WorldWideScience

Sample records for southern oscillation weather

  1. A Spatial Hierarchical Analysis of the Temporal Influences of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Weather on Dengue in Kalutara District, Sri Lanka

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    Prasad Liyanage

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is the major public health burden in Sri Lanka. Kalutara is one of the highly affected districts. Understanding the drivers of dengue is vital in controlling and preventing the disease spread. This study focuses on quantifying the influence of weather variability on dengue incidence over 10 Medical Officer of Health (MOH divisions of Kalutara district. Weekly weather variables and data on dengue notifications, measured at 10 MOH divisions in Kalutara from 2009 to 2013, were retrieved and analysed. Distributed lag non-linear model and hierarchical-analysis was used to estimate division specific and overall relationships between weather and dengue. We incorporated lag times up to 12 weeks and evaluated models based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Consistent exposure-response patterns between different geographical locations were observed for rainfall, showing increasing relative risk of dengue with increasing rainfall from 50 mm per week. The strongest association with dengue risk centred around 6 to 10 weeks following rainfalls of more than 300 mm per week. With increasing temperature, the overall relative risk of dengue increased steadily starting from a lag of 4 weeks. We found similarly a strong link between the Oceanic Niño Index to weather patterns in the district in Sri Lanka and to dengue at a longer latency time confirming these relationships. Part of the influences of rainfall and temperature can be seen as mediator in the causal pathway of the Ocean Niño Index, which may allow a longer lead time for early warning signals. Our findings describe a strong association between weather, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue in Sri Lanka.

  2. Climate Prediction Center Southern Oscillation Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature (SST)Indices. It contains Southern Oscillation Index which is standardized sea level...

  3. Disturbed solution of the El Niño-southern oscillation sea—air delayed oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Feng; Lin Wan-Tao; Lin Yi-Hua; Mo Jia-Qi

    2011-01-01

    A class of delayed oscillators of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) models is considered. Using the delayed theory, the perturbed theory and other methods, the asymptotic expansions of the solutions for ENSO models are obtained and the asymptotic behaviour of solution of corresponding problem is studied. (general)

  4. Modified variational iteration method for an El Niño Southern Oscillation delayed oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Xiao-Qun; Song Jun-Qiang; Zhu Xiao-Qian; Zhang Li-Lun; Zhang Wei-Min; Zhao Jun

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies a delayed air—sea coupled oscillator describing the physical mechanism of El Niño Southern Oscillation. The approximate expansions of the delayed differential equation's solution are obtained successfully by the modified variational iteration method. The numerical results illustrate the effectiveness and correctness of the method by comparing with the exact solution of the reduced model. (general)

  5. Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.

    2017-08-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12-14, 61-75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.Plain Language SummaryThe Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and our human activities. This work can help predict both long-term and short-term future ENSO events and to assess the risk of future climate hysteresis changes: is the elastic band that regulates the ENSO climate breaking? We update the current theory of the ENSO process with a sophisticated analysis approach (Dominant Frequency State Analysis) to include long-term oscillations (up to 200 years) as well as tropical and extratropical interaction dynamics. The analysis uses instrumental and paleoproxy data

  6. Are the North Atlantic oscillation and the southern oscillation related in any time-scale?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, R.; Ribera, P.; Hernandez, E. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain). Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas; Gimenoo, L. [Fac. Ciencias, Univ. Vigo, Ourense (Spain)

    2000-02-01

    The north Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and the southern oscillation (SO) are compared from the standpoint of a possible common temporal scale of oscillation. To do this a cross-spectrum of the temporal series of NAO and SO indices was determined, finding a significant common oscillation of 6-8 years. To assure this finding, both series were decomposed in their main oscillations using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Resulting reconstructed series of 6-8 years' oscillation were then cross-correlated without and with pre-whitened, the latter being significant. The main conclusion is a possible relationship between a common oscillation of 6-8 years that represents about 20% of the SO variance and about 25% of the NAO variance. (orig.)

  7. Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

    2017-10-01

    Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

  8. Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

    2017-01-01

    Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

  9. How accurate are the weather forecasts for Bierun (southern Poland)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawor, J.

    2012-04-01

    Weather forecast accuracy has increased in recent times mainly thanks to significant development of numerical weather prediction models. Despite the improvements, the forecasts should be verified to control their quality. The evaluation of forecast accuracy can also be an interesting learning activity for students. It joins natural curiosity about everyday weather and scientific process skills: problem solving, database technologies, graph construction and graphical analysis. The examination of the weather forecasts has been taken by a group of 14-year-old students from Bierun (southern Poland). They participate in the GLOBE program to develop inquiry-based investigations of the local environment. For the atmospheric research the automatic weather station is used. The observed data were compared with corresponding forecasts produced by two numerical weather prediction models, i.e. COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, USA; it runs operationally at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling in Warsaw, Poland and COSMO (The Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) used by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The analysed data included air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind chill and sea level pressure. The prediction periods from 0 to 24 hours (Day 1) and from 24 to 48 hours (Day 2) were considered. The verification statistics that are commonly used in meteorology have been applied: mean error, also known as bias, for continuous data and a 2x2 contingency table to get the hit rate and false alarm ratio for a few precipitation thresholds. The results of the aforementioned activity became an interesting basis for discussion. The most important topics are: 1) to what extent can we rely on the weather forecasts? 2) How accurate are the forecasts for two considered time ranges? 3) Which precipitation threshold is the most predictable? 4) Why

  10. Homotopic mapping solution of an oscillator for the El Niño/La Niña-southern oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xian-Chun, Zhou; Yi-Hua, Lin; Wan-Tao, Lin; Jia-Qi, Mo

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers a class of oscillator for the El Niño/La Niña-southern oscillation (ENSO) model. By using the homotopic mapping method, it obtains approximations of the solution for the ENSO model. (general)

  11. The Child's Tantrum: El Nino. The Origin of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picault, Joel; Hackert, Eric; Busalacchi, Antonio; Murtugudde, Ragu; Lagerloef, Gary

    2000-01-01

    In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.

  12. Waves of El Nino-southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics have occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Niño and influenza pandemic in 2009–2010, however, suggests that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation of influenza pandemics to the peaks and waveforms of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO. ENSO cycles from 1871–2015 which had El Niño phases were windowed from Multivariate El Niño Index. Influenza pandemic peaks were mapped to ENSO monthly time series. ENSO waveforms were compared graphically, and fitted to nonstationary cosinor models. Second order polynomial regression model was fitted to the peak and duration of El Niño. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster of ENSO waveforms was performed. All influenza pandemic peaks mapped to El Niño peaks, with lags of 0–5 months. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics share parameters of oscillation. Nonstationary cosinor models showed that ENSO cycles are complex waves. There was second order polynomial relationship between peak and duration of El Niños, p < 0.0001. ENSO waveforms clustered into four distinct groups. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics of 1889–1900, 1957–1958, and 1968–1969 linked closely. ENSO indices were significantly high from 7–16 months after onset of cycles, p < 0.0001. Surveillance for El Niño events to forecast periods of maximal transmission and survival of influenza A viruses is, therefore, crucial for public health control strategies.

  13. El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

    2009-12-08

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.

  14. Topographic imprint on chemical weathering in deeply weathered soil-mantled landscapes (southern Brazil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacker, Veerle; Schoonejans, Jerome; Ameijeiras-Marino, Yolanda; Opfergelt, Sophie; Minella, Jean

    2017-04-01

    The regolith mantle is defined as the thin layer of unconsolidated material overlaying bedrock that contributes to shape the Earth's surface. The development of the regolith mantle in a landscape is the result of in-situ weathering, atmospheric input and downhill transport of weathering products. Bedrock weathering - the physical and chemical transformations of rock to soil - contributes to the vertical development of the regolith layer through downward propagation of the weathering front. Lateral transport of soil particles, aggregates and solutes by diffusive and concentrated particle and solute fluxes result in lateral redistribution of weathering products over the hillslope. In this study, we aim to expand the empirical basis on long-term soil evolution at the landscape scale through a detailed study of soil weathering in subtropical soils. Spatial variability in chemical mass fluxes and weathering intensity were studied along two toposequences with similar climate, lithology and vegetation but different slope morphology. This allowed us to isolate the topographic imprint on chemical weathering and soil development. The toposequences have convexo-concave slope morphology, and eight regolith profiles were analysed involving the flat upslope, steep midslope and flat toeslope part. Our data show a clear topographic imprint on soil development. Along hillslope, the chemical weathering intensity of the regolith profiles increases with distance from the crest. In contrast to the upslope positions, the soils in the basal concavities develop on in-situ and transported regolith. While the chemical weathering extent on the slope convexities (the upslope profiles) is similar for the steep and gentle toposequence, there is a clear difference in the rate of increase of the chemical weathering extent with distance from the crest. The increase of chemical weathering extent along hillslope is highest for the steep toposequence, suggesting that topography enhances soil particle

  15. The impact of global warming on the Southern Oscillation Index

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott B.; Kociuba, Greg [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne (Australia)

    2011-11-15

    The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - a measure of air pressure difference across the Pacific Ocean, from Tahiti in the south-east to Darwin in the west - is one of the world's most important climatic indices. The SOI is used to track and predict changes in both the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and the Walker Circulation (WC). During El Nino, for example, the WC weakens and the SOI tends to be negative. Climatic variations linked to changes in the WC have a profound influence on climate, ecosystems, agriculture, and societies in many parts of the world. Previous research has shown that (1) the WC and the SOI weakened in recent decades and that (2) the WC in climate models tends to weaken in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we examine changes in the SOI and air pressure across the Pacific in the observations and in numerous WCRP/CMIP3 climate model integrations for both the 20th and 21st centuries. The difference in mean-sea level air pressure (MSLP) between the eastern and western equatorial Pacific tends to weaken during the 21st century, consistent with previous research. Here we show that this primarily arises because of an increase in MSLP in the west Pacific and not a decline in the east. We also show, in stark contrast to expectations, that the SOI actually tends to increase during the 21st century, not decrease. Under global warming MSLP tends to increase at both Darwin and Tahiti, but tends to rise more at Tahiti than at Darwin. Tahiti lies in an extensive region where MSLP tends to rise in response to global warming. So while the SOI is an excellent indicator of interannual variability in both the equatorial MSLP gradient and the WC, it is a highly misleading indicator of long-term equatorial changes linked to global warming. Our results also indicate that the observed decline in the SOI in recent decades has been driven by natural, internally generated variability. The externally forced signal in the

  16. The Southern Oscillation and northern hemisphere temperature variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ropelewski, C.F.; Halpert, M.S.

    1990-01-01

    The Southern Oscillation (SO) is the best defined and understood mode of interannual climate variability. The extreme phases of the SO have been identified with global-scale variations in the atmosphere/ocean circulation system and with the modulation of monsoon precipitation on the global scale. While SO-related precipitation has been the subject of several studies, the magnitude of the SO-related temperature variability on the global scale has not been well documented. In this paper the authors provide an estimate of the SO-related temperature variability in the context of monitoring global warming related to the increase in greenhouse gases. This analysis suggested that traditional time series of hemispheric and global temperature anomalies for the calendar year may confuse interannual temperature variability associated with the SO and perceived climate trend. Analyses based on calendar-year data are likely to split the effects of the SO-related temperature variability over two years. The Northern Hemisphere cold season (october through March) time series may be more appropriate to separate the SO-related effects on the hemispheric temperature from other modes of variability. mean interannual temperature anomaly differences associated with the extremes of the So are estimated to be 0.2 C for the October-to-March season in the Northern Hemisphere. In areas directly linked to the SO, the mean interannual differences amount to over 0.5 C. The So cannot account for all the variability in the hemispheric times series of surface temperature estimates, but the SO signal must be properly accounted for if these time series are to be understood

  17. Weather types and strokes in the Augsburg region (Southern Germany)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Christoph; Ertl, Michael; Giemsa, Esther; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Naumann, Markus; Seubert, Stefanie

    2017-04-01

    Strokes are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide and the main reason for longterm care dependency in Germany. Concerning the economical impact on patients and healthcare systems it is of particular importance to prevent this disease as well as to improve the outcome of the affected persons. Beside the primary well-known risk factors like hypertension, cigarette smoking, physical inactivity and others, also weather seems to have pronounced influence on the occurrence and frequency of strokes. Previous studies most often focused on effects of singular meteorological variables like ambient air temperature, air pressure or humidity. An advanced approach is to link the entire suite of daily weather elements classified to air mass- or weather types to cerebrovascular morbidity or mortality. In a joint pilot study bringing together climatologists, environmental scientists and physicians from the University of Augsburg and the clinical centre Augsburg, we analysed relationships between singular meteorological parameters as well as combined weather effects (e.g. weather types) and strokes in the urban area of Augsburg and the surrounding rural region. A total of 17.501 stroke admissions to Neurological Clinic and Clinical Neurophysiology at Klinikum Augsburg between 2006 and 2015 are classified to either "ischaemic" (16.354) or "haemorrhagic" (1.147) subtype according to etiology (based on the International Classification of Diseases - 10th Revision). Spearman correlations between daily frequencies of ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes and singular atmospheric parameters (T, Tmin, Tmax, air pressure, humidity etc.) measured at the DWD (German weather service) meteorological station at Augsburg Muehlhausen are rather low. However, higher correlations are achieved when considering sub-samples of "homogenous weather conditions" derived from synoptic circulation classifications: e.g. within almost all of 10 types arising from a classification of

  18. Strontium isotopes reveal weathering processes in lateritic covers in southern China with implications for paleogeographic reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiao; Wang, Shijie; Ji, Hongbing; Shi, Zhenhua

    2018-01-01

    The isotope ratios of Sr are useful tracers for studying parent material sources, weathering processes, and biogeochemical cycling. Mineralogical and geochemical investigations of two lateritic weathering covers, in an area close to the Tropic of Cancer (Guangxi Province, southern China), were undertaken to study the regional weathering processes and Sr isotopic sources. We found that weathering and decomposition of Rb- and Sr-bearing minerals change the Sr isotopic composition in weathering products (lateritic soils). Weathering of illite lowered the 87Sr/86Sr ratio whereas dissolving and leaching of carbonate minerals increased the 87Sr/86Sr ratio. An Fe nodular horizon is widely developed on the top of the weathering covers in the studied area and it differs from the lateritic soil horizon in mineral composition, construction, and elemental concentration. Furthermore, both Fe2O3 and P2O5 (concentrations) are negatively correlated with the 87Sr/86Sr ratios, suggesting fixation of apatite by Fe oxides is a controlling factor of the Sr isotopic composition in the Fe nodular horizon. The 87Sr/86Sr and Nb/Sr ratios imply the contents and proportions of Fe nodules and clay are critical in controlling the changes of Sr isotopic composition in the Fe nodular horizon. The two stages of the weathering process of carbonate rocks are revealed by the87Sr/86Sr versus Nb/Sr diagram. The 87Sr/86Sr and Rb/Sr ratios suggest that Sr isotopes in the weathering covers within the studied area are derived mainly from parent rock weathering and that the contributions from allothogenic Sr isotopes are limited. A comparison of Sr isotopic composition signatures in the weathering covers of the studied area and Guizhou Province provided insight into the Sr isotopic source and paleogeographic evolution of southern China. From the Permian to the Triassic, the continental fragment sources of the South China sedimentary basin changed significantly. In the Permian, Southern China presented the

  19. Strontium isotopes reveal weathering processes in lateritic covers in southern China with implications for paleogeographic reconstructions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Wei

    Full Text Available The isotope ratios of Sr are useful tracers for studying parent material sources, weathering processes, and biogeochemical cycling. Mineralogical and geochemical investigations of two lateritic weathering covers, in an area close to the Tropic of Cancer (Guangxi Province, southern China, were undertaken to study the regional weathering processes and Sr isotopic sources. We found that weathering and decomposition of Rb- and Sr-bearing minerals change the Sr isotopic composition in weathering products (lateritic soils. Weathering of illite lowered the 87Sr/86Sr ratio whereas dissolving and leaching of carbonate minerals increased the 87Sr/86Sr ratio. An Fe nodular horizon is widely developed on the top of the weathering covers in the studied area and it differs from the lateritic soil horizon in mineral composition, construction, and elemental concentration. Furthermore, both Fe2O3 and P2O5 (concentrations are negatively correlated with the 87Sr/86Sr ratios, suggesting fixation of apatite by Fe oxides is a controlling factor of the Sr isotopic composition in the Fe nodular horizon. The 87Sr/86Sr and Nb/Sr ratios imply the contents and proportions of Fe nodules and clay are critical in controlling the changes of Sr isotopic composition in the Fe nodular horizon. The two stages of the weathering process of carbonate rocks are revealed by the87Sr/86Sr versus Nb/Sr diagram. The 87Sr/86Sr and Rb/Sr ratios suggest that Sr isotopes in the weathering covers within the studied area are derived mainly from parent rock weathering and that the contributions from allothogenic Sr isotopes are limited. A comparison of Sr isotopic composition signatures in the weathering covers of the studied area and Guizhou Province provided insight into the Sr isotopic source and paleogeographic evolution of southern China. From the Permian to the Triassic, the continental fragment sources of the South China sedimentary basin changed significantly. In the Permian, Southern

  20. Navy Tactical Applications Guide. Volume 7. Southern Hemisphere Weather Analysis and Forecast Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-10-01

    stationary states in the Southern limited use of persistence forecasting on a day-to-day Hemisphere. Mon, Wea. Rev., 114, 808-823. I I 729 I- 768 0I L! I I II...southwesterly Republic of South Africa Weather Bureau ( RSA ) surface flowing Agulhas Current. A ship observation at chart (not shown) had disclosed...20 ft. The potential for abnormally steep and high waves is significant in casesThe RSA daily weather bulletin (Fig. 3C- 18a) on the like this one

  1. A 17-year Record of Meteorological Observations Across the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap in Southern Patagonia, Chile, Related to Synoptic Weather Types and Climate Modes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie S. Weidemann

    2018-05-01

    evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation impose intra- and inter-annual precipitation and temperature variations. Positive Antarctic Oscillation phases on average are linked to an intensified westerly airflow and warmer conditions in Southernmost Patagonia. Circulation patterns with high-pressure influence leading to colder and dryer conditions in Southernmost Patagonia are more frequent during negative Antarctic Oscillation phases.

  2. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ward, P.J.; Jongman, B.; Kummu, M.S.; Dettinger, M.D.; Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Winsemius, H.C.

    2014-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts,

  3. The El Niño Southern Oscillation index and wildfire prediction in British Columbia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Zhen; Kooten, van G.C.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the potential to predict monthly wildfires and area burned in British Columbia's interior using El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) and the generalized Pareto (GP) distributions are used, respectively, to account for uncertainty in

  4. Reconstruction of El Niño - Southern oscillation variability during the Holocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donders, T.H.

    2005-01-01

    The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific constitutes the largest source of global climate variability on interannual timescales. Every 2-7 year the El Niño phenomenon causes altered Pacific circulation, leading to widespread droughts and floods. However, the exact mechanisms

  5. Strategic adaptation of nitrogen management for el nino southern oscillation-induced winter wheat system

    Science.gov (United States)

    The rainfall anomaly (RA) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has various unwanted impacts on agricultural system globally. The loss of inorganic nitrogen (N) depending on extreme wet or dry conditions is a major concern. The main objective of this study was to adapt site-specific N ...

  6. The Solar and Southern Oscillation Components in the Satellite Altimetry Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Howard, Daniel; Shaviv, Nir J.; Svensmark, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    altimetry data can be explained as the combined effect of both the solar forcing and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The phase of the solar component can be used to derive the different steric and eustatic contributions. We find that the peak to peak radiative forcing associated with the solar...

  7. A pan-tropical cascade of fire driven by El Niño/Southern Oscillation

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    Chen, Yang; Morton, Douglas C.; Andela, Niels; Van Der Werf, Guido R.; Giglio, Louis; Randerson, James T.

    2017-01-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a pronounced influence on year-to-year variations in climate 1 . The response of fires to this forcing 2 is complex and has not been evaluated systematically across different continents. Here we use satellite data to create a climatology of burned-area and

  8. Historical Weathering Based on Chemical Analyses of Two Spodosols in Southern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melkerud, Per-Arne; Bain, Derek C.; Olsson, Mats T.

    2003-01-01

    Chemical weathering losses were calculated for two conifer stands in relation to ongoing studies on liming effects and ash amendments on chemical status, soil solution chemistry and soil genesis. Weathering losses were based on elemental depletion trends in soil profiles since deglaciation and exposure to the weathering environment. Gradients in total geochemical composition were assumed to reflect alteration over time. Study sites were Horroed and Hassloev in southern Sweden. Both Horroed and Hassloev sites are located on sandy loamy Weichselian till at an altitude of 85 and 190 m a.s.l., respectively. Aliquots from volume determined samples from a number of soil levels were fused with lithium metaborate, dissolved in HNO 3 , and analysed by ICP - AES. Results indicated highest cumulative weathering losses at Hassloev. The weathering losses for the elements are in the following order:Si > Al > K > Na > Ca > MgTotal annual losses for Ca+Mg+K+Na, expressed in mmol c m -2 yr -1 , amounted to c. 28 and 58 at Horroed and Hassloev, respectively. Variations between study sites could not be explained by differences in bulk density, geochemistry or mineralogy. The accumulated weathering losses since deglaciation were larger in the uppermost 15 cm than in deeper B horizons for most elements studied

  9. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on boreal winter rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Sandra; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

    2017-09-01

    Multi-scale interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Boreal Winter Monsoon contribute to rainfall variations over Malaysia. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control these spatial variations in local rainfall is crucial for improving weather and climate prediction and related risk management. Analysis using station observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) reanalysis reveals a significant decrease in rainfall during El Niño (EL) and corresponding increase during La Niña particularly north of 2°N over Peninsular Malaysia (PM). It is noted that the southern tip of PM shows a small increase in rainfall during El Niño although not significant. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and winds indicates that there are no significant changes in morning and evening rainfall over PM that could explain the north-south disparity. Thus, we suggest that the key factor which might explain the north-south rainfall disparity is the moisture flux convergence (MFC). During the December to January (DJF) period of EL years, except for the southern tip of PM, significant negative MFC causes drying as well as suppression of uplift over most areas. In addition, lower specific humidity combined with moisture flux divergence results in less moisture over PM. Thus, over the areas north of 2°N, less rainfall (less heavy rain days) with smaller diurnal rainfall amplitude explains the negative rainfall anomaly observed during DJF of EL. The same MFC argument might explain the dipolar pattern over other areas such as Borneo if further analysis is performed.

  10. Analysis of Roanoke Region Weather Patterns Under Global Teleconnections

    OpenAIRE

    LaRocque, Eric John

    2006-01-01

    This work attempts to relate global teleconnections, through physical phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to synoptic-scale weather patterns and precipitation in the Roanoke, Virginia region. The first chapter describes the behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by implementing non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chain models on a monthly time series o...

  11. Utilizing TRMM to Analyze Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Patterns During El Nino Southern Oscillations and Their Effects upon Available Fresh Water for South Florida Agricultural Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooley, Clayton; Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake

    2010-01-01

    Water is in high demand for farmers regardless of where you go. Unfortunately, farmers in southern Florida have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. There is an interest by the agricultural community about the effect weather has on usable surface water, however, research into viable weather patterns during La Nina and El Nino has yet to be researched. Using rainfall accumulation data from NASA Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite, this project s purpose was to assess the influence of El Nino and La Nina Oscillations on sea breeze thunderstorm patterns, as well as general rainfall patterns during the summer season in South Florida. Through this research we were able to illustrate the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall accumulation for each oscillation in relation to major agricultural areas. The study period for this project is from 1998, when TRMM was first launched, to 2009. Since sea breezes in Florida typically occur in the months of May through October, these months were chosen to be the months of the study. During this time, there were five periods of El Nino and two periods of La Nina, with a neutral period separating each oscillation. In order to eliminate rainfall from systems other than sea breeze thunderstorms, only days that were conducive to the development of a sea breeze front were selected.

  12. Das El Niño/Southern Oscillation-Phänomen / The El Niño/Southern Oscillation Phenomenon

    OpenAIRE

    Latif, Mojib

    2006-01-01

    Zusammenfassung Das El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Phänomen ist die stärkste kurzfristige natürliche Klimaschwankung auf Zeitskalen von einigen Monaten bis zu mehreren Jahren. Obwohl ENSO seinen Ursprung im äquatorialen Pazifik hat, wirkt es sich dennoch auf das globale Klima aus. ENSO resultiert aus der Wechselwirkung zwischen Ozean und Atmosphäre und ist einige Monate im voraus vorhersagbar. Es besteht die Möglichkeit, dass der anthropogene Klimawandel die ENSO-Statistik...

  13. Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

    2016-01-01

    As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars

  14. Spatial Patterns of Variability in Antarctic Surface Temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Ron; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.

  15. Assessment of marine weather forecasts over the Indian sector of Southern Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gera, Anitha; Mahapatra, D. K.; Sharma, Kuldeep; Prakash, Satya; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Anilkumar, N.

    2017-09-01

    The Southern Ocean (SO) is one of the important regions where significant processes and feedbacks of the Earth's climate take place. Expeditions to the SO provide useful data for improving global weather/climate simulations and understanding many processes. Some of the uncertainties in these weather/climate models arise during the first few days of simulation/forecast and do not grow much further. NCMRWF issued real-time five day weather forecasts of mean sea level pressure, surface winds, winds at 500 hPa & 850 hPa and rainfall, daily to NCAOR to provide guidance for their expedition to Indian sector of SO during the austral summer of 2014-2015. Evaluation of the skill of these forecasts indicates possible error growth in the atmospheric model at shorter time scales. The error growth is assessed using the model analysis/reanalysis, satellite data and observations made during the expedition. The observed variability of sub-seasonal rainfall associated with mid-latitude systems is seen to exhibit eastward propagations and are well reproduced in the model forecasts. All cyclonic disturbances including the sub-polar lows and tropical cyclones that occurred during this period were well captured in the model forecasts. Overall, this model performs reasonably well over the Indian sector of the SO in medium range time scale.

  16. Water Age Responses to Weather Conditions in a Hyper-Eutrophic Channel Reservoir in Southern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Du

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Channel reservoirs have the characteristics of both rivers and lakes, in which hydrodynamic conditions and the factors affecting the eutrophication process are complex and highly affected by weather conditions. Water age at any location in the reservoir is used as an indicator for describing the spatial and temporal variations of water exchange and nutrient transport. The hyper-eutrophic Changtan Reservoir (CTR in Southern China was investigated. Three weather conditions including wet, normal, and dry years were considered for assessing the response of water age by using the coupled watershed model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model Environmental Fluid Hydrodynamic Code (EFDC. The results showed that the water age in CTR varied tremendously under different weather conditions. The averaged water ages at the downstream of CTR were 3 d, 60 d, and 110 d, respectively in the three typical wet, normal, and dry years. The highest water ages at the main tributary were >70 d, >100 d, and >200 d, respectively. The spatial distribution of water ages in the tributaries and the reservoir were mainly affected by precipitation. This paper provides useful information on water exchange and transport pathways in channel reservoir, which will be helpful in understanding nutrient dynamics for controlling algal blooms.

  17. Influence of southern oscillation on autumn rainfall in Iran (1951-2011)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roghani, Rabbaneh; Soltani, Saeid; Bashari, Hossein

    2016-04-01

    This study aimed to investigate the relationships between southern oscillation and autumn (October-December) rainfall in Iran. It also sought to identify the possible physical mechanisms involved in the mentioned relationships by analyzing observational atmospheric data. Analyses were based on monthly rainfall data from 50 synoptic stations with at least 35 years of records up to the end of 2011. Autumn rainfall time series were grouped by the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and SOI phase methods. Significant differences between rainfall groups in each method were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis and Kolmogorov-Smirnov non-parametric tests. Their relationships were also validated using the linear error in probability space (LEPS) test. The results showed that average SOI and SOI phases during July-September were related with autumn rainfall in some regions located in the west and northwest of Iran, west coasts of the Caspian Sea and southern Alborz Mountains. The El Niño (negative) and La Niña (positive) phases were associated with increased and decreased autumn rainfall, respectively. Our findings also demonstrated the persistence of Southern Pacific Ocean's pressure signals on autumn rainfall in Iran. Geopotential height patterns were totally different in the selected El Niño and La Niña years over Iran. During the El Niño years, a cyclone was formed over the north of Iran and an anticyclone existed over the Mediterranean Sea. During La Niña years, the cyclone shifted towards the Mediterranean Sea and an anticyclone developed over Iran. While these El Niño conditions increased autumn rainfall in Iran, the opposite conditions during the La Niña phase decreased rainfall in the country. In conclusion, development of rainfall prediction models based on the SOI can facilitate agricultural and water resources management in Iran.

  18. Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; Short, Andrew D.; Harley, Mitchell D.; Splinter, Kristen D.; Vitousek, Sean; Turner, Ian L.; Allan, Jonathan; Banno, Masayuki; Bryan, Karin R.; Doria, André; Hansen, Jeff E.; Kato, Shigeru; Kuriyama, Yoshiaki; Randall-Goodwin, Evan; Ruggiero, Peter; Walker, Ian J.; Heathfield, Derek K.

    2015-01-01

    To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.

  19. Leading El-Niño SST Oscillations around the Southern South American Continent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Chen Hsu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The inter-annual variations in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs of the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean have been widely investigated, largely due to their importance in achieving the sustainable development of marine ecosystems under a changing climate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is a widely recognized variability. In the subpolar region in the southern hemisphere, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC is one of the main sources of the Peru Current. A change in the SST in the Southern Ocean may change the physical properties of the seawater in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean. However, the variations in the SST in the Southern Ocean have rarely been addressed. This study uses a 147-year (1870–2016 dataset from the Met Office Hadley Centre to show that the SST anomalies (SSTAs in the oceans west and east of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula have strong positive (R = 0.56 and negative (R = −0.67 correlations with the Niño 3.4 SSTA, respectively. Such correlations are likely related to the changes in circulations of the ACC. We further show that, statistically, the temporal variations in the SSTAs of the ACC lead the Niño 3.4 SSTA by four to six months. Such findings imply that change in the strength of ENSO or circulation under the changing climate could change the climate in regions at higher latitudes as well.

  20. Influence of weather variables and plant communities on grasshopper density in the Southern Pampas, Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Wysiecki, María Laura; Arturi, Marcelo; Torrusio, Sandra; Cigliano, María Marta

    2011-01-01

    A study was conducted to evaluate the influence of weather (precipitation and temperature) and plant communities on grasshopper density over a 14-year period (1996-2009) in Benito Juárez County, Southern Pampas, Argentina. Total density strongly varied among plant communities. Highest values were registered in 2001 and 2003 in highly disturbed pastures and in 2002 and 2009 in halophilous grasslands. Native grasslands had the lowest density values. Seasonal precipitation and temperature had no significant effect on total grasshopper density. Dichroplus elongatus (Giglio-Tos) (Orthoptera: Acridoidea), Covasacris pallidinota (Bruner), Dichroplus pratensis Bruner, Scotussa lemniscata Stål, Borellia bruneri (Rehn) and Dichroplus maculipennis (Blanchard) comprised, on average, 64% of the grasshopper assemblages during low density years and 79% during high density years. Dichroplus elongatus, S. lemniscata and C. pallidinota were the most abundant species in 2001, 2002 and 2003, while D. elongatus, B. brunneri and C. pallidinota in 2009. Dichroplus elongatus and D. pratensis, mixed feeders species, were positively affected by summer rainfall. This suggests that the increase in summer precipitation had a positive effect on the quantity and quality forage production, affecting these grasshopper populations. Scotussa lemniscata and C. pallidinota were negatively affected by winter and fall temperature, possibly affecting the embryonic development before diapause and hatching. Dichroplus elongatus and D. pratensis were associated with highly disturbed pastures, S. lemniscata with pastures and B. bruneri and D. maculipennis with halophilous grasslands. Covasacris pallidinota was closely associated with halophilous grasslands and moderately disturbed pastures. Weather conditions changed over the years, with 2001, 2002 and 2003 having excessive rainfall while 2008 and 2009 were the driest years since the study started. We suggest that although seasonal precipitation and

  1. Bifurcation analysis of delay-induced resonances of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauskopf, Bernd; Sieber, Jan

    2014-09-08

    Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature considerable delay times, usually due to the time it takes to transport energy (for example, in the form of hot/cold air or water) around the globe. In this paper, we demonstrate how one can perform a bifurcation analysis of the behaviour of a periodically forced system with delay in dependence on key parameters. As an example, we consider the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a sea-surface temperature (SST) oscillation on a multi-year scale in the basin of the Pacific Ocean. One can think of ENSO as being generated by an interplay between two feedback effects, one positive and one negative, which act only after some delay that is determined by the speed of transport of SST anomalies across the Pacific. We perform here a case study of a simple delayed-feedback oscillator model for ENSO, which is parametrically forced by annual variation. More specifically, we use numerical bifurcation analysis tools to explore directly regions of delay-induced resonances and other stability boundaries in this delay-differential equation model for ENSO.

  2. Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

  3. Synoptic aspects of the central Chile rainfall variability associated with the southern oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutllant, J.; Fuenzalida, H.

    1988-07-01

    Central Chile winter rainfall patterns show a positive anomaly during the developing stage of warm events associated to the negative phase of the Southern Oscillation. On the other hand, cold events during the positive phase of the Southern Oscillation, correspond quite closely to dry conditions. However, several dry years seem to precede or follow warm events without being necessarily classified as cold events. A synoptic characterization of major winter storms during the development of the most recent warm events in 1972, 1982 and 1987, is presented. Dry winter months during cold-event years are described in terms of average 500 hPa contour anomaly fields. Significant departures from this general behavior, as storms not associated to warm events and extended dry periods during otherwise wet winters, are also analyzed. It is found that major winter storms occurring during the developing phase of warm events are related to hemispheric types of blocking and anomaly patterns where sonal wavenumber 4 and a particular phase of wavenumber 3 dominate. The blockings, located in the Bellingshausen sea area, split the westerly flow diverting the storm tracks towards central Chile. Cold years, often immediately preceding or following a warm event, bring dry conditions in the study area due to a well developed subtropical anticyclonic belt and predominantly sonal westerly flow. Superimposed on these general conditions, anomaly contour patterns in southern South America reveal opposite signs with respect to those associated to warm events. Heavy winter storms not coinciding with warm events show local types of blocking in the Antartic peninsula area, with meridionally or slightly NE-SW oriented troughs and ridges. Extended dry spells and rainfall episodes during warm-event winters seem to be connected with alternating subtropical anomalies moving east with an intraseasonal time scale, superimposed on the aforementioned anomaly pattern at high latitudes. 21 refs, 17 figs, 1 tab

  4. Hand-foot-and-mouth disease and weather factors in Guangzhou, southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, T; Yang, Z; DI, B; Wang, M

    2014-08-01

    Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, we aimed to examine the effect of weather patterns on the incidence of HFMD in the subtropical city of Guangzhou for the period 2009-2012, and assist public health prevention and control measures. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to identify the relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD. During the study period, a total of 166,770 HFMD-confirmed cases were reported, of which 11 died, yielding a fatality rate of 0·66/10,000. Annual incidence rates from 2009 to 2012 were 132·44, 311·40, 402·76, and 468·59/100,000 respectively. Each 1°C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9·38% (95% CI 8·17-10·51) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 6·80% (95% CI -6·99 to -6·65), having an opposite effect. Similarly, a 1% rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 0·67% or 0·51%, a 1 m/h rise in wind velocity corresponded to an increase of 4·01% or 2·65%, and a 1 day addition in the number of windy days corresponded to an increase of 24·73% or 25·87%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. Our findings revealed that the epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on occurrence and transmission of HFMD.

  5. An idealized study of the impact of extratropical climate change on El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Qiong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Science, Beijing (China); Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, Beijing (China); Zhong, Yafang [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States); Wang, Dongxiao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Laboratory of Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics, Guangzhou (China); South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou (China)

    2005-12-01

    Extratropical impacts on the tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are studied in a coupled climate model. Idealized experiments show that the remote impact of the extratropics on the equatorial thermocline through oceanic tunnel can substantially modulate the ENSO in both magnitude and frequency. First of all, an extratropical warming can be conveyed to the equator by the mean subduction current, resulting in a warming of the equatorial thermocline. Second, the extratropical warming can weaken the Hadley cells, which in turn slow down the mean shallow meridional overturning circulations in the upper Pacific, reducing the equatorward cold water supply and the equatorial upwelling. These oceanic dynamic processes would weaken the stratification of the equatorial thermocline and retard a buildup (purge) of excess heat content along the equator, and finally result in a weaker and longer ENSO cycle. This study highlights a nonlocal mechanism in which ENSO behavior is related to the extratropical climate conditions. (orig.)

  6. Correlations between El Niño Southern Oscillation and changes in Nearctic-Neotropic migrant condition in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.D. Wolfe; C.J. Ralph

    2009-01-01

    Climatic changes induced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) commonly influence biological systems; however, climatic variability and multitrophic interactions within tropical latitudes remain poorly understood. We examined relationships between migrant condition and ENSO during spring migration in Costa Rica. Our study is based on correlating an ENSO index with...

  7. Isotope evidence of paleo - El Nino - Southern Oscillation cycles in loess-paleosol record in the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongfang; Follmer, L.R.; Chao-li, Liu

    2000-01-01

    The ??13C of soil carbonate in rhizoconcretions collected from a loess-paleosol sequence in the central United States indicates that growing-season C3/C4 plant ratio oscillated by 35% on a 900 ?? 200 yr time scale during the late Wisconsinan glaciation. The pattern appears in phase with advance and retreat of the southern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet, suggesting influence by paleo-El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation cycles. The ??13C of soil organic matter indicates that the annual average C3/C4 plant ratio oscillated only by 18%, with a periodicity of 450 ?? 100 yr, and closely matched the cyclic pattern of loess-paleosol layers. It suggests a periodic enhancement of the penetration of the Gulf of Mexico air over the region during this time.

  8. A pan-tropical cascade of fire driven by El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yang; Morton, Douglas C.; Andela, Niels; van der Werf, Guido R.; Giglio, Louis; Randerson, James T.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a pronounced influence on year-to-year variations in climate1. The response of fires to this forcing2 is complex and has not been evaluated systematically across different continents. Here we use satellite data to create a climatology of burned-area and fire-emissions responses, drawing on six El Niño and six La Niña events during 1997-2016. On average, reductions in precipitation and terrestrial water storage increased fire emissions in pan-tropical forests by 133% during and following El Niño as compared with La Niña. Fires peaked in equatorial Asia early in the ENSO cycle when El Niño was strengthening (Aug-Oct), before moving to southeast Asia and northern South America (Jan-Apr), Central America (Mar-May) and the southern Amazon (Jul-Oct) during the following year. Large decreases in fire occurred across northern Australia during Sep-Oct of the second year from a reduced fuel availability. Satellite observations of aerosols and carbon monoxide provided independent confirmation of the spatiotemporal evolution of fire anomalies. The predictable cascade of fire across different tropical continents described here highlights an important time delay in the Earth system's response to precipitation redistribution. These observations help to explain why the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 increases during El Niño3 and may contribute to improved seasonal fire forecasts.

  9. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue early warning in Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, A. M.; Lowe, R.

    2012-04-01

    Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is one of the most important emerging tropical diseases. Dengue is hyper-endemic in coastal Ecuador, where all four serotypes co-circulate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate in Ecuador, with positive phase ENSO (El Niño) associated with wetter and warmer conditions over the southern coastal region. In turn, greater rainfall increases the availability of mosquito breeding sites for the dengue mosquito (Aedes aegypti), while warmer temperatures increase rates of larval development, mosquito biting, and viral replication in the mosquito. We report a statistical model for assessing the importance of climate as a driver for inter-annual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Climate variables from a local meteorology station (precipitation, number of rainy days, minimum/maximum/mean air temperature), combined with gridded climate products, and anomalies of Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index, ONI) were used to predict monthly dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMR) (1995-2010). Non-climatic confounding factors such as serotype introduction and vector control effort were also considered. Preliminary results indicated a statistically significant positive association between dengue risk and the number of rainy days during the previous month. Both the number of rainy days and dengue SMR were positively associated with the Pacific SST anomalies with a lead time of several months. Due to time lags involved in the climate-disease transmission system, monitoring El Niño / La Niña evolution in the Pacific Ocean could provide some predictive lead time for forecasting dengue epidemics. This is the first study of dengue fever and climate in this region. This research provides the foundation to develop a climate-driven early warning system for dengue fever in Ecuador.

  10. CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: El Niño Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teleconnections AO NAO PNA AAO Blocking Storm Tracks Climate Glossary Outreach About Us Our Mission Who We Are . P., and A. Kumar, 2000: Understanding and predicting extratropical teleconnections related to ENSO extratropical circulation anomalies during the 1986-1989 ENSO cycle. J. Climate, 6, 595-616. Ropelewski, C. F

  11. Impact of Temperature Anomalies Associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole Events on Wine Grape Maturity in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, C.; Barlow, E.; Darbyshire, R.; Eckard, R.; Goodwin, I.

    2016-12-01

    Annual grapevine growth and development are intimately linked with growing season weather conditions. Shifts in circulation patterns resulting from atmospheric teleconnections to changes in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events can alter seasonal weather across Australia. Both ENSO and IOD events tend to peak in austral spring, when vine and berry development is especially critical and susceptible to damage. To investigate the impacts of ENSO and IOD events on the Australian wine grape growing sector, historical gridded climate data and annual vineyard grape maturity data from a variety of wine growing regions was collected and analysed. The greatest impacts on grape maturity were found when La Niña and IOD positive events occurred in tandem. During these events, significantly dry and hot conditions persist throughout the wine grape growing season, suggesting that the IOD overrides the ENSO signal. These conditions lead to a rapid, compressed growing season, which can cause logistical complications during harvest and impact grape and wine quality. Warming of equatorial SSTs in the Indian Ocean are likely to enhance the amplitude of IOD positive events, which has serious implications for wine grape production in Australia, highlighting the importance of this research.

