Vulnerability assessments, identity and spatial scale challenges in disaster-risk reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward R. Carr

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Current approaches to vulnerability assessment for disaster-risk reduction (DRR commonly apply generalised, a priori determinants of vulnerability to particular hazards in particular places. Although they may allow for policy-level legibility at high levels of spatial scale, these approaches suffer from attribution problems that become more acute as the level of analysis is localised and the population under investigation experiences greater vulnerability. In this article, we locate the source of this problem in a spatial scale mismatch between the essentialist framings of identity behind these generalised determinants of vulnerability and the intersectional, situational character of identity in the places where DRR interventions are designed and implemented. Using the Livelihoods as Intimate Government (LIG approach to identify and understand different vulnerabilities to flooding in a community in southern Zambia, we empirically demonstrate how essentialist framings of identity produce this mismatch. Further, we illustrate a means of operationalising intersectional, situational framings of identity to achieve greater and more productive understandings of hazard vulnerability than available through the application of general determinants of vulnerability to specific places and cases.

Spatial analysis of health risk assessment with arsenic intake of drinking water in the LanYang plain

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, C. F.; Liang, C. P.; Jang, C. S.; Chen, J. S.

2016-12-01

Groundwater is one of the most component water resources in Lanyang plain. The groundwater of the Lanyang Plain contains arsenic levels that exceed the current Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (Taiwan EPA) limit of 10 μg/L. The arsenic of groundwater in some areas of the Lanyang Plain pose great menace for the safe use of groundwater resources. Therefore, poor water quality can adversely impact drinking water uses, leading to human health risks. This study analyzed the potential health risk associated with the ingestion of arsenic-affected groundwater in the arseniasis-endemic Lanyang plain. Geostatistical approach is widely used in spatial variability analysis and distributions of field data with uncertainty. The estimation of spatial distribution of the arsenic contaminant in groundwater is very important in the health risk assessment. This study used indicator kriging (IK) and ordinary kriging (OK) methods to explore the spatial variability of arsenic-polluted parameters. The estimated difference between IK and OK estimates was compared. The extent of arsenic pollution was spatially determined and the Target cancer risk (TR) and dose response were explored when the ingestion of arsenic in groundwater. Thus, a zonal management plan based on safe groundwater use is formulated. The research findings can provide a plan reference of regional water resources supplies for local government administrators and developing groundwater resources in the Lanyang Plain.

A spatially-based modeling framework for assessing the risks of soil-associated metals to bats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hernout, Béatrice V.; Somerwill, Kate E.; Arnold, Kathryn E.; McClean, Colin J.; Boxall, Alistair B.A.

2013-01-01

Populations of some species of bats are declining in some regions of Europe. These declines are probably due to a range of pressures, including climate change, urbanization and exposure to toxins such as metals. This paper describes the development, paramaterisation and application of a spatially explicit modeling framework to predict the risks of soil-associated metals (lead, copper, zinc and cadmium) to bat health. Around 5.9% of areas where bats reside were predicted to have lead levels that pose a risk to bat health. For copper, this value was 2.8%, for cadmium it was 0.6% and for zinc 0.5%. Further work is therefore warranted to explore the impacts of soil-associated metals on bat populations in the UK. - Highlights: ► A modeling framework is presented to estimate risks of contaminants to wildlife. ► The model has been applied to soil metal contamination and bat species. ► Results indicate that lead and copper pose the greatest risk to bat health. ► A risk is predicted for up to 6% of areas where bats reside in England and Wales. - Application of a novel, spatially explicit risk assessment framework indicates that the health of insectivorous bat species in some regions of the UK may be at threat from exposure to soil associated metals.

Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

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Jason Dunham

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

A New Method for Spatial Health Risk Assessment of Pollutants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamad Sakizadeh*

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Background: The area of contaminated lands exposed to the health risk of environmental pollutants is a matter of argument. In this study, a new method was developed to estimate the amount of area that is exposed to higher than normal levels of Cr, Mn, and V. Methods: Overall, 170 soil samples were collected from the upper 10 cm of soil in an arid area in central part of Iran in Semnan Province. The values of Cr, Mn, and V were detected by ICP-OES technique. A geostatistical method known as sequential Gaussian co-simulation was applied to consider the spatial risk of these toxic elements. Results: The moderate spatial dependence of Cr indicates the contribution of both intrinsic and extrinsic factor to the levels of this heavy metal in the study area, whereas, Mn and V can be attributed to intrinsic factors (such as lithology. There has not been any significant influence due to agricultural practices on the Cr values in the region. The surface of contaminated area for manganese, produced by risk curve on surface method, was higher than chromium and vanadium. Conclusion: The produced risk curves as rendered in this study can be adopted in similar studies to help managers to estimate the total area that requires cleanup action.

GIS and Geodatabase Disaster Risk for Spatial Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Hendriawan Nur, Wawan; Kumoro, Yugo; Susilowati, Yuliana

2018-02-01

The spatial planning in Indonesia needs to consider the information on the potential disaster. That is because disaster is a serious and detrimental problem that often occurs and causes casualties in some areas in Indonesia as well as inhibits the development. Various models and research were developed to calculate disaster risk assessment. GIS is a system for assembling, storing, analyzing, and displaying geographically referenced disaster. The information can be collaborated with geodatabases to model and to estimate disaster risk in an automated way. It also offers the possibility to customize most of the parameters used in the models. This paper describes a framework which can improve GIS and Geodatabase for the vulnerability, capacity or disaster risk assessment to support the spatial planning activities so they can be more adaptable. By using this framework, GIS application can be used in any location by adjusting variables or calculation methods without changing or rebuilding system from scratch.

Spatial Distribution and Fuzzy Health Risk Assessment of Trace Elements in Surface Water from Honghu Lake.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Fei; Qiu, Zhenzhen; Zhang, Jingdong; Liu, Chaoyang; Cai, Ying; Xiao, Minsi

2017-09-04

Previous studies revealed that Honghu Lake was polluted by trace elements due to anthropogenic activities. This study investigated the spatial distribution of trace elements in Honghu Lake, and identified the major pollutants and control areas based on the fuzzy health risk assessment at screening level. The mean total content of trace elements in surface water decreased in the order of Zn (18.04 μg/L) > Pb (3.42 μg/L) > Cu (3.09 μg/L) > Cr (1.63 μg/L) > As (0.99 μg/L) > Cd (0.14 μg/L), within limits of Drinking Water Guidelines. The results of fuzzy health risk assessment indicated that there was no obvious non-carcinogenic risk to human health, while carcinogenic risk was observed in descending order of As > Cr > Cd > Pb. As was regarded to have the highest carcinogenic risk among selected trace elements because it generally accounted for 64% of integrated carcinogenic risk. Potential carcinogenic risk of trace elements in each sampling site was approximately at medium risk level (10 -5 to 10 -4 ). The areas in the south (S4, S13, and S16) and northeast (S8, S18, and S19) of Honghu Lake were regarded as the risk priority control areas. However, the corresponding maximum memberships of integrated carcinogenic risk in S1, S3, S10-S13, S15, and S18 were of relatively low credibility (50-60%), and may mislead the decision-makers in identifying the risk priority areas. Results of fuzzy assessment presented the subordinate grade and corresponding reliability of risk, and provided more full-scale results for decision-makers, which made up for the deficiency of certainty assessment to a certain extent.

Assessing habitat risk from human activities to inform coastal and marine spatial planning: a demonstration in Belize

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arkema, Katie K; Wood, Spencer A; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Verutes, Gregory; Rosenthal, Amy; Bernhardt, Joanna R; Clarke, Chantalle; Rosado, Samir; Canto, Maritza; McField, Melanie; De Zegher, Joann

2014-01-01

Integrated coastal and ocean management requires transparent and accessible approaches for understanding the influence of human activities on marine environments. Here we introduce a model for assessing the combined risk to habitats from multiple ocean uses. We apply the model to coral reefs, mangrove forests and seagrass beds in Belize to inform the design of the country’s first Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan. Based on extensive stakeholder engagement, review of existing legislation and data collected from diverse sources, we map the current distribution of coastal and ocean activities and develop three scenarios for zoning these activities in the future. We then estimate ecosystem risk under the current and three future scenarios. Current levels of risk vary spatially among the nine coastal planning regions in Belize. Empirical tests of the model are strong—three-quarters of the measured data for coral reef health lie within the 95% confidence interval of interpolated model data and 79% of the predicted mangrove occurrences are associated with observed responses. The future scenario that harmonizes conservation and development goals results in a 20% reduction in the area of high-risk habitat compared to the current scenario, while increasing the extent of several ocean uses. Our results are a component of the ICZM Plan for Belize that will undergo review by the national legislature in 2015. This application of our model to marine spatial planning in Belize illustrates an approach that can be used broadly by coastal and ocean planners to assess risk to habitats under current and future management scenarios. (letter)

Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jidong; Li, Ying; Li, Ning; Shi, Peijun

2018-01-01

The extent of economic losses due to a natural hazard and disaster depends largely on the spatial distribution of asset values in relation to the hazard intensity distribution within the affected area. Given that statistical data on asset value are collected by administrative units in China, generating spatially explicit asset exposure maps remains a key challenge for rapid postdisaster economic loss assessment. The goal of this study is to introduce a top-down (or downscaling) approach to disaggregate administrative-unit level asset value to grid-cell level. To do so, finding the highly correlated "surrogate" indicators is the key. A combination of three data sets-nighttime light grid, LandScan population grid, and road density grid, is used as ancillary asset density distribution information for spatializing the asset value. As a result, a high spatial resolution asset value map of China for 2015 is generated. The spatial data set contains aggregated economic value at risk at 30 arc-second spatial resolution. Accuracy of the spatial disaggregation reflects redistribution errors introduced by the disaggregation process as well as errors from the original ancillary data sets. The overall accuracy of the results proves to be promising. The example of using the developed disaggregated asset value map in exposure assessment of watersheds demonstrates that the data set offers immense analytical flexibility for overlay analysis according to the hazard extent. This product will help current efforts to analyze spatial characteristics of exposure and to uncover the contributions of both physical and social drivers of natural hazard and disaster across space and time. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

Importance of spatial factors and temporal scales in environmental risk assessment in marine ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grebenkov, A.; Linkov, I.; Andrizhievski, A.; Lukashevich, A.; Trifonov, A.

2004-01-01

Coastal areas adjacent to the Black Sea, particularly in Crimea, have suffered from inappropriate human activities, poorly regulated industry and former naval bases. Industrial and municipal wastewater pollutants draining into the three major European rivers (the Danube, Dniestr, and Dnieper) and dumping in the open sea result in an enormous increase in contamination level of ecosystems of the Black Sea. In spite of this, Crimea and its adjacent waters is still a globally important center of biological diversity, with an enormous and exciting range of habitats within a comparatively small area. The problem now is to evaluate economically feasible remediation and ecologically sustainable cleanup/reuse alternatives for the most contaminated sites of this area. One of the principal methodological components of such evaluation is a risk-based decision protocol that provides support in analysis of ecological value and reuse options for a chosen site. This paper presents the results of development of a spatially explicit risk assessment technique to be implemented as a part of the decision-making process and gives an example of its application to contaminated marine ecosystems. The model is suggested that takes into account several principal assumptions: (i) spatial heterogeneity of contamination of forage is known and mapped within known location of receptor's habitat, and (ii) the receptor movement and timescale are determined by location, volume and attractiveness of local habitat and forage resources. This implies two models: Spatially Explicit Exposure Assessment Model that calculates internal exposure resulting from ingestion of contaminated feeds, and Probabilistic Receptor Migration Model that generates motivation of behaviour of a receptor while feeding. In the first model, time-dependent accumulation of contamination in receptor tissue is defined by the differential balance equation that takes into account forage consumption rate and excretion rate. In the

Soil pH Errors Propagation from Measurements to Spatial Predictions - Cost Benefit Analysis and Risk Assessment Implications for Practitioners and Modelers

Science.gov (United States)

Owens, P. R.; Libohova, Z.; Seybold, C. A.; Wills, S. A.; Peaslee, S.; Beaudette, D.; Lindbo, D. L.

2017-12-01

The measurement errors and spatial prediction uncertainties of soil properties in the modeling community are usually assessed against measured values when available. However, of equal importance is the assessment of errors and uncertainty impacts on cost benefit analysis and risk assessments. Soil pH was selected as one of the most commonly measured soil properties used for liming recommendations. The objective of this study was to assess the error size from different sources and their implications with respect to management decisions. Error sources include measurement methods, laboratory sources, pedotransfer functions, database transections, spatial aggregations, etc. Several databases of measured and predicted soil pH were used for this study including the United States National Cooperative Soil Survey Characterization Database (NCSS-SCDB), the US Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database. The distribution of errors among different sources from measurement methods to spatial aggregation showed a wide range of values. The greatest RMSE of 0.79 pH units was from spatial aggregation (SSURGO vs Kriging), while the measurement methods had the lowest RMSE of 0.06 pH units. Assuming the order of data acquisition based on the transaction distance i.e. from measurement method to spatial aggregation the RMSE increased from 0.06 to 0.8 pH units suggesting an "error propagation". This has major implications for practitioners and modeling community. Most soil liming rate recommendations are based on 0.1 pH unit increments, while the desired soil pH level increments are based on 0.4 to 0.5 pH units. Thus, even when the measured and desired target soil pH are the same most guidelines recommend 1 ton ha-1 lime, which translates in 111 ha-1 that the farmer has to factor in the cost-benefit analysis. However, this analysis need to be based on uncertainty predictions (0.5-1.0 pH units) rather than measurement errors (0.1 pH units) which would translate in 555-1,111 investment that

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

2008-02-01

The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

Spatially explicit assessment of heat health risk by using multi-sensor remote sensing images and socioeconomic data in Yangtze River Delta, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qian; Ding, Mingjun; Yang, Xuchao; Hu, Kejia; Qi, Jiaguo

2018-05-25

The increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, which are potentially associated with climate change in the near future, highlights the importance of heat health risk assessment, a significant reference for heat-related death reduction and intervention. However, a spatiotemporal mismatch exists between gridded heat hazard and human exposure in risk assessment, which hinders the identification of high-risk areas at finer scales. A human settlement index integrated by nighttime light images, enhanced vegetation index, and digital elevation model data was utilized to assess the human exposure at high spatial resolution. Heat hazard and vulnerability index were generated by land surface temperature and demographic and socioeconomic census data, respectively. Spatially explicit assessment of heat health risk and its driving factors was conducted in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), east China at 250 m pixel level. High-risk areas were mainly distributed in the urbanized areas of YRD, which were mostly driven by high human exposure and heat hazard index. In some less-urbanized cities and suburban and rural areas of mega-cities, the heat health risks are in second priority. The risks in some less-developed areas were high despite the low human exposure index because of high heat hazard and vulnerability index. This study illustrated a methodology for identifying high-risk areas by combining freely available multi-source data. Highly urbanized areas were considered hotspots of high heat health risks, which were largely driven by the increasing urban heat island effects and population density in urban areas. Repercussions of overheating were weakened due to the low social vulnerability in some central areas benefitting from the low proportion of sensitive population or the high level of socioeconomic development. By contrast, high social vulnerability intensifies heat health risks in some less-urbanized cities and suburban areas of mega-cities.

Towards assessing fine-scale indicators for the spatial transmission risk of Fasciola hepatica in cattle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johannes Charlier

2011-05-01

Full Text Available In order to improve the spatial resolution of current risk maps for fasciolosis in cattle, more knowledge is needed with respect to farm-level factors that determine infection risk. In this study, we visited 39 dairy farms within a predefined low- and high-risk area for fasciolosis in Belgium and assessed their infection status by an indirect bulk tank milk enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. Management factors were collected and all pastured lands of the farms were visited to identify and georeference potential snail habitats. The habitats were visually characterised, investigated for the presence of the intermediate host snails of Fasciola hepatica (i.e.Galba truncatula and Radix spp. and used in a geographical information system (GIS to construct overlays including information on soil and hydrology. A linear regression model was used to evaluate associations between bulk tank milk ELISA results and farm level management and habitat factors. A logistic, mixed model was used to identify possible risk factors for the presence of intermediate host snails on a potential habitat. Potential snail habitats were found in 35 out of 39 farms. A total of 87 potential habitats were identified and on 29% of these, intermediate host snails were found. The number of potential habitats, the presence of snails, drainage of pastures, month of turnout of the cows, stocking rate, type of watering place and risk area were significantly associated with the bulk tank milk ELISA result and explained 85% of the observed variation. Intermediate host snails were more likely to be present with increasing surface of the potential habitat and on loamy soils. This study confirms the importance of farm management factors in the infection risk for F. hepatica in cattle and highlights that the combination of management factors with characterization of snail habitats is a powerful means to predict the infection risk with F. hepatica at the individual farm level. Further

Spatial assessment of the potential risk of avian influenza A virus infection in three raptor species in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

MORIGUCHI, Sachiko; ONUMA, Manabu; GOKA, Koichi

2016-01-01

Avian influenza A, a highly pathogenic avian influenza, is a lethal infection in certain species of wild birds, including some endangered species. Raptors are susceptible to avian influenza, and spatial risk assessment of such species may be valuable for conservation planning. We used the maximum entropy approach to generate potential distribution models of three raptor species from presence-only data for the mountain hawk-eagle Nisaetus nipalensis, northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis and peregrine falcon Falco peregrinus, surveyed during the winter from 1996 to 2001. These potential distribution maps for raptors were superimposed on avian influenza A risk maps of Japan, created from data on incidence of the virus in wild birds throughout Japan from October 2010 to March 2011. The avian influenza A risk map for the mountain hawk-eagle showed that most regions of Japan had a low risk for avian influenza A. In contrast, the maps for the northern goshawk and peregrine falcon showed that their high-risk areas were distributed on the plains along the Sea of Japan and Pacific coast. We recommend enhanced surveillance for each raptor species in high-risk areas and immediate establishment of inspection systems. At the same time, ecological risk assessments that determine factors, such as the composition of prey species, and differential sensitivity of avian influenza A virus between bird species should provide multifaceted insights into the total risk assessment of endangered species. PMID:26972333

Creating a spatially-explicit index: a method for assessing the global wildfire-water risk

Science.gov (United States)

Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

2017-04-01

The wildfire-water risk (WWR) has been defined as the potential for wildfires to adversely affect water resources that are important for downstream ecosystems and human water needs for adequate water quantity and quality, therefore compromising the security of their water supply. While tools and methods are numerous for watershed-scale risk analysis, the development of a toolbox for the large-scale evaluation of the wildfire risk to water security has only started recently. In order to provide managers and policy-makers with an adequate tool, we implemented a method for the spatial analysis of the global WWR based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. As this approach heavily relies on data, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. When appropriate, we applied a hydrological routing function to our indicators in order to simulate downstream accumulation of potentially harmful material. Each indicator was then assigned a DPSIR category. We collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the WWR. A thorough sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to understand the relationship between the final risk values and the spatial pattern of each category used during the indexation. For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, to get a sense of regional DPSIR specificities. This rather simple method does not necessitate the use of complex physical models and provides a scalable and efficient tool

Micro-scale Spatial Clustering of Cholera Risk Factors in Urban Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Bi, Qifang; Azman, Andrew S; Satter, Syed Moinuddin; Khan, Azharul Islam; Ahmed, Dilruba; Riaj, Altaf Ahmed; Gurley, Emily S; Lessler, Justin

2016-02-01

Close interpersonal contact likely drives spatial clustering of cases of cholera and diarrhea, but spatial clustering of risk factors may also drive this pattern. Few studies have focused specifically on how exposures for disease cluster at small spatial scales. Improving our understanding of the micro-scale clustering of risk factors for cholera may help to target interventions and power studies with cluster designs. We selected sets of spatially matched households (matched-sets) near cholera case households between April and October 2013 in a cholera endemic urban neighborhood of Tongi Township in Bangladesh. We collected data on exposures to suspected cholera risk factors at the household and individual level. We used intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) to characterize clustering of exposures within matched-sets and households, and assessed if clustering depended on the geographical extent of the matched-sets. Clustering over larger spatial scales was explored by assessing the relationship between matched-sets. We also explored whether different exposures tended to appear together in individuals, households, and matched-sets. Household level exposures, including: drinking municipal supplied water (ICC = 0.97, 95%CI = 0.96, 0.98), type of latrine (ICC = 0.88, 95%CI = 0.71, 1.00), and intermittent access to drinking water (ICC = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.87, 1.00) exhibited strong clustering within matched-sets. As the geographic extent of matched-sets increased, the concordance of exposures within matched-sets decreased. Concordance between matched-sets of exposures related to water supply was elevated at distances of up to approximately 400 meters. Household level hygiene practices were correlated with infrastructure shown to increase cholera risk. Co-occurrence of different individual level exposures appeared to mostly reflect the differing domestic roles of study participants. Strong spatial clustering of exposures at a small spatial scale in a cholera endemic

Micro-scale Spatial Clustering of Cholera Risk Factors in Urban Bangladesh.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qifang Bi

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Close interpersonal contact likely drives spatial clustering of cases of cholera and diarrhea, but spatial clustering of risk factors may also drive this pattern. Few studies have focused specifically on how exposures for disease cluster at small spatial scales. Improving our understanding of the micro-scale clustering of risk factors for cholera may help to target interventions and power studies with cluster designs. We selected sets of spatially matched households (matched-sets near cholera case households between April and October 2013 in a cholera endemic urban neighborhood of Tongi Township in Bangladesh. We collected data on exposures to suspected cholera risk factors at the household and individual level. We used intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs to characterize clustering of exposures within matched-sets and households, and assessed if clustering depended on the geographical extent of the matched-sets. Clustering over larger spatial scales was explored by assessing the relationship between matched-sets. We also explored whether different exposures tended to appear together in individuals, households, and matched-sets. Household level exposures, including: drinking municipal supplied water (ICC = 0.97, 95%CI = 0.96, 0.98, type of latrine (ICC = 0.88, 95%CI = 0.71, 1.00, and intermittent access to drinking water (ICC = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.87, 1.00 exhibited strong clustering within matched-sets. As the geographic extent of matched-sets increased, the concordance of exposures within matched-sets decreased. Concordance between matched-sets of exposures related to water supply was elevated at distances of up to approximately 400 meters. Household level hygiene practices were correlated with infrastructure shown to increase cholera risk. Co-occurrence of different individual level exposures appeared to mostly reflect the differing domestic roles of study participants. Strong spatial clustering of exposures at a small spatial scale in a

Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard J. Dawson

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

Risk Management of Large RC Structures within Spatial Information System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Jianjun; Faber, Michael Havbro

2012-01-01

Abstract: The present article addresses the development of a spatial information system (SIS), which aims to facilitate risk management of large‐scale concrete structures. The formulation of the SIS is based on ideas developed in the context of indicator‐based risk modeling for concrete structures...... subject to corrosion and geographical information system based risk modeling concerning large‐scale risk management. The term “risk management” here refers in particular to the process of condition assessment and optimization of the inspection and repair activities. The SIS facilitates the storage...... and handling of all relevant information to the risk management. The probabilistic modeling utilized in the condition assessment takes basis in a Bayesian hierarchical modeling philosophy. It facilitates the updating of risks as well as optimizing inspection plans whenever new information about the condition...

Spatially Informed Plant PRA Models for Security Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wheeler, Timothy A.; Thomas, Willard; Thornsbury, Eric

2006-01-01

Traditional risk models can be adapted to evaluate plant response for situations where plant systems and structures are intentionally damaged, such as from sabotage or terrorism. This paper describes a process by which traditional risk models can be spatially informed to analyze the effects of compound and widespread harsh environments through the use of 'damage footprints'. A 'damage footprint' is a spatial map of regions of the plant (zones) where equipment could be physically destroyed or disabled as a direct consequence of an intentional act. The use of 'damage footprints' requires that the basic events from the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) be spatially transformed so that the failure of individual components can be linked to the destruction of or damage to specific spatial zones within the plant. Given the nature of intentional acts, extensive modifications must be made to the risk models to account for the special nature of the 'initiating events' associated with deliberate adversary actions. Intentional acts might produce harsh environments that in turn could subject components and structures to one or more insults, such as structural, fire, flood, and/or vibration and shock damage. Furthermore, the potential for widespread damage from some of these insults requires an approach that addresses the impacts of these potentially severe insults even when they occur in locations distant from the actual physical location of a component or structure modeled in the traditional PRA. (authors)

Spatial Distribution, Chemical Fraction and Fuzzy Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Surface Sediments from the Honghu Lake, China

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Minsi; Zhang, Jingdong; Liu, Chaoyang; Qiu, Zhenzhen; Cai, Ying

2018-01-01

Spatial concentrations and chemical fractions of heavy metals (Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn and Cd) in 16 sampling sites from the Honghu Lake were investigated using an atomic absorption spectrophotometer and optimized BCR (the European Community Bureau of Reference) three-stage extraction procedure. Compared with the corresponding probable effect levels (PELs), adverse biological effects of the studied five sediment metals decreased in the sequence of Cr > Cu > Zn > Pb > Cd. Geo-accumulation index (Igeo) values for Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn in each sampling site were at un-contamination level, while the values for Cd varied from un-contamination level to moderate contamination level. Spatially, the enrichment degree of Cd in lower part of the South Lake, the west part of the North Lake and the outlet were higher than the other parts of Honghu Lake. For metal chemical fractions, the proportions of the acid-extractable fraction of five metal contents were in the descending order: Cd, Cu, Zn, Pb and Cr. Cd had the highest bioaccessibility. Being the above indexes focused always on heavy metals’ total content or chemical fraction in deterministic assessment system, which may confuse decision makers, the fuzzy comprehensive risk assessment method was established based on PEI (Potential ecological risk index), RAC (Risk assessment code) and fuzzy theory. Average comprehensive risks of heavy metals in sediments revealed the following orders: Cd (considerable risk) > Cu (moderate risk) > Zn (low risk) > Pb > Cr. Thus, Cd and Cu were determined as the pollutants of most concern. The central part of South Honghu Lake (S4, S5, S6, S9, S12 and S14), east part of the North Honghu Lake (S1) and outlet of outlet of the Honghu Lake (S10) were recommended as the priority control areas. Specifically, it is necessary to pay more attention to S1, S4, S5, S6, S9 and S16 when decision making for their calculated membership values (probabilities) of adjacent risk levels quite close. PMID:29373483

Modeling individual movement decisions of brown hare (Lepus europaeus) as a key concept for realistic spatial behavior and exposure: A population model for landscape-level risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Kleinmann, Joachim U; Wang, Magnus

2017-09-01

Spatial behavior is of crucial importance for the risk assessment of pesticides and for the assessment of effects of agricultural practice or multiple stressors, because it determines field use, exposition, and recovery. Recently, population models have increasingly been used to understand the mechanisms driving risk and recovery or to conduct landscape-level risk assessments. To include spatial behavior appropriately in population models for use in risk assessments, a new method, "probabilistic walk," was developed, which simulates the detailed daily movement of individuals by taking into account food resources, vegetation cover, and the presence of conspecifics. At each movement step, animals decide where to move next based on probabilities being determined from this information. The model was parameterized to simulate populations of brown hares (Lepus europaeus). A detailed validation of the model demonstrated that it can realistically reproduce various natural patterns of brown hare ecology and behavior. Simulated proportions of time animals spent in fields (PT values) were also comparable to field observations. It is shown that these important parameters for the risk assessment may, however, vary in different landscapes. The results demonstrate the value of using population models to reduce uncertainties in risk assessment and to better understand which factors determine risk in a landscape context. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2299-2307. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Assessing Wildfire Risk in Cultural Heritage Properties Using High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Satellite Imagery and Spatially Explicit Fire Simulations: The Case of Holy Mount Athos, Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giorgos Mallinis

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Fire management implications and the design of conservation strategies on fire prone landscapes within the UNESCO World Heritage Properties require the application of wildfire risk assessment at landscape level. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial variation of wildfire risk on Holy Mount Athos in Greece. Mt. Athos includes 20 monasteries and other structures that are threatened by increasing frequency of wildfires. Site-specific fuel models were created by measuring in the field several fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, while the spatial extent of the fuel types was determined using a synergy of high-resolution imagery and high temporal information from medium spatial resolution imagery classified through object-based analysis and a machine learning classifier. The Minimum Travel Time (MTT algorithm, as it is embedded in FlamMap software, was applied in order to evaluate Burn Probability (BP, Conditional Flame Length (CFL, Fire Size (FS, and Source-Sink Ratio (SSR. The results revealed low burn probabilities for the monasteries; however, nine out of the 20 monasteries have high fire potential in terms of fire intensity, which means that if an ignition occurs, an intense fire is expected. The outputs of this study may be used for decision-making for short-term predictions of wildfire risk at an operational level, contributing to fire suppression and management of UNESCO World Heritage Properties.

