Spatial distribution of infection risk of SARS transmission in a hospital ward

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qian, Hua; Li, Yuguo [School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing, JiangSu (China); Nielsen, Peter V. [Department of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, DK-9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Huang, Xinhua [Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai (China)

2009-08-15

The classical Wells-Riley model for predicting risk of airborne transmission of diseases assumes a uniform spatial distribution of the infected cases in an enclosed space. A new mathematical model is developed here for predicting the spatial distribution of infection risk of airborne transmitted diseases by integrating the Wells-Riley equation into computational fluid dynamics. We applied our new integrated model to analyze a large nosocomial SARS outbreak in Hong Kong during the 2003 SARS epidemics, which was studied in the literature with regard to the association between airflow and SARS infection. The predicted numbers of infected cases of medical students in the same cubicle, the adjacent cubicle and the distant cubicle were 6.39, 0.78 and 0.2 respectively while the observed numbers of infected medical students in the three cubicles were 7, 0 and 0 respectively during the morning of March 6th, which was the highest attack period. The predicted numbers of infected cases of inpatients during the morning of March 6th in the same cubicle, the adjacent cubic and the distance cubicle were 7.8, 5.1, and 4.8 respectively which also agree well with the observed distribution of the infected inpatients during the entire infection period. The new developed model provides a new modelling tool for investigating the airborne transmission of diseases in enclosed spaces. The model is applicable when the susceptible stays mostly at the same location in an enclosed space during the infectious period, such as inpatients in a hospital ward, passengers in an airplane etc. (author)

The spatial dynamics of dengue virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piraya Bhoomiboonchoo

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Dengue is endemic to the rural province of Kamphaeng Phet, Northern Thailand. A decade of prospective cohort studies has provided important insights into the dengue viruses and their generated disease. However, as elsewhere, spatial dynamics of the pathogen remain poorly understood. In particular, the spatial scale of transmission and the scale of clustering are poorly characterized. This information is critical for effective deployment of spatially targeted interventions and for understanding the mechanisms that drive the dispersal of the virus.We geocoded the home locations of 4,768 confirmed dengue cases admitted to the main hospital in Kamphaeng Phet province between 1994 and 2008. We used the phi clustering statistic to characterize short-term spatial dependence between cases. Further, to see if clustering of cases led to similar temporal patterns of disease across villages, we calculated the correlation in the long-term epidemic curves between communities. We found that cases were 2.9 times (95% confidence interval 2.7-3.2 more likely to live in the same village and be infected within the same month than expected given the underlying spatial and temporal distribution of cases. This fell to 1.4 times (1.2-1.7 for individuals living in villages 1 km apart. Significant clustering was observed up to 5 km. We found a steadily decreasing trend in the correlation in epidemics curves by distance: communities separated by up to 5 km had a mean correlation of 0.28 falling to 0.16 for communities separated between 20 km and 25 km. A potential explanation for these patterns is a role for human movement in spreading the pathogen between communities. Gravity style models, which attempt to capture population movement, outperformed competing models in describing the observed correlations.There exists significant short-term clustering of cases within individual villages. Effective spatially and temporally targeted interventions deployed within villages may

Hemoglobin concentration determination based on near infrared spatially resolved transmission spectra

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Linna; Li, Gang; Lin, Ling

2016-10-01

Spatially resolved diffuse reflectance spectroscopy method has been proved to be more effective than single point spectroscopy method in the experiment to predict the concentration of the Intralipid diluted solutions. However, Intralipid diluted solution is simple, cannot be the representative of turbid liquids. Blood is a natural and meaningful turbid liquid, more complicate. Hemoglobin is the major constituent of the whole blood. And hemoglobin concentration is commonly used in clinical medicine to diagnose many diseases. In this paper, near infrared spatially resolved transmission spectra (NIRSRTS) and Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR) were used to predict the hemoglobin concentration of human blood. The results showed the prediction ability for hemoglobin concentration of the proposed method is better than single point transmission spectroscopy method. This paper demonstrated the feasibility of the spatially resolved diffuse reflectance spectroscopy method for practical liquid composition analysis. This research provided a new thinking of practical turbid liquid composition analysis.

Dynamics Modelling of Transmission Gear Rattle and Analysis on Influence Factors

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xiaona; Zhang, Honghui

2018-02-01

Based on the vibration dynamics modeling for the single stage gear of transmission system, this paper is to understand the mechanism of transmission rattle. The dynamic model response using MATLAB and Runge-Kutta algorithm is analyzed, and the ways for reducing the rattle noise of the automotive transmission is summarized.

Genomics reveals historic and contemporary transmission dynamics of a bacterial disease among wildlife and livestock

Science.gov (United States)

Kamath, Pauline L.; Foster, Jeffrey T.; Drees, Kevin P.; Luikart, Gordon; Quance, Christine; Anderson, Neil J.; Clarke, P. Ryan; Cole, Eric K.; Drew, Mark L.; Edwards, William H.; Rhyan, Jack C.; Treanor, John J.; Wallen, Rick L.; White, Patrick J.; Robbe-Austerman, Suelee; Cross, Paul C.

2016-01-01

Whole-genome sequencing has provided fundamental insights into infectious disease epidemiology, but has rarely been used for examining transmission dynamics of a bacterial pathogen in wildlife. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), outbreaks of brucellosis have increased in cattle along with rising seroprevalence in elk. Here we use a genomic approach to examine Brucella abortus evolution, cross-species transmission and spatial spread in the GYE. We find that brucellosis was introduced into wildlife in this region at least five times. The diffusion rate varies among Brucella lineages (B3 to 8 km per year) and over time. We also estimate 12 host transitions from bison to elk, and 5 from elk to bison. Our results support the notion that free-ranging elk are currently a self-sustaining brucellosis reservoir and the source of livestock infections, and that control measures in bison are unlikely to affect the dynamics of unrelated strains circulating in nearby elk populations.

The dynamic and indirect spatial effects of neighborhood conditions on land value, spatial panel dynamic econometrics model

Science.gov (United States)

Fitriani, Rahma; Sumarminingsih, Eni; Astutik, Suci

2017-05-01

Land value is the product of past decision of its use leading to its value, as well as the value of the surrounded land. It is also affected by the local characteristic and the spillover development demand of the previous time period. The effect of each factor on land value will have dynamic and spatial virtues. Thus, a spatial panel dynamic model is used to estimate the particular effects. The model will be useful for predicting the future land value or the effect of implemented policy on land value. The objective of this paper is to derive the dynamic and indirect spatial marginal effects of the land characteristic and the spillover development demand on land value. Each effect is the partial derivative of the expected land value based on the spatial dynamic model with respect to each variable, by considering different time period and different location. The results indicate that the instant change of local or neighborhood characteristics on land value affect the local and the immediate neighborhood land value. However, the longer the change take place, the effect will spread further, not only on the immediate neighborhood.

Characterizing the transmission dynamics and control of ebola virus disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerardo Chowell

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Carefully calibrated transmission models have the potential to guide public health officials on the nature and scale of the interventions required to control epidemics. In the context of the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD epidemic in Liberia, Drake and colleagues, in this issue of PLOS Biology, employed an elegant modeling approach to capture the distributions of the number of secondary cases that arise in the community and health care settings in the context of changing population behaviors and increasing hospital capacity. Their findings underscore the role of increasing the rate of safe burials and the fractions of infectious individuals who seek hospitalization together with hospital capacity to achieve epidemic control. However, further modeling efforts of EVD transmission and control in West Africa should utilize the spatial-temporal patterns of spread in the region by incorporating spatial heterogeneity in the transmission process. Detailed datasets are urgently needed to characterize temporal changes in population behaviors, contact networks at different spatial scales, population mobility patterns, adherence to infection control measures in hospital settings, and hospitalization and reporting rates.

Spatial Distribution of Infection Risk of SARS Transmission in a Hospital Ward

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qian, Hua; Li, Yuguo; Nielsen, Peter V.

2009-01-01

The classical Wells-Riley model for predicting risk of airborne transmission of diseases assumes a uniform spatial distribution of the infected cases in an enclosed space. A new mathematical model is developed here for predicting the spatial distribution of infection risk of airborne transmitted ......, such as inpatients in a hospital ward, passengers in an airplane etc....

Method of transmission of dynamic multibit digital images from micro-unmanned aerial vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Petrov, E. P.; Kharina, N. L.

2018-01-01

In connection with successful usage of nanotechnologies in remote sensing great attention is paid to the systems in micro-unmanned aerial vehicles (MUAVs) capable to provide high spatial resolution of dynamic multibit digital images (MDI). Limited energy resources on board the MUAV do not allow transferring a large amount of video information in the shortest possible time. It keeps back the broad development of MUAV. The search for methods to shorten the transmission time of dynamic MDIs from MUAV over the radio channel leads to the methods of MDI compression without computational operations onboard the MUAV. The known compression codecs of video information can not be applied because of the limited energy resources. In this paper we propose a method for reducing the transmission time of dynamic MDIs without computational operations and distortions onboard the MUAV. To develop the method a mathematical apparatus of the theory of conditional Markov processes with discrete arguments was used. On its basis a mathematical model for the transformation of the MDI represented by binary images (BI) in the MDI, consisting of groups of neighboring BIs (GBI) transmitted by multiphase (MP) signals, is constructed. The algorithm for multidimensional nonlinear filtering of MP signals is synthesized, realizing the statistical redundancy of the MDI to compensate for the noise stability losses caused by the use of MP signals.

Transmission dynamic range in chest radiology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemmers, H.E.A.S.J.; Schultze Kool, L.J.; van Elburg, H.J.; Boelens, F.

1989-01-01

Due to the large difference in transmission between the lung area and the mediastinum, the human chest is a challenging object for radiographic imaging. This study is performed in order to define the dynamic range needed for a chest imaging chain. Eight hundred seventy-five consecutive outpatients were imaged with a prototype AMBER (advanced multiple beam equalization radiography) unit at 141 kVp. The equalization facility was disabled, allowing for the simultaneous capture of a film image and a digital dataset representing the local patient transmission in fields of approximately 2x2 cm. The datasets were analyzed to obtain the relation between the average transmission distribution in a subset of the population and physical parameters characterizing this subset, such as body weight or length

Self-error-rejecting photonic qubit transmission in polarization-spatial modes with linear optical elements

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, YuXiao; Guo, PengLiang; Gao, ChengYan; Wang, HaiBo; Alzahrani, Faris; Hobiny, Aatef; Deng, FuGuo

2017-12-01

We present an original self-error-rejecting photonic qubit transmission scheme for both the polarization and spatial states of photon systems transmitted over collective noise channels. In our scheme, we use simple linear-optical elements, including half-wave plates, 50:50 beam splitters, and polarization beam splitters, to convert spatial-polarization modes into different time bins. By using postselection in different time bins, the success probability of obtaining the uncorrupted states approaches 1/4 for single-photon transmission, which is not influenced by the coefficients of noisy channels. Our self-error-rejecting transmission scheme can be generalized to hyperentangled n-photon systems and is useful in practical high-capacity quantum communications with photon systems in two degrees of freedom.

Spatial and temporal clustering of dengue virus transmission in Thai villages.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mammen P Mammen

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV, the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, is known to vary through time and space, likely owing to a combination of factors related to the human host, virus, mosquito vector, and environment. An improved understanding of variation in transmission patterns is fundamental to conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention strategies. To test the hypothesis that DENV transmission is spatially and temporally focal, we compared geographic and temporal characteristics within Thai villages where DENV are and are not being actively transmitted.Cluster investigations were conducted within 100 m of homes where febrile index children with (positive clusters and without (negative clusters acute dengue lived during two seasons of peak DENV transmission. Data on human infection and mosquito infection/density were examined to precisely (1 define the spatial and temporal dimensions of DENV transmission, (2 correlate these factors with variation in DENV transmission, and (3 determine the burden of inapparent and symptomatic infections. Among 556 village children enrolled as neighbors of 12 dengue-positive and 22 dengue-negative index cases, all 27 DENV infections (4.9% of enrollees occurred in positive clusters (p < 0.01; attributable risk [AR] = 10.4 per 100; 95% confidence interval 1-19.8 per 100]. In positive clusters, 12.4% of enrollees became infected in a 15-d period and DENV infections were aggregated centrally near homes of index cases. As only 1 of 217 pairs of serologic specimens tested in positive clusters revealed a recent DENV infection that occurred prior to cluster initiation, we attribute the observed DENV transmission subsequent to cluster investigation to recent DENV transmission activity. Of the 1,022 female adult Ae. aegypti collected, all eight (0.8% dengue-infected mosquitoes came from houses in positive clusters; none from control clusters or schools. Distinguishing features between

Seismic Response of Power Transmission Tower-Line System Subjected to Spatially Varying Ground Motions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Tian

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The behavior of power transmission tower-line system subjected to spatially varying base excitations is studied in this paper. The transmission towers are modeled by beam elements while the transmission lines are modeled by cable elements that account for the nonlinear geometry of the cables. The real multistation data from SMART-1 are used to analyze the system response subjected to spatially varying ground motions. The seismic input waves for vertical and horizontal ground motions are also generated based on the Code for Design of Seismic of Electrical Installations. Both the incoherency of seismic waves and wave travel effects are accounted for. The nonlinear time history analytical method is used in the analysis. The effects of boundary conditions, ground motion spatial variations, the incident angle of the seismic wave, coherency loss, and wave travel on the system are investigated. The results show that the uniform ground motion at all supports of system does not provide the most critical case for the response calculations.

Progress and monitoring system on compression and transmission technologies of dynamic image

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobayashi, Hiroyuki; Saijo, Nobuyuki; Nakajo, Ken

2001-01-01

The Toshiba Corporation developed a real-time dynamic image transmission matched with quality of transmission circuit by using MPEG-4 which was recent international standard system for the dynamic image coding system. Concretely, this system made possible on real-time dynamic image transmission even at transmission on wireless circuit such as portable telephone, PHS, wireless LAN, and so on, at viewpoint of the mobile communication. And, by using the wireless circuit, it could be built without any limit of transmission cable, to realize its layout-free establishment. In addition, this system uses only image for communication without using voice, and some devices were carried out to upgrade image and frame speed as possible. Here were described on outlines of transmission system and principle of detection MPEG-4, and function and application of monitoring system using this system. (G.K.)

Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanski, Ilkka A

2011-08-30

Demographic population dynamics, gene flow, and local adaptation may influence each other and lead to coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, especially in species inhabiting fragmented heterogeneous environments. Here, I review long-term research on eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in the Glanville fritillary butterfly inhabiting a large network of approximately 4,000 meadows in Finland. The metapopulation persists in a balance between frequent local extinctions and recolonizations. The genetic spatial structure as defined by neutral markers is much more coarse-grained than the demographic spatial structure determined by the fragmented habitat, yet small-scale spatial structure has important consequences for the dynamics. I discuss three examples of eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics. (i) Extinction-colonization metapopulation dynamics influence allele frequency changes in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, which leads to strong associations between genetic variation in Pgi and dispersal, recolonization, and local population dynamics. (ii) Inbreeding in local populations increases their risk for extinction, whereas reciprocal effects between inbreeding, population size, and emigration represent likely eco-evolutionary feedbacks. (iii) Genetically determined female oviposition preference for two host plant species exhibits a cline paralleling a gradient in host plant relative abundances, and host plant preference of dispersing females in relation to the host plant composition of habitat patches influences immigration (gene flow) and recolonization (founder events). Eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics in heterogeneous environments may not lead to directional evolutionary changes unless the environment itself changes, but eco-evolutionary dynamics may contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation attributable to fluctuating selection in space and time.

Pulsed Power for a Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscope

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

dehope, w j; browning, n; campbell, g; cook, e; king, w; lagrange, t; reed, b; stuart, b; Shuttlesworth, R; Pyke, B

2009-06-25

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has converted a commercial 200kV transmission electron microscope (TEM) into an ultrafast, nanoscale diagnostic tool for material science studies. The resulting Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscope (DTEM) has provided a unique tool for the study of material phase transitions, reaction front analyses, and other studies in the fields of chemistry, materials science, and biology. The TEM's thermionic electron emission source was replaced with a fast photocathode and a laser beam path was provided for ultraviolet surface illumination. The resulting photoelectron beam gives downstream images of 2 and 20 ns exposure times at 100 and 10 nm spatial resolution. A separate laser, used as a pump pulse, is used to heat, ignite, or shock samples while the photocathode electron pulses, carefully time-synchronized with the pump, function as probe in fast transient studies. The device functions in both imaging and diffraction modes. A laser upgrade is underway to make arbitrary cathode pulse trains of variable pulse width of 10-1000 ns. Along with a fast e-beam deflection scheme, a 'movie mode' capability will be added to this unique diagnostic tool. This talk will review conventional electron microscopy and its limitations, discuss the development and capabilities of DTEM, in particularly addressing the prime and pulsed power considerations in the design and fabrication of the DTEM, and conclude with the presentation of a deflector and solid-state pulser design for Movie-Mode DTEM.

Pulsed Power for a Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscope

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeHope, W.J.; Browning, N.; Campbell, G.; Cook, E.; King, W.; Lagrange, T.; Reed, B.; Stuart, B.; Shuttlesworth, R.; Pyke, B.

2009-01-01

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has converted a commercial 200kV transmission electron microscope (TEM) into an ultrafast, nanoscale diagnostic tool for material science studies. The resulting Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscope (DTEM) has provided a unique tool for the study of material phase transitions, reaction front analyses, and other studies in the fields of chemistry, materials science, and biology. The TEM's thermionic electron emission source was replaced with a fast photocathode and a laser beam path was provided for ultraviolet surface illumination. The resulting photoelectron beam gives downstream images of 2 and 20 ns exposure times at 100 and 10 nm spatial resolution. A separate laser, used as a pump pulse, is used to heat, ignite, or shock samples while the photocathode electron pulses, carefully time-synchronized with the pump, function as probe in fast transient studies. The device functions in both imaging and diffraction modes. A laser upgrade is underway to make arbitrary cathode pulse trains of variable pulse width of 10-1000 ns. Along with a fast e-beam deflection scheme, a 'movie mode' capability will be added to this unique diagnostic tool. This talk will review conventional electron microscopy and its limitations, discuss the development and capabilities of DTEM, in particularly addressing the prime and pulsed power considerations in the design and fabrication of the DTEM, and conclude with the presentation of a deflector and solid-state pulser design for Movie-Mode DTEM

Analysis on Dynamic Transmission Accuracy for RV Reducer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Fengshou

2017-01-01

Full Text Available By taking rotate vector (RV reducer as the research object, the factors affecting the transmission accuracy are studied, including the machining errors of the main parts, assembly errors, clearance, micro-displacement, gear mesh stiffness and damping, bearing stiffness. Based on Newton second law, the transmission error mathematical model of RV reducer is set up. Then, the RV reducer transmission error curve is achieved by solving the mathematical model using the Runge-Kutta methods under the combined action of various error factors. Through the analysis of RV reducer transmission test, it can be found that there are similar variation trend and frequency components compared the theoretical research and experimental result. The presented method is useful to the research on dynamic transmission accuracy of RV reducer, and also applies to research the transmission accuracy of other cycloid drive systems.

A review of malaria transmission dynamics in forest ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Malaria continues to be a major health problem in more than 100 endemic countries located primarily in tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Malaria transmission is a dynamic process and involves many interlinked factors, from uncontrollable natural environmental conditions to man-made disturbances to nature. Almost half of the population at risk of malaria lives in forest areas. Forests are hot beds of malaria transmission as they provide conditions such as vegetation cover, temperature, rainfall and humidity conditions that are conducive to distribution and survival of malaria vectors. Forests often lack infrastructure and harbor tribes with distinct genetic traits, socio-cultural beliefs and practices that greatly influence malaria transmission dynamics. Here we summarize the various topographical, entomological, parasitological, human ecological and socio-economic factors, which are crucial and shape malaria transmission in forested areas. An in-depth understanding and synthesis of the intricate relationship of these parameters in achieving better malaria control in various types of forest ecosystems is emphasized. PMID:24912923

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Scrub Typhus Transmission in Mainland China, 2006-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yi-Cheng; Qian, Quan; Soares Magalhaes, Ricardo J; Han, Zhi-Hai; Hu, Wen-Biao; Haque, Ubydul; Weppelmann, Thomas A; Wang, Yong; Liu, Yun-Xi; Li, Xin-Lou; Sun, Hai-Long; Sun, Yan-Song; Clements, Archie C A; Li, Shen-Long; Zhang, Wen-Yi

2016-08-01

Scrub typhus is endemic in the Asia-Pacific region including China, and the number of reported cases has increased dramatically in the past decade. However, the spatial-temporal dynamics and the potential risk factors in transmission of scrub typhus in mainland China have yet to be characterized. This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported scrub typhus cases in mainland China between January 2006 and December 2014, to detect the location of high risk spatiotemporal clusters of scrub typhus cases, and identify the potential risk factors affecting the re-emergence of the disease. Monthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level between 2006 and 2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Time-series analyses, spatiotemporal cluster analyses, and spatial scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics of the scrub typhus incidence. To explore the association between scrub typhus incidence and environmental variables panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted. During the time period between 2006 and 2014 a total of 54,558 scrub typhus cases were reported in mainland China, which grew exponentially. The majority of cases were reported each year between July and November, with peak incidence during October every year. The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus varied over the study period with high-risk clusters identified in southwest, southern, and middle-eastern part of China. Scrub typhus incidence was positively correlated with the percentage of shrub and meteorological variables including temperature and precipitation. The results of this study demonstrate areas in China that could be targeted with public health interventions to mitigate the growing threat of scrub typhus in the country.

A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel Waema Mbogo

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.

Large-Scale Spatial Dynamics of Intertidal Mussel (

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Folmer, E.O.; Drent, J.; Troost, K.; Büttger, H.; Dankers, N.; Jansen, J.; van Stralen, M.; Millat, G.; Herlyn, M.; Philippart, C.J.M.

2014-01-01

Intertidal blue mussel beds are important for the functioning and community composition of coastal ecosystems. Modeling spatial dynamics of intertidal mussel beds is complicated because suitable habitat is spatially heterogeneously distributed and recruitment and loss are hard to predict. To get

Dynamic investigation of a locomotive with effect of gear transmissions under tractive conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zaigang; Zhai, Wanming; Wang, Kaiyun

2017-11-01

Locomotive is used to drag trailers to move or supply the braking forces to slow the running speed of a train. The electromagnetic torque of the motor is always transmitted by the gear transmission system to the wheelset for generation of the tractive or braking forces at the wheel-rail contact interface. Consequently, gear transmission system is significant for power delivery of a locomotive. This paper develops a comprehensive locomotive-track vertical-longitudinal coupled dynamics model with dynamic effect of gear transmissions. This dynamics model enables considering the coupling interactions between the gear transmission motion, the vertical and the longitudinal motions of the vehicle, and the vertical vibration of the track structure. In this study, some complicated dynamic excitations, such as the gear time-varying mesh stiffness, nonlinear gear tooth backlash, the nonlinear wheel-rail normal contact force and creep force, and the rail vertical geometrical irregularity, are considered. Then, the dynamic responses of the locomotive under the tractive conditions are demonstrated by numerical simulations based on the established dynamics model and by experimental test. The developed dynamics model is validated by the good agreement between the experimental and the theoretical results. The calculated results reveal that the gear transmission system has strong dynamic interactions with the wheel-rail contact interface including both the vertical and the longitudinal motions, and it has negligible effect on the vibrations of the bogie frame and carbody.

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Lion, S; Gandon, S

2016-10-26

Most spatial models of host-parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Dynamic spatial panels : models, methods, and inferences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elhorst, J. Paul

This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent

DFT based spatial multiplexing and maximum ratio transmission for mm-wawe large MIMO

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Phan-Huy, D.-T.; Tölli, A.; Rajatheva, N.

2014-01-01

-SM-MRT). When the DFT-SM scheme alone is used, the data streams are either mapped onto different angles of departures in the case of aligned linear arrays, or mapped onto different orbital angular momentums in the case of aligned circular arrays. Maximum ratio transmission pre-equalizes the channel......By using large point-to-point multiple input multiple output (MIMO), spatial multiplexing of a large number of data streams in wireless communications using millimeter-waves (mm-waves) can be achieved. However, according to the antenna spacing and transmitter-receiver distance, the MIMO channel...... is likely to be ill-conditioned. In such conditions, highly complex schemes such as the singular value decomposition (SVD) are necessary. In this paper, we propose a new low complexity system called discrete Fourier transform based spatial multiplexing (DFT-SM) with maximum ratio transmission (DFT...

Transmission probability-based dynamic power control for multi-radio mesh networks

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Olwal, TO

2008-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an analytical model for the selection of the transmission power based on the bi-directional medium access information. Most of dynamic transmission power control algorithms are based on the single directional channel...

Dynamic analysis of spiral bevel and hypoid gears with high-order transmission errors

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, J. J.; Shi, Z. H.; Zhang, H.; Li, T. X.; Nie, S. W.; Wei, B. Y.

2018-03-01

A new gear surface modification methodology based on curvature synthesis is proposed in this study to improve the transmission performance. The generated high-order transmission error (TE) for spiral bevel and hypoid gears is proved to reduce the vibration of geared-rotor system. The method is comprised of the following steps: Firstly, the fully conjugate gear surfaces with pinion flank modified according to the predesigned relative transmission movement are established based on curvature correction. Secondly, a 14-DOF geared-rotor system model considering backlash nonlinearity is used to evaluate the effect of different orders of TE on the dynamic performance a hypoid gear transmission system. For case study, numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the dynamic response of hypoid gear pair with parabolic, fourth-order and sixth-order transmission error derived. The results show that the parabolic TE curve has higher peak to peak amplitude compared to the other two types of TE. Thus, the excited dynamic response also shows larger amplitude at response peaks. Dynamic responses excited by fourth and sixth order TE also demonstrate distinct response components due to their different TE period which is expected to generate different sound quality or other acoustic characteristics.

Efficient Enhancement for Spatial Scalable Video Coding Transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mayada Khairy

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Scalable Video Coding (SVC is an international standard technique for video compression. It is an extension of H.264 Advanced Video Coding (AVC. In the encoding of video streams by SVC, it is suitable to employ the macroblock (MB mode because it affords superior coding efficiency. However, the exhaustive mode decision technique that is usually used for SVC increases the computational complexity, resulting in a longer encoding time (ET. Many other algorithms were proposed to solve this problem with imperfection of increasing transmission time (TT across the network. To minimize the ET and TT, this paper introduces four efficient algorithms based on spatial scalability. The algorithms utilize the mode-distribution correlation between the base layer (BL and enhancement layers (ELs and interpolation between the EL frames. The proposed algorithms are of two categories. Those of the first category are based on interlayer residual SVC spatial scalability. They employ two methods, namely, interlayer interpolation (ILIP and the interlayer base mode (ILBM method, and enable ET and TT savings of up to 69.3% and 83.6%, respectively. The algorithms of the second category are based on full-search SVC spatial scalability. They utilize two methods, namely, full interpolation (FIP and the full-base mode (FBM method, and enable ET and TT savings of up to 55.3% and 76.6%, respectively.

Spatial data efficient transmission in WebGIS based on IPv6

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhen-feng; Liu, Ji-ping; Wang, Liang; Tao, Kun-wang

2008-12-01

Large-size of spatial data and limited bandwidth of network make it restricted to transmit spatial data in WebGIS. This paper employs IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6), the successor of IPv4 running now, to transmit spatial data efficiently. As the core of NGN (Next Generation Network), IPv6 brings us many advantages to resolve performance problems in current IPv4 network applications. Multicast, which is mandatory in IPv6 routers, can make one server serve many clients simultaneously efficiently, thus to improve capacity of network applications. The new type of anycast address in IPv6 will make network client applications possible to find the nearest server. This makes data transmission between client and server fastest. The paper introduces how to apply IPv6 multicast and anycast in WebGIS to transmit data efficiently.

Spatial cluster detection using dynamic programming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sverchkov Yuriy

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The task of spatial cluster detection involves finding spatial regions where some property deviates from the norm or the expected value. In a probabilistic setting this task can be expressed as finding a region where some event is significantly more likely than usual. Spatial cluster detection is of interest in fields such as biosurveillance, mining of astronomical data, military surveillance, and analysis of fMRI images. In almost all such applications we are interested both in the question of whether a cluster exists in the data, and if it exists, we are interested in finding the most accurate characterization of the cluster. Methods We present a general dynamic programming algorithm for grid-based spatial cluster detection. The algorithm can be used for both Bayesian maximum a-posteriori (MAP estimation of the most likely spatial distribution of clusters and Bayesian model averaging over a large space of spatial cluster distributions to compute the posterior probability of an unusual spatial clustering. The algorithm is explained and evaluated in the context of a biosurveillance application, specifically the detection and identification of Influenza outbreaks based on emergency department visits. A relatively simple underlying model is constructed for the purpose of evaluating the algorithm, and the algorithm is evaluated using the model and semi-synthetic test data. Results When compared to baseline methods, tests indicate that the new algorithm can improve MAP estimates under certain conditions: the greedy algorithm we compared our method to was found to be more sensitive to smaller outbreaks, while as the size of the outbreaks increases, in terms of area affected and proportion of individuals affected, our method overtakes the greedy algorithm in spatial precision and recall. The new algorithm performs on-par with baseline methods in the task of Bayesian model averaging. Conclusions We conclude that the dynamic

Adaptive social learning strategies in temporally and spatially varying environments : how temporal vs. spatial variation, number of cultural traits, and costs of learning influence the evolution of conformist-biased transmission, payoff-biased transmission, and individual learning.

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Nakahashi, Wataru; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Henrich, Joseph

2012-12-01

Long before the origins of agriculture human ancestors had expanded across the globe into an immense variety of environments, from Australian deserts to Siberian tundra. Survival in these environments did not principally depend on genetic adaptations, but instead on evolved learning strategies that permitted the assembly of locally adaptive behavioral repertoires. To develop hypotheses about these learning strategies, we have modeled the evolution of learning strategies to assess what conditions and constraints favor which kinds of strategies. To build on prior work, we focus on clarifying how spatial variability, temporal variability, and the number of cultural traits influence the evolution of four types of strategies: (1) individual learning, (2) unbiased social learning, (3) payoff-biased social learning, and (4) conformist transmission. Using a combination of analytic and simulation methods, we show that spatial-but not temporal-variation strongly favors the emergence of conformist transmission. This effect intensifies when migration rates are relatively high and individual learning is costly. We also show that increasing the number of cultural traits above two favors the evolution of conformist transmission, which suggests that the assumption of only two traits in many models has been conservative. We close by discussing how (1) spatial variability represents only one way of introducing the low-level, nonadaptive phenotypic trait variation that so favors conformist transmission, the other obvious way being learning errors, and (2) our findings apply to the evolution of conformist transmission in social interactions. Throughout we emphasize how our models generate empirical predictions suitable for laboratory testing.

Correction for dynamic bias error in transmission measurements of void fraction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, P.; Sundén, E. Andersson; Svärd, S. Jacobsson; Sjöstrand, H.

2012-01-01

Dynamic bias errors occur in transmission measurements, such as X-ray, gamma, or neutron radiography or tomography. This is observed when the properties of the object are not stationary in time and its average properties are assessed. The nonlinear measurement response to changes in transmission within the time scale of the measurement implies a bias, which can be difficult to correct for. A typical example is the tomographic or radiographic mapping of void content in dynamic two-phase flow systems. In this work, the dynamic bias error is described and a method to make a first-order correction is derived. A prerequisite for this method is variance estimates of the system dynamics, which can be obtained using high-speed, time-resolved data acquisition. However, in the absence of such acquisition, a priori knowledge might be used to substitute the time resolved data. Using synthetic data, a void fraction measurement case study has been simulated to demonstrate the performance of the suggested method. The transmission length of the radiation in the object under study and the type of fluctuation of the void fraction have been varied. Significant decreases in the dynamic bias error were achieved to the expense of marginal decreases in precision.

HIV Transmission Dynamics Among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States.

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Valverde, Eduardo E; Oster, Alexandra M; Xu, Songli; Wertheim, Joel O; Hernandez, Angela L

2017-12-15

In the United States (US), foreign-born persons are disproportionately affected by HIV and differ epidemiologically from US-born persons with diagnosed HIV infection. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics among foreign-born persons is important to guide HIV prevention efforts for these populations. We conducted molecular transmission network analysis to describe HIV transmission dynamics among foreign-born persons with diagnosed HIV. Using HIV-1 polymerase nucleotide sequences reported to the US National HIV Surveillance System for persons with diagnosed HIV infection during 2001-2013, we constructed a genetic distance-based transmission network using HIV-TRACE and examined the birth region of potential transmission partners in this network. Of 77,686 people, 12,064 (16%) were foreign born. Overall, 28% of foreign-born persons linked to at least one other person in the transmission network. Of potential transmission partners, 62% were born in the United States, 31% were born in the same region as the foreign-born person, and 7% were born in another region of the world. Most transmission partners of male foreign-born persons (63%) were born in the United States, whereas most transmission partners of female foreign-borns (57%) were born in their same world region. These finding suggests that a majority of HIV infections among foreign-born persons in our network occurred after immigrating to the United States. Efforts to prevent HIV infection among foreign-born persons in the United States should include information of the transmission networks in which these individuals acquire or transmit HIV to develop more targeted HIV prevention interventions.

Analysing spatially extended high-dimensional dynamics by recurrence plots

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marwan, Norbert, E-mail: marwan@pik-potsdam.de [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Kurths, Jürgen [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Institut für Physik (Germany); Nizhny Novgorod State University, Department of Control Theory, Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); Foerster, Saskia [GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 1.4 Remote Sensing, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam (Germany)

2015-05-08

Recurrence plot based measures of complexity are capable tools for characterizing complex dynamics. In this letter we show the potential of selected recurrence plot measures for the investigation of even high-dimensional dynamics. We apply this method on spatially extended chaos, such as derived from the Lorenz96 model and show that the recurrence plot based measures can qualitatively characterize typical dynamical properties such as chaotic or periodic dynamics. Moreover, we demonstrate its power by analysing satellite image time series of vegetation cover with contrasting dynamics as a spatially extended and potentially high-dimensional example from the real world. - Highlights: • We use recurrence plots for analysing partially extended dynamics. • We investigate the high-dimensional chaos of the Lorenz96 model. • The approach distinguishes different spatio-temporal dynamics. • We use the method for studying vegetation cover time series.

Optimal estimation of spatially variable recharge and transmissivity fields under steady-state groundwater flow. Part 1. Theory

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Graham, Wendy D.; Tankersley, Claude D.

1994-05-01

Stochastic methods are used to analyze two-dimensional steady groundwater flow subject to spatially variable recharge and transmissivity. Approximate partial differential equations are developed for the covariances and cross-covariances between the random head, transmissivity and recharge fields. Closed-form solutions of these equations are obtained using Fourier transform techniques. The resulting covariances and cross-covariances can be incorporated into a Bayesian conditioning procedure which provides optimal estimates of the recharge, transmissivity and head fields given available measurements of any or all of these random fields. Results show that head measurements contain valuable information for estimating the random recharge field. However, when recharge is treated as a spatially variable random field, the value of head measurements for estimating the transmissivity field can be reduced considerably. In a companion paper, the method is applied to a case study of the Upper Floridan Aquifer in NE Florida.

Influence of Shaft Torsional Stiffness on Dynamic Response of Four-Stage Main Transmission System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuan Chen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Dynamic response analysis has potential for increasing fatigue life of the components in the transmission of a multistage main transmission system. The calculated data can demonstrate the influence of shaft torsional stiffness on dynamic characteristics of the system. Detecting key shafts of the system and analyzing their sensitivity are important for the design of four-stage helicopter gear box. Lumped mass method is applied for dynamic modeling and Fourier method is used to solve differential equation of the system. Results of the analysis indicate that key shafts can be designed carefully to improve the performance of the transmission system.

Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

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Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

2013-02-01

Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

High-speed nanoscale characterization of dewetting via dynamic transmission electron microscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hihath, Sahar; Santala, Melissa K.; Campbell, Geoffrey; Benthem, Klaus van

2016-01-01

The dewetting of thin films can occur in either the solid or the liquid state for which different mass transport mechanisms are expected to control morphological changes. Traditionally, dewetting dynamics have been examined on time scales between several seconds to hours, and length scales ranging between nanometers and millimeters. The determination of mass transport mechanisms on the nanoscale, however, requires nanoscale spatial resolution and much shorter time scales. This study reports the high-speed observation of dewetting phenomena for kinetically constrained Ni thin films on crystalline SrTiO_3 substrates. Movie-mode Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscopy (DTEM) was used for high-speed image acquisition during thin film dewetting at different temperatures. DTEM imaging confirmed that the initial stages of film agglomeration include edge retraction, hole formation, and growth. Finite element modeling was used to simulate temperature distributions within the DTEM samples after laser irradiation with different energies. For pulsed laser irradiation at 18 μJ, experimentally observed hole growth suggests that Marangoni flow dominates hole formation in the liquid nickel film. After irradiation with 13.8 μJ, however, the observations suggest that dewetting was initiated by nucleation of voids followed by hole growth through solid-state surface diffusion.

High-speed nanoscale characterization of dewetting via dynamic transmission electron microscopy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hihath, Sahar [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Ave., Davis, California 95616 (United States); Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Ave., Davis, California 95616 (United States); Santala, Melissa K.; Campbell, Geoffrey [Materials Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Ave., Livermore, California 94550 (United States); Benthem, Klaus van, E-mail: benthem@ucdavis.edu [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Ave., Davis, California 95616 (United States)

2016-08-28

The dewetting of thin films can occur in either the solid or the liquid state for which different mass transport mechanisms are expected to control morphological changes. Traditionally, dewetting dynamics have been examined on time scales between several seconds to hours, and length scales ranging between nanometers and millimeters. The determination of mass transport mechanisms on the nanoscale, however, requires nanoscale spatial resolution and much shorter time scales. This study reports the high-speed observation of dewetting phenomena for kinetically constrained Ni thin films on crystalline SrTiO{sub 3} substrates. Movie-mode Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscopy (DTEM) was used for high-speed image acquisition during thin film dewetting at different temperatures. DTEM imaging confirmed that the initial stages of film agglomeration include edge retraction, hole formation, and growth. Finite element modeling was used to simulate temperature distributions within the DTEM samples after laser irradiation with different energies. For pulsed laser irradiation at 18 μJ, experimentally observed hole growth suggests that Marangoni flow dominates hole formation in the liquid nickel film. After irradiation with 13.8 μJ, however, the observations suggest that dewetting was initiated by nucleation of voids followed by hole growth through solid-state surface diffusion.

The effects of spatial dynamics on a wormhole throat

Science.gov (United States)

Alias, Anuar; Wan Abdullah, Wan Ahmad Tajuddin

2018-02-01

Previous studies on dynamic wormholes were focused on the dynamics of the wormhole itself, be it either rotating or evolutionary in character and also in various frameworks from classical to braneworld cosmological models. In this work, we modeled a dynamic factor that represents the spatial dynamics in terms of spacetime expansion and contraction surrounding the wormhole itself. Using an RS2-based braneworld cosmological model, we modified the spacetime metric of Wong and subsequently employed the method of Bronnikov, where it is observed that a traversable wormhole is easier to exist in an expanding brane universe, however it is difficult to exist in a contracting brane universe due to stress-energy tensors requirement. This model of spatial dynamic factor affecting the wormhole throat can also be applied on the cyclic or the bounce universe model.

Mule deer spatial association patterns and potential implications for transmission of an epizootic disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Fernanda Mejía-Salazar

Full Text Available Animal social behaviour can have important effects on the long-term dynamics of diseases. In particular, preferential spatial relationships between individuals can lead to differences in the rates of disease spread within a population. We examined the concurrent influence of genetic relatedness, sex, age, home range overlap, time of year, and prion disease status on proximal associations of adult Rocky Mountain mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus hemionus in a chronic wasting disease endemic area. We also quantified the temporal stability of these associations across different sex, age, and disease status classes. We used three years of high frequency telemetry data from 74 individuals to record encounters within 25 m of each other, and to calculate seasonal home range overlap measured by volume of intersection (VI. The strength of pairwise spatial association between adult mule deer was independent of genetic relatedness, age and disease status. Seasonal variation in association strength was not consistent across years, perhaps due to annual changes in weather conditions. The influence of home range overlap on association strength varied seasonally, whereby associations were stronger in pre-rut and fawning than in the rest of the seasons. The sexes of individuals also interacted with both VI and season. At increasing levels of VI, associations were stronger between females than between males and between females and males. The strongest associations in pre-rut were between males, while the strongest in rut were between females and males. The temporal stability of associations was markedly dependant on the sex and the diagnosis of the associating pair. Our findings highlight the importance of considering concurrent effects of biological and environmental factors when seeking to understand the role of social preference in behavioural ecology and disease spread. Applying this knowledge in epidemiological modelling will shed light on the dynamics of

Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

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Keeling Matthew J

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

Correlation of Spatially Filtered Dynamic Speckles in Distance Measurement Application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semenov, Dmitry V.; Nippolainen, Ervin; Kamshilin, Alexei A.; Miridonov, Serguei V.

2008-01-01

In this paper statistical properties of spatially filtered dynamic speckles are considered. This phenomenon was not sufficiently studied yet while spatial filtering is an important instrument for speckles velocity measurements. In case of spatial filtering speckle velocity information is derived from the modulation frequency of filtered light power which is measured by photodetector. Typical photodetector output is represented by a narrow-band random noise signal which includes non-informative intervals. Therefore more or less precious frequency measurement requires averaging. In its turn averaging implies uncorrelated samples. However, conducting research we found that correlation is typical property not only of dynamic speckle patterns but also of spatially filtered speckles. Using spatial filtering the correlation is observed as a response of measurements provided to the same part of the object surface or in case of simultaneously using several adjacent photodetectors. Found correlations can not be explained using just properties of unfiltered dynamic speckles. As we demonstrate the subject of this paper is important not only from pure theoretical point but also from the point of applied speckle metrology. E.g. using single spatial filter and an array of photodetector can greatly improve accuracy of speckle velocity measurements

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Mass Mortalities in Oysters Is Influenced by Energetic Reserves and Food Quality

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Pernet, Fabrice; Lagarde, Franck; Jeannée, Nicolas; Daigle, Gaetan; Barret, Jean; Le Gall, Patrik; Quere, Claudie; D’orbcastel, Emmanuelle Roque

2014-01-01

Although spatial studies of diseases on land have a long history, far fewer have been made on aquatic diseases. Here, we present the first large-scale, high-resolution spatial and temporal representation of a mass mortality phenomenon cause by the Ostreid herpesvirus (OsHV-1) that has affected oysters (Crassostrea gigas) every year since 2008, in relation to their energetic reserves and the quality of their food. Disease mortality was investigated in healthy oysters deployed at 106 locations in the Thau Mediterranean lagoon before the start of the epizootic in spring 2011. We found that disease mortality of oysters showed strong spatial dependence clearly reflecting the epizootic process of local transmission. Disease initiated inside oyster farms spread rapidly beyond these areas. Local differences in energetic condition of oysters, partly driven by variation in food quality, played a significant role in the spatial and temporal dynamics of disease mortality. In particular, the relative contribution of diatoms to the diet of oysters was positively correlated with their energetic reserves, which in turn decreased the risk of disease mortality. PMID:24551106

Spatial and temporal dynamics of mass mortalities in oysters is influenced by energetic reserves and food quality.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabrice Pernet

Full Text Available Although spatial studies of diseases on land have a long history, far fewer have been made on aquatic diseases. Here, we present the first large-scale, high-resolution spatial and temporal representation of a mass mortality phenomenon cause by the Ostreid herpesvirus (OsHV-1 that has affected oysters (Crassostrea gigas every year since 2008, in relation to their energetic reserves and the quality of their food. Disease mortality was investigated in healthy oysters deployed at 106 locations in the Thau Mediterranean lagoon before the start of the epizootic in spring 2011. We found that disease mortality of oysters showed strong spatial dependence clearly reflecting the epizootic process of local transmission. Disease initiated inside oyster farms spread rapidly beyond these areas. Local differences in energetic condition of oysters, partly driven by variation in food quality, played a significant role in the spatial and temporal dynamics of disease mortality. In particular, the relative contribution of diatoms to the diet of oysters was positively correlated with their energetic reserves, which in turn decreased the risk of disease mortality.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of mass mortalities in oysters is influenced by energetic reserves and food quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Pernet, Fabrice; Lagarde, Franck; Jeannée, Nicolas; Daigle, Gaetan; Barret, Jean; Le Gall, Patrik; Quere, Claudie; D'orbcastel, Emmanuelle Roque

2014-01-01

Although spatial studies of diseases on land have a long history, far fewer have been made on aquatic diseases. Here, we present the first large-scale, high-resolution spatial and temporal representation of a mass mortality phenomenon cause by the Ostreid herpesvirus (OsHV-1) that has affected oysters (Crassostrea gigas) every year since 2008, in relation to their energetic reserves and the quality of their food. Disease mortality was investigated in healthy oysters deployed at 106 locations in the Thau Mediterranean lagoon before the start of the epizootic in spring 2011. We found that disease mortality of oysters showed strong spatial dependence clearly reflecting the epizootic process of local transmission. Disease initiated inside oyster farms spread rapidly beyond these areas. Local differences in energetic condition of oysters, partly driven by variation in food quality, played a significant role in the spatial and temporal dynamics of disease mortality. In particular, the relative contribution of diatoms to the diet of oysters was positively correlated with their energetic reserves, which in turn decreased the risk of disease mortality.

Spatial price transmission in Pakistan: The Case of Wheat and Rice Markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, U. I.; Iqbal, M. A.; Rizwan, M.; Ying, L.; Bashir, M. K.; Iqbal, M. M.; Qamar, M. R.; Nazeer, A.

2015-01-01

This study investigates the spatial price transmission among major wheat and rice markets of Pakistan using their monthly retail prices. For analysis Vector Error Correction Model and Co-integration approach were employed. Results showed that wheat and rice market prices are integrated. Some markets have positive or negative transmission shocks on each other due to the different geographical locations and transport infrastructure. All the wheat markets are adjusted to price changes in the long run equilibrium except few markets. Unidirectional and bidirectional causality exists between wheat and rice markets. Bad and poor infrastructure is a major impediment to price transmission among the markets. These market imperfections lead to food insecurity in the country. Government should formulate better policies and develop infrastructure towards better and efficient market function. The results of this study will help the policy makers to formulate a better policy to enhance marketing function to overcome food insecurity situation. (author)

Graph Theory Roots of Spatial Operators for Kinematics and Dynamics

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Jain, Abhinandan

2011-01-01

Spatial operators have been used to analyze the dynamics of robotic multibody systems and to develop novel computational dynamics algorithms. Mass matrix factorization, inversion, diagonalization, and linearization are among several new insights obtained using such operators. While initially developed for serial rigid body manipulators, the spatial operators and the related mathematical analysis have been shown to extend very broadly including to tree and closed topology systems, to systems with flexible joints, links, etc. This work uses concepts from graph theory to explore the mathematical foundations of spatial operators. The goal is to study and characterize the properties of the spatial operators at an abstract level so that they can be applied to a broader range of dynamics problems. The rich mathematical properties of the kinematics and dynamics of robotic multibody systems has been an area of strong research interest for several decades. These properties are important to understand the inherent physical behavior of systems, for stability and control analysis, for the development of computational algorithms, and for model development of faithful models. Recurring patterns in spatial operators leads one to ask the more abstract question about the properties and characteristics of spatial operators that make them so broadly applicable. The idea is to step back from the specific application systems, and understand more deeply the generic requirements and properties of spatial operators, so that the insights and techniques are readily available across different kinematics and dynamics problems. In this work, techniques from graph theory were used to explore the abstract basis for the spatial operators. The close relationship between the mathematical properties of adjacency matrices for graphs and those of spatial operators and their kernels were established. The connections hold across very basic requirements on the system topology, the nature of the component

Study of spatially extended dynamical systems using probabilistic cellular automata

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanag, Vladimir K

1999-01-01

Spatially extended dynamical systems are ubiquitous and include such things as insect and animal populations; complex chemical, technological, and geochemical processes; humanity itself, and much more. It is clearly desirable to have a certain universal tool with which the highly complex behaviour of nonlinear dynamical systems can be analyzed and modelled. For this purpose, cellular automata seem to be good candidates. In the present review, emphasis is placed on the possibilities that various types of probabilistic cellular automata (PCA), such as DSMC (direct simulation Monte Carlo) and LGCA (lattice-gas cellular automata), offer. The methods are primarily designed for modelling spatially extended dynamical systems with inner fluctuations accounted for. For the Willamowskii-Roessler and Oregonator models, PCA applications to the following problems are illustrated: the effect of fluctuations on the dynamics of nonlinear systems; Turing structure formation; the effect of hydrodynamic modes on the behaviour of nonlinear chemical systems (stirring effects); bifurcation changes in the dynamical regimes of complex systems with restricted geometry or low spatial dimension; and the description of chemical systems in microemulsions. (reviews of topical problems)

Spatial Patterns and Socioecological Drivers of Dengue Fever Transmission in Queensland, Australia

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Clements, Archie; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu; Mengersen, Kerrie

2011-01-01

Background: Understanding how socioecological factors affect the transmission of dengue fever (DF) may help to develop an early warning system of DF. Objectives: We examined the impact of socioecological factors on the transmission of DF and assessed potential predictors of locally acquired and overseas-acquired cases of DF in Queensland, Australia. Methods: We obtained data from Queensland Health on the numbers of notified DF cases by local government area (LGA) in Queensland for the period 1 January 2002 through 31 December 2005. Data on weather and the socioeconomic index were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted at the LGA level to quantify the relationship between DF and socioecological factors. Results: Our estimates suggest an increase in locally acquired DF of 6% [95% credible interval (CI): 2%, 11%] and 61% (95% CI: 2%, 241%) in association with a 1-mm increase in average monthly rainfall and a 1°C increase in average monthly maximum temperature between 2002 and 2005, respectively. By contrast, overseas-acquired DF cases increased by 1% (95% CI: 0%, 3%) and by 1% (95% CI: 0%, 2%) in association with a 1-mm increase in average monthly rainfall and a 1-unit increase in average socioeconomic index, respectively. Conclusions: Socioecological factors appear to influence the transmission of DF in Queensland, but the drivers of locally acquired and overseas-acquired DF may differ. DF risk is spatially clustered with different patterns for locally acquired and overseas-acquired cases. PMID:22015625

Fractal dimension evolution and spatial replacement dynamics of urban growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Yanguang

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► The fractal dimension growth can be modeled by Boltzmann’s equation. ► Boltzmann’s model suggests urban spatial replacement dynamics. ► If the rate of urban growth is too high, periodic oscillations or chaos will arise. ► Chaos is associated with fractals by the fractal dimension evolution model. ► The fractal dimension of urban form implies the space-filling ratio of a city. - Abstract: This paper presents a new perspective of looking at the relation between fractals and chaos by means of cities. Especially, a principle of space filling and spatial replacement is proposed to interpret the fractal dimension of urban form. The fractal dimension evolution of urban growth can be empirically modeled with Boltzmann’s equation. For the normalized data, Boltzmann’s equation is just equivalent to the logistic function. The logistic equation can be transformed into the well-known 1-dimensional logistic map, which is based on a 2-dimensional map suggesting spatial replacement dynamics of city development. The 2-dimensional recurrence relations can be employed to generate the nonlinear dynamical behaviors such as bifurcation and chaos. A discovery is thus made in this article that, for the fractal dimension growth following the logistic curve, the normalized dimension value is the ratio of space filling. If the rate of spatial replacement (urban growth) is too high, the periodic oscillations and chaos will arise. The spatial replacement dynamics can be extended to general replacement dynamics, and bifurcation and chaos mirror a process of complex replacement.