  12. Role of lichens in weathering of granodiorite in the Sila uplands (Calabria, southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarciglia, Fabio; Saporito, Natalina; La Russa, Mauro F.; Le Pera, Emilia; Macchione, Maria; Puntillo, Domenico; Crisci, Gino M.; Pezzino, Antonino

    2012-12-01

    This paper explores the role of five recurrent epilithic lichen species (Aspicilia intermutans (Nyl.) Arnold, Xanthoparmelia pulla (Ach.) O. Blanco, A. Crespo, Elix, D. Hawksw. & Lumbsch, Rhizocarpon lecanorinum Anders, Tephromela atra (Huds.) Hafellner and Lecanora bolcana (Pollini) Poelt), which encrust granodiorite spheroidal boulders exposed in the Sila uplands (Calabria, southern Italy), in weathering of plutonic rocks in a typical mountainous Mediterranean environment. A detailed investigation was carried out on the lichen-rock interface of each species, by comparing them mutually and with lichen-free granodiorite samples. For this purpose, the lichen species were sampled together with the encrusted rock surface for detailed mineral-petrographic analyses performed in thin and ultra-thin sections. Optical and scanning electron microscopy of these sections and of bulk samples permitted us to highlight the peculiar modes of physical and chemical attacks of lichen thalli and hyphae on and into the substratum for each species. Crack systems often parallel to the outer rock surface appear often intruded by hyphae, which cause rupture of primary minerals, with detachment and progressive incorporation of their fragments into the thallus. In particular, the species L. bolcana and T. atra revealed an unexpected, partly endolithic behavior, presumably enhanced by the presence of rock fractures earlier generated by other physical breakage processes already affecting the spheroidal boulders in the Sila mountains. Dissolution features often affect primary minerals (even quartz), that may show very peculiar patterns which are suggestive of a biologically-induced control. Various phyllosilicate clay minerals were identified using SEM-EDS microprobe analyses and FT-IR spectroscopy, which also enabled the identification of possible amorphous silica (or quartz micrograins), rhizocarpic acid and carotenoid at the encrusted granodiorite interface. In contrast, neither oxalic

  13. Fluoride in weathered rock aquifers of southern India: Managed Aquifer Recharge for mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brindha, K; Jagadeshan, G; Kalpana, L; Elango, L

    2016-05-01

    Climatic condition, geology, and geochemical processes in an area play a major role on groundwater quality. Impact of these on the fluoride content of groundwater was studied in three regions-part of Nalgonda district in Telangana, Pambar River basin, and Vaniyar River basin in Tamil Nadu, southern India, which experience semi-arid climate and are predominantly made of Precambrian rocks. High concentration of fluoride in groundwater above 4 mg/l was recorded. Human exposure dose for fluoride through groundwater was higher in Nalgonda than the other areas. With evaporation and rainfall being one of the major contributors for high fluoride apart from the weathering of fluoride rich minerals from rocks, the effect of increase in groundwater level on fluoride concentration was studied. This study reveals that groundwater in shallow environment of all three regions shows dilution effect due to rainfall recharge. Suitable managed aquifer recharge (MAR) methods can be adopted to dilute the fluoride rich groundwater in such regions which is explained with two case studies. However, in deep groundwater, increase in fluoride concentration with increase in groundwater level due to leaching of fluoride rich salts from the unsaturated zone was observed. Occurrence of fluoride above 1.5 mg/l was more in areas with deeper groundwater environment. Hence, practicing MAR in these regions will increase the fluoride content in groundwater and so physical or chemical treatment has to be adopted. This study brought out the fact that MAR cannot be practiced in all regions for dilution of ions in groundwater and that it is essential to analyze the fluctuation in groundwater level and the fluoride content before suggesting it as a suitable solution. Also, this study emphasizes that long-term monitoring of these factors is an important criterion for choosing the recharge areas.

  14. Interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping

    2000-07-01

    The interaction between tropical Atlantic variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated using three ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model integrations. The integrations are forced by specifying observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability over a forcing domain. The forcing domain is the global ocean for the first ensemble, limited to the tropical ocean for the second ensemble, and further limited to the tropical Atlantic region for the third ensemble. The ensemble integrations show that extratropical SST anomalies have little impact on tropical variability, but the effect of ENSO is pervasive in the Tropics. Consistent with previous studies, the most significant influence of ENSO is found during the boreal spring season and is associated with an anomalous Walker circulation. Two important aspects of ENSO's influence on tropical Atlantic variability are noted. First, the ENSO signal contributes significantly to the `dipole' correlation structure between tropical Atlantic SST and rainfall in the Nordeste Brazil region. In the absence of the ENSO signal, the correlations are dominated by SST variability in the southern tropical Atlantic, resulting in less of a dipole structure. Second, the remote influence of ENSO also contributes to positive correlations between SST anomalies and downward surface heat flux in the tropical Atlantic during the boreal spring season. However, even when ENSO forcing is absent, the model integrations provide evidence for a positive surface heat flux feedback in the deep Tropics, which is analyzed in a companion study by Chang et al. The analysis of model simulations shows that interannual atmospheric variability in the tropical Pacific-Atlantic system is dominated by the interaction between two distinct sources of tropical heating: (i) an equatorial heat source in the eastern Pacific associated with ENSO and (ii) an off-equatorial heat source associated with SST anomalies near the Caribbean

  15. Landscape response to tipping points in granite weathering: The case of stepped topography in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jessup, Barbara S.; Jesse Hahm, W.; Miller, Scott N.; Kirchner, James W.; Riebe, Clifford S.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → This work tests a decades-old hypothesis in which relief development in the southern Sierra Nevada is attributed to differential weathering of bare and soil-mantled granite. → Terrain analysis shows that the landscape is organized into a sequence of steep steps and gentle treads, consistent with the hypothesis. → Cosmogenic nuclides show that bare granite erodes more slowly than its soil-mantled counterparts, as required by the hypothesis.However, steps erode more quickly than treads, undermining the explanation for the origins of the stepped topography. - Abstract: The dynamics of granitic landscapes are modulated by bimodal weathering, which produces patchy granular soils and expanses of bare rock ranging from meter-scale boulders to mountain-scale domes. We used terrain analysis and with cosmogenic nuclide measurements of erosion rates to quantitatively explore Wahrhaftig's decades-old hypothesis for the development of 'stepped topography' by differential weathering of bare and soil-mantled granite. According to Wahrhaftig's hypothesis, bare granite weathers slower than soil-mantled granite; thus random erosional exposure of bare rock leads to an alternating sequence of steep, slowly weathering bedrock 'steps' and gently sloped, but rapidly weathering, soil-mantled 'treads.' Our investigation focused on the terrain surrounding the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (CZO), which is underlain by granitic bedrock and lies outside the limits of recent glaciation, in the heart of the stepped topography described by Wahrhaftig. Our digital terrain analysis confirms that steep steps often grade into gentle treads, consistent with Wahrhaftig's hypothesis. However, we observe a mix-and-match of soil and bare rock on treads and steps, contrary to one of the hypothesis' major underpinnings - that bare rock should be much more common on steps than on treads. Moreover, the data show that bare rock is not as common as expected at step tops

  16. Impact of Madden–Julian Oscillation upon Winter Extreme Rainfall in Southern China: Observations and Predictability in CFSv2

    OpenAIRE

    Hong-Li Ren; Pengfei Ren

    2017-01-01

    The impact of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) upon extreme rainfall in southern China was studied using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and daily precipitation data from high-resolution stations in China. The probability-distribution function (PDF) of November–March rainfall in southern China was found to be skewed toward larger (smaller) values in phases 2–3 (6–7) of MJO, during which the probability of extreme rainfall events increased (reduced) by 30–50% (20–40%) relative to all...

  17. The Southern Oscillation in a coupled GCM: Implications for climate sensitivity and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, G.A.

    1990-01-01

    Results are presented from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The atmospheric part of the coupled model is a global spectral (R15, 4.5 degree latitude by 7.5 degree longitude, 9 layers in the vertical) general circulation model. The ocean is coarse-grid (5 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude, 4 layers in the vertical) global general circulation model. The coupled model includes a simple thermodynamic sea-ice model. Due mainly to inherent limitations in the ocean model, the coupled model simulates sea surface temperatures that are too low in the tropics and too high in the extratropics in the mean. In spite of these limitations, the coupled model simulates active interannual variability of the global climate system involving signals in the tropical Pacific that resemble, in some respects, the observed Southern Oscillation. These signals in the tropics are associated with teleconnections to the extratropics of both hemispheres. The implications of this model-simulated interannual variability of the coupled system relating to climate sensitivity and climate change due to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide are discussed

  18. El Niño-Southern oscillation variability from the late cretaceous marca shale of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Andrew; Kemp, Alan E.S.; Weedon, Graham P.; Barron, John A.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in the possible behavior of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with global warming have provoked interest in records of ENSO from past “greenhouse” climate states. The latest Cretaceous laminated Marca Shale of California permits a seasonal-scale reconstruction of water column flux events and hence interannual paleoclimate variability. The annual flux cycle resembles that of the modern Gulf of California with diatoms characteristic of spring upwelling blooms followed by silt and clay, and is consistent with the existence of a paleo–North American Monsoon that brought input of terrigenous sediment during summer storms and precipitation runoff. Variation is also indicated in the extent of water column oxygenation by differences in lamina preservation. Time series analysis of interannual variability in terrigenous sediment and diatom flux and in the degree of bioturbation indicates strong periodicities in the quasi-biennial (2.1–2.8 yr) and low-frequency (4.1–6.3 yr) bands both characteristic of ENSO forcing, as well as decadal frequencies. This evidence for robust Late Cretaceous ENSO variability does not support the theory of a “permanent El Niño,” in the sense of a continual El Niño–like state, in periods of warmer climate.

  19. El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, M.; Keenlyside, N. S.

    2009-01-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO2, accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

  20. The Southern Oscillation in a coupled GCM: Implications for climate sensitivity and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Results are presented from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The atmospheric part of the coupled model is a global spectral (R15, 4.5 degree latitude by 7.5 degree longitude, 9 layers in the vertical) general circulation model. The ocean is coarse-grid (5 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude, 4 layers in the vertical) global general circulation model. The coupled model includes a simple thermodynamic sea-ice model. Due mainly to inherent limitations in the ocean model, the coupled model simulates sea surface temperatures that are too low in the tropics and too high in the extratropics in the mean. In spite of these limitations, the coupled model simulates active interannual variability of the global climate system involving signals in the tropical Pacific that resemble, in some respects, the observed Southern Oscillation. These signals in the tropics are associated with teleconnections to the extratropics of both hemispheres. The implications of this model-simulated interannual variability of the coupled system relating to climate sensitivity and climate change due to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide are discussed. 25 refs.; 9 figs

  1. Utilization of Solar Dynamics Observatory space weather digital image data for comparative analysis with application to Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekoyan, V.; Dehipawala, S.; Liu, Ernest; Tulsee, Vivek; Armendariz, R.; Tremberger, G.; Holden, T.; Marchese, P.; Cheung, T.

    2012-10-01

    Digital solar image data is available to users with access to standard, mass-market software. Many scientific projects utilize the Flexible Image Transport System (FITS) format, which requires specialized software typically used in astrophysical research. Data in the FITS format includes photometric and spatial calibration information, which may not be useful to researchers working with self-calibrated, comparative approaches. This project examines the advantages of using mass-market software with readily downloadable image data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory for comparative analysis over with the use of specialized software capable of reading data in the FITS format. Comparative analyses of brightness statistics that describe the solar disk in the study of magnetic energy using algorithms included in mass-market software have been shown to give results similar to analyses using FITS data. The entanglement of magnetic energy associated with solar eruptions, as well as the development of such eruptions, has been characterized successfully using mass-market software. The proposed algorithm would help to establish a publicly accessible, computing network that could assist in exploratory studies of all FITS data. The advances in computer, cell phone and tablet technology could incorporate such an approach readily for the enhancement of high school and first-year college space weather education on a global scale. Application to ground based data such as that contained in the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey is discussed.

  2. The relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index, rainfall and the occurrence of canine tick paralysis, feline tick paralysis and canine parvovirus in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rika-Heke, Tamara; Kelman, Mark; Ward, Michael P

    2015-07-01

    The aim of this study was to describe the association between climate, weather and the occurrence of canine tick paralysis, feline tick paralysis and canine parvovirus in Australia. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and monthly average rainfall (mm) data were used as indices for climate and weather, respectively. Case data were extracted from a voluntary national companion animal disease surveillance resource. Climate and weather data were obtained from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. During the 4-year study period (January 2010-December 2013), a total of 4742 canine parvovirus cases and 8417 tick paralysis cases were reported. No significant (P ≥ 0.05) correlations were found between the SOI and parvovirus, canine tick paralysis or feline tick paralysis. A significant (P parvovirus occurrence and rainfall in the same month (0.28), and significant negative cross-correlations (-0.26 to -0.36) between parvovirus occurrence and rainfall 4-6 months previously. Significant (P canine tick paralysis occurrence and rainfall 1-3 months previously, and significant positive cross-correlations (0.29-0.47) between canine tick paralysis occurrence and rainfall 7-10 months previously. Significant positive cross-correlations (0.37-0.68) were found between cases of feline tick paralysis and rainfall 6-10 months previously. These findings may offer a useful tool for the management and prevention of tick paralysis and canine parvovirus, by providing an evidence base supporting the recommendations of veterinarians to clients thus reducing the impact of these diseases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (mjo) on Extreme Rainfall Over the Central and Southern Peruvian Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidinger, H.; Jones, C.; Carvalho, L. V.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme rainfall is important for the Andean region because of the large contribution of these events to the seasonal totals and consequent impacts on water resources for agriculture, water consumption, industry and hydropower generation, as well as the occurrence of floods and landslides. Over Central and Southern Peruvian Andes (CSPA), rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile contributed between 44 to 100% to the total Nov-Mar 1979-2010 rainfall. Additionally, precipitation from a large majority of stations in the CSPA exhibits statistically significant spectral peaks on intraseasonal time-scales (20 to 70 days). The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most important intraseasonal mode of atmospheric circulation and moist convection in the tropics and the occurrence of extreme weather events worldwide. Mechanisms explaining the relationships between the MJO and precipitation in the Peruvian Andes have not been properly described yet. The present study examines the relationships between the activity and phases of the MJO and the occurrence of extreme rainfall over the CSPA. We found that the frequency of extreme rainfall events increase in the CSPA when the MJO is active. MJO phases 5, 6 and 7 contribute to the overall occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the CSPA. However, how the MJO phases modulate extreme rainfall depends on the location of the stations. For instance, extreme precipitation (above the 90th percentile) in stations in the Amazon basin are slightly more sensitive to phases 2, 3 and 4; the frequency of extremes in stations in the Pacific basin increases in phases 5, 6 and 7 whereas phase 2, 3 and 7 modulates extreme precipitation in stations in the Titicaca basin. Greater variability among stations is observed when using the 95th and 99th percentiles to identify extremes. Among the main mechanisms that explain the increase in extreme rainfall events in the Peruvian Andes is the intensification of the easterly moisture flux anomalies, which

  4. An oscillating microbalance for meteorological measurements of ice and volcanic ash accumulation from a weather balloon platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airey, Martin; Harrison, Giles; Nicoll, Keri; Williams, Paul; Marlton, Graeme

    2017-04-01

    A new, low cost, instrument has been developed for meteorological measurements of the accumulation of ice and volcanic ash that can be readily deployed using commercial radiosondes and weather balloons. It is based on principles used by [1], an instrument originally developed to measure supercooled liquid water profiles in clouds. This new instrument introduces numerous improvements in terms of reduced complexity and cost. It uses the oscillating microbalance principle, whereby a wire vibrating at its natural frequency is subjected to increased loading of the property to be measured. The increase in mass modifies the wire properties such that its natural frequency of oscillation changes. By measuring this frequency, the increase in mass can be inferred and transmitted to a ground base station through the radiosonde's UHF antenna via the PANDORA interface [2], which has been previously developed to provide power and connection to the radiosonde telemetry. The device consists of a simple circuit board controlled by an ATMEGA microcontroller. For calibration, the controller is capable of driving the wire at specified frequencies via excitation by a piezo sounder upon which the wire is mounted. The same piezo sounder is also used during active operation to measure the frequency of the wire in its non-driven state in order to infer the mass change on the wire. A phase-locked loop implemented on the board identifies when resonance occurs and the measured frequency is stable, prompting the microcontroller to send the measurement through the data interface. The device may be used for any application that requires the measurement of incremental mass variation e.g. ice accumulation, frosting, or particle accumulation such as dust and volcanic ash. For the solid particle accumulation, a low temperature, high-tack, adhesive may be applied to the wire prior to deployment to collect the material. In addition, the same instrument may be used for ground-based applications, such as

  5. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, B; Kummu, M.; Dettinger, Mike; Sperna Weiland, F.C; Winsemius, H.C

    2014-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

  6. How are streamflow responses to the El Nino Southern Oscillation affected by watershed characteristics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.

    2017-05-01

    Understanding the factors that influence how global climate phenomena, such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), affect streamflow behavior is an important area of research in the hydrologic sciences. While large-scale patterns in ENSO-streamflow relationships have been thoroughly studied, and are relatively well-understood, information is scarce concerning factors that affect variation in ENSO responses from one watershed to another. To this end, we examined relationships between variability in ENSO activity and streamflow for 2731 watersheds across the conterminous U.S. from 1970 to 2014 using a novel approach to account for the intermediary role of precipitation. We applied an ensemble of regression techniques to describe relationships between variability in ENSO activity and streamflow as a function of watershed characteristics including: hydroclimate, topography, geomorphology, geographic location, land cover, soil characteristics, bedrock geology, and anthropogenic influences. We found that variability in watershed scale ENSO-streamflow relationships was strongly related to factors including: precipitation timing and phase, forest cover, and interactions between watershed topography and geomorphology. These, and other influential factors, share in common the ability to affect the partitioning and movement of water within watersheds. Our results demonstrate that the conceptualization of watersheds as signal filters for hydroclimate inputs, commonly applied to short-term rainfall-runoff responses, also applies to long-term hydrologic responses to sources of recurrent climate variability. These results also show that watershed processes, which are typically studied at relatively fine spatial scales, are also critical for understanding continental scale hydrologic responses to global climate.

  7. Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global hydropower production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Jia Yi; Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    Hydropower contributes significantly to meeting the world's energy demand, accounting for at least 16% of total electrical output. Its role as a mature and cost competitive renewable energy source is expected to become increasingly important as the world transits to a low-carbon economy. A key component of hydropower production is runoff, which is highly dependent on precipitation and other climate variables. As such, it becomes critical to understand how the drivers of climate variability impact hydropower production. One globally-important driver is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While it is known that ENSO influences hydrological processes, the potential value of its associated teleconnection in design related tasks has yet to be explored at the global scale. Our work seeks to characterize the impact of ENSO on global hydropower production so as to quantify the potential for increased production brought about by incorporating climate information within reservoir operating models. We study over 1,500 hydropower reservoirs - representing more than half the world's hydropower capacity. A historical monthly reservoir inflow time series is assigned to each reservoir from a 0.5 degree gridded global runoff dataset. Reservoir operating rules are designed using stochastic dynamic programming, and storage dynamics are simulated to assess performance under the climate conditions of the 20th century. Results show that hydropower reservoirs in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and Eastern China are strongly influenced by ENSO episodes. Statistically significant lag correlations between ENSO indicators and hydropower production demonstrate predictive skill with lead times up to several months. Our work highlights the potential for using these indicators to increase the contribution of existing hydropower plants to global energy supplies.

  8. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael D.; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Winsemius, Hessel C.

    2014-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions. PMID:25331867

  9. Detection of the fast Kelvin wave teleconnection due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, Steven D.; Melsom, Arne; Mitchum, Gary T.; O'Brien, James J.

    1998-11-01

    Previous analyses of the ocean state along the western American coast have often indicated unexpectedly slow and limited propagation of coastally trapped Kelvin waves associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In contrast, theoretical and numerical ocean models demonstrate that these Kelvin waves are a rapid and long-range teleconnection between the low- and high-latitude Pacific Ocean, strongly impacting both the surface coastal currents and nutrient upwelling. Sea level variations along the western coast of North America are reexamined under the assumption that tropically forced Kelvin waves are produced in bursts of several months duration. A cross-correlation analysis, restricted to mid-1982 to mid-1983, is performed between Galapagos Island and stations along western Central and North America. A coastally trapped Kelvin wave is revealed to propagate at a speed of 2-3 m s-1 from the tropical Pacific to the Aleutian Island Chain. The observed phase speed agrees with the estimated speed of a Kelvin wave based on the average density profile of the ocean near the coast. Weaker El Niño events in 1986/1987 and 1991/1992 appear to contain a combination of this remote signal and local wind forcing. The wave propagation speed calculated from the spectral phase is shown to be sensitive to the presence of other (noise) processes in the observations. This is demonstrated through an analysis of a synthetic sea level data set that contains many of the essential features of the real sea level data. A relatively small level of red noise can give a 100% expected error in the estimated propagation speed. This suggests a new explanation for this important inconsistency within dynamical oceanography.

  10. El Nino Southern Oscillation and vegetation dynamics as predictors of dengue fever cases in Costa Rica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D O; Troyo, A; Beier, J C

    2009-01-01

    Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are growing health concerns throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. This study focuses on Costa Rica, which experienced over 100 000 cases of DF/DHF from 2003 to 2007. We utilized data on sea-surface temperature anomalies related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and two vegetation indices derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) from the Terra satellite to model the influence of climate and vegetation dynamics on DF/DHF cases in Costa Rica. Cross-correlations were calculated to evaluate both positive and negative lag effects on the relationships between independent variables and DF/DHF cases. The model, which utilizes a sinusoid and non-linear least squares to fit case data, was able to explain 83% of the variance in weekly DF/DHF cases when independent variables were shifted backwards in time. When the independent variables were shifted forward in time, consistently with a forecasting approach, the model explained 64% of the variance. Importantly, when five ENSO and two vegetation indices were included, the model reproduced a major DF/DHF epidemic of 2005. The unexplained variance in the model may be due to herd immunity and vector control measures, although information regarding these aspects of the disease system are generally lacking. Our analysis suggests that the model may be used to predict DF/DHF outbreaks as early as 40 weeks in advance and may also provide valuable information on the magnitude of future epidemics. In its current form it may be used to inform national vector control programs and policies regarding control measures; it is the first climate-based dengue model developed for this country and is potentially scalable to the broader region of Latin America and the Caribbean where dramatic increases in DF/DHF incidence and spread have been observed.

  11. El Nino Southern Oscillation and vegetation dynamics as predictors of dengue fever cases in Costa Rica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuller, D O [Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-2221 (United States); Troyo, A [Centro de Investigacion en Enfermedades Tropicales, Departamento de ParasitologIa, Facultad de MicrobiologIa, Universidad de Costa Rica, San Jose (Costa Rica); Beier, J C [Global Public Health Program, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Miami, Miami, FL (United States)], E-mail: dofuller@miami.edu

    2009-01-15

    Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are growing health concerns throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. This study focuses on Costa Rica, which experienced over 100 000 cases of DF/DHF from 2003 to 2007. We utilized data on sea-surface temperature anomalies related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and two vegetation indices derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) from the Terra satellite to model the influence of climate and vegetation dynamics on DF/DHF cases in Costa Rica. Cross-correlations were calculated to evaluate both positive and negative lag effects on the relationships between independent variables and DF/DHF cases. The model, which utilizes a sinusoid and non-linear least squares to fit case data, was able to explain 83% of the variance in weekly DF/DHF cases when independent variables were shifted backwards in time. When the independent variables were shifted forward in time, consistently with a forecasting approach, the model explained 64% of the variance. Importantly, when five ENSO and two vegetation indices were included, the model reproduced a major DF/DHF epidemic of 2005. The unexplained variance in the model may be due to herd immunity and vector control measures, although information regarding these aspects of the disease system are generally lacking. Our analysis suggests that the model may be used to predict DF/DHF outbreaks as early as 40 weeks in advance and may also provide valuable information on the magnitude of future epidemics. In its current form it may be used to inform national vector control programs and policies regarding control measures; it is the first climate-based dengue model developed for this country and is potentially scalable to the broader region of Latin America and the Caribbean where dramatic increases in DF/DHF incidence and spread have been observed.

  12. Decadal variability of drought conditions over the southern part of Europe based on Principal Oscillation Pattern Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Scholz, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    This study introduces a novel method of estimating the decay time, mean period and forcing statistics of drought conditions over large spatial domains, demonstrated here for southern part of Europe (10°E - 40°E, 35°N - 50°N). It uses a two-dimensional stochastically forced damped linear oscillator model with the model parameters estimated from a Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis and associated observed power spectra. POP is a diagnostic technique that aims to derive the space-time characteristics of a data set objectively. This analysis is performed on an extended observational time series of 114 years (1902 - 2015) of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for an accumulation period of 12 months (SPEI12), based on the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS v. 3.24) data set. The POP analysis reveals four exceptionally stable modes of variability, which together explain more than 62% of the total explained variance. The most stable POP mode, which explains 16.3% of the total explained variance, is characterized by a period of oscillation of 14 years and a decay time of 31 years. The real part of POP1 is characterized by a monopole-like structure with the highest loadings over Portugal, western part of Spain and Turkey. The second stable mode, which explains 15.9% of the total explained variance, is characterized by a period of oscillation of 20 years and a decay time of 26.4 years. The spatial structure of the real part of POP2 has a dipole-like structure with the highest positive loadings over France, southern Germany and Romania and negative loadings over southern part of Spain. The third POP mode, in terms of stability, explains 14.0% of the total variance and is characterized by a period of oscillation of 33 years and a decay time of 43.5 years. The real part of POP3 is characterized by negative loadings over the eastern part of Europe and positive loadings over Turkey. The fourth stable POP mode, explaining 15.5% of the total variance

  13. Examining the controlling factors on Southern Ocean clouds and their radiative effects in the context of midlatitude weather systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelleher, M. K.; Grise, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    Clouds and their associated radiative effects are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the present generation of global climate models. One region where model biases are especially large is over the Southern Ocean, where many models systematically underestimate the climatological shortwave cloud radiative effects (CRE) and/or misrepresent the relationship between shortwave CRE and atmospheric dynamics. Previous research has shown that two "cloud controlling factors", estimated inversion strength (EIS) and mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, are helpful in explaining the relationship between CRE and atmospheric dynamics on monthly timescales. For example, when the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet shifts poleward on monthly timescales, the high clouds and their associated longwave CRE shift poleward with the jet, consistent with a poleward shift of the storm track and the attendant vertical velocity anomalies. However, the observed changes in shortwave CRE with a poleward jet shift are small due to a trade-off between the competing effects of opposing EIS and vertical velocity anomalies. This study extends these previous findings to examine the relationship between Southern Ocean cloud controlling factors and CRE on daily timescales. On a daily timescale, the relationship of EIS and vertical velocity with CRE is more complex, due in part to the presence of transient weather systems. Composites of EIS, vertical velocity, longwave CRE, and shortwave CRE around extratropical cyclones and anticyclones are constructed to examine how the CRE anomalies vary in different sectors of midlatitude weather systems and the role that EIS and vertical velocity play in determining those anomalies. The relationships between the cloud controlling factors and CRE on daily timescales provide key insight into the underlying physical processes responsible for the relationships between midlatitude cloud controlling factors and CRE previously documented on monthly timescales.

  14. Landscape response to tipping points in granite weathering: The case of stepped topography in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jessup, Barbara S.; Jesse Hahm, W. [Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 (United States); Miller, Scott N. [Department of Renewable Resources, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 (United States); Kirchner, James W. [Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zuercherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf (Switzerland)] [Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Riebe, Clifford S., E-mail: criebe@uwyo.edu [Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 (United States)

    2011-06-15

    Highlights: > This work tests a decades-old hypothesis in which relief development in the southern Sierra Nevada is attributed to differential weathering of bare and soil-mantled granite. > Terrain analysis shows that the landscape is organized into a sequence of steep steps and gentle treads, consistent with the hypothesis. > Cosmogenic nuclides show that bare granite erodes more slowly than its soil-mantled counterparts, as required by the hypothesis.However, steps erode more quickly than treads, undermining the explanation for the origins of the stepped topography. - Abstract: The dynamics of granitic landscapes are modulated by bimodal weathering, which produces patchy granular soils and expanses of bare rock ranging from meter-scale boulders to mountain-scale domes. We used terrain analysis and with cosmogenic nuclide measurements of erosion rates to quantitatively explore Wahrhaftig's decades-old hypothesis for the development of 'stepped topography' by differential weathering of bare and soil-mantled granite. According to Wahrhaftig's hypothesis, bare granite weathers slower than soil-mantled granite; thus random erosional exposure of bare rock leads to an alternating sequence of steep, slowly weathering bedrock 'steps' and gently sloped, but rapidly weathering, soil-mantled 'treads.' Our investigation focused on the terrain surrounding the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (CZO), which is underlain by granitic bedrock and lies outside the limits of recent glaciation, in the heart of the stepped topography described by Wahrhaftig. Our digital terrain analysis confirms that steep steps often grade into gentle treads, consistent with Wahrhaftig's hypothesis. However, we observe a mix-and-match of soil and bare rock on treads and steps, contrary to one of the hypothesis' major underpinnings - that bare rock should be much more common on steps than on treads. Moreover, the data show that bare rock is not

  15. Extreme weather events in southern Germany - Climatological risk and development of a large-scale identification procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthies, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Rohlfing, G.; Ulbrich, U.

    2009-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain or snowfall can pose a threat to human life and to considerable tangible assets. Yet there is a lack of knowledge about present day climatological risk and its economic effects, and its changes due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Therefore, parts of economy particularly sensitve to extreme weather events such as insurance companies and airports require regional risk-analyses, early warning and prediction systems to cope with such events. Such an attempt is made for southern Germany, in close cooperation with stakeholders. Comparing ERA40 and station data with impact records of Munich Re and Munich Airport, the 90th percentile was found to be a suitable threshold for extreme impact relevant precipitation events. Different methods for the classification of causing synoptic situations have been tested on ERA40 reanalyses. An objective scheme for the classification of Lamb's circulation weather types (CWT's) has proved to be most suitable for correct classification of the large-scale flow conditions. Certain CWT's have been turned out to be prone to heavy precipitation or on the other side to have a very low risk of such events. Other large-scale parameters are tested in connection with CWT's to find out a combination that has the highest skill to identify extreme precipitation events in climate model data (ECHAM5 and CLM). For example vorticity advection in 700 hPa shows good results, but assumes knowledge of regional orographic particularities. Therefore ongoing work is focused on additional testing of parameters that indicate deviations of a basic state of the atmosphere like the Eady Growth Rate or the newly developed Dynamic State Index. Evaluation results will be used to estimate the skill of the regional climate model CLM concerning the simulation of frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events. Data of the A1B scenario (2000-2050) will be examined for a possible climate change

  16. Long term changes in flooding and heavy rainfall associated with North Atlantic tropical cyclones: Roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryal, Yog N.; Villarini, Gabriele; Zhang, Wei; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

    2018-04-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the contribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to flooding and heavy rainfall across the continental United States. Analyses highlight the spatial variability in these hazards, their temporal changes in terms of frequency and magnitude, and their connection to large-scale climate, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use long-term stream and rain gage measurements, and our analyses are based on annual maxima (AMs) and peaks-over-threshold (POTs). TCs contribute to ∼20-30% of AMs and POTs over Florida and coastal areas of the eastern United States, and the contribution decreases as we move inland. We do not detect statistically significant trends in the magnitude or frequency of TC floods. Regarding the role of climate, NAO and ENSO do not play a large role in controlling the frequency and magnitude of TC flooding. The connection between heavy rainfall and TCs is comparable to what observed in terms of flooding. Unlike flooding, NAO plays a significant role in TC-related extreme rainfall along the U.S. East Coast, while ENSO is most strongly linked to the TC precipitation in Texas.

  17. El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect on quasi-biennial oscillations of temperature diurnal tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yang-Yi; Liu, Huixin; Miyoshi, Yasunobu; Liu, Libo; Chang, Loren C.

    2018-05-01

    In this study, we evaluate the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals in the two dominant temperature diurnal tides, diurnal westward wavenumber 1 (DW1) and diurnal eastward wavenumber 3 (DE3) on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) scale (18-34 months) from 50 to 100 km altitudes. The tides are derived from the 21-year (January 1996-February 2017) Ground-to-Topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA) temperature simulations and 15-year (February 2002-February 2017) Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED)/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature observations. The results show that ENSO warm phases shorten the period ( 2 years) of the QBO in DW1 amplitude near the equator and DE3 amplitude at low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. In contrast, the QBO period lengthens ( 2.5 years) during the ENSO neutral and cold phases. Correlation analysis shows the long-lasting effect of ENSO on the tidal QBO in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  18. Impact of Madden–Julian Oscillation upon Winter Extreme Rainfall in Southern China: Observations and Predictability in CFSv2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Li Ren

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO upon extreme rainfall in southern China was studied using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM index and daily precipitation data from high-resolution stations in China. The probability-distribution function (PDF of November–March rainfall in southern China was found to be skewed toward larger (smaller values in phases 2–3 (6–7 of MJO, during which the probability of extreme rainfall events increased (reduced by 30–50% (20–40% relative to all days in the same season. Physical analysis indicated that the favorable conditions for generating extreme rainfall are associated with southwesterly moisture convergence and vertical moisture advection over southern China, while the direct contributions from horizontal moisture advection are insignificant. Based on the above results, the model-based predictability for extreme rainfall in winter was examined using hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2 of NOAA. It is shown that the modulations of MJO on extreme rainfall are captured and forecasted well by CFSv2, despite the existence of a relatively small bias. This study suggests the feasibility of deriving probabilistic forecasts of extreme rainfall in southern China based on RMM indices.

  19. Florida Agriculture - Utilizing TRMM to Analyze Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Patterns During El Nino Southern Oscillations and Their Effects Upon Available Fresh Water for South Florida Agricultural Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake; Cooley, Zachary Clayton; Mitchell, Brandie

    2010-01-01

    This project utilizes Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Landsat satellite data to assess the impact of sea breeze precipitation upon areas of agricultural land use in southern Florida. Water is a critical resource to agriculture, and the availability of water for agricultural use in Florida continues to remain a key issue. Recent projections of statewide water use by 2020 estimate that 9.3 billion gallons of water per day will be demanded, and agriculture represents 47% of this demand (Bronson 2003). Farmers have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. Sea breeze thunderstorms are responsible for much of the rainfall delivered to Florida during the wet season (May-October) and have been recognized as an important overall contributor of rainfall in southern Florida (Almeida 2003). TRMM satellite data was used to analyze how sea breeze-induced thunderstorms during El Nino and La Nina affected interannual patterns of precipitation in southern Florida from 1998-2009. TRMM's Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager provide data to quantify water vapor in the atmosphere, precipitation rates and intensity, and the distribution of precipitation. Rainfall accumulation data derived from TRMM and other microwave sensors were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of rainfall during each phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through the use of TRMM and Landsat, slight variations were observed, but it was determined that neither sea breeze nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida were strongly affected by ENSO during the study period. However, more research is needed to characterize the influence of ENSO on summer weather patterns in South Florida. This research will provide the basis for continued observations and study with the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission.

  20. Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G - II. El Nino Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, Seung-Ki; Hense, Andreas [Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Legutke, Stephanie [Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Kwon, Won-Tae [Meteorological Research Inst., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-08-01

    A 1000-yr control simulation (CTL) performed with the atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHO-G is analysed with regard to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the two major natural climatic variabilities, in comparison with observations and other model simulations. The ENSO-related sea surface temperature climate and its seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific and a single Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern tropical Pacific are simulated reasonably, and the ENSO phase-locking to the annual cycle and the subsurface ocean behaviour related to equatorial wave dynamics are also reproduced well. The simulated amplitude of the ENSO signal is however too large and its occurrence is too regular and frequent. Also, the observed westward propagation of zonal wind stress over the equatorial Pacific is not captured by the model. Nevertheless, the ENSO-related teleconnection patterns of near-surface temperature (T2m), precipitation (PCP) and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are reproduced realistically. The NAO index, defined as the MSLP difference between Gibraltar and Iceland, has a 'white' noise spectrum similar to that of the detrended index obtained from observed data. The correlation and regression patterns of T2m, PCP and MSLP with the NAO index are also successfully simulated. However, the model overestimates the warming over the North Pacific in the high index phase of the NAO, a feature it shares with other coupled models. This might be associated with an enhanced Atlantic/Pacific teleconnection, which is hardly seen in the observations. A detection analysis of the NAO index shows that the observed recent 4060 yr trend cannot be explained by the model's internal variability while the recent 2030 yr trend occurs with a more than 1% chance in ECHO-G CTL.

  1. Socio-economic impacts of extreme weather events in Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis-Reddy, Claire L

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Africa (continued) 2008-2012 The map below highlights countries in southern Africa affected by cyclones (green) and floods (pink colour) between 2008 and 2012. The largest map in the right panel highlights countries that were affected by flooding... increase in maize prices (WFP, 2016). The overall cereal deficit for the region stands at 7.90 million tonnes for the 2015-16 marketing year as compared to 3.9 million in 2014/15 (WFP, 2016). 42 | Second Edition C H A P T E R 3 : S O C I O - E C O N...

  2. The Asian-Australian Monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model*.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.

    1998-06-01

    Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1°-2°C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1-2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year. Time series of area-averaged SSTs for the NINO3 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific show that the CSM is producing about 60% of the amplitude of the observed variability in that region, consistent

  3. Weathering profiles in granitoid rocks of the Sila Massif uplands, Calabria, southern Italy: New insights into their formation processes and rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarciglia, Fabio; Critelli, Salvatore; Borrelli, Luigi; Coniglio, Sabrina; Muto, Francesco; Perri, Francesco

    2016-05-01

    In this paper we characterized several weathering profiles developed on granitoid rocks in the Sila Massif upland (Calabria, southern Italy), integrating detailed macro- and micromorphological observations with physico-mechanical field tests and petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical analyses. We focused our attention on the main weathering and pedogenetic processes, trying to understand apparent discrepancies between weathering grade classes based on field description and geomechanical properties, and two common weathering indices, such as the micropetrographic index (Ip) and the chemical index of alteration (CIA). Our results showed that sericite on plagioclase and biotite chloritization, that represent inherited features formed during late-stage hydrothermal alteration of granitoid rocks, may cause an overestimation of the real degree of weathering of primary mineral grains under meteoric conditions, especially in lower weathering grade classes. Moreover, the frequent identification of Fe-Mn oxides and clay coatings of illuvial origin (rather than or in addition to those formed in situ), both at the macro- and microscale, may also explain an overestimation of the weathering degree with respect to field-based classifications. Finally, some apparent inconsistencies between field geomechanical responses and chemical weathering were interpreted as related to physical weathering processes (cryoclastism and thermoclastism), that lead to rock breakdown even when chemical weathering is not well developed. Hence, our study showed that particular caution is needed for evaluating weathering grades, because traditional field and geochemical-petrographic tools may be biased by inherited hydrothermal alteration, physical weathering and illuvial processes. On the basis of chronological constraints to soil formation obtained from a 42 ka-old volcanic input (mixed to granite parent materials) detected in the soil cover of the Sila Massif upland, a first attempt to estimate

  4. The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation: A Natural Paleoclimate Cycle in the Southern Hemisphere That Influences Global Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Jackson Davis

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We report a previously-unexplored natural temperature cycle recorded in ice cores from Antarctica—the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO—that has oscillated for at least the last 226 millennia. Here we document the properties of the ACO and provide an initial assessment of its role in global climate. We analyzed open-source databases of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen as proxies for paleo-temperatures. We find that centennial-scale spectral peaks from temperature-proxy records at Vostok over the last 10,000 years occur at the same frequencies (±2.4% in three other paleoclimate records from drill sites distributed widely across the East Antarctic Plateau (EAP, and >98% of individual ACOs evaluated at Vostok match 1:1 with homologous cycles at the other three EAP drill sites and conversely. Identified ACOs summate with millennial periodicity to form the Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIMs known to precede Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O oscillations recorded in Greenland ice cores. Homologous ACOs recorded at the four EAP drill sites during the last glacial maximum appeared first at lower elevations nearest the ocean and centuries later on the high EAP, with latencies that exceed dating uncertainty >30-fold. ACO homologs at different drill sites became synchronous, however, during the warmer Holocene. Comparative spectral analysis suggests that the millennial-scale AIM cycle declined in period from 1500 to 800 years over the last 70 millennia. Similarly, over the last 226 millennia ACO repetition period (mean 352 years declined by half while amplitude (mean 0.67 °C approximately doubled. The period and amplitude of ACOs oscillate in phase with glacial cycles and related surface insolation associated with planetary orbital forces. We conclude that the ACO: encompasses at least the EAP; is the proximate source of D-O oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore affects global temperature; propagates with increased velocity as temperature

  5. The association between El Niño/Southern Oscillation events and typhoons in the Marshall Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spennemann, D H; Marschner, I C

    1995-09-01

    An analysis of the historic record of typhoons in the Marshall Islands has identified a significant association between the occurrence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the occurrence of typhoons in the Marshall Islands. Whilst typhoons normally occur further to the east, the warming of the ocean waters around the Marshall Islands, as part of the ENSO phenomenon, generates typhoons further to the west. The results suggest that typhoons are 2.6 times more likely to occur during ENSO years, with a 71 per cent chance of a typhoon striking during an ENSO year, and only a 26 per cent chance of one happening during a non-ENSO year. This has implications for planning and public safety, which the relevant authorities may wish to take note of.

