WorldWideScience

Sample records for spatial risk profiling

  1. Spatial risk profiling of Schistosoma japonicum in Eryuan county, Yunnan province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Steinmann

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian spatial risk profiling holds promise to enhance our understanding of the epidemiology of parasitic diseases, and to target interventions in a cost-effective manner. Here, we present findings from a study using Bayesian variogram models to map and predict the seroprevalence of Schistosoma japonicum in Eryuan county, Yunnan province, China, including risk factor analysis. Questionnaire and serological data were obtained through a cross-sectional survey carried out in 35 randomly selected villages with 3,220 people enrolled. Remotely-sensed environmental data were derived from publicly available databases. Bivariate and non-spatial Bayesian multiple logistic regression models were used to identify associations between the local seroprevalence and demographic (i.e. age and sex, environmental (i.e. location of village, altitude, slope, land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index and socio-economic factors. In the spatially-explicit Bayesian model, S. japonicum seroprevalence was significantly associated with sex, age and the location of the village. Males, those aged below 10 years and inhabitants of villages situated on steep slopes (inclination ≥20° or on less precipitous slopes of >5° above 2,150 m were at lower risk of seroconversion than their respective counterparts. Our final prediction model revealed an elevated risk for seroconversion in the plains of the eastern parts of Eryuan county. In conclusion, the prediction map can be utilized for spatial targeting of schistosomiasis control interventions in Eryuan county. Moreover, S. japonicum seroprevalence studies might offer a convenient means to assess the infection pressure experienced by local communities, and to improve risk profiling in areas where the prevalence and infection intensities have come down following repeated rounds of praziquantel administration.

  2. Synthesis of national risk profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-01-01

    The methodology used and results obtained in computing the national risk profile for carbon fibers (CF) released after an aircraft accident (fire or explosion) are presented. The computation was performed by use of twenty-six individual conditional risk profiles, together with the extrapolation of these profiles to other U.S. airports. The risk profile was obtained using 1993 CF utilization forecasts, but numbers of facilities were taken from 1972 and 1975 census data, while losses were expressed in 1977 dollars.

  3. Similarity between neonatal profile and socioeconomic index: a spatial approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    d'Orsi Eleonora

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to compare neonatal characteristics and socioeconomic conditions in Rio de Janeiro city neighborhoods in order to identify priority areas for intervention. The study design was ecological. Two databases were used: the Brazilian Population Census and the Live Birth Information System, aggregated by neighborhoods. Spatial analysis, multivariate cluster classification, and Moran's I statistics for detection of spatial clustering were used. A similarity index was created to compare socioeconomic clusters with the neonatal profile in each neighborhood. The proportions of Apgar score above 8 and cesarean sections showed positive spatial correlation and high similarity with the socioeconomic index. The proportion of low birth weight infants showed a random spatial distribution, indicating that at this scale of analysis, birth weight is not sufficiently sensitive to discriminate subtler differences among population groups. The observed relationship between the neighborhoods' neonatal profile (particularly Apgar score and mode of delivery and socioeconomic conditions shows evidence of a change in infant health profile, where the possibility for intervention shifts to medical services and the Apgar score assumes growing significance as a risk indicator.

  4. Metabolite Profiles of Diabetes Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Gerszten, Robert E.

    2013-01-01

    Metabolic diseases present particular difficulty for clinicians because they are often present for years before becoming clinically apparent. We investigated whether metabolite profiles can predict the development of diabetes in the Framingham Heart Study. Five branched-chain and aromatic amino acids had highly-significant associations with future diabetes, while a combination of three amino acids strongly predicted future diabetes by up to 12 years (>5-fold increased risk for individuals in ...

  5. Exploiting the spatial profiles of light

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dudley, Angela L

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We implement digital holograms for the creation and detection of the spatial modes of light. We make use of modal decomposition theory to determine the numerous properties of light, from the modal content of laser beams to decoding the information...

  6. Mapping spatial patterns of people's risk perception of landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kofler, Christian; Pedoth, Lydia; Elzbieta Stawinoga, Agnieszka; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    The resilience of communities against natural hazards is largely influenced by how the individuals perceive risk. A good understanding of people's risk perception, awareness and hazard knowledge is crucial for developing and improving risk management and communication strategies between authorities and the affected population. A lot of research has been done in investigating the social aspects of risks to natural hazards by means of interviews or questionnaires. However, there is still a lack of research in the investigation of the influence of the spatial distance to a hazard event on peoples risk perception. While the spatial dimension of a natural hazard event is always assessed in works with a natural science approach, it is often neglected in works on social aspects of natural hazards. In the present study, we aimed to overcome these gaps by combining methods from different disciplines and assessing and mapping the spatial pattern of risk perception through multivariate statistical approaches based on empirical data from questionnaires. We will present results from a case study carried out in Badia, located in the Province of South Tyrol- Italy, where in December 2012 a landslide destroyed four residential buildings and led to the evacuation of 36 people. By means of questionnaires distributed to all adults living in the case study area we assessed people's risk perception and asked respondents to allocate their place of residence on a map of the case study area subdivided in 7 zones. Based on the data of the questionnaire results we developed a risk perception factor in order to express various assessed aspects linked to risk perception with one metric. We analyzed and mapped this factor according to the different zones reflecting the spatial distance to the event. Furthermore, a cluster analysis identified various risk behavior profiles within the population. We also investigated the spatial patterns of these risk profiles. We revealed that the residential

  7. Venous thromboembolism: Risk profile and management of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    surgery in a tertiary hospital and to audit the VTE prophylaxis prescribed. ... This group of patients require formal preoperative VTE risk assessment using a recognised scoring model. ... The aim of this study was to establish the VTE risk profile.

  8. Testing for changes in spatial relative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazelton, Martin L

    2017-07-30

    The spatial relative risk function is a useful tool for describing geographical variation in disease incidence. We consider the problem of comparing relative risk functions between two time periods, with the idea of detecting alterations in the spatial pattern of disease risk irrespective of whether there has been a change in the overall incidence rate. Using case-control datasets for each period, we use kernel smoothing methods to derive a test statistic based on the difference between the log-relative risk functions, which we term the log-relative risk ratio. For testing a null hypothesis of an unchanging spatial pattern of risk, we show how p-values can be computed using both randomization methods and an asymptotic normal approximation. The methodology is applied to data on campylobacteriosis from 2006 to 2013 in a region of New Zealand. We find clear evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of risk between those years, which can be explained in differences by response to a public health initiative between urban and rural communities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Spatial profile of contours inducing long-range color assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devinck, Frédéric; Spillmann, Lothar; Werner, John S

    2006-01-01

    Color induction was measured using a matching method for two spatial patterns, each composed of double contours. In one pattern (the standard), the contours had sharp edges to induce the Watercolor Effect (WCE); in the other, the two contours had a spatial taper so that the overall profile produced a sawtooth edge, or ramped stimulus. These patterns were chosen based on our previous study demonstrating that the strength of the chromatic WCE depends on a luminance difference between the two contours. Low-pass chromatic mechanisms, unlike bandpass luminance mechanisms, may be expected to be insensitive to the difference between the two spatial profiles. The strength of the watercolor spreading was similar for the two patterns at narrow widths of the contour possibly because of chromatic aberration, but with wider contours, the standard stimulus produced stronger assimilation than the ramped stimulus. This research suggests that luminance-dependent chromatic mechanisms mediate the WCE and that these mechanisms are sensitive to differences in the two spatial profiles of the pattern contours only when they are wide.

  10. Risk profiles of Alzheimer disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilbul, Melanie; Schipper, Hyman M

    2011-07-01

    Alzheimer disease (AD) is a dementing, neurodegenerative disorder that affects approximately 500,000 Canadians and its prevalence is expected to double over the next 30 years. Although several medications may temporarily augment cognitive abilities in AD, there presently exists no proven method to avoid the inevitable clinical deterioration in this devastating condition. The delineation of risk factors for the development of AD offers hope for the advent of effective prevention or interventions that might retard the onset of symptoms. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of midlife risk factors implicated in the etiopathogenesis of sporadic AD. Although some risk factors are heritable and largely beyond our control, others are determined by lifestyle or environment and are potentially modifiable. In a companion paper, we introduce the concept of an Alzheimer Risk Assessment Clinic for ascertainment and mitigation of these and other putative dementia risk factors in middle-aged adults.

  11. Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinzon, Jorge E.

    2010-01-01

    This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

  12. Cardiovascular risk profile in women and dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufouil, Carole; Seshadri, Sudha; Chêne, Geneviève

    2014-01-01

    There is growing evidence for the importance of cardiovascular risk factors in dementia development, including Alzheimer's disease. As cardiovascular risk profiles vary greatly by gender, with men suffering a greater burden of cardiovascular risk in midlife, this could lead to differences in dementia risk. To explore current evidence on the association between components of the cardiovascular risk profile and dementia risk in women and men, we reviewed all studies reporting the risk of dementia associated with cardiovascular risk factors stratified by gender and found 53 eligible articles out of over 4,000 published since the year 2000. Consistent results were found: 1) for exposures acting specifically in women: Overweight/obesity (harmful) and physical activity (protective), and 2) for exposures acting similarly in women and men: Moderate alcohol (protective) and hypertension, diabetes, and depression (harmful). A modified effect of tobacco or high cholesterol/statin use remained controversial. Available data do not allow us to assess whether selection of men with healthier cardiovascular profile (due to cardiovascular death in midlife) could lead in late life either to a difference in the distribution of risk factors or to a differential effect of these risk factors by gender. We recommend that results on dementia risk factors, especially cardiovascular ones, be reported systematically by gender in all future studies. More generally, as cardiovascular risk profiles evolve over time, more attention needs to be paid to the detection and correction of cardiovascular risk factors, as early as possible in the life course, and as actively in women as in men.

  13. Venous thromboembolism: Risk profile and management of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives. This study aims to describe the venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk profile of women undergoing elective gynaecological surgery in a tertiary hospital and to audit the VTE prophylaxis prescribed. Methods. One hundred and nine women who underwent elective gynaecological surgery at Kalafong Provincial ...

  14. Risk-profile modification of energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, B.O.

    1992-01-01

    The commodity futures and swaps markets are thought to be the invention of speculators, the bane of the oil business, or possibly something confined to finance departments of major corporations. In actuality, they should be considered more as an insurance vehicle and can be used at the project level to modify the risk profile of a property. In this context, an increased familiarity with them can be useful for an engineer. Either futures of swaps can be used to guarantee or modify product prices. While this does not necessarily maximize cash flow or present worth, it can protect a project or company for several years from downside price risk, thereby reducing the risk of the venture. This can be particularly important if lower product prices would cause unacceptable cash flows or net incomes. This paper reports that reducing risk by limiting downside price exposure could alter budgeting decisions, allow continued or expanded operations of a particular property, or increase debt capacity

  15. Preliminary results of spatially resolved ECR ion beam profile investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panitzsch, L.; Stalder, M.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R.F.

    2012-01-01

    The profile of an ion beam produced in an Electron Cyclotron Resonance Ion Source (ECRIS) can vary greatly depending on the source settings and the ion-optical tuning. Strongly focussed ion beams form circular structures (hollow beams) as predicted by simulations and observed in experiments. Each of the rings is predicted to be dominated by ions with same or at least similar m/q-ratios due to ion-optical effects. To check this we performed a series of preliminary investigations to test the required tuning capabilities of our ion source. This includes beam focussing (A) and beam steering (B) using a 3D-movable extraction. Having tuned the source to deliver a beam of strongly focussed ions of different ion species and having steered this beam to match the transmittance area of the sector magnet we also recorded the ion charge state distribution of the strongly focussed beam profile at different, spatially limited positions (C). The preliminary results will be introduced within this paper: it appears that our 3D-movable extraction is very efficient to steer and to focus the beam strongly. The paper is followed by the slides of the presentation. (authors)

  16. A sodar for profiling in a spatially inhomogeneous urban environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Bradley

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The urban boundary layer, above the canopy, is still poorly understood. One of the challenges is obtaining data by sampling more than a few meters above the rooftops, given the spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in both horizontal and vertical. Sodars are generally useful tools for ground-based remote sensing of winds and turbulence, but rely on horizontal homogeneity (as do lidars in building up 3-component wind vectors from sampling three or more spatially separated volumes. The time taken for sound to travel to a typical range of 200 m and back is also a limitation. A sodar of radically different design is investigated, aimed at addressing these problems. It has a single vertical transmitted sound pulse. Doppler shifted signals are received from a number of volumes around the periphery of the transmitted beam with microphones which each having tight angular sensitivity at zenith angles slightly off-vertical. The spatial spread of sampled volumes is therefore smaller. By having more receiver microphones than a conventional sodar, the effect of smaller zenith angle is offset. More rapid profiling is also possible with a single vertical transmitted beam, instead of the usual multiple beams.A prototype design is described, together with initial field measurements. It is found that the beam forming using a single dish antenna and the drift of the sound pulse downwind both give rise to reduced performance compared with expectations. It is concluded that, while the new sodar works in principle, the compromises arising in the design mean that the expected advantages have not been realized

  17. Bicycling to school improves the cardiometabolic risk factor profile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ostergaard, Lars; Børrestad, Line A B; Tarp, Jakob

    2012-01-01

    To investigate whether bicycling to school improves cardiometabolic risk factor profile and cardiorespiratory fitness among children.......To investigate whether bicycling to school improves cardiometabolic risk factor profile and cardiorespiratory fitness among children....

  18. Time trends in osteoporosis risk factor profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Jakob Præst; Hyldstrup, Lars; Jensen, Jens-Erik Beck

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this article was to identify prevalent osteoporosis risk factors, medications and comorbidities associated with bone mineral density (BMD). Furthermore to evaluate changes in risk factor profiles over 12 years. 6285 women consecutively referred to an osteoporosis specialist clinic were...... was established in a real-life setting. The prevalence of osteoporosis and proportion of patient's having comorbidity's associated with osteoporosis were increasing during the inclusion period (start 23.8 %, end 29.7 %). Increasing age (OR = 1.05), current smoking (OR = 1.18), estrogen deficiency (OR = 1.......7), hyperthyroidism (OR = 1.5), previous major osteoporotic fracture (OR = 1.7), former osteoporosis treatment (OR = 3.5), higher BMI (OR = 0.87), use of calcium supplementation (OR = 1.2), high exercise level (OR = 0.7), and use of thiazide diuretics (OR = 0.7) were identified as predictors of osteoporosis by DXA...

  19. The flood risk management plan: towards spatial water governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, T.; Driessen, P.

    2017-01-01

    The flood risk management plan challenges both water engineers and spatial planners. It calls for a new mode of governance for flood risk management. This contribution analyses how this mode of governance distinguishes from prevalent approaches. Spatial planning and water management in Europe are

  20. Cardiovascular risk-benefit profile of sibutramine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheen, A J

    2010-01-01

    Sibutramine is a combined norepinephrine and serotonin reuptake inhibitor used as an antiobesity agent to reduce appetite and promote weight loss in combination with diet and exercise. At a daily dose of 10-20 mg, it was initially considered to have a good safety profile, as it does not induce primary pulmonary hypertension or adverse effects on cardiac valves, in contrast to previous reports relating to some other antiobesity agents. However, it exerts disparate effects on cardiovascular risk factors. On the one hand, sibutramine may have antiatherogenic activities, as it improves insulin resistance, glucose metabolism, dyslipidemia, and inflammatory markers, with most of these effects resulting from weight loss rather than from an intrinsic effect of the drug. On the other hand, because of its specific mode of action, sibutramine exerts a peripheral sympathomimetic effect, which induces a moderate increase in heart rate and attenuates the reduction in BP attributable to weight loss or even slightly increases BP. It may also prolong the QT interval, an effect that could induce arrhythmias. Because of these complex effects, it is difficult to conclude what the final impact of sibutramine on cardiovascular outcomes might be. Sibutramine has been shown to exert favorable effects on some surrogate cardiovascular endpoints such as reduction of left ventricular hypertrophy and improvement of endothelial dysfunction. A good cardiovascular safety profile was demonstrated in numerous 1- to 2-year controlled trials, in both diabetic and nondiabetic well selected patients, as well as in several observational studies. However, since 2002, several cardiovascular adverse events (hypertension, tachycardia, arrhythmias, and myocardial infarction) have been reported in sibutramine-treated patients. This led to a contraindication of the use of this antiobesity agent in patients with established coronary heart disease, previous stroke, heart failure, or cardiac arrhythmias. SCOUT

  1. Cardiovascular risk profile in burn survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Becky; Younger, John F; Stockton, Kellie; Muller, Michael; Paratz, Jennifer

    2017-11-01

    Burn patients have prolonged derangements in metabolic, endocrine, cardiac and psychosocial systems, potentially impacting on their cardiovascular health. There are no studies on the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) after-burn. The aim of our study was to record lipid values and evaluate CVD risk in adult burn survivors. In a cross-sectional study patients ≥18 years with burn injury between 18-80% total burn surface area (TBSA) from 1998 to 2012 had total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein (LDL), high density lipoprotein (HDL) and triglycerides measured via finger prick. Means were compared to optimal ranges. Multivariate regression models were performed to assess the association of lipids with age, years after-burn and total body surface area % (TBSA). A p value Risk Score (FGCRS) was calculated. Fifty patients were included in the study. Compared to optimal values, patients had low HDL and high triglycerides. Greater %TBSA was associated with statistically significant elevation of triglycerides (p=0.007) and total cholesterol/HDL ratio (p=0.027). The median FGCRS was 3.9% (low) 10-year risk of CVD with 82% of patients in the low-risk category. Patients involved in medium/high level of physical activity had optimal values of HDL, TC/HDL and triglycerides despite the magnitude of TBSA%. Adult burn survivors had alterations in lipid profile proportional to TBSA, which could be modified by exercise, and no increase in overall formally predicted CVD risk in this cross sectional study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk profile modification of energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, B.O.

    1992-01-01

    The commodity futures and swaps markets are thought by some to be the invention of speculators, the bane of the oil business, or possibly something confined to finance departments of major corporations. In actuality, they should be considered more as insurance and can be utilized at the project level to modify the risk profile of a property. In this context, an increased familiarity with them can be useful for an engineer. This paper reports that either futures or swaps can be used to guarantee or modify product prices, an accomplishment very difficult or impossible to duplicate through other means, particularly with such integrity. Participation in futures or swaps does not necessarily maximize cashflow or present worth, it can either guarantee the price, put a minimum price in place or offer a combination of the above. A project or company can be protected for several years from downside price risk using swaps. Not being subject to market price swings substantially reduces the risk of the venture. This can be particularly important if lower product prices would cause unacceptable cashflows or net incomes

  3. Health risk profile of prostitutes in Dublin.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McDonnell, R J

    1998-08-01

    This study examined the health risk profile of prostitutes in Dublin. Clinical records of all 150 new prostitutes who attended a drop-in clinic for prostitutes in Dublin city during the period 1991-1997 were reviewed. Variables examined included: age, use of injectable drugs, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, hepatitis B and C status, presence of sexually transmitted disease (STD), cervical cytology. Results showed the mean age of the women was 32 years. Among those tested, 2.5% were HIV positive, 5% were hepatitis B positive, 8% were hepatitis C positive and 25% had an STD. Almost 8% were injecting drug users (IDU) with higher prevalences of HIV, hepatitis B and C compared with non-IDU (P < 0.001). The clinic has been successful in providing a health-care facility for the specific health needs of this patient cohort.

  4. Spatial Skill Profile of Mathematics Pre-Service Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putri, R. O. E.

    2018-01-01

    This study is aimed to investigate the spatial intelligence of mathematics pre-service teachers and find the best instructional strategy that facilitates this aspect. Data were collected from 35 mathematics pre-service teachers. The Purdue Spatial Visualization Test (PSVT) was used to identify the spatial skill of mathematics pre-service teachers. Statistical analysis indicate that more than 50% of the participants possessed spatial skill in intermediate level, whereas the other were in high and low level of spatial skill. The result also shows that there is a positive correlation between spatial skill and mathematics ability, especially in geometrical problem solving. High spatial skill students tend to have better mathematical performance compare to those in two other levels. Furthermore, qualitative analysis reveals that most students have difficulty in manipulating geometrical objects mentally. This problem mostly appears in intermediate and low-level spatial skill students. The observation revealed that 3-D geometrical figures is the best method that can overcome the mentally manipulation problem and develop the spatial visualization. Computer application can also be used to improve students’ spatial skill.

  5. Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Adrian; Battles, John; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

    2008-01-01

    For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor, Abies magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, and Pinus lambertiana, in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots.In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor, our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana, mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity.Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana, spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor, although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial

  6. Risk profile of the RET A883F germline mutation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Jes Sloth; Habra, Mouhammed Amir; Bassett, John Howard Duncan

    2017-01-01

    the highest to high risk level, although no well-defined risk profile for this mutation exists. Objective: To create a risk profile for the A883F mutation for appropriate classification in the ATA risk levels. Design: Retrospective analysis. Setting: International collaboration. Patients: Included were 13 A...... seems to have a more indolent natural course compared to that of M918T carriers. Our results support the classification of the A883F mutation in the ATA high risk level....

  7. Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

  8. Spatial implications of covariate adjustment on patterns of risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabel, Clive Eric; Wilson, Jeff Gaines; Kingham, Simon

    2007-01-01

    Epidemiological studies that examine the relationship between environmental exposures and health often address other determinants of health that may influence the relationship being studied by adjusting for these factors as covariates. While disease surveillance methods routinely control...... for covariates such as deprivation, there has been limited investigative work on the spatial movement of risk at the intraurban scale due to the adjustment. It is important that the nature of any spatial relocation be well understood as a relocation to areas of increased risk may also introduce additional...... localised factors that influence the exposure-response relationship. This paper examines the spatial patterns of relative risk and clusters of hospitalisations based on an illustrative small-area example from Christchurch, New Zealand. A four-stage test of the spatial relocation effects of covariate...

  9. The spatial profile of visual attention in mental curve tracing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholte, H. S.; Spekreijse, H.; Roelfsema, P. R.

    2001-01-01

    In a curve-tracing task, subjects have to judge whether items are located on a single, continuous curve. Spatially separate segments of such a curve are related to each other through grouping criteria, like collinearity and connectedness. These grouping cues need to be exploited during curve

  10. Spatial variability of heating profiles in windrowed poultry litter

    Science.gov (United States)

    In-house windrow composting of broiler litter has been suggested as a means to reduce microbial populations between flocks. Published time-temperature goals are used to determine the success of the composting process for microbial reductions. Spatial and temporal density of temperature measurement ...

  11. Association of cardiometabolic risk profile with prehypertension accompany hyperhomocysteinaemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huili; Sun, Yuemin; Wang, Xuechun; Si, Quan; Yao, Wei; Wan, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    Study suggested that elevated homocysteine showed a multiplicative effect on cardiovascular diseases in hypertensive subjects. It was reported that elevated homocysteine level was independently associated with increased arterial stiffness in prehypertensives. It remains unclear whether prehypertensives combined with elevated homocysteine have adverse cardiovascular risk factors. We aimed to compare cardiometabolic risk profile between prehypertensives with hyperhomocysteinaemia and those without either condition. Plasma total homocysteine and risk profile were determined among 874 Chinese non-hypertension individuals in Tianjin. They were subdivided into four groups: prehypertension with hyperhomocysteinaemia (≥10 μmol/L), prehypertension with normal homocysteine (risk profile. Strict lipid management and weigh control may be needed in prehypertensives with elevated homocysteine.

  12. Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

    2017-12-01

    This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

  13. Spatial variation of the section sensitivity profile in helical CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsuta, Shoichi; Hanai, Kouzou; Kunii, Takeo; Kimura, Haruki; Imabayashi, Wataru; Muramatsu, Yoshihisa

    1999-01-01

    The section sensitivity profile (SSP) is adequate to express the properties of helical CT images. Although SSP measurement has been performed only at the center of the imaging field, we applied it to off-center positions using a metal bead and controlled tracking technique. The experimental results indicated that SSP curves vary in the imaging field according to the relative position of the x-ray focus. The results were in agreement with computer simulations. (author)

  14. Two-photon equivalent weighting of spatial excimer laser beam profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eva, Eric; Bauer, Harry H.; Metzger, K.; Pfeiffer, A.

    2001-04-01

    Damage in optical materials for semiconductor lithography applications caused by exposure to 248 or 193 nm light is usually two-photon driven, hence it is a nonlinear function of incident intensity. Materials should be tested with flat- topped temporal and spatial laser beam profiles to facilitate interpretation of data, but in reality this is hard to achieve. Sandstrom provided a formula that approximates any given temporal pulse shape with a two- photon equivalent rectangular pulse (Second Symposium on 193 nm Lithography, Colorado Springs 1997). Known as the integral-square pulse duration, this definition has been embraced as an industry standard. Originally faced with the problem of comparing results obtained with pseudo-Gaussian spatial profiles to literature data, we found that a general solution for arbitrarily inhomogeneous spatial beam profiles exists which results in a definition much similar to Sandstrom's. In addition, we proved the validity of our approach in experiments with intentionally altered beam profiles.

  15. Risk Profiles of Children Entering Residential Care: A Cluster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagaman, Jessica L.; Trout, Alexandra L.; Chmelka, M. Beth; Thompson, Ronald W.; Reid, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Children in residential care are a heterogeneous population, presenting various combinations of risks. Existing studies on these children suggest high variability across multiple domains (e.g., academics, behavior). Given this heterogeneity, it is important to begin to identify the combinations and patterns of multiple risks, or risk profiles,…

  16. Risk Management of Large RC Structures within Spatial Information System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Jianjun; Faber, Michael Havbro

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: The present article addresses the development of a spatial information system (SIS), which aims to facilitate risk management of large‐scale concrete structures. The formulation of the SIS is based on ideas developed in the context of indicator‐based risk modeling for concrete structures...... subject to corrosion and geographical information system based risk modeling concerning large‐scale risk management. The term “risk management” here refers in particular to the process of condition assessment and optimization of the inspection and repair activities. The SIS facilitates the storage...... and handling of all relevant information to the risk management. The probabilistic modeling utilized in the condition assessment takes basis in a Bayesian hierarchical modeling philosophy. It facilitates the updating of risks as well as optimizing inspection plans whenever new information about the condition...

  17. Environmental Risk Profiling of the Volta Delta, Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyarko, B. K.; Appeaning-Addo, K.; Amisigo, B.

    2017-12-01

    Volta Delta communities find it difficult to absorb or bear risk at different levels, because of the physical and economic impacts of environmental hazards. In this regards various agencies and organizations have in recent years launched initiatives to measure and identify risk areas with a set of indicators and indices. The theory underpinning this study is concepts of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). The Cox proportional hazards regression model will be used as the model for the risk profile. Finding the optimal level of environmental risk for activities in the Volta Delta considering the risk required, risk capacity and risk tolerance. Using data from different sources, an environmental risk profile was developed for the Volta Delta. The result indicates that risks are distributed across the Delta. However, areas that have government interventions, such as sea defense system and irrigation facilities have less threat. In addition wealthy areas do effectively reduce the threat of any form of disaster.

  18. Contextual Risk Profiles and Trajectories of Adolescent Dating Violence Perpetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, H Luz McNaughton; Foshee, Vangie A; Markiewitz, Nathan; Chen, May S; Ennett, Susan T

    2018-04-09

    Social ecological and developmental system perspectives suggest that interactions among factors within and across multiple contexts (e.g., neighborhood, peer, family) must be considered in explaining dating violence perpetration. Yet, to date, most extant research on dating violence has focused on individual, rather than contextual predictors, and used variable-centered approaches that fail to capture the configurations of factors that may jointly explain involvement in dating violence. The current study used a person-centered approach, latent profile analysis, to identify key configurations (or profiles) of contextual risk and protective factors for dating violence perpetration across the neighborhood, school, friend and family contexts. We then examine the longitudinal associations between these contextual risk profiles, assessed during middle school, and trajectories of psychological and physical dating violence perpetration across grades 8 through 12. Five contextual risk profiles were identified: school, neighborhood, and family risk; school and family risk; school and friend risk; school and neighborhood risk; and low risk. The highest levels of psychological and physical perpetration across grades 8 through 12 were among adolescents in the profile characterized by high levels of school, neighborhood, and family risk. Results suggest that early interventions to reduce violence exposure and increase social regulation across multiple social contexts may be effective in reducing dating violence perpetration across adolescence.

  19. Rising public debt profile in Nigeria: risks and sustainablity issues ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rising public debt profile in Nigeria: risks and sustainablity issues. ... and state governments has echoed new concerns for policy stakeholders in Nigeria. ... the share of concessional loan in external debt stock and develop Public-Private ...

  20. GIS and Geodatabase Disaster Risk for Spatial Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendriawan Nur, Wawan; Kumoro, Yugo; Susilowati, Yuliana

    2018-02-01

    The spatial planning in Indonesia needs to consider the information on the potential disaster. That is because disaster is a serious and detrimental problem that often occurs and causes casualties in some areas in Indonesia as well as inhibits the development. Various models and research were developed to calculate disaster risk assessment. GIS is a system for assembling, storing, analyzing, and displaying geographically referenced disaster. The information can be collaborated with geodatabases to model and to estimate disaster risk in an automated way. It also offers the possibility to customize most of the parameters used in the models. This paper describes a framework which can improve GIS and Geodatabase for the vulnerability, capacity or disaster risk assessment to support the spatial planning activities so they can be more adaptable. By using this framework, GIS application can be used in any location by adjusting variables or calculation methods without changing or rebuilding system from scratch.

  1. System Risk Balancing Profiles: Software Component

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, John C.; Sigal, Burton C.; Gindorf, Tom

    2000-01-01

    The Software QA / V&V guide will be reviewed and updated based on feedback from NASA organizations and others with a vested interest in this area. Hardware, EEE Parts, Reliability, and Systems Safety are a sample of the future guides that will be developed. Cost Estimates, Lessons Learned, Probability of Failure and PACTS (Prevention, Avoidance, Control or Test) are needed to provide a more complete risk management strategy. This approach to risk management is designed to help balance the resources and program content for risk reduction for NASA's changing environment.

  2. Linear chirped slope profile for spatial calibration in slope measuring deflectometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siewert, F., E-mail: frank.siewert@helmholtz-berlin.de; Zeschke, T. [Helmholtz Zentrum Berlin für Materialien und Energie, Institut für Nanometer Optik und Technologie, Albert-Einstein-Str. 15, 12489 Berlin (Germany); Arnold, T.; Paetzelt, H. [Leibnitz Institut für Oberflächen Modifizierung Leipzig e.V., IOM, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Yashchuk, V. V. [Lawerence Berkeley National Laboratory, Advanced Light Source, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, California 94720 (United States)

    2016-05-15

    Slope measuring deflectometry is commonly used by the X-ray optics community to measure the long-spatial-wavelength surface figure error of optical components dedicated to guide and focus X-rays under grazing incidence condition at synchrotron and free electron laser beamlines. The best performing instruments of this kind are capable of absolute accuracy on the level of 30-50 nrad. However, the exact bandwidth of the measurements, determined at the higher spatial frequencies by the instrument’s spatial resolution, or more generally by the instrument’s modulation transfer function (MTF) is hard to determine. An MTF calibration method based on application of a test surface with a one-dimensional (1D) chirped height profile of constant amplitude was suggested in the past. In this work, we propose a new approach to designing the test surfaces with a 2D-chirped topography, specially optimized for MTF characterization of slope measuring instruments. The design of the developed MTF test samples based on the proposed linear chirped slope profiles (LCSPs) is free of the major drawback of the 1D chirped height profiles, where in the slope domain, the amplitude strongly increases with the local spatial frequency of the profile. We provide the details of fabrication of the LCSP samples. The results of first application of the developed test samples to measure the spatial resolution of the BESSY-NOM at different experimental arrangements are also presented and discussed.

  3. Risk Profiling May Improve Lung Cancer Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new modeling study suggests that individualized, risk-based selection of ever-smokers for lung cancer screening may prevent more lung cancer deaths and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of screening compared with current screening recommendations

  4. Spatial distribution of, and risk factors for, Opisthorchis viverrini infection in southern Lao PDR.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armelle Forrer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Opisthorchis viverrini is a food-borne trematode species that might give rise to biliary diseases and the fatal cholangiocarcinoma. In Lao PDR, an estimated 2.5 million individuals are infected with O. viverrini, but epidemiological studies are scarce and the spatial distribution of infection remains to be determined. Our aim was to map the distribution of O. viverrini in southern Lao PDR, identify underlying risk factors, and predict the prevalence of O. viverrini at non-surveyed locations. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional parasitological and questionnaire survey was carried out in 51 villages in Champasack province in the first half of 2007. Data on demography, socioeconomic status, water supply, sanitation, and behavior were combined with remotely sensed environmental data and fed into a geographical information system. Bayesian geostatistical models were employed to identify risk factors and to investigate the spatial pattern of O. viverrini infection. Bayesian kriging was utilized to predict infection risk at non-surveyed locations. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The prevalence of O. viverrini among 3,371 study participants with complete data records was 61.1%. Geostatistical models identified age, Lao Loum ethnic group, educational attainment, occupation (i.e., rice farmer, fisherman, and animal breeder, and unsafe drinking water source as risk factors for infection. History of praziquantel treatment, access to sanitation, and distance to freshwater bodies were found to be protective factors. Spatial patterns of O. viverrini were mainly governed by environmental factors with predictive modeling identifying two different risk profiles: low risk of O. viverrini in the mountains and high risk in the Mekong corridor. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We present the first risk map of O. viverrini infection in Champasack province, which is important for spatial targeting of control efforts. Infection with O. viverrini appears to be strongly associated

  5. The psychosocial profile of adolescent risk of homelessness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bearsley-Smith, Cate A; Bond, Lyndal M; Littlefield, Lyn; Thomas, Lyndal R

    2008-06-01

    To contrast the psychosocial profile of adolescents with risk factors for homelessness, identified using Chamberlain and MacKenzie's self-report scale, compared to the profiles of homeless adolescents. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were conducted contrasting profiles for (a) 137 homeless adolescents, (b) 766 secondary students reporting risk factors for homelessness, and (c) 4,844 students not reporting risks for homelessness. Fourteen percent of a representative population of at-school adolescents, from Victoria, Australia, showed elevated risk of homelessness. These adolescents showed depressive symptoms at least equivalent to homeless adolescents (RR 6.0, 95% CI: 4.9, 7.3, and RR 3.5, 95% CI: 2.1, 5.8, respectively). In multivariate analyses, homeless and at risk adolescents reported equivalent levels of family conflict, early problem behaviour and low opportunities and rewards for family involvement. Compared to adolescents not at risk, at risk adolescents were more likely to be female and to show poorer social skills/assertiveness and depressive symptoms. Compared to at risk adolescents, homeless adolescents showed additional family, school, peer and individual risks, but lower depressive symptomatology. The findings highlight the potential we have to quickly and simply detect adolescents showing significant risk of homelessness. This sizable minority of adolescents report risks often equivalent to homeless adolescents. It is hoped that stakeholders working with young people will utilise this screening potential to identify and intervene effectively with this significant subpopulation of youth, and their families, while they are still at home and school.

  6. Analysis on the Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Maritime traffic profile in Western Taiwan Strait

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jinhai, C; Feng, L; Guojun, P

    2014-01-01

    The mathematical statistics and spatial analyses for merchant vessels navigating in Western Taiwan Strait are used to unravel potential spatial heterogeneity based on ship tracking records derived from China's coastal Automatic Identification System shore-based network from October 2011 to September 2012. Two maritime traffic profile's indices, composition of vessels, weighted frequency of ship transits, are proposed. Based on the two indices, the most risky hotspots or areas in the Strait are detected by comparing spatial distribution of maritime traffic volume of fishing boat, container ship, crude oil tanker and all ships exclude fishing boats

  7. Sun Protection Motivational Stages and Behavior: Skin Cancer Risk Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagoto, Sherry L.; McChargue, Dennis E.; Schneider, Kristin; Cook, Jessica Werth

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To create skin cancer risk profiles that could be used to predict sun protection among Midwest beachgoers. Method: Cluster analysis was used with study participants (N=239), who provided information about sun protection motivation and behavior, perceived risk, burn potential, and tan importance. Participants were clustered according to…

  8. Problems of job-profile for risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Compes, P.C.

    1984-01-01

    There is no job-profile for the risk analyst. It would be his job to detect and classify accident risks, i.e. make a diagnosis and type rationalization, and to subsequently analyse them with respect to their frequency and probability as well as to the extent of damage caused. (DG) [de

  9. Risk profiling and screening for colorectal cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegeman, I.

    2013-01-01

    The studies included in this thesis address a number of topics concerning risk stratification and differentiation in health care. As health care costs are increasing and the urge for prevention is rising, differentiating in the provision of health care may be one of the options for sustaining the

  10. A simple data base for identification of risk profiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munganahalli, D.

    1996-12-31

    Sedco Forex is a drilling contractor that operates approximately 80 rigs on land and offshore worldwide. The HSE management system developed by Sedco Forex is an effort to prevent accidents and minimize losses. An integral part of the HSE management system is establishing risk profiles and thereby minimizing risk and reducing loss exposures. Risk profiles are established based on accident reports, potential accident reports and other risk identification reports (RIR) like the Du Pont STOP system. A rig could fill in as many as 30 accident reports, 30 potential accident reports and 500 STOP cards each year. Statistics are important for an HSE management system, since they are indicators of success or failure of HSE systems. It is however difficult to establish risk profiles based on statistical information, unless tools are available at the rig site to aid with the analysis. Risk profiles are then used to identify important areas in the operation that may require specific attention to minimize the loss exposure. Programs to address the loss exposure can then be identified and implemented with either a local or corporate approach. In January 1995, Sedco Forex implemented a uniform HSE Database on all the rigs worldwide. In one year companywide, the HSE database would contain information on approximately 500 accident and potential accident reports, and 10,000 STOP cards. This paper demonstrates the salient features of the database and describes how it has helped in establishing key risk profiles. It also shows a recent example of how risk profiles have been established at the corporate level and used to identify the key contributing factors to hands and finger injuries. Based on this information, a campaign was launched to minimize the frequency of occurrence and associated loss attributed to hands and fingers accidents.

  11. Integrated spatial assessment of wind erosion risk in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Pásztor

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Wind erosion susceptibility of Hungarian soils was mapped on the national level integrating three factors of the complex phenomenon of deflation (physical soil features, wind characteristics, and land use and land cover. Results of wind tunnel experiments on erodibility of representative soil samples were used for the parametrization of a countrywide map of soil texture compiled for the upper 5 cm layer of soil, which resulted in a map representing threshold wind velocity exceedance. Average wind velocity was spatially estimated with 0.5′ resolution using the Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenised Data Basis (MISH method elaborated for the spatial interpolation of surface meteorological elements. The probability of threshold wind velocity exceedance was determined based on values predicted by the soil texture map at the grid locations. Ratio values were further interpolated to a finer 1 ha resolution using sand and silt content of the uppermost (0–5 cm layer of soil as spatial co-variables. Land cover was also taken into account, excluding areas that are not relevant to wind erosion (forests, water bodies, settlements, etc., to spatially assess the risk of wind erosion. According to the resulting map of wind erosion susceptibility, about 10 % of the total area of Hungary can be identified as susceptible to wind erosion. The map gives more detailed insight into the spatial distribution of wind-affected areas in Hungary compared to previous studies.

  12. Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatem Andrew J

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS and Geographical Information Systems (GIS in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing

  13. Effectiveness of Neuromuscular Training Based on the Neuromuscular Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewett, Timothy E; Ford, Kevin R; Xu, Yingying Y; Khoury, Jane; Myer, Gregory D

    2017-07-01

    The effects of targeted neuromuscular training (TNMT) on movement biomechanics associated with the risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are currently unknown. Purpose/Hypotheses: To determine the effectiveness of TNMT specifically designed to increase trunk control and hip strength. The hypotheses were that (1) TNMT would decrease biomechanical and neuromuscular factors related to an increased ACL injury risk and (2) TNMT would decrease these biomechanical and neuromuscular factors to a greater extent in athletes identified as being at a high risk for future ACL injuries. Controlled laboratory study. Female athletes who participated in jumping, cutting, and pivoting sports underwent 3-dimensional biomechanical testing before the season and after completing TNMT. During testing, athletes performed 3 different types of tasks: (1) drop vertical jump, (2) single-leg drop, and (3) single-leg cross drop. Analysis of covariance was used to examine the treatment effects of TNMT designed to enhance core and hip strength on biomechanical and neuromuscular characteristics. Differences were also evaluated by risk profile. Differences were considered statistically significant at P risk before the intervention (risk profile III) had a more significant treatment effect of TNMT than low-risk groups (risk profiles I and II). TNMT significantly improved proximal biomechanics, including increased hip external rotation moments and moment impulses, increased peak trunk flexion, and decreased peak trunk extension. TNMT that focuses exclusively on proximal leg and trunk risk factors is not, however, adequate to induce significant changes in frontal-plane knee loading. Biomechanical changes varied across the risk profile groups, with higher risk groups exhibiting greater improvements in their biomechanics.

  14. Metabolite profiles and the risk of developing diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Thomas J; Larson, Martin G; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Cheng, Susan; Rhee, Eugene P; McCabe, Elizabeth; Lewis, Gregory D; Fox, Caroline S; Jacques, Paul F; Fernandez, Céline; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Carr, Stephen A; Mootha, Vamsi K; Florez, Jose C; Souza, Amanda; Melander, Olle; Clish, Clary B; Gerszten, Robert E

    2011-04-01

    Emerging technologies allow the high-throughput profiling of metabolic status from a blood specimen (metabolomics). We investigated whether metabolite profiles could predict the development of diabetes. Among 2,422 normoglycemic individuals followed for 12 years, 201 developed diabetes. Amino acids, amines and other polar metabolites were profiled in baseline specimens by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS). Cases and controls were matched for age, body mass index and fasting glucose. Five branched-chain and aromatic amino acids had highly significant associations with future diabetes: isoleucine, leucine, valine, tyrosine and phenylalanine. A combination of three amino acids predicted future diabetes (with a more than fivefold higher risk for individuals in top quartile). The results were replicated in an independent, prospective cohort. These findings underscore the potential key role of amino acid metabolism early in the pathogenesis of diabetes and suggest that amino acid profiles could aid in diabetes risk assessment.

  15. Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-01-01

    A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

  16. Metabolic Risk Profile and Cancer in Korean Men and Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Seulki; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Kim, Dongwoo; Kim, A-Rim; Kim, Eun-Jung; Seo, Hye-Young

    2016-05-01

    Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease. Associations between metabolic syndrome and several types of cancer have recently been documented. We analyzed the sample cohort data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service from 2002, with a follow-up period extending to 2013. The cohort data included 99 565 individuals who participated in the health examination program and whose data were therefore present in the cohort database. The metabolic risk profile of each participant was assessed based on obesity, high serum glucose and total cholesterol levels, and high blood pressure. The occurrence of cancer was identified using Korean National Health Insurance claims data. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age group, smoking status, alcohol intake, and regular exercise. A total of 5937 cases of cancer occurred during a mean follow-up period of 10.4 years. In men with a high-risk metabolic profile, the risk of colon cancer was elevated (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.71). In women, a high-risk metabolic profile was associated with a significantly increased risk of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (HR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.24 to 3.42). Non-significantly increased risks were observed in men for pharynx, larynx, rectum, and kidney cancer, and in women for colon, liver, breast, and ovarian cancer. The findings of this study support the previously suggested association between metabolic syndrome and the risk of several cancers. A high-risk metabolic profile may be an important risk factor for colon cancer in Korean men and gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in Korean women.

  17. Risk factor profile in retinal detachment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azad Raj

    1988-01-01

    Full Text Available 150 cases of retinal detachment comprising 50 patients each of bilateral retinal detachment, unilateral retinal detachment without any retinal lesions in the fellow eve and unilateral retinal detachment with retinal lesions in the fellow eye were studied and the various associated risk factors were statistically analysed. The findings are discussed in relation to their aetiological and prognostic significance in the different types of retinal detachment. Based on these observations certain guidelines are offered which may be of value in decision making, in prophylactic detachment surgery. Tractional breaks in the superior temporal quadrant especially when symptomatic. mandate prophylactic treatment. Urgency is enhanced it′ the patient is aphakic. Associated myopia adds to the urgency. The higher incidence of initial right e′ e involvement in all groups suggests a vascular original possibly ischaemic.

  18. A New Method for Spatial Health Risk Assessment of Pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Sakizadeh*

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The area of contaminated lands exposed to the health risk of environmental pollutants is a matter of argument. In this study, a new method was developed to estimate the amount of area that is exposed to higher than normal levels of Cr, Mn, and V. Methods: Overall, 170 soil samples were collected from the upper 10 cm of soil in an arid area in central part of Iran in Semnan Province. The values of Cr, Mn, and V were detected by ICP-OES technique. A geostatistical method known as sequential Gaussian co-simulation was applied to consider the spatial risk of these toxic elements. Results: The moderate spatial dependence of Cr indicates the contribution of both intrinsic and extrinsic factor to the levels of this heavy metal in the study area, whereas, Mn and V can be attributed to intrinsic factors (such as lithology. There has not been any significant influence due to agricultural practices on the Cr values in the region. The surface of contaminated area for manganese, produced by risk curve on surface method, was higher than chromium and vanadium. Conclusion: The produced risk curves as rendered in this study can be adopted in similar studies to help managers to estimate the total area that requires cleanup action.

  19. Spatial interactions database development for effective probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liming, J. K.; Dunn, R. F.

    2008-01-01

    In preparation for a subsequent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) fire risk analysis update, the STP Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) is updating its spatial interactions database (SID). This work is being performed to support updating the spatial interactions analysis (SIA) initially performed for the original South Texas Project Electric Generating Station (STPEGS) probabilistic safely assessment (PSA) and updated in the STPEGS Level 2 PSA and IPE Report. S/A is a large-scope screening analysis performed for nuclear power plant PRA that serves as a prerequisite basis for more detailed location-dependent, hazard-spec analyses in the PRA, such as fire risk analysis, flooding risk analysis, etc. SIA is required to support the 'completeness' argument for the PRA scope. The objectives of the current SID development effort are to update the spatial interactions analysis data, to the greatest degree practical, to be consistent with the following: the as-built plant as of December 31, 2007 the in-effect STPNOC STPEGS Units 1 and 2 PRA the current technology and intent of NUREG/CR-6850 guidance for lire risk analysis database support the requirements for PRA SIA, including fire and flooding risk analysis, established by NRC Regulatory Guide 1.200 and the ASME PRA Standard (ASME RA-S-2002 updated through ASME RA-Sc-2007,) This paper presents the approach and methodology for state-of-the-art SID development and applications, including an overview of the SIA process for nuclear power plant PRA. The paper shows how current relational database technology and existing, conventional station information sources can be employed to collect, process, and analyze spatial interactions data for the plant in an effective and efficient manner to meet the often challenging requirements of industry guidelines and standards such as NUREG/CR-6850, NRC Regulatory Guide 1.200, and ASME RA-S-2002 (updated through ASME RA-Sc 2007). This paper includes tables and figures illustrating how SIA

  20. Risk profiles and corporate social responsibility for socially disadvantaged groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serbanescu Cosmin

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Developing a suitable mechanism to stimulate the effective redeployment of capital to social activities can be designed using the corporate social responsibility (CSR concept. Informational asymmetry about the real state of social risks influences the effectiveness of allocations in social protection. Reducing information asymmetries can be achieved by providing the corporations with socially determined risk profiles based on predetermined patterns. Offering concrete lines of action following the risk profiles approach which to base investment decisions of companies in CSR can maximize the results of such a mechanism. In a previous study the authors have developed a theoretical model for determining the poverty risk profile. This study aims to present the practical application of the theoretical model and to provide comments on some errors. Hence, the authors analyzed Buzau county municipalities in presenting the highest risk level determined by the theoretical model and related causes and performed an impact assessment of an investment in CSR based on a model. Specifically, the authors evaluated the impact of reducing the risk of poverty for a suitable investment in CSR. In the second part of the study, the authors analyzed the types of errors that can be found in the municipalities risk profile model due to the granularity of the data. Thus, for the error of over-inclusion, the authors assessed social allocative efficiency at the community level using benchmarking analysis, Data Envelopment respectively and analyzed the data of the under-inclusion error in Buzau county villages. The paper aims to analyze the relative limits on quantitative models and risk of poverty and the practical implementation of these types of models in the development of corporate social responsibility. The study provides also a useful tool which can be made available to companies in order to increase the vulnerable groups’ life quality and the satisfaction of

  1. The clinical profile of high-risk mentally disordered offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiend, Jenny; Freestone, Mark; Vazquez-Montes, Maria; Holland, Josephine; Burns, Tom

    2013-07-01

    High-risk mentally disordered offenders present a diverse array of clinical characteristics. To contain and effectively treat this heterogeneous population requires a full understanding of the group's clinical profile. This study aimed to identify and validate clusters of clinically coherent profiles within one high-risk mentally disordered population in the UK. Latent class analysis (a statistical technique to identify clustering of variance from a set of categorical variables) was applied to 174 cases using clinical diagnostic information to identify the most parsimonious model of best fit. Validity analyses were performed. Three identified classes were a 'delinquent' group (n = 119) characterised by poor educational history, strong criminal careers and high recidivism risk; a 'primary psychopathy' group (n = 38) characterised by good educational profiles and homicide offences and an 'expressive psychopathy' group (n = 17) presenting the lowest risk and characterised by more special educational needs and sexual offences. Individuals classed as high-risk mentally disordered offenders can be loosely segregated into three discrete subtypes: 'delinquent', 'psychopathic' or 'expressive psychopathic', respectively. These groups represent different levels of risk to society and reflect differing treatment needs.

  2. Estimating Bird / Aircraft Collision Probabilities and Risk Utilizing Spatial Poisson Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-10

    ESTIMATING BIRD/AIRCRAFT COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE...AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE RESEARCH PAPER Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences...COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES Brady J. Vaira, BS, MS Major, USAF Approved

  3. Ohio Financial Services and Risk Management. Technical Competency Profile (TCP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Gayl M.; Wilson, Nick; Mangini, Rick

    This document describes the essential competencies from secondary through post-secondary associate degree programs for a career in financial services and risk management. Ohio College Tech Prep Program standards are described, and a key to profile codes is provided. Sample occupations in this career area, such as financial accountant, loan…

  4. Risk Factors and Bacterial Profile of Suspected Neonatal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Neonatal septicaemia is a common cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries and a major health concern. The aim of this study is to evaluate the bacterial profile, antibiotics susceptibility pattern and associated risk factors of suspected septicaemia in neonates in this locality. Five hundred and forty seven ...

  5. Associations between Peer Harassment and School Risk and Protection Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gloppen, Kari M.; Gower, Amy L.; McMorris, Barbara J.; Eisenberg, Marla E.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Peer harassment can have serious implications for students' success and well-being, and prevention programs need to consider the school context. This study aimed to: (1) identify groups of similar schools based on their risk and protective factors and demographic characteristics and (2) examine associations between school profiles and…

  6. Production of flat KrF laser focal profiles with echelon free-induced spatial incoherence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deniz, A.V.; Obenschain, S.P.; Pronko, M.; Lehmberg, R.H.

    1990-01-01

    High gain direct-drive laser fusion requires a uniform spherical pellet implosion. This in turn requires that the focal profile of each driving beam be sufficiently uniform and controlled. Several methods for producing uniform beams have been proposed. One promising technique, echelon free-induced spatial incoherence (ISI), consists of propagating a broadband spatially incoherent beam through an entire laser system. This technique will be used in the Nike laser, which is a twenty-four- to forty-eight-beam multikilojoule KrF system currently under construction at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). This paper presents measurements of focal profiles of laser light smoothed by echelon free ISI from a KrF oscillator and amplifier. The initial implementation is shown

  7. Spatial and Single-Cell Transcriptional Profiling Identifies Functionally Distinct Human Dermal Fibroblast Subpopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philippeos, Christina; Telerman, Stephanie B; Oulès, Bénédicte; Pisco, Angela O; Shaw, Tanya J; Elgueta, Raul; Lombardi, Giovanna; Driskell, Ryan R; Soldin, Mark; Lynch, Magnus D; Watt, Fiona M

    2018-04-01

    Previous studies have shown that mouse dermis is composed of functionally distinct fibroblast lineages. To explore the extent of fibroblast heterogeneity in human skin, we used a combination of comparative spatial transcriptional profiling of human and mouse dermis and single-cell transcriptional profiling of human dermal fibroblasts. We show that there are at least four distinct fibroblast populations in adult human skin, not all of which are spatially segregated. We define markers permitting their isolation and show that although marker expression is lost in culture, different fibroblast subpopulations retain distinct functionality in terms of Wnt signaling, responsiveness to IFN-γ, and ability to support human epidermal reconstitution when introduced into decellularized dermis. These findings suggest that ex vivo expansion or in vivo ablation of specific fibroblast subpopulations may have therapeutic applications in wound healing and diseases characterized by excessive fibrosis. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Reconstruction and analysis of temperature and density spatial profiles inertial confinement fusion implosion cores

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mancini, R. C.

    2007-01-01

    We discuss several methods for the extraction of temperature and density spatial profiles in inertial confinement fusion implosion cores based on the analysis of the x-ray emission from spectroscopic tracers added to the deuterium fuel. The ideas rely on (1) detailed spectral models that take into account collisional-radiative atomic kinetics, Stark broadened line shapes, and radiation transport calculations, (2) the availability of narrow-band, gated pinhole and slit x-ray images, and space-resolved line spectra of the core, and (3) several data analysis and reconstruction methods that include a multi-objective search and optimization technique based on a novel application of Pareto genetic algorithms to plasma spectroscopy. The spectroscopic analysis yields the spatial profiles of temperature and density in the core at the collapse of the implosion, and also the extent of shell material mixing into the core. Results are illustrated with data recorded in implosion experiments driven by the OMEGA and Z facilities

  9. Development of temperature profile sensor at high temporal and spatial resolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takiguchi, Hiroki; Furuya, Masahiro; Arai, Takahiro

    2017-01-01

    In order to quantify thermo-physical flow field for the industrial applications such as nuclear and chemical reactors, high temporal and spatial measurements for temperature, pressure, phase velocity, viscosity and so on are required to validate computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and subchannel analyses. The paper proposes a novel temperature profile sensor, which can acquire temperature distribution in water at high temporal (a millisecond) and spatial (millimeter) resolutions. The devised sensor acquires electric conductance between transmitter and receiver wires, which is a function of temperature. The sensor comprise wire mesh structure for multipoint and simultaneous temperature measurement in water, which indicated that three-dimensional temperature distribution can be detected in flexible resolutions. For the demonstration of the principle, temperature profile in water was estimated according to pre-determined temperature calibration line against time-averaged impedance. The 16×16 grid sensor visualized fast and multi-dimensional mixing process of a hot water jet into a cold water pool. (author)

  10. The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles. Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Carla; DuBois, David L.; Grossman, Jean Baldwin

    2013-01-01

    "The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles" presents findings from the first large-scale study to examine how the levels and types of risk youth face may influence their relationships with program-assigned mentors and the benefits they derive from these relationships. The study looked…

  11. The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Carla; DuBois, David L.; Grossman, Jean Baldwin

    2013-01-01

    "The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles" presents findings from the first large-scale study to examine how the levels and types of risk youth face may influence their relationships with program-assigned mentors and the benefits they derive from these relationships. The study looked…

  12. The profile of quantitative risk indicators in Krsko NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vrbanic, I.; Basic, I.; Bilic-Zabric, T.; Spiler, J.

    2004-01-01

    During the past decade strong initiative was observed which was aimed at incorporating information on risk into various aspects of operation of nuclear power plants. The initiative was observable in activities carried out by regulators as well as utilities and industry. It resulted in establishing the process, or procedure, which is often referred to as integrated decision making or risk informed decision making. In this process, engineering analyses and evaluations that are usually termed traditional and that rely on considerations of safety margins and defense in depth are supplemented by quantitative indicators of risk. Throughout the process, the plant risk was most commonly expressed in terms of likelihood of events involving damage to the reactor core and events with radiological releases to the environment. These became two commonly used quantitative indicators or metrics of plant risk (or, reciprocally, plant safety). They were evaluated for their magnitude (e.g. the expected number of events per specified time interval), as well as their profile (e.g. the types of contributing events). The information for quantitative risk indicators (to be used in risk informing process) is obtained from plant's probabilistic safety analyses or analyses of hazards. It is dependable on issues such as availability of input data or quality of model or analysis. Nuclear power plant Krsko has recently performed Periodic Safety Review, which was a good opportunity to evaluate and integrate the plant specific information on quantitative plant risk indicators and their profile. The paper discusses some aspects of quantitative plant risk profile and its perception.(author)

  13. Spatial profiling of ion and neutral excitation in noble gas electron cyclotron resonance plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhoades, R.L.; Gorbatkin, S.M.

    1994-01-01

    Optical emission from neutrals and ions of several noble gases has been profiled in an electron cyclotron resonance plasma system. In argon plasmas with a net microwave power of 750 W, the neutral (696.5-nm) and ion (488-nm) emission profiles are slightly center peaked at 0.32 mTorr and gradually shift to a hollow appearance at 2.5 mTorr. Neon profiles show a similar trend from 2.5 to 10.0 mTorr. For the noble gases, transition pressure scales with the ionization potential of the gas, which is consistent with neutral depletion. Studies of noble gas mixtures, however, indicate that neutral depletion is not always dominant in the formation of hollow profiles. For Kr/Ar, Ar/Ne, and Ne/He plasmas, the majority gas tends to set the overall shape of the profile at any given pressure. For the conditions of the current system, plasma density appears to be more dominant than electron temperature in the formation of hollow profiles. The general method described is also a straightforward, inexpensive technique for measuring the spatial distribution of power deposited in plasmas, particularly where absolute scale can be calibrated by some other means

  14. A new method for measuring coronary artery diameters with CT spatial profile curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimamoto, Ryoichi; Suzuki, Jun-ichi; Yamazaki, Tadashi; Tsuji, Taeko; Ohmoto, Yuki; Morita, Toshihiro; Yamashita, Hiroshi; Honye, Junko; Nagai, Ryozo; Akahane, Masaaki; Ohtomo, Kuni

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: Coronary artery vascular edge recognition on computed tomography (CT) angiograms is influenced by window parameters. A noninvasive method for vascular edge recognition independent of window setting with use of multi-detector row CT was contrived and its feasibility and accuracy were estimated by intravascular ultrasound (IVUS). Methods: Multi-detector row CT was performed to obtain 29 CT spatial profile curves by setting a line cursor across short-axis coronary angiograms processed by multi-planar reconstruction. IVUS was also performed to determine the reference coronary diameter. IVUS diameter was fitted horizontally between two points on the upward and downward slopes of the profile curves and Hounsfield number was measured at the fitted level to test seven candidate indexes for definition of intravascular coronary diameter. The best index from the curves should show the best agreement with IVUS diameter. Results: Of the seven candidates the agreement was the best (agreement: 16 ± 11%) when the two ratios of Hounsfield number at the level of IVUS diameter over that at the peak on the profile curves were used with water and with fat as the background tissue. These edge definitions were achieved by cutting the horizontal distance by the curves at the level defined by the ratio of 0.41 for water background and 0.57 for fat background. Conclusions: Vascular edge recognition of the coronary artery with CT spatial profile curves was feasible and the contrived method could define the coronary diameter with reasonable agreement

  15. An examination of the spatial variability of CO2 in the profile of managed forest soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Black, M.; Kellman, L.; Beltrami, H.

