributions scale with population size. We use these scalings to estimate extinction boundary probabilities. We compare these predictions with measurements in individual populations and random aggregates of populations, highlighting the importance of medium-sized populations in metapopulation persistence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  5. Local approximation of a metapopulation's equilibrium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbour, A D; McVinish, R; Pollett, P K

    2018-04-18

    We consider the approximation of the equilibrium of a metapopulation model, in which a finite number of patches are randomly distributed over a bounded subset [Formula: see text] of Euclidean space. The approximation is good when a large number of patches contribute to the colonization pressure on any given unoccupied patch, and when the quality of the patches varies little over the length scale determined by the colonization radius. If this is the case, the equilibrium probability of a patch at z being occupied is shown to be close to [Formula: see text], the equilibrium occupation probability in Levins's model, at any point [Formula: see text] not too close to the boundary, if the local colonization pressure and extinction rates appropriate to z are assumed. The approximation is justified by giving explicit upper and lower bounds for the occupation probabilities, expressed in terms of the model parameters. Since the patches are distributed randomly, the occupation probabilities are also random, and we complement our bounds with explicit bounds on the probability that they are satisfied at all patches simultaneously.

  6. Spatially Explicit Modelling of the Belgian Major Endurance Event 'The 100 km Dodentocht'.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffie Van Nieuland

    Full Text Available 'The 100 km Dodentocht', which takes place annually and has its start in Bornem, Belgium, is a long distance march where participants have to cover a 100 km trail in at most 24 hours. The approximately 11 000 marchers per edition are tracked by making use of passive radio-frequency-identification (RFID. These tracking data were analyzed to build a spatially explicit marching model that gives insights into the dynamics of the event and allows to evaluate the effect of changes in the starting procedure of the event. For building the model, the empirical distribution functions (edf of the marching speeds at every section of the trail in between two consecutive checkpoints and of the checkpoints where marchers retire, are determined, taking into account age, gender, and marching speeds at previous sections. These distribution functions are then used to sample the consecutive speeds and retirement, and as such to simulate the times when individual marchers pass by the consecutive checkpoints. We concluded that the data-driven model simulates the event reliably. Furthermore, we tested three scenarios to reduce the crowdiness along the first part of the trail and in this way were able to conclude that either the start should be moved to a location outside the town center where the streets are at least 25% wider, or that the marchers should start in two groups at two different locations, and that these groups should ideally merge at about 20 km after the start. The crowdiness at the start might also be reduced by installing a bottleneck at the start in order to limit the number of marchers that can pass per unit of time. Consequently, the operating hours of the consecutive checkpoints would be longer. The developed framework can likewise be used to analyze and improve the operation of other endurance events if sufficient tracking data are available.

  7. A spatially explicit model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2011-12-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to July 2011, climb to 385,000 cases and 5,800 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of textit{Vibrio cholera}, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan texttrademark project). The model directly account for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations, clean water supply and educational campaigns, thus emerging as an essential component of the control of future cholera

  8. Human Mobility Patterns and Cholera Epidemics: a Spatially Explicit Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mari, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2010-12-01

    Cholera is an acute enteric disease caused by the ingestion of water or food contaminated by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. Although most infected individuals do not develop severe symptoms, their stool may contain huge quantities of V.~cholerae cells. Therefore, while traveling or commuting, asymptomatic carriers can be responsible for the long-range dissemination of the disease. As a consequence, human mobility is an alternative and efficient driver for the spread of cholera, whose primary propagation pathway is hydrological transport through river networks. We present a multi-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of V.~cholerae due to human movement. In particular, building on top of state-of-the-art spatially explicit models for cholera spread through surface waters, we describe human movement and its effects on the propagation of the disease by means of a gravity-model approach borrowed from transportation theory. Gravity-like contact processes have been widely used in epidemiology, because they can satisfactorily depict human movement when data on actual mobility patterns are not available. We test our model against epidemiological data recorded during the cholera outbreak occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during years 2000--2001. We show that human mobility does actually play an important role in the formation of the spatiotemporal patterns of cholera epidemics. In particular, long-range human movement may determine inter-catchment dissemination of V.~cholerae cells, thus in turn explaining the emergence of epidemic patterns that cannot be produced by hydrological transport alone. We also show that particular attention has to be devoted to study how heterogeneously distributed drinking water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect cholera transmission.

  9. Spatially explicit simulation of peatland hydrology and carbon dioxide exchange: Influence of mesoscale topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnentag, O.; Chen, J. M.; Roulet, N. T.; Ju, W.; Govind, A.

    2008-06-01

    Carbon dynamics in peatlands are controlled, in large part, by their wetness as defined by water table depth and volumetric liquid soil moisture content. A common type of peatland is raised bogs that typically have a multiple-layer canopy of vascular plants over a Sphagnum moss ground cover. Their convex form restricts water supply to precipitation and water is shed toward the margins, usually by lateral subsurface flow. The hydraulic gradient for lateral subsurface flow is governed by the peat surface topography at the mesoscale (˜200 m to 5 km). To investigate the influence of mesoscale topography on wetness, evapotranspiration (ET), and gross primary productivity (GPP) in a bog during the snow-free period, we compare the outputs of a further developed version of the daily Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) with observations made at the Mer Bleue peatland, located near Ottawa, Canada. Explicitly considering mesoscale topography, simulated total ET and GPP correlate well with measured ET (r = 0.91) and derived gross ecosystem productivity (GEP; r = 0.92). Both measured ET and derived GEP are simulated similarly well when mesoscale topography is neglected, but daily simulated values are systematically underestimated by about 10% and 12% on average, respectively, due to greater wetness resulting from the lack of lateral subsurface flow. Owing to the differences in moss surface conductances of water vapor and carbon dioxide with increasing moss water content, the differences in the spatial patterns of simulated total ET and GPP are controlled by the mesotopographic position of the moss ground cover.

  10. Spatially explicit analysis of field inventories for national forest carbon monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David C. Marvin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Tropical forests provide a crucial carbon sink for a sizable portion of annual global CO2 emissions. Policies that incentivize tropical forest conservation by monetizing forest carbon ultimately depend on accurate estimates of national carbon stocks, which are often based on field inventory sampling. As an exercise to understand the limitations of field inventory sampling, we tested whether two common field-plot sampling approaches could accurately estimate carbon stocks across approximately 76 million ha of Perúvian forests. A 1-ha resolution LiDAR-based map of carbon stocks was used as a model of the country’s carbon geography. Results Both field inventory sampling approaches worked well in estimating total national carbon stocks, almost always falling within 10 % of the model national total. However, the sampling approaches were unable to produce accurate spatially-explicit estimates of the carbon geography of Perú, with estimates falling within 10 % of the model carbon geography across no more than 44 % of the country. We did not find any associations between carbon stock errors from the field plot estimates and six different environmental variables. Conclusions Field inventory plot sampling does not provide accurate carbon geography for a tropical country with wide ranging environmental gradients such as Perú. The lack of association between estimated carbon errors and environmental variables suggests field inventory sampling results from other nations would not differ from those reported here. Tropical forest nations should understand the risks associated with primarily field-based sampling approaches, and consider alternatives leading to more effective forest conservation and climate change mitigation.

  11. A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monsarrat, Sophie; Pennino, M Grazia; Smith, Tim D; Reeves, Randall R; Meynard, Christine N; Kaplan, David M; Rodrigues, Ana S L

    2016-08-01

    The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. Spatially explicit assessment of ecosystem services in China's Loess Plateau: Patterns, interactions, drivers, and implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Chong; Zhang, Haiyan; Zhang, Zhidong

    2018-02-01

    Human demands for natural resources have significantly changed the natural landscape and induced ecological degradation and associated ecosystem services. An understanding of the patterns, interactions, and drivers of ecosystem services is essential for the ecosystem management and guiding targeted land use policy-making. The Losses Plateau (LP) provides ecosystem services including the carbon sequestration and soil retention, and exerts tremendous impacts on the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River. Three dominant ecosystem services between 2000 and 2012 within the LP were presented based on multiple source datasets and biophysical models. In addition, paired ecosystem services interactions were quantified using the correlation analysis and constraint line approach. The main conclusions are as follows. It was observed that the warming and wetting climate and ecological program jointly promoted the vegetation growth and carbon sequestration. The increasing precipitation throughout 2000-2012 was related to the soil retention and hydrological regulation fluctuations. The vegetation restoration played a positive role in the soil retention enhancement, thus substantially reduced water and sediment yields. The relationships between ecosystem services were not only correlations (tradeoffs or synergies), but rather constraint effects. The constraint effects between the three paired ecosystem services could be classified as the negative convex (carbon sequestration vs. hydrological regulation) and hump-shaped (soil retention vs. carbon sequestration and soil retention vs. hydrological regulation), and the coefficients of determination for the entire LP were 0.78, 0.84, and 0.65, respectively. In the LP, the rainfall (water availability) was the key constraint factor that affected the relationships between the paired ecosystem services. The spatially explicit mapping of ecosystem services and interaction analyses utilizing constraint line approach enriched the

  13. Biomass supply from alternative cellulosic crops and crop residues: A spatially explicit bioeconomic modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Swinton, Scott M.; Izaurralde, César R.; Manowitz, David H.; Zhang, Xuesong

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces a spatially-explicit bioeconomic model for the study of potential cellulosic biomass supply. For biomass crops to begin to replace current crops, farmers must earn more from them than from current crops. Using weather, topographic and soil data, the terrestrial ecosystem model, EPIC, dynamically simulates multiple cropping systems that vary by crop rotation, tillage, fertilization and residue removal rate. EPIC generates predicted crop yield and environmental outcomes over multiple watersheds. These EPIC results are used to parameterize a regional profit-maximization mathematical programming model that identifies profitable cropping system choices. The bioeconomic model is calibrated to 2007–09 crop production in a 9-county region of southwest Michigan. A simulation of biomass supply in response to rising biomass prices shows that cellulosic residues from corn stover and wheat straw begin to be supplied at minimum delivered biomass:corn grain price ratios of 0.15 and 0.18, respectively. At the mean corn price of $162.6/Mg ($4.13 per bushel) at commercial moisture content during 2007–2009, these ratios correspond to stover and straw prices of $24 and $29 per dry Mg. Perennial bioenergy crops begin to be supplied at price levels 2–3 times higher. Average biomass transport costs to the biorefinery plant range from $6 to $20/Mg compared to conventional crop production practices in the area, biomass supply from annual crop residues increased greenhouse gas emissions and reduced water quality through increased nutrient loss. By contrast, perennial cellulosic biomass crop production reduced greenhouse gas emissions and improved water quality. -- Highlights: ► A new bioeconomic model predicts biomass supply and its environmental impacts. ► The model captures the opportunity cost of switching to new cellulosic crops. ► Biomass from crop residues is supplied at lower biomass price than cellulosic crops. ► Biomass from cellulosic crops has

  14. Towards Linking 3D SAR and Lidar Models with a Spatially Explicit Individual Based Forest Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, B.; Ranson, J.; Sun, G.; Armstrong, A. H.; Fischer, R.; Huth, A.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we present a parameterization of the FORMIND individual-based gap model (IBGM)for old growth Atlantic lowland rainforest in La Selva, Costa Rica for the purpose of informing multisensor remote sensing techniques for above ground biomass techniques. The model was successfully parameterized and calibrated for the study site; results show that the simulated forest reproduces the structural complexity of Costa Rican rainforest based on comparisons with CARBONO inventory plot data. Though the simulated stem numbers (378) slightly underestimated the plot data (418), particularly for canopy dominant intermediate shade tolerant trees and shade tolerant understory trees, overall there was a 9.7% difference. Aboveground biomass (kg/ha) showed a 0.1% difference between the simulated forest and inventory plot dataset. The Costa Rica FORMIND simulation was then used to parameterize a spatially explicit (3D) SAR and lidar backscatter models. The simulated forest stands were used to generate a Look Up Table as a tractable means to estimate aboveground forest biomass for these complex forests. Various combinations of lidar and radar variables were evaluated in the LUT inversion. To test the capability of future data for estimation of forest height and biomass, we considered data of 1) L- (or P-) band polarimetric data (backscattering coefficients of HH, HV and VV); 2) L-band dual-pol repeat-pass InSAR data (HH/HV backscattering coefficients and coherences, height of scattering phase center at HH and HV using DEM or surface height from lidar data as reference); 3) P-band polarimetric InSAR data (canopy height from inversion of PolInSAR data or use the coherences and height of scattering phase center at HH, HV and VV); 4) various height indices from waveform lidar data); and 5) surface and canopy top height from photon-counting lidar data. The methods for parameterizing the remote sensing models with the IBGM and developing Look Up Tables will be discussed. Results

  15. SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT BAT IMPACT SCREENING TOOL FOR WIND TURBINE SITING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Versar, Inc.; Exponent, Inc.

    2013-10-28

    As the U.S. seeks to increase energy production from renewable energy sources, development of wind power resources continues to grow. One of the most important ecological issues restricting wind energy development, especially the siting of wind turbines, is the potential adverse effect on bats. High levels of bat fatality have been recorded at a number of wind energy facilities, especially in the eastern United States. The U.S. Department of Energy contracted with Versar, Inc., and Exponent to develop a spatially-explicit site screening tool to evaluate the mortality of bats resulting from interactions (collisions or barotrauma) with wind turbines. The resulting Bat Vulnerability Assessment Tool (BVAT) presented in this report integrates spatial information about turbine locations, bat habitat features, and bat behavior as it relates to possible interactions with turbines. A model demonstration was conducted that focuses on two bat species, the eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis) and the Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis). The eastern red bat is a relatively common tree-roosting species that ranges broadly during migration in the Eastern U.S., whereas the Indiana bat is regional species that migrates between a summer range and cave hibernacula. Moreover, Indiana bats are listed as endangered, and so the impacts to this species are of particular interest. The model demonstration used conditions at the Mountaineer Wind Energy Center (MWEC), which consists of 44 wind turbines arranged in a linear array near Thomas, West Virginia (Tucker County), to illustrate model functions and not to represent actual or potential impacts of the facility. The turbines at MWEC are erected on the ridge of Backbone Mountain with a nacelle height of 70 meters and a collision area of 72 meters (blade height) or 4,071 meters square. The habitat surrounding the turbines is an Appalachian mixed mesophytic forest. Model sensitivity runs showed that bat mortality in the model was most sensitive to

  16. A Spatially Explicit Dual-Isotope Approach to Map Regions of Plant-Plant Interaction after Exotic Plant Invasion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Hellmann

    Full Text Available Understanding interactions between native and invasive plant species in field settings and quantifying the impact of invaders in heterogeneous native ecosystems requires resolving the spatial scale on which these processes take place. Therefore, functional tracers are needed that enable resolving the alterations induced by exotic plant invasion in contrast to natural variation in a spatially explicit way. 15N isoscapes, i.e., spatially referenced representations of stable nitrogen isotopic signatures, have recently provided such a tracer. However, different processes, e.g. water, nitrogen or carbon cycles, may be affected at different spatial scales. Thus multi-isotope studies, by using different functional tracers, can potentially return a more integrated picture of invader impact. This is particularly true when isoscapes are submitted to statistical methods suitable to find homogeneous subgroups in multivariate data such as cluster analysis. Here, we used model-based clustering of spatially explicit foliar δ15N and δ13C isoscapes together with N concentration of a native indicator species, Corema album, to map regions of influence in a Portuguese dune ecosystem invaded by the N2-fixing Acacia longifolia. Cluster analysis identified regions with pronounced alterations in N budget and water use efficiency in the native species, with a more than twofold increase in foliar N, and δ13C and δ15N enrichment of up to 2‰ and 8‰ closer to the invader, respectively. Furthermore, clusters of multiple functional tracers indicated a spatial shift from facilitation through N addition in the proximity of the invader to competition for resources other than N in close contact. Finding homogeneous subgroups in multi-isotope data by means of model-based cluster analysis provided an effective tool for detecting spatial structure in processes affecting plant physiology and performance. The proposed method can give an objective measure of the spatial extent

  17. Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yingbin; Chen, Youqi; Tang, Huajun; Yao, Yanmin; Yang, Peng; Chen, Zhongxin

    2011-04-01

    Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996-2006 (3,226.2739 US$×10(6) in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$×10(6) in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.

  18. Implicit and Explicit Gender Beliefs in Spatial Ability : Stronger Stereotyping in Boys than Girls

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vander Heyden, Karin M; van Atteveldt, Nienke M; Huizinga, Mariette; Jolles, Jelle

    2016-01-01

    Sex differences in spatial ability are a seriously debated topic, given the importance of spatial ability for success in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and girls' underrepresentation in these domains. In the current study we investigated the presence of

  19. Comparing spatially explicit ecological and social values for natural areas to identify effective conservation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Brett Anthony; Raymond, Christopher Mark; Crossman, Neville David; King, Darran

    2011-02-01

    Consideration of the social values people assign to relatively undisturbed native ecosystems is critical for the success of science-based conservation plans. We used an interview process to identify and map social values assigned to 31 ecosystem services provided by natural areas in an agricultural landscape in southern Australia. We then modeled the spatial distribution of 12 components of ecological value commonly used in setting spatial conservation priorities. We used the analytical hierarchy process to weight these components and used multiattribute utility theory to combine them into a single spatial layer of ecological value. Social values assigned to natural areas were negatively correlated with ecological values overall, but were positively correlated with some components of ecological value. In terms of the spatial distribution of values, people valued protected areas, whereas those natural areas underrepresented in the reserve system were of higher ecological value. The habitats of threatened animal species were assigned both high ecological value and high social value. Only small areas were assigned both high ecological value and high social value in the study area, whereas large areas of high ecological value were of low social value, and vice versa. We used the assigned ecological and social values to identify different conservation strategies (e.g., information sharing, community engagement, incentive payments) that may be effective for specific areas. We suggest that consideration of both ecological and social values in selection of conservation strategies can enhance the success of science-based conservation planning. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

  20. Resilience in rural social-ecological systems : a spatially explicit agent-based modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schouten, M.A.H.

    2013-01-01

    Rural areas are increasingly changed by drivers on large spatial scales such as economic globalization and climate change. These international drivers may bring forth abrupt disturbances, such as high output price peaks and falls, water floods and droughts, and massive outbreaks of animal

  1. An unified framework to integrate biotic, abiotic processes and human activities in spatially explicit models of agricultural landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrice eVinatier

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Recent concern over possible ways to sustain ecosystem services has triggered important research worldwide on ecosystem processes at the landscape scale. Understanding this complexity of landscape functioning calls for coupled and spatially-explicit modelling approaches. However, disciplinary boundaries have limited the number of multi-process studies at the landscape scale, and current progress in coupling processes at this scale often reveals strong imbalance between biotic and abiotic processes, depending on the core discipline of the modellers. We propose a spatially-explicit, unified conceptual framework that allows researchers from different fields to develop a shared view of agricultural landscapes. In particular,we distinguish landscape elements that are mobile in space and represent biotic or abiotic objects (for example water, fauna or flora populations, and elements that are immobile and represent fixed landscape elements with a given geometry (for example ditch section or plot. The shared representation of these elements allows setting common objects and spatio-temporal process boundaries that may otherwise differ between disciplines. We present guidelines and an assessment of the applicability of this framework to a virtual landscape system with realistic properties. This framework allows the complex system to be represented with a limited set of concepts but leaves the possibility to include current modelling strategies specific to biotic or abiotic disciplines. Future operational challenges include model design, space and time discretization, and the availability of both landscape modelling platforms and data.

  2. A Spatially Explicit Method to Assess the Economic Suitability of a Forest Road Network for Timber Harvest in Steep Terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leo Gallus Bont

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite relatively high road density in the forests of Switzerland, a large percentage of that road network does not fulfill best practice requirements. Before upgrading or rebuilding the road network, harvesting planners must first determine which areas have insufficient access. Traditional assessment methods tend to only report specific values such as road density. However, those values do not identify the exact parcels or areas that are inaccessible. Here, we present a model that assesses the economic suitability of each timbered parcel for wood-harvesting operations, including tree-felling and processing, and off- and on-road transport (hauling, based on the existing road network. The entire wood supply chain from forest (standing trees to a virtual pile at the border of the planning unit was captured. This method was particularly designed for steep terrain and was tested in the Canton of Grisons in Switzerland. Compared with classical approaches, such as the road density concept, which only deliver average values, this new method enables planners to assess the development of a road network in a spatially explicit manner and to easily identify the reason and the location of shortcomings in the road network. Moreover, while other related spatially explicit approaches focus only on harvesting operations, the assessment method proposed here also includes limitations (road standards of the road network.

  3. Spatially explicit modeling of particulate nutrient flux in Large global rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Mayorga, E.; Harrison, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Water, sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes along river networks have undergone considerable alterations in response to anthropogenic and climatic changes, with significant consequences to infrastructure, agriculture, water security, ecology and geomorphology worldwide. However, in a global setting, these changes in fluvial fluxes and their spatial and temporal characteristics are poorly constrained, due to the limited availability of continuous and long-term observations. We present results from a new global-scale particulate modeling framework (WBMsedNEWS) that combines the Global NEWS watershed nutrient export model with the spatially distributed WBMsed water and sediment model. We compare the model predictions against multiple observational datasets. The results indicate that the model is able to accurately predict particulate nutrient (Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Organic Carbon) fluxes on an annual time scale. Analysis of intra-basin nutrient dynamics and fluxes to global oceans is presented.

  4. Gap-filling a spatially explicit plant trait database: comparing imputation methods and different levels of environmental information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poyatos, Rafael; Sus, Oliver; Badiella, Llorenç; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi

    2018-05-01

    The ubiquity of missing data in plant trait databases may hinder trait-based analyses of ecological patterns and processes. Spatially explicit datasets with information on intraspecific trait variability are rare but offer great promise in improving our understanding of functional biogeography. At the same time, they offer specific challenges in terms of data imputation. Here we compare statistical imputation approaches, using varying levels of environmental information, for five plant traits (leaf biomass to sapwood area ratio, leaf nitrogen content, maximum tree height, leaf mass per area and wood density) in a spatially explicit plant trait dataset of temperate and Mediterranean tree species (Ecological and Forest Inventory of Catalonia, IEFC, dataset for Catalonia, north-east Iberian Peninsula, 31 900 km2). We simulated gaps at different missingness levels (10-80 %) in a complete trait matrix, and we used overall trait means, species means, k nearest neighbours (kNN), ordinary and regression kriging, and multivariate imputation using chained equations (MICE) to impute missing trait values. We assessed these methods in terms of their accuracy and of their ability to preserve trait distributions, multi-trait correlation structure and bivariate trait relationships. The relatively good performance of mean and species mean imputations in terms of accuracy masked a poor representation of trait distributions and multivariate trait structure. Species identity improved MICE imputations for all traits, whereas forest structure and topography improved imputations for some traits. No method performed best consistently for the five studied traits, but, considering all traits and performance metrics, MICE informed by relevant ecological variables gave the best results. However, at higher missingness (> 30 %), species mean imputations and regression kriging tended to outperform MICE for some traits. MICE informed by relevant ecological variables allowed us to fill the gaps in

  5. Gap-filling a spatially explicit plant trait database: comparing imputation methods and different levels of environmental information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Poyatos

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The ubiquity of missing data in plant trait databases may hinder trait-based analyses of ecological patterns and processes. Spatially explicit datasets with information on intraspecific trait variability are rare but offer great promise in improving our understanding of functional biogeography. At the same time, they offer specific challenges in terms of data imputation. Here we compare statistical imputation approaches, using varying levels of environmental information, for five plant traits (leaf biomass to sapwood area ratio, leaf nitrogen content, maximum tree height, leaf mass per area and wood density in a spatially explicit plant trait dataset of temperate and Mediterranean tree species (Ecological and Forest Inventory of Catalonia, IEFC, dataset for Catalonia, north-east Iberian Peninsula, 31 900 km2. We simulated gaps at different missingness levels (10–80 % in a complete trait matrix, and we used overall trait means, species means, k nearest neighbours (kNN, ordinary and regression kriging, and multivariate imputation using chained equations (MICE to impute missing trait values. We assessed these methods in terms of their accuracy and of their ability to preserve trait distributions, multi-trait correlation structure and bivariate trait relationships. The relatively good performance of mean and species mean imputations in terms of accuracy masked a poor representation of trait distributions and multivariate trait structure. Species identity improved MICE imputations for all traits, whereas forest structure and topography improved imputations for some traits. No method performed best consistently for the five studied traits, but, considering all traits and performance metrics, MICE informed by relevant ecological variables gave the best results. However, at higher missingness (> 30 %, species mean imputations and regression kriging tended to outperform MICE for some traits. MICE informed by relevant ecological variables

  6. A common framework for conservation planning: Linking individual and metapopulation models [Chapter 7

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry R. Noon; Kevin S. McKelvey

    1996-01-01

    Many populations exhibit pronounced spatial structure: dispersed areas of high population density embedded in areas of low density, with population centers connected through dispersal. This recognition has led many conservation biologists to embrace the metapopulation concept (Levins 1970) as the appropriate paradigm for reserve design structures (reviewed in Hanski...

  7. Agro-hydrology and multi temporal high resolution remote sensing: toward an explicit spatial processes calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrant, S.; Gascoin, S.; Veloso, A.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Claverie, M.; Rivalland, V.; Dedieu, G.; Demarez, V.; Ceschia, E.; Probst, J.-L.; Durand, P.; Bustillo, V.

    2014-07-01

    The recent and forthcoming availability of high resolution satellite image series offers new opportunities in agro-hydrological research and modeling. We investigated the perspective offered by improving the crop growth dynamic simulation using the distributed agro-hydrological model, Topography based Nitrogen transfer and Transformation (TNT2), using LAI map series derived from 105 Formosat-2 (F2) images during the period 2006-2010. The TNT2 model (Beaujouan et al., 2002), calibrated with discharge and in-stream nitrate fluxes for the period 1985-2001, was tested on the 2006-2010 dataset (climate, land use, agricultural practices, discharge and nitrate fluxes at the outlet). A priori agricultural practices obtained from an extensive field survey such as seeding date, crop cultivar, and fertilizer amount were used as input variables. Continuous values of LAI as a function of cumulative daily temperature were obtained at the crop field level by fitting a double logistic equation against discrete satellite-derived LAI. Model predictions of LAI dynamics with a priori input parameters showed an temporal shift with observed LAI profiles irregularly distributed in space (between field crops) and time (between years). By re-setting seeding date at the crop field level, we proposed an optimization method to minimize efficiently this temporal shift and better fit the crop growth against the spatial observations as well as crop production. This optimization of simulated LAI has a negligible impact on water budget at the catchment scale (1 mm yr-1 in average) but a noticeable impact on in-stream nitrogen fluxes (around 12%) which is of interest considering nitrate stream contamination issues and TNT2 model objectives. This study demonstrates the contribution of forthcoming high spatial and temporal resolution products of Sentinel-2 satellite mission in improving agro-hydrological modeling by constraining the spatial representation of crop productivity.

  8. The shift from plant-plant facilitation to competition under severe water deficit is spatially explicit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Michael J; Pugnaire, Francisco I; Armas, Cristina; Rodríguez-Echeverría, Susana; Schöb, Christian

    2017-04-01

    The stress-gradient hypothesis predicts a higher frequency of facilitative interactions as resource limitation increases. Under severe resource limitation, it has been suggested that facilitation may revert to competition, and identifying the presence as well as determining the magnitude of this shift is important for predicting the effect of climate change on biodiversity and plant community dynamics. In this study, we perform a meta-analysis to compare temporal differences of species diversity and productivity under a nurse plant ( Retama sphaerocarpa ) with varying annual rainfall quantity to test the effect of water limitation on facilitation. Furthermore, we assess spatial differences in the herbaceous community under nurse plants in situ during a year with below-average rainfall. We found evidence that severe rainfall deficit reduced species diversity and plant productivity under nurse plants relative to open areas. Our results indicate that the switch from facilitation to competition in response to rainfall quantity is nonlinear. The magnitude of this switch depended on the aspect around the nurse plant. Hotter south aspects under nurse plants resulted in negative effects on beneficiary species, while the north aspect still showed facilitation. Combined, these results emphasize the importance of spatial heterogeneity under nurse plants for mediating species loss under reduced precipitation, as predicted by future climate change scenarios. However, the decreased water availability expected under climate change will likely reduce overall facilitation and limit the role of nurse plants as refugia, amplifying biodiversity loss.

  9. Effects of Lead Exposure, Environmental Conditions, and Metapopulation Processes on Population Dynamics of Spectacled Eiders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.; Petersen, Margaret; Rockwell, Robert F.

    2016-01-01

    subpopulation is independent and that future management actions may be improved through a metapopulation framework. For example, management actions could include displacement of breeding females from"sink" areas that reduce the growth potential of the population as a whole. However, this action is contingent upon dispersal among local populations, for which there is limited information. Thus, we recommend that researchers examine dispersal behavior among areas on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in western Alaska. The metapopulation framework could also be applied at the rangewide scale to address the density-dependent limitation of available polynya habitat during winter that may limit the recovery of small subpopulations, such as that on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Reductions in other subpopulations may be necessary to ensure an increase in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta population. Thus, we recommend that managers consider the interpopulation dynamics of spectacled eiders at different spatial scales in future management actions.

  10. Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

    2013-12-01

    The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although

  11. Integrating spatially explicit indices of abundance and habitat quality: an applied example for greater sage-grouse management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S; Casazza, Michael L; Ricca, Mark A; Brussee, Brianne E; Blomberg, Erik J; Gustafson, K Benjamin; Overton, Cory T; Davis, Dawn M; Niell, Lara E; Espinosa, Shawn P; Gardner, Scott C; Delehanty, David J

    2016-02-01

    Predictive species distributional models are a cornerstone of wildlife conservation planning. Constructing such models requires robust underpinning science that integrates formerly disparate data types to achieve effective species management.Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus , hereafter 'sage-grouse' populations are declining throughout sagebrush-steppe ecosystems in North America, particularly within the Great Basin, which heightens the need for novel management tools that maximize the use of available information.Herein, we improve upon existing species distribution models by combining information about sage-grouse habitat quality, distribution and abundance from multiple data sources. To measure habitat, we created spatially explicit maps depicting habitat selection indices (HSI) informed by >35 500 independent telemetry locations from >1600 sage-grouse collected over 15 years across much of the Great Basin. These indices were derived from models that accounted for selection at different spatial scales and seasons. A region-wide HSI was calculated using the HSI surfaces modelled for 12 independent subregions and then demarcated into distinct habitat quality classes.We also employed a novel index to describe landscape patterns of sage-grouse abundance and space use (AUI). The AUI is a probabilistic composite of the following: (i) breeding density patterns based on the spatial configuration of breeding leks and associated trends in male attendance; and (ii) year-round patterns of space use indexed by the decreasing probability of use with increasing distance to leks. The continuous AUI surface was then reclassified into two classes representing high and low/no use and abundance. Synthesis and application s. Using the example of sage-grouse, we demonstrate how the joint application of indices of habitat selection, abundance and space use derived from multiple data sources yields a composite map that can guide effective allocation of management

  12. Integrating spatially explicit indices of abundance and habitat quality: an applied example for greater sage-grouse management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Ricca, Mark A.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Overton, Cory T.; Davis, Dawn M.; Niell, Lara E.; Espinosa, Shawn P.; Gardner, Scott C.; Delehanty, David J.

    2016-01-01

    Predictive species distributional models are a cornerstone of wildlife conservation planning. Constructing such models requires robust underpinning science that integrates formerly disparate data types to achieve effective species management. Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter “sage-grouse” populations are declining throughout sagebrush-steppe ecosystems in North America, particularly within the Great Basin, which heightens the need for novel management tools that maximize use of available information. Herein, we improve upon existing species distribution models by combining information about sage-grouse habitat quality, distribution, and abundance from multiple data sources. To measure habitat, we created spatially explicit maps depicting habitat selection indices (HSI) informed by > 35 500 independent telemetry locations from > 1600 sage-grouse collected over 15 years across much of the Great Basin. These indices were derived from models that accounted for selection at different spatial scales and seasons. A region-wide HSI was calculated using the HSI surfaces modelled for 12 independent subregions and then demarcated into distinct habitat quality classes. We also employed a novel index to describe landscape patterns of sage-grouse abundance and space use (AUI). The AUI is a probabilistic composite of: (i) breeding density patterns based on the spatial configuration of breeding leks and associated trends in male attendance; and (ii) year-round patterns of space use indexed by the decreasing probability of use with increasing distance to leks. The continuous AUI surface was then reclassified into two classes representing high and low/no use and abundance. Synthesis and applications. Using the example of sage-grouse, we demonstrate how the joint application of indices of habitat selection, abundance, and space use derived from multiple data sources yields a composite map that can guide effective allocation of management intensity across

  13. Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Prince, Stephen D.

    2007-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations use data from multiple disciplines to assess food insecurity of communities and regions in less-developed parts of the World. In this paper we integrate several indicators that are available to enhance the information for preparation for and responses to food security emergencies. The assessment uses a price model based on the relationship between the suitability of the growing season and market prices for coarse grain. The model is then used to create spatially continuous maps of millet prices. The model is applied to the dry central and northern areas of West Africa, using satellite-derived vegetation indices for the entire region. By coupling the model with vegetation data estimated for one to four months into the future, maps are created of a leading indicator of potential price movements. It is anticipated that these maps can be used to enable early warning of famine and for planning appropriate responses.

  14. Spatially explicit fate factors of waterborne nitrogen emissions at the global scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Mayorga, Emilio; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2017-01-01

    water. Spatial aggregation of the FFs at the continental level decreases this variation to 1 order of magnitude or less for all routes. Coastal water residence time was found to show inconsistency and scarcity of literature sources. Improvement of data quality for this parameter is suggested......Purpose: Marine eutrophication impacts due to waterborne nitrogen (N) emissions may vary significantly with their type and location. The environmental fate of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) forms is essential to understand the impacts they may trigger in receiving coastal waters. Current life...... and river basin resolution. Methods: The FF modelling work includes DIN removal processes in both inland (soil and river) and marine compartments. Model input parameters are the removal coefficients extracted from the Global NEWS 2-DIN model and residence time of receiving coastal waters. The resulting FFs...

  15. Reducing fertilizer-nitrogen losses from rowcrop landscapes: Insights and implications from a spatially explicit watershed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLellan, Eileen; Schilling, Keith; Robertson, Dale M.

    2015-01-01

    We present conceptual and quantitative models that predict changes in fertilizer-derived nitrogen delivery from rowcrop landscapes caused by agricultural conservation efforts implemented to reduce nutrient inputs and transport and increase nutrient retention in the landscape. To evaluate the relative importance of changes in the sources, transport, and sinks of fertilizer-derived nitrogen across a region, we use the spatially explicit SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes watershed model to map the distribution, at the small watershed scale within the Upper Mississippi-Ohio River Basin (UMORB), of: (1) fertilizer inputs; (2) nutrient attenuation during delivery of those inputs to the UMORB outlet; and (3) nitrogen export from the UMORB outlet. Comparing these spatial distributions suggests that the amount of fertilizer input and degree of nutrient attenuation are both important in determining the extent of nitrogen export. From a management perspective, this means that agricultural conservation efforts to reduce nitrogen export would benefit by: (1) expanding their focus to include activities that restore and enhance nutrient processing in these highly altered landscapes; and (2) targeting specific types of best management practices to watersheds where they will be most valuable. Doing so successfully may result in a shift in current approaches to conservation planning, outreach, and funding.

  16. Spatially explicit modeling of blackbird abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forcey, Greg M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Linz, George M.; McKann, Patrick C.; Crimmins, Shawn M.

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of factors influencing animal abundance is important to wildlife biologists developing management plans. This is especially true for economically important species such as blackbirds (Icteridae), which cause more than $100 million in crop damages annually in the United States. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the National Land Cover Dataset, and the National Climatic Data Center, we modeled effects of regional environmental variables on relative abundance of 3 blackbird species (red-winged blackbird,Agelaius phoeniceus; yellow-headed blackbird, Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus; common grackle, Quiscalus quiscula) in the Prairie Pothole Region of the central United States. We evaluated landscape covariates at 3 logarithmically related spatial scales (1,000 ha, 10,000 ha, and 100,000 ha) and modeled weather variables at the 100,000-ha scale. We constructed models a priori using information from published habitat associations. We fit models with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both landscape and weather variables contributed strongly to predicting blackbird relative abundance (95% credibility interval did not overlap 0). Variables with the strongest associations with blackbird relative abundance were the percentage of wetland area and precipitation amount from the year before bird surveys were conducted. The influence of spatial scale appeared small—models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset. This large-scale study elucidated regional effects of weather and landscape variables, suggesting that management strategies aimed at reducing damages caused by these species should consider the broader landscape, including weather effects, because such factors may outweigh the influence of localized conditions or site-specific management actions. The regional species distributional models we developed for blackbirds provide a tool for understanding these broader

  17. An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling: the lulcc R package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.

    2015-10-01

    We present the lulcc software package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of alternative models; and (3) additional software is required because existing applications frequently perform only the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a data set included with the package. It is envisaged that lulcc will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment.

  18. Analyzing key constraints to biogas production from crop residues and manure in the EU—A spatially explicit model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, U. Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a spatially explicit method for making regional estimates of the potential for biogas production from crop residues and manure, accounting for key technical, biochemical, environmental and economic constraints. Methods for making such estimates are important as biofuels from agricultural residues are receiving increasing policy support from the EU and major biogas producers, such as Germany and Italy, in response to concerns over unintended negative environmental and social impacts of conventional biofuels. This analysis comprises a spatially explicit estimate of crop residue and manure production for the EU at 250 m resolution, and a biogas production model accounting for local constraints such as the sustainable removal of residues, transportation of substrates, and the substrates’ biochemical suitability for anaerobic digestion. In our base scenario, the EU biogas production potential from crop residues and manure is about 0.7 EJ/year, nearly double the current EU production of biogas from agricultural substrates, most of which does not come from residues or manure. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the model shows that the potential could easily be 50% higher or lower, depending on the stringency of economic, technical and biochemical constraints. We find that the potential is particularly sensitive to constraints on the substrate mixtures’ carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and dry matter concentration. Hence, the potential to produce biogas from crop residues and manure in the EU depends to large extent on the possibility to overcome the challenges associated with these substrates, either by complementing them with suitable co-substrates (e.g. household waste and energy crops), or through further development of biogas technology (e.g. pretreatment of substrates and recirculation of effluent). PMID:28141827

  19. Analyzing key constraints to biogas production from crop residues and manure in the EU-A spatially explicit model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einarsson, Rasmus; Persson, U Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a spatially explicit method for making regional estimates of the potential for biogas production from crop residues and manure, accounting for key technical, biochemical, environmental and economic constraints. Methods for making such estimates are important as biofuels from agricultural residues are receiving increasing policy support from the EU and major biogas producers, such as Germany and Italy, in response to concerns over unintended negative environmental and social impacts of conventional biofuels. This analysis comprises a spatially explicit estimate of crop residue and manure production for the EU at 250 m resolution, and a biogas production model accounting for local constraints such as the sustainable removal of residues, transportation of substrates, and the substrates' biochemical suitability for anaerobic digestion. In our base scenario, the EU biogas production potential from crop residues and manure is about 0.7 EJ/year, nearly double the current EU production of biogas from agricultural substrates, most of which does not come from residues or manure. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the model shows that the potential could easily be 50% higher or lower, depending on the stringency of economic, technical and biochemical constraints. We find that the potential is particularly sensitive to constraints on the substrate mixtures' carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and dry matter concentration. Hence, the potential to produce biogas from crop residues and manure in the EU depends to large extent on the possibility to overcome the challenges associated with these substrates, either by complementing them with suitable co-substrates (e.g. household waste and energy crops), or through further development of biogas technology (e.g. pretreatment of substrates and recirculation of effluent).

  20. Spatially explicit simulation of hydrologically controlled carbon and nitrogen cycles and associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Ju, Weimin

    2009-06-01

    Ecosystem models that simulate biogeochemical processes usually ignore hydrological controls that govern them. It is quite possible that topographically driven water fluxes significantly influence the spatial distribution of C sources and sinks because of their large contribution to the local water balance. To investigate this, we simulated biogeochemical processes along with the associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem using a spatially explicit hydroecological model, boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS)-TerrainLab V2.0, that has a tight coupling of ecophysiological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes. First, the simulated dynamics of snowpack, soil temperature, net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and total ecosystem respiration (TER) were validated with high-frequency measurements for 2 years. The model was able to explain 80% of the variability in NEP and 84% of the variability in TER. Further, we investigated the influence of topographically driven subsurface base flow on soil C and N cycling and on the spatiotemporal patterns of C sources and sinks using three hydrological modeling scenarios that differed in hydrological conceptualizations. In general, the scenarios that had nonexplicit hydrological representation overestimated NEP, as opposed to the scenario that had an explicit (realistic) representation. The key processes controlling the NEP differences were attributed to the combined effects of variations in photosynthesis (due to changes in stomatal conductance and nitrogen (N) availability), heterotrophic respiration, and autotrophic respiration, all of which occur simultaneously affecting NEP. Feedback relationships were also found to exacerbate the differences. We identified six types of NEP differences (biases), of which the most commonly found was due to an underestimation of the existing C sources, highlighting the vulnerability of regional-scale ecosystem models that ignore hydrological processes.

  1. Analyzing key constraints to biogas production from crop residues and manure in the EU-A spatially explicit model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasmus Einarsson

    Full Text Available This paper presents a spatially explicit method for making regional estimates of the potential for biogas production from crop residues and manure, accounting for key technical, biochemical, environmental and economic constraints. Methods for making such estimates are important as biofuels from agricultural residues are receiving increasing policy support from the EU and major biogas producers, such as Germany and Italy, in response to concerns over unintended negative environmental and social impacts of conventional biofuels. This analysis comprises a spatially explicit estimate of crop residue and manure production for the EU at 250 m resolution, and a biogas production model accounting for local constraints such as the sustainable removal of residues, transportation of substrates, and the substrates' biochemical suitability for anaerobic digestion. In our base scenario, the EU biogas production potential from crop residues and manure is about 0.7 EJ/year, nearly double the current EU production of biogas from agricultural substrates, most of which does not come from residues or manure. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the model shows that the potential could easily be 50% higher or lower, depending on the stringency of economic, technical and biochemical constraints. We find that the potential is particularly sensitive to constraints on the substrate mixtures' carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and dry matter concentration. Hence, the potential to produce biogas from crop residues and manure in the EU depends to large extent on the possibility to overcome the challenges associated with these substrates, either by complementing them with suitable co-substrates (e.g. household waste and energy crops, or through further development of biogas technology (e.g. pretreatment of substrates and recirculation of effluent.

  2. Modeling spatially explicit fire impact on gross primary production in interior Alaska using satellite images coupled with eddy covariance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shengli; Liu, Heping; Dahal, Devendra; Jin, Suming; Welp, Lisa R.; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shuguang

    2013-01-01

    In interior Alaska, wildfires change gross primary production (GPP) after the initial disturbance. The impact of fires on GPP is spatially heterogeneous, which is difficult to evaluate by limited point-based comparisons or is insufficient to assess by satellite vegetation index. The direct prefire and postfire comparison is widely used, but the recovery identification may become biased due to interannual climate variability. The objective of this study is to propose a method to quantify the spatially explicit GPP change caused by fires and succession. We collected three Landsat images acquired on 13 July 2004, 5 August 2004, and 6 September 2004 to examine the GPP recovery of burned area from 1987 to 2004. A prefire Landsat image acquired in 1986 was used to reconstruct satellite images assuming that the fires of 1987–2004 had not occurred. We used a light-use efficiency model to estimate the GPP. This model was driven by maximum light-use efficiency (Emax) and fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR). We applied this model to two scenarios (i.e., an actual postfire scenario and an assuming-no-fire scenario), where the changes in Emax and FPAR were taken into account. The changes in Emax were represented by the change in land cover of evergreen needleleaf forest, deciduous broadleaf forest, and shrub/grass mixed, whose Emax was determined from three fire chronosequence flux towers as 1.1556, 1.3336, and 0.5098 gC/MJ PAR. The changes in FPAR were inferred from NDVI change between the actual postfire NDVI and the reconstructed NDVI. After GPP quantification for July, August, and September 2004, we calculated the difference between the two scenarios in absolute and percent GPP changes. Our results showed rapid recovery of GPP post-fire with a 24% recovery immediately after burning and 43% one year later. For the fire scars with an age range of 2–17 years, the recovery rate ranged from 54% to 95%. In addition to the averaging

  3. Modeling spatially- and temporally-explicit water stress indices for use in life cycle assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, L.; Venkatesh, A.; Karuppiah, R.; Usadi, A.; Pfister, S.; Hellweg, S.