  6. Impact of sub-horizontal discontinuities and vertical heterogeneities on recharge processes in a weathered crystalline aquifer in southern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas, Madeleine; Selles, Adrien; Bour, Olivier; Maréchal, Jean-Christophe; Crenner, Marion; Wajiduddin, Mohammed; Ahmed, Shakeel

    2017-04-01

    In the face of increasing demands for irrigated agriculture, many states in India are facing water scarcity issues, leading to severe groundwater depletion. Because perennial water resources in southern India consist mainly of crystalline aquifers, understanding how recharge takes place and the role of preferential flow zones in such heterogeneous media is of prime importance for successful and sustainable aquifer management. Here we investigate how vertical heterogeneities and highly transmissive sub-horizontal discontinuities may control groundwater flows and recharge dynamics. Recharge processes in the vadose zone were examined by analysing the propagation of an infiltration front and mass transfers resulting from the implementation of a managed aquifer recharge (MAR) structure. Said structure was set up in the Experimental Hydrogeological Park in Telangana (Southern India), a well-equipped and continuously monitored site, which is periodically supplied with surface water deviated from the nearby Musi river, downstream of Hyderabad. An initial volume balance equation was applied to quantify the overall inputs from the MAR structure into the groundwater system, which was confirmed using a chloride mass balance approach. To understand how this incoming mass is then distributed within the aquifer, we monitored the evolution of water volumes in the tank, and the resulting lateral propagation front observed in the surrounding borehole network. Borehole logs of temperature and conductivity were regularly performed to identify preferential flow paths. As a result we observed that mass transfers take place in the way of preferential lateral flow through the most transmissive zones of the profile. These include the interface between the lower portion of the upper weathered horizon (the saprolite) and the upper part of the underlying fissured granite, as well as the first flowing fractures. This leads to a rapid lateral transfer of recharge, which allows quick

  7. Analysis of PM2.5 in Córdoba, Argentina under the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanzaco, Bethania L.; Olcese, Luis E.; Querol, Xavier; Toselli, Beatriz M.

    2017-12-01

    In this work, PM2.5 samples were collected in the winter-spring months of 2014-2016 at an urban site in Córdoba. Córdoba is the second largest city in Argentina and is an important industrial and touristic center. The collected samples were individually analyzed for chemical composition using different techniques. The soluble inorganic ions and carbonaceous particles were determined from bulk aerosol samples for the first time in the city. The mass concentrations of PM2.5, organic carbon, elemental carbon, inorganic ions and metals were determined according to the mass balance. The dominant mass components were organic matter and elemental carbon (54.8%), mineral dust (6.1%), secondary inorganic aerosols (3.0%), and salt (1.2%). A principal component analysis was applied to the samples and resulted in five major factors that explained 79% of the variance in PM2.5. These factors represented combustion, industrial sources, soil dust, secondary inorganic aerosol, and salt, and each explained between 11% and 20% of the variance. A comparison with the results from a previous campaign (2010-2011) revealed appreciable changes in the PM2.5 chemical composition. These changes were attributed to the two extreme meteorological conditions that prevailed in the region. The years 2014-2016 were largely dominated by the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which leads to humid and cold weather in the Córdoba region, while the samples from 2010 to 2011 were collected during the dry and hot years resulting from the La Niña regime.

  8. Atmospheric circulation over the Bolivian Altiplano during dry and wet periods and extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuille, M.

    1999-11-01

    The atmospheric circulation over the Bolivian Altiplano during composite WET and DRY periods and during HIGH and LOW index phases of the Southern Oscillation was investigated using daily radiosonde data from Antofagasta (Chile), Salta (Argentina), Lima (Peru) and La Paz (Bolivia), daily precipitation data from the Bolivian/Chilean border between 18° and 19°S and monthly NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data between 1960 and 1998. In austral summer (DJF) the atmosphere during WET periods is characterized by easterly wind anomalies in the middle and upper troposphere over the Altiplano, resulting in increased moisture influx from the interior of the continent near the Altiplano surface. The Bolivian High is intensified and displaced southward. On the other hand, westerly winds usually prevail during DRY summer periods, preventing the moisture transport from the east from reaching the western Altiplano. Precipitation tends to be deficient over the western Bolivian Altiplano during LOW index summers and above average during HIGH and LOW+1 summers, but the relation is weak and statistically insignificant. LOW summers feature broadly similar atmospheric circulation anomalies as DRY periods and can be regarded as an extended DRY period or as a summer with increased occurrence of DRY episodes. HIGH summers, and to a lesser degree LOW+1 summers, are characterized by broadly opposite atmospheric characteristics, featuring a more pronounced Bolivian High located significantly further south, and easterly wind anomalies over the Altiplano. In winter (JJA) precipitation events are rare; these are associated with increased northerly and westerly wind components, reduced pressure and temperature, and increased specific humidity over the entire Altiplano. Atmospheric circulation anomalies during LOW periods are less pronounced in austral winter (JJA) than in summer, but generally feature similar changes (increased temperatures and a vertically

  9. Using transfer functions to quantify El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics in data and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacMartin, Douglas G; Tziperman, Eli

    2014-09-08

    Transfer function tools commonly used in engineering control analysis can be used to better understand the dynamics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), compare data with models and identify systematic model errors. The transfer function describes the frequency-dependent input-output relationship between any pair of causally related variables, and can be estimated from time series. This can be used first to assess whether the underlying relationship is or is not frequency dependent, and if so, to diagnose the underlying differential equations that relate the variables, and hence describe the dynamics of individual subsystem processes relevant to ENSO. Estimating process parameters allows the identification of compensating model errors that may lead to a seemingly realistic simulation in spite of incorrect model physics. This tool is applied here to the TAO array ocean data, the GFDL-CM2.1 and CCSM4 general circulation models, and to the Cane-Zebiak ENSO model. The delayed oscillator description is used to motivate a few relevant processes involved in the dynamics, although any other ENSO mechanism could be used instead. We identify several differences in the processes between the models and data that may be useful for model improvement. The transfer function methodology is also useful in understanding the dynamics and evaluating models of other climate processes.

  10. Orbital forcing of the late Pleistocene boreal summer monsoon: Links to North Atlantic cold events and El Nino; Southern Oscillation. Geologica Ultraiectina (313)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ziegler, M.

    2009-01-01

    This thesis revolves about the timing of precession-related variations in the boreal summer monsoon and the impact of North Atlantic cold events and the El Nino Southern Oscillation on this timing. Transient climate modelling experiments indicate that the intensity of the Northern Hemisphere summer

  11. Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño/Southern Oscillation impacts on regional chlorophyll anomalies in the Indian Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Currie

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO are independent climate modes, which frequently co-occur, driving significant interannual changes within the Indian Ocean. We use a four-decade hindcast from a coupled biophysical ocean general circulation model, to disentangle patterns of chlorophyll anomalies driven by these two climate modes. Comparisons with remotely sensed records show that the simulation competently reproduces the chlorophyll seasonal cycle, as well as open-ocean anomalies during the 1997/1998 ENSO and IOD event. Results suggest that anomalous surface and euphotic-layer chlorophyll blooms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in fall, and southern Bay of Bengal in winter, are primarily related to IOD forcing. A negative influence of IOD on chlorophyll concentrations is shown in a region around the southern tip of India in fall. IOD also depresses depth-integrated chlorophyll in the 5–10° S thermocline ridge region, yet the signal is negligible in surface chlorophyll. The only investigated region where ENSO has a greater influence on chlorophyll than does IOD, is in the Somalia upwelling region, where it causes a decrease in fall and winter chlorophyll by reducing local upwelling winds. Yet unlike most other regions examined, the combined explanatory power of IOD and ENSO in predicting depth-integrated chlorophyll anomalies is relatively low in this region, suggestive that other drivers are important there. We show that the chlorophyll impact of climate indices is frequently asymmetric, with a general tendency for larger positive than negative chlorophyll anomalies. Our results suggest that ENSO and IOD cause significant and predictable regional re-organisation of chlorophyll via their influence on near-surface oceanography. Resolving the details of these effects should improve our understanding, and eventually gain predictability, of interannual changes in Indian Ocean productivity, fisheries

  12. Precipitation in Santa Barbara, CA on varying timescales and the relationships with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and atmospheric rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, S. M.; Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.

    2013-12-01

    This study aimed to understand the patterns and variations of extreme precipitation events that occur in Santa Barbara County and determine the relationships with various phenomena that affect the region. Santa Barbara, CA is an area with complex topography that is disposed to numerous hazard events including landslides and flooding, particularly during the region's rainy season (Nov.-Apr.). These incidents are especially frequent in the seasons after fire-events, another hazard common to the region. In addition, Santa Barbara is affected by several tropical phenomena that influence precipitation on varying timescales including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and atmospheric rivers (ARs). It is well known that ENSO and the MJO influence storms that occur in southern California through processes such as the modulation of the upper level jet and the low level moisture flux. ARs have been revealed to be responsible for the movement of large quantities of water vapor from tropical areas to the midlatitudes and have been linked to high-intensity storms throughout the western coast of North America. We examined rainy season (Nov.-Apr.) precipitation within Santa Barbara County using hourly rainfall data spanning approximately forty years (~1971-2010) from seven, local, rain gauge stations. The distributions as well as totals of precipitation on varying timescales (hourly, daily, seasonal, and yearly) were defined for specified intensities of rainfall based upon the 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Persistence, expressed as the number of consecutive hours (or days) including intense precipitation defined according to the percentiles, was investigated on the hourly and daily timescales. In addition, specified storm episodes identified in this study were examined with data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission in order to assess the spatial features of high-intensity storms. Results from this analysis will be

  13. International Severe Weather and Flash Flood Hazard Early Warning Systems—Leveraging Coordination, Cooperation, and Partnerships through a Hydrometeorological Project in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Jubach

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate, weather and water hazards do not recognize national boundaries. Transboundary/regional programs and cooperation are essential to reduce the loss of lives and damage to livelihoods when facing these hazards. The development and implementation of systems to provide early warnings for severe weather events such as cyclones and flash floods requires data and information sharing in real time, and coordination among the government agencies at all levels. Within a country, this includes local, municipal, provincial-to-national levels as well as regional and international entities involved in hydrometeorological services and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR. Of key importance are the National Meteorological and Hydrologic Services (NMHSs. The NMHS is generally the authority solely responsible for issuing warnings for these hazards. However, in many regions of the world, the linkages and interfaces between the NMHS and other agencies are weak or non-existent. Therefore, there is a critical need to assess, strengthen, and formalize collaborations when addressing the concept of reducing risk and impacts from severe weather and floods. The U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance; the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO; the WMO Southern Africa Regional Specialized Meteorological Center, hosted by the South African Weather Service; the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service and the Hydrologic Research Center (a non-profit corporation are currently implementing a project working with Southern Africa NMHSs on addressing this gap. The project aims to strengthen coordination and collaboration mechanisms from national to local levels. The project partners are working with the NMHSs to apply and implement appropriate tools and infrastructure to enhance currently operational severe weather and flash flood early warning systems in each country in support of

  14. Climate variability and El Niño Southern Oscillation: implications for natural coastal resources and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thatje, Sven; Heilmayer, Olaf; Laudien, Jürgen

    2008-03-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influences marine ecosystems and the sustained exploitation of marine resources in the coastal zone of the Humboldt Current upwelling system. Both its warm (El Niño: EN) and cold (La Niña: LN) phase have drastic implications for the ecology, socio-economy and infrastructure along most of Pacific South America. Local artisanal fisheries, which especially suffer from the effects of EN, represent a major part for the domestic economy of Chile and Peru and in consequence a huge amount of published and unpublished studies exists aiming at identifying effects of EN and LN. However, most processes and underlying mechanisms fostering the ecology of organisms along Pacific South America have not been analyzed yet and for the marine realm most knowledge is traditionally based on rather descriptive approaches. We herein advocate that small-scale comparative and interdisciplinary process studies work as one possible solution to understand better the variability observed in EN/LN effects at local scale. We propose that differences in small-scale impacts of ENSO along the coast rather than the macro-ecological and oceanographic view are essential for the sustainable management of costal ecosystems and the livelihood of the people depending on it. Based on this, we summarize the conceptual approach from the EU-funded International Science and Technology Cooperation (INCO) project “Climate variability and El Niño Southern Oscillation: Implications for Natural Coastal Resources and Management (CENSOR)” that aims at enhancing the detection, compilation, and understanding of EN and LN effects on the coastal zone and its natural resources. We promote a multidisciplinary avenue within present international funding schemes, with the intention to bridge the traditional gap between basic and applied coastal research. The long-term aim is an increased mitigation of harm caused by EN as well as a better use of beneficial effects

  15. Weathering properties of treated southern yellow pine wood examined by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy and physical characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salaita, Ghaleb N.; Ma, Frank M.S.; Parker, Trudy C. [Dow Chemical Company, Technical Center, 3200 Kanawha Turnpike, South Charleston, WV 25303 (United States); Hoflund, Gar B. [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Florida, P.O. Box 116005, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States)], E-mail: garho@hotmail.com

    2008-04-30

    In this study the weathering behavior of southern yellow pine (SYP) wood samples pretreated in different solutions has been examined using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and various types of physical characterization regarding material loss and discoloration. The treatment solutions include water as a control, a commercially available water repellent (WR) wood treating additive and polyethylene glycol (PEG) products including PEG PLUS{sup TM}, PEG 8000 solutions and Compound 20M in varying concentrations. All contained the wood preservative chromated copper arsenate (CCA). One sample was treated with a CCA solution only. The treatments were carried out at 20 deg. C and 150 psig for 1/2 h after exposure to vacuum (28 mmHg) for 15 min. Simulated weathering was achieved in an Atlas 65-W Weather-Ometer for 2000 h with both light and dark periods and rain. The temperature ranged from 23 deg. C during the dark cycle to 35 deg. C during the light cycle. With weathering the XPS O/C ratios increase due to oxidation of the surface. Exposure to UV light results in bond breakage and reaction with oxygen in the presence of air to form organic functional groups such as , , C=O and/or O-C-O. These oxidized products can protect the underlying wood from deterioration if they are insoluble in water and remain on the surface as a protective coating. If soluble, rain washes the compounds away and assists in the degradation. Correlated changes are observed in the XPS O/C ratios, the high-resolution XPS C 1s spectra, the SEM micrographs and physical measurements including thickness alteration, weight loss, and discoloration by yellowing or whitening of the weathered wood. The PEG treatments are effective in protecting wood with the 2% PEG PLUS treatment providing the best weathering behavior similar to that of the CCA treatment. The WR and water treatments yield the poorest weathering properties.

  16. Weathering properties of treated southern yellow pine wood examined by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy and physical characterization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salaita, Ghaleb N.; Ma, Frank M.S.; Parker, Trudy C.; Hoflund, Gar B.

    2008-01-01

    In this study the weathering behavior of southern yellow pine (SYP) wood samples pretreated in different solutions has been examined using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and various types of physical characterization regarding material loss and discoloration. The treatment solutions include water as a control, a commercially available water repellent (WR) wood treating additive and polyethylene glycol (PEG) products including PEG PLUS TM , PEG 8000 solutions and Compound 20M in varying concentrations. All contained the wood preservative chromated copper arsenate (CCA). One sample was treated with a CCA solution only. The treatments were carried out at 20 deg. C and 150 psig for 1/2 h after exposure to vacuum (28 mmHg) for 15 min. Simulated weathering was achieved in an Atlas 65-W Weather-Ometer for 2000 h with both light and dark periods and rain. The temperature ranged from 23 deg. C during the dark cycle to 35 deg. C during the light cycle. With weathering the XPS O/C ratios increase due to oxidation of the surface. Exposure to UV light results in bond breakage and reaction with oxygen in the presence of air to form organic functional groups such as , , C=O and/or O-C-O. These oxidized products can protect the underlying wood from deterioration if they are insoluble in water and remain on the surface as a protective coating. If soluble, rain washes the compounds away and assists in the degradation. Correlated changes are observed in the XPS O/C ratios, the high-resolution XPS C 1s spectra, the SEM micrographs and physical measurements including thickness alteration, weight loss, and discoloration by yellowing or whitening of the weathered wood. The PEG treatments are effective in protecting wood with the 2% PEG PLUS treatment providing the best weathering behavior similar to that of the CCA treatment. The WR and water treatments yield the poorest weathering properties

  17. Impact of a Stochastic Parameterization Scheme on El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the Community Climate System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, H. M.; Berner, J.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic parameterizations have been used for more than a decade in atmospheric models. They provide a way to represent model uncertainty through representing the variability of unresolved sub-grid processes, and have been shown to have a beneficial effect on the spread and mean state for medium- and extended-range forecasts. There is increasing evidence that stochastic parameterization of unresolved processes can improve the bias in mean and variability, e.g. by introducing a noise-induced drift (nonlinear rectification), and by changing the residence time and structure of flow regimes. We present results showing the impact of including the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies scheme (SPPT) in coupled runs of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4) with historical forcing. SPPT results in a significant improvement in the representation of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in CAM4, improving the power spectrum, as well as both the inter- and intra-annual variability of tropical pacific sea surface temperatures. We use a Linear Inverse Modelling framework to gain insight into the mechanisms by which SPPT has improved ENSO-variability.

  18. Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banu, Shahera; Guo, Yuming; Hu, Wenbiao; Dale, Pat; Mackenzie, John S; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu

    2015-11-05

    Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

  19. Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the wheat market: A global dynamic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Luciano

    2017-01-01

    Although the widespread influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrences on crop yields of the main agricultural commodities is well known, the global socio-economic consequences of ENSO still remain uncertain. Given the global importance of wheat for global consumption by providing 20% of global calories and nourishment, the monitoring and prediction of ENSO-induced variations in the worldwide wheat market are essential for allowing national governments to manage the associated risks and to ensure the supplies of wheat for consumers, including the underprivileged. To this end, we propose a global dynamic model for the analysis of ENSO impacts on wheat yield anomalies, export prices, exports and stock-to-use ratios. Our framework focuses on seven countries/regions: the six main wheat-exporting countries-the United States, Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the group of the main Black Sea export countries, i.e. Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan-plus the rest of the world. The study shows that La Niña exerts, on average, a stronger and negative impact on wheat yield anomalies, exports and stock-to-use ratios than El Niño. In contrast, wheat export prices are positively related to La Niña occurrences evidencing, once again, its steady impact in both the short and long run. Our findings emphasize the importance of the two ENSO extreme phases for the worldwide wheat market.

  20. Pengaruh ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation terhadap transpor massa air laut di Selat Malaka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak. Penelitian ini mengkaji pengaruh ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation di Selat Malaka dengan memakai indek osilasi selatan Samudera Pasifik dalam menentukan kondisi Normal, El Niño dan La Nina sebagai analisis transpor massa air laut, elevasi muka laut dan densitas laut. Metode penelitian menggunakan persamaan Navier-Stokes dengan gaya pembangkit pasang surut, angin dari National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Tahun 1980-2007, Salinitas (Levitus dan Boyer, 1994a dan Temperatur (Levitus dan Boyer, 1994b. Persamaan gerak air laut tersebut dimodelkan dengan model Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM. Hasil-hasil menunjukkan bahwa transpor di bagian barat laut Selat Malaka pergerakannya melemah dan transpor di bagian tenggara pergerakannya menguat dibandingkan pada kondisi tahun Normal dan La Nina. Sedangkan elevasi muka air di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun El Niño lebih rendah dibandingkan pada kondisi Normal dan La Nina. Selanjutnya densitas permukaan laut di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun Normal, El Niño dan La Nina berkisar 18,5 s/d 20,5 kg/m3. Densitas laut lapisan 30-50 m di Selat Malaka pada kondisi tahun Normal, El Niño dan La Nina berkisar 19 s/d 21 kg/m3. Densitas permukaan laut dan densitas laut kedalaman 30-50 m di bagian tenggara Selat Malaka pada kondisi El Niño lebih besar dibandingkan pada tahun Normal maupun tahun La Nina.

  1. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Signal over Kototabang, West Sumatera Based on the Mini Automatic Weather Station (MAWS) Data Analysis Using the Wavelet Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermawan, E.

    2018-04-01

    This study is mainly concerned an application of Mini Automatic Weather Station (MAWS) at Kototabang, West Sumatera nearby the location of an Equatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR) side. We are interest to use this data to investigate the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). We examined of daily MAWS data for 3 years observations started from January 2001 to Mei 2004. By applying wavelet analysis, we found the MJO at Kototabang have 32 days oscillations as shown in Fig.1 below. In this study, we concentrate just for local mechanis only. We will show in this paper that at the phase of the MJO with a dipole structure to the convection anomalies, there is enhanced tropical convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and reduced convection over the western Pacific. Over the equatorial western Indian Ocean, the equatorial Rossby wave response to the west of the enhanced convection includes a region of anomalous surface divergence associated with the anomalous surface westerlies and pressure ridge. This tends to suppress ascent in the boundary layer and shuts off the deep convection, eventually leading to a convective anomaly of the opposite sign. Over the Indonesian sector, the equatorial Kelvin wave response to the east of the enhanced convection includes a region of anomalous surface convergence into the anomalous equatorial surface easterlies and pressure trough, which will tend to favour convection in this region. The Indonesian sector is also influenced by an equatorial Rossby wave response (of opposite sign) to the west of the reduced convection over the western Pacific, which also has a region of anomalous surface convergence associated with its anomalous equatorial surface easterlies and pressure trough. Hence, convective anomalies of either sign tend to erode themselves from the west and initiate a convective anomaly of opposite sign via their equatorial Rossby wave response, and expand to the east via their equatorial Kelvin wave response.

  2. Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and karst spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. De Vita

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Thus far, studies on climate change have focused mainly on the variability of the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle, investigating the impact of this variability on the environment, especially with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods. Conversely, the impacts of climate change on the recharge of aquifers and on the variability of groundwater flow have been less investigated, especially in Mediterranean karst areas whose water supply systems depend heavily upon groundwater exploitation.

    In this paper, long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater recharge were analysed by examining decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy, coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.

    The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, from 1921 to 2010, using 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations with the most continuous functioning. The time series of the winter NAO index and of the discharges of 3 karst springs, selected from those feeding the major aqueducts systems, were collected for the same period.

    Regional normalised indexes of the precipitation, air temperature and karst spring discharges were calculated, and different methods were applied to analyse the related time series, including long-term trend analysis using smoothing numerical techniques, cross-correlation and Fourier analysis.

    The investigation of the normalised indexes highlighted the existence of long-term complex periodicities, from 2 to more than 30 yr, with differences in average values of up to approximately ±30% for precipitation and karst spring discharges, which were both strongly correlated with the winter NAO index.

    Although the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO had already been demonstrated in the long-term precipitation and streamflow patterns of

  3. El Niño-Southern Oscillation is linked to decreased energetic condition in long-distance migrants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina L Paxton

    Full Text Available Predicting how migratory animals respond to changing climatic conditions requires knowledge of how climatic events affect each phase of the annual cycle and how those effects carry-over to subsequent phases. We utilized a 17-year migration dataset to examine how El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic events in geographically different regions of the Western hemisphere carry-over to impact the stopover biology of several intercontinental migratory bird species. We found that migratory birds that over-wintered in South America experienced significantly drier environments during El Niño years, as reflected by reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI values, and arrived at stopover sites in reduced energetic condition during spring migration. During El Niño years migrants were also more likely to stopover immediately along the northern Gulf coast of the southeastern U.S. after crossing the Gulf of Mexico in small suboptimal forest patches where food resources are lower and migrant density often greater than larger more contiguous forests further inland. In contrast, NDVI values did not differ between El Niño and La Niña years in Caribbean-Central America, and we found no difference in energetic condition or use of coastal habitats for migrants en route from Caribbean-Central America wintering areas. Birds over-wintering in both regions had consistent median arrival dates along the northern Gulf coast, suggesting that there is a strong drive for birds to maintain their time program regardless of their overall condition. We provide strong evidence that not only is the stopover biology of migratory landbirds influenced by events during the previous phase of their life-cycle, but where migratory birds over-winter determines how vulnerable they are to global climatic cycles. Increased frequency and intensity of ENSO events over the coming decades, as predicted by climatic models, may disproportionately influence long-distance migrants

  4. Interannual variation in methane emissions from tropical wetlands triggered by repeated El Niño Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qiuan; Peng, Changhui; Ciais, Philippe; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Bousquet, Philippe; Li, Shiqin; Chang, Jie; Fang, Xiuqin; Zhou, Xiaolu; Chen, Huai; Liu, Shirong; Lin, Guanghui; Gong, Peng; Wang, Meng; Wang, Han; Xiang, Wenhua; Chen, Jing

    2017-01-01

    Methane (CH4) emissions from tropical wetlands contribute 60%–80% of global natural wetland CH4 emissions. Decreased wetland CH4 emissions can act as a negative feedback mechanism for future climate warming and vice versa. The impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on CH4 emissions from wetlands remains poorly quantified at both regional and global scales, and El Niño events are expected to become more severe based on climate models’ projections. We use a process-based model of global wetland CH4 emissions to investigate the impacts of the ENSO on CH4 emissions in tropical wetlands for the period from 1950 to 2012. The results show that CH4 emissions from tropical wetlands respond strongly to repeated ENSO events, with negative anomalies occurring during El Niño periods and with positive anomalies occurring during La Niña periods. An approximately 8-month time lag was detected between tropical wetland CH4 emissions and ENSO events, which was caused by the combined time lag effects of ENSO events on precipitation and temperature over tropical wetlands. The ENSO can explain 49% of interannual variations for tropical wetland CH4 emissions. Furthermore, relative to neutral years, changes in temperature have much stronger effects on tropical wetland CH4 emissions than the changes in precipitation during ENSO periods. The occurrence of several El Niño events contributed to a lower decadal mean growth rate in atmospheric CH4 concentrations throughout the 1980s and 1990s and to stable atmospheric CH4 concentrations from 1999 to 2006, resulting in negative feedback to global warming.

  5. El Niño-Southern Oscillation-based index insurance for floods: Statistical risk analyses and application to Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Abedalrazq F.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Miranda, Mario J.; Skees, Jerry

    2007-10-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate-related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations, data are inadequate to develop an index because of short time series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the districts of Peru, Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many microenterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data are variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (1) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall, (2) the effect of sampling uncertainties and the strength of the proxy's association to local outcome, (3) the potential for clustering of payoffs, (4) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season, and (5) evidence

  6. Interannual sea level variability in the Pearl River Estuary and its response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Mao, Xian-zhong; Bi, Hongsheng; Yin, Peng

    2018-03-01

    The South China coast, especially the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) region, is prosperous and densely populated, but vulnerable to sea level changes. Sea level anomalies (SLA) during 1954-2012 from tide gauge station data and regional SLAs during 1993-2012 from satellite altimetry are analyzed and compare to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that sea level declines during El Niño events and rises during La Niña. Sea level in the PRE responds to ENSO with 3-month lag. The ENSO can cause sea level in the PRE to fluctuate from -8.70 to 8.11 cm. Sea level cycles of 3 and 5 years are related to ENSO. The ENSO mechanism affecting sea level in the PRE was analyzed by identifying dominant regional and local forces. Weak/strong SLAs in most El Niño/La Niña events may be attributed to less/more seawater transport driven by anomalously weak/strong north winds and local anomalously high/low sea level pressure. Wind-driven coastal current is the predominant factor. It generated coastal seawater volume transport along a 160 km wide cross section to decrease by 21.07% in a typical El Niño period (January 2010) and increase by 44.03% in a typical La Niña period (January 2011) as compared to an ENSO neutral situation (January 2013). Results of sea level rise and its potential mechanism provide insight for disaster protection during extreme El Niño/La Niña events.

  7. Analysis of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomena's Effect on the Gross Domestic Product of Western Pacific Nations

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, M.; Lewis, A.; Mezzafonte, D.

    2014-12-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatological phenomenon that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean which has a direct influence on the climate of western Pacific nations. This study evaluated the meteorological effects of ENSO on the economies of Indonesia and the Philippines. It was hypothesized that decreased precipitation in the western Tropical Pacific region during El Niño events causes decreases in agricultural production in the region resulting in a negative effect on a nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Furthermore, during La Niña events, when precipitation increases, an increase in the nation's agricultural GDP and overall GDP is expected. Annual GDP data were obtained from the World Bank and the Bank of Indonesia for 1960-2012. Sea surface temperatures (SST) data, in the Niño 3.4 region, were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climate Data Center. Data of the agricultural and total GDP of Indonesia and the Philippines had inconclusive correlations with ENSO signal data. By examining data between smaller time segments of the overall 1960-2012 timeframe, more conclusive results could not be discerned. Indonesia's quarterly non-oil GDP for 2000-2009 was independently correlated with ENSO providing better insight on the variables' relationship during discrete ENSO phenomena. The results provided strong correlation coefficients of 0.831 and 0.624 in support of the antithesis as well as -0.421 in support of the hypothesis. An economic anomaly known as the East Asian Financial Crisis may have been the cause of the unexpected correlations however more data is needed to be certain. Overall, the results demonstrated weak to moderate correlations between studied variables. However, more data is needed to reach substantial conclusions.

  8. Tales of volcanoes and El-Nino southern oscillations with the oxygen isotope anomaly of sulfate aerosol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaheen, Robina; Abauanza, Mariana; Jackson, Teresa L; McCabe, Justin; Savarino, Joel; Thiemens, Mark H

    2013-10-29

    The ability of sulfate aerosols to reflect solar radiation and simultaneously act as cloud condensation nuclei renders them central players in the global climate system. The oxidation of S(IV) compounds and their transport as stable S(VI) in the Earth's system are intricately linked to planetary scale processes, and precise characterization of the overall process requires a detailed understanding of the linkage between climate dynamics and the chemistry leading to the product sulfate. This paper reports a high-resolution, 22-y (1980-2002) record of the oxygen-triple isotopic composition of sulfate (SO4) aerosols retrieved from a snow pit at the South Pole. Observed variation in the O-isotopic anomaly of SO4 aerosol is linked to the ozone variation in the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere via the Ozone El-Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) Index (OEI). Higher (17)O values (3.3‰, 4.5‰, and 4.2‰) were observed during the three largest ENSO events of the past 2 decades. Volcanic events inject significant quantities of SO4 aerosol into the stratosphere, which are known to affect ENSO strength by modulating stratospheric ozone levels (OEI = 6 and (17)O = 3.3‰, OEI = 11 and (17)O = 4.5‰) and normal oxidative pathways. Our high-resolution data indicated that (17)O of sulfate aerosols can record extreme phases of naturally occurring climate cycles, such as ENSOs, which couple variations in the ozone levels in the atmosphere and the hydrosphere via temperature driven changes in relative humidity levels. A longer term, higher resolution oxygen-triple isotope analysis of sulfate aerosols from ice cores, encompassing more ENSO periods, is required to reconstruct paleo-ENSO events and paleotropical ozone variations.

  9. Comparison of recreational health risks associated with surfing and swimming in dry weather and post-storm conditions at Southern California beaches using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Linda Y; Jiang, Sunny C

    2012-05-01

    Southern California is an increasingly urbanized hotspot for surfing, thus it is of great interest to assess the human illness risks associated with this popular ocean recreational water sport from exposure to fecal bacteria contaminated coastal waters. Quantitative microbial risk assessments were applied to eight popular Southern California beaches using readily available enterococcus and fecal coliform data and dose-response models to compare health risks associated with surfing during dry weather and storm conditions. The results showed that the level of gastrointestinal illness risks from surfing post-storm events was elevated, with the probability of exceeding the US EPA health risk guideline up to 28% of the time. The surfing risk was also elevated in comparison with swimming at the same beach due to ingestion of greater volume of water. The study suggests that refinement of dose-response model, improving monitoring practice and better surfer behavior surveillance will improve the risk estimation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Regional characteristics of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the sea level in the China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Liu, Kexiu; Wang, Aimei; Feng, Jianlong; Fan, Wenjing; Liu, Qiulin; Xu, Yao; Zhang, Zengjian

    2018-05-01

    Based on coastal tide level, satellite altimetry, and sea surface temperature (SST) data of offshore areas of China's coast and the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the regional characteristics of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the sea level in the China Sea were investigated. Singular value decomposition results show a significant teleconnection between the sea level in the China Sea and the SST of the tropical Pacific Ocean; the correlation coefficient decreases from south to north. Data from tide gauges along China's coast show that the seasonal sea-level variations are significantly correlated with the ENSO. In addition, China's coast was divided into three regions based on distinctive regional characteristics. Results obtained show that the annual amplitude of sea level was low during El Niño developing years, and especially so during the El Niño year. The ENSO intensity determined the response intensity of the annual amplitude of the sea level. The response region (amplitude) was relatively large for strong ENSO intensities. Significant oscillation periods at a timescale of 4-7 years existed in the sea level of the three regions. The largest amplitude of oscillation was 1.5 cm, which was the fluctuation with the 7-year period in the South China Sea. The largest amplitude of oscillation in the East China Sea was about 1.3 cm. The amplitude of oscillation with the 6-year period in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea was the smallest (less than 1 cm).

  11. Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships' logbooks, 1815-1854. Part I: methodology and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Hannah G.; Jones, Julie M.; Bigg, Grant R.

    2018-02-01

    The meteorological information found within ships' logbooks is a unique and fascinating source of data for historical climatology. This study uses wind observations from logbooks covering the period 1815 to 1854 to reconstruct an index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for boreal winter (DJF). Statistically-based reconstructions of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are obtained using two methods: principal component regression (PCR) and composite-plus-scale (CPS). Calibration and validation are carried out over the modern period 1979-2014, assessing the relationship between re-gridded seasonal ERA-Interim reanalysis wind data and the instrumental SOI. The reconstruction skill of both the PCR and CPS methods is found to be high with reduction of error skill scores of 0.80 and 0.75, respectively. The relationships derived during the fitting period are then applied to the logbook wind data to reconstruct the historical SOI. We develop a new method to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructions to using a limited number of observations per season and find that the CPS method performs better than PCR with a limited number of observations. A difference in the distribution of wind force terms used by British and Dutch ships is found, and its impact on the reconstruction assessed. The logbook reconstructions agree well with a previous SOI reconstructed from Jakarta rain day counts, 1830-1850, adding robustness to our reconstructions. Comparisons to additional documentary and proxy data sources are provided in a companion paper.

  12. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and water resources in the headwaters region of the Yellow River: links and potential for forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lü

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This research explores the rainfall-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO and runoff-ENSO relationships and examines the potential for water resource forecasting using these relationships. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, Niño1.2, Niño3, Niño4, and Niño3.4 were selected as ENSO indicators for cross-correlation analyses of precipitation and runoff. There was a significant correlation (95% confidence level between precipitation and ENSO indicators during three periods: January, March, and from September to November. In addition, monthly streamflow and monthly ENSO indictors were significantly correlated during three periods: from January to March, June, and from October to December (OND, with lag periods between one and twelve months. Because ENSO events can be accurately predicted one to two years in advance using physical modeling of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the lead time for forecasting runoff using ENSO indicators in the Headwaters Region of the Yellow River could extend from one to 36 months. Therefore, ENSO may have potential as a powerful forecasting tool for water resources in the headwater regions of Yellow River.

  13. Continental weathering as a driver of Late Cretaceous cooling: new insights from clay mineralogy of Campanian sediments from the southern Tethyan margin to the Boreal realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chenot, Elise; Deconinck, Jean-François; Pucéat, Emmanuelle; Pellenard, Pierre; Guiraud, Michel; Jaubert, Maxime; Jarvis, Ian; Thibault, Nicolas; Cocquerez, Théophile; Bruneau, Ludovic; Razmjooei, Mohammad J.; Boussaha, Myriam; Richard, James; Sizun, Jean-Pierre; Stemmerik, Lars

    2018-03-01

    New clay mineralogical analyses have been performed on Campanian sediments from the Tethyan and Boreal realms along a palaeolatitudinal transect from 45° to 20°N (Danish Basin, North Sea, Paris Basin, Mons Basin, Aquitaine Basin, Umbria-Marche Basin and Tunisian Atlas). Significant terrigenous inputs are evidenced by increasing proportions of detrital clay minerals such as illite, kaolinite and chlorite at various levels in the mid- to upper Campanian, while smectitic minerals predominate and represented the background of the Late Cretaceous clay sedimentation. Our new results highlight a distinct latitudinal distribution of clay minerals, with the occurrence of kaolinite in southern sections and an almost total absence of this mineral in northern areas. This latitudinal trend points to an at least partial climatic control on clay mineral sedimentation, with a humid zone developed between 20° and 35°N. The association and co-evolution of illite, chlorite and kaolinite in most sections suggest a reworking of these minerals from basement rocks weathered by hydrolysis, which we link to the formation of relief around the Tethys due to compression associated with incipient Tethyan closure. Diachronism in the occurrence of detrital minerals between sections, with detrital input starting earlier during the Santonian in the south than in the north, highlights the northward progression of the deformation related to the anticlockwise rotation of Africa. Increasing continental weathering and erosion, evidenced by our clay mineralogical data through the Campanian, may have resulted in enhanced CO2 consumption by silicate weathering, thereby contributing to Late Cretaceous climatic cooling.

  14. Mid-late Holocene changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Hadley Cell intensity; their effect on sea-surface conditions in the mid-latitude southeast Pacific Ocean (41°S)

    OpenAIRE

    Verleye, T.

    2010-01-01

    The study focuses on the observed effects of changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Hadley Cell intensity on sea-surface water conditions in the SE Pacific (41°S; Site ODP1233) during the last 8.000 years. Recent studies suggest that periods characterised by a negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI; El Niño) cause positive precipitation anomalies during austral winter (and annually) in Mid-South Chile, while austral summer periods are rather drier. This because El Niño weake...

  15. Role of the Indian Ocean on the southern oscillation, atmospheric circulation indices and monsoon rainfall over India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Wells, N.C.

    Oscillation and ENSO is also examined. Indian monsoon rainfall is strongly and positively correlated with the SST of November month (0.77; statistically significant at 99% level) of the preceding calendar year. Monsoon indices (M1, U200) are strongly...

  16. Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: Implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Niño–Southern Oscillation records

    OpenAIRE

    Keefer, David K.; Moseley, Michael E.

    2004-01-01

    In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2–8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term “shattered landscape” to describe th...

  17. Galactic cosmic ray and El Nino Southern Oscillation trends in International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 low-cloud properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marsh, N.; Svensmark, Henrik

    2003-01-01

    [1] The recently reported correlation between clouds and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) implies the existence of a previously unknown process linking solar variability and climate. An analysis of the interannual variability of International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 (ISCCP-D2) low-cloud...... a strong correlation with GCR, which suggests that low-cloud properties observed in these regions are less likely to be contaminated from overlying cloud. The GCR-low cloud correlation cannot easily be explained by internal climate processes, changes in direct solar forcing, or UV-ozone interactions...... properties over the period July 1983 to August 1994 suggests that low clouds are statistically related to two processes, (1) GCR and (2) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with GCR explaining a greater percentage of the total variance. Areas where satellites have an unobstructed view of low cloud possess...

  18. The Relationship between El nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon and Seasonal Precipitation Variability in Eastern Kenya with Special Reference to Katumani: Its Implication to Crop Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitheka, S.K

    1999-01-01

    Climatic variability has been defined as a major limitation to agricultural production in semi arid Kenya. The major difficulty to both farmers and research community, has been the inability to to predict seasonal rainfall prior to the season onset. Although several researches have attempted and made advances in predicting rainfall amount, solutions to the problem have not been achieved. This study has examined and related rainfall at Katumani with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Rainfall variations during different phases of ENSO were established. Some advances in the early prediction of March-May and October -January rains for, both, the warm and cold phases of ENSO have been made. Crop production is closely related to the rainfall and therefore a need for revision of agronomic recommendation to tie them with rainfall variation

  19. Proxy Records of the Indonesian Low and the El Ni{tilde n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from Stable Isotope Measurements of Indonesian Reef Corals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, M.D.

    1995-12-31

    The Earth`s largest atmospheric convective center is the Indonesian Low. It generates the Australasian monsoon, drives the zonal tropospheric Walker Circulation, and is implicated in the genesis of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The long-term variability of the Indonesian Low is poorly characterized, yet such information is crucial for evaluating whether changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are a possible manifestation of global warming. Stable oxygen isotope ratios ({delta}{sup 18}O) in shallow-water reef coral skeletons track topical convective activity over hundreds of years because the input of isotopically-depleted rainwater dilutes seawater {delta}{sup 18}O. Corals also impose a temperature-dependent fractionation on {delta}{sup 18}O, but where annual rainfall is high and sea surface temperature (SST) variability is low the freshwater flux effect dominates.

  20. The Influence of Weather Anomalies on Mercury Cycling in the Marine Coastal Zone of the Southern Baltic-Future Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bełdowska, Magdalena

    2015-01-01

    Despite the decreased emission loads of mercury, historical deposits of this metal in various compartments of the environment may become an additional diffuse source in the future. Global climate change manifests itself in the temperate zone in several ways: warmer winters, shorter icing periods, increased precipitation and heightened frequency of extreme events such as strong gales and floods, all of which cause disturbances in the rate and direction of mercury biogeochemical cycling. The present study was conducted at two sites, Oslonino and Gdynia Orlowo (both in the coastal zone of the Gulf of Gdansk), from which samples were collected once a month between January 2012 and December 2012. In the Southern Baltic region, climate changes can certainly enhance coast to basin fluxes of mercury and the transfer of bioavailable forms of this metal to the food web. They may also, in the future, contribute to uncontrollable increases of mercury in the seawater.