Managing distributed dynamic systems with spatial grasp technology

CERN Document Server

Sapaty, Peter Simon

2017-01-01

The book describes a novel ideology and supporting information technology for integral management of both civil and defence-orientated large, distributed dynamic systems. The approach is based on a high-level Spatial Grasp Language, SGL, expressing solutions in physical, virtual, executive and combined environments in the form of active self-evolving and self-propagating patterns spatially matching the systems to be created, modified and controlled. The communicating interpreters of SGL can be installed in key system points, which may be in large numbers (up to millions and billions) and represent equipped humans, robots, laptops, smartphones, smart sensors, etc. Operating under gestalt-inspired scenarios in SGL initially injected from any points, these systems can be effectively converted into goal-driven spatial machines (rather than computers as dealing with physical matter too) capable of responding to numerous challenges caused by growing world dynamics in the 21st century. Including numerous practical e...

Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of High-Resolution Animal Networks: What Can We Learn from Domestic Animals?

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Shi Chen

Full Text Available Animal social network is the key to understand many ecological and epidemiological processes. We used real-time location system (RTLS to accurately track cattle position, analyze their proximity networks, and tested the hypothesis of temporal stationarity and spatial homogeneity in these networks during different daily time periods and in different areas of the pen. The network structure was analyzed using global network characteristics (network density, subgroup clustering (modularity, triadic property (transitivity, and dyadic interactions (correlation coefficient from a quadratic assignment procedure at hourly level. We demonstrated substantial spatial-temporal heterogeneity in these networks and potential link between indirect animal-environment contact and direct animal-animal contact. But such heterogeneity diminished if data were collected at lower spatial (aggregated at entire pen level or temporal (aggregated at daily level resolution. The network structure (described by the characteristics such as density, modularity, transitivity, etc. also changed substantially at different time and locations. There were certain time (feeding and location (hay that the proximity network structures were more consistent based on the dyadic interaction analysis. These results reveal new insights for animal network structure and spatial-temporal dynamics, provide more accurate descriptions of animal social networks, and allow more accurate modeling of multiple (both direct and indirect disease transmission pathways.

Electron beam dynamics in an ultrafast transmission electron microscope with Wehnelt electrode.

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Bücker, K; Picher, M; Crégut, O; LaGrange, T; Reed, B W; Park, S T; Masiel, D J; Banhart, F

2016-12-01

High temporal resolution transmission electron microscopy techniques have shown significant progress in recent years. Using photoelectron pulses induced by ultrashort laser pulses on the cathode, these methods can probe ultrafast materials processes and have revealed numerous dynamic phenomena at the nanoscale. Most recently, the technique has been implemented in standard thermionic electron microscopes that provide a flexible platform for studying material's dynamics over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, the electron pulses in such an ultrafast transmission electron microscope are characterized in detail. The microscope is based on a thermionic gun with a Wehnelt electrode and is operated in a stroboscopic photoelectron mode. It is shown that the Wehnelt bias has a decisive influence on the temporal and energy spread of the picosecond electron pulses. Depending on the shape of the cathode and the cathode-Wehnelt distance, different emission patterns with different pulse parameters are obtained. The energy spread of the pulses is determined by space charge and Boersch effects, given by the number of electrons in a pulse. However, filtering effects due to the chromatic aberrations of the Wehnelt electrode allow the extraction of pulses with narrow energy spreads. The temporal spread is governed by electron trajectories of different length and in different electrostatic potentials. High temporal resolution is obtained by excluding shank emission from the cathode and aberration-induced halos in the emission pattern. By varying the cathode-Wehnelt gap, the Wehnelt bias, and the number of photoelectrons in a pulse, tradeoffs between energy and temporal resolution as well as beam intensity can be made as needed for experiments. Based on the characterization of the electron pulses, the optimal conditions for the operation of ultrafast TEMs with thermionic gun assembly are elaborated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transmission dynamics of malaria in Nigeria. | Okwa | Annals of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Two of the problems of malaria parasite vector control in Nigeria are the diversity of Anopheline vectors and large size of the country. Anopheline distribution and transmission dynamics of malaria were therefore compared between four ecotypes in Nigeria during the rainy season. Methods: Polymerase chain ...

Between-group transmission dynamics of the swallow bug, Oeciacus vicarius.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Charles R; Brown, Mary Bomberger

2005-06-01

The parasitic cimicid swallow bug, Oeciacus vicarius, is the principal invertebrate vector for Buggy Creek virus (BCRV) and has also been associated with Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus. To help understand the spread of this vector, we experimentally measured the transmission of O. vicarius between groups (colonies) of its main host, the cliff swallow (Petrochelidonpyrrhonota), in the field. Transmission of bugs between colonies varied significantly with year, size of the colony, and week within the season. Bug immigration into sites tended to peak in mid-summer. Swallow nests in larger colonies had more consistent rates of bug introduction than did nests in small colonies, but within a colony a given nest's weekly immigrant-bug count varied widely across the season. Transmission of O. vicarius between host social groups follows broadly predictable seasonal patterns, but there is nevertheless temporal and spatial heterogeneity in bug transmission. By understanding how long-distance movement by this vector varies in time and space, we can better predict where and when BCRV epizootics may occur.

Simulation of Dynamic Behavior of the Flexible Wheel of the Double Harmonic Gear Transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Draghiţa Ianici

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the construction and functioning of a new type the harmonic gear transmission named double harmonic gear transmission, which can be used in the construction drives of industrial robots. In the second part of this paper is presented the dynamic analysis of the double harmonic gear transmission, which is based on the results of the numerical simulations of the flexible wheel in case of its deformation with a mechanical wave generator with disc cam. Investigation of dynamic behavior of the flexible toothed wheel was performed by using the finite element method in SolidWorks Simulation software.

Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

Science.gov (United States)

Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

2018-02-01

Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994-2006.

Science.gov (United States)

Chowell, G; Torre, C A; Munayco-Escate, C; Suárez-Ognio, L; López-Cruz, R; Hyman, J M; Castillo-Chavez, C

2008-12-01

SUMMARYThe weekly number of dengue cases in Peru, South America, stratified by province for the period 1994-2006 were analysed in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data. Estimates of the reproduction number, moderately correlated with population size (Spearman rho=0.28, P=0.03), had a median of 1.76 (IQR 0.83-4.46). The distributions of dengue attack rates and epidemic durations follow power-law (Pareto) distributions (coefficient of determination >85%, Pjungle areas. Our findings suggest a hierarchy of transmission events during the large 2000-2001 epidemic from large to small population areas when serotypes DEN-3 and DEN-4 were first identified (Spearman rho=-0.43, P=0.03). The need for spatial and temporal dengue epidemic data with a high degree of resolution not only increases our understanding of the dynamics of dengue but will also generate new hypotheses and provide a platform for testing innovative control policies.

SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF CEARÁ’S COCONUT PRODUCTION

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Leandro Vieira Cavalcante

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this article is to discuss the spatial dynamics of coconut production in the State of Ceará (Brazil while highlighting the spatialization of this process and the characterization of the coconut production spaces in Ceará’s territory. It also debates the effect agricultural activity has on the space production process, empirically evidenced from the coconut cultivation analysis.

X-ray transmission movies of spontaneous dynamic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smilowitz, L.; Henson, B. F.; Holmes, M.; Novak, A.; Oschwald, D.; Dolgonos, P.; Qualls, B.

2014-01-01

We describe a new x-ray radiographic imaging system which allows for continuous x-ray transmission imaging of spontaneous dynamic events. We demonstrate this method on thermal explosions in three plastic bonded formulations of the energetic material octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine. We describe the x-ray imaging system and triggering developed to enable the continuous imaging of a thermal explosion

Malaria infection has spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal heterogeneity in unstable malaria transmission areas in northwest Ethiopia.

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Kassahun Alemu

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria elimination requires successful nationwide control efforts. Detecting the spatiotemporal distribution and mapping high-risk areas are useful to effectively target pockets of malaria endemic regions for interventions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to identify patterns of malaria distribution by space and time in unstable malaria transmission areas in northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: Data were retrieved from the monthly reports stored in the district malaria offices for the period between 2003 and 2012. Eighteen districts in the highland and fringe malaria areas were included and geo-coded for the purpose of this study. The spatial data were created in ArcGIS10 for each district. The Poisson model was used by applying Kulldorff methods using the SaTScan™ software to analyze the purely temporal, spatial and space-time clusters of malaria at a district levels. RESULTS: The study revealed that malaria case distribution has spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal heterogeneity in unstable transmission areas. Most likely spatial malaria clusters were detected at Dera, Fogera, Farta, Libokemkem and Misrak Este districts (LLR =197764.1, p<0.001. Significant spatiotemporal malaria clusters were detected at Dera, Fogera, Farta, Libokemkem and Misrak Este districts (LLR=197764.1, p<0.001 between 2003/1/1 and 2012/12/31. A temporal scan statistics identified two high risk periods from 2009/1/1 to 2010/12/31 (LLR=72490.5, p<0.001 and from 2003/1/1 to 2005/12/31 (LLR=26988.7, p<0.001. CONCLUSION: In unstable malaria transmission areas, detecting and considering the spatiotemporal heterogeneity would be useful to strengthen malaria control efforts and ultimately achieve elimination.

Dynamics of Pertussis Transmission in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Magpantay, F. M. G.; Rohani, P.

2015-01-01

Past patterns of infectious disease transmission set the stage on which modern epidemiologic dynamics are played out. Here, we present a comprehensive account of pertussis (whooping cough) transmission in the United States during the early vaccine era. We analyzed recently digitized weekly incidence records from Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports from 1938 to 1955, when the whole-cell pertussis vaccine was rolled out, and related them to contemporary patterns of transmission and resurgence documented in monthly incidence data from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. We found that, during the early vaccine era, pertussis epidemics in US states could be categorized as 1) annual, 2) initially annual and later multiennial, or 3) multiennial. States with predominantly annual cycles tended to have higher per capita birth rates, more household crowding, more children per family, and lower rates of school attendance than the states with multiennial cycles. Additionally, states that exhibited annual epidemics during 1938–1955 have had the highest recent (2001–2010) incidence, while those states that transitioned from annual cycles to multiennial cycles have had relatively low recent incidence. Our study provides an extensive picture of pertussis epidemiology in the United States dating back to the onset of vaccination, a back-story that could aid epidemiologists in understanding contemporary transmission patterns. PMID:26022662

Identifying landscape features associated with Rift Valley fever virus transmission, Ferlo region, Senegal, using very high spatial resolution satellite imagery.

Science.gov (United States)

Soti, Valérie; Chevalier, Véronique; Maura, Jonathan; Bégué, Agnès; Lelong, Camille; Lancelot, Renaud; Thiongane, Yaya; Tran, Annelise

2013-03-01

Dynamics of most of vector-borne diseases are strongly linked to global and local environmental changes. Landscape changes are indicators of human activities or natural processes that are likely to modify the ecology of the diseases. Here, a landscape approach developed at a local scale is proposed for extracting mosquito favourable biotopes, and for testing ecological parameters when identifying risk areas of Rift Valley fever (RVF) transmission. The study was carried out around Barkedji village, Ferlo region, Senegal. In order to test whether pond characteristics may influence the density and the dispersal behaviour of RVF vectors, and thus the spatial variation in RVFV transmission, we used a very high spatial resolution remote sensing image (2.4 m resolution) provided by the Quickbird sensor to produce a detailed land-cover map of the study area. Based on knowledge of vector and disease ecology, seven landscape attributes were defined at the pond level and computed from the land-cover map. Then, the relationships between landscape attributes and RVF serologic incidence rates in small ruminants were analyzed through a beta-binomial regression. Finally, the best statistical model according to the Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small samples (AICC), was used to map areas at risk for RVF. Among the derived landscape variables, the vegetation density index (VDI) computed within a 500 m buffer around ponds was positively correlated with serologic incidence (premote sensing data for identifying environmental risk factors and mapping RVF risk areas at a local scale.

Urban Transmission of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Argentina: Spatial Analysis Study

Science.gov (United States)

Gil, José F.; Nasser, Julio R.; Cajal, Silvana P.; Juarez, Marisa; Acosta, Norma; Cimino, Rubén O.; Diosque, Patricio; Krolewiecki, Alejandro J.

2010-01-01

We used kernel density and scan statistics to examine the spatial distribution of cases of pediatric and adult American cutaneous leishmaniasis in an urban disease-endemic area in Salta Province, Argentina. Spatial analysis was used for the whole population and stratified by women > 14 years of age (n = 159), men > 14 years of age (n = 667), and children < 15 years of age (n = 213). Although kernel density for adults encompassed nearly the entire city, distribution in children was most prevalent in the peripheral areas of the city. Scan statistic analysis for adult males, adult females, and children found 11, 2, and 8 clusters, respectively. Clusters for children had the highest odds ratios (P < 0.05) and were located in proximity of plantations and secondary vegetation. The data from this study provide further evidence of the potential urban transmission of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in northern Argentina. PMID:20207869

Extinction threshold for spatial forest dynamics with height structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Domingo, Josep L; Saldaña, Joan

2011-05-07

We present a pair-approximation model for spatial forest dynamics defined on a regular lattice. The model assumes three possible states for a lattice site: empty (gap site), occupied by an immature tree, and occupied by a mature tree, and considers three nonlinearities in the dynamics associated to the processes of light interference, gap expansion, and recruitment. We obtain an expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) which, in contrast to the one obtained under the mean-field approach, uses information about the spatial arrangement of individuals close to extinction. Moreover, we analyze the corresponding survival-extinction transition of the forest and the spatial correlations among gaps, immature and mature trees close to this critical point. Predictions of the pair-approximation model are compared with those of a cellular automaton. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk

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Edward M. Hill

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human–animal interface. We apply a modelling framework to H5N1 epidemics in the Dhaka region of Bangladesh, occurring from 2007 onwards, that resulted in large outbreaks in the poultry sector and a limited number of confirmed human cases. This model consisted of separate poultry transmission and zoonotic transmission components. Utilising poultry farm spatial and population information a set of competing nested models of varying complexity were fitted to the observed case data, with parameter inference carried out using Bayesian methodology and goodness-of-fit verified by stochastic simulations. For the poultry transmission component, successfully identifying a model of minimal complexity, which enabled the accurate prediction of the size and spatial distribution of cases in H5N1 outbreaks, was found to be dependent on the administration level being analysed. A consistent outcome of non-optimal reporting of infected premises materialised in each poultry epidemic of interest, though across the outbreaks analysed there were substantial differences in the estimated transmission parameters. The zoonotic transmission component found the main contributor to spillover transmission of H5N1 in Bangladesh was found to differ from one poultry epidemic to another. We conclude by discussing possible explanations for

Dynamic characteristic analysis of mother to child transmission of HIV in India

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A. S. Kadi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, a mathematical model of HIV/AIDS mother to child transmission to analyze the effectiveness of prevention of HIV mother to child transmission programmes has been presented. The result reveals that prevention of HIV mother to child transmission programmes focusing only on biological transmission cannot control the increase of the HIV mother to child transmission in India. Hence, to control the HIV MTCT epidemic in India, in spite of strengthening the PMTCT programmes to reduce transmission rates, effective measures should be taken to prevent HIV infection in women of reproductive ages. Since the overall HIV MTCT epidemic is dependent on the HIV incidence in women of reproductive age group, the integration of pediatric HIV model with a detailed model of adult HIV would be investigated in future studies in order to model these dynamics more accurately.

Generation and dynamics of quadratic birefringent spatial gap solitons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anghel-Vasilescu, P.; Dorignac, J.; Geniet, F.; Leon, J.; Taki, A.

2011-01-01

A method is proposed to generate and study the dynamics of spatial light solitons in a birefringent medium with quadratic nonlinearity. Although no analytical expression for propagating solitons has been obtained, our numerical simulations show the existence of stable localized spatial solitons in the frequency forbidden band gap of the medium. The dynamics of these objects is quite rich and manifests for instance elastic reflections, or inelastic collisions where two solitons merge and propagate as a single solitary wave. We derive the dynamics of the slowly varying envelopes of the three fields (second harmonic pump and two-component signal) and study this new system theoretically. We show that it does present a threshold for nonlinear supratransmission that can be calculated from a series expansion approach with a very high accuracy. Specific physical implications of our theoretical predictions are illustrated on LiGaTe 2 (LGT) crystals. Once irradiated by a cw laser beam of 10 μm wavelength, at an incidence beyond the extinction angle, such crystals will transmit light, in the form of spatial solitons generated in the nonlinear regime above the nonlinear supratransmission threshold.

Dynamics of tuberculosis transmission with exogenous reinfections and endogenous reactivation

Science.gov (United States)

Khajanchi, Subhas; Das, Dhiraj Kumar; Kar, Tapan Kumar

2018-05-01

We propose and analyze a mathematical model for tuberculosis (TB) transmission to study the role of exogenous reinfection and endogenous reactivation. The model exhibits two equilibria: a disease free and an endemic equilibria. We observe that the TB model exhibits transcritical bifurcation when basic reproduction number R0 = 1. Our results demonstrate that the disease transmission rate β and exogenous reinfection rate α plays an important role to change the qualitative dynamics of TB. The disease transmission rate β give rises to the possibility of backward bifurcation for R0 < 1, and hence the existence of multiple endemic equilibria one of which is stable and another one is unstable. Our analysis suggests that R0 < 1 may not be sufficient to completely eliminate the disease. We also investigate that our TB transmission model undergoes Hopf-bifurcation with respect to the contact rate β and the exogenous reinfection rate α. We conducted some numerical simulations to support our analytical findings.

Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.

Science.gov (United States)

Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P

2015-03-01

System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.

Spatial effect on stochastic dynamics of bistable evolutionary games

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

So, Kohaku H Z; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Kato, Takeo

2014-01-01

We consider the lifetimes of metastable states in bistable evolutionary games (coordination games), and examine how they are affected by spatial structure. A semiclassical approximation based on a path integral method is applied to stochastic evolutionary game dynamics with and without spatial structure, and the lifetimes of the metastable states are evaluated. It is shown that the population dependence of the lifetimes is qualitatively different in these two models. Our result indicates that spatial structure can accelerate the transitions between metastable states. (paper)

The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Yunhwan; Lee, Sunmi; Chu, Chaeshin; Choe, Seoyun; Hong, Saeme; Shin, Youngseo

2016-02-01

The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates. Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions. Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions. It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.

Chancroid transmission dynamics: a mathematical modeling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhunu, C P; Mushayabasa, S

2011-12-01

Mathematical models have long been used to better understand disease transmission dynamics and how to effectively control them. Here, a chancroid infection model is presented and analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. High levels of treatment are shown to reduce the reproduction number suggesting that treatment has the potential to control chancroid infections in any given community. This result is also supported by numerical simulations which show a decline in chancroid cases whenever the reproduction number is less than unity.

Highly dynamic animal contact network and implications on disease transmission

OpenAIRE

Shi Chen; Brad J. White; Michael W. Sanderson; David E. Amrine; Amiyaal Ilany; Cristina Lanzas

2014-01-01

Contact patterns among hosts are considered as one of the most critical factors contributing to unequal pathogen transmission. Consequently, networks have been widely applied in infectious disease modeling. However most studies assume static network structure due to lack of accurate observation and appropriate analytic tools. In this study we used high temporal and spatial resolution animal position data to construct a high-resolution contact network relevant to infectious disease transmissio...

Frequency-Dependent Disease Transmission and the Dynamics of the Silene-Ustilago Host-Pathogen System

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thrall, P.H.; Biere, A.; Uyenoyama, M.K.

1995-01-01

Models incorporating density-dependent disease transmission functions generally provide a good fit for airborne and directly transmitted bacterial or viral diseases. However, the transmission dynamics of sexually transmitted and vector-borne diseases are likely to be frequency- rather than density-

Spatial Dynamics of Indoor Radio Wideband Channels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hayar Aawatif

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The multipath components of superwideband (2–17.2 GHz nonline-of-sight channel responses measured inside several buildings are stable along sections that are 27 cm long on average with a standard deviation of 16 cm. The stability regions of multipath components have an approximately log-normal histogram. An analysis of measured channels that explicitly includes finite spatial areas of visibility of the multipath components is superior to the classic analysis that attributes spatial dynamics to interference of the multipath. The spatial stability of measured responses, that is, the size of the typical area of visibility of each multipath component, decreases as the carrier frequency increases but does not depend on bandwidth. The results offer insight into the nature of the diffuse part of the radio channel.

Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

2013-01-01

Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria

Optical wall dynamics induced by coexistence of monostable and bistable spatial regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Odent, V; Louvergneaux, E; Clerc, M G; Andrade-Silva, I

2016-11-01

When nonequilibrium extended homogeneous systems exhibit multistability, it leads to the presence of domain walls between the existing equilibria. Depending on the stability of the steady states, the dynamics differs. Here, we consider the interface dynamics in the case of a spatially inhomogeneous system, namely, an optical system where the control parameter is spatially Gaussian. Then interfaces connect the monostable and the bistable nonuniform states that are associated with two distinct spatial regions. The coexistence of these two regions of different stability induces relaxation dynamics and the propagation of a wall with a time-dependent speed. We emphasize analytically these two dynamical behaviors using a generic bistable model. Experimentally, an inhomogeneous Gaussian light beam traveling through either a dye-doped liquid crystal cell or a Kerr cavity depicts these behaviors, in agreement with the theoretical predictions.

Space- and time-dependent quantum dynamics of spatially indirect excitons in semiconductor heterostructures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grasselli, Federico, E-mail: federico.grasselli@unimore.it; Goldoni, Guido, E-mail: guido.goldoni@unimore.it [Department of Physics, Informatics and Mathematics, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena (Italy); CNR-NANO S3, Institute for Nanoscience, Via Campi 213/a, 41125 Modena (Italy); Bertoni, Andrea, E-mail: andrea.bertoni@nano.cnr.it [CNR-NANO S3, Institute for Nanoscience, Via Campi 213/a, 41125 Modena (Italy)

2015-01-21

We study the unitary propagation of a two-particle one-dimensional Schrödinger equation by means of the Split-Step Fourier method, to study the coherent evolution of a spatially indirect exciton (IX) in semiconductor heterostructures. The mutual Coulomb interaction of the electron-hole pair and the electrostatic potentials generated by external gates and acting on the two particles separately are taken into account exactly in the two-particle dynamics. As relevant examples, step/downhill and barrier/well potential profiles are considered. The space- and time-dependent evolutions during the scattering event as well as the asymptotic time behavior are analyzed. For typical parameters of GaAs-based devices, the transmission or reflection of the pair turns out to be a complex two-particle process, due to comparable and competing Coulomb, electrostatic, and kinetic energy scales. Depending on the intensity and anisotropy of the scattering potentials, the quantum evolution may result in excitation of the IX internal degrees of freedom, dissociation of the pair, or transmission in small periodic IX wavepackets due to dwelling of one particle in the barrier region. We discuss the occurrence of each process in the full parameter space of the scattering potentials and the relevance of our results for current excitronic technologies.

Accelerator-based single-shot ultrafast transmission electron microscope with picosecond temporal resolution and nanometer spatial resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Xiang, D.; Fu, F.; Zhang, J.; Huang, X.; Wang, L.; Wang, X.; Wan, W.

2014-09-01

We present feasibility study of an accelerator-based ultrafast transmission electron microscope (u-TEM) capable of producing a full field image in a single-shot with simultaneous picosecond temporal resolution and nanometer spatial resolution. We study key physics related to performance of u-TEMs and discuss major challenges as well as possible solutions for practical realization of u-TEMs. The feasibility of u-TEMs is confirmed through simulations using realistic electron beam parameters. We anticipate that u-TEMs with a product of temporal and spatial resolution beyond 10-19 ms will open up new opportunities in probing matter at ultrafast temporal and ultrasmall spatial scales.

Role of density modulation in the spatially resolved dynamics of strongly confined liquids.

Science.gov (United States)

Saw, Shibu; Dasgupta, Chandan

2016-08-07

Confinement by walls usually produces a strong modulation in the density of dense liquids near the walls. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we examine the effects of the density modulation on the spatially resolved dynamics of a liquid confined between two parallel walls, using a resolution of a fraction of the interparticle distance in the liquid. The local dynamics is quantified by the relaxation time associated with the temporal autocorrelation function of the local density. We find that this local relaxation time varies in phase with the density modulation. The amplitude of the spatial modulation of the relaxation time can be quite large, depending on the characteristics of the wall and thermodynamic parameters of the liquid. To disentangle the effects of confinement and density modulation on the spatially resolved dynamics, we compare the dynamics of a confined liquid with that of an unconfined one in which a similar density modulation is induced by an external potential. We find several differences indicating that density modulation alone cannot account for all the features seen in the spatially resolved dynamics of confined liquids. We also examine how the dynamics near a wall depends on the separation between the two walls and show that the features seen in our simulations persist in the limit of large wall separation.

Image transfer with spatial coherence for aberration corrected transmission electron microscopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosokawa, Fumio; Sawada, Hidetaka; Shinkawa, Takao; Sannomiya, Takumi

2016-01-01

The formula of spatial coherence involving an aberration up to six-fold astigmatism is derived for aberration-corrected transmission electron microscopy. Transfer functions for linear imaging are calculated using the newly derived formula with several residual aberrations. Depending on the symmetry and origin of an aberration, the calculated transfer function shows characteristic symmetries. The aberrations that originate from the field’s components, having uniformity along the z direction, namely, the n-fold astigmatism, show rotational symmetric damping of the coherence. The aberrations that originate from the field’s derivatives with respect to z, such as coma, star, and three lobe, show non-rotational symmetric damping. It is confirmed that the odd-symmetric wave aberrations have influences on the attenuation of an image via spatial coherence. Examples of image simulations of haemoglobin and Si [211] are shown by using the spatial coherence for an aberration-corrected electron microscope. - Highlights: • The formula of partial coherence for aberration corrected TEM is derived. • Transfer functions are calculated with several residual aberrations. • The calculated transfer function shows the characteristic damping. • The odd-symmetric wave aberrations can cause the attenuation of image via coherence. • The examples of aberration corrected TEM image simulations are shown.

Image transfer with spatial coherence for aberration corrected transmission electron microscopes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hosokawa, Fumio, E-mail: hosokawa@bio-net.co.jp [BioNet Ltd., 2-3-28 Nishikityo, Tachikwa, Tokyo (Japan); Tokyo Institute of Technology, 4259 Nagatsuta, Midoriku, Yokohama 226-8503 (Japan); Sawada, Hidetaka [JEOL (UK) Ltd., JEOL House, Silver Court, Watchmead, Welwyn Garden City, Herts AL7 1LT (United Kingdom); Shinkawa, Takao [BioNet Ltd., 2-3-28 Nishikityo, Tachikwa, Tokyo (Japan); Sannomiya, Takumi [Tokyo Institute of Technology, 4259 Nagatsuta, Midoriku, Yokohama 226-8503 (Japan)

2016-08-15

The formula of spatial coherence involving an aberration up to six-fold astigmatism is derived for aberration-corrected transmission electron microscopy. Transfer functions for linear imaging are calculated using the newly derived formula with several residual aberrations. Depending on the symmetry and origin of an aberration, the calculated transfer function shows characteristic symmetries. The aberrations that originate from the field’s components, having uniformity along the z direction, namely, the n-fold astigmatism, show rotational symmetric damping of the coherence. The aberrations that originate from the field’s derivatives with respect to z, such as coma, star, and three lobe, show non-rotational symmetric damping. It is confirmed that the odd-symmetric wave aberrations have influences on the attenuation of an image via spatial coherence. Examples of image simulations of haemoglobin and Si [211] are shown by using the spatial coherence for an aberration-corrected electron microscope. - Highlights: • The formula of partial coherence for aberration corrected TEM is derived. • Transfer functions are calculated with several residual aberrations. • The calculated transfer function shows the characteristic damping. • The odd-symmetric wave aberrations can cause the attenuation of image via coherence. • The examples of aberration corrected TEM image simulations are shown.

Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Bourouiba, Lydia; Gourley, Stephen A.; Liu, Rongsong; Takekawa, John Y.; Wu, Jianhong; Chen, Dongmei; Moulin, Bernard; Wu, Jianhong

2015-01-01

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

The Influence of Spatial Configuration of Residential Area and Vector Populations on Dengue Incidence Patterns in an Individual-Level Transmission Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Jeon-Young; Aldstadt, Jared

2017-07-15

Dengue is a mosquito-borne infectious disease that is endemic in tropical and subtropical countries. Many individual-level simulation models have been developed to test hypotheses about dengue virus transmission. Often these efforts assume that human host and mosquito vector populations are randomly or uniformly distributed in the environment. Although, the movement of mosquitoes is affected by spatial configuration of buildings and mosquito populations are highly clustered in key buildings, little research has focused on the influence of the local built environment in dengue transmission models. We developed an agent-based model of dengue transmission in a village setting to test the importance of using realistic environments in individual-level models of dengue transmission. The results from one-way ANOVA analysis of simulations indicated that the differences between scenarios in terms of infection rates as well as serotype-specific dominance are statistically significant. Specifically, the infection rates in scenarios of a realistic environment are more variable than those of a synthetic spatial configuration. With respect to dengue serotype-specific cases, we found that a single dengue serotype is more often dominant in realistic environments than in synthetic environments. An agent-based approach allows a fine-scaled analysis of simulated dengue incidence patterns. The results provide a better understanding of the influence of spatial heterogeneity on dengue transmission at a local scale.

The Economics of Storage, Transmission and Drought: Integrating Variable Wind Power into Spatially Separated Electricity Grids

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scora, H.; Sopinka, A.; Kooten, van G.C.

2012-01-01

To mitigate the high variability of wind and make it a more viable renewable energy source, observers recommend greater integration of spatially-separated electrical grids, with high transmission lines linking load centers, scattered wind farms and hydro storage sites. In this study, we examine the

Transmission-lattice based geometric phase analysis for evaluating the dynamic deformation of a liquid surface.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Wenxiong; Huang, Xianfu; Liu, Zhanwei

2014-05-05

Quantitatively measuring a dynamic liquid surface often presents a challenge due to high transparency, fluidity and specular reflection. Here, a novel Transmission-Lattice based Geometric Phase Analysis (TLGPA) method is introduced. In this method, a special lattice is placed underneath a liquid to be tested and, when viewed from above, the phase of the transmission-lattice image is modulated by the deformation of the liquid surface. Combining this with multi-directional Newton iteration algorithms, the dynamic deformation field of the liquid surface can be calculated from the phase variation of a series of transmission-lattice images captured at different moments. The developed method has the advantage of strong self-adaption ability to initial lattice rotational errors and this is discussed in detail. Dynamic 3D ripples formation and propagation was investigated and the results obtained demonstrated the feasibility of the method.

Investigation of microstructure in additive manufactured Inconel 625 by spatially resolved neutron transmission spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Tremsin, Anton S.; Gao, Yan; Dial, Laura C.; Grazzi, Francesco; Shinohara, Takenao

2016-01-01

Non-destructive testing techniques based on neutron imaging and diffraction can provide information on the internal structure of relatively thick metal samples (up to several cm), which are opaque to other conventional non-destructive methods. Spatially resolved neutron transmission spectroscopy is an extension of traditional neutron radiography, where multiple images are acquired simultaneously, each corresponding to a narrow range of energy. The analysis of transmission spectra enables studies of bulk microstructures at the spatial resolution comparable to the detector pixel. In this study we demonstrate the possibility of imaging (with 100 μm resolution) distribution of some microstructure properties, such as residual strain, texture, voids and impurities in Inconel 625 samples manufactured with an additive manufacturing method called direct metal laser melting (DMLM). Although this imaging technique can be implemented only in a few large-scale facilities, it can be a valuable tool for optimization of additive manufacturing techniques and materials and for correlating bulk microstructure properties to manufacturing process parameters. In addition, the experimental strain distribution can help validate finite element models which many industries use to predict the residual stress distributions in additive manufactured components.

The primary case is not enough: Variation among individuals, groups and social networks modify bacterial transmission dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Keiser, Carl N; Pinter-Wollman, Noa; Ziemba, Michael J; Kothamasu, Krishna S; Pruitt, Jonathan N

2018-03-01

The traits of the primary case of an infectious disease outbreak, and the circumstances for their aetiology, potentially influence the trajectory of transmission dynamics. However, these dynamics likely also depend on the traits of the individuals with whom the primary case interacts. We used the social spider Stegodyphus dumicola to test how the traits of the primary case, group phenotypic composition and group size interact to facilitate the transmission of a GFP-labelled cuticular bacterium. We also compared bacterial transmission across experimentally generated "daisy-chain" vs. "star" networks of social interactions. Finally, we compared social network structure across groups of different sizes. Groups of 10 spiders experienced more bacterial transmission events compared to groups of 30 spiders, regardless of groups' behavioural composition. Groups containing only one bold spider experienced the lowest levels of bacterial transmission regardless of group size. We found no evidence for the traits of the primary case influencing any transmission dynamics. In a second experiment, bacteria were transmitted to more individuals in experimentally induced star networks than in daisy-chains, on which transmission never exceeded three steps. In both experimental network types, transmission success depended jointly on the behavioural traits of the interacting individuals; however, the behavioural traits of the primary case were only important for transmission on star networks. Larger social groups exhibited lower interaction density (i.e. had a low ratio of observed to possible connections) and were more modular, i.e. they had more connections between nodes within a subgroup and fewer connections across subgroups. Thus, larger groups may restrict transmission by forming fewer interactions and by isolating subgroups that interacted with the primary case. These findings suggest that accounting for the traits of single exposed hosts has less power in predicting transmission

Optimal estimation of spatially variable recharge and transmissivity fields under steady-state groundwater flow. Part 2. Case study

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, Wendy D.; Neff, Christina R.

1994-05-01

The first-order analytical solution of the inverse problem for estimating spatially variable recharge and transmissivity under steady-state groundwater flow, developed in Part 1 is applied to the Upper Floridan Aquifer in NE Florida. Parameters characterizing the statistical structure of the log-transmissivity and head fields are estimated from 152 measurements of transmissivity and 146 measurements of hydraulic head available in the study region. Optimal estimates of the recharge, transmissivity and head fields are produced throughout the study region by conditioning on the nearest 10 available transmissivity measurements and the nearest 10 available head measurements. Head observations are shown to provide valuable information for estimating both the transmissivity and the recharge fields. Accurate numerical groundwater model predictions of the aquifer flow system are obtained using the optimal transmissivity and recharge fields as input parameters, and the optimal head field to define boundary conditions. For this case study, both the transmissivity field and the uncertainty of the transmissivity field prediction are poorly estimated, when the effects of random recharge are neglected.

Temporal dynamics of divided spatial attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Itthipuripat, Sirawaj; Garcia, Javier O; Serences, John T

2013-05-01

In naturalistic settings, observers often have to monitor multiple objects dispersed throughout the visual scene. However, the degree to which spatial attention can be divided across spatially noncontiguous objects has long been debated, particularly when those objects are in close proximity. Moreover, the temporal dynamics of divided attention are unclear: is the process of dividing spatial attention gradual and continuous, or does it onset in a discrete manner? To address these issues, we recorded steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEPs) as subjects covertly monitored two flickering targets while ignoring an intervening distractor that flickered at a different frequency. All three stimuli were clustered within either the lower left or the lower right quadrant, and our dependent measure was SSVEP power at the target and distractor frequencies measured over time. In two experiments, we observed a temporally discrete increase in power for target- vs. distractor-evoked SSVEPs extending from ∼350 to 150 ms prior to correct (but not incorrect) responses. The divergence in SSVEP power immediately prior to a correct response suggests that spatial attention can be divided across noncontiguous locations, even when the targets are closely spaced within a single quadrant. In addition, the division of spatial attention appears to be relatively discrete, as opposed to slow and continuous. Finally, the predictive relationship between SSVEP power and behavior demonstrates that these neurophysiological measures of divided attention are meaningfully related to cognitive function.

Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmud, A. S.; Metcalf, C. J. E.; Grenfell, B. T.

2018-01-01

The seasonality and periodicity of infections, and the mechanisms underlying observed dynamics, can have implications for control efforts. This is particularly true for acute childhood infections. Among these, the dynamics of measles is the best understood and has been extensively studied, most notably in the UK prior to the start of vaccination. Less is known about the dynamics of other childhood diseases, particularly outside Europe and the US. In this paper, we leverage a unique dataset to examine the epidemiology of six childhood infections - measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, scarlet fever and pertussis - across 32 states in Mexico from 1985 to 2007. This dataset provides us with a spatiotemporal probe into the dynamics of six common childhood infections, and allows us to compare them in the same setting over the same time period. We examine three key epidemiological characteristics of these infections – the age profile of infections, spatiotemporal dynamics, and seasonality in transmission - and compare with predictions from existing theory and past findings. Our analysis reveals interesting epidemiological differences between the six pathogens, and variations across space. We find signatures of term time forcing (reduced transmission during the summer) for measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, and scarlet fever; for pertussis, a lack of term time forcing could not be rejected. PMID:27873563

Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

Science.gov (United States)

Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

2017-05-01

Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery

Dynamic Model for the Z Accelerator Vacuum Section Based on Transmission Line Code%Dynamic Model for the Z Accelerator Vacuum Section Based on Transmission Line Code

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

呼义翔; 雷天时; 吴撼宇; 郭宁; 韩娟娟; 邱爱慈; 王亮平; 黄涛; 丛培天; 张信军; 李岩; 曾正中; 孙铁平

2011-01-01

The transmission-line-circuit model of the Z accelerator, developed originally by W. A. STYGAR, P. A. CORCORAN, et al., is revised. The revised model uses different calculations for the electron loss and flow impedance in the magnetically insulated transmission line system of the Z accelerator before and after magnetic insulation is established. By including electron pressure and zero electric field at the cathode, a closed set of equations is obtained at each time step, and dynamic shunt resistance （used to represent any electron loss to the anode） and flow impedance are solved, which have been incorporated into the transmission line code for simulations of the vacuum section in the Z accelerator. Finally, the results are discussed in comparison with earlier findings to show the effectiveness and limitations of the model.

Adaptive proxy map server for efficient vector spatial data rendering

Science.gov (United States)

Sayar, Ahmet

2013-01-01

The rapid transmission of vector map data over the Internet is becoming a bottleneck of spatial data delivery and visualization in web-based environment because of increasing data amount and limited network bandwidth. In order to improve both the transmission and rendering performances of vector spatial data over the Internet, we propose a proxy map server enabling parallel vector data fetching as well as caching to improve the performance of web-based map servers in a dynamic environment. Proxy map server is placed seamlessly anywhere between the client and the final services, intercepting users' requests. It employs an efficient parallelization technique based on spatial proximity and data density in case distributed replica exists for the same spatial data. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is proved at the end of the article by the application of creating map images enriched with earthquake seismic data records.

Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin

2018-03-25

Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life-history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco-evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within-individual and among-individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life-history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal-tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within-population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year-round residence, generating diverse forms of 'partial migration' spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year-round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio-temporal population dynamics, we define a 'partially migratory meta-population' system as a spatially structured set of locations that can

The influence of engine/transmission/governor on tilting proprotor aircraft dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, W.

1975-01-01

An analytical model is developed for the dynamics of a tilting proprotor aircraft engine and drive train, including a rotor speed governor and interconnect shaft. The dynamic stability of a proprotor and cantilever wing is calculated, including the engine-transmission-governor model. It is concluded that the rotor behaves much as if windmilling as far as its dynamic behavior is concerned, with some influence of the turboshaft engine inertia and damping. The interconnect shaft has a significant influence on the antisymmetric dynamics of proprotor aircraft. The proprotor aerodynamics model is extended to include reverse flow, and a refinement on the method used to calculate the kinematic pitch-bending coupling of the blade is developed.

Dynamics of Hippocampal Protein Expression During Long-term Spatial Memory Formation*

Science.gov (United States)

Borovok, Natalia; Nesher, Elimelech; Levin, Yishai; Reichenstein, Michal; Pinhasov, Albert

2016-01-01

Spatial memory depends on the hippocampus, which is particularly vulnerable to aging. This vulnerability has implications for the impairment of navigation capacities in older people, who may show a marked drop in performance of spatial tasks with advancing age. Contemporary understanding of long-term memory formation relies on molecular mechanisms underlying long-term synaptic plasticity. With memory acquisition, activity-dependent changes occurring in synapses initiate multiple signal transduction pathways enhancing protein turnover. This enhancement facilitates de novo synthesis of plasticity related proteins, crucial factors for establishing persistent long-term synaptic plasticity and forming memory engrams. Extensive studies have been performed to elucidate molecular mechanisms of memory traces formation; however, the identity of plasticity related proteins is still evasive. In this study, we investigated protein turnover in mouse hippocampus during long-term spatial memory formation using the reference memory version of radial arm maze (RAM) paradigm. We identified 1592 proteins, which exhibited a complex picture of expression changes during spatial memory formation. Variable linear decomposition reduced significantly data dimensionality and enriched three principal factors responsible for variance of memory-related protein levels at (1) the initial phase of memory acquisition (165 proteins), (2) during the steep learning improvement (148 proteins), and (3) the final phase of the learning curve (123 proteins). Gene ontology and signaling pathways analysis revealed a clear correlation between memory improvement and learning phase-curbed expression profiles of proteins belonging to specific functional categories. We found differential enrichment of (1) neurotrophic factors signaling pathways, proteins regulating synaptic transmission, and actin microfilament during the first day of the learning curve; (2) transcription and translation machinery, protein

Dynamics of Hippocampal Protein Expression During Long-term Spatial Memory Formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Borovok, Natalia; Nesher, Elimelech; Levin, Yishai; Reichenstein, Michal; Pinhasov, Albert; Michaelevski, Izhak

2016-02-01

Spatial memory depends on the hippocampus, which is particularly vulnerable to aging. This vulnerability has implications for the impairment of navigation capacities in older people, who may show a marked drop in performance of spatial tasks with advancing age. Contemporary understanding of long-term memory formation relies on molecular mechanisms underlying long-term synaptic plasticity. With memory acquisition, activity-dependent changes occurring in synapses initiate multiple signal transduction pathways enhancing protein turnover. This enhancement facilitates de novo synthesis of plasticity related proteins, crucial factors for establishing persistent long-term synaptic plasticity and forming memory engrams. Extensive studies have been performed to elucidate molecular mechanisms of memory traces formation; however, the identity of plasticity related proteins is still evasive. In this study, we investigated protein turnover in mouse hippocampus during long-term spatial memory formation using the reference memory version of radial arm maze (RAM) paradigm. We identified 1592 proteins, which exhibited a complex picture of expression changes during spatial memory formation. Variable linear decomposition reduced significantly data dimensionality and enriched three principal factors responsible for variance of memory-related protein levels at (1) the initial phase of memory acquisition (165 proteins), (2) during the steep learning improvement (148 proteins), and (3) the final phase of the learning curve (123 proteins). Gene ontology and signaling pathways analysis revealed a clear correlation between memory improvement and learning phase-curbed expression profiles of proteins belonging to specific functional categories. We found differential enrichment of (1) neurotrophic factors signaling pathways, proteins regulating synaptic transmission, and actin microfilament during the first day of the learning curve; (2) transcription and translation machinery, protein

Experimental investigation of alternative transmission functions: Quantitative evidence for the importance of nonlinear transmission dynamics in host-parasite systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Orlofske, Sarah A; Flaxman, Samuel M; Joseph, Maxwell B; Fenton, Andy; Melbourne, Brett A; Johnson, Pieter T J

2018-05-01

Understanding pathogen transmission is crucial for predicting and managing disease. Nonetheless, experimental comparisons of alternative functional forms of transmission remain rare, and those experiments that are conducted are often not designed to test the full range of possible forms. To differentiate among 10 candidate transmission functions, we used a novel experimental design in which we independently varied four factors-duration of exposure, numbers of parasites, numbers of hosts and parasite density-in laboratory infection experiments. We used interactions between amphibian hosts and trematode parasites as a model system and all candidate models incorporated parasite depletion. An additional manipulation involving anaesthesia addressed the effects of host behaviour on transmission form. Across all experiments, nonlinear transmission forms involving either a power law or a negative binomial function were the best-fitting models and consistently outperformed the linear density-dependent and density-independent functions. By testing previously published data for two other host-macroparasite systems, we also found support for the same nonlinear transmission forms. Although manipulations of parasite density are common in transmission studies, the comprehensive set of variables tested in our experiments revealed that variation in density alone was least likely to differentiate among competing transmission functions. Across host-pathogen systems, nonlinear functions may often more accurately represent transmission dynamics and thus provide more realistic predictions for infection. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Complex spatial dynamics of oncolytic viruses in vitro: mathematical and experimental approaches.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dominik Wodarz

Full Text Available Oncolytic viruses replicate selectively in tumor cells and can serve as targeted treatment agents. While promising results have been observed in clinical trials, consistent success of therapy remains elusive. The dynamics of virus spread through tumor cell populations has been studied both experimentally and computationally. However, a basic understanding of the principles underlying virus spread in spatially structured target cell populations has yet to be obtained. This paper studies such dynamics, using a newly constructed recombinant adenovirus type-5 (Ad5 that expresses enhanced jellyfish green fluorescent protein (EGFP, AdEGFPuci, and grows on human 293 embryonic kidney epithelial cells, allowing us to track cell numbers and spatial patterns over time. The cells are arranged in a two-dimensional setting and allow virus spread to occur only to target cells within the local neighborhood. Despite the simplicity of the setup, complex dynamics are observed. Experiments gave rise to three spatial patterns that we call "hollow ring structure", "filled ring structure", and "disperse pattern". An agent-based, stochastic computational model is used to simulate and interpret the experiments. The model can reproduce the experimentally observed patterns, and identifies key parameters that determine which pattern of virus growth arises. The model is further used to study the long-term outcome of the dynamics for the different growth patterns, and to investigate conditions under which the virus population eliminates the target cells. We find that both the filled ring structure and disperse pattern of initial expansion are indicative of treatment failure, where target cells persist in the long run. The hollow ring structure is associated with either target cell extinction or low-level persistence, both of which can be viewed as treatment success. Interestingly, it is found that equilibrium properties of ordinary differential equations describing the

Backyard housing in Gauteng: An analysis of spatial dynamics

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Backyard housing in Gauteng: An analysis of spatial dynamics. Yasmin Shapurjee ... Drawing on quantitative geo-demographic data from GeoTerraImage (GTI). (2010), Knowledge .... a fundamental role in absorbing demand for low-income ...

Information-guided transmission in decode-and-forward relaying systems: Spatial exploitation and throughput enhancement

KAUST Repository

Yang, Yuli

2011-07-01

In addressing the issue of achieving high throughput in half-duplex relay channels, we exploit a concept of information-guided transmission for the network consisting of a source node, a destination node, and multiple half-duplex relay nodes. For further benefiting from multiple relay nodes, the relay-selection patterns are defined as the arbitrary combinations of given relay nodes. By exploiting the difference among the spatial channels states, in each relay-help transmission additional information to be forwarded is mapped onto the index of the active relay-selection pattern besides the basic information mapped onto the traditional constellation, which is forwarded by the relay node(s) in the active relay-selection pattern, so as to enhance the relay throughtput. With iterative decoding, the destination node can achieve a robust detection by decoupling the signals forwarded in different ways. We investigate the proposed scheme considering "decode-and-forward" protocol and establish its achievable transmission rate. The analytical results on capacity behaviors prove the efficiency of the proposed scheme by showing that it achieves better capacity performance than the conventional scheme. © 2011 IEEE.

Modelling parasite transmission in a grazing system: the importance of host behaviour and immunity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naomi J Fox

Full Text Available Parasitic helminths present one of the most pervasive challenges to grazing herbivores. Many macro-parasite transmission models focus on host physiological defence strategies, omitting more complex interactions between hosts and their environments. This work represents the first model that integrates both the behavioural and physiological elements of gastro-intestinal nematode transmission dynamics in a managed grazing system. A spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic model is developed, that incorporates both the hosts' immunological responses to parasitism, and key grazing behaviours including faecal avoidance. The results demonstrate that grazing behaviour affects both the timing and intensity of parasite outbreaks, through generating spatial heterogeneity in parasite risk and nutritional resources, and changing the timing of exposure to the parasites' free-living stages. The influence of grazing behaviour varies with the host-parasite combination, dependent on the development times of different parasite species and variations in host immune response. Our outputs include the counterintuitive finding that under certain conditions perceived parasite avoidance behaviours (faecal avoidance can increase parasite risk, for certain host-parasite combinations. Through incorporating the two-way interaction between infection dynamics and grazing behaviour, the potential benefits of parasite-induced anorexia are also demonstrated. Hosts with phenotypic plasticity in grazing behaviour, that make grazing decisions dependent on current parasite burden, can reduce infection with minimal loss of intake over the grazing season. This paper explores how both host behaviours and immunity influence macro-parasite transmission in a spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment. The magnitude and timing of parasite outbreaks is influenced by host immunity and behaviour, and the interactions between them; the incorporation of both regulatory processes

Assessing the role of landscape connectivity on Opisthorchis viverrini transmission dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yi-Chen; Yuen, Roy; Feng, Chen-Chieh; Sithithaworn, Paiboon; Kim, Ick-Hoi

2017-08-01

Opisthorchis viverrini (Ov) is one of the most important human parasitic diseases in Southeast Asia. Although the concept of connectivity is widely used to comprehend disease dispersal, knowledge of the influences of landscape connectivity on Ov transmission is still rudimentary. This study aimed to investigate the role of landscape connectivity in Ov transmission between the human and the first intermediate snail hosts. Fieldwork was conducted in three villages respectively in Kamalasai District, Kalasin Province, Phu Wiang District, Khon Kaen Province, and Nong Saeng District, Udon Thani Province. Bithynia snails were collected to examine parasitic infections, water samples were analyzed for fecal contamination, and locations of septic tanks and connections between habitat patches with observable water movement were surveyed. Euclidean distance, topological link and distance, and graph measures were employed to quantify the connectivity between human and snail habitats. The findings showed that snail patches with higher fecal contents were generally located nearer to septic tanks. The statistically significant results for the topological link and distance measures highlighted the importance of water in functionally facilitating Ov transmission. Graph measures revealed differences in landscape connectivity across the sites. The site with the largest landscape component size and the most mutually connected snail patches coincided with the presence of Ov parasite, reinforcing its higher risk for human to snail transmission. The site with the dissected landscape structure potentially limited the transmission. This study underscored the potential effect of landscape connectivity on Ov transmission, contributing to the understanding of the spatial variation of Ov infection risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular dynamics of TBP and DBP studied by neutron transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salles Filho, J.B.V.; Refinetti, M.E.; Fulfaro, R.; Vinhas, L.A.

1984-04-01

Differences between the properties of TBP and DBP, concerning the uranium extraction processes, may be related to certain characteristics of the molecular dynamics of each compound. In order to investigate the dynamical behaviour of hydrogen in these molecules, neutron transmission of TBP and DBP has been measured as a function of neutron wavelenght in the range 4.0 - 6.0 A, at room temperature. Scattering cross sections per hydrogen atom have been obtained. From the comparison with results previously obtained for n-butanol, similar dynamical behaviour of butyl radicals in these compounds could be observed. This similarity indicates that the presence of two or three butyl radicals in butylphosphate molecules does not exert influence in the hydrogen motion of methyl and methylene groups. This suggests that the different chemical behaviour between TBP and DBP is related to the dynamics of the hydrogen directly bound to the DBP phosphate group.(Author) [pt

Human seizures couple across spatial scales through travelling wave dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Martinet, L.-E.; Fiddyment, G.; Madsen, J. R.; Eskandar, E. N.; Truccolo, W.; Eden, U. T.; Cash, S. S.; Kramer, M. A.