    2013-12-01

    Water scarcity is a regional issue in many areas across the world, and can affect human health and ecosystems locally. Water stress indices (WSIs) have been developed as quantitative indicators of such scarcities - examples include the Falkenmark indicator, Social Water Stress Index, and the Water Supply Stress Index1. Application of these indices helps us understand water supply and demand risks for multiple users, including those in the agricultural, industrial, residential and commercial sectors. Pfister et al.2 developed a method to calculate WSIs that were used to estimate characterization factors (CFs) in order to quantify environmental impacts of freshwater consumption within a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. Global WSIs were based on data from the WaterGAP model3, and presented as annual averages for watersheds. Since water supply and demand varies regionally and temporally, the resolution used in Pfister et al. does not effectively differentiate between seasonal and permanent water scarcity. This study aims to improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the water scarcity calculations used to estimate WSIs and CFs. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)4 hydrological model to properly simulate water supply in different world regions with high spatial and temporal resolution, and coupled it with water use data from WaterGAP3 and Pfister et al.5. Input data to SWAT included weather, land use, soil characteristics and a digital elevation model (DEM), all from publicly available global data sets. Potential evapotranspiration, which affects water supply, was determined using an improved Priestley-Taylor approach. In contrast to most other hydrological studies, large reservoirs, water consumption and major water transfers were simulated. The model was calibrated against observed monthly discharge, actual evapotranspiration, and snow water equivalents wherever appropriate. Based on these simulations, monthly WSIs were calculated for a few

  4. Spatially explicit feedbacks between seagrass meadow structure, sediment and light: Habitat suitability for seagrass growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Joel; D'Odorico, Paul; McGlathery, Karen; Wiberg, Patricia L.

    2016-01-01

    In shallow coastal bays where nutrient loading and riverine inputs are low, turbidity, and the consequent light environment are controlled by resuspension of bed sediments due to wind-waves and tidal currents. High sediment resuspension and low light environments can limit benthic primary productivity; however, both currents and waves are affected by the presence of benthic plants such as seagrass. This feedback between the presence of benthic primary producers such as seagrass and the consequent light environment has been predicted to induce bistable dynamics locally. However, these vegetated areas influence a larger area than they footprint, including a barren adjacent downstream area which exhibits reduced shear stresses. Here we explore through modeling how the patchy structure of seagrass meadows on a landscape may affect sediment resuspension and the consequent light environment due to the presence of this sheltered region. Heterogeneous vegetation covers comprising a mosaic of randomly distributed patches were generated to investigate the effect of patch modified hydrodynamics. Actual cover of vegetation on the landscape was used to facilitate comparisons across landscape realizations. Hourly wave and current shear stresses on the landscape along with suspended sediment concentration and light attenuation characteristics were then calculated and spatially averaged to examine how actual cover and mean water depth affect the bulk sediment and light environment. The results indicate that an effective cover, which incorporates the sheltering area, has important controls on the distributions of shear stress, suspended sediment, light environment, and consequent seagrass habitat suitability. Interestingly, an optimal habitat occurs within a depth range where, if actual cover is reduced past some threshold, the bulk light environment would no longer favor seagrass growth.

  5. Crucial nesting habitat for gunnison sage-grouse: A spatially explicit hierarchical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldridge, Cameron L.; Saher, D.J.; Childers, T.M.; Stahlnecker, K.E.; Bowen, Z.H.

    2012-01-01

    Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of special concern and is currently considered a candidate species under Endangered Species Act. Careful management is therefore required to ensure that suitable habitat is maintained, particularly because much of the species' current distribution is faced with exurban development pressures. We assessed hierarchical nest site selection patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse inhabiting the western portion of the Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA, at multiple spatial scales, using logistic regression-based resource selection functions. Models were selected using Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c) and predictive surfaces were generated using model averaged relative probabilities. Landscape-scale factors that had the most influence on nest site selection included the proportion of sagebrush cover >5%, mean productivity, and density of 2 wheel-drive roads. The landscape-scale predictive surface captured 97% of known Gunnison sage-grouse nests within the top 5 of 10 prediction bins, implicating 57% of the basin as crucial nesting habitat. Crucial habitat identified by the landscape model was used to define the extent for patch-scale modeling efforts. Patch-scale variables that had the greatest influence on nest site selection were the proportion of big sagebrush cover >10%, distance to residential development, distance to high volume paved roads, and mean productivity. This model accurately predicted independent nest locations. The unique hierarchical structure of our models more accurately captures the nested nature of habitat selection, and allowed for increased discrimination within larger landscapes of suitable habitat. We extrapolated the landscape-scale model to the entire Gunnison Basin because of conservation concerns for this species. We believe this predictive surface is a valuable tool which can be incorporated into land use and conservation planning as well the assessment of

  6. Spatially explicit measures of production of young alewives in Lake Michigan: Linkage between essential fish habitat and recruitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hook, Tomas O.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Brines, Shannon J.; Mason, Doran M.; Schwab, David J.; McCormick, Michael; Desorcie, Timothy J.

    2003-01-01

    The identification and protection of essential habitats for early life stages of fishes are necessary to sustain fish stocks. Essential fish habitat for early life stages may be defined as areas where fish densities, growth, survival, or production rates are relatively high. To identify critical habitats for young-of-year (YOY) alewives (Alosa pseud oharengus) in Lake Michigan, we integrated bioenergetics models with GIS (Geographic Information Systems) to generate spatially explicit estimates of potential population production (an index of habitat quality). These estimates were based upon YOY alewife bioenergetic growth rate potential and their salmonine predators’ consumptive demand. We compared estimates of potential population production to YOY alewife yield (an index of habitat importance). Our analysis suggested that during 1994–1995, YOY alewife habitat quality and yield varied widely throughout Lake Michigan. Spatial patterns of alewife yield were not significantly correlated to habitat quality. Various mechanisms (e.g., predator migrations, lake circulation patterns, alternative strategies) may preclude YOY alewives from concentrating in areas of high habitat quality in Lake Michigan.

  7. Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics at 0.25° horizontal resolution for forest bioenergy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherubini, F.

    2015-12-01

    Bioenergy is the most important renewable energy option in studies designed to align with future RCP projections, reaching approximately 250 EJ/yr in RCP2.6, 145 EJ/yr in RCP4.5 and 180 EJ/yr in RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. However, many questions enveloping the direct carbon cycle and climate response to bioenergy remain partially unexplored. Bioenergy systems are largely assessed under the default climate neutrality assumption and the time lag between CO2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO2 uptake by vegetation is usually ignored. Emission metrics of CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis and their quantification requires processing of a wide spectrum of modelled or observed local climate and forest conditions. On the other hand, emission metrics are widely used to aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.), but a spatially explicit analysis of emission metrics with global forest coverage is today lacking. Examples of emission metrics include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Here, we couple a global forest model, a heterotrophic respiration model, and a global climate model to produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy. We show their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the different RCP scenarios. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 (mean ± standard deviation), 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1 for GWP, GTP and aSET, respectively. We also present results aggregated at a grid, national and continental level. The metrics are found to correlate with the site-specific turnover times and local climate variables like annual mean temperature and precipitation. Simplified

  8. A High-Resolution Spatially Explicit Monte-Carlo Simulation Approach to Commercial and Residential Electricity and Water Demand Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morton, April M [ORNL; McManamay, Ryan A [ORNL; Nagle, Nicholas N [ORNL; Piburn, Jesse O [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL; Surendran Nair, Sujithkumar [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Abstract As urban areas continue to grow and evolve in a world of increasing environmental awareness, the need for high resolution spatially explicit estimates for energy and water demand has become increasingly important. Though current modeling efforts mark significant progress in the effort to better understand the spatial distribution of energy and water consumption, many are provided at a course spatial resolution or rely on techniques which depend on detailed region-specific data sources that are not publicly available for many parts of the U.S. Furthermore, many existing methods do not account for errors in input data sources and may therefore not accurately reflect inherent uncertainties in model outputs. We propose an alternative and more flexible Monte-Carlo simulation approach to high-resolution residential and commercial electricity and water consumption modeling that relies primarily on publicly available data sources. The method s flexible data requirement and statistical framework ensure that the model is both applicable to a wide range of regions and reflective of uncertainties in model results. Key words: Energy Modeling, Water Modeling, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Uncertainty Quantification Acknowledgment This manuscript has been authored by employees of UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. Accordingly, the United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.

  9. Large scale spatially explicit modeling of blue and green water dynamics in a temperate mid-latitude basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Liuying; Rajib, Adnan; Merwade, Venkatesh

    2018-07-01

    Looking only at climate change impacts provides partial information about a changing hydrologic regime. Understanding the spatio-temporal nature of change in hydrologic processes, and the explicit contributions from both climate and land use drivers, holds more practical value for water resources management and policy intervention. This study presents a comprehensive assessment on the spatio-temporal trend of Blue Water (BW) and Green Water (GW) in a 490,000 km2 temperate mid-latitude basin (Ohio River Basin) over the past 80 years (1935-2014), and from thereon, quantifies the combined as well as relative contributions of climate and land use changes. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is adopted to simulate hydrologic fluxes. Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen statistical tests are performed on the modeled outputs to detect respectively the trend and magnitude of changes at three different spatial scales - the entire basin, regional level, and sub-basin level. Despite the overall volumetric increase of both BW and GW in the entire basin, changes in their annual average values during the period of simulation reveal a distinctive spatial pattern. GW has increased significantly in the upper and lower parts of the basin, which can be related to the prominent land use change in those areas. BW has increased significantly only in the lower part, likely being associated with the notable precipitation change there. Furthermore, the simulation under a time-varying climate but constant land use scenario identifies climate change in the Ohio River Basin to be influential on BW, while the impact is relatively nominal on GW; whereas, land use change increases GW remarkably, but is counterproductive on BW. The approach to quantify combined/relative effects of climate and land use change as shown in this study can be replicated to understand BW-GW dynamics in similar large basins around the globe.

  10. Spatially explicit genetic structure in the freshwater sponge Ephydatia fluviatilis (Linnaeus, 1759 within the framework of the monopolisation hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Livia Lucentini

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available An apparent paradox is known for crustaceans, rotifers and bryozoans living in inland small water bodies: a potential for wide distribution due to the presence of resting stages is coupled with marked genetic differences between nearby water bodies, with enclave distributions masking clear phylogeographic patterns. According to the monopolisation hypothesis, this is due to the accumulation of resting stages, monopolising each water body. Freshwater sponges could represent a useful system to assess the generality of the mo- nopolisation hypothesis: these organisms i live in the same habitats as crustaceans, rotifers and bryozoans, ii produce resting stages that can accumulate, and iii have indeed a wide distribution. Currently, no studies on spatially explicit genetic differentiation on fresh- water sponges are available. The aim of the present study is to provide additional empirical evidence in support of the generality of the scenario for small aquatic animals with resting stages by analysing genetic diversity at different spatial scales for an additional model system, the freshwater sponge ephydatia fluviatilis (Linnaeus, 1759. We expected that system genetic variability would follow enclave distributions, no clear phylogeographical patterns would be present, and nearby unconnected water bodies would show markedly different populations for this new model too. We analysed the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer regions 5.8S-ITS2-28S, the D3 domain of 28S subunit, the mitochondrial Cytochrome c Oxidase I (COI and ten specific microsatellite markers of nine Italian and one Hungarian populations. Mitochondrial and nuclear sequences showed no or very low genetic polymorphism, whereas high levels of differentiation among populations and a significant polymorphism were observed using microsatellites. Microsatellite loci also showed a high proportion of private alleles for each population and an overall correlation between geographic and genetic

  11. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster–Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty–sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights. PMID:25843987

  12. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

  13. The “Destabilizing” Effect of Cannibalism in a Spatially Explicit Three-Species Age Structured Predator-Prey Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aladeen Al Basheer

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Cannibalism, the act of killing and consumption of conspecifics, is generally considered to be a stabilising process in ODE models of predator-prey systems. On the other hand, Sun et al. were the first to show that cannibalism can cause Turing instability, in the classical Rosenzweig-McArthur two-species PDE model, which is an impossibility without cannibalism. Magnússon’s classic work is the first to show that cannibalism in a structured three-species predator-prey ODE model can actually be destabilising. In the current manuscript we consider the PDE form of the three-species model proposed in Magnússon’s classic work. We prove that, in the absence of cannibalism, Turing instability is an impossibility in this model, for any range of parameters. However, the inclusion of cannibalism can cause Turing instability. Thus, to the best of our knowledge, we report the first cannibalism induced Turing instability result, in spatially explicit three-species age structured predator-prey systems. We also show that, in the classical ODE model proposed by Magnússon, cannibalism can act as a life boat mechanism, for the prey.

  14. Modeling the fate of nitrogen on the catchment scale using a spatially explicit hydro-biogeochemical simulation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klatt, S.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Kiese, R.; Haas, E.; Kraus, D.; Molina-Herrera, S. W.; Kraft, P.

    2015-12-01

    The continuous growth of the human population demands an equally growing supply for fresh water and food. As a result, available land for efficient agriculture is constantly diminishing which forces farmers to cultivate inferior croplands and intensify agricultural practices, e.g., increase the use of synthetic fertilizers. This intensification of marginal areas in particular will cause a dangerous rise in nitrate discharge into open waters or even drinking water resources. In order to reduce the amount of nitrate lost by surface runoff or lateral subsurface transport, bufferstrips have proved to be a valuable means. Current laws, however, promote rather static designs (i.e., width and usage) even though a multitude of factors, e.g., soil type, slope, vegetation and the nearby agricultural management, determines its effectiveness. We propose a spatially explicit modeling approach enabling to assess the effects of those factors on nitrate discharge from arable lands using the fully distributed hydrology model CMF coupled to the complex biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. Such a modeling scheme allows to observe the displacement of dissolved nutrients in both vertical and horizontal directions and serves to estimate both their uptake by the vegetated bufferstrip and loss to the environment. First results indicate a significant reduction of nitrate loss in the presence of a bufferstrip (2.5 m). We show effects induced by various buffer strip widths and plant cover on the nitrate retention.

  15. Hiding in Plain Sight: A Case for Cryptic Metapopulations in Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David C Kazyak

    Full Text Available A fundamental issue in the management and conservation of biodiversity is how to define a population. Spatially contiguous fish occupying a stream network have often been considered to represent a single, homogenous population. However, they may also represent multiple discrete populations, a single population with genetic isolation-by-distance, or a metapopulation. We used microsatellite DNA and a large-scale mark-recapture study to assess population structure in a spatially contiguous sample of Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis, a species of conservation concern. We found evidence for limited genetic exchange across small spatial scales and in the absence of barriers to physical movement. Mark-recapture and stationary passive integrated transponder antenna records demonstrated that fish from two tributaries very seldom moved into the opposite tributary, but movements between the tributaries and mainstem were more common. Using Bayesian genetic clustering, we identified two genetic groups that exhibited significantly different growth rates over three years of study, yet survival rates were very similar. Our study highlights the importance of considering the possibility of multiple genetically distinct populations occurring within spatially contiguous habitats, and suggests the existence of a cryptic metapopulation: a spatially continuous distribution of organisms exhibiting metapopulation-like behaviors.

  16. Classic metapopulations are rare among common beetle species from a naturally fragmented landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Don A; Kirkpatrick, Jamie B; McQuillan, Peter B; Bonham, Kevin J

    2010-01-01

    1. The general importance of metacommunity and metapopulation theories is poorly understood because few studies have examined responses of the suite of species that occupy the same fragmented landscape. In this study, we examined the importance of spatial ecological theories using a large-scale, naturally fragmented landscape. 2. We measured the occurrence and abundance of 44 common beetle species in 31 natural rainforest fragments in Tasmania, Australia. We tested for an effect on beetle distribution of geographic variables (patch area, patch isolation and amount of surrounding habitat) and of environmental variables based on plant species, after first accounting for spatial autocorrelation using principal coordinates of neighbour matrices. The environmental variables described a productivity gradient and a post-fire succession from eucalypt-dominated forest to late-successional rainforest. 3. Few species had distributions consistent with a metapopulation. However, the amount of surrounding habitat and patch isolation influenced the occurrence or abundance of 30% of beetle species, implying that dispersal into or out of patches was an important process. 4. Three species showed a distribution that could arise by interactions with dominant competitors or predators with higher occurrence in small patches. 5. Environmental effects were more commonly observed than spatial effects. Twenty-three per cent of species showed evidence of habitat-driven, deterministic metapopulations. Furthermore, almost half of the species were influenced by the plant succession or productivity gradient, including effects at the within-patch, patch and regional scales. The beetle succession involved an increase in the frequency of many species, and the addition of new species, with little evidence of species turnover. Niche-related ecological theory such as the species-sorting metacommunity theory was therefore the most broadly applicable concept. 6. We conclude that classic and source

  17. Spatially explicit multi-threat assessment of food tree species in Burkina Faso: A fine-scale approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannes Gaisberger

    Full Text Available Over the last decades agroforestry parklands in Burkina Faso have come under increasing demographic as well as climatic pressures, which are threatening indigenous tree species that contribute substantially to income generation and nutrition in rural households. Analyzing the threats as well as the species vulnerability to them is fundamental for priority setting in conservation planning. Guided by literature and local experts we selected 16 important food tree species (Acacia macrostachya, Acacia senegal, Adansonia digitata, Annona senegalensis, Balanites aegyptiaca, Bombax costatum, Boscia senegalensis, Detarium microcarpum, Lannea microcarpa, Parkia biglobosa, Sclerocarya birrea, Strychnos spinosa, Tamarindus indica, Vitellaria paradoxa, Ximenia americana, Ziziphus mauritiana and six key threats to them (overexploitation, overgrazing, fire, cotton production, mining and climate change. We developed a species-specific and spatially explicit approach combining freely accessible datasets, species distribution models (SDMs, climate models and expert survey results to predict, at fine scale, where these threats are likely to have the greatest impact. We find that all species face serious threats throughout much of their distribution in Burkina Faso and that climate change is predicted to be the most prevalent threat in the long term, whereas overexploitation and cotton production are the most important short-term threats. Tree populations growing in areas designated as 'highly threatened' due to climate change should be used as seed sources for ex situ conservation and planting in areas where future climate is predicting suitable habitats. Assisted regeneration is suggested for populations in areas where suitable habitat under future climate conditions coincides with high threat levels due to short-term threats. In the case of Vitellaria paradoxa, we suggest collecting seed along the northern margins of its distribution and considering assisted

  18. Spatially explicit groundwater vulnerability assessment to support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive – a practical approach with stakeholders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Berkhoff

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of the study presented in this paper was to develop an evaluation scheme which is suitable for spatially explicit groundwater vulnerability assessment according to the Water Framework Directive (WFD. Study area was the Hase river catchment, an area of about 3 000 km2 in north-west Germany which is dominated by livestock farming, in particular pig and poultry production. For the Hase river catchment, the first inventory of the WFD led to the conclusion that 98% of the catchment area is "unclear/unlikely" to reach a good groundwater status due to diffuse nitrogen emissions from agriculture. The groundwater vulnerability assessment was embedded in the PartizipA project ("Participative modelling, Actor and Ecosystem Analysis in Regions with Intensive Agriculture", www.partizipa.net, within which a so-called actors' platform was established in the study area. The objective of the participatory process was to investigate the effects of the WFD on agriculture as well as to discuss groundwater protection measures which are suitable for an integration in the programme of measures. The study was conducted according to the vulnerability assessment concept of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, considering sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity was computed using the DRASTIC index of natural groundwater pollution potential. Exposure (for a reference scenario was computed using the STOFFBILANZ nutrient model. Several regional studies were analysed to evaluate the adaptive capacity. From these studies it was concluded that the adaptive capacity in the Hase river catchment is very low due to the economic importance of the agricultural sector which will be significantly affected by groundwater protection measures. As a consequence, the adaptive capacity was not considered any more in the vulnerability assessment. A groundwater vulnerability evaluation scheme is presented which enjoys the advantage that both

  19. Multiple scales in metapopulations of public goods producers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Marianne; Frey, Erwin

    2018-04-01

    Multiple scales in metapopulations can give rise to paradoxical behavior: in a conceptual model for a public goods game, the species associated with a fitness cost due to the public good production can be stabilized in the well-mixed limit due to the mere existence of these scales. The scales in this model involve a length scale corresponding to separate patches, coupled by mobility, and separate time scales for reproduction and interaction with a local environment. Contrary to the well-mixed high mobility limit, we find that for low mobilities, the interaction rate progressively stabilizes this species due to stochastic effects, and that the formation of spatial patterns is not crucial for this stabilization.

  20. Structural complexity, movement bias, and metapopulation extinction risk in dendritic ecological networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2011-01-01

    Spatial complexity in metacommunities can be separated into 3 main components: size (i.e., number of habitat patches), spatial arrangement of habitat patches (network topology), and diversity of habitat patch types. Much attention has been paid to lattice-type networks, such as patch-based metapopulations, but interest in understanding ecological networks of alternative geometries is building. Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) include some increasingly threatened ecological systems, such as caves and streams. The restrictive architecture of dendritic ecological networks might have overriding implications for species persistence. I used a modeling approach to investigate how number and spatial arrangement of habitat patches influence metapopulation extinction risk in 2 DENs of different size and topology. Metapopulation persistence was higher in larger networks, but this relationship was mediated by network topology and the dispersal pathways used to navigate the network. Larger networks, especially those with greater topological complexity, generally had lower extinction risk than smaller and less-complex networks, but dispersal bias and magnitude affected the shape of this relationship. Applying these general results to real systems will require empirical data on the movement behavior of organisms and will improve our understanding of the implications of network complexity on population and community patterns and processes.

  1. Renewable Energy Production from Waste to Mitigate Climate Change and Counteract Soil Degradation - A Spatial Explicit Assessment for Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraxner, Florian; Yoshikawa, Kunio; Leduc, Sylvain; Fuss, Sabine; Aoki, Kentaro; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2014-05-01

    Waste production from urban areas is growing faster than urbanization itself, while at the same time urban areas are increasingly contributing substantial emissions causing climate change. Estimates indicate for urban residents a per capita solid waste (MSW) production of 1.2 kg per day, subject to further increase to 1.5 kg beyond 2025. Waste water and sewage production is estimated at about 260 liters per capita and day, also at increasing rates. Based on these figures, waste - including e.g. MSW, sewage and animal manure - can generally be assumed as a renewable resource with varying organic components and quantity. This paper demonstrates how new and innovative technologies in the field of Waste-to-Green Products can help in various ways not only to reduce costs for waste treatment, reduce the pressure on largely overloaded dump sites, and reduce also the effect of toxic materials at the landfill site and by that i.e. protect the groundwater. Moreover, Waste-to-Green Products can contribute actively to mitigating climate change through fossil fuel substitution and carbon sequestration while at the same time counteracting negative land use effects from other types of renewable energy and feedstock production through substitution. At the same time, the co-production and recycling of fertilizing elements and biochar can substantially counteract soil degradation and improve the soil organic carbon content of different land use types. The overall objective of this paper is to assess the total climate change mitigation potential of MSW, sewage and animal manure for Japan. A techno-economic approach is used to inform the policy discussion on the suitability of this substantial and sustainable mitigation option. We examine the spatial explicit technical mitigation potential from e.g. energy substitution and carbon sequestration through biochar in rural and urban Japan. For this exercise, processed information on respective Japanese waste production, energy demand

  2. A Spatially Explicit Approach for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of GIS-Multicriteria Landslide Susceptibility Mapping. GI_Forum 2013 – Creating the GISociety|

    OpenAIRE

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly being used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, decision making, as well as hazard mitigation plans. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are prone to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, the spatiality explicitly method is employed to assess the uncertainty associated with two methods of GIS-MCDA namely, Analytical Hierarchi...

  3. Fragments, extinction, and recolonization: The genetics of metapopulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael F. Antolin; Anna W. Schoettle

    2001-01-01

    The idea of a metapopulation - a group of local populations in a patchy habitat - recurs in both ecology and evolutionary biology. Although the metapopulation concept is at least 50-75 years old, it has recently resurged, as natural habitats become fragmented and are lost because of humans' use of resources. However, fragmentation is not the same as...

  4. Estimating black bear density in New Mexico using noninvasive genetic sampling coupled with spatially explicit capture-recapture methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, Matthew J.; Cain, James W.; Roemer, Gary W.; Gould, William R.

    2016-01-01

    During the 2004–2005 to 2015–2016 hunting seasons, the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish (NMDGF) estimated black bear abundance (Ursus americanus) across the state by coupling density estimates with the distribution of primary habitat generated by Costello et al. (2001). These estimates have been used to set harvest limits. For example, a density of 17 bears/100 km2 for the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains and 13.2 bears/100 km2 for the Sandia Mountains were used to set harvest levels. The advancement and widespread acceptance of non-invasive sampling and mark-recapture methods, prompted the NMDGF to collaborate with the New Mexico Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit and New Mexico State University to update their density estimates for black bear populations in select mountain ranges across the state.We established 5 study areas in 3 mountain ranges: the northern (NSC; sampled in 2012) and southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains (SSC; sampled in 2013), the Sandia Mountains (Sandias; sampled in 2014), and the northern (NSacs) and southern Sacramento Mountains (SSacs; both sampled in 2014). We collected hair samples from black bears using two concurrent non-invasive sampling methods, hair traps and bear rubs. We used a gender marker and a suite of microsatellite loci to determine the individual identification of hair samples that were suitable for genetic analysis. We used these data to generate mark-recapture encounter histories for each bear and estimated density in a spatially explicit capture-recapture framework (SECR). We constructed a suite of SECR candidate models using sex, elevation, land cover type, and time to model heterogeneity in detection probability and the spatial scale over which detection probability declines. We used Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc) to rank and select the most supported model from which we estimated density.We set 554 hair traps, 117 bear rubs and collected 4,083 hair

  5. Bacmeta: simulator for genomic evolution in bacterial metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipola, Aleksi; Marttinen, Pekka; Corander, Jukka

    2018-02-20

    The advent of genomic data from densely sampled bacterial populations has created a need for flexible simulators by which models and hypotheses can be efficiently investigated in the light of empirical observations. Bacmeta provides fast stochastic simulation of neutral evolution within a large collection of interconnected bacterial populations with completely adjustable connectivity network. Stochastic events of mutations, recombinations, insertions/deletions, migrations and microepidemics can be simulated in discrete non-overlapping generations with a Wright-Fisher model that operates on explicit sequence data of any desired genome length. Each model component, including locus, bacterial strain, population, and ultimately the whole metapopulation, is efficiently simulated using C ++ objects, and detailed metadata from each level can be acquired. The software can be executed in a cluster environment using simple textual input files, enabling, e.g., large-scale simulations and likelihood-free inference. Bacmeta is implemented with C ++ for Linux, Mac and Windows. It is available at https://bitbucket.org/aleksisipola/bacmeta under the BSD 3-clause license. aleksi.sipola@helsinki.fi, jukka.corander@medisin.uio.no. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  6. A spatially explicit hydro-ecological modeling framework (BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0): Model description and test in a boreal ecosystem in Eastern North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Margolis, Hank; Ju, Weimin; Sonnentag, Oliver; Giasson, Marc-André

    2009-04-01

    SummaryA spatially explicit, process-based hydro-ecological model, BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0, was developed to improve the representation of ecophysiological, hydro-ecological and biogeochemical processes of boreal ecosystems in a tightly coupled manner. Several processes unique to boreal ecosystems were implemented including the sub-surface lateral water fluxes, stratification of vegetation into distinct layers for explicit ecophysiological representation, inclusion of novel spatial upscaling strategies and biogeochemical processes. To account for preferential water fluxes common in humid boreal ecosystems, a novel scheme was introduced based on laboratory analyses. Leaf-scale ecophysiological processes were upscaled to canopy-scale by explicitly considering leaf physiological conditions as affected by light and water stress. The modified model was tested with 2 years of continuous measurements taken at the Eastern Old Black Spruce Site of the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network located in a humid boreal watershed in eastern Canada. Comparison of the simulated and measured ET, water-table depth (WTD), volumetric soil water content (VSWC) and gross primary productivity (GPP) revealed that BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0 simulates hydro-ecological processes with reasonable accuracy. The model was able to explain 83% of the ET, 92% of the GPP variability and 72% of the WTD dynamics. The model suggests that in humid ecosystems such as eastern North American boreal watersheds, topographically driven sub-surface baseflow is the main mechanism of soil water partitioning which significantly affects the local-scale hydrological conditions.

  7. Forest corridors maintain historical gene flow in a tiger metapopulation in the highlands of central India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sandeep; Dutta, Trishna; Maldonado, Jesús E; Wood, Thomas C; Panwar, Hemendra Singh; Seidensticker, John

    2013-09-22

    Understanding the patterns of gene flow of an endangered species metapopulation occupying a fragmented habitat is crucial for landscape-level conservation planning and devising effective conservation strategies. Tigers (Panthera tigris) are globally endangered and their populations are highly fragmented and exist in a few isolated metapopulations across their range. We used multi-locus genotypic data from 273 individual tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) from four tiger populations of the Satpura-Maikal landscape of central India to determine whether the corridors in this landscape are functional. This 45 000 km(2) landscape contains 17% of India's tiger population and 12% of its tiger habitat. We applied Bayesian and coalescent-based analyses to estimate contemporary and historical gene flow among these populations and to infer their evolutionary history. We found that the tiger metapopulation in central India has high rates of historical and contemporary gene flow. The tests for population history reveal that tigers populated central India about 10 000 years ago. Their population subdivision began about 1000 years ago and accelerated about 200 years ago owing to habitat fragmentation, leading to four spatially separated populations. These four populations have been in migration-drift equilibrium maintained by high gene flow. We found the highest rates of contemporary gene flow in populations that are connected by forest corridors. This information is highly relevant to conservation practitioners and policy makers, because deforestation, road widening and mining are imminent threats to these corridors.

  8. Exploring the Dynamic Mechanisms of Farmland Abandonment Based on a Spatially Explicit Economic Model for Environmental Sustainability: A Case Study in Jiangxi Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualin Xie

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Farmland abandonment has important impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem recovery, as well as food security and rural sustainable development. Due to rapid urbanization and industrialization, farmland abandonment has become an increasingly important problem in many countries, particularly in China. To promote sustainable land-use management and environmental sustainability, it is important to understand the socioeconomic causes and spatial patterns of farmland abandonment. In this study, we explored the dynamic mechanisms of farmland abandonment in Jiangxi province of China using a spatially explicit economical model. The results show that the variables associated with the agricultural products yield are significantly correlated with farmland abandonment. The increasing opportunity cost of farming labor is the main factor in farmland abandonment in conjunction with a rural labor shortage due to rural-to-urban population migration and regional industrialization. Farmlands are more likely to be abandoned in areas located far from the villages and towns due to higher transportation costs. Additionally, farmers with more land but lower net income are more likely to abandon poor-quality farmland. Our results support the hypothesis that farmland abandonment takes place in locations in which the costs of cultivation are high and the potential crop yield is low. In addition, our study also demonstrates that a spatially explicit economic model is necessary to distinguish between the main driving forces of farmland abandonment. Policy implications are also provided for potential future policy decisions.

  9. Modeling Behavior by Coastal River Otter (Lontra Canadensis in Response to Prey Availability in Prince William Sound, Alaska: A Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shannon E Albeke

    Full Text Available Effects of climate change on animal behavior and cascading ecosystem responses are rarely evaluated. In coastal Alaska, social river otters (Lontra Canadensis, largely males, cooperatively forage on schooling fish and use latrine sites to communicate group associations and dominance. Conversely, solitary otters, mainly females, feed on intertidal-demersal fish and display mutual avoidance via scent marking. This behavioral variability creates "hotspots" of nutrient deposition and affects plant productivity and diversity on the terrestrial landscape. Because the abundance of schooling pelagic fish is predicted to decline with climate change, we developed a spatially-explicit individual-based model (IBM of otter behavior and tested six scenarios based on potential shifts to distribution patterns of schooling fish. Emergent patterns from the IBM closely mimicked observed otter behavior and landscape use in the absence of explicit rules of intraspecific attraction or repulsion. Model results were most sensitive to rules regarding spatial memory and activity state following an encounter with a fish school. With declining availability of schooling fish, the number of social groups and the time simulated otters spent in the company of conspecifics declined. Concurrently, model results suggested an elevation of defecation rate, a 25% increase in nitrogen transport to the terrestrial landscape, and significant changes to the spatial distribution of "hotspots" with declines in schooling fish availability. However, reductions in availability of schooling fish could lead to declines in otter density over time.

  10. Landscape genetics of high mountain frog metapopulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, M.A.; Dezzani, R.; Pilliod, D.S.; Storfer, A.

    2010-01-01

    Explaining functional connectivity among occupied habitats is crucial for understanding metapopulation dynamics and species ecology. Landscape genetics has primarily focused on elucidating how ecological features between observations influence gene flow. Functional connectivity, however, may be the result of both these between-site (landscape resistance) landscape characteristics and at-site (patch quality) landscape processes that can be captured using network based models. We test hypotheses of functional connectivity that include both between-site and at-site landscape processes in metapopulations of Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) by employing a novel justification of gravity models for landscape genetics (eight microsatellite loci, 37 sites, n = 441). Primarily used in transportation and economic geography, gravity models are a unique approach as flow (e.g. gene flow) is explained as a function of three basic components: distance between sites, production/attraction (e.g. at-site landscape process) and resistance (e.g. between-site landscape process). The study system contains a network of nutrient poor high mountain lakes where we hypothesized a short growing season and complex topography between sites limit R. luteiventris gene flow. In addition, we hypothesized production of offspring is limited by breeding site characteristics such as the introduction of predatory fish and inherent site productivity. We found that R. luteiventris connectivity was negatively correlated with distance between sites, presence of predatory fish (at-site) and topographic complexity (between-site). Conversely, site productivity (as measured by heat load index, at-site) and growing season (as measured by frost-free period between-sites) were positively correlated with gene flow. The negative effect of predation and positive effect of site productivity, in concert with bottleneck tests, support the presence of source-sink dynamics. In conclusion, gravity models provide a

  11. Do you know where your fingers have been? Explicit knowledge of the spatial layout of the keyboard in skilled typists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xianyun; Crump, Matthew J C; Logan, Gordon D

    2010-06-01

    Two experiments evaluated skilled typists' ability to report knowledge about the layout of keys on a standard keyboard. In Experiment 1, subjects judged the relative direction of letters on the computer keyboard. One group of subjects was asked to imagine the keyboard, one group was allowed to look at the keyboard, and one group was asked to type the letter pair before judging relative direction. The imagine group had larger angular error and longer response time than both the look and touch groups. In Experiment 2, subjects placed one key relative to another. Again, the imagine group had larger angular error, larger distance error, and longer response time than the other groups. The two experiments suggest that skilled typists have poor explicit knowledge of key locations. The results are interpreted in terms of a model with two hierarchical parts in the system controlling typewriting.

  12. A Global and Spatially Explicit Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Consumptive Water Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junguo; Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Röckström, Johan; Abbaspour, Karim; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.

    2013-01-01

    Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security. PMID:23460901

  13. LANDIS 4.0 users guide. LANDIS: a spatially explicit model of forest landscape disturbance, management, and succession

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; Wei Li; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Bo Z. Shang; Eric J. Gustafson; David J. Mladenoff

    2005-01-01

    LANDIS 4.0 is new-generation software that simulates forest landscape change over large spatial and temporal scales. It is used to explore how disturbances, succession, and management interact to determine forest composition and pattern. Also describes software architecture, model assumptions and provides detailed instructions on the use of the model.

  14. A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junguo Liu

    Full Text Available Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term and the 2090s (long term, respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell. Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.

  15. The role of spatially explicit models in land-use change research: a case study for cropping patterns in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.; Veldkamp, A.

    2001-01-01

    Single research methodologies do not suffice for a complete analysis of land-use change. Instead, a sequence of methodologies is needed that link up and integrate disciplinary components over a range of spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, a modelling methodology is presented aiming at the

  16. Evaluating the effect of corridors and landscape heterogeneity on dispersal probability: a comparison of three spatially explicit modelling approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jepsen, J. U.; Baveco, J. M.; Topping, C. J.

    2004-01-01

    preferences of the modeller, rather than by a critical evaluation of model performance. We present a comparison of three common spatial simulation approaches (patch-based incidence-function model (IFM), individual-based movement model (IBMM), individual-based population model including detailed behaviour...

  17. Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: A new, seasonal, spatially explicit, global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and controls of coastal DIN delivery across larg...

  18. Factors influencing export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers: A new seasonal, spatially explicit, global model - 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background/Question/Methods Substantial effort has focused on understanding spatial variation in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export to the coastal zone and specific basins have been studied in some depth. Much less is known, however, about seasonal patterns and zone and ...

  19. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin V. Remais

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF 3.2.1 baseline/current (2001–2004 and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059 climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate.

  20. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

  1. Skeeter Buster: a stochastic, spatially explicit modeling tool for studying Aedes aegypti population replacement and population suppression strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krisztian Magori

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes. Assessing the potential efficacy of genetic (and conventional strategies requires the availability of modeling tools that accurately describe the dynamics and genetics of Ae. aegypti populations.We describe in this paper a new modeling tool of Ae. aegypti population dynamics and genetics named Skeeter Buster. This model operates at the scale of individual water-filled containers for immature stages and individual properties (houses for adults. The biology of cohorts of mosquitoes is modeled based on the algorithms used in the non-spatial Container Inhabiting Mosquitoes Simulation Model (CIMSiM. Additional features incorporated into Skeeter Buster include stochasticity, spatial structure and detailed population genetics. We observe that the stochastic modeling of individual containers in Skeeter Buster is associated with a strongly reduced temporal variation in stage-specific population densities. We show that heterogeneity in container composition of individual properties has a major impact on spatial heterogeneity in population density between properties. We detail how adult dispersal reduces this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we present the predicted genetic structure of the population by calculating F(ST values and isolation by distance patterns, and examine the effects of adult dispersal and container movement between properties.We demonstrate that the incorporated stochasticity and level of spatial detail have major impacts on the simulated population dynamics, which could potentially impact predictions in terms of control measures. The capacity to describe population genetics confers the ability to model the outcome

  2. Reconstructing satellite images to quantify spatially explicit land surface change caused by fires and succession: A demonstration in the Yukon River Basin of interior Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shengli; Jin, Suming; Dahal, Devendra; Chen, Xuexia; Young, Claudia; Liu, Heping; Liu, Shuguang

    2013-01-01

    Land surface change caused by fires and succession is confounded by many site-specific factors and requires further study. The objective of this study was to reveal the spatially explicit land surface change by minimizing the confounding factors of weather variability, seasonal offset, topography, land cover, and drainage. In a pilot study of the Yukon River Basin of interior Alaska, we retrieved Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), albedo, and land surface temperature (LST) from a postfire Landsat image acquired on August 5th, 2004. With a Landsat reference image acquired on June 26th, 1986, we reconstructed NDVI, albedo, and LST of 1987–2004 fire scars for August 5th, 2004, assuming that these fires had not occurred. The difference between actual postfire and assuming-no-fire scenarios depicted the fires and succession impact. Our results demonstrated the following: (1) NDVI showed an immediate decrease after burning but gradually recovered to prefire levels in the following years, in which burn severity might play an important role during this process; (2) Albedo showed an immediate decrease after burning but then recovered and became higher than prefire levels; and (3) Most fires caused surface warming, but cooler surfaces did exist; time-since-fire affected the prefire and postfire LST difference but no absolute trend could be found. Our approach provided spatially explicit land surface change rather than average condition, enabling a better understanding of fires and succession impact on ecological consequences at the pixel level.

  3. Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Gong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

  4. Spatially explicit modeling of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat in Nevada and northeastern California: a decision-support tool for management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Ricca, Mark A.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Overton, Cory T.; Sanchez-Chopitea, Erika; Kroger, Travis; Mauch, Kimberly; Niell, Lara; Howe, Kristy; Gardner, Scott; Espinosa, Shawn; Delehanty, David J.

    2014-01-01

    Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations are declining throughout the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem, including millions of acres of potential habitat across the West. Habitat maps derived from empirical data are needed given impending listing decisions that will affect both sage-grouse population dynamics and human land-use restrictions. This report presents the process for developing spatially explicit maps describing relative habitat suitability for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California. Maps depicting habitat suitability indices (HSI) values were generated based on model-averaged resource selection functions informed by more than 31,000 independent telemetry locations from more than 1,500 radio-marked sage-grouse across 12 project areas in Nevada and northeastern California collected during a 15-year period (1998–2013). Modeled habitat covariates included land cover composition, water resources, habitat configuration, elevation, and topography, each at multiple spatial scales that were relevant to empirically observed sage-grouse movement patterns. We then present an example of how the HSI can be delineated into categories. Specifically, we demonstrate that the deviation from the mean can be used to classify habitat suitability into three categories of habitat quality (high, moderate, and low) and one non-habitat category. The classification resulted in an agreement of 93–97 percent for habitat versus non-habitat across a suite of independent validation datasets. Lastly, we provide an example of how space use models can be integrated with habitat models to help inform conservation planning. In this example, we combined probabilistic breeding density with a non-linear probability of occurrence relative to distance to nearest lek (traditional breeding ground) using count data to calculate a composite space use index (SUI). The SUI was then classified into two categories of use

  5. Determinants of genetic structure in a nonequilibrium metapopulation of the plant Silene latifolia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter D Fields

    Full Text Available Population genetic differentiation will be influenced by the demographic history of populations, opportunities for migration among neighboring demes and founder effects associated with repeated extinction and recolonization. In natural populations, these factors are expected to interact with each other and their magnitudes will vary depending on the spatial distribution and age structure of local demes. Although each of these effects has been individually identified as important in structuring genetic variance, their relative magnitude is seldom estimated in nature. We conducted a population genetic analysis in a metapopulation of the angiosperm, Silene latifolia, from which we had more than 20 years of data on the spatial distribution, demographic history, and extinction and colonization of demes. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to disentangle which features of the populations contributed to among population variation in allele frequencies, including the magnitude and direction of their effects. We show that population age, long-term size and degree of connectivity all combine to affect the distribution of genetic variance; small, recently-founded, isolated populations contributed most to increase FST in the metapopulation. However, the effects of population size and population age are best understood as being modulated through the effects of connectivity to other extant populations, i.e. FST diminishes as populations age, but at a rate that depends how isolated the population is. These spatial and temporal correlates of population structure give insight into how migration, founder effect and within-deme genetic drift have combined to enhance and restrict genetic divergence in a natural metapopulation.

  6. SMART: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for assessing and managing demersal fisheries, with an application to italian trawlers in the strait of sicily.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tommaso Russo

    Full Text Available Management of catches, effort and exploitation pattern are considered the most effective measures to control fishing mortality and ultimately ensure productivity and sustainability of fisheries. Despite the growing concerns about the spatial dimension of fisheries, the distribution of resources and fishing effort in space is seldom considered in assessment and management processes. Here we propose SMART (Spatial MAnagement of demersal Resources for Trawl fisheries, a tool for assessing bio-economic feedback in different management scenarios. SMART combines information from different tasks gathered within the European Data Collection Framework on fisheries and is composed of: 1 spatial models of fishing effort, environmental characteristics and distribution of demersal resources; 2 an Artificial Neural Network which captures the relationships among these aspects in a spatially explicit way and uses them to predict resources abundances; 3 a deterministic module which analyzes the size structure of catches and the associated revenues, according to different spatially-based management scenarios. SMART is applied to demersal fishery in the Strait of Sicily, one of the most productive fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. Three of the main target species are used as proxies for the whole range exploited by trawlers. After training, SMART is used to evaluate different management scenarios, including spatial closures, using a simulation approach that mimics the recent exploitation patterns. Results evidence good model performance, with a noteworthy coherence and reliability of outputs for the different components. Among others, the main finding is that a partial improvement in resource conditions can be achieved by means of nursery closures, even if the overall fishing effort in the area remains stable. Accordingly, a series of strategically designed areas of trawling closures could significantly improve the resource conditions of demersal fisheries in

  7. SMART: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for assessing and managing demersal fisheries, with an application to italian trawlers in the strait of sicily.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Tommaso; Parisi, Antonio; Garofalo, Germana; Gristina, Michele; Cataudella, Stefano; Fiorentino, Fabio

    2014-01-01

    Management of catches, effort and exploitation pattern are considered the most effective measures to control fishing mortality and ultimately ensure productivity and sustainability of fisheries. Despite the growing concerns about the spatial dimension of fisheries, the distribution of resources and fishing effort in space is seldom considered in assessment and management processes. Here we propose SMART (Spatial MAnagement of demersal Resources for Trawl fisheries), a tool for assessing bio-economic feedback in different management scenarios. SMART combines information from different tasks gathered within the European Data Collection Framework on fisheries and is composed of: 1) spatial models of fishing effort, environmental characteristics and distribution of demersal resources; 2) an Artificial Neural Network which captures the relationships among these aspects in a spatially explicit way and uses them to predict resources abundances; 3) a deterministic module which analyzes the size structure of catches and the associated revenues, according to different spatially-based management scenarios. SMART is applied to demersal fishery in the Strait of Sicily, one of the most productive fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. Three of the main target species are used as proxies for the whole range exploited by trawlers. After training, SMART is used to evaluate different management scenarios, including spatial closures, using a simulation approach that mimics the recent exploitation patterns. Results evidence good model performance, with a noteworthy coherence and reliability of outputs for the different components. Among others, the main finding is that a partial improvement in resource conditions can be achieved by means of nursery closures, even if the overall fishing effort in the area remains stable. Accordingly, a series of strategically designed areas of trawling closures could significantly improve the resource conditions of demersal fisheries in the Strait of

  8. Population-specific life histories contribute to metapopulation viability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halsey, Samniqueka J.; Bell, Timothy J.; McEachern, A. Kathryn; Pavlovic, Noel B.