  1. Non-stationary influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and winter temperature on oak latewood growth in NW Iberian Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozas, Vicente; García-González, Ignacio

    2012-09-01

    The properties of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as period, amplitude, and teleconnection strength to extratropical regions, have changed since the mid-1970s. ENSO affects the regional climatic regime in SW Europe, thus tree performance in the Iberian Peninsula could be affected by recent ENSO dynamics. We established four Quercus robur chronologies of earlywood and latewood widths in the NW Iberian Peninsula. The relationship between tree growth and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the atmospheric expression of ENSO, showed that only latewood growth was correlated negatively with the SOI of the previous summer-autumn-winter. This relationship was non-stationary, with significant correlations only during the period 1952-1980; and also non-linear, with enhanced latewood growth only in La Niña years, i.e. years with a negative SOI index for the previous autumn. Non-linear relationship between latewood and SOI indicates an asymmetric influence of ENSO on tree performance, biassed towards negative SOI phases. During La Niña years, climate in the study area was warmer and wetter than during positive years, but only for 1952-1980. Winter temperatures became the most limiting factor for latewood growth since 1980, when mean regional temperatures increased by 1°C in comparison to previous periods. As a result, higher winter respiration rates, and the extension of the growing season, would probably cause an additional consumption of stored carbohydrates. The influence of ENSO and winter temperatures proved to be of great importance for tree growth, even at lower altitudes and under mild Atlantic climate in the NW Iberian Peninsula.

  2. Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquin; Gutierrez, Jose M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire–weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating

  3. Annual distributions and variations of dust weather occurrence over the Tarim Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yong; Zhou, Yang; Wang, Minzhong; Huo, Wen; Huang, Anning; Yang, Xinhua; Yang, Fan

    2018-04-01

    The annual distribution and variations in dust weather occurrence (DWO) have been analyzed using monthly DWO data from 26 stations over the Tarim Basin during the period of 1961 to 2010. The results show that the DWO presents a significant decreasing trend for different parts of the Tarim Basin in recent decades. The monthly DWO has two peaks in the east and west. In the first half of the year, the peak is in April, but in the second half of the year, the peak is in September. According to the concentration period and concentration degree (CD) of DWO, we can find that the maximum DWO occurs in April in the eastern, western, and northern parts of the basin, but it occurs in May in the southern part. The dust weather season is shorter for the northern and eastern parts of the basin than those of the remaining parts. On average, the dust weather season initiates in April in the northeast and in May for the rest of the region. As an indicator for the length of dust weather season, the CD is significantly related to DWO, with a correlation coefficient of -0.51, revealing an interesting feature of regional climate change with declining DWO and declining dust weather season over the Tarim Basin. The correlation analysis exhibits that all the Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation have a negative relation with the DWO but a positive relation with the length of dust weather season.

  4. Atmospheric and Oceanic Response to Southern Ocean Deep Convection Oscillations on Decadal to Centennial Time Scales in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T.; Reintges, A.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many current coupled global climate models simulate open ocean deep convection in the Southern Ocean as a recurring event with time scales ranging from a few years to centennial (de Lavergne et al., 2014, Nat. Clim. Ch.). The only observation of such event, however, was the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid-1970s, an open water area of 350 000 km2 within the Antarctic sea ice in three consecutive winters. Both the wide range of modeled frequency of occurrence and the absence of deep convection in the Weddell Sea highlights the lack of understanding concerning the phenomenon. Nevertheless, simulations indicate that atmospheric and oceanic responses to the cessation of deep convection in the Southern Ocean include a strengthening of the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean (increasing SAM index) and a reduction in the export of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), potentially masking the regional effects of global warming (Latif et al., 2013, J. Clim.; Martin et al., 2014, Deep Sea Res. II). It is thus of great importance to enhance our understanding of Southern Ocean deep convection and clarify the associated time scales. In two multi-millennial simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM, ECHAM5 T31 atmosphere & NEMO-LIM2 ~2˚ ocean) we showed that the deep convection is driven by strong oceanic warming at mid-depth periodically overriding the stabilizing effects of precipitation and ice melt (Martin et al., 2013, Clim. Dyn.). Sea ice thickness also affects location and duration of the deep convection. A new control simulation, in which, amongst others, the atmosphere grid resolution is changed to T42 (~2.8˚), yields a faster deep convection flip-flop with a period of 80-100 years and a weaker but still significant global climate response similar to CMIP5 simulations. While model physics seem to affect the time scale and intensity of the phenomenon, the driving mechanism is a rather robust feature. Finally, we compare the atmospheric and

  5. A new-old approach for shallow landslide analysis and susceptibility zoning in fine-grained weathered soils of southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cascini, Leonardo; Ciurleo, Mariantonietta; Di Nocera, Silvio; Gullà, Giovanni

    2015-07-01

    Rainfall-induced shallow landslides involve several geo-environmental contexts and different types of soils. In clayey soils, they affect the most superficial layer, which is generally constituted by physically weathered soils characterised by a diffuse pattern of cracks. This type of landslide most commonly occurs in the form of multiple-occurrence landslide phenomena simultaneously involving large areas and thus has several consequences in terms of environmental and economic damage. Indeed, landslide susceptibility zoning is a relevant issue for land use planning and/or design purposes. This study proposes a multi-scale approach to reach this goal. The proposed approach is tested and validated over an area in southern Italy affected by widespread shallow landslides that can be classified as earth slides and earth slide-flows. Specifically, by moving from a small (1:100,000) to a medium scale (1:25,000), with the aid of heuristic and statistical methods, the approach identifies the main factors leading to landslide occurrence and effectively detects the areas potentially affected by these phenomena. Finally, at a larger scale (1:5000), deterministic methods, i.e., physically based models (TRIGRS and TRIGRS-unsaturated), allow quantitative landslide susceptibility assessment, starting from sample areas representative of those that can be affected by shallow landslides. Considering the reliability of the obtained results, the proposed approach seems useful for analysing other case studies in similar geological contexts.

  6. Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: Implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Niño–Southern Oscillation records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keefer, David K.; Moseley, Michael E.

    2004-01-01

    In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2–8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term “shattered landscape” to describe the severity of these effects. Long-term consequences of this landscape shattering are inferred to include increased runoff and sediment transport during postearthquake rainstorms. This inference was confirmed during the first minor postearthquake rainstorm there, which occurred in June and July of 2002. Greater amounts of rainfall in this desert region have historically been associated with El Niño events. Previous studies of an unusual paleoflood deposit in this region have concluded that it is the product of El Niño-generated precipitation falling on seismically disturbed landscapes. The effects of the 2001 earthquake and 2002 rainstorm support that conclusion. PMID:15263069

  7. Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Nino-Southern Oscillation records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keefer, David K; Moseley, Michael E

    2004-07-27

    In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2-8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term "shattered landscape" to describe the severity of these effects. Long-term consequences of this landscape shattering are inferred to include increased runoff and sediment transport during postearthquake rainstorms. This inference was confirmed during the first minor postearthquake rainstorm there, which occurred in June and July of 2002. Greater amounts of rainfall in this desert region have historically been associated with El Niño events. Previous studies of an unusual paleoflood deposit in this region have concluded that it is the product of El Niño-generated precipitation falling on seismically disturbed landscapes. The effects of the 2001 earthquake and 2002 rainstorm support that conclusion.

  8. Distribution of black flies (Diptera: Simuliidae) along an elevational gradient in the Andes Mountains of Colombia during the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantilla, Juan S; Moncada, Ligia I; Matta, Nubia E; Adler, Peter H

    2018-07-01

    Vector ecology is a key factor in understanding the transmission of disease agents, with each species having an optimal range of environmental requirements. Scarce data, however, are available for how interactions of local and broad-scale climate phenomena, such as seasonality and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), affect simuliids. We, therefore, conducted an exploratory study to examine distribution patterns of species of Simuliidae along an elevational gradient of the Otún River in the Colombian Andes, encompassing four ecoregions. Larval and pupal simuliids were sampled at 52 sites ranging from 1800 to 4750 m above sea level in dry and wet seasons and during the La Niña phase (2011-2012) and the El Niño phase (2015-2016) of the ENSO; physicochemical measurements were taken during the El Niño phase. Twenty-seven species in two genera (Gigantodax and Simulium) were collected. Species richness and occurrence in each ecoregion were influenced by elevation, seasonality, and primarily the warm El Niño and cool La Niña phases of the ENSO. The degree of change differed among ecoregions and was related to physicochemical factors, mainly with stream discharge. Some putative simuliid vectors of Leucocytozoon, such as G. misitu and S. muiscorum, markedly changed in distribution and occurrence, potentially influencing parasite transmission. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Oxygen isotopes in tree rings are a good proxy for Amazon precipitation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brienen, Roel J. W.; Helle, Gerd; Pons, Thijs L.; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Gloor, Manuel

    2012-10-01

    We present a unique proxy for the reconstruction of variation in precipitation over the Amazon: oxygen isotope ratios in annual rings in tropical cedar (Cedrela odorata). A century-long record from northern Bolivia shows that tree rings preserve the signal of oxygen isotopes in precipitation during the wet season, with weaker influences of temperature and vapor pressure. Tree ring δ18O correlates strongly with δ18O in precipitation from distant stations in the center and west of the basin, and with Andean ice core δ18O showing that the signal is coherent over large areas. The signal correlates most strongly with basin-wide precipitation and Amazon river discharge. We attribute the strength of this (negative) correlation mainly to the cumulative rainout processes of oxygen isotopes (Rayleigh distillation) in air parcels during westward transport across the basin. We further find a clear signature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the record, with strong ENSO influences over recent decades, but weaker influence from 1925 to 1975 indicating decadal scale variation in the controls on the hydrological cycle. The record exhibits a significant increase in δ18O over the 20th century consistent with increases in Andean δ18O ice core and lake records, which we tentatively attribute to increased water vapor transport into the basin. Taking these data together, our record reveals a fresh path to diagnose and improve our understanding of variation and trends of the hydrological cycle of the world's largest river catchment.

  10. Recharge beneath low-impact design rain gardens and the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on urban, coastal groundwater resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newcomer, M. E.; Gurdak, J. J.

    2011-12-01

    Groundwater resources in urban, coastal environments are highly vulnerable to increased human pressures and climate variability. Impervious surfaces, such as buildings, roads, and parking lots prevent infiltration, reduce recharge to underlying aquifers, and increase contaminants in surface runoff that often overflow sewage systems. To mitigate these effects, cities worldwide are adopting low impact design (LID) approaches that direct runoff into natural vegetated systems, such as rain gardens that reduce, filter, and slow stormwater runoff, and are hypothesized to increase infiltration and recharge rates to aquifers. The effects of LID on recharge rates and quality is unknown, particularly during intense precipitation events for cities along the Pacific coast in response to interannual variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using vadose zone monitoring sensors and instruments, I collected and monitored soil, hydraulic, and geochemical data to quantify the rates and quality of infiltration and recharge to the California Coastal aquifer system beneath a LID rain garden and traditional turf-lawn setting in San Francisco, CA. The data were used to calibrate a HYDRUS-3D model to simulate recharge rates under historical and future variability of ENSO. Understanding these processes has important implications for managing groundwater resources in urban, coastal environments.

  11. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fer, Istem; Tietjen, Britta; Jeltsch, Florian; Wolff, Christian

    2017-09-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.

  12. Machine learning and linear regression models to predict catchment-level base cation weathering rates across the southern Appalachian Mountain region, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas A. Povak; Paul F. Hessburg; Todd C. McDonnell; Keith M. Reynolds; Timothy J. Sullivan; R. Brion Salter; Bernard J. Crosby

    2014-01-01

    Accurate estimates of soil mineral weathering are required for regional critical load (CL) modeling to identify ecosystems at risk of the deleterious effects from acidification. Within a correlative modeling framework, we used modeled catchment-level base cation weathering (BCw) as the response variable to identify key environmental correlates and predict a continuous...

  13. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles on wave-driven sea-floor sediment mobility along the central California continental margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storlazzi, Curt D.; Reid, Jane A.

    2010-01-01

    Ocean surface waves are the dominant temporally and spatially variable process influencing sea floor sediment resuspension along most continental shelves. Wave-induced sediment mobility on the continental shelf and upper continental slope off central California for different phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was modeled using monthly statistics derived from more than 14 years of concurrent hourly oceanographic and meteorologic data as boundary input for the Delft SWAN wave model, gridded sea floor grain-size data from the usSEABED database, and regional bathymetry. Differences as small as 0.5 m in wave height, 1 s in wave period, and 10° in wave direction, in conjunction with the spatially heterogeneous unconsolidated sea-floor sedimentary cover, result in significant changes in the predicted mobility of continental shelf surficial sediment in the study area. El Niño events result in more frequent mobilization on the inner shelf in the summer and winter than during La Niña events and on the outer shelf and upper slope in the winter months, while La Niña events result in more frequent mobilization on the mid-shelf during spring and summer months than during El Niño events. The timing and patterns of seabed mobility are addressed in context of geologic and biologic processes. By understanding the spatial and temporal variability in the disturbance of the sea floor, scientists can better interpret sedimentary patterns and ecosystem structure, while providing managers and planners an understanding of natural impacts when considering the permitting of offshore activities that disturb the sea floor such as trawling, dredging, and the emplacement of sea-floor engineering structures.

  14. Interannual variability of summertime aerosol optical depth over East Asia during 2000–2011: a potential influence from El Niño Southern Oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yikun; Liu, Junfeng; Tao, Shu

    2013-01-01

    Aerosols degrade air quality, perturb atmospheric radiation, and impact regional and global climate. Due to the rapid increase in anthropogenic emissions, aerosol loading over East Asia (EA) is markedly higher than other industrialized regions, which motivates a need to characterize the evolution of aerosols and understand the associated drivers. Based on the MISR satellite data during 2000–2011, a wave-like interannual variation of summertime aerosol optical depth (SAOD) is observed over the highly populated North China Plain (NCP) in East Asia. Specifically, the peak-to-trough ratio of SAOD ranges from 1.4 to 1.6, with a period of 3–4 years. This variation pattern differs apparently from what has been seen in EA emissions, indicating a periodic change in regional climate pattern during the past decade. Investigations of meteorological fields over the region reveal that the high SAOD is generally associated with the enhanced Philippine Sea Anticyclone Anomaly (PSAA) which weakens southeasterlies over northeastern EA and depresses air ventilation. Alternatively, higher temperature and lower relative humidity are found to be coincident with reduced SAOD. The behavior of PSAA has been found previously to be modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), therefore ENSO could disturb the EA SAOD as well. Rather than changing coherently with the ENSO activity, the SAOD peaks over NCP are found to be accompanied by the rapid transition of El Niño warm to cold phases developed four months ahead. An index measuring the development of ENSO during January–April is able to capture the interannual variability of SAOD over NCP during 2000–2011. This finding indicates a need to integrate the large-scale periodic climate variability in the design of regional air quality policy. (letter)

  15. Sea Surface Temperatures Mediated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Affect Birds Breeding in Temperate Coastal Rain Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony J. Gaston

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available We studied the timing of breeding and juvenile/adult ratios among songbirds in temperate rain forests over four years on the Haida Gwaii (Queen Charlotte Islands archipelago, British Columbia. In May 1998, air temperatures in Haida Gwaii were above average, whereas in 1999 they were the lowest in 20 yr: temperatures in the other two years were closer to normal, although 2001 was almost as cold as 1999. Temperatures closely followed the patterns of sea surface temperatures created by the 1997-1998 El Niño, i.e., warm, event and the subsequent strong La Niña, i.e., cool, event. Timing of breeding, as measured by the first capture of juveniles or by direct observations of hatching, varied by approximately 19 d between the earliest (1998 and latest (1999 years. In 1998, the proportion of juveniles among birds trapped increased steeply as soon as young birds began to appear. In other years, the rate of increase was slower. In 1999, the peak proportions of hatching-year individuals among the foliage-gleaning insectivores, i.e., the Orange-crowned Warbler (Vermivora celata, Townsend's Warbler (Dendroica townsendi, and the Golden-crowned Kinglet (Regulus satrapa, were lower than in other years, with almost no young Orange-crowned Warblers captured at all. The pattern of variation in the timing of breeding and in the proportion of hatching-year individuals trapped fitted the temperature data well, although rainfall may also have contributed. We concluded that changes mediated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO in sea surface temperatures off northern British Columbia, through their effects on air temperatures, had a strong effect on the breeding of forest birds, to the point of causing nearly complete reproductive failure for one species in 1999. An intensification of the ENSO cycle could lead to more erratic reproduction for some species.

  16. Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Shujie [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Rodo, Xavier [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Institut Catala de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Song, Yongjia [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cash, Benjamin A. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2012-09-15

    We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10-20-day and 30-50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30-50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30-50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10-20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10-20-day ISOs, the air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not

  17. Mineral weathering in acid saprolites from subtropical, southern Brazil Intemperismo subtropical de minerais em saprolitos ácidos do Sul do Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso Augusto Clemente

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Because weathering of minerals releases chemical elements into the biogeochemical cycle, characterization of their weathering products helps to better model groundwater quality, formation of secondary minerals and nutrient flux through the trophic chain. Based on microscopic and elemental analyses, weathering of riodacite from Serra Geral formation was characterized and weathering paths proposed. Three weathering paths of plagioclase phenocrystals were identified: plagioclase to gibbsite (Pg1; plagioclase to gels and gibbsite (Pg2; and plagioclase to gels, gibbsite and kaolinite (Pg3. Pyroxenes weathered to smectite and goethite (Py1, or to goethite and gibbsite (Py2, and magnetite weathered directly into iron oxides. Rock matrix comprises 90% of rock volume, and weathered to kaolinite and gibbsite, which explains why these minerals were the most abundant in the weathering products of these saprolites.O intemperismo de minerais primários disponibiliza elementos químicos no ciclo biogeoquímico, que por sua vez influencia a qualidade da água subterrânea, formação de minerais secundários e o fluxo de nutrientes na cadeia trófica. Com base na análise microscópica e elemental, o intemperismo de riodacito da formação Serra Geral foi caracterizado e mecanismos de intemperismo propostos. Três processos principais de intemperismo de fenocristais de plagioclásios foram identificados: plagioclásio para gibbsita (Pg1; plagioclásio para gel e gibbsita (Pg2, e plagioclásio para gel, gibbsita e caulinita (Pg3. Piroxênios intemperizaram-se para esmectita e goetita (Py1, ou para goethita e gibbsita (Py2, e magnetita intemperizou-se para óxidos de ferro. A matriz da rocha compõe 90% do volume total, e intemperiza-se para caulinita e gibbsita, o que explica a abundância destes minerais nos produtos de intemperismo destes saprolitos.

  18. El Niño revisited: the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the world's largest tuna fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Receveur, A.; Simon, N.; Menkes, C.; Tremblay-Boyer, L.; Senina, I.; Lehodey, P.

    2016-12-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives global climate on inter-annual scales and impacts the ecosystem structure in the warm-pool and cold-tongue of the Pacific Ocean. During the El Niño phase of ENSO, the warm-pool can stretch from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern Pacific allowing species associated with the warm-pool to correspondingly spread eastwards. Conversely, during the la Niña phase the warm-pool is pushed to the far western equatorial Pacific by the cold-tongue allowing species associated with this ecosystem to spread westwards. Consequently, ENSO dynamics are likely to be critical for understanding the ecological processes supporting fisheries in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Surface inhabiting tuna, such as skipjack, are thought to track the convergence of the warm-pool and cold-tongue with fishing vessels tracking this tuna behavior. Given the reliance of Pacific Island economies on tuna fisheries, knowing when tunas are more likely to be present in high density in their territorial waters is beneficial for harvest control policies such as effort trading between nations. We use the SEAPODYM model to investigate the response of bigeye and skipjack tuna species to the phases of ENSO. SEAPODYM is an age structured model that integrates fisheries dependent and independent data with environmental data. We analyze the outputs of SEAPODYM using wavelets to assess the impact of environmental and biotic variables on the abundance and distribution of adult and juvenile age classes and to study time series cycle and temporal lags to ENSO. The main result for skipjack is the eastward or westward movement of the biomass pattern which is significantly lagged with the warm pool ENSO displacement. That lag ranges from 8 months for juvenile up to 18 months for adults. Such delayed response, can be traced in the model. Higher temperature in the central Pacific during El Niño leads to better recruitment which leads to lagged increase of juvenile

  19. The effects of an "El Niño" southern oscillation event on reproduction in male and female blue-footed boobies, Sula nebouxii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingfield, J C; Ramos-Fernandez, G; Nuñez-de la Mora, A; Drummond, H

    1999-05-01

    This study attempted to determine endocrine correlates of reproductive success in relation to major deleterious environmental conditions. In 1992, an El Niño southern oscillation event resulted in complete reproductive failure in a colony of blue-footed boobies, Sula nebouxi, on Isla Isabel in the Pacific Ocean off San Blas, Nayarit, Mexico (21.5 degrees N, 105.5 degrees W). In 1993, the El Niño event had waned and reproductive success was high. The mean sea surface temperature in 1992 was 26.69 degrees, the warmest year for 11 years of data (mean, 25.63 degrees ). In 1993, mean sea surface temperature was 25.75 degrees. Plasma levels of testosterone were highest during the egg-laying period in 1993 and declined markedly during incubation. There were no differences between males and females. Comparisons of testosterone levels between 1992 and 1993 (egg-laying time point removed for 1993) showed no significant differences. Thus reproductive failure during an El Niño year was not related to testosterone levels. Baseline plasma levels of corticosterone did not change over the nesting cycle in either sex. There was a trend for plasma levels of corticosterone to be higher in males and females during the earlier stages of breeding in 1992 compared with 1993, and if all levels were combined within years then females showed significantly higher plasma levels of corticosterone in the El Niño year. Plasma levels of corticosterone showed marked increases following capture and handling in both sexes and at every stage of the breeding cycle in each year. There was no variation in the adrenocortical responses to stress with year or stage of nesting in males. However, in females, maximum corticosterone levels were greatest during the parental phase of 1992, the El Niño year, when all nests ultimately failed. Comparisons of the dynamics of corticosterone changes during the capture stress protocol revealed no correlations with body mass in 1992 or 1993. These data suggest that

  20. Dust Storms in North China in 2002: A Case Study of the Low Frequency Oscillation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The low frequency oscillation in both hemispheres and its possible role in the dust weather storm events over North China in 2002 are analyzed as a case study. Results show that the Aleutian Low is linked with the Circumpolar Vortex in the Southern Hemisphere on a 30-60-day oscillation, with a weak Circumpolar Vortex tending to deepen the Aleutian Low which may be helpful for the generation of dust storm events.The possible mechanism behind this is the inter-hemispheric interaction of the mean meridional circulation,with the major variability over East Asia. The zonal mean westerly wind at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in the upper level troposphere may lead that of the Northern Hemisphere, which then impacts the local circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the low frequency oscillation teleconnection is one possible linkage in the coupling between the Southern Hemisphere circulation and dust events over North China. However, the interannual variation of the low frequency oscillation is unclear.

  1. Are population dynamics of shorebirds affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while on their non-breeding grounds in Ecuador?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Patrick D.; Haase, Ben J. M.; Elner, Robert W.; Smith, Barry D.; Kenyon, Jamie K.

    2007-08-01

    Declines in avian populations are a global concern, particularly for species that migrate between Arctic-temperate and tropical locations. Long-term population studies offer opportunities to detect and document ecological effects attributable to long-term climatic cycles such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we report possible population-level effects of such climatic cycles on shorebird species that use two non-breeding season sites in Ecuador (Santa Elena peninsula area, near La Libertad). During our 9-year study period (1991/1992-1999/2000), there was a particularly strong ENSO warm phase event during 1997/1998. Population trend data for three species of shorebird, Western Sandpipers ( Calidris mauri), Semipalmated Sandpipers ( C. pusilla), and Least Sandpipers ( C. minutilla), indicated abundances generally declined during the 1990s, but there was an increase in the proportion of first-year birds and their abundance in the years following the 1997/1998 ENSO warm phase. There was some support for variation in apparent survivorship associated with the onset of the ENSO warm phase event in our population models, based on capture-mark-recapture data. Following the 1997/1998 ENSO event onset, individuals for all three species were significantly lighter during the non-breeding season ( F1,3789 = 6.6, p = 0.01). Least-squares mean mass (controlling for size, sex and day of capture) for first-year birds dropped significantly more than for adults following ENSO (first-year mass loss = 0.69 ± 0.12 g; adult mass loss = 0.34 ± 0.11 g, F1,3789 = 5.31, p = 0.021), and least-squares mean mass dropped most during the period when sandpipers prepare for northward migration by gaining mass and moulting into breeding plumage. Least Sandpipers may have declined the most in mean mass following ENSO (0.76 ± 0.19 g), whereas Semipalmated Sandpipers were 0.52 ± 0.12 g lighter, and Western Sandpipers 0.40 ± 0.13 g lighter, but overall variation among

  2. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  3. Weather Instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brantley, L. Reed, Sr.; Demanche, Edna L.; Klemm, E. Barbara; Kyselka, Will; Phillips, Edwin A.; Pottenger, Francis M.; Yamamoto, Karen N.; Young, Donald B.

    This booklet presents some activities to measure various weather phenomena. Directions for constructing a weather station are included. Instruments including rain gauges, thermometers, wind vanes, wind speed devices, humidity devices, barometers, atmospheric observations, a dustfall jar, sticky-tape can, detection of gases in the air, and pH of…

  4. Using Haines Index coupled with fire weather model predicted from high resolution LAM forecasts to asses wildfire extreme behaviour in Southern Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaetani, Francesco; Baptiste Filippi, Jean; Simeoni, Albert; D'Andrea, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    Haines Index (HI) was developed by USDA Forest Service to measure the atmosphere's contribution to the growth potential of a wildfire. The Haines Index combines two atmospheric factors that are known to have an effect on wildfires: Stability and Dryness. As operational tools, HI proved its ability to predict plume dominated high intensity wildfires. However, since HI does not take into account the fuel continuity, composition and moisture conditions and the effects of wind and topography on fire behaviour, its use as forecasting tool should be carefully considered. In this work we propose the use of HI, predicted from HR Limited Area Model forecasts, coupled with a Fire Weather model (i.e., RISICO system) fully operational in Italy since 2003. RISICO is based on dynamic models able to represent in space and in time the effects that environment and vegetal physiology have on fuels and, in turn, on the potential behaviour of wildfires. The system automatically acquires from remote databases a thorough data-set of input information both of in situ and spatial nature. Meteorological observations, radar data, Limited Area Model weather forecasts, EO data, and fuel data are managed by a Unified Interface able to process a wide set of different data. Specific semi-physical models are used in the system to simulate the dynamics of the fuels (load and moisture contents of dead and live fuel) and the potential fire behaviour (rate of spread and linear intensity). A preliminary validation of this approach will be provided with reference to Sardinia and Corsica Islands, two major islands of the Mediterranean See frequently affected by extreme plume dominated wildfires. A time series of about 3000 wildfires burnt in Sardinia and Corsica in 2007 and 2008 will be used to evaluate the capability of HI coupled with the outputs of the Fire Weather model to forecast the actual risk in time and in space.

  5. Temperature oscillations in the upper thermocline region- A case study on internal waves off Kalpeni Island in the southern Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Charyulu, R.J.K.; Sarma, Y.V.B.; Sarma, M.S.S.; Rao, L.V.G.

    characteristics of the temperature oscillations. The power spectra of temperature fluctuations at 11 depths in the upper thermocline from 80 to 100 m with 2 m interval, were computed for studying the short period internal waves. Power spectra density was higher...

  6. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  7. Oscillator monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNeill, G.A.

    1981-01-01

    Present high-speed data acquisition systems in nuclear diagnostics use high-frequency oscillators to provide timing references for signals recorded on fast, traveling-wave oscilloscopes. An oscillator's sinusoidal wave shape is superimposed on the recorded signal with each cycle representing a fixed time increment. During data analysis the sinusoid is stripped from the signal, leaving a clean signal shape with known timing. Since all signal/time relationships are totally dependant upon working oscillators, these critical devices must have remote verification of proper operation. This manual presents the newly-developed oscillator monitor which will provide the required verification

  8. Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near-Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Ma, H.-Y.; Ahlgrimm, M.; Bazile, E.; Berg, L. K.; Cheng, A.; Cheruy, F.; Cole, J.; Forbes, R.; Gustafson, W. I.; Huang, M.; Lee, W.-S.; Liu, Y.; Mellul, L.; Merryfield, W. J.; Qian, Y.; Roehrig, R.; Wang, Y.-C.; Xie, S.; Xu, K.-M.; Zhang, C.; Klein, S.; Petch, J.

    2018-03-01

    We introduce the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface (CAUSES) project with its aim of better understanding the physical processes leading to warm screen temperature biases over the American Midwest in many numerical models. In this first of four companion papers, 11 different models, from nine institutes, perform a series of 5 day hindcasts, each initialized from reanalyses. After describing the common experimental protocol and detailing each model configuration, a gridded temperature data set is derived from observations and used to show that all the models have a warm bias over parts of the Midwest. Additionally, a strong diurnal cycle in the screen temperature bias is found in most models. In some models the bias is largest around midday, while in others it is largest during the night. At the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, the model biases are shown to extend several kilometers into the atmosphere. Finally, to provide context for the companion papers, in which observations from the SGP site are used to evaluate the different processes contributing to errors there, it is shown that there are numerous locations across the Midwest where the diurnal cycle of the error is highly correlated with the diurnal cycle of the error at SGP. This suggests that conclusions drawn from detailed evaluation of models using instruments located at SGP will be representative of errors that are prevalent over a larger spatial scale.

  9. Chromospheric oscillations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lites, B.W.; Rutten, R.J.; Thomas, J.H.

    1995-01-01

    We show results from SO/Sacramento Peak data to discuss three issues: (i)--the spatial occurrence of chromospheric 3--min oscillations; (ii)--the validity of Ca II H&K line-center Doppler Shift measurements; (iii)--the signi ?cance of oscillation power and phase at frequencies above 10 mHz.

  10. Inverted oscillator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuce, C [Physics Department, Anadolu University, Eskisehir (Turkey); Kilic, A [Physics Department, Anadolu University, Eskisehir (Turkey); Coruh, A [Physics Department, Sakarya University, Sakarya (Turkey)

    2006-07-15

    The inverted harmonic oscillator problem is investigated quantum mechanically. The exact wavefunction for the confined inverted oscillator is obtained and it is shown that the associated energy eigenvalues are discrete, and the energy is given as a linear function of the quantum number n.

  11. National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

  12. Rates of biotite weathering, and clay mineral transformation and neoformation, determined from watershed geochemical mass-balance methods for the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, Southern Blue Ridge Mountains, North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jason R. Price; Michael A. Velbel

    2013-01-01

    Biotite is a common constituent of silicate bedrock. Its weathering releases plant nutrients and consumes atmospheric CO2. Because of its stoichiometric relationship with its transformational weathering product and sensitivity to botanical activity, calculating biotite weathering rates using watershed mass-balance methods has proven challenging....

  13. Impacto de los eventos de El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO sobre la leishmaniosis cutánea en Sucre, Venezuela, a través del uso de información satelital, 1994 - 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Cabaniel S

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: Describir los posibles impactos de El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO sobre la leishmaniosis cutánea (LC en Sucre, Venezuela en el período 1994-2003. Materiales y Métodos: La data climática se obtuvo de sistemas remotos y fue clasificada de acuerdo con la National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA en periodos El Niño, Neutral o La Niña, usando el Southern Oscillation Index (SOI como indicador de variabilidad. Los datos de LC fueron obtenidos de la Gerencia de Saneamiento Ambiental en Sucre. Se realizaron comparaciones de las variaciones anuales y desviaciones de las tendencias medias, entre la incidencia de LC y variabilidad climática, así como modelos de regresión. Resultados: Se registraron entre 1994 -2003 en Sucre 2212 casos de LC. Se observaron tres fases importantes de El Niño: 1994-1995, 1997-1998 y 2001-2003, la más relevante correspondió a 1997-1998, que fue seguido de un periodo frío y lluvioso en 1999 (La Niña. Durante 1999/2000, se registraron 360 casos de LC en Sucre, con importante variabilidad intraanual, se observó un incremento en 66,7% de los casos de LC (F=10,06, p=0,0051 asociado a la presencia de La Niña débil (poco frío y lluvioso. Los modelos mostraron que a mayores valores del SOI menor incidencia de LC (r 2 =0,3308, p=0,0504. El incremento sobre la tendencia media de las precipitaciones se asoció con incrementos sobre las tendencias de la LC durante 1994-2003 (p=0,0358. Conclusiones: Estos datos reflejan la importancia del ENSO sobre la incidencia de la LC, abriendo una nueva línea de investigación con posible impacto en la predicción y monitoreo con relevancia en salud pública.

  14. Chemical Oscillations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IMTECH),. Chandigarh. Praveen Kumar is pursuing his PhD in chemical dynamics at. Panjab University,. Chandigarh. Keywords. Chemical oscillations, autoca-. talYSis, Lotka-Volterra model, bistability, hysteresis, Briggs-. Rauscher reaction.

  15. Chemical Oscillations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the law of mass-action that every simple reaction approaches ... from thermodynamic equilibrium. Such oscillating systems cor- respond to thermodynamically open systems. .... experimentally observable, and the third is always unstable.

  16. A 600 k.y. record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Evidence for persisting teleconnections during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate of Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenz, Olaf K.; Wilde, Volker; Riegel, Walter; Harms, Franz-Juergen

    2010-07-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a globally important factor in today's climate dynamics. Annually laminated oil shales from the maar lake of Messel (Germany) provide high-resolution sedimentological and paleoenvironmental data of a time interval of ˜600 k.y. during the Eocene greenhouse phase. Individual laminae consist of a light spring and summer algal layer (Tetraedron minimum layer) and a dark winter layer composed of terrigenous background sediment. Four sections were selected from the core of the Messel 2001 well in order to count varves and to measure total varve thickness and the thickess of light and dark laminae. Spectral analyses were done in order to detect possible cyclic fluctuations in varve thickness. Fluctuations are significant in the quasi-biennial (2.1-2.5 yr) and low-frequency band (2.8-3.5 yr, 4.9-5.6 yr), thus showing that algal growth as well as the background sedimentation were controlled by ENSO effects at least over a time interval of 600 k.y. This confirms the existence of a previously postulated robust Eocene ENSO. Significant peaks within a quasi-decadal (10-11 yr), interdecadal (17-26 yr), and multidecadal band (˜52 yr, ˜82 yr) show either the enduring influence of more or less cyclic instabilities or the influence of solar cycles.

  17. Pulmonary Blastomycosis in Vilas County, Wisconsin: Weather, Exposures and Symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis J. Baumgardner

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Blastomycosis is a serious fungal infection contracted by inhalation of Blastomyces spores from the environment. Case occurrence in dogs in Vilas County, Wisconsin, has been associated with antecedent weather. We aimed to explore the effects of weather on the occurrence of human pulmonary blastomycosis in this area, and update exposure factors and symptoms since last published reports. Methods: Mandatory case reports were reviewed. Chi-square test was used for categorical data of exposures, comparing 1979–1996 (n=101 versus 1997–June 2013 (n=95. Linear regression was used to model local weather data (available 1990–2013; n=126; Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI, and Wisconsin River water discharge (WRD from the adjacent county (all available for 1984–2013; n=174; and case counts of known onset by warm (April–September and cold (October–March 6-month periods. Results: Distribution of pulmonary blastomycosis cases did not vary by season. Environmental exposures for the 1997–June 2013 group (mean age 45, 59% male were: residence(76%, excavation (42% and gardening (31%, all similar to the 1979–1996 group. Fishing (23% vs. 37%; P=0.09 and hunting (15% vs. 26%; P=0.13 exposures were less common in 1997–June 2013, but not significantly different. Overall, 69% of cases recalled some prior soil-disturbing activities. Considering the 6-month warm/cold periods, 19% of variation is explained by a direct relationship with total precipitation from two periods prior (P=0.005. There was no association of case occurrence with SOI, NAOI or WRD. Estimated annual incidence of blastomycosis for 1997–June 2013 was 27/100,000 compared with 44/100,000 for 1984–1996. Several symptoms were significantly less frequent in 2002–June 2013 compared to earlier years. Conclusions: As with dogs, human pulmonary blastomycosis occurrence is partially determined by antecedent precipitation. It is unclear if

  18. Nonlinear oscillations

    CERN Document Server

    Nayfeh, Ali Hasan

    1995-01-01

    Nonlinear Oscillations is a self-contained and thorough treatment of the vigorous research that has occurred in nonlinear mechanics since 1970. The book begins with fundamental concepts and techniques of analysis and progresses through recent developments and provides an overview that abstracts and introduces main nonlinear phenomena. It treats systems having a single degree of freedom, introducing basic concepts and analytical methods, and extends concepts and methods to systems having degrees of freedom. Most of this material cannot be found in any other text. Nonlinear Oscillations uses sim

  19. Potential Predictability and Prediction Skill for Southern Peru Summertime Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    WU, S.; Notaro, M.; Vavrus, S. J.; Mortensen, E.; Block, P. J.; Montgomery, R. J.; De Pierola, J. N.; Sanchez, C.

    2016-12-01

    The central Andes receive over 50% of annual climatological rainfall during the short period of January-March. This summertime rainfall exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability, including severe drought events that incur devastating societal impacts and cause agricultural communities and mining facilities to compete for limited water resources. An improved seasonal prediction skill of summertime rainfall would aid in water resource planning and allocation across the water-limited southern Peru. While various underlying mechanisms have been proposed by past studies for the drivers of interannual variability in summertime rainfall across southern Peru, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and extratropical forcings, operational forecasts continue to be largely based on rudimentary ENSO-based indices, such as NINO3.4, justifying further exploration of predictive skill. In order to bridge this gap between the understanding of driving mechanisms and the operational forecast, we performed systematic studies on the predictability and prediction skill of southern Peru summertime rainfall by constructing statistical forecast models using best available weather station and reanalysis datasets. At first, by assuming the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of summertime rainfall are predictable, the potential predictability skill was evaluated for southern Peru. Then, we constructed a simple regression model, based on the time series of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and a more advanced Linear Inverse Model (LIM), based on the EOFs of tropical ocean SSTs and large-scale atmosphere variables from reanalysis. Our results show that the LIM model consistently outperforms the more rudimentary regression models on the forecast skill of domain averaged precipitation index and individual station indices. The improvement of forecast correlation skill ranges from 10% to over 200% for different

  20. Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

  1. Monthly Weather Review

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  2. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, C.; Meijide, A.; June, T.; Knohl, A.

    2016-12-01

    Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia. However, despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess continuously turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. The full surface energy budget is completed by measurements of radiative components, ground heat fluxes, and soil thermal and hydrological properties. The study is part of a large interdisciplinary project focussing on the ecological and socioeconomic functions of lowland rainforest transformation systems (EFForTS). During the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture and increasing air and surface temperatures. During the peak in September and October 2015, hundreds of fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production decreasing incoming solar radiation and increasing the diffuse fraction. Compared to regular years, the carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation decreased during the ENSO event. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the Bowen-ratio. Overall, the ENSO event resulted in a major anomaly of exchange processes between the oil palm plantation and the atmosphere.

  3. Weathering and landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.

    2005-04-01

    In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

  4. Oscillator circuits

    CERN Document Server

    Graf, Rudolf F

    1996-01-01

    This series of circuits provides designers with a quick source for oscillator circuits. Why waste time paging through huge encyclopedias when you can choose the topic you need and select any of the specialized circuits sorted by application?This book in the series has 250-300 practical, ready-to-use circuit designs, with schematics and brief explanations of circuit operation. The original source for each circuit is listed in an appendix, making it easy to obtain additional information.Ready-to-use circuits.Grouped by application for easy look-up.Circuit source listing

  5. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, Christian; Meijide, Ana; June, Tania; Knohl, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    The 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was one of the strongest observed in the last 20 years. Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia but despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as ENSO on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event and severe forest fires on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Continuous measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. In the beginning of the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture, increasing air and surface temperatures, and strong atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. During the peak of the drought from August to October 2015, hundreds of forest fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production, decreasing incoming solar radiation by 35% compared to pre-ENSO values and diffuse radiation became almost the sole shortwave radiation flux. During the beginning of the drought, carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation was around 2.1 gC m-2 d-1 and initially increased by 50% due to clear-sky conditions and high incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) but increasing density of smoke turned the oil palm plantation into a source of carbon. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the midday Bowen-ratio from 0.17 to 0.40. Strong smoke

  6. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Daily Antarctic Oscillation Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is a leading teleconnection pattern in the Southern Hemisphere circulation. It is calculated as the first Empirical Orthogonal...

  7. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Monthly Antarctic Oscillation Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is a leading teleconnection pattern in the Southern Hemisphere circulation. It is calculated as the first Empirical Orthogonal...

  8. One dimension harmonic oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen-Tannoudji, Claude; Diu, Bernard; Laloe, Franck.

    1977-01-01

    The importance of harmonic oscillator in classical and quantum physics, eigenvalues and eigenstates of hamiltonian operator are discussed. In complement are presented: study of some physical examples of harmonic oscillators; study of stationnary states in the /x> representation; Hermite polynomials; resolution of eigenvalue equation of harmonic oscillator by polynomial method; isotope harmonic oscillator with three dimensions; charged harmonic oscillator in uniform electric field; quasi classical coherent states of harmonic oscillator; eigenmodes of vibration of two coupled harmonic oscillators; vibration modus of a continuous physical system (application to radiation: photons); vibration modus of indefinite linear chain of coupled harmonic oscillators (phonons); one-dimensional harmonic oscillator in thermodynamic equilibrium at temperature T [fr

  9. Power oscillation damping controller

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2012-01-01

    A power oscillation damping controller is provided for a power generation device such as a wind turbine device. The power oscillation damping controller receives an oscillation indicating signal indicative of a power oscillation in an electricity network and provides an oscillation damping control...

  10. Oscillations of void lattices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhiezer, A.I.; Davydov, L.N.; Spol'nik, Z.A.

    1976-01-01

    Oscillations of a nonideal crystal are studied, in which macroscopic defects (pores) form a hyperlattice. It is shown that alongside with acoustic and optical phonons (relative to the hyperlattice), in such a crystal oscillations of the third type are possible which are a hydridization of sound oscillations of atoms and surface oscillations of a pore. Oscillation spectra of all three types were obtained

  11. Introduction to prescribed fires in Southern ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas A. Waldrop; Scott L. Goodrick

    2012-01-01

    This publication is a guide for resource managers on planning and executing prescribed burns in Southern forests and grasslands. It includes explanations of reasons for prescribed burning, environmental effects, weather, and techniques as well as general information on prescribed burning.