A preliminary spatial assessment of risk: Marine birds and chronic oil pollution on Canada's Pacific coast.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, C H; O'Hara, P D; Bertazzon, S; Morgan, K; Underwood, F E; Paquet, P C

2016-12-15

Chronic oil pollution poses substantial risks to marine birds and other marine wildlife worldwide. On Canada's Pacific coast, the negative ecological consequences to marine birds and marine ecosystems in general remain poorly understood. Using information relating to oil spill probability of occurrence, areas of overall importance to marine birds, and the at-sea distribution and density of 12 marine bird species and seven bird groups, including multiple Species at Risk, we undertook a spatial assessment of risk. Our results identify two main areas important to marine birds potentially at higher risk of exposure to oil. For individual bird species or species groups, those predicted to have elevated bird densities near the mainland and the northeast coast of Vancouver Island were identified as being at higher potential risk of exposure. Our results, however, should be considered preliminary. As with other anthropogenic stressors, in order to better understand and subsequently mitigate the consequences of chronic oil pollution on marine birds, improved information relating to marine birds and the occurrence of oil spills on Canada's Pacific coast is needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees

2013-04-01

In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and

Wild Fire Risk Map in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag

2016-06-01

Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

Testing for changes in spatial relative risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Hazelton, Martin L

2017-07-30

The spatial relative risk function is a useful tool for describing geographical variation in disease incidence. We consider the problem of comparing relative risk functions between two time periods, with the idea of detecting alterations in the spatial pattern of disease risk irrespective of whether there has been a change in the overall incidence rate. Using case-control datasets for each period, we use kernel smoothing methods to derive a test statistic based on the difference between the log-relative risk functions, which we term the log-relative risk ratio. For testing a null hypothesis of an unchanging spatial pattern of risk, we show how p-values can be computed using both randomization methods and an asymptotic normal approximation. The methodology is applied to data on campylobacteriosis from 2006 to 2013 in a region of New Zealand. We find clear evidence of a change in the spatial pattern of risk between those years, which can be explained in differences by response to a public health initiative between urban and rural communities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spatial-temporal distribution and risk assessment of mercury in different fractions in surface sediments from the Yangtze River estuary.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Qingrui; Liu, Ruimin; Men, Cong; Xu, Fei; Guo, Lijia; Shen, Zhenyao

2017-11-15

The temporal and spatial distributions of mercury in different fractions and its potential ecological risk were investigated in sediments from the Yangtze River estuary (YRE) by analyzing data collected from the study area. The results showed that mercury in the organic and residual fractions had dominant proportions, from 15.2% to 48.52% and from 45.96% to 81.59%, respectively. The fractions were more susceptible to seasonal changes than other fractions. Higher proportions of mercury in organic fraction were found in wet seasons; the opposite was true for mercury in residual fraction. With respect to the spatial distribution, the concentration mercury in exchangeable, carbonate and Fe-Mn oxide fractions showed a decreasing trend from the inner estuary to the outer estuary, but no obvious trends were found in the distributions of mercury in the organic and residual fractions. The risk assessment code (RAC) was used to evaluate the potential ecological risk in the study area based on the proportions of exchangeable and carbonate fractions. The average RAC values during the four periods were 6.00%, 2.20%, 2.83%, and 0.61%. Although these values show that the risk in the study area is generally low, the distribution of RAC values indicates that the inner estuary has a medium risk, with a value up to 10%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Spatial and temporal variation in radiation exposure of amphibians - Implications for environmental risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stark, K. [Stockholm University (Sweden)

2014-07-01

Although amphibians are threatened world-wide, many amphibian species are protected in national legislation. Thus, amphibians need special attention in many environmental risk assessments for releases of contaminants such as radionuclides. In fact, amphibians' ecology and physiology (including, for example, a complex life-cycle with both aquatic and terrestrial life stages, and a thin skin) makes them sensitive to radiation exposure. In current dose models for wildlife, homogenous distribution of radionuclides in soil is assumed. However, soils are heterogeneous environments and radionuclide contamination can be very unevenly distributed. As a consequence, bioaccumulation of radionuclides in biota may vary on a local scale. Specifically, organisms' spatial location and movement within habitats may affect both their external and internal exposure pattern to radionuclides. Therefore, measuring the spatial location of individual amphibians within ecosystems and understanding why they use these different locations is essential for predicting potential effects of released radionuclides on these populations. The aim of this study was to investigate amphibians' spatial distribution in a {sup 137}Cs contaminated wetland area and their body content of {sup 137}Cs at the beginning and end of the summer period. The study site was a wetland nature reserve called Bladmyra near Gaevle in the central-eastern part of Sweden. This area received fallout of {sup 137}Cs after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. This study measured the spatial distributions of two amphibian species (Rana arvalis and Bufo bufo) with Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags in a mark-and-recapture study during 2012-2014. In addition, {sup 137}Cs body content in the two species was measured by whole body counting in spring and autumn of 2013. The results showed differences between years in how marked animals used the study area: More individuals stayed in a small area during 2012 than in 2013

WILD FIRE RISK MAP IN THE EASTERN STEPPE OF MONGOLIA USING SPATIAL MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Nasanbat

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

Spatial vulnerability assessments by regression kriging

Science.gov (United States)

Pásztor, László; Laborczi, Annamária; Takács, Katalin; Szatmári, Gábor

2016-04-01

information representing IEW or GRP forming environmental factors were taken into account to support the spatial inference of the locally experienced IEW frequency and measured GRP values respectively. An efficient spatial prediction methodology was applied to construct reliable maps, namely regression kriging (RK) using spatially exhaustive auxiliary data on soil, geology, topography, land use and climate. RK divides the spatial inference into two parts. Firstly the deterministic component of the target variable is determined by a regression model. The residuals of the multiple linear regression analysis represent the spatially varying but dependent stochastic component, which are interpolated by kriging. The final map is the sum of the two component predictions. Application of RK also provides the possibility of inherent accuracy assessment. The resulting maps are characterized by global and local measures of its accuracy. Additionally the method enables interval estimation for spatial extension of the areas of predefined risk categories. All of these outputs provide useful contribution to spatial planning, action planning and decision making. Acknowledgement: Our work was partly supported by the Hungarian National Scientific Research Foundation (OTKA, Grant No. K105167).

Spatial assessment of potential ecological risk of heavy metals in soils from informal e-waste recycling in Ghana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vincent Nartey Kyere

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The rapidly increasing annual global volume of e-waste, and of its inherently valuable fraction, has created an opportunity for individuals in Agbogbloshie, Accra, Ghana to make a living by using unconventional, uncontrolled, primitive and crude procedures to recycle and recover valuable metals from this waste. The current form of recycling procedures releases hazardous fractions, such as heavy metals, into the soil, posing a significant risk to the environment and human health. Using a handheld global positioning system, 132 soil samples based on 100 m grid intervals were collected and analysed for cadmium (Cd, chromium (Cr, copper (Cu, mercury (Hg, lead (Pb and zinc (Zn. Using geostatistical techniques and sediment quality guidelines, this research seeks to assess the potential risk these heavy metals posed to the proposed Korle Ecological Restoration Zone by informal e-waste processing site in Agbogbloshie, Accra, Ghana. Analysis of heavy metals revealed concentrations exceeded the regulatory limits of both Dutch and Canadian soil quality and guidance values, and that the ecological risk posed by the heavy metals extended beyond the main burning and dismantling sites of the informal recyclers to the school, residential, recreational, clinic, farm and worship areas. The heavy metals Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn had normal distribution, spatial variability, and spatial autocorrelation. Further analysis revealed the decreasing order of toxicity, Hg>Cd>Pb> Cu>Zn>Cr, of contributing significantly to the potential ecological risk in the study area.

Risk assessment in support of plant health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

2012-01-01

environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

2003-01-01

Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Dawson, Richard

2015-01-01

Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART in earthquake risk assessment: a case study of Delhi region, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nishant Sinha

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This article is aimed at earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART, which is based on Saaty's multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique. The three specific study sites of Delhi were chosen for research as it corresponds to a typical patch of the urban environs, completely engrossed with residential, commercial and industrial units. The earthquake hazard affecting components are established in the form of geographic information system data-set layers including seismic zone, peak ground acceleration (PGA, soil characteristics, liquefaction potential, geological characteristics, land use, proximity to fault and epicentre. The physical vulnerability layers comprising building information, namely number of stories, year-built range, area, occupancy and construction type, derived from remote sensing imagery, were only considered for the current research. SMART was developed for earthquake risk assessment, and weights were derived both at component and its element level. Based on weighted overlay techniques, the earthquake hazard and vulnerability layers were created from which the risk maps were derived through multiplicative analysis. The developed risk maps may prove useful in decision-making process and formulating risk mitigation measures.

Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Adrian; Battles, John; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2008-01-01

For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor, Abies magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, and Pinus lambertiana, in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots.In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor, our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana, mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity.Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana, spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor, although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial

[Physical process based risk assessment of groundwater pollution in the mining area].

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Fa-Sheng; Cheng, Pin; Zhang, Bo

2014-04-01

Case studies of groundwater pollution risk assessment at home and abroad generally start from groundwater vulnerability, without considering the influence of characteristic pollutants on the consequences of pollution too much. Vulnerability is the natural sensitivity of the environment to pollutants. Risk assessment of groundwater pollution should reflect the movement and distribution of pollutants in groundwater. In order to improve the risk assessment theory and method of groundwater pollution, a physical process based risk assessment methodology for groundwater pollution was proposed in a mining area. According to the sensitivity of the economic and social conditions and the possible distribution of pollutants in the future, the spatial distribution of risk levels in aquifer was ranged before hand, and the pollutant source intensity corresponding to each risk level was deduced accordingly. By taking it as the criterion for the classification of groundwater pollution risk assessment, the groundwater pollution risk in the mining area was evaluated by simulating the migration of pollutants in the vadose zone and aquifer. The result show that the risk assessment method of groundwater pollution based on physical process can give the concentration distribution of pollutants and the risk level in the spatial and temporal. For single punctuate polluted area, it gives detailed risk characterization, which is better than the risk assessment method that based on aquifer intrinsic vulnerability index, and it is applicable to the risk assessment of existing polluted sites, optimizing the future sites and providing design parameters for the site construction.

CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

2014-05-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk

Spatial distribution and risk assessment of radionuclides in soils around a coal-fired power plant: A case study from the city of Baoji, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dai Lijun; Wei Haiyan; Wang Lingqing

2007-01-01

Coal burning may enhance human exposure to the natural radionuclides that occur around coal-fired power plants (CFPP). In this study, the spatial distribution and hazard assessment of radionuclides found in soils around a CFPP were investigated using statistics, geostatistics, and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The concentrations of 226 Ra, 232 Th, and 40 K in soils range from 12.54 to 40.18, 38.02 to 72.55, and 498.02 to 1126.98 Bq kg -1 , respectively. Ordinary kriging was carried out to map the spatial patterns of radionuclides, and disjunctive kriging was used to quantify the probability of radium equivalent activity (Ra eq ) higher than the threshold. The maps show that the spatial variability of the natural radionuclide concentrations in soils was apparent. The results of this study could provide valuable information for risk assessment of environmental pollution and decision support

Risk mapping of Rinderpest sero-prevalence in Central and Southern Somalia based on spatial and network risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz-Pelaez, Angel; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Tempia, Stefano; Otieno, F Tom; Aden, Hussein H; Costagli, Riccardo

2010-04-28

In contrast to most pastoral systems, the Somali livestock production system is oriented towards domestic trade and export with seasonal movement patterns of herds/flocks in search of water and pasture and towards export points. Data from a rinderpest survey and other data sources have been integrated to explore the topology of a contact network of cattle herds based on a spatial proximity criterion and other attributes related to cattle herd dynamics. The objective of the study is to integrate spatial mobility and other attributes with GIS and network approaches in order to develop a predictive spatial model of presence of rinderpest. A spatial logistic regression model was fitted using data for 562 point locations. It includes three statistically significant continuous-scale variables that increase the risk of rinderpest: home range radius, herd density and clustering coefficient of the node of the network whose link was established if the sum of the home ranges of every pair of nodes was equal or greater than the shortest distance between the points. The sensitivity of the model is 85.1% and the specificity 84.6%, correctly classifying 84.7% of the observations. The spatial autocorrelation not accounted for by the model is negligible and visual assessment of a semivariogram of the residuals indicated that there was no undue amount of spatial autocorrelation. The predictive model was applied to a set of 6176 point locations covering the study area. Areas at high risk of having serological evidence of rinderpest are located mainly in the coastal districts of Lower and Middle Juba, the coastal area of Lower Shabele and in the regions of Middle Shabele and Bay. There are also isolated spots of high risk along the border with Kenya and the southern area of the border with Ethiopia. The identification of point locations and areas with high risk of presence of rinderpest and their spatial visualization as a risk map will be useful for informing the prioritization of

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

Science.gov (United States)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

2017-04-01

Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the

The role of satellite remote sensing in structured ecosystem risk assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Nicholas J; Keith, David A; Bland, Lucie M; Ferrari, Renata; Lyons, Mitchell B; Lucas, Richard; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Nicholson, Emily

2018-04-01

The current set of global conservation targets requires methods for monitoring the changing status of ecosystems. Protocols for ecosystem risk assessment are uniquely suited to this task, providing objective syntheses of a wide range of data to estimate the likelihood of ecosystem collapse. Satellite remote sensing can deliver ecologically relevant, long-term datasets suitable for analysing changes in ecosystem area, structure and function at temporal and spatial scales relevant to risk assessment protocols. However, there is considerable uncertainty about how to select and effectively utilise remotely sensed variables for risk assessment. Here, we review the use of satellite remote sensing for assessing spatial and functional changes of ecosystems, with the aim of providing guidance on the use of these data in ecosystem risk assessment. We suggest that decisions on the use of satellite remote sensing should be made a priori and deductively with the assistance of conceptual ecosystem models that identify the primary indicators representing the dynamics of a focal ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Biodiversity Risk in the US: A Spatial Econometric Approach

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Robert P. Berrens

2011-11-01

Full Text Available This study investigates whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC relationship is supported for a measure of biodiversity risk and economic development across the United States (US. Using state-level data for all 48 contiguous states, biodiversity risk is measured using a Modified Index (MODEX. This index is an adaptation of a comprehensive National Biodiversity Risk Assessment Index. The MODEX differs from other measures in that it is takes into account the impact of human activities and conservation measures. The econometric approach includes corrections for spatial autocorrelation effects, which are present in the data. Modeling estimation results do not support the EKC hypothesis for biodiversity risk in the US. This finding is robust over ordinary least squares, spatial error, and spatial lag models, where the latter is shown to be the preferred model. Results from the spatial lag regression show that a 1% increase in human population density is associated with about a 0.19% increase in biodiversity risk. Spatial dependence in this case study explains 30% of the variation, as risk in one state spills over into adjoining states. From a policy perspective, this latter result supports the need for coordinated efforts at state and federal levels to address the problem of biodiversity loss.

Estimating Bird / Aircraft Collision Probabilities and Risk Utilizing Spatial Poisson Processes

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-10

ESTIMATING BIRD/AIRCRAFT COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE...AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES GRADUATE RESEARCH PAPER Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences...COLLISION PROBABILITIES AND RISK UTILIZING SPATIAL POISSON PROCESSES Brady J. Vaira, BS, MS Major, USAF Approved

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model in Rwanda

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Jean Baptiste Nsengiyumva

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Landslides susceptibility assessment has to be conducted to identify prone areas and guide risk management. Landslides in Rwanda are very deadly disasters. The current research aimed to conduct landslide susceptibility assessment by applying Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model with eight layers of causal factors including: slope, distance to roads, lithology, precipitation, soil texture, soil depth, altitude and land cover. In total, 980 past landslide locations were mapped. The relationship between landslide factors and inventory map was calculated using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The results revealed that susceptibility is spatially distributed countrywide with 42.3% of the region classified from moderate to very high susceptibility, and this is inhabited by 49.3% of the total population. In addition, Provinces with high to very high susceptibility are West, North and South (40.4%, 22.8% and 21.5%, respectively. Subsequently, the Eastern Province becomes the peak under low susceptibility category (87.8% with no very high susceptibility (0%. Based on these findings, the employed model produced accurate and reliable outcome in terms of susceptibility, since 49.5% of past landslides fell within the very high susceptibility category, which confirms the model’s performance. The outcomes of this study will be useful for future initiatives related to landslide risk reduction and management.

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model in Rwanda

Science.gov (United States)

Nsengiyumva, Jean Baptiste; Luo, Geping; Nahayo, Lamek; Huang, Xiaotao; Cai, Peng

2018-01-01

Landslides susceptibility assessment has to be conducted to identify prone areas and guide risk management. Landslides in Rwanda are very deadly disasters. The current research aimed to conduct landslide susceptibility assessment by applying Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model with eight layers of causal factors including: slope, distance to roads, lithology, precipitation, soil texture, soil depth, altitude and land cover. In total, 980 past landslide locations were mapped. The relationship between landslide factors and inventory map was calculated using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The results revealed that susceptibility is spatially distributed countrywide with 42.3% of the region classified from moderate to very high susceptibility, and this is inhabited by 49.3% of the total population. In addition, Provinces with high to very high susceptibility are West, North and South (40.4%, 22.8% and 21.5%, respectively). Subsequently, the Eastern Province becomes the peak under low susceptibility category (87.8%) with no very high susceptibility (0%). Based on these findings, the employed model produced accurate and reliable outcome in terms of susceptibility, since 49.5% of past landslides fell within the very high susceptibility category, which confirms the model’s performance. The outcomes of this study will be useful for future initiatives related to landslide risk reduction and management. PMID:29385096

Framework for probabilistic flood risk assessment in an Alpine region

Science.gov (United States)

Schneeberger, Klaus; Huttenlau, Matthias; Steinberger, Thomas; Achleitner, Stefan; Stötter, Johann

2014-05-01

Flooding is among the natural hazards that regularly cause significant losses to property and human lives. The assessment of flood risk delivers crucial information for all participants involved in flood risk management and especially for local authorities and insurance companies in order to estimate the possible flood losses. Therefore a framework for assessing flood risk has been developed and is introduced with the presented contribution. Flood risk is thereby defined as combination of the probability of flood events and of potential flood damages. The probability of occurrence is described through the spatial and temporal characterisation of flood. The potential flood damages are determined in the course of vulnerability assessment, whereas, the exposure and the vulnerability of the elements at risks are considered. Direct costs caused by flooding with the focus on residential building are analysed. The innovative part of this contribution lies on the development of a framework which takes the probability of flood events and their spatio-temporal characteristic into account. Usually the probability of flooding will be determined by means of recurrence intervals for an entire catchment without any spatial variation. This may lead to a misinterpretation of the flood risk. Within the presented framework the probabilistic flood risk assessment is based on analysis of a large number of spatial correlated flood events. Since the number of historic flood events is relatively small additional events have to be generated synthetically. This temporal extrapolation is realised by means of the method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004). It is used to generate a large number of possible spatial correlated flood events within a larger catchment. The approach is based on the modelling of multivariate extremes considering the spatial dependence structure of flood events. The input for this approach are time series derived from river gauging stations. In a next step the

A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

2015-12-18

In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

The flood risk management plan: towards spatial water governance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartmann, T.; Driessen, P.

2017-01-01

The flood risk management plan challenges both water engineers and spatial planners. It calls for a new mode of governance for flood risk management. This contribution analyses how this mode of governance distinguishes from prevalent approaches. Spatial planning and water management in Europe are

A Bayesian method to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings to catastrophic risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Lianfa; Wang, Jinfeng; Leung, Hareton; Zhao, Sisi

2012-06-01

Vulnerability of human beings exposed to a catastrophic disaster is affected by multiple factors that include hazard intensity, environment, and individual characteristics. The traditional approach to vulnerability assessment, based on the aggregate-area method and unsupervised learning, cannot incorporate spatial information; thus, vulnerability can be only roughly assessed. In this article, we propose Bayesian network (BN) and spatial analysis techniques to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings. In our approach, spatial analysis is leveraged to preprocess the data; for example, kernel density analysis (KDA) and accumulative road cost surface modeling (ARCSM) are employed to quantify the influence of geofeatures on vulnerability and relate such influence to spatial distance. The knowledge- and data-based BN provides a consistent platform to integrate a variety of factors, including those extracted by KDA and ARCSM to model vulnerability uncertainty. We also consider the model's uncertainty and use the Bayesian model average and Occam's Window to average the multiple models obtained by our approach to robust prediction of the risk and vulnerability. We compare our approach with other probabilistic models in the case study of seismic risk and conclude that our approach is a good means to mining spatial data sets for evaluating vulnerability. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Opportunities for using spatial property assessment data in air pollution exposure assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keller C Peter

2005-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many epidemiological studies examining the relationships between adverse health outcomes and exposure to air pollutants use ambient air pollution measurements as a proxy for personal exposure levels. When pollution levels vary at neighbourhood levels, using ambient pollution data from sparsely located fixed monitors may inadequately capture the spatial variation in ambient pollution. A major constraint to moving toward exposure assessments and epidemiological studies of air pollution at a neighbourhood level is the lack of readily available data at appropriate spatial resolutions. Spatial property assessment data are widely available in North America and may provide an opportunity for developing neighbourhood level air pollution exposure assessments. Results This paper provides a detailed description of spatial property assessment data available in the Pacific Northwest of Canada and the United States, and provides examples of potential applications of spatial property assessment data for improving air pollution exposure assessment at the neighbourhood scale, including: (1 creating variables for use in land use regression modelling of neighbourhood levels of ambient air pollution; (2 enhancing wood smoke exposure estimates by mapping fireplace locations; and (3 using data available on individual building characteristics to produce a regional air pollution infiltration model. Conclusion Spatial property assessment data are an extremely detailed data source at a fine spatial resolution, and therefore a source of information that could improve the quality and spatial resolution of current air pollution exposure assessments.

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

Spatial Distribution of Mercury (Hg Concentration in Agricultural Soil and Its Risk Assessment on Food Safety in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shanqian Wang

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Soil mercury (Hg pollution in some areas of China is a serious problem and has aroused a lot of attention on a local scale. However, there are few studies on Hg pollution on a national scale. This study collected 444 published papers during 2005–2015 on Hg concentrations in agricultural soil throughout China, under seven land uses, namely: dry land, paddy field, vegetable field, tea garden, orchard, traditional Chinese medicine field and tobacco field, to assess the spatial distribution of Hg concentration and evaluate its influence on food safety. The averaged Hg concentration (0.108 mg/kg was higher than its background (0.065 mg/kg, but much lower than the guidelines (GB15618-1995 II for crop production. The spatial distribution of Hg throughout China showed great variability, with some hotspots due to Hg related mining and smelting activities. According to the Environment Quality Standard for soil in China (GB15618-1995 II, 4.2% of agricultural soil should be abandoned due to Hg pollution, and 2.0% faced a high risk of Hg pollution.

Spatial implications of covariate adjustment on patterns of risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sabel, Clive Eric; Wilson, Jeff Gaines; Kingham, Simon

2007-01-01

Epidemiological studies that examine the relationship between environmental exposures and health often address other determinants of health that may influence the relationship being studied by adjusting for these factors as covariates. While disease surveillance methods routinely control...... for covariates such as deprivation, there has been limited investigative work on the spatial movement of risk at the intraurban scale due to the adjustment. It is important that the nature of any spatial relocation be well understood as a relocation to areas of increased risk may also introduce additional...... localised factors that influence the exposure-response relationship. This paper examines the spatial patterns of relative risk and clusters of hospitalisations based on an illustrative small-area example from Christchurch, New Zealand. A four-stage test of the spatial relocation effects of covariate...

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Spatial risk profiling of Schistosoma japonicum in Eryuan county, Yunnan province, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Steinmann

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Bayesian spatial risk profiling holds promise to enhance our understanding of the epidemiology of parasitic diseases, and to target interventions in a cost-effective manner. Here, we present findings from a study using Bayesian variogram models to map and predict the seroprevalence of Schistosoma japonicum in Eryuan county, Yunnan province, China, including risk factor analysis. Questionnaire and serological data were obtained through a cross-sectional survey carried out in 35 randomly selected villages with 3,220 people enrolled. Remotely-sensed environmental data were derived from publicly available databases. Bivariate and non-spatial Bayesian multiple logistic regression models were used to identify associations between the local seroprevalence and demographic (i.e. age and sex, environmental (i.e. location of village, altitude, slope, land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index and socio-economic factors. In the spatially-explicit Bayesian model, S. japonicum seroprevalence was significantly associated with sex, age and the location of the village. Males, those aged below 10 years and inhabitants of villages situated on steep slopes (inclination ≥20° or on less precipitous slopes of >5° above 2,150 m were at lower risk of seroconversion than their respective counterparts. Our final prediction model revealed an elevated risk for seroconversion in the plains of the eastern parts of Eryuan county. In conclusion, the prediction map can be utilized for spatial targeting of schistosomiasis control interventions in Eryuan county. Moreover, S. japonicum seroprevalence studies might offer a convenient means to assess the infection pressure experienced by local communities, and to improve risk profiling in areas where the prevalence and infection intensities have come down following repeated rounds of praziquantel administration.

Spatial abilities and anatomy knowledge assessment: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Langlois, Jean; Bellemare, Christian; Toulouse, Josée; Wells, George A

2017-06-01

Anatomy knowledge has been found to include both spatial and non-spatial components. However, no systematic evaluation of studies relating spatial abilities and anatomy knowledge has been undertaken. The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the relationship between spatial abilities test and anatomy knowledge assessment. A literature search was done up to March 20, 2014 in Scopus and in several databases on the OvidSP and EBSCOhost platforms. Of the 556 citations obtained, 38 articles were identified and fully reviewed yielding 21 eligible articles and their quality were formally assessed. Non-significant relationships were found between spatial abilities test and anatomy knowledge assessment using essays and non-spatial multiple-choice questions. Significant relationships were observed between spatial abilities test and anatomy knowledge assessment using practical examination, three-dimensional synthesis from two-dimensional views, drawing of views, and cross-sections. Relationships between spatial abilities test and anatomy knowledge assessment using spatial multiple-choice questions were unclear. The results of this systematic review provide evidence for spatial and non-spatial methods of anatomy knowledge assessment. Anat Sci Educ 10: 235-241. © 2016 American Association of Anatomists. © 2016 American Association of Anatomists.

Conceptual geoinformation model of natural hazards risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Kulygin, Valerii

2016-04-01

Natural hazards are the major threat to safe interactions between nature and society. The assessment of the natural hazards impacts and their consequences is important in spatial planning and resource management. Today there is a challenge to advance our understanding of how socio-economical and climate changes will affect the frequency and magnitude of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks. However, the impacts from different types of natural hazards on various marine and coastal economic activities are not of the same type. In this study, the conceptual geomodel of risk assessment is presented to highlight the differentiation by the type of economic activities in extreme events risk assessment. The marine and coastal ecosystems are considered as the objects of management, on the one hand, and as the place of natural hazards' origin, on the other hand. One of the key elements in describing of such systems is the spatial characterization of their components. Assessment of ecosystem state is based on ecosystem indicators (indexes). They are used to identify the changes in time. The scenario approach is utilized to account for the spatio-temporal dynamics and uncertainty factors. Two types of scenarios are considered: scenarios of using ecosystem services by economic activities and scenarios of extreme events and related hazards. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No. 16-35-60043 mol_a_dk.

A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Metzger, M.J.; Schröter, D.; Leemans, R.; Cramer, W.

2008-01-01

Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant

A spatial scan statistic for nonisotropic two-level risk cluster.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiao-Zhou; Wang, Jin-Feng; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Li, Zhong-Jie; Lai, Sheng-Jie

2012-01-30

Spatial scan statistic methods are commonly used for geographical disease surveillance and cluster detection. The standard spatial scan statistic does not model any variability in the underlying risks of subregions belonging to a detected cluster. For a multilevel risk cluster, the isotonic spatial scan statistic could model a centralized high-risk kernel in the cluster. Because variations in disease risks are anisotropic owing to different social, economical, or transport factors, the real high-risk kernel will not necessarily take the central place in a whole cluster area. We propose a spatial scan statistic for a nonisotropic two-level risk cluster, which could be used to detect a whole cluster and a noncentralized high-risk kernel within the cluster simultaneously. The performance of the three methods was evaluated through an intensive simulation study. Our proposed nonisotropic two-level method showed better power and geographical precision with two-level risk cluster scenarios, especially for a noncentralized high-risk kernel. Our proposed method is illustrated using the hand-foot-mouth disease data in Pingdu City, Shandong, China in May 2009, compared with two other methods. In this practical study, the nonisotropic two-level method is the only way to precisely detect a high-risk area in a detected whole cluster. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Shallow landslide prediction and analysis with risk assessment using a spatial model in the coastal region in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Camarinha, P. I. M.; Canavesi, V.; Alvalá, R. C. S.

2013-10-01

In Brazil, most of the disasters involving landslide occur in coastal regions, with population density concentrated on steep slopes. Thus, different approaches have been used to evaluate the landslide risk, although the greatest difficulty is related to the scarcity of spatial data with good quality. In this context, four cities located on the southeast coast of Brazil - Santos, Cubatão, Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba - in a region with the rough reliefs of the Serra do Mar and with a history of natural disasters were evaluated. Spatial prediction by fuzzy gamma technique was used for the landslide susceptibility mapping, considering environmental variables from data and software in the public domain. To validate the susceptibility mapping results, it was overlapped with risk sectors provided by the Geological Survey of Brazil (CPRM). A positive correlation was observed between the classes most susceptible and the location of these sectors. The results were also analyzed from the categorization of risk levels provided by CPRM. To compare the approach with other studies using landslide-scar maps, correlated indexes were evaluated, which also showed satisfactory results, thus indicating that the methodology presented is appropriate for risk assessment in urban areas and can be replicated to municipalities that do not have risk areas mapped.

The role of interactions along the flood process chain and implications for risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Apel, Heiko; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Lüdtke, Stefan; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Floods with their manifold characteristics are shaped by various processes along the flood process chain - from triggering meteorological extremes through catchment and river network process down to impacts on societies. In flood risk systems numerous interactions and feedbacks along the process chain may occur which finally shape spatio-temporal flood patterns and determine the ultimate risk. In this talk, we review some important interactions in the atmosphere-catchment, river-dike-floodplain and vulnerability compartments of the flood risk system. We highlight the importance of spatial interactions for flood hazard and risk assessment. For instance, the role of spatial rainfall structure or wave superposition in river networks is elucidated with selected case studies. In conclusion, we show the limits of current methods in assessment of large-scale flooding and outline the approach to more comprehensive risk assessment based on our regional flood risk model (RFM) for Germany.

Human health risk assessment with spatial analysis: Study of a population chronically exposed to arsenic through drinking water from Argentina

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Navoni, J.A.; De Pietri, D.; Olmos, V.; Gimenez, C.; Bovi Mitre, G.

2014-01-01

Arsenic (As) is a ubiquitous element widely distributed in the environment. This metalloid has proven carcinogenic action in man. The aim of this work was to assess the health risk related to As exposure through drinking water in an Argentinean population, applying spatial analytical techniques in addition to conventional approaches. The study involved 650 inhabitants from Chaco and Santiago del Estero provinces. Arsenic in drinking water (Asw) and urine (UAs) was measured by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average daily dose (ADD), hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR) were estimated, geo-referenced and integrated with demographical data by a health composite index (HI) applying geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Asw covered a wide range of concentration: from non-detectable (ND) to 2000 μg/L. More than 90% of the population was exposed to As, with UAs levels above the intervention level of 100 μg/g creatinine. GIS analysis described an expected level of exposure lower than the observed, indicating possible additional source/s of exposure to inorganic arsenic. In 68% of the locations, the population had a HQ greater than 1, and the CR ranged between 5·10 −5 and 2,1·10 −2 . An environmental exposure area through ADD geo-referencing defined a baseline scenario for space-time risk assessment. The time of residence, the demographic density and the potential health considered outcomes helped characterize the health risk in the region. The geospatial analysis contributed to delimitate and analyze the change tendencies of risk in the region, broadening the scopes of the results for a decision-making process. - Highlights: • Risk assessment (RA) to As using deterministic procedures • Integration of RA through deterministic procedures with GIS tools • Analysis of the time-space behavior of the risk area • Analysis of As effect outcomes through HI • Broaden the scopes of deterministic approaches

Human health risk assessment with spatial analysis: Study of a population chronically exposed to arsenic through drinking water from Argentina

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Navoni, J.A., E-mail: jnavoni@ffyb.uba.ar [Cátedra de Toxicología y Química Legal, Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Junín 956, C1113AAD Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (Argentina); De Pietri, D., E-mail: depietrid@hotmail.com [Dirección Nacional de Determinantes de la Salud e Investigación, Ministerio de Salud de la Nación, Av. 9 de Julio 1925, C1073ABA Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Olmos, V. [Cátedra de Toxicología y Química Legal, Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Junín 956, C1113AAD Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Gimenez, C. [Cátedra Química Analítica I, Universidad Nacional del Chaco Austral. Cmte., Fernández 755 (3700), Pres. Roque Sáenz Peña, Chaco (Argentina); Bovi Mitre, G. [Grupo INQA (Investigación Química Aplicada) Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional de Jujuy, Alberdi 47, piso 1, San Salvador de Jujuy, Jujuy CP 4600 (Argentina); and others

2014-11-15

Arsenic (As) is a ubiquitous element widely distributed in the environment. This metalloid has proven carcinogenic action in man. The aim of this work was to assess the health risk related to As exposure through drinking water in an Argentinean population, applying spatial analytical techniques in addition to conventional approaches. The study involved 650 inhabitants from Chaco and Santiago del Estero provinces. Arsenic in drinking water (Asw) and urine (UAs) was measured by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average daily dose (ADD), hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR) were estimated, geo-referenced and integrated with demographical data by a health composite index (HI) applying geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Asw covered a wide range of concentration: from non-detectable (ND) to 2000 μg/L. More than 90% of the population was exposed to As, with UAs levels above the intervention level of 100 μg/g creatinine. GIS analysis described an expected level of exposure lower than the observed, indicating possible additional source/s of exposure to inorganic arsenic. In 68% of the locations, the population had a HQ greater than 1, and the CR ranged between 5·10{sup −5} and 2,1·10{sup −2}. An environmental exposure area through ADD geo-referencing defined a baseline scenario for space-time risk assessment. The time of residence, the demographic density and the potential health considered outcomes helped characterize the health risk in the region. The geospatial analysis contributed to delimitate and analyze the change tendencies of risk in the region, broadening the scopes of the results for a decision-making process. - Highlights: • Risk assessment (RA) to As using deterministic procedures • Integration of RA through deterministic procedures with GIS tools • Analysis of the time-space behavior of the risk area • Analysis of As effect outcomes through HI • Broaden the scopes of deterministic approaches.

