Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

1980-09-01

This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gibson EJ

2018-03-01

Full Text Available EJ Gibson,1 N Begum,1 I Koblbauer,1 G Dranitsaris,2 D Liew,3 P McEwan,4 AA Tahami Monfared,5,6 Y Yuan,7 A Juarez-Garcia,7 D Tyas,8 M Lees9 1Wickenstones Ltd, Didcot, UK; 2Augmentium Pharma Consulting Inc, Toronto, ON, Canada; 3Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; 4Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd, Cardiff, UK; 5Bristol-Myers Squibb Canada, Saint-Laurent, QC Canada; 6Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; 7Bristol-Myers Squibb, Princeton, NJ, USA; 8Bristol-Myers Squibb, Uxbridge, UK; 9Bristol-Myers Squibb, Rueil-Malmaison, France Background: Economic models in oncology are commonly based on the three-state partitioned survival model (PSM distinguishing between progression-free and progressive states. However, the heterogeneity of responses observed in immuno-oncology (I-O suggests that new approaches may be appropriate to reflect disease dynamics meaningfully. Materials and methods: This study explored the impact of incorporating immune-specific health states into economic models of I-O therapy. Two variants of the PSM and a Markov model were populated with data from one clinical trial in metastatic melanoma patients. Short-term modeled outcomes were benchmarked to the clinical trial data and a lifetime model horizon provided estimates of life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs. Results: The PSM-based models produced short-term outcomes closely matching the trial outcomes. Adding health states generated increased QALYs while providing a more granular representation of outcomes for decision making. The Markov model gave the greatest level of detail on outcomes but gave short-term results which diverged from those of the trial (overstating year 1 progression-free survival by around 60%. Conclusion: Increased sophistication in the representation of disease dynamics in economic models

Does Investors' Sophistication Affect Persistence and Pricing of Discretionary Accruals?

OpenAIRE

Lanfeng Kao

2007-01-01

This paper examines whether the sophistication of market investors influences management's strategy on discretionary accounting choice, and thus changes the persistence of discretionary accruals. The results show that the persistence of discretionary accruals for firms face with naive investors is lower than that for firms face with sophisticated investors. The results also demonstrate that sophisticated investors indeed incorporate the implications of current earnings components into future ...

The use of geographical information systems in socio-economic studies

OpenAIRE

Daplyn, P.; Cropley, J.; Treagust, S.; Gordon, A.

1994-01-01

Geographical information systems (GIS) have found wide and growing applications, as digital remote-sensing data and computer technology have become more sophisticated, more easily available and less expensive. NRI recently undertook preliminary research into potential socio-economic applications of GIS. The feasibility of utilizing spatial data, available in GIS, to model socio-economic relationships was examined. It included the following steps: (a) identification of hypothetical relationshi...

The Relationship between Logistics Sophistication and Drivers of the Outsourcing of Logistics Activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Wanke

2008-10-01

Full Text Available A strong link has been established between operational excellence and the degree of sophistication of logistics organization, a function of factors such as performance monitoring, investment in Information Technology [IT] and the formalization of logistics organization, as proposed in the Bowersox, Daugherty, Dröge, Germain and Rogers (1992 Leading Edge model. At the same time, shippers have been increasingly outsourcing their logistics activities to third party providers. This paper, based on a survey with large Brazilian shippers, addresses a gap in the literature by investigating the relationship between dimensions of logistics organization sophistication and drivers of logistics outsourcing. To this end, the dimensions behind the logistics sophistication construct were first investigated. Results from factor analysis led to the identification of six dimensions of logistics sophistication. By means of multivariate logistical regression analyses it was possible to relate some of these dimensions, such as the formalization of the logistics organization, to certain drivers of the outsourcing of logistics activities of Brazilian shippers, such as cost savings. These results indicate the possibility of segmenting shippers according to characteristics of their logistics organization, which may be particularly useful to logistics service providers.

Economic Modelling in Institutional Economic Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wadim Strielkowski

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Our paper is centered around the formation of theory of institutional modelling that includes principles and ideas reflecting the laws of societal development within the framework of institutional economic theory. We scrutinize and discuss the scientific principles of this institutional modelling that are increasingly postulated by the classics of institutional theory and find their way into the basics of the institutional economics. We propose scientific ideas concerning the new innovative approaches to institutional modelling. These ideas have been devised and developed on the basis of the results of our own original design, as well as on the formalisation and measurements of economic institutions, their functioning and evolution. Moreover, we consider the applied aspects of the institutional theory of modelling and employ them in our research for formalizing our results and maximising the practical outcome of our paper. Our results and findings might be useful for the researchers and stakeholders searching for the systematic and comprehensive description of institutional level modelling, the principles involved in this process and the main provisions of the institutional theory of economic modelling.

The conceptualization and measurement of cognitive health sophistication.

Science.gov (United States)

Bodie, Graham D; Collins, William B; Jensen, Jakob D; Davis, Lashara A; Guntzviller, Lisa M; King, Andy J

2013-01-01

This article develops a conceptualization and measure of cognitive health sophistication--the complexity of an individual's conceptual knowledge about health. Study 1 provides initial validity evidence for the measure--the Healthy-Unhealthy Other Instrument--by showing its association with other cognitive health constructs indicative of higher health sophistication. Study 2 presents data from a sample of low-income adults to provide evidence that the measure does not depend heavily on health-related vocabulary or ethnicity. Results from both studies suggest that the Healthy-Unhealthy Other Instrument can be used to capture variability in the sophistication or complexity of an individual's health-related schematic structures on the basis of responses to two simple open-ended questions. Methodological advantages of the Healthy-Unhealthy Other Instrument and suggestions for future research are highlighted in the discussion.

Macro-economic environmental models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wier, M.

1993-01-01

In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

Probabilistic Sophistication, Second Order Stochastic Dominance, and Uncertainty Aversion

OpenAIRE

Simone Cerreia-Vioglio; Fabio Maccheroni; Massimo Marinacci; Luigi Montrucchio

2010-01-01

We study the interplay of probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance, and uncertainty aversion, three fundamental notions in choice under uncertainty. In particular, our main result, Theorem 2, characterizes uncertainty averse preferences that satisfy second order stochastic dominance, as well as uncertainty averse preferences that are probabilistically sophisticated.

Automatically Assessing Lexical Sophistication: Indices, Tools, Findings, and Application

Science.gov (United States)

Kyle, Kristopher; Crossley, Scott A.

2015-01-01

This study explores the construct of lexical sophistication and its applications for measuring second language lexical and speaking proficiency. In doing so, the study introduces the Tool for the Automatic Analysis of LExical Sophistication (TAALES), which calculates text scores for 135 classic and newly developed lexical indices related to word…

A predictive modeling approach to increasing the economic effectiveness of disease management programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayerstadler, Andreas; Benstetter, Franz; Heumann, Christian; Winter, Fabian

2014-09-01

Predictive Modeling (PM) techniques are gaining importance in the worldwide health insurance business. Modern PM methods are used for customer relationship management, risk evaluation or medical management. This article illustrates a PM approach that enables the economic potential of (cost-) effective disease management programs (DMPs) to be fully exploited by optimized candidate selection as an example of successful data-driven business management. The approach is based on a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) that is easy to apply for health insurance companies. By means of a small portfolio from an emerging country, we show that our GLM approach is stable compared to more sophisticated regression techniques in spite of the difficult data environment. Additionally, we demonstrate for this example of a setting that our model can compete with the expensive solutions offered by professional PM vendors and outperforms non-predictive standard approaches for DMP selection commonly used in the market.

Systematization and sophistication of a comprehensive sensitivity analysis program. Phase 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

2004-02-01

This study developed minute estimation by adopting comprehensive sensitivity analytical program for reliability of TRU waste repository concepts in a crystalline rock condition. We examined each components and groundwater scenario of geological repository and prepared systematic bases to examine the reliability from the point of comprehensiveness. Models and data are sophisticated to examine the reliability. Based on an existing TRU waste repository concepts, effects of parameters to nuclide migration were quantitatively classified. Those parameters, that will be decided quantitatively, are such as site character of natural barrier and design specification of engineered barriers. Considering the feasibility of those figures of specifications, reliability is re-examined on combinations of those parameters within a practical range. Future issues are; Comprehensive representation of hybrid geosphere model including the fractured medium and permeable matrix medium. Sophistication of tools to develop the reliable combinations of parameters. It is significant to continue this study because the disposal concepts and specification of TRU nuclides containing waste on various sites shall be determined rationally and safely through these studies. (author)

The role of sophisticated accounting system in strategy management

OpenAIRE

Naranjo Gil, David

2004-01-01

Organizations are designing more sophisticated accounting information systems to meet the strategic goals and enhance their performance. This study examines the effect of accounting information system design on the performance of organizations pursuing different strategic priorities. The alignment between sophisticated accounting information systems and organizational strategy is analyzed. The enabling effect of the accounting information system on performance is also examined. Relationships ...

Financial Literacy and Financial Sophistication in the Older Population

Science.gov (United States)

Lusardi, Annamaria; Mitchell, Olivia S.; Curto, Vilsa

2017-01-01

Using a special-purpose module implemented in the Health and Retirement Study, we evaluate financial sophistication in the American population over the age of 50. We combine several financial literacy questions into an overall index to highlight which questions best capture financial sophistication and examine the sensitivity of financial literacy responses to framing effects. Results show that many older respondents are not financially sophisticated: they fail to grasp essential aspects of risk diversification, asset valuation, portfolio choice, and investment fees. Subgroups with notable deficits include women, the least educated, non-Whites, and those over age 75. In view of the fact that retirees increasingly must take on responsibility for their own retirement security, such meager levels of knowledge have potentially serious and negative implications. PMID:28553191

Financial Literacy and Financial Sophistication in the Older Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Lusardi, Annamaria; Mitchell, Olivia S; Curto, Vilsa

2014-10-01

Using a special-purpose module implemented in the Health and Retirement Study, we evaluate financial sophistication in the American population over the age of 50. We combine several financial literacy questions into an overall index to highlight which questions best capture financial sophistication and examine the sensitivity of financial literacy responses to framing effects. Results show that many older respondents are not financially sophisticated: they fail to grasp essential aspects of risk diversification, asset valuation, portfolio choice, and investment fees. Subgroups with notable deficits include women, the least educated, non-Whites, and those over age 75. In view of the fact that retirees increasingly must take on responsibility for their own retirement security, such meager levels of knowledge have potentially serious and negative implications.

The Impact of Financial Sophistication on Adjustable Rate Mortgage Ownership

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Hyrum; Finke, Michael S.; Huston, Sandra J.

2011-01-01

The influence of a financial sophistication scale on adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) borrowing is explored. Descriptive statistics and regression analysis using recent data from the Survey of Consumer Finances reveal that ARM borrowing is driven by both the least and most financially sophisticated households but for different reasons. Less…

Exploring the predictive power of interaction terms in a sophisticated risk equalization model using regression trees.

Science.gov (United States)

van Veen, S H C M; van Kleef, R C; van de Ven, W P M M; van Vliet, R C J A

2018-02-01

This study explores the predictive power of interaction terms between the risk adjusters in the Dutch risk equalization (RE) model of 2014. Due to the sophistication of this RE-model and the complexity of the associations in the dataset (N = ~16.7 million), there are theoretically more than a million interaction terms. We used regression tree modelling, which has been applied rarely within the field of RE, to identify interaction terms that statistically significantly explain variation in observed expenses that is not already explained by the risk adjusters in this RE-model. The interaction terms identified were used as additional risk adjusters in the RE-model. We found evidence that interaction terms can improve the prediction of expenses overall and for specific groups in the population. However, the prediction of expenses for some other selective groups may deteriorate. Thus, interactions can reduce financial incentives for risk selection for some groups but may increase them for others. Furthermore, because regression trees are not robust, additional criteria are needed to decide which interaction terms should be used in practice. These criteria could be the right incentive structure for risk selection and efficiency or the opinion of medical experts. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

21st Century Environmental Challenges: The Need For a New Economics

OpenAIRE

Michie, Jonathan; Oughton, Christine

2011-01-01

Research on environmental economics and policy has been dominated by neoclassical theory. While there have been advances in this approach, including more sophisticated analysis of imperfect information and time, and the development of endogenous growth theory, neoclassical models contain a number of underlying characteristics that limit their relevance for modelling firm behaviour especially in relation to environmental issues, innovation and change. The limitations spring fundamentally from ...

Cognitive Load and Strategic Sophistication

OpenAIRE

Allred, Sarah; Duffy, Sean; Smith, John

2013-01-01

We study the relationship between the cognitive load manipulation and strategic sophistication. The cognitive load manipulation is designed to reduce the subject's cognitive resources that are available for deliberation on a choice. In our experiment, subjects are placed under a large cognitive load (given a difficult number to remember) or a low cognitive load (given a number which is not difficult to remember). Subsequently, the subjects play a one-shot game then they are asked to recall...

Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

2010-12-01

Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

Moral foundations and political attitudes: The moderating role of political sophistication.

Science.gov (United States)

Milesi, Patrizia

2016-08-01

Political attitudes can be associated with moral concerns. This research investigated whether people's level of political sophistication moderates this association. Based on the Moral Foundations Theory, this article examined whether political sophistication moderates the extent to which reliance on moral foundations, as categories of moral concerns, predicts judgements about policy positions. With this aim, two studies examined four policy positions shown by previous research to be best predicted by the endorsement of Sanctity, that is, the category of moral concerns focused on the preservation of physical and spiritual purity. The results showed that reliance on Sanctity predicted political sophisticates' judgements, as opposed to those of unsophisticates, on policy positions dealing with equal rights for same-sex and unmarried couples and with euthanasia. Political sophistication also interacted with Fairness endorsement, which includes moral concerns for equal treatment of everybody and reciprocity, in predicting judgements about equal rights for unmarried couples, and interacted with reliance on Authority, which includes moral concerns for obedience and respect for traditional authorities, in predicting opposition to stem cell research. Those findings suggest that, at least for these particular issues, endorsement of moral foundations can be associated with political attitudes more strongly among sophisticates than unsophisticates. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

Economic modeling of HIV treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, Kit N

2010-05-01

To review the general literature on microeconomic modeling and key points that must be considered in the general assessment of economic modeling reports, discuss the evolution of HIV economic models and identify models that illustrate this development over time, as well as examples of current studies. Recommend improvements in HIV economic modeling. Recent economic modeling studies of HIV include examinations of scaling up antiretroviral (ARV) in South Africa, screening prior to use of abacavir, preexposure prophylaxis, early start of ARV in developing countries and cost-effectiveness comparisons of specific ARV drugs using data from clinical trials. These studies all used extensively published second-generation Markov models in their analyses. There have been attempts to simplify approaches to cost-effectiveness estimates by using simple decision trees or cost-effectiveness calculations with short-time horizons. However, these approaches leave out important cumulative economic effects that will not appear early in a treatment. Many economic modeling studies were identified in the 'gray' literature, but limited descriptions precluded an assessment of their adherence to modeling guidelines, and thus to the validity of their findings. There is a need for developing third-generation models to accommodate new knowledge about adherence, adverse effects, and viral resistance.

Sophisticating a naive Liapunov function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.; Lewins, J.D.

1985-01-01

The art of the direct method of Liapunov to determine system stability is to construct a suitable Liapunov or V function where V is to be positive definite (PD), to shrink to a center, which may be conveniently chosen as the origin, and where V is the negative definite (ND). One aid to the art is to solve an approximation to the system equations in order to provide a candidate V function. It can happen, however, that the V function is not strictly ND but vanishes at a finite number of isolated points. Naively, one anticipates that stability has been demonstrated since the trajectory of the system at such points is only momentarily tangential and immediately enters a region of inward directed trajectories. To demonstrate stability rigorously requires the construction of a sophisticated Liapunov function from what can be called the naive original choice. In this paper, the authors demonstrate the method of perturbing the naive function in the context of the well-known second-order oscillator and then apply the method to a more complicated problem based on a prompt jump model for a nuclear fission reactor

ECONOMIC MODELING PROCESSES USING MATLAB

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anamaria G. MACOVEI

2008-06-01

Full Text Available To study economic phenomena and processes using mathem atical modeling, and to determine the approximatesolution to a problem we need to choose a method of calculation and a numerical computer program, namely thepackage of programs MatLab. Any economic process or phenomenon is a mathematical description of h is behavior,and thus draw up an economic and mathematical model that has the following stages: formulation of the problem, theanalysis process modeling, the production model and design verification, validation and implementation of the model.This article is presented an economic model and its modeling is using mathematical equations and software packageMatLab, which helps us approximation effective solution. As data entry is considered the net cost, the cost of direct andtotal cost and the link between them. I presented the basic formula for determining the total cost. Economic modelcalculations were made in MatLab software package and with graphic representation of its interpretation of the resultsachieved in terms of our specific problem.

Sophisticated Fowl: The Complex Behaviour and Cognitive Skills of Chickens and Red Junglefowl

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Garnham

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The world’s most numerous bird, the domestic chicken, and their wild ancestor, the red junglefowl, have long been used as model species for animal behaviour research. Recently, this research has advanced our understanding of the social behaviour, personality, and cognition of fowl, and demonstrated their sophisticated behaviour and cognitive skills. Here, we overview some of this research, starting with describing research investigating the well-developed senses of fowl, before presenting how socially and cognitively complex they can be. The realisation that domestic chickens, our most abundant production animal, are behaviourally and cognitively sophisticated should encourage an increase in general appraise and fascination towards them. In turn, this should inspire increased use of them as both research and hobby animals, as well as improvements in their unfortunately often poor welfare.

Aristotle and Social-Epistemic Rhetoric: The Systematizing of the Sophistic Legacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, James E.

While Aristotle's philosophical views are more foundational than those of many of the Older Sophists, Aristotle's rhetorical theories inherit and incorporate many of the central tenets ascribed to Sophistic rhetoric, albeit in a more systematic fashion, as represented in the "Rhetoric." However, Aristotle was more than just a rhetorical…

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

2015-04-01

Windstorms can cause significant financial damage and they rank among the most hazardous meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Risk associated with windstorms involves the combination of hazardous weather conditions, such as high wind gust speeds, and socio-economic factors, such as the distribution of assets as well as their susceptibilities to damage. A sophisticated risk assessment is important in a wide range of areas and has benefits for e.g. the insurance industry. However, a sophisticated risk assessment needs a large sample of storm events for which high-resolution, quantitative meteorological and/or loss data are available. Latter is typically an aggravating factor. For present-day windstorms in Switzerland, the data basis is generally sufficient to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated impacts. In contrast, historic windstorms are usually described by graphical depictions of the event and/or by weather and loss reports. The information on historic weather events is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. It has primarily been the field of activity of environmental historians to study historic weather extremes and their impacts. Furthermore, the scarce availability of atmospheric datasets reaching back sufficiently in time has so far limited the analysis of historic weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis currently spanning 1871 to 2012, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of historic weather events. However, the 2°×2° latitude-longitude grid of the 20CR is too coarse to realistically represent the complex orography of Switzerland, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of smaller-scale features of the surface wind field influenced by the local orography. Using the 20CR as a starting point, this study illustrates a method to

Financial Sophistication and the Distribution of the Welfare Cost of Inflation

OpenAIRE

Paola Boel; Gabriele Camera

2009-01-01

The welfare cost of anticipated inflation is quantified in a calibrated model of the U.S. economy that exhibits tractable equilibrium dispersion in wealth and earnings. Inflation does not generate large losses in societal welfare, yet its impact varies noticeably across segments of society depending also on the financial sophistication of the economy. If money is the only asset, then inflation hurts mostly the wealthier and more productive agents, while those poorer and less productive may ev...

HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandrik, A.M.

2012-01-01

The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

PAUL AND SOPHISTIC RHETORIC: A PERSPECTIVE ON HIS ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

use of modern rhetorical theories but analyses the letter in terms of the clas- ..... If a critical reader would have had the traditional anti-sophistic arsenal ..... pressions and that 'rhetoric' is mainly a matter of communicating these thoughts.

Isocratean Discourse Theory and Neo-Sophistic Pedagogy: Implications for the Composition Classroom.

Science.gov (United States)

Blair, Kristine L.

With the recent interest in the fifth century B.C. theories of Protagoras and Gorgias come assumptions about the philosophical affinity of the Greek educator Isocrates to this pair of older sophists. Isocratean education in discourse, with its emphasis on collaborative political discourse, falls within recent definitions of a sophist curriculum.…

Introduction to Economic Analysis

OpenAIRE

R. Preston McAfee

2005-01-01

This book presents introductory economics ("principles") material using standard mathematical tools, including calculus. It is designed for a relatively sophisticated undergraduate who has not taken a basic university course in economics. It also contains the standard intermediate microeconomics material and some material that ought to be standard but is not. The book can easily serve as an intermediate microeconomics text. The focus of this book is on the conceptual tools and not on fluff. M...

USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camelia Madalina Orac

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

Network models in economics and finance

CERN Document Server

Pardalos, Panos; Rassias, Themistocles

2014-01-01

Using network models to investigate the interconnectivity in modern economic systems allows researchers to better understand and explain some economic phenomena. This volume presents contributions by known experts and active researchers in economic and financial network modeling. Readers are provided with an understanding of the latest advances in network analysis as applied to economics, finance, corporate governance, and investments. Moreover, recent advances in market network analysis  that focus on influential techniques for market graph analysis are also examined. Young researchers will find this volume particularly useful in facilitating their introduction to this new and fascinating field. Professionals in economics, financial management, various technologies, and network analysis, will find the network models presented in this book beneficial in analyzing the interconnectivity in modern economic systems.

Economic models for battery energy storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reckrodt, R.C.; Anderson, M.D.; Kluczny, R.M.

1990-01-01

While the technology required to produce viable Battery Energy Storage System exists, the economic feasibility (cost vs. benefits) of building these systems requires justification. First, a generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer-side-of-the meter. Next, two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at UM-Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Differences were resolved on a point by point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. In this paper four specific cases are evaluated and compared. The results are as predicted, since comparison was made with two known models

Models of Economic Analysis

OpenAIRE

Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

2013-01-01

The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

2000-01-01

Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

Building Models in the Classroom: Taking Advantage of Sophisticated Geomorphic Numerical Tools Using a Simple Graphical User Interface

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, S. G.; Koons, P. O.; Gerbi, C. C.; Capps, D. K.; Tucker, G. E.; Rogers, Z. A.

2014-12-01

Sophisticated numerical tools exist for modeling geomorphic processes and linking them to tectonic and climatic systems, but they are often seen as inaccessible for users with an exploratory level of interest. We have improved the accessibility of landscape evolution models by producing a simple graphics user interface (GUI) that takes advantage of the Channel-Hillslope Integrated Landscape Development (CHILD) model. Model access is flexible: the user can edit values for basic geomorphic, tectonic, and climate parameters, or obtain greater control by defining the spatiotemporal distributions of those parameters. Users can make educated predictions by choosing their own parametric values for the governing equations and interpreting the results immediately through model graphics. This method of modeling allows users to iteratively build their understanding through experimentation. Use of this GUI is intended for inquiry and discovery-based learning activities. We discuss a number of examples of how the GUI can be used at the upper high school, introductory university, and advanced university level. Effective teaching modules initially focus on an inquiry-based example guided by the instructor. As students become familiar with the GUI and the CHILD model, the class can shift to more student-centered exploration and experimentation. To make model interpretations more robust, digital elevation models can be imported and direct comparisons can be made between CHILD model results and natural topography. The GUI is available online through the University of Maine's Earth and Climate Sciences website, through the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) model repository, or by contacting the corresponding author.

HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A.M. Gandrik

2012-01-01

The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

The Need of a New Economic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandru Cătălin POPA

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

Cognitive ability rivals the effect of political sophistication on ideological voting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hebbelstrup Rye Rasmussen, Stig

2016-01-01

This article examines the impact of cognitive ability on ideological voting. We find, using a US sample and a Danish sample, that the effect of cognitive ability rivals the effect of the traditionally strongest predicter of ideological voting political sophistication. Furthermore, the results...... are consistent with the effect of cognitive ability being partly mediated by political sophistication. Much of the effect of cognitive ability remains however and is not explained by differences in education or Openness to experience either. The implications of these results for democratic theory are discussed....

Economic communication model set

Science.gov (United States)

Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

2017-06-01

This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2008-01-01

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

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Lu Bo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

Model confirmation in climate economics

Science.gov (United States)

Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

2016-01-01

Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

2010-01-01

Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2008-01-01

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

Lexical Complexity Development from Dynamic Systems Theory Perspective: Lexical Density, Diversity, and Sophistication

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reza Kalantari

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This longitudinal case study explored Iranian EFL learners’ lexical complexity (LC through the lenses of Dynamic Systems Theory (DST. Fifty independent essays written by five intermediate to advanced female EFL learners in a TOEFL iBT preparation course over six months constituted the corpus of this study. Three Coh-Metrix indices (Graesser, McNamara, Louwerse, & Cai, 2004; McNamara & Graesser, 2012, three Lexical Complexity Analyzer indices (Lu, 2010, 2012; Lu & Ai, 2011, and four Vocabprofile indices (Cobb, 2000 were selected to measure different dimensions of LC. Results of repeated measures analysis of variance (RM ANOVA indicated an improvement with regard to only lexical sophistication. Positive and significant relationships were found between time and mean values in Academic Word List and Beyond-2000 as indicators of lexical sophistication. The remaining seven indices of LC, falling short of significance, tended to flatten over the course of this writing program. Correlation analyses among LC indices indicated that lexical density enjoyed positive correlations with lexical sophistication. However, lexical diversity revealed no significant correlations with both lexical density and lexical sophistication. This study suggests that DST perspective specifies a viable foundation for analyzing lexical complexity

Conceptual model of management steadfast economic development production-economic systems

OpenAIRE

Prokhorova, V.

2010-01-01

The article is devoted developments of conceptual model of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems. Features are certain, the algorithm of impulse is offered and intercommunication of contours of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems is investigational

Economic model of pipeline transportation systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banks, W. F.

1977-07-29

The objective of the work reported here was to develop a model which could be used to assess the economic effects of energy-conservative technological innovations upon the pipeline industry. The model is a dynamic simulator which accepts inputs of two classes: the physical description (design parameters, fluid properties, and financial structures) of the system to be studied, and the postulated market (throughput and price) projection. The model consists of time-independent submodels: the fluidics model which simulates the physical behavior of the system, and the financial model which operates upon the output of the fluidics model to calculate the economics outputs. Any of a number of existing fluidics models can be used in addition to that developed as a part of this study. The financial model, known as the Systems, Science and Software (S/sup 3/) Financial Projection Model, contains user options whereby pipeline-peculiar characteristics can be removed and/or modified, so that the model can be applied to virtually any kind of business enterprise. The several dozen outputs are of two classes: the energetics and the economics. The energetics outputs of primary interest are the energy intensity, also called unit energy consumption, and the total energy consumed. The primary economics outputs are the long-run average cost, profit, cash flow, and return on investment.

Polish and Estonian Economic Competitiveness. A Comparative Study

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Anna Kowalska

2007-10-01

Full Text Available The starting point of the study has been a survey of indices developed by international economic organizations. Such indices tend to encompass a number of qualitative/quantitative variables relating to economic viability, e.g. economic liberties, budgetary balance, judiciary, technical sophistication, social factors and innovation. Basing on the aforementioned data, the study has focused upon the comparison of both countries competitive stances and permitted the formulation of certain economic policy guidelines with regard to Poland, which has underperformed Estonia in most of the rankings.

Oh, the Economics You'll Find in Dr. Seuss!

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Ben; Watts, Michael

2011-01-01

The authors list economic concepts and issues covered in the children's books published by Theodor Geisel and discuss his treatment of concepts that appear most often and that are treated in greater depth. Some concepts are sophisticated and taught as formal concepts only in college-level economics courses. Others are basic and used in economics…

The BCRA’s Small Economic Model

OpenAIRE

Pedro Elosegui; Guillermo Escudé; Lorena Garegnani; Juan Martín Sotes Paladino

2007-01-01

The use of macroeconomic forecasting models is a common practice in central banks for monetary policy design, for the analysis of the current economic developments and for medium and long term forecasts. Among those models, the small-scale macroeconomic models stand out. Though relatively simple, they are structured and take into account the transmission mechanisms that relate the main variables of interest: the interest rate, the exchange rate, GDP and inflation. The Small Economic Model (ME...