    2005-01-01

    Soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) profiles are typically used in soil-gas exchange studies. Although surface flux measuring methods may be more efficient for deriving surface soil CO 2 exchange budgets, they do not provide enough information about the generation of gas through depth. This poses a challenge in quantifying the CO 2 generated from different zones and soil carbon pools through time. The combination of subsurface concentration profiles and estimates of soil diffusivity reveal where CO 2 is being generated in the soil. This combined approach offers greater awareness into processes controlling CO 2 production in soils through depth, and clarifies how soil CO 2 exchange processes in these ecosystems can be changed by management regimes and climate change. Although information about spatial variability in subsurface concentrations within forested soils is limited, it is assumed to be high because of the high spatial variability in soil CO 2 flux estimates and the large variation in vegetation distribution and topography within sites. In this study, the soil CO 2 profile was monitored during the fall of 2004 at depths of 0, 5, 20 and 35 cm at 10 microsites of a clear-cut and an 80 year old intact mixed forest in Atlantic Canada. Microsites were about 10 meters apart and represented a range of microtopographical conditions that typically encompass extremes in soil CO 2 profile patterns. Preliminary results reveal predictable patterns in concentration profiles through depth, and increasing CO 2 concentration with depth, consistent with a large soil source of CO 2 . The significant variability in the soil carbon profile between microsites in the clear-cut and intact forest sites will be investigated to determine if distinct microsite patterns can be identified. The feasibility of using this method for providing process-based versus soil C exchange budgeting information at forested sites will also be examined

  16. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  17. Temporal and spatial variability in thalweg profiles of a gravel-bed river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madej, Mary Ann

    1999-01-01

    This study used successive longitudinal thalweg profiles in gravel-bed rivers to monitor changes in bed topography following floods and associated large sediment inputs. Variations in channel bed elevations, distributions of residual water depths, percentage of channel length occupied by riffles, and a spatial autocorrelation coefficient (Moran's I) were used to quantify changes in morphological diversity and spatial structure in Redwood Creek basin, northwestern California. Bed topography in Redwood Creek and its major tributaries consists primarily of a series of pools and riffles. The size, frequency and spatial distribution of the pools and riffles have changed significantly during the past 20 years. Following large floods and high sediment input in Redwood Creek and its tributaries in 1975, variation in channel bed elevations was low and the percentage of the channel length occupied by riffles was high. Over the next 20 years, variation in bed elevations increased while the length of channel occupied by riffles decreased. An index [(standard deviation of residual water depth/bankfull depth) × 100] was developed to compare variations in bed elevation over a range of stream sizes, with a higher index being indicative of greater morphological diversity. Spatial autocorrelation in the bed elevation data was apparent at both fine and coarse scales in many of the thalweg profiles and the observed spatial pattern of bed elevations was found to be related to the dominant channel material and the time since disturbance. River reaches in which forced pools dominated, and in which large woody debris and bed particles could not be easily mobilized, exhibited a random distribution of bed elevations. In contrast, in reaches where alternate bars dominated, and both wood and gravel were readily transported, regularly spaced bed topography developed at a spacing that increased with time since disturbance. This pattern of regularly spaced bed features was reversed

  18. Risk Profile of Symptomatic Lacunar Stroke Versus Nonlobar Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morotti, Andrea; Paciaroni, Maurizio; Zini, Andrea; Silvestrelli, Giorgio; Del Zotto, Elisabetta; Caso, Valeria; Dell'Acqua, Maria Luisa; Simone, Anna Maria; Lanari, Alessia; Costa, Paolo; Poli, Loris; De Giuli, Valeria; Gamba, Massimo; Ciccone, Alfonso; Ritelli, Marco; Di Castelnuovo, Augusto; Iacoviello, Licia; Colombi, Marina; Agnelli, Giancarlo; Grassi, Mario; de Gaetano, Giovanni; Padovani, Alessandro; Pezzini, Alessandro

    2016-08-01

    Although lacunar stroke (LS) and deep intracerebral hemorrhage (dICH) represent acute manifestations of the same pathological process involving cerebral small vessels (small vessel disease), it remains unclear what factors predispose to one phenotype rather than the other at individual level. Consecutive patients with either acute symptomatic LS or dICH were prospectively enrolled as part of a multicenter Italian study. We compared the risk factor profile of the 2 subgroups using multivariable logistic regression. During a time course of 9.5 years, 1931 subjects (1434 LS and 497 dICH; mean age, 71.3±13.3 years; males, 55.5%) qualified for the analysis. Current smoking was associated with LS (odds ratio [OR], 2.17; Prisk factor profile of dICH differs from that associated with LS. This might be used for disease risk stratification at individual level. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  19. Use of an ecologically relevant modelling approach to improve remote sensing-based schistosomiasis risk profiling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Walz

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Schistosomiasis is a widespread water-based disease that puts close to 800 million people at risk of infection with more than 250 million infected, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and the frequency, duration and extent of human bodies exposed to infested water sources during human water contact. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. Since schistosomiasis risk profiling based on remote sensing data inherits a conceptual drawback if school-based disease prevalence data are directly related to the remote sensing measurements extracted at the location of the school, because the disease transmission usually does not exactly occur at the school, we took the local environment around the schools into account by explicitly linking ecologically relevant environmental information of potential disease transmission sites to survey measurements of disease prevalence. Our models were validated at two sites with different landscapes in Côte d’Ivoire using high- and moderateresolution remote sensing data based on random forest and partial least squares regression. We found that the ecologically relevant modelling approach explained up to 70% of the variation in Schistosoma infection prevalence and performed better compared to a purely pixelbased modelling approach. Furthermore, our study showed that model performance increased as a function of enlarging the school catchment area, confirming the hypothesis that suitable environments for schistosomiasis transmission rarely occur at the location of survey measurements.

  20. Metabolic Syndrome Risk Profiles Among African American Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Stephanie L.; Lai, Betty S.; Brancati, Frederick L.; Golden, Sherita H.; Hill-Briggs, Felicia

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Although African American adolescents have the highest prevalence of obesity, they have the lowest prevalence of metabolic syndrome across all definitions used in previous research. To address this paradox, we sought to develop a model of the metabolic syndrome specific to African American adolescents. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2003–2010) of 822 nonpregnant, nondiabetic, African American adolescents (45% girls; aged 12 to 17 years) who underwent physical examinations and fasted at least 8 h were analyzed. We conducted a confirmatory factor analysis to model metabolic syndrome and then used latent profile analysis to identify metabolic syndrome risk groups among African American adolescents. We compared the risk groups on probability of prediabetes. RESULTS The best-fitting metabolic syndrome model consisted of waist circumference, fasting insulin, HDL, and systolic blood pressure. We identified three metabolic syndrome risk groups: low, moderate, and high risk (19% boys; 16% girls). Thirty-five percent of both boys and girls in the high-risk groups had prediabetes, a significantly higher prevalence compared with boys and girls in the low-risk groups. Among adolescents with BMI higher than the 85th percentile, 48 and 36% of boys and girls, respectively, were in the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS Our findings provide a plausible model of the metabolic syndrome specific to African American adolescents. Based on this model, approximately 19 and 16% of African American boys and girls, respectively, are at high risk for having the metabolic syndrome. PMID:23093663

  1. Symmetry-protected zero-mode laser with a tunable spatial profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Li

    Majorana zero modes in condense matter systems have attracted considerable interest in topological quantum computation. In contrast, while robust zero modes have been observed in various photonic lattices, it remains an open question whether they can be used for the same purpose. To advance significantly the state-of-the-art in zero-mode photonics, new inspirations are needed for a better design and control of photonic systems. Using the zero modes protected by non-Hermitian particle-hole symmetry in a photonic lattice and the spatial degrees of freedom they offer, we propose a single-mode, fixed-frequency, and spatially tunable zero-mode laser. The system does not need to have zero modes before a localized pump is applied; they are created by the spontaneous restoration of particle-hole symmetry. By modifying this process using different pump configurations, we present a versatile way to tune the spatial profile of our zero-mode laser, with its lasing frequency pinned at the zero energy. Such a zero-mode laser may find applications in telecommunication, where spatial encoding is held by some to be last frontier of signal processing. This project is supported by the NSF under Grant No. DMR-1506987.

  2. Spatial profile of thermoelectric effects during Peltier pulsing in Bi and Bi/MnBi eutectic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silberstein, R. P.; Larson, D. J., Jr.

    1987-01-01

    The spatial profile of the thermal transients that occur during and following the current pulsing associated with Peltier Interface Demarcation during directional solidification is studied. Results for pure Bi are presented in detail and compared with corresponding results for the Bi/MnBi eutectic. Significant thermal transients occur throughout the sample that can be accounted for by the Peltier effect, the Thomson effect, and Joule heating. These effects are separated and their behavior is studied as a function of time, current density, and position with respect to the solid/liquid interface.

  3. Spatial radiation profiles in the ASDEX Upgrade divertor for detached plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wenzel, U.; Thoma, A.; Dux, R.; Fuchs, C.; Herrmann, A.; Hirsch, S.; Kallenbach, A.; Kastelewicz, H.; Laux, M.; Mast, F.; Napiontek, B.

    1997-01-01

    In this paper we describe impurity line emission measurements in the divertor of ASDEX Upgrade during high power neutral beam heated discharges. We focus on detached conditions where the dominating part of the radiation comes from the X-point region. Spatially resolved line emission in the VUV and visible spectral region of the intrinsic carbon and additionally puffed impurities (neon and nitrogen) is presented. A simple interpretation of the line emission profiles is given and they are also compared to the results of bolometry. (orig.)

  4. Digital Elevation Profile: A Complex Tool for the Spatial Analysis of Hiking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura TÎRLĂ

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the current attributions of mountain geomorphology is to provide information for tourism purposes, such as the spatial analysis of hiking trails. Therefore, geomorphic tools are indispensable for terrain analyses. Elevation profile is one of the most adequate tools for assessing the morphometric patterns of the hiking trails. In this study we tested several applications in order to manage raw data, create profile graphs and obtain the morphometric parameters of five hiking trails in the Căpățânii Mountains (South Carpathians, Romania. Different data complexity was explored: distance, elevation, cumulative gain or loss, slope etc. Furthermore, a comparative morphometric analysis was performed in order to emphasize the multiple possibilities provided by the elevation profile. Results show that GPS Visualizer, Geocontext and in some manner Google Earth are the most adequate applications that provide high-quality elevation profiles and detailed data, with multiple additional functions, according to user's needs. The applied tools and techniques are very useful for mountain route planning, elaborating mountain guides, enhancing knowledge about specific trails or routes, or assessing the landscape and tourism value of a mountain area.

  5. The association between the activity profile and cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddison, Ralph; Jiang, Yannan; Foley, Louise; Scragg, Robert; Direito, Artur; Olds, Timothy

    2016-08-01

    This study sought to better understand the interrelationships between physical activity and sedentary behaviour and the relationship to risk of cardiovascular disease (CVDR) in adults aged 30-75 years. Cross-sectional. Data from two-year waves (2003-2004 and 2005-2006) of the National Health and Nutritional Examination survey were analysed in 2014. Accelerometer-derived time and proportion of time spent sedentary and on moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were calculated to generate four activity profiles based on cut-points to define low and high levels for the respective behaviours. Using health outcome data, CVDR was calculated for each person. Weighted multiple linear regression models were used to evaluate the predicted effects of sedentary and physical activity behaviours on the CVDR score, adjusting for participants' sex, age group, race, annual household income, and accelerometer wear time. The lowest CVDR was observed among Busy Exercisers (high MVPA and low sedentary; 8.5%), whereas Couch Potatoes (low MVPA and high sedentary) had the highest (18.6%). Compared with the reference group (Busy Exercisers), the activity profile associated with the highest CVDR was Couch Potatoes (adjusted mean difference 3.6, SE 0.38, prisk landscape" was developed to better visualise the conjoint associations of MVPA and sedentary behaviour on CVDR for each activity profile. The association between MVPA was greater than that of sedentary behaviour; however, for people with low MVPA, shifts in sedentary behaviour may have the greatest impact on CVDR. Activity profiles that consider the interrelationships between physical activity and sedentary behaviour differ in terms of CVDR. Future interventions may need to be tailored to specific profiles and be dynamic enough to reflect change in the profile over time. Copyright © 2015 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile to Reflect Temporal Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufouil, Carole; Beiser, Alexa; McLure, Leslie A.; Wolf, Philip A.; Tzourio, Christophe; Howard, Virginia J; Westwood, Andrew J.; Himali, Jayandra J.; Sullivan, Lisa; Aparicio, Hugo J.; Kelly-Hayes, Margaret; Ritchie, Karen; Kase, Carlos S.; Pikula, Aleksandra; Romero, Jose R.; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Samieri, Cécilia; Vasan, Ramachandran S.; Chêne, Genevieve; Howard, George; Seshadri, Sudha

    2017-01-01

    Background Age-adjusted stroke incidence has decreased over the past 50 years, likely due to changes in the prevalence and impact of various stroke risk factors. An updated version of the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP) might better predict current risks in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) and other cohorts. We compared the accuracy of the standard (Old), and of a revised (New) version of the FSRP in predicting the risk of all-stroke and ischemic stroke, and validated this new FSRP in two external cohorts, the 3 Cities (3C) and REGARDS studies. Methods We computed the old FSRP as originally described, and a new model that used the most recent epoch-specific risk factors' prevalence and hazard-ratios for persons ≥ 55 years and for the subsample ≥ 65 years (to match the age range in REGARDS and 3C studies respectively), and compared the efficacy of these models in predicting 5- and 10-year stroke risks. Results The new FSRP was a better predictor of current stroke risks in all three samples than the old FSRP (Calibration chi-squares of new/old FSRP: in men 64.0/12.1, 59.4/30.6 and 20.7/12.5; in women 42.5/4.1, 115.4/90.3 and 9.8/6.5 in FHS, REGARDS and 3C, respectively). In the REGARDS, the new FSRP was a better predictor among whites compared to blacks. Conclusions A more contemporaneous, new FSRP better predicts current risks in 3 large community samples and could serve as the basis for examining geographic and racial differences in stroke risk and the incremental diagnostic utility of novel stroke risk factors. PMID:28159800

  7. Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile to Reflect Temporal Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufouil, Carole; Beiser, Alexa; McLure, Leslie A; Wolf, Philip A; Tzourio, Christophe; Howard, Virginia J; Westwood, Andrew J; Himali, Jayandra J; Sullivan, Lisa; Aparicio, Hugo J; Kelly-Hayes, Margaret; Ritchie, Karen; Kase, Carlos S; Pikula, Aleksandra; Romero, Jose R; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Samieri, Cécilia; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Chêne, Genevieve; Howard, George; Seshadri, Sudha

    2017-03-21

    Age-adjusted stroke incidence has decreased over the past 50 years, likely as a result of changes in the prevalence and impact of various stroke risk factors. An updated version of the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP) might better predict current risks in the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) and other cohorts. We compared the accuracy of the standard (old) and of a revised (new) version of the FSRP in predicting the risk of all-stroke and ischemic stroke and validated this new FSRP in 2 external cohorts, the 3C (3 Cities) and REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) studies. We computed the old FSRP as originally described and a new model that used the most recent epoch-specific risk factor prevalence and hazard ratios for individuals ≥55 years of age and for the subsample ≥65 years of age (to match the age range in REGARDS and 3C studies, respectively) and compared the efficacy of these models in predicting 5- and 10-year stroke risks. The new FSRP was a better predictor of current stroke risks in all 3 samples than the old FSRP (calibration χ 2 of new/old FSRP: in men: 64.0/12.1, 59.4/30.6, and 20.7/12.5; in women: 42.5/4.1, 115.4/90.3, and 9.8/6.5 in FHS, REGARDS, and 3C, respectively). In the REGARDS, the new FSRP was a better predictor among whites compared with blacks. A more contemporaneous, new FSRP better predicts current risks in 3 large community samples and could serve as the basis for examining geographic and racial differences in stroke risk and the incremental diagnostic utility of novel stroke risk factors. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  8. Spatial modelling of malaria risk factors in Ruhuha sector in the east ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spatial clusters of malaria occurrence were subsequently determined using Getis and Ord spatial statistics. This cluster analysis showed that malaria distribution is characterized by zones with high malaria risk, so called hot spots, zones with moderate malaria risk known as not significant spots and zones of low malaria risk ...

  9. On the Anonymity Risk of Time-Varying User Profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Puglisi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Websites and applications use personalisation services to profile their users, collect their patterns and activities and eventually use this data to provide tailored suggestions. User preferences and social interactions are therefore aggregated and analysed. Every time a user publishes a new post or creates a link with another entity, either another user, or some online resource, new information is added to the user profile. Exposing private data does not only reveal information about single users’ preferences, increasing their privacy risk, but can expose more about their network that single actors intended. This mechanism is self-evident in social networks where users receive suggestions based on their friends’ activities. We propose an information-theoretic approach to measure the differential update of the anonymity risk of time-varying user profiles. This expresses how privacy is affected when new content is posted and how much third-party services get to know about the users when a new activity is shared. We use actual Facebook data to show how our model can be applied to a real-world scenario.

  10. Individual spatial responses towards roads: implications for mortality risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Grilo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Understanding the ecological consequences of roads and developing ways to mitigate their negative effects has become an important goal for many conservation biologists. Most mitigation measures are based on road mortality and barrier effects data. However, studying fine-scale individual spatial responses in roaded landscapes may help develop more cohesive road planning strategies for wildlife conservation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated how individuals respond in their spatial behavior toward a highway and its traffic intensity by radio-tracking two common species particularly vulnerable to road mortality (barn owl Tyto alba and stone marten Martes foina. We addressed the following questions: 1 how highways affected home-range location and size in the immediate vicinity of these structures, 2 which road-related features influenced habitat selection, 3 what was the role of different road-related features on movement properties, and 4 which characteristics were associated with crossing events and road-kills. The main findings were: 1 if there was available habitat, barn owls and stone martens may not avoid highways and may even include highways within their home-ranges; 2 both species avoided using areas near the highway when traffic was high, but tended to move toward the highway when streams were in close proximity and where verges offered suitable habitat; and 3 barn owls tended to cross above-grade highway sections while stone martens tended to avoid crossing at leveled highway sections. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality may be the main road-mediated mechanism that affects barn owl and stone marten populations. Fine-scale movements strongly indicated that a decrease in road mortality risk can be realized by reducing sources of attraction, and by increasing road permeability through measures that promote safe crossings.

  11. The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

    2018-03-01

    This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

  12. Visuo-spatial cueing in children with differential reading and spelling profiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Banfi

    Full Text Available Dyslexia has been claimed to be causally related to deficits in visuo-spatial attention. In particular, inefficient shifting of visual attention during spatial cueing paradigms is assumed to be associated with problems in graphemic parsing during sublexical reading. The current study investigated visuo-spatial attention performance in an exogenous cueing paradigm in a large sample (N = 191 of third and fourth graders with different reading and spelling profiles (controls, isolated reading deficit, isolated spelling deficit, combined deficit in reading and spelling. Once individual variability in reaction times was taken into account by means of z-transformation, a cueing deficit (i.e. no significant difference between valid and invalid trials was found for children with combined deficits in reading and spelling. However, poor readers without spelling problems showed a cueing effect comparable to controls, but exhibited a particularly strong right-over-left advantage (position effect. Isolated poor spellers showed a significant cueing effect, but no position effect. While we replicated earlier findings of a reduced cueing effect among poor nonword readers (indicating deficits in sublexical processing, we also found a reduced cueing effect among children with particularly poor orthographic spelling (indicating deficits in lexical processing. Thus, earlier claims of a specific association with nonword reading could not be confirmed. Controlling for ADHD-symptoms reported in a parental questionnaire did not impact on the statistical analysis, indicating that cueing deficits are not caused by more general attentional limitations. Between 31 and 48% of participants in the three reading and/or spelling deficit groups as well as 32% of the control group showed reduced spatial cueing. These findings indicate a significant, but moderate association between certain aspects of visuo-spatial attention and subcomponents of written language processing, the

  13. Visuo-spatial cueing in children with differential reading and spelling profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banfi, Chiara; Kemény, Ferenc; Gangl, Melanie; Schulte-Körne, Gerd; Moll, Kristina; Landerl, Karin

    2017-01-01

    Dyslexia has been claimed to be causally related to deficits in visuo-spatial attention. In particular, inefficient shifting of visual attention during spatial cueing paradigms is assumed to be associated with problems in graphemic parsing during sublexical reading. The current study investigated visuo-spatial attention performance in an exogenous cueing paradigm in a large sample (N = 191) of third and fourth graders with different reading and spelling profiles (controls, isolated reading deficit, isolated spelling deficit, combined deficit in reading and spelling). Once individual variability in reaction times was taken into account by means of z-transformation, a cueing deficit (i.e. no significant difference between valid and invalid trials) was found for children with combined deficits in reading and spelling. However, poor readers without spelling problems showed a cueing effect comparable to controls, but exhibited a particularly strong right-over-left advantage (position effect). Isolated poor spellers showed a significant cueing effect, but no position effect. While we replicated earlier findings of a reduced cueing effect among poor nonword readers (indicating deficits in sublexical processing), we also found a reduced cueing effect among children with particularly poor orthographic spelling (indicating deficits in lexical processing). Thus, earlier claims of a specific association with nonword reading could not be confirmed. Controlling for ADHD-symptoms reported in a parental questionnaire did not impact on the statistical analysis, indicating that cueing deficits are not caused by more general attentional limitations. Between 31 and 48% of participants in the three reading and/or spelling deficit groups as well as 32% of the control group showed reduced spatial cueing. These findings indicate a significant, but moderate association between certain aspects of visuo-spatial attention and subcomponents of written language processing, the causal status of

  14. 78 FR 66010 - Draft Risk Profile on Pathogens and Filth in Spices; Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-04

    ...] Draft Risk Profile on Pathogens and Filth in Spices; Availability AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration... availability of a draft risk profile entitled ``FDA Draft Risk Profile: Pathogens and Filth in Spices'' (draft... posed by consumption of spices in the United States by identifying the most commonly occurring microbial...

  15. Spatial profiling of nuclear receptor transcription patterns over the course of Drosophila development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilk, Ronit; Hu, Jack; Krause, Henry M

    2013-07-08

    Previous work has shown that many of the 18 family members of Drosophila nuclear receptor transcription factors function in a temporal hierarchy to coordinate developmental progression and growth with the rate limiting process of metabolism. To gain further insight into these interactions and processes, we have undertaken a whole-family analysis of nuclear receptor mRNA spatial expression patterns over the entire process of embryogenesis, as well as the 3rd instar wandering larva stage, by using high-resolution fluorescence in situ hybridization. Overall, the patterns of expression are remarkably consistent with previously mapped spatial activity profiles documented during the same time points, with similar hot spots and temporal profiles in endocrine and metabolically important tissues. Among the more remarkable of the findings is that the majority of mRNA expression patterns observed show striking subcellular distributions, indicating potentially critical roles in the control of protein synthesis and subsequent subcellular distributions. These patterns will serve as a useful reference for future studies on the tissue-specific roles and interactions of nuclear receptor proteins, partners, cofactors and ligands.

  16. Spatial Modeling of Risk in Natural Resource Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Jones

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Making decisions in natural resource management involves an understanding of the risk and uncertainty of the outcomes, such as crop failure or cattle starvation, and of the normal spread of the expected production. Hedging against poor outcomes often means lack of investment and slow adoption of new methods. At the household level, production instability can have serious effects on income and food security. At the national level, it can have social and economic impacts that may affect all sectors of society. Crop models such as CERES-Maize are excellent tools for assessing weather-related production variability. WATBAL is a water balance model that can provide robust estimates of the potential growing days for a pasture. These models require large quantities of daily weather data that are rarely available. MarkSim is an application for generating synthetic daily weather files by estimating the third-order Markov model parameters from interpolated climate surfaces. The models can then be run for each distinct point on the map. This paper examines the growth of maize and pasture in dryland agriculture in southern Africa. Weather simulators produce independent estimates for each point on the map; however, we know that a spatial coherence of weather exists. We investigated a method of incorporating spatial coherence into MarkSim and show that it increases the variance of production. This means that all of the farmers in a coherent area share poor yields, with important consequences for food security, markets, transport, and shared grazing lands. The long-term aspects of risk are associated with global climate change. We used the results of a Global Circulation Model to extrapolate to the year 2055. We found that low maize yields would become more likely in the marginal areas, whereas they may actually increase in some areas. The same trend was found with pasture growth. We outline areas where further work is required before these tools and methods

  17. Profile and Risk Factor Analysis of Unintentional Injuries in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhamkar, Rahul; Seth, Bageshree; Setia, Maninder Singh

    2016-10-01

    To study the profile and various risk factors associated with unintentional injuries in children. The study is a cross sectional analysis of data collected from 351 children presenting with unintentional injury to a tertiary care hospital in Navi Mumbai, India. Data were collected about variables based on Haddon Phase Factor Matrix - host, environment and agent factors. Proportions for categorical variables across various groups were compared using Chi square test or Fisher's exact test. Logistic regression model was used to evaluate the factors. Falls (36 %) were the most common injuries followed by bites (23 %). Majority of children were school going children (38 %) followed by preschool children (29 %). Forty-seven percent were from lower socioeconomic class. Commonest place of injury was home (48 %) and the commonest time was evening (49 %). Though there was male predominance in injuries, the difference across gender did not vary significantly (p = 0.15). Poisonings were significantly more common in infants and toddlers and in rural population (p risk of bites compared to urban (p Profile of injuries varies widely as per the variations in agent, host and environmental factors. Socio-environmental, economic conditions and infancy-toddler age groups are predisposing risk factors for bites and poisoning. Although rural areas and lower socioeconomic class population are more vulnerable to serious types of injuries, they still lack essential basic medical care.

  18. Bleeding Risk Profile in Patients With Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, Frederic; Husmann, Marc; Benenati, James F; Katzen, Barry T; Del Conde, Ian

    2016-06-01

    To assess the bleeding risk profile using the HAS-BLED score in patients with symptomatic peripheral artery disease (PAD). A post hoc analysis was performed using data from a series of 115 consecutive patients (mean age 72.4±11.4 years; 68 men) with symptomatic PAD undergoing endovascular revascularization. The endpoint of the study was to assess bleeding risk using the 9-point HAS-BLED score, which was previously validated in cohorts of patients with and without atrial fibrillation. For the purpose of this study, the low (0-1), intermediate (2), and high-risk (≥3) scores were stratified as low/intermediate risk (HAS-BLED risk (HAS-BLED ≥3). The mean HAS-BLED score was 2.76±1.16; 64 (56%) patients had a HAS-BLED score ≥3.0. Patients with PAD Rutherford category 5/6 ischemia had an even higher mean HAS-BLED score (3.20±1.12). Logistic regression analysis revealed aortoiliac or femoropopliteal segment involvement, chronic kidney disease, as well as Rutherford category 5/6, to be independent risk factors associated with a HAS-BLED score ≥3. Patients with PAD, especially those presenting with Rutherford category 5/6 ischemic symptoms, have high HAS-BLED scores, suggesting increased risk for major bleeding. Prospective clinical validation of the HAS-BLED score in patients with PAD may help with the risk-benefit assessment when prescribing antithrombotic therapy. © The Author(s) 2016.

  19. Geographic profiling as a novel spatial tool for targeting infectious disease control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuller Douglas O

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Geographic profiling is a statistical tool originally developed in criminology to prioritise large lists of suspects in cases of serial crime. Here, we use two data sets - one historical and one modern - to show how it can be used to locate the sources of infectious disease. Results First, we re-analyse data from a classic epidemiological study, the 1854 London cholera outbreak. Using 321 disease sites as input, we evaluate the locations of 13 neighbourhood water pumps. The Broad Street pump - the outbreak's source- ranks first, situated in the top 0.2% of the geoprofile. We extend our study with an analysis of reported malaria cases in Cairo, Egypt, using 139 disease case locations to rank 59 mosquitogenic local water sources, seven of which tested positive for the vector Anopheles sergentii. Geographic profiling ranks six of these seven sites in positions 1-6, all in the top 2% of the geoprofile. In both analyses the method outperformed other measures of spatial central tendency. Conclusions We suggest that geographic profiling could form a useful component of integrated control strategies relating to a wide variety of infectious diseases, since evidence-based targeting of interventions is more efficient, environmentally friendly and cost-effective than untargeted intervention.

  20. Modular injector integrated linear apparatus with motion profile optimization for spatial atomic layer deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaolei; Li, Yun; Lin, Jilong; Shan, Bin; Chen, Rong

    2017-11-01

    A spatial atomic layer deposition apparatus integrated with a modular injector and a linear motor has been designed. It consists of four parts: a precursor delivery manifold, a modular injector, a reaction zone, and a driving unit. An injector with multi-layer structured channels is designed to help improve precursor distribution homogeneity. During the back and forth movement of the substrate at high speed, the inertial impact caused by jerk and sudden changes of acceleration will degrade the film deposition quality. Such residual vibration caused by inertial impact will aggravate the fluctuation of the gap distance between the injector and the substrate in the deposition process. Thus, an S-curve motion profile is implemented to reduce the large inertial impact, and the maximum position error could be reduced by 84%. The microstructure of the film under the S-curve motion profile shows smaller root-mean-square and scanning voltage amplitude under an atomic force microscope, which verifies the effectiveness of the S-curve motion profile in reducing the residual vibration and stabilizing the gap distance between the injector and the substrate. The film deposition rate could reach 100 nm/min while maintaining good uniformity without obvious periodic patterns on the surface.

  1. Spatial modelling of population at risk and PM 2.5 exposure index: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, monitoring, spatial representation and development of associated risk indicators have been major problems undermining formulation of relevant policy on air quality. This study used ... to environmental health. Key Words: Population at risk, PM2.5; Spatial modeling, GIS, Exposure index, environmental health ...

  2. Spatial Distribution of Infection Risk of SARS Transmission in a Hospital Ward

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qian, Hua; Li, Yuguo; Nielsen, Peter V.

    2009-01-01

    The classical Wells-Riley model for predicting risk of airborne transmission of diseases assumes a uniform spatial distribution of the infected cases in an enclosed space. A new mathematical model is developed here for predicting the spatial distribution of infection risk of airborne transmitted ......, such as inpatients in a hospital ward, passengers in an airplane etc....

  3. Spatial distribution and vertical variation of arsenic in Guangdong soil profiles, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, H.H.; Yuan, H.X.; Hu, Y.G.; Wu, Z.F.; Zhu, L.A.; Zhu, L.; Li, F.B.; LI, D.Q.

    2006-01-01

    Total of 260 soil profiles were reported to investigate the arsenic spatial distribution and vertical variation in Guangdong province. The arsenic concentration followed an approximately lognormal distribution. The arsenic geometric mean concentration of 10.4 mg/kg is higher than that of China. An upper baseline concentration of 23.4 mg/kg was estimated for surface soils. The influence of soil properties on arsenic concentration was not important. Arsenic spatial distributions presented similar patterns that high arsenic concentration mainly located in limestone, and sandshale areas, indicating that soil arsenic distribution was dependent on bedrock properties than anthropogenic inputs. Moreover, from A- to C-horizon arsenic geometric mean concentrations had an increasing tendency of 10.4, 10.7 to 11.3 mg/kg. This vertical variation may be related to the lower soil organic matter and soil degradation and erosion. Consequently, the soil arsenic export into surface and groundwaters would reach 1040 t year -1 in the study area. - Soil arsenic movement export is a potential threat to the water quality of the study area

  4. Spatial Scaling of the Profile of Selective Attention in the Visual Field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gannon, Matthew A; Knapp, Ashley A; Adams, Thomas G; Long, Stephanie M; Parks, Nathan A

    2016-01-01

    Neural mechanisms of selective attention must be capable of adapting to variation in the absolute size of an attended stimulus in the ever-changing visual environment. To date, little is known regarding how attentional selection interacts with fluctuations in the spatial expanse of an attended object. Here, we use event-related potentials (ERPs) to investigate the scaling of attentional enhancement and suppression across the visual field. We measured ERPs while participants performed a task at fixation that varied in its attentional demands (attentional load) and visual angle (1.0° or 2.5°). Observers were presented with a stream of task-relevant stimuli while foveal, parafoveal, and peripheral visual locations were probed by irrelevant distractor stimuli. We found two important effects in the N1 component of visual ERPs. First, N1 modulations to task-relevant stimuli indexed attentional selection of stimuli during the load task and further correlated with task performance. Second, with increased task size, attentional modulation of the N1 to distractor stimuli showed a differential pattern that was consistent with a scaling of attentional selection. Together, these results demonstrate that the size of an attended stimulus scales the profile of attentional selection across the visual field and provides insights into the attentional mechanisms associated with such spatial scaling.

  5. Spatial Scaling of the Profile of Selective Attention in the Visual Field.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew A Gannon

    Full Text Available Neural mechanisms of selective attention must be capable of adapting to variation in the absolute size of an attended stimulus in the ever-changing visual environment. To date, little is known regarding how attentional selection interacts with fluctuations in the spatial expanse of an attended object. Here, we use event-related potentials (ERPs to investigate the scaling of attentional enhancement and suppression across the visual field. We measured ERPs while participants performed a task at fixation that varied in its attentional demands (attentional load and visual angle (1.0° or 2.5°. Observers were presented with a stream of task-relevant stimuli while foveal, parafoveal, and peripheral visual locations were probed by irrelevant distractor stimuli. We found two important effects in the N1 component of visual ERPs. First, N1 modulations to task-relevant stimuli indexed attentional selection of stimuli during the load task and further correlated with task performance. Second, with increased task size, attentional modulation of the N1 to distractor stimuli showed a differential pattern that was consistent with a scaling of attentional selection. Together, these results demonstrate that the size of an attended stimulus scales the profile of attentional selection across the visual field and provides insights into the attentional mechanisms associated with such spatial scaling.

  6. The third spatial dimension risk approach for individual risk and group risk in multiple use of space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suddle, Shahid; Ale, Ben

    2005-01-01

    Buildings above roads and railways are examples of multiple use of space. Safety is one of the critical issues for such projects. Risk analyses can be undertaken to investigate what safety measures that are required to realise these projects. The results of these analyses can also be compared to risk acceptance criteria, if they are applicable. In The Netherlands, there are explicit criteria for acceptability of individual risk and societal risk. Traditionally calculations of individual risk result in contours of equal risk on a map and thus are considered in two-dimensional space only. However, when different functions are layered the third spatial dimension, height, becomes an important parameter. The various activities and structures above and below each other impose mutual risks. There are no explicit norms or policies about how to deal with the individual or group risk approach in the third dimension. This paper proposes an approach for these problems and gives some examples. Finally, the third dimension risk approach is applied in a case study of Bos en Lommer, Amsterdam

  7. Sustained Splits of Attention within versus across Visual Hemifields Produce Distinct Spatial Gain Profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Sabrina; Keitel, Christian; Müller, Matthias M

    2016-01-01

    Visual attention can be focused concurrently on two stimuli at noncontiguous locations while intermediate stimuli remain ignored. Nevertheless, behavioral performance in multifocal attention tasks falters when attended stimuli fall within one visual hemifield as opposed to when they are distributed across left and right hemifields. This "different-hemifield advantage" has been ascribed to largely independent processing capacities of each cerebral hemisphere in early visual cortices. Here, we investigated how this advantage influences the sustained division of spatial attention. We presented six isoeccentric light-emitting diodes (LEDs) in the lower visual field, each flickering at a different frequency. Participants attended to two LEDs that were spatially separated by an intermediate LED and responded to synchronous events at to-be-attended LEDs. Task-relevant pairs of LEDs were either located in the same hemifield ("within-hemifield" conditions) or separated by the vertical meridian ("across-hemifield" conditions). Flicker-driven brain oscillations, steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEPs), indexed the allocation of attention to individual LEDs. Both behavioral performance and SSVEPs indicated enhanced processing of attended LED pairs during "across-hemifield" relative to "within-hemifield" conditions. Moreover, SSVEPs demonstrated effective filtering of intermediate stimuli in "across-hemifield" condition only. Thus, despite identical physical distances between LEDs of attended pairs, the spatial profiles of gain effects differed profoundly between "across-hemifield" and "within-hemifield" conditions. These findings corroborate that early cortical visual processing stages rely on hemisphere-specific processing capacities and highlight their limiting role in the concurrent allocation of visual attention to multiple locations.

  8. Molecular profiling--a tool for addressing emerging gaps in the comparative risk assessment of GMOs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinemann, Jack A; Kurenbach, Brigitta; Quist, David

    2011-10-01

    Assessing the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is required by both international agreement and domestic legislation. Many view the use of the "omics" tools for profiling classes of molecules as useful in risk assessment, but no consensus has formed on the need or value of these techniques for assessing the risks of all GMOs. In this and many other cases, experts support case-by-case use of molecular profiling techniques for risk assessment. We review the latest research on the applicability and usefulness of molecular profiling techniques for GMO risk assessment. As more and more kinds of GMOs and traits are developed, broader use of molecular profiling in a risk assessment may be required to supplement the comparative approach to risk assessment. The literature-based discussions on the use of profiling appear to have settled on two findings: 1. profiling techniques are reliable and relevant, at least no less so than other techniques used in risk assessment; and 2. although not required routinely, regulators should be aware of when they are needed. The dismissal of routine molecular profiling may be confusing to regulators who then lack guidance on when molecular profiling might be worthwhile. Molecular profiling is an important way to increase confidence in risk assessments if the profiles are properly designed to address relevant risks and are applied at the correct stage of the assessment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Note: Interpolation for evaluation of a two-dimensional spatial profile of plasma densities at low gas pressures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Se-Jin; Kim, Young-Chul; Chung, Chin-Wook

    2011-01-01

    An interpolation algorithm for the evaluation of the spatial profile of plasma densities in a cylindrical reactor was developed for low gas pressures. The algorithm is based on a collisionless two-dimensional fluid model. Contrary to the collisional case, i.e., diffusion fluid model, the fitting algorithm depends on the aspect ratio of the cylindrical reactor. The spatial density profile of the collisionless fitting algorithm is presented in two-dimensional images and compared with the results of the diffusion fluid model.

  10. Changes in risk factor profile after ischemic stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hornnes, Nete

    up 1 year after stroke. We constructed a baseline risk factor profile (RFP) of 6 variables: smoking, excessive drinking, physical inactivity, untreated hypertension, no cholesterol-lowering, and no antithrombotic treatment/warfarin at discharge from hospital. Each item was rated 0 or 1 giving...... a maximum score of 6 points. Mean baseline RFP-score was 1.6 Results. After 1 year we found a reduction in current smoking (p=0.008) and in excessive drinking (p=0.0001). There was no change in physical activity and in untreated hypertension. There was an increase in the proportion of patients on lipid......-lowering (p=0.011) and antithrombotic (p=0.0003) treatment yielding a reduction in RFP to 1.4 (phypertensive, and most patients with untreated hypertension and hypercholesterolemia remained untreated. By 1-year follow up 30 patients (9.4%) had had a non...

  11. Diagnostic efficacy for coronary in-stent patency with parameters defined on Hounsfield CT value-spatial profile curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamazaki, Tadashi; Suzuki, Jun-ichi; Shimamoto, Ryoichi; Tsuji, Taeko; Ohmoto-Sekine, Yuki; Morita, Toshihiro; Yamashita, Hiroshi; Honye, Junko; Nagai, Ryozo; Komatsu, Shuhei; Akahane, Masaaki; Ohtomo, Kuni

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: Hounsfield CT values across coronary CT angiograms constitute CT value-spatial profile curves. These CT profile curves are independent of window settings, and therefore, parameters derived from the curves can be used for objective anatomic analyses. Applicability of parameters derived from the curves to quantification of coronary in-stent patency has not yet been evaluated. Methods: Twenty-five CT value-spatial profile curves were delineated from 10 consecutive coronary stents to test correlation between the curve derived parameter (i.e., the minimum extreme value normalized by dividing by the maximum value of the curves obtained at neighboring outside of stents) and three intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) parameters. Results: Correlation coefficients between normalized minimum extreme value of CT value-spatial profile curves and three IVUS parameters (such as patent cross-sectional in-stent area, the percentage of patent cross-sectional in-stent area, and coronary artery intra-stent diameter) were 0.65 (p < 0.01), 0.44 (p < 0.05) and 0.51 (p < 0.05), respectively. Conclusions: CT parameters defined on Hounsfield CT value-spatial profile curves correlated significantly with IVUS parameters for quantitative coronary in-stent patency. A new approach with CT coronary angiography is therefore indicated for the noninvasive assessment of in-stent re-stenosis

  12. Diagnostic profile and suicide risk in schizophrenia spectrum disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reutfors, Johan; Bahmanyar, Shahram; Jönsson, Erik G; Ekbom, Anders; Nordström, Peter; Brandt, Lena; Ösby, Urban

    2010-11-01

    Earlier studies of patients with schizophrenia have investigated suicide risk in relation to specific psychiatric symptoms, but it remains to be better understood how suicide risk relates to the diagnostic profile in these patients. We identified all patients with a first clinical ICD-diagnosis of schizophrenia, schizophreniform or schizoaffective disorder in Stockholm County between 1984 and 2000. Patients who died by suicide within five years from diagnosis were defined as cases (n=84) and were individually matched with a similar number of living controls from the same population. Sociodemographic and clinical variables were retrieved from hospital records through a blind process. DSM-IV lifetime diagnoses for cases and controls were derived using the OPCRIT algorithm. A schizophrenia spectrum diagnosis (i.e. schizophrenia, schizophreniform or schizoaffective disorder) was assigned by OPCRIT to 50% of the suicide cases and 62% of the controls. Criteria for schizophrenia were met by 41% of the cases and 51% of the controls; for schizoaffective disorder by 8% of the cases and 10% of the controls; for other psychosis by 23% of the cases and 25% of the controls; and for mood disorder by 26% of the cases and 12% of the controls. Using the schizophrenia diagnosis as a reference, suicide risk was significantly higher in patients meeting criteria for a mood disorder diagnosis with an adjusted odds ratio of 3.3 (95% CI 1.2-9.0). In patients with a clinical schizophrenia spectrum diagnosis, a DSM-IV mood disorder diagnosis increases the suicide risk more than three-fold. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. The geriatric polytrauma: Risk profile and prognostic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupprecht, Holger; Heppner, Hans Jürgen; Wohlfart, Kristina; Türkoglu, Alp

    2017-03-01

    In the German population, the percentage of elderly patients is increasing, and consequently there are more elderly patients among trauma cases, and particularly cases of polytrauma. The aim of this study was to present clinical results and a risk profile for geriatric polytrauma patients. Review of 140 geriatric (over 65 years of age) polytrauma patients who received prehospital treatment was performed. Severity of trauma was retrospectively assessed with Hannover Polytrauma Score (HPTS). Age, hemoglobin (Hb) level, systolic blood pressure (BP), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, timing of and necessity for intubation were analyzed in relation to mortality and in comparison with younger patients. Geriatric polytrauma patients (n=140) had overall mortality rate of 65%, whereas younger patients (n=1468) had mortality rate of 15.9%. Despite equivalent severity of injury (HPTS less age points) in geriatric and non-geriatric groups, mortality rate was 4 times higher in geriatric group. Major blood loss with Hb polytrauma patients. Additional risk factors include very low GCS score and systolic BP <80 mm Hg, for instance, as potential clinical indicators of massive bleeding and traumatic brain injury. Such parameters demand early and rapid treatment at prehospital stage and on admission.

  14. [Temporal and spatial characteristics of ecological risk in Shunyi, Beijing, China based on landscape structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Feng Ting; Peng, Yu

    2016-05-01

    Based on the remote sensing data in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009 and 2013, this article classified the landscape types of Shunyi, and the ecological risk index was built based on landscape disturbance index and landscape fragility. The spatial auto-correlation and geostatistical analysis by GS + and ArcGIS was used to study temporal and spatial changes of ecological risk. The results showed that eco-risk degree in the study region had positive spatial correlation which decreased with the increasing grain size. Within a certain grain range (landscape, such as the banks of Chaobai River.

  15. Bank Diversification Effects on Bank Performance and Risk Profile of Bank in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Lukmawijaya

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the relationship of Indonesian bank diversification towards its long term performance and risk profile with Indonesian bank data from 2009 to 2013. Non-interest income to total operating income of the bank measures its bank diversification level. Bank value is measured by the adjusted Tobin's Q and risk profile which is broken down into total risk, idiosyncratic risk, and systematic risk. The result shows that bank non-interest income diversification has a positive influence on its franchise value. There is, however, no strong evidence that diversification can lower a bank's risk profile.

  16. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-12-18

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

  17. Spatial Optimization of Future Urban Development with Regards to Climate Risk and Sustainability Objectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caparros-Midwood, Daniel; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

    2017-11-01

    Future development in cities needs to manage increasing populations, climate-related risks, and sustainable development objectives such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Planners therefore face a challenge of multidimensional, spatial optimization in order to balance potential tradeoffs and maximize synergies between risks and other objectives. To address this, a spatial optimization framework has been developed. This uses a spatially implemented genetic algorithm to generate a set of Pareto-optimal results that provide planners with the best set of trade-off spatial plans for six risk and sustainability objectives: (i) minimize heat risks, (ii) minimize flooding risks, (iii) minimize transport travel costs to minimize associated emissions, (iv) maximize brownfield development, (v) minimize urban sprawl, and (vi) prevent development of greenspace. The framework is applied to Greater London (U.K.) and shown to generate spatial development strategies that are optimal for specific objectives and differ significantly from the existing development strategies. In addition, the analysis reveals tradeoffs between different risks as well as between risk and sustainability objectives. While increases in heat or flood risk can be avoided, there are no strategies that do not increase at least one of these. Tradeoffs between risk and other sustainability objectives can be more severe, for example, minimizing heat risk is only possible if future development is allowed to sprawl significantly. The results highlight the importance of spatial structure in modulating risks and other sustainability objectives. However, not all planning objectives are suited to quantified optimization and so the results should form part of an evidence base to improve the delivery of risk and sustainability management in future urban development. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. An unsupervised technique for optimal feature selection in attribute profiles for spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Kaushal; Patra, Swarnajyoti

    2018-04-01

    Inclusion of spatial information along with spectral features play a significant role in classification of remote sensing images. Attribute profiles have already proved their ability to represent spatial information. In order to incorporate proper spatial information, multiple attributes are required and for each attribute large profiles need to be constructed by varying the filter parameter values within a wide range. Thus, the constructed profiles that represent spectral-spatial information of an hyperspectral image have huge dimension which leads to Hughes phenomenon and increases computational burden. To mitigate these problems, this work presents an unsupervised feature selection technique that selects a subset of filtered image from the constructed high dimensional multi-attribute profile which are sufficiently informative to discriminate well among classes. In this regard the proposed technique exploits genetic algorithms (GAs). The fitness function of GAs are defined in an unsupervised way with the help of mutual information. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is assessed using one-against-all support vector machine classifier. The experiments conducted on three hyperspectral data sets show the robustness of the proposed method in terms of computation time and classification accuracy.

  19. Birefringence profile adjustment by spatial overlap of nanogratings induced by ultra-short laser pulses inside fused silica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arabanian, Atoosa Sadat; Najafi, Somayeh; Ajami, Aliasghar; Husinsky, Wolfgang; Massudi, Reza

    2018-02-01

    We have succeeded in realizing a method to control the spatial distribution of optical retardation as a result of nanogratings in bulk-fused silica induced by ultrashort laser pulses. A colorimetry-based retardation measurement (CBRM) based on the Michel-Levy interference color chart using a polarization microscope is used to determine the profiles of the optical retardation. Effects of the spatial overlap of written regions as well as the energy and polarization of the writing pulses on the induced retardations are studied. It has been found that the spatial overlap of lines written by pulse trains with different energies and polarizations can result in an adjustment of the induced birefringence in the overlap region. This approach offers the possibility of designing polarization-sensitive components with a desired birefringence profile.

  20. A Flood Risk Assessment of Quang Nam, Vietnam Using Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinh Luu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vietnam is highly vulnerable to flood and storm impacts. Holistic flood risk assessment maps that adequately consider flood risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are not available. These are vital for flood risk preparedness and disaster mitigation measures at the local scale. Unfortunately, there is a lack of knowledge about spatial multicriteria decision analysis and flood risk analysis more broadly in Vietnam. In response to this need, we identify and quantify flood risk components in Quang Nam province through spatial multicriteria decision analysis. The study presents a new approach to local flood risk assessment mapping, which combines historical flood marks with exposure and vulnerability data. The flood risk map output could assist and empower decision-makers in undertaking flood risk management activities in the province. Our study demonstrates a methodology to build flood risk assessment maps using flood mark, exposure and vulnerability data, which could be applied in other provinces in Vietnam.

  1. PARALLEL IMPLEMENTATION OF MORPHOLOGICAL PROFILE BASED SPECTRAL-SPATIAL CLASSIFICATION SCHEME FOR HYPERSPECTRAL IMAGERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Kumar

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Extended morphological profile (EMP is a good technique for extracting spectral-spatial information from the images but large size of hyperspectral images is an important concern for creating EMPs. However, with the availability of modern multi-core processors and commodity parallel processing systems like graphics processing units (GPUs at desktop level, parallel computing provides a viable option to significantly accelerate execution of such computations. In this paper, parallel implementation of an EMP based spectralspatial classification method for hyperspectral imagery is presented. The parallel implementation is done both on multi-core CPU and GPU. The impact of parallelization on speed up and classification accuracy is analyzed. For GPU, the implementation is done in compute unified device architecture (CUDA C. The experiments are carried out on two well-known hyperspectral images. It is observed from the experimental results that GPU implementation provides a speed up of about 7 times, while parallel implementation on multi-core CPU resulted in speed up of about 3 times. It is also observed that parallel implementation has no adverse impact on the classification accuracy.

  2. Optimization of urban spatial development against flooding and other climate risks, and wider sustainability objectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caparros-Midwood Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A spatial optimization framework has been developed to help urban areas mitigate climate risks such as flooding and to curb resource use and greenhouse gas emissions. Measures required to address these issues often conflict with each other, for example more compact cities typically use less energy for transportation but increase runoff from high intensity rainfall events. Balancing potential trade-offs and maximizing synergies between these risks and vulnerabilities is therefore a multi-dimensional, spatial, challenge for urban planners. A spatial optimization framework is used to optimize the following objectives to minimize: (1 risk from heat waves; (2 risk from flooding; (3 the distance of new development to the current central business district; (4 urban sprawl to prevent increased travel costs; and (5 the development of green-space. The framework is applied to a real case study in the North East of England. From an initial configuration, alternative spatial configurations are tested against these objectives and the spatial pattern is evolved over successive generations to search for spatially optimum configurations. The resulting solutions provide planners with a range of robust spatial development patterns known to be best trade-offs which mitigate conflicts between risk and sustainability objectives.

  3. Psychological profiles and emotional regulation characteristics of women engaged in risk-taking sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, Nicolas; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

    2007-12-01

    We investigated the psychological profiles and emotional regulation characteristics of women involved in risk-taking sports. The research sample (N=180) consisted of three groups of women engaged in: (1) non-risk sports (N=90); (2) risk-taking sports for leisure purposes (N=53); or (3) risk-taking sports as professionals (N=37). Each participant completed five questionnaires, the Sensation Seeking Scale, the Bem Sex Role Inventory, the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale, Risk & Excitement Inventory, and the Toronto Alexithymia Scale. The results revealed significant differences between the groups' profiles. Of particular interest are the differences that exist between the profiles of Group 2 (escape profile, masculine gender identity, and high scores on sensation seeking, impulsivity, alexithymia) and Group 3 (compensation profile, androgynous gender identity, average score on sensation seeking, and low scores on impulsivity, alexithymia). We propose that the professional woman might be considered a model for preventing destructive risk-taking behaviors.

  4. Quantifying the benefits of achieving or maintaining long-term low risk profile for cardiovascular disease : The doetinchem cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsegge, Gerben; Smit, Henriëtte A.; Van Der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Daviglus, Martha L.; Verschuren, W. M Monique

    2015-01-01

    Background: Studies investigating the relation between risk profiles and cardiovascular disease have measured risk at baseline only. We investigated maintenance and changes of risk profiles over time and their potential impact on incident cardiovascular disease. Design: Population-based cohort

  5. Quantifying the benefits of achieving or maintaining long-term low risk profile for cardiovascular disease: The Doetinchem Cohort Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsegge, G.; Smit, H.A.; van der Schouw, Y.T.; Daviglus, M.L.; Verschuren, W.M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Studies investigating the relation between risk profiles and cardiovascular disease have measured risk at baseline only. We investigated maintenance and changes of risk profiles over time and their potential impact on incident cardiovascular disease. Design: Population-based cohort

  6. Probabilistic disaggregation of a spatial portfolio of exposure for natural hazard risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2018-01-01

    In natural hazard risk assessment situations are encountered where information on the portfolio of exposure is only available in a spatially aggregated form, hindering a precise risk assessment. Recourse might be found in the spatial disaggregation of the portfolio of exposure to the resolution...... of a portfolio of buildings in two communes in Switzerland and the results are compared to sample observations. The relevance of probabilistic disaggregation uncertainty in natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated with the example of a simple flood risk assessment....

  7. The impact of land use and spatial changes on desertification risk in degraded areas in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saowanee Wijitkosum

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Land use, which relates to land cover, is one of the influential factors associated with desertification risk. A study was conducted on the impact of land use and spatial changes on desertification risk in Huay Sai Royal Development Study Centre in southern Thailand. The study used spatial analysis and the MEDALUS model to investigate the extent of land degradation, land use changes and desertification risk in the study area from 1990 to 2010. The Study examined three groups of factors: soils, climate and human activity to classify the severity of desertification risk. The study findings indicate that most areas (74.4% in the Huay Sai area were at high risk of desertification, and the risk remained high (77.2% in 2010. However, the areas classified as at severe risk of desertification decreased at 4.2% per annum. The study finds that land use changes influenced desertification risk.

  8. A spatial scan statistic for nonisotropic two-level risk cluster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao-Zhou; Wang, Jin-Feng; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Li, Zhong-Jie; Lai, Sheng-Jie

    2012-01-30

    Spatial scan statistic methods are commonly used for geographical disease surveillance and cluster detection. The standard spatial scan statistic does not model any variability in the underlying risks of subregions belonging to a detected cluster. For a multilevel risk cluster, the isotonic spatial scan statistic could model a centralized high-risk kernel in the cluster. Because variations in disease risks are anisotropic owing to different social, economical, or transport factors, the real high-risk kernel will not necessarily take the central place in a whole cluster area. We propose a spatial scan statistic for a nonisotropic two-level risk cluster, which could be used to detect a whole cluster and a noncentralized high-risk kernel within the cluster simultaneously. The performance of the three methods was evaluated through an intensive simulation study. Our proposed nonisotropic two-level method showed better power and geographical precision with two-level risk cluster scenarios, especially for a noncentralized high-risk kernel. Our proposed method is illustrated using the hand-foot-mouth disease data in Pingdu City, Shandong, China in May 2009, compared with two other methods. In this practical study, the nonisotropic two-level method is the only way to precisely detect a high-risk area in a detected whole cluster. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Asymmetry in auditory and spatial attention span in normal elderly genetically at risk for Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Mark W; Delis, Dean C; Bondi, Mark W; Salmon, David P

    2005-02-01

    Some studies of elderly individuals with the ApoE-e4 genotype noted subtle deficits on tests of attention such as the WAIS-R Digit Span subtest, but these findings have not been consistently reported. One possible explanation for the inconsistent results could be the presence of subgroups of e4+ individuals with asymmetric cognitive profiles (i.e., significant discrepancies between verbal and visuospatial skills). Comparing genotype groups with individual, modality-specific tests might obscure subtle differences between verbal and visuospatial attention in these asymmetric subgroups. In this study, we administered the WAIS-R Digit Span and WMS-R Visual Memory Span subtests to 21 nondemented elderly e4+ individuals and 21 elderly e4- individuals matched on age, education, and overall cognitive ability. We hypothesized that a) the e4+ group would show a higher incidence of asymmetric cognitive profiles when comparing Digit Span/Visual Memory Span performance relative to the e4- group; and (b) an analysis of individual test performance would fail to reveal differences between the two subject groups. Although the groups' performances were comparable on the individual attention span tests, the e4+ group showed a significantly larger discrepancy between digit span and spatial span scores compared to the e4- group. These findings suggest that contrast measures of modality-specific attentional skills may be more sensitive to subtle group differences in at-risk groups, even when the groups do not differ on individual comparisons of standardized test means. The increased discrepancy between verbal and visuospatial attention may reflect the presence of "subgroups" within the ApoE-e4 group that are qualitatively similar to asymmetric subgroups commonly associated with the earliest stages of AD.

  10. Determinants of attaining and maintaining a low cardiovascular risk profile-the Doetinchem Cohort Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsegge, Gerben; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Daviglus, Martha L; Smit, Henriëtte A; Verschuren, W M Monique

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: While maintenance of a low cardiovascular risk profile is essential for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, few people maintain a low CVD risk profile throughout their life. We studied the association of demographic, lifestyle, psychological factors and family history of CVD with

  11. Metabolite profiles and the risk of developing diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    Emerging technologies allow the high-throughput profiling of metabolic status from a blood specimen (metabolomics). We investigated whether metabolite profiles could predict the development of diabetes. Among 2,422 normoglycemic individuals followed for 12 years, 201 developed diabetes. Amino acids, amines, and other polar metabolites were profiled in baseline specimens using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Cases and controls were matched for age, body mass index and fasting g...

  12. Unique temporal and spatial biomolecular emission profile on individual zinc oxide nanorods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Manpreet; Song, Sheng; Hahm, Jong-In

    2013-12-01

    Zinc oxide nanorods (ZnO NRs) have emerged in recent years as extremely useful, optical signal-enhancing platforms in DNA and protein detection. Although the use of ZnO NRs in biodetection has been demonstrated so far in systems involving many ZnO NRs per detection element, their future applications will likely take place in a miniaturized setting while exploiting single ZnO NRs in a low-volume, high-throughput bioanalysis. In this paper, we investigate temporal and spatial characteristics of the biomolecular fluorescence on individual ZnO NR systems. Quantitative and qualitative examinations of the biomolecular intensity and photostability are carried out as a function of two important criteria, the time and position along the long axis (length) of NRs. Photostability profiles are also measured with respect to the position on NRs and compared to those characteristics of biomolecules on polymeric control platforms. Unlike the uniformly distributed signal observed on the control platforms, both the fluorescence intensity and photostability are position-dependent on individual ZnO NRs. We have identified a unique phenomenon of highly localized, fluorescence intensification on the nanorod ends (FINE) of well-characterized, individual ZnO nanostructures. When compared to the polymeric controls, the biomolecular fluorescence intensity and photostability are determined to be higher on individual ZnO NRs regardless of the position on NRs. We have also carried out finite-difference time-domain simulations the results of which are in good agreement with the observed FINE. The outcomes of our investigation will offer a much needed basis for signal interpretation for biodetection devices and platforms consisting of single ZnO NRs and, at the same time, contribute significantly to provide insight in understanding the biomolecular fluorescence observed from ZnO NR ensemble-based systems.Zinc oxide nanorods (ZnO NRs) have emerged in recent years as extremely useful, optical

  13. Spatially-Aggregated Temperature Derivatives: Agricultural Risk Management in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Zong

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new form of weather derivative contract, namely the climatic zone-based growth degree-day (GDD contract, is introduced. The objective is to increase the risk management efficiency in the agricultural sector of China and to reduce the model dimension of multi-regional temperature-based weather derivatives pricing. Since the proposed contract serves as a risk management tool for all of the cities in the same climatic zone, we compare the risk hedging power between the climatic zone-based and the city-based GDD contracts. As a result, we find that the differences between the two types of temperature-based weather contracts are maintained within a certain range.

  14. Altered visual-spatial attention to task-irrelevant information is associated with falls risk in older adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagamatsu, Lindsay S.; Munkacsy, Michelle; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa; Handy, Todd C.

    2014-01-01

    Executive cognitive functions play a critical role in falls risk – a pressing health care issue in seniors. In particular, intact attentional processing is integral for safe mobility and navigation. However, the specific contribution of impaired visual-spatial attention in falls remains unclear. In this study, we examined the association between visual-spatial attention to task-irrelevant stimuli and falls risk in community-dwelling older adults. Participants completed a visual target discrimination task at fixation while task-irrelevant probes were presented in both visual fields. We assessed attention to left and right peripheral probes using event-related potentials (ERPs). Falls risk was determined using the valid and reliable Physiological Profile Assessment (PPA). We found a significantly positive association between reduced attentional facilitation, as measured by the N1 ERP component, and falls risk. This relationship was specific to probes presented in the left visual field and measured at ipsilateral electrode sites. Our results suggest that fallers exhibit reduced attention to the left side of visual space and provide evidence that impaired right hemispheric function and/or structure may contribute to falls. PMID:24436970

  15. Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pika, A.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Fidge, C.J.; Hofstede, ter A.H.M.; Wynn, M.T.; Salinesi, C.; Norrie, M.C.; Pastor, O.

    2013-01-01

    Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to

  16. Risk Profile Analysis on BIST30 Exchange Index

    OpenAIRE

    Ural, Mert; Demireli, Erhan

    2018-01-01

    Inthis study, a portfolio was created by using the stocks listed in BIST30 indexand the portfolio risk was measured by using Capital Asset Pricing Model. Afterthat risk decomposition was made by purifying the risk of the stocks from totalmarket risk and by this way the systematic and non-systematic risk amounts havebeen determined for both the portfolio and each stock.