    2016-01-01

    Restoration efforts can be improved by understanding how variations in life-history traits occur within populations of the same species living in different environments. This can be done by first understanding the demographic responses of natural occurring populations. Population viability analysis continues to be useful to species management and conservation with sensitivity analysis aiding in the understanding of population dynamics. In this study, using life-table response experiments and elasticity analyses, we investigated how population-specific life-history demographic responses contributed to the metapopulation viability of the Federally threatened Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri). Specifically, we tested the following hypotheses: (1) Subpopulations occupying different environments within a metapopulation have independent demographic responses and (2) advancing succession results in a shift from a demographic response focused on growth and fecundity to one dominated by stasis. Our results showed that reintroductions had a positive contribution to the metapopulation growth rate as compared to native populations which had a negative contribution. We found no difference in succession on the contribution to metapopulation viability. In addition, we identified distinct population-specific contributions to metapopulation viability and were able to associate specific life-history demographic responses. For example, the positive impact of Miller High Dunes population on the metapopulation growth rate resulted from high growth contributions, whereas increased time of plant in stasis for the State Park Big Blowout population resulted in negative contributions. A greater understanding of how separate populations respond in their corresponding environment may ultimately lead to more effective management strategies aimed at reducing extinction risk. We propose the continued use of sensitivity analyses to evaluate population-specific demographic influences on

  9. Spatially explicit models of full-season productivity and implications for landscape management of Golden-winged Warblers in the western Great Lakes Region: Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Sean M.; Streby, Henry M.; Andersen, David E.

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between landscape structure and composition and full-season productivity (FSP) is poorly understood for most birds. For species of high conservation concern, insight into how productivity is related to landscape structure and composition can be used to develop more effective conservation strategies that increase recruitment. We monitored nest productivity and fledgling survival of Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera), a species of high conservation concern, in managed forest landscapes at two sites in northern Minnesota, and one site in southeastern Manitoba, Canada from 2010 to 2012. We used logistic exposure models to identify the influence of landscape structure and composition on nest productivity and fledgling survival. We used the models to predict spatially explicit, FSP across our study sites to identify areas of low relative productivity that could be targeted for management. We then used our models of spatially explicit, FSP to simulate the impact of potential management actions on our study sites with the goal of increasing total population productivity. Unlike previous studies that suggested wetland cover types provide higher quality breeding habitat for Golden-winged Warblers, our models predicted 14% greater productivity in upland cover types. Simulated succession of a 9-ha grassland patch to a shrubby upland suitable for nesting increased the total number of fledglings produced by that patch and adjacent upland shrublands by 30%, despite decreasing individual productivity by 13%. Further simulated succession of the same patch described above into deciduous forest reduced the total number of fledglings produced to independence on a landscape by 18% because of a decrease in the area available for nesting. Simulated reduction in the cumulative length of shrubby edge within a 50-m radius of any location in our landscapes from 0.6 to 0.3 km increased FSP by 5%. Our models demonstrated that the effects of any single management

  10. The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet L Mills

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city; population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods. Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

  11. Agro-hydrology and multi-temporal high-resolution remote sensing: toward an explicit spatial processes calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrant, S.; Gascoin, S.; Veloso, A.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Claverie, M.; Rivalland, V.; Dedieu, G.; Demarez, V.; Ceschia, E.; Probst, J.-L.; Durand, P.; Bustillo, V.

    2014-12-01

    The growing availability of high-resolution satellite image series offers new opportunities in agro-hydrological research and modeling. We investigated the possibilities offered for improving crop-growth dynamic simulation with the distributed agro-hydrological model: topography-based nitrogen transfer and transformation (TNT2). We used a leaf area index (LAI) map series derived from 105 Formosat-2 (F2) images covering the period 2006-2010. The TNT2 model (Beaujouan et al., 2002), calibrated against discharge and in-stream nitrate fluxes for the period 1985-2001, was tested on the 2005-2010 data set (climate, land use, agricultural practices, and discharge and nitrate fluxes at the outlet). Data from the first year (2005) were used to initialize the hydrological model. A priori agricultural practices obtained from an extensive field survey, such as seeding date, crop cultivar, and amount of fertilizer, were used as input variables. Continuous values of LAI as a function of cumulative daily temperature were obtained at the crop-field level by fitting a double logistic equation against discrete satellite-derived LAI. Model predictions of LAI dynamics using the a priori input parameters displayed temporal shifts from those observed LAI profiles that are irregularly distributed in space (between field crops) and time (between years). By resetting the seeding date at the crop-field level, we have developed an optimization method designed to efficiently minimize this temporal shift and better fit the crop growth against both the spatial observations and crop production. This optimization of simulated LAI has a negligible impact on water budgets at the catchment scale (1 mm yr-1 on average) but a noticeable impact on in-stream nitrogen fluxes (around 12%), which is of interest when considering nitrate stream contamination issues and the objectives of TNT2 modeling. This study demonstrates the potential contribution of the forthcoming high spatial and temporal resolution

  12. Spatiotemporal prediction of continuous daily PM2.5 concentrations across China using a spatially explicit machine learning algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Yu; Luo, Yuzhou; Deng, Xunfei; Chen, Huajin; Grieneisen, Michael L.; Shen, Xueyou; Zhu, Lizhong; Zhang, Minghua

    2017-04-01

    A high degree of uncertainty associated with the emission inventory for China tends to degrade the performance of chemical transport models in predicting PM2.5 concentrations especially on a daily basis. In this study a novel machine learning algorithm, Geographically-Weighted Gradient Boosting Machine (GW-GBM), was developed by improving GBM through building spatial smoothing kernels to weigh the loss function. This modification addressed the spatial nonstationarity of the relationships between PM2.5 concentrations and predictor variables such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) and meteorological conditions. GW-GBM also overcame the estimation bias of PM2.5 concentrations due to missing AOD retrievals, and thus potentially improved subsequent exposure analyses. GW-GBM showed good performance in predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations (R2 = 0.76, RMSE = 23.0 μg/m3) even with partially missing AOD data, which was better than the original GBM model (R2 = 0.71, RMSE = 25.3 μg/m3). On the basis of the continuous spatiotemporal prediction of PM2.5 concentrations, it was predicted that 95% of the population lived in areas where the estimated annual mean PM2.5 concentration was higher than 35 μg/m3, and 45% of the population was exposed to PM2.5 >75 μg/m3 for over 100 days in 2014. GW-GBM accurately predicted continuous daily PM2.5 concentrations in China for assessing acute human health effects.

  13. Metapopulation modelling of riparian tree species persistence in river networks under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Looy, Kris; Piffady, Jérémy

    2017-11-01

    Floodplain landscapes are highly fragmented by river regulation resulting in habitat degradation and flood regime perturbation, posing risks to population persistence. Climate change is expected to pose supplementary risks in this context of fragmented landscapes, and especially for river systems adaptation management programs are developed. The association of habitat quality and quantity with the landscape dynamics and resilience to human-induced disturbances is still poorly understood in the context of species survival and colonization processes, but essential to prioritize conservation and restoration actions. We present a modelling approach that elucidates network connectivity and landscape dynamics in spatial and temporal context to identify vital corridors and conservation priorities in the Loire river and its tributaries. Alteration of flooding and flow regimes is believed to be critical to population dynamics in river ecosystems. Still, little is known of critical levels of alteration both spatially and temporally. We applied metapopulation modelling approaches for a dispersal-limited tree species, white elm; and a recruitment-limited tree species, black poplar. In different model steps the connectivity and natural dynamics of the river landscape are confronted with physical alterations (dams/dykes) to species survival and then future scenarios for climatic changes and potential adaptation measures are entered in the model and translated in population persistence over the river basin. For the two tree species we highlighted crucial network zones in relation to habitat quality and connectivity. Where the human impact model already shows currently restricted metapopulation development, climate change is projected to aggravate this persistence perspective substantially. For both species a significant drawback to the basin population is observed, with 1/3 for elm and ¼ for poplar after 25 years already. But proposed adaptation measures prove effective to even

  14. Assessing Wildfire Risk in Cultural Heritage Properties Using High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Satellite Imagery and Spatially Explicit Fire Simulations: The Case of Holy Mount Athos, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgos Mallinis

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Fire management implications and the design of conservation strategies on fire prone landscapes within the UNESCO World Heritage Properties require the application of wildfire risk assessment at landscape level. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial variation of wildfire risk on Holy Mount Athos in Greece. Mt. Athos includes 20 monasteries and other structures that are threatened by increasing frequency of wildfires. Site-specific fuel models were created by measuring in the field several fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, while the spatial extent of the fuel types was determined using a synergy of high-resolution imagery and high temporal information from medium spatial resolution imagery classified through object-based analysis and a machine learning classifier. The Minimum Travel Time (MTT algorithm, as it is embedded in FlamMap software, was applied in order to evaluate Burn Probability (BP, Conditional Flame Length (CFL, Fire Size (FS, and Source-Sink Ratio (SSR. The results revealed low burn probabilities for the monasteries; however, nine out of the 20 monasteries have high fire potential in terms of fire intensity, which means that if an ignition occurs, an intense fire is expected. The outputs of this study may be used for decision-making for short-term predictions of wildfire risk at an operational level, contributing to fire suppression and management of UNESCO World Heritage Properties.

  15. Estimating Brownian motion dispersal rate, longevity and population density from spatially explicit mark-recapture data on tropical butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tufto, Jarle; Lande, Russell; Ringsby, Thor-Harald; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Walla, Thomas R; DeVries, Philip J

    2012-07-01

    1. We develop a Bayesian method for analysing mark-recapture data in continuous habitat using a model in which individuals movement paths are Brownian motions, life spans are exponentially distributed and capture events occur at given instants in time if individuals are within a certain attractive distance of the traps. 2. The joint posterior distribution of the dispersal rate, longevity, trap attraction distances and a number of latent variables representing the unobserved movement paths and time of death of all individuals is computed using Gibbs sampling. 3. An estimate of absolute local population density is obtained simply by dividing the Poisson counts of individuals captured at given points in time by the estimated total attraction area of all traps. Our approach for estimating population density in continuous habitat avoids the need to define an arbitrary effective trapping area that characterized previous mark-recapture methods in continuous habitat. 4. We applied our method to estimate spatial demography parameters in nine species of neotropical butterflies. Path analysis of interspecific variation in demographic parameters and mean wing length revealed a simple network of strong causation. Larger wing length increases dispersal rate, which in turn increases trap attraction distance. However, higher dispersal rate also decreases longevity, thus explaining the surprising observation of a negative correlation between wing length and longevity. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

  16. A spatially-explicit data driven approach to assess the effect of agricultural land occupation on species groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshout, P.; van Zelm, R.; Karuppiah, R.; Laurenzi, I.; Huijbregts, M.

    2013-12-01

    Change of vegetation cover and increased land use intensity can directly affect the natural habitat and the wildlife it houses. The actual impact of agricultural land use is region specific as crops are grown under various climatic conditions and ways of cultivation and refining. Furthermore, growing a specific crop in a tropical region may require clearance of rainforest while the same crop may replace natural grasslands in temperate regions. Within life cycle impact assessment (LCIA), methods to address impacts of land use on a global scale are still in need of development. We aim to extend existing methods to improve the robustness of LCIA by allowing spatial differentiation of agricultural land use impacts. The goal of this study is to develop characterization factors for the direct impact of land use on biodiversity, which results from the replacement of natural habitat with farmland. The characterization factor expresses the change in species richness under crop cultivation compared to the species richness in the natural situation over a certain area. A second goal was to identify the differences in impacts caused by cultivation of different crop types, sensitivity of different taxonomic groups, and differences in natural land cover. Empirical data on species richness were collected from literature for both natural reference situations and agricultural land use situations. Reference situations were selected on an ecoregion or biome basis. We calculated characterization factors for four crop groups (oil palm, low crops, cereals, and perennial grasses), four species groups (arthropods, birds, mammals, vascular plants), and six biomes.

  17. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Rules of thumb for conservation of metapopulations based on a stochastic winking-patch model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etienne, R.S.; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

    2001-01-01

    From a theoretical viewpoint, nature management basically has two options to prolong metapopulation persistence: decreasing local extinction probabilities and increasing colonization probabilities. This article focuses on those options with a stochastic, single-species metapopulation model. We found

  19. Modeling Agricultural Watersheds with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): Calibration and Validation with a Novel Procedure for Spatially Explicit HRUs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teshager, Awoke Dagnew; Gassman, Philip W; Secchi, Silvia; Schoof, Justin T; Misgna, Girmaye

    2016-04-01

    Applications of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model typically involve delineation of a watershed into subwatersheds/subbasins that are then further subdivided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are homogeneous areas of aggregated soil, landuse, and slope and are the smallest modeling units used within the model. In a given standard SWAT application, multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) in a subbasin are usually aggregated into a single HRU feature. In other words, the standard version of the model combines multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) with the same landuse/landcover, soil, and slope, but located at different places of a subbasin (spatially non-unique), and considers them as one HRU. In this study, ArcGIS pre-processing procedures were developed to spatially define a one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs (spatially unique HRUs) within a subbasin prior to SWAT simulations to facilitate input processing, input/output mapping, and further analysis at the individual farm field level. Model input data such as landuse/landcover (LULC), soil, crop rotation, and other management data were processed through these HRUs. The SWAT model was then calibrated/validated for Raccoon River watershed in Iowa for 2002-2010 and Big Creek River watershed in Illinois for 2000-2003. SWAT was able to replicate annual, monthly, and daily streamflow, as well as sediment, nitrate and mineral phosphorous within recommended accuracy in most cases. The one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs created and used in this study is a first step in performing LULC change, climate change impact, and other analyses in a more spatially explicit manner.

  20. How Levins’ dynamics emerges from a Ricker metapopulation model

    KAUST Repository

    Elías-Wolff, F.

    2015-09-24

    Understanding the dynamics of metapopulations close to extinction is of vital importance for management. Levins-like models, in which local patches are treated as either occupied or empty, have been used extensively to explore the extinction dynamics of metapopulations, but they ignore the important role of local population dynamics. In this paper, we consider a stochastic metapopulation model where local populations follow a stochastic, density-dependent dynamics (the Ricker model), and use this framework to investigate the behaviour of the metapopulation on the brink of extinction. We determine under which circumstances the metapopulation follows a time evolution consistent with Levins’ dynamics. We derive analytical expressions for the colonisation and extinction rates (c and e) in Levins-type models in terms of reproduction, survival and dispersal parameters of the local populations, providing an avenue to parameterising Levins-like models from the type of information on local demography that is available for a number of species. To facilitate applying our results, we provide a numerical algorithm for computing c and e.

  1. How Levins’ dynamics emerges from a Ricker metapopulation model

    KAUST Repository

    Elí as-Wolff, F.; Eriksson, Anders; Manica, A.; Mehlig, B.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the dynamics of metapopulations close to extinction is of vital importance for management. Levins-like models, in which local patches are treated as either occupied or empty, have been used extensively to explore the extinction dynamics of metapopulations, but they ignore the important role of local population dynamics. In this paper, we consider a stochastic metapopulation model where local populations follow a stochastic, density-dependent dynamics (the Ricker model), and use this framework to investigate the behaviour of the metapopulation on the brink of extinction. We determine under which circumstances the metapopulation follows a time evolution consistent with Levins’ dynamics. We derive analytical expressions for the colonisation and extinction rates (c and e) in Levins-type models in terms of reproduction, survival and dispersal parameters of the local populations, providing an avenue to parameterising Levins-like models from the type of information on local demography that is available for a number of species. To facilitate applying our results, we provide a numerical algorithm for computing c and e.

  2. Spatially explicit habitat models for 28 fishes from the Upper Mississippi River System (AHAG 2.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ickes, Brian S.; Sauer, J.S.; Richards, N.; Bowler, M.; Schlifer, B.

    2014-01-01

    perhaps why). Our goal was to develop regionalized models, and to assess and describe circumstances when a good fit was not possible. Seven fish species composed the Lentic guild. Good fits were achieved for six Upper Reach models. In the Lower Reach, no model produced good fits for the Lentic guild. This was due to (1) lentic species being much less prominent in the Lower Reach study areas, and (2) those that do express greater prominence principally do so only in the La Grange reach of the Illinois River. Thus, developing Lower Reach models for Lentic species will require parsing La Grange from the other two Lower Reach study areas and fitting separate models. We did not do that as part of this study, but it could be done at a later time. Nine species comprised the Lotic guild. Good fits were achieved for seven Upper Reach models and six Lower Reach models. Four species had good fits for both regions (flathead catfish, blue sucker, sauger, and shorthead redhorse). Three species showed zoogeographic zonation, with a good model fit in one of the regions, but not in the region in which they were absent or rarely occurred (blue catfish, rock bass, and skipjack herring). Twelve species comprised the Generalist guild. Good fits were achieved for five Upper Reach models and eight Lower Reach models. Six species had good fits for both regions (brook silverside, emerald shiner, freshwater drum, logperch, longnose gar, and white bass). Two species showed zoogeographic zonation, with a good model fit in one of the regions, but not in the region in which they were absent or rarely occurred (red shiner and blackstripe topminnow). Poorly fit models were almost always due to the diagnostic variable “field station,” a surrogate for river mile. In these circumstances, the residuals for “field station” were non-randomly distributed and often strongly ordered. This indicates either fitting “pool scale” models for these species and regions, or explicitly model covariances

  3. Producing Distribution Maps for a Spatially-Explicit Ecosystem Model Using Large Monitoring and Environmental Databases and a Combination of Interpolation and Extrapolation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud Grüss

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available To be able to simulate spatial patterns of predator-prey interactions, many spatially-explicit ecosystem modeling platforms, including Atlantis, need to be provided with distribution maps defining the annual or seasonal spatial distributions of functional groups and life stages. We developed a methodology combining extrapolation and interpolation of the predictions made by statistical habitat models to produce distribution maps for the fish and invertebrates represented in the Atlantis model of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM Large Marine Ecosystem (LME (“Atlantis-GOM”. This methodology consists of: (1 compiling a large monitoring database, gathering all the fisheries-independent and fisheries-dependent data collected in the northern (U.S. GOM since 2000; (2 compiling a large environmental database, storing all the environmental parameters known to influence the spatial distribution patterns of fish and invertebrates of the GOM; (3 fitting binomial generalized additive models (GAMs to the large monitoring and environmental databases, and geostatistical binomial generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs to the large monitoring database; and (4 employing GAM predictions to infer spatial distributions in the southern GOM, and GLMM predictions to infer spatial distributions in the U.S. GOM. Thus, our methodology allows for reasonable extrapolation in the southern GOM based on a large amount of monitoring and environmental data, and for interpolation in the U.S. GOM accurately reflecting the probability of encountering fish and invertebrates in that region. We used an iterative cross-validation procedure to validate GAMs. When a GAM did not pass the validation test, we employed a GAM for a related functional group/life stage to generate distribution maps for the southern GOM. In addition, no geostatistical GLMMs were fit for the functional groups and life stages whose depth, longitudinal and latitudinal ranges within the U.S. GOM are not entirely covered by

  4. Towards anatomic scale agent-based modeling with a massively parallel spatially explicit general-purpose model of enteric tissue (SEGMEnT_HPC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockrell, Robert Chase; Christley, Scott; Chang, Eugene; An, Gary

    2015-01-01

    Perhaps the greatest challenge currently facing the biomedical research community is the ability to integrate highly detailed cellular and molecular mechanisms to represent clinical disease states as a pathway to engineer effective therapeutics. This is particularly evident in the representation of organ-level pathophysiology in terms of abnormal tissue structure, which, through histology, remains a mainstay in disease diagnosis and staging. As such, being able to generate anatomic scale simulations is a highly desirable goal. While computational limitations have previously constrained the size and scope of multi-scale computational models, advances in the capacity and availability of high-performance computing (HPC) resources have greatly expanded the ability of computational models of biological systems to achieve anatomic, clinically relevant scale. Diseases of the intestinal tract are exemplary examples of pathophysiological processes that manifest at multiple scales of spatial resolution, with structural abnormalities present at the microscopic, macroscopic and organ-levels. In this paper, we describe a novel, massively parallel computational model of the gut, the Spatially Explicitly General-purpose Model of Enteric Tissue_HPC (SEGMEnT_HPC), which extends an existing model of the gut epithelium, SEGMEnT, in order to create cell-for-cell anatomic scale simulations. We present an example implementation of SEGMEnT_HPC that simulates the pathogenesis of ileal pouchitis, and important clinical entity that affects patients following remedial surgery for ulcerative colitis.

  5. An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling in R: the lulccR package (0.1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.

    2015-04-01

    Land use change has important consequences for biodiversity and the sustainability of ecosystem services, as well as for global environmental change. Spatially explicit land use change models improve our understanding of the processes driving change and make predictions about the quantity and location of future and past change. Here we present the lulccR package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of different models; (3) different aspects of the modelling procedure must be performed in different environments because existing applications usually only perform the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the widely used CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a dataset included with the package. It is envisaged that lulccR will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment.

  6. Explicit Interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwgren, Jonas; Eriksen, Mette Agger; Linde, Per

    2006-01-01

    We report an ongoing study of palpable computing to support surgical rehabilitation, in the general field of interaction design for ubiquitous computing. Through explorative design, fieldwork and participatory design techniques, we explore the design principle of explicit interaction as an interp...

  7. Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Simulation models of influenza spread play an important role for pandemic preparedness. However, as the world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. Methods We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. Results The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. Conclusions We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficial. PMID:21554680

  8. The spatial spread of schistosomiasis: A multidimensional network model applied to Saint-Louis region, Senegal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciddio, Manuela; Mari, Lorenzo; Sokolow, Susanne H.; De Leo, Giulio A.; Casagrandi, Renato; Gatto, Marino

    2017-10-01

    Schistosomiasis is a parasitic, water-related disease that is prevalent in tropical and subtropical areas of the world, causing severe and chronic consequences especially among children. Here we study the spatial spread of this disease within a network of connected villages in the endemic region of the Lower Basin of the Senegal River, in Senegal. The analysis is performed by means of a spatially explicit metapopulation model that couples local-scale eco-epidemiological dynamics with spatial mechanisms related to human mobility (estimated from anonymized mobile phone records), snail dispersal and hydrological transport of schistosome larvae along the main water bodies of the region. Results show that the model produces epidemiological patterns consistent with field observations, and point out the key role of spatial connectivity on the spread of the disease. These findings underline the importance of considering different transport pathways in order to elaborate disease control strategies that can be effective within a network of connected populations.

  9. Spatially-explicit modeling of multi-scale drivers of aboveground forest biomass and water yield in watersheds of the Southeastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajaz Ahmed, Mukhtar Ahmed; Abd-Elrahman, Amr; Escobedo, Francisco J; Cropper, Wendell P; Martin, Timothy A; Timilsina, Nilesh

    2017-09-01

    Understanding ecosystem processes and the influence of regional scale drivers can provide useful information for managing forest ecosystems. Examining more local scale drivers of forest biomass and water yield can also provide insights for identifying and better understanding the effects of climate change and management on forests. We used diverse multi-scale datasets, functional models and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to model ecosystem processes at the watershed scale and to interpret the influence of ecological drivers across the Southeastern United States (SE US). Aboveground forest biomass (AGB) was determined from available geospatial datasets and water yield was estimated using the Water Supply and Stress Index (WaSSI) model at the watershed level. Our geostatistical model examined the spatial variation in these relationships between ecosystem processes, climate, biophysical, and forest management variables at the watershed level across the SE US. Ecological and management drivers at the watershed level were analyzed locally to identify whether drivers contribute positively or negatively to aboveground forest biomass and water yield ecosystem processes and thus identifying potential synergies and tradeoffs across the SE US region. Although AGB and water yield drivers varied geographically across the study area, they were generally significantly influenced by climate (rainfall and temperature), land-cover factor1 (Water and barren), land-cover factor2 (wetland and forest), organic matter content high, rock depth, available water content, stand age, elevation, and LAI drivers. These drivers were positively or negatively associated with biomass or water yield which significantly contributes to ecosystem interactions or tradeoff/synergies. Our study introduced a spatially-explicit modelling framework to analyze the effect of ecosystem drivers on forest ecosystem structure, function and provision of services. This integrated model approach facilitates

  10. Spatially explicit assessment of heat health risk by using multi-sensor remote sensing images and socioeconomic data in Yangtze River Delta, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qian; Ding, Mingjun; Yang, Xuchao; Hu, Kejia; Qi, Jiaguo

    2018-05-25

    The increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, which are potentially associated with climate change in the near future, highlights the importance of heat health risk assessment, a significant reference for heat-related death reduction and intervention. However, a spatiotemporal mismatch exists between gridded heat hazard and human exposure in risk assessment, which hinders the identification of high-risk areas at finer scales. A human settlement index integrated by nighttime light images, enhanced vegetation index, and digital elevation model data was utilized to assess the human exposure at high spatial resolution. Heat hazard and vulnerability index were generated by land surface temperature and demographic and socioeconomic census data, respectively. Spatially explicit assessment of heat health risk and its driving factors was conducted in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), east China at 250 m pixel level. High-risk areas were mainly distributed in the urbanized areas of YRD, which were mostly driven by high human exposure and heat hazard index. In some less-urbanized cities and suburban and rural areas of mega-cities, the heat health risks are in second priority. The risks in some less-developed areas were high despite the low human exposure index because of high heat hazard and vulnerability index. This study illustrated a methodology for identifying high-risk areas by combining freely available multi-source data. Highly urbanized areas were considered hotspots of high heat health risks, which were largely driven by the increasing urban heat island effects and population density in urban areas. Repercussions of overheating were weakened due to the low social vulnerability in some central areas benefitting from the low proportion of sensitive population or the high level of socioeconomic development. By contrast, high social vulnerability intensifies heat health risks in some less-urbanized cities and suburban areas of mega-cities.

  11. Fenced and Fragmented: Conservation Value of Managed Metapopulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Susan M.; Harper, Cindy K.; Bloomer, Paulette; Hofmeyr, Jennifer; Funston, Paul J.

    2015-01-01

    Population fragmentation is threatening biodiversity worldwide. Species that once roamed vast areas are increasingly being conserved in small, isolated areas. Modern management approaches must adapt to ensure the continued survival and conservation value of these populations. In South Africa, a managed metapopulation approach has been adopted for several large carnivore species, all protected in isolated, relatively small, reserves that are fenced. As far as possible these approaches are based on natural metapopulation structures. In this network, over the past 25 years, African lions (Panthera leo) were reintroduced into 44 fenced reserves with little attention given to maintaining genetic diversity. To examine the situation, we investigated the current genetic provenance and diversity of these lions. We found that overall genetic diversity was similar to that in a large national park, and included a mixture of four different southern African evolutionarily significant units (ESUs). This mixing of ESUs, while not ideal, provides a unique opportunity to study the impact of mixing ESUs over the long term. We propose a strategic managed metapopulation plan to ensure the maintenance of genetic diversity and improve the long-term conservation value of these lions. This managed metapopulation approach could be applied to other species under similar ecological constraints around the globe. PMID:26699333

  12. Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

    2017-05-01

    The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield

  13. Designing Optimal LNG Station Network for U.S. Heavy-Duty Freight Trucks using Temporally and Spatially Explicit Supply Chain Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Allen

    The recent natural gas boom has opened much discussion about the potential of natural gas and specifically Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in the United States transportation sector. The switch from diesel to natural gas vehicles would reduce foreign dependence on oil, spur domestic economic growth, and potentially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. LNG provides the most potential for the medium to heavy-duty vehicle market partially due to unstable oil prices and stagnant natural gas prices. As long as the abundance of unconventional gas in the United States remains cheap, fuel switching to natural gas could provide significant cost savings for long haul freight industry. Amid a growing LNG station network and ever increasing demand for freight movement, LNG heavy-duty truck sales are less than anticipated and the industry as a whole is less economic than expected. In spite of much existing and mature natural gas infrastructure, the supply chain for LNG is different and requires explicit and careful planning. This thesis proposes research to explore the claim that the largest obstacle to widespread LNG market penetration is sub-optimal infrastructure planning. No other study we are aware of has explicitly explored the LNG transportation fuel supply chain for heavy-duty freight trucks. This thesis presents a novel methodology that links a network infrastructure optimization model (represents supply side) with a vehicle stock and economic payback model (represents demand side). The model characterizes both a temporal and spatial optimization model of future LNG transportation fuel supply chains in the United States. The principal research goal is to assess the economic feasibility of the current LNG transportation fuel industry and to determine an optimal pathway to achieve ubiquitous commercialization of LNG vehicles in the heavy-duty transport sector. The results indicate that LNG is not economic as a heavy-duty truck fuel until 2030 under current market conditions

  14. Minimizing Erosion and Agro-Pollutants Transport from Furrow Irrigated Fields to the Nearby Water Body Using Spatially-Explicit Agent Based Model and Decision Optimization Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghoveisi, H.; Al Dughaishi, U.; Kiker, G.

    2017-12-01

    Maintaining water quality in agricultural watersheds is a worldwide challenge, especially where furrow irrigation is being practiced. The Yakima River Basin watershed in south central Washington State, (USA) is an example of these impacted areas with elevated load of sediments and other agricultural products due to runoff from furrow-irrigated fields. Within the Yakima basin, the Granger Drain watershed (area of 75 km2) is particularly challenged in this regard with more than 400 flood-irrigated individual parcels (area of 21 km2) growing a variety of crops from maize to grapes. Alternatives for improving water quality from furrow-irrigated parcels include vegetated filter strip (VFS) implementation, furrow water application efficiency, polyacrylamide (PAM) application and irrigation scheduling. These alternatives were simulated separately and in combinations to explore potential Best Management Practices (BMPs) for runoff-related-pollution reduction in a spatially explicit, agent based modeling system (QnD:GrangerDrain). Two regulatory scenarios were tested to BMP adoption within individual parcels. A blanket-style regulatory scenario simulated a total of 60 BMP combinations implemented in all 409 furrow-irrigated parcels. A second regulatory scenario simulated the BMPs in 119 furrow-irrigated parcels designated as "hotspots" based on a standard 12 Mg ha-1 seasonal sediment load. The simulated cumulative runoff and sediment loading from all BMP alternatives were ranked using Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), specifically the Stochastic Multi-Attribute Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) method. Several BMP combinations proved successful in reducing loads below a 25 NTU (91 mg L-1) regulatory sediment concentration. The QnD:GrangerDrain simulations and subsequent MCDA ranking revealed that the BMP combinations of 5 m-VFS and high furrow water efficiency were highly ranked alternatives for both the blanket and hotspot scenarios.

  15. Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topp, Cairistiona F. E.; Moorby, Jon M.; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H.

    2018-01-01

    Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (cow), the ‘hottest’ 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today’s average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years. PMID:29738581

  16. Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nándor Fodor

    Full Text Available Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow, the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.

  17. Hydrologic Drivers of Soil Organic Carbon Erosion and Burial: Insights from a Spatially-explicit Model of a Degraded Landscape at the Calhoun Critical Zone Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dialynas, Y. G.; Bras, R. L.; Richter, D. D., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Soil erosion and burial of organic material may constitute a substantial sink of atmospheric CO2. Attempts to quantify impacts of soil erosion on the soil-atmosphere C exchange are limited by difficulties in accounting for the fate of eroded soil organic carbon (SOC), a key factor in estimating of the net effect of erosion on the C cycle. Processes that transport SOC are still inadequately represented in terrestrial carbon (C) cycle models. This study investigates hydrologic controls on SOC redistribution across the landscape focusing on dynamic feedbacks between watershed hydrology, soil erosional processes, and SOC burial. We use tRIBS-ECO (Triangulated Irregular Network-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator-Erosion and Carbon Oxidation), a spatially-explicit model of SOC dynamics coupled with a physically-based hydro-geomorphic model. tRIBS-ECO systematically accounts for the fate of eroded SOC across the watershed: Rainsplash erosion and sheet erosion redistribute SOC from upland sites to depositional environments, altering depth-dependent soil biogeochemical properties in diverse soil profiles. Eroded organic material is transferred with sediment and can be partially oxidized upon transport, or preserved from decomposition by burial. The model was applied in the Calhoun Critical Zone Observatory (CZO), a site that is recovering from some of the most serious agricultural erosion in North America. Soil biogeochemical characteristics at multiple soil horizons were used to initialize the model and test performance. Remotely sensed soil moisture data (NASA SMAP) were used for model calibration. Results show significant rates of hydrologically-induced burial of SOC at the Calhoun CZO. We find that organic material at upland eroding soil profiles is largely mobilized by rainsplash erosion. Sheet erosion mainly drives C transport in lower elevation clayey soils. While SOC erosion and deposition rates declined with recent reforestation at the study site, the

  18. Quantifying the importance of patch-specific changes in habitat to metapopulation viability of an endangered songbird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Jon S; Strickler, Katherine M; Alldredge, Mathew

    2011-10-01

    A growing number of programs seek to facilitate species conservation using incentive-based mechanisms. Recently, a market-based incentive program for the federally endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Dendroica chrysoparia) was implemented on a trial basis at Fort Hood, an Army training post in Texas, USA. Under this program, recovery credits accumulated by Fort Hood through contracts with private landowners are used to offset unintentional loss of breeding habitat of Golden-cheeked Warblers within the installation. Critical to successful implementation of such programs is the ability to value, in terms of changes to overall species viability, both habitat loss and habitat restoration or protection. In this study, we sought to answer two fundamental questions: Given the same amount of change in breeding habitat, does the change in some patches have a greater effect on metapopulation persistence than others? And if so, can characteristics of a patch (e.g., size or spatial location) be used to predict how the metapopulation will respond to these changes? To answer these questions, we describe an approach for using sensitivity analysis of a metapopulation projection model to predict how changes to specific habitat patches would affect species viability. We used a stochastic, discrete-time projection model based on stage-specific estimates of survival and fecundity, as well as various assumptions about dispersal among populations. To assess a particular patch's leverage, we quantified how much metapopulation viability was expected to change in response to changing the size of that patch. We then related original patch size and distance from the largest patch to each patch's leverage to determine if general patch characteristics could be used to develop guidelines for valuing changes to patches within a metapopulation. We found that both the characteristic that best predicted patch leverage and the magnitude of the relationship changed under different model scenarios

  19. The stochastic resonance for the incidence function model of metapopulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Zhou, Ruo-Wei; Li, Yun-Xian; Qian, Zhen-Wei

    2017-06-01

    A stochastic model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is proposed in this paper on the basis of metapopulation dynamics to model the crop yield losses due to pests and diseases. The rationale is that crop yield losses occur because the physiology of the growing crop is negatively affected by pests and diseases in a dynamic way over time as crop both grows and develops. Metapopulation dynamics can thus be used to model the resultant crop yield losses. The stochastic metapopulation process is described by using the Simplified Incidence Function model (IFM). Compared to the original IFMs, endogenous and exogenous periodicities are considered in the proposed model to handle the cyclical patterns observed in pest infestations, diseases epidemics, and exogenous affecting factors such as temperature and rainfalls. Agricultural loss data in China are used to fit the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that: (1) Model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is a better fit; (2) When the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are negatively correlated, EIL or the cost of loss is monotonically increasing; when the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an outbreak of pests and diseases might occur; (3) If the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an optimal patch size can be identified which will greatly weaken the effects of external environmental influence and hence inhibit pest infestations and disease epidemics.

  20. Assessment of fine-scale resource selection and spatially explicit habitat suitability modelling for a re-introduced tiger (Panthera tigris population in central India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mriganka Shekhar Sarkar

    2017-11-01

    and settled periods. Based on threshold limits of habitat selection by the Boyce Index, we established that 83% of core and 47% of buffer areas are now suitable habitats for tiger in this reserve. Discussion Tiger management often focuses on large-scale measures, but this study for the first time highlights the behaviour and fine-scale individual-specific habitat selection strategies. Such knowledge is vital for management of critical tiger habitats and specifically for the success of reintroduction programs. Our spatially explicit habitat suitability map provides a baseline for conservation planning and optimizing carrying capacity of the tiger population in this reserve.

  1. Assessment of fine-scale resource selection and spatially explicit habitat suitability modelling for a re-introduced tiger (Panthera tigris) population in central India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Mriganka Shekhar; Krishnamurthy, Ramesh; Johnson, Jeyaraj A; Sen, Subharanjan; Saha, Goutam Kumar

    2017-01-01

    of habitat selection by the Boyce Index, we established that 83% of core and 47% of buffer areas are now suitable habitats for tiger in this reserve. Tiger management often focuses on large-scale measures, but this study for the first time highlights the behaviour and fine-scale individual-specific habitat selection strategies. Such knowledge is vital for management of critical tiger habitats and specifically for the success of reintroduction programs. Our spatially explicit habitat suitability map provides a baseline for conservation planning and optimizing carrying capacity of the tiger population in this reserve.

  2. Metapopulation theory identifies biogeographical patterns among core and satellite marine bacteria scaling from tens to thousands of kilometers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindh, Markus V.; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Ekstam, Börje

    2017-01-01

    Metapopulation theory developed in terrestrial ecology provides applicable frameworks for interpreting the role of local and regional processes in shaping species distribution patterns. Yet, empirical testing of metapopulation models on microbial communities is essentially lacking. We determined ...

  3. On valuing patches: estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture-recapture modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamie S. Sanderlin; Peter M. Waser; James E. Hines; James D. Nichols

    2012-01-01

    Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture­recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use 'contribution...

  4. Connectivity, cycles, and persistence thresholds in metapopulation networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yael Artzy-Randrup

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Synthesising the relationships between complexity, connectivity, and the stability of large biological systems has been a longstanding fundamental quest in theoretical biology and ecology. With the many exciting developments in modern network theory, interest in these issues has recently come to the forefront in a range of multidisciplinary areas. Here we outline a new theoretical analysis specifically relevant for the study of ecological metapopulations focusing primarily on marine systems, where subpopulations are generally connected via larval dispersal. Our work determines the qualitative and quantitative conditions by which dispersal and network structure control the persistence of a set of age-structured patch populations. Mathematical modelling combined with a graph theoretic analysis demonstrates that persistence depends crucially on the topology of cycles in the dispersal network which tend to enhance the effect of larvae "returning home." Our method clarifies the impact directly due to network structure, but this almost by definition can only be achieved by examining the simplified case in which patches are identical; an assumption that we later relax. The methodology identifies critical migration routes, whose presence are vital to overall stability, and therefore should have high conservation priority. In contrast, "lonely links," or links in the network that do not participate in a cyclical component, have no impact on persistence and thus have low conservation priority. A number of other intriguing criteria for persistence are derived. Our modelling framework reveals new insights regarding the determinants of persistence, stability, and thresholds in complex metapopulations. In particular, while theoretical arguments have, in the past, suggested that increasing connectivity is a destabilizing feature in complex systems, this is not evident in metapopulation networks where connectivity, cycles, coherency, and heterogeneity all tend

  5. Lemur species-specific metapopulation responses to habitat loss and fragmentation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Travis S Steffens

    Full Text Available Determining what factors affect species occurrence is vital to the study of primate biogeography. We investigated the metapopulation dynamics of a lemur community consisting of eight species (Avahi occidentalis, Propithecus coquereli, Microcebus murinus, Microcebus ravelobensis, Lepilemur edwardsi, Cheirogaleus medius, Eulemur mongoz, and Eulemur fulvus within fragmented tropical dry deciduous forest habitat in Ankarafantsika National Park, Madagascar. We measured fragment size and isolation of 42 fragments of forest ranging in size from 0.23 to 117.7 ha adjacent to continuous forest. Between June and November 2011, we conducted 1218 surveys and observed six of eight lemur species (M. murinus, M. ravelobensis, C. medius, E. fulvus, P. coquereli, and L. edwardsi in the 42 fragments. We applied among patch incidence function models (IFMs with various measures of dispersal and a mainland-island IFM to lemur species occurrence, with the aim of answering the following questions: 1 Do lemur species in dry deciduous forest fragments form metapopulations? 2 What are the separate effects of area (extinction risk and connectivity/isolation (colonization potential within a lemur metapopulation? 3 Within simulated metapopulations over time, how do area and connectivity/isolation affect occurrence? and 4 What are the conservation implications of our findings? We found that M. murinus formed either a mainland-island or an among patch metapopulation, M. ravelobensis formed a mainland-island metapopulation, C. medius and E. fulvus formed among patch metapopulations, and neither P. coquereli or L. edwardsi formed a metapopulation. Metapopulation dynamics and simulations suggest that area was a more consistent positive factor determining lemur species occurrence than fragment isolation and is crucial to the maintenance of lemur populations within this fragmented landscape. Using a metapopulation approach to lemur biogeography is critical for understanding how

  6. Time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) coupled with reference interaction site model self-consistent field explicitly including spatial electron density distribution (RISM-SCF-SEDD)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokogawa, D., E-mail: d.yokogawa@chem.nagoya-u.ac.jp [Department of Chemistry, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Chikusa, Nagoya 464-8602 (Japan); Institute of Transformative Bio-Molecules (WPI-ITbM), Nagoya University, Chikusa, Nagoya 464-8602 (Japan)

    2016-09-07

    Theoretical approach to design bright bio-imaging molecules is one of the most progressing ones. However, because of the system size and computational accuracy, the number of theoretical studies is limited to our knowledge. To overcome the difficulties, we developed a new method based on reference interaction site model self-consistent field explicitly including spatial electron density distribution and time-dependent density functional theory. We applied it to the calculation of indole and 5-cyanoindole at ground and excited states in gas and solution phases. The changes in the optimized geometries were clearly explained with resonance structures and the Stokes shift was correctly reproduced.

  7. Zoos through the Lens of the IUCN Red List: A Global Metapopulation Approach to Support Conservation Breeding Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, Dalia A.; Colchero, Fernando; Gusset, Markus; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Byers, Onnie; Flesness, Nate; Browne, Robert K.; Jones, Owen R.