2017-04-01

Epilepsy--the propensity toward recurrent, unprovoked seizures--is a devastating disease affecting 65 million people worldwide. Understanding and treating this disease remains a challenge, as seizures manifest through mechanisms and features that span spatial and temporal scales. Here we address this challenge through the analysis and modelling of human brain voltage activity recorded simultaneously across microscopic and macroscopic spatial scales. We show that during seizure large-scale neural populations spanning centimetres of cortex coordinate with small neural groups spanning cortical columns, and provide evidence that rapidly propagating waves of activity underlie this increased inter-scale coupling. We develop a corresponding computational model to propose specific mechanisms--namely, the effects of an increased extracellular potassium concentration diffusing in space--that support the observed spatiotemporal dynamics. Understanding the multi-scale, spatiotemporal dynamics of human seizures--and connecting these dynamics to specific biological mechanisms--promises new insights to treat this devastating disease.

GSHR-Tree: a spatial index tree based on dynamic spatial slot and hash table in grid environments

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zhanlong; Wu, Xin-cai; Wu, Liang

2008-12-01

Computation Grids enable the coordinated sharing of large-scale distributed heterogeneous computing resources that can be used to solve computationally intensive problems in science, engineering, and commerce. Grid spatial applications are made possible by high-speed networks and a new generation of Grid middleware that resides between networks and traditional GIS applications. The integration of the multi-sources and heterogeneous spatial information and the management of the distributed spatial resources and the sharing and cooperative of the spatial data and Grid services are the key problems to resolve in the development of the Grid GIS. The performance of the spatial index mechanism is the key technology of the Grid GIS and spatial database affects the holistic performance of the GIS in Grid Environments. In order to improve the efficiency of parallel processing of a spatial mass data under the distributed parallel computing grid environment, this paper presents a new grid slot hash parallel spatial index GSHR-Tree structure established in the parallel spatial indexing mechanism. Based on the hash table and dynamic spatial slot, this paper has improved the structure of the classical parallel R tree index. The GSHR-Tree index makes full use of the good qualities of R-Tree and hash data structure. This paper has constructed a new parallel spatial index that can meet the needs of parallel grid computing about the magnanimous spatial data in the distributed network. This arithmetic splits space in to multi-slots by multiplying and reverting and maps these slots to sites in distributed and parallel system. Each sites constructs the spatial objects in its spatial slot into an R tree. On the basis of this tree structure, the index data was distributed among multiple nodes in the grid networks by using large node R-tree method. The unbalance during process can be quickly adjusted by means of a dynamical adjusting algorithm. This tree structure has considered the

Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994–2006

Science.gov (United States)

CHOWELL, G.; TORRE, C. A.; MUNAYCO-ESCATE, C.; SUÁREZ-OGNIO, L.; LÓPEZ-CRUZ, R.; HYMAN, J. M.; CASTILLO-CHAVEZ, C.

2008-01-01

SUMMARY The weekly number of dengue cases in Peru, South America, stratified by province for the period 1994–2006 were analysed in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data. Estimates of the reproduction number, moderately correlated with population size (Spearman ρ=0·28, P=0·03), had a median of 1·76 (IQR 0·83–4·46). The distributions of dengue attack rates and epidemic durations follow power-law (Pareto) distributions (coefficient of determination >85%, Pjungle areas. Our findings suggest a hierarchy of transmission events during the large 2000–2001 epidemic from large to small population areas when serotypes DEN-3 and DEN-4 were first identified (Spearman ρ=−0·43, P=0·03). The need for spatial and temporal dengue epidemic data with a high degree of resolution not only increases our understanding of the dynamics of dengue but will also generate new hypotheses and provide a platform for testing innovative control policies. PMID:18394264

Enhancement of epidemic spread by noise and stochastic resonance in spatial network models with viral dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuckwell, H C; Toubiana, L; Vibert, J F

2000-05-01

We extend a previous dynamical viral network model to include stochastic effects. The dynamical equations for the viral and immune effector densities within a host population of size n are bilinear, and the noise is white, additive, and Gaussian. The individuals are connected with an n x n transmission matrix, with terms which decay exponentially with distance. In a single individual, for the range of noise parameters considered, it is found that increasing the amplitude of the noise tends to decrease the maximum mean virion level, and slightly accelerate its attainment. Two different spatial dynamical models are employed to ascertain the effects of environmental stochasticity on viral spread. In the first model transmission is unrestricted and there is no threshold within individuals. This model has the advantage that it can be analyzed using a Fokker-Planck approach. The noise is found both to synchronize and uniformize the trajectories of the viral levels across the population of infected individuals, and thus to promote the epidemic spread of the virus. Quantitative measures of the speed of spread and overall amplitude of the epidemic are obtained as functions of the noise and virulence parameters. The mean amplitude increases steadily without threshold effects for a fixed value of the virulence as the noise amplitude sigma is increased, and there is no evidence of a stochastic resonance. However, the speed of transmission, both with respect to its mean and variance, undergoes rapid increases as sigma changes by relatively small amounts. In the second, more realistic, model, there is a threshold for infection and an upper limit to the transmission rate. There may be no spread of infection at all in the absence of noise. With increasing noise level and a low threshold, the mean maximum virion level grows quickly and shows a broad-based stochastic resonance effect. When the threshold within individuals is increased, the mean population virion level increases only

Time-resolved X-ray transmission microscopy on magnetic microstructures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puzic, Aleksandar

2007-01-01

Three excitation schemes were designed for stroboscopic imaging of magnetization dynamics with time-resolved magnetic transmission X-ray microscopy (TR-MTXM). These techniques were implemented into two types of X-ray microscopes, namely the imaging transmission X-ray microscope (ITXM) and the scanning transmission X-ray microscope (STXM), both installed at the electron storage ring of the Advanced Light Source in Berkeley, USA. Circular diffraction gratings (Fresnel zone plates) used in both microscopes as focusing and imaging elements presently allow for lateral resolution down to 30 nm. Magnetic imaging is performed by using the X-ray magnetic circular dichroism (XMCD) as element specific contrast mechanism. The developed methods have been successfully applied to the experimental investigation of magnetization dynamics in ferromagnetic microstructures. A temporal resolution well below 100 ps was achieved. A conventional pump-probe technique was implemented first. The dynamic response of the magnetization excited by a broadband pulsed magnetic field was imaged spatially resolved using focused X-ray flashes. As a complementary method, the spatially resolved ferromagnetic resonance (SR-FMR) technique was developed for experimental study of magnetization dynamics in the frequency domain. As a third excitation mode, the burst excitation was implemented. The performance and efficiency of the developed methods have been demonstrated by imaging the local magnetization dynamics in laterally patterned ferromagnetic thin-film elements and three-layer stacks. The existence of multiple eigenmodes in the excitation spectra of ferromagnetic microstructures has been verified by using the pump-probe technique. Magnetostatic spin waves were selectively excited and detected with a time resolution of 50 ps using the SR-FMR technique. Thorough analysis of 20 in most cases independently prepared samples has verified that vortices which exhibit a low-amplitude switching of their core

Spatially heterogeneous dynamics investigated via a time-dependent four-point density correlation function

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lacevic, N.; Starr, F. W.; Schrøder, Thomas

2003-01-01

correlation function g4(r,t) and corresponding "structure factor" S4(q,t) which measure the spatial correlations between the local liquid density at two points in space, each at two different times, and so are sensitive to dynamical heterogeneity. We study g4(r,t) and S4(q,t) via molecular dynamics......Relaxation in supercooled liquids above their glass transition and below the onset temperature of "slow" dynamics involves the correlated motion of neighboring particles. This correlated motion results in the appearance of spatially heterogeneous dynamics or "dynamical heterogeneity." Traditional...... two-point time-dependent density correlation functions, while providing information about the transient "caging" of particles on cooling, are unable to provide sufficiently detailed information about correlated motion and dynamical heterogeneity. Here, we study a four-point, time-dependent density...

Abstract spatial concept priming dynamically influences real-world actions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah M Tower-Richardi

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Experienced regularities in our perceptions and actions play important roles in grounding abstract concepts such as social status, time, and emotion. Might we similarly ground abstract spatial concepts in more experienced-based domains? The present experiment explores this possibility by implicitly priming abstract spatial terms (north, south, east, west and then measuring participants’ hand movement trajectories while they respond to a body-referenced spatial target (up, down, left, right in a verbal (Exp. 1 or spatial (Exp. 2 format. Results from two experiments demonstrate temporally-dynamic and prime-biased movement trajectories when the primes are incongruent with the targets (e.g., north – left, west – up. That is, priming abstract coordinate directions influences subsequent actions in response to concrete target directions. These findings provide the first evidence that abstract concepts of world-centered coordinate axes are implicitly understood in the context of concrete body-referenced axes; critically, this abstract-concrete relationship manifests in motor movements, and may have implications for spatial memory organization.

Direct characterization of phase transformations and morphologies in moving reaction zones in Al/Ni nanolaminates using dynamic transmission electron microscopy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, J.S., E-mail: judy.kim@materials.ox.ac.uk [Condensed Matter and Materials Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Chemical Engineering and Materials Science/Molecular and Cellular Biology, University of California-Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); LaGrange, T.; Reed, B.W. [Condensed Matter and Materials Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Knepper, R.; Weihs, T.P. [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N. Charles St., Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Browning, N.D. [Condensed Matter and Materials Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Chemical Engineering and Materials Science/Molecular and Cellular Biology, University of California-Davis, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Campbell, G.H. [Condensed Matter and Materials Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States)

2011-05-15

Highlights: > Fast phase transformations are examined in Al/Ni reactive nanolaminates. > Results visible only by dynamic transmission electron microscopy at ns resolution. > NiAl forms under 15 ns after reaction front in all three stoichiometries studied. > DTEM imaging reveals a transient cellular morphology in nonequiatomic films. - Abstract: Phase transformations and transient morphologies are examined as exothermic formation reactions self-propagate across Al/Ni nanolaminate films. The rapid evolution of these phases and sub-micrometer morphological features requires nanoscale temporal and spatial resolution that is not available with traditional in situ electron microscopy. This work uses dynamic transmission electron microscopy to identify intermetallic products and phase morphologies, as exothermic formation reactions self-propagate in nanolaminate films grown with 3:2, 2:3 and 1:1 Al/Ni atomic ratios. Single-shot diffraction patterns with 15 ns temporal resolution reveal that the NiAl intermetallic forms within {approx}15 ns of the reaction front's arrival in all three types of films and is the only intermetallic phase to form, as the reactions self-propagate and quench very rapidly. Time-resolved imaging reveals a transient cellular morphology in the Al-rich and Ni-rich foils, but not in the equiatomic films. The cellular features in the Al-rich and Ni-rich films are attributed to a cooling trajectory through a two-phase field of liquid + NiAl.

Neutron resonance transmission spectroscopy with high spatial and energy resolution at the J-PARC pulsed neutron source

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tremsin, A.S., E-mail: ast@ssl.berkeley.edu [University of California at Berkeley, 7 Gauss Way, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Shinohara, T.; Kai, T.; Ooi, M. [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2–4 Shirakata-shirane, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki 319-1195 (Japan); Kamiyama, T.; Kiyanagi, Y.; Shiota, Y. [Hokkaido University, Kita 13 Nishi 8 Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8628 (Japan); McPhate, J.B.; Vallerga, J.V.; Siegmund, O.H.W. [University of California at Berkeley, 7 Gauss Way, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Feller, W.B. [NOVA Scientific, Inc., 10 Picker Rd., Sturbridge, MA 01566 (United States)

2014-05-11

The sharp variation of neutron attenuation at certain energies specific to particular nuclides (the lower range being from ∼1 eV up to ∼1 keV), can be exploited for the remote mapping of element and/or isotope distributions, as well as temperature probing, within relatively thick samples. Intense pulsed neutron beam-lines at spallation sources combined with a high spatial, high-timing resolution neutron counting detector, provide a unique opportunity to measure neutron transmission spectra through the time-of-flight technique. We present the results of experiments where spatially resolved neutron resonances were measured, at energies up to 50 keV. These experiments were performed with the intense flux low background NOBORU neutron beamline at the J-PARC neutron source and the high timing resolution (∼20 ns at epithermal neutron energies) and spatial resolution (∼55 µm) neutron counting detector using microchannel plates coupled to a Timepix electronic readout. Simultaneous element-specific imaging was carried out for several materials, at a spatial resolution of ∼150 µm. The high timing resolution of our detector combined with the low background beamline, also enabled characterization of the neutron pulse itself – specifically its pulse width, which varies with neutron energy. The results of our measurements are in good agreement with the predicted results for the double pulse structure of the J-PARC facility, which provides two 100 ns-wide proton pulses separated by 600 ns, broadened by the neutron energy moderation process. Thermal neutron radiography can be conducted simultaneously with resonance transmission spectroscopy, and can reveal the internal structure of the samples. The transmission spectra measured in our experiments demonstrate the feasibility of mapping elemental distributions using this non-destructive technique, for those elements (and in certain cases, specific isotopes), which have resonance energies below a few keV, and with lower

Electron beam dynamics in an ultrafast transmission electron microscope with Wehnelt electrode

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bücker, K.; Picher, M.; Crégut, O. [Institut de Physique et Chimie des Matériaux de Strasbourg, UMR 7504 CNRS, Université de Strasbourg, 23 rue du Loess, 67034 Strasbourg (France); LaGrange, T. [Interdisciplinary Centre for Electron Microscopy, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne (Switzerland); Reed, B.W.; Park, S.T.; Masiel, D.J. [Integrated Dynamic Electron Solutions, Inc., 5653 Stoneridge Drive 117, Pleasanton, CA 94588 (United States); Banhart, F., E-mail: florian.banhart@ipcms.unistra.fr [Institut de Physique et Chimie des Matériaux de Strasbourg, UMR 7504 CNRS, Université de Strasbourg, 23 rue du Loess, 67034 Strasbourg (France)

2016-12-15

High temporal resolution transmission electron microscopy techniques have shown significant progress in recent years. Using photoelectron pulses induced by ultrashort laser pulses on the cathode, these methods can probe ultrafast materials processes and have revealed numerous dynamic phenomena at the nanoscale. Most recently, the technique has been implemented in standard thermionic electron microscopes that provide a flexible platform for studying material's dynamics over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, the electron pulses in such an ultrafast transmission electron microscope are characterized in detail. The microscope is based on a thermionic gun with a Wehnelt electrode and is operated in a stroboscopic photoelectron mode. It is shown that the Wehnelt bias has a decisive influence on the temporal and energy spread of the picosecond electron pulses. Depending on the shape of the cathode and the cathode-Wehnelt distance, different emission patterns with different pulse parameters are obtained. The energy spread of the pulses is determined by space charge and Boersch effects, given by the number of electrons in a pulse. However, filtering effects due to the chromatic aberrations of the Wehnelt electrode allow the extraction of pulses with narrow energy spreads. The temporal spread is governed by electron trajectories of different length and in different electrostatic potentials. High temporal resolution is obtained by excluding shank emission from the cathode and aberration-induced halos in the emission pattern. By varying the cathode-Wehnelt gap, the Wehnelt bias, and the number of photoelectrons in a pulse, tradeoffs between energy and temporal resolution as well as beam intensity can be made as needed for experiments. Based on the characterization of the electron pulses, the optimal conditions for the operation of ultrafast TEMs with thermionic gun assembly are elaborated. - Highlights: • A detailed characterization of electron

Probing heterogeneous dynamics from spatial density correlation in glass-forming liquids.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yan-Wei; Zhu, You-Liang; Sun, Zhao-Yan

2016-12-01

We numerically investigate the connection between spatial density correlation and dynamical heterogeneity in glass-forming liquids. We demonstrate that the cluster size defined by the spatial aggregation of densely packed particles (DPPs) can better capture the difference between the dynamics of the Lennard-Jones glass model and the Weeks-Chandler-Andersen truncation model than the commonly used pair correlation functions. More interestingly, we compare the mobility of DPPs and loosely packed particles, and we find that high local density correlates well with slow dynamics in systems with relatively hard repulsive interactions but links to mobile ones in the system with soft repulsive interactions at one relaxation time scale. Our results show clear evidence that the above model dependence behavior stems from the hopping motion of DPPs at the end of the caging stage due to the compressive nature of soft repulsive spheres, which activates the dynamics of DPPs in the α relaxation stage.

Using chemistry and microfluidics to understand the spatial dynamics of complex biological networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Kastrup, Christian J; Runyon, Matthew K; Lucchetta, Elena M; Price, Jessica M; Ismagilov, Rustem F

2008-04-01

Understanding the spatial dynamics of biochemical networks is both fundamentally important for understanding life at the systems level and also has practical implications for medicine, engineering, biology, and chemistry. Studies at the level of individual reactions provide essential information about the function, interactions, and localization of individual molecular species and reactions in a network. However, analyzing the spatial dynamics of complex biochemical networks at this level is difficult. Biochemical networks are nonequilibrium systems containing dozens to hundreds of reactions with nonlinear and time-dependent interactions, and these interactions are influenced by diffusion, flow, and the relative values of state-dependent kinetic parameters. To achieve an overall understanding of the spatial dynamics of a network and the global mechanisms that drive its function, networks must be analyzed as a whole, where all of the components and influential parameters of a network are simultaneously considered. Here, we describe chemical concepts and microfluidic tools developed for network-level investigations of the spatial dynamics of these networks. Modular approaches can be used to simplify these networks by separating them into modules, and simple experimental or computational models can be created by replacing each module with a single reaction. Microfluidics can be used to implement these models as well as to analyze and perturb the complex network itself with spatial control on the micrometer scale. We also describe the application of these network-level approaches to elucidate the mechanisms governing the spatial dynamics of two networkshemostasis (blood clotting) and early patterning of the Drosophila embryo. To investigate the dynamics of the complex network of hemostasis, we simplified the network by using a modular mechanism and created a chemical model based on this mechanism by using microfluidics. Then, we used the mechanism and the model to

Classifying and comparing spatial models of fire dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan

2007-01-01

Wildland fire is a significant disturbance in many ecosystems worldwide and the interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans has major effects on vegetation dynamics, ecosystem carbon budgets, and patterns of biodiversity. Landscape-Fire-Succession Models (LFSMs) that simulate the linked processes of fire and vegetation development in a spatial...

Spatial self-organization in a multi-strain host–pathogen system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Quan-Xing; Van de Koppel, Johan; Wang, Rong-Hua; Jin, Zhen; Alonso, David

2010-01-01

We develop stochastic spatial epidemic models with the competition of two pathogenic strains. The dynamics resulting from different approaches are examined using both non-spatial and spatially explicit models. Our results show that pair approximation, well-mixed ordinary differential equations (ODEs), Gillespie-algorithm-based simulations and spatially explicit models give similar qualitative results. In particular, the temporal evolution of the spatial model can be successfully approximated by pair equations. Simulation results obtained from the spatially explicit model show that, first, mutation plays a major role in multi-strain coexistence, second, mild virulence remarkably decreases the coexistence domain of the parameter space and, third, large-scale self-organized spatial patterns emerge for a wide range of transmission and virulence parameter values, where spatial self-organized clusters reveal a power law behavior within the coexistence domain

Potential and flux field landscape theory. II. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics of spatially inhomogeneous stochastic dynamical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Wei; Wang, Jin

2014-01-01

We have established a general non-equilibrium thermodynamic formalism consistently applicable to both spatially homogeneous and, more importantly, spatially inhomogeneous systems, governed by the Langevin and Fokker-Planck stochastic dynamics with multiple state transition mechanisms, using the potential-flux landscape framework as a bridge connecting stochastic dynamics with non-equilibrium thermodynamics. A set of non-equilibrium thermodynamic equations, quantifying the relations of the non-equilibrium entropy, entropy flow, entropy production, and other thermodynamic quantities, together with their specific expressions, is constructed from a set of dynamical decomposition equations associated with the potential-flux landscape framework. The flux velocity plays a pivotal role on both the dynamic and thermodynamic levels. On the dynamic level, it represents a dynamic force breaking detailed balance, entailing the dynamical decomposition equations. On the thermodynamic level, it represents a thermodynamic force generating entropy production, manifested in the non-equilibrium thermodynamic equations. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and more specific examples, the spatial stochastic neuronal model, in particular, are studied to test and illustrate the general theory. This theoretical framework is particularly suitable to study the non-equilibrium (thermo)dynamics of spatially inhomogeneous systems abundant in nature. This paper is the second of a series

Spatial Correlation of PAN UWB-MIMO Channel Including User Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Yu; Kovacs, Istvan Zsolt; Pedersen, Gert Frølund

. It is found the channel shows spatial correlated wideband power, and spatial uncorrelated complex channel coefficients at different frequencies and delays with respect to a correlation coefficient threshold of 0.7. The Kronecker model is proved not suitable for the investigated scenarios. The MIMO UWB channel......In this paper we present and analyze spatial correlation properties of indoor 4x2 MIMO UWB channels in personal area network (PAN) scenarios. The presented results are based on measurement of radio links between an access point like device and a hand held or belt mounted device with dynamic user...

Transmission Dynamics of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Pigs

Science.gov (United States)

Crombé, Florence; Argudín, M. Angeles; Vanderhaeghen, Wannes; Hermans, Katleen; Haesebrouck, Freddy; Butaye, Patrick

2013-01-01

From the mid-2000s on, numerous studies have shown that methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), renowned as human pathogen, has a reservoir in pigs and other livestock. In Europe and North America, clonal complex (CC) 398 appears to be the predominant lineage involved. Especially worrisome is its capacity to contaminate humans in close contact with affected animals. Indeed, the typical multi-resistant phenotype of MRSA CC398 and its observed ability of easily acquiring genetic material suggests that MRSA CC398 strains with an increased virulence potential may emerge, for which few therapeutic options would remain. This questions the need to implement interventions to control the presence and spread of MRSA CC398 among pigs. MRSA CC398 shows a high but not fully understood transmission potential in the pig population and is able to persist within that population. Although direct contact is probably the main route for MRSA transmission between pigs, also environmental contamination, the presence of other livestock, the herd size, and farm management are factors that may be involved in the dissemination of MRSA CC398. The current review aims at summarizing the research that has so far been done on the transmission dynamics and risk factors for introduction and persistence of MRSA CC398 in farms. PMID:23518663

Linking social and pathogen transmission networks using microbial genetics in giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis).

Science.gov (United States)

VanderWaal, Kimberly L; Atwill, Edward R; Isbell, Lynne A; McCowan, Brenda

2014-03-01

Although network analysis has drawn considerable attention as a promising tool for disease ecology, empirical research has been hindered by limitations in detecting the occurrence of pathogen transmission (who transmitted to whom) within social networks. Using a novel approach, we utilize the genetics of a diverse microbe, Escherichia coli, to infer where direct or indirect transmission has occurred and use these data to construct transmission networks for a wild giraffe population (Giraffe camelopardalis). Individuals were considered to be a part of the same transmission chain and were interlinked in the transmission network if they shared genetic subtypes of E. coli. By using microbial genetics to quantify who transmits to whom independently from the behavioural data on who is in contact with whom, we were able to directly investigate how the structure of contact networks influences the structure of the transmission network. To distinguish between the effects of social and environmental contact on transmission dynamics, the transmission network was compared with two separate contact networks defined from the behavioural data: a social network based on association patterns, and a spatial network based on patterns of home-range overlap among individuals. We found that links in the transmission network were more likely to occur between individuals that were strongly linked in the social network. Furthermore, individuals that had more numerous connections or that occupied 'bottleneck' positions in the social network tended to occupy similar positions in the transmission network. No similar correlations were observed between the spatial and transmission networks. This indicates that an individual's social network position is predictive of transmission network position, which has implications for identifying individuals that function as super-spreaders or transmission bottlenecks in the population. These results emphasize the importance of association patterns in

Engineering science research issues in high power density transmission dynamics for aerospace applications. [rotorcraft geared rotors

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Rajendra; Houser, Donald R.

1993-01-01

This paper discusses analytical and experimental approaches that will be needed to understand dynamic, vibro-acoustic and design characteristics of high power density rotorcraft transmissions. Complexities associated with mathematical modeling of such systems will be discussed. An overview of research work planned during the next several years will be presented, with emphasis on engineering science issues such as gear contact mechanics, multi-mesh drive dynamics, parameter uncertainties, vibration transmission through bearings, and vibro-acoustic characteristics of geared rotor systems and housing-mount structures. A few examples of work in progress are cited.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 transmission in France (1999-2014) and impact of targeted prevention strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaillon, Antoine; Essat, Asma; Frange, Pierre; Smith, Davey M; Delaugerre, Constance; Barin, Francis; Ghosn, Jade; Pialoux, Gilles; Robineau, Olivier; Rouzioux, Christine; Goujard, Cécile; Meyer, Laurence; Chaix, Marie-Laure

2017-02-21

Characterizing HIV-1 transmission networks can be important in understanding the evolutionary patterns and geospatial spread of the epidemic. We reconstructed the broad molecular epidemiology of HIV from individuals with primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) enrolled in France in the ANRS PRIMO C06 cohort over 15 years. Sociodemographic, geographic, clinical, biological and pol sequence data from 1356 patients were collected between 1999 and 2014. Network analysis was performed to infer genetic relationships, i.e. clusters of transmission, between HIV-1 sequences. Bayesian coalescent-based methods were used to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of identified clusters from different regions in France. We also evaluated the use of network information to target prevention efforts. Participants were mostly Caucasian (85.9%) and men (86.7%) who reported sex with men (MSM, 71.4%). Overall, 387 individuals (28.5%) were involved in clusters: 156 patients (11.5%) in 78 dyads and 231 participants (17%) in 42 larger clusters (median size: 4, range 3-41). Compared to individuals with single PHI (n = 969), those in clusters were more frequently men (95.9 vs 83%, p turnaround time for sample processing, targeting prevention efforts based on phylogenetic monitoring may be an efficient way to deliver prevention interventions but would require near real time targeted interventions on the identified index cases and their partners.

Solution strategies as possible explanations of individual and sex differences in a dynamic spatial task.

Science.gov (United States)

Peña, Daniel; Contreras, María José; Shih, Pei Chun; Santacreu, José

2008-05-01

When individuals perform spatial tasks, individual differences emerge in accuracy and speed as well as in the response patterns used to cope with the task. The purpose of this study is to identify, through empirical criteria, the different response patterns or strategies used by individuals when performing the dynamic spatial task presented in the Spatial Orientation Dynamic Test-Revised (SODT-R). Results show that participants can be classified according to their response patterns. Three different ways of solving a task are described, and their relation to (a) performance factors (response latency, response frequency, and invested time) and (b) ability tests (analytical reasoning, verbal reasoning, and spatial estimation) are investigated. Sex differences in response patterns and performance are also analyzed. It is found that the frequency with which men and women employ each one of the strategies described here, is different and statistically significant. Thus, employed strategy plays an important role when interpreting sex differences on dynamic spatial tasks.

Spatial variation in carrier dynamics along a single CdSSe nanowire

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blake, Jolie C.; Eldridge, Peter S.; Gundlach, Lars

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Femtosecond Kerr-gate microscopy allows ultrafast fluorescence measurements along different positions of a single nanowire. • Amplified spontaneous emission observed at high fluences can be used to calculate recombination rates. • Observation of ASE at different locations along a single CdSSe nanowire provides the ability to extract defect densities. - Abstract: Ultrafast charge carrier dynamics along individual CdS x Se 1−x nanowires has been measured. The use of an improved ultrafast Kerr-gated microscope allows for spatially resolved luminescence measurements along a single nanowire. Amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) was observed at high excitation fluences. Position dependent variations of ultrafast ASE dynamics were observed. SEM and colorimetric measurements showed that the difference in dynamics can be attributed to variations in non-radiative recombination rates along the wire. The dominant Shockley-Read recombination rate can be extracted from ASE dynamics and can be directly related to charge carrier mobility and defect density. Employing ASE as a probe for defect densities provides a new sub-micron spatially resolved, contactless method for measurements of charge carrier mobility

Broad patterns in domestic vector-borne Trypanosoma cruzi transmission dynamics: synanthropic animals and vector control.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Jennifer K; Bartsch, Sarah M; Lee, Bruce Y; Dobson, Andrew P

2015-10-22

Chagas disease (caused by Trypanosoma cruzi) is the most important neglected tropical disease (NTD) in Latin America, infecting an estimated 5.7 million people in the 21 countries where it is endemic. It is one of the NTDs targeted for control and elimination by the 2020 London Declaration goals, with the first goal being to interrupt intra-domiciliary vector-borne T. cruzi transmission. A key question in domestic T. cruzi transmission is the role that synanthropic animals play in T. cruzi transmission to humans. Here, we ask, (1) do synanthropic animals need to be targeted in Chagas disease prevention policies?, and (2) how does the presence of animals affect the efficacy of vector control? We developed a simple mathematical model to simulate domestic vector-borne T. cruzi transmission and to specifically examine the interaction between the presence of synanthropic animals and effects of vector control. We used the model to explore how the interactions between triatomine bugs, humans and animals impact the number and proportion of T. cruzi-infected bugs and humans. We then examined how T. cruzi dynamics change when control measures targeting vector abundance are introduced into the system. We found that the presence of synanthropic animals slows the speed of T. cruzi transmission to humans, and increases the sensitivity of T. cruzi transmission dynamics to vector control measures at comparable triatomine carrying capacities. However, T. cruzi transmission is amplified when triatomine carrying capacity increases with the abundance of syntathoropic hosts. Our results suggest that in domestic T. cruzi transmission scenarios where no vector control measures are in place, a reduction in synanthropic animals may slow T. cruzi transmission to humans, but it would not completely eliminate transmission. To reach the 2020 goal of interrupting intra-domiciliary T. cruzi transmission, it is critical to target vector populations. Additionally, where vector control measures

Spatial Terahertz Modulator

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Zhenwei; Wang, Xinke; Ye, Jiasheng; Feng, Shengfei; Sun, Wenfeng; Akalin, Tahsin; Zhang, Yan

2013-11-01

Terahertz (THz) technology is a developing and promising candidate for biological imaging, security inspection and communications, due to the low photon energy, the high transparency and the broad band properties of the THz radiation. However, a major encountered bottleneck is lack of efficient devices to manipulate the THz wave, especially to modulate the THz wave front. A wave front modulator should allow the optical or electrical control of the spatial transmission (or reflection) of an input THz wave and hence the ability to encode the information in a wave front. Here we propose a spatial THz modulator (STM) to dynamically control the THz wave front with photo-generated carriers. A computer generated THz hologram is projected onto a silicon wafer by a conventional spatial light modulator (SLM). The corresponding photo-generated carrier spatial distribution will be induced, which forms an amplitude hologram to modulate the wave front of the input THz beam. Some special intensity patterns and vortex beams are generated by using this method. This all-optical controllable STM is structure free, high resolution and broadband. It is expected to be widely used in future THz imaging and communication systems.

A hybrid computer simulation of reactor spatial dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hinds, H.W.

1977-08-01

The partial differential equations describing the one-speed spatial dynamics of thermal neutron reactors were converted to a set of ordinary differential equations, using finite-difference approximations for the spatial derivatives. The variables were then normalized to a steady-state reference condition in a novel manner, to yield an equation set particularly suitable for implementation on a hybrid computer. One Applied Dynamics AD/FIVE analog-computer console is capable of solving, all in parallel, up to 30 simultaneous differential equations. This corresponds roughly to eight reactor nodes, each with two active delayed-neutron groups. To improve accuracy, an increase in the number of nodes is usually required. Using the Hsu-Howe multiplexing technique, an 8-node, one-dimensional module was switched back and forth between the left and right halves of the reactor, to simulate a 16-node model, also in one dimension. These two versions (8 or 16 nodes) of the model were tested on benchmark problems of the loss-of-coolant type, which were also solved using the digital code FORSIM, with two energy groups and 26 nodes. Good agreement was obtained between the two solution techniques. (author)

Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.

2013-01-01

Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived

A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

2017-01-01

Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

2006-01-01

The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

Modeling spatial invasion of Ebola in West Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Silva, Jeremy P; Eisenberg, Marisa C

2017-09-07

The 2014-2016 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa was the largest ever recorded, representing a fundamental shift in Ebola epidemiology with unprecedented spatiotemporal complexity. To understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of EVD in West Africa, we developed spatial transmission models using a gravity-model framework at both the national and district-level scales, which we used to compare effectiveness of local interventions (e.g. local quarantine) and long-range interventions (e.g. border-closures). The country-level gravity model captures the epidemic data, including multiple waves of initial epidemic growth observed in Guinea. We found that local-transmission reductions were most effective in Liberia, while long-range transmission was dominant in Sierra Leone. Both models illustrated that interventions in one region result in an amplified protective effect on other regions by preventing spatial transmission. In the district-level model, interventions in the strongest of these amplifying regions reduced total cases in all three countries by over 20%, in spite of the region itself generating only ∼0.1% of total cases. This model structure and associated intervention analysis provide information that can be used by public health policymakers to assist planning and response efforts for future epidemics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detecting abrupt dynamic change based on changes in the fractal properties of spatial images

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qunqun; He, Wenping; Gu, Bin; Jiang, Yundi

2017-10-01

Many abrupt climate change events often cannot be detected timely by conventional abrupt detection methods until a few years after these events have occurred. The reason for this lag in detection is that abundant and long-term observational data are required for accurate abrupt change detection by these methods, especially for the detection of a regime shift. So, these methods cannot help us understand and forecast the evolution of the climate system in a timely manner. Obviously, spatial images, generated by a coupled spatiotemporal dynamical model, contain more information about a dynamic system than a single time series, and we find that spatial images show the fractal properties. The fractal properties of spatial images can be quantitatively characterized by the Hurst exponent, which can be estimated by two-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (TD-DFA). Based on this, TD-DFA is used to detect an abrupt dynamic change of a coupled spatiotemporal model. The results show that the TD-DFA method can effectively detect abrupt parameter changes in the coupled model by monitoring the changing in the fractal properties of spatial images. The present method provides a new way for abrupt dynamic change detection, which can achieve timely and efficient abrupt change detection results.

Positive Analysis of Invasive Species Control as a Dynamic Spatial Process

OpenAIRE

Buyuktahtakin, Esra; Feng, Zhuo; Olsson, Aaryn; Frisvold, George B.; Szidarovszky, Ferenc

2010-01-01

This paper models control of invasive buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare), a fire-prone African bunchgrass spreading rapidly across the southern Arizona desert as a spatial dynamic process. Buffelgrass spreads over a gridded landscape. Weed carrying capacity, treatment costs, and damages vary over grid cells. Damage from buffelgrass depends on its spatial distribution in relation to valued resources. We conduct positive analysis of recommended heuristic strategies for buffelgrass control, evalua...

Lossy transmission line model of hydrofractured well dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patzek, T.W. [Department of Materials Science and Mineral Engineering, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA (United States); De, A. [Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States)

2000-01-01

The real-time detection of hydrofracture growth is crucial to the successful operation of water, CO{sub 2} or steam injection wells in low-permeability reservoirs and to the prevention of subsidence and well failure. In this paper, we describe propagation of very low frequency (1-10 to 100 Hz) Stoneley waves in a fluid-filled wellbore and their interactions with the fundamental wave mode in a vertical hydrofracture. We demonstrate that Stoneley-wave loses energy to the fracture and the energy transfer from the wellbore to the fracture opening is most efficient in soft rocks. We conclude that placing the wave source and receivers beneath the injection packer provides the most efficient means of hydrofracture monitoring. We then present the lossy transmission line model of wellbore and fracture for the detection and characterization of fracture state and volume. We show that this model captures the wellbore and fracture geometry, the physical properties of injected fluid and the wellbore-fracture system dynamics. The model is then compared with experimentally measured well responses. The simulated responses are in good agreement with published experimental data from several water injection wells with depths ranging from 1000 ft to 9000 ft. Hence, we conclude that the transmission line model of water injectors adequately captures wellbore and fracture dynamics. Using an extensive data set for the South Belridge Diatomite waterfloods, we demonstrate that even for very shallow wells the fracture size and state can be adequately recognized at wellhead. Finally, we simulate the effects of hydrofracture extension on the transient response to a pulse signal generated at wellhead. We show that hydrofracture extensions can indeed be detected by monitoring the wellhead pressure at sufficiently low frequencies.

Phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics in generalized HIV epidemics: An essential tool where the burden is greatest?

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis, Ann M.; Herbeck, Joshua T.; Brown, Andrew Leigh; Kellam, Paul; de Oliveira, Tulio; Pillay, Deenan; Fraser, Christophe; Cohen, Myron S.

2014-01-01

Efficient and effective HIV prevention measures for generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa have not yet been validated at the population-level. Design and impact evaluation of such measures requires fine-scale understanding of local HIV transmission dynamics. The novel tools of HIV phylogenetics and molecular epidemiology may elucidate these transmission dynamics. Such methods have been incorporated into studies of concentrated HIV epidemics to identify proximate and determinant traits associated with ongoing transmission. However, applying similar phylogenetic analyses to generalized epidemics, including the design and evaluation of prevention trials, presents additional challenges. Here we review the scope of these methods and present examples of their use in concentrated epidemics in the context of prevention. Next, we describe the current uses for phylogenetics in generalized epidemics, and discuss their promise for elucidating transmission patterns and informing prevention trials. Finally, we review logistic and technical challenges inherent to large-scale molecular epidemiological studies of generalized epidemics, and suggest potential solutions. PMID:24977473

House price fluctuations and the business cycle dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Anselin, Luc

This paper investigates the impact of house price movements on output in a space-time dynamic framework. The transmission of house price fluctuations to the macroeconomy both across space and over time is explicitly considered through spatial econometric modeling techniques. Using 373 metropolita...

On the dynamic response of pressure transmission lines in the research of helium-charged free piston Stirling engines

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Eric L.; Dudenhoefer, James E.

1989-01-01

The signal distortion inherent to pressure transmission lines in free-piston Stirling engine research is discussed. Based on results from classical analysis, guidelines are formulated to describe the dynamic response properties of a volume-terminated transmission tube for applications involving the helium-charged free-piston Stirling engines. The underdamped flow regime is described, the primary resonance frequency is derived, and the pressure phase and amplitude distortion are discussed. The scope and limitation of the dynamic response analysis are considered.

Global dynamics of multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde

2014-01-01

A challenge to multi-group epidemic models in mathematical epidemiology is the exploration of global dynamics. Here we formulate multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission via contaminated water. Under biologically motivated assumptions, the basic reproduction number R 0 is derived and established as a sharp threshold that completely determines the global dynamics of the system. In particular, we prove that if R 0 <1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out; whereas if R 0 >1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and thus unique, and the disease persists in all groups. Since the weight matrix for weighted digraphs may be reducible, the afore-mentioned approach is not directly applicable to our model. For the proofs we utilize the classical method of Lyapunov, graph-theoretic results developed recently and a new combinatorial identity. Since the multiple transmission pathways may correspond to the real world, the obtained results are of biological significance and possible generalizations of the model are also discussed

Accelerator-based Single-shot Ultrafast Transmission Electron Microscope with Picosecond Temporal Resolution and Nanometer Spatial Resolution

OpenAIRE

Xiang, D.; Fu, F.; Zhang, J.; Huang, X.; Wang, L.; Wang, X.; Wan, W.

2014-01-01

We present feasibility study of an accelerator-based ultrafast transmission electron microscope (u-TEM) capable of producing a full field image in a single-shot with simultaneous picosecond temporal resolution and nanometer spatial resolution. We study key physics related to performance of u-TEMs, and discuss major challenges as well as possible solutions for practical realization of u-TEMs. The feasibility of u-TEMs is confirmed through simulations using realistic electron beam parameters. W...

Spatiotemporal model of barley and cereal yellow dwarf virus transmission dynamics with seasonality and plant competition

Science.gov (United States)

S.M. Moore; C.A. Manore; V.A. Bokil; E.T. Borer; P.R. Hosseini

2011-01-01

Many generalist pathogens are influenced by the spatial distributions and relative abundances of susceptible host species. The spatial structure of host populations can influence patterns of infection incidence (or disease outbreaks), and the effects of a generalist pathogen on host community dynamics in a spatially heterogeneous community may differ from predictions...

Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vertical Transmission and Vaccination

OpenAIRE

Miao, Anqi; Zhang, Jian; Zhang, Tongqian; Pradeep, B. G. Sampath Aruna

2017-01-01

A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.

Big city, small world: density, contact rates, and transmission of dengue across Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Kraemer, M U G; Perkins, T A; Cummings, D A T; Zakar, R; Hay, S I; Smith, D L; Reiner, R C

2015-10-06

Macroscopic descriptions of populations commonly assume that encounters between individuals are well mixed; i.e. each individual has an equal chance of coming into contact with any other individual. Relaxing this assumption can be challenging though, due to the difficulty of acquiring detailed knowledge about the non-random nature of encounters. Here, we fitted a mathematical model of dengue virus transmission to spatial time-series data from Pakistan and compared maximum-likelihood estimates of 'mixing parameters' when disaggregating data across an urban-rural gradient. We show that dynamics across this gradient are subject not only to differing transmission intensities but also to differing strengths of nonlinearity due to differences in mixing. Accounting for differences in mobility by incorporating two fine-scale, density-dependent covariate layers eliminates differences in mixing but results in a doubling of the estimated transmission potential of the large urban district of Lahore. We furthermore show that neglecting spatial variation in mixing can lead to substantial underestimates of the level of effort needed to control a pathogen with vaccines or other interventions. We complement this analysis with estimates of the relationships between dengue transmission intensity and other putative environmental drivers thereof. © 2015 The Authors.

Effects of dynamic range compression on spatial selective auditory attention in normal-hearing listeners.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Andrew H; Shinn-Cunningham, Barbara G

2013-04-01

Many hearing aids introduce compressive gain to accommodate the reduced dynamic range that often accompanies hearing loss. However, natural sounds produce complicated temporal dynamics in hearing aid compression, as gain is driven by whichever source dominates at a given moment. Moreover, independent compression at the two ears can introduce fluctuations in interaural level differences (ILDs) important for spatial perception. While independent compression can interfere with spatial perception of sound, it does not always interfere with localization accuracy or speech identification. Here, normal-hearing listeners reported a target message played simultaneously with two spatially separated masker messages. We measured the amount of spatial separation required between the target and maskers for subjects to perform at threshold in this task. Fast, syllabic compression that was independent at the two ears increased the required spatial separation, but linking the compressors to provide identical gain to both ears (preserving ILDs) restored much of the deficit caused by fast, independent compression. Effects were less clear for slower compression. Percent-correct performance was lower with independent compression, but only for small spatial separations. These results may help explain differences in previous reports of the effect of compression on spatial perception of sound.

The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lindsay M Beck-Johnson

Full Text Available The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

Markovian equilibria in dynamic spatial legislative bargaining: existence with three players

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Zápal, Jan

2016-01-01

Roč. 98, July (2016), s. 235-242 ISSN 0899-8256 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : dynamic decision-making * endogenous status-quo * spatial bargaining Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.904, year: 2016

Temporal and spatial dynamics of mineral levels of forage, soil and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Temporal and spatial dynamics of mineral levels of forage, soil and cattle blood ... In the plain lands, local variations occurred for soil phosphorus and magnesium. ... Rangeland improvement and supplementation strategies are suggested to ...

Topology Detection for Output-Coupling Weighted Complex Dynamical Networks with Coupling and Transmission Delays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinwei Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Topology detection for output-coupling weighted complex dynamical networks with two types of time delays is investigated in this paper. Different from existing literatures, coupling delay and transmission delay are simultaneously taken into account in the output-coupling network. Based on the idea of the state observer, we build the drive-response system and apply LaSalle’s invariance principle to the error dynamical system of the drive-response system. Several convergent criteria are deduced in the form of algebraic inequalities. Some numerical simulations for the complex dynamical network, with node dynamics being chaotic, are given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

Dynamic Reliability Analysis of Gear Transmission System of Wind Turbine in Consideration of Randomness of Loadings and Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A dynamic model of gear transmission system of wind turbine is built with consideration of randomness of loads and parameters. The dynamic response of the system is obtained using the theory of random sampling and the Runge-Kutta method. According to rain flow counting principle, the dynamic meshing forces are converted into a series of luffing fatigue load spectra. The amplitude and frequency of the equivalent stress are obtained using equivalent method of Geber quadratic curve. Moreover, the dynamic reliability model of components and system is built according to the theory of probability of cumulative fatigue damage. The system reliability with the random variation of parameters is calculated and the influence of random parameters on dynamic reliability of components is analyzed. In the end, the results of the proposed method are compared with that of Monte Carlo method. This paper can be instrumental in the design of wind turbine gear transmission system with more advantageous dynamic reliability.

Markovian equilibria in dynamic spatial legislative bargaining: existence with three players

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Zápal, Jan

2016-01-01

Roč. 98, July (2016), s. 235-242 ISSN 0899-8256 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : dynamic decision-making * endogenous status-quo * spatial bargaining Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.904, year: 2016

Spatially heterogeneous ages in glassy dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castillo, Horacio E.; Chamon, Claudio Chamon; Cugliandolo, Leticia F.; Iguain, Jose Luis; Kennett, Malcolm P.

2003-09-01

We construct a framework for the study of fluctuations in the nonequilibrium relaxation of glassy systems with and without quenched disorder. We study two types of two-time local correlators with the aim of characterizing the heterogeneous evolution in these systems: in one case we average the local correlators over histories of the thermal noise, in the other case we simply coarse-grain the local correlators obtained for a given noise realization. We explain why the noise-averaged correlators describe the fingerprint of quenched disorder when it exists, while the coarse-grained correlators are linked to noise-induced mesoscopic fluctuations. We predict constraints on the distribution of the fluctuations of the coarse-grained quantities. In particular, we show that locally defined correlations and responses are connected by a generalized local out-of-equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation. We argue that large size heterogeneities in the age of the system survive in the long-time limit. A symmetry of the underlying theory, namely invariance under reparametrizations of the time coordinates, underlies these results. We establish a connection between the probabilities of spatial distributions of local coarse-grained quantities and the theory of dynamic random manifolds. We define, and discuss the behavior of, a two-time dependent correlation length from the spatial decay of the fluctuations in the two-time local functions. We characterize the fluctuations in the system in terms of their fractal properties. For concreteness, we present numerical tests performed on disordered spin models in finite and infinite dimensions. Finally, we explain how these ideas can be applied to the analysis of the dynamics of other glassy systems that can be either spin models without disorder or atomic and molecular glassy systems. (author)

Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vertical Transmission and Vaccination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anqi Miao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.

Population responses to environmental change in a tropical ant: the interaction of spatial and temporal dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Doug; Vandermeer, John; Perfecto, Ivette; Philpott, Stacy M

2014-01-01

Spatial structure can have a profound, but often underappreciated, effect on the temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Here we report on a counterintuitive increase in the population of a tree-nesting ant, Azteca sericeasur, in response to a drastic reduction in the number of potential nesting sites. This surprising result is comprehensible when viewed in the context of the self-organized spatial dynamics of the ants and their effect on the ants' dispersal-limited natural enemies. Approximately 30% of the trees in the study site, a coffee agroecosystem in southern Mexico, were pruned or felled over a two-year period, and yet the abundance of the ant nests more than doubled over the seven-year study. Throughout the transition, the spatial distribution of the ants maintained a power-law distribution - a signal of spatial self organization - but the local clustering of the nests was reduced post-pruning. A cellular automata model incorporating the changed spatial structure of the ants and the resulting partial escape from antagonists reproduced the observed increase in abundance, highlighting how self-organized spatial dynamics can profoundly influence the responses of ecosystems to perturbations.

Population responses to environmental change in a tropical ant: the interaction of spatial and temporal dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doug Jackson

Full Text Available Spatial structure can have a profound, but often underappreciated, effect on the temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Here we report on a counterintuitive increase in the population of a tree-nesting ant, Azteca sericeasur, in response to a drastic reduction in the number of potential nesting sites. This surprising result is comprehensible when viewed in the context of the self-organized spatial dynamics of the ants and their effect on the ants' dispersal-limited natural enemies. Approximately 30% of the trees in the study site, a coffee agroecosystem in southern Mexico, were pruned or felled over a two-year period, and yet the abundance of the ant nests more than doubled over the seven-year study. Throughout the transition, the spatial distribution of the ants maintained a power-law distribution - a signal of spatial self organization - but the local clustering of the nests was reduced post-pruning. A cellular automata model incorporating the changed spatial structure of the ants and the resulting partial escape from antagonists reproduced the observed increase in abundance, highlighting how self-organized spatial dynamics can profoundly influence the responses of ecosystems to perturbations.

Matrix of transmission in structural dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mukherjee, S.

1975-01-01

Within the last few years numerous papers have been published on the subject of matrix method in elasto-mechanics. 'Matrix of Transmission' is one of the methods in this field which has gained considerable attention in recent years. The basic philosophy adopted in this method is based on the idea of breaking up a complicated system into component parts with simple elastic and dynamic properties which can be readily expressed in matrix form. These component matrices are considered as building blocks, which are fitted together according to a set of predetermined rules which then provide the static and dynamic properties of the entire system. A common type of system occuring in engineering practice consists of a number of elements linked together end to end in the form of a chain. The 'Transfer Matrix' is ideally suited for such a system, because only successive multiplication is necessary to connect these elements together. The number of degrees of freedom and intermediate conditions present no difficulty. Although the 'Transfer Matrix' method is suitable for the treatment of branched and coupled systems its application to systems which do not have predominant chain topology is not effective. Apart from the requirement that the system be linearely elastic, no other restrictions are made. In this paper, it is intended to give a general outline and theoretical formulation of 'Transfer Matrix' and then its application to actual problems in structural dynamics related to seismic analysis. The natural frequencies of a freely vibrating elastic system can be found by applying proper end conditions. The end conditions will yield the frequency determinate to zero. By using a suitable numerical method, the natural frequencies and mode shapes are determined by making a frequency sweep within the range of interest. Results of an analysis of a typical nuclear building by this method show very close agreement with the results obtained by using ASKA and SAP IV program. Therefore

A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy. Von Holle

2010-01-01

Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

Continuous time modelling of dynamical spatial lattice data observed at sparsely distributed times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Møller, Jesper

2007-01-01

Summary. We consider statistical and computational aspects of simulation-based Bayesian inference for a spatial-temporal model based on a multivariate point process which is only observed at sparsely distributed times. The point processes are indexed by the sites of a spatial lattice......, and they exhibit spatial interaction. For specificity we consider a particular dynamical spatial lattice data set which has previously been analysed by a discrete time model involving unknown normalizing constants. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using continuous time processes compared...... with discrete time processes in the setting of the present paper as well as other spatial-temporal situations....

Dynamic synthesis for the energy transmission systems long term planning; Sintese dinamica para o planejamento a longo prazo de sistemas de transmissao de energia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salles Filho, Anirio

1988-12-01

An automation methodology for dynamic synthesis of electric power transmission network is presented. The dynamic synthesis problem is formulated by an optimization mathematical model. The use of a Lagrangian Relaxation strategy allows to decompose the dynamic problem in a simpler static subproblems sequence. The developed model goal is to establish options of system expansion that minimize the investments total costs and satisfy the increasing demand in time. The method is tested in transmission networks Brazilian system and the obtained results show the utility of a dynamic synthesis tool to assist in complex task of planing the transmission system expansion.