  17. Reduction of spatial distribution of risk factors for transportation of contaminants released by coal mining activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, Shivesh Kishore; Samadder, Sukha Ranjan

    2016-09-15

    It is reported that water-energy nexus composes two of the biggest development and human health challenges. In the present study we presented a Risk Potential Index (RPI) model which encapsulates Source, Vector (Transport), and Target risks for forecasting surface water contamination. The main aim of the model is to identify critical surface water risk zones for an open cast mining environment, taking Jharia Coalfield, India as the study area. The model also helps in feasible sampling design. Based on spatial analysis various risk zones were successfully delineated. Monthly RPI distribution revealed that the risk of surface water contamination was highest during the monsoon months. Surface water samples were analysed to validate the model. A GIS based alternative management option was proposed to reduce surface water contamination risk and observed 96% and 86% decrease in the spatial distribution of very high risk areas for the months June and July respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Genetic risk profiles for a childhood with severe overweight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, J R; Estévez, M N; Giralt, P S; Cáceres, A; Pérez, L M L; González-Carpio, M; Ballester, F; Sunyer, J; Rodríguez-López, R

    2014-08-01

    The objective of this study was the description of a valid genetic risk score (GRS) to predict individuals with high susceptibility to childhood overweight by their genetic profiles. Case-control study including a group of children with high-risk familial predisposition to morbid obesity. Birth cohort from general population constituted the validation sample. For the discovery sample, 218 children with non-syndromic obesity and 190 control individuals were included. The validation sample was 653 children from two birth cohorts belonging to the INMA (Infancia y Medio Ambiente [Environment and Childhood] )project. 109 SNPs located in the genes FTO, SEC16B, BDNF, ETV5, SH2B1, GNPDA2, LYPLAL1, MSRA, TFAP2, KCTD15, MTCH2 and NEGR1, previously reported in association to body mass index (BMI) were analysed. For the validation sample, association between genome-wide data and BMI measurements between 3.5 and 5 years of age, were evaluated. The GRS includes six SNPs in the genes FTO, TFAP2B, SEC16B, ETV5 and SH2B1. The score distribution differs among cases and controls (P = 9.2 × 10(-14) ) showing a significant linear association with obesity (odds ratio [OR] per allele = 1.69; confidence interval [CI] 95% = 1.46-1.97; P = 4.3 × 10(-1) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.727; CI 95% = 0.676-0.778). The results were validated by the INMA cohort (OR per allele = 1.23 CI 95% = 1.03-1.48 and AUC = 0.601 CI 95% = 0.522-0.680). The use of our proposed genetic score provides useful information to determine those children who are susceptible to obesity. To improve the efficiency of clinical prevention and treatment of obesity, it is essential to design individualized based protocols in advance knowledge of the molecular basis of inherited susceptibility. © 2013 The Authors. Pediatric Obesity © 2013 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

  19. SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF LAND COVER AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE RISK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate changes may allow for vector-transmitted tropical diseases to spread into temperate areas. Areas of low ecological diversity are at higher risk of infectious disease transmission due to decreased zooprophylaxis, the diversion of disease carrying insects from humans to...

  20. Improving the allocation of flood-risk interventions from a spatial quality perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nillesen, A.L.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes an integral approach to flood-risk protection and spatial design that allows for an active involvement of landscape architects and urban designers in the allocation of flood-risk interventions within the Dutch Delta. The Dutch Rijnmond–Drechtsteden area is used as a case study

  1. Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Biodiversity Risk in the US: A Spatial Econometric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P. Berrens

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC relationship is supported for a measure of biodiversity risk and economic development across the United States (US. Using state-level data for all 48 contiguous states, biodiversity risk is measured using a Modified Index (MODEX. This index is an adaptation of a comprehensive National Biodiversity Risk Assessment Index. The MODEX differs from other measures in that it is takes into account the impact of human activities and conservation measures. The econometric approach includes corrections for spatial autocorrelation effects, which are present in the data. Modeling estimation results do not support the EKC hypothesis for biodiversity risk in the US. This finding is robust over ordinary least squares, spatial error, and spatial lag models, where the latter is shown to be the preferred model. Results from the spatial lag regression show that a 1% increase in human population density is associated with about a 0.19% increase in biodiversity risk. Spatial dependence in this case study explains 30% of the variation, as risk in one state spills over into adjoining states. From a policy perspective, this latter result supports the need for coordinated efforts at state and federal levels to address the problem of biodiversity loss.

  2. Generation of dual-wavelength, synchronized, tunable, high energy, femtosecond laser pulses with nearly perfect gaussian spatial profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.-K.; Siegal, Y.; Lü, C.; Mazur, E.

    1992-07-01

    We use self-phase modulation in a single-mode fiber to produce broadband femtosecond laser pulses. Subsequent amplification through two Bethune cells yields high-energy, tunable, pulses synchronized with the output of an amplified colliding-pulse-modelocked (CPM) laser. We routinely obtain tunable 200 μJ pulses of 42 fs (fwhm) duration with a nearly perfect gaussian spatial profile. Although self-phase modulation in a single-mode fiber is widely used in femtosecond laser systems, amplification of a fiber-generated supercontinuum in a Bethune cell amplifier is a new feature which maintains the high-quality spatial profile while providing high gain. This laser system is particularly well suited for high energy dual-wavelength pump=probe experiments and time-resolved four-wave mixing spectroscopy.

  3. Vector-borne disease risk indexes in spatially structured populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Velázquez-Castro

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available There are economic and physical limitations when applying prevention and control strategies for urban vector borne diseases. Consequently, there are increasing concerns and interest in designing efficient strategies and regulations that health agencies can follow in order to reduce the imminent impact of viruses like Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya. That includes fumigation, abatization, reducing the hatcheries, picking up trash, information campaigns. A basic question that arise when designing control strategies is about which and where these ones should focus. In other words, one would like to know whether preventing the contagion or decrease vector population, and in which area of the city, is more efficient. In this work, we propose risk indexes based on the idea of secondary cases from patch to patch. Thus, they take into account human mobility and indicate which patch has more chance to be a corridor for the spread of the disease and which is more vulnerable, i.e. more likely to have cases?. They can also indicate the neighborhood where hatchery control will reduce more the number of potential cases. In order to illustrate the usefulness of these indexes, we run a set of numerical simulations in a mathematical model that takes into account the urban mobility and the differences in population density among the areas of a city. If we label by i a particular neighborhood, the transmission risk index (TRi measures the potential secondary cases caused by a host in that neighborhood. The vector transmission risk index (VTRi measures the potential secondary cases caused by a vector. Finally, the vulnerability risk index (VRi measures the potential secondary cases in the neighborhood. Transmission indexes can be used to give geographical priority to some neighborhoods when applying prevention and control measures. On the other hand, the vulnerability index can be useful to implement monitoring campaigns or public health investment.

  4. WILD FIRE RISK MAP IN THE EASTERN STEPPE OF MONGOLIA USING SPATIAL MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Nasanbat

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

  5. Wild Fire Risk Map in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag

    2016-06-01

    Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

  6. Spatial clustering and local risk of leprosy in São Paulo, Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Although the detection rate is decreasing, the proportion of new cases with WHO grade 2 disability (G2D is increasing, creating concern among policy makers and the Brazilian government. This study aimed to identify spatial clustering of leprosy and classify high-risk areas in a major leprosy cluster using the SatScan method.Data were obtained including all leprosy cases diagnosed between January 2006 and December 2013. In addition to the clinical variable, information was also gathered regarding the G2D of the patient at diagnosis and after treatment. The Scan Spatial statistic test, developed by Kulldorff e Nagarwalla, was used to identify spatial clustering and to measure the local risk (Relative Risk-RR of leprosy. Maps considering these risks and their confidence intervals were constructed.A total of 434 cases were identified, including 188 (43.31% borderline leprosy and 101 (23.28% lepromatous leprosy cases. There was a predominance of males, with ages ranging from 15 to 59 years, and 51 patients (11.75% presented G2D. Two significant spatial clusters and three significant spatial-temporal clusters were also observed. The main spatial cluster (p = 0.000 contained 90 census tracts, a population of approximately 58,438 inhabitants, detection rate of 22.6 cases per 100,000 people and RR of approximately 3.41 (95%CI = 2.721-4.267. Regarding the spatial-temporal clusters, two clusters were observed, with RR ranging between 24.35 (95%CI = 11.133-52.984 and 15.24 (95%CI = 10.114-22.919.These findings could contribute to improvements in policies and programming, aiming for the eradication of leprosy in Brazil. The Spatial Scan statistic test was found to be an interesting resource for health managers and healthcare professionals to map the vulnerability of areas in terms of leprosy transmission risk and areas of underreporting.

  7. Spatial clustering and local risk of leprosy in São Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Antônio Carlos Vieira; Yamamura, Mellina; Arroyo, Luiz Henrique; Popolin, Marcela Paschoal; Chiaravalloti Neto, Francisco; Palha, Pedro Fredemir; Uchoa, Severina Alice da Costa; Pieri, Flávia Meneguetti; Pinto, Ione Carvalho; Fiorati, Regina Célia; Queiroz, Ana Angélica Rêgo de; Belchior, Aylana de Souza; Dos Santos, Danielle Talita; Garcia, Maria Concebida da Cunha; Crispim, Juliane de Almeida; Alves, Luana Seles; Berra, Thaís Zamboni; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre

    2017-02-01

    Although the detection rate is decreasing, the proportion of new cases with WHO grade 2 disability (G2D) is increasing, creating concern among policy makers and the Brazilian government. This study aimed to identify spatial clustering of leprosy and classify high-risk areas in a major leprosy cluster using the SatScan method. Data were obtained including all leprosy cases diagnosed between January 2006 and December 2013. In addition to the clinical variable, information was also gathered regarding the G2D of the patient at diagnosis and after treatment. The Scan Spatial statistic test, developed by Kulldorff e Nagarwalla, was used to identify spatial clustering and to measure the local risk (Relative Risk-RR) of leprosy. Maps considering these risks and their confidence intervals were constructed. A total of 434 cases were identified, including 188 (43.31%) borderline leprosy and 101 (23.28%) lepromatous leprosy cases. There was a predominance of males, with ages ranging from 15 to 59 years, and 51 patients (11.75%) presented G2D. Two significant spatial clusters and three significant spatial-temporal clusters were also observed. The main spatial cluster (p = 0.000) contained 90 census tracts, a population of approximately 58,438 inhabitants, detection rate of 22.6 cases per 100,000 people and RR of approximately 3.41 (95%CI = 2.721-4.267). Regarding the spatial-temporal clusters, two clusters were observed, with RR ranging between 24.35 (95%CI = 11.133-52.984) and 15.24 (95%CI = 10.114-22.919). These findings could contribute to improvements in policies and programming, aiming for the eradication of leprosy in Brazil. The Spatial Scan statistic test was found to be an interesting resource for health managers and healthcare professionals to map the vulnerability of areas in terms of leprosy transmission risk and areas of underreporting.

  8. A spatially-evaluated methodology for assessing risk to a population from contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gay, J. Rebecca; Korre, Anna

    2006-01-01

    A methodology is proposed which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land, in a manner which preserves the spatial distribution of risks and provides a measure of uncertainty in the assessment. Maps of soil contaminant levels, which incorporate uncertainty, are produced from sparse sample data using sequential indicator simulation. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. An abundance of information is contained in results which can be interrogated at the population and individual level, and mapped to provide a powerful visual tool for risk managers, enabling efficient targeting of risk reduction measures to different locations. - A methodology for calculating and mapping risks to a population from intake of soil contaminants

  9. Environmental risk of leptospirosis infections in the Netherlands: Spatial modelling of environmental risk factors of leptospirosis in the Netherlands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ente J J Rood

    Full Text Available Leptospirosis is a globally emerging zoonotic disease, associated with various climatic, biotic and abiotic factors. Mapping and quantifying geographical variations in the occurrence of leptospirosis and the surrounding environment offer innovative methods to study disease transmission and to identify associations between the disease and the environment. This study aims to investigate geographic variations in leptospirosis incidence in the Netherlands and to identify associations with environmental factors driving the emergence of the disease. Individual case data derived over the period 1995-2012 in the Netherlands were geocoded and aggregated by municipality. Environmental covariate data were extracted for each municipality and stored in a spatial database. Spatial clusters were identified using kernel density estimations and quantified using local autocorrelation statistics. Associations between the incidence of leptospirosis and the local environment were determined using Simultaneous Autoregressive Models (SAR explicitly modelling spatial dependence of the model residuals. Leptospirosis incidence rates were found to be spatially clustered, showing a marked spatial pattern. Fitting a spatial autoregressive model significantly improved model fit and revealed significant association between leptospirosis and the coverage of arable land, built up area, grassland and sabulous clay soils. The incidence of leptospirosis in the Netherlands could effectively be modelled using a combination of soil and land-use variables accounting for spatial dependence of incidence rates per municipality. The resulting spatially explicit risk predictions provide an important source of information which will benefit clinical awareness on potential leptospirosis infections in endemic areas.

  10. Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas Based on Spatial Analytics and Social Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Costas Armenakis

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood maps alone are not sufficient to determine and assess the risks to people, property, infrastructure, and services due to a flood event. Simply put, the risk is almost zero to minimum if the flooded region is “empty” (i.e., unpopulated, has not properties, no industry, no infrastructure, and no socio-economic activity. High spatial resolution Earth Observation (EO data can contribute to the generation and updating of flood risk maps based on several aspects including population, economic development, and critical infrastructure, which can enhance a city’s flood mitigation and preparedness planning. In this case study for the Don River watershed, Toronto, the flood risk is determined and flood risk index maps are generated by implementing a methodology for estimating risk based on the geographic coverage of the flood hazard, vulnerability of people, and the exposure of large building structures to flood water. Specifically, the spatial flood risk index maps have been generated through analytical spatial modeling which takes into account the areas in which a flood hazard is expected to occur, the terrain’s morphological characteristics, socio-economic parameters based on demographic data, and the density of large building complexes. Generated flood risk maps are verified through visual inspection with 3D city flood maps. Findings illustrate that areas of higher flood risk coincide with areas of high flood hazard and social and building exposure vulnerability.

  11. Relative risk of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: a spatial analysis in urban area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valdelaine Etelvina Miranda de Araújo

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is a vector-borne disease whose factors involved in transmission are poorly understood, especially in more urban and densely populated counties. In Brazil, the VL urbanization is a challenge for the control program. The goals were to identify the greater risk areas for human VL and the risk factors involved in transmission. METHODOLOGY: This is an ecological study on the relative risk of human VL. Spatial units of analysis were the coverage areas of the Basic Health Units (146 small-areas of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Human VL cases, from 2007 to 2009 (n = 412, were obtained in the Brazilian Reportable Disease Information System. Bayesian approach was used to model the relative risk of VL including potential risk factors involved in transmission (canine infection, socioeconomic and environmental features and to identify the small-areas of greater risk to human VL. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The relative risk of VL was shown to be correlated with income, education, and the number of infected dogs per inhabitants. The estimates of relative risk of VL were higher than 1.0 in 54% of the areas (79/146. The spatial modeling highlighted 14 areas with the highest relative risk of VL and 12 of them are concentrated in the northern region of the city. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis used in this study is useful for the identification of small-areas according to risk of human VL and presents operational applicability in control and surveillance program in an urban environment with an unequal spatial distribution of the disease. Thus the frequent monitoring of relative risk of human VL in small-areas is important to direct and prioritize the actions of the control program in urban environment, especially in big cities.

  12. Spatial distribution and risk factors of influenza in Jiangsu province, China, based on geographical information system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Cheng Zhang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza poses a constant, heavy burden on society. Recent research has focused on ecological factors associated with influenza incidence and has also studied influenza with respect to its geographic spread at different scales. This research explores the temporal and spatial parameters of influenza and identifies factors influencing its transmission. A spatial autocorrelation analysis, a spatial-temporal cluster analysis and a spatial regression analysis of influenza rates, carried out in Jiangsu province from 2004 to 2011, found that influenza rates to be spatially dependent in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. South-western districts consistently revealed hotspots of high-incidence influenza. The regression analysis indicates that railways, rivers and lakes are important predictive environmental variables for influenza risk. A better understanding of the epidemic pattern and ecological factors associated with pandemic influenza should benefit public health officials with respect to prevention and controlling measures during future epidemics.

  13. Bank Risk Profile, Good Corporate Governance And Company Values in Banking Companies Go Public in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Susi Retna Cahyaningtyas; Elin Erlina Sasanti; Wahidatul Husnaini

    2017-01-01

    The latest Bank Indonesia Regulation No.14/18/PBI/2012 requires bank to have minimum capital of 8%-14% depends on the risk profile of each bank. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to assess whether the total of inherent risk profile of each bank meets the terms of this regulation. In addition, this study aims to examine the impact of inherent risk profile and GCG on the banking company value. The sample in this study is determined by purposive sampling method and resulted in 24...

  14. Prevalence, risk factors and spatial analysis of liver fluke infections in Danish cattle herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Abbey; Frankena, Klaas; Bødker, Rene

    2015-01-01

    fitted the observed spatial pattern. Results: During the investigated period (2011-2013), an increase in annual herd prevalence was noted (2011-25.6%; 2012-28.4%; 2013-29.3%). The spatial analysis suggested significant clustering of positive and negative herds. Presence of streams, wetlands and pastures...... on farms showed a significant association with the presence of infection in cattle herds. Buying animals from positive herds was a risk factor on conventional farms. Additionally, risk of being infected with Fasciola hepatica was higher in non-dairy herds of medium size (>= 30 and ... to dairy and large (>= 100) cattle herds. The observed spatial pattern could be reproduced by predictions of the risk factor model. Conclusions: This study showed an increase in annual herd level prevalence (2011 to 2013) indicating that an increasing proportion of herds are infected with Fasciola hepatica...

  15. The Diverse Risk Profiles of Persistently Absent Primary Students: Implications for Attendance Policies in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, Kirsten J.; Mitrou, Francis; Taylor, Catherine L.; Zubrick, Stephen R.

    2018-01-01

    The risk factors associated with absenteeism are well known. However, children's exposure to combinations of risks and how these relate to absence patterns remains unclear. Understanding variations in risk profiles among persistently non-attending children will inform the development of absence interventions. Using a longitudinal sample of…

  16. Mexican American Adolescents' Profiles of Risk and Mental Health: A Person-Centered Longitudinal Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeiders, Katharine H.; Roosa, Mark W.; Knight, George P.; Gonzales, Nancy A.

    2013-01-01

    Although Mexican American adolescents experience multiple risk factors in their daily lives, most research examines the influences of risk factors on adjustment independently, ignoring the additive and interactive effects of multiple risk factors. Guided by a person-centered perspective and utilizing latent profile analysis, this study identified…

  17. Gender Differences in Risk/Protection Profiles for Low Academic Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitney, Stephen D.; Renner, Lynette M.; Herrenkohl, Todd I.

    2010-01-01

    Using holistic-interactionistic theory, the simultaneous nature of risk and protection factors for both males and females (age 6-11 in Wave 1) is examined using latent profile analysis (LPA). Risk/protection classes are estimated using multiple risk factor variables (e.g., physical child abuse) and multiple protective factors (e.g.,…

  18. A framework for widespread replication of a highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dohyeong; Galeano, M Alicia Overstreet; Hull, Andrew; Miranda, Marie Lynn

    2008-12-01

    Preventive approaches to childhood lead poisoning are critical for addressing this longstanding environmental health concern. Moreover, increasing evidence of cognitive effects of blood lead levels system-based childhood lead exposure risk models, especially if executed at highly resolved spatial scales, can help identify children most at risk of lead exposure, as well as prioritize and direct housing and health-protective intervention programs. However, developing highly resolved spatial data requires labor-and time-intensive geocoding and analytical processes. In this study we evaluated the benefit of increased effort spent geocoding in terms of improved performance of lead exposure risk models. We constructed three childhood lead exposure risk models based on established methods but using different levels of geocoded data from blood lead surveillance, county tax assessors, and the 2000 U.S. Census for 18 counties in North Carolina. We used the results to predict lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit. The models performed well enough to identify high-risk areas for targeted intervention, even with a relatively low level of effort on geocoding. This study demonstrates the feasibility of widespread replication of highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk models. The models guide resource-constrained local health and housing departments and community-based organizations on how best to expend their efforts in preventing and mitigating lead exposure risk in their communities.

  19. A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

    2015-12-15

    Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. Risk mapping of Rinderpest sero-prevalence in Central and Southern Somalia based on spatial and network risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Pelaez, Angel; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Tempia, Stefano; Otieno, F Tom; Aden, Hussein H; Costagli, Riccardo

    2010-04-28

    In contrast to most pastoral systems, the Somali livestock production system is oriented towards domestic trade and export with seasonal movement patterns of herds/flocks in search of water and pasture and towards export points. Data from a rinderpest survey and other data sources have been integrated to explore the topology of a contact network of cattle herds based on a spatial proximity criterion and other attributes related to cattle herd dynamics. The objective of the study is to integrate spatial mobility and other attributes with GIS and network approaches in order to develop a predictive spatial model of presence of rinderpest. A spatial logistic regression model was fitted using data for 562 point locations. It includes three statistically significant continuous-scale variables that increase the risk of rinderpest: home range radius, herd density and clustering coefficient of the node of the network whose link was established if the sum of the home ranges of every pair of nodes was equal or greater than the shortest distance between the points. The sensitivity of the model is 85.1% and the specificity 84.6%, correctly classifying 84.7% of the observations. The spatial autocorrelation not accounted for by the model is negligible and visual assessment of a semivariogram of the residuals indicated that there was no undue amount of spatial autocorrelation. The predictive model was applied to a set of 6176 point locations covering the study area. Areas at high risk of having serological evidence of rinderpest are located mainly in the coastal districts of Lower and Middle Juba, the coastal area of Lower Shabele and in the regions of Middle Shabele and Bay. There are also isolated spots of high risk along the border with Kenya and the southern area of the border with Ethiopia. The identification of point locations and areas with high risk of presence of rinderpest and their spatial visualization as a risk map will be useful for informing the prioritization of

  1. Bank Risk Profile, Good Corporate Governance And Company Values in Banking Companies Go Public in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susi Retna Cahyaningtyas

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The latest Bank Indonesia Regulation No.14/18/PBI/2012 requires bank to have minimum capital of 8%-14% depends on the risk profile of each bank. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to assess whether the total of inherent risk profile of each bank meets the terms of this regulation. In addition, this study aims to examine the impact of inherent risk profile and GCG on the banking company value. The sample in this study is determined by purposive sampling method and resulted in 24 banks or 72 observations during 2011-2013. The results showed that 23 banks had low risk and low to moderate risk, and only one bank had moderate risk. The results also showed that inherent risk profile rating is equivalent to capital adequacy. In other words, inherent risk profile of these banks have complied with Bank Indonesia Regulation No.14/18/PBI/2012. Furthermore, this study indicated that GCG has significant and positive influence on the company value, while the inherent risk has no influence on the company value. Overall, this study suggest that go public banks in Indonesia are one of good alternative means of investment for its soundness as reflected by the fulfillment of minimum capital ratio required by the regulator.

  2. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies - a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.......5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co......-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters...

  3. Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2015-04-01

    Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  4. Spatial and temporal variation in evacuee risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebeneck, Laura K; Cova, Thomas J

    2012-09-01

    Developing effective evacuation and return-entry plans requires understanding the spatial and temporal dimensions of risk perception experienced by evacuees throughout a disaster event. Using data gathered from the 2008 Cedar Rapids, Iowa Flood, this article explores how risk perception and location influence evacuee behavior during the evacuation and return-entry process. Three themes are discussed: (1) the spatial and temporal characteristics of risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process, (2) the relationship between risk perception and household compliance with return-entry orders, and (3) the role social influences have on the timing of the return by households. The results indicate that geographic location and spatial variation of risk influenced household risk perception and compliance with return-entry plans. In addition, sociodemographic characteristics influenced the timing and characteristics of the return groups. The findings of this study advance knowledge of evacuee behavior throughout a disaster and can inform strategies used by emergency managers throughout the evacuation and return-entry process. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Fano lineshapes of 'Peak-tracking chip' spatial profiles analyzed with correlation analysis for bioarray imaging and refractive index sensing

    KAUST Repository

    Bougot-Robin, K.

    2013-05-22

    The asymmetric Fano resonance lineshapes, resulting from interference between background and a resonant scattering, is archetypal in resonant waveguide grating (RWG) reflectivity. Resonant profile shift resulting from a change of refractive index (from fluid medium or biomolecules at the chip surface) is classically used to perform label-free sensing. Lineshapes are sometimes sampled at discretized “detuning” values to relax instrumental demands, the highest reflectivity element giving a coarse resonance estimate. A finer extraction, needed to increase sensor sensitivity, can be obtained using a correlation approach, correlating the sensed signal to a zero-shifted reference signal. Fabrication process is presented leading to discrete Fano profiles. Our findings are illustrated with resonance profiles from silicon nitride RWGs operated at visible wavelengths. We recently demonstrated that direct imaging multi-assay RWGs sensing may be rendered more reliable using “chirped” RWG chips, by varying a RWG structure parameter. Then, the spatial reflectivity profiles of tracks composed of RWGs units with slowly varying filling factor (thus slowly varying resonance condition) are measured under monochromatic conditions. Extracting the resonance location using spatial Fano profiles allows multiplex refractive index based sensing. Discretization and sensitivity are discussed both through simulation and experiment for different filling factor variation, here Δf=0.0222 and Δf=0.0089. This scheme based on a “Peak-tracking chip” demonstrates a new technique for bioarray imaging using a simpler set-up that maintains high performance with cheap lenses, with down to Δn=2×10-5 RIU sensitivity for the highest sampling of Fano lineshapes. © (2013) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

  6. Fano lineshapes of 'Peak-tracking chip' spatial profiles analyzed with correlation analysis for bioarray imaging and refractive index sensing

    KAUST Repository

    Bougot-Robin, K.; Li, S.; Yue, W.; Chen, L. Q.; Zhang, Xixiang; Wen, W. J.; Benisty, H.

    2013-01-01

    The asymmetric Fano resonance lineshapes, resulting from interference between background and a resonant scattering, is archetypal in resonant waveguide grating (RWG) reflectivity. Resonant profile shift resulting from a change of refractive index (from fluid medium or biomolecules at the chip surface) is classically used to perform label-free sensing. Lineshapes are sometimes sampled at discretized “detuning” values to relax instrumental demands, the highest reflectivity element giving a coarse resonance estimate. A finer extraction, needed to increase sensor sensitivity, can be obtained using a correlation approach, correlating the sensed signal to a zero-shifted reference signal. Fabrication process is presented leading to discrete Fano profiles. Our findings are illustrated with resonance profiles from silicon nitride RWGs operated at visible wavelengths. We recently demonstrated that direct imaging multi-assay RWGs sensing may be rendered more reliable using “chirped” RWG chips, by varying a RWG structure parameter. Then, the spatial reflectivity profiles of tracks composed of RWGs units with slowly varying filling factor (thus slowly varying resonance condition) are measured under monochromatic conditions. Extracting the resonance location using spatial Fano profiles allows multiplex refractive index based sensing. Discretization and sensitivity are discussed both through simulation and experiment for different filling factor variation, here Δf=0.0222 and Δf=0.0089. This scheme based on a “Peak-tracking chip” demonstrates a new technique for bioarray imaging using a simpler set-up that maintains high performance with cheap lenses, with down to Δn=2×10-5 RIU sensitivity for the highest sampling of Fano lineshapes. © (2013) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

  7. Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees

    2013-04-01

    In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and

  8. Literacy Profiles of At-Risk Young Adults Enrolled in Career and Technical Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellard, Daryl F.; Woods, Kari L.; Lee, Jae Hoon

    2016-01-01

    A latent profile analysis of 323 economically and academically at-risk adolescent and young adult learners yielded two classes: an average literacy class (92%) and a low literacy class (8%). The class profiles significantly differed in their word reading and math skills, and in their processing speeds and self-reported learning disabilities. The…

  9. Determinants of attaining and maintaining a low cardiovascular risk profile--the Doetinchem Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulsegge, Gerben; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Daviglus, Martha L; Smit, Henriëtte A; Verschuren, W M Monique

    2016-02-01

    While maintenance of a low cardiovascular risk profile is essential for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, few people maintain a low CVD risk profile throughout their life. We studied the association of demographic, lifestyle, psychological factors and family history of CVD with attainment and maintenance of a low risk profile over three subsequent 5-year periods. Measurements of 6390 adults aged 26-65 years at baseline were completed from 1993 to 97 and subsequently at 5-year intervals until 2013. At each wave, participants were categorized into low risk profile (ideal levels of blood pressure, cholesterol and body mass index, non-smoking and no diabetes) and medium/high risk profile (all others). Multivariable-adjusted modified Poisson regression analyses were used to examine determinants of attainment and maintenance of low risk; risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were obtained. Generalized estimating equations were used to combine multiple 5-year comparisons. Younger age, female gender and high educational level were associated with higher likelihood of both maintaining and attaining low risk profile (P risk was 9% higher with each 1-unit increment in Mediterranean diet score (RR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.02-1.16), twice as high with any physical activity versus none (RR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.16-4.04) and 35% higher with moderate alcohol consumption versus heavy consumption (RR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.06-1.73). Healthy lifestyle factors such as adherence to a Mediterranean diet, physical activity and moderate as opposed to heavy alcohol consumption were associated with a higher likelihood of attaining a low risk profile. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  10. Comparing risk profiles of individuals diagnosed with diabetes by OGTT and HbA1c

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borg, R.; Vistisen, D.; Witte, D.R.

    2010-01-01

    Glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) has been proposed as an alternative to the oral glucose tolerance test for diagnosing diabetes. We compared the cardiovascular risk profile of individuals identified by these two alternative methods.......Glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) has been proposed as an alternative to the oral glucose tolerance test for diagnosing diabetes. We compared the cardiovascular risk profile of individuals identified by these two alternative methods....

  11. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents. -- Highlights: •Climate risks to energy infrastructures adversely impact energy security. •Case studies of a port and a railway show their future climate change vulnerability. •Managing climate-induced risks through preventive adaptation policies

  12. Spatial epidemiology of cancer: a review of data sources, methods and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Roquette

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Cancer is a major concern among chronic diseases today. Spatial epidemiology plays a relevant role in this matter and we present here a review of this subject, including a discussion of the literature in terms of the level of geographic data aggregation, risk factors and methods used to analyse the spatial distribution of patterns and spatial clusters. For this purpose, we performed a websearch in the Pubmed and Web of Science databases including studies published between 1979 and 2015. We found 180 papers from 63 journals and noted that spatial epidemiology of cancer has been addressed with more emphasis during the last decade with research based on data mostly extracted from cancer registries and official mortality statistics. In general, the research questions present in the reviewed papers can be classified into three different sets: i analysis of spatial distribution of cancer and/or its temporal evolution; ii risk factors; iii development of data analysis methods and/or evaluation of results obtained from application of existing methods. This review is expected to help promote research in this area through the identification of relevant knowledge gaps. Cancer’s spatial epidemiology represents an important concern, mainly for public health policies design aimed to minimise the impact of chronic disease in specific populations.

  13. Optimization of urban spatial development against flooding and other climate risks, and wider sustainability objectives

    OpenAIRE

    Caparros-Midwood Daniel; Dawson Richard; Barr Stuart

    2016-01-01

    A spatial optimization framework has been developed to help urban areas mitigate climate risks such as flooding and to curb resource use and greenhouse gas emissions. Measures required to address these issues often conflict with each other, for example more compact cities typically use less energy for transportation but increase runoff from high intensity rainfall events. Balancing potential trade-offs and maximizing synergies between these risks and vulnerabilities is therefore a multi-dimen...

  14. Modeling tumor control probability for spatially inhomogeneous risk of failure based on clinical outcome data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lühr, Armin; Löck, Steffen; Jakobi, Annika

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: Objectives of this work are (1) to derive a general clinically relevant approach to model tumor control probability (TCP) for spatially variable risk of failure and (2) to demonstrate its applicability by estimating TCP for patients planned for photon and proton irradiation. METHODS AND ...

  15. Generation of a landslide risk index map for Cuba using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castellanos Abella, E.A.

    2007-01-01

    his paper explains the procedure for the generation of a landslide risk index map at national level in Cuba, using a semiquantitative model with ten indicator maps and a cell size of 90× 90 m. The model was designed and implemented using spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques in a GIS system.

  16. Thermal conductivity profile determination in proton-irradiated ZrC by spatial and frequency scanning thermal wave methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, C.; Chirtoc, M.; Horny, N.; Antoniow, J. S.; Pron, H.; Ban, H.

    2013-01-01

    Using complementary thermal wave methods, the irradiation damaged region of zirconium carbide (ZrC) is characterized by quantifiably profiling the thermophysical property degradation. The ZrC sample was irradiated by a 2.6 MeV proton beam at 600 °C to a dose of 1.75 displacements per atom. Spatial scanning techniques including scanning thermal microscopy (SThM), lock-in infrared thermography (lock-in IRT), and photothermal radiometry (PTR) were used to directly map the in-depth profile of thermal conductivity on a cross section of the ZrC sample. The advantages and limitations of each system are discussed and compared, finding consistent results from all techniques. SThM provides the best resolution finding a very uniform thermal conductivity envelope in the damaged region measuring ∼52 ± 2 μm deep. Frequency-based scanning PTR provides quantification of the thermal parameters of the sample using the SThM measured profile to provide validation of a heating model. Measured irradiated and virgin thermal conductivities are found to be 11.9 ± 0.5 W m −1 K −1 and 26.7 ±1 W m −1 K −1 , respectively. A thermal resistance evidenced in the frequency spectra of the PTR results was calculated to be (1.58 ± 0.1) × 10 −6 m 2 K W −1 . The measured thermal conductivity values compare well with the thermal conductivity extracted from the SThM calibrated signal and the spatially scanned PTR. Combined spatial and frequency scanning techniques are shown to provide a valuable, complementary combination for thermal property characterization of proton-irradiated ZrC. Such methodology could be useful for other studies of ion-irradiated materials

  17. Spatial scale effects in environmental risk-factor modelling for diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ram K. Raghavan

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Studies attempting to identify environmental risk factors for diseases can be seen to extract candidate variables from remotely sensed datasets, using a single buffer-zone surrounding locations from where disease status are recorded. A retrospective case-control study using canine leptospirosis data was conducted to verify the effects of changing buffer-zones (spatial extents on the risk factors derived. The case-control study included 94 case dogs predominantly selected based on positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR test for leptospires in urine, and 185 control dogs based on negative PCR. Land cover features from National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD and Kansas Gap Analysis Program (KS GAP around geocoded addresses of cases/controls were extracted using multiple buffers at every 500 m up to 5,000 m, and multivariable logistic models were used to estimate the risk of different land cover variables to dogs. The types and statistical significance of risk factors identified changed with an increase in spatial extent in both datasets. Leptospirosis status in dogs was significantly associated with developed high-intensity areas in models that used variables extracted from spatial extents of 500-2000 m, developed medium-intensity areas beyond 2,000 m and up to 3,000 m, and evergreen forests beyond 3,500 m and up to 5,000 m in individual models in the NLCD. Significant associations were seen in urban areas in models that used variables extracted from spatial extents of 500-2,500 m and forest/woodland areas beyond 2,500 m and up to 5,000 m in individual models in Kansas gap analysis programme datasets. The use of ad hoc spatial extents can be misleading or wrong, and the determination of an appropriate spatial extent is critical when extracting environmental variables for studies. Potential work-arounds for this problem are discussed.

  18. Risk profile in young patients with acute myocardial infarction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Safdar, M.H.K.; Fazal, I.; Ejaz, A.; Awan, Z.I.

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the frequency of risk factors in young patients with acute myocardial infarction and thus with ischemic heart disease (IHD), aged 20 to 40 years, in our population. All patients who fulfilled the inclusion criteria who presented to emergency reception of the hospital with a diagnosis of Acute MI were included. The patients were admitted to coronary care unit (CCU) and were managed for Acute myocardial infarction (MI). Their detailed history was then taken including symptoms at presentation and their risk factors were assessed with the help of history and laboratory investigations. A total of 137 patients were included during the study period. Mean age was 36 years (SD=3.67). Majority of patients were males. Smoking was the major risk factor (64.2%) followed by family history of IHD (30.7%). Most frequent risk factor for Acute myocardial infarction (MI) at young age is smoking followed by family history. (author)

  19. Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2014-05-01

    The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

  20. Risk profile of young people admitted to hospital for suicidal behaviour in Melbourne, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borschmann, Rohan; Stark, Patrick; Prakash, Chidambaram; Sawyer, Susan M

    2018-05-20

    Self-harm and suicidal behaviour is most prevalent during adolescence, but little is known about the risk profile of adolescents admitted to hospital for suicidal behaviour. Young people who self-harm are at an increased risk of mortality compared to those who do not self-harm; adolescents admitted to hospital for suicidal behaviour are particularly at risk. The aim of this study was to generate a risk profile of adolescents admitted to hospital with suicidal behaviour. We conducted a 12-month retrospective audit of adolescent admissions to the mental health inpatient unit at a tertiary children's hospital in Melbourne, Australia. Routinely collected data were used to generate a risk profile. We found that 212 of 271 (78.2%) admissions were due to suicidal behaviour. Of these, 107 (51%) adolescents were diagnosed with one or more mental disorders at discharge, most commonly major depressive disorder. Beyond known distal determinants of health risk, the proximal risk profile of these adolescents included factors relating to gender, substance use, prior mental health diagnoses and prior admission to hospital. Poor sleep was also a risk factor, with 159 (75%) reporting a recent history of sleeping problems. The very high proportion of admissions to the mental health inpatient unit due to suicidal behaviour reinforces the importance of finding effective methods of identification of the risk processes underpinning suicidal behaviours to reduce the unnecessary waste of young lives by suicide. © 2018 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  1. Anxiety and Mood Clinical Profile following Sport-related Concussion: From Risk Factors to Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandel, Natalie; Reynolds, Erin; Cohen, Paul E; Gillie, Brandon L; Kontos, Anthony P

    2017-08-01

    Conceptual models for assessing and treating sport-related concussion (SRC) have evolved from a homogenous approach to include different clinical profiles that reflect the heterogeneous nature of this injury and its effects. There are six identified clinical profiles, or subtypes from SRC, and one such clinical profile is the anxiety/mood profile. Athletes with this profile experience predominant emotional disturbance and anxiety following SRC. The purpose of this targeted review was to present an overview of the empirical evidence to support factors contributing to the anxiety/mood profile, along with methods of evaluation and treatment of this clinical profile following SRC. We discuss the potential underlying mechanisms and risk factors for this clinical profile, describe comprehensive assessments to evaluate concussed athletes with an anxiety/mood clinical profile, and explore behavioral and other interventions for treating these athletes. Although there is limited, but growing empirical evidence for the anxiety/mood clinical profile following SRC, understanding this clinical profile is germane for clinicians who are treating athletes with emotional sequelae after SRC.

  2. Risk Profiles for Endometriosis in Japanese Women: Results From a Repeated Survey of Self-Reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasui, Toshiyuki; Hayashi, Kunihiko; Nagai, Kazue; Mizunuma, Hideki; Kubota, Toshiro; Lee, Jung-Su; Suzuki, Shosuke

    2015-01-01

    Background The prevalence and risk factors for endometriosis may differ according to diagnosis methodologies, such as study populations and diagnostic accuracy. We examined risk profiles in imaging-diagnosed endometriosis with and without surgical confirmation in a large population of Japanese women, as well as the differences in risk profiles of endometriosis based on history of infertility. Methods Questionnaires that included items on sites of endometriosis determined by imaging techniques and surgical procedure were mailed to 1025 women who self-reported endometriosis in a baseline survey of the Japan Nurses’ Health Study (n = 15 019). Results Two hundred and ten women had surgically confirmed endometriosis (Group A), 120 had imaging-diagnosed endometriosis without a surgical procedure (Group B), and 264 had adenomyosis (Group C). A short menstrual cycle at 18–22 years of age and cigarette smoking at 30 years of age were associated with significantly increased risk of endometriosis (Group A plus Group B), while older age was associated with risk of adenomyosis (Group C). In women with a history of infertility, a short menstrual cycle was associated with a significantly increased risk of endometriosis in both Group A and Group B, but risk profiles of endometriosis were different between Group A and Group B in women without a history of infertility. Conclusions Women with surgically confirmed endometriosis and those with imaging-diagnosed endometriosis without surgery have basically common risk profiles, but these risk profiles are different from those with adenomyosis. The presence of a history of infertility should be taken into consideration for evaluation of risk profiles. PMID:25716280

  3. Sub-nA spatially resolved conductivity profiling of surface and interface defects in ceria films

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Farrow

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Spatial variability of conductivity in ceria is explored using scanning probe microscopy with galvanostatic control. Ionically blocking electrodes are used to probe the conductivity under opposite polarities to reveal possible differences in the defect structure across a thin film of CeO2. Data suggest the existence of a large spatial inhomogeneity that could give rise to constant phase elements during standard electrochemical characterization, potentially affecting the overall conductivity of films on the macroscale. The approach discussed here can also be utilized for other mixed ionic electronic conductor systems including memristors and electroresistors, as well as physical systems such as ferroelectric tunneling barriers.

  4. Phase transitions in local equation-of-state approximation and anomalies of spatial charge profiles in non-uniform plasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chigvintsev, A. Yu; Zorina, I. G.; Noginova, L. Yu; Iosilevskiy, I. L.

    2018-01-01

    Impressive appearance of discontinuities in equilibrium spatial charge profiles in non-uniform Coulomb systems is under discussions in wide number of thermoelectrostatics problems. Such discontinuities are considered as peculiar micro-level manifestation of phase transitions and intrinsic macro-level non-ideality effects in local equation of state (EOS), which should be used for description of non-ideal ionic subsystem in frames of local-density (or “pseudofluid”, or “jellium” etc) approximation. Such discontinuities were discussed already by the authors for electronic subsystems. Special emphasis is made in present paper on the mentioned above non-ideality effects in non-uniform ionic subsystems, such as micro-ions profile within screening “cloud” around macro-ion in complex (dusty, colloid etc) plasmas, equilibrium charge profile in ionic traps or (and) in the neighborhood vicinity of “charged wall” etc). Multiphase EOS for simplified ionic model of classical charged hard spheres on uniformly compressible electrostatic compensating background was constructed and several illustrative examples of discussed discontinuous ionic profiles were calculated.

  5. A risk microbiological profile of the Australian red meat industry: risk ratings of hazard-product pairings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, John; Ross, Tom; Jenson, Ian; Pointon, Andrew

    2005-11-25

    A risk profile of microbial hazards across the supply continuum for the beef, sheep and goat meat industries was developed using both a qualitative tool and a semi-quantitative, spreadsheet tool, Risk Ranger. The latter is useful for highlighting factors contributing to food safety risk and for ranking the risk of various product/pathogen combinations. In the present profile the qualitative tool was used as a preliminary screen for a wide range of hazard-product pairings while Risk Ranger was used to rank in order of population health risk pairings for which quantitative data were available and for assessing the effect of hypothetical scenarios. 'High' risk hazard-product pairings identified were meals contaminated with Clostridium perfringens provided by caterers which have not implemented HACCP; kebabs cross-contaminated by Salmonella present in drip trays or served undercooked; meals served in the home cross-contaminated with Salmonella. 'Medium' risk hazard-product pairings identified were ready-to-eat meats contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes and which have extended shelf life; Uncooked Comminuted Fermented Meat (UCFM)/Salami contaminated with Enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) and Salmonella; undercooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC; kebabs contaminated by Salmonella under normal production or following final "flash" heating. Identified 'low' risk hazard-product pairings included cooked, ready-to-eat sausages contaminated with Salmonella; UCFM/Salami contaminated with L. monocytogenes; well-cooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC. The risk profile provides information of value to Australia's risk managers in the regulatory, processing and R&D sectors of the meat and meat processing industry for the purposes of identifying food safety risks in the industry and for prioritising risk management actions.

  6. A multivariate geostatistical approach to spatial representation of groundwater contamination using hydrochemistry and microbial community profiles.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mouser, P.J.; Rizzo, D.M.; Roling, W.F.M.; van Breukelen, B.M.

    2005-01-01

    Managers of landfill sites are faced with enormous challenges when attempting to detect and delineate leachate plumes with a limited number of monitoring wells, assess spatial and temporal trends for hundreds of contaminants, and design long-term monitoring (LTM) strategies. Subsurface microbial

  7. Using spatial information about recurrence risk for robust optimization of dose-painting prescription functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bender, Edward T.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a robust method for deriving dose-painting prescription functions using spatial information about the risk for disease recurrence. Methods: Spatial distributions of radiobiological model parameters are derived from distributions of recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. These model parameters are then used to derive optimal dose-painting prescription functions given a constant mean biologically effective dose. Results: An estimate for the optimal dose distribution can be derived based on spatial information about recurrence risk. Dose painting based on imaging markers that are moderately or poorly correlated with recurrence risk are predicted to potentially result in inferior disease control when compared the same mean biologically effective dose delivered uniformly. A robust optimization approach may partially mitigate this issue. Conclusions: The methods described here can be used to derive an estimate for a robust, patient-specific prescription function for use in dose painting. Two approximate scaling relationships were observed: First, the optimal choice for the maximum dose differential when using either a linear or two-compartment prescription function is proportional to R, where R is the Pearson correlation coefficient between a given imaging marker and recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. Second, the predicted maximum possible gain in tumor control probability for any robust optimization technique is nearly proportional to the square of R.

  8. Reproductive profiles and risk of breast cancer subtypes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brouckaert, Olivier; Rudolph, Anja; Laenen, Annouschka

    2017-01-01

    Background: Previous studies have shown that reproductive factors are differentially associated with breast cancer (BC) risk by subtypes. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between reproductive factors and BC subtypes, and whether these vary by age at diagnosis. Methods: We used...... pooled data on tumor markers (estrogen and progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2)) and reproductive risk factors (parity, age at first full-time pregnancy (FFTP) and age at menarche) from 28,095 patients with invasive BC from 34 studies participating in the Breast Cancer...... the risk for TNBC (OR = 0.78, CI 0.70-0.88, p diagnosis, whereas the association with luminal HER2-like BC was present only for early onset BC....

  9. Screening for prenatal substance use: development of the Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonkers, Kimberly A; Gotman, Nathan; Kershaw, Trace; Forray, Ariadna; Howell, Heather B; Rounsaville, Bruce J

    2010-10-01

    To report on the development of a questionnaire to screen for hazardous substance use in pregnant women and to compare the performance of the questionnaire with other drug and alcohol measures. Pregnant women were administered a modified TWEAK (Tolerance, Worried, Eye-openers, Amnesia, K[C] Cut Down) questionnaire, the 4Ps Plus questionnaire, items from the Addiction Severity Index, and two questions about domestic violence (N=2,684). The sample was divided into "training" (n=1,610) and "validation" (n=1,074) subsamples. We applied recursive partitioning class analysis to the responses from individuals in the training subsample that resulted in a three-item Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale. We examined sensitivity, specificity, and the fit of logistic regression models in the validation subsample to compare the performance of the Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale with the modified TWEAK and various scoring algorithms of the 4Ps. The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale is comprised of three informative questions that can be scored for high- or low-risk populations. The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale algorithm for low-risk populations was mostly highly predictive of substance use in the validation subsample (Akaike's Information Criterion=579.75, Nagelkerke R=0.27) with high sensitivity (91%) and adequate specificity (67%). The high-risk algorithm had lower sensitivity (57%) but higher specificity (88%). The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale is simple and flexible with good sensitivity and specificity. The Substance Use Risk Profile-Pregnancy scale can potentially detect a range of substances that may be abused. Clinicians need to further assess women with a positive screen to identify those who require treatment for alcohol or illicit substance use in pregnancy. III.

  10. Does fitness improve the cardiovascular risk profile in obese subjects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halland, H; Lønnebakken, M T; Saeed, S; Midtbø, H; Cramariuc, D; Gerdts, E

    2017-06-01

    Good cardiorespiratory fitness has been suggested to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease in obesity. We explored the association of fitness with the prevalences of major cardiovascular risk factor like hypertension (HT), diabetes and metabolic syndrome (MetS) in overweight and obese subjects. Clinical data from 491 participants in the FAT associated CardiOvasculaR dysfunction (FATCOR) study were analyzed. Physical fitness was assessed by ergospirometry, and subjects with at least good level of performance for age and sex were classified as fit. HT subtypes were identified from clinic and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure in combination. Diabetes was diagnosed by oral glucose tolerance test. MetS was defined by the American Heart Association and National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute criteria. The participants were on average 48 years old (60% women), and mean body mass index (BMI) was 32 kg/m 2 . 28% of study participants were classified as fit. Fitness was not associated with lower prevalences of HT or HT subtypes, diabetes, MetS or individual MetS components (all p > 0.05). In multivariable regression analysis, being fit was characterized by lower waist circumference, BMI risk factors like HT, diabetes or MetS. Given the strong association of cardiovascular risk factor burden with risk of clinical cardiovascular disease, these findings challenge the notion that fitness alone is associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease in obesity. Copyright © 2017 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Profile of coronary heart disease risk factors in first-year university ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There is substantial evidence that coronary heart disease risk factors are present in people of all ages. The extent to which the problem exists in university students in South Africa has not been confirmed in the literature and needs further investigation. The aim of the study was to profile the coronary heart disease risk factors ...

  12. A Comprehensive Profile of Health Risk Behaviors Among Students at a Small Canadian University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jennifer P.; McCarthy, Mary Jean; Herbert, Rosemary J.; Smith, Philip B.

    2009-01-01

    Despite recent attention to health promotion and illness prevention, young people continue to engage in a variety of risk behaviors, which may negatively influence current and future health status. The purpose of this study was to create a comprehensive profile of health risk behaviors among undergraduate students at the University of Prince…

  13. An exploration of spatial risk assessment for soil protection: estimating risk and establishing priority areas for soil protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibblewhite, M G; Bellamy, P H; Brewer, T R; Graves, A R; Dawson, C A; Rickson, R J; Truckell, I; Stuart, J

    2014-03-01

    Methods for the spatial estimation of risk of harm to soil by erosion by water and wind and by soil organic matter decline are explored. Rates of harm are estimated for combinations of soil type and land cover (as a proxy for hazard frequency) and used to estimate risk of soil erosion and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) for 1 km(2)pixels. Scenarios are proposed for defining the acceptability of risk of harm to soil: the most precautionary one corresponds to no net harm after natural regeneration of soil (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance of exceeding an erosion rate of soils and a carbon stock decline of 0 tha(-1)y(-1) for organic soils). Areas at higher and lower than possible acceptable risk are mapped. The veracity of boundaries is compromised if areas of unacceptable risk are mapped to administrative boundaries. Errors in monitoring change in risk of harm to soil and inadequate information on risk reduction measures' efficacy, at landscape scales, make it impossible to use or monitor quantitative targets for risk reduction adequately. The consequences for priority area definition of expressing varying acceptable risk of harm to soil as a varying probability of exceeding a fixed level of harm, or, a varying level of harm being exceeded with a fixed probability, are discussed. Soil data and predictive models for rates of harm to soil would need considerable development and validation to implement a priority area approach robustly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. The Spatial Distributions and Variations of Water Environmental Risk in Yinma River Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, Hui; Liu, Xingpeng; Zhang, Jiquan; Tong, Zhijun; Ji, Meichen

    2018-03-15

    Water environmental risk is the probability of the occurrence of events caused by human activities or the interaction of human activities and natural processes that will damage a water environment. This study proposed a water environmental risk index (WERI) model to assess the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin based on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and regional management ability indicators in a water environment. The data for each indicator were gathered from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal variations in water environmental risk using particle swarm optimization and the analytic hierarchy process (PSO-AHP) method. The results showed that the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2015. The risk level of the water environment was high in Changchun, while the risk levels in Yitong and Yongji were low. The research methods provide information to support future decision making by the risk managers in the Yinma River Basin, which is in a high-risk water environment. Moreover, water environment managers could reduce the risks by adjusting the indicators that affect water environmental risks.

  15. A Framework for Spatial Risk Assessments: Potential Impacts of Nonindigenous Invasive Species on Native Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig R. Allen

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Many populations of wild animals and plants are declining and face increasing threats from habitat fragmentation and loss as well as exposure to stressors ranging from toxicants to diseases to invasive nonindigenous species. We describe and demonstrate a spatially explicit ecological risk assessment that allows for the incorporation of a broad array of information that may influence the distribution of an invasive species, toxicants, or other stressors, and the incorporation of landscape variables that may influence the spread of a species or substances. The first step in our analyses is to develop species models and quantify spatial overlap between stressor and target organisms. Risk is assessed as the product of spatial overlap and a hazard index based on target species vulnerabilities to the stressor of interest. We illustrate our methods with an example in which the stressor is the ecologically destructive nonindigenous ant, Solenopsis invicta, and the targets are two declining vertebrate species in the state of South Carolina, USA. A risk approach that focuses on landscapes and that is explicitly spatial is of particular relevance as remaining undeveloped lands become increasingly uncommon and isolated and more important in the management and recovery of species and ecological systems. Effective ecosystem management includes the control of multiple stressors, including invasive species with large impacts, understanding where those impacts may be the most severe, and implementing management strategies to reduce impacts.

  16. The earthquake/seismic risk, vulnerability and capacity profile for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was carried out to understand the risks posed by earthquakes in Karonga based on roles and perception of stakeholders. Information was collected from several stakeholders who were found responding to earthquakes impacts in Karonga Town. The study found that several stakeholders, governmental and ...

  17. Profiling the environmental risk management of Chinese local environmental agencies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, G.; Zhang, L.; Mol, A.P.J.; Lu, Y.

    2013-01-01

    The increasing frequency and impact of environmental accidents have pushed the issue of environmental risk management (ERM) to the top of the Chinese governments’ agendas and popularized the term ‘emergency response.’ Although the boundary between environmental accidents and other types of accidents

  18. Dyadic Vulnerability and Risk Profiling for Elder Neglect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulmer, Terry; Paveza, Gregory; VandeWeerd, Carla; Fairchild, Susan; Guadagno, Lisa; Bolton-Blatt, Marguarette; Norman, Robert

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: Neglect of older adults accounts for 60% to 70% of all elder-mistreatment reports made to adult protective services. The purpose of this article is to report data from research, using a risk-and-vulnerability model, that captures the independent contributions of both the elder and the caregiver as they relate to the outcome of neglect.…

  19. Plasma lipid profile, atherogenic and coronary risk indices in some ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The incidence of chronic degenerative diseases like stroke and myocardial infarction in African subpopulations is reported to be increasing. In view of the association between dyslipidemia and these chronic degenerative diseases, we investigated some well-established cardiovascular risk factors (plasma cholesterol and ...

  20. Risk Factor Profile of Motorcycle Crash Victims in Rural Kenya ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Road traffic injuries involving motorcycles are increasing especially in rural Kenya resulting in both human and economic loss. This study was done to identify the risk factors and the host characteristics associated with motorcycle injury victims in rural setting so as to institute appropriate interventions for ...

  1. Risk profiles of infants ≥32 weeks' gestational age with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background. Infants in neonatal intensive care are at risk of swallowing difficulties, in particular oropharyngeal dysphagia (OPD) and oesophageal dysphagia (OD). OPD is treated by speech-language therapists while OD is managed by doctors. Diagnosis of dysphagia is a challenge as equipment for instrumental ...

  2. Efficient Computation of Exposure Profiles for Counterparty Credit Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaf, C.S.L.; Feng, Q.; Kandhai, D.; Oosterlee, C.W.

    2014-01-01

    Three computational techniques for approximation of counterparty exposure for financial derivatives are presented. The exposure can be used to quantify so-called Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) and Potential Future Exposure (PFE), which are of utmost importance for modern risk management in the

  3. Efficient computation of exposure profiles for counterparty credit risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.S.L. de Graaf (Kees); Q. Feng (Qian); B.D. Kandhai; C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

    2014-01-01

    htmlabstractThree computational techniques for approximation of counterparty exposure for financial derivatives are presented. The exposure can be used to quantify so-called Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) and Potential Future Exposure (PFE), which are of utmost importance for modern risk

  4. Risk Factor Profile of Motorcycle Crash Victims in Rural Kenya

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    protective gear, alcohol use and overloading of passengers were the main risk factors observed. Our observations call for more stringent regulations and .... poor ventilation and noisiness have been cited by previous authors as reasons why people are reluctant to use helmets (15). In a study conducted in the highly ...

  5. Micro-scale Spatial Clustering of Cholera Risk Factors in Urban Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Qifang; Azman, Andrew S; Satter, Syed Moinuddin; Khan, Azharul Islam; Ahmed, Dilruba; Riaj, Altaf Ahmed; Gurley, Emily S; Lessler, Justin

    2016-02-01

    Close interpersonal contact likely drives spatial clustering of cases of cholera and diarrhea, but spatial clustering of risk factors may also drive this pattern. Few studies have focused specifically on how exposures for disease cluster at small spatial scales. Improving our understanding of the micro-scale clustering of risk factors for cholera may help to target interventions and power studies with cluster designs. We selected sets of spatially matched households (matched-sets) near cholera case households between April and October 2013 in a cholera endemic urban neighborhood of Tongi Township in Bangladesh. We collected data on exposures to suspected cholera risk factors at the household and individual level. We used intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) to characterize clustering of exposures within matched-sets and households, and assessed if clustering depended on the geographical extent of the matched-sets. Clustering over larger spatial scales was explored by assessing the relationship between matched-sets. We also explored whether different exposures tended to appear together in individuals, households, and matched-sets. Household level exposures, including: drinking municipal supplied water (ICC = 0.97, 95%CI = 0.96, 0.98), type of latrine (ICC = 0.88, 95%CI = 0.71, 1.00), and intermittent access to drinking water (ICC = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.87, 1.00) exhibited strong clustering within matched-sets. As the geographic extent of matched-sets increased, the concordance of exposures within matched-sets decreased. Concordance between matched-sets of exposures related to water supply was elevated at distances of up to approximately 400 meters. Household level hygiene practices were correlated with infrastructure shown to increase cholera risk. Co-occurrence of different individual level exposures appeared to mostly reflect the differing domestic roles of study participants. Strong spatial clustering of exposures at a small spatial scale in a cholera endemic

  6. Micro-scale Spatial Clustering of Cholera Risk Factors in Urban Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qifang Bi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Close interpersonal contact likely drives spatial clustering of cases of cholera and diarrhea, but spatial clustering of risk factors may also drive this pattern. Few studies have focused specifically on how exposures for disease cluster at small spatial scales. Improving our understanding of the micro-scale clustering of risk factors for cholera may help to target interventions and power studies with cluster designs. We selected sets of spatially matched households (matched-sets near cholera case households between April and October 2013 in a cholera endemic urban neighborhood of Tongi Township in Bangladesh. We collected data on exposures to suspected cholera risk factors at the household and individual level. We used intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs to characterize clustering of exposures within matched-sets and households, and assessed if clustering depended on the geographical extent of the matched-sets. Clustering over larger spatial scales was explored by assessing the relationship between matched-sets. We also explored whether different exposures tended to appear together in individuals, households, and matched-sets. Household level exposures, including: drinking municipal supplied water (ICC = 0.97, 95%CI = 0.96, 0.98, type of latrine (ICC = 0.88, 95%CI = 0.71, 1.00, and intermittent access to drinking water (ICC = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.87, 1.00 exhibited strong clustering within matched-sets. As the geographic extent of matched-sets increased, the concordance of exposures within matched-sets decreased. Concordance between matched-sets of exposures related to water supply was elevated at distances of up to approximately 400 meters. Household level hygiene practices were correlated with infrastructure shown to increase cholera risk. Co-occurrence of different individual level exposures appeared to mostly reflect the differing domestic roles of study participants. Strong spatial clustering of exposures at a small spatial scale in a

  7. Psychosocial and clinical risk factor profiles in managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kentner, M; Ciré, L; Scholl, J

    2000-06-01

    Over the past 10 years the IAS Foundation has performed more than 15,000 PREVENT check-ups on managers. In addition to a comprehensive clinical program of preventive examinations, the main emphasis is placed on extensive counseling. This counseling centres not only on personal behaviour patterns affecting the individual's health, but also on the psychomental capabilities of the patient within the context of the psychosocial stresses in managerial positions. Three cross-sectional studies examined: (1) the major cardiovascular risk factors (n = 974), (2) the psychosocial structure (n = 2,800) and (3) the relationships between clinical risk factors and psychological structural features (n = 200). According to expectations, managers showed somewhat lower cardiovascular risk levels than did other professional groups. However, nearly 70% of them reported various unspecific, psychovegetative complaints. Managers were subdivided into four psychological types, each representing roughly one quarter of the series: Type 1: anxiety, tension (20.5%); Type 2: repression, lack of self-control (22.2%); Type 3: challenge, ambition, self-control (27.6%); Type 4: healthy living, with self-control (29.7%). Type 3 resembles most closely classic type A behaviour and is seen in a good quarter of the overall cohort. This may indicate that not only people showing type A behaviour are predestined to occupy managerial positions, but that people with a type B structure also take up managerial positions. It is, however, in particular the type B behavioural patterns that are also associated with increased psychovegetative complaints. The relationships between psychosocial structural variables and clinical risk factors such as hypercholesteremia and high blood pressure are not very strong. Occupational health measures in organisations should also be established for managers, as they present an important employee group within the enterprise. In addition to examining them for cardiovascular risks

  8. Creating a spatially-explicit index: a method for assessing the global wildfire-water risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    The wildfire-water risk (WWR) has been defined as the potential for wildfires to adversely affect water resources that are important for downstream ecosystems and human water needs for adequate water quantity and quality, therefore compromising the security of their water supply. While tools and methods are numerous for watershed-scale risk analysis, the development of a toolbox for the large-scale evaluation of the wildfire risk to water security has only started recently. In order to provide managers and policy-makers with an adequate tool, we implemented a method for the spatial analysis of the global WWR based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. As this approach heavily relies on data, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. When appropriate, we applied a hydrological routing function to our indicators in order to simulate downstream accumulation of potentially harmful material. Each indicator was then assigned a DPSIR category. We collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the WWR. A thorough sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to understand the relationship between the final risk values and the spatial pattern of each category used during the indexation. For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, to get a sense of regional DPSIR specificities. This rather simple method does not necessitate the use of complex physical models and provides a scalable and efficient tool

  9. Complex EUV imaging reflectometry: spatially resolved 3D composition determination and dopant profiling with a tabletop 13nm source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Christina L.; Tanksalvala, Michael; Gerrity, Michael; Miley, Galen P.; Esashi, Yuka; Horiguchi, Naoto; Zhang, Xiaoshi; Bevis, Charles S.; Karl, Robert; Johnsen, Peter; Adams, Daniel E.; Kapteyn, Henry C.; Murnane, Margaret M.