An exploration of spatial risk assessment for soil protection: estimating risk and establishing priority areas for soil protection.

Science.gov (United States)

Kibblewhite, M G; Bellamy, P H; Brewer, T R; Graves, A R; Dawson, C A; Rickson, R J; Truckell, I; Stuart, J

2014-03-01

Methods for the spatial estimation of risk of harm to soil by erosion by water and wind and by soil organic matter decline are explored. Rates of harm are estimated for combinations of soil type and land cover (as a proxy for hazard frequency) and used to estimate risk of soil erosion and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) for 1 km(2)pixels. Scenarios are proposed for defining the acceptability of risk of harm to soil: the most precautionary one corresponds to no net harm after natural regeneration of soil (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance of exceeding an erosion rate of soils and a carbon stock decline of 0 tha(-1)y(-1) for organic soils). Areas at higher and lower than possible acceptable risk are mapped. The veracity of boundaries is compromised if areas of unacceptable risk are mapped to administrative boundaries. Errors in monitoring change in risk of harm to soil and inadequate information on risk reduction measures' efficacy, at landscape scales, make it impossible to use or monitor quantitative targets for risk reduction adequately. The consequences for priority area definition of expressing varying acceptable risk of harm to soil as a varying probability of exceeding a fixed level of harm, or, a varying level of harm being exceeded with a fixed probability, are discussed. Soil data and predictive models for rates of harm to soil would need considerable development and validation to implement a priority area approach robustly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Altered visual-spatial attention to task-irrelevant information is associated with falls risk in older adults

Science.gov (United States)

Nagamatsu, Lindsay S.; Munkacsy, Michelle; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa; Handy, Todd C.

2014-01-01

Executive cognitive functions play a critical role in falls risk – a pressing health care issue in seniors. In particular, intact attentional processing is integral for safe mobility and navigation. However, the specific contribution of impaired visual-spatial attention in falls remains unclear. In this study, we examined the association between visual-spatial attention to task-irrelevant stimuli and falls risk in community-dwelling older adults. Participants completed a visual target discrimination task at fixation while task-irrelevant probes were presented in both visual fields. We assessed attention to left and right peripheral probes using event-related potentials (ERPs). Falls risk was determined using the valid and reliable Physiological Profile Assessment (PPA). We found a significantly positive association between reduced attentional facilitation, as measured by the N1 ERP component, and falls risk. This relationship was specific to probes presented in the left visual field and measured at ipsilateral electrode sites. Our results suggest that fallers exhibit reduced attention to the left side of visual space and provide evidence that impaired right hemispheric function and/or structure may contribute to falls. PMID:24436970

Ecological and health risks assessment and spatial distribution of residual heavy metals in the soil of an e-waste circular economy park in Tianjin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Wei; Gao, Guanghai; Geng, Jinyao; Li, Yao; Wang, Yingying

2018-04-01

Ziya Circular Economy Park is the biggest e-waste recycle park in North China before 2011, its function was then transformed in response to regulations and rules. In this paper, investigation was conducted to research the residual concentrations of 14 analytes (12 heavy metals and 2 non-metals) in the surface soil of Ziya Circular Economy Park and surrounding area. Both ecological and health assessments were evaluated using GI (geo-accumulation index) and NPI (Nemerow pollution index), and associated health risk was assessed by using USEPA model. According to the ecological risk assessment, Cu, Sb, Cd, Zn and Co were seriously enriched in the soil of the studied area. The health risk assessment proposed by USEPA indicated no significant health risks to the population. Soil properties, such as pH and organic matter, were found to correlate with the enrichment of heavy metals. Arsenic concentrations in the soil were found positively correlated to dead bacteria concentrations. Spatial distribution of heavy metals revealed that Ziya Circular Economy Park was the dominant pollution source in the studied area. Findings in this study suggest that enough attention should be payed to the heavy metal pollution in Ziya Circular Economy Park. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2014-03-01

There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2011-01-01

The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

Pollution Characteristics and Health Risk Assessment of Airborne Heavy Metals Collected from Beijing Bus Stations.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Xiaoxia; Zhao, Wenji; Yan, Xing; Shu, Tongtong; Xiong, Qiulin; Chen, Fantao

2015-08-17

Airborne dust, which contains high levels of toxic metals, is recognized as one of the most harmful environment component. The purpose of this study was to evaluate heavy metals pollution in dustfall from bus stations in Beijing, and to perform a risk assessment analysis for adult passengers. The concentrations of Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS). The spatial distribution, pollution level and potential health risk of heavy metals were analyzed by Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping technology, geo-accumulation index and health risk assessment model, respectively. The results indicate that dust samples have elevated metal concentrations, especially for Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn. The nine metals can be divided into two categories in terms of spatial distribution and pollution level. Cd, Cr, Cu, Mo, Pb and Zn reach contaminated level and have similar spatial patterns with hotspots distributed within the Fifth Ring Road. While the hot spot areas of Co and V are always out of the Fifth Ring Road. Health risk assessment shows that both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of selected metals were within the safe range.

Pollution Characteristics and Health Risk Assessment of Airborne Heavy Metals Collected from Beijing Bus Stations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoxia Zheng

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Airborne dust, which contains high levels of toxic metals, is recognized as one of the most harmful environment component. The purpose of this study was to evaluate heavy metals pollution in dustfall from bus stations in Beijing, and to perform a risk assessment analysis for adult passengers. The concentrations of Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS. The spatial distribution, pollution level and potential health risk of heavy metals were analyzed by Geographic Information System (GIS mapping technology, geo-accumulation index and health risk assessment model, respectively. The results indicate that dust samples have elevated metal concentrations, especially for Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn. The nine metals can be divided into two categories in terms of spatial distribution and pollution level. Cd, Cr, Cu, Mo, Pb and Zn reach contaminated level and have similar spatial patterns with hotspots distributed within the Fifth Ring Road. While the hot spot areas of Co and V are always out of the Fifth Ring Road. Health risk assessment shows that both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of selected metals were within the safe range.

Spatial Variation and Assessment of Heavy Metal and Radioactive Risk in Farmland around a Retired Uranium Mine

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Jie; Shi, Chen-hao; Zeng, Guang-ming; Zhong, Min-zhou; Yuan, Yu-jie

2017-07-01

In recent years, heavy metal contamination in the environment has been attracted worldwide attention due to their toxicity, persistence,extensive sources and non-biodegradable properties. We herein investigate variation trend and risk of heavy metal and radiation distribution in the former mine stope, former mineral ore stockyard, and mine road with surface soils of a retired uranium mine in the mid-south of China. The mean concentrations (mg/kg) of Pb,Cd,Cu,Zn,As,Hg,Cr,Mn,Ni,U, and 232Th were analyzed according to the corresponding background values in Hunan, China. The Geo-accumulation index (Igeo ) were used for the assessment of pollution level of heavy metals and the radioactive elements of U and 232Th. Then, Pollution load index (PLI) and GIS techniquewere integrated to assess spatial distribution of heavy metal contamination and radioactive contamination. Results confirmed that three areas in the retired uranium mine was a primary source of pollution, which showed anthropogenic origin mainly from agricultural runoff, hydrometallurgy from chemical industries, radioactive tailings, and electroplating industriesfinally drained into Zishui River and Xiangjiang River. Based on the actual situation, some suggestions were put forward for the treatment of the retired uranium mine in conclusion.

Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

Science.gov (United States)

Gaitan, S.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2015-06-01

Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall, socioeconomic characteristics, and social sensing, may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several spatial datasets have been recently made available in the Netherlands, including rainfall-related incident reports made by citizens, spatially distributed rain depths, semidistributed socioeconomic information, and buildings age. Inspecting the potential of this data to explain the occurrence of rainfall related incidents has not been done yet. Multivariate analysis tools for describing communities and environmental patterns have been previously developed and used in the field of study of ecology. The objective of this paper is to outline opportunities for these tools to explore urban flooding risks patterns in the mentioned datasets. To that end, a cluster analysis is performed. Results indicate that incidence of rainfall-related impacts is higher in areas characterized by older infrastructure and higher population density.

Human health risk assessment with spatial analysis: study of a population chronically exposed to arsenic through drinking water from Argentina.

Science.gov (United States)

Navoni, J A; De Pietri, D; Olmos, V; Gimenez, C; Bovi Mitre, G; de Titto, E; Villaamil Lepori, E C

2014-11-15

Arsenic (As) is a ubiquitous element widely distributed in the environment. This metalloid has proven carcinogenic action in man. The aim of this work was to assess the health risk related to As exposure through drinking water in an Argentinean population, applying spatial analytical techniques in addition to conventional approaches. The study involved 650 inhabitants from Chaco and Santiago del Estero provinces. Arsenic in drinking water (Asw) and urine (UAs) was measured by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average daily dose (ADD), hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR) were estimated, geo-referenced and integrated with demographical data by a health composite index (HI) applying geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Asw covered a wide range of concentration: from non-detectable (ND) to 2000 μg/L. More than 90% of the population was exposed to As, with UAs levels above the intervention level of 100 μg/g creatinine. GIS analysis described an expected level of exposure lower than the observed, indicating possible additional source/s of exposure to inorganic arsenic. In 68% of the locations, the population had a HQ greater than 1, and the CR ranged between 5·10(-5) and 2,1·10(-2). An environmental exposure area through ADD geo-referencing defined a baseline scenario for space-time risk assessment. The time of residence, the demographic density and the potential health considered outcomes helped characterize the health risk in the region. The geospatial analysis contributed to delimitate and analyze the change tendencies of risk in the region, broadening the scopes of the results for a decision-making process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial proximity and the risk of psychopathology after a terrorist attack

OpenAIRE

DiMaggio, Charles; Galea, Sandro; Emch, Michael

2010-01-01

Previous studies concerned with the relation of proximity to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and subsequent psychopathology have produced conflicting results. The goals of this analysis are to assess the appropriateness of using Bayesian hierarchical spatial techniques to answer the question of the role of proximity to a mass trauma as a risk factor for psychopathology. Using a set of individual-level Medicaid data for New York State, and controlling for age, gender, median household...

Spatial Distribution, Sources Apportionment and Health Risk of Metals in Topsoil in Beijing, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunyuan Sun

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In order to acquire the pollution feature and regularities of distribution of metals in the topsoil within the sixth ring road in Beijing, a total of 46 soil samples were collected, and the concentrations of twelve elements (Nickel, Ni, Lithium, Li, Vanadium, V, Cobalt, Co, Barium, Ba, Strontium, Sr, Chrome, Cr, Molybdenum, Mo, Copper, Cu, Cadmium, Cd, Zinc, Zn, Lead, Pb were analyzed. Geostatistics and multivariate statistics were conducted to identify spatial distribution characteristics and sources. In addition, the health risk of the analyzed heavy metals to humans (adult was evaluated by an U.S. Environmental Protection Agency health risk assessment model. The results indicate that these metals have notable variation in spatial scale. The concentration of Cr was high in the west and low in the east, while that of Mo was high in the north and low in the south. High concentrations of Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb were found in the central part of the city. The average enrichment degree of Cd is 5.94, reaching the standard of significant enrichment. The accumulation of Cr, Mo, Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb is influenced by anthropogenic activity, including vehicle exhaustion, coal burning, and industrial processes. Health risk assessment shows that both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks of selected heavy metals are within the safety standard and the rank of the carcinogenic risk of the four heavy metals is Cr > Co > Ni > Cd.

Spatial Distribution, Sources Apportionment and Health Risk of Metals in Topsoil in Beijing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Chunyuan; Zhao, Wenji; Zhang, Qianzhong; Yu, Xue; Zheng, Xiaoxia; Zhao, Jiayin; Lv, Ming

2016-07-20

In order to acquire the pollution feature and regularities of distribution of metals in the topsoil within the sixth ring road in Beijing, a total of 46 soil samples were collected, and the concentrations of twelve elements (Nickel, Ni, Lithium, Li, Vanadium, V, Cobalt, Co, Barium, Ba, Strontium, Sr, Chrome, Cr, Molybdenum, Mo, Copper, Cu, Cadmium, Cd, Zinc, Zn, Lead, Pb) were analyzed. Geostatistics and multivariate statistics were conducted to identify spatial distribution characteristics and sources. In addition, the health risk of the analyzed heavy metals to humans (adult) was evaluated by an U.S. Environmental Protection Agency health risk assessment model. The results indicate that these metals have notable variation in spatial scale. The concentration of Cr was high in the west and low in the east, while that of Mo was high in the north and low in the south. High concentrations of Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb were found in the central part of the city. The average enrichment degree of Cd is 5.94, reaching the standard of significant enrichment. The accumulation of Cr, Mo, Cu, Cd, Zn, and Pb is influenced by anthropogenic activity, including vehicle exhaustion, coal burning, and industrial processes. Health risk assessment shows that both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks of selected heavy metals are within the safety standard and the rank of the carcinogenic risk of the four heavy metals is Cr > Co > Ni > Cd.

Vulnerability assessment of archaeological sites to earthquake hazard: An indicator based method integrating spatial and temporal aspects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Despina Minos-Minopoulos

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Across the world, numerous sites of cultural heritage value are at risk from a variety of human-induced and natural hazards such as war and earthquakes. Here we present and test a novel indicator-based method for assessing the vulnerability of archaeological sites to earthquakes. Vulnerability is approached as a dynamic element assessed through a combination of spatial and temporal parameters. The spatial parameters examine the susceptibility of the sites to the secondary Earthquake Environmental Effects of ground liquefaction, landslides and tsunami and are expressed through the Spatial Susceptibility Index (SSi. Parameters of physical vulnerability, economic importance and visitors density examine the temporal vulnerability of the sites expressed through the Temporal Vulnerability Index (TVi. The equally weighted sum of the spatial and temporal indexes represents the total Archaeological Site Vulnerability Index (A.S.V.I.. The A.S.V.I method is applied at 16 archaeological sites across Greece, allowing an assessment of their vulnerability. This then allows the establishment of a regional and national priority list for considering future risk mitigation. Results indicate that i the majority of the sites have low to moderate vulnerability to earthquake hazard, ii Neratzia Fortress on Kos and Heraion on Samos are characterised as highly vulnerable and should be prioritised for further studies and mitigation measures, and iii the majority of the sites are susceptible to at least one Earthquake Environmental Effect and present relatively high physical vulnerability attributed to the existing limited conservation works. This approach highlights the necessity for an effective vulnerability assessment methodology within the existing framework of disaster risk management for cultural heritage.

The Spatial Distributions and Variations of Water Environmental Risk in Yinma River Basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Di, Hui; Liu, Xingpeng; Zhang, Jiquan; Tong, Zhijun; Ji, Meichen

2018-03-15

Water environmental risk is the probability of the occurrence of events caused by human activities or the interaction of human activities and natural processes that will damage a water environment. This study proposed a water environmental risk index (WERI) model to assess the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin based on hazards, exposure, vulnerability, and regional management ability indicators in a water environment. The data for each indicator were gathered from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal variations in water environmental risk using particle swarm optimization and the analytic hierarchy process (PSO-AHP) method. The results showed that the water environmental risk in the Yinma River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2015. The risk level of the water environment was high in Changchun, while the risk levels in Yitong and Yongji were low. The research methods provide information to support future decision making by the risk managers in the Yinma River Basin, which is in a high-risk water environment. Moreover, water environment managers could reduce the risks by adjusting the indicators that affect water environmental risks.

An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-09-01

Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment, spatial distribution, and source apportionment of heavy metals in Chinese surface soils from a typically tobacco cultivated area.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Haiwei; Wang, Haiyun; Zhang, Yan; Yuan, Jumin; Peng, Yaodong; Li, Xiuchun; Shi, Yi; He, Kuanxin; Zhang, Qiming

2018-06-01

The heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in the surface soils of tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) fields in Jiangxi Province were analyzed, and the mean heavy metal concentrations were 3.55, 0.19, 25.89, 14.96, 0.25, 10.89, 27.80, and 44.00 mg/kg, respectively. Spatial distribution analysis showed that the highest concentrations were recorded in the north-western, south-western, and mid-eastern parts of the study area. The index of geo-accumulation and pollution index indicated modest enrichment with Cd and Hg, which were the only two metals posing a potentially high ecological risk to the local agricultural environment. The health risk assessment showed no considerable non-carcinogenic or carcinogenic risks for children and adults from these elements. The principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) found that the variations in the Cr and Ni concentrations were largely on account of the soil parent rocks, but the As, Cd, Cu, and Hg variations in the soil were largely owing to agricultural practices of years. However, the main factor influencing Pb and Zn was atmospheric deposition.

Spatial modelling of malaria risk factors in Ruhuha sector in the east ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Spatial clusters of malaria occurrence were subsequently determined using Getis and Ord spatial statistics. This cluster analysis showed that malaria distribution is characterized by zones with high malaria risk, so called hot spots, zones with moderate malaria risk known as not significant spots and zones of low malaria risk ...

The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gething Peter W

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution, LandScan (~1 km, UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km, and GPW3 (~5 km. More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was

Spatial and temporal distribution of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in a drinking water resource: Implications for monitoring and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burnet, Jean-Baptiste, E-mail: jeanbaptiste.burnet@gmail.com [Centre de Recherche Public - Gabriel Lippmann, Department of Environment and Agro-biotechnologies (EVA), 41, rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux (Luxembourg); Université de Liège (ULg), Department of Environmental Sciences and Management, 165 avenue de Longwy, B-6700 Arlon (Belgium); Penny, Christian, E-mail: penny@lippmann.lu [Centre de Recherche Public - Gabriel Lippmann, Department of Environment and Agro-biotechnologies (EVA), 41, rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux (Luxembourg); Ogorzaly, Leslie, E-mail: ogorzaly@lippmann.lu [Centre de Recherche Public - Gabriel Lippmann, Department of Environment and Agro-biotechnologies (EVA), 41, rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux (Luxembourg); Cauchie, Henry-Michel, E-mail: cauchie@lippmann.lu [Centre de Recherche Public - Gabriel Lippmann, Department of Environment and Agro-biotechnologies (EVA), 41, rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux (Luxembourg)

2014-02-01

Because of their significant public health impact, waterborne Cryptosporidium and Giardia have been monitored in surface water in order to assess microbial quality of water bodies used for drinking water production and/or for recreational purposes. In this context, sampling strategy is of key importance and should be representative enough to appropriately assess the related microbial risk. This, however, requires sound knowledge on the behaviour of both pathogens in water. In the present study, the spatial and temporal distribution of Cryptosporidium and Giardia was explored in the rural Upper-Sûre watershed used for drinking water production in Luxembourg. By subdividing it into three compartments including (i) sub-catchments, (ii) the Sûre River fed by the sub-catchments and (iii) the Upper-Sûre reservoir fed by the Sûre River, parasite distribution was assessed using sampling designs adapted to the hydro-dynamic characteristics of the respective compartments. Results highlighted the high spatial and temporal variability in parasite distribution at watershed scale, as well as the prevalence of Giardia over Cryptosporidium. Besides land use features and catchment characteristics, hydro-climatology appeared to be a major driver of parasite behaviour in the watershed. It introduced a seasonal trend in their occurrence, highest densities being detected during the wet season. Peaks of contamination triggered out by rainfall-induced runoff were further observed in the three compartments. In the Sûre River, Cryptosporidium and Giardia fluxes peaked at 10{sup 9} and 10{sup 10} (oo)cysts.d{sup −1}, respectively, and were discharged into the drinking water reservoir, where they underwent a 2 to 3 log{sub 10} removal rate. Despite this, parasite fluxes entering the drinking water treatment plant were still high (10{sup 6} to 10{sup 7} (oo)cysts.d{sup −1}) and stressed on the need for improved watershed management upstream the water treatment barrier. The catchment

Spatial and temporal distribution of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in a drinking water resource: Implications for monitoring and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burnet, Jean-Baptiste; Penny, Christian; Ogorzaly, Leslie; Cauchie, Henry-Michel

2014-01-01

Because of their significant public health impact, waterborne Cryptosporidium and Giardia have been monitored in surface water in order to assess microbial quality of water bodies used for drinking water production and/or for recreational purposes. In this context, sampling strategy is of key importance and should be representative enough to appropriately assess the related microbial risk. This, however, requires sound knowledge on the behaviour of both pathogens in water. In the present study, the spatial and temporal distribution of Cryptosporidium and Giardia was explored in the rural Upper-Sûre watershed used for drinking water production in Luxembourg. By subdividing it into three compartments including (i) sub-catchments, (ii) the Sûre River fed by the sub-catchments and (iii) the Upper-Sûre reservoir fed by the Sûre River, parasite distribution was assessed using sampling designs adapted to the hydro-dynamic characteristics of the respective compartments. Results highlighted the high spatial and temporal variability in parasite distribution at watershed scale, as well as the prevalence of Giardia over Cryptosporidium. Besides land use features and catchment characteristics, hydro-climatology appeared to be a major driver of parasite behaviour in the watershed. It introduced a seasonal trend in their occurrence, highest densities being detected during the wet season. Peaks of contamination triggered out by rainfall-induced runoff were further observed in the three compartments. In the Sûre River, Cryptosporidium and Giardia fluxes peaked at 10 9 and 10 10 (oo)cysts.d −1 , respectively, and were discharged into the drinking water reservoir, where they underwent a 2 to 3 log 10 removal rate. Despite this, parasite fluxes entering the drinking water treatment plant were still high (10 6 to 10 7 (oo)cysts.d −1 ) and stressed on the need for improved watershed management upstream the water treatment barrier. The catchment-wide analysis described here

Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Gaitan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall, socioeconomic characteristics, and social sensing, may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several spatial datasets have been recently made available in the Netherlands, including rainfall-related incident reports made by citizens, spatially distributed rain depths, semidistributed socioeconomic information, and buildings age. Inspecting the potential of this data to explain the occurrence of rainfall related incidents has not been done yet. Multivariate analysis tools for describing communities and environmental patterns have been previously developed and used in the field of study of ecology. The objective of this paper is to outline opportunities for these tools to explore urban flooding risks patterns in the mentioned datasets. To that end, a cluster analysis is performed. Results indicate that incidence of rainfall-related impacts is higher in areas characterized by older infrastructure and higher population density.

Assessing the Development of Kenya National Spatial Data ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Spatial data plays a vital role in developmental activities, whether natural resource management or socio-economic development. Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDIs) facilitate access, sharing and dissemination of spatial data necessary for complex decision-making processes of the future. Thus, conducting SDI assessment ...

Spatial analysis of environment and population at risk of natural gas fracking in the state of Pennsylvania, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Qingmin

2015-05-15

Hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, has been increasing exponentially across the United States, which holds the largest known shale gas reserves in the world. Studies have found that the high-volume horizontal hydraulic fracturing process (HVHFP) threatens water resources, harms air quality, changes landscapes, and damages ecosystems. However, there is minimal research focusing on the spatial study of environmental and human risks of HVHFP, which is necessary for state and federal governments to administer, regulate, and assess fracking. Integrating GIS and spatial kernel functions, we study the presently operating fracking wells across the state of Pennsylvania (PA), which is the main part of the current hottest Marcellus Shale in US. We geographically process the location data of hydraulic fracturing wells, 2010 census block data, urbanized region data, railway data, local road data, open water data, river data, and wetland data for the state of PA. From this we develop a distance based risk assessment in order to understand the environmental and urban risks. We generate the surface data of fracking well intensity and population intensity by integrating spatial dependence, semivariogram modeling, and a quadratic kernel function. The surface data of population risk generated by the division of fracking well intensity and population intensity provide a novel insight into the local and regional regulation of hydraulic fracturing activities in terms of environmental and health related risks due to the proximity of fracking wells. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Spatial Analysis and Safety Assessment of Social and Economic Development of Small and Medium Cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Anatolyevna Orekhova

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the spatial patterns of socio-economic development of small and medium-sized cities in the Volgograd region. We know that small and medium-sized cities as spatial socio-economic systems are not only the support frame of settlement, but the main “engine” of innovative impulses for the surrounding periphery. The scientific novelty of the study consists in the effort to implement a spatial approach to the assessment of the economic security of small and medium-sized cities (SCR. The content of the economic security of cities is determined by two system characteristics of the socio-economic system: economic activity (EA and quality of life (QL of the urban population, or SCR = F (EA; QL. For finding spatial patterns in GIS, great interest is in investigating the environment of each city by calculating the local statistical characteristics of geo-variability which allow assessing trends of spatial variation of the six components of security (human security, technosphere safety, environmental safety, etc., local variations in emissions and their values indicators Ki. The successful solution of these problems is possible with the use of tools of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA in ARCGIS, and in particular, the Voronoy maps. The spatial approach has allowed to perform an integrated assessment of the economic security and to evaluate safety risks in small and medium-sized cities of the Volgograd region with the security system of indicators.

GLOBOX : A spatially differentiated global fate, intake and effect model for toxicity assessment in LCA

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wegener Sleeswijk, Anneke; Heijungs, Reinout

GLOBOX is a model for the calculation of spatially differentiated LCA toxicity characterisation factors on a global scale. It can also be used for human and environmental risk assessment. The GLOBOX model contains equations for the calculation of fate, intake and effect factors, and equations for

Spatial dependence and correlation of rainfall in the Danube catchment and its role in flood risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Martina, M. L. V.; Vitolo, R.; Todini, E.; Stephenson, D. B.; Cook, I. M.

2009-04-01

The possibility that multiple catastrophic events occur within a given timespan and affect the same portfolio of insured properties may induce enhanced risk. For this reason, in the insurance industry it is of interest to characterise not only the point probability of catastrophic events, but also their spatial structure. As far as floods are concerned it is important to determine the probability of having multiple simultaneous events in different parts of the same basin: in this case, indeed, the loss in a portfolio can be significantly different. Understanding the spatial structure of the precipitation field is a necessary step for the proper modelling of the spatial dependence and correlation of river discharge. Several stochastic models are available in the scientific literature for the multi-site generation of precipitation. Although most models achieve good performance in modelling mean values, temporal variability and inter-site dependence of extremes are still delicate issues. In this work we aim at identifying the main spatial characteristics of the precipitation structure and then at analysing them in a real case. We consider data from a large network of raingauges in the Danube catchment. This catchment is a good example of a large-scale catchment where the spatial correlation of flood events can radically change the effect in term of flood damage.

Wildfire Risk Assessment in a Typical Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interface of Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Wildfire risk assessment in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface of Greece.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Spatial and temporal distribution of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in a drinking water resource: implications for monitoring and risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Burnet, Jean-Baptiste; Penny, Christian; Ogorzaly, Leslie; Cauchie, Henry-Michel

2014-02-15

Because of their significant public health impact, waterborne Cryptosporidium and Giardia have been monitored in surface water in order to assess microbial quality of water bodies used for drinking water production and/or for recreational purposes. In this context, sampling strategy is of key importance and should be representative enough to appropriately assess the related microbial risk. This, however, requires sound knowledge on the behaviour of both pathogens in water. In the present study, the spatial and temporal distribution of Cryptosporidium and Giardia was explored in the rural Upper-Sûre watershed used for drinking water production in Luxembourg. By subdividing it into three compartments including (i) sub-catchments, (ii) the Sûre River fed by the sub-catchments and (iii) the Upper-Sûre reservoir fed by the Sûre River, parasite distribution was assessed using sampling designs adapted to the hydro-dynamic characteristics of the respective compartments. Results highlighted the high spatial and temporal variability in parasite distribution at watershed scale, as well as the prevalence of Giardia over Cryptosporidium. Besides land use features and catchment characteristics, hydro-climatology appeared to be a major driver of parasite behaviour in the watershed. It introduced a seasonal trend in their occurrence, highest densities being detected during the wet season. Peaks of contamination triggered out by rainfall-induced runoff were further observed in the three compartments. In the Sûre River, Cryptosporidium and Giardia fluxes peaked at 10(9) and 10(10) (oo)cysts.d(-1), respectively, and were discharged into the drinking water reservoir, where they underwent a 2 to 3 log10 removal rate. Despite this, parasite fluxes entering the drinking water treatment plant were still high (10(6) to 10(7) (oo)cysts.d(-1)) and stressed on the need for improved watershed management upstream the water treatment barrier. The catchment-wide analysis described here

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

Spatial Characteristics, Health Risk Assessment and Sustainable Management of Heavy Metals and Metalloids in Soils from Central China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Li

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The contents of seven toxic metals (Cu, Cr, Cd, Zn, Pb, Hg and As in soils from Central China, including Henan Province, Hubei Province and Hunan Province, were collected from published papers from 2007 to 2017. The geoaccumulation index, health risk assessment model and statistics were adopted to study the spatial contamination pattern, to assess the human health risks and to identify the priority control pollutants. The concentrations of soil metals in Central China, especially Cd (1.31 mg/kg, Pb (44.43 mg/kg and Hg (0.19 mg/kg, surpassed their corresponding background values, and the Igeo values of Cd and Hg varied the most, ranging from the unpolluted level to the extremely polluted level. The concentrations of toxic metals were higher in the southern and northern parts of Central China, contrasting to the lowest contents in the middle parts. For non-carcinogenic risk, the hazard index (HI values for the children in Hubei Province (1.10 and Hunan Province (1.41 exceeded the safe level of one, with higher health risks to children than adults, and the hazard quotient (HQ values of the three exposure pathways for both children and adults in Central China decreased in the following order: ingestion > dermal contact > inhalation. For carcinogenic risk (CR, the CR values for children in Hubei Province (2.55 × 10−4, Hunan Province (3.44 × 10−4 and Henan Province (1.69 × 10−4, and the CR for adults in Hubei Province (3.67 × 10−5, Hunan Province (4.92 × 10−5 and Henan Province (2.45 × 10−5 exceeded the unacceptable level (10−4 and acceptable level (10−6, respectively. Arsenic (As appeared to be the main metalloid for both children and adults causing the high carcinogenic risk. For sustainable development in Central China, special attention should be paid to Cd, Hg, Cr, Pb and As, identified as the priority control soil metals. Importance should also be attached to public education, source control, and the remediation of the

Spatial and temporal ecological risk assessment of unionized ammonia nitrogen in Tai Lake, China (2004-2015).