Transmission dynamics of two dengue serotypes with vaccination scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

González Morales, N L; Núñez-López, M; Ramos-Castañeda, J; Velasco-Hernández, J X

2017-05-01

In this work we present a mathematical model that incorporates two Dengue serotypes. The model has been constructed to study both the epidemiological trends of the disease and conditions that allow coexistence in competing strains under vaccination. We consider two viral strains and temporary cross-immunity with one vector mosquito population. Results suggest that vaccination scenarios will not only reduce disease incidence but will also modify the transmission dynamics. Indeed, vaccination and cross immunity period are seen to decrease the frequency and magnitude of outbreaks but in a differentiated manner with specific effects depending upon the interaction vaccine and strain type. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of landscape factors and management decisions on spatial and temporal patterns of the transmission of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marilyn O’Hara Ruiz

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Chronic wasting disease (CWD has been reported in white-tailed deer at the border of the US states of Illinois and Wisconsin since 2002. Transmission of infectious prions between animals and from the environment has resulted in spatial and temporal structure observable in the spatio-temporal patterns of reported cases. Case locations of 382 positive cases from 28,954 deer tested between 2002 and 2009 provided insight into the potential risk factors and landscape features associated with transmission using a combination of clustering, generalised linear modelling and descriptive evaluations of a risk map of predicted cases of CWD. A species distribution map of white-tailed deer developed using MaxEnt provided an estimate of deer locations. We found that deer probability increased in areas with larger forests and less urban and agricultural lands. Spatial clustering analysis revealed a core area of persistent CWD transmission in the northern part of the region. The regression model indicated that larger and more compact forests were associated with higher risk for CWD. High risk areas also had soils with less clay and more sand than other parts of the region. The transmission potential was higher where landscape features indicated the potential for higher deer concentrations. The inclusion of spatial lag variables improved the model. Of the 102 cases reported in the study area in the two years following the study period, 89 (87% of those were in the 32% of the study area with the highest 50% of predicted risk of cases.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use pattern response to ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Urban settlements account for only two percent of the Earth's land surface. However, over half of the world's population resides in cities (United Nations, 2001). The quantitative evidences presented here showed that there were drastic changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of land use/land cover. As an overall ...

Livestock-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus in pigs - prevalence, risk factors and transmission dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Broens, E.M.

2011-01-01

In 2004, an association between human carriage of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and contact with pigs was found. To assess the implications of this finding for veterinary and public health more insight into the prevalence, risk factors and transmission dynamics of

Border Malaria Associated with Multidrug Resistance on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia Borders: Transmission Dynamic, Vulnerability, and Surveillance

Science.gov (United States)

Bhumiratana, Adisak; Intarapuk, Apiradee; Sorosjinda-Nunthawarasilp, Prapa; Maneekan, Pannamas; Koyadun, Surachart

2013-01-01

This systematic review elaborates the concepts and impacts of border malaria, particularly on the emergence and spread of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax multidrug resistance (MDR) malaria on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia borders. Border malaria encompasses any complex epidemiological settings of forest-related and forest fringe-related malaria, both regularly occurring in certain transmission areas and manifesting a trend of increased incidence in transmission prone areas along these borders, as the result of interconnections of human settlements and movement activities, cross-border population migrations, ecological changes, vector population dynamics, and multidrug resistance. For regional and global perspectives, this review analyzes and synthesizes the rationales pertaining to transmission dynamics and the vulnerabilities of border malaria that constrain surveillance and control of the world's most MDR falciparum and vivax malaria on these chaotic borders. PMID:23865048

Network information analysis reveals risk perception transmission in a behaviour-influenza dynamics system.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, C-M; You, S-H; Cheng, Y-H

2015-01-01

Influenza poses a significant public health burden worldwide. Understanding how and to what extent people would change their behaviour in response to influenza outbreaks is critical for formulating public health policies. We incorporated the information-theoretic framework into a behaviour-influenza (BI) transmission dynamics system in order to understand the effects of individual behavioural change on influenza epidemics. We showed that information transmission of risk perception played a crucial role in the spread of health-seeking behaviour throughout influenza epidemics. Here a network BI model provides a new approach for understanding the risk perception spread and human behavioural change during disease outbreaks. Our study allows simultaneous consideration of epidemiological, psychological, and social factors as predictors of individual perception rates in behaviour-disease transmission systems. We suggest that a monitoring system with precise information on risk perception should be constructed to effectively promote health behaviours in preparation for emerging disease outbreaks.

A multi-objective framework for dynamic transmission expansion planning in competitive electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foroud, Asghar Akbari; Abdoos, Ali Akbar; Keypour, Reza; Amirahmadi, Meisam

2010-01-01

Restructuring of power system has changed the traditional planning objectives and introduced challenges in the field of Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP). Due to these changes, new approaches and criteria are needed for transmission planning in deregulated environment. Therefore, in this paper, a dynamic expansion methodology is presented using a multi-objective optimization framework. Investment cost, congestion cost and reliability are considered in the optimization as three objectives. To overcome the difficulties in solving the non-convex and mixed integer nature of the optimization problems, a Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA II) approach is used followed by a fuzzy decision making analysis to obtain the final optimal solution. The planning methodology has been demonstrated on the IEEE 24-bus test system and north-east of Iran national 400 kV transmission grid to show the feasibility and capabilities of the proposed algorithm in electricity market environment. (author)

Portraying Temporal Dynamics of Urban Spatial Divisions with Mobile Phone Positioning Data: A Complex Network Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Zhou

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Spatial structure is a fundamental characteristic of cities that influences the urban functioning to a large extent. While administrative partitioning is generally done in the form of static spatial division, understanding a more temporally dynamic structure of the urban space would benefit urban planning and management immensely. This study makes use of a large-scale mobile phone positioning dataset to characterize the diurnal dynamics of the interaction-based urban spatial structure. To extract the temporally vibrant structure, spatial interaction networks at different times are constructed based on the movement connections of individuals between geographical units. Complex network community detection technique is applied to identify the spatial divisions as well as to quantify their temporal dynamics. Empirical analysis is conducted using data containing all user positions on a typical weekday in Shenzhen, China. Results are compared with official zoning and planned structure and indicate a certain degree of expansion in urban central areas and fragmentation in industrial suburban areas. A high level of variability in spatial divisions at different times of day is detected with some distinct temporal features. Peak and pre-/post-peak hours witness the most prominent fluctuation in spatial division indicating significant change in the characteristics of movements and activities during these periods of time. Findings of this study demonstrate great potential of large-scale mobility data in supporting intelligent spatial decision making and providing valuable knowledge to the urban planning sectors.

Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christel Kamp

Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

Impact of Public Safety Policies on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission Dynamics in Tijuana, Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehta, Sanjay R; Chaillon, Antoine; Gaines, Tommi L; Gonzalez-Zuniga, Patricia E; Stockman, Jamila K; Almanza-Reyes, Horatio; Chavez, Jose Roman; Vera, Alicia; Wagner, Karla D; Patterson, Thomas L; Scott, Brianna; Smith, Davey M; Strathdee, Steffanie A

2018-02-10

North Tijuana, Mexico is home to many individuals at high risk for transmitting and acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Recently, policy shifts by local government impacted how these individuals were handled by authorities. Here we examined how this affected regional HIV transmission dynamics. HIV pol sequences and associated demographic information were collected from 8 research studies enrolling persons in Tijuana and were used to infer viral transmission patterns. To evaluate the impact of recent policy changes on HIV transmission dynamics, qualitative interviews were performed on a subset of recently infected individuals. Between 2004 and 2016, 288 unique HIV pol sequences were obtained from individuals in Tijuana, including 46.4% from men who have sex with men, 42.1% from individuals reporting transactional sex, and 27.8% from persons who inject drugs (some individuals had >1 risk factor). Forty-two percent of sequences linked to at least 1 other sequence, forming 37 transmission clusters. Thirty-two individuals seroconverted during the observation period, including 8 between April and July 2016. Three of these individuals were putatively linked together. Qualitative interviews suggested changes in policing led individuals to shift locations of residence and injection drug use, leading to increased risk taking (eg, sharing needles). Near real-time molecular epidemiologic analyses identified a cluster of linked transmissions temporally associated with policy shifts. Interviews suggested these shifts may have led to increased risk taking among individuals at high risk for HIV acquisition. With all public policy shifts, downstream impacts need to be carefully considered, as even well-intentioned policies can have major public health consequences. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Langevin Dynamics with Spatial Correlations as a Model for Electron-Phonon Coupling

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Tamm, A.; Caro, M.; Caro, A.; Samolyuk, G.; Klintenberg, M.; Correa, A. A.

2018-05-01

Stochastic Langevin dynamics has been traditionally used as a tool to describe nonequilibrium processes. When utilized in systems with collective modes, traditional Langevin dynamics relaxes all modes indiscriminately, regardless of their wavelength. We propose a generalization of Langevin dynamics that can capture a differential coupling between collective modes and the bath, by introducing spatial correlations in the random forces. This allows modeling the electronic subsystem in a metal as a generalized Langevin bath endowed with a concept of locality, greatly improving the capabilities of the two-temperature model. The specific form proposed here for the spatial correlations produces a physical wave-vector and polarization dependency of the relaxation produced by the electron-phonon coupling in a solid. We show that the resulting model can be used for describing the path to equilibration of ions and electrons and also as a thermostat to sample the equilibrium canonical ensemble. By extension, the family of models presented here can be applied in general to any dense system, solids, alloys, and dense plasmas. As an example, we apply the model to study the nonequilibrium dynamics of an electron-ion two-temperature Ni crystal.

Spatial-temporal-spectral EEG patterns of BOLD functional network connectivity dynamics

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Lamoš, Martin; Mareček, Radek; Slavíček, Tomáš; Mikl, Michal; Rektor, Ivan; Jan, Jiří

2018-06-01

Objective. Growing interest in the examination of large-scale brain network functional connectivity dynamics is accompanied by an effort to find the electrophysiological correlates. The commonly used constraints applied to spatial and spectral domains during electroencephalogram (EEG) data analysis may leave part of the neural activity unrecognized. We propose an approach that blindly reveals multimodal EEG spectral patterns that are related to the dynamics of the BOLD functional network connectivity. Approach. The blind decomposition of EEG spectrogram by parallel factor analysis has been shown to be a useful technique for uncovering patterns of neural activity. The simultaneously acquired BOLD fMRI data were decomposed by independent component analysis. Dynamic functional connectivity was computed on the component’s time series using a sliding window correlation, and between-network connectivity states were then defined based on the values of the correlation coefficients. ANOVA tests were performed to assess the relationships between the dynamics of between-network connectivity states and the fluctuations of EEG spectral patterns. Main results. We found three patterns related to the dynamics of between-network connectivity states. The first pattern has dominant peaks in the alpha, beta, and gamma bands and is related to the dynamics between the auditory, sensorimotor, and attentional networks. The second pattern, with dominant peaks in the theta and low alpha bands, is related to the visual and default mode network. The third pattern, also with peaks in the theta and low alpha bands, is related to the auditory and frontal network. Significance. Our previous findings revealed a relationship between EEG spectral pattern fluctuations and the hemodynamics of large-scale brain networks. In this study, we suggest that the relationship also exists at the level of functional connectivity dynamics among large-scale brain networks when no standard spatial and spectral

Spatial dynamics of the red grouper Epinephelus morio (Pisces: Serranidae on the Campeche Bank, Gulf of Mexico

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Jorge A. López-Rocha

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The spatial dynamics of the red grouper Epinephelus morio plays a fundamental role in the fishery management on the Campeche Bank, where it is overfished. The objective of this study was to characterize the spatial dynamics of this population. We used a dynamic model of spatial distribution to estimate population movement rates between adjacent areas. The model was applied using information on catch per unit effort and length-frequency distributions for the Mexican mid-sized fleet that operated in the area in the period 1973-1977. These data were chosen to ensure that the information would reflect the condition of the resource before overfishing. It was possible to quantify the spatial dynamics of the red grouper and the results were consistent with previously known movement patterns. The results showed different movement rates and temporal patterns of movement for different population sectors. The spawning aggregations and the seasonal upwelling occurring in the eastern part of the Bank were considered as key factors influencing the pattern of population movements.

Dynamic epidemiological models for dengue transmission: a systematic review of structural approaches.

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Mathieu Andraud

Full Text Available Dengue is a vector-borne disease recognized as the major arbovirose with four immunologically distant dengue serotypes coexisting in many endemic areas. Several mathematical models have been developed to understand the transmission dynamics of dengue, including the role of cross-reactive antibodies for the four different dengue serotypes. We aimed to review deterministic models of dengue transmission, in order to summarize the evolution of insights for, and provided by, such models, and to identify important characteristics for future model development. We identified relevant publications using PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge, focusing on mathematical deterministic models of dengue transmission. Model assumptions were systematically extracted from each reviewed model structure, and were linked with their underlying epidemiological concepts. After defining common terms in vector-borne disease modelling, we generally categorised fourty-two published models of interest into single serotype and multiserotype models. The multi-serotype models assumed either vector-host or direct host-to-host transmission (ignoring the vector component. For each approach, we discussed the underlying structural and parameter assumptions, threshold behaviour and the projected impact of interventions. In view of the expected availability of dengue vaccines, modelling approaches will increasingly focus on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination options. For this purpose, the level of representation of the vector and host populations seems pivotal. Since vector-host transmission models would be required for projections of combined vaccination and vector control interventions, we advocate their use as most relevant to advice health policy in the future. The limited understanding of the factors which influence dengue transmission as well as limited data availability remain important concerns when applying dengue models to real-world decision problems.

Dynamic Raman imaging system with high spatial and temporal resolution

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Wang, Lei; Dai, Yinzhen; He, Hao; Lv, Ruiqi; Zong, Cheng; Ren, Bin

2017-09-01

There is an increasing need to study dynamic changing systems with significantly high spatial and temporal resolutions. In this work, we integrated point-scanning, line-scanning, and wide-field Raman imaging techniques into a single system. By using an Electron Multiplying CCD (EMCCD) with a high gain and high frame rate, we significantly reduced the time required for wide-field imaging, making it possible to monitor the electrochemical reactions in situ. The highest frame rate of EMCDD was ˜50 fps, and the Raman images for a specific Raman peak can be obtained by passing the signal from the sample through the Liquid Crystal Tunable Filter. The spatial resolutions of scanning imaging and wide-field imaging with a 100× objective (NA = 0.9) are 0.5 × 0.5 μm2 and 0.36 × 0.36 μm2, respectively. The system was used to study the surface plasmon resonance of Au nanorods, the surface-enhanced Raman scattering signal distribution for Au Nanoparticle aggregates, and dynamic Raman imaging of an electrochemical reacting system.

Changing spatial epidemiology of pertussis in continental USA.

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Choisy, Marc; Rohani, Pejman

2012-11-22

Prediction and control of the geographical spread of emerging pathogens has become a central public health issue. Because these infectious diseases are by definition novel, there are few data to characterize their dynamics. One possible solution to this problem is to apply lessons learnt from analyses of historical data on familiar and epidemiologically similar pathogens. However, the portability of the spatial ecology of an infectious disease in a different epoch to other infections remains unexamined. Here, we study this issue by taking advantage of the recent re-emergence of pertussis in the United States to compare its spatial transmission dynamics throughout the 1950s with the past decade. We report 4-year waves, sweeping across the continent in the 1950s. These waves are shown to emanate from highly synchronous foci in the northwest and northeast coasts. In contrast, the recent resurgence of the disease is characterized by 5.5-year epidemics with no particular spatial structure. We interpret this to be the result of dramatic changes in patterns of human movement over the second half of the last century, together with changing age distribution of pertussis. We conclude that extrapolation regarding the spatial spread of contemporaneous pathogens based on analyses of historical incidence may be potentially very misleading.

Transmission dynamics and resistance in staphylococci

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hetem, D.J.

2015-01-01

This thesis will focus on nosocomial transmission and resistance of S. aureus and CoNS. After the general introduction on S. aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci, part II focuses on the nosocomial transmission capacity of different MRSA clones in the hospital setting. In chapter 2 the

Border Malaria Associated with Multidrug Resistance on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia Borders: Transmission Dynamic, Vulnerability, and Surveillance

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Adisak Bhumiratana

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This systematic review elaborates the concepts and impacts of border malaria, particularly on the emergence and spread of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax multidrug resistance (MDR malaria on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia borders. Border malaria encompasses any complex epidemiological settings of forest-related and forest fringe-related malaria, both regularly occurring in certain transmission areas and manifesting a trend of increased incidence in transmission prone areas along these borders, as the result of interconnections of human settlements and movement activities, cross-border population migrations, ecological changes, vector population dynamics, and multidrug resistance. For regional and global perspectives, this review analyzes and synthesizes the rationales pertaining to transmission dynamics and the vulnerabilities of border malaria that constrain surveillance and control of the world’s most MDR falciparum and vivax malaria on these chaotic borders.

Role of update dynamics in the collective cooperation on the spatial snowdrift games: Beyond unconditional imitation and replicator dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xia Chengyi; Wang Juan; Wang Li; Sun Shiwen; Sun Junqing; Wang Jinsong

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We investigate the role of update rules in the spatial snowdrift game on regular lattices. ► Compared with UI and replicator rules, the cooperation can be further promoted by the Moran rule. ► f c and the cluster formation pattern for these three update rules are carefully explored. ► The frequency of cooperators is insensitive to the random initial set of players. - Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the role of update or imitation rules in the spatial snowdrift game on regular lattices. Three different update rules, including unconditional imitation (UI), replicator dynamics (RD) and the Moran process, are utilized to update the strategies of focal players during the game process in the spatial snowdrift on the lattice. We observe that the aggregate cooperation level between players is largely elevated by using the Moran process in the spatial snowdrift game, when compared to the UI or replicator dynamics. Meanwhile, we carefully explore the dynamical evolution of frequency of cooperators and the cluster formation pattern for these three update rules. Moreover, it is also shown that the evolutionary behavior under the Moran update is independent of and insensitive to the randomly initial configurations of cooperators and defectors. The current results clearly indicate that the introduction of moderate randomness in the strategy update will highly promote the maintenance and persistence of cooperation among selfish individuals, which will be greatly instrumental to deeply understand the evolution of cooperation within many natural, biological and social systems.

Understanding the Complexity of Temperature Dynamics in Xinjiang, China, from Multitemporal Scale and Spatial Perspectives

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Jianhua Xu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Based on the observed data from 51 meteorological stations during the period from 1958 to 2012 in Xinjiang, China, we investigated the complexity of temperature dynamics from the temporal and spatial perspectives by using a comprehensive approach including the correlation dimension (CD, classical statistics, and geostatistics. The main conclusions are as follows (1 The integer CD values indicate that the temperature dynamics are a complex and chaotic system, which is sensitive to the initial conditions. (2 The complexity of temperature dynamics decreases along with the increase of temporal scale. To describe the temperature dynamics, at least 3 independent variables are needed at daily scale, whereas at least 2 independent variables are needed at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. (3 The spatial patterns of CD values at different temporal scales indicate that the complex temperature dynamics are derived from the complex landform.

Clustering Effect on the Dynamics in a Spatial Rock-Paper-Scissors System

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Hashimoto, Tsuyoshi; Sato, Kazunori; Ichinose, Genki; Miyazaki, Rinko; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

2018-01-01

The lattice dynamics for rock-paper-scissors games is related to population theories in ecology. In most cases, simulations are performed by local and global interactions. It is known in the former case that the dynamics is usually stable. We find two types of non-random distributions in the stationary state. One is a cluster formation of endangered species: when the density of a species approaches zero, its clumping degree diverges to infinity. The other is the strong aggregations of high-density species. Such spatial pattern formations play important roles in population dynamics.

Dynamically prioritized progressive transmission

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Blanford, Ronald

1992-04-01

Retrieval of image data from a centralized database may be subject to bandwidth limitations, whether due to a low-bandwidth communications link or to contention from simultaneous accesses over a high-bandwidth link. Progressive transmission can alleviate this problem by encoding image data so that any prefix of the data stream approximates the complete image at a coarse level of resolution. The longer the prefix, the finer the resolution. In many cases, as little at 1 percent of the image data may be sufficient to decide whether to discard the image, to permit the retrieval to continue, or to restrict retrieval to a subsection of the image. Our approach treats resolution not as a fixed attribute of the image, but rather as a resource which may be allocated to portions of the image at the direction of a user-specified priority function. The default priority function minimizes error by allocating more resolution to regions of high variance. The user may also point to regions of interest requesting priority transmission. More advanced target recognition strategies may be incorporated at the user's discretion. Multispectral imagery is supported. The user engineering implications are profounded. There is immediate response to a query that might otherwise take minutes to complete. The data is transmitted in small increments so that no single user dominates the communications bandwidth. The user-directed improvement means that bandwidth is focused on interesting information. The user may continue working with the first coarse approximations while further image data is still arriving. The algorithm has been implemented in C on Sun, Silicon Graphics, and NeXT workstations, and in Lisp on a Symbolics. Transmission speeds reach as high as 60,000 baud using a Sparc or 68040 processor when storing data to memory; somewhat less if also updating a graphical display. The memory requirements are roughly five bytes per image pixel. Both computational and memory costs may be reduced

Modeling and Validation of Environmental Suitability for Schistosomiasis Transmission Using Remote Sensing.

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Walz, Yvonne; Wegmann, Martin; Dech, Stefan; Vounatsou, Penelope; Poda, Jean-Noël; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Utzinger, Jürg; Raso, Giovanna

2015-11-01

Schistosomiasis is the most widespread water-based disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and human water contact patterns. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. We investigated the potential of remote sensing to characterize habitat conditions of parasite and intermediate host snails and discuss the relevance for public health. We employed high-resolution remote sensing data, environmental field measurements, and ecological data to model environmental suitability for schistosomiasis-related parasite and snail species. The model was developed for Burkina Faso using a habitat suitability index (HSI). The plausibility of remote sensing habitat variables was validated using field measurements. The established model was transferred to different ecological settings in Côte d'Ivoire and validated against readily available survey data from school-aged children. Environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission was spatially delineated and quantified by seven habitat variables derived from remote sensing data. The strengths and weaknesses highlighted by the plausibility analysis showed that temporal dynamic water and vegetation measures were particularly useful to model parasite and snail habitat suitability, whereas the measurement of water surface temperature and topographic variables did not perform appropriately. The transferability of the model showed significant relations between the HSI and infection prevalence in study sites of Côte d'Ivoire. A predictive map of environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission can support measures to gain and sustain control. This is particularly relevant as emphasis is shifting from morbidity control to interrupting transmission. Further validation of our mechanistic model needs to be complemented by field data of parasite- and snail

Urban Land Expansion and Spatial Dynamics in Globalizing Shanghai

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Han Li

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Urban land expansion in China has attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, more work is needed to apply spatial modeling to understanding the mechanisms of urban growth from both institutional and physical perspectives. This paper analyzes urban expansion in Shanghai and its development zones (DZs. We find that, as nodes of global-local interface, the DZs are the most significant components of urban growth in Shanghai, and major spatial patterns of urban expansion in Shanghai are infilling and edge expansion. We apply logistic regression, geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR and spatial regime regression to investigate the determinants of urban land expansion including physical conditions, state policy and land development. Regressions reveal that, though the market has been an important driving force in urban growth, the state has played a predominant role through the implementation of urban planning and the establishment of DZs to fully capitalize on globalization. We also find that differences in urban growth dynamics exist between the areas inside and outside of the DZs. Finally, this paper discusses policies to promote sustainable development in Shanghai.

Hydroclimatic influences on seasonal and spatial cholera transmission cycles: Implications for public health intervention in the Bengal Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Jutla, Antarpreet S.; Alam, Munirul; de Magny, Guillaume Constantin; Siddique, A. Kasem; Sack, R. Bradley; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.; Islam, Shafiqul

2011-03-01

Cholera remains a major public health threat in many developing countries around the world. The striking seasonality and annual recurrence of this infectious disease in endemic areas remain of considerable interest to scientists and public health workers. Despite major advances in the ecological and microbiological understanding of Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of the disease, the role of underlying large-scale hydroclimatic processes in propagating the disease for different seasons and spatial locations is not well understood. Here we show that the cholera outbreaks in the Bengal Delta region are propagated from the coastal to the inland areas and from spring to fall by two distinctly different transmission cycles, premonsoon and postmonsoon, influenced by coastal and terrestrial hydroclimatic processes, respectively. A coupled analysis of the regional hydroclimate and cholera incidence reveals a strong association of the space-time variability of incidence peaks with seasonal processes and extreme climatic events. We explain how the asymmetric seasonal hydroclimatology affects regional cholera dynamics by providing a coastal growth environment for bacteria in spring, while propagating the disease to fall by monsoon flooding. Our findings may serve as the basis for "climate-informed" early warnings and for prompting effective means for intervention and preempting epidemic cholera outbreaks in vulnerable regions.

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heesterbeek, Hans|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073321427; Anderson, Roy M; Andreasen, Viggo; Bansal, Shweta; De Angelis, Daniela; Dye, Chris; Eames, Ken T D; Edmunds, W John; Frost, Simon D W; Funk, Sebastian; Hollingsworth, T Deirdre; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Klepac, Petra; Lessler, Justin; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Roberts, Mick G; Viboud, Cecile

2015-01-01

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales,

Potential and flux field landscape theory. I. Global stability and dynamics of spatially dependent non-equilibrium systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Wei; Wang, Jin

2013-09-28

We established a potential and flux field landscape theory to quantify the global stability and dynamics of general spatially dependent non-equilibrium deterministic and stochastic systems. We extended our potential and flux landscape theory for spatially independent non-equilibrium stochastic systems described by Fokker-Planck equations to spatially dependent stochastic systems governed by general functional Fokker-Planck equations as well as functional Kramers-Moyal equations derived from master equations. Our general theory is applied to reaction-diffusion systems. For equilibrium spatially dependent systems with detailed balance, the potential field landscape alone, defined in terms of the steady state probability distribution functional, determines the global stability and dynamics of the system. The global stability of the system is closely related to the topography of the potential field landscape in terms of the basins of attraction and barrier heights in the field configuration state space. The effective driving force of the system is generated by the functional gradient of the potential field alone. For non-equilibrium spatially dependent systems, the curl probability flux field is indispensable in breaking detailed balance and creating non-equilibrium condition for the system. A complete characterization of the non-equilibrium dynamics of the spatially dependent system requires both the potential field and the curl probability flux field. While the non-equilibrium potential field landscape attracts the system down along the functional gradient similar to an electron moving in an electric field, the non-equilibrium flux field drives the system in a curly way similar to an electron moving in a magnetic field. In the small fluctuation limit, the intrinsic potential field as the small fluctuation limit of the potential field for spatially dependent non-equilibrium systems, which is closely related to the steady state probability distribution functional, is

Time-resolved X-ray transmission microscopy on magnetic microstructures; Zeitaufloesende Roentgentransmissionsmikroskopie an magnetischen Mikrostrukturen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Puzic, Aleksandar

2007-10-23

Three excitation schemes were designed for stroboscopic imaging of magnetization dynamics with time-resolved magnetic transmission X-ray microscopy (TR-MTXM). These techniques were implemented into two types of X-ray microscopes, namely the imaging transmission X-ray microscope (ITXM) and the scanning transmission X-ray microscope (STXM), both installed at the electron storage ring of the Advanced Light Source in Berkeley, USA. Circular diffraction gratings (Fresnel zone plates) used in both microscopes as focusing and imaging elements presently allow for lateral resolution down to 30 nm. Magnetic imaging is performed by using the X-ray magnetic circular dichroism (XMCD) as element specific contrast mechanism. The developed methods have been successfully applied to the experimental investigation of magnetization dynamics in ferromagnetic microstructures. A temporal resolution well below 100 ps was achieved. A conventional pump-probe technique was implemented first. The dynamic response of the magnetization excited by a broadband pulsed magnetic field was imaged spatially resolved using focused X-ray flashes. As a complementary method, the spatially resolved ferromagnetic resonance (SR-FMR) technique was developed for experimental study of magnetization dynamics in the frequency domain. As a third excitation mode, the burst excitation was implemented. The performance and efficiency of the developed methods have been demonstrated by imaging the local magnetization dynamics in laterally patterned ferromagnetic thin-film elements and three-layer stacks. The existence of multiple eigenmodes in the excitation spectra of ferromagnetic microstructures has been verified by using the pump-probe technique. Magnetostatic spin waves were selectively excited and detected with a time resolution of 50 ps using the SR-FMR technique. Thorough analysis of 20 in most cases independently prepared samples has verified that vortices which exhibit a low-amplitude switching of their core

Spatial and dynamic organization of molecular structures in the cell nucleus

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwer, Anne-Kee

2010-01-01

In this thesis we attempt to provide a better understanding of the principles that underlie the spatial dynamic organization of the cell nucleus. Chapter 1 reviews the current status of knowledge about the structural and functional organization of the cell nucleus. In chapter 2, the development of a

PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

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Retno Widyaningrum

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

Speckle and fringe dynamics in imagingspeckle-pattern interferometry for spatial-filtering velocimetry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, Michael Linde; Iversen, Theis F. Q.; Yura, Harold T.

2011-01-01

This paper analyzes the dynamics of laser speckles and fringes, formed in an imaging-speckle-pattern interferometer with the purpose of sensing linear three-dimensional motion and out-of-plane components of rotation in real time, using optical spatial-filtering-velocimetry techniques. The ensemble......-average definition of the cross-correlation function is applied to the intensity distributions, obtained in the observation plane at two positions of the object. The theoretical analysis provides a description for the dynamics of both the speckles and the fringes. The analysis reveals that both the magnitude...... and direction of all three linear displacement components of the object movement can be determined. Simultaneously, out-ofplane rotation of the object including the corresponding directions can be determined from the spatial gradient of the in-plane fringe motion throughout the observation plane. The theory...

Dynamic Post-Earthquake Image Segmentation with an Adaptive Spectral-Spatial Descriptor

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Genyun Sun

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The region merging algorithm is a widely used segmentation technique for very high resolution (VHR remote sensing images. However, the segmentation of post-earthquake VHR images is more difficult due to the complexity of these images, especially high intra-class and low inter-class variability among damage objects. Herein two key issues must be resolved: the first is to find an appropriate descriptor to measure the similarity of two adjacent regions since they exhibit high complexity among the diverse damage objects, such as landslides, debris flow, and collapsed buildings. The other is how to solve over-segmentation and under-segmentation problems, which are commonly encountered with conventional merging strategies due to their strong dependence on local information. To tackle these two issues, an adaptive dynamic region merging approach (ADRM is introduced, which combines an adaptive spectral-spatial descriptor and a dynamic merging strategy to adapt to the changes of merging regions for successfully detecting objects scattered globally in a post-earthquake image. In the new descriptor, the spectral similarity and spatial similarity of any two adjacent regions are automatically combined to measure their similarity. Accordingly, the new descriptor offers adaptive semantic descriptions for geo-objects and thus is capable of characterizing different damage objects. Besides, in the dynamic region merging strategy, the adaptive spectral-spatial descriptor is embedded in the defined testing order and combined with graph models to construct a dynamic merging strategy. The new strategy can find the global optimal merging order and ensures that the most similar regions are merged at first. With combination of the two strategies, ADRM can identify spatially scattered objects and alleviates the phenomenon of over-segmentation and under-segmentation. The performance of ADRM has been evaluated by comparing with four state-of-the-art segmentation methods

Spatial integration and cortical dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, C D; Das, A; Ito, M; Kapadia, M; Westheimer, G

1996-01-23

Cells in adult primary visual cortex are capable of integrating information over much larger portions of the visual field than was originally thought. Moreover, their receptive field properties can be altered by the context within which local features are presented and by changes in visual experience. The substrate for both spatial integration and cortical plasticity is likely to be found in a plexus of long-range horizontal connections, formed by cortical pyramidal cells, which link cells within each cortical area over distances of 6-8 mm. The relationship between horizontal connections and cortical functional architecture suggests a role in visual segmentation and spatial integration. The distribution of lateral interactions within striate cortex was visualized with optical recording, and their functional consequences were explored by using comparable stimuli in human psychophysical experiments and in recordings from alert monkeys. They may represent the substrate for perceptual phenomena such as illusory contours, surface fill-in, and contour saliency. The dynamic nature of receptive field properties and cortical architecture has been seen over time scales ranging from seconds to months. One can induce a remapping of the topography of visual cortex by making focal binocular retinal lesions. Shorter-term plasticity of cortical receptive fields was observed following brief periods of visual stimulation. The mechanisms involved entailed, for the short-term changes, altering the effectiveness of existing cortical connections, and for the long-term changes, sprouting of axon collaterals and synaptogenesis. The mutability of cortical function implies a continual process of calibration and normalization of the perception of visual attributes that is dependent on sensory experience throughout adulthood and might further represent the mechanism of perceptual learning.

Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: a spectral method.

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Brand, Samuel P C; Tildesley, Michael J; Keeling, Matthew J

2015-04-07

Spatial structure and hence the spatial position of host populations plays a vital role in the spread of infection. In the majority of situations, it is only possible to predict the spatial spread of infection using simulation models, which can be computationally demanding especially for large population sizes. Here we develop an approximation method that vastly reduces this computational burden. We assume that the transmission rates between individuals or sub-populations are determined by a spatial transmission kernel. This kernel is assumed to be isotropic, such that the transmission rate is simply a function of the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals; as such this provides the ideal mechanism for modelling localised transmission in a spatial environment. We show that the spatial force of infection acting on all susceptibles can be represented as a spatial convolution between the transmission kernel and a spatially extended 'image' of the infection state. This representation allows the rapid calculation of stochastic rates of infection using fast-Fourier transform (FFT) routines, which greatly improves the computational efficiency of spatial simulations. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of this fast spectral rate recalculation (FSR) method with two examples: an idealised scenario simulating an SIR-type epidemic outbreak amongst N habitats distributed across a two-dimensional plane; the spread of infection between US cattle farms, illustrating that the FSR method makes continental-scale outbreak forecasting feasible with desktop processing power. The latter model demonstrates which areas of the US are at consistently high risk for cattle-infections, although predictions of epidemic size are highly dependent on assumptions about the tail of the transmission kernel. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic multiprotein assemblies shape the spatial structure of cell signaling.

Science.gov (United States)

Nussinov, Ruth; Jang, Hyunbum

2014-01-01

Cell signaling underlies critical cellular decisions. Coordination, efficiency as well as fail-safe mechanisms are key elements. How the cell ensures that these hallmarks are at play are important questions. Cell signaling is often viewed as taking place through discrete and cross-talking pathways; oftentimes these are modularized to emphasize distinct functions. While simple, convenient and clear, such models largely neglect the spatial structure of cell signaling; they also convey inter-modular (or inter-protein) spatial separation that may not exist. Here our thesis is that cell signaling is shaped by a network of multiprotein assemblies. While pre-organized, the assemblies and network are loose and dynamic. They contain transiently-associated multiprotein complexes which are often mediated by scaffolding proteins. They are also typically anchored in the membrane, and their continuum may span the cell. IQGAP1 scaffolding protein which binds proteins including Raf, calmodulin, Mek, Erk, actin, and tens more, with actin shaping B-cell (and likely other) membrane-anchored nanoclusters and allosterically polymerizing in dynamic cytoskeleton formation, and Raf anchoring in the membrane along with Ras, provides a striking example. The multivalent network of dynamic proteins and lipids, with specific interactions forming and breaking, can be viewed as endowing gel-like properties. Collectively, this reasons that efficient, productive and reliable cell signaling takes place primarily through transient, preorganized and cooperative protein-protein interactions spanning the cell rather than stochastic, diffusion-controlled processes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Conall H; Edmunds, W John

2015-06-19

Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

Unraveling the Transmission Ecology of Polio.

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez-Bakker, Micaela; King, Aaron A; Rohani, Pejman

2015-06-01

Sustained and coordinated vaccination efforts have brought polio eradication within reach. Anticipating the eradication of wild poliovirus (WPV) and the subsequent challenges in preventing its re-emergence, we look to the past to identify why polio rose to epidemic levels in the mid-20th century, and how WPV persisted over large geographic scales. We analyzed an extensive epidemiological dataset, spanning the 1930s to the 1950s and spatially replicated across each state in the United States, to glean insight into the drivers of polio's historical expansion and the ecological mode of its persistence prior to vaccine introduction. We document a latitudinal gradient in polio's seasonality. Additionally, we fitted and validated mechanistic transmission models to data from each US state independently. The fitted models revealed that: (1) polio persistence was the product of a dynamic mosaic of source and sink populations; (2) geographic heterogeneity of seasonal transmission conditions account for the latitudinal structure of polio epidemics; (3) contrary to the prevailing "disease of development" hypothesis, our analyses demonstrate that polio's historical expansion was straightforwardly explained by demographic trends rather than improvements in sanitation and hygiene; and (4) the absence of clinical disease is not a reliable indicator of polio transmission, because widespread polio transmission was likely in the multiyear absence of clinical disease. As the world edges closer to global polio eradication and continues the strategic withdrawal of the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV), the regular identification of, and rapid response to, these silent chains of transmission is of the utmost importance.

The traveling salesrat: insights into the dynamics of efficient spatial navigation in the rodent

Science.gov (United States)

Watkins de Jong, Laurel; Gereke, Brian; Martin, Gerard M.; Fellous, Jean-Marc

2011-10-01

Rodent spatial navigation requires the dynamic evaluation of multiple sources of information, including visual cues, self-motion signals and reward signals. The nature of the evaluation, its dynamics and the relative weighting of the multiple information streams are largely unknown and have generated many hypotheses in the field of robotics. We use the framework of the traveling salesperson problem (TSP) to study how this evaluation may be achieved. The TSP is a classical artificial intelligence NP-hard problem that requires an agent to visit a fixed set of locations once, minimizing the total distance traveled. We show that after a few trials, rats converge on a short route between rewarded food cups. We propose that this route emerges from a series of local decisions that are derived from weighing information embedded in the context of the task. We study the relative weighting of spatial and reward information and establish that, in the conditions of this experiment, when the contingencies are not in conflict, rats choose the spatial or reward optimal solution. There was a trend toward a preference for space when the contingencies were in conflict. We also show that the spatial decision about which cup to go to next is biased by the orientation of the animal. Reward contingencies are also shown to significantly and dynamically modulate the decision-making process. This paradigm will allow for further neurophysiological studies aimed at understanding the synergistic role of brain areas involved in planning, reward processing and spatial navigation. These insights will in turn suggest new neural-like architectures for the control of mobile autonomous robots.

Spatial dynamics of a nutrient-phytoplankton system with toxic effect on phytoplankton

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chakraborty, Subhendu; Tiwari, P. K.; Misra, A. K.

2015-01-01

The production of toxins by some species of phytoplankton is known to have several economic, ecological, and human health impacts. However, the role of toxins on the spatial distribution of phytoplankton is not well understood. In the present study, the spatial dynamics of a nutrient-phytoplankto...... patterns, like stripes, spots, and the mixture of them depending on the toxicity level. We also observe that the distribution of nutrient and phytoplankton shows spatiotemporal oscillation for certain toxicity level. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved....

Long-term spatial dynamics of Succisa pratensis in a changing rural landscape: linking dynamical modeling with historical maps

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Herben, Tomáš; Münzbergová, Zuzana; Mildén, M.; Ehrlén, J.; Cousins, S.A.O.; Eriksson, O.

2006-01-01

Roč. 94, - (2006), s. 131-143 ISSN 0022-0477 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD206/03/H137 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : spatial * dynamics * Succisa Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 4.239, year: 2006

Spatial and temporal dynamics of multidimensional well-being, livelihoods and ecosystem services in coastal Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Helen; Adger, W. Neil; Ahmad, Sate; Ahmed, Ali; Begum, Dilruba; Lázár, Attila N.; Matthews, Zoe; Rahman, Mohammed Mofizur; Streatfield, Peter Kim

2016-01-01

Populations in resource dependent economies gain well-being from the natural environment, in highly spatially and temporally variable patterns. To collect information on this, we designed and implemented a 1586-household quantitative survey in the southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh. Data were collected on material, subjective and health dimensions of well-being in the context of natural resource use, particularly agriculture, aquaculture, mangroves and fisheries. The questionnaire included questions on factors that mediate poverty outcomes: mobility and remittances; loans and micro-credit; environmental perceptions; shocks; and women’s empowerment. The data are stratified by social-ecological system to take into account spatial dynamics and the survey was repeated with the same respondents three times within a year to incorporate seasonal dynamics. The dataset includes blood pressure measurements and height and weight of men, women and children. In addition, the household listing includes basic data on livelihoods and income for approximately 10,000 households. The dataset facilitates interdisciplinary research on spatial and temporal dynamics of well-being in the context of natural resource dependence in low income countries. PMID:27824340

EEG source reconstruction reveals frontal-parietal dynamics of spatial conflict processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Michael X; Ridderinkhof, K Richard

2013-01-01

Cognitive control requires the suppression of distracting information in order to focus on task-relevant information. We applied EEG source reconstruction via time-frequency linear constrained minimum variance beamforming to help elucidate the neural mechanisms involved in spatial conflict processing. Human subjects performed a Simon task, in which conflict was induced by incongruence between spatial location and response hand. We found an early (∼200 ms post-stimulus) conflict modulation in stimulus-contralateral parietal gamma (30-50 Hz), followed by a later alpha-band (8-12 Hz) conflict modulation, suggesting an early detection of spatial conflict and inhibition of spatial location processing. Inter-regional connectivity analyses assessed via cross-frequency coupling of theta (4-8 Hz), alpha, and gamma power revealed conflict-induced shifts in cortical network interactions: Congruent trials (relative to incongruent trials) had stronger coupling between frontal theta and stimulus-contrahemifield parietal alpha/gamma power, whereas incongruent trials had increased theta coupling between medial frontal and lateral frontal regions. These findings shed new light into the large-scale network dynamics of spatial conflict processing, and how those networks are shaped by oscillatory interactions.

EEG source reconstruction reveals frontal-parietal dynamics of spatial conflict processing.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael X Cohen

Full Text Available Cognitive control requires the suppression of distracting information in order to focus on task-relevant information. We applied EEG source reconstruction via time-frequency linear constrained minimum variance beamforming to help elucidate the neural mechanisms involved in spatial conflict processing. Human subjects performed a Simon task, in which conflict was induced by incongruence between spatial location and response hand. We found an early (∼200 ms post-stimulus conflict modulation in stimulus-contralateral parietal gamma (30-50 Hz, followed by a later alpha-band (8-12 Hz conflict modulation, suggesting an early detection of spatial conflict and inhibition of spatial location processing. Inter-regional connectivity analyses assessed via cross-frequency coupling of theta (4-8 Hz, alpha, and gamma power revealed conflict-induced shifts in cortical network interactions: Congruent trials (relative to incongruent trials had stronger coupling between frontal theta and stimulus-contrahemifield parietal alpha/gamma power, whereas incongruent trials had increased theta coupling between medial frontal and lateral frontal regions. These findings shed new light into the large-scale network dynamics of spatial conflict processing, and how those networks are shaped by oscillatory interactions.

EEG Source Reconstruction Reveals Frontal-Parietal Dynamics of Spatial Conflict Processing

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Michael X; Ridderinkhof, K. Richard

2013-01-01

Cognitive control requires the suppression of distracting information in order to focus on task-relevant information. We applied EEG source reconstruction via time-frequency linear constrained minimum variance beamforming to help elucidate the neural mechanisms involved in spatial conflict processing. Human subjects performed a Simon task, in which conflict was induced by incongruence between spatial location and response hand. We found an early (∼200 ms post-stimulus) conflict modulation in stimulus-contralateral parietal gamma (30–50 Hz), followed by a later alpha-band (8–12 Hz) conflict modulation, suggesting an early detection of spatial conflict and inhibition of spatial location processing. Inter-regional connectivity analyses assessed via cross-frequency coupling of theta (4–8 Hz), alpha, and gamma power revealed conflict-induced shifts in cortical network interactions: Congruent trials (relative to incongruent trials) had stronger coupling between frontal theta and stimulus-contrahemifield parietal alpha/gamma power, whereas incongruent trials had increased theta coupling between medial frontal and lateral frontal regions. These findings shed new light into the large-scale network dynamics of spatial conflict processing, and how those networks are shaped by oscillatory interactions. PMID:23451201

Visuo-spatial processing in a dynamic and a static working memory paradigm in schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cocchi, Luca; Schenk, Françoise; Volken, Henri

2007-01-01

patients with schizophrenia and matched controls in a new working memory paradigm involving dynamic (the Ball Flight Task - BFT) or static (the Static Pattern Task - SPT) visual stimuli. In the BFT, the responses of the patients were apparently based on the retention of the last set of segments...... that visuo-spatial working memory can simply be dissociated into visual and spatial sub-components....

Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

2011-01-01

Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

Transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology of West Nile virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Blitvich, Bradley J

2008-06-01

West Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus that is maintained in a bird-mosquito transmission cycle. Humans, horses and other non-avian vertebrates are usually incidental hosts, but evidence is accumulating that this might not always be the case. Historically, WNV has been associated with asymptomatic infections and sporadic disease outbreaks in humans and horses in Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia. However, since 1994, the virus has caused frequent outbreaks of severe neuroinvasive disease in humans and horses in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. In 1999, WNV underwent a dramatic expansion of its geographic range, and was reported for the first time in the Western Hemisphere during an outbreak of human and equine encephalitis in New York City. The outbreak was accompanied by extensive and unprecedented avian mortality. Since then, WNV has dispersed across the Western Hemisphere and is now found throughout the USA, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean, and parts of Central and South America. WNV has been responsible for >27,000 human cases, >25,000 equine cases and hundreds of thousands of avian deaths in the USA but, surprisingly, there have been only sparse reports of WNV disease in vertebrates in the Caribbean and Latin America. This review summarizes our current understanding of WNV with particular emphasis on its transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology.

Pattern decomposition and quantitative-phase analysis in pulsed neutron transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steuwer, A.; Santisteban, J.R.; Withers, P.J.; Edwards, L.

2004-01-01

Neutron diffraction methods provide accurate quantitative insight into material properties with applications ranging from fundamental physics to applied engineering research. Neutron radiography or tomography on the other hand, are useful tools in the non-destructive spatial imaging of materials or engineering components, but are less accurate with respect to any quantitative analysis. It is possible to combine the advantages of diffraction and radiography using pulsed neutron transmission in a novel way. Using a pixellated detector at a time-of-flight source it is possible to collect 2D 'images' containing a great deal of interesting information in the thermal regime. This together with the unprecedented intensities available at spallation sources and improvements in computing power allow for a re-assessment of the transmission methods. It opens the possibility of simultaneous imaging of diverse material properties such as strain or temperature, as well as the variation in attenuation, and can assist in the determination of phase volume fraction. Spatial and time resolution (for dynamic experiment) are limited only by the detector technology and the intensity of the source. In this example, phase information contained in the cross-section is extracted from Bragg edges using an approach similar to pattern decomposition

Dynamics and spatial distribution of beta-lactamase expression in Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bagge, N.; Hentzer, Morten; Andersen, Jens Bo

2004-01-01

of increased imipenem concentrations. Ceftazidime induced the monitor system of the biofilm bacteria as well, but only bacteria in the peripheries of the microcolonies were induced in the presence of even very high concentrations. The experiments illustrate for the first time the dynamic and spatial...

Control of Spin Wave Dynamics in Spatially Twisted Magnetic Structures

Science.gov (United States)

2017-06-27

control the spin wave dynamics of magnetic structures twisted spatially, we prepared the exchange-coupled films with the hard magnetic L10-FePt and...information writing of magnetic storage and spintronic applications. Introduction and Objective: Recent rapid progress in the research field of nano...scaled bilayer elements is also an important aim of this project. Approach/Method: The exchange-coupled films with the hard magnetic L10-FePt and

The spatial heterogeneity between Japanese encephalitis incidence distribution and environmental variables in Nepal.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel E Impoinvil

Full Text Available To identify potential environmental drivers of Japanese Encephalitis virus (JE transmission in Nepal, we conducted an ecological study to determine the spatial association between 2005 Nepal JE incidence, and climate, agricultural, and land-cover variables at district level.District-level data on JE cases were examined using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA analysis to identify spatial clusters from 2004 to 2008 and 2005 data was used to fit a spatial lag regression model with climate, agriculture and land-cover variables.Prior to 2006, there was a single large cluster of JE cases located in the Far-West and Mid-West terai regions of Nepal. After 2005, the distribution of JE cases in Nepal shifted with clusters found in the central hill areas. JE incidence during the 2005 epidemic had a stronger association with May mean monthly temperature and April mean monthly total precipitation compared to mean annual temperature and precipitation. A parsimonious spatial lag regression model revealed, 1 a significant negative relationship between JE incidence and April precipitation, 2 a significant positive relationship between JE incidence and percentage of irrigated land 3 a non-significant negative relationship between JE incidence and percentage of grassland cover, and 4 a unimodal non-significant relationship between JE Incidence and pig-to-human ratio.JE cases clustered in the terai prior to 2006 where it seemed to shift to the Kathmandu region in subsequent years. The spatial pattern of JE cases during the 2005 epidemic in Nepal was significantly associated with low precipitation and the percentage of irrigated land. Despite the availability of an effective vaccine, it is still important to understand environmental drivers of JEV transmission since the enzootic cycle of JEV transmission is not likely to be totally interrupted. Understanding the spatial dynamics of JE risk factors may be useful in providing important information to the

Dynamics of spatial traveler's dilemma games

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanimoto, Jun

2014-01-01

By examining payoff structures, we elucidate the traveler's dilemma (TD) game. It can be said that the TD game as the 2-player and multi-strategy game is a variant of the donor and recipient game, which itself is a subclass of the 2-player and 2-strategy (2 × 2) prisoner's dilemma, in the sense that the Nash equilibrium and fair Pareto optimum appear on mutual defection and mutual cooperation, respectively. Exploring spatial TD games, we observed that the network reciprocity of TD games can be universally scaled with a single dilemma parameter as can be performed in usual 2 × 2 games. Furthermore, we observed a local peak event reflecting a resurging cooperation fraction with increasing dilemma strength after degradation to a low level. We successfully demonstrate that this is caused by the specific dynamics of TD games created by their specific payoff structure. (paper)

A spatial picture of the synthetic large-scale motion from dynamic roughness

Science.gov (United States)

Huynh, David; McKeon, Beverley

2017-11-01

Jacobi and McKeon (2011) set up a dynamic roughness apparatus to excite a synthetic, travelling wave-like disturbance in a wind tunnel, boundary layer study. In the present work, this dynamic roughness has been adapted for a flat-plate, turbulent boundary layer experiment in a water tunnel. A key advantage of operating in water as opposed to air is the longer flow timescales. This makes accessible higher non-dimensional actuation frequencies and correspondingly shorter synthetic length scales, and is thus more amenable to particle image velocimetry. As a result, this experiment provides a novel spatial picture of the synthetic mode, the coupled small scales, and their streamwise development. It is demonstrated that varying the roughness actuation frequency allows for significant tuning of the streamwise wavelength of the synthetic mode, with a range of 3 δ-13 δ being achieved. Employing a phase-locked decomposition, spatial snapshots are constructed of the synthetic large scale and used to analyze its streamwise behavior. Direct spatial filtering is used to separate the synthetic large scale and the related small scales, and the results are compared to those obtained by temporal filtering that invokes Taylor's hypothesis. The support of AFOSR (Grant # FA9550-16-1-0361) is gratefully acknowledged.

Attainment of 40.5 pm spatial resolution using 300 kV scanning transmission electron microscope equipped with fifth-order aberration corrector.

Science.gov (United States)

Morishita, Shigeyuki; Ishikawa, Ryo; Kohno, Yuji; Sawada, Hidetaka; Shibata, Naoya; Ikuhara, Yuichi

2018-02-01

The achievement of a fine electron probe for high-resolution imaging in scanning transmission electron microscopy requires technological developments, especially in electron optics. For this purpose, we developed a microscope with a fifth-order aberration corrector that operates at 300 kV. The contrast flat region in an experimental Ronchigram, which indicates the aberration-free angle, was expanded to 70 mrad. By using a probe with convergence angle of 40 mrad in the scanning transmission electron microscope at 300 kV, we attained the spatial resolution of 40.5 pm, which is the projected interatomic distance between Ga-Ga atomic columns of GaN observed along [212] direction.