    2018-03-01

    With increasingly 3D devices becoming the norm, there is a growing need in the semiconductor industry and in materials science for high spatial resolution, non-destructive metrology techniques capable of determining depth-dependent composition information on devices. We present a solution to this problem using ptychographic coherent diffractive imaging (CDI) implemented using a commercially available, tabletop 13 nm source. We present the design, simulations, and preliminary results from our new complex EUV imaging reflectometer, which uses coherent 13 nm light produced by tabletop high harmonic generation. This tool is capable of determining spatially-resolved composition vs. depth profiles for samples by recording ptychographic images at multiple incidence angles. By harnessing phase measurements, we can locally and nondestructively determine quantities such as device and thin film layer thicknesses, surface roughness, interface quality, and dopant concentration profiles. Using this advanced imaging reflectometer, we can quantitatively characterize materials-sciencerelevant and industry-relevant nanostructures for a wide variety of applications, spanning from defect and overlay metrology to the development and optimization of nano-enhanced thermoelectric or spintronic devices.

  10. Te and ne profiles on JFT-2M plasma with the highest spatial resolution TV Thomson scattering system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamauchi, T.

    1993-01-01

    A high spatial resolution TV Thomson scattering system was constructed on JFT-2M tokamak. This system is similar to those used at PBX-M and TFTR. These systems are providing complete profiles of Te and ne at a single time during a plasma discharge. The characteristics of JFT-2M TVTS are as follows: 1. Measured points are composed of not only 81 points for the scattered light and plasma light, whose time difference is 2 ms, but also 10 points for plasma light measured at the same time with scattered light. 2. Spatial resolution is 0.86 cm, which is higher than any other Thomson scattering system. 3. Sensitivity of detector composed of image intensifier tubes and CCD is as high as that of photomultiplier tube. Te and ne profiles have been measured over one year on JFT-2M. The line-averaged electron density measured was in the region of 5x10 12 cm -3 - 7x10 13 cm -3 and the measured electron temperature was in the region of 50 eV -1.2 keV. (author) 7 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab

  11. A ubiquitous method for street scale spatial data collection and analysis in challenging urban environments: mapping health risks using spatial video in Haiti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Andrew; Blackburn, Jason K; Widmer, Jocelyn M; Morris, J Glenn

    2013-04-15

    Fine-scale and longitudinal geospatial analysis of health risks in challenging urban areas is often limited by the lack of other spatial layers even if case data are available. Underlying population counts, residential context, and associated causative factors such as standing water or trash locations are often missing unless collected through logistically difficult, and often expensive, surveys. The lack of spatial context also hinders the interpretation of results and designing intervention strategies structured around analytical insights. This paper offers a ubiquitous spatial data collection approach using a spatial video that can be used to improve analysis and involve participatory collaborations. A case study will be used to illustrate this approach with three health risks mapped at the street scale for a coastal community in Haiti. Spatial video was used to collect street and building scale information, including standing water, trash accumulation, presence of dogs, cohort specific population characteristics, and other cultural phenomena. These data were digitized into Google Earth and then coded and analyzed in a GIS using kernel density and spatial filtering approaches. The concentrations of these risks around area schools which are sometimes sources of diarrheal disease infection because of the high concentration of children and variable sanitary practices will show the utility of the method. In addition schools offer potential locations for cholera education interventions. Previously unavailable fine scale health risk data vary in concentration across the town, with some schools being proximate to greater concentrations of the mapped risks. The spatial video is also used to validate coded data and location specific risks within these "hotspots". Spatial video is a tool that can be used in any environment to improve local area health analysis and intervention. The process is rapid and can be repeated in study sites through time to track spatio

  12. Tailoring in risk communication by linking risk profiles and communication preferences: The case of speeding of young car drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geber, Sarah; Baumann, Eva; Klimmt, Christoph

    2016-12-01

    Speeding is one of the most relevant risk behaviors for serious and fatal accidents, particularly among young drivers. This study presents a tailoring strategy for anti-speeding communication. By referring to their motivational dispositions toward speeding derived from motivational models of health behavior, young car drivers were segmented into different risk groups. In order to ensure that risk communication efforts would actually be capable to target these groups, the linkage between the risk profiles and communication preferences were explored. The study was conducted on the basis of survey data of 1168 German car drivers aged between 17 and 24 years. The data reveal four types of risk drivers significantly differing in their motivational profiles. Moreover, the findings show significant differences in communication habits and media use between these risk groups. By linking the risk profiles and communication preferences, implications for tailoring strategies of road safety communication campaigns are derived. Promising segmentation and targeting strategies are discussed also beyond the current case of anti-speeding campaigns. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Pneumococcal vaccine targeting strategy for older adults: customized risk profiling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balicer, Ran D; Cohen, Chandra J; Leibowitz, Morton; Feldman, Becca S; Brufman, Ilan; Roberts, Craig; Hoshen, Moshe

    2014-02-12

    Current pneumococcal vaccine campaigns take a broad, primarily age-based approach to immunization targeting, overlooking many clinical and administrative considerations necessary in disease prevention and resource planning for specific patient populations. We aim to demonstrate the utility of a population-specific predictive model for hospital-treated pneumonia to direct effective vaccine targeting. Data was extracted for 1,053,435 members of an Israeli HMO, age 50 and older, during the study period 2008-2010. We developed and validated a logistic regression model to predict hospital-treated pneumonia using training and test samples, including a set of standard and population-specific risk factors. The model's predictive value was tested for prospectively identifying cases of pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), and was compared to the existing international paradigm for patient immunization targeting. In a multivariate regression, age, co-morbidity burden and previous pneumonia events were most strongly positively associated with hospital-treated pneumonia. The model predicting hospital-treated pneumonia yielded a c-statistic of 0.80. Utilizing the predictive model, the top 17% highest-risk within the study validation population were targeted to detect 54% of those members who were subsequently treated for hospitalized pneumonia in the follow up period. The high-risk population identified through this model included 46% of the follow-up year's IPD cases, and 27% of community-treated pneumonia cases. These outcomes were compared with international guidelines for risk for pneumococcal diseases that accurately identified only 35% of hospitalized pneumonia, 41% of IPD cases and 21% of community-treated pneumonia. We demonstrate that a customized model for vaccine targeting performs better than international guidelines, and therefore, risk modeling may allow for more precise vaccine targeting and resource allocation than current national and international

  14. Risk Profiles for Falls among Older Adults: New Directions for Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William A. Satariano

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo address whether neighborhood factors, together with older adults’ levels of health and functioning, suggest new combinations of risk factors for falls and new directions for prevention. To explore the utility of Grade-of-Membership (GoM analysis to conduct this descriptive analysis.MethodThis is a cross-sectional, descriptive study of 884 people aged ≥65 years from Alameda County, CA, Cook County, IL, Allegheny County, PA, and Wake and Durham counties, NC. Interviews focused on neighborhood characteristics, physical and cognitive function, walking, and falls and injuries. Four risk profiles (higher order interactions of individual and neighborhood factors were derived from GoM analysis.ResultsProfiles 1 and 2 reflect previous results showing that frail older adults are likely to fall indoors (Profile 1; healthy older adults are likely to fall outdoors (Profile 2. Profile 3 identifies the falls risk for older with mild cognitive impairment living in moderately walkable neighborhoods. Profile 4 identifies the risk found for healthy older adults living in neighborhoods with low walkability.DiscussionNeighborhood walkability, in combination with levels of health and functioning, is associated with both indoor and outdoor falls. Descriptive results suggest possible research hypotheses and new directions for prevention, based on individual and neighborhood factors.

  15. A Risk Assessment Example for Soil Invertebrates Using Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reed, Melissa; Alvarez, Tania; Chelinho, Sonia

    2016-01-01

    Current risk assessment methods for measuring the toxicity of plant protection products (PPPs) on soil invertebrates use standardized laboratory conditions to determine acute effects on mortality and sublethal effects on reproduction. If an unacceptable risk is identified at the lower tier...... population models for ubiquitous soil invertebrates (collembolans and earthworms) as refinement options in current risk assessment. Both are spatially explicit agent-based models (ABMs), incorporating individual and landscape variability. The models were used to provide refined risk assessments for different...... application scenarios of a hypothetical pesticide applied to potato crops (full-field spray onto the soil surface [termed “overall”], in-furrow, and soil-incorporated pesticide applications). In the refined risk assessment, the population models suggest that soil invertebrate populations would likely recover...

  16. Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulkareem, Shaheen A; Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Mustafa, Yaseen T; Filatova, Tatiana

    2018-03-20

    Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed. We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior). We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of

  17. 78 FR 76628 - Draft Risk Profile on Pathogens and Filth in Spices: Availability; Extension of Comment Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-18

    ...] Draft Risk Profile on Pathogens and Filth in Spices: Availability; Extension of Comment Period AGENCY... Profile on Pathogens and Filth in Spices: Availability'' that appeared in the Federal Register of November... Risk Profile on Pathogens and Filth in Spices: Availability.'' The notice provided a 60-day comment...

  18. [Cardiac risk profile in diabetes mellitus and impaired fasting glucose].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaan, Beatriz D'Agord; Harzheim, Erno; Gus, Iseu

    2004-08-01

    Mortality of diabetic patients is higher than that of the population at large, and mainly results from cardiovascular diseases. The purpose of the present study was to identify the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in subjects with diabetes mellitus (DM) or abnormal fasting glucose (FG) in order to guide health actions. A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out in a representative random cluster sampling of 1,066 adult urban population (> or =20 years) in the state of Rio Grande do Sul between 1999 and 2000. A structured questionnaire on coronary risk factors was applied and sociodemographic characteristics of all adults older than 20 years living in the same dwelling were collected. Subjects were clinically evaluated and blood samples were obtained for measuring total cholesterol and fasting glycemia. Statistical analysis was performed using Stata 7 and a 5% significance level was set. Categorical variables were compared by Pearson's chi-square and continuous variables were compared using Student's t-test or Anova and multivariate analysis, all controlled for the cluster effect. Of 992 subjects, 12.4% were diabetic and 7.4% had impaired fasting glucose. Among the risk factors evaluated, subjects who presented any kind of glucose homeostasis abnormality were at a higher prevalence of obesity (17.8, 29.2 and 35.3% in healthy subjects, impaired fasting glucose and DM respectively, pfasting glucose and DM, respectively, pfasting glucose and DM respectively, p=0.01). Subjects with any kind of glucose homeostasis abnormality represent a group, which preventive individual and population health policies should target since they have higher prevalence of coronary artery disease risk factors.

  19. Spatial risk modelling for water shortage and nitrate pollution in the lower Jordan valley

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loibl, W.; Orthofer, R.

    2002-02-01

    This report summarizes the results of the spatial risk modeling activities (work package WP-4.4, 'GIS Risk Modeling') of the INCO-DC project 'Developing Sustainable Water Management in the Jordan Valley'. The project was funded by European Commission's INCO-DC research program. The main objective of the project was to develop the scientific basis for an integral management plan of water resources and their use in the Lower Jordan Valley. The outputs of the project were expected to allow a better understanding of the water management situation, and to provide a sound basis for a better future water management - not only separately in the three countries, but in the overall valley region. The risk modeling was done by the ARCS Seibersdorf research (ARCS), based on information and data provided by the regional partners from Israel (Hebrew University, Jerusalem, HUJ), Palestine (Applied Research Institute, Jerusalem, Bethlehem, ARIJ) and Jordan (EnviroConsult Office, Amman, ECO). The land use classification has been established through a cooperation between ARCS and the Yale University Center for Earth Observation (YUCEO). As a result of the work, the spatial patterns of agricultural and domestic water demand in the Lower Jordan Valley were established, and the spatial dimension of driving forces for water usage and water supply was analyzed. Furthermore, a conceptual model for nitrate leakage (established by HUJ) was translated into a GIS system, and the risks for nitrate pollution of groundwater were quantified. (author)

  20. Spatial variation of pneumonia hospitalization risk in Twin Cities metro area, Minnesota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iroh Tam, P Y; Krzyzanowski, B; Oakes, J M; Kne, L; Manson, S

    2017-11-01

    Fine resolution spatial variability in pneumonia hospitalization may identify correlates with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors. We performed a retrospective study within the Fairview Health System network of Minnesota. Patients 2 months of age and older hospitalized with pneumonia between 2011 and 2015 were geocoded to their census block group, and pneumonia hospitalization risk was analyzed in relation to socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors. Spatial analyses were performed using Esri's ArcGIS software, and multivariate Poisson regression was used. Hospital encounters of 17 840 patients were included in the analysis. Multivariate Poisson regression identified several significant associations, including a 40% increased risk of pneumonia hospitalization among census block groups with large, compared with small, populations of ⩾65 years, a 56% increased risk among census block groups in the bottom (first) quartile of median household income compared to the top (fourth) quartile, a 44% higher risk in the fourth quartile of average nitrogen dioxide emissions compared with the first quartile, and a 47% higher risk in the fourth quartile of average annual solar insolation compared to the first quartile. After adjusting for income, moving from the first to the second quartile of the race/ethnic diversity index resulted in a 21% significantly increased risk of pneumonia hospitalization. In conclusion, the risk of pneumonia hospitalization at the census-block level is associated with age, income, race/ethnic diversity index, air quality, and solar insolation, and varies by region-specific factors. Identifying correlates using fine spatial analysis provides opportunities for targeted prevention and control.

  1. Quantifying the benefits of achieving or maintaining long-term low risk profile for cardiovascular disease: The Doetinchem Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulsegge, Gerben; Smit, Henriëtte A; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Daviglus, Martha L; Verschuren, W M Monique

    2015-10-01

    Studies investigating the relation between risk profiles and cardiovascular disease have measured risk at baseline only. We investigated maintenance and changes of risk profiles over time and their potential impact on incident cardiovascular disease. Population-based cohort study. Risk factors were measured at baseline (1987-1991) among 5574 cardiovascular disease-free adults aged 20-59 years. They were classified into four risk categories according to smoking status, presence of diabetes and widely accepted cut-off values for blood pressure, total cholesterol/HDL-ratio and body mass index. Categories were subdivided (maintenance, deterioration, improvement) based on risk factor levels at six and 11 years of follow-up. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for cardiovascular disease incidence 5-10 years following the risk-change period were fitted using Cox proportional hazards models. Only 12% of participants were low risk at baseline, and only 7% maintained it. Participants who maintained a low risk profile over 11 years had seven times lower risk of cardiovascular disease (HR: 0.14, 95% CI: 0.05-0.41) than participants with long-term high risk profile, whereas those low risk at baseline whose profile deteriorated had three times lower risk (HR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.18-0.71). Our results suggest that, within each baseline risk profile group, compared with a stable profile, improving profiles may be associated with up to two-fold lower HRs, and deteriorating profiles with about two-fold higher HRs. Our study, using long-term risk profiles, demonstrates the full benefits of low risk profile. These findings underscore the importance of achieving and maintaining low risk from young adulthood onwards. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  2. Prevalence, risk factors and spatial analysis of liver fluke infections in Danish cattle herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Abbey; Frankena, Klaas; Bødker, Rene

    2015-01-01

    Background: Fasciola hepatica, a trematode parasite (liver fluke), infects a wide range of host species causing fasciolosis. The disease is prevalent world-wide and causes considerable economic losses to the livestock industry. Fasciolosis is regarded as an emerging food-borne zoonosis. To promote...... awareness among farmers and to implement strategies to control the infection, this study examined the prevalence, spatial distribution and risk factors for Fasciola hepatica infection in Danish cattle herds. Methods: A retrospective population based study was performed using meat inspection data...... of approximately 1.5 million cattle slaughtered in the period 2011 to 2013. Annual cumulative prevalence of recorded liver fluke findings was calculated for each year. Global and local spatial cluster analysis was used to identify and map spatial patterns of Fasciola hepatica positive and negative herds to explore...

  3. Perceptions of risk in adults with a low or high risk profile of developing type 2 diabetes; a cross sectional population-bases study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adriaanse, M.C.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Dekker, J.M.; Spijkerman, A.M.W.; Nijpels, G.; Heine, R.J.; Snoek, F.J.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To compare the perceived seriousness and risk of type 2 diabetes among low risk with high risk profile non-diabetic subjects and examine the relationship of perceived risk with multiple self-reported risk indicators. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study among 4435 low risk

  4. Body composition indices and predicted cardiovascular disease risk profile among urban dwellers in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Tin Tin; Amiri, Mohammadreza; Mohd Hairi, Farizah; Thangiah, Nithiah; Dahlui, Maznah; Majid, Hazreen Abdul

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to compare various body composition indices and their association with a predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile in an urban population in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in 2012. Households were selected using a simple random-sampling method, and adult members were invited for medical screening. The Framingham Risk Scoring algorithm was used to predict CVD risk, which was then analyzed in association with body composition measurements, including waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, waist-height ratio, body fat percentage, and body mass index. Altogether, 882 individuals were included in our analyses. Indices that included waist-related measurements had the strongest association with CVD risk in both genders. After adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic variables, waist-related measurements retained the strongest correlations with predicted CVD risk in males. However, body mass index, waist-height ratio, and waist circumference had the strongest correlation with CVD risk in females. The waist-related indicators of abdominal obesity are important components of CVD risk profiles. As waist-related parameters can quickly and easily be measured, they should be routinely obtained in primary care settings and population health screens in order to assess future CVD risk profiles and design appropriate interventions.

  5. Body Composition Indices and Predicted Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile among Urban Dwellers in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tin Tin Su

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. This study aims to compare various body composition indices and their association with a predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD risk profile in an urban population in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Methods. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in 2012. Households were selected using a simple random-sampling method, and adult members were invited for medical screening. The Framingham Risk Scoring algorithm was used to predict CVD risk, which was then analyzed in association with body composition measurements, including waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, waist-height ratio, body fat percentage, and body mass index. Results. Altogether, 882 individuals were included in our analyses. Indices that included waist-related measurements had the strongest association with CVD risk in both genders. After adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic variables, waist-related measurements retained the strongest correlations with predicted CVD risk in males. However, body mass index, waist-height ratio, and waist circumference had the strongest correlation with CVD risk in females. Conclusions. The waist-related indicators of abdominal obesity are important components of CVD risk profiles. As waist-related parameters can quickly and easily be measured, they should be routinely obtained in primary care settings and population health screens in order to assess future CVD risk profiles and design appropriate interventions.

  6. Spatial proximity and the risk of psychopathology after a terrorist attack

    OpenAIRE

    DiMaggio, Charles; Galea, Sandro; Emch, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Previous studies concerned with the relation of proximity to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and subsequent psychopathology have produced conflicting results. The goals of this analysis are to assess the appropriateness of using Bayesian hierarchical spatial techniques to answer the question of the role of proximity to a mass trauma as a risk factor for psychopathology. Using a set of individual-level Medicaid data for New York State, and controlling for age, gender, median household...

  7. Time and spatial concentration profile inside a membrane by means of a memory formalism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caputo, Michele; Cametti, Cesare; Ruggero, Vittorio

    2008-03-01

    In this note, the profile concentration of diffusing particles inside a membrane has been calculated on the basis of the Fick diffusion equation modified by introducing a memory formalism. In highly heterogeneous systems, such as biological membranes, the intrinsic structural complexity of the medium restricts the applicability of continuum diffusion models and suggests that diffusion parameters could depend at a certain time or position on what happens at preceding times (diffusion with memory). Here, we deal with two particular cases, the diffusion of glucose across an erythrocyte membrane, when the concentration at both sides of the membrane are assigned, and the permeation transport of small molecular weight solute through an artificial hydrogel polymeric membrane. However, the present procedure can be easily extended to more general conditions. The knowledge of the concentration profile within a membranous structure, which is usually not easily experimentally accessible, completes the description of the rather complex phenomenon of the transport across a highly structured confined medium and can also lead to an improvement in controlled drug-delivery systems.

  8. Spatial Distribution, Sources Apportionment and Health Risk of Metals in Topsoil in Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunyuan Sun

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to acquire the pollution feature and regularities of distribution of metals in the topsoil within the sixth ring road in Beijing, a total of 46 soil samples were collected, and the concentrations of twelve elements (Nickel, Ni, Lithium, Li, Vanadium, V, Cobalt, Co, Barium, Ba, Strontium, Sr, Chrome, Cr, Molybdenum, Mo, Copper, Cu, Cadmium, Cd, Zinc, Zn, Lead, Pb were analyzed. Geostatistics and multivariate statistics were conducted to identify spatial distribution characteristics and sources. In addition, the health risk of the analyzed heavy metals to humans (adult was evaluated by an U.S. Environmental Protection Agency health risk assessment model. The results indicate that these metals have notable variation in spatial scale. The concentration of Cr was high in the west and low in the east, while that of Mo was high in the north and low in the south. High concentrations of Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb were found in the central part of the city. The average enrichment degree of Cd is 5.94, reaching the standard of significant enrichment. The accumulation of Cr, Mo, Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb is influenced by anthropogenic activity, including vehicle exhaustion, coal burning, and industrial processes. Health risk assessment shows that both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks of selected heavy metals are within the safety standard and the rank of the carcinogenic risk of the four heavy metals is Cr > Co > Ni > Cd.

  9. Spatial Distribution, Sources Apportionment and Health Risk of Metals in Topsoil in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Chunyuan; Zhao, Wenji; Zhang, Qianzhong; Yu, Xue; Zheng, Xiaoxia; Zhao, Jiayin; Lv, Ming

    2016-07-20

    In order to acquire the pollution feature and regularities of distribution of metals in the topsoil within the sixth ring road in Beijing, a total of 46 soil samples were collected, and the concentrations of twelve elements (Nickel, Ni, Lithium, Li, Vanadium, V, Cobalt, Co, Barium, Ba, Strontium, Sr, Chrome, Cr, Molybdenum, Mo, Copper, Cu, Cadmium, Cd, Zinc, Zn, Lead, Pb) were analyzed. Geostatistics and multivariate statistics were conducted to identify spatial distribution characteristics and sources. In addition, the health risk of the analyzed heavy metals to humans (adult) was evaluated by an U.S. Environmental Protection Agency health risk assessment model. The results indicate that these metals have notable variation in spatial scale. The concentration of Cr was high in the west and low in the east, while that of Mo was high in the north and low in the south. High concentrations of Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb were found in the central part of the city. The average enrichment degree of Cd is 5.94, reaching the standard of significant enrichment. The accumulation of Cr, Mo, Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb is influenced by anthropogenic activity, including vehicle exhaustion, coal burning, and industrial processes. Health risk assessment shows that both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks of selected heavy metals are within the safety standard and the rank of the carcinogenic risk of the four heavy metals is Cr > Co > Ni > Cd.

  10. A spatially explicit risk assessment approach: Cetaceans and marine traffic in the Pelagos Sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Grazia Pennino

    Full Text Available Spatially explicit risk assessment is an essential component of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP, which provides a comprehensive framework for managing multiple uses of the marine environment, minimizing environmental impacts and conflicts among users. In this study, we assessed the risk of the exposure to high intensity vessel traffic areas for the three most abundant cetacean species (Stenella coeruleoalba, Tursiops truncatus and Balaenoptera physalus in the southern area of the Pelagos Sanctuary, which is the only pelagic Marine Protected Area (MPA for marine mammals in the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, we modeled the occurrence of the three cetacean species as a function of habitat variables in June by using hierarchical Bayesian spatial-temporal models. Similarly, we modelled the marine traffic intensity in order to find high risk areas and estimated the potential conflict due to the overlap with the cetacean home ranges. Results identified two main hot-spots of high intensity marine traffic in the area, which partially overlap with the area of presence of the studied species. Our findings emphasize the need for nationally relevant and transboundary planning and management measures for these marine species.

  11. Profiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Profiles is a synthetic overview of more than 100 national energy markets in the world, providing insightful facts and key energy statistics. A Profile is structured around 6 main items and completed by key statistics: Ministries, public agencies, energy policy are concerned; main companies in the oil, gas, electricity and coal sectors, status, shareholders; reserve, production, imports and exports, electricity and refining capacities; deregulation of prices, subsidies, taxes; consumption trends by sector, energy market shares; main energy projects, production and consumption prospects. Statistical Profiles are present in about 3 pages the main data and indicators on oil, gas, coal and electricity. (A.L.B.)

  12. Suicide Mortality Risk in Kermanshah Province, Iran: A County-level Spatial Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehran Rostami

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Kermanshah province has one of the highest suicide rates in Iran. The aim of this study is to explore spatial variations in the relative risk of suicide across the counties of Kermanshah province. Methods: This is an applied ecological study in which county-level counts of suicide deaths recorded by the forensic medicine organization of Kermanshah province during the period March 21, 2006 to March 20, 2013 have been used. Following a Bayesian approach, Besag, York and Mollie's (BYM model was fitted to the number of suicide deaths of males, females and all persons to make inference about the relative risk of suicide across the counties of the province. Results: Over the study period and based on 95% credible intervals, Kangavar, Harsin and Sonqor counties had significantly lower relative risks of suicide for both males and females, Slas-Babajani, Paveh, Javanrud and Ravansar counties had significantly lower relative risks of suicide only for males and Kermanshah county had a significantly higher relative risk of suicide only for males. The relative risk of suicide for the other counties were not significantly different from the province’s overall risk neither for males nor females. Conclusion: The counties of Kermanshah province can be classified into four categories by the level of relative risk of suicide: low relative risk for both males and females, low relative risk only for males, high relative risk only for males and average relative risk. Findings from this study could be used to specify priority counties for suicide prevention initiatives.

  13. Spatial Distribution and Fuzzy Health Risk Assessment of Trace Elements in Surface Water from Honghu Lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fei; Qiu, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Jingdong; Liu, Chaoyang; Cai, Ying; Xiao, Minsi

    2017-09-04

    Previous studies revealed that Honghu Lake was polluted by trace elements due to anthropogenic activities. This study investigated the spatial distribution of trace elements in Honghu Lake, and identified the major pollutants and control areas based on the fuzzy health risk assessment at screening level. The mean total content of trace elements in surface water decreased in the order of Zn (18.04 μg/L) > Pb (3.42 μg/L) > Cu (3.09 μg/L) > Cr (1.63 μg/L) > As (0.99 μg/L) > Cd (0.14 μg/L), within limits of Drinking Water Guidelines. The results of fuzzy health risk assessment indicated that there was no obvious non-carcinogenic risk to human health, while carcinogenic risk was observed in descending order of As > Cr > Cd > Pb. As was regarded to have the highest carcinogenic risk among selected trace elements because it generally accounted for 64% of integrated carcinogenic risk. Potential carcinogenic risk of trace elements in each sampling site was approximately at medium risk level (10 -5 to 10 -4 ). The areas in the south (S4, S13, and S16) and northeast (S8, S18, and S19) of Honghu Lake were regarded as the risk priority control areas. However, the corresponding maximum memberships of integrated carcinogenic risk in S1, S3, S10-S13, S15, and S18 were of relatively low credibility (50-60%), and may mislead the decision-makers in identifying the risk priority areas. Results of fuzzy assessment presented the subordinate grade and corresponding reliability of risk, and provided more full-scale results for decision-makers, which made up for the deficiency of certainty assessment to a certain extent.

  14. Cost analysis and financial risk profile for severe reactor accidents at Waterford-3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cutbush, J.D.; Abbott, E.C.; Carpenter, W.L. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    To support Louisiana Power and Light Company (LP and L) in determining an appropriate level of nuclear property insurance for Waterford Steam Electric Station, Unit 3 (Waterford-3), ABZ, Incorporated, performed a series of cost analyses and developed a financial risk profile. This five-month study, conducted in 1991, identified the potential Waterford-3 severe reactor accidents and described each from a cleanup perspective, estimated the cost and schedule to cleanup from each accident, developed a probability distribution of associated financial exposure, and developed a profile of financial risk as a function of insurance coverage

  15. Geographic variations in cervical cancer risk in San Luis Potosí state, Mexico: A spatial statistical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terán-Hernández, Mónica; Ramis-Prieto, Rebeca; Calderón-Hernández, Jaqueline; Garrocho-Rangel, Carlos Félix; Campos-Alanís, Juan; Ávalos-Lozano, José Antonio; Aguilar-Robledo, Miguel

    2016-09-29

    Worldwide, Cervical Cancer (CC) is the fourth most common type of cancer and cause of death in women. It is a significant public health problem, especially in low and middle-income/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) countries. In the past decade, several studies of CC have been published, that identify the main modifiable and non-modifiable CC risk factors for Mexican women. However, there are no studies that attempt to explain the residual spatial variation in CC incidence In Mexico, i.e. spatial variation that cannot be ascribed to known, spatially varying risk factors. This paper uses a spatial statistical methodology that takes into account spatial variation in socio-economic factors and accessibility to health services, whilst allowing for residual, unexplained spatial variation in risk. To describe residual spatial variations in CC risk, we used generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) with both spatially structured and unstructured random effects, using a Bayesian approach to inference. The highest risk is concentrated in the southeast, where the Matlapa and Aquismón municipalities register excessive risk, with posterior probabilities greater than 0.8. The lack of coverage of Cervical Cancer-Screening Programme (CCSP) (RR 1.17, 95 % CI 1.12-1.22), Marginalisation Index (RR 1.05, 95 % CI 1.03-1.08), and lack of accessibility to health services (RR 1.01, 95 % CI 1.00-1.03) were significant covariates. There are substantial differences between municipalities, with high-risk areas mainly in low-resource areas lacking accessibility to health services for CC. Our results clearly indicate the presence of spatial patterns, and the relevance of the spatial analysis for public health intervention. Ignoring the spatial variability means to continue a public policy that does not tackle deficiencies in its national CCSP and to keep disadvantaging and disempowering Mexican women in regard to their health care.

  16. Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orozco-Beltran, Domingo; Gil-Guillen, Vicente F; Redon, Josep; Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Pallares-Carratala, Vicente; Navarro-Perez, Jorge; Valls-Roca, Francisco; Sanchis-Domenech, Carlos; Fernandez-Gimenez, Antonio; Perez-Navarro, Ana; Bertomeu-Martinez, Vicente; Bertomeu-Gonzalez, Vicente; Cordero, Alberto; Pascual de la Torre, Manuel; Trillo, Jose L; Carratala-Munuera, Concepcion; Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Uso, Ruth; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Cooper, Richard; Sanz, Gines; Castellano, Jose M; Ascaso, Juan F; Carmena, Rafael; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

    2017-01-01

    The potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population. This prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008-2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles. 51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92. In a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers.

  17. Risk management profile of etoricoxib: an example of personalized medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Patrignani

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Paola Patrignani, Stefania Tacconelli, Marta L CaponeDepartment of Medicine and Center of Excellence on Aging, “G. D’Annunzio” University School of Medicine, and “Gabriele D’Annunzio” University Foundation, CeSI, Chieti, ItalyAbstract: The development of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs selective for cyclooxygenase (COX-2 (named coxibs has been driven by the aim of reducing the incidence of serious gastrointestinal (GI adverse events associated with the administration of traditional (t NSAIDs – mainly dependent on the inhibition of COX-1 in GI tract and platelets. However, their use has unravelled the important protective role of COX-2 for the cardiovascular (CV system, mainly through the generation of prostacyclin. In a recent nested-case control study, we found that patients taking NSAIDs (both coxibs and tNSAIDs had a 35% increase risk of myocardial infarction. The increased incidence of thrombotic events associated with profound inhibition of COX-2-dependent prostacyclin by coxibs and tNSAIDs can be mitigated, even if not obliterated, by a complete suppression of platelet COX-1 activity. However, most tNSAIDs and coxibs are functional COX-2 selective for the platelet (ie, they cause a profound suppression of COX-2 associated with insufficient inhibition of platelet COX-1 to translate into inhibition of platelet function, which explains their shared CV toxicity. The development of genetic and biochemical markers will help to identify the responders to NSAIDs or who are uniquely susceptible at developing thrombotic or GI events by COX inhibition. We will describe possible strategies to reduce the side effects of etoricoxib by using biochemical markers of COX inhibition, such as whole blood COX-2 and the assessment of prostacyclin biosynthesis in vivo.Keywords: etoricoxib, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs, COX-2, gastrointestinal toxicity, cardiovascular toxicity, prostacyclin

  18. Risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model at different spatial-temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Xu, Jinchao; Guo, Qizhong; Hang, Qingfeng; Chen, Yaqian

    2018-05-01

    Aiming at reducing losses from flood disaster, risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model is studied. The model is built upon risk indices in flood disaster system, proceeding from the whole structure and its parts at different spatial-temporal scales. In this study, on the one hand, it mainly establishes the long-term forewarning model for the surface area with three levels of prediction, evaluation, and forewarning. The method of structure-adaptive back-propagation neural network on peak identification is used to simulate indices in prediction sub-model. Set pair analysis is employed to calculate the connection degrees of a single index, comprehensive index, and systematic risk through the multivariate connection number, and the comprehensive assessment is made by assessment matrixes in evaluation sub-model. The comparison judging method is adopted to divide warning degree of flood disaster on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards in forewarning sub-model and then the long-term local conditions for proposing planning schemes. On the other hand, it mainly sets up the real-time forewarning model for the spot, which introduces the real-time correction technique of Kalman filter based on hydrological model with forewarning index, and then the real-time local conditions for presenting an emergency plan. This study takes Tunxi area, Huangshan City of China, as an example. After risk assessment and forewarning model establishment and application for flood disaster at different spatial-temporal scales between the actual and simulated data from 1989 to 2008, forewarning results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk remains a decline on the whole from 2009 to 2013, despite the rise in 2011. At the macroscopic level, project and non-project measures are advanced, while at the microcosmic level, the time, place, and method are listed. It suggests that the proposed model is feasible with theory and application, thus

  19. Hypoadiponectinemia in overweight children contributes to a negative metabolic risk profile 6 years later

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kynde, Iben; Heitmann, Berit L; Bygbjerg, Ib C

    2009-01-01

    follow-up data 6 years later (n = 169). Cardiometabolic risk profile was calculated using a continuous composite score derived from summing of 6 factors standardized to the sample means (Z scores): body mass index, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, total serum cholesterol to serum high...... adiponectin at baseline was inversely associated with metabolic risk score 6 years later (P = .04). In childhood, both hypoadiponectinemia and hyperleptinemia accompany a negative metabolic risk profile. In addition, circulating plasma adiponectin may be a useful biomarker to identify overweight children......Prognostic biomarkers are needed to identify children at increased cardiometabolic risk. The objective was to study whether markers of metabolism and inflammation, for example, circulating plasma adiponectin, leptin, interleukin-8, and hepatocyte growth factor, are associated with cardiometabolic...

  20. Spatial distribution and risk assessment of heavy metals and As pollution in the sediments of a shallow lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Jiancai; Wang, Yuansheng; Liu, Xin; Hu, Weiping; Zhu, Jinge; Zhu, Lin

    2016-05-01

    The concentrations and spatial distributions of eight heavy metals in surface sediments and sediment core samples from a shallow lake in China were investigated to evaluate the extent of the contamination and potential ecological risks. The results showed that the heavy metal concentrations were higher in the northern and southwestern lake zones than those in the other lake zones, with lower levels of As, Hg, Zn, Cu, Pb, Cr, and Ni primarily observed in the central and eastern lake regions and Cd primarily confined to areas surrounding the lake. The concentrations of the eight heavy metals in the sediment profiles tended to decrease with increasing sediment depth. The contents of Ni, Cu, Zn, Pb, and Cd in the surface sediment were approximately 1.23-18.41-fold higher than their background values (BVs), whereas the contents of Cr, As, and Hg were nearly identical to their BVs. The calculated pollution load index (PLI) suggested that the surface sediments of this lake were heavily polluted by these heavy metals and indicated that Cd was a predominant contamination factor. The comprehensive potential ecological risk index (PERI) in the surface sediments ranged from 99.2 to 2882.1, with an average of 606.1. Cd contributed 78.7 % to the PERI, and Hg contributed 8.4 %. Multivariate statistical analyses revealed that the surface sediment pollution with heavy metals mainly originated from industrial wastewater discharged by rivers located in the western and northwestern portion of the lake.

  1. Spatial and temporal distribution of risks associated with low-level radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1988-01-01

    The major purposes of this dissertation are to examine the economic tradeoffs which arise in the process of LLW disposal and to derive a framework within which the impact of these tradeoffs on LLW disposal policy can be analyzed. There are two distinct stages in the disposal of LLW - the transportation of the waste from sources to disposal sites and the disposal of the waste. The levels of costs and risks associated with these two stages depend on the number and location of disposal sites. Having more disposal sites results in lower transportation costs and risks but also in greater disposal costs and risks. The tradeoff between transportation costs and risks can also be viewed as a tradeoff between present and future risks. Therefore, an alteration in the spatial distribution of LLW disposal sites necessarily implies a change in the temporal distribution of risks. These tradeoffs are examined in this work through the use of a transportation model to which probabilistic radiation exposure constraints are added. Future (disposal) risks are discounted. The number and capacities of LLW disposal sites are varied in order to derive a series of system costs and corresponding expected cancers. This provides policy makers with a cost vs. cancers possibility function

  2. Risk Factor Profile in Parkinson's Disease Subtype with REM Sleep Behavior Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Marie L; Dauvilliers, Yves; St Louis, Erik K; McCarter, Stuart J; Romenets, Silvia Rios; Pelletier, Amélie; Cherif, Mahmoud; Gagnon, Jean-François; Postuma, Ronald B

    2016-01-01

    Numerous large-scale studies have found diverse risk factors for Parkinson's disease (PD), including caffeine non-use, non-smoking, head injury, pesticide exposure, and family history. These studies assessed risk factors for PD overall; however, PD is a heterogeneous condition. One of the strongest identifiers of prognosis and disease subtype is the co-occurrence of rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (RBD).In previous studies, idiopathic RBD was associated with a different risk factor profile from PD and dementia with Lewy bodies, suggesting that the PD-RBD subtype may also have a different risk factor profile. To define risk factors for PD in patients with or without associated RBD. In a questionnaire, we assessed risk factors for PD, including demographic, medical, environmental, and lifestyle variables of 189 PD patients with or without associated polysomnography-confirmed RBD. The risk profile of patients with vs. without RBD was assessed with logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, and disease duration. PD-RBD patients were more likely to have been a welder (OR = 3.11 (1.05-9.223), and to have been regular smokers (OR = 1.96 (1.04-3.68)). There were no differences in use of caffeine or alcohol, other occupations, pesticide exposure, rural living, or well water use. Patients with RBD had a higher prevalence of the combined family history of both dementia and parkinsonism (13.3% vs. 5.5% , OR = 3.28 (1.07-10.0). The RBD-specific subtype of PD may also have a different risk factor profile.

  3. Risk Factors Profile of Shoulder Dystocia in Oman: A Case Control Study

    OpenAIRE

    Maha M. Al-Khaduri; Rania Mohammed Abudraz; Sayed G. Rizvi; Yahya M. Al-Farsi

    2014-01-01

    Objective: This study aimed to assess the risk factor profile of shoulder dystocia and associated neonatal complications in Oman, a developing Arab country. Methods: A retrospective case-control study was conducted among 111 cases with dystocia and 111 controls, identified during 1994-2006 period in a tertiary care hospital in Oman. Controls were randomly selected among women who did not have dystocia, and were matched to cases on the day of delivery. Data related to potential risk factor...

  4. Social and Spatial Continuities and Differentiations among Portuguese Ciganos: Regional Profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mendes Maria Manuela

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The coexistence of people and societies marked by ethnic, social, cultural, religious and linguistic diversity is a subject that still generates controversies in contemporary societies. The “Ciganos’ situation” is an unavoidable issue that crosses the boundaries of different European countries, which leads to controversy and ambivalence in the so-called multicultural and/or intercultural societies characterised by the principle of universalism. In Portugal, despite the social and economic transformations that have occurred, the problems of exclusion and poverty among Ciganos persist. They are still considered the poorest ethnic group, with the worst housing conditions, lest schooling and the main target of racism and discrimination. The Portuguese Ciganos are not a homogeneous community. The diversity and plurality are not always easy to grasp by the glare generated by the adoption of interpretive perspectives that are reductively linear and deterministic of the Portuguese Ciganos. For the purpose of outlining a national picture of Portuguese Ciganos, a national study was developed that combines both qualitative and quantitative methodological approaches. The central goal of this article is to present the main results obtained through a questionnaire survey carried out to Ciganos persons and to discuss the social and spatial continuities and differentiations among Ciganos in Portugal.

  5. Retrospective analysis of Bluetongue farm risk profile definition, based on biology, farm management practices and climatic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappai, Stefano; Loi, Federica; Coccollone, Annamaria; Contu, Marino; Capece, Paolo; Fiori, Michele; Canu, Simona; Foxi, Cipriano; Rolesu, Sandro

    2018-07-01

    Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by species of Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Many studies have contributed to clarifying various aspects of its aetiology, epidemiology and vector dynamic; however, BT remains a disease of epidemiological and economic importance that affects ruminants worldwide. Since 2000, the Sardinia region has been the most affected area of the Mediterranean basin. The region is characterised by wide pastoral areas for sheep and represents the most likely candidate region for the study of Bluetongue virus (BTV) distribution and prevalence in Italy. Furthermore, specific information on the farm level and epidemiological studies needs to be provided to increase the knowledge on the disease's spread and to provide valid mitigation strategies in Sardinia. This study conducted a punctual investigation into the spatial patterns of BTV transmission to define a risk profile for all Sardinian farmsby using a logistic multilevel mixed model that take into account agro-meteorological aspects, as well as farm characteristics and management. Data about animal density (i.e. sheep, goats and cattle), vaccination, previous outbreaks, altitude, land use, rainfall, evapotranspiration, water surface, and farm management practices (i.e. use of repellents, treatment against insect vectors, storage of animals in shelter overnight, cleaning, presence of mud and manure) were collected for 12,277 farms for the years 2011-2015. The logistic multilevel mixed model showed the fundamental role of climatic factors in disease development and the protective role of good management, vaccination, outbreak in the previous year and altitude. Regional BTV risk maps were developed, based on the predictor values of logistic model results, and updated every 10 days. These maps were used to identify, 20 days in advance, the areas at highest risk. The risk farm profile, as defined by the model, would provide specific information about the role of each

  6. Urinary arsenic profile affects the risk of urothelial carcinoma even at low arsenic exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pu, Y.-S.; Yang, S.-M.; Huang, Y.-K.; Chung, C.-J.; Huang, Steven K.; Chiu, Allen Wen-Hsiang; Yang, M.-H.; Chen, C.-J.; Hsueh, Y.-M.

    2007-01-01

    Arsenic exposure is associated with an increased risk of urothelial carcinoma (UC). To explore the association between individual risk and urinary arsenic profile in subjects without evident exposure, 177 UC cases and 313 age-matched controls were recruited between September 2002 and May 2004 for a case-control study. Urinary arsenic species including the following three categories, inorganic arsenic (As III + As V ), monomethylarsonic acid (MMA V ) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA V ), were determined with high-performance liquid chromatography-linked hydride generator and atomic absorption spectrometry. Arsenic methylation profile was assessed by percentages of various arsenic species in the sum of the three categories measured. The primary methylation index (PMI) was defined as the ratio between MMA V and inorganic arsenic. Secondary methylation index (SMI) was determined as the ratio between DMA V and MMA V . Smoking is associated with a significant risk of UC in a dose-dependent manner. After multivariate adjustment, UC cases had a significantly higher sum of all the urinary species measured, higher percent MMA V , lower percent DMA V , higher PMI and lower SMI values compared with controls. Smoking interacts with the urinary arsenic profile in modifying the UC risk. Differential carcinogenic effects of the urinary arsenic profile, however, were seen more prominently in non-smokers than in smokers, suggesting that smoking is not the only major environmental source of arsenic contamination since the UC risk differs in non-smokers. Subjects who have an unfavorable urinary arsenic profile have an increased UC risk even at low exposure levels

  7. Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gaitan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall, socioeconomic characteristics, and social sensing, may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several spatial datasets have been recently made available in the Netherlands, including rainfall-related incident reports made by citizens, spatially distributed rain depths, semidistributed socioeconomic information, and buildings age. Inspecting the potential of this data to explain the occurrence of rainfall related incidents has not been done yet. Multivariate analysis tools for describing communities and environmental patterns have been previously developed and used in the field of study of ecology. The objective of this paper is to outline opportunities for these tools to explore urban flooding risks patterns in the mentioned datasets. To that end, a cluster analysis is performed. Results indicate that incidence of rainfall-related impacts is higher in areas characterized by older infrastructure and higher population density.

  8. Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaitan, S.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

    2015-06-01

    Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall, socioeconomic characteristics, and social sensing, may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several spatial datasets have been recently made available in the Netherlands, including rainfall-related incident reports made by citizens, spatially distributed rain depths, semidistributed socioeconomic information, and buildings age. Inspecting the potential of this data to explain the occurrence of rainfall related incidents has not been done yet. Multivariate analysis tools for describing communities and environmental patterns have been previously developed and used in the field of study of ecology. The objective of this paper is to outline opportunities for these tools to explore urban flooding risks patterns in the mentioned datasets. To that end, a cluster analysis is performed. Results indicate that incidence of rainfall-related impacts is higher in areas characterized by older infrastructure and higher population density.

  9. Sustainable mineral resources management: from regional mineral resources exploration to spatial contamination risk assessment of mining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Gyozo

    2009-07-01

    Wide-spread environmental contamination associated with historic mining in Europe has triggered social responses to improve related environmental legislation, the environmental assessment and management methods for the mining industry. Mining has some unique features such as natural background contamination associated with mineral deposits, industrial activities and contamination in the three-dimensional subsurface space, problem of long-term remediation after mine closure, problem of secondary contaminated areas around mine sites, land use conflicts and abandoned mines. These problems require special tools to address the complexity of the environmental problems of mining-related contamination. The objective of this paper is to show how regional mineral resources mapping has developed into the spatial contamination risk assessment of mining and how geological knowledge can be transferred to environmental assessment of mines. The paper provides a state-of-the-art review of the spatial mine inventory, hazard, impact and risk assessment and ranking methods developed by national and international efforts in Europe. It is concluded that geological knowledge on mineral resources exploration is essential and should be used for the environmental contamination assessment of mines. Also, sufficient methodological experience, knowledge and documented results are available, but harmonisation of these methods is still required for the efficient spatial environmental assessment of mine contamination.

  10. Risk factors for spatial memory impairment in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amlerova, Jana; Laczo, Jan; Vlcek, Kamil; Javurkova, Alena; Andel, Ross; Marusic, Petr

    2013-01-01

    At present, the risk factors for world-centered (allocentric) navigation impairment in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) are not known. There is some evidence on the importance of the right hippocampus but other clinical features have not been investigated yet. In this study, we used an experimental human equivalent to the Morris water maze to examine spatial navigation performance in patients with drug-refractory unilateral TLE. We included 47 left-hemisphere speech dominant patients (25 right sided; 22 left sided). The aim of our study was to identify clinical and demographic characteristics of TLE patients who performed poorly in allocentric spatial memory tests. Our results demonstrate that poor spatial navigation is significantly associated with younger age at epilepsy onset, longer disease duration, and lower intelligence level. Allocentric navigation in TLE patients was impaired irrespective of epilepsy lateralization. Good and poor navigators did not differ in their age, gender, or preoperative/postoperative status. This study provides evidence on risk factors that increase the likelihood of allocentric navigation impairment in TLE patients. The results indicate that not only temporal lobe dysfunction itself but also low general cognitive abilities may contribute to the navigation impairment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Adolescent Risk Behaviors: Studying Typical and Atypical Individuals via Multidimensional Scaling Profile Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yang; Ding, Cody

    2012-01-01

    Within the framework of problem behavior theory, the purpose of this study was to examine risk behavior profiles of typical and atypical adolescents and the differential outcomes of well-beings for these individuals in the United States. Based on the data from the survey of Health Behavior of School-Aged Children by World Health Organization,…

  12. School Readiness amongst Urban Canadian Families: Risk Profiles and Family Mediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Dillon T.; Wade, Mark; Prime, Heather; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

    2018-01-01

    There is an ongoing need for literature that identifies the effects of broad contextual risk on school readiness outcomes via family mediating mechanisms. This is especially true amongst diverse and urban samples characterized by variability in immigration history. To address this limitation, family profiles of sociodemographic and contextual risk…

  13. Validation of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale for Adolescents in Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siu, Angela F. Y.

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the reliability and validity of a Chinese-translated version of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) and explores the effect of gender and age on each of the subscales. The sensitivity of SURPS in differentiating substance users and nonusers using the SURPS is also investigated. Data were collected from a convenience…

  14. Profiles of Emergent Literacy Skills among Preschool Children Who Are at Risk for Academic Difficulties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabell, Sonia Q.; Justice, Laura M.; Konold, Timothy R.; McGinty, Anita S.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore patterns of within-group variability in the emergent literacy skills of preschoolers who are at risk for academic difficulties. We used the person-centered approach of cluster analysis to identify profiles of emergent literacy skills, taking into account both oral language and code-related skills.…

  15. Risk profile related to production and consumption of insects as food and feed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fels, van der H.J.

    2015-01-01

    The present opinion has the format of a risk profile and presents potential biological and chemical hazards as well as allergenicity and environmental hazards associated with farmed insects used as food and feed taking into account of the entire chain, from farming to the final product. The opinion

  16. Substance use risk profiles and associations with early substance use in adolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malmberg, M.; Overbeek, G.J.; Monshouwer, K.; Lammers, J.; Vollebergh, W.A.M.; Engels, R.C.M.E.

    2010-01-01

    We examined whether anxiety sensitivity, hopelessness, sensation seeking, and impulsivity (i.e., revised version of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale) would be related to the lifetime prevalence and age of onset of alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis use, and to polydrug use in early adolescence.

  17. Ethnic Differences in Cardiometabolic Risk Profile at Age 5-6 Years: The ABCD Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Hoog, Marieke L. A.; van Eijsden, Manon; Stronks, Karien; Gemke, Reinoud J. B. J.; Vrijkotte, Tanja G. M.

    2012-01-01

    Background: To examine ethnic differences in cardiometabolic risk profile in early age, and explore whether such differences can be explained by differences in body mass index (BMI) or waist circumference (WC). Method: Anthropometric measurements, blood pressure and (in a subsample) fasting blood

  18. Compact Starburst Galaxies with Fast Outflows: Spatially Resolved Stellar Mass Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlieb, Sophia; Diamond-Stanic, Aleksandar; Lipscomb, Charles; Ohene, Senyo; Rines, Josh; Moustakas, John; Sell, Paul; Tremonti, Christy; Coil, Alison; Rudnick, Gregory; Hickox, Ryan C.; Geach, James; Kepley, Amanda

    2018-01-01

    Powerful galactic winds driven by stellar feedback and black hole accretion are thought to play an important role in regulating star formation in galaxies. In particular, strong stellar feedback from supernovae, stellar winds, radiation pressure, and cosmic rays is required by simulations of star-forming galaxies to prevent the vast majority of baryons from cooling and collapsing to form stars. However, it remains unclear whether these stellar processes play a significant role in expelling gas and shutting down star formation in massive progenitors of quiescent galaxies. What are the limits of stellar feedback? We present multi-band photometry with HST/WFC3 (F475W, F814W, F160W) for a dozen compact starburst galaxies at z~0.6 with half-light radii that suggest incredibly large central escape velocities. These massive galaxies are driving fast (>1000 km/s) outflows that have been previously attributed to stellar feedback associated with the compact (r~100 pc) starburst. But how compact is the stellar mass? In the context of the stellar feedback hypothesis, it is unclear whether these fast outflows are being driven at velocities comparable to the escape velocity of an incredibly dense stellar system (as predicted by some models of radiation-pressure winds) or at velocities that exceed the central escape velocity by large factor. Our spatially resolved measurements with HST show that the stellar mass is more extended than the light, and this requires that the physical mechanism responsible for driving the winds must be able to launch gas at velocities that are factors of 5-10 beyond the central escape velocity.

  19. Low-risk factor profile, estrogen levels, and breast cancer risk among postmenopausal women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rod, Naja Hulvej; Hansen, Ase Marie; Nielsen, Jens

    2008-01-01

    Obesity, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and postmenopausal hormone use are known modifiable risk factors for breast cancer. We aim to measure incidence rates of breast cancer for women with favorable levels on all 4 risk factors (BMI......Obesity, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and postmenopausal hormone use are known modifiable risk factors for breast cancer. We aim to measure incidence rates of breast cancer for women with favorable levels on all 4 risk factors (BMI...

  20. Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradley J Tomasek

    Full Text Available As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

  1. A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Zuwei

    2003-01-01

    The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets

  2. A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuwei Yu

    2003-01-01

    The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

  3. The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gething Peter W

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution, LandScan (~1 km, UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km, and GPW3 (~5 km. More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was

  4. A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuwei Yu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States). Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering

    2003-05-01

    The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets. (author)

  5. A spatial mean-variance MIP model for energy market risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Zuwei [Indiana State Utility Forecasting Group and School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, Room 334, 1293 A.A. Potter, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States)

    2003-05-01

    The paper presents a short-term market risk model based on the Markowitz mean-variance method for spatial electricity markets. The spatial nature is captured using the correlation of geographically separated markets and the consideration of wheeling administration. The model also includes transaction costs and other practical constraints, resulting in a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. The incorporation of those practical constraints makes the model more attractive than the traditional Markowitz portfolio model with continuity. A case study is used to illustrate the practical application of the model. The results show that the MIP portfolio efficient frontier is neither smooth nor concave. The paper also considers the possible extension of the model to other energy markets, including natural gas and oil markets.

  6. Gut Microbiome Associates With Lifetime Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile Among Bogalusa Heart Study Participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Tanika N; Bazzano, Lydia A; Ajami, Nadim J; He, Hua; Zhao, Jinying; Petrosino, Joseph F; Correa, Adolfo; He, Jiang

    2016-09-30

    Few studies have systematically assessed the influence of gut microbiota on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. To examine the association between gut microbiota and lifetime CVD risk profile among 55 Bogalusa Heart Study participants with the highest and 57 with the lowest lifetime burdens of CVD risk factors. 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing was conducted on microbial DNA extracted from stool samples of the Bogalusa Heart Study participants. α Diversity, including measures of richness and evenness, and individual genera were tested for associations with lifetime CVD risk profile. Multivariable regression techniques were used to adjust for age, sex, and race (model 1), along with body mass index (model 2) and both body mass index and diet (model 3). In model 1, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for each SD increase in richness, measured by the number of observed operational taxonomic units, Chao 1 index, and abundance-based coverage estimator, were 0.62 (0.39-0.99), 0.61 (0.38-0.98), and 0.63 (0.39-0.99), respectively. Associations were consistent in models 2 and 3. Four genera were enriched among those with high versus low CVD risk profile in all models. Model 1 P values were 2.12×10(-3), 7.95×10(-5), 4.39×10(-4), and 1.51×10(-4) for Prevotella 2, Prevotella 7, Tyzzerella, and Tyzzerella 4, respectively. Two genera were depleted among those with high versus low CVD risk profile in all models. Model 1 P values were 2.96×10(-6) and 1.82×10(-4) for Alloprevotella and Catenibacterium, respectively. The current study identified associations of overall microbial richness and 6 microbial genera with lifetime CVD risk. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  7. Profile of atrial fibrillation inpatients: Cardiovascular risk factors and cardiac rehabilitation programme delivery and referral patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Robyn; Zhang, Ling; Roach, Kellie; Sadler, Leonie; Belshaw, Julie; Kirkness, Ann; Proctor, Ross; Neubeck, Lis

    2015-12-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasingly common; however, the cardiovascular risk factor profile and the patterns of delivery and referral to cardiac rehabilitation (CR) in this population are poorly described. We conducted an audit of medical records (n = 145) of patients admitted with AF in one local health district in Sydney, Australia. Patients were aged a mean 72 years, and 51% were male. Lack of risk factor documentation was common. Despite this, 65% had two or more modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, including hypertension (63%) and hypercholesterolaemia (52%). Referral to Phase II CR occurred for 25% and was decreased with permanent AF diagnosis and increased with more risk factors. AF patients admitted to hospital have multiple cardiovascular risk factors but limited risk factor screening and/or referral to outpatient CR programmes. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  8. Healthy lifestyle through young adulthood and the presence of low cardiovascular disease risk profile in middle age: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in (Young) Adults (CARDIA) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kiang; Daviglus, Martha L; Loria, Catherine M; Colangelo, Laura A; Spring, Bonnie; Moller, Arlen C; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

    2012-02-28

    A low cardiovascular disease risk profile (untreated cholesterol risk profile. We examined whether adopting a healthy lifestyle throughout young adulthood is associated with the presence of the low cardiovascular disease risk profile in middle age. The Coronary Artery Risk Development in (Young) Adults (CARDIA) study sample consisted of 3154 black and white participants 18 to 30 years of age at year 0 (1985-1986) who attended the year 0, 7, and 20 examinations. Healthy lifestyle factors defined at years 0, 7, and 20 included average body mass index risk profile at year 20 were 3.0%, 14.6%, 29.5%, 39.2%, and 60.7% for people with 0 or 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 healthy lifestyle factors, respectively (P for trend risk profile in middle age. Public health and individual efforts are needed to improve the adoption and maintenance of healthy lifestyles in young adults.

  9. Identifying areas at risk of low birth weight using spatial epidemiology: A small area surveillance study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Insaf, Tabassum Z; Talbot, Thomas

    2016-07-01

    To assess the geographic distribution of Low Birth Weight (LBW) in New York State among singleton births using a spatial regression approach in order to identify priority areas for public health actions. LBW was defined as birth weight less than 2500g. Geocoded data from 562,586 birth certificates in New York State (years 2008-2012) were merged with 2010 census data at the tract level. To provide stable estimates and maintain confidentiality, data were aggregated to yield 1268 areas of analysis. LBW prevalence among singleton births was related with area-level behavioral, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics using a Poisson mixed effects spatial error regression model. Observed low birth weight showed statistically significant auto-correlation in our study area (Moran's I 0.16 p value 0.0005). After over-dispersion correction and accounting for fixed effects for selected social determinants, spatial autocorrelation was fully accounted for (Moran's I-0.007 p value 0.241). The proportion of LBW was higher in areas with larger Hispanic or Black populations and high smoking prevalence. Smoothed maps with predicted prevalence were developed to identify areas at high risk of LBW. Spatial patterns of residual variation were analyzed to identify unique risk factors. Neighborhood racial composition contributes to disparities in LBW prevalence beyond differences in behavioral and socioeconomic factors. Small-area analyses of LBW can identify areas for targeted interventions and display unique local patterns that should be accounted for in prevention strategies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Multiple risk-behavior profiles of smokers with serious mental illness and motivation for change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prochaska, Judith J; Fromont, Sebastien C; Delucchi, Kevin; Young-Wolff, Kelly C; Benowitz, Neal L; Hall, Stephen; Bonas, Thomas; Hall, Sharon M

    2014-12-01

    Individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) are dying on average 25 years prematurely. The leading causes are chronic preventable diseases. In the context of a tobacco-treatment trial, this exploratory study examined the behavioral risk profiles of adults with SMI to identify broader interventional needs. Recruited from five acute inpatient psychiatry units, participants were 693 adult smokers (recruitment rate = 76%, 50% male, 45% Caucasian, age M = 39, 49% had income change 11 health behaviors, referencing the period prior to acute hospitalization. Participants averaged 5.2 (SD = 2.1) risk behaviors, including smoking (100%), high-fat diet (68%), inadequate fruits/vegetables (67%), poor sleep (53%), physical inactivity (52%), and marijuana use (46%). The percent prepared to change ranged from 23% for tobacco and marijuana to 76% for depression management. Latent class analysis differentiated three risk groups: the global higher risk group included patients elevated on all risk behaviors; the global lower risk group was low on all risks; and a mood and metabolic risk group, characterized by inactivity, unhealthy diet, sleep problems, and poor stress and depression management. The global higher risk group (11% of sample) was younger, largely male, and had the greatest number of risk behaviors and mental health diagnoses; had the most severe psychopathologies, addiction-treatment histories, and nicotine dependence; and the lowest confidence for quitting smoking and commitment to abstinence. Most smokers with SMI engaged in multiple risks. Expanding targets to treat co-occurring risks and personalizing treatment to individuals' multibehavioral profiles may increase intervention relevance, interest, and impact on health.