    2013-01-01

    Given current extinction trends, the number of species requiring conservation breeding programs (CBPs) is likely to increase dramatically. To inform CBP policies for threatened terrestrial vertebrates, we evaluated the number and representation of threatened vertebrate species on the IUCN Red List held in the ISIS zoo network and estimated the complexity of their management as metapopulations. Our results show that 695 of the 3,955 (23%) terrestrial vertebrate species in ISIS zoos are threatened. Only two of the 59 taxonomic orders show a higher proportion of threatened species in ISIS zoos than would be expected if species were selected at random. In addition, for most taxa, the management of a zoo metapopulation of more than 250 individuals will require the coordination of a cluster of 11 to 24 ISIS zoos within a radius of 2,000 km. Thus, in the zoo network, the representation of species that may require CBPs is currently low and the spatial distribution of these zoo populations makes management difficult. Although the zoo community may have the will and the logistical potential to contribute to conservation actions, including CBPs, to do so will require greater collaboration between zoos and other institutions, alongside the development of international agreements that facilitate cross-border movement of zoo animals. To maximize the effectiveness of integrated conservation actions that include CBPs, it is fundamental that the non-zoo conservation community acknowledges and integrates the expertise and facilities of zoos where it can be helpful. PMID:24348999

  8. Zoos through the lens of the IUCN Red List: a global metapopulation approach to support conservation breeding programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, Dalia A; Colchero, Fernando; Gusset, Markus; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Byers, Onnie; Flesness, Nate; Browne, Robert K; Jones, Owen R

    2013-01-01

    Given current extinction trends, the number of species requiring conservation breeding programs (CBPs) is likely to increase dramatically. To inform CBP policies for threatened terrestrial vertebrates, we evaluated the number and representation of threatened vertebrate species on the IUCN Red List held in the ISIS zoo network and estimated the complexity of their management as metapopulations. Our results show that 695 of the 3,955 (23%) terrestrial vertebrate species in ISIS zoos are threatened. Only two of the 59 taxonomic orders show a higher proportion of threatened species in ISIS zoos than would be expected if species were selected at random. In addition, for most taxa, the management of a zoo metapopulation of more than 250 individuals will require the coordination of a cluster of 11 to 24 ISIS zoos within a radius of 2,000 km. Thus, in the zoo network, the representation of species that may require CBPs is currently low and the spatial distribution of these zoo populations makes management difficult. Although the zoo community may have the will and the logistical potential to contribute to conservation actions, including CBPs, to do so will require greater collaboration between zoos and other institutions, alongside the development of international agreements that facilitate cross-border movement of zoo animals. To maximize the effectiveness of integrated conservation actions that include CBPs, it is fundamental that the non-zoo conservation community acknowledges and integrates the expertise and facilities of zoos where it can be helpful.

  9. Zoos through the lens of the IUCN Red List: a global metapopulation approach to support conservation breeding programs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalia A Conde

    Full Text Available Given current extinction trends, the number of species requiring conservation breeding programs (CBPs is likely to increase dramatically. To inform CBP policies for threatened terrestrial vertebrates, we evaluated the number and representation of threatened vertebrate species on the IUCN Red List held in the ISIS zoo network and estimated the complexity of their management as metapopulations. Our results show that 695 of the 3,955 (23% terrestrial vertebrate species in ISIS zoos are threatened. Only two of the 59 taxonomic orders show a higher proportion of threatened species in ISIS zoos than would be expected if species were selected at random. In addition, for most taxa, the management of a zoo metapopulation of more than 250 individuals will require the coordination of a cluster of 11 to 24 ISIS zoos within a radius of 2,000 km. Thus, in the zoo network, the representation of species that may require CBPs is currently low and the spatial distribution of these zoo populations makes management difficult. Although the zoo community may have the will and the logistical potential to contribute to conservation actions, including CBPs, to do so will require greater collaboration between zoos and other institutions, alongside the development of international agreements that facilitate cross-border movement of zoo animals. To maximize the effectiveness of integrated conservation actions that include CBPs, it is fundamental that the non-zoo conservation community acknowledges and integrates the expertise and facilities of zoos where it can be helpful.

  10. Patterns and persistence of larval retention and connectivity in a marine fish metapopulation

    KAUST Repository

    Saenz Agudelo, Pablo

    2012-08-14

    Connectivity, the demographic linking of local populations through the dispersal of individuals, is one of the most poorly understood processes in population dynamics, yet has profound implications for conservation and harvest strategies. For marine species with pelagic larvae, direct estimation of connectivity remains logistically challenging and has mostly been limited to single snapshots in time. Here, we document seasonal and interannual patterns of larval dispersal in a metapopulation of the coral reef fish Amphiprion polymnus. A 3-year record of larval trajectories within and among nine discrete local populations from an area of approximately 35 km was established by determining the natal origin of settled juveniles through DNA parentage analysis. We found that spatial patterns of both self-recruitment and connectivity were remarkably consistent over time, with a low level of self-recruitment at the scale of individual sites. Connectivity among sites was common and multidirectional in all years and was not significantly influenced by seasonal variability of predominant surface current directions. However, approximately 75% of the sampled juveniles could not be assigned to parents within the study area, indicating high levels of immigrations from sources outside the study area. The data support predictions that the magnitude and temporal stability of larval connectivity decreases significantly with increasing distance between subpopulations, but increases with the size of subpopulations. Given the considerable effort needed to directly measure larval exchange, the consistent patterns suggest snapshot parentage analyses can provide useful dispersal estimates to inform spatial management decisions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Effects of Demographic Noise on the Synchronization of a Metapopulation in a Fluctuating Environment

    KAUST Repository

    Lai, Yi Ming

    2011-09-08

    We use the theory of noise-induced phase synchronization to analyze the effects of demographic noise on the synchronization of a metapopulation of predator-prey systems within a fluctuating environment (Moran effect). Treating each local predator-prey population as a stochastic urn model, we derive a Langevin equation for the stochastic dynamics of the metapopulation. Assuming each local population acts as a limit cycle oscillator in the deterministic limit, we use phase reduction and averaging methods to derive the steady-state probability density for pairwise phase differences between oscillators, which is then used to determine the degree of synchronization of the metapopulation. © 2011 American Physical Society.

  12. Rendezvous effects in the diffusion process on bipartite metapopulation networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Lang; Li, Xun; Wang, Bing; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2011-10-01

    Epidemic outbreaks have been shown to be closely related to the rendezvous-induced transmission of infection, which is caused by casual contact with infected individuals in public gatherings. To investigate rendezvous effects in the spread of infectious diseases, we propose an epidemic model on metapopulation networks bipartite-divided into two sets of location and rendezvous nodes. At a given transition rate γ(kk')(p), each individual transfers from location k to rendezvous p (where rendezvous-induced disease incidence occurs) and thereafter moves to location k'. We find that the eigenstructure of a transition-rate-dependent matrix determines the epidemic threshold condition. Both analytical and numerical results show that rendezvous-induced transmission accelerates the progress of infectious diseases, implying the significance of outbreak control measures including prevention of public gatherings or decentralization of a large-scale rendezvous into downsized ones.

  13. Effects of Demographic Noise on the Synchronization of a Metapopulation in a Fluctuating Environment

    KAUST Repository

    Lai, Yi Ming; Newby, Jay; Bressloff, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    to derive the steady-state probability density for pairwise phase differences between oscillators, which is then used to determine the degree of synchronization of the metapopulation. © 2011 American Physical Society.

  14. A spatially-explicit count data regression for modeling the density of forest cockchafer (Melolontha hippocastani larvae in the Hessian Ried (Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Schmidt

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background In this paper, a regression model for predicting the spatial distribution of forest cockchafer larvae in the Hessian Ried region (Germany is presented. The forest cockchafer, a native biotic pest, is a major cause of damage in forests in this region particularly during the regeneration phase. The model developed in this study is based on a systematic sample inventory of forest cockchafer larvae by excavation across the Hessian Ried. These forest cockchafer larvae data were characterized by excess zeros and overdispersion. Methods Using specific generalized additive regression models, different discrete distributions, including the Poisson, negative binomial and zero-inflated Poisson distributions, were compared. The methodology employed allowed the simultaneous estimation of non-linear model effects of causal covariates and, to account for spatial autocorrelation, of a 2-dimensional spatial trend function. In the validation of the models, both the Akaike information criterion (AIC and more detailed graphical procedures based on randomized quantile residuals were used. Results The negative binomial distribution was superior to the Poisson and the zero-inflated Poisson distributions, providing a near perfect fit to the data, which was proven in an extensive validation process. The causal predictors found to affect the density of larvae significantly were distance to water table and percentage of pure clay layer in the soil to a depth of 1 m. Model predictions showed that larva density increased with an increase in distance to the water table up to almost 4 m, after which it remained constant, and with a reduction in the percentage of pure clay layer. However this latter correlation was weak and requires further investigation. The 2-dimensional trend function indicated a strong spatial effect, and thus explained by far the highest proportion of variation in larva density. Conclusions As such the model can be used to support forest

  15. Disentangling the role of seed bank and dispersal in plant metapopulation dynamics using patch occupancy surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manna, F; Pradel, R; Choquet, R; Fréville, H; Cheptou, P-O

    2017-10-01

    In plants, the presence of a seed bank challenges the application of classical metapopulation models to aboveground presence surveys; ignoring seed bank leads to overestimated extinction and colonization rates. In this article, we explore the possibility to detect seed bank using hidden Markov models in the analysis of aboveground patch occupancy surveys of an annual plant with limited dispersal. Patch occupancy data were generated by simulation under two metapopulation sizes (N = 200 and N = 1,000 patches) and different metapopulation scenarios, each scenario being a combination of the presence/absence of a 1-yr seed bank and the presence/absence of limited dispersal in a circular 1-dimension configuration of patches. In addition, because local conditions often vary among patches in natural metapopulations, we simulated patch occupancy data with heterogeneous germination rate and patch disturbance. Seed bank is not observable from aboveground patch occupancy surveys, hence hidden Markov models were designed to account for uncertainty in patch occupancy. We explored their ability to retrieve the correct scenario. For 10 yr surveys and metapopulation sizes of N = 200 or 1,000 patches, the correct metapopulation scenario was detected at a rate close to 100%, whatever the underlying scenario considered. For smaller, more realistic, survey duration, the length for a reliable detection of the correct scenario depends on the metapopulation size: 3 yr for N = 1,000 and 6 yr for N = 200 are enough. Our method remained powerful to disentangle seed bank from dispersal in the presence of patch heterogeneity affecting either seed germination or patch extinction. Our work shows that seed bank and limited dispersal generate different signatures on aboveground patch occupancy surveys. Therefore, our method provides a powerful tool to infer metapopulation dynamics in a wide range of species with an undetectable life form. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  16. The position of place in governing global problems: A mechanistic account of place-as-context, and analysis of transitions towards spatially explicit approaches to climate science and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacGillivray, Brian H.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Place is a central yet undertheorised concept within sustainability science. • Introduces an account of place as the context in which social and environmental mechanisms operate. • Uses this account to critique historical aspatial approaches to climate science and policy. • Traces out shifts towards spatially explicit approaches to climate governance. • A focus on place, heterogeneity, and context maximizes the credibility and policy-relevance of climate science. - Abstract: Place is a central concept within the sustainability sciences, yet it remains somewhat undertheorised, and its relationship to generalisation and scale is unclear. Here, we develop a mechanistic account of place as the fundamental context in which social and environmental mechanisms operate. It is premised on the view that the social and environmental sciences are typically concerned with causal processes and their interaction with context, rather than with a search for laws. We deploy our mechanistic account to critique the neglect of place that characterised the early stages of climate governance, ranging from the highly idealised general circulation and integrated assessment models used to analyze climate change, to the global institutions and technologies designed to manage it. We implicate this neglect of place in the limited progress in tackling climate change in both public and policy spheres, before tracing out recent shifts towards more spatially explicit approaches to climate change science and policy-making. These shifts reflect a move towards an ontology which acknowledges that even where causal drivers are in a sense global in nature (e.g. atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases), their impacts are often mediated through variables that are spatially clustered at multiple scales, moderated by contextual features of the local environment, and interact with the presence of other (localised) stressors in synergistic rather than additive ways. We conclude that a

  17. Landscape genetics highlights the role of bank vole metapopulation dynamics in the epidemiology of Puumala hantavirus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guivier, E; Galan, M; Chaval, Y; Xuéreb, A; Ribas Salvador, A; Poulle, M-L; Voutilainen, L; Henttonen, H; Charbonnel, N; Cosson, J F

    2011-09-01

    Rodent host dynamics and dispersal are thought to be critical for hantavirus epidemiology as they determine pathogen persistence and transmission within and between host populations. We used landscape genetics to investigate how the population dynamics of the bank vole Myodes glareolus, the host of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV), vary with forest fragmentation and influence PUUV epidemiology. We sampled vole populations within the Ardennes, a French PUUV endemic area. We inferred demographic features such as population size, isolation and migration with regard to landscape configuration. We next analysed the influence of M. glareolus population dynamics on PUUV spatial distribution. Our results revealed that the global metapopulation dynamics of bank voles were strongly shaped by landscape features, including suitable patch size and connectivity. Large effective size in forest might therefore contribute to the higher observed levels of PUUV prevalence. By contrast, populations from hedge networks highly suffered from genetic drift and appeared strongly isolated from all other populations. This might result in high probabilities of local extinction for both M. glareolus and PUUV. Besides, we detected signatures of asymmetric bank vole migration from forests to hedges. These movements were likely to sustain PUUV in fragmented landscapes. In conclusion, our study provided arguments in favour of source-sink dynamics shaping PUUV persistence and spread in heterogeneous, Western European temperate landscapes. It illustrated the potential contribution of landscape genetics to the understanding of the epidemiological processes occurring at this local scale. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  18. A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junguo; Fritz, Steffen; van Wesenbeeck, C. F. A.; Fuchs, Michael; You, Liangzhi; Obersteiner, Michael; Yang, Hong

    2008-12-01

    Hunger knows no boundaries or borders. While much research has focused on undernutrition on a national scale, this report evaluates it at subnational levels for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to pinpoint hotspots where the greatest challenges exist. Undernutrition is assessed with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes by investigating anthropometric data on weight and length of individuals. The impact of climate change on production of six major crops (cassava, maize, wheat, sorghum, rice and millet) is analyzed with a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model with the same spatial resolution. Future hotspots of hunger are projected in the context of the anticipated climate, social, economic, and bio-physical changes. The results show that some regions in northern and southwestern Nigeria, Sudan and Angola with a currently high number of people with undernutrition might be able to improve their food security situation mainly through increasing purchasing power. In the near future, regions located in Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, southwestern Niger, and Madagascar are likely to remain hotspots of food insecurity, while regions located in Tanzania, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo might face more serious undernutrition. It is likely that both the groups of regions will suffer from lower capacity of importing food as well as lower per capita calorie availability, while the latter group will probably have sharper reduction in per capita calorie availability. Special attention must be paid to the hotspot areas in order to meet the hunger alleviation goals in SSA.

  19. Constrained minimization problems for the reproduction number in meta-population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poghotanyan, Gayane; Feng, Zhilan; Glasser, John W; Hill, Andrew N

    2018-02-14

    The basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) can be considerably higher in an SIR model with heterogeneous mixing compared to that from a corresponding model with homogeneous mixing. For example, in the case of measles, mumps and rubella in San Diego, CA, Glasser et al. (Lancet Infect Dis 16(5):599-605, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)00004-9 ), reported an increase of 70% in [Formula: see text] when heterogeneity was accounted for. Meta-population models with simple heterogeneous mixing functions, e.g., proportionate mixing, have been employed to identify optimal vaccination strategies using an approach based on the gradient of the effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), which consists of partial derivatives of [Formula: see text] with respect to the proportions immune [Formula: see text] in sub-groups i (Feng et al. in J Theor Biol 386:177-187, 2015.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.09.006 ; Math Biosci 287:93-104, 2017.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2016.09.013 ). These papers consider cases in which an optimal vaccination strategy exists. However, in general, the optimal solution identified using the gradient may not be feasible for some parameter values (i.e., vaccination coverages outside the unit interval). In this paper, we derive the analytic conditions under which the optimal solution is feasible. Explicit expressions for the optimal solutions in the case of [Formula: see text] sub-populations are obtained, and the bounds for optimal solutions are derived for [Formula: see text] sub-populations. This is done for general mixing functions and examples of proportionate and preferential mixing are presented. Of special significance is the result that for general mixing schemes, both [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are bounded below and above by their corresponding expressions when mixing is proportionate and isolated, respectively.

  20. A spatially explicit assessment of the wind energy potential in response to an increased distance between wind turbines and settlements in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masurowski, Frank; Drechsler, Martin; Frank, Karin

    2016-01-01

    Setting a minimum distance between wind turbines and settlements is an important policy to mitigate the conflict between renewable energy production and the well-being of residents. We present a novel approach to assess the impact of varying minimum distances on the wind energy potential of a region, state or country. We show that this impact can be predicted from the spatial structure of the settlements. Applying this approach to Germany, we identify those regions where the energy potential very sensitively reacts to a change in the minimum distance. In relative terms the reduction of the energy potential is maximal in the north-west and the south-east of Germany. In absolute terms it is maximal in the north. This information helps deciding in which regions the minimum distance may be increased without large losses in the energy potential. - Highlights: • Distance between wind turbines and settlements is an important policy criterion. • We predict the impact of varying the distance on the regional energy potential. • The impact can be explained from the settlement structure. • The impact varies by region and German Federal state.

  1. The role of spatial information in the preservation of the shrimp nursery function of mangroves: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for the assessment of land use trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavalloni, Matteo; Groeneveld, Rolf A; van Zwieten, Paul A M

    2014-10-01

    Conversion to aquaculture affects the provision of important ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems, and this effect depends strongly on the location of the conversion. We introduce in a bio-economic mathematical programming model relevant spatial elements that affect the provision of the nursery habitat service of mangroves: (1) direct or indirect connection of mangroves to watercourses; (2) the spatial allocation of aquaculture ponds; and (3) the presence of non-linear relations between mangrove extent and juvenile recruitment to wild shrimp populations. By tracing out the production possibilities frontier of wild and cultivated shrimp, the model assesses the role of spatial information in the trade-off between aquaculture and the nursery habitat function using spatial elements relevant to our model of a mangrove area in Ca Mau Province, Viet Nam. Results show that where mangrove forests have to coexist with shrimp aquaculture ponds, the inclusion of specific spatial information on ecosystem functions in considerations of land allocation can achieve aquaculture benefits while largely preserving the economic benefits generated by the nursery habitat function. However, if spatial criteria are ignored, ill-advised land allocation decisions can easily lead to a collapse of the mangrove's nursery function. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Interplay between spatially explicit sediment sourcing, hierarchical river-network structure, and in-channel bed material sediment transport and storage dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czuba, Jonathan A.; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Gran, Karen B.; Belmont, Patrick; Wilcock, Peter R.

    2017-05-01

    Understanding how sediment moves along source to sink pathways through watersheds—from hillslopes to channels and in and out of floodplains—is a fundamental problem in geomorphology. We contribute to advancing this understanding by modeling the transport and in-channel storage dynamics of bed material sediment on a river network over a 600 year time period. Specifically, we present spatiotemporal changes in bed sediment thickness along an entire river network to elucidate how river networks organize and process sediment supply. We apply our model to sand transport in the agricultural Greater Blue Earth River Basin in Minnesota. By casting the arrival of sediment to links of the network as a Poisson process, we derive analytically (under supply-limited conditions) the time-averaged probability distribution function of bed sediment thickness for each link of the river network for any spatial distribution of inputs. Under transport-limited conditions, the analytical assumptions of the Poisson arrival process are violated (due to in-channel storage dynamics) where we find large fluctuations and periodicity in the time series of bed sediment thickness. The time series of bed sediment thickness is the result of dynamics on a network in propagating, altering, and amalgamating sediment inputs in sometimes unexpected ways. One key insight gleaned from the model is that there can be a small fraction of reaches with relatively low-transport capacity within a nonequilibrium river network acting as "bottlenecks" that control sediment to downstream reaches, whereby fluctuations in bed elevation can dissociate from signals in sediment supply.

  3. Eco-SpaCE: An object-oriented, spatially explicit model to assess the risk of multiple environmental stressors on terrestrial vertebrate populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, Mark; Ragas, Ad M.J.; Plasmeijer, Rinus; Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, A. Jan

    2010-01-01

    Wildlife organisms are exposed to a combination of chemical, biological and physical stressors. Information about the relative impact of each stressor can support management decisions, e.g., by the allocation of resources to counteract those stressors that cause most harm. The present paper introduces Eco-SpaCE; a novel receptor-oriented cumulative exposure model for wildlife species that includes relevant ecological processes such as spatial habitat variation, food web relations, predation, and life history. A case study is presented in which the predicted mortality due to cadmium contamination is compared with the predicted mortality due to flooding, starvation, and predation for three small mammal species (Wood mouse, Common vole, and European mole) and a predator (Little owl) living in a lowland floodplain along the river Rhine in The Netherlands. Results indicated that cadmium is the principal stressor for European mole and Little owl populations. Wood mouse and Common vole population densities were mainly influenced by flooding and food availability. Their estimated population sizes were consistent with numbers reported in literature. Predictions for cadmium accumulation and flooding stress were in agreement with field data. The large uncertainty around cadmium toxicity for wildlife leads to the conclusion that more species-specific ecotoxicological data is required for more realistic risk assessments. The predictions for starvation were subject to the limited quantitative information on biomass obtainable as food for vertebrates. It is concluded that the modelling approach employed in Eco-SpaCE, combining ecology with ecotoxicology, provides a viable option to explore the relative contribution of contamination to the overall stress in an ecosystem. This can help environmental managers to prioritize management options, and to reduce local risks.

  4. Investigations on socio economic indicators of French Alps ski industry from an explicit spatial modelling of managed snow on ski slopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spandre, Pierre; François, Hugues; Morin, Samuel; George-Marcelpoil, Emmanuelle; Lafaysse, Matthieu

    2017-04-01

    Investigations of the capacity of ski resorts to anticipate, cope with and recover from the impact of natural snow scarcity through snow management (grooming, snowmaking) have been realized in most of the major regions in terms of international ski offer although not in the French Alps hitherto. The present work therefore introduces an innovative approach for the investigation of socio economic implications of changes in snow conditions for the French Alps ski resorts based on a panel of 129 resorts representing 96% of the total French Alps ski lifts infrastructures. We integrated detailed spatial representations of ski resorts (including priority areas for snowmaking equipment) along with physically based snowpack modelling (including the physical impact of grooming and snowmaking). The viability of ski resorts was further adressed thanks to a commonly used rule based on the snow season duration at the village and ski lifts average elevations along with the development of original viability indicators of snow conditions in the French Alps ski resorts based on the specific periods for the economic success of winter sports: Christmas and February school holidays. Such indicators were correlated to the number of ski lifts tickets sales over the 2001 - 2014 period and proved to be relevant to investigate and predict the evolutions of ski lifts tickets sales under the current ski market conditions in the French Alps. Our results outlined the contrast of snow conditions between French Alps ski resorts, even when accounting for snow management, particularly regarding the geographical location of resorts (Southern versus Northern Alps), the size and related elevation range of ski resorts. Our physically based approach also allowed to compute the water and energy requirements for the production of Machine Made snow since the start of the development of snowguns in the French Alps. Our computations proved to be strongly correlated to the observed amounts of water from the

  5. Large Variations in HIV-1 Viral Load Explained by Shifting-Mosaic Metapopulation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lythgoe, Katrina A.; Blanquart, François

    2016-01-01

    The viral population of HIV-1, like many pathogens that cause systemic infection, is structured and differentiated within the body. The dynamics of cellular immune trafficking through the blood and within compartments of the body has also received wide attention. Despite these advances, mathematical models, which are widely used to interpret and predict viral and immune dynamics in infection, typically treat the infected host as a well-mixed homogeneous environment. Here, we present mathematical, analytical, and computational results that demonstrate that consideration of the spatial structure of the viral population within the host radically alters predictions of previous models. We study the dynamics of virus replication and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) within a metapopulation of spatially segregated patches, representing T cell areas connected by circulating blood and lymph. The dynamics of the system depend critically on the interaction between CTLs and infected cells at the within-patch level. We show that for a wide range of parameters, the system admits an unexpected outcome called the shifting-mosaic steady state. In this state, the whole body’s viral population is stable over time, but the equilibrium results from an underlying, highly dynamic process of local infection and clearance within T-cell centers. Notably, and in contrast to previous models, this new model can explain the large differences in set-point viral load (SPVL) observed between patients and their distribution, as well as the relatively low proportion of cells infected at any one time, and alters the predicted determinants of viral load variation. PMID:27706164

  6. Extinction Time of a Metapopulation Driven by Colored Correlated Noises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiangcheng

    2010-01-01

    The simplified incidence function model which is driven by the colored correlated noises is employed to investigate the extinction time of a metapopulation perturbed by environments. The approximate Fokker-Planck Equation and the mean first passage time which denotes the extinction time (T ex ) are obtained by virtue of the Novikov theorem and the Fox approach. After introducing a noise intensity ratio and a dimensionless parameter R = D/α (D and α are the multiplicative and additive colored noise intensities respectively), and then performing numerical computations, the results indicate that: (i) The absolute value of correlation strength Λ and its correlation time τ 3 play opposite roles on the T ex ; (ii) For the case of 0 2 play opposite roles on the T ex in which R > 1 is the best condition, and there is one-peak structure on the T ex - D plot; (iii) For the case of -1 1 play opposite roles on the T ex in which R ex - τ 2 plot. (general)

  7. A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattsson, Brady J.; Runge, M.C.; Devries, J.H.; Boomer, G.S.; Eadie, J.M.; Haukos, D.A.; Fleskes, J.P.; Koons, D.N.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Clark, R.G.

    2012-01-01

    We developed and evaluated the performance of a metapopulation model enabling managers to examine, for the first time, the consequences of alternative management strategies involving habitat conditions and hunting on both harvest opportunity and carrying capacity (i.e., equilibrium population size in the absence of harvest) for migratory waterfowl at a continental scale. Our focus is on the northern pintail (Anas acuta; hereafter, pintail), which serves as a useful model species to examine the potential for integrating waterfowl harvest and habitat management in North America. We developed submodel structure capturing important processes for pintail populations during breeding, fall migration, winter, and spring migration while encompassing spatial structure representing three core breeding areas and two core nonbreeding areas. A number of continental-scale predictions from our baseline parameterization (e.g., carrying capacity of 5.5 million, equilibrium population size of 2.9 million and harvest rate of 12% at maximum sustained yield [MSY]) were within 10% of those from the pintail harvest strategy under current use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. To begin investigating the interaction of harvest and habitat management, we examined equilibrium population conditions for pintail at the continental scale across a range of harvest rates while perturbing model parameters to represent: (1) a 10% increase in breeding habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population (PR); and (2) a 10% increase in nonbreeding habitat quantity along in the Gulf Coast (GC). Based on our model and analysis, a greater increase in carrying capacity and sustainable harvest was seen when increasing a proxy for habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population. This finding and underlying assumptions must be critically evaluated, however, before specific management recommendations can be made. To make such recommendations, we require (1) extended, refined submodels with additional

  8. Crop water productivity under increasing irrigation capacities in Romania. A spatially-explicit assessment of winter wheat and maize cropping systems in the southern lowlands of the country

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogaru, Diana

    2016-04-01

    Improved water use efficiency in agriculture is a key issue in terms of sustainable management and consumption of water resources in the context of peoples' increasing food demands and preferences, economic growth and agricultural adaptation options to climate variability and change. Crop Water Productivity (CWP), defined as the ratio of yield (or value of harvested crop) to actual evapotranspiration or as the ratio of yield (or value of harvested crop) to volume of supplied irrigation water (Molden et al., 1998), is a useful indicator in the evaluation of water use efficiency and ultimately of cropland management, particularly in the case of regions affected by or prone to drought and where irrigation application is essential for achieving expected productions. The present study investigates the productivity of water in winter wheat and maize cropping systems in the Romanian Plain (49 594 sq. km), an important agricultural region in the southern part of the country which is increasingly affected by drought and dry spells (Sandu and Mateescu, 2014). The scope of the analysis is to assess the gains and losses in CWP for the two crops, by considering increased irrigated cropland and improved fertilization, these being the most common measures potentially and already implemented by the farmers. In order to capture the effects of such measures on agricultural water use, the GIS-based EPIC crop-growth model (GEPIC) (Williams et al., 1989; Liu, 2009) was employed to simulate yields, seasonal evapotranspiration from crops and volume of irrigation water in the Romanian Plain for the 2002 - 2013 interval with focus on 2007 and 2010, two representative years for dry and wet periods, respectively. The GEPIC model operates on a daily time step, while the geospatial input datasets for this analysis (e.g. climate data, soil classes and soil parameters, land use) were harmonized at 1km resolution grid cell. The sources of the spatial data are mainly the national profile agencies

  9. The role of spatial information in the preservation of the shrimp nursery function of mangroves: A spatially explicit bio-economic model for the assessment of land use trade-offs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zavalloni, M.; Groeneveld, R.A.; Zwieten, van P.A.M.

    2014-01-01

    Conversion to aquaculture affects the provision of important ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems, and this effect depends strongly on the location of the conversion. We introduce in a bioeconomic mathematical programming model relevant spatial elements that affect the provision of the

  10. Spatial distributions of niche-constructing populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaozhuo Han

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Niche construction theory regards organisms not only as the object of natural selection but also an active subject that can change their own selective pressure through eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Through reviewing the existing works on the theoretical models of niche construction, here we present the progress made on how niche construction influences genetic structure of spatially structured populations and the spatial-temporal dynamics of metapopulations, with special focuses on mathematical models and simulation methods. The majority of results confirmed that niche construction can significantly alter the evolutionary trajectories of structured populations. Organism-environmental interactions induced by niche construction can have profound influence on the dynamics, competition and diversity of metapopulations. It can affect fine-scale spatially distribution of species and spatial heterogeneity of the environment. We further propose a few research directions with potentials, such as applying adaptive dynamics or spatial game theory to explore the effect of niche construction on phenotypic evolution and diversification.

  11. Spatially and temporally explicit water footprint accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mekonnen, Mesfin

    2011-01-01

    The earth’s freshwater resources are subject to increasing pressure in the form of consumptive water use and pollution (Postel, 2000; WWAP, 2003, 2006, 2009). Quantitative assessment of the green, blue and grey water footprint of global production and consumption can be regarded as a key in

  12. Lumpers or splitters? Evaluating recovering and management plans for metapopulations of herring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kell, L.T.; Dickey-Collas, M.; Hintzen, N.T.; Nash, R.D.M.; Pilling, G.M.

    2009-01-01

    The long-term management of a stock representing a metapopulation has been simulated in a case study loosely based upon herring to the west of the British isles, where stocks are currently assessed and managed by management area, although there is evidence of mixing between stocks (in terms of

  13. Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

    2017-01-01

    The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic-landscape metapopulation...

  14. Marsh Fritillary (Euphydryasaurinia) in the Czech Republic: monitoring, metapopulation structure, and conservation of an endangered butterfly

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hůla, V.; Konvička, Martin; Pavlíčko, A.; Fric, Zdeněk

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 15, - (2004), s. 231-241 ISSN 0785-8760 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB6007306; GA ČR GD206/03/H034 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z5007907 Keywords : monitoring * metapopulation structure Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.298, year: 2004

  15. Spatially explicit modeling of annual and seasonal habitat for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and Northeastern California—An updated decision-support tool for management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Ricca, Mark A.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Sanchez-Chopitea, Erika; Mauch, Kimberly; Niell, Lara; Gardner, Scott; Espinosa, Shawn; Delehanty, David J.

    2016-05-20

    Successful adaptive management hinges largely upon integrating new and improved sources of information as they become available. As a timely example of this tenet, we updated a management decision support tool that was previously developed for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereinafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations in Nevada and California. Specifically, recently developed spatially explicit habitat maps derived from empirical data played a key role in the conservation of this species facing listing under the Endangered Species Act. This report provides an updated process for mapping relative habitat suitability and management categories for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California (Coates and others, 2014, 2016). These updates include: (1) adding radio and GPS telemetry locations from sage-grouse monitored at multiple sites during 2014 to the original location dataset beginning in 1998; (2) integrating output from high resolution maps (1–2 m2) of sagebrush and pinyon-juniper cover as covariates in resource selection models; (3) modifying the spatial extent of the analyses to match newly available vegetation layers; (4) explicit modeling of relative habitat suitability during three seasons (spring, summer, winter) that corresponded to critical life history periods for sage-grouse (breeding, brood-rearing, over-wintering); (5) accounting for differences in habitat availability between more mesic sagebrush steppe communities in the northern part of the study area and drier Great Basin sagebrush in more southerly regions by categorizing continuous region-wide surfaces of habitat suitability index (HSI) with independent locations falling within two hydrological zones; (6) integrating the three seasonal maps into a composite map of annual relative habitat suitability; (7) deriving updated land management categories based on previously determined cut-points for intersections of habitat suitability and an updated index of sage

  16. Disobedient epiphytes: colonization and extinction rates in a metapopulation of Lepanthes rupestris (Orchidaceae) contradict theoretical predictions based on patch connectivity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kindlmann, Pavel; Meléndez-Ackerman, E. J.; Tremblay, R. L.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 175, č. 4 (2014), s. 598-606 ISSN 0024-4074 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : connectivity * metapopulation theory * orchids Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 2.534, year: 2014

  17. Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: The importance of replication in landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Brian K.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Kovach, Ryan; Whited, Diane C.; Narum, Shawn R.; Matala, Andrew P.; Ackerman, Michael W.; Garner, B. A.; Kimball, John S; Stanford, Jack A.; Luikart, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise FST) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and FST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and FST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes (N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.

  18. Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2014-08-01

    Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined

  19. Rising relative fluctuation as a warning indicator of discontinuous transitions in symbiotic metapopulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumi, Neeme; Laas, Katrin; Mankin, Romi

    2015-11-01

    The long-time limit behavior of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model of a symbiotic metapopulation subjected to generalized Verhulst self-regulation is considered. The influence of a time-variable environment on the carrying capacities of subpopulations is modeled as a periodic deterministic part and a symmetric dichotomous noise. Relying on the mean-field approach it is established that at certain parameter regimes the mean field (average subpopulations size) exhibits hysteresis in respect to the noise correlation time, manifested in the appearance of colored-noise-induced discontinuous transitions. Especially, it is shown that the relative fluctuation of the subpopulation sizes exhibits accelerated increase prior to abrupt transitions of the metapopulation state. Moreover, in certain cases the autocorrelation function of the population sizes demonstrates anticorrelation at some values of the lag time.

  20. Metapopulation dynamics of the mistletoe and its host in savanna areas with different fire occurrence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grazielle Sales Teodoro

    Full Text Available Mistletoes are aerial hemiparasitic plants which occupy patches of favorable habitat (host trees surrounded by unfavorable habitat and may be possibly modeled as a metapopulation. A metapopulation is defined as a subdivided population that persists due to the balance between colonization and extinction in discrete habitat patches. Our aim was to evaluate the dynamics of the mistletoe Psittacanthus robustus and its host Vochysia thyrsoidea in three Brazilian savanna areas using a metapopulation approach. We also evaluated how the differences in terms of fire occurrence affected the dynamic of those populations (two areas burned during the study and one was fire protected. We monitored the populations at six-month intervals. P. robustus population structure and dynamics met the expected criteria for a metapopulation: i the suitable habitats for the mistletoe occur in discrete patches; (ii local populations went extinct during the study and (iii colonization of previously non-occupied patches occurred. The ratio of occupied patches decreased in all areas with time. Local mistletoe populations went extinct due to two different causes: patch extinction in area with no fire and fire killing in the burned areas. In a burned area, the largest decrease of occupied patch ratios occurred due to a fire event that killed the parasites without, however, killing the host trees. The greatest mortality of V. thyrsoidea occurred in the area without fire. In this area, all the dead trees supported mistletoe individuals and no mortality was observed for parasite-free trees. Because P. robustus is a fire sensitive species and V. thyrsoidea is fire tolerant, P. robustus seems to increase host mortality, but its effect is lessened by periodic burning that reduces the parasite loads.

  1. Extirpation and recolonization in a metapopulation of an endangered fish, the tidewater goby

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, K.D.; Swift, C.C.; Ambrose, R.F.

    1999-01-01

    The tidewater goby (Eucyclogobius newberryi), an endangered species in the United States, occurs in a series of isolated coastal wetlands in California. Using historical presence-absence data and our own surveys, we estimated annual rates of extirpation and recolonization for several populations of the goby in southern California. As predicted, large wetlands had lower rates of extirpation than small wetlands. There was a negative but statistically nonsignificant correlation between recolonization rate and distance to the nearest northerly source population. Populations at small sites were sensitive to drought, presumably because droughts can eliminate suitable habitat at small wetlands. Populations in small wetlands have declined over time, even after accounting for variation in stream flow, supporting the species' endangered status. Our study emphasizes the need to understand metapopulation dynamics for conserving species where the unit of conservation is a local population. It is also emphasizes the importance of not treating metapopulations as identical units. Finally, our results provide a means for describing the decline of a species that is complex in time and space and provide insight into how to target protection measures among metapopulations.

  2. Multi-state models: metapopulation and life history analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnason, A. N.

    2004-06-01

    state ambiguity (dormant or dead? and can permit assessing the influence of environmental covariates on this proportion. The presentation by Christophe Barbraud (Barbraud & Weimerskirk, 2004, included in these proceedings as an extended abstract, takes the life–history trade–off application of MSMR models a step further by taking into account environmental and individual covariates on survival. The trade–off considered is between survival and transitions among several states describing breeding experience of long–lived petrels and how it is affected by harsh climate conditions. The study is a showcase for the powers of the new software (U–Care and M–Surge. The paper by Senar and Conroy (Senar & Conroy, 2004 is a novel application of MSMR models to animal epidemiology. States included age, sex and infected state and the model permits estimation of survival, infection, and recovery rates for birds during an outbreak of Serin avian pox. The use of a MSMR model permits estimation of the prevalence rate unconfounded by differences in capture rates of infected and non–infected birds. Here too there is a potential for ambiguous states in that the uninfected state might include both immune post–infection animals and susceptible pre–infection animals and these groups would likely have different survival rates. The authors are able to deal with this because of the length of the study and the availability of data outside the main outbreak. Finally, this session includes a paper by Jamieson and Brooks (Jamieson & Brooks, 2004 that appears to lie outside the MSMR theme of this session but which was included because of its relevanceto metapopulation analyses. Our call for papers for this session also invited papers illustrating multi– population meta–analysis and use of Bayesian methods. By these criteria, their paper is no outlier. It addresses the longstanding question of density dependence in game bird survival; a question of great interest to theoretical

  3. Designing metropolitan landscapes for biodiversity: deriving guidelines from metapopulation ecology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Opdam, P.F.M.; Steingröver, E.G.

    2008-01-01

    The decentralization of planning is giving local planning groups more power in decision making on the spatial development of metropolitan landscapes. However, because scientific knowledge is rarely used in these decision-making processes, there is a risk of discrepancies between the conservation

  4. Invasive species control in a one-dimensional metapopulation network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walker, A.N.; Poos, J.J.; Groeneveld, R.A.

    2015-01-01

    The growth and spread of established Invasive Alien Species (IAS) cause significant ecological and economic damages. Minimising the costs of controlling, and the damages from, IAS depends on the spatial dynamics and uncertainty regarding IAS spread. This study expands on existing modelling

  5. Explicit dissipative structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roessler, O.E.

    1987-01-01

    Dissipative structures consisting of a few macrovariables arise out of a sea of reversible microvariables. Unexpected residual effects of the massive underlying reversibility, on the macrolevel, cannot therefore be excluded. In the age of molecular-dynamics simulations, explicit dissipative structures like excitable systems (explicit observers) can be generated in a computer from first reversible principles. A class of classical, 1-D Hamiltonian systems of chaotic type is considered which has the asset that the trajectorial behavior in phase space can be understood geometrically. If, as nuatural, the number of particle types is much smaller than that of particles, the Gibbs symmetry must be taken into account. The permutation invariance drastically changes the behavior in phase space (quasi-periodization). The explicity observer becomes effectively reversible on a short time scale. In consequence, his ability to measure microscopic motions is suspended in a characteristic fashion. Unlike quantum mechanics whose holistic nature cannot be transcended, the present holistic (internal-interface) effects - mimicking the former to some extent - can be understood fully in principle

  6. Metapopulation Dynamics of the Softshell Clam, Mya arenaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    these sites represent the species’ native and introduced range. I was therefore able to assess connectivity on larger temporal and spatial scales, and...seawater weekly to therefore also more binding sites for Ca-2> and its competing quantify the changes in its chemistry over time, we did not ions...21103. Mg/(a and Sr-Ca ramtios of Biourgoini, BY,. 19910. Mitilus edulis shell as a biointdicator of lead pollutton: Porn -es. coral skeleton

  7. Making the Tacit Explicit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasco, Maribel

    2015-01-01

    The article proposes an approach, broadly inspired by culturally inclusive pedagogy, to facilitate international student academic adaptation based on rendering tacit aspects of local learning cultures explicit to international full degree students, rather than adapting them. Preliminary findings...... are presented from a focus group-based exploratory study of international student experiences at different stages of their studies at a Danish business school, one of Denmark’s most international universities. The data show how a major source of confusion for these students has to do with the tacit logics...... and expectations that shape how the formal steps of the learning cycle are understood and enacted locally, notably how learning and assessment moments are defined and related to one another. Theoretically, the article draws on tacit knowledge and sense-making theories to analyse student narratives...

  8. Patch dynamics and metapopulation theory: the case of successional species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarasekare, P; Possingham, H

    2001-04-07

    We present a mathematical framework that combines extinction-colonization dynamics with the dynamics of patch succession. We draw an analogy between the epidemiological categorization of individuals (infected, susceptible, latent and resistant) and the patch structure of a spatially heterogeneous landscape (occupied-suitable, empty-suitable, occupied-unsuitable and empty-unsuitable). This approach allows one to consider life-history attributes that influence persistence in patchy environments (e.g., longevity, colonization ability) in concert with extrinsic processes (e.g., disturbances, succession) that lead to spatial heterogeneity in patch suitability. It also allows the incorporation of seed banks and other dormant life forms, thus broadening patch occupancy dynamics to include sink habitats. We use the model to investigate how equilibrium patch occupancy is influenced by four critical parameters: colonization rate, extinction rate, disturbance frequency and the rate of habitat succession. This analysis leads to general predictions about how the temporal scaling of patch succession and extinction-colonization dynamics influences long-term persistence. We apply the model to herbaceous, early-successional species that inhabit open patches created by periodic disturbances. We predict the minimum disturbance frequency required for viable management of such species in the Florida scrub ecosystem. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

  9. Multilevel selection and neighbourhood effects from individual to metapopulation in a wild passerine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Laiolo

    Full Text Available Multilevel selection has rarely been studied in the ecological context of animal populations, in which neighbourhood effects range from competition among territorial neighbours to source-sink effects among local populations. By studying a Dupont's lark Chersophilus duponti metapopulation, we analyze neighbourhood effects mediated by song repertoires on fitness components at the individual level (life-span and population level (growth rate. As a sexual/aggressive signal with strong effects on fitness, birdsong creates an opportunity for group selection via neighbour interactions, but may also have population-wide effects by conveying information on habitat suitability to dispersing individuals. Within populations, we found a disruptive pattern of selection at the individual level and an opposite, stabilizing pattern at the group level. Males singing the most complex songs had the longest life-span, but individuals with the poorest repertoires lived longer than 'average' males, a finding that likely reflects two male strategies with respect to fitness and sexual trait expression. Individuals from groups with intermediate repertoires had the longest life-span, likely benefitting from conspecific signalling to attract females up to the detrimental spread of competitive interactions in groups with superior vocal skills. Within the metapopulation selection was directional but again followed opposite patterns at the two levels: Populations had the highest growth rate when inhabiting local patches with complex repertoires surrounded by patches with simple repertoires. Here the song may impact metapopulation dynamics by guiding prospecting individuals towards populations advertising habitat quality. Two fitness components linked to viability were therefore influenced by the properties of the group, and birdsong was the target of selection, contributing to linking social/sexual processes at the local scale with regional population dynamics.

  10. Long-Distance Rescue and Slow Extinction Dynamics Govern Multiscale Metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huth, Géraldine; Haegeman, Bart; Pitard, Estelle; Munoz, François

    2015-10-01

    Rare long-distance dispersal is known to be critical for species dynamics, but how the interplay between short- and long-distance colonization influences regional persistence in a fragmented habitat remains poorly understood. We propose a metapopulation model that combines local colonization within habitat islands and long-distance colonization between islands. We study how regional occupancy dynamics are affected by the multiscale colonization process. We find that the island size distribution (ISD) is a key driver of the long-term occupancy dynamics. When the ISD is heterogeneous-that is, when the size of islands is variable-we show that extinction dynamics become very slow. We demonstrate that this behavior is unrelated to the well-known extinction debt near the critical extinction threshold. Hence, this finding questions the equivalence between extinction debt and critical transitions in the context of metapopulation collapse. Furthermore, we show that long-distance colonization can rescue small islands from extinction and sustain a steady regional occupancy. These results provide novel theoretical and practical insights into extinction dynamics and persistence in fragmented habitats and are thus relevant for the design of conservation strategies.