Efficiency of economic development models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oana Camelia Iacob

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The world economy is becoming increasingly integrated. Integrating emerging economies of Asia, such as China and India increase competition on the world stage, putting pressure on the "actors" already existing. These developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of European development model, which focuses on a high level of equity, insurance and social protection. According to analysts, the world today faces three models of economic development with significant weight in the world: the European, American and Asian. This study will focus on analyzing European development model, and a brief comparison with the United States. In addition, this study aims to highlight the relationship between efficiency and social equity that occurs in each submodel in part of the European model, given that social and economic performance in the EU are not homogeneous. To achieve this, it is necessary to analyze different indicators related to social equity and efficiency respectively, to observe the performance of each submodel individually. The article analyzes data to determine submodel performance according to social equity and economic efficiency.

The musicality of non-musicians: an index for assessing musical sophistication in the general population.

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Daniel Müllensiefen

Full Text Available Musical skills and expertise vary greatly in Western societies. Individuals can differ in their repertoire of musical behaviours as well as in the level of skill they display for any single musical behaviour. The types of musical behaviours we refer to here are broad, ranging from performance on an instrument and listening expertise, to the ability to employ music in functional settings or to communicate about music. In this paper, we first describe the concept of 'musical sophistication' which can be used to describe the multi-faceted nature of musical expertise. Next, we develop a novel measurement instrument, the Goldsmiths Musical Sophistication Index (Gold-MSI to assess self-reported musical skills and behaviours on multiple dimensions in the general population using a large Internet sample (n = 147,636. Thirdly, we report results from several lab studies, demonstrating that the Gold-MSI possesses good psychometric properties, and that self-reported musical sophistication is associated with performance on two listening tasks. Finally, we identify occupation, occupational status, age, gender, and wealth as the main socio-demographic factors associated with musical sophistication. Results are discussed in terms of theoretical accounts of implicit and statistical music learning and with regard to social conditions of sophisticated musical engagement.

The musicality of non-musicians: an index for assessing musical sophistication in the general population.

Science.gov (United States)

Müllensiefen, Daniel; Gingras, Bruno; Musil, Jason; Stewart, Lauren

2014-01-01

Musical skills and expertise vary greatly in Western societies. Individuals can differ in their repertoire of musical behaviours as well as in the level of skill they display for any single musical behaviour. The types of musical behaviours we refer to here are broad, ranging from performance on an instrument and listening expertise, to the ability to employ music in functional settings or to communicate about music. In this paper, we first describe the concept of 'musical sophistication' which can be used to describe the multi-faceted nature of musical expertise. Next, we develop a novel measurement instrument, the Goldsmiths Musical Sophistication Index (Gold-MSI) to assess self-reported musical skills and behaviours on multiple dimensions in the general population using a large Internet sample (n = 147,636). Thirdly, we report results from several lab studies, demonstrating that the Gold-MSI possesses good psychometric properties, and that self-reported musical sophistication is associated with performance on two listening tasks. Finally, we identify occupation, occupational status, age, gender, and wealth as the main socio-demographic factors associated with musical sophistication. Results are discussed in terms of theoretical accounts of implicit and statistical music learning and with regard to social conditions of sophisticated musical engagement.

The Economics of Online Dating: A Course in Economic Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Monaco, Andrew J.

2018-01-01

The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of "online dating," interpreted broadly, as a point of…

Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sukharev Oleg

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

The New Toxicology of Sophisticated Materials: Nanotoxicology and Beyond

Science.gov (United States)

Maynard, Andrew D.; Warheit, David B.; Philbert, Martin A.

2011-01-01

It has long been recognized that the physical form of materials can mediate their toxicity—the health impacts of asbestiform materials, industrial aerosols, and ambient particulate matter are prime examples. Yet over the past 20 years, toxicology research has suggested complex and previously unrecognized associations between material physicochemistry at the nanoscale and biological interactions. With the rapid rise of the field of nanotechnology and the design and production of increasingly complex nanoscale materials, it has become ever more important to understand how the physical form and chemical composition of these materials interact synergistically to determine toxicity. As a result, a new field of research has emerged—nanotoxicology. Research within this field is highlighting the importance of material physicochemical properties in how dose is understood, how materials are characterized in a manner that enables quantitative data interpretation and comparison, and how materials move within, interact with, and are transformed by biological systems. Yet many of the substances that are the focus of current nanotoxicology studies are relatively simple materials that are at the vanguard of a new era of complex materials. Over the next 50 years, there will be a need to understand the toxicology of increasingly sophisticated materials that exhibit novel, dynamic and multifaceted functionality. If the toxicology community is to meet the challenge of ensuring the safe use of this new generation of substances, it will need to move beyond “nano” toxicology and toward a new toxicology of sophisticated materials. Here, we present a brief overview of the current state of the science on the toxicology of nanoscale materials and focus on three emerging toxicology-based challenges presented by sophisticated materials that will become increasingly important over the next 50 years: identifying relevant materials for study, physicochemical characterization, and

The Optimal Portfolio Selection Model under g-Expectation

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Li Li

2014-01-01

complicated and sophisticated, the optimal solution turns out to be surprisingly simple, the payoff of a portfolio of two binary claims. Also I give the economic meaning of my model and the comparison with that one in the work of Jin and Zhou, 2008.

Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

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Masoud Kheradmandi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

The modelling of economic consequences in COSYMA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faude, D.

1991-01-01

A new model for assessing the economic consequences of accidents, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site) has been developed jointly by NRPB and KfK under the CEC MARIA programme. This paper describes the way in which this model, together with other options, has been implemented in the ECONOMICS module of COSYMA. For consistency with the other parts of COSYMA, the coding of the ECONOMICS module is flexible: in several areas, alternative calculational methods are available and the user may select the method by which a particular cost is calculated. To some extent, economic models other than the COCO-1 model may be applied. There are two types of input data in the ECONOMICS module. These are (1) data from preceding COSYMA modules which quantify the magnitude and distribution of health effects and the impact of countermeasures, and (2) economic data, in terms of costs per unit quantity, to convert the preceding data into monetary values. The structure of the module has been determined by the form and availability of the input data, and the general structure of COSYMA. Details of the method of calculation, and the necessary input data, are discussed, for calculation of the economic consequences of the countermeasures considered in COSYMA (evacuation, relocation, sheltering, decontamination and food bans) and for early and late health effects

Procles the Carthaginian: A North African Sophist in Pausanias’ Periegesis

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Juan Pablo Sánchez Hernández

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Procles, cited by Pausanias (in the imperfect tense about a display in Rome and for an opinion about Pyrrhus of Epirus, probably was not a historian of Hellenistic date, but a contemporary sophist whom Pausanias encountered in person in Rome.

Teaching Economic Growth Theory with Data

Science.gov (United States)

Elmslie, Bruce T.; Tebaldi, Edinaldo

2010-01-01

Many instructors in subjects such as economics are frequently concerned with how to teach technical material to undergraduate students with limited mathematical backgrounds. One method that has proven successful for the authors is to connect theoretically sophisticated material with actual data. This enables students to see how the theory relates…

A sophisticated simulation for the fracture behavior of concrete material using XFEM

Science.gov (United States)

Zhai, Changhai; Wang, Xiaomin; Kong, Jingchang; Li, Shuang; Xie, Lili

2017-10-01

The development of a powerful numerical model to simulate the fracture behavior of concrete material has long been one of the dominant research areas in earthquake engineering. A reliable model should be able to adequately represent the discontinuous characteristics of cracks and simulate various failure behaviors under complicated loading conditions. In this paper, a numerical formulation, which incorporates a sophisticated rigid-plastic interface constitutive model coupling cohesion softening, contact, friction and shear dilatation into the XFEM, is proposed to describe various crack behaviors of concrete material. An effective numerical integration scheme for accurately assembling the contribution to the weak form on both sides of the discontinuity is introduced. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been assessed by simulating several well-known experimental tests. It is concluded that the numerical method can successfully capture the crack paths and accurately predict the fracture behavior of concrete structures. The influence of mode-II parameters on the mixed-mode fracture behavior is further investigated to better determine these parameters.

Does underground storage still require sophisticated studies?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marsily, G. de

1997-01-01

Most countries agree to the necessity of burying high or medium-level wastes in geological layers situated at a few hundred meters below the ground level. The advantages and disadvantages of different types of rock such as salt, clay, granite and volcanic material are examined. Sophisticated studies are lead to determine the best geological confinement but questions arise about the time for which safety must be ensured. France has chosen 3 possible sites. These sites are geologically described in the article. The final place will be proposed after a testing phase of about 5 years in an underground facility. (A.C.)

R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Gh. Rosca

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

Science.gov (United States)

Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

2017-09-01

Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoglund, R.L.

1984-01-01

The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

Science.gov (United States)

de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Researches on modeling of nuclear power plants for dynamic response analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watabe, M.; Fukuzawa, R.; Chiba, O.; Toritani, T.

1983-01-01

The authors tried to establish the rational and economical model due to the vertical component considering the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects and the flexibility of the mat foundation. Three types of models were introduced. 1) Finite element model. Two cases of response analyses due to harmonic excitations with the finite element model were performed in which the mat foundation was treated rigid and elastic body. The dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were evaluated based on the condition that soil was semiinfinite elastic medium. 2) Sophisticated mass-spring-dashpot model. Two cases of response analyses due to harmonic excitations were performed to simulate the dynamic characteristics of the finite element models mentioned above using the sophisticated mass-spring-dashpot model, in which the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were evaluated with the same procedure applied to the finite element model. 3) Simplified mass-spring-dashpot model. There were introduced three types of the simplified mass-spring-dashpot model in which the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were simplified. Response analyses due to harmonic excitations and earthquake ground motions were performed in order to establish the rational and economical model. (orig./HP)

Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

1984-01-01

Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, Bryan

1976-01-01

Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

Finding the Fabulous Few: Why Your Program Needs Sophisticated Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfizenmaier, Emily

1981-01-01

Fund raising, it is argued, needs sophisticated prospect research. Professional prospect researchers play an important role in helping to identify prospective donors and also in helping to stimulate interest in gift giving. A sample of an individual work-up on a donor and a bibliography are provided. (MLW)

Agent-based models in economics a toolkit

CERN Document Server

Fagiolo, Giorgio; Gallegati, Mauro; Richiardi, Matteo; Russo, Alberto

2018-01-01

In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, lab...

Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

2007-01-01

Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

Reading wild minds: A computational assay of Theory of Mind sophistication across seven primate species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie Devaine

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Theory of Mind (ToM, i.e. the ability to understand others' mental states, endows humans with highly adaptive social skills such as teaching or deceiving. Candidate evolutionary explanations have been proposed for the unique sophistication of human ToM among primates. For example, the Machiavellian intelligence hypothesis states that the increasing complexity of social networks may have induced a demand for sophisticated ToM. This type of scenario ignores neurocognitive constraints that may eventually be crucial limiting factors for ToM evolution. In contradistinction, the cognitive scaffolding hypothesis asserts that a species' opportunity to develop sophisticated ToM is mostly determined by its general cognitive capacity (on which ToM is scaffolded. However, the actual relationships between ToM sophistication and either brain volume (a proxy for general cognitive capacity or social group size (a proxy for social network complexity are unclear. Here, we let 39 individuals sampled from seven non-human primate species (lemurs, macaques, mangabeys, orangutans, gorillas and chimpanzees engage in simple dyadic games against artificial ToM players (via a familiar human caregiver. Using computational analyses of primates' choice sequences, we found that the probability of exhibiting a ToM-compatible learning style is mainly driven by species' brain volume (rather than by social group size. Moreover, primates' social cognitive sophistication culminates in a precursor form of ToM, which still falls short of human fully-developed ToM abilities.

Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

Science.gov (United States)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

2014-05-01

To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

2017-12-01

Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Grames

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

Lexical Sophistication as a Multidimensional Phenomenon: Relations to Second Language Lexical Proficiency, Development, and Writing Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Minkyung; Crossley, Scott A.; Kyle, Kristopher

2018-01-01

This study conceptualizes lexical sophistication as a multidimensional phenomenon by reducing numerous lexical features of lexical sophistication into 12 aggregated components (i.e., dimensions) via a principal component analysis approach. These components were then used to predict second language (L2) writing proficiency levels, holistic lexical…

Few remarks on chiral theories with sophisticated topology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Golo, V.L.; Perelomov, A.M.

1978-01-01

Two classes of the two-dimensional Euclidean chiral field theoreties are singled out: 1) the field phi(x) takes the values in the compact Hermitiam symmetric space 2) the field phi(x) takes the values in an orbit of the adjoint representation of the comcompact Lie group. The theories have sophisticated topological and rich analytical structures. They are considered with the help of topological invariants (topological charges). Explicit formulae for the topological charges are indicated, and the lower bound extimate for the action is given

Roman sophisticated surface modification methods to manufacture silver counterfeited coins

Science.gov (United States)

Ingo, G. M.; Riccucci, C.; Faraldi, F.; Pascucci, M.; Messina, E.; Fierro, G.; Di Carlo, G.

2017-11-01

By means of the combined use of X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), optical microscopy (OM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) coupled with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) the surface and subsurface chemical and metallurgical features of silver counterfeited Roman Republican coins are investigated to decipher some aspects of the manufacturing methods and to evaluate the technological ability of the Roman metallurgists to produce thin silver coatings. The results demonstrate that over 2000 ago important advances in the technology of thin layer deposition on metal substrates were attained by Romans. The ancient metallurgists produced counterfeited coins by combining sophisticated micro-plating methods and tailored surface chemical modification based on the mercury-silvering process. The results reveal that Romans were able systematically to chemically and metallurgically manipulate alloys at a micro scale to produce adherent precious metal layers with a uniform thickness up to few micrometers. The results converge to reveal that the production of forgeries was aimed firstly to save expensive metals as much as possible allowing profitable large-scale production at a lower cost. The driving forces could have been a lack of precious metals, an unexpected need to circulate coins for trade and/or a combinations of social, political and economic factors that requested a change in money supply. Finally, some information on corrosion products have been achieved useful to select materials and methods for the conservation of these important witnesses of technology and economy.

The impact of the British model on economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon György Jr.

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2017-06-13

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lasse Folke

2013-01-01

Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

STOCK EXCHANGE LISTING INDUCES SOPHISTICATION OF CAPITAL BUDGETING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wesley Mendes-da-Silva

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This article compares capital budgeting techniques employed in listed and unlisted companies in Brazil. We surveyed the Chief Financial Officers (CFOs of 398 listed companies and 300 large unlisted companies, and based on 91 respondents, the results suggest that the CFOs of listed companies tend to use less simplistic methods more often, for example: NPV and CAPM, and that CFOs of unlisted companies are less likely to estimate the cost of equity, despite being large companies. These findings indicate that stock exchange listing may require greater sophistication of the capital budgeting process.

Mortality and economic instability: detailed analyses for Britain and comparative analyses for selected industrialized countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Brenner, M H

1983-01-01

This paper discusses a first-stage analysis of the link of unemployment rates, as well as other economic, social and environmental health risk factors, to mortality rates in postwar Britain. The results presented represent part of an international study of the impact of economic change on mortality patterns in industrialized countries. The mortality patterns examined include total and infant mortality and (by cause) cardiovascular (total), cerebrovascular and heart disease, cirrhosis of the liver, and suicide, homicide and motor vehicle accidents. Among the most prominent factors that beneficially influence postwar mortality patterns in England/Wales and Scotland are economic growth and stability and health service availability. A principal detrimental factor to health is a high rate of unemployment. Additional factors that have an adverse influence on mortality rates are cigarette consumption and heavy alcohol use and unusually cold winter temperatures (especially in Scotland). The model of mortality that includes both economic changes and behavioral and environmental risk factors was successfully applied to infant mortality rates in the interwar period. In addition, the "simple" economic change model of mortality (using only economic indicators) was applied to other industrialized countries. In Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Sweden, the simple version of the economic change model could be successfully applied only if the analysis was begun before World War II; for analysis beginning in the postwar era, the more sophisticated economic change model, including behavioral and environmental risk factors, was required. In France, West Germany, Italy, and Spain, by contrast, some success was achieved using the simple economic change model.

Energy-economic policy modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sanstad, Alan H.

2018-01-01

Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

2013-01-01

This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

2008-12-01

Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivanov Roman V.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

ONTOLOGICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. A. Zaporozhtseva

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Article explains the necessity the application of the ontological approach to modeling the strategic economic security in the formalization of the basic categories of domain company recognized its benefits. Among the advantages of the model distinguishes its versatility and ability to describe various aspects of strategic security - the system strategies and goals of the organization and business processes; possibility of its use at different levels of detail - from the top-level description of the basic categories of management, to design-level analytic applications; as well as the adaptability of the model, with depth on particular aspects determined by practical necessity and not regulated methodology. The model integrates various aspects of the concept of enterprise architecture and organizes conceptual apparatus. Ontological model easy to understand and adjust as business architects and specialists in designing systems of economic security and offers many categories of verbal representation of the domain of the enterprise. Proved the feasibility of using process-functional approach in providing strategic economic security, according to which the components of such a security company proposed as business processes, finance, staff and contractors. The article presents the author's ontological model of strategic economic security, including endangered sites, the presence of factors that threaten the security of the object and the subject of providing security. Further, it is proved that in the subjects of security impact on the object using the tools, measures and activities within the strategy formed the mechanism is implemented managerial decisions to strengthen the strategic economic security. The process of diagnosis, detection, identification of threats of economic security, and the development of enterprise development strategies, taking into account its level of economic security must be under the constant supervision of the process of

Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

OpenAIRE

Loebnitz, K.

2011-01-01

Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenario analyses. In this thesis we present a more rigorous framework that allows us to measure a bank's liquidity risk within the standard economic capital and RAROC setting. In particular, we introduc...

Differential ethnic associations between maternal flexibility and play sophistication in toddlers born very low birth weight

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, Sarah J.; Montague, Erica Q.; Maclean, Peggy C.; Bancroft, Mary E.; Lowe, Jean R.

2013-01-01

Children born very low birth weight (development of self-regulation and effective functional skills, and play serves as an important avenue of early intervention. The current study investigated associations between maternal flexibility and toddler play sophistication in Caucasian, Spanish speaking Hispanic, English speaking Hispanic, and Native American toddlers (18-22 months adjusted age) in a cross-sectional cohort of 73 toddlers born VLBW and their mothers. We found that the association between maternal flexibility and toddler play sophistication differed by ethnicity (F(3,65) = 3.34, p = .02). In particular, Spanish speaking Hispanic dyads evidenced a significant positive association between maternal flexibility and play sophistication of medium effect size. Results for Native Americans were parallel to those of Spanish speaking Hispanic dyads: the relationship between flexibility and play sophistication was positive and of small-medium effect size. Findings indicate that for Caucasians and English speaking Hispanics, flexibility evidenced a non-significant (negative and small effect size) association with toddler play sophistication. Significant follow-up contrasts revealed that the associations for Caucasian and English speaking Hispanic dyads were significantly different from those of the other two ethnic groups. Results remained unchanged after adjusting for the amount of maternal language, an index of maternal engagement and stimulation; and after adjusting for birth weight, gestational age, gender, test age, cognitive ability, as well maternal age, education, and income. Our results provide preliminary evidence that ethnicity and acculturation may mediate the association between maternal interactive behavior such as flexibility and toddler developmental outcomes, as indexed by play sophistication. Addressing these association differences is particularly important in children born VLBW because interventions targeting parent interaction strategies such as

The methodology of energy policy-making in economical models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poursina, B.

1998-08-01

Scrutiny and careful study in energy is a subject that in human science has been investigated from different point of view. The expansion of this research, because of its importance and effect in different dimensions of human life, has also arrived in the field of political and economic sciences. Economics evaluates the energy phenomenon at the side of elements such as labor, capital and technology in the production functions of firms. The nature of these discussions is mainly from the viewpoint of micro analyses. Nevertheless, the variation and challenges concerning energy and environment during the recent decades and the economists` detailed investigations in its analysis and evaluation have led to the arrival of energy discussions in a special shape in macro planning and large economic models. The paper compares various energy models - EFDM, MEDEE, MIDAS and HERMES. This extent of planning and consequently modelling which lacks a background in the processes of economic researches, deals with analysis of energy and economics reacting effects. Modelling of energy-economy interaction and energy policy in modeling macroeconomics large models are new ideas in energy studies and economics. 7 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

Economic modelling for life extension decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

1987-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects

Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

2013-04-01

The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

Science.gov (United States)

Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

2017-12-01

The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

Statistics for economics

CERN Document Server

Naghshpour, Shahdad

2012-01-01

Statistics is the branch of mathematics that deals with real-life problems. As such, it is an essential tool for economists. Unfortunately, the way you and many other economists learn the concept of statistics is not compatible with the way economists think and learn. The problem is worsened by the use of mathematical jargon and complex derivations. Here's a book that proves none of this is necessary. All the examples and exercises in this book are constructed within the field of economics, thus eliminating the difficulty of learning statistics with examples from fields that have no relation to business, politics, or policy. Statistics is, in fact, not more difficult than economics. Anyone who can comprehend economics can understand and use statistics successfully within this field, including you! This book utilizes Microsoft Excel to obtain statistical results, as well as to perform additional necessary computations. Microsoft Excel is not the software of choice for performing sophisticated statistical analy...

Economic aspects and models for building codes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonke, Jens; Pedersen, Dan Ove; Johnsen, Kjeld

It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study.......It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study....

Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoff, A.; Andersen, J.L.; Christensen, Asbjørn

2013-01-01

the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North......This paper introduces and describes in detail the bioeconomic optimization model BEMCOM (BioEconomic Model to evaluate the COnsequences of Marine protected areas) that has been developed to assess the economic effects of introducing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) for fisheries. BEMCOM answers...... Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields...

Is our economic model compatible with sustainable development?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Røpke, Inge

2003-01-01

The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson.......The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson....

Models of the Economic Growth and their Relevance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolae MOROIANU

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Until few years ago, the economic growth was something perfect normal, part of an era marked by the transformation speed. Normality itself has been transformed and we currently are influenced by other rules, unknown yet, which should answer the question: “How do we return to the economic growth?” The economic growth and the models aiming to solve this problem concern the economic history even since its beginnings. In this paper we would like to find out what is the relevance that the well-known macroeconomic models still have and which might be their applicability level in a framework created by a black swan event type.

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2016-09-01

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

Economic tour package model using heuristic

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

2014-07-01

A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

Development Strategies for Tourism Destinations: Tourism Sophistication vs. Resource Investments

OpenAIRE

Rainer Andergassen; Guido Candela

2010-01-01

This paper investigates the effectiveness of development strategies for tourism destinations. We argue that resource investments unambiguously increase tourism revenues and that increasing the degree of tourism sophistication, that is increasing the variety of tourism related goods and services, increases tourism activity and decreases the perceived quality of the destination's resource endowment, leading to an ambiguous effect on tourism revenues. We disentangle these two effects and charact...

Modeling recent economic debates

Science.gov (United States)

Skiadas, Christos H.

The previous years' disaster in the stock markets all over the world and the resulting economic crisis lead to serious criticisms of the various models used. It was evident that large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur even in the case of a well organized and supervised context as it looks to be the European Union. In order to explain the economic systems, we explore models of interacting and conflicting populations. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market or a Group of Countries as the EU). Three models where introduced 1) the Lotka-Volterra 2) the Lanchester or the Richardson model and 3) a new model for two conflicting populations. These models assume immediate interaction between the two conflicting populations. This is usually not the case in a stock market or between countries as delays in the information process arise. The main rules present include mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. In a previous paper (Skiadas, 2010 [9]) we had proposed and analyzed a model including mutual interaction with delays due to the innovation diffusion process. The model characteristics where expressed by third order terms providing four characteristic symmetric stationary points. In this paper we summarize the previous results and we analyze the case of a non-symmetric case where the leading part receives the information immediately while the second part receives the information following a delay mechanism due to the innovation diffusion process (the spread of information) which can be expressed by a third order term. In the later case the non-symmetric process leads to gains of the leading part while the second part oscillates between gains and losses during time.

Do organizations adopt sophisticated capital budgeting practices to deal with uncertainty in the investment decision? : A research note

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verbeeten, Frank H M

This study examines the impact of uncertainty on the sophistication of capital budgeting practices. While the theoretical applications of sophisticated capital budgeting practices (defined as the use of real option reasoning and/or game theory decision rules) have been well documented, empirical

Value function in economic growth model

Science.gov (United States)

Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

2017-11-01

Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

Economic management model of nuclear power plant research institute

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultz, O.

1993-01-01

Brief information about the development of economic management and processing of economic information in the Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute Trnava is given in the paper. The existing economic management model of the Institute impacts positively the fulfillment of economic indicators. When applying this model, activities of individual divisions are emphasized and presentation of the Institute as a global professional capacity is suppressed. With regards to this influence, it will be necessary to look for such system elements that will impact the integrity of the Institute in the future period positively

Agent-based model for electricity consumption and storage to evaluate economic viability of tariff arbitrage for residential sector demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng, Menglian; Meinrenken, Christoph J.; Lackner, Klaus S.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Storage-based demand response (loadshifting) is underutilized in residential sector. • Economics (arbitrage savings versus equipment cost) are not well understood. • Stochastic demand models and real-life tariffs can illuminate economic viability. • A range of available storage options provide economically viable DR. • Daily/seasonal stochastic demand variations crucial to understanding optimum capacity. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) is one of many approaches to address temporal mismatches in demand and supply of grid electricity. More common in the commercial sector, DR usually refers to reducing consumption at certain hours or seasons, thus reducing peak demand from the grid. In the residential sector, where sophisticated appliance-level controls such as automatic dimming of lights or on-demand lowering of air conditioning are less common, building-based electricity storage to shift grid consumption from peak to off-peak times could provide DR without requiring consumers to operate their appliances on shifted or reduced schedules: Storage would be dispatched to appliances as needed while still shaving peaks on the grid. Technologically, storage and two-way-inverters are readily available to enable such residential DR. Economically, however, the situation is less clear. Specifically, are time-varying electricity tariffs available such that electricity cost reduction via arbitrage could offset manufacturing, financing, and installation costs of the required storage? To address this question we (i) devise an agent-based appliance-level stochastic model to simulate the electricity demand of an average U.S. household; (ii) loadshift the demand via simple dispatch strategies; and (iii) determine potential profits to the building owner, i.e. reduced electricity cost of the modified demand with realistic tariffs (Con Edison, NY) minus storage cost. We determine the economic viability for a range of traditional and advanced storage technologies

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation

OpenAIRE

DEZÉCACHE CAMILLE; SALLES JEAN-MICHEL; VIEILLEDENT GHISLAIN; HÉRAULT BRUNO

2017-01-01

While high resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially-explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account ...

Sophistic Ethics in the Technical Writing Classroom: Teaching "Nomos," Deliberation, and Action.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, J. Blake

1995-01-01

Claims that teaching ethics is particularly important to technical writing. Outlines a classical, sophistic approach to ethics based on the theories and pedagogies of Protagoras, Gorgias, and Isocrates, which emphasizes the Greek concept of "nomos," internal and external deliberation, and responsible action. Discusses problems and…

An economic model for seaborne oil trade

OpenAIRE

Hong, Kian-Wah

1996-01-01

This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

Science.gov (United States)

Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

2014-01-01

The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

Current challenges in health economic modeling of cancer therapies: a research inquiry.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Jeffrey D; Foley, Kathleen A; Russell, Mason W

2014-05-01

The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented and interpreted. Complex technical and

Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sherstennykov Yurii V.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

Mathematical modelling in economic processes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L.V. Kravtsova

2008-06-01

Full Text Available In article are considered a number of methods of mathematical modelling of economic processes and opportunities of use of spreadsheets Excel for reception of the optimum decision of tasks or calculation of financial operations with the help of the built-in functions.

Econometric modelling of economic security in business operations management

OpenAIRE

Chagovets, L. О.; Nevezhin, V. P.; Zakharova, О. V.

2014-01-01

The article deals with econometric modeling of economic security. The model of evaluating transaction costs effect on the level of enterprise economic security is provided. The econometric models of evaluating economic security that are used in research are based on panel data. According to the results, the reserves for increasing the general level of economic security due to transaction costs reduction are revealed. Розглянуто питання економетричного моделювання економічної безпеки. Предс...

PLANNING AND MODEL CUBAN ECONOMIC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenilia Mariela Villalón-Madrazo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Since the Revolution´s Triumph the country assumes that the planning is the axis, as instrument for the economic acting and of the constant development of the socialist relationships of production and it traces the rules required for the best operation in the Cuban economy, and it implants with these concepts the centralized economic pattern that responded to the existent outline in the Soviet Union and the European socialist countries, of centralized planning based on the material balances. In the current situation of the Cuban economy it is thought about bringing up to date the economic pattern in which will stay as priority the planning and not the market. Leaving what it is mentioned above, presently in this work is carried out the analysis of the economic models in Cuba and its linking with the planning, with the objective of giving to know how the pattern economic Cuban is implanted from the first years of the revolution and it has always been the planning its fundamental axis, and as the same one it has left modernizing during the 53 years of the Revolution. It has been carried out an analysis framed approximately in 10 year-old periods pointing out the internal and external factors that have impacted in the Cuban pattern, their adjustments and the role of planning. 

