WorldWideScience

Sample records for souring problems uncertainties

  1. Reservoir souring: Problems, uncertainties and modelling. Part I: Problems and uncertainty involved in prediction. Part II: Preliminary investigations of a computational model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulsen, J.E.; Read, P.A.; Thompson, C.P.; Jelley, C.; Lezeau, P.

    1996-01-01

    The paper relates to improved oil recovery (IOR) techniques by mathematical modelling. The uncertainty involved in modelling of reservoir souring is discussed. IOR processes are speculated to influence a souring process in a positive direction. Most models do not take into account pH in reservoir fluids, and thus do not account for partitioning behaviour of sulfide. Also, sulfide is antagonistic to bacterial metabolism and impedes to bacterial metabolism and impedes the sulfate reduction rate, this may be an important factor in modelling. Biofilms are thought to play a crucial role in a reservoir souring process. Biofilm in a reservoir matrix is different from biofilm in open systems. This has major impact on microbial impact on microbial transport and behaviour. Studies on microbial activity in reservoir matrices must be carried out with model cores, in order to mimic a realistic situation. Sufficient data do not exist today. The main conclusion is that a model does not reflect a true situation before the nature of these elements is understood. A simplified version of an Norwegian developed biofilm model is discussed. The model incorporates all the important physical phenomena studied in the above references such as bacteria growth limited by nutrients and/or energy sources and hydrogen sulfide adsorption. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

  2. Reservoir souring: Problems, uncertainties and modelling. Part I: Problems and uncertainty involved in prediction. Part II: Preliminary investigations of a computational model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulsen, J.E. [Rogalandsforskning, Stavanger (Norway); Read, P.A.; Thompson, C.P.; Jelley, C.; Lezeau, P.

    1996-12-31

    The paper relates to improved oil recovery (IOR) techniques by mathematical modelling. The uncertainty involved in modelling of reservoir souring is discussed. IOR processes are speculated to influence a souring process in a positive direction. Most models do not take into account pH in reservoir fluids, and thus do not account for partitioning behaviour of sulfide. Also, sulfide is antagonistic to bacterial metabolism and impedes to bacterial metabolism and impedes the sulfate reduction rate, this may be an important factor in modelling. Biofilms are thought to play a crucial role in a reservoir souring process. Biofilm in a reservoir matrix is different from biofilm in open systems. This has major impact on microbial impact on microbial transport and behaviour. Studies on microbial activity in reservoir matrices must be carried out with model cores, in order to mimic a realistic situation. Sufficient data do not exist today. The main conclusion is that a model does not reflect a true situation before the nature of these elements is understood. A simplified version of an Norwegian developed biofilm model is discussed. The model incorporates all the important physical phenomena studied in the above references such as bacteria growth limited by nutrients and/or energy sources and hydrogen sulfide adsorption. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Inverse Problems and Uncertainty Quantification

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2014-01-06

    In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) - the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) modelare strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. This is especially the case as together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time- consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling- free non-linear Bayesian update is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisa- tion to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and quadratic Bayesian update on the small but taxing example of the chaotic Lorenz 84 model, where we experiment with the influence of different observation or measurement operators on the update.

  4. Inverse Problems and Uncertainty Quantification

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander; Matthies, Hermann G.

    2014-01-01

    In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) - the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) modelare strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. This is especially the case as together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time- consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling- free non-linear Bayesian update is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisa- tion to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and quadratic Bayesian update on the small but taxing example of the chaotic Lorenz 84 model, where we experiment with the influence of different observation or measurement operators on the update.

  5. Inverse problems and uncertainty quantification

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2013-12-18

    In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)— the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. This is especially the case as together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time- consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling- free non-linear Bayesian update is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisa- tion to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and quadratic Bayesian update on the small but taxing example of the chaotic Lorenz 84 model, where we experiment with the influence of different observation or measurement operators on the update.

  6. Problems Caused by Microbes and Treatment Strategies Monitoring and Preventing Reservoir Souring Using Molecular Microbiological Methods (MMM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gittel, Antje

    The injection of seawater during the process of secondary oil recovery in offshore oilfields supplies huge amounts of sulphate to the prokaryotic reservoir communities. Together with the presence of oil organics and their degradation products as electron donors, this facilitates the enrichment and growth of sulphate-reducing prokaryotes (SRP) in the reservoir, as well as in pipings and top-side installations (Sunde and Torsvik, 2005; Vance and Thrasher, 2005). The activity of SRP causes severe economic problems due to the reactivity and toxicity of the produced hydrogen sulphide (H2S), one of the major problems being reservoir souring. Besides the use of broad-spectrum biocides or inhibitors for sulphate reduction, the addition of nitrate effectively decreased the net production of H2S in model column studies (Myhr et al., 2002; Hubert et al., 2005; Dunsmore et al., 2006) and field trials (Telang et al., 1997; Bødtker et al., 2008). The mechanisms by which nitrate addition might affect souring control are (i) the stimulation of heterotrophic nitrate-reducing bacteria (hNRB) that outcompete SRP for electron donors, (ii) the activity of nitrate-reducing, sulphide-oxidising bacteria (NR-SOB), and (iii) the inhibition of SRP by the production of nitrite and nitrous oxides (Sunde and Torsvik, 2005; Hubert and Voordouw, 2007).

  7. Modeling of uncertainties in statistical inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaipio, Jari

    2008-01-01

    In all real world problems, the models that tie the measurements to the unknowns of interest, are at best only approximations for reality. While moderate modeling and approximation errors can be tolerated with stable problems, inverse problems are a notorious exception. Typical modeling errors include inaccurate geometry, unknown boundary and initial data, properties of noise and other disturbances, and simply the numerical approximations of the physical models. In principle, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, in which all uncertainties are modeled as random variables, is capable of handling these uncertainties. Depending on the type of uncertainties, however, different strategies may be adopted. In this paper we give an overview of typical modeling errors and related strategies within the Bayesian framework.

  8. Uncertainty Quantification with Applications to Engineering Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bigoni, Daniele

    in measurements, predictions and manufacturing, and we can say that any dynamical system used in engineering is subject to some of these uncertainties. The first part of this work presents an overview of the mathematical framework used in Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) analysis and introduces the spectral tensor...... and thus the UQ analysis of the associated systems will benefit greatly from the application of methods which require few function evaluations. We first consider the propagation of the uncertainty and the sensitivity analysis of the non-linear dynamics of railway vehicles with suspension components whose......-scale problems, where efficient methods are necessary with today’s computational resources. The outcome of this work was also the creation of several freely available Python modules for Uncertainty Quantification, which are listed and described in the appendix....

  9. Linear Programming Problems for Generalized Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thipwiwatpotjana, Phantipa

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainty occurs when there is more than one realization that can represent an information. This dissertation concerns merely discrete realizations of an uncertainty. Different interpretations of an uncertainty and their relationships are addressed when the uncertainty is not a probability of each realization. A well known model that can handle…

  10. The cost of uncertainty in capacity expansion problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenhung Wang [National Chung Cheng Univ., Dept. of Business Administration, Chia-Yi (Taiwan); Sparrow, F.T. [Purdue Univ., School of Industrial Engineering, West Lafayette, IN (United States)

    1999-07-01

    The goals of this paper are to present a two-stage programming model of the capacity expansion problem under uncertainty of demand and explore the impact of the uncertainty on cost. The model is a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model with the consideration of uncertainty used to maximise the expected presented value of utility profits over the planning horizon, under the constraints of rate of return and reserve margin regulation. The results reveal that the uncertainty harms the profit seriously. In this paper both microeconomics and mathematical programming are used to analyse the problem. We try to observe the economic behaviour of the utility with uncertainty involved. We also investigate the influence on the cost of uncertainty of each economic parameter. (Author)

  11. Generalized production planning problem under interval uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir A. Abass

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Data in many real life engineering and economical problems suffer from inexactness. Herein we assume that we are given some intervals in which the data can simultaneously and independently perturb. We consider the generalized production planning problem with interval data. The interval data are in both of the objective function and constraints. The existing results concerning the qualitative and quantitative analysis of basic notions in parametric production planning problem. These notions are the set of feasible parameters, the solvability set and the stability set of the first kind.

  12. Optimal infrastructure maintenance scheduling problem under budget uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-01

    This research addresses a general class of infrastructure asset management problems. Infrastructure : agencies usually face budget uncertainties that will eventually lead to suboptimal planning if : maintenance decisions are made without taking the u...

  13. Manufacturing Data Uncertainties Propagation Method in Burn-Up Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Frosio

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A nuclear data-based uncertainty propagation methodology is extended to enable propagation of manufacturing/technological data (TD uncertainties in a burn-up calculation problem, taking into account correlation terms between Boltzmann and Bateman terms. The methodology is applied to reactivity and power distributions in a Material Testing Reactor benchmark. Due to the inherent statistical behavior of manufacturing tolerances, Monte Carlo sampling method is used for determining output perturbations on integral quantities. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA is performed for each manufacturing parameter and allows identifying and ranking the influential parameters whose tolerances need to be better controlled. We show that the overall impact of some TD uncertainties, such as uranium enrichment, or fuel plate thickness, on the reactivity is negligible because the different core areas induce compensating effects on the global quantity. However, local quantities, such as power distributions, are strongly impacted by TD uncertainty propagations. For isotopic concentrations, no clear trends appear on the results.

  14. Investigation of Free Particle Propagator with Generalized Uncertainty Problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassanabadi, H.; Ghobakhloo, F.

    2016-01-01

    We consider the Schrödinger equation with a generalized uncertainty principle for a free particle. We then transform the problem into a second-order ordinary differential equation and thereby obtain the corresponding propagator. The result of ordinary quantum mechanics is recovered for vanishing minimal length parameter.

  15. Particle Swarm Optimization and Uncertainty Assessment in Inverse Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José L. G. Pallero

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Most inverse problems in the industry (and particularly in geophysical exploration are highly underdetermined because the number of model parameters too high to achieve accurate data predictions and because the sampling of the data space is scarce and incomplete; it is always affected by different kinds of noise. Additionally, the physics of the forward problem is a simplification of the reality. All these facts result in that the inverse problem solution is not unique; that is, there are different inverse solutions (called equivalent, compatible with the prior information that fits the observed data within similar error bounds. In the case of nonlinear inverse problems, these equivalent models are located in disconnected flat curvilinear valleys of the cost-function topography. The uncertainty analysis consists of obtaining a representation of this complex topography via different sampling methodologies. In this paper, we focus on the use of a particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm to sample the region of equivalence in nonlinear inverse problems. Although this methodology has a general purpose, we show its application for the uncertainty assessment of the solution of a geophysical problem concerning gravity inversion in sedimentary basins, showing that it is possible to efficiently perform this task in a sampling-while-optimizing mode. Particularly, we explain how to use and analyze the geophysical models sampled by exploratory PSO family members to infer different descriptors of nonlinear uncertainty.

  16. Reservoir souring: it is all about risk mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuijvenhoven, Cor [Shell (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    The presence of H2S in produced fluid can be due to various sources, among which are heat/rock interaction and leaks from other reservoirs. This paper discusses the reasons, risk assessment and tools for mitigating reservoir souring. Uncontrolled microorganism activity can cause a sweet reservoir (without H2S) to become sour (production of H2S). The development of bacteria is one of the main causes of reservoir souring in unconventional gas fields. It is difficult to predict souring in seawater due to produced water re-injection (PWRI). Risk assessment and modeling techniques for reservoir souring are discussed. Some of the factors controlling H2S production include injection location, presence of scavenging minerals and biogenic souring. Mitigation methods such as biocide treatment of injection water, sulphate removal from seawater, microbial monitoring techniques such as the molecular microbiology method (MMM), and enumeration by serial dilution are explained. In summary, it can be concluded that reservoir souring is a long-term problem and should be assessed at the beginning of operations.

  17. Mayer control problem with probabilistic uncertainty on initial positions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marigonda, Antonio; Quincampoix, Marc

    2018-03-01

    In this paper we introduce and study an optimal control problem in the Mayer's form in the space of probability measures on Rn endowed with the Wasserstein distance. Our aim is to study optimality conditions when the knowledge of the initial state and velocity is subject to some uncertainty, which are modeled by a probability measure on Rd and by a vector-valued measure on Rd, respectively. We provide a characterization of the value function of such a problem as unique solution of an Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation in the space of measures in a suitable viscosity sense. Some applications to a pursuit-evasion game with uncertainty in the state space is also discussed, proving the existence of a value for the game.

  18. Compromise decision support problems for hierarchical design involving uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadde, S.; Allen, J. K.; Mistree, F.

    1994-08-01

    In this paper an extension to the traditional compromise Decision Support Problem (DSP) formulation is presented. Bayesian statistics is used in the formulation to model uncertainties associated with the information being used. In an earlier paper a compromise DSP that accounts for uncertainty using fuzzy set theory was introduced. The Bayesian Decision Support Problem is described in this paper. The method for hierarchical design is demonstrated by using this formulation to design a portal frame. The results are discussed and comparisons are made with those obtained using the fuzzy DSP. Finally, the efficacy of incorporating Bayesian statistics into the traditional compromise DSP formulation is discussed and some pending research issues are described. Our emphasis in this paper is on the method rather than the results per se.

  19. Distributionally Robust Joint Chance Constrained Problem under Moment Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke-wei Ding

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We discuss and develop the convex approximation for robust joint chance constraints under uncertainty of first- and second-order moments. Robust chance constraints are approximated by Worst-Case CVaR constraints which can be reformulated by a semidefinite programming. Then the chance constrained problem can be presented as semidefinite programming. We also find that the approximation for robust joint chance constraints has an equivalent individual quadratic approximation form.

  20. Robust Optimization Model for Production Planning Problem under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pembe GÜÇLÜ

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Conditions of businesses change very quickly. To take into account the uncertainty engendered by changes has become almost a rule while planning. Robust optimization techniques that are methods of handling uncertainty ensure to produce less sensitive results to changing conditions. Production planning, is to decide from which product, when and how much will be produced, with a most basic definition. Modeling and solution of the Production planning problems changes depending on structure of the production processes, parameters and variables. In this paper, it is aimed to generate and apply scenario based robust optimization model for capacitated two-stage multi-product production planning problem under parameter and demand uncertainty. With this purpose, production planning problem of a textile company that operate in İzmir has been modeled and solved, then deterministic scenarios’ and robust method’s results have been compared. Robust method has provided a production plan that has higher cost but, will result close to feasible and optimal for most of the different scenarios in the future.

  1. Flow-shop scheduling problem under uncertainties: Review and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliana María González-Neira

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Among the different tasks in production logistics, job scheduling is one of the most important at the operational decision-making level to enable organizations to achieve competiveness. Scheduling consists in the allocation of limited resources to activities over time in order to achieve one or more optimization objectives. Flow-shop (FS scheduling problems encompass the sequencing processes in environments in which the activities or operations are performed in a serial flow. This type of configuration includes assembly lines and the chemical, electronic, food, and metallurgical industries, among others. Scheduling has been mostly investigated for the deterministic cases, in which all parameters are known in advance and do not vary over time. Nevertheless, in real-world situations, events are frequently subject to uncertainties that can affect the decision-making process. Thus, it is important to study scheduling and sequencing activities under uncertainties since they can cause infeasibilities and disturbances. The purpose of this paper is to provide a general overview of the FS scheduling problem under uncertainties and its role in production logistics and to draw up opportunities for further research. To this end, 100 papers about FS and flexible flow-shop scheduling problems published from 2001 to October 2016 were analyzed and classified. Trends in the reviewed literature are presented and finally some research opportunities in the field are proposed.

  2. Bayesian Mars for uncertainty quantification in stochastic transport problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stripling, Hayes F.; McClarren, Ryan G.

    2011-01-01

    We present a method for estimating solutions to partial differential equations with uncertain parameters using a modification of the Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (BMARS) emulator. The BMARS algorithm uses Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to construct a basis function composed of polynomial spline functions, for which derivatives and integrals are straightforward to compute. We use these calculations and a modification of the curve-fitting BMARS algorithm to search for a basis function (response surface) which, in combination with its derivatives/integrals, satisfies a governing differential equation and specified boundary condition. We further show that this fit can be improved by enforcing a conservation or other physics-based constraint. Our results indicate that estimates to solutions of simple first order partial differential equations (without uncertainty) can be efficiently computed with very little regression error. We then extend the method to estimate uncertainties in the solution to a pure absorber transport problem in a medium with uncertain cross-section. We describe and compare two strategies for propagating the uncertain cross-section through the BMARS algorithm; the results from each method are in close comparison with analytic results. We discuss the scalability of the algorithm to parallel architectures and the applicability of the two strategies to larger problems with more degrees of uncertainty. (author)

  3. Inverse problem and uncertainty quantification: application to compressible gas dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birolleau, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    This thesis deals with uncertainty propagation and the resolution of inverse problems together with their respective acceleration via Polynomial Chaos. The object of this work is to present a state of the art and a numerical analysis of this stochastic spectral method, in order to understand its pros and cons when tackling the probabilistic study of hydrodynamical instabilities in Richtmyer-Meshkov shock tube experiments. The first chapter is introductory and allows understanding the stakes of being able to accurately take into account uncertainties in compressible gas dynamics simulations. The second chapter is both an illustrative state of the art on generalized Polynomial Chaos and a full numerical analysis of the method keeping in mind the final application on hydrodynamical problems developing shocks and discontinuous solutions. In this chapter, we introduce a new method, naming iterative generalized Polynomial Chaos, which ensures a gain with respect to generalized Polynomial Chaos, especially with non smooth solutions. Chapter three is closely related to an accepted publication in Communication in Computational Physics. It deals with stochastic inverse problems and introduces bayesian inference. It also emphasizes the possibility of accelerating the bayesian inference thanks to iterative generalized Polynomial Chaos described in the previous chapter. Theoretical convergence is established and illustrated on several test-cases. The last chapter consists in the application of the above materials to a complex and ambitious compressible gas dynamics problem (Richtmyer-Meshkov shock tube configuration) together with a deepened study of the physico-numerical phenomenon at stake. Finally, in the appendix, we also present some interesting research paths we quickly tackled during this thesis. (author) [fr

  4. Analogy as a strategy for supporting complex problem solving under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Joel; Paletz, Susannah B F; Schunn, Christian D

    2012-11-01

    Complex problem solving in naturalistic environments is fraught with uncertainty, which has significant impacts on problem-solving behavior. Thus, theories of human problem solving should include accounts of the cognitive strategies people bring to bear to deal with uncertainty during problem solving. In this article, we present evidence that analogy is one such strategy. Using statistical analyses of the temporal dynamics between analogy and expressed uncertainty in the naturalistic problem-solving conversations among scientists on the Mars Rover Mission, we show that spikes in expressed uncertainty reliably predict analogy use (Study 1) and that expressed uncertainty reduces to baseline levels following analogy use (Study 2). In addition, in Study 3, we show with qualitative analyses that this relationship between uncertainty and analogy is not due to miscommunication-related uncertainty but, rather, is primarily concentrated on substantive problem-solving issues. Finally, we discuss a hypothesis about how analogy might serve as an uncertainty reduction strategy in naturalistic complex problem solving.

  5. Some effects of winter grazing of Dohne sour veld | PF | African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The utilisation of spared sour veld poses practical problems. As a result of the development of high level protein or nitrogen supplements it has however become possible to efficiently graze spared veld. Results of experiments during three winters where spared sour veld was grazed off either by sheep or by cattle are given.

  6. Computational chemical product design problems under property uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frutiger, Jerome; Cignitti, Stefano; Abildskov, Jens

    2017-01-01

    Three different strategies of how to combine computational chemical product design with Monte Carlo based methods for uncertainty analysis of chemical properties are outlined. One method consists of a computer-aided molecular design (CAMD) solution and a post-processing property uncertainty...... fluid design. While the higher end of the uncertainty range of the process model output is similar for the best performing fluids, the lower end of the uncertainty range differs largely....

  7. Decision criteria under uncertainty and the climate problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bretteville, Camilla

    1999-11-01

    This working paper examines some of the decision criteria suggested by theories on decision making under uncertainty. This is done by applying the criteria to the problem of global warming. It is shown that even if there was a benevolent planner who is both supranational and supra generational and even if he had a well defined inter generational welfare function, there are still remaining problems. The question asked is: If there were a benevolent planner, would he know the best climate policy for the world today. The main discussion abstracts from all other complications and focuses on the lack of certainty regarding impacts of greenhouse gas emissions and the effectiveness of policy. A very simplified example of a game against nature is constructed. It has two possible policy choices. One can either try to prevent global warming, or one can choose to do nothing. The future state of the world is uncertain and the chosen policy might affect the outcome in each state. The framing of the example is such that one should expect a policy of action to be preferred rather than a no-action policy, however this is not always the case. It is shown that the preferred policy choice is very much dependent on the choice of decision criterion, the magnitude of costs and of the framing. 3 tabs., 23 refs

  8. Survey of Existing Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities for Army Relevant Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-27

    first of these introductory sections is an overview of UQ and its various methods. The second of these discusses issues pertaining to the use of UQ...can be readily assessed, as well as the variance or other statistical measures of the distribu- tion of parameters. The uncertainty in the parameters is... statistics of the outputs of these methods, such as the moments of the probability distributions of model outputs. The module does not explicitly support

  9. Uncertainty Quantification in Control Problems for Flocking Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giacomo Albi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The optimal control of flocking models with random inputs is investigated from a numerical point of view. The effect of uncertainty in the interaction parameters is studied for a Cucker-Smale type model using a generalized polynomial chaos (gPC approach. Numerical evidence of threshold effects in the alignment dynamic due to the random parameters is given. The use of a selective model predictive control permits steering of the system towards the desired state even in unstable regimes.

  10. Sour pressure swing adsorption process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhadra, Shubhra Jyoti; Wright, Andrew David; Hufton, Jeffrey Raymond; Kloosterman, Jeffrey William; Amy, Fabrice; Weist, Jr., Edward Landis

    2017-11-07

    Methods and apparatuses for separating CO.sub.2 and sulfur-containing compounds from a synthesis gas obtained from gasification of a carbonaceous feedstock. The primary separating steps are performed using a sour pressure swing adsorption (SPSA) system, followed by an acid gas enrichment system and a sulfur removal unit. The SPSA system includes multiple pressure equalization steps and a rinse step using a rinse gas that is supplied from a source other than directly from one of the adsorber beds of the SPSA system.

  11. The chemistry of sour taste and the strategy to reduce the sour taste of beer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hong; Liu, Fang

    2015-10-15

    The contributions of free hydrogen ions, undissociated hydrogen ions in protonated acid species, and anionic acid species to sour taste were studied through sensory experiments. According to tasting results, it can be inferred that the basic substance producing a sour taste is the hydrogen ion, including free hydrogen ions and undissociated hydrogen ions. The intensity of a sour taste is determined by the total concentration of free hydrogen ions and undissociated hydrogen ions. The anionic acid species (without hydrogen ions) does not produce a sour taste but can intensify or weaken the intensity of a sour taste. It seems that hydroxyl or conjugated groups in anionic acid species can intensify the sour taste produced by hydrogen ions. The following strategy to reduce the sensory sourness is advanced: not only reduce free hydrogen ions, namely elevate pH value, but also reduce the undissociated hydrogen ions contained in protonated acid species. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Propagation of uncertainties in problems of structural reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazumdar, M.; Marshall, J.A.; Chay, S.C.

    1978-01-01

    The problem of controlling a variable Y such that the probability of its exceeding a specified design limit L is very small, is treated. This variable is related to a set of random variables Xsub(i) by means of a known function Y=f(Xsub(i)). The following approximate methods are considered for estimating the propagation of error in the Xsub(i)'s through the function f(-): linearization; method of moments; Monte Carlo methods; numerical integration. Response surface and associated design of experiments problems as well as statistical inference problems are discussed. (Auth.)

  13. Flow-shop scheduling problem under uncertainties: Review and trends

    OpenAIRE

    Eliana María González-Neira; Jairo R. Montoya-Torres; David Barrera

    2017-01-01

    Among the different tasks in production logistics, job scheduling is one of the most important at the operational decision-making level to enable organizations to achieve competiveness. Scheduling consists in the allocation of limited resources to activities over time in order to achieve one or more optimization objectives. Flow-shop (FS) scheduling problems encompass the sequencing processes in environments in which the activities or operations are performed in a serial flow. This type of co...

  14. Uncertainties

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    To reflect this uncertainty in the climate scenarios, the use of AOGCMs that explicitly simulate the carbon cycle and chemistry of all the substances are needed. The Hadley Centre has developed a version of the climate model that allows the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle and its feedback into climate, to be ...

  15. Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, T.A. da

    1988-01-01

    The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt

  16. The students' ability in the mathematical literacy for uncertainty problems on the PISA adaptation test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julie, Hongki; Sanjaya, Febi; Anggoro, Ant. Yudhi

    2017-08-01

    One of purposes of this study was to describe the solution profile of the junior high school students for the PISA adaptation test. The procedures conducted by researchers to achieve this objective were (1) adapting the PISA test, (2) validating the adapting PISA test, (3) asking junior high school students to do the adapting PISA test, and (4) making the students' solution profile. The PISA problems for mathematics could be classified into four areas, namely quantity, space and shape, change and relationship, and uncertainty. The research results that would be presented in this paper were the result test for uncertainty problems. In the adapting PISA test, there were fifteen questions. Subjects in this study were 18 students from 11 junior high schools in Yogyakarta, Central Java, and Banten. The type of research that used by the researchers was a qualitative research. For the first uncertainty problem in the adapting test, 66.67% of students reached level 3. For the second uncertainty problem in the adapting test, 44.44% of students achieved level 4, and 33.33% of students reached level 3. For the third uncertainty problem in the adapting test n, 38.89% of students achieved level 5, 11.11% of students reached level 4, and 5.56% of students achieved level 3. For the part a of the fourth uncertainty problem in the adapting test, 72.22% of students reached level 4 and for the part b of the fourth uncertainty problem in the adapting test, 83.33% students achieved level 4.

  17. Modeling risk and uncertainty in designing reverse logistics problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Nazari Gooran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Increasing attention to environmental problems and social responsibility lead to appear reverse logistic (RL issues in designing supply chain which, in most recently, has received considerable attention from both academicians and practitioners. In this paper, a multi-product reverse logistic network design model is developed; then a hybrid method including Chance-constrained programming, Genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation, are proposed to solve the developed model. The proposed model is solved for risk-averse and risk-seeking decision makers by conditional value at risk, sum of the excepted value and standard deviation, respectively. Comparisons of the results show that minimizing the costs had no direct relation with the kind of decision makers; however, in the most cases, risk-seeking decision maker gained more return products than risk-averse ones. It is clear that by increasing returned products to the chain, production costs of new products and material will be reduced and also by this act, environmental benefits will be created.

  18. Corrosion of steels in sour gas environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twigg, R.J.

    1984-03-01

    This report presents a study on the effects of sour gas environments on steels. Emphasis is placed on alloys commonly used in the heavy water, sour gas and refining industries. In addition, 'high strength, low alloy' steels, known as 'oil country tubular goods', are included. Reference is made to the effects of hydrogen sulphide environments on austenitic steels and on certain specialty steels. Theories of hydrogen-related cracking mechanisms are outlined with emphasis placed on sulphide stress cracking and hydrogen induced cracking in carbon and low alloy steels. Methods of controlling sulphide stress cracking and hydrogen induced cracking are addressed separately. Case histories from the heavy water, refining, and sour gas industries are used to illustrate operating experience and failure mechanisms. Finally, recommendations, based largely on the author's industrial experience, are made with respect to quality assurance and inspection requirements for sour service components. Only published literature was surveyed. Abstracts were made of all references, reviewing the major sources in detail

  19. SOUR MILK FORMULAS IN NUTRITION OF INFANTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.F. Lukushkina

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Health-giving properties of fermented food are related to the fact, that acid medium improves assimilation of protein and fat, increases absorption of iron and zinc, improves digestion. But the kefir and other sour milk food based on the whole milk can’t be used in nutrition of infants as human milk substitute because of high content of protein, high osmolarity, deficiency of vitamins and microelements. The article describes the results of clinical approbation of new modern sour milk formula «NAN sour milk», containing proper amount of high-quality protein (OptiPro, enriched with lactalbumin and all sufficient vitamins and microelements. This mixture contains also probiotics (B. lactis, providing high functionality of this food. Key words: infants, sour milk formula, nutrition.(Voprosy sovremennoi pediatrii — Current Pediatrics. 2010;9(1:136-141

  20. Bortezomib alters sour taste sensitivity in mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akihiro Ohishi

    Full Text Available Chemotherapy-induced taste disorder is one of the critical issues in cancer therapy. Bortezomib, a proteasome inhibitor, is a key agent in multiple myeloma therapy, but it induces a taste disorder. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of bortezomib-induced taste disorder and the underlying mechanism in mice. Among the five basic tastes, the sour taste sensitivity of mice was significantly increased by bortezomib administration. In bortezomib-administered mice, protein expression of PKD2L1 was increased. The increased sour taste sensitivity induced by bortezomib returned to the control level on cessation of its administration. These results suggest that an increase in protein expression of PKD2L1 enhances the sour taste sensitivity in bortezomib-administered mice, and this alteration is reversed on cessation of its administration. Keywords: Taste disorder, Bortezomib, Sour taste, Chemotherapy, Adverse effect

  1. Uncertainty dimensions of information behaviour in a group based problem solving context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyldegård, Jette

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a study of uncertainty dimensions of information behaviour in a group based problem solving context. After a presentation of the cognitive uncertainty dimension underlying Kuhlthau's ISP-model, uncertainty factors associated with personality, the work task situation and social...... members' experiences of uncertainty differ from the individual information seeker in Kuhlthau's ISP-model, and how this experience may be related to personal, work task and social factors. A number of methods have been employed to collect data on each group member during the assignment process......: a demographic survey, a personality test, 3 process surveys, 3 diaries and 3 interviews. It was found that group members' experiences of uncertainty did not correspond with the ISP-model in that other factors beyond the mere information searching process seemed to intermingle with the complex process...

  2. A note on the strong formulation of stochastic control problems with model uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Sirbu, Mihai

    2014-01-01

    We consider a  Markovian stochastic control problem with  model uncertainty. The controller (intelligent player) observes only the state, and, therefore, uses feedback (closed-loop) strategies.  The adverse player (nature) who does not have a direct interest in the payoff, chooses open-loop controls that parametrize Knightian uncertainty. This creates a two-step optimization  problem (like half of a game) over feedback strategies and open-loop controls. The main result is to sh...

  3. Nuclear data uncertainties propagation methods in Boltzmann/Bateman coupled problems: Application to reactivity in MTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frosio, Thomas; Bonaccorsi, Thomas; Blaise, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Hybrid methods are developed for uncertainty propagation. • These methods take into account the flux perturbation in the coupled problem. • We show that OAT and MC methods give coherent results, except for Pearson correlations. • Local sensitivity analysis is performed. - Abstract: A novel method has been developed to calculate sensitivity coefficients in coupled Boltzmann/Bateman problem for nuclear data (ND) uncertainties propagation on the reactivity. Different uncertainty propagation methodologies, such as One-At-a-Time (OAT) and hybrid Monte-Carlo/deterministic methods have been tested and are discussed on an actual example of ND uncertainty problem on a Material Testing Reactor (MTR) benchmark. Those methods, unlike total Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for uncertainty propagation and quantification (UQ), allow obtaining sensitivity coefficients, as well as Bravais–Pearson correlations values between Boltzmann and Bateman, during the depletion calculation for global neutronics parameters such as the effective multiplication coefficient. The methodologies are compared to a pure MC sampling method, usually considered as the “reference” method. It is shown that methodologies can seriously underestimate propagated variances, when Bravais–Pearson correlations on ND are not taken into account in the UQ process.

  4. Standard Error Computations for Uncertainty Quantification in Inverse Problems: Asymptotic Theory vs. Bootstrapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, H T; Holm, Kathleen; Robbins, Danielle

    2010-11-01

    We computationally investigate two approaches for uncertainty quantification in inverse problems for nonlinear parameter dependent dynamical systems. We compare the bootstrapping and asymptotic theory approaches for problems involving data with several noise forms and levels. We consider both constant variance absolute error data and relative error which produces non-constant variance data in our parameter estimation formulations. We compare and contrast parameter estimates, standard errors, confidence intervals, and computational times for both bootstrapping and asymptotic theory methods.

  5. SOUR MILK FOODSTUFF IN INFANTS DIET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. E. Borovik

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Products of sour milk are widely used in nutrition of infants. They are an important source of digestible proteins, vitamins and potassium. Regular intake of sour milk foodstuff has favorable influence on intestinal microbiocenosis, functioning of the immune system, improves secretory and motor functions of the gastrointestinal tract, stimulates appetites and increases bioavailability of micronutrients. Modern line in functional diet is enrichment of sour milk foodstuff with probiotics. Strains of microorganisms used in manufacture of products with probiotic action are proven to be safe and effective in prophylaxis and treatment of various diseases. Modern data which confirm prophylactic and medicinal properties of probiotic-containing foodstuff, especially bioyoghurts for children, are shown in this article.

  6. Uncertainty principles for inverse source problems for electromagnetic and elastic waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griesmaier, Roland; Sylvester, John

    2018-06-01

    In isotropic homogeneous media, far fields of time-harmonic electromagnetic waves radiated by compactly supported volume currents, and elastic waves radiated by compactly supported body force densities can be modelled in very similar fashions. Both are projected restricted Fourier transforms of vector-valued source terms. In this work we generalize two types of uncertainty principles recently developed for far fields of scalar-valued time-harmonic waves in Griesmaier and Sylvester (2017 SIAM J. Appl. Math. 77 154–80) to this vector-valued setting. These uncertainty principles yield stability criteria and algorithms for splitting far fields radiated by collections of well-separated sources into the far fields radiated by individual source components, and for the restoration of missing data segments. We discuss proper regularization strategies for these inverse problems, provide stability estimates based on the new uncertainty principles, and comment on reconstruction schemes. A numerical example illustrates our theoretical findings.

  7. Strategies to diagnose and control microbial souring in natural gas storage reservoirs and produced water systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morris, E.A.; Derr, R.M.; Pope, D.H.

    1995-12-31

    Hydrogen sulfide production (souring) in natural gas storage reservoirs and produced water systems is a safety and environmental problem that can lead to operational shutdown when local hydrogen sulfide standards are exceeded. Systems affected by microbial souring have historically been treated using biocides that target the general microbial community. However, requirements for more environmentally friendly solutions have led to treatment strategies in which sulfide production can be controlled with minimal impact to the system and environment. Some of these strategies are based on microbial and/or nutritional augmentation of the sour environment. Through research sponsored by the Gas Research Institute (GRI) in Chicago, Illinois, methods have been developed for early detection of microbial souring in natural gas storage reservoirs, and a variety of mitigation strategies have been evaluated. The effectiveness of traditional biocide treatment in gas storage reservoirs was shown to depend heavily on the methods by which the chemical is applied. An innovative strategy using nitrate was tested and proved ideal for produced water and wastewater systems. Another strategy using elemental iodine was effective for sulfide control in evaporation ponds and is currently being tested in microbially sour natural gas storage wells.

  8. Sweet and sour taste preferences of children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liem, D.G.

    2004-01-01

    In the industrialized countries children have many foods to choose from, both healthy and unhealthy products, these choices mainly depend on children's taste preferences. The present thesis focused on preferences for sweet and sour taste of young children (4- to 12-years of age) living in the US and

  9. 21 CFR 131.160 - Sour cream.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... CONSUMPTION MILK AND CREAM Requirements for Specific Standardized Milk and Cream § 131.160 Sour cream. (a... of analysis. Referenced methods in paragraph (c) (1) and (2) of this section are from “Official Methods of Analysis of the Association of Official Analytical Chemists,” 13th Ed. (1980), which is...

  10. A Genetic-Algorithms-Based Approach for Programming Linear and Quadratic Optimization Problems with Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weihua Jin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a genetic-algorithms-based approach as an all-purpose problem-solving method for operation programming problems under uncertainty. The proposed method was applied for management of a municipal solid waste treatment system. Compared to the traditional interactive binary analysis, this approach has fewer limitations and is able to reduce the complexity in solving the inexact linear programming problems and inexact quadratic programming problems. The implementation of this approach was performed using the Genetic Algorithm Solver of MATLAB (trademark of MathWorks. The paper explains the genetic-algorithms-based method and presents details on the computation procedures for each type of inexact operation programming problems. A comparison of the results generated by the proposed method based on genetic algorithms with those produced by the traditional interactive binary analysis method is also presented.

  11. Uncertainty quantification for criticality problems using non-intrusive and adaptive Polynomial Chaos techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilli, L.; Lathouwers, D.; Kloosterman, J.L.; Hagen, T.H.J.J. van der; Koning, A.J.; Rochman, D.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Non-intrusive spectral techniques are applied to perform UQ of criticality problems. ► A new adaptive algorithm based on the definition of sparse grid is derived. ► The method is applied to two reference criticality problems. - Abstract: In this paper we present the implementation and the application of non-intrusive spectral techniques for uncertainty analysis of criticality problems. Spectral techniques can be used to reconstruct stochastic quantities of interest by means of a Fourier-like expansion. Their application to uncertainty propagation problems can be performed in a non-intrusive fashion by evaluating a set of projection integrals that are used to reconstruct the spectral expansion. This can be done either by using standard Monte Carlo integration approaches or by adopting numerical quadrature rules. We present the derivation of a new adaptive quadrature algorithm, based on the definition of a sparse grid, which can be used to reduce the computational cost associated with non-intrusive spectral techniques. This new adaptive algorithm and the Monte Carlo integration alternative are then applied to two reference problems. First, a stochastic multigroup diffusion problem is introduced by considering the microscopic cross-sections of the system to be random quantities. Then a criticality benchmark is defined for which a set of resonance parameters in the resolved region are assumed to be stochastic

  12. Parametric linear programming for a materials requirement planning problem solution with uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Darío Arango Serna; Conrado Augusto Serna; Giovanni Pérez Ortega

    2010-01-01

    Using fuzzy set theory as a methodology for modelling and analysing decision systems is particularly interesting for researchers in industrial engineering because it allows qualitative and quantitative analysis of problems involving uncertainty and imprecision. Thus, in an effort to gain a better understanding of the use of fuzzy logic in industrial engineering, more specifically in the field of production planning, this article was aimed at providing a materials requirement planning (MRP) pr...

  13. A novel modeling approach for job shop scheduling problem under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behnam Beheshti Pur

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available When aiming on improving efficiency and reducing cost in manufacturing environments, production scheduling can play an important role. Although a common workshop is full of uncertainties, when using mathematical programs researchers have mainly focused on deterministic problems. After briefly reviewing and discussing popular modeling approaches in the field of stochastic programming, this paper proposes a new approach based on utility theory for a certain range of problems and under some practical assumptions. Expected utility programming, as the proposed approach, will be compared with the other well-known methods and its meaningfulness and usefulness will be illustrated via a numerical examples and a real case.

  14. An approximation solution to refinery crude oil scheduling problem with demand uncertainty using joint constrained programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Qianqian; Yang, Genke; Xu, Guanglin; Pan, Changchun

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to develop an approximation method for scheduling refinery crude oil operations by taking into consideration the demand uncertainty. In the stochastic model the demand uncertainty is modeled as random variables which follow a joint multivariate distribution with a specific correlation structure. Compared to deterministic models in existing works, the stochastic model can be more practical for optimizing crude oil operations. Using joint chance constraints, the demand uncertainty is treated by specifying proximity level on the satisfaction of product demands. However, the joint chance constraints usually hold strong nonlinearity and consequently, it is still hard to handle it directly. In this paper, an approximation method combines a relax-and-tight technique to approximately transform the joint chance constraints to a serial of parameterized linear constraints so that the complicated problem can be attacked iteratively. The basic idea behind this approach is to approximate, as much as possible, nonlinear constraints by a lot of easily handled linear constraints which will lead to a well balance between the problem complexity and tractability. Case studies are conducted to demonstrate the proposed methods. Results show that the operation cost can be reduced effectively compared with the case without considering the demand correlation.

  15. An Approximation Solution to Refinery Crude Oil Scheduling Problem with Demand Uncertainty Using Joint Constrained Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qianqian Duan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is devoted to develop an approximation method for scheduling refinery crude oil operations by taking into consideration the demand uncertainty. In the stochastic model the demand uncertainty is modeled as random variables which follow a joint multivariate distribution with a specific correlation structure. Compared to deterministic models in existing works, the stochastic model can be more practical for optimizing crude oil operations. Using joint chance constraints, the demand uncertainty is treated by specifying proximity level on the satisfaction of product demands. However, the joint chance constraints usually hold strong nonlinearity and consequently, it is still hard to handle it directly. In this paper, an approximation method combines a relax-and-tight technique to approximately transform the joint chance constraints to a serial of parameterized linear constraints so that the complicated problem can be attacked iteratively. The basic idea behind this approach is to approximate, as much as possible, nonlinear constraints by a lot of easily handled linear constraints which will lead to a well balance between the problem complexity and tractability. Case studies are conducted to demonstrate the proposed methods. Results show that the operation cost can be reduced effectively compared with the case without considering the demand correlation.

  16. Modeling and solving a large-scale generation expansion planning problem under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Shan; Ryan, Sarah M. [Iowa State University, Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Ames (United States); Watson, Jean-Paul [Sandia National Laboratories, Discrete Math and Complex Systems Department, Albuquerque (United States); Woodruff, David L. [University of California Davis, Graduate School of Management, Davis (United States)

    2011-11-15

    We formulate a generation expansion planning problem to determine the type and quantity of power plants to be constructed over each year of an extended planning horizon, considering uncertainty regarding future demand and fuel prices. Our model is expressed as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program, which we use to compute solutions independently minimizing the expected cost and the Conditional Value-at-Risk; i.e., the risk of significantly larger-than-expected operational costs. We introduce stochastic process models to capture demand and fuel price uncertainty, which are in turn used to generate trees that accurately represent the uncertainty space. Using a realistic problem instance based on the Midwest US, we explore two fundamental, unexplored issues that arise when solving any stochastic generation expansion model. First, we introduce and discuss the use of an algorithm for computing confidence intervals on obtained solution costs, to account for the fact that a finite sample of scenarios was used to obtain a particular solution. Second, we analyze the nature of solutions obtained under different parameterizations of this method, to assess whether the recommended solutions themselves are invariant to changes in costs. The issues are critical for decision makers who seek truly robust recommendations for generation expansion planning. (orig.)

  17. Using Thermodynamics to Predict the Outcomes of Nitrate-Based Oil Reservoir Souring Control Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Dolfing

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Souring is the undesirable production of hydrogen sulfide (H2S in oil reservoirs by sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB. Souring is a common problem during secondary oil recovery via water flooding, especially when seawater with its high sulfate concentration is introduced. Nitrate injection into these oil reservoirs can prevent and remediate souring by stimulating nitrate-reducing bacteria (NRB. Two conceptually different mechanisms for NRB-facilitated souring control have been proposed: nitrate-sulfate competition for electron donors (oil-derived organics or H2 and nitrate driven sulfide oxidation. Thermodynamics can facilitate predictions about which nitrate-driven mechanism is most likely to occur in different scenarios. From a thermodynamic perspective the question “Which reaction yields more energy, nitrate driven oxidation of sulfide or nitrate driven oxidation of organic compounds?” can be rephrased as: “Is acetate driven sulfate reduction to sulfide exergonic or endergonic?” Our analysis indicates that under conditions encountered in oil fields, sulfate driven oxidation of acetate (or other SRB organic electron donors is always more favorable than sulfide oxidation to sulfate. That predicts that organotrophic NRB that oxidize acetate would outcompete lithotrophic NRB that oxidize sulfide. However, sulfide oxidation to elemental sulfur is different. At low acetate HS− oxidation is more favorable than acetate oxidation. Incomplete oxidation of sulfide to S0 is likely to occur when nitrate levels are low, and is favored by low temperatures; conditions that can be encountered at oil field above-ground facilities where intermediate sulfur compounds like S0 may cause corrosion. These findings have implications for reservoir management strategies and for assessing the success and progress of nitrate-based souring control strategies and the attendant risks of corrosion associated with souring and nitrate injection.

  18. Integration of QFD, AHP, and LPP methods in supplier development problems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shad, Zahra; Roghanian, Emad; Mojibian, Fatemeh

    2014-04-01

    Quality function deployment (QFD) is a customer-driven approach, widely used to develop or process new product to maximize customer satisfaction. Last researches used linear physical programming (LPP) procedure to optimize QFD; however, QFD issue involved uncertainties, or fuzziness, which requires taking them into account for more realistic study. In this paper, a set of fuzzy data is used to address linguistic values parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. Proposed integrated approach including analytic hierarchy process (AHP), QFD, and LPP to maximize overall customer satisfaction under uncertain conditions and apply them in the supplier development problem. The fuzzy AHP approach is adopted as a powerful method to obtain the relationship between the customer requirements and engineering characteristics (ECs) to construct house of quality in QFD method. LPP is used to obtain the optimal achievement level of the ECs and subsequently the customer satisfaction level under different degrees of uncertainty. The effectiveness of proposed method will be illustrated by an example.

  19. Primary souring: A novel bacteria-free method for sour beer production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osburn, Kara; Amaral, Justin; Metcalf, Sara R; Nickens, David M; Rogers, Cody M; Sausen, Christopher; Caputo, Robert; Miller, Justin; Li, Hongde; Tennessen, Jason M; Bochman, Matthew L

    2018-04-01

    In the beverage fermentation industry, especially at the craft or micro level, there is a movement to incorporate as many local ingredients as possible to both capture terroir and stimulate local economies. In the case of craft beer, this has traditionally only encompassed locally sourced barley, hops, and other agricultural adjuncts. The identification and use of novel yeasts in brewing lags behind. We sought to bridge this gap by bio-prospecting for wild yeasts, with a focus on the American Midwest. We isolated 284 different strains from 54 species of yeast and have begun to determine their fermentation characteristics. During this work, we found several isolates of five species that produce lactic acid and ethanol during wort fermentation: Hanseniaspora vineae, Lachancea fermentati, Lachancea thermotolerans, Schizosaccharomyces japonicus, and Wickerhamomyces anomalus. Tested representatives of these species yielded excellent attenuation, lactic acid production, and sensory characteristics, positioning them as viable alternatives to lactic acid bacteria (LAB) for the production of sour beers. Indeed, we suggest a new LAB-free paradigm for sour beer production that we term "primary souring" because the lactic acid production and resultant pH decrease occurs during primary fermentation, as opposed to kettle souring or souring via mixed culture fermentation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Numerical simulation of a sour gas flare

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambers, A. [Alberta Research Council, Devon, AB (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    Due to the limited amount of information in the literature on sour gas flares and the cost of conducting wind tunnel and field experiments on sour flares, this presentation presented a modelling project that predicted the effect of operating conditions on flare performance and emissions. The objectives of the project were to adapt an existing numerical model suitable for flare simulation, incorporate sulfur chemistry, and run simulations for a range of conditions typical of sour flares in Alberta. The study involved the use of modelling expertise at the University of Utah, and employed large eddy simulation (LES) methods to model open flames. The existing model included the prediction of turbulent flow field; hydrocarbon reaction chemistry; soot formation; and radiation heat transfer. The presentation addressed the unique features of the model and discussed whether LES could predict the flow field. Other topics that were presented included the results from a University of Utah comparison; challenges of the LES model; an example of a run time issue; predicting the impact of operating conditions; and the results of simulations. Last, several next steps were identified and preliminary results were provided. Future work will focus on reducing computation time and increasing information reporting. figs.

  1. MOQPSO-D/S for Air and Missile Defense WTA Problem under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Xu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Aiming at the shortcomings of single objective optimization for solving weapon target assignment (WTA and the existing multiobjective optimization based WTA method having problems being applied in air and missile defense combat under uncertainty, a fuzzy multiobjective programming based WTA method was proposed to enhance the adaptability of WTA decision to the changes of battlefield situation. Firstly, a multiobjective quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization with double/single-well (MOQPSO-D/S algorithm was proposed by adopting the double/single-well based position update method, the hybrid random mutation method, and the two-stage based guider particles selection method. Secondly, a fuzzy multiobjective programming WTA model was constructed with consideration of air and missile defense combat’s characteristics. And, the uncertain WTA model was equivalently clarified based on the necessity degree principle of uncertainty theory. Thirdly, with particles encoding and illegal particles adjusting, the MOQPSO-D/S algorithm was adopted to solve the fuzzy multiobjective programming based WTA model. Finally, example simulation was conducted, and the result shows that the WTA model constructed is rational and MOQPSO-D/S algorithm is efficient.

  2. SOLUTION OF SIGNAL UNCERTAINTY PROBLEM AT ANALYTICAL DESIGN OF CONSECUTIVE COMPENSATOR IN PIEZO ACTUATOR CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Bystrov

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Subject of Research.We present research results for the signal uncertainty problem that naturally arises for the developers of servomechanisms, including analytical design of serial compensators, delivering the required quality indexes for servomechanisms. Method. The problem was solved with the use of Besekerskiy engineering approach, formulated in 1958. This gave the possibility to reduce requirements for input signal composition of servomechanisms by using only two of their quantitative characteristics, such as maximum speed and acceleration. Information about input signal maximum speed and acceleration allows entering into consideration the equivalent harmonic input signal with calculated amplitude and frequency. In combination with requirements for maximum tracking error, the amplitude and frequency of the equivalent harmonic effects make it possible to estimate analytically the value of the amplitude characteristics of the system by error and then convert it to amplitude characteristic of open-loop system transfer function. While previously Besekerskiy approach was mainly used in relation to the apparatus of logarithmic characteristics, we use this approach for analytical synthesis of consecutive compensators. Main Results. Proposed technique is used to create analytical representation of "input–output" and "error–output" polynomial dynamic models of the designed system. In turn, the desired model of the designed system in the "error–output" form of analytical representation of transfer functions is the basis for the design of consecutive compensator, that delivers the desired placement of state matrix eigenvalues and, consequently, the necessary set of dynamic indexes for the designed system. The given procedure of consecutive compensator analytical design on the basis of Besekerskiy engineering approach under conditions of signal uncertainty is illustrated by an example. Practical Relevance. The obtained theoretical results are

  3. The operating room case-mix problem under uncertainty and nurses capacity constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahia, Zakaria; Eltawil, Amr B; Harraz, Nermine A

    2016-12-01

    Surgery is one of the key functions in hospitals; it generates significant revenue and admissions to hospitals. In this paper we address the decision of choosing a case-mix for a surgery department. The objective of this study is to generate an optimal case-mix plan of surgery patients with uncertain surgery operations, which includes uncertainty in surgery durations, length of stay, surgery demand and the availability of nurses. In order to obtain an optimal case-mix plan, a stochastic optimization model is proposed and the sample average approximation method is applied. The proposed model is used to determine the number of surgery cases to be weekly served, the amount of operating rooms' time dedicated to each specialty and the number of ward beds dedicated to each specialty. The optimal case-mix selection criterion is based upon a weighted score taking into account both the waiting list and the historical demand of each patient category. The score aims to maximizing the service level of the operating rooms by increasing the total number of surgery cases that could be served. A computational experiment is presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method. The results show that the stochastic model solution outperforms the expected value problem solution. Additional analysis is conducted to study the effect of varying the number of ORs and nurses capacity on the overall ORs' performance.