  11. Supplementary Material for: Linking local retention, self-recruitment, and persistence in marine metapopulations

    KAUST Repository

    Lett, Christophe

    2016-01-01

    Three indices of larval retention have been used in the literature to assess the tendency for self-maintenance of local marine populations: local retention (LR), self-recruitment (SR), and relative local retention (RLR). Only one of these, LR, defined as the ratio of locally produced settlement to local egg production, has a clear relationship to self-persistence of individual sites. However, SR, the ratio of locally produced settlement to settlement of all origins at a site, is generally easier to measure experimentally. We use theoretical, simulation, and empirical approaches to bridge the gap between these different indices, and demonstrate that there is a proportional relationship between SR and LR for metapopulations close to a stable state and with lifetime egg production (LEP) approximately uniform over space. Similarly, for systems where larval mortality rates are a relatively uniform function of release site, RLR (defined as the ratio of locally produced settlement to all settlement of local origin) and LR will also be proportional. Therefore, SR and RLR provide information on relative rates of LR for systems satisfying these conditions. Furthermore, the ratio between LR and SR can be used to evaluate global persistence of metapopulations, and therefore provides valuable information not necessarily available if only LR is considered.

  12. Linking local retention, self-recruitment, and persistence in marine metapopulations

    KAUST Repository

    Lett, Christophe

    2015-08-01

    Three indices of larval retention have been used in the literature to assess the tendency for self-maintenance of local marine populations: local retention (LR), self-recruitment (SR), and relative local retention (RLR). Only one of these, LR, defined as the ratio of locally produced settlement to local egg production, has a clear relationship to self-persistence of individual sites. However, SR, the ratio of locally produced settlement to settlement of all origins at a site, is generally easier to measure experimentally. We use theoretical, simulation, and empirical approaches to bridge the gap between these different indices, and demonstrate that there is a proportional relationship between SR and LR for metapopulations close to a stable state and with lifetime egg production (LEP) approximately uniform over space. Similarly, for systems where larval mortality rates are a relatively uniform function of release site, RLR (defined as the ratio of locally produced settlement to all settlement of local origin) and LR will also be proportional. Therefore, SR and RLR provide information on relative rates of LR for systems satisfying these conditions. Furthermore, the ratio between LR and SR can be used to evaluate global persistence of metapopulations, and therefore provides valuable information not necessarily available if only LR is considered.

  13. Implicit, explicit and speculative knowledge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ditmarsch, H.; French, T.; Velázquez-Quesada, F.R.; Wáng, Y.N.

    We compare different epistemic notions in the presence of awareness of propositional variables: the logic of implicit knowledge (in which explicit knowledge is definable), the logic of explicit knowledge, and the logic of speculative knowledge. Speculative knowledge is a novel epistemic notion that

  14. Viability of meta-populations of wetland birds in a fragmented landscape: Testing the key-patch approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermaat, J.E.; Vigneau, N.; Omtzigt, N.

    2008-01-01

    The key patch approach assumes that metapopulations in fragmented landscapes are likely to be viable with at least one "key" sub-population that is sufficiently large to ensure re-colonization of surrounding minor habitat patches. It is based on a minimum viable number of breeding pairs and

  15. Matrix matters: differences of grand skink metapopulation parameters in native tussock grasslands and exotic pasture grasslands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstanze Gebauer

    Full Text Available Modelling metapopulation dynamics is a potentially very powerful tool for conservation biologists. In recent years, scientists have broadened the range of variables incorporated into metapopulation modelling from using almost exclusively habitat patch size and isolation, to the inclusion of attributes of the matrix and habitat patch quality. We investigated the influence of habitat patch and matrix characteristics on the metapopulation parameters of a highly endangered lizard species, the New Zealand endemic grand skink (Oligosoma grande taking into account incomplete detectability. The predictive ability of the developed zxmetapopulation model was assessed through cross-validation of the data and with an independent data-set. Grand skinks occur on scattered rock-outcrops surrounded by indigenous tussock (bunch and pasture grasslands therefore implying a metapopulation structure. We found that the type of matrix surrounding the habitat patch was equally as important as the size of habitat patch for estimating occupancy, colonisation and extinction probabilities. Additionally, the type of matrix was more important than the physical distance between habitat patches for colonisation probabilities. Detection probability differed between habitat patches in the two matrix types and between habitat patches with different attributes such as habitat patch composition and abundance of vegetation on the outcrop. The developed metapopulation models can now be used for management decisions on area protection, monitoring, and the selection of translocation sites for the grand skink. Our study showed that it is important to incorporate not only habitat patch size and distance between habitat patches, but also those matrix type and habitat patch attributes which are vital in the ecology of the target species.

  16. Explicit strong stability preserving multistep Runge–Kutta methods

    KAUST Repository

    Bresten, Christopher; Gottlieb, Sigal; Grant, Zachary; Higgs, Daniel; Ketcheson, David I.; Né meth, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    High-order spatial discretizations of hyperbolic PDEs are often designed to have strong stability properties, such as monotonicity. We study explicit multistep Runge-Kutta strong stability preserving (SSP) time integration methods for use with such discretizations. We prove an upper bound on the SSP coefficient of explicit multistep Runge-Kutta methods of order two and above. Numerical optimization is used to find optimized explicit methods of up to five steps, eight stages, and tenth order. These methods are tested on the linear advection and nonlinear Buckley-Leverett equations, and the results for the observed total variation diminishing and/or positivity preserving time-step are presented.

  17. Explicit strong stability preserving multistep Runge–Kutta methods

    KAUST Repository

    Bresten, Christopher

    2015-10-15

    High-order spatial discretizations of hyperbolic PDEs are often designed to have strong stability properties, such as monotonicity. We study explicit multistep Runge-Kutta strong stability preserving (SSP) time integration methods for use with such discretizations. We prove an upper bound on the SSP coefficient of explicit multistep Runge-Kutta methods of order two and above. Numerical optimization is used to find optimized explicit methods of up to five steps, eight stages, and tenth order. These methods are tested on the linear advection and nonlinear Buckley-Leverett equations, and the results for the observed total variation diminishing and/or positivity preserving time-step are presented.

  18. "Tacit Knowledge" versus "Explicit Knowledge"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanchez, Ron

    creators and carriers. By contrast, the explicit knowledge approach emphasizes processes for articulating knowledge held by individuals, the design of organizational approaches for creating new knowledge, and the development of systems (including information systems) to disseminate articulated knowledge...

  19. Explicit Versus Implicit Income Insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas J. Kniesner; James P. Z‎iliak

    2001-01-01

    October 2001 (Revised from July 2001). Abstract: By supplementing income explicitly through payments or implicitly through taxes collected, income-based taxes and transfers make disposable income less variable. Because disposable income determines consumption, policies that smooth disposable income also create welfare improving consumption insurance. With data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics we find that annual consumption variation is reduced by almost 20 percent due to explicit and ...

  20. Overcoming restoration paradigms: value of the historical record and metapopulation dynamics in native oyster restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romuald N. Lipcius

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Restoration strategies for native oyster populations rely on multiple sources of information, which often conflict due to time- and space-varying patterns in abundance and distribution. For instance, strategies based on population connectivity and disease resistance can differ, and extant and historical records of abundance and distribution are often at odds, such that the optimal strategy is unclear and valuable restoration sites may be excluded from consideration. This was the case for the Lynnhaven River subestuary of lower Chesapeake Bay, which was deemed unsuitable for Eastern Oyster restoration based on physical conditions, disease challenge, and extant oyster abundance. Consequently, we (i evaluated previously unknown historical data from the 1800s, (ii quantified extant oyster recruitment and abundance, physical conditions, and disease presence on constructed restoration reefs and alternative substrates, and (iii assessed simulations from biophysical models to identify potential restoration sites in the metapopulation. The collective data distinguished numerous restoration sites (i in the polyhaline zone (salinity 18.4-22.2 where disease resistance is evolving, (ii where oysters were abundant in the late 1800s-early 1900s, (iii of recent high recruitment, abundance and survival, despite consistent and elevated disease challenge, and (iv interconnected as a metapopulation via larval dispersal. Moreover, a network of constructed restoration reefs met size structure, abundance and biomass standards of restoration success. These findings demonstrate that assumptions about the suitability of sites for oyster restoration based on individual processes can be severely flawed, and that in-depth examination of multiple processes and sources of information are required for oyster reef restoration plans to maximize success. We use these findings and previous information to recommend a strategy for successful restoration of subtidal oyster reefs

  1. Fire and Fish: Using Radiocarbon And Stratigraphy To Discern The Impact Of Wildfire On Fish Metapopulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffrath, K. R.; Finch, C.; Belmont, P.; Budy, P.

    2015-12-01

    Wildfires have profound and variable impacts on erosion, channel morphology, and aquatic habitat. Previous research has quantified post-fire geomorphic response on event and millennial timescales. While these studies have informed our understanding of post-fire geomorphic response during the Holocene, we have yet to fully understand the variability of post-wildfire geomorphic response and how it might change in response to changing climate. Response of aquatic biota is just as variable as post-wildfire response yet we know very little about effects on metapopulations and how management decisions affect aquatic populations. Barriers to movement are installed to isolate native fish populations and prescribed fire and thinning are used to try to reduce future wildfire severity and extent. In order to improve understanding of the implications of management decisions, we evaluated geomorphic response and synchronicity of wildfires over the Holocene relative to the impact to the metapopulation of Bonneville cutthroat trout from a recent wildfire. The Twitchell Canyon fire burned 45,000 acres near Beaver, UT in July 2010. Over 30% of the area burned at high severity, which included two major headwater streams that sustained a trout population. In summer 2011, monsoonal thunderstorms caused massive debris flows and sheetflow erosion that altered channel morphology and aquatic habitat in the burned area. A previously robust, non-native trout fishery was nearly extirpated as a result of the geomorphic response to the wildfire. We used radiocarbon dating of burned material to determine how often headwater streams burned synchronously over the Holocene. Radiocarbon dates are associated with field observations of stratigraphy in order to infer geomorphic response to historic wildfires. Thirty samples were collected from sediment layers in 10 alluvial fans distributed among three watersheds (two burned and one unburned in the 2010 fire). Preliminary results suggest that we

  2. Find the weakest link. A comparison between demographic, genetic and demo-genetic metapopulation extinction times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Alexandre

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While the ultimate causes of most species extinctions are environmental, environmental constraints have various secondary consequences on evolutionary and ecological processes. The roles of demographic, genetic mechanisms and their interactions in limiting the viabilities of species or populations have stirred much debate and remain difficult to evaluate in the absence of demography-genetics conceptual and technical framework. Here, I computed projected times to metapopulation extinction using (1 a model focusing on the effects of species properties, habitat quality, quantity and temporal variability on the time to demographic extinction; (2 a genetic model focusing on the dynamics of the drift and inbreeding loads under the same species and habitat constraints; (3 a demo-genetic model accounting for demographic-genetic processes and feedbacks. Results Results indicate that a given population may have a high demographic, but low genetic viability or vice versa; and whether genetic or demographic aspects will be the most limiting to overall viability depends on the constraints faced by the species (e.g., reduction of habitat quantity or quality. As a consequence, depending on metapopulation or species characteristics, incorporating genetic considerations to demographically-based viability assessments may either moderately or severely reduce the persistence time. On the other hand, purely genetically-based estimates of species viability may either underestimate (by neglecting demo-genetic interactions or overestimate (by neglecting the demographic resilience true viability. Conclusion Unbiased assessments of the viabilities of species may only be obtained by identifying and considering the most limiting processes (i.e., demography or genetics, or, preferentially, by integrating them.

  3. A metapopulation model for the spread of MRSA in correctional facilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Beauparlant

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The spread of methicillin-resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA in health-care settings has become increasingly difficult to control and has since been able to spread in the general community. The prevalence of MRSA within the general public has caused outbreaks in groups of people in close quarters such as military barracks, gyms, daycare centres and correctional facilities. Correctional facilities are of particular importance for spreading MRSA, as inmates are often in close proximity and have limited access to hygienic products and clean clothing. Although these conditions are ideal for spreading MRSA, a recent study has suggested that recurrent epidemics are caused by the influx of colonized or infected individuals into the correctional facility. In this paper, we further investigate the effects of community dynamics on the spread of MRSA within the correctional facility and determine whether recidivism has a significant effect on disease dynamics. Using a simplified hotspot model ignoring disease dynamics within the correctional facility, as well as two metapopulation models, we demonstrate that outbreaks in correctional facilities can be driven by community dynamics even when spread between inmates is restricted. We also show that disease dynamics within the correctional facility and their effect on the outlying community may be ignored due to the smaller size of the incarcerated population. This will allow construction of simpler models that consider the effects of many MRSA hotspots interacting with the general community. It is suspected that the cumulative effects of hotspots for MRSA would have a stronger feedback effect in other community settings. Keywords: methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, hotspots, mathematical model, metapopulation model, Latin Hypercube Sampling

  4. Larval dispersal in three coral reef decapod species: Influence of larval duration on the metapopulation structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge; Allende-Arandía, Eugenia; Hermoso-Salazar, Margarita

    2018-01-01

    Most coral-associated decapod species have non-migratory adult populations and depend on their planktonic larvae for dispersal. This study examined the metapopulation structure of three decapod species with different pelagic larval duration (PLD) from twelve coral reef complexes of the Gulf of Mexico. The dispersion of larvae was analyzed through the use of a realistic numerical simulation of the Gulf of Mexico with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model. To study the transport and dispersion of particles in near-surface waters, a particle-tracking subroutine was run using as input the currents from the model. The simulation consisted of the launch of 100 passive particles (virtual larvae) every 24 hours from each reef throughout five years, and tracked for as long as 210 days. Results indicated that species with a short PLD, Mithraculus sculptus (PLD 8‒13 days), had a weak connection among the reefs, but higher self-recruitment, especially on the narrow western shelf. The species with a longer PLD, Dromia erythropus (28‒30 days), had a stronger connection among neighboring reefs (< 300 km). Finally, the species with an even longer PLD, Stenopus hispidus (123‒210 days), had a wider potential distribution than the other species. Circulation on synoptic, seasonal and interannual scales had differential effects on the larval dispersal of each species. The metapopulation structure of M. sculptus and D. erythropus seemed to combine features of the non-equilibrium and the patchy models, whereas that of S. hispidus presumably fit to a patchy model. These findings support previous observations that indicate that species with longer PLD tend to occupy larger areas than species with short PLD, although recruitment of juveniles to the adult populations will also depend on other factors, such as the availability of suitable habitats and the ability to colonize them. PMID:29558478

  5. A portrait of a sucker using landscape genetics: how colonization and life history undermine the idealized dendritic metapopulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salisbury, Sarah J; McCracken, Gregory R; Keefe, Donald; Perry, Robert; Ruzzante, Daniel E

    2016-09-01

    Dendritic metapopulations have been attributed unique properties by in silico studies, including an elevated genetic diversity relative to a panmictic population of equal total size. These predictions have not been rigorously tested in nature, nor has there been full consideration of the interacting effects among contemporary landscape features, colonization history and life history traits of the target species. We tested for the effects of dendritic structure as well as the relative importance of life history, environmental barriers and historical colonization on the neutral genetic structure of a longnose sucker (Catostomus catostomus) metapopulation in the Kogaluk watershed of northern Labrador, Canada. Samples were collected from eight lakes, genotyped with 17 microsatellites, and aged using opercula. Lakes varied in differentiation, historical and contemporary connectivity, and life history traits. Isolation by distance was detected only by removing two highly genetically differentiated lakes, suggesting a lack of migration-drift equilibrium and the lingering influence of historical factors on genetic structure. Bayesian analyses supported colonization via the Kogaluk's headwaters. The historical concentration of genetic diversity in headwaters inferred by this result was supported by high historical and contemporary effective sizes of the headwater lake, T-Bone. Alternatively, reduced allelic richness in headwaters confirmed the dendritic structure's influence on gene flow, but this did not translate to an elevated metapopulation effective size. A lack of equilibrium and upstream migration may have dampened the effects of dendritic structure. We suggest that interacting historical and contemporary factors prevent the achievement of the idealized traits of a dendritic metapopulation in nature. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Zoos through the Lens of the IUCN Red List: A Global Metapopulation Approach to Support Conservation Breeding Programs

    OpenAIRE

    Conde, Dalia A.; Colchero, Fernando; Gusset, Markus; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Byers, Onnie; Flesness, Nate; Browne, Robert K.; Jones, Owen R.

    2013-01-01

    Given current extinction trends, the number of species requiring conservation breeding programs (CBPs) is likely to increase dramatically. To inform CBP policies for threatened terrestrial vertebrates, we evaluated the number and representation of threatened vertebrate species on the IUCN Red List held in the ISIS zoo network and estimated the complexity of their management as metapopulations. Our results show that 695 of the 3,955 (23%) terrestrial vertebrate species in ISIS zoos are threate...

  7. An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

    2018-04-01

    A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

  8. Developing metapopulation connectivity criteria from genetic and habitat data to recover the endangered Mexican wolf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Fredrickson, Richard J; Lacy, Robert C

    2014-02-01

    Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species-specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum-viable-population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  9. Stochastic resonance for a metapopulation system driven by multiplicative and additive colored noises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Kang-Kang; Liu Xian-Bin

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic resonance (SR) phenomenon induced by the periodic signal in a metapopulation system with colored noises. The analytical expression of signal-to-noise is derived in the adiabatic limit. By numerical calculation, the effects of the addictive noise intensity, the multiplicative noise intensity and two noise self-correlation times on SNR are respectively discussed. It shows that: (i) in the case that the addictive noise intensity M takes a small value, a SR phenomenon for the curve of SNR appears; however, when M takes a large value, SNR turns into a monotonic function on the multiplicative noise intensity Q. (ii) The resonance peaks in the plots of the multiplicative noise intensity Q versus its self-correlation time τ 1 and the addictive noise intensity M versus its self-correlation time τ 2 translate in parallel. Meanwhile, a parallel translation also appears in the plots of τ 1 versus Q and τ 2 versus M. (iii) The interactive effects between self-correlation times τ 1 and τ 2 are opposite. (general)

  10. Host-pathogen metapopulation dynamics suggest high elevation refugia for boreal toads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, Brittany A.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Muths, Erin L.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P

    2018-01-01

    Emerging infectious diseases are an increasingly common threat to wildlife. Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is an emerging infectious disease that has been linked to amphibian declines around the world. Few studies exist that explore amphibian-Bd dynamics at the landscape scale, limiting our ability to identify which factors are associated with variation in population susceptibility and to develop effective in situdisease management. Declines of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) in the Southern Rocky Mountains are largely attributed to chytridiomycosis but variation exists in local extinction of boreal toads across this metapopulation. Using a large-scale historic dataset, we explored several potential factors influencing disease dynamics in the boreal toad-Bd system: geographic isolation of populations, amphibian community richness, elevational differences, and habitat permanence. We found evidence that boreal toad extinction risk was lowest at high elevations where temperatures may be sub-optimal for Bd growth and where small boreal toad populations may be below the threshold needed for efficient pathogen transmission. In addition, boreal toads were more likely to recolonize high elevation sites after local extinction, again suggesting that high elevations may provide refuge from disease for boreal toads. We illustrate a modeling framework that will be useful to natural resource managers striving to make decisions in amphibian-Bdsystems. Our data suggest that in the southern Rocky Mountains high elevation sites should be prioritized for conservation initiatives like reintroductions.

  11. Understanding and making practice explicit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gráinne Conole

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available This issue contains four, on the face of it, quite different papers, but on looking a little closer there are a number of interesting themes running through them that illustrate some of the key methodological and theoretical issues that e-learning researchers are currently struggling with; central to these is the issue of how do we understand and make practice explicit?

  12. Building an explicit de Sitter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Louis, Jan; Hamburg Univ.; Rummel, Markus; Valandro, Roberto; Westphal, Alexander

    2012-11-01

    We construct an explicit example of a de Sitter vacuum in type IIB string theory that realizes the proposal of Kaehler uplifting. As the large volume limit in this method depends on the rank of the largest condensing gauge group we carry out a scan of gauge group ranks over the Kreuzer-Skarke set of toric Calabi-Yau threefolds. We find large numbers of models with the largest gauge group factor easily exceeding a rank of one hundred. We construct a global model with Kaehler uplifting on a two-parameter model on CP 4 11169 , by an explicit analysis from both the type IIB and F-theory point of view. The explicitness of the construction lies in the realization of a D7 brane configuration, gauge flux and RR and NS flux choices, such that all known consistency conditions are met and the geometric moduli are stabilized in a metastable de Sitter vacuum with spontaneous GUT scale supersymmetry breaking driven by an F-term of the Kaehler moduli.

  13. Building an explicit de Sitter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Louis, Jan [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). 2. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Zentrum fuer Mathematische Physik; Rummel, Markus; Valandro, Roberto [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). 2. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Westphal, Alexander [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany). Gruppe Theorie

    2012-11-15

    We construct an explicit example of a de Sitter vacuum in type IIB string theory that realizes the proposal of Kaehler uplifting. As the large volume limit in this method depends on the rank of the largest condensing gauge group we carry out a scan of gauge group ranks over the Kreuzer-Skarke set of toric Calabi-Yau threefolds. We find large numbers of models with the largest gauge group factor easily exceeding a rank of one hundred. We construct a global model with Kaehler uplifting on a two-parameter model on CP{sup 4}{sub 11169}, by an explicit analysis from both the type IIB and F-theory point of view. The explicitness of the construction lies in the realization of a D7 brane configuration, gauge flux and RR and NS flux choices, such that all known consistency conditions are met and the geometric moduli are stabilized in a metastable de Sitter vacuum with spontaneous GUT scale supersymmetry breaking driven by an F-term of the Kaehler moduli.

  14. Spatially explicit trends in the global conservation status of vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Ana S L; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Chanson, Janice; Cox, Neil; Hoffmann, Michael; Stuart, Simon N

    2014-01-01

    The world's governments have committed to preventing the extinction of threatened species and improving their conservation status by 2020. However, biodiversity is not evenly distributed across space, and neither are the drivers of its decline, and so different regions face very different challenges. Here, we quantify the contribution of regions and countries towards recent global trends in vertebrate conservation status (as measured by the Red List Index), to guide action towards the 2020 target. We found that>50% of the global deterioration in the conservation status of birds, mammals and amphibians is concentrated in nations (e.g. Cook Islands, Fiji, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Tonga), have achieved net improvements. Per capita wealth does not explain these patterns, with two of the richest countries - United States and Australia - fairing conspicuously poorly. Different countries were affected by different combinations of threats. Reducing global rates of biodiversity loss will require investment in the regions and countries with the highest responsibility for the world's biodiversity, focusing on conserving those species and areas most in peril and on reducing the drivers with the highest impacts.

  15. Spatially explicit basal area growth of Norway spruce

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejza, Jan; Světlík, J.; Pokorný, Radek

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 29, č. 5 (2015), s. 1545-1558 ISSN 0931-1890 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR TA02010945 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : competition * social area * Weighted Voronoi polygons * increment * Picea abies Subject RIV: GK - Forestry Impact factor: 1.706, year: 2015

  16. Modular and Spatially Explicit: A Novel Approach to System Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Open Modeling Environment (OME) is an open-source System Dynamics (SD) simulation engine which has been created as a joint project between Oregon State University and the US Environmental Protection Agency. It is designed around a modular implementation, and provides a standa...

  17. Spatially explicit modelling of extreme weather and climate events ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation ...

  18. Spatially explicit prioritization of human antibiotics and antineoplastics in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldenkamp, Rik; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Hollander, Anne; Versporten, Ann; Goossens, Herman; Ragas, Ad M J

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a screening tool for the location-specific prioritization of human pharmaceutical emissions in Europe, based on risk quotients for the aquatic environment and human health. The tool provides direction towards either monitoring activities or additional research. Its application is illustrated for a set of 11 human antibiotics and 7 antineoplastics. Risk quotients for the aquatic environment were highest for levofloxacin, doxycycline and ciprofloxacin, located in Northern Italy (Milan region; particularly levofloxacin) and other densely populated areas in Europe (e.g. London, Krakow and the Ruhr area). Risk quotients for human health not only depend on pharmaceutical and location, but also on behavioral characteristics, such as consumption patterns. Infants in eastern Spain that consume locally produced food and conventionally treated drinking water were predicted to run the highest risks. A limited comparison with measured concentrations in surface water showed that predicted and measured concentrations are approximately within one order of magnitude. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Spatially explicit simulation of peatland hydrology and carbon dioxide exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonnentag, O.

    2008-01-01

    A recent version of the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) was extended and modified to include northern peatlands. This thesis evaluated the BEPS-TerrainLab using observations made at the Mer Bleue bog located near Ottawa, Ontario, and the Sandhill fen located near Prince Albert, Saskatchewan. The code was revised to represent the multi-layer canopy and processes related to energy, water vapour and carbon dioxide fluxes through remotely-sensed leaf area index (LAI) maps. A quick and reliable method was also developed to determine shrub LAI with the LAI-2000 plant canopy analyzer. A large number of LAI data was collected at the Mer Bleue bog for the development of a new remote sensing-based methodology using multiple end member spectral unmixing to allow for separate tree and shrub LAI mapping in ombrotrophic peatlands. The methodology was also adapted for use in minerotrophic peatlands and their surrounding landscapes. These LAI maps within the BEPS-TerrainLab represented the tree and shrub layers of the Mer Bleue bog and the tree and shrub/sedge layers of the Sandhill fen. The study examined the influence of mesoscale topography (Mer Bleue bog) and macro- and mesoscale topography (Sandhill fen) on wetness, evapotranspiration, and gross primary productivity during the snow-free period of 2004. The results suggested that a peatland type-specific differentiation of macro- and mesoscale topographic effects on hydrology should be included in future peatland ecosystem modelling efforts in order to allow for a more realistic simulation of the soil water balance in peatlands and to reduce uncertainties in carbon dioxide and methane annual fluxes from wetlands

  20. Spatially explicit simulation of peatland hydrology and carbon dioxide exchange

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sonnentag, O.

    2008-08-01

    A recent version of the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) was extended and modified to include northern peatlands. This thesis evaluated the BEPS-TerrainLab using observations made at the Mer Bleue bog located near Ottawa, Ontario, and the Sandhill fen located near Prince Albert, Saskatchewan. The code was revised to represent the multi-layer canopy and processes related to energy, water vapour and carbon dioxide fluxes through remotely-sensed leaf area index (LAI) maps. A quick and reliable method was also developed to determine shrub LAI with the LAI-2000 plant canopy analyzer. A large number of LAI data was collected at the Mer Bleue bog for the development of a new remote sensing-based methodology using multiple end member spectral unmixing to allow for separate tree and shrub LAI mapping in ombrotrophic peatlands. The methodology was also adapted for use in minerotrophic peatlands and their surrounding landscapes. These LAI maps within the BEPS-TerrainLab represented the tree and shrub layers of the Mer Bleue bog and the tree and shrub/sedge layers of the Sandhill fen. The study examined the influence of mesoscale topography (Mer Bleue bog) and macro- and mesoscale topography (Sandhill fen) on wetness, evapotranspiration, and gross primary productivity during the snow-free period of 2004. The results suggested that a peatland type-specific differentiation of macro- and mesoscale topographic effects on hydrology should be included in future peatland ecosystem modelling efforts in order to allow for a more realistic simulation of the soil water balance in peatlands and to reduce uncertainties in carbon dioxide and methane annual fluxes from wetlands.

  1. Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 1: Historical trend and validation based on nation-wide soil monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

    2014-08-01

    In order to estimate a country-scale soil organic carbon (SOC) stock change in agricultural lands in Japan, while taking into account the effect of land-use changes, climate, different agricultural activities and the nature of soils, a spatially explicit model simulation system was developed using Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) with an integration of spatial and temporal inventories. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2008 with historical inventories. Simulated SOC stock was compared with observations in a nation-wide stationary monitoring program conducted during 1979-1998. Historical land-use change, characterized by a large decline in the area of paddy fields as well as a small but continuous decline in the area of orchards, occurred along with a relatively large increase in upland crop fields, unmanaged grasslands, and settlements (i.e. conversion of agricultural fields due to urbanization or abandoning). Results of the simulation on SOC stock change under varying land-use change indicated that land-use conversion from agricultural fields to settlements or other lands, as well as that from paddy fields to croplands have likely been an increasing source of CO2 emission, due to the reduction of organic carbon input to soils and the enhancement of SOC decomposition through transition of soil environment from anaerobic to aerobic conditions. The area-weighted mean concentrations of the simulated SOC stocks calculated for major soil groups under paddy fields and upland crop fields were comparable to those observed in the monitoring. Whereas in orchards, the simulated SOC stocks were underestimated. As the results of simulation indicated that SOC stock change under managed grasslands and settlements has been likely a major sink and source of CO2 emission at country-scale, respectively, validation of SOC stock change under these land-use types, which could not have been accomplished due to limited availability or a lack of measurement, remains a forthcoming challenge.

  2. Anthropogenic impacts on an oyster metapopulation: Pathogen introduction, climate change and responses to natural selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Bushek

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Humans rely on marine ecosystems for a variety of services but often impact these ecosystems directly or indirectly limiting their capacity to provide such services. One growing impact is the emergence of marine disease. We present results from a unique case study examining how oysters, a dominant organism in many coastal bays and estuaries that is often harvested for food, have responded to pathogens influenced by human activities, namely the introduction of novel pathogens. Climate change has enabled a northward spread and establishment of Dermo disease in oysters along the eastern seaboard of North America and human activities inadvertently introduced MSX disease along this same coast. Oysters in Delaware Bay have responded differently to each pathogen, and uniquely to MSX disease by developing a highly resistant baywide population not documented in any other bay. Offspring were produced using parents collected from low or high disease (MSX and Dermo regions of Delaware Bay and exposed in a common garden experiment along with a naïve population from Maine. Results indicated widespread resistance to MSX disease, but not to Dermo disease, across Delaware Bay. One striking result was the demonstration of resilience in the population through its capacity to spread, presumably through larval transport, resistance to MSX disease into portions of the population that have experienced little to no MSX disease pressure themselves. Related studies indicated that larval transport mechanisms allowed widespread dispersal such that the entire metapopulation could acquire a high level of resistance over time if disease resistance is sufficiently heritable. The findings have implications for restoration, management and recovery of diseased populations. Namely, that if left to their own devices, natural selection may find a solution that enables populations to recover from introduced pathogens.

  3. EdgeMaps: visualizing explicit and implicit relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dörk, Marian; Carpendale, Sheelagh; Williamson, Carey

    2011-01-01

    In this work, we introduce EdgeMaps as a new method for integrating the visualization of explicit and implicit data relations. Explicit relations are specific connections between entities already present in a given dataset, while implicit relations are derived from multidimensional data based on shared properties and similarity measures. Many datasets include both types of relations, which are often difficult to represent together in information visualizations. Node-link diagrams typically focus on explicit data connections, while not incorporating implicit similarities between entities. Multi-dimensional scaling considers similarities between items, however, explicit links between nodes are not displayed. In contrast, EdgeMaps visualize both implicit and explicit relations by combining and complementing spatialization and graph drawing techniques. As a case study for this approach we chose a dataset of philosophers, their interests, influences, and birthdates. By introducing the limitation of activating only one node at a time, interesting visual patterns emerge that resemble the aesthetics of fireworks and waves. We argue that the interactive exploration of these patterns may allow the viewer to grasp the structure of a graph better than complex node-link visualizations.

  4. Tacit to explicit knowledge conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cairó Battistutti, Osvaldo; Bork, Dominik

    2017-11-01

    The ability to create, use and transfer knowledge may allow the creation or improvement of new products or services. But knowledge is often tacit: It lives in the minds of individuals, and therefore, it is difficult to transfer it to another person by means of the written word or verbal expression. This paper addresses this important problem by introducing a methodology, consisting of a four-step process that facilitates tacit to explicit knowledge conversion. The methodology utilizes conceptual modeling, thus enabling understanding and reasoning through visual knowledge representation. This implies the possibility of understanding concepts and ideas, visualized through conceptual models, without using linguistic or algebraic means. The proposed methodology is conducted in a metamodel-based tool environment whose aim is efficient application and ease of use.

  5. Patterns of spread and persistence of foot-and-mouth disease types A, O and Asia-1 in Turkey: a meta-population approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, M; Aktas, S; Mohammed, H; Roeder, P; Sumption, K; Tufan, M; Slingenbergh, J

    2005-06-01

    Despite significant control efforts, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) persists in Turkey, and new strains of serotypes A, O and Asia-1 are periodically reported to enter the country from the east. The status of FMD in Turkey is important regionally because the country forms a natural bridge between Asia where the disease is endemic, and Europe which has disease-free status. This study analysed spatial and temporal patterns of FMD occurrence in Turkey to explore factors associated with the disease's persistence and spread. Annual records of FMD distribution in Turkish provinces throughout 1990-2002, grouped by serotype (O, A and Asia 1), were analysed using geostatistical techniques to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. A meta-population model was used to test how disease status, expressed in terms of presence/absence, extinction, and colonization, and measured at the province level throughout the periods 1990-1996 and 1997 2002, could be predicted using province-level data on: ruminant livestock numbers; meat production-demand discrepancy (as a surrogate measure of animal and animal products marketing, i.e. long-distance contagion through the traffic of mainly live animals to urban centres); and the disease prevalence distribution as recorded for the previous year. A drastic overall reduction in FMD occurrence was observed from the period 1990-1996 to 1997-2002 when the disease was shown to retract into persistence islands. FMD occurrence was associated with host abundance, short distance contagion from adjacent provinces, and meat production-demand discrepancies. With FMD retracting into identified provinces, a shift in predictors of FMD occurrence was observed with a lower contribution of short-distance contagion, and a relatively higher association with meat production-demand discrepancies leading to live animal transport over long distances, and hence presenting opportunities for identifying critical-control points. The pattern of persistence differed

  6. Analysis of Spatial Concepts, Spatial Skills and Spatial Representations in New York State Regents Earth Science Examinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kastens, Kim A.; Pistolesi, Linda; Passow, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    Research has shown that spatial thinking is important in science in general, and in Earth Science in particular, and that performance on spatially demanding tasks can be fostered through instruction. Because spatial thinking is rarely taught explicitly in the U.S. education system, improving spatial thinking may be "low-hanging fruit" as…

  7. Climate change winners: receding ice fields facilitate colony expansion and altered dynamics in an Adélie penguin metapopulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaRue, Michelle A; Ainley, David G; Swanson, Matt; Dugger, Katie M; Lyver, Phil O'B; Barton, Kerry; Ballard, Grant

    2013-01-01

    There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ~0.50 °C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.

  8. Climate change winners: receding ice fields facilitate colony expansion and altered dynamics in an Adélie penguin metapopulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle A LaRue

    Full Text Available There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort, part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ~0.50 °C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.

  9. Implicit and Explicit Instruction of Spelling Rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemper, M. J.; Verhoeven, L.; Bosman, A. M. T.

    2012-01-01

    The study aimed to compare the differential effectiveness of explicit and implicit instruction of two Dutch spelling rules. Students with and without spelling disabilities were instructed a spelling rule either implicitly or explicitly in two experiments. Effects were tested in a pretest-intervention-posttest control group design. Experiment 1…

  10. Explicit learning in Act-R

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taatgen, N.A.; Schmid, U; Krems, J; Wysotzky, F

    1999-01-01

    A popular distinction in the learning literature is the distinction between implicit and explicit learning. Although many studies elaborate on the nature of implicit learning, little attention is left for explicit learning. The unintentional aspect of implicit learning corresponds well to the

  11. Statistical methods in spatial genetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guillot, Gilles; Leblois, Raphael; Coulon, Aurelie

    2009-01-01

    The joint analysis of spatial and genetic data is rapidly becoming the norm in population genetics. More and more studies explicitly describe and quantify the spatial organization of genetic variation and try to relate it to underlying ecological processes. As it has become increasingly difficult...... to keep abreast with the latest methodological developments, we review the statistical toolbox available to analyse population genetic data in a spatially explicit framework. We mostly focus on statistical concepts but also discuss practical aspects of the analytical methods, highlighting not only...

  12. Explicit formulas for Clebsch-Gordan coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rudnicki-Bujnowski, G.

    1975-01-01

    The problem is to obtain explicit algebraic formulas of Clebsch-Gordan coefficients for high values of angular momentum. The method of solution is an algebraic method based on the Racah formula using the FORMAC programming language. (Auth.)

  13. How noise and coupling influence leading indicators of population extinction in a spatially extended ecological system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Regan, Suzanne M

    2018-12-01

    Anticipating critical transitions in spatially extended systems is a key topic of interest to ecologists. Gradually declining metapopulations are an important example of a spatially extended biological system that may exhibit a critical transition. Theory for spatially extended systems approaching extinction that accounts for environmental stochasticity and coupling is currently lacking. Here, we develop spatially implicit two-patch models with additive and multiplicative forms of environmental stochasticity that are slowly forced through population collapse, through changing environmental conditions. We derive patch-specific expressions for candidate indicators of extinction and test their performance via a simulation study. Coupling and spatial heterogeneities decrease the magnitude of the proposed indicators in coupled populations relative to isolated populations, and the noise regime and the degree of coupling together determine trends in summary statistics. This theory may be readily applied to other spatially extended ecological systems, such as coupled infectious disease systems on the verge of elimination.

  14. Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanski, Ilkka A

    2011-08-30

    Demographic population dynamics, gene flow, and local adaptation may influence each other and lead to coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, especially in species inhabiting fragmented heterogeneous environments. Here, I review long-term research on eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly inhabiting a large network of approximately 4,000 meadows in Finland. The metapopulation persists in a balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations. The genetic spatial structure as defined by neutral markers is much more coarse-grained than the demographic spatial structure determined by the fragmented habitat, yet small-scale spatial structure has important consequences for the dynamics. I discuss three examples of eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics. (i) Extinction-colonization metapopulation dynamics influence allele frequency changes in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, which leads to strong associations between genetic variation in Pgi and dispersal, recolonization, and local population dynamics. (ii) Inbreeding in local populations increases their risk for extinction, whereas reciprocal effects between inbreeding, population size, and emigration represent likely eco-evolutionary feedbacks. (iii) Genetically determined female oviposition preference for two host plant species exhibits a cline paralleling a gradient in host plant relative abundances, and host plant preference of dispersing females in relation to the host plant composition of habitat patches influences immigration (gene flow) and recolonization (founder events). Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in heterogeneous environments may not lead to directional evolutionary changes unless the environment itself changes, but eco-evolutionary dynamics may contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation attributable to fluctuating selection in space and time.

  15. Preserved memory-based orienting of attention with impaired explicit memory in healthy ageing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvato, Gerardo; Patai, Eva Z; Nobre, Anna C

    2016-01-01

    It is increasingly recognised that spatial contextual long-term memory (LTM) prepares neural activity for guiding visuo-spatial attention in a proactive manner. In the current study, we investigated whether the decline in explicit memory observed in healthy ageing would compromise this mechanism. We compared the behavioural performance of younger and older participants on learning new contextual memories, on orienting visual attention based on these learnt contextual associations, and on explicit recall of contextual memories. We found a striking dissociation between older versus younger participants in the relationship between the ability to retrieve contextual memories versus the ability to use these to guide attention to enhance performance on a target-detection task. Older participants showed significant deficits in the explicit retrieval task, but their behavioural benefits from memory-based orienting of attention were equivalent to those in young participants. Furthermore, memory-based orienting correlated significantly with explicit contextual LTM in younger adults but not in older adults. These results suggest that explicit memory deficits in ageing might not compromise initial perception and encoding of events. Importantly, the results also shed light on the mechanisms of memory-guided attention, suggesting that explicit contextual memories are not necessary. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. Water-level fluctuations and metapopulation dynamics as drivers of genetic diversity in populations of three Tanganyikan cichlid fish species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevado, B; Mautner, S; Sturmbauer, C; Verheyen, E

    2013-08-01

    Understanding how genetic variation is generated and maintained in natural populations, and how this process unfolds in a changing environment, remains a central issue in biological research. In this work, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity from several populations of three cichlid species from Lake Tanganyika in parallel, using the mitochondrial DNA control region. We sampled populations inhabiting the littoral rocky habitats in both very deep and very shallow areas of the lake. We hypothesized that the former would constitute relatively older, more stable and genetically more diverse populations, because they should have been less severely affected by the well-documented episodes of dramatic water-level fluctuations. In agreement with our predictions, populations of all three species sampled in very shallow shorelines showed traces of stronger population growth than populations of the same species inhabiting deep shorelines. However, contrary to our working hypothesis, we found a significant trend towards increased genetic diversity in the younger, demographically less stable populations inhabiting shallow areas, in comparison with the older and more stable populations inhabiting the deep shorelines. We interpret this finding as the result of the establishment of metapopulation dynamics in the former shorelines, by the frequent perturbation and reshuffling of individuals between populations due to the lake-level fluctuations. The repeated succession of periods of allopatric separation and secondary contact is likely to have further increased the rapid pace of speciation in lacustrine cichlids. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. The implications of habitat management on the population viability of the endangered Ohlone tiger beetle (Cicindela ohlone metapopulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara M Cornelisse

    Full Text Available Despite their role in providing ecosystem services, insects remain overlooked in conservation planning, and insect management approaches often lack a rigorous scientific basis. The endangered Ohlone tiger beetle (Cicindela ohlone occurs in a 24-km(2 area in Santa Cruz County, California. The once larger metapopulation now consists of subpopulations inhabiting five patches of coastal prairie where it depends on bare ground for mating, foraging, and oviposition. Human activities have eliminated natural disturbances and spread invasive grasses, reducing C. ohlone's bare-ground habitat. Management actions to restore critical beetle habitat consist of cattle and horse grazing, maintaining slow bicycle speeds on occupied public trails, and artificial creation of bare-ground plots. Recreational biking trails help maintain bare ground, but can cause beetle mortality if left unregulated. We tracked C. ohlone survivorship and estimated fecundity for three years. We then constructed a stage-structured population projection matrix model to estimate population viability among the five patches, and to evaluate the success of management interventions. We demonstrate that habitat creation, regulation of bicycle speed, and migration between patches increase C. ohlone survival and population viability. Our results can be directly applied to management actions for conservation outcomes that will reduce species extinction risk and promote recolonization of extirpated patches.

  18. Stochastic resonance and stability for a stochastic metapopulation system subjected to non-Gaussian noise and multiplicative periodic signal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang-Kang, Wang; Xian-Bin, Liu; Yu, Zhou

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the stability and stochastic resonance (SR) phenomenon induced by the multiplicative periodic signal for a metapopulation system driven by the additive Gaussian noise, multiplicative non-Gaussian noise and noise correlation time is investigated. By using the fast descent method, unified colored noise approximation and McNamara and Wiesenfeld’s SR theory, the analytical expressions of the stationary probability distribution function and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are derived in the adiabatic limit. Via numerical calculations, each effect of the addictive noise intensity, the multiplicative noise intensity and the correlation time upon the steady state probability distribution function and the SNR is discussed, respectively. It is shown that multiplicative, additive noises and the departure parameter from the Gaussian noise can all destroy the stability of the population system. However, the noise correlation time can consolidate the stability of the system. On the other hand, the correlation time always plays an important role in motivating the SR and enhancing the SNR. Under different parameter conditions of the system, the multiplicative, additive noises and the departure parameter can not only excite SR phenomenon, but also restrain the SR phenomenon, which demonstrates the complexity of different noises upon the nonlinear system. (paper)

  19. Preserved memory-based orienting of attention with impaired explicit memory in healthy ageing.

    OpenAIRE

    Salvato, G; Patai, EZ; Nobre, AC

    2015-01-01

    It is increasingly recognised that spatial contextual long-term memory (LTM) prepares neural activity for guiding visuo-spatial attention in a proactive manner. In the current study, we investigated whether the decline in explicit memory observed in healthy ageing would compromise this mechanism. We compared the behavioural performance of younger and older participants on learning new contextual memories, on orienting visual attention based on these learnt contextual associations, and on expl...

  20. Explicit memory creation during sleep demonstrates a causal role of place cells in navigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lavilléon, Gaetan; Lacroix, Marie Masako; Rondi-Reig, Laure; Benchenane, Karim

    2015-04-01

    Hippocampal place cells assemblies are believed to support the cognitive map, and their reactivations during sleep are thought to be involved in spatial memory consolidation. By triggering intracranial rewarding stimulations by place cell spikes during sleep, we induced an explicit memory trace, leading to a goal-directed behavior toward the place field. This demonstrates that place cells' activity during sleep still conveys relevant spatial information and that this activity is functionally significant for navigation.