OBJECT ORIENTED MODELLING, A MODELLING METHOD OF AN ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION ACTIVITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

TĂNĂSESCU ANA

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Now, most economic organizations use different information systems types in order to facilitate their activity. There are different methodologies, methods and techniques that can be used to design information systems. In this paper, I propose to present the advantages of using the object oriented modelling at the information system design of an economic organization. Thus, I have modelled the activity of a photo studio, using Visual Paradigm for UML as a modelling tool. For this purpose, I have identified the use cases for the analyzed system and I have presented the use case diagram. I have, also, realized the system static and dynamic modelling, through the most known UML diagrams.

Assessing Epistemic Sophistication by Considering Domain-Specific Absolute and Multiplicistic Beliefs Separately

Science.gov (United States)

Peter, Johannes; Rosman, Tom; Mayer, Anne-Kathrin; Leichner, Nikolas; Krampen, Günter

2016-01-01

Background: Particularly in higher education, not only a view of science as a means of finding absolute truths (absolutism), but also a view of science as generally tentative (multiplicism) can be unsophisticated and obstructive for learning. Most quantitative epistemic belief inventories neglect this and understand epistemic sophistication as…

FISHRENT; Bio-economic simulation and optimisation model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Salz, P.; Buisman, F.C.; Soma, K.; Frost, H.; Accadia, P.; Prellezo, R.

2011-01-01

Key findings: The FISHRENT model is a major step forward in bio-economic model-ling, combining features that have not been fully integrated in earlier models: 1- Incorporation of any number of species (or stock) and/or fleets 2- Integration of simulation and optimisation over a period of 25 years 3-

Simulation of electric power conservation strategies: model of economic evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinhel, A.C.C.

1992-01-01

A methodology for the economic evaluation model for energy conservation programs to be executed by the National Program of Electric Power Conservation is presented. From data as: forecasting of conserved energy, tariffs, energy costs and budget, the model calculates the economic indexes for the programs, allowing the evaluation of economic impacts in the electric sector. (C.G.C.)

Economical modelling of social and moral norms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nyborg, Karine

2001-01-01

Social norms and moral motivations are often ignored in economic models. It is possible, however, to model social and moral norms within the framework of economical theory. This may be useful even if the exposition is necessarily simplified. The article gives some examples. An analysis shows how the ''No Smoking Act'' may have led to a change in social norms in Norway and indirectly changed the behaviour of smokers in places where this act does not apply. Behaviour with moral motivation may also be affected by changes in regulations, economic incentives or other external conditions. For example, a more efficient collection system for source-separated waste may induce people to sharpen the moral claim on their own efforts. Indeed, interviews show that imposing a fee upon people not volunteering in communal work may cause the attendance to drop further

A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

1998-12-01

This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

Estudo teórico das transições eletrônicas usando métodos simples e sofisticados Theoretical study of electronic transitions using simple and sophisticated methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nelson H. Morgon

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the use of both simple and sophisticated models in the study of electronic transitions was explored for a set of molecular systems: C2H4, C4H4, C4H6, C6H6, C6H8, "C8", C60, and [H2NCHCH(CHCHkCHNH2]+, where k = 0 to 4. The simple model of the free particle (1D, 2D, and 3D boxes, rings or spherical surfaces, considering the boundary conditions, was found to yield similar results to the sophisticated theoretical methods such as EOM-CCSD/6-311++G** or TD(NStates=5,Root=1-M06-2X/6-311++G**.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

2015-04-01

Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

1979-06-01

This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

A model, describing the influence of water management alternatives on dike stability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. W. M. Lambert

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The awareness is rising that economic effects of Land Subsidence are high. Nevertheless, quantifying these economic losses is difficult and, as far as known, not yet done in a sophisticated way. Also, to be able to decide about future strategies, for example to avoid or decrease subsidence, it is necessary to know the financial consequences of measures and possible solutions. As a first step to quantify these economic effects, a MODFLOW-SCR (coupled MODFLOW-Settlements model is coupled with the model DAM. Based on the local stratigraphy, the shape and composition of the existing dike or levee, the level of the surface water and the surface level, macro-stability of the dike is calculated and – if the dike does not meet the required stability – adaptions are proposed. The model enables to separate effects that are caused by sea-level rise and the effects of subsidence. Coupling the DAM model with an economic model to calculate costs of these adaptions is under construction.

User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, Francisco [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cox, Sadie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-09-01

The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the country of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.

Particle tracking in sophisticated CAD models for simulation purposes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sulkimo, J.; Vuoskoski, J.

1995-01-01

The transfer of physics detector models from computer aided design systems to physics simulation packages like GEANT suffers from certain limitations. In addition, GEANT is not able to perform particle tracking in CAD models. We describe an application which is able to perform particle tracking in boundary models constructed in CAD systems. The transfer file format used is the new international standard, STEP. The design and implementation of the application was carried out using object-oriented techniques. It will be integrated in the future object-oriented version of GEANT. (orig.)

Particle tracking in sophisticated CAD models for simulation purposes

Science.gov (United States)

Sulkimo, J.; Vuoskoski, J.

1996-02-01

The transfer of physics detector models from computer aided design systems to physics simulation packages like GEANT suffers from certain limitations. In addition, GEANT is not able to perform particle tracking in CAD models. We describe an application which is able to perform particle tracking in boundary models constructed in CAD systems. The transfer file format used is the new international standard, STEP. The design and implementation of the application was carried out using object-oriented techniques. It will be integrated in the future object-oriented version of GEANT.

Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, Jon David

The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

Using hydro-economic modelling to investigate trade-offs between ecological and economic water management objectives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riegels, Niels

is that land and water use levels predicted by the two approaches are essentially the same. The prediction that high-value irrigated crops will not replace low-value crops is not unreasonable given behavior observed in the baseline data set and highlights the limitations of using economic models calibrated......In regions where water scarcity exists, economic analysis can help identify ways to increase benefits of water use. The European Union’s Water Framework Directive (WFD), is an example of a law that requires the use of economic principles, approaches, and instruments in water resources management....... One of these instruments is water pricing. This study develops an approach for implementing the water pricing guidelines of the WFD at the river basin scale and then uses hydro-economic modelling to estimate the impacts of applying these guidelines. The central purpose of the WFD is the protection...

Musical Sophistication and the Effect of Complexity on Auditory Discrimination in Finnish Speakers

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Caitlin; Aalto, Daniel; Šimko, Juraj; Vainio, Martti; Tervaniemi, Mari

2017-01-01

Musical experiences and native language are both known to affect auditory processing. The present work aims to disentangle the influences of native language phonology and musicality on behavioral and subcortical sound feature processing in a population of musically diverse Finnish speakers as well as to investigate the specificity of enhancement from musical training. Finnish speakers are highly sensitive to duration cues since in Finnish, vowel and consonant duration determine word meaning. Using a correlational approach with a set of behavioral sound feature discrimination tasks, brainstem recordings, and a musical sophistication questionnaire, we find no evidence for an association between musical sophistication and more precise duration processing in Finnish speakers either in the auditory brainstem response or in behavioral tasks, but they do show an enhanced pitch discrimination compared to Finnish speakers with less musical experience and show greater duration modulation in a complex task. These results are consistent with a ceiling effect set for certain sound features which corresponds to the phonology of the native language, leaving an opportunity for music experience-based enhancement of sound features not explicitly encoded in the language (such as pitch, which is not explicitly encoded in Finnish). Finally, the pattern of duration modulation in more musically sophisticated Finnish speakers suggests integrated feature processing for greater efficiency in a real world musical situation. These results have implications for research into the specificity of plasticity in the auditory system as well as to the effects of interaction of specific language features with musical experiences. PMID:28450829

Musical Sophistication and the Effect of Complexity on Auditory Discrimination in Finnish Speakers.

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Caitlin; Aalto, Daniel; Šimko, Juraj; Vainio, Martti; Tervaniemi, Mari

2017-01-01

Musical experiences and native language are both known to affect auditory processing. The present work aims to disentangle the influences of native language phonology and musicality on behavioral and subcortical sound feature processing in a population of musically diverse Finnish speakers as well as to investigate the specificity of enhancement from musical training. Finnish speakers are highly sensitive to duration cues since in Finnish, vowel and consonant duration determine word meaning. Using a correlational approach with a set of behavioral sound feature discrimination tasks, brainstem recordings, and a musical sophistication questionnaire, we find no evidence for an association between musical sophistication and more precise duration processing in Finnish speakers either in the auditory brainstem response or in behavioral tasks, but they do show an enhanced pitch discrimination compared to Finnish speakers with less musical experience and show greater duration modulation in a complex task. These results are consistent with a ceiling effect set for certain sound features which corresponds to the phonology of the native language, leaving an opportunity for music experience-based enhancement of sound features not explicitly encoded in the language (such as pitch, which is not explicitly encoded in Finnish). Finally, the pattern of duration modulation in more musically sophisticated Finnish speakers suggests integrated feature processing for greater efficiency in a real world musical situation. These results have implications for research into the specificity of plasticity in the auditory system as well as to the effects of interaction of specific language features with musical experiences.

The modelling of off-site economic consequences of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.; Martin, J.E.

1991-01-01

The paper presents a computer model for the probabilistic assessment of the off-site economic risk derived from nuclear accidents. The model is called MECA (Model for Economic Consequence Assessment) and takes into consideration the direct costs caused, following an accident, by the different countermeasures adopted to prevent both the early and chronic exposure of the population to the radionuclides released, as well as the direct costs derived from health damage to the affected population. The model uses site-specific data that are organized in a socio-economic data base; detailed distributions of population, livestock census, agricultural production and farmland use, as well as of employment, salaries, and added value for different economic sectors are included. This data base has been completed for Spain, based on available official statistics. The new code, coupled to a general ACA code, provides capability to complete probabilistic risk assessments from the point of view of the off-site economic consequences, and also to perform cost-effectiveness analysis of the different countermeasures in the field of emergency preparedness

Studying Economic Space: Synthesis of Balance and Game-Theoretic Methods of Modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia Gennadyevna Zakharchenko

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article introduces questions about development of models used to study economic space. The author proposes the model that combines balance and game-theoretic methods for estimating system effects of economic agents’ interactions in multi-level economic space. The model is applied to research interactions between economic agents that are spatially heterogeneous within the Russian Far East. In the model the economic space of region is considered in a territorial dimension (the first level of decomposing space and also in territorial and product dimensions (the second level of decomposing space. The paper shows the mechanism of system effects formation that exists in the economic space of region. The author estimates system effects, analyses the real allocation of these effects between economic agents and identifies three types of local industrial markets: with zero, positive and negative system effects

Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ouden, den M.

1996-01-01

The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

Bifurcations of a class of singular biological economic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xue; Zhang Qingling; Zhang Yue

2009-01-01

This paper studies systematically a prey-predator singular biological economic model with time delay. It shows that this model exhibits two bifurcation phenomena when the economic profit is zero. One is transcritical bifurcation which changes the stability of the system, and the other is singular induced bifurcation which indicates that zero economic profit brings impulse, i.e., rapid expansion of the population in biological explanation. On the other hand, if the economic profit is positive, at a critical value of bifurcation parameter, the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, i.e., the increase of delay destabilizes the system and bifurcates into small amplitude periodic solution. Finally, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here. In addition, we study numerically that the system undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation when the bifurcation parameter goes through critical value of positive economic profit.

Economic modeling of surgical disease: a measure of public health interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Corlew, D Scott

2013-07-01

The measurement of the burden of disease and the interventions that address that burden can be done in various units. Reducing these measures to the common denominator of economic units (i.e., currency) enables comparison with other health entities, interventions, and even other fields. Economic assessment is complex, however, because of the multifactorial components of what constitutes health and what constitutes health interventions, as well as the coupling of those data to economic means. To perform economic modeling in a meaningful manner, it is necessary to: (1) define the health problem to be addressed; (2) define the intervention to be assessed; (3) define a measure of the effect of the health entity with and without the intervention (which includes defining the counterfactual); and (4) determine the appropriate method of converting the health effect to economics. This paper discusses technical aspects of how economic modeling can be done both of disease entities and of interventions. Two examples of economic modeling applied to surgical problems are then given.

xSyn: A Software Tool for Identifying Sophisticated 3-Way Interactions From Cancer Expression Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baishali Bandyopadhyay

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Background: Constructing gene co-expression networks from cancer expression data is important for investigating the genetic mechanisms underlying cancer. However, correlation coefficients or linear regression models are not able to model sophisticated relationships among gene expression profiles. Here, we address the 3-way interaction that 2 genes’ expression levels are clustered in different space locations under the control of a third gene’s expression levels. Results: We present xSyn, a software tool for identifying such 3-way interactions from cancer gene expression data based on an optimization procedure involving the usage of UPGMA (Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic Mean and synergy. The effectiveness is demonstrated by application to 2 real gene expression data sets. Conclusions: xSyn is a useful tool for decoding the complex relationships among gene expression profiles. xSyn is available at http://www.bdxconsult.com/xSyn.html .

Dynamic ecological-economic modeling approach for management of shellfish aquaculture

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Nobre, AM

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The objective of this report is to conceptualize ecological and economic interactions in mariculture; to implement a dynamic ecological-economic model in order to: simulate the socio-economics of aquaculture production, simulate its effects...

Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rexroth, Paul E.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Hendrickson, Gerald A.; Kobos, Peter Holmes; McNamara, Laura A.

2004-09-01

This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.

An Alternative Theoretical Model for Economic Reforms in Africa ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper offers an alternative model for economic reforms in Africa. It proposes that Africa can still get on the pathway of sustained economic growth if economic reforms can focus on a key variable, namely, the price of non-tradables. Prices of non-tradables are generally less in Africa than in advanced economies, and the ...

Reacting to Neighborhood Cues?: Political Sophistication Moderates the Effect of Exposure to Immigrants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Danckert, Bolette; Dinesen, Peter Thisted; Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar

2017-01-01

is founded on politically sophisticated individuals having a greater comprehension of news and other mass-mediated sources, which makes them less likely to rely on neighborhood cues as sources of information relevant for political attitudes. Based on a unique panel data set with fine-grained information...

An object-oriented approach to energy-economic modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wise, M.A.; Fox, J.A.; Sands, R.D.

1993-12-01

In this paper, the authors discuss the experiences in creating an object-oriented economic model of the U.S. energy and agriculture markets. After a discussion of some central concepts, they provide an overview of the model, focusing on the methodology of designing an object-oriented class hierarchy specification based on standard microeconomic production functions. The evolution of the model from the class definition stage to programming it in C++, a standard object-oriented programming language, will be detailed. The authors then discuss the main differences between writing the object-oriented program versus a procedure-oriented program of the same model. Finally, they conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the object-oriented approach based on the experience in building energy-economic models with procedure-oriented approaches and languages.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

Simplicity, inference and modelling: keeping it sophisticatedly simple

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Zellner, Arnold; Keuzenkamp, Hugo A; McAleer, Michael

2001-01-01

.... What is meant by simplicity? How is simplicity measured? Is there an optimum trade-off between simplicity and goodness-of-fit? What is the relation between simplicity and empirical modelling? What is the relation between simplicity and prediction? What is the connection between simplicity and convenience? The book concludes with reflect...

Models of economic geography: dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

OpenAIRE

Knaap, Thijs

2004-01-01

In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of these models, especially when we allow firms to have different demand functions for intermediate goods. We estimated the model using a dataset on US states, and computed a number of counterfactuals....

Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

2011-01-01

opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so......Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...

Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

2013-12-31

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

Growth structure and environment. 6 contributions to the macro economic model development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wier, Mette

1998-04-01

This thesis comprises 6 papers on the application of macro economic models to environmental problems. Interactions between the economic and the ecological models are elucidated and a description is given of a possible systematization of of the environmental-economic cycle within a macro economic model. Economic and technological limitations affecting the potential environmental advantages are discussed. In the second part of the thesis the general interdependence of production and consumption, and the various forms of environmental stress is analyzed. For this purpose an environment-related input-output model is presented, where for each industry there are given emissions and/or consumption of natural resources (so-called environmental coefficients), which are likely to originate from the activities of this industry. As examples of macro economic modelling,the nitrogen cycle in Denmark, environmental effects of consumer choice, use of building materials and emission due to energy generation and consumption etc. are analyzed. (EG) 146 refs

Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jess Bier

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

Economic MPC based on LPV model for thermostatically controlled loads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zemtsov, Nikita; Hlava, Jaroslav; Frantsuzova, Galina

2017-01-01

Rapid increase of the renewable energy share in electricity production requires optimization and flexibility of the power consumption side. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) have a large potential for regulation service provision. Economic model predictive control (MPC) is an advanced...... control method which can be used to syncronize the power consumption with undispatchable renewable electricity production. Thermal behavior of TCLs can be described by linear models based on energy balance of the system. In some cases, parameters of the model may be time-varying. In this work, we present...... a modified economic MPC based on linear parameter-varying model. In particular, we provide an exact transformation from a standard economic MPC formulation to a linear program. We assume that the variables influencing the model parameters are known (predictable) for the prediction horizon of the controller...

Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rui Bo

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA and real-time (RT markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market.

"Economic microscope": The agent-based model set as an instrument in an economic system research

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Akenov, Serik

2017-07-01

To create a valid model of a social or economic system one must consider a lot of parameters, conditions and restrictions. Systems and, consequently, the corresponding models are proved to be very complicated. The problem of such system model engineering can't be solved only with mathematical methods usage. The decision could be found in computer simulation. Simulation does not reject mathematical methods, mathematical expressions could become the foundation for a computer model. In these materials the set of agent-based computer models is under discussion. All the set models simulate productive agents communications, but every model is geared towards the specific goal, and, thus, has its own algorithm and its own peculiarities. It is shown that computer simulation can discover new features of the agents' behavior that can not be obtained by analytical solvation of mathematical equations and thus plays the role of some kind of economic microscope.

Tax Compliance Models: From Economic to Behavioral Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Larissa Margareta BĂTRÂNCEA

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The paper reviews the models of tax compliance with an emphasis on economic and behavioral perspectives. Although the standard tax evasion model of Allingham and Sandmo and other similar economic models capture some important aspects of tax compliance (i.e., taxpayers’ response to increases in tax rate, audit probability, penalty rate they do not suffice the need for an accurate prediction of taxpayers’ behavior. The reason is that they do not offer a comprehensive perspective on the sociological and psychological factors which shape compliance (i.e., attitudes, beliefs, norms, perceptions, motivations. Therefore, the researchers have considered examining taxpayers’ inner motivations, beliefs, perceptions, attitudes in order to accurately predict taxpayers’ behavior. As a response to their quest, behavioral models of tax compliance have emerged. Among the sociological and psychological factors which shape tax compliance, the ‘slippery slope’ framework singles out trust in authorities and the perception of the power of authorities. The aim of the paper is to contribute to the understanding of the reasons for which there is a need for a tax compliance model which incorporates both economic and behavioral features and why governments and tax authorities should consider these models when designing fiscal policies.

Analysis of Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza: An Actuarial Based Conceptual Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. S. N. Perera

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Analysing the economic burden of the seasonal influenza is highly essential due to the large number of outbreaks in recent years. Mathematical and actuarial models can be considered as management tools to understand the dynamical behavior, predict the risk, and compute it. This study is an attempt to develop conceptual model to investigate the economic burden due to seasonal influenza. The compartment SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible model is used to capture the dynamical behavior of influenza. Considering the current investment and future medical care expenditure as premium payment and benefit (claim, respectively, the insurance and actuarial based conceptual model is proposed to model the present economic burden due to the spread of influenza. Simulation is carried out to demonstrate the variation of the present economic burden with respect to model parameters. The sensitivity of the present economic burden is studied with respect to the risk of disease spread. The basic reproduction is used to identify the risk of disease spread. Impact of the seasonality is studied by introducing the seasonally varying infection rate. The proposed model provides theoretical background to investigate the economic burden of seasonal influenza.

Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

Science.gov (United States)

Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

2017-12-01

The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Pedagogical Note on Modeling the Economic Benefit of Emissions Abatement vs. the Economic Harm from Emissions

OpenAIRE

Christopher S. Decker

2012-01-01

The number of undergraduate-level textbooks on environmental economics has increased in recent years, but the textbook treatment of optimal emissions (abatement) varies markedly from textbook to textbook. In particular, there is no consensus as to whether to model the economic “bad” (i.e. emissions) or the economic “good” (abatement). This inconsistency can lead to some needless confusion for students introduced to environmental economics for the first time, particularly those students outsid...

Long-Term Effects of Payments for Environmental Services: Combining Insights from Communication and Economics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John M. Kerr

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Interdisciplinary analytical perspectives can bring important insights to address complex sustainability problems. In this paper we present and apply a model that integrates perspectives from economics and communication sciences to address the question of what happens to pro-environmental behavior after the introduction and then the withdrawal of payment for environmental services (PES. In particular, we discuss the effects of financial incentives on social norms and the effects of norms on subsequent behavior after incentives have ended. This is important because the dominant literature on PES lacks a sophisticated understanding of social norms and fails to address what will happen to behavior once payments end. That literature addresses the potential problem that payments can crowd out or possibly crowd in intrinsic sources of motivation for pro-social behavior, but it lacks the sophisticated understanding of social norms that has the potential to help explain and address this phenomenon. We summarize experimental evidence based on our model showing that introducing a financial incentive for behavior change can change social norms around that behavior. These norms, in turn, can continue to influence behavior even after incentives have ended. PES programs can address this situation by actively evoking existing social norms in favor of conservation.

The tool for the automatic analysis of lexical sophistication (TAALES): version 2.0.

Science.gov (United States)

Kyle, Kristopher; Crossley, Scott; Berger, Cynthia

2017-07-11

This study introduces the second release of the Tool for the Automatic Analysis of Lexical Sophistication (TAALES 2.0), a freely available and easy-to-use text analysis tool. TAALES 2.0 is housed on a user's hard drive (allowing for secure data processing) and is available on most operating systems (Windows, Mac, and Linux). TAALES 2.0 adds 316 indices to the original tool. These indices are related to word frequency, word range, n-gram frequency, n-gram range, n-gram strength of association, contextual distinctiveness, word recognition norms, semantic network, and word neighbors. In this study, we validated TAALES 2.0 by investigating whether its indices could be used to model both holistic scores of lexical proficiency in free writes and word choice scores in narrative essays. The results indicated that the TAALES 2.0 indices could be used to explain 58% of the variance in lexical proficiency scores and 32% of the variance in word-choice scores. Newly added TAALES 2.0 indices, including those related to n-gram association strength, word neighborhood, and word recognition norms, featured heavily in these predictor models, suggesting that TAALES 2.0 represents a substantial upgrade.

Practical Validation of Economic Efficiency Modelling Method for Multi-Boiler Heating System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksejs Jurenoks

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In up-to-date conditions information technology is frequently associated with the modelling process, using computer technology as well as information networks. Statistical modelling is one of the most widespread methods of research of economic systems. The selection of methods of modelling of the economic systems depends on a great number of conditions of the researched system. Modelling is frequently associated with the factor of uncertainty (or risk, who’s description goes outside the confines of the traditional statistical modelling, which, in its turn, complicates the modelling which, in its turn, complicates the modelling process. This article describes the modelling process of assessing the economic efficiency of a multi-boiler adaptive heating system in real-time systems which allows for dynamic change in the operation scenarios of system service installations while enhancing the economic efficiency of the system in consideration.

Logistic map with memory from economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

2017-01-01

A generalization of the economic model of logistic growth, which takes into account the effects of memory and crises, is suggested. Memory effect means that the economic factors and parameters at any given time depend not only on their values at that time, but also on their values at previous times. For the mathematical description of the memory effects, we use the theory of derivatives of non-integer order. Crises are considered as sharp splashes (bursts) of the price, which are mathematically described by the delta-functions. Using the equivalence of fractional differential equations and the Volterra integral equations, we obtain discrete maps with memory that are exact discrete analogs of fractional differential equations of economic processes. We derive logistic map with memory, its generalizations, and “economic” discrete maps with memory from the fractional differential equations, which describe the economic natural growth with competition, power-law memory and crises.

Modelling management process of key drivers for economic sustainability in the modern conditions of economic development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pishchulina E.S.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The text is about issues concerning the management of driver for manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability and manufacturing enterprise sustainability assessment as the key aspect of the management of enterprise economic sustainability. The given issues become topical as new requirements for the methods of manufacturing enterprise management in the modern conditions of market economy occur. An economic sustainability model that is considered in the article is an integration of enterprise economic growth, economic balance of external and internal environment and economic sustainability. The method of assessment of economic sustainability of a manufacturing enterprise proposed in the study allows to reveal some weaknesses in the enterprise performance, and untapped reserves, which can be further used to improve the economic sustainability and efficiency of the enterprise. The management of manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability is one of the most important factors of business functioning and development in modern market economy. The relevance of this trend is increasing in accordance with the objective requirements of the growing volumes of production and sale, the increasing complexity of economic relations, changing external environment of an enterprise.

Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

1998-01-01

This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model....... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...

Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darya I. Ushkalova

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

Using Economic Impact Models as an Educational Tool in Community Economic Development Programming: Lessons from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Science.gov (United States)

Shields, Martin; Deller, Steven C.

2003-01-01

Outlines an educational process designed to help provide communities with economic, social, and political information using community economic impact modeling. Describes the process of community meetings using economic impact, community demographics, and fiscal impact modules and the local preconditions that help make the process successful. (SK)

Putin’s Russia: Russian Mentality and Sophisticated Imperialism in Military Policies

OpenAIRE

Szénási, Lieutenant-Colonel Endre

2016-01-01

According to my experiences, the Western world hopelessly fails to understand Russian mentality, or misinterprets it. During my analysis of the Russian way of thinking I devoted special attention to the examination of military mentality. I have connected the issue of the Russian way of thinking to the contemporary imperial policies of Putin’s Russia.  I have also attempted to prove the level of sophistication of both. I hope that a better understanding of both the Russian mentality and imperi...

A Discrete Monetary Economic Growth Model with the MIU Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Bin Zhang

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes an alternative approach to economic growth with money. The production side is the same as the Solow model, the Ramsey model, and the Tobin model. But we deal with behavior of consumers differently from the traditional approaches. The model is influenced by the money-in-the-utility (MIU approach in monetary economics. It provides a mechanism of endogenous saving which the Solow model lacks and avoids the assumption of adding up utility over a period of time upon which the Ramsey approach is based.

Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

1996-12-31

The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

Developing models that analyze the economic/environmental trade-offs implicit in water resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Howitt, R. E.

2016-12-01

Hydro-economic models have been used to analyze optimal supply management and groundwater use for the past 25 years. They are characterized by an objective function that usually maximizes economic measures such as consumer and producer surplus subject to hydrologic equations of motion or water distribution systems. The hydrologic and economic components are sometimes fully integrated. Alternatively they may use an iterative interactive process. Environmental considerations have been included in hydro-economic models as inequality constraints. Representing environmental requirements as constraints is a rigid approximation of the range of management alternatives that could be used to implement environmental objectives. The next generation of hydro-economic models, currently being developed, require that the environmental alternatives be represented by continuous or semi-continuous functions which relate water resource use allocated to the environment with the probabilities of achieving environmental objectives. These functions will be generated by process models of environmental and biological systems which are now advanced to the state that they can realistically represent environmental systems and flexibility to interact with economic models. Examples are crop growth models, climate modeling, and biological models of forest, fish, and fauna systems. These process models can represent environmental outcomes in a form that is similar to economic production functions. When combined with economic models the interacting process models can reproduce a range of trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and thus optimize social value of many water and environmental resources. Some examples of this next-generation of hydro-enviro- economic models are reviewed. In these models implicit production functions for environmental goods are combined with hydrologic equations of motion and economic response functions. We discuss models that show interaction between

Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

2004-08-01

We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

Nuclear power investment risk economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houghton, W.J.; Postula, F.D.

1985-12-01

This paper describes an economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by a utility due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however, the owning utility faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for the incapacitated nuclear power. Additional expenses are incurred by the utility for plant repair and if necessary, decontamination costs. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates. Over 60 economic variables contribute to the net cost uncertainty. The values of these variables are treated as uncertainty distributions and are used in a Monte carlo computer program to evaluate the cost uncertainty (investment risk) associated with damage which could occur from various categories of initiating accidents. As an example, results of computations for various levels of damage associated with a loss of coolant accident are shown as a range of consequential plant downtime and unrecovered cost. A typical investment risk profile is shown for these types of accidents. Cost/revenue values for each economic factor are presented for a Three Mile Island - II type accident, e.g., uncontrolled core heatup. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

Integrated modelling of economic-energy-environment scenarios - The impact of China and India's economic growth on energy use and CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roques, F.; Sassi, O.; Guivarch, C.; Waisman, H.; Crassous, R.; Hourcade, J.Ch.