  4. Generalized Uncertainty Quantification for Linear Inverse Problems in X-ray Imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fowler, Michael James [Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY (United States)

    2014-04-25

    In industrial and engineering applications, X-ray radiography has attained wide use as a data collection protocol for the assessment of material properties in cases where direct observation is not possible. The direct measurement of nuclear materials, particularly when they are under explosive or implosive loading, is not feasible, and radiography can serve as a useful tool for obtaining indirect measurements. In such experiments, high energy X-rays are pulsed through a scene containing material of interest, and a detector records a radiograph by measuring the radiation that is not attenuated in the scene. One approach to the analysis of these radiographs is to model the imaging system as an operator that acts upon the object being imaged to produce a radiograph. In this model, the goal is to solve an inverse problem to reconstruct the values of interest in the object, which are typically material properties such as density or areal density. The primary objective in this work is to provide quantitative solutions with uncertainty estimates for three separate applications in X-ray radiography: deconvolution, Abel inversion, and radiation spot shape reconstruction. For each problem, we introduce a new hierarchical Bayesian model for determining a posterior distribution on the unknowns and develop efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling from the posterior. A Poisson likelihood, based on a noise model for photon counts at the detector, is combined with a prior tailored to each application: an edge-localizing prior for deconvolution; a smoothing prior with non-negativity constraints for spot reconstruction; and a full covariance sampling prior based on a Wishart hyperprior for Abel inversion. After developing our methods in a general setting, we demonstrate each model on both synthetically generated datasets, including those from a well known radiation transport code, and real high energy radiographs taken at two U. S. Department of Energy

  5. Nature of local benefits to communities impacted by sour gas development : Public safety and sour gas recommendation 79 : Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-09-01

    The Provincial Advisory Committee on Public Safety and Sour Gas of Alberta issued a report in December 2002, in which recommendations were made on how to improve the sour gas regulatory system and reduce the impacts of sour gas on public safety and health. Recommendation 79 of this report called for a study to determine the nature of local benefits such as property taxes and local business opportunities, to communities affected by sour gas development. The present document was prepared by a multi-stake holder committee consisting of representatives from municipal government, academia, industry associations, the provincial government, and the public. One of its objectives was to identify matters of importance to stake holders concerning the study. The committee examined three major areas: economic benefit, net financial benefit to municipalities, and impact of sour gas development on local residents. The results indicated that the province and municipalities in which sour gas activities take place benefit from these activities. All Albertans benefit somewhat, and those living in areas where the sour gas industry operates might benefit through employment or the net benefit accrued to municipal government. A detailed quantification of local benefits at the municipal level for individuals was provided in this document. A full accounting of costs or negative impacts that may affect some individuals was not provided. refs., 6 tabs

  6. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Reactor Physics Problems : Method Development for Multi-Physics in Reactors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perkó, Z.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis presents novel adjoint and spectral methods for the sensitivity and uncertainty (S&U) analysis of multi-physics problems encountered in the field of reactor physics. The first part focuses on the steady state of reactors and extends the adjoint sensitivity analysis methods well

  7. Organic constituents in sour condensates from shale-oil and petroleum-crude runs at Sohio's Toledo refinery: identification and wastewater-control-technology considerations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wingender, R J; Harrison, W; Raphaelian, L A

    1981-02-01

    Samples of sour condensate generated from the continuous processing of both crude shale oil and petroleum crude were collected and extracted with methylene chloride. The extracts were analyzed using capillary-column gas chromatography/mass spectrometry at Argonne National Laboratory and Radian Corporation. Qualitatively, the predominant types of organic compounds present in the shale-oil sour condensate were pyridines and anilines; semiquantitatively, these compounds were present at a concentration of 5.7 ppM, or about 78% of the total concentration of components detected. In contrast, straight-chain alkanes were the predominant types of compounds found in the sour condensate produced during isocracking of conventional crude oil. The approximate concentration of straight-chain alkanes, 8.3 ppM, and of other branched and/or unsaturated hydrocarbons, 6.8 ppM, amounted to 88% of the total concentration of components detected in the sour condensate from the petroleum-crude run. Nitrogen compounds in the shale-oil sour condensate may necessitate alterations of the sour water and refinery wastewater-treatment facilities to provide for organics degradation and to accommodate the potentially greater ammonia loadings. This would include use of larger amounts of caustic to enhance ammonia removal by steam stripping. Possible problems associated with biological removal of organic-nitrogen compounds should be investigated in future experimental shale-oil refining runs.

  8. De novo transcriptome assembly of a sour cherry cultivar, Schattenmorelle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeonhwa Jo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Sour cherry (Prunus cerasus in the genus Prunus in the family Rosaceae is one of the most popular stone fruit trees worldwide. Of known sour cherry cultivars, the Schattenmorelle is a famous old sour cherry with a high amount of fruit production. The Schattenmorelle was selected before 1650 and described in the 1800s. This cultivar was named after gardens of the Chateau de Moreille in which the cultivar was initially found. In order to identify new genes and to develop genetic markers for sour cherry, we performed a transcriptome analysis of a sour cherry. We selected the cultivar Schattenmorelle, which is among commercially important cultivars in Europe and North America. We obtained 2.05 GB raw data from the Schattenmorelle (NCBI accession number: SRX1187170. De novo transcriptome assembly using Trinity identified 61,053 transcripts in which N50 was 611 bp. Next, we identified 25,585 protein coding sequences using TransDecoder. The identified proteins were blasted against NCBI's non-redundant database for annotation. Based on blast search, we taxonomically classified the obtained sequences. As a result, we provide the transcriptome of sour cherry cultivar Schattenmorelle using next generation sequencing.

  9. An Approximation Solution to Refinery Crude Oil Scheduling Problem with Demand Uncertainty Using Joint Constrained Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Duan, Qianqian; Yang, Genke; Xu, Guanglin; Pan, Changchun

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to develop an approximation method for scheduling refinery crude oil operations by taking into consideration the demand uncertainty. In the stochastic model the demand uncertainty is modeled as random variables which follow a joint multivariate distribution with a specific correlation structure. Compared to deterministic models in existing works, the stochastic model can be more practical for optimizing crude oil operations. Using joint chance constraints, the demand unc...

  10. Modelling souring in a high salinity reservoir

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adams, Michael; Crossland, Alan; Stott, Jim

    2006-03-15

    CAPCIS Ltd (Capcis) have developed a souring model for use in highly saline reservoirs where salinity limits the growth of sulphate reducing bacteria (SRB). Capcis have successfully applied the model to a field in North Africa. The conceptual basis of the model considers the course of the H2S from generation in the reservoir including dilution, sulphide retardation and scavenging and H2S fluid phase partitioning. At each stage mathematical equations governing the behaviour of the H2S were produced. In order to estimate the potential for H2S generation, it is required to know the chemistry of the injection and formation waters, as well as the properties of the indigenous SRB, i.e. the maximum salinity for their growth. This is determined by bottle testing of H2S generation by SRB at a range of injection/formation water ratios. The maximum salinity for SRB growth then determines the mixing ratios at which H2S generation takes place. Sulphide retardation due to adsorption at immobile interfaces was empirically modeled from reservoir data. Sulphide scavenging due to reaction with iron generated from corrosion was also modelled. Reservoir mineral scavenging was not modelled but could be incorporated in an extension to the model. Finally, in order to compute the gas-phase concentration of generated H2S, the H2S in the well stream is partitioned between the gas, oil and water phases. Capcis has carried out detailed computations of H2S solubility in crude oil and formation waters and the derivation of distribution ratios based on the respective partition coefficients using Gerard's line method, a modification of Henry's Law. (author) (tk)

  11. Optimal Sizing of Energy Storage Systems for the Energy Procurement Problem in Multi-Period Markets under Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryusuke Konishi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In deregulated electricity markets, minimizing the procurement costs of electricity is a critical problem for procurement agencies (PAs. However, uncertainty is inevitable for PAs and includes multiple factors such as market prices, photovoltaic system (PV output and demand. This study focuses on settlements in multi-period markets (a day-ahead market and a real-time market and the installation of energy storage systems (ESSs. ESSs can be utilized for time arbitrage in the day-ahead market and to reduce the purchasing/selling of electricity in the real-time market. However, the high costs of an ESS mean the size of the system needs to be minimized. In addition, when determining the size of an ESS, it is important to identify the size appropriate for each role. Therefore, we employ the concept of a “slow” and a “fast” ESS to quantify the size of a system’s role, based on the values associated with the various uncertainties. Because the problem includes nonlinearity and non-convexity, we solve it within a realistic computational burden by reformulating the problem using reasonable assumptions. Therefore, this study identifies the optimal sizes of ESSs and procurement, taking into account the uncertainties of prices in multi-period markets, PV output and demand.

  12. Project selection problem under uncertainty: An application of utility theory and chance constrained programming to a real case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Hosnavi Atashgah

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Selecting from a pool of interdependent projects under certainty, when faced with resource constraints, has been studied well in the literature of project selection problem. After briefly reviewing and discussing popular modeling approaches for dealing with uncertainty, this paper proposes an approach based on chance constrained programming and utility theory for a certain range of problems and under some practical assumptions. Expected Utility Programming, as the proposed modeling approach, will be compared with other well-known methods and its meaningfulness and usefulness will be illustrated via two numerical examples and one real case.

  13. What's the Right Answer? Team Problem-Solving in Environments of Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jameson, Daphne A.

    2009-01-01

    Whether in the workplace or the classroom, many teams approach problem-solving as a search for certainty--even though certainty rarely exists in business. This search for the one right answer to a problem creates unrealistic expectations and often undermines teams' effectiveness. To help teams manage their problem-solving process and communication…

  14. On uncertainty and local sensitivity analysis for transient conjugate heat transfer problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rauch, Christian

    2012-01-01

    The need for simulating real-world behavior of automobiles has led to more and more sophisticated models being added of various physical phenomena for being coupled together. This increases the number of parameters to be set and, consequently, the required knowledge of their relative importance for the solution and the theory behind them. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis provides the knowledge of parameter importance. In this paper a thermal radiation solver is considered that performs conduction calculations and receives heat transfer coefficient and fluid temperate at a thermal node. The equations of local, discrete, and transient sensitivities for the conjugate heat transfer model solved by the finite difference method are being derived for some parameters. In the past, formulations for the finite element method have been published. This paper builds on the steady-state formulation published previously by the author. A numerical analysis on the stability of the solution matrix is being conducted. From those normalized sensitivity coefficients are calculated dimensionless uncertainty factors. On a simplified example the relative importance of the heat transfer modes at various locations is then investigated by those uncertainty factors and their changes over time

  15. How should epistemic uncertainty in modelling water resources management problems shape evaluations of their operations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobson, B.; Pianosi, F.; Reed, P. M.; Wagener, T.

    2017-12-01

    In previous work, we have found that water supply companies are typically hesitant to use reservoir operation tools to inform their release decisions. We believe that this is, in part, due to a lack of faith in the fidelity of the optimization exercise with regards to its ability to represent the real world. In an attempt to quantify this, recent literature has studied the impact on performance from uncertainty arising in: forcing (e.g. reservoir inflows), parameters (e.g. parameters for the estimation of evaporation rate) and objectives (e.g. worst first percentile or worst case). We suggest that there is also epistemic uncertainty in the choices made during model creation, for example in the formulation of an evaporation model or aggregating regional storages. We create `rival framings' (a methodology originally developed to demonstrate the impact of uncertainty arising from alternate objective formulations), each with different modelling choices, and determine their performance impacts. We identify the Pareto approximate set of policies for several candidate formulations and then make them compete with one another in a large ensemble re-evaluation in each other's modelled spaces. This enables us to distinguish the impacts of different structural changes in the model used to evaluate system performance in an effort to generalize the validity of the optimized performance expectations.

  16. Corrosion inhibitor development for slightly sour environments with oxygen intrusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wylde, J.; Wang, H.; Li, J. [Clariant Oil Services North America, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    This presentation reported on a study that examined the effect of oxygen on the inhibition of carbon steel in slightly sour corrosion, and the initiation and propagation of localized attack. Oxygen can enter sour water injection systems through the vapor space in storage tanks and process system. Oxygen aggravates the corrosion attack by participating in the cathodic reaction under full or partial diffusion control. Laboratory testing results were reported in this presentation along with the development of corrosion inhibitors for such a slightly sour system. Bubble testing cells were used with continuous H{sub 2}/CO{sub 2} mixture gas sparging and occasional oxygen intrusion of 2 to 4 hours during a week long test. Linear polarization resistance (LPR) measurements and weight loss corrosion coupons were used to quantify the corrosion attack. The findings were presented in terms of the magnitude of localized attacks at different oxygen concentrations and intrusion periods, with and without the presence of corrosion inhibitors. tabs., figs.

  17. DESAIN DAN IMPLEMENTASI SISTEM PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN HYBRID UNTUK PROBLEM GOING-CONCERN UNCERTAINTY PADA SAAT AUDITING SEBUAH PERUSAHAAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregorius Satia Budhi

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Often the capability of a single technique or method to solve the complex real world problems is not optimum. Audit decision for instance, as an unstructured decision, in its decision making process, involves both qualitative and quantitative information. Going-concern uncertainty opinion as one of the audit decision, is issued by auditor if there is subsantial doubt in company's going-concern status. However in most process of audit decision making mere single technique is employed which is potentially causes biased decision. Therefore, combining two or more methods, in order to apply their strengths as to minimize the weaknesess, could be the alternative solution to optimize the accuracy of going-concern uncertainty opinion given to a company. Such system is called as hybrid system. In this experiment a design of a hybrid decision support system is performed, that combined expert system and statistical model to assess whether a company is in going-concern uncertainty condition or not. From the evaluation and analysis, the designed hybrid system can accomplish an overall prediction accuracy of 93.75% in its audit opinion. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Sering kemampuan suatu teknik atau metode untuk memecahkan masalah dalam dunia nyata tidak optimal. Sementara itu keputusan audit adalah sejenis keputusan tidak terstruktur, dan melibatkan informasi kualitatif dan kuantitatif. Going-concern uncertainty adalah sebuah kondisi dimana status kelayakan hidup sebuah perusahaan diragukan oleh auditor setelah melakukan proses auditing pada perusahaan yang bersangkutan. Pengambilan keputusan ini bila hanya menggunakan satu metode atau teknik saja biasanya akan menghasilkan keputusan yang kurang akurat. Kombinasi dua atau lebih teknik yang bertujuan menggabungkan kekuatan masing-masing dan meminimalkan kekurangannya, dapat menjadi alternatif solusi untuk mengoptimalkan opini benar tidaknya sebuah perusaan dinyatakan dalam kondisi going-concern uncertainty

  18. Optimizing decentralized production-distribution planning problem in a multi-period supply chain network under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourifar, Raheleh; Mahdavi, Iraj; Mahdavi-Amiri, Nezam; Paydar, Mohammad Mahdi

    2017-09-01

    Decentralized supply chain management is found to be significantly relevant in today's competitive markets. Production and distribution planning is posed as an important optimization problem in supply chain networks. Here, we propose a multi-period decentralized supply chain network model with uncertainty. The imprecision related to uncertain parameters like demand and price of the final product is appropriated with stochastic and fuzzy numbers. We provide mathematical formulation of the problem as a bi-level mixed integer linear programming model. Due to problem's convolution, a structure to solve is developed that incorporates a novel heuristic algorithm based on Kth-best algorithm, fuzzy approach and chance constraint approach. Ultimately, a numerical example is constructed and worked through to demonstrate applicability of the optimization model. A sensitivity analysis is also made.

  19. Sour Taste preferences of children relate to preference of novel and intense stimuli

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liem, D.G.; Westerbeek, A.; Wolterink, S.; Kok, F.J.; Graaf, de C.

    2004-01-01

    Previous research has suggested that some children have a preference for sour tastes. The origin of this preference remains unclear. We investigated whether preference for sour tastes is related to a difference in rated sour intensity due to physiological properties of saliva, or to an overall

  20. Industrial processing effects on phenolic compounds in sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L.) fruit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toydemir, G.; Capanoglu, E.; Gomez-Roldan, M.V.; Vos, de R.C.H.; Boyacioglu, D.; Hall, R.D.; Beekwilder, M.J.

    2013-01-01

    The processed juice (or nectar) of the sour cherry, Prunus cerasus L., is widely consumed in the Balkan region and Turkey. Sour cherry is known to be rich in polyphenolic compounds, such as anthocyanins and procyanidins. In this work, the effects of processing of sour cherry fruit to nectar on

  1. The Orienteering Problem under Uncertainty Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization compared

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Evers (Lanah); K.M. Glorie (Kristiaan); S. van der Ster (Suzanne); A.I. Barros (Ana); H. Monsuur (Herman)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe Orienteering Problem (OP) is a generalization of the well-known traveling salesman problem and has many interesting applications in logistics, tourism and defense. To reflect real-life situations, we focus on an uncertain variant of the OP. Two main approaches that deal with

  2. The Orienteering Problem under Uncertainty Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization compared

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, L.; Glorie, K.; Ster, S. van der; Barros, A.I.; Monsuur, H.

    2012-01-01

    The Orienteering Problem (OP) is a generalization of the well-known traveling salesman problem and has many interesting applications in logistics, tourism and defense. To reflect real-life situations, we focus on an uncertain variant of the OP. Two main approaches that deal with optimization under

  3. Operating room scheduling and surgeon assignment problem under surgery durations uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongwei; Zhang, Tianyi; Luo, Shuai; Xu, Dan

    2017-12-29

    Scientific management methods are urgently needed to balance the demand and supply of heath care services in Chinese hospitals. Operating theatre is the bottleneck and costliest department. Therefore, the surgery scheduling is crucial to hospital management. To increase the utilization and reduce the cost of operating theatre, and to improve surgeons' satisfaction in the meantime, a practical surgery scheduling which could assign the operating room (OR) and surgeon for the surgery and sequence surgeries in each OR was provided for hospital managers. Surgery durations were predicted by fitting the distributions. A two-step mixed integer programming model considering surgery duration uncertainty was proposed, and sample average approximation (SAA) method was applied to solve the model. Durations of various surgeries were log-normal distributed respectively. Numerical experiments showed the model and method could get good solutions with different sample sizes. Real-life constraints and duration uncertainty were considered in the study, and the model was also very applicable in practice. Average overtime of each OR was reducing and tending to be stable with the number of surgeons increasing, which is a discipline for OR management.

  4. Geostatistical Sampling Methods for Efficient Uncertainty Analysis in Flow and Transport Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liodakis, Stylianos; Kyriakidis, Phaedon; Gaganis, Petros

    2015-04-01

    In hydrogeological applications involving flow and transport of in heterogeneous porous media the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity is often parameterized in terms of a lognormal random field based on a histogram and variogram model inferred from data and/or synthesized from relevant knowledge. Realizations of simulated conductivity fields are then generated using geostatistical simulation involving simple random (SR) sampling and are subsequently used as inputs to physically-based simulators of flow and transport in a Monte Carlo framework for evaluating the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of solute concentration due to the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of hydraulic con- ductivity [1]. Realistic uncertainty analysis, however, calls for a large number of simulated concentration fields; hence, can become expensive in terms of both time and computer re- sources. A more efficient alternative to SR sampling is Latin hypercube (LH) sampling, a special case of stratified random sampling, which yields a more representative distribution of simulated attribute values with fewer realizations [2]. Here, term representative implies realizations spanning efficiently the range of possible conductivity values corresponding to the lognormal random field. In this work we investigate the efficiency of alternative methods to classical LH sampling within the context of simulation of flow and transport in a heterogeneous porous medium. More precisely, we consider the stratified likelihood (SL) sampling method of [3], in which attribute realizations are generated using the polar simulation method by exploring the geometrical properties of the multivariate Gaussian distribution function. In addition, we propose a more efficient version of the above method, here termed minimum energy (ME) sampling, whereby a set of N representative conductivity realizations at M locations is constructed by: (i) generating a representative set of N points distributed on the

  5. On Analytical Solutions of the Fractional Differential Equation with Uncertainty: Application to the Basset Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soheil Salahshour

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we apply the concept of Caputo’s H-differentiability, constructed based on the generalized Hukuhara difference, to solve the fuzzy fractional differential equation (FFDE with uncertainty. This is in contrast to conventional solutions that either require a quantity of fractional derivatives of unknown solution at the initial point (Riemann–Liouville or a solution with increasing length of their support (Hukuhara difference. Then, in order to solve the FFDE analytically, we introduce the fuzzy Laplace transform of the Caputo H-derivative. To the best of our knowledge, there is limited research devoted to the analytical methods to solve the FFDE under the fuzzy Caputo fractional differentiability. An analytical solution is presented to confirm the capability of the proposed method.

  6. Bioactivity of sour cherry cultivars grown in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khoo, Gaik Ming; Clausen, Morten Rahr; Pedersen, Bjarne Hjelmsted

    2012-01-01

    Thirty four varieties of sour cherries (Prunus cerasus) were investigated for their total antioxidant activity, Caco-2 cancer cell proliferation inhibitory activity and effect on prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) production. Total phenolic content, oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) and cancer cell ...

  7. recent approaches for treating waste management problems in the frame of uncertainty using computer software packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel Gwad, A.S.A.

    2008-01-01

    The large-scale industrialization of the 20 th century produced both positive and negative effects. One of the negative effects was the production of hazardous wastes as a result of manufacturing processes. Preventing, recycling, and disposing of these wastes in an environmentally sustainable manner presents a challenge for the 21 st century.The hazardous waste management (HWM) problem is defined as the combined decision of selecting the disposal method, sitting the disposal plants and deciding on the waste flow structure. The hazardous waste management problem has additional requirements depending on the selected disposal method. Each disposal method has different requirements. For land disposal, the main issue is leachate. The land disposal facility should guarantee the safety of nearby groundwater. For incineration plants, the main requirement is the satisfaction of air pollution standards at population centers.The thesis consists of five chapters: Chapter I presents a survey on some important concepts of the hazardous waste management problem. Chapter II introduces three different approaches for treating the HWM problem. In the first approach a mathematical model for treating HWM problem. Where the incineration process is used as a tool for disposing the hazardous waste is presented. The second one discusses a multi objective location-routing model for HWM problem. The third approach is concerned with present a waste fuel blending approach for treating the hazardous waste problem using goal programming. Chapter III presents three different applications for waste management problem. The first application is concerned with waste collection in Southern Italy. The second discusses the management of solid waste in the city of Regina, Canada, by using an interval parameter technique. The third one introduces the planning of waste management systems with economies of scale for the region of Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Chapter IV is devoted to an optimization the model

  8. Robust Parallel Machine Scheduling Problem with Uncertainties and Sequence-Dependent Setup Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongtao Hu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A parallel machine scheduling problem in plastic production is studied in this paper. In this problem, the processing time and arrival time are uncertain but lie in their respective intervals. In addition, each job must be processed together with a mold while jobs which belong to one family can share the same mold. Therefore, time changing mold is required for two consecutive jobs that belong to different families, which is known as sequence-dependent setup time. This paper aims to identify a robust schedule by min–max regret criterion. It is proved that the scenario incurring maximal regret for each feasible solution lies in finite extreme scenarios. A mixed integer linear programming formulation and an exact algorithm are proposed to solve the problem. Moreover, a modified artificial bee colony algorithm is developed to solve large-scale problems. The performance of the presented algorithm is evaluated through extensive computational experiments and the results show that the proposed algorithm surpasses the exact method in terms of objective value and computational time.

  9. Parametric Importance of Criteria and Intervals of Value Tradeoff Uncertainty in the Analysis of Multicriteria Problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Podinovski, V. V.

    2008-01-01

    Multicriteria decision-making problems under bounded ( above, below, or from both sides) continuous or discrete criteria are considered. Methods for comparing variants of solutions using the information accumulated in the form of interval estimates of replacing the values of some criteria by the

  10. Reliability-Based Marginal Cost Pricing Problem Case with Both Demand Uncertainty and Travelers’ Perception Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaopeng Zhong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the first-best marginal cost pricing (MCP in a stochastic network with both travel demand uncertainty and stochastic perception errors within the travelers’ route choice decision processes, this paper develops a perceived risk-based stochastic network marginal cost pricing (PRSN-MCP model. Numerical examples based on an integrated method combining the moment analysis approach, the fitting distribution method, and the reliability measures are also provided to demonstrate the importance and properties of the proposed model. The main finding is that ignoring the effect of travel time reliability and travelers’ perception errors may significantly reduce the performance of the first-best MCP tolls, especially under high travelers’ confidence and network congestion levels. The analysis result could also enhance our understanding of (1 the effect of stochastic perception error (SPE on the perceived travel time distribution and the components of road toll; (2 the effect of road toll on the actual travel time distribution and its reliability measures; (3 the effect of road toll on the total network travel time distribution and its statistics; and (4 the effect of travel demand level and the value of reliability (VoR level on the components of road toll.

  11. Data assimilation and uncertainty analysis of environmental assessment problems--an application of Stochastic Transfer Function and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romanowicz, Renata; Young, Peter C.

    2003-01-01

    Stochastic Transfer Function (STF) and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) techniques are outlined and applied to an environmental problem concerned with marine dose assessment. The goal of both methods in this application is the estimation and prediction of the environmental variables, together with their associated probability distributions. In particular, they are used to estimate the amount of radionuclides transferred to marine biota from a given source: the British Nuclear Fuel Ltd (BNFL) repository plant in Sellafield, UK. The complexity of the processes involved, together with the large dispersion and scarcity of observations regarding radionuclide concentrations in the marine environment, require efficient data assimilation techniques. In this regard, the basic STF methods search for identifiable, linear model structures that capture the maximum amount of information contained in the data with a minimal parameterisation. They can be extended for on-line use, based on recursively updated Bayesian estimation and, although applicable to only constant or time-variable parameter (non-stationary) linear systems in the form used in this paper, they have the potential for application to non-linear systems using recently developed State Dependent Parameter (SDP) non-linear STF models. The GLUE based-methods, on the other hand, formulate the problem of estimation using a more general Bayesian approach, usually without prior statistical identification of the model structure. As a result, they are applicable to almost any linear or non-linear stochastic model, although they are much less efficient both computationally and in their use of the information contained in the observations. As expected in this particular environmental application, it is shown that the STF methods give much narrower confidence limits for the estimates due to their more efficient use of the information contained in the data. Exploiting Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) analysis

  12. A Hybrid Optimization Method for Solving Bayesian Inverse Problems under Uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Zhang

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the application of a new method, the Finite Difference and Stochastic Gradient (Hybrid method, for history matching in reservoir models. History matching is one of the processes of solving an inverse problem by calibrating reservoir models to dynamic behaviour of the reservoir in which an objective function is formulated based on a Bayesian approach for optimization. The goal of history matching is to identify the minimum value of an objective function that expresses the misfit between the predicted and measured data of a reservoir. To address the optimization problem, we present a novel application using a combination of the stochastic gradient and finite difference methods for solving inverse problems. The optimization is constrained by a linear equation that contains the reservoir parameters. We reformulate the reservoir model's parameters and dynamic data by operating the objective function, the approximate gradient of which can guarantee convergence. At each iteration step, we obtain the relatively 'important' elements of the gradient, which are subsequently substituted by the values from the Finite Difference method through comparing the magnitude of the components of the stochastic gradient, which forms a new gradient, and we subsequently iterate with the new gradient. Through the application of the Hybrid method, we efficiently and accurately optimize the objective function. We present a number numerical simulations in this paper that show that the method is accurate and computationally efficient.

  13. Reservoir Souring - Latest developments for application and mitigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Richard J; Folwell, Benjamin D; Wirekoh, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Sulphate-reducing prokaryotes (SRP) have been identified in oil field fluids since the 1920s. SRP reduce sulphate to sulphide, a toxic and corrosive species that impacts on operational safety, metallurgy and both capital and operational cost. Differences in water cut, temperature, pressure...... and fluid chemistry can impact on the observed H2S concentration, meaning that an increase in H2S concentration does not always correlate with activity of SRP. However it wasn't until the 1990s that SRP activity was accepted as the leading cause of reservoir souring (i.e. an increase in H2S concentrations...... to reservoir souring. This has led to some recent advances in microbial control and detection, however, despite this, many of the methods used routinely for microbial control and detection are over a century old. We therefore look towards emerging and novel mitigation technologies that may be used...

  14. Two-Stage Multiobjective Optimization for Emergency Supplies Allocation Problem under Integrated Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuejie Bai

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new two-stage optimization method for emergency supplies allocation problem with multisupplier, multiaffected area, multirelief, and multivehicle. The triplet of supply, demand, and the availability of path is unknown prior to the extraordinary event and is descriptive with fuzzy random variable. Considering the fairness, timeliness, and economical efficiency, a multiobjective expected value model is built for facility location, vehicle routing, and supply allocation decisions. The goals of proposed model aim to minimize the proportion of demand nonsatisfied and response time of emergency reliefs and the total cost of the whole process. When the demand and the availability of path are discrete, the expected values in the objective functions are converted into their equivalent forms. When the supply amount is continuous, the equilibrium chance in the constraint is transformed to its equivalent one. To overcome the computational difficulty caused by multiple objectives, a goal programming model is formulated to obtain a compromise solution. Finally, an example is presented to illustrate the validity of the proposed model and the effectiveness of the solution method.

  15. Organic acid profile of commercial sour cassava starch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEMIATE I.M.

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Organic acids are present in sour cassava starch ("polvilho azedo" and contribute with organoleptic and physical characteristics like aroma, flavor and the exclusive baking property, that differentiate this product from the native cassava starch. Samples of commercial sour cassava starch collected in South and Southeast Brazil were prepared for high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC analysis. The HPLC equipment had a Biorad Aminex HPX-87H column for organic acid analysis and a refractometric detector. Analysis was carried out with 0.005M sulfuric acid as mobile phase, 0.6ml/min flow rate and column temperature of 60° C. The acids quantified were lactic (0.036 to 0.813 g/100g, acetic (0 to 0.068 g/100g, propionic (0 to 0.013 g/100g and butyric (0 to 0.057 g/100g, that are produced during the natural fermentation of cassava starch. Results showed large variation among samples, even within the same region. Some samples exhibited high acid levels, mainly lactic acid, but in these neither propionic nor butyric acids were detected. Absence of butyric acid was not expected because this is an important component of the sour cassava starch aroma, and the lack of this acid may suggest that such samples were produced without the natural fermentation step.

  16. Wall Street sours on nuke plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1984-01-01

    Wall Street has been threatening to join the antinuclear campaign for years as construction lead times and costs grew and the financial condition of utilities building reactors deteriorated. With nuclear plant cancellations, licensing problems, quality-assurance breakdowns, and elevated costs, stock prices have dropped causing unrest among utility investors

  17. Fission yields and cross section uncertainty propagation in Boltzmann/Bateman coupled problems: Global and local parameters analysis with a focus on MTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frosio, Thomas; Bonaccorsi, Thomas; Blaise, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Nuclear data uncertainty propagation for neutronic quantities in coupled problems. • Uncertainties are detailed for local isotopic concentrations and local power maps. • Correlations are built between space areas of the core and for different burnups. - Abstract: In a previous paper, a method was investigated to calculate sensitivity coefficients in coupled Boltzmann/Bateman problem for nuclear data (ND) uncertainties propagation on the reactivity. Different methodologies were discussed and applied on an actual example of multigroup cross section uncertainty problem for a 2D Material Testing Reactor (MTR) benchmark. It was shown that differences between methods arose from correlations between input parameters, as far as the method enables to take them into account. Those methods, unlike Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for uncertainty propagation and quantification (UQ), allow obtaining sensitivity coefficients, as well as correlations values between nuclear data, during the depletion calculation for the parameters of interest. This work is here extended to local parameters such as power factors and isotopic concentrations. It also includes fission yield (FY) uncertainty propagation, on both reactivity and power factors. Furthermore, it introduces a new methodology enabling to decorrelate direct and transmutation terms for local quantities: a Monte-Carlo method using built samples from a multidimensional Gaussian law is used to extend the previous studies, and propagate fission yield uncertainties from the CEA’s COMAC covariance file. It is shown that, for power factors, the most impacting ND are the scattering reactions, principally coming from 27 Al and (bounded hydrogen in) H 2 O. The overall effect is a reduction of the propagated uncertainties throughout the cycle thanks to negatively correlated terms. For fission yield (FY), the results show that neither reactivity nor local power factors are strongly affected by uncertainties. However, they

  18. Sour ageusia in two individuals implicates ion channels of the ASIC and PKD families in human sour taste perception at the anterior tongue.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taufiqul Huque

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The perception of sour taste in humans is incompletely understood at the receptor cell level. We report here on two patients with an acquired sour ageusia. Each patient was unresponsive to sour stimuli, but both showed normal responses to bitter, sweet, and salty stimuli.Lingual fungiform papillae, containing taste cells, were obtained by biopsy from the two patients, and from three sour-normal individuals, and analyzed by RT-PCR. The following transcripts were undetectable in the patients, even after 50 cycles of amplification, but readily detectable in the sour-normal subjects: acid sensing ion channels (ASICs 1a, 1beta, 2a, 2b, and 3; and polycystic kidney disease (PKD channels PKD1L3 and PKD2L1. Patients and sour-normals expressed the taste-related phospholipase C-beta2, the delta-subunit of epithelial sodium channel (ENaC and the bitter receptor T2R14, as well as beta-actin. Genomic analysis of one patient, using buccal tissue, did not show absence of the genes for ASIC1a and PKD2L1. Immunohistochemistry of fungiform papillae from sour-normal subjects revealed labeling of taste bud cells by antibodies to ASICs 1a and 1beta, PKD2L1, phospholipase C-beta2, and delta-ENaC. An antibody to PKD1L3 labeled tissue outside taste bud cells.These data suggest a role for ASICs and PKDs in human sour perception. This is the first report of sour ageusia in humans, and the very existence of such individuals ("natural knockouts" suggests a cell lineage for sour that is independent of the other taste modalities.

  19. Solving the Global Climate Monitoring Problem in the Atmosphere: Towards SI-tied Climate Records with Integrated Uncertainty Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchengast, G.; Schwaerz, M.; Fritzer, J.; Schwarz, J.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Steiner, A. K.

    2013-12-01

    Monitoring the atmosphere to gain accurate and long-term stable records of essential climate variables (ECVs) such as temperature and greenhouse gases is the backbone of contemporary atmospheric and climate science. Earth observation from space is the key to obtain such data globally in the atmosphere. Currently, however, not any existing satellite-based atmospheric ECV record can serve as authoritative benchmark over months to decades so that climate variability and change in the atmosphere are not yet reliably monitored. Radio occultation (RO) using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals provides a unique opportunity to solve this problem in the free atmosphere (from ~1-2 km altitude upwards) for core ECVs: the thermodynamic variables temperature and pressure, and to some degree water vapor, which are key parameters for tracking climate change. On top of RO we have recently conceived next-generation methods, microwave and infrared-laser occultation and nadir-looking infrared-laser reflectometry. These can monitor a full set of thermo-dynamic ECVs (incl. wind) as well as the greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane as main drivers of climate change; for the latter we also target the boundary layer for tracking carbon sources and sinks. We briefly introduce to why the atmospheric climate monitoring challenge is unsolved so far and why just the above methods have the capabilities to break through. We then focus on RO, which already provided more than a decade of observations. RO accurately measures time delays from refraction of GNSS signals during atmospheric occultation events. This enables to tie RO-derived ECVs and their uncertainty to fundamental time standards, effectively the SI second, and to their unique long-term stability and narrow uncertainty. However, despite impressive advances since the pioneering RO mission GPS/Met in the mid-1990ties no rigorous trace from fundamental time to the ECVs (duly accounting also for relevant side

  20. Dense film polyimide membranes for aggressive sour gas feed separations

    KAUST Repository

    Kraftschik, Brian

    2013-02-01

    Dense film membranes of the copolyimide 6FDA-DAM:DABA (3:2) are studied for simultaneous removal of CO2 and H2S from sour natural gas streams. Pure and mixed gas permeation as well as pure gas sorption data are reported at 35°C and pressures up to 62bar. The H2S partial pressures used are representative of highly aggressive field operations. Penetrant-induced plasticization effects are evident at feed pressures below 1bar in pure H2S feeds; sub-Tg thermal annealing is used to effectively mitigate this effect, and these annealed films are used throughout the study. Surprisingly, H2S/CH4 selectivity nearly doubles for mixed gas testing in comparison to the pure component ideal selectivity values and approaches the level of a state-of-the-art glassy polymer, cellulose acetate (CA), at H2S partial pressures above 2bar. Furthermore, permeation experiments using a 9.95% H2S, 19.9% CO2, 70.15% CH4 mixture at low feed pressures give CO2/CH4 selectivity of up to 49-over 30% greater than the pure component selectivity for 6FDA-DAM:DABA (3:2). The overall sour gas separation performance of this polyimide is comparable to high-performance rubbery polymer membranes, which have been reported for only moderate H2S partial pressure feeds, and is superior to that for CA based on a practical combined acid gas separation efficiency metric that we introduce. Finally, methods for continued development of the current polyimide membrane material for aggressive sour gas separations are presented. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

  1. Dense film polyimide membranes for aggressive sour gas feed separations

    KAUST Repository

    Kraftschik, Brian; Koros, William J.; Johnson, J.R.; Karvan, Oguz

    2013-01-01

    Dense film membranes of the copolyimide 6FDA-DAM:DABA (3:2) are studied for simultaneous removal of CO2 and H2S from sour natural gas streams. Pure and mixed gas permeation as well as pure gas sorption data are reported at 35°C and pressures up to 62bar. The H2S partial pressures used are representative of highly aggressive field operations. Penetrant-induced plasticization effects are evident at feed pressures below 1bar in pure H2S feeds; sub-Tg thermal annealing is used to effectively mitigate this effect, and these annealed films are used throughout the study. Surprisingly, H2S/CH4 selectivity nearly doubles for mixed gas testing in comparison to the pure component ideal selectivity values and approaches the level of a state-of-the-art glassy polymer, cellulose acetate (CA), at H2S partial pressures above 2bar. Furthermore, permeation experiments using a 9.95% H2S, 19.9% CO2, 70.15% CH4 mixture at low feed pressures give CO2/CH4 selectivity of up to 49-over 30% greater than the pure component selectivity for 6FDA-DAM:DABA (3:2). The overall sour gas separation performance of this polyimide is comparable to high-performance rubbery polymer membranes, which have been reported for only moderate H2S partial pressure feeds, and is superior to that for CA based on a practical combined acid gas separation efficiency metric that we introduce. Finally, methods for continued development of the current polyimide membrane material for aggressive sour gas separations are presented. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

  2. Sour gas map of Alberta and British Columbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Geographic locations of sour gas wells in Alberta and British Columbia are shown (by geographic coordinates) on a large-size fold-out map issued as a supplement to the July issue of Oilweek Magazine. Pools are color coded based on hydrogen sulphide content. Five classes are recognized, i. e.: hydrogen sulphide content less than one percent; between one and 4.9 per cent; between five and 9.9 per cent; between ten and 29.9 per cent ; and hydrogen sulphide content exceeding 30 per cent. The locations of gas processing plants with sulphur recovery are also identified

  3. Heptyl vicianoside and methyl caramboside from sour star fruit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dan; Jia, Xuchao; Xie, Haihui

    2018-04-23

    Two new alkyl glycosides, heptyl vicianoside (1) and methyl 2-O-β-d-fucopyranosyl-α-l-arabinofuranoside (methyl caramboside, 4), were isolated from the sour fruit of Averrhoa carambola L. (Oxalidaceae), along with octyl vicianoside (2), cis-3-hexenyl rutinoside (3), and methyl α-d-fructofuranoside (5). Their structures were determined by spectroscopic and chemical methods. Compounds 2, 3, and 5 were obtained from the genus Averrhoa for the first time. All the compounds were evaluated for in vitro α-glucosidase, pancreatic lipase, and acetylcholinesterase inhibitory activities, but none of them were potent.

  4. 27 CFR 25.192 - Removal of sour or damaged beer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... beer. 25.192 Section 25.192 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO TAX AND TRADE BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS BEER Removals Without Payment of Tax Removal of Beer Unfit for Beverage Use § 25.192 Removal of sour or damaged beer. (a) Containers. The brewer shall remove sour or...

  5. Effect of adding sour yoghurt and dough as bacterial inoculant on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Inoculation of whole-crop corn with sourdough and sour yoghurt significantly decreased pH, ash content and ammonia nitrogen, while dry matter determined using toloen distillation (DMT), Flieg point, crude protein (CP), and total nitrogen increased (P<0.05). Key words: Silage, sour yoghurt, sourdough, corn forage.

  6. Evaluation and improvement of sour property packages in UniSim design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, J.; Zhao, E.; Wang, L.; Saha, S. [Honeywell, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This presentation described specialty fluid packages for modeling oil and gas process systems involving sour gases in contact with aqueous phase. UniSim Design is a popular process simulation tool in the oil and gas industry. The sour Peng-Robinson (PR) and sour Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK) models are commonly used for handling sour system where hydrogen sulphide (H{sub 2}S), carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) or ammonia (NH{sub 3}) are in contact with an aqueous phase. These sour options combine the PR/SRK equation of state and Wilson's API-sour model where the equation of state is used to determine the fugacities of the vapor and liquid hydrocarbon phases, plus the enthalpy for all 3 phases. The Wilson's API-sour method is used for the aqueous phase calculations, which accounts for the ionization of H{sub 2}S, CO{sub 2} and NH{sub 3} in the aqueous phase. The efficiency of these 2 thermodynamic property packages were evaluated in this study by comparing industrial and experimental data and the results from other similar models. The purpose of this study was to improve these property packages for more accurate and reliable modeling of sour systems. tabs., figs.

  7. Investigating animal health effects of sour gas acid forming emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, W.C.

    1992-01-01

    The effects of sour gas well blowout emissions on livestock are reviewed. Guidelines for safe drilling operations in hydrogen sulfide environments, general hazards and characteristics of hydrogen sulfide, and guidelines for field investigation into the effects of sour gas and acid emissions on livestock are discussed. A case history involving the Ross No. 2 gas well blowout of July 1985 in Rankin County, Mississippi is presented. The blowout lasted for 72 days, and at peak discharge the 500 ppM radius was ca 3.5 miles. A cattle embryo transplant operation located one half mile from the well was affected by the blowout. Examination by a local veterinarian of the cattle demonstrated eye irritation, epiphora, nasal discharge and coughing. After one and a half months of exposure, most animals showed clinical signs of a severe dry hacking cough, epiphora, dry rales over the thoracic inlet, and a bronchial popping sound over the lateral thorax. All animals had eye irritation. Of 55 animals showing signs of respiratory distress and eye irritations, 15 were still clinically ill in May of 1986. 7 refs., 1 tab

  8. Sour and duke cherry viruses in South-West Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo PÉREZ-SÁNCHEZ

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the phytosanitary status of sour and duke cherry genetic resources in the Iberian Peninsula, and the incidence and leaf symptoms induced by the Prunus necrotic ringspot virus (PNRSV, Prune dwarf virus (PDV and Apple chlorotic leaf spot virus (ACLSV. Young leaf samples were taken from 204 sour and duke cherry trees belonging to ten cultivars, and were assayed by DAS-ELISA. Samples positive for any of the three viruses were also tested by RT-PCR. To associate the leaf symptoms with virus presence, 50 mature leaves from each infected tree were visually inspected during the summer. The ELISA and RT-PCR results indicated that 63% of the cherry trees were infected by at least one of these viruses. PNRSV occurred in all cultivars sampled and presented the highest infection rate (46%, followed by PDV (31% and ACLSV (6%. Many trees, (60 to 100%, were asymptomatic while harbouring single and mixed virus infections. The leaf symptoms associated with the viruses included chlorotic and dark brown necrotic ringspots on secondary veins and interveinal regions, for PNRSV, generalized chlorosis around the midveins, for PDV, chlorotic and reddish necrotic ringspots, for ACLSV, and generalized interveinal chlorosis, for mixed PNRSV and PDVinfections.

  9. Cross section and method uncertainties: the application of sensitivity analysis to study their relationship in radiation transport benchmark problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weisbi, C.R.; Oblow, E.M.; Ching, J.; White, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Drischler, J.

    1975-08-01

    Sensitivity analysis is applied to the study of an air transport benchmark calculation to quantify and distinguish between cross-section and method uncertainties. The boundary detector response was converged with respect to spatial and angular mesh size, P/sub l/ expansion of the scattering kernel, and the number and location of energy grid boundaries. The uncertainty in the detector response due to uncertainties in nuclear data is 17.0 percent (one standard deviation, not including uncertainties in energy and angular distribution) based upon the ENDF/B-IV ''error files'' including correlations in energy and reaction type. Differences of approximately 6 percent can be attributed exclusively to differences in processing multigroup transfer matrices. Formal documentation of the PUFF computer program for the generation of multigroup covariance matrices is presented. (47 figures, 14 tables) (U.S.)

  10. A review of the implications of sour gas setbacks on the ability to develop property : public safety and sour gas recommendation 53

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-09-01

    All sour gas facilities in Alberta have a required setback, which is the minimum distance that must be maintained between the energy facility and a dwelling, rural housing development, urban centre or public facility. The size of the setback depends on the classification levels of the sour gas facilities. This paper reviewed the economic implications of sour gas setback restrictions for landowners with reference to Recommendation 53. The methodology of the study included a telephone and electronic mail survey to prequalify municipalities, cities and towns located in the sour gas producing regions of Alberta and the selection of 11 cases for further detailed analysis. The findings of the survey and case studies were then used to examine whether landowners were treated fairly in cases where a setback impact occurred. The frequency of setback incidents was described as common by 13 jurisdictions, occasional by 33 jurisdictions and as emerging by 30 jurisdictions. Results indicated that impacts on property development due to sour gas setbacks were widespread across the province. Observed mitigation measures included the modification of development plans by landowners to avoid setback restrictions; encouraging land development proposals away from areas known to have sour gas activity; and the oil and gas industry working with landowners to locate proposed facilities in order to minimize setback restrictions. Results of the survey suggested that ineffective communication was the predominant factor leading to conflicts, particularly when parties were not familiar with setback requirements or the implications for property development. It was suggested that policy makers should aim to reduce the number of conflicts between sour gas setbacks and property development. Recommendations to improve communication included closing gaps in regulations, processes and practices; and reducing surface and subsurface interface conflicts. 9 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs

  11. Antihyperlipidemic Effects of Sour Cherries Characterized by Different In Vitro Antioxidant Power and Polyphenolic Composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papp, Nóra; Blázovics, Anna; Fébel, Hedvig; Salido, Sofía; Altarejos, Joaquín; Fehér, Erzsébet; Kocsis, Ibolya; Szentmihályi, Klára; Abrankó, László; Hegedűs, Attila; Stefanovits-Bányai, Éva

    2015-12-01

    The aims of the present study were to clarify in vivo effects of three sour cherry cultivars characterized by different polyphenolic composition in hyperlipidemic animals in a short term experiment. The three different sour cherry cultivars were chosen based on their total in vitro antioxidant capacity, total polyphenolic, monomeric anthocyanin and flavonoid content. Male Wistar rats were divided randomly into eight groups: rats kept on normal diet (control) and normal diet supplied with sour cherry powder of one of the three cultivars; others were kept on fat-rich diet and fat-rich diet supplied with sour cherry powder prepared from one of the three cultivars. The treatment lasted 10 days. Lyophilized sour cherry administered in the diet decreased both total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol levels, and increased the HDL cholesterol concentration in sera of hyperlipidemic animals. Significant differences were found in the efficacy of different sour cherry cultivars in case of hyperlipidemia. Sour cherries characterized by higher polyphenol content seem to have a more pronounced effect on serum cholesterol levels. Our results suggest that besides anthocyanins, colourless polyphenols also have lipid lowering effect.

  12. Compact type mutants in apple and sour cherries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zagaja, S.W.; Przybyla, A.

    1976-01-01

    Induction of mutations in deciduous fruits is considered complementary to the conventional breeding methods. Several promissing mutants, particularly in apples, were described and some of them were introduced to commercial orchards. Studies described herein are aimed at developing compact type mutants in apple cultivars, apple rootstocks and in sour cherry cultivars. Data obtained so far confirm the results of the other authors, who developed compact type mutants in apples and sweet cherries. Physiological studies have shown that the leaves of spontaneous apple mutants of compact type are more efficient in photosynthesis than the leaves of respective standards. In spite of this, using branch ringing techniques, it was found that the leaves of compacts and those of standards do not differ in their productivity. There seem to be several advantages in employing tissue culture technique in mutation breeding. That is why a project was started to work out a method of growing apple shoots from adventitious buds developed on sections of roots. (author)

  13. Sample application of sensitivity/uncertainty analysis techniques to a groundwater transport problem. National Low-Level Waste Management Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seitz, R.R.; Rood, A.S.; Harris, G.A.; Maheras, S.J.; Kotecki, M.

    1991-06-01

    The primary objective of this document is to provide sample applications of selected sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques within the context of the radiological performance assessment process. These applications were drawn from the companion document Guidelines for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Low-Level Radioactive Waste Performance Assessment Computer Codes (S. Maheras and M. Kotecki, DOE/LLW-100, 1990). Three techniques are illustrated in this document: one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) analysis, fractional factorial design, and Latin hypercube sampling. The report also illustrates the differences in sensitivity and uncertainty analysis at the early and latter stages of the performance assessment process, and potential pitfalls that can be encountered when applying the techniques. The emphasis is on application of the techniques as opposed to the actual results, since the results are hypothetical and are not based on site-specific conditions

  14. Polynomial chaos methods for hyperbolic partial differential equations numerical techniques for fluid dynamics problems in the presence of uncertainties

    CERN Document Server

    Pettersson, Mass Per; Nordström, Jan

    2015-01-01

    This monograph presents computational techniques and numerical analysis to study conservation laws under uncertainty using the stochastic Galerkin formulation. With the continual growth of computer power, these methods are becoming increasingly popular as an alternative to more classical sampling-based techniques. The approach described in the text takes advantage of stochastic Galerkin projections applied to the original conservation laws to produce a large system of modified partial differential equations, the solutions to which directly provide a full statistical characterization of the effect of uncertainties. Polynomial Chaos Methods of Hyperbolic Partial Differential Equations focuses on the analysis of stochastic Galerkin systems obtained for linear and non-linear convection-diffusion equations and for a systems of conservation laws; a detailed well-posedness and accuracy analysis is presented to enable the design of robust and stable numerical methods. The exposition is restricted to one spatial dime...

  15. Advanced technologies for manufacturing high strength sour grade UOE line pipe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobayashi, Kenji; Omura, Tomohiko; Takahashi, Nobuaki; Minato, Izuru; Yamamoto, Akio [Sumitomo Metal Industries, Ltd., Kashima, (Japan)

    2010-07-01

    A new kind of high strength pipeline has been manufactured for sour service in offshore pipelines. This paper first presents a review of developments in manufacturing technology to improve sour resistance. This was particularly the case with Grade UOE line pipe. The improvement was achieved by optimizing the continuous casting process, monitoring the shape of inclusions (such as MnS, CaS, Al2O3, CaO-Al2O3) and decreasing coarse precipitates (Nb(C,N), TiN). The study then used the HIC evaluation method to determine hydrogen induced cracking (HIC) resistance of the material and HAZ test for sulfide stress cracking (SSC) resistance. The evaluation of the NACE TM0284 solution A showed that these pipelines are able to resist severe sour conditions because of good HIC and SSC resistance. Optimizing others components like alloying elements and the ACC process would improve sour resistance in future applications.

  16. Development of compact mutants in apple and sour cherry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zagaja, S.W.; Przybyla, A.; Machnik, B.

    1982-01-01

    During the period 1973 - 79 studies were conducted with the aim of developing compact mutants in apple and cherry cultivars and in apple vegetative rootstocks. During the investigations the effect of the dose of gamma rays on frequency of the mutants was studied. Attempts were also made to evolve a micropropagation technique adapted to propagate P 2 and P 22 apple rootstocks, as an aid in mutation breeding. Several mutants were produced in all the material studied, but none of them have yet reached a sufficient developmental stage to enable their complete assessment. On the basis of the results obtained so far the following conclusions can be drawn: higher doses of irradiation resulted in higher frequency of mutants in most apple cultivars and apple rootstocks; in sour cherries the effect of dose depended on the cultivars. Among V 1 shoots developed from sleeping buds on irradiated scion wood, compact mutants were found; their frequency, however, was about 60% lower than among V 1 shoots developed directly from irradiated dormant buds. In apple rootstocks A 2 and M 26 several dwarfed mutants were found; some of these produced thorny plants and some had lower rooting ability; both these characteristics are inferior from the practical point of view. Multiplication and rooting media for in vitro propagation of apple rootstocks, worked out for M 26, were found unsuitable for the rootstocks P 2 and P 22; modifications made in the growth substance composition of the above media enabled satisfactory propagation to be obtained. (author)

  17. Precipitation hardened nickel-base alloys for sour gas environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igarashi, M.; Mukai, S.; Kudo, T.; Okada, Y.; Ikeda, A.

    1987-01-01

    SCC (Stress Corrosion Cracking) in sour gas environments of γ'(gamma prime: Ni/sub 3/(Ti and/or Al)) and γ''(gamma double prime: Ni/sub 3/Nb) precipitation hardened nickel-base alloys has been studied using the SSRT (Slow Strain Rate Tensile) test, anodic polarization measurement and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The γ'-type alloy containing Ti was more susceptible to SCC in the SSRT tests up to 350 0 F(450 K) than the γ''-type alloy containing Nb. The susceptibility to SCC was related to their deformation structures in terms of stress localization and sensitivity to pitting corrosion in H/sub 2/S solutions. TEM observation showed the γ'-type alloy deformed by the superlattice dislocations in coplanar structures. This mode of deformation induced the stress localization to some boundaries such as grain boundary and as a result the susceptibility to SCC of the γ'-type alloy was increased. On the other hand, the γ''-type alloy deformed by the massive dislocation not in coplanar structures so that it was less susceptible to SCC in terms of the stress localization. The anodic polarization measurement suggested the γ'-type alloy was more susceptible to pitting corrosion compared with the γ''-type alloy

  18. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the formulation of an uncertainty quantification challenge problem consisting of five subproblems. These problems focus on key aspects of uncertainty characterization, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, extreme-case analysis, and robust design.