  12. Southern Hemisphere Ice Limits, 1973-1978

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weekly Southern Ocean ice limits, have been digitized from U.S. Navy Fleet Weather Facility ice charts, at the Max-Planck Institut fur Meteorologie, Hamburg....

  13. The Amazon hydrometeorology: Climatology, variability and links to changes in weather patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Katia De Avila

    My thesis focuses on improving the quantification of the hydrological cycle and understanding the atmospheric processes that link weather to climate in the Amazon River basin. By using ERA40 and independent observations, I assess how well we can estimate the surface water budget in the Amazon River basin. I find that ERA40 basin wide annual precipitation (P) overall agrees with observations showing a slight underestimation of 10% in average, whereas runoff (R) is underestimated by a larger margin (˜25%). Observed residual of precipitation and runoff (denoted as P-R) is better estimated by ERA40 P-R than actual ET which includes soil moisture nudging. The causes for said discrepancies were found to partly relate to soil moisture nudging that needs to be applied during the dry season to produce realistic ET and compensate for the low soil moisture recharge during the previous wet season. Insufficient recharge may in part be caused by underestimation of rainfall amount and intensity; moreover the shallow root layer in the model does not represent the deep soil water reservoir characteristic of the Amazonian forest. Whether the hydrological cycle and weather patterns in the Amazon have changed during the past few decades is a highly debatable but central question for detecting climate change in the region. The second part of my thesis focus on the physical links between rainfall changes detected in observations, and changes of synoptic scale systems as represented by ERA40. My results suggest that an observed delayed wet season onset is consistent with a decreasing number of cold air incursion (CAI) days in southern Amazon for the period 1979--2001. The variability of CAI into southern Amazon is related to the variability of SST upstream of South America in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. A Singular Value Decomposition Analysis (SVD) between CAI days and global SST reveal three main modes of co-variability. The first mode describes the effect of the El Nino-Southern

  14. Adverse Weather Evokes Nostalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim

    2018-03-01

    Four studies examined the link between adverse weather and the palliative role of nostalgia. We proposed and tested that (a) adverse weather evokes nostalgia (Hypothesis 1); (b) adverse weather causes distress, which predicts elevated nostalgia (Hypothesis 2); (c) preventing nostalgia exacerbates weather-induced distress (Hypothesis 3); and (d) weather-evoked nostalgia confers psychological benefits (Hypothesis 4). In Study 1, participants listened to recordings of wind, thunder, rain, and neutral sounds. Adverse weather evoked nostalgia. In Study 2, participants kept a 10-day diary recording weather conditions, distress, and nostalgia. We also obtained meteorological data. Adverse weather perceptions were positively correlated with distress, which predicted higher nostalgia. Also, adverse natural weather was associated with corresponding weather perceptions, which predicted elevated nostalgia. (Results were mixed for rain.) In Study 3, preventing nostalgia (via cognitive load) increased weather-evoked distress. In Study 4, weather-evoked nostalgia was positively associated with psychological benefits. The findings pioneer the relevance of nostalgia as source of comfort in adverse weather.

  15. WEATHER INDEX- THE BASIS OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botos Horia Mircea

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper approaches the subject of Weather Derivatives, more exactly their basic element the weather index. The weather index has two forms, the Heating Degree Day (HDD and the Cooling Degree Day (CDD. We will try to explain their origin, use and the relationship between the two forms of the index. In our research we started from the analysis of the weather derivatives and what they are based on. After finding out about weather index, we were interested in understanding exactly how they work and how they influence the value of the contract. On the national level the research in the field is scares, but foreign materials available. The study for this paper was based firstly on reading about Weather Derivative, and then going in the meteorogical field and determining the way by which the indices were determined. After this, we went to the field with interest in the indices, such as the energy and gas industries, and figured out how they determined the weather index. For the examples we obtained data from the weather index database, and calculated the value for the period. The study is made on a period of five years, in 8 cities of the European Union. The result of this research is that we can now understand better the importance of the way the indices work and how they influence the value of the Weather Derivatives. This research has an implication on the field of insurance, because of the fact that weather derivative are at the convergence point of the stock markets and the insurance market. The originality of the paper comes from the personal touch given to the theoretical aspect and through the analysis of the HDD and CDD index in order to show their general behaviour and relationship.

  16. Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Surface Weather Observation Collection consists primarily of hourly, synoptic, daily, and monthly forms submitted to the archive by the National Weather Service...

  17. Mariners Weather Log

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Mariners Weather Log (MWL) is a publication containing articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact...

  18. National Convective Weather Diagnostic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  19. Pilot Weather Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

  20. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

  1. Weather Radar Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

  2. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  3. Surface Weather Observations Hourly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

  4. Radar Weather Observation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Radar Weather Observation is a set of archived historical manuscripts stored on microfiche. The primary source of these radar weather observations manuscript records...

  5. Land Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

  6. Internet Weather Source

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

  7. Natural Weathering Exposure Station

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

  8. Space Weather in Operation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The “Space Weather in Operations” effort will provide on-demand and near-real time space weather event information to the Data Access Toolkit (DAT), which is the...

  9. Oscillators - a simple introduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Erik

    2013-01-01

    Oscillators are kernel components of electrical and electronic circuits. Discussion of history, mechanisms and design based on Barkhausens observation. Discussion of a Wien Bridge oscillator based on the question: Why does this circuit oscillate ?......Oscillators are kernel components of electrical and electronic circuits. Discussion of history, mechanisms and design based on Barkhausens observation. Discussion of a Wien Bridge oscillator based on the question: Why does this circuit oscillate ?...

  10. Oscillators and Eigenvalues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Erik

    1997-01-01

    In order to obtain insight in the nature of nonlinear oscillators the eigenvalues of the linearized Jacobian of the differential equations describing the oscillator are found and displayed as functions of time. A number of oscillators are studied including Dewey's oscillator (piecewise linear wit...... with negative resistance), Kennedy's Colpitts-oscillator (with and without chaos) and a new 4'th order oscillator with hyper-chaos....

  11. Cold-Weather Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

  12. Study on The Extended Range Weather Forecast of Low Frequency Signal Based on Period Analysis Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.

    2016-12-01

    Although many studies have explored the MJO and its application for weather forecasting, low-frequency oscillation has been insufficiently studied for the extend range weather forecasting over middle and high latitudes. In China, low-frequency synoptic map is a useful tool for meteorological operation department to forecast extend range weather. It is therefore necessary to develop objective methods to serve the need for finding low-frequency signal, interpretation and application of this signal in the extend range weather forecasting. In this paper, method of Butterworth band pass filter was applied to get low-frequency height field at 500hPa from 1980 to 2014 by using NCEP/NCAR daily grid data. Then period analysis and optimal subset regression methods were used to process the low frequency data of 150 days before the first forecast day and extend the low frequency signal of 500hPa low-frequency high field to future 30 days in the global from June to August during 2011-2014. Finally, the results were test. The main results are as follows: (1) In general, the fitting effect of low frequency signals of 500hPa low-frequency height field by period analysis in the northern hemisphere was better than that in the southern hemisphere, and was better in the low latitudes than that in the high latitudes. The fitting accuracy gradually reduced with the increase of forecast time length, which tended to be stable during the late forecasting period. (2) The fitting effects over the 6 key regions in China showed that except filtering result over Xinjiang area in the first 10 days and 30 days, filtering results over the other 5 key regions throughout the whole period have passed reliability test with level more than 95%. (3) The center and scope of low and high low frequency systems can be fitted well by using the methods mentioned above, which is consist with the corresponding use of the low-frequency synoptic map for the prediction of the extended period. Application of the

  13. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

  14. Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mäkinen, H; Kaseva, J; Trnka, M

    2018-01-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme...... weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21° to 61.34° and longitudes −6.02° to 26.24°) during the period 1991–2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (≥31 °C...... wheat cultivars that responded positively (+10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (−15 °C and −20 °C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently...

  15. ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison

    2017-10-01

    The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

  16. Space Weather Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Space Weather Computational Laboratory is a Unix and PC based modeling and simulation facility devoted to research analysis of naturally occurring electrically...

  17. Cockpit weather information needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Charles H.

    1992-01-01

    The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along

  18. Weather and emotional state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spasova, Z.

    2010-09-01

    Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

  19. Fabulous Weather Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael

    2007-01-01

    Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

  20. Designing a Weather Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Harry T.

    2012-01-01

    The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

  1. KSC Weather and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Launa; Huddleston, Lisa; Smith, Kristin

    2016-01-01

    This briefing outlines the history of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Weather organization, past research sponsored or performed, current organization, responsibilities, and activities, the evolution of weather support, future technologies, and an update on the status of the buoys located offshore of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and KSC.

  2. Weather and road capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore...

  3. Tales of future weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.

    2015-01-01

    Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

  4. Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Erhard M.

    1987-06-01

    Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

  5. Fair weather atmospheric electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, R G

    2011-01-01

    Not long after Franklin's iconic studies, an atmospheric electric field was discovered in 'fair weather' regions, well away from thunderstorms. The origin of the fair weather field was sought by Lord Kelvin, through development of electrostatic instrumentation and early data logging techniques, but was ultimately explained through the global circuit model of C.T.R. Wilson. In Wilson's model, charge exchanged by disturbed weather electrifies the ionosphere, and returns via a small vertical current density in fair weather regions. New insights into the relevance of fair weather atmospheric electricity to terrestrial and planetary atmospheres are now emerging. For example, there is a possible role of the global circuit current density in atmospheric processes, such as cloud formation. Beyond natural atmospheric processes, a novel practical application is the use of early atmospheric electrostatic investigations to provide quantitative information on past urban air pollution.

  6. Oscillating heat pipes

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, Hongbin

    2015-01-01

    This book presents the fundamental fluid flow and heat transfer principles occurring in oscillating heat pipes and also provides updated developments and recent innovations in research and applications of heat pipes. Starting with fundamental presentation of heat pipes, the focus is on oscillating motions and its heat transfer enhancement in a two-phase heat transfer system. The book covers thermodynamic analysis, interfacial phenomenon, thin film evaporation,  theoretical models of oscillating motion and heat transfer of single phase and two-phase flows, primary  factors affecting oscillating motions and heat transfer,  neutron imaging study of oscillating motions in an oscillating heat pipes, and nanofluid’s effect on the heat transfer performance in oscillating heat pipes.  The importance of thermally-excited oscillating motion combined with phase change heat transfer to a wide variety of applications is emphasized. This book is an essential resource and learning tool for senior undergraduate, gradua...

  7. Automatic Oscillating Turret.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-03-01

    Final Report: February 1978 ZAUTOMATIC OSCILLATING TURRET SYSTEM September 1980 * 6. PERFORMING 01G. REPORT NUMBER .J7. AUTHOR(S) S. CONTRACT OR GRANT...o....e.... *24 APPENDIX P-4 OSCILLATING BUMPER TURRET ...................... 25 A. DESCRIPTION 1. Turret Controls ...Other criteria requirements were: 1. Turret controls inside cab. 2. Automatic oscillation with fixed elevation to range from 20* below the horizontal to

  8. Neutrino oscillations in matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikheyev, S.P.; Smirnov, A.Yu.

    1986-01-01

    In this paper we describe united formalism of ν-oscillations for different regimes, which is immediate generalization of vacuum oscillations theory. Adequate graphical representation of this formalism is given. We summarize main properties of ν-oscillations for different density distributions. (orig./BBOE)

  9. The colpitts oscillator family

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Erik; Murali, K.; Tamasevicius, A.

    A tutorial study of the Colpitts oscillator family defined as all oscillators based on a nonlinear amplifier and a three- terminal linear resonance circuit with one coil and two capacitors. The original patents are investigated. The eigenvalues of the linearized Jacobian for oscillators based...

  10. Chemical weathering of palaeosols from the Lower Palaeolithic site of Valle Giumentina, central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degeai, Jean-Philippe; Villa, Valentina; Chaussé, Christine; Pereira, Alison; Nomade, Sébastien; Aureli, Daniele; Pagli, Marina; Nicoud, Elisa

    2018-03-01

    The major archaeological site of Valle Giumentina (Abruzzo) contains a well-dated Lower Palaeolithic pedosedimentary sequence that provides an excellent opportunity to study the relationships among soil weathering, volcanism and climate change at the glacial/interglacial and submillennial timescales in central Italy and the Mediterranean area during the Middle Pleistocene, as well as the human-environment interactions of some of the earliest settlements in central southern Europe. High-resolution analyses of geochemistry and magnetic susceptibility revealed the presence of eleven palaeosols, ten of which (S2-S11) were formed between 560 and 450 ka based on 40Ar/39Ar dating of sanidine in tephras, i.e. spanning marine isotope stages (MIS) 14-12. The evolution of the major and trace element composition suggests that the palaeosols were mainly formed by in situ weathering of the parent material. The major phases of soil weathering occurred during the MIS 13 interglacial period (S8 and S6) as well as during episodes of rapid environmental change associated with millennial climatic oscillations during the MIS 14 and 12 glaciations (S11 and S2, respectively). Although global forcing such as orbital variations, solar radiation, and greenhouse gas concentrations may have influenced the pedogenic processes, the volcanism in central Italy, climate change in the central Mediterranean, and tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Valle Giumentina basin also impacted and triggered the formation of most palaeosols, which provided subsistence resources for the Lower Palaeolithic human communities. This study highlights the importance of having high-resolution palaeoenvironmental records with accurate chronology as close as possible to archaeological sites to study human-environment interactions.

  11. Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trathan, P N; Forcada, J; Murphy, E J

    2007-12-29

    The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in

  12. Sun, weather, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

  13. Nature's Autonomous Oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayr, H. G.; Yee, J.-H.; Mayr, M.; Schnetzler, R.

    2012-01-01

    Nonlinearity is required to produce autonomous oscillations without external time dependent source, and an example is the pendulum clock. The escapement mechanism of the clock imparts an impulse for each swing direction, which keeps the pendulum oscillating at the resonance frequency. Among nature's observed autonomous oscillators, examples are the quasi-biennial oscillation and bimonthly oscillation of the Earth atmosphere, and the 22-year solar oscillation. The oscillations have been simulated in numerical models without external time dependent source, and in Section 2 we summarize the results. Specifically, we shall discuss the nonlinearities that are involved in generating the oscillations, and the processes that produce the periodicities. In biology, insects have flight muscles, which function autonomously with wing frequencies that far exceed the animals' neural capacity; Stretch-activation of muscle contraction is the mechanism that produces the high frequency oscillation of insect flight, discussed in Section 3. The same mechanism is also invoked to explain the functioning of the cardiac muscle. In Section 4, we present a tutorial review of the cardio-vascular system, heart anatomy, and muscle cell physiology, leading up to Starling's Law of the Heart, which supports our notion that the human heart is also a nonlinear oscillator. In Section 5, we offer a broad perspective of the tenuous links between the fluid dynamical oscillators and the human heart physiology.

  14. Uruguay - Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface weather observation forms for 26 stations in Uruguay. Period of record 1896-2005, with two to eight observations per day. Files created through a...

  15. Weather Information Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

  16. Oil Rig Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather observations taken at offshore platforms along the United States coastlines. The majority are located in oil-rich areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of...

  17. Waste glass weathering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.

    1994-01-01

    The weathering of glass is reviewed by examining processes that affect the reaction of commercial, historical, natural, and nuclear waste glass under conditions of contact with humid air and slowly dripping water, which may lead to immersion in nearly static solution. Radionuclide release data from weathered glass under conditions that may exist in an unsaturated environment are presented and compared to release under standard leaching conditions. While the comparison between the release under weathering and leaching conditions is not exact, due to variability of reaction in humid air, evidence is presented of radionuclide release under a variety of conditions. These results suggest that both the amount and form of radionuclide release can be affected by the weathering of glass

  18. Cape Kennedy Weather Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Digitized data taken from original weather observations taken at Cape Kennedy Air Force Station, Florida. Elements recorded are wind speed and direction,...

  19. Winter weather demand considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  20. NOAA Weather Radio

    Science.gov (United States)

    del tiempo incluido. Si eres quieres ser avisado de las advertencias y relojes de día o de noche, un Weather Radio relojes son independientes o basadas en el Condado (parroquia basados en Luisiana), aunque

  1. Space Weather Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of space weather datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the World Data Service for Geophysics,...

  2. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  3. Winter Weather: Indoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  4. Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  5. Winter Weather Checklists

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  6. Winter Weather: Frostbite

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  7. Surface Weather Observations Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather Observation 1001 Forms is a set of historical manuscript records for the period 1893-1948. The collection includes two very similar form types: Form...

  8. A memristor-based third-order oscillator: beyond oscillation

    KAUST Repository

    Talukdar, Abdul Hafiz Ibne

    2012-10-06

    This paper demonstrates the first third-order autonomous linear time variant circuit realization that enhances parametric oscillation through the usage of memristor in conventional oscillators. Although the output has sustained oscillation, the linear features of the conventional oscillators become time dependent. The poles oscillate in nonlinear behavior due to the oscillation of memristor resistance. The mathematical formulas as well as SPICE simulations are introduced for the memristor-based phase shift oscillator showing a great matching.

  9. A memristor-based third-order oscillator: beyond oscillation

    KAUST Repository

    Talukdar, Abdul Hafiz Ibne; Radwan, Ahmed G.; Salama, Khaled N.

    2012-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the first third-order autonomous linear time variant circuit realization that enhances parametric oscillation through the usage of memristor in conventional oscillators. Although the output has sustained oscillation, the linear features of the conventional oscillators become time dependent. The poles oscillate in nonlinear behavior due to the oscillation of memristor resistance. The mathematical formulas as well as SPICE simulations are introduced for the memristor-based phase shift oscillator showing a great matching.

  10. Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka

    2004-01-01

    Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...

  11. Perturbation method of studying the EI Niño oscillation with two parameters by using the delay sea-air oscillator model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du Zeng-Ji; Lin Wan-Tao; Mo Jia-Qi

    2012-01-01

    The EI Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, we develop an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation using the ENSO model. Based on a class of the oscillator of the ENSO model, a approximate solution of the corresponding problem is studied employing the perturbation method

  12. Oscillations of disks

    CERN Document Server

    Kato, Shoji

    2016-01-01

    This book presents the current state of research on disk oscillation theory, focusing on relativistic disks and tidally deformed disks. Since the launch of the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) in 1996, many high-frequency quasiperiodic oscillations (HFQPOs) have been observed in X-ray binaries. Subsequently, similar quasi-periodic oscillations have been found in such relativistic objects as microquasars, ultra-luminous X-ray sources, and galactic nuclei. One of the most promising explanations of their origin is based on oscillations in relativistic disks, and a new field called discoseismology is currently developing. After reviewing observational aspects, the book presents the basic characteristics of disk oscillations, especially focusing on those in relativistic disks. Relativistic disks are essentially different from Newtonian disks in terms of several basic characteristics of their disk oscillations, including the radial distributions of epicyclic frequencies. In order to understand the basic processes...

  13. Casebook on application for weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-11-01

    This book introduces the excellent cases on application using weather at the industry, research center and public office. It lists the names and application cases in 2008 and 2009, which includes research on decease in risk by weather in the industry by Sam sung institute of safety and environment, service on weather information for people by KT, application with weather information in the flight by Korean air, use on weather information for prevention of disasters by Masan city hall, upgrade for business with weather marketing, center for river forecast in NOAA and the case using weather management for high profit margins.

  14. Oscillations in stellar atmospheres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, A.; Ringuelet, A.E.; Fontenla, J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Atmospheric excitation and propagation of oscillations are analyzed for typical pulsating stars. The linear, plane-parallel approach for the pulsating atmosphere gives a local description of the phenomenon. From the local analysis of oscillations, the minimum frequencies are obtained for radially propagating waves. The comparison of the minimum frequencies obtained for a variety of stellar types is in good agreement with the observed periods of the oscillations. The role of the atmosphere in the globar stellar pulsations is thus emphasized. 7 refs

  15. Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorđević Bojan S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

  16. The Oscillator Principle of Nature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Erik

    2012-01-01

    Oscillators are found on all levels in Nature. The general oscillator concept is defined and investigated. Oscillators may synchronize into fractal patterns. Apparently oscillators are the basic principle in Nature. The concepts of zero and infinite are discussed. Electronic manmade oscillators...

  17. Weather In Some Islands

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王良华

    2007-01-01

    There are four seasons in a year. When spring comes, the weather is mild(温和的). Summer comes after spring. Summer is the hottest season of the year. Autumn follows summer. It is the best season of the year. Winter is the coldest season of the year. Some islands(岛) have their own particular(特别的) seasons because their weather is very much affected(影响) by the oceans(海洋) around them. In Britain, winter is not very cold and summer is not very hot.

  18. On the Dirac oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, R. de Lima

    2007-01-01

    In the present work we obtain a new representation for the Dirac oscillator based on the Clifford algebra C 7. The symmetry breaking and the energy eigenvalues for our model of the Dirac oscillator are studied in the non-relativistic limit. (author)

  19. A Conspiracy of Oscillators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjorth, Poul G.

    2008-01-01

    We discuss nonlinear mechanical systems containing several oscillators whose frequecies are all much higher than frequencies associated with the remaining degrees of freedom. In this situation a near constant of the motion, an adiabatic invariant, exists which is the sum of all the oscillator...... actions. The phenomenon is illustrated, and calculations of the small change of the adiabatic invariant is outlined....

  20. Synchronization of hyperchaotic oscillators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tamasevicius, A.; Cenys, A.; Mykolaitis, G.

    1997-01-01

    Synchronization of chaotic oscillators is believed to have promising applications in secure communications. Hyperchaotic systems with multiple positive Lyapunov exponents (LEs) have an advantage over common chaotic systems with only one positive LE. Three different types of hyperchaotic electronic...... oscillators are investigated demonstrating synchronization by means of only one properly selected variable....

  1. The sensitivity of snowfall to weather states over Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norin, Lars; Devasthale, Abhay; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.

    2017-09-01

    For a high-latitude country like Sweden snowfall is an important contributor to the regional water cycle. Furthermore, snowfall impacts surface properties, affects atmospheric thermodynamics, has implications for traffic and logistics management, disaster preparedness, and also impacts climate through changes in surface albedo and turbulent heat fluxes. For Sweden it has been shown that large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, or weather states, are important for precipitation variability. Although the link between atmospheric circulation patterns and precipitation has been investigated for rainfall there are no studies focused on the sensitivity of snowfall to weather states over Sweden.In this work we investigate the response of snowfall to eight selected weather states. These weather states consist of four dominant wind directions together with cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation patterns and enhanced positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The presented analysis is based on multiple data sources, such as ground-based radar measurements, satellite observations, spatially interpolated in situ observations, and reanalysis data. The data from these sources converge to underline the sensitivity of falling snow over Sweden to the different weather states.In this paper we examine both average snowfall intensities and snowfall accumulations associated with the different weather states. It is shown that, even though the heaviest snowfall intensities occur during conditions with winds from the south-west, the largest contribution to snowfall accumulation arrives with winds from the south-east. Large differences in snowfall due to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation are shown as well as a strong effect of cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation patterns. Satellite observations are used to reveal the vertical structures of snowfall during the different weather states.

  2. Dress for the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen, Nicole J.; Smetana, Lara K.

    2010-01-01

    "If someone were traveling to our area for the first time during this time of year, what would you tell them to bring to wear? Why?" This question was used to engage students in a guided-inquiry unit about how climate differs from weather. In this lesson, students explored local and national data sets to give "travelers" advice…

  3. Climate, weather, and hops

    Science.gov (United States)

    As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

  4. Weather and Flight Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Scott

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews some of the weather hazards involved with flight testing. Some of the hazards reviewed are: turbulence, icing, thunderstorms and winds and windshear. Maps, pictures, satellite pictures of the meteorological phenomena and graphs are included. Also included are pictures of damaged aircraft.

  5. Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelby A. Mason; Peter E. Hamlington; Benjamin D. Hamlington; W. Matt Jolly; Chad M. Hoffman

    2017-01-01

    The effects of climate oscillations on spatial and temporal variations in wildland fire potential in the continental U.S. are examined from 1979 to 2015 using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). The CSEOF analysis isolates effects associated with the modulated annual cycle and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that, in early...

  6. Weatherization Works: Weatherization Assistance Program Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The United States demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  7. Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) is an integrated database of severe weather records for the United States. SWDI enables a user to search through a variety...

  8. North America Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Maps contains a surface analysis comprised of plotted weather station observations, isobars indicating low and high-pressure...

  9. Geography and Weather: Mountain Meterology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogil, H. Michael; Collins, H. Thomas

    1990-01-01

    Provided are 26 ideas to help children explore the effects of mountains on the weather. Weather conditions in Nepal and Colorado are considered separately. Nine additional sources of information are listed. (CW)

  10. Observation of Quasichanneling Oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wistisen, T. N.; Mikkelsen, R. E.; Uggerhoj, University I.; Wienands, University; Markiewicz, T. W.

    2017-01-01

    Here, we report on the first experimental observations of quasichanneling oscillations, recently seen in simulations and described theoretically. Although above-barrier particles penetrating a single crystal are generally seen as behaving almost as in an amorphous substance, distinct oscillation peaks nevertheless appear for particles in that category. The quasichanneling oscillations were observed at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory by aiming 20.35 GeV positrons and electrons at a thin silicon crystal bent to a radius of R = 0.15 m, exploiting the quasimosaic effect. For electrons, two relatively faint quasichanneling peaks were observed, while for positrons, seven quasichanneling peaks were clearly identified.

  11. LSND neutrino oscillation results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Louis, W.C.

    1996-01-01

    In the past several years, a number of experiments have searched for neutrino oscillations, where a neutrino of one type (say bar ν μ ) spontaneously transforms into a neutrino of another type (say bar ν e ). For this phenomenon to occur, neutrinos must be massive and the apparent conservation law of lepton families must be violated. In 1995 the LSND experiment published data showing candidate events that are consistent with bar ν μ oscillations. Additional data are reported here which provide stronger evidence for neutrino oscillations

  12. Neutrino Oscillation Physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kayser, Boris

    2014-01-01

    To complement the neutrino-physics lectures given at the 2011 International School on Astro Particle Physics devoted to Neutrino Physics and Astrophysics (ISAPP 2011; Varenna, Italy), at the 2011 European School of High Energy Physics (ESHEP 2011; Cheila Gradistei, Romania), and, in modified form, at other summer schools, we present here a written description of the physics of neutrino oscillation. This description is centered on a new way of deriving the oscillation probability. We also provide a brief guide to references relevant to topics other than neutrino oscillation that were covered in the lectures

  13. Neutrino Oscillation Physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kayser, Boris [Fermilab (United States)

    2014-07-01

    To complement the neutrino-physics lectures given at the 2011 International School on Astro Particle Physics devoted to Neutrino Physics and Astrophysics (ISAPP 2011; Varenna, Italy), at the 2011 European School of High Energy Physics (ESHEP 2011; Cheila Gradistei, Romania), and, in modified form, at other summer schools, we present here a written description of the physics of neutrino oscillation. This description is centered on a new way of deriving the oscillation probability. We also provide a brief guide to references relevant to topics other than neutrino oscillation that were covered in the lectures.

  14. Oscillator, neutron modulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agaisse, R.; Leguen, R.; Ombredane, D.

    1960-01-01

    The authors present a mechanical device and an electronic control circuit which have been designed to sinusoidally modulate the reactivity of the Proserpine atomic pile. The mechanical device comprises an oscillator and a mechanism assembly. The oscillator is made of cadmium blades which generate the reactivity oscillation. The mechanism assembly comprises a pulse generator for cycle splitting, a gearbox and an engine. The electronic device comprises or performs pulse detection, an on-off device, cycle pulse shaping, phase separation, a dephasing amplifier, electronic switches, counting scales, and control devices. All these elements are briefly presented

  15. Relationships between the Antarctic oscillation, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and ENSO, and consequences for rainfall analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Pohl, B

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available range, it is not unambiguously related to the global-scale Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity, with in particular no coherent phase relationship with the MJO index. Moreover, in the high southern latitudes, the MJO-associated anomaly fields do...

  16. Central American Flying Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    CEILING; VISIBILITY; WIND, PRECIPITATIDNc’--." HAZE, SMOKE, TEMPORALE ; MOUNTAIN WAVE; MILITARY METEOROLOGY. 4k- / ’A. bstract; Asummary of~ing weather...1 The " Temporale " ....................................1 Mountain Waves ......................I...............1 Severe Thunderstorms...charts. The for any part of Central America lies in having: Tactical Pilota.e Chart series , produced by the Df -.nse Mapping Agency, is * A good, basic

  17. World Weather Extremes. Revision,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    Ext r-,ncs, Weekl Weather and Crop Bull, Vol. 43, No. 9, pp. 6-8, 27 Feb 56. 21A. ntoli, La Piu Alta Temperatura del Mondo," [The HiLhest Temperi... Temperatura in Libia", Boll Soc Geogr Ita’iana, ser. 8, Vol. 7, pp. 59-71, 1954. 23J. Gentilli, "Libyan Climate", Geograph Rev, V0 l. 45, No. 2, p. 269 S" Apr

  18. OSCILLATING FILAMENTS. I. OSCILLATION AND GEOMETRICAL FRAGMENTATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gritschneder, Matthias; Heigl, Stefan; Burkert, Andreas, E-mail: gritschm@usm.uni-muenchen.de [University Observatory Munich, LMU Munich, Scheinerstrasse 1, D-81679 Munich (Germany)

    2017-01-10

    We study the stability of filaments in equilibrium between gravity and internal as well as external pressure using the grid-based AMR code RAMSES. A homogeneous, straight cylinder below a critical line mass is marginally stable. However, if the cylinder is bent, such as with a slight sinusoidal perturbation, an otherwise stable configuration starts to oscillate, is triggered into fragmentation, and collapses. This previously unstudied behavior allows a filament to fragment at any given scale, as long as it has slight bends. We call this process “geometrical fragmentation.” In our realization, the spacing between the cores matches the wavelength of the sinusoidal perturbation, whereas up to now, filaments were thought to be only fragmenting on the characteristic scale set by the mass-to-line ratio. Using first principles, we derive the oscillation period as well as the collapse timescale analytically. To enable a direct comparison with observations, we study the line-of-sight velocity for different inclinations. We show that the overall oscillation pattern can hide the infall signature of cores.

  19. Again on neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilenky, S.M.; Pontecorvo, B.

    1976-01-01

    The general case is treated of a weak interaction theory in which a term violating lepton charges is present. In such a scheme the particles with definite masses are Majorana neutrinos (2N if in the weak interaction participate N four-component neutrinos). Neutrino oscillations are discussed and it is shown that the minimum average intensity at the earth of solar neutrinos is 1/2N of the intensity expected when oscillations are absent

  20. Density-wave oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belblidia, L.A.; Bratianu, C.

    1979-01-01

    Boiling flow in a steam generator, a water-cooled reactor, and other multiphase processes can be subject to instabilities. It appears that the most predominant instabilities are the so-called density-wave oscillations. They can cause difficulties for three main reasons; they may induce burnout; they may cause mechanical vibrations of components; and they create system control problems. A comprehensive review is presented of experimental and theoretical studies concerning density-wave oscillations. (author)

  1. Oscillators and operational amplifiers

    OpenAIRE

    Lindberg, Erik

    2005-01-01

    A generalized approach to the design of oscillators using operational amplifiers as active elements is presented. A piecewise-linear model of the amplifier is used so that it make sense to investigate the eigenvalues of the Jacobian of the differential equations. The characteristic equation of the general circuit is derived. The dynamic nonlinear transfer characteristic of the amplifier is investigated. Examples of negative resistance oscillators are discussed.

  2. Chaotic solar oscillations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blacher, S; Perdang, J [Institut d' Astrophysique, B-4200 Cointe-Ougree (Belgium)

    1981-09-01

    A numerical experiment on Hamiltonian oscillations demonstrates the existence of chaotic motions which satisfy the property of phase coherence. It is observed that the low-frequency end of the power spectrum of such motions is remarkably similar in structure to the low-frequency SCLERA spectra. Since the smallness of the observed solar amplitudes is not a sufficient mathematical ground for inefficiency of non-linear effects the possibility of chaos among solar oscillations cannot be discarded a priori.

  3. Case for neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramond, P.

    1982-01-01

    The building of a machine capable of producing an intense, well-calibrated beam of muon neutrinos is regarded by particle physicists with keen interest because of its ability of studying neutrino oscillations. The possibility of neutrino oscillations has long been recognized, but it was not made necessary on theoretical or experimental grounds; one knew that oscillations could be avoided if neutrinos were massless, and this was easily done by the conservation of lepton number. The idea of grand unification has led physicists to question the existence (at higher energies) of global conservation laws. The prime examples are baryon-number conservation, which prevents proton decay, and lepton-number conservation, which keeps neutrinos massless, and therefore free of oscillations. The detection of proton decay and neutrino oscillations would therefore be an indirect indication of the idea of Grand Unification, and therefore of paramount importance. Neutrino oscillations occur when neutrinos acquire mass in such a way that the neutrino mass eigenstates do not match the (neutrino) eigenstates produced by the weak interactions. We shall study the ways in which neutrinos can get mass, first at the level of the standard SU 2 x U 1 model, then at the level of its Grand Unification Generalizations

  4. NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Weather Awareness Floods, Wind Chill, Tornadoes, Heat... Education Weather Terms, Teachers, Statistics government web resources and services. Natural Hazard Statistics Statistics U.S. Summaries 78-Year List of Severe Weather Fatalities Preliminary Hazardous Weather Statistics for 2017 Now

  5. Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... English Español Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth / For Parents / Can the Weather Affect My ... Asthma? Print Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? Yes. Weather conditions can bring on asthma symptoms. ...

  6. Space Weather Services of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  7. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

  8. The Weather in Richmond

    OpenAIRE

    Harless, William Edwin

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: The Weather in Richmond is a short documentary about the Oilers, the football team at Richmond High School in downtown Richmond, California, as they struggle in 2012 with the legacy of winning no games, with the exception of a forfeit, in two years. The video documents the city of Richmond’s poverty and violence, but it also is an account of the city’s cultural diversity, of the city’s industrial history and of the hopes of some of the people who grow up there. The...

  9. Combating bad weather

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta

    2015-01-01

    Every year lives and properties are lost in road accidents. About one-fourth of these accidents are due to low vision in foggy weather. At present, there is no algorithm that is specifically designed for the removal of fog from videos. Application of a single-image fog removal algorithm over each video frame is a time-consuming and costly affair. It is demonstrated that with the intelligent use of temporal redundancy, fog removal algorithms designed for a single image can be extended to the real-time video application. Results confirm that the presented framework used for the extension of the

  10. Weather Balloon Ascent Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denny, Mark

    2016-05-01

    The physics of a weather balloon is analyzed. The surprising aspect of the motion of these balloons is that they ascend to great altitudes (typically 35 km) at a more or less constant rate. Such behavior is not surprising near the ground—say for a helium-filled party balloon rising from street level to the top of the Empire State building—but it is unexpected for a balloon that rises to altitudes where the air is rarefied. We show from elementary physical laws why the ascent rate is approximately constant.

  11. NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

  12. Vodcasting Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins Petersen, Carolyn; Erickson, P. J.; Needles, M.

    2009-01-01

    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of vodcasts (video podcasts) produced by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, MA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, MA). This paper discusses the production and distribution of the series via Webcast, Youtube, and other avenues. It also presents preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness and outreach of the project through feedback from both formal and information education venues. The vodcast series is linked to the NASA Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology project award "Multi-Instrument Investigation of Inner-Magnetospheric/Ionosphere Disturbances.” It is being carried out by Principal Investigator Dr. John Foster, under the auspices of NASA Grant # NNX06AB86G. The research involves using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) observations to study the location, extent, and duration of perturbations within stormtime ionospheric electric fields at mid- to low latitudes. It combines ground-based global positioning system (GPS) TEC data, incoherent scatter radar measurements of the mid-latitude ionospheric state, and DMSP satellite observations to characterize conditions which lead to severe low-latitude ionospheric perturbations. Each vodcast episode covers a certain aspect of space weather and the research program.

  13. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Eric J

    2012-12-18

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  14. Solar weather monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Hochedez

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time monitoring to assess quickly and reliably the severity of any potentially geoeffective solar event. Both research and forecasting could incorporate more observations in order to feed case studies and data assimilation respectively. Numerical models will result in better predictions of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP events. We review the data types available to monitor solar activity and interplanetary conditions. They come from space missions and ground observatories and range from sequences of dopplergrams, magnetograms, white-light, chromospheric, coronal, coronagraphic and radio images, to irradiance and in-situ time-series. Their role is summarized together with indications about current and future solar monitoring instruments.

  15. Weathering of rock 'Ginger'

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    One of the more unusual rocks at the site is Ginger, located southeast of the lander. Parts of it have the reddest color of any material in view, whereas its rounded lobes are gray and relatively unweathered. These color differences are brought out in the inset, enhanced at the upper right. In the false color image at the lower right, the shape of the visible-wavelength spectrum (related to the abundance of weathered ferric iron minerals) is indicated by the hue of the rocks. Blue indicates relatively unweathered rocks. Typical soils and drift, which are heavily weathered, are shown in green and flesh tones. The very red color in the creases in the rock surface correspond to a crust of ferric minerals. The origin of the rock is uncertain; the ferric crust may have grown underneath the rock, or it may cement pebbles together into a conglomerate. Ginger will be a target of future super-resolution studies to better constrain its origin.Mars Pathfinder is the second in NASA's Discovery program of low-cost spacecraft with highly focused science goals. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, developed and manages the Mars Pathfinder mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) was developed by the University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory under contract to JPL. Peter Smith is the Principal Investigator. JPL is an operating division of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

  16. Do muons oscillate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolgov, A.D.; Morozov, A.Yu.; Okun, L.B.; Schepkin, M.G.

    1997-01-01

    We develop a theory of the EPR-like effects due to neutrino oscillations in the π→μν decays. Its experimental implications are space-time correlations of the neutrino and muon when they are both detected, while the pion decay point is not fixed. However, the more radical possibility of μ-oscillations in experiments where only muons are detected (as suggested in hep-ph/9509261), is ruled out. We start by discussing decays of monochromatic pions, and point out a few ''paradoxes''. Then we consider pion wave packets, solve the ''paradoxes'', and show that the formulas for μν correlations can be transformed into the usual expressions, describing neutrino oscillations, as soon as the pion decay point is fixed. (orig.)

  17. Space Weather- Physics and Effects

    CERN Document Server

    Bothmer, Volker

    2007-01-01

    This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

  18. Oscillations in neutron stars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeye, Gudrun Kristine

    1999-01-01

    We have studied radial and nonradial oscillations in neutron stars, both in a general relativistic and non-relativistic frame, for several different equilibrium models. Different equations of state were combined, and our results show that it is possible to distinguish between the models based on their oscillation periods. We have particularly focused on the p-, f-, and g-modes. We find oscillation periods of II approx. 0.1 ms for the p-modes, II approx. 0.1 - 0.8 ms for the f-modes and II approx. 10 - 400 ms for the g-modes. For high-order (l → 4) f-modes we were also able to derive a formula that determines II l+1 from II l and II l-1 to an accuracy of 0.1%. Further, for the radial f-mode we find that the oscillation period goes to infinity as the maximum mass of the star is approached. Both p-, f-, and g-modes are sensitive to changes in the central baryon number density n c , while the g-modes are also sensitive to variations in the surface temperature. The g-modes are concentrated in the surface layer, while p- and f-modes can be found in all parts of the star. The effects of general relativity were studied, and we find that these are important at high central baryon number densities, especially for the p- and f-modes. General relativistic effects can therefore not be neglected when studying oscillations in neutron stars. We have further developed an improved Cowling approximation in the non-relativistic frame, which eliminates about half of the gap in the oscillation periods that results from use of the ordinary Cowling approximation. We suggest to develop an improved Cowling approximation also in the general relativistic frame. (Author)

  19. Oscillations in neutron stars

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeye, Gudrun Kristine

    1999-07-01

    We have studied radial and nonradial oscillations in neutron stars, both in a general relativistic and non-relativistic frame, for several different equilibrium models. Different equations of state were combined, and our results show that it is possible to distinguish between the models based on their oscillation periods. We have particularly focused on the p-, f-, and g-modes. We find oscillation periods of II approx. 0.1 ms for the p-modes, II approx. 0.1 - 0.8 ms for the f-modes and II approx. 10 - 400 ms for the g-modes. For high-order (l (>{sub )} 4) f-modes we were also able to derive a formula that determines II{sub l+1} from II{sub l} and II{sub l-1} to an accuracy of 0.1%. Further, for the radial f-mode we find that the oscillation period goes to infinity as the maximum mass of the star is approached. Both p-, f-, and g-modes are sensitive to changes in the central baryon number density n{sub c}, while the g-modes are also sensitive to variations in the surface temperature. The g-modes are concentrated in the surface layer, while p- and f-modes can be found in all parts of the star. The effects of general relativity were studied, and we find that these are important at high central baryon number densities, especially for the p- and f-modes. General relativistic effects can therefore not be neglected when studying oscillations in neutron stars. We have further developed an improved Cowling approximation in the non-relativistic frame, which eliminates about half of the gap in the oscillation periods that results from use of the ordinary Cowling approximation. We suggest to develop an improved Cowling approximation also in the general relativistic frame. (Author)

  20. Oscillating acoustic streaming jet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moudjed, Brahim; Botton, Valery; Henry, Daniel; Millet, Severine; Ben Hadid, Hamda; Garandet, Jean-Paul

    2014-01-01

    The present paper provides the first experimental investigation of an oscillating acoustic streaming jet. The observations are performed in the far field of a 2 MHz circular plane ultrasound transducer introduced in a rectangular cavity filled with water. Measurements are made by Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) in horizontal and vertical planes near the end of the cavity. Oscillations of the jet appear in this zone, for a sufficiently high Reynolds number, as an intermittent phenomenon on an otherwise straight jet fluctuating in intensity. The observed perturbation pattern is similar to that of former theoretical studies. This intermittently oscillatory behavior is the first step to the transition to turbulence. (authors)

  1. Oscillating Finite Sums

    KAUST Repository

    Alabdulmohsin, Ibrahim M.