Dynamics of annular bright field imaging in scanning transmission electron microscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Findlay, S.D.; Shibata, N.; Sawada, H.; Okunishi, E.; Kondo, Y.; Ikuhara, Y.

2010-01-01

We explore the dynamics of image formation in the so-called annular bright field mode in scanning transmission electron microscopy, whereby an annular detector is used with detector collection range lying within the cone of illumination, i.e. the bright field region. We show that this imaging mode allows us to reliably image both light and heavy columns over a range of thickness and defocus values, and we explain the contrast mechanisms involved. The role of probe and detector aperture sizes is considered, as is the sensitivity of the method to intercolumn spacing and local disorder.

Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1pdm infection in England

Science.gov (United States)

Birrell, Paul J.; Zhang, Xu-Sheng; Pebody, Richard G.; Gay, Nigel J.; de Angelis, Daniela

2016-07-01

Understanding how the geographic distribution of and movements within a population influence the spatial spread of infections is crucial for the design of interventions to curb transmission. Existing knowledge is typically based on results from simulation studies whereas analyses of real data remain sparse. The main difficulty in quantifying the spatial pattern of disease spread is the paucity of available data together with the challenge of incorporating optimally the limited information into models of disease transmission. To address this challenge the role of routine migration on the spatial pattern of infection during the epidemic of 2009 pandemic influenza in England is investigated here through two modelling approaches: parallel-region models, where epidemics in different regions are assumed to occur in isolation with shared characteristics; and meta-region models where inter-region transmission is expressed as a function of the commuter flux between regions. Results highlight that the significantly less computationally demanding parallel-region approach is sufficiently flexible to capture the underlying dynamics. This suggests that inter-region movement is either inaccurately characterized by the available commuting data or insignificant once its initial impact on transmission has subsided.

Propagation dynamics for a spatially periodic integrodifference competition model

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Ruiwen; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study the propagation dynamics for a class of integrodifference competition models in a periodic habitat. An interesting feature of such a system is that multiple spreading speeds can be observed, which biologically means different species may have different spreading speeds. We show that the model system admits a single spreading speed, and it coincides with the minimal wave speed of the spatially periodic traveling waves. A set of sufficient conditions for linear determinacy of the spreading speed is also given.

New developments in transmission electron microscopy for nanotechnology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Z.L.

2003-01-01

High-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) is one of the most powerful tools used for characterizing nanomaterials, and it is indispensable for nanotechnology. This paper reviews some of the most recent developments in electron microscopy techniques for characterizing nanomaterials. The review covers the following areas: in-situ microscopy for studying dynamic shape transformation of nanocrystals; in-situ nanoscale property measurements on the mechanical, electrical and field emission properties of nanotubes/nanowires; environmental microscopy for direct observation of surface reactions; aberration-free angstrom-resolution imaging of light elements (such as oxygen and lithium); high-angle annular-dark-field scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM); imaging of atom clusters with atomic resolution chemical information; electron holography of magnetic materials; and high-spatial resolution electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS) for nanoscale electronic and chemical analysis. It is demonstrated that the picometer-scale science provided by HRTEM is the foundation of nanometer-scale technology. (Abstract Copyright [2003], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

The role of remote sensing and GIS for spatial prediction of vector-borne diseases transmission: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Palaniyandi, M

2012-12-01

There have been several attempts made to the appreciation of remote sensing and GIS for the study of vectors, biodiversity, vector presence, vector abundance and the vector-borne diseases with respect to space and time. This study was made for reviewing and appraising the potential use of remote sensing and GIS applications for spatial prediction of vector-borne diseases transmission. The nature of the presence and the abundance of vectors and vector-borne diseases, disease infection and the disease transmission are not ubiquitous and are confined with geographical, environmental and climatic factors, and are localized. The presence of vectors and vector-borne diseases is most complex in nature, however, it is confined and fueled by the geographical, climatic and environmental factors including man-made factors. The usefulness of the present day availability of the information derived from the satellite data including vegetation indices of canopy cover and its density, soil types, soil moisture, soil texture, soil depth, etc. is integrating the information in the expert GIS engine for the spatial analysis of other geoclimatic and geoenvironmental variables. The present study gives the detailed information on the classical studies of the past and present, and the future role of remote sensing and GIS for the vector-borne diseases control. The ecological modeling directly gives us the relevant information to understand the spatial variation of the vector biodiversity, vector presence, vector abundance and the vector-borne diseases in association with geoclimatic and the environmental variables. The probability map of the geographical distribution and seasonal variations of horizontal and vertical distribution of vector abundance and its association with vector -borne diseases can be obtained with low cost remote sensing and GIS tool with reliable data and speed.

Time-specific ecological niche modeling predicts spatial dynamics of vector insects and human dengue cases.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, A Townsend; Martínez-Campos, Carmen; Nakazawa, Yoshinori; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

2005-09-01

Numerous human diseases-malaria, dengue, yellow fever and leishmaniasis, to name a few-are transmitted by insect vectors with brief life cycles and biting activity that varies in both space and time. Although the general geographic distributions of these epidemiologically important species are known, the spatiotemporal variation in their emergence and activity remains poorly understood. We used ecological niche modeling via a genetic algorithm to produce time-specific predictive models of monthly distributions of Aedes aegypti in Mexico in 1995. Significant predictions of monthly mosquito activity and distributions indicate that predicting spatiotemporal dynamics of disease vector species is feasible; significant coincidence with human cases of dengue indicate that these dynamics probably translate directly into transmission of dengue virus to humans. This approach provides new potential for optimizing use of resources for disease prevention and remediation via automated forecasting of disease transmission risk.

Finite energy wave signals of extremal amplitude in the spatial NLS-dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.; Andonowati, A.

2006-01-01

With the aim to find extremal properties of extreme waves, we consider waves of maximal crest (and wave) height in the model of the spatial NLS-dynamics. Using the two motion invariants momentum and Hamiltonian as constraints, we show that so-called cornered solitons provide the maximal crest

Modeling social transmission dynamics of unhealthy behaviors for evaluating prevention and treatment interventions on childhood obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Frerichs, Leah M; Araz, Ozgur M; Huang, Terry T-K

2013-01-01

Research evidence indicates that obesity has spread through social networks, but lever points for interventions based on overlapping networks are not well studied. The objective of our research was to construct and parameterize a system dynamics model of the social transmission of behaviors through adult and youth influence in order to explore hypotheses and identify plausible lever points for future childhood obesity intervention research. Our objectives were: (1) to assess the sensitivity of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence to peer and adult social transmission rates, and (2) to test the effect of combinations of prevention and treatment interventions on the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity. To address the first objective, we conducted two-way sensitivity analyses of adult-to-child and child-to-child social transmission in relation to childhood overweight and obesity prevalence. For the second objective, alternative combinations of prevention and treatment interventions were tested by varying model parameters of social transmission and weight loss behavior rates. Our results indicated child overweight and obesity prevalence might be slightly more sensitive to the same relative change in the adult-to-child compared to the child-to-child social transmission rate. In our simulations, alternatives with treatment alone, compared to prevention alone, reduced the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity more after 10 years (1.2-1.8% and 0.2-1.0% greater reduction when targeted at children and adults respectively). Also, as the impact of adult interventions on children was increased, the rank of six alternatives that included adults became better (i.e., resulting in lower 10 year childhood overweight and obesity prevalence) than alternatives that only involved children. The findings imply that social transmission dynamics should be considered when designing both prevention and treatment intervention approaches. Finally, targeting adults may

Modeling social transmission dynamics of unhealthy behaviors for evaluating prevention and treatment interventions on childhood obesity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leah M Frerichs

Full Text Available Research evidence indicates that obesity has spread through social networks, but lever points for interventions based on overlapping networks are not well studied. The objective of our research was to construct and parameterize a system dynamics model of the social transmission of behaviors through adult and youth influence in order to explore hypotheses and identify plausible lever points for future childhood obesity intervention research. Our objectives were: (1 to assess the sensitivity of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence to peer and adult social transmission rates, and (2 to test the effect of combinations of prevention and treatment interventions on the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity. To address the first objective, we conducted two-way sensitivity analyses of adult-to-child and child-to-child social transmission in relation to childhood overweight and obesity prevalence. For the second objective, alternative combinations of prevention and treatment interventions were tested by varying model parameters of social transmission and weight loss behavior rates. Our results indicated child overweight and obesity prevalence might be slightly more sensitive to the same relative change in the adult-to-child compared to the child-to-child social transmission rate. In our simulations, alternatives with treatment alone, compared to prevention alone, reduced the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity more after 10 years (1.2-1.8% and 0.2-1.0% greater reduction when targeted at children and adults respectively. Also, as the impact of adult interventions on children was increased, the rank of six alternatives that included adults became better (i.e., resulting in lower 10 year childhood overweight and obesity prevalence than alternatives that only involved children. The findings imply that social transmission dynamics should be considered when designing both prevention and treatment intervention approaches. Finally

Spatial-temporal trend for mother-to-child transmission of HIV up to infancy and during pre-Option B+ in western Kenya, 2007-13.

Science.gov (United States)

Waruru, Anthony; Achia, Thomas N O; Muttai, Hellen; Ng'ang'a, Lucy; Zielinski-Gutierrez, Emily; Ochanda, Boniface; Katana, Abraham; Young, Peter W; Tobias, James L; Juma, Peter; De Cock, Kevin M; Tylleskär, Thorkild

2018-01-01

Using spatial-temporal analyses to understand coverage and trends in elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (e-MTCT) efforts may be helpful in ensuring timely services are delivered to the right place. We present spatial-temporal analysis of seven years of HIV early infant diagnosis (EID) data collected from 12 districts in western Kenya from January 2007 to November 2013, during pre-Option B+ use. We included in the analysis infants up to one year old. We performed trend analysis using extended Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel stratified test and logistic regression models to examine trends and associations of infant HIV status at first diagnosis with: early diagnosis (ever having breastfed, use of single dose nevirapine, and maternal antiretroviral therapy status. We examined these covariates and fitted spatial and spatial-temporal semiparametric Poisson regression models to explain HIV-infection rates using R-integrated nested Laplace approximation package. We calculated new infections per 100,000 live births and used Quantum GIS to map fitted MTCT estimates for each district in Nyanza region. Median age was two months, interquartile range 1.5-5.8 months. Unadjusted pooled positive rate was 11.8% in the seven-years period and declined from 19.7% in 2007 to 7.0% in 2013, p best in explaining geographical variation in MTCT. Improved EID uptake and reduced MTCT rates are indicators of progress towards e-MTCT. Cojoined analysis of time and covariates in a spatial context provides a robust approach for explaining differences in programmatic impact over time. During this pre-Option B+ period, the prevention of mother to child transmission program in this region has not achieved e-MTCT target of ≤50 infections per 100,000 live births. Geographical disparities in program achievements may signify gaps in spatial distribution of e-MTCT efforts and could indicate areas needing further resources and interventions.

Dynamics of a split torque helicopter transmission

Science.gov (United States)

Krantz, Timothy L.

1994-06-01

Split torque designs, proposed as alternatives to traditional planetary designs for helicopter main rotor transmissions, can save weight and be more reliable than traditional designs. This report presents the results of an analytical study of the system dynamics and performance of a split torque gearbox that uses a balance beam mechanism for load sharing. The Lagrange method was applied to develop a system of equations of motion. The mathematical model includes time-varying gear mesh stiffness, friction, and manufacturing errors. Cornell's method for calculating the stiffness of spur gear teeth was extended and applied to helical gears. The phenomenon of sidebands spaced at shaft frequencies about gear mesh fundamental frequencies was simulated by modeling total composite gear errors as sinusoid functions. Although the gearbox has symmetric geometry, the loads and motions of the two power paths differ. Friction must be considered to properly evaluate the balance beam mechanism. For the design studied, the balance beam is not an effective device for load sharing unless the coefficient of friction is less than 0.003. The complete system stiffness as represented by the stiffness matrix used in this analysis must be considered to precisely determine the optimal tooth indexing position.

A Data Transmission Algorithm Based on Dynamic Grid Division for Coal Goaf Temperature Monitoring

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Qingsong Hu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available WSN (wireless sensor network is a perfect tool of temperature monitoring in coal goaf. Based on the three-zone theory of goaf, the GtmWSN model is proposed, and its dynamic features are analyzed. Accordingly, a data transmission scheme, named DTDGD, is worked out. Firstly, sink nodes conduct dynamic grid division on the GtmWSN according to virtual semicircle. Secondly, each node will confirm to which grid it belongs based on grid number. Finally, data will be delivered to sink nodes with greedy forward and hole avoidance. Simulation results and field data showed that the GtmWSN and DTDGD satisfied the lifetime need of goaf temperature monitoring.

Does interspecific competition have a moderating effect on Taenia solium transmission dynamics in Southeast Asia?

Science.gov (United States)

Conlan, James V; Vongxay, Khamphouth; Fenwick, Stanley; Blacksell, Stuart D; Thompson, R C Andrew

2009-09-01

It is well understood that sociocultural practices strongly influence Taenia solium transmission; however, the extent to which interspecific parasite competition moderates Taenia transmission has yet to be determined. This is certainly the case in Southeast Asia where T. solium faces competition in both the definitive host (people) and the intermediate host (pigs). In people, adult worms of T. solium, T. saginata and T. asiatica compete through density-dependent crowding mechanisms. In pigs, metacestodes of T. solium, T. hydatigena and T. asiatica compete through density-dependent immune-mediated interactions. Here, we describe the biological and epidemiological implications of Taenia competition and propose that interspecific competition has a moderating effect on the transmission dynamics of T. solium in the region. Furthermore, we argue that this competitive ecological scenario should be considered in future research and surveillance activities examining T. solium cysticercosis and taeniasis in Southeast Asia.

Transmission dynamics and prospects for the elimination of canine rabies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katie Hampson

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Rabies has been eliminated from domestic dog populations in Western Europe and North America, but continues to kill many thousands of people throughout Africa and Asia every year. A quantitative understanding of transmission dynamics in domestic dog populations provides critical information to assess whether global elimination of canine rabies is possible. We report extensive observations of individual rabid animals in Tanzania and generate a uniquely detailed analysis of transmission biology, which explains important epidemiological features, including the level of variation in epidemic trajectories. We found that the basic reproductive number for rabies, R0, is very low in our study area in rural Africa (approximately 1.2 and throughout its historic global range (<2. This finding provides strong support for the feasibility of controlling endemic canine rabies by vaccination, even near wildlife areas with large wild carnivore populations. However, we show that rapid turnover of domestic dog populations has been a major obstacle to successful control in developing countries, thus regular pulse vaccinations will be required to maintain population-level immunity between campaigns. Nonetheless our analyses suggest that with sustained, international commitment, global elimination of rabies from domestic dog populations, the most dangerous vector to humans, is a realistic goal.

High speed direct imaging of thin metal film ablation by movie-mode dynamic transmission electron microscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Hihath, Sahar; Santala, Melissa K.; Cen, Xi; Campbell, Geoffrey; van Benthem, Klaus

2016-03-01

Obliteration of matter by pulsed laser beams is not only prevalent in science fiction movies, but finds numerous technological applications ranging from additive manufacturing over machining of micro- and nanostructured features to health care. Pulse lengths ranging from femtoseconds to nanoseconds are utilized at varying laser beam energies and pulse lengths, and enable the removal of nanometric volumes of material. While the mechanisms for removal of material by laser irradiation, i.e., laser ablation, are well understood on the micrometer length scale, it was previously impossible to directly observe obliteration processes on smaller scales due to experimental limitations for the combination of nanometer spatial and nanosecond temporal resolution. Here, we report the direct observation of metal thin film ablation from a solid substrate through dynamic transmission electron microscopy. Quantitative analysis reveals liquid-phase dewetting of the thin-film, followed by hydrodynamic sputtering of nano- to submicron sized metal droplets. We discovered unexpected fracturing of the substrate due to evolving thermal stresses. This study confirms that hydrodynamic sputtering remains a valid mechanism for droplet expulsion on the nanoscale, while irradiation induced stress fields represent limit laser processing of nanostructured materials. Our results allow for improved safety during laser ablation in manufacturing and medical applications.

Performance Analysis of Control Signal Transmission Technique for Cognitive Radios in Dynamic Spectrum Access Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Sakata, Ren; Tomioka, Tazuko; Kobayashi, Takahiro

When cognitive radio (CR) systems dynamically use the frequency band, a control signal is necessary to indicate which carrier frequencies are currently available in the network. In order to keep efficient spectrum utilization, this control signal also should be transmitted based on the channel conditions. If transmitters dynamically select carrier frequencies, receivers have to receive control signals without knowledge of their carrier frequencies. To enable such transmission and reception, this paper proposes a novel scheme called DCPT (Differential Code Parallel Transmission). With DCPT, receivers can receive low-rate information with no knowledge of the carrier frequencies. The transmitter transmits two signals whose carrier frequencies are spaced by a predefined value. The absolute values of the carrier frequencies can be varied. When the receiver acquires the DCPT signal, it multiplies the signal by a frequency-shifted version of the signal; this yields a DC component that represents the data signal which is then demodulated. The performance was evaluated by means of numerical analysis and computer simulation. We confirmed that DCPT operates successfully even under severe interference if its parameters are appropriately configured.

Pod systems: an equivariant ordinary differential equation approach to dynamical systems on a spatial domain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elmhirst, Toby; Stewart, Ian; Doebeli, Michael

2008-01-01

We present a class of systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which we call 'pod systems', that offers a new perspective on dynamical systems defined on a spatial domain. Such systems are typically studied as partial differential equations, but pod systems bring the analytic techniques of ODE theory to bear on the problems, and are thus able to study behaviours and bifurcations that are not easily accessible to the standard methods. In particular, pod systems are specifically designed to study spatial dynamical systems that exhibit multi-modal solutions. A pod system is essentially a linear combination of parametrized functions in which the coefficients and parameters are variables whose dynamics are specified by a system of ODEs. That is, pod systems are concerned with the dynamics of functions of the form Ψ(s, t) = y 1 (t) φ(s; x 1 (t)) + ··· + y N (t) φ(s; x N (t)), where s in R n is the spatial variable and φ: R n × R d → R. The parameters x i in R d and coefficients y i in R are dynamic variables which evolve according to some system of ODEs, x-dot i = G i (x, y) and y-dot i = H i (x, y), for i = 1, ..., N. The dynamics of Ψ in function space can then be studied through the dynamics of the x and y in finite dimensions. A vital feature of pod systems is that the ODEs that specify the dynamics of the x and y variables are not arbitrary; restrictions on G i and H i are required to guarantee that the dynamics of Ψ in function space are well defined (that is, that trajectories are unique). One important restriction is symmetry in the ODEs which arises because Ψ is invariant under permutations of the indices of the (x i , y i ) pairs. However, this is not the whole story, and the primary goal of this paper is to determine the necessary structure of the ODEs explicitly to guarantee that the dynamics of Ψ are well defined

Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model for a vector-borne disease with direct transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai Liming; Li Xuezhi; Li Zhaoqiang

2013-01-01

An epidemic model of a vector-borne disease with direct transmission is investigated. The reproduction number (R 0 ) of the model is obtained. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model reveals the presence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity) in the standard incidence model. The phenomenon shows that the classical epidemiological requirement of having the reproduction number less than unity is no longer sufficient, although necessary, for effectively controlling the spread of some vector-borne diseases in a community. The backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the standard incidence with a bilinear mass action incidence. By using Lyapunov function theory and LaSalle invariance principle, it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium for the model with a mass action incidence is globally stable if the reproduction number R mass is greater than one in feasible region. This suggests that the use of standard incidence in modelling some vector-borne diseases with direct transmission results in the presence of backward bifurcation. Numerical simulations analyze the effect of the direct transmission and the disease-induced death rate on dynamics of the disease transmission, and also verify our analyzed results.

Bent dark soliton dynamics in two spatial dimensions beyond the mean field approximation

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Mistakidis, Simeon; Katsimiga, Garyfallia; Koutentakis, Georgios; Kevrekidis, Panagiotis; Schmelcher, Peter; Theory Group of Fundamental Processes in Quantum Physics Team

2017-04-01

The dynamics of a bented dark soliton embedded in two spatial dimensions beyond the mean-field approximation is explored. We examine the case of a single bented dark soliton comparing the mean-field approximation to a correlated approach that involves multiple orbitals. Fragmentation is generally present and significantly affects the dynamics, especially in the case of stronger interparticle interactions and in that of lower atom numbers. It is shown that the presence of fragmentation allows for the appearance of solitonic and vortex structures in the higher-orbital dynamics. In particular, a variety of excitations including dark solitons in multiple orbitals and vortex-antidark complexes is observed to arise spontaneously within the beyond mean-field dynamics. Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) in the framework of the SFB 925 ``Light induced dynamics and control of correlated quantum systems''.

Real-time 2.5  Gbit/s spatial circuit switching on W-band wireless links

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rodríguez, Sebastián; Morales Vicente, Alvaro; Gallardo, Omar

2017-01-01

A spatial circuit switching system based on a beam steering application for W-band wireless links is proposed and experimentally demonstrated. The system enables two simultaneous transmissions of a 2.5 Gbit∕s data signal over a carrier of 81 GHz, while allowing the receiver to dynamically switch...... between them. The performance of the system is tested with the real-time measurements of the BER, achieving values below the FEC limit for 7% of overhead and serving to prove the viability of wireless spatial circuit switching in the next generation of wireless access networks....

Matrix of transmission in structural dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mukherjee, S.

1975-01-01

The problem of close-coupled systems and cantilever type buildings can be treated efficiently by means of the very general and versatile method of transmission matrix. The expression 'matrix of transmission' is used to point out the fact that the method to be described differs fundamentally from another method related to matrix calculus, and also successfully used in vibration problem. In this method, forces and displacements are introduced as the 'unknowns' of the problem. The 'matrix of transmission' relates these quantities at one point of the structure to those at the neighbouring point. The natural frequencies of a freely vibrating elastic system can be found by applying proper end conditions. The end conditions will yield the frequency determinate to zero. By using suitable numerical method, the natural frequencies and mode shapes are determined, by making a frequency sweep within the range of interest. Results of analysis of a typical nuclear building by this method show very close agreement with the results obtained by using ASKA and SAP IV Program

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

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Justin V. Remais

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF 3.2.1 baseline/current (2001–2004 and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059 climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

Science.gov (United States)

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2013-09-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Crosson, William; Quattrochi, Dale; Luvall, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground-based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010-2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

Dynamic sex roles among men who have sex with men and transmissions from primary HIV infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Alam, Shah Jamal; Romero-Severson, Ethan; Kim, Jong-Hoon; Emond, Gilbert; Koopman, James S

2010-09-01

Previous studies estimating the fraction of transmissions from persons with primary HIV have not focused on the effects of switching sex role in male homosexual populations. Such behavioral fluctuations can increase the contribution of primary HIV in the overall population. We modeled HIV transmission with 8 compartments defined by 4 behavioral groups, with different anal-insertive and anal-receptive combinations, and 2 stages of infection. We explored the effects of fluctuating behavioral categories on endemic prevalence and the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV. We varied transition rates to develop the theory on how behavioral fluctuation affects infection patterns, and we used the transition rates in a Netherlands cohort to assess overall effects in a real setting. The dynamics of change in behavior-group status over time observed in the Netherlands cohort amplifies the prevalence of infection and the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV, resulting in the highest proportions of transmissions being from people with primary HIV. Fluctuation between dual- or receptive-role periods and no-anal-sex periods mainly determines this amplification. In terms of the total transmissions, the dual-role risk group is dominant. Fluctuation between insertive and receptive roles decreases the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV, but such fluctuation is infrequently observed. The fraction of transmissions from primary HIV is considerably raised by fluctuations in insertive and receptive anal sex behaviors. This increase occurs even when primary HIV or later infection status does not influence risk behavior. Thus, it is not simply biology but also behavior patterns and social contexts that determine the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV. Moreover, each primary HIV transmission has a larger population effect than each later infection transmission because the men to whom one transmits from primary HIV carry on more chains of transmissions than the men

Bifurcation and spatial pattern formation in spreading of disease with incubation period in a phytoplankton dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Randhir Singh Baghel

2012-02-01

Full Text Available In this article, we propose a three dimensional mathematical model of phytoplankton dynamics with the help of reaction-diffusion equations that studies the bifurcation and pattern formation mechanism. We provide an analytical explanation for understanding phytoplankton dynamics with three population classes: susceptible, incubated, and infected. This model has a Holling type II response function for the population transformation from susceptible to incubated class in an aquatic ecosystem. Our main goal is to provide a qualitative analysis of Hopf bifurcation mechanisms, taking death rate of infected phytoplankton as bifurcation parameter, and to study further spatial patterns formation due to spatial diffusion. Here analytical findings are supported by the results of numerical experiments. It is observed that the coexistence of all classes of population depends on the rate of diffusion. Also we obtained the time evaluation pattern formation of the spatial system.

Displaying R spatial statistics on Google dynamic maps with web applications created by Rwui

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background The R project includes a large variety of packages designed for spatial statistics. Google dynamic maps provide web based access to global maps and satellite imagery. We describe a method for displaying directly the spatial output from an R script on to a Google dynamic map. Methods This is achieved by creating a Java based web application which runs the R script and then displays the results on the dynamic map. In order to make this method easy to implement by those unfamiliar with programming Java based web applications, we have added the method to the options available in the R Web User Interface (Rwui) application. Rwui is an established web application for creating web applications for running R scripts. A feature of Rwui is that all the code for the web application being created is generated automatically so that someone with no knowledge of web programming can make a fully functional web application for running an R script in a matter of minutes. Results Rwui can now be used to create web applications that will display the results from an R script on a Google dynamic map. Results may be displayed as discrete markers and/or as continuous overlays. In addition, users of the web application may select regions of interest on the dynamic map with mouse clicks and the coordinates of the region of interest will automatically be made available for use by the R script. Conclusions This method of displaying R output on dynamic maps is designed to be of use in a number of areas. Firstly it allows statisticians, working in R and developing methods in spatial statistics, to easily visualise the results of applying their methods to real world data. Secondly, it allows researchers who are using R to study health geographics data, to display their results directly onto dynamic maps. Thirdly, by creating a web application for running an R script, a statistician can enable users entirely unfamiliar with R to run R coded statistical analyses of health geographics

Exploring dynamical complexity in diffusion driven predator-prey systems: Effect of toxin producing phytoplankton and spatial heterogeneities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Kumari, Nitu; Rai, Vikas

2009-01-01

In this paper, dynamical complexities in two reaction-diffusion (RD) model systems are explored. A spatial heterogeneity in the form of linear spatial gradient in the reproductive growth rate of the phytoplankton is incorporated in both the model systems. Extra mortality of the zooplankton due to toxin production by the phytoplankton is included in the second reaction diffusion model system. Effect of toxin production and spatial heterogeneity in the model systems are studied. Toxin production does not seem to have an appreciable effect on the asymptotic dynamics of the model systems. On the other hand, spatial heterogeneity does influence the dynamics. In particular, it increases the frequency of occurrence of chaos as evident from two dimensional parameter scans. Both these model systems display short term recurrent chaos [Rai V. Chaos in natural populations: edge or wedge? Ecol Complex 2004;1: 127-38] as they reside on 'edges of chaos' (EOC) [Rai V, Upadhyay RK. Evolving to the edge of chaos: chance or necessity? Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2006;30:1074-87]. This suggests that the ecological systems have a tendency to evolve to EOC. The study corroborates the inferences drawn from an earlier study by Rai and Upadhyay [Rai V, Upadhyay RK. Evolving to the edge of chaos: chance or necessity? Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2006;30:1074-87]. The system's dynamics is largely unpredictable and admits bursts of short-term predictability.

Epidemic and Endemic Malaria Transmission Related to Fish Farming Ponds in the Amazon Frontier.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Izabel Cristina Dos Reis

Full Text Available Fish farming in the Amazon has been stimulated as a solution to increase economic development. However, poorly managed fish ponds have been sometimes associated with the presence of Anopheles spp. and consequently, with malaria transmission. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of malaria in the state of Acre (and more closely within a single county to investigate the potential links between aquaculture and malaria transmission in this region. At the state level, we classified the 22 counties into three malaria endemicity patterns, based on the correlation between notification time series. Furthermore, the study period (2003-2013 was divided into two phases (epidemic and post-epidemic. Higher fish pond construction coincided both spatially and temporally with increased rate of malaria notification. Within one malaria endemic county, we investigated the relationship between the geolocation of malaria cases (2011-2012 and their distance to fish ponds. Entomological surveys carried out in these ponds provided measurements of anopheline abundance that were significantly associated with the abundance of malaria cases within 100 m of the ponds (P < 0.005; r = 0.39. These results taken together suggest that fish farming contributes to the maintenance of high transmission levels of malaria in this region.

Spatial dynamics of Fabiana imbricata shrublands in northwestern Patagonia in relation to natural fires

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Ghermandi

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Fire is a critical disturbance in the structuring and functioning of most Mediterranean ecosystems. In northwestern Patagonia, vegetation patterns are strongly influenced by fire and environmental heterogeneity. Dendroecology, together with satellite imagery and GIS, have been demonstrated to be useful tools in studies that relate to fire effects with patches, patterns and species dynamics at landscape scale. Such studies can be approached from landscape ecology, which has evolved in the last years supported by the development of remote sensing and GIS technologies. This study evaluates the spatial dynamic of F. imbricata in response to fire using remote sensing, GIS and dendrochronology techniques, at landscape scale. Two sites were evaluated and one of them was affected by fire in the year 1999. The digital processing images (using the NBR spectral index and the dendroecological analysis verified this. A fire, occurring in 1978, was also detected by the analysis of F. imbricata growth rings. The relation between F. imbricata shrubland dynamics and spatial configuration with fire, land topography and hydrography was established in the study area.

An investigation of the structural dynamic behaviour of a vehicle transmission by means of multibody simulation; Untersuchung des strukturdynamischen und akustischen Verhaltens eines Fahrzeuggetriebes mit MKS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gross, Volker [ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Friedrichshafen (Germany)

2011-07-01

The legal regulations and the customers' requirements as regards vehicle comfort are growing more and more stringent. This also includes the transmission systems, as they are expected not so show any obvious acoustic or dynamic weaknesses. Modern simulation methods permit evaluation and optimization of structure-borne and airborne noise in the early stage of development. Especially the FE method is a well-established technique for the simulation of structure-borne sound. With regard to complex transmissions, multibody simulations (MBS) can provide valuable insights for a realistic evaluation of the dynamic behaviour of a transmission. This is demonstrated using a truck transmission as an example. (orig.)

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics in Air Pollution Exposure Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Dias, Daniela; Tchepel, Oxana

2018-01-01

Analyzing individual exposure in urban areas offers several challenges where both the individual’s activities and air pollution levels demonstrate a large degree of spatial and temporal dynamics. This review article discusses the concepts, key elements, current developments in assessing personal exposure to urban air pollution (seventy-two studies reviewed) and respective advantages and disadvantages. A new conceptual structure to organize personal exposure assessment methods is proposed according to two classification criteria: (i) spatial-temporal variations of individuals’ activities (point-fixed or trajectory based) and (ii) characterization of air quality (variable or uniform). This review suggests that the spatial and temporal variability of urban air pollution levels in combination with indoor exposures and individual’s time-activity patterns are key elements of personal exposure assessment. In the literature review, the majority of revised studies (44 studies) indicate that the trajectory based with variable air quality approach provides a promising framework for tackling the important question of inter- and intra-variability of individual exposure. However, future quantitative comparison between the different approaches should be performed, and the selection of the most appropriate approach for exposure quantification should take into account the purpose of the health study. This review provides a structured basis for the intercomparing of different methodologies and to make their advantages and limitations more transparent in addressing specific research objectives. PMID:29558426

Dynamic and Geological-Ecological Spatial Planning Approach in Hot Mud Volcano Affected Area in Porong-Sidoarjo

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Haryo Sulistyarso

2010-08-01

Full Text Available By May 29t h 2006 with an average hot mud volcano volume of 100,000 m3 /per day, disasters on well kick (i.e. Lapindo Brantas Ltd. in Banjar Panji 1 drilling well have deviated the Spatial Planning of Sidoarjo’s Regency for 2003- 2013. Regional Development Concept that is aimed at developing triangle growth pole model on SIBORIAN (SIdoarjo-JaBOn-KRIaAN could not be implemented. This planning cannot be applied due to environmental imbalance to sub district of Porong that was damaged by hot mud volcano. In order to anticipate deviations of the Regional and Spatial Planning of Sidoarjo Regency for 2003-2013, a review on regional planning and dynamic implementation as well as Spatial Planning Concept based on geologicalecological condition are required, especially the regions affected by well kick disaster. The spatial analysis is based on the geological and ecological condition by using an overlay technique using several maps of hot mud volcano affected areas. In this case, dynamic implementation is formulated to the responsiblity plan that can happen at any time because of uncertain ending of the hot mud volcano eruption disaster in Porong. The hot mud volcano affected areas in the Sidoarjo’s Spatial Planning 2009-2029 have been decided as a geologic protected zone. The result of this research is scenarios of spatial planning for the affected area (short term, medium term and long term spatial planning scenarios.

Dynamic spatial coding within the dorsal frontoparietal network during a visual search task.

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Wieland H Sommer

Full Text Available To what extent are the left and right visual hemifields spatially coded in the dorsal frontoparietal attention network? In many experiments with neglect patients, the left hemisphere shows a contralateral hemifield preference, whereas the right hemisphere represents both hemifields. This pattern of spatial coding is often used to explain the right-hemispheric dominance of lesions causing hemispatial neglect. However, pathophysiological mechanisms of hemispatial neglect are controversial because recent experiments on healthy subjects produced conflicting results regarding the spatial coding of visual hemifields. We used an fMRI paradigm that allowed us to distinguish two attentional subprocesses during a visual search task. Either within the left or right hemifield subjects first attended to stationary locations (spatial orienting and then shifted their attentional focus to search for a target line. Dynamic changes in spatial coding of the left and right hemifields were observed within subregions of the dorsal front-parietal network: During stationary spatial orienting, we found the well-known spatial pattern described above, with a bilateral hemifield representation in the right hemisphere and a contralateral preference in the left hemisphere. However, during search, the right hemisphere had a contralateral preference and the left hemisphere equally represented both hemifields. This finding leads to novel perspectives regarding models of visuospatial attention and hemispatial neglect.

Transmission dynamics of the recently-identified BYD virus causing duck egg-drop syndrome.

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Naveen K Vaidya

Full Text Available Baiyangdian (BYD virus is a recently-identified mosquito-borne flavivirus that causes severe disease in ducks, with extremely rapid transmission, up to 15% mortality within 10 days and 90% reduction in egg production on duck farms within 5 days of infection. Because of the zoonotic nature of flaviviruses, the characterization of BYD virus and its epidemiology are important public health concerns. Here, we develop a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of this novel virus. We validate the model against BYD outbreak data collected from duck farms in Southeast China, as well as experimental data obtained from an animal facility. Based on our model, the basic reproductive number of BYD virus is high (R(0 = 21 indicating that this virus is highly transmissible, consistent with the dramatic epidemiology observed in BYDV-affected duck farms. Our results indicate that younger ducks are more vulnerable to BYD disease and that ducks infected with BYD virus reduce egg production (to about 33% on average for about 3 days post-infection; after 3 days infected ducks are no longer able to produce eggs. Using our model, we predict that control measures which reduce contact between mosquitoes and ducks such as mosquito nets are more effective than insecticides.

Study on the dynamics responses of a transmission system made from carbon nanotubes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yin, Hang; Cai, Kun, E-mail: kuicansj@163.com; Wei, Ning [College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A and F University, Yangling 712100 (China); Qin, Qing-Hua [Research School of Engineering, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601 (Australia); Shi, Jiao [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211-2200 (United States)

2015-06-21

A rotational transmission system from coaxial carbon nanotubes (CNTs) is investigated using a computational molecular dynamics approach. The system consists of a motor from a single-walled carbon nanotube and a bearing from a double-walled carbon nanotube. The motor has a high fixed rotational frequency and the two ends of the outer tube in the bearing are fixed. The inner tube in the bearing works as a rotor. Because of the interlayer friction in the bearing, configurations of the joint between the adjacent ends of motor and rotor have significant effects on rotational transmission properties. Four factors are considered in simulation, i.e., the bonding types of atoms (sp{sup 1} and sp{sup 2}) on the ends of motor and rotor, the difference between motor and rotor radii, the rotational speed of motor, and the environmental temperature. It is found that the synchronous transmission happens if the sp{sup 1} atoms on the jointed ends of motor and rotor are bonded each other and become new sp{sup 2} atoms. Therefore, the lower difference between radii of motor and rotor, higher temperature of environment leads to synchronous rotational transmission easily. If the environmental temperature is too low (e.g., <150 K), the end of motor adjacent to rotor is easily under buckling and new sp{sup 2} atoms appear, too. With capped CNTs or higher radii difference between rotor and motor at an appropriate temperature, a stable asynchronous rotation of rotor can be generated, and the rotor's frequency varying linearly with motor's frequency between 230 and 270 GHz. A multi-signal transmission device combined with oscillating and rotational motion is proposed for motor and stator shares a same size in radius.

Study on the dynamics responses of a transmission system made from carbon nanotubes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yin, Hang; Cai, Kun; Wei, Ning; Qin, Qing-Hua; Shi, Jiao

2015-01-01

A rotational transmission system from coaxial carbon nanotubes (CNTs) is investigated using a computational molecular dynamics approach. The system consists of a motor from a single-walled carbon nanotube and a bearing from a double-walled carbon nanotube. The motor has a high fixed rotational frequency and the two ends of the outer tube in the bearing are fixed. The inner tube in the bearing works as a rotor. Because of the interlayer friction in the bearing, configurations of the joint between the adjacent ends of motor and rotor have significant effects on rotational transmission properties. Four factors are considered in simulation, i.e., the bonding types of atoms (sp 1 and sp 2 ) on the ends of motor and rotor, the difference between motor and rotor radii, the rotational speed of motor, and the environmental temperature. It is found that the synchronous transmission happens if the sp 1 atoms on the jointed ends of motor and rotor are bonded each other and become new sp 2 atoms. Therefore, the lower difference between radii of motor and rotor, higher temperature of environment leads to synchronous rotational transmission easily. If the environmental temperature is too low (e.g., <150 K), the end of motor adjacent to rotor is easily under buckling and new sp 2 atoms appear, too. With capped CNTs or higher radii difference between rotor and motor at an appropriate temperature, a stable asynchronous rotation of rotor can be generated, and the rotor's frequency varying linearly with motor's frequency between 230 and 270 GHz. A multi-signal transmission device combined with oscillating and rotational motion is proposed for motor and stator shares a same size in radius

Noninvasive investigation of exocrine pancreatic function: Feasibility of cine dynamic MRCP with a spatially selective inversion-recovery pulse.

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Yasokawa, Kazuya; Ito, Katsuyoshi; Tamada, Tsutomu; Yamamoto, Akira; Hayashida, Minoru; Tanimoto, Daigo; Higaki, Atsushi; Noda, Yasufumi; Kido, Ayumu

2015-11-01

To investigate the feasibility of noncontrast-enhanced cine dynamic magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) with a spatially selective inversion-recovery (IR) pulse for evaluating exocrine pancreatic function in comparison with the N-benzoyl-L-tyrosyl-p-aminobenzoic acid (BT-PABA) test as a pancreatic exocrine function test. Twenty subjects with or without chronic pancreatitis were included. MRCP with a spatially selective IR pulse was repeated every 15 seconds for 5 minutes to acquire a total of 20 images (cine-dynamic MRCP). The median and mean frequency of the observation (the number of times) and the moving distance (mean secretion grading scores) of pancreatic juice inflow on cine-dynamic MRCP were compared with a BT-PABA test. The urinary PABA excretion rate (%) had significant positive correlations with both the mean secretion grade (r = 0.66, P = 0.002) and frequency of secretory inflow (r = 0.62, P = 0.004) in cine dynamic MRCP. Both the mean frequency of observations of pancreatic secretory inflow (1.4 ± 1.6 times vs. 14.3 ± 4.2 times, P Cine dynamic MRCP with a spatially selective IR pulse may have potential for estimating the pancreatic exocrine function noninvasively as a substitute for the BT-PABA test. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Characterizing measles transmission in India: a dynamic modeling study using verbal autopsy data.

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Verguet, Stéphane; Jones, Edward O; Johri, Mira; Morris, Shaun K; Suraweera, Wilson; Gauvreau, Cindy L; Jha, Prabhat; Jit, Mark

2017-08-10

Decreasing trends in measles mortality have been reported in recent years. However, such estimates of measles mortality have depended heavily on assumed regional measles case fatality risks (CFRs) and made little use of mortality data from low- and middle-income countries in general and India, the country with the highest measles burden globally, in particular. We constructed a dynamic model of measles transmission in India with parameters that were empirically inferred using spectral analysis from a time series of measles mortality extracted from the Million Death Study, an ongoing longitudinal study recording deaths across 2.4 million Indian households and attributing causes of death using verbal autopsy. The model was then used to estimate the measles CFR, the number of measles deaths, and the impact of vaccination in 2000-2015 among under-five children in India and in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (UP), two states with large populations and the highest numbers of measles deaths in India. We obtained the following estimated CFRs among under-five children for the year 2005: 0.63% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40-1.00%) for India as a whole, 0.62% (0.38-1.00%) for Bihar, and 1.19% (0.80-1.75%) for UP. During 2000-2015, we estimated that 607,000 (95% CI: 383,000-958,000) under-five deaths attributed to measles occurred in India as a whole. If no routine vaccination or supplemental immunization activities had occurred from 2000 to 2015, an additional 1.6 (1.0-2.6) million deaths for under-five children would have occurred across India. We developed a data- and model-driven estimation of the historical measles dynamics, CFR, and vaccination impact in India, extracting the periodicity of epidemics using spectral and coherence analysis, which allowed us to infer key parameters driving measles transmission dynamics and mortality.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Spatial Determinants of Urban Growth in Suzhou, China

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Ling Zhang

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban growth and models its spatial determinants in China through a case study of Suzhou, a rapidly industrializing and globalizing city. We conducted spatial analysis on land use data derived from multi-temporal remote sensing images of Suzhou from 1986 to 2008. Three urban growth types, namely infilling, edge-expansion, and leapfrog, were identified. We used landscape metrics to quantify the temporal trend of urban growth in Suzhou. During these 22 years, Suzhou’s urbanization changed from bottom-up rural urbanization to city-based top-down urban expansion. The underlying mechanism changed from TVE (town village enterprise driven rural industrialization to FDI (foreign direct investment driven development zone fever. Furthermore, we employed both global and local logistic regressions to model the probability of urban land conversion against a set of spatial variables. The global logistic regression model found the significance of proximity, neighborhood conditions, and socioeconomic factors. The logistic geographically weighted regression (GWR model improved the global regression model with better model goodness-of-fit and higher prediction accuracy. More importantly, the local parameter estimates of variables enabled us to exam spatial variations of the influences of variables on urban growth in Suzhou.

Malaria transmission dynamics at a site in northern Ghana proposed for testing malaria vaccines.

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Appawu, Maxwell; Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Dadzie, Samuel; Asoala, Victor; Anto, Francis; Koram, Kwadwo; Rogers, William; Nkrumah, Francis; Hoffman, Stephen L; Fryauff, David J

2004-01-01

We studied the malaria transmission dynamics in Kassena Nankana district (KND), a site in northern Ghana proposed for testing malaria vaccines. Intensive mosquito sampling for 1 year using human landing catches in three micro-ecological sites (irrigated, lowland and rocky highland) yielded 18 228 mosquitoes. Anopheles gambiae s.l. and Anopheles funestus constituted 94.3% of the total collection with 76.8% captured from the irrigated communities. Other species collected but in relatively few numbers were Anopheles pharoensis (5.4%) and Anopheles rufipes (0.3%). Molecular analysis of 728 An. gambiae.s.l. identified Anopheles gambiae s.s. as the most dominant sibling species (97.7%) of the An. gambiae complex from the three ecological sites. Biting rates of the vectors (36.7 bites per man per night) were significantly higher (P<0.05) in the irrigated area than in the non-irrigated lowland (5.2) and rocky highlands (5.9). Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite rates of 7.2% (295/4075) and 7.1% (269/3773) were estimated for An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus, respectively. Transmission was highly seasonal, and the heaviest transmission occurred from June to October. The intensity of transmission was higher for people in the irrigated communities than the non-irrigated ones. An overall annual entomological inoculation rate (EIR) of 418 infective bites was estimated in KND. There were micro-ecological variations in the EIRs, with values of 228 infective bites in the rocky highlands, 360 in the lowlands and 630 in the irrigated area. Approximately 60% of malaria transmission in KND occurred indoors during the second half of the night, peaking at daybreak between 04.00 and 06.00 hours. Vaccine trials could be conducted in this district, with timing dependent on the seasonal patterns and intensity of transmission taking into consideration the micro-geographical differences and vaccine trial objectives.

Reliability and Minimum Detectable Change of Temporal-Spatial, Kinematic, and Dynamic Stability Measures during Perturbed Gait.

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Christopher A Rábago

Full Text Available Temporal-spatial, kinematic variability, and dynamic stability measures collected during perturbation-based assessment paradigms are often used to identify dysfunction associated with gait instability. However, it remains unclear which measures are most reliable for detecting and tracking responses to perturbations. This study systematically determined the between-session reliability and minimum detectable change values of temporal-spatial, kinematic variability, and dynamic stability measures during three types of perturbed gait. Twenty young healthy adults completed two identical testing sessions two weeks apart, comprised of an unperturbed and three perturbed (cognitive, physical, and visual walking conditions in a virtual reality environment. Within each session, perturbation responses were compared to unperturbed walking using paired t-tests. Between-session reliability and minimum detectable change values were also calculated for each measure and condition. All temporal-spatial, kinematic variability and dynamic stability measures demonstrated fair to excellent between-session reliability. Minimal detectable change values, normalized to mean values ranged from 1-50%. Step width mean and variability measures demonstrated the greatest response to perturbations with excellent between-session reliability and low minimum detectable change values. Orbital stability measures demonstrated specificity to perturbation direction and sensitivity with excellent between-session reliability and low minimum detectable change values. We observed substantially greater between-session reliability and lower minimum detectable change values for local stability measures than previously described which may be the result of averaging across trials within a session and using velocity versus acceleration data for reconstruction of state spaces. Across all perturbation types, temporal-spatial, orbital and local measures were the most reliable measures with the

Random forest variable selection in spatial malaria transmission modelling in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa

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Thandi Kapwata

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Malaria is an environmentally driven disease. In order to quantify the spatial variability of malaria transmission, it is imperative to understand the interactions between environmental variables and malaria epidemiology at a micro-geographic level using a novel statistical approach. The random forest (RF statistical learning method, a relatively new variable-importance ranking method, measures the variable importance of potentially influential parameters through the percent increase of the mean squared error. As this value increases, so does the relative importance of the associated variable. The principal aim of this study was to create predictive malaria maps generated using the selected variables based on the RF algorithm in the Ehlanzeni District of Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. From the seven environmental variables used [temperature, lag temperature, rainfall, lag rainfall, humidity, altitude, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI], altitude was identified as the most influential predictor variable due its high selection frequency. It was selected as the top predictor for 4 out of 12 months of the year, followed by NDVI, temperature and lag rainfall, which were each selected twice. The combination of climatic variables that produced the highest prediction accuracy was altitude, NDVI, and temperature. This suggests that these three variables have high predictive capabilities in relation to malaria transmission. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the predictive maps generated from predictions made by the RF algorithm could be used to monitor the progression of malaria and assist in intervention and prevention efforts with respect to malaria.

Dynamic nuclear polarization and optimal control spatial-selective 13C MRI and MRS

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vinding, Mads Sloth; Laustsen, Christoffer; Maximov, Ivan I.

2013-01-01

. This is achieved through the development of spatial-selective single-shot spiral-readout MRI and MRS experiments combined with dynamic nuclear polarization hyperpolarized [1-13C]pyruvate on a 4.7T pre-clinical MR scanner. The method stands out from related techniques by facilitating anatomic shaped region...

Spatial and temporal dynamics of the genetic organization of small mammal populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, M.H.; Manlove, M.N.; Joule, J.

1978-01-01

A functional population is a group of organisms and their offspring that contributes to a common gene pool within a certain area and time period. It is also the unit of evolution and should be viewed both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Selection, drift, dispersal, and mutation can alter the composition of populations. Spatial heterogeneity in allele frequencies argues for a conceptual model that has a series of relatively small populations semi-isolated from one another. Because of the relatively high levels of genetic variability characteristic of most mammalian species, significant amounts of gene flow between these spatially subdivided populations must occur when longer time periods are considered. Fluctuations in the genetic structure of populations seem to be important in altering the fitness of the individuals within the populations. The interaction of populations through gene flow is important in changing the levels of intrapopulational genetic variability. Populations can be characterized as existing on a continuum from relatively stable to unstable numbers and by other associated changes in their characteristics. Temporal changes in allele frequency occur in a variety of mammals. Conceptually, a species can be viewed as a series of dynamic populations that vary in numbers and quality in both a spatial and temporal context even over short distances and time periods. Short term changes in the quality of individuals in a population can be important in altering the short term dynamics of a population

Using Spatial Reinforcement Learning to Build Forest Wildfire Dynamics Models From Satellite Images

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Sriram Ganapathi Subramanian

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Machine learning algorithms have increased tremendously in power in recent years but have yet to be fully utilized in many ecology and sustainable resource management domains such as wildlife reserve design, forest fire management, and invasive species spread. One thing these domains have in common is that they contain dynamics that can be characterized as a spatially spreading process (SSP, which requires many parameters to be set precisely to model the dynamics, spread rates, and directional biases of the elements which are spreading. We present related work in artificial intelligence and machine learning for SSP sustainability domains including forest wildfire prediction. We then introduce a novel approach for learning in SSP domains using reinforcement learning (RL where fire is the agent at any cell in the landscape and the set of actions the fire can take from a location at any point in time includes spreading north, south, east, or west or not spreading. This approach inverts the usual RL setup since the dynamics of the corresponding Markov Decision Process (MDP is a known function for immediate wildfire spread. Meanwhile, we learn an agent policy for a predictive model of the dynamics of a complex spatial process. Rewards are provided for correctly classifying which cells are on fire or not compared with satellite and other related data. We examine the behavior of five RL algorithms on this problem: value iteration, policy iteration, Q-learning, Monte Carlo Tree Search, and Asynchronous Advantage Actor-Critic (A3C. We compare to a Gaussian process-based supervised learning approach and also discuss the relation of our approach to manually constructed, state-of-the-art methods from forest wildfire modeling. We validate our approach with satellite image data of two massive wildfire events in Northern Alberta, Canada; the Fort McMurray fire of 2016 and the Richardson fire of 2011. The results show that we can learn predictive, agent

Integration of temporal and spatial properties of dynamic connectivity networks for automatic diagnosis of brain disease.