  19. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software

  20. A large increase of sour taste receptor cells in Skn-1-deficient mice does not alter the number of their sour taste signal-transmitting gustatory neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeda, Naohiro; Narukawa, Masataka; Ishimaru, Yoshiro; Yamamoto, Kurumi; Misaka, Takumi; Abe, Keiko

    2017-05-01

    The connections between taste receptor cells (TRCs) and innervating gustatory neurons are formed in a mutually dependent manner during development. To investigate whether a change in the ratio of cell types that compose taste buds influences the number of innervating gustatory neurons, we analyzed the proportion of gustatory neurons that transmit sour taste signals in adult Skn-1a -/- mice in which the number of sour TRCs is greatly increased. We generated polycystic kidney disease 1 like 3-wheat germ agglutinin (pkd1l3-WGA)/Skn-1a +/+ and pkd1l3-WGA/Skn-1a -/- mice by crossing Skn-1a -/- mice and pkd1l3-WGA transgenic mice, in which neural pathways of sour taste signals can be visualized. The number of WGA-positive cells in the circumvallate papillae is 3-fold higher in taste buds of pkd1l3-WGA/Skn-1a -/- mice relative to pkd1l3-WGA/Skn-1a +/+ mice. Intriguingly, the ratio of WGA-positive neurons to P2X 2 -expressing gustatory neurons in nodose/petrosal ganglia was similar between pkd1l3-WGA/Skn-1a +/+ and pkd1l3-WGA/Skn-1a -/- mice. In conclusion, an alteration in the ratio of cell types that compose taste buds does not influence the number of gustatory neurons that transmit sour taste signals. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. Community inflamed: Passionate opposition mounted to sour-gas drilling plan upwind of Canada's energy capital

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenz, A.

    1998-01-01

    Residents of Bearspaw and Glendale, two small communities near Calgary are up in arms in opposition to the plans of Canadian 88 Energy Company to drill a 'level four' sour gas well in the area. The target gas contains 33.9 per cent hydrogen sulfide, a substance rated as lethal in much lower doses. Since the well is slated to be drilled on high ground upwind of Calgary, an accident causing a leak could expose community residents and thousands of Calgarians within half hour distance from the well to hydrogen sulfide concentrations several times higher than the Alberta Energy Board considers safe. Seepage into the water system poses yet another danger. For reasons that are not too well understood the Alberta Energy Board relaxed the size of the area for which the company must provide an emergency response plan from a radius of 18 km to a radius of 4 km, considered by experts to be totally unacceptable in a populated area. The Board granted the relaxation of the area covered by the emergency response plan on the assurances of the Company that it would substantially increase the criteria needed to make the plan manageable. However, the community is not convinced that the emergency response plan comes near to addressing the problem, and is prepared to oppose drilling of the well by all available means

  2. Fast Lemons and Sour Boulders: Testing Crossmodal Correspondences Using an Internet-Based Testing Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andy T. Woods

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available According to a popular family of hypotheses, crossmodal matches between distinct features hold because they correspond to the same polarity on several conceptual dimensions (such as active–passive, good–bad, etc. that can be identified using the semantic differential technique. The main problem here resides in turning this hypothesis into testable empirical predictions. In the present study, we outline a series of plausible consequences of the hypothesis and test a variety of well-established and previously untested crossmodal correspondences by means of a novel internet-based testing methodology. The results highlight that the semantic hypothesis cannot easily explain differences in the prevalence of crossmodal associations built on the same semantic pattern (fast lemons, slow prunes, sour boulders, heavy red; furthermore, the semantic hypothesis only minimally predicts what happens when the semantic dimensions and polarities that are supposed to drive such crossmodal associations are made more salient (e.g., by adding emotional cues that ought to make the good/bad dimension more salient; finally, the semantic hypothesis does not explain why reliable matches are no longer observed once intramodal dimensions with congruent connotations are presented (e.g., visually presented shapes and colour do not appear to correspond.

  3. a Real-Time GIS Platform for High Sour Gas Leakage Simulation, Evaluation and Visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, M.; Liu, H.; Yang, C.

    2015-07-01

    The development of high-sulfur gas fields, also known as sour gas field, is faced with a series of safety control and emergency management problems. The GIS-based emergency response system is placed high expectations under the consideration of high pressure, high content, complex terrain and highly density population in Sichuan Basin, southwest China. The most researches on high hydrogen sulphide gas dispersion simulation and evaluation are used for environmental impact assessment (EIA) or emergency preparedness planning. This paper introduces a real-time GIS platform for high-sulfur gas emergency response. Combining with real-time data from the leak detection systems and the meteorological monitoring stations, GIS platform provides the functions of simulating, evaluating and displaying of the different spatial-temporal toxic gas distribution patterns and evaluation results. This paper firstly proposes the architecture of Emergency Response/Management System, secondly explains EPA's Gaussian dispersion model CALPUFF simulation workflow under high complex terrain and real-time data, thirdly explains the emergency workflow and spatial analysis functions of computing the accident influencing areas, population and the optimal evacuation routes. Finally, a well blow scenarios is used for verify the system. The study shows that GIS platform which integrates the real-time data and CALPUFF models will be one of the essential operational platforms for high-sulfur gas fields emergency management.

  4. Photovoltaics (PV System Energy Forecast on the Basis of the Local Weather Forecast: Problems, Uncertainties and Solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristijan Brecl

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available When integrating a photovoltaic system into a smart zero-energy or energy-plus building, or just to lower the electricity bill by rising the share of the self-consumption in a private house, it is very important to have a photovoltaic power energy forecast for the next day(s. While the commercially available forecasting services might not meet the household prosumers interests due to the price or complexity we have developed a forecasting methodology that is based on the common weather forecast. Since the forecasted meteorological data does not include the solar irradiance information, but only the weather condition, the uncertainty of the results is relatively high. However, in the presented approach, irradiance is calculated from discrete weather conditions and with correlation of forecasted meteorological data, an RMS error of 65%, and a R2 correlation factor of 0.85 is feasible.

  5. Public safety and sour gas quarterly progress report October - December 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikora, V.; Lillo, H.; Craig, M.; Neilson, G.

    2003-01-01

    This third quarterly progress report for the business year 2002-2003 on the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) Public Safety and Sour Gas initiative covers projects based on the 87 recommendations made by the Provincial Advisory Committee on Public Safety and Sour Gas (Advisory Committee) in December 2000. As of December 2002, work has been completed on 16 recommendations and is proceeding on 50 recommendations. This report includes several tables indicating the status of recommendations as either complete or ongoing. The recommendation categories include: (1) sour gas development, planning and approval, (2) sour gas operations, (3) emergency preparedness, and (4) information, communication and consultation. The report also summarizes the health effects and sour gas research. Recommendations completed as of December 2002 include: plant proliferation; pre-license review of critical well license applications; license application training/certification information requirement; increase sour gas inspections; increase inspections of new and noncompliant operators; implement 100 per cent inspection rate for critical wells near people; response to sour gas complaints; enhance EUB capability to monitor for complaint response/compliance; complaint/incident response program for Aboriginal communities; interim policy on ERP review and reduced EPZs; infrastructure and resources for Aboriginal community ERP; field staff in industry-landowner discussions; EUB involvement in mediation of application issues; and, timely and meaningful public consultation for First Nations and Metis. Alberta Health and Wellness is currently evaluating the health effects of H{sub 2}S and SO{sub 2} and the work is near completion. Other ongoing work includes the development of a draft protocol to address the involvement of regional health authorities (RHAs), the early involvement of RHAs and other local government bodies, and a process for communication between the EUB field staff and

  6. Genetic and molecular characterization of three novel S-haplotypes in sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukamoto, Tatsuya; Potter, Daniel; Tao, Ryutaro; Vieira, Cristina P; Vieira, Jorge; Iezzoni, Amy F

    2008-01-01

    Tetraploid sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L.) exhibits gametophytic self-incompatibility (GSI) whereby the specificity of self-pollen rejection is controlled by alleles of the stylar and pollen specificity genes, S-RNase and SFB (S haplotype-specific F-box protein gene), respectively. As sour cherry selections can be either self-compatible (SC) or self-incompatible (SI), polyploidy per se does not result in SC. Instead the genotype-dependent loss of SI in sour cherry is due to the accumulation of non-functional S-haplotypes. The presence of two or more non-functional S-haplotypes within sour cherry 2x pollen renders that pollen SC. Two new S-haplotypes from sour cherry, S(33) and S(34), that are presumed to be contributed by the P. fruticosa species parent, the complete S-RNase and SFB sequences of a third S-haplotype, S(35), plus the presence of two previously identified sweet cherry S-haplotypes, S(14) and S(16) are described here. Genetic segregation data demonstrated that the S(16)-, S(33)-, S(34)-, and S(35)-haplotypes present in sour cherry are fully functional. This result is consistent with our previous finding that 'hetero-allelic' pollen is incompatible in sour cherry. Phylogenetic analyses of the SFB and S-RNase sequences from available Prunus species reveal that the relationships among S-haplotypes show no correspondence to known organismal relationships at any taxonomic level within Prunus, indicating that polymorphisms at the S-locus have been maintained throughout the evolution of the genus. Furthermore, the phylogenetic relationships among SFB sequences are generally incongruent with those among S-RNase sequences for the same S-haplotypes. Hypotheses compatible with these results are discussed.

  7. Rival framings: A framework for discovering how problem formulation uncertainties shape risk management trade-offs in water resources systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, J. D.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2017-08-01

    Managing water resources systems requires coordinated operation of system infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of hydrologic extremes while balancing conflicting multisectoral demands. Traditionally, recommended management strategies are derived by optimizing system operations under a single problem framing that is assumed to accurately represent the system objectives, tacitly ignoring the myriad of effects that could arise from simplifications and mathematical assumptions made when formulating the problem. This study illustrates the benefits of a rival framings framework in which analysts instead interrogate multiple competing hypotheses of how complex water management problems should be formulated. Analyzing rival framings helps discover unintended consequences resulting from inherent biases of alternative problem formulations. We illustrate this on the monsoonal Red River basin in Vietnam by optimizing operations of the system's four largest reservoirs under several different multiobjective problem framings. In each rival framing, we specify different quantitative representations of the system's objectives related to hydropower production, agricultural water supply, and flood protection of the capital city of Hanoi. We find that some formulations result in counterintuitive behavior. In particular, policies designed to minimize expected flood damages inadvertently increase the risk of catastrophic flood events in favor of hydropower production, while min-max objectives commonly used in robust optimization provide poor representations of system tradeoffs due to their instability. This study highlights the importance of carefully formulating and evaluating alternative mathematical abstractions of stakeholder objectives describing the multisectoral water demands and risks associated with hydrologic extremes.

  8. Solving a bi-objective vehicle routing problem under uncertainty by a revised multi-choice goal programming approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Yousefi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A vehicle routing problem with time windows (VRPTW is an important problem with many real applications in a transportation problem. The optimum set of routes with the minimum distance and vehicles used is determined to deliver goods from a central depot, using a vehicle with capacity constraint. In the real cases, there are other objective functions that should be considered. This paper considers not only the minimum distance and the number of vehicles used as the objective function, the customer’s satisfaction with the priority of customers is also considered. Additionally, it presents a new model for a bi-objective VRPTW solved by a revised multi-choice goal programming approach, in which the decision maker determines optimistic aspiration levels for each objective function. Two meta-heuristic methods, namely simulated annealing (SA and genetic algorithm (GA, are proposed to solve large-sized problems. Moreover, the experimental design is used to tune the parameters of the proposed algorithms. The presented model is verified by a real-world case study and a number of test problems. The computational results verify the efficiency of the proposed SA and GA.

  9. Corrosion behaviour of steels and CRA in sour gas environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lara, M. Alvarez de; Lancha, A.M.; Hernandez, F.; Gomez-Briceno, D. [CIEMAT, Avenida Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Coca, P. [ELCOGAS, S.A., C.T. GICC Puertollano, Carretera de Calzada de Calatrava a Puertollano, km 27, 13500 Puertollano, Ciudad Real (Spain)

    2004-07-01

    The ELCOGAS power plant in Puertollano (Spain), with 335 MWe (ISO conditions), is an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plant built to demonstrate both the technical and economic feasibility of this alternative for clean generation of electricity from coal. IGCC technology is based on a coal gasification process, namely the conversion of coal into combustible gas, which is then subjected to an exhaustive cleaning process. The result is a synthetic gas, virtually free of pollutants that can be burned with a high efficiency in a combined cycle electricity-generating unit. Basically, the ELCOGAS plant consists of three islands jointly designed and integrated into the process: gasification island, air separation island and combined cycle island. In the gasification island, the gas from the gasifier is cleaned (de-dusted and washed) and desulfurized before being sent to the combined cycle island. The washing system consists of a Venturi scrubber with a separator where halogens and alkalis (NH{sub 3}, HCl, HF) are removed from the previously de-dusted gas by means of the wash water. The halogens and alkalis removed are then stripped from the wash water as stripped gas, which is a sour gas. The coal-gas coming from the separator proceeds to sulphur removal in a MDEA system and then, the clean gas (mainly CO, H{sub 2}) is sent to the combined cycle plant. As COS is a significant part of the sulphur containing gases in the coal gas, hydrolysis of the COS to H{sub 2}S takes place before the desulfurization stage, since MDEA is a selective amine for H{sub 2}S. There are many important areas related to materials corrosion within the gas cleaning system. In the ELCOGAS plant carbon steels, austenitic stainless steels and nickel based alloys, such as AISI 316Ti, AISI 904L and Hastelloy C276, are used in the Venturi, the water separator and the strippers. AISI 316Ti is used for the gas piping from the separator to the COS hydrolysis system. Laboratory tests to evaluate

  10. Polyphenols and Volatiles in Fruits of Two Sour Cherry Cultivars, Some Berry Fruits and Their Jams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branka Levaj

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports about the content of polyphenols and volatiles in fresh fruits of two sour cherry cultivars (Marasca and Oblačinska, some berry fruits (strawberry Maya, raspberry Willamette and wild blueberry and the corresponding low sugar jams. Phenolic compounds (hydroxybenzoic and hydroxycinnamic acids, flavan 3-ols and flavonols were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC. Those found in the fruits were also found in the jams. Jams contained lower amounts of polyphenols than fresh fuits, but their overall retention in jams was relatively high. Among fruits, sour cherry Marasca had the highest level of polyphenols, while sour cherry Marasca jam and raspberry Willamette jam had the highest level of polyphenols among jams. The major flavonoid in all investigated fruits, except in sour cherry Oblačinska, was (–-epicatechin. Sour cherry Marasca had the highest level of (–-epicatechin (95.75 mg/kg, and it also contained very high amounts of flavonols, derivatives of quercetin and kaempferol. Hydroxybenzoic acids (HBAs were not found in sour cherries Marasca and Oblačinska, but were found in berry fruits and jams. Phenolic compound (+-gallocatechin was found only in Marasca fruit and jam. Ellagic acid was found in the highest concentration in raspberry Willamette fruit and jam. Hydroxycinnamic acids (HCAs were found in all the investigated fruits, with the exception of a derivative of ferulic acid, which was not found in strawberry. Derivatives of caffeic, p-coumaric and chlorogenic acids were found in all the investigated fruits, with chlorogenic acid being the most abundant, especially in sour cherry Marasca. Volatiles were determined by gas chromatography (GC and expressed as the peak area of the identified compounds. All investigated volatiles of fresh fruit were also determined in the related jams with relatively high retention. Sour cherries Marasca and Oblačinska contained the same volatile compounds, but

  11. The principal component analysis method used with polynomial Chaos expansion to propagate uncertainties through critical transport problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rising, M. E.; Prinja, A. K. [Univ. of New Mexico, Dept. of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering, Albuquerque, NM 87131 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    A critical neutron transport problem with random material properties is introduced. The total cross section and the average neutron multiplicity are assumed to be uncertain, characterized by the mean and variance with a log-normal distribution. The average neutron multiplicity and the total cross section are assumed to be uncorrected and the material properties for differing materials are also assumed to be uncorrected. The principal component analysis method is used to decompose the covariance matrix into eigenvalues and eigenvectors and then 'realizations' of the material properties can be computed. A simple Monte Carlo brute force sampling of the decomposed covariance matrix is employed to obtain a benchmark result for each test problem. In order to save computational time and to characterize the moments and probability density function of the multiplication factor the polynomial chaos expansion method is employed along with the stochastic collocation method. A Gauss-Hermite quadrature set is convolved into a multidimensional tensor product quadrature set and is successfully used to compute the polynomial chaos expansion coefficients of the multiplication factor. Finally, for a particular critical fuel pin assembly the appropriate number of random variables and polynomial expansion order are investigated. (authors)

  12. Efficacy of gaseous ozone to counteract postharvest table grape sour rot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, L; Caputo, L; Quintieri, L; de Candia, S; Baruzzi, F

    2017-09-01

    This work aims at studying the efficacy of low doses of gaseous ozone in postharvest control of the table grape sour rot, a disease generally attributed to a consortium of non-Saccharomyces yeasts (NSY) and acetic acid bacteria (AAB). Sour rot incidence of wounded berries, inoculated with 8 NSYstrains, or 7 AAB, or 56 yeast-bacterium associations, was monitored at 25 °C up to six days. Sour rot incidence in wounded berries inoculated with yeast-bacterium associations resulted higher than in berries inoculated with one single NSY or AAB strain. Among all NSY-AAB associations, the yeast-bacterium association composed of Candida zemplinina CBS 9494 (Cz) and Acetobacter syzygii LMG 21419 (As) showed the highest prevalence of sour rot; thus, after preliminary in vitro assays, this simplified As-Cz microbial consortium was inoculated in wounded berries that were stored at 4 °C for ten days under ozone (2.14 mg m -3 ) or in air. At the end of cold storage, no berries showed sour-rot symptoms although ozonation mainly affected As viable cell count. After additional 12 days at 25 °C, the sour rot index of inoculated As-Cz berries previously cold-stored under ozone or in air accounted for 22.6 ± 3.7% and 66.7 ± 4.5%, respectively. Molecular analyses of dominant AAB and NSY populations of both sound and rotten berries during post-refrigeration period revealed the appearance of new strains mainly belonging to Gluconobacter albidus and Hanseniaspora uvarum species, respectively. Cold ozonation resulted an effective approach to extend the shelf-life of table grapes also after cold storage. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Source-Sink Relations in Fruits VII. Effects of Pruning in Sour Cherry and Plum

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toldam-Andersen, Torben Bo; Hansen, P.

    1993-01-01

    Sour cherries cv. 'Stevnsbær' and plums cv. 'Victoria' were heavily pruned in 1987. Fruit samples were collected during the growing season and concentrations of different quality components were determined. Pruning resulted in a small increase in fruit size, the effect being greater on the older...... trees (sour cherries) or at the lower crop load (plum). Additionally, pruning decreased the con­centrations of total and soluble dry matter and of anthocya­nins ('Stevnsbær'), while titratable acids showed an increas­ing tendency. The effects of pruning are discussed based on influences on root...

  14. Mulher, cura e pajelança em Soure (Ilha do Marajó-PA).

    OpenAIRE

    Mayra Cristina Silva Faro; UEPA

    2012-01-01

    Neste trabalho pretendo apresentar alguns resultados de uma pesquisa que vem sendo realizada desde 2009 sobre a pajelança cabocla e as mulheres pajés na cidade de Soure, Ilha do Marajó/PA. Este estudo tem como objetivos analisar práticas e saberes de cura em Soure, e observar o papel da mulher no contexto religioso e simbólico da pajelança. Compreende-se pajelança cabocla como um conjunto de crenças e práticas de cura bastante difundida na Amazônia, em que encontram-se mesclados em graus vari...

  15. The Fisher-information-based uncertainty relation, Cramer-Rao inequality and kinetic energy for the D-dimensional central problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dehesa, J S [Departamento de Fisica Atomica, Molecular y Nuclear, Universidad de Granada, 18071-Granada (Spain); Gonzalez-Ferez, R [Departamento de Fisica Atomica, Molecular y Nuclear, Universidad de Granada, 18071-Granada (Spain); Sanchez-Moreno, P [Departamento de Fisica Atomica, Molecular y Nuclear, Universidad de Granada, 18071-Granada (Spain)

    2007-02-23

    The inequality >= (l+1/2){sup 2}, with L being the grand orbital quantum number, and its conjugate relation for ((r{sup 2}) (p{sup -2})) are shown to be fulfilled in the D-dimensional central problem. Their use has allowed us to improve the Fisher-information-based uncertainty relation (I{sub {rho}}I{sub {gamma}}{>=} const) and the Cramer-Rao inequalities ((r{sup 2})I{sub {rho}} {>=} D{sup 2}; (p{sup 2})I{sub {gamma}} {>=} D{sup 2}). In addition, the kinetic energy and the radial expectation value (r{sup 2}) are shown to be bounded from below by the Fisher information in position and momentum spaces, denoted by I{sub {rho}} and I{sub {gamma}}, respectively.

  16. 5-HT3A -driven green fluorescent protein delineates gustatory fibers innervating sour-responsive taste cells: A labeled line for sour taste?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stratford, J M; Larson, E D; Yang, R; Salcedo, E; Finger, T E

    2017-07-01

    Taste buds contain multiple cell types with each type expressing receptors and transduction components for a subset of taste qualities. The sour sensing cells, Type III cells, release serotonin (5-HT) in response to the presence of sour (acidic) tastants and this released 5-HT activates 5-HT 3 receptors on the gustatory nerves. We show here, using 5-HT 3A GFP mice, that 5-HT 3 -expressing nerve fibers preferentially contact and receive synaptic contact from Type III taste cells. Further, these 5-HT 3 -expressing nerve fibers terminate in a restricted central-lateral portion of the nucleus of the solitary tract (nTS)-the same area that shows increased c-Fos expression upon presentation of a sour tastant (30 mM citric acid). This acid stimulation also evokes c-Fos in the laterally adjacent mediodorsal spinal trigeminal nucleus (DMSp5), but this trigeminal activation is not associated with the presence of 5-HT 3 -expressing nerve fibers as it is in the nTS. Rather, the neuronal activation in the trigeminal complex likely is attributable to direct depolarization of acid-sensitive trigeminal nerve fibers, for example, polymodal nociceptors, rather than through taste buds. Taken together, these findings suggest that transmission of sour taste information involves communication between Type III taste cells and 5-HT 3 -expressing afferent nerve fibers that project to a restricted portion of the nTS consistent with a crude mapping of taste quality information in the primary gustatory nucleus. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Uncertainties in hydrogen combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stamps, D.W.; Wong, C.C.; Nelson, L.S.

    1988-01-01

    Three important areas of hydrogen combustion with uncertainties are identified: high-temperature combustion, flame acceleration and deflagration-to-detonation transition, and aerosol resuspension during hydrogen combustion. The uncertainties associated with high-temperature combustion may affect at least three different accident scenarios: the in-cavity oxidation of combustible gases produced by core-concrete interactions, the direct containment heating hydrogen problem, and the possibility of local detonations. How these uncertainties may affect the sequence of various accident scenarios is discussed and recommendations are made to reduce these uncertainties. 40 references

  18. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.

    1994-01-01

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  19. Evaluation of maize-soybean flour blends for sour maize bread ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Properties examined included amylose content, bulk density, dispersibility, swelling power, water absorption capacity and viscoelastic properties. The effect of the different flour/meal samples on the properties of sour maize bread were evaluated by baking bread samples with the different flours/meals using a mixed starter ...

  20. Changes in sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L.) antioxidants during nectar processing and in vitro gastrointestinal digestion.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toydemir, G.; Capanoglu, E.; Kamiloglu, S.; Boyacioglu, D.; Vos, de C.H.; Hall, R.D.; Beekwilder, M.J.

    2013-01-01

    Sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L.) is rich in polyphenols, and like its processed products, is especially rich in anthocyanins. We have applied HPLC, spectrophotometric and on-line antioxidant detection methods to follow the fate of cherry antioxidants during an entire multi-step industrial-scale

  1. Music to Make Your Mouth Water? Assessing the Potential Influence of Sour Music on Salivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qian J.; Knoeferle, Klemens; Spence, Charles

    2017-01-01

    People robustly associate various sound attributes with specific smells/tastes, and soundtracks that are associated with specific tastes can influence people’s evaluation of the taste of food and drink. However, it is currently unknown whether such soundtracks directly impact the eating experience via physiological changes (an embodiment account), or whether they act at a higher cognitive level, or both. The present research assessed a version of the embodiment account, where a soundtrack associated with sourness is hypothesized to induce a physiological response in the listener by increasing salivary flow. Salivation was measured while participants were exposed to three different experimental conditions – a sour soundtrack, a muted lemon video showing a man eating a lemon, and a silent baseline condition. The results revealed that salivation during the lemon video condition was significantly greater than in the sour soundtrack and baseline conditions. However, contrary to our hypothesis, there was no significant difference between salivation levels in the sour soundtrack compared to the baseline condition. These results are discussed in terms of potential mechanisms underlying the auditory modulation of taste perception/evaluation. PMID:28491044

  2. Phytoplasmas in apricot, peach and sour cherry orchards in East Bohemia, Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ludvíková, H.; Fránová, Jana; Suchá, J.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 64, Suppl. (2011), s. 67-68 ISSN 1721-8861 R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC09021 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50510513 Keywords : Candidatus Phytoplasma prunorum * PCR/RFLP * apricot, peach and sour cherry orchards Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 0.592, year: 2011

  3. Music to Make Your Mouth Water? Assessing the Potential Influence of Sour Music on Salivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian J. Wang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available People robustly associate various sound attributes with specific smells/tastes, and soundtracks that are associated with specific tastes can influence people’s evaluation of the taste of food and drink. However, it is currently unknown whether such soundtracks directly impact the eating experience via physiological changes (an embodiment account, or whether they act at a higher cognitive level, or both. The present research assessed a version of the embodiment account, where a soundtrack associated with sourness is hypothesized to induce a physiological response in the listener by increasing salivary flow. Salivation was measured while participants were exposed to three different experimental conditions – a sour soundtrack, a muted lemon video showing a man eating a lemon, and a silent baseline condition. The results revealed that salivation during the lemon video condition was significantly greater than in the sour soundtrack and baseline conditions. However, contrary to our hypothesis, there was no significant difference between salivation levels in the sour soundtrack compared to the baseline condition. These results are discussed in terms of potential mechanisms underlying the auditory modulation of taste perception/evaluation.

  4. Fruit and snack consumption related to sweet, sour and salty taste preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sijtsema, S.J.; Reinders, M.J.; Hiller, S.; Guardia, D.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose – To better understand fruit consumption and its determinants this paper aims to explore the relationship between the consumption of different types of fruit and other snacks and consumer taste preferences for sweet, salty and sour is explored. Design/methodology/approach – Respondents

  5. Identification of crude-oil components and microorganisms that cause souring under anaerobic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, R; Toyama, K; Miyanaga, K; Tanji, Y

    2014-02-01

    Oil souring has important implications with respect to energy resources. Understanding the physiology of the microorganisms that play a role and the biological mechanisms are both important for the maintenance of infrastructure and mitigation of corrosion processes. The objective of this study was to identify crude-oil components and microorganisms in oil-field water that contribute to crude-oil souring. To identify the crude-oil components and microorganisms that are responsible for anaerobic souring in oil reservoirs, biological conversion of crude-oil components under anaerobic conditions was investigated. Microorganisms in oil field water in Akita, Japan degraded alkanes and aromatics to volatile fatty acids (VFAs) under anaerobic conditions, and fermenting bacteria such as Fusibacter sp. were involved in VFA production. Aromatics such as toluene and ethylbenzene were degraded by sulfate-reducing bacteria (Desulfotignum sp.) via the fumarate-addition pathway and not only degradation of VFA but also degradation of aromatics by sulfate-reducing bacteria was the cause of souring. Naphthenic acid and 2,4-xylenol were not converted.

  6. Direct photothermal techniques for quantification of anthocyanins in sour cherry cultivars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doka, O.; Ficzek, G.; Bicanic, D.D.; Spruijt, R.B.; Luterotti, S.; Toth, M.; Buijnsters, J.G.; György Végvári, G.

    2011-01-01

    The analytical performance of the newly proposed laser-based photoacoustic spectroscopy (PAS) and of optothermal window (OW) method for quantification of total anthocyanin concentration (TAC) in five sour cherry varieties is compared to that of the spectrophotometry (SP). High performance liquid

  7. Understanding uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lindley, Dennis V

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

  8. Design of ultrasonic probe and evaluation of ultrasonic waves on E.coli in Sour Cherry Juice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Hosseinzadeh Samani

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The common method used for juice pasteurization is the thermal method since thermal methods contribute highly to inactivating microbes. However, applying high temperatures would lead to inefficient effects on nutrition and food value. Such effects may include vitamin loss, nutritional flavor loss, non-enzyme browning, and protein reshaping (Kuldiloke, 2002. In order to decrease the adverse effects of the thermal pasteurization method, other methods capable of inactivation of microorganisms can be applied. In doing so, non-thermal methods including pasteurization using high hydrostatic pressure processing (HPP, electrical fields, and ultrasound waves are of interest (Chen and Tseng, 1996. The reason for diminishing microbial count in the presence of ultrasonic waves could be due to the burst of very tiny bubbles developed by ultrasounds which expand quickly and burst in a short time. Due to this burst, special temperature and pressure conditions are developed which could initiate or intensify several physical and/or chemical reactions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the non-thermal ultrasonic method and its effective factors on the E.coli bacteria of sour cherry. Materials and methods: In order to supply uniform ultrasonic waves, a 1000 W electric generator (Model MPI, Switzerland working at 20±1 kHz frequency was used. The aim of this study is to evaluate the non-thermal ultrasonic method and its effective factors on the E.coli bacteria of sour cherry. For this purpose, a certain amount of sour cherry fruit was purchased from local markets. First, the fruits were washed, cleaned and cored. The prepared fruits were then dewatered using an electric juicer. In order to separate pulp suspensions and tissue components, the extracted juice was poured into a centrifuge with the speed of 6000 rpm for 20 min. For complete separation of the remaining suspended particles, the transparent portion of the extract was passed through a

  9. Inverse problems and uncertainty quantification

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander; Matthies, Hermann G.

    2013-01-01

    computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and quadratic Bayesian update on the small but taxing example

  10. Measurement Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Michael

    Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

  11. Investigation of V and V process for thermal fatigue issue in a sodium cooled fast reactor – Application of uncertainty quantification scheme in verification and validation with fluid-structure thermal interaction problem in T-junction piping system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanaka, Masaaki, E-mail: tanaka.masaaki@jaea.go.jp

    2014-11-15

    Highlights: • Outline of numerical simulation code MUGTHES for fluid-structure thermal interaction was described. • The grid convergence index (GCI) method was applied according to the ASME V and V-20 guide. • Uncertainty of MUGTHES can be successfully quantified for thermal-hydraulic problems and unsteady heat conduction problems in the structure. • Validation for fluid-structure thermal interaction problem in a T-junction piping system was well conducted. - Abstract: Thermal fatigue caused by thermal mixing phenomena is one of the most important issues in design and safety assessment of fast breeder reactors. A numerical simulation code MUGTHES consisting of two calculation modules for unsteady thermal-hydraulics analysis and unsteady heat conduction analysis in structure has been developed to predict thermal mixing phenomena and to estimate thermal response of structure under the thermal interaction between fluid and structure fields. Although verification and validation (V and V) of MUGTHES has been required, actual procedure for uncertainty quantification is not fixed yet. In order to specify an actual procedure of V and V, uncertainty quantifications with the grid convergence index (GCI) estimation according to the existing guidelines were conducted in fundamental laminar flow problems for the thermal-hydraulics analysis module, and also uncertainty for the structure heat conduction analysis module and conjugate heat transfer model was quantified in comparison with the theoretical solutions of unsteady heat conduction problems. After the verification, MUGTHES was validated for a practical fluid-structure thermal interaction problem in T-junction piping system compared with measured results of velocity and temperatures of fluid and structure. Through the numerical simulations in the verification and validation, uncertainty of the code was successfully estimated and applicability of the code to the thermal fatigue issue was confirmed.

  12. Application of natural antimicrobial compounds for reservoir souring and MIC prevention in offshore oil and gas production systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Mette Hedegaard; Skovhus, Torben Lund; Mashietti, Marco

    Offshore oil production facilities are subjectable to internal corrosion, potentially leading to human and environmental risk and significant economic losses. Microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC) and reservoir souring - sulphide production by sulfate reducing microorganisms in the reservo...

  13. Advanced oxidation processes for treatment of petroleum refinery sour waters; Processos oxidativos avancados para tratamento de aguas acidas de refinaria de petroleo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro, Antonio V.; Coelho, Alessandra D.; Sant' Anna Junior, Geraldo L.; Dezotti, Marcia [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Programa de Engenharia Quimica

    2004-07-01

    The characteristics of the waste water generated by the petroleum refineries are related to the type and amount of processed oil, to the nature and the efficiency of the refining operation. The effluents are composed basically of oily waters, originating from of the contact with the oil. Among them, the current of sour water is one of the most preoccupying due to its composition: sulfide, ammonia, mercaptans, phenol, dissolved oil, basic pH, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) high. The aim of this work was to evaluate the advanced oxidation processes to degrade sour water (UV radiation, H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and H{sub 2}O{sub 2}/UV, photocatalysis, Fenton and photo-Fenton). All process, except Fenton and photo-Fenton, did not supply satisfactory results, reducing 25% of initial DOC, which it is of 450 mg/L. The results using the Fenton process reached removal of 50% of the initial COD, and when photo- Fenton process obtaining removal of 90%. The processes Fenton and photo-Fenton were shown capable to degrade this kind of waste water, minimizing the environmental problems and corrosion, operating as a pre-treatment for the biological system, or acting alone to degrade the organic matter contained, seeking the water reuse. The effluent used in this work came from Duque de Caxias Refinery (Reduc)/PETROBRAS. (author)

  14. Domino effect of pollution from sour gas fields : failing legume nodulation and the honey industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pirker, H.J.

    1998-01-01

    The sustainability of the honey industry in Alberta's Peace Country has been threatened by pollution from sour gas fields. The region has suffered crop reductions and chlorosis in grains, grasses, and legumes. Severe die-back and die-off of aspens and poplars has also been observed. Crops per colony were reduced by as much as 75 per cent, and winter losses more than tripled. Nectar flow patterns shifted from main flow in early summer to late flows in August or September from second growth alfalfa. A sampling of 27 fields found nitrogen fixation in alfalfa and red clovers lacking in areas downwind from major oil and sour gas flaring facilities. The reduction of the early season nectar flow appears to be caused by the synergistic interaction of ozone and sulphur compounds when ozone levels are at their highest. Reduced ozone levels in the fall permit a late, but uncertain flow from alfalfa plants

  15. Domino effect of pollution from sour gas fields : failing legume nodulation and the honey industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pirker, H.J. [Peace Country Agricultural Protection Association, AB (Canada)

    1998-10-01

    The sustainability of the honey industry in Alberta`s Peace Country has been threatened by pollution from sour gas fields. The region has suffered crop reductions and chlorosis in grains, grasses, and legumes. Severe die-back and die-off of aspens and poplars has also been observed. Crops per colony were reduced by as much as 75 per cent, and winter losses more than tripled. Nectar flow patterns shifted from main flow in early summer to late flows in August or September from second growth alfalfa. A sampling of 27 fields found nitrogen fixation in alfalfa and red clovers lacking in areas downwind from major oil and sour gas flaring facilities. The reduction of the early season nectar flow appears to be caused by the synergistic interaction of ozone and sulphur compounds when ozone levels are at their highest. Reduced ozone levels in the fall permit a late, but uncertain flow from alfalfa plants.

  16. Optimization of Sour Cherry Juice Spray Drying as
Affected by Carrier Material and Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorić, Zoran; Pedisić, Sandra; Dragović-Uzelac, Verica

    2016-01-01

    Summary Response surface methodology was applied for optimization of the sour cherry Marasca juice spray drying process with 20, 30 and 40% of carriers maltodextrin with dextrose equivalent (DE) value of 4–7 and 13–17 and gum arabic, at three drying temperatures: 150, 175 and 200 °C. Increase in carrier mass per volume ratio resulted in lower moisture content and powder hygroscopicity, higher bulk density, solubility and product yield. Higher temperatures decreased the moisture content and bulk density of powders. Temperature of 200 °C and 27% of maltodextrin with 4–7 DE were found to be the most suitable for production of sour cherry Marasca powder. PMID:28115901

  17. Supply, storage and handling of elemental sulfur derived from sour gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, P.D.; Davis, P.M.; Dowling, N.I.; Calgary Univ., AB

    2003-01-01

    This presentation reviews the supply picture for solid elemental sulfur. It also assesses methods for its storage as well as the disposal of the precursor hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) by acid gas injection. Both above and below ground block storage is considered environmentally acceptable for sulfur storage as long as measures are taken to minimize the physical and biological breakdown of the sulfur. The preferred option is to store solid elemental sulfur underground, particularly if it is to remain in storage for a prolonged period. Future changes in supply of sulfur will likely be controlled by incremental production of sour gas and utilization of oil sands bitumen. It is expected that future sulfur production from conventional crude oil will remain static or will slowly decrease. The degree to which acid gas injection is applied to large sour gas developments in the Middle East and the Caspian regions will have a significant impact on world sulfur supply. 9 refs., 1 tab., 5 figs

  18. Effects of a sour bolus on the intramuscular electromyographic (EMG) activity of muscles in the submental region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Phyllis M; McCulloch, Timothy M; Jaffe, Debra; Neel, Amy T

    2005-01-01

    A sour bolus has been used as a modality in the treatment of oropharyngeal dysphagia based on the hypothesis that this stimulus provides an effective preswallow sensory input that lowers the threshold required to trigger a pharyngeal swallow. The result is a more immediate swallow onset time. Additionally, the sour bolus may invigorate the oral muscles resulting in stronger contractions during the swallow. The purpose of this investigation was to compare the intramuscular electromyographic activity of the mylohyoid, geniohyoid, and anterior belly of the digastric muscles during sour and water boluses with regard to duration, strength, and timing of muscle activation. Muscle duration, swallow onset time, and pattern of muscle activation did not differ for the two bolus types. Muscle activation time was more tightly approximated across the onsets of the three muscles when a sour bolus was used. A sour bolus also resulted in a stronger muscle contraction as evidenced by greater electromyographic activity. These data support the use of a sour bolus as part of a treatment paradigm.

  19. Genetic Diversity Assessment and Identification of New Sour Cherry Genotypes Using Intersimple Sequence Repeat Markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roghayeh Najafzadeh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Iran is one of the chief origins of subgenus Cerasus germplasm. In this study, the genetic variation of new Iranian sour cherries (which had such superior growth characteristics and fruit quality as to be considered for the introduction of new cultivars was investigated and identified using 23 intersimple sequence repeat (ISSR markers. Results indicated a high level of polymorphism of the genotypes based on these markers. According to these results, primers tested in this study specially ISSR-4, ISSR-6, ISSR-13, ISSR-14, ISSR-16, and ISSR-19 produced good and various levels of amplifications which can be effectively used in genetic studies of the sour cherry. The genetic similarity among genotypes showed a high diversity among the genotypes. Cluster analysis separated improved cultivars from promising Iranian genotypes, and the PCoA supported the cluster analysis results. Since the Iranian genotypes were superior to the improved cultivars and were separated from them in most groups, these genotypes can be considered as distinct genotypes for further evaluations in the framework of breeding programs and new cultivar identification in cherries. Results also confirmed that ISSR is a reliable DNA marker that can be used for exact genetic studies and in sour cherry breeding programs.

  20. Sulphur recovery and sulphur emissions at Alberta sour gas plants : annual report for 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The sulphur recovery of Alberta's grandfathered sour gas plants is monitored by the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board. This report provides an annual summary of industry performance for sulphur recovery at large acid gas flaring sour gas plants, and sulphur recovery at all acid gas injection sour gas plants. It follows Interim Directive (ID) 2001-3 which stipulates guidelines for sulphur recovery for the province of Alberta. It includes a list of grandfathered and non grandfathered plants in Alberta. Grandfathered sulphur recovery plants that exceed expectations have the option to file a sulphur emission performance credit report and can use the credits to meet some of their sulphur requirement in the future. Acid gas flaring plants face more stringent requirements and cannot earn credits. Several plants have degrandfathered in the past 5 years. Eleven have made upgrades, 4 have been relicensed to meet the requirements for new plants, and 4 have shut down. Forty-one grandfathered plants remain. Sulphur emissions have decreased 39 per cent for grandfathered acid gas flaring plants, and 28 per cent for grandfathered sulphur recovery plants. 10 tabs., 3 figs

  1. Increasing of the processing capacity of an alkanoamine in aqueous solution mixed sour gas treatment unit; Incremento de la capacidad de procesamiento de una planta de tratamiento de gas amargo con mezclas de alcanolaminas en solucion acuosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernal, J. Manuel; Valtierra, Victor H.; Cabrales, Alberto [Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico City (Mexico)

    1998-07-01

    The necessity of increasing the process capacity of the existing sour gas treating units, has been a factor that has driven the investigation centers to develop new solvent formulations that could been capable of removing the sour gases without majors changes in the equipment that conforms those units. In this sense, the Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo has carried out the study in order to increase the processing capacity of a sour gas treatment plant of Petroleos Mexicanos. In this work, the use of solvents or alternative formulations, based on the use of methyl-diethanolamine (MDEA), as single solvent, or in mixture with others are considered. Our experimental data indicates that the use of MDEA in a formulation, in mixture with another amines, carry out to combination of attributes such as high absorption capacity and a high speed of absorption of the preferred acid gas (H{sub 2}S), besides it reduces the degradation index of the solvent and minimizes the equipment corrosion situation that is transformed in considerable improvement in the processing capacity and/or in the energy process savings, finally the operative problems are minimized. (author)

  2. Methodologies of Uncertainty Propagation Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chojnacki, Eric

    2002-01-01

    After recalling the theoretical principle and the practical difficulties of the methodologies of uncertainty propagation calculation, the author discussed how to propagate input uncertainties. He said there were two kinds of input uncertainty: - variability: uncertainty due to heterogeneity, - lack of knowledge: uncertainty due to ignorance. It was therefore necessary to use two different propagation methods. He demonstrated this in a simple example which he generalised, treating the variability uncertainty by the probability theory and the lack of knowledge uncertainty by the fuzzy theory. He cautioned, however, against the systematic use of probability theory which may lead to unjustifiable and illegitimate precise answers. Mr Chojnacki's conclusions were that the importance of distinguishing variability and lack of knowledge increased as the problem was getting more and more complex in terms of number of parameters or time steps, and that it was necessary to develop uncertainty propagation methodologies combining probability theory and fuzzy theory

  3. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  4. Errors, uncertainties and other problems associated with the interpretation of transgenerational epidemiological studies with special reference to postulated ionising radiation effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovak, A.J.M.

    2000-01-01

    The transgenerational effects debate of recent years can, in the light of current knowledge, be seen as a working example of the operation of a powerful range of errors, biases and confounders. These have often helped to obfuscate the issues addressed to the disbenefit of interested parties such as vicinity populations and workforces. The possibility of transgenerational effects has been entertained as a theoretical constant throughout the history of radiation science being given particular direction and focus by the work of Mueller in the 1920's. The absence of such effect in bomb survivors was therefore somewhat surprising to researchers even though this relative radio resistance was confirmed by later animal studies, such as by Russell and Selby. For emotive and situational reasons the renewed transgenerational debate of the last couple of decades has focused largely on childhood leukaemia, a very late, even remote-manifesting putative, transgenerational effect. This effect has now been demonstrated to be mainly due to confounding, most likely by population mixing, even in the sentinel study population of Seascale, near Sellafield. Little attention had been paid to the nature of the biological plausibility of putative transgenerational effects of ionizing radiation in terms of likelihood and closeness of fit. Thus there is a likelihood gradient of expected magnitude of effect which may be predicted to run from early to late manifesting defects. This would be expected to be high for pre-implantation loss and low for stillbirths or childhood cancer. Cited biological concordance also seldom takes regard of dose and dose rate. This is a particular problem because many epidemiological studies use more or less crude surrogate of dose such as monitored/never monitored or mechanical proportionalisation of annual dose summaries to shorter critical periods (such as spermatogenesis). In questionnaire studies, which are often regarded as inescapable in reproductive

  5. Risks, uncertainty, vagueness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.; Renn, O.; Erdmann, G.

    1990-01-01

    The notion of 'risk' is discussed in its social and technological contexts, leading to an investigation of the terms factuality, hypotheticality, uncertainty, and vagueness, and to the problems of acceptance and acceptability especially in the context of political decision finding. (DG) [de

  6. Case studies of the application of enhanced steel alloys for bottom hole assembly components for sour service conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chan, Alvaro [Nov Grant Prideco, Navasota (United States); Moura, Carlos [ASPEN Assesoria Tecnica e Comercial, Cascavel, PR (Brazil); Johnson, Charles; Landriault, Alain [Weatherford Canda Partnership, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    The new more modern drilling programs require the drill string to travel across sour formations in order to reach the hydrocarbon reservoirs. Traditional materials have been employed in the manufacture of HWDP components along with basic heat treatment processes. Standard HWDP tools have started to show their operational as well as environmental limitations when subjected to sour service applications. The advanced, more complex drilling programs require for the HWDP tools to be put in service under different configurations. Either at the bottom of the drill string near the drill bit for vertical well configurations or on top of the drill string for weight application on horizontal or extended reach applications. An operator in northwestern Canada has replaced standard HWDP with enhanced sour service HWDP in order to complete the programmed wells. These enhanced tools offer higher tensile and torque capabilities and improved toughness than standard HWDP tools and in addition, provide protection against sour service conditions. The use of second-generation double shoulder connections (2nd-Gen. DSC) has also provided added torque and tensile capacities to these versatile HWDP tools. For over a year more than a dozen wells have been drilled employing these enhanced BHA tools and have helped the operator reach its targets through sour service formations and produce wells in a safe and cost effective manner. (author)

  7. The influence of sour taste and cold temperature in pharyngeal transit duration in patients with stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Cristina Cola

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: The effect of sour taste and food temperature variations in dysphagic patients has not been entirely clarified. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of sour and cold food in the pharyngeal transit times of patients with stroke. METHODS: Patients participating in this study were 30 right-handed adults, 16 of which were male and 14 were female, aged 41 to 88 (average age 62.3 years with ictus varying from 1 to 30 days (median of 6 days. To analyze the pharyngeal transit time a videofluoroscopy swallow test was performed. Each patient was observed during swallow of a 5 mL paste bolus given by spoon, totaling four different stimuli (natural, cold, sour and cold sour, one at a time, room temperature (22ºC and cold (8ºC were used. Later, the tests were analyzed using specific software to measure bolus transit time during the pharyngeal phase. RESULTS: The results showed that the pharyngeal transit time was significantly shorter during swallow of cold sour bolus when compared with other stimuli. Conclusion - Sour taste stimuli associated to cold temperature cause significant change in swallowing patterns, by shortening the pharyngeal transit time, which may lead to positive effects in patients with oropharyngeal dysphagia.CONTEXTO: O efeito do sabor azedo e as variações da temperatura dos alimentos em indivíduos disfágicos, ainda não foi totalmente esclarecidos. OBJETIVO: Verificar o efeito do sabor azedo e da temperatura fria no tempo de trânsito faríngeo da deglutição em indivíduos após acidente vascular encefálico hemisférico isquêmico. MÉTODOS: Participaram deste estudo 30 indivíduos adultos, sendo 16 do gênero masculino e 14 do feminino, destros, com faixa etária variando de 41 a 88 anos (média de 62,3 anos e ictus que variou de 1 a 30 dias (mediana de 6 dias. Para analisar o tempo de trânsito faríngeo da deglutição foi realizado o exame de videofluoroscopia da deglutição. Cada indivíduo foi observado durante a

  8. Influence of ph on corrosion control of carbon steel by peroxide injection in sour water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vieira, Martins Magda; Baptista, Walmar; Joia, Carlos Jose Bandeira de Mello [PROTEMP - PETROBRAS/CENPES, Cidade Universitaria, Quadra 7, Rio de Janeiro, CEP 21949-900 (Brazil); Ponciano, Gomes Jose Antonio da Cunha [Departamento de Engenharia Metalurgica e de Materiais-COPPE/UFRJ, Cidade Universitaria, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    Sour hydrogen damage is considered the most important corrosive process in the light-ends recovery section of Fluid Catalytic Cracking Units (FCCU). Corrosion in this condition is due to heavy gas oil that originates great amount of contaminants, such as H{sub 2}S, NH{sub 3} and HCN. Hydrogen absorption is promoted by the presence of free cyanides in the environment. The attenuation of this process requires the use of some inhibitors, such as oxygen, hydrogen peroxide (H{sub 2}O{sub 2}) or commercial polysulfides. The effect of these compounds is to neutralize free cyanides (CN{sup -}) into thio-sulfides (SCN{sup -}). When peroxide injection is selected, cyanide concentration in sour water has been used as key parameter to start the peroxide introduction. However, the importance of pH in this system has been pointed out by many authors. The aim of this work is to investigate the influence of pH when peroxide injection is carried out in less alkaline conditions of sour water. Electrochemical techniques - like anodic polarization and hydrogen permeation tests - and weight loss measurements were used to evaluate the effectiveness of corrosion control of carbon steel. It was concluded that at pH 7.5 peroxide injection can drive to an increment of the corrosion rate. Besides that, it was concluded that hydrogen permeation into the metal is promoted. Both detrimental effects were due to elemental sulfur generation in this pH range. The adoption of pH as a key parameter for peroxide injection is then suggested. (authors)

  9. Development of a novel processing system for efficient sour water stripping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazemi, Abolghasem; Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Arjomand; Beheshti, Masoud

    2017-01-01

    Application of vapor recompression systems can result in enhanced energy efficiency and reduced energy requirements of distillation systems. In vapor recompression systems, temperature and dew point temperature of the top product of the column are increased through compression. By transferring heat from top to bottoms product, required boil up and reflux streams for the column are provided. In this paper, a new system is proposed for efficient stripping of sour water based on vapor recompression. Ammonia and H 2 S are the contaminants of sour water. Initially, based on a certain specifications of products, a sour water stripping system is implemented. A novel processing system is then developed and simulated to reduce utility requirements. The two processing systems are economically evaluated by Aspen Economic Evaluation software. There are 89.0% and 83.7% reduction of hot and cold utility requirements for the proposed system in comparison to the base processing system. However, the new processing system requires new equipment such as compressor and corresponding mechanical work that increases its capital and operating costs in comparison to the base case. However, the results indicate that the proposed system results in reduction of 11.4% of total annual costs and 14.9% of operating costs. - Highlights: • A novel system was developed for enhancement of performance of a distillation system based on vapor recompression. • In this system, utility streams are used for providing thermal energy. • A parametric study is carried out on the proposed processing system. • Applying the proposed system resulted in reduction of energy and utility requirements and costs of the separation process. • Environmental performance of the model was investigated.

  10. Degradation of Anthocyanin Content in Sour Cherry Juice During Heat Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilla Szalóki-Dorkó

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sour cherry juices made from two sour cherry cultivars (Érdi bőtermő and Kántorjánosi 3, were investigated to determine their total anthocyanin content and half-life of anthocyanins during heat treatment at different temperatures (70, 80 and 90 °C for 4 h. Before the heat treatment, Érdi bőtermő juice had higher anthocyanin concentration (812 mg/L than Kántorjánosi 3 juice (513 mg/L. The greatest heat sensitivity of anthocyanins was measured at 90 °C, while the treatments at 80 and 70 °C caused lower thermal degradation. The loss of anthocyanins in Érdi bőtermő juice after treatment was 38, 29 and 18 %, respectively, while in Kántorjánosi 3 juice losses of 46, 29 and 19 % were observed, respectively. At 90 °C sour cherry Érdi bőtermő juice had higher half-life (t1/2 of anthocyanins, while the Kántorjánosi 3 juice had higher t1/2 values at 70 °C. Cyanidin-3-glucosyl-rutinoside was present in higher concentrations in both cultivars (Érdi bőtermő: 348 and Kántorjánosi 3: 200 mg/L than cyanidin-3-rutinoside (177 and 121 mg/L before treatment. However, during the experiment, cyanidin-3-rutinoside was proved to be more resistant to heat. Comparing the two varieties, both investigated pigment compounds were more stable in Kántorjánosi 3 than in Érdi bőtermő. Degradation rate of anthocyanins was cultivar-dependent characteristic, which should be taken into account in the food production.