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yabing; Xu, Elvis Genbo; Liu, Wei; Chen, Yi; Liu, Hongling; Li, Di; Liu, Zhengtao; Giesy, John P; Yu, Hongxia

2017-06-01

Ammonia toxicity varies largely due to its pH- and temperature-dependent speciation (unionized ammonia nitrogen, NH 3 -N). The seasonal and long-term trend of ammonia risk in ecologically significant sections of Tai Lake, China was unknown. In this study, a two-level (deterministic and quantitative) method was developed to assess the special ecological risks posed by NH 3 -N at 37 sites during two seasons (February and September) of 2014 in Tai Lake. The long-term temporal (2004-2015) risk posed by NH 3 -N was also assessed by comparing annual quantitative risk values (probability of exceeding acute or chronic threshold values) in three key sections of Tai Lake. The results indicated the species living in the Tai Lake were at a 0.04% and 32.45% chance of risk due to acute exposure, and a 1.97% and 92.05% chance of risk due to chronic exposure in February and September of 2014, respectively. Alarmingly, the chronic ecological risks of NH 3 -N in the Lanshanzui section of the Tai Lake remained >30% from 2004 to 2011. The chronic risk of NH 3 -N in all three key sections of Tai Lake started to decrease in 2011. This was likely the consequence of the control practice of eutrophication implemented in the Tai Lake. A significant decline in diversity of the benthic invertebrate community of the Tai Lake could be associated with continuous exposure to ammonia over decades given different sensitivity of taxa to ammonia. The results laid a scientific foundation for risk assessment and management of ammonia in Tai Lake, China, and the developed two-level risk assessment approach can also be applied to other similar aquatic regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Development of a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model to assess population exposure at a regional scale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caudeville, Julien, E-mail: Julien.CAUDEVILLE@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Joint research unit UMR 6599, Heudiasyc (Heuristic and Diagnoses of Complex Systems), University of Technology of Compiegne and CNRS, Rue du Dr Schweitzer, 60200 Compiegne (France); Bonnard, Roseline, E-mail: Roseline.BONNARD@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Boudet, Celine, E-mail: Celine.BOUDET@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Denys, Sebastien, E-mail: Sebastien.DENYS@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Govaert, Gerard, E-mail: gerard.govaert@utc.fr [Joint research unit UMR 6599, Heudiasyc (Heuristic and Diagnoses of Complex Systems), University of Technology of Compiegne and CNRS, Rue du Dr Schweitzer, 60200 Compiegne (France); Cicolella, Andre, E-mail: Andre.CICOLELLA@ineris.fr [INERIS (French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France)

2012-08-15

Analyzing the relationship between the environment and health has become a major focus of public health efforts in France, as evidenced by the national action plans for health and the environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: -identify and manage geographic areas where hotspot exposures are a potential risk to human health; and -reduce exposure inequalities. The aim of this study is to develop a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model for detecting vulnerable populations and analyzing exposure determinants at a fine resolution and regional scale. A multimedia exposure model was developed by INERIS to assess the transfer of substances from the environment to humans through inhalation and ingestion pathways. The RESPIR project adds a spatial dimension by linking GIS (Geographic Information System) to the model. Tools are developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interesting variables and indicators from different supports and resolutions on a 1-km{sup 2} regular grid. We applied this model to the risk assessment of exposure to metals (cadmium, lead and nickel) using data from a region in France (Nord-Pas-de-Calais). The considered exposure pathways include the atmospheric contaminant inhalation and ingestion of soil, vegetation, meat, egg, milk, fish and drinking water. Exposure scenarios are defined for different reference groups (age, dietary properties, and the fraction of food produced locally). The two largest risks correspond to an ancient industrial site (Metaleurop) and the Lille agglomeration. In these areas, cadmium, vegetation ingestion and soil contamination are the principal determinants of the computed risk. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a multimedia exposure model for mapping environmental disparities. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We perform a risk assessment on a region of France at a fine scale for three metals. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We

Development of a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model to assess population exposure at a regional scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caudeville, Julien; Bonnard, Roseline; Boudet, Céline; Denys, Sébastien; Govaert, Gérard; Cicolella, André

2012-01-01

Analyzing the relationship between the environment and health has become a major focus of public health efforts in France, as evidenced by the national action plans for health and the environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: -identify and manage geographic areas where hotspot exposures are a potential risk to human health; and -reduce exposure inequalities. The aim of this study is to develop a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model for detecting vulnerable populations and analyzing exposure determinants at a fine resolution and regional scale. A multimedia exposure model was developed by INERIS to assess the transfer of substances from the environment to humans through inhalation and ingestion pathways. The RESPIR project adds a spatial dimension by linking GIS (Geographic Information System) to the model. Tools are developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interesting variables and indicators from different supports and resolutions on a 1-km 2 regular grid. We applied this model to the risk assessment of exposure to metals (cadmium, lead and nickel) using data from a region in France (Nord-Pas-de-Calais). The considered exposure pathways include the atmospheric contaminant inhalation and ingestion of soil, vegetation, meat, egg, milk, fish and drinking water. Exposure scenarios are defined for different reference groups (age, dietary properties, and the fraction of food produced locally). The two largest risks correspond to an ancient industrial site (Metaleurop) and the Lille agglomeration. In these areas, cadmium, vegetation ingestion and soil contamination are the principal determinants of the computed risk. -- Highlights: ► We present a multimedia exposure model for mapping environmental disparities. ► We perform a risk assessment on a region of France at a fine scale for three metals. ► We examine exposure determinants and detect vulnerable population. ► The largest

Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

2012-12-01

Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

Contribution of industrial density and socioeconomic status to the spatial distribution of thyroid cancer risk in Hangzhou, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Fei, Xufeng; Lou, Zhaohan; Christakos, George; Liu, Qingmin; Ren, Yanjun; Wu, Jiaping

2018-02-01

The thyroid cancer (TC) incidence in China has increased dramatically during the last three decades. Typical in this respect is the case of Hangzhou city (China), where 7147 new TC cases were diagnosed during the period 2008-2012. Hence, the assessment of the TC incidence risk increase due to environmental exposure is an important public health matter. Correlation analysis, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Poisson regression were first used to evaluate the statistical association between TC and key risk factors (industrial density and socioeconomic status). Then, the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) theory and the integrative disease predictability (IDP) criterion were combined to quantitatively assess both the overall and the spatially distributed strength of the "exposure-disease" association. Overall, higher socioeconomic status was positively correlated with higher TC risk (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.687, P<0.01). Compared to people of low socioeconomic status, people of median and high socioeconomic status showed higher TC risk: the Relative Risk (RR) and associated 95% confidence interval (CI) were found to be, respectively, RR=2.29 with 95% CI=1.99 to 2.63, and RR=3.67 with 95% CI=3.22 to 4.19. The "industrial density-TC incidence" correlation, however, was non-significant. Spatially, the "socioeconomic status-TC" association measured by the corresponding IDP coefficient was significant throughout the study area: the mean IDP value was -0.12 and the spatial IDP values were consistently negative at the township level. It was found that stronger associations were distributed among residents mainly on a stripe of land from northeast to southwest (consisting mainly of sub-district areas). The "industrial density-TC" association measured by its IDP coefficient was spatially non-consistent. Socioeconomic status is an important indicator of TC risk factor in Hangzhou (China) whose effect varies across space. Hence, socioeconomic status shows the highest TC

Preliminary risk assessment of the Mexican Spotted Owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Pratt, L.E.

1997-02-01

The Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory requires that the Department of Energy takes special precautions to protect the Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). In order to do so, risk to the owl presented by radiological and nonradiological contaminants must be estimated. A preliminary risk assessment on the Mexican Spotted Owl in two Ecological Exposure Units (EEUs) was performed using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient method, the FORTRAN model ECORSK4, and a geographic information system. Estimated doses to the owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime were compared against toxicological reference doses generating hazard indices (HIs) and hazard quotients (HQs) for three risk source types. The average HI was 0.20 for EEU-21 and 0.0015 for EEU-40. Under the risk parameter assumptions made, hazard quotient results indicated no unacceptable risk to the owl, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. An HI of 1.0 was used as the evaluative criteria for determining the acceptability of risk. This value was exceeded (1.06) in only one of 200 simulated potential nest sites. Cesium-137, Ni, {sup 239}Pu, Al and {sup 234}U we`re among the constituents with the highest partial HQs. Improving model realism by weighting simulated owl foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased the estimated risk by 72% (0.5 HI units) for EEU-21 and by 97.6% (6.3E-02 HI units) for EEU-40. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, owl habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at acceptably low levels.

Preliminary risk assessment of the Mexican Spotted Owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime at the Los Alamos National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.; Pratt, L.E.

1997-02-01

The Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory requires that the Department of Energy takes special precautions to protect the Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida). In order to do so, risk to the owl presented by radiological and nonradiological contaminants must be estimated. A preliminary risk assessment on the Mexican Spotted Owl in two Ecological Exposure Units (EEUs) was performed using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient method, the FORTRAN model ECORSK4, and a geographic information system. Estimated doses to the owl under a spatially-weighted foraging regime were compared against toxicological reference doses generating hazard indices (HIs) and hazard quotients (HQs) for three risk source types. The average HI was 0.20 for EEU-21 and 0.0015 for EEU-40. Under the risk parameter assumptions made, hazard quotient results indicated no unacceptable risk to the owl, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. An HI of 1.0 was used as the evaluative criteria for determining the acceptability of risk. This value was exceeded (1.06) in only one of 200 simulated potential nest sites. Cesium-137, Ni, 239 Pu, Al and 234 U we're among the constituents with the highest partial HQs. Improving model realism by weighting simulated owl foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased the estimated risk by 72% (0.5 HI units) for EEU-21 and by 97.6% (6.3E-02 HI units) for EEU-40. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, owl habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations in order to maintain risk from contaminants at acceptably low levels

Spatial scale effects in environmental risk-factor modelling for diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ram K. Raghavan

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Studies attempting to identify environmental risk factors for diseases can be seen to extract candidate variables from remotely sensed datasets, using a single buffer-zone surrounding locations from where disease status are recorded. A retrospective case-control study using canine leptospirosis data was conducted to verify the effects of changing buffer-zones (spatial extents on the risk factors derived. The case-control study included 94 case dogs predominantly selected based on positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR test for leptospires in urine, and 185 control dogs based on negative PCR. Land cover features from National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD and Kansas Gap Analysis Program (KS GAP around geocoded addresses of cases/controls were extracted using multiple buffers at every 500 m up to 5,000 m, and multivariable logistic models were used to estimate the risk of different land cover variables to dogs. The types and statistical significance of risk factors identified changed with an increase in spatial extent in both datasets. Leptospirosis status in dogs was significantly associated with developed high-intensity areas in models that used variables extracted from spatial extents of 500-2000 m, developed medium-intensity areas beyond 2,000 m and up to 3,000 m, and evergreen forests beyond 3,500 m and up to 5,000 m in individual models in the NLCD. Significant associations were seen in urban areas in models that used variables extracted from spatial extents of 500-2,500 m and forest/woodland areas beyond 2,500 m and up to 5,000 m in individual models in Kansas gap analysis programme datasets. The use of ad hoc spatial extents can be misleading or wrong, and the determination of an appropriate spatial extent is critical when extracting environmental variables for studies. Potential work-arounds for this problem are discussed.

Bovine respiratory syncytial virus and bovine coronavirus antibodies in bulk tank milk - risk factors and spatial analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Toftaker, Ingrid; Sanchez, Javier; Stokstad, Maria; Nødtvedt, Ane

2016-10-01

Bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) and bovine coronavirus (BCoV) are considered widespread among cattle in Norway and worldwide. This cross-sectional study was conducted based on antibody-ELISA of bulk tank milk (BTM) from 1347 herds in two neighboring counties in western Norway. The study aims were to determine the seroprevalence at herd level, to evaluate risk factors for BRSV and BCoV seropositivity, and to assess how these factors were associated with the spatial distribution of positive herds. The overall prevalence of BRSV and BCoV positive herds in the region was 46.2% and 72.2%, respectively. Isopleth maps of the prevalence risk distribution showed large differences in prevalence risk across the study area, with the highest prevalence in the northern region. Common risk factors of importance for both viruses were herd size, geographic location, and proximity to neighbors. Seropositivity for one virus was associated with increased odds of seropositivity for the other virus. Purchase of livestock was an additional risk factor for BCoV seropositivity, included in the model as in-degree, which was defined as the number of incoming movements from individual herds, through animal purchase, over a period of five years. Local dependence and the contribution of risk factors to this effect were assessed using the residuals from two logistic regression models for each virus. One model contained only the x- and y- coordinates as predictors, the other had all significant predictors included. Spatial clusters of high values of residuals were detected using the normal model of the spatial scan statistic and visualized on maps. Adjusting for the risk factors in the final models had different impact on the spatial clusters for the two viruses: For BRSV the number of clusters was reduced from six to four, for BCoV the number of clusters remained the same, however the log-likelihood ratios changed notably. This indicates that geographical differences in proximity to

Focus maps: a means of prioritizing data collection for efficient geo-risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Massimiliano Pittore

2015-04-01

Full Text Available  Efficient Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR management constantly calls upon high-quality information to be collected or updated for vulnerability monitoring and risk assessment. This process is often resource- and time-intensive, which many economically developing states (including most Central Asian countries can seldom afford. In this paper, we introduce the concept of focus maps as a useful tool to quantify the spatial probability of sampling. Focus maps allow for a data collection prioritization scheme to be put in place, enabling the realization of optimized spatial sampling which assigns a higher priority to locations where the need for high-quality information is greater. In practice, smaller samples can be drawn with the same (or better resulting accuracy of the estimates, resulting in a more efficient use of time and resources. The factors that affect such a spatial sampling scheme include the usual components of risk assessment (hazard, exposure, vulnerability where available, as well as other potentially critical factors, such as the extent and quality of previously collected data. The practical application of the proposed approach to the case of Central Asia will be exemplified and discussed.

Spatial clustering and local risk of leprosy in São Paulo, Brazil.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Although the detection rate is decreasing, the proportion of new cases with WHO grade 2 disability (G2D is increasing, creating concern among policy makers and the Brazilian government. This study aimed to identify spatial clustering of leprosy and classify high-risk areas in a major leprosy cluster using the SatScan method.Data were obtained including all leprosy cases diagnosed between January 2006 and December 2013. In addition to the clinical variable, information was also gathered regarding the G2D of the patient at diagnosis and after treatment. The Scan Spatial statistic test, developed by Kulldorff e Nagarwalla, was used to identify spatial clustering and to measure the local risk (Relative Risk-RR of leprosy. Maps considering these risks and their confidence intervals were constructed.A total of 434 cases were identified, including 188 (43.31% borderline leprosy and 101 (23.28% lepromatous leprosy cases. There was a predominance of males, with ages ranging from 15 to 59 years, and 51 patients (11.75% presented G2D. Two significant spatial clusters and three significant spatial-temporal clusters were also observed. The main spatial cluster (p = 0.000 contained 90 census tracts, a population of approximately 58,438 inhabitants, detection rate of 22.6 cases per 100,000 people and RR of approximately 3.41 (95%CI = 2.721-4.267. Regarding the spatial-temporal clusters, two clusters were observed, with RR ranging between 24.35 (95%CI = 11.133-52.984 and 15.24 (95%CI = 10.114-22.919.These findings could contribute to improvements in policies and programming, aiming for the eradication of leprosy in Brazil. The Spatial Scan statistic test was found to be an interesting resource for health managers and healthcare professionals to map the vulnerability of areas in terms of leprosy transmission risk and areas of underreporting.

Spatial clustering and local risk of leprosy in São Paulo, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Antônio Carlos Vieira; Yamamura, Mellina; Arroyo, Luiz Henrique; Popolin, Marcela Paschoal; Chiaravalloti Neto, Francisco; Palha, Pedro Fredemir; Uchoa, Severina Alice da Costa; Pieri, Flávia Meneguetti; Pinto, Ione Carvalho; Fiorati, Regina Célia; Queiroz, Ana Angélica Rêgo de; Belchior, Aylana de Souza; Dos Santos, Danielle Talita; Garcia, Maria Concebida da Cunha; Crispim, Juliane de Almeida; Alves, Luana Seles; Berra, Thaís Zamboni; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre

2017-02-01

Although the detection rate is decreasing, the proportion of new cases with WHO grade 2 disability (G2D) is increasing, creating concern among policy makers and the Brazilian government. This study aimed to identify spatial clustering of leprosy and classify high-risk areas in a major leprosy cluster using the SatScan method. Data were obtained including all leprosy cases diagnosed between January 2006 and December 2013. In addition to the clinical variable, information was also gathered regarding the G2D of the patient at diagnosis and after treatment. The Scan Spatial statistic test, developed by Kulldorff e Nagarwalla, was used to identify spatial clustering and to measure the local risk (Relative Risk-RR) of leprosy. Maps considering these risks and their confidence intervals were constructed. A total of 434 cases were identified, including 188 (43.31%) borderline leprosy and 101 (23.28%) lepromatous leprosy cases. There was a predominance of males, with ages ranging from 15 to 59 years, and 51 patients (11.75%) presented G2D. Two significant spatial clusters and three significant spatial-temporal clusters were also observed. The main spatial cluster (p = 0.000) contained 90 census tracts, a population of approximately 58,438 inhabitants, detection rate of 22.6 cases per 100,000 people and RR of approximately 3.41 (95%CI = 2.721-4.267). Regarding the spatial-temporal clusters, two clusters were observed, with RR ranging between 24.35 (95%CI = 11.133-52.984) and 15.24 (95%CI = 10.114-22.919). These findings could contribute to improvements in policies and programming, aiming for the eradication of leprosy in Brazil. The Spatial Scan statistic test was found to be an interesting resource for health managers and healthcare professionals to map the vulnerability of areas in terms of leprosy transmission risk and areas of underreporting.

Risk Assessment of Sediment Pollution Using Geostatistical Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Golay, J.; Kanevski, M.

2012-04-01

Environmental monitoring networks (EMN) discreetly measure the intensities of continuous phenomena (e.g. pollution, temperature, etc.). Spatial prediction models, like kriging, are then used for modeling. But, they give rise to smooth representations of phenomena which leads to overestimations or underestimations of extreme values. Moreover, they do not reproduce the spatial variability of the original data and the corresponding uncertainties. When dealing with risk assessment, this is unacceptable, since extreme values must be retrieved and probabilities of exceeding given thresholds must be computed [Kanevski et al., 2009]. In order to overcome these obstacles, geostatistics provides another approach: conditional stochastic simulations. Here, the basic idea is to generate multiple estimates of variable values (e.g. pollution concentration) at every location of interest which are calculated as stochastic realizations of an unknown random function (see, for example, [Kanevski, 2008], where both theoretical concepts and real data case studies are presented in detail). Many algorithms implement this approach. The most widely used in spatial modeling are sequential Gaussian simulations/cosimulations, sequential indicator simulations/cosimulations and direct simulations. In the present study, several algorithms of geostatistical conditional simulations were applied on real data collected from Lake Geneva. The main objectives were to compare their effectiveness in reproducing global statistics (histograms, variograms) and the way they characterize the variability and uncertainty of the contamination patterns. The dataset is composed of 200 measurements of the contamination of the lake sediments by heavy metals (i.e. Cadmium, Mercury, Zinc, Copper, Titanium and Chromium). The results obtained show some differences highlighting that risk assessment can be influenced by the algorithm it relies on. Moreover, hybrid models based on machine learning algorithms and

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

2013-01-01

Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Spatial Optimization of Future Urban Development with Regards to Climate Risk and Sustainability Objectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Caparros-Midwood, Daniel; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

2017-11-01

Future development in cities needs to manage increasing populations, climate-related risks, and sustainable development objectives such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Planners therefore face a challenge of multidimensional, spatial optimization in order to balance potential tradeoffs and maximize synergies between risks and other objectives. To address this, a spatial optimization framework has been developed. This uses a spatially implemented genetic algorithm to generate a set of Pareto-optimal results that provide planners with the best set of trade-off spatial plans for six risk and sustainability objectives: (i) minimize heat risks, (ii) minimize flooding risks, (iii) minimize transport travel costs to minimize associated emissions, (iv) maximize brownfield development, (v) minimize urban sprawl, and (vi) prevent development of greenspace. The framework is applied to Greater London (U.K.) and shown to generate spatial development strategies that are optimal for specific objectives and differ significantly from the existing development strategies. In addition, the analysis reveals tradeoffs between different risks as well as between risk and sustainability objectives. While increases in heat or flood risk can be avoided, there are no strategies that do not increase at least one of these. Tradeoffs between risk and other sustainability objectives can be more severe, for example, minimizing heat risk is only possible if future development is allowed to sprawl significantly. The results highlight the importance of spatial structure in modulating risks and other sustainability objectives. However, not all planning objectives are suited to quantified optimization and so the results should form part of an evidence base to improve the delivery of risk and sustainability management in future urban development. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

Science.gov (United States)

Pinzon, Jorge E.

2010-01-01

This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

Poultry, pig and the risk of BSE following the feed ban in France--a spatial analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Abrial, David; Calavas, Didier; Jarrige, Nathalie; Ducrot, Christian

2005-01-01

A spatial analysis was carried out in order to analyse the reason why the risk of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) was spatially heterogeneous in France, during the period following the feed ban of Meat and Bone Meal to cattle. The hypothesis of cross-contamination between cattle feedstuff and monogastric feedstuff, which was strongly suggested from previous investigations, was assessed, with the assumption that the higher the pig or poultry density is in a given area, the higher the risk of cross-contamination and cattle infection might be. The data concerned the 467 BSE cases born in France after the ban of meat and bone meal (July 1990) and detected between July 1st, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance system was optimal and not spatially biased. The disease mapping models were elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing (hierarchical approach) and covariates. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The main result was that the poultry density did not significantly influence the risk of BSE whereas the pig density was significantly associated with an increase in the risk of 2.4% per 10 000 pigs. The areas with a significant pig effect were located in regions with a high pig density as well as a high ratio of pigs to cattle. Despite the absence of a global effect of poultry density on the BSE risk, some areas had a significant poultry effect and the risk was better explained in some others when considering both pig and poultry densities. These findings were in agreement with the hypothesis of cross-contamination, which could take place at the feedstuff factory, during the shipment of food or on the farm. Further studies are needed to more precisely explore how the cross-contamination happened.

Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Jena, Jyotirmay; Schmitz, Oswald J

2015-03-01

Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human-carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator-prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution for predicting where carnivores access livestock, we examined the spatial attributes associated with livestock killed by tigers in Kanha Tiger Reserve, India, using risk models generated at 20, 100, and 200-m spatial grains. We analyzed land-use, human presence, and vegetation structure variables at 138 kill sites and 439 random sites to identify key landscape attributes where livestock were vulnerable to tigers. Land-use and human presence variables contributed strongly to predation risk models, with most variables showing high relative importance (≥0.85) at all spatial grains. The risk of a tiger killing livestock increased near dense forests and near the boundary of the park core zone where human presence is restricted. Risk was nonlinearly related to human infrastructure and open vegetation, with the greatest risk occurring 1.2 km from roads, 1.1 km from villages, and 8.0 km from scrubland. Kill sites were characterized by denser, patchier, and more complex vegetation with lower visibility than random sites. Risk maps revealed high-risk hot spots inside of the core zone boundary and in several patches in the human-dominated buffer zone. Validation against known kills revealed predictive accuracy for only the 20 m model, the resolution best representing the kill stage of hunting for large carnivores that ambush prey, like the tiger. Results demonstrate that risk models developed at fine spatial grains can offer accurate guidance on landscape attributes livestock should

Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

Science.gov (United States)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Assessment of flood susceptible areas using spatially explicit, probabilistic multi-criteria decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Zhongqian; Zhang, Hua; Yi, Shanzhen; Xiao, Yangfan

2018-03-01

GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support flood risk assessment. However, conventional GIS-MCDA methods fail to adequately represent spatial variability and are accompanied with considerable uncertainty. It is, thus, important to incorporate spatial variability and uncertainty into GIS-based decision analysis procedures. This research develops a spatially explicit, probabilistic GIS-MCDA approach for the delineation of potentially flood susceptible areas. The approach integrates the probabilistic and the local ordered weighted averaging (OWA) methods via Monte Carlo simulation, to take into account the uncertainty related to criteria weights, spatial heterogeneity of preferences and the risk attitude of the analyst. The approach is applied to a pilot study for the Gucheng County, central China, heavily affected by the hazardous 2012 flood. A GIS database of six geomorphological and hydrometeorological factors for the evaluation of susceptibility was created. Moreover, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed to investigate the robustness of the model. The results indicate that the ensemble method improves the robustness of the model outcomes with respect to variation in criteria weights and identifies which criteria weights are most responsible for the variability of model outcomes. Therefore, the proposed approach is an improvement over the conventional deterministic method and can provides a more rational, objective and unbiased tool for flood susceptibility evaluation.

SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SLIDE PRESENTATION)

Science.gov (United States)

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

OpenAIRE

Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

2012-01-01

In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is ...

The Theory and Assessment of Spatial Straightness Error Matched New Generation GPS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, X B; Sheng, X L; Jiang, X Q; Li, Z

2006-01-01

In order to assess spatial straightness error matched new generation Dimensional Geometrical Product Specification and Verification (GPS), the theory of spatial straightness error assessing is proposed and its advantages are analyzed based on metrology and statistics in this paper. Then, the assessing parameter system is proposed and it is testified in real application comparing to assessment result of the geometric tolerance theory. Statistical parameters of this assessing system post the different characteristics of spatial straightness error, and can reveal the impact of spatial straightness error on the accessory function more roundly to complement the single assessing parameter of geometrical tolerance for straightness error. The statistical spatial straightness tolerance and statistical spatial straightness error proposed in this paper is possible to be applied in evaluation of other error of form, orientation, location and run-out

Applying spatial regression to evaluate risk factors for microbiological contamination of urban groundwater sources in Juba, South Sudan

Science.gov (United States)

Engström, Emma; Mörtberg, Ulla; Karlström, Anders; Mangold, Mikael

2017-06-01

This study developed methodology for statistically assessing groundwater contamination mechanisms. It focused on microbial water pollution in low-income regions. Risk factors for faecal contamination of groundwater-fed drinking-water sources were evaluated in a case study in Juba, South Sudan. The study was based on counts of thermotolerant coliforms in water samples from 129 sources, collected by the humanitarian aid organisation Médecins Sans Frontières in 2010. The factors included hydrogeological settings, land use and socio-economic characteristics. The results showed that the residuals of a conventional probit regression model had a significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I = 3.05, I-stat = 9.28); therefore, a spatial model was developed that had better goodness-of-fit to the observations. The most significant factor in this model ( p-value 0.005) was the distance from a water source to the nearest Tukul area, an area with informal settlements that lack sanitation services. It is thus recommended that future remediation and monitoring efforts in the city be concentrated in such low-income regions. The spatial model differed from the conventional approach: in contrast with the latter case, lowland topography was not significant at the 5% level, as the p-value was 0.074 in the spatial model and 0.040 in the traditional model. This study showed that statistical risk-factor assessments of groundwater contamination need to consider spatial interactions when the water sources are located close to each other. Future studies might further investigate the cut-off distance that reflects spatial autocorrelation. Particularly, these results advise research on urban groundwater quality.

Ecological risk assessment of protected species at a military installation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.L.; Faulk, S.T.; Lukin, C.; Kochel, M.J.

1995-01-01

A quantitative ecological risk assessment was performed to determine adverse effects posed by potential chemical contamination for two state-protected mammal species (Skull Valley pocket gopher and spotted bat) known to occur or potentially occur within the confines of the US Army Dugway Proving Ground, Utah. Surface soil and prey items were analyzed for metals and total petroleum hydrocarbons. Concentrations of the target analytes in forage were estimated. Receptor-specific biological parameters and the use of a geographic information system allowed the risk assessment to be tailored to the very different natural histories of the two mammals. A grid of interpolated soil concentrations was created for the entire base using measured soil concentrations and knowledge of site history. Spatially-averaged soil exposure concentrations were calculated using receptor home range areas. Doses were stochastically computed using the probability density functions of soil exposure concentration data, biomagnification factors, and measured prey concentration data. An extensive literature search provided the ecotoxicological benchmark values for the contaminants and hazard quotients were computed. The use of receptor-specific information and a geographic information system for spatial analysis of contaminant concentrations and animal exposure allowed a more precise estimate of risk for these two state-protected mammal species

Spatial Analysis of Human Health Risk Due to Arsenic Exposure through Drinking Groundwater in Taiwan's Pingtung Plain.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Ching-Ping; Chien, Yi-Chi; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Chen, Ching-Fang; Chen, Jui-Sheng

2017-01-14

Chronic arsenic (As) exposure continues to be a public health problem of major concern worldwide, affecting hundreds of millions of people. A long-term groundwater quality survey has revealed that 20% of the groundwater in southern Taiwan's Pingtung Plain is clearly contaminated with a measured As concentration in excess of the maximum level of 10 µg/L recommended by the World Health Organization. The situation is further complicated by the fact that more than half of the inhabitants in this area continue to use groundwater for drinking. Efforts to assess the health risk associated with the ingestion of As from the contaminated drinking water are required in order to determine the priorities for health risk management. The conventional approach to conducting a human health risk assessment may be insufficient for this purpose, so this study adopts a geostatistical Kriging method to perform a spatial analysis of the health risk associated with ingesting As through drinking groundwater in the Pingtung Plain. The health risk is assessed based on the hazard quotient (HQ) and target cancer risk (TR) established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The results show that most areas where the HQ exceeds 1 are in the southwestern part of the study area. In addition, the high-population density townships of Daliao, Linyuan, Donggang, Linbian, Jiadong, and Fangliao presently have exceedingly high TR values that are two orders of magnitude higher than the acceptable standard. Thus, the use of groundwater for drinking in these townships should be strictly avoided. A map that delineates areas with high TR values and high population densities is provided. The findings broaden the scope of the spatial analysis of human health risk and provide a basis for improving the decision-making process.

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Monitoring of emerging pollutants in Guadiamar River basin (South of Spain): analytical method, spatial distribution and environmental risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Garrido, Eva; Camacho-Muñoz, Dolores; Martín, Julia; Santos, Antonio; Santos, Juan Luis; Aparicio, Irene; Alonso, Esteban

2016-12-01

Guadiamar River is located in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula and connects two protected areas in the South of Spain: Sierra Morena and Doñana National Park. It is sited in an area affected by urban, industrial and agriculture sewage pollution and with tradition on intensive mining activities. Most of the studies performed in this area have been mainly focused on the presence of heavy metals and, until now, little is known about the occurrence of other contaminants such as emerging organic pollutants (EOPs). In this work, an analytical method has been optimized and validated for monitoring of forty-seven EOPs in surface water. The analytical method has been applied to study the distribution and environmental risk of these pollutants in Guadiamar River basin. The analytical method was based on solid-phase extraction and determination by liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole-tandem mass spectrometry. The 60 % of the target compounds were found in the analyzed samples. The highest concentrations were found for two plasticizers (bisphenol A and di(2-ethyhexyl)phthalate, mean concentration up to 930 ng/L) and two pharmaceutical compounds (caffeine (up to 623 ng/L) and salicylic acid (up to 318 ng/L)). This study allowed to evaluate the potential sources (industrial or urban) of the studied compounds and the spatial distribution of their concentrations along the river. Environmental risk assessment showed a major risk on the south of the river, mainly due to discharges of wastewater effluents.