  1. Implicit and explicit processes in social cognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frith, Christopher; Frith, Uta

    2008-01-01

    In this review we consider research on social cognition in which implicit processes can be compared and contrasted with explicit, conscious processes. In each case, their function is distinct, sometimes complementary and sometimes oppositional. We argue that implicit processes in social interaction...... are automatic and are often opposed to conscious strategies. While we are aware of explicit processes in social interaction, we cannot always use them to override implicit processes. Many studies show that implicit processes facilitate the sharing of knowledge, feelings, and actions, and hence, perhaps...

  2. Explicitly computing geodetic coordinates from Cartesian coordinates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Huaien

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a new form of quartic equation based on Lagrange's extremum law and a Groebner basis under the constraint that the geodetic height is the shortest distance between a given point and the reference ellipsoid. A very explicit and concise formulae of the quartic equation by Ferrari's line is found, which avoids the need of a good starting guess for iterative methods. A new explicit algorithm is then proposed to compute geodetic coordinates from Cartesian coordinates. The convergence region of the algorithm is investigated and the corresponding correct solution is given. Lastly, the algorithm is validated with numerical experiments.

  3. Developing spatial biophysical accounting for multiple ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remme, R.P.; Schroter, M.; Hein, L.G.

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting is receiving increasing interest as a way to systematically monitor the conditions of ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide. A critical element of ecosystem accounting is understanding spatially explicit flows of ecosystem services. We developed spatial biophysical

  4. The Tacit-Explicit Dimension of the Learning of Mathematics: An Investigation Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frade, Cristina; Borges, Oto

    2006-01-01

    This paper reports on study that investigated the tacit-explicit dimension of the learning of mathematics. The study was carried out in a secondary school and consisted of an episode analysis related to a class discussion about the difference between plane figures and spatial figures. The data analysis was based on integration between some aspects…

  5. Antichrist, Explicit Sex, Anxiety, and Care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grodal, Torben Kragh

    2015-01-01

    The article analyzes how von Trier's Antichrist uses explicit sex to discuss the relation between fear of human embodiment and a longing for care and spiritual intimacy. It discusses how lyrical episodes contrasts descriptions of embodied degradation and experiences of being imprisoned in the body....

  6. EXPLICIT PLANNING FOR PARAGRAPH WRITING CLASS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lestari Setyowati

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study is to improve the students writing ability for paragraph writing class. The subjects of the study were 37 students of English Education Study Program who joined the paragraph writing class. The design of the study was Classroom Action Research with two cycles. Cycle 1 consisted of three meetings, and cycle 2 consisted of two meetings. The types of explicit planning used in the action research were word listing and word mapping with phrases and sentence for detail.  The instruments used were direct writing test, observation, and  documentation of students’ reflective essay. To score the students’ writing, two raters  were asked to rate the composition by using Jacobs ESL Composition profile scoring rubric. The finding shows that the use of explicit planning was able to improve the students’ paragraph writing performance, indicated with the achievement of the criteria of success. The students’ mean improved from cycle 1 (74.62  to cycle2 (76.78. Although explicit planning instruction was able to help the students to write better, data from their self-reflection essay showed that many of the students preferred to use free writing instead of explicit planning instruction.

  7. Orchestrating Semiotic Resources in Explicit Strategy Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, Lynn E.; Flury-Kashmanian, Caroline

    2014-01-01

    Research and pedagogical information provided to teachers on implementing explicit strategy instruction has primarily focused on teachers' speech, with limited attention to other modes of communication, such as gesture and artefacts. This interpretive case study investigates two teachers' use of different semiotic resources when introducing…

  8. Explicit Instruction Elements in Core Reading Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Child, Angela R.

    2012-01-01

    Classroom teachers are provided instructional recommendations for teaching reading from their adopted core reading programs (CRPs). Explicit instruction elements or what is also called instructional moves, including direct explanation, modeling, guided practice, independent practice, discussion, feedback, and monitoring, were examined within CRP…

  9. Sleep Enhances Explicit Recollection in Recognition Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drosopoulos, Spyridon; Wagner, Ullrich; Born, Jan

    2005-01-01

    Recognition memory is considered to be supported by two different memory processes, i.e., the explicit recollection of information about a previous event and an implicit process of recognition based on a contextual sense of familiarity. Both types of memory supposedly rely on distinct memory systems. Sleep is known to enhance the consolidation of…

  10. Implicit and explicit prejudice and interracial interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dovidio, J.F.; Kawakami, K.L.; Gaertner, S.L.

    2002-01-01

    The present research examined how implicit racial associations and explicit racial attitudes of Whites relate to behaviors and impressions in interracial interactions, Specifically, the authors examined how response latency and self-report measures predicted bias and perceptions of bias in verbal

  11. Explicit Covariance Matrix for Particle Measurement Precision

    CERN Document Server

    Karimäki, Veikko

    1997-01-01

    We derive explicit and precise formulae for 3 by 3 error matrix of the particle transverse momentum, direction and impact parameter. The error matrix elements are expressed as functions of up to fourth order statistical moments of the measured coordinates. The formulae are valid for any curvature and track length in case of negligible multiple scattering.

  12. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  13. Efficacy of an explicit handwriting program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Marie-Laure; Albaret, Jean-Michel; Doudin, Pierre-André

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of an explicit handwriting program introduced during the first grade of elementary school. Grade 1 children (N=23) with an age range of 6.1 to 7.4 yr. (15 girls, 8 boys) were administered an additional handwriting program of two weekly sessions of 45 min. over six weeks. Another group of 19 Grade 1 children (11 girls, 8 boys) received only the regular handwriting program of one weekly session. The Concise Assessment Scale for Children's Handwriting was administered to measure the changes in quality and speed of handwriting. The children given the explicit program showed better quality and speed of handwriting than did the control group. Their handwriting was more regular, with fewer ambiguous letters and fewer incorrect relative heights.

  14. Extrapolated stabilized explicit Runge-Kutta methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Vaquero, J.; Kleefeld, B.

    2016-12-01

    Extrapolated Stabilized Explicit Runge-Kutta methods (ESERK) are proposed to solve multi-dimensional nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). In such methods it is necessary to evaluate the function nt times per step, but the stability region is O (nt2). Hence, the computational cost is O (nt) times lower than for a traditional explicit algorithm. In that way stiff problems can be integrated by the use of simple explicit evaluations in which case implicit methods usually had to be used. Therefore, they are especially well-suited for the method of lines (MOL) discretizations of parabolic nonlinear multi-dimensional PDEs. In this work, first s-stages first-order methods with extended stability along the negative real axis are obtained. They have slightly shorter stability regions than other traditional first-order stabilized explicit Runge-Kutta algorithms (also called Runge-Kutta-Chebyshev codes). Later, they are used to derive nt-stages second- and fourth-order schemes using Richardson extrapolation. The stability regions of these fourth-order codes include the interval [ - 0.01nt2, 0 ] (nt being the number of total functions evaluations), which are shorter than stability regions of ROCK4 methods, for example. However, the new algorithms neither suffer from propagation of errors (as other Runge-Kutta-Chebyshev codes as ROCK4 or DUMKA) nor internal instabilities. Additionally, many other types of higher-order (and also lower-order) methods can be obtained easily in a similar way. These methods also allow adaptation of the length step with no extra cost. Hence, the stability domain is adapted precisely to the spectrum of the problem at the current time of integration in an optimal way, i.e., with minimal number of additional stages. We compare the new techniques with other well-known algorithms with good results in very stiff diffusion or reaction-diffusion multi-dimensional nonlinear equations.

  15. Implicit and explicit attitudes among students

    OpenAIRE

    Félix Neto

    2009-01-01

    Mental processing and mental experience is not the same thing. The former is the operation of the mind; the latter is the subjective life that emerges from these operations. In social evaluation, implicit and explicit attitudes express this distinction. https://implicit.harvard.edu/ was created to provide experience with the Implicit Association Test (IAT) a procedure designed to measure social knowledge that may operate outside of awareness. In this paper we examined the relationships betwee...

  16. Accurate, stable and efficient Navier-Stokes solvers based on explicit treatment of the pressure term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnston, Hans; Liu Jianguo

    2004-01-01

    We present numerical schemes for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations based on a primitive variable formulation in which the incompressibility constraint has been replaced by a pressure Poisson equation. The pressure is treated explicitly in time, completely decoupling the computation of the momentum and kinematic equations. The result is a class of extremely efficient Navier-Stokes solvers. Full time accuracy is achieved for all flow variables. The key to the schemes is a Neumann boundary condition for the pressure Poisson equation which enforces the incompressibility condition for the velocity field. Irrespective of explicit or implicit time discretization of the viscous term in the momentum equation the explicit time discretization of the pressure term does not affect the time step constraint. Indeed, we prove unconditional stability of the new formulation for the Stokes equation with explicit treatment of the pressure term and first or second order implicit treatment of the viscous term. Systematic numerical experiments for the full Navier-Stokes equations indicate that a second order implicit time discretization of the viscous term, with the pressure and convective terms treated explicitly, is stable under the standard CFL condition. Additionally, various numerical examples are presented, including both implicit and explicit time discretizations, using spectral and finite difference spatial discretizations, demonstrating the accuracy, flexibility and efficiency of this class of schemes. In particular, a Galerkin formulation is presented requiring only C 0 elements to implement

  17. Age effects on explicit and implicit memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma eWard

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available It is well documented that explicit memory (e.g., recognition declines with age. In contrast, many argue that implicit memory (e.g., priming is preserved in healthy aging. For example, priming on tasks such as perceptual identification is often not statistically different in groups of young and older adults. Such observations are commonly taken as evidence for distinct explicit and implicit learning/memory systems. In this article we discuss several lines of evidence that challenge this view. We describe how patterns of differential age-related decline may arise from differences in the ways in which the two forms of memory are commonly measured, and review recent research suggesting that under improved measurement methods, implicit memory is not age-invariant. Formal computational models are of considerable utility in revealing the nature of underlying systems. We report the results of applying single and multiple-systems models to data on age effects in implicit and explicit memory. Model comparison clearly favours the single-system view. Implications for the memory systems debate are discussed.

  18. Age effects on explicit and implicit memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Emma V; Berry, Christopher J; Shanks, David R

    2013-01-01

    It is well-documented that explicit memory (e.g., recognition) declines with age. In contrast, many argue that implicit memory (e.g., priming) is preserved in healthy aging. For example, priming on tasks such as perceptual identification is often not statistically different in groups of young and older adults. Such observations are commonly taken as evidence for distinct explicit and implicit learning/memory systems. In this article we discuss several lines of evidence that challenge this view. We describe how patterns of differential age-related decline may arise from differences in the ways in which the two forms of memory are commonly measured, and review recent research suggesting that under improved measurement methods, implicit memory is not age-invariant. Formal computational models are of considerable utility in revealing the nature of underlying systems. We report the results of applying single and multiple-systems models to data on age effects in implicit and explicit memory. Model comparison clearly favors the single-system view. Implications for the memory systems debate are discussed.

  19. Optimized Explicit Runge--Kutta Schemes for the Spectral Difference Method Applied to Wave Propagation Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Parsani, Matteo

    2013-04-10

    Explicit Runge--Kutta schemes with large stable step sizes are developed for integration of high-order spectral difference spatial discretizations on quadrilateral grids. The new schemes permit an effective time step that is substantially larger than the maximum admissible time step of standard explicit Runge--Kutta schemes available in the literature. Furthermore, they have a small principal error norm and admit a low-storage implementation. The advantages of the new schemes are demonstrated through application to the Euler equations and the linearized Euler equations.

  20. Optimized Explicit Runge--Kutta Schemes for the Spectral Difference Method Applied to Wave Propagation Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Parsani, Matteo; Ketcheson, David I.; Deconinck, W.

    2013-01-01

    Explicit Runge--Kutta schemes with large stable step sizes are developed for integration of high-order spectral difference spatial discretizations on quadrilateral grids. The new schemes permit an effective time step that is substantially larger than the maximum admissible time step of standard explicit Runge--Kutta schemes available in the literature. Furthermore, they have a small principal error norm and admit a low-storage implementation. The advantages of the new schemes are demonstrated through application to the Euler equations and the linearized Euler equations.

  1. The spatial limitations of current neutral models of biodiversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rampal S Etienne

    Full Text Available The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography is increasingly accepted as an informative null model of community composition and dynamics. It has successfully produced macro-ecological patterns such as species-area relationships and species abundance distributions. However, the models employed make many unrealistic auxiliary assumptions. For example, the popular spatially implicit version assumes a local plot exchanging migrants with a large panmictic regional source pool. This simple structure allows rigorous testing of its fit to data. In contrast, spatially explicit models assume that offspring disperse only limited distances from their parents, but one cannot as yet test the significance of their fit to data. Here we compare the spatially explicit and the spatially implicit model, fitting the most-used implicit model (with two levels, local and regional to data simulated by the most-used spatially explicit model (where offspring are distributed about their parent on a grid according to either a radially symmetric Gaussian or a 'fat-tailed' distribution. Based on these fits, we express spatially implicit parameters in terms of spatially explicit parameters. This suggests how we may obtain estimates of spatially explicit parameters from spatially implicit ones. The relationship between these parameters, however, makes no intuitive sense. Furthermore, the spatially implicit model usually fits observed species-abundance distributions better than those calculated from the spatially explicit model's simulated data. Current spatially explicit neutral models therefore have limited descriptive power. However, our results suggest that a fatter tail of the dispersal kernel seems to improve the fit, suggesting that dispersal kernels with even fatter tails should be studied in future. We conclude that more advanced spatially explicit models and tools to analyze them need to be developed.

  2. SPATIALLY AUTOCORRELATED DEMOGRAPHY AND INTERPOND MIGRATION IN THE CALIFORNIA TIGER SALAMANDER (AMBYSTOME CALIFORNIENSE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    We investigated the metapopulation structure of the California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense) using a combination of indirect and direct methods to evaluate two key requirements of modern metapopulation models: 1) that patches support somewhat independent populations ...

  3. Implicit and explicit timing in oculomotor control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilhame Ameqrane

    Full Text Available The passage of time can be estimated either explicitly, e.g. before leaving home in the morning, or implicitly, e.g. when catching a flying ball. In the present study, the latency of saccadic eye movements was used to evaluate differences between implicit and explicit timing. Humans were required to make a saccade between a central and a peripheral position on a computer screen. The delay between the extinction of a central target and the appearance of an eccentric target was the independent variable that could take one out of four different values (400, 900, 1400 or 1900 ms. In target trials, the delay period lasted for one of the four durations randomly. At the end of the delay, a saccade was initiated by the appearance of an eccentric target. Cue&target trials were similar to target trials but the duration of the delay was visually cued. In probe trials, the duration of the upcoming delay was cued, but there was no eccentric target and subjects had to internally generate a saccade at the estimated end of the delay. In target and cue&target trials, the mean and variance of latency distributions decreased as delay duration increased. In cue&target trials latencies were shorter. In probe trials, the variance increased with increasing delay duration and scalar variability was observed. The major differences in saccadic latency distributions were observed between visually-guided (target and cue&target trials and internally-generated saccades (probe trials. In target and cue&target trials the timing of the response was implicit. In probe trials, the timing of the response was internally-generated and explicitly based on the duration of the visual cue. Scalar timing was observed only during probe trials. This study supports the hypothesis that there is no ubiquitous timing system in the brain but independent timing processes active depending on task demands.

  4. Explicit field realizations of W algebras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Shaowen; Liu Yuxiao; Ren Jirong; Zhang Lijie

    2009-01-01

    The fact that certain nonlinear W 2,s algebras can be linearized by the inclusion of a spin-1 current can provide a simple way to realize W 2,s algebras from linear W 1,2,s algebras. In this paper, we first construct the explicit field realizations of linear W 1,2,s algebras with double scalar and double spinor, respectively. Then, after a change of basis, the realizations of W 2,s algebras are presented. The results show that all these realizations are Romans-type realizations.

  5. Sexually explicit media use and relationship satisfaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veit, Maria; Stulhofer, Aleksandar; Hald, Gert Martin

    2017-01-01

    Using a cross-sectional questionnaire design and a sample of 2284 coupled Croatian adults, this study investigated the association between Sexually Explicit Media (SEM) use and relationship satisfaction. Further, possible moderation of emotional intimacy on the relationship between SEM use...... and relationship satisfaction was investigated. Controlling for sociodemographic, psychosexual and relationship variables, no significant association between SEM use and relationship satisfaction was found. However, among men, a moderating effect of emotional intimacy was found. Thus, higher SEM use was found...... to be significantly associated with lower relationship satisfaction only among men who reported lower levels of emotional intimacy with their partner....

  6. Explicit field realizations of W algebras

    OpenAIRE

    Wei, Shao-Wen; Liu, Yu-Xiao; Zhang, Li-Jie; Ren, Ji-Rong

    2009-01-01

    The fact that certain non-linear $W_{2,s}$ algebras can be linearized by the inclusion of a spin-1 current can provide a simple way to realize $W_{2,s}$ algebras from linear $W_{1,2,s}$ algebras. In this paper, we first construct the explicit field realizations of linear $W_{1,2,s}$ algebras with double-scalar and double-spinor, respectively. Then, after a change of basis, the realizations of $W_{2,s}$ algebras are presented. The results show that all these realizations are Romans-type realiz...

  7. Explicit MDS Codes with Complementary Duals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beelen, Duals Peter; Jin, Lingfei

    2018-01-01

    In 1964, Massey introduced a class of codes with complementary duals which are called Linear Complimentary Dual (LCD for short) codes. He showed that LCD codes have applications in communication system, side-channel attack (SCA) and so on. LCD codes have been extensively studied in literature....... On the other hand, MDS codes form an optimal family of classical codes which have wide applications in both theory and practice. The main purpose of this paper is to give an explicit construction of several classes of LCD MDS codes, using tools from algebraic function fields. We exemplify this construction...

  8. An explicit MOT-TDVIE scheme for analyzing electromagnetic field interactions on nonlinear scatterers

    KAUST Repository

    Ulku, Huseyin Arda

    2015-02-01

    An explicit marching on-in-time (MOT) based time domain electric field volume integral equation (TDVIE) solver for characterizing electromagnetic wave interactions on scatterers with nonlinear material properties is proposed. Discretization of the unknown electric field intensity and flux density is carried out by half and full Schaubert-Wilton-Glisson basis functions, respectively. Coupled system of spatially discretized TDVIE and the nonlinear constitutive relation between the field intensity and the flux density is integrated in time to compute the samples of the unknowns. An explicit PE(CE)m scheme is used for this purpose. Explicitness allows for \\'easy\\' incorporation of the nonlinearity as a function only to be evaluated on the right hand side of the coupled system of equations. A numerical example that demonstrates the applicability of the proposed MOT scheme to analyzing electromagnetic interactions on Kerr-nonlinear scatterers is presented. © 2015 IEEE.

  9. Spatial allocation of forest recreation value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth A. Baerenklau; Armando Gonzalez-Caban; Catrina Paez; Edgard Chavez

    2009-01-01

    Non-market valuation methods and geographic information systems are useful planning and management tools for public land managers. Recent attention has been given to investigation and demonstration of methods for combining these tools to provide spatially-explicit representations of non-market value. Most of these efforts have focused on spatial allocation of...

  10. Explicitly represented polygon wall boundary model for the explicit MPS method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsume, Naoto; Yoshimura, Shinobu; Murotani, Kohei; Yamada, Tomonori

    2015-05-01

    This study presents an accurate and robust boundary model, the explicitly represented polygon (ERP) wall boundary model, to treat arbitrarily shaped wall boundaries in the explicit moving particle simulation (E-MPS) method, which is a mesh-free particle method for strong form partial differential equations. The ERP model expresses wall boundaries as polygons, which are explicitly represented without using the distance function. These are derived so that for viscous fluids, and with less computational cost, they satisfy the Neumann boundary condition for the pressure and the slip/no-slip condition on the wall surface. The proposed model is verified and validated by comparing computed results with the theoretical solution, results obtained by other models, and experimental results. Two simulations with complex boundary movements are conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the E-MPS method to the ERP model.

  11. Implicit and explicit interethnic attitudes and ethnic discrimination in hiring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blommaert, E.C.C.A.; Tubergen, F.A. van; Coenders, M.T.A.

    2012-01-01

    We study effects of explicit and implicit interethnic attitudes on ethnic discrimination in hiring. Unlike explicit attitudes, implicit attitudes are characterised by reduced controllability, awareness or intention. Effects of implicit interethnic attitudes on ethnic discrimination in the labour

  12. Explicit estimating equations for semiparametric generalized linear latent variable models

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan; Genton, Marc G.

    2010-01-01

    which is similar to that of a sufficient complete statistic, which enables us to simplify the estimating procedure and explicitly to formulate the semiparametric estimating equations. We further show that the explicit estimators have the usual root n

  13. Developmental Differences in Implicit and Explicit Memory Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Lori A.; Peynircioglu, Zehra F.; Blaxton, Teresa A.

    1998-01-01

    Compared perceptual and conceptual implicit and explicit memory performance of preschool, elementary, and college students. Found that conceptual explicit memory improved with age. Perceptual explicit memory and implicit memory showed no developmental change. Perceptual processing during study led to better performance than conceptual processing…

  14. Reporting transparency: making the ethical mandate explicit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Stuart G; Langan, Sinéad M; Benchimol, Eric I; Moher, David

    2016-03-16

    Improving the transparency and quality of reporting in biomedical research is considered ethically important; yet, this is often based on practical reasons such as the facilitation of peer review. Surprisingly, there has been little explicit discussion regarding the ethical obligations that underpin reporting guidelines. In this commentary, we suggest a number of ethical drivers for the improved reporting of research. These ethical drivers relate to researcher integrity as well as to the benefits derived from improved reporting such as the fair use of resources, minimizing risk of harms, and maximizing benefits. Despite their undoubted benefit to reporting completeness, questions remain regarding the extent to which reporting guidelines can influence processes beyond publication, including researcher integrity or the uptake of scientific research findings into policy or practice. Thus, we consider investigation on the effects of reporting guidelines an important step in providing evidence of their benefits.

  15. Topology Optimization using an Explicit Interface Representation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Asger Nyman; Nobel-Jørgensen, Morten; Bærentzen, J. Andreas

    to handle topology changes. It does so by discretizing the entire design domain into an irregular adaptive triangle mesh and thereby explicitly representing both the structure and the embedding space. In other words, the entire design domain is divided into triangles, where the interface is represented....... To increase performance, degrees of freedom associated with void triangles are eliminated from the FE equation. Using the triangle mesh for computations is possible since the DSC method ensures a mesh with no degenerate elements. If the mesh contained degenerate or close to degenerate elements the FEM...... seconds on an ordinary laptop utilizing a single thread. In addition, a coarse solution to the same problem has been obtained in approximately 10 seconds....

  16. Generating transverse response explicitly from harmonic oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yuan; Tang, Ying; Ao, Ping

    2017-10-01

    We obtain stochastic dynamics from a system-plus-bath mechanism as an extension of the Caldeira-Leggett (CL) model in the classical regime. An effective magnetic field and response functions with both longitudinal and transverse parts are exactly generated from the bath of harmonic oscillators. The effective magnetic field and transverse response are antisymmetric matrices: the former is explicitly time-independent corresponding to the geometric magnetism, while the latter can have memory. The present model can be reduced to previous representative examples of stochastic dynamics describing nonequilibrium processes. Our results demonstrate that a system coupled with a bath of harmonic oscillators is a general approach to studying stochastic dynamics, and provides a method to experimentally implement an effective magnetic field from coupling to the environment.

  17. Fast isogeometric solvers for explicit dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Gao, Longfei

    2014-06-01

    In finite element analysis, solving time-dependent partial differential equations with explicit time marching schemes requires repeatedly applying the inverse of the mass matrix. For mass matrices that can be expressed as tensor products of lower dimensional matrices, we present a direct method that has linear computational complexity, i.e., O(N), where N is the total number of degrees of freedom in the system. We refer to these matrices as separable matrices. For non-separable mass matrices, we present a preconditioned conjugate gradient method with carefully designed preconditioners as an alternative. We demonstrate that these preconditioners, which are easy to construct and cheap to apply (O(N)), can deliver significant convergence acceleration. The performances of these preconditioners are independent of the polynomial order (p independence) and mesh resolution (h independence) for maximum continuity B-splines, as verified by various numerical tests. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

  18. Academic Publishing: Making the Implicit Explicit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecile Badenhorst

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available For doctoral students, publishing in peer-reviewed journals is a task many face with anxiety and trepidation. The world of publishing, from choosing a journal, negotiating with editors and navigating reviewers’ responses is a bewildering place. Looking in from the outside, it seems that successful and productive academic writers have knowledge that is inaccessible to novice scholars. While there is a growing literature on writing for scholarly publication, many of these publications promote writing and publishing as a straightforward activity that anyone can achieve if they follow the rules. We argue that the specific and situated contexts in which academic writers negotiate publishing practices is more complicated and messy. In this paper, we attempt to make explicit our publishing processes to highlight the complex nature of publishing. We use autoethnographic narratives to provide discussion points and insights into the challenges of publishing peer reviewed articles. One narrative is by a doctoral student at the beginning of her publishing career, who expresses her desires, concerns and anxieties about writing for publication. The other narrative focuses on the publishing practices of a more experienced academic writer. Both are international scholars working in the Canadian context. The purpose of this paper is to explore academic publishing through the juxtaposition of these two narratives to make explicit some of the more implicit processes. Four themes emerge from these narratives. To publish successfully, academic writers need: (1 to be discourse analysts; (2 to have a critical competence; (3 to have writing fluency; and (4 to be emotionally intelligent.

  19. Optimized low-order explicit Runge-Kutta schemes for high- order spectral difference method

    KAUST Repository

    Parsani, Matteo

    2012-01-01

    Optimal explicit Runge-Kutta (ERK) schemes with large stable step sizes are developed for method-of-lines discretizations based on the spectral difference (SD) spatial discretization on quadrilateral grids. These methods involve many stages and provide the optimal linearly stable time step for a prescribed SD spectrum and the minimum leading truncation error coefficient, while admitting a low-storage implementation. Using a large number of stages, the new ERK schemes lead to efficiency improvements larger than 60% over standard ERK schemes for 4th- and 5th-order spatial discretization.

  20. Parallel PWTD-Accelerated Explicit Solution of the Time Domain Electric Field Volume Integral Equation

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Yang

    2016-03-25

    A parallel plane-wave time-domain (PWTD)-accelerated explicit marching-on-in-time (MOT) scheme for solving the time domain electric field volume integral equation (TD-EFVIE) is presented. The proposed scheme leverages pulse functions and Lagrange polynomials to spatially and temporally discretize the electric flux density induced throughout the scatterers, and a finite difference scheme to compute the electric fields from the Hertz electric vector potentials radiated by the flux density. The flux density is explicitly updated during time marching by a predictor-corrector (PC) scheme and the vector potentials are efficiently computed by a scalar PWTD scheme. The memory requirement and computational complexity of the resulting explicit PWTD-PC-EFVIE solver scale as ( log ) s s O N N and ( ) s t O N N , respectively. Here, s N is the number of spatial basis functions and t N is the number of time steps. A scalable parallelization of the proposed MOT scheme on distributed- memory CPU clusters is described. The efficiency, accuracy, and applicability of the resulting (parallelized) PWTD-PC-EFVIE solver are demonstrated via its application to the analysis of transient electromagnetic wave interactions on canonical and real-life scatterers represented with up to 25 million spatial discretization elements.

  1. Parallel PWTD-Accelerated Explicit Solution of the Time Domain Electric Field Volume Integral Equation

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Yang; Al-Jarro, Ahmed; Bagci, Hakan; Michielssen, Eric

    2016-01-01

    A parallel plane-wave time-domain (PWTD)-accelerated explicit marching-on-in-time (MOT) scheme for solving the time domain electric field volume integral equation (TD-EFVIE) is presented. The proposed scheme leverages pulse functions and Lagrange polynomials to spatially and temporally discretize the electric flux density induced throughout the scatterers, and a finite difference scheme to compute the electric fields from the Hertz electric vector potentials radiated by the flux density. The flux density is explicitly updated during time marching by a predictor-corrector (PC) scheme and the vector potentials are efficiently computed by a scalar PWTD scheme. The memory requirement and computational complexity of the resulting explicit PWTD-PC-EFVIE solver scale as ( log ) s s O N N and ( ) s t O N N , respectively. Here, s N is the number of spatial basis functions and t N is the number of time steps. A scalable parallelization of the proposed MOT scheme on distributed- memory CPU clusters is described. The efficiency, accuracy, and applicability of the resulting (parallelized) PWTD-PC-EFVIE solver are demonstrated via its application to the analysis of transient electromagnetic wave interactions on canonical and real-life scatterers represented with up to 25 million spatial discretization elements.

  2. Improvement, Verification, and Refinement of Spatially-Explicit Exposure Models in Risk Assessment - FishRand Spatially-Explicit Bioaccumulation Model Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Unaccounted dynamic habitats and resultant changes in wildlife usage;  Simplified foraging strategies (lacking important considerations such as...and water exposures, fish foraging strategies, and PCB uptake. Figure 2 additionally shows the comparison of standard deviations across the...area (1, 2, and 5) at the Tyndall AFB site. ....................................... 22  Figure 5. Comparison of model predictions to site data for

  3. Environmental context effects in conceptual explicit and implicit memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Coyle, Anne-Marie

    2007-05-01

    Previous research has found environmental context effects for both conceptual explicit and conceptual implicit memory (Parker, Gellatly, & Waterman, 1999). The research presented here challenges these findings on methodological grounds. Experiment 1 assessed the effects of context change on category-exemplar generation (conceptual implicit memory test) and category-cued recall (conceptual explicit memory test). Experiment 2 assessed the effects of context change on word association (conceptual implicit memory test) and word associate cued recall (conceptual explicit memory test). In both experiments, study-test changes in environmental context were found to influence performance only on tests of explicit memory. It is concluded that when retrieval cues across explicit and implicit tests are matched, and the probability of explicit contamination is reduced, then only conceptual explicit test performance is reduced by study-test changes in environmental context.

  4. Implicit and explicit ethnocentrism: revisiting the ideologies of prejudice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, William A; Nezlek, John B; Banaji, Mahzarin R

    2004-10-01

    Two studies investigated relationships among individual differences in implicit and explicit prejudice, right-wing ideology, and rigidity in thinking. The first study examined these relationships focusing on White Americans' prejudice toward Black Americans. The second study provided the first test of implicit ethnocentrism and its relationship to explicit ethnocentrism by studying the relationship between attitudes toward five social groups. Factor analyses found support for both implicit and explicit ethnocentrism. In both studies, mean explicit attitudes toward out groups were positive, whereas implicit attitudes were negative, suggesting that implicit and explicit prejudices are distinct; however, in both studies, implicit and explicit attitudes were related (r = .37, .47). Latent variable modeling indicates a simple structure within this ethnocentric system, with variables organized in order of specificity. These results lead to the conclusion that (a) implicit ethnocentrism exists and (b) it is related to and distinct from explicit ethnocentrism.

  5. Open space preservation, property value, and optimal spatial configuration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong Jiang; Stephen K. Swallow

    2007-01-01

    The public has increasingly demonstrated a strong support for open space preservation. How to finance the socially efficient level of open space with the optimal spatial structure is of high policy relevance to local governments. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit open space model to help identify the socially optimal amount and optimal spatial...

  6. Implicit and explicit categorization of natural scenes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codispoti, Maurizio; Ferrari, Vera; De Cesarei, Andrea; Cardinale, Rossella

    2006-01-01

    Event-related potential (ERP) studies have consistently found that emotionally arousing (pleasant and unpleasant) pictures elicit a larger late positive potential (LPP) than neutral pictures in a window from 400 to 800 ms after picture onset. In addition, an early ERP component has been reported to vary with emotional arousal in a window from about 150 to 300 ms with affective, compared to neutral stimuli, prompting significantly less positivity over occipito-temporal sites. Similar early and late ERP components have been found in explicit categorization tasks, suggesting that selective attention to target features results in similar cortical changes. Several studies have shown that the affective modulation of the LPP persisted even when the same pictures are repeated several times, when they are presented as distractors, or when participants are engaged in a competing task. These results indicate that categorization of affective stimuli is an obligatory process. On the other hand, perceptual factors (e.g., stimulus size) seem to affect the early ERP component but not the affective modulation of the LPP. Although early and late ERP components vary with stimulus relevance, given that they are differentially affected by stimulus and task manipulations, they appear to index different facets of picture processing.

  7. Explicit constructions of automorphic L-functions

    CERN Document Server

    Gelbart, Stephen; Rallis, Stephen

    1987-01-01

    The goal of this research monograph is to derive the analytic continuation and functional equation of the L-functions attached by R.P. Langlands to automorphic representations of reductive algebraic groups. The first part of the book (by Piatetski-Shapiro and Rallis) deals with L-functions for the simple classical groups; the second part (by Gelbart and Piatetski-Shapiro) deals with non-simple groups of the form G GL(n), with G a quasi-split reductive group of split rank n. The method of proof is to construct certain explicit zeta-integrals of Rankin-Selberg type which interpolate the relevant Langlands L-functions and can be analyzed via the theory of Eisenstein series and intertwining operators. This is the first time such an approach has been applied to such general classes of groups. The flavor of the local theory is decidedly representation theoretic, and the work should be of interest to researchers in group representation theory as well as number theory.

  8. Explicit logic circuits discriminate neural states.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lane Yoder

    Full Text Available The magnitude and apparent complexity of the brain's connectivity have left explicit networks largely unexplored. As a result, the relationship between the organization of synaptic connections and how the brain processes information is poorly understood. A recently proposed retinal network that produces neural correlates of color vision is refined and extended here to a family of general logic circuits. For any combination of high and low activity in any set of neurons, one of the logic circuits can receive input from the neurons and activate a single output neuron whenever the input neurons have the given activity state. The strength of the output neuron's response is a measure of the difference between the smallest of the high inputs and the largest of the low inputs. The networks generate correlates of known psychophysical phenomena. These results follow directly from the most cost-effective architectures for specific logic circuits and the minimal cellular capabilities of excitation and inhibition. The networks function dynamically, making their operation consistent with the speed of most brain functions. The networks show that well-known psychophysical phenomena do not require extraordinarily complex brain structures, and that a single network architecture can produce apparently disparate phenomena in different sensory systems.

  9. Explicit information reduces discounting behavior in monkeys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John ePearson

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Animals are notoriously impulsive in common laboratory experiments, preferring smaller, sooner rewards to larger, delayed rewards even when this reduces average reward rates. By contrast, the same animals often engage in natural behaviors that require extreme patience, such as food caching, stalking prey, and traveling long distances to high quality food sites. One possible explanation for this discrepancy is that standard laboratory delay discounting tasks artificially inflate impulsivity by subverting animals’ common learning strategies. To test this idea, we examined choices made by rhesus macaques in two variants of a standard delay discounting task. In the conventional variant, post-reward delays were uncued and adjusted to render total trial length constant; in the second, all delays were cued explicitly. We found that measured discounting was significantly reduced in the cued task, with discount rates well below those reported in studies using the standard uncued design. When monkeys had complete information, their decisions were more consistent with a strategy of reward rate maximization. These results indicate that monkeys, and perhaps other animals, are more patient than is normally assumed, and that laboratory measures of delay discounting may overstate impulsivity.

  10. A new spatial multiple discrete-continuous modeling approach to land use change analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report formulates a multiple discrete-continuous probit (MDCP) land-use model within a : spatially explicit economic structural framework for land-use change decisions. The spatial : MDCP model is capable of predicting both the type and intensit...

  11. Spatially heterogeneous stochasticity and the adaptive diversification of dormancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajon, E; Venner, S; Menu, F

    2009-10-01

    Diversified bet-hedging, a strategy that leads several individuals with the same genotype to express distinct phenotypes in a given generation, is now well established as a common evolutionary response to environmental stochasticity. Life-history traits defined as diversified bet-hedging (e.g. germination or diapause strategies) display marked differences between populations in spatial proximity. In order to find out whether such differences can be explained by local adaptations to spatially heterogeneous environmental stochasticity, we explored the evolution of bet-hedging dormancy strategies in a metapopulation using a two-patch model with patch differences in stochastic juvenile survival. We found that spatial differences in the level of environmental stochasticity, restricted dispersal, increased fragmentation and intermediate survival during dormancy all favour the adaptive diversification of bet-hedging dormancy strategies. Density dependency also plays a major role in the diversification of dormancy strategies because: (i) it may interact locally with environmental stochasticity and amplify its effects; however, (ii) it can also generate chaotic population dynamics that may impede diversification. Our work proposes new hypotheses to explain the spatial patterns of bet-hedging strategies that we hope will encourage new empirical studies of this topic.

  12. Explicit goal-driven attention, unlike implicitly learned attention, spreads to secondary tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addleman, Douglas A; Tao, Jinyi; Remington, Roger W; Jiang, Yuhong V

    2018-03-01

    To what degree does spatial attention for one task spread to all stimuli in the attended region, regardless of task relevance? Most models imply that spatial attention acts through a unitary priority map in a task-general manner. We show that implicit learning, unlike endogenous spatial cuing, can bias spatial attention within one task without biasing attention to a spatially overlapping secondary task. Participants completed a visual search task superimposed on a background containing scenes, which they were told to encode for a later memory task. Experiments 1 and 2 used explicit instructions to bias spatial attention to one region for visual search; Experiment 3 used location probability cuing to implicitly bias spatial attention. In location probability cuing, a target appeared in one region more than others despite participants not being told of this. In all experiments, search performance was better in the cued region than in uncued regions. However, scene memory was better in the cued region only following endogenous guidance, not after implicit biasing of attention. These data support a dual-system view of top-down attention that dissociates goal-driven and implicitly learned attention. Goal-driven attention is task general, amplifying processing of a cued region across tasks, whereas implicit statistical learning is task-specific. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Towards a theoretical foundation for explicitation and implicitation

    OpenAIRE

    De Metsenaere, Hinde; Vandepitte, Sonia

    2017-01-01

    Explicitation and implicitation are two translation studies concepts that have given rise to a vast array of studies. These studies are, however, often difficult to compare, primarily because explicitation and implicitation have been interpreted differently, not rarely intuitively, by many translation studies researchers. This is due to the fact that the underlying concepts of explicitness and implicitness have not yet been satisfactorily defined for translation studies purposes. It is there...

  14. Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer A.; Cross, Todd B.; Schwartz, Michael K.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population genetics in the western United States.

  15. Chinese Undergraduates' Explicit and Implicit Attitudes toward Persons with Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuang; Ma, Li; Zhang, Jian-Xin

    2011-01-01

    The present study is aimed at examining implicit and explicit attitudes toward persons with disabilities among Chinese college students. The "Implicit Association Test" was used to measure their implicit attitudes, whereas their explicit attitudes toward persons with disabilities were measured by using a scale of three items.…

  16. From Explicit to Symbolic Types for Communication Protocols in CCS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielson, Hanne Riis; Nielson, Flemming; Kreiker, Jörg

    2012-01-01

    We study communication protocols having several rounds and expressed in value passing CCS. We develop a type-based analysis for providing an explicit record of all communications and show the usual subject reduction result. Since the explicit records can be infinitely large, we also develop a type...

  17. The Ms. Stereotype Revisited: Implicit and Explicit Facets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malcolmson, Kelly A.; Sinclair, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Implicit and explicit stereotypes toward the title Ms. were examined. Participants read a short description of a target person whose title of address varied (Ms., Mrs., Miss, Mr.). They then rated the person on agentic and communal traits and completed an Implicit Association Test. Replicating earlier research (Dion, 1987), at an explicit level,…

  18. Age and time effects on implicit and explicit learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verneau, M.; Kamp, J. van der; Savelsbergh, G.J.P.; Looze, M.P. de

    2014-01-01

    Study Context: It has been proposed that effects of aging are more pronounced for explicit than for implicit motor learning. The authors evaluated this claim by comparing the efficacy of explicit and implicit learning of a movement sequence in young and older adults, and by testing the resilience

  19. Age and Time Effects on Implicit and Explicit Learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verneau, M.M.N.; van der Kamp, J.; Savelsbergh, G.J.P.; de Looze, M.P.

    2014-01-01

    Study Context: It has been proposed that effects of aging are more pronounced for explicit than for implicit motor learning. The authors evaluated this claim by comparing the efficacy of explicit and implicit learning of a movement sequence in young and older adults, and by testing the resilience

  20. Explicitly solvable complex Chebyshev approximation problems related to sine polynomials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freund, Roland

    1989-01-01

    Explicitly solvable real Chebyshev approximation problems on the unit interval are typically characterized by simple error curves. A similar principle is presented for complex approximation problems with error curves induced by sine polynomials. As an application, some new explicit formulae for complex best approximations are derived.

  1. Implicit versus explicit : An ACT-R learning perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taatgen, N.A.

    1999-01-01

    Dienes & Perner propose a theory of implicit and explicit knowledge that is not entirely complete. It does not address many of the empirical issues, nor does it explain the difference between implicit and explicit learning. It does, however, provide a possible unified explanation, as opposed to the

  2. The Development of Explicit Memory for Basic Perceptual Features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulya, Michelle; Rossi-George, Alba; Hartshorn, Kristen; Vieira, Aurora; Rovee-Collier, Carolyn; Johnson, Marcia K.; Chalfonte, Barbara L.

    2002-01-01

    Three experiments with 164 individuals between 4 and 80 years old examined age-related changes in explicit memory for three perceptual features: item identity, color, and location. Findings indicated that performance on explicit memory tests was not a consistent inverted U-shaped function of age across various features, but depended on the…

  3. Gender Differences in Implicit and Explicit Memory for Affective Passages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Leslie A.; Rabin, Laura; Vardy, Susan Bernstein.; Frohlich, Jonathan; Wyatt, Gwinne; Dimitri, Diana; Constante, Shimon; Guterman, Elan

    2004-01-01

    Thirty-two participants were administered 4 verbal tasks, an Implicit Affective Task, an Implicit Neutral Task, an Explicit Affective Task, and an Explicit Neutral Task. For the Implicit Tasks, participants were timed while reading passages aloud as quickly as possible, but not so quickly that they did not understand. A target verbal passage was…

  4. On the Reliability of Implicit and Explicit Memory Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchner, Axel; Wippich, Werner

    2000-01-01

    Studied the reliability of implicit and explicit memory tests in experiments involving these tests. Results with 168, 84, 120, and 128 undergraduates show that methodological artifacts may cause implicit memory tests to have lower reliability than explicit memory tests, but that implicit tests need not necessarily be less reliable. (SLD)

  5. Implicit vs. Explicit Trust in Social Matrix Factorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fazeli, Soude; Loni, Babak; Bellogin, Alejandro; Drachsler, Hendrik; Sloep, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Incorporating social trust in Matrix Factorization (MF) methods demonstrably improves accuracy of rating prediction. Such approaches mainly use the trust scores explicitly expressed by users. However, it is often challenging to have users provide explicit trust scores of each other. There exist

  6. Panorama of explicit carbon pricing instruments around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-09-01

    In September 2016, I4CE updated its database on carbon pricing policies and published a panorama of explicit carbon pricing policies. This panorama presents an implementation timeline, a world map and a table that together, provide information on the jurisdictions that have implemented or plan to implement explicit carbon pricing policies, the type of instrument chosen, the sectors covered and the carbon prices

  7. Star formation, using 3-D explicit Eulerian hydrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, H.A.

    1988-01-01

    Evolutions of rapidly rotating, self-gravitating objects initially in axisymmetric equilibrium have been studied using a 3-D Newtonian hydrodynamic computer code with an eye toward understanding angular momentum transport in dynamically evolving protostars. First, a number of evolutions have been modeled using an existing explicit, Eulerian, finite difference code that is accurate to first-order in its spatial differences. The bar-mode dynamic instability has been explored by considering several models with different degrees of compressibility. This instability occurs in models with different degrees of comprresibility. This instability occurs in models having β > β d ≡ 0.27, where β is the ratio of the rotational to the gravitational potential energy. A two-armed spiral, with a well-defined pattern speed and growth rate that match the pattern speed and growth rate predicted by linear theory, develops from each of the axisymmetric equilibria. The models with greater compressibility exhibit spirals which are more tightly wound. As the nonaxisymmetric distortion become large in an extended evolution, the object does not undergo binary fission as had been thought earlier. Instead, the spiral elongates and then wraps up on itself, forming a central pulsating triaxial object surrounded by a more diffuse ring-like disk. Angular momentum and mass are dynamically redistributed by gravitational torques during the evolution, and β is reduced below β d . Since this gravitational-rotational dynamic instability is a general feature of gaseous systems, this study may have application to theta galaxies and to rapidly rotating neutron stars, as well as to protostars

  8. Moderators of Implicit-Explicit Exercise Cognition Concordance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Tanya R; Rodgers, Wendy M; Markland, David; Hall, Craig R

    2016-12-01

    Investigating implicit-explicit concordance can aid in understanding underlying mechanisms and possible intervention effects. This research examined the concordance between implicit associations of exercise with health or appearance and related explicit motives. Variables considered as possible moderators were behavioral regulations, explicit attitudes, and social desirability. Participants (N = 454) completed measures of implicit associations of exercise with health and appearance and questionnaire measures of health and appearance motives, attitudes, social desirability, and behavioral regulations. Attitudes significantly moderated the relationship between implicit associations of exercise with health and health motives. Identified regulations significantly moderated implicit-explicit concordance with respect to associations with appearance. These results suggest that implicit and explicit exercise-related cognitions are not necessarily independent and their relationship to each other may be moderated by attitudes or some forms of behavioral regulation. Future research that takes a dual-processing approach to exercise behavior should consider potential theoretical moderators of concordance.