2009-03-01

A hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R is implemented to capture the macro-economic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while ensuring the micro-economic and macro-economic consistency of the different scenarios studied. The dual representation of the hybrid model facilitates the incorporation of energy sector expertise in internally consistent scenarios. The paper describes how the hybrid model was used to assess the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in China and India in the energy and emissions scenarios of the International Energy Agency. (authors)

Using ecosystem services to represent the environment in hydro-economic models

Science.gov (United States)

Momblanch, Andrea; Connor, Jeffery D.; Crossman, Neville D.; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

2016-07-01

Demand for water is expected to grow in line with global human population growth, but opportunities to augment supply are limited in many places due to resource limits and expected impacts of climate change. Hydro-economic models are often used to evaluate water resources management options, commonly with a goal of understanding how to maximise water use value and reduce conflicts among competing uses. The environment is now an important factor in decision making, which has resulted in its inclusion in hydro-economic models. We reviewed 95 studies applying hydro-economic models, and documented how the environment is represented in them and the methods they use to value environmental costs and benefits. We also sought out key gaps and inconsistencies in the treatment of the environment in hydro-economic models. We found that representation of environmental values of water is patchy in most applications, and there should be systematic consideration of the scope of environmental values to include and how they should be valued. We argue that the ecosystem services framework offers a systematic approach to identify the full range of environmental costs and benefits. The main challenges to more holistic representation of the environment in hydro-economic models are the current limits to understanding of ecological functions which relate physical, ecological and economic values and critical environmental thresholds; and the treatment of uncertainty.

Aspen: A microsimulation model of the economy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basu, N.; Pryor, R.J.; Quint, T.; Arnold, T.

1996-10-01

This report presents, Aspen. Sandia National Laboratories is developing this new agent-based microeconomic simulation model of the U.S. economy. The model is notable because it allows a large number of individual economic agents to be modeled at a high level of detail and with a great degree of freedom. Some features of Aspen are (a) a sophisticated message-passing system that allows individual pairs of agents to communicate, (b) the use of genetic algorithms to simulate the learning of certain agents, and (c) a detailed financial sector that includes a banking system and a bond market. Results from runs of the model are also presented.

RSYST: From nuclear reactor calculations towards a highly sophisticated scientific software integration environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noack, M.; Seybold, J.; Ruehle, R.

1996-01-01

The software environment RSYST was originally used to solve problems of reactor physics. The consideration of advanced scientific simulation requirements and the strict application of modern software design principles led to a system which is perfectly suitable to solve problems in various complex scientific problem domains. Starting with a review of the early days of RSYST, we describe the straight evolution driven by the need of software environment which combines the advantages of a high-performance database system with the capability to integrate sophisticated scientific technical applications. The RSYST architecture is presented and the data modelling capabilities are described. To demonstrate the powerful possibilities and flexibility of the RSYST environment, we describe a wide range of RSYST applications, e.g., mechanical simulations of multibody systems, which are used in biomechanical research, civil engineering and robotics. In addition, a hypermedia system which is used for scientific technical training and documentation is presented. (orig.) [de

Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

1979-10-01

This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

The relation between maturity and sophistication shall be properly dealt with in nuclear power development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Yongjiang

2009-01-01

The paper analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the second generation improved technologies and third generation technologies mainly developed in China in terms of safety and economy. The paper also discusses the maturity of the second generation improved technologies and the sophistication of the third generation technologies respectively. Meanwhile, the paper proposes that the advantage and disadvantage of second generation improved technologies and third generation technologies should be carefully taken into consideration and the relationship between the maturity and sophistication should be properly dealt with in the current stage. A two-step strategy shall be taken as a solution to solve the problem of insufficient capacity of nuclear power, trace and develop the third generation technologies, so as to ensure the sound and fast development of nuclear power. (authors)

Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

2018-06-01

Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zining Yang

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at both macro and micro levels. First, a new political capacity measurement is used; and the system dynamics model is validated with the latest data. Second, the endogenous attributes are fused with non-cooperative game theory in an agent-based framework to simulate the interactive political economic dynamics of individual intra-societal transactions. Finally, macro and micro levels are connected with policy levers of political capacity and political instability by merging system dynamics and agent-based components. This paper also explores the agent-based model's behavioral dynamics via simulation methods to identify paths towards economic development and political stability. This model demonstrates micro level human agency can act, react and interact, thus driving macro level dynamics, while macro structures provide political, social and economic environments that constrain or incentivize micro level human behavior.

MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment. [Bureau of Economic Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olsen, R.J.; Westley, G.W.; Herzog, H.W. Jr.; Kerley, C.R.; Bjornstad, D.J.; Vogt, D.P.; Bray, L.G.; Grady, S.T.; Nakosteen, R.A.

1977-10-01

This report documents the development of MULTIREGION, a computer model of regional and interregional socio-economic development. The MULTIREGION model interprets the economy of each BEA economic area as a labor market, measures all activity in terms of people as members of the population (labor supply) or as employees (labor demand), and simultaneously simulates or forecasts the demands and supplies of labor in all BEA economic areas at five-year intervals. In general the outputs of MULTIREGION are intended to resemble those of the Water Resource Council's OBERS projections and to be put to similar planning and analysis purposes. This report has been written at two levels to serve the needs of multiple audiences. The body of the report serves as a fairly nontechnical overview of the entire MULTIREGION project; a series of technical appendixes provide detailed descriptions of the background empirical studies of births, deaths, migration, labor force participation, natural resource employment, manufacturing employment location, and local service employment used to construct the model.

Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable model of evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Hanel, Rudolf

2010-07-01

We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market, they may compete against already existing goods. In other words, new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism, existing goods may be driven out from the market—often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets—which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business 'cycles'. Model time series of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics time series on long timescales, such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions and volatility clustering. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self-organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

Agent-Based and Macroscopic Modeling of the Complex Socio-Economic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksejus Kononovičius

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The focus of this contribution is the correspondence between collective behavior and inter-individual interactions in the complex socio-economic systems. Currently there is a wide selection of papers proposing various models for the both collective behavior and inter-individual interactions in the complex socio-economic systems. Yet the papers directly relating these two concepts are still quite rare. By studying this correspondence we discuss a cutting edge approach to the modeling of complex socio-economic systems. Design/methodology/approach – The collective behavior is often modeled using stochastic and ordinary calculus, while the inter-individual interactions are modeled using agent-based models. In order to obtain the ideal model, one should start from these frameworks and build a bridge to reach another. This is a formidable task, if we consider the top-down approach, namely starting from the collective behavior and moving towards inter-individual interactions. The bottom-up approach also fails, if complex inter-individual interaction models are considered, yet in this case we can start with simple models and increase the complexity as needed. Findings – The bottom-up approach, considering simple agent-based herding model as a model for the inter-individual interactions, allows us to derive certain macroscopic models of the complex socio-economic systems from the agent-based perspective. This provides interesting insights into the collective behavior patterns observed in the complex socio-economic systems. Research limitations/implications –The simplicity of the agent-based herding model might be considered to be somewhat limiting. Yet this simplicity implies that the model is highly universal. It reproduces universal features of social behavior and also can be further extended to fit different socio-economic scenarios. Practical implications – Insights provided in this contribution might be used to modify existing

The Model of Optimum Economic Growth with the Induced Scientific-Technological Progress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dilenko Viktor A.

2017-07-01

Full Text Available On the basis of the economic dynamics of the Harrod – Domar model, a model of optimum economic growth in line with the induced scientific-technological progress (STP has been built. In order to reflect the induced scientific-technological progress, with this model is proposed to further allocate the income element that is specially used for the investment of innovation activity, implementation of which reduces the capital intensity in development of the discussed economy. For the simplest way of presenting an economic mechanism for the investment of induced STP, analytical solutions of an appropriate task in optimum management have been obtained. Studying these decisions allowed to reveal the characteristics of the impact of parameters of scientific-technological progress and the analyzed economic system on choosing the best trajectory for its evolution. Possible directions for further developing the results presented can be considered the tasks in building and analyzing models of optimum economic growth that implement different investment options for the induced STP, as well as the models in which this investment mechanism is not exogenouslyed, but rather the result of the corresponding economic-mathematical research.

Economic Crisis and Marital Problems in Turkey: Testing the Family Stress Model

Science.gov (United States)

Aytac, Isik A.; Rankin, Bruce H.

2009-01-01

This paper applied the family stress model to the case of Turkey in the wake of the 2001 economic crisis. Using structural equation modeling and a nationally representative urban sample of 711 married women and 490 married men, we tested whether economic hardship and the associated family economic strain on families resulted in greater marital…

Modeling and simulation of economic processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan Brumar

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

The physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis and assessment for NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Jiming

1992-01-01

A set physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis referring to international general sub-item and account of investment and constant money levelized model and combining current economic analysis method in China for nuclear power plant was established. The model can be used in economic analysis not only for nuclear power plant but also for coal-fired power plant and can satisfy demand of doing economic analysis and assessment for nuclear power plant and conventional power plant

Control of chaotic dynamics in an OLG economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendes, Diana A; Mendes, Vivaldo

2005-01-01

This paper deals with the control of chaotic economic motion. We show that very complicated dynamics arising, e.g., from an overlapping generations model (OLG) with production and an endogenous intertemporal decision between labour and leisure, which produces chaos, can in fact be controlled with relative simplicity. The aperiodic and very complicated motion that stems from this model can be subject to control by small perturbations in its parameters and turned into a stable steady state or into a regular cycle. Therefore, the system can be controlled without changing of its original properties. To perform the control of the totally unstable equilibrium (both eigenvalues with modulus greater than unity) in this economic model we apply the pole-placement technique, developed by Romeiras, Grebogi, Ott and Dayawansa (1992). The application of control methods to chaotic economic dynamics may raise serious reservations, at least on mathematical and logical grounds, to some recent views on economics which have argued that economic policy becomes useless in the presence of chaotic motion (and thus, that the performance of the economic system cannot be improved by public intervention, i.e., that the amplitude of cycles can not be controlled or reduced). In fact, the fine tuning of the system (that is, the control) can be performed without having to rely only on infinitesimal accuracy in the perturbation to the system, because the control can be performed with larger or smaller perturbations, but neither too large (because these would lead to a different fixed point of the system, therefore modifying its original nature), nor too small because the control becomes too inefficient

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2008-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Modeling Renewable Penertration Using a Network Economic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lamont, A.

2001-03-01

This paper evaluates the accuracy of a network economic modeling approach in designing energy systems having renewable and conventional generators. The network approach models the system as a network of processes such as demands, generators, markets, and resources. The model reaches a solution by exchanging prices and quantity information between the nodes of the system. This formulation is very flexible and takes very little time to build and modify models. This paper reports an experiment designing a system with photovoltaic and base and peak fossil generators. The level of PV penetration as a function of its price and the capacities of the fossil generators were determined using the network approach and using an exact, analytic approach. It is found that the two methods agree very closely in terms of the optimal capacities and are nearly identical in terms of annual system costs.

The role of decision analytic modeling in the health economic assessment of spinal intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Natalie C; Skelly, Andrea C; Ziewacz, John E; Cahill, Kevin; McGirt, Matthew J

2014-10-15

Narrative review. To review the common tenets, strengths, and weaknesses of decision modeling for health economic assessment and to review the use of decision modeling in the spine literature to date. For the majority of spinal interventions, well-designed prospective, randomized, pragmatic cost-effectiveness studies that address the specific decision-in-need are lacking. Decision analytic modeling allows for the estimation of cost-effectiveness based on data available to date. Given the rising demands for proven value in spine care, the use of decision analytic modeling is rapidly increasing by clinicians and policy makers. This narrative review discusses the general components of decision analytic models, how decision analytic models are populated and the trade-offs entailed, makes recommendations for how users of spine intervention decision models might go about appraising the models, and presents an overview of published spine economic models. A proper, integrated, clinical, and economic critical appraisal is necessary in the evaluation of the strength of evidence provided by a modeling evaluation. As is the case with clinical research, all options for collecting health economic or value data are not without their limitations and flaws. There is substantial heterogeneity across the 20 spine intervention health economic modeling studies summarized with respect to study design, models used, reporting, and general quality. There is sparse evidence for populating spine intervention models. Results mostly showed that interventions were cost-effective based on $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. Spine care providers, as partners with their health economic colleagues, have unique clinical expertise and perspectives that are critical to interpret the strengths and weaknesses of health economic models. Health economic models must be critically appraised for both clinical validity and economic quality before altering health care policy, payment strategies, or

Models of economic geography : dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knaap, Thijs

2004-01-01

In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of

Unification and mechanistic detail as drivers of model construction: models of networks in economics and sociology.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuorikoski, Jaakko; Marchionni, Caterina

2014-12-01

We examine the diversity of strategies of modelling networks in (micro) economics and (analytical) sociology. Field-specific conceptions of what explaining (with) networks amounts to or systematic preference for certain kinds of explanatory factors are not sufficient to account for differences in modelling methodologies. We argue that network models in both sociology and economics are abstract models of network mechanisms and that differences in their modelling strategies derive to a large extent from field-specific conceptions of the way in which a good model should be a general one. Whereas the economics models aim at unification, the sociological models aim at a set of mechanism schemas that are extrapolatable to the extent that the underlying psychological mechanisms are general. These conceptions of generality induce specific biases in mechanistic explanation and are related to different views of when knowledge from different fields should be seen as relevant.

Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

2001-01-01

This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

Economic modelling with low-cognition agents

Science.gov (United States)

Ormerod, Paul

2006-10-01

The standard socio-economic model (SSSM) postulates very considerable cognitive powers on the part of its agents. They are able to gather all relevant information in any given situation, and to take the optimal decision on the basis of it, given their tastes and preferences. This behavioural rule is postulated to be universal. The concept of bounded rationality relaxes this somewhat, by permitting agents to have access to only limited amounts of information. But agents still optimise subject to their information set and tastes. Empirical work in economics over the past 20 years or so has shown that in general these behavioural postulates lack empirical validity. Instead, agents appear to have limited ability to gather information, and use simple rules of thumb to process the information which they have in order to take decisions. Building theoretical models on these realistic foundations which give better accounts of empirical phenomena than does the SSSM is an important challenge to both economists and econophysicists. Considerable progress has already been made in a short space of time, and examples are given in this paper.

Modeling the economics of LLW volume reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voth, M.H.; Witzig, W.F.

1986-01-01

Generators of low-level (radioactive) waste (LLW) are under pressure to implement volume reduction (VR) programs for political and economic reasons. Political reasons include the appearance of generating less waste or meeting quotas. Economic reasons include avoiding high disposal costs and associated surcharges. Volume reduction results in less total volume over which fixed disposal costs are allocated and therefore higher unit costs for disposal. As numerous small compacts are developed, this often overlooked effect becomes more pronounced. The described model presents two unique significant features. First, a feedback loop considers the impact of VR on disposal rates, and second, it appeals to logic without extensive knowledge of VR technology or computer modeling. The latter feature is especially useful in conveying information to students and nontechnical decision makers, demonstrating the impact of each of a complicated set of variables with reproducible results

An Idealized Cognitive Model Analysis of Metaphors in American Economic News Report

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Yang

2018-03-01

On the basis of the theoretical framework of Lakoff’s Conceptual Metaphor, the paper researches into the cognitive model of conceptual metaphors in American Economic News Reports. Moreover, the paper tries to analyze economic discourse by the application of Idealized Cognitive Model of its metaphorical thinking combined with cultural model and reflect the ideology of the media. It aims to help English learners ponder the implied meaning the economic news reports conveyed and take a new look at metaphors between the lines.

Criteria for comparing economic impact models of tourism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Bryon, J.

2012-01-01

There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation

Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

1994-01-01

An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

Limitations of JEDI Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

Science.gov (United States)

Group's IMPLAN accounting software. For JEDI, these are updated every two years for the best available -output modeling remains a widely used methodology for measuring economic development activity. Definition definition of the geographic area under consideration. Datasets of multipliers from IMPLAN are available at

Economic Modeling Considerations for Rare Diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearson, Isobel; Rothwell, Ben; Olaye, Andrew; Knight, Christopher

2018-05-01

To identify challenges that affect the feasibility and rigor of economic models in rare diseases and strategies that manufacturers have employed in health technology assessment submissions to demonstrate the value of new orphan products that have limited study data. Targeted reviews of PubMed, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE's) Highly Specialised Technologies (HST), and the Scottish Medicines Consortium's (SMC's) ultra-orphan submissions were performed. A total of 19 PubMed studies, 3 published NICE HSTs, and 11 ultra-orphan SMC submissions were eligible for inclusion. In rare diseases, a number of different factors may affect the model's ability to comply with good practice recommendations. Many products for the treatment of rare diseases have an incomplete efficacy and safety profile at product launch. In addition, there is often limited available natural history and epidemiology data. Information on the direct and indirect cost burden of an orphan disease also may be limited, making it difficult to estimate the potential economic benefit of treatment. These challenges can prevent accurate estimation of a new product's benefits in relation to costs. Approaches that can address such challenges include using patient and/or clinician feedback to inform model assumptions; data from disease analogues; epidemiological techniques, such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison; and long-term data collection. Modeling in rare diseases is often challenging; however, a number of approaches are available to support the development of model structures and the collation of input parameters and to manage uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Clements, Paul C; McGregor, John D; Cohen, Sholom G

2005-01-01

.... This report presents the Structured Intuitive Model of Product Line Economics (SIMPLE), a general-purpose business model that supports the estimation of the costs and benefits in a product line development organization...

A mean-field game economic growth model

KAUST Repository

Gomes, Diogo A.; Lafleche, Laurent; Nurbekyan, Levon

2016-01-01

Here, we examine a mean-field game (MFG) that models the economic growth of a population of non-cooperative, rational agents. In this MFG, agents are described by two state variables - the capital and consumer goods they own. Each agent seeks

Bio-economic household modelling for agricultural intensification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kruseman, G.

2000-01-01

This study contributes to the quest for sustainable agricultural intensification through the development of a quantitative bio-economic modelling framework that allows assessment of new technology and policy measures in terms of household welfare and sustainability indicators. The main aim

Editorial statement: The first year of the European Journal of Government and Economics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diego Varela

2012-12-01

Full Text Available In this editorial statement we present a balance of the first year of life of the European Journal of Government and Economics. We discuss the main developments that concern the journal’s indexation by academic databases. We also comment on the approval of a code of publication ethics and malpractice. Finally, we emphasise the dangers of excessive technical sophistication and the need to keep an integrated approach between the fields of political science and economics, according to the spirit of the journal.

A non-linear model of economic production processes

Science.gov (United States)

Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

2003-06-01

We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

System dynamics modelling and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivona Milić Beran

2015-10-01

Full Text Available System dynamics modelling is one of the best scientific methods for modelling complex, nonlinear natural, economic and technical system dynamics as it enables both monitoring and assessment of the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. Intellectual capital is defined as “the ability to transform knowledge and intangible assets into resources to create wealth for a company and a country.” Transformation of knowledge is crucial. Knowledge increases a country’s wealth only if its importance is recognized and applied differently from existing work practices. The aim of this paper is to show the efficiency of modelling system dynamics and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. A computer simulation provided a mathematical model, providing practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e. the analysis of economic growth and observation of mutual correlation between individual parameters. The results of the simulation are presented in graphical form. The dynamic model of the effects of intellectual capital on Croatia’s economic growth has been verified by comparing simulation results with existing data on economic growth.

Replicating Health Economic Models: Firm Foundations or a House of Cards?

Science.gov (United States)

Bermejo, Inigo; Tappenden, Paul; Youn, Ji-Hee

2017-11-01

Health economic evaluation is a framework for the comparative analysis of the incremental health gains and costs associated with competing decision alternatives. The process of developing health economic models is usually complex, financially expensive and time-consuming. For these reasons, model development is sometimes based on previous model-based analyses; this endeavour is usually referred to as model replication. Such model replication activity may involve the comprehensive reproduction of an existing model or 'borrowing' all or part of a previously developed model structure. Generally speaking, the replication of an existing model may require substantially less effort than developing a new de novo model by bypassing, or undertaking in only a perfunctory manner, certain aspects of model development such as the development of a complete conceptual model and/or comprehensive literature searching for model parameters. A further motivation for model replication may be to draw on the credibility or prestige of previous analyses that have been published and/or used to inform decision making. The acceptability and appropriateness of replicating models depends on the decision-making context: there exists a trade-off between the 'savings' afforded by model replication and the potential 'costs' associated with reduced model credibility due to the omission of certain stages of model development. This paper provides an overview of the different levels of, and motivations for, replicating health economic models, and discusses the advantages, disadvantages and caveats associated with this type of modelling activity. Irrespective of whether replicated models should be considered appropriate or not, complete replicability is generally accepted as a desirable property of health economic models, as reflected in critical appraisal checklists and good practice guidelines. To this end, the feasibility of comprehensive model replication is explored empirically across a small

Close to the Clothes : Materiality and Sophisticated Archaism in Alexander van Slobbe’s Design Practices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baronian, M.-A.

This article looks at the work of contemporary Dutch fashion designer Alexander van Slobbe (1959) and examines how, since the 1990s, his fashion practices have consistently and consciously put forward a unique reflection on questions related to materiality, sophisticated archaism, luxury,

Close to the Clothes: Materiality and Sophisticated Archaism in Alexander van Slobbe’s Design Practices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baronian, M.-A.

This article looks at the work of contemporary Dutch fashion designer Alexander van Slobbe (1959) and examines how, since the 1990s, his fashion practices have consistently and consciously put forward a unique reflection on questions related to materiality, sophisticated archaism, luxury,

Evaluating Behavioral Economic Models of Heavy Drinking Among College Students.

Science.gov (United States)

Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Berlin, Kristoffer S; Murphy, James G

2018-05-14

Heavy drinking among college students is a significant public health concern that can lead to profound social and health consequences, including alcohol use disorder. Behavioral economics posits that low future orientation and high valuation of alcohol (alcohol demand) combined with deficits in alternative reinforcement increase the likelihood of alcohol misuse (Bickel et al., 2011). Despite this, no study has examined the incremental utility of all three variables simultaneously in a comprehensive model METHOD: The current study uses structural equation modeling to test the associations between behavioral economic variables - alcohol demand (latent), future orientation (measured with a delay discounting task and the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) scale), and proportionate substance-related reinforcement - and alcohol consumption and problems among 393 heavy drinking college students. Two models are tested: 1) an iteration of the reinforcer pathology model that includes an interaction between future orientation and alcohol demand; and 2) an alternative model evaluating the interconnectedness of behavioral economic variables in predicting problematic alcohol use RESULTS: The interaction effects in model 1 were nonsignificant. Model 2 suggests that greater alcohol demand and proportionate substance-related reinforcement is associated with greater alcohol consumption and problems. Further, CFC was associated with alcohol-related problems and lower proportionate substance-related reinforcement but was not significantly associated with alcohol consumption or alcohol demand. Finally, greater proportionate substance-related reinforcement was associated with greater alcohol demand CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the validity of the behavioral economic reinforcer pathology model as applied to young adult heavy drinking. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dharmavaram, S.; Mount, J.B.; Donahue, B.A.

1990-01-01

The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

Economics as a factor in models of behavioral motivation and change.

Science.gov (United States)

Montoya, I D; Atkinson, J S; Trevino, R A

2000-02-01

This note first presents a summary of four main behavioral models that are used to explain behavioral motivation and change. Three models are based on psychosocial theory. They are: 1) the Theory of Reasoned Action, 2) the Theory of Planned Behavior, and 3) the Theory of Stages-of-Change. The fourth model is based on economic theory and is known as the Rational Addiction Model. Each model is analyzed for its strengths and weaknesses. The note concludes by arguing for the usefulness of integrating the economic and the psychosocial models to study drug use. Specific examples and suggestions are presented.

Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

OpenAIRE

Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

2006-01-01

Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

A Snapshot of Serial Rape: An Investigation of Criminal Sophistication and Use of Force on Victim Injury and Severity of the Assault.

Science.gov (United States)

de Heer, Brooke

2016-02-01

Prior research on rapes reported to law enforcement has identified criminal sophistication and the use of force against the victim as possible unique identifiers to serial rape versus one-time rape. This study sought to contribute to the current literature on reported serial rape by investigating how the level of criminal sophistication of the rapist and use of force used were associated with two important outcomes of rape: victim injury and overall severity of the assault. In addition, it was evaluated whether rapist and victim ethnicity affected these relationships. A nation-wide sample of serial rape cases reported to law enforcement collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was analyzed (108 rapists, 543 victims). Results indicated that serial rapists typically used a limited amount of force against the victim and displayed a high degree of criminal sophistication. In addition, the more criminally sophisticated the perpetrator was, the more sexual acts he performed on his victim. Finally, rapes between a White rapist and White victim were found to exhibit higher levels of criminal sophistication and were more severe in terms of number and types of sexual acts committed. These findings provide a more in-depth understanding of serial rape that can inform both academics and practitioners in the field about contributors to victim injury and severity of the assault. © The Author(s) 2014.

Multi-basin, Multi-sector Drought Economic Impact Model in Python: Development and Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Bearden, B.; Johnson, T. G.

2015-12-01

Drought is one of the most economically disastrous natural hazards, one whose impacts are exacerbated by the lack of abrupt onset and offset that define tornados and hurricanes. In the United States, about 30 billion dollars losses is caused by drought in 2012, resulting in widespread economic impacts for societies, industries, agriculture, and recreation. And in California, the drought cost statewide economic losses about 2.2 billion, with a total loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs. Driven by a variety of factors including climate change, population growth, increased water demands, alteration to land cover, drought occurs widely all over the world. Drought economic consequence assessment tool are greatly needed to allow decision makers and stakeholders to anticipate and manage effectively. In this study, current drought economic impact modeling methods were reviewed. Most of these models only deal with the impact in the agricultural sector with a focus on a single basin; few of these models analyze long term impact. However, drought impacts are rarely restricted to basin boundaries, and cascading economic impacts are likely to be significant. A holistic approach to multi-basin, multi-sector drought economic impact assessment is needed.In this work, we developed a new model for drought economic impact assessment, Drought Economic Impact Model in Python (PyDEM). This model classified all business establishments into thirteen categories based on NAICS, and using a continuous dynamic social accounting matrix approach, coupled with calculation of the indirect consequences for the local and regional economies and the various resilience. In addition, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model was combined for analyzing drought caused soil erosion together with agriculture production, and then the long term impacts of drought were achieved. A visible output of this model was presented in GIS. In this presentation, Choctawhatchee-Pea-Yellow River Basins, Alabama

Simple Plans or Sophisticated Habits? State, Transition and Learning Interactions in the Two-Step Task.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Akam

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The recently developed 'two-step' behavioural task promises to differentiate model-based from model-free reinforcement learning, while generating neurophysiologically-friendly decision datasets with parametric variation of decision variables. These desirable features have prompted its widespread adoption. Here, we analyse the interactions between a range of different strategies and the structure of transitions and outcomes in order to examine constraints on what can be learned from behavioural performance. The task involves a trade-off between the need for stochasticity, to allow strategies to be discriminated, and a need for determinism, so that it is worth subjects' investment of effort to exploit the contingencies optimally. We show through simulation that under certain conditions model-free strategies can masquerade as being model-based. We first show that seemingly innocuous modifications to the task structure can induce correlations between action values at the start of the trial and the subsequent trial events in such a way that analysis based on comparing successive trials can lead to erroneous conclusions. We confirm the power of a suggested correction to the analysis that can alleviate this problem. We then consider model-free reinforcement learning strategies that exploit correlations between where rewards are obtained and which actions have high expected value. These generate behaviour that appears model-based under these, and also more sophisticated, analyses. Exploiting the full potential of the two-step task as a tool for behavioural neuroscience requires an understanding of these issues.

Simple Plans or Sophisticated Habits? State, Transition and Learning Interactions in the Two-Step Task

Science.gov (United States)

Akam, Thomas; Costa, Rui; Dayan, Peter

2015-01-01

The recently developed ‘two-step’ behavioural task promises to differentiate model-based from model-free reinforcement learning, while generating neurophysiologically-friendly decision datasets with parametric variation of decision variables. These desirable features have prompted its widespread adoption. Here, we analyse the interactions between a range of different strategies and the structure of transitions and outcomes in order to examine constraints on what can be learned from behavioural performance. The task involves a trade-off between the need for stochasticity, to allow strategies to be discriminated, and a need for determinism, so that it is worth subjects’ investment of effort to exploit the contingencies optimally. We show through simulation that under certain conditions model-free strategies can masquerade as being model-based. We first show that seemingly innocuous modifications to the task structure can induce correlations between action values at the start of the trial and the subsequent trial events in such a way that analysis based on comparing successive trials can lead to erroneous conclusions. We confirm the power of a suggested correction to the analysis that can alleviate this problem. We then consider model-free reinforcement learning strategies that exploit correlations between where rewards are obtained and which actions have high expected value. These generate behaviour that appears model-based under these, and also more sophisticated, analyses. Exploiting the full potential of the two-step task as a tool for behavioural neuroscience requires an understanding of these issues. PMID:26657806

Simple Plans or Sophisticated Habits? State, Transition and Learning Interactions in the Two-Step Task.