  11. Effective pollination period in "Oblačinska" sour cherry clones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fotirić-Akšić Milica

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To obtain high yields there should be high flower density and fruit set in sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L. production. Furthermore, in order to ensure successful fertilization, there should be satisfactory stigma receptivity, rapid pollen tube growth along the style, as well as adequate ovule longevity. This manuscript presents the study of the effective pollination period (EPP of four ‘Oblačinska’ sour cherry clones (II/2, III/9, XI/3 and XIII/1 that differs in pollen germination, fruit set and yields. In order to estimate EPP, pollination was conducted in six different stages of flower development: balloon stage, 2 d before anthesis (-2, at anthesis (0, and 2, 4, 6 and 8 d after anthеsis (DAA. The initial (IFS and final fruit set (FFS were recorded under the field conditions. Alongside with this, the rate of pollen tubes growth in the style was observed with fluorescent microscopy. The experimental design was completely randomized, a two-factorial analysis of variance was carried out and individual testing was performed using LSD test (p ≤ 0.05; p ≤ 0.01. The experiment was set in triplicates. Regarding FFS, clones II/2 and III/9 showed the best results (p ≤ 0.01 in 4 and 6 DAA. The number of pollen tubes in the style of the pistil decreased with subsequent terms of pollination, while its number in the ovule increased up to sixth day after pollination, followed by a decline. Clones II/2 and III/9 showed EPP which lasted from 6 to 8 d, while EPP found in clone XI/3, lasted only 2 d. It is concluded that only clone having long EPP should be used as parents for creating new sour cherry cultivars. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR 31063 and FP7 Project AREA 316004

  12. The effect of produced water reinjection on reservoir souring in the Statfjord field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoernestad, Eva Oe.; Sunde, Egil; Dinning, Anthony J.

    2006-03-15

    A produced water reinjection (PWRI) pilot test was performed in one well in the Statfjord field in the period 2000-2001. In order to establish the souring parameters and influence of PWRI in the near well area, the well was back flowed prior to PWRI, and at the end of the PWRI test period. Tracer was used for mass balance evaluations. After the PWRI pilot test was finished, the PWRI plant was upgraded at the Statfjord C platform and since 2003; two wells have been re injecting produced water. Nitrate has substituted biocides for corrosion control in the water injection system at the Statfjord B and Statfjord C platforms. Based on experience from other Statoil operated fields, nitrate will improve the corrosion control and in addition reduce the reservoir souring and hence the H2S production. In 2004, three wells were backflowed; a PWRI- injector, a seawater injector and a sea water injector with addition of nitrate. Results from the PWRI pilot test, showed that the sulphide production increased 17 times after PWRI in comparison with seawater injection. In the backflowing studies in 2004, water from the PWRI injector showed considerable higher H2S content (approximately 300 mg/l) than the well injecting only seawater (approximately 3-4 mg/l). The well injecting nitrate showed the lowest sulphide concentration in the backflowed fluids in comparison with the other wells (below 1 mg/l). This illustrates a significant increase in microbiological activity within the near injection area as a result of increased nutrient availability due to PWRI. The impact of PWRI in the lifetime of the Statfjord field has been evaluated and the PWRI strategy may be altered due to increases in souring. (Author)

  13. Investigations of corrosion films formed on API-X52 pipeline steel in acid sour media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez-Espejel, A. [Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Ed. 7, Zacatenco 07738, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Dominguez-Crespo, M.A. [Instituto Politecnico Nacional, CICATA-Unidad Altamira-Tamaulipas, km 14.5, Carretera Tampico-Puerto Industrial Altamira, 89600 Altamira, Tamps (Mexico); Cabrera-Sierra, R. [Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Departamento de Ingenieria Quimica Industrial, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Ed. 7, Zacatenco 07738, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Rodriguez-Meneses, C. [Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Ed. 7, Zacatenco 07738, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Arce-Estrada, E.M., E-mail: earce@ipn.m [Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Departamento de Ingenieria Metalurgica, IPN-ESIQIE, UPALM Ed. 7, Zacatenco 07738, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2010-07-15

    Corrosion films formed by voltammetry using different switching potentials and by immersion on API-X52 pipeline steel in simulated acid sour media (NACE ID182) have been characterized using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), X-ray Diffraction (XRD), Linear Polarization and Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) techniques. XRD and EDS analysis showed that the films are mainly composed of sulphide compounds (mackinawite, troilite, marcasite and pyrite) as well as iron oxides, as steel damage increases. Across SEM micrographs the corrosion films formed by potentiodynamic and immersion tests are very similar, covering most of the steel. Polarization and EIS results corroborate poor behavior against corrosion.

  14. SUBSTANTIATION OF STORAGE PARAMETERS OF THE SOUR-MILK INFANT DRINK «BIOLAKT»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Tkachenko

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Changes in the quality indicators of sour-milk infant drink «Biolakt» characterized by high probiotic and immunomodulatory properties and low allergic effect that were made according to the improved technology and stored in sealed-off containers at temperature (4±2 ºС during 28 days have been studied: organoleptic properties of taste and odour, consistency and appearance; physical and chemical properties – titrated acidity, ºТ; active acidity, pH units; moisture retention property, %; microbiological properties – number of living cells of mixed cultures B. bifidum 1 + B. longum Я3 + B. infantis 512, CFU/cm3; the most probable number of living cells of monocultures L. acidophilus La-5, CFU/cm3; presence of coli form bacteria in 0.3 cm3; presence of  Salmonella in 50 cm3; biochemical properties – antioxidant activity, activity units; and maximum possible content of malondialdehyde at complete oxidation of the product ingredients, mg/100 g. It is proved that under indicated conditions in the course of 24 days the studied samples of target products possess high organoleptic and standardized for sour-milk infant drinks physical, chemical, biochemical and microbiological indicators and are, also, characterized by high content of probiotics: (0.43…8.60∙109 and (0.25…1.10∙109 CFU/cm3 of living cells of bifidus bacteria and lactobacilli, accordingly.It has been established that the limit storage period of sour-milk infant drink «Biolakt» produced according to the improved technology and stored at temperature (4±2 ºС should not exceed 12 days with due account of the safety margin for sour-milk infant drinks (provided they are kept in sealed-off containers.It has been proved that the target product formulas should include lactulose, polyunsaturated fatty acids omega-3 FT EU of «Fortitech» company (Denmark, vitamin complex FT 041081EU of «Fortitech» company (Denmark and/or complex of mineral substances FT 042836EU of

  15. Investigations of corrosion films formed on API-X52 pipeline steel in acid sour media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez-Espejel, A.; Dominguez-Crespo, M.A.; Cabrera-Sierra, R.; Rodriguez-Meneses, C.; Arce-Estrada, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    Corrosion films formed by voltammetry using different switching potentials and by immersion on API-X52 pipeline steel in simulated acid sour media (NACE ID182) have been characterized using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), X-ray Diffraction (XRD), Linear Polarization and Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) techniques. XRD and EDS analysis showed that the films are mainly composed of sulphide compounds (mackinawite, troilite, marcasite and pyrite) as well as iron oxides, as steel damage increases. Across SEM micrographs the corrosion films formed by potentiodynamic and immersion tests are very similar, covering most of the steel. Polarization and EIS results corroborate poor behavior against corrosion.

  16. Teaching Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duerdoth, Ian

    2009-01-01

    The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

  17. Calibration uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration...

  18. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael

    2005-01-01

    As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

  19. Uncertainties in Nuclear Proliferation Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man-Sung; Park, Hyeon Seok

    2015-01-01

    There have been various efforts in the research community to understand the determinants of nuclear proliferation and develop quantitative tools to predict nuclear proliferation events. Such systematic approaches have shown the possibility to provide warning for the international community to prevent nuclear proliferation activities. However, there are still large debates for the robustness of the actual effect of determinants and projection results. Some studies have shown that several factors can cause uncertainties in previous quantitative nuclear proliferation modeling works. This paper analyzes the uncertainties in the past approaches and suggests future works in the view of proliferation history, analysis methods, and variable selection. The research community still lacks the knowledge for the source of uncertainty in current models. Fundamental problems in modeling will remain even other advanced modeling method is developed. Before starting to develop fancy model based on the time dependent proliferation determinants' hypothesis, using graph theory, etc., it is important to analyze the uncertainty of current model to solve the fundamental problems of nuclear proliferation modeling. The uncertainty from different proliferation history coding is small. Serious problems are from limited analysis methods and correlation among the variables. Problems in regression analysis and survival analysis cause huge uncertainties when using the same dataset, which decreases the robustness of the result. Inaccurate variables for nuclear proliferation also increase the uncertainty. To overcome these problems, further quantitative research should focus on analyzing the knowledge suggested on the qualitative nuclear proliferation studies

  20. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  1. New highly divergent Plum pox virus isolates infecting sour cherry in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirkov, Sergei; Ivanov, Peter; Sheveleva, Anna; Zakubanskiy, Alexander; Osipov, Gennady

    2017-02-01

    Unusual Plum pox virus (PPV) isolates (named Tat isolates) were discovered on sour cherry (Prunus cerasus) in Russia. They failed to be recognized by RT-PCR using commonly employed primers specific to the strains C or CR (the only ones that proved able to infect sour cherry) as well as to the strains M and W. Some of them can be detected by RT-PCR using the PPV-D-specific primers P1/PD or by TAS-ELISA with the PPV-C-specific monoclonal antibody AC. Phylogenetic analysis of the 3'-terminal genomic region assigned the Tat isolates into the cluster of cherry-adapted strains. However, they grouped separately from the C and CR strains and from each other as well. The sequence divergence of the Tat isolates is comparable to the differences between the known PPV strains. They may represent new group(s) of cherry-adapted isolates which do not seem to belong to any known strain of the virus. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  2. A Numerical Study of the Sour Gas Reforming in a Dielectric Barrier Discharge Reactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajedeh Shahsavari

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, using a one-dimensional simulation model, the reforming process of sour gas, i.e. CH4, CO2, and H2S, to the various charged particles and syngas in a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD reactor is studied. An electric field is applied across the reactor radius, and thus a non-thermal plasma discharge is formed within the reactor. Based on the space-time coupled finite element method, the governing equations are solved, and the temporal and spatial profiles of different formed charged species from sour gas inside the plasma reactor are verified. It is observed that the electric field increases radially towards the cathode electrode. Moreover, the electron density growth rate at the radial positions closer to the cathode surface is smaller than the one in the anode electrode region. Furthermore, as time progresses, the positive ions density near the anode electrode is higher. In addition, the produced syngas density is mainly concentrated in the proximity of anode dielectric electrode.

  3. Antimicrobial effect of sour pomegranate sauce on Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Staphylococcus aureus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kışla, Duygu; Karabıyıklı, Şeniz

    2013-05-01

    Pomegranate sauce is one of the most popular pomegranate products produced in Turkey. This study was conducted to determine the minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of both traditional and commercial sour pomegranate sauce samples on Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923) and Escherichia coli O157:H7 (ATCC 43895). The initial microflora of the pomegranate sauce samples was determined by performing the enumerations of total aerobic mesophilic bacteria, yeast and mold, S. aureus, E. coli, and the determination of Salmonella spp. MIC tests were applied to the neutralized and the original (unneutralized) sour pomegranate sauce samples in order to put forth the inhibition effect depending on low pH value. It was found that inhibitory effect of the traditional and the commercial samples, except one sample, on pathogens was not only due to the acidity of the products. The results of MIC tests indicated that although both traditional and commercial samples showed a considerable inhibitory effect on test microorganisms, the traditional pomegranate sauce samples were more effective than the commercial ones. © 2013 Institute of Food Technologists®

  4. Cross-Linkable Polyimide Membranes for Improved Plasticization Resistance and Permselectivity in Sour Gas Separations

    KAUST Repository

    Kraftschik, Brian

    2013-09-10

    A series of cross-linkable membrane materials based on the 6FDA-DAM:DABA (3:2) polyimide backbone were synthesized for improved sour gas separation performance, in terms of both membrane stability and permselectivity. Short-chain poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) molecules were used as cross-linking agents in an esterification-based cross-linking reaction. Pure and mixed gas permeation and pure gas sorption experiments were performed on dense films of these materials. Compared to unmodified 6FDA-DAM:DABA (3:2), higher sour gas permselectivity and membrane stability were achieved under aggressive feed conditions. H2S-induced plasticization was not evident until pure H2S feed pressures greater than approximately 6-8 bar. Pure CO 2-induced plasticization only occurred at feed pressures greater than about 25 bar. Under mixed gas feed conditions with 20% H2S, 20% CO2, and 60% CH4 at 35 C, attractive selectivities above 22 and 27 for H2S/CH4 and CO2/CH4, respectively, were observed for a feed pressure of 62 bar with both triethylene glycol and tetraethylene glycol cross-linking agents. © 2013 American Chemical Society.

  5. Inhibitory effect of sour pomegranate sauces on some green vegetables and kisir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabiyikli, Seniz; Kisla, Duygu

    2012-04-16

    In this study, the antimicrobial effects of both traditional and commercial pomegranate sour sauce samples on some green vegetables and also on "kısır" which is a popular and traditional appetizer in Turkey were investigated. The inhibitory effect of the pomegranate products on the naturally existing bacterial microflora of lettuce, spring onion, parsley and kısır were analyzed. Also, all these food samples were inoculated with Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC-25923) and Escherichia coli O157:H7 (ATCC-43895) and antimicrobial effect of the pomegranate products on the inoculated microflora was detected. All the food samples were treated with pomegranate products for different time periods and the effect of treatment time was investigated. pH and titratable acidity values of the traditional and commercial pomegranate sour sauce samples were detected. The results showed that although the pomegranate products had an antimicrobial effect on the natural bacterial microflora of the food samples, the effect on inoculated food samples was more prominent and additionally the application time was found to be a crucial parameter for both cases. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Effect of different levels of sugar on qualitative characteristics of lassi prepared from sour dahi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Shah Moazzem

    2018-08-01

    Full Text Available An investigation was carried out to develop lassi from sour dahi using different levels of sugar (10, 15, 20 and 25% and 15% water. Lassi quality was assayed through the study of physical, chemical and microbiological parameters. Results revealed that significant difference existed in overall physical score of lassi samples and the highest score was found in 15% sugar lassi whereas, the lowest score was found in 25% sugar lassi. Total solids, carbohydrate, fat, protein and ash contents differed significantly among various levels of sugar added lassi. From chemical test, it appears that, 15% sugar added lassi possess the highest fat and protein values whereas, the highest total solids and carbohydrate values posses in 25% sugar added lassi. No significant difference (p>0.05 revealed in terms of pH value and acidity percentage among lassi types. Lassi made from 10% sugar was most inferior than other levels of sugar added lassi in respect of microbiological quality- total viable count (×104 cfu/mL content was 95.67±2.08 and coliform (×10 cfu/mL content was 1.00±0.00. Considering above mentioned quality aspects, it might be resolved that lassi could be prepared successfully from sour dahi with 15% sugar keeping water level constant at 15%. [Fundam Appl Agric 2018; 3(2.000: 434-439

  7. Cross-Linkable Polyimide Membranes for Improved Plasticization Resistance and Permselectivity in Sour Gas Separations

    KAUST Repository

    Kraftschik, Brian; Koros, William J.

    2013-01-01

    A series of cross-linkable membrane materials based on the 6FDA-DAM:DABA (3:2) polyimide backbone were synthesized for improved sour gas separation performance, in terms of both membrane stability and permselectivity. Short-chain poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) molecules were used as cross-linking agents in an esterification-based cross-linking reaction. Pure and mixed gas permeation and pure gas sorption experiments were performed on dense films of these materials. Compared to unmodified 6FDA-DAM:DABA (3:2), higher sour gas permselectivity and membrane stability were achieved under aggressive feed conditions. H2S-induced plasticization was not evident until pure H2S feed pressures greater than approximately 6-8 bar. Pure CO 2-induced plasticization only occurred at feed pressures greater than about 25 bar. Under mixed gas feed conditions with 20% H2S, 20% CO2, and 60% CH4 at 35 C, attractive selectivities above 22 and 27 for H2S/CH4 and CO2/CH4, respectively, were observed for a feed pressure of 62 bar with both triethylene glycol and tetraethylene glycol cross-linking agents. © 2013 American Chemical Society.

  8. Terminal acidic shock inhibits sour beer bottle conditioning by Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Cody M; Veatch, Devon; Covey, Adam; Staton, Caleb; Bochman, Matthew L

    2016-08-01

    During beer fermentation, the brewer's yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae experiences a variety of shifting growth conditions, culminating in a low-oxygen, low-nutrient, high-ethanol, acidic environment. In beers that are bottle conditioned (i.e., carbonated in the bottle by supplying yeast with a small amount of sugar to metabolize into CO2), the S. cerevisiae cells must overcome these stressors to perform the ultimate act in beer production. However, medium shock caused by any of these variables can slow, stall, or even kill the yeast, resulting in production delays and economic losses. Here, we describe a medium shock caused by high lactic acid levels in an American sour beer, which we refer to as "terminal acidic shock". Yeast exposed to this shock failed to bottle condition the beer, though they remained viable. The effects of low pH/high [lactic acid] conditions on the growth of six different brewing strains of S. cerevisiae were characterized, and we developed a method to adapt the yeast to growth in acidic beer, enabling proper bottle conditioning. Our findings will aid in the production of sour-style beers, a trending category in the American craft beer scene. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Effects of nitrate injection on microbial enhanced oil recovery and oilfield reservoir souring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Marcio Luis Busi; Soares, Hugo Moreira; Furigo, Agenor; Schmidell, Willibaldo; Corseuil, Henry Xavier

    2014-11-01

    Column experiments were utilized to investigate the effects of nitrate injection on sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) inhibition and microbial enhanced oil recovery (MEOR). An indigenous microbial consortium collected from the produced water of a Brazilian offshore field was used as inoculum. The presence of 150 mg/L volatile fatty acids (VFA´s) in the injection water contributed to a high biological electron acceptors demand and the establishment of anaerobic sulfate-reducing conditions. Continuous injection of nitrate (up to 25 mg/L) for 90 days did not inhibit souring. Contrariwise, in nitrogen-limiting conditions, the addition of nitrate stimulated the proliferation of δ-Proteobacteria (including SRB) and the associated sulfide concentration. Denitrification-specific nirK or nirS genes were not detected. A sharp decrease in water interfacial tension (from 20.8 to 14.5 mN/m) observed concomitantly with nitrate consumption and increased oil recovery (4.3 % v/v) demonstrated the benefits of nitrate injection on MEOR. Overall, the results support the notion that the addition of nitrate, at this particular oil reservoir, can benefit MEOR by stimulating the proliferation of fortuitous biosurfactant-producing bacteria. Higher nitrate concentrations exceeding the stoichiometric volatile fatty acid (VFA) biodegradation demands and/or the use of alternative biogenic souring control strategies may be necessary to warrant effective SRB inhibition down gradient from the injection wells.

  10. Presynaptic (Type III) cells in mouse taste buds sense sour (acid) taste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yijen A; Maruyama, Yutaka; Stimac, Robert; Roper, Stephen D

    2008-06-15

    Taste buds contain two types of cells that directly participate in taste transduction - receptor (Type II) cells and presynaptic (Type III) cells. Receptor cells respond to sweet, bitter and umami taste stimulation but until recently the identity of cells that respond directly to sour (acid) tastants has only been inferred from recordings in situ, from behavioural studies, and from immunostaining for putative sour transduction molecules. Using calcium imaging on single isolated taste cells and with biosensor cells to identify neurotransmitter release, we show that presynaptic (Type III) cells specifically respond to acid taste stimulation and release serotonin. By recording responses in cells isolated from taste buds and in taste cells in lingual slices to acetic acid titrated to different acid levels (pH), we also show that the active stimulus for acid taste is the membrane-permeant, uncharged acetic acid moiety (CH(3)COOH), not free protons (H(+)). That observation is consistent with the proximate stimulus for acid taste being intracellular acidification, not extracellular protons per se. These findings may also have implications for other sensory receptors that respond to acids, such as nociceptors.

  11. Quality of sour cherry juice of different clones and cultivars (Prunus cerasus L.) determined by a combined sensory and NMR spectroscopic approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Morten Rahr; Pedersen, Bjarne Hjelmsted; Bertram, Hanne Christine S.

    2011-01-01

    Juice was manufactured from seven different sour cherry clones/cultivars and evaluated by quantitative descriptive sensory analysis and 1H NMR spectroscopy. The sensory evaluation showed a large variation in several sensory attributes between the sour cherry clones/cultivars, which could be divided...... into two groups on the basis of both the sensory data and the NMR spectroscopic data. These groups were closely related to the genetic background of the clones. Kelleris clones were distinctly different from Stevnsberry and Fanal clones. Hence, 1H NMR spectroscopic data seem to correlate with sensory...... quality of different sour cherry clones. In addition, malic acid was the most important metabolite for modeling the two highly correlated sensory attributes sweetness and sourness, whereas the glucose content had a slight effect and the fructose content had no impact on sweetness/sourness. Other...

  12. A new uncertainty importance measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.

    2007-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameters is present in many risk assessment problems and leads to uncertainty in model predictions. In this work, we introduce a global sensitivity indicator which looks at the influence of input uncertainty on the entire output distribution without reference to a specific moment of the output (moment independence) and which can be defined also in the presence of correlations among the parameters. We discuss its mathematical properties and highlight the differences between the present indicator, variance-based uncertainty importance measures and a moment independent sensitivity indicator previously introduced in the literature. Numerical results are discussed with application to the probabilistic risk assessment model on which Iman [A matrix-based approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for fault trees. Risk Anal 1987;7(1):22-33] first introduced uncertainty importance measures

  13. Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

    2016-01-01

    Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

  14. Uncertainty, probability and information-gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses two main ideas. First, we focus on info-gap uncertainty, as distinct from probability. Info-gap theory is especially suited for modelling and managing uncertainty in system models: we invest all our knowledge in formulating the best possible model; this leaves the modeller with very faulty and fragmentary information about the variation of reality around that optimal model. Second, we examine the interdependence between uncertainty modelling and decision-making. Good uncertainty modelling requires contact with the end-use, namely, with the decision-making application of the uncertainty model. The most important avenue of uncertainty-propagation is from initial data- and model-uncertainties into uncertainty in the decision-domain. Two questions arise. Is the decision robust to the initial uncertainties? Is the decision prone to opportune windfall success? We apply info-gap robustness and opportunity functions to the analysis of representation and propagation of uncertainty in several of the Sandia Challenge Problems

  15. Photometric Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiao-Duan; Li, Jian-Yang; Clark, Beth Ellen; Golish, Dathon

    2018-01-01

    The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, launched in September, 2016, will study the asteroid Bennu and return a sample from its surface to Earth in 2023. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. OSIRIS-REx will first approach Bennu in August 2018 and will study the asteroid for approximately two years before sampling. OSIRIS-REx will develop its photometric model (including Lommel-Seelinger, ROLO, McEwen, Minnaert and Akimov) of Bennu with OCAM and OVIRS during the Detailed Survey mission phase. The model developed during this phase will be used to photometrically correct the OCAM and OVIRS data.Here we present the analysis of the error for the photometric corrections. Based on our testing data sets, we find:1. The model uncertainties is only correct when we use the covariance matrix to calculate, because the parameters are highly correlated.2. No evidence of domination of any parameter in each model.3. And both model error and the data error contribute to the final correction error comparably.4. We tested the uncertainty module on fake and real data sets, and find that model performance depends on the data coverage and data quality. These tests gave us a better understanding of how different model behave in different case.5. L-S model is more reliable than others. Maybe because the simulated data are based on L-S model. However, the test on real data (SPDIF) does show slight advantage of L-S, too. ROLO is not reliable to use when calculating bond albedo. The uncertainty of McEwen model is big in most cases. Akimov performs unphysical on SOPIE 1 data.6. Better use L-S as our default choice, this conclusion is based mainly on our test on SOPIE data and IPDIF.

  16. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Shachter, RD; Henrion, M; Lemmer, JF

    1990-01-01

    This volume, like its predecessors, reflects the cutting edge of research on the automation of reasoning under uncertainty.A more pragmatic emphasis is evident, for although some papers address fundamental issues, the majority address practical issues. Topics include the relations between alternative formalisms (including possibilistic reasoning), Dempster-Shafer belief functions, non-monotonic reasoning, Bayesian and decision theoretic schemes, and new inference techniques for belief nets. New techniques are applied to important problems in medicine, vision, robotics, and natural language und

  17. Economic uncertainty principle?

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander Harin

    2006-01-01

    The economic principle of (hidden) uncertainty is presented. New probability formulas are offered. Examples of solutions of three types of fundamental problems are reviewed.; Principe d'incertitude économique? Le principe économique d'incertitude (cachée) est présenté. De nouvelles formules de chances sont offertes. Les exemples de solutions des trois types de problèmes fondamentaux sont reconsidérés.

  18. Formation and Control of Sulfur Oxides in Sour Gas Oxy-Combustion: Prediction Using a Reactor Network Model

    KAUST Repository

    Bongartz, Dominik; Shanbhogue, Santosh J.; Ghoniem, Ahmed F.

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 American Chemical Society. Sour natural gas currently requires expensive gas cleanup before it can be used in power generation because it contains large amounts of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and carbon dioxide (CO2) that entail a low heating

  19. A Multistage Fluidized Bed for the Deep Removal of Sour Gases : Proof of Concept and Tray Efficiencies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, Rick T.; Bos, Martin J.; Brilman, Derk W. F.

    2018-01-01

    Currently there are significant amounts of natural gas that cannot be produced and treated to meet pipeline specifications, because that would not be economically viable. This work investigates a bench scale multistage fluidized bed (MSFB) with shallow beds for sour gas removal from natural gas

  20. Inhibitory effect of cyanide on wastewater nitrification determined using SOUR and RNA-based gene-specific assays

    Science.gov (United States)

    The effect of CN- (CN-) on nitrification was examined with samples from nitrifying wastewater enrichments using two different approaches: by measuring substrate (ammonia) specific oxygen uptake rates (SOUR), and by using RT-qPCR to quantify the transcripts of functional genes inv...

  1. Microsatellite marker development by partial sequencing of the sour passion fruit genome (Passiflora edulis Sims).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araya, Susan; Martins, Alexandre M; Junqueira, Nilton T V; Costa, Ana Maria; Faleiro, Fábio G; Ferreira, Márcio E

    2017-07-21

    The Passiflora genus comprises hundreds of wild and cultivated species of passion fruit used for food, industrial, ornamental and medicinal purposes. Efforts to develop genomic tools for genetic analysis of P. edulis, the most important commercial Passiflora species, are still incipient. In spite of many recognized applications of microsatellite markers in genetics and breeding, their availability for passion fruit research remains restricted. Microsatellite markers in P. edulis are usually limited in number, show reduced polymorphism, and are mostly based on compound or imperfect repeats. Furthermore, they are confined to only a few Passiflora species. We describe the use of NGS technology to partially assemble the P. edulis genome in order to develop hundreds of new microsatellite markers. A total of 14.11 Gbp of Illumina paired-end sequence reads were analyzed to detect simple sequence repeat sites in the sour passion fruit genome. A sample of 1300 contigs containing perfect repeat microsatellite sequences was selected for PCR primer development. Panels of di- and tri-nucleotide repeat markers were then tested in P. edulis germplasm accessions for validation. DNA polymorphism was detected in 74% of the markers (PIC = 0.16 to 0.77; number of alleles/locus = 2 to 7). A core panel of highly polymorphic markers (PIC = 0.46 to 0.77) was used to cross-amplify PCR products in 79 species of Passiflora (including P. edulis), belonging to four subgenera (Astrophea, Decaloba, Distephana and Passiflora). Approximately 71% of the marker/species combinations resulted in positive amplicons in all species tested. DNA polymorphism was detected in germplasm accessions of six closely related Passiflora species (P. edulis, P. alata, P. maliformis, P. nitida, P. quadrangularis and P. setacea) and the data used for accession discrimination and species assignment. A database of P. edulis DNA sequences obtained by NGS technology was examined to identify microsatellite repeats in

  2. SOUR CHERRY (Prunus cerasus L. GENETIC VARIABILITY AND PHOTOSYNTHETIC EFFICIENCY DURING DROUGHT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marija Viljevac

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Sour cherry is an important fruit in Croatian orchards. Cultivar Oblačinska is predominant in existing orchards with noted intracultivar phenotypic heterogeneity. In this study, the genetic variability of 22 genotypes of cvs. Oblačinska, Maraska and Cigančica, as well as standard cvs. Kelleris 14, Kelleris 16, Kereška, Rexelle and Heimann conserved were investigated. Two types of molecular markers were used: microsatellite markers (SSR in order to identify intercultivar, and AFLP in order to identify intracultivar variabilities. A set of 12 SSR markers revealed small genetic distance between cvs. Maraska and Oblačinska while cv. Cigančica is affined to cv. Oblačinska. Furthermore, cvs. Oblačinska, Cigančica and Maraska were characterized compared to standard ones. AFLP markers didn`t confirm significant intracultivar variability of cv. Oblačinska although the variability has been approved at the morphological, chemical and pomological level. Significant corelation between SSR and AFLP markers was found. Identification of sour cherry cultivars tolerant to drought will enable the sustainability of fruit production with respect to the climate change in the future. For this purpose, the tolerance of seven sour cherry genotypes (cvs. Kelleris 16, Maraska, Cigančica and Oblačinska represented by 4 genotypes: OS, 18, D6 and BOR to drought conditions was tested in order to isolate genotypes with the desired properties. In the greenhouse experiment, cherry plants were exposed to drought stress. The leaf relative water content, OJIP test parameters which specify efficiency of the photosynthetic system based on measurements of chlorophyll a fluorescence, and concentrations of photo-synthetic pigments during the experiment were measured as markers of drought tolerance. Photosynthetic performance index (PIABS comprises three key events in the reaction centre of photosystem II affecting the photosynthetic activity: the absorption of energy

  3. Mathematical Analysis of Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angel GARRIDO

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Classical Logic showed early its insufficiencies for solving AI problems. The introduction of Fuzzy Logic aims at this problem. There have been research in the conventional Rough direction alone or in the Fuzzy direction alone, and more recently, attempts to combine both into Fuzzy Rough Sets or Rough Fuzzy Sets. We analyse some new and powerful tools in the study of Uncertainty, as the Probabilistic Graphical Models, Chain Graphs, Bayesian Networks, and Markov Networks, integrating our knowledge of graphs and probability.

  4. Effects of aqueous extracts of dried calyx of sour tea (Hibiscus sabdariffa L. on polygenic dyslipidemia: A randomized clinical trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Hajifaraji

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Dyslipidemia has been considered as a major risk factor for coronary heart disease. Alternative medicine has a significant role in treatment of dyslipidemia. There are controversial findings regarding the effects of sour tea on dyslipidemia. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of aqueous extract of dried calyx of sour tea on polygenic dyslipidemia. Materials and Methods: This clinical trial was done on 43 adults (30-60 years old with polygenic dyslipidemia that were randomly assigned to the intervention and control groups. The control group was trained in lifestyle modifications at baseline. The intervention group was trained for lifestyle modifications at baseline and received two cups of sour tea daily, and both groups were followed up for 12 weeks. Lipid profile was evaluated at baseline, and six and 12 weeks following the intervention. In addition, dietary and physical activity assessed at baseline for twelve weeks. Results: Mean concentration of total cholesterol, HDL-C and LDL-C significantly decreased by up to 9.46%, 8.33%, and 9.80%, respectively, after 12 weeks in the intervention group in comparison to their baseline values. However, LDL-C/HDL-C ratio significantly increased  by up to 3.15%, following 12 weeks in the control group in comparison to their baseline values. This study showed no difference in lipid profiles between the two groups, except for HDL-C concentrations. Conclusion: sour tea may have significant positive effects on lipid profile of polygenic dyslipidemia subjects and these effect might be attributed to its anthocyanins and inflation factor content. Therefore, sour tea intake with recommended dietary patterns and physical activity can be useful in regulation of lipid profile in patients with polygenic dyslipidemia.

  5. Radical scavenging activities of Rio Red grapefruits and Sour orange fruit extracts in different in vitro model systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayaprakasha, G K; Girennavar, Basavaraj; Patil, Bhimanagouda S

    2008-07-01

    Antioxidant fractions from two different citrus species such as Rio Red (Citrus paradise Macf.) and Sour orange (Citrus aurantium L.) were extracted with five different polar solvents using Soxhlet type extractor. The total phenolic content of the extracts was determined by Folin-Ciocalteu method. Ethyl acetate extract of Rio Red and Sour orange was found to contain maximum phenolics. The dried fractions were screened for their antioxidant activity potential using in vitro model systems such as 1,1-diphenyl-2-picryl hydrazyl (DPPH), phosphomolybdenum method and nitroblue tetrazolium (NBT) reduction at different concentrations. The methanol:water (80:20) fraction of Rio Red showed the highest radical scavenging activity 42.5%, 77.8% and 92.1% at 250, 500 and 1000 ppm, respectively, while methanol:water (80:20) fraction of Sour orange showed the lowest radical scavenging activity at all the tested concentrations. All citrus fractions showed good antioxidant capacity by the formation of phosphomolybdenum complex at 200 ppm. In addition, superoxide radical scavenging activity was assayed using non-enzymatic (NADH/phenaxine methosulfate) superoxide generating system. All the extracts showed variable superoxide radical scavenging activity. Moreover, methanol:water (80:20) extract of Rio Red and methanol extract of Sour orange exhibited marked reducing power in potassium ferricyanide reduction method. The data obtained using above in vitro models clearly establish the antioxidant potential of citrus fruit extracts. However, comprehensive studies need to be conducted to ascertain the in vivo bioavailability, safety and efficacy of such extracts in experimental animals. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on antioxidant activity of different polar extracts from Rio Red and Sour oranges.

  6. Evaluation of the glycoside hydrolase activity of a Brettanomyces strain on glycosides from sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L.) used in the production of special fruit beers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daenen, Luk; Sterckx, Femke; Delvaux, Freddy R; Verachtert, Hubert; Derdelinckx, Guy

    2008-11-01

    The glycoside hydrolase activity of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Brettanomyces custersii was examined on sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L.) glycosides with bound volatile compounds. Refermentations by the beta-glucosidase-negative S. cerevisiae strains LD25 and LD40 of sour cherry juice-supplemented beer demonstrated only a moderate increase of volatiles. In contrast, the beta-glucosidase-positive B. custersii strain LD72 showed a more pronounced activity towards glycosides with aliphatic alcohols, aromatic compounds and terpenoid alcohols. Important contributors to sour cherry aroma such as benzaldehyde, linalool and eugenol were released during refermentation as shown by analytical tools. A gradually increasing release was observed during refermentations by B. custersii when whole sour cherries, sour cherry pulp or juice were supplemented in the beer. Refermentations with whole sour cherries and with sour cherry stones demonstrated an increased formation of benzyl compounds. Thus, amygdalin was partially hydrolysed, and a large part of the benzaldehyde formed was mainly reduced to benzyl alcohol and some further esterified to benzyl acetate. These findings demonstrate the importance and interesting role of certain Brettanomyces species in the production of fruit lambic beers such as 'Kriek'.

  7. Detection and partial molecular characterization of atypical plum pox virus isolates from naturally infected sour cherry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirkov, Sergei; Ivanov, Peter; Sheveleva, Anna

    2013-06-01

    Atypical isolates of plum pox virus (PPV) were discovered in naturally infected sour cherry in urban ornamental plantings in Moscow, Russia. The isolates were detected by polyclonal double antibody sandwich ELISA and RT-PCR using universal primers specific for the 3'-non-coding and coat protein (CP) regions of the genome but failed to be recognized by triple antibody sandwich ELISA with the universal monoclonal antibody 5B and by RT-PCR using primers specific to for PPV strains D, M, C and W. Sequence analysis of the CP genes of nine isolates revealed 99.2-100 % within-group identity and 62-85 % identity to conventional PPV strains. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the atypical isolates represent a group that is distinct from the known PPV strains. Alignment of the N-terminal amino acid sequences of CP demonstrated their close similarity to those of a new tentative PPV strain, CR.

  8. Effect of Fermentation and Cooking on Soluble and Bound Phenolic Profiles of Finger Millet Sour Porridge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabaza, Molly; Shumoy, Habtu; Muchuweti, Maud; Vandamme, Peter; Raes, Katleen

    2016-10-12

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the soluble and bound phenolic content of finger millet and the impact of process induced changes on phenolic profiles of their sour porridge. Finger millet porridge and intermediate products were collected from four groups of households in the Hwedza communal area, Zimbabwe, after which soluble and bound phenolic compounds (PC) including condensed tannins (CT) were quantified. Bound PC and CT contributed 95% of the total PC and CT. The CT were only detected in the red varieties. Major individual PC identified were catechin occurring in the soluble fraction only, while ferulic, sinapic, and salicylic acid were mainly present in the bound fraction. Fermentation and cooking caused a more than 2-fold increase in soluble PC, CT, and individual PC. Improved traditional processing techniques optimized for improved bioavailability and health benefits of phenolics are highly relevant for the low income populations.

  9. Technique of optimum extraction of pectin from sour orange peels and its chemical evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abid, H.; Hussain, A.; Ali, J.

    2009-01-01

    The extraction of pectin from sour orange peels and effect of pH, temperature, extraction time on the yield and quality of pectin was studied. The extracting reagent was 0.1 N sulphuric acid and variables were pH (1.5, 2.5 and 3.5), extraction time (30, 60 and 120 minutes) and temperature (70 degree C, 80 degree C arid 90 degree C). These variables were significantly affected the extraction of pectin. The best yield (16.10 %) was obtained on soaking the finely ground peels in the sulphuric acid solution of pH, 25 at 80 degree C for 120 minutes. Anhydrogalacturonic acid, methoxyl content were 7310 % and 9.93 %, respectively, while equivalent weight value 945 was obtained by using pH, 2.5 at 80 degree C for 120 minutes. (author)

  10. Control of degreening in postharvest green sour citrus fruit by electrostatic atomized water particles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamauchi, Naoki; Takamura, Kohtaro; Shigyo, Masayoshi; Migita, Catharina Taiko; Masuda, Yukihiro; Maekawa, Tetsuya

    2014-08-01

    The effect of electrostatic atomized water particles (EAWP) on degreening of green sour citrus fruit during storage was determined. Superoxide anion and hydroxyl radicals included in EAWP were present on the surface of the fruit peel after the treatment. Hydrogen peroxide was formed from EAWP in an aqueous solution, which could indicate that a hydroxyl radical of EAWP turns to hydrogen peroxide in the fruit flavedo as well as in the aqueous solution. EAWP treatment effectively suppressed the degreening of green yuzu and Nagato-yuzukichi fruits during storage at 20°C. The enhancement in K+ ion leakage of both EAWP-treated fruits reduced in comparison with the control. In spite of EAWP treatment, total peroxide level in both fruits showed almost no changes during storage, suggesting that hydrogen peroxide formed by EAWP treatment could stimulate the activation of hydrogen peroxide scavenging system and control degreening of these fruits during storage. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. REPEATED MEASURES ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN PHOTOSYNTHETIC EFFICIENCY IN SOUR CHERRY DURING WATER DEFICIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marija Viljevac

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to investigate changes in photosynthetic efficiency applying repeated measures ANOVA using the photosynthetic performance index (PIABS of the JIP-test as a vitality parameter in seven genotypes of sour cherry (Prunus cerasus, L. during 10 days of continuous water deficit. Both univariate and multivariate ANOVA repeated measures revealed highly significant time effect (Days and its subsequent interactions with genotype and water deficit. However, the multivariate Pillai’s trace test detected the interaction Time × Genotype × Water deficit as not significant. According to the Tukey’s Studentized Range (HSD test, differences between the control and genotypes exposed to water stress became significant on the fourth day of the experiment, indicating that the plants on the average, began to lose their photosynthetic efficiency four days after being exposed to water shortage. It corroborates previous findings in other species that PIABS is very sensitive tool for detecting drought stress.

  12. Study on fracture and stress corrosion cracking behavior of casing sour service materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sequera, C.; Gordon, H.

    2003-01-01

    Present work describes sulphide stress corrosion cracking and fracture toughness tests performed to high strength sour service materials of T-95, C-100 and C-110 oil well tubular grades. P-110 was considered as a reference case, since it is one of the high strength materials included in specification 5CT of American Petroleum Institute, API. Sulphide stress corrosion cracking, impact and fracture toughness values obtained in the tests show that there is a correspondence among them. A decreasing classification order was established, namely C-100, T-95, C-110 and P-110. Special grades steels studied demonstrated a better behavior in the evaluated properties than the reference case material grade: P-110. Results obtained indicate that a higher sulphide stress corrosion cracking resistance is related to a higher toughness. The fracture toughness results evidence the hydrogen influence on reducing the toughness values. (author)

  13. Stress corrosion cracking resistance of 22% Cr duplex stainless steel in simulated sour environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kudo, T.; Tsuge, H.; Moroishi, T.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports the effect of nickel and nitrogen contents on stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of 22%Cr - 3%Mo-base duplex stainless steel investigated in simulated sour environments with respect to both the base metal and the heat-affected zone (HAZ) of welding. The threshold stress and the critical chloride concentration for SCC were evaluated as a function of the ferrite content (α-content) in the alloy. The threshold stress is highest at the α-content of 40 to 45%, and is lowered with decreasing and increasing the α-content from its value. The alloy whose α-content exceeds 80% at the HAZ has also high susceptibilities to pitting corrosion and intergranular corrosion (ICG). The critical chloride concentration for cracking increases with the decrease in the α-content. Moreover, the contents of chromium, nickel and molybdenum in the α-phase are considered to be an important factor for determining the critical chloride concentration

  14. [Health effects of sour cherries with unique polyphenolic composition in their fruits].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegedűs, Attila; Papp, Nóra; Blázovics, Anna; Stefanovitsné Bányai, Éva

    2018-05-01

    Health effects of fruit consumption are confirmed by many studies. Such effects are attributed to the polyphenolic compounds accumulating in fruit skin and mesocarp tissues. They contribute to the regulation on transcriptional, post-transcriptional and epigenetic levels. Since people consume much less fruits than the recommended quantities, a new approach includes the promotion of super fruits that are extremely rich sources of specific health compounds. A comparative analysis of Hungarian stone fruit cultivars detected a huge variability in fruit in vitro antioxidant capacity and total polyphenolic content. Two outstanding sour cherry cultivars ('Pipacs 1' and 'Fanal') were identified to accumulate elevated levels of polyphenolic compounds in their fruits. Sour cherries with different polyphenolic compositions were tested against alimentary induced hyperlipidemia using male Wistar rat model. Consumption of cherry fruit had different consequences for different cultivars: consumption of 'Pipacs 1' and 'Fanal' fruits resulted in 30% lower total cholesterol levels in the sera of hyperlipidemic animals after only 10 days of treatment. However, the consumption of 'Újfehértói fürtös' fruit has not induced significant alterations in the same parameter. Other lipid parameters also reflected the short-term beneficial effects of 'Pipacs 1' and 'Fanal' fruits. We suggest that not only some tropical and berry fruits might be considered as super fruits but certain genotypes of stone fruits as well. These have indeed marked physiological effects. Since 'Pipacs 1' and 'Fanal' are rich sources of colourless polyphenolics (e.g., phenolic acids and isoflavonoids) and anthocyanins, respectively, the protective effects associated with their consumption can be attributed to different polyphenolic compounds. Orv Hetil. 2018; 159(18): 720-725.

  15. Effect of the improved fermentation on physicochemical properties and sensorial acceptability of sour cassava starch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Janete Angeloni Marcon

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work was to study the effect of improved fermentation on sour cassava starch, aiming to reduce its fermentation time and to enhance its expansion capacity as well as its viscoamylographic properties and its sensorial acceptability. Results showed that the improved process of cassava starch production did not harm starch expansion, physicochemical properties or sensorial acceptability; it also produced starches with different viscoamylographic properties, which compared favourably to those of the sour cassava starch produced through current industrial methods.O Polvilho azedo é caracterizado pelas suas propriedades físicas, químicas e reológicas, as quais são diferentes do amido nativo do qual se originou. A propriedade de expansão é uma das mais importantes características do produto, sendo um parâmetro fundamental de avaliação do polvilho azedo. O resultado do perfil viscoamilográfico também é uma importante maneira de avaliação uma vez que cada amido tem um padrão viscoamilográfico definido de acordo com sua organização granular. Este trabalho determinou o efeito da fermentação melhorada pela adição de glicose, sobre o polvilho azedo, apontando para uma redução no tempo de fermentação e avaliando sua capacidade de expansão, suas propriedades viscoamilográficas e aceitabilidade sensorial. O processo de produção de polvilho azedo melhorado não prejudicou a expansão do amido, suas propriedades físico-químicas e sensoriais, mas sim resultou em amidos com diferentes propriedades viscoamilográficas melhores comparativamente ao polvilho azedo produzido pelo processo industrial atual.

  16. Uncertainty and its propagation in dynamics models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devooght, J.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to bring together some characteristics due to uncertainty when we deal with dynamic models and therefore to propagation of uncertainty. The respective role of uncertainty and inaccuracy is examined. A mathematical formalism based on Chapman-Kolmogorov equation allows to define a open-quotes subdynamicsclose quotes where the evolution equation takes the uncertainty into account. The problem of choosing or combining models is examined through a loss function associated to a decision

  17. Calibration Under Uncertainty.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2005-03-01

    This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.

  18. Notes for a workshop on risk analysis and decision under uncertainty. The practical use of probabilistic and Bayesian methodology inreal life risk assessment and decision problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-01

    The use of probabilistic, and especially Bayesian, methods is explained. The concepts of risk and decision, and probability and frequency are elucidated. The mechanics of probability and probabilistic calculations is discussed. The use of the method for particular problems, such as the frequency of aircraft crashes at a specified nuclear reactor site, is illustrated. 64 figures, 20 tables. (RWR)

  19. Notes for a workshop on risk analysis and decision under uncertainty. The practical use of probabilistic and Bayesian methodology inreal life risk assessment and decision problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    The use of probabilistic, and especially Bayesian, methods is explained. The concepts of risk and decision, and probability and frequency are elucidated. The mechanics of probability and probabilistic calculations is discussed. The use of the method for particular problems, such as the frequency of aircraft crashes at a specified nuclear reactor site, is illustrated. 64 figures, 20 tables

  20. Collaborative Project: The problem of bias in defining uncertainty in computationally enabled strategies for data-driven climate model development. Final Technical Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huerta, Gabriel [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-05-10

    The objective of the project is to develop strategies for better representing scientific sensibilities within statistical measures of model skill that then can be used within a Bayesian statistical framework for data-driven climate model development and improved measures of model scientific uncertainty. One of the thorny issues in model evaluation is quantifying the effect of biases on climate projections. While any bias is not desirable, only those biases that affect feedbacks affect scatter in climate projections. The effort at the University of Texas is to analyze previously calculated ensembles of CAM3.1 with perturbed parameters to discover how biases affect projections of global warming. The hypothesis is that compensating errors in the control model can be identified by their effect on a combination of processes and that developing metrics that are sensitive to dependencies among state variables would provide a way to select version of climate models that may reduce scatter in climate projections. Gabriel Huerta at the University of New Mexico is responsible for developing statistical methods for evaluating these field dependencies. The UT effort will incorporate these developments into MECS, which is a set of python scripts being developed at the University of Texas for managing the workflow associated with data-driven climate model development over HPC resources. This report reflects the main activities at the University of New Mexico where the PI (Huerta) and the Postdocs (Nosedal, Hattab and Karki) worked on the project.

  1. How to live with uncertainties?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, R.

    2012-01-01

    In a short introduction, the problem of uncertainty as a general consequence of incomplete information as well as the approach to quantify uncertainty in metrology are addressed. A little history of the more than 30 years of the working group AK SIGMA is followed by an appraisal of its up-to-now achievements. Then, the potential future of the AK SIGMA is discussed based on its actual tasks and on open scientific questions and future topics. (orig.)

  2. Some remarks on modeling uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronen, Y.

    1983-01-01

    Several topics related to the question of modeling uncertainties are considered. The first topic is related to the use of the generalized bias operator method for modeling uncertainties. The method is expanded to a more general form of operators. The generalized bias operator is also used in the inverse problem and applied to determine the anisotropic scattering law. The last topic discussed is related to the question of the limit to accuracy and how to establish its value. (orig.) [de

  3. Uncertainty analysis in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, Francisco Luiz de; Sullivan, Terry

    1997-01-01

    Nuclear waste disposal is a very complex subject which requires the study of many different fields of science, like hydro geology, meteorology, geochemistry, etc. In addition, the waste disposal facilities are designed to last for a very long period of time. Both of these conditions make safety assessment projections filled with uncertainty. This paper addresses approaches for treatment of uncertainties in the safety assessment modeling due to the variability of data and some current approaches used to deal with this problem. (author)

  4. Analysis of the structural steels corrosion resistance in sour water from petroleum refineries; Analise da resistencia a corrosao de acos estruturais em aguas acidas de refinarias de petroleo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proenca, Marcos B.; Freire, Celia M. de A. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica; Santos, Margatita B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica. Dept. de Fisica Aplicada

    1994-07-01

    The presence of H{sub 2} S in refineries FCC sour water provokes the formation of a passive Fe S scale. The cyanides present on sour water remove this scale, raising the corrosion rate in pipping and vessels. In this work it was measured the corrosion rate of structural steels in this water by electrochemical methods. Anodic polarization curves were plotted and the corrosion rates of the steels were determined. (author)

  5. Surface Studies of Ultra Strength Drilling Steel after Corrosion Fatigue in Simulated Sour Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Ziomek-Moroz; J.A. Hawk; R. Thodla; F. Gui

    2012-05-06

    The Unites States predicted 60% growth in energy demand by 2030 makes oil and natural gas primary target fuels for energy generation. The fact that the peak of oil production from shallow wells (< 5000 m) is about to be reached, thereby pushing the oil and natural gas industry into deeper wells. However, drilling to depths greater than 5000 m requires increasing the strength-to weight ratio of the drill pipe materials. Grade UD-165 is one of the ultra- high yield strength carbon steels developed for ultra deep drilling (UDD) activities. Drilling UDD wells exposes the drill pipes to Cl{sup -}, HCO{sub 3}{sup -}/CO{sub 3}{sup 2-}, and H{sub 2}S-containig corrosive environments (i.e., sour environments) at higher pressures and temperatures compared to those found in conventional wells. Because of the lack of synergism within the service environment, operational stresses can result in catastrophic brittle failures characteristic for environmentally assisted cracking (EAC). Approximately 75% of all drill string failures are caused by fatigue or corrosion fatigue. Since there is no literature data on the corrosion fatigue performance of UD-165 in sour environments, research was initiated to better clarify the fatigue crack growth (FCGR) behavior of this alloy in UDD environments. The FCGR behavior of ultra-strength carbon steel, grade UD-165, was investigated by monitoring crack growth rate in deaerated 5%NaCl solution buffered with NaHCO{sub 3}/Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3} and in contact with H{sub 2}S. The partial pressure of H{sub 2}S (p{sub H2S}) was 0.83 kPa and pH of the solution was adjusted by NaOH to 12. The fatigue experiments were performed at 20 and 85 C in an autoclave with surface investigations augmented by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy dispersive x-ray (EDX) spectroscopy. In this study, research focused on surface analyses supported by the fatigue crack growth rate measurements. Fig. 1 shows an SEM micrograph of the crack that propagated from the

  6. Decision-Making under Criteria Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.

    2018-05-01

    Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.

  7. Reação da laranjeira azêda à tristeza Reaction of the sour orange plant to tristeza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Costa

    1954-01-01

    plantas sadias se desenvolvem mais ou menos satisfatòriamente quando sôbre-enxertadas em galhos de laranjeira doce sobre laranjeira azêda, já em avançado estado de declínio. Uma copa mista de laranjeiras azêda e doce sôbre cavalo de azêda pode causar alguns benefícios à planta afetada pela tristeza sob determinadas condições, mas êsse benefício não é duradouro e o método não oferece possibilidades práticas. A laranjeira azêda em viveiro tem sido utilizada com vantagem na determinação da presença do vírus da tristeza em borbulhas de vários tipos de Citrus, pela observação do crescimento feito a partir dessas borbulhas em comparação com aquêle de borbulhas da mesma variedade garantidamente sadias. Para a determinação da presença de estirpes fracas do vírus o método é mais demorado. Interenxertos de laranjeira azêda entre copas e raízes de laranjeira doce são suficientes para que haja manifestação de sintomas da moléstia. Há aparentemente alguma translocação através do interenxêrto, pois o desenvolvimento do cavalo abaixo e acima dele é aproximadamente igual.Young sour orange seedlings are more easily infected with the tristeza virus by approach-grafts than by means of the aphid vector. Under natural conditions adult plants in the field are highly resistant to infection by the aphid vector. Recovery of the tristeza virus from infected sour orange plants is also more easily accomplished by tissue union than by means of the aphid vector. Sour orange seedlings show yellowing of young leaves followed by stunting and shedding of leaves when infected with the ordinary strain of the tristeza virus in Brazil. These symptoms do not differ from those described for seedling yellows. The symptoms of leaf yellowing are less evident in plants infected with mild strains of the tristeza virus and there is subsequent recovery. New flushes of young leaves may show occasional vein dashes. Sour orange tissues below the bud union of the sweet

  8. Analytical and sensorial characterization of the aroma of wines produced with sour rotten grapes using GC-O and GC-MS: identification of key aroma compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barata, André; Campo, Eva; Malfeito-Ferreira, Manuel; Loureiro, Virgílio; Cacho, Juan; Ferreira, Vicente

    2011-03-23

    In the present work, the aroma profiles of wines elaborated from sound and sour rot-infected grapes as raw material have been studied by sensory analysis, gas chromatography-olfactometry (GC-O), and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), with the aim of determining the odor volatiles most likely associated with this disease. The effect of sour rot was tested in monovarietal wines produced with the Portuguese red grape variety Trincadeira and in blends of Cabernet Sauvignon and sour rotten Trincadeira grapes. Wines produced from damaged berries exhibited clear honey-like notes not evoked by healthy samples. Ethyl phenylacetate (EPhA) and phenylacetic acid (PAA), both exhibiting sweet honey-like aromas, emerged as key aroma compounds of sour rotten wines. Their levels were 1 order of magnitude above those found in controls and reached 304 and 1668 μg L(-1) of EPhA and PAA, respectively, well above the corresponding odor thresholds. Levels of γ-nonalactone also increased by a factor 3 in sour rot samples. Results also suggest that sour rot exerts a great effect on the secondary metabolism of yeast, decreasing the levels of volatiles related to fatty acids and amino acid synthesis. The highest levels of γ-decalactone of up to 405 μg L(-1) were also found in all of the samples, suggesting that this could be a relevant aroma compound in Trincadeira wine aroma.