  11. Genetic risk prediction using a spatial autoregressive model with adaptive lasso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yalu; Shen, Xiaoxi; Lu, Qing

    2018-05-31

    With rapidly evolving high-throughput technologies, studies are being initiated to accelerate the process toward precision medicine. The collection of the vast amounts of sequencing data provides us with great opportunities to systematically study the role of a deep catalog of sequencing variants in risk prediction. Nevertheless, the massive amount of noise signals and low frequencies of rare variants in sequencing data pose great analytical challenges on risk prediction modeling. Motivated by the development in spatial statistics, we propose a spatial autoregressive model with adaptive lasso (SARAL) for risk prediction modeling using high-dimensional sequencing data. The SARAL is a set-based approach, and thus, it reduces the data dimension and accumulates genetic effects within a single-nucleotide variant (SNV) set. Moreover, it allows different SNV sets having various magnitudes and directions of effect sizes, which reflects the nature of complex diseases. With the adaptive lasso implemented, SARAL can shrink the effects of noise SNV sets to be zero and, thus, further improve prediction accuracy. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that, overall, SARAL is comparable to, if not better than, the genomic best linear unbiased prediction method. The method is further illustrated by an application to the sequencing data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Cariogram caries risk profiles in adolescent orthodontic patients with and without some salivary variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petsi, Georgia; Gizani, Sotiria; Twetman, Svante

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the Cariogram caries risk profiles with and without salivary buffer capacity and mutans streptococci (MS) counts in adolescents with fixed orthodontic appliances. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The sample consisted of 90 healthy Greek adolescents who were undergoing orthodontic...... to the medium risk category when MS counts were excluded. The difference between the nine-item Cariogram and the MS-reduced version, however, was not statistically significant (P  =  .07). CONCLUSIONS: The Cariogram model may be used both with and without salivary tests for risk grouping in orthodontic practice....

  13. Utilization of ACL Injury Biomechanical and Neuromuscular Risk Profile Analysis to Determine the Effectiveness of Neuromuscular Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewett, Timothy E; Ford, Kevin R; Xu, Yingying Y; Khoury, Jane; Myer, Gregory D

    2016-12-01

    The widespread use of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury prevention interventions has not been effective in reducing the injury incidence among female athletes who participate in high-risk sports. The purpose of this study was to determine if biomechanical and neuromuscular factors that contribute to the knee abduction moment (KAM), a predictor of future ACL injuries, could be used to characterize athletes by a distinct factor. Specifically, we hypothesized that a priori selected biomechanical and neuromuscular factors would characterize participants into distinct at-risk profiles. Controlled laboratory study. A total of 624 female athletes who participated in jumping, cutting, and pivoting sports underwent testing before their competitive season. During testing, athletes performed drop-jump tasks from which biomechanical measures were captured. Using data from these tasks, latent profile analysis (LPA) was conducted to identify distinct profiles based on preintervention biomechanical and neuromuscular measures. As a validation, we examined whether the profile membership was a significant predictor of the KAM. LPA using 6 preintervention biomechanical measures selected a priori resulted in 3 distinct profiles, including a low (profile 1), moderate (profile 2), and high (profile 3) risk for ACL injuries. Athletes with profiles 2 and 3 had a significantly higher KAM compared with those with profile 1 (P risk profiles. Three distinct risk groups were identified based on differences in the peak KAM. These findings demonstrate the existence of discernable groups of athletes that may benefit from injury prevention interventions. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT identifier: NCT01034527. © 2016 The Author(s).

  14. Nursing Diagnosis Risk for falls: prevalence and clinical profile of hospitalized patients1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luzia, Melissa de Freitas; Victor, Marco Antonio de Goes; Lucena, Amália de Fátima

    2014-01-01

    Objectives to identify the prevalence of the Nursing Diagnosis (ND) Risk for falls in the hospitalizations of adult patients in clinical and surgical units, to characterize the clinical profile and to identify the risk factors of the patients with this ND. Method a cross-sectional study with 174 patients. The data was collected from the computerized nursing care prescriptions system and on-line hospital records, and analyzed statistically. Results the prevalence of the ND Risk for falls was 4%. The patients' profile indicated older adults, males (57%), those hospitalized in the clinical units (63.2%), with a median length of hospitalization of 20 (10-24) days, with neurological illnesses (26%), cardio-vascular illnesses (74.1%) and various co-morbidities (3±1.8). The prevalent risk factors were neurological alterations (43.1%), impaired mobility (35.6%) and extremes of age (10.3%). Conclusion the findings contributed to evidencing the profile of the patients with a risk of falling hospitalized in clinical and surgical wards, which favors the planning of interventions for preventing this adverse event. PMID:26107834

  15. Nursing Diagnosis Risk for falls: prevalence and clinical profile of hospitalized patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luzia, Melissa de Freitas; Victor, Marco Antonio de Goes; Lucena, Amália de Fátima

    2014-01-01

    to identify the prevalence of the Nursing Diagnosis (ND) Risk for falls in the hospitalizations of adult patients in clinical and surgical units, to characterize the clinical profile and to identify the risk factors of the patients with this ND. a cross-sectional study with 174 patients. The data was collected from the computerized nursing care prescriptions system and on-line hospital records, and analyzed statistically. the prevalence of the ND Risk for falls was 4%. The patients' profile indicated older adults, males (57%), those hospitalized in the clinical units (63.2%), with a median length of hospitalization of 20 (10-24) days, with neurological illnesses (26%), cardio-vascular illnesses (74.1%) and various co-morbidities (3±1.8). The prevalent risk factors were neurological alterations (43.1%), impaired mobility (35.6%) and extremes of age (10.3%). the findings contributed to evidencing the profile of the patients with a risk of falling hospitalized in clinical and surgical wards, which favors the planning of interventions for preventing this adverse event.

  16. Improving spatial prediction of Schistosoma haematobium prevalence in southern Ghana through new remote sensors and local water access profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulinkina, Alexandra V; Walz, Yvonne; Koch, Magaly; Biritwum, Nana-Kwadwo; Utzinger, Jürg; Naumova, Elena N

    2018-06-04

    Schistosomiasis is a water-related neglected tropical disease. In many endemic low- and middle-income countries, insufficient surveillance and reporting lead to poor characterization of the demographic and geographic distribution of schistosomiasis cases. Hence, modeling is relied upon to predict areas of high transmission and to inform control strategies. We hypothesized that utilizing remotely sensed (RS) environmental data in combination with water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) variables could improve on the current predictive modeling approaches. Schistosoma haematobium prevalence data, collected from 73 rural Ghanaian schools, were used in a random forest model to investigate the predictive capacity of 15 environmental variables derived from RS data (Landsat 8, Sentinel-2, and Global Digital Elevation Model) with fine spatial resolution (10-30 m). Five methods of variable extraction were tested to determine the spatial linkage between school-based prevalence and the environmental conditions of potential transmission sites, including applying the models to known human water contact locations. Lastly, measures of local water access and groundwater quality were incorporated into RS-based models to assess the relative importance of environmental and WASH variables. Predictive models based on environmental characterization of specific locations where people contact surface water bodies offered some improvement as compared to the traditional approach based on environmental characterization of locations where prevalence is measured. A water index (MNDWI) and topographic variables (elevation and slope) were important environmental risk factors, while overall, groundwater iron concentration predominated in the combined model that included WASH variables. The study helps to understand localized drivers of schistosomiasis transmission. Specifically, unsatisfactory water quality in boreholes perpetuates reliance of surface water bodies, indirectly increasing

  17. Malaria prevalence, risk factors and spatial distribution in a hilly forest area of Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ubydul Haque

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria is a major public health concern in Bangladesh and it is highly endemic in the Chittagong Hill Tracts where prevalence was 11.7% in 2007. One sub-district, Rajasthali, had a prevalence of 36%. Several interventions were introduced in early 2007 to control malaria. This study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of these intensive early stage interventions on malaria in Bangladesh. This prevalence study assesses whether or not high malaria prevalence remains, and if so, which areas and individuals remain at high risk of infection. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A 2-stage cluster sampling technique was used to sample 1,400 of 5,322 (26.3% households in Rajasthali, and screened using a rapid diagnostic test (Falci-vax. Overall malaria prevalence was 11.5%. The proportions of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and infection with both species were 93.2%, 1.9% and 5.0%, respectively. Univariate, multivariate logistic regression, and spatial cluster analyses were performed separately. Sex, age, number of bed nets, forest cover, altitude and household density were potential risk factors. A statistically significant malaria cluster was identified. Significant differences among risk factors were observed between cluster and non-cluster areas. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE: Malaria has significantly decreased within 2 years after onset of intervention program. Both aspects of the physical and social environment, as well as demographic characteristics are associated with spatial heterogeneity of risk. The ability to identify and locate these areas provides a strategy for targeting interventions during initial stages of intervention programs. However, in high risk clusters of transmission, even extensive coverage by current programs leaves transmission ongoing at reduced levels. This indicates the need for continued development of new strategies for identification and treatment as well as improved understanding of the patterns and

  18. Lowering risk score profile during PCI in multiple vessel disease is associated with low adverse events: The ERACI risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Alfredo E; Fernandez-Pereira, Carlos; Mieres, Juan; Pavlovsky, Hernan; Del Pozo, Juan; Rodriguez-Granillo, Alfredo M; Antoniucci, David

    2018-02-13

    In recent years angiographic risk scores have been introduced in clinical practice to stratify different levels of risk after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). The SYNTAX score included all intermediate lesions in vessels ≥1.5 mm, consequently, multiple stent implantation was required. Four years ago, we built a new angiographic score in order to guide PCI strategy avoiding stent deployment both in intermediate stenosis as in small vessels, therefore these were not scored (ERACI risk score). The purpose of this mini review is to validate the strategy of PCI guided by this scoring, taking into account long term follow up outcomes of two observational and prospective registries where this policy was used. With this new risk score we have modified risk profile of our patient's candidates for PCI or coronary artery bypass surgery lowering the risk and PCI. The simple exclusion of small vessels and intermediate stenosis from the revascularization approach resulted in clinical outcome comparable with the one of fractional flow reserve guided revascularization. Low events rate at late follow up observed in both studies was also in agreement with guided PCI by functional lesion assessment observed by Syntax II registry, where investigators found lower events rate in spite of a few number of stents implanted per patient. use of ERACI risk scores may significantly reclassify patients into a lower risk category and be associated with low adverse events rate. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Appreciating Complexity in Adolescent Self-Harm Risk Factors: Psychological Profiling in a Longitudinal Community Sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanford, Sarah; Jones, Michael P; Hudson, Jennifer L

    2018-05-01

    Past research identifies a number of risk factors for adolescent self-harm, but often fails to account for overlap between these factors. This study investigated the underlying, broader concepts by identifying different psychological profiles among adolescents. We then compared new self-harm rates over a six-month period across different psychological profiles. Australian high school students (n = 326, 68.1% female) completed a questionnaire including a broad range of psychological and socioenvironmental risk and protective factors. Non-hierarchical cluster analysis produced six groups with different psychological profiles at baseline and rate of new self-harm at follow-up. The lowest rate was 1.4% in a group that appeared psychologically healthy; the highest rate was 37.5% in a group that displayed numerous psychological difficulties. Four groups with average self-harm had varied psychological profiles including low impulsivity, anxiety, impulsivity, and poor use of positive coping strategies. Identifying multiple profiles with distinct psychological characteristics can improve detection, guide prevention, and tailor treatment.

  20. Cardiovascular and metabolic profiles amongst different polycystic ovary syndrome phenotypes: who is really at risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daan, Nadine M P; Louwers, Yvonne V; Koster, Maria P H; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; de Rijke, Yolanda B; Lentjes, Eef W G; Fauser, Bart C J M; Laven, Joop S E

    2014-11-01

    To study the cardiometabolic profile characteristics and compare the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors between women with different polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) phenotypes. A cross-sectional multicenter study analyzing 2,288 well phenotyped women with PCOS. Specialized reproductive outpatient clinic. Women of reproductive age (18-45 years) diagnosed with PCOS. Women suspected of oligo- or anovulation underwent a standardized screening consisting of a systematic medical and reproductive history taking, anthropometric measurements, and transvaginal ultrasonography followed by an extensive endocrinologic/metabolic evaluation. Differences in cardiometabolic profile characteristics and CV risk factor prevalence between women with different PCOS phenotypes, i.e., obesity/overweight, hypertension, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, and metabolic syndrome. Women with hyperandrogenic PCOS (n=1,219; 53.3% of total) presented with a worse cardiometabolic profile and a higher prevalence of CV risk factors, such as obesity and overweight, insulin resistance, and metabolic syndrome, compared with women with nonhyperandrogenic PCOS. In women with nonhyperandrogenic PCOS overweight/obesity (28.5%) and dyslipidemia (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol≥3.0 mmol/L; 52.2%) were highly prevalent. Women with hyperandrogenic PCOS have a worse cardiometabolic profile and higher prevalence of CV risk factors compared with women with nonhyperandrogenic PCOS. However, all women with PCOS should be screened for the presence of CV risk factors, since the frequently found derangements at a young age imply an elevated risk for the development of CV disease later in life. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk Profile in a Sample of Patients with Breast Cancer from the Public Health Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorina IRIMIE

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Cancer represents a major public health and economical burden in developed countries and has emerged as a major public health problem in developing countries, matching its effect in industrialized nations. Although there have been recent declines in breast cancer mortality rates in some European Union countries, breast cancer remains of key importance to public health in Europe. Now days there is increasing recognition of the causative role of lifestyle factors, as smoking, diet, alcohol consumption, or lake of physical activity. The present study aimed to appreciate the presence and magnitude of modifiable risk factors for breast cancer in a sample of patients diagnosed with the disease, and to outline a risk profile liable to be changed in the intention of reducing the global risk. Risk factors have been investigated in 65 patients diagnosed with breast cancer using a questionnaire for breast cancer risk factors evaluation. The high risk profile was identified as taking shape for urban environment, modulated by the impact of overweight-obesity, smoking, reproductive factors and environmental exposure to different chemical substances. From the public health perspective, the control of overweight and obesity comes out in the foreground of preventive activities. Public health approaches emphasize on inexpensive, practical methods and in this perspective the approach of obesity should focus on the alteration of environmental context, promoting healthy eating and increased physical activity which could have a positive, independent impact on breast cancer risk

  2. Risk profiles of personality traits for suicidality among mood disorder patients and community controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, M-H; Chen, H-C; Lu, M-L; Feng, J; Chen, I-M; Wu, C-S; Chang, S-W; Kuo, P-H

    2018-01-01

    To examine the associations between personality traits and suicidal ideation (SI) and attempt (SA) in mood disorder patients and community controls. We recruited 365 bipolar, 296 major depressive disorder patients, and 315 community controls to assess their lifetime suicidality. Participants filled out self-reported personality questionnaires to collect data of personality traits, including novelty seeking (NS), harm avoidance (HA), extraversion (E), and neuroticism (N). We used logistic regression models adjusted for diagnoses to analyze combinational effects of personality traits on the risk of suicide. Additionally, radar charts display personality profiles for suicidal behaviours by groups. All personality traits were associated with the risk of suicidality with various effect size, except for E that showed protective effect. High N or HA had prominent and independent risk effects on SI and SA. Combinations of high N and low E, or high HA and NS were the risk personality profiles for suicidality. Higher N scores further distinguished SA from SI in mood disorder patients. Introvert personality traits showed independent risk effects on suicidality regardless of diagnosis status. Among high-risk individuals with suicidal thoughts, higher neuroticism tendency is further associated with increased risk of suicide attempt. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Memory Resilience to Alzheimer's Genetic Risk: Sex Effects in Predictor Profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, Kirstie L; McFall, G Peggy; Andrews, Shea J; Anstey, Kaarin J; Dixon, Roger A

    2017-10-01

    Apolipoprotein E (APOE) ɛ4 and Clusterin (CLU) C alleles are risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and episodic memory (EM) decline. Memory resilience occurs when genetically at-risk adults perform at high and sustained levels. We investigated whether (a) memory resilience to AD genetic risk is predicted by biological and other risk markers and (b) the prediction profiles vary by sex and AD risk variant. Using a longitudinal sample of nondemented adults (n = 642, aged 53-95) we focused on memory resilience (over 9 years) to 2 AD risk variants (APOE, CLU). Growth mixture models classified resilience. Random forest analysis, stratified by sex, tested the predictive importance of 22 nongenetic risk factors from 5 domains (n = 24-112). For both sexes, younger age, higher education, stronger grip, and everyday novel cognitive activity predicted memory resilience. For women, 9 factors from functional, health, mobility, and lifestyle domains were also predictive. For men, only fewer depressive symptoms was an additional important predictor. The prediction profiles were similar for APOE and CLU. Although several factors predicted resilience in both sexes, a greater number applied only to women. Sex-specific mechanisms and intervention targets are implied. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Cardiovascular risk profile in patients with myelopathy associated with HTLV-1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prado, Fabio Luís Silva do; Prado, Renata; Ladeia, Ana Marice Teixeira

    HAM/TSP (HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis) is a slowly progressive disease, characterized by a chronic spastic paraparesis. It is not known if the disease carries an independent risk for cardiovascular disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cardiovascular risk profile related to HAM/TSP and compare it with the general population. This was a cross-sectional study, with a control group. HAM/TSP patients were evaluated using cardiovascular risk scores (ASCVD RISK, SCORE and Framingham) and inflammatory markers (ultrasensitive CRP and IL-6), and compared with a control group of healthy individuals. We also evaluated the correlation between cardiovascular risk and the functional status of patients with HAM/TSP evaluated by the FIM scale. Eighty percent of patients in this study were females, mean age of 51 years (11.3). The control group showed an increased cardiovascular event risk in 10 years when ASCVD was analyzed (cardiovascular risk ≥7.5% in 10 years seen in 43% of patients in the control group vs. 23% of patients with HAM/TSP; p=0.037). There was no difference in ultrasensitive CRP or IL-6 values between the groups, even when groups were stratified into low and high risk. There was no correlation between the functional status of HAM/TSP patients and the cardiovascular risk. In this study, the cardiovascular risk profile of patients with HAM/TSP was better than the risk of the control group. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  5. Cardiovascular risk profile and lifestyle habits in a cohort of Italian cardiologists (from the SOCRATES Survey).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temporelli, Pier Luigi; Zito, Giovanni; Faggiano, Pompilio

    2013-07-15

    Cardiologists' cardiovascular profile and lifestyle habits are poorly known worldwide. To offer a snapshot of the personal health habits of Italian cardiologists, the Survey on Cardiac Risk Profile and Lifestyle Habits in a Cohort of Italian Cardiologists (SOCRATES) was undertaken. A Web-based electronic self-reported survey, accessible through a dedicated Web site, was used for data entry, and data were transferred through the Web to a central database. The survey was divided into 4 sections: baseline characteristics, medical illnesses and traditional cardiovascular risk factors, lifestyle habits, and selected medication use. The e-mail databases of 3 national scientific societies were used to survey a large and representative sample of Italian cardiologists. During the 3-month period of the survey, 1,770 of the 5,240 cardiologists contacted (33.7%) completed and returned ≥1 sections of the questionnaire. More than 49% of the participants had 1 of the 5 classic risk factors (hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, active smoking, diabetes, and previous vascular events). More than 28% of respondents had 2 to 5 risk factors, and only 22.1% had none and therefore, according to age and gender, could be considered at low to intermediate risk. Despite the reported risk factors, >90% of cardiologists had a self-reported risk perception quantified as mild, such as low or intermediate. Furthermore, overweight and obesity, physical inactivity, and stress at work or at home were commonly reported, as well as limited use of cardiovascular drugs, such as statins or aspirin. In conclusion, the average cardiovascular profile of Italian cardiologist is unlikely to be considered ideal or even favorable according to recent statements and guidelines regarding cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Concentrations, spatial distribution, and risk assessment of soil heavy metals in a Zn-Pb mine district in southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Jianying; Zhang, Hailong; Li, Xiangping; Lu, Jian; Zhang, Gaosheng

    2016-07-01

    China is one of the largest producers and consumers of lead and zinc in the world. Lead and zinc mining and smelting can release hazardous heavy metals such as Cd, Pb, Zn, and As into soils, exerting health risks to human by chronic exposure. The concentrations of Cd, Zn, Pb, and As in soil samples collected from a Pb-Zn mining area with exploitation history of 60 years were investigated. Health risks of the heavy metals in soil were evaluated using US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) recommended method. A geo-statistical technique (Kriging) was used for the interpolation of heavy metals pollution and Hazard Index (HI). The results indicated that the long-term Pb/Zn mining activities caused the serious pollution in the local soil. The concentrations of Cd, As, Pb, and Zn in topsoil were 40.3 ± 6.3, 103.7 ± 37.3, 3518.4 ± 896.1, and 10,413 ± 2973.2 mg/kg dry weight, respectively. The spatial distribution of the four metals possessed similar patterns, with higher concentrations around Aayiken (AYK), Maseka (MSK), and Kuangshan (KS) area and more rapidly dropped concentrations at upwind direction than those at downwind direction. The main pollutions of Cd and Zn were found in the upper 60 cm, the Pb was found in the upper 40 cm, and the As was in the upper 20 cm. The mobility of metals in soil profile of study area was classed as Cd > Zn ≫ Pb > As. Results indicated that there was a higher health risk (child higher than adult) in the study area. Pb contributed to the highest Hazard Quotient (57.0 ~ 73.9 %) for the Hazard Index.

  7. A preliminary spatial assessment of risk: Marine birds and chronic oil pollution on Canada's Pacific coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, C H; O'Hara, P D; Bertazzon, S; Morgan, K; Underwood, F E; Paquet, P C

    2016-12-15

    Chronic oil pollution poses substantial risks to marine birds and other marine wildlife worldwide. On Canada's Pacific coast, the negative ecological consequences to marine birds and marine ecosystems in general remain poorly understood. Using information relating to oil spill probability of occurrence, areas of overall importance to marine birds, and the at-sea distribution and density of 12 marine bird species and seven bird groups, including multiple Species at Risk, we undertook a spatial assessment of risk. Our results identify two main areas important to marine birds potentially at higher risk of exposure to oil. For individual bird species or species groups, those predicted to have elevated bird densities near the mainland and the northeast coast of Vancouver Island were identified as being at higher potential risk of exposure. Our results, however, should be considered preliminary. As with other anthropogenic stressors, in order to better understand and subsequently mitigate the consequences of chronic oil pollution on marine birds, improved information relating to marine birds and the occurrence of oil spills on Canada's Pacific coast is needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Uses of Youth Risk Behavior Survey and School Health Profiles Data: Applications for Improving Adolescent and School Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foti, Kathryn; Balaji, Alexandra; Shanklin, Shari

    2011-01-01

    Background: To monitor priority health risk behaviors and school health policies and practices, respectively, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) developed the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) and the School Health Profiles (Profiles). CDC is often asked about the use and application of these survey data to improve…

  9. Healthy Lifestyle through Young Adulthood and Presence of Low Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile in Middle Age: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in (Young) Adults (CARDIA) Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kiang; Daviglus, Martha L.; Loria, Catherine M.; Colangelo, Laura A.; Spring, Bonnie; Moller, Arlen C.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.

    2012-01-01

    Background A low cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile (untreated cholesterol risk profile. We examined whether adopting a healthy lifestyle throughout young adulthood is associated with presence of the low CVD risk profile in middle age. Methods and Results The CARDIA study sample consisted of 3,154 black and white participants aged 18 to 30 years at Year 0 (Y0, 1985-86) who attended the Year 0, 7 and 20 (Y0, Y7 and Y20) examinations. Healthy lifestyle factors (HLFs) defined at Y0, Y7 and Y20 included: 1) Average BMI risk profile at Y20 were 3.0%, 14.6%, 29.5%, 39.2% and 60.7% for people with 0 or 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 HLFs, respectively (p-trend risk profile in middle age. Public health and individual efforts are needed to improve adoption and maintenance of healthy lifestyles in young adults. PMID:22291127

  10. Demonstration of Risk Profiling for promoting safety in SME´s

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kirsten; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Troen, Hanne

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify and assess the risks and potential risks that may lead to accidents. It aims to look at how to improve risk assessment within SMEs for the benefit of all staff. Design/methodology/approach – The research included results from a Dutch project which...... identifies accident risks and safety barriers that are presented in a huge database and risk calculator. The method was first to develop a simple way of accessing this enormous amount of data, second, to develop a tool to observe risks and safety barriers in SMEs and to investigate the usefulness...... of the developed tools in real life, third, to collect data on risks and safety barriers in SMEs for two occupations by following 20 people for three days each and to create a risk profile for each occupations. Findings – The result is a simple way to go through all types of risks for accidents – a tool for risk...

  11. The expression profile of phosphatidylinositol in high spatial resolution imaging mass spectrometry as a potential biomarker for prostate cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takayuki Goto

    Full Text Available High-resolution matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization imaging mass spectrometry (HR-MALDI-IMS is an emerging application for the comprehensive and detailed analysis of the spatial distribution of ionized molecules in situ on tissue slides. HR-MALDI-IMS in negative mode in a mass range of m/z 500-1000 was performed on optimal cutting temperature (OCT compound-embedded human prostate tissue samples obtained from patients with prostate cancer at the time of radical prostatectomy. HR-MALDI-IMS analysis of the 14 samples in the discovery set identified 26 molecules as highly expressed in the prostate. Tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS showed that these molecules included 14 phosphatidylinositols (PIs, 3 phosphatidylethanolamines (PEs and 3 phosphatidic acids (PAs. Among the PIs, the expression of PI(18:0/18:1, PI(18:0/20:3 and PI(18:0/20:2 were significantly higher in cancer tissue than in benign epithelium. A biomarker algorithm for prostate cancer was formulated by analyzing the expression profiles of PIs in cancer tissue and benign epithelium of the discovery set using orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA. The sensitivity and specificity of this algorithm for prostate cancer diagnosis in the 24 validation set samples were 87.5 and 91.7%, respectively. In conclusion, HR-MALDI-IMS identified several PIs as being more highly expressed in prostate cancer than benign prostate epithelium. These differences in PI expression profiles may serve as a novel diagnostic tool for prostate cancer.

  12. Does Lipid Profile Affect Thrombin Generation During Ramadan Fasting in Patients With Cardiovascular Risks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sassi, Mouna; Chakroun, Taher; Chouchène, Saoussen; Hellara, Ilhem; Boubaker, Hamdi; Grissa, Mohamed Habib; Khochtali, Ines; Hassine, Mohsen; Addad, Faouzi; Elalamy, Ismail; Nouira, Semir

    2017-11-01

    There is evidence that diet and variation in lipid metabolism can influence blood coagulation, but little is known about the effect of Ramadan fasting on plasmatic coagulation pattern. We investigated the effect of Ramadan fasting on thrombin generation (TG) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks, and we aimed to assess the effect of lipid profile on TG parameters. The study was conducted in 36 adults having at least 2 CVD risks and in 30 healthy controls. Coagulation pattern was assessed by both classical clotting times and TG test. A complete lipid profile was performed simultaneously. Patients were invited 2 times: 1 week before Ramadan and during the last week of the Ramadan. The TG parameters were not different in patients with CVD risks compared to healthy controls. Fasting had no effect on plasmatic coagulation parameters and on TG profile. Individual analysis of the mean rate index (MRI) of TG revealed 3 groups: group 1 with no modification of MRI, group 2 with a significant increase in MRI (81.64 nM/min vs 136.07 nM/min; P fasting did not influence the global coagulation pattern in patients with CVD risks. Whereas, a significant increase in the propagation phase of TG was associated with a significant increase in cholesterol levels, which was not found with the other TG parameters.

  13. The substance use risk profile scale: a scale measuring traits linked to reinforcement-specific substance use profiles.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woicik, P.A.; Stewart, S.H.; Pihl, R.O.; Conrod, P.J.

    2009-12-01

    The Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) is based on a model of personality risk for substance abuse in which four personality dimensions (hopelessness, anxiety sensitivity, impulsivity, and sensation seeking) are hypothesized to differentially relate to specific patterns of substance use. The current series of studies is a preliminary exploration of the psychometric properties of the SURPS in two populations (undergraduate and high school students). In study 1, an analysis of the internal structure of two versions of the SURPS shows that the abbreviated version best reflects the 4-factor structure. Concurrent, discriminant, and incremental validity of the SURPS is supported by convergent/divergent relationships between the SURPS subscales and other theoretically relevant personality and drug use criterion measures. In Study 2, the factorial structure of the SURPS is confirmed and evidence is provided for its test-retest reliability and validity with respect to measuring personality vulnerability to reinforcement-specific substance use patterns. In Study 3, the SURPS was administered in a more youthful population to test its sensitivity in identifying younger problematic drinkers. The results from the current series of studies demonstrate support for the reliability and construct validity of the SURPS, and suggest that four personality dimensions may be linked to substance-related behavior through different reinforcement processes. This brief assessment tool may have important implications for clinicians and future research.

  14. Defining a Contemporary Ischemic Heart Disease Genetic Risk Profile Using Historical Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosley, Jonathan D; van Driest, Sara L; Wells, Quinn S; Shaffer, Christian M; Edwards, Todd L; Bastarache, Lisa; McCarty, Catherine A; Thompson, Will; Chute, Christopher G; Jarvik, Gail P; Crosslin, David R; Larson, Eric B; Kullo, Iftikhar J; Pacheco, Jennifer A; Peissig, Peggy L; Brilliant, Murray H; Linneman, James G; Denny, Josh C; Roden, Dan M

    2016-12-01

    Continued reductions in morbidity and mortality attributable to ischemic heart disease (IHD) require an understanding of the changing epidemiology of this disease. We hypothesized that we could use genetic correlations, which quantify the shared genetic architectures of phenotype pairs and extant risk factors from a historical prospective study to define the risk profile of a contemporary IHD phenotype. We used 37 phenotypes measured in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; n=7716, European ancestry subjects) and clinical diagnoses from an electronic health record (EHR) data set (n=19 093). All subjects had genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism genotyping. We measured pairwise genetic correlations (rG) between the ARIC and EHR phenotypes using linear mixed models. The genetic correlation estimates between the ARIC risk factors and the EHR IHD were modestly linearly correlated with hazards ratio estimates for incident IHD in ARIC (Pearson correlation [r]=0.62), indicating that the 2 IHD phenotypes had differing risk profiles. For comparison, this correlation was 0.80 when comparing EHR and ARIC type 2 diabetes mellitus phenotypes. The EHR IHD phenotype was most strongly correlated with ARIC metabolic phenotypes, including total:high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (rG=-0.44, P=0.005), high-density lipoprotein (rG=-0.48, P=0.005), systolic blood pressure (rG=0.44, P=0.02), and triglycerides (rG=0.38, P=0.02). EHR phenotypes related to type 2 diabetes mellitus, atherosclerotic, and hypertensive diseases were also genetically correlated with these ARIC risk factors. The EHR IHD risk profile differed from ARIC and indicates that treatment and prevention efforts in this population should target hypertensive and metabolic disease. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  15. Risk Profile of Hepatitis E Virus from Pigs or Pork in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelm, B; Fazil, A; Rajić, A; Houde, A; McEwen, S A

    2017-12-01

    The role and importance of pigs and pork as sources of zoonotic hepatitis E virus (HEV) has been debated in Canada and abroad for over 20 years. To further investigate this question, we compiled data to populate a risk profile for HEV in pigs or pork in Canada. We organized the risk profile (RP) using the headings prescribed for a foodborne microbial risk assessment and used research synthesis methods and inputs wherever possible in populating the fields of this RP. A scoping review of potential public health risks of HEV, and two Canadian field surveys sampling finisher pigs, and retail pork chops and pork livers, provided inputs to inform this RP. We calculated summary estimates of prevalence using the Comprehensive Meta-analysis 3 software, employing the method of moments. Overall, we found the incidence of sporadic locally acquired hepatitis E in Canada, compiled from peer-reviewed literature or from diagnosis at the National Microbiology Laboratory to be low relative to other non-endemic countries. In contrast, we found the prevalence of detection of HEV RNA in pigs and retail pork livers, to be comparable to that reported in the USA and Europe. We drafted risk categories (high/medium/low) for acquiring clinical hepatitis E from exposure to pigs or pork in Canada and hypothesize that the proportion of the Canadian population at high risk from either exposure is relatively small. © 2016 Crown copyright.

  16. Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease Polygenic Risk Profile Score Predicts Hippocampal Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Ena; Chen, Qiang; Goldman, Aaron L; Tan, Hao Yang; Healy, Kaitlin; Zoltick, Brad; Das, Saumitra; Kolachana, Bhaskar; Callicott, Joseph H; Dickinson, Dwight; Berman, Karen F; Weinberger, Daniel R; Mattay, Venkata S

    2017-11-01

    We explored the cumulative effect of several late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) risk loci using a polygenic risk profile score (RPS) approach on measures of hippocampal function, cognition, and brain morphometry. In a sample of 231 healthy control subjects (19-55 years of age), we used an RPS to study the effect of several LOAD risk loci reported in a recent meta-analysis on hippocampal function (determined by its engagement with blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging during episodic memory) and several cognitive metrics. We also studied effects on brain morphometry in an overlapping sample of 280 subjects. There was almost no significant association of LOAD-RPS with cognitive or morphometric measures. However, there was a significant negative relationship between LOAD-RPS and hippocampal function (familywise error [small volume correction-hippocampal region of interest] p risk score based on APOE haplotype, and for a combined LOAD-RPS + APOE haplotype risk profile score (p risk genes on hippocampal function even in healthy volunteers. The effect of LOAD-RPS on hippocampal function in the relative absence of any effect on cognitive and morphometric measures is consistent with the reported temporal characteristics of LOAD biomarkers with the earlier manifestation of synaptic dysfunction before morphometric and cognitive changes. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk avoidance versus risk reduction: a framework and segmentation profile for understanding adolescent sexual activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Christopher D; Tanner, John F; Raymond, Mary Anne

    2004-01-01

    The teen birthrate in the United States is twice that of other industrialized nations. Adolescents in the U.S. are among high-risk groups for HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. As a result, the Department of Health and Human Services changed its policy on the promotion of abstinence to teenagers from a focus on a risk reduction strategy to a focus on a risk avoidance strategy. In order to create more effective risk avoidance as well as risk reduction campaigns, this study proposes a framework to illustrate the distinction that teens make between spontaneous sexual activity and planned sexual activity, as well as those teens that make a commitment to abstinence versus abstinence by default. Furthermore, this study classifies teens into three behavior segments (abstemious, promiscuous and monogamous) and then assesses specific differences that exist within these groups relative to their attitudes and perceptions concerning abstinence, sexual activity, contraception, fear and norms. This change in focus from a risk reduction to a risk avoidance strategy has important implications for social marketing, public policy and marketing theory.

  18. Towards assessing fine-scale indicators for the spatial transmission risk of Fasciola hepatica in cattle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Charlier

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the spatial resolution of current risk maps for fasciolosis in cattle, more knowledge is needed with respect to farm-level factors that determine infection risk. In this study, we visited 39 dairy farms within a predefined low- and high-risk area for fasciolosis in Belgium and assessed their infection status by an indirect bulk tank milk enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. Management factors were collected and all pastured lands of the farms were visited to identify and georeference potential snail habitats. The habitats were visually characterised, investigated for the presence of the intermediate host snails of Fasciola hepatica (i.e.Galba truncatula and Radix spp. and used in a geographical information system (GIS to construct overlays including information on soil and hydrology. A linear regression model was used to evaluate associations between bulk tank milk ELISA results and farm level management and habitat factors. A logistic, mixed model was used to identify possible risk factors for the presence of intermediate host snails on a potential habitat. Potential snail habitats were found in 35 out of 39 farms. A total of 87 potential habitats were identified and on 29% of these, intermediate host snails were found. The number of potential habitats, the presence of snails, drainage of pastures, month of turnout of the cows, stocking rate, type of watering place and risk area were significantly associated with the bulk tank milk ELISA result and explained 85% of the observed variation. Intermediate host snails were more likely to be present with increasing surface of the potential habitat and on loamy soils. This study confirms the importance of farm management factors in the infection risk for F. hepatica in cattle and highlights that the combination of management factors with characterization of snail habitats is a powerful means to predict the infection risk with F. hepatica at the individual farm level. Further

  19. Sunlight Modulates Fruit Metabolic Profile and Shapes the Spatial Pattern of Compound Accumulation within the Grape Cluster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reshef, Noam; Walbaum, Natasha; Agam, Nurit; Fait, Aaron

    2017-01-01

    Vineyards are characterized by their large spatial variability of solar irradiance (SI) and temperature, known to effectively modulate grape metabolism. To explore the role of sunlight in shaping fruit composition and cluster uniformity, we studied the spatial pattern of incoming irradiance, fruit temperature and metabolic profile within individual grape clusters under three levels of sunlight exposure. The experiment was conducted in a vineyard of Cabernet Sauvignon cv. located in the Negev Highlands, Israel, where excess SI and midday temperatures are known to degrade grape quality. Filtering SI lowered the surface temperature of exposed fruits and increased the uniformity of irradiance and temperature in the cluster zone. SI affected the overall levels and patterns of accumulation of sugars, organic acids, amino acids and phenylpropanoids, across the grape cluster. Increased exposure to sunlight was associated with lower accumulation levels of malate, aspartate, and maleate but with higher levels of valine, leucine, and serine, in addition to the stress-related proline and GABA. Flavan-3-ols metabolites showed a negative response to SI, whereas flavonols were highly induced. The overall levels of anthocyanins decreased with increased sunlight exposure; however, a hierarchical cluster analysis revealed that the members of this family were grouped into three distinct accumulation patterns, with malvidin anthocyanins and cyanidin-glucoside showing contrasting trends. The flavonol-glucosides, quercetin and kaempferol, exhibited a logarithmic response to SI, leading to improved cluster uniformity under high-light conditions. Comparing the within-cluster variability of metabolite accumulation highlighted the stability of sugars, flavan-3-ols, and cinnamic acid metabolites to SI, in contrast to the plasticity of flavonols. A correlation-based network analysis revealed that extended exposure to SI modified metabolic coordination, increasing the number of negative

  20. Towards a resource-based habitat approach for spatial modelling of vector-borne disease risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartemink, Nienke; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Purse, Bethan V; Gilbert, Marius; Van Dyck, Hans

    2015-11-01

    Given the veterinary and public health impact of vector-borne diseases, there is a clear need to assess the suitability of landscapes for the emergence and spread of these diseases. Current approaches for predicting disease risks neglect key features of the landscape as components of the functional habitat of vectors or hosts, and hence of the pathogen. Empirical-statistical methods do not explicitly incorporate biological mechanisms, whereas current mechanistic models are rarely spatially explicit; both methods ignore the way animals use the landscape (i.e. movement ecology). We argue that applying a functional concept for habitat, i.e. the resource-based habitat concept (RBHC), can solve these issues. The RBHC offers a framework to identify systematically the different ecological resources that are necessary for the completion of the transmission cycle and to relate these resources to (combinations of) landscape features and other environmental factors. The potential of the RBHC as a framework for identifying suitable habitats for vector-borne pathogens is explored and illustrated with the case of bluetongue virus, a midge-transmitted virus affecting ruminants. The concept facilitates the study of functional habitats of the interacting species (vectors as well as hosts) and provides new insight into spatial and temporal variation in transmission opportunities and exposure that ultimately determine disease risks. It may help to identify knowledge gaps and control options arising from changes in the spatial configuration of key resources across the landscape. The RBHC framework may act as a bridge between existing mechanistic and statistical modelling approaches. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  1. Cancer risk in MLH1, MSH2 and MSH6 mutation carriers; different risk profiles may influence clinical management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramsoekh Dewkoemar

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Lynch syndrome (LS is associated with a high risk for colorectal cancer (CRC and extracolonic malignancies, such as endometrial carcinoma (EC. The risk is dependent of the affected mismatch repair gene. The aim of the present study was to calculate the cumulative risk of LS related cancers in proven MLH1, MSH2 and MSH6 mutation carriers. Methods The studypopulation consisted out of 67 proven LS families. Clinical information including mutation status and tumour diagnosis was collected. Cumulative risks were calculated and compared using Kaplan Meier survival analysis. Results MSH6 mutation carriers, both males and females had the lowest risk for developing CRC at age 70 years, 54% and 30% respectively and the age of onset was delayed by 3-5 years in males. With respect to endometrial carcinoma, female MSH6 mutation carriers had the highest risk at age 70 years (61% compared to MLH1 (25% and MSH2 (49%. Also, the age of EC onset was delayed by 5-10 years in comparison with MLH1 and MSH2. Conclusions Although the cumulative lifetime risk of LS related cancer is similar, MLH1, MSH2 and MSH6 mutations seem to cause distinguishable cancer risk profiles. Female MSH6 mutation carriers have a lower CRC risk and a higher risk for developing endometrial carcinoma. As a consequence, surveillance colonoscopy starting at age 30 years instead of 20-25 years is more suitable. Also, prophylactic hysterectomy may be more indicated in female MSH6 mutation carriers compared to MLH1 and MSH2 mutation carriers.

  2. Profiles of Student Perceptions of School Climate: Relations with Risk Behaviors and Academic Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Kathan; Konold, Timothy; Cornell, Dewey

    2016-06-01

    School climate has been linked to a variety of positive student outcomes, but there may be important within-school differences among students in their experiences of school climate. This study examined within-school heterogeneity among 47,631 high school student ratings of their school climate through multilevel latent class modeling. Student profiles across 323 schools were generated on the basis of multiple indicators of school climate: disciplinary structure, academic expectations, student willingness to seek help, respect for students, affective and cognitive engagement, prevalence of teasing and bullying, general victimization, bullying victimization, and bullying perpetration. Analyses identified four meaningfully different student profile types that were labeled positive climate, medium climate-low bullying, medium climate-high bullying, and negative climate. Contrasts among these profile types on external criteria revealed meaningful differences for race, grade-level, parent education level, educational aspirations, and frequency of risk behaviors. © Society for Community Research and Action 2016.

  3. Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

    2014-03-01

    There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

  4. Spatial pattern of heavy metals accumulation risk in urban soils of Beijing and its influencing factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Rui; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping; Peng, Chi

    2016-01-01

    Accumulations of heavy metals in urban soils are highly spatial heterogeneity and affected by multiple factors including soil properties, land use and pattern, population and climatic conditions. We studied accumulation risks of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in unban soils of Beijing and their influencing based on the regression tree analysis and a GIS-based overlay model. Result shows that Zinc causes the most extensive soil pollution and Cu result in the most acute soil pollution. The soil's organic carbon content and CEC and population growth are the most significant factors affecting heavy metal accumulation. Other influence factors in land use pattern, urban landscape, and wind speed also contributed, but less pronounced. The soils in areas with higher degree of urbanization and surrounded by intense vehicular traffics have higher accumulation risk of Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn. - Highlights: • Zn accumulations were the most extensive and Cu accumulations were the most acute. • Accumulations of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in urban soils were caused by different sets of influence factors. • Soil's organic carbon content and CEC and population growth were the most significant factors. • Accumulation risks were highly related with urbanization level and human activities. - A combined approach of employing geographical information systems and regression tree analyses identify the potential risks of accumulation Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in urban soils according to soil properties, urban land use patterns, urban landscape, demographics, and microclimatic conditions.

  5. Behavioral response to contamination risk information in a spatially explicit groundwater environment: Experimental evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jingyuan; Michael, Holly A.; Duke, Joshua M.; Messer, Kent D.; Suter, Jordan F.

    2014-08-01

    This paper assesses the effectiveness of aquifer monitoring information in achieving more sustainable use of a groundwater resource in the absence of management policy. Groundwater user behavior in the face of an irreversible contamination threat is studied by applying methods of experimental economics to scenarios that combine a physics-based, spatially explicit, numerical groundwater model with different representations of information about an aquifer and its risk of contamination. The results suggest that the threat of catastrophic contamination affects pumping decisions: pumping is significantly reduced in experiments where contamination is possible compared to those where pumping cost is the only factor discouraging groundwater use. The level of information about the state of the aquifer also affects extraction behavior. Pumping rates differ when information that synthesizes data on aquifer conditions (a "risk gauge") is provided, despite invariant underlying economic incentives, and this result does not depend on whether the risk information is location-specific or from a whole aquifer perspective. Interestingly, users increase pumping when the risk gauge signals good aquifer status compared to a no-gauge treatment. When the gauge suggests impending contamination, however, pumping declines significantly, resulting in a lower probability of contamination. The study suggests that providing relatively simple aquifer condition guidance derived from monitoring data can lead to more sustainable use of groundwater resources.

  6. Spatial variation in risk and consequence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans introduction in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Adams, Michael J.; White, C. LeAnn; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2016-01-01

    A newly identified fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), is responsible for mass mortality events and severe population declines in European salamanders. The eastern USA has the highest diversity of salamanders in the world and the introduction of this pathogen is likely to be devastating. Although data are inevitably limited for new pathogens, disease-risk assessments use best available data to inform management decisions. Using characteristics of Bsal ecology, spatial data on imports and pet trade establishments, and salamander species diversity, we identify high-risk areas with both a high likelihood of introduction and severe consequences for local salamanders. We predict that the Pacific coast, southern Appalachian Mountains and mid-Atlantic regions will have the highest relative risk from Bsal. Management of invasive pathogens becomes difficult once they are established in wildlife populations; therefore, import restrictions to limit pathogen introduction and early detection through surveillance of high-risk areas are priorities for preventing the next crisis for North American salamanders.

  7. Minimizing Collision Risk Between Migrating Raptors and Marine Wind Farms: Development of a Spatial Planning Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baisner, Anette Jægerfeldt; Andersen, Jonas Lembcke; Findsen, Anders; Yde Granath, Simon Wilhelm; Madsen, Karin Ølgaard; Desholm, Mark

    2010-11-01

    An increased focus on renewable energy has led to the planning and construction of marine wind farms in Europe. Since several terrestrial studies indicate that raptors are especially susceptible to wind turbine related mortality, a Spatial Planning Tool is needed so that wind farms can be sited, in an optimal way, to minimize risk of collisions. Here we use measurements of body mass, wingspan and wing area of eight European raptor species, to calculate their Best Glide Ratio (BGR). The BGR was used to construct a linear equation, which, by the use of initial take-off altitude, could be used to calculate a Theoretical Maximum Distance (TMD) from the coast, attained by these soaring-gliding raptor species. If the nearest turbine, of future marine wind farms, is placed farther away from the coast than the estimated TMD, the collision risk between the turbine blades and these gliding raptors will be minimized. The tool was demonstrated in a case study at the Rødsand II wind farm in Denmark. Data on raptor migration altitude were gathered by radar. From the TMD attained by registered soaring-gliding raptors in the area, we concluded that the Rødsand II wind farm is not sited ideally, from an ornithological point of view, as potentially all three registered species are at risk of gliding through the area swept by the turbine rotor blades, and thereby at risk of colliding with the wind turbines.

  8. Distance education course on spatial multi-hazard risk assessment, using Open Source software

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, C. J.; Frigerio, S.

    2009-04-01

    As part of the capacity building activities of the United Nations University - ITC School on Disaster Geo-Information Management (UNU-ITC DGIM) the International Institute for Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation (ITC) has developed a distance education course on the application of Geographic Information Systems for multi-hazard risk assessment. This course is designed for academic staff, as well as for professionals working in (non-) governmental organizations where knowledge of disaster risk management is essential. The course guides the participants through the entire process of risk assessment, on the basis of a case study of a city exposed to multiple hazards, in a developing country. The courses consists of eight modules, each with a guide book explaining the theoretical background, and guiding the participants through spatial data requirements for risk assessment, hazard assessment procedures, generation of elements at risk databases, vulnerability assessment, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods, risk evaluation and risk reduction. Linked to the theory is a large set of exercises, with exercise descriptions, answer sheets, demos and GIS data. The exercises deal with four different types of hazards: earthquakes, flooding, technological hazards, and landslides. One important consideration in designing the course is that people from developing countries should not be restricted in using it due to financial burdens for software acquisition. Therefore the aim was to use Open Source software as a basis. The GIS exercises are written for the ILWIS software. All exercises have also been integrated into a WebGIS, using the Open source software CartoWeb (based on GNU License). It is modular and customizable thanks to its object-oriented architecture and based on a hierarchical structure (to manage and organize every package of information of every step required in risk assessment). Different switches for every component of the risk assessment

  9. Micropatch-arrayed pads for non-invasive spatial and temporal profiling of topical drugs on skin surface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutkiewicz, Ewelina P; Chiu, Hsien-Yi; Urban, Pawel L

    2015-11-01

    Micropatch-arrayed pads (MAPAs) are presented as a facile and sensitive sampling method for spatial profiling of topical agents adsorbed on the surface of skin. MAPAs are 28 × 28 mm sized pieces of polytetrafluoroethylene containing plurality of cavities filled with agarose hydrogel. They are affixed onto skin for 10 min with the purpose to collect drugs applied topically. Polar compounds are absorbed by the hydrogel micropatches. The probes are subsequently scanned by an automated nanospray desorption electrospray ionization mass spectrometry system operated in the tapping dual-polarity mode. When the liquid junction gets into contact with every micropatch, polar compounds absorbed in the hydrogel matrix are desorbed and transferred to the ion source. A 3D-printed interface prevents evaporation of hydrogel micropatches assuring good reproducibility and sensitivity. MAPAs have been applied to follow dispersion of topical drugs applied to human skin in vivo and to porcine skin ex vivo, in the form of self-adhesive patches. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the drug dispersion process have been revealed using this non-invasive test. Differences between drug dispersion in vivo and ex vivo could be observed. We envision that MAPAs can be used to investigate spatiotemporal kinetics of various topical agents utilized in medical treatment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Spatial and temporal beam profile monitor with nanosecond resolution for CERN's Linac4 and Superconducting Proton Linac

    CERN Document Server

    Hori, M

    2008-01-01

    The Linac4, now being developed at CERN, will provide 160-MeV H- beams of high intensity . Before this beam can be injected into the CERN Proton Synchrotron Booster or future Superconducting Proton Linac for further acceleration, some sequences of 500-ps-long micro-bunches must be removed from it, using a beam chopper. These bunches, if left in the beam, would fall outside the longitudinal acceptance of the accelerators and make them radioactive. We developed a monitor to measure the time structure and spatial profile of this chopped beam, with respective resolutions and . Its large active area and dynamic range also allows investigations of beam halos. The ion beam first struck a carbon foil, and secondary electrons emerging from the foil were accelerated by a series of parallel grid electrodes. These electrons struck a phosphor screen, and the resulting image of the scintillation light was guided to a thermoelectrically cooled, charge-coupled device camera. The time resolution was attained by applying high-...

  11. The influence of spatial resolution on human health risk co-benefit estimates for global climate policy assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2015-03-15

    Assessment of the ability of climate policies to produce desired improvements in public health through co-benefits of air pollution reduction can consume resources in both time and research funds. These resources increase significantly as the spatial resolution of models increases. In addition, the level of spatial detail available in macroeconomic models at the heart of climate policy assessments is much lower than that available in traditional human health risk modeling. It is therefore important to determine whether increasing spatial resolution considerably affects risk-based decisions; which kinds of decisions might be affected; and under what conditions they will be affected. Human health risk co-benefits from carbon emissions reductions that bring about concurrent reductions in Particulate Matter (PM10) emissions is therefore examined here at four levels of spatial resolution (Uniform Nation, Uniform Region, Uniform County/city, Health Risk Assessment) in a case study of Taiwan as one of the geographic regions of a global macroeceonomic model, with results that are representative of small, industrialized nations within that global model. A metric of human health risk mortality (YOLL, years of life lost in life expectancy) is compared under assessments ranging from a "uniform simulation" in which there is no spatial resolution of changes in ambient air concentration under a policy to a "highly spatially resolved simulation" (called here Health Risk Assessment). PM10 is chosen in this study as the indicator of air pollution for which risks are assessed due to its significance as a co-benefit of carbon emissions reductions within climate mitigation policy. For the policy examined, the four estimates of mortality in the entirety of Taiwan are 747 YOLL, 834 YOLL, 984 YOLL and 916 YOLL, under Uniform Taiwan, Uniform Region, Uniform County and Health Risk Assessment respectively; or differences of 18%, 9%, 7% if the HRA methodology is taken as the baseline. While

  12. The relevance of the housing market for the banks’ risk profile in Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erjona REBI

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The housing market is an important sector for Albanian banks. Housing market financing dominates retail loans, and at the same time, houses represent a high share of the pledged collateral. This study aims to evaluate the role that the housing market plays in the Albanian banks’ risk-taking profile. The empirical work confirms the statistically significant difference in the risk profile between real estate and non-real estate banks. The dynamics of the housing market influences both types of banks, but the real estate banks are more sensitive to the housing market conditions. The negative relationship between the housing market developments with specialization of banks in real estate market reflects the high informality of the housing market and handicaps such as governmental interference, institutional shortcomings and flawed enforcement of property rights.

  13. Spatial Change as Drivers of Risk and Vulnerability in South Africa: Spatial trends in the 3 metropolitan cities of Gauteng

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Pieterse, Amy

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Urban spatial change trends manifest most noticeably in Gauteng. This not only confirms perceptions about metros as increasingly being the spaces where the future of South Africa's youth will be determined, but also once again rings the alarm bells...

  14. Beneficial effects of recreational football on the cardiovascular risk profile in untrained premenopausal women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krustrup, Peter; Hansen, P. R.; Randers, Morten Bredsgaard

    2010-01-01

    The present study examined the cardiovascular health effects of 16 weeks of recreational football training in untrained premenopausal women in comparison with continuous running training. Fifty healthy women were matched and randomized to a football (FG, n=25) or a running (RG, n=25) group......, regular recreational football training has significant favorable effects on the cardiovascular risk profile in untrained premenopausal women and is at the least as efficient as continuous running....

  15. Preeclampsia-Associated Hormonal Profiles and Reduced Breast Cancer Risk Among Older Mothers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-04-01

    Preeclampsia has been linked to reduced breast cancer risk, and this reduction may be especially marked among women who bear their first child later...in life. In this ongoing case-control study, we examine the hormonal profiles of older Colorado mothers with and without a history of preeclampsia in...premenopausal, and are free of serious chronic disease. Cases are 14 Denver area women who experienced preeclampsia in their first pregnancy; controls are 13

  16. PO-58 - Cardiovascular risk profile in survivors of adult cancer - results from the general population study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panova-Noeva, M; Hermanns, I M; Schulz, A; Laubert-Reh, D; Zeller, T; Blankenberg, S; Spronk, H M; Münzel, T; Lackner, K J; Ten Cate, H; Wild, P S

    2016-04-01

    The advancements in cancer treatment and detection of early cancer have resulted in steady increase of adult cancer survivors over the years. However, due to the long term toxic effects of chemotherapy and radiotherapy, the incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is increasing in survivors. Identifying risk factors and interventions to reduce the excess burden of CVD in this vulnerable population is urgently needed. To investigate the cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), inflammation and coagulation profile in cancer survivors from a large population-based study. Presence of CVRFs and laboratory markers have been compared in individuals with (n=1,359) and without (n=13,626) history of cancer. Standard laboratory profile, including blood glucose and lipid profile, has been evaluated in 15,010 individuals from the Gutenberg Health Study (GHS). Coagulation factors, D-dimer and von Willebrand factor (vWF) activity were available in N=4,993. The individuals with history of cancer were older compared to no history of cancer with mean age of 61,5years and 54.4years, respectively (pprofile showed cancer survivors with lower erythrocyte, platelet and white blood cell counts and higher C-reactive protein (CRP), glucose, HbA1c and triglycerides levels (pprofile in individuals with history of cancer from a well characterized population-representative adult sample. It gives evidence for higher prevalence of CVRFs, particularly diabetes in this vulnerable population. Markers of inflammation as CRP and fibrinogen and vWF activity were higher in cancer survivors independent of the cardiovascular risk profile. These results underline the increased risk of CVD and need for development of cardio-oncology programs offering cardiovascular prevention. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Parental prey selection affects risk-taking behaviour and spatial learning in avian offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Kathryn E; Ramsay, Scot L; Donaldson, Christine; Adam, Aileen

    2007-10-22

    Early nutrition shapes life history. Parents should, therefore, provide a diet that will optimize the nutrient intake of their offspring. In a number of passerines, there is an often observed, but unexplained, peak in spider provisioning during chick development. We show that the proportion of spiders in the diet of nestling blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus, varies significantly with the age of chicks but is unrelated to the timing of breeding or spider availability. Moreover, this parental prey selection supplies nestlings with high levels of taurine particularly at younger ages. This amino acid is known to be both vital and limiting for mammalian development and consequently found in high concentrations in placenta and milk. Based on the known roles of taurine in mammalian brain development and function, we then asked whether by supplying taurine-rich spiders, avian parents influence the stress responsiveness and cognitive function of their offspring. To test this, we provided wild blue tit nestlings with either a taurine supplement or control treatment once daily from the ages of 2-14 days. Then pairs of size- and sex-matched siblings were brought into captivity for behavioural testing. We found that juveniles that had received additional taurine as neonates took significantly greater risks when investigating novel objects than controls. Taurine birds were also more successful at a spatial learning task than controls. Additionally, those individuals that succeeded at a spatial learning task had shown intermediate levels of risk taking. Non-learners were generally very risk-averse controls. Early diet therefore has downstream impacts on behavioural characteristics that could affect fitness via foraging and competitive performance. Fine-scale prey selection is a mechanism by which parents can manipulate the behavioural phenotype of offspring.

  18. Identifying measures to balance the risk profile of the Tihange 2 NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Eer, A.M.; Monniez, J.J.

    2001-01-01

    In Belgium, each Nuclear Power Plant is subject to a periodic safety reassessment. In this context, it was found to be desirable to perform a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in support of the ten yearly back-fitting process. The Tihange 2 NPP is a 3-loop PWR having a thermal capacity of 2905 MW. Analysis of the plant's risk profile shows that implementing feasible measures for improvement of the shutdown risk, would be beneficial. This is because a configuration leading to significant risk, namely cold pressurization when the residual heat removal system is lost during reduced primary inventory, thus can be avoided. As a result the risk between reactor shutdown and power operation will be balanced. The presentation describes the lessons learnt regarding the Tihange 2 shutdown PSA model and the expected benefits following implementation of one of the proposed measures. (author)

  19. Risk profile of patients developing nonunion of the clavicle and outcome of treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ban, Ilija; Troelsen, Anders

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: The most common complication following treatment of a clavicle fracture is nonunion. Most nonunions are symptomatic and treatment is mostly operative. The aim of this study was to describe risk profiles of patients developing nonunion and what outcome is observed following operative...... of functionality and patient reported satisfaction and remission of symptoms was done a minimum of six months post-operatively by mail. Response rate was 60%. RESULTS: The overall nonunion rate was 7.5%. Nine nonunions were initially treated operatively. Risk factors associated with nonunion of our series...

  20. Risk Assessment of Girls : Are There Any Sex Differences in Risk Factors for Re-offending and in Risk Profiles?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Put, Claudia E.; Dekovic, Maja; Hoeve, Machteld; Stams, Geert Jan J. M.; van der Laan, Peter H.; Langewouters, Femke E. M.

    2014-01-01

    The aims of this study were (a) to investigate sex differences in risk factors for re-offending and (b) to provide a risk assessment model for girls. The data of 1,396 adolescents who committed a criminal offense were examined. Both generic and sex-specific risk factors for re-offending were found.

  1. Risk assessment of girls: are there any sex differences in risk factors for reoffending and in risk profiles?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Put, C.E.; Deković, M.; Hoeve, M.; Stams, G.J.J.M.; van der Laan, P.H.; Langewouters, F.E.M.

    2014-01-01

    The aims of this study were (a) to investigate sex differences in risk factors for re-offending and (b) to provide a risk assessment model for girls. The data of 1,396 adolescents who committed a criminal offense were examined. Both generic and sex-specific risk factors for re-offending were found.

  2. Sonographic biophysical profile in detection of foetal hypoxia in 100 cases of suspected high risk pregnancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullah, N.; Khan, A.R.; Usman, M.