Science.gov (United States)

Akam, Thomas; Costa, Rui; Dayan, Peter

2015-12-01

The recently developed 'two-step' behavioural task promises to differentiate model-based from model-free reinforcement learning, while generating neurophysiologically-friendly decision datasets with parametric variation of decision variables. These desirable features have prompted its widespread adoption. Here, we analyse the interactions between a range of different strategies and the structure of transitions and outcomes in order to examine constraints on what can be learned from behavioural performance. The task involves a trade-off between the need for stochasticity, to allow strategies to be discriminated, and a need for determinism, so that it is worth subjects' investment of effort to exploit the contingencies optimally. We show through simulation that under certain conditions model-free strategies can masquerade as being model-based. We first show that seemingly innocuous modifications to the task structure can induce correlations between action values at the start of the trial and the subsequent trial events in such a way that analysis based on comparing successive trials can lead to erroneous conclusions. We confirm the power of a suggested correction to the analysis that can alleviate this problem. We then consider model-free reinforcement learning strategies that exploit correlations between where rewards are obtained and which actions have high expected value. These generate behaviour that appears model-based under these, and also more sophisticated, analyses. Exploiting the full potential of the two-step task as a tool for behavioural neuroscience requires an understanding of these issues.

A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy. Von Holle

2010-01-01

Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

A Framework for Developing the Structure of Public Health Economic Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Squires, Hazel; Chilcott, James; Akehurst, Ronald; Burr, Jennifer; Kelly, Michael P

2016-01-01

A conceptual modeling framework is a methodology that assists modelers through the process of developing a model structure. Public health interventions tend to operate in dynamically complex systems. Modeling public health interventions requires broader considerations than clinical ones. Inappropriately simple models may lead to poor validity and credibility, resulting in suboptimal allocation of resources. This article presents the first conceptual modeling framework for public health economic evaluation. The framework presented here was informed by literature reviews of the key challenges in public health economic modeling and existing conceptual modeling frameworks; qualitative research to understand the experiences of modelers when developing public health economic models; and piloting a draft version of the framework. The conceptual modeling framework comprises four key principles of good practice and a proposed methodology. The key principles are that 1) a systems approach to modeling should be taken; 2) a documented understanding of the problem is imperative before and alongside developing and justifying the model structure; 3) strong communication with stakeholders and members of the team throughout model development is essential; and 4) a systematic consideration of the determinants of health is central to identifying the key impacts of public health interventions. The methodology consists of four phases: phase A, aligning the framework with the decision-making process; phase B, identifying relevant stakeholders; phase C, understanding the problem; and phase D, developing and justifying the model structure. Key areas for further research involve evaluation of the framework in diverse case studies and the development of methods for modeling individual and social behavior. This approach could improve the quality of Public Health economic models, supporting efficient allocation of scarce resources. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics

A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ona Rakauskienė

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

Quantitative methods for management and economics

CERN Document Server

Chakravarty, Pulak

2009-01-01

""Quantitative Methods for Management and Economics"" is specially prepared for the MBA students in India and all over the world. It starts from the basics, such that even a beginner with out much mathematical sophistication can grasp the ideas and then comes forward to more complex and professional problems. Thus, both the ordinary students as well as ""above average: i.e., ""bright and sincere"" students would be benefited equally through this book.Since, most of the problems are solved or hints are given, students can do well within the short duration of the semesters of their busy course.

Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

OpenAIRE

Grandori, Anna

2010-01-01

The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

Ecological-economic modeling for biodiversity management: potential, pitfalls, and prospects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wätzold, F.; Drechsler, M.; Armstrong, C.W.; Baumgärtner, S.; Grimm, V.; Huth, A.; Perrings, C.; Possingham, H.P.; Shogren, J.F.; Skonhoft, A.; Verboom-Vasiljev, J.; Wissel, C.

2006-01-01

Ecologists and economists both use models to help develop strategies for biodiversity management. The practical use of disciplinary models, however, can be limited because ecological models tend not to address the socioeconomic dimension of biodiversity management, whereas economic models tend to

Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Boonen, Tim J; Li, Hong

2017-10-01

Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, we extend the Li and Lee model (Li and Lee 2005) by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. We find that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model.

A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Conall H; Edmunds, W John

2015-06-19

Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

Costs and benefits of controlling quarantine diseases : a bio-economic modeling approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Breukers, M.L.H.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Werf, van der W.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

2008-01-01

This article describes a bio-economic model to quantify the costs and benefits of controlling plant quarantine diseases. The model integrates the epidemiology and economic consequences of a quarantine disease. It allows for ex ante evaluation of control scenarios for their cost-effectiveness, taking

Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

2014-03-01

With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

Critical confrontation of standard and more sophisticated methods for modelling the dispersion in air of heavy gas clouds; evaluation and illustration of the intrinsic limitations of both categories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riethmuller, M.L.

1983-01-01

Mathematical models of gas dispersion have evolved drastically since the 1930's. For a long time, the most widely used approach was the so-called Gaussian model as described in practical terms by Turner or box models which have shown relative merits. In the field of heavy gas dispersion, the use of such approaches appeared somewhat limited and therefore new models have been proposed. Some of these new generation models were making use of the latest progress in turbulence modelling as derived from laboratory work as well as numerical advances. The advent of faster and larger computers made possible the development of three dimensional codes that were computing both flow field and gas dispersion taking into account details of the ground obstacles, heat exchange and possibly phase changes as well. The description of these new types of models makes them appear as a considerable improvement over the simpler approaches. However, recent comparisons between many of these have led to the conclusion that the scatter between predictions attained with sophisticated models was just as large as with other ones. It seems therefore, that current researchers might have fallen into the trap of confusing mathematical precision with accuracy. It is therefore felt necessary to enlighten this question by an investigation which, rather than comparing individual models, would analyse the key features of both approaches and put in evidence their relative merits and degree of realism when being really applied

DSEM, Radioactive Waste Disposal Site Economic Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, P.R.

2005-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: The Disposal Site Economic Model calculates the average generator price, or average price per cubic foot charged by a disposal facility to a waste generator, one measure of comparing the economic attractiveness of different waste disposal site and disposal technology combinations. The generator price is calculated to recover all costs necessary to develop, construct, operate, close, and care for a site through the end of the institutional care period and to provide the necessary financial returns to the site developer and lender (when used). Six alternative disposal technologies, based on either private or public financing, can be considered - shallow land disposal, intermediate depth disposal, above or below ground vaults, modular concrete canister disposal, and earth mounded concrete bunkers - based on either private or public development. 2 - Method of solution: The economic models incorporate default cost data from the Conceptual Design Report (DOE/LLW-60T, June 1987), a study by Rodgers Associates Engineering Corporation. Because all costs are in constant 1986 dollars, the figures must be modified to account for inflation. Interest during construction is either capitalized for the private developer or rolled into the loan for the public developer. All capital costs during construction are depreciated over the operation life of the site using straight-line depreciation for the private sector. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maxima of - 100 years post-operating period, 30 years operating period, 15 years pre-operating period. The model should be used with caution outside the range of 1.8 to 10.5 million cubic feet of total volume. Depreciation is not recognized with public development

Mathematical modeling in economics, ecology and the environment

CERN Document Server

Hritonenko, Natali

2013-01-01

Updated to textbook form by popular demand, this second edition discusses diverse mathematical models used in economics, ecology, and the environmental sciences with emphasis on control and optimization. It is intended for graduate and upper-undergraduate course use, however, applied mathematicians, industry practitioners, and a vast number of interdisciplinary academics will find the presentation highly useful. Core topics of this text are: ·         Economic growth and technological development ·         Population dynamics and human impact on the environment ·         Resource extraction and scarcity ·         Air and water contamination ·         Rational management of the economy and environment ·         Climate change and global dynamics The step-by-step approach taken is problem-based and easy to follow. The authors aptly demonstrate that the same models may be used to describe different economic and environmental processes and that similar invest...

A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

2014-01-01

Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

2014-01-01

Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philipp Emanuel Hirsch

Full Text Available Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity. Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

Bio-economic modeling of water quality improvements using a dynamic applied general equilibrium approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dellink, R.; Brouwer, R.; Linderhof, V.G.M.; Stone, K.

2011-01-01

An integrated bio-economic model is developed to assess the impacts of pollution reduction policies on water quality and the economy. Emission levels of economic activities to water are determined based on existing environmental accounts. These emission levels are built into a dynamic economic model

JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2015-08-01

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL’s researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects.

Nuclear power investment risk economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Postula, F.D.; Houghton, W.J.

1986-01-01

This paper describes the economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by an owner due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage, the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however the owner faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for power from the incapacitated nuclear plant. Additional expenses are incurred by the owner for plant repair and, if necessary, decontamination cost. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates

On the economic benefit of utility based estimation of a volatility model

OpenAIRE

Adam Clements; Annastiina Silvennoinen

2009-01-01

Forecasts of asset return volatility are necessary for many financial applications, including portfolio allocation. Traditionally, the parameters of econometric models used to generate volatility forecasts are estimated in a statistical setting and subsequently used in an economic setting such as portfolio allocation. Differences in the criteria under which the model is estimated and applied may inhibit reduce the overall economic benefit of a model in the context of portfolio allocation. Thi...

The sophisticated control of the tram bogie on track

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radovan DOLECEK

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the problems of routing control algorithms of new conception of tram vehicle bogie. The main goal of these research activities is wear reduction of rail wheels and tracks, wear reduction of traction energy losses and increasing of running comfort. The testing experimental tram vehicle with special bogie construction powered by traction battery is utilized for these purposes. This vehicle has a rotary bogie with independent rotating wheels driven by permanent magnets synchronous motors and a solid axle. The wheel forces in bogie are measured by large amounts of the various sensors placed on the testing experimental tram vehicle. Nowadays the designed control algorithms are implemented to the vehicle superset control system. The traction requirements and track characteristics have an effect to these control algorithms. This control including sophisticated routing brings other improvements which is verified and corrected according to individual traction and driving characteristics, and opens new possibilities.

Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2014-03-01

This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

Forecasting models for national economic planning

CERN Document Server

Heesterman, A R G

1972-01-01

This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them­ selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub­ ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non­ linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in suc...

Quantitative Analysis of Intra Urban Growth Modeling using socio economic agents by combining cellular automata model with agent based model

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, V. K.; Jha, A. K.; Gupta, K.; Srivastav, S. K.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that there is a significant improvement in the urban land use dynamics through modeling at finer spatial resolutions. Geo-computational models such as cellular automata and agent based model have given evident proof regarding the quantification of the urban growth pattern with urban boundary. In recent studies, socio- economic factors such as demography, education rate, household density, parcel price of the current year, distance to road, school, hospital, commercial centers and police station are considered to the major factors influencing the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern of the city. These factors have unidirectional approach to land use pattern which makes it difficult to analyze the spatial aspects of model results both quantitatively and qualitatively. In this study, cellular automata model is combined with generic model known as Agent Based Model to evaluate the impact of socio economic factors on land use pattern. For this purpose, Dehradun an Indian city is selected as a case study. Socio economic factors were collected from field survey, Census of India, Directorate of economic census, Uttarakhand, India. A 3X3 simulating window is used to consider the impact on LULC. Cellular automata model results are examined for the identification of hot spot areas within the urban area and agent based model will be using logistic based regression approach where it will identify the correlation between each factor on LULC and classify the available area into low density, medium density, high density residential or commercial area. In the modeling phase, transition rule, neighborhood effect, cell change factors are used to improve the representation of built-up classes. Significant improvement is observed in the built-up classes from 84 % to 89 %. However after incorporating agent based model with cellular automata model the accuracy improved from 89 % to 94 % in 3 classes of urban i.e. low density, medium density and commercial classes

An economic theory-based explanatory model of agricultural land-use patterns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Diogo, V.; Koomen, E.; Kuhlman, T.

2015-01-01

An economic theory-based land-use modelling framework is presented aiming to explain the causal link between economic decisions and resulting spatial patterns of agricultural land use. The framework assumes that farmers pursue utility maximisation in agricultural production systems, while

Towards low carbon business park energy systems: Classification of techno-economic energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timmerman, Jonas; Vandevelde, Lieven; Van Eetvelde, Greet

2014-01-01

To mitigate climate destabilisation, human-induced greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be curbed. A major share of these emissions originates from the industry and energy sectors. Hence, a low carbon shift in industrial and business park energy systems is called for. Low carbon business parks minimise energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by maximal exploitation of local renewable energy production, enhanced energy efficiency, and inter-firm heat exchange, combined in a collective energy system. The holistic approach of techno-economic energy models facilitates the design of such systems, while yielding an optimal trade-off between energetic, economic and environmental performances. However, no models custom-tailored for industrial park energy systems are detected in literature. In this paper, existing energy model classifications are scanned for adequate model characteristics and accordingly, a confined number of models are selected and described. Subsequently, a practical typology is proposed, existing of energy system evolution, optimisation, simulation, accounting and integration models, and key model features are compared. Finally, important features for a business park energy model are identified. - Highlights: • A holistic perspective on (low carbon) business park energy systems is introduced. • A new categorisation of techno-economic energy models is proposed. • Model characteristics are described per model category. • Essential model features for business park energy system modelling are identified. • A strategy towards a techno-economic energy model for business parks is proposed

Interactive model to assess economics of anaerobic digestion of the farm

Science.gov (United States)

1981-08-01

An interactive computer model, to provide economic assessment for on the farm anaerobic digestion systems was designed. The model is accessed as part of the MASEC Models Library. It consists of two phases: engineering analysis and economic analysis. User inputs are stored in a data base and may be retained for future use. Model outputs include a recap of user inputs, calculations for gas production, digester heat requirements, system revenues, yearly cash flow, and a graph of the net present value of the investment. The model is generalized so that nonfarm applications may also be analyzed. The program will work equally well for various digester designs such as continuously stirred reactors, plug flow systems, and fluidized bed columns.

Economic modeling and energy policy planning. [technology transfer, market research

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, R. G.; Schwartz, A., Jr.; Lievano, R. J.; Stone, J. C.

1974-01-01

A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

Economic Modeling as a Component of Academic Strategic Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

MacKinnon, Joyce; Sothmann, Mark; Johnson, James

2001-01-01

Computer-based economic modeling was used to enable a school of allied health to define outcomes, identify associated costs, develop cost and revenue models, and create a financial planning system. As a strategic planning tool, it assisted realistic budgeting and improved efficiency and effectiveness. (Contains 18 references.) (SK)

Introducing formalism in economics: The growth model of John von Neumann

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gloria-Palermo Sandye

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The objective is to interpret John von Neumann's growth model as a decisive step of the forthcoming formalist revolution of the 1950s in economics. This model gave rise to an impressive variety of comments about its classical or neoclassical underpinnings. We go beyond this traditional criterion and interpret rather this model as the manifestation of von Neumann's involvement in the formalist programme of mathematician David Hilbert. We discuss the impact of Kurt Gödel's discoveries on this programme. We show that the growth model reflects the pragmatic turn of the formalist programme after Gödel and proposes the extension of modern axiomatisation to economics.

Production economic models of fisheries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jesper Levring

The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers......, including all relevant factors in specific analyses is impossible, and it is therefore important to be aware of the most essential ones. As demonstrated in the literature review of Paper 1, a large number of factors may significantly influence fishermen’s short run behaviour, i.e. choice of gear type...

An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

OpenAIRE

Zining Yang

2016-01-01

In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED) is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at...

Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between...... benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic...... models. Decision-makers should not accept the results of a modelling study if the methods are not fully transparent and justified. Modellers should, whenever relevant, supplement a primary report of results with a technical report detailing and discussing the methodological choices made....

An Economic Model of U.S. Airline Operating Expenses

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Franklin D.

2005-01-01

This report presents a new economic model of operating expenses for 67 airlines. The model is based on data that the airlines reported to the United States Department of Transportation in 1999. The model incorporates expense-estimating equations that capture direct and indirect expenses of both passenger and cargo airlines. The variables and business factors included in the equations are detailed enough to calculate expenses at the flight equipment reporting level. Total operating expenses for a given airline are then obtained by summation over all aircraft operated by the airline. The model's accuracy is demonstrated by correlation with the DOT Form 41 data from which it was derived. Passenger airlines are more accurately modeled than cargo airlines. An appendix presents a concise summary of the expense estimating equations with explanatory notes. The equations include many operational and aircraft variables, which accommodate any changes that airline and aircraft manufacturers might make to lower expenses in the future. In 1999, total operating expenses of the 67 airlines included in this study amounted to slightly over $100.5 billion. The economic model reported herein estimates $109.3 billion.

What Can Human Geography Offer Climate Change Modelling?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grindsted, Thomas Skou

2014-01-01

behaviour to economic rationality when construed in sophisticated climate models and sometimes in nongeographical representations. The need to comprehensively take into consideration methodological approaches concerning the interface of society-environment interactions seems highly relevant to contemporary...... regularities, rationalities, and pre-analytic assumptions. Lastly we discuss challenges of constructing nature(s) and how we better understand the (geo) politics of climate change modeling.......The discipline of Geography may be one of the most prominent and oldest disciplines in the conceptualization of human–environment interactions that integrates elements from both natural and social sciences. Yet, much research on society–environment interactions on climate change reduces human...

Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) User Reference Guide: Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Yimin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

2015-02-01

This guide -- the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model User Reference Guide -- was developed to assist users in operating and understanding the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model. The guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and data sources used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model estimates local (e.g., county- or state-level) job creation, earnings, and output from total economic activity for a given fast pyrolysis biorefinery. These estimates include the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the construction and operation phases of biorefinery projects.Local revenue and supply chain impacts as well as induced impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from the IMPLAN software program. By determining the local economic impacts and job creation for a proposed biorefinery, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model can be used to field questions about the added value biorefineries might bring to a local community.

Real-Time Optimization for Economic Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sokoler, Leo Emil; Edlund, Kristian; Frison, Gianluca

2012-01-01

In this paper, we develop an efficient homogeneous and self-dual interior-point method for the linear programs arising in economic model predictive control. To exploit structure in the optimization problems, the algorithm employs a highly specialized Riccati iteration procedure. Simulations show...

INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR MODELING ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boldeanu Dana Maria

2009-05-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the most important financial and economic indicators at the level of some organizations from the same sector of activity, the selection of performance ratios and generating a particular analysis model help companies to move from the desire

Real-time economic optimization for a fermentation process using Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Lars Norbert; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2014-01-01

Fermentation is a widely used process in production of many foods, beverages, and pharmaceuticals. The main goal of the control system is to maximize profit of the fermentation process, and thus this is also the main goal of this paper. We present a simple dynamic model for a fermentation process...... and demonstrate its usefulness in economic optimization. The model is formulated as an index-1 differential algebraic equation (DAE), which guarantees conservation of mass and energy in discrete form. The optimization is based on recent advances within Economic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (E......-NMPC), and also utilizes the index-1 DAE model. The E-NMPC uses the single-shooting method and the adjoint method for computation of the optimization gradients. The process constraints are relaxed to soft-constraints on the outputs. Finally we derive the analytical solution to the economic optimization problem...

ECONOMIC FORECASTS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS USING EViews 5

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cornelia TomescuDumitrescu,

2009-05-01

Full Text Available The forecast of evolution of economic phenomena represent on the most the final objective of econometrics. It withal represent a real attempt of validity elaborate model. Unlike the forecasts based on the study of temporal series which have an recognizable inertial character the forecasts generated by econometric model with simultaneous equations are after to contour the future of ones of important economic variables toward the direct and indirect influences bring the bear on their about exogenous variables. For the relief of the calculus who the realization of the forecasts based on the econometric models its suppose is indicate the use of the specialized informatics programs. One of this is the EViews which is applied because it reduces significant the time who is destined of the econometric analysis and it assure a high accuracy of calculus and of the interpretation of results.

Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

2010-12-01

Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

Crises and Collective Socio-Economic Phenomena: Simple Models and Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2013-05-01

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the so-called Random Field Ising model ( rfim) provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilizing self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and that account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of rfim-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can fail badly at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria from being reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.

Integrated economic model of waste management: Case study for South Moravia region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiří Hřebíček

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper introduces and discusses the developed integrated economic model of municipal waste management of the Czech Republic, which was developed by authors as a balanced network model for a set of sources (mostly municipalities of municipal solid waste connected with a set of chosen waste treatment facilities processing their waste. Model is implemented as a combination of several economic submodels including environmental and economic point of view. It enables to formulate the optimisation problem in a concise way and the resulting model is easily scalable. Model involves submodels of waste prevention, collection and transport optimization, submodels of waste energy utilization (incineration and biogas plants and material recycling (composting and submodel of landfilling. Its size (number of sources and facilities depends only upon available data. Its application is used in the case study of the South Moravia region with verification of using time series waste data. The results enable to improve decision making in waste management sector.

Economic Disadvantage in Complex Family Systems: Expansion of Family Stress Models

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Melissa A.

2008-01-01

Economic disadvantage is associated with multiple risks to early socioemotional development. This article reviews research regarding family stress frameworks to model the pathways from economic disadvantage to negative child outcomes via family processes. Future research in this area should expand definitions of family and household to incorporate…

Multi-Attribute Modelling of Economic and Ecological Impacts of Cropping Systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bohanec, M.; Dzeroski, S.; Znidarsic, M.; Messéan, A.; Scatasta, S.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

2004-01-01

Modelling of economic and ecological impacts of genetically modified crops is a demanding task. We present some preliminary attempts made for the purpose of the ECOGEN project "Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops". One of the goals of the project is to develop a

Using an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Model to Develop Minimum Cost Water Supply Portfolios and Manage Supply Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Characklis, G. W.; Ramsey, J.

2004-12-01

Water scarcity has become a reality in many areas as a result of population growth, fewer available sources, and reduced tolerance for the environmental impacts of developing the new supplies that do exist. As a result, successfully managing future water supply risk will become more dependent on coordinating the use of existing resources. Toward that end, flexible supply strategies that can rapidly respond to hydrologic variability will provide communities with increasing economic advantages, particularly if the frequency of more extreme events (e.g., drought) increases due to global climate change. Markets for established commodities (e.g., oil, gas) often provide a framework for efficiently responding to changes in supply and demand. Water markets, however, have remained relatively crude, with most transactions involving permanent transfers and long regulatory processes. Recently, interest in the use of flexible short-term transfers (e.g., leases, options) has begun to motivate consideration of more sophisticated strategies for managing supply risk, strategies similar to those used in more mature markets. In this case, communities can benefit from some of the advantages that water enjoys over other commodities, in particular, the ability to accurately characterize the stochastic nature of supply and demand through hydrologic modeling. Hydrologic-economic models are developed for two different water scarce regions supporting active water markets: Edward Aquifer and Lower Rio Grande Valley. These models are used to construct portfolios of water supply transfers (e.g., permanent transfers, options, and spot leases) that minimize the cost of meeting a probabilistic reliability constraint. Real and simulated spot price distributions allow each type of transfer to be priced in a manner consistent with financial theory (e.g., Black-Scholes). Market simulations are integrated with hydrologic models such that variability in supply and demand are linked with price behavior

Modeling the clinical and economic implications of obesity using microsimulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, W; Huang, J; Chen, F; Iacobucci, W; Mocarski, M; Dall, T M; Perreault, L

2015-01-01

The obesity epidemic has raised considerable public health concerns, but there are few validated longitudinal simulation models examining the human and economic cost of obesity. This paper describes a microsimulation model as a comprehensive tool to understand the relationship between body weight, health, and economic outcomes. Patient health and economic outcomes were simulated annually over 10 years using a Markov-based microsimulation model. The obese population examined is nationally representative of obese adults in the US from the 2005-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, while a matched normal weight population was constructed to have similar demographics as the obese population during the same period. Prediction equations for onset of obesity-related comorbidities, medical expenditures, economic outcomes, mortality, and quality-of-life came from published trials and studies supplemented with original research. Model validation followed International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research practice guidelines. Among surviving adults, relative to a matched normal weight population, obese adults averaged $3900 higher medical expenditures in the initial year, growing to $4600 higher expenditures in year 10. Obese adults had higher initial prevalence and higher simulated onset of comorbidities as they aged. Over 10 years, excess medical expenditures attributed to obesity averaged $4280 annually-ranging from $2820 for obese category I to $5100 for obese category II, and $8710 for obese category III. Each excess kilogram of weight contributed to $140 higher annual costs, on average, ranging from $136 (obese I) to $152 (obese III). Poor health associated with obesity increased work absenteeism and mortality, and lowered employment probability, personal income, and quality-of-life. This validated model helps illustrate why obese adults have higher medical and indirect costs relative to normal weight adults, and shows that medical costs

Neural networks in economic modelling : An empirical study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verkooijen, W.J.H.

1996-01-01

This dissertation addresses the statistical aspects of neural networks and their usability for solving problems in economics and finance. Neural networks are discussed in a framework of modelling which is generally accepted in econometrics. Within this framework a neural network is regarded as a

Sophisticated Calculation of the 1oo4-architecture for Safety-related Systems Conforming to IEC61508

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayek, A; Al Bokhaiti, M; Schwarz, M H; Boercsoek, J

2012-01-01

With the publication and enforcement of the standard IEC 61508 of safety related systems, recent system architectures have been presented and evaluated. Among a number of techniques and measures to the evaluation of safety integrity level (SIL) for safety-related systems, several measures such as reliability block diagrams and Markov models are used to analyze the probability of failure on demand (PFD) and mean time to failure (MTTF) which conform to IEC 61508. The current paper deals with the quantitative analysis of the novel 1oo4-architecture (one out of four) presented in recent work. Therefore sophisticated calculations for the required parameters are introduced. The provided 1oo4-architecture represents an advanced safety architecture based on on-chip redundancy, which is 3-failure safe. This means that at least one of the four channels have to work correctly in order to trigger the safety function.

Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

KAUST Repository

Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A.

2014-01-01

Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences

Student Migration to Online Education: An Economic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenhauer, Joseph G.

2013-01-01

The popularity of distance education has increasingly led universities to consider expanding their online offerings. Remarkably few financial models have been presented for online courses, however, and fewer still have investigated the economic consequences of the migration, or cross-over, of students from traditional classes within the…

[The theory of the demographic transition as a reference for demo-economic models].

Science.gov (United States)

Genne, M

1981-01-01

The aim of the theory of demographic transition (TTD) is to better understand the behavior and interrelationship of economic and demographic variables. There are 2 types of demo-economic models: 1) the malthusian models, which consider demographic variables as pure exogenous variables, and 2) the neoclassical models, which consider demographic variables as strictly endogenous. If TTD can explore the behavior of exogenous and endogenous demographic variables, it cannot demonstrate neither the relation nor the order of causality among the various demographic and economic variables, but it is simply the theoretical framework of a complex social and economic phenomenon which started in Europe in the 19th Century, and which today can be extended to developing countries. There are 4 stages in the TTD; the 1st stage is characterized by high levels of fecundity and mortality; the 2nd stage is characterized by high fecundity levels and declining mortality levels; the 3rd stage is characterized by declining fecundity levels and low mortality levels; the 4th stage is characterized by low fertility and mortality levels. The impact of economic variables over mortality and birth rates is evident for mortality rates, which decline earlier and at a greater speed than birth rates. According to reliable mathematical predictions, around the year 1987 mortality rates in developing countries will have reached the low level of European countries, and growth rate will be only 1.5%. If the validity of demo-economic models has not yet been established, TTD has clearly shown that social and economic development is the factor which influences demographic expansion.

Modeling the Development of Vocational Competence: A Psychometric Model for Economic Domains

Science.gov (United States)

Klotz, Viola Katharina; Winther, Esther; Festner, Dagmar

2015-01-01

This article discusses the development of vocational competence through economic vocational educational training (VET) from a theoretical and psychometric perspective. Most assessment and competence models tend to adopt a state perspective toward assessments of competence and carve out different structures of competence for diverse vocational…

Economic analysis of Marine Protected Areas: Bioeconomic Modeling and Economic Valuation Approaches

OpenAIRE

Bui, Bich Xuan

2017-01-01

The papers 2 and 3 of this thesis are not available in Munin. Paper 2: Xuan, B. B., Sandorf, E. D., Aanesen, M.: “Informing Management Strategies for a Reserve: Results from a Discrete Choice Experiment Survey”. (Manuscript). Paper 3: Xuan, B. B.: “Extractive and Non-extractive Values of a Marine Protected Area: A Bio-economic Model Application". (Manuscript). Marine protected areas (MPAs) are often established for conservation objectives. Benefits provided by MPAs exceed pure biod...