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Jie, Biao; Liu, Mingxia; Shen, Dinggang

2018-07-01

Functional connectivity networks (FCNs) using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) have been applied to the analysis and diagnosis of brain disease, such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) and its prodrome, i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Different from conventional studies focusing on static descriptions on functional connectivity (FC) between brain regions in rs-fMRI, recent studies have resorted to dynamic connectivity networks (DCNs) to characterize the dynamic changes of FC, since dynamic changes of FC may indicate changes in macroscopic neural activity patterns in cognitive and behavioral aspects. However, most of the existing studies only investigate the temporal properties of DCNs (e.g., temporal variability of FC between specific brain regions), ignoring the important spatial properties of the network (e.g., spatial variability of FC associated with a specific brain region). Also, emerging evidence on FCNs has suggested that, besides temporal variability, there is significant spatial variability of activity foci over time. Hence, integrating both temporal and spatial properties of DCNs can intuitively promote the performance of connectivity-network-based learning methods. In this paper, we first define a new measure to characterize the spatial variability of DCNs, and then propose a novel learning framework to integrate both temporal and spatial variabilities of DCNs for automatic brain disease diagnosis. Specifically, we first construct DCNs from the rs-fMRI time series at successive non-overlapping time windows. Then, we characterize the spatial variability of a specific brain region by computing the correlation of functional sequences (i.e., the changing profile of FC between a pair of brain regions within all time windows) associated with this region. Furthermore, we extract both temporal variabilities and spatial variabilities from DCNs as features, and integrate them for classification by using manifold regularized multi

Environmental Transmission of Typhoid Fever in an Urban Slum.

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Akullian, Adam; Ng'eno, Eric; Matheson, Alastair I; Cosmas, Leonard; Macharia, Daniel; Fields, Barry; Bigogo, Godfrey; Mugoh, Maina; John-Stewart, Grace; Walson, Judd L; Wakefield, Jonathan; Montgomery, Joel M

2015-12-01

Enteric fever due to Salmonella Typhi (typhoid fever) occurs in urban areas with poor sanitation. While direct fecal-oral transmission is thought to be the predominant mode of transmission, recent evidence suggests that indirect environmental transmission may also contribute to disease spread. Data from a population-based infectious disease surveillance system (28,000 individuals followed biweekly) were used to map the spatial pattern of typhoid fever in Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi Kenya, between 2010-2011. Spatial modeling was used to test whether variations in topography and accumulation of surface water explain the geographic patterns of risk. Among children less than ten years of age, risk of typhoid fever was geographically heterogeneous across the study area (p = 0.016) and was positively associated with lower elevation, OR = 1.87, 95% CI (1.36-2.57), p typhoid fever did not vary geographically or with elevation among individuals more than ten years of age [corrected]. Our results provide evidence of indirect, environmental transmission of typhoid fever among children, a group with high exposure to fecal pathogens in the environment. Spatially targeting sanitation interventions may decrease enteric fever transmission.

Collaborative Image Coding and Transmission over Wireless Sensor Networks

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Min Wu

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The imaging sensors are able to provide intuitive visual information for quick recognition and decision. However, imaging sensors usually generate vast amount of data. Therefore, processing and coding of image data collected in a sensor network for the purpose of energy efficient transmission poses a significant technical challenge. In particular, multiple sensors may be collecting similar visual information simultaneously. We propose in this paper a novel collaborative image coding and transmission scheme to minimize the energy for data transmission. First, we apply a shape matching method to coarsely register images to find out maximal overlap to exploit the spatial correlation between images acquired from neighboring sensors. For a given image sequence, we transmit background image only once. A lightweight and efficient background subtraction method is employed to detect targets. Only the regions of target and their spatial locations are transmitted to the monitoring center. The whole image can then be reconstructed by fusing the background and the target images as well as their spatial locations. Experimental results show that the energy for image transmission can indeed be greatly reduced with collaborative image coding and transmission.

Environmental Transmission of Typhoid Fever in an Urban Slum.

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Adam Akullian

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Enteric fever due to Salmonella Typhi (typhoid fever occurs in urban areas with poor sanitation. While direct fecal-oral transmission is thought to be the predominant mode of transmission, recent evidence suggests that indirect environmental transmission may also contribute to disease spread.Data from a population-based infectious disease surveillance system (28,000 individuals followed biweekly were used to map the spatial pattern of typhoid fever in Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi Kenya, between 2010-2011. Spatial modeling was used to test whether variations in topography and accumulation of surface water explain the geographic patterns of risk.Among children less than ten years of age, risk of typhoid fever was geographically heterogeneous across the study area (p = 0.016 and was positively associated with lower elevation, OR = 1.87, 95% CI (1.36-2.57, p <0.001. In contrast, the risk of typhoid fever did not vary geographically or with elevation among individuals more than ten years of age [corrected].Our results provide evidence of indirect, environmental transmission of typhoid fever among children, a group with high exposure to fecal pathogens in the environment. Spatially targeting sanitation interventions may decrease enteric fever transmission.

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

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Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Bendrey, Robin

2017-02-01

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella . Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis , the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

Molecular dynamics of tert-butanol studied by neutron transmission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amaral, L.Q.; Fulfaro, R.; Vinhas, L.A.

1974-01-01

Neutron transmission of the globular compound tert-butanol (CH 3 ) 3 COH have been measured in the temperature interval O 0 C to 40 0 C for 6.13 A neutrons and in the neutron wavelength range 4A to 7.5A in the liquid and solid states. Results show that the cross-section difference at the state transition in 24 0 C is 13%, while it is only approximately 1% at the first order phase transition in 14 0 C. Evidence of existence of third crystalline phase with the lowest cross-section has been found. The barrier to interval methyl rotation in the solid states is estimated as (3.=+ - 0.5) Kcal/mol and does change much over the phase and state transitions. The observed dynamical changes must be due to movements of the whole molecule and evidence that tert-butanol is not in the strict sense a plastic crystal. Correlation with heat capacity results is discussed

High-pass filtering and dynamic gain regulation enhance vertical bursts transmission along the mossy fiber pathway of cerebellum

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Jonathan Mapelli

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Signal elaboration in the cerebellum mossy fiber input pathway presents controversial aspects, especially concerning gain regulation and the spot-like (rather than beam-like appearance of granular-to-molecular layer transmission. By using voltage-sensitive dye (VSD imaging in rat cerebellar slices (Mapelli et al., 2010, we found that mossy fiber bursts optimally excited the granular layer above ~50 Hz and the overlaying molecular layer above ~100 Hz, thus generating a cascade of high-pass filters. NMDA receptors enhanced transmission in the granular, while GABA-A receptors depressed transmission in both the granular and molecular layer. Burst transmission gain was controlled through a dynamic frequency-dependent involvement of these receptors. Moreover, while high-frequency transmission was enhanced along vertical lines connecting the granular to molecular layer, no high-frequency enhancement was observed along the parallel fiber axis in the molecular layer. This was probably due to the stronger effect of Purkinje cell GABA-A receptor-mediated inhibition occurring along the parallel fibers than along the granule cell axon ascending branch. The consequent amplification of burst responses along vertical transmission lines could explain the spot-like activation of Purkinje cells observed following punctuate stimulation in vivo .

Analysis of dynamic meshing characteristic of planetary gear transmission in wind power increasing gearbox

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Wang Jungang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Dynamic behavior of planetary gear’s tooth contact surface in the different location can better conform operation condition comparing to the general gear pair. Nonlinear finite element algorithm was derived according to the basic control equation of contact dynamics. A finite element model of planetary gear transmission in wind power increasing gearbox was proposed considering different meshing locations based on nonlinear finite element solution. The characteristics of stress distribution at different meshing positions were analyzed. A simulation of the meshing process was conducted using finite element analysis. It was shown that node stresses of external meshing planetary gear varied significantly at different position. The analysis provides some useful insights into the performance of planetary gear’s tooth contact surface.

Linking spring phenology with mechanistic models of host movement to predict disease transmission risk

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Merkle, Jerod A.; Cross, Paul C.; Scurlock, Brandon M.; Cole, Eric K.; Courtemanch, Alyson B.; Dewey, Sarah R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2018-01-01

Disease models typically focus on temporal dynamics of infection, while often neglecting environmental processes that determine host movement. In many systems, however, temporal disease dynamics may be slow compared to the scale at which environmental conditions alter host space-use and accelerate disease transmission.Using a mechanistic movement modelling approach, we made space-use predictions of a mobile host (elk [Cervus Canadensis] carrying the bacterial disease brucellosis) under environmental conditions that change daily and annually (e.g., plant phenology, snow depth), and we used these predictions to infer how spring phenology influences the risk of brucellosis transmission from elk (through aborted foetuses) to livestock in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.Using data from 288 female elk monitored with GPS collars, we fit step selection functions (SSFs) during the spring abortion season and then implemented a master equation approach to translate SSFs into predictions of daily elk distribution for five plausible winter weather scenarios (from a heavy snow, to an extreme winter drought year). We predicted abortion events by combining elk distributions with empirical estimates of daily abortion rates, spatially varying elk seroprevelance and elk population counts.Our results reveal strong spatial variation in disease transmission risk at daily and annual scales that is strongly governed by variation in host movement in response to spring phenology. For example, in comparison with an average snow year, years with early snowmelt are predicted to have 64% of the abortions occurring on feedgrounds shift to occurring on mainly public lands, and to a lesser extent on private lands.Synthesis and applications. Linking mechanistic models of host movement with disease dynamics leads to a novel bridge between movement and disease ecology. Our analysis framework offers new avenues for predicting disease spread, while providing managers tools to proactively mitigate

LOADING OF MECHANICAL TRANSMISSION OF TROLLEYBUS TRACTION DRIVING GEAR

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A. I. Safonov

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The paper analyzes factors that determine dynamic loads of mechanical transmission of trolleybus traction driving gear. The paper proposes a methodology for determination of calculative moments of loading transmission elements. Results of the research are analyzed and recommendations on  dynamic reduction of trolleybus transmission are given in the paper. 

Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lassen Kaspersen, Line; Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes

This paper investigates price transmission for agricultural commodities between world markets and the Ugandan market in an attempt to determine the impact of world market prices on the Ugandan market. Based on the realization that price formation is not a static concept, a dynamic vector...... price relations, i.e. the price variations between geographically separated markets in Uganda and the world markets. Our analysis indicates that food markets in Uganda, based on our study of sorghum price transmission, are not integrated into world markets, and that oil prices are a very determining...... autoregressive (VAR) model is presented. The prices of Robusta coffee and sorghum are examined, as both of these crops are important for the domestic economy of Uganda – Robusta as a cash crop, mainly traded internationally, and sorghum for consumption at household level. The analysis focuses on the spatial...

Towards understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of seagrass landscapes using time-series remote sensing

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Lyons, Mitchell B.; Roelfsema, Chris M.; Phinn, Stuart R.

2013-03-01

The spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrasses have been well studied at the leaf to patch scales, however, the link to large spatial extent landscape and population dynamics is still unresolved in seagrass ecology. Traditional remote sensing approaches have lacked the temporal resolution and consistency to appropriately address this issue. This study uses two high temporal resolution time-series of thematic seagrass cover maps to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrass at both an inter- and intra-annual time scales, one of the first globally to do so at this scale. Previous work by the authors developed an object-based approach to map seagrass cover level distribution from a long term archive of Landsat TM and ETM+ images on the Eastern Banks (≈200 km2), Moreton Bay, Australia. In this work a range of trend and time-series analysis methods are demonstrated for a time-series of 23 annual maps from 1988 to 2010 and a time-series of 16 monthly maps during 2008-2010. Significant new insight was presented regarding the inter- and intra-annual dynamics of seagrass persistence over time, seagrass cover level variability, seagrass cover level trajectory, and change in area of seagrass and cover levels over time. Overall we found that there was no significant decline in total seagrass area on the Eastern Banks, but there was a significant decline in seagrass cover level condition. A case study of two smaller communities within the Eastern Banks that experienced a decline in both overall seagrass area and condition are examined in detail, highlighting possible differences in environmental and process drivers. We demonstrate how trend and time-series analysis enabled seagrass distribution to be appropriately assessed in context of its spatial and temporal history and provides the ability to not only quantify change, but also describe the type of change. We also demonstrate the potential use of time-series analysis products to investigate seagrass growth and

Dynamical patterns of calcium signaling in a functional model of neuron-astrocyte networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Postnov, D.E.; Koreshkov, R.N.; Brazhe, N.A.

2009-01-01

We propose a functional mathematical model for neuron-astrocyte networks. The model incorporates elements of the tripartite synapse and the spatial branching structure of coupled astrocytes. We consider glutamate-induced calcium signaling as a specific mode of excitability and transmission...... in astrocytic-neuronal networks. We reproduce local and global dynamical patterns observed experimentally....

NMR with generalized dynamics of spin and spatial coordinates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chang Jae.

1987-11-01

This work is concerned with theoretical and experimental aspects of the generalized dynamics of nuclear spin and spatial coordinates under magnetic-field pulses and mechanical motions. The main text begins with an introduction to the concept of ''fictitious'' interactions. A systematic method for constructing fictitious spin-1/2 operators is given. The interaction of spins with a quantized-field is described. The concept of the fictitious interactions under the irradiation of multiple pulses is utilized to design sequences for selectively averaging linear and bilinear operators. Relations between the low-field sequences and high-field iterative schemes are clarified. These relations and the transformation properties of the spin operators are exploited to develop schemes for heteronuclear decoupling of multi-level systems. The resulting schemes are evaluated for heteronuclear decoupling of a dilute spin-1/2 from a spin-1 in liquid crystal samples and from a homonuclear spin-1/2 pair in liquids. A relation between the spin and the spatial variables is discussed. The transformation properties of the spin operators are applied to spatial coordinates and utilized to develop methods for removing the orientational dependence responsible for line broadening in a powder sample. Elimination of the second order quadrupole effects, as well as the first order anisotropies is discussed. It is shown that various sources of line broadening can effectively be eliminated by spinning and/or hopping the sample about judiciously chosen axes along with appropriate radio-frequency pulse sequences

A multi-scale spatial model of hepatitis-B viral dynamics.

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Quentin Cangelosi

Full Text Available Chronic hepatitis B viral infection (HBV afflicts around 250 million individuals globally and few options for treatment exist. Once infected, the virus entrenches itself in the liver with a notoriously resilient colonisation of viral DNA (covalently-closed circular DNA, cccDNA. The majority of infections are cleared, yet we do not understand why 5% of adult immune responses fail leading to the chronic state with its collateral morbid effects such as cirrhosis and eventual hepatic carcinoma. The liver environment exhibits particularly complex spatial structures for metabolic processing and corresponding distributions of nutrients and transporters that may influence successful HBV entrenchment. We assembled a multi-scaled mathematical model of the fundamental hepatic processing unit, the sinusoid, into a whole-liver representation to investigate the impact of this intrinsic spatial heterogeneity on the HBV dynamic. Our results suggest HBV may be exploiting spatial aspects of the liver environment. We distributed increased HBV replication rates coincident with elevated levels of nutrients in the sinusoid entry point (the periportal region in tandem with similar distributions of hepatocyte transporters key to HBV invasion (e.g., the sodium-taurocholate cotransporting polypeptide or NTCP, or immune system activity. According to our results, such co-alignment of spatial distributions may contribute to persistence of HBV infections, depending on spatial distributions and intensity of immune response as well. Moreover, inspired by previous HBV models and experimentalist suggestions of extra-hepatic HBV replication, we tested in our model influence of HBV blood replication and observe an overall nominal effect on persistent liver infection. Regardless, we confirm prior results showing a solo cccDNA is sufficient to re-infect an entire liver, with corresponding concerns for transplantation and treatment.

Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

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Mauricio Santos-Vega

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria.Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors.Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a

Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

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Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Bouma, Menno J; Kohli, Vijay; Pascual, Mercedes

2016-12-01

The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria. Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors. Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more

Transmission Dynamics and Optimal Control of Malaria in Kenya

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Gabriel Otieno

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes and analyses a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of malaria with four-time dependent control measures in Kenya: insecticide treated bed nets (ITNs, treatment, indoor residual spray (IRS, and intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy (IPTp. We first considered constant control parameters and calculate the basic reproduction number and investigate existence and stability of equilibria as well as stability analysis. We proved that if R0≤1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable in D. If R0>1, the unique endemic equilibrium exists and is globally asymptotically stable. The model also exhibits backward bifurcation at R0=1. If R0>1, the model admits a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable in the interior of feasible region D. The sensitivity results showed that the most sensitive parameters are mosquito death rate and mosquito biting rates. We then consider the time-dependent control case and use Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to derive the necessary conditions for the optimal control of the disease using the proposed model. The existence of optimal control problem is proved. Numerical simulations of the optimal control problem using a set of reasonable parameter values suggest that the optimal control strategy for malaria control in endemic areas is the combined use of treatment and IRS; for epidemic prone areas is the use of treatment and IRS; for seasonal areas is the use of treatment; and for low risk areas is the use of ITNs and treatment. Control programs that follow these strategies can effectively reduce the spread of malaria disease in different malaria transmission settings in Kenya.

Monitoring hillslope moisture dynamics with surface ERT for enhancing spatial significance of hydrometric point measurements

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Hübner, R.; Heller, K.; Günther, T.; Kleber, A.

2015-01-01

Besides floodplains, hillslopes are basic units that mainly control water movement and flow pathways within catchments of subdued mountain ranges. The structure of their shallow subsurface affects water balance, e.g. infiltration, retention, and runoff. Nevertheless, there is still a gap in the knowledge of the hydrological dynamics on hillslopes, notably due to the lack of generalization and transferability. This study presents a robust multi-method framework of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) in addition to hydrometric point measurements, transferring hydrometric data into higher spatial scales to obtain additional patterns of distribution and dynamics of soil moisture on a hillslope. A geoelectrical monitoring in a small catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains was carried out at weekly intervals from May to December 2008 to image seasonal moisture dynamics on the hillslope scale. To link water content and electrical resistivity, the parameters of Archie's law were determined using different core samples. To optimize inversion parameters and methods, the derived spatial and temporal water content distribution was compared to tensiometer data. The results from ERT measurements show a strong correlation with the hydrometric data. The response is congruent to the soil tension data. Water content calculated from the ERT profile shows similar variations as that of water content from soil moisture sensors. Consequently, soil moisture dynamics on the hillslope scale may be determined not only by expensive invasive punctual hydrometric measurements, but also by minimally invasive time-lapse ERT, provided that pedo-/petrophysical relationships are known. Since ERT integrates larger spatial scales, a combination with hydrometric point measurements improves the understanding of the ongoing hydrological processes and better suits identification of heterogeneities.

Spatial dynamics of overbank sedimentation in floodplain systems

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Pierce, Aaron R.; King, S.L.

2008-01-01

Floodplains provide valuable social and ecological functions, and understanding the rates and patterns of overbank sedimentation is critical for river basin management and rehabilitation. Channelization of alluvial systems throughout the world has altered hydrological and sedimentation processes within floodplain ecosystems. In the loess belt region of the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley of the United States, channelization, the geology of the region, and past land-use practices have resulted in the formation of dozens of valley plugs in stream channels and the formation of shoals at the confluence of stream systems. Valley plugs completely block stream channels with sediment and debris and can result in greater deposition rates on floodplain surfaces. Presently, however, information is lacking on the rates and variability of overbank sedimentation associated with valley plugs and shoals. We quantified deposition rates and textures in floodplains along channelized streams that contained valley plugs and shoals, in addition to floodplains occurring along an unchannelized stream, to improve our understanding of overbank sedimentation associated with channelized streams. Feldspar clay marker horizons and marker poles were used to measure floodplain deposition from 2002 to 2005 and data were analyzed with geospatial statistics to determine the spatial dynamics of sedimentation within the floodplains. Mean sediment deposition rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.67??cm/y at unchannelized sites, 0.16 to 2.27??cm/y at shoal sites, and 3.44 to 6.20??cm/y at valley plug sites. Valley plug sites had greater rates of deposition, and the deposited sediments contained more coarse sand material than either shoal or unchannelized sites. A total of 59 of 183 valley plug study plots had mean deposition rates > 5??cm/y. The geospatial analyses showed that the spatial dynamics of sedimentation can be influenced by the formation of valley plugs and shoals on channelized streams; however

Microfabricated physical spatial gradients for investigating cell migration and invasion dynamics.

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Michael Mak

Full Text Available We devise a novel assay that introduces micro-architectures into highly confining microchannels to probe the decision making processes of migrating cells. The conditions are meant to mimic the tight spaces in the physiological environment that cancer cells encounter during metastasis within the matrix dense stroma and during intravasation and extravasation through the vascular wall. In this study we use the assay to investigate the relative probabilities of a cell 1 permeating and 2 repolarizing (turning around when it migrates into a spatially confining region. We observe the existence of both states even within a single cell line, indicating phenotypic heterogeneity in cell migration invasiveness and persistence. We also show that varying the spatial gradient of the taper can induce behavioral changes in cells, and different cell types respond differently to spatial changes. Particularly, for bovine aortic endothelial cells (BAECs, higher spatial gradients induce more cells to permeate (60% than lower gradients (12%. Furthermore, highly metastatic breast cancer cells (MDA-MB-231 demonstrate a more invasive and permeative nature (87% than non-metastatic breast epithelial cells (MCF-10A (25%. We examine the migration dynamics of cells in the tapered region and derive characteristic constants that quantify this transition process. Our data indicate that cell response to physical spatial gradients is both cell-type specific and heterogeneous within a cell population, analogous to the behaviors reported to occur during tumor progression. Incorporation of micro-architectures in confined channels enables the probing of migration behaviors specific to defined geometries that mimic in vivo microenvironments.

Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox

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Brockmann Stefan O

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data. Main findings First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1 The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2 The highest frequency (61.8% of secondary transmissions occurs 3–5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3 The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions. Conclusion Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically.

A history of chagas disease transmission, control, and re-emergence in peri-rural La Joya, Peru.

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado, Stephen; Castillo Neyra, Ricardo; Quispe Machaca, Víctor R; Ancca Juárez, Jenny; Chou Chu, Lily; Verastegui, Manuela Renee; Moscoso Apaza, Giovanna M; Bocángel, César D; Tustin, Aaron W; Sterling, Charles R; Comrie, Andrew C; Náquira, César; Cornejo del Carpio, Juan G; Gilman, Robert H; Bern, Caryn; Levy, Michael Z

2011-02-22

The history of Chagas disease control in Peru and many other nations is marked by scattered and poorly documented vector control campaigns. The complexities of human migration and sporadic control campaigns complicate evaluation of the burden of Chagas disease and dynamics of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission. We conducted a cross-sectional serological and entomological study to evaluate temporal and spatial patterns of T. cruzi transmission in a peri-rural region of La Joya, Peru. We use a multivariate catalytic model and Bayesian methods to estimate incidence of infection over time and thereby elucidate the complex history of transmission in the area. Of 1,333 study participants, 101 (7.6%; 95% CI: 6.2-9.0%) were confirmed T. cruzi seropositive. Spatial clustering of parasitic infection was found in vector insects, but not in human cases. Expanded catalytic models suggest that transmission was interrupted in the study area in 1996 (95% credible interval: 1991-2000), with a resultant decline in the average annual incidence of infection from 0.9% (95% credible interval: 0.6-1.3%) to 0.1% (95% credible interval: 0.005-0.3%). Through a search of archival newspaper reports, we uncovered documentation of a 1995 vector control campaign, and thereby independently validated the model estimates. High levels of T. cruzi transmission had been ongoing in peri-rural La Joya prior to interruption of parasite transmission through a little-documented vector control campaign in 1995. Despite the efficacy of the 1995 control campaign, T. cruzi was rapidly reemerging in vector populations in La Joya, emphasizing the need for continuing surveillance and control at the rural-urban interface.

Comparison of transmission dynamics between Streptococcus uberis and Streptococcus agalactiae intramammary infections.

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Leelahapongsathon, Kansuda; Schukken, Ynte Hein; Pinyopummintr, Tanu; Suriyasathaporn, Witaya

2016-02-01

parameter and R0 values were not different between both pathogens; however, the duration of infection for Strep. agalactiae was longer than Strep. uberis. These suggest that Strep. uberis may have a different transmission dynamic compared with Strep. agalactiae. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Horizontal transmission dynamics of White spot syndrome virus by cohabitation trials in juvenile Penaeus monodon and P. vannamei

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ngo Xuan, T.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Vlak, J.M.; Jong, de M.C.M.

2014-01-01

White spot syndrome virus (WSSV), a rod-shaped double-stranded DNA virus, is an infectious agent causing fatal disease in shrimp farming around the globe. Within shrimp populations WSSV is transmitted very fast, however, the modes and dynamics of transmission of this virus are not well understood.

Analysis of main dynamic parameters of split power transmission

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A. Janulevičius

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The review carried out had shown one basic approach of split power transmission to the organization of drive which is applied to stepless transmissions of tractors and parallel hybrid cars. In the split power transmission the power split device uses a planetary gear. Tractor engine power in the split power transmission is transmitted to the drive shaft via a mechanical and hydraulic path. The theoretical analysis of main parameters of the split power transmission of the tractor is presented. The angular velocity of sun and coronary gears of the differential set is estimated by solution of the system of equations in which one equation is made for planetary differential gear, and another – for hydrostatic drive. The analysis of the transmission gear-ratio dependencies on the ratio of hydraulic machines capacities is carried out. Dependence of the variation of angular velocity of the coronary and the sun gears on the ground speed of the tractor is presented. Dependence of sum shaft torque and its constituents, carried by mechanical and hydraulic lines, on sum shaft angular velocity and ground speed of tractor and engine speed is also presented.

Roles of dispersal, stochasticity, and nonlinear dynamics in the spatial structuring of seasonal natural enemy-victim populations

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Patrick C. Tobin; Ottar N. Bjornstad

2005-01-01

Natural enemy-victim systems may exhibit a range of dynamic space-time patterns. We used a theoretical framework to study spatiotemporal structuring in a transient natural enemy-victim system subject to differential rates of dispersal, stochastic forcing, and nonlinear dynamics. Highly mobile natural enemies that attacked less mobile victims were locally spatially...

Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework

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Morgan E. Smith

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL, and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG. We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders.

SAInt – A novel quasi-dynamic model for assessing security of supply in coupled gas and electricity transmission networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pambour, Kwabena Addo; Cakir Erdener, Burcin; Bolado-Lavin, Ricardo; Dijkema, Gerhard P.J.

2017-01-01

The integration of renewable energy sources into existing electric power systems is connected with an increased interdependence between natural gas and electricity transmission networks. To analyse this interdependence and its impact on security of supply, we developed a novel quasi-dynamic

Some imaging characteristics of the dynamic spatial reconstructor X-ray scanner system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behrenbeck, T.; Sinak, L.J.; Robb, R.A.; Kinsey, J.H.; Ritman, E.L.

1984-01-01

In late 1979, the Dynamic Spatial Reconstructor (DSR), a multiple X-ray source, stop action, volume scanning imaging device was installed. At present, the operational characteristics and biomedical utility of the DSR are being evaluated. This research project involves scanning experimental animals and carefully selected patients with cardiovascular and pulmonary pathology. The DSR scanner utilizes a computerized transaxial tomography principle to generate images of transverse slices of the body. (Auth.)

An Epidemiological Model of Rift Valley Fever with Spatial Dynamics

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Tianchan Niu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available As a category A agent in the Center for Disease Control bioterrorism list, Rift Valley fever (RVF is considered a major threat to the United States (USA. Should the pathogen be intentionally or unintentionally introduced to the continental USA, there is tremendous potential for economic damages due to loss of livestock, trade restrictions, and subsequent food supply chain disruptions. We have incorporated the effects of space into a mathematical model of RVF in order to study the dynamics of the pathogen spread as affected by the movement of humans, livestock, and mosquitoes. The model accounts for the horizontal transmission of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV between two mosquito and one livestock species, and mother-to-offspring transmission of virus in one of the mosquito species. Space effects are introduced by dividing geographic space into smaller patches and considering the patch-to-patch movement of species. For each patch, a system of ordinary differential equations models fractions of populations susceptible to, incubating, infectious with, or immune to RVFV. The main contribution of this work is a methodology for analyzing the likelihood of pathogen establishment should an introduction occur into an area devoid of RVF. Examples are provided for general and specific cases to illustrate the methodology.

Quantifying Transmission Investment in Malaria Parasites.

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Megan A Greischar

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Many microparasites infect new hosts with specialized life stages, requiring a subset of the parasite population to forgo proliferation and develop into transmission forms. Transmission stage production influences infectivity, host exploitation, and the impact of medical interventions like drug treatment. Predicting how parasites will respond to public health efforts on both epidemiological and evolutionary timescales requires understanding transmission strategies. These strategies can rarely be observed directly and must typically be inferred from infection dynamics. Using malaria as a case study, we test previously described methods for inferring transmission stage investment against simulated data generated with a model of within-host infection dynamics, where the true transmission investment is known. We show that existing methods are inadequate and potentially very misleading. The key difficulty lies in separating transmission stages produced by different generations of parasites. We develop a new approach that performs much better on simulated data. Applying this approach to real data from mice infected with a single Plasmodium chabaudi strain, we estimate that transmission investment varies from zero to 20%, with evidence for variable investment over time in some hosts, but not others. These patterns suggest that, even in experimental infections where host genetics and other environmental factors are controlled, parasites may exhibit remarkably different patterns of transmission investment.

Probing spatial locality in ionic liquids with the grand canonical adaptive resolution molecular dynamics technique

Science.gov (United States)

Shadrack Jabes, B.; Krekeler, C.; Klein, R.; Delle Site, L.

2018-05-01

We employ the Grand Canonical Adaptive Resolution Simulation (GC-AdResS) molecular dynamics technique to test the spatial locality of the 1-ethyl 3-methyl imidazolium chloride liquid. In GC-AdResS, atomistic details are kept only in an open sub-region of the system while the environment is treated at coarse-grained level; thus, if spatial quantities calculated in such a sub-region agree with the equivalent quantities calculated in a full atomistic simulation, then the atomistic degrees of freedom outside the sub-region play a negligible role. The size of the sub-region fixes the degree of spatial locality of a certain quantity. We show that even for sub-regions whose radius corresponds to the size of a few molecules, spatial properties are reasonably reproduced thus suggesting a higher degree of spatial locality, a hypothesis put forward also by other researchers and that seems to play an important role for the characterization of fundamental properties of a large class of ionic liquids.

Urban sprawl and fragmentation in Latin America: a dynamic quantification and characterization of spatial patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Inostroza, Luis; Baur, Rolf; Csaplovics, Elmar

2013-01-30

South America is one of the most urbanized continents in the world, where almost 84% of the total population lives in cities, more urbanized than North America (82%) and Europe (73%). Spatial dynamics, their structure, main features, land consumption rates, spatial arrangement, fragmentation degrees and comparability, remain mostly unknown for most Latin American cities. Using satellite imagery the main parameters of sprawl are quantified for 10 Latin American cities over a period of 20 years by monitoring growth patterns and identifying spatial metrics to characterize urban development and sprawling features measured with GIS tools. This quantification contributes to a better understanding of urban form in Latin America. A pervasive spatial expansion has been observed, where most of the studied cities are expanding at fast rates with falling densities trend. Although important differences in the rates of land consumption and densities exist, there is an underlying fragmentation trend towards increasing sprawl. These trends of spatial discontinuity may eventually be intensified by further economic development. Urban Sprawl/Latin America/GIS metrics/spatial development. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mean-field modeling approach for understanding epidemic dynamics in interconnected networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu; Tang, Qinggan; Li, Kezan

2015-01-01

Modern systems (e.g., social, communicant, biological networks) are increasingly interconnected each other formed as ‘networks of networks’. Such complex systems usually possess inconsistent topologies and permit agents distributed in different subnetworks to interact directly/indirectly. Corresponding dynamics phenomena, such as the transmission of information, power, computer virus and disease, would exhibit complicated and heterogeneous tempo-spatial patterns. In this paper, we focus on the scenario of epidemic spreading in interconnected networks. We intend to provide a typical mean-field modeling framework to describe the time-evolution dynamics, and offer some mathematical skills to study the spreading threshold and the global stability of the model. Integrating the research with numerical analysis, we are able to quantify the effects of networks structure and epidemiology parameters on the transmission dynamics. Interestingly, we find that the diffusion transition in the whole network is governed by a unique threshold, which mainly depends on the most heterogenous connection patterns of network substructures. Further, the dynamics is highly sensitive to the critical values of cross infectivity with switchable phases.

Molecular assessment of Hepatozoon (Apicomplexa: Adeleorina) infections in wild canids and rodents from north Africa, with implications for transmission dynamics across taxonomic groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Maia, João P; Alvares, Francisco; Boratyński, Zbyszek; Brito, José C; Leite, João V; Harris, D James

2014-10-01

Parasites play a major role in ecosystems, and understanding of host-parasite interactions is important for predicting parasite transmission dynamics and epidemiology. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about the distribution, diversity, and impact of parasites in wildlife, especially from remote areas. Hepatozoon is a genus of apicomplexan parasites that is transmitted by ingestion of infected arthropod vectors. However, alternative modes of transmission have been identified such as trophic transmission. Using the 18S rRNA gene as a marker, we provide an assessment of Hepatozoon prevalence in six wild canid and two rodent species collected between 2003 and 2012 from remote areas in North Africa. By combining this with other predator-prey systems in a phylogenetic framework, we investigate Hepatozoon transmission dynamics in distinct host taxa. Prevalence was high overall among host species (African jerboa Jaculus jaculus [17/47, 36%], greater Egyptian jerboa Jaculus orientalis [5/7, 71%], side-striped jackal Canis adustus [1/2, 50%], golden jackal Canis aureus [6/32, 18%], pale fox Vulpes pallida [14/28, 50%], Rüppell's fox Vulpes rueppellii [6/11, 55%], red fox Vulpes vulpes [8/16, 50%], and fennec fox Vulpes zerda [7/11, 42%]). Phylogenetic analysis showed further evidence of occasional transmission of Hepatozoon lineages from prey to canid predators, which seems to occur less frequently than in other predator-prey systems such as between snakes and lizards. Due to the complex nature of the Hepatozoon lifecycle (heteroxenous and vector-borne), future studies on these wild host species need to clarify the dynamics of alternative modes of Hepatozoon transmission and identify reservoir and definitive hosts in natural populations. We also detected putative Babesia spp. (Apicomplexa: Piroplasmida) infections in two canid species from this region, V. pallida (1/28) and V. zerda (1/11).

Transmission Loss Calculation using A and B Loss Coefficients in Dynamic Economic Dispatch Problem

Science.gov (United States)

Jethmalani, C. H. Ram; Dumpa, Poornima; Simon, Sishaj P.; Sundareswaran, K.

2016-04-01

This paper analyzes the performance of A-loss coefficients while evaluating transmission losses in a Dynamic Economic Dispatch (DED) Problem. The performance analysis is carried out by comparing the losses computed using nominal A loss coefficients and nominal B loss coefficients in reference with load flow solution obtained by standard Newton-Raphson (NR) method. Density based clustering method based on connected regions with sufficiently high density (DBSCAN) is employed in identifying the best regions of A and B loss coefficients. Based on the results obtained through cluster analysis, a novel approach in improving the accuracy of network loss calculation is proposed. Here, based on the change in per unit load values between the load intervals, loss coefficients are updated for calculating the transmission losses. The proposed algorithm is tested and validated on IEEE 6 bus system, IEEE 14 bus, system IEEE 30 bus system and IEEE 118 bus system. All simulations are carried out using SCILAB 5.4 (www.scilab.org) which is an open source software.

Spatiotemporal Determinants of Urban Leptospirosis Transmission: Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study of Slum Residents in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagan, José E; Moraga, Paula; Costa, Federico; Capian, Nicolas; Ribeiro, Guilherme S; Wunder, Elsio A; Felzemburgh, Ridalva D M; Reis, Renato B; Nery, Nivison; Santana, Francisco S; Fraga, Deborah; Dos Santos, Balbino L; Santos, Andréia C; Queiroz, Adriano; Tassinari, Wagner; Carvalho, Marilia S; Reis, Mitermayer G; Diggle, Peter J; Ko, Albert I

2016-01-01

Rat-borne leptospirosis is an emerging zoonotic disease in urban slum settlements for which there are no adequate control measures. The challenge in elucidating risk factors and informing approaches for prevention is the complex and heterogeneous environment within slums, which vary at fine spatial scales and influence transmission of the bacterial agent. We performed a prospective study of 2,003 slum residents in the city of Salvador, Brazil during a four-year period (2003-2007) and used a spatiotemporal modelling approach to delineate the dynamics of leptospiral transmission. Household interviews and Geographical Information System surveys were performed annually to evaluate risk exposures and environmental transmission sources. We completed annual serosurveys to ascertain leptospiral infection based on serological evidence. Among the 1,730 (86%) individuals who completed at least one year of follow-up, the infection rate was 35.4 (95% CI, 30.7-40.6) per 1,000 annual follow-up events. Male gender, illiteracy, and age were independently associated with infection risk. Environmental risk factors included rat infestation (OR 1.46, 95% CI, 1.00-2.16), contact with mud (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.17-2.17) and lower household elevation (OR 0.92 per 10m increase in elevation, 95% CI 0.82-1.04). The spatial distribution of infection risk was highly heterogeneous and varied across small scales. Fixed effects in the spatiotemporal model accounted for the majority of the spatial variation in risk, but there was a significant residual component that was best explained by the spatial random effect. Although infection risk varied between years, the spatial distribution of risk associated with fixed and random effects did not vary temporally. Specific "hot-spots" consistently had higher transmission risk during study years. The risk for leptospiral infection in urban slums is determined in large part by structural features, both social and environmental. Our findings indicate that

Spatiotemporal Determinants of Urban Leptospirosis Transmission: Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study of Slum Residents in Brazil.

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José E Hagan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Rat-borne leptospirosis is an emerging zoonotic disease in urban slum settlements for which there are no adequate control measures. The challenge in elucidating risk factors and informing approaches for prevention is the complex and heterogeneous environment within slums, which vary at fine spatial scales and influence transmission of the bacterial agent.We performed a prospective study of 2,003 slum residents in the city of Salvador, Brazil during a four-year period (2003-2007 and used a spatiotemporal modelling approach to delineate the dynamics of leptospiral transmission. Household interviews and Geographical Information System surveys were performed annually to evaluate risk exposures and environmental transmission sources. We completed annual serosurveys to ascertain leptospiral infection based on serological evidence. Among the 1,730 (86% individuals who completed at least one year of follow-up, the infection rate was 35.4 (95% CI, 30.7-40.6 per 1,000 annual follow-up events. Male gender, illiteracy, and age were independently associated with infection risk. Environmental risk factors included rat infestation (OR 1.46, 95% CI, 1.00-2.16, contact with mud (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.17-2.17 and lower household elevation (OR 0.92 per 10m increase in elevation, 95% CI 0.82-1.04. The spatial distribution of infection risk was highly heterogeneous and varied across small scales. Fixed effects in the spatiotemporal model accounted for the majority of the spatial variation in risk, but there was a significant residual component that was best explained by the spatial random effect. Although infection risk varied between years, the spatial distribution of risk associated with fixed and random effects did not vary temporally. Specific "hot-spots" consistently had higher transmission risk during study years.The risk for leptospiral infection in urban slums is determined in large part by structural features, both social and environmental. Our findings

Spread of plague among black-tailed prairie dogs is associated with colony spatial characteristics

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Johnson, T.L.; Cully, J.F.; Collinge, S.K.; Ray, C.; Frey, C.M.; Sandercock, B.K.

2011-01-01

Sylvatic plague (Yersinia pestis) is an exotic pathogen that is highly virulent in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) and causes widespread colony losses and individual mortality rates >95%. We investigated colony spatial characteristics that may influence inter-colony transmission of plague at 3 prairie dog colony complexes in the Great Plains. The 4 spatial characteristics we considered include: colony size, Euclidean distance to nearest neighboring colony, colony proximity index, and distance to nearest drainage (dispersal) corridor. We used multi-state mark-recapture models to determine the relationship between these colony characteristics and probability of plague transmission among prairie dog colonies. Annual mapping of colonies and mark-recapture analyses of disease dynamics in natural colonies led to 4 main results: 1) plague outbreaks exhibited high spatial and temporal variation, 2) the site of initiation of epizootic plague may have substantially influenced the subsequent inter-colony spread of plague, 3) the long-term effect of plague on individual colonies differed among sites because of how individuals and colonies were distributed, and 4) colony spatial characteristics were related to the probability of infection at all sites although the relative importance and direction of relationships varied among sites. Our findings suggest that conventional prairie dog conservation management strategies, including promoting large, highly connected colonies, may need to be altered in the presence of plague. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

HVDC transmission from nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshida, Yukio; Takenaka, Kiyoshi; Taniguchi, Haruto; Ueda, Kiyotaka

1980-01-01

HVDC transmission directly from a nuclear power plant is expected as one of the bulk power transmission systems from distant power generating area. Successively from the analysis of HVDC transmission from BWR-type nuclear power plant, this report discusses dynamic response characteristics of HVDC transmission (double poles, two circuits) from PWR type nuclear power plant due to dc-line faults (DC-1LG, 2LG) and ac-line faults (3LG) near inverter station. (author)

Transmission dynamics of Bacillus thuringiensis infecting Plodia interpunctella: a test of the mass action assumption with an insect pathogen.

Science.gov (United States)

Knell, R J; Begon, M; Thompson, D J

1996-01-22

Central to theoretical studies of host-pathogen population dynamics is a term describing transmission of the pathogen. This usually assumes that transmission is proportional to the density of infectious hosts or particles and of susceptible individuals. We tested this assumption with the bacterial pathogen Bacillus thuringiensis infecting larvae of Plodia interpunctella, the Indian meal moth. Transmission was found to increase in a more than linear way with host density in fourth and fifth instar P. interpunctella, and to decrease with the density of infectious cadavers in the case of fifth instar larvae. Food availability was shown to play an important part in this process. Therefore, on a number of counts, the usual assumption was found not to apply in our experimental system.

Development of new two-dimensional spectral/spatial code based on dynamic cyclic shift code for OCDMA system

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Jellali, Nabiha; Najjar, Monia; Ferchichi, Moez; Rezig, Houria

2017-07-01

In this paper, a new two-dimensional spectral/spatial codes family, named two dimensional dynamic cyclic shift codes (2D-DCS) is introduced. The 2D-DCS codes are derived from the dynamic cyclic shift code for the spectral and spatial coding. The proposed system can fully eliminate the multiple access interference (MAI) by using the MAI cancellation property. The effect of shot noise, phase-induced intensity noise and thermal noise are used to analyze the code performance. In comparison with existing two dimensional (2D) codes, such as 2D perfect difference (2D-PD), 2D Extended Enhanced Double Weight (2D-Extended-EDW) and 2D hybrid (2D-FCC/MDW) codes, the numerical results show that our proposed codes have the best performance. By keeping the same code length and increasing the spatial code, the performance of our 2D-DCS system is enhanced: it provides higher data rates while using lower transmitted power and a smaller spectral width.

Spatial dynamics of a nutrient-phytoplankton system with toxic effect on phytoplankton.

Science.gov (United States)

Chakraborty, Subhendu; Tiwari, P K; Misra, A K; Chattopadhyay, J

2015-06-01

The production of toxins by some species of phytoplankton is known to have several economic, ecological, and human health impacts. However, the role of toxins on the spatial distribution of phytoplankton is not well understood. In the present study, the spatial dynamics of a nutrient-phytoplankton system with toxic effect on phytoplankton is investigated. We analyze the linear stability of the system and obtain the condition for Turing instability. In the presence of toxic effect, we find that the distribution of nutrient and phytoplankton becomes inhomogeneous in space and results in different patterns, like stripes, spots, and the mixture of them depending on the toxicity level. We also observe that the distribution of nutrient and phytoplankton shows spatiotemporal oscillation for certain toxicity level. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ELABORATION OF THE COMPUTATIONAL MODEL OF THE PLANETARY PRECESSIONAL TRANSMISSION

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BOSTAN Ion

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The specific character of sphere-spatial motion used in the precessional transmissions makes impossible the utilization of involute profiles of classical teeth. This fact requires the elaboration of new non-standard profiles, which in conditions of using the sphere-spatial motion with an immovable point of the satellite would assure constancy transfer function, the multiplicity of the precessional gear and consequently high carrying capacity of the precessional transmission in general.

Plasmodium knowlesi transmission: integrating quantitative approaches from epidemiology and ecology to understand malaria as a zoonosis.

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Brock, P M; Fornace, K M; Parmiter, M; Cox, J; Drakeley, C J; Ferguson, H M; Kao, R R

2016-04-01

The public health threat posed by zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi appears to be growing: it is increasingly reported across South East Asia, and is the leading cause of malaria in Malaysian Borneo. Plasmodium knowlesi threatens progress towards malaria elimination as aspects of its transmission, such as spillover from wildlife reservoirs and reliance on outdoor-biting vectors, may limit the effectiveness of conventional methods of malaria control. The development of new quantitative approaches that address the ecological complexity of P. knowlesi, particularly through a focus on its primary reservoir hosts, will be required to control it. Here, we review what is known about P. knowlesi transmission, identify key knowledge gaps in the context of current approaches to transmission modelling, and discuss the integration of these approaches with clinical parasitology and geostatistical analysis. We highlight the need to incorporate the influences of fine-scale spatial variation, rapid changes to the landscape, and reservoir population and transmission dynamics. The proposed integrated approach would address the unique challenges posed by malaria as a zoonosis, aid the identification of transmission hotspots, provide insight into the mechanistic links between incidence and land use change and support the design of appropriate interventions.

Transmission of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer: Implications for disease spread and management

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Jennelle, Christopher S.; Henaux, Viviane; Wasserberg, Gideon; Thiagarajan, Bala; Rolley, Robert E.; Samuel, Michael D.

2014-01-01

Few studies have evaluated the rate of infection or mode of transmission for wildlife diseases, and the implications of alternative management strategies. We used hunter harvest data from 2002 to 2013 to investigate chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection rate and transmission modes, and address how alternative management approaches affect disease dynamics in a Wisconsin white-tailed deer population. Uncertainty regarding demographic impacts of CWD on cervid populations, human and domestic animal health concerns, and potential economic consequences underscore the need for strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Using maximum-likelihood methods to evaluate alternative multi-state deterministic models of CWD transmission, harvest data strongly supports a frequency-dependent transmission structure with sex-specific infection rates that are two times higher in males than females. As transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are an important and difficult-to-study class of diseases with major economic and ecological implications, our work supports the hypothesis of frequency-dependent transmission in wild deer at a broad spatial scale and indicates that effective harvest management can be implemented to control CWD prevalence. Specifically, we show that harvest focused on the greater-affected sex (males) can result in stable population dynamics and control of CWD within the next 50 years, given the constraints of the model. We also provide a quantitative estimate of geographic disease spread in southern Wisconsin, validating qualitative assessments that CWD spreads relatively slowly. Given increased discovery and distribution of CWD throughout North America, insights from our study are valuable to management agencies and to the general public concerned about the impacts of CWD on white-tailed deer populations.

Dynamical Mapping of Anopheles darlingi Densities in a Residual Malaria Transmission Area of French Guiana by Using Remote Sensing and Meteorological Data.

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Antoine Adde

Full Text Available Local variation in the density of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of exposure to bites are essential to explain the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the transmission of malaria. Vector distribution is driven by environmental factors. Based on variables derived from satellite imagery and meteorological observations, this study aimed to dynamically model and map the densities of Anopheles darlingi in the municipality of Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock (French Guiana. Longitudinal sampling sessions of An. darlingi densities were conducted between September 2012 and October 2014. Landscape and meteorological data were collected and processed to extract a panel of variables that were potentially related to An. darlingi ecology. Based on these data, a robust methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-temporal variations in the densities of An. darlingi in Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock. The final cross-validated model integrated two landscape variables-dense forest surface and built surface-together with four meteorological variables related to rainfall, evapotranspiration, and the minimal and maximal temperatures. Extrapolation of the model allowed the generation of predictive weekly maps of An. darlingi densities at a resolution of 10-m. Our results supported the use of satellite imagery and meteorological data to predict malaria vector densities. Such fine-scale modeling approach might be a useful tool for health authorities to plan control strategies and social communication in a cost-effective, targeted, and timely manner.

Dynamical Mapping of Anopheles darlingi Densities in a Residual Malaria Transmission Area of French Guiana by Using Remote Sensing and Meteorological Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Adde, Antoine; Roux, Emmanuel; Mangeas, Morgan; Dessay, Nadine; Nacher, Mathieu; Dusfour, Isabelle; Girod, Romain; Briolant, Sébastien

2016-01-01

Local variation in the density of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of exposure to bites are essential to explain the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in the transmission of malaria. Vector distribution is driven by environmental factors. Based on variables derived from satellite imagery and meteorological observations, this study aimed to dynamically model and map the densities of Anopheles darlingi in the municipality of Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock (French Guiana). Longitudinal sampling sessions of An. darlingi densities were conducted between September 2012 and October 2014. Landscape and meteorological data were collected and processed to extract a panel of variables that were potentially related to An. darlingi ecology. Based on these data, a robust methodology was formed to estimate a statistical predictive model of the spatial-temporal variations in the densities of An. darlingi in Saint-Georges de l'Oyapock. The final cross-validated model integrated two landscape variables-dense forest surface and built surface-together with four meteorological variables related to rainfall, evapotranspiration, and the minimal and maximal temperatures. Extrapolation of the model allowed the generation of predictive weekly maps of An. darlingi densities at a resolution of 10-m. Our results supported the use of satellite imagery and meteorological data to predict malaria vector densities. Such fine-scale modeling approach might be a useful tool for health authorities to plan control strategies and social communication in a cost-effective, targeted, and timely manner.

Spatial-temporal dynamics of broadband terahertz Bessel beam propagation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semenova, V A; Kulya, M S; Bespalov, V G

2016-01-01

The unique properties of narrowband and broadband terahertz Bessel beams have led to a number of their applications in different fields, for example, for the depth of focusing and resolution enhancement in terahertz imaging. However, broadband terahertz Bessel beams can probably be also used for the diffraction minimization in the short-range broadband terahertz communications. For this purpose, the study of spatial-temporal dynamics of the broadband terahertz Bessel beams is needed. Here we present a simulation-based study of the propagating in non-dispersive medium broadband Bessel beams generated by a conical axicon lens. The algorithm based on scalar diffraction theory was used to obtain the spatial amplitude and phase distributions of the Bessel beam in the frequency range from 0.1 to 3 THz at the distances 10-200 mm from the axicon. Bessel beam field is studied for the different spectral components of the initial pulse. The simulation results show that for the given parameters of the axicon lens one can obtain the Gauss-Bessel beam generation in the spectral range from 0.1 to 3 THz. The length of non-diffraction propagation for a different spectral components was measured, and it was shown that for all spectral components of the initial pulse this length is about 130 mm. (paper)

Modelling hen harrier dynamics to inform human-wildlife conflict resolution: a spatially-realistic, individual-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinonen, Johannes P M; Palmer, Stephen C F; Redpath, Steve M; Travis, Justin M J

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.

Modelling hen harrier dynamics to inform human-wildlife conflict resolution: a spatially-realistic, individual-based approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johannes P M Heinonen

Full Text Available Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.

An Integrated Approach Using Spatial Analysis to Study the Risk Factors for Leishmaniasis in Area of Recent Transmission

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Júlia Alves Menezes

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Some epidemiological aspects of leishmaniasis in the municipality of Formiga, Brazil, an important touristic site, were evaluated. Those included phlebotomine sand fly vectors, canine infection, and geoprocessing analysis for determining critical transmission areas. Sand flies (224 insects belonging to ten different species were captured. The most captured species included Lutzomyia longipalpis (35.3%, Lutzomyia cortelezzii (33.5%, and Lutzomyia whitmani (18.3%. A significant correlation between sand fly densities and climatic conditions was detected. Serological diagnosis (DPP and ELISA was performed in 570 dogs indicating a prevalence of 5.8%. After sequencing the main species circulating in the area were Leishmania infantum and Leishmania braziliensis. Spatial analysis demonstrated that vegetation and hydrography may be related to sand fly distribution and infected dogs. The municipality of Formiga has proven leishmaniasis vectors and infected dogs indicating the circulation of the parasite in the city. Correlation of those data with environmental and human cases has identified the critical areas for control interventions (south, northeast, and northwest. In conclusion, there is current transmission of visceral and canine human cases and the city is on the risk for the appearance of cutaneous cases.