  9. Design of small diameter HT/HP sour service reeled rigid pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carneiro, Daniel; Gouveia, Joao; Tardelli, Luciano [Tecnitas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: daniel.carneiro@br.bureauveritas.com; Parrilha, Rafael [Bureau Veritas Group, London (United Kingdom); Oazen, Eduardo; Cardoso, Carlos [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-12-19

    The paper presents an overview of the challenges overcome in the engineering design of two 219 mm diameter, 6 km length oil production pipelines, to be installed by reeling at Espirito Santo Basin, offshore Brazilian coast in 1500 m water depth. The high temperature and high pressure (HT/HP) operating conditions and sour content associated with the small diameter required to single well oil production would usually lead to flexible flow line solution in Brazilian fields. The decision of employing small diameter thick-walled rigid C-Mn steel pipelines with thick thermal insulation made necessary extensive engineering work to achieve a safe and robust thermal expansion control arrangement, including the design of walking mitigation and buckle initiation apparatus; a feasible weld acceptance criterion covering both high cycle fatigue due to pipe lay and vortex induced vibration (VIV) at free spans, and high strain low cycle fatigue and fracture growth induced by reeling installation and in-service lateral buckling. Several studies were performed using highly non-linear three-dimensional finite element models considering: pipe-soil interaction with full 3D seabed bathymetry; load history maintained from pipe lay to operational cycles, including temperature transient effects; high plastic strains (including steel properties de-rating due to high temperature) and section ovalization; mechanical contact between pipe and appurtenances during both installation and operational phases. Pipe-soil interaction comprised embedment considering dynamic effects of pipe lay and full non-linear lateral and axial response curves including break-out and residual resistance. Strain concentration factors due to field joints were evaluated using detailed solid models considering non-linear response of both steel and insulation materials. Susceptibility to VIV at free spans was assessed considering post loaded deformed span natural frequencies, including multi-span interaction effects and

  10. Air emissions from sour-gas processing plants and dairy-cattle reproduction in Alberta, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, H M; Soskolne, C L; Martin, S W; Shoukri, M M; Lissemore, K D; Coppock, R W; Guidotti, T L

    2003-02-15

    The dispersion of air pollutants from all 231 licensed sour-gas processing plants in Alberta, Canada, was modeled on a monthly basis over a 10-year period (1985-1994). Exposure estimates for sulfur dioxide (SO(2)-used as a surrogate for exposure to combusted emissions) then were assigned to 1382 provincial dairy farms using a geographical-information system. Individual average and peak exposure for periods prior to each of 15 months of age and conception (four exposure-averaging periods for each of two dispersion models) were estimated for 163,988 primiparous female dairy-cattle between 1986 and 1994. Monthly or annual average farm-site exposure estimates likewise were assigned to associated herd-level data sets for the biologically relevant period of interest for each of three additional reproductive outcomes: monthly herd-average calving interval, stillbirth risk, and twinning risk. In one of the main-effects models, the maximum (i.e., peak) monthly sour-gas exposure experienced by individual-animals from birth to conception was associated with an increased time to first-calving in the very-highest exposure category (hazard ratio=0.86, 95% CI=0.80, 0.92). This equates to a decreased hazard (lambda) of calving (in each month subsequent to 22 months of age) for the highest-exposure animals (lambda=0.170) versus the zero-exposure animals (lambda=0.198) in a model with referent values for agro-ecological region and season of birth. The dose-response was not consistent across the full range of exposure categories. There was significant (P=0.003) interaction of emissions with agro-ecological region. After accounting for the interaction, a more-consistent dose-response was evident for some (but not all) agro-ecological regions. This suggests that any effect of emissions on dairy-heifer reproduction is subject to modification by features of soil type, vegetative cover, and/or climate. The increase in monthly herd-average calving interval on farms exposed to the very

  11. A field demonstration of the microbial treatment of sour produced water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sublette, K.L. [Univ. of Tulsa, OK (United States); Morse, D.; Raterman, K. [Amoco Production Co., Tulsa, OK (United States)

    1995-12-31

    The potential for detoxification and deodorization of sulfide-laden water (sour water) by microbial treatment was evaluated at a petroleum production site under field conditions. A sulfide-tolerant strain of the chemautotroph and facultative anaerobe, Thiobacillus denitrificans, was introduced into an oil-skimming pit of the Amoco Production Company LACT 10 Unit of the Salt Creek Field, Wyoming. Field-produced water enters this pit from the oil/water separation treatment train at an average flowrate of 5,000 bbl/D (795 m{sup 3}/D) with a potential maximum of 98,000 bbl/D (15,580 m{sup 3}/D). Water conditions at the pit inlet are 4,800 mg/l TDS, 100 mg/l sulfide, pH 7.8, and 107{degrees}F. To this water an aqueous solution of ammonium nitrate and diphosphorous pentoxide was added to provide required nutrients for the bacteria. The first 20% of the pit was aerated to a maximum depth of 5 ft (1.5 m) to facilitate the aerobic oxidation of sulfide. No provisions for pH control or biomass recovery and recycle were made. Pilot operations were initiated in October 1992 with the inoculation of the 19,000 bbl (3,020 m{sup 3}) pit with 40 lb (18.1 kg) of dry weight biomass. After a brief acclimation period, a nearly constant mass flux of 175 lb/D (80 kg/D) sulfide was established to the pit. Bio-oxidation of sulfide to elemental sulfur and sulfate was immediate and complete. Subsequent pilot operations focused upon process optimization and process sensitivity to system upsets. The process appeared most sensitive to large variations in sulfide loading due to maximum water discharge events. However, recoveries from such events could be accomplished within hours. This paper details all pertinent aspects of pilot operation, performance, and economics. Based on this body of evidence, it is suggested that the oxidation of inorganic sulfides by T denitrificans represents a viable concept for the treatment of sour water coproduced with oil and gas.

  12. Practices and prospect of petroleum engineering technologies in ultra-deep sour gas reservoirs, Yuanba Gasfield, Sichuan Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Xu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Located in the Sichuan Basin, the Yuanba Gasfield is the deepest marine sour gas field among those developed in China so far. Its biohermal gas reservoir of the Upper Permian Changxing Fm is characterized by ultra depth, high content of hydrogen sulfide, medium–low porosity and permeability, and small reservoir thickness. Economic evaluation on it shows that horizontal well drilling is the only way to develop this gas reservoir efficiently and to reduce the total development investment. At present, the petroleum engineering technology for this type of ultra-deep sour gas reservoir is less applied in the world, so an ultra-deep horizontal well is subject to a series of petroleum engineering technology difficulties, such as safe and fast well drilling and completion, mud logging, well logging, downhole operation, safety and environmental protection. Based on the successful development experience of the Puguang Gasfield, therefore, Sinopec Southwest Petroleum Engineering Co., Ltd. took the advantage of integrated engineering geology method to carry out specific technical research and perform practice diligently for 7 years. As a result, 18 key items of technologies for ultra-deep sour gas reservoirs were developed, including horizontal-well drilling speed increasing technology, horizontal-well mud logging and well logging technology, downhole operation technology, and safety and environmental protection technology. These technologies were applied in 40 wells during the first and second phases of productivity construction of the Yuanba Gasfield. All the 40 wells have been built into commercial gas wells, and the productivity construction goal of 3.4 billion m3 purified gas has also been achieved. These petroleum engineering technologies for ultra-deep sour gas fields play a reference role in exploring and developing similar gas reservoirs at home and abroad.

  13. High-efficiency low LCOE combined cycles for sour gas oxy-combustion with CO[subscript 2] capture

    OpenAIRE

    Chakroun, Nadim Walid; Ghoniem, Ahmed F

    2015-01-01

    The growing concerns over global warming and carbon dioxide emissions have driven extensive research into novel ways of capturing carbon dioxide in power generation plants. In this regard, oxy-fuel combustion has been considered as a promising technology. One unconventional fuel that is considered is sour gas, which is a mixture of methane, hydrogen sulfide and carbon dioxide. In this paper, carbon dioxide is used as the dilution medium in the combustor and different combined cycle configurat...

  14. Optimizing production under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend

    This Working Paper derives criteria for optimal production under uncertainty based on the state-contingent approach (Chambers and Quiggin, 2000), and discusses po-tential problems involved in applying the state-contingent approach in a normative context. The analytical approach uses the concept...... of state-contingent production functions and a definition of inputs including both sort of input, activity and alloca-tion technology. It also analyses production decisions where production is combined with trading in state-contingent claims such as insurance contracts. The final part discusses...

  15. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-12-01

    This paper presents a deterministic uncertainty analysis (DUA) method for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs compared to conventional statistical analysis. The method is based upon the availability of derivative and sensitivity data such as that calculated using the well known direct or adjoint sensitivity analysis techniques. Formation of response surfaces using derivative data and the propagation of input probability distributions are discussed relative to their role in the DUA method. A sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. Propogation of uncertainties by the DUA method is compared for ten cases in which the number of reference model runs was varied from one to ten. The DUA method gives a more accurate representation of the true cumulative distribution of the flow rate based upon as few as two model executions compared to fifty model executions using a statistical approach. 16 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  16. Effect of ultrasound on some chemical and microbiological properties of sour cherry juice by response surface methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Türken, Tuğba; Erge, Hande S

    2017-09-01

    In this study, it is aimed to determine effect of ultrasonication on some chemical and microbiological properties of sour cherry juice by response surface methodology, since ultrasound is known as an alternative method for thermal food processing. Sour cherry juice was sonicated at varying amplitude levels (50, 75, 100%); moderate temperatures (20, 30, 40 ℃); and treatment times of 2, 6, 10 min at a constant frequency of 20 kHz. Different ultrasonication amplitudes, temperatures, and times had no significant effect on pH,°Bx, and titratable acidity. A significant increase in total monomeric anthocyanins was observed as the amplitude level and temperature increased (p < 0.01). An increase in the total phenolics was also obtained as the temperature increased (p < 0.05). The effect of amplitude level on antioxidant capacity of sour cherry juice was also found significant (p < 0.05). Color parameters (L*, a*, b*, C, h) generally increased by increasing temperature, amplitude level, and treatment time. It was determined that Escherichia coli O157:H7 significantly affected by temperature and treatment time (p < 0.05).

  17. Lactic acid bacteria and yeasts associated with spontaneous fermentations during the production of sour cassava starch in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacerda, Inayara C A; Miranda, Rose L; Borelli, Beatriz M; Nunes, Alvaro C; Nardi, Regina M D; Lachance, Marc-André; Rosa, Carlos A

    2005-11-25

    Sour cassava starch is a traditional fermented food used in the preparation of fried foods and baked goods such as traditional cheese breads in Brazil. Thirty samples of sour cassava starch were collected from two factories in the state of Minas Gerais. The samples were examined for the presence of lactic acid bacteria, yeasts, mesophilic microorganisms, Bacillus cereus and faecal coliforms. Lactic acid bacteria and yeasts isolates were identified by biochemical tests, and the identities were confirmed by molecular methods. Lactobacillus plantarum and Lactobacillus fermentum were the prevalent lactic acid bacteria in product from both factories, at numbers between 6.0 and 9.0 log cfu g(-)(1). Lactobacillus perolans and Lactobacillus brevis were minor fractions of the population. Galactomyces geothricum and Issatchenkia sp. were the prevalent yeasts at numbers of 5.0 log cfu g(-)(1). A species similar to Candida ethanolica was frequently isolated from one factory. Mesophilic bacteria and amylolytic microorganisms were recovered in high numbers at all stages of the fermentation. B. cereus was found at low numbers in product at both factories. The spontaneous fermentations associated with the production of sour cassava starch involve a few species of lactic acid bacteria at high numbers and a variety of yeasts at relatively low numbers.

  18. A numerical study of under-deposit pitting corrosion in sour petroleum pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Z.; Sand, K.W.; Teevens, P.J. [Broadsword Corrosion Engineering Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Insufficient fluid velocity in petroleum pipelines can lead to the deposit of sand, corrosion products, and non-corrosion products on the pipe's metal surface, which in turn can lead to pitting corrosion. There is currently no reliable means of detecting and preventing the pitting process. This paper presented a computerized simulation tool that used the finite element method to model mass transfer-governed internal pitting corrosion under solids deposition in sour petroleum pipelines. The computational domain consisted of a hemispherical pit and a thin stagnant solution film under a surface deposit. The moving mesh method was used to track pitting growth. A Poisson equation was used to determine aqueous path migration of ions. Pitting corrosion rates were estimated using the Nernst-Planck equation. The model was used to predict the effects of different operating parameters on pitting corrosion rates. The model can be used to develop pigging and in-line-inspection (ILI) procedures. 35 refs., 2 tabs., 16 figs.

  19. Options for cleaning up subsurface contamination at Alberta sour gas plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardisty, P.; Dabrowski, T.L.

    1992-01-01

    At the conclusion of two major phases of a study on subsurface treatment technologies for Alberta sour gas plants, a candidate site was selected for a remediation technologies demonstration project. The plant has an extensive groundwater monitoring network in place, monitoring records for a period exceeding 10 years, ten recovery wells with aquifer test data and four reinjection wells. Hydrogeological exploration determined the presence and delineated a plume of free phase natural gas condensate. Aquifer remediation efforts at the site began in 1990 with the installation of recovery wells. Recovered groundwater was treated using a pilot scale air stripping system with pretreatment for iron, manganese and hardness. Dual pump system, water depression and free product skimmers were installed in the wells and tested. The nature and extent of contamination, study methodology, technology-dependent criteria, assessment of technology, and conceptual design are discussed for the three demonstration projects selected, which are enhanced soil vapour extraction with off-gas treatment, pump-and-treat with soil vapour extraction, biological treatment and air sparging, and treatment of dissolved process chemicals by advanced oxidation. 5 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  20. Families near proposed sour gas wells wary company can protect them

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2005-01-01

    Public objections to the Compton Petroleum Corporation's intentions to add six new sour gas wells to an existing well it now operates near a residential area in the Calgary area, are discussed. Fifty-five families live within 15 km of the proposed wellsite; they are concerned about the safety of the plan, claiming that the company has not done enough to inform them about the potential hazards. Company officials assured residents that those living within the emergency zone (i.e. within four km of the wells) will be evacuated from the area before a blowout occurs. As far as residents outside the emergency zone are concerned, independent risk analysis experts testified that the risk to those residents is negligible. The company claims that Alberta law compels them to maximize the recovery of petroleum resources and by not drilling the proposed wells the company leaves itself open to charges for leaving some reserves in the ground. The Company also claims that by drilling the additional wells, it would be in a position to deplete the gas reserves faster, shut down the existing wells and return the land to the city much sooner than otherwise would be possible. Lawyers for the Coalition of Concerned Communities are challenging the Company's claim that the wells must be drilled so industry can make way for city expansion. 1 fig

  1. Aqueous extraction of pectin from sour orange peel and its preliminary physicochemical properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Seyed Saeid; Khodaiyan, Faramarz; Yarmand, Mohammad Saeid

    2016-01-01

    Sour orange peel, a by-product of the fruit juice industry, was used as a source of pectin. The effects of temperature (75-95°C), time (30-90 min), and liquid-solid ratio (20-40, v/w) were investigated on yield, methoxylation degree (DE), and galacturonic acid content using a Box-Behnken design and response surface methodology. The highest extraction yield (17.95 ± 0.3%) was obtained at temperature of 95°C, time of 90 min, and liquid-solid ratio of 25 (v/w). The DE values for the pectin ranged from 17% to 30.5%, indicating that the pectin was low in methoxyle. The emulsifying activity of pectin extracted under optimal conditions was 45%. The emulsions were 86.6% stable at 4°C and 71.4% at 23°C after 30 days of storage. The pectin exhibited Newtonian flow at low concentrations (≤ 1.0%, w/v); as the concentration increased, pseudoplastic flow became dominant. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Using random event simulation to evaluate the effectiveness of indoor sheltering during a sour gas release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, D.

    2003-01-01

    In the event of sour gas releases to the atmosphere, there is a strong bias toward evacuation rather than sheltering-in-place. This paper described the critical factors in decision-making for shelter-in-place versus evacuation. These include: delay time expected before release begins; size of potential release, explosion or fire; expected duration; direction to safety for evacuation; the air tightness of the building; and, the number of people in the emergency response zone. A shelter-in-place decision chart developed by the Canadian Association of Fire Chiefs was presented. It shows the usual bias toward evacuation as the default position. It also shows the greatest drawbacks of sheltering-in-place. The main factor in maintaining the effectiveness of the building shelter is the rate of air infiltration into the building. Other issues to consider include: reactive versus passive chemicals in the release; light versus heavy gas releases; building type (houses, high-rise apartments, office buildings, or warehouses); tightness of building construction; whether to turn the house heating and air conditioning on or off during shelter; daytime versus nighttime conditions; and, cost factors. Equations for calculating indoor and outdoor toxic exposure to decide on shelter versus evacuation were also presented. It was concluded that the absence of peak concentrations dramatically reduce the risk of fatality to people sheltering indoors. Keeping people indoors is the best way to assure their safety for the first hour following a toxic release. 8 refs., 6 figs

  3. Selection of autochthonous sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L. genotypes in Feketić region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radičević Sanja

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Autochthonous genotypes of fruit species are very important source of genetic variability and valuable material for breeding work. Fruit Research Institute-Čačak has a long tradition of studying autochthonous genotypes of temperate fruits sporadically spread and preserved in some localities in Serbia. Over 2005-2006, the following properties of nine autochthonous sour cherry genotypes grown in Feketic region were investigated: flowering and ripening time, pomological properties, biochemical composition of fruits and field resistance to causal agents of cherry diseases - cherry leaf spot (Blumeriella jaapii (Rehm. v. Arx., shot-hole (Clasterosporium carpophilum (Lév. Aderh. and brown rot (Monilinia laxa /Ader et Ruhl./ Honey ex Whetz.. The genotypes were tested for the presence of Prune dwarf virus and Prunus necrotic ring spot virus. In majority of genotypes fruits were large, with exceptional organoleptical properties, whereas ripening time was in the first ten or twenty days of June. The highest fruit weight was observed in F-1 genotype (8.1 g. The highest soluble solids and total sugars content were found in F- 4 genotype (17.60% and 14.25%, respectively. As for field resistance to causal agents of diseases and good pomo-technological properties, F-1, F-2, F-3, F-7 and F-8 genotypes were singled out. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR31064

  4. Uncertainty and measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landsberg, P.T.

    1990-01-01

    This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

  5. Religion, assessment and the problem of 'normative uncertainty' for mental health student nurses: a critical incident-informed qualitative interview study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, A M; Baker, C; Cross, S

    2015-10-01

    There is limited research around how mental health (MH) student nurses interpret and differentiate between people's religious and cultural beliefs and the existence of psychopathological symptomatology and experiences. Here we focus on one cultural issue that arose from research exploring how MH student nurses approach and interpret religion and culture in their practice - that is, the difficulties in determining the clinical significance of the religious beliefs and experiences expressed by the people they care for. While problems with establishing the cultural boundaries of normality in clinical assessments are an important area of debate in cultural psychiatry, it remains a peripheral issue in MH nurse education. An anthropologically informed qualitative research design underpinned 'critical incident' (CI)-focused ethnographic interviews with 36 second and third-year MH nursing field students and seven undergraduate MH branch lecturers. Follow up focus groups were also carried out. Interview transcripts were subject to thematic analysis. Four subthemes were identified under the broad theme of the clinical significance of religious-type expression and experience: (1) identifying the difference between delusions and religious belief; (2) identifying whether an experience was hallucination or religious experience; (3) the clinical implications of such challenges; and (4) applying religion-specific knowledge. There are clinical implications that may result from the difficulties with assessing the clinical significance of religious beliefs and experiences, identified in both our research and within international cultural psychiatry literature and research. Misinterpretation and therefore wrongly assessing someone's experience as pathological is a significant concern. It is suggested that CI analysis could be adapted to help nurses, nursing students and nurse educators recognize the religious dimensions of mental distress, particularly those that then potentially

  6. Uncertainty Quantification in Numerical Aerodynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-05-16

    We consider uncertainty quantification problem in aerodynamic simulations. We identify input uncertainties, classify them, suggest an appropriate statistical model and, finally, estimate propagation of these uncertainties into the solution (pressure, velocity and density fields as well as the lift and drag coefficients). The deterministic problem under consideration is a compressible transonic Reynolds-averaged Navier-Strokes flow around an airfoil with random/uncertain data. Input uncertainties include: uncertain angle of attack, the Mach number, random perturbations in the airfoil geometry, mesh, shock location, turbulence model and parameters of this turbulence model. This problem requires efficient numerical/statistical methods since it is computationally expensive, especially for the uncertainties caused by random geometry variations which involve a large number of variables. In numerical section we compares five methods, including quasi-Monte Carlo quadrature, polynomial chaos with coefficients determined by sparse quadrature and gradient-enhanced version of Kriging, radial basis functions and point collocation polynomial chaos, in their efficiency in estimating statistics of aerodynamic performance upon random perturbation to the airfoil geometry [D.Liu et al \\'17]. For modeling we used the TAU code, developed in DLR, Germany.

  7. Robust portfolio selection under norm uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, we consider the robust portfolio selection problem which has a data uncertainty described by the ( p , w $(p,w$ -norm in the objective function. We show that the robust formulation of this problem is equivalent to a linear optimization problem. Moreover, we present some numerical results concerning our robust portfolio selection problem.

  8. ERCB investigation report : Daylight Energy Amalgamation Co Ltd. sour gas release surface location 06-23-047-10W5M December 16, 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Temple, B.; Schlager, J.; Wilkes, J.; Saulnier, P.; Mayall, J.; Duben, A.; Ravensdale, C.

    2010-07-21

    This report discussed a sour gas release that occurred at a well located near the town of Lodgepole. The well had a hydrogen sulfide (H{sub 2}S) concentration of 29.19 per cent, with an emergency planning zone (EPZ) of 570 m. The owner of the well contacted stakeholders in the region, and road blocks were set up north of the well. Three mobile air monitoring units were dispatched to the site, and service contractors were hired to kill the well. The road blocks were removed after a review of the air monitoring data. Prior to the release, a heat tape assembly had been installed in the well as a result of ongoing hydrate formation problems. An investigation of the well after the release showed damage to the connectors in the heat tape assembly. A failure analysis showed that the damage was caused by excessive temperatures created by a short circuit in the wires located in each connector. The heat allowed downhole gas pressure to push the wire to the surface. Gas was released from the damaged assembly seal. An outline of all steps taken to address the emergency was provided. 4 figs.

  9. A comparative study of the effect of green tea and sour tea on blood pressure and lipid profile in healthy adult men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzieh Kafeshani

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD are a set of metabolic disorders affecting heart and blood vessels. Green tea and sour tea (Hibiscus sabdariffa L. have attracted significant attention recently due to their high popularity, nutrient profile and therapeutic effects. The aim of the present study was to compare the effects of green tea and sour tea supplementation on blood pressure and lipid profile in healthy adult men. METHODS: This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial included 54 healthy adult men. The participants were randomly assigned to two intervention groups receiving 450 mg green tea or sour tea and one placebo group which consumed 450 mg placebo (maltodextrin for 6 weeks. Blood pressure, lipid profile, dietary intake and physical activity were measured pre- and post-intervention and compared. RESULTS: After 6 weeks of intervention, sour tea supplementation led to a significant decrease in systolic blood pressure (SBP compared with the placebo group. However, we faild to find any significant difference in SBP between green tea and control groups. Also, no significant changes were observed in diastolic blood pressure (DBP and lipid profile between the three groups. In comparison with baseline, there was a significant increase in the mean level of serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C in green tea and sour tea groups. Also, the interventions resulted in significant decrease in the mean levels of serum total cholesterol (TC and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C and DBP in the sour tea group compared with the pre-intervention value. CONCLUSION: On the basis of our findings, sour tea supplementation led to decreased SBP in healthy men compared with the placebo, but there was no significant difference between their effects on DBP and lipid profile. 

  10. Competitive Capacity Investment under Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    X. Li (Xishu); R.A. Zuidwijk (Rob); M.B.M. de Koster (René); R. Dekker (Rommert)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe consider a long-term capacity investment problem in a competitive market under demand uncertainty. Two firms move sequentially in the competition and a firm’s capacity decision interacts with the other firm’s current and future capacity. Throughout the investment race, a firm can

  11. The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

    1994-01-01

    All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

  12. Aggregate Uncertainty, Money and Banking

    OpenAIRE

    Hongfei Sun

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the problem of monitoring the monitor in a model of money and banking with aggregate uncertainty. It shows that when inside money is required as a means of bank loan repayment, a market of inside money is entailed at the repayment stage and generates information-revealing prices that perfectly discipline the bank. The incentive problem of a bank is costlessly overcome simply by involving inside money in repayment. Inside money distinguishes itself from outside money by its ...

  13. Evaluation of thiosulfate as a substitute for hydrogen sulfide in sour corrosion fatigue studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, Mariano Alberto

    This work evaluates the possibility of replacing hydrogen sulfide (H 2S) with thiosulfate anion (S2O32- ) in sour corrosion fatigue studies. H2S increases the corrosion fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR) and can be present in carbon steel risers and flowlines used in off-shore oil production. Corrosion tests with gaseous H2S require special facilities with safety features, because H2S is a toxic and flammable gas. The possibility of replacing H2S with S2O32-, a non-toxic anion, for studying stress corrosion cracking of stainless and carbon steels in H2S solutions was first proposed by Tsujikawa et al. ( Tsujikawa et al., Corrosion, 1993. 49(5): p. 409-419). In this dissertation, Tsujikawa work will be extended to sour corrosion fatigue of carbon steels. H2S testing is often conducted in deareated condition to avoid oxygen reaction with sulfide that yields sulfur and to mimic oil production conditions. Nitrogen deareation was also adopted in S2O3 2- testing, and gas exiting the cell was forced through a sodium hydroxide trap. Measurements of the sulfide content of this trap were used to estimate the partial pressure of H2S in nitrogen, and Henry's law was used to estimate the content of H2S in the solution in the cell. H2S was produced by a redox reaction of S2O 32-, which required electrons from carbon steel corrosion. This reaction is spontaneous at the open circuit potential of steel. Therefore, H2S concentration was expected to be maximum at the steel surface, and this concentration was estimated by a mass balance analysis. Carbon steel specimens exposed to S2O32- containing solutions developed a film on their surface, composed by iron sulfide and cementite. The film was not passivating and a good conductor of electrons. Hydrogen permeation experiments proved that this film controls the rate of hydrogen absorption of steels exposed to thiosulfate containing solutions. The absorption of hydrogen in S2O3 2- solutions was compared with the absorption of hydrogen in

  14. The effects of the lodgepole sour gas well blowout on coniferous tree growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, K.A.

    1991-01-01

    A dendrochronological study was used to evaluate growth impacts on White Spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) resulting from the 1982 Lodgepole sour gas well blowout. Stem analysis was evaluated from four ecologically similar monitoring sites located on a 10 kilometre downwind gradient and compared to a control site. Incremental volume was calculated, standardized using running mean filters and analyzed using one-way ANOVA. Pre and post-blowout growth trends were analyzed between sites and were also evaluated over a height profile in order to assess growth impact variability within individual trees. Growth reductions at the two sites closest the wellhead were statistically significant for five post-blowout years. Growth at these condensate impacted sites was reduced to 9.8% and 38.1% in 1983. Differences in growth reductions reflect a gradient of effects and a dose-response relationship. Recovery of surviving trees has been rapid but is leveling off at approximately 80% of pre-blowout growth. growth reductions were greater and recovery rates slower than those previously predicted by other authors. Statistically significant differences in height profile growth responses were limited to the upper portions of the trees. Growth rates over a tree height profile ranged from 10% less to 50% more than growth rates observed at a 1.3 metres. Analytical methodologies detected and described growth differences over a height profile but a larger sample size was desirable. As is always the case in catastrophic events, obtaining pre-event baseline data is often difficult. Dendrochronological methods described in this paper offer techniques for determining pre-blowout growth and monitoring impacts and recovery in forested areas

  15. High hydrostatic pressure inactivation of total aerobic bacteria, lactic acid bacteria, yeasts in sour Chinese cabbage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin; Feng, Lun; Yi, Junjie; Hua, Cheng; Chen, Fang; Liao, Xiaojun; Wang, Zhengfu; Hu, Xiaosong

    2010-08-15

    This study investigated the inactivation of total aerobic bacteria (TAB), lactic acid bacteria (LAB), yeasts in sour Chinese cabbage (SCC) treated by high hydrostatic pressure (HHP). The pressure level ranged from 200 to 600 MPa and the treatment time were 10-30 min. All samples were stored at 4, 27 and 37 degrees C for 90 days. The pressure level of 200 MPa had no significant impact on these microorganisms. The counts of TAB were significantly reduced by 2.7-4.0 log(10)CFU/g at 400 MPa and 4.2-4.5 log(10)CFU/g at 600 MPa from 6.2 log(10)CFU/g; the counts of LAB were also reduced by 2.4-4.3 log(10)CFU/g at 400 MPa from 7.0 log(10)CFU/g and LAB was completely inactivated at 600 MPa; the counts of yeasts were reduced by 1.5-2.0 log(10)CFU/g at 400 and 600 MPa from 4.2 log(10)CFU/g. Storage temperatures significantly influenced the microbial proliferation in HHP-treated SCC depending on the pressure levels. The surviving TAB and LAB at 400 MPa equaled initial counts after 15-day storage at 27 and 37 degrees C, whereas they were inhibited at 4 degrees C up to 60 days. The surviving TAB at 600 MPa did not grow. Yeasts at 400 and 600 MPa decreased below detectable level after 2 days at all the three storage temperatures. From the microbial safety point of view, the result indicated that HHP at 600 MPa could be used as an alternative preservation method for SCC. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. New progress in wastewater treatment technology for standard-reaching discharge in sour gas fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Yang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Gas field water is generally characterized by complex contaminant components and high salinity. Its proper treatment has always been the great concern in the field of environmental protection of oil & gas fields. In this paper, the wastewater from a gas field in the Sichuan Basin with high salinity and more contaminants (e.g. sulfides was treated as a case study for the standard-reaching discharge. Lab experiments were carried out to analyze the adaptability and effectiveness of coagulation–desulfurization composite treatment technology, chemical oxidation based ammonia nitrogen removal technology and cryogenic multi-efficacy distillation technology in the treatment of wastewater in this field. The results show that the removal rate of sulfides and oils is over 90% if polymeric ferric sulfate (PFS is taken as the coagulant combined with TS-1 desulfurization agent. Besides, the removal rate of ammonia nitrogen is over 96% if CA-1 is taken as the oxidant. Finally, after the gas field water is treated by means of cryogenic three-efficacy distillation technology, chloride concentration of distilled water is below 150 mg/L and CODcr concentration is less than 60 mg/L. It is concluded that after the whole process treatment, the main contaminant indicators of wastewater in this case study can satisfy the grade one standard specified in the Integrated Wastewater Discharge Standard (GB 8978–1996 and the chloride concentration can meet the requirement of the Standards for Irrigation Water Quality (GB 5084–2005. To sum up, the above mentioned composite technologies are efficient to the wastewater treatment in sour gas fields. Keywords: Sulfide-bearing gas field water, Coagulation, Desulfurization, Chemical oxidation, Standard discharge, Ammonia nitrogen, Chloride, Cryogenic multi-efficacy distillation, Sichuan Basin

  17. Carbohydrate production, balance and translocation in leaves, shoots and fruits of Montmorency sour cherry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kappes, E.M.

    1986-01-01

    Carbohydrate production, export and use were studied for different organs of sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L. Montmorency). Gross carbohydrate ( 14 CO 2 ) export started between 27.2 and 77.6% of full leaf expansion. The 10th leaf developing started export later than the 7th leaf, suggesting that higher carbohydrate availability during leaf expansion delays export initiation. In support of this, gross export started earlier (44.4-52.4% full expansion) after source leaf removal, than in the control (77.6%). Translocation was primarily vertical (following orthostichies). Most leaves of fruiting shoots exported bidirectionally to the apex and fruits, only leaves closest to fruits exported exclusively to fruits during rapid cell division (Stage I) and rapid cell expansion (Stage III). Net export, determined from carbohydrate balance models started at 17 and 51% expansion for the 7th and terminal leaf, and at 26.5% of shoot elongation. Cumulative carbohydrate production of the 7th and terminal leaves during the first 9 and 11 days after emergence, exceeded carbohydrate accumulated at final size, 464.2 and 148.9 mg. A fruit carbohydrate balance was developed to determine contributions by fruit photosynthesis and fruit respiration, and to identify periods of greatest carbohydrate import. Fruit photosynthesis during development was characterized under different environmental conditions. Gross photosynthesis and chlorophyll content per fruit increased to a maximum during stage II and decreased thereafter. Gross photosynthesis approached a maximum at 40 0 C. Since dark respiration increased exponentially over the same temperature range, net photosynthesis reached a maximum at 18 0 C. Photorespiration was not detected

  18. TEXTURAL, FLOW AND SENSORY PROPERTIES OF FIVE “FRUZELINA” WITH SOUR CHERRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena Bojdo Tomasiak

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Gel with sour cherries called “Fruzelina” is a new product in the Polish market widely used in food industry as a decorative element or filling for pastries, as an ingredient in fruit desserts, as an additive to ice creams, whipped cream and waffles. The cherry gels are the product prepared using different types of chemically modified starches. Starch is an additive used to ensure rich and short texture and high viscosity of “Fruzelina”. Food texture and viscosity may be measured by senses and instrumentally. Because of fact that sensory analysis is time consuming and very costly, it is easier and cheaper to determine food properties, especially their texture and flow behaviour by appropriate mechanical tests. The aim of this work was to study the rheological behavior of five cherry gels and evaluate the correlation between textural, flow and sensory properties of these gels measured instrumentally and by human senses. The back extrusion test has been found to be applicable to study the textural properties of cherry gels. There was high positive correlation between gel texture measured by senses and texture parameters measured in back extrusion test. Similar high correlation was identified for consistency coefficient K obtained in Ostwald de Waele model and gel texture assessed by sensory panel. It was found that values of sensory parameters such as taste and odour decreased as the rheological parameters increased. High negative correlations were observed in these cases. Therefore, instrumental measurements can be alternative for more expensive sensory methods. doi:10.5219/53

  19. Acid stimulation (sour taste elicits GABA and serotonin release from mouse taste cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yijen A Huang

    Full Text Available Several transmitter candidates including serotonin (5-HT, ATP, and norepinephrine (NE have been identified in taste buds. Recently, γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA as well as the associated synthetic enzymes and receptors have also been identified in taste cells. GABA reduces taste-evoked ATP secretion from Receptor cells and is considered to be an inhibitory transmitter in taste buds. However, to date, the identity of GABAergic taste cells and the specific stimulus for GABA release are not well understood. In the present study, we used genetically-engineered Chinese hamster ovary (CHO cells stably co-expressing GABA(B receptors and Gαqo5 proteins to measure GABA release from isolated taste buds. We recorded robust responses from GABA biosensors when they were positioned against taste buds isolated from mouse circumvallate papillae and the buds were depolarized with KCl or a stimulated with an acid (sour taste. In contrast, a mixture of sweet and bitter taste stimuli did not trigger GABA release. KCl- or acid-evoked GABA secretion from taste buds was Ca(2+-dependent; removing Ca(2+ from the bathing medium eliminated GABA secretion. Finally, we isolated individual taste cells to identify the origin of GABA secretion. GABA was released only from Presynaptic (Type III cells and not from Receptor (Type II cells. Previously, we reported that 5-HT released from Presynaptic cells inhibits taste-evoked ATP secretion. Combined with the recent findings that GABA depresses taste-evoked ATP secretion, the present results indicate that GABA and 5-HT are inhibitory transmitters in mouse taste buds and both likely play an important role in modulating taste responses.

  20. Shell Canada Limited application for increased throughput sour gas plant - Caroline Field : decision 97-5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-06-01

    The Alberta Energy and Utilities Board considered an application by Shell Canada Limited to amend its existing Caroline Gas plant approval. Shell desires to add additional cooling equipment to enhance gas processing during the warmer months. Interveners raised several concerns, including the impact of the existing operation on the environment, and the health and safety of the community. Shell stated that the proposed increased throughput of sour gas would result in a 21 per cent increase in sulphur inlet, but that the emissions of SO 2 would still remain below the currently-approved daily maximum level of 45 t/d. Shell also stated that the proposed project would have no impact on flaring duration or frequency. The Board reviewed the evidence filed, and considered the comments of the participants made at a pre-hearing on June 11, 1996. The Board's assessment was that a public hearing was necessary to address Shell's application. The Board also expressed the belief that the scope of the public hearing should be limited to the possible impacts that may occur from the processing of incremental raw inlet gas and sulphur. A hearing date of July 22, 1996 was set. Having regard to the evidence which the Board received and considered, the Board declared itself satisfied that the technical changes to the plant were satisfactory and that the applied-for plant modifications would meet regulatory standards. The Board also believed that the approval of the application to increase throughput at the plant would be in the public interest. Accordingly, the Board declared its readiness to approve the application provided that Shell agreed to meet certain specified conditions. tab., 1 fig

  1. Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oughton, D.H.; Agueero, A.; Avila, R.; Brown, J.E.; Copplestone, D.; Gilek, M.

    2008-01-01

    Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties

  2. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    OpenAIRE

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...

  3. Scaling and uncertainty in BWR instability problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Auria, F.; Pellicoro, V.

    1995-01-01

    This paper deals with a critical review of activities, performed at the DCMN of Pisa University, in relation to the thermo-hydraulic oscillations in two-phase systems. Stability analyses, including model development and achievement of experimental data, are generally performed for BWRs in order to achieve the following objectives: to reach a common understanding in relation to the predictive capabilities of system codes and to the influence of various parameters on the instability; to establish a data base for the qualification of the analytical tools already or becoming available; to set-up qualified tools (code/models + nodalization + user assumption) suitable for predicting the unstable behaviour of the nuclear plants of interest (current BWR, SBWR, ABWR and RBMK). These considerations have been the basis for the following researches: 1) proposal of the Boiling Instability Program (BIP) (1) 2) evaluation of stability tests in PIPER-ONE apparatus (2) 3) coupled thermal-hydraulic and neutronic instabilities in the LaSalle-2 BWR plant (3) 4) participation to the NEA-OECD BWR Benchmark (4) The RELAP/MOD2 and RELAP5/MOD3 codes have been used. (author)

  4. Wastewater treatment modelling: dealing with uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belia, E.; Amerlinck, Y.; Benedetti, L.

    2009-01-01

    This paper serves as a problem statement of the issues surrounding uncertainty in wastewater treatment modelling. The paper proposes a structure for identifying the sources of uncertainty introduced during each step of an engineering project concerned with model-based design or optimisation...

  5. Worry, Intolerance of Uncertainty, and Statistics Anxiety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Amanda S.

    2013-01-01

    Statistics anxiety is a problem for most graduate students. This study investigates the relationship between intolerance of uncertainty, worry, and statistics anxiety. Intolerance of uncertainty was significantly related to worry, and worry was significantly related to three types of statistics anxiety. Six types of statistics anxiety were…

  6. Uncertainty analysis in safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemos, Francisco Luiz de [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Sullivan, Terry [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Nuclear waste disposal is a very complex subject which requires the study of many different fields of science, like hydro geology, meteorology, geochemistry, etc. In addition, the waste disposal facilities are designed to last for a very long period of time. Both of these conditions make safety assessment projections filled with uncertainty. This paper addresses approaches for treatment of uncertainties in the safety assessment modeling due to the variability of data and some current approaches used to deal with this problem. (author) 13 refs.; e-mail: lemos at bnl.gov; sulliva1 at bnl.gov

  7. The Effect of Green Tea and Sour Tea (Hibiscus sabdariffa L.) Supplementation on Oxidative Stress and Muscle Damage in Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadi, Amir; Pourmasoumi, Makan; Kafeshani, Marzieh; Karimian, Jahangir; Maracy, Mohammad Reza; Entezari, Mohammad Hasan

    2017-05-04

    Additional oxygen consumption during intense exercises may lead to oxidative stress and contribute to muscular fatigue. Green tea and sour tea (Hibiscus sabdariffa L.), which contain various flavonoids and polyphenols, have many healthful properties such as anticarcinogenic, anti-inflammatory, and heart protecting effects. The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of green tea and sour tea supplementation on oxidative stress and muscle damage in soccer athletes. This randomized, double-blind control trial was conducted on 54 male soccer players. Participants were randomly assigned to three groups to receive: 450 mg/d green tea extract (GTE) in the first group (n = 18), 450 mg/d sour tea extract (STE) in the second group (n = 18) and 450 mg/d maltodextrin in the control group (n = 18). Fasting whole blood samples were taken under resting conditions at the beginning and the end of the study to quantify the serum levels of muscle damage indices, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), creatine kinase (CK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and oxidative stress biomarkers, malondialdehyde (MDA), and total antioxidant capacity (TAC). After six weeks intervention, athletes who received GTE and STE supplements compared with the placebo had a significantly decreased MDA level (P = 0.008). Furthermore, STE supplementation resulted in a significant increase in TAC level compared with GTE and placebo groups (P = 0.01). However, supplementation with GTE and STE had no significant effects on muscle damage indices. GTE and STE supplementation have beneficial effects on oxidative stress status in male athletes. However, both kinds of tea extract did not affect muscle damage status.

  8. In Vivo Fast Induction of Homogeneous Autopolyploids via Callus in Sour Jujube (Ziziphus acidojujuba Cheng et Liu

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinghua Shi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Polyploidization has been demonstrated as a very effective approach in fruit tree improvement. Sour jujube (Ziziphus acidojujuba Cheng et Liu is a promising diploid wild, traditional fruit species (2n = 2x = 24 that is rich in vitamin C, which is the main rootstock of Chinese jujube (Z. jujuba Mill.. The novel method we developed for rapid in vivo induction of homogeneous autopolyploids (IVIHA via callus in Chinese jujube was first applied and further optimized in sour jujube. Under optimized conditions, an average of one pure autotetraploid shoot could be regenerated from one treated branch, thereby indicating a relatively high efficiency rate. A total of 9 pure autotetraploid genotypes were created, and one of these was released as a new cultivar named ‘Zhuguang’ in 2015. Moreover, unexpected octoploids and hexaploids were also simultaneously created and detected. The leaves of tetraploids were thicker, broader, and darker in color than those of the original diploids, whereas the leaf sizes of octoploids were much smaller compared to that of diploids. However, stoma size increased with the occurrence of ploidy, mainly from diploid to octoploid. The well grown ploidies of jujube included diploids, triploids, and tetraploids. Anatomical observation indicated that adventitious buds/shoots emerged from the callus that formed on the cut, which was then followed by the development of connective vascular tissues between the adventitious bud and the stock plant tissue. This study demonstrates the universality of the IVIHA method that was initially developed in Chinese jujube, as well as provides a foundation for high-efficiency pure polyploid induction in sour jujube.

  9. Problems in maintenance of herd health associated with acid forming emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostuch, M.

    1992-01-01

    The effects of sour gas plant emissions on dairy herds are described. A veterinarian establishing a practice in Rocky Mountain House, Alberta, found that dairy herds in that area suffered from a disproportionately higher occurrence of health problems than Minnesota herds with similar types of management. These problems are postulated to result from acid-forming emissions from two large sour gas plants in the area (the Ram River and Gulf Strachan plants). Health problems found in dairy cattle in the Rocky Mountain House area were: unthriftiness, increased susceptibility to infectious diseases, reproductive problems, and 'downer' animals (cows unable to stand up unassisted). Problems related to the reproductive organs were the most apparent. Clinical observations of problems in dairy herds are described. Since the levels of emissions from the plants have decreased, incidence of problems in dairy herds has also decreased. 1 ref., 2 figs

  10. Formation and Control of Sulfur Oxides in Sour Gas Oxy-Combustion: Prediction Using a Reactor Network Model

    KAUST Repository

    Bongartz, Dominik

    2015-11-19

    © 2015 American Chemical Society. Sour natural gas currently requires expensive gas cleanup before it can be used in power generation because it contains large amounts of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and carbon dioxide (CO2) that entail a low heating value and highly corrosive combustion products. A potential alternative is to use the gas directly in a gas turbine process employing oxy-fuel combustion, which could eliminate the need for gas cleanup while also enabling the application of carbon capture and sequestration, possibly combined with enhanced oil recovery (EOR). However, the exact influence of an oxy-fuel environment on the combustion products of sour gas has not been quantified yet. In this work, we used a reactor network model for the combustor and the gas turbine together with our recently assembled and validated detailed chemical reaction mechanism for sour gas combustion to investigate the influence of some basic design parameters on the combustion products of natural gas and sour gas in CO2 or H2O diluted oxy-fuel combustion as well as in conventional air combustion. Our calculations show that oxy-fuel combustion produces up to 2 orders of magnitude less of the highly corrosive product sulfur trioxide (SO3) than air combustion, which clearly demonstrates its potential in handling sulfur containing fuels. Unlike in air combustion, in oxy-fuel combustion, SO3 is mainly formed in the flame zone of the combustor and is then consumed as the combustion products are cooled in the dilution zone of the combustor and the turbine. In oxy-fuel combustion, H2O dilution leads to a higher combustion efficiency than CO2 dilution. However, if the process is to be combined with EOR, CO2 dilution makes it easier to comply with the very low levels of oxygen (O2) required in the EOR stream. Our calculations also show that it might even be beneficial to operate slightly fuel-rich because this simultaneously decreases the O2 and SO3 concentration further. The flame zone

  11. Decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyert, R.M.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on ways of improving the reliability of products and systems in this country if we are to survive as a first-rate industrial power. The use of statistical techniques have, since the 1920s, been viewed as one of the methods for testing quality and estimating the level of quality in a universe of output. Statistical quality control is not relevant, generally, to improving systems in an industry like yours, but certainly the use of probability concepts is of significance. In addition, when it is recognized that part of the problem involves making decisions under uncertainty, it becomes clear that techniques such as sequential decision making and Bayesian analysis become major methodological approaches that must be utilized

  12. Big data uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maugis, Pierre-André G

    2018-07-01

    Big data-the idea that an always-larger volume of information is being constantly recorded-suggests that new problems can now be subjected to scientific scrutiny. However, can classical statistical methods be used directly on big data? We analyze the problem by looking at two known pitfalls of big datasets. First, that they are biased, in the sense that they do not offer a complete view of the populations under consideration. Second, that they present a weak but pervasive level of dependence between all their components. In both cases we observe that the uncertainty of the conclusion obtained by statistical methods is increased when used on big data, either because of a systematic error (bias), or because of a larger degree of randomness (increased variance). We argue that the key challenge raised by big data is not only how to use big data to tackle new problems, but to develop tools and methods able to rigorously articulate the new risks therein. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Investment Decisions with Two-Factor Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compernolle, T.; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter; Lavrutich, Maria; Nunes, Claudia; Thijssen, J.J.J.

    2018-01-01

    This paper considers investment problems in real options with non-homogeneous two-factor uncertainty. It shows that, despite claims made in the literature, the method used to derive an analytical solution in one dimensional problems cannot be straightforwardly extended to problems with two

  14. Microbially-Enhanced Redox Solution Reoxidation for Sour Natural Gas Sweetening

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kenneth Brezinsky

    2008-01-15

    The specific objective of this project are to advance the technology and improve the economics of the commercial iron-based chelate processes such as LO-CAT II and SulFerox process utilizing biologically enhanced reoxidation of the redox solutions used in these processes. The project is based on the use of chelated ferric iron as the catalyst for the production of elemental sulfur, and then oxidizing bacteria, such as Thiobacillus Ferrooxidans (ATCC 23270) as an oxidizer. The regeneration of Fe{sup 3+} - chelate is accomplished by the use of these same microbes under mild conditions at 25-30 C and at atmospheric pressure to minimize the chelate degradation process. The pH of the redox solution was observed to be a key process parameter. Other parameters such as temperature, total iron concentration, gas to liquid ratio and bacterial cell densities also influence the overall process. The second part of this project includes experimental data and a kinetic model of microbial H{sub 2}S removal from sour natural gas using thiobacillus species. In the experimental part, a series of experiments were conducted with a commercial chelated iron catalyst at pH ranges from 8.7 to 9.2 using a total iron concentration range from 925 ppm to 1050 ppm in the solution. Regeneration of the solution was carried out by passing air through the solution. Iron oxidizing bacteria were used at cell densities of 2.3 x 10{sup 7}cells/ml for optimum effective performance. In the modeling part, oxidation of Fe{sup 2+} ions by the iron oxidizing bacteria - Thiobacillus Ferrooxidans was studied for application to a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR). The factors that can directly affect the oxidation rate such as dilution rate, temperature, and pH were analyzed. The growth of the microorganism was assumed to follow Monod type of growth kinetics. Dilution rate had influence on the rate of oxidation of ferrous iron. Higher dilution rates caused washout of the biomass. The oxidation rate was

  15. Carbon economy of sour orange in response to different Glomus spp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, J. H.; Drouillard, D. L.; Hodge, N. C.

    1996-01-01

    Vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal (M) fungal colonization, growth, and nonstructural carbohydrate status of sour orange (Citrus aurantium L.) seedlings were compared at low- and high-phosphorus (P) supply following inoculation with four Glomus isolates: G. intraradices (Gi, FL208), G. etunicatum (Ge, UT316), G. claroideum (Gc, SC186), and Glomus sp. (G329, FL906). Nonmycorrhizal (NM) seedlings served as controls. At low-P supply, increases in incidence of M colonization, vesicles and accumulation of fungal fatty acid 16:1omega(5)C in roots were most rapid for G329-inoculated seedlings, followed closely by Gi- and Gc-inoculated seedlings. Glomus etunicatum was a less aggressive colonizer and produced lower rates of fungal fatty acid accumulation in seedling roots than the other Glomus species. Nonmycorrhizal and Ge-inoculated seedlings had lower P status and growth rates than seedlings inoculated with Gi or G329. Glomus claroideum increased seedling P status, but growth rate was lower than for seedlings colonized by Gi or G329, suggesting higher belowground costs for Gc colonization. In P-sufficient roots colonized by Gi, Gc, or G329, starch and ketone sugar concentrations were lower than in P-deficient NM and Ge-inoculated plants. Under conditions of high-P supply where mycorrhizae provided no P benefit to the seedlings, colonization by Gc, Gi, and G329 was delayed and reduced compared to that at low-P supply; however, the relative colonization rates among Glomus spp. were similar. Colonization by Ge was not detected in roots until 64 days after inoculation. Compared to NM seedlings, growth rates of mycorrhizal seedlings were reduced by the three aggressive fungi but not by the less aggressive Ge. After 64 days, starch and ketone sugar concentrations were lower in fibrous roots colonized by Gc, Gi, and G329 than in NM roots, indicating greater utilization of nonstructural carbohydrates in roots colonized by the aggressive fungi. After 49 days, colonization by the

  16. Uncertainty governance: an integrated framework for managing and communicating uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, H.; Naito, M.; Takase, H.