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Developments in modelling the economic impact of Off-site accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haywood, S.M.; Robinson, C.A.; Faude, D.

1991-01-01

Models for assessing the economic consequences of accidental releases of radioactivity have application both in accident consequence codes and in decision aiding computer systems for use in emergency response. Such models may be applied in emergency planning, and studies in connection with the siting, design and licensing of nuclear facilities. Several models for predicting economic impact have been developed, in Europe and the US, and these are reviewed. A new model, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site), has been developed under the CEC MARIA programme and the features of the model are summarised. The costs calculated are a measure of the benefit foregone as a result of the accident, and in addition to tangible monetary costs the model attempts to include costs arising from the effect of the accident on individuals, for instance the disruption caused by the loss of homes. COCO-1 includes the cost of countermeasures, namely evacuation, relocation, sheltering, food restrictions and decontamination, and also the cost of health effects in the exposed population. The primary quantity used in COCO-1 to measure the economic value of land subject to restrictions on usage is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Examples of default data included in the model are presented, as are the results of an illustrative application. The limitations of COCO-1 are discussed, and areas where further data are needed are identified

Evaluation of the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model among Families Reporting Economic Pressure

Science.gov (United States)

Vandsburger, Etty; Biggerstaff, Marilyn A.

2004-01-01

This research evaluates the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model (double ABCX model) examining the effects resiliency resources on family functioning when families experience economic pressure. Families (N = 128) with incomes at or below the poverty line from a rural area of a southern state completed measures of perceived economic pressure,…

Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic growth : a multipopulation approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boonen, T.J.; Li, H.

2017-01-01

Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In

Conference at Caltech on Riesz Spaces, Positive Operators, and their Applications to Economics

CERN Document Server

Aliprantis, Charalambos D; Luxemburg, Wilhelmus A J

1991-01-01

Over the last fifty years advanced mathematical tools have become an integral part in the development of modern economic theory. Economists continue to invoke sophisticated mathematical techniques and ideas in order to understand complex economic and social problems. In the last ten years the theory of Riesz spaces (vector lattices) has been successfully applied to economic theory. By now it is understood relatively well that the lattice structure of Riesz spaces can be employed to capture and interpret several economic notions. On April 16-20, 1990, a small conference on Riesz Spaces, Positive Opera­ tors, and their Applications to Economics took place at the California Institute of Technology. The purpose of the conference was to bring mathematicians special­ ized in Riesz Spaces and economists specialized in General Equilibrium together to exchange ideas and advance the interdisciplinary cooperation between math­ ematicians and economists. This volume is a collection of papers that represent the talks a...

The Economic Basis of the Model of Traditional Montenegrin Masculinity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Branko Banović

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity is inseparable from the social formations that have contributed to its creation, hence the need for its more thorough economic, social and historical contextualization. It is particularly important to distinguish the two components of the model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity, which tend to be intertwined and are therefore difficult to separate. The first concerns the gender roles assigned to men and women in an economy based on livestock raising, warfare, and raiding, while the other concerns the concept of gender roles shaped by fictional, ethnological and historical narratives. The paper attempts to problematize the economic basis of the model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity in the context of a semi-nomadic livestock raising economy and a clan’s collective property.

Toward a synthetic economic systems modeling tool for sustainable exploitation of ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Colin; Courvisanos, Jerry; Crawford, John W

2011-02-01

Environmental resources that underpin the basic human needs of water, energy, and food are predicted to become in such short supply by 2050 that global security and the well-being of millions will be under threat. These natural commodities have been allowed to reach crisis levels of supply because of a failure of economic systems to sustain them. This is largely because there have been no means of integrating their exploitation into any economic model that effectively addresses ecological systemic failures in a way that provides an integrated ecological-economic tool that can monitor and evaluate market and policy targets. We review the reasons for this and recent attempts to address the problem while identifying outstanding issues. The key elements of a policy-oriented economic model that integrates ecosystem processes are described and form the basis of a proposed new synthesis approach. The approach is illustrated by an indicative case study that develops a simple model for rainfed and irrigated food production in the Murray-Darling basin of southeastern Australia. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

The Theoretical Basis of Modeling the Economic Mechanism of Intellectual Security of Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Puyda Halia V.

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the existing scientific approaches to the process of modeling the economic mechanism of intellectual security of enterprise. The author has allocated three approaches: process; based on IDFE0 methodology; system, considering the entities of economic activity as complex systems; and the so-called «information», based on the theory of economic mechanisms. The main features of each of the studied approaches have been disclosed, suggesting to consolidate them to obtain a synergistic effect in the construction of the economic mechanism of intellectual security of enterprises. The basic principles of creation of mechanisms of intellectual security of enterprise have been developed. Also, on the basis of the main postulate of the theory of economic mechanisms – reverse design, the cyclic passes process of designing the economic mechanism of intellectual security of enterprise has been illustrated. That, certainly, does not exhaust the theoretical problematics in the field of modeling the economic mechanisms of intellectual security of enterprise, raising new challenges for further researches.

Economic model of the US uranium market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owen, A.D.

1984-01-01

An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

Emergent behavior in a coupled economic and coastline model for beach nourishment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. D. Lazarus

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Developed coastal areas often exhibit a strong systemic coupling between shoreline dynamics and economic dynamics. "Beach nourishment", a common erosion-control practice, involves mechanically depositing sediment from outside the local littoral system onto an actively eroding shoreline to alter shoreline morphology. Natural sediment-transport processes quickly rework the newly engineered beach, causing further changes to the shoreline that in turn affect subsequent beach-nourishment decisions. To the limited extent that this landscape/economic coupling has been considered, evidence suggests that towns tend to employ spatially myopic economic strategies under which individual towns make isolated decisions that do not account for their neighbors. What happens when an optimization strategy that explicitly ignores spatial interactions is incorporated into a physical model that is spatially dynamic? The long-term attractor that develops for the coupled system (the state and behavior to which the system evolves over time is unclear. We link an economic model, in which town-manager agents choose economically optimal beach-nourishment intervals according to past observations of their immediate shoreline, to a simplified coastal-dynamics model that includes alongshore sediment transport and background erosion (e.g. from sea-level rise. Simulations suggest that feedbacks between these human and natural coastal processes can generate emergent behaviors. When alongshore sediment transport and spatially myopic nourishment decisions are coupled, increases in the rate of sea-level rise can destabilize economically optimal nourishment practices into a regime characterized by the emergence of chaotic shoreline evolution.

Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: Offshore Wind User Reference Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, E.; Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

2013-06-01

The Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed by NREL and MRG & Associates, is a spreadsheet based input-output tool. JEDI is meant to be a user friendly and transparent tool to estimate potential economic impacts supported by the development and operation of offshore wind projects. This guide describes how to use the model as well as technical information such as methodology, limitations, and data sources.

Low Level RF Including a Sophisticated Phase Control System for CTF3

CERN Document Server

Mourier, J; Nonglaton, J M; Syratchev, I V; Tanner, L

2004-01-01

CTF3 (CLIC Test Facility 3), currently under construction at CERN, is a test facility designed to demonstrate the key feasibility issues of the CLIC (Compact LInear Collider) two-beam scheme. When completed, this facility will consist of a 150 MeV linac followed by two rings for bunch-interleaving, and a test stand where 30 GHz power will be generated. In this paper, the work that has been carried out on the linac's low power RF system is described. This includes, in particular, a sophisticated phase control system for the RF pulse compressor to produce a flat-top rectangular pulse over 1.4 µs.

The role of economic strain on adolescent delinquency: a microsocial process model.

Science.gov (United States)

Low, Sabina; Sinclair, Ryan; Shortt, Joann Wu

2012-08-01

The current study examines the role of economic strain as a moderator of the microsocial processes influencing younger siblings' delinquency (externalizing behavior and substance use) in a longitudinal design. The younger siblings (122 younger brothers and 122 younger sisters) were from 244 families with same-sex biological siblings. Structural equation modeling was utilized to examine a process model whereby mothers' harsh/inconsistent parenting and older sibling delinquency influence younger siblings' delinquent behavior via sibling aggression and delinquent peer affiliation. Findings suggest that indirect mechanisms vary as a function of economic strain, with sibling aggression having a stronger, more detrimental effect on adolescent delinquency in economically strained families. Data suggest that familial economic conditions contextualize the relative roles of parenting, sibling, and peer processes in the transmission of risk to adolescent delinquency. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Gender Discrimination, Education and Economic Growth in a Generalized Uzawa-Lucas Two-Sector Model

OpenAIRE

Zhang Wei-Bin

2014-01-01

This paper is mainly concerned with relationships between economic growth and gender discrimination in labor markets and education. Although discrimination in different fields has well been addresses and modelled in the economic literature, there are only a few growth models with endogenous wealth and human capital accumulation, gender time distribution between work, leisure and education under gender (positive or negative) discrimination. The production and economic structures, human capital...

Modelling efficient innovative work: integration of economic and social psychological approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Babanova Yulia

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the relevance of integration of economic and social psychological approaches to the solution of enhancing the efficiency of innovation management. The content, features and specifics of the modelling methods within each of approaches are unfolded and options of integration are considered. The economic approach lies in the generation of the integrated matrix concept of management of innovative development of an enterprise in line with the stages of innovative work and the use of the integrated vector method for the evaluation of the innovative enterprise development level. The social psychological approach lies in the development of a system of psychodiagnostic indexes of activity resources within the scope of psychological innovative audit of enterprise management and development of modelling methods for the balance of activity trends. Modelling the activity resources is based on the system of equations accounting for the interaction type of psychodiagnostic indexes. Integration of two approaches includes a methodological level, a level of empirical studies and modelling methods. There are suggested options of integrating the economic and psychological approaches to analyze available material and non-material resources of the enterprises’ innovative work and to forecast an optimal option of development based on the implemented modelling methods.

Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Sheer, D. P.

2008-12-01

For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints

Economic impacts of climate change. Flooding and salinity in scenarios, models and cases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonkhoff, W.; Koops, O.; Van der Krogt, R.; Oude Essink, G.; Rietveld, E.

2008-07-01

In this report, climatic and economic scenarios are combined and future risks are calculated for the consequences of climate change, such as a rising sea level, flooding, extreme draughts and salinity. The calculation of these economic effects of climate change are based on climate scenarios of the KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute), TNO's RAEM model (Spatial General Economic Model), the high tide information system of the Dutch Ministry of Waterways and Public Works and the Space scanner of the Environmental Assessment Agency. Next to information on scenarios and models, this report also addresses damage calculations of flooding near Lopik and Ter Heide. The report ends with policy recommendations for adaptation policy. [mk] [nl

A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

2000-01-01

The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

A model for the calculation of the off-site economic consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallego, E.; Alonso, A.

1988-01-01

The off-site economic cost of nuclear reactor accidents will depend on the countermeasures adopted to reduce its radiological impact. The assessment of the direct costs of emergency countermeasures (evacuation, early relocation and food disposal) as well as those of long-term protective actions (food disposal, decontamination or interdiction) is the objective of a model under development, with the sponsorship of the CEC Radiation Protection Programme, called MECA (Model for assessing the Economic Consequences of Accidents). The meteorological and socio-economical peculiarities of each site studied will be taken into account, by means of a flexible meteorological sampling scheme, which considers the geographical distribution of population and economic centers, and a data-base, compatible with the existing European grid, that contains the population distribution and the economic characteristics of the environs of the site to be studied with more detail near the reactor. The paper summarizes the particular models which will be included in MECA and shows the importance of site-specific adaptable modelling for economic risk evaluation

Economics, modeling, planning and management of energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.; Khan, A.M.; Furlan, G.

1989-01-01

The Workshop attended by 89 participants from 40 countries aimed to provide participants with an overview of global and regional issues and to familiarize them with analytical tools and modeling techniques appropriate for the analysis and planning of national energy systems. Emphasis was placed on energy-economy-interaction, modelling for balancing energy demand and supply, technical-economic evaluation of energy supply alternatives and energy demand management. This volume presents some of the lectures delivered at the Workshop. The material has been organized in five parts under the headings General Review of Current Energy Trends, Energy and Technology Menu, Basic Analytical Approaches, Energy Modeling and Planning, and Energy Management and Policy. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the lectures presented. Refs, figs and tabs

Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models.

Science.gov (United States)

Sornette, Didier

2014-06-01

This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics--from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the 'Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis' to reconcile the pervasive presence of 'noise traders' with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets.

Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melnikov, N.B.; O'Neill, B.C.; Dalton, M.G.

2012-01-01

We describe and evaluate a new method of aggregating heterogeneous households that allows for the representation of changing demographic composition in a multi-sector economic growth model. The method is based on a utility and labor supply calibration that takes into account time variations in demographic characteristics of the population. We test the method using the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model by comparing energy and emissions projections employing the aggregate representation of households to projections representing different household types explicitly. Results show that the difference between the two approaches in terms of total demand for energy and consumption goods is negligible for a wide range of model parameters. Our approach allows the effects of population aging, urbanization, and other forms of compositional change on energy demand and CO 2 emissions to be estimated and compared in a computationally manageable manner using a representative household under assumptions and functional forms that are standard in economic growth models.

The economic efficiency of conservation measures for amphibians in organic farming--results from bio-economic modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuler, Johannes; Sattler, Claudia; Helmecke, Angela; Zander, Peter; Uthes, Sandra; Bachinger, Johann; Stein-Bachinger, Karin

2013-01-15

This paper presents a whole farm bio-economic modelling approach for the assessment and optimisation of amphibian conservation conditions applied at the example of a large scale organic farm in North-Eastern Germany. The assessment focuses mainly on the habitat quality as affected by conservation measures such as through specific adapted crop production activities (CPA) and in-field buffer strips for the European tree frog (Hyla arborea), considering also interrelations with other amphibian species (i.e. common spadefoot toad (Pelobates fuscus), fire-bellied toad (Bombina bombina)). The aim of the approach is to understand, analyse and optimize the relationships between the ecological and economic performance of an organic farming system, based on the expectation that amphibians are differently impacted by different CPAs. The modelling system consists of a set of different sub-models that generate a farm model on the basis of environmentally evaluated CPAs. A crop-rotation sub-model provides a set of agronomically sustainable crop rotations that ensures overall sufficient nitrogen supply and controls weed, pest and disease infestations. An economic sub-model calculates the gross margins for each possible CPA including costs of inputs such as labour and machinery. The conservation effects of the CPAs are assessed with an ecological sub-model evaluates the potential negative or positive effect that each work step of a CPA has on amphibians. A mathematical programming sub-model calculates the optimal farm organization taking into account the limited factors of the farm (e.g. labour, land) as well as ecological improvements. In sequential model runs, the habitat quality is to be improved by the model, while the highest possible gross margin is still to be achieved. The results indicate that the model can be used to show the scope of action that a farmer has to improve habitat quality by reducing damage to amphibian population on its land during agricultural activities

Ecosystem's Modeling of Bhoj Wetland - A Base For Economic Valuation and Sustainable Management

Science.gov (United States)

Verma, M.; Bakshi, N.; Nair, R.

terms of productivity losses and health impacts? How feedback can be taken from these impacts to revise or develop management policies and to seek participation of stakeholders to check wet- land degradation or losses? What type of benefits accrues to people from this wetland? What is the willingness of the people to pay to conserve this important water body? Lake degradation is due to multiple causes hence lakeSs restoration requires multi- ple interventions. To suggest such interventions and above all their prioritizations, an 1 ecosystem model for the lake has been developed following the systemSs dynamics approach. The main objective of the Ecosystem Modeling of the wetland was to under- stand the changes in the hydrology of the wetland first on account of certain changes in the conditions of the surroundings such that valuation process can be followed with current and future scenarios of the lakes hydrology in hand. A sophisticated computer software called as STELLA was used for the modeling exercise. The model used wa- ter quality parameters to show the impact of flow of sewage on dissolved oxygen, bio-chemical oxygen demand, pH, total hardness, total alkalinity, bacterial count and growth of weeds. A base scenario has been created and various simulation runs have been performed for the pre and ongoing restoration activities for next 25 years so as to represent the health of the wetlandSs ecosystem. These scenarios have then been used in the valuation exercise to estimate the conservation value of the lake. Various valuation techniques like contingent valuation, production function approach, hedonic pricing and supply cost have been used to capture the economic values as perceived by different stakeholders. These scenarios and the valuation exercises further throw light on the prioritization of future policy intervention for sustainable management of this urban wetland. Key words: Ecosystem Services, Water Quality Parameters, EcosystemSs Modeling, Economic

An Economic Customer-Oriented Demand Response Model in Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid

2018-01-01

Consumer choice theory is a branch of microeconomics. This theory relates to adjusting consumption expenditures and consumer demand curve. Consumer choice science is trying to realize the buyer's decision-making process. This science studies customer characteristics, such as behavioral criteria......, to understand the consumer’s need. The concept of price elasticity of demand (PED) has also been derived from this theory. In fact, the PED is the percentage of changes in the amount of demand relative to the price changes. In consumer choice theory, for each consumer according to behavioral criteria, a unique...... demand response (DR) models have been developed based on this concept, this will also be deemed as a disadvantage for them. In this paper, we propose an economic DR model based on economic theories and mathematical methods. In addition to abate the defects of price-elasticity based DR models...

Economic modeling using evolutionary algorithms : the effect of binary encoding of strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Waltman, L.R.; Eck, van N.J.; Dekker, Rommert; Kaymak, U.

2011-01-01

We are concerned with evolutionary algorithms that are employed for economic modeling purposes. We focus in particular on evolutionary algorithms that use a binary encoding of strategies. These algorithms, commonly referred to as genetic algorithms, are popular in agent-based computational economics

Sophisticated Approval Voting, Ignorance Priors, and Plurality Heuristics: A Behavioral Social Choice Analysis in a Thurstonian Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Regenwetter, Michel; Ho, Moon-Ho R.; Tsetlin, Ilia

2007-01-01

This project reconciles historically distinct paradigms at the interface between individual and social choice theory, as well as between rational and behavioral decision theory. The authors combine a utility-maximizing prescriptive rule for sophisticated approval voting with the ignorance prior heuristic from behavioral decision research and two…

Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control Strategy for Active Smart Buildings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.

2016-01-01

Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm ...... controller is shown very reliable keeping the comfort levels in the two considered seasons and shifting the load away from peak hours in order to achieve the desired flexible electricity consumption.......Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm...

Economic efficiency versus social equality? The U.S. liberal model versus the European social model.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro, Vicente; Schmitt, John

2005-01-01

This article begins by challenging the widely held view in neoliberal discourse that there is a necessary trade-off between higher efficiency and lower reduction of inequalities: the article empirically shows that the liberal, U.S. model has been less efficient economically (slower economic growth, higher unemployment) than the social model in existence in the European Union and in the majority of its member states. Based on the data presented, the authors criticize the adoption of features of the liberal model (such as deregulation of their labor markets, reduction of public social expenditures) by some European governments. The second section analyzes the causes for the slowdown of economic growth and the increase of unemployment in the European Union--that is, the application of monetarist and neoliberal policies in the institutional frame of the European Union, including the Stability Pact, the objectives and modus operandi of the European Central Bank, and the very limited resources available to the European Commission for stimulating and distributive functions. The third section details the reasons for these developments, including (besides historical considerations) the enormous influence of financial capital in the E.U. institutions and the very limited democracy. Proposals for change are included.

CIM-EARTH: Community integrated model of economic and resource trajectories for humankind.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elliott, J.; Foster, I.; Judd, K.; Moyer, E.; Munson, T.; Univ. of Chicago; Hoover Inst.

2010-01-01

Climate change is a global problem with local climatic and economic impacts. Mitigation policies can be applied on large geographic scales, such as a carbon cap-and-trade program for the entire U.S., on medium geographic scales, such as the NOx program for the northeastern U.S., or on smaller scales, such as statewide renewable portfolio standards and local gasoline taxes. To enable study of the environmental benefits, transition costs, capitalization effects, and other consequences of mitigation policies, we are developing dynamic general equilibrium models capable of incorporating important climate impacts. This report describes the economic framework we have developed and the current Community Integrated Model of Economic and Resource Trajectories for Humankind (CIM-EARTH) instance.

Sophisticated approval voting, ignorance priors, and plurality heuristics: a behavioral social choice analysis in a Thurstonian framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Regenwetter, Michel; Ho, Moon-Ho R; Tsetlin, Ilia

2007-10-01

This project reconciles historically distinct paradigms at the interface between individual and social choice theory, as well as between rational and behavioral decision theory. The authors combine a utility-maximizing prescriptive rule for sophisticated approval voting with the ignorance prior heuristic from behavioral decision research and two types of plurality heuristics to model approval voting behavior. When using a sincere plurality heuristic, voters simplify their decision process by voting for their single favorite candidate. When using a strategic plurality heuristic, voters strategically focus their attention on the 2 front-runners and vote for their preferred candidate among these 2. Using a hierarchy of Thurstonian random utility models, the authors implemented these different decision rules and tested them statistically on 7 real world approval voting elections. They cross-validated their key findings via a psychological Internet experiment. Although a substantial number of voters used the plurality heuristic in the real elections, they did so sincerely, not strategically. Moreover, even though Thurstonian models do not force such agreement, the results show, in contrast to common wisdom about social choice rules, that the sincere social orders by Condorcet, Borda, plurality, and approval voting are identical in all 7 elections and in the Internet experiment. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

HOMER Economic Models - US Navy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bush, Jason William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Myers, Kurt Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-02-01

This LETTER REPORT has been prepared by Idaho National Laboratory for US Navy NAVFAC EXWC to support in testing pre-commercial SIREN (Simulated Integration of Renewable Energy Networks) computer software models. In the logistics mode SIREN software simulates the combination of renewable power sources (solar arrays, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) in supplying an electrical demand. NAVFAC EXWC will create SIREN software logistics models of existing or planned renewable energy projects at five Navy locations (San Nicolas Island, AUTEC, New London, & China Lake), and INL will deliver additional HOMER computer models for comparative analysis. In the transient mode SIREN simulates the short time-scale variation of electrical parameters when a power outage or other destabilizing event occurs. In the HOMER model, a variety of inputs are entered such as location coordinates, Generators, PV arrays, Wind Turbines, Batteries, Converters, Grid costs/usage, Solar resources, Wind resources, Temperatures, Fuels, and Electric Loads. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms then evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of these technology options and account for variations in technology costs, electric load, and energy resource availability. The Navy can then use HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity results to compare to those of the SIREN model. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) possesses unique expertise and experience in the software, hardware, and systems design for the integration of renewable energy into the electrical grid. NAVFAC EXWC will draw upon this expertise to complete mission requirements.

THE INSTANTANEOUS SPEED OF ADJUSTMENT ASSUMPTION AND STABILITY OF ECONOMIC-MODELS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

SCHOONBEEK, L

In order to simplify stability analysis of an economic model one can assume that one of the model variables moves infinitely fast towards equilibrium, given the values of the other slower variables. We present conditions such that stability of the simplified model implies, or is implied by,

Measurement of the Economic Growth and Add-on of the R.M. Solow Adjusted Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Gh. Rosca

2007-08-01

Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth.The paper aim is the economic growth measurement and add-on of the R.M. Solow adjusted model.

Toward linking demographic and economic models for impact assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, C.A.; Meenan, C.D.

1991-01-01

One of the objectives of the Yucca Mountain Project, in Southern Nevada, is to evaluate the effects of the development of a high-level nuclear waste repository. As described in the Section 175 Report to the Congress of the US, the temporal scope of this repository project encompasses approximately 70 years and includes four phases: Site characterization and licensing, construction, operation, and closure and decommissioning. If retrieval of the waste were to be required, the temporal scope of the repository project could be extended to approximately 100 years. The study of the potential socioeconomic effects of this project is the foundation for this paper. This paper focuses on the economic and demographic aspects and a possible method to interface the two. First, the authors briefly discuss general socioeconomic modeling theory from a county level view point, as well as methods for the apportionment of county level data to sub-county areas. Next, the authors describe the unique economic and demographic conditions which exist in Nevada at both the state and county levels. Finally, the authors evaluate a possible procedure for analyzing repository effects at a sub-county level; this involves discussion of an interface linking the economic and demographic aspects, which is based on the reconciliation of supply and demand for labor. The authors conclude that the basis for further model development may rely on the interaction of supply and demand to produce change in wage rates. These changes in expected wages should be a justification for allocating economic migrants (who may respond to Yucca Mountain Project development) into various communities

Economic dynamics with financial fragility and mean-field interaction: A model

Science.gov (United States)

Di Guilmi, C.; Gallegati, M.; Landini, S.

2008-06-01

Following Aoki’s statistical mechanics methodology [Masanao Aoki, New Approaches to Macroeconomic Modeling, Cambridge University Press, 1996; Masanao Aoki, Modeling Aggregate Behaviour and Fluctuations in Economics, Cambridge University Press, 2002; Masanao Aoki, and Hiroshi Yoshikawa, Reconstructing Macroeconomics, Cambridge University Press, 2006], we provide some insights into the well-known works of [Bruce Greenwald, Joseph Stiglitz, Macroeconomic models with equity and credit rationing, in: R. Hubbard (Ed.), Information, Capital Markets and Investment, Chicago University Press, Chicago, 1990; Bruce Greenwald, Joseph Stiglitz, Financial markets imperfections and business cycles, Quarterly journal of Economics (1993)]. Specifically, we reach analytically a closed form solution of their models overcoming the aggregation problem. The key idea is to represent the economy as an evolving complex system, composed by heterogeneous interacting agents, that can be partitioned into a space of macroscopic states. This meso level of aggregation permits to adopt mean-field interaction modeling and master equation techniques.

The economic-engineering of smart-meter-enabled dynamic water pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Rougé, Charles; Harou, Julien

2016-04-01

The introduction of smart metering is set to revolutionize in many ways how water utilities conduct their business and interact with customers. Among those is the possibility of changing water prices during the day or seasonally. This work presents the engineering and economic implications of dynamic pricing implemented at two distinct timescales, 1) a seasonal scarcity tariff aimed at reducing consumption during drier period or droughts, and 2) time-of-day tariffs aimed at reducing peak-hour water use. Sophisticated dynamic pricing schemes are hard to understand for many users, and this reduces their social acceptability because it gives the impression that they help the water utility charge more for water. Therefore, we focus on simple pricing mechanisms, and estimating their short- and long-term benefits for communication with regulators and consumers. Seasonal scarcity tariffs are designed by adjusting prices such that the increased expenditure is commensurate with economic gains in other uses such as the environment and recreation. These tariffs could promote efficient use of limited supplies during relatively dry periods. In the long term, consistently reducing water consumption when it is scarce delays the need to invest in new sources of supply meant only for dry periods (e.g. desalination) which can bring down supply costs in the long-term. Reducing peak-hour use through time-of-day tariffs in the short run decreases peak-hour energy consumption and delays maintenance by reducing the likelihood of pipe burst. In the long run it delays capacity expansion of the distribution network. We develop and demonstrate a simple economic model of water supply to a generic city to demonstrate these concepts. This simple model is applied to London's water supply to better understand the scale of potential price changes and savings given London's environmental flow demands.

An Economic Model of Workplace Mobbing in Academe

Science.gov (United States)

Faria, Joao Ricardo; Mixon, Franklin G., Jr.; Salter, Sean P.

2012-01-01

Workplace bullying or mobbing can be defined as the infliction of various forms of abuse (e.g., verbal, emotional, psychological) against a colleague or subordinate by one or more other members of a workplace. Even in the presence of academic tenure, workplace mobbing remains a prevalent issue in academe. This study develops an economic model that…

Forecasting performance of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007-2009

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

In this work we consider forecasting macroeconomic variables during an economic crisis. The focus is on a speci…c class of models, the so-called single hidden-layer feedforward autoregressive neural network models. What makes these models interesting in the present context is that they form a cla...... during the economic crisis 2007–2009. Forecast accuracy is measured by the root mean square forecast error. Hypothesis testing is also used to compare the performance of the different techniques with each other....

Ecosystem-based fishery management: a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Thanh Viet

  An ecosystem approach means different things to different people. As a result the concept of ecosystem-based fishery management is evolving and it has no universal definition or consistent application. As regards ecosystem modeling, most economic models of fishery ignore the linkages to lower...... trophic levels. In particular, environmental data and other bottom-up information is widely disregarded. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models relating to ecosystem-based fishery management....