The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

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Harriet L Mills

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city; population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods. Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

A Space Cam Mechanism for Power Transmission of an Opposite-cylinder Piston Engine

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Zhang Haoyue

2015-01-01

Full Text Available For the purpose of improving the engine’s power density, we put forward a new type of power transmission mechanism which is used for opposed-cylinder engine. The gas pressure acts on the cam through the piston and push rod, and the spindle rotation of external is driven by the cam. The design of spatial cam work surface is completed by using the enveloping theory of a family of space curves, the force between roller and cam is analyzed using dynamic analysis software. Under the condition of equal number, size and stroke of piston, the new one with larger power density is more compact in structure than the traditional power transmission mechanism, and the reaction force on either side of the main shaft and the acting force between pistons and cylinders are smaller than those in traditional one, which prolongs the service life of the pistons.

Combining in situ transmission electron microscopy irradiation experiments with cluster dynamics modeling to study nanoscale defect agglomeration in structural metals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Donghua; Wirth, Brian D.; Li Meimei; Kirk, Marquis A.

2012-01-01

We present a combinatorial approach that integrates state-of-the-art transmission electron microscopy (TEM) in situ irradiation experiments and high-performance computing techniques to study irradiation defect dynamics in metals. Here, we have studied the evolution of visible defect clusters in nanometer-thick molybdenum foils under 1 MeV krypton ion irradiation at 80 °C through both cluster dynamics modeling and in situ TEM experiments. The experimental details are reported elsewhere; we focus here on the details of model construction and comparing the model with the experiments. The model incorporates continuous production of point defects and/or small clusters, and the accompanying interactions, which include clustering, recombination and loss to the surfaces that result from the diffusion of the mobile defects. To account for the strong surface effect in thin TEM foils, the model includes one-dimensional spatial dependence along the foil depth, and explicitly treats the surfaces as black sinks. The rich amount of data (cluster number density and size distribution at a variety of foil thickness, irradiation dose and dose rate) offered by the advanced in situ experiments has allowed close comparisons with computer modeling and permitted significant validation and optimization of the model in terms of both physical model construct (damage production mode, identities of mobile defects) and parameterization (diffusivities of mobile defects). The optimized model exhibits good qualitative and quantitative agreement with the in situ TEM experiments. The combinatorial approach is expected to bring a unique opportunity for the study of radiation damage in structural materials.

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Sediment Anaerobic Ammonium Oxidation (Anammox) Bacteria in Freshwater Lakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yuyin; Dai, Yu; Li, Ningning; Li, Bingxin; Xie, Shuguang; Liu, Yong

2017-02-01

Anaerobic ammonium-oxidizing (anammox) process can play an important role in freshwater nitrogen cycle. However, the distribution of anammox bacteria in freshwater lake and the associated environmental factors remain essentially unclear. The present study investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of sediment anammox bacterial populations in eutrotrophic Dianchi Lake and mesotrophic Erhai Lake on the Yunnan Plateau (southwestern China). The remarkable spatial change of anammox bacterial abundance was found in Dianchi Lake, while the relatively slight spatial shift occurred in Erhai Lake. Dianchi Lake had greater anammox bacterial abundance than Erhai Lake. In both Dianchi Lake and Erhai Lake, anammox bacteria were much more abundant in summer than in spring. Anammox bacterial community richness, diversity, and structure in these two freshwater lakes were subjected to temporal and spatial variations. Sediment anammox bacterial communities in Dianchi Lake and Erhai Lake were dominated by Candidatus Brocadia and a novel phylotype followed by Candidatus Kuenenia; however, these two lakes had distinct anammox bacterial community structure. In addition, trophic status determined sediment anammox bacterial community structure.

Transmission Line Ampacity Improvements of AltaLink Wind Plant Overhead Tie-Lines Using Weather-Based Dynamic Line Rating

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhattarai, Bishnu P.; Gentle, Jake P.; Hill, Porter; McJunkin, Tim; Myers, Kurt S.; Abbound, Alex; Renwick, Rodger; Hengst, David

2017-07-01

Abstract—Overhead transmission lines (TLs) are conventionally given seasonal ratings based on conservative environmental assumptions. Such an approach often results in underutilization of the line ampacity as the worst conditions prevail only for a short period over a year/season. We presents dynamic line rating (DLR) as an enabling smart grid technology that adaptively computes ratings of TLs based on local weather conditions to utilize additional headroom of existing lines. In particular, general line ampacity state solver utilizes measured weather data for computing the real-time thermal rating of the TLs. The performance of the presented method is demonstrated from a field study of DLR technology implementation on four TL segments at AltaLink, Canada. The performance is evaluated and quantified by comparing the existing static and proposed dynamic line ratings, and the potential benefits of DLR for enhanced transmission assets utilization. For the given line segments, the proposed DLR results in real-time ratings above the seasonal static ratings for most of the time; up to 95.1% of the time, with a mean increase of 72% over static rating.

The Dynamics of Transmission and Spatial Distribution of Malaria in Riverside Areas of Porto Velho, Rondônia, in the Amazon Region of Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Katsuragawa, Tony Hiroshi; Gil, Luiz Herman Soares; Tada, Mauro Shugiro; Silva, Alexandre de Almeida e; Costa, Joana D'Arc Neves; da Silva Araújo, Maisa; Escobar, Ana Lúcia; Pereira da Silva, Luiz Hildebrando

2010-01-01

The study area in Rondônia was the site of extensive malaria epidemic outbreaks in the 19th and 20th centuries related to environmental impacts, with large immigration flows. The present work analyzes the transmission dynamics of malaria in these areas to propose measures for avoiding epidemic outbreaks due to the construction of two Hydroelectric Power Plants. A population based baseline demographic census and a malaria prevalence follow up were performed in two river side localities in the suburbs of Porto Velho city and in its rural vicinity. The quantification and nature of malaria parasites in clinical patients and asymptomatic parasite carriers were performed using microscopic and Real Time PCR methodologies. Anopheles densities and their seasonal variation were done by monthly captures for defining HBR (hourly biting rate) values. Main results: (i) malaria among residents show the riverside profile, with population at risk represented by children and young adults; (ii) asymptomatic vivax and falciparum malaria parasite carriers correspond to around 15% of adults living in the area; (iii) vivax malaria relapses were responsible for 30% of clinical cases; (iv) malaria risk for the residents was evaluated as 20–25% for vivax and 5–7% for falciparum malaria; (v) anopheline densities shown outdoors HBR values 5 to 10 fold higher than indoors and reach 10.000 bites/person/year; (vi) very high incidence observed in one of the surveyed localities was explained by a micro epidemic outbreak affecting visitors and temporary residents. Temporary residents living in tents or shacks are accessible to outdoors transmission. Seasonal fishermen were the main group at risk in the study and were responsible for a 2.6 fold increase in the malaria incidence in the locality. This situation illustrates the danger of extensive epidemic outbreaks when thousands of workers and secondary immigrant population will arrive attracted by opportunities opened by the Hydroelectric Power

The dynamics of transmission and spatial distribution of malaria in riverside areas of Porto Velho, Rondônia, in the Amazon region of Brazil.

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Tony Hiroshi Katsuragawa

Full Text Available UNLABELLED: The study area in Rondônia was the site of extensive malaria epidemic outbreaks in the 19(th and 20(th centuries related to environmental impacts, with large immigration flows. The present work analyzes the transmission dynamics of malaria in these areas to propose measures for avoiding epidemic outbreaks due to the construction of two Hydroelectric Power Plants. A population based baseline demographic census and a malaria prevalence follow up were performed in two river side localities in the suburbs of Porto Velho city and in its rural vicinity. The quantification and nature of malaria parasites in clinical patients and asymptomatic parasite carriers were performed using microscopic and Real Time PCR methodologies. Anopheles densities and their seasonal variation were done by monthly captures for defining HBR (hourly biting rate values. MAIN RESULTS: (i malaria among residents show the riverside profile, with population at risk represented by children and young adults; (ii asymptomatic vivax and falciparum malaria parasite carriers correspond to around 15% of adults living in the area; (iii vivax malaria relapses were responsible for 30% of clinical cases; (iv malaria risk for the residents was evaluated as 20-25% for vivax and 5-7% for falciparum malaria; (v anopheline densities shown outdoors HBR values 5 to 10 fold higher than indoors and reach 10.000 bites/person/year; (vi very high incidence observed in one of the surveyed localities was explained by a micro epidemic outbreak affecting visitors and temporary residents. Temporary residents living in tents or shacks are accessible to outdoors transmission. Seasonal fishermen were the main group at risk in the study and were responsible for a 2.6 fold increase in the malaria incidence in the locality. This situation illustrates the danger of extensive epidemic outbreaks when thousands of workers and secondary immigrant population will arrive attracted by opportunities opened by

Horizontal transmission of the ectoparasite Gyrodactylus arcuatus (Monogenea: Gyrodactylidae) to the next generation of the three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus.

Science.gov (United States)

Lumme, Jaakko; Zietara, Marek S

2018-04-19

In the parthenogenetic monogeneans of the genus Gyrodactylus Nordmann, 1832, the genetic diversity within or between hosts is determined by the relative roles of lateral transmission and clonal propagation. Clonality and limited transmission lead to high-amplitude metapopulation dynamics and strong genetic drift. In Baltic populations of the three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus Linnaeus, the local mitochondrial diversity of Gyrodactylus arcuatus Bychowsky, 1933 is very high, and spatial differentiation weak. To understand the transmission dynamics in a single location, the transmission of the parasite from adults to next generation sticklebacks was investigated in a northern Baltic brackish water location. By sequencing 777 nt of cox1, as many as 38 separate mitochondrial haplotypes were identified. In August, the intensity of gyrodactylid infection on adult hosts was high, the haplotype diversity (h) was extreme and differentiation between fish was negligible (total h = 0.926, mean h = 0.938). In October, only 46% of the juvenile sticklebacks carried G. arcuatus. The number of parasites per young fish followed a Poisson distribution 0.92 ± 1.04 (mean ± SD) on October 2, and was clearly overdispersed 2.38 ± 5.00 on October 25. The total haplotype diversity of parasites on juveniles was nearly as high as in adults (h = 0.916), but the mean per fish was only h = 0.364 (F ST = 0.60), due to low intensity of infection and rapid clonal propagation of early arrivals. The initial first come first served advantage of the first gyrodactylid colonisers will be lost during the host adulthood via continuous transmission. Nesting and polygamy are suggested as factors maintaining the high genetic diversity of the parasite population. The transmission dynamics and, consequently, the population structure of Baltic G. arcuatus is fundamentally different from that of G. salaris Malmberg, 1957, on the Baltic salmon Salmo salar Linnaeus.

Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

2012-01-01

Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

ECRH transmission system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tancredi, J.

1983-01-01

Hughes, Electron Dynamics Division is developing gyrotrons for ECRH requirements. In the development program, techniques have been evolved for transmission system components. These techniques include over-moded waveguide tapers, high average power windows, and rf water loads for testing

The evolution of solid density within a thermal explosion II. Dynamic proton radiography of cracking and solid consumption by burning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smilowitz, L.; Henson, B. F.; Romero, J. J.; Asay, B. W.; Saunders, A.; Merrill, F. E.; Morris, C. L.; Kwiatkowski, K.; Grim, G.; Mariam, F.; Schwartz, C. L.; Hogan, G.; Nedrow, P.; Murray, M. M.; Thompson, T. N.; Espinoza, C.; Lewis, D.; Bainbridge, J.; McNeil, W.; Rightley, P.

2012-01-01

We report proton transmission images obtained subsequent to the laser assisted thermal ignition of a sample of PBX 9501 (a plastic bonded formulation of the explosive nitramine octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX)). We describe the laser assisted thermal ignition technique as a means to synchronize a non-linear thermal ignition event while preserving the subsequent post-ignition behavior. We have obtained dynamic proton transmission images at two spatial magnifications and viewed both the radial and transverse axis of a solid cylindrical sample encased in aluminum. Images have been obtained with 3 to 15 μs temporal resolution and approximately 100 μm spatial resolution at the higher magnification. We observe case expansion from very early in the experiment, until case fragmentation. We observe spatially anisotropic features in the transmission which we attribute to cracking in the solid explosive, in agreement with previous measurements conducted on two dimensional samples with optical viewing. Digital analysis of the images also reveals spatially isotropic features which we attribute to the evolution of the loss of density by burning subsequent to thermal ignition.

The evolution of solid density within a thermal explosion II. Dynamic proton radiography of cracking and solid consumption by burning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smilowitz, L.; Henson, B. F.; Romero, J. J.; Asay, B. W.; Saunders, A.; Merrill, F. E.; Morris, C. L.; Kwiatkowski, K.; Grim, G.; Mariam, F.; Schwartz, C. L.; Hogan, G.; Nedrow, P.; Murray, M. M.; Thompson, T. N.; Espinoza, C.; Lewis, D.; Bainbridge, J.; McNeil, W.; Rightley, P. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545 (United States); and others

2012-05-15

We report proton transmission images obtained subsequent to the laser assisted thermal ignition of a sample of PBX 9501 (a plastic bonded formulation of the explosive nitramine octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX)). We describe the laser assisted thermal ignition technique as a means to synchronize a non-linear thermal ignition event while preserving the subsequent post-ignition behavior. We have obtained dynamic proton transmission images at two spatial magnifications and viewed both the radial and transverse axis of a solid cylindrical sample encased in aluminum. Images have been obtained with 3 to 15 {mu}s temporal resolution and approximately 100 {mu}m spatial resolution at the higher magnification. We observe case expansion from very early in the experiment, until case fragmentation. We observe spatially anisotropic features in the transmission which we attribute to cracking in the solid explosive, in agreement with previous measurements conducted on two dimensional samples with optical viewing. Digital analysis of the images also reveals spatially isotropic features which we attribute to the evolution of the loss of density by burning subsequent to thermal ignition.

HVDC transmission from isorated nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takenaka, Kiyoshi; Takasaki, Masahiro; Ichikawa, Tatemi; Hayashi, Toshiyuki

1985-01-01

HVDC transmission directly from nuclear power plant is considered as one of the patterns of long distance and large capacity transmission system. This reports considers two route HVDC transmission from PWR type nuclear power plant, and analyzes dynamic response characteristics due to bus fault, main protection failure and etc. using the AC-DC Power System Simulator. (author)

Dynamic environmental transmission electron microscopy observation of platinum electrode catalyst deactivation in a proton-exchange-membrane fuel cell.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshida, Kenta; Xudong, Zhang; Bright, Alexander N; Saitoh, Koh; Tanaka, Nobuo

2013-02-15

Spherical-aberration-corrected environmental transmission electron microscopy (AC-ETEM) was applied to study the catalytic activity of platinum/amorphous carbon electrode catalysts in proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). These electrode catalysts were characterized in different atmospheres, such as hydrogen and air, and a conventional high vacuum of 10(-5) Pa. A high-speed charge coupled device camera was used to capture real-time movies to dynamically study the diffusion and reconstruction of nanoparticles with an information transfer down to 0.1 nm, a time resolution below 0.2 s and an acceleration voltage of 300 kV. With such high spatial and time resolution, AC-ETEM permits the visualization of surface-atom behaviour that dominates the coalescence and surface-reconstruction processes of the nanoparticles. To contribute to the development of robust PEMFC platinum/amorphous carbon electrode catalysts, the change in the specific surface area of platinum particles was evaluated in hydrogen and air atmospheres. The deactivation of such catalysts during cycle operation is a serious problem that must be resolved for the practical use of PEMFCs in real vehicles. In this paper, the mechanism for the deactivation of platinum/amorphous carbon electrode catalysts is discussed using the decay rate of the specific surface area of platinum particles, measured first in a vacuum and then in hydrogen and air atmospheres for comparison.

Seasonal and regional dynamics of M. ulcerans transmission in environmental context: deciphering the role of water bugs as hosts and vectors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marion, Estelle; Eyangoh, Sara; Yeramian, Edouard; Doannio, Julien; Landier, Jordi; Aubry, Jacques; Fontanet, Arnaud; Rogier, Christophe; Cassisa, Viviane; Cottin, Jane; Marot, Agnès; Eveillard, Matthieu; Kamdem, Yannick; Legras, Pierre; Deshayes, Caroline; Saint-André, Jean-Paul; Marsollier, Laurent

2010-07-06

Buruli ulcer, the third mycobacterial disease after tuberculosis and leprosy, is caused by the environmental mycobacterium M. ulcerans. Various modes of transmission have been suspected for this disease, with no general consensus acceptance for any of them up to now. Since laboratory models demonstrated the ability of water bugs to transmit M. ulcerans, a particular attention is focused on the transmission of the bacilli by water bugs as hosts and vectors. However, it is only through detailed knowledge of the biodiversity and ecology of water bugs that the importance of this mode of transmission can be fully assessed. It is the objective of the work here to decipher the role of water bugs in M. ulcerans ecology and transmission, based on large-scale field studies. The distribution of M. ulcerans-hosting water bugs was monitored on previously unprecedented time and space scales: a total of 7,407 water bugs, belonging to large number of different families, were collected over one year, in Buruli ulcer endemic and non endemic areas in central Cameroon. This study demonstrated the presence of M. ulcerans in insect saliva. In addition, the field results provided a full picture of the ecology of transmission in terms of biodiversity and detailed specification of seasonal and regional dynamics, with large temporal heterogeneity in the insect tissue colonization rate and detection of M. ulcerans only in water bug tissues collected in Buruli ulcer endemic areas. The large-scale detection of bacilli in saliva of biting water bugs gives enhanced weight to their role in M. ulcerans transmission. On practical grounds, beyond the ecological interest, the results concerning seasonal and regional dynamics can provide an efficient tool in the hands of sanitary authorities to monitor environmental risks associated with Buruli ulcer.

Parameterizing Spatial Models of Infectious Disease Transmission that Incorporate Infection Time Uncertainty Using Sampling-Based Likelihood Approximations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rajat Malik

Full Text Available A class of discrete-time models of infectious disease spread, referred to as individual-level models (ILMs, are typically fitted in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC framework. These models quantify probabilistic outcomes regarding the risk of infection of susceptible individuals due to various susceptibility and transmissibility factors, including their spatial distance from infectious individuals. The infectious pressure from infected individuals exerted on susceptible individuals is intrinsic to these ILMs. Unfortunately, quantifying this infectious pressure for data sets containing many individuals can be computationally burdensome, leading to a time-consuming likelihood calculation and, thus, computationally prohibitive MCMC-based analysis. This problem worsens when using data augmentation to allow for uncertainty in infection times. In this paper, we develop sampling methods that can be used to calculate a fast, approximate likelihood when fitting such disease models. A simple random sampling approach is initially considered followed by various spatially-stratified schemes. We test and compare the performance of our methods with both simulated data and data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD epidemic in the U.K. Our results indicate that substantial computation savings can be obtained--albeit, of course, with some information loss--suggesting that such techniques may be of use in the analysis of very large epidemic data sets.

Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review.

Science.gov (United States)

Eikenberry, Steffen E; Gumel, Abba B

2018-04-24

Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

Wave transmission in nonlinear lattices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hennig, D.; Tsironis, G.P.

1999-01-01

The interplay of nonlinearity with lattice discreteness leads to phenomena and propagation properties quite distinct from those appearing in continuous nonlinear systems. For a large variety of condensed matter and optics applications the continuous wave approximation is not appropriate. In the present review we discuss wave transmission properties in one dimensional nonlinear lattices. Our paradigmatic equations are discrete nonlinear Schroedinger equations and their study is done through a dynamical systems approach. We focus on stationary wave properties and utilize well known results from the theory of dynamical systems to investigate various aspects of wave transmission and wave localization. We analyze in detail the more general dynamical system corresponding to the equation that interpolates between the non-integrable discrete nonlinear Schroedinger equation and the integrable Albowitz-Ladik equation. We utilize this analysis in a nonlinear Kronig-Penney model and investigate transmission and band modification properties. We discuss the modifications that are effected through an electric field and the nonlinear Wannier-Stark localization effects that are induced. Several applications are described, such as polarons in one dimensional lattices, semiconductor superlattices and one dimensional nonlinear photonic band gap systems. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

Spatial knowledge dynamics of innovation processes: local and non-local aspects of buzz and collective learning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tanner, Anne Nygaard

2014-01-01

learning processes and require face-to-face contact. In sum, the innovation biography method contributes in uncovering innovation processes and how these rely on many different configurations of spatial knowledge dynamics, including buzz, local ties and global pipelines. The findings imply that policy...

Natural Characteristics of The Herringbone Gear Transmission System

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Jianxing; Sun, Wenlei; Cao, Li

2018-03-01

According to the structure characteristics of herringbone gear transmission, a more realistic dynamic model of the transmission system is built in consideration of the inner excitation, herringbone gears axial positioning and sliding bearing etc. The natural frequencies of the system are calculated, and the vibration mode is divided into symmetric vibration modes and asymmetric vibration modes. The time history of system dynamic force is obtained by solving the dynamic model. The effects of the connection stiffness of left and right sides of herringbone gears and axial support stiffness on natural characteristics are discussed.

Influence of impulsivity-reflexivity when testing dynamic spatial ability: sex and g differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Quiroga, M Angeles; Hernández, José Manuel; Rubio, Victor; Shih, Pei Chun; Santacreu, José

2007-11-01

This work analyzes the possibility that the differences in the performance of men and women in dynamic spatial tasks such as the Spatial Orientation Dynamic Test-Revised (SODT-R; Santacreu & Rubio, 1998), obtained in previous works, are due to cognitive style (Reflexivity-Impulsivity) or to the speed-accuracy tradeoff (SATO) that the participants implement. If these differences are due to cognitive style, they would be independent of intelligence, whereas if they are due to SATO, they may be associated with intelligence. In this work, 1652 participants, 984 men and 668 women, ages between 18 and 55 years, were assessed. In addition to the SODT-R, the "Test de Razonamiento Analitico, Secuencial e Inductivo" (TRASI [Analytical, Sequential, and Inductive Reasoning Test]; Rubio & Santacreu, 2003) was administered as a measure of general intelligence. Impulsivity scores (Zi) of Salkind and Wright (1977) were used to analyze reflexivity-impulsivity and SATO. The results obtained indicate that (a) four performance groups can be identified: Fast-accurate, Slow-inaccurate, Impulsive, and Reflexive. The first two groups solve the task as a function of a competence variable and the last two as a function of a personality variable; (b) performance differences should be attributed to SATO; (c) SATO differs depending on sex and intelligence level.

Visuo-spatial processing in a dynamic and a static working memory paradigm in schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cocchi, Luca; Schenk, Françoise; Volken, Henri

2007-01-01

patients with schizophrenia and matched controls in a new working memory paradigm involving dynamic (the Ball Flight Task - BFT) or static (the Static Pattern Task - SPT) visual stimuli. In the BFT, the responses of the patients were apparently based on the retention of the last set of segments...... that visuo-spatial working memory can simply be dissociated into visual and spatial sub-components....... of the perceived trajectory, whereas control subjects relied on a more global strategy. We assume that the patients' performances are the result of a reduced capacity in chunking visual information since they relied mainly on the retention of the last set of segments. This assumption is confirmed by the poor...

Transmission grid security

CERN Document Server

Haarla, Liisa; Hirvonen, Ritva; Labeau, Pierre-Etienne

2011-01-01

In response to the growing importance of power system security and reliability, ""Transmission Grid Security"" proposes a systematic and probabilistic approach for transmission grid security analysis. The analysis presented uses probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) and takes into account the power system dynamics after severe faults. In the method shown in this book the power system states (stable, not stable, system breakdown, etc.) are connected with the substation reliability model. In this way it is possible to: estimate the system-wide consequences of grid faults; identify a chain of eve

Matching time and spatial scales of rapid solidification: dynamic TEM experiments coupled to CALPHAD-informed phase-field simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Perron, Aurelien; Roehling, John D.; Turchi, Patrice E. A.; Fattebert, Jean-Luc; McKeown, Joseph T.

2018-01-01

A combination of dynamic transmission electron microscopy (DTEM) experiments and CALPHAD-informed phase-field simulations was used to study rapid solidification in Cu-Ni thin-film alloys. Experiments—conducted in the DTEM—consisted of in situ laser melting and determination of the solidification kinetics by monitoring the solid-liquid interface and the overall microstructure evolution (time-resolved measurements) during the solidification process. Modelling of the Cu-Ni alloy microstructure evolution was based on a phase-field model that included realistic Gibbs energies and diffusion coefficients from the CALPHAD framework (thermodynamic and mobility databases). DTEM and post mortem experiments highlighted the formation of microsegregation-free columnar grains with interface velocities varying from ˜0.1 to ˜0.6 m s-1. After an ‘incubation’ time, the velocity of the planar solid-liquid interface accelerated until solidification was complete. In addition, a decrease of the temperature gradient induced a decrease in the interface velocity. The modelling strategy permitted the simulation (in 1D and 2D) of the solidification process from the initially diffusion-controlled to the nearly partitionless regimes. Finally, results of DTEM experiments and phase-field simulations (grain morphology, solute distribution, and solid-liquid interface velocity) were consistent at similar time (μs) and spatial scales (μm).

Big Pylons: Mixed signals for transmission. Spatial planning for energy distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritchie, Heather; Hardy, Maelíosa; Lloyd, M. Greg; McGreal, Stanley

2013-01-01

The effective delivery of a sustainable energy future raises many challenges in relation to energy distribution where a new understanding of spatial planning is needed in relation to energy production, consumption and storage. Understanding the emergent low carbon energy economy in terms of its production, distribution and consumption characteristics has prompted a deliberate spatial planning interest. This paper examines issues relating to spatial planning, regulation, political legitimacy and accountability in the current and future systems for energy distribution. In particular it examines the Beauly Denny public inquiry in Scotland as a case study in terms of demonstrating the changing state–market–civil relations in an energy transition context with differentiated values and interests. The case study highlights implications for the regulation in the public interest of highly contested spaces, places and development schemes, together with a synopsis of government structure and change that is influencing the future of spatial planning and energy distribution in particular. - Highlights: • We examine links between spatial planning and regulation of energy distribution. • We examine the Beauly Denny public inquiry in Scotland. • We highlight challenges surrounding the development of a resilient energy system. • We highlight links between spatial planning and infrastructural development

Intergenerational Transmission in a Bidirectional Context

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan De Mol

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Traditional approaches to the study of parent-child relationships view intergenerational transmission as a top-down phenomenon in which parents transfer their values, beliefs, and practices to their children. Furthermore, the focus of these unidirectional approaches regarding children's internalisation processes is on continuity or the transmission of similar values, beliefs, and practices from parents to children. Analogous unidirectional perspectives have also influenced the domain of family therapy. In this paper a cognitive-bidirectional and dialectical model of dynamics in parent-child relationships is discussed in which the focus is on continual creation of novel meanings and not just reproduction of old ones in the bidirectional transmission processes between parents and children. Parents and children are addressed as full and equally agents in their interdependent relationship, while these relational dynamics are embedded within culture. This cultural context complicates bidirectional transmission influences in the parent-child relationship as both parents and children are influenced by many other contexts. Further, current research in the domain of parent-child relationships and current concepts of intergenerational transmission in family therapy are reviewed from a bidirectional cognitive-dialectical perspective.

Host and pathogen ecology drive the seasonal dynamics of a fungal disease, white-nose syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Langwig, Kate E; Frick, Winifred F; Reynolds, Rick; Parise, Katy L; Drees, Kevin P; Hoyt, Joseph R; Cheng, Tina L; Kunz, Thomas H; Foster, Jeffrey T; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2015-01-22

Seasonal patterns in pathogen transmission can influence the impact of disease on populations and the speed of spatial spread. Increases in host contact rates or births drive seasonal epidemics in some systems, but other factors may occasionally override these influences. White-nose syndrome, caused by the emerging fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans, is spreading across North America and threatens several bat species with extinction. We examined patterns and drivers of seasonal transmission of P. destructans by measuring infection prevalence and pathogen loads in six bat species at 30 sites across the eastern United States. Bats became transiently infected in autumn, and transmission spiked in early winter when bats began hibernating. Nearly all bats in six species became infected by late winter when infection intensity peaked. In summer, despite high contact rates and a birth pulse, most bats cleared infections and prevalence dropped to zero. These data suggest the dominant driver of seasonal transmission dynamics was a change in host physiology, specifically hibernation. Our study is the first, to the best of our knowledge, to describe the seasonality of transmission in this emerging wildlife disease. The timing of infection and fungal growth resulted in maximal population impacts, but only moderate rates of spatial spread. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Design and dynamic simulation of a fixed pitch 56 kW wind turbine drive train with a continuously variable transmission

Science.gov (United States)

Gallo, C.; Kasuba, R.; Pintz, A.; Spring, J.

1986-01-01

The dynamic analysis of a horizontal axis fixed pitch wind turbine generator (WTG) rated at 56 kW is discussed. A mechanical Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT) was incorporated in the drive train to provide variable speed operation capability. One goal of the dynamic analysis was to determine if variable speed operation, by means of a mechanical CVT, is capable of capturing the transient power in the WTG/wind environment. Another goal was to determine the extent of power regulation possible with CVT operation.

Life history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations

OpenAIRE

Laver, Rj; Purwandana, D; Ariefiandy, A; Imansyah, J; Forsyth, D; Ciofi, C; Jessop, Ts

2012-01-01

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture st...

Volterra representation enables modeling of complex synaptic nonlinear dynamics in large-scale simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Eric Y; Bouteiller, Jean-Marie C; Song, Dong; Baudry, Michel; Berger, Theodore W

2015-01-01

Chemical synapses are comprised of a wide collection of intricate signaling pathways involving complex dynamics. These mechanisms are often reduced to simple spikes or exponential representations in order to enable computer simulations at higher spatial levels of complexity. However, these representations cannot capture important nonlinear dynamics found in synaptic transmission. Here, we propose an input-output (IO) synapse model capable of generating complex nonlinear dynamics while maintaining low computational complexity. This IO synapse model is an extension of a detailed mechanistic glutamatergic synapse model capable of capturing the input-output relationships of the mechanistic model using the Volterra functional power series. We demonstrate that the IO synapse model is able to successfully track the nonlinear dynamics of the synapse up to the third order with high accuracy. We also evaluate the accuracy of the IO synapse model at different input frequencies and compared its performance with that of kinetic models in compartmental neuron models. Our results demonstrate that the IO synapse model is capable of efficiently replicating complex nonlinear dynamics that were represented in the original mechanistic model and provide a method to replicate complex and diverse synaptic transmission within neuron network simulations.

Estimation of the dynamics and rate of transmission of classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs.

Science.gov (United States)

Hone, J; Pech, R; Yip, P

1992-04-01

Infectious diseases establish in a population of wildlife hosts when the number of secondary infections is greater than or equal to one. To estimate whether establishment will occur requires extensive experience or a mathematical model of disease dynamics and estimates of the parameters of the disease model. The latter approach is explored here. Methods for estimating key model parameters, the transmission coefficient (beta) and the basic reproductive rate (RDRS), are described using classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs as an example. The tentative results indicate that an acute infection of classical swine fever will establish in a small population of wild pigs. Data required for estimation of disease transmission rates are reviewed and sources of bias and alternative methods discussed. A comprehensive evaluation of the biases and efficiencies of the methods is needed.

Fluxon dynamics in long Josephson junctions in the presence of a temperature gradient or spatial nonuniformity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krasnov, V.M.; Oboznov, V.A.; Pedersen, Niels Falsig

1997-01-01

Fluxon dynamics in nonuniform Josephson junctions was studied both experimentally and theoretically. Two types of nonuniform junctions were considered: the first type had a nonuniform spatial distribution of critical and bias currents and the second had a temperature gradient applied along...... the junction. An analytical expression for the I-V curve in the presence of a temperature gradient or spatial nonuniformity was derived. It was shown that there is no static thermomagnetic Nernst effect due to Josephson fluxon motion despite the existence of a force pushing fluxons in the direction of smaller...

Spatial waves of advance with bistable dynamics: cytoplasmic and genetic analogues of Allee effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Barton, N H; Turelli, Michael

2011-09-01

Unlike unconditionally advantageous "Fisherian" variants that tend to spread throughout a species range once introduced anywhere, "bistable" variants, such as chromosome translocations, have two alternative stable frequencies, absence and (near) fixation. Analogous to populations with Allee effects, bistable variants tend to increase locally only once they become sufficiently common, and their spread depends on their rate of increase averaged over all frequencies. Several proposed manipulations of insect populations, such as using Wolbachia or "engineered underdominance" to suppress vector-borne diseases, produce bistable rather than Fisherian dynamics. We synthesize and extend theoretical analyses concerning three features of their spatial behavior: rate of spread, conditions to initiate spread from a localized introduction, and wave stopping caused by variation in population densities or dispersal rates. Unlike Fisherian variants, bistable variants tend to spread spatially only for particular parameter combinations and initial conditions. Wave initiation requires introduction over an extended region, while subsequent spatial spread is slower than for Fisherian waves and can easily be halted by local spatial inhomogeneities. We present several new results, including robust sufficient conditions to initiate (and stop) spread, using a one-parameter cubic approximation applicable to several models. The results have both basic and applied implications.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Value of Nature-Based Recreation, Estimated via Social Media.

Science.gov (United States)

Sonter, Laura J; Watson, Keri B; Wood, Spencer A; Ricketts, Taylor H

2016-01-01

Conserved lands provide multiple ecosystem services, including opportunities for nature-based recreation. Managing this service requires understanding the landscape attributes underpinning its provision, and how changes in land management affect its contribution to human wellbeing over time. However, evidence from both spatially explicit and temporally dynamic analyses is scarce, often due to data limitations. In this study, we investigated nature-based recreation within conserved lands in Vermont, USA. We used geotagged photographs uploaded to the photo-sharing website Flickr to quantify visits by in-state and out-of-state visitors, and we multiplied visits by mean trip expenditures to show that conserved lands contributed US $1.8 billion (US $0.18-20.2 at 95% confidence) to Vermont's tourism industry between 2007 and 2014. We found eight landscape attributes explained the pattern of visits to conserved lands; visits were higher in larger conserved lands, with less forest cover, greater trail density and more opportunities for snow sports. Some of these attributes differed from those found in other locations, but all aligned with our understanding of recreation in Vermont. We also found that using temporally static models to inform conservation decisions may have perverse outcomes for nature-based recreation. For example, static models suggest conserved land with less forest cover receive more visits, but temporally dynamic models suggest clearing forests decreases, rather than increases, visits to these sites. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding both the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services for conservation decision-making.

The Genealogical Population Dynamics of HIV-1 in a Large Transmission Chain: Bridging within and among Host Evolutionary Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Vrancken, Bram; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Drummond, Alexei; Baele, Guy; Derdelinckx, Inge; Van Wijngaerden, Eric; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Van Laethem, Kristel; Lemey, Philippe

2014-01-01

Transmission lies at the interface of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) evolution within and among hosts and separates distinct selective pressures that impose differences in both the mode of diversification and the tempo of evolution. In the absence of comprehensive direct comparative analyses of the evolutionary processes at different biological scales, our understanding of how fast within-host HIV-1 evolutionary rates translate to lower rates at the between host level remains incomplete. Here, we address this by analyzing pol and env data from a large HIV-1 subtype C transmission chain for which both the timing and the direction is known for most transmission events. To this purpose, we develop a new transmission model in a Bayesian genealogical inference framework and demonstrate how to constrain the viral evolutionary history to be compatible with the transmission history while simultaneously inferring the within-host evolutionary and population dynamics. We show that accommodating a transmission bottleneck affords the best fit our data, but the sparse within-host HIV-1 sampling prevents accurate quantification of the concomitant loss in genetic diversity. We draw inference under the transmission model to estimate HIV-1 evolutionary rates among epidemiologically-related patients and demonstrate that they lie in between fast intra-host rates and lower rates among epidemiologically unrelated individuals infected with HIV subtype C. Using a new molecular clock approach, we quantify and find support for a lower evolutionary rate along branches that accommodate a transmission event or branches that represent the entire backbone of transmitted lineages in our transmission history. Finally, we recover the rate differences at the different biological scales for both synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates, which is only compatible with the ‘store and retrieve’ hypothesis positing that viruses stored early in latently infected cells

Characterising the spatial dynamics of sympatric Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus populations in the Philippines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Duncombe

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Entomological surveillance and control are essential to the management of dengue fever (DF. Hence, understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of DF vectors, Aedes (Stegomyia aegypti (L. and Ae. (Stegomyia albopictus (Skuse, is paramount. In the Philippines, resources are limited and entomological surveillance and control are generally commenced during epidemics, when transmission is difficult to control. Recent improvements in spatial epidemiological tools and methods offer opportunities to explore more efficient DF surveillance and control solutions: however, there are few examples in the literature from resource-poor settings. The objectives of this study were to: (i explore spatial patterns of Aedes populations and (ii predict areas of high and low vector density to inform DF control in San Jose village, Muntinlupa city, Philippines. Fortnightly, adult female Aedes mosquitoes were collected from 50 double-sticky ovitraps (SOs located in San Jose village for the period June-November 2011. Spatial clustering analysis was performed to identify high and low density clusters of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed by examination of semivariograms, and ordinary kriging was undertaken to create a smoothed surface of predicted vector density in the study area. Our results show that both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were present in San Jose village during the study period. However, one Aedes species was dominant in a given geographic area at a time, suggesting differing habitat preferences and interspecies competition between vectors. Density maps provide information to direct entomological control activities and advocate the development of geographically enhanced surveillance and control systems to improve DF management in the Philippines.

Investigation of hydraulic transmission noise sources

Science.gov (United States)

Klop, Richard J.

Advanced hydrostatic transmissions and hydraulic hybrids show potential in new market segments such as commercial vehicles and passenger cars. Such new applications regard low noise generation as a high priority, thus, demanding new quiet hydrostatic transmission designs. In this thesis, the aim is to investigate noise sources of hydrostatic transmissions to discover strategies for designing compact and quiet solutions. A model has been developed to capture the interaction of a pump and motor working in a hydrostatic transmission and to predict overall noise sources. This model allows a designer to compare noise sources for various configurations and to design compact and inherently quiet solutions. The model describes dynamics of the system by coupling lumped parameter pump and motor models with a one-dimensional unsteady compressible transmission line model. The model has been verified with dynamic pressure measurements in the line over a wide operating range for several system structures. Simulation studies were performed illustrating sensitivities of several design variables and the potential of the model to design transmissions with minimal noise sources. A semi-anechoic chamber has been designed and constructed suitable for sound intensity measurements that can be used to derive sound power. Measurements proved the potential to reduce audible noise by predicting and reducing both noise sources. Sound power measurements were conducted on a series hybrid transmission test bench to validate the model and compare predicted noise sources with sound power.

How Spatial Abilities and Dynamic Visualizations Interplay When Learning Functional Anatomy with 3D Anatomical Models

Science.gov (United States)

Berney, Sandra; Bétrancourt, Mireille; Molinari, Gaëlle; Hoyek, Nady

2015-01-01

The emergence of dynamic visualizations of three-dimensional (3D) models in anatomy curricula may be an adequate solution for spatial difficulties encountered with traditional static learning, as they provide direct visualization of change throughout the viewpoints. However, little research has explored the interplay between learning material…

Implications of the spatial dynamics of fire spread for the bistability of savanna and forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Schertzer, E; Staver, A C; Levin, S A

2015-01-01

The role of fire in expanding the global distribution of savanna is well recognized. Empirical observations and modeling suggest that fire spread has a threshold response to fuel-layer continuity, which sets up a positive feedback that maintains savanna-forest bistability. However, modeling has so far failed to examine fire spread as a spatial process that interacts with vegetation. Here, we use simple, well-supported assumptions about fire spread as an infection process and its effects on trees to ask whether spatial dynamics qualitatively change the potential for savanna-forest bistability. We show that the spatial effects of fire spread are the fundamental reason that bistability is possible: because fire spread is an infection process, it exhibits a threshold response to fuel continuity followed by a rapid increase in fire size. Other ecological processes affecting fire spread may also contribute including temporal variability in demography or fire spread. Finally, including the potential for spatial aggregation increases the potential both for savanna-forest bistability and for savanna and forest to coexist in a landscape mosaic.

Transmission of vibration through gloves: effects of contact area.

Science.gov (United States)

Md Rezali, Khairil Anas; Griffin, Michael J

2017-01-01

For three samples of material (12.5, 25.0 and 37.5 mm diameter) from each of three gloves, the dynamic stiffnesses and the vibration transmissibilities of the materials (to both the palm of the hand and the thenar eminence) were measured at frequencies from 10 to 300 Hz. Additional measurements showed the apparent masses of the hand at the palm and the thenar eminence were independent of contact area at frequencies less than about 40 Hz, but increased with increasing area at higher frequencies. The stiffness and damping of the glove materials increased with increasing area. These changes caused material transmissibilities to the hand to increase with increasing area. It is concluded that the size of the area of contact has a large influence on the transmission of vibration through a glove to the hand. The area of contact should be well-defined and controlled when evaluating the transmission of vibration through gloves. Practitioner Summary: The transmission of vibration through gloves depends on both the dynamic stiffness of glove material and the dynamic response of the hand. Both of these depend on the size of the contact area between a glove material and the hand, which should be taken into account when assessing glove transmissibility.

Inferring the Spatio-temporal Patterns of Dengue Transmission from Surveillance Data in Guangzhou, China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guanghu Zhu

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Dengue is a serious vector-borne disease, and incidence rates have significantly increased during the past few years, particularly in 2014 in Guangzhou. The current situation is more complicated, due to various factors such as climate warming, urbanization, population increase, and human mobility. The purpose of this study is to detect dengue transmission patterns and identify the disease dispersion dynamics in Guangzhou, China.We conducted surveys in 12 districts of Guangzhou, and collected daily data of Breteau index (BI and reported cases between September and November 2014 from the public health authority reports. Based on the available data and the Ross-Macdonald theory, we propose a dengue transmission model that systematically integrates entomologic, demographic, and environmental information. In this model, we use (1 BI data and geographic variables to evaluate the spatial heterogeneities of Aedes mosquitoes, (2 a radiation model to simulate the daily mobility of humans, and (3 a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method to estimate the model parameters.By implementing our proposed model, we can (1 estimate the incidence rates of dengue, and trace the infection time and locations, (2 assess risk factors and evaluate the infection threat in a city, and (3 evaluate the primary diffusion process in different districts. From the results, we can see that dengue infections exhibited a spatial and temporal variation during 2014 in Guangzhou. We find that urbanization, vector activities, and human behavior play significant roles in shaping the dengue outbreak and the patterns of its spread. This study offers useful information on dengue dynamics, which can help policy makers improve control and prevention measures.

Optical spatial differentiator based on subwavelength high-contrast gratings

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Zhewei; Si, Jiangnan; Yu, Xuanyi; Deng, Xiaoxu

2018-04-01

An optical spatial differentiator based on subwavelength high-contrast gratings (HCGs) is proposed experimentally. The spatial differentiation property of the subwavelength HCG is analyzed by calculating its spatial spectral transfer function based on the periodic waveguide theory. By employing the FDTD solutions, the performance of the subwavelength HCG spatial differentiator was investigated numerically. The subwavelength HCG differentiator with the thickness at the nanoscale was fabricated on the quartz substrate by electron beam lithography and Bosch deep silicon etching. Observed under an optical microscope with a CCD camera, the spatial differentiation of the incident field profile was obtained by the subwavelength HCG differentiator in transmission without Fourier lens. By projecting the images of slits, letter "X," and a cross on the subwavelength HCG differentiator, edge detections of images were obtained in transmission. With the nanoscale HCG structure and simple optical implementation, the proposed optical spatial differentiator provides the prospects for applications in optical computing systems and parallel data processing.

Influence of breaking the symmetry between disease transmission and information propagation networks on stepwise decisions concerning vaccination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukuda, Eriko; Tanimoto, Jun; Akimoto, Mitsuhiro

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We construct a model using epidemiological and vaccination dynamics. • We study effects of information propagation networks on disease propagation. • Information propagation networks affect the spatial structures of vaccinators. • Disease transmission network affects the information propagation network results. • Vaccination cost does not alter the effects of network-topology symmetry breaking. - Abstract: In previous epidemiological studies that address adaptive vaccination decisions, individuals generally act within a single network, which models the population structure. However, in reality, people are typically members of multiplex networks, which have various community structures. For example, a disease transmission network, which directly transmits infectious diseases, does not necessarily correspond with an information propagation network, in which individuals directly or indirectly exchange information concerning health conditions and vaccination strategies. The latter network may also be used for strategic interaction (strategy adaptation) concerning vaccination. Therefore, in order to reflect this feature, we consider the vaccination dynamics of structured populations whose members simultaneously belong to two types of networks: disease transmission and information propagation. Applying intensive numerical calculations, we determine that if the disease transmission network is modeled using a regular graph, such as a lattice population or random regular graph containing individuals of equivalent degrees, individuals should base their vaccination decisions on a different type of network. However, if the disease transmission network is a degree-heterogeneous graph, such as the Barabási–Albert scale-free network, which has a heterogeneous degree according to power low, then using the same network for information propagation more effectively prevents the spread of epidemics. Furthermore, our conclusions are unaffected by the relative

Cortico-cortical communication dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Per E Roland

2014-05-01

Full Text Available IIn principle, cortico-cortical communication dynamics is simple: neurons in one cortical area communicate by sending action potentials that release glutamate and excite their target neurons in other cortical areas. In practice, knowledge about cortico-cortical communication dynamics is minute. One reason is that no current technique can capture the fast spatio-temporal cortico-cortical evolution of action potential transmission and membrane conductances with sufficient spatial resolution. A combination of optogenetics and monosynaptic tracing with virus can reveal the spatio-temporal cortico-cortical dynamics of specific neurons and their targets, but does not reveal how the dynamics evolves under natural conditions. Spontaneous ongoing action potentials also spread across cortical areas and are difficult to separate from structured evoked and intrinsic brain activity such as thinking. At a certain state of evolution, the dynamics may engage larger populations of neurons to drive the brain to decisions, percepts and behaviors. For example, successfully evolving dynamics to sensory transients can appear at the mesoscopic scale revealing how the transient is perceived. As a consequence of these methodological and conceptual difficulties, studies in this field comprise a wide range of computational models, large-scale measurements (e.g., by MEG, EEG, and a combination of invasive measurements in animal experiments. Further obstacles and challenges of studying cortico-cortical communication dynamics are outlined in this critical review.

Investigating the impact of unanticipated market and construction delays on the development of a meshed HVDC grid using dynamic transmission planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shariat Torbaghan, S.; Gibescu, M.; Rawn, B.G.; Müller, H.; Roggenkamp, M.; vd Meijden, M.A.M.M.

2015-01-01

This study presents a market-based dynamic transmission planning framework for the construction of a meshed offshore voltage source converter-high voltage direct current (VSC-HVDC) grid. Such a grid is foreseen for integrating offshore wind and electricity trade functions among the North Sea

The spatial scale for cisco recruitment dynamics in Lake Superior during 1978-2007

Science.gov (United States)

Rook, Benjamin J.; Hansen, Michael J.; Gorman, Owen T.

2012-01-01

The cisco Coregonus artedi was once the most abundant fish species in the Great Lakes, but currently cisco populations are greatly reduced and management agencies are attempting to restore the species throughout the basin. To increase understanding of the spatial scale at which density‐independent and density‐dependent factors influence cisco recruitment dynamics in the Great Lakes, we used a Ricker stock–recruitment model to identify and quantify the appropriate spatial scale for modeling age‐1 cisco recruitment dynamics in Lake Superior. We found that the recruitment variation of ciscoes in Lake Superior was best described by a five‐parameter regional model with separate stock–recruitment relationships for the western, southern, eastern, and northern regions. The spatial scale for modeling was about 260 km (range = 230–290 km). We also found that the density‐independent recruitment rate and the rate of compensatory density dependence varied among regions at different rates. The density‐independent recruitment rate was constant among regions (3.6 age‐1 recruits/spawner), whereas the rate of compensatory density dependence varied 16‐fold among regions (range = −0.2 to −2.9/spawner). Finally, we found that peak recruitment and the spawning stock size that produced peak recruitment varied among regions. Both peak recruitment (0.5–7.1 age‐1 recruits/ha) and the spawning stock size that produced peak recruitment (0.3–5.3 spawners/ha) varied 16‐fold among regions. Our findings support the hypothesis that the factors driving cisco recruitment operate within four different regions of Lake Superior, suggest that large‐scale abiotic factors are more important than small‐scale biotic factors in influencing cisco recruitment, and suggest that fishery managers throughout Lake Superior and the entire Great Lakes basin should address cisco restoration and management efforts on a regional scale in each lake.

Decarbonization scenarios for the EU and MENA power system: Considering spatial distribution and short term dynamics of renewable generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haller, Markus; Ludig, Sylvie; Bauer, Nico

2012-01-01

We use the multi-scale power system model LIMES-EU + to explore coordinated long term expansion pathways for Renewable Energy (RE) generation, long distance transmission and storage capacities for the power sector of the Europe and Middle East/North Africa (MENA) regions that lead to a low emission power system. We show that ambitious emission reduction targets can be achieved at moderate costs by a nearly complete switch to RE sources until 2050, if transmission and storage capacities are expanded adequately. Limiting transmission capacities to current levels leads to higher storage requirements, higher curtailments, and to an increase in temporal and spatial electricity price variations. Results show an escalation of electricity prices if emission reductions exceed a critical value. Adequate expansion of transmission and storage capacities shift this threshold from 70% to 90% emission reductions in 2050 relative to 2010. - Highlights: ► We present an EU+MENA power system model that considers long term investments and integration of renewables. ► For low emission targets, renewable integration issues lead to escalating electricity prices. ► The feasibility frontier can be pushed by adequate transmission and storage investments. ► The transformation from wind/fossil to wind/solar regime changes integration requirements. ► Low emission targets can be reached without significant interconnections between EU and MENA regions.

Dynamics of soft Nanomaterials captured by transmission electron microscopy in liquid water

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Proetto, Maria T.; Rush, Anthony M.; Chien, Miao-Ping; Abellan Baeza, Patricia; Patterson, Joseph P.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Olson, Norman H.; Moore, Curtis E.; Rheingold, Arnold L.; Andolina, Christopher; Millstone, Jill; Howell, Stephen B.; Browning, Nigel D.; Evans, James E.; Gianneschi, Nathan C.

2014-01-14

In this paper we present in situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) of soft, synthetic nanoparticles with a comparative analysis using conventional TEM methods. This comparison is made with the simple aim of describing what is an unprecedented example of in situ imaging by TEM. However, we contend the technique will quickly become essential in the characterization of analogous systems, especially where dynamics are of interest in the solvated state. In this case, particles were studied which were obtained from the direct polymerization of an oxaliplatin analog, designed for an ongoing program in novel chemotherapeutic delivery systems. The resulting nanoparticles provided sufficient contrast for facile imaging in situ, and point toward key design parameters that enable this new characterization approach for organic nanomaterials. We describe the preparation of the synthetic micellar nanoparticles to- gether with their characterization in liquid water.