    2004-01-01

    Treatment of uncertainty, or in other words, reasoning with imperfect information is widely recognised as being of great importance within performance assessment (PA) of the geological disposal mainly because of the time scale of interest and spatial heterogeneity that geological environment exhibits. A wide range of formal methods have been proposed for the optimal processing of incomplete information. Many of these methods rely on the use of numerical information, the frequency based concept of probability in particular, to handle the imperfections. However, taking quantitative information as a base for models that solve the problem of handling imperfect information merely creates another problem, i.e., how to provide the quantitative information. In many situations this second problem proves more resistant to solution, and in recent years several authors have looked at a particularly ingenious way in accordance with the rules of well-founded methods such as Bayesian probability theory, possibility theory, and the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Those methods, while drawing inspiration from quantitative methods, do not require the kind of complete numerical information required by quantitative methods. Instead they provide information that, though less precise than that provided by quantitative techniques, is often, if not sufficient, the best that could be achieved. Rather than searching for the best method for handling all imperfect information, our strategy for uncertainty management, that is recognition and evaluation of uncertainties associated with PA followed by planning and implementation of measures to reduce them, is to use whichever method best fits the problem at hand. Such an eclectic position leads naturally to integration of the different formalisms. While uncertainty management based on the combination of semi-quantitative methods forms an important part of our framework for uncertainty governance, it only solves half of the problem

  17. Uncertainty in spatial planning proceedings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleš Mlakar

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty is distinctive of spatial planning as it arises from the necessity to co-ordinate the various interests within the area, from the urgency of adopting spatial planning decisions, the complexity of the environment, physical space and society, addressing the uncertainty of the future and from the uncertainty of actually making the right decision. Response to uncertainty is a series of measures that mitigate the effects of uncertainty itself. These measures are based on two fundamental principles – standardization and optimization. The measures are related to knowledge enhancement and spatial planning comprehension, in the legal regulation of changes, in the existence of spatial planning as a means of different interests co-ordination, in the active planning and the constructive resolution of current spatial problems, in the integration of spatial planning and the environmental protection process, in the implementation of the analysis as the foundation of spatial planners activities, in the methods of thinking outside the parameters, in forming clear spatial concepts and in creating a transparent management spatial system and also in the enforcement the participatory processes.

  18. Uncertainty modeling and decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yager, Ronald R.

    2004-01-01

    We first formulate the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The importance of the representation of our knowledge about the uncertainty in formulating a decision process is pointed out. We begin with a brief discussion of the case of probabilistic uncertainty. Next, in considerable detail, we discuss the case of decision making under ignorance. For this case the fundamental role of the attitude of the decision maker is noted and its subjective nature is emphasized. Next the case in which a Dempster-Shafer belief structure is used to model our knowledge of the uncertainty is considered. Here we also emphasize the subjective choices the decision maker must make in formulating a decision function. The case in which the uncertainty is represented by a fuzzy measure (monotonic set function) is then investigated. We then return to the Dempster-Shafer belief structure and show its relationship to the fuzzy measure. This relationship allows us to get a deeper understanding of the formulation the decision function used Dempster- Shafer framework. We discuss how this deeper understanding allows a decision analyst to better make the subjective choices needed in the formulation of the decision function

  19. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

  20. Effectiveness of managed populations of wild and honey bees as supplemental pollinators of sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L.) under different climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansted, Lise; Grout, Brian William Wilson; Toldam-Andersen, Torben Bo

    2015-01-01

    Managed populations of Apis mellifera, Bombus terrestris and Osmia have been investigated rufa as sour cherry pollinators in two flowering seasons with different weather patterns. Flight activity of the three bee species during the pollination-receptive period of the cultivar ‘Stevnsbaer’ was rec......Managed populations of Apis mellifera, Bombus terrestris and Osmia have been investigated rufa as sour cherry pollinators in two flowering seasons with different weather patterns. Flight activity of the three bee species during the pollination-receptive period of the cultivar ‘Stevnsbaer...

  1. Influence of the date of cut of rootstocks to the stub on growth of maider sour cherry trees cv. 'Łutówka'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanisław Wociór

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Over a three-year period (1997-1999 investigations were conducted on the effect of 6 date of cut to the stub on tree trunk diameter, height and branching of sour cherry maidens in the nursery.On the Prunus mahaleb seedling rootstock were found no significant influen ce of the date between January, 15 - March, 30 of cut to the stub on growth of sour cherry maidens cv. ´Łutówka' (tree trunk diameter and branching and efficiency of nursery. The date of cutting in 15 April decreased trunk diameter and percent of the first quality trees.

  2. Treatment of uncertainties in the geologic disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cranwell, R.M.

    1985-01-01

    Uncertainty in the analysis of geologic waste disposal is generally considered to have three primary components: (1) computer code/model uncertainty, (2) model parameter uncertainty, and (3) scenario uncertainty. Computer code/model uncertainty arises from problems associated with determination of appropriate parameters for use in model construction, mathematical formulatin of models, and numerical techniques used in conjunction with the mathematical formulation of models. Model parameter uncertainty arises from problems associated with selection of appropriate values for model input, data interpretation and possible misuse of data, and variation of data. Scenario uncertainty arises from problems associated with the ''completeness' of scenarios, the definition of parameters which describe scenarios, and the rate or probability of scenario occurrence. The preceding sources of uncertainty are discussed below

  3. Antifungal modes of action of Saccharomyces and other biocontrol yeasts against fungi isolated from sour and grey rots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nally, M C; Pesce, V M; Maturano, Y P; Rodriguez Assaf, L A; Toro, M E; Castellanos de Figueroa, L I; Vazquez, F

    2015-07-02

    The aim of this study was to determine the putative modes of action of 59 viticultural yeasts (31 Saccharomyces and 28 non-Saccharomyces) that inhibited fungi isolated from sour and grey rot in grapes. Inhibition of fungal mycelial growth by metabolites, enzyme activities (laminarinases, chitinases), antifungal volatiles, competition for nutrients (siderophores, Niche Overlap Index (NOI)), inhibition of fungal spore germination and decreased germinal tube length and induction of resistance were assayed. Biofungicide yeasts were classified into "antifungal patterns", according to their mechanisms of action. Thirty isolates presented at least two of the mechanisms assayed. We propose that inhibition of fungal mycelial growth by metabolites, laminarinases, competition for nutrients, inhibition of fungal spore germination and decreased germinal tube length, and antifungal volatiles by Saccharomyces and non-Saccharomyces viticultural yeasts is used as putative biocontrol mechanisms against phytopathogenic fungi. Twenty-four different antifungal patterns were identified. Siderophore production (N)and a combination of siderophore production and NOI>0.92 (M)were the most frequent antifungal patterns observed in the biofungicide yeasts assayed. Elucidation of these mechanisms could be useful for optimization of an inoculum formulation, resulting in a more consistent control of grey and sour rot with Saccharomyces and non-Saccharomyces biocontrol yeasts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Characterization of Sugar and Polyphenolic Diversity in Floral Nectar of Different 'Oblačinska' Sour Cherry Clones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffa, Basem; Nedić, Nebojša M; Dabić Zagorac, Dragana Č; Tosti, Tomislav B; Gašić, Uroš M; Natić, Maja M; Fotirić Akšić, Milica M

    2017-09-01

    'Oblačinska' sour cherry, an autochthonous cultivar, is the most planted cultivar in Serbian orchards. Since fruit trees in temperate zone reward insects by producing nectar which 'quality' affects the efficiency of insect pollination, the aim of this study was analyzing of sugars and polyphenolics in floral nectar of 16 'Oblačinska' sour cherry clones with different yielding potential. The contents of sugars and sugar alcohols were analyzed by ion chromatography, while polyphenolic profile was established using liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry technique. Fourteen sugars and six sugar alcohols were detected in nectar samples and the most abundant were fructose, glucose, and sucrose. Eleven polyphenols were quantified using available standards, while another 17 were identified according to their exact masses and characteristic fragmentations. Among quantified polyphenols, rutin, naringenin, and chrysin were the most abundant in nectar. Principal component analysis showed that some polyphenol components (naringin, naringenin, and rutin) together with sugars had high impact of spatial distribution of nectar samples on score plot. © 2017 Wiley-VHCA AG, Zurich, Switzerland.

  5. Fruit Set of Several Sour Cherry Cultivars in Latvia Influenced by Weather Conditions Before and During Flowering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feldmane Daina

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Fruit set is a crucial stage in the process of yield formation, which is influenced by environmental factors, growing technologies and peculiarities of genotype. The aim of the study was to evaluate the quality of pollen (viability and germination capacity and the effect of weather before and during flowering on fruit set in sour cherry cultivars ‘Latvijas Zemais’, ‘Zentenes’, ‘Bulatnikovskaya’, and ‘Orlica’. The research was carried out in Institute of Horticulture (Latvia University of Agriculture in 2009-2016. Good pollen viability and germination was found for cultivars ‘Latvijas Zemais’ and ‘Bulatnikovskaya’. Negative effects of increasing air temperature (in the range of 7.7 to 17.5 °C and relative humidity (in the range of 51.4 to 88.5% was observed for all cultivars during flowering. The effects of diurnal temperature fluctuations, wind and the amount of days with precipitation differed depending on sour cherry cultivar.

  6. Instrument uncertainty predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-07-01

    The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

  7. Uncertainty vs. Information (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearing, Grey

    2017-04-01

    Information theory is the branch of logic that describes how rational epistemic states evolve in the presence of empirical data (Knuth, 2005), and any logic of science is incomplete without such a theory. Developing a formal philosophy of science that recognizes this fact results in essentially trivial solutions to several longstanding problems are generally considered intractable, including: • Alleviating the need for any likelihood function or error model. • Derivation of purely logical falsification criteria for hypothesis testing. • Specification of a general quantitative method for process-level model diagnostics. More generally, I make the following arguments: 1. Model evaluation should not proceed by quantifying and/or reducing error or uncertainty, and instead should be approached as a problem of ensuring that our models contain as much information as our experimental data. I propose that the latter is the only question a scientist actually has the ability to ask. 2. Instead of building geophysical models as solutions to differential equations that represent conservation laws, we should build models as maximum entropy distributions constrained by conservation symmetries. This will allow us to derive predictive probabilities directly from first principles. Knuth, K. H. (2005) 'Lattice duality: The origin of probability and entropy', Neurocomputing, 67, pp. 245-274.

  8. RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-06-17

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  9. Ruminations On NDA Measurement Uncertainty Compared TO DA Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-01-01

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  10. Microeconomic Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Indeterminacy

    OpenAIRE

    Fagnart, Jean-François; Pierrard, Olivier; Sneessens, Henri

    2005-01-01

    The paper proposes a stylized intertemporal macroeconomic model wherein the combination of decentralized trading and microeconomic uncertainty (taking the form of privately observed and uninsured idiosyncratic shocks) creates an information problem between agents and generates indeterminacy of the macroeconomic equilibrium. For a given value of the economic fundamentals, the economy admits a continuum of equilibria that can be indexed by the sales expectations of firms at the time of investme...

  11. Uncertainty analysis guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  12. Uncertainty analysis guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  13. Uncertainty and Cognitive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal eMushtaq

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.

  14. Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

    2016-12-01

    A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Risk, unexpected uncertainty, and estimation uncertainty: Bayesian learning in unstable settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elise Payzan-LeNestour

    Full Text Available Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating.

  16. DS02 uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.

    2005-01-01

    In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)

  17. The Effect of Green Tea versus Sour Tea on Insulin Resistance, Lipids Profiles and Oxidative Stress in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Randomized Clinical Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Mozaffari-Khosravi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: By decreasing oxidative stress and whereby decreasing insulin resistance, it may be possible to decrease complications of Diabetes Mellitus (DM. Green tea and sour tea contain phytochemicals which have anti-oxidative function. The aim of this study is to compare the effect of sour and green tea consumption on insulin resistance and oxidative stress in DM. Methods: This study is a randomized clinical trial in which 100 type 2 diabetes patients were randomly assigned into sour tea group (ST and green tea group (GT. The patients were instructed to drink 150ml sour tea and green tea infusion, respectively, three times a day for 4 weeks. Fasting blood sugar (FBS, fructosamine, lipid profiles, fasting blood insulin (FBI, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR; beta cell function (b%, insulin sensitivity (S% and malondialdehyde (MDA were monitored. Results: HDL-c significantly increased in both groups. The median of FBI in GT showed significant decrease (8.5 to 6.6 μIU/mL unlike the ST which showed significant increase (8.2 to 16.3 μIU/mL. The median of HOMA-IR after the intervention in GT showed lower levels than the ST (1.1 vs. 1.6, P=0.004. The median of b% only in ST showed significant increase from 38.2% at the baseline to 47.7% after the intervention. The mean of S% only in ST showed significant decrease after the intervention. Conclusion: This study shows that the use of 150 ml infusion of green tea or sour tea, three times a day for four weeks, has positive effect on insulin resistance and certain lipoproteins in type 2 DM. Trial Registration Number: IRCT201107317161N1

  18. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  19. Sketching Uncertainty into Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribicic, H; Waser, J; Gurbat, R; Sadransky, B; Groller, M E

    2012-12-01

    In a variety of application areas, the use of simulation steering in decision making is limited at best. Research focusing on this problem suggests that most user interfaces are too complex for the end user. Our goal is to let users create and investigate multiple, alternative scenarios without the need for special simulation expertise. To simplify the specification of parameters, we move from a traditional manipulation of numbers to a sketch-based input approach. Users steer both numeric parameters and parameters with a spatial correspondence by sketching a change onto the rendering. Special visualizations provide immediate visual feedback on how the sketches are transformed into boundary conditions of the simulation models. Since uncertainty with respect to many intertwined parameters plays an important role in planning, we also allow the user to intuitively setup complete value ranges, which are then automatically transformed into ensemble simulations. The interface and the underlying system were developed in collaboration with experts in the field of flood management. The real-world data they have provided has allowed us to construct scenarios used to evaluate the system. These were presented to a variety of flood response personnel, and their feedback is discussed in detail in the paper. The interface was found to be intuitive and relevant, although a certain amount of training might be necessary.

  20. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Kanal, LN

    1986-01-01

    How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.

  1. Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

    2015-04-01

    Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty

  2. Effects of Ultrasound Assistance on Dehydration Processes and Bioactive Component Retention of Osmo-Dried Sour Cherries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siucińska, Karolina; Mieszczakowska-Frąc, Monika; Połubok, Aleksandra; Konopacka, Dorota

    2016-07-01

    Despite having numerous health benefits, dried sour cherries have proven to be more acceptable to consumers when infused with sugar or other sweeteners to enhance their flavor, which, in turn, leads to serious anthocyanin losses. For this reason, a consideration was made for the application of ultrasound to accelerate solid gain and shorten drying time, thus favoring bioactive component retention. To determine the usefulness of ultrasound as a tool for sour cherry osmotic infusion enhancement, the effect of sonication time on dehydration effectiveness, as well as the stability of bioactive components during osmotic treatment and consecutive convective drying, was investigated. Fruits were osmo-dehydrated using a 60% sucrose solution for 120 min (40 °C), during which, ultrasound of 25 kHz (0.4 W/cm(2) ), was applied for 0, 30, 60, 90, and 120 min, after which, the fruits were convectively dried. In the range of the applied ultrasound energy no significant effect of sonication on mass transfer intensification was observed; moreover, longer acoustic treatment seemed to retard moisture removal during subsequent convective drying, which can be related to the breakdown of the parenchyma cell walls caused by the prolonged ultrasound (US) action. It was concluded that although US assistance could be considered neutral for bioactive component retention, excessive sonication time can lead to some anthocyanin deterioration. According to high-performance liquid chromatography analysis, the particular anthocyanin alterations, both during dehydration and final drying, occurred in a similar way. Sonication time prolongation caused approximately 10% more bioactive compound deterioration, than earlier, shorter trials. © 2016 Institute of Food Technologists®

  3. Cloning, Expression, and Characterization of Sorbitol Transporters from Developing Sour Cherry Fruit and Leaf Sink Tissues1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zhifang; Maurousset, Laurence; Lemoine, Remi; Yoo, Sang-Dong; van Nocker, Steven; Loescher, Wayne

    2003-01-01

    The acyclic polyol sorbitol is a primary photosynthetic product and the principal photosynthetic transport substance in many economically important members of the family Rosaceace (e.g. almond [Prunus dulcis (P. Mill.) D.A. Webber], apple [Malus pumila P. Mill.], cherry [Prunus spp.], peach [Prunus persica L. Batsch], and pear [Pyrus communis]). To understand key steps in long-distance transport and particularly partitioning and accumulation of sorbitol in sink tissues, we have cloned two sorbitol transporter genes (PcSOT1 and PcSOT2) from sour cherry (Prunus cerasus) fruit tissues that accumulate large quantities of sorbitol. Sorbitol uptake activities and other characteristics were measured by heterologous expression of PcSOT1 and PcSOT2 in yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae). Both genes encode proton-dependent, sorbitol-specific transporters with similar affinities (Km sorbitol of 0.81 mm for PcSOT1 and 0.64 mm for PcSOT2). Analyses of gene expression of these transporters, however, suggest different roles during leaf and fruit development. PcSOT1 is expressed throughout fruit development, but especially when growth and sorbitol accumulation rates are highest. In leaves, PcSOT1 expression is highest in young, expanding tissues, but substantially less in mature leaves. In contrast, PcSOT2 is mainly expressed only early in fruit development and not in leaves. Compositional analyses suggest that transport mediated by PcSOT1 and PcSOT2 plays a major role in sorbitol and dry matter accumulation in sour cherry fruits. Presence of these transporters and the high fruit sorbitol concentrations suggest that there is an apoplastic step during phloem unloading and accumulation in these sink tissues. Expression of PcSOT1 in young leaves before completion of the transition from sink to source is further evidence for a role in determining sink activity. PMID:12692316

  4. Key technologies for well drilling and completion in ultra-deep sour gas reservoirs, Yuanba Gasfield, Sichuan Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaxiang Xia

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Yuanba Gasfield is a large gas field discovered by Sinopec in the Sichuan Basin in recent years, and another main exploration area for natural gas reserves and production increase after the Puguang Gasfield. The ultra-deep sour gas reservoir in the Yuanba Gasfield is characterized by complicated geologic structure, deep reservoirs and complex drilled formation, especially in the continental deep strata which are highly abrasive with low ROP (rate of penetration and long drilling period. After many years of drilling practice and technical research, the following six key drilling and completion technologies for this type reservoir are established by introducing new tools and technologies, developing specialized drill bits and optimizing drilling design. They are: casing program optimization technology for ROP increasing and safe well completion; gas drilling technology for shallow continental strata and high-efficiency drilling technology for deep high-abrasion continental strata; drilling fluid support technologies of gas–liquid conversion, ultra-deep highly-deviated wells and horizontal-well lubrication and drag reduction, hole stability control and sour gas contamination prevention; well cementing technologies for gas medium, deep-well long cementing intervals and ultra-high pressure small space; horizontal-well trajectory control technologies for measuring instrument, downhole motor optimization and bottom hole assembly design; and liner completion modes and completion string optimization technologies suitable for this gas reservoir. Field application shows that these key technologies are contributive to ROP increase and efficiency improvement of 7000 m deep horizontal wells and to significant operational cycle shortening.

  5. Managing Innovation In View Of The Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Igorevich Mosalev

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Study of the problems of uncertainty in innovation is at present the most up to date. Approaches to its definition, arranged primarily on the assumption and include the known parameters, which essentially is a game approach to the assessment. Address specific issues of governance of innovation in accounting uncertainty still remains open and the most relevant, especially when the innovation represented by one of the drivers of growth of national economies. This paper presents a methodological approach to determining the degree of uncertainty and an approach to the management of innovation through a system of mathematical modeling on the criterion of gross errors.

  6. Believable statements of uncertainty and believable science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindstrom, R.M.

    2017-01-01

    Nearly 50 years ago, two landmark papers appeared that should have cured the problem of ambiguous uncertainty statements in published data. Eisenhart's paper in Science called for statistically meaningful numbers, and Currie's Analytical Chemistry paper revealed the wide range in common definitions of detection limit. Confusion and worse can result when uncertainties are misinterpreted or ignored. The recent stories of cold fusion, variable radioactive decay, and piezonuclear reactions provide cautionary examples in which prior probability has been neglected. We show examples from our laboratory and others to illustrate the fact that uncertainty depends on both statistical and scientific judgment. (author)

  7. Uncertainty analysis of the FRAP code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peck, S.O.

    1978-01-01

    A user oriented, automated uncertainty analysis capability has been built into the Fuel Rod Analysis Program (FRAP) code and has been applied to a pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel rod undergoing a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). The method of uncertainty analysis is the response surface method. The automated version significantly reduced the time required to complete the analysis and, at the same time, greatly increased the problem scope. Results of the analysis showed a significant difference in the total and relative contributions to the uncertainty of the response parameters between steady state and transient conditions

  8. Uncertainty of the calibration factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    According to present definitions, an error is the difference between a measured value and the ''true'' value. Thus an error has both a numerical value and a sign. In contrast, the uncertainly associated with a measurement is a parameter that characterizes the dispersion of the values ''that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand''. This parameter is normally an estimated standard deviation. An uncertainty, therefore, has no known sign and is usually assumed to be symmetrical. It is a measure of our lack of exact knowledge, after all recognized ''systematic'' effects have been eliminated by applying appropriate corrections. If errors were known exactly, the true value could be determined and there would be no problem left. In reality, errors are estimated in the best possible way and corrections made for them. Therefore, after application of all known corrections, errors need no further consideration (their expectation value being zero) and the only quantities of interest are uncertainties. 3 refs, 2 figs

  9. Visualizing Summary Statistics and Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Potter, K.

    2010-08-12

    The graphical depiction of uncertainty information is emerging as a problem of great importance. Scientific data sets are not considered complete without indications of error, accuracy, or levels of confidence. The visual portrayal of this information is a challenging task. This work takes inspiration from graphical data analysis to create visual representations that show not only the data value, but also important characteristics of the data including uncertainty. The canonical box plot is reexamined and a new hybrid summary plot is presented that incorporates a collection of descriptive statistics to highlight salient features of the data. Additionally, we present an extension of the summary plot to two dimensional distributions. Finally, a use-case of these new plots is presented, demonstrating their ability to present high-level overviews as well as detailed insight into the salient features of the underlying data distribution. © 2010 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Visualizing Summary Statistics and Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Potter, K.; Kniss, J.; Riesenfeld, R.; Johnson, C.R.

    2010-01-01

    The graphical depiction of uncertainty information is emerging as a problem of great importance. Scientific data sets are not considered complete without indications of error, accuracy, or levels of confidence. The visual portrayal of this information is a challenging task. This work takes inspiration from graphical data analysis to create visual representations that show not only the data value, but also important characteristics of the data including uncertainty. The canonical box plot is reexamined and a new hybrid summary plot is presented that incorporates a collection of descriptive statistics to highlight salient features of the data. Additionally, we present an extension of the summary plot to two dimensional distributions. Finally, a use-case of these new plots is presented, demonstrating their ability to present high-level overviews as well as detailed insight into the salient features of the underlying data distribution. © 2010 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in sampling based nuclear data uncertainty and sensitivity analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwermann, W.; Krzykacz-Hausmann, B.; Gallner, L.; Klein, M.; Pautz, A.; Velkov, K.

    2012-01-01

    Sampling based uncertainty and sensitivity analyses due to epistemic input uncertainties, i.e. to an incomplete knowledge of uncertain input parameters, can be performed with arbitrary application programs to solve the physical problem under consideration. For the description of steady-state particle transport, direct simulations of the microscopic processes with Monte Carlo codes are often used. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty, the aleatoric sampling uncertainty, which is due to the randomness of the simulation process performed by sampling, and which adds to the total combined output sampling uncertainty. So far, this aleatoric part of uncertainty is minimized by running a sufficiently large number of Monte Carlo histories for each sample calculation, thus making its impact negligible as compared to the impact from sampling the epistemic uncertainties. Obviously, this process may cause high computational costs. The present paper shows that in many applications reliable epistemic uncertainty results can also be obtained with substantially lower computational effort by performing and analyzing two appropriately generated series of samples with much smaller number of Monte Carlo histories each. The method is applied along with the nuclear data uncertainty and sensitivity code package XSUSA in combination with the Monte Carlo transport code KENO-Va to various critical assemblies and a full scale reactor calculation. It is shown that the proposed method yields output uncertainties and sensitivities equivalent to the traditional approach, with a high reduction of computing time by factors of the magnitude of 100. (authors)

  12. On treatment of uncertainty in system planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flage, R.; Aven, T.

    2009-01-01

    In system planning and operation considerable efforts and resources are spent to reduce uncertainties, as a part of project management, uncertainty management and safety management. The basic idea seems to be that uncertainties are purely negative and should be reduced. In this paper we challenge this way of thinking, using a common industry practice as an example. In accordance with this industry practice, three uncertainty interval categories are used: ±40% intervals for the feasibility phase, ±30% intervals for the concept development phase and ±20% intervals for the engineering phase. The problem is that such a regime could easily lead to a conservative management regime encouraging the use of existing methods and tools, as new activities and novel solutions and arrangements necessarily mean increased uncertainties. In the paper we suggest an alternative approach based on uncertainty and risk descriptions, but having no predefined uncertainty reduction structures. The approach makes use of risk assessments and economic optimisation tools such as the expected net present value, but acknowledges the need for broad risk management processes which extend beyond the analyses. Different concerns need to be balanced, including economic aspects, uncertainties and risk, and practicability

  13. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size

  14. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  15. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    Uncertainties of computer results are of primary interest in applications such as high-level waste (HLW) repository performance assessment in which experimental validation is not possible or practical. This work presents an alternate deterministic approach for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs required for conventional statistical analysis. 7 refs., 1 fig

  16. Uncertainty and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Depres, B.; Dossantos-Uzarralde, P.

    2009-01-01

    More than 150 researchers and engineers from universities and the industrial world met to discuss on the new methodologies developed around assessing uncertainty. About 20 papers were presented and the main topics were: methods to study the propagation of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis, nuclear data covariances or multi-parameter optimisation. This report gathers the contributions of CEA researchers and engineers

  17. Conditional uncertainty principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun

    2018-04-01

    We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.

  18. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  19. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  20. The impact of uncertainty on optimal emission policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botta, Nicola; Jansson, Patrik; Ionescu, Cezar

    2018-05-01

    We apply a computational framework for specifying and solving sequential decision problems to study the impact of three kinds of uncertainties on optimal emission policies in a stylized sequential emission problem.We find that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) have a greater impact on optimal policies than uncertainties about the availability of effective emission reduction technologies and uncertainties about the implications of trespassing critical cumulated emission thresholds. The results show that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) call for more precautionary policies. In other words, delaying emission reductions to the point in time when effective technologies will become available is suboptimal when these uncertainties are accounted for rigorously. By contrast, uncertainties about the implications of exceeding critical cumulated emission thresholds tend to make early emission reductions less rewarding.

  1. Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki

    2017-10-01

    A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.

  2. Verification of uncertainty budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.

    2005-01-01

    , and therefore it is essential that the applicability of the overall uncertainty budget to actual measurement results be verified on the basis of current experimental data. This should be carried out by replicate analysis of samples taken in accordance with the definition of the measurand, but representing...... the full range of matrices and concentrations for which the budget is assumed to be valid. In this way the assumptions made in the uncertainty budget can be experimentally verified, both as regards sources of variability that are assumed negligible, and dominant uncertainty components. Agreement between...

  3. Managing project risks and uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget, schedule and fit-for-purpose. Threat is used here as the collective for risks (quantifiable bad things that can happen and uncertainties (poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events. Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that (a project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks, (b while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control, managed execution and oversight are still the primary means to keeping within budget, on time and fit-for-purpose, (c improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus, effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics, and (d projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate, the scope of identified threats is too narrow, and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution. Almost by definition, what is poorly known is likely to cause problems. Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage, but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns. Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals. This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

  4. Evaluating prediction uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKay, M.D.

    1995-03-01

    The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

  5. Uncertainty in oil projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limperopoulos, G.J.

    1995-01-01

    This report presents an oil project valuation under uncertainty by means of two well-known financial techniques: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula. CAPM gives a linear positive relationship between expected rate of return and risk but does not take into consideration the aspect of flexibility which is crucial for an irreversible investment as an oil price is. Introduction of investment decision flexibility by using real options can increase the oil project value substantially. Some simple tests for the importance of uncertainty in stock market for oil investments are performed. Uncertainty in stock returns is correlated with aggregate product market uncertainty according to Pindyck (1991). The results of the tests are not satisfactory due to the short data series but introducing two other explanatory variables the interest rate and Gross Domestic Product make the situation better. 36 refs., 18 figs., 6 tabs

  6. Identification and communication of uncertainties of phenomenological models in PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.

    2001-11-01

    This report aims at presenting a view upon uncertainty analysis of phenomenological models with an emphasis on the identification and documentation of various types of uncertainties and assumptions in the modelling of the phenomena. In an uncertainty analysis, it is essential to include and document all unclear issues, in order to obtain a maximal coverage of unresolved issues. This holds independently on their nature or type of the issues. The classification of uncertainties is needed in the decomposition of the problem and it helps in the identification of means for uncertainty reduction. Further, an enhanced documentation serves to evaluate the applicability of the results to various risk-informed applications. (au)

  7. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  8. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

  9. Uncertainties and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

    2008-01-01

    Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

  10. Mechanics and uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lemaire, Maurice

    2014-01-01

    Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.

  11. Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ávalos, Eloy

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

  12. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-07-01

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

  13. Measurement Errors and Uncertainties Theory and Practice

    CERN Document Server

    Rabinovich, Semyon G

    2006-01-01

    Measurement Errors and Uncertainties addresses the most important problems that physicists and engineers encounter when estimating errors and uncertainty. Building from the fundamentals of measurement theory, the author develops the theory of accuracy of measurements and offers a wealth of practical recommendations and examples of applications. This new edition covers a wide range of subjects, including: - Basic concepts of metrology - Measuring instruments characterization, standardization and calibration -Estimation of errors and uncertainty of single and multiple measurements - Modern probability-based methods of estimating measurement uncertainty With this new edition, the author completes the development of the new theory of indirect measurements. This theory provides more accurate and efficient methods for processing indirect measurement data. It eliminates the need to calculate the correlation coefficient - a stumbling block in measurement data processing - and offers for the first time a way to obtain...

  14. Piezoelectric energy harvesting with parametric uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, S F; Friswell, M I; Adhikari, S

    2010-01-01

    The design and analysis of energy harvesting devices is becoming increasing important in recent years. Most of the literature has focused on the deterministic analysis of these systems and the problem of uncertain parameters has received less attention. Energy harvesting devices exhibit parametric uncertainty due to errors in measurement, errors in modelling and variability in the parameters during manufacture. This paper investigates the effect of parametric uncertainty in the mechanical system on the harvested power, and derives approximate explicit formulae for the optimal electrical parameters that maximize the mean harvested power. The maximum of the mean harvested power decreases with increasing uncertainty, and the optimal frequency at which the maximum mean power occurs shifts. The effect of the parameter variance on the optimal electrical time constant and optimal coupling coefficient are reported. Monte Carlo based simulation results are used to further analyse the system under parametric uncertainty

  15. Assessment of SFR Wire Wrap Simulation Uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delchini, Marc-Olivier G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Popov, Emilian L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Pointer, William David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Swiler, Laura P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-09-30

    Predictive modeling and simulation of nuclear reactor performance and fuel are challenging due to the large number of coupled physical phenomena that must be addressed. Models that will be used for design or operational decisions must be analyzed for uncertainty to ascertain impacts to safety or performance. Rigorous, structured uncertainty analyses are performed by characterizing the model’s input uncertainties and then propagating the uncertainties through the model to estimate output uncertainty. This project is part of the ongoing effort to assess modeling uncertainty in Nek5000 simulations of flow configurations relevant to the advanced reactor applications of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. Three geometries are under investigation in these preliminary assessments: a 3-D pipe, a 3-D 7-pin bundle, and a single pin from the Thermal-Hydraulic Out-of-Reactor Safety (THORS) facility. Initial efforts have focused on gaining an understanding of Nek5000 modeling options and integrating Nek5000 with Dakota. These tasks are being accomplished by demonstrating the use of Dakota to assess parametric uncertainties in a simple pipe flow problem. This problem is used to optimize performance of the uncertainty quantification strategy and to estimate computational requirements for assessments of complex geometries. A sensitivity analysis to three turbulent models was conducted for a turbulent flow in a single wire wrapped pin (THOR) geometry. Section 2 briefly describes the software tools used in this study and provides appropriate references. Section 3 presents the coupling interface between Dakota and a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code (Nek5000 or STARCCM+), with details on the workflow, the scripts used for setting up the run, and the scripts used for post-processing the output files. In Section 4, the meshing methods used to generate the THORS and 7-pin bundle meshes are explained. Sections 5, 6 and 7 present numerical results

  16. Strategic conservation of orchard germplasm based on indigenous knowledge and genetic diversity: a case study of sour orange populations in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ming, Feng; Liu, Qi-Kun; Shi, Jin-Lei; Wang, Wei; Lu, Bao-Rong

    2009-01-01

    To effectively conserve sour orange (Citrus aurantium L.) germplasm on two islands at the estuary of the Yangtze River in China, we estimated genetic variation and relationships of the known parental trees and their proposed descendents (young trees) using the fingerprints of random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD). Results based on RAPD analyses showed considerable genetic diversity in the parental populations (H(e)=0.202). The overall populations including the parental and young trees showed slightly higher genetic diversity (H(e)=0.298) than the parents, with about 10% variation between populations. An unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean analysis dendrogram based on cluster analysis of the Jaccard similarity among individuals demonstrated a more complicated relationship of the parental and young trees from the two islands, although the young trees showed a clear association with parental trees. This indicates a significant contribution of parental trees in establishing the sour orange populations on the two islands. According to farmers' knowledge, conservation of only one or two parental trees would be sufficient because they believed that the whole populations were generated from a single mother tree. However, this study suggests that preserving most parental trees and some selected young trees with distant genetic relationships should be an effective conservation strategy for sour orange germplasm on the two islands.

  17. Justification for recommended uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pronyaev, V.G.; Badikov, S.A.; Carlson, A.D.

    2007-01-01

    The uncertainties obtained in an earlier standards evaluation were considered to be unrealistically low by experts of the US Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). Therefore, the CSEWG Standards Subcommittee replaced the covariance matrices of evaluated uncertainties by expanded percentage errors that were assigned to the data over wide energy groups. There are a number of reasons that might lead to low uncertainties of the evaluated data: Underestimation of the correlations existing between the results of different measurements; The presence of unrecognized systematic uncertainties in the experimental data can lead to biases in the evaluated data as well as to underestimations of the resulting uncertainties; Uncertainties for correlated data cannot only be characterized by percentage uncertainties or variances. Covariances between evaluated value at 0.2 MeV and other points obtained in model (RAC R matrix and PADE2 analytical expansion) and non-model (GMA) fits of the 6 Li(n,t) TEST1 data and the correlation coefficients are presented and covariances between the evaluated value at 0.045 MeV and other points (along the line or column of the matrix) as obtained in EDA and RAC R matrix fits of the data available for reactions that pass through the formation of the 7 Li system are discussed. The GMA fit with the GMA database is shown for comparison. The following diagrams are discussed: Percentage uncertainties of the evaluated cross section for the 6 Li(n,t) reaction and the for the 235 U(n,f) reaction; estimation given by CSEWG experts; GMA result with full GMA database, including experimental data for the 6 Li(n,t), 6 Li(n,n) and 6 Li(n,total) reactions; uncertainties in the GMA combined fit for the standards; EDA and RAC R matrix results, respectively. Uncertainties of absolute and 252 Cf fission spectrum averaged cross section measurements, and deviations between measured and evaluated values for 235 U(n,f) cross-sections in the neutron energy range 1

  18. Image restoration, uncertainty, and information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, F T

    1969-01-01

    Some of the physical interpretations about image restoration are discussed. From the theory of information the unrealizability of an inverse filter can be explained by degradation of information, which is due to distortion on the recorded image. The image restoration is a time and space problem, which can be recognized from the theory of relativity (the problem of image restoration is related to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics). A detailed discussion of the relationship between information and energy is given. Two general results may be stated: (1) the restoration of the image from the distorted signal is possible only if it satisfies the detectability condition. However, the restored image, at the best, can only approach to the maximum allowable time criterion. (2) The restoration of an image by superimposing the distorted signal (due to smearing) is a physically unrealizable method. However, this restoration procedure may be achieved by the expenditure of an infinite amount of energy.

  19. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, M.

    1996-09-01

    In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

  20. Morphometry, floral resources and efficiency of natural and artificial pollination in fruit quality in cultivars of sour passion fruit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laís Alves Lage

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This study aimed to provide information on the biology and floral resources, stigmatic receptivity and viability of pollen grains during rainy season and dry season, and to evaluate the efficiency of natural and artificial pollination on quality of fruits of eight passion fruit cultivars sourced in Tangará da Serra - MT. Five commercial cultivars and three populations of the genetic improvement program of the sour passion fruit from the Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso were evaluated. The climatic conditions of the rainy season favored the greater development of the floral pieces. The sugar concentration in the nectar presented higher averages in the rainy season, in all cultivars, except for FB 200. The climatic conditions of the dry season favored the replacement of the nectar volume. All cultivars evaluated presented pollen viability and stigmatic receptivity higher than 79% and 90%, respectively. The characteristics of fruit mass and percentage of pulp were better in artificial pollination, and the fruits obtained from natural and artificial pollination in all cultivars evaluated presented physical and chemical characteristics that are within the quality standards desired in the commercialization.

  1. Developing remediation criteria on the basis of health and ecological risks at a former sour gas plant site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, G. L.; Wilson, R. M.; Clyde, G. A.; Chollak, D. F.

    1997-01-01

    A human health and ecological risk assessment was completed for the Okotoks sour gas processing gas plant, based on the existing environmental sampling and toxicity testing that has been collected at the site since 1987. For the human health risk assessment, two potential scenarios were considered, including industrial use and parkland use. The ecological risk assessment involved synthesis of existing sampling and toxicity testing results as well as the assessment of potential risk to ecological receptors such as the meadow vole, red-tailed hawk and cattle. The assessment included chemical screening, receptor and exposure pathway selection, toxicity assessment of chemicals of concern, estimation of exposures, risk characterization and generation of soil and groundwater remediation criteria. Results of the assessments to date indicate that limited subsurface remediation is required for the protection of human health under industrial/parkland use. In contrast, ecological considerations will require remediation or reclamation of surface soil and the imposition of certain risk management controls, such as e. g. encumbrances on land title. 2 figs

  2. The importance of bee pollination of the sour cherry (Prunus cerasus Cultivar ‘Stevnsbaer’ in Denmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lise Hansted

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Low fruit set, despite normally-developed flowers, is often a significant contributor to poor yield of the self-fertile sour cherry (Prunus cerasus cultivar ‘Stevnsbaer’ in Denmark. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of insect, and particularly, bee pollination on the fruit set of this cultivar, in order to provide orchard management information for both Danish ‘Stevnsbaer’ growers and beekeepers. Visits to cherry flowers by honey bees (Apis mellifera, Bombus species and solitary bees, were recorded during the flowering of ‘Stevnsbaer’ in five separate Danish orchards. The results indicate that there is a significantly higher fruit set on open pollinated branches when compared to caged branches, where bees and other pollinating insects where excluded. The results were qualitatively consistent over three different seasons (2007, 2009 and 2010. A period of prolonged cold, humid weather before and during early flowering probably reduced fruit set significantly in 2010 compared to 2009. Regarding the apparent benefits of bee pollination on fruit set and subsequent implications for yield, we recommend placing honeybees in ‘Stevnsbaer’ orchards during flowering to sustain commercially viable production. Another valuable management strategy would be to improve foraging and nesting conditions to support both honey and wild bees in and around the orchards.

  3. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.

    1996-09-01

    In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

  4. Uncertainty quantification in wind farm flow models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo

    uncertainties through a model chain are presented and applied to several wind energy related problems such as: annual energy production estimation, wind turbine power curve estimation, wake model calibration and validation, and estimation of lifetime equivalent fatigue loads on a wind turbine. Statistical...

  5. Decision-making under risk and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatev, G.I.

    2006-01-01

    Fuzzy sets and interval analysis tools to make computations and solve optimisation problems are presented. Fuzzy and interval extensions of Decision Theory criteria for decision-making under parametric uncertainty of prior information (probabilities, payoffs) are developed. An interval probability approach to the mean-value criterion is proposed. (author)

  6. Uncertainty analysis of dosimetry spectrum unfolding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perey, F.G.

    1977-01-01

    The propagation of uncertainties in the input data is analyzed for the usual dosimetry unfolding solution. A new formulation of the dosimetry unfolding problem is proposed in which the most likely value of the spectrum is obtained. The relationship of this solution to the usual one is discussed

  7. Expanding Uncertainty Principle to Certainty-Uncertainty Principles with Neutrosophy and Quad-stage Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu Yuhua

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most famous contribution of Heisenberg is uncertainty principle. But the original uncertainty principle is improper. Considering all the possible situations (including the case that people can create laws and applying Neutrosophy and Quad-stage Method, this paper presents "certainty-uncertainty principles" with general form and variable dimension fractal form. According to the classification of Neutrosophy, "certainty-uncertainty principles" can be divided into three principles in different conditions: "certainty principle", namely a particle’s position and momentum can be known simultaneously; "uncertainty principle", namely a particle’s position and momentum cannot be known simultaneously; and neutral (fuzzy "indeterminacy principle", namely whether or not a particle’s position and momentum can be known simultaneously is undetermined. The special cases of "certain ty-uncertainty principles" include the original uncertainty principle and Ozawa inequality. In addition, in accordance with the original uncertainty principle, discussing high-speed particle’s speed and track with Newton mechanics is unreasonable; but according to "certaintyuncertainty principles", Newton mechanics can be used to discuss the problem of gravitational defection of a photon orbit around the Sun (it gives the same result of deflection angle as given by general relativity. Finally, for the reason that in physics the principles, laws and the like that are regardless of the principle (law of conservation of energy may be invalid; therefore "certaintyuncertainty principles" should be restricted (or constrained by principle (law of conservation of energy, and thus it can satisfy the principle (law of conservation of energy.

  8. Dealing with exploration uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capen, E.

    1992-01-01

    Exploration for oil and gas should fulfill the most adventurous in their quest for excitement and surprise. This paper tries to cover that tall order. The authors will touch on the magnitude of the uncertainty (which is far greater than in most other businesses), the effects of not knowing target sizes very well, how to build uncertainty into analyses naturally, how to tie reserves and chance estimates to economics, and how to look at the portfolio effect of an exploration program. With no apologies, the authors will be using a different language for some readers - the language of uncertainty, which means probability and statistics. These tools allow one to combine largely subjective exploration information with the more analytical data from the engineering and economic side

  9. Some sources of the underestimation of evaluated cross section uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badikov, S.A.; Gai, E.V.

    2003-01-01

    The problem of the underestimation of evaluated cross-section uncertainties is addressed. Two basic sources of the underestimation of evaluated cross-section uncertainties - a) inconsistency between declared and observable experimental uncertainties and b) inadequacy between applied statistical models and processed experimental data - are considered. Both the sources of the underestimation are mainly a consequence of existence of the uncertainties unrecognized by experimenters. A model of a 'constant shift' is proposed for taking unrecognised experimental uncertainties into account. The model is applied for statistical analysis of the 238 U(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) reaction cross-section ratio measurements. It is demonstrated that multiplication by sqrt(χ 2 ) as instrument for correction of underestimated evaluated cross-section uncertainties fails in case of correlated measurements. It is shown that arbitrary assignment of uncertainties and correlation in a simple least squares fit of two correlated measurements of unknown mean leads to physically incorrect evaluated results. (author)

  10. ICYESS 2013: Understanding and Interpreting Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauser, F.; Niederdrenk, L.; Schemann, V.; Schmidt, A.; Suesser, D.; Sonntag, S.

    2013-12-01

    We will report the outcomes and highlights of the Interdisciplinary Conference of Young Earth System Scientists (ICYESS) on Understanding and Interpreting Uncertainty in September 2013, Hamburg, Germany. This conference is aimed at early career scientists (Masters to Postdocs) from a large variety of scientific disciplines and backgrounds (natural, social and political sciences) and will enable 3 days of discussions on a variety of uncertainty-related aspects: 1) How do we deal with implicit and explicit uncertainty in our daily scientific work? What is uncertain for us, and for which reasons? 2) How can we communicate these uncertainties to other disciplines? E.g., is uncertainty in cloud parameterization and respectively equilibrium climate sensitivity a concept that is understood equally well in natural and social sciences that deal with Earth System questions? Or vice versa, is, e.g., normative uncertainty as in choosing a discount rate relevant for natural scientists? How can those uncertainties be reconciled? 3) How can science communicate this uncertainty to the public? Is it useful at all? How are the different possible measures of uncertainty understood in different realms of public discourse? Basically, we want to learn from all disciplines that work together in the broad Earth System Science community how to understand and interpret uncertainty - and then transfer this understanding to the problem of how to communicate with the public, or its different layers / agents. ICYESS is structured in a way that participation is only possible via presentation, so every participant will give their own professional input into how the respective disciplines deal with uncertainty. Additionally, a large focus is put onto communication techniques; there are no 'standard presentations' in ICYESS. Keynote lectures by renowned scientists and discussions will lead to a deeper interdisciplinary understanding of what we do not really know, and how to deal with it. Many

  11. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Levitt, TS; Lemmer, JF; Shachter, RD

    1990-01-01

    Clearly illustrated in this volume is the current relationship between Uncertainty and AI.It has been said that research in AI revolves around five basic questions asked relative to some particular domain: What knowledge is required? How can this knowledge be acquired? How can it be represented in a system? How should this knowledge be manipulated in order to provide intelligent behavior? How can the behavior be explained? In this volume, all of these questions are addressed. From the perspective of the relationship of uncertainty to the basic questions of AI, the book divides naturally i

  12. Growth and survival of Bacillus cereus in mageu, a sour maize beverage

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Byaruhanga, YB

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available health problem in devel- oping countries particularly among infants and chil- dren. It is estimated that about 70% of the episodes of diarrhoeal diseases are foodborne in origin, resulting from food contaminated by dirty utensils, poor pro- cessing... and extent of the contamination as well as the storage conditions. The eC128ects of the resulting hazard can be more serious among infants when mageu is used as a weaning food. Such recontamination is important to mageu because it is consumed without any heat...

  13. Biocompetitive exclusion technology: A field system to control reservoir souring and increasing production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandbeck, K.A.; Hitzman, D.O.

    1995-12-31

    Biogenic formation of sulfide in reservoirs by Sulfate Reducing Bacteria (SRB) causes serious plugging, corrosion, and environmental safety problems. The production of sulfide can be decreased, and its concentration reduced, by the establishment and growth of an indigenous microbial population which results in a replacement of the SRB population. This approach to modify the reservoir ecology utilizing preexisting carbon sources coupled with the introduction of an alternate electron acceptor forms the basis of a new Biocompetitive Exclusion technology which has the potential to enhance oil recovery and decrease paraffin deposition and corrosion. Preliminary field results from an ongoing DOE-sponsored research program will be discussed.

  14. Uncertainty evaluation of a modified elimination weighing for source preparation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cacais, F.L.; Loayza, V.M., E-mail: facacais@gmail.com [Instituto Nacional de Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia, (INMETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Delgado, J.U. [Instituto de Radioproteção e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Metrologia das Radiações Ionizantes

    2017-07-01

    Some modification in elimination weighing method for radioactive source allowed correcting weighing results without non-linearity problems assign a uncertainty contribution for the correction of the same order of the mass of drop uncertainty and check weighing variability in series source preparation. This analysis has focused in knowing the achievable weighing accuracy and the uncertainty estimated by Monte Carlo method for a mass of a 20 mg drop was at maximum of 0.06%. (author)

  15. Uncertainty Propagation in Monte Carlo Depletion Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shim, Hyung Jin; Kim, Yeong-il; Park, Ho Jin; Joo, Han Gyu; Kim, Chang Hyo

    2008-01-01

    A new formulation aimed at quantifying uncertainties of Monte Carlo (MC) tallies such as k eff and the microscopic reaction rates of nuclides and nuclide number densities in MC depletion analysis and examining their propagation behaviour as a function of depletion time step (DTS) is presented. It is shown that the variance of a given MC tally used as a measure of its uncertainty in this formulation arises from four sources; the statistical uncertainty of the MC tally, uncertainties of microscopic cross sections and nuclide number densities, and the cross correlations between them and the contribution of the latter three sources can be determined by computing the correlation coefficients between the uncertain variables. It is also shown that the variance of any given nuclide number density at the end of each DTS stems from uncertainties of the nuclide number densities (NND) and microscopic reaction rates (MRR) of nuclides at the beginning of each DTS and they are determined by computing correlation coefficients between these two uncertain variables. To test the viability of the formulation, we conducted MC depletion analysis for two sample depletion problems involving a simplified 7x7 fuel assembly (FA) and a 17x17 PWR FA, determined number densities of uranium and plutonium isotopes and their variances as well as k ∞ and its variance as a function of DTS, and demonstrated the applicability of the new formulation for uncertainty propagation analysis that need be followed in MC depletion computations. (authors)

  16. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

  17. Development of Evaluation Code for MUF Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Won, Byung Hee; Han, Bo Young; Shin, Hee Sung; Ahn, Seong-Kyu; Park, Geun-Il; Park, Se Hwan

    2015-01-01

    Material Unaccounted For (MUF) is the material balance evaluated by measured nuclear material in a Material Balance Area (MBA). Assuming perfect measurements and no diversion from a facility, one can expect a zero MUF. However, non-zero MUF is always occurred because of measurement uncertainty even though the facility is under normal operation condition. Furthermore, there are many measurements using different equipment at various Key Measurement Points (KMPs), and the MUF uncertainty is affected by errors of those measurements. Evaluating MUF uncertainty is essentially required to develop safeguards system including nuclear measurement system in pyroprocessing, which is being developed for reducing radioactive waste from spent fuel in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The evaluation code for analyzing MUF uncertainty has been developed and it was verified using sample problem from the IAEA reference. MUF uncertainty can be simply and quickly calculated by using this evaluation code which is made based on graphical user interface for user friendly. It is also expected that the code will make the sensitivity analysis on the MUF uncertainty for the various safeguards systems easy and more systematic. It is suitable for users who want to evaluate the conventional safeguards system as well as to develop a new system for developing facilities

  18. Development of Evaluation Code for MUF Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Won, Byung Hee; Han, Bo Young; Shin, Hee Sung; Ahn, Seong-Kyu; Park, Geun-Il; Park, Se Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Material Unaccounted For (MUF) is the material balance evaluated by measured nuclear material in a Material Balance Area (MBA). Assuming perfect measurements and no diversion from a facility, one can expect a zero MUF. However, non-zero MUF is always occurred because of measurement uncertainty even though the facility is under normal operation condition. Furthermore, there are many measurements using different equipment at various Key Measurement Points (KMPs), and the MUF uncertainty is affected by errors of those measurements. Evaluating MUF uncertainty is essentially required to develop safeguards system including nuclear measurement system in pyroprocessing, which is being developed for reducing radioactive waste from spent fuel in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The evaluation code for analyzing MUF uncertainty has been developed and it was verified using sample problem from the IAEA reference. MUF uncertainty can be simply and quickly calculated by using this evaluation code which is made based on graphical user interface for user friendly. It is also expected that the code will make the sensitivity analysis on the MUF uncertainty for the various safeguards systems easy and more systematic. It is suitable for users who want to evaluate the conventional safeguards system as well as to develop a new system for developing facilities.

  19. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  20. Uncertainties and reliability theories for reactor safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veneziano, D.

    1975-01-01

    What makes the safety problem of nuclear reactors particularly challenging is the demand for high levels of reliability and the limitation of statistical information. The latter is an unfortunate circumstance, which forces deductive theories of reliability to use models and parameter values with weak factual support. The uncertainty about probabilistic models and parameters which are inferred from limited statistical evidence can be quantified and incorporated rationally into inductive theories of reliability. In such theories, the starting point is the information actually available, as opposed to an estimated probabilistic model. But, while the necessity of introducing inductive uncertainty into reliability theories has been recognized by many authors, no satisfactory inductive theory is presently available. The paper presents: a classification of uncertainties and of reliability models for reactor safety; a general methodology to include these uncertainties into reliability analysis; a discussion about the relative advantages and the limitations of various reliability theories (specifically, of inductive and deductive, parametric and nonparametric, second-moment and full-distribution theories). For example, it is shown that second-moment theories, which were originally suggested to cope with the scarcity of data, and which have been proposed recently for the safety analysis of secondary containment vessels, are the least capable of incorporating statistical uncertainty. The focus is on reliability models for external threats (seismic accelerations and tornadoes). As an application example, the effect of statistical uncertainty on seismic risk is studied using parametric full-distribution models

  1. Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quick, Julian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Annoni, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); King, Ryan N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dykes, Katherine L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Fleming, Paul A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ning, Andrew [Brigham Young University

    2017-08-03

    Offsetting turbines' yaw orientations from incoming wind is a powerful tool that may be leveraged to reduce undesirable wake effects on downstream turbines. First, we examine a simple two-turbine case to gain intuition as to how inflow direction uncertainty affects the optimal solution. The turbines are modeled with unidirectional inflow such that one turbine directly wakes the other, using ten rotor diameter spacing. We perform optimization under uncertainty (OUU) via a parameter sweep of the front turbine. The OUU solution generally prefers less steering. We then do this optimization for a 60-turbine wind farm with unidirectional inflow, varying the degree of inflow uncertainty and approaching this OUU problem by nesting a polynomial chaos expansion uncertainty quantification routine within an outer optimization. We examined how different levels of uncertainty in the inflow direction effect the ratio of the expected values of deterministic and OUU solutions for steering strategies in the large wind farm, assuming the directional uncertainty used to reach said OUU solution (this ratio is defined as the value of the stochastic solution or VSS).