    2018-03-07

    In this chapter, we use the theory of summability of divergent series, presented earlier in Chap. 4, to derive the analogs of the Euler-Maclaurin summation formula for oscillating sums. These formulas will, in turn, be used to perform many remarkable deeds with ease. For instance, they can be used to derive analytic expressions for summable divergent series, obtain asymptotic expressions of oscillating series, and even accelerate the convergence of series by several orders of magnitude. Moreover, we will prove the notable fact that, as far as the foundational rules of summability calculus are concerned, summable divergent series behave exactly as if they were convergent.

  2. Brownian parametric oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zerbe, Christine; Jung, Peter; Hänggi, Peter

    1994-05-01

    We discuss the stochastic dynamics of dissipative, white-noise-driven Floquet oscillators, characterized by a time-periodic stiffness. Thus far, little attention has been paid to these exactly solvable nonstationary systems, although they carry a rich potential for several experimental applications. Here, we calculate and discuss the mean values and variances, as well as the correlation functions and the Floquet spectrum. As one main result, we find for certain parameter values that the fluctuations of the position coordinate are suppressed as compared to the equilibrium value of a harmonic oscillator (parametric squeezing).

  3. Friedel oscillations in graphene

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lawlor, J. A.; Power, S. R.; Ferreira, M.S.

    2013-01-01

    Symmetry breaking perturbations in an electronically conducting medium are known to produce Friedel oscillations in various physical quantities of an otherwise pristine material. Here we show in a mathematically transparent fashion that Friedel oscillations in graphene have a strong sublattice...... asymmetry. As a result, the presence of impurities and/or defects may impact the distinct graphene sublattices very differently. Furthermore, such an asymmetry can be used to explain the recent observations that nitrogen atoms and dimers are not randomly distributed in graphene but prefer to occupy one...

  4. Proprioceptive evoked gamma oscillations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnfred, S.M.; Hansen, Lars Kai; Parnas, J.

    2007-01-01

    A proprioceptive stimulus consisting of a weight change of a handheld load has recently been shown to elicit an evoked potential. Previously, somatosensory gamma oscillations have only been evoked by electrical stimuli. We conjectured that a natural proprioceptive stimulus also would be able...... to evoke gamma oscillations. EEG was recorded using 64 channels in 14 healthy subjects. In each of three runs a stimulus of 100 g load increment in each hand was presented in 120 trials. Data were wavelet transformed and runs collapsed. Inter-trial phase coherence (ITPC) was computed as the best measure...

  5. Oscillating Finite Sums

    KAUST Repository

    Alabdulmohsin, Ibrahim M.

    2018-01-01

    In this chapter, we use the theory of summability of divergent series, presented earlier in Chap. 4, to derive the analogs of the Euler-Maclaurin summation formula for oscillating sums. These formulas will, in turn, be used to perform many remarkable deeds with ease. For instance, they can be used to derive analytic expressions for summable divergent series, obtain asymptotic expressions of oscillating series, and even accelerate the convergence of series by several orders of magnitude. Moreover, we will prove the notable fact that, as far as the foundational rules of summability calculus are concerned, summable divergent series behave exactly as if they were convergent.

  6. Oscillators from nonlinear realizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozyrev, N.; Krivonos, S.

    2018-02-01

    We construct the systems of the harmonic and Pais-Uhlenbeck oscillators, which are invariant with respect to arbitrary noncompact Lie algebras. The equations of motion of these systems can be obtained with the help of the formalism of nonlinear realizations. We prove that it is always possible to choose time and the fields within this formalism in such a way that the equations of motion become linear and, therefore, reduce to ones of ordinary harmonic and Pais-Uhlenbeck oscillators. The first-order actions, that produce these equations, can also be provided. As particular examples of this construction, we discuss the so(2, 3) and G 2(2) algebras.

  7. Oscillation Baselining and Analysis Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-03-27

    PNNL developed a new tool for oscillation analysis and baselining. This tool has been developed under a new DOE Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) Project (GM0072 - “Suite of open-source applications and models for advanced synchrophasor analysis”) and it is based on the open platform for PMU analysis. The Oscillation Baselining and Analysis Tool (OBAT) performs the oscillation analysis and identifies modes of oscillations (frequency, damping, energy, and shape). The tool also does oscillation event baselining (fining correlation between oscillations characteristics and system operating conditions).

  8. Artificial changes of weather conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, I.D.; Vasil'ev, I.V.; Fedulina, I.N.; Zakizhan, Z.Z.; Khalimov, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    Unfavorable weather conditions have undesirable ecological consequences, causes remarkable economical damage. In the paper authors consider physical factors and technical methods of influence on cloud formation. (author)

  9. Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

    1964-01-01

    Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

  10. From excitability to oscillations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Postnov, D. E.; Neganova, A. Y.; Jacobsen, J. C. B.

    2013-01-01

    One consequence of cell-to-cell communication is the appearance of synchronized behavior, where many cells cooperate to generate new dynamical patterns. We present a simple functional model of vasomotion based on the concept of a two-mode oscillator with dual interactions: via relatively slow dif...

  11. Neutrino oscillation experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camilleri, L.

    1996-01-01

    Neutrino oscillation experiments (ν μ →ν e and ν μ →ν τ ) currently being performed at accelerators are reviewed. Future plans for short and long base-line experiments are summarized. (author) 10 figs., 2 tabs., 29 refs

  12. A simple violin oscillator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, R. T.

    1976-01-01

    For acoustic tests the violin is driven laterally at the bridge by a small speaker of the type commonly found in pocket transistor radios. An audio oscillator excites the tone which is picked up by a sound level meter. Gross patterns of vibration modes are obtained by the Chladni method.

  13. Nonlinearity in oscillating bridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filippo Gazzola

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We first recall several historical oscillating bridges that, in some cases, led to collapses. Some of them are quite recent and show that, nowadays, oscillations in suspension bridges are not yet well understood. Next, we survey some attempts to model bridges with differential equations. Although these equations arise from quite different scientific communities, they display some common features. One of them, which we believe to be incorrect, is the acceptance of the linear Hooke law in elasticity. This law should be used only in presence of small deviations from equilibrium, a situation which does not occur in widely oscillating bridges. Then we discuss a couple of recent models whose solutions exhibit self-excited oscillations, the phenomenon visible in real bridges. This suggests a different point of view in modeling equations and gives a strong hint how to modify the existing models in order to obtain a reliable theory. The purpose of this paper is precisely to highlight the necessity of revisiting the classical models, to introduce reliable models, and to indicate the steps we believe necessary to reach this target.

  14. Integrated optoelectronic oscillator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jian; Hao, Tengfei; Li, Wei; Domenech, David; Baños, Rocio; Muñoz, Pascual; Zhu, Ninghua; Capmany, José; Li, Ming

    2018-04-30

    With the rapid development of the modern communication systems, radar and wireless services, microwave signal with high-frequency, high-spectral-purity and frequency tunability as well as microwave generator with light weight, compact size, power-efficient and low cost are increasingly demanded. Integrated microwave photonics (IMWP) is regarded as a prospective way to meet these demands by hybridizing the microwave circuits and the photonics circuits on chip. In this article, we propose and experimentally demonstrate an integrated optoelectronic oscillator (IOEO). All of the devices needed in the optoelectronic oscillation loop circuit are monolithically integrated on chip within size of 5×6cm 2 . By tuning the injection current to 44 mA, the output frequency of the proposed IOEO is located at 7.30 GHz with phase noise value of -91 dBc/Hz@1MHz. When the injection current is increased to 65 mA, the output frequency can be changed to 8.87 GHz with phase noise value of -92 dBc/Hz@1MHz. Both of the oscillation frequency can be slightly tuned within 20 MHz around the center oscillation frequency by tuning the injection current. The method about improving the performance of IOEO is carefully discussed at the end of in this article.

  15. The variational spiked oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguilera-Navarro, V.C.; Ullah, N.

    1992-08-01

    A variational analysis of the spiked harmonic oscillator Hamiltonian -d 2 / d x 2 + x 2 + δ/ x 5/2 , δ > 0, is reported in this work. A trial function satisfying Dirichlet boundary conditions is suggested. The results are excellent for a large range of values of the coupling parameter. (author)

  16. Neutrino oscillation experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camilleri, L [European Organization for Nuclear Research, Geneva (Switzerland)

    1996-11-01

    Neutrino oscillation experiments ({nu}{sub {mu}}{yields}{nu}{sub e} and {nu}{sub {mu}}{yields}{nu}{sub {tau}}) currently being performed at accelerators are reviewed. Future plans for short and long base-line experiments are summarized. (author) 10 figs., 2 tabs., 29 refs.

  17. Terminal weather information management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Alfred T.

    1990-01-01

    Since the mid-1960's, microburst/windshear events have caused at least 30 aircraft accidents and incidents and have killed more than 600 people in the United States alone. This study evaluated alternative means of alerting an airline crew to the presence of microburst/windshear events in the terminal area. Of particular interest was the relative effectiveness of conventional and data link ground-to-air transmissions of ground-based radar and low-level windshear sensing information on microburst/windshear avoidance. The Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator located at Ames Research Center was employed in a line oriented simulation of a scheduled round-trip airline flight from Salt Lake City to Denver Stapleton Airport. Actual weather en route and in the terminal area was simulated using recorded data. The microburst/windshear incident of July 11, 1988 was re-created for the Denver area operations. Six experienced airline crews currently flying scheduled routes were employed as test subjects for each of three groups: (1) A baseline group which received alerts via conventional air traffic control (ATC) tower transmissions; (2) An experimental group which received alerts/events displayed visually and aurally in the cockpit six miles (approx. 2 min.) from the microburst event; and (3) An additional experimental group received displayed alerts/events 23 linear miles (approx. 7 min.) from the microburst event. Analyses of crew communications and decision times showed a marked improvement in both situation awareness and decision-making with visually displayed ground-based radar information. Substantial reductions in the variability of decision times among crews in the visual display groups were also found. These findings suggest that crew performance will be enhanced and individual differences among crews due to differences in training and prior experience are significantly reduced by providing real-time, graphic display of terminal weather hazards.

  18. Integrating interannual climate variability forecasts into weather-indexed crop insurance. The case of Malawi, Kenya and Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicarelli, M.; Giannini, A.; Osgood, D.

    2009-12-01

    In this study we explore the potential for re-insurance schemes built on regional climatic forecasts. We focus on micro-insurance contracts indexed on precipitation in 9 villages in Kenya, Tanzania (Eastern Africa) and Malawi (Southern Africa), and analyze the precipitation patterns and payouts resulting from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inability to manage future climate risk represents a “poverty trap” for several African regions. Weather shocks can potentially destabilize not only household, but also entire countries. Governments in drought-prone countries, donors and relief agencies are becoming aware of the importance to develop an ex-ante risk management framework for weather risk. Joint efforts to develop innovative mechanisms to spread and pool risk such as microinsurance and microcredit are currently being designed in several developing countries. While ENSO is an important component in modulating the rainfall regime in tropical Africa, the micro-insurance experiments currently under development to address drought risk among smallholder farmers in this region do not take into account ENSO monitoring or forecasting yet. ENSO forecasts could be integrated in the contracts and reinsurance schemes could be designed at the continental scale taking advantage of the different impact of ENSO on different regions. ENSO is associated to a bipolar precipitation pattern in Southern and Eastern Africa. La Niña years (i.e. Cold ENSO Episodes) are characterized by dry climate in Eastern Africa and wet climate in Southern Africa. During El Niño (or Warm Episode) the precipitation dipole is inverted, and Eastern Africa experiences increased probability for above normal rainfall (Halpert and Ropelewski, 1992, Journal of Climate). Our study represents the first exercise in trying to include ENSO forecasts in micro weather index insurance contract design. We analyzed the contracts payouts with respect to climate variability. In particular (i) we simulated

  19. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 3. The Challenge of Weather Prediction Old and Modern Ways of Weather Forecasting. B N Goswami. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 3 March 1997 pp 8-15. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  20. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  1. Weatherization Assistance Program Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2018-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy e ciency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety. The Program supports 8,500 jobs and provides weatherization services to approximately 35,000 homes every year using DOE funds.

  2. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  3. GPS Estimates of Integrated Precipitable Water Aid Weather Forecasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Angelyn W.; Gutman, Seth I.; Holub, Kirk; Bock, Yehuda; Danielson, David; Laber, Jayme; Small, Ivory

    2013-01-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) meteorology provides enhanced density, low-latency (30-min resolution), integrated precipitable water (IPW) estimates to NOAA NWS (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis tration Nat ional Weather Service) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to provide improved model and satellite data verification capability and more accurate forecasts of extreme weather such as flooding. An early activity of this project was to increase the number of stations contributing to the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) GPS meteorology observing network in Southern California by about 27 stations. Following this, the Los Angeles/Oxnard and San Diego WFOs began using the enhanced GPS-based IPW measurements provided by ESRL in the 2012 and 2013 monsoon seasons. Forecasters found GPS IPW to be an effective tool in evaluating model performance, and in monitoring monsoon development between weather model runs for improved flood forecasting. GPS stations are multi-purpose, and routine processing for position solutions also yields estimates of tropospheric zenith delays, which can be converted into mm-accuracy PWV (precipitable water vapor) using in situ pressure and temperature measurements, the basis for GPS meteorology. NOAA ESRL has implemented this concept with a nationwide distribution of more than 300 "GPSMet" stations providing IPW estimates at sub-hourly resolution currently used in operational weather models in the U.S.

  4. Late Pleistocene dust dynamics and pedogenesis in Southern Eurasia - Detailed insights from the loess profile Toshan (NE Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlaminck, Stefan; Kehl, Martin; Rolf, Christian; Franz, Sven Oliver; Lauer, Tobias; Lehndorff, Eva; Frechen, Manfred; Khormali, Farhad

    2018-01-01

    susceptibility, colour and decreasing texture. Conversely, silicate weathering could not be detected, suggesting that grain-size fluctuations are a primary feature. Thus, windy and arid pleniglacial conditions in southern Eurasia were interrupted by intermittent phases of synsedimentary soil formation, in response to short-lived and relatively moist interstadials. Although the interrelation of these incipient soils, throughout southern Eurasia is afflicted with considerable restrictions, the oscillatory pattern of the Toshan LPS bears great similarity with millennial-scale oscillations recorded in limnic archives of western Asia.

  5. Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassou, Christophe

    2008-09-25

    Bridging the traditional gap between the spatio-temporal scales of weather and climate is a significant challenge facing the atmospheric community. In particular, progress in both medium-range and seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction relies on our understanding of recurrent weather patterns and the identification of specific causes responsible for their favoured occurrence, persistence or transition. Within this framework, I here present evidence that the main climate intra-seasonal oscillation in the tropics-the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-controls part of the distribution and sequences of the four daily weather regimes defined over the North Atlantic-European region in winter. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) regimes are the most affected, allowing for medium-range predictability of their phase far exceeding the limit of around one week that is usually quoted. The tropical-extratropical lagged relationship is asymmetrical. Positive NAO events mostly respond to a mid-latitude low-frequency wave train initiated by the MJO in the western-central tropical Pacific and propagating eastwards. Precursors for negative NAO events are found in the eastern tropical Pacific-western Atlantic, leading to changes along the North Atlantic storm track. Wave-breaking diagnostics tend to support the MJO preconditioning and the role of transient eddies in setting the phase of the NAO. I present a simple statistical model to quantitatively assess the potential predictability of the daily NAO index or the sign of the NAO regimes when they occur. Forecasts are successful in approximately 70 per cent of the cases based on the knowledge of the previous approximately 12-day MJO phase used as a predictor. This promising skill could be of importance considering the tight link between weather regimes and both mean conditions and the chances of extreme events occurring over Europe. These findings are useful for further stressing the need to better simulate and forecast the tropical

  6. Anharmonic oscillator and Bogoliubov transformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pattnayak, G.C.; Torasia, S.; Rath, B.

    1990-01-01

    The anharmonic oscillator occupies a cornerstone in many problems in physics. It was observed that none of the authors have tested Bogoliubov transformation to study anharmonic oscillator. The groundstate energy of the anharmonic oscillator is studied using Bogoliubov transformation and the results presented. (author)

  7. Bimodal oscillations in nephron autoregulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sosnovtseva, Olga; Pavlov, A.N.; Mosekilde, Erik

    2002-01-01

    The individual functional unit of the kidney (the nephron) displays oscillations in its pressure and flow regulation at two different time scales: fast oscillations associated with a myogenic dynamics of the afferent arteriole, and slower oscillations arising from a delay in the tubuloglomerular ...

  8. Observation and analysis of oscillations in linear accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seeman, J.T.

    1991-11-01

    This report discusses the following on oscillation in linear accelerators: Betatron Oscillations; Betatron Oscillations at High Currents; Transverse Profile Oscillations; Transverse Profile Oscillations at High Currents.; Oscillation and Profile Transient Jitter; and Feedback on Transverse Oscillations

  9. Artificial weathering of granite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silva Hermo, B.

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes a series of artificial weathering tests run on granite designed to: simulate the action of weathering agents on buildings and identify the underlying mechanisms, determine the salt resistance of different types of rock; evaluate consolidation and water-repellent treatment durability; and confirm hypotheses about the origin of salts such as gypsum that are often found in granite buildings. Salt crystallization tests were also conducted, using sodium chloride, sodium sulphate, calcium sulphate and seawater solutions. One of these tests was conducted in a chamber specifically designed to simulate salt spray weathering and another in an SO2 chamber to ascertain whether granite is subject to sulphation. The test results are analyzed and discussed, along with the shortcomings of each type of trial as a method for simulating the decay observed in monuments. The effect of factors such as wet-dry conditions, type of saline solution and the position of the planes of weakness on the type of decay is also addressed.En este trabajo se hace una síntesis de varios ensayos de alteración artificial realizados con rocas graníticas. Estos ensayos tenían distintos objetivos: reproducir las formas de alteración encontradas en los edificios para llegar a conocer los mecanismos que las generan, determinar la resistencia de las diferentes rocas a la acción de las sales, evaluar la durabilidad de tratamientos de consolidación e hidrofugación y constatar hipótesis acerca del origen de algunas sales, como el yeso, que aparecen frecuentemente en edificios graníticos. En los ensayos de cristalización de sales se utilizaron disoluciones de cloruro de sodio, sulfato de sodio, sulfato de calcio y agua de mar. Uno de estos ensayos se llevó a cabo en una cámara especialmente diseñada para reproducir la alteración por aerosol marino y otro se realizó en una cámara de SO2, con el objeto de comprobar si en rocas graníticas se puede producir

  10. Reactor oscillator - Proposal of the organisation for oscillator operation; Reaktorski oscilator - Predlog organizacije rada na oscilatoru

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lolic, B; Loloc, B [Institute of Nuclear Sciences Boris Kidric, Laboratorija za fiziku reaktora, Vinca, Beograd (Serbia and Montenegro)

    1961-12-15

    The organizational structure for operating the reactor with the reactor oscillator describes the duties of the reactor operators; staff responsible for operating the oscillator who are responsible for measurements, preparation of the samples and further treatment of the obtained results.

  11. Quenching oscillating behaviors in fractional coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhongkui; Xiao, Rui; Yang, Xiaoli; Xu, Wei

    2018-03-01

    Oscillation quenching has been widely studied during the past several decades in fields ranging from natural sciences to engineering, but investigations have so far been restricted to oscillators with an integer-order derivative. Here, we report the first study of amplitude death (AD) in fractional coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators with partial and/or complete conjugate couplings to explore oscillation quenching patterns and dynamics. It has been found that the fractional-order derivative impacts the AD state crucially. The area of the AD state increases along with the decrease of the fractional-order derivative. Furthermore, by introducing and adjusting a limiting feedback factor in coupling links, the AD state can be well tamed in fractional coupled oscillators. Hence, it provides one an effective approach to analyze and control the oscillating behaviors in fractional coupled oscillators.

  12. Pattern formation in arrays of chemical oscillators

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Chemical oscillators; phase flip; oscillation death. PACS No. 05.45 .... array oscillate (with varying amplitudes and frequencies), while the others experience oscillation death .... Barring the boundary cells, one observes near phase flip and near ...

  13. Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

  14. The Southern Oscillation, Hypoxia, and the Eastern Pacific Tuna Fishery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, D.; Kiefer, D.; Lam, C. H.; Harrison, D. P.; Armstrong, E. M.; Hinton, M.; Luo, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Eastern Pacific tuna fishery, which is one of the world's major fisheries, covers thousands of square kilometers. The vessels of this fishery are registered in more than 30 nations and largely target bigeye (Thunnus obesus), skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and yellowfin (T. albacores) tuna. In both the Pelagic Habitat Analysis Module project, which is sponsored by NASA, and the Fishscape project, which is sponsored by NSF, we have attempted to define the habitat of the three species by matching a 50 year time series on fish catch and effort with oceanographic information obtained from satellite imagery and from a global circulation model. The fishery time series, which was provided by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, provided spatial maps of catch and effort at monthly time steps; the satellite imagery of the region consisted of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, and height from GHRSST, SEAWiFS, and AVISO products, and the modeled flow field at selected depths was output from ECCO-92 simulations from 1992 to present. All information was integrated and analyzed within the EASy marine geographic information system. This GIS will also provides a home for the Fishscape spatial simulation model of the coupled dynamics of the ocean, fish, fleets, and markets. This model will then be applied to an assessment of the potential ecological and economic impacts of climate change, technological advances in fleet operations, and increases in fuel costs. We have determined by application of EOF analysis that the ECCO-2 simulation of sea surface height fits well with that of AVISO imagery; thus, if driven properly by predictions of future air-sea exchange, the model should provide good estimates of circulation patterns. We have also found that strong El Nino events lead to strong recruitment of all three species and strong La Nina events lead to weak recruitment. Finally, we have found that the general spatial distribution of the Eastern Pacific fishing grounds matches well with the spatial distribution of the hypoxic waters at a depth of 150 meters and the surface concentration of chlorophyll a, and monthly variations in the spatial distribution of the catch and effort are closely tied to sea surface temperature. We will conclude by discussing the reasons for these relationships and speculation on how these relations will help guide assessments of the impact of global warming on the fishery.

  15. Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2013-04-01

    Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water

  16. Urbanization Alters the Influence of Weather and an Index of Forest Productivity on Avian Community Richness and Guild Abundance in the Seattle Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Shryock

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Fluctuations in weather and forest productivity influence the abundance and richness of bird populations, however in a rapidly urbanizing landscape the relative importance of each factor may vary. We assessed this possibility in the Seattle, WA, USA region by correlating 10 years of bird richness and relative abundance of nine guilds indicative of their tolerance of human development, migration, diet and use of human food subsidies with an annual index of forest productivity (vegetation greenness derived from a 250 m resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI product from the MODIS satellite and weather (variation in the Oceanic Niño Index, which estimates the strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a major driver of local temperature and precipitation. We found that variation in NDVI exerted a strong influence on the richness of the avian community and the abundance of guilds in landscapes undergoing active development, but was less influential in areas of established housing development or forested reserves. Relative to NDVI, weather was much less influential on the abundance of guilds at actively changing sites, and slightly more influential in forest reserves and established developments. Following the warm winter and during the dry summer associated with a strong El Niño, migrants and herbivores declined in changing landscapes, insectivores declined in established developments, and herbivores declined while synanthropic species increased in reserves. These changes may presage the effects of climate change in the Pacific Northwest, which are expected to be similar to El Niño conditions. To buffer these changes in native bird communities, planners, developers, regulators, and home owners should minimize the loss of vegetation during development and attempt to quickly achieve mature landscaping that preferably provides food and shelter for birds.

  17. Entanglement in neutrino oscillations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blasone, M.; Dell' Anno, F.; De Siena, S.; Illuminati, F. [Universita degli Studi di Salerno Via Ponte don Melillon, Dipt. di Matematica e Informatica, Fisciano SA (Italy); INFN Sezione di Napoli, Gruppo collegato di Salerno - Baronissi SA (Italy); Dell' Anno, F.; De Siena, S.; Illuminati, F. [CNR-INFM Coherentia - Napoli (Italy); Blasone, M. [ISI Foundation for Scientific Interchange, Torino (Italy)

    2009-03-15

    Flavor oscillations in elementary particle physics are related to multimode entanglement of single-particle states. We show that mode entanglement can be expressed in terms of flavor transition probabilities, and therefore that single-particle entangled states acquire a precise operational characterization in the context of particle mixing. We treat in detail the physically relevant cases of two- and three-flavor neutrino oscillations, including the effective measure of CP violation. We discuss experimental schemes for the transfer of the quantum information encoded in single-neutrino states to spatially delocalized two-flavor charged-lepton states, thus showing, at least in principle, that single-particle entangled states of neutrino mixing are legitimate physical resources for quantum information tasks. (authors)

  18. Nonlinear (Anharmonic Casimir Oscillator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Habibollah Razmi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We want to study the dynamics of a simple linear harmonic micro spring which is under the influence of the quantum Casimir force/pressure and thus behaves as a (an nonlinear (anharmonic Casimir oscillator. Generally, the equation of motion of this nonlinear micromechanical Casimir oscillator has no exact solvable (analytical solution and the turning point(s of the system has (have no fixed position(s; however, for particular values of the stiffness of the micro spring and at appropriately well-chosen distance scales and conditions, there is (are approximately sinusoidal solution(s for the problem (the variable turning points are collected in a very small interval of positions. This, as a simple and elementary plan, may be useful in controlling the Casimir stiction problem in micromechanical devices.

  19. Entanglement in neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blasone, M.; Dell'Anno, F.; De Siena, S.; Illuminati, F.; Dell'Anno, F.; De Siena, S.; Illuminati, F.; Blasone, M.

    2009-01-01

    Flavor oscillations in elementary particle physics are related to multimode entanglement of single-particle states. We show that mode entanglement can be expressed in terms of flavor transition probabilities, and therefore that single-particle entangled states acquire a precise operational characterization in the context of particle mixing. We treat in detail the physically relevant cases of two- and three-flavor neutrino oscillations, including the effective measure of CP violation. We discuss experimental schemes for the transfer of the quantum information encoded in single-neutrino states to spatially delocalized two-flavor charged-lepton states, thus showing, at least in principle, that single-particle entangled states of neutrino mixing are legitimate physical resources for quantum information tasks. (authors)

  20. Acoustics waves and oscillations

    CERN Document Server

    Sen, S.N.

    2013-01-01

    Parameters of acoustics presented in a logical and lucid style Physical principles discussed with mathematical formulations Importance of ultrasonic waves highlighted Dispersion of ultrasonic waves in viscous liquids explained This book presents the theory of waves and oscillations and various applications of acoustics in a logical and simple form. The physical principles have been explained with necessary mathematical formulation and supported by experimental layout wherever possible. Incorporating the classical view point all aspects of acoustic waves and oscillations have been discussed together with detailed elaboration of modern technological applications of sound. A separate chapter on ultrasonics emphasizes the importance of this branch of science in fundamental and applied research. In this edition a new chapter ''Hypersonic Velocity in Viscous Liquids as revealed from Brillouin Spectra'' has been added. The book is expected to present to its readers a comprehensive presentation of the subject matter...

  1. Discrete repulsive oscillator wavefunctions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz, Carlos A; Rueda-Paz, Juvenal; Wolf, Kurt Bernardo

    2009-01-01

    For the study of infinite discrete systems on phase space, the three-dimensional Lorentz algebra and group, so(2,1) and SO(2,1), provide a discrete model of the repulsive oscillator. Its eigenfunctions are found in the principal irreducible representation series, where the compact generator-that we identify with the position operator-has the infinite discrete spectrum of the integers Z, while the spectrum of energies is a double continuum. The right- and left-moving wavefunctions are given by hypergeometric functions that form a Dirac basis for l 2 (Z). Under contraction, the discrete system limits to the well-known quantum repulsive oscillator. Numerical computations of finite approximations raise further questions on the use of Dirac bases for infinite discrete systems.

  2. Different responses of influenza epidemic to weather factors among Shanghai, Hong Kong, and British Columbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xi-Ling; Yang, Lin; He, Dai-Hai; Chiu, Alice Py; Chan, Kwok-Hung; Chan, King-Pan; Zhou, Maigeng; Wong, Chit-Ming; Guo, Qing; Hu, Wenbiao

    2017-06-01

    Weather factors have long been considered as key sources for regional heterogeneity of influenza seasonal patterns. As influenza peaks coincide with both high and low temperature in subtropical cities, weather factors may nonlinearly or interactively affect influenza activity. This study aims to assess the nonlinear and interactive effects of weather factors with influenza activity and compare the responses of influenza epidemic to weather factors in two subtropical regions of southern China (Shanghai and Hong Kong) and one temperate province of Canada (British Columbia). Weekly data on influenza activity and weather factors (i.e., mean temperature and relative humidity (RH)) were obtained from pertinent government departments for the three regions. Absolute humidity (AH) was measured by vapor pressure (VP), which could be converted from temperature and RH. Generalized additive models were used to assess the exposure-response relationship between weather factors and influenza virus activity. Interactions of weather factors were further assessed by bivariate response models and stratification analyses. The exposure-response curves of temperature and VP, but not RH, were consistent among three regions/cities. Bivariate response model revealed a significant interactive effect between temperature (or VP) and RH (P weather factors in developing a universal model to explain seasonal outbreaks of influenza. However, further research is needed to assess the association between weather factors and influenza activity in a wider context of social and environmental conditions.

  3. Decadal changes of weather types in the alpine region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stefanicki, G.; Talkner, P.; Weber, R.O. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    The annual occurrence of different weather types of Schuepp`s synoptic classification in the Alpine region has changed since the beginning of its recording 1945. The annual frequency (number of days) of convective types has increased and that of advective types has decreased. In parallel the number of long-lasting convective episodes rose and the number of long-lasting advective episodes lessened. Most of the change took place in winter. The frequencies of different weather types and the annual mean of certain meteorological parameters are significantly correlated. Moreover, there is a strong interdependence between the subclass of high pressure types and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. (author) 3 figs., 3 refs.

  4. Neutrino Masses and Oscillations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva. Audiovisual Unit; Treille, Daniel

    2002-01-01

    This course will not cover its subject in the customary way. The emphasis will be on the simple theoretical concepts (helicity, handedness, chirality, Majorana masses) which are obscure in most of the literature, and on the quantum mechanics of oscillations, that ALL books get wrong. Which, hopefully, will not deter me from discussing some of the most interesting results from the labs and from the cosmos.

  5. Oscillations in quasineutral plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grenier, E.

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the limit, as the vacuum electric permittivity goes to zero, of a plasma physics system, deduced from the Vlasov-Poisson system for special initial data (distribution functions which are analytic in the space variable, with compact support in velocity), a limit also called open-quotes quasineutral regimeclose quotes of the plasma, and the related oscillations of the electric field, with high frequency in time. 20 refs

  6. Density oscillations within hadrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, R.; Barshay, S.

    1976-01-01

    In models of extended hadrons, in which small bits of matter carrying charge and effective mass exist confined within a medium, oscillations in the matter density may occur. A way of investigating this possibility experimentally in high-energy hadron-hadron elastic diffraction scattering is suggested, and the effect is illustrated by examining some existing data which might be relevant to the question [fr

  7. Atmospheric circulation in northern hemisphere and north atlantic oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Вадимович Холопцев

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Conditions under which statistical connections of interannual changes of repitition duration periods in Northern hemisphere of elementary circulation mechanisms associated to meridional northern and meridional southern groups with variations of North Atlantic oscillation are significant were revealed. It is shown, that the characteristics changes of these connections taking place in modern period can be caused by distribution changes of distribution of sea surface temperatures

  8. Neutrino Oscillations Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogli, Gianluigi

    2005-06-01

    We review the status of the neutrino oscillations physics, with a particular emphasis on the present knowledge of the neutrino mass-mixing parameters. We consider first the νμ → ντ flavor transitions of atmospheric neutrinos. It is found that standard oscillations provide the best description of the SK+K2K data, and that the associated mass-mixing parameters are determined at ±1σ (and NDF = 1) as: Δm2 = (2.6 ± 0.4) × 10-3 eV2 and sin 2 2θ = 1.00{ - 0.05}{ + 0.00} . Such indications, presently dominated by SK, could be strengthened by further K2K data. Then we point out that the recent data from the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory, together with other relevant measurements from solar and reactor neutrino experiments, in particular the KamLAND data, convincingly show that the flavor transitions of solar neutrinos are affected by Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein (MSW) effects. Finally, we perform an updated analysis of two-family active oscillations of solar and reactor neutrinos in the standard MSW case.

  9. U.S. Hail Frequency and the Global Wind Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gensini, Vittorio A.; Allen, John T.

    2018-02-01

    Changes in Earth relative atmospheric angular momentum can be described by an index known as the Global Wind Oscillation. This global index accounts for changes in Earth's atmospheric budget of relative angular momentum through interactions of tropical convection anomalies, extratropical dynamics, and engagement of surface torques (e.g., friction and mountain). It is shown herein that U.S. hail events are more (less) likely to occur in low (high) atmospheric angular momentum base states when excluding weak Global Wind Oscillation days, with the strongest relationships found in the boreal spring and fall. Severe, significant severe, and giant hail events are more likely to occur during Global Wind Oscillation phases 8, 1, 2, and 3 during the peak of U.S. severe weather season. Lower frequencies of hail events are generally found in Global Wind Oscillation phases 4-7 but vary based on Global Wind Oscillation amplitude and month. In addition, probabilistic anomalies of atmospheric ingredients supportive of hail producing supercell thunderstorms closely mimic locations of reported hail frequency, helping to corroborate report results.

  10. Imprints of climate signals in a 204 year 18O tree-ring record of Nothofagus pumilio from Perito Moreno Glacier, southern Patagonia (50°S).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grießinger, Jussi; Langhamer, Lukas; Schneider, Christoph; Saß, Björn-Lukas; Steger, David; Skvarca, Pedro; Braun, Matthias H.; Meier, Wolfgang J.-H.; Srur, Ana M.; Hochreuther, Philipp

    2018-04-01

    A 204 year-long record of 18O in tree-ring cellulose of southern beech (Nothofagus pumilio) from a site near Perito Moreno Glacier (50°S) in southern Patagonia was established to assess its potential for a climate reconstruction. The annually resolved oxygen isotope chronology is built out of seven individual tree-ring 18O series with a significant mean inter-series correlation (r = 0.61) and is the first of its kind located in Southern America south of 50°S. Over a common period from 1960 to 2013 of available stationary and high-resolution gridded CRU TS v. 4.01 data, the 18O chronology exhibits a strong sensitivity towards hydroclimatic as well as temperature parameters as revealed by correlation analyses. Among these, positive correlations with maximum temperature in the first part of the summer season (CRU rONDJ = 0.51, pAmerica. The modulation of positive and negative anomalies within this series can be interlinked to changes in moisture source origin as revealed by backward trajectory modeling. Additionally, these anomalies can be directly associated to positive or negative phases of the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAOI) and therefore the strength of the Westerlies. Aligned by the analysis on the influence of different main weather types on the 18O chronology it is shown that such time-series hold the potential to additionally capture their respective influence and change during the last centuries.

  11. Asymptotic solving method for sea-air coupled oscillator ENSO model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Xian-Chun; Yao Jing-Sun; Mo Jia-Qi

    2012-01-01

    The ENSO is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interaction. In this article, we create an asymptotic solving method for the nonlinear system of the ENSO model. The asymptotic solution is obtained. And then we can furnish weather forecasts theoretically and other behaviors and rules for the atmosphere-ocean oscillator of the ENSO. (general)

  12. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  13. Chemical Weathering on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolotov, Mikhail

    2018-01-01

    Chemical and phase compositions of Venus's surface could reflect history of gas- and fluid-rock interactions, recent and past climate changes, and a loss of water from the Earth's sister planet. The concept of chemical weathering on Venus through gas-solid type reactions has been established in 1960s after the discovery of hot and dense CO2-rich atmosphere inferred from Earth-based and Mariner 2 radio emission data. Initial works suggested carbonation, hydration, and oxidation of exposed igneous rocks and a control (buffering) of atmospheric gases by solid-gas type chemical equilibria in the near-surface lithosphere. Calcite, quartz, wollastonite, amphiboles, and Fe oxides were considered likely secondary minerals. Since the late 1970s, measurements of trace gases in the sub-cloud atmosphere by Pioneer Venus and Venera entry probes and Earth-based infrared spectroscopy doubted the likelihood of hydration and carbonation. The H2O gas content appeared to be low to allow a stable existence of hydrated and a majority of OH-bearing minerals. The concentration of SO2 was too high to allow the stability of calcite and Ca-rich silicates with respect to sulfatization to CaSO4. In 1980s, the supposed ongoing consumption of atmospheric SO2 to sulfates gained support by the detection of an elevated bulk S content at Venera and Vega landing sites. The induced composition of the near-surface atmosphere implied oxidation of ferrous minerals to magnetite and hematite, consistent with the infrared reflectance of surface materials. The likelihood of sulfatization and oxidation has been illustrated in modeling experiments at simulated Venus conditions. Venus's surface morphology suggests that hot surface rocks and fines of mainly mafic composition contacted atmospheric gases during several hundreds of millions years since a global volcanic resurfacing. Some exposed materials could have reacted at higher and lower temperatures in a presence of diverse gases at different altitudinal

  14. Tropopause characteristics and variability from 11 yr of SHADOZ observations in the southern tropics and subtropics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Sivakumar, V

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available a statistical model that accounts for natural variations expressed in El Nino–Southern Oscillation, the quasi-biennial oscillation, and the Indian Ocean dipole. The decadal trend estimation shows no statistically significant trend for the CPT and LRT...

  15. Asymptotic solution for the El Niño time delay sea—air oscillator model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mo Jia-Qi; Lin Wan-Tao; Lin Yi-Hua

    2011-01-01

    A sea—air oscillator model is studied using the time delay theory. The aim is to find an asymptotic solving method for the El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) model. Employing the perturbed method, an asymptotic solution of the corresponding problem is obtained. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly and the related physical quantities. (general)

  16. Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease Updated:Sep 16,2015 Th is winter ... and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Cardiovascular Conditions • Conditions Home • Arrhythmia and Atrial Fibrillation • Cardiac ...

  17. Detection of Weather Radar Clutter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    classification and use a range of different techniques and input data. The first method uses external information from multispectral satellite images to detect clutter. The information in the visual, near-infrared, and infrared parts of the spectrum can be used to distinguish between cloud and cloud-free areas......Weather radars provide valuable information on precipitation in the atmosphere but due to the way radars work, not only precipitation is observed by the weather radar. Weather radar clutter, echoes from non-precipitating targets, occur frequently in the data, resulting in lowered data quality....... Especially in the application of weather radar data in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting a high data quality is important. Clutter detection is one of the key components in achieving this goal. This thesis presents three methods for detection of clutter. The methods use supervised...

  18. KZHU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  19. Practical Weathering for Geology Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodder, A. Peter

    1990-01-01

    The design and data management of an activity to study weathering by increasing the rate of mineral dissolution in a microwave oven is described. Data analysis in terms of parabolic and first-order kinetics is discussed. (CW)

  20. Northern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Daily Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Part I consists of plotted and analyzed daily maps of sea-level and 500-mb maps for 0300, 0400, 1200, 1230, 1300, and 1500...

  1. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    around the sun. If weather is also governed by physical laws, why ... radiate according to Planck's law (higher the temperature of the black body ..... First law of thermodynamics. Relates ... (Third Edition) Charles E Merrill Publishing. Company.

  2. Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  3. KZOA Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  4. KZJX Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  5. KZBW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  6. KZFW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  7. KZSE Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  8. KZME Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  9. KZDV Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  10. KZNY Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  11. KZDC Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  12. KZAU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  13. US Weather Bureau Storm Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Bureau and US Army Corps and other reports of storms from 1886-1955. Hourly precipitation from recording rain gauges captured during heavy rain, snow,...