    2010-01-01

    Background: The foetus has become increasingly accessible and visible as a patient over the last two decades. Ultrasound imaging has broadened the scope of foetal assessment. Dynamic real time B-Mode ultrasound is used to monitor cluster of biophysical variables, both dynamic and static collectively termed as biophysical profile. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of sonographic biophysical profile score on perinatal outcome in terms of mortality and morbidity. Methods: This descriptive study was carried on 100 randomly select ed high risk pregnant patients in Radiology Department PGMI, Government Lady Reading Hospital, Peshawar from December 2007 to June 2008. Manning biophysical profile including non-stress was employed for foetal screening, using Toshiba ultrasound machine model Nemio SSA-550A and 7.5 MHZ probe. Results: Out of 100 cases 79 (79%) had a normal biophysical profile in the last scan of 10/10 and had a normal perinatal outcome with 5 minutes Apgar score >7/10. In 13 (13%) cases Apgar score at 5 minute was < 7/10 and babies were shifted to nursery. There were 2 (2%) false positive cases that showed abnormal biophysical profile scores of 6/10 but babies were born with an Apgar score of 8/10 at 5 minutes. There were 2 (2%) neonatal deaths in this study group. The sensitivity of biophysical profile was 79.1%, specificity 92.9%. Predictive value for a positive test was 98.55%; predictive value for a negative test was 41.93%. Conclusion: Biophysical profile is highly accurate and reliable test of diagnosing foetal hypoxia. (author)

  3. Spatial distribution of the risk of dengue fever in southeast Brazil, 2006-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nucci Luciana B

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many factors have been associated with circulation of the dengue fever virus and vector, although the dynamics of transmission are not yet fully understood. The aim of this work is to estimate the spatial distribution of the risk of dengue fever in an area of continuous dengue occurrence. Methods This is a spatial population-based case-control study that analyzed 538 cases and 727 controls in one district of the municipality of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil, from 2006-2007, considering socio-demographic, ecological, case severity, and household infestation variables. Information was collected by in-home interviews and inspection of living conditions in and around the homes studied. Cases were classified as mild or severe according to clinical data, and they were compared with controls through a multinomial logistic model. A generalized additive model was used in order to include space in a non-parametric fashion with cubic smoothing splines. Results Variables associated with increased incidence of all dengue cases in the multiple binomial regression model were: higher larval density (odds ratio (OR = 2.3 (95%CI: 2.0-2.7, reports of mosquito bites during the day (OR = 1.8 (95%CI: 1.4-2.4, the practice of water storage at home (OR = 2.5 (95%CI: 1.4, 4.3, low frequency of garbage collection (OR = 2.6 (95%CI: 1.6-4.5 and lack of basic sanitation (OR = 2.9 (95%CI: 1.8-4.9. Staying at home during the day was protective against the disease (OR = 0.5 (95%CI: 0.3-0.6. When cases were analyzed by categories (mild and severe in the multinomial model, age and number of breeding sites more than 10 were significant only for the occurrence of severe cases (OR = 0.97, (95%CI: 0.96-0.99 and OR = 2.1 (95%CI: 1.2-3.5, respectively. Spatial distribution of risks of mild and severe dengue fever differed from each other in the 2006/2007 epidemic, in the study area. Conclusions Age and presence of more than 10 breeding sites were significant only

  4. Elderly fall risk prediction based on a physiological profile approach using artificial neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razmara, Jafar; Zaboli, Mohammad Hassan; Hassankhani, Hadi

    2016-11-01

    Falls play a critical role in older people's life as it is an important source of morbidity and mortality in elders. In this article, elders fall risk is predicted based on a physiological profile approach using a multilayer neural network with back-propagation learning algorithm. The personal physiological profile of 200 elders was collected through a questionnaire and used as the experimental data for learning and testing the neural network. The profile contains a series of simple factors putting elders at risk for falls such as vision abilities, muscle forces, and some other daily activities and grouped into two sets: psychological factors and public factors. The experimental data were investigated to select factors with high impact using principal component analysis. The experimental results show an accuracy of ≈90 percent and ≈87.5 percent for fall prediction among the psychological and public factors, respectively. Furthermore, combining these two datasets yield an accuracy of ≈91 percent that is better than the accuracy of single datasets. The proposed method suggests a set of valid and reliable measurements that can be employed in a range of health care systems and physical therapy to distinguish people who are at risk for falls.

  5. NEW CONCEPTS AND TEST METHODS OF CURVE PROFILE AREA DENSITY IN SURFACE: ESTIMATION OF AREAL DENSITY ON CURVED SPATIAL SURFACE

    OpenAIRE

    Hong Shen

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of curve profile, curve intercept, curve intercept density, curve profile area density, intersection density in containing intersection (or intersection density relied on intersection reference), curve profile intersection density in surface (or curve intercept intersection density relied on intersection of containing curve), and curve profile area density in surface (AS) were defined. AS expressed the amount of curve profile area of Y phase in the unit containing surface area, S...

  6. Cannabis use in children with individualized risk profiles: Predicting the effect of universal prevention intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miovský, Michal; Vonkova, Hana; Čablová, Lenka; Gabrhelík, Roman

    2015-11-01

    To study the effect of a universal prevention intervention targeting cannabis use in individual children with different risk profiles. A school-based randomized controlled prevention trial was conducted over a period of 33 months (n=1874 sixth-graders, baseline mean age 11.82). We used a two-level random intercept logistic model for panel data to predict the probabilities of cannabis use for each child. Specifically, we used eight risk/protective factors to characterize each child and then predicted two probabilities of cannabis use for each child if the child had the intervention or not. Using the two probabilities, we calculated the absolute and relative effect of the intervention for each child. According to the two probabilities, we also divided the sample into a low-risk group (the quarter of the children with the lowest probabilities), a moderate-risk group, and a high-risk group (the quarter of the children with the highest probabilities) and showed the average effect of the intervention on these groups. The differences between the intervention group and the control group were statistically significant in each risk group. The average predicted probabilities of cannabis use for a child from the low-risk group were 4.3% if the child had the intervention and 6.53% if no intervention was provided. The corresponding probabilities for a child from the moderate-risk group were 10.91% and 15.34% and for a child from the high-risk group 25.51% and 32.61%. School grades, thoughts of hurting oneself, and breaking the rules were the three most important factors distinguishing high-risk and low-risk children. We predicted the effect of the intervention on individual children, characterized by their risk/protective factors. The predicted absolute effect and relative effect of any intervention for any selected risk/protective profile of a given child may be utilized in both prevention practice and research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Coagulation Profile as a Risk Factor for 30-day Morbidity Following Cervical Laminectomy and Fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronheim, Rachel S; Oermann, Eric K; Cho, Samuel K; Caridi, John M

    2018-02-15

    Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. The aim of this study was to determine the ability of abnormal coagulation profile to predict adverse events following posterior cervical laminectomy and fusion (PCLF). PCLF is an increasingly common procedure used to treat a variety of traumatic and degenerative spinal conditions. Abnormal coagulation profile is associated with postoperative adverse events, including blood transfusion. There is a paucity of literature that specifically addresses the relationship between coagulation profile and complications following PCLF. ACS-NSQIP was utilized to identify patients undergoing PCLF between 2006 and 2013. A total of 3546 patients met inclusion criteria. Multivariate analysis was utilized to identify associations between abnormal coagulation profile and postoperative complications. Membership in the low-platelet cohort was an independent risk factor for myocardial infarction (Odds Ratio (OR) = 5.4 [1.0, 29.1], P = 0.049) and bleeding transfusion (OR = 2.0 [1.2, 3.4], P = 0.011). Membership in the high international normalized ratio group was an independent risk factor for pneumonia (OR = 6.3 [2.5, 16.1], P 48 hours (OR = 6.5 [2.3, 18.4], P 48 hours (OR = 4.8 [1.9, 12.4], P = 0.001), cerebrovascular accident/stroke with neurological deficit (OR = 24.8 [2.9, 210.6], P = 0.003), bleeding transfusion (OR = 2.1 [1.1, 4.1], P = 0.032), reoperation (OR = 3.6 [1.4, 9.3], P = 0.008), and sepsis (OR = 3.4 [1.1, 10.4], P = 0.031). This is the first large study to document abnormal coagulation profile as an independent predictor of outcomes following PCLF. Abnormal coagulation profile represents a predictor of complications that can be medically mitigated, and is therefore a valuable parameter to assess preoperatively. Coagulation profile should continue to play a role in targeting patients for risk stratification, preoperative optimization, and

  8. Your View or Mine: Spatially Quantifying CO2 Storage Risk from Various Stakeholder Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bielicki, J. M.; Pollak, M.; Wilson, E.; Elliot, T. R.; Guo, B.; Nogues, J. P.; Peters, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    CO2 capture and storage involves injecting captured CO2 into geologic formations, such as deep saline aquifers. This injected CO2 is to be "stored" within the rock matrix for hundreds to thousands of years, but injected CO2, or the brine it displaces, may leak from the target reservoir. Such leakage could interfere with other subsurface activities-water production, energy production, energy storage, and waste disposal-or migrate to the surface. Each of these interferences will incur multiple costs to a variety of stakeholders. Even if injected or displaced fluids do not interfere with other subsurface activities or make their way to the surface, costs will be incurred to find and fix the leak. Consequently, the suitability of a site for CO2 storage must therefore include an assessment of the risk of leakage and interference with various other activities within a three-dimensional proximity of where CO2 is being injected. We present a spatial analysis of leakage and interference risk associated with injecting CO2 into a portion of the Mount Simon sandstone in the Michigan Basin. Risk is the probability of an outcome multiplied by the impact of that outcome (Ro=po*Io). An outcome is the result of the leakage (e.g., interference with oil production), and the impact is the cost associated with the outcome. Each outcome has costs that will vary by stakeholder. Our analysis presents CO2 storage risk for multiple outcomes in a spatially explicit manner that varies by stakeholder. We use the ELSA semi-analytical model for estimating CO2 and brine leakage from aquifers to determine plume and pressure front radii, and CO2 and brine leakage probabilities for the Mount Simon sandstone and multiple units above it. Results of ELSA simulations are incorporated into RISCS: the Risk Interference Subsurface CO2 Storage model. RISCS uses three-dimensional data on subsurface geology and the locations of wells and boreholes to spatially estimate risks associated with CO2 leakage from

  9. Spatial-temporal detection of risk factors for bacillary dysentery in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengdong Xu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bacillary dysentery is the third leading notifiable disease and remains a major public health concern in China. The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban region is the biggest urban agglomeration in northern China, and it is one of the areas in the country that is most heavily infected with bacillary dysentery. The objective of the study was to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern and to determine any contributory risk factors on the bacillary dysentery. Methods Bacillary dysentery case data from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012 in Beijing–Tianjin– Hebei were employed. GeoDetector method was used to determine the impact of potential risk factors, and to identify regions and seasons at high risk of the disease. Results There were 36,472 cases of bacillary dysentery in 2012 in the study region. The incidence of bacillary dysentery varies widely amongst different age groups; the higher incidence of bacillary dysentery mainly occurs in the population under the age of five. Bacillary dysentery presents apparent seasonal variance, with the highest incidence occurring from June to September. In terms of the potential meteorological risk factors, mean temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, mean wind speed and sunshine hours explain the time variant of bacillary dysentery at 83%, 31%, 25%, 17% and 13%, respectively. The interactive effect between temperature and humidity has an explanatory power of 87%, indicating that a hot and humid environment is more likely to lead to the occurrence of bacillary dysentery. Socio-economic factors affect the spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery. The top four factors are age group, per capita GDP, population density and rural population proportion, and their determinant powers are 61%, 27%, 25% and 21%, respectively. The interactive effect between age group and the other factors accounts for more than 60% of bacillary dysentery transmission. Conclusions Bacillary dysentery poses a

  10. Cardiovascular risk profile in shift workers : cardiac control, biological and lifestyle risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amelsvoort, van L.G.P.M.

    2000-01-01

    Background: Evidence available so far indicates a 40% excess cardiovascular disease risk among shift workers. As, in the Netherlands alone, about one million people are working in shifts, this might have a considerable public health impact. Factors responsible

  11. A framework for profiling the characteristics of risk governance in diverse European natural hazard contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, G.; Tweed, F.

    2012-04-01

    Risks are always managed within a broader context of relationships between governments, citizens, civil society and private business; these relationships shift and evolve over time with changing political currents and economic conditions. In Europe over the past 20 years or so, there has been a move away from government towards a broader practice of 'governance', a shift that is as relevant to the handling of natural hazards as it is to other societal concerns such as housing, economic regeneration or transport. Key characteristics of this change include the emergence of multi-level governance processes and the 'hollowing out' of the nation state; moves away from the exercise of centralised authority towards the involvement and collaboration of a multiplicity of actors specific to each policy area; the creation of new forms of authority and control; and changing distributions of responsibilities between the state and other actors. However, the extent to which these shifts have taken place across the full diversity of European national contexts and can be observed specifically in relation to the governance of natural hazards is open to analysis and debate. In this paper, we propose a framework for profiling risk governance approaches in relation to key characteristics identified in both the general governance literature and in more specific work on risk governance. This framework can be flexibly applied in relation to a specific hazard and national/regional context and enables qualitative profiling across a spectrum of nine governance characteristics. Past trends and likely future changes can also be represented. We discuss the formulation of this framework as well as illustrating how it can be used in a process of discussion and debate about risk governance issues. We provide examples of the ways in which the profiling approach can enable comparison between risk governance contexts and approaches, and how it can be used in a variety of potential settings.

  12. Shrinking risk profiles after deworming of children in Port Elizabeth, South Africa, with special reference to Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Ivan; Gall, Stefanie; Beyleveld, Lindsey; Gerber, Markus; Pühse, Uwe; Du Randt, Rosa; Steinmann, Peter; Zondie, Leyli; Walter, Cheryl; Utzinger, Jürg

    2017-11-27

    Risk maps facilitate discussion among different stakeholders and provide a tool for spatial targeting of health interventions. We present maps documenting shrinking risk profiles after deworming with respect to soil-transmitted helminthiasis among schoolchildren from disadvantaged neighbourhoods in Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Children were examined for soil-transmitted helminth infections using duplicate Kato-Katz thick smears in March 2015, October 2015 and May 2016, and subsequently treated with albendazole after each survey. The mean infection intensities for Ascaris lumbricoides were 9,554 eggs per gram of stool (EPG) in March 2015, 4,317 EPG in October 2015 and 1,684 EPG in March 2016. The corresponding figures for Trichuris trichiura were 664 EPG, 331 EPG and 87 EPG. Repeated deworming shrank the risk of soil-transmitted helminthiasis, but should be complemented by other public health measures.

  13. Spatial distribution and risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments of Shuangtaizi estuary, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Chen; Song, Chengwen; Yin, Yanyan; Sun, Menghan; Tao, Ping; Shao, Mihua

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Five heavy metals are analyzed in the sediments from Shuangtaizi estuary. • Particle size of the sediment effects the concentration of heavy metals. • Pb, Cu, Zn and Hg pose low ecological risks in the Shuangtaizi estuary. • Heavy metal pollution in Shuangtaizi estuary is mainly dominated by Cd. - Abstract: In order to evaluate the spatial distribution and potential ecological risk of Pb, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Hg, the surface sediments were collected from 18 sites in the Shuangtaizi estuary. The concentrations of Pb, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Hg were analyzed by atomic absorption spectrophotometry and atomic fluorescence spectrometry after digestion. The particle sizes of the sediments were analyzed using a laser diffraction particle size analyzer. The results show that the heavy metal contents in the sediments are observed in the following order: Zn (18.25–126.75 mg/kg) > Pb (4.38–9.65 mg/kg) > Cu (1.80–17.68 mg/kg) > Cd (0.241–0.764 mg/kg) > Hg (0.007–0.021 mg/kg). In comparison with the concentrations of heavy metals in other regions, the concentrations of Pb, Cu, and Zn in the Shuangtaizi estuary are generally low, and the Cd concentrations are close to those reported in other regions. Both the potential ecological risk index and the geoaccumulation index reveal that the heavy metal pollution in Shuangtaizi estuary is mainly dominated by Cd

  14. Spatial model for risk prediction and sub-national prioritization to aid poliovirus eradication in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Laina D; Safdar, Rana M; Ahmed, Jamal; Mahamud, Abdirahman; Khan, M Muzaffar; Gerber, Sue; O'Leary, Aiden; Ryan, Mike; Salet, Frank; Kroiss, Steve J; Lyons, Hil; Upfill-Brown, Alexander; Chabot-Couture, Guillaume

    2017-10-11

    Pakistan is one of only three countries where poliovirus circulation remains endemic. For the Pakistan Polio Eradication Program, identifying high risk districts is essential to target interventions and allocate limited resources. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework we developed a spatial Poisson hurdle model to jointly model the probability of one or more paralytic polio cases, and the number of cases that would be detected in the event of an outbreak. Rates of underimmunization, routine immunization, and population immunity, as well as seasonality and a history of cases were used to project future risk of cases. The expected number of cases in each district in a 6-month period was predicted using indicators from the previous 6-months and the estimated coefficients from the model. The model achieves an average of 90% predictive accuracy as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, for the past 3 years of cases. The risk of poliovirus has decreased dramatically in many of the key reservoir areas in Pakistan. The results of this model have been used to prioritize sub-national areas in Pakistan to receive additional immunization activities, additional monitoring, or other special interventions.

  15. Importance of spatial factors and temporal scales in environmental risk assessment in marine ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grebenkov, A.; Linkov, I.; Andrizhievski, A.; Lukashevich, A.; Trifonov, A.

    2004-01-01

    Coastal areas adjacent to the Black Sea, particularly in Crimea, have suffered from inappropriate human activities, poorly regulated industry and former naval bases. Industrial and municipal wastewater pollutants draining into the three major European rivers (the Danube, Dniestr, and Dnieper) and dumping in the open sea result in an enormous increase in contamination level of ecosystems of the Black Sea. In spite of this, Crimea and its adjacent waters is still a globally important center of biological diversity, with an enormous and exciting range of habitats within a comparatively small area. The problem now is to evaluate economically feasible remediation and ecologically sustainable cleanup/reuse alternatives for the most contaminated sites of this area. One of the principal methodological components of such evaluation is a risk-based decision protocol that provides support in analysis of ecological value and reuse options for a chosen site. This paper presents the results of development of a spatially explicit risk assessment technique to be implemented as a part of the decision-making process and gives an example of its application to contaminated marine ecosystems. The model is suggested that takes into account several principal assumptions: (i) spatial heterogeneity of contamination of forage is known and mapped within known location of receptor's habitat, and (ii) the receptor movement and timescale are determined by location, volume and attractiveness of local habitat and forage resources. This implies two models: Spatially Explicit Exposure Assessment Model that calculates internal exposure resulting from ingestion of contaminated feeds, and Probabilistic Receptor Migration Model that generates motivation of behaviour of a receptor while feeding. In the first model, time-dependent accumulation of contamination in receptor tissue is defined by the differential balance equation that takes into account forage consumption rate and excretion rate. In the

  16. The diabetic foot risks profile in Selebi Phikwe Government Hospital, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephane Tshitenge

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The present study aimed: (1 to evaluate the proportion of each diabetic foot (DF risk category, according to the International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot (IWGDF consensus, in patients attending the diabetic clinic in Selebi Phikwe Government Hospital (SPGH and (2 to examine some of the factors that may be associated with the progression to higher risk categories such as anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c and lipid profile.Methods: A retrospective, cross sectional chart review of patients who had attended the diabetic clinic in SPGH from January 2013 to December 2013 was performed. Patients were included if they had undergone a foot examination. Patients with amputation due to accident were excluded. The DF risk category was assessed by determining the proportion of patients in each of four risk categories, as described by the IWGDF consensus.Results: The study encompassed 144 records from patients reviewed for foot examination from January to December 2013. Patients’ ages were between 16 and 85 years, 46 (40% were male and 98 (60% were female. The majority (122, [85%] of patients were in DF risk category 0, whilst a limited number of patients were classified in risk category 1 (10, [6.9%], risk category 2 (7, [4.9%] and risk category 3 (5, [3.5%]. Most of the patients had the type 2 diabetes mellitus (139, [97%; 95% CI 92% − 99%]. Patients’ ages were associated with the progressively higher DF risk categories. The adjusted odd ratio was 1.1 (95% CI 1.03−1.14; p = 0.004.Conclusion: The present study revealed that about 15% of patients attending the SPGH diabetic clinic were categorised in higher risk groups for diabetic foot; patients’ ages were linked to the higher DF risk categories.

  17. Geographic profiling to assess the risk of rare plant poaching in natural areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, J.A.; Van Manen, F.T.; Thatcher, C.A.

    2011-01-01

    We demonstrate the use of an expert-assisted spatial model to examine geographic factors influencing the poaching risk of a rare plant (American ginseng, Panax quinquefolius L.) in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Following principles of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we identified a hierarchy of 11 geographic factors deemed important to poaching risk and requested law enforcement personnel of the National Park Service to rank those factors in a series of pair-wise comparisons. We used those comparisons to determine statistical weightings of each factor and combined them into a spatial model predicting poaching risk. We tested the model using 69 locations of previous poaching incidents recorded by law enforcement personnel. These locations occurred more frequently in areas predicted by the model to have a higher risk of poaching than random locations. The results of our study can be used to evaluate resource protection strategies and to target law enforcement activities. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA) 2011.

  18. Coagulation Profile as a Risk Factor for 30-Day Morbidity and Mortality Following Posterior Lumbar Fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronheim, Rachel S; Oermann, Eric K; Cho, Samuel K; Caridi, John M

    2017-06-15

    A retrospective cohort study. The aim of this study was to identify associations between abnormal coagulation profile and postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing posterior lumbar fusion (PLF). The literature suggests that abnormal coagulation profile is associated with postoperative complications, notably the need for blood transfusion. However, there is little research that directly addresses the influence of coagulation profile on postoperative complications following PLF. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (ACS-NSQIP) was utilized to identify patients undergoing PLF between 2006 and 2013. Nine thousand two hundred ninety-five patients met inclusion criteria. Multivariate analysis was utilized to identify associations between abnormal coagulation profile and postoperative complications. Low platelet count was an independent risk factor for organ space surgical site infections (SSIs) [odds ratio (OR) = 6.0, P 48 hours (OR = 4.5, P = 0.002), Acute renal failure (OR = 5.8, P = 0.007), transfusion (OR = 1.6, P risk factor for ventilation >48 hours (OR = 5.6, P = 0.002), cerebrovascular accident (CVA)/stroke with neurological deficit (OR = 5.1, P = 0.011), cardiac arrest (OR = 5.4, P = 0.030), transfusion (OR = 1.5, P = 0.020), and death (OR = 4.5, P = 0.050). High International Normalized Ration (INR) was an independent risk factor for pneumonia (OR = 8.7, P = 0.001), pulmonary embolism (OR = 5.6, P = 0.021), deep venous thrombosis/Thrombophlebitis (OR = 4.8, P = 0.011), septic shock (OR = 8.4, P = 0.048), and death (OR = 9.8, P = 0.034). Bleeding disorder was an independent risk factor for organ space SSI (OR = 5.4, P = 0.01), pneumonia (OR = 3.0, P = 0.023), and sepsis (OR = 4.4, P profile was an independent predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients

  19. Frequency Characteristics of Surface Wave Generated by Single-Line Pulsed Laser Beam with Two Kinds of Spatial Energy Profile Models: Gaussian and Square-Like

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Ho Geon; Kim, Myung Hwan; Choi, Sung Ho; Kim, Chung Seok; Jhang, Kyung Young [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-08-15

    Using a single-line pulsed laser beam is well known as a useful noncontact method to generate a directional surface acoustic wave. In this method, different laser beam energy profiles produce different waveforms and frequency characteristics. In this paper, we considered two typical kinds of laser beam energy profiles, Gaussian and square-like, to find out a difference in the frequency characteristics. To achieve this, mathematical models were proposed first for Gaussian laser beam profile and square-like respectively, both of which depended on the laser beam width. To verify the theoretical models, experimental setups with a cylindrical lens and a line-slit mask were respectively designed to produce a line laser beam with Gaussian spatial energy profile and square-like. The frequency responses of the theoretical models showed good agreement with experimental results in terms of the existence of harmonic frequency components and the shift of the first peak frequencies to low.

  20. The profile of high-risk pregnancy in El-Mansoura city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yassin, Shadia A T; Gamal El-Deen, Amany A; Emam, Mohamed A; Omer, Abeer K F

    2005-01-01

    Proper screening techniques should be used for all pregnant women attending antenatal clinics to pick up the factors that qualify the pregnant women for a risky pregnancy. High-risk pregnancy identification is a challenging work. This study aimed to describe the profile of high-risk pregnancy in El-Mansoura city. The study was conducted on 750 pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in three hospitals in El-Mansoura city, where 250 women were chosen from each setting. A modified version of Morrison and Olsen (1979) high risk scoring inventory tool was used to collect the socioeconomic, biological, medical, reproductive and current pregnancy risk factors in the study sample. It also assessed the risk level whether low, moderate or high. The results revealed that among all women, 63.8% of the sample were at a high-risk, while 25.0 % of them were at a moderate-risk and only 11.2% were at low-risk. About 70.0% of the high-risk pregnant women were in their third trimester followed by 23.0% in the second trimester and only 7.1% were in the first trimester. About 5.9% of the women were at a high-risk because of polluted housing condition, 1.9% because of heart diseases Class capital I, Ukrainian or II, 5.2% because of diabetes mellitus, 4.2% because of hypertension and 14.9% because of previous cesarean section. On the other hand 14.8% women were at moderate risk because of their illiteracy, 29.2% of them for being short, 14.7%, 10.6% of them because of being teenagers or over 35 years of age, respectively, 12.6% of because they had a history of gestational diabetes and 32.8%of them because of anemia, 23.2% because urinary tract infection, 16.9% because of albuminuria, and 12.0% because of glucoseuria. Finally identifying the profile of high -risk pregnancy women is mandatory.

  1. A high resolution spatial population database of Somalia for disease risk mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linard, Catherine; Alegana, Victor A; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Tatem, Andrew J

    2010-09-14

    Millions of Somali have been deprived of basic health services due to the unstable political situation of their country. Attempts are being made to reconstruct the health sector, in particular to estimate the extent of infectious disease burden. However, any approach that requires the use of modelled disease rates requires reasonable information on population distribution. In a low-income country such as Somalia, population data are lacking, are of poor quality, or become outdated rapidly. Modelling methods are therefore needed for the production of contemporary and spatially detailed population data. Here land cover information derived from satellite imagery and existing settlement point datasets were used for the spatial reallocation of populations within census units. We used simple and semi-automated methods that can be implemented with free image processing software to produce an easily updatable gridded population dataset at 100 × 100 meters spatial resolution. The 2010 population dataset was matched to administrative population totals projected by the UN. Comparison tests between the new dataset and existing population datasets revealed important differences in population size distributions, and in population at risk of malaria estimates. These differences are particularly important in more densely populated areas and strongly depend on the settlement data used in the modelling approach. The results show that it is possible to produce detailed, contemporary and easily updatable settlement and population distribution datasets of Somalia using existing data. The 2010 population dataset produced is freely available as a product of the AfriPop Project and can be downloaded from: http://www.afripop.org.

  2. Fall risk in Chinese community-dwelling older adults: A physiological profile assessment study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siong, Kar-Ho; Kwan, Marcella Mun-San; Lord, Stephen R; Lam, Andrew Kwok-Cheung; Tsang, William Wai-Nam; Cheong, Allen Ming-Yan

    2016-02-01

    The short-form Physiological Profile Assessment (PPA) is increasingly used in clinical practice for assessing fall risk in older people. However, a normative database is only available for Caucasian populations. The purpose of the present study was to develop a normative database for Hong Kong Chinese older people and examine the fall risk profile of this population. A total of 622 participants aged 60-95 years were recruited. Participants underwent the PPA (containing tests of contrast sensitivity, proprioception, quadriceps strength, reaction time and sway), and composite fall risk scores were computed. Participants were then followed up for falls for 1 year. Quadriceps strength and lower limb proprioception scores were comparable with those reported for Caucasian populations. However, contrast sensitivity, simple reaction time and postural sway scores were relatively poor. The average composite fall risk score was 1.7 ± 1.5, showing a "moderate" fall risk when compared with the Caucasian norms. Despite the relatively poor physical performances and moderately high fall risk scores, the incidence of one plus falls in the 1-year follow-up period was just 16.4%, with just 2.6% reporting two plus falls. The area under the curve for composite fall risk scores in discriminating fallers from non-fallers was 0.53 (95% CI 0.45-0.60). Despite poorer performance in PPA tests, the incidence of prospective falls in a Hong Kong Chinese population was low. In consequence, the PPA could not discriminate well between fallers and non-fallers. The present study provided normality data for short-form PPA measures for older Chinese people as a reference for further studies. © 2015 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  3. Assessing Wildfire Risk in Cultural Heritage Properties Using High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Satellite Imagery and Spatially Explicit Fire Simulations: The Case of Holy Mount Athos, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgos Mallinis

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Fire management implications and the design of conservation strategies on fire prone landscapes within the UNESCO World Heritage Properties require the application of wildfire risk assessment at landscape level. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial variation of wildfire risk on Holy Mount Athos in Greece. Mt. Athos includes 20 monasteries and other structures that are threatened by increasing frequency of wildfires. Site-specific fuel models were created by measuring in the field several fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, while the spatial extent of the fuel types was determined using a synergy of high-resolution imagery and high temporal information from medium spatial resolution imagery classified through object-based analysis and a machine learning classifier. The Minimum Travel Time (MTT algorithm, as it is embedded in FlamMap software, was applied in order to evaluate Burn Probability (BP, Conditional Flame Length (CFL, Fire Size (FS, and Source-Sink Ratio (SSR. The results revealed low burn probabilities for the monasteries; however, nine out of the 20 monasteries have high fire potential in terms of fire intensity, which means that if an ignition occurs, an intense fire is expected. The outputs of this study may be used for decision-making for short-term predictions of wildfire risk at an operational level, contributing to fire suppression and management of UNESCO World Heritage Properties.

  4. Vulnerability assessments, identity and spatial scale challenges in disaster-risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward R. Carr

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Current approaches to vulnerability assessment for disaster-risk reduction (DRR commonly apply generalised, a priori determinants of vulnerability to particular hazards in particular places. Although they may allow for policy-level legibility at high levels of spatial scale, these approaches suffer from attribution problems that become more acute as the level of analysis is localised and the population under investigation experiences greater vulnerability. In this article, we locate the source of this problem in a spatial scale mismatch between the essentialist framings of identity behind these generalised determinants of vulnerability and the intersectional, situational character of identity in the places where DRR interventions are designed and implemented. Using the Livelihoods as Intimate Government (LIG approach to identify and understand different vulnerabilities to flooding in a community in southern Zambia, we empirically demonstrate how essentialist framings of identity produce this mismatch. Further, we illustrate a means of operationalising intersectional, situational framings of identity to achieve greater and more productive understandings of hazard vulnerability than available through the application of general determinants of vulnerability to specific places and cases.

  5. Spatial risk for gender-specific adult mortality in an area of southern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ochiai Rion

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although economic reforms have brought significant benefits, including improved health care to many Chinese people, accessibility to improved care has not been distributed evenly throughout Chinese society. Also, the effects of the uneven distribution of improved healthcare are not clearly understood. Evidence suggests that mortality is an indicator for evaluating accessibility to improved health care services. We constructed spatially smoothed risk maps for gender-specific adult mortality in an area of southern China comprising both urban and rural areas and identified ecological factors of gender-specific mortality across societies. Results The study analyzed the data of the Hechi Prefecture in southern in China. An average of 124,204 people lived in the area during the study period (2002–2004. Individual level data for 2002–2004 were grouped using identical rectangular cells (regular lattice of 0.25 km2. Poisson regression was fitted to the group level data to identify gender-specific ecological factors of adult (ages 15– Conclusion We found a disparity in mortality rates between rural and urban areas in the study area in southern China, especially for adult men. There were also differences in mortality rates between poorer and wealthy populations in both rural and urban areas, which may in part reflect differences in health care quality. Spatial influences upon adult male versus adult female mortality difference underscore the need for more research on gender-related influences on adult mortality in China.

  6. Risk of Credit Cooperatives: An analysis based on the profile of the cooperated

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Roberto de Souza Francisco

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This work has as purpose to analyze among the credit operations, those that generate larger breach of contract risk for the cooperative, with base in the profile of the cooperated, and to identify which the strategies can be pointed to avoid possible flaws in the next credit analyses. The work was divided in three stages. The first stage refers to the National Financial System, with the objective of demonstrating as in him the Cooperatives of Credit are inserted. The second stage approaches the System of Cooperative Credit, it presents that form is structured and his/her hierarchical level. The third stage treats of the System of Risk of Credit, in the which the risk, administration and the models of credit evaluation will be analyzed. It was verified that the most appropriate models for analysis of the Cooperatives of Credit are Credit Scoring Models and Credit Bureau, us which, through statistical techniques as the analysis discriminante and regression logistics, the characteristics of considered credits of larger breach of contract risk were demonstrated. The analysis based on identifying the "worse customer", because this generates larger breach of contract risk and it influences in the financial administration. It was ended that the most relevant variables to identify the breach of contract risk were the rude monthly income and the value liberated in the credit concession, because the largest concentration of breach of contract risk.

  7. Factors to consider in developing individual pharmaceutical product quality risk profiles useful to government procurement agencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wei; Boehm, Garth; Zheng, Qiang

    2016-01-01

    Governments that procure pharmaceutical products from an Essential Medicine List (EML) bear special responsibility for the quality of these products. In this article we examine the possibility of developing a pharmaceutical product quality risk assessment scheme for use by government procurement officials. We use the Chinese EML as a basis, and US recall data is examined as it is publically available.This is justified as the article is only concerned with inherent product quality risks. After establishing a link between Chinese essential medicines and those available in the US, we examine US recall data to separate product specific recalls. We conclude that, in addition to existing manufacturing based risks, there are two other product specific risks that stand out from all others, degradation and dissolution failure. Methodology for relative product risk for degradation is needed to be developed and further work is required to better understand dissolution failures which largely occur with modified-release solid oral products. We conclude that a product specific quality risk profile would be enhanced by including a risk assessment for degradation for all products, and in the case of solid oral products, dissolution.

  8. Clinical profile of high-risk febrile neutropenia in a tertiary care hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohan V Bhojaraja

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Background Infection in the immunocompromised host has been a reason of concern in the clinical setting and a topic of debate for decades. In this study, the aim was to analyse the clinical profile of high-risk febrile neutropenic patients. Aims To study the clinical profile of high risk febrile neutropenia patients with the objective of identifying the most common associated malignancy, most common associated pathogen, the source of infection, to correlate the treatment and management with that of the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA 2010 guidelines and to assess the clinical outcome. Methods A cross-sectional time bound study was carried out and a total of 80 episodes of high-risk febrile neutropenia were recorded among patients with malignancies from September 2011 to July 2013 with each episode being taken as a new case. Results Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (30 per cent was the most common malignancy associated, commonest source of infection was due to central venous catheters, the commonest pathogens were gram negative (52 per cent the treatment and management of each episode of high risk febrile neutropenia correlated with that of IDSA 2010 guidelines and the mortality rate was 13.75 per cent. Conclusion Febrile neutropenia is one of the major complications and cause of mortality in patients with malignancy and hence understanding its entire spectrum can help us reduce morbidity and mortality.

  9. Latent profile analysis of neuropsychological measures to determine preschoolers' risk for ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Khushmand; O'Neill, Sarah; Marks, David J; Halperin, Jeffrey M

    2015-09-01

    Hyperactive/Inattentive preschool children show clear evidence of neuropsychological dysfunction. We examined whether patterns and severity of test scores could reliably identify subgroups of preschoolers with differential risk for ADHD during school-age. Typically developing (TD: n = 76) and Hyperactive/Inattentive (HI: n = 138) 3-4 year olds were assessed annually for 6 years (T1-T6). Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to form subgroups among the HI group based on objective/neuropsychological measures (NEPSY, Actigraph and Continuous Performance Test). Logistic regression assessed the predictive validity of empirically formed subgroups at risk for ADHD diagnosis relative to the TD group and to each other from T2 to T6. Latent profile analysis yielded two subgroups of HI preschoolers: (a) selectively weak Attention/Executive functions, and (b) pervasive neuropsychological dysfunction across all measures. Both subgroups were more likely to have ADHD at all follow-up time-points relative to the TD group (OR range: 11.29-86.32), but there were no significant differences between the LPA-formed subgroups of HI children at any time-point. Objective/neuropsychological measures distinguish HI preschoolers from their TD peers, but patterns and severity of neuropsychological dysfunction do not predict risk for ADHD during school-age. We hypothesize that trajectories in at-risk children are influenced by subsequent environmental and neurodevelopmental factors, raising the possibility that they are amenable to early intervention. © 2015 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  10. Risk profile and quality of dental restorations: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonbul, Helal; Birkhed, Dowen

    2010-03-01

    The aims of the present study were (1) to evaluate the percentage of recurrent caries with respect to the estimated caries risk profile obtained with a Cariogram, (2) to evaluate the quality of restorations in a Saudi population with several restorations and (3) to determine the additional value of bite-wing radiographs as an aid to quality evaluation. A total of 803 restorations were examined in 100 adults according to the United States Public Health Service/Ryge criteria. Salivary and microbiological factors, dietary habits and plaque index were investigated. The Cariogram was used to evaluate the risk profiles. Class II bite-wing radiographs (n = 281) were taken to examine the marginal integrity and the anatomic form proximally. The patients were categorized according to 'the chance of avoiding caries' into three risk groups: 0%-20% (n = 38), 21%-40% (n = 28) and 41%-100% (n = 34). ANOVA revealed statistically significant differences between the risk groups with respect to the recurrent caries (P percentage of the total restorations (56%) were diagnosed with recurrent caries. The quality of anatomic form and surface texture was unacceptable in the majority of cases. After adding the evaluations of class II bite-wings, the percentage of unacceptable restorations increased by 28% and 17% with regard to marginal integrity and anatomic form, respectively (P percentage 'chance of avoiding caries' as estimated by the Cariogram. The importance of bite-wings was emphasized as an aid to quality evaluation.

  11. Spatial distribution of infection risk of SARS transmission in a hospital ward

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Hua; Li, Yuguo [School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing, JiangSu (China); Nielsen, Peter V. [Department of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, DK-9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Huang, Xinhua [Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai (China)

    2009-08-15

    The classical Wells-Riley model for predicting risk of airborne transmission of diseases assumes a uniform spatial distribution of the infected cases in an enclosed space. A new mathematical model is developed here for predicting the spatial distribution of infection risk of airborne transmitted diseases by integrating the Wells-Riley equation into computational fluid dynamics. We applied our new integrated model to analyze a large nosocomial SARS outbreak in Hong Kong during the 2003 SARS epidemics, which was studied in the literature with regard to the association between airflow and SARS infection. The predicted numbers of infected cases of medical students in the same cubicle, the adjacent cubicle and the distant cubicle were 6.39, 0.78 and 0.2 respectively while the observed numbers of infected medical students in the three cubicles were 7, 0 and 0 respectively during the morning of March 6th, which was the highest attack period. The predicted numbers of infected cases of inpatients during the morning of March 6th in the same cubicle, the adjacent cubic and the distance cubicle were 7.8, 5.1, and 4.8 respectively which also agree well with the observed distribution of the infected inpatients during the entire infection period. The new developed model provides a new modelling tool for investigating the airborne transmission of diseases in enclosed spaces. The model is applicable when the susceptible stays mostly at the same location in an enclosed space during the infectious period, such as inpatients in a hospital ward, passengers in an airplane etc. (author)

  12. The Source, Spatial Distribution and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Soil from the Pearl River Delta Based on the National Multi-Purpose Regional Geochemical Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lingyan; Guo, Shuhai; Wu, Bo

    2015-01-01

    The data on the heavy metal content at different soil depths derived from a multi-purpose regional geochemical survey in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) were analyzed using ArcGIS 10.0. By comparing their spatial distributions and areas, the sources of heavy metals (Cd, Hg, As and Pb) were quantitatively identified and explored. Netted measuring points at 25 ×25 km were set over the entire PRD according to the geochemical maps. Based on the calculation data obtained from different soil depths, the concentrations of As and Cd in a large area of the PRD exceeded the National Second-class Standard. The spatial disparity of the geometric centers in the surface soil and deep soil showed that As in the surface soil mainly came from parent materials, while Cd had high consistency in different soil profiles because of deposition in the soil forming process. The migration of Cd also resulted in a considerable ecological risk to the Beijiang and Xijiang River watershed. The potential ecological risk index followed the order Cd ≥ Hg > Pb > As. According to the sources, the distribution trends and the characteristics of heavy metals in the soil from the perspective of the whole area, the Cd pollution should be repaired, especially in the upper reaches of the Xijiang and Beijiang watershed to prevent risk explosion while the pollution of Hg and Pb should be controlled in areas with intense human activity, and supervision during production should be strengthened to maintain the ecological balance of As.

  13. Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Bouma, Menno J; Kohli, Vijay; Pascual, Mercedes

    2016-12-01

    The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria. Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors. Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more

  14. Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Santos-Vega

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria.Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors.Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a

  15. Spatial and temporal profile of cisplatin delivery by ultrasound-assisted intravesical chemotherapy in a bladder cancer model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noboru Sasaki

    Full Text Available Non-muscle invasive bladder cancer is one of the most common tumors of the urinary tract. Despite the current multimodal therapy, recurrence and progression of disease have been challenging problems. We hereby introduced a new approach, ultrasound-assisted intravesical chemotherapy, intravesical instillation of chemotherapeutic agents and microbubbles followed by ultrasound exposure. We investigated the feasibility of the treatment for non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. In order to evaluate intracellular delivery and cytotoxic effect as a function to the thickness, we performed all experiments using a bladder cancer mimicking 3D culture model. Ultrasound-triggered microbubble cavitation increased both the intracellular platinum concentration and the cytotoxic effect of cisplatin at the thickness of 70 and 122 μm of the culture model. The duration of enhanced cytotoxic effect of cisplatin by ultrasound-triggered microbubble cavitation was approximately 1 hr. Based on the distance and duration of delivery, we further tested the feasibility of repetition of the treatment. Triple treatment increased the effective distance by 1.6-fold. Our results clearly showed spatial and temporal profile of delivery by ultrasound-triggered microbubble cavitation in a tumor-mimicking structure. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the increase in intracellular concentration results in the enhancement of the cytotoxic effect in a structure with the certain thickness. Repetition of ultrasound exposure would be treatment of choice in future clinical application. Our results suggest ultrasound-triggered microbubble cavitation can be repeatable and is promising for the local control of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer.

  16. Victimization and Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Related Risk Among Transgender Women in India: A Latent Profile Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willie, Tiara C; Chakrapani, Venkatesan; White Hughto, Jaclyn M; Kershaw, Trace S

    2017-12-01

    Globally, transgender women (TGW) experience multiple forms of victimization such as violence and discrimination that can place them at risk for poor sexual health. To date, research overlooks the heterogeneity in experiences of victimization among TGW. Furthermore, few studies have examined the association between victimization and sexual risk among TGW in India, despite the high burden of HIV and victimization in this community. Latent profile analysis was performed to identify patterns of victimization in a convenience sample of 299 TGW recruited from nongovernmental organizations across four states in India. Analysis of covariance was performed to examine differences in sexual risk (i.e., alcohol use before sex; inconsistent condom use with a male regular partner, a male causal partner, and a male paying partner; and having multiple sexual partners) between latent profiles. Five distinct profiles of Indian TGW were identified based on the type and severity of victimization: (1) Low victimization, (2) High verbal police victimization, (3) High verbal and physical police victimization, (4) Moderate victimization, and (5) High victimization. While controlling for age, education, income, HIV status, and marital status, results revealed that TGW in the moderate victimization and high victimization profiles had higher sexual risk than TGW in the low victimization and high verbal police victimization profiles. In addition, TGW in high verbal and physical police victimization profile had higher sexual risk than TGW in low victimization profile. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring sexual risk reduction interventions to the specific needs of TGW based on patterns of victimization.

  17. Risk stratification in myelodysplastic syndromes: is there a role for gene expression profiling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeidan, Amer M; Prebet, Thomas; Saad Aldin, Ehab; Gore, Steven David

    2014-04-01

    Evaluation of: Pellagatti A, Benner A, Mills KI et al. Identification of gene expression-based prognostic markers in the hematopoietic stem cells of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. J. Clin. Oncol. 31(28), 3557-3564 (2013). Patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) exhibit wide heterogeneity in clinical outcomes making accurate risk-stratification an integral part of the risk-adaptive management paradigm. Current prognostic schemes for MDS rely on clinicopathological parameters. Despite the increasing knowledge of the genetic landscape of MDS and the prognostic impact of many newly discovered molecular aberrations, none to date has been incorporated formally into the major risk models. Efforts are ongoing to use data generated from genome-wide high-throughput techniques to improve the 'individualized' outcome prediction for patients. We here discuss an important paper in which gene expression profiling (GEP) technology was applied to marrow CD34(+) cells from 125 MDS patients to generate and validate a standardized GEP-based prognostic signature.

  18. Risk Profile Indicators and Spanish Banks’ Probability of Default from a Regulatory Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar Gómez-Fernández-Aguado

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the relationships between the traditional bank risk profile indicators and a new measure of banks’ probability of default that considers the Basel regulatory framework. First, based on the SYstemic Model of Bank Originated Losses (SYMBOL, we calculated the individual probabilities of default (PD of a representative sample of Spanish credit institutions during the period of 2008–2016. Then, panel data regressions were estimated to explore the influence of the risk indicators on the PD. Our findings on the Spanish banking system could be important to regulatory and supervisory authorities. First, the PD based on the SYMBOL model could be used to analyse bank risk from a regulatory approach. Second, the results might be useful for designing new regulations focused on the key factors that affect the banks’ probability of default. Third, our findings reveal that the emphasis on regulation and supervision should differ by type of entity.

  19. Effect of weight loss on the cardiovascular risk profile of obese patients with psoriasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Peter; Zachariae, Claus; Christensen, Robin

    2014-01-01

    Psoriasis is associated with obesity and other cardiovascular risk factors including endothelial dysfunction. We aimed to investigate the effects of weight loss on the cardiovascular risk profile of obese patients with psoriasis. A randomised controlled study was conducted in which we measured...... the microvascular endothelial function with peripheral arterial tonometry (PAT), selected plasma markers of endothelial function, and traditional cardiovascular risk factors in 60 obese patients with psoriasis. The participants were randomised to either low-energy diet (n = 30) providing 800-1,000 kcal/day for 8...... weeks followed by 8 weeks of reduced food intake reaching 1,200 kcal/day or normal healthy foods (n = 30) for 16 weeks. The intervention group lost significantly more weight than controls, which resulted in significant reductions of diastolic blood pressure, resting heart rate, total cholesterol, VLDL...

  20. Commercial viability of CNS drugs: balancing the risk/reward profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Ginger S

    2014-01-01

    CNS has historically been a formidable therapeutic area in which to innovate owing to biological (e.g., complex neurobiology, difficulty reaching the target), as well as clinical (e.g., subjective clinical endpoints, high placebo response, lack of biomarkers) challenges. In the current market where many of the larger diseases are dominated by a generic standard of care, commercial challenges now make the triple threat of scientific-clinical-commercial risk too much for many players to tackle. However, opportunities do exist for smaller biotech companies to concentrate on narrowly focused patient populations associated with high unmet need for which risk can be tightly defined. In CNS, there are two major areas to balance the risk/reward profile and create commercially viable opportunities: To realize value, all companies (start-ups and big players) must define, measure and quantify clear and meaningful value to all stakeholders: physicians, patients, caregivers and payers. © 2013.

  1. Risk of misclassification with a non-fasting lipid profile in secondary cardiovascular prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klop, Boudewijn; Hartong, Simone C C; Vermeer, Henricus J; Schoofs, Mariette W C J; Kofflard, Marcel J M

    2017-09-01

    Routinely fasting is not necessary for measuring the lipid profile according to the latest European consensus. However, LDL-C tends to be lower in the non-fasting state with risk of misclassification. The extent of misclassification in secondary cardiovascular prevention with a non-fasting lipid profile was investigated. 329 patients on lipid lowering therapy for secondary cardiovascular prevention measured a fasting and non-fasting lipid profile. Cut-off values for LDL-C, non-HDL-C and apolipoprotein B were set at fasting LDL-C (calculated using the Friedewald formula), direct LDL-C, non-HDL-C and apolipoprotein B. Net misclassification fasting measurements resulted in lower LDL-C (-0.2±0.4mmol/l, Pfasting LDL-C target of fasting state. In the non-fasting state net misclassification with direct LDL-C was 5.7% (95% CI 2.1-9.2%), 4.0% (95% CI 1.0-7.4%) with non-HDL-C and 4.1% (95% CI 1.1-9.1%) with apolipoprotein B. Use of non-fasting LDL-C as treatment target in secondary cardiovascular prevention resulted in significant misclassification with subsequent risk of undertreatment, whereas non-fasting direct LDL-C, non-HDL-C and apolipoprotein B are reliable parameters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Latex allergy: new insights to explain different sensitization profiles in different risk groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixinho, C; Tavares-Ratado, P; Tomás, M R; Taborda-Barata, L; Tomaz, C T

    2008-07-01

    Differences in latex allergen sensitization profiles have been described between children subjected to repetitive surgical interventions and health care workers (HCW). 'Major' allergens for patients with spina bifida are Hev b 1, 3 and 7, while for HCW, 'major' allergens are Hev b 2, 5, 6.01 and 13. The reason for these differential sensitization profiles is currently unknown. To investigate latex allergen profiles on internal and external surfaces of natural rubber latex gloves. Eighty-two samples of commonly used surgical gloves (41 glove brands) were used for analysis. Specific allergen levels of Hev b 1, 3, 5 and 6.02 on both surfaces of the gloves were quantified using an enzyme immunometric assay, a FITkit (FIT Biotech, Tampere, Finland). Differences in allergen levels were observed between internal and external surfaces of all glove types. Concentrations of Hev b 1 and Hev b 3 were significantly higher on external surfaces, while internal surfaces had higher allergen levels of Hev b 5 and Hev b 6.02. Analysis of surgical and examination gloves, powdered and nonpowdered gloves also showed that the content of Hev b 5 and Hev b 6.02 was significantly higher on internal surfaces while that of Hev b 1 and Hev b 3 was higher on external surfaces. Our study showed different allergen profiles on internal and external surfaces of natural rubber latex gloves. These results may suggest a relationship between latex allergen localization and sensitization routes in different risk groups.

  3. The spatial turn and the scenario approach in flood risk management—Implementing the European Floods Directive in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leon J. van Ruiten

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The European Floods Directive requires member states to prepare flood risk management plans for their river catchments. The first generation of those plans was just developed at the end of 2015; the next revision is due in 2021. The new instrument institutionalizes an ongoing paradigm shift from flood protection to flood risk management in Europe. It implies two major governance challenges: the spatial turn and the scenario approach. This contribution studies the implementation of these two governance challenges in the Netherlands, where the paradigm shift is considered to be advanced. Therefore, the spatial turn and the scenario approach are operationalized. The spatial turn consists of three aspects: space for the river, an integrated approach, and beyond structural measures. The scenario approach introduces the vulnerability of society in flood risk management. It is discussed how the challenges of spatial turn and the scenario approach—and thus the shift towards flood risk management—have an effect on the prevailing modes of governance in water management in the Netherlands. This helps understand the tensions and frictions with implementing the plans, but also illustrates how the European Floods Directive institutionalizes the shift towards flood risk management. The analytical scheme, consists mainly of operationalization, can foster future comparative studies with other countries and over time, to trace the changes in approaches to flood risks in Europe.

  4. CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

    2014-05-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk

  5. Spatial and temporal variation in radiation exposure of amphibians - Implications for environmental risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stark, K. [Stockholm University (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    Although amphibians are threatened world-wide, many amphibian species are protected in national legislation. Thus, amphibians need special attention in many environmental risk assessments for releases of contaminants such as radionuclides. In fact, amphibians' ecology and physiology (including, for example, a complex life-cycle with both aquatic and terrestrial life stages, and a thin skin) makes them sensitive to radiation exposure. In current dose models for wildlife, homogenous distribution of radionuclides in soil is assumed. However, soils are heterogeneous environments and radionuclide contamination can be very unevenly distributed. As a consequence, bioaccumulation of radionuclides in biota may vary on a local scale. Specifically, organisms' spatial location and movement within habitats may affect both their external and internal exposure pattern to radionuclides. Therefore, measuring the spatial location of individual amphibians within ecosystems and understanding why they use these different locations is essential for predicting potential effects of released radionuclides on these populations. The aim of this study was to investigate amphibians' spatial distribution in a {sup 137}Cs contaminated wetland area and their body content of {sup 137}Cs at the beginning and end of the summer period. The study site was a wetland nature reserve called Bladmyra near Gaevle in the central-eastern part of Sweden. This area received fallout of {sup 137}Cs after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. This study measured the spatial distributions of two amphibian species (Rana arvalis and Bufo bufo) with Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags in a mark-and-recapture study during 2012-2014. In addition, {sup 137}Cs body content in the two species was measured by whole body counting in spring and autumn of 2013. The results showed differences between years in how marked animals used the study area: More individuals stayed in a small area during 2012 than in 2013

  6. Comparing the prevalence and the risk profile for antenatal depressive symptoms across cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbani, Irene E; Rucci, Paola; Iapichino, Elena; Quartieri Bollani, Marta; Cauli, Gilla; Ceruti, Mara R; Gala, Costanzo; Bassi, Mariano

    2017-11-01

    Although several studies have analyzed the risk factors of antenatal and post-partum depression, evidence on the prevalence and the risk profile for antenatal depressive symptoms (ADS) between native-born and different groups of non-native born women living in the same country is scant. The aim of this article is to compare the prevalence and the risk profile for ADS across geographical areas in women recruited from two large hospitals of North-western Italy. The presence of ADS was defined as an Edinburgh Post-natal Depression Scale (EPDS) score ≥12 or a Beck Depression Inventory, Short Form (BDI-SF) score ≥9 or the presence of suicidal ideation/behavior. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of ADS were calculated using logistic regression models. The prevalence of ADS was 12.4% among Italian women and ranged from 11.4% in other European to 44.7% in North-African women. Crude ORs of ADS were OR = 3.3 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-8.8) for Asian, 3.3 (95% CI, 1.9-5.6) for South-American and 5.7 (95% CI, 3.4-9.6) for North-African women. Marital problems, at-risk pregnancy, past psychiatric history, pharmacological treatment, psychological treatment, financial problems, change in residence and number of children were significantly associated with ADS in multivariate analyses, regardless of women's origin. After adjusting for these variables, the OR of ADS remained significant for South-American and North-African women. Our results demonstrate that the risk of ADS varies across geographical areas of origin and is highest among North-African women. The risk factors identified should be assessed in routine obstetric care to inform decisions about interventions to prevent post-partum depression and its consequences on the mothers and the newborns.

  7. Risk profiles for heavy drinking in adolescence: differential effects of gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Sambu; Beck, Anne; Matthis, Caroline; Genauck, Alexander; Banaschewski, Tobias; Bokde, Arun L W; Bromberg, Uli; Büchel, Christian; Quinlan, Erin Burke; Flor, Herta; Frouin, Vincent; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Ittermann, Bernd; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Paillère Martinot, Marie-Laure; Nees, Frauke; Papadopoulos Orfanos, Dimitri; Poustka, Luise; Hohmann, Sarah; Fröhner, Juliane H; Smolka, Michael N; Walter, Henrik; Whelan, Robert; Desrivières, Sylvane; Heinz, Andreas; Schumann, Gunter; Obermayer, Klaus

    2018-05-30

    Abnormalities across different domains of neuropsychological functioning may constitute a risk factor for heavy drinking during adolescence and for developing alcohol use disorders later in life. However, the exact nature of such multi-domain risk profiles is unclear, and it is further unclear whether these risk profiles differ between genders. We combined longitudinal and cross-sectional analyses on the large IMAGEN sample (N ≈ 1000) to predict heavy drinking at age 19 from gray matter volume as well as from psychosocial data at age 14 and 19-for males and females separately. Heavy drinking was associated with reduced gray matter volume in 19-year-olds' bilateral ACC, MPFC, thalamus, middle, medial and superior OFC as well as left amygdala and anterior insula and right inferior OFC. Notably, this lower gray matter volume associated with heavy drinking was stronger in females than in males. In both genders, we observed that impulsivity and facets of novelty seeking at the age of 14 and 19, as well as hopelessness at the age of 14, are risk factors for heavy drinking at the age of 19. Stressful life events with internal (but not external) locus of control were associated with heavy drinking only at age 19. Personality and stress assessment in adolescents may help to better target counseling and prevention programs. This might reduce heavy drinking in adolescents and hence reduce the risk of early brain atrophy, especially in females. In turn, this could additionally reduce the risk of developing alcohol use disorders later in adulthood. © 2018 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  8. A Bayesian method to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings to catastrophic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lianfa; Wang, Jinfeng; Leung, Hareton; Zhao, Sisi

    2012-06-01

    Vulnerability of human beings exposed to a catastrophic disaster is affected by multiple factors that include hazard intensity, environment, and individual characteristics. The traditional approach to vulnerability assessment, based on the aggregate-area method and unsupervised learning, cannot incorporate spatial information; thus, vulnerability can be only roughly assessed. In this article, we propose Bayesian network (BN) and spatial analysis techniques to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings. In our approach, spatial analysis is leveraged to preprocess the data; for example, kernel density analysis (KDA) and accumulative road cost surface modeling (ARCSM) are employed to quantify the influence of geofeatures on vulnerability and relate such influence to spatial distance. The knowledge- and data-based BN provides a consistent platform to integrate a variety of factors, including those extracted by KDA and ARCSM to model vulnerability uncertainty. We also consider the model's uncertainty and use the Bayesian model average and Occam's Window to average the multiple models obtained by our approach to robust prediction of the risk and vulnerability. We compare our approach with other probabilistic models in the case study of seismic risk and conclude that our approach is a good means to mining spatial data sets for evaluating vulnerability. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Exploring the Linkage between Urban Flood Risk and Spatial Patterns in Small Urbanized Catchments of Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Yao

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In the context of global urbanization, urban flood risk in many cities has become a serious environmental issue, threatening the health of residents and the environment. A number of hydrological studies have linked urban flooding issues closely to the spectrum of spatial patterns of urbanization, but relatively little attention has been given to small-scale catchments within the realm of urban systems. This study aims to explore the hydrological effects of small-scaled urbanized catchments assigned with various landscape patterns. Twelve typical residential catchments in Beijing were selected as the study areas. Total Impervious Area (TIA, Directly Connected Impervious Area (DCIA, and a drainage index were used as the catchment spatial metrics. Three scenarios were designed as different spatial arrangement of catchment imperviousness. Runoff variables including total and peak runoff depth (Qt and Qp were simulated by using Strom Water Management Model (SWMM. The relationship between catchment spatial patterns and runoff variables were determined, and the results demonstrated that, spatial patterns have inherent influences on flood risks in small urbanized catchments. Specifically: (1 imperviousness acts as an effective indicator in affecting both Qt and Qp; (2 reducing the number of rainwater inlets appropriately will benefit the catchment peak flow mitigation; (3 different spatial concentrations of impervious surfaces have inherent influences on Qp. These findings provide insights into the role of urban spatial patterns in driving rainfall-runoff processes in small urbanized catchments, which is essential for urban planning and flood management.