  2. Not Normal: the uncertainties of scientific measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, David C.

    2017-01-01

    Judging the significance and reproducibility of quantitative research requires a good understanding of relevant uncertainties, but it is often unclear how well these have been evaluated and what they imply. Reported scientific uncertainties were studied by analysing 41 000 measurements of 3200 quantities from medicine, nuclear and particle physics, and interlaboratory comparisons ranging from chemistry to toxicology. Outliers are common, with 5σ disagreements up to five orders of magnitude more frequent than naively expected. Uncertainty-normalized differences between multiple measurements of the same quantity are consistent with heavy-tailed Student's t-distributions that are often almost Cauchy, far from a Gaussian Normal bell curve. Medical research uncertainties are generally as well evaluated as those in physics, but physics uncertainty improves more rapidly, making feasible simple significance criteria such as the 5σ discovery convention in particle physics. Contributions to measurement uncertainty from mistakes and unknown problems are not completely unpredictable. Such errors appear to have power-law distributions consistent with how designed complex systems fail, and how unknown systematic errors are constrained by researchers. This better understanding may help improve analysis and meta-analysis of data, and help scientists and the public have more realistic expectations of what scientific results imply.

  3. Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin Coppersmith

    2001-01-01

    The DOE identified a variety of uncertainties, arising from different sources, during its assessment of the performance of a potential geologic repository at the Yucca Mountain site. In general, the number and detail of process models developed for the Yucca Mountain site, and the complex coupling among those models, make the direct incorporation of all uncertainties difficult. The DOE has addressed these issues in a number of ways using an approach to uncertainties that is focused on producing a defensible evaluation of the performance of a potential repository. The treatment of uncertainties oriented toward defensible assessments has led to analyses and models with so-called ''conservative'' assumptions and parameter bounds, where conservative implies lower performance than might be demonstrated with a more realistic representation. The varying maturity of the analyses and models, and uneven level of data availability, result in total system level analyses with a mix of realistic and conservative estimates (for both probabilistic representations and single values). That is, some inputs have realistically represented uncertainties, and others are conservatively estimated or bounded. However, this approach is consistent with the ''reasonable assurance'' approach to compliance demonstration, which was called for in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) proposed 10 CFR Part 63 regulation (64 FR 8640 [DIRS 101680]). A risk analysis that includes conservatism in the inputs will result in conservative risk estimates. Therefore, the approach taken for the Total System Performance Assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) provides a reasonable representation of processes and conservatism for purposes of site recommendation. However, mixing unknown degrees of conservatism in models and parameter representations reduces the transparency of the analysis and makes the development of coherent and consistent probability statements about projected repository

  4. Uncertainty in reactive transport geochemical modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oedegaard-Jensen, A.; Ekberg, C.

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Geochemical modelling is one way of predicting the transport of i.e. radionuclides in a rock formation. In a rock formation there will be fractures in which water and dissolved species can be transported. The composition of the water and the rock can either increase or decrease the mobility of the transported entities. When doing simulations on the mobility or transport of different species one has to know the exact water composition, the exact flow rates in the fracture and in the surrounding rock, the porosity and which minerals the rock is composed of. The problem with simulations on rocks is that the rock itself it not uniform i.e. larger fractures in some areas and smaller in other areas which can give different water flows. The rock composition can be different in different areas. In additions to this variance in the rock there are also problems with measuring the physical parameters used in a simulation. All measurements will perturb the rock and this perturbation will results in more or less correct values of the interesting parameters. The analytical methods used are also encumbered with uncertainties which in this case are added to the uncertainty from the perturbation of the analysed parameters. When doing simulation the effect of the uncertainties must be taken into account. As the computers are getting faster and faster the complexity of simulated systems are increased which also increase the uncertainty in the results from the simulations. In this paper we will show how the uncertainty in the different parameters will effect the solubility and mobility of different species. Small uncertainties in the input parameters can result in large uncertainties in the end. (authors)

  5. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-12-31

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling.

  7. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-01-01

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling

  8. Summary from the epistemic uncertainty workshop: consensus amid diversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferson, Scott; Joslyn, Cliff A.; Helton, Jon C.; Oberkampf, William L.; Sentz, Kari

    2004-01-01

    The 'Epistemic Uncertainty Workshop' sponsored by Sandia National Laboratories was held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on 6-7 August 2002. The workshop was organized around a set of Challenge Problems involving both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty that the workshop participants were invited to solve and discuss. This concluding article in a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety based on the workshop discusses the intent of the Challenge Problems, summarizes some discussions from the workshop, and provides a technical comparison among the papers in this special issue. The Challenge Problems were computationally simple models that were intended as vehicles for the illustration and comparison of conceptual and numerical techniques for use in analyses that involve: (i) epistemic uncertainty, (ii) aggregation of multiple characterizations of epistemic uncertainty, (iii) combination of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, and (iv) models with repeated parameters. There was considerable diversity of opinion at the workshop about both methods and fundamental issues, and yet substantial consensus about what the answers to the problems were, and even about how each of the four issues should be addressed. Among the technical approaches advanced were probability theory, Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, random sets, sets of probability measures, imprecise coherent probabilities, coherent lower previsions, probability boxes, possibility theory, fuzzy sets, joint distribution tableaux, polynomial chaos expansions, and info-gap models. Although some participants maintained that a purely probabilistic approach is fully capable of accounting for all forms of uncertainty, most agreed that the treatment of epistemic uncertainty introduces important considerations and that the issues underlying the Challenge Problems are legitimate and significant. Topics identified as meriting additional research include elicitation of uncertainty representations, aggregation of

  9. Strategy under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, H; Kirkland, J; Viguerie, P

    1997-01-01

    At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.

  10. Conquering complexity - Dealing with uncertainty and ambiguity in water management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, Saskia

    2008-01-01

    Water management problems are embedded in a natural and social system that is characterized by complexity. Knowledge uncertainty and the existence of divergent actors’ perceptions contribute to this complexity. Consequently, dealing with water management issues is not just a knowledge uncertainty

  11. Investments in technology subject to uncertainty. Analysis and policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jørgen Lindgaard

    1997-01-01

    Investments in technology are today of such a magnitude that it matters. In the paper there are three important questions. First on the question in which sense technological uncertainty can be said to be a problem. Second on strategies for diminishing technological uncertainties. Three on policy...

  12. Uncertainties in predicting solar panel power output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anspaugh, B.

    1974-01-01

    The problem of calculating solar panel power output at launch and during a space mission is considered. The major sources of uncertainty and error in predicting the post launch electrical performance of the panel are considered. A general discussion of error analysis is given. Examples of uncertainty calculations are included. A general method of calculating the effect on the panel of various degrading environments is presented, with references supplied for specific methods. A technique for sizing a solar panel for a required mission power profile is developed.

  13. Generalized Landau-Pollak uncertainty relation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyadera, Takayuki; Imai, Hideki

    2007-01-01

    The Landau-Pollak uncertainty relation treats a pair of rank one projection valued measures and imposes a restriction on their probability distributions. It gives a nontrivial bound for summation of their maximum values. We give a generalization of this bound (weak version of the Landau-Pollak uncertainty relation). Our generalization covers a pair of positive operator valued measures. A nontrivial but slightly weak inequality that can treat an arbitrary number of positive operator valued measures is also presented. A possible application to the problem of separability criterion is also suggested

  14. Uncertainty quantification and stochastic modeling with Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Souza de Cursi, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a relatively new research area which describes the methods and approaches used to supply quantitative descriptions of the effects of uncertainty, variability and errors in simulation problems and models. It is rapidly becoming a field of increasing importance, with many real-world applications within statistics, mathematics, probability and engineering, but also within the natural sciences. Literature on the topic has up until now been largely based on polynomial chaos, which raises difficulties when considering different types of approximation and does no

  15. Confronting uncertainty in wildlife management: performance of grizzly bear management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artelle, Kyle A; Anderson, Sean C; Cooper, Andrew B; Paquet, Paul C; Reynolds, John D; Darimont, Chris T

    2013-01-01

    Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone--discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels--led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years) examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty) revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty.

  16. Confronting uncertainty in wildlife management: performance of grizzly bear management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle A Artelle

    Full Text Available Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone--discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels--led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty.

  17. Decision 99-16: Canadian 88 Energy Corp. application to drill a level 4 critical sour gas well, Lochend Field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-07-01

    Canadian 88 Energy Corp. applied, pursuant to section 2.020 of the Oil and Gas Conservation Regulations, for a licence to drill a level 4 critical sour gas well to be located at Legal Subdivision 10 of Section 35, Township 26, Range 3, West of the fifth Meridian. The level 4 designation is used to determine the minimum separation distance between the well and land-use surface developments during the suspended or producing stage. This 10-35 well would require a minimum separation distance of 100 m from any individual dwelling development up to eight dwellings per quarter section, 500 m from an unrestricted county development, and 1500 m from an urban centre or public facility. The application and interventions were considered at a hearing in Calgary, Alberta commencing on 4 May 1998. The issues respecting the application were: the need for the well, the proposed well location, the potential hydrogen sulfide release rate, the drilling and completion considerations, the public safety risk assessment, emergency preparedness, the land use impacts, and public consultation. The Board believes that the public safety risks associated with the proposed well are representative of normal industrial risks accepted by society and that the well can be safely drilled. Also, the Board believes that these risks are similar to existing facilities and are acceptable if managed through strict adherence to the risk control measures required in the existing regulations. Given this, and having considered all the evidence, the Board is prepared to issue the well licence after Canadian 88 has undertaken, committed to, and submitted a number of requirements for review

  18. Decision 99-13: Crestar Energy Inc. applications to construct and operate sour gas batteries and pipelines, Vulcan Field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-06-01

    On 1 December 1998, the applicant applied pursuant to Part 4 of the Pipeline Act and Section 7.001 of the Oil and Gas Conservation Regulations for approval to construct and operate a sour gas pipeline and various surface facilities to tie in three wells. These are located at Legal Subdivision 12 of Section 36, Township 16, Range 24, West of the fourth Meridian (12-36 facility), Lsd 10-35-16-24 WM4 (10-35 facility), and Lsd 7-26-16-24 WM4 (7-26 facility), to an existing pipeline and proposed surface facility at Lsd 16-16-16-24 WM4. The 10-35, 7-26 and 16-16 facilities would each have a separator, a flare knockout drum, and a flare stack. The 12-36 facility would have two separators, one for each of the two producing zones at the 12-36 facility, a flare knockout drum, and flare stack. A compressor would be installed at the 16-16 facility. All fluids would be measured and re-injected into the pipeline for removal at the 16-16 facility. All proposed flare stacks would consists of a continuously burning sweet gas pilot and would be used for emergencies, routine well servicing, and pigging operations only. The pipeline would be designated as a Level 1 facility, and would transport up to 18 moles of hydrogen sulfide per kilomole of natural gas. Although the Board approved Application No. 1037084 after carefully considering the evidence, subject to meeting all the regulatory requirements and conditions set out in Attachment 1, it rejected Application No. 1033453

  19. HPLC and MS/MS study of polar contaminants in a wetland adjoining a sour-gas plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickson, L.C.; Headley, J.V.; Peru, K.; Spiegel, K.; Gandrass, J.

    1995-01-01

    An analytical methodology was developed for target analyses and broad spectrum characterization of polar contaminants such as nitrogenous and organosulfur compounds in wetlands using the complementary techniques of HPLC with electrochemical (EC) detection and tandem MS with probe and electrospray ionization. Tandem MS was well suited for the identification and quantification of mixtures of polar compounds in water samples and soil extracts, while HPLC-EC provided sensitive detection of compounds transparent to MS detection and conventional methods. The usefulness of the methodology is demonstrated by studying the removal of polar contaminants from a wetland in western Canada affected by releases of hydrocarbon-rich condensate and free product from an adjoining sour-gas plant. The concern is that the mobile water-soluble polar contaminants may not be as efficiently attenuated by volatilization or adsorption processes as the more hydrophobic hydrocarbons and that some of the polar toxic compounds may break through to contaminate groundwater and surface waters. Samples of groundwater, surface water, and aqueous soil extracts were analyzed to quantify levels of polar contaminants in the presence of high concentrations of hydrocarbons. The use of water extracts reduced the background interference from hydrocarbons and other non-polar compounds that were present in the soil samples. HPLC-EC was used to quantify the target compounds that included monoethanolamine, diethanolamine and methyldiethanolamine and sulfolane-derived compounds while tandem MS was used to identify related compounds and degradation products. Influent concentrations were in the ppm range and discharge concentrations were in the ppb range

  20. Promising sour cherry hybrids (Prunus cerasus L. developed at Fruit Research Institute Čačak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radičević Sanja

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available At Fruit Research Institute in Čačak, major objectives of the work on breeding new sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L. cultivars are high cropping, large, high-quality fruits and resistance to causal agents of diseases and pests. As a result of the planned hybridization, more than 10,000 hybrid seedlings have been developed from about 40 cultivars within more than 110 parental combinations, among which are 'Čačanski rubin' ('Shasse Morello' x 'Köröser Weichsel' and 'Šumadinka' ('Köröser Weichsel' x 'Heimanns Konserven Weichsel' which have been named and released. Ten-year study of 11 hybrids, selected from the population of about 3,000 hybrid seedlings, gave four hybrids which have been singled out as elite (III/23, III/31, II/40 i XII/57. These hybrids are currently under procedure of being released as new cultivars. The paper presents two-year results of the study of ripening time, pomological properties, biochemical composition of fruits, and field resistance to causal agents of diseases and pests attacking the above named genotypes which were compared to standard cultivar 'Heimanns Konserven Weichsel'. In the studied hybrids, fruit weight, soluble solids content and sugars content were higher than in standard cultivar. In addition, they exhibit substantial field resistance to causal agents of brown rot (Monilinia laxa /Ader et Ruhl./ Honey ex Whetz., cherry leaf spot (Blumeriella jaapii (Rehm. v. Arx., shot-hole (Clasterosporium carpophilum (Lév. Aderh. and cherry fruit fly (Rhagoletis cerasi L. attack.

  1. Implications of model uncertainty for the practice of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laskey, K.B.

    1994-01-01

    A model is a representation of a system that can be used to answer questions about the system's behavior. The term model uncertainty refers to problems in which there is no generally agreed upon, validated model that can be used as a surrogate for the system itself. Model uncertainty affects both the methodology appropriate for building models and how models should be used. This paper discusses representations of model uncertainty, methodologies for exercising and interpreting models in the presence of model uncertainty, and the appropriate use of fallible models for policy making

  2. Uncertainty Analysis of Consequence Management (CM) Data Products.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, Brian D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cochran, Lainy Dromgoole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kraus, Terrence D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fournier, Sean Donovan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Allen, Mark B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schetnan, Richard Reed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Simpson, Matthew D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Okada, Colin E. [Remote Sensing Lab. (RSL), Nellis AFB, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Bingham, Avery A. [Remote Sensing Lab. (RSL), Nellis AFB, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The goal of this project is to develop and execute methods for characterizing uncertainty in data products that are deve loped and distributed by the DOE Consequence Management (CM) Program. A global approach to this problem is necessary because multiple sources of error and uncertainty from across the CM skill sets contribute to the ultimate p roduction of CM data products. This report presents the methods used to develop a probabilistic framework to characterize this uncertainty and provides results for an uncertainty analysis for a study scenario analyzed using this framework.

  3. Assignment of uncertainties to scientific data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froehner, F.H.

    1994-01-01

    Long-standing problems of uncertainty assignment to scientific data came into a sharp focus in recent years when uncertainty information ('covariance files') had to be added to application-oriented large libraries of evaluated nuclear data such as ENDF and JEF. Question arouse about the best way to express uncertainties, the meaning of statistical and systematic errors, the origin of correlation and construction of covariance matrices, the combination of uncertain data from different sources, the general usefulness of results that are strictly valid only for Gaussian or only for linear statistical models, etc. Conventional statistical theory is often unable to give unambiguous answers, and tends to fail when statistics is bad so that prior information becomes crucial. Modern probability theory, on the other hand, incorporating decision information becomes group-theoretic results, is shown to provide straight and unique answers to such questions, and to deal easily with prior information and small samples. (author). 10 refs

  4. Assessing student understanding of measurement and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jirungnimitsakul, S.; Wattanakasiwich, P.

    2017-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop and assess student understanding of measurement and uncertainty. A test has been adapted and translated from the Laboratory Data Analysis Instrument (LDAI) test, consists of 25 questions focused on three topics including measures of central tendency, experimental errors and uncertainties, and fitting regression lines. The test was evaluated its content validity by three physics experts in teaching physics laboratory. In the pilot study, Thai LDAI was administered to 93 freshmen enrolled in a fundamental physics laboratory course. The final draft of the test was administered to three groups—45 freshmen taking fundamental physics laboratory, 16 sophomores taking intermediated physics laboratory and 21 juniors taking advanced physics laboratory at Chiang Mai University. As results, we found that the freshmen had difficulties in experimental errors and uncertainties. Most students had problems with fitting regression lines. These results will be used to improve teaching and learning physics laboratory for physics students in the department.

  5. Stochastic and epistemic uncertainty propagation in LCA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clavreul, Julie; Guyonnet, Dominique; Tonini, Davide

    2013-01-01

    of epistemic uncertainty representation using fuzzy intervals. The propagation methods used are the Monte Carlo analysis for probability distribution and an optimisation on alpha-cuts for fuzzy intervals. The proposed method (noted as Independent Random Set, IRS) generalizes the process of random sampling...... to probability distributions as well as fuzzy intervals, thus making the simultaneous use of both representations possible.The results highlight the fundamental difference between the probabilistic and possibilistic representations: while the Monte Carlo analysis generates a single probability distribution...... or expert judgement (epistemic uncertainty). The possibility theory has been developed over the last decades to address this problem. The objective of this study is to present a methodology that combines probability and possibility theories to represent stochastic and epistemic uncertainties in a consistent...

  6. Uncertainty in adaptive capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil Adger, W.; Vincent, K.

    2005-01-01

    The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. (authors)

  7. Uncertainties about climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laval, Katia; Laval, Guy

    2013-01-01

    Like meteorology, climatology is not an exact science: climate change forecasts necessarily include a share of uncertainty. It is precisely this uncertainty which is brandished and exploited by the opponents to the global warming theory to put into question the estimations of its future consequences. Is it legitimate to predict the future using the past climate data (well documented up to 100000 years BP) or the climates of other planets, taking into account the impreciseness of the measurements and the intrinsic complexity of the Earth's machinery? How is it possible to model a so huge and interwoven system for which any exact description has become impossible? Why water and precipitations play such an important role in local and global forecasts, and how should they be treated? This book written by two physicists answers with simpleness these delicate questions in order to give anyone the possibility to build his own opinion about global warming and the need to act rapidly

  8. The uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martens, Hans.

    1991-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is the uncertainty principle (UP). The UP is one of the most characteristic points of differences between quantum and classical mechanics. The starting point of this thesis is the work of Niels Bohr. Besides the discussion the work is also analyzed. For the discussion of the different aspects of the UP the formalism of Davies and Ludwig is used instead of the more commonly used formalism of Neumann and Dirac. (author). 214 refs.; 23 figs

  9. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

  10. Citizen Candidates Under Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Eguia, Jon X.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we make two contributions to the growing literature on "citizen-candidate" models of representative democracy. First, we add uncertainty about the total vote count. We show that in a society with a large electorate, where the outcome of the election is uncertain and where winning candidates receive a large reward from holding office, there will be a two-candidate equilibrium and no equilibria with a single candidate. Second, we introduce a new concept of equilibrium, which we te...

  11. Participation under Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudourides, Moses A.

    2003-01-01

    This essay reviews a number of theoretical perspectives about uncertainty and participation in the present-day knowledge-based society. After discussing the on-going reconfigurations of science, technology and society, we examine how appropriate for policy studies are various theories of social complexity. Post-normal science is such an example of a complexity-motivated approach, which justifies civic participation as a policy response to an increasing uncertainty. But there are different categories and models of uncertainties implying a variety of configurations of policy processes. A particular role in all of them is played by expertise whose democratization is an often-claimed imperative nowadays. Moreover, we discuss how different participatory arrangements are shaped into instruments of policy-making and framing regulatory processes. As participation necessitates and triggers deliberation, we proceed to examine the role and the barriers of deliberativeness. Finally, we conclude by referring to some critical views about the ultimate assumptions of recent European policy frameworks and the conceptions of civic participation and politicization that they invoke

  12. Uncertainty analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marivoet, J.; Saltelli, A.; Cadelli, N.

    1987-01-01

    The origin of the uncertainty affecting Performance Assessments, as well as their propagation to dose and risk results is discussed. The analysis is focused essentially on the uncertainties introduced by the input parameters, the values of which may range over some orders of magnitude and may be given as probability distribution function. The paper briefly reviews the existing sampling techniques used for Monte Carlo simulations and the methods for characterizing the output curves, determining their convergence and confidence limits. Annual doses, expectation values of the doses and risks are computed for a particular case of a possible repository in clay, in order to illustrate the significance of such output characteristics as the mean, the logarithmic mean and the median as well as their ratios. The report concludes that provisionally, due to its better robustness, such estimation as the 90th percentile may be substituted to the arithmetic mean for comparison of the estimated doses with acceptance criteria. In any case, the results obtained through Uncertainty Analyses must be interpreted with caution as long as input data distribution functions are not derived from experiments reasonably reproducing the situation in a well characterized repository and site

  13. Changes in taste sensation of sour, salty, sweet, bitter, umami, and spicy, as well as levels of malondialdehyde serum in radiographers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agniz Nur Aulia

    2016-06-01

    on the effects of radiation on cancer patients show that radiation can cause an increase in bitterness and metal taste [in cancer patients] leading to discomfort in the oral cavity. In body, free radicals then can cause lipid peroxidation process. Lipid peroxidation is an oxidative destruction of polyunsaturated fatty acid producing malondialdehyde (MDA. Purpose: This study aimed to determine the effects of radiation on changes in the taste sensation of sour, salty, sweet, bitter, umami, and spicy as well as the levels of MDA serum in radiographers. Method: This study was an observational laboratory research using post- test control design. Samples were selected using simple random sampling technique. The samples were seven radiographers who have been working for five years in the laboratory and radiographic units in Surabaya. Result: Based on the results of statistical tests, it showed that there were no differences in the sensitivity of all tastes between the groups tested. Moreover, the results also depicted considerable value for the sour taste was 0.550, the saltiness was 0.775, the sweetness was 0.294, the bitter taste was 0.065, the umami taste was 0.705, and the spicy taste was 0.319 (p>0.05. However, the dramatic increase was higlighted in levels of MDA serum with a significant value of 0.065 (p>0.005. Conclusion. There were no changes in the sensitivity of sour, salty, sweet, bitter, umami, and spicy tastes, but there was a significant increased in level of MDA serum in the radiographers compared to the control group.

  14. Resolving structural uncertainty in natural resources management using POMDP approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    In recent years there has been a growing focus on the uncertainties of natural resources management, and the importance of accounting for uncertainty in assessing management effectiveness. This paper focuses on uncertainty in resource management in terms of discrete-state Markov decision processes (MDP) under structural uncertainty and partial observability. It describes the treatment of structural uncertainty with approaches developed for partially observable resource systems. In particular, I show how value iteration for partially observable MDPs (POMDP) can be extended to structurally uncertain MDPs. A key difference between these process classes is that structurally uncertain MDPs require the tracking of system state as well as a probability structure for the structure uncertainty, whereas with POMDPs require only a probability structure for the observation uncertainty. The added complexity of the optimization problem under structural uncertainty is compensated by reduced dimensionality in the search for optimal strategy. A solution algorithm for structurally uncertain processes is outlined for a simple example in conservation biology. By building on the conceptual framework developed for POMDPs, natural resource analysts and decision makers who confront structural uncertainties in natural resources can take advantage of the rapid growth in POMDP methods and approaches, and thereby produce better conservation strategies over a larger class of resource problems. ?? 2011.

  15. Findings of a retrospective survey conducted after the Lodgepole sour gas well blowout to determine if the natural occurrence of bovine abortions and fetal anomalies increased

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klavano, G.G.; Christian, R.G.

    1992-01-01

    A survey was conducted after the Lodgepole sour gas well blowout of October 1982 to determine if the incident changed the number and type of bovine abortions and abnormal bovine feti submitted to the diagnostic laboratory from the blowout area. The records of the total number of bovine feti submitted were compared between three areas to determine if there was a significant difference between the areas closer to the well site and the larger total area. No changes or trends could be ascribed to the well blowout. 2 refs., 5 tabs

  16. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-09-30

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the

  17. Assessing flood forecast uncertainty with fuzzy arithmetic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Bruyn Bertrand

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing forecasts for flow rates and water levels during floods have to be associated with uncertainty estimates. The forecast sources of uncertainty are plural. For hydrological forecasts (rainfall-runoff performed using a deterministic hydrological model with basic physics, two main sources can be identified. The first obvious source is the forcing data: rainfall forecast data are supplied in real time by meteorological forecasting services to the Flood Forecasting Service within a range between a lowest and a highest predicted discharge. These two values define an uncertainty interval for the rainfall variable provided on a given watershed. The second source of uncertainty is related to the complexity of the modeled system (the catchment impacted by the hydro-meteorological phenomenon, the number of variables that may describe the problem and their spatial and time variability. The model simplifies the system by reducing the number of variables to a few parameters. Thus it contains an intrinsic uncertainty. This model uncertainty is assessed by comparing simulated and observed rates for a large number of hydro-meteorological events. We propose a method based on fuzzy arithmetic to estimate the possible range of flow rates (and levels of water making a forecast based on possible rainfalls provided by forcing and uncertainty model. The model uncertainty is here expressed as a range of possible values. Both rainfall and model uncertainties are combined with fuzzy arithmetic. This method allows to evaluate the prediction uncertainty range. The Flood Forecasting Service of Oise and Aisne rivers, in particular, monitors the upstream watershed of the Oise at Hirson. This watershed’s area is 310 km2. Its response time is about 10 hours. Several hydrological models are calibrated for flood forecasting in this watershed and use the rainfall forecast. This method presents the advantage to be easily implemented. Moreover, it permits to be carried out

  18. Uncertainty quantification using evidence theory in multidisciplinary design optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agarwal, Harish; Renaud, John E.; Preston, Evan L.; Padmanabhan, Dhanesh

    2004-01-01

    Advances in computational performance have led to the development of large-scale simulation tools for design. Systems generated using such simulation tools can fail in service if the uncertainty of the simulation tool's performance predictions is not accounted for. In this research an investigation of how uncertainty can be quantified in multidisciplinary systems analysis subject to epistemic uncertainty associated with the disciplinary design tools and input parameters is undertaken. Evidence theory is used to quantify uncertainty in terms of the uncertain measures of belief and plausibility. To illustrate the methodology, multidisciplinary analysis problems are introduced as an extension to the epistemic uncertainty challenge problems identified by Sandia National Laboratories. After uncertainty has been characterized mathematically the designer seeks the optimum design under uncertainty. The measures of uncertainty provided by evidence theory are discontinuous functions. Such non-smooth functions cannot be used in traditional gradient-based optimizers because the sensitivities of the uncertain measures are not properly defined. In this research surrogate models are used to represent the uncertain measures as continuous functions. A sequential approximate optimization approach is used to drive the optimization process. The methodology is illustrated in application to multidisciplinary example problems

  19. Uncertainty analysis of neutron transport calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oka, Y.; Furuta, K.; Kondo, S.

    1987-01-01

    A cross section sensitivity-uncertainty analysis code, SUSD was developed. The code calculates sensitivity coefficients for one and two-dimensional transport problems based on the first order perturbation theory. Variance and standard deviation of detector responses or design parameters can be obtained using cross section covariance matrix. The code is able to perform sensitivity-uncertainty analysis for secondary neutron angular distribution(SAD) and secondary neutron energy distribution(SED). Covariances of 6 Li and 7 Li neutron cross sections in JENDL-3PR1 were evaluated including SAD and SED. Covariances of Fe and Be were also evaluated. The uncertainty of tritium breeding ratio, fast neutron leakage flux and neutron heating was analysed on four types of blanket concepts for a commercial tokamak fusion reactor. The uncertainty of tritium breeding ratio was less than 6 percent. Contribution from SAD/SED uncertainties are significant for some parameters. Formulas to estimate the errors of numerical solution of the transport equation were derived based on the perturbation theory. This method enables us to deterministically estimate the numerical errors due to iterative solution, spacial discretization and Legendre polynomial expansion of transfer cross-sections. The calculational errors of the tritium breeding ratio and the fast neutron leakage flux of the fusion blankets were analysed. (author)

  20. Uncertainty in ecological risk assessment: A statistician's view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, E.P.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty is a topic that has different meanings to researchers, modelers, managers and policy makers. The perspective of this presentation will be on the modeling view of uncertainty and its quantitative assessment. The goal is to provide some insight into how a statistician visualizes and addresses the issue of uncertainty in ecological risk assessment problems. In ecological risk assessment, uncertainty arises from many sources and is of different type depending on what is studies, where it is studied and how it is studied. Some major sources and their impact are described. A variety of quantitative approaches to modeling uncertainty are characterized and a general taxonomy given. Examples of risk assessments of lake acidification, power plant impact assessment and the setting of standards for chemicals will be used discuss approaches to quantitative assessment of uncertainty and some of the potential difficulties

  1. Uncertainty Estimation Cheat Sheet for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Paul T.; Al Hassan, Mohammad; Ring, Robert W.

    2017-01-01

    "Uncertainty analysis itself is uncertain, therefore, you cannot evaluate it exactly," Source Uncertain Quantitative results for aerospace engineering problems are influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables as well as through the propagation of these uncertainties up to the result. Uncertainty can be thought of as a measure of the 'goodness' of a result and is typically represented as statistical dispersion. This paper will explain common measures of centrality and dispersion; and-with examples-will provide guidelines for how they may be estimated to ensure effective technical contributions to decision-making.

  2. LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassahn, G.D.

    1983-01-01

    The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear-reactor-safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses

  3. LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassahn, G.D.

    1983-01-01

    The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear reactor safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses

  4. Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visschers, Vivianne H M

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty is related to people's concern about climate change, their trust in science, their knowledge about climate change, and their political attitude. The results of a principal component analysis showed that respondents differentiated between perceived ambiguity in climate research, measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty about the future impact of climate change. Using structural equation modeling, it was found that only perceived ambiguity was directly related to concern about climate change, whereas measurement uncertainty and future uncertainty were not. Trust in climate science was strongly associated with each type of uncertainty perception and was indirectly associated with concern about climate change. Also, more knowledge about climate change was related to less strong perceptions of each type of climate science uncertainty. Hence, it is suggested that to increase public concern about climate change, it may be especially important to consider the perceived ambiguity about climate research. Efforts that foster trust in climate science also appear highly worthwhile. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A; Girolami, Mark

    2015-07-08

    We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods : algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.

  6. Transfer of Nuclear Data Uncertainties to the Uncertainties of Fuel Characteristic by Interval Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ukraintsev, V.F.; Kolesov, V.V.

    2006-01-01

    Usually for evaluation of reactor functionals uncertainties, the perturbation theory and sensitivity analysis techniques are used. Of cause linearization approach of perturbation theory is used. This approach has several disadvantages and that is why a new method, based on application of a special interval calculations technique has been created. Basically, the problem of dependency of fuel cycle characteristic uncertainties from source group neutron cross-sections and decay parameters uncertainties can be solved (to some extent) as well by use of sensitivity analysis. However such procedure is rather labor consuming and does not give guaranteed estimations for received parameters since it works, strictly speaking, only for small deviations because it is initially based on linearization of the mathematical problems. The technique of fuel cycle characteristics uncertainties estimation is based on so-called interval analysis (or interval calculations). The basic advantage of this technique is the opportunity of deriving correct estimations. This technique consists in introducing a new special type of data such as Interval data in codes and the definition for them of all arithmetic operations. A technique of problem decision for system of linear equations (isotope kinetics) with use of interval arithmetic for the fuel burning up problem, has been realized. Thus there is an opportunity to compute a neutron flux, fission and capture cross-section uncertainties impact on nuclide concentration uncertainties and on fuel cycle characteristics (such as K eff , breeding ratio, decay heat power etc). By this time the code for interval calculation of burn-up computing has been developed and verified

  7. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of user interpretation on uncertainty estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, G.; Peterson, R.

    1996-11-01

    variation between the best estimate predictions of the group. The assumptions of the users result in more uncertainty in the predictions (taking into account the 95% confidence intervals) than is shown by the confidence interval on the predictions of one user. Mistakes, being examples of incorrect user assumptions, cannot be ignored and must be accepted as contributing to the variability seen in the spread of predictions. The user's confidence in his/her understanding of a scenario description and/or confidence in working with a code does not necessarily mean that the predictions will be more accurate. Choice of parameter values contributed most to user-induced uncertainty followed by scenario interpretation. The contribution due to code implementation was low, but may have been limited due to the decision of the majority of the group not to submit predictions using the most complex of the three codes. Most modelers had difficulty adapting the models for certain expected output. Parameter values for wet and dry deposition, transfer from forage to milk and concentration ratios were mostly taken from the extensive database of Chernobyl fallout radionuclides, no matter what the scenario. Examples provided in the code manuals may influence code users considerably when preparing their own input files. A major problem concerns pasture concentrations given in fresh or dry weight: parameter values in codes have to be based on one or the other and the request for predictions in the scenario description may or may not be the same unit. This is a surprisingly common source of error. Most of the predictions showed order of magnitude discrepancies when best estimates are compared with the observations, although the participants had a highly professional background in radioecology and a good understanding of the importance of the processes modelled. When uncertainties are considered, however, mostly there was overlap between predictions and observations. A failure to reproduce the time

  8. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of user interpretation on uncertainty estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirchner, G. [Univ. of Bremen (Germany); Peterson, R. [AECL, Chalk River, ON (Canada)] [and others

    1996-11-01

    variation between the best estimate predictions of the group. The assumptions of the users result in more uncertainty in the predictions (taking into account the 95% confidence intervals) than is shown by the confidence interval on the predictions of one user. Mistakes, being examples of incorrect user assumptions, cannot be ignored and must be accepted as contributing to the variability seen in the spread of predictions. The user's confidence in his/her understanding of a scenario description and/or confidence in working with a code does not necessarily mean that the predictions will be more accurate. Choice of parameter values contributed most to user-induced uncertainty followed by scenario interpretation. The contribution due to code implementation was low, but may have been limited due to the decision of the majority of the group not to submit predictions using the most complex of the three codes. Most modelers had difficulty adapting the models for certain expected output. Parameter values for wet and dry deposition, transfer from forage to milk and concentration ratios were mostly taken from the extensive database of Chernobyl fallout radionuclides, no matter what the scenario. Examples provided in the code manuals may influence code users considerably when preparing their own input files. A major problem concerns pasture concentrations given in fresh or dry weight: parameter values in codes have to be based on one or the other and the request for predictions in the scenario description may or may not be the same unit. This is a surprisingly common source of error. Most of the predictions showed order of magnitude discrepancies when best estimates are compared with the observations, although the participants had a highly professional background in radioecology and a good understanding of the importance of the processes modelled. When uncertainties are considered, however, mostly there was overlap between predictions and observations. A failure to reproduce the

  9. Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G.; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if

  10. Nuclear Data Uncertainty Propagation in Depletion Calculations Using Cross Section Uncertainties in One-group or Multi-group

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Díez, C.J., E-mail: cj.diez@upm.es [Dpto. de Ingeníera Nuclear, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Cabellos, O. [Dpto. de Ingeníera Nuclear, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fusión Nuclear, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Martínez, J.S. [Dpto. de Ingeníera Nuclear, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28006 Madrid (Spain)

    2015-01-15

    Several approaches have been developed in last decades to tackle nuclear data uncertainty propagation problems of burn-up calculations. One approach proposed was the Hybrid Method, where uncertainties in nuclear data are propagated only on the depletion part of a burn-up problem. Because only depletion is addressed, only one-group cross sections are necessary, and hence, their collapsed one-group uncertainties. This approach has been applied successfully in several advanced reactor systems like EFIT (ADS-like reactor) or ESFR (Sodium fast reactor) to assess uncertainties on the isotopic composition. However, a comparison with using multi-group energy structures was not carried out, and has to be performed in order to analyse the limitations of using one-group uncertainties.

  11. Nuclear Data Uncertainty Propagation in Depletion Calculations Using Cross Section Uncertainties in One-group or Multi-group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Díez, C.J.; Cabellos, O.; Martínez, J.S.

    2015-01-01

    Several approaches have been developed in last decades to tackle nuclear data uncertainty propagation problems of burn-up calculations. One approach proposed was the Hybrid Method, where uncertainties in nuclear data are propagated only on the depletion part of a burn-up problem. Because only depletion is addressed, only one-group cross sections are necessary, and hence, their collapsed one-group uncertainties. This approach has been applied successfully in several advanced reactor systems like EFIT (ADS-like reactor) or ESFR (Sodium fast reactor) to assess uncertainties on the isotopic composition. However, a comparison with using multi-group energy structures was not carried out, and has to be performed in order to analyse the limitations of using one-group uncertainties

  12. Nuclear Data Uncertainty Propagation in Depletion Calculations Using Cross Section Uncertainties in One-group or Multi-group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díez, C. J.; Cabellos, O.; Martínez, J. S.

    2015-01-01

    Several approaches have been developed in last decades to tackle nuclear data uncertainty propagation problems of burn-up calculations. One approach proposed was the Hybrid Method, where uncertainties in nuclear data are propagated only on the depletion part of a burn-up problem. Because only depletion is addressed, only one-group cross sections are necessary, and hence, their collapsed one-group uncertainties. This approach has been applied successfully in several advanced reactor systems like EFIT (ADS-like reactor) or ESFR (Sodium fast reactor) to assess uncertainties on the isotopic composition. However, a comparison with using multi-group energy structures was not carried out, and has to be performed in order to analyse the limitations of using one-group uncertainties.

  13. The stochastic goodwill problem

    OpenAIRE

    Marinelli, Carlo

    2003-01-01

    Stochastic control problems related to optimal advertising under uncertainty are considered. In particular, we determine the optimal strategies for the problem of maximizing the utility of goodwill at launch time and minimizing the disutility of a stream of advertising costs that extends until the launch time for some classes of stochastic perturbations of the classical Nerlove-Arrow dynamics. We also consider some generalizations such as problems with constrained budget and with discretionar...

  14. Un établissement du début du premier âge du Fer en Eure-et-Loir : Sours, Les Ouches A settlement from the first Iron Age in Eure-et-Loir: Sours, Les Ouches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Dupont

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available La fouille du site des Ouches à Sours (28 a permis la mise au jour d’une importante occupation du Néolithique ancien et la découverte, dans la partie nord de l’emprise, de plusieurs structures datables du début de l’âge du Fer (Hallstatt C. Elles correspondent à des structures domestiques (un bâtiment et des fosses et à une entité “ cultuelle ”: un double enclos en “ U ”.L’habitation et ses annexes sont représentées par un bâtiment de plan quadrangulaire sur poteaux et une grande fosse riche en mobilier (céramiques, ossements et silex taillés. Cette structure peut être associée au fonctionnement d’un four de type “ polynésien ” et avoir servi de fosse de rejet.Le double enclos, ouvert vers le nord, est localisé au nord-est du site.Même si trois céramiques entières ont été trouvées dans son fossé externe, l’essentiel du mobilier céramique (177 individus sur 192 est issu de la grande fosse. Il s’agit principalement de coupes, de jattes parfois incisées, de petits gobelets à panse globulaire typiques du Hallstatt C ou de vases servant au stockage. Ils sont dotés de manière régulière de cordons digités.Ce petit établissement du début de l’âge du Fer a livré un bon échantillon des céramiques en usage en Eure-et-Loir à cette époque ainsi que des vestiges archéozoologiques et lithiques en quantité intéressante. Ces découvertes donnent de nouvelles informations sur les affinités culturelles à la transition entre l’âge du Bronze et l’âge du Fer, période peu documentée dans le Nord de la région Centre.The excavation of the site of Ouches at Sours (28 has enabled the updating of an important settlement from the early Neolithic and the discovery, in the northern part of the site, of several structures datable to the beginning of the Iron Age (Hallstatt C. They correspond to domestic structures (a building and some ditches and a “worship” entity: a double

  15. Investment and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greasley, David; Madsen, Jakob B.

    2006-01-01

    A severe collapse of fixed capital formation distinguished the onset of the Great Depression from other investment downturns between the world wars. Using a model estimated for the years 1890-2000, we show that the expected profitability of capital measured by Tobin's q, and the uncertainty...... surrounding expected profits indicated by share price volatility, were the chief influences on investment levels, and that heightened share price volatility played the dominant role in the crucial investment collapse in 1930. Investment did not simply follow the downward course of income at the onset...

  16. Optimization under Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Lopez, Rafael H.

    2016-01-06

    The goal of this poster is to present the main approaches to optimization of engineering systems in the presence of uncertainties. We begin by giving an insight about robust optimization. Next, we detail how to deal with probabilistic constraints in optimization, the so called the reliability based design. Subsequently, we present the risk optimization approach, which includes the expected costs of failure in the objective function. After that the basic description of each approach is given, the projects developed by CORE are presented. Finally, the main current topic of research of CORE is described.

  17. Commonplaces and social uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, Inger

    2008-01-01

    This article explores the concept of uncertainty in four focus group discussions about genetically modified food. In the discussions, members of the general public interact with food biotechnology scientists while negotiating their attitudes towards genetic engineering. Their discussions offer...... an example of risk discourse in which the use of commonplaces seems to be a central feature (Myers 2004: 81). My analyses support earlier findings that commonplaces serve important interactional purposes (Barton 1999) and that they are used for mitigating disagreement, for closing topics and for facilitating...

  18. Principles of Uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Kadane, Joseph B

    2011-01-01

    An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics. An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Both rigorous and friendly, the book contains: Introductory chapters examining each new concept or assumption Just-in-time mathematics -- the presentation of ideas just before they are applied Summary and exercises at the end of each chapter Discus

  19. Siting uncertainties and challenges in Appalachia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vincenti, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the uncertainties and challenges facing users of radioactive isotopes and the generators of low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) in the United States. This paper focuses specially on those user/generators in Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, which make up the Appalachian States Compact. These uncertainties are based on legal and political actions that have thwarted siting and licensing of LLRW throughout the United States. The challenges facing users of radioactive isotopes are numerous. They stem from the need to reduce or minimize waste volume and to treat or eliminate the generation of waste, especially mixed waste. The basic problem, after the attention to waste management, is that some users are still left with a waste that must be disposed of in a regional or national site for long-term storage and monitoring. This problem will not go away

  20. Uncertainty in biology a computational modeling approach

    CERN Document Server

    Gomez-Cabrero, David

    2016-01-01

    Computational modeling of biomedical processes is gaining more and more weight in the current research into the etiology of biomedical problems and potential treatment strategies.  Computational modeling allows to reduce, refine and replace animal experimentation as well as to translate findings obtained in these experiments to the human background. However these biomedical problems are inherently complex with a myriad of influencing factors, which strongly complicates the model building and validation process.  This book wants to address four main issues related to the building and validation of computational models of biomedical processes: Modeling establishment under uncertainty Model selection and parameter fitting Sensitivity analysis and model adaptation Model predictions under uncertainty In each of the abovementioned areas, the book discusses a number of key-techniques by means of a general theoretical description followed by one or more practical examples.  This book is intended for graduate stude...

  1. A review of different perspectives on uncertainty and risk and an alternative modeling paradigm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samson, Sundeep; Reneke, James A.; Wiecek, Margaret M.

    2009-01-01

    The literature in economics, finance, operations research, engineering and in general mathematics is first reviewed on the subject of defining uncertainty and risk. The review goes back to 1901. Different perspectives on uncertainty and risk are examined and a new paradigm to model uncertainty and risk is proposed using relevant ideas from this study. This new paradigm is used to represent, aggregate and propagate uncertainty and interpret the resulting variability in a challenge problem developed by Oberkampf et al. [2004, Challenge problems: uncertainty in system response given uncertain parameters. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2004; 85(1): 11-9]. The challenge problem is further extended into a decision problem that is treated within a multicriteria decision making framework to illustrate how the new paradigm yields optimal decisions under uncertainty. The accompanying risk is defined as the probability of an unsatisfactory system response quantified by a random function of the uncertainty

  2. Attitudes, beliefs, uncertainty and risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenhalgh, Geoffrey [Down Park Place, Crawley Down (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    There is now unmistakable evidence of a widening split within the Western industrial nations arising from conflicting views of society; for and against change. The argument is over the benefits of 'progress' and growth. On one side are those who seek more jobs, more production and consumption, higher standards of living, an ever-increasing GNP with an increasing globalisation of production and welcome the advances of science and technology confident that any temporary problems that arise can be solved by further technological development - possible energy shortages as a growing population increases energy usage can be met by nuclear power development; food shortages by the increased yields of GM crops. In opposition are those who put the quality of life before GNP, advocate a more frugal life-style, reducing needs and energy consumption, and, pointing to the harm caused by increasing pollution, press for cleaner air and water standards. They seek to reduce the pressure of an ever-increasing population and above all to preserve the natural environment. This view is associated with a growing uncertainty as the established order is challenged with the rise in status of 'alternative' science and medicine. This paper argues that these conflicting views reflect instinctive attitudes. These in turn draw support from beliefs selected from those which uncertainty offers. Where there is scope for argument over the truth or validity of a 'fact', the choice of which of the disputed views to believe will be determined by a value judgement. This applies to all controversial social and political issues. Nuclear waste disposal and biotechnology are but two particular examples in the technological field; joining the EMU is a current political controversy where value judgements based on attitudes determine beliefs. When, or if, a controversy is finally resolved the judgement arrived at will be justified by the belief that the consequences of the course chosen will be more favourable

  3. Attitudes, beliefs, uncertainty and risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenhalgh, Geoffrey [Down Park Place, Crawley Down (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    There is now unmistakable evidence of a widening split within the Western industrial nations arising from conflicting views of society; for and against change. The argument is over the benefits of 'progress' and growth. On one side are those who seek more jobs, more production and consumption, higher standards of living, an ever-increasing GNP with an increasing globalisation of production and welcome the advances of science and technology confident that any temporary problems that arise can be solved by further technological development - possible energy shortages as a growing population increases energy usage can be met by nuclear power development; food shortages by the increased yields of GM crops. In opposition are those who put the quality of life before GNP, advocate a more frugal life-style, reducing needs and energy consumption, and, pointing to the harm caused by increasing pollution, press for cleaner air and water standards. They seek to reduce the pressure of an ever-increasing population and above all to preserve the natural environment. This view is associated with a growing uncertainty as the established order is challenged with the rise in status of 'alternative' science and medicine. This paper argues that these conflicting views reflect instinctive attitudes. These in turn draw support from beliefs selected from those which uncertainty offers. Where there is scope for argument over the truth or validity of a 'fact', the choice of which of the disputed views to believe will be determined by a value judgement. This applies to all controversial social and political issues. Nuclear waste disposal and biotechnology are but two particular examples in the technological field; joining the EMU is a current political controversy where value judgements based on attitudes determine beliefs. When, or if, a controversy is finally resolved the judgement arrived at will be justified by the belief that the consequences of the course

  4. Attitudes, beliefs, uncertainty and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenhalgh, Geoffrey

    2001-01-01

    There is now unmistakable evidence of a widening split within the Western industrial nations arising from conflicting views of society; for and against change. The argument is over the benefits of 'progress' and growth. On one side are those who seek more jobs, more production and consumption, higher standards of living, an ever-increasing GNP with an increasing globalisation of production and welcome the advances of science and technology confident that any temporary problems that arise can be solved by further technological development - possible energy shortages as a growing population increases energy usage can be met by nuclear power development; food shortages by the increased yields of GM crops. In opposition are those who put the quality of life before GNP, advocate a more frugal life-style, reducing needs and energy consumption, and, pointing to the harm caused by increasing pollution, press for cleaner air and water standards. They seek to reduce the pressure of an ever-increasing population and above all to preserve the natural environment. This view is associated with a growing uncertainty as the established order is challenged with the rise in status of 'alternative' science and medicine. This paper argues that these conflicting views reflect instinctive attitudes. These in turn draw support from beliefs selected from those which uncertainty offers. Where there is scope for argument over the truth or validity of a 'fact', the choice of which of the disputed views to believe will be determined by a value judgement. This applies to all controversial social and political issues. Nuclear waste disposal and biotechnology are but two particular examples in the technological field; joining the EMU is a current political controversy where value judgements based on attitudes determine beliefs. When, or if, a controversy is finally resolved the judgement arrived at will be justified by the belief that the consequences of the course chosen will be more favourable

  5. Uncertainty quantification for hyperbolic and kinetic equations

    CERN Document Server

    Pareschi, Lorenzo

    2017-01-01

    This book explores recent advances in uncertainty quantification for hyperbolic, kinetic, and related problems. The contributions address a range of different aspects, including: polynomial chaos expansions, perturbation methods, multi-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling, and moment methods. The interest in these topics is rapidly growing, as their applications have now expanded to many areas in engineering, physics, biology and the social sciences. Accordingly, the book provides the scientific community with a topical overview of the latest research efforts.

  6. Decisions under uncertainty using Bayesian analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stelian STANCU

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation brings a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty degree that influences decision making process. As a conclusion, in a large number of decision problems, there is the possibility that the decision makers will renew some decisions already taken because of the facilities offered by obtainig extrainformation.

  7. Applications of UT results to confirm defects findings by utilization of relevant metallurgical investigations techniques on gas/condensate pipeline working in wet sour gas environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Azhari, O. A.; Gajam, S. Y.

    2015-03-01

    The gas/condensate pipe line under investigation is a 12 inch diameter, 48 km ASTM, A106 steel pipeline, carrying hydrocarbons containing wet CO2 and H2S.The pipe line had exploded in a region 100m distance from its terminal; after 24 years of service. Hydrogen induced cracking (HIC) and sour gas corrosion were expected due to the presence of wet H2S in the gas analysis. In other areas of pipe line ultrasonic testing was performed to determine whether the pipeline can be re-operated. The results have shown presence of internal planner defects, this was attributed to the existence of either laminations, type II inclusions or some service defects such as HIC and step wise cracking (SWC).Metallurgical investigations were conducted on fractured samples as per NACE standard (TM-0284-84). The obtained results had shown macroscopic cracks in the form of SWC, microstructure of steel had MnS inclusions. Crack sensitivity analyses were calculated and the microhardness testing was conducted. These results had confirmed that the line material was suffering from sour gas deteriorations. This paper correlates the field UT inspection findings with those methods investigated in the laboratory. Based on the results obtained a new HIC resistance material pipeline needs to be selected.

  8. Sulfide stress corrosion study of a super martensitic stainless steel in H2S sour environments: Metallic sulfides formation and hydrogen embrittlement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monnot, Martin; Nogueira, Ricardo P.; Roche, Virginie; Berthomé, Grégory; Chauveau, Eric; Estevez, Rafael; Mantel, Marc

    2017-02-01

    Thanks to their high corrosion resistance, super martensitic stainless steels are commonly used in the oil and gas industry, particularly in sour environments. Some grades are however susceptible to undergo hydrogen and mechanically-assisted corrosion processes in the presence of H2S, depending on the pH. The martensitic stainless steel EN 1.4418 grade exhibits a clear protective passive behavior with no sulfide stress corrosion cracking when exposed to sour environments of pH ≥ 4, but undergoes a steep decrease in its corrosion resistance at lower pH conditions. The present paper investigated this abrupt loss of corrosion resistance with electrochemical measurements as well as different physicochemical characterization techniques. Results indicated that below pH 4.0 the metal surface is covered by a thick (ca 40 μm) porous and defect-full sulfide-rich corrosion products layer shown to be straightforwardly related to the onset of hydrogen and sulfide mechanically-assisted corrosion phenomena.