  9. Control of boiler temperature with explicit MPC; Panntemperaturreglering med explicit MPC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slaetteke, Ola; Velut, Stefan; Raaberg, Martin

    2012-02-15

    MPC is the multivariable controller that has been most successful in the process industry and particularly the petrochemical industry. It has been described as one of the most significant developments in process control and the main reasons for this are: 1. It handles multivariable control problems in a natural manner. 2. It is relative easy to understand the structure of the controller, which is the same whether it is a simple loop or a multivariable system. 3. It handles limitations of both the process and other practical constraints in a systematic way. Examples of this is that a valve can only work between 0 and 100 %, but also that the CO-level in the flue gas must not exceed a certain level. 4. It allows for operating conditions near critical process boundaries, which in many cases is synonymous with increased production rates, reduced raw material consumption, better energy utilization, and faster process transitions. The aim of the project is to evaluate the potential of multivariable control in the form of explicit MPC in a boiler at Stora Enso Hylte Bruk. This research task can be divided into two sub-tasks: 1. General evaluation of explicit MPC. 2. Evaluation of multivariable control of boiler temperature The purpose of subtask one is to evaluate what is required of a facility owner to implement explicit MPC in a control system. This includes everything from available calculation tools, what is important to consider during the design phase of the controller, different pitfalls that exist, management of different operating modes, to how the controller should be implemented and commissioned. Subtask two is intended to evaluate the multivariable control of a boiler of CFB type (circulating fluidized bed). MPC controller will regulate the temperature in the boiler. In order to maintain the waste incineration directive, the temperature in the upper part of the boiler is controlled. This is done by means of changes in the flow of natural gas injection and

  10. Certain Verbs Are Syntactically Explicit Quantifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Szabolcsi

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Quantification over individuals, times, and worlds can in principle be made explicit in the syntax of the object language, or left to the semantics and spelled out in the meta-language. The traditional view is that quantification over individuals is syntactically explicit, whereas quantification over times and worlds is not. But a growing body of literature proposes a uniform treatment. This paper examines the scopal interaction of aspectual raising verbs (begin, modals (can, and intensional raising verbs (threaten with quantificational subjects in Shupamem, Dutch, and English. It appears that aspectual raising verbs and at least modals may undergo the same kind of overt or covert scope-changing operations as nominal quantifiers; the case of intensional raising verbs is less clear. Scope interaction is thus shown to be a new potential diagnostic of object-linguistic quantification, and the similarity in the scope behavior of nominal and verbal quantifiers supports the grammatical plausibility of ontological symmetry, explored in Schlenker (2006.ReferencesBen-Shalom, D. 1996. Semantic Trees. Ph.D. thesis, UCLA.Bittner, M. 1993. Case, Scope, and Binding. Dordrecht: Reidel.Cresswell, M. 1990. Entities and Indices. Dordrecht: Kluwer.Cresti, D. 1995. ‘Extraction and reconstruction’. Natural Language Semantics 3: 79–122.http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01252885Curry, B. H. & Feys, R. 1958. Combinatory Logic I. Dordrecht: North-Holland.Dowty, D. R. 1988. ‘Type raising, functional composition, and non-constituent conjunction’. In Richard T. Oehrle, Emmon W. Bach & Deirdre Wheeler (eds. ‘Categorial Grammars and Natural Language Structures’, 153–197. Dordrecht: Reidel.Fox, D. 2002. ‘TOn Logical Form’. In Randall Hendrick (ed. ‘Minimalist Syntax’, 82–124. Oxford: Blackwell.Gallin, D. 1975. Intensional and higher-order modal logic: with applications to Montague semantics. North Holland Pub. Co.; American Elsevier Pub. Co., Amsterdam

  11. Spatial Operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anda VELICANU

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper contains a brief description of the most important operations that can be performed on spatial data such as spatial queries, create, update, insert, delete operations, conversions, operations on the map or analysis on grid cells. Each operation has a graphical example and some of them have code examples in Oracle and PostgreSQL.

  12. Spatializing Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Bodil Marie Stavning

    2011-01-01

    The article analyses some of artist Søren Lose's photographic installations in which time, history and narration is reflected in the creation of allegoric, spatial relations.......The article analyses some of artist Søren Lose's photographic installations in which time, history and narration is reflected in the creation of allegoric, spatial relations....

  13. Spatial Computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-12-01

    Computation and today’s microprocessors with the approach to operating system architecture, and the controversy between microkernels and monolithic kernels...Both Spatial Computation and microkernels break away a relatively monolithic architecture into in- dividual lightweight pieces, well specialized...for their particular functionality. Spatial Computation removes global signals and control, in the same way microkernels remove the global address

  14. Measuring Explicit Word Learning of Preschool Children: A Development Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Elizabeth Spencer

    2017-08-15

    The purpose of this article is to present preliminary results related to the development of a new measure of explicit word learning. The measure incorporated elements of explicit vocabulary instruction and dynamic assessment and was designed to be sensitive to differences in word learning skill and to be feasible for use in clinical settings. The explicit word learning measure included brief teaching trials and repeated fine-grained measurement of semantic knowledge and production of 3 novel words (2 verbs and 1 adjective). Preschool children (N = 23) completed the measure of explicit word learning; standardized, norm-referenced measures of expressive and receptive vocabulary; and an incidental word learning task. The measure of explicit word learning provided meaningful information about word learning. Performance on the explicit measure was related to existing vocabulary knowledge and incidental word learning. Findings from this development study indicate that further examination of the measure of explicit word learning is warranted. The measure may have the potential to identify children who are poor word learners. https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.5170738.

  15. The effect of explicit financial incentives on physician behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, B S; Pitts, M M; Maclean, R; Cangialose, C; Kishel, M; Imai, H; Etchason, J

    2001-05-28

    Managed care organizations use explicit financial incentives to influence physicians' use of resources. This has contributed to concerns regarding conflicts of interest for physicians and adverse effects on the quality of patient care. In light of recent publicized legislative and legal battles about this issue, we reviewed the literature and analyzed studies that examine the effect of these explicit financial incentives on the behavior of physicians. The method used to undertake the literature review followed the approach set forth in the Cochrane Collaboration handbook. Our literature review revealed a paucity of data on the effect of explicit financial incentives. Based on this limited evidence, explicit incentives that place individual physicians at financial risk appear to be effective in reducing physician resource use. However, the empirical evidence regarding the effectiveness of bonus payments on physician resource use is mixed. Similarly, our review revealed mixed effects of the influence of explicit financial incentives on the quality of patient care. The effect of explicit financial incentives on physician behavior is complicated by a lack of understanding of the incentive structure by the managed care organization and the physician. The lack of a universally acceptable definition of quality renders it important that future researchers identify the term explicitly.

  16. Subliminal mere exposure and explicit and implicit positive affective responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Joshua A; King, Laura A

    2011-06-01

    Research suggests that repeated subliminal exposure to environmental stimuli enhances positive affective responses. To date, this research has primarily concentrated on the effects of repeated exposure on explicit measures of positive affect (PA). However, recent research suggests that repeated subliminal presentations may increase implicit PA as well. The present study tested this hypothesis. Participants were either subliminally primed with repeated presentations of the same stimuli or only exposed to each stimulus one time. Results confirmed predictions showing that repeated exposure to the same stimuli increased both explicit and implicit PA. Implications for the role of explicit and implicit PA in attitudinal judgements are discussed.

  17. How and Why Do Number-Space Associations Co-Vary in Implicit and Explicit Magnitude Processing Tasks?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carrie Georges

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Evidence for number-space associations in implicit and explicit magnitude processing tasks comes from the parity and magnitude SNARC effect respectively. Different spatial accounts were suggested to underlie these spatial-numerical associations (SNAs with some inconsistencies in the literature. To determine whether the parity and magnitude SNAs arise from a single predominant account or task-dependent coding mechanisms, we adopted an individual differences approach to study their correlation and the extent of their association with arithmetic performance, spatial visualization ability and visualization profile. Additionally, we performed moderation analyses to determine whether the relation between these SNAs depended on individual differences in those cognitive factors. The parity and magnitude SNAs did not correlate and were differentially predicted by arithmetic performance and visualization profile respectively. These variables, however, also moderated the relation between the SNAs. While positive correlations were observed in object-visualizers with lower arithmetic performances, correlations were negative in spatial-visualizers with higher arithmetic performances. This suggests the predominance of a single account for both implicit and explicit SNAs in the two types of visualizers. However, the spatial nature of the account differs between object- and spatial-visualizers. No relation occurred in mixed-visualizers, indicating the activation of task-dependent coding mechanisms. Individual differences in arithmetic performance and visualization profile thus determined whether SNAs in implicit and explicit tasks co-varied and supposedly relied on similar or unrelated spatial coding mechanisms. This explains some inconsistencies in the literature regarding SNAs and highlights the usefulness of moderation analyses for understanding how the relation between different numerical concepts varies between individuals.

  18. Combined action of time-delay and colored cross-associated multiplicative and additive noises on stability and stochastic resonance for a stochastic metapopulation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kang-Kang; Zong, De-Cai; Wang, Ya-Jun; Li, Sheng-Hong

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, the transition between the stable state of a big density and the extinction state and stochastic resonance (SR) for a time-delayed metapopulation system disturbed by colored cross-correlated noises are investigated. By applying the fast descent method, the small time-delay approximation and McNamara and Wiesenfeld's SR theory, we investigate the impacts of time-delay, the multiplicative, additive noises and colored cross-correlated noise on the SNR and the shift between the two states of the system. Numerical results show that the multiplicative, additive noises and time-delay can all speed up the transition from the stable state to the extinction state, while the correlation noise and its correlation time can slow down the extinction process of the population system. With respect to SNR, the multiplicative noise always weakens the SR effect, while noise correlation time plays a dual role in motivating the SR phenomenon. Meanwhile, time-delay mainly plays a negative role in stimulating the SR phenomenon. Conversely, it could motivate the SR effect to increase the strength of the cross-correlation noise in the SNR-β plot, while the increase of additive noise intensity will firstly excite SR, and then suppress the SR effect.

  19. Tigers in the Terai: Strong evidence for meta-population dynamics contributing to tiger recovery and conservation in the Terai Arc Landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanchan Thapa

    Full Text Available The source populations of tigers are mostly confined to protected areas, which are now becoming isolated. A landscape scale conservation strategy should strive to facilitate dispersal and survival of dispersing tigers by managing habitat corridors that enable tigers to traverse the matrix with minimal conflict. We present evidence for tiger dispersal along transboundary protected areas complexes in the Terai Arc Landscape, a priority tiger landscape in Nepal and India, by comparing camera trap data, and through population models applied to the long term camera trap data sets. The former showed that 11 individual tigers used the corridors that connected the transboundary protected areas. The estimated population growth rates using the minimum observed population size in two protected areas in Nepal, Bardia National Park and Suklaphanta National Park showed that the increases were higher than expected from growth rates due to in situ reproduction alone. These lines of evidence suggests that tigers are recolonizing Nepal's protected areas from India, after a period of population decline, and that the tiger populations in the transboundary protected areas complexes may be maintained as meta-population. Our results demonstrate the importance of adopting a landscape-scale approach to tiger conservation, especially to improve population recovery and long term population persistence.

  20. Spatially explicit estimation of aboveground boreal forest biomass in the Yukon River Basin, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Lei; Wylie, Bruce K.; Brown, Dana R. N.; Peterson, Birgit E.; Alexander, Heather D.; Mack, Michelle C.; Rover, Jennifer R.; Waldrop, Mark P.; McFarland, Jack W.; Chen, Xuexia; Pastick, Neal J.

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of aboveground biomass (AGB) in Alaska’s boreal forest is essential to the accurate evaluation of terrestrial carbon stocks and dynamics in northern high-latitude ecosystems. Our goal was to map AGB at 30 m resolution for the boreal forest in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska using Landsat data and ground measurements. We acquired Landsat images to generate a 3-year (2008–2010) composite of top-of-atmosphere reflectance for six bands as well as the brightness temperature (BT). We constructed a multiple regression model using field-observed AGB and Landsat-derived reflectance, BT, and vegetation indices. A basin-wide boreal forest AGB map at 30 m resolution was generated by applying the regression model to the Landsat composite. The fivefold cross-validation with field measurements had a mean absolute error (MAE) of 25.7 Mg ha−1 (relative MAE 47.5%) and a mean bias error (MBE) of 4.3 Mg ha−1(relative MBE 7.9%). The boreal forest AGB product was compared with lidar-based vegetation height data; the comparison indicated that there was a significant correlation between the two data sets.

  1. Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes: a spatially explicit approach to support sustainable soil management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forouzangohar, Mohsen; Crossman, Neville D; MacEwan, Richard J; Wallace, D Dugal; Bennett, Lauren T

    2014-01-01

    Soil degradation has been associated with a lack of adequate consideration of soil ecosystem services. We demonstrate a broadly applicable method for mapping changes in the supply of two priority soil ecosystem services to support decisions about sustainable land-use configurations. We used a landscape-scale study area of 302 km(2) in northern Victoria, south-eastern Australia, which has been cleared for intensive agriculture. Indicators representing priority soil services (soil carbon sequestration and soil water storage) were quantified and mapped under both a current and a future 25-year land-use scenario (the latter including a greater diversity of land uses and increased perennial crops and irrigation). We combined diverse methods, including soil analysis using mid-infrared spectroscopy, soil biophysical modelling, and geostatistical interpolation. Our analysis suggests that the future land-use scenario would increase the landscape-level supply of both services over 25 years. Soil organic carbon content and water storage to 30 cm depth were predicted to increase by about 11% and 22%, respectively. Our service maps revealed the locations of hotspots, as well as potential trade-offs in service supply under new land-use configurations. The study highlights the need to consider diverse land uses in sustainable management of soil services in changing agricultural landscapes.

  2. Assessing Sustainability of Coral Reef Ecosystem Services using a Spatially-Explicit Decision Support Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forecasting and communicating the potential outcomes of decision options requires support tools that aid in evaluating alternative scenarios in a user-friendly context and that highlight variables relevant to the decision options and valuable stakeholders. Envision is a GIS-base...

  3. EnviroAtlas: A Spatially Explicit Tool Combining Climate Change Scenarios with Ecosystem Services Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    While discussions of global climate change tend to center on greenhouse gases and seal level rise, other factors, such as technological developments, land and energy use, economics, and population growth all play a critical role in understanding climate change. There is increasi...

  4. EnviroAtlas: A Spatially Explicit Tool Combining Climate Change Scenarios and Ecosystem ServicesIndicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    While discussions of global climate change tend to center on greenhouse gases and sea level rise, other factors, such as technological developments, land and energy use, economics, and population growth all play a critical role in understanding climate change. There is increasin...

  5. Recovering the geographic origin of early modern humans by realistic and spatially explicit simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Ray, Nicolas; Currat, Mathias; Berthier, Pierre; Excoffier, Laurent

    2005-01-01

    Most genetic and archeological evidence argue in favor of a recent and unique origin of modern humans in sub-Saharan Africa, but no attempt has ever been made at quantifying the likelihood of this model, relative to alternative hypotheses of human evolution. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of using multilocus genetic data to correctly infer the geographic origin of humans, and to distinguish between a unique origin (UO) and a multiregional evolution (ME) model. We introduce here...

  6. Spatially-explicit LCIA model for marine eutrophication as a tool for sustainability assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2014-01-01

    The increasing emissions from human activities are overrunning the ecosystems’ natural capacity to absorb them. Nutrient emissions, mostly nitrogen- and phosphorus-forms (N, P) from e.g. agricultural runoff and combustion processes, may lead to social-economic impacts and environmental quality......-enrichment to impacts on marine ecosystems. Emitted nitrogen reaches marine coastal waters where it promotes the growth of phytoplankton biomass in the surface photic zone from where it eventually sinks to bottom waters. This downward flux of organic matter is respired there by bacteria resulting in the consumption...... of dissolved oxygen. An excessive depletion of oxygen affects the exposed organisms and loss of species diversity may be expected. A model framework was built to estimate the potential impacts arising from N-emissions (see figure). It combines the fate of N in rivers and coastal waters, the exposure...

  7. Spatially explicit characterization of acidifying and eutrophying air pollution in life-cycle assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbregts, Mark A J; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Verkuijlen, Evert; Heijungs, Reinout; Reijnders, Lucas

    2001-01-01

    Simple models are often used to assess the potential impact of acidifying and eutrophying substances released during the life cycle of products. As fate, background depositions, and ecosystem sensitivity are not included in these models, environmental life-cycle assessment of products (LCA) may

  8. Spatially explicit modeling of lesser prairie-chicken lek density in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmer, Jennifer M.; Butler, M.J.; Ballard, Warren; Boal, Clint W.; Whitlaw, Heather A.

    2014-01-01

    As with many other grassland birds, lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) have experienced population declines in the Southern Great Plains. Currently they are proposed for federal protection under the Endangered Species Act. In addition to a history of land-uses that have resulted in habitat loss, lesser prairie-chickens now face a new potential disturbance from energy development. We estimated lek density in the occupied lesser prairie-chicken range of Texas, USA, and modeled anthropogenic and vegetative landscape features associated with lek density. We used an aerial line-transect survey method to count lesser prairie-chicken leks in spring 2010 and 2011 and surveyed 208 randomly selected 51.84-km(2) blocks. We divided each survey block into 12.96-km(2) quadrats and summarized landscape variables within each quadrat. We then used hierarchical distance-sampling models to examine the relationship between lek density and anthropogenic and vegetative landscape features and predict how lek density may change in response to changes on the landscape, such as an increase in energy development. Our best models indicated lek density was related to percent grassland, region (i.e., the northeast or southwest region of the Texas Panhandle), total percentage of grassland and shrubland, paved road density, and active oil and gas well density. Predicted lek density peaked at 0.39leks/12.96km(2) (SE=0.09) and 2.05leks/12.96km(2) (SE=0.56) in the northeast and southwest region of the Texas Panhandle, respectively, which corresponds to approximately 88% and 44% grassland in the northeast and southwest region. Lek density increased with an increase in total percentage of grassland and shrubland and was greatest in areas with lower densities of paved roads and lower densities of active oil and gas wells. We used the 2 most competitive models to predict lek abundance and estimated 236 leks (CV=0.138, 95% CI=177-306leks) for our sampling area. Our results suggest that managing landscapes to maintain a greater percentage of grassland and shrubland on the landscape with a greater ratio of grasses to shrubs in the northeast Panhandle should promote greater lek density. Furthermore, increases in paved road and active oil and gas well densities may reduce lek density. This information will be useful for future conservation planning efforts for land protection, policy decisions, and decision analyses.

  9. Mapping the impacts of thermoelectric power generation: a global, spatially explicit database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raptis, Catherine; Pfister, Stephan

    2017-04-01

    Thermoelectric power generation is associated with environmental pressures resulting from emissions to air and water, as well as water consumption. The need to achieve global coverage in related studies has become pressing in view of climate change. At the same time, the ability to quantify impacts from power production on a high resolution remains pertinent, given their highly regionalized nature, particularly when it comes to water-related impacts. Efforts towards global coverage have increased in recent years, but most work on the impacts of global electricity production presents a coarse geographical differentiation. Over the past few years we have begun a concerted effort to create and make available a global georeferenced inventory of thermoelectric power plant operational characteristics and emissions, by modelling the relevant processes on the highest possible level: that of a generating unit. Our work extends and enhances a commercially available global power plant database, and so far includes: - Georeferencing the generating units and populating the gaps in their steam properties. - Identifying the cooling system for 92% of the global installed thermoelectric power capacity. - Using the completed steam property data, along with local environmental temperature data, to systematically solve the Rankine cycle for each generating unit, involving: i) distinguishing between simple, reheat, and cogenerative cycles, and accounting for particularities in nuclear power cycles; ii) accounting for the effect of different cooling systems (once-through, recirculating (wet tower), dry cooling) on the thermodynamic cycle. One of the direct outcomes of solving the Rankine cycle is the cycle efficiency, an indispensable parameter in any study related to power production, including the quantification of air emissions and water consumption. Another direct output, for those units employing once-through cooling, is the rate of heat rejection to water, which can lead to thermal pollution. The opportunities afforded by the creation of this comprehensive database are numerous, including its use in integrated studies of electricity production and environmental burden, on local or global scales. The quantification, on the highest possible geographical and technological resolution, of all the different current impacts caused by thermoelectric power generation is crucial in order to conduct a proper assessment of the trade-offs in impacts in future scenario studies including technological changes, and to avoid burden-shifting. Here, we present the progress made in the building of the database so far, as well as the results of its application in a worldwide study of the thermal stress of rivers from the heat rejected by power plants using once-through cooling systems.

  10. Spatially explicit analysis of land use change : a case study for Ecuador

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koning, de F.

    1999-01-01

    Introduction and objectives

    Within agricultural research increasing attention is paid to the integrated study of agro-ecosystems in order to address issues related to sustainable food production at the eco-regional level. This has been stimulated by

  11. Spatially explicit Schistosoma infection risk in eastern Africa using Bayesian geostatistical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie

    2013-01-01

    are currently infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. Country-specific population-adjusted prevalence estimates range between 12.9% (Uganda) and 34.5% (Mozambique) for S. mansoni and between 11.9% (Djibouti) and 40.9% (Mozambique) for S. haematobium. Our models revealed...

  12. European vulnerability to global change: a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metzger, M.J.

    2005-01-01

    Many aspects of our planet are changing rapidly because of to human activities and these changes are expected to accelerate during the next decades. For example, forest area in the tropics is declining, many species are threatened with extinction, and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide results in

  13. Improvement, Verification, and Refinement of Spatially-Explicit Exposure Models in Risk Assessment - SEEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    is Beltsville silt loam. Land use in the watershed is mainly upland or wetland forests, with significant urban and agricultural development. The...covered with extensive woodlands and wetlands that provide habitat for many animals, including white tail deer, foxes, and wild turkeys. The area is

  14. Improvement, Verification, and Refinement of Spatially Explicit Exposure Models in Risk Assessment - SEEM Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    is Beltsville silt loam. Land use in the watershed is mainly upland or wetland forests, with significant urban and agricultural development. The...covered with extensive woodlands and wetlands that provide habitat for many animals, including white tail deer, foxes, and wild turkeys. The area is

  15. Spatially-explicit modelling model for assessing wild dog control strategies in Western Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Large predators can significantly impact livestock industries. In Australia, wild dogs (Canis lupus familiaris, Canis lupus dingo, and hybrids) cause economic losses of more than AUD $40M annually. Landscape-scale exclusion fencing coupled with lethal techniques is a widely pract...

  16. Moderators of the Relationship between Implicit and Explicit Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosek, Brian A.

    2005-01-01

    Automatic and controlled modes of evaluation sometimes provide conflicting reports of the quality of social objects. This paper presents evidence for four moderators of the relationship between automatic (implicit) and controlled (explicit) evaluations. Implicit and explicit preferences were measured for a variety of object pairs using a large sample. The average correlation was r = .36, and 52 of the 57 object pairs showed a significant positive correlation. Results of multilevel modeling analyses suggested that: (a) implicit and explicit preferences are related, (b) the relationship varies as a function of the objects assessed, and (c) at least four variables moderate the relationship – self-presentation, evaluative strength, dimensionality, and distinctiveness. The variables moderated implicit-explicit correspondence across individuals and accounted for much of the observed variation across content domains. The resulting model of the relationship between automatic and controlled evaluative processes is grounded in personal experience with the targets of evaluation. PMID:16316292

  17. Recent Advances in Explicit Multiparametric Nonlinear Model Predictive Control

    KAUST Repository

    Domínguez, Luis F.; Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N.

    2011-01-01

    are derived. The performance of the explicit controllers are then tested and compared in a simulation example involving the operation of a continuous stirred-tank reactor (CSTR). © 2010 American Chemical Society.

  18. Two explicit formulas for the generalized Motzkin numbers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiao-Lian Zhao

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In the paper, by the Faà di Bruno formula, the authors establish two explicit formulas for the Motzkin numbers, the generalized Motzkin numbers, and the restricted hexagonal numbers.

  19. Explicit TE/TM scheme for particle beam simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dohlus, M.; Zagorodnov, I.

    2008-10-01

    In this paper we propose an explicit two-level conservative scheme based on a TE/TM like splitting of the field components in time. Its dispersion properties are adjusted to accelerator problems. It is simpler and faster than the implicit version. It does not have dispersion in the longitudinal direction and the dispersion properties in the transversal plane are improved. The explicit character of the new scheme allows a uniformly stable conformal method without iterations and the scheme can be parallelized easily. It assures energy and charge conservation. A version of this explicit scheme for rotationally symmetric structures is free from the progressive time step reducing for higher order azimuthal modes as it takes place for Yee's explicit method used in the most popular electrodynamics codes. (orig.)

  20. Explicit Solutions for One-Dimensional Mean-Field Games

    KAUST Repository

    Prazeres, Mariana

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, we consider stationary one-dimensional mean-field games (MFGs) with or without congestion. Our aim is to understand the qualitative features of these games through the analysis of explicit solutions. We are particularly interested

  1. Explicit Nonlinear Model Predictive Control Theory and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Grancharova, Alexandra

    2012-01-01

    Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) has become the accepted methodology to solve complex control problems related to process industries. The main motivation behind explicit NMPC is that an explicit state feedback law avoids the need for executing a numerical optimization algorithm in real time. The benefits of an explicit solution, in addition to the efficient on-line computations, include also verifiability of the implementation and the possibility to design embedded control systems with low software and hardware complexity. This book considers the multi-parametric Nonlinear Programming (mp-NLP) approaches to explicit approximate NMPC of constrained nonlinear systems, developed by the authors, as well as their applications to various NMPC problem formulations and several case studies. The following types of nonlinear systems are considered, resulting in different NMPC problem formulations: Ø  Nonlinear systems described by first-principles models and nonlinear systems described by black-box models; �...

  2. Do quarks play an explicit role as nuclear constituents ?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamazaki, Toshimitsu.

    1986-10-01

    Experimental signatures for explicit roles of quarks as nuclear constituents are looked for. It is stressed that hyperons in nuclei may reveal unique information on nuclear interior and possible quark deconfinement. Future directions of hypernuclear spectroscopy are discussed. (author)

  3. Sleep benefits in parallel implicit and explicit measures of episodic memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Frederik D.; Wang, Jing-Yi; Born, Jan; Inostroza, Marion

    2014-01-01

    Research in rats using preferences during exploration as a measure of memory has indicated that sleep is important for the consolidation of episodic-like memory, i.e., memory for an event bound into specific spatio-temporal context. How these findings relate to human episodic memory is unclear. We used spontaneous preferences during visual exploration and verbal recall as, respectively, implicit and explicit measures of memory, to study effects of sleep on episodic memory consolidation in humans. During encoding before 10-h retention intervals that covered nighttime sleep or daytime wakefulness, two groups of young adults were presented with two episodes that were 1-h apart. Each episode entailed a spatial configuration of four different faces in a 3 × 3 grid of locations. After the retention interval, implicit spatio-temporal recall performance was assessed by eye-tracking visual exploration of another configuration of four faces of which two were from the first and second episode, respectively; of the two faces one was presented at the same location as during encoding and the other at another location. Afterward explicit verbal recall was assessed. Measures of implicit and explicit episodic memory retention were positively correlated (r = 0.57, P memory recall was associated with increased fast spindles during nonrapid eye movement (NonREM) sleep (r = 0.62, P memory benefits from sleep. PMID:24634354

  4. Explicit formula for a fundamental class of functions

    OpenAIRE

    Avdispahić, Muharem; Smajlović, Lejla

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to prove an analogue of A. Weil's explicit formula for a fundamental class of functions, i.e. the class of meromorphic functions that have an Euler sum representation and satisfy certain a functional equation. The advance of this explicit formula is that it enlarges the class of allowed test functions, from the class of functions with bounded Jordan variation to the class of functions of $\\phi $-bounded variation. A condition posed to the test fu...

  5. Higgs pair production in the MSSM with explicit CP violation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demir, D.A.

    1999-07-01

    In the minimal supersymmetric standard model with explicit CP violation, associated production of the lightest Higgs boson with heavier ones is analyzed. Due to explicit CP violation, the Higgs bosons are no longer CP eigenstates so that both of the heavy Higgs bosons contribute to the process. While the radiative corrections in the Higgs sector turn out to be quite important, the vertex radiative corrections remain small as in the CP conserving theory. (author)

  6. Explicit and implicit reinforcement learning across the psychosis spectrum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barch, Deanna M; Carter, Cameron S; Gold, James M; Johnson, Sheri L; Kring, Ann M; MacDonald, Angus W; Pizzagalli, Diego A; Ragland, J Daniel; Silverstein, Steven M; Strauss, Milton E

    2017-07-01

    Motivational and hedonic impairments are core features of a variety of types of psychopathology. An important aspect of motivational function is reinforcement learning (RL), including implicit (i.e., outside of conscious awareness) and explicit (i.e., including explicit representations about potential reward associations) learning, as well as both positive reinforcement (learning about actions that lead to reward) and punishment (learning to avoid actions that lead to loss). Here we present data from paradigms designed to assess both positive and negative components of both implicit and explicit RL, examine performance on each of these tasks among individuals with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, and bipolar disorder with psychosis, and examine their relative relationships to specific symptom domains transdiagnostically. None of the diagnostic groups differed significantly from controls on the implicit RL tasks in either bias toward a rewarded response or bias away from a punished response. However, on the explicit RL task, both the individuals with schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder performed significantly worse than controls, but the individuals with bipolar did not. Worse performance on the explicit RL task, but not the implicit RL task, was related to worse motivation and pleasure symptoms across all diagnostic categories. Performance on explicit RL, but not implicit RL, was related to working memory, which accounted for some of the diagnostic group differences. However, working memory did not account for the relationship of explicit RL to motivation and pleasure symptoms. These findings suggest transdiagnostic relationships across the spectrum of psychotic disorders between motivation and pleasure impairments and explicit RL. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Recent Advances in Explicit Multiparametric Nonlinear Model Predictive Control

    KAUST Repository

    Domínguez, Luis F.

    2011-01-19

    In this paper we present recent advances in multiparametric nonlinear programming (mp-NLP) algorithms for explicit nonlinear model predictive control (mp-NMPC). Three mp-NLP algorithms for NMPC are discussed, based on which novel mp-NMPC controllers are derived. The performance of the explicit controllers are then tested and compared in a simulation example involving the operation of a continuous stirred-tank reactor (CSTR). © 2010 American Chemical Society.

  8. Parallel, explicit, and PWTD-enhanced time domain volume integral equation solver

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Yang

    2013-07-01

    Time domain volume integral equations (TDVIEs) are useful for analyzing transient scattering from inhomogeneous dielectric objects in applications as varied as photonics, optoelectronics, and bioelectromagnetics. TDVIEs typically are solved by implicit marching-on-in-time (MOT) schemes [N. T. Gres et al., Radio Sci., 36, 379-386, 2001], requiring the solution of a system of equations at each and every time step. To reduce the computational cost associated with such schemes, [A. Al-Jarro et al., IEEE Trans. Antennas Propagat., 60, 5203-5215, 2012] introduced an explicit MOT-TDVIE method that uses a predictor-corrector technique to stably update field values throughout the scatterer. By leveraging memory-efficient nodal spatial discretization and scalable parallelization schemes [A. Al-Jarro et al., in 28th Int. Rev. Progress Appl. Computat. Electromagn., 2012], this solver has been successfully applied to the analysis of scattering phenomena involving 0.5 million spatial unknowns. © 2013 IEEE.

  9. Explicit time marching methods for the time-dependent Euler computations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tai, C.H.; Chiang, D.C.; Su, Y.P.

    1997-01-01

    Four explicit type time marching methods, including one proposed by the authors, are examined. The TVD conditions of this method are analyzed with the linear conservation law as the model equation. Performance of these methods when applied to the Euler equations are numerically tested. Seven examples are tested, the main concern is the performance of the methods when discontinuities with different strengths are encountered. When the discontinuity is getting stronger, spurious oscillation shows up for three existing methods, while the method proposed by the authors always gives the results with satisfaction. The effect of the limiter is also investigated. To put these methods in the same basis for the comparison the same spatial discretization is used. Roe's solver is used to evaluate the fluxes at the cell interface; spatially second-order accuracy is achieved by the MUSCL reconstruction. 19 refs., 8 figs

  10. Spatial self-organization in a multi-strain host–pathogen system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Quan-Xing; Van de Koppel, Johan; Wang, Rong-Hua; Jin, Zhen; Alonso, David

    2010-01-01

    We develop stochastic spatial epidemic models with the competition of two pathogenic strains. The dynamics resulting from different approaches are examined using both non-spatial and spatially explicit models. Our results show that pair approximation, well-mixed ordinary differential equations (ODEs), Gillespie-algorithm-based simulations and spatially explicit models give similar qualitative results. In particular, the temporal evolution of the spatial model can be successfully approximated by pair equations. Simulation results obtained from the spatially explicit model show that, first, mutation plays a major role in multi-strain coexistence, second, mild virulence remarkably decreases the coexistence domain of the parameter space and, third, large-scale self-organized spatial patterns emerge for a wide range of transmission and virulence parameter values, where spatial self-organized clusters reveal a power law behavior within the coexistence domain

  11. Intimate partner violence and preschoolers' explicit memory functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jouriles, Ernest N; Brown, Alan S; McDonald, Renee; Rosenfield, David; Leahy, Matthew M; Silver, Cheryl

    2008-06-01

    This research examines whether parents' intimate partner physical violence (IPV) relates to their preschoolers' explicit memory functioning, whether children's symptoms of hyperarousal mediate this relation, and whether mothers' positive parenting moderates this relation. Participants were 69 mothers and their 4- or 5-year-old child (34 girls). Mothers completed measures of IPV, children's hyperarousal symptoms, parent-child aggression, and positive parenting. Measures of explicit memory functioning were administered to preschoolers. As expected, IPV correlated negatively with preschoolers' performance on explicit memory tasks, even after controlling for parent-child aggression and demographic variables related to preschoolers' memory functioning. Preschoolers' hyperarousal symptoms did not mediate the relation between IPV and explicit memory functioning, but mothers' positive parenting moderated this relation. Specifically, the negative relation between IPV and preschoolers' performance on 2 of the 3 explicit memory tasks was weaker when mothers engaged in higher levels of positive parenting. These findings extend research on IPV and children's adjustment difficulties to explicit memory functioning in preschoolers and suggest that mothers can ameliorate the influence of IPV on preschoolers' memory functioning via their parenting. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

  12. Implicit and explicit memory in survivors of chronic interpersonal violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minshew, Reese; D'Andrea, Wendy

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the relationship of implicit and explicit memory to a range of symptoms in a sample of 27 women with exposure to chronic interpersonal violence (IPV). Participants viewed the first 3 letters ("stems") of trauma-related, general threat, and neutral words; valenced words were matched with neutral words with the same stem. Free recall and a word-stem completion task were used to test explicit and implicit memory, respectively. Participants exhibited increased implicit memory for trauma-related words as compared with both general threat words and neutral "match" words. They also showed increased explicit memory for both general threat and trauma-related words. Finally, although neither implicit nor explicit memory was correlated with PTSD symptoms, implicit memory for trauma-related words was significantly correlated with symptoms associated with ongoing IPV. Interpersonal sensitivity, hostility, and alexithymia were significantly correlated with implicit, but not explicit, memory for trauma words. Somatization, dissociation, and alexithymia were negatively correlated with explicit, but not implicit, memory for general-threat words. These findings suggest that memory processes in survivors of IPV are closely related to the symptom profile associated with complex trauma. Exploring memory processes in survivors of IPV may lend unique insight into the development and maintenance of the symptom profile associated with IPV. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Spatial Contiguity and Incidental Learning in Multimedia Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paek, Seungoh; Hoffman, Daniel L.; Saravanos, Antonios

    2017-01-01

    Drawing on dual-process theories of cognitive function, the degree to which spatial contiguity influences incidental learning outcomes was examined. It was hypothesized that spatial contiguity would mediate what was learned even in the absence of an explicit learning goal. To test this hypothesis, 149 adults completed a multimedia-related task…

  14. Spatial Theography

    OpenAIRE

    van Noppen, Jean Pierre

    1995-01-01

    Descriptive theology («theography») frequently resorts to metaphorical modes of meaning. Among these metaphors, the spatial language of localization and orientation plays an important role to delineate tentative insights into the relationship between the human and the divine. These spatial metaphors are presumably based on the universal human experience of interaction between the body and its environment. It is dangerous, however, to postulate universal agreement on meanings associated with s...

  15. Sleep-effects on implicit and explicit memory in repeated visual search.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, Thomas; Mueller, Hermann J; Assumpcao, Leonardo; Gais, Steffen

    2013-01-01

    In repeated visual search tasks, facilitation of reaction times (RTs) due to repetition of the spatial arrangement of items occurs independently of RT facilitation due to improvements in general task performance. Whereas the latter represents typical procedural learning, the former is a kind of implicit memory that depends on the medial temporal lobe (MTL) memory system and is impaired in patients with amnesia. A third type of memory that develops during visual search is the observers' explicit knowledge of repeated displays. Here, we used a visual search task to investigate whether procedural memory, implicit contextual cueing, and explicit knowledge of repeated configurations, which all arise independently from the same set of stimuli, are influenced by sleep. Observers participated in two experimental sessions, separated by either a nap or a controlled rest period. In each of the two sessions, they performed a visual search task in combination with an explicit recognition task. We found that (1) across sessions, MTL-independent procedural learning was more pronounced for the nap than rest group. This confirms earlier findings, albeit from different motor and perceptual tasks, showing that procedural memory can benefit from sleep. (2) Likewise, the sleep group compared with the rest group showed enhanced context-dependent configural learning in the second session. This is a novel finding, indicating that the MTL-dependent, implicit memory underlying contextual cueing is also sleep-dependent. (3) By contrast, sleep and wake groups displayed equivalent improvements in explicit recognition memory in the second session. Overall, the current study shows that sleep affects MTL-dependent as well as MTL-independent memory, but it affects different, albeit simultaneously acquired, forms of MTL-dependent memory differentially.

  16. Solutions of the Taylor-Green Vortex Problem Using High-Resolution Explicit Finite Difference Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBonis, James R.

    2013-01-01

    A computational fluid dynamics code that solves the compressible Navier-Stokes equations was applied to the Taylor-Green vortex problem to examine the code s ability to accurately simulate the vortex decay and subsequent turbulence. The code, WRLES (Wave Resolving Large-Eddy Simulation), uses explicit central-differencing to compute the spatial derivatives and explicit Low Dispersion Runge-Kutta methods for the temporal discretization. The flow was first studied and characterized using Bogey & Bailley s 13-point dispersion relation preserving (DRP) scheme. The kinetic energy dissipation rate, computed both directly and from the enstrophy field, vorticity contours, and the energy spectra are examined. Results are in excellent agreement with a reference solution obtained using a spectral method and provide insight into computations of turbulent flows. In addition the following studies were performed: a comparison of 4th-, 8th-, 12th- and DRP spatial differencing schemes, the effect of the solution filtering on the results, the effect of large-eddy simulation sub-grid scale models, and the effect of high-order discretization of the viscous terms.

  17. Location Aggregation of Spatial Population CTMC Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Bortolussi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we focus on spatial Markov population models, describing the stochastic evolution of populations of agents, explicitly modelling their spatial distribution, representing space as a discrete, finite graph. More specifically, we present a heuristic approach to aggregating spatial locations, which is designed to preserve the dynamical behaviour of the model whilst reducing the computational cost of analysis. Our approach combines stochastic approximation ideas (moment closure, linear noise, with computational statistics (spectral clustering to obtain an efficient aggregation, which is experimentally shown to be reasonably accurate on two case studies: an instance of epidemic spreading and a London bike sharing scenario.

  18. Zoos through the lens of the IUCN Red List: a global metapopulation approach to support conservation breeding programs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conde, Dalia Amor; Colchero, Fernando; Pearce-Kelly, Paul

    2013-01-01

    and other institutions, alongside the development of international agreements that facilitate cross-border movement of zoo animals. To maximize the effectiveness of integrated conservation actions that include CBPs, it is fundamental that the non-zoo conservation community acknowledges and integrates......Given current extinction trends, the number of species requiring conservation breeding programs (CBPs) is likely to increase dramatically. To inform CBP policies for threatened terrestrial vertebrates, we evaluated the number and representation of threatened vertebrate species on the IUCN Red List...... that may require CBPs is currently low and the spatial distribution of these zoo populations makes management difficult. Although the zoo community may have the will and the logistical potential to contribute to conservation actions, including CBPs, to do so will require greater collaboration between zoos...

  19. SNP design from 454 sequencing of Podosphaera plantaginis transcriptome reveals a genetically diverse pathogen metapopulation with high levels of mixed-genotype infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Tollenaere

    Full Text Available Molecular tools may greatly improve our understanding of pathogen evolution and epidemiology but technical constraints have hindered the development of genetic resources for parasites compared to free-living organisms. This study aims at developing molecular tools for Podosphaera plantaginis, an obligate fungal pathogen of Plantago lanceolata. This interaction has been intensively studied in the Åland archipelago of Finland with epidemiological data collected from over 4,000 host populations annually since year 2001.A cDNA library of a pooled sample of fungal conidia was sequenced on the 454 GS-FLX platform. Over 549,411 reads were obtained and annotated into 45,245 contigs. Annotation data was acquired for 65.2% of the assembled sequences. The transcriptome assembly was screened for SNP loci, as well as for functionally important genes (mating-type genes and potential effector proteins. A genotyping assay of 27 SNP loci was designed and tested on 380 infected leaf samples from 80 populations within the Åland archipelago. With this panel we identified 85 multilocus genotypes (MLG with uneven frequencies across the pathogen metapopulation. Approximately half of the sampled populations contain polymorphism. Our genotyping protocol revealed mixed-genotype infection within a single host leaf to be common. Mixed infection has been proposed as one of the main drivers of pathogen evolution, and hence may be an important process in this pathosystem.The developed SNP panel offers exciting research perspectives for future studies in this well-characterized pathosystem. Also, the transcriptome provides an invaluable novel genomic resource for powdery mildews, which cause significant yield losses on commercially important crops annually. Furthermore, the features that render genetic studies in this system a challenge are shared with the majority of obligate parasitic species, and hence our results provide methodological insights from SNP calling to field

  20. Genetic Differentiation, Isolation-by-Distance, and Metapopulation Dynamics of the Arizona Treefrog (Hyla wrightorum in an Isolated Portion of Its Range.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meryl C Mims

    Full Text Available Population attributes such as diversity, connectivity, and structure are important components of understanding species persistence and vulnerability to extinction. Hyla wrightorum, the Arizona treefrog, is native to the southwestern United States and Mexico, and an isolated group of populations exists in the Huachuca Mountains and Canelo Hills (HMCH of southeastern Arizona, USA. Due to concerns about declining observations of the species within the isolated HMCH portion of its range, the HMCH group is currently a candidate for federal protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We present results of a genetic study examining population diversity, structure, and connectivity within the HMCH region. We sampled DNA from H. wrightorum larvae and adults from ten distinct locations, 8 of which were breeding sites and 4 of which were previously undescribed localities for the species. We developed and genotyped 17 polymorphic microsatellite loci and quantified genetic diversity, population differentiation, and landscape influences on population genetic structure. We found evidence of larger than expected effective population sizes, significant genetic differentiation between populations, and evidence of distance being the primary driver of genetic structure of populations with some influence of slope and canopy cover. We found little evidence of recent genetic bottlenecks, and individual-based analyses indicate admixture between populations despite significant genetic differentiation. These patterns may indicate that the breeding sites within the Huachuca Mountains constitute a metapopulation. We suggest that the HMCH region may contain larger and more connected breeding populations than previously understood, but the dynamics of this system and the limited geographic extent of the HMCH group justify current concern for the persistence of the species in this region. Efforts to ensure availability of high-quality breeding habitats and control for

  1. Explicit solution of Calderon preconditioned time domain integral equations

    KAUST Repository

    Ulku, Huseyin Arda

    2013-07-01

    An explicit marching on-in-time (MOT) scheme for solving Calderon-preconditioned time domain integral equations is proposed. The scheme uses Rao-Wilton-Glisson and Buffa-Christiansen functions to discretize the domain and range of the integral operators and a PE(CE)m type linear multistep to march on in time. Unlike its implicit counterpart, the proposed explicit solver requires the solution of an MOT system with a Gram matrix that is sparse and well-conditioned independent of the time step size. Numerical results demonstrate that the explicit solver maintains its accuracy and stability even when the time step size is chosen as large as that typically used by an implicit solver. © 2013 IEEE.