Spatial Distribution of Infection Risk of SARS Transmission in a Hospital Ward

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qian, Hua; Li, Yuguo; Nielsen, Peter V.

2009-01-01

The classical Wells-Riley model for predicting risk of airborne transmission of diseases assumes a uniform spatial distribution of the infected cases in an enclosed space. A new mathematical model is developed here for predicting the spatial distribution of infection risk of airborne transmitted ......, such as inpatients in a hospital ward, passengers in an airplane etc....

A GIS-based human health risk assessment for urban green space planning--an example from Grugliasco (Italy).

Science.gov (United States)

Poggio, Laura; Vrscaj, Borut

2009-11-15

The need to develop approaches for risk-based management of soil contamination, as well as the integration of the assessment of the human health risk (HHR) due to the soil contamination in the urban planning procedures has been the subject of recent attention of scientific literature and policy makers. The spatial analysis of environmental data offers multiple advantages for studying soil contamination and HHR assessment, facilitating the decision making process. The aim of this study was to explore the possibilities and benefits of spatial implementation of a quantitative HHR assessment methodology for a planning case in a typical urban environment where the soil is contaminated. The study area is located in the city of Grugliasco a part of the Turin (Italy) metropolitan area. The soils data were derived from a site specific soil survey and the land-use data from secondary sources. In the first step the soil contamination data were geo-statistically analysed and a spatial soil contamination data risk modelling procedure designed. In order to spatially assess the HHR computer routines were developed using GIS raster tools. The risk was evaluated for several different land uses for the planned naturalistic park area. The HHR assessment indicated that the contamination of soils with heavy metals in the area is not sufficient to induce considerable health problems due to typical human behaviour within the variety of urban land uses. An exception is the possibility of direct ingestion of contaminated soil which commonly occurs in playgrounds. The HHR evaluation in a planning case in the Grugliasco Municipality confirms the suitability of the selected planning option. The construction of the naturalistic park presents one solution for reducing the impacts of soil contamination on the health of citizens. The spatial HHR evaluation using GIS techniques is a diagnostic procedure for assessing the impacts of urban soil contamination, with which one can verify planning

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

The role of the spatial resolution of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for marine transport risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleg Andrejev

2011-05-01

Full Text Available The paper addresses the sensitivity of a novel method for quantifying the environmental risks associated with the current-driven transport of adverse impacts released from offshore sources (e.g. ship traffic with respect to the spatial resolution of the underlying hydrodynamic model. The risk is evaluated as the probability of particles released in different sea areas hitting the coast and in terms of the time after which the hit occurs (particle age on the basis of a statistical analysis of large sets of 10-day long Lagrangian trajectories calculated for 1987-1991 for the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea. The relevant 2D maps are calculated using the OAAS model with spatial resolutions of 2, 1 and 0.5 nautical miles (nm and with identical initial, boundary and forcing conditions from the Rossby Centre 3D hydrodynamic model (RCO, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The spatially averaged values of the probability and particle age display hardly any dependence on the resolution. They both reach almost identical stationary levels (0.67-0.69 and ca 5.3 days respectively after a few years of simulations. Also, the spatial distributions of the relevant fields are qualitatively similar for all resolutions. In contrast, the optimum locations for fairways depend substantially on the resolution, whereas the results for the 2 nm model differ considerably from those obtained using finer-resolution models. It is concluded that eddy-permitting models with a grid step exceeding half the local baroclinic Rossby radius are suitable for a quick check of whether or not any potential gain from this method is feasible, whereas higher-resolution simulations with eddy-resolving models are necessary for detailed planning. The asymptotic values of the average probability and particle age are suggested as an indicator of the potential gain from the method in question and also as a new measure of the vulnerability of the nearshore of water bodies to

Spatial modelling of population at risk and PM 2.5 exposure index: A ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

However, monitoring, spatial representation and development of associated risk indicators have been major problems undermining formulation of relevant policy on air quality. This study used ... to environmental health. Key Words: Population at risk, PM2.5; Spatial modeling, GIS, Exposure index, environmental health ...

Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdulkareem, Shaheen A; Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Mustafa, Yaseen T; Filatova, Tatiana

2018-03-20

Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed. We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior). We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of

Potential ecological risk assessment and predicting zinc accumulation in soils

OpenAIRE

Baran, Agnieszka; Wieczorek, Jerzy; Mazurek, Ryszard; Urbański, Krzysztof; Klimkowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

2017-01-01

The aims of this study were to investigate zinc content in the studied soils; evaluate the efficiency of geostatistics in presenting spatial variability of zinc in the soils; assess bioavailable forms of zinc in the soils and to assess soil–zinc binding ability; and to estimate the potential ecological risk of zinc in soils. The study was conducted in southern Poland, in the Malopolska Province. This area is characterized by a great diversity of geological structures and types of land use and...

Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

2016-11-01

Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

Optimization of urban spatial development against flooding and other climate risks, and wider sustainability objectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caparros-Midwood Daniel

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A spatial optimization framework has been developed to help urban areas mitigate climate risks such as flooding and to curb resource use and greenhouse gas emissions. Measures required to address these issues often conflict with each other, for example more compact cities typically use less energy for transportation but increase runoff from high intensity rainfall events. Balancing potential trade-offs and maximizing synergies between these risks and vulnerabilities is therefore a multi-dimensional, spatial, challenge for urban planners. A spatial optimization framework is used to optimize the following objectives to minimize: (1 risk from heat waves; (2 risk from flooding; (3 the distance of new development to the current central business district; (4 urban sprawl to prevent increased travel costs; and (5 the development of green-space. The framework is applied to a real case study in the North East of England. From an initial configuration, alternative spatial configurations are tested against these objectives and the spatial pattern is evolved over successive generations to search for spatially optimum configurations. The resulting solutions provide planners with a range of robust spatial development patterns known to be best trade-offs which mitigate conflicts between risk and sustainability objectives.

Development of a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model to assess population exposure at a regional scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Caudeville, Julien; Bonnard, Roseline; Boudet, Céline; Denys, Sébastien; Govaert, Gérard; Cicolella, André

2012-08-15

Analyzing the relationship between the environment and health has become a major focus of public health efforts in France, as evidenced by the national action plans for health and the environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: - identify and manage geographic areas where hotspot exposures are a potential risk to human health; and - reduce exposure inequalities. The aim of this study is to develop a spatial stochastic multimedia exposure model for detecting vulnerable populations and analyzing exposure determinants at a fine resolution and regional scale. A multimedia exposure model was developed by INERIS to assess the transfer of substances from the environment to humans through inhalation and ingestion pathways. The RESPIR project adds a spatial dimension by linking GIS (Geographic Information System) to the model. Tools are developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interesting variables and indicators from different supports and resolutions on a 1-km(2) regular grid. We applied this model to the risk assessment of exposure to metals (cadmium, lead and nickel) using data from a region in France (Nord-Pas-de-Calais). The considered exposure pathways include the atmospheric contaminant inhalation and ingestion of soil, vegetation, meat, egg, milk, fish and drinking water. Exposure scenarios are defined for different reference groups (age, dietary properties, and the fraction of food produced locally). The two largest risks correspond to an ancient industrial site (Metaleurop) and the Lille agglomeration. In these areas, cadmium, vegetation ingestion and soil contamination are the principal determinants of the computed risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal extremes mortality risk assessment in urban areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Canário

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The impact of heat waves on mortality has been the subject of numerous studies and the focus of attention of various national and international governmental bodies. In the summer of 2003 alone, which was exceptionally hot, the number of deaths in 12 European countries increased by 70,000. The overall trend of warming will lead to an increase in frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves and to an increase in heat related mortality. The need to assess the risk of death due to extreme heat, at a detailed spatial scale, has determined the implementation of a research project based on a general model of risk for potentially destructive natural phenomena; the model uses the relationship between hazard and vulnerability and was designed primarily for urban areas. The major hazardous meteorological variables are those that determine the thermal complex (air temperature, radiative temperature, wind and humidity and the variables related to air quality (mainly ozone and Particulate matter. Vulnerability takes into account the population sensitivity (at various spatial scales and their exposure to thermal extremes.

Effects of spatial scale on the perception and assessment of risk of natural disturbance in forested ecosystems: examples from northeastern Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

R. James Barbour; Miles Hemstrom; Alan Ager; Jane L. Hayes

2005-01-01

The perception and measurement of the risk of natural disturbances often varies depending on the spatial and temporal scales over which information is collected or analyzed. This can lead to conflicting conclusions about severity of current or past disturbances or the risk of future ones. Failure to look across scales also complicates local implementation of policies...

Review of fall risk assessment in geriatric populations using inertial sensors

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological features were extracted; including, sensor placement, derived parameters used to assess fall risk, fall risk classification method, and fall risk classification model outcomes. Results Inertial sensors were placed only on the lower back in the majority of papers (65%). One hundred and thirty distinct variables were assessed, which were categorized as position and angle (7.7%), angular velocity (11.5%), linear acceleration (20%), spatial (3.8%), temporal (23.1%), energy (3.8%), frequency (15.4%), and other (14.6%). Fallers were classified using retrospective fall history (30%), prospective fall occurrence (15%), and clinical assessment (32.5%), with 22.5% using a combination of retrospective fall occurrence and clinical assessments. Half of the studies derived models for fall risk prediction, which reached high levels of accuracy (62-100%), specificity (35-100%), and sensitivity (55-99%). Conclusions Inertial sensors are promising sensors for fall risk assessment. Future studies should identify fallers using prospective techniques and focus on determining the most promising sensor sites, in conjunction with determination of optimally predictive variables. Further research should also attempt to link predictive variables to specific fall risk factors and investigate disease populations that are at high risk of falls. PMID:23927446

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

A multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing malaria risk in northern South America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Temitope O. Alimi

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria control in South America has vastly improved in the past decade, leading to a decrease in the malaria burden. Despite the progress, large parts of the continent continue to be at risk of malaria transmission, especially in northern South America. The objectives of this study were to assess the risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America using multi-criteria decision analysis. Methods The risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America was assessed using multi-criteria decision analysis, in which expert opinions were taken on the key environmental and population risk factors. Results Results from our risk maps indicated areas of moderate-to-high risk along rivers in the Amazon basin, along the coasts of the Guianas, the Pacific coast of Colombia and northern Colombia, in parts of Peru and Bolivia and within the Brazilian Amazon. When validated with occurrence records for malaria, An. darlingi, An. albimanus and An. nuneztovari s.l., t-test results indicated that risk scores at occurrence locations were significantly higher (p < 0.0001 than a control group of geographically random points. Conclusion In this study, we produced risk maps based on expert opinion on the spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure and malaria transmission. The findings provide information to the public health decision maker/policy makers to give additional attention to the spatial planning of effective vector control measures. Therefore, as the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, prioritizing areas for interventions by using spatially accurate, high-resolution (1 km or less risk maps may guide targeted control and help reduce the disease burden in the region.

Geo-Spatial Support for Assessment of Anthropic Impact on Biodiversity

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Marco Piragnolo

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses a methodology where geo-spatial analysis tools are used to quantify risk derived from anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed with a focus on simplification and the quality of standard procedures set on flora and fauna protected by the European Directives. In this study case, the DPSIR (Drivers, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses is applied using spatial procedures in a geographical information system (GIS framework. This approach can be inserted in a multidimensional space as the analysis is applied to each threat, pressure and activity and also to each habitat and species, at the spatial and temporal scale. Threats, pressures and activities, stress and indicators can be managed by means of a geo-database and analyzed using spatial analysis functions in a tested GIS workflow environment. The method applies a matrix with risk values, and the final product is a geo-spatial representation of impact indicators, which can be used as a support for decision-makers at various levels (regional, national and European.

Spatial variation in risk and consequence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans introduction in the USA

Science.gov (United States)

Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Adams, Michael J.; White, C. LeAnn; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

2016-01-01

A newly identified fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), is responsible for mass mortality events and severe population declines in European salamanders. The eastern USA has the highest diversity of salamanders in the world and the introduction of this pathogen is likely to be devastating. Although data are inevitably limited for new pathogens, disease-risk assessments use best available data to inform management decisions. Using characteristics of Bsal ecology, spatial data on imports and pet trade establishments, and salamander species diversity, we identify high-risk areas with both a high likelihood of introduction and severe consequences for local salamanders. We predict that the Pacific coast, southern Appalachian Mountains and mid-Atlantic regions will have the highest relative risk from Bsal. Management of invasive pathogens becomes difficult once they are established in wildlife populations; therefore, import restrictions to limit pathogen introduction and early detection through surveillance of high-risk areas are priorities for preventing the next crisis for North American salamanders.

Indicators for Environment Health Risk Assessment in the Jiangsu Province of China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shujie; Wei, Zhengzheng; Liu, Wenliang; Yao, Ling; Suo, Wenyu; Xing, Jingjing; Huang, Bingzhao; Jin, Di; Wang, Jiansheng

2015-09-07

According to the framework of "Pressure-State-Response", this study established an indicator system which can reflect comprehensive risk of environment and health for an area at large scale. This indicator system includes 17 specific indicators covering social and economic development, pollution emission intensity, air pollution exposure, population vulnerability, living standards, medical and public health, culture and education. A corresponding weight was given to each indicator through Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Comprehensive risk assessment of the environment and health of 58 counties was conducted in the Jiangsu province, China, and the assessment result was divided into four types according to risk level. Higher-risk counties are all located in the economically developed southern region of Jiangsu province and relatively high-risk counties are located along the Yangtze River and Xuzhou County and its surrounding areas. The spatial distribution of relatively low-risk counties is dispersive, and lower-risk counties mainly located in the middle region where the economy is somewhat weaker in the province. The assessment results provide reasonable and scientific basis for Jiangsu province Government in formulating environment and health policy. Moreover, it also provides a method reference for the comprehensive risk assessment of environment and health within a large area (provinces, regions and countries).

Assessing Risks to Wildlife Populations from Multiple Stressors: Overview of the Problem and Research Needs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wayne R. Munns, Jr.

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Wildlife populations are experiencing increasing pressure from human-induced changes in the landscape. Stressors including agricultural and urban land use, introduced invasive and exotic species, nutrient enrichment, direct human disturbance, and toxic chemicals directly or indirectly influence the quality and quantity of habitat used by terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. Governmental agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are required to assess risks to wildlife populations, in its broadest definition, that result from exposure to these stressors, yet considerable uncertainty exists with respect to how such assessments should be conducted. This uncertainty is compounded by questions concerning the interactive effects of co-occurring stressors, appropriate spatial scales of analysis, extrapolation of response data among species and from organisms to populations, and imperfect knowledge and use of limited data sets. Further, different risk problems require varying degrees of sophistication, methodological refinement, and data quality. These issues suggest a number of research needs to improve methods for wildlife risk assessments, including continued development of population dynamics models to evaluate the effects of multiple stressors at varying spatial scales, methods for extrapolating across endpoints and species with reasonable confidence, stressor-response relations and methods for combining them in predictive and diagnostic assessments, and accessible data sets describing the ecology of terrestrial and aquatic species. Case study application of models and methods for assessing wildlife risk will help to demonstrate their strengths and limitations for solving particular risk problems.

Spatial Analysis of Human Health Risk Due to Arsenic Exposure through Drinking Groundwater in Taiwan’s Pingtung Plain

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Ching-Ping; Chien, Yi-Chi; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Chen, Ching-Fang; Chen, Jui-Sheng

2017-01-01

Chronic arsenic (As) exposure continues to be a public health problem of major concern worldwide, affecting hundreds of millions of people. A long-term groundwater quality survey has revealed that 20% of the groundwater in southern Taiwan’s Pingtung Plain is clearly contaminated with a measured As concentration in excess of the maximum level of 10 µg/L recommended by the World Health Organization. The situation is further complicated by the fact that more than half of the inhabitants in this area continue to use groundwater for drinking. Efforts to assess the health risk associated with the ingestion of As from the contaminated drinking water are required in order to determine the priorities for health risk management. The conventional approach to conducting a human health risk assessment may be insufficient for this purpose, so this study adopts a geostatistical Kriging method to perform a spatial analysis of the health risk associated with ingesting As through drinking groundwater in the Pingtung Plain. The health risk is assessed based on the hazard quotient (HQ) and target cancer risk (TR) established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The results show that most areas where the HQ exceeds 1 are in the southwestern part of the study area. In addition, the high-population density townships of Daliao, Linyuan, Donggang, Linbian, Jiadong, and Fangliao presently have exceedingly high TR values that are two orders of magnitude higher than the acceptable standard. Thus, the use of groundwater for drinking in these townships should be strictly avoided. A map that delineates areas with high TR values and high population densities is provided. The findings broaden the scope of the spatial analysis of human health risk and provide a basis for improving the decision-making process. PMID:28098817

Spatial Analysis of Human Health Risk Due to Arsenic Exposure through Drinking Groundwater in Taiwan’s Pingtung Plain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Ping Liang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Chronic arsenic (As exposure continues to be a public health problem of major concern worldwide, affecting hundreds of millions of people. A long-term groundwater quality survey has revealed that 20% of the groundwater in southern Taiwan’s Pingtung Plain is clearly contaminated with a measured As concentration in excess of the maximum level of 10 µg/L recommended by the World Health Organization. The situation is further complicated by the fact that more than half of the inhabitants in this area continue to use groundwater for drinking. Efforts to assess the health risk associated with the ingestion of As from the contaminated drinking water are required in order to determine the priorities for health risk management. The conventional approach to conducting a human health risk assessment may be insufficient for this purpose, so this study adopts a geostatistical Kriging method to perform a spatial analysis of the health risk associated with ingesting As through drinking groundwater in the Pingtung Plain. The health risk is assessed based on the hazard quotient (HQ and target cancer risk (TR established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The results show that most areas where the HQ exceeds 1 are in the southwestern part of the study area. In addition, the high-population density townships of Daliao, Linyuan, Donggang, Linbian, Jiadong, and Fangliao presently have exceedingly high TR values that are two orders of magnitude higher than the acceptable standard. Thus, the use of groundwater for drinking in these townships should be strictly avoided. A map that delineates areas with high TR values and high population densities is provided. The findings broaden the scope of the spatial analysis of human health risk and provide a basis for improving the decision-making process.

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

Spatial distribution and risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments of Shuangtaizi estuary, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Chen; Song, Chengwen; Yin, Yanyan; Sun, Menghan; Tao, Ping; Shao, Mihua

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Five heavy metals are analyzed in the sediments from Shuangtaizi estuary. • Particle size of the sediment effects the concentration of heavy metals. • Pb, Cu, Zn and Hg pose low ecological risks in the Shuangtaizi estuary. • Heavy metal pollution in Shuangtaizi estuary is mainly dominated by Cd. - Abstract: In order to evaluate the spatial distribution and potential ecological risk of Pb, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Hg, the surface sediments were collected from 18 sites in the Shuangtaizi estuary. The concentrations of Pb, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Hg were analyzed by atomic absorption spectrophotometry and atomic fluorescence spectrometry after digestion. The particle sizes of the sediments were analyzed using a laser diffraction particle size analyzer. The results show that the heavy metal contents in the sediments are observed in the following order: Zn (18.25–126.75 mg/kg) > Pb (4.38–9.65 mg/kg) > Cu (1.80–17.68 mg/kg) > Cd (0.241–0.764 mg/kg) > Hg (0.007–0.021 mg/kg). In comparison with the concentrations of heavy metals in other regions, the concentrations of Pb, Cu, and Zn in the Shuangtaizi estuary are generally low, and the Cd concentrations are close to those reported in other regions. Both the potential ecological risk index and the geoaccumulation index reveal that the heavy metal pollution in Shuangtaizi estuary is mainly dominated by Cd

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature...... disaggregation model that considers the uncertainty in the disaggregation, taking basis in the scaled Dirichlet distribution. The proposed probabilistic disaggregation model is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings in the Canton Bern, Switzerland, subject to flood risk. Thereby, the model is verified...... are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is generally imperfect, uncertainty arises in disaggregation. This paper therefore proposes a probabilistic...

Habitat risk assessment for regional ocean planning in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Science.gov (United States)

Wyatt, Katherine H; Griffin, Robert; Guerry, Anne D; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Fogarty, Michael; Arkema, Katie K

2017-01-01

Coastal habitats provide important benefits to people, including habitat for species targeted by fisheries and opportunities for tourism and recreation. Yet, such human activities also can imperil these habitats and undermine the ecosystem services they provide to people. Cumulative risk assessment provides an analytical framework for synthesizing the influence of multiple stressors across habitats and decision-support for balancing human uses and ecosystem health. To explore cumulative risk to habitats in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Ocean Planning regions, we apply the open-source InVEST Habitat Risk Assessment model to 13 habitats and 31 stressors in an exposure-consequence framework. In doing so, we advance the science priorities of EBM and both regional planning bodies by synthesizing the wealth of available data to improve our understanding of human uses and how they affect marine resources. We find that risk to ecosystems is greatest first, along the coast, where a large number of stressors occur in close proximity and secondly, along the continental shelf, where fewer, higher consequence activities occur. Habitats at greatest risk include soft and hard-bottom nearshore areas, tidal flats, soft-bottom shelf habitat, and rocky intertidal zones-with the degree of risk varying spatially. Across all habitats, our results indicate that rising sea surface temperatures, commercial fishing, and shipping consistently and disproportionally contribute to risk. Further, our findings suggest that management in the nearshore will require simultaneously addressing the temporal and spatial overlap as well as intensity of multiple human activities and that management in the offshore requires more targeted efforts to reduce exposure from specific threats. We offer a transparent, generalizable approach to evaluating cumulative risk to multiple habitats and illustrate the spatially heterogeneous nature of impacts along the eastern Atlantic coast and the importance of

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Spatial distributions, fractionation characteristics, and ecological risk assessment of trace elements in sediments of Chaohu Lake, a large eutrophic freshwater lake in eastern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Lei; Liu, Guijian; Zhou, Chuncai; Liu, Rongqiong; Xi, Shanshan; Da, Chunnian; Liu, Fei

2018-01-01

The concentrations, spatial distribution, fractionation characteristics, and potential ecological risks of trace elements (Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, Ni, and Co) in the surface sediment samples collected from 32 sites in Chaohu Lake were investigated. The improved BCR sequential extraction procedure was applied to analyze the chemical forms of trace elements in sediments. The enrichment factor (EF), sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), potential ecological risk index (PERI), and risk assessment code (RAC) were employed to evaluate the pollution levels and the potential ecological risks. The results found that the concentrations of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, Ni, and Co in the surface sediments were 78.59, 36.91, 161.84, 98.87, 38.92, and 10.09 mg kg -1 , respectively. The lower concentrations of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, and Ni were almost found in the middle part of the lake, while Co increased from the western toward the eastern parts of the lake. Cr, Ni, Co, and Zn predominantly existed in the residual fractions, with the average values of 76.35, 59.22, 45.60, and 44.30%, respectively. Cu and Pb were mainly combined with Fe/Mn oxides in reducible fraction, with the average values of 66.4 and 69.1%, respectively. The pollution levels were different among the selected elements. Cu had the highest potential ecological risk, while Cr had the lowest potential ecological risk.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

Evaluation of potential human health effects associated with the agricultural uses of 1,3-D: Spatial and temporal stochastic risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Driver, Jeffrey H; Price, Paul S; Van Wesenbeeck, Ian; Ross, John H; Gehen, Sean; Holden, Larry R; Landenberger, Bryce; Hastings, Kerry; Yan, Zhongyu June; Rasoulpour, Reza

2016-11-15

Dow AgroSciences (DAS) markets and sells 1,3-Dichloropropene (1,3-D), the active ingredient in Telone®, which is used as a pre-plant soil fumigant nematicide in economically important crops in California. 1,3-D has been regulated as a "probable human carcinogen" and the California Department of Pesticide Regulation limits use of 1,3-D based on human health risk assessments for bystanders. This paper presents a risk characterization for bystanders based on advances in the assessment of both exposure and hazard. The revised bystander risk assessment incorporates significant advances: 1) new data on residency duration and mobility in communities where 1,3-D is in high demand; 2) new information on spatial and temporal concentrations of 1,3-D in air based on multi-year modeling using a validated model; and 3) a new stochastic spatial and temporal model of long-term exposures. Predicted distributions of long-term, chronic exposures indicate that current, and anticipated uses of 1,3-D would result in lifetime average daily doses lower than 0.002mg/kg/d, a dose associated with theoretical lifetime excess cancer risk of 95% of the local population based on a non-threshold risk assessment approach. Additionally, examination of 1,3-D toxicity studies including new chronic toxicity data and mechanism of action supports the use of a non-linear, threshold based risk assessment approach. The estimated maximum annual average daily dose of 1000-fold, a clear indication of acceptable risk for human health. In summary, the best available science supports 1,3-D's threshold nature of hazard and the revised exposure assessment supports that current agricultural uses of 1,3-D are associated with reasonable certainty of no harm, i.e., estimated long-term exposures pose insignificant health risks to bystanders even when the non-threshold approach is assumed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A ubiquitous method for street scale spatial data collection and analysis in challenging urban environments: mapping health risks using spatial video in Haiti.

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Curtis, Andrew; Blackburn, Jason K; Widmer, Jocelyn M; Morris, J Glenn

2013-04-15

Fine-scale and longitudinal geospatial analysis of health risks in challenging urban areas is often limited by the lack of other spatial layers even if case data are available. Underlying population counts, residential context, and associated causative factors such as standing water or trash locations are often missing unless collected through logistically difficult, and often expensive, surveys. The lack of spatial context also hinders the interpretation of results and designing intervention strategies structured around analytical insights. This paper offers a ubiquitous spatial data collection approach using a spatial video that can be used to improve analysis and involve participatory collaborations. A case study will be used to illustrate this approach with three health risks mapped at the street scale for a coastal community in Haiti. Spatial video was used to collect street and building scale information, including standing water, trash accumulation, presence of dogs, cohort specific population characteristics, and other cultural phenomena. These data were digitized into Google Earth and then coded and analyzed in a GIS using kernel density and spatial filtering approaches. The concentrations of these risks around area schools which are sometimes sources of diarrheal disease infection because of the high concentration of children and variable sanitary practices will show the utility of the method. In addition schools offer potential locations for cholera education interventions. Previously unavailable fine scale health risk data vary in concentration across the town, with some schools being proximate to greater concentrations of the mapped risks. The spatial video is also used to validate coded data and location specific risks within these "hotspots". Spatial video is a tool that can be used in any environment to improve local area health analysis and intervention. The process is rapid and can be repeated in study sites through time to track spatio

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

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EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Escherichia coli pollution in a Baltic Sea lagoon: a model-based source and spatial risk assessment.

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Schippmann, Bianca; Schernewski, Gerald; Gräwe, Ulf

2013-07-01

Tourism around the Oder (Szczecin) Lagoon, at the southern Baltic coast, has a long tradition, is an important source of income and shall be further developed. Insufficient bathing water quality and frequent beach closings, especially in the Oder river mouth, hamper tourism development. Monitoring data gives only an incomplete picture of Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria sources, spatial transport patterns, risks and does neither support an efficient bathing water quality management nor decision making. We apply a 3D ocean model and a Lagrangian particle tracking model to analyse pollution events and to obtain spatial E. coli pollution maps based on scenario simulations. Model results suggests that insufficient sewage treatment in the city of Szczecin is the major source of faecal pollution, even for beaches 20km downstream. E. coli mortality rate and emission intensity are key parameters for concentration levels downstream. Wind and river discharge play a modifying role. Prevailing southwestern wind conditions cause E. coli transport along the eastern coast and favour high concentration levels at the beaches. Our simulations indicate that beach closings in 2006 would not have been necessary according to the new EU-Bathing Water Quality Directive (2006/7/EC). The implementation of the new directive will, very likely, reduce the number of beach closings, but not the risk for summer tourists. Model results suggest, that a full sewage treatment in Szczecin would allow the establishment of new beaches closer to the city (north of Dabie lake). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Relative risk of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: a spatial analysis in urban area.

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Valdelaine Etelvina Miranda de Araújo

2013-11-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is a vector-borne disease whose factors involved in transmission are poorly understood, especially in more urban and densely populated counties. In Brazil, the VL urbanization is a challenge for the control program. The goals were to identify the greater risk areas for human VL and the risk factors involved in transmission. METHODOLOGY: This is an ecological study on the relative risk of human VL. Spatial units of analysis were the coverage areas of the Basic Health Units (146 small-areas of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Human VL cases, from 2007 to 2009 (n = 412, were obtained in the Brazilian Reportable Disease Information System. Bayesian approach was used to model the relative risk of VL including potential risk factors involved in transmission (canine infection, socioeconomic and environmental features and to identify the small-areas of greater risk to human VL. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The relative risk of VL was shown to be correlated with income, education, and the number of infected dogs per inhabitants. The estimates of relative risk of VL were higher than 1.0 in 54% of the areas (79/146. The spatial modeling highlighted 14 areas with the highest relative risk of VL and 12 of them are concentrated in the northern region of the city. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis used in this study is useful for the identification of small-areas according to risk of human VL and presents operational applicability in control and surveillance program in an urban environment with an unequal spatial distribution of the disease. Thus the frequent monitoring of relative risk of human VL in small-areas is important to direct and prioritize the actions of the control program in urban environment, especially in big cities.

Relating metal bioavailability to risk assessment for aquatic species: Daliao River watershed, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Shuping; Zhang, Ying; Masunaga, Shigeki; Zhou, Siyun; Naito, Wataru

2014-01-01

The spatial distribution of metal bioavailability (Ni, Cu, Zn, and Pb) was first evaluated within the waters of Daliao River watershed, using the diffusive gradient in thin films (DGT) and chemical equilibrium models. To assess potential risks associated with metal bioavailability, site-specific 95% protection levels (HC5), risk characterizations ratios (RCR) and ratios of DGT-labile/HC5 were derived, using species sensitivity distribution (SSD). The highest bioavailability values for metals were recorded in the main channel of the Daliao River, followed by the Taizi River. Dynamic concentrations predicted by WHAM 7.0 and NICA-Donnan for Cu and Zn agreed well with DGT results. The estuary of the Daliao River was found to have the highest risks related to Ni, Cu, and Zn. The number of sites at risk increased when considering the total toxicity of Ni, Cu, and Zn. - Highlights: • Spatial variation in metal bioavailability within Daliao River watershed was studied. • WHAM 7.0 and NICA-Donnan examined the differences in predicting metal speciation. • Bioavailability values of metals were highest in main channel of the Daliao River. • Site-specific 95% protection levels (HC5)/risk variations were assessed using SSD. • Maximum risks from Ni, Cu, and Zn occurred in the estuary of the Daliao River. - The highest bioavailability values and the highest risks of metals were found in the estuary of the Daliao River

Risk Assessment

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How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

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Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Analysis of spatial dynamic of epizootic process of bluetongue and its risk factors.