  14. Southern blotting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, T

    2001-05-01

    Southern blotting is the transfer of DNA fragments from an electrophoresis gel to a membrane support (the properties and advantages of the different types of membrane, transfer buffer, and transfer method are discussed in detail), resulting in immobilization of the DNA fragments, so the membrane carries a semipermanent reproduction of the banding pattern of the gel. After immobilization, the DNA can be subjected to hybridization analysis, enabling bands with sequence similarity to a labeled probe to be identified. This appendix describes Southern blotting via upward capillary transfer of DNA from an agarose gel onto a nylon or nitrocellulose membrane, using a high-salt transfer buffer to promote binding of DNA to the membrane. With the high-salt buffer, the DNA becomes bound to the membrane during transfer but not permanently immobilized. Immobilization is achieved by UV irradiation (for nylon) or baking (for nitrocellulose). A Support Protocol describes how to calibrate a UV transilluminator for optimal UV irradiation of a nylon membrane. An alternate protocol details transfer using nylon membranes and an alkaline buffer, and is primarily used with positively charged nylon membranes. The advantage of this combination is that no post-transfer immobilization step is required, as the positively charged membrane binds DNA irreversibly under alkaline transfer conditions. The method can also be used with neutral nylon membranes but less DNA will be retained. A second alternate protocol describes a transfer method based on a different transfer-stack setup. The traditional method of upward capillary transfer of DNA from gel to membrane described in the first basic and alternate protocols has certain disadvantages, notably the fact that the gel can become crushed by the weighted filter papers and paper towels that are laid on top of it. This slows down the blotting process and may reduce the amount of DNA that can be transferred. The downward capillary method described in

  15. Using ISCCP Weather States to Decompose Cloud Radiative Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreopoulos, L.; Rossow, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    The presentation will examine the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect CRE (aka "cloud radiative forcing") at the top-of-the-atmosphere and surface of ISCCP weather states (aka "cloud regimes") in three distinct geographical zones, one tropical and two mid-latitude. Our goal is to understand and quantify the contribution of the different cloud regimes to the planetary radiation budget. In the tropics we find that the three most convectively active states are the ones with largest SW, LW and net TOA CRE contributions to the overall daytime tropical CRE budget. They account for 59%, 71% and 55% of the total CRE, respectively. The boundary layer-dominated weather states account for only 34% of the total SW CRE and 41% of the total net CRE, so to focus only on them in cloud feedback studies may be imprudent. We also find that in both the northern and southern midlatitude zones only two weather states, the first and third most convectively active with large amounts of nimbostratus-type clouds, contribute ",40% to both the SW and net TOA CRE budgets, highlighting the fact that cloud regimes associated with frontal systems are not only important for weather (precipitation) but also for climate (radiation budget). While all cloud regimes in all geographical zones have a slightly larger SFC than TOA SW CRE, implying cooling of the surface and slight warming of the atmosphere, their LW radiative effects are more subtle: in the tropics the weather states with plentiful high clouds warm the atmosphere while those with copious amounts of low clouds cool the atmosphere. In both midlatitude zones only the weather states with peak cloud fractions at levels above 440 mbar warm the atmosphere while all the rest cool it. These results make the connection of the contrasting CRE effects to the atmospheric dynamics more explicit - "storms" tend to warm the atmosphere whereas fair weather clouds cool it, suggesting a positive feedback of clouds on weather systems. The

  16. Quasioptical Josephson oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wengler, M.J.; Pance, A.; Liu, B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper discusses the authors' work with large 2-dimensional arrays of Josephson junctions for submillimeter power generation. The basic design of the Quasioptical Josephson Oscillator (QJO) is presented. The reasons for each design decision are discussed. Superconducting devices have not yet been fabricated, but scale models and computer simulations have been done. A method for characterizing array rf coupling structures is described, and initial results with this method are presented. Microwave scale models of the radiation structure are built and a series of measurements are made with a network analyzer

  17. Modeling microtubule oscillations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jobs, E.; Wolf, D.E.; Flyvbjerg, H.

    1997-01-01

    Synchronization of molecular reactions in a macroscopic volume may cause the volume's physical properties to change dynamically and thus reveal much about the reactions. As an example, experimental time series for so-called microtubule oscillations are analyzed in terms of a minimal model...... for this complex polymerization-depolymerization cycle. The model reproduces well the qualitatively different time series that result from different experimental conditions, and illuminates the role and importance of individual processes in the cycle. Simple experiments are suggested that can further test...... and define the model and the polymer's reaction cycle....

  18. Oscillations in nonlinear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Hale, Jack K

    2015-01-01

    By focusing on ordinary differential equations that contain a small parameter, this concise graduate-level introduction to the theory of nonlinear oscillations provides a unified approach to obtaining periodic solutions to nonautonomous and autonomous differential equations. It also indicates key relationships with other related procedures and probes the consequences of the methods of averaging and integral manifolds.Part I of the text features introductory material, including discussions of matrices, linear systems of differential equations, and stability of solutions of nonlinear systems. Pa

  19. Neutrino oscillations at LAMPF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlini, R.; Choi, C.; Donohue, J.

    1985-01-01

    Work at Argonne continues on the construction of the neutrino oscillation experiment (E645). Construction of detector supports and active shield components were completed at the Provo plant of the principal contractor for the project (the Pittsburgh-Des Moines Corporation). Erection of the major experimental components was completed at the LAMPF experimental site in mid-March 1985. Work continues on the tunnel which will house the detector. Construction of detector components (scintillators and proportional drift tubes) is proceeding at Ohio State University and Louisiana State University. Consolidation of these components into the 20-ton neutrino detector is beginning at LAMPF

  20. Theory of oscillators

    CERN Document Server

    Andronov, Aleksandr Aleksandrovich; Vitt, Aleksandr Adolfovich

    1966-01-01

    Theory of Oscillators presents the applications and exposition of the qualitative theory of differential equations. This book discusses the idea of a discontinuous transition in a dynamic process. Organized into 11 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the simplest type of oscillatory system in which the motion is described by a linear differential equation. This text then examines the character of the motion of the representative point along the hyperbola. Other chapters consider examples of two basic types of non-linear non-conservative systems, namely, dissipative systems and self-

  1. Solar and stellar oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fossat, E.

    1981-01-01

    We try to explain in simple words what a stellar oscillation is, what kind of restoring forces and excitation mechanisms can be responsible for its occurence, what kind of questions the theoretician asks to the observer and what kind of tools the latter is using to look for the answers. A selected review of the most striking results obtained in the last few years in solar seismology and the present status of their consequences on solar models is presented. A brief discussion on the expected extension towards stellar seismology will end the paper. A selected bibliography on theory as well as observations and recent papers is also included. (orig.)

  2. Coupled nonlinear oscillators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandra, J; Scott, A C

    1983-01-01

    Topics discussed include transitions in weakly coupled nonlinear oscillators, singularly perturbed delay-differential equations, and chaos in simple laser systems. Papers are presented on truncated Navier-Stokes equations in a two-dimensional torus, on frequency locking in Josephson point contacts, and on soliton excitations in Josephson tunnel junctions. Attention is also given to the nonlinear coupling of radiation pulses to absorbing anharmonic molecular media, to aspects of interrupted coarse-graining in stimulated excitation, and to a statistical analysis of long-term dynamic irregularity in an exactly soluble quantum mechanical model.

  3. Brain Oscillations, Hypnosis, and Hypnotizability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Mark P; Adachi, Tomonori; Hakimian, Shahin

    2015-01-01

    This article summarizes the state-of-science knowledge regarding the associations between hypnosis and brain oscillations. Brain oscillations represent the combined electrical activity of neuronal assemblies, usually measured as specific frequencies representing slower (delta, theta, alpha) and faster (beta, gamma) oscillations. Hypnosis has been most closely linked to power in the theta band and changes in gamma activity. These oscillations are thought to play a critical role in both the recording and recall of declarative memory and emotional limbic circuits. The authors propose that this role may be the mechanistic link between theta (and perhaps gamma) oscillations and hypnosis, specifically, that the increases in theta oscillations and changes in gamma activity observed with hypnosis may underlie some hypnotic responses. If these hypotheses are supported, they have important implications for both understanding the effects of hypnosis and for enhancing response to hypnotic treatments.

  4. Bounded-oscillation Pushdown Automata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Ganty

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We present an underapproximation for context-free languages by filtering out runs of the underlying pushdown automaton depending on how the stack height evolves over time. In particular, we assign to each run a number quantifying the oscillating behavior of the stack along the run. We study languages accepted by pushdown automata restricted to k-oscillating runs. We relate oscillation on pushdown automata with a counterpart restriction on context-free grammars. We also provide a way to filter all but the k-oscillating runs from a given PDA by annotating stack symbols with information about the oscillation. Finally, we study closure properties of the defined class of languages and the complexity of the k-emptiness problem asking, given a pushdown automaton P and k >= 0, whether P has a k-oscillating run. We show that, when k is not part of the input, the k-emptiness problem is NLOGSPACE-complete.

  5. Single ICCII Sinusoidal Oscillators Employing Grounded Capacitors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. W. Horng

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Two inverting second-generation current conveyors (ICCII based sinusoidal oscillators are presented. The first sinusoidal oscillator is composed of one ICCII, two grounded capacitors and two resistors. The oscillation condition and oscillation frequency can be orthogonally controllable. The second sinusoidal oscillator is composed of one ICCII, two grounded capacitors and three resistors. The oscillation condition and oscillation frequency can be independently controllable through different resistors.

  6. Stable And Oscillating Acoustic Levitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmatz, Martin B.; Garrett, Steven L.

    1988-01-01

    Sample stability or instability determined by levitating frequency. Degree of oscillation of acoustically levitated object along axis of levitation chamber controlled by varying frequency of acoustic driver for axis above or below frequency of corresponding chamber resonance. Stabilization/oscillation technique applied in normal Earth gravity, or in absence of gravity to bring object quickly to rest at nominal levitation position or make object oscillate in desired range about that position.

  7. Isotropic oscillator: spheroidal wave functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mardoyan, L.G.; Pogosyan, G.S.; Ter-Antonyan, V.M.; Sisakyan, A.N.

    1985-01-01

    Solutions of the Schroedinger equation are found for an isotropic oscillator (10) in prolate and oblate spheroidal coordinates. It is shown that the obtained solutions turn into spherical and cylindrical bases of the isotropic oscillator at R→0 and R→ infinity (R is the dimensional parameter entering into the definition of prolate and oblate spheroidal coordinates). The explicit form is given for both prolate and oblate basis of the isotropic oscillator for the lowest quantum states

  8. Neutrino oscillations. Theory and experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beshtoev, Kh.M.

    2001-01-01

    Theoretical schemes on neutrino oscillations are considered. The experimental data on neutrino oscillations obtained in the Super-Kamiokande (Japan) and SNO (Canada) experiments are given. Comparison of these data with the predictions obtained in the theoretical schemes is done. Conclusion is made that the experimental data confirm only the scheme with transitions (oscillations) between aromatic ν e -, ν μ -, ν τ - neutrinos with maximal angle mixings. (author)

  9. Chemotaxis and Actin Oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodenschatz, Eberhard; Hsu, Hsin-Fang; Negrete, Jose; Beta, Carsten; Pumir, Alain; Gholami, Azam; Tarantola, Marco; Westendorf, Christian; Zykov, Vladimir

    Recently, self-oscillations of the cytoskeletal actin have been observed in Dictyostelium, a model system for studying chemotaxis. Here we report experimental results on the self-oscillation mechanism and the role of regulatory proteins and myosin II. We stimulate cells rapidly and periodically by using photo un-caging of the chemoattractant in a micro-fluidic device and measured the cellular responses. We found that the response amplitude grows with stimulation strength only in a very narrow region of stimulation, after which the response amplitude reaches a plateau. Moreover, the frequency-response is not constant but rather varies with the strength of external stimuli. To understand the underlying mechanism, we analyzed the polymerization and de-polymerization time in the single cell level. Despite of the large cell-to-cell variability, we found that the polymerization time is independent of external stimuli and the de-polymerization time is prolonged as the stimulation strength increases. Our conclusions will be summarized and the role of noise in the signaling network will be discussed. German Science Foundation CRC 937.

  10. The Wien Bridge Oscillator Family

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Erik

    2006-01-01

    A tutorial in which the Wien bridge family of oscillators is defined and investigated. Oscillators which do not fit into the Barkhausen criterion topology may be designed. A design procedure based on initial complex pole quality factor is reported. The dynamic transfer characteristic of the ampli......A tutorial in which the Wien bridge family of oscillators is defined and investigated. Oscillators which do not fit into the Barkhausen criterion topology may be designed. A design procedure based on initial complex pole quality factor is reported. The dynamic transfer characteristic...

  11. Unstable oscillators based hyperchaotic circuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murali, K.; Tamasevicius, A.; G. Mykolaitis, A.

    1999-01-01

    A simple 4th order hyperchaotic circuit with unstable oscillators is described. The circuit contains two negative impedance converters, two inductors, two capacitors, a linear resistor and a diode. The Lyapunov exponents are presented to confirm hyperchaotic nature of the oscillations in the circ...... in the circuit. The performance of the circuit is investigated by means of numerical integration of appropriate differential equations, PSPICE simulations, and hardware experiment.......A simple 4th order hyperchaotic circuit with unstable oscillators is described. The circuit contains two negative impedance converters, two inductors, two capacitors, a linear resistor and a diode. The Lyapunov exponents are presented to confirm hyperchaotic nature of the oscillations...

  12. Heat exchanger with oscillating flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scotti, Stephen J. (Inventor); Blosser, Max L. (Inventor); Camarda, Charles J. (Inventor)

    1993-01-01

    Various heat exchange apparatuses are described in which an oscillating flow of primary coolant is used to dissipate an incident heat flux. The oscillating flow may be imparted by a reciprocating piston, a double action twin reciprocating piston, fluidic oscillators or electromagnetic pumps. The oscillating fluid flows through at least one conduit in either an open loop or a closed loop. A secondary flow of coolant may be used to flow over the outer walls of at least one conduit to remove heat transferred from the primary coolant to the walls of the conduit.

  13. Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

  14. Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

  15. Analysis of Shield Construction in Spherical Weathered Granite Development Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Quan; Li, Peigang; Gong, Shuhua

    2018-01-01

    The distribution of spherical weathered bodies (commonly known as "boulder") in the granite development area directly affects the shield construction of urban rail transit engineering. This paper is based on the case of shield construction of granite globular development area in Southern China area, the parameter control in shield machine selection and shield advancing during the shield tunneling in this special geological environment is analyzed. And it is suggested that shield machine should be selected for shield construction of granite spherical weathered zone. Driving speed, cutter torque, shield machine thrust, the amount of penetration and the speed of the cutter head of shield machine should be controlled when driving the boulder formation, in order to achieve smooth excavation and reduce the disturbance to the formation.

  16. Basic causes of amplitude modulation in climatic/weather parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1987-11-01

    The continuous interaction between the Earth's spinning motion and energy from the Sun gives rise to some (heat) energy oscillations in the Earth-atmosphere system (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986a; 1986b). Recent results of large scale analysis of East African climatic records have proved that these oscillations significantly link the Sun to climatic/weather variations by systematically modulating key climatic/weather parameters like rainfall and air temperature (Njau, 1987a; 1987b; 1987c; 1987e; 1987f). In this paper, we re-develop the latter proof using a very different approach based upon theoretical analysis. The analysis has confirmed a general law suggested earlier (Njau, 1987d), that, with an exception of the diurnal cycle, any permanent cycle in the net solar energy incident upon a given part of the Earth-Atmosphere system gives rise to a quasi-permanent cycle whose period is approximately twice that of the former. Quasi-biennial as well as double sunspot cycles are shown to be a possible result of this general law. (author). 35 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

  17. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  18. Weather Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Bobriková

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on valuation of a weather derivative with payoffs depending on temperature. We use historical data from the weather station in the Slovak town Košice to obtain unique prices of option contracts in an incomplete market. Numerical examples of prices of some contracts are presented, using the Burn analysis. We provide an example of how a weather contract can be designed to hedge the financial risk of a suboptimal temperature condition. The comparative comparison of the selected option hedging strategies has shown the best results for the producers in agricultural industries who hedges against an unfavourable weather conditions. The results of analysis proved that by buying put option or call option, the farmer establishes the highest payoff in the case of temperature decrease or increase. The Long Straddle Strategy is the most expensive but is available to the farmer who hedges against a high volatility in temperature movement. We conclude with the findings that weather derivatives could be useful tools to diminish the financial losses for agricultural industries highly dependent for temperature.

  19. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    OpenAIRE

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europ...

  20. Reactor oscillator - I - III, Part I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lolic, B.

    1961-12-01

    Project 'Reactor oscillator' covers the following activities: designing reactor oscillators for reactors RA and RB with detailed engineering drawings; constructing and mounting of the oscillator; designing and constructing the appropriate electronic equipment for the oscillator; measurements at the RA and RB reactors needed for completing the oscillator construction

  1. Assessment of the Teleconnection Between El Nino Southern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cluster analysis grouped the rainfall data into three clusters namely Coastal South, Middle belt and Sahel North, while Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data from 1988 to 2013 was retrieved from National Ocean Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as updated by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

  2. Time domain oscillating poles: Stability redefined in Memristor based Wien-oscillators

    KAUST Repository

    Talukdar, Abdul Hafiz Ibne; Radwan, Ahmed G.; Salama, Khaled N.

    2012-01-01

    poles. The idea is verified using a Memristor based Wien oscillator. Sustained oscillations are observed without having the poles of the system fixed on the imaginary axis and the oscillating behavior of the system poles is reported. The oscillating

  3. Damping of Coherent oscillations

    CERN Document Server

    Vos, L

    1996-01-01

    Damping of coherent oscillations by feedback is straightforward in principle. It has been a vital ingredient for the safe operation of accelerators since a long time. The increasing dimensions and beam intensities of the new generation of hadron colliders impose unprecedented demands on the performance of future systems. The arguments leading to the specification of a transverse feedback system for the CERN SPS in its role as LHC injector and the LHC collider itself are developped to illustrate this. The preservation of the transverse emittance is the guiding principle during this exercise keeping in mind the hostile environment which comprises: transverse impedance bent on developping coupled bunch instabilities, injection errors, unwanted transverse excitation, unavoidable tune spreads and noise in the damping loop.

  4. Convection and stellar oscillations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarslev, Magnus Johan

    2017-01-01

    for asteroseismology, because of the challenges inherent in modelling turbulent convection in 1D stellar models. As a result of oversimplifying the physics near the surface, theoretical calculations systematically overestimate the oscillation frequencies. This has become known as the asteroseismic surface effect. Due...... to lacking better options, this frequency difference is typically corrected for with ad-hoc formulae. The topic of this thesis is the improvement of 1D stellar convection models and the effects this has on asteroseismic properties. The source of improvements is 3D simulations of radiation...... atmospheres to replace the outer layers of stellar models. The additional turbulent pressure and asymmetrical opacity effects in the atmosphere model, compared to convection in stellar evolution models, serve to expand the atmosphere. The enlarged acoustic cavity lowers the pulsation frequencies bringing them...

  5. Photospheric oscillations. Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fossat, E.; Ricort, G.

    1975-01-01

    Intensity fluctuations in the wings of the Fraunhofer line Na D 1 5896 have been recorded for about two hundred hours at the focus of the Nice coude refractor, using a sodium optical resonance device. Because of the large beam aperture available, records have been made on circular apertures from 22'' up to 32' diameter (the whole sun). The principal results from the analysis of these date are: As shown by White and Cha, the five-minute oscillation has a gaussian random character with a mean lifetime of about 20 min. Its two-dimensional spatial power spectrum is roughly gaussian for every temporal frequency between 2 and 6 MHz. The width of this gaussian spectrum is near 5 x 10 -5 km -1 (i.e. π = 20,000 km). (orig./BJ) [de

  6. Coronal Waves and Oscillations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nakariakov Valery M.

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available Wave and oscillatory activity of the solar corona is confidently observed with modern imaging and spectral instruments in the visible light, EUV, X-ray and radio bands, and interpreted in terms of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD wave theory. The review reflects the current trends in the observational study of coronal waves and oscillations (standing kink, sausage and longitudinal modes, propagating slow waves and fast wave trains, the search for torsional waves, theoretical modelling of interaction of MHD waves with plasma structures, and implementation of the theoretical results for the mode identification. Also the use of MHD waves for remote diagnostics of coronal plasma - MHD coronal seismology - is discussed and the applicability of this method for the estimation of coronal magnetic field, transport coefficients, fine structuring and heating function is demonstrated.

  7. Geodetic Space Weather Monitoring by means of Ionosphere Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Michael

    2017-04-01

    The term space weather indicates physical processes and phenomena in space caused by radiation of energy mainly from the Sun. Manifestations of space weather are (1) variations of the Earth's magnetic field, (2) the polar lights in the northern and southern hemisphere, (3) variations within the ionosphere as part of the upper atmosphere characterized by the existence of free electrons and ions, (4) the solar wind, i.e. the permanent emission of electrons and photons, (5) the interplanetary magnetic field, and (6) electric currents, e.g. the van Allen radiation belt. It can be stated that ionosphere disturbances are often caused by so-called solar storms. A solar storm comprises solar events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which have different effects on the Earth. Solar flares may cause disturbances in positioning, navigation and communication. CMEs can effect severe disturbances and in extreme cases damages or even destructions of modern infrastructure. Examples are interruptions to satellite services including the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), communication systems, Earth observation and imaging systems or a potential failure of power networks. Currently the measurements of solar satellite missions such as STEREO and SOHO are used to forecast solar events. Besides these measurements the Earth's ionosphere plays another key role in monitoring the space weather, because it responses to solar storms with an increase of the electron density. Space-geodetic observation techniques, such as terrestrial GNSS, satellite altimetry, space-borne GPS (radio occultation), DORIS and VLBI provide valuable global information about the state of the ionosphere. Additionally geodesy has a long history and large experience in developing and using sophisticated analysis and combination techniques as well as empirical and physical modelling approaches. Consequently, geodesy is predestinated for strongly supporting space weather monitoring via

  8. Space Weather, Environment and Societies

    CERN Document Server

    Lilensten, Jean

    2006-01-01

    Our planet exists within a space environment affected by constantly changing solar atmosphere producing cosmic particles and electromagnetic waves. This "space weather" profoundly influences the performance of our technology because we primarily use two means for transmitting information and energy; namely, electromagnetic waves and electricity. On an everyday basis, we have developed methods to cope with the normal conditions. However, the sun remains a fiery star whose 'angry' outbursts can potentially destroy spacecrafts, kill astronauts, melt electricity transformers, stop trains, and generally wreak havoc with human activities. Space Weather is the developing field within astronomy that aims at predicting the sun’s violent activity and minimizing the impacts on our daily lives. Space Weather, Environment, and Societies explains why our technological societies are so dependent on solar activity and how the Sun disturbs the transmission of information and energy. Footnotes expand specific points and the ...

  9. Oscillator strengths for neutral technetium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garstang, R.H.

    1981-01-01

    Oscillator strengths have been calculated for most of the spectral lines of TcI which are of interest in the study of stars of spectral type S. Oscillator strengths have been computed for the corresponding transitions in MnI as a partial check of the technetium calculations

  10. Hyperchaos in coupled Colpitts oscillators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cenys, Antanas; Tamasevicius, Arunas; Baziliauskas, Antanas

    2003-01-01

    The paper suggests a simple solution of building a hyperchaotic oscillator. Two chaotic Colpitts oscillators, either identical or non-identical ones are coupled by means of two linear resistors R-k. The hyperchaotic output signal v(t) is a linear combination, specifically the mean of the individual...

  11. Stochastic and Chaotic Relaxation Oscillations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grasman, J.; Roerdink, J.B.T.M.

    1988-01-01

    For relaxation oscillators stochastic and chaotic dynamics are investigated. The effect of random perturbations upon the period is computed. For an extended system with additional state variables chaotic behavior can be expected. As an example, the Van der Pol oscillator is changed into a

  12. Oscillating solitons in nonlinear optics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... are derived, and the relevant properties and features of oscillating solitons are illustrated. Oscillating solitons are controlled by the reciprocal of the group velocity and Kerr nonlinearity. Results of this paper will be valuable to the study of dispersion-managed optical communication system and mode-locked fibre lasers.

  13. Augmenting cognition by neuronal oscillations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horschig, J.M.; Zumer, J.; Bahramisharif, A.

    2014-01-01

    Cortical oscillations have been shown to represent fundamental functions of a working brain, e.g., communication, stimulus binding, error monitoring, and inhibition, and are directly linked to behavior. Recent studies intervening with these oscillations have demonstrated effective modulation of both

  14. Response of the Southern Annular Mode to tidal forcing and the bidecadal rainfall cycle over subtropical southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malherbe, J

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Synoptic weather data and rainfall records are used to support previous suggestions that the decadal-scale cycle in certain climate records may be attributed to the modulation in tidal forcing related to the 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle. The Southern...

  15. Oscillating universe with quintom matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong Huahui; Cai Yifu; Qiu Taotao; Piao Yunsong; Zhang Xinmin

    2008-01-01

    In this Letter, we study the possibility of building a model of the oscillating universe with quintom matter in the framework of 4-dimensional Friedmann-Robertson-Walker background. Taking the two-scalar-field quintom model as an example, we find in the model parameter space there are five different types of solutions which correspond to: (I) a cyclic universe with the minimal and maximal values of the scale factor remaining the same in every cycle, (II) an oscillating universe with its minimal and maximal values of the scale factor increasing cycle by cycle, (III) an oscillating universe with its scale factor always increasing, (IV) an oscillating universe with its minimal and maximal values of the scale factor decreasing cycle by cycle, and (V) an oscillating universe with its scale factor always decreasing

  16. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  17. Vodcasting space weather: The Space Weather FX vodcast series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins Petersen, C.; Erickson, P. J.

    2008-06-01

    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of nine vodcasts (video podcasts) being created by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, Massachusetts, USA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, Massachusetts, USA). This paper describes the project, its science and outreach goals, and introduces the principal participants.

  18. Free oscillation of the Earth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Abedini

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available   This work is a study of the Earths free oscillations considering a merge of solid and liquid model. At the turn of 19th century Geophysicists presented the theory of the free oscillations for a self-gravitating, isotropic and compressible sphere. Assuming a steel structure for an Earth size sphere, they predicted a period of oscillation of about 1 hour. About 50 years later, the free oscillations of stars was studied by Cowling and others. They classified the oscillation modes of the stars into acoustic and gravity modes on the basis of their driving forces. These are pressure and buoyancy forces respectively. The earliest measurements for the period of the free oscillations of the Earth was made by Benyove from a study of Kamchathca earthquake. Since then, the Geophysicists have been trying to provide a theoretical basis for these measurements. Recently, the theory concerning oscillations of celestial fluids is extended by Sobouti to include the possible oscillations of the Earthlike bodies. Using the same technique, we study the free oscillations of a spherically symmetric, non-rotating and elastic model for the Earth.   We used the actual data of the Earths interior structure in our numerical calculations. Numerical results show that there exist three distinct oscillation modes namely acoustic, gravity and toroidal modes. These modes are driven by pressure, buoyancy and shear forces respectively. The shear force is due to the elastic properties of the solid part of the Earth. Our numerical results are consistent with the seismic data recorded from earthquake measurements.

  19. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  20. Effects of hurricanes and climate oscillations on annual variation in reproduction in wet forest, Puerto Rico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Jess K; Hogan, James Aaron; Nytch, Christopher J; Bithorn, John E

    2018-06-01

    Interannual changes in global climate and weather disturbances may influence reproduction in tropical forests. Phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to produce interannual variation in reproduction, as do severe storms such as hurricanes. Using stationary trap-based phenology data collected fortnightly from 1993 to 2014 from a hurricane-affected (1989 Hugo, 1998 Georges) subtropical wet forest in northeastern Puerto Rico, we conducted a time series analysis of flowering and seed production. We addressed (1) the degree to which interannual variation in flower and seed production was influenced by global climate drivers and time since hurricane disturbance, and (2) how long-term trends in reproduction varied with plant lifeform. The seasonally de-trended number of species in flower fluctuated over time while the number of species producing seed exhibited a declining trend, one that was particularly evident during the second half of the study period. Lagged El Niño indices and time series hurricane disturbance jointly influenced the trends in numbers of flowering and fruiting species, suggesting complex global influences on tropical forest reproduction with variable periodicities. Lag times affecting flowering tended to be longer than those affecting fruiting. Long-term patterns of reproduction in individual lifeforms paralleled the community-wide patterns, with most groups of lifeform exhibiting a long-term decline in seed but not flower production. Exceptions were found for hemiepiphytes, small trees, and lianas whose seed reproduction increased and then declined over time. There was no long-term increase in flower production as reported in other Neotropical sites. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  1. The Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Tropospheric Distributions of Ozone and Carbon Monoxide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowland, K. E.; Doherty, R. M.; Hodges, K.

    2015-12-01

    The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the tropospheric distributions of ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) has been quantified. The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) Reanalysis, a combined meteorology and composition dataset for the period 2003-2012 (Innes et al., 2013), is used to investigate the composition of the troposphere and lower stratosphere in relation to the location of the storm track as well as other meteorological parameters over the North Atlantic associated with the different NAO phases. Cyclone tracks in the MACC Reanalysis compare well to the cyclone tracks in the widely-used ERA-Interim Reanalysis for the same 10-year period (cyclone tracking performed using the tracking algorithm of Hodges (1995, 1999)), as both are based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS). A seasonal analysis is performed whereby the MACC reanalysis meteorological fields, O3 and CO mixing ratios are weighted by the monthly NAO index values. The location of the main storm track, which tilts towards high latitudes (toward the Arctic) during positive NAO phases to a more zonal location in the mid-latitudes (toward Europe) during negative NAO phases, impacts the location of both horizontal and vertical transport across the North Atlantic and into the Arctic. During positive NAO seasons, the persistence of cyclones over the North Atlantic coupled with a stronger Azores High promotes strong horizontal transport across the North Atlantic throughout the troposphere. In all seasons, significantly more intense cyclones occur at higher latitudes (north of ~50°C) during the positive phase of the NAO and in the southern mid-latitudes during the negative NAO phase. This impacts the location of stratospheric intrusions within the descending dry airstream behind the associated cold front of the extratropical cyclone and the venting of low-level pollution up into the free troposphere within

  2. Weather swap as an instrument for weather risk management in wheat production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marković Todor

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A special type of weather derivatives are weather forwards and they exists mostly in the form of weather swaps. Hedging effectiveness in wheat production with and without weather swap was analyzed in this paper using stochastic dominance. The results show that the effect of risk reduction is significant using weather swap, but geographical- basis risk and production-related basis risk are important factor that reduce the utility of weather derivatives.

  3. A generalized theory of sun-climate/weather link and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1988-07-01

    We generalize the theory of Sun-Climate/weather links and climatic change developed earlier by the author. On the basis of this theory, we show mathematically that key climatic/weather parameters are continuously subjected to determinable amplitude modulations and other variations which may be useful in climatic prediction work. A number of new and known terrestrial oscillations in climate and atmospheric behaviour in general, including the known quasi-biennial oscillations and many others, are deduced from the theory and accounted for in terms of their causative physical processes. Finally we briefly discuss the possibility of applying the theory to the planets Mars and Venus as well as Saturn's largest satellite, Titan. (author). 30 refs, 1 fig

  4. Restoration of severely weathered wood

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Sam. Williams; Mark. Knaebe

    2000-01-01

    Severely weathered window units were used to test various restoration methods and pretreatments. Sanded and unsanded units were pretreated with a consolidant or water repellent preservative, finished with an oil- or latex-based paint system, and exposed outdoors near Madison, WI, for five years. Pretreatments were applied to both window sashes (stiles and rails) and...

  5. Weather delay costs to trucking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-01

    Estimates of the nations freight sector of transportation range to upwards of $600 billion of total gross domestic product with 70 percent of total value and 60 percent of total weight moving by truck. Weather-related delays can add significantly ...

  6. Synoptic weather conditions during BOBMEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    sions when the strong wind field appeared spread over the peninsula and central India. This was also seen both in OLR and in vertical velocity fields prepared by National Centre for Medium. Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). A band of low OLR (150–160watts/sqm) could be seen in the south and adjoining central ...

  7. NOAA Weather Radio - All Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Non-Zero All Hazards Logo Emergency Alert Description Event Codes Fact Sheet FAQ Organization Search -event information for all types of hazards: weather (e.g., tornadoes, floods), natural (e.g Management or Preparedness, civil defense, police or mayor/commissioner sets up linkages to send messages on

  8. A decade of weather extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also

  9. Fatigue Strength of Weathering Steel

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kunz, Ludvík; Lukáš, Petr; Klusák, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 1 (2012), s. 18-22 ISSN 1392-1320 Grant - others:GA MPO(CZ) FT/TA5/076 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : fatigue of weathering steel * corrosion pits * fatigue notch factor Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 0.522, year: 2012

  10. Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Hassan; Eshow, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview, presents the high level software architecture of DWR, based on the CTAS software framework and the Direct-To automation tool. The document also covers external and internal data flows, required dataset, changes to the Direct-To software for DWR, collection of software statistics, and the code structure.

  11. Skywatch: The Western Weather Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, Richard A.

    The western United States is a region of mountains and valleys with the world's largest ocean next door. Its weather is unique. This book discusses how water, wind, and environmental conditions combine to create the climatic conditions of the region. Included are sections describing: fronts; cyclones; precipitation; storms; tornadoes; hurricanes;…

  12. Accelerated laboratory weathering of acrylic lens materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, Thomas; Richter, Steffen; Kogler, René; Pasierb, Mike; Walby, Christopher

    2015-09-01

    Flat samples from various poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) formulations were subjected to outdoor weathering in Arizona and Florida, EMMAQUA® accelerated outdoor weathering, and two accelerated laboratory weathering procedures at 3 Sun irradiance which, imitate dry (Arizona) and wet (Florida) conditions. The main mode of degradation is yellowing and not the generation of haze for any weathering procedure within the investigated radiant exposure. Higher UV absorber concentrations lead to smaller changes in optical properties and in the resulting relative concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) module efficiencies. Comparison of sample properties after various weathering procedures reveals that the influence of weathering factors other than radiant exposure depends on the sample as well.

  13. A theory of generalized Bloch oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duggen, Lars; Lassen, Benny; Lew Yan Voon, L C; Willatzen, Morten

    2016-01-01

    Bloch oscillations of electrons are shown to occur for cases when the energy spectrum does not consist of the traditional evenly-spaced ladders and the potential gradient does not result from an external electric field. A theory of such generalized Bloch oscillations is presented and an exact calculation is given to confirm this phenomenon. Our results allow for a greater freedom of design for experimentally observing Bloch oscillations. For strongly coupled oscillator systems displaying Bloch oscillations, it is further demonstrated that reordering of oscillators leads to destruction of Bloch oscillations. We stipulate that the presented theory of generalized Bloch oscillations can be extended to other systems such as acoustics and photonics. (paper)

  14. Neutrino oscillation: status and outlooks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nedelec, P.

    1994-01-01

    Whether the neutrinos are massive or not is one of the most puzzling question of physics today. If they are massive, they can contribute significantly to the Dark Matter of the Universe. An other consequence of a non-zero mass of neutrinos is that they might oscillate from one flavor to another. This oscillation process is by now the only way to detect a neutrino with a mass in the few eV range. Several neutrino experiments are currently looking for such an oscillation, in different modes, using different techniques. An overview of the experimental situation for neutrino experiments at accelerators is given. (author). 9 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs

  15. Synchronous Oscillations in Microtubule Polymerization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlier, M. F.; Melki, R.; Pantaloni, D.; Hill, T. L.; Chen, Y.

    1987-08-01

    Under conditions where microtubule nucleation and growth are fast (i.e., high magnesium ion and tubulin concentrations and absence of glycerol), microtubule assembly in vitro exhibits an oscillatory regime preceding the establishment of steady state. The amplitude of the oscillations can represent >50% of the maximum turbidity change and oscillations persist for up to 20 periods of 80 s each. Oscillations are accompanied by extensive length redistribution of microtubules. Preliminary work suggests that the oscillatory kinetics can be simulated using a model in which many microtubules undergo synchronous transitions between growing and rapidly depolymerizing phases, complicated by the kinetically limiting rate of nucleotide exchange on free tubulin.

  16. Rabi oscillation between states of a coupled harmonic oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Tae Jun

    2003-01-01

    Rabi oscillation between bound states of a single potential is well known. However the corresponding formula between the states of two different potentials has not been obtained yet. In this work, we derive Rabi formula between the states of a coupled harmonic oscillator which may be used as a simple model for the electron transfer. The expression is similar to typical Rabi formula for a single potential. This result may be used to describe transitions between coupled diabatic potential curves

  17. Oscillations in Mathematical Biology

    CERN Document Server

    1983-01-01

    The papers in this volume are based on talks given at a one day conference held on the campus of Adelphi University in April 1982. The conference was organized with the title "Oscillations in Mathematical Biology;" however the speakers were allowed considerable latitutde in their choice of topics. In the event, the talks all concerned the dynamics of non-linear systems arising in biology so that the conference achieved a good measure of cohesion. Some of the speakers cho~e not to submit a manuscript for these proceedings, feeling that their material was too conjectural to be committed to print. Also the paper of Rinzel and Troy is a distillation of the two separate talks that the authors gave. Otherwise the material reproduces the conference proceedings. The conference was made possible by the generous support of the Office of the Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences at Adelphi. The bulk of the organization of the conference was carried out by Dr. Ronald Grisell whose energy was in large measure responsib...

  18. Principal oscillation patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, H. von; Buerger, G.; Storch, J.S. von

    1993-01-01

    The Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis is a technique which is used to simultaneously infer the characteristic patterns and time scales of a vector time series. The POPs may be seen as the normal modes of a linearized system whose system matrix is estimated from data. The concept of POP analysis is reviewed. Examples are used to illustrate the potential of the POP technique. The best defined POPs of tropospheric day-to-day variability coincide with the most unstable modes derived from linearized theory. POPs can be derived even from a space-time subset of data. POPs are successful in identifying two independent modes with similar time scales in the same data set. The POP method can also produce forecasts which may potentially be used as a reference for other forecast models. The conventional POP analysis technique has been generalized in various ways. In the cyclostationary POP analysis, the estimated system matrix is allowed to vary deterministically with an externally forced cycle. In the complex POP analysis not only the state of the system but also its ''momentum'' is modeled. Associated correlation patterns are a useful tool to describe the appearance of a signal previously identified by a POP analysis in other parameters. (orig.)

  19. Temperature And Wind Velocity Oscillations Along a Gentle Slope During Sea-Breeze Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastin, Sophie; Drobinski, Philippe

    2005-03-01

    The flow structure on a gentle slope at Vallon d’Ol in the northern suburbs of Marseille in southern France has been documented by means of surface wind and temperature measurements collected from 7 June to 14 July 2001 during the ESCOMPTE experiment. The analysis of the time series reveals temperature and wind speed oscillations during several nights (about 60--90 min oscillation period) and several days (about 120-180 min oscillation period) during the whole observing period. Oscillating katabatic winds have been reported in the literature from theoretical, experimental and numerical studies. In the present study, the dynamics of the observed oscillating katabatic winds are in good agreement with the theory.In contrast to katabatic winds, no daytime observations of oscillating anabatic upslope flows have ever been published to our knowledge, probably because of temperature inversion break-up that inhibits upslope winds. The present paper shows that cold air advection by a sea breeze generates a mesoscale horizontal temperature gradient, and hence baroclinicity in the atmosphere, which then allows low-frequency oscillations, similar to a katabatic flow. An expression for the oscillation period is derived that accounts for the contribution of the sea-breeze induced mesoscale horizontal temperature gradient. The theoretical prediction of the oscillation period is compared to the measurements, and good agreement is found. The statistical analysis of the wind flow at Vallon d’Ol shows a dominant north-easterly to easterly flow pattern for nighttime oscillations and a dominant south-westerly flow pattern for daytime oscillations. These results are consistent with published numerical simulation results that show that the air drains off the mountain along the maximum slope direction, which in the studied case is oriented south-west to north-east.

  20. NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit is an application that provides simple visualization and data export of weather and climatological data archived at NCDC. The...

  1. Vehicle automation and weather : challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-25

    Adverse weather has major impacts on the safety and operations of all roads, from signalized arterials to Interstate highways. Weather affects driver behavior, vehicle performance, pavement friction, and roadway infrastructure, thereby increasing the...

  2. National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

    Science.gov (United States)

    weather.gov Site Map News Organization Search for: SPC NCEP All NOAA Search by city or zip ... Fire Wx Outlooks RSS Feeds E-Mail Alerts Weather Information Storm Reports Storm Reports Dev. NWS Hazards ...

  3. Integrating Sphere-based Weathering Device

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description:In the artificial ultraviolet (UV) weathering of materials, a need exists for weathering devices that can uniformly illuminate test specimens with a high...

  4. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  5. World War II Weather Record Transmittances

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World War II Weather Record Transmittances are a record of the weather and meteorological data observed during World War II and transferred to the archive. It...

  6. Newspaper Clippings and Articles (Weather-related)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather-related newspaper articles and photos, almost exclusively from Baltimore, MD and nearby areas. Includes storm damage, rainfall reports, and weather's affect...

  7. Fire Danger and Fire Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (formerly Weather Bureau) and Forest Service developed a program to track meteorological conditions conducive to forest fires, resulting...

  8. Adaptive Weather Forecasting using Local Meteorological Information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    In general, meteorological parameters such as temperature, rain and global radiation are important for agricultural systems. Anticipating on future conditions is most often needed in these systems. Weather forecasts then become of substantial importance. As weather forecasts are subject to

  9. SIGWX Charts - High Level Significant Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — High level significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts are provided for the en-route portion of international flights. NOAA's National Weather Service Aviation Center...

  10. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

  11. Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Ruping; Joe, Paul I.; Doyle, Chris; Whitfield, Paul H.

    2014-01-01

    A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981-2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.

  12. The Duffing oscillator with damping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johannessen, Kim

    2015-01-01

    An analytical solution to the differential equation describing the Duffing oscillator with damping is presented. The damping term of the differential equation and the initial conditions satisfy an algebraic equation, and thus the solution is specific for this type of damping. The nonlinear term...... of the differential equation is allowed to be considerable compared to the linear term. The solution is expressed in terms of the Jacobi elliptic functions by including a parameter-dependent elliptic modulus. The analytical solution is compared to the numerical solution, and the agreement is found to be very good....... It is established that the period of oscillation is shorter compared to that of a linearized model but increasing with time and asymptotically approaching the period of oscillation of the linear damped model. An explicit expression for the period of oscillation has been derived, and it is found to be very accurate....

  13. Electronically tunable RC sinusoidal oscillators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Florescu, Valeriu

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents two types of active configurations for realizing electronically tunable RC sinusoidal oscillators. The type-1 network employs two grounded scaled resistances KR 1 and KR 2 , where K is scaling factor. The frequency of oscillation W 0 is controlled conveniently by adjusting K, since W 0 appears in the form W 0 =1/K √ R 1 C 1 R 2 C 2 . For realizing the scaled resistances, an active configuration is proposed, which realizes KR 1 =R 1 /(1+f(V B )), where f(V B ) denotes a function of a controlling voltage V B . Thus the frequency tuning can be effected by controlling a voltage V B . The type-2 oscillator uses two periodically switched conductances. It is shown that the tuning of oscillation frequency can be done by varying the pulse width-to-period ratio (t/T) of the periodically switched conductances. (author)

  14. Thermoelastic Loss in Microscale Oscillators

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Houston, B. H; Photiadis, D. M; Marcus, M. H; Bucaro, J. A; Liu, Xiao; Vignola, J. F

    2001-01-01

    ...) and nanoelectromechanical (NEMS) oscillators. The theory defines a flexural modal participation factor, the fraction of potential energy stored in flexure, and approximates the internal friction by assuming the energy loss to occur solely via...