Economic modeling of fault tolerant flight control systems in commercial applications

Science.gov (United States)

Finelli, G. B.

1982-01-01

This paper describes the current development of a comprehensive model which will supply the assessment and analysis capability to investigate the economic viability of Fault Tolerant Flight Control Systems (FTFCS) for commercial aircraft of the 1990's and beyond. An introduction to the unique attributes of fault tolerance and how they will influence aircraft operations and consequent airline costs and benefits is presented. Specific modeling issues and elements necessary for accurate assessment of all costs affected by ownership and operation of FTFCS are delineated. Trade-off factors are presented, aimed at exposing economically optimal realizations of system implementations, resource allocation, and operating policies. A trade-off example is furnished to graphically display some of the analysis capabilities of the comprehensive simulation model now being developed.

The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

Application of PIP data in health economic models for market access

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Nadine van Dongen

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Nadine van Dongen1, Mark JC Nuijten21Van Dongen Research Ltd, London, UK; 2Ars Accessus Medica, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsAbstract: Cost-effectiveness data from a state of the art health economic analysis should permit reliable, reproducible, and verifiable insights into the effectiveness of a drug and the possible savings that might be achieved relative to other drugs and/or treatments. The data for a model may come from a variety of sources and are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. The reliability of the estimates depends on the choice of the data sources. Data sources for the variables being used in a model may be clinical trials, databases, medical records, and Delphi panels. A limitation of these data sources is that they often lack the input from the patient’s perspective. Patient Intelligence applications can provide data to be used in health economic models for any given situation regarding treatment of persons suffering from a disorder, disease, or complaint. The objective of this paper to explore the opportunity of integrating patient data generated by Patient Intelligence applications as an alternative data source for a Delphi panel and databases in health economic models.Keywords: effectiveness, Patient Intelligence, data source, Delphi panel

Development of a Conceptual Model of Disease Progression for Use in Economic Modeling of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Tabberer, Maggie; Gonzalez-McQuire, Sebastian; Muellerova, Hana; Briggs, Andrew H; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H; Chambers, Mike; Lomas, David A

2017-05-01

To develop and validate a new conceptual model (CM) of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for use in disease progression and economic modeling. The CM identifies and describes qualitative associations between disease attributes, progression and outcomes. A literature review was performed to identify any published CMs or literature reporting the impact and association of COPD disease attributes with outcomes. After critical analysis of the literature, a Steering Group of experts from the disciplines of health economics, epidemiology and clinical medicine was convened to develop a draft CM, which was refined using a Delphi process. The refined CM was validated by testing for associations between attributes using data from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE). Disease progression attributes included in the final CM were history and occurrence of exacerbations, lung function, exercise capacity, signs and symptoms (cough, sputum, dyspnea), cardiovascular disease comorbidities, 'other' comorbidities (including depression), body composition (body mass index), fibrinogen as a biomarker, smoking and demographic characteristics (age, gender). Mortality and health-related quality of life were determined to be the most relevant final outcome measures for this model, intended to be the foundation of an economic model of COPD. The CM is being used as the foundation for developing a new COPD model of disease progression and to provide a framework for the analysis of patient-level data. The CM is available as a reference for the implementation of further disease progression and economic models.

Including adverse drug events in economic evaluations of anti-tumour necrosis factor-α drugs for adult rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review of economic decision analytic models.

Science.gov (United States)

Heather, Eleanor M; Payne, Katherine; Harrison, Mark; Symmons, Deborah P M

2014-02-01

Anti-tumour necrosis factor-α drugs (anti-TNFs) have revolutionised the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). More effective than standard non-biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (nbDMARDs), anti-TNFs are also substantially more expensive. Consequently, a number of model-based economic evaluations have been conducted to establish the relative cost-effectiveness of anti-TNFs. However, anti-TNFs are associated with an increased risk of adverse drug events (ADEs) such as serious infections relative to nbDMARDs. Such ADEs will likely impact on both the costs and consequences of anti-TNFs, for example, through hospitalisations and forced withdrawal from treatment. The aim of this review was to identify and critically appraise if, and how, ADEs have been incorporated into model-based cost-effectiveness analyses of anti-TNFs for adult patients with RA. A systematic literature review was performed. Electronic databases (Ovid MEDLINE; Ovid EMBASE; Web of Science; NHS Economic Evaluations Database) were searched for literature published between January 1990 and October 2013 using electronic search strategies. The reference lists of retrieved studies were also hand searched. In addition, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence technology appraisals were searched to identify economic models used to inform UK healthcare decision making. Only full economic evaluations that had used an economic model to evaluate biological DMARDs (bDMARDs) (including anti-TNFs) for adult patients with RA and had incorporated the direct costs and/or consequences of ADEs were critically appraised. To be included, studies also had to be available as a full text in English. Data extracted included general study characteristics and information concerning the methods used to incorporate ADEs and any associated assumptions made. The extracted data were synthesised using a tabular and narrative format. A total of 43 model-based economic evaluations of bDMARDs for adult RA

Prediction of Combine Economic Life Based on Repair and Maintenance Costs Model

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A Rohani

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Farm machinery managers often need to make complex economic decisions on machinery replacement. Repair and maintenance costs can have significant impacts on this economic decision. The farm manager must be able to predict farm machinery repair and maintenance costs. This study aimed to identify a regression model that can adequately represent the repair and maintenance costs in terms of machine age in cumulative hours of use. The regression model has the ability to predict the repair and maintenance costs for longer time periods. Therefore, it can be used for the estimation of the economic life. The study was conducted using field data collected from 11 John-Deer 955 combine harvesters used in several western provinces of Iran. It was found that power model has a better performance for the prediction of combine repair and maintenance costs. The results showed that the optimum replacement age of John-Deer 955 combine was 54300 cumulative hours.

A Discrete Heterogeneous-Group Economic Growth Model with Endogenous Leisure Time

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Wei-Bin Zhang

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a one-sector multigroup growth model with endogenous labor supply in discrete time. Proposing an alternative approach to behavior of households, we examine the dynamics of wealth and income distribution in a competitive economy with capital accumulation as the main engine of economic growth. We show how human capital levels, preferences, and labor force of heterogeneous households determine the national economic growth, wealth, and income distribution and time allocation of the groups. By simulation we demonstrate, for instance, that in the three-group economy when the rich group's human capital is improved, all the groups will economically benefit, and the leisure times of all the groups are reduced but when any other group's human capital is improved, the group will economically benefit, the other two groups economically lose, and the leisure times of all the groups are increased.

Modelling Hydrology and Erosion in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment

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Kirkby, M. J.; van Delden, H.; Hahn, B. M.; Irvine, B. J.

2009-12-01

Although forecasting systems have a limited time horizon due to the impact of unforeseen events, a rationally based model is able to provide some insights into likely short term behaviour, taking account of the dynamic interactions between climate, physical processes and land use decisions. The biophysical model (PESERA) takes land use decisions as inputs, together with climatic data or scenarios, topography and soils, to generate estimates of runoff, soil erosion, crop or natural vegetation growth and physical suitability, primarily based on crop yields. Estimates are made at a spatial resolution of 100 - 1000 m according to the area involved, the former for a catchment of say 1000 km2, the latter for a continental region. The generic dynamic land-use (change) model (METRONAMICA) has been fully integrated with PESERA to create the ‘Integrated Assessment Model’ (IAM) within the DESURVEY European project. The IAM takes biophysical performance and other spatial characteristics as an input and combines them with socio-economic data to determine potential suitability for each possible residential, commercial, agricultural etc use. The model then allocates each land use type and detailed agricultural class to the locations with the highest potential, based on neighbouring and historic choices as well as short-term economic advantage to estimate probabilities of change to alternative uses. Suitability, accessibility and zoning regulations are included in the decision process to provide the locational characteristics. Change of land use over time is thus determined within a cellular automaton model that generates rational spatial patterns of land use choice. The IAM is being applied at country scale in southern Europe and to smaller regions in North Africa. Although, in the long term, climate change is likely to dominate physical and economic impacts, in the shorter term over which this type of model can most reliably be used, the significance of land use change is

The model of sustainable socio-economic development of the national economy

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O. A. Kalchenko

2016-01-01

Full Text Available According to the new "National security strategy of the Russian Federation, sustainable socio-economic development is the basis of national economic security. UN conceptual model of sustainable development is considered. The “Club of Rome” founder’s Aurelio Peccei point of view that world could be presented by interrelated but sufficiently stable elements: Nature, Man, Society, science-based Technique is mentioned (early 1980s. Today, sustainable socio-economic development of the national economy is determined by: Nature, Man, Society, Technology, Economy and Infrastructure. To support this opinion, statements of leading scientists, politicians, business representatives are given: A. Aganbegian, M. Friedman, V. Sidorov, V. Inozemtsev, G. Gref. The author's model of sustainable socio-economic development of the national economy is presented. The position of Russia according to the “2016 Global R&D Funding Forecast”, compiled by well-known scientific periodical “R&DMagazine” is presented. Classification of indicators groups, taken from the Russian and foreign statistical data books (Russian Statistical Yearbook, IRI, R&D Magazine, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, CIA Factbook, OECD, according to the elements of an integrated system of sustainable socio-economic development of the national economy is given. Implementation aggregating partial indices into an integrated index for each group and their population as a whole is proposed. For each private indicator is proposed to develop three levels of threshold values (acceptable, marginal and critical for sustainable socio-economic development of the national economy and security. Since innovation is a key mechanism for the concept of sustainable socio-economic development of the national economy in a new tenor of technology, the need for innovative development of all elements of the proposed integrated system is required.

Modeling the economic costs of disasters and recovery: analysis using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

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Xie, W.; Li, N.; Wu, J.-D.; Hao, X.-L.

2014-04-01

Disaster damages have negative effects on the economy, whereas reconstruction investment has positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving the positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and furthermore avoid the double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks into the CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on the supply side of the economy; a portion of investments restores the capital stock in an existing period; an investment-driven dynamic model is formulated according to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable to balance the fixed investment. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction, respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. Economic loss under S2 is roughly 1.5 times that under S1. The gap in the economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% at the end of government-led reconstruction activity, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

A model to determine the economic viability of water fluoridation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kroon, Jeroen; van Wyk, Philippus Johannes

2012-01-01

In view of concerns expressed by South African local authorities the aim of this study was to develop a model to determine whether water fluoridation is economically viable to reduce dental caries in South Africa. Microsoft Excel software was used to develop a model to determine economic viability of water fluoridation for 17 water providers from all nine South African provinces. Input variables for this model relate to chemical cost, labor cost, maintenance cost of infrastructure, opportunity cost, and capital depreciation. The following output variables were calculated to evaluate the cost of water fluoridation: per capita cost per year, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit. In this model it is assumed that the introduction of community water fluoridation can reduce caries prevalence by an additional 15 percent and that the savings in cost of treatment will be equal to the average fee for a two surface restoration. Water providers included in the study serve 53.5 percent of the total population of South Africa. For all providers combined chemical cost contributes 64.5 percent to the total cost, per capita cost per year was $0.36, cost-effectiveness was calculated as $11.41 and cost-benefit of the implementation of water fluoridation was 0.34. This model confirmed that water fluoridation is an economically viable option to prevent dental caries in South African communities, as well as conclusions over the last 10 years that water fluoridation leads to significant cost savings and remains a cost-effective measure for reducing dental caries, even when the caries-preventive effectiveness is modest. © 2012 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

CONSTRUCTION OF AGGREGATE NATIONAL ECONOMIC MODEL WITH DETAILED REPRESENTATION OF THE FOREST COMPLEX

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Blam Yu. Sh.

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Autonomy of the industrial forecasts often exacerbated by the lack of direct connection with the economic forecasts on the macro level. On the other hand it is desirable to simulate the industrial strategy in a fairly high degree of isolation, so that it does not depend at every moment on description of other activities or levels of hierarchy. To study the effects of national economic relations on the development of industrial complex we propose to use a spatial model of the national economy, which describes modalities of the researched industries in more detail. Quantitative parameters, obtained using basic Interregional Cross-sectoral Optimization Model (OMMM against the external development of the industrial complex, are used to form an aggregated model with a detailed representation with unsignificant loss of information. Thus, the above described model is intended to harmonize national economic decisions with forecasts obtained from industry models in real terms. The conversion procedure is based on the properties of the model of «mutual» problems and information from basic OMMM. The final result is a production-transport cost model within a «traditional» industrial structure.

Purification through Emotions: The Role of Shame in Plato's "Sophist" 230B4-E5

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Candiotto, Laura

2018-01-01

This article proposes an analysis of Plato's "Sophist" (230b4--e5) that underlines the bond between the logical and the emotional components of the Socratic "elenchus", with the aim of depicting the social valence of this philosophical practice. The use of emotions characterizing the 'elenctic' method described by Plato is…

Modeling hard clinical end-point data in economic analyses.

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Kansal, Anuraag R; Zheng, Ying; Palencia, Roberto; Ruffolo, Antonio; Hass, Bastian; Sorensen, Sonja V

2013-11-01

The availability of hard clinical end-point data, such as that on cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is increasing, and as a result there is growing interest in using hard end-point data of this type in economic analyses. This study investigated published approaches for modeling hard end-points from clinical trials and evaluated their applicability in health economic models with different disease features. A review of cost-effectiveness models of interventions in clinically significant therapeutic areas (CV diseases, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases) was conducted in PubMed and Embase using a defined search strategy. Only studies integrating hard end-point data from randomized clinical trials were considered. For each study included, clinical input characteristics and modeling approach were summarized and evaluated. A total of 33 articles (23 CV, eight cancer, two respiratory) were accepted for detailed analysis. Decision trees, Markov models, discrete event simulations, and hybrids were used. Event rates were incorporated either as constant rates, time-dependent risks, or risk equations based on patient characteristics. Risks dependent on time and/or patient characteristics were used where major event rates were >1%/year in models with fewer health states (Models of infrequent events or with numerous health states generally preferred constant event rates. The detailed modeling information and terminology varied, sometimes requiring interpretation. Key considerations for cost-effectiveness models incorporating hard end-point data include the frequency and characteristics of the relevant clinical events and how the trial data is reported. When event risk is low, simplification of both the model structure and event rate modeling is recommended. When event risk is common, such as in high risk populations, more detailed modeling approaches, including individual simulations or explicitly time-dependent event rates, are

Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.

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Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo

2013-10-01

Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

How does economic theory explain the Hubbert peak oil model?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynes, F.; Okullo, S.; Hofkes, M.

2010-01-01

The aim of this paper is to provide an economic foundation for bell shaped oil extraction trajectories, consistent with Hubbert's peak oil model. There are several reasons why it is important to get insight into the economic foundations of peak oil. As production decisions are expected to depend on economic factors, a better comprehension of the economic foundations of oil extraction behaviour is fundamental to predict production and price over the coming years. The investigation made in this paper helps us to get a better understanding of the different mechanisms that may be at work in the case of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. We show that profitability is the main driver behind production plans. Changes in profitability due to divergent trajectories between costs and oil price may give rise to a Hubbert production curve. For this result we do not need to introduce a demand or an exploration effect as is generally assumed in the literature.

Economic Dispatch for Microgrid Containing Electric Vehicles via Probabilistic Modeling: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yao, Yin; Gao, Wenzhong; Momoh, James; Muljadi, Eduard

2016-02-11

In this paper, an economic dispatch model with probabilistic modeling is developed for a microgrid. The electric power supply in a microgrid consists of conventional power plants and renewable energy power plants, such as wind and solar power plants. Because of the fluctuation in the output of solar and wind power plants, an empirical probabilistic model is developed to predict their hourly output. According to different characteristics of wind and solar power plants, the parameters for probabilistic distribution are further adjusted individually for both. On the other hand, with the growing trend in plug-in electric vehicles (PHEVs), an integrated microgrid system must also consider the impact of PHEVs. The charging loads from PHEVs as well as the discharging output via the vehicle-to-grid (V2G) method can greatly affect the economic dispatch for all of the micro energy sources in a microgrid. This paper presents an optimization method for economic dispatch in a microgrid considering conventional power plants, renewable power plants, and PHEVs. The simulation results reveal that PHEVs with V2G capability can be an indispensable supplement in a modern microgrid.

Triple Helix Model as an Efficient Mechanism of Food Security Provision in Regional Economic Entities and the Economic System as a Whole

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Mihail N. Dudin

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The leading countries of the world consider food security the important condition of internal political and social-economic stability of the state and its external independence. The topic of the article is crucial due to the fact that the problem of food security is rather complicated and multilevel and should be considered at different interrelated hierarchical levels. In this context the efficient model of food security is the result of the permanent dialogue between the representatives of the state government, business entities, social organizations and scientific institutions. The article justifies the fact that the model of innovation development, known as ‘the triple helix model’ should be applied at the modern stage of economic development as an efficient tool for the food security provision, which can be implemented in the activity of regional economic entities and the whole economic system of the Russian Federation.

R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

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Ion Gh. Rosca

2007-05-01

The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

Generalized DSS shell for developing simulation and optimization hydro-economic models of complex water resources systems

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Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Harou, Julien J.; Andreu, Joaquin

2013-04-01

Hydrologic-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure management at the river basin scale. These models simultaneously analyze engineering, hydrology and economic aspects of water resources management. Two new tools have been designed to develop models within this approach: a simulation tool (SIM_GAMS), for models in which water is allocated each month based on supply priorities to competing uses and system operating rules, and an optimization tool (OPT_GAMS), in which water resources are allocated optimally following economic criteria. The characterization of the water resource network system requires a connectivity matrix representing the topology of the elements, generated using HydroPlatform. HydroPlatform, an open-source software platform for network (node-link) models, allows to store, display and export all information needed to characterize the system. Two generic non-linear models have been programmed in GAMS to use the inputs from HydroPlatform in simulation and optimization models. The simulation model allocates water resources on a monthly basis, according to different targets (demands, storage, environmental flows, hydropower production, etc.), priorities and other system operating rules (such as reservoir operating rules). The optimization model's objective function is designed so that the system meets operational targets (ranked according to priorities) each month while following system operating rules. This function is analogous to the one used in the simulation module of the DSS AQUATOOL. Each element of the system has its own contribution to the objective function through unit cost coefficients that preserve the relative priority rank and the system operating rules. The model incorporates groundwater and stream-aquifer interaction (allowing conjunctive use simulation) with a wide range of modeling options, from lumped and analytical approaches to parameter-distributed models (eigenvalue approach). Such

An Economic Model and Experiments to Understand Aluminum-Cerium Alloy Recycling

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Ananth V.; Lim, Heejong; Rios, Orlando; Sims, Zachary; Weiss, David

2018-04-01

We provide an economic model to understand the impact of adoption, sorting and pricing of scrap on the recycling of a new aluminum-cerium (AlCe) alloy for use in engine blocks in the automobile industry. The goal of the laboratory portion of this study is to investigate possible effects of cerium contamination on well-established aluminum recycling streams. Our methodology includes three components: (1) focused data gathering from industry supply chain participants, (2) experimental data through laboratory experiments to understand the impact of cerium on existing alloys and (3) an economic model to understand pricing incentives on a recycler's separation of AlCe engine blocks.

A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous

OpenAIRE

Bhatt, Vipul; Ogaki, Masao; Yaguchi, Yuichi

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

Economic Growth Models Transition

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Coralia Angelescu

2006-03-01

Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

Economic Growth Models Transition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Coralia Angelescu

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

On the need and use of models to explore the role of economic confidence:a survey.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sprigg, James A.; Paez, Paul J. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Hand, Michael S. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM)

2005-04-01

Empirical studies suggest that consumption is more sensitive to current income than suggested under the permanent income hypothesis, which raises questions regarding expectations for future income, risk aversion, and the role of economic confidence measures. This report surveys a body of fundamental economic literature as well as burgeoning computational modeling methods to support efforts to better anticipate cascading economic responses to terrorist threats and attacks. This is a three part survey to support the incorporation of models of economic confidence into agent-based microeconomic simulations. We first review broad underlying economic principles related to this topic. We then review the economic principle of confidence and related empirical studies. Finally, we provide a brief survey of efforts and publications related to agent-based economic simulation.

Mathematical-statistical models and qualitative theories for economic and social sciences

CERN Document Server

Maturo, Fabrizio; Kacprzyk, Janusz

2017-01-01

This book presents a broad spectrum of problems related to statistics, mathematics, teaching, social science, and economics as well as a range of tools and techniques that can be used to solve these problems. It is the result of a scientific collaboration between experts in the field of economic and social systems from the University of Defence in Brno (Czech Republic), G. d’Annunzio University of Chieti-Pescara (Italy), Pablo de Olavid eUniversity of Sevilla (Spain), and Ovidius University in Constanţa, (Romania). The studies included were selected using a peer-review process and reflect heterogeneity and complexity of economic and social phenomena. They and present interesting empirical research from around the globe and from several research fields, such as statistics, decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. The volume is divided into two parts. The first part, “Recent trends in mathematical and statistical models for economic and social sciences”, collects pap...

Finding Resolution for the Responsible Transparency of Economic Models in Health and Medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Padula, William V; McQueen, Robert Brett; Pronovost, Peter J

2017-11-01

The Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine recommendations for conduct, methodological practices, and reporting of cost-effectiveness analyses has a number of questions unanswered with respect to the implementation of transparent, open source code interface for economic models. The possibility of making economic model source code could be positive and progressive for the field; however, several unintended consequences of this system should be first considered before complete implementation of this model. First, there is the concern regarding intellectual property rights that modelers have to their analyses. Second, the open source code could make analyses more accessible to inexperienced modelers, leading to inaccurate or misinterpreted results. We propose several resolutions to these concerns. The field should establish a licensing system of open source code such that the model originators maintain control of the code use and grant permissions to other investigators who wish to use it. The field should also be more forthcoming towards the teaching of cost-effectiveness analysis in medical and health services education so that providers and other professionals are familiar with economic modeling and able to conduct analyses with open source code. These types of unintended consequences need to be fully considered before the field's preparedness to move forward into an era of model transparency with open source code.

ADVISHE: A new tool to report validation of health-economic decision models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vemer, P.; Corro Ramos, I.; Van Voorn, G.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.L.

2014-01-01

Background: Modelers and reimbursement decision makers could both profit from a more systematic reporting of the efforts to validate health-economic (HE) models. Objectives: Development of a tool to systematically report validation efforts of HE decision models and their outcomes. Methods: A gross

Sustainable economic production quantity models for inventory systems with shortage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Taleizadeh, Ata Allah; Soleymanfar, Vahid Reza; Govindan, Kannan

2018-01-01

optimal values of inventory system variables, we solve four independent profit maximization problems for four different situations. These proposed models include a basic model in which shortages are not allowed, and when shortages are allowed, the lost sale, full backordering and partial backordering...... (EPQ). The theoretical sustainable EOQ and EPQ models are basic models that ignore many real-life conditions such as the possibility of stock-out in inventory systems. In this paper, we develop four new sustainable economic production quantity models that consider different shortage situations. To find...

Links between fluid mechanics and quantum mechanics: a model for information in economics?

Science.gov (United States)

Haven, Emmanuel

2016-05-28

This paper tallies the links between fluid mechanics and quantum mechanics, and attempts to show whether those links can aid in beginning to build a formal template which is usable in economics models where time is (a)symmetric and memory is absent or present. An objective of this paper is to contemplate whether those formalisms can allow us to model information in economics in a novel way. © 2016 The Author(s).

>From naive to sophisticated behavior in multiagents-based financial market models

Science.gov (United States)

Mansilla, R.

2000-09-01

The behavior of physical complexity and mutual information function of the outcome of a model of heterogeneous, inductive rational agents inspired by the El Farol Bar problem and the Minority Game is studied. The first magnitude is a measure rooted in the Kolmogorov-Chaitin theory and the second a measure related to Shannon's information entropy. Extensive computer simulations were done, as a result of which, is proposed an ansatz for physical complexity of the type C(l)=lα and the dependence of the exponent α from the parameters of the model is established. The accuracy of our results and the relationship with the behavior of mutual information function as a measure of time correlation of agents choice are discussed.

Privatization: The Use of Risk, Economic and Finance Models to Ensure Its Success

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaksch, John A.; Weimar, Mark R.; Young, Joan K.; Taylor, William J.; Furlong, Peter T.; Feldman, Roger D.; Diprinzio, Ray

2001-01-01

The article describes the use of risk, economic and financial models as they were used to help DOE in their decision-making processes on TWRS Privatization. The article describes how the models were used to allocate risk between the contractor and DOE, evaluate whether DOE should accept certain risk allocations, how the economic and financial models were used to evaluate whether the government was receiving the best bid price and whether any money was being saved by using privatization, and evaluated alternative financing schemes. The paper also describes how the financial model was used to evaluate and negotiate the pricing structure which became a part of the contract.

Gender Discrimination, Education and Economic Growth in a Generalized Uzawa-Lucas Two-Sector Model

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Zhang Wei-Bin

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This paper is mainly concerned with relationships between economic growth and gender discrimination in labor markets and education. Although discrimination in different fields has well been addresses and modelled in the economic literature, there are only a few growth models with endogenous wealth and human capital accumulation, gender time distribution between work, leisure and education under gender (positive or negative discrimination. The production and economic structures, human capital accumulation are based on the Uzawa-Lucas model, while the utility function and gender division of labor, leisure time and study time are based on the model by Zhang. The model takes account of learning by education in modeling human capital accumulation. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of equilibrium points and motion of the national economy. We also conduct a comparative dynamic analysis in regard to changes in discrimination in the education sector, women’s propensity to stay at home, women’s propensity to receive education, women’s knowledge utilization efficiency, and the propensity to save.

Integrated Ecological-Economic Modeling of Regions with the use of GIS Technologies

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G.N. Bulatova

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The paper shows the process of modeling the integrated map “Scheme of the ecological and economic regionalization of the territory of the Russian Federation on the basis of the mineral and raw materials base of natural adsorbents” using GIS technologies. The map is based on three main groups of indicators: natural, economic and environmental. The ecological content of the map is characterized by indicators that are potential or actual sources of pollutant release into the environment (nuclear power plants, nuclear reactors, radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, nuclear test sites, industrial enterprises, railways, operating and under construction oil pipelines, hydrocarbon fields, etc.. The economic component of the map is the reserves estimated by the indicators of study and development, the relationship to the subsoil fund and forecast resources. The natural group of indicators is represented by the mineral and raw material base of natural adsorbents (fields and objects of forecast resources that can be used to prevent harmful emissions and for the ecological and economic rehabilitation of contaminated areas. Based on the analysis of cartographic data, the ecological and economic areas of the territorial distribution of man-caused environmental impacts and the presence of adsorption raw materials are identified. As an example, a description is given of the ecological and economic model of the regionalization of the Privolzhsky Federal District using the GIS “Mineral resource base of natural adsorbents of Russia” developed at the Federal State Unitary Enterprise TsNIIgeolnerud.

Computer programs for capital cost estimation, lifetime economic performance simulation, and computation of cost indexes for laser fusion and other advanced technology facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pendergrass, J.H.

1978-01-01

Three FORTRAN programs, CAPITAL, VENTURE, and INDEXER, have been developed to automate computations used in assessing the economic viability of proposed or conceptual laser fusion and other advanced-technology facilities, as well as conventional projects. The types of calculations performed by these programs are, respectively, capital cost estimation, lifetime economic performance simulation, and computation of cost indexes. The codes permit these three topics to be addressed with considerable sophistication commensurate with user requirements and available data

Forecasting performances of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007-2009

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

2014-01-01

. The performances of these three model selectors are compared by looking at the accuracy of the forecasts of the estimated neural network models. We apply the neural network model and the three modelling techniques to monthly industrial production and unemployment series from the G7 countries and the four......In this work we consider the forecasting of macroeconomic variables during an economic crisis. The focus is on a specific class of models, the so-called single hidden-layer feed-forward autoregressive neural network models. What makes these models interesting in the present context is the fact...... that they form a class of universal approximators and may be expected to work well during exceptional periods such as major economic crises. Neural network models are often difficult to estimate, and we follow the idea of White (2006) of transforming the specification and nonlinear estimation problem...

Effective management models and methods of economic educations in regional industrial complexes

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Andrey Gennadyevich Butrin

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In the article, the methodical bases of management by the integrated industrial enterprises is developed according to the indicators of sustainable economic development of the region. The scope of the research is the region as the difficult mesosystem consisting of logistic clusters. The subject matter of the research is the organizational and economic relations developing in the course of interaction of participants of the regional economy as mesosystems. The models and methods of management by the large economic systems in the economy of the industrially developed region are developed; the organizational and economic essence of a logistic cluster as the subject of the regional economy us revealed. The mechanism of management by the integrated enterprises with using the cluster approach, technologies of logistics, management of supply chains is offered. They allow to the management of an enterprises to make scientifically reasonable effective decisions developing programs of supply, economic production and realization of finished goods in the close connection with programs of regional economic development.

Economic model predictive control theory, formulations and chemical process applications

CERN Document Server

Ellis, Matthew; Christofides, Panagiotis D

2017-01-01

This book presents general methods for the design of economic model predictive control (EMPC) systems for broad classes of nonlinear systems that address key theoretical and practical considerations including recursive feasibility, closed-loop stability, closed-loop performance, and computational efficiency. Specifically, the book proposes: Lyapunov-based EMPC methods for nonlinear systems; two-tier EMPC architectures that are highly computationally efficient; and EMPC schemes handling explicitly uncertainty, time-varying cost functions, time-delays and multiple-time-scale dynamics. The proposed methods employ a variety of tools ranging from nonlinear systems analysis, through Lyapunov-based control techniques to nonlinear dynamic optimization. The applicability and performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through a number of chemical process examples. The book presents state-of-the-art methods for the design of economic model predictive control systems for chemical processes. In addition to being...

Modeling companion diagnostics in economic evaluations of targeted oncology therapies: systematic review and methodological checklist.

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Doble, Brett; Tan, Marcus; Harris, Anthony; Lorgelly, Paula

2015-02-01

The successful use of a targeted therapy is intrinsically linked to the ability of a companion diagnostic to correctly identify patients most likely to benefit from treatment. The aim of this study was to review the characteristics of companion diagnostics that are of importance for inclusion in an economic evaluation. Approaches for including these characteristics in model-based economic evaluations are compared with the intent to describe best practice methods. Five databases and government agency websites were searched to identify model-based economic evaluations comparing a companion diagnostic and subsequent treatment strategy to another alternative treatment strategy with model parameters for the sensitivity and specificity of the companion diagnostic (primary synthesis). Economic evaluations that limited model parameters for the companion diagnostic to only its cost were also identified (secondary synthesis). Quality was assessed using the Quality of Health Economic Studies instrument. 30 studies were included in the review (primary synthesis n = 12; secondary synthesis n = 18). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios may be lower when the only parameter for the companion diagnostic included in a model is the cost of testing. Incorporating the test's accuracy in addition to its cost may be a more appropriate methodological approach. Altering the prevalence of the genetic biomarker, specific population tested, type of test, test accuracy and timing/sequence of multiple tests can all impact overall model results. The impact of altering a test's threshold for positivity is unknown as it was not addressed in any of the included studies. Additional quality criteria as outlined in our methodological checklist should be considered due to the shortcomings of standard quality assessment tools in differentiating studies that incorporate important test-related characteristics and those that do not. There is a need to refine methods for incorporating the characteristics

Modeling economic costs of disasters and recovery involving positive effects of reconstruction: analysis using a dynamic CGE model

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Xie, W.; Li, N.; Wu, J.-D.; Hao, X.-L.

2013-11-01

Disaster damages have negative effects on economy, whereas reconstruction investments have positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and further avoid double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks in CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on supply side of economy; A portion of investments restore the capital stock in existing period; An investment-driven dynamic model is formulated due to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. S2 overestimates economic loss by roughly two times that under S1. The gap in economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% in 2011, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

Using STELLA Simulation Models to Teach Natural Resource Economics

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Dissanayake, Sahan T. M.

2016-01-01

In this article, the author discusses how graphical simulation models created using STELLA software can be used to present natural resource systems in an intuitive way in undergraduate natural resource economics classes based on his experiences at a leading research university, a state university, and a leading liberal arts college in the United…

A survey on the geometry of production models in economics

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Alina-Daniela Vîlcu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this article we survey selected recent results on the geometry of production models, focussing on the main production functions that are usually analyzed in economics, namely homogeneous, homothetic, quasi-sum and quasi-product production functions.

EMBIO - The Danish Energy Agency's model for economic and environmental evaluation of bio-fuels. Main report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

A methodological concept is established for a life-cycle based model which can be used for socio- and private economic and environmental assessment of automotive bio-fuels. The calculation method must be able to calculate socio-economic, energy, environmental, and other consequences by alternative productions and uses of bio-fuels in a way that makes it possible to compare advantages and disadvantages across alternative production technologies. Furthermore it must be possible to perform private cost-benefit calculations from the model. The model must also be able to evaluate specific bio-fuel project, and therefore the method has been developed in close interaction with analyses of two bio-fuel projects. The main emphasis in the development of the model has been put on the relation between CO 2 reduction and economics. One main result of the model analyses is therefore the calculated shadow price for the CO 2 reduction which expresses the socio-economic costs per ton saved CO 2 . The socio-economic analyses of the model do not include a monetary account of other environmental impacts than the CO 2 emission or other relevant consequences like impacts on employment, balance of payments etc. Thus the socio-economic analyses cannot be the only decision basis for assessing bio-fuel projects. The other environmental aspects are treated only briefly. The model may, however, very easily be extended to a more formalized account of these other aspects. The model may be used for specific experimental projects and for implementation of large full-scale projects. The model development has been limited to use of bio-fuels in the transportation sector. The model may, however, also be used for evaluating bio-fuels in general or other biomass-based energy use in other sectors. (LN) 113 refs

Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

2014-01-01

The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

Foreword to the Special Issue on "Dynamic Models in Economics and Finance"

Science.gov (United States)

Gardini, Laura; Kubin, Ingrid; Tramontana, Fabio; Wagener, Florian

2018-05-01

International workshops on Dynamic Models in Economics and Finance (MDEF) take place every two years in Urbino (Italy); since the inception of the series in 2000, there have been nine editions. The subject has become a central topic for scholars working on economic dynamics. In 2016 the workshop was held under the auspices of University of Urbino "Carlo Bo" , DESP1

Non-equilibrium Economics

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Katalin Martinás

2007-02-01

Full Text Available A microeconomic, agent based framework to dynamic economics is formulated in a materialist approach. An axiomatic foundation of a non-equilibrium microeconomics is outlined. Economic activity is modelled as transformation and transport of commodities (materials owned by the agents. Rate of transformations (production intensity, and the rate of transport (trade are defined by the agents. Economic decision rules are derived from the observed economic behaviour. The non-linear equations are solved numerically for a model economy. Numerical solutions for simple model economies suggest that the some of the results of general equilibrium economics are consequences only of the equilibrium hypothesis. We show that perfect competition of selfish agents does not guarantee the stability of economic equilibrium, but cooperativity is needed, too.

Spatial–Temporal Modeling for Regional Economic Development: A Quantitative Analysis with Panel Data from Western China

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Jingxiao Zhang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The objective of this research is to analyze regional economic difference and explore the influencing factors, which would eventually provide an effective foundation to narrow the regional economic differences. In this paper, a new regional economic difference model is established considering the interactions between the spatial weight and human capital and foreign direct investment (FDI. With the panel data from twelve western provinces in China, the empirical research is conducted by adopting feasible generalized least squares (FGLS fixed effects model. The preliminary results show that: (1 the spatial spillover effect of human capital and FDI is significant to the formation of regional economic difference; and (2 the total capital formation, government expenditure, FDI, human capital and patent application authorization are positively correlated with GDP growth per capita, while the number of medical institutions is negatively correlated with GDP growth per capita. In addition, the robust test is carried out for validation by using the filter variable method, spatial lag model and spatial error model. The robustness test results show that the results of the FGLS fixed effects model are validated by the filter variable method. The other two robust test results show that: (1 the total capital formation and the fixed asset investment is of 99.9% significance, which represents that they play a key role in the formation of economic development difference; and (2 the coefficients’ symbols of the other variables are consistent with the FGLS fixed effect model but a little different on the significances, which enhance the effectiveness of the proposed regional economic difference model.

A Linked Hydro-Economic Model to Examine the Effects of Water Policy on Rural Poverty

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Maneta, M. P.; Torres, M.; Vosti, S. A.; Wallender, W. W.; Howitt, R.; Rodrigues, L. N.; Bassoi, L. H.; Pfeiffer, L.; Young, J.

2006-12-01

The sustainable intensification of small-scale agriculture is a necessary condition for reducing rural poverty in developing countries. Increasing the amount of irrigated cropland and the economic efficiency of irrigation are two key components of most intensification strategies. Improved access to water generally increases farm income but richer farmers use a disproportionate share of the available water, decreasing the chances of poor farmers to meet their water needs. Furthermore, water and poverty have strong spatial components that have so far been neglected in water planning. In that sense, too little is known about the short and long term hydrological effects, especially the externality effects of changes in on-farm water use and its implications to nearby farmers. To address this gap in knowledge, a spatially distributed and transient description of changes in surface and groundwater allocation under different agricultural management scenarios is needed. We propose a hydro-economic model providing a realistic spatio-temporal description of the linkages between the economic and hydrologic subsystems. This hydro-economic model is composed of a basin-level 3D spatially distributed transient hydrologic model (MOD-HMS) and a farm-level, spatially distributed agricultural production model. Both models are explicitly linked through the boundary conditions of the hydrologic model. The linkage will account for the spatial and temporal impact of different crop mixes, irrigation techniques and groundwater pumpage on water availability at farm level to assess the effects of policy action on the hydro-economic components of the system.

Using Agent-Based Models in the Analysis and Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of Territories

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Vitalii Nikolaevich Makoveev

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to study the essence of agent-based modeling, defining its features and prospects of usage in the modeling of socio-economic development of territories and systematization of domestic and foreign approaches to the development of prototypes for agent-based models of territories. Information basis for the research comprised the works on agent-based modeling by Russian and foreign scholars, especially articles and monographs of scientists of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, papers presented in an international journal The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation and other sources available on the Internet. The article presents theoretical and methodological foundations of agent-based models of territories. The author considers the concepts of “agent-based modeling” and “agent” and defines specifics of agent-based models in comparison with other types of simulation modeling. The paper also describes major stages of building agent-based models for territories and considers qualification requirements to a modeling subject. Furthermore, it reviews Russian and foreign approaches to the development of prototypes for agent-based models of territories. It has been determined that most of them deal with the modeling of spatial, territorial and socio-economic development of regions, cities and municipal entities. Agents in such models are presented by households, residents of regions and cities, enterprises and organizations operating in their territory, and public administration authorities (their inclusion in the model makes it possible to test different options of management impacts on territories by changing the model parameters, for instance, the introduction of certain prohibitions and quotas, issuance of permits, distribution of financial resources, etc.. At the end of the paper, the author formulates major conclusions. He shows the complexity faced

Economic intermittency in a two-country model of business cycles coupled by investment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saiki, Y., E-mail: saiki@math.sci.hokudai.ac.jp [Department of Mathematics, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060-0810 (Japan); Chian, A.C.L. [National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and World Institute for Space Environment Research (WISER), P.O. Box 515, Sao Jose dos Campos-SP 12227-010 (Brazil); California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Yoshida, H. [College of Economics, Nihon University, Tokyo 101-8360 (Japan)

2011-06-15

Highlights: > Intermittent economic behavior of Keynes-Goodwin type model is investigated. > After a transition the system keeps its memory before the transition. > The intermittent phenomena is examined from the business cycle patterns. > It is concluded that dynamical patterns do not alter much around the transition. - Abstract: Intermittent behavior of economic dynamics is investigated by a two-country model of Keynes-Goodwin type business cycles. Numerical simulations show that after an economic system evolves from weak chaos to strong chaos the system keeps its memory before the transition and its time series alternates episodically between periods of weakly and strongly chaotic fluctuations. In addition, we examine the intermittent phenomena from the view point of business cycle patterns near the crisis point.

Economic intermittency in a two-country model of business cycles coupled by investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saiki, Y.; Chian, A.C.L.; Yoshida, H.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Intermittent economic behavior of Keynes-Goodwin type model is investigated. → After a transition the system keeps its memory before the transition. → The intermittent phenomena is examined from the business cycle patterns. → It is concluded that dynamical patterns do not alter much around the transition. - Abstract: Intermittent behavior of economic dynamics is investigated by a two-country model of Keynes-Goodwin type business cycles. Numerical simulations show that after an economic system evolves from weak chaos to strong chaos the system keeps its memory before the transition and its time series alternates episodically between periods of weakly and strongly chaotic fluctuations. In addition, we examine the intermittent phenomena from the view point of business cycle patterns near the crisis point.

Simulation-economic model of using the geothermal energy of Uzbekistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mukhamedov, R.S.; Yuksel, B.

1990-01-01

Although a wide range of estimates with different authors have the common view that Soviet Central Asia is a region ranking among the first in the USSR in terms of geothermal resources which are economically feasible for exploitation. Uzbekistan has the highest potential in the region. The areas inside the republic's territory which have particularly high geothermal energy potential are: the Fergana fracture, specifically the Adrusman-Chust anomaly, the Ustyurt plateau, the southern coast of the Aral Sea, and a group of small artesian basins in the heart of the Kyzyl Kum desert. The ultimate goal of this paper is to construct a simulation-economic model with the following characteristics: minimum effect on the ecological situation in the republic; minimum cost; heat and mass transfer in geological and geothermal structures; economic parameters for different technological systems

Library of sophisticated functions for analysis of nuclear spectra

Science.gov (United States)

Morháč, Miroslav; Matoušek, Vladislav

2009-10-01

In the paper we present compact library for analysis of nuclear spectra. The library consists of sophisticated functions for background elimination, smoothing, peak searching, deconvolution, and peak fitting. The functions can process one- and two-dimensional spectra. The software described in the paper comprises a number of conventional as well as newly developed methods needed to analyze experimental data. Program summaryProgram title: SpecAnalysLib 1.1 Catalogue identifier: AEDZ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEDZ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 42 154 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 2 379 437 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C++ Computer: Pentium 3 PC 2.4 GHz or higher, Borland C++ Builder v. 6. A precompiled Windows version is included in the distribution package Operating system: Windows 32 bit versions RAM: 10 MB Word size: 32 bits Classification: 17.6 Nature of problem: The demand for advanced highly effective experimental data analysis functions is enormous. The library package represents one approach to give the physicists the possibility to use the advanced routines simply by calling them from their own programs. SpecAnalysLib is a collection of functions for analysis of one- and two-parameter γ-ray spectra, but they can be used for other types of data as well. The library consists of sophisticated functions for background elimination, smoothing, peak searching, deconvolution, and peak fitting. Solution method: The algorithms of background estimation are based on Sensitive Non-linear Iterative Peak (SNIP) clipping algorithm. The smoothing algorithms are based on the convolution of the original data with several types of filters and algorithms based on discrete

A health economic lifetime treatment pathway model for low back pain in Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Olafsson, Gylfi; Jonsson, Emma; Fritzell, Peter; Hägg, Olle; Borgström, Fredrik

2017-12-01

To develop a health economic model to evaluate the long-term costs and outcomes over the healthcare treatment pathway for patients with low back pain (LBP). A health economic model, consisting of a decision tree structure with a Markov microsimulation model at the end of each branch, was created. Patients were followed from first observed clinical presentation with LBP until the age of 100 years or death. The underlying data to populate the model were based on Swedish national and regional registry data on healthcare resource use and sickness insurance in patients presenting with LBP in the Swedish region Västra Götaland during 2008-2012. Costs (outpatient healthcare visits, inpatient bed days, pharmaceuticals, productivity loss), EUR 2016, and quality-of-life based on EQ-5D data from the registries and published estimates were summarized over the lifetime of the patients with 3% annual discount. A lost quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was valued at €70,000. Mean lifetime total cost was estimated at €47,452/patient, of which indirect costs were 57%. Total lifetime economic burden for all patients coming to clinical presentation in Sweden per year was €8.8bn. The average LBP patient was estimated to face a loss of 2.7 QALYs over their lifetime compared with the general population. For all patients in Sweden coming to clinical presentation in 1 year this gives 505,407 QALYs lost, valued at €35.3bn. Adding the economic burden, the total societal burden amounts to €44.1bn. This pathway model shows that most patients with LBP receive conservative care, and a minority consume high-cost healthcare interventions like surgery. The model could be used to see broad economic effects of different patterns of healthcare provision in sub-groups with LBP and to estimate where it is possible to influence these pathways to increase utility for patients and for society.

MODELLING OF TOURISM SERVICE DYNAMICS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC PATTERN OF SOCIETY

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Lesya Buyak

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Tourism as a phenomenon of social life is a derivative of social development. Its appearance is attributed to the industrial stage of human development, which was inherent in the accelerated development of the productive forces, deepening division of labour, development of urbanization processes. Accelerated innovation changes related to scientific and technological progress contributed to the overall socio-economic development of certain countries, improve the living standards of their populations, changed the nature of work, method and way of life, especially evident in the XX century. Urbanization and changes in the settlement system, post-industrial phase of economic development, deepening comprehension of environmental issues and global dimension of humanity, humanization of all spheres of public life. The increase in tourist flows in all regions complicates the management of enterprises, schemes of partnership in the process in tourism, which, among other things, is accompanied by rising levels of consumer education, and therefore their quality requirements for end tourism product, the rapid increase in supply, there is a need to study the characteristics of consumer behaviour, search for existing reserves to build capacity of individual enterprises, isolation and effective use of effective methods and tools of influence on consumer choice of consumers. Development and implementation of an effective mechanism of formation of market supply needs an assessment of consumer behaviour on quantitative and qualitative indicators. The rapid development of tourism, of course, helps determine the types and methods of calculating these indicators. These problems and targeted research are considered in this article. The subject of research is the concept and tools of analysis, mathematical modelling of the economic structure of society in dynamic tourist services. Research methodology is economic and mathematical models, algorithms and processes

Economic Optimization of Spray Dryer Operation using Nonlinear Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Lars Norbert; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

2014-01-01

In this paper we investigate an economically optimizing Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (E-NMPC) for a spray drying process. By simulation we evaluate the economic potential of this E-NMPC compared to a conventional PID based control strategy. Spray drying is the preferred process to reduce...... the water content for many liquid foodstuffs and produces a free flowing powder. The main challenge in controlling the spray drying process is to meet the residual moisture specifications and avoid that the powder sticks to the chamber walls of the spray dryer. We present a model for a spray dryer that has...... been validated on experimental data from a pilot plant. We use this model for simulation as well as for prediction in the E-NMPC. The E-NMPC is designed with hard input constraints and soft output constraints. The open-loop optimal control problem in the E-NMPC is solved using the single...

Coupling of a distributed stakeholder-built system dynamics socio-economic model with SAHYSMOD for sustainable soil salinity management - Part 1: Model development

Science.gov (United States)

Inam, Azhar; Adamowski, Jan; Prasher, Shiv; Halbe, Johannes; Malard, Julien; Albano, Raffaele

2017-08-01

Effective policies, leading to sustainable management solutions for land and water resources, require a full understanding of interactions between socio-economic and physical processes. However, the complex nature of these interactions, combined with limited stakeholder engagement, hinders the incorporation of socio-economic components into physical models. The present study addresses this challenge by integrating the physical Spatial Agro Hydro Salinity Model (SAHYSMOD) with a participatory group-built system dynamics model (GBSDM) that includes socio-economic factors. A stepwise process to quantify the GBSDM is presented, along with governing equations and model assumptions. Sub-modules of the GBSDM, describing agricultural, economic, water and farm management factors, are linked together with feedbacks and finally coupled with the physically based SAHYSMOD model through commonly used tools (i.e., MS Excel and a Python script). The overall integrated model (GBSDM-SAHYSMOD) can be used to help facilitate the role of stakeholders with limited expertise and resources in model and policy development and implementation. Following the development of the integrated model, a testing methodology was used to validate the structure and behavior of the integrated model. Model robustness under different operating conditions was also assessed. The model structure was able to produce anticipated real behaviours under the tested scenarios, from which it can be concluded that the formulated structures generate the right behaviour for the right reasons.

Linking an economic model for European agriculture with a mechanistic model to estimate nitrogen and carbon losses from arable soils in Europe

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A. Leip

2008-01-01

Full Text Available A comprehensive assessment of policy impact on greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from agricultural soils requires careful consideration of both socio-economic aspects and the environmental heterogeneity of the landscape. We developed a modelling framework that links the large-scale economic model for agriculture CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact assessment with the biogeochemistry model DNDC (DeNitrification DeComposition to simulate GHG fluxes, carbon stock changes and the nitrogen budget of agricultural soils in Europe. The framework allows the ex-ante simulation of agricultural or agri-environmental policy impacts on a wide range of environmental problems such as climate change (GHG emissions, air pollution and groundwater pollution. Those environmental impacts can be analyzed in the context of economic and social indicators as calculated by the economic model. The methodology consists of four steps: (i definition of appropriate calculation units that can be considered as homogeneous in terms of economic behaviour and environmental response; (ii downscaling of regional agricultural statistics and farm management information from a CAPRI simulation run into the spatial calculation units; (iii designing environmental model scenarios and model runs; and finally (iv aggregating results for interpretation. We show the first results of the nitrogen budget in croplands in fourteen countries of the European Union and discuss possibilities to improve the detailed assessment of nitrogen and carbon fluxes from European arable soils.

Model Proposition for the Fiscal Policies Analysis Applied in Economic Field

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Larisa Preda

2007-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a study about fiscal policy applied in economic development. Correlations between macroeconomics and fiscal indicators signify the first steep in our analysis. Next step is a new model proposal for the fiscal and budgetary choices. This model is applied on the date of the Romanian case.

Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism: Challenges for Ski Area Operators

Science.gov (United States)

Damm, A.; Köberl, J.; Prettenthaler, F.; Töglhofer, C.

2012-04-01

Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons pose a big challenge for the winter tourism industry. Changing natural snow reliability influences tourism demand and ski area operators are faced with an enhanced need of technical snow production. The goal of the present research work is to analyze the economic effects of technical snow production under future climate conditions. Snowmaking as an adaptation strategy to climate change impacts on the ski tourism industry is already taken into consideration in several studies from a scientific perspective concerning snowmaking potentials under future climate conditions and the impacts on ski season length (e.g. Scott et al. 2003; Scott & McBoyle 2007; Hennessy et al. 2008; Steiger 2010). A few studies considered economic aspects of technical snowmaking (e.g. Teich et al. 2007; Gonseth 2008). However, a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of snowmaking under future climate and snow conditions based on sophisticated climate and snow models has not been carried out yet. The present study addresses the gap of knowledge concerning the economic profitability of prospective snowmaking requirements under future climate scenarios. We carry out a detailed cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking under current and future climate conditions for a case study site in Styria (Austria) using dynamic investment models. The starting point of all economic calculations is the daily demand for artificial snow that determines the requirements for additional snowmaking investments and additional operating costs. The demand for artificial snow is delivered by the snow cover model AMUNDSEN (see Strasser et al. 2011) and is driven by four climate scenarios. Apart from future climate conditions the profitability of snowmaking depends on changes in costs and visitor numbers. The results of a ski tourism demand model analyzing daily visitor numbers and their dependencies of prevailing weather conditions enter the cost-revenue analysis of

Nonlinear economic dynamics and financial modelling: essays in honour of Carl Chiarella

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dieci, R.; He, X.Z.; Hommes, C.

2014-01-01

This book reflects the state of the art on nonlinear economic dynamics, financial market modelling and quantitative finance. It contains eighteen papers with topics ranging from disequilibrium macroeconomics, monetary dynamics, monopoly, financial market and limit order market models with boundedly

Integration of Nutrition and Economic Development in Sri Lanka: The Graduation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peiris, Dilka; Fernando, Sisira

2014-01-01

Full text: WV Lanka’s Graduation Model integrates economic development and nutrition-specific interventions in order to sustainably reduce childhood growth failure. The Graduation Model identifies families where they are on the economic and nutrition scale to tailor interventions enabling graduation from one living standard segment to the next, as well as enabling improved nutrition. Families with malnourished children are identified and supported with appropriate nutrition interventions, in addition to the tailored economic interventions, which first focus on nutrition rehabilitation through positive deviant Hearth approach and then increasing diet diversity through food security and livelihoods. WV Lanka is implementing an integrated approach to address malnutrition. The components of the Graduation Model focused on families: 1. Participatory Living Standard Ranking (PLSR) to identify the living standards of the families. PLSR leads to a segmentation of all households in to six segments depending on the living standards. They are:, Destitute (DT), Poorest of the poor (PoP), Poor (P), Vulnerable none poor (VNP), Suitable livelihood & Micro Entrepreneur (SL & ME) and Small and Medium Entrepreneur & above (SME & Above). 2. Nutrition assessment/growth monitoring to identify nutritional status of children and their families. 3. Family Development Plan prepared for all households and all members of the family – incorporating the Sustainable Livelihood. 4. The Positive Deviance/Hearth approach is used to identify existing practices which promote good nutrition and these practices later on were shared to caregivers of malnourished children through experiential learning. The Positive Deviance/Hearth sessions are used to promote the caring, feeding, hygienic and health seeking practices among caregivers. Low income families with malnourished children are supported to establish home gardens. Interventions include a combination of home gardens, business training, pre

Technical and Vocational Education and Training for Economic Growth in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shirin Nooruddin

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This discussion paper aims to highlight the existing scenario of Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET for the economic growth in Pakistan. It specifically analysis the status of vocational training, related policies and practices with reference to the 18th Amendment, which abolishes the concurrent list and grants more provincial autonomy in the matters of education. Article 25A of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan (iv states that the provinces should set priorities for access and quality education based on the provincial needs and develop action plans for its actualization. A developing country like Pakistan needs to devise a systematic, well thought and sophisticated policy for TVET; therefore, this paper proposes a policy following the simple framework of input, process and output. The inputs are predominantly focused on highlighting and matching demand and supply of the TVET. The process thoroughly discusses both the formal and informal education arrangements. Finally, the outputs are deliberated in the form of economic effects such as the manpower structures, technological development, manpower quality and economic behavior leading to the ultimate goal of economic growth and development of the country.

Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging using Time Varying Weights

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); R.H. Kleijn (Richard); H.K. van Dijk (Herman); M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

2009-01-01

textabstractSeveral Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time

EMBIO - The Danish Energy Agency's model for economic and environmental evaluation of bio-fuels. Appendix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

A methodological concept is established for a life-cycle based model which can be used for socio- and private economic and environmental assessment of automotive bio-fuels. The calculation method must be able to calculate socio-economic, energy, environmental, and other consequences by alternative productions and uses of bio-fuels. The main emphasis in the development of the model has been put on the relation between CO 2 reduction and economics. The appendix presents details of the model used for evaluating two specific projects: 'Bio-diesel in the Lemvig area (Denmark), rape seeds as energy crops'; 'Ethanol in the green bio-refining plant'. The results from the use of the model are presented and sensitivity analyses of the model results are performed. Furthermore, a number of background information is presented to be used in relation to the model for evaluating alternative production methods and uses of bio-fuels. Primarily Danish and other European sources of information are selected. (LN)

A Mathematical Model of Economic Population Dynamics in a Country That Has Optimal Zakat Management

Science.gov (United States)

Subhan, M.

2018-04-01

Zakat is the main tools against two issues in Islamic economy: economic justice and helping the poor. However, no government of Islamic countries can solve the economic disparity today. A mathematical model could give some understanding about this phenomenon. The goal of this research is to obtain a mathematical model that can describe the dynamic of economic group population. The research is theoretical based on relevance references. From the analytical and numerical simulation, we conclude that well-manage zakat and full comitment of the wealthy can achieve wealth equilibrium that represents minimum poverty.

Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovecki, Mladen

2011-08-15

To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by implementing changes in the next fiscal

Economic value added model upon conditions of banking company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vlasta Kašparovská

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The content of this article is the application of the economic value added model (EVA upon the conditions of a banking company. Due to the character of banking business, which is in a different structure of financial sheet, it is not possible to use the standard model EVA for this banking company. The base of this article is the outlined of basic principles of the EVA mode in a non-banking company. Basic specified banking activity dissimilarities are analysed and a directed methodology adjustment of a model such as this, so that it is possible to use it for a banking company.

Studies and research concerning BNFP. Identification and simplified modeling of economically important radwaste variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebel, P.E.; Godfrey, W.L.; Henry, J.L.; Postles, R.L.

1983-09-01

An extensive computer model describing the mass balance and economic characteristics of radioactive waste disposal systems was exercised in a series of runs designed using linear statistical methods. The most economically important variables were identified, their behavior characterized, and a simplified computer model prepared which runs on desk-top minicomputers. This simplified model allows the investigation of the effects of the seven most significant variables in each of four waste areas: Liquid Waste Storage, Liquid Waste Solidification, General Process Trash Handling, and Hulls Handling. 8 references, 1 figure, 12 tables

THE ROLE OF MORTGAGE CREDIT IN ENSURING ECONOMIC GROWTH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. L. Garipova