  9. Ghrelin is produced in taste cells and ghrelin receptor null mice show reduced taste responsivity to salty (NaCl and sour (citric acid tastants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Kyong Shin

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The gustatory system plays a critical role in determining food preferences, food intake and energy balance. The exact mechanisms that fine tune taste sensitivity are currently poorly defined, but it is clear that numerous factors such as efferent input and specific signal transduction cascades are involved.Using immunohistochemical analyses, we show that ghrelin, a hormone classically considered to be an appetite-regulating hormone, is present within the taste buds of the tongue. Prepro-ghrelin, prohormone convertase 1/3 (PC 1/3, ghrelin, its cognate receptor (GHSR, and ghrelin-O-acyltransferase (GOAT , the enzyme that activates ghrelin are expressed in Type I, II, III and IV taste cells of mouse taste buds. In addition, ghrelin and GHSR co-localize in the same taste cells, suggesting that ghrelin works in an autocrine manner in taste cells. To determine a role for ghrelin in modifying taste perception, we performed taste behavioral tests using GHSR null mice. GHSR null mice exhibited significantly reduced taste responsivity to sour (citric acid and salty (sodium chloride tastants.These findings suggest that ghrelin plays a local modulatory role in determining taste bud signaling and function and could be a novel mechanism for the modulation of salty and sour taste responsivity.

  10. Preliminary Valuation of “Y” and “V”-Trellised Canopies for Mechanical Harvesting of Plums, Sweet Cherries and Sour Cherries for the Fresh Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabcewicz Jacek

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Plums, sweet cherry, and sour cherry trees were spaced 4.5 m × 1.5 m to be trained to “Y” and “V”-trellising systems for mechanical harvesting, with a canopy contact harvester, attending to obtain fruits meeting the requirements of the fresh fruit market. The applied trellising systems were compared with the standard central leader system at the same spacing. The most of trellised trees grew less vigorously than the standard trees, and after 3 years of training, the trees were suitable for mechanical harvesting with the harvester designed at the Research Institute of Horticulture in Skierniewice. The trellised trees were able to set as many fruitlets as those grown in the form of central leader and gave a comparable yield, but differences between cultivars were significant. Light interception in the third year after planting was lower for trees of sour cherry and plum growing in the “Y”-20° and “V” in comparison to the trees with central leader. Illumination of trellised canopies at the level of 0.7 and 1.5 m was the most favorable in “V” system when compared to control and “Y” training systems. Cost of construction for the trellising systems of stone fruits calculated per 1 ha was two times higher when compared with the standard system.

  11. Investment, regulation, and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Stuart J; McDonald, Jillian; Falck-Zepeda, Jose

    2014-01-01

    As with any technological innovation, time refines the technology, improving upon the original version of the innovative product. The initial GM crops had single traits for either herbicide tolerance or insect resistance. Current varieties have both of these traits stacked together and in many cases other abiotic and biotic traits have also been stacked. This innovation requires investment. While this is relatively straight forward, certain conditions need to exist such that investments can be facilitated. The principle requirement for investment is that regulatory frameworks render consistent and timely decisions. If the certainty of regulatory outcomes weakens, the potential for changes in investment patterns increases.   This article provides a summary background to the leading plant breeding technologies that are either currently being used to develop new crop varieties or are in the pipeline to be applied to plant breeding within the next few years. Challenges for existing regulatory systems are highlighted. Utilizing an option value approach from investment literature, an assessment of uncertainty regarding the regulatory approval for these varying techniques is undertaken. This research highlights which technology development options have the greatest degree of uncertainty and hence, which ones might be expected to see an investment decline. PMID:24499745

  12. Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumer, Eric; Elliott, Darren

    2013-01-01

    Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

  13. Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milner-Gulland, E J; Shea, K

    2017-12-01

    Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. Synthesis and applications . Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.

  14. Oil price uncertainty in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elder, John [Department of Finance and Real Estate, 1272 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2009-11-15

    Bernanke [Bernanke, Ben S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1983), 85-106.] shows how uncertainty about energy prices may induce optimizing firms to postpone investment decisions, thereby leading to a decline in aggregate output. Elder and Serletis [Elder, John and Serletis, Apostolos. Oil price uncertainty.] find empirical evidence that uncertainty about oil prices has tended to depress investment in the United States. In this paper we assess the robustness of these results by investigating the effects of oil price uncertainty in Canada. Our results are remarkably similar to existing results for the United States, providing additional evidence that uncertainty about oil prices may provide another explanation for why the sharp oil price declines of 1985 failed to produce rapid output growth. Impulse-response analysis suggests that uncertainty about oil prices may tend to reinforce the negative response of output to positive oil shocks. (author)

  15. Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, Jon C.; Johnson, Jay D.

    2011-01-01

    In 2001, the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy in conjunction with the national security laboratories (i.e., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories) initiated development of a process designated Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) for the use of risk assessment methodologies in the certification of the reliability and safety of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. A previous presentation, 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties: Conceptual and Computational Basis,' describes the basic ideas that underlie QMU and illustrates these ideas with two notional examples that employ probability for the representation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The current presentation introduces and illustrates the use of interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory as alternatives to the use of probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in QMU-type analyses. The following topics are considered: the mathematical structure of alternative representations of uncertainty, alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving only epistemic uncertainty, and alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving a separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Analyses involving interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory are illustrated with the same two notional examples used in the presentation indicated above to illustrate the use of probability to represent aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses.

  16. Improvement of Statistical Decisions under Parametric Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nechval, Nicholas A.; Nechval, Konstantin N.; Purgailis, Maris; Berzins, Gundars; Rozevskis, Uldis

    2011-10-01

    A large number of problems in production planning and scheduling, location, transportation, finance, and engineering design require that decisions be made in the presence of uncertainty. Decision-making under uncertainty is a central problem in statistical inference, and has been formally studied in virtually all approaches to inference. The aim of the present paper is to show how the invariant embedding technique, the idea of which belongs to the authors, may be employed in the particular case of finding the improved statistical decisions under parametric uncertainty. This technique represents a simple and computationally attractive statistical method based on the constructive use of the invariance principle in mathematical statistics. Unlike the Bayesian approach, an invariant embedding technique is independent of the choice of priors. It allows one to eliminate unknown parameters from the problem and to find the best invariant decision rule, which has smaller risk than any of the well-known decision rules. To illustrate the proposed technique, application examples are given.

  17. Hydrogen sulfide (H{sub 2}S) and sour gas effects on the eye. A historical perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lambert, Timothy William [Environmental Health, Calgary Health Region, 1509 Centre St SW, Calgary Alberta, T2G 2E6 (Canada)]. E-mail: tim.lambert@calgaryheathregion.ca; Goodwin, Verona Marie [VM Goodwin Research and Consulting Ltd. (Canada); Stefani, Dennis [Environmental Health, Calgary Health Region, 1509 Centre St SW, Calgary Alberta, T2G 2E6 (Canada); Strosher, Lisa [Environmental Health, Calgary Health Region, 1509 Centre St SW, Calgary Alberta, T2G 2E6 (Canada)

    2006-08-15

    The toxicology of hydrogen sulfide (H{sub 2}S) and sour gas on the eye has a long history beginning at least with Ramazzini's observations [Ramazzini B. Diseases of Workers-De Morbis Artificum Diatriba-1713. Wright WC (trans). New York, C. Hafner Publishing Co Inc.; 1964. 98-99 pp.]. In contrast, a recent review by Alberta Health and Wellness (AHW Report) concluded that there is little evidence of eye irritation following short-term exposures to H{sub 2}S at concentrations up to 100 ppm and that the H{sub 2}S literature on the eye is a series of unsubstantiated claims reproduced in review articles dating back to the 1930s [Alberta Health and Wellness (AHW report). Health effects associated with short-term exposure to low levels of hydrogen sulfide: a technical review, Alberta Health and Wellness, October 2002, 81pp.]. In this paper, we evaluated this claim through a historical review of the toxicology of the eye. Ramazzini noted the effects of sewer gas on the eye [Ramazzini B. Diseases of Workers-De Morbis Artificum Diatriba-1713. Wright WC (trans). New York, C. Hafner Publishing Co Inc. 1964. 98-99 pp.]. Lehmann experimentally showed eye effects in men at 70-90 ppm H{sub 2}S and also in animals [Lehmann K. Experimentalle Studien uber den Einfluss technisch und hygienisch wichtiger Gase und Dampfe auf den Organismus. Arch Hyg 1892;14:135-189]. In 1923, Sayers, Mitchell and Yant reported eye effects in animals and men at 50 ppm H{sub 2}S. Barthelemy showed eye effects in animals and men at 20 ppm H{sub 2}S [Barthelemy HL. Ten years' experience with industrial hygiene in connection with the manufacture of viscose rayon. J Ind Hyg Toxicol 1939;21:141-51]. Masure experimentally showed that H{sub 2}S is the causative agent of eye impacts in animals and men [Masure R. La Keratoconjunctivite des filatures de viscose; etude clinique and experiementale. Rev Belge Pathol 1950;20:297-341]. Michal upon microscopic examination of the rat's cornea, found nuclear

  18. Frequency-Domain Robust Performance Condition for Controller Uncertainty in SISO LTI Systems: A Geometric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Raissi Dehkordi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the robust performance problem of a linear time-invariant control system in the presence of robust controller uncertainty. Assuming that plant uncertainty is modeled as an additive perturbation, a geometrical approach is followed in order to find a necessary and sufficient condition for robust performance in the form of a bound on the magnitude of controller uncertainty. This frequency domain bound is derived by converting the problem into an optimization problem, whose solution is shown to be more time-efficient than a conventional structured singular value calculation. The bound on controller uncertainty can be used in controller order reduction and implementation problems.

  19. Characterization of sour (Prunus cerasus L. and sweet cherry (Prunus avium L. varieties with five isozyme systems Caracterização de variedades de ginjeira (Prunus cerasus L. e cerejeira (Prunus avium L. em cinco sistemas isoenzimáticos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Remedios Morales Corts

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Extracts from young leaves of nine sweet cherry (Prunus avium L. and eight sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L. varieties, located in the germplasm collection of the 'Direção Regional de Agricultura da Beira Interior' (Fundão, Portugal, were analysed for five isozyme systems in order to characterise these varieties and detect problems of synonymies and homonymies that frequently present. The sweet and sour cherry varieties analyzed showed low isoenzymatic polymorphism, being PGM and PGI the systems with the highest discrimination power. These systems presented seven and five different zymogrames, respectively. IDH showed four patterns. SKDH and 6-PGD grouped the varieties only into two patterns. The evident and discriminant restrictions of this type of analysis had got results that have only been a complement for agronomical and morphological characterization.Nove extratos de folhas com desenvolvimento encompleto foram obtidos de 9 variedades de cerejeira (Prunus avium L. e 8 de ginjeira (Prunus cerasus L., localizados no campo de germoplasma da "Direcção Regional de Agricultura da Beira Interior" (Fundão, Portugal. Esses extratos foram analisados para 5 sistemas isoenzimáticos a fim de caracterizar essas variedades e simultaneamente detectar sinonímias e homonímias, freqüentes neste tipo de estudos. As variedades de cerejeira e ginjeira analisadas mostraram baixo polimorfismo isoenzimático, sendo que os sistemas PGM e PGI mostraram maior poder de discriminação. Estes sistemas apresentaram 7 e 5 zimogramas diferentes, respectivamente. IDH mostrou 4 padrões. SKDH e 6-PGD agruparam as variedades em 2 padrões. Os evidentes limites discriminatórios desse tipo de análise serviram somente de complemento para a caracterização agronômica e morfológica.

  20. Uncertainty analysis in raw material and utility cost of biorefinery synthesis and design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheali, Peam; Quaglia, Alberto; Gernaey, Krist

    2014-01-01

    are characterized by considerable uncertainty. These uncertainties might have significant impact on the results of the design problem, and therefore need to be carefully evaluated and managed, in order to generate candidates for robust design. In this contribution, we study the effect of data uncertainty (raw...... material price and utility cost) on the design of a biorefinery process network....

  1. Heisenberg's principle of uncertainty and the uncertainty relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redei, Miklos

    1987-01-01

    The usual verbal form of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and the usual mathematical formulation (the so-called uncertainty theorem) are not equivalent. The meaning of the concept 'uncertainty' is not unambiguous and different interpretations are used in the literature. Recently a renewed interest has appeared to reinterpret and reformulate the precise meaning of Heisenberg's principle and to find adequate mathematical form. The suggested new theorems are surveyed and critically analyzed. (D.Gy.) 20 refs

  2. Uncertainty as Certaint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzinger, Tom

    I am trying to make money in the biotech industry from complexity science. And I am doing it with inspiration that I picked up on the edge of Appalachia spending time with June Holley and ACEnet when I was a Wall Street Journal reporter. I took some of those ideas to Pittsburgh, in biotechnology, in a completely private setting with an economic development focus, but also with a mission t o return profit to private capital. And we are doing that. I submit as a hypothesis, something we are figuring out in the post- industrial era, that business evolves. It is not the definition of business, but business critically involves the design of systems in which uncertainty is treated as a certainty. That is what I have seen and what I have tried to put into practice.

  3. Orientation and uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, H.P.; Hennen, L.

    1990-01-01

    The authors report on the results of three representative surveys that made a closer inquiry into perceptions and valuations of information and information sources concering Chernobyl. If turns out that the information sources are generally considered little trustworthy. This was generally attributable to the interpretation of the events being tied to attitudes in the atmonic energy issue. The greatest credit was given to television broadcasting. The authors summarize their discourse as follows: There is good reason to interpret the widespread uncertainty after Chernobyl as proof of the fact that large parts of the population are prepared and willing to assume a critical stance towards information and prefer to draw their information from various sources representing different positions. (orig.) [de

  4. DOD ELAP Lab Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    ISO / IEC   17025  Inspection Bodies – ISO / IEC  17020  RMPs – ISO  Guide 34 (Reference...certify to :  ISO  9001 (QMS),  ISO  14001 (EMS),   TS 16949 (US Automotive)  etc. 2 3 DoD QSM 4.2 standard   ISO / IEC   17025 :2005  Each has uncertainty...IPV6, NLLAP, NEFAP  TRAINING Programs  Certification Bodies – ISO / IEC  17021  Accreditation for  Management System 

  5. Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tosello, Guido; De Chiffre, Leonardo

    2004-01-01

    . The project partnership aims (composed by 7 partners in 5 countries, thus covering a real European spread in high tech production technology) to develop and implement an advanced e-learning system that integrates contributions from quite different disciplines into a user-centred approach that strictly....... Machine tool testing 9. The role of manufacturing metrology for QM 10. Inspection planning 11. Quality management of measurements incl. Documentation 12. Advanced manufacturing measurement technology The present report (which represents the section 2 - Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty – of the e-learning......This report is made as a part of the project ‘Metro-E-Learn: European e-Learning in Manufacturing Metrology’, an EU project under the program SOCRATES MINERVA (ODL and ICT in Education), Contract No: 101434-CP-1-2002-1-DE-MINERVA, coordinated by Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen...

  6. Sustainability and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2007-01-01

    The widely used concept of sustainability is seldom precisely defined, and its clarification involves making up one's mind about a range of difficult questions. One line of research (bottom-up) takes sustaining a system over time as its starting point and then infers prescriptions from...... this requirement. Another line (top-down) takes an economical interpretation of the Brundtland Commission's suggestion that the present generation's needsatisfaction should not compromise the need-satisfaction of future generations as its starting point. It then measures sustainability at the level of society...... a clarified ethical goal, disagreements can arise. At present we do not know what substitutions will be possible in the future. This uncertainty clearly affects the prescriptions that follow from the measure of sustainability. Consequently, decisions about how to make future agriculture sustainable...

  7. An uncertainty inventory demonstration - a primary step in uncertainty quantification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langenbrunner, James R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Salazar, Issac F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2009-01-01

    Tools, methods, and theories for assessing and quantifying uncertainties vary by application. Uncertainty quantification tasks have unique desiderata and circumstances. To realistically assess uncertainty requires the engineer/scientist to specify mathematical models, the physical phenomena of interest, and the theory or framework for assessments. For example, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) specifically identifies uncertainties using probability theory, and therefore, PRA's lack formal procedures for quantifying uncertainties that are not probabilistic. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technique (PIRT) proceeds by ranking phenomena using scoring criteria that results in linguistic descriptors, such as importance ranked with words, 'High/Medium/Low.' The use of words allows PIRT to be flexible, but the analysis may then be difficult to combine with other uncertainty theories. We propose that a necessary step for the development of a procedure or protocol for uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the application of an Uncertainty Inventory. An Uncertainty Inventory should be considered and performed in the earliest stages of UQ.

  8. Uncertainty information in climate data records from Earth observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    demonstrating metrologically sound methodologies addressing this problem for four key historical CDRs. FIDUCEO methods of uncertainty analysis (which also tend to lead to improved FCDRs and CDRs) could support coherent treatment of uncertainty across FCDRs to CDRs and higher level products for a wide range of essential climate variables.

  9. Asymmetric Uncertainty Expression for High Gradient Aerodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinier, Jeremy T

    2012-01-01

    When the physics of the flow around an aircraft changes very abruptly either in time or space (e.g., flow separation/reattachment, boundary layer transition, unsteadiness, shocks, etc), the measurements that are performed in a simulated environment like a wind tunnel test or a computational simulation will most likely incorrectly predict the exact location of where (or when) the change in physics happens. There are many reasons for this, includ- ing the error introduced by simulating a real system at a smaller scale and at non-ideal conditions, or the error due to turbulence models in a computational simulation. The un- certainty analysis principles that have been developed and are being implemented today do not fully account for uncertainty in the knowledge of the location of abrupt physics changes or sharp gradients, leading to a potentially underestimated uncertainty in those areas. To address this problem, a new asymmetric aerodynamic uncertainty expression containing an extra term to account for a phase-uncertainty, the magnitude of which is emphasized in the high-gradient aerodynamic regions is proposed in this paper. Additionally, based on previous work, a method for dispersing aerodynamic data within asymmetric uncer- tainty bounds in a more realistic way has been developed for use within Monte Carlo-type analyses.

  10. Nuclide radioactive decay data uncertainties library

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barabanova, D S; Zherdev, G M

    2017-01-01

    The results of the developing the library of uncertainties of radioactive decay data in the ABBN data library format are described. Different evaluations of uncertainties were compared and their effects on the results of calculations of residual energy release were determined using the test problems and experiment. Tables were generated in the ABBN format with the data obtained on the basis of libraries in ENDF-6 format. 3821 isotopes from the ENDF/B-7 data library, 3852 isotopes from the JEFF-3.11 data library and 1264 isotopes from the JENDL-4.0 data library were processed. It was revealed that the differences in the evaluations accepted in different decay data libraries are not so big, although they sometimes exceed the uncertainties assigned to the data in the ENDF/B-7 and JEFF-3.11 libraries, which as a rule, they agree with each other. On the basis of developed method it is supposed to create a library of data uncertainties for radioactive decay within the constant data system in FSUE RFNC-VNIIEF with its further connection with CRYSTAL module. (paper)

  11. Essays on model uncertainty in financial models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Jing

    2018-01-01

    This dissertation studies model uncertainty, particularly in financial models. It consists of two empirical chapters and one theoretical chapter. The first empirical chapter (Chapter 2) classifies model uncertainty into parameter uncertainty and misspecification uncertainty. It investigates the

  12. Uncertainty Management and Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Georgiadis, Stylianos; Fantke, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty is always there and LCA is no exception to that. The presence of uncertainties of different types and from numerous sources in LCA results is a fact, but managing them allows to quantify and improve the precision of a study and the robustness of its conclusions. LCA practice sometimes...... suffers from an imbalanced perception of uncertainties, justifying modelling choices and omissions. Identifying prevalent misconceptions around uncertainties in LCA is a central goal of this chapter, aiming to establish a positive approach focusing on the advantages of uncertainty management. The main...... objectives of this chapter are to learn how to deal with uncertainty in the context of LCA, how to quantify it, interpret and use it, and how to communicate it. The subject is approached more holistically than just focusing on relevant statistical methods or purely mathematical aspects. This chapter...

  13. Additivity of entropic uncertainty relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Schwonnek

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We consider the uncertainty between two pairs of local projective measurements performed on a multipartite system. We show that the optimal bound in any linear uncertainty relation, formulated in terms of the Shannon entropy, is additive. This directly implies, against naive intuition, that the minimal entropic uncertainty can always be realized by fully separable states. Hence, in contradiction to proposals by other authors, no entanglement witness can be constructed solely by comparing the attainable uncertainties of entangled and separable states. However, our result gives rise to a huge simplification for computing global uncertainty bounds as they now can be deduced from local ones. Furthermore, we provide the natural generalization of the Maassen and Uffink inequality for linear uncertainty relations with arbitrary positive coefficients.

  14. Analysis of Agromorphological Descriptors to Differentiate between Duke Cherry (Prunus x gondouinii (Poit. & TurpinRehd. and Its Progenitors: Sweet Cherry (Prunus avium L. and Sour Cherry (Prunus cerasus L. Análisis de Descriptores Agromorfológicos para Diferenciar entre Cerezo Duke (Prunus x gondouinii (Poit. & Turpin Rehd. y sus Progenitores: Cerezo (Prunus avium L. y Guindo (Prunus cerasus L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Pérez

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The rapid identification of the hybrids between sweet cherry (Prunus avium L. and sour cherry (Prunus cerasus L. is not easy. In order to resolve this problem, 18 Spanish sweet, sour and duke cherry cultivars were surveyed and characterized using 43 agromorphological descriptors evaluated in flowers, leaves, dormant 1-yr-old shoots, fruits, and trees during 2005 and 2006. Based on quantitative parameters, ANOVA and stepwise discriminant analysis (SDA were carried out. For qualitative descriptors, statistical comparisons were done by means of the chi-square (χ2 test. As result of the study, two quantitative (titratable acidity and number of lenticels and six qualitative descriptors (shape of the central and lateral lobes in the internal bracts of the flower fascicles, leaf shape and margin, pubescence in the veins of the lower side of the leaf, and type of sulci of the seed coat were identified as differential parameters in P. avium, P. cerasus and P. x gondouinii(Poit. & Turpin Rehd. Also, another four qualitative descriptors (petal coloration at the end of blooming, leaf stipule type, and seed shape and viability were found to be useful for easy differentiation between sour and duke cherry. None of these parameters has been employed previously to discriminate among sweet, sour and duke cherry.Los híbridos de cerezo (Prunus avium L. y guindo (Prunus cerasus L. no son fáciles de identificar. Para resolver este problema, 18 cultivares de cerezo, guindo y sus híbridos fueron prospectados y caracterizados agromorfológicamente mediante el estudio de 43 descriptores evaluados en flores, hojas, frutos, ramas de 1 año y árbol durante los años 2005 y 2006. En base a los resultados obtenidos del estudio de los diferentes parámetros cuantitativos se realizaron un ANDEVA y un análisis discriminante escalonado (SDA. Los descriptores cualitativos fueron analizados mediante el test de Chi-cuadrado (χ². Como resultado del estudio se identificaron

  15. Decommissioning funding: ethics, implementation, uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This status report on Decommissioning Funding: Ethics, Implementation, Uncertainties also draws on the experience of the NEA Working Party on Decommissioning and Dismantling (WPDD). The report offers, in a concise form, an overview of relevant considerations on decommissioning funding mechanisms with regard to ethics, implementation and uncertainties. Underlying ethical principles found in international agreements are identified, and factors influencing the accumulation and management of funds for decommissioning nuclear facilities are discussed together with the main sources of uncertainties of funding systems. (authors)

  16. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Najm, Habib; Galassi, R. Malpica; Valorani, M.

    2016-01-01

    We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

  17. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Najm, Habib

    2016-01-05

    We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

  18. The Uncertainty of Measurement Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ambrus, A. [Hungarian Food Safety Office, Budapest (Hungary)

    2009-07-15

    Factors affecting the uncertainty of measurement are explained, basic statistical formulae given, and the theoretical concept explained in the context of pesticide formulation analysis. Practical guidance is provided on how to determine individual uncertainty components within an analytical procedure. An extended and comprehensive table containing the relevant mathematical/statistical expressions elucidates the relevant underlying principles. Appendix I provides a practical elaborated example on measurement uncertainty estimation, above all utilizing experimental repeatability and reproducibility laboratory data. (author)

  19. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  20. Fuzzy randomness uncertainty in civil engineering and computational mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Möller, Bernd

    2004-01-01

    This book, for the first time, provides a coherent, overall concept for taking account of uncertainty in the analysis, the safety assessment, and the design of structures. The reader is introduced to the problem of uncertainty modeling and familiarized with particular uncertainty models. For simultaneously considering stochastic and non-stochastic uncertainty the superordinated uncertainty model fuzzy randomness, which contains real valued random variables as well as fuzzy variables as special cases, is presented. For this purpose basic mathematical knowledge concerning the fuzzy set theory and the theory of fuzzy random variables is imparted. The body of the book comprises the appropriate quantification of uncertain structural parameters, the fuzzy and fuzzy probabilistic structural analysis, the fuzzy probabilistic safety assessment, and the fuzzy cluster structural design. The completely new algorithms are described in detail and illustrated by way of demonstrative examples.

  1. On Commitments and Other Uncertainty Reduction Tools in Joint Action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael John

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we evaluate the proposal that a central function of commitments within joint action is to reduce various kinds of uncertainty, and that this accounts for the prevalence of commitments in joint action. While this idea is prima facie attractive, we argue that it faces two serious problems. First, commitments can only reduce uncertainty if they are credible, and accounting for the credibility of commitments proves not to be straightforward. Second, there are many other ways in which uncertainty is commonly reduced within joint actions, which raises the possibility that commitments may be superfluous. Nevertheless, we argue that the existence of these alternative uncertainty reduction processes does not make commitments superfluous after all but, rather, helps to explain how commitments may contribute in various ways to uncertainty reduction.

  2. State-independent uncertainty relations and entanglement detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Chen; Li, Jun-Li; Qiao, Cong-Feng

    2018-04-01

    The uncertainty relation is one of the key ingredients of quantum theory. Despite the great efforts devoted to this subject, most of the variance-based uncertainty relations are state-dependent and suffering from the triviality problem of zero lower bounds. Here we develop a method to get uncertainty relations with state-independent lower bounds. The method works by exploring the eigenvalues of a Hermitian matrix composed by Bloch vectors of incompatible observables and is applicable for both pure and mixed states and for arbitrary number of N-dimensional observables. The uncertainty relation for the incompatible observables can be explained by geometric relations related to the parallel postulate and the inequalities in Horn's conjecture on Hermitian matrix sum. Practical entanglement criteria are also presented based on the derived uncertainty relations.

  3. Use of probability tables for propagating uncertainties in neutronics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coste-Delclaux, M.; Diop, C.M.; Lahaye, S.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Moment-based probability table formalism is described. • Representation by probability tables of any uncertainty distribution is established. • Multiband equations for two kinds of uncertainty propagation problems are solved. • Numerical examples are provided and validated against Monte Carlo simulations. - Abstract: Probability tables are a generic tool that allows representing any random variable whose probability density function is known. In the field of nuclear reactor physics, this tool is currently used to represent the variation of cross-sections versus energy (neutron transport codes TRIPOLI4®, MCNP, APOLLO2, APOLLO3®, ECCO/ERANOS…). In the present article we show how we can propagate uncertainties, thanks to a probability table representation, through two simple physical problems: an eigenvalue problem (neutron multiplication factor) and a depletion problem.

  4. Scenario tree airline fleet planning for demand uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Repko, M.G.J.; Lopes dos Santos, Bruno F.

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes an innovative multi-period modeling approach to solve the airline fleet planning problem under demand uncertainty. The problem is modeled using a scenario tree approach. The tree is composed of nodes, which represent points of decision in multiple time stages of the planning

  5. Uncertainty in Fleet Renewal: A Case from Maritime Transportation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pantuso, Giovanni; Fagerholt, Kjetil; Wallace, Stein W.

    2016-01-01

    This paper addresses the fleet renewal problem and particularly the treatment of uncertainty in the maritime case. A stochastic programming model for the maritime fleet renewal problem is presented. The main contribution is that of assessing whether or not better decisions can be achieved by using...

  6. Handbook of management under uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    2001-01-01

    A mere few years ago it would have seemed odd to propose a Handbook on the treatment of management problems within a sphere of uncertainty. Even today, on the threshold of the third millennium, this statement may provoke a certain wariness. In fact, to resort to exact or random data, that is probable date, is quite normal and con­ venient, as we then know where we are going best, where we are proposing to go if all occurs as it is conceived and hoped for. To treat uncertain information, to accept a new principle and from there determined criteria, without being sure of oneself and confiding only in the will to better understand objects and phenomena, constitutes and compromise with a new form of understanding the behaviour of current beings that goes even further than simple rationality. Economic Science and particularly the use of its elements of configuration in the world of management, has imbued several generations with an analytical spirit that has given rise to the elaboration of theories widely accept...

  7. Perceptual uncertainty supports design reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Winger S. W.

    2018-06-01

    The unstructured, ambiguous figures used as design cues in the experiment were classified as being at high, moderate, and low ambiguity. Participants were required to use the ideas suggested by the visual cues to design a novel table. Results showed that different levels of ambiguity within the cues significantly influenced the quantity of idea development of expert designers, but not novice designers, whose idea generation remained relatively low across all levels of ambiguity. For experts, as the level of ambiguity in the cue increased so did the number of design ideas that were generated. Most design interpretations created by both experts and novices were affected by geometric contours within the figures. In addition, when viewing cues of high ambiguity, experts produced more interpretative transformations than when viewing cues of moderate or low ambiguity. Furthermore, experts produced significantly more new functions or meanings than novices. We claim that increased ambiguity within presented visual cues engenders uncertainty in designers that facilitates flexible transformations and interpretations that prevent premature commitment to uncreative solutions. Such results could be applied in design learning and education, focused on differences between experts and novices, to generalize the principles and strategies of interpretations by experts during concept sketching to train novices when face design problems, and the development of CACD tools to support designers.

  8. Uncertainty quantification in resonance absorption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.M.R.

    2012-01-01

    We assess the uncertainty in the resonance escape probability due to uncertainty in the neutron and radiation line widths for the first 21 resonances in 232 Th as given by . Simulation, quadrature and polynomial chaos methods are used and the resonance data are assumed to obey a beta distribution. We find the uncertainty in the total resonance escape probability to be the equivalent, in reactivity, of 75–130 pcm. Also shown are pdfs of the resonance escape probability for each resonance and the variation of the uncertainty with temperature. The viability of the polynomial chaos expansion method is clearly demonstrated.

  9. Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

  10. Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shull, A.H.

    1997-01-01

    An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper

  11. Climate Certainties and Uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morel, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    In issue 380 of Futuribles in December 2011, Antonin Pottier analysed in detail the workings of what is today termed 'climate scepticism' - namely the propensity of certain individuals to contest the reality of climate change on the basis of pseudo-scientific arguments. He emphasized particularly that what fuels the debate on climate change is, largely, the degree of uncertainty inherent in the consequences to be anticipated from observation of the facts, not the description of the facts itself. In his view, the main aim of climate sceptics is to block the political measures for combating climate change. However, since they do not admit to this political posture, they choose instead to deny the scientific reality. This month, Futuribles complements this socio-psychological analysis of climate-sceptical discourse with an - in this case, wholly scientific - analysis of what we know (or do not know) about climate change on our planet. Pierre Morel gives a detailed account of the state of our knowledge in the climate field and what we are able to predict in the medium/long-term. After reminding us of the influence of atmospheric meteorological processes on the climate, he specifies the extent of global warming observed since 1850 and the main origin of that warming, as revealed by the current state of knowledge: the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. He then describes the changes in meteorological regimes (showing also the limits of climate simulation models), the modifications of hydrological regimes, and also the prospects for rises in sea levels. He also specifies the mechanisms that may potentially amplify all these phenomena and the climate disasters that might ensue. Lastly, he shows what are the scientific data that cannot be disregarded, the consequences of which are now inescapable (melting of the ice-caps, rises in sea level etc.), the only remaining uncertainty in this connection being the date at which these things will happen. 'In this

  12. Uncertainty Quantification - an Overview

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2018-03-01

    1. Introduction to UQ 2. Low-rank tensors for representation of big/high-dimensional data 3. Inverse Problem via Bayesian Update 4. R-INLA and advance numerics for spatio-temporal statistics 5. High Performance Computing, parallel algorithms

  13. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

  14. Uncertainty enabled Sensor Observation Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornford, Dan; Williams, Matthew; Bastin, Lucy

    2010-05-01

    Almost all observations of reality are contaminated with errors, which introduce uncertainties into the actual observation result. Such uncertainty is often held to be a data quality issue, and quantification of this uncertainty is essential for the principled exploitation of the observations. Many existing systems treat data quality in a relatively ad-hoc manner, however if the observation uncertainty is a reliable estimate of the error on the observation with respect to reality then knowledge of this uncertainty enables optimal exploitation of the observations in further processes, or decision making. We would argue that the most natural formalism for expressing uncertainty is Bayesian probability theory. In this work we show how the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Observation Service can be implemented to enable the support of explicit uncertainty about observations. We show how the UncertML candidate standard is used to provide a rich and flexible representation of uncertainty in this context. We illustrate this on a data set of user contributed weather data where the INTAMAP interpolation Web Processing Service is used to help estimate the uncertainty on the observations of unknown quality, using observations with known uncertainty properties. We then go on to discuss the implications of uncertainty for a range of existing Open Geospatial Consortium standards including SWE common and Observations and Measurements. We discuss the difficult decisions in the design of the UncertML schema and its relation and usage within existing standards and show various options. We conclude with some indications of the likely future directions for UncertML in the context of Open Geospatial Consortium services.

  15. Subspace-based Inverse Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Data Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khuwaileh, B.A., E-mail: bakhuwai@ncsu.edu; Abdel-Khalik, H.S.

    2015-01-15

    Safety analysis and design optimization depend on the accurate prediction of various reactor attributes. Predictions can be enhanced by reducing the uncertainty associated with the attributes of interest. An inverse problem can be defined and solved to assess the sources of uncertainty, and experimental effort can be subsequently directed to further improve the uncertainty associated with these sources. In this work a subspace-based algorithm for inverse sensitivity/uncertainty quantification (IS/UQ) has been developed to enable analysts account for all sources of nuclear data uncertainties in support of target accuracy assessment-type analysis. An approximate analytical solution of the optimization problem is used to guide the search for the dominant uncertainty subspace. By limiting the search to a subspace, the degrees of freedom available for the optimization search are significantly reduced. A quarter PWR fuel assembly is modeled and the accuracy of the multiplication factor and the fission reaction rate are used as reactor attributes whose uncertainties are to be reduced. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithm. Our ongoing work is focusing on extending the proposed algorithm to account for various forms of feedback, e.g., thermal-hydraulics and depletion effects.

  16. Quantum Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, M.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.; Khrennikov, A.; Basieva, I.

    2011-01-01

    Recently a few authors pointed to a possibility to apply the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to cognitive psychology, in particular, to games of the Prisoners Dilemma (PD) type.6_18 In this paper, we discuss the problem of rationality in game theory and point out that the quantum uncertainty is similar to the uncertainty of knowledge, which a player feels subjectively in his decision-making.

  17. Triangular and Trapezoidal Fuzzy State Estimation with Uncertainty on Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Sadeghi Sarcheshmah

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new method for uncertainty analysis in fuzzy state estimation is proposed. The uncertainty is expressed in measurements. Uncertainties in measurements are modelled with different fuzzy membership functions (triangular and trapezoidal. To find the fuzzy distribution of any state variable, the problem is formulated as a constrained linear programming (LP optimization. The viability of the proposed method would be verified with the ones obtained from the weighted least squares (WLS and the fuzzy state estimation (FSE in the 6-bus system and in the IEEE-14 and 30 bus system.

  18. Generalized uncertainty relations and characteristic invariants for the multimode states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sudarshan, E.C.G.; Chiu, C.B.; Bhamathi, G.

    1995-01-01

    The close relationship between the zero-point energy, the uncertainty relation, coherent states, squeezed states, and correlated states for one mode is investigated. This group theoretic perspective of the problem enables the parametrization and identification of their multimode generalization. A simple and efficient method of determining the canonical structure of the generalized correlated states is presented. Implication of canonical commutation relations for correlations are not exhausted by the Heisenberg uncertainty relation, not even by the Schroedinger-Robertson uncertainty inequality, but there are relations in the multimode case that are the generalization of the Schroedinger-Robertson relation

  19. The solar neutrino problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahcall, J.N.

    1986-01-01

    The observed capture rate for solar neutrinos in the /sup 37/Cl detector is lower than the predicted capture rate. This discrepancy between theory and observation is known as the 'solar neutrino problem.' The author reviews the basic elements in this problem: the detector efficiency, the theory of stellar (solar) evolution, the nuclear physics of energy generation, and the uncertainties in the predictions. He also answers the questions of: So What? and What Next?

  20. Uncertainty estimation in nuclear material weighing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thaure, Bernard [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, Fontenay aux Roses, (France)

    2011-12-15

    The assessment of nuclear material quantities located in nuclear plants requires knowledge of additions and subtractions of amounts of different types of materials. Most generally, the quantity of nuclear material held is deduced from 3 parameters: a mass (or a volume of product); a concentration of nuclear material in the product considered; and an isotopic composition. Global uncertainties associated with nuclear material quantities depend upon the confidence level of results obtained in the measurement of every different parameter. Uncertainties are generally estimated by considering five influencing parameters (ISHIKAWA's rule): the material itself; the measurement system; the applied method; the environmental conditions; and the operator. A good practice guide, to be used to deal with weighing errors and problems encountered, is presented in the paper.

  1. Dealing with Uncertainties in Initial Orbit Determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armellin, Roberto; Di Lizia, Pierluigi; Zanetti, Renato

    2015-01-01

    A method to deal with uncertainties in initial orbit determination (IOD) is presented. This is based on the use of Taylor differential algebra (DA) to nonlinearly map the observation uncertainties from the observation space to the state space. When a minimum set of observations is available DA is used to expand the solution of the IOD problem in Taylor series with respect to measurement errors. When more observations are available high order inversion tools are exploited to obtain full state pseudo-observations at a common epoch. The mean and covariance of these pseudo-observations are nonlinearly computed by evaluating the expectation of high order Taylor polynomials. Finally, a linear scheme is employed to update the current knowledge of the orbit. Angles-only observations are considered and simplified Keplerian dynamics adopted to ease the explanation. Three test cases of orbit determination of artificial satellites in different orbital regimes are presented to discuss the feature and performances of the proposed methodology.

  2. Probability and uncertainty in nuclear safety decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pate-Cornell, M.E.

    1986-01-01

    In this paper, we examine some problems posed by the use of probabilities in Nuclear Safety decisions. We discuss some of the theoretical difficulties due to the collective nature of regulatory decisions, and, in particular, the calibration and the aggregation of risk information (e.g., experts opinions). We argue that, if one chooses numerical safety goals as a regulatory basis, one can reduce the constraints to an individual safety goal and a cost-benefit criterion. We show the relevance of risk uncertainties in this kind of regulatory framework. We conclude that, whereas expected values of future failure frequencies are adequate to show compliance with economic constraints, the use of a fractile (e.g., 95%) to be specified by the regulatory agency is justified to treat hazard uncertainties for the individual safety goal. (orig.)

  3. Representation and calculation of economic uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2002-01-01

    Management and decision making when certain information is available may be a matter of rationally choosing the optimal alternative by calculation of the utility function. When only uncertain information is available (which is most often the case) decision-making calls for more complex methods...... of representation and calculation and the basis for choosing the optimal alternative may become obscured by uncertainties of the utility function. In practice, several sources of uncertainties of the required information impede optimal decision making in the classical sense. In order to be able to better handle...... to uncertain economic numbers are discussed. When solving economic models for decision-making purposes calculation of uncertain functions will have to be carried out in addition to the basic arithmetical operations. This is a challenging numerical problem since improper methods of calculation may introduce...

  4. Calculation of uncertainties; Calculo de incertidumbres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diaz-Asencio, Misael [Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Cienfuegos (Cuba)

    2012-07-01

    One of the most important aspects in relation to the quality assurance in any analytical activity is the estimation of measurement uncertainty. There is general agreement that 'the expression of the result of a measurement is not complete without specifying its associated uncertainty'. An analytical process is the mechanism for obtaining methodological information (measurand) of a material system (population). This implies the need for the definition of the problem, the choice of methods for sampling and measurement and proper execution of these activities for obtaining information. The result of a measurement is only an approximation or estimate of the value of the measurand, which is complete only when accompanied by an estimate of the uncertainty of the analytical process. According to the 'Vocabulary of Basic and General Terms in Metrology' measurement uncertainty' is the parameter associated with the result of a measurement that characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand (or magnitude). This parameter could be a standard deviation or a confidence interval. The uncertainty evaluation requires detailed look at all possible sources, but not disproportionately. We can make a good estimate of the uncertainty concentrating efforts on the largest contributions. The key steps of the process of determining the uncertainty in the measurements are: - the specification of the measurand; - identification of the sources of uncertainty - the quantification of individual components of uncertainty, - calculate the combined standard uncertainty; - report of uncertainty. [Spanish] Uno de los aspectos mas importantes en relacion con el aseguramiento de la calidad en cualquier actividad analitica es la estimacion de la incertidumbre de la medicion. Existe el acuerdo general que 'la expresion del resultado de una medicion no esta completa sin especificar su incertidumbre asociada'. Un proceso analitico es el mecanismo

  5. Dealing with uncertainties in environmental burden of disease assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van der Sluijs Jeroen P

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs combine the number of people affected by disease or mortality in a population and the duration and severity of their condition into one number. The environmental burden of disease is the number of DALYs that can be attributed to environmental factors. Environmental burden of disease estimates enable policy makers to evaluate, compare and prioritize dissimilar environmental health problems or interventions. These estimates often have various uncertainties and assumptions which are not always made explicit. Besides statistical uncertainty in input data and parameters – which is commonly addressed – a variety of other types of uncertainties may substantially influence the results of the assessment. We have reviewed how different types of uncertainties affect environmental burden of disease assessments, and we give suggestions as to how researchers could address these uncertainties. We propose the use of an uncertainty typology to identify and characterize uncertainties. Finally, we argue that uncertainties need to be identified, assessed, reported and interpreted in order for assessment results to adequately support decision making.

  6. The survey reasarch about groundwater in a mine making use of the sour method to immerse at originl place in Xinjiang province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Yiqun; Yang Yihan

    2014-01-01

    Basing on a mine making use of a sour method to immerse at original place in Xiniang province, building up a monitor network of mine and its Surroundings groundwater, by the mispreads experiment at the spot and the Earth physical method to mointer Pollute scope and imitate the flow of groundwater and the movement of dissolve quality. Making use of the method speaking of to investigate groundwater in mineral layer completely. According to the investigating result, Comparing the original date of groundwater in mineral layer and the national Quality standard of groundwater to evaluate the present Pollute condition of groundwater existmg in the A # , B # mine ore aquifer. This studies Proves that Pollution mainly exists in the A # , B # mine ore aquifer and its surrounding limited area, groundwater upper or lower the ore aquifer is not affected by pollution. (authors)

  7. A commentary on model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, G.

    1994-01-01

    A framework is proposed for the identification of model and parameter uncertainties in risk assessment models. Two cases are distinguished; in the first case, a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive hypotheses (models) can be formulated, while, in the second, only one reference model is available. The relevance of this formulation to decision making and the communication of uncertainties is discussed

  8. Mama Software Features: Uncertainty Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruggiero, Christy E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Porter, Reid B. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-05-30

    This document reviews how the uncertainty in the calculations is being determined with test image data. The results of this testing give an ‘initial uncertainty’ number than can be used to estimate the ‘back end’ uncertainty in digital image quantification in images. Statisticians are refining these numbers as part of a UQ effort.

  9. Designing for Uncertainty: Three Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Scott

    2007-01-01

    Higher education wishes to get long life and good returns on its investment in learning spaces. Doing this has become difficult because rapid changes in information technology have created fundamental uncertainties about the future in which capital investments must deliver value. Three approaches to designing for this uncertainty are described…

  10. The measurement and inclusion of a stochastic ore-grade uncertainty in mine valuations using PDEs

    OpenAIRE

    Evatt, G. W.; Johnson, P. V.; Duck, P. W.; Howell, S. D.

    2010-01-01

    Mining companies world-wide are faced with the problem of how to accurately value and plan extraction projects subject to uncertainty in both future price and ore grade. Whilst the methodology of modelling price uncertainty is reasonably well understood, modelling ore-grade uncertainty is a much harder problem to formulate, and when attempts have been made the solutions have taken unfeasibly long times to compute. This paper provides a new partial differential equations approach to the proble...

  11. Characterization of sour cherry isolates of plum pox virus from the Volga Basin in Russia reveals a new cherry strain of the virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasa, Miroslav; Prikhodko, Yuri; Predajňa, Lukáš; Nagyová, Alžbeta; Shneyder, Yuri; Zhivaeva, Tatiana; Subr, Zdeno; Cambra, Mariano; Candresse, Thierry

    2013-09-01

    Plum pox virus (PPV) is the causal agent of sharka, the most detrimental virus disease of stone fruit trees worldwide. PPV isolates have been assigned into seven distinct strains, of which PPV-C regroups the genetically distinct isolates detected in several European countries on cherry hosts. Here, three complete and several partial genomic sequences of PPV isolates from sour cherry trees in the Volga River basin of Russia have been determined. The comparison of complete genome sequences has shown that the nucleotide identity values with other PPV isolates reached only 77.5 to 83.5%. Phylogenetic analyses clearly assigned the RU-17sc, RU-18sc, and RU-30sc isolates from cherry to a distinct cluster, most closely related to PPV-C and, to a lesser extent, PPV-W. Based on their natural infection of sour cherry trees and genomic characterization, the PPV isolates reported here represent a new strain of PPV, for which the name PPV-CR (Cherry Russia) is proposed. The unique amino acids conserved among PPV-CR and PPV-C cherry-infecting isolates (75 in total) are mostly distributed within the central part of P1, NIa, and the N terminus of the coat protein (CP), making them potential candidates for genetic determinants of the ability to infect cherry species or of adaptation to these hosts. The variability observed within 14 PPV-CR isolates analyzed in this study (0 to 2.6% nucleotide divergence in partial CP sequences) and the identification of these isolates in different localities and cultivation conditions suggest the efficient establishment and competitiveness of the PPV-CR in the environment. A specific primer pair has been developed, allowing the specific reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction detection of PPV-CR isolates.

  12. Scientific uncertainties and climate risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, M.

    2005-01-01

    Human activities have induced a significant change in the Earth's atmospheric composition and, most likely, this trend will increase throughout the coming decades. During the last decades, the mean temperature has actually increased by the expected amount. Moreover, the geographical distribution of the warming, and day-to-night temperature variation have evolved as predicted. The magnitude of those changes is relatively small for the time being, but is expected to increase alarmingly during the coming decades. Greenhouse warming is a representative example of the problems of sustainable development: long-term risks can be estimated on a rational basis from scientific laws alone, but the non-specialist is generally not prepared to understand the steps required. However, even the non-specialist has obviously the right to decide about his way of life and the inheritance that he would like to leave for his children, but it is preferable that he is fully informed before making his decisions. Dialog, mutual understanding and confidence must prevail between Science and Society to avoid irrational actions. Controversy among experts is quite frequent. In the case of greenhouse warming, a commendable collective expertise has drastically reduced possible confusion. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was created jointly by the World Meteorology Organization (WMO) and the UN Program for the Environment (UNEP). Its reports evaluate the state of knowledge on past and future global climate changes, their impact, and the possibility of controlling anthropogenic emissions. The main targeted readers are, nevertheless, non-specialists, who should be made aware of results deduced from approaches that they may not be able to follow step by step. Moreover, these results, in particular, future projections, are, and will remain, subject to some uncertainty, which a fair description of the state of knowledge must include. Many misunderstandings between writers and readers can

  13. O problema combinado de planejamento da produção e corte de estoque sob incertezas: aplicação em fábricas de móveis de pequeno porte The integrated problem of production planning and cutting stock under uncertainties: application in small-scale furniture plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Alem

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Esse trabalho investiga um problema combinado de planejamento da produção e corte de estoque comum em fábricas de móveis de pequeno porte, onde os custos de produção envolvidos no processo de manufatura e as demandas dos produtos não são conhecidos com precisão. Para lidar com essas incertezas, foram propostos modelos de otimização robusta que permitem controlar o conservadorismo da solução de acordo com a atitude do decisor em relação ao risco. Experimentos computacionais baseados em dados reais de uma planta moveleira mostraram que é possível obter soluções robustas sem sacrificar em demasia o custo total. Além disso, observou-se que estratégias tipicamente utilizadas na prática para lidar com as incertezas podem gerar planos de produção com custos totais proibitivos.This paper investigates an integrated production planning and cutting stock problem that is common in small-scale furniture plants, in which the production costs involved in the manufacturing process and the demands for the products are not known precisely. To deal with these uncertainties, robust optimization models that control the conservatism of the solution according to the attitude of the decision maker towards risk were proposed. Computational experiments based on real data from a furniture plant showed that it is possible to obtain robust solutions without overly sacrificing the total cost. In addition, it was observed that commonly used strategies to deal with uncertainty issues can result in production plans with prohibitive total costs.

  14. Uncertainties of Molecular Structural Parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Császár, Attila G.

    2014-01-01

    Full text: The most fundamental property of a molecule is its three-dimensional (3D) structure formed by its constituent atoms (see, e.g., the perfectly regular hexagon associated with benzene). It is generally accepted that knowledge of the detailed structure of a molecule is a prerequisite to determine most of its other properties. What nowadays is a seemingly simple concept, namely that molecules have a structure, was introduced into chemistry in the 19th century. Naturally, the word changed its meaning over the years. Elemental analysis, simple structural formulae, two-dimensional and then 3D structures mark the development of the concept to its modern meaning. When quantum physics and quantum chemistry emerged in the 1920s, the simple concept associating structure with a three-dimensional object seemingly gained a firm support. Nevertheless, what seems self-explanatory today is in fact not so straightforward to justify within quantum mechanics. In quantum chemistry the concept of an equilibrium structure of a molecule is tied to the Born-Oppenheimer approximation but beyond the adiabatic separation of the motions of the nuclei and the electrons the meaning of a structure is still slightly obscured. Putting the conceptual difficulties aside, there are several experimental, empirical, and theoretical techniques to determine structures of molecules. One particular problem, strongly related to the question of uncertainties of “measured” or “computed” structural parameters, is that all the different techniques correspond to different structure definitions and thus yield different structural parameters. Experiments probing the structure of molecules rely on a number of structure definitions, to name just a few: r_0, r_g, r_a, r_s, r_m, etc., and one should also consider the temperature dependence of most of these structural parameters which differ from each other in the way the rovibrational motions of the molecules are treated and how the averaging is

  15. Measurement uncertainty: Friend or foe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Infusino, Ilenia; Panteghini, Mauro

    2018-02-02

    The definition and enforcement of a reference measurement system, based on the implementation of metrological traceability of patients' results to higher order reference methods and materials, together with a clinically acceptable level of measurement uncertainty, are fundamental requirements to produce accurate and equivalent laboratory results. The uncertainty associated with each step of the traceability chain should be governed to obtain a final combined uncertainty on clinical samples fulfilling the requested performance specifications. It is important that end-users (i.e., clinical laboratory) may know and verify how in vitro diagnostics (IVD) manufacturers have implemented the traceability of their calibrators and estimated the corresponding uncertainty. However, full information about traceability and combined uncertainty of calibrators is currently very difficult to obtain. Laboratory professionals should investigate the need to reduce the uncertainty of the higher order metrological references and/or to increase the precision of commercial measuring systems. Accordingly, the measurement uncertainty should not be considered a parameter to be calculated by clinical laboratories just to fulfil the accreditation standards, but it must become a key quality indicator to describe both the performance of an IVD measuring system and the laboratory itself. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Huovinen, T.

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.)

  17. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pulkkinen, U; Huovinen, T [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.).

  18. Uncertainty quantification for PZT bimorph actuators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, Nikolas; Smith, Ralph C.; Crews, John

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we discuss the development of a high fidelity model for a PZT bimorph actuator used for micro-air vehicles, which includes the Robobee. We developed a high-fidelity model for the actuator using the homogenized energy model (HEM) framework, which quantifies the nonlinear, hysteretic, and rate-dependent behavior inherent to PZT in dynamic operating regimes. We then discussed an inverse problem on the model. We included local and global sensitivity analysis of the parameters in the high-fidelity model. Finally, we will discuss the results of Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification on the HEM.

  19. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  20. Construction of uncertainty sets for portfolio selection problems

    OpenAIRE

    Wiechers, Christof

    2011-01-01

    While modern portfolio theory grounds on the trade-off between portfolio return and portfolio variance to determine the optimal investment decision, postmodern portfolio theory uses downside risk measures instead of the variance. Prominent examples are given by the risk measures Value-at-Risk and its coherent extension, Conditional Value-at-Risk. When avoiding distributional assumptions on the process that generates the risky assets' returns, historical return data or expert knowledge remain ...