  10. Exploring the Linkage between Urban Flood Risk and Spatial Patterns in Small Urbanized Catchments of Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Lei; Chen, Liding; Wei, Wei

    2017-01-01

    In the context of global urbanization, urban flood risk in many cities has become a serious environmental issue, threatening the health of residents and the environment. A number of hydrological studies have linked urban flooding issues closely to the spectrum of spatial patterns of urbanization, but relatively little attention has been given to small-scale catchments within the realm of urban systems. This study aims to explore the hydrological effects of small-scaled urbanized catchments assigned with various landscape patterns. Twelve typical residential catchments in Beijing were selected as the study areas. Total Impervious Area (TIA), Directly Connected Impervious Area (DCIA), and a drainage index were used as the catchment spatial metrics. Three scenarios were designed as different spatial arrangement of catchment imperviousness. Runoff variables including total and peak runoff depth (Qt and Qp) were simulated by using Strom Water Management Model (SWMM). The relationship between catchment spatial patterns and runoff variables were determined, and the results demonstrated that, spatial patterns have inherent influences on flood risks in small urbanized catchments. Specifically: (1) imperviousness acts as an effective indicator in affecting both Qt and Qp; (2) reducing the number of rainwater inlets appropriately will benefit the catchment peak flow mitigation; (3) different spatial concentrations of impervious surfaces have inherent influences on Qp. These findings provide insights into the role of urban spatial patterns in driving rainfall-runoff processes in small urbanized catchments, which is essential for urban planning and flood management. PMID:28264521

  11. The periconception maternal cardiovascular risk profile influences human embryonic growth trajectories in IVF/ICSI pregnancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnands, K P J; van Uitert, E M; Roeters van Lennep, J E; Koning, A H J; Mulders, A G M G J; Laven, J S E; Steegers, E A P; Steegers-Theunissen, R P M

    2016-06-01

    Is the maternal cardiovascular (CV) risk profile associated with human embryonic growth trajectories and does the mode of conception affect this association? This small study suggests that the maternal CV risk profile is inversely associated with first trimester embryonic growth trajectories in in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) pregnancies, but not in spontaneously conceived pregnancies. Maternal high-blood pressure and smoking affect placental function, accompanied by increased risk of fetal growth restriction and low-birthweight. Mothers who experience pregnancies complicated by fetal growth restriction are at increased risk of CV disease in later life. In a prospective periconception birth cohort conducted in a tertiary hospital, 111 singleton ongoing pregnancies with reliable pregnancy dating, no pre-existing maternal disease and no malformed live borns were investigated. Spontaneously conceived pregnancies with a reliable first day of the last menstrual period and a regular menstrual cycle of 25-31 days only (n = 66) and IVF/ICSI pregnancies (n = 45) were included. Women underwent weekly three-dimensional ultrasound scans (3D US) from 6- to 13-week gestational age. To estimate embryonic growth, serial crown-rump length (CRL) measurements were performed using the V-Scope software in a BARCO I-Space. Maternal characteristics and CV risk factors were collected by self-administered questionnaires. The CV risk profile was created based on a score of risk factors, including maternal age, body-mass index, CV disease in the family, diet and smoking. Quartiles of the CV risk score were calculated. Associations between the CV risk score and embryonic growth were assessed using square root transformed CRL in multivariable linear mixed model analyses. From the 111 included pregnancies, 696 3D US data sets were obtained of which 637 (91.5%) CRLs could be measured. In the total group, The CV risk score was inversely, but not significantly

  12. Complementarity of hydro and wind power: Improving the risk profile of energy inflows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denault, Michel; Dupuis, Debbie; Couture-Cardinal, Sebastien

    2009-01-01

    The complementarity of two renewable energy sources, namely hydro and wind, is investigated. We consider the diversification effect of wind power to reduce the risk of water inflow shortages, an important energy security concern for hydropower-based economic zones (e.g. Quebec and Norway). Our risk measure is based on the probability of a production deficit, in a manner akin to the value-at-risk, simulation analysis of financial portfolios. We examine whether the risk level of a mixed hydro-and-wind portfolio of generating assets improves on the risk of an all-hydro portfolio, by relaxing the dependence on water inflows and attenuating the impact of droughts. Copulas are used to model the dependence between the two sources of energy. The data considered, over the period 1958-2003, are for the province of Quebec, which possesses large hydro and wind resources. Our results indicate that for all scenarios considered, any proportion of wind up to 30% improves the production deficit risk profile of an all-hydro system. We can also estimate the value, in TW h, of any additional one percent of wind in the portfolio. (author)

  13. Risk profile of breast cancer following atypical hyperplasia detected through organized screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Elizabeth; Sullivan, Tom; Farshid, Gelareh; Hiller, Janet; Roder, David

    2015-06-01

    Few population-based data are available indicating the breast cancer risk following detection of atypia within a breast screening program. Prospectively collected data from the South Australian screening program were linked with the state cancer registry. Absolute and relative breast cancer risk estimates were calculated for ADH and ALH separately, and by age at diagnosis and time since diagnosis. Post-hoc analysis was undertaken of the effect of family history on breast cancer risk. Women with ADH and ALH had an increase in relative risk for malignancy (ADH HR 2.81 [95% CI 1.72, 4.59] and (ALH HR 4.14 [95% CI 1.97, 8.69], respectively. Differences in risk profile according to time since diagnosis and age at diagnosis were not statistically significant. Estimates of the relative risk of breast cancer are necessary to inform decisions regarding clinical management and/or treatment of women with ADH and ALH. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Identifying at-risk profiles and protective factors for problem gambling: A longitudinal study across adolescence and early adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allami, Youssef; Vitaro, Frank; Brendgen, Mara; Carbonneau, René; Tremblay, Richard E

    2018-05-01

    Past studies have identified various risk and protective factors for problem gambling (PG). However, no study has examined the interplay between these factors using a combination of person-centered and variable-centered approaches embedded within a longitudinal design. The present study aimed to (a) identify distinct profiles in early adolescence based on a set of risk factors commonly associated with PG (impulsivity, depression, anxiety, drug-alcohol use, aggressiveness, and antisociality), (b) explore the difference in reported gambling problems between these profiles during midadolescence and early adulthood, and (c) identify family- and peer-related variables that could operate as protective or compensatory factors in this context. Two samples were used: (a) a population sample (N = 1,033) living in low socioeconomic-status neighborhoods and (b) a population sample (N = 3,017) representative of students attending Quebec schools. Latent profile analyses were conducted to identify at-risk profiles based on individual risk factors measured at age 12 years. Negative binomial regression models were estimated to compare profiles in terms of their reported gambling problems at ages 16 and 23. Finally, family- and peer-related variables measured at age 14 were included to test their protective or compensatory role with respect to the link between at-risk profiles and gambling problems. Four profiles were identified: well-adjusted, internalizing, externalizing, and comorbid. Compared to the well-adjusted profile, the externalizing and comorbid profiles reported more gambling problems at ages 16 and 23, but the internalizing profile did not differ significantly. Various protective and compensatory factors emerged for each profile at both time points. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Cumulative socioeconomic status risk, allostatic load, and adjustment: a prospective latent profile analysis with contextual and genetic protective factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, Gene H; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-fu; Kogan, Steven M; Evans, Gary W; Beach, Steven R H; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X; Philibert, Robert A

    2013-05-01

    The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental precursors to this pattern. Hypotheses were tested with a representative sample of 443 African American youths living in the rural South. Cumulative SES risk and protective processes were assessed at ages 11-13 years; psychological adjustment was assessed at ages 14-18 years; genotyping at the 5-HTTLPR was conducted at age 16 years; and allostatic load (AL) was assessed at age 19 years. A latent profile analysis identified 5 profiles that evinced distinct patterns of SES risk, AL, and psychological adjustment, with 2 relatively large profiles designated as focal profiles: a physical health vulnerability profile characterized by high SES risk/high AL/low adjustment problems, and a resilient profile characterized by high SES risk/low AL/low adjustment problems. The physical health vulnerability profile mirrored the pattern found in the adult health disparities literature. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that carrying an s allele at the 5-HTTLPR and receiving less peer support distinguished the physical health vulnerability profile from the resilient profile. Protective parenting and planful self-regulation distinguished both focal profiles from the other 3 profiles. The results suggest the public health importance of preventive interventions that enhance coping and reduce the effects of stress across childhood and adolescence.

  16. Prevalence of Subclinical Coronary Artery Disease in Masters Endurance Athletes With a Low Atherosclerotic Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merghani, Ahmed; Maestrini, Viviana; Rosmini, Stefania; Cox, Andrew T; Dhutia, Harshil; Bastiaenan, Rachel; David, Sarojini; Yeo, Tee Joo; Narain, Rajay; Malhotra, Aneil; Papadakis, Michael; Wilson, Mathew G; Tome, Maite; AlFakih, Khaled; Moon, James C; Sharma, Sanjay

    2017-07-11

    Studies in middle-age and older (masters) athletes with atherosclerotic risk factors for coronary artery disease report higher coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores compared with sedentary individuals. Few studies have assessed the prevalence of coronary artery disease in masters athletes with a low atherosclerotic risk profile. We assessed 152 masters athletes 54.4±8.5 years of age (70% male) and 92 controls of similar age, sex, and low Framingham 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores with an echocardiogram, exercise stress test, computerized tomographic coronary angiogram, and cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging with late gadolinium enhancement and a 24-hour Holter. Athletes had participated in endurance exercise for an average of 31±12.6 years. The majority (77%) were runners, with a median of 13 marathon runs per athlete. Most athletes (60%) and controls (63%) had a normal CAC score. Male athletes had a higher prevalence of atherosclerotic plaques of any luminal irregularity (44.3% versus 22.2%; P =0.009) compared with sedentary males, and only male athletes showed a CAC ≥300 Agatston units (11.3%) and a luminal stenosis ≥50% (7.5%). Male athletes demonstrated predominantly calcific plaques (72.7%), whereas sedentary males showed predominantly mixed morphology plaques (61.5%). The number of years of training was the only independent variable associated with increased risk of CAC >70th percentile for age or luminal stenosis ≥50% in male athletes (odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.15; P =0.016); 15 (14%) male athletes but none of the controls revealed late gadolinium enhancement on cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging. Of these athletes, 7 had a pattern consistent with previous myocardial infarction, including 3(42%) with a luminal stenosis ≥50% in the corresponding artery. Most lifelong masters endurance athletes with a low atherosclerotic risk profile have normal CAC scores. Male athletes are more likely to have a CAC

  17. Genomic and Metabolomic Profile Associated to Clustering of Cardio-Metabolic Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrachelli, Vannina G; Rentero, Pilar; Mansego, María L; Morales, Jose Manuel; Galan, Inma; Pardo-Tendero, Mercedes; Martinez, Fernando; Martin-Escudero, Juan Carlos; Briongos, Laisa; Chaves, Felipe Javier; Redon, Josep; Monleon, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    To identify metabolomic and genomic markers associated with the presence of clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRFs) from a general population. One thousand five hundred and two subjects, Caucasian, > 18 years, representative of the general population, were included. Blood pressure measurement, anthropometric parameters and metabolic markers were measured. Subjects were grouped according the number of CMRFs (Group 1: profile was assessed by 1H NMR spectra using a Brucker Advance DRX 600 spectrometer. From the total population, 1217 (mean age 54±19, 50.6% men) with high genotyping call rate were analysed. A differential metabolomic profile, which included products from mitochondrial metabolism, extra mitochondrial metabolism, branched amino acids and fatty acid signals were observed among the three groups. The comparison of metabolomic patterns between subjects of Groups 1 to 3 for each of the genotypes associated to those subjects with three or more CMRFs revealed two SNPs, the rs174577_AA of FADS2 gene and the rs3803_TT of GATA2 transcription factor gene, with minimal or no statistically significant differences. Subjects with and without three or more CMRFs who shared the same genotype and metabolomic profile differed in the pattern of CMRFS cluster. Subjects of Group 3 and the AA genotype of the rs174577 had a lower prevalence of hypertension compared to the CC and CT genotype. In contrast, subjects of Group 3 and the TT genotype of the rs3803 polymorphism had a lower prevalence of T2DM, although they were predominantly males and had higher values of plasma creatinine. The results of the present study add information to the metabolomics profile and to the potential impact of genetic factors on the variants of clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors.

  18. Lipoprotein profile, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 and cardiovascular risk in hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolla, Roberta; De Mauri, Andreana; Valsesia, Ambra; Vidali, Matteo; Chiarinotti, Doriana; Bellomo, Giorgio

    2015-12-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in hemodialysis patients; the increased risk of cardiovascular disease is due to accelerated atherosclerosis, inflammation and impaired lipoprotein metabolism. We aimed to evaluate lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) and some pro-inflammatory aspects of the lipoprotein profile in dialyzed patients in order to evaluate the relationship with the accelerated atherosclerosis and vascular accidents. In 102 dialysis patients and 40 non-uremic controls, we investigated the lipoprotein plasma profile, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), ceruloplasmin and serum amyloid A protein (SAA), and followed patients for 1 year to analyze the risk of acute cardiovascular events. Total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein plasma levels were significantly lower in uremic patients than controls, whereas CRP, SAA, ceruloplasmin, Lp-PLA2 and their ratio with apolipoprotein A1 were significantly higher. Patients with Lp-PLA2 levels >194 nmol/min/ml had more acute cardiovascular events than patients with lower values. Our results show that in dialysis subjects: (1) low-density lipoproteins show a more atherogenic phenotype than in the general population; (2) high-density lipoproteins are less anti-inflammatory; (3) Lp-PLA2 could potentially be used to evaluate cardiovascular risk.

  19. Beneficial impact on cardiovascular risk profile of water buffalo meat consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, G; Guarini, P; Ferrari, P; Biondi-Zoccai, G; Schiavone, B; Giordano, A

    2010-09-01

    Meat is a good source of proteins and irons, yet its consumption has been associated with unfavorable cardiovascular effects. Whether this applies to all types of meat is unclear. We thus aimed to appraise the impact of water buffalo meat consumption on cardiovascular risk profile with an observational longitudinal study. Several important cardiovascular risk features were appraised at baseline and at 12-month follow-up in 300 adult subjects divided in groups: recent consumers of water buffalo meat vs subjects who had never consumed water buffalo meat. In addition, long-standing consumers of water buffalo meat were evaluated. Age, gender, height, body weight, and the remaining diet (with the exception of cow meat consumption) were similar across groups. From baseline to follow-up, recent consumers of water buffalo meat change their intake of water buffalo meat from none to 600+/-107 g per week (Pconsumption from 504+/-104 to 4+/-28 (PConsumption of buffalo meat seems to be associated with several beneficial effects on cardiovascular risk profile. Awaiting further randomized clinical trials, this study suggests that a larger consumption of water buffalo meat could confer significant cardiovascular benefits, while continuing to provide a substantial proportion of the recommended daily allowance of protein.

  20. Emotional profile and risk behaviours among tattooed and non-tattooed students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matea Zrno

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Aim To determine differences in emotional profile and frequencies of certain risk behaviours between tattooed and non-tattooed students. Methods One hundred students fulfilled personality assessment (trust, timid, depressive, distrust, aggressive, gregarious, controlled, uncontrolled and questionnaire of socio-demographic data that also included some questions about possession of tattoo (time, place, motive and about certain risk behaviours (court punishment, consummation of alcohol, psychoactive substances and cigarettes. Results The total number of 35 (out of 100 students had a tattoo, and 67 wished to have a tattoo. There was no statistically significant difference in emotional profile between tattooed and nontattooed individuals, yet the differences were detected when the group of subjects who wanted a tattoo and those who did not want a tattoo were compared. Higher result on the aggression scale of and lower on control scale was gained by those with the wish for tattooing. Students with bigger tattoos (23 showed higher score on depression scale. Students in the tattooed group more frequently abused drugs and committed traffic offences compared to the students in non-tattooed group. Conclusion Results of this research as well as previous research show that the presence of a tattoo could be a rough indicator for possible emotional problems and risk behaviour, which could have significant implications in preventing these behaviours. Future studies are required on a larger and more representative sample as well as to clarify why young people decide to be tattooed.

  1. Profile of congenital heart disease and correlation to risk adjustment for surgery; an echocardiographic study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhtar, K.; Ahmed, W.

    2008-01-01

    To determine the pattern and profile of Congenital Heart Diseases (CHD) in paediatric patients (age 1 day to 18 years) presenting to a paediatric tertiary referral centre and its correlation to risk adjustment for surgery for congenital heart disease. Over a period of 6 months, 1149 cases underwent 2-D echocardiography. It was a non-probability purposive sampling. This study showed 25% of all referrals had normal hearts. A male preponderance (38%) was observed from 1 year to 5 years age group. Nineteen percent of the cases were categorized as cyanotic CHD with the remaining as acyanotic variety. Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) represented 10%, Ventricular Septal Defects (VSD) 24%, followed by Patent Ductus Arteriosus (PDA) and Atrial Septal Defect (ASD), which comprised 6.6% and 6.5% respectively. VSD was the most common association in patients with more complex CHD (10%) followed by PDA in 3% and ASD in 1.2% of the cases. Most of the cases were category 2 in the RACHS-1 scoring system. VSD and TOF formed the major groups of cases profiled. Most of the cases recommended for surgery for congenital heart disease belonged to the risk category 2 (28.1%) followed by the risk category 1 (12.7%) of the RACHS-1 scoring system. (author)

  2. Effects induced on the transverse-spatial-impulse response of an inhomogeneous photoreceptor with a nonsymmetric refractive index profile and arbitrarily located origin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvo, M.L.

    1987-01-01

    In a few earlier communications, spatial-transverse-impulse response (STIR) associated with the initial field transversely distributed across the entrance pupil of an inhomogeneous optical wave guide (photo-receptor) has been investigated. In the present work, effects of indetermination in the location of the origin on an arbitrarily defined refractive index profile, representing the degree of inhomogenity at the aperture pupil of a single receptor, have been studied. Some consequences related to a few possible technical applications have been discussed

  3. Effects induced on the transverse-spatial-impulse response of an inhomogeneous photoreceptor with a nonsymmetric refractive index profile and arbitrarily located origin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calvo, M.L.; Mondal, P.K.

    1987-03-01

    In a few earlier communications, spatial-transverse-impulse response (STIR) associated with the initial field transversely distributed across the entrance pupil of an inhomogeneous optical wave guide (photoreceptor) has been investigated. In the present work, effects of indetermination in the location of the origin on an arbitrarily defined refractive index profile, representing the degree of inhomogeneity at the aperture pupil of a single receptor, have been studied. Some consequences related to a few possible technical applications have been discussed.

  4. Analysis of spatial dynamic of epizootic process of bluetongue and its risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchemla, Fayssal; Popova, Olga Mikhailovna; Agoltsov, Valerey Alexandrovich

    2017-10-01

    The study was undertaken to find out the spatial dynamic occurrence and patterns of the global spread of bluetongue (BT) disease for the period from 1996 to 2016, as well as the assessment of the risk of occurrence and its spread in 2017-2018. Outbreaks (serum samples were collected from clinically healthy as well as suspected animals in infected points) were confirmed and reported officially by veterinary departments which represent different geographical regions in the world to World Organization for Animal Health. These reports explained that ELISA and polymerase chain reaction were used to identify the BT disease, taking in the account number of infected, dead animals, and focus of BT infection in all susceptible animals from 1996 to 2016. Once conventional statistical population was defined (an observational study), we had classified data as well as possible to answer to our aim, using descriptive statistics methods, including the test of the relationship between different epizootiological indicators. The spatial dynamic study of BT's occurrence and its spread in the world over the two past decades was presented by different epizootic indicators. The given analysis includes assessment and measurement of risk factors. It was built too, regression models, and allowed to put different forecasts on the different epizootic indicators in the years 2017-2018 by the extrapolation method. We had also determined that, in 2017, BT continues to spread with the total expectancy of 3.4 focus of infection (number of diseased animals in a single unfavorable point) and mortality of about 26 %; these rates tend to decrease in 2018. At abused points by BT, up to 78.4% of animals are mixed (more than one type) and in 21.6% - uniform. By this way, the relative risk of the incidence of appearance-abused points in mixed households has 3.64, which might be considered higher for the BT dissemination. Moreover, between the enzootic index and other epizootiological indicators had

  5. Analysis of spatial dynamic of epizootic process of bluetongue and its risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fayssal Bouchemla

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The study was undertaken to find out the spatial dynamic occurrence and patterns of the global spread of bluetongue (BT disease for the period from 1996 to 2016, as well as the assessment of the risk of occurrence and its spread in 2017-2018. Materials and Methods: Outbreaks (serum samples were collected from clinically healthy as well as suspected animals in infected points were confirmed and reported officially by veterinary departments which represent different geographical regions in the world to World Organization for Animal Health. These reports explained that ELISA and polymerase chain reaction were used to identify the BT disease, taking in the account number of infected, dead animals, and focus of BT infection in all susceptible animals from 1996 to 2016. Once conventional statistical population was defined (an observational study, we had classified data as well as possible to answer to our aim, using descriptive statistics methods, including the test of the relationship between different epizootiological indicators. Results: The spatial dynamic study of BT's occurrence and its spread in the world over the two past decades was presented by different epizootic indicators. The given analysis includes assessment and measurement of risk factors. It was built too, regression models, and allowed to put different forecasts on the different epizootic indicators in the years 2017-2018 by the extrapolation method. We had also determined that, in 2017, BT continues to spread with the total expectancy of 3.4 focus of infection (number of diseased animals in a single unfavorable point and mortality of about 26 %; these rates tend to decrease in 2018. At abused points by BT, up to 78.4% of animals are mixed (more than one type and in 21.6% - uniform. By this way, the relative risk of the incidence of appearance-abused points in mixed households has 3.64, which might be considered higher for the BT dissemination. Moreover, between the enzootic

  6. Adverse lipid profile elevates risk for subarachnoid hemorrhage: A prospective population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindbohm, Joni; Korja, Miikka; Jousilahti, Pekka; Salomaa, Veikko; Kaprio, Jaakko

    2018-05-05

    Studies report that both high and low total cholesterol (TC) elevates SAH risk. There are few prospective studies on high-density lipoproteins (HDL-C) and low-density lipoproteins (LDL-C), and apparently none concerns apolipoproteins A and B. We aimed to clarify the association between lipid profile and SAH risk. The National FINRISK study provided risk-factor data recorded at enrolment between 1972 and 2007. During 1.52 million person-years of follow-up until 2014, 543 individuals suffered from incident hospitalized SAH or outside-hospital-fatal SAH. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate the hazard ratios and multiple imputation predicted ApoA1, ApoB, and LDL-C values for cohorts from a time before apolipoprotein-measurement methods were available. One SD elevation (1.28 mmol/l) in TC elevated SAH risk in men (hazard ratio (HR) 1.15 (95% CIs 1.00-1.32)). Low HDL-C levels increased SAH risk, as each SD decrease (0.37 mmol/l) in HDL-C raised the risk in women (HR 1.29 (95% CIs 1.07-1.55)) and men (HR 1.20 (95% CIs 1.14-1.27)). Each SD increase (0.29 g/l) in ApoA1 decreased SAH risk in women (HR 0.85 (95% CIs 0.74-0.97)) and men (HR 0.88 (95% CIs 0.76-1.02)). LDL-C (SD 1.07 mmol/l) and ApoB (SD 0.28 g/l) elevated SAH risk in men with HR 1.15 (95% CIs 1.01-1.31) and HR 1.26 (95% CIs 1.10-1.44) per one SD increase. Age did not change these findings. An adverse lipid profile seems to elevate SAH risk similar to its effect in other cardiovascular diseases, especially in men. Whether SAH incidence diminishes with increasing statin use remains to be studied. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. The spatial and temporal `cost' of volcanic eruptions: assessing economic impact, business inoperability, and spatial distribution of risk in the Auckland region, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Garry W.; Smith, Nicola J.; Kim, Joon-hwan; Cronin, Shane J.; Proctor, Jon N.

    2017-07-01

    Volcanic risk assessment has historically concentrated on quantifying the frequency, magnitude, and potential diversity of physical processes of eruptions and their consequent impacts on life and property. A realistic socio-economic assessment of volcanic impact must however take into account dynamic properties of businesses and extend beyond only measuring direct infrastructure/property loss. The inoperability input-output model, heralded as one of the 10 most important accomplishments in risk analysis over the last 30 years (Kujawaski Syst Eng. 9:281-295, 2006), has become prominent over the last decade in the economic impact assessment of business disruptions. We develop a dynamic inoperability input-output model to assess the economic impacts of a hypothetical volcanic event occurring at each of 7270 unique spatial locations throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. This field of at least 53 volcanoes underlies the country's largest urban area, the Auckland region, which is home to 1.4 million people and responsible for 35.3% (NZ201481.2 billion) of the nation's GDP (Statistics New Zealand 2015). We apply volcanic event characteristics for a small-medium-scale volcanic eruption scenario and assess the economic impacts of an `average' eruption in the Auckland region. Economic losses are quantified both with, and without, business mitigation and intervention responses in place. We combine this information with a recent spatial hazard probability map (Bebbington and Cronin Bull Volcanol. 73(1):55-72, 2011) to produce novel spatial economic activity `at risk' maps. Our approach demonstrates how business inoperability losses sit alongside potential life and property damage assessment in enhancing our understanding of volcanic risk mitigation.

  8. Spatial analysis of under-5 mortality and potential risk factors in the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System, the Gambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, John; Jasseh, Momodou; Mackenzie, Grant; Castro, Marcia C

    2015-07-01

    To describe the spatial pattern in under-5 mortality rates in the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS) and to test for associations between under-5 deaths and biodemographic and socio-economic risk factors. Using data on child survival from 2007 to 2011 in the BHDSS, we mapped under-5 mortality by km(2) . We tested for spatial clustering of high or low death rates using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. Associations between child death and a variety of biodemographic and socio-economic factors were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models, and deviance residuals from the best-fitting model were tested for spatial clustering. The overall death rate among children under 5 was 0.0195 deaths per child-year. We found two spatial clusters of high death rates and one spatial cluster of low death rates; children in the two high clusters died at a rate of 0.0264 and 0.0292 deaths per child-year, while in the low cluster, the rate was 0.0144 deaths per child-year. We also found that children born to Fula mothers experienced, on average, a higher hazard of death, whereas children born in the households in the upper two quintiles of asset ownership experienced, on average, a lower hazard of death. After accounting for the spatial distribution of biodemographic and socio-economic characteristics, we found no residual spatial pattern in child mortality risk. This study demonstrates that significant inequality in under-5 death rates can occur within a relatively small area (1100 km(2) ). Risks of under-5 mortality were associated with mother's ethnicity and household wealth. If high mortality clusters persist, then equity concerns may require additional public health efforts in those areas. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Risk Profile of the RET A883F Germline Mutation: An International Collaborative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathiesen, Jes Sloth; Habra, Mouhammed Amir; Bassett, John Howard Duncan; Choudhury, Sirazum Mubin; Balasubramanian, Sabapathy Prakash; Howlett, Trevor A; Robinson, Bruce G; Gimenez-Roqueplo, Anne-Paule; Castinetti, Frederic; Vestergaard, Peter; Frank-Raue, Karin

    2017-06-01

    The A883F germline mutation of the rearranged during transfection (RET) proto-oncogene causes multiple endocrine neoplasia 2B. In the revised American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines for the management of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), the A883F mutation has been reclassified from the highest to the high-risk level, although no well-defined risk profile for this mutation exists. To create a risk profile for the A883F mutation for appropriate classification among the ATA risk levels. Retrospective analysis. International collaboration. Included were 13 A883F carriers. The intervention was thyroidectomy. Earliest age of MTC, regional lymph node metastases, distant metastases, age-related penetrance of MTC and pheochromocytoma (PHEO), overall and disease-specific survival, and biochemical cure rate. One and three carriers were diagnosed at age 7 to 9 years (median, 7.5 years) with a normal thyroid and C-cell hyperplasia, respectively. Nine carriers were diagnosed with MTC at age 10 to 39 years (median, 19 years). The earliest age of MTC, regional lymph node metastasis, and distant metastasis was 10, 20, and 20 years, respectively. Fifty percent penetrance of MTC and PHEO was achieved by age 19 and 34 years, respectively. Five- and 10-year survival rates (both overall and disease specific) were 88% and 88%, respectively. Biochemical cure for MTC at latest follow-up was achieved in 63% (five of eight carriers) with pertinent data. MTC of A883F carriers seems to have a more indolent natural course compared with that of M918T carriers. Our results support the classification of the A883F mutation in the ATA high-risk level. Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society

  10. Maternal and perinatal outcomes in 143 Danish women with gestational diabetes mellitus and 143 controls with a similar risk profile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Dorte Møller; Sørensen, B; Feilberg-Jørgensen, N

    2000-01-01

    To assess maternal and fetal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) compared to non-diabetic pregnancies with an otherwise similar risk profile and to study the association between different anti-diabetic treatments and fetal outcomes.......To assess maternal and fetal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) compared to non-diabetic pregnancies with an otherwise similar risk profile and to study the association between different anti-diabetic treatments and fetal outcomes....

  11. Profile of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Patients with Coronary Heart Disease, Normal and Impaired Carbohydrate Metabolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    І.V. Cherniavska

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of research was to conduct the comparative analysis of the profile of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD and normal either impaired carbohydrate metabolism. Materials and methods. One hundred and forty two patients were observed. In order to estimate the rate of different forms of CHD depending on the state of carbohydrate metabolism such groups were formed: the first group consisted of 83 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM, the second group involved 34 patients with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT, the third group consisted of 25 patients with normal carbohydrate metabolism. The ischemic changes of myocardium were detected by ambulatory ECG monitoring with the obligatory achievement of submaximal heart rate during the research. Results. Silent myocardial ischemia was educed in 19 (22.9 % patients with type 2 DM, in 3 (8.8 % persons with IGT and in 2 (8.0 % patients with normal carbohydrate metabolism. Smoking, burdened heredity, violation in the haemostatic system more often occurred in the group of patients with type 2 DM and silent myocardial ischemia in comparison with the patients with type 2 DM without CHD. The profile of general population cardiovascular risk factors in patients with CHD and type 2 DM belongs to the most unfavorable. At the same time for patients with early violations of carbohydrate metabolism and normal carbohydrate metabolism such profile statistically does not differentiate meaningfully. Conclusions. Patients with type 2 DM and silent myocardial ischemia as compared to patients with type 2 DM without CHD have more expressed violations of indexes of general population cardiovascular risk factors for certain.

  12. Unique dietary patterns and chronic disease risk profiles of adult men: the Framingham nutrition studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millen, Barbara E; Quatromoni, Paula A; Pencina, Michael; Kimokoti, Ruth; Nam, Byung-H O; Cobain, Sonia; Kozak, Waldemar; Appugliese, Danielle P; Ordovas, Jose; D'Agostino, Ralph B

    2005-11-01

    To identify the dietary patterns of adult men and examine their relationships with nutrient intake and chronic disease risk over long-term follow-up. Baseline 145-item food frequency questionnaires from 1,666 Framingham Offspring-Spouse cohort men were used to identify comprehensive dietary patterns. Independent 3-day dietary records at baseline and 8 years later provided estimates of subjects' nutrient intake by dietary pattern. Chronic disease risk factor status was compared at baseline and 16-year follow-up across all male dietary patterns. Cluster analysis was applied to food frequency data to identify non-overlapping male dietary patterns. Analysis of covariance and logistic regression were used to compare nutrient intake, summary nutritional risk scores, and chronic disease risk status at baseline and follow-up by male dietary pattern. Five distinct and comprehensive dietary patterns of Framingham Offspring-Spouse men were identified and ordered according to overall nutritional risk: Transition to Heart Healthy, Higher Starch, Average Male, Lower Variety, and Empty Calories. Nutritional risk was high and varied by dietary pattern; key nutrient contrasts were stable over 8-year follow-up. Chronic disease risk also varied by dietary pattern and specific subgroup differences persisted over 16 years, notably rates of overweight/obesity and smoking. Quantitative cluster analysis applied to food frequency questionnaire data identified five distinct, comprehensive, and stable dietary patterns of adult Framingham Offspring-Spouse cohort men. The close associations between the dietary patterns, nutritional risk, and chronic disease profiles of men emphasize the importance of targeted preventive nutrition interventions to promote health in the male population.

  13. Spatial distribution of environmental risk associated to a uranium abandoned mine (Central Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes, I. M.; Ribeiro, A. F.

    2012-04-01

    The abandoned uranium mine of Canto do Lagar is located at Arcozelo da Serra, central Portugal. The mine was exploited in an open pit and produced about 12430Kg of uranium oxide (U3O8), between 1987 and 1988. The dominant geological unit is the porphyritic coarse-grained two-mica granite, with biotite>muscovite. The uranium deposit consists of two gaps crushing, parallel to the coarse-grained porphyritic granite, with average direction N30°E, silicified, sericitized and reddish jasperized, with a width of approximately 10 meters. These gaps are accompanied by two thin veins of white quartz, 70°-80° WNW, ferruginous and jasperized with chalcedony, red jasper and opal. These veins are about 6 meters away from each other. They contain secondary U-phosphates phases such as autunite and torbernite. Rejected materials (1000000ton) were deposited on two dumps and a lake was formed in the open pit. To assess the environmental risk of the abandoned uranium mine of Canto do Lagar, were collected and analysed 70 samples on stream sediments, soils and mine tailings materials. The relation between samples composition were tested using the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) (multivariate analysis) and spatial distribution using Kriging Indicator. The spatial distribution of stream sediments shows that the probability of expression for principal component 1 (explaining Y, Zr, Nb, La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Hf, Th and U contents), decreases along SE-NW direction. This component is explained by the samples located inside mine influence. The probability of expression for principal component 2 (explaining Be, Na, Al, Si, P, K, Ca, Ti, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, As, Rb, Sr, Mo, Cs, Ba, Tl and Bi contents), increases to middle stream line. This component is explained by the samples located outside mine influence. The spatial distribution of soils, shows that the probability of expression for principal component 1 (explaining Mg, P, Ca, Ge, Sr, Y, Zr, La, Ce, Pr

  14. Estimation of Hypertension Risk from Lifestyle Factors and Health Profile: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuoyuan Zheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Hypertension is a highly prevalent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and it can also lead to other diseases which seriously harm the human health. Screening the risks and finding a clinical model for estimating the risk of onset, maintenance, or the prognosis of hypertension are of great importance to the prevention or treatment of the disease, especially if the indicator can be derived from simple health profile. In this study, we investigate a chronic disease questionnaire data set of 6563 rural citizens in East China and find out a clinical signature that can assess the risk of hypertension easily and accurately. The signature achieves an accuracy of about 83% on the external test dataset, with an AUC of 0.91. Our study demonstrates that a combination of simple lifestyle features can sufficiently reflect the risk of hypertension onset. This finding provides potential guidance for disease prevention and control as well as development of home care and home-care technologies.

  15. Metabolic syndrome and metabolic risk profile according to polycystic ovary syndrome phenotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bil, Enes; Dilbaz, Berna; Cirik, Derya Akdag; Ozelci, Runa; Ozkaya, Enis; Dilbaz, Serdar

    2016-07-01

    It is unknown which phenotype of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) has a greater metabolic risk and how to detect this risk. The aim of this study was therefore to compare the incidence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and metabolic risk profile (MRP) for different phenotypes. A total of 100 consecutive newly diagnosed PCOS women in a tertiary referral hospital were recruited. Patients were classified into four phenotypes according to the Rotterdam criteria, on the presence of at least two of the three criteria hyperandrogenism (H), oligo/anovulation (O) and PCO appearance (P): phenotype A, H + O + P; phenotype B, H + O; phenotype C, H + P; phenotype D, O + P. Prevalence of MetS and MRP were compared among the four groups. Based on Natural Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III diagnostic criteria, MetS prevalence was higher in phenotypes A and B (29.6% and 34.5%) compared with the other phenotypes (10.0% and 8.3%; P 3.8 was significantly higher in androgenic PCOS phenotypes. After logistic regression analysis, visceral adiposity index (VAI) was the only independent predictor of MetS in PCOS (P = 0.002). VAI was also significantly higher in phenotype B, when compared with the others (P risk of MetS among the four phenotypes, and VAI may be a predictor of metabolic risk in PCOS women. © 2016 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  16. Preschool language profiles of children at family risk of dyslexia: continuities with specific language impairment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, Hannah M.; Hulme, Charles; Gooch, Debbie; Snowling, Margaret J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Children at family risk of dyslexia have been reported to show phonological deficits as well as broader language delays in the preschool years. Method The preschool language skills of 112 children at family risk of dyslexia (FR) at ages 3½ and 4½ were compared with those of children with SLI and typically developing (TD) controls. Results Children at FR showed two different profiles: one third of the group resembled the children with SLI and scored poorly across multiple domains of language including phonology. As a group, the remaining children had difficulties on tasks tapping phonological skills at T1 and T2. At the individual level, we confirmed that some FR children had both phonological and broader oral language difficulties (compared with TD controls), some had only phonological difficulties and some appeared to be developing typically. Conclusions We have highlighted the early overlap between family risk of dyslexia and SLI. A family history of dyslexia carries an increased risk for SLI and the two disorders both show an increased incidence of phonological deficits which appear to a proximal risk factor for developing a reading impairment. PMID:23772651

  17. Spatial gradient of human health risk from exposure to trace elements and radioactive pollutants in soils at the Puchuncaví-Ventanas industrial complex, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmani-Ghabeshi, S; Palomo-Marín, M R; Bernalte, E; Rueda-Holgado, F; Miró-Rodríguez, C; Cereceda-Balic, F; Fadic, X; Vidal, V; Funes, M; Pinilla-Gil, E

    2016-11-01

    The Punchuncaví Valley in central Chile, heavily affected by a range of anthropogenic emissions from a localized industrial complex, has been studied as a model environment for evaluating the spatial gradient of human health risk, which are mainly caused by trace elemental pollutants in soil. Soil elemental profiles in 121 samples from five selected locations representing different degrees of impact from the industrial source were used for human risk estimation. Distance to source dependent cumulative non-carcinogenic hazard indexes above 1 for children (max 4.4 - min 1.5) were found in the study area, ingestion being the most relevant risk pathway. The significance of health risk differences within the study area was confirmed by statistical analysis (ANOVA and HCA) of individual hazard index values at the five sampling locations. As was the dominant factor causing unacceptable carcinogenic risk levels for children (sampling locations which are closer to the industrial complex, whereas the risk was just in the tolerable range (10 -6 - 10 -4 ) for children and adults in the rest of the sampling locations at the study area. Furthermore, we assessed gamma ray radiation external hazard indexes and annual effective dose rate from the natural radioactivity elements ( 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K) levels in the surface soils of the study area. The highest average values for the specific activity of 232 Th (31 Bq kg -1 ), 40 K (615 Bq kg - 1 ), and 226 Ra (25 Bq kg -1 ) are lower than limit recommended by OECD, so no significant radioactive risk was detected within the study area. In addition, no significant variability of radioactive risk was observed among sampling locations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. [Maternal depressive symptomatology in México: National prevalence, care, and population risk profiles].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Castro, Filipa; Place, Jean Marie; Villalobos, Aremis; Allen-Leigh, Betania

    2015-01-01

    This study estimates the prevalence of depressive symptomatology (DS) in women with children younger than five years of age, examines detection and care rates and probabilities of developing DS based on specific risk profiles. The sample consists of 7 187 women with children younger than five drawn from the Ensanut 2012. DS prevalence is 19.91%, which means at least 4.6 million children live with mothers who experience depressive symptoms indicative of moderate to severe depression. Rates of detection (17.06%) and care (15.19%) for depression are low. DS is associated with violence (OR=2.34; IC95% 1.06-5.15), having ≥4 children, having a female baby, older age of the last child, low birth weight, food insecurity, and sexual debut Mexico associated with a well-defined set of risk factors that warrant attention and timely detection at various levels of care.

  19. Caries risk profile of Korean dental patients with severe intellectual disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Juhea; Lee, Jung-Hyun; Son, Ho-Hyun; Kim, Hae-Young

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluated the caries risk profile of patients with severe intellectual disabilities (IDs) who received dental treatment under general anesthesia. One hundred and two patients with ID [ID group, mean age (SD); 23.8(9.3)] and 100 healthy patients without ID [NID group, mean age (SD); 23.19(3.3)] were included. Medication, disability type, oral hygiene maintenance, and cooperation of the patients were investigated. Dietary habits, plaque index, mutans streptococci counts, fluoride availability, and salivary buffering were scored and analyzed using the Cariogram. The mean chance of avoiding caries (SD) was 28.1(20.4) in the ID group and 54.7(18.4) in the NID group. The ID group had significantly higher numbers of decayed and missing teeth, but fewer filled teeth than the NID group (p oral hygiene maintenance (p oral hygiene maintenance and low fluoride availability most contributed to the high risk. © 2014 Special Care Dentistry Association and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Fall risk profile and quality-of-life status of older chiropractic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Kelly R; Noone, Paul L; Short, Krystal; Elley, C Raina; Haavik, Heidi

    2011-02-01

    The primary aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of fall risk factors in older chiropractic patients. The secondary aim was to investigate the quality-of-life status of older chiropractic patients and to see whether a history of falling was related to quality-of-life status. A cross-sectional study was conducted at 12 chiropractic practices throughout Auckland, New Zealand, and Melbourne, Australia. The study involved gaining a profile of health status, fall history, and fall risk from active chiropractic patients who were 65 years or older. One hundred ten older chiropractic patients were approached, and 101 agreed to participate in this study (response rate, 91.8%). Thirty-five percent of participants had experienced at least 1 fall in the previous 12 months. Of those that had fallen, 80% had at least a minor injury, with 37% of fallers requiring medical attention and 6% suffering a serious injury. The prevalence of most fall risk factors was consistent with published data for community-dwelling older adults. Quality of life of older chiropractic patients appeared to be good, but fallers reported a lower physical component summary score compared with nonfallers (P = .04). A portion of the older chiropractic patients sampled in this study had a substantial risk of falling. This risk could be assessed on a regular basis for the presence of modifiable fall risk factors, and appropriate advice, given when fall risks are identified. Copyright © 2011 National University of Health Sciences. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Using a multifactorial approach to determine fall risk profiles in portuguese older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moniz-Pereira, Vera; Carnide, Filomena; Ramalho, Fátima; André, Helô; Machado, Maria; Santos-Rocha, Rita; Veloso, António P

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to use a multifactorial approach to characterize episodic and recurrent fallers risk profiles in Portuguese older adults. To accomplish the mentioned purpose, 1416 Portuguese older adults above 65 years were tested with three different field measurements: 1) health and falls questionnaire; 2) Physical Activity questionnaire and 3) a set of functional fitness tests. The subjects were divided in three different groups according to fall prevalence: non-fallers, subjects who did not report any falls during the previous year, episodic fallers, those who reported to have fallen only once during the previous year, and recurrent fallers, the ones that fell twice or more times during the previous year. Episodic and Recurrent fallers risk profiles were established using multifactorial logistic regression models in order to avoid confounding effects between the variables. The results showed that age was not a risk factor for either episodic or recurrent falling. In addition, health parameters were shown to be the factors distinguishing recurrent from episodic fallers. This may imply that, comparing with episodic falls, recurrent falls are more associated with higher presence of chronic conditions and are less likely to occur due to external factors. Furthermore, being a woman, having fear of falling and lower functional fitness levels were determinant factors for both episodic and recurrent falls. It is also important to note that, although total physical activity was only related with episodic falling, promoting physical activity and exercise may be the easiest and cheapest way to improve functional fitness and health levels and therefore, its role in fall prevention should not be underestimated. The results of this study reinforce the importance of using a multifactorial approach, not only focusing on cognitive-behavioral factors, but also on promoting physical activity and healthy lifestyles, when assessing fall risk or planning an intervention

  2. Lipid profiles of vegetarian and non-vegetarian children at risk of overweight or obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arie Purwana

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Background The type, amount, and composition of a diet may affect the levels of cholesterol in blood. Itis believed that children adhering to a vegetarian diet have lower total cholesterol levels and lower body mass indexes compared to children with non-vegetarian (omnivorous diets. We wish to compare cholesterol levels of vegetarian and non-vegetarian Indonesian children who are at risk of overweight or obesity. Objective To compare lipid profiles of vegetarian and no-vegetarian children who are at risk for overweight or obesity. Methods We performed a cross-sectional study in January and February 2010. Subjects for this study came from Denpasar, Bali. Subjects filled questionnaires as well as underwent history-taking, anthropometric measurements, and blood testing. We performed lipid profile analyses on their blood samples. We used the independent t test and Mann-Whitney test for statistical analysis of the data. The level of significance was set at P <0.05. Results Our study included forty-four children at risk for overweight or obesity with a vegetarian or non-vegetarian diet. We found that vegetarian children had lower mean total cholesterol (144 mg/dL than that of non-vegetarian children (171 mg/dL, a statistically significant difference of P=0.014. In addition, vegetarian children had lower mean triglyceride levels (150 mg/dL than those of nonvegetarian children (264 mg/dL, a statistically significant difference of P =0 .025. Conclusion Among Balinese children at risk of overweight or obesity, vegetarians have significantly lower mean total cholesterol and triglyceride levels than non-vegetarians.

  3. Developmental Profiles for Multiple Object Tracking and Spatial Memory: Typically Developing Preschoolers and People with Williams Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hearn, Kirsten; Hoffman, James E.; Landau, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    The ability to track moving objects, a crucial skill for mature performance on everyday spatial tasks, has been hypothesized to require a specialized mechanism that may be available in infancy (i.e. indexes). Consistent with the idea of specialization, our previous work showed that object tracking was more impaired than a matched spatial memory…

  4. Risk Factors and Spatial Clusters of Cryptosporidium Infection among School-Age Children in a Rural Region of Eastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Hao; He, Jianfeng; Wang, Li; Zhang, Rong; Ding, Zhen; Hu, Wenbiao

    2018-05-06

    The epidemiological features of Cryptosporidium infection among school-age children in China still remain unclear. Hereby, a cross-sectional study of 1637 children aged 3⁻9 years was designed to investigate the risk factors and spatial clusters of Cryptosporidium infection in a rural region of Eastern China. Stool specimens collected from participants were examined using the auramine-phenol and modified acid-fast staining. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify the risk factors of Cryptospordium infection. The spatial clusters were analyzed by a discrete Poisson model using SaTScan software. Our results showed that the overall prevalence of Cryptosporidium infection was 11‰ in the research region. At the age of 3⁻6 years (odds ratios (OR) = 3.072, 95% confidence intervals (CI) : 1.001⁻9.427), not washing hands before eating and after defecation (OR = 3.003, 95% CI: 1.060⁻8.511) were recognized as risk factors. Furthermore, a high-risk spatial cluster (relative risk = 4.220, p = 0.025) was identified. These findings call for effective sustainable interventions including family and school-based hygienic education to reduce the prevalence of Cryptosporidium infection. Therefore, an early warning system based spatiotemporal models with risk factors is required to further improve the effectiveness and efficiency of cryptosporidiosis control in the future.

  5. Cardiovascular risk profile and frailty in a population-based study of older British men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsay, S E; Arianayagam, D S; Whincup, P H; Lennon, L T; Cryer, J; Papacosta, A O; Iliffe, S; Wannamethee, S G

    2015-04-01

    Frailty in older age is known to be associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, the extent to which frailty is associated with the CVD risk profile has been little studied. Our aim was to examine the associations of a range of cardiovascular risk factors with frailty and to assess whether these are independent of established CVD. Cross-sectional study of a socially representative sample of 1622 surviving men aged 71-92 examined in 2010-2012 across 24 British towns, from a prospective study initiated in 1978-1980. Frailty was defined using the Fried phenotype, including weight loss, grip strength, exhaustion, slowness and low physical activity. Among 1622 men, 303 (19%) were frail and 876 (54%) were pre-frail. Compared with non-frail, those with frailty had a higher odds of obesity (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.38 to 2.99), high waist circumference (OR 2.30, 95% CI 1.67 to 3.17), low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.47 to 3.54) and hypertension (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.27 to 2.54). Prevalence of these factors was also higher in those with frailty (prevalence in frail vs non-frail groups was 46% vs 31% for high waist circumference, 20% vs 11% for low HDL and 78% vs 65% for hypertension). Frail individuals had a worse cardiovascular risk profile with an increased risk of high heart rate, poor lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)), raised white cell count (WCC), poor renal function (low estimated glomerular filtration rate), low alanine transaminase and low serum sodium. Some risk factors (HDL-C, hypertension, WCC, FEV1, renal function and albumin) were also associated with being pre-frail. These associations remained when men with prevalent CVD were excluded. Frailty was associated with increased risk of a range of cardiovascular factors (including obesity, HDL-C, hypertension, heart rate, lung function, renal function) in older people; these associations were independent of established CVD. Published by the BMJ

  6. Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassandra Johnson Gaither; Neelam C. Poudyal; Scott Goodrick; J. M. Bowker; Sparkle L Malone; Jianbang. Gan

    2011-01-01

    The southeastern U.S. is one of the more wildland fire prone areas of the country and also contains some of the poorest or most socially vulnerable rural communities. Our project addresses wildland fire risk in this part of the U.S and its intersection with social vulnerability. We examine spatial association between high wildland fire prone areas which also rank high...

  7. Spatial analysis of health risk assessment with arsenic intake of drinking water in the LanYang plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. F.; Liang, C. P.; Jang, C. S.; Chen, J. S.

    2016-12-01

    Groundwater is one of the most component water resources in Lanyang plain. The groundwater of the Lanyang Plain contains arsenic levels that exceed the current Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (Taiwan EPA) limit of 10 μg/L. The arsenic of groundwater in some areas of the Lanyang Plain pose great menace for the safe use of groundwater resources. Therefore, poor water quality can adversely impact drinking water uses, leading to human health risks. This study analyzed the potential health risk associated with the ingestion of arsenic-affected groundwater in the arseniasis-endemic Lanyang plain. Geostatistical approach is widely used in spatial variability analysis and distributions of field data with uncertainty. The estimation of spatial distribution of the arsenic contaminant in groundwater is very important in the health risk assessment. This study used indicator kriging (IK) and ordinary kriging (OK) methods to explore the spatial variability of arsenic-polluted parameters. The estimated difference between IK and OK estimates was compared. The extent of arsenic pollution was spatially determined and the Target cancer risk (TR) and dose response were explored when the ingestion of arsenic in groundwater. Thus, a zonal management plan based on safe groundwater use is formulated. The research findings can provide a plan reference of regional water resources supplies for local government administrators and developing groundwater resources in the Lanyang Plain.

  8. Malaria prevalence, spatial clustering and risk factors in a low endemic area of Eastern Rwanda: a cross sectional study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rulisa, Stephen; Kateera, Fredrick; Bizimana, Jean Pierre; Agaba, Steven; Dukuzumuremyi, Javier; Baas, Lisette; de Dieu Harelimana, Jean; Mens, Petra F.; Boer, Kimberly R.; de Vries, Peter J.

    2013-01-01

    Rwanda reported significant reductions in malaria burden following scale up of control intervention from 2005 to 2010. This study sought to; measure malaria prevalence, describe spatial malaria clustering and investigate for malaria risk factors among health-centre-presumed malaria cases and their

  9. Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jidong; Li, Ying; Li, Ning; Shi, Peijun

    2018-01-01

    The extent of economic losses due to a natural hazard and disaster depends largely on the spatial distribution of asset values in relation to the hazard intensity distribution within the affected area. Given that statistical data on asset value are collected by administrative units in China, generating spatially explicit asset exposure maps remains a key challenge for rapid postdisaster economic loss assessment. The goal of this study is to introduce a top-down (or downscaling) approach to disaggregate administrative-unit level asset value to grid-cell level. To do so, finding the highly correlated "surrogate" indicators is the key. A combination of three data sets-nighttime light grid, LandScan population grid, and road density grid, is used as ancillary asset density distribution information for spatializing the asset value. As a result, a high spatial resolution asset value map of China for 2015 is generated. The spatial data set contains aggregated economic value at risk at 30 arc-second spatial resolution. Accuracy of the spatial disaggregation reflects redistribution errors introduced by the disaggregation process as well as errors from the original ancillary data sets. The overall accuracy of the results proves to be promising. The example of using the developed disaggregated asset value map in exposure assessment of watersheds demonstrates that the data set offers immense analytical flexibility for overlay analysis according to the hazard extent. This product will help current efforts to analyze spatial characteristics of exposure and to uncover the contributions of both physical and social drivers of natural hazard and disaster across space and time. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Association of Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring parameters with the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Pikilidou, Maria; Katsanos, Aristeidis H; Stamatelopoulos, Kimon; Michas, Fotios; Lykka, Aikaterini; Zompola, Christina; Filippatou, Angeliki; Boviatsis, Efstathios; Voumvourakis, Konstantinos; Zakopoulos, Nikolaos; Manios, Efstathios

    2017-09-15

    The Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP) is a novel and reliable tool for estimating the 10-year probability for incident stroke in stroke-free individuals, while the predictive value of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) for first-ever and recurrent stroke has been well established. We sought to evaluate cross-sectionally the association of ABPM parameters with FSRP score in a large sample of 2343 consecutive stroke-free individuals (mean age: 56.0±12.9, 49.1% male) who underwent 24-hour ABPM. True hypertensives showed significantly higher FSRP (11.2±5.0) compared to the normotensives (8.2±5.0, pbest fitting model for predicting FSRP (R 2 =24.6%) on multiple linear regression analyses after adjustment for vascular risk factors not included in FSRP comprised the following parameters in descending order: 24-hour PP (β=0.349, p<0.001), daytime SBP variability (β=0.124, p<0.001), 24-hour HR variability (β=-0.091, p<0.001), mean 24-hour HR (β=-0.107, p<0.001), BMI (β=0.081, p<0.001) and dipping percentage (β=-0.063, p=0.001). 24-hour PP and daytime SBP variability are the two ABPM parameters that were more strongly associated with FSRP-score. Reverse dippers had the highest FSRP among all dipping status profiles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Adaptation to the Spanish population of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) and psychometric properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Calderón, Fermín; Díaz-Batanero, Carmen; Rojas-Tejada, Antonio J; Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; Lozano-Rojas, Óscar M

    2017-07-14

    The identification of different personality risk profiles for substance misuse is useful in preventing substance-related problems. This study aims to test the psychometric properties of a new version of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) for Spanish college students. Cross-sectional study with 455 undergraduate students from four Spanish universities. A new version of the SURPS, adapted to the Spanish population, was administered with the Beck Hopelessness Scale, the UPPS-P Impulsive Behavior Scale, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Internal consistency reliability ranged between 0.652 and 0.806 for the four SURPS subscales, while reliability estimated by split-half coefficients varied from 0.686 to 0.829. The estimated test-retest reliability ranged between 0.733 and 0.868. The expected four-factor structure of the original scale was replicated. As evidence of convergent validity, we found that the SURPS subscales were significantly associated with other conceptually-relevant personality scales and significantly associated with alcohol use measures in theoretically-expected ways. This SURPS version may be a useful instrument for measuring personality traits related to vulnerability to substance use and misuse when targeting personality with preventive interventions.

  12. Lipid profile and cardiovascular risk in anorexia nervosa; the effect of nutritional treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jáuregui-Garrido, B; Bolaños-Ríos, P; Santiago-Fernández, M J; Jaúregui-Lobera, I

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the lipid profile in patients with anorexia nervosa (AN), and the changes with refeeding. The sample comprised 102 AN outpatients (mean age 22.32 ± 3.17). Blood tests, after 12-hour overnight fast, were performed before refeeding (M(0)) and after weight restoration (M(1)). Total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoproteins (HDL), low-density lipoproteins (LDL) and triglycerides (TRG) were determined and the following cardiovascular risk markers were calculated: LDL/HDL and TC/HDL ratios. These cut-off points were considered: TC 40 mg/dl; LDL case of TC (p < 0.05) as well as between LDL/HDL(0) and LDL/HDL(1) (p < 0.05) and between TC/HDL(0) and TC/HDL(1) (p < 0.01). Significant differences were found between HDL(0) and HDL(1) (p < 0.01) and between TRG(0) and TRG(1) (p < 0.01). Significant and negative associations between BMI(0) and TC(0) (r = -0.331; p < 0.05) and between TRG(0) and HDL(0) (r = -0.387; p < 0.05) were found. The association between TRG(1) and LDL(1) was significant and positive. Weight restoration tends to decrease the TC/HDL and LDL/HDL ratios despite a considerable percentage of patients maintain scores on the different variables of the lipid profile usually considered at risk.

  13. Spatial analysis and risk mapping of Fasciola hepatica infection in dairy herds in Ireland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaos Selemetas

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fasciolosis is generally a subclinical infection of dairy cows and can cause marked economic losses. This study investigated the prevalence and spatial distribution of fasciolosis in dairy cow herds in Ireland using an in-house antibodydetection enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay applied to bulk tank milk (BTM samples collected during the autumn of 2012. A total of 5,116 BTM samples were collected from 4,602 different herds, with 514 farmers submitting BTM samples in two consecutive months. Analysis of the BTM samples showed that 82% (n = 3,764 of the dairy herds had been exposed to Fasciola hepatica. A total of 108 variables, including averaged climatic data for the period 1981-2010 and contemporary meteorological data for the year 2012, such as soil, subsoil, land cover and habitat maps, were investigated for a possible role as predictor of fasciolosis. Using mainly climatic variables as the major predictors, a model of the predicted risk of fasciolosis was created by Random Forest modelling that had 95% sensitivity and 100% specificity. The most important predictors in descending order of importance were: average of annual total number of rain-days for the period 1981-2010, total rainfall during September, winter and autumn of 2012, average of annual total number of wet-days for the period 1981- 2010 and annual mean temperature of 2012. The findings of this study confirm the high prevalence of fasciolosis in Irish dairy herds and suggest that specific weather and environmental risk factors support a robust and precise distribution model.

  14. When's dinner? Does timing of dinner affect the cardiometabolic risk profiles of South-Asian Canadians at risk for diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandhu, S K; Tang, T S

    2017-04-01

    To explore the relationship between the time dinner is consumed (dinnertime or timing of dinner) and cardiometabolic risk factors among South-Asian Canadians at risk for diabetes. We recruited 432 South-Asian adults affiliated with Sikh and Hindu Temples in Metro Vancouver. Participants deemed to be at risk of diabetes underwent a clinical and behavioural assessment. Dinnertime was measured via self-report. Clinical endpoints included HbA 1c , apolipoprotein, blood pressure, weight, BMI and waist circumference. The mean age of participants was 65 years and 59% were male. Dinnertime was categorized into three groups: early (before 18:00 h); average (18:00 to 20:00 h); and late (later than 20:00 h). Among the participants, 19% (n = 79), 44% (n = 187) and 37% (n = 157) reported early, average and late dinnertimes, respectively. Significant differences were found for dinnertime groups and years of residence in Canada, gender and employment. Compared with the early dinnertime group, the late dinnertime group lived in Canada for a shorter duration, comprised a higher proportion of males (66 vs 48%; P = 0.01) and were currently employed (37 vs 22%; P = 0.02). With regard to clinical endpoints, compared with the early dinnertime group, the late dinnertime group had lower systolic blood pressure (135.9 vs 131.7 mmHg; P = 0.03). After controlling for demographic characteristics, this difference was diminished. No significant differences were found between dinnertime and HbA 1c , apolipoprotein, diastolic blood pressure, weight, BMI and waist circumference. Findings suggest that, among this sample of South-Asian Canadians at risk of Type 2 diabetes, there was no association between timing of the evening meal and cardiometabolic profiles. © 2016 Diabetes UK.

  15. A framework for profiling the characteristics of risk governance in natural hazard contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, G.; Tweed, F.; Whittle, R.

    2014-01-01

    Over recent decades there have been moves away from traditional forms of government towards broader practices of "governance". These moves are as relevant to the handling of natural hazards as they are to other societal concerns. Key characteristics of such changes include the emergence of multi-level governance processes, shifts away from the exercise of centralised authority towards the involvement and collaboration of a multiplicity of actors, the creation of new forms of authority and control, and changing distributions of responsibilities between the state and other actors. However, the extent to which these shifts have taken place across the varied national contexts in Europe and can be observed specifically in relation to the governance of natural hazards is not at all clear. Such developments may also be evaluated in different ways; where some might see progressive reforms, others might see damaging undermining of established arrangements. In this paper, we propose a risk governance profiling framework that can be used to draw out the key characteristics of the ways in which natural hazards are governed in a particular governance setting. The framework can be flexibly applied in relation to a specific hazard and national, regional or local context, and enables qualitative profiling across a spectrum of eight key governance characteristics. Past trends and likely future changes can also be represented. We discuss the formulation of this framework as well as giving examples of profiles for different hazards in different parts of Europe. We suggest ways in which comparisons can be made between governance profiles, providing a stimulus and focus for debate and discussion around the trends of change in governance practice that have been, and are continuing, to take place.

  16. Pathway index models for construction of patient-specific risk profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eng, Kevin H; Wang, Sijian; Bradley, William H; Rader, Janet S; Kendziorski, Christina

    2013-04-30

    Statistical methods for variable selection, prediction, and classification have proven extremely useful in moving personalized genomics medicine forward, in particular, leading to a number of genomic-based assays now in clinical use for predicting cancer recurrence. Although invaluable in individual cases, the information provided by these assays is limited. Most often, a patient is classified into one of very few groups (e.g., recur or not), limiting the potential for truly personalized treatment. Furthermore, although these assays provide information on which individuals are at most risk (e.g., those for which recurrence is predicted), they provide no information on the aberrant biological pathways that give rise to the increased risk. We have developed an approach to address these limitations. The approach models a time-to-event outcome as a function of known biological pathways, identifies important genomic aberrations, and provides pathway-based patient-specific assessments of risk. As we demonstrate in a study of ovarian cancer from The Cancer Genome Atlas project, the patient-specific risk profiles are powerful and efficient characterizations useful in addressing a number of questions related to identifying informative patient subtypes and predicting survival. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Dyslipidemia and cardiovascular disease risk profiles of patients attending an HIV treatment clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhou DT

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Danai Tavonga Zhou,1,2 Vitaris Kodogo,1 Kudzai Fortunate Vongai Chokuona,1 Exnevia Gomo,1 Olav Oektedalen,3 Babill Stray-Pedersen21Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, College of Health Sciences, University of Zimbabwe, Avondale, Zimbabwe; 2Institute of Clinical Medicine, University in Oslo, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway; 3Department of Infectious Diseases, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, NorwayAbstract: The chronic inflammation induced by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV contributes to increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD in HIV-infected individuals. HIV-infected patients generally benefit from being treated with antiretroviral drugs, but some antiretroviral agents have side effects, such as dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia. There is general consensus that antiretroviral drugs induce a long-term risk of CHD, although the levels of that risk are somewhat controversial. The intention of this cross-sectional study was to describe the lipid profile and the long-term risk of CHD among HIV-positive outpatients at an HIV treatment clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe. Two hundred and fifteen patients were investigated (females n=165, mean age 39.8 years; males n=50; mean age 42.0 years. Thirty of the individuals were antiretroviral-naïve and 185 had been on antiretroviral therapy (ART for a mean 3.9±3.4 years. All participants had average lipid and glucose values within normal ranges, but there was a small difference between the ART and ART- for total cholesterol (TC and high-density lipoprotein (HDL.Those on a combination of D4T or ZDV/NVP/3TC and PI-based ART were on average oldest and had the highest TC levels. Framingham risk showed 1.4% prevalence of high CHD risk within the next ten years. After univariate analysis age, sex, TC/HDL ratio, HDL, economic earnings and systolic BP were associated with medium to high risk of CHD. After multivariate regression analysis and adjusting for age or sex only age, sex and economic earnings

  18. Lipid profiles and ischemic stroke risk: variations by sex within racial/ethnic groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gezmu, Tefera; Schneider, Dona; Demissie, Kitaw; Lin, Yong; Giordano, Christine; Gizzi, Martin S

    2014-01-01

    Evidence implicates lipid abnormalities as important but modifiable risk factors for stroke. This study assesses whether hypercholesterolemia can be used to predict the risk for etiologic subtypes of ischemic stroke between sexes within racial/ethnic groups. Data elements related to stroke risk, diagnosis, and outcomes were abstracted from the medical records of 3,290 acute stroke admissions between 2006 and 2010 at a regional stroke center. Sex comparison within racial/ethnic groups revealed that South Asian and Hispanic men had a higher proportion of ischemic stroke than women, while the inverse was true for Whites and African Americans (P=0.0014). All women, except South Asian women, had higher mean plasma total cholesterol and higher blood circulating low-density lipoprotein levels (≥100 mg/dL) than men at the time of their admissions. The incidence of large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) was more common among women than men, except among Hispanics, where men tended to have higher incidences. A regression analysis that considered patients diagnosed with either LAA or small-artery occlusion etiologic subtype as the outcomes and high-density lipoproteins and triglycerides as predictors showed inconsistent associations between lipid profiles and the incidence of these subtypes between the sexes within racial/ethnic groups. In conclusion, our investigation suggests that women stroke patients may be at increased risk for stroke etiologic subtype LAA than men. Although the higher prevalence of stroke risk factors examined in this study predicts the increase in the incidence of the disease, lack of knowledge/awareness and lack of affordable treatments for stroke risk factors among women and immigrants/non-US-born subpopulations may explain the observed associations.