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Bouchemla, Fayssal; Popova, Olga Mikhailovna; Agoltsov, Valerey Alexandrovich

2017-10-01

The study was undertaken to find out the spatial dynamic occurrence and patterns of the global spread of bluetongue (BT) disease for the period from 1996 to 2016, as well as the assessment of the risk of occurrence and its spread in 2017-2018. Outbreaks (serum samples were collected from clinically healthy as well as suspected animals in infected points) were confirmed and reported officially by veterinary departments which represent different geographical regions in the world to World Organization for Animal Health. These reports explained that ELISA and polymerase chain reaction were used to identify the BT disease, taking in the account number of infected, dead animals, and focus of BT infection in all susceptible animals from 1996 to 2016. Once conventional statistical population was defined (an observational study), we had classified data as well as possible to answer to our aim, using descriptive statistics methods, including the test of the relationship between different epizootiological indicators. The spatial dynamic study of BT's occurrence and its spread in the world over the two past decades was presented by different epizootic indicators. The given analysis includes assessment and measurement of risk factors. It was built too, regression models, and allowed to put different forecasts on the different epizootic indicators in the years 2017-2018 by the extrapolation method. We had also determined that, in 2017, BT continues to spread with the total expectancy of 3.4 focus of infection (number of diseased animals in a single unfavorable point) and mortality of about 26 %; these rates tend to decrease in 2018. At abused points by BT, up to 78.4% of animals are mixed (more than one type) and in 21.6% - uniform. By this way, the relative risk of the incidence of appearance-abused points in mixed households has 3.64, which might be considered higher for the BT dissemination. Moreover, between the enzootic index and other epizootiological indicators had

Analysis of spatial dynamic of epizootic process of bluetongue and its risk factors

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Fayssal Bouchemla

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Aim: The study was undertaken to find out the spatial dynamic occurrence and patterns of the global spread of bluetongue (BT disease for the period from 1996 to 2016, as well as the assessment of the risk of occurrence and its spread in 2017-2018. Materials and Methods: Outbreaks (serum samples were collected from clinically healthy as well as suspected animals in infected points were confirmed and reported officially by veterinary departments which represent different geographical regions in the world to World Organization for Animal Health. These reports explained that ELISA and polymerase chain reaction were used to identify the BT disease, taking in the account number of infected, dead animals, and focus of BT infection in all susceptible animals from 1996 to 2016. Once conventional statistical population was defined (an observational study, we had classified data as well as possible to answer to our aim, using descriptive statistics methods, including the test of the relationship between different epizootiological indicators. Results: The spatial dynamic study of BT's occurrence and its spread in the world over the two past decades was presented by different epizootic indicators. The given analysis includes assessment and measurement of risk factors. It was built too, regression models, and allowed to put different forecasts on the different epizootic indicators in the years 2017-2018 by the extrapolation method. We had also determined that, in 2017, BT continues to spread with the total expectancy of 3.4 focus of infection (number of diseased animals in a single unfavorable point and mortality of about 26 %; these rates tend to decrease in 2018. At abused points by BT, up to 78.4% of animals are mixed (more than one type and in 21.6% - uniform. By this way, the relative risk of the incidence of appearance-abused points in mixed households has 3.64, which might be considered higher for the BT dissemination. Moreover, between the enzootic

Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, X; Wong, Y D; Li, M Z F; Chai, C

2018-08-01

Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potential accident, including at-risk vehicles, locations and time. Furthermore, straightforward thresholds are defined flexibly in KRIs, since the impact of different threshold values is found not to be very critical. For better validation, another independent real-world accident sample is examined, and the two results are in close agreement. Hierarchical indicators such as KRIs offer new insights about pre-accident risk exposures, which is helpful for accident assessment and prediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of metals in road-deposited sediment along an urban–rural gradient

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Hongtao; Li, Xuyong

2013-01-01

We applied the traditional risk assessment methods originally designed for soils and river sediments to evaluation of risk associated with metals in road-deposited sediment (RDS) along an urban–rural gradient that included central urban (UCA), urban village (UVA), central suburban county (CSA), rural town (RTA), and rural village (RVA) areas in the Beijing metropolitan region. A new indicator RI RDS was developed which integrated the RDS characteristics of mobility, grain size and amount with the potential ecological risk index. The risk associated with metals in RDS in urban areas was generally higher than that in rural areas based on the assessment using traditional methods, but the risk was higher in urban and rural village areas than the areas with higher administration units based on the indicator RI RDS . These findings implied that RDS characteristics variation with the urban–rural gradient must be considered in metal risk assessment and RDS washoff pollution control. Highlights: ► Spatial pattern of metal risk level associated with road-deposited sediment (RDS) along urban–rural gradients varied. ► Risk level of metals changed significantly when grain size was considered. ► A new index integrating RDS characteristics and potential ecological risk was developed. ► Results from the new index were improved relative to those of traditional assessment methods. -- A new index integrating road-deposited sediment characteristics and potential ecological risk was developed to assess metal risk along the urban–rural gradient

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATION IN SOLAR RADIATION AND PHOTO-ENHANCED TOXICITY RISKS OF SPILLED OIL IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, ALASKA

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Solar irradiance (W/m2) and downwelling diffuse attenuation coefficients (Kd; m-1) were determined in several locations in Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, between April 2003 and December 2005 to assess temporal and spatial variation in solar radiation and the risks of photoenh...

Dynamic Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Land Use in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Based on Landscape Patterns and Spatial Statistics

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Jiahui Fan

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Land use profoundly changes the terrestrial ecosystem and landscape patterns, and these changes reveal the extent and scope of the ecological influence of land use on the terrestrial ecosystem. The study area selected for this research was the middle reaches of the Heihe River. Based on land use data (1986, 2000, and 2014, we proposed an ecological risk index of land use by combining a landscape disturbance index with a landscape fragility index. An exponential model was selected to perform kriging interpolation, as well as spatial autocorrelations and semivariance analyses which could reveal the spatial aggregation patterns. The results indicated that the ecological risk of the middle reaches of the Heihe River was generally high, and higher in the northwest. The high values of the ecological risk index (ERI tended to decrease, and the low ERI values tended to increase. Positive spatial autocorrelations and a prominent scale-dependence were observed among the ERI values. The main hot areas with High-High local autocorrelations were located in the north, and the cold areas with low-low local autocorrelations were primarily located in the middle corridor plain and Qilian Mountains. From 1986 to 2014, low and relatively low ecological risk areas decreased while relatively high risk areas expanded. A middle level of ecological risk was observed in Ganzhou and Minle counties. Shandan County presented a serious polarization, with high ecological risk areas observed in the north and low ecological risk areas observed in the southern Shandan horse farm. In order to lower the eco-risk and achieve the sustainability of land use, these results suggest policies to strictly control the oasis expansion and the occupation of farmland for urbanization. Some inefficient farmland should transform into grassland in appropriate cases.

Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience

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Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab

2015-04-01

The increasing number of geological hazards in Malaysia has often resulted in casualties and extensive devastation with high mitigation cost. Given the destructive capacity and high frequency of disaster, Malaysia has taken a step forward to address the multi-scale landslide risk reduction emphasizing pre-disaster action rather than post-disaster reaction. Slope hazard and risk assessment in a quantitative manner at regional and national scales remains challenging in Malaysia. This paper presents the comprehensive methodology framework and operational needs driven by modern and advanced geospatial technology to address the aforementioned issues in the tropics. The Slope Hazard and Risk Mapping, the first national project in Malaysia utilizing the multi-sensor LIDAR has been critically implemented with the support of multi- and trans-disciplinary partners. The methodological model has been formulated and evaluated given the complexity of risk scenarios in this knowledge driven project. Instability slope problems in the urban, mountainous and tectonic landscape are amongst them, and their spatial information is of crucial for regional landslide assessment. We develop standard procedures with optimal parameterization for susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment in the selected regions. Remarkably, we are aiming at producing an utmost complete landslide inventory in both space and time. With the updated reliable terrain and landscape models, the landslide conditioning factor maps can be accurately derived depending on the landslide types and failure mechanisms which crucial for hazard and risk assessment. We also aim to improve the generation of elements at risk for landslide and promote integrated approaches for a better disaster risk analysis. As a result, a new tool, notably multi-sensor LIDAR technology is a very promising tool for an old geological problem and its derivative data for hazard and risk analysis is an effective preventive measure in Malaysia

Spatial Modeling of Risk in Natural Resource Management

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Peter Jones

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Making decisions in natural resource management involves an understanding of the risk and uncertainty of the outcomes, such as crop failure or cattle starvation, and of the normal spread of the expected production. Hedging against poor outcomes often means lack of investment and slow adoption of new methods. At the household level, production instability can have serious effects on income and food security. At the national level, it can have social and economic impacts that may affect all sectors of society. Crop models such as CERES-Maize are excellent tools for assessing weather-related production variability. WATBAL is a water balance model that can provide robust estimates of the potential growing days for a pasture. These models require large quantities of daily weather data that are rarely available. MarkSim is an application for generating synthetic daily weather files by estimating the third-order Markov model parameters from interpolated climate surfaces. The models can then be run for each distinct point on the map. This paper examines the growth of maize and pasture in dryland agriculture in southern Africa. Weather simulators produce independent estimates for each point on the map; however, we know that a spatial coherence of weather exists. We investigated a method of incorporating spatial coherence into MarkSim and show that it increases the variance of production. This means that all of the farmers in a coherent area share poor yields, with important consequences for food security, markets, transport, and shared grazing lands. The long-term aspects of risk are associated with global climate change. We used the results of a Global Circulation Model to extrapolate to the year 2055. We found that low maize yields would become more likely in the marginal areas, whereas they may actually increase in some areas. The same trend was found with pasture growth. We outline areas where further work is required before these tools and methods

A Risk-Based Ecohydrological Approach to Assessing Environmental Flow Regimes

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Mcgregor, Glenn B.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Lobegeiger, Jaye S.; Holloway, Dean; Menke, Norbert; Coysh, Julie

2018-03-01

For several decades there has been recognition that water resource development alters river flow regimes and impacts ecosystem values. Determining strategies to protect or restore flow regimes to achieve ecological outcomes is a focus of water policy and legislation in many parts of the world. However, consideration of existing environmental flow assessment approaches for application in Queensland identified deficiencies precluding their adoption. Firstly, in managing flows and using ecosystem condition as an indicator of effectiveness, many approaches ignore the fact that river ecosystems are subjected to threatening processes other than flow regime alteration. Secondly, many focus on providing flows for responses without considering how often they are necessary to sustain ecological values in the long-term. Finally, few consider requirements at spatial-scales relevant to the desired outcomes, with frequent focus on individual places rather than the regions supporting sustainability. Consequently, we developed a risk-based ecohydrological approach that identifies ecosystem values linked to desired ecological outcomes, is sensitive to flow alteration and uses indicators of broader ecosystem requirements. Monitoring and research is undertaken to quantify flow-dependencies and ecological modelling is used to quantify flow-related ecological responses over an historical flow period. The relative risk from different flow management scenarios can be evaluated at relevant spatial-scales. This overcomes the deficiencies identified above and provides a robust and useful foundation upon which to build the information needed to support water planning decisions. Application of the risk assessment approach is illustrated here by two case studies.

Geographic variations in cervical cancer risk in San Luis Potosí state, Mexico: A spatial statistical approach.

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Terán-Hernández, Mónica; Ramis-Prieto, Rebeca; Calderón-Hernández, Jaqueline; Garrocho-Rangel, Carlos Félix; Campos-Alanís, Juan; Ávalos-Lozano, José Antonio; Aguilar-Robledo, Miguel

2016-09-29

Worldwide, Cervical Cancer (CC) is the fourth most common type of cancer and cause of death in women. It is a significant public health problem, especially in low and middle-income/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) countries. In the past decade, several studies of CC have been published, that identify the main modifiable and non-modifiable CC risk factors for Mexican women. However, there are no studies that attempt to explain the residual spatial variation in CC incidence In Mexico, i.e. spatial variation that cannot be ascribed to known, spatially varying risk factors. This paper uses a spatial statistical methodology that takes into account spatial variation in socio-economic factors and accessibility to health services, whilst allowing for residual, unexplained spatial variation in risk. To describe residual spatial variations in CC risk, we used generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) with both spatially structured and unstructured random effects, using a Bayesian approach to inference. The highest risk is concentrated in the southeast, where the Matlapa and Aquismón municipalities register excessive risk, with posterior probabilities greater than 0.8. The lack of coverage of Cervical Cancer-Screening Programme (CCSP) (RR 1.17, 95 % CI 1.12-1.22), Marginalisation Index (RR 1.05, 95 % CI 1.03-1.08), and lack of accessibility to health services (RR 1.01, 95 % CI 1.00-1.03) were significant covariates. There are substantial differences between municipalities, with high-risk areas mainly in low-resource areas lacking accessibility to health services for CC. Our results clearly indicate the presence of spatial patterns, and the relevance of the spatial analysis for public health intervention. Ignoring the spatial variability means to continue a public policy that does not tackle deficiencies in its national CCSP and to keep disadvantaging and disempowering Mexican women in regard to their health care.

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

[Temporal and spatial characteristics of ecological risk in Shunyi, Beijing, China based on landscape structure.

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Qing, Feng Ting; Peng, Yu

2016-05-01

Based on the remote sensing data in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009 and 2013, this article classified the landscape types of Shunyi, and the ecological risk index was built based on landscape disturbance index and landscape fragility. The spatial auto-correlation and geostatistical analysis by GS + and ArcGIS was used to study temporal and spatial changes of ecological risk. The results showed that eco-risk degree in the study region had positive spatial correlation which decreased with the increasing grain size. Within a certain grain range (landscape, such as the banks of Chaobai River.

Chemical Risk Assessment

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This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

Assessment of landslide risk using gis and statistical methods in kysuce region

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Barančoková Mária

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The landslide susceptibility was assessed based on multivariation analysis. The input parameters were represented by lithology, land use, slope inclination and average annual precipitation. These parameters were evaluated as independent variables, and the existing landslides as dependent variables. The individual input parameters were reclassified and spatially adjusted. Spatial analysis resulted in 15 988 combinations of input parameters representing the homogeneous condition unit (HCU . Based on the landslide density within individual units, the HCU polygons have been classified according to landslide risk into stable, conditionally stable, conditionally stable and unstable (subdivided into low, medium and high landslide risk. A total of 2002 HCU s were affected by landslides, and the remaining 13 986 were not affected. The total HCU area affected by landslides is about 156.92 km2 (20.1%. Stable areas covered 623.01 km2 (79.8%, and conditionally stable areas covered 228.77 km2 (29.33% out of this area. Unstable areas were divided into three levels of landslide risk - low, medium and high risk. An area of 111.19 km2 (14.3% represents low landslide risk, medium risk 29.7 km2 (3.8% and 16.01 km2 (2% represents high risk. Since Zlín Formation lithological unit covers approximately one-third of the study area, it also influences the overall landslide risk assessment. This lithological formation covers the largest area within all landslide risk classes as well as in conditionally stable areas. The most frequent slope class was in the range of 14-19. The higher susceptibility of Zlín Formation to landslides is caused mainly by different geomorphological value of claystone and sandstone sequence. The higher share of claystone results in higher susceptibility of this formation to exogenous degradation processes.

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

Drought Risk Assessment based on Natural and Social Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jing; Wang, Huimin; Han, Dawei

2015-04-01

In many parts of the world, drought hazard is becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change and human activities. It is crucial to monitor and assess drought conditions, especially for decision making support in agriculture sector. The vegetation index (VI) decreases, and the land surface temperature (LST) increases when the vegetation is under drought stress. Therefore both of these remotely sensed indices are widely used in drought monitoring and assessment. Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) is obtained by establishing the feature space of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST, which reflects agriculture dry situation by inverting soil moisture. However, these indices only concern the natural hazard-causing factors. Our society is a complex large-scale system with various natural and social elements. The drought risk is the joint consequence of hazard-causing factors and hazard-affected bodies. For example, as the population increases, the exposure of the hazard-affected bodies also tends to increase. The high GDP enhances the response ability of government, and the irrigation and water conservancy reduces the vulnerability. Such characteristics of hazard-affected bodies should be coupled with natural factors. In this study, the 16-day moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI and LST data are combined to establish NDVI-Ts space according to different land use types in Yunnan Province, China. And then, TVDIs are calculated through dry and wet edges modeled as a linear fit to data for each land cover type. Next, the efforts are turned to establish an integrated drought assessment index of social factors and TVDI through ascertaining attribute weight based on rough sets theory. Thus, the new CDI (comprehensive drought index) recorded during spring of 2010 and the spatial variations in drought are analyzed and compared with TVDI dataset. Moreover, actual drought risk situation in the study area is given to

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

Spatial Interpolation of Daily Rainfall Data for Local Climate Impact Assessment over Greater Sydney Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xihua Yang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents spatial interpolation techniques to produce finer-scale daily rainfall data from regional climate modeling. Four common interpolation techniques (ANUDEM, Spline, IDW, and Kriging were compared and assessed against station rainfall data and modeled rainfall. The performance was assessed by the mean absolute error (MAE, mean relative error (MRE, root mean squared error (RMSE, and the spatial and temporal distributions. The results indicate that Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW method is slightly better than the other three methods and it is also easy to implement in a geographic information system (GIS. The IDW method was then used to produce forty-year (1990–2009 and 2040–2059 time series rainfall data at daily, monthly, and annual time scales at a ground resolution of 100 m for the Greater Sydney Region (GSR. The downscaled daily rainfall data have been further utilized to predict rainfall erosivity and soil erosion risk and their future changes in GSR to support assessments and planning of climate change impact and adaptation in local scale.

Spatial analysis and mapping of malaria risk in Malawi using point-referenced prevalence of infection data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kazembe Lawrence N

2006-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Current malaria control initiatives aim at reducing malaria burden by half by the year 2010. Effective control requires evidence-based utilisation of resources. Characterizing spatial patterns of risk, through maps, is an important tool to guide control programmes. To this end an analysis was carried out to predict and map malaria risk in Malawi using empirical data with the aim of identifying areas where greatest effort should be focussed. Methods Point-referenced prevalence of infection data for children aged 1–10 years were collected from published and grey literature and geo-referenced. The model-based geostatistical methods were applied to analyze and predict malaria risk in areas where data were not observed. Topographical and climatic covariates were added in the model for risk assessment and improved prediction. A Bayesian approach was used for model fitting and prediction. Results Bivariate models showed a significant association of malaria risk with elevation, annual maximum temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET. However in the prediction model, the spatial distribution of malaria risk was associated with elevation, and marginally with maximum temperature and PET. The resulting map broadly agreed with expert opinion about the variation of risk in the country, and further showed marked variation even at local level. High risk areas were in the low-lying lake shore regions, while low risk was along the highlands in the country. Conclusion The map provided an initial description of the geographic variation of malaria risk in Malawi, and might help in the choice and design of interventions, which is crucial for reducing the burden of malaria in Malawi.

MEETING IN CHICAGO: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Science.gov (United States)

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

MEETING IN CZECH REPUBLIC: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND RISK ASSESSMENT

Science.gov (United States)

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

Integrative Application of Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment to Environmental Impacts of Anthropogenic Pollutants at a Watershed Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Xiaodan; Yu, Shen; Ma, Hwongwen

2018-01-01

Intense human activities have led to increasing deterioration of the watershed environment via pollutant discharge, which threatens human health and ecosystem function. To meet a need of comprehensive environmental impact/risk assessment for sustainable watershed development, a biogeochemical process-based life cycle assessment and risk assessment (RA) integration for pollutants aided by geographic information system is proposed in this study. The integration is to frame a conceptual protocol of "watershed life cycle assessment (WLCA) for pollutants". The proposed WLCA protocol consists of (1) geographic and environmental characterization mapping; (2) life cycle inventory analysis; (3) integration of life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) with RA via characterization factor of pollutant of interest; and (4) result analysis and interpretation. The WLCA protocol can visualize results of LCIA and RA spatially for the pollutants of interest, which might be useful for decision or policy makers for mitigating impacts of watershed development.

A New Approach To Soil Sampling For Risk Assessment Of Nutrient Mobilisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jonczyk, J. C.; Owen, G. J.; Snell, M. A.; Barber, N.; Benskin, C.; Reaney, S. M.; Haygarth, P.; Quinn, P. F.; Barker, P. A.; Aftab, A.; Burke, S.; Cleasby, W.; Surridge, B.; Perks, M. T.

2016-12-01

Traditionally, risks of nutrient and sediment losses from soils are assessed through a combination of field soil nutrient values on soil samples taken over the whole field and the proximity of the field to water courses. The field average nutrient concentration of the soil is used by farmers to determine fertiliser needs. These data are often used by scientists to assess the risk of nutrient losses to water course, though are not really `fit' for this purpose. The Eden Demonstration Test Catchment (http://www.edendtc.org.uk/) is a research project based in the River Eden catchment, NW UK, with the aim of cost effectively mitigating diffuse pollution from agriculture whilst maintaining agricultural productivity. Three instrumented focus catchments have been monitored since 2011, providing high resolution in-stream chemistry and ecological data, alongside some spatial data on soils, land use and nutrient inputs. An approach to mitigation was demonstrated in a small sub-catchment, where surface runoff was identified as the key drivers of nutrient losses, using a suite of runoff attenuation features. Other issues identified were management of hard- standings and soil compaction. A new approach for evaluating nutrient losses from soils is assessed in the Eden DTC project. The Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling and Prediction (SCIMAP) model is a risk-mapping framework designed to identify where in the landscape diffuse pollution is most likely to be originating (http://www.scimap.org.uk) and was used to look at the spatial pattern of erosion potential. The aim of this work was to assess if erosion potential identified through the model could be used to inform a new soil sampling strategy, to better assess risk of erosion and risk of transport of sediment-bound phosphorus. Soil samples were taken from areas with different erosion potential. The chemical analysis of these targeted samples are compared to those obtained using more traditional sampling approaches

Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

Science.gov (United States)

González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.

2012-04-01

arrival time, maximum flooding level or "Run-up", hazard degree for people based on incipient velocity for people instability) along the coast of El Salvador and at some relevant locations (high resolution analysis). The VULNERABILITY assessment of the exposed elements (Phase II of the project) is based on an integrated approach which is essential given the complexity of coastal areas. A set of indices and indicators have been developed supported by a Geographic Information System that allows graphical representation of physical, environmental, social, economic and infrastructure characteristics of the coast. Different spatial and temporal scales have been also considered in this project to calculate the risk, since both factors would change the amount and type of exposed elements and their vulnerability. A final global RISK analysis (hazard, exposure and vulnerability analysis for each dimension -human, environmental, socioeconomic and infrastructure- and both temporal and spatial scales) allows identifying weaknesses, gaps and special needs to cope with a tsunami event and, therefore, will result in a set of risk reduction measures, including adaptation and mitigation measures.

Risk assessment of urban flood disaster in Jingdezhen City based on analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, D. C.; Huang, J.; Wang, H. M.; Wang, Z. Q.; Wang, W. Q.

2017-08-01

The research of urban flood risk assessment and management are of great academic and practical importance, which has become a widespread concern throughout the world. It’s significant to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk before making the risk response measures. In this study, the urban region of Jingdezhen City is selected as the study area. The assessment indicators are selected from four aspects: disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability, by consideration of the formation process of urban flood risk. And then, a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model is developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Geographic Information System(GIS), and the spatial-temporal distribution of flood risk in Jingdezhen City is analysed. The results show that the risk decreases gradually from the centre line of Changjiang River to the surrounding, and the areas of high flood disaster risk is decreasing from 2010 to 2013 while the risk areas are more concentred. The flood risk of the areas along the Changjiang River is the largest, followed by the low-lying areas in Changjiang District. And the risk is also large in Zhushan District where the population, the industries and commerce are concentrated. The flood risk in the western part of Changjiang District and the north-eastern part of the study area is relatively low. The results can provide scientific support for flood control construction and land development planning in Jingdezhen City.

A small-area study of environmental risk assessment of outdoor falls.

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Poh-Chin; Wong, Wing-Cheung; Low, Chien-Tat; Wong, Martin; Chan, Ming-Houng

2011-12-01

Falls in public places are an issue of great health concern especially for the elderly. Falls among the elderly is also a major health burden in many countries. This study describes a spatial approach to assess environmental causes of outdoor falls using a small urban community in Hong Kong as an example. The method involves collecting data on fall occurrences and mapping their geographic positions to examine circumstances and environmental evidence that contribute to falls. High risk locations or hot spots of falls are identified on the bases of spatial proximity and concentration of falls within a threshold distance by means of kernel smoothing and standard deviational ellipses. This method of geographic aggregation of individual fall incidents for a small-area study yields hot spots of manageable sizes. The spatial clustering approach is effective in two ways. Firstly, it allows visualisation and isolation of fall hot spots to draw focus. Secondly and especially under conditions of resource decline, policy makers are able to target specific locations to examine the underlying causal mechanisms and strategise effective response and preventive measures based on the types of environmental risk factors identified.

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Spatial analysis of under-5 mortality and potential risk factors in the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System, the Gambia.

Science.gov (United States)

Quattrochi, John; Jasseh, Momodou; Mackenzie, Grant; Castro, Marcia C

2015-07-01

To describe the spatial pattern in under-5 mortality rates in the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS) and to test for associations between under-5 deaths and biodemographic and socio-economic risk factors. Using data on child survival from 2007 to 2011 in the BHDSS, we mapped under-5 mortality by km(2) . We tested for spatial clustering of high or low death rates using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. Associations between child death and a variety of biodemographic and socio-economic factors were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models, and deviance residuals from the best-fitting model were tested for spatial clustering. The overall death rate among children under 5 was 0.0195 deaths per child-year. We found two spatial clusters of high death rates and one spatial cluster of low death rates; children in the two high clusters died at a rate of 0.0264 and 0.0292 deaths per child-year, while in the low cluster, the rate was 0.0144 deaths per child-year. We also found that children born to Fula mothers experienced, on average, a higher hazard of death, whereas children born in the households in the upper two quintiles of asset ownership experienced, on average, a lower hazard of death. After accounting for the spatial distribution of biodemographic and socio-economic characteristics, we found no residual spatial pattern in child mortality risk. This study demonstrates that significant inequality in under-5 death rates can occur within a relatively small area (1100 km(2) ). Risks of under-5 mortality were associated with mother's ethnicity and household wealth. If high mortality clusters persist, then equity concerns may require additional public health efforts in those areas. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial variation of pneumonia hospitalization risk in Twin Cities metro area, Minnesota.

Science.gov (United States)

Iroh Tam, P Y; Krzyzanowski, B; Oakes, J M; Kne, L; Manson, S

2017-11-01

Fine resolution spatial variability in pneumonia hospitalization may identify correlates with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors. We performed a retrospective study within the Fairview Health System network of Minnesota. Patients 2 months of age and older hospitalized with pneumonia between 2011 and 2015 were geocoded to their census block group, and pneumonia hospitalization risk was analyzed in relation to socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors. Spatial analyses were performed using Esri's ArcGIS software, and multivariate Poisson regression was used. Hospital encounters of 17 840 patients were included in the analysis. Multivariate Poisson regression identified several significant associations, including a 40% increased risk of pneumonia hospitalization among census block groups with large, compared with small, populations of ⩾65 years, a 56% increased risk among census block groups in the bottom (first) quartile of median household income compared to the top (fourth) quartile, a 44% higher risk in the fourth quartile of average nitrogen dioxide emissions compared with the first quartile, and a 47% higher risk in the fourth quartile of average annual solar insolation compared to the first quartile. After adjusting for income, moving from the first to the second quartile of the race/ethnic diversity index resulted in a 21% significantly increased risk of pneumonia hospitalization. In conclusion, the risk of pneumonia hospitalization at the census-block level is associated with age, income, race/ethnic diversity index, air quality, and solar insolation, and varies by region-specific factors. Identifying correlates using fine spatial analysis provides opportunities for targeted prevention and control.

A long-term, continuous simulation approach for large-scale flood risk assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Falter, Daniela; Schröter, Kai; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Kreibich, Heidi; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

The Regional Flood Model (RFM) is a process based model cascade developed for flood risk assessments of large-scale basins. RFM consists of four model parts: the rainfall-runoff model SWIM, a 1D channel routing model, a 2D hinterland inundation model and the flood loss estimation model for residential buildings FLEMOps+r. The model cascade was recently undertaken a proof-of-concept study at the Elbe catchment (Germany) to demonstrate that flood risk assessments, based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, hydrodynamic and damage estimation models, are feasible for large catchments. The results of this study indicated that uncertainties are significant, especially for hydrodynamic simulations. This was basically a consequence of low data quality and disregarding dike breaches. Therefore, RFM was applied with a refined hydraulic model setup for the Elbe tributary Mulde. The study area Mulde catchment comprises about 6,000 km2 and 380 river-km. The inclusion of more reliable information on overbank cross-sections and dikes considerably improved the results. For the application of RFM for flood risk assessments, long-term climate input data is needed to drive the model chain. This model input was provided by a multi-site, multi-variate weather generator that produces sets of synthetic meteorological data reproducing the current climate statistics. The data set comprises 100 realizations of 100 years of meteorological data. With the proposed continuous simulation approach of RFM, we simulated a virtual period of 10,000 years covering the entire flood risk chain including hydrological, 1D/2D hydrodynamic and flood damage estimation models. This provided a record of around 2.000 inundation events affecting the study area with spatially detailed information on inundation depths and damage to residential buildings on a resolution of 100 m. This serves as basis for a spatially consistent, flood risk assessment for the Mulde catchment presented in

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

Risk assessments of regional climate change over Europe: generation of probabilistic ensemble and uncertainty assessment for EURO-CODEX

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, J.; Kopp, R. E.

2017-12-01

Quantitative risk analysis of regional climate change is crucial for risk management and impact assessment of climate change. Two major challenges to assessing the risks of climate change are: CMIP5 model runs, which drive EURO-CODEX downscaling runs, do not cover the full range of uncertainty of future projections; Climate models may underestimate the probability of tail risks (i.e. extreme events). To overcome the difficulties, this study offers a viable avenue, where a set of probabilistic climate ensemble is generated using the Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) method. The probabilistic ensembles for temperature and precipitation are used to assess the range of uncertainty covered by five bias-corrected simulations from the high-resolution (0.11º) EURO-CODEX database, which are selected by the PESETA (The Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) III project. Results show that the distribution of SMME ensemble is notably wider than both distribution of raw ensemble of GCMs and the spread of the five EURO-CORDEX in RCP8.5. Tail risks are well presented by the SMME ensemble. Both SMME ensemble and EURO-CORDEX projections are aggregated to administrative level, and are integrated into impact functions of PESETA III to assess climate risks in Europe. To further evaluate the uncertainties introduced by the downscaling process, we compare the 5 runs from EURO-CORDEX with runs from the corresponding GCMs. Time series of regional mean, spatial patterns, and climate indices are examined for the future climate (2080-2099) deviating from the present climate (1981-2010). The downscaling processes do not appear to be trend-preserving, e.g. the increase in regional mean temperature from EURO-CORDEX is slower than that from the corresponding GCM. The spatial pattern comparison reveals that the differences between each pair of GCM and EURO-CORDEX are small in winter. In summer, the temperatures of EURO

Spatially explicit exposure assessment for small streams in catchments of the orchard growing region `Lake Constance

Science.gov (United States)

Golla, B.; Bach, M.; Krumpe, J.