  2. Making context explicit for explanation and incremental knowledge acquisition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brezillon, P. [Univ. Paris (France)

    1996-12-31

    Intelligent systems may be improved by making context explicit in problem solving. This is a lesson drawn from a study of the reasons why a number of knowledge-based systems (KBSs) failed. We discuss the interest to make context explicit in explanation generation and incremental knowledge acquisition, two important aspects of intelligent systems that aim to cooperate with users. We show how context can be used to better explain and incrementally acquire knowledge. The advantages of using context in explanation and incremental knowledge acquisition are discussed through SEPIT, an expert system for supporting diagnosis and explanation through simulation of power plants. We point out how the limitations of such systems may be overcome by making context explicit.

  3. The time course of explicit and implicit categorization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J David; Zakrzewski, Alexandria C; Herberger, Eric R; Boomer, Joseph; Roeder, Jessica L; Ashby, F Gregory; Church, Barbara A

    2015-10-01

    Contemporary theory in cognitive neuroscience distinguishes, among the processes and utilities that serve categorization, explicit and implicit systems of category learning that learn, respectively, category rules by active hypothesis testing or adaptive behaviors by association and reinforcement. Little is known about the time course of categorization within these systems. Accordingly, the present experiments contrasted tasks that fostered explicit categorization (because they had a one-dimensional, rule-based solution) or implicit categorization (because they had a two-dimensional, information-integration solution). In Experiment 1, participants learned categories under unspeeded or speeded conditions. In Experiment 2, they applied previously trained category knowledge under unspeeded or speeded conditions. Speeded conditions selectively impaired implicit category learning and implicit mature categorization. These results illuminate the processing dynamics of explicit/implicit categorization.

  4. Explicit Solutions for One-Dimensional Mean-Field Games

    KAUST Repository

    Prazeres, Mariana

    2017-04-05

    In this thesis, we consider stationary one-dimensional mean-field games (MFGs) with or without congestion. Our aim is to understand the qualitative features of these games through the analysis of explicit solutions. We are particularly interested in MFGs with a nonmonotonic behavior, which corresponds to situations where agents tend to aggregate. First, we derive the MFG equations from control theory. Then, we compute explicit solutions using the current formulation and examine their behavior. Finally, we represent the solutions and analyze the results. This thesis main contributions are the following: First, we develop the current method to solve MFG explicitly. Second, we analyze in detail non-monotonic MFGs and discover new phenomena: non-uniqueness, discontinuous solutions, empty regions and unhappiness traps. Finally, we address several regularization procedures and examine the stability of MFGs.

  5. Hybrid fur rendering: combining volumetric fur with explicit hair strands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Tobias Grønbeck; Falster, Viggo; Frisvad, Jeppe Revall

    2016-01-01

    Hair is typically modeled and rendered using either explicitly defined hair strand geometry or a volume texture of hair densities. Taken each on their own, these two hair representations have difficulties in the case of animal fur as it consists of very dense and thin undercoat hairs in combination...... with coarse guard hairs. Explicit hair strand geometry is not well-suited for the undercoat hairs, while volume textures are not well-suited for the guard hairs. To efficiently model and render both guard hairs and undercoat hairs, we present a hybrid technique that combines rasterization of explicitly...... defined guard hairs with ray marching of a prismatic shell volume with dynamic resolution. The latter is the key to practical combination of the two techniques, and it also enables a high degree of detail in the undercoat. We demonstrate that our hybrid technique creates a more detailed and soft fur...

  6. Spatial networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthélemy, Marc

    2011-02-01

    Complex systems are very often organized under the form of networks where nodes and edges are embedded in space. Transportation and mobility networks, Internet, mobile phone networks, power grids, social and contact networks, and neural networks, are all examples where space is relevant and where topology alone does not contain all the information. Characterizing and understanding the structure and the evolution of spatial networks is thus crucial for many different fields, ranging from urbanism to epidemiology. An important consequence of space on networks is that there is a cost associated with the length of edges which in turn has dramatic effects on the topological structure of these networks. We will thoroughly explain the current state of our understanding of how the spatial constraints affect the structure and properties of these networks. We will review the most recent empirical observations and the most important models of spatial networks. We will also discuss various processes which take place on these spatial networks, such as phase transitions, random walks, synchronization, navigation, resilience, and disease spread.

  7. Spatial interpolation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.

    1991-01-01

    The theory and practical application of techniques of statistical interpolation are studied in this thesis, and new developments in multivariate spatial interpolation and the design of sampling plans are discussed. Several applications to studies in soil science are

  8. An Explicit Consistent Geometric Stiffness Matrix for the DKT Element

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliseu Lucena Neto

    Full Text Available Abstract A large number of references dealing with the geometric stiffness matrix of the DKT finite element exist in the literature, where nearly all of them adopt an inconsistent form. While such a matrix may be part of the element to treat nonlinear problems in general, it is of crucial importance for linearized buckling analysis. The present work seems to be the first to obtain an explicit expression for this matrix in a consistent way. Numerical results on linear buckling of plates assess the element performance either with the proposed explicit consistent matrix, or with the most commonly used inconsistent matrix.

  9. Coupled heat conduction and thermal stress formulation using explicit integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchertas, A.H.; Kulak, R.F.

    1982-06-01

    The formulation needed for the conductance of heat by means of explicit integration is presented. The implementation of these expressions into a transient structural code, which is also based on explicit temporal integration, is described. Comparisons of theoretical results with code predictions are given both for one-dimensional and two-dimensional problems. The coupled thermal and structural solution of a concrete crucible, when subjected to a sudden temperature increase, shows the history of cracking. The extent of cracking is compared with experimental data

  10. Memory Efficient Data Structures for Explicit Verification of Timed Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taankvist, Jakob Haahr; Srba, Jiri; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2014-01-01

    Timed analysis of real-time systems can be performed using continuous (symbolic) or discrete (explicit) techniques. The explicit state-space exploration can be considerably faster for models with moderately small constants, however, at the expense of high memory consumption. In the setting of timed......-arc Petri nets, we explore new data structures for lowering the used memory: PTries for efficient storing of configurations and time darts for semi-symbolic description of the state-space. Both methods are implemented as a part of the tool TAPAAL and the experiments document at least one order of magnitude...... of memory savings while preserving comparable verification times....

  11. THE ESSENCE OF QUESTIONING AND EXPLICIT READING INSTRUCTION STRATEGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sa’dulloh Muzammil

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Teacher’s questioning may function to assist students comprehend more reading materials and to enable them to be proficient readers. Yet, the students may be less benefited from which if the teacher neither provides sufficient explicit reading strategy nor involves higher-level questions. Consequently, the teacher should pay more careful attentions as follows: 1 teacher should involve both lower- and high-lever questions; 2 teacher should provide students with explicit reading strategy; 3 teacher should be aware of the activities in reading phases: pre-, during-, and post-reading.

  12. Labelled Lambda-calculi with Explicit Copy and Erase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maribel Fernández

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available We present two rewriting systems that define labelled explicit substitution lambda-calculi. Our work is motivated by the close correspondence between Levy's labelled lambda-calculus and paths in proof-nets, which played an important role in the understanding of the Geometry of Interaction. The structure of the labels in Levy's labelled lambda-calculus relates to the multiplicative information of paths; the novelty of our work is that we design labelled explicit substitution calculi that also keep track of exponential information present in call-by-value and call-by-name translations of the lambda-calculus into linear logic proof-nets.

  13. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundstrom, Shana M.; Eason, Tarsha; Nelson, R. John; Angeler, David G.; Barichievy, Chris; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Graham, Nicholas A.J.; Granholm, Dean; Gunderson, Lance; Knutson, Melinda; Nash, Kirsty L.; Spanbauer, Trisha; Stow, Craig A.; Allen, Craig R.

    2017-01-01

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

  14. Spatial distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borregaard, Michael Krabbe; Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine; Nachman, Gøsta Støger

    2008-01-01

    , depending on the nature of intraspecific interactions between them: while the individuals of some species repel each other and partition the available area, others form groups of varying size, determined by the fitness of each group member. The spatial distribution pattern of individuals again strongly......Living organisms are distributed over the entire surface of the planet. The distribution of the individuals of each species is not random; on the contrary, they are strongly dependent on the biology and ecology of the species, and vary over different spatial scale. The structure of whole...... populations reflects the location and fragmentation pattern of the habitat types preferred by the species, and the complex dynamics of migration, colonization, and population growth taking place over the landscape. Within these, individuals are distributed among each other in regular or clumped patterns...

  15. Spatial Culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reeh, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Spatial Culture – A Humanities Perspective Abstract of introductory essay by Henrik Reeh Secured by alliances between socio-political development and cultural practices, a new field of humanistic studies in spatial culture has developed since the 1990s. To focus on links between urban culture...... and modern society is, however, an intellectual practice which has a much longer history. Already in the 1980s, the debate on the modern and the postmodern cited Paris and Los Angeles as spatio-cultural illustrations of these major philosophical concepts. Earlier, in the history of critical studies, the work...... Foucault considered a constitutive feature of 20th-century thinking and one that continues to occupy intellectual and cultural debates in the third millennium. A conceptual framework is, nevertheless, necessary, if the humanities are to adequa-tely address city and space – themes that have long been...

  16. Implicit and Explicit Learning in Individuals with Agrammatic Aphasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuchard, Julia; Thompson, Cynthia K.

    2014-01-01

    Implicit learning is a process of acquiring knowledge that occurs without conscious awareness of learning, whereas explicit learning involves the use of overt strategies. To date, research related to implicit learning following stroke has been largely restricted to the motor domain and has rarely addressed implications for language. The present…

  17. Explicit and spontaneous retrieval of emotional scenes: Electrophysiological correlates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weymar, Mathias; Bradley, Margaret M.; El-Hinnawi, Nasryn; Lang, Peter J.

    2014-01-01

    When event-related potentials are measured during a recognition task, items that have previously been presented typically elicit a larger late (400–800 ms) positive potential than new items. Recent data, however, suggest that emotional, but not neutral, pictures show ERP evidence of spontaneous retrieval when presented in a free-viewing task (Ferrari, Bradley, Codispoti & Lang, 2012). In two experiments, we further investigated the brain dynamics of implicit and explicit retrieval. In Experiment 1, brain potentials were measured during a semantic categorization task, which did not explicitly probe episodic memory, but which, like a recognition task, required an active decision and a button press, and were compared to those elicited during recognition and free viewing. Explicit recognition prompted a late enhanced positivity for previously presented, compared to new, pictures regardless of hedonic content. In contrast, only emotional pictures showed an old-new difference when the task did not explicitly probe episodic memory, either when either making an active categorization decision regarding picture content, or when simply viewing pictures. In Experiment 2, however, neutral pictures did prompt a significant old-new ERP difference during subsequent free viewing when emotionally arousing pictures were not included in the encoding set. These data suggest that spontaneous retrieval is heightened for salient cues, perhaps reflecting heightened attention and elaborative processing at encoding. PMID:23795588

  18. Explicit solution of Calderon preconditioned time domain integral equations

    KAUST Repository

    Ulku, Huseyin Arda; Bagci, Hakan; Michielssen, Eric

    2013-01-01

    operators and a PE(CE)m type linear multistep to march on in time. Unlike its implicit counterpart, the proposed explicit solver requires the solution of an MOT system with a Gram matrix that is sparse and well-conditioned independent of the time step size

  19. An explicit multi-time-stepping algorithm for aerodynamic flows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niemann-Tuitman, B.E.; Veldman, A.E.P.

    1997-01-01

    An explicit multi-time-stepping algorithm with applications to aerodynamic flows is presented. In the algorithm, in different parts of the computational domain different time steps are taken, and the flow is synchronized at the so-called synchronization levels. The algorithm is validated for

  20. Epistemic logic and explicit knowledge in distributed programming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witzel, A.; Zvesper, J.A.; Padgham, L.; Parkes, D.; Müller, J.; Parsons, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we propose an explicit form of knowledge-based programming. Our initial motivation is the distributed implementation of game-theoretical algorithms, but we abstract away from the game-theoretical details and describe a general scenario, where a group of agents each have some initially

  1. Implicit and explicit cognitions related to alcohol use in children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieters, S.; Vorst, H.; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Wiers, R.W.

    2010-01-01

    Research has indicated that implicit and explicit alcohol-related cognitions jointly predict alcohol use in adolescents and adults. Only few studies assessed these cognitions in children. Associations between alcohol cognitions and alcohol use were tested in two studies with 10 year olds (Study 1; N

  2. Implicit and explicit: cognitions related to alcohol use in children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieters, S.; Vorst, H. van der; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Wiers, R.W.H.J.

    2010-01-01

    Research has indicated that implicit and explicit alcohol-related cognitions jointly predict alcohol use in adolescents and adults. Only few studies assessed these cognitions in children. Associations between alcohol cognitions and alcohol use were tested in two studies with 10 year olds (Study 1: N

  3. Efficient explicit formulation for practical fuzzy structural analysis

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents a practical approach based on High Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) for analysing the response of structures with fuzzy parameters. The proposed methodology involves integrated finite element modelling, HDMR based response surface generation, and explicit fuzzy analysis procedures.

  4. Near-Optimal and Explicit Bell Inequality Violations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buhrman, H.; Regev, O.; Scarpa, G.; de Wolf, R.

    2011-01-01

    Bell inequality violations correspond to behavior of entangled quantum systems that cannot be simulated classically. We give two new two-player games with Bell inequality violations that are stronger, fully explicit, and arguably simpler than earlier work.The first game is based on the Hidden

  5. Dissociating explicit and implicit effects of cross-media advertising

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandeberg, L.; Murre, J.M.J.; Voorveld, H.A.M.; Smit, E.G.

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of cross-media advertising effects is mainly based on explicit psychological measures, such as self-reports. To fully understand the mechanisms responsible for the success of cross-media advertising, it is important to also use implicit measures. We used both types of measures to assess

  6. The Role of Explicit Need Strength for Emotions during Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flunger, Barbara; Pretsch, Johanna; Schmitt, Manfred; Ludwig, Peter

    2013-01-01

    According to self-determination theory, the satisfaction of the basic needs for autonomy, competence, and relatedness influences achievement emotions and situational interest. The present study investigated whether domain-specific explicit need strength moderated the impact of need satisfaction/dissatisfaction on the outcomes achievement emotions…

  7. Explicit grammar teaching in EAL classrooms: Suggestions from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of the subject English Additional Language (EAL) to serve as a strong support subject in explicitly teaching learners the grammar of English is suggested as an interim solution to the effects of the non-implementation of the 1997 South African Language in Education Policy. To identify specific grammatical ...

  8. Modelling conflict management in design: an explicit approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brazier, F.M.; van Langen, P.H.G.; Treur, J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper focusses on how conflicts that arise during a design process and the management of conflicts can be modelled. A number of possible conflict types are distinguished and it is described how each of them can be detected during the design process, using an explicit meta-representation.

  9. Are Explicit Apologies Proportional to the Offenses They Address?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heritage, John; Raymond, Chase Wesley

    2016-01-01

    We consider here Goffman's proposal of proportionality between virtual offenses and remedial actions, based on the examination of 102 cases of explicit apologies. To this end, we offer a typology of the primary apology formats within the dataset, together with a broad categorization of the types of virtual offenses to which these apologies are…

  10. Explicit expression for effective moment of inertia of RC beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.A. Patel

    Full Text Available AbstractDeflection is an important design parameter for structures subjected to service load. This paper provides an explicit expression for effective moment of inertia considering cracking, for uniformly distributed loaded reinforced concrete (RC beams. The proposed explicit expression can be used for rapid prediction of short-term deflection at service load. The explicit expression has been obtained from the trained neural network considering concrete cracking, tension stiffening and entire practical range of reinforcement. Three significant structural parameters have been identified that govern the change in effective moment of inertia and therefore deflection. These three parameters are chosen as inputs to train neural network. The training data sets for neural network are generated using finite element software ABAQUS. The explicit expression has been validated for a number of simply supported and continuous beams and it is shown that the predicted deflections have reasonable accuracy for practical purpose. A sensitivity analysis has been performed, which indicates substantial dependence of effective moment of inertia on the selected input parameters.

  11. Explicit versus Implicit Social Cognition Testing in Autism Spectrum Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callenmark, Björn; Kjellin, Lars; Rönnqvist, Louise; Bölte, Sven

    2014-01-01

    Although autism spectrum disorder is defined by reciprocal social-communication impairments, several studies have found no evidence for altered social cognition test performance. This study examined explicit (i.e. prompted) and implicit (i.e. spontaneous) variants of social cognition testing in autism spectrum disorder. A sample of 19 adolescents…

  12. Modeling single versus multiple systems in implicit and explicit memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starns, Jeffrey J; Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

    2012-04-01

    It is currently controversial whether priming on implicit tasks and discrimination on explicit recognition tests are supported by a single memory system or by multiple, independent systems. In a Psychological Review article, Berry and colleagues used mathematical modeling to address this question and provide compelling evidence against the independent-systems approach. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Implicit and Explicit Measurements of Affective Responses to Food Odors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, Wei; Wijk, de R.A.; Graaf, de C.; Boesveldt, S.

    2016-01-01

    One of the main functions of olfaction is to activate approach/avoidance behavior, toward or away from people, foods, or other odor sources. These behaviors are partly automated and therefore poorly accessible via introspection. Explicit tests need therefore be complemented by implicit tests to

  14. Euphemism vs explicitness: A corpus-based analysis of translated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines the governing initial norms, namely explicitness and euphemism in English source texts and Ndebele translations, focusing on how these norms influenced the strategies chosen by the Ndebele translators in the translation of taboo terms. In the article, a corpus-based approach is used to identify head ...

  15. Explicit integration of extremely stiff reaction networks: partial equilibrium methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guidry, M W; Hix, W R; Billings, J J

    2013-01-01

    In two preceding papers (Guidry et al 2013 Comput. Sci. Disc. 6 015001 and Guidry and Harris 2013 Comput. Sci. Disc. 6 015002), we have shown that when reaction networks are well removed from equilibrium, explicit asymptotic and quasi-steady-state approximations can give algebraically stabilized integration schemes that rival standard implicit methods in accuracy and speed for extremely stiff systems. However, we also showed that these explicit methods remain accurate but are no longer competitive in speed as the network approaches equilibrium. In this paper, we analyze this failure and show that it is associated with the presence of fast equilibration timescales that neither asymptotic nor quasi-steady-state approximations are able to remove efficiently from the numerical integration. Based on this understanding, we develop a partial equilibrium method to deal effectively with the approach to equilibrium and show that explicit asymptotic methods, combined with the new partial equilibrium methods, give an integration scheme that can plausibly deal with the stiffest networks, even in the approach to equilibrium, with accuracy and speed competitive with that of implicit methods. Thus we demonstrate that such explicit methods may offer alternatives to implicit integration of even extremely stiff systems and that these methods may permit integration of much larger networks than have been possible before in a number of fields. (paper)

  16. Explicit and implicit attitude toward an emerging food technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekker, Gerben A.; Fischer, Arnout R.H.; Tobi, Hilde; Trijp, van Hans C.M.

    2017-01-01

    Cultured meat is an unfamiliar emerging food technology that could provide a near endless supply of high quality protein with a relatively small ecological footprint. To understand consumer acceptance of cultured meat, this study investigated the influence of information provision on the explicit

  17. Explicit- and Implicit Bullying Attitudes in Relation to Bullying Behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goethem, A.A.J. van; Scholte, R.H.J.; Wiers, R.W.H.J.

    2010-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to examine whether an assessment of implicit bullying attitudes could add to the prediction of bullying behavior after controlling for explicit bullying attitudes. Primary school children (112 boys and 125 girls, M age = 11 years, 5 months) completed two newly

  18. Explicit- and implicit bullying attitudes in relation to bullying behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Goethem, A.A.J.; Scholte, R.H.J.; Wiers, R.W.

    2010-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to examine whether an assessment of implicit bullying attitudes could add to the prediction of bullying behavior after controlling for explicit bullying attitudes. Primary school children (112 boys and 125 girls, M age = 11 years, 5 months) completed two newly

  19. Making the Tacit Explicit: Children's Strategies for Classroom Writing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silby, Alison; Watts, Mike

    2015-01-01

    A key highlight of this study is generating evidence of children "making aware the unaware", making tacit knowledge explicit. The research explores the levels of awareness in thinking used by eight 7-8 year-old children when engaged in school-based genre writing tasks. The focus is on analysing children's awareness of their thought…

  20. Explicit teaching of grammar and improvement in the grammar of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Explicit teaching of grammar and improvement in the grammar of student writing. J Parkinson. Abstract. No Abstract. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. Article Metrics. Metrics Loading ... Metrics powered by PLOS ALM

  1. Explicit versus implicit social cognition testing in autism spectrum disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callenmark, Björn; Kjellin, Lars; Rönnqvist, Louise; Bölte, Sven

    2014-08-01

    Although autism spectrum disorder is defined by reciprocal social-communication impairments, several studies have found no evidence for altered social cognition test performance. This study examined explicit (i.e. prompted) and implicit (i.e. spontaneous) variants of social cognition testing in autism spectrum disorder. A sample of 19 adolescents with autism spectrum disorder and 19 carefully matched typically developing controls completed the Dewey Story Test. 'Explicit' (multiple-choice answering format) and 'implicit' (free interview) measures of social cognition were obtained. Autism spectrum disorder participants did not differ from controls regarding explicit social cognition performance. However, the autism spectrum disorder group performed more poorly than controls on implicit social cognition performance in terms of spontaneous perspective taking and social awareness. Findings suggest that social cognition alterations in autism spectrum disorder are primarily implicit in nature and that an apparent absence of social cognition difficulties on certain tests using rather explicit testing formats does not necessarily mean social cognition typicality in autism spectrum disorder. © The Author(s) 2013.

  2. Implicit and Explicit Learning Mechanisms Meet in Monkey Prefrontal Cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chafee, Matthew V; Crowe, David A

    2017-10-11

    In this issue, Loonis et al. (2017) provide the first description of unique synchrony patterns differentiating implicit and explicit forms of learning in monkey prefrontal networks. Their results have broad implications for how prefrontal networks integrate the two learning mechanisms to control behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Implicit and explicit self-esteem in remitted depressed patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smeijers, D.; Vrijsen, J.N.; Oostrom, I.I. van; Isaac, L.; Speckens, A.E.M.; Becker, E.S.; Rinck, M.

    2017-01-01

    Background and objectives: Low self-esteem is a symptom of depression and depression vulnerability. Prior research on self-esteem has largely focused on implicit (ISE) and explicit self-esteem (ESE) as two separate constructs, missing their interaction. Therefore, the current study investigated the

  4. Making the Implicit Explicit: Supporting Teachers to Bridge Cultures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothstein-Fisch, Carrie; Trumbull, Elise; Garcia, Sandra Gloria

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we report the results of a longitudinal action research project in which elementary teachers used a cultural framework (individualism-collectivism) to understand differences between the culture of immigrant Latino families and the culture of U.S. schools. Making explicit the culture-based beliefs implicit in home and school…

  5. The explicit and implicit dance in psychoanalytic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosshage, James L

    2004-02-01

    How the implicit/non-declarative and explicit/declarative cognitive domains interact is centrally important in the consideration of effecting change within the psychoanalytic arena. Stern et al. (1998) declare that long-lasting change occurs in the domain of implicit relational knowledge. In the view of this author, the implicit and explicit domains are intricately intertwined in an interactive dance within a psychoanalytic process. The author views that a spirit of inquiry (Lichtenberg, Lachmann & Fosshage 2002) serves as the foundation of the psychoanalytic process. Analyst and patient strive to explore, understand and communicate and, thereby, create a 'spirit' of interaction that contributes, through gradual incremental learning, to new implicit relational knowledge. This spirit, as part of the implicit relational interaction, is a cornerstone of the analytic relationship. The 'inquiry' more directly brings explicit/declarative processing to the foreground in the joint attempt to explore and understand. The spirit of inquiry in the psychoanalytic arena highlights both the autobiographical scenarios of the explicit memory system and the mental models of the implicit memory system as each contributes to a sense of self, other, and self with other. This process facilitates the extrication and suspension of the old models, so that new models based on current relational experience can be gradually integrated into both memory systems for lasting change.

  6. Light Higgs boson in THDM with explicit CP violation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhmetzyanova, Eh.N.; Dolgopolov, M.V.; Smirnov, I.A.; Dubinin, M.N.

    2005-01-01

    The effective Lagrangian of the two-doublet Higgs sector with complex parameters is considered in the case of Minimal Supersymmetric Model with explicit CP violation. Light Higgs boson decay widths are calculated for the scenario with maximal mixing of CP even and CP odd states [ru

  7. Continuous Flattening of a Regular Tetrahedron with Explicit Mappings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-ichi Itoh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We proved in [10] that each Platonic polyhedron P can be folded into a flat multilayered face of P by a continuous folding process of polyhedra. In this paper, we give explicit formulas of continuous functions for such a continuous flattening process in R³ for a regular tetrahedron.The article is published in the author’s wording.

  8. Explicit formulae for the generalized Hermite polynomials in superspace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desrosiers, Patrick; Lapointe, Luc; Mathieu, Pierre

    2004-01-01

    We provide explicit formulae for the orthogonal eigenfunctions of the supersymmetric extension of the rational Calogero-Moser-Sutherland model with harmonic confinement, i.e., the generalized Hermite (or Hi-Jack) polynomials in superspace. The construction relies on the triangular action of the Hamiltonian on the supermonomial basis. This translates into determinantal expressions for the Hamiltonian's eigenfunctions

  9. Explicit presentation of the Colebrook's friction factor equation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Two explicit and very accurate equations for calculating the friction factor of pipes over the entire range of relative roughness and Reynold's Number covered by the Colebrook's Equation have been developed. A rectangular array of relative Roughness and Reynold's Number was used to test the accuracy of the new ...

  10. The Role of Explicit and Impelicit Memory in Stutteres

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golavizh Karimi-Javan

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Stuttering is one of the most common speech disorders. However, its etiology is poorly understood, and is likely to be heterogeneous. Impairment of cognitive functions such as emotional memory and attention is one of the important factors. The aim of this research is to compare explicit and implicit memory between stutterers and normal individuals and also comparison of anxiety and depression between 2 groups. Materials & Methods: This is a case-control and analytical research.The participated individuals in this research were 30 male and female stutterers and the same number as the matched control group. The control group was matched for gender, age, education and bilingualism. The cue recall task performed to investigate explicit memory and the word stem completing task for implicit memory. The anxiety and depression of the individuals were measured by using general Hygiene Questionnaire (GHQ28 in this study. The performance of the individuals was measured based on positive and negative words in explicit and implicit memory and was compared with anxiety and depression score they obtained. Data was analyzed by using independent T-test, paired T-test, U-Man Witney and Willkaxon test. Results: The data indicated that stutterers recognized less emotionally positive words in explicit memory as compared with nonstutterers. Also, stutterers recognized more emotionally negative words as compared with emotionally positive words in explicit and implicit memory tasks (P<0/05. Additionally, stutterers showed more anxiety and depression as compared to nonstutterers. This difference was significant except for depression (P0.05. Conclusion: Taking into consideration the role of cognitive functions including emotional memory in motor speech programming and the difference in the function of positive versus negative emotional memories between stutterers and nonstutterers in this research, the role of emotional memory can be considered as an important

  11. A novel explicit approach to model bromide and pesticide transport in soils containing macropores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, J.; Zehe, E.

    2011-01-01

    The present study tests whether an explicit treatment of worm burrows is feasible for simulating water flow, bromide and pesticide transport in structured heterogeneous soils. The essence is to represent worm burrows as morphologically connected paths of low flow resistance in the spatially highly resolved model domain. A recent Monte Carlo study (Klaus and Zehe, 2010) revealed that this approach allowed successful reproduction of tile drain event discharge recorded during an irrigation experiment at a tile drained field site. However, several "hillslope architectures" that were all consistent with the available extensive data base allowed a good reproduction of tile drain flow response. Our second objective was thus to find out whether this "equifinality" in spatial model setups may be reduced when including bromide tracer data in the model falsification process. We thus simulated transport of bromide and Isoproturon (IPU) for the 13 spatial model setups, which performed best with respect to reproduce tile drain event discharge, without any further calibration. All model setups allowed a very good prediction of the temporal dynamics of cumulated bromide leaching into the tile drain, while only four of them matched the accumulated water balance and accumulated bromide loss into the tile drain. The number of behavioural model architectures could thus be reduced to four. One of those setups was used for simulating transport of IPU, using different parameter combinations to characterise adsorption according to the Footprint data base. Simulations could, however, only reproduce the observed leaching behaviour, when we allowed for retardation coefficients that were very close to one.

  12. MetaPIGA v2.0: maximum likelihood large phylogeny estimation using the metapopulation genetic algorithm and other stochastic heuristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helaers, Raphaël; Milinkovitch, Michel C

    2010-07-15

    The development, in the last decade, of stochastic heuristics implemented in robust application softwares has made large phylogeny inference a key step in most comparative studies involving molecular sequences. Still, the choice of a phylogeny inference software is often dictated by a combination of parameters not related to the raw performance of the implemented algorithm(s) but rather by practical issues such as ergonomics and/or the availability of specific functionalities. Here, we present MetaPIGA v2.0, a robust implementation of several stochastic heuristics for large phylogeny inference (under maximum likelihood), including a Simulated Annealing algorithm, a classical Genetic Algorithm, and the Metapopulation Genetic Algorithm (metaGA) together with complex substitution models, discrete Gamma rate heterogeneity, and the possibility to partition data. MetaPIGA v2.0 also implements the Likelihood Ratio Test, the Akaike Information Criterion, and the Bayesian Information Criterion for automated selection of substitution models that best fit the data. Heuristics and substitution models are highly customizable through manual batch files and command line processing. However, MetaPIGA v2.0 also offers an extensive graphical user interface for parameters setting, generating and running batch files, following run progress, and manipulating result trees. MetaPIGA v2.0 uses standard formats for data sets and trees, is platform independent, runs in 32 and 64-bits systems, and takes advantage of multiprocessor and multicore computers. The metaGA resolves the major problem inherent to classical Genetic Algorithms by maintaining high inter-population variation even under strong intra-population selection. Implementation of the metaGA together with additional stochastic heuristics into a single software will allow rigorous optimization of each heuristic as well as a meaningful comparison of performances among these algorithms. MetaPIGA v2.0 gives access both to high

  13. MetaPIGA v2.0: maximum likelihood large phylogeny estimation using the metapopulation genetic algorithm and other stochastic heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milinkovitch Michel C

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The development, in the last decade, of stochastic heuristics implemented in robust application softwares has made large phylogeny inference a key step in most comparative studies involving molecular sequences. Still, the choice of a phylogeny inference software is often dictated by a combination of parameters not related to the raw performance of the implemented algorithm(s but rather by practical issues such as ergonomics and/or the availability of specific functionalities. Results Here, we present MetaPIGA v2.0, a robust implementation of several stochastic heuristics for large phylogeny inference (under maximum likelihood, including a Simulated Annealing algorithm, a classical Genetic Algorithm, and the Metapopulation Genetic Algorithm (metaGA together with complex substitution models, discrete Gamma rate heterogeneity, and the possibility to partition data. MetaPIGA v2.0 also implements the Likelihood Ratio Test, the Akaike Information Criterion, and the Bayesian Information Criterion for automated selection of substitution models that best fit the data. Heuristics and substitution models are highly customizable through manual batch files and command line processing. However, MetaPIGA v2.0 also offers an extensive graphical user interface for parameters setting, generating and running batch files, following run progress, and manipulating result trees. MetaPIGA v2.0 uses standard formats for data sets and trees, is platform independent, runs in 32 and 64-bits systems, and takes advantage of multiprocessor and multicore computers. Conclusions The metaGA resolves the major problem inherent to classical Genetic Algorithms by maintaining high inter-population variation even under strong intra-population selection. Implementation of the metaGA together with additional stochastic heuristics into a single software will allow rigorous optimization of each heuristic as well as a meaningful comparison of performances among these

  14. Gene flow for Echinococcus granulosus metapopulations determined by mitochondrial sequences: A reliable approach for reflecting epidemiological drift of parasite among neighboring countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahami-Oskouei, Mahmoud; Kaseb-Yazdanparast, Azam; Spotin, Adel; Shahbazi, Abbas; Adibpour, Mohammad; Ahmadpour, Ehsan; Ghabouli-Mehrabani, Nader

    2016-12-01

    In genetic diversity and population structure of Echinococcus granulosus, the gene flow can illustrate how the Echinococcus isolates have epidemiologically drifted among endemic neighboring countries. 51 isolates of hydatid cysts were collected from human, dog, cattle and sheep in northwest Iran, where placed co-border with Turkey. DNA samples were extracted, amplified and subjected to sequence analysis of NADH dehydrogenase subunit 1 (nad1) and cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) genes. As well, sequences of Echinococcus at east to the southeast regions of Turkey were retrieved from GenBank database for the cox1 gene. The confirmed isolates were grouped as G1 (n = 74) and G3 (n = 6) genotypes. 31 unique haplotypes were identified inferred by the analyzed sequences of cox1 among two distinct populations. A parsimonious network of the sequence haplotypes displayed star-like features in the overall population containing TUR1, IR15 and IR22 as the most common haplotypes. According to AMOVA test, the high value of haplotype diversity (0.94758-0.98901) of E. granulosus was reflected the total genetic variability within populations while nucleotide diversity was low (0.00727-0.01046) in Iranian and Turkish metapopulations. Neutrality indices of the cox1 were shown negative values (-15.078 to -10.057) in Echinococcus populations which indicating a significant divergence from neutrality. A pairwise fixation index (Fst) as a degree of gene flow was partially high value for all populations (0.151). The statistically Fst value indicates that E. granulosus sensu stricto (G1-G3) are genetically moderate differentiated among Iranian and Turkish isolates. The occurrence of TUR1 and IR15 elucidate that there is possibly the dawn of domestication due to transfer of alleles between populations through the diffusion of stock raising or anthropogenic movements. To evaluate the hypothetical evolutionary scenario, further exploration is necessitated to analyze isolates from

  15. Phylogeography, genetic variability and structure of Acanthamoeba metapopulations in Iran inferred by 18S ribosomal RNA sequences: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spotin, Adel; Moslemzadeh, Hamid Reza; Mahami-Oskouei, Mahmoud; Ahmadpour, Ehsan; Niyyati, Maryam; Hejazi, Seyed Hossein; Memari, Fatemeh; Noori, Jafar

    2017-09-01

    To verify phylogeography and genetic structure of Acanthamoeba populations among the Iranian clinical isolates and natural/artificial environments distributed in various regions of the country. We searched electronic databases including Medline, PubMed, Science Direct, Scopus and Google Scholar from 2005 to 2016. To explore the genetic variability of Acanthamoeba sp, 205 sequences were retrieved from keratitis patients, immunosuppressed cases and environmental sources as of various geographies of Iran. T4 genotype was the predominant strain in Iran, and the rare genotypes belonged to T2, T3, T5 (Acanthamoeba lenticulata), T6, T9, T11, T13 and T15 (Acanthamoeba jacobsi). A total of 47 unique haplotypes of T4 were identified. A parsimonious network of the sequence haplotypes demonstrated star-like feature containing haplogroups IR6 (34.1%) and IR7 (31.2%) as the most common haplotypes. In accordance with the analysis of molecular variance, the high value of haplotype diversity (0.612-0.848) of Acanthamoeba T4 represented genetic variability within populations. Neutrality indices of the 18S ribosomal RNA demonstrated negative values in all populations which represented a considerable divergence from neutrality. The majority of genetic diversity belonged to the infected contact lens and dust samples in immunodeficiency and ophthalmology wards, which indicated potential routes for exposure to a pathogenic Acanthamoeba sp. in at-risk individuals. A pairwise fixation index (F ST ) was from low to high values (0.02433-0.41892). The statistically F ST points out that T4 is genetically differentiated between north-west, north-south and central-south metapopulations, but not differentiated between west-central, west-south, central-south, and north-central isolates. An occurrence of IR6 and IR7 displays that possibly a gene flow of Acanthamoeba T4 occurred after the founder effect or bottleneck experience through ecological changes or host mobility. This is the first

  16. Gene migration for re-emerging amebiasis in Iran's northwest-Iraq borders: a microevolutionary scale for reflecting epidemiological drift of Entamoeba histolytica metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadzadeh, Asad; Spotin, Adel; Mahami-Oskouei, Mahmoud; Haghighi, Ali; Zebardast, Nozhat; Kohansal, Kobra

    2017-01-01

    In the microevolutionary scales of Entamoeba isolates, the gene migration shows how Entamoeba spp. has epidemiologically drifted among border countries. Five hundred fecal samples were taken from patients suffering gastrointestinal disorders, abdominal pain, and diarrhea at Saggez, northwest Iran located within the border Iraq country. Following parasitological techniques, DNA samples were extracted and amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of 18S rRNA region to identify Entamoeba infections. To distinguish the Entamoeba spp., a multiplex PCR was conducted. Amplicons were sequenced to reconfirm their heterogeneity traits and phylogenetic analysis. Additionally, Entamoeba histolytica sequences of Iraq were retrieved from GenBank database. The suspected isolates were diagnosed as E. histolytica (2.2 %), Entamoeba moshkovskii (1 %), and Entamoeba dispar (0.4 %). Mixed Entamoeba infections did not detect among isolates. A parsimonious network of the sequence haplotypes displayed star-like features in the overall isolates containing E.h1, E.d2, and E.m3 as the most common haplotypes. According to analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) test, high partial value of haplotype diversity (0.700 to 0.800) of E. histolytica was shown the total genetic variability within populations while nucleotide diversity was low among Iranian and Iraqi metapopulations. Neutrality indices of the 18S rRNA were shown negative values in E. histolytica populations which indicating significant deviations from neutrality. A pairwise fixation index (F-statistics [Fst]) as a degree of gene flow had a low value for all populations (0.001) while the number of migrants was 2.48. The statistically Fst value indicates that E. histolytica isolates are not genetically differentiated among shared isolates of Iran and Iraq. Occurrence of E.h1 between two regional populations indicates that there is dawn of Entamoeba flow due to transfer of alleles from one population to another population through

  17. An Efficient Explicit Finite-Difference Scheme for Simulating Coupled Biomass Growth on Nutritive Substrates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. F. Sun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel explicit finite-difference (FD method is presented to simulate the positive and bounded development process of a microbial colony subjected to a substrate of nutrients, which is governed by a nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations (PDE system. Our explicit FD scheme is uniquely designed in such a way that it transfers the nonlinear terms in the original PDE into discrete sets of linear ones in the algebraic equation system that can be solved very efficiently, while ensuring the stability and the boundedness of the solution. This is achieved through (1 a proper design of intertwined FD approximations for the diffusion function term in both time and spatial variations and (2 the control of the time-step through establishing theoretical stability criteria. A detailed theoretical stability analysis is conducted to reveal that our FD method is indeed stable. Our examples verified the fact that the numerical solution can be ensured nonnegative and bounded to simulate the actual physics. Numerical examples have also been presented to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed scheme. The present scheme is applicable for solving similar systems of PDEs in the investigation of the dynamics of biological films.

  18. Spatial occupancy models for large data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Devin S.; Conn, Paul B.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Ray, Justina C.; Pond, Bruce A.

    2013-01-01

    Since its development, occupancy modeling has become a popular and useful tool for ecologists wishing to learn about the dynamics of species occurrence over time and space. Such models require presence–absence data to be collected at spatially indexed survey units. However, only recently have researchers recognized the need to correct for spatially induced overdisperison by explicitly accounting for spatial autocorrelation in occupancy probability. Previous efforts to incorporate such autocorrelation have largely focused on logit-normal formulations for occupancy, with spatial autocorrelation induced by a random effect within a hierarchical modeling framework. Although useful, computational time generally limits such an approach to relatively small data sets, and there are often problems with algorithm instability, yielding unsatisfactory results. Further, recent research has revealed a hidden form of multicollinearity in such applications, which may lead to parameter bias if not explicitly addressed. Combining several techniques, we present a unifying hierarchical spatial occupancy model specification that is particularly effective over large spatial extents. This approach employs a probit mixture framework for occupancy and can easily accommodate a reduced-dimensional spatial process to resolve issues with multicollinearity and spatial confounding while improving algorithm convergence. Using open-source software, we demonstrate this new model specification using a case study involving occupancy of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) over a set of 1080 survey units spanning a large contiguous region (108 000 km2) in northern Ontario, Canada. Overall, the combination of a more efficient specification and open-source software allows for a facile and stable implementation of spatial occupancy models for large data sets.

  19. An efficient explicit marching on in time solver for magnetic field volume integral equation

    KAUST Repository

    Sayed, Sadeed Bin

    2015-07-25

    An efficient explicit marching on in time (MOT) scheme for solving the magnetic field volume integral equation is proposed. The MOT system is cast in the form of an ordinary differential equation and is integrated in time using a PE(CE)m multistep scheme. At each time step, a system with a Gram matrix is solved for the predicted/corrected field expansion coefficients. Depending on the type of spatial testing scheme Gram matrix is sparse or consists of blocks with only diagonal entries regardless of the time step size. Consequently, the resulting MOT scheme is more efficient than its implicit counterparts, which call for inversion of fuller matrix system at lower frequencies. Numerical results, which demonstrate the efficiency, accuracy, and stability of the proposed MOT scheme, are presented.

  20. Predator attack rate evolution in space: the role of ecology mediated by complex emergent spatial structure and self-shading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messinger, Susanna M; Ostling, Annette

    2013-11-01

    Predation interactions are an important element of ecological communities. Population spatial structure has been shown to influence predator evolution, resulting in the evolution of a reduced predator attack rate; however, the evolutionary role of traits governing predator and prey ecology is unknown. The evolutionary effect of spatial structure on a predator's attack rate has primarily been explored assuming a fixed metapopulation spatial structure, and understood in terms of group selection. But endogenously generated, emergent spatial structure is common in nature. Furthermore, the evolutionary influence of ecological traits may be mediated through the spatial self-structuring process. Drawing from theory on pathogens, the evolutionary effect of emergent spatial structure can be understood in terms of self-shading, where a voracious predator limits its long-term invasion potential by reducing local prey availability. Here we formalize the effects of self-shading for predators using spatial moment equations. Then, through simulations, we show that in a spatial context self-shading leads to relationships between predator-prey ecology and the predator's attack rate that are not expected in a non-spatial context. Some relationships are analogous to relationships already shown for host-pathogen interactions, but others represent new trait dimensions. Finally, since understanding the effects of ecology using existing self-shading theory requires simplifications of the emergent spatial structure that do not apply well here, we also develop metrics describing the complex spatial structure of the predator and prey populations to help us explain the evolutionary effect of predator and prey ecology in the context of self-shading. The identification of these metrics may provide a step towards expansion of the predictive domain of self-shading theory to more complex spatial dynamics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.