  19. Association between traditional clinical high-risk features and gene expression profile classification in uveal melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Brandon T; Kim, Ryan S; Bretana, Maria E; Kegley, Eric; Schefler, Amy C

    2018-02-01

    To evaluate the association between traditional clinical high-risk features of uveal melanoma patients and gene expression profile (GEP). This was a retrospective, single-center, case series of patients with uveal melanoma. Eighty-three patients met inclusion criteria for the study. Patients were examined for the following clinical risk factors: drusen/retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) changes, vascularity on B-scan, internal reflectivity on A-scan, subretinal fluid (SRF), orange pigment, apical tumor height/thickness, and largest basal dimensions (LBD). A novel point system was created to grade the high-risk clinical features of each tumor. Further analyses were performed to assess the degree of association between GEP and each individual risk factor, total clinical risk score, vascularity, internal reflectivity, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor stage classification, apical tumor height/thickness, and LBD. Of the 83 total patients, 41 were classified as GEP class 1A, 17 as class 1B, and 25 as class 2. The presence of orange pigment, SRF, low internal reflectivity and vascularity on ultrasound, and apical tumor height/thickness ≥ 2 mm were not statistically significantly associated with GEP class. Lack of drusen/RPE changes demonstrated a trend toward statistical association with GEP class 2 compared to class 1A/1B. LBD and advancing AJCC stage was statistically associated with higher GEP class. In this cohort, AJCC stage classification and LBD were the only clinical features statistically associated with GEP class. Clinicians should use caution when inferring the growth potential of melanocytic lesions solely from traditional funduscopic and ultrasonographic risk factors without GEP data.

  20. Pro-inflammatory fatty acid profile and colorectal cancer risk: A Mendelian randomisation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May-Wilson, Sebastian; Sud, Amit; Law, Philip J; Palin, Kimmo; Tuupanen, Sari; Gylfe, Alexandra; Hänninen, Ulrika A; Cajuso, Tatiana; Tanskanen, Tomas; Kondelin, Johanna; Kaasinen, Eevi; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Eriksson, Johan G; Rissanen, Harri; Knekt, Paul; Pukkala, Eero; Jousilahti, Pekka; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Palotie, Aarno; Renkonen-Sinisalo, Laura; Lepistö, Anna; Böhm, Jan; Mecklin, Jukka-Pekka; Al-Tassan, Nada A; Palles, Claire; Farrington, Susan M; Timofeeva, Maria N; Meyer, Brian F; Wakil, Salma M; Campbell, Harry; Smith, Christopher G; Idziaszczyk, Shelley; Maughan, Timothy S; Fisher, David; Kerr, Rachel; Kerr, David; Passarelli, Michael N; Figueiredo, Jane C; Buchanan, Daniel D; Win, Aung K; Hopper, John L; Jenkins, Mark A; Lindor, Noralane M; Newcomb, Polly A; Gallinger, Steven; Conti, David; Schumacher, Fred; Casey, Graham; Aaltonen, Lauri A; Cheadle, Jeremy P; Tomlinson, Ian P; Dunlop, Malcolm G; Houlston, Richard S

    2017-10-01

    While dietary fat has been established as a risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC), associations between fatty acids (FAs) and CRC have been inconsistent. Using Mendelian randomisation (MR), we sought to evaluate associations between polyunsaturated (PUFA), monounsaturated (MUFA) and saturated FAs (SFAs) and CRC risk. We analysed genotype data on 9254 CRC cases and 18,386 controls of European ancestry. Externally weighted polygenic risk scores were generated and used to evaluate associations with CRC per one standard deviation increase in genetically defined plasma FA levels. Risk reduction was observed for oleic and palmitoleic MUFAs (OR OA  = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.65-0.92, P = 3.9 × 10 -3 ; OR POA  = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.15-0.84, P = 0.018). PUFAs linoleic and arachidonic acid had negative and positive associations with CRC respectively (OR LA  = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93-0.98, P = 3.7 × 10 -4 ; OR AA  = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.07, P = 1.7 × 10 -4 ). The SFA stearic acid was associated with increased CRC risk (OR SA  = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01-1.35, P = 0.041). Results from our analysis are broadly consistent with a pro-inflammatory FA profile having a detrimental effect in terms of CRC risk. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. Changes in Coronary Heart Disease Risk Profile of Adults with Intellectual Disabilities following a Physical Activity Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moss, S. J.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Regular physical activity is one of the modifiable risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD). With an increasing age profile and similar patterns of morbidity to the general population, persons with intellectual disabilities (ID) and their caregivers would benefit from data that indicate CHD risk factors. Knowledge of the CHD risk…

  2. Adverse outcomes in maternity care for women with a low risk profile in The Netherlands: a case series analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martijn, L.; Jacobs, A.; Amelink-Verburg, M.; Wentzel, R.; Buitendijk, S.; Wensing, M.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: This study aimed to perform a structural analysis of determinants of risk of critical incidents in care for women with a low risk profile at the start of pregnancy with a view on improving patient safety. METHODS: We included 71 critical incidents in primary midwifery care and subsequent

  3. [Adverse outcomes in maternity care for women with a low risk profile in The Netherlands: a case series analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martijn, L.M.; Jacobs, A.; Amelink-Verburg, M.P.; Wentzel, R.; Buitendijk, S.E.; Wensing, M.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: This study aimed to perform a structural analysis of determinants of risk of critical incidents in care for women with a low risk profile at the start of pregnancy with a view on improving patient safety. METHODS: We included 71 critical incidents in primary midwifery care and subsequent

  4. Language profiles of monolingual and bilingual Finnish preschool children at risk for language impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westman, Martin; Korkman, Marit; Mickos, Annika; Byring, Roger

    2008-01-01

    A large proportion of children are exposed to more than one language, yet research on simultaneous bilingualism has been relatively sparse. Traditionally, there has been concern that bilingualism may aggravate language difficulties of children with language impairment. However, recent studies have not found specific language impairment (SLI) or language-related problems to be increased by bilingualism. The topic of bilingualism and its effects has high actuality in Finland, where increasing numbers of children in the country's 6% Swedish-speaking minority grow up in bilingual families, where one parent's primary language is Swedish and the other's Finnish. The present study aimed at exploring the influence of such bilingualism on the language profiles of children from this population at risk for language impairment (LI). Participants were recruited from a language screening of 339 children from kindergartens with instruction only in Swedish, from the Swedish-speaking parts of Finland. Of these children, 33 (9.7%) were defined as a Risk Group for LI, whereas 48 non-risk children were randomly selected to form a control group. When subdividing the children according to home language, 35 were found to be monolingual, Swedish-speaking, and 46 were Swedish-Finnish bilingual. The children underwent neuropsychological assessment during their preschool year. Assessment methods included subtests from the Wechsler Primary and Preschool Scale of Intelligence - Revised and the NEPSY Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment. A repeated-measures multiple analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) showed a significant effect of risk of LI on the NEPSY language scores. The effect of home language was not significant and there was no interaction between home language and risk for LI. Non-verbal IQ was controlled for. Across groups, bilingual children scored lower than monolingual children only on measures of vocabulary and sentence repetition. Although a slight general cost of

  5. Spatial analysis of environment and population at risk of natural gas fracking in the state of Pennsylvania, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qingmin

    2015-05-15

    Hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, has been increasing exponentially across the United States, which holds the largest known shale gas reserves in the world. Studies have found that the high-volume horizontal hydraulic fracturing process (HVHFP) threatens water resources, harms air quality, changes landscapes, and damages ecosystems. However, there is minimal research focusing on the spatial study of environmental and human risks of HVHFP, which is necessary for state and federal governments to administer, regulate, and assess fracking. Integrating GIS and spatial kernel functions, we study the presently operating fracking wells across the state of Pennsylvania (PA), which is the main part of the current hottest Marcellus Shale in US. We geographically process the location data of hydraulic fracturing wells, 2010 census block data, urbanized region data, railway data, local road data, open water data, river data, and wetland data for the state of PA. From this we develop a distance based risk assessment in order to understand the environmental and urban risks. We generate the surface data of fracking well intensity and population intensity by integrating spatial dependence, semivariogram modeling, and a quadratic kernel function. The surface data of population risk generated by the division of fracking well intensity and population intensity provide a novel insight into the local and regional regulation of hydraulic fracturing activities in terms of environmental and health related risks due to the proximity of fracking wells. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. A 3D analysis of spatial relationship between geological structure and groundwater profile around Kobe City, Japan: based on ARCGIS 3D Analyst.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibahara, A.; Tsukamoto, H.; Kazahaya, K.; Morikawa, N.; Takahashi, M.; Takahashi, H.; Yasuhara, M.; Ohwada, M.; Oyama, Y.; Inamura, A.; Handa, H.; Nakama, J.

    2008-12-01

    Kobe city is located on the northern side of Osaka sedimentary basin, Japan, containing 1,000-2,000 m thick Quaternary sediments. After the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake (January 17, 1995), a number of geological and geophysical surveys were conducted in this region. Then high-temperature anomaly of groundwater accompanied with high Cl concentration was detected along fault systems in this area. In addition, dissolved He in groundwater showed nearly upper mantle-like 3He/4He ratio, although there were no Quaternary volcanic activities in this region. Some recent studies have assumed that these groundwater profiles are related with geological structure because some faults and joints can function as pathways for groundwater flow, and mantle-derived water can upwell through the fault system to the ground surface. To verify these hypotheses, we established 3D geological and hydrological model around Osaka sedimentary basin. Our primary goal is to analyze spatial relationship between geological structure and groundwater profile. In the study region, a number of geological and hydrological datasets, such as boring log data, seismic profiling data, groundwater chemical profile, were reported. We converted these datasets to meshed data on the GIS, and plotted in the three dimensional space to visualize spatial distribution. Furthermore, we projected seismic profiling data into three dimensional space and calculated distance between faults and sampling points, using Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) scripts. All 3D models are converted into VRML format, and can be used as a versatile dataset on personal computer. This research project has been conducted under the research contract with the Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization (JNES).

  7. Poultry, pig and the risk of BSE following the feed ban in France--a spatial analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrial, David; Calavas, Didier; Jarrige, Nathalie; Ducrot, Christian

    2005-01-01

    A spatial analysis was carried out in order to analyse the reason why the risk of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) was spatially heterogeneous in France, during the period following the feed ban of Meat and Bone Meal to cattle. The hypothesis of cross-contamination between cattle feedstuff and monogastric feedstuff, which was strongly suggested from previous investigations, was assessed, with the assumption that the higher the pig or poultry density is in a given area, the higher the risk of cross-contamination and cattle infection might be. The data concerned the 467 BSE cases born in France after the ban of meat and bone meal (July 1990) and detected between July 1st, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance system was optimal and not spatially biased. The disease mapping models were elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing (hierarchical approach) and covariates. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The main result was that the poultry density did not significantly influence the risk of BSE whereas the pig density was significantly associated with an increase in the risk of 2.4% per 10 000 pigs. The areas with a significant pig effect were located in regions with a high pig density as well as a high ratio of pigs to cattle. Despite the absence of a global effect of poultry density on the BSE risk, some areas had a significant poultry effect and the risk was better explained in some others when considering both pig and poultry densities. These findings were in agreement with the hypothesis of cross-contamination, which could take place at the feedstuff factory, during the shipment of food or on the farm. Further studies are needed to more precisely explore how the cross-contamination happened.

  8. Characterization of pharmaceutically active compounds in Dongting Lake, China: Occurrence, chiral profiling and environmental risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ruixue; Wang, Bin; Lu, Shaoyong; Zhang, Yizhe; Yin, Lina; Huang, Jun; Deng, Shubo; Wang, Yujue; Yu, Gang

    2016-07-01

    Twenty commonly used pharmaceuticals including eight chiral drugs were investigated in Dongting Lake, China. The contamination level was relatively low on a global scale. Twelve pharmaceuticals were identified. The most abundant compound was caffeine followed by diclofenac, DEET, mefenamic acid, fluoxetine, ibuprofen and carbamazepine with mean concentrations from 2.0 to 80.8ngL(-1). Concentrations between East and West Dongting Lake showed spatial difference, with the West Dongting Lake less polluted. The relatively high ratio of caffeine versus carbamazepine (over 50) may indicate there was possible direct discharge of domestic wastewater into the lake. This is the first study presenting a survey allowing for comprehensive analysis of multiclass achiral and chiral pharmaceuticals including beta-blockers, antidepressants and anti-inflammatory drugs in freshwater lake. The enantiomeric compositions presented racemic to weakly enantioselective, with the highest enantiomeric fraction (EF) of 0.63 for fluoxetine. Meanwhile, venlafaxine was identified and evaluated the environment risk in surface water in China for the first time. The results of risk assessment suggested that fluoxetine, venlafaxine and diclofenac acid might pose a significant risk to aquatic organisms in Dongting Lake. The resulting data will be useful to enrich the research of emerging pollutants in freshwater lake and stereochemistry for environment investigations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Accuracy of non-fasting lipid profile for the assessment of lipoprotein coronary risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fatima, S.; Ijaz, A.; Sharif, T.; Khan, D.A.; Siddique, A.

    2016-01-01

    To determine the diagnostic accuracy of non-fasting lipid profile in the diagnosis of hyperlipidemia, taking fasting lipid profile as gold standard, in adult population. Study Design: Cross sectional validation study. Place and Duration of Study: Department of chemical pathology and endocrinology, armed forces institute of pathology, rawalpindi, from july to december 2014. Methodology: One hundred seventy five adult patients coming for fasting lipid prodile were included; their non-fasting samples were taken on the next day. patients on anti-cholesterol treatment and indoor patients were excluded. Total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein-cholestrol (HDL-C), and triglycerides were measured by direct enzymatic calorimetric method by modular p-800 rate. Low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) was calculated by friendewald's formula but when triglyceride was greater than 4.5mol/l, then LDL-C was measured directly by homogenous enzymatic colorimetric method. non-fasting lipid profile had 93% specificity, 51% sensitivity, 94% positive predictive value and 49% negative predictive value and 65% accuracy with 7.28 positive likehood ratio and 0.52 negative likelihood ratio. Non fasting TC and non-HDLC were significantly higher than fasting TC and non-HDL-c by mean difference of 0.2 mmol/l each with p=0.001 and p=0.004, respectively. fasting and on fasting HDLC-are comparable to each other with mean difference of 0.01 mmol/l (p=0.745) Receiver operating curve (ROC) of non fasting non HDLC-C showed 0.84 (95% Cl (0.738-0.870), p=0.000) area under the curve (AUC) indicating that it was a significant test for ruling out hyperlipdemia. Bland-altmann plot showed a significant difference between non fasting, non HDLC-C and fasting LDL-C and non fasting, non-HDL-C -0.087540 with base -0.00109; therefore, these cannot be alternative to each other. Conclusion: Diagnostic accuracy of non-fasting lipid profile was found significantly higher than fasting lipid profile (p=0

  10. Cardiovascular risk profile of patients with peripheral arterial occlusive disease during nilotinib therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondon-Guitton, E; Combret, S; Pérault-Pochat, M C; Stève-Dumont, M; Bagheri, H; Huguet, F; Despas, F; Pathak, A; Montastruc, J L

    2016-08-01

    Over the past few years, data have suggested that severe peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD) is associated with nilotinib exposure. However, the characteristics of this adverse drug reaction are poorly described since its frequency is low. As far as we know, no study using a spontaneous adverse drug reactions reporting system was performed to describe the characteristics of cases of PAOD related to nilotinib. We performed a study to describe the cardiovascular risk profile of cases of PAOD in patients treated with nilotinib spontaneously reported to the French Pharmacovigilance Database (FPVD). We selected all cases of "vascular disorders," as the System Organ Class in MedDRA®, in which nilotinib was "suspected" and recorded in the French Pharmacovigilance Database between 2007 and 21 October 2014. We then identified cases of PAOD with a Low Level Term and through a detailed summary of the clinical description. We identified 25 cases of POAD. Most of the patients were older than 60 years (84 %) or had another cardiovascular risk factor such as hypercholesterolemia, arterial hypertension, overweight/obesity, smoking, or diabetes mellitus (72 %). Females (13 cases) and males (12 cases) were equally represented, but the presence of cardiovascular risk factors was more frequent in females than in males. The mean time from initiation of nilotinib to PAOD onset was 24 months and was significantly longer in patients aged less than 60 years compared with those aged over 60 years (33.8 ± 24.6 months vs. 22.6 ± 17.5 months, p = 0.002). Pre-existing cardiovascular risk factors, especially diabetes mellitus, also seem to accelerate its occurrence. The FPVD is a useful tool in describing the cardiovascular risk profile of patients with PAOD during nilotinib exposure. Physicians have to be particularly vigilant in patients older than 60 years of age; in patients younger than 60 years of age, long-term surveillance has to be maintained.

  11. Risk factor profile by etiological subtype of ischemic stroke in the young.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffre, Aude; Ruidavets, Jean Bernard; Calviere, Lionel; Viguier, Alain; Ferrieres, Jean; Larrue, Vincent

    2014-05-01

    Studies of risk factors for ischemic stroke in the young have generally considered ischemic stroke as a whole. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the association of traditional cardiovascular risk factors with etiological subtypes of ischemic stroke in young adults. Retrospective review of data from patients aged 16-54 years consecutively treated for first-ever ischemic stroke in an academic stroke unit. Definite causes of stroke were classified using the ASCO (A for atherothrombosis, S for small vessel disease, C for cardiac source, O for other cause) classification system. We used multinomial logistic regression analysis to evaluate associations of age, gender, smoking, hypertension, diabetes and blood lipids with each etiological subtype. A total of 400 patients were included: 244 men (61.1%), 156 women (38.9%); mean age (SD) 44.5 (8.5) years. A definite cause of stroke could be identified in 202 (50.5%) patients. Definite causes of stroke included: atherothrombosis, 72 (18.0%) patients; cardioembolism, 37 (9.25%) patients; small vessel disease, 28 (7.0%) patients; other definite cause, 65 (16.25%) patients including 44 patients with carotid or vertebral artery dissection. Atherothrombosis was associated with age, smoking, diabetes, hypertension and low HDL-cholesterol. Small vessel disease was associated with age and hypertension. Cardioembolism was associated with age. The risk factor profile differs between etiological subtypes of ischemic stroke in young adults. Our findings emphasize the impact of smoking, diabetes, hypertension and low HDL-cholesterol as risk factors for atherothrombosis, and of hypertension as a risk factor for small vessel disease in young adults. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Nut consumption, serum fatty acid profile and estimated coronary heart disease risk in type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishi, S K; Kendall, C W C; Bazinet, R P; Bashyam, B; Ireland, C A; Augustin, L S A; Blanco Mejia, S; Sievenpiper, J L; Jenkins, D J A

    2014-08-01

    Nut consumption has been associated with decreased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and type 2 diabetes which has been largely attributed to their healthy fatty acid profile, yet this has not been ascertained. Therefore, we investigated the effect of nut consumption on serum fatty acid concentrations and how these relate to changes in markers of glycemic control and calculated CHD risk score in type 2 diabetes. 117 subjects with type 2 diabetes consumed one of three iso-energetic (mean 475 kcal/d) supplements for 12 weeks: 1. full-dose nuts (50-100 g/d); 2. half-dose nuts with half-dose muffins; and 3. full-dose muffins. In this secondary analysis, fatty acid concentrations in the phospholipid, triacylglycerol, free fatty acid, and cholesteryl ester fractions from fasting blood samples obtained at baseline and week 12 were analyzed using thin layer and gas chromatography. Full-dose nut supplementation significantly increased serum oleic acid (OA) and MUFAs compared to the control in the phospholipid fraction (OA: P = 0.036; MUFAs: P = 0.024). Inverse associations were found with changes in CHD risk versus changes in OA and MUFAs in the triacylglycerol (r = -0.256, P = 0.011; r = -0.228, P = 0.024, respectively) and phospholipid (r = -0.278, P = 0.006; r = -0.260, P = 0.010, respectively) fractions. In the cholesteryl ester fraction, change in MUFAs was inversely associated with markers of glycemic control (HbA1c: r = -0.250, P = 0.013; fasting blood glucose: r = -0.395, P consumption increased OA and MUFA content of the serum phospholipid fraction, which was inversely associated with CHD risk factors and 10-year CHD risk. NCT00410722, clinicaltrials.gov. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Spatial Variability in the Ratio of Interstellar Atomic Deuterium to Hydrogen. II. Observations toward γ2 Velorum and ζ Puppis by the Interstellar Medium Absorption Profile Spectrograph

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonneborn, George; Tripp, Todd M.; Ferlet, Roger; Jenkins, Edward B.; Sofia, U. J.; Vidal-Madjar, Alfred; Woźniak, Prezemysław R.

    2000-12-01

    High-resolution far-ultraviolet spectra of the early-type stars γ2 Vel and ζ Pup were obtained to measure the interstellar deuterium abundances in these directions. The observations were made with the Interstellar Medium Absorption Profile Spectrograph (IMAPS) during the ORFEUS-SPAS II mission in 1996. IMAPS spectra cover the wavelength range 930-1150 Å with λ/Δλ~80,000. The interstellar D I features are resolved and cleanly separated from interstellar H I in the Lyδ and Lyɛ profiles of both sight lines and also in the Lyγ profile of ζ Pup. The D I profiles were modeled using a velocity template derived from several N I lines in the IMAPS spectra recorded at higher signal-to-noise ratio. To find the best D I column density, we minimized χ2 for model D I profiles that included not only the N(D I) as a free parameter, but also the effects of several potential sources of systematic error, which were allowed to vary as free parameters. H I column densities were measured by analyzing Lyα absorption profiles in a large number of IUE high-dispersion spectra for each of these stars and applying this same χ2-minimization technique. Ultimately we found that D/H=2.18+0.36-0.31×10-5 for γ2 Vel and 1.42+0.25-0.23×10-5 for ζ Pup, values that contrast markedly with D/H derived in Paper I for δ Ori A (the stated errors are 90% confidence limits). Evidently, the atomic D/H ratio in the ISM, averaged over path lengths of 250-500 pc, exhibits significant spatial variability. Furthermore, the observed spatial variations in D/H do not appear to be anticorrelated with N/H, one measure of heavy-element abundances. We briefly discuss some hypotheses to explain the D/H spatial variability. Within the framework of standard big bang nucleosynthesis, the large value of D/H found toward γ2 Vel is equivalent to a cosmic baryon density of ΩBh2=0.023+/-0.002, which we regard as an upper limit since there is no correction for the destruction of deuterium in stars. This paper is

  14. Cardiovascular risk profile: Cross-sectional analysis of motivational determinants, physical fitness and physical activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiers Henri

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular risk factors are associated with physical fitness and, to a lesser extent, physical activity. Lifestyle interventions directed at enhancing physical fitness in order to decrease the risk of cardiovascular diseases should be extended. To enable the development of effective lifestyle interventions for people with cardiovascular risk factors, we investigated motivational, social-cognitive determinants derived from the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB and other relevant social psychological theories, next to physical activity and physical fitness. Methods In the cross-sectional Utrecht Police Lifestyle Intervention Fitness and Training (UP-LIFT study, 1298 employees (aged 18 to 62 were asked to complete online questionnaires regarding social-cognitive variables and physical activity. Cardiovascular risk factors and physical fitness (peak VO2 were measured. Results For people with one or more cardiovascular risk factors (78.7% of the total population, social-cognitive variables accounted for 39% (p In addition to the prediction of intention to engage in physical activity and physical active behavior, we explored the impact of the intensity of physical activity. The intentsity of physical activity was only significantly related to physical active behavior (beta = .253, p 2 = .06, p 2 = .23, p For people with one or more cardiovascular risk factors, 39.9% had positive intentions to engage in physical activity and were also physically active, and 10.5% had a low intentions but were physically active. 37.7% had low intentions and were physically inactive, and about 11.9% had high intentions but were physically inactive. Conclusions This study contributes to our ability to optimize cardiovascular risk profiles by demonstrating an important association between physical fitness and social-cognitive variables. Physical fitness can be predicted by physical active behavior as well as by self-efficacy and the intensity of

  15. Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in northern Angola

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    Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Anaemia is known to have an impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modelling approaches. We aimed to (i quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs in anaemia endemicity; and (ii develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data for children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15, S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variations in these infections. Malnutrition, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6% and 9.8% of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria and S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86% were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anaemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control programme with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infections.

  16. Has the economic crisis led to a new risk profile for international travellers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roure, S; Pérez-Quílez, O; Vallès, X; Martínez-Cuevas, O; Sabrià, M; Valerio, L

    2015-11-01

    The economic world crisis has led to the migration of European workers to developing countries with a high incidence of infectious diseases. The objective of this study was to assess whether this context has produced an increase in the risks to international travellers for work reasons (TWR). Observational, retrospective study. The study population included TWR who were attended before travelling at an International Health Unit in the year 2007 (the year before the initiation of the European crisis) and in the year 2012 (when the structural crisis was established). A comparative socioeconomic analysis was performed as well as an analysis of the risk factors present in both groups. In 2007 and 2012 a total of 9,197 travellers were attended. Of these, there were 344 TWR (3.4%); 101 TWR (2.8%) in 2007 and 243 TWR (4.5%) in 2012 (pcrisis, there was a change in the profile of TWR. Their number has increased significantly, as has the proportion who present risk factors for contracting imported diseases. The International Health Units should adapt to these new circumstances and adopt preventive measures for this population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

  17. Risk Factors Profile of Shoulder Dystocia in Oman: A Case Control Study

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    Maha M. Al-Khaduri

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study aimed to assess the risk factor profile of shoulder dystocia and associated neonatal complications in Oman, a developing Arab country. Methods: A retrospective case-control study was conducted among 111 cases with dystocia and 111 controls, identified during 1994-2006 period in a tertiary care hospital in Oman. Controls were randomly selected among women who did not have dystocia, and were matched to cases on the day of delivery. Data related to potential risk factors, delivery, and obstetric complications were collected. Results: Dystocia was significantly associated with older maternal age, higher parity, larger BMI, diabetes, and previous record of dystocia. In addition, dystocia was associated more with vacuum and forceps deliveries. Routine traction (51% was the most used manoeuvre. Among dystocia cases, 13% were associated with fetal complications of which Erb’s Palsy was the most prevalent (79%. Conclusion: Our finding of significant associations with risk factors lays out the ground to develop a predictability index for shoulder dystocia, which would help in making it preventable. Further prospective studies are required to confirm the obtained results.

  18. Primary selection into shift work and change of cardiovascular risk profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Mei; Germann, Christina; Lang, Stefan; Oberlinner, Christoph

    2015-05-01

    A potential "healthy shift worker effect" may bias the studied effect of shift work on health. The observed differences among shift and day workers in health behavior and health outcomes can be caused by: (i) primary selection, (ii) the influence from the shift work-related environment, and (iii) the impact of shift work. We aimed to study these potential sources. A cohort of 4754 male trainees who had finished their professional training and started their career in production in a chemical company between 1995 and 2012 was identified. Among them, 1348 (28%) were involved in rotating shift work and 3406 (72%) in day work. Information on health behavior and risk factors for cardiovascular diseases was retrieved from the medical examinations. This information was then compared (i) at the beginning of training, (ii) at the end of training, and (iii) 3 years after the employment, in relation to the working time. At the beginning of the training, the prevalence of smokers was higher among future shift workers (26% versus 21%), from 1995 to 2012. During the training and the first three years of employment, a marginal decline of systolic blood pressure and an elevation of triglyceride were related with shift work. No difference was found with respect to other risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. Our findings do not support a primary selection in favor of shift workers. An impact of shift work on the risk profile of cardiovascular diseases was not indicated in the observation period.

  19. Risk Factors Profile of Shoulder Dystocia in Oman: A Case Control Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Khaduri, Maha M.; Abudraz, Rania Mohammed; Al-Farsi, Yahya M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective This study aimed to assess the risk factor profile of shoulder dystocia and associated neonatal complications in Oman, a developing Arab country. Methods A retrospective case-control study was conducted among 111 cases with dystocia and 111 controls, identified during 1994-2006 period in a tertiary care hospital in Oman. Controls were randomly selected among women who did not have dystocia, and were matched to cases on the day of delivery. Data related to potential risk factors, delivery, and obstetric complications were collected. Results Dystocia was significantly associated with older maternal age, higher parity, larger BMI, diabetes, and previous record of dystocia. In addition, dystocia was associated more with vacuum and forceps deliveries. Routine traction (51%) was the most used manoeuvre. Among dystocia cases, 13% were associated with fetal complications of which Erb’s Palsy was the most prevalent (79%). Conclusion Our finding of significant associations with risk factors lays out the ground to develop a predictability index for shoulder dystocia, which would help in making it preventable. Further p rospective studies are required to confirm the obtained results. PMID:25337307

  20. Maternal depressive symptomatology in México: National prevalence, care, and population risk profiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipa de Castro

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This study estimates the prevalence of depressive symptomatology (DS in women with children younger than five years of age, examines detection and care rates and probabilities of developing DS based on specific risk profiles. Materials and methods. The sample consists of 7 187 women with children younger than five drawn from the Ensanut 2012. Results. DS prevalence is 19.91%, which means at least 4.6 million children live with mothers who experience depressive symptoms indicative of moderate to severe depression. Rates of detection (17.06% and care (15.19% for depression are low. DS is associated with violence (OR=2.34; IC95% 1.06-5.15, having ≥4 children, having a female baby, older age of the last child, low birth weight, food insecurity, and sexual debut menor que 15 years old (p menor que 0.01. Accumulated probability of DS, taking into consideration all risk factors measured, is 69.76%. It could be reduced to 13.21% through prevention efforts focused on eliminating violence, food insecurity, bias against having a female baby, and low birth weight. Conclusions. DS is a compelling public health problem in Mexico associated with a well-defined set of risk factors that warrant attention and timely detection at various levels of care.

  1. Disordered eating behaviors among transgender youth: Probability profiles from risk and protective factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Ryan J; Veale, Jaimie F; Saewyc, Elizabeth M

    2017-05-01

    Research has documented high rates of disordered eating for lesbian, gay, and bisexual youth, but prevalence and patterns of disordered eating among transgender youth remain unexplored. This is despite unique challenges faced by this group, including gender-related body image and the use of hormones. We explore the relationship between disordered eating and risk and protective factors for transgender youth. An online survey of 923 transgender youth (aged 14-25) across Canada was conducted, primarily using measures from existing youth health surveys. Analyses were stratified by gender identity and included logistic regressions with probability profiles to illustrate combinations of risk and protective factors for eating disordered behaviors. Enacted stigma (the higher rates of harassment and discrimination sexual minority youth experience) was linked to higher odds of reported past year binge eating and fasting or vomiting to lose weight, while protective factors, including family connectedness, school connectedness, caring friends, and social support, were linked to lower odds of past year disordered eating. Youth with the highest levels of enacted stigma and no protective factors had high probabilities of past year eating disordered behaviors. Our study found high prevalence of disorders. Risk for these behaviors was linked to stigma and violence exposure, but offset by social supports. Health professionals should assess transgender youth for disordered eating behaviors and supportive resources. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.(Int J Eat Disord 2017; 50:515-522). © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

  3. Cycling to work in Brazil: users profile, risk behaviors, and traffic accident occurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacchieri, Giancarlo; Barros, Aluísio J D; Dos Santos, Janaína V; Gigante, Denise P

    2010-07-01

    In 2006, we carried out a cross-sectional study in the urban area of Pelotas, Southern Brazil, with the aim of outlining the profile of bicycle commuters, analyzing their use of safety equipment and risk behaviors and the association between these variables and involvement in traffic accidents in the previous 12 months. This study was based on the baseline survey carried out prior to an educational intervention aimed at reducing accidents among cyclists. The sample included 1133 male subjects aged 20 years or more, and who used a bicycle for commuting. Crude and adjusted analyses were carried out using Poisson regression. We recorded a total of 152 reported traffic accidents in the 12 months preceding the interview, involving 10.8% of subjects. Most risk behaviors studied and the use of safety equipment showed no significant association with accidents. Only commuting by bicycle seven days per week, as opposed to five or six, and a combination of extremely imprudent behaviors such as zigzagging through traffic, riding after ingesting alcohol, and high-speed riding were found to be risk factors for accidents. Our findings suggest that in the context where the study was done (poor road signaling, limited policing, aggressive driving) changing cyclist behavior may not have substantial impact in terms of accident reduction before other road traffic interventions are implemented. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Genetic risk scores link body fat distribution with specific cardiometabolic profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendstrup, Mathilde; Sandholt, Camilla H; Andersson Galijatovic, Ehm Astrid

    2016-01-01

    , including fasting serum triglyceride (β = 0.98% mmol/L, P = 3.33 × 10(-) (8) ) and Matsuda index (β = -0.74%, P = 1.29 × 10(-) (4) ). No similar associations for Clusters 2 and 3 were found. The three clusters showed different patterns of association with waist circumference, hip circumference, and height......OBJECTIVE: Forty-nine known single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associating with body mass index (BMI)-adjusted waist-hip-ratio (WHR) (WHRadjBMI) were recently suggested to cluster into three groups with different associations to cardiometabolic traits. Genetic risk scores of the clusters...... risk scores and anthropometry and blood samples at fasting and during an oral glucose tolerance test were tested. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, and BMI. RESULTS: Cluster 1 associated with an increased risk of diabetes (HR = 1.05, P = 2.74 × 10(-) (4) ) and with a poor metabolic profile...

  5. Use of life course work-family profiles to predict mortality risk among US women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbath, Erika L; Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M Maria; Berkman, Lisa F

    2015-04-01

    We examined relationships between US women's exposure to midlife work-family demands and subsequent mortality risk. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work-family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work-family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work-family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years.

  6. Spatial Variation of Soil Lead in an Urban Community Garden: Implications for Risk-Based Sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugdalski, Lauren; Lemke, Lawrence D; McElmurry, Shawn P

    2014-01-01

    Soil lead pollution is a recalcitrant problem in urban areas resulting from a combination of historical residential, industrial, and transportation practices. The emergence of urban gardening movements in postindustrial cities necessitates accurate assessment of soil lead levels to ensure safe gardening. In this study, we examined small-scale spatial variability of soil lead within a 15 × 30 m urban garden plot established on two adjacent residential lots located in Detroit, Michigan, USA. Eighty samples collected using a variably spaced sampling grid were analyzed for total, fine fraction (less than 250 μm), and bioaccessible soil lead. Measured concentrations varied at sampling scales of 1-10 m and a hot spot exceeding 400 ppm total soil lead was identified in the northwest portion of the site. An interpolated map of total lead was treated as an exhaustive data set, and random sampling was simulated to generate Monte Carlo distributions and evaluate alternative sampling strategies intended to estimate the average soil lead concentration or detect hot spots. Increasing the number of individual samples decreases the probability of overlooking the hot spot (type II error). However, the practice of compositing and averaging samples decreased the probability of overestimating the mean concentration (type I error) at the expense of increasing the chance for type II error. The results reported here suggest a need to reconsider U.S. Environmental Protection Agency sampling objectives and consequent guidelines for reclaimed city lots where soil lead distributions are expected to be nonuniform. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Subsurface information for risk-sensitive urban spatial planning in Dhaka Metropolitan City, Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Günther, Andreas; Aziz Patwary, Mohammad Abdul; Bahls, Rebecca; Asaduzzaman, Atm; Ludwig, Rüdiger; Ashraful Kamal, Mohammad; Nahar Faruqa, Nurun; Jabeen, Sarwat

    2016-04-01

    Dhaka Metropolitan City (including Dhaka and five adjacent municipal areas) is one of the fastest developing urban regions in the world. Densely build-up areas in the developed metropolitan area of Dhaka City are subject to extensive restructuring as common six- or lower storied buildings are replaced by higher and heavier constructions. Additional stories are built on existing houses, frequently exceeding the allowable bearing pressure on the subsoil as supported by the foundations. In turn, newly developing city areas are projected in marshy terrains modified by extensive, largely unengineered landfills. In most areas, these terrains bear unfavorable building ground conditions within 30 meters. Within a collaborative technical cooperation project between Bangladesh and Germany, BGR supports GSB in the provision of geo-information for the Capital Development Authority (RAJUK). For general urban planning, RAJUK successively develops a detailed area plan (DAP) at scale 1 : 50000 for the whole Dhaka Metropolitan City area (approx. 1700 km2). Geo-information have not been considered in the present DAP. Within the project, geospatial information in form of a geomorphic map, a digital terrain model and a 3-D subsurface model covering the whole city area have been generated at a scale of 1 : 50000. An extensive engineering geological data base consisting of more than 2200 borehole data with associated Standard Penetration Testing (SPT) and lab data has been compiled. With the field testing (SPT) and engineering geological lab data, the 3-D subsurface model can be parameterized to derive important spatial subsurface information for urban planning like bearing capacity evaluations for different foundation designs or soil liquefaction potential assessments for specific earthquake scenarios. In conjunction with inundation potential evaluations for different flooding scenarios, comprehensive building ground suitability information can be derived to support risk

  8. Spatial distribution and risk factors of Brucellosis in Iberian wild ungulates

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    de la Fuente José

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of wildlife as a brucellosis reservoir for humans and domestic livestock remains to be properly established. The aim of this work was to determine the aetiology, apparent prevalence, spatial distribution and risk factors for brucellosis transmission in several Iberian wild ungulates. Methods A multi-species indirect immunosorbent assay (iELISA using Brucella S-LPS antigen was developed. In several regions having brucellosis in livestock, individual serum samples were taken between 1999 and 2009 from 2,579 wild bovids, 6,448 wild cervids and4,454 Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa, and tested to assess brucellosis apparent prevalence. Strains isolated from wild boar were characterized to identify the presence of markers shared with the strains isolated from domestic pigs. Results Mean apparent prevalence below 0.5% was identified in chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica, Iberian wild goat (Capra pyrenaica, and red deer (Cervus elaphus. Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus, fallow deer (Dama dama, mouflon (Ovis aries and Barbary sheep (Ammotragus lervia tested were seronegative. Only one red deer and one Iberian wild goat resulted positive in culture, isolating B. abortus biovar 1 and B. melitensis biovar 1, respectively. Apparent prevalence in wild boar ranged from 25% to 46% in the different regions studied, with the highest figures detected in South-Central Spain. The probability of wild boar being positive in the iELISA was also affected by age, age-by-sex interaction, sampling month, and the density of outdoor domestic pigs. A total of 104 bacterial isolates were obtained from wild boar, being all identified as B. suis biovar 2. DNA polymorphisms were similar to those found in domestic pigs. Conclusions In conclusion, brucellosis in wild boar is widespread in the Iberian Peninsula, thus representing an important threat for domestic pigs. By contrast, wild ruminants were not identified as a significant brucellosis reservoir for

  9. Spatial distribution of water erosion risk in a watershed with eucalyptus and Atlantic Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junior Cesar Avanzi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The process of water erosion occurs in watersheds throughout the world and it is strongly affected by anthropogenic influences. Thus, the knowledge of these processes is extremely necessary for planning of conservation efforts. This study was performed in an experimental forested watershed in order to predict the average potential annual soil loss by water erosion using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE and a Geographic Information System (GIS, and then compared with soil loss tolerance. All the USLE factors were generated in a distributed approach employing a GIS tool. The layers were multiplied in the GIS framework in order to predict soil erosion rates. Results showed that the average soil loss was 6.2 Mg ha-1 yr-1. Relative to soil loss tolerance, 83% of the area had an erosion rate lesser than the tolerable value. According to soil loss classes, 49% of the watershed had erosion less than 2.5 Mg ha-1 yr-1. However, about 8.7% of the watershed had erosion rates greater than 15 Mg ha-1 yr-1, being mainly related to Plinthosol soil class and roads, thus requiring special attention for the improvement of sustainable management practices for such areas. Eucalyptus cultivation was found to have soil loss greater than Atlantic Forest. Thus, an effort should be made to bring the erosion rates closer to the native forest. Implementation of the USLE model in a GIS framework was found to be a simple and useful tool for predicting the spatial variation of soil erosion risk and identifying critical areas for conservation efforts.

  10. Insomnia Phenotypes Based on Objective Sleep Duration in Adolescents: Depression Risk and Differential Behavioral Profiles

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    Julio Fernandez-Mendoza

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on previous studies on the role of objective sleep duration in predicting morbidity in individuals with insomnia, we examined the role of objective sleep duration in differentiating behavioral profiles in adolescents with insomnia symptoms. Adolescents from the Penn State Child Cohort (n = 397, ages 12–23, 54.7% male underwent a nine-hour polysomnography (PSG, clinical history, physical examination and psychometric testing, including the Child or Adult Behavior Checklist and Pediatric Behavior Scale. Insomnia symptoms were defined as a self-report of difficulty falling and/or staying asleep and objective “short” sleep duration as a PSG total sleep time ≤7 h. A significant interaction showed that objective short sleep duration modified the association of insomnia symptoms with internalizing problems. Consistently, adolescents with insomnia symptoms and short sleep duration were characterized by depression, rumination, mood dysregulation and social isolation, while adolescents with insomnia symptoms and normal sleep duration were characterized by rule-breaking and aggressive behaviors and, to a lesser extent, rumination. These findings indicate that objective sleep duration is useful in differentiating behavioral profiles among adolescents with insomnia symptoms. The insomnia with objective short sleep duration phenotype is associated with an increased risk of depression earlier in the lifespan than previously believed.

  11. Spatial analysis and mapping of malaria risk in Malawi using point-referenced prevalence of infection data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazembe Lawrence N

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current malaria control initiatives aim at reducing malaria burden by half by the year 2010. Effective control requires evidence-based utilisation of resources. Characterizing spatial patterns of risk, through maps, is an important tool to guide control programmes. To this end an analysis was carried out to predict and map malaria risk in Malawi using empirical data with the aim of identifying areas where greatest effort should be focussed. Methods Point-referenced prevalence of infection data for children aged 1–10 years were collected from published and grey literature and geo-referenced. The model-based geostatistical methods were applied to analyze and predict malaria risk in areas where data were not observed. Topographical and climatic covariates were added in the model for risk assessment and improved prediction. A Bayesian approach was used for model fitting and prediction. Results Bivariate models showed a significant association of malaria risk with elevation, annual maximum temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET. However in the prediction model, the spatial distribution of malaria risk was associated with elevation, and marginally with maximum temperature and PET. The resulting map broadly agreed with expert opinion about the variation of risk in the country, and further showed marked variation even at local level. High risk areas were in the low-lying lake shore regions, while low risk was along the highlands in the country. Conclusion The map provided an initial description of the geographic variation of malaria risk in Malawi, and might help in the choice and design of interventions, which is crucial for reducing the burden of malaria in Malawi.

  12. Lipid profiles and ischemic stroke risk: variations by sex within racial/ethnic groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gezmu T

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Tefera Gezmu,1 Dona Schneider,1 Kitaw Demissie,2 Yong Lin,2 Christine Giordano,3 Martin S Gizzi4 1Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, 2Rutgers School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Piscataway, NJ, 3Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, Newark, NJ, 4New Jersey Neuroscience Institute at JFK Medical Center and Seton Hall University, Edison, NJ, USA Abstract: Evidence implicates lipid abnormalities as important but modifiable risk factors for stroke. This study assesses whether hypercholesterolemia can be used to predict the risk for etiologic subtypes of ischemic stroke between sexes within racial/ethnic groups. Data elements related to stroke risk, diagnosis, and outcomes were abstracted from the medical records of 3,290 acute stroke admissions between 2006 and 2010 at a regional stroke center. Sex comparison within racial/ethnic groups revealed that South Asian and Hispanic men had a higher proportion of ischemic stroke than women, while the inverse was true for Whites and African Americans (P=0.0014. All women, except South Asian women, had higher mean plasma total cholesterol and higher blood circulating low-density lipoprotein levels (≥100 mg/dL than men at the time of their admissions. The incidence of large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA was more common among women than men, except among Hispanics, where men tended to have higher incidences. A regression analysis that considered patients diagnosed with either LAA or small-artery occlusion etiologic subtype as the outcomes and high-density lipoproteins and triglycerides as predictors showed inconsistent associations between lipid profiles and the incidence of these subtypes between the sexes within racial/ethnic groups. In conclusion, our investigation suggests that women stroke patients may be at increased risk for stroke etiologic subtype LAA than men. Although the higher prevalence of stroke

  13. Gender differences in risk profile and outcome of Middle Eastern patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarrah, Mohamad I; Hammoudeh, Ayman J; Al-Natour, Dalal B; Khader, Yousef S; Tabbalat, Ramzi A; Alhaddad, Imad A; Kullab, Susan M

    2017-02-01

    To determine the gender differences in cardiovascular risk profile and outcomes among patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods: In a prospective multicenter study of consecutive Middle Eastern patients managed with PCI from January 2013 to February 2014 in 12 tertiary care centers in Amman and Irbid, Jordan. Clinical and coronary angiographic features, and major cardiovascular events were assessed for both genders from hospital stay to 1 year. Results: Women comprised 20.6% of 2426 enrolled patients, were older (mean age 62.9 years versus 57.2 years), had higher prevalence of hypertension (81% versus 57%), diabetes (66% versus 44%), dyslipidemia (58% versus 46%), and obesity (44% versus 25%) compared with men, p less than 0.001. The PCI for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction was indicated for fewer women than men (23% versus 33%; p=0.001). Prevalence of single or multi-vessel coronary artery disease was similar in women and men. More women than men had major bleeding during hospitalization (2.2% versus 0.6%; p=0.003) and at one year (2.5% versus 0.9%; p=0.007). There were no significant differences between women and men in mortality (3.1% versus 1.7%) or stent thrombosis (2.1% versus 1.8%) at 1 year. Conclusion: Middle Eastern women undergoing PCI had worse baseline risk profile compared with men.Except for major bleeding, no gender differences in the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events were demonstrated.

  14. Task profile and risk of occupational hepatitis A infection in sewerage workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuebling, M; Hofmann, F

    2001-10-01

    The aim of the study was to assess to what extent parameters of task-related occupational exposure influence anti-hepatitis A virus (anti-HAV) seroprevalence in sewerage workers, using a new instrument for classification of exposure. A new instrument for the assessment of work-related infection hazards was developed based on expert interviews, evaluation of literature and theoretical considerations. It was included in a questionnaire for collecting detailed information on occupational exposure, safety awareness, safety behaviour and socio-demography. Anti-HAV status was assessed for all (n = 343) (non-vaccinated) study participants. Marked differences in task profile and task-related exposure within the group of sewerage workers were found, underlining the necessity of a detailed exposure analysis. In a multivariate model three risk factors that were related significantly to anti-HAV positivity were identified: age, country of origin and task-related exposure. Since task profiles and occupational exposure differ strongly within the job category of sewerage workers. evaluation of endangerment has to reflect individual task-related exposure. The task-exposure matrix developed and presented in this study is a practicable and valid instrument for exposure assessment and may be used for the exposure analysis of further biological agents in this working environment. Besides the known risk parameters age and origin, our study demonstrates a dose-response relationship between the degree of occupational exposure and the anti-HAV seroprevalence. Therefore, an effective worksite HAV-prevention programme should consider all technical, structural and educational measures that help to reduce individual exposure.

  15. Profiles of risk: a qualitative study of injecting drug users in Tehran, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Green Traci

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Iran, there are an estimated 200,000 injecting drug users (IDUs. Injecting drug use is a relatively new phenomenon for this country, where opium smoking was the predominant form of drug use for hundreds of years. As in many countries experiencing a rise in injecting drug use, HIV/AIDS in Iran is associated with the injection of drugs, accounting for transmission of more than two-thirds of HIV infections. This study aimed to: describe the range of characteristics of IDUs in Tehran, Iran's capital city; 2 examine the injecting-related HIV risk behaviors of IDUs, and 3 suggest necessary interventions to prevent HIV transmission among IDUs and their families and sex partners. Methods Using rapid assessment and response methods with a qualitative focus, six districts of Tehran were selected for study. A total of 81 key informants from different sectors and 154 IDUs were selected by purposeful, opportunistic and snowball sampling, then interviewed. Ethnographic observations were done for mapping and studying injecting-related HIV risk settings and behaviors. Modified content analysis methods were used to analyze the data and extract typologies of injecting drug users in Tehran. Results Evidence of injecting drug use and drug-related harm was found in 5 of 6 study districts. Several profiles of IDUs were identified: depending on their socioeconomic status and degree of stability, IDUs employed different injecting behaviors and syringe hygiene practices. The prevalence of sharing injection instruments ranged from 30–100%. Varied magnitudes of risk were evident among the identified IDU typologies in terms of syringe disinfection methods, level of HIV awareness, and personal hygiene exhibited. At the time of research, there were no active HIV prevention programs in existence in Tehran. Conclusion The recent rise of heroin injection in Iran is strongly associated with HIV risk. Sharing injection instruments is a common and complex

  16. Plasma free amino acid profiles evaluate risk of metabolic syndrome, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension in a large Asian population

    OpenAIRE

    Yamaguchi, Natsu; Mahbub, MH; Takahashi, Hidekazu; Hase, Ryosuke; Ishimaru, Yasutaka; Sunagawa, Hiroshi; Amano, Hiroki; Kobayashi- Miura, Mikiko; Kanda, Hideyuki; Fujita, Yasuyuki; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Mai; Kikuchi, Shinya; Ikeda, Atsuko; Takasu, Mariko

    2017-01-01

    Background Recently, the association of plasma free amino acid (PFAA) profile and lifestyle-related diseases has been reported. However, few studies have been reported in large Asian populations, about the usefulness of PFAAs for evaluating disease risks. We examined the ability of PFAA profiles to evaluate lifestyle-related diseases in so far the largest Asian population. Methods We examined plasma concentrations of 19 amino acids in 8589 Japanese subjects, and determined the association wit...

  17. Seasonal and Spatial Variations of Heavy Metals in Two Typical Chinese Rivers: Concentrations, Environmental Risks, and Possible Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Hong; Qian, Xin; Gao, Hailong; Wang, Yulei; Xia, Bisheng

    2014-01-01

    Ten metals were analyzed in samples collected in three seasons (the dry season, the early rainy season, and the late rainy season) from two rivers in China. No observed toxic effect concentrations were used to estimate the risks. The possible sources of the metals in each season, and the dominant source(s) at each site, were assessed using principal components analysis. The metal concentrations in the area studied were found, using t-tests, to vary both seasonally and spatially (P = 0.05). The potential risks in different seasons decreased in the order: early rainy season > dry season > late rainy season, and Cd was the dominant contributor to the total risks associated with heavy metal pollution in the two rivers. The high population and industrial site densities in the Taihu basin have had negative influences on the two rivers. The river that is used as a source of drinking water (the Taipu River) had a low average level of risks caused by the metals. Metals accumulated in environmental media were the main possible sources in the dry season, and emissions from mechanical manufacturing enterprises were the main possible sources in the rainy season. The river in the industrial area (the Wusong River) had a moderate level of risk caused by the metals, and the main sources were industrial emissions. The seasonal and spatial distributions of the heavy metals mean that risk prevention and mitigation measures should be targeted taking these variations into account. PMID:25407421

  18. Seasonal and Spatial Variations of Heavy Metals in Two Typical Chinese Rivers: Concentrations, Environmental Risks, and Possible Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Yao

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Ten metals were analyzed in samples collected in three seasons (the dry season, the early rainy season, and the late rainy season from two rivers in China. No observed toxic effect concentrations were used to estimate the risks. The possible sources of the metals in each season, and the dominant source(s at each site, were assessed using principal components analysis. The metal concentrations in the area studied were found, using t-tests, to vary both seasonally and spatially (P = 0.05. The potential risks in different seasons decreased in the order: early rainy season > dry season > late rainy season, and Cd was the dominant contributor to the total risks associated with heavy metal pollution in the two rivers. The high population and industrial site densities in the Taihu basin have had negative influences on the two rivers. The river that is used as a source of drinking water (the Taipu River had a low average level of risks caused by the metals. Metals accumulated in environmental media were the main possible sources in the dry season, and emissions from mechanical manufacturing enterprises were the main possible sources in the rainy season. The river in the industrial area (the Wusong River had a moderate level of risk caused by the metals, and the main sources were industrial emissions. The seasonal and spatial distributions of the heavy metals mean that risk prevention and mitigation measures should be targeted taking these variations into account.

  19. A spatially-based modeling framework for assessing the risks of soil-associated metals to bats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernout, Béatrice V.; Somerwill, Kate E.; Arnold, Kathryn E.; McClean, Colin J.; Boxall, Alistair B.A.

    2013-01-01

    Populations of some species of bats are declining in some regions of Europe. These declines are probably due to a range of pressures, including climate change, urbanization and exposure to toxins such as metals. This paper describes the development, paramaterisation and application of a spatially explicit modeling framework to predict the risks of soil-associated metals (lead, copper, zinc and cadmium) to bat health. Around 5.9% of areas where bats reside were predicted to have lead levels that pose a risk to bat health. For copper, this value was 2.8%, for cadmium it was 0.6% and for zinc 0.5%. Further work is therefore warranted to explore the impacts of soil-associated metals on bat populations in the UK. - Highlights: ► A modeling framework is presented to estimate risks of contaminants to wildlife. ► The model has been applied to soil metal contamination and bat species. ► Results indicate that lead and copper pose the greatest risk to bat health. ► A risk is predicted for up to 6% of areas where bats reside in England and Wales. - Application of a novel, spatially explicit risk assessment framework indicates that the health of insectivorous bat species in some regions of the UK may be at threat from exposure to soil associated metals.

  20. Latent profile analysis of lifestyle characteristics and health risk behaviors among Koreans who have completed industrial accident care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Wan-Suk; Moon, Ok-Kon; Yeum, Dong-Moon

    2017-10-07

    This study investigated the characteristics and health behavior profiles of 1,803 workers who had experienced industrial accidents. Average weekly exercise days, average number of cigarettes smoked per day, average daily sleep duration, and number of days of alcohol consumption were selected to investigate health behavior profiles. Specifically, latent profile analysis was applied to identify the health behavior profiles of people who had completed industrial accident care; the latent classes were the health-conscious type (n=240), the potential-risk type (n=850), and the high-risk type (n=713). Comparison of the health-conscious and potential-risk types indicated that younger subjects, the employed, and those with lower social status and life satisfaction were more likely to be the potential-risk type. Comparison of the health-conscious and high-risk types revealed that males, younger subjects, the employed, those without chronic illnesses, and those with lower social status and life satisfaction were more likely to be the high-risk type. The results suggest that industrial accident victims who have completed accident care have different health behaviors and it is necessary to improve health promotion based on health type characteristics.

  1. Pilot Study of a Computer-Based Parental Questionnaire and Visual Profile of Obesity Risk in Healthy Preschoolers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Marilyn A; Terhorst, Lauren; Zhang, Peng; Nakonechny, Amanda J; Nowalk, Mary Patricia

    2015-01-01

    This group field-tested a computer-based, parental questionnaire entitled the Childhood Obesity Risk Questionnaire 2-5 (CORQ 2-5) designed to assess obesity risk in healthy preschoolers. COR 2-5 generates a profile of seven obesity risk factors. Field studies provided good internal reliability data and evidence of discriminant validity for the CORQ 2-5. Pediatric nurse clinicians found the CORQ 2-5 profile to be clinically relevant. The CORQ 2-5 is a promising measure of obesity risk in preschoolers who attend community-based health centers for their wellchild visits and who are not yet obese. CORQ 2-5 is intended to guide provider-parental obesity risk discussions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Prediction of incidence and stability of alcohol use disorders by latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles in adolescence and young adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrendt, Silke; Bühringer, Gerhard; Höfler, Michael; Lieb, Roselind; Beesdo-Baum, Katja

    2017-10-01

    Comorbid internalizing mental disorders in alcohol use disorders (AUD) can be understood as putative independent risk factors for AUD or as expressions of underlying shared psychopathology vulnerabilities. However, it remains unclear whether: 1) specific latent internalizing psychopathology risk-profiles predict AUD-incidence and 2) specific latent internalizing comorbidity-profiles in AUD predict AUD-stability. To investigate baseline latent internalizing psychopathology risk profiles as predictors of subsequent AUD-incidence and -stability in adolescents and young adults. Data from the prospective-longitudinal EDSP study (baseline age 14-24 years) were used. The study-design included up to three follow-up assessments in up to ten years. DSM-IV mental disorders were assessed with the DIA-X/M-CIDI. To investigate risk-profiles and their associations with AUD-outcomes, latent class analysis with auxiliary outcome variables was applied. AUD-incidence: a 4-class model (N=1683) was identified (classes: normative-male [45.9%], normative-female [44.2%], internalizing [5.3%], nicotine dependence [4.5%]). Compared to the normative-female class, all other classes were associated with a higher risk of subsequent incident alcohol dependence (p<0.05). AUD-stability: a 3-class model (N=1940) was identified with only one class (11.6%) with high probabilities for baseline AUD. This class was further characterized by elevated substance use disorder (SUD) probabilities and predicted any subsequent AUD (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.4-13.3). An internalizing vulnerability may constitute a pathway to AUD incidence in adolescence and young adulthood. In contrast, no indication for a role of internalizing comorbidity profiles in AUD-stability was found, which may indicate a limited importance of such profiles - in contrast to SUD-related profiles - in AUD stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Correlation of Lipid Profile and Risk of Developing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in 10-14 Year Old Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habiba, Nusrath M; Fulda, Kimberly G; Basha, Riyaz; Shah, Deep; Fernando, Shane; Nguyen, Bao; Xiong, Yi; Franks, Susan F; Matches, Sarah J; Magie, Richard D; Bowman, W Paul

    2016-01-01

    The role of lipid profile in predicting the risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in children is not clearly established. Our aim is to screen non-diabetic children aged 10-14 years for risk of developing T2DM and evaluate the association of abnormal lipids and socioeconomic status (SES). Data on race/ethnicity, family history, body mass index percentile, blood pressure and presence of neck pigmentation (acanthosis nigricans) were collected from 149 non-diabetic children. Using these factors, children were classified into low risk (risk factors) and high risk (>3 risk factors) groups. Logistic regression model and chi-square tests were used to evaluate the association of blood lipid profile and demographic variables. Independent t-test was used to compare the ratio of Total Cholesterol (TC) and High Density Lipids (HDL) with T2DM risk. 60% of children were at high risk for developing T2DM. HDL (prisk group. Low SES showed a marginal association with high risk group. There were no gender or age differences between high and low risk groups. The significant determinants associated with high risk group were modifiable factors providing an opportunity for early intervention and prevention. © 2016 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. Bovine respiratory syncytial virus and bovine coronavirus antibodies in bulk tank milk - risk factors and spatial analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toftaker, Ingrid; Sanchez, Javier; Stokstad, Maria; Nødtvedt, Ane

    2016-10-01

    Bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) and bovine coronavirus (BCoV) are considered widespread among cattle in Norway and worldwide. This cross-sectional study was conducted based on antibody-ELISA of bulk tank milk (BTM) from 1347 herds in two neighboring counties in western Norway. The study aims were to determine the seroprevalence at herd level, to evaluate risk factors for BRSV and BCoV seropositivity, and to assess how these factors were associated with the spatial distribution of positive herds. The overall prevalence of BRSV and BCoV positive herds in the region was 46.2% and 72.2%, respectively. Isopleth maps of the prevalence risk distribution showed large differences in prevalence risk across the study area, with the highest prevalence in the northern region. Common risk factors of importance for both viruses were herd size, geographic location, and proximity to neighbors. Seropositivity for one virus was associated with increased odds of seropositivity for the other virus. Purchase of livestock was an additional risk factor for BCoV seropositivity, included in the model as in-degree, which was defined as the number of incoming movements from individual herds, through animal purchase, over a period of five years. Local dependence and the contribution of risk factors to this effect were assessed using the residuals from two logistic regression models for each virus. One model contained only the x- and y- coordinates as predictors, the other had all significant predictors included. Spatial clusters of high values of residuals were detected using the normal model of the spatial scan statistic and visualized on maps. Adjusting for the risk factors in the final models had different impact on the spatial clusters for the two viruses: For BRSV the number of clusters was reduced from six to four, for BCoV the number of clusters remained the same, however the log-likelihood ratios changed notably. This indicates that geographical differences in proximity to

  5. Measuring the stellar luminosity function and spatial density profile of the inner 0.5 pc of the Milky Way nuclear star cluster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Do, Tuan; Ghez, Andrea; Lu, Jessica R.; Morris, Mark R.; Yelda, Sylvana; Martinez, Gregory D.; Peter, Annika H. G.; Wright, Shelley; Bullock, James; Kaplinghat, Manoj; Matthews, K.

    2012-07-01

    We report on measurements of the luminosity function of early (young) and late-type (old) stars in the central 0.5 pc of the Mi