Spatio-temporal transmission patterns of black-band disease in a coral community.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Assaf Zvuloni

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Transmission mechanisms of black-band disease (BBD in coral reefs are poorly understood, although this disease is considered to be one of the most widespread and destructive coral infectious diseases. The major objective of this study was to assess transmission mechanisms of BBD in the field based on the spatio-temporal patterns of the disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 3,175 susceptible and infected corals were mapped over an area of 10x10 m in Eilat (northern Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea and the distribution of the disease was examined monthly throughout almost two full disease cycles (June 2006-December 2007. Spatial and spatio-temporal analyses were applied to infer the transmission pattern of the disease and to calculate key epidemiological parameters such as (basic reproduction number. We show that the prevalence of the disease is strongly associated with high water temperature. When water temperatures rise and disease prevalence increases, infected corals exhibit aggregated distributions on small spatial scales of up to 1.9 m. Additionally, newly-infected corals clearly appear in proximity to existing infected corals and in a few cases in direct contact with them. We also present and test a model of water-borne infection, indicating that the likelihood of a susceptible coral becoming infected is defined by its spatial location and by the relative spatial distribution of nearby infected corals found in the site. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide evidence that local transmission, but not necessarily by direct contact, is likely to be an important factor in the spread of the disease over the tested spatial scale. In the absence of potential disease vectors with limited mobility (e.g., snails, fireworms in the studied site, water-borne infection is likely to be a significant transmission mechanism of BBD. Our suggested model of water-borne transmission supports this hypothesis. The spatio-temporal analysis also points

From complex spatial dynamics to simple Markov chain models: do predators and prey leave footprints?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nachman, Gøsta Støger; Borregaard, Michael Krabbe

2010-01-01

to another, are then depicted in a state transition diagram, constituting the "footprints" of the underlying population dynamics. We investigate to what extent changes in the population processes modeled in the complex simulation (i.e. the predator's functional response and the dispersal rates of both......In this paper we present a concept for using presence-absence data to recover information on the population dynamics of predator-prey systems. We use a highly complex and spatially explicit simulation model of a predator-prey mite system to generate simple presence-absence data: the number...... of transition probabilities on state variables, and combine this information in a Markov chain transition matrix model. Finally, we use this extended model to predict the long-term dynamics of the system and to reveal its asymptotic steady state properties....

Oscillatory Energy Exchange Between Waves Coupled by a Dynamic Artificial Crystal

OpenAIRE

Karenowska, Alexy D.; Tiberkevich, Vasil S.; Chumak, Andrii V.; Serga, Alexander A.; Gregg, John F.; Slavin, Andrei N.; Hillebrands, Burkard

2011-01-01

We describe a general mechanism of controllable energy exchange between waves propagating in a dynamic artificial crystal. We show that if a spatial periodicity is temporarily imposed on the transmission properties of a wave-carrying medium whilst a wave is inside, this wave is coupled to a secondary counter-propagating wave and energy oscillates between the two. The oscillation frequency is determined by the width of the spectral band gap created by the periodicity and the frequency differen...

Hidden Markov Model of atomic quantum jump dynamics in an optically probed cavity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gammelmark, S.; Molmer, K.; Alt, W.

2014-01-01

We analyze the quantum jumps of an atom interacting with a cavity field. The strong atom- field interaction makes the cavity transmission depend on the time dependent atomic state, and we present a Hidden Markov Model description of the atomic state dynamics which is conditioned in a Bayesian...... manner on the detected signal. We suggest that small variations in the observed signal may be due to spatial motion of the atom within the cavity, and we represent the atomic system by a number of hidden states to account for both the small variations and the internal state jump dynamics. In our theory...

A systematic review of transmission dynamic studies of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in non-hospital residential facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwok, Kin On; Read, Jonathan M; Tang, Arthur; Chen, Hong; Riley, Steven; Kam, Kai Man

2018-04-18

Non-hospital residential facilities are important reservoirs for MRSA transmission. However, conclusions and public health implications drawn from the many mathematical models depicting nosocomial MRSA transmission may not be applicable to these settings. Therefore, we reviewed the MRSA transmission dynamics studies in defined non-hospital residential facilities to: (1) provide an overview of basic epidemiology which has been addressed; (2) identify future research direction; and (3) improve future model implementation. A review was conducted by searching related keywords in PUBMED without time restriction as well as internet searches via Google search engine. We included only articles describing the epidemiological transmission pathways of MRSA/community-associated MRSA within and between defined non-hospital residential settings. Among the 10 included articles, nursing homes (NHs) and correctional facilities (CFs) were two settings considered most frequently. Importation of colonized residents was a plausible reason for MRSA outbreaks in NHs, where MRSA was endemic without strict infection control interventions. The importance of NHs over hospitals in increasing nosocomial MRSA prevalence was highlighted. Suggested interventions in NHs included: appropriate staffing level, screening and decolonizing, and hand hygiene. On the other hand, the small population amongst inmates in CFs has no effect on MRSA community transmission. Included models ranged from system-level compartmental models to agent-based models. There was no consensus over the course of disease progression in these models, which were mainly featured with NH residents /CF inmates/ hospital patients as transmission pathways. Some parameters used by these models were outdated or unfit. Importance of NHs has been highlighted from these current studies addressing scattered aspects of MRSA epidemiology. However, the wide variety of non-hospital residential settings suggest that more work is needed before

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Value of Nature-Based Recreation, Estimated via Social Media

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Keri B.; Wood, Spencer A.; Ricketts, Taylor H.

2016-01-01

Conserved lands provide multiple ecosystem services, including opportunities for nature-based recreation. Managing this service requires understanding the landscape attributes underpinning its provision, and how changes in land management affect its contribution to human wellbeing over time. However, evidence from both spatially explicit and temporally dynamic analyses is scarce, often due to data limitations. In this study, we investigated nature-based recreation within conserved lands in Vermont, USA. We used geotagged photographs uploaded to the photo-sharing website Flickr to quantify visits by in-state and out-of-state visitors, and we multiplied visits by mean trip expenditures to show that conserved lands contributed US $1.8 billion (US $0.18–20.2 at 95% confidence) to Vermont’s tourism industry between 2007 and 2014. We found eight landscape attributes explained the pattern of visits to conserved lands; visits were higher in larger conserved lands, with less forest cover, greater trail density and more opportunities for snow sports. Some of these attributes differed from those found in other locations, but all aligned with our understanding of recreation in Vermont. We also found that using temporally static models to inform conservation decisions may have perverse outcomes for nature-based recreation. For example, static models suggest conserved land with less forest cover receive more visits, but temporally dynamic models suggest clearing forests decreases, rather than increases, visits to these sites. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding both the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services for conservation decision-making. PMID:27611325

Long-term effects of penicillin resistance and fitness cost on pneumococcal transmission dynamics in a developed setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diana Tilevik

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Background: The increasing prevalence of penicillin non-susceptible pneumococci (PNSP throughout the world threatens successful treatment of infections caused by this important bacterial pathogen. The rate at which PNSP clones spread in the community is thought to mainly be determined by two key determinants; the volume of penicillin use and the magnitude of the fitness cost in the absence of treatment. The aim of the study was to determine the impacts of penicillin consumption and fitness cost on pneumococcal transmission dynamics in a developed country setting. Methods: An individual-based network model based on real-life demographic data was constructed and applied in a developed country setting (Sweden. A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups, i.e. families, day care groups, school classes, and other close contacts, was considered to properly assess the transmission dynamics for susceptible and PNSP clones. Several scenarios were simulated and model outcomes were statistically analysed. Results: Model simulations predicted that with an outpatient penicillin use corresponding to the sales in Sweden 2010 (118 recipes per 1,000 inhabitants per year, the magnitude of a fitness cost for resistance must be at least 5% to offset the advantage of penicillin resistance. Moreover, even if there is a fitness cost associated with penicillin resistance, a considerable reduction of penicillin usage appears to be required to significantly decrease the incidence of PNSP in a community. Conclusion: The frequency of PNSP clones is hard to reverse by simply reducing the penicillin consumption even if there is a biological cost associated with resistance. However, because penicillin usage does promote further spread of PNSP clones, it is important to keep down penicillin consumption considering future resistance problems.

Hotspots of Community Change: Temporal Dynamics Are Spatially Variable in Understory Plant Composition of a California Oak Woodland.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erica N Spotswood

Full Text Available Community response to external drivers such climate and disturbance can lead to fluctuations in community composition, or to directional change. Temporal dynamics can be influenced by a combination of drivers operating at multiple spatial scales, including external landscape scale drivers, local abiotic conditions, and local species pools. We hypothesized that spatial variation in these factors can create heterogeneity in temporal dynamics within landscapes. We used understory plant species composition from an 11 year dataset from a California oak woodland to compare plots where disturbance was experimentally manipulated with the removal of livestock grazing and a prescribed burn. We quantified three properties of temporal variation: compositional change (reflecting the appearance and disappearance of species, temporal fluctuation, and directional change. Directional change was related most strongly to disturbance type, and was highest at plots where grazing was removed during the study. Temporal fluctuations, compositional change, and directional change were all related to intrinsic abiotic factors, suggesting that some locations are more responsive to external drivers than others. Temporal fluctuations and compositional change were linked to local functional composition, indicating that environmental filters can create subsets of the local species pool that do not respond in the same way to external drivers. Temporal dynamics are often assumed to be relatively static at the landscape scale, provided disturbance and climate are continuous. This study shows that local and landscape scale factors jointly influence temporal dynamics creating hotspots that are particularly responsive to climate and disturbance. Thus, adequate predictions of response to disturbance or to changing climate will only be achieved by considering how factors at multiple spatial scales influence community resilience and recovery.

Hotspots of Community Change: Temporal Dynamics Are Spatially Variable in Understory Plant Composition of a California Oak Woodland.

Science.gov (United States)

Spotswood, Erica N; Bartolome, James W; Allen-Diaz, Barbara

2015-01-01

Community response to external drivers such climate and disturbance can lead to fluctuations in community composition, or to directional change. Temporal dynamics can be influenced by a combination of drivers operating at multiple spatial scales, including external landscape scale drivers, local abiotic conditions, and local species pools. We hypothesized that spatial variation in these factors can create heterogeneity in temporal dynamics within landscapes. We used understory plant species composition from an 11 year dataset from a California oak woodland to compare plots where disturbance was experimentally manipulated with the removal of livestock grazing and a prescribed burn. We quantified three properties of temporal variation: compositional change (reflecting the appearance and disappearance of species), temporal fluctuation, and directional change. Directional change was related most strongly to disturbance type, and was highest at plots where grazing was removed during the study. Temporal fluctuations, compositional change, and directional change were all related to intrinsic abiotic factors, suggesting that some locations are more responsive to external drivers than others. Temporal fluctuations and compositional change were linked to local functional composition, indicating that environmental filters can create subsets of the local species pool that do not respond in the same way to external drivers. Temporal dynamics are often assumed to be relatively static at the landscape scale, provided disturbance and climate are continuous. This study shows that local and landscape scale factors jointly influence temporal dynamics creating hotspots that are particularly responsive to climate and disturbance. Thus, adequate predictions of response to disturbance or to changing climate will only be achieved by considering how factors at multiple spatial scales influence community resilience and recovery.

Spatial Analysis of Thermal Aging of Overhead Transmission Conductors

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Musílek, P.; Heckenbergerová, Jana; Bhuiyan, M.M.I.

2012-01-01

Roč. 27, č. 3 (2012), s. 1196-1204 ISSN 0885-8977 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) M100300904 Source of funding: V - iné verejné zdroje Keywords : aluminium conductor steel reinforced (ACSR) conductor * hot spot * loss of tensile strength * numerical weather prediction * power transmission lines * thermal aging Subject RIV: JE - Non-nuclear Energetics, Energy Consumption ; Use Impact factor: 1.519, year: 2012

Dynamic quality of service model for improving performance of multimedia real-time transmission in industrial networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Gopalakrishnan, Ravichandran C; Karunakaran, Manivannan

2014-01-01

Nowadays, quality of service (QoS) is very popular in various research areas like distributed systems, multimedia real-time applications and networking. The requirements of these systems are to satisfy reliability, uptime, security constraints and throughput as well as application specific requirements. The real-time multimedia applications are commonly distributed over the network and meet various time constraints across networks without creating any intervention over control flows. In particular, video compressors make variable bit-rate streams that mismatch the constant-bit-rate channels typically provided by classical real-time protocols, severely reducing the efficiency of network utilization. Thus, it is necessary to enlarge the communication bandwidth to transfer the compressed multimedia streams using Flexible Time Triggered- Enhanced Switched Ethernet (FTT-ESE) protocol. FTT-ESE provides automation to calculate the compression level and change the bandwidth of the stream. This paper focuses on low-latency multimedia transmission over Ethernet with dynamic quality-of-service (QoS) management. This proposed framework deals with a dynamic QoS for multimedia transmission over Ethernet with FTT-ESE protocol. This paper also presents distinct QoS metrics based both on the image quality and network features. Some experiments with recorded and live video streams show the advantages of the proposed framework. To validate the solution we have designed and implemented a simulator based on the Matlab/Simulink, which is a tool to evaluate different network architecture using Simulink blocks.

Spatially-resolved studies of charge-density-wave phase slip and dynamics in NbSe3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemay, S.G.; Adelman, T.L.; Zaitsev-Zotov, S.V.; Thorne, R.E.

1999-01-01

We review our spatially and temporally resolved studies of charge-density-wave (CDW) phase slip and dynamics in NbSe 3 . Measurements of the steady-state CDW current, phase slip and strain profiles and their transient evolutions in response to a change in current direction provide a detailed picture of the interplay between elastic deformations and plasticity in this material. (orig.)

[Dynamic evolution of landscape spatial pattern in Taihu Lake basin, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Fang; Xie, Xiao Ping; Chen, Zhi Cong

2017-11-01

Based on the land-use satellite image datasets of 2000, 2010 and 2015, the landscape index, dynamic change model, landscape transfer matrix and CLUE-S model were integrated to analyze the dynamic evolution of the landscape spatial pattern of Taihu Lake basin. The results showed that the landscape type of the basin was dominated by cultivated land and construction land, and the degree of landscape fragmentation was strengthened from 2000 to 2015, and the distribution showed a uniform trend. From the point of transfer dynamic change, the cultivated land and construction land changed significantly, which was reduced by 6761 km 2 (2.1%) and increased by 6615.33 km 2 (8.4%), respectively. From the landscape transfer, it could be seen that the main change direction of the cultivated land reduction was the construction land, and the cultivated land with 7866.30 km 2 was converted into construction land, accounting for 91.6% of the cultivated land change, and the contribution to the construction land was 96.5%. The trend of dynamic changes of cultivated and construction land in the counties and cities was the same as that of the whole Taihu Lake basin. For Shanghai Central Urban, as well as Pudong District, Lin'an City, Baoshan District, Minhang District, Jiading District and Changzhou City, the area of the cultivated land and construction land changed more prominently. However, compared with the CLUE-S model for the landscape pattern change in 2030, the change of cultivated and construction lands would be the largest in the natural development scenario. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of grassland would increase and the dynamic degree would reach 54.5%. Under the situation of cultivated land protection, the conversion of cultivated land to construction land would be decreased.

A spatial model of mosquito host-seeking behavior.

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Bree Cummins

Full Text Available Mosquito host-seeking behavior and heterogeneity in host distribution are important factors in predicting the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne infections such as dengue fever, malaria, chikungunya, and West Nile virus. We develop and analyze a new mathematical model to describe the effect of spatial heterogeneity on the contact rate between mosquito vectors and hosts. The model includes odor plumes generated by spatially distributed hosts, wind velocity, and mosquito behavior based on both the prevailing wind and the odor plume. On a spatial scale of meters and a time scale of minutes, we compare the effectiveness of different plume-finding and plume-tracking strategies that mosquitoes could use to locate a host. The results show that two different models of chemotaxis are capable of producing comparable results given appropriate parameter choices and that host finding is optimized by a strategy of flying across the wind until the odor plume is intercepted. We also assess the impact of changing the level of host aggregation on mosquito host-finding success near the end of the host-seeking flight. When clusters of hosts are more tightly associated on smaller patches, the odor plume is narrower and the biting rate per host is decreased. For two host groups of unequal number but equal spatial density, the biting rate per host is lower in the group with more individuals, indicative of an attack abatement effect of host aggregation. We discuss how this approach could assist parameter choices in compartmental models that do not explicitly model the spatial arrangement of individuals and how the model could address larger spatial scales and other probability models for mosquito behavior, such as Lévy distributions.

Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Charu, Vivek; Zeger, Scott; Gog, Julia

2017-01-01

Seasonal influenza epidemics offer unique opportunities to study the invasion and re-invasion waves of a pathogen in a partially immune population. Detailed patterns of spread remain elusive, however, due to lack of granular disease data. Here we model high-volume city-level medical claims data...... and human mobility proxies to explore the drivers of influenza spread in the US during 2002–2010. Although the speed and pathways of spread varied across seasons, seven of eight epidemics likely originated in the Southern US. Each epidemic was associated with 1–5 early long-range transmission events, half...... of which sparked onward transmission. Gravity model estimates indicate a sharp decay in influenza transmission with the distance between infectious and susceptible cities, consistent with spread dominated by work commutes rather than air traffic. Two early-onset seasons associated with antigenic novelty...

Relevance of indirect transmission for wildlife disease surveillance

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Martin Lange

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Epidemiological models of infectious diseases are essential tools in support of risk assessment, surveillance design and contingency planning in public and animal health. Direct pathogen transmission from host to host is an essential process of each host-pathogen system and respective epidemiological modelling concepts. It is widely accepted that numerous diseases involve indirect transmission through pathogens shed by infectious hosts to their environment. However, epidemiological models largely do not represent pathogen persistence outside the host explicitly. We hypothesize that this simplification might bias management-related model predictions for disease agents that can persist outside their host for a certain time span. We adapted an individual-based, spatially explicit epidemiological model that can mimic both transmission processes. One version explicitly simulated indirect pathogen transmission through a contaminated environment. A second version simulated direct host-to-host transmission only. We aligned the model variants by the transmission potential per infectious host (i.e. basic reproductive number R0 and the spatial transmission kernel of the infection to allow unbiased comparison of predictions. The quantitative model results are provided for the example of surveillance plans for early detection of foot-and-mouth disease in wild boar, a social host.We applied systematic sampling strategies on the serological status of randomly selected host individuals in both models. We compared between the model variants the time to detection and the area affected prior to detection, measures that strongly influence mitigation costs. Moreover, the ideal sampling strategy to detect the infection in a given time frame was compared between both models.We found the simplified, direct transmission model to underestimate necessary sample size by up to one order of magnitude, but to overestimate the area put under control measures. Thus, the model

Seasonal and Spatial Environmental Influence on Opisthorchis viverrini Intermediate Hosts, Abundance, and Distribution: Insights on Transmission Dynamics and Sustainable Control.

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Christina Sunyoung Kim

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Opisthorchis viverrini (Ov is a complex-life-cycle trematode affecting 10 million people in SEA (Southeast Asia. Human infection occurs when infected cyprinid fish are consumed raw or undercooked. Ov requires three hosts and presents two free-living parasitic stages. As a consequence Ov transmission and infection in intermediate and human hosts are strongly mediated by environmental factors and understanding how environmental variability influences intermediate host abundance is critical. The objectives of this study were 1 to document water parameters, intermediate hosts abundance and infection spatio-temporal variation, 2 to assess their causal relationships and identify windows of transmission risk.Fish and snails were collected monthly for one year at 12 sites in Lawa Lake, an Ov-endemic region of Khon Kaen Province in Northeast Thailand. Physicochemical water parameters [pH, temperature (Tp, dissolved oxygen (DO, Salinity, electrical conductivity (EC, total dissolved solid (TDS, nitrite nitrogen (NO2-N, lead (Pb, total coliform bacteria (TCB and fecal coliform bacteria (FCB] were measured. Multivariate analyses, linear models and kriging were used to characterize water parameter variation and its influence on host abundance and infection prevalence. We found that sampling sites could be grouped in three clusters and discriminated along a nitrogen-salinity gradient where higher levels in the lake's southern region predicted higher Bithynia relative abundance (P<0.05 and lower snail and fish species diversity (P<0.05. Highest Bithynia abundance occurred during rainy season (P<0.001, independently of site influence. Cyprinids were the most abundant fish family and higher cyprinid relative abundance was found in areas with higher Bithynia relative abundance (P<0.05. Ov infection in snails was anecdotal while Ov infection in fish was higher in the southern region (P<0.001 at sites showing high FCB.Our results indicate that water contamination

Assessing the impact of homelessness on HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics

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C.P. Bhunu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Care for the people living with HIV/AIDS is more than the provision of antiretroviral therapy. The effects of homelessness on HIV/AIDS transmission are captured through a mathematical model. The mathematical model is rigorously analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. Results from the analysis of the reproduction number suggests that homelessness enhances both HIV transmission and progression to the AIDS stage. This is further supported by numerical simulations which show that some elements of homelessness (lack of entertainment enhances HIV/AIDS transmission.

Brazilian Amazon Roads and Parks: Temporal & Spatial Deforestation Dynamics

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Pfaff, A.; Robalino, J.

2011-12-01

Heterogeneous Forest Impacts of Transport Infrastructure: spatial frontier dynamics & impacts of Brazilian Amazon road changes Prior research on road impacts has almost completely ignored heterogeneity of impacts and as a result both empirically understated potential impact and missed policy potential. We note von Thunen's model suggests not only heterogeneity with distance from market but also specifically road impacts rising then falling with distance ('non-monoThunicity') Endogenous development and partial adjustment dynamics support this for the short run. Causal effects result from studying Brazilian Amazon deforestation (1976-87, 2000-04) using matching for short-run responses to lagged new roads changes (1968-75, 1985-00). We show the critical role of prior development, proxied by 1968 and 1985 road distances, for which exact matching addresses development trends and transforms impact estimates. Splitting the sample on this measure finds confirmation of the nonmonotonic predictions: new road impacts are relatively low if a prior road was close, such that prior transport access and endogenous development dynamics compete with the new road for influence, but also if a prior road was far, since first-decade adjustment in pristine areas is limited; yet in between these bounds, investments immediately raise deforestation significantly. This pattern helps to explain lower estimates within research on a single average impact. It suggests potential for REDD if a country chooses to shift its spatial transport networks. Protected Areas & Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: modeling and testing the impacts of varied PA strategies We model and then estimate the impacts of multiple types of protected areas upon 2000 - 2004 deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Our modeling starts with federal versus state objectives and predicts differences in both choice and implementation of each PA strategy that we examine. Our empirical examination brings not only breakdowns sufficient

Telomere dynamics and homeostasis in a transmissible cancer.

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Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Taylor, Robyn; Pyecroft, Stephen; Flanagan, Cassandra; Gombert, Sara; Papenfuss, Anthony T; Madsen, Thomas; Belov, Katherine

2012-01-01

Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) is a unique clonal cancer that threatens the world's largest carnivorous marsupial, the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) with extinction. This transmissible cancer is passed between individual devils by cell implantation during social interactions. The tumour arose in a Schwann cell of a single devil over 15 years ago and since then has expanded clonally, without showing signs of replicative senescence; in stark contrast to a somatic cell that displays a finite capacity for replication, known as the "Hayflick limit". In the present study we investigate the role of telomere length, measured as Telomere Copy Number (TCN), and telomerase and shelterin gene expression, as well as telomerase activity in maintaining hyperproliferation of Devil Facial Tumour (DFT) cells. Our results show that DFT cells have short telomeres. DFTD TCN does not differ between geographic regions or between strains. However, TCN has increased over time. Unlimited cell proliferation is likely to have been achieved through the observed up-regulation of the catalytic subunit of telomerase (TERT) and concomitant activation of telomerase. Up-regulation of the central component of shelterin, the TRF1-intercating nuclear factor 2 (TINF2) provides DFT a mechanism for telomere length homeostasis. The higher expression of both TERT and TINF2 may also protect DFT cells from genomic instability and enhance tumour proliferation. DFT cells appear to monitor and regulate the length of individual telomeres: i.e. shorter telomeres are elongated by up-regulation of telomerase-related genes; longer telomeres are protected from further elongation by members of the shelterin complex, which may explain the lack of spatial and strain variation in DFT telomere copy number. The observed longitudinal increase in gene expression in DFT tissue samples and telomerase activity in DFT cell lines might indicate a selection for more stable tumours with higher proliferative potential.

Telomere dynamics and homeostasis in a transmissible cancer.

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Beata Ujvari

Full Text Available Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD is a unique clonal cancer that threatens the world's largest carnivorous marsupial, the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii with extinction. This transmissible cancer is passed between individual devils by cell implantation during social interactions. The tumour arose in a Schwann cell of a single devil over 15 years ago and since then has expanded clonally, without showing signs of replicative senescence; in stark contrast to a somatic cell that displays a finite capacity for replication, known as the "Hayflick limit".In the present study we investigate the role of telomere length, measured as Telomere Copy Number (TCN, and telomerase and shelterin gene expression, as well as telomerase activity in maintaining hyperproliferation of Devil Facial Tumour (DFT cells. Our results show that DFT cells have short telomeres. DFTD TCN does not differ between geographic regions or between strains. However, TCN has increased over time. Unlimited cell proliferation is likely to have been achieved through the observed up-regulation of the catalytic subunit of telomerase (TERT and concomitant activation of telomerase. Up-regulation of the central component of shelterin, the TRF1-intercating nuclear factor 2 (TINF2 provides DFT a mechanism for telomere length homeostasis. The higher expression of both TERT and TINF2 may also protect DFT cells from genomic instability and enhance tumour proliferation.DFT cells appear to monitor and regulate the length of individual telomeres: i.e. shorter telomeres are elongated by up-regulation of telomerase-related genes; longer telomeres are protected from further elongation by members of the shelterin complex, which may explain the lack of spatial and strain variation in DFT telomere copy number. The observed longitudinal increase in gene expression in DFT tissue samples and telomerase activity in DFT cell lines might indicate a selection for more stable tumours with higher proliferative

Dynamically assisted Schwinger effect beyond the spatially-uniform-field approximation

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrov, I. A.; Plunien, G.; Shabaev, V. M.

2018-06-01

We investigate the phenomenon of electron-positron pair production from vacuum in the presence of a strong electric field superimposed by a weak but fast varying pulse which substantially increases the total particle yield. We employ a nonperturbative numerical technique and perform the calculations beyond the spatially-uniform-field approximation, i.e., dipole approximation, taking into account the coordinate dependence of the fast component. The analysis of the main characteristics of the pair-production process (momentum spectra of particles and total amount of pairs) reveals a number of important features which are absent within the previously used approximation. In particular, the structure of the momentum distribution is modified both qualitatively and quantitatively, and the total number of pairs created as well as the enhancement factor due to dynamical assistance become significantly smaller.

Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico.

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Michael A Johansson

Full Text Available The four dengue viruses, the agents of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever in humans, are transmitted predominantly by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The abundance and the transmission potential of Ae. aegypti are influenced by temperature and precipitation. While there is strong biological evidence for these effects, empirical studies of the relationship between climate and dengue incidence in human populations are potentially confounded by seasonal covariation and spatial heterogeneity. Using 20 years of data and a statistical approach to control for seasonality, we show a positive and statistically significant association between monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and monthly changes in dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. We also found that the strength of this association varies spatially, that this variation is associated with differences in local climate, and that this relationship is consistent with laboratory studies of the impacts of these factors on vector survival and viral replication. These results suggest the importance of temperature and precipitation in the transmission of dengue viruses and suggest a reason for their spatial heterogeneity. Thus, while dengue transmission may have a general system, its manifestation on a local scale may differ from global expectations.

Closed-loop digital control of nuclear reactors characterized by spatial dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, J.A.; Henry, A.F.; Lanning, D.D.; Meyer, J.E.

1991-03-01

This report describes the theoretical development and the evaluation via both simulation and, to a lesser degree, experiment of a digital method for the closed-loop control of power and temperature in reactors characterized by spatial dynamics. The major conclusions of the research are that (1) the sophistication of advanced reactor physics and thermal-hydraulic nodal methods is now such that accurate, real-time models of spatially-dependent, heterogeneous reactor cores can be run on present-generation minicomputers; (2) operation of both present-day commercial reactors as well as the multi-modular reactors now being considered for construction in the United States could be significantly improved by incorporating model-generated information on in-core conditions in a digital controller; and (3) digital controllers for spatially-dependent reactors should have a hierarchical or multi-tiered structure consisting of supervisory algorithms that preclude challenges to the safety system, global control laws designed to provide an optimal response to temperature and power perturbations, and local control laws that maintain parameters such as the margin to departure from nucleate boiling within specification. The technology described is appropriate to present-day pressurized water reactors and to the proposed multi-modular designs. The end-product of this research was a (near) real-time analytic plant-estimation code that was given the acronym POPSICLE for POwer Plant SImulator and ControlLEr. POPSICLE's core neutronics model is based on a quasi-static transient solution of the analytic nodal diffusion equations. 126 refs., 159 figs., 17 tabs

Closed-loop digital control of nuclear reactors characterized by spatial dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, J.A. (Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (USA). Nuclear Reactor Lab.); Henry, A.F.; Lanning, D.D.; Meyer, J.E. (Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (USA). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering)

1991-03-01

This report describes the theoretical development and the evaluation via both simulation and, to a lesser degree, experiment of a digital method for the closed-loop control of power and temperature in reactors characterized by spatial dynamics. The major conclusions of the research are that (1) the sophistication of advanced reactor physics and thermal-hydraulic nodal methods is now such that accurate, real-time models of spatially-dependent, heterogeneous reactor cores can be run on present-generation minicomputers; (2) operation of both present-day commercial reactors as well as the multi-modular reactors now being considered for construction in the United States could be significantly improved by incorporating model-generated information on in-core conditions in a digital controller; and (3) digital controllers for spatially-dependent reactors should have a hierarchical or multi-tiered structure consisting of supervisory algorithms that preclude challenges to the safety system, global control laws designed to provide an optimal response to temperature and power perturbations, and local control laws that maintain parameters such as the margin to departure from nucleate boiling within specification. The technology described is appropriate to present-day pressurized water reactors and to the proposed multi-modular designs. The end-product of this research was a (near) real-time analytic plant-estimation code that was given the acronym POPSICLE for POwer Plant SImulator and ControlLEr. POPSICLE's core neutronics model is based on a quasi-static transient solution of the analytic nodal diffusion equations. 126 refs., 159 figs., 17 tabs.

HVDC transmission from nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshida, Yukio; Takenaka, Kiyoshi; Ichikawa, Takemi; Ueda, Kiyotaka; Machida, Takehiko

1979-01-01

The HVDC transmission directly from nuclear power plants is one of the patterns of long distance and large capacity HVDC transmission systems. In this report, the double pole, two-circuit HVDC transmission from a BWR nuclear power plant is considered, and the dynamic response characteristics due to the faults in dc line and ac line of inverter side are analyzed, to clarify the dynamic characteristics of the BWR nuclear power plant and dc system due to system faults and the effects of dc power control to prevent reactor scram. (1) In the instantaneous earthing fault of one dc line, the reactor is not scrammed by start-up within 0.8 sec. (2) When the earthing fault continues, power transmission drops to 75% by suspending the faulty pole, and the reactor is scrammed. (3) In the instantaneous ground fault of 2 dc lines, the reactor is not scrammed if the faulty dc lines are started up within 0.4 sec. (4) In the existing control of dc lines, the reactor is scrammed when the ac voltage at an ac-dc connection point largely drops due to ac failure. (J.P.N.)

Spatial overlap links seemingly unconnected genotype-matched TB cases in rural Uganda

Science.gov (United States)

Kato-Maeda, Midori; Emperador, Devy M.; Wandera, Bonnie; Mugagga, Olive; Crandall, John; Janes, Michael; Marquez, Carina; Kamya, Moses R.; Charlebois, Edwin D.; Havlir, Diane V.

2018-01-01

Introduction Incomplete understanding of TB transmission dynamics in high HIV prevalence settings remains an obstacle for prevention. Understanding where transmission occurs could provide a platform for case finding and interrupting transmission. Methods From 2012–2015, we sought to recruit all adults starting TB treatment in a Ugandan community. Participants underwent household (HH) contact investigation, and provided names of social contacts, sites of work, healthcare and socializing, and two sputum samples. Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture-positive specimens underwent 24-loci MIRU-VNTR and spoligotyping. We sought to identify epidemiologic links between genotype-matched cases by analyzing social networks and mapping locations where cases reported spending ≥12 hours over the one-month pre-treatment. Sites of spatial overlap (≤100m) between genotype-matched cases were considered potential transmission sites. We analyzed social networks stratified by genotype clustering status, with cases linked by shared locations, and compared network density by location type between clustered vs. non-clustered cases. Results Of 173 adults with TB, 131 (76%) were enrolled, 108 provided sputum, and 84/131 (78%) were MTB culture-positive: 52% (66/131) tested HIV-positive. Of 118 adult HH contacts, 105 (89%) were screened and 3 (2.5%) diagnosed with active TB. Overall, 33 TB cases (39%) belonged to 15 distinct MTB genotype-matched clusters. Within each cluster, no cases shared a HH or reported shared non-HH contacts. In 6/15 (40%) clusters, potential epidemiologic links were identified by spatial overlap at specific locations: 5/6 involved health care settings. Genotype-clustered TB social networks had significantly greater network density based on shared clinics (p<0.001) and decreased density based on shared marketplaces (p<0.001), compared to non-clustered networks. Conclusions In this molecular epidemiologic study, links between MTB genotype-matched cases were only

Spatial distributions of niche-constructing populations

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Xiaozhuo Han

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Niche construction theory regards organisms not only as the object of natural selection but also an active subject that can change their own selective pressure through eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Through reviewing the existing works on the theoretical models of niche construction, here we present the progress made on how niche construction influences genetic structure of spatially structured populations and the spatial-temporal dynamics of metapopulations, with special focuses on mathematical models and simulation methods. The majority of results confirmed that niche construction can significantly alter the evolutionary trajectories of structured populations. Organism-environmental interactions induced by niche construction can have profound influence on the dynamics, competition and diversity of metapopulations. It can affect fine-scale spatially distribution of species and spatial heterogeneity of the environment. We further propose a few research directions with potentials, such as applying adaptive dynamics or spatial game theory to explore the effect of niche construction on phenotypic evolution and diversification.

Analyzing transmission dynamics of cholera with public health interventions.

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Posny, Drew; Wang, Jin; Mukandavire, Zindoga; Modnak, Chairat

2015-06-01

Cholera continues to be a serious public health concern in developing countries and the global increase in the number of reported outbreaks suggests that activities to control the diseases and surveillance programs to identify or predict the occurrence of the next outbreaks are not adequate. These outbreaks have increased in frequency, severity, duration and endemicity in recent years. Mathematical models for infectious diseases play a critical role in predicting and understanding disease mechanisms, and have long provided basic insights in the possible ways to control infectious diseases. In this paper, we present a new deterministic cholera epidemiological model with three types of control measures incorporated into a cholera epidemic setting: treatment, vaccination and sanitation. Essential dynamical properties of the model with constant intervention controls which include local and global stabilities for the equilibria are carefully analyzed. Further, using optimal control techniques, we perform a study to investigate cost-effective solutions for time-dependent public health interventions in order to curb disease transmission in epidemic settings. Our results show that the basic reproductive number (R0) remains the model's epidemic threshold despite the inclusion of a package of cholera interventions. For time-dependent controls, the results suggest that these interventions closely interplay with each other, and the costs of controls directly affect the length and strength of each control in an optimal strategy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impedance Synthesis Based Vibration Analysis of Geared Transmission System

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Yafeng Ren

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The severity of gear noise response depends on the sensitivity of geared rotor system dynamics to the transmission error. As gearbox design trending towards lighter weight and lower noise, the influence of housing compliance on system dynamic characteristics cannot be ignored. In this study, a gear-shaft-bearing-housing coupled impedance model is proposed to account for the effect of housing compliance on the vibration of geared transmission system. This proposed dynamic model offers convenient modeling, efficient computing, and ability to combine computed parameters with experimental ones. The numerical simulations on system dynamic characteristics are performed for both a rigid housing configuration and a flexible one. Natural frequencies, dynamic mesh forces, and dynamic bearing reaction loads are computed, and the housing compliance contribution on system dynamic characteristics is analyzed. Results show that increasing housing compliance will decrease the system natural frequencies and will affect the dynamic bearing reaction loads significantly but have very little influence on the dynamic mesh force. Also, the analysis shows that bearing stiffness has significant influence on the degree of housing contribution on system dynamic characteristics.

[Spatial and temporal dynamics of the weed community in the Zoysia matrella lawn].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jia-Qi; Li, You-Han; Zeng, Ying; Xie, Xin-Ming

2014-02-01

The heterogeneity of species composition is one of the main attributes in weed community dynamics. Based on species frequency and power law, this paper studied the variations of weed community species composition and spatial heterogeneity in a Zoysia matrella lawn in Guangzhou at different time. The results showed that there were 43 weed species belonging to 19 families in the Z. matrella lawn from 2007 to 2009, in which Gramineae, Compositae, Cyperaceae and Rubiaceae had a comparative advantage. Perennial weeds accounted for the largest proportion of weeds and increased gradually in the three years. Weed communities distributed in higher heterogeneity than in a random model. Dominant weeds varied with season and displayed regularity in the order of 'dicotyledon-monocotyledon-dicotyledon weeds' and 'perennial-annual-perennial weeds'. The spatial heterogeneity of weed community in Z. matrella lawn was higher in summer than in winter. The diversity and evenness of weed community were higher in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. The number of weed species with high heterogeneity in summer was higher than in the other seasons. The spatial heterogeneity and diversity of weed community had no significant change in the three years, while the evenness of weed community had the tendency to decline gradually.

Effect of temperature and density fluctuations on the spatially heterogeneous dynamics of glass-forming Van der Waals liquids under high pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Koperwas, K; Grzybowski, A; Grzybowska, K; Wojnarowska, Z; Sokolov, A P; Paluch, M

2013-09-20

In this Letter, we show how temperature and density fluctuations affect the spatially heterogeneous dynamics at ambient and elevated pressures. By using high-pressure experimental data for van der Waals liquids, we examine contributions of the temperature and density fluctuations to the dynamics heterogeneity. We show that the dynamic heterogeneity decreases significantly with increasing pressure at a constant structural relaxation time (isochronal condition), while the broadening of the relaxation spectrum remains constant. This observation questions the relationship between spectral broadening and dynamic heterogeneity.

Explanation of the Inverse Doppler Effect Observed in Nonlinear Transmission Lines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kozyrev, Alexander B.; Weide, Daniel W. van der

2005-01-01

The theory of the inverse Doppler effect recently observed in magnetic nonlinear transmission lines is developed. We explain the crucial role of the backward spatial harmonic in the occurrence of an inverse Doppler effect and draw analogies of the magnetic nonlinear transmission line to the backward wave oscillator

Select overexpression of homer1a in dorsal hippocampus impairs spatial working memory

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Tansu Celikel

2007-10-01

Full Text Available Long Homer proteins forge assemblies of signaling components involved in glutamate receptor signaling in postsynaptic excitatory neurons, including those underlying synaptic transmission and plasticity. The short immediate-early gene (IEG Homer1a can dynamically uncouple these physical associations by functional competition with long Homer isoforms. To examine the consequences of Homer1amediated uncoupling for synaptic plasticity and behavior, we generated forebrain-specific tetracycline (tet controlled expression of Venus-tagged Homer1a (H1aV in mice. We report that sustained overexpression of H1aV impaired spatial working but not reference memory. Most notably, a similar impairment was observed when H1aV expression was restricted to the dorsal hippocampus (HP, which identifies this structure as the principal cortical area for spatial working memory. Interestingly, H1aV overexpression also abolished maintenance of CA3-CA1 long-term potentiation (LTP. These impairments, generated by sustained high Homer1a levels, identify a requirement for long Homer forms in synaptic plasticity and temporal encoding of spatial memory.

A probabilistic transmission and population dynamic model to assess tuberculosis infection risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Chung-Min; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Lin, Yi-Jun; Hsieh, Nan-Hung; Huang, Tang-Luen; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

2012-08-01

The purpose of this study was to examine tuberculosis (TB) population dynamics and to assess potential infection risk in Taiwan. A well-established mathematical model of TB transmission built on previous models was adopted to study the potential impact of TB transmission. A probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate site-specific risks of developing disease soon after recent primary infection, exogenous reinfection, or through endogenous reactivation (latently infected TB) among Taiwan regions. Here, we showed that the proportion of endogenous reactivation (53-67%) was larger than that of exogenous reinfection (32-47%). Our simulations showed that as epidemic reaches a steady state, age distribution of cases would finally shift toward older age groups dominated by latently infected TB cases as a result of endogenous reactivation. A comparison of age-weighted TB incidence data with our model simulation output with 95% credible intervals revealed that the predictions were in an apparent agreement with observed data. The median value of overall basic reproduction number (R₀) in eastern Taiwan ranged from 1.65 to 1.72, whereas northern Taiwan had the lowest R₀ estimate of 1.50. We found that total TB incidences in eastern Taiwan had 25-27% probabilities of total proportion of infected population exceeding 90%, whereas there were 36-66% probabilities having exceeded 20% of total proportion of infected population attributed to latently infected TB. We suggested that our Taiwan-based analysis can be extended to the context of developing countries, where TB remains a substantial cause of elderly morbidity and mortality. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Dynamics of forest malaria transmission in Balaghat district, Madhya Pradesh, India.

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Neeru Singh

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: An epidemiological and entomological study was carried out in Balaghat district, Madhya Pradesh, India to understand the dynamics of forest malaria transmission in a difficult and hard to reach area where indoor residual spray and insecticide treated nets were used for vector control. METHODS: This community based cross-sectional study was undertaken from January 2010 to December 2012 in Baihar and Birsa Community Health Centres of district Balaghat for screening malaria cases. Entomological surveillance included indoor resting collections, pyrethrum spray catches and light trap catches. Anophelines were assayed by ELISA for detection of Plasmodium circumsporozoite protein. FINDINGS: Plasmodium falciparum infection accounted for >80% of all infections. P. vivax 16.5%, P. malariae 0.75% and remaining were mixed infections of P. falciparum, P. vivax and P. malariae. More than, 30% infections were found in infants under 6 months of age. Overall, an increasing trend in malaria positivity was observed from 2010 to 2012 (chi-square for trend  =  663.55; P<0.0001. Twenty five Anopheles culicifacies (sibling species C, D and E were positive for circumsporozoite protein of P. falciparum (44% and P. vivax (56%. Additionally, 2 An. fluviatilis, were found positive for P. falciparum and 1 for P. vivax (sibling species S and T. An. fluviatilis sibling species T was found as vector in forest villages for the first time in India. CONCLUSION: These results showed that the study villages are experiencing almost perennial malaria transmission inspite of indoor residual spray and insecticide treated nets. Therefore, there is a need for new indoor residual insecticides which has longer residual life or complete coverage of population with long lasting insecticide treated nets or both indoor residual spray and long lasting bed nets for effective vector control. There is a need to undertake a well designed case control study to evaluate the efficacy

Non-Monotonic Spatial Reasoning with Answer Set Programming Modulo Theories

OpenAIRE

Wałęga, Przemysław Andrzej; Schultz, Carl; Bhatt, Mehul

2016-01-01

The systematic modelling of dynamic spatial systems is a key requirement in a wide range of application areas such as commonsense cognitive robotics, computer-aided architecture design, and dynamic geographic information systems. We present ASPMT(QS), a novel approach and fully-implemented prototype for non-monotonic spatial reasoning -a crucial requirement within dynamic spatial systems- based on Answer Set Programming Modulo Theories (ASPMT). ASPMT(QS) consists of a (qualitative) spatial re...

Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012.

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Wen-Yi Zhang

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures.Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences.A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005-2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05. Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties.This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005-2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

Modelling temporal and spatial dynamics of benthic fauna in North-West-European shelf seas

Science.gov (United States)

Lessin, Gennadi; Bruggeman, Jorn; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme; Blackford, Jerry

2017-04-01

Benthic zones of shallow shelf seas receive high amounts of organic material. Physical processes such as resuspension, as well as complex transformations mediated by diverse faunal and microbial communities, define fate of this material, which can be returned to the water column, reworked within sediments or ultimately buried. In recent years, numerical models of various complexity and serving different goals have been developed and applied in order to better understand and predict dynamics of benthic processes. ERSEM includes explicit parameterisations of several groups of benthic biota, which makes it particularly applicable for studies of benthic biodiversity, biological interactions within sediments and benthic-pelagic coupling. To assess model skill in reproducing temporal (inter-annual and seasonal) dynamics of major benthic macrofaunal groups, 1D model simulation results were compared with data from the Western Channel Observatory (WCO) benthic survey. The benthic model was forced with organic matter deposition rates inferred from observed phytoplankton abundance and model parameters were subsequently recalibrated. Based on model results and WCO data comparison, deposit-feeders exert clear seasonal variability, while for suspension-feeders inter-annual variability is more pronounced. Spatial distribution of benthic fauna was investigated using results of a full-scale NEMO-ERSEM hindcast simulation of the North-West European Shelf Seas area, covering the period of 1981-2014. Results suggest close relationship between spatial distribution of biomass of benthic faunal functional groups in relation to bathymetry, hydrodynamic conditions and organic matter supply. Our work highlights that it is feasible to construct, implement and validate models that explicitly include functional groups of benthic macrofauna. Moreover, the modelling approach delivers detailed information on benthic biogeochemistry and food-web at spatial and temporal scales that are unavailable

Highly focused anopheline breeding sites and malaria transmission in Dakar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bouzid Samia

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Urbanization has a great impact on the composition of the vector system and malaria transmission dynamics. In Dakar, some malaria cases are autochthonous but parasite rates and incidences of clinical malaria attacks have been recorded at low levels. Ecological heterogeneity of malaria transmission was investigated in Dakar, in order to characterize the Anopheles breeding sites in the city and to study the dynamics of larval density and adult aggressiveness in ten characteristically different urban areas. Methods Ten study areas were sampled in Dakar and Pikine. Mosquitoes were collected by human landing collection during four nights in each area (120 person-nights. The Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite (CSP index was measured by ELISA and the entomological inoculation rates (EIR were calculated. Open water collections in the study areas were monitored weekly for physico-chemical characterization and the presence of anopheline larvae. Adult mosquitoes and hatched larvae were identified morphologically and by molecular methods. Results In September-October 2007, 19,451 adult mosquitoes were caught among which, 1,101 were Anopheles gambiae s.l. The Human Biting Rate ranged from 0.1 bites per person per night in Yoff Village to 43.7 in Almadies. Seven out of 1,101 An. gambiae s.l. were found to be positive for P. falciparum (CSP index = 0.64%. EIR ranged from 0 infected bites per person per year in Yoff Village to 16.8 in Almadies. The An. gambiae complex population was composed of Anopheles arabiensis (94.8% and Anopheles melas (5.2%. None of the An. melas were infected with P. falciparum. Of the 54 water collection sites monitored, 33 (61.1% served as anopheline breeding sites on at least one observation. No An. melas was identified among the larval samples. Some physico-chemical characteristics of water bodies were associated with the presence/absence of anopheline larvae and with larval density. A very close parallel

Attenuation correction using simultaneous emission - transmission tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ljubenov, V.; Marinkovic, P.

1998-01-01

In order to reduce degrading influence of attenuation on SPECT image quality, possibility for correction, based on simultaneous emission / transmission measurements, is discussed. Numerical photon transport simulations through the phantom and acquisition of of tomographic projections are performed by using Monte Carlo code MCNP-4A. Amount of contamination in transmission data due to photon Compton scattering for emission energy window is specially analyzed and appropriate spatial depending 'noise / signal' factors for three different external sources, applied with Tc-99m, are determined (author)

A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology.

Science.gov (United States)

Tompkins, Adrian M; Ermert, Volker

2013-02-18

The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.

Population dynamics of HIV-2 in rural West Africa: comparison with HIV-1 and ongoing transmission at the heart of the epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Silva, Thushan I.; van Tienen, Carla; Onyango, Clayton; Jabang, Abdoulie; Vincent, Tim; Loeff, Maarten F. Schim van der; Coutinho, Roel A.; Jaye, Assan; Rowland-Jones, Sarah; Whittle, Hilton; Cotten, Matthew; Hué, Stéphane

2013-01-01

To compare the population dynamics of HIV-2 and HIV-1, and to characterize ongoing HIV-2 transmission in rural Guinea-Bissau. Phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses using HIV-2 gag and env, and HIV-1 env sequences, combined with epidemiological data from a community cohort. Samples were obtained

Exploring spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián; Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos; de la Riva Fernández, Juan

2017-10-01

This paper explores spatial-temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterization. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial - regional and provincial/NUTS3 - levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974-2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures - Pettitt test, AMOC (at most one change), PELT (pruned exact linear time) and BinSeg (binary segmentation) - at a regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both the regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA) and varimax rotation to trend outputs - mainly Sen's slope values - to summarize overall temporal behaviour and to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann-Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the northwestern provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Similarly, the Hinterland and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1), summer burnt area (PC2), large fires (PC3) and natural fires (PC4).

Spatial epidemiology of eastern equine encephalitis in Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Vander Kelen, Patrick T; Downs, Joni A; Stark, Lillian M; Loraamm, Rebecca W; Anderson, James H; Unnasch, Thomas R

2012-11-05

Eastern Equine Encephalitis virus (EEEV) is an alphavirus with high pathogenicity in both humans and horses. Florida continues to have the highest occurrence of human cases in the USA, with four fatalities recorded in 2010. Unlike other states, Florida supports year-round EEEV transmission. This research uses GIS to examine spatial patterns of documented horse cases during 2005-2010 in order to understand the relationships between habitat and transmission intensity of EEEV in Florida. Cumulative incidence rates of EEE in horses were calculated for each county. Two cluster analyses were performed using density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN). The first analysis was based on regional clustering while the second focused on local clustering. Ecological associations of EEEV were examined using compositional analysis and Euclidean distance analysis to determine if the proportion or proximity of certain habitats played a role in transmission. The DBSCAN algorithm identified five distinct regional spatial clusters that contained 360 of the 438 horse cases. The local clustering resulted in 18 separate clusters containing 105 of the 438 cases. Both the compositional analysis and Euclidean distance analysis indicated that the top five habitats positively associated with horse cases were rural residential areas, crop and pastureland, upland hardwood forests, vegetated non-forested wetlands, and tree plantations. This study demonstrates that in Florida tree plantations are a focus for epizootic transmission of EEEV. It appears both the abundance and proximity of tree plantations are factors associated with increased risk of EEE in horses and therefore humans. This association helps to explain why there is are spatially distinct differences in the amount of EEE horse cases across Florida.

A new approach to spatially explicit modelling of forest dynamics: spacing, ageing and neighbourhood competition of mangrove trees

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berger, U.; Hildenbrandt, H.

2000-01-01

This paper presents a new approach to spatially explicit modelling that enables the influence of neighbourhood effects on the dynamics of forests and plant communities to be analysed. We refer to this approach as 'field of neighbourhood' (FON). It combines the 'neighbourhood philosophy' of

DISPLACE: a dynamic, individual-based model for spatial fishing planning and effort displacement: Integrating underlying fish population models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bastardie, Francois; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Miethe, Tanja

or to the alteration of individual fishing patterns. We demonstrate that integrating the spatial activity of vessels and local fish stock abundance dynamics allow for interactions and more realistic predictions of fishermen behaviour, revenues and stock abundance......We previously developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) evaluating the bio-economic efficiency of fishing vessel movements between regions according to the catching and targeting of different species based on the most recent high resolution spatial fishery data. The main purpose...... was to test the effects of alternative fishing effort allocation scenarios related to fuel consumption, energy efficiency (value per litre of fuel), sustainable fish stock harvesting, and profitability of the fisheries. The assumption here was constant underlying resource availability. Now, an advanced...

[Design and optimization of wireless power and data transmission for visual prosthesis].

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Xuping; Wu, Kaijie; Zhao, Lei; Chai, Xinyu

2013-11-01