2009-04-01

1. Introduction Small streams differ greatly from the standardised water body used in the context of aquatic risk assessment for the regulation of plant protection products in Germany. The standard water body is static, with a depth of 0.3 m and a width of 1.0 m. No dilution or water replacement takes place. Spray drift happens always in direction to the water body. There is no variability in drift deposition rate (90th percentile spray drift deposition values [2]). There is no spray drift filtering by vegetation. The application takes place directly adjacent to the water body. In order to establish a more realistic risk assessment procedure the Federal Office for Consumer Protection and Food Safety (BVL) and the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) aggreed to replace deterministic assumptions with data distributions and spatially explicit data and introduce probabilistic methods [3, 4, 5]. To consider the spatial and temporal variability in the exposure situations of small streams the hydraulic and morphological characteristics of catchments need to be described as well as the spatial distribution of fields treated with pesticides. As small streams are the dominant type of water body in most German orchard regions, we use the growing region Lake Constance as pilot region. 2. Materials and methods During field surveys we derive basic morphological parameters for small streams in the Lake Constance region. The mean water width/depth ratio is 13 with a mean depth of 0.12 m. The average residence time is 5.6 s/m (n=87) [1]. Orchards are mostly located in the upper parts of the catchments. Based on an authoritative dataset on rivers and streams of Germany (ATKIS DLM25) we constructed a directed network topology for the Lake Constance region. The gradient of the riverbed is calculated for river stretches of > 500 m length. The network for the pilot region consists of 2000 km rivers and streams. 500 km stream length are located within a distance of 150 m to orchards. Within

Simultaneous Assessment of Speech Identification and Spatial Discrimination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer K. Bizley

2015-12-01

Full Text Available With increasing numbers of children and adults receiving bilateral cochlear implants, there is an urgent need for assessment tools that enable testing of binaural hearing abilities. Current test batteries are either limited in scope or are of an impractical duration for routine testing. Here, we report a behavioral test that enables combined testing of speech identification and spatial discrimination in noise. In this task, multitalker babble was presented from all speakers, and pairs of speech tokens were sequentially presented from two adjacent speakers. Listeners were required to identify both words from a closed set of four possibilities and to determine whether the second token was presented to the left or right of the first. In Experiment 1, normal-hearing adult listeners were tested at 15° intervals throughout the frontal hemifield. Listeners showed highest spatial discrimination performance in and around the frontal midline, with a decline at more eccentric locations. In contrast, speech identification abilities were least accurate near the midline and showed an improvement in performance at more lateral locations. In Experiment 2, normal-hearing listeners were assessed using a restricted range of speaker locations designed to match those found in clinical testing environments. Here, speakers were separated by 15° around the midline and 30° at more lateral locations. This resulted in a similar pattern of behavioral results as in Experiment 1. We conclude, this test offers the potential to assess both spatial discrimination and the ability to use spatial information for unmasking in clinical populations.

Large-scale model-based assessment of deer-vehicle collision risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Torsten Hothorn

Full Text Available Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer-vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on >74,000 deer-vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer-vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer-vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment-deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new "deer-vehicle collision index" for deer management. We show that the risk of deer-vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer-vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer-vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and defining

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

Environmental risk assessment of phosphonates, used in domestic laundry and cleaning agents in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jaworska, J.; Genderen-Takken, H. van; Hanstveit, A.; Plassche, E. van de; Feijtel, T.

2002-01-01

In the long-term cooperative project Voluntary Plan of Action (1990) between the Dutch Soap and Detergent Association (NVZ) and the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM) environmental risk assessments of several main components of laundry cleaning formulations were

Landslide risk assessment of a slope in Tijuana city, Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aldo Onel Oliva González

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Context: Risk reduction and prevention of disasters events produced by landslides on urban slopes, requires an integral assessment considering conditioning and triggering natural and human factors. Such an assessment is a valuable prevention and mitigation tool for communities under risk and also for authorities involved in the process. Method: In this research, a general methodology for the assessment of landslides on an urban slope was studied and applied, considering the relationship between hazard and physical vulnerability in the zone of study. Hazard was determined by probabilistic methods, whereas vulnerability of the exposed elements was obtained taking into account two kinds of buildings and their spatial distribution, their structural integrity state, their foundation depth and the unstable terrain probable mass volume. Results: Safety factors were obtained under allowable levels to warrant stability of the slope under study, and valuation factors of the qualitative analysis indicate that the slope is unstable and that requires urgent maintenance. This confirms and validates the high probability of occurrence in the zone, obtained from historic records. Conclusions: It was found that landslide risk in the slope is high due to the high probability of its occurrence, with three possible movement directions that may impact on several buildings located in the zone. Assessment constitutes a work tool for institutions and authorities related with risk reduction due to landslides, as a way of prevent and mitigate disaster prone events.

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

The third spatial dimension risk approach for individual risk and group risk in multiple use of space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suddle, Shahid; Ale, Ben

2005-01-01

Buildings above roads and railways are examples of multiple use of space. Safety is one of the critical issues for such projects. Risk analyses can be undertaken to investigate what safety measures that are required to realise these projects. The results of these analyses can also be compared to risk acceptance criteria, if they are applicable. In The Netherlands, there are explicit criteria for acceptability of individual risk and societal risk. Traditionally calculations of individual risk result in contours of equal risk on a map and thus are considered in two-dimensional space only. However, when different functions are layered the third spatial dimension, height, becomes an important parameter. The various activities and structures above and below each other impose mutual risks. There are no explicit norms or policies about how to deal with the individual or group risk approach in the third dimension. This paper proposes an approach for these problems and gives some examples. Finally, the third dimension risk approach is applied in a case study of Bos en Lommer, Amsterdam

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

Science.gov (United States)

Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

2017-04-01

The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

Site-specific probabilistic ecological risk assessment of a volatile chlorinated hydrocarbon-contaminated tidal estuary.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, James; Birch, Gavin; Warne, Michael St J

2010-05-01

Groundwater contaminated with volatile chlorinated hydrocarbons (VCHs) was identified as discharging to Penrhyn Estuary, an intertidal embayment of Botany Bay, New South Wales, Australia. A screening-level hazard assessment of surface water in Penrhyn Estuary identified an unacceptable hazard to marine organisms posed by VCHs. Given the limitations of hazard assessments, the present study conducted a higher-tier, quantitative probabilistic risk assessment using the joint probability curve (JPC) method that accounted for variability in exposure and toxicity profiles to quantify risk (delta). Risk was assessed for 24 scenarios, including four areas of the estuary based on three exposure scenarios (low tide, high tide, and both low and high tides) and two toxicity scenarios (chronic no-observed-effect concentrations [NOEC] and 50% effect concentrations [EC50]). Risk (delta) was greater at low tide than at high tide and varied throughout the tidal cycle. Spatial distributions of risk in the estuary were similar using both NOEC and EC50 data. The exposure scenario including data combined from both tides was considered the most accurate representation of the ecological risk in the estuary. When assessing risk using data across both tides, the greatest risk was identified in the Springvale tributary (delta=25%)-closest to the source area-followed by the inner estuary (delta=4%) and the Floodvale tributary (delta=2%), with the lowest risk in the outer estuary (delta=0.1%), farthest from the source area. Going from the screening level ecological risk assessment (ERA) to the probabilistic ERA changed the risk from unacceptable to acceptable in 50% of exposure scenarios in two of the four areas within the estuary. The probabilistic ERA provided a more realistic assessment of risk than the screening-level hazard assessment. Copyright (c) 2010 SETAC.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Spatial and temporal variation in evacuee risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process.

Science.gov (United States)

Siebeneck, Laura K; Cova, Thomas J

2012-09-01

Developing effective evacuation and return-entry plans requires understanding the spatial and temporal dimensions of risk perception experienced by evacuees throughout a disaster event. Using data gathered from the 2008 Cedar Rapids, Iowa Flood, this article explores how risk perception and location influence evacuee behavior during the evacuation and return-entry process. Three themes are discussed: (1) the spatial and temporal characteristics of risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process, (2) the relationship between risk perception and household compliance with return-entry orders, and (3) the role social influences have on the timing of the return by households. The results indicate that geographic location and spatial variation of risk influenced household risk perception and compliance with return-entry plans. In addition, sociodemographic characteristics influenced the timing and characteristics of the return groups. The findings of this study advance knowledge of evacuee behavior throughout a disaster and can inform strategies used by emergency managers throughout the evacuation and return-entry process. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Probabilistic risk assessment for the Sandia National Laboratories Technical Area V Liquid Waste Disposal System surface impoundments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dawson, L.A.; Eidson, A.F.

1996-01-01

A probabilistic risk assessment was completed for a former radioactive waste disposal site. The site, two unlined surface impoundment, was designed as part of the Liquid Waste Disposal System (LWDS) to receive radioactive effluent from nuclear reactors in Technical Area-V (TA-V) at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM). First, a statistical comparison of site sampling results to natural background, using EPA methods, and a spatial distribution analysis were performed. Risk assessment was conducted with SNL/NM's Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System model. The risk assessment indicated that contamination from several constituents might have been high enough to require remediation. However, further analysis based on expected site closure activities and recent EPA guidance indicated that No Further Action was acceptable

Health assessment and risk mitigation of railroad networks exposed to natural hazards using commercial remote sensing and spatial information technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

2017-05-31

The overarching goal of this project was to integrate data from commercial remote sensing and spatial information (CRS&SI) technologies to create a novel data-driven decision making framework that empowers the railroad industry to monitor, assess, an...

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Malaria prevalence, risk factors and spatial distribution in a hilly forest area of Bangladesh.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ubydul Haque

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria is a major public health concern in Bangladesh and it is highly endemic in the Chittagong Hill Tracts where prevalence was 11.7% in 2007. One sub-district, Rajasthali, had a prevalence of 36%. Several interventions were introduced in early 2007 to control malaria. This study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of these intensive early stage interventions on malaria in Bangladesh. This prevalence study assesses whether or not high malaria prevalence remains, and if so, which areas and individuals remain at high risk of infection. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A 2-stage cluster sampling technique was used to sample 1,400 of 5,322 (26.3% households in Rajasthali, and screened using a rapid diagnostic test (Falci-vax. Overall malaria prevalence was 11.5%. The proportions of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and infection with both species were 93.2%, 1.9% and 5.0%, respectively. Univariate, multivariate logistic regression, and spatial cluster analyses were performed separately. Sex, age, number of bed nets, forest cover, altitude and household density were potential risk factors. A statistically significant malaria cluster was identified. Significant differences among risk factors were observed between cluster and non-cluster areas. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE: Malaria has significantly decreased within 2 years after onset of intervention program. Both aspects of the physical and social environment, as well as demographic characteristics are associated with spatial heterogeneity of risk. The ability to identify and locate these areas provides a strategy for targeting interventions during initial stages of intervention programs. However, in high risk clusters of transmission, even extensive coverage by current programs leaves transmission ongoing at reduced levels. This indicates the need for continued development of new strategies for identification and treatment as well as improved understanding of the patterns and

Assessment of Uncertainty-Based Screening Volumes for NASA Robotic LEO and GEO Conjunction Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Narvet, Steven W.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

2011-01-01

Conjunction Assessment operations require screening assets against the space object catalog by placing a pre-determined spatial volume around each asset and predicting when another object will violate that volume. The selection of the screening volume used for each spacecraft is a trade-off between observing all conjunction events that may pose a potential risk to the primary spacecraft and the ability to analyze those predicted events. If the screening volumes are larger, then more conjunctions can be observed and therefore the probability of a missed detection of a high risk conjunction event is small; however, the amount of data which needs to be analyzed increases. This paper characterizes the sensitivity of screening volume size to capturing typical orbit uncertainties and the expected number of conjunction events observed. These sensitivities are quantified in the form of a trade space that allows for selection of appropriate screen-ing volumes to fit the desired concept of operations, system limitations, and tolerable analyst workloads. This analysis will specifically highlight the screening volume determination and selection process for use in the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis process but will also provide a general framework for other Owner / Operators faced with similar decisions.

Spatial information in public consultation within environmental impact assessments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mwenda, A.N.

2015-01-01

Thesis Summary

Spatial information in public consultation within Environmental Impact Assessments

Angela N. Mwenda

Established in the United States of America in 1970, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is an interdisciplinary approach that

Improving the allocation of flood-risk interventions from a spatial quality perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nillesen, A.L.

2014-01-01

This paper describes an integral approach to flood-risk protection and spatial design that allows for an active involvement of landscape architects and urban designers in the allocation of flood-risk interventions within the Dutch Delta. The Dutch Rijnmond–Drechtsteden area is used as a case study

Identifying areas at risk of low birth weight using spatial epidemiology: A small area surveillance study.

Science.gov (United States)

Insaf, Tabassum Z; Talbot, Thomas

2016-07-01

To assess the geographic distribution of Low Birth Weight (LBW) in New York State among singleton births using a spatial regression approach in order to identify priority areas for public health actions. LBW was defined as birth weight less than 2500g. Geocoded data from 562,586 birth certificates in New York State (years 2008-2012) were merged with 2010 census data at the tract level. To provide stable estimates and maintain confidentiality, data were aggregated to yield 1268 areas of analysis. LBW prevalence among singleton births was related with area-level behavioral, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics using a Poisson mixed effects spatial error regression model. Observed low birth weight showed statistically significant auto-correlation in our study area (Moran's I 0.16 p value 0.0005). After over-dispersion correction and accounting for fixed effects for selected social determinants, spatial autocorrelation was fully accounted for (Moran's I-0.007 p value 0.241). The proportion of LBW was higher in areas with larger Hispanic or Black populations and high smoking prevalence. Smoothed maps with predicted prevalence were developed to identify areas at high risk of LBW. Spatial patterns of residual variation were analyzed to identify unique risk factors. Neighborhood racial composition contributes to disparities in LBW prevalence beyond differences in behavioral and socioeconomic factors. Small-area analyses of LBW can identify areas for targeted interventions and display unique local patterns that should be accounted for in prevention strategies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applying spatial clustering analysis to a township-level social vulnerability assessment in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Yen Lin

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The degree of social vulnerability may vary according to the conditions and backgrounds of different locations, yet spatial clustering phenomena may exist when nearby spatial units exhibit similar characteristics. This study applied spatial autocorrelation statistics to analyze the spatial association of vulnerability among townships in Taiwan. The vulnerability was first assessed on the basis of a social vulnerability index that was constructed using Fuzzy Delphi and analytic hierarchy process methods. Subsequently, the corresponding indicator variables were applied to calculate standardized vulnerability assessment scores by using government data. According to the results of the vulnerability assessment in which T scores were normalized, the distribution of social vulnerabilities varied among the townships. The scores were further analyzed using spatial autocorrelation statistics for spatial clustering of vulnerability distribution. The Local G statistic identified 42 significant spatial association pockets, whereas the Global G statistic indicated no spatial phenomenon of clustering. This phenomenon was verified and explained by applying Moran's I statistics to examine the homogeneity and heterogeneity of spatial associations. Although both statistics were originally designed to identify the existence of spatial clustering, they serve diverse purposes, and the results can be compared to obtain additional insights into the distribution patterns of social vulnerability.

Prevalence, risk factors and spatial analysis of liver fluke infections in Danish cattle herds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Abbey; Frankena, Klaas; Bødker, Rene

2015-01-01

fitted the observed spatial pattern. Results: During the investigated period (2011-2013), an increase in annual herd prevalence was noted (2011-25.6%; 2012-28.4%; 2013-29.3%). The spatial analysis suggested significant clustering of positive and negative herds. Presence of streams, wetlands and pastures...... on farms showed a significant association with the presence of infection in cattle herds. Buying animals from positive herds was a risk factor on conventional farms. Additionally, risk of being infected with Fasciola hepatica was higher in non-dairy herds of medium size (>= 30 and ... to dairy and large (>= 100) cattle herds. The observed spatial pattern could be reproduced by predictions of the risk factor model. Conclusions: This study showed an increase in annual herd level prevalence (2011 to 2013) indicating that an increasing proportion of herds are infected with Fasciola hepatica...

Assessing spatial distribution, sources, and potential ecological risk of heavy metals in surface sediments of the Nansi Lake, Eastern China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jianshu Lv; Bin Dai; Zulu Zhang; Yuanyuan Sun; Shuang Li; Yang Liu

2014-01-01

The study is conducted to investigate the spatial distribution, sources and ecological risk of seven heavy metals in surface sediments of Nansi Lake, Eastern China. A total of 29 samples were collected in surface sediments of Nansi Lake, and were analyzed for three nutrients (TN, TOC and TP), two major metals (Al and Fe), as well as seven trace metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn). The mean concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, Zn, Fe and Al were 14.41, 0.22, 71.10, 30.1, 0.048, 29.14, 90.2, 30,816 and 70,653 mg kg -1 , respectively, and the mean contents of these metals were higher than the background values with the exception of Cu and Fe. The spatial distribution indicated that the contents of all seven heavy metals were characterized by relatively higher contents in the upper lake than the lower lake. The hotspots with high values of As, Cd and Hg were associated with the river mouths, and the hotspots of Pb were mainly located around the dam in the central part, while no significant associations were displayed between spatial distribution of Cr, Cu, Zn and the river mouths. The mean enrichment factor (EF) values of As, Cd, Hg and Pb were 2.03, 2.93, 3.21 and 2.18, respectively, showing their moderate enrichment, while Cr, Cu and Zn with mean EF values of 1.19, 0.89 and 1.01 were deficiency to minimal enrichment. Multivariate and geostatistical analyses suggested that PC1 controlled by Cr, Cu and Zn was a lithogenic component, and come from parent rocks leaching. PC2 including Cd and partially Hg represented the factor from industrial wastewater discharge. PC3 showed elevated loadings of As and partially Cd, and could be attributed to the agricultural practices. While PC4 including Pb and partially Hg, was dominated by coal combustion. The results of potential ecological risk suggested that sediment environment of Nansi Lake suffered from high ecological risk. (author)

Performance Objective for Tank Farm Closure Risk Assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MANN, F.M.; KNEPP, A.J.; BADDEN, J.

2003-01-01

To be meaningful, results from a numeric risk assessment of the consequences of an action must be compared against the standards for such an action. That is, before one disposes of waste or closes a facility with waste, one must show that the disposal or closure action protects the public health and safety and the environment. These standards are called performance objectives. Regulations requiring performing performance assessments, (whether federal ones like the Department of Energy [DOE] Order 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management and its implementing guides or Washington State ones like the regulations implementing the Washington Administrative Code [WAC] 173-340 ''Model Toxics Control Act - Cleanup''), usually require that the determination of performance objectives be one of the first steps performed. These performance objectives not only set comparison level for the numeric results, but also define the media, pathways, exposure scenarios (receptors), spatial locations, and times that the performance assessment must consider. Thus, a performance objective consists of a compliance level, place(s) of compliance, and time(s) of compliance. Performance objectives are not the levels that a regulatory agency will enforce in a permit or authorization. Those levels, often called enforcement levels, will be set in the permit or authorization. Rather, performance objectives are those levels against which the results of the numeric simulation will be compared to judge the success of the proposed cleanup or disposal actions. Additional comparison levels may be requested for information purposes, but are not officially part of the decision on the adequacy of the proposed action. To emphasize that the performance objectives discussed in this document are not regulatory performance objectives, the three components of the performance objective will be renamed in this document as assessment standard, point(s) of assessment, and time(s) of assessment. However, whenever

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Borst

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM – Risk Map Germany – Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Borst, D.; Jung, D.; Murshed, S. M.; Werner, U.

2006-09-01

Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM - Risk Map Germany - Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP) or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats) display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

Spatial epidemiology of cancer: a review of data sources, methods and risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rita Roquette

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Cancer is a major concern among chronic diseases today. Spatial epidemiology plays a relevant role in this matter and we present here a review of this subject, including a discussion of the literature in terms of the level of geographic data aggregation, risk factors and methods used to analyse the spatial distribution of patterns and spatial clusters. For this purpose, we performed a websearch in the Pubmed and Web of Science databases including studies published between 1979 and 2015. We found 180 papers from 63 journals and noted that spatial epidemiology of cancer has been addressed with more emphasis during the last decade with research based on data mostly extracted from cancer registries and official mortality statistics. In general, the research questions present in the reviewed papers can be classified into three different sets: i analysis of spatial distribution of cancer and/or its temporal evolution; ii risk factors; iii development of data analysis methods and/or evaluation of results obtained from application of existing methods. This review is expected to help promote research in this area through the identification of relevant knowledge gaps. Cancer’s spatial epidemiology represents an important concern, mainly for public health policies design aimed to minimise the impact of chronic disease in specific populations.

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterhouse, Rachel

1992-01-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

A hydrochemical modelling framework for combined assessment of spatial and temporal variability in stream chemistry: application to Plynlimon, Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H.J. Foster

2001-01-01

Full Text Available Recent concern about the risk to biota from acidification in upland areas, due to air pollution and land-use change (such as the planting of coniferous forests, has generated a need to model catchment hydro-chemistry to assess environmental risk and define protection strategies. Previous approaches have tended to concentrate on quantifying either spatial variability at a regional scale or temporal variability at a given location. However, to protect biota from ‘acid episodes’, an assessment of both temporal and spatial variability of stream chemistry is required at a catchment scale. In addition, quantification of temporal variability needs to represent both episodic event response and long term variability caused by deposition and/or land-use change. Both spatial and temporal variability in streamwater chemistry are considered in a new modelling methodology based on application to the Plynlimon catchments, central Wales. A two-component End-Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA is used whereby low and high flow chemistry are taken to represent ‘groundwater’ and ‘soil water’ end-members. The conventional EMMA method is extended to incorporate spatial variability in the two end-members across the catchments by quantifying the Acid Neutralisation Capacity (ANC of each in terms of a statistical distribution. These are then input as stochastic variables to a two-component mixing model, thereby accounting for variability of ANC both spatially and temporally. The model is coupled to a long-term acidification model (MAGIC to predict the evolution of the end members and, hence, the response to future scenarios. The results can be plotted as a function of time and space, which enables better assessment of the likely effects of pollution deposition or land-use changes in the future on the stream chemistry than current methods which use catchment average values. The model is also a useful basis for further research into linkage between hydrochemistry

Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2015-12-01

Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

Assessing Heat Health Risk for Sustainability in Beijing’s Urban Heat Island

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weihua Dong

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This research is motivated by the increasing threat of urban heat waves that are likely worsened by pervasive global warming and urbanization. Different regions of the city including urban, borderland and rural area will experience different levels of heat health risk. In this paper, we propose an improved approach to quantitatively assess Beijing’s heat health risk based on three factors from hazard, vulnerability and especially environment which is considered as an independent factor because different land use/cover types have different influence on ambient air temperatures under the Urban Heat Island effect. The results show that the heat health risk of Beijing demonstrates a spatial-temporal pattern with higher risk in the urban area, lower risk in the borderland between urban and rural area, and lowest risk in the rural area, and the total risk fluctuated dramatically during 2008–2011. To be more specific, the heat health risk was clearly higher in 2009 and 2010 than in 2008 and 2011. Further analysis with the urban area at sub-district level signifies that the impervious surface (urban area such as buildings, roads, et al. ratio is of high correlation with the heat health risk. The validation results show that the proposed method improved the accuracy of heat health risk assessment. We recommend that policy makers should develop efficient urban planning to accomplish Beijing’s sustainable development.

Development and testing of an assessment to measure spatial thinking about enhanced greenhouse effect

Science.gov (United States)

Skaza, Heather Jean

Americans, in general, do not behave in environmentally sustainable ways. We drive cars and fly in planes that emit planet-warming carbon. We purchase food in nearly indestructible packaging that is not recycled or repurposed. We do not consider the environmental impact of the "stuff" stuffed into our grocery and department stores, most of which is made of materials that had to be dug out of the ground, leaving rivers and skies full of pollution in its place. Citizens have a responsibility to understand complex global and local environmental problems. A person's ability to think about the way that an environmental problem they are tasked with understanding changes over time and space can better prepare them to make sustainable decisions in the face of this complexity. Spatial thinking serves the learner's ability to understand the impact of environmental actions and should be given a consistent place in environmental education. Teaching practices and pedagogies that focus on spatial thinking are necessary to learners' success. In order to know if these strategies are successful, educators need an assessment tool that targets the spatial thinking skills necessary to understanding environmental problems. This dissertation project used a models and modeling theoretical framework to develop and test an assessment of students' spatial thinking abilities related to the environmental problem of enhanced greenhouse effect. This assessment was developed from a review of existing spatial thinking literature, research on existing assessments of spatial thinking abilities, and existing assessment of enhanced greenhouse effect. In addition, I interviewed and surveyed experts in science, math, and environmental education to elicit their perspectives on the spatial thinking skills necessary for learners to understand enhanced greenhouse effect. All of this information was synthesized into 14 Central Concepts of spatial thinking for enhanced greenhouse effect. The assessment was

Environmental risk assessment of white phosphorus from the use of munitions - a probabilistic approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Voie, Øyvind Albert; Johnsen, Arnt; Strømseng, Arnljot; Longva, Kjetil Sager

2010-03-15

White phosphorus (P(4)) is a highly toxic compound used in various pyrotechnic products. Ammunitions containing P(4) are widely used in military training areas where the unburned products of P(4) contaminate soil and local ponds. Traditional risk assessment methods presuppose a homogeneous spatial distribution of pollutants. The distribution of P(4) in military training areas is heterogeneous, which reduces the probability of potential receptors being exposed to the P(4) by ingestion, for example. The current approach to assess the environmental risk from the use of P(4) suggests a Bayesian network (Bn) as a risk assessment tool. The probabilistic reasoning supported by a Bn allows us to take into account the heterogeneous distribution of P(4). Furthermore, one can combine empirical data and expert knowledge, which allows the inclusion of all kinds of data that are relevant to the problem. The current work includes an example of the use of the Bn as a risk assessment tool where the risk for P(4) poisoning in humans and grazing animals at a military shooting range in Northern Norway was calculated. P(4) was detected in several craters on the range at concentrations up to 5.7g/kg. The risk to human health was considered acceptable under the current land use. The risk for grazing animals such as sheep, however, was higher, suggesting that precautionary measures may be advisable.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Seasonal and Spatial Variations of Heavy Metals in Two Typical Chinese Rivers: Concentrations, Environmental Risks, and Possible Sources

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Hong; Qian, Xin; Gao, Hailong; Wang, Yulei; Xia, Bisheng

2014-01-01

Ten metals were analyzed in samples collected in three seasons (the dry season, the early rainy season, and the late rainy season) from two rivers in China. No observed toxic effect concentrations were used to estimate the risks. The possible sources of the metals in each season, and the dominant source(s) at each site, were assessed using principal components analysis. The metal concentrations in the area studied were found, using t-tests, to vary both seasonally and spatially (P = 0.05). The potential risks in different seasons decreased in the order: early rainy season > dry season > late rainy season, and Cd was the dominant contributor to the total risks associated with heavy metal pollution in the two rivers. The high population and industrial site densities in the Taihu basin have had negative influences on the two rivers. The river that is used as a source of drinking water (the Taipu River) had a low average level of risks caused by the metals. Metals accumulated in environmental media were the main possible sources in the dry season, and emissions from mechanical manufacturing enterprises were the main possible sources in the rainy season. The river in the industrial area (the Wusong River) had a moderate level of risk caused by the metals, and the main sources were industrial emissions. The seasonal and spatial distributions of the heavy metals mean that risk prevention and mitigation measures should be targeted taking these variations into account. PMID:25407421

Seasonal and Spatial Variations of Heavy Metals in Two Typical Chinese Rivers: Concentrations, Environmental Risks, and Possible Sources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Yao

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Ten metals were analyzed in samples collected in three seasons (the dry season, the early rainy season, and the late rainy season from two rivers in China. No observed toxic effect concentrations were used to estimate the risks. The possible sources of the metals in each season, and the dominant source(s at each site, were assessed using principal components analysis. The metal concentrations in the area studied were found, using t-tests, to vary both seasonally and spatially (P = 0.05. The potential risks in different seasons decreased in the order: early rainy season > dry season > late rainy season, and Cd was the dominant contributor to the total risks associated with heavy metal pollution in the two rivers. The high population and industrial site densities in the Taihu basin have had negative influences on the two rivers. The river that is used as a source of drinking water (the Taipu River had a low average level of risks caused by the metals. Metals accumulated in environmental media were the main possible sources in the dry season, and emissions from mechanical manufacturing enterprises were the main possible sources in the rainy season. The river in the industrial area (the Wusong River had a moderate level of risk caused by the metals, and the main sources were industrial emissions. The seasonal and spatial distributions of the heavy metals mean that risk prevention and mitigation measures should be targeted taking these variations into account.

Your View or Mine: Spatially Quantifying CO2 Storage Risk from Various Stakeholder Perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Bielicki, J. M.; Pollak, M.; Wilson, E.; Elliot, T. R.; Guo, B.; Nogues, J. P.; Peters, C. A.

2011-12-01

CO2 capture and storage involves injecting captured CO2 into geologic formations, such as deep saline aquifers. This injected CO2 is to be "stored" within the rock matrix for hundreds to thousands of years, but injected CO2, or the brine it displaces, may leak from the target reservoir. Such leakage could interfere with other subsurface activities-water production, energy production, energy storage, and waste disposal-or migrate to the surface. Each of these interferences will incur multiple costs to a variety of stakeholders. Even if injected or displaced fluids do not interfere with other subsurface activities or make their way to the surface, costs will be incurred to find and fix the leak. Consequently, the suitability of a site for CO2 storage must therefore include an assessment of the risk of leakage and interference with various other activities within a three-dimensional proximity of where CO2 is being injected. We present a spatial analysis of leakage and interference risk associated with injecting CO2 into a portion of the Mount Simon sandstone in the Michigan Basin. Risk is the probability of an outcome multiplied by the impact of that outcome (Ro=po*Io). An outcome is the result of the leakage (e.g., interference with oil production), and the impact is the cost associated with the outcome. Each outcome has costs that will vary by stakeholder. Our analysis presents CO2 storage risk for multiple outcomes in a spatially explicit manner that varies by stakeholder. We use the ELSA semi-analytical model for estimating CO2 and brine leakage from aquifers to determine plume and pressure front radii, and CO2 and brine leakage probabilities for the Mount Simon sandstone and multiple units above it. Results of ELSA simulations are incorporated into RISCS: the Risk Interference Subsurface CO2 Storage model. RISCS uses three-dimensional data on subsurface geology and the locations of wells and boreholes to spatially estimate risks associated with CO2 leakage from

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Spatial Assessment of Road Traffic Injuries in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA: Spatial Analysis Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sina Tehranchi

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This research presents a Geographic Information Systems (GIS and spatial analysis approach based on the global spatial autocorrelation of road traffic injuries for identifying spatial patterns. A locational spatial autocorrelation was also used for identifying traffic injury at spatial level. Data for this research study were acquired from Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI based on 2004 and 2011. Moran’s I statistics were used to examine spatial patterns of road traffic injuries in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA. An assessment of Getis-Ord Gi* statistic was followed as to identify hot spots and cold spots within the study area. The results revealed that Peel and Durham have the highest collision rate for other motor vehicle with motor vehicle. Geographic weighted regression (GWR technique was conducted to test the relationships between the dependent variable, number of road traffic injury incidents and independent variables such as number of seniors, low education, unemployed, vulnerable groups, people smoking and drinking, urban density and average median income. The result of this model suggested that number of seniors and low education have a very strong correlation with the number of road traffic injury incidents.