  15. Oscillating nonlinear acoustic shock waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaididei, Yuri; Rasmussen, Anders Rønne; Christiansen, Peter Leth

    2016-01-01

    We investigate oscillating shock waves in a tube using a higher order weakly nonlinear acoustic model. The model includes thermoviscous effects and is non isentropic. The oscillating shock waves are generated at one end of the tube by a sinusoidal driver. Numerical simulations show that at resona......We investigate oscillating shock waves in a tube using a higher order weakly nonlinear acoustic model. The model includes thermoviscous effects and is non isentropic. The oscillating shock waves are generated at one end of the tube by a sinusoidal driver. Numerical simulations show...... polynomial in the space and time variables, we find analytical approximations to the observed single shock waves in an infinitely long tube. Using perturbation theory for the driven acoustic system approximative analytical solutions for the off resonant case are determined....

  16. Transient voltage oscillations in coils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chowdhuri, P.

    1985-01-01

    Magnet coils may be excited into internal voltage oscillations by transient voltages. Such oscillations may electrically stress the magnet's dielectric components to many times its normal stress. This may precipitate a dielectric failure, and the attendant prolonged loss of service and costly repair work. Therefore, it is important to know the natural frequencies of oscillations of a magnet during the design stage, and to determine whether the expected switching transient voltages can excite the magnet into high-voltage internal oscillations. The series capacitance of a winding significantly affects its natural frequencies. However, the series capacitance is difficult to calculate, because it may comprise complex capacitance network, consisting of intra- and inter-coil turn-to-turn capacitances of the coil sections. A method of calculating the series capacitance of a winding is proposed. This method is rigorous but simple to execute. The time-varying transient voltages along the winding are also calculated

  17. Evaluation of weather-based rice yield models in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudharsan, D.; Adinarayana, J.; Reddy, D. Raji; Sreenivas, G.; Ninomiya, S.; Hirafuji, M.; Kiura, T.; Tanaka, K.; Desai, U. B.; Merchant, S. N.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to compare two different rice simulation models—standalone (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT]) and web based (SImulation Model for RIce-Weather relations [SIMRIW])—with agrometeorological data and agronomic parameters for estimation of rice crop production in southern semi-arid tropics of India. Studies were carried out on the BPT5204 rice variety to evaluate two crop simulation models. Long-term experiments were conducted in a research farm of Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU), Hyderabad, India. Initially, the results were obtained using 4 years (1994-1997) of data with weather parameters from a local weather station to evaluate DSSAT simulated results with observed values. Linear regression models used for the purpose showed a close relationship between DSSAT and observed yield. Subsequently, yield comparisons were also carried out with SIMRIW and DSSAT, and validated with actual observed values. Realizing the correlation coefficient values of SIMRIW simulation values in acceptable limits, further rice experiments in monsoon (Kharif) and post-monsoon (Rabi) agricultural seasons (2009, 2010 and 2011) were carried out with a location-specific distributed sensor network system. These proximal systems help to simulate dry weight, leaf area index and potential yield by the Java based SIMRIW on a daily/weekly/monthly/seasonal basis. These dynamic parameters are useful to the farming community for necessary decision making in a ubiquitous manner. However, SIMRIW requires fine tuning for better results/decision making.

  18. Modelling solar-like oscillators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eggenberger, P; Miglio, A [Institut d' Astrophysique et de Geophysique de l' Universite de Liege, 17 Allee du 6 Aout, B-4000 Liege (Belgium); Carrier, F [Institute of Astronomy, University of Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200 D, B-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Mathis, S [CEA/DSM/DAPNIA/Service d' Astrophysique, CEA/Saclay, AIM-Unite Mixte de Recherche CEA-CNRS-Universite Paris VII, UMR 7158, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France)], E-mail: eggenberger@Qastro.ulg.ac.be

    2008-10-15

    The computation of models of stars for which solar-like oscillations have been observed is discussed. After a brief intoduction on the observations of solar-like oscillations, the modelling of isolated stars and of stars belonging to a binary system is presented with specific examples of recent theoretical calibrations. Finally the input physics introduced in stellar evolution codes for the computation of solar-type stars is discussed with a peculiar emphasis on the modelling of rotation for these stars.

  19. Efficient Ways to Learn Weather Radar Polarimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Yeary, M. B.; Zhang, Guifu

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. weather radar network is currently being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Weather radar polarimetry is an interdisciplinary area of engineering and meteorology. This paper presents efficient ways to learn weather radar polarimetry through several basic and practical topics. These topics include: 1) hydrometeor scattering model…

  20. 49 CFR 195.224 - Welding: Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Welding: Weather. 195.224 Section 195.224 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... PIPELINE Construction § 195.224 Welding: Weather. Welding must be protected from weather conditions that...

  1. The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

    2002-01-01

    The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

  2. The Early Years: The Wonders of Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashbrook, Peggy

    2013-01-01

    This article reports on the wonders of winter weather, as it often inspires teachers' and students' interest in collecting weather data, especially if snow falls. Beginning weather data collection in preschool will introduce children to the concepts of making regular observations of natural phenomena, recording the observations (data),…

  3. 36 CFR 910.71 - Weather protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Weather protection. 910.71 Section 910.71 Parks, Forests, and Public Property PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION GENERAL... DEVELOPMENT AREA Glossary of Terms § 910.71 Weather protection. Weather protection means a seasonal or...

  4. Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are

  5. Modeling nonlinearities in MEMS oscillators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Deepak K; Woodhouse, Jim; Seshia, Ashwin A

    2013-08-01

    We present a mathematical model of a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) oscillator that integrates the nonlinearities of the MEMS resonator and the oscillator circuitry in a single numerical modeling environment. This is achieved by transforming the conventional nonlinear mechanical model into the electrical domain while simultaneously considering the prominent nonlinearities of the resonator. The proposed nonlinear electrical model is validated by comparing the simulated amplitude-frequency response with measurements on an open-loop electrically addressed flexural silicon MEMS resonator driven to large motional amplitudes. Next, the essential nonlinearities in the oscillator circuit are investigated and a mathematical model of a MEMS oscillator is proposed that integrates the nonlinearities of the resonator. The concept is illustrated for MEMS transimpedance-amplifier- based square-wave and sine-wave oscillators. Closed-form expressions of steady-state output power and output frequency are derived for both oscillator models and compared with experimental and simulation results, with a good match in the predicted trends in all three cases.

  6. Cave breakdown by vadose weathering.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osborne R. Armstrong L.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Vadose weathering is a significant mechanism for initiating breakdown in caves. Vadose weathering of ore bodies, mineral veins, palaeokarst deposits, non-carbonate keystones and impure, altered or fractured bedrock, which is intersected by caves, will frequently result in breakdown. Breakdown is an active, ongoing process. Breakdown occurs throughout the vadose zone, and is not restricted to large diameter passages, or to cave ceilings. The surfaces of disarticulated blocks are commonly coated, rather than having fresh broken faces, and blocks continue to disintegrate after separating from the bedrock. Not only gypsum, but also hydromagnesite and aragonite are responsible for crystal wedging. It is impossible to study or identify potential breakdown foci by surface surveys alone, in-cave observation and mapping are essential.

  7. Periodic weather and climate variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, Vladimir V

    2002-01-01

    Variations in meteorological parameters are largely due to periodic processes and can be forecast for several years. Many such processes are related to astronomical factors such as the gravitational influences of the Moon and the Sun, and the modulation of solar irradiance by lunar and planetary motion. The Moon, Jupiter, and Venus have the strongest effect. These influences produce lines in the spectra of meteorological variations, which are combinations of the harmonics of the frequencies of revolution of the planets, the Earth, and the Moon around the Sun with the harmonics of the lunar revolution around the Earth. Due to frequency differences between the orbital and radial motions, fine spectral features of three types appear: line splitting, line-profile complications due to radial oscillations, and additional lines due to the combination of radial-oscillation frequencies with perturbation harmonics. (reviews of topical problems)

  8. On the nonlinear modeling of ring oscillators

    KAUST Repository

    Elwakil, Ahmed S.

    2009-06-01

    We develop higher-order nonlinear models of three-stage and five-stage ring oscillators based on a novel inverter model. The oscillation condition and oscillation frequency are derived and compared to classical linear model analysis. Two important special cases for five-stage ring oscillators are also studied. Numerical simulations are shown. © 2009 World Scientific Publishing Company.

  9. Some comparison of two fractional oscillators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang Yonggang; Zhang Xiu'e

    2010-01-01

    The other form of fractional oscillator equation comparing to the widely discussed one is ushered in. The properties of vibration of two fractional oscillators are discussed under the influence of different initial conditions. The interpretation of the characteristics of the fractional oscillators using different method is illustrated. Based on two fractional oscillator equations, two linked bodies and the continuous system are studied.

  10. Magnetically Coupled Magnet-Spring Oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donoso, G.; Ladera, C. L.; Martin, P.

    2010-01-01

    A system of two magnets hung from two vertical springs and oscillating in the hollows of a pair of coils connected in series is a new, interesting and useful example of coupled oscillators. The electromagnetically coupled oscillations of these oscillators are experimentally and theoretically studied. Its coupling is electromagnetic instead of…

  11. On the nonlinear modeling of ring oscillators

    KAUST Repository

    Elwakil, Ahmed S.; Salama, Khaled N.

    2009-01-01

    We develop higher-order nonlinear models of three-stage and five-stage ring oscillators based on a novel inverter model. The oscillation condition and oscillation frequency are derived and compared to classical linear model analysis. Two important special cases for five-stage ring oscillators are also studied. Numerical simulations are shown. © 2009 World Scientific Publishing Company.

  12. Weather, Climate and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, T.

    2016-12-01

    To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

  13. Hydrologic applications of weather radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Dong-Jun; Habib, Emad; Andrieu, Hervé; Morin, Efrat

    2015-12-01

    By providing high-resolution quantitative precipitation information (QPI), weather radars have revolutionized hydrology in the last two decades. With the aid of GIS technology, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) have enabled routine high-resolution hydrologic modeling in many parts of the world. Given the ever-increasing need for higher-resolution hydrologic and water resources information for a wide range of applications, one may expect that the use of weather radar will only grow. Despite the tremendous progress, a number of significant scientific, technological and engineering challenges remain to realize its potential. New challenges are also emerging as new areas of applications are discovered, explored and pursued. The purpose of this special issue is to provide the readership with some of the latest advances, lessons learned, experiences gained, and science issues and challenges related to hydrologic applications of weather radar. The special issue features 20 contributions on various topics which reflect the increasing diversity as well as the areas of focus in radar hydrology today. The contributions may be grouped as follows:

  14. Intra-Seasonal Monthly Oscillations in Stratospheric NCEP Data and Model Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

    2009-01-01

    Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) are observed in the zonal-mean of mesospheric wind and temperature measurements-and the numerical spectral model (NSM) generates such oscillations. Relatively large temperature ISO are evident also in stratospheric CPC (NCEP) data at high latitudes, where the NSM produces amplitudes around 3 K at 30 km. Analyzing the NCEP data for the years 1996-2006, we find in Fourier spectra signatures of oscillations with periods between 1.7 and 3 months. With statistical confidence levels exceeding 70%, the spectral features are induced by nonlinear interactions involving the annual and semi-annual variations. The synthesized data show for the 10-year average that the temperature ISO peak in winter, having amplitudes close to 4 K. The synthesized complete spectrum for periods around 2 months produces oscillations, varying from year to year, which can reach peak amplitudes of 15 and 5 K respectively at northern and southern polar latitudes.

  15. Self-perceived weather sensitivity and joint pain in older people with osteoarthritis in six European countries: results from the European Project on OSteoArthritis (EPOSA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, Erik J; van der Pas, Suzan; Schaap, Laura A; Sánchez-Martínez, Mercedes; Zambon, Sabina; Peter, Richard; Pedersen, Nancy L; Dennison, Elaine M; Denkinger, Michael; Castell, Maria Victoria; Siviero, Paola; Herbolsheimer, Florian; Edwards, Mark H; Otero, Angel; Deeg, Dorly J H

    2014-03-05

    People with osteoarthritis (OA) frequently report that their joint pain is influenced by weather conditions. This study aimed to examine whether there are differences in perceived joint pain between older people with OA who reported to be weather-sensitive versus those who did not in six European countries with different climates and to identify characteristics of older persons with OA that are most predictive of perceived weather sensitivity. Baseline data from the European Project on OSteoArthritis (EPOSA) were used. ACR classification criteria were used to determine OA. Participants with OA were asked about their perception of weather as influencing their pain. Using a two-week follow-up pain calendar, average self-reported joint pain was assessed (range: 0 (no pain)-10 (greatest pain intensity)). Linear regression analyses, logistic regression analyses and an independent t-test were used. Analyses were adjusted for several confounders. The majority of participants with OA (67.2%) perceived the weather as affecting their pain. Weather-sensitive participants reported more pain than non-weather-sensitive participants (M = 4.1, SD = 2.4 versus M = 3.1, SD = 2.4; p weather sensitivity and joint pain remained present (B = 0.37, p = 0.03). Logistic regression analyses revealed that women and more anxious people were more likely to report weather sensitivity. Older people with OA from Southern Europe were more likely to indicate themselves as weather-sensitive persons than those from Northern Europe. Weather (in)stability may have a greater impact on joint structures and pain perception in people from Southern Europe. The results emphasize the importance of considering weather sensitivity in daily life of older people with OA and may help to identify weather-sensitive older people with OA.

  16. On the mechanism of oscillations in neutrophils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brasen, Jens Christian; Barington, Torben; Olsen, Lars Folke

    2010-01-01

    We have investigated the regulation of the oscillatory generation of H(2)O(2) and oscillations in shape and size in neutrophils in suspension. The oscillations are independent of cell density and hence do not represent a collective phenomena. Furthermore, the oscillations are independent...... of the external glucose concentration and the oscillations in H(2)O(2) production are 180 degrees out of phase with the oscillations in NAD(P)H. Cytochalasin B blocked the oscillations in shape and size whereas it increased the period of the oscillations in H(2)O(2) production. 1- and 2-butanol also blocked...... the oscillations in shape and size, but only 1-butanol inhibited the oscillations in H(2)O(2) production. We conjecture that the oscillations are likely to be due to feedback regulations in the signal transduction cascade involving phosphoinositide 3-kinases (PI3K). We have tested this using a simple mathematical...

  17. Reactor oscillator - I - III, Part I; Reaktorski oscilator - I-III, I Deo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lolic, B [Institute of Nuclear Sciences Boris Kidric, Laboratorija za fiziku reaktora, Vinca, Beograd (Serbia and Montenegro)

    1961-12-15

    Project 'Reactor oscillator' covers the following activities: designing reactor oscillators for reactors RA and RB with detailed engineering drawings; constructing and mounting of the oscillator; designing and constructing the appropriate electronic equipment for the oscillator; measurements at the RA and RB reactors needed for completing the oscillator construction.

  18. Weather on Steroids: The Art of Climate Change Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudrias, M. A.; Gershunov, A.; Sizonenko, T.; Wiese, A.; Fox, H.

    2017-12-01

    There have been many different kinds of efforts to improve climate change literacy of diverse audiences in the past several years. The challenge has been to balance science content with audience-specific messaging that engages them in both rational and affective ways. In the San Diego Region, Climate Education Partners (CEP) has been working with business leaders, elected officials, tribal leaders, and other community leaders to develop a suite of programs and activities to enhance the channels of communication outside traditional settings. CEP has partnered with the La Jolla Historical Society and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in a unique exhibition of art inspired by climate science, a project blending science and art to communicate the science of climate change in a new way and engage audiences more effectively. Weather on Steroids: the Art of Climate Change Science explores the question of consequences, challenges, and opportunities that arise from the changing climate on our planet. The exhibition merges the artistic and scientific to create a visual dialogue about the vexing problem of climate change, explores how weather variability affects the day-to-day life of local communities, and investigates Southern California vulnerability to climate change. Science serves as the inspiration for the creative responses from visual artists, who merge subjective images with empirical observation to reveal how climate variations upset the planet's balance with extreme weather impacts. Both the scientists and artists created didactic pages to explain their perspectives and each pair worked closely to incorporate the information into the creative piece so that the connection of each of 11 art installations to the science that inspired them is clear. By illuminating the reality of climate change, Weather on Steroids aspires to proactively stimulate public dialogue about one of the most important issues of our time.

  19. Flashing oscillation in pool water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takamasa, Tomoji; Kondo, Koichi; Hazuku, Tatsuya

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents an experimental study of high-pressure saturated water discharging into the pool water. The purpose of the experiment is to clarify the phenomena that occur in blow-down of high-pressure saturated water from the pressure vessel into the water-filled containment in the case of a wall-crack accident or a LOCA in an advanced reactor. The results revealed that a flashing oscillation (FO) occurs when high-pressure saturated water discharges into the pool water, under specified experimental settings. The range of the flashing oscillates between a point very close to and some distance from the vent hole. The pressures in the vent tube and pool water vary according to the flashing oscillation. The pressure oscillation and frequency of flashing position might be caused by the balancing action between the supply of saturated water, flashing at the control volume and its condensation on the steam-water interface. A linear analysis was conducted using a spherical flashing bubble model. The period of the flashing oscillation in the experiments can be explained by theoretical analysis

  20. Neutrino oscillations at proton accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michael, Douglas

    2002-01-01

    Data from many different experiments have started to build a first glimpse of the phenomenology associated with neutrino oscillations. Results on atmospheric and solar neutrinos are particularly clear while a third result from LSND suggests a possibly very complex oscillation phenomenology. As impressive as the results from current experiments are, it is clear that we are just getting started on a long-term experimental program to understand neutrino masses, mixings and the physics which produce them. A number of exciting fundamental physics possibilities exist, including that neutrino oscillations could demonstrate CP or CPT violation and could be tied to exotic high-energy phenomena including strings and extra dimensions. A complete exploration of oscillation phenomena demands many experiments, including those possible using neutrino beams produced at high energy proton accelerators. Most existing neutrino experiments are statistics limited even though they use gigantic detectors. High intensity proton beams are essential for producing the intense neutrino beams which we need for next generation neutrino oscillation experiments

  1. Neutrino Oscillations at Proton Accelerators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, Douglas

    2002-12-01

    Data from many different experiments have started to build a first glimpse of the phenomenology associated with neutrino oscillations. Results on atmospheric and solar neutrinos are particularly clear while a third result from LSND suggests a possibly very complex oscillation phenomenology. As impressive as the results from current experiments are, it is clear that we are just getting started on a long-term experimental program to understand neutrino masses, mixings and the physics which produce them. A number of exciting fundamental physics possibilities exist, including that neutrino oscillations could demonstrate CP or CPT violation and could be tied to exotic high-energy phenomena including strings and extra dimensions. A complete exploration of oscillation phenomena demands many experiments, including those possible using neutrino beams produced at high energy proton accelerators. Most existing neutrino experiments are statistics limited even though they use gigantic detectors. High intensity proton beams are essential for producing the intense neutrino beams which we need for next generation neutrino oscillation experiments.

  2. The homotopic method of travelling wave solution for El Niño tropic sea–air coupled oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mo Jiaqi; Lin Wantao

    2008-01-01

    The EI Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific sea–air interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving nonlinear equations for the ENSO model is proposed. And based on a class of oscillator of the ENSO model and by employing the method of homotopic mapping, the approximate solution of equations for the corresponding ENSO model is studied. It is proved from the results that homotopic method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the sea–air oscillator for the ENSO model

  3. Federal Aviation Administration weather program to improve aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedan, R. W.

    1983-01-01

    The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

  4. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  5. Restoration of oscillation in network of oscillators in presence of direct and indirect interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Majhi, Soumen; Bera, Bidesh K. [Physics and Applied Mathematics Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata-700108 (India); Bhowmick, Sourav K. [Department of Electronics, Asutosh College, Kolkata-700026 (India); Ghosh, Dibakar, E-mail: diba.ghosh@gmail.com [Physics and Applied Mathematics Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata-700108 (India)

    2016-10-23

    The suppression of oscillations in coupled systems may lead to several unwanted situations, which requires a suitable treatment to overcome the suppression. In this paper, we show that the environmental coupling in the presence of direct interaction, which can suppress oscillation even in a network of identical oscillators, can be modified by introducing a feedback factor in the coupling scheme in order to restore the oscillation. We inspect how the introduction of the feedback factor helps to resurrect oscillation from various kinds of death states. We numerically verify the resurrection of oscillations for two paradigmatic limit cycle systems, namely Landau–Stuart and Van der Pol oscillators and also in generic chaotic Lorenz oscillator. We also study the effect of parameter mismatch in the process of restoring oscillation for coupled oscillators. - Highlights: • Amplitude death is observed using direct and indirect coupling. • Revival of oscillation using feedback parameter is discussed. • Restoration of oscillation is observed in limit cycle and chaotic systems.

  6. Application of statistical correction in extended weather forecasting in the southern region of Brazil Aplicação de correlações estatísticas nas previsões de tempo estendidas na região Sudeste do Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Maria Heuminski de Avila

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Adverse weather conditions in critical periods of vegetative plant growth affect crop productivity, being a fundamental parameter for yield forecast. An increase in weather forecasting accuracy may be obtained by applying statistical correction to remove model bias. This study used statistical correction of ensemble forecasting with the atmospheric general circulation model (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/Center for Ocean - Land - Atmosphere Studies - CPTEC/COLA by mean error removal for three cities in the South of Brazil. Comparisons were made between corrected and original precipitation forecasts, and between these and data observed at their respective meteorological stations. Results showed that the applied statistical correction method may improve forecasting performance in some situations and that the term of forecast present high accuracy, indicating the importance of ensemble forecasting as an auxiliary tool in agricultural crop monitoring.As condições adversas do tempo, nos períodos críticos do desenvolvimento vegetativo da planta influenciam o rendimento da cultura, sendo um parâmetro fundamental para a previsão da safra. Um aumento na acurácea da previsão pode ser obtido ao se aplicar correções estatísticas para remover o erro sistemático do modelo. Neste trabalho foram realizadas correções estatísticas nas previsões de tempo por conjunto do modelo de circulação geral atmosférico (MGCA CPTEC/COLA (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos/Center for Ocean - Land - Atmosphere Studies, através da remoção do erro médio, para três localidades do Sul do Brasil. As previsões de precipitação obtidas pelo modelo sem correção foram comparadas com as previsões corrigidas e ambas com os dados observados nas respectivas estações meteorológicas. Os resultados mostraram que a correção estatística pode melhorar o desempenho do modelo em algumas situações, sendo que ambos os

  7. Nonstationary oscillations in gyrotrons revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumbrajs, O.; Kalis, H.

    2015-01-01

    Development of gyrotrons requires careful understanding of different regimes of gyrotron oscillations. It is known that in the planes of the generalized gyrotron variables: cyclotron resonance mismatch and dimensionless current or cyclotron resonance mismatch and dimensionless interaction length complicated alternating sequences of regions of stationary, periodic, automodulation, and chaotic oscillations exist. In the past, these regions were investigated on the supposition that the transit time of electrons through the interaction space is much shorter than the cavity decay time. This assumption is valid for short and/or high diffraction quality resonators. However, in the case of long and/or low diffraction quality resonators, which are often utilized, this assumption is no longer valid. In such a case, a different mathematical formalism has to be used for studying nonstationary oscillations. One example of such a formalism is described in the present paper

  8. Prediction of pilot induced oscillations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin PANĂ

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available An important problem in the design of flight-control systems for aircraft under pilotedcontrol is the determination of handling qualities and pilot-induced oscillations (PIO tendencieswhen significant nonlinearities exist in the vehicle description. The paper presents a method to detectpossible pilot-induced oscillations of Category II (with rate and position limiting, a phenomenonusually due to a misadaptation between the pilot and the aircraft response during some tasks in whichtight closed loop control of the aircraft is required from the pilot. For the analysis of Pilot in the LoopOscillations an approach, based on robust stability analysis of a system subject to uncertainparameters, is proposed. In this analysis the nonlinear elements are substituted by linear uncertainparameters. This approach assumes that PIO are characterized by a limit cycle behavior.

  9. Magnetically insulated transmission line oscillator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacon, L.D.; Ballard, W.P.; Clark, M.C.; Marder, B.M.

    1987-05-19

    A magnetically insulated transmission line oscillator employs self-generated magnetic fields to generate microwave energy. An anode of the oscillator includes slow-wave structures which are formed of a plurality of thin conductive vanes defining cavities therebetween, and a gap is formed between the anode and a cathode of the oscillator. In response to a pulsed voltage applied to the anode and cathode, self-generated magnetic fields are produced in a cross-field orientation with respect to the orientation of the electric field between the anode and the cathode. The cross-field magnetic fields insulate the flow of electrons in the gap and confine the flow of electrons within the gap. 11 figs.

  10. Graphical tools for TV weather presentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najman, M.

    2010-09-01

    Contemporary meteorology and its media presentation faces in my opinion following key tasks: - Delivering the meteorological information to the end user/spectator in understandable and modern fashion, which follows industry standard of video output (HD, 16:9) - Besides weather icons show also the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, climatological data, satellite and radar images, observed weather as actual as possible. - Does not compromise the accuracy of presented data. - Ability to prepare and adjust the weather show according to actual synoptic situtation. - Ability to refocus and completely adjust the weather show to actual extreme weather events. - Ground map resolution weather data presentation need to be at least 20 m/pixel to be able to follow the numerical weather prediction model resolution. - Ability to switch between different numerical weather prediction models each day, each show or even in the middle of one weather show. - The graphical weather software need to be flexible and fast. The graphical changes nee to be implementable and airable within minutes before the show or even live. These tasks are so demanding and the usual original approach of custom graphics could not deal with it. It was not able to change the show every day, the shows were static and identical day after day. To change the content of the weather show daily was costly and most of the time impossible with the usual approach. The development in this area is fast though and there are several different options for weather predicting organisations such as national meteorological offices and private meteorological companies to solve this problem. What are the ways to solve it? What are the limitations and advantages of contemporary graphical tools for meteorologists? All these questions will be answered.

  11. Under the Weather: Space Weather. The Magnetic Field of the Heliosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Aaron; Goldstein, Melvyn

    2000-01-01

    Normally, only people in the far north can enjoy the dancing beauty of the aurora borealis; however, an intense collision of charged solar particles with the Earth's magnetic field can magnify the Northern Lights so much that they are visible in the southern United States. Behind the light show lies enough flux of energetic particles carried by solar wind to render our planet uninhabitable. The Earth's magnetic field, also known as the magnetosphere, is the only thing that shields us from the Sun. Even the magnetosphere cannot fully guard us from the wrath of the Sun. In March 1989, a powerful solar flare hit Earth with such energy that it burned out transformers in Quebec's electrical grid, plunging Quebec and the eastern United States into darkness for more than 9 hours. Northern lights and energy grid overloads are not the only ways that a solar wind can affect us. A solar storm in July 1999 interrupted radio broadcasts. Solar activity can disorient radars and satellite sensors, break up cell phone connections, and threaten the safety of astronauts. A large bombardment of solar particles can even reduce the amount of ozone in the upper atmosphere. Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), the study of magnetic fields in magnetized plasmas, can help scientists predict, and therefore prepare for, the harmful side effects of solar weather in the magnetosphere.

  12. Spontaneous oscillations in microfluidic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Daniel; Angilella, Jean-Regis; Motter, Adilson

    2017-11-01

    Precisely controlling flows within microfluidic systems is often difficult which typically results in systems being heavily reliant on numerous external pumps and computers. Here, I present a simple microfluidic network that exhibits flow rate switching, bistablity, and spontaneous oscillations controlled by a single pressure. That is, by solely changing the driving pressure, it is possible to switch between an oscillating and steady flow state. Such functionality does not rely on external hardware and may even serve as an on-chip memory or timing mechanism. I use an analytic model and rigorous fluid dynamics simulations to show these results.

  13. Oscillating liquid flow ICF Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petzoldt, R.W.

    1990-01-01

    Oscillating liquid flow in a falling molten salt inertial confinement fusion reactor is predicted to rapidly clear driver beam paths of residual liquid droplets. Oscillating flow will also provide adequate neutron and x-ray protection for the reactor structure with a short (2-m) fall distance permitting an 8 Hz repetition rate. A reactor chamber configuration is presented with specific features to clear the entire heavy-ion beam path of splashed molten salt. The structural components, including the structure between beam ports, are shielded. 3 refs., 12 figs

  14. Neutrino oscillation measurements with reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKeown, R.D. [W. K. Kellogg Radiation Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

    2010-11-01

    Since the first direct observations of antineutrino events by Reines and Cowan in the 1950's, nuclear reactors have been an important tool in the study of neutrino properties. More recently, the study of neutrino oscillations has been a very active area of research. The pioneering observation of oscillations by the KamLAND experiment has provided important information on the neutrino masses and the neutrino mixing matrix. New experiments to study the remaining unknown mixing angle are currently under development. These recent studies and potential future developments will be discussed.

  15. ALG-2 oscillates in subcellular localization, unitemporally with calcium oscillations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    la Cour, Jonas Marstrand; Mollerup, Jens; Berchtold, Martin Werner

    2007-01-01

    discovered that the subcellular distribution of a tagged version of ALG-2 could be directed by physiological external stimuli (including ATP, EGF, prostaglandin, histamine), which provoke intracellular Ca2+ oscillations. Cellular stimulation led to a redistribution of ALG-2 from the cytosol to a punctate...

  16. TOWARDS THRESHOLD FREQUENCY IN CHAOTIC COLPITTS OSCILLATOR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Erik; Tamasevicius, Arunas; Mykolaitis, Gytis

    2007-01-01

    A novel version of chaotic Colpitts oscillator is described. Instead of a linear loss resistor, it includes an extra inductor and diode in the collector circuit of the transistor. The modified circuit in comparison with the common Colpitts oscillator may generate chaotic oscillations at the funda......A novel version of chaotic Colpitts oscillator is described. Instead of a linear loss resistor, it includes an extra inductor and diode in the collector circuit of the transistor. The modified circuit in comparison with the common Colpitts oscillator may generate chaotic oscillations...

  17. Socio-Economic Impacts of Space Weather and User Needs for Space Weather Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.

    2017-12-01

    The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) details the activities, outcomes, and timelines to build a "Space Weather Ready Nation." NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and Abt Associates are working together on two SWAP initiatives: (1) identifying, describing, and quantifying the socio-economic impacts of moderate and severe space weather; and (2) outreach to engineers and operators to better understand user requirements for space weather products and services. Both studies cover four technological sectors (electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and GNSS users) and rely heavily on industry input. Findings from both studies are essential for decreasing vulnerabilities and enhancing preparedness.

  18. Space weather and space anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A large database of anomalies, registered by 220 satellites in different orbits over the period 1971-1994 has been compiled. For the first time, data from 49 Russian Kosmos satellites have been included in a statistical analysis. The database also contains a large set of daily and hourly space weather parameters. A series of statistical analyses made it possible to quantify, for different satellite orbits, space weather conditions on the days characterized by anomaly occurrences. In particular, very intense fluxes (>1000 pfu at energy >10 MeV of solar protons are linked to anomalies registered by satellites in high-altitude (>15000 km, near-polar (inclination >55° orbits typical for navigation satellites, such as those used in the GPS network, NAVSTAR, etc. (the rate of anomalies increases by a factor ~20, and to a much smaller extent to anomalies in geostationary orbits, (they increase by a factor ~4. Direct and indirect connections between anomaly occurrence and geomagnetic perturbations are also discussed.

  19. New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stough, H. Paul, III; Watson, James F., Jr.; Daniels, Taumi S.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Jarrell, Michael A.; Bogue, Rodney K.

    2005-01-01

    Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

  20. Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States); MacDonald, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

  1. Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Watari

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

  2. Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves

  3. Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial enhanced weathering

    OpenAIRE

    Moosdorf, Nils; Renforth, Philip; Hartmann, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Terrestrial enhanced weathering, the spreading of ultramafic silicate rock flour to enhance natural weathering rates, has been suggested as part of a strategy to reduce global atmospheric CO2 levels. We budget potential CO2 sequestration against associated CO2 emissions to assess the net CO2 removal of terrestrial enhanced weathering. We combine global spatial data sets of potential source rocks, transport networks, and application areas with associated CO2 emissions in optimistic and pessimi...

  4. [Effect of weather on odontogenic abscesses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissen, G; Schmidseder, R

    1978-11-01

    An increased frequency of odontogenous abcesses was observed on certain days in the course of routine clinical practice. We therefore investigated the possibility of a statistically significant weather-related odontogenous soft-tissue purulence originating from chronic apical periodontitis. Medical reports of patients treated between 1970 and 1977 were used. Our study indicated that the frequency of odontogenous abcesses was significantly higher with cyclonic weather conditions, i.e., weather with low barometric pressure.

  5. Models of Weather Impact on Air Traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao

    2017-01-01

    Flight delays have been a serious problem in the national airspace system costing about $30B per year. About 70 of the delays are attributed to weather and upto two thirds of these are avoidable. Better decision support tools would reduce these delays and improve air traffic management tools. Such tools would benefit from models of weather impacts on the airspace operations. This presentation discusses use of machine learning methods to mine various types of weather and traffic data to develop such models.

  6. Availability of high quality weather data measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Elsa; Johansen, Jakob Berg; Furbo, Simon

    In the period 2016-2017 the project “Availability of high quality weather data measurements” is carried out at Department of Civil Engineering at the Technical University of Denmark. The aim of the project is to establish measured high quality weather data which will be easily available...... for the building energy branch and the solar energy branch in their efforts to achieve energy savings and for researchers and students carrying out projects where measured high quality weather data are needed....

  7. Optimizing Placement of Weather Stations: Exploring Objective Functions of Meaningful Combinations of Multiple Weather Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, A.; Dietterich, T.; Selker, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Many regions of the world lack ground-based weather data due to inadequate or unreliable weather station networks. For example, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have unreliable, sparse networks of weather stations. The absence of these data can have consequences on weather forecasting, prediction of severe weather events, agricultural planning, and climate change monitoring. The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO.org) project seeks to address these problems by deploying and operating a large network of weather stations throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. To design the TAHMO network, we must determine where to place weather stations within each country. We should consider how we can create accurate spatio-temporal maps of weather data and how to balance the desired accuracy of each weather variable of interest (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, etc.). We can express this problem as a joint optimization of multiple weather variables, given a fixed number of weather stations. We use reanalysis data as the best representation of the "true" weather patterns that occur in the region of interest. For each possible combination of sites, we interpolate the reanalysis data between selected locations and calculate the mean average error between the reanalysis ("true") data and the interpolated data. In order to formulate our multi-variate optimization problem, we explore different methods of weighting each weather variable in our objective function. These methods include systematic variation of weights to determine which weather variables have the strongest influence on the network design, as well as combinations targeted for specific purposes. For example, we can use computed evapotranspiration as a metric that combines many weather variables in a way that is meaningful for agricultural and hydrological applications. We compare the errors of the weather station networks produced by each optimization problem formulation. We also compare these

  8. Neutrino masses and neutrino oscillations

    CERN Document Server

    Di Lella, L

    2000-01-01

    These lectures review direct measurements of neutrino masses and the status of neutrino oscillation searches using both natural neutrino sources (the Sun and cosmic rays interacting in the Earth atmosphere) and artificial neutrinos (produced by nuclear reactors and accelerators). Finally, future experiments and plans are presented. (68 refs).

  9. Harmonic oscillator in Snyder space

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The harmonic oscillator in Snyder space is investigated in its classical and quantum versions. The classical trajectory is obtained and the semiclassical quantization from the phase space trajectories is discussed. An effective cut-off to high frequencies is found. The quantum version is developed and an equivalent usual ...

  10. Compressible flow in fluidic oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graff, Emilio; Hirsch, Damian; Gharib, Mory

    2013-11-01

    We present qualitative observations on the internal flow characteristics of fluidic oscillator geometries commonly referred to as sweeping jets in active flow control applications. We also discuss the effect of the geometry on the output jet in conditions from startup to supersonic exit velocity. Supported by the Boeing Company.

  11. Ellipsoidal basis for isotropic oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallies, W.; Lukac, I.; Pogosyan, G.S.; Sisakyan, A.N.

    1994-01-01

    The solutions of the Schroedinger equation are derived for the isotropic oscillator potential in the ellipsoidal coordinate system. The explicit expression is obtained for the ellipsoidal integrals of motion through the components of the orbital moment and Demkov's tensor. The explicit form of the ellipsoidal basis is given for the lowest quantum numbers. 10 refs.; 1 tab. (author)

  12. The relativistic harmonic oscillator reconsidered

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofsaess, T.

    1978-01-01

    The bound states of scalar quarks interacting through a scalar harmonic oscillator are investigated. In the presence of this interaction the dressed quark propagator differs substantially from the free one. This leads to a Bethe Salpeter equation which does not allow for any stable bound states of positive mass. (orig.) [de

  13. Inverse problem of solar oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sekii, T.; Shibahashi, H.

    1987-01-01

    The authors present some preliminary results of numerical simulation to infer the sound velocity distribution in the solar interior from the oscillation data of the Sun as the inverse problem. They analyze the acoustic potential itself by taking account of some factors other than the sound velocity, and infer the sound velocity distribution in the deep interior of the Sun

  14. Sum rules for neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobzarev, I.Yu.; Martemyanov, B.V.; Okun, L.B.; Schepkin, M.G.

    1981-01-01

    Sum rules for neutrino oscillations are obtained. The derivation of the general form of the s matrix for two stage process lsub(i)sup(-)→ν→lsub(k)sup(+-) (where lsub(i)sup(-)e, μ, tau, ... are initial leptons with flavor i and lsub(k)sup(+-) is final lepton) is presented. The consideration of two stage process lsub(i)sup(-)→ν→lsub(k)sup(+-) gives the possibility to take into account neutrino masses and to obtain the expressions for the oscillating cross sections. In the case of Dirac and left-handed Majorana neutrino is obtained the sum rule for the quantities 1/Vsub(K)σ(lsub(i)sup(-)→lsub(K)sup(+-)), (where Vsub(K) is a velocity of lsub(K)). In the left-handed Majorana neutrino case there is an additional antineutrino admixture leading to lsub(i)sup(-)→lsub(K)sup(+) process. Both components (neutrino and antineutrino) oscillate independently. The sums Σsub(K)1/Vsub(k)σ(lsub(i)sup(-) - lsub(K)sup(+-) then oscillate due to the presence of left-handed antineutrinos and right-handed neutrinos which do not take part in weak interactions. If right-handed currents are added sum rules analogous to considered above may be obtained. All conclusions are valid in the general case when CP is not conserved [ru

  15. Oscillating solitons in nonlinear optics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The study of solitons in those physical systems reveals some exciting .... With the following power series expansions for g(z,t) and f(z,t): g(z,t) = εg1(z,t) + ... If nonlinearity γ (z) is also taken as a function in figure 1b, the periodic and oscillation.

  16. Low-Vibration Oscillating Compressor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studer, P. A.

    1984-01-01

    Oscillating compressor momentum compensated: produces little vibration in its supporting structure. Compressure requires no lubrication and virtually free of wear. Compresses working fluids such as helium, nitrogen or chlorfluorocarbons for Stirling-cycle refrigeration or other purposes. Compressor includes two mutually opposed ferromagnetic pistons of same shape and mass. Electromagnetic flux links both pistons, causing magnetic attraction between them.

  17. Matter effects in neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dass, G.V.

    1989-01-01

    After a review of the relevant aspects of neutrino oscillations for propagation in vacuum and in material media, this paper discuss the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein mechanism and its application to a solution of the solar neutrino puzzle. The elementary level of the talk is suitable to people not working in neutrino physics

  18. Mesino oscillation in MFV SUSY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berger, Joshua [Cornell University, Department of Physics, LEPP, Ithaca, NY (United States); SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Csaki, Csaba; Grossman, Yuval; Heidenreich, Ben [Cornell University, Department of Physics, LEPP, Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2013-04-15

    R-parity violating supersymmetry in a Minimal Flavor Violation paradigm can produce same-sign dilepton signals via direct sbottom-LSP pair production. Such signals arise when the sbottom hadronizes and the resulting mesino oscillates into an antimesino. The first bounds on the sbottom mass are placed in this scenario using current LHC results. (orig.)

  19. Chimera States in Neural Oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahar, Sonya; Glaze, Tera

    2014-03-01

    Chimera states have recently been explored both theoretically and experimentally, in various coupled nonlinear oscillators, ranging from phase-oscillator models to coupled chemical reactions. In a chimera state, both coherent and incoherent (or synchronized and desynchronized) states occur simultaneously in populations of identical oscillators. We investigate chimera behavior in a population of neural oscillators using the Huber-Braun model, a Hodgkin-Huxley-like model originally developed to characterize the temperature-dependent bursting behavior of mammalian cold receptors. One population of neurons is allowed to synchronize, with each neuron receiving input from all the others in its group (global within-group coupling). Subsequently, a second population of identical neurons is placed under an identical global within-group coupling, and the two populations are also coupled to each other (between-group coupling). For certain values of the coupling constants, the neurons in the two populations exhibit radically different synchronization behavior. We will discuss the range of chimera activity in the model, and discuss its implications for actual neural activity, such as unihemispheric sleep.

  20. North Atlantic weather oscillation and human infectious diseases in the Czech Republic, 1951-2003

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hubálek, Zdeněk

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 3 (2005), s. 263-270 ISSN 0393-2990 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA206/03/0726 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : climate change * cluster analysis * human infectious diseases Subject RIV: FN - Epidemiology, Contagious Diseases ; Clinical Immunology Impact factor: 1.361, year: 2005