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Spatial Thinking Ability Assessment in Rwandan Secondary Schools: Baseline Results

Science.gov (United States)

Tomaszewski, Brian; Vodacek, Anthony; Parody, Robert; Holt, Nicholas

2015-01-01

This article discusses use and modification of Lee and Bednarz's (2012) Spatial Thinking Ability Test (STAT) as a spatial thinking assessment device in Rwandan secondary schools. After piloting and modifying the STAT, 222 students total from our rural and urban test schools and one control school were tested. Statistical analysis revealed that…

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

Spatial distribution and risk assessment of heavy metals in soil near a Pb/Zn smelter in Feng County, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Feng; Liao, Renmei; Ali, Amjad; Mahar, Amanullah; Guo, Di; Li, Ronghua; Xining, Sun; Awasthi, Mukesh Kumar; Wang, Quan; Zhang, Zengqiang

2017-05-01

A large scale survey and a small scale continuous monitoring was conducted to evaluate the impact of Pb/Zn smelting on soil heavy metals (HMs) accumulation and potential ecological risk in Feng County, Shaanxi province of China. Soil parameters including pH, texture, CEC, spatial and temporal distribution of HMs (Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn), and BCR fractionation were monitored accordingly. The results showed the topsoil in the proximity of smelter, especially the smelter area and county seat, were highly polluted by HMs in contrast to the river basins. Fractionation of Cd and Zn in soil samples revealed higher proportion of mobile fractions than other HMs. The soil Cd and Zn contents decreased vertically, but still exceeded the second level limits of Environmental Quality Standard for Soils of China (EQSS) within 80cm. The dominated soil pollutant (Cd) had higher ecological risk than Cu, Ni, Zn and Pb. The potential ecological risk (PER) factor of Cd were 65.7% and 100% in surrounding county and smelter area, respectively. The long-term smelter dust emission mainly contributed to the HMs pollution and posed serious environment risk to living beings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Pixels, Blocks of Pixels, and Polygons: Choosing a Spatial Unit for Thematic Accuracy Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Pixels, polygons, and blocks of pixels are all potentially viable spatial assessment units for conducting an accuracy assessment. We develop a statistical population-based framework to examine how the spatial unit chosen affects the outcome of an accuracy assessment. The populati...

The Spatial Assessment of the Current Seismic Hazard State for Hard Rock Underground Mines

Science.gov (United States)

Wesseloo, Johan

2018-06-01

Mining-induced seismic hazard assessment is an important component in the management of safety and financial risk in mines. As the seismic hazard is a response to the mining activity, it is non-stationary and variable both in space and time. This paper presents an approach for implementing a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment to assess the current hazard state of a mine. Each of the components of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is considered within the context of hard rock underground mines. The focus of this paper is the assessment of the in-mine hazard distribution and does not consider the hazard to nearby public or structures. A rating system and methodologies to present hazard maps, for the purpose of communicating to different stakeholders in the mine, i.e. mine managers, technical personnel and the work force, are developed. The approach allows one to update the assessment with relative ease and within short time periods as new data become available, enabling the monitoring of the spatial and temporal change in the seismic hazard.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

Strategic Risk Assessment: A Decision Tool for Complex Decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pollard, Simon; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel; Yearsley, Roger [Environment Agency, London (United Kingdom). National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal; Kemp, Ray; Crawford, Mark [Galson Sciences Limited, Oakham (United Kingdom)

2001-07-01

Reporting on the state of the environment often requires policy makers and regulators to prioritise a range of diverse environmental issues for the purpose of directing future action on environmental protection and improvement. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of analysis can be disparate, it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy comparison. Nevertheless, strategic judgements are required on the significance of impacts from various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties. Prioritising issues forces a discussion among stakeholders of the relative significance of 'environmental harm' from pressures acting on various receptors in the environment. Discussions of this sort rapidly evolve into a discourse on risks and values. In an attempt to help systematise these discussions and provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has initiated developmental research on strategic risk assessment. The tools developed under this research use the concept of 'environmental harm' as a common currency, viewed from technical, social and economic perspectives, to analyse impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate is an understanding and analysis both of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to the actual or potential environmental harm. Recent developments in this approach allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk management decisions. Here, we present recent developments in the strategic risk assessment research tool, as tested by case studies from state of the environment reporting and the analysis of a regional environmental plan. We discuss its relative advantages and limitations and its

Strategic Risk Assessment: A Decision Tool for Complex Decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pollard, Simon; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel; Yearsley, Roger

2001-01-01

Reporting on the state of the environment often requires policy makers and regulators to prioritise a range of diverse environmental issues for the purpose of directing future action on environmental protection and improvement. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of analysis can be disparate, it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy comparison. Nevertheless, strategic judgements are required on the significance of impacts from various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties. Prioritising issues forces a discussion among stakeholders of the relative significance of 'environmental harm' from pressures acting on various receptors in the environment. Discussions of this sort rapidly evolve into a discourse on risks and values. In an attempt to help systematise these discussions and provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has initiated developmental research on strategic risk assessment. The tools developed under this research use the concept of 'environmental harm' as a common currency, viewed from technical, social and economic perspectives, to analyse impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate is an understanding and analysis both of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to the actual or potential environmental harm. Recent developments in this approach allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk management decisions. Here, we present recent developments in the strategic risk assessment research tool, as tested by case studies from state of the environment reporting and the analysis of a regional environmental plan. We discuss its relative advantages and limitations and its wider potential role

Towards a resource-based habitat approach for spatial modelling of vector-borne disease risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartemink, Nienke; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Purse, Bethan V; Gilbert, Marius; Van Dyck, Hans

2015-11-01

Given the veterinary and public health impact of vector-borne diseases, there is a clear need to assess the suitability of landscapes for the emergence and spread of these diseases. Current approaches for predicting disease risks neglect key features of the landscape as components of the functional habitat of vectors or hosts, and hence of the pathogen. Empirical-statistical methods do not explicitly incorporate biological mechanisms, whereas current mechanistic models are rarely spatially explicit; both methods ignore the way animals use the landscape (i.e. movement ecology). We argue that applying a functional concept for habitat, i.e. the resource-based habitat concept (RBHC), can solve these issues. The RBHC offers a framework to identify systematically the different ecological resources that are necessary for the completion of the transmission cycle and to relate these resources to (combinations of) landscape features and other environmental factors. The potential of the RBHC as a framework for identifying suitable habitats for vector-borne pathogens is explored and illustrated with the case of bluetongue virus, a midge-transmitted virus affecting ruminants. The concept facilitates the study of functional habitats of the interacting species (vectors as well as hosts) and provides new insight into spatial and temporal variation in transmission opportunities and exposure that ultimately determine disease risks. It may help to identify knowledge gaps and control options arising from changes in the spatial configuration of key resources across the landscape. The RBHC framework may act as a bridge between existing mechanistic and statistical modelling approaches. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew C. Fisher

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history variables with the pathogen's predicted distribution. We apply our rule set to the known global diversity of amphibians in order to prioritize pecies that are most at risk of loss from disease emergence. This risk assessment shows where limited conservation funds are best deployed in order to prevent further loss of species by enabling ex situ amphibian salvage operations and focusing any potential disease mitigation projects.

A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com

2013-10-15

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management

Risk assessments ensure safer power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-02-19

A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

Evaluation of potential human health effects associated with the agricultural uses of 1,3-D: Spatial and temporal stochastic risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Driver, Jeffrey H., E-mail: jeff@risksciences.net [risksciences.net, LLC, 10009 Wisakon Trail, Manassas, VA 20111 (United States); Price, Paul S. [The Dow Chemical Company, 1803 Building, Midland, MI 48674 (United States); Van Wesenbeeck, Ian [Dow AgroSciences, LLC, 9330 Zionsville Road, Indianapolis, IN 46268 (United States); Ross, John H. [risksciences.net, LLC, 5150 Fair Oaks Blvd., Ste. 101-370, Carmichael, CA 95608 (United States); Gehen, Sean [Dow AgroSciences, LLC, 9330 Zionsville Road, Indianapolis, IN 46268 (United States); Holden, Larry R. [Larry R. Holden, Statistical Consulting, 1403 Post Oak Circle, College Station, TX (United States); Landenberger, Bryce [The Dow Chemical Company, 1803 Building, Midland, MI 48674 (United States); Hastings, Kerry; Yan, Zhongyu; Rasoulpour, Reza [Dow AgroSciences, LLC, 9330 Zionsville Road, Indianapolis, IN 46268 (United States)

2016-11-15

Dow AgroSciences (DAS) markets and sells 1,3-Dichloropropene (1,3-D), the active ingredient in Telone®, which is used as a pre-plant soil fumigant nematicide in economically important crops in California. 1,3-D has been regulated as a “probable human carcinogen” and the California Department of Pesticide Regulation limits use of 1,3-D based on human health risk assessments for bystanders. This paper presents a risk characterization for bystanders based on advances in the assessment of both exposure and hazard. The revised bystander risk assessment incorporates significant advances: 1) new data on residency duration and mobility in communities where 1,3-D is in high demand; 2) new information on spatial and temporal concentrations of 1,3-D in air based on multi-year modeling using a validated model; and 3) a new stochastic spatial and temporal model of long-term exposures. Predicted distributions of long-term, chronic exposures indicate that current, and anticipated uses of 1,3-D would result in lifetime average daily doses lower than 0.002 mg/kg/d, a dose associated with theoretical lifetime excess cancer risk of < 10{sup −} {sup 5} to > 95% of the local population based on a non-threshold risk assessment approach. Additionally, examination of 1,3-D toxicity studies including new chronic toxicity data and mechanism of action supports the use of a non-linear, threshold based risk assessment approach. The estimated maximum annual average daily dose of < 0.0016 mg/kg/d derived from the updated exposure assessment was then compared with a threshold point of departure. The calculated margin of exposure is > 1000-fold, a clear indication of acceptable risk for human health. In summary, the best available science supports 1,3-D's threshold nature of hazard and the revised exposure assessment supports that current agricultural uses of 1,3-D are associated with reasonable certainty of no harm, i.e., estimated long-term exposures pose insignificant health risks

Using spatial information about recurrence risk for robust optimization of dose-painting prescription functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bender, Edward T.

2012-01-01

Purpose: To develop a robust method for deriving dose-painting prescription functions using spatial information about the risk for disease recurrence. Methods: Spatial distributions of radiobiological model parameters are derived from distributions of recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. These model parameters are then used to derive optimal dose-painting prescription functions given a constant mean biologically effective dose. Results: An estimate for the optimal dose distribution can be derived based on spatial information about recurrence risk. Dose painting based on imaging markers that are moderately or poorly correlated with recurrence risk are predicted to potentially result in inferior disease control when compared the same mean biologically effective dose delivered uniformly. A robust optimization approach may partially mitigate this issue. Conclusions: The methods described here can be used to derive an estimate for a robust, patient-specific prescription function for use in dose painting. Two approximate scaling relationships were observed: First, the optimal choice for the maximum dose differential when using either a linear or two-compartment prescription function is proportional to R, where R is the Pearson correlation coefficient between a given imaging marker and recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. Second, the predicted maximum possible gain in tumor control probability for any robust optimization technique is nearly proportional to the square of R.

Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a

Risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

2010-01-01

International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

Spatial distribution of, and risk factors for, Opisthorchis viverrini infection in southern Lao PDR.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Armelle Forrer

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Opisthorchis viverrini is a food-borne trematode species that might give rise to biliary diseases and the fatal cholangiocarcinoma. In Lao PDR, an estimated 2.5 million individuals are infected with O. viverrini, but epidemiological studies are scarce and the spatial distribution of infection remains to be determined. Our aim was to map the distribution of O. viverrini in southern Lao PDR, identify underlying risk factors, and predict the prevalence of O. viverrini at non-surveyed locations. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional parasitological and questionnaire survey was carried out in 51 villages in Champasack province in the first half of 2007. Data on demography, socioeconomic status, water supply, sanitation, and behavior were combined with remotely sensed environmental data and fed into a geographical information system. Bayesian geostatistical models were employed to identify risk factors and to investigate the spatial pattern of O. viverrini infection. Bayesian kriging was utilized to predict infection risk at non-surveyed locations. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The prevalence of O. viverrini among 3,371 study participants with complete data records was 61.1%. Geostatistical models identified age, Lao Loum ethnic group, educational attainment, occupation (i.e., rice farmer, fisherman, and animal breeder, and unsafe drinking water source as risk factors for infection. History of praziquantel treatment, access to sanitation, and distance to freshwater bodies were found to be protective factors. Spatial patterns of O. viverrini were mainly governed by environmental factors with predictive modeling identifying two different risk profiles: low risk of O. viverrini in the mountains and high risk in the Mekong corridor. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We present the first risk map of O. viverrini infection in Champasack province, which is important for spatial targeting of control efforts. Infection with O. viverrini appears to be strongly associated

A framework for widespread replication of a highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Dohyeong; Galeano, M Alicia Overstreet; Hull, Andrew; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2008-12-01

Preventive approaches to childhood lead poisoning are critical for addressing this longstanding environmental health concern. Moreover, increasing evidence of cognitive effects of blood lead levels system-based childhood lead exposure risk models, especially if executed at highly resolved spatial scales, can help identify children most at risk of lead exposure, as well as prioritize and direct housing and health-protective intervention programs. However, developing highly resolved spatial data requires labor-and time-intensive geocoding and analytical processes. In this study we evaluated the benefit of increased effort spent geocoding in terms of improved performance of lead exposure risk models. We constructed three childhood lead exposure risk models based on established methods but using different levels of geocoded data from blood lead surveillance, county tax assessors, and the 2000 U.S. Census for 18 counties in North Carolina. We used the results to predict lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit. The models performed well enough to identify high-risk areas for targeted intervention, even with a relatively low level of effort on geocoding. This study demonstrates the feasibility of widespread replication of highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk models. The models guide resource-constrained local health and housing departments and community-based organizations on how best to expend their efforts in preventing and mitigating lead exposure risk in their communities.

A GIS-based tool for an integrated assessment of spatial planning trade-offs with aquaculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Gimpel, Antje; Stelzenmüller, Vanessa; Töpsch, Sandra; Galparsoro, Ibon; Gubbins, Matthew; Miller, David; Murillas, Arantza; Murray, Alexander G; Pınarbaşı, Kemal; Roca, Guillem; Watret, Robert

2018-06-15

The increasing demand for protein from aquaculture will trigger a global expansion of the sector in coastal and offshore waters. While contributing to food security, potential conflicts with other traditional activities such as fisheries or tourism are inevitable, thus calling for decision-support tools to assess aquaculture planning scenarios in a multi-use context. Here we introduce the AquaSpace tool, one of the first Geographic Information System (GIS)-based planning tools empowering an integrated assessment and mapping of 30 indicators reflecting economic, environmental, inter-sectorial and socio-cultural risks and opportunities for proposed aquaculture systems in a marine environment. A bottom-up process consulting more than 350 stakeholders from 10 countries across southern and northern Europe enabled the direct consideration of stakeholder needs when developing the GIS AddIn. The AquaSpace tool is an open source product and builds in the prospective use of open source datasets at a European scale, hence aiming to improve reproducibility and collaboration in aquaculture science and research. Tool outputs comprise detailed reports and graphics allowing key stakeholders such as planners or licensing authorities to evaluate and communicate alternative planning scenarios and to take more informed decisions. With the help of the German North Sea case study we demonstrate here the tool application at multiple spatial scales with different aquaculture systems and under a range of space-related development constraints. The computation of these aquaculture planning scenarios and the assessment of their trade-offs showed that it is entirely possible to identify aquaculture sites, that correspondent to multifarious potential challenges, for instance by a low conflict potential, a low risk of disease spread, a comparable high economic profit and a low impact on touristic attractions. We believe that a transparent visualisation of risks and opportunities of aquaculture

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Implementing Strategic Environmental Assessment of spatial planning tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Montis, Andrea

2013-01-01

After more than a decade from the publication of the European Directive 2001/42/CE (Directive) on Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), the design and construction of the interested spatial planning instruments has gone through a variety of changes and integrations in European and in world states. This inhomogeneous panorama can be explained with a pattern of institutional structures that have so far affected the implementation of the Directive. The aim of this paper is to investigate the level of implementation of the Directive in Italy by developing a comparative analysis of the quality of integration of SEA within the design of the spatial coordination plan of a set of Italian provinces. Italian practice is analyzed in the framework of a comparative study of worldwide SEA implementation within spatial and land use planning. The results reveal strengths and weaknesses in SEA implementation at the provincial level and, in particular, the emergence of critical areas of research concerning institutional context, public participation, monitoring, and observatory of the spatial transformations. -- Highlights: • This is a comparative analysis of SEA in strategic spatial planning in Italy. • The adhesion of Provinces to the study is remarkable. • SEA implementation and integration into spatial planning is still moderate. • Participation via consultations should be more widespread. • Monitoring and institution of observatories are still in an infancy stage

Assessing the Development of Kenya National Spatial Data

African Journals Online (AJOL)

okuku

Keywords: Spatial data infrastructure, Kenya NSDI, development, assessment, ... of a nation can be used for; network survey of coordinates, waterways, ... to European community (INSPIRE) at the European national, regional and .... Digitisation efforts were spearheaded by the joint cooperation of JICA (Japan international.

Assessing Wildland Fire Risk Transmission to Communities in Northern Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fermín J. Alcasena

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain. Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306 in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert judgement. Fire exposure was estimated by simulating 50,000 fire events that replicated extreme (97th percentile historical fire weather conditions. Spatial ignition probabilities were used in the simulations to account for non-random ignitions, and were estimated from a fire occurrence model generated with an artificial neural network. The results showed that ignition probability explained most of spatial variation in risk, with economic value of structures having only a minor effect. Average expected loss to residential houses from a single wildfire event in the study area was 7955€, and ranged from a low of 740 to the high of 28,725€. Major fire flow-paths were analyzed to understand fire transmission from surrounding municipalities and showed that incoming fires from the north exhibited strong pathways into the core of the study area, and fires spreading from the south had the highest likelihood of reaching target residential structures from the longest distances (>5 km. Community firesheds revealed the scale of risk to communities and extended well beyond administrative boundaries. The results provided a quantitative risk assessment that can be used by insurance companies and local landscape managers to prioritize and allocate investments to treat wildland fuels and identify clusters of high expected loss within communities. The methodological framework can be extended to other fire-prone southern European Union countries where communities are threatened by large wildland fires.

Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic urban environments: RiskScape and the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Deligne, N. I.; Leonard, G.; King, A.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T.; Lindsay, J. M.

2013-12-01

Auckland city, home to a third of New Zealand's population, is situated on top of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), which last erupted roughly 500 years ago. Since 2008, the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) program has investigated the geologic context of the AVF, improved timing constraints of past eruptions, explored possible tempo-spatial-volume eruption trends, and identified likely styles and hazards of future eruptions. DEVORA is now moving into development of risk and societal models for Auckland. The volcanic module of RiskScape, a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by Crown Research Institutes GNS Science and NIWA, will be expanded and used to model risk and impact to the built environment and population caused by a future AVF eruption. RiskScape models casualties, damage and disruption caused by various hazards, the resulting reduced functionality of assets, and associated clean up costs. A strength of RiskScape is that the effect of various mitigation strategies can be explored by strengthening asset attributes and examining resulting changes in the output risk evaluation. We present our framework for building a volcano hazard exposure module for RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability through the development of fragility functions. We also present the framework for engagement with regional Auckland stakeholders, including representatives of local and regional governments and utility companies, to identify complementary needs to ensure that final risk products are relevant and useable by end users.

The Symbiose project: an integrated framework for performing environmental radiological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonze, M.A.; Mourlon, C.; Garcia-Sanchez, L.; Beaugelin, K.; Chen, T.; Le Dizes, S.

2004-01-01

Human health and ecological risk assessments usually require the integration of a wide range of environmental data and modelling approaches, with a varying level of detail dependent on the management objectives, the complexity of the site and the level of ignorance about the pollutant behaviour/toxicity. Like most scientists and assessors did it recently, we recognized the need for developing comprehensive, integrated and flexible approaches to risk assessment. To meet these needs, IRSN launched the Symbiose project (2002-2006) which aims first, at designing a framework for integrating and managing data, methods and knowledge of some relevance in radiological risk to humans/biota assessment studies, and second, at implementing this framework in an information management, modelling and calculation platform. Feasibility developments (currently completed) led to the specification of a fully integrated, object-oriented and hierarchical approach for describing the fate, transport and effect of radionuclides in spatially-distributed environmental systems. This innovative approach has then been implemented in a platform prototype, main components of which are a user-friendly and modular simulation environment (e.g. using GoldSim toolbox), and a hierarchical object-oriented biosphere database. Both conceptual and technical developments will be presented here. (author)

Spatial Distribution of Dengue in a Brazilian Urban Slum Setting: Role of Socioeconomic Gradient in Disease Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Kikuti, Mariana; Cunha, Geraldo M; Paploski, Igor A D; Kasper, Amelia M; Silva, Monaise M O; Tavares, Aline S; Cruz, Jaqueline S; Queiroz, Tássia L; Rodrigues, Moreno S; Santana, Perla M; Lima, Helena C A V; Calcagno, Juan; Takahashi, Daniele; Gonçalves, André H O; Araújo, Josélio M G; Gauthier, Kristine; Diuk-Wasser, Maria A; Kitron, Uriel; Ko, Albert I; Reis, Mitermayer G; Ribeiro, Guilherme S

2015-01-01

Few studies of dengue have shown group-level associations between demographic, socioeconomic, or geographic characteristics and the spatial distribution of dengue within small urban areas. This study aimed to examine whether specific characteristics of an urban slum community were associated with the risk of dengue disease. From 01/2009 to 12/2010, we conducted enhanced, community-based surveillance in the only public emergency unit in a slum in Salvador, Brazil to identify acute febrile illness (AFI) patients with laboratory evidence of dengue infection. Patient households were geocoded within census tracts (CTs). Demographic, socioeconomic, and geographical data were obtained from the 2010 national census. Associations between CTs characteristics and the spatial risk of both dengue and non-dengue AFI were assessed by Poisson log-normal and conditional auto-regressive models (CAR). We identified 651 (22.0%) dengue cases among 2,962 AFI patients. Estimated risk of symptomatic dengue was 21.3 and 70.2 cases per 10,000 inhabitants in 2009 and 2010, respectively. All the four dengue serotypes were identified, but DENV2 predominated (DENV1: 8.1%; DENV2: 90.7%; DENV3: 0.4%; DENV4: 0.8%). Multivariable CAR regression analysis showed increased dengue risk in CTs with poorer inhabitants (RR: 1.02 for each percent increase in the frequency of families earning ≤1 times the minimum wage; 95% CI: 1.01-1.04), and decreased risk in CTs located farther from the health unit (RR: 0.87 for each 100 meter increase; 95% CI: 0.80-0.94). The same CTs characteristics were also associated with non-dengue AFI risk. This study highlights the large burden of symptomatic dengue on individuals living in urban slums in Brazil. Lower neighborhood socioeconomic status was independently associated with increased risk of dengue, indicating that within slum communities with high levels of absolute poverty, factors associated with the social gradient influence dengue transmission. In addition, poor

A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Karin L. Riley; Christopher M. Oswalt; Susan J. Crocker; Gary W. Yohe

2013-01-01

Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and...

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Pollution Characteristics and Health Risk Assessment of Airborne Heavy Metals Collected from Beijing Bus Stations

OpenAIRE

Zheng, Xiaoxia; Zhao, Wenji; Yan, Xing; Shu, Tongtong; Xiong, Qiulin; Chen, Fantao

2015-01-01

Airborne dust, which contains high levels of toxic metals, is recognized as one of the most harmful environment component. The purpose of this study was to evaluate heavy metals pollution in dustfall from bus stations in Beijing, and to perform a risk assessment analysis for adult passengers. The concentrations of Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS). The spatial distribution, pollution level and potential health risk of...

Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Rausand, Marvin

2011-01-01

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

2004-01-01

This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

Assessment of soil erosion risk in Komering watershed, South Sumatera, using SWAT model

Science.gov (United States)

Salsabilla, A.; Kusratmoko, E.

2017-07-01

Changes in land use watershed led to environmental degradation. Estimated loss of soil erosion is often difficult due to some factors such as topography, land use, climate and human activities. This study aims to predict soil erosion hazard and sediment yield using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model. The SWAT was chosen because it can simulate the model with limited data. The study area is Komering watershed (806,001 Ha) in South Sumatera Province. There are two factors land management intervention: 1) land with agriculture, and 2) land with cultivation. These factors selected in accordance with the regulations of spatial plan area. Application of the SWAT demonstrated that the model can predict surface runoff, soil erosion loss and sediment yield. The erosion risk for each watershed can be classified and predicted its changes based on the scenarios which arranged. In this paper, we also discussed the relationship between the distribution of erosion risk and watershed's characteristics in a spatial perspective.

Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes

KAUST Repository

Jun, M.; Katzfuss, M.; Hu, J.; Johnson, V. E.

2014-01-01

© 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Gaussian random fields are frequently used to model spatial and spatial-temporal data, particularly in geostatistical settings. As much of the attention of the statistics community has been focused on defining and estimating the mean and covariance functions of these processes, little effort has been devoted to developing goodness-of-fit tests to allow users to assess the models' adequacy. We describe a general goodness-of-fit test and related graphical diagnostics for assessing the fit of Bayesian Gaussian process models using pivotal discrepancy measures. Our method is applicable for both regularly and irregularly spaced observation locations on planar and spherical domains. The essential idea behind our method is to evaluate pivotal quantities defined for a realization of a Gaussian random field at parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution. Because the nominal distribution of the resulting pivotal discrepancy measures is known, it is possible to quantitatively assess model fit directly from the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to sample from the posterior distribution on the parameter space. We illustrate our method in a simulation study and in two applications.

Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes

KAUST Repository

Jun, M.

2014-09-16

© 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Gaussian random fields are frequently used to model spatial and spatial-temporal data, particularly in geostatistical settings. As much of the attention of the statistics community has been focused on defining and estimating the mean and covariance functions of these processes, little effort has been devoted to developing goodness-of-fit tests to allow users to assess the models\\' adequacy. We describe a general goodness-of-fit test and related graphical diagnostics for assessing the fit of Bayesian Gaussian process models using pivotal discrepancy measures. Our method is applicable for both regularly and irregularly spaced observation locations on planar and spherical domains. The essential idea behind our method is to evaluate pivotal quantities defined for a realization of a Gaussian random field at parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution. Because the nominal distribution of the resulting pivotal discrepancy measures is known, it is possible to quantitatively assess model fit directly from the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to sample from the posterior distribution on the parameter space. We illustrate our method in a simulation study and in two applications.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics in Air Pollution Exposure Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Dias, Daniela; Tchepel, Oxana

2018-01-01

Analyzing individual exposure in urban areas offers several challenges where both the individual’s activities and air pollution levels demonstrate a large degree of spatial and temporal dynamics. This review article discusses the concepts, key elements, current developments in assessing personal exposure to urban air pollution (seventy-two studies reviewed) and respective advantages and disadvantages. A new conceptual structure to organize personal exposure assessment methods is proposed according to two classification criteria: (i) spatial-temporal variations of individuals’ activities (point-fixed or trajectory based) and (ii) characterization of air quality (variable or uniform). This review suggests that the spatial and temporal variability of urban air pollution levels in combination with indoor exposures and individual’s time-activity patterns are key elements of personal exposure assessment. In the literature review, the majority of revised studies (44 studies) indicate that the trajectory based with variable air quality approach provides a promising framework for tackling the important question of inter- and intra-variability of individual exposure. However, future quantitative comparison between the different approaches should be performed, and the selection of the most appropriate approach for exposure quantification should take into account the purpose of the health study. This review provides a structured basis for the intercomparing of different methodologies and to make their advantages and limitations more transparent in addressing specific research objectives. PMID:29558426

Morphometric Analysis to Prioritize Sub-Watershed for Flood Risk Assessment in Central Karakoram National Park Using Gis/rs Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Syed, N. H.; Rehman, A. A.; Hussain, D.; Ishaq, S.; Khan, A. A.

2017-11-01

Morphometric analysis is vital for any watershed investigation and it is inevitable for flood risk assessment in sub-watershed basins. Present study undertaken to carry out critical evaluation and assessment of sub watershed morphological parameters for flood risk assessment of Central Karakorum National Park (CKNP), where Geographical information system and remote sensing (GIS & RS) approach used for quantifying the parameter and mapping of sub watershed units. ASTER DEM used as a geo-spatial data for watershed delineation and stream network. Morphometric analysis carried out using spatial analyst tool of ArcGIS 10.2. The parameters included were bifurcation ratio (Rb), Drainage Texture (Rt), Circulatory ratio (Rc), Elongated ratio (Re), Drainage density (Dd), Stream Length (Lu), Stream order (Su), Slope and Basin length (Lb) have calculated separately. The analysis revealed that the stream order varies from order 1 to 6 and the total numbers of stream segments of all orders were 52. Multi criteria analysis process used to calculate the risk factor. As an accomplished result, map of sub watershed prioritization developed using weighted standardized risk factor. These results helped to understand sensitivity of flush floods in different sub watersheds of the study area and leaded to better management of the mountainous regions in prospect of flush floods.

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

A quantitative risk assessment approach for mosquito-borne diseases: malaria re-emergence in southern France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luty Adrian JF

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Camargue region is a former malaria endemic area, where potential Anopheles vectors are still abundant. Considering the importation of Plasmodium due to the high number of imported malaria cases in France, the aim of this article was to make some predictions regarding the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue. Methods Receptivity (vectorial capacity and infectivity (vector susceptibility were inferred using an innovative probabilistic approach and considering both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Each parameter of receptivity (human biting rate, anthropophily, length of trophogonic cycle, survival rate, length of sporogonic cycle and infectivity were estimated based on field survey, bibliographic data and expert knowledge and fitted with probability distributions taking into account the variability and the uncertainty of the estimation. Spatial and temporal variations of the parameters were determined using environmental factors derived from satellite imagery, meteorological data and entomological field data. The entomological risk (receptivity/infectivity was calculated using 10,000 different randomly selected sets of values extracted from the probability distributions. The result was mapped in the Camargue area. Finally, vulnerability (number of malaria imported cases was inferred using data collected in regional hospitals. Results The entomological risk presented large spatial, temporal and Plasmodium species-dependent variations. The sensitivity analysis showed that susceptibility, survival rate and human biting rate were the three most influential parameters for entomological risk. Assessment of vulnerability showed that among the imported cases in the region, only very few were imported in at-risk areas. Conclusion The current risk of malaria re-emergence seems negligible due to the very low number of imported Plasmodium. This model demonstrated its efficiency for mosquito-borne diseases risk

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE