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Sample records for solving decision-making planning

  1. Decision-Making Styles and Problem-Solving Appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Susan D.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Compared decision-making style and problem-solving appraisal in 243 undergraduates. Results suggested that individuals who employ rational decision-making strategies approach problematic situations, while individuals who endorse dependent decisional strategies approach problematic situations without confidence in their problem-solving abilities.…

  2. Decision-making and problem-solving methods in automation technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hankins, W. W.; Pennington, J. E.; Barker, L. K.

    1983-01-01

    The state of the art in the automation of decision making and problem solving is reviewed. The information upon which the report is based was derived from literature searches, visits to university and government laboratories performing basic research in the area, and a 1980 Langley Research Center sponsored conferences on the subject. It is the contention of the authors that the technology in this area is being generated by research primarily in the three disciplines of Artificial Intelligence, Control Theory, and Operations Research. Under the assumption that the state of the art in decision making and problem solving is reflected in the problems being solved, specific problems and methods of their solution are often discussed to elucidate particular aspects of the subject. Synopses of the following major topic areas comprise most of the report: (1) detection and recognition; (2) planning; and scheduling; (3) learning; (4) theorem proving; (5) distributed systems; (6) knowledge bases; (7) search; (8) heuristics; and (9) evolutionary programming.

  3. The Students Decision Making in Solving Discount Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdillah; Nusantara, Toto; Subanji; Susanto, Hery; Abadyo

    2016-01-01

    This research is reviewing students' process of decision making intuitively, analytically, and interactively. The research done by using discount problem which specially created to explore student's intuition, analytically, and interactively. In solving discount problems, researcher exploring student's decision in determining their attitude which…

  4. Strategic planning decision making using fuzzy SWOT-TOPSIS with reliability factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Daud; Afandi, Nur Syamimi; Kamis, Nor Hanimah

    2015-10-01

    Strategic planning is a process of decision making and action for long-term activities in an organization. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis has been commonly used to help organizations in strategizing their future direction by analyzing internal and external environment. However, SWOT analysis has some limitations as it is unable to prioritize appropriately the multiple alternative strategic decisions. Some efforts have been made to solve this problem by incorporating Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Nevertheless, another important aspect has raised concerns on obtaining the decision that is the reliability of the information. Decision makers evaluate differently depending on their level of confidence or sureness in the evaluation. This study proposes a decision making procedure for strategic planning using SWOT-TOPSIS method by incorporating the reliability factor of the evaluation based on Z-number. An example using a local authority in the east coast of Malaysia is illustrated to determine the strategic options ranking and to prioritize factors in each SWOT category.

  5. An Interactive Strategy for Solving Multi-Criteria Decision Making of Sustainable Land Revitalization Planning Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayasari, Ruth; Mawengkang, Herman; Gomar Purba, Ronal

    2018-02-01

    Land revitalization refers to comprehensive renovation of farmland, waterways, roads, forest or villages to improve the quality of plantation, raise the productivity of the plantation area and improve agricultural production conditions and the environment. The objective of sustainable land revitalization planning is to facilitate environmentally, socially, and economically viable land use. Therefore it is reasonable to use participatory approach to fullfil the plan. This paper addresses a multicriteria decision aid to model such planning problem, then we develop an interactive approach for solving the problem.

  6. Expert Team Decision-Making and Problem Solving: Development and Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Tancig

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Traditional research of decision-making has not significantly contributed towards better understanding of professional judgment and decisions in practice. Researchers dealing with decision-making in various professions and natural settings initiated new perspectives called naturalistic, which put the expert in the focus of research and the expertise thus entered the core of decision-making research in natural situations.Expert team is more than a group of experts. It is defined as a group of interdependent team members with a high level of task related expertise and the mastering of team processes.There have been several advances in understanding of expertise and the team. By combining theories, models, and empirical evidence we are trying to explain effectiveness and adaptation of expert teams in problem-solving and decision-making in complex and dynamic situations.A considerable research has been devoted to finding out what are the characteristics of experts and expert teams during their optimal functioning. These characteristics are discussed as input, process and output factors. As input variables the cognitive, social-affective, and motivational characteristics are presented. Process variables encompass individual and team learning, problem solving and decision-making as presented in Kolb’s cycle of learning, in deeper structures of dialogue and discussion, and in phenomena of collaboration, alignment, and distributed cognition. Outcome variables deal with task performance – activities.

  7. SOLVING OPTIMAL ASSEMBLY LINE CONFIGURATION TASK BY MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ján ČABALA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with looking for the optimal configuration of automated assembly line model placed within Department of Cybernetics and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI. In order to solve this problem, Stateflow model of each configuration was created to simulate the behaviour of particular assembly line configuration. Outputs from these models were used as inputs into the multiobjective decision making process. Multi-objective decision-making methods were subsequently used to find the optimal configuration of assembly line. Paper describes the whole process of solving this task, from building the models to choosing the best configuration. Specifically, the problem was resolved using the experts’ evaluation method for evaluating the weights of every decision-making criterion, while the ELECTRE III, TOPSIS and AGREPREF methods were used for ordering the possible solutions from the most to the least suitable alternative. Obtained results were compared and final solution of this multi-objective decisionmaking problem is chosen.

  8. Decision-Making and Problem-Solving Approaches in Pharmacy Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Lindsay C; Donohoe, Krista L; Holdford, David A

    2016-04-25

    Domain 3 of the Center for the Advancement of Pharmacy Education (CAPE) 2013 Educational Outcomes recommends that pharmacy school curricula prepare students to be better problem solvers, but are silent on the type of problems they should be prepared to solve. We identified five basic approaches to problem solving in the curriculum at a pharmacy school: clinical, ethical, managerial, economic, and legal. These approaches were compared to determine a generic process that could be applied to all pharmacy decisions. Although there were similarities in the approaches, generic problem solving processes may not work for all problems. Successful problem solving requires identification of the problems faced and application of the right approach to the situation. We also advocate that the CAPE Outcomes make explicit the importance of different approaches to problem solving. Future pharmacists will need multiple approaches to problem solving to adapt to the complexity of health care.

  9. Children's Use of Meta-Cognition in Solving Everyday Problems: Children's Monetary Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chwee Beng; Koh, Noi Keng; Cai, Xin Le; Quek, Choon Lang

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand how children use meta-cognition in their everyday problem-solving, particularly making monetary decisions. A particular focus was to identify components of meta-cognition, such as regulation of cognition and knowledge of cognition observed in children's monetary decision-making process, the roles of…

  10. Effect of training problem-solving skill on decision-making and critical thinking of personnel at medical emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, Mohammad; Shahbazi, Sara

    2016-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to determine the effect of problem-solving training on decision-making skill and critical thinking in emergency medical personnel. Materials and Methods: This study is an experimental study that performed in 95 emergency medical personnel in two groups of control (48) and experimental (47). Then, a short problem-solving course based on 8 sessions of 2 h during the term, was performed for the experimental group. Of data gathering was used demographic and researcher made decision-making and California critical thinking skills questionnaires. Data were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: The finding revealed that decision-making and critical thinking score in emergency medical personnel are low and problem-solving course, positively affected the personnel’ decision-making skill and critical thinking after the educational program (P problem-solving in various emergency medicine domains such as education, research, and management, is recommended. PMID:28149823

  11. Goals and plans in decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David H. Krantz

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available We propose a constructed-choice model for general decision making. The model departs from utility theory and prospect theory in its treatment of multiple goals and it suggests several different ways in which context can affect choice. It is particularly instructive to apply this model to protective decisions, which are often puzzling. Among other anomalies, people insure against non-catastrophic events, underinsure against catastrophic risks, and allow extraneous factors to influence insurance purchases and other protective decisions. Neither expected-utility theory nor prospect theory can explain these anomalies satisfactorily. To apply this model to the above anomalies, we consider many different insurance-related goals, organized in a taxonomy, and we consider the effects of context on goals, resources, plans and decision rules. The paper concludes by suggesting some prescriptions for improving individual decision making with respect to protective measures.

  12. Triage: Making a Political Decision to Solve an Environmental Science Problem Through Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridolfi, Thomas

    1974-01-01

    A description is given of a class project concerned with examining a population problem and making some political decisions to solve it. A list of topics for the students to research as a basis for their decisions is provided. (DT)

  13. Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier Luigi Baldi

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.

  14. A Survey of Multi-Objective Sequential Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Roijers, D.M.; Vamplew, P.; Whiteson, S.; Dazeley, R.

    2013-01-01

    Sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives arise naturally in practice and pose unique challenges for research in decision-theoretic planning and learning, which has largely focused on single-objective settings. This article surveys algorithms designed for sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives. Though there is a growing body of literature on this subject, little of it makes explicit under what circumstances special methods are needed to solve multi-obj...

  15. Goal-Directed Decision Making with Spiking Neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, Johannes; Lengyel, Máté

    2016-02-03

    Behavioral and neuroscientific data on reward-based decision making point to a fundamental distinction between habitual and goal-directed action selection. The formation of habits, which requires simple updating of cached values, has been studied in great detail, and the reward prediction error theory of dopamine function has enjoyed prominent success in accounting for its neural bases. In contrast, the neural circuit mechanisms of goal-directed decision making, requiring extended iterative computations to estimate values online, are still unknown. Here we present a spiking neural network that provably solves the difficult online value estimation problem underlying goal-directed decision making in a near-optimal way and reproduces behavioral as well as neurophysiological experimental data on tasks ranging from simple binary choice to sequential decision making. Our model uses local plasticity rules to learn the synaptic weights of a simple neural network to achieve optimal performance and solves one-step decision-making tasks, commonly considered in neuroeconomics, as well as more challenging sequential decision-making tasks within 1 s. These decision times, and their parametric dependence on task parameters, as well as the final choice probabilities match behavioral data, whereas the evolution of neural activities in the network closely mimics neural responses recorded in frontal cortices during the execution of such tasks. Our theory provides a principled framework to understand the neural underpinning of goal-directed decision making and makes novel predictions for sequential decision-making tasks with multiple rewards. Goal-directed actions requiring prospective planning pervade decision making, but their circuit-level mechanisms remain elusive. We show how a model circuit of biologically realistic spiking neurons can solve this computationally challenging problem in a novel way. The synaptic weights of our network can be learned using local plasticity rules

  16. Decision-making and planning in full recovery of anorexia nervosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindner, Susanne E; Fichter, Manfred M; Quadflieg, Norbert

    2012-11-01

    Based on findings of persisting neuropsychological impairments in women recovered from anorexia nervosa (rec AN), this study examined decision-making and planning, for achieving a desired goal, as central executive functions in a large sample of rec AN. The definition of recovery included physiological, behavioral, and psychological variables. A total of 100 rec AN women were compared to 100 healthy women, 1:1 matched for age and educational level. Decision-making was assessed with the Iowa Gambling Task and planning with the Tower of London. Expert interviews and self-ratings were used for assessing the inclusion/exclusion criteria and control variables. Compared to healthy controls, rec AN women were better in decision-making and worse in planning even after considering control variables. This study does not support results from other studies showing that rec AN participants perform better in decision-making. Results from this study show that planning is impaired even after full recovery from AN. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nardin, Luis G; Miller, Craig R; Ridenhour, Benjamin J; Krone, Stephen M; Joyce, Paul; Baumgaertner, Bert O

    2016-01-01

    The spread of infectious diseases can be impacted by human behavior, and behavioral decisions often depend implicitly on a planning horizon-the time in the future over which options are weighed. We investigate the effects of planning horizons on epidemic dynamics. We developed an epidemiological agent-based model (along with an ODE analog) to explore the decision-making of self-interested individuals on adopting prophylactic behavior. The decision-making process incorporates prophylaxis efficacy and disease prevalence with the individuals' payoffs and planning horizon. Our results show that for short and long planning horizons individuals do not consider engaging in prophylactic behavior. In contrast, individuals adopt prophylactic behavior when considering intermediate planning horizons. Such adoption, however, is not always monotonically associated with the prevalence of the disease, depending on the perceived protection efficacy and the disease parameters. Adoption of prophylactic behavior reduces the epidemic peak size while prolonging the epidemic and potentially generates secondary waves of infection. These effects can be made stronger by increasing the behavioral decision frequency or distorting an individual's perceived risk of infection.

  18. Solving SAT problem by heuristic polarity decision-making algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a heuristic polarity decision-making algorithm for solving Boolean satisfiability (SAT). The algorithm inherits many features of the current state-of-the-art SAT solvers, such as fast BCP, clause recording, restarts, etc. In addition, a preconditioning step that calculates the polarities of variables according to the cover distribution of Karnaugh map is introduced into DPLL procedure, which greatly reduces the number of conflicts in the search process. The proposed approach is implemented as a SAT solver named DiffSat. Experiments show that DiffSat can solve many "real-life" instances in a reasonable time while the best existing SAT solvers, such as Zchaff and MiniSat, cannot. In particular, DiffSat can solve every instance of Bart benchmark suite in less than 0.03 s while Zchaff and MiniSat fail under a 900 s time limit. Furthermore, DiffSat even outperforms the outstanding incomplete algorithm DLM in some instances.

  19. Planning and decision making for aerial robots

    CERN Document Server

    Bestaoui Sebbane, Yasmina

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to the emerging field of planning and decision making for aerial robots. An aerial robot is the ultimate form of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, an aircraft endowed with built-in intelligence, requiring no direct human control and able to perform a specific task. It must be able to fly within a partially structured environment, to react and adapt to changing environmental conditions and to accommodate for the uncertainty that exists in the physical world. An aerial robot can be termed as a physical agent that exists and flies in the real 3D world, can sense its environment and act on it to achieve specific goals. So throughout this book, an aerial robot will also be termed as an agent.   Fundamental problems in aerial robotics include the tasks of spatial motion, spatial sensing and spatial reasoning. Reasoning in complex environments represents a difficult problem. The issues specific to spatial reasoning are planning and decision making. Planning deals with the trajectory algori...

  20. Between Policy-Making and Planning SEA and Strategic Decision-Making in the Danish Energy Sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyhne, Ivar

    2011-01-01

    This article deals with the challenge of approaching decision-making processes through strategic environmental assessment (SEA). It is argued that the interaction between policy-making and planning in strategic decision-making processes is a neglected reason for problems with applying SEA......, as legislation and guidance on SEA primarily approach either the policy or plan level. To substantiate the argument, the extent of interaction is empirically investigated. Four contemporary decision-making processes in the Danish energy sector are mapped as a series of choices. Fundamental changes...... with considerable environmental impacts are decided these years, often without preceding SEA processes. The mapping shows a profound interaction between policy-making and planning. In this interaction, public consultation, systematic environmental analyses, and transparency on alternatives are primarily related...

  1. Assessing ethical problem solving by reasoning rather than decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Tsuen-Chiuan; Harasym, Peter H; Coderre, Sylvain; McLaughlin, Kevin; Donnon, Tyrone

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of ethical problem solving in medicine has been controversial and challenging. The purposes of this study were: (i) to create a new instrument to measure doctors' decisions on and reasoning approach towards resolving ethical problems; (ii) to evaluate the scores generated by the new instrument for their reliability and validity, and (iii) to compare doctors' ethical reasoning abilities between countries and among medical students, residents and experts. This study used 15 clinical vignettes and the think-aloud method to identify the processes and components involved in ethical problem solving. Subjects included volunteer ethics experts, postgraduate Year 2 residents and pre-clerkship medical students. The interview data were coded using the instruments of the decision score and Ethical Reasoning Inventory (ERI). The ERI assessed the quality of ethical reasoning for a particular case (Part I) and for an individual globally across all the vignettes (Part II). There were 17 Canadian and 32 Taiwanese subjects. Based on the Canadian standard, the decision scores between Taiwanese and Canadian subjects differed significantly, but made no discrimination among the three levels of expertise. Scores on the ERI Parts I and II, which reflect doctors' reasoning quality, differed between countries and among different levels of expertise in Taiwan, providing evidence of construct validity. In addition, experts had a greater organised knowledge structure and considered more relevant variables in the process of arriving at ethical decisions than did residents or students. The reliability of ERI scores was 0.70-0.99 on Part I and 0.75-0.80 on Part II. Expertise in solving ethical problems could not be differentiated by the decisions made, but could be differentiated according to the reasoning used to make those decisions. The difference between Taiwanese and Canadian experts suggests that cultural considerations come into play in the decisions that are made in the

  2. Intelligent Aircraft Damage Assessment, Trajectory Planning, and Decision-Making under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Israel; Sarigul-Klijn, Nesrin

    Situational awareness and learning are necessary to identify and select the optimal set of mutually non-exclusive hypothesis in order to maximize mission performance and adapt system behavior accordingly. This paper presents a hierarchical and decentralized approach for integrated damage assessment and trajectory planning in aircraft with uncertain navigational decision-making. Aircraft navigation can be safely accomplished by properly addressing the following: decision-making, obstacle perception, aircraft state estimation, and aircraft control. When in-flight failures or damage occur, rapid and precise decision-making under imprecise information is required in order to regain and maintain control of the aircraft. To achieve planned aircraft trajectory and complete safe landing, the uncertainties in system dynamics of the damaged aircraft need to be learned and incorporated at the level of motion planning. The damaged aircraft is simulated via a simplified kinematic model. The different sources and perspectives of uncertainties in the damage assessment process and post-failure trajectory planning are presented and classified. The decision-making process for an emergency motion planning and landing is developed via the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The objective of the trajectory planning is to arrive at a target position while maximizing the safety of the aircraft given uncertain conditions. Simulations are presented for an emergency motion planning and landing that takes into account aircraft dynamics, path complexity, distance to landing site, runway characteristics, and subjective human decision.

  3. Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolen, Bas; Helsloot, Ira

    2014-07-01

    A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the 'top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  4. Fleet Planning Decision-Making: Two-Stage Optimization with Slot Purchase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lay Eng Teoh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Essentially, strategic fleet planning is vital for airlines to yield a higher profit margin while providing a desired service frequency to meet stochastic demand. In contrast to most studies that did not consider slot purchase which would affect the service frequency determination of airlines, this paper proposes a novel approach to solve the fleet planning problem subject to various operational constraints. A two-stage fleet planning model is formulated in which the first stage selects the individual operating route that requires slot purchase for network expansions while the second stage, in the form of probabilistic dynamic programming model, determines the quantity and type of aircraft (with the corresponding service frequency to meet the demand profitably. By analyzing an illustrative case study (with 38 international routes, the results show that the incorporation of slot purchase in fleet planning is beneficial to airlines in achieving economic and social sustainability. The developed model is practically viable for airlines not only to provide a better service quality (via a higher service frequency to meet more demand but also to obtain a higher revenue and profit margin, by making an optimal slot purchase and fleet planning decision throughout the long-term planning horizon.

  5. Green Decision Making: How Systemic Planning can support Strategic Decision Making for Sustainable Transport Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen

    for Strategic Management. The book was published in 2012 by Springer-Verlag, London, as a research monograph in the publisher’s series about Decision Engineering. The intention behind this new book – with its focus upon ‘greening’ of strategic decisions – is to provide a general and less technical description......The book is based on my participation in the SUSTAIN research project 2012-2017 about National Sustainable Transport Planning funded by the Danish Research Council (Innovationsfonden). Many of the issues treated here have a backdrop in my book Complex Strategic Choices – Applying Systemic Planning...... to this application area. In fact a company relocation decision case has been used to introduce the potential of SP as regards providing decision support for strategic decision making. A main concern in this presentation of SP, which deviates from the Springer book referred to above, is to highlight that ‘greening...

  6. The WIPP decision plan: Charting the course for openness in the decision making process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagers, J.

    1992-01-01

    In June of 1989, the Secretary of Energy requested that a plan be developed that would clearly outline the prerequisites to opening the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). It was to provide the basis for a decision making process that was not only visible to the public, but one which included public participation. It must also be dynamic enough to effectively deal with the changing legislative, regulatory, and technical environments. Based on a recognized need for openness, the Secretary's Draft Decision Plan was developed. The plan charted the course for ultimately making the decision to declare WIPP ready to receive waste for the start of test phase operations. It outlined to critics and supporters alike the rigorous and thorough process by which the internal decisions were made. The plan identified all internal prerequisites to the decision; charted the review cycles, and targeted the completion dates. It also outlined the processes outside the control of the Department, institutional issues, such as legislative land withdrawal, issuance of permits, and designation of transportation routes

  7. The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making: An Exploratory ... lead to the failure to achieve projected performance. ... the use of multiple regression analysis model to forecast the stock market activities of each sector ... making, and that these decisions must be congruent with the company strategy.

  8. Effects of Information Retrieval Process on Decision Making and Problem Solving: An Emprical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burcu Keten

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Individuals who are unaware of a need for information and/or who have not experienced the information retrieval process while meeting such a need cannot be a part of information society. Only those individuals with an awareness that information is essential to the problem-solving and decision-making processes, who are equipped with information retrieval and utilization skills and who can further integrate such skills into their daily lives, can be a part of an information society and attain the capability of performing properly in their societal roles and thus ultimately of shaping their society. Moving from this context, this article defines the elements of the information retrieval process, starting with the concept of information, and studies the influences of the information retrieval process on problem solving and decision making.

  9. Student Debt, Problem-Solving, and Decision-Making of Adult Learners: A Basic Qualitative Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, William J.

    2013-01-01

    A basic qualitative research study was conducted to develop insights into how adult learners employ problem-solving and decision-making (PSDM), when considering college financing, student loans, and student debt. Using the social media Website Facebook, eight qualified participants were recruited. Participants were interviewed via telephone, and…

  10. Intelligent decision-making models for production and retail operations

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Zhaoxia

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an overview of intelligent decision-making techniques and discusses their application in production and retail operations. Manufacturing and retail enterprises have stringent standards for using advanced and reliable techniques to improve decision-making processes, since these processes have significant effects on the performance of relevant operations and the entire supply chain. In recent years, researchers have been increasingly focusing attention on using intelligent techniques to solve various decision-making problems. The opening chapters provide an introduction to several commonly used intelligent techniques, such as genetic algorithm, harmony search, neural network and extreme learning machine. The book then explores the use of these techniques for handling various production and retail decision-making problems, such as production planning and scheduling, assembly line balancing, and sales forecasting.

  11. Breast compression – An exploration of problem solving and decision-making in mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nightingale, J.M.; Murphy, F.J.; Robinson, L.; Newton-Hughes, A.; Hogg, P.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Breast compression decreases radiation dose and reduces potential for motion and geometric unsharpness, yet there is variability in applied compression force within and between some centres. This article explores the problem solving process applied to the application of breast compression force from the mammography practitioners' perspective. Methods: A qualitative analysis was undertaken using an existing full data set of transcribed qualitative data collected in a phenomenological study of mammography practitioner values, behaviours and beliefs. The data emerged from focus groups conducted at six NHS breast screening centres in England (participant n = 41), and semi-structured interviews with mammography educators (n = 6). A researcher followed a thematic content analysis process to extract data related to mammography compression problem solving, developing a series of categories, themes and sub-themes. Emerging themes were then peer-validated by two other researchers, and developed into a model of practice. Results: Seven consecutive stages contributed towards compression force problem solving: assessing the request; first impressions; explanations and consent; handling the breast and positioning; applying compression force; final adjustments; feedback. The model captures information gathering, problem framing, problem solving and decision making which inform an ‘ideal’ compression scenario. Behavioural problem solving, heuristics and intuitive decision making are reflected within this model. Conclusion: The application of compression should no longer be considered as one single task within mammography, but is now recognised as a seven stage problem solving continuum. This continuum model is the first to be applied to mammography, and is adaptable and transferable to other radiography practice settings. - Highlights: • Mammography compression should no longer be considered as one single examination task. • A seven stage breast

  12. Designing for Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  13. A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John eFox

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making behaviour is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualisation of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem-solving, planning and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuro-psychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering.

  14. A Canonical Theory of Dynamic Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P.; Glasspool, David W.

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering. PMID:23565100

  15. Dual worth trade-off method and its application for solving multiple criteria decision making problems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Feng Junwen

    2006-01-01

    To overcome the limitations of the traditional surrogate worth trade-off (SWT) method and solve the multiple criteria decision making problem more efficiently and interactively, a new method labeled dual worth trade-off (DWT) method is proposed. The DWT method dynamically uses the duality theory related to the multiple criteria decision making problem and analytic hierarchy process technique to obtain the decision maker's solution preference information and finally find the satisfactory compromise solution of the decision maker. Through the interactive process between the analyst and the decision maker, trade-off information is solicited and treated properly, the representative subset of efficient solutions and the satisfactory solution to the problem are found. The implementation procedure for the DWT method is presented. The effectiveness and applicability of the DWT method are shown by a practical case study in the field of production scheduling.

  16. Optimizing perioperative decision making: improved information for clinical workflow planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doebbeling, Bradley N; Burton, Matthew M; Wiebke, Eric A; Miller, Spencer; Baxter, Laurence; Miller, Donald; Alvarez, Jorge; Pekny, Joseph

    2012-01-01

    Perioperative care is complex and involves multiple interconnected subsystems. Delayed starts, prolonged cases and overtime are common. Surgical procedures account for 40-70% of hospital revenues and 30-40% of total costs. Most planning and scheduling in healthcare is done without modern planning tools, which have potential for improving access by assisting in operations planning support. We identified key planning scenarios of interest to perioperative leaders, in order to examine the feasibility of applying combinatorial optimization software solving some of those planning issues in the operative setting. Perioperative leaders desire a broad range of tools for planning and assessing alternate solutions. Our modeled solutions generated feasible solutions that varied as expected, based on resource and policy assumptions and found better utilization of scarce resources. Combinatorial optimization modeling can effectively evaluate alternatives to support key decisions for planning clinical workflow and improving care efficiency and satisfaction.

  17. Male Involvement in Family Planning Decision Making in Ile-Ife ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Erah

    spousal communication, and investigated the correlates of men's opinion in family planning decision making in ... questionnaire to collect information from 402 male study participants. ..... who attained post-secondary education were more.

  18. Support for decision making and problem solving in abnormal conditions in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.; Humphreys, P.

    1985-01-01

    Under abnormal plant condition effective decision support has to take into account the operator's or other decision maker's mental model of the plant, derived from operating experience. This will be different from the engineering model incorporated in Disturbance Analysis Systems. Recently developed approaches for gaining access to the structure of this mental model provided the basis for the development of an interactive computer system capable of representing and exploring expert knowledge concerning inferences about causal patterns, starting from the information available to the operator in the control room. This system has potential application as an interactive diagnostic aid in support of decision making and problem solving during abnormal conditions. (Auth.)

  19. Risky Group Decision-Making Method for Distribution Grid Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cunbin; Yuan, Jiahang; Qi, Zhiqiang

    2015-12-01

    With rapid speed on electricity using and increasing in renewable energy, more and more research pay attention on distribution grid planning. For the drawbacks of existing research, this paper proposes a new risky group decision-making method for distribution grid planning. Firstly, a mixing index system with qualitative and quantitative indices is built. On the basis of considering the fuzziness of language evaluation, choose cloud model to realize "quantitative to qualitative" transformation and construct interval numbers decision matrices according to the "3En" principle. An m-dimensional interval numbers decision vector is regarded as super cuboids in m-dimensional attributes space, using two-level orthogonal experiment to arrange points uniformly and dispersedly. The numbers of points are assured by testing numbers of two-level orthogonal arrays and these points compose of distribution points set to stand for decision-making project. In order to eliminate the influence of correlation among indices, Mahalanobis distance is used to calculate the distance from each solutions to others which means that dynamic solutions are viewed as the reference. Secondly, due to the decision-maker's attitude can affect the results, this paper defines the prospect value function based on SNR which is from Mahalanobis-Taguchi system and attains the comprehensive prospect value of each program as well as the order. At last, the validity and reliability of this method is illustrated by examples which prove the method is more valuable and superiority than the other.

  20. The Effectiveness of the Training of Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Skills on the Reduction of Addicts’ Positive Attitudes to Narcotics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farxaneh Bahrami

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of the training of problem-solving and decision-making skills on the reduction of addicts’ positive attitudes to narcotics. Method: The design of this study was experimental design namely: pre and post test with control group. The population included all addicts referring to Sanandaj self-report centers (500 addicts. By random sampling, 60 addicts were selected and completed the attitude questionnaire to narcotics use. Each of experimental groups was under problem-solving and decision-making skills training for ten 90 minute sessions. No training given to control group. Results: After training, two experimental groups significantly had lower levels of positive attitude to narcotics use. No difference was observed between two experimental groups. Conclusion: The results of this study indicated that the training of problem-solving and decision-making skills can reduce the addicts’ positive attitudes to narcotics.

  1. [Decision making in cariology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van

    2003-01-01

    By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the

  2. A proposal of group decision making procedure for supporting social consensus making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimizu, Yoshiaki

    1996-01-01

    Being interested in supporting social consensus making, in this paper, we have proposed a group decision making procedure through conflict resolution in the following situation: each group has a different privilege with decision making; the final goal should be evaluated by a few qualitative sub-goals besides quantitative ones. For this purpose, we have developed a step-wise procedure that has been popularly adapted when encountered with complicated and large-scale problem-solving. As well as at the value system design phase, we applied the analytic hierarchy process, AHP to decide weights standing for the privilege at the decision making phase. Then, after rearranging the hierarchy of the sub-goals depending on the nature, we have provided an iterative procedure to derive a final solution from a discrete optimization problem. To reduce the difficulties of multi-objective decision making thereat, we took a scoring method for total evaluation and applied the genetic algorithm as a solution method. Through numerical experiments applied to a planning problem of the radioactive waste management system, we have shown numerically the proposed approach is very promising for social consensus making. (author)

  3. Business making decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

  4. Maintenance planning support method for nuclear power plants based on collective decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimizu, Shunichi; Sakurai, Shoji; Takaoka, Kazushi; Kanemoto, Shigeru; Fukutomi, Shigeki

    1992-01-01

    Inspection and maintenance planning in nuclear power plants is conducted by decision making based on experts' collective consensus. However, since a great deal of time and effort is required to reach a consensus among expert judgments, the establishment of effective decision making methods is necessary. Therefore, the authors developed a method for supporting collective decision making, based on a combination of three types of decision making methods; the Characteristic Diagram method, Interpretative Structural Modeling method, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. The proposed method enables us to determine the evaluation criteria systematically for collective decision making, and also allows extracting collective decisions using simplified questionnaires. The proposed method can support reaching a consensus of groups effectively through the evaluation of collective decision structural models and their characteristics. In this paper, the effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated through its application to the decision making problem concerning whether or not the improved ultrasonic testing equipment should be adopted at nuclear power plants. (author)

  5. Markov decision processes: a tool for sequential decision making under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alagoz, Oguzhan; Hsu, Heather; Schaefer, Andrew J; Roberts, Mark S

    2010-01-01

    We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions.

  6. Solving complex maintenance planning optimization problems using stochastic simulation and multi-criteria fuzzy decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tahvili, Sahar; Österberg, Jonas; Silvestrov, Sergei; Biteus, Jonas

    2014-01-01

    One of the most important factors in the operations of many cooperations today is to maximize profit and one important tool to that effect is the optimization of maintenance activities. Maintenance activities is at the largest level divided into two major areas, corrective maintenance (CM) and preventive maintenance (PM). When optimizing maintenance activities, by a maintenance plan or policy, we seek to find the best activities to perform at each point in time, be it PM or CM. We explore the use of stochastic simulation, genetic algorithms and other tools for solving complex maintenance planning optimization problems in terms of a suggested framework model based on discrete event simulation

  7. Solving complex maintenance planning optimization problems using stochastic simulation and multi-criteria fuzzy decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tahvili, Sahar [Mälardalen University (Sweden); Österberg, Jonas; Silvestrov, Sergei [Division of Applied Mathematics, Mälardalen University (Sweden); Biteus, Jonas [Scania CV (Sweden)

    2014-12-10

    One of the most important factors in the operations of many cooperations today is to maximize profit and one important tool to that effect is the optimization of maintenance activities. Maintenance activities is at the largest level divided into two major areas, corrective maintenance (CM) and preventive maintenance (PM). When optimizing maintenance activities, by a maintenance plan or policy, we seek to find the best activities to perform at each point in time, be it PM or CM. We explore the use of stochastic simulation, genetic algorithms and other tools for solving complex maintenance planning optimization problems in terms of a suggested framework model based on discrete event simulation.

  8. Using M and S to Improve Human Decision Making and Achieve Effective Problem Solving in an International Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christie, Vanessa L.; Landess, David J.

    2012-01-01

    In the international arena, decision makers are often swayed away from fact-based analysis by their own individual cultural and political bias. Modeling and Simulation-based training can raise awareness of individual predisposition and improve the quality of decision making by focusing solely on fact vice perception. This improved decision making methodology will support the multinational collaborative efforts of military and civilian leaders to solve challenges more effectively. The intent of this experimental research is to create a framework that allows decision makers to "come to the table" with the latest and most significant facts necessary to determine an appropriate solution for any given contingency.

  9. Complex Strategic Choices Applying Systemic Planning for Strategic Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    Effective decision making requires a clear methodology, particularly in a complex world of globalisation. Institutions and companies in all disciplines and sectors are faced with increasingly multi-faceted areas of uncertainty which cannot always be effectively handled by traditional strategies. Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision making to face the many current challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value to strategic decision making, Complex Strategic Choices presents a methodology which is further illustrated by a number of case studies and example applications. Dr. Techn. Steen Leleur has adapted previously established research based on feedback and input from various conferences, journals and students resulting in new material stemming from and focusing on practical application of a systemic approach. The outcome is a coher...

  10. Lexical Complexity of Decision-Making Writing Tasks: Form-focused Guided Strategic Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Mahdavirad

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The present study is an attempt to investigate the effect of form-focused guided strategic planning on lexical complexity of learners’ performance in writing tasks. The twenty intermediate level participants of the study performed an unplanned and then a planned decision-making task. In the planned task condition, the participants were provided with form-focused guided strategic planning which contained detailed instructions about how to plan, by being instructed to focus on form. The guidance included an explanation of the necessary structural and lexical patterns employed to express the learners’ views while developing a comparison-and-contrast paragraph in each task. The results of the statistical analysis indicated that the participants produced a written product with a greater lexical complexity in their performance of the task in the form-focused strategic planning condition. The findings emphasize the importance of guided strategic planning as a task condition in syllabus design for task-based language teaching and the necessity of incorporating this task feature for accomplishing lexical complexity in decision-making writing tasks.

  11. Male Involvement in Family Planning Decision Making in Ile-Ife ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study assessed men's awareness, attitude, and practice of modern contraceptive methods, determined the level of spousal communication, and investigated the correlates of men's opinion in family planning decision making in Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Quantitative methodology was employed in this cross-sectional descriptive ...

  12. Applications of decision theory to test-based decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    1987-01-01

    The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be

  13. Feasibility of preference-driven radiotherapy dose treatment planning to support shared decision making in anal cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rønde, Heidi S; Wee, Leonard; Pløen, John

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE: Chemo-radiotherapy is an established primary curative treatment for anal cancer, but clinically equal rationale for different target doses exists. If joint preferences (physician and patient) are used to determine acceptable tradeoffs in radiotherapy treatment planning, multipl...... that preference-informed dose planning is feasible for clinical studies utilizing shared decision making....... dose plans must be simultaneously explored. We quantified the degree to which different toxicity priorities might be incorporated into treatment plan selection, to elucidate the feasible decision space for shared decision making in anal cancer radiotherapy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective plans.......7%-points; (0.3; 30.6); p decision space available in anal cancer radiotherapy to incorporate preferences, although tradeoffs are highly patient-dependent. This study demonstrates...

  14. A note on “An alternative multiple attribute decision making methodology for solving optimal facility layout design selection problems”

    OpenAIRE

    R. Venkata Rao

    2012-01-01

    A paper published by Maniya and Bhatt (2011) (An alternative multiple attribute decision making methodology for solving optimal facility layout design selection problems, Computers & Industrial Engineering, 61, 542-549) proposed an alternative multiple attribute decision making method named as “Preference Selection Index (PSI) method” for selection of an optimal facility layout design. The authors had claimed that the method was logical and more appropriate and the method gives directly the o...

  15. ANALYSIS OF STUDENTS’ DECISION MAKING TO SOLVE SCIENCE REASONING TEST OF TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE STUDY (TIMSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Novianawati

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine students’ decision making strategy to answer TIMSS science reasoning test in cognitive reasoning domain. This research is quantitative descriptive research. The result shows that students tend to use compensatory strategy for decision making in solving multiple-choice questions and use rational category to answer essay questions. The result shows that more than half of students have been able to answer the questions TIMSS science tests correctly.

  16. Learning to Make Decisions Through Constructive Controversy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tjosvold, Dean

    Students must make decisions about their lifestyle, future careers, academic pursuits, and classroom and school issues. Learning to make effective decisions for themselves and for society is an important aspect of competence. They can learn decision making through interacting and solving problems with others. A central ingredient for successful…

  17. A simple tool to help decision making in infrastructure planning and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2006-10-04

    Oct 4, 2006 ... a tool to help decision making for planning and management of phytotreatment ... mental studies aimed at the quantitative estimation of biologi- cal processes .... water has been simulated with a logistic model assuming an.

  18. The manual of strategic economic decision making using Bayesian belief networks to solve complex problems

    CERN Document Server

    Grover, Jeff

    2016-01-01

    This book is an extension of the author’s first book and serves as a guide and manual on how to specify and compute 2-, 3-, & 4-Event Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). It walks the learner through the steps of fitting and solving fifty BBN numerically, using mathematical proof. The author wrote this book primarily for naïve learners and professionals, with a proof-based academic rigor. The author's first book on this topic, a primer introducing learners to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes’ theory and inverse probability for the first time, was meant for non-statisticians unfamiliar with the theorem - as is this book. This new book expands upon that approach and is meant to be a prescriptive guide for building BBN and executive decision-making for students and professionals; intended so that decision-makers can invest their time and start using this inductive reasoning principle in their decision-making processes. It highlights the utility of an algorithm that served as ...

  19. Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodhouse, C. A.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.; Garfin, G. M.; Scott, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    As society is confronted with population growth, limited resources, and the impacts of climate variability and change, it is vital that institutions of higher education promote the development of professionals who can work with decision-makers to incorporate scientific information into environmental planning and management. Skills for the communication of science are essential, but equally important is the ability to understand decision-making contexts and engage with resource managers and policy makers. It is increasingly being recognized that people who understand the linkages between science and decision making are crucial if science is to better support planning and policy. A new graduate-level seminar, "Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making," is a core course for a new post-baccalaureate certificate program, Connecting Environmental Science and Decision Making at the University of Arizona. The goal of the course is to provide students with a basic understanding of the dynamics between scientists and decision makers that result in scientific information being incorporated into environmental planning, policy, and management decisions. Through readings from the environmental and social sciences, policy, and planning literature, the course explores concepts including scientific information supply and demand, boundary organizations, co-production of knowledge, platforms for engagement, and knowledge networks. Visiting speakers help students understand some of the challenges of incorporating scientific information into planning and decision making within institutional and political contexts. The course also includes practical aspects of two-way communication via written, oral, and graphical presentations as well as through the interview process to facilitate the transfer of scientific information to decision makers as well as to broader audiences. We aspire to help students develop techniques that improve communication and

  20. Managerial Decision Making in Traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor Perić

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making is defined as a selection of a certain actionamong several alternatives. It is the essence of planning, asin the managerial sense there is no plan until a decision of engagementof resources, reputation and direction of activities ismade. Decision-making is, in fact, only a step in planning, evenwhen it is performed quickly and without special consideration.It is what we all experience every day. It is one of the most fascinatingbiological activities and the subject of frightening implicationsfor the whole human race. Since various techniques improvethe system and the quality of managerial decision-making,they are classified into three assumptions: risk analysis, decision-making trees, and the theory of revealed preference. Allof these are based on the interaction of a certain number of importantvariables out of which many contain the elements ofuncertainty, but maybe also high level of probability.

  1. The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Decision-Making Style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Nimon, Kim

    2008-01-01

    This research examines changes in decision-making styles as a result of participation in scenario planning. A quasi-experimental pretest-posttest design and several nonparametric tests were used to analyze data gathered from research participants in a technology firm in the Northeastern United States. Results show that participants tend to…

  2. Lexical Complexity of Decision-Making Writing Tasks: Form-focused Guided Strategic Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Mahdavirad, Fatemeh

    2016-01-01

    The present study is an attempt to investigate the effect of form-focused guided strategic planning on lexical complexity of learners’ performance in writing tasks. The twenty intermediate level participants of the study performed an unplanned and then a planned decision-making task. In the planned task condition, the participants were provided with form-focused guided strategic planning which contained detailed instructions about how to plan, by being instructed to focus on form. The guidanc...

  3. Development and evaluation of learning module on clinical decision-making in Prosthodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshpande, Saee; Lambade, Dipti; Chahande, Jayashree

    2015-01-01

    Best practice strategies for helping students learn the reasoning skills of problem solving and critical thinking (CT) remain a source of conjecture, particularly with regard to CT. The dental education literature is fundamentally devoid of research on the cognitive components of clinical decision-making. This study was aimed to develop and evaluate the impact of blended learning module on clinical decision-making skills of dental graduates for planning prosthodontics rehabilitation. An interactive teaching module consisting of didactic lectures on clinical decision-making and a computer-assisted case-based treatment planning software was developed Its impact on cognitive knowledge gain in clinical decision-making was evaluated using an assessment involving problem-based multiple choice questions and paper-based case scenarios. Mean test scores were: Pretest (17 ± 1), posttest 1 (21 ± 2) and posttest 2 (43 ± 3). Comparison of mean scores was done with one-way ANOVA test. There was overall significant difference in between mean scores at all the three points (P posttest 1 > pretest. Blended teaching methods employing didactic lectures on the clinical decision-making as well as computer assisted case-based learning can be used to improve quality of clinical decision-making in prosthodontic rehabilitation for dental graduates.

  4. Tools for collaborative decision-making

    CERN Document Server

    Zaraté, Pascale

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called "collaborative decision-making", at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several ...

  5. Decision-making under risk and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatev, G.I.

    2006-01-01

    Fuzzy sets and interval analysis tools to make computations and solve optimisation problems are presented. Fuzzy and interval extensions of Decision Theory criteria for decision-making under parametric uncertainty of prior information (probabilities, payoffs) are developed. An interval probability approach to the mean-value criterion is proposed. (author)

  6. Decision Making: Rational, Nonrational, and Irrational.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Herbert A.

    1993-01-01

    Describes the current state of knowledge about human decision-making and problem-solving processes, explaining recent developments and their implications for management and management training. Rational goal-setting is the key to effective decision making and accomplishment. Bounded rationality is a realistic orientation, because the world is too…

  7. Role of Advance Care Planning in Proxy Decision Making Among Individuals With Dementia and Their Family Caregivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Jung; De Larwelle, Jessica A; Valuch, Katharine O'Connell; Kesler, Toni

    2016-01-01

    Health care proxies make important end-of-life decisions for individuals with dementia. A cross-sectional survey was conducted to examine the role of advance care planning in proxy decision making for 141 individuals with cognitive impairment, Alzheimer's disease, or other types of dementia. Proxies who did not know the preferences of individuals with dementia for life support treatments reported greater understanding of their values. Proxies of individuals with dementia who did not want life support treatments anticipated receiving less support and were more uncertain in decision making. The greater knowledge proxies had about dementia trajectory, family support, and trust of physicians, the more informed, clearer, and less uncertain they were in decision making. In addition to advance care planning, multiple factors influence proxy decision making, which should be considered in developing interventions and future research to support informed decision making for individuals with dementia and their families. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  8. Pre-planned versus unplanned decision making in the case of environmental decontamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paschoa, A.S.; Tranjan Filho, A.

    2000-01-01

    Until a few years ago it was not usual to pre-plan realistic countermeasures directly related to a radiological emergency or a nuclear accident (RENA), mostly because the probability of occurrence of such events was considered to be too low for real concern. The Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Goiania accidents, however, changed long accepted views of the decision making community throughout the world. Today, meetings are being held just to discuss how one can go about making decisions to face the problems that may occur in a number of RENAs. The present work will examine several well established scientifically based radiological criteria to be used in decision making processes concerning either radioactive decontamination following a severe RENA, or decommissioning procedures. Such criteria can certainly be used to select pre-planned countermeasures, but can also be helpful as guidance to decision makers when facing a choice of untested and unplanned options. Selected advantages and disadvantages of each criterion based option will be presented and briefly discussed, as, for example, the amount of radioactive waste produced vis-B-vis the risk (concentration or projected dose) level adopted in the decontamination procedures. In addition, non-scientific aspects will be brought into the discussion, because their social, economical, and political implications cannot be ignored by responsible decision makers. Uncertainties associated with both non-scientific aspects and scientifically based environmental and dosimetric models will also be examined for specific cases. (author)

  9. Improvements to Strategic Planning and Implementation through Enhanced Correlation with Decision-Making Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCready, John W.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine use of decision-making tools and feedback in strategic planning in order to develop a rigorous process that would promote the efficiency of strategic planning for acquisitions in the United States Coast Guard (USCG). Strategic planning is critical to agencies such as the USCG in order to be effective…

  10. Thinking about the patient's wishes: practical wisdom of discharge planning nurses in assisting surrogate decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kageyama, Yoko; Asano, Midori

    2017-12-01

    The accelerating trend towards shorter hospital stays in Japan has made modes of decision-making essential for effective patient transition from the hospital to recuperation in the regional community, and the ageing of the population has brought a rise in surrogate decision-making by the families of patients lacking decision-making ('self-decision') capacity. To verbalise and elucidate the practical wisdom of discharge planning nurses by focusing on the perceptions and judgements, they apply in practice and describing their methodology in concrete terms. Participants were six discharge planning nurses and one person with previous experience as a discharge planning nurse, all working at discharge planning departments of acute care hospitals. Separate, semi-structured, interactive interviews were conducted with each participant. The study design was qualitative descriptive in form with qualitative content analysis. All participants provided written informed consent to participate in the study, which was approved by the study institution. Three concepts were extracted as the basis for discharge planning nurses' perception and judgement at acute care hospitals: working for mutual envisionment of the available postdischarge options; helping the family act as spokesperson(s) for the patient's wishes; and understanding the family inclusive of the patient as a relationship of strongly interaffecting interests. The practical wisdom of the nurse, working in mutual envisionment with the family, and collaborative decision-making through discussion with those who know the patient, leads to rational discharge assistance. © 2017 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  11. Rough multiple objective decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Jiuping

    2011-01-01

    Rough Set TheoryBasic concepts and properties of rough sets Rough Membership Rough Intervals Rough FunctionApplications of Rough SetsMultiple Objective Rough Decision Making Reverse Logistics Problem with Rough Interval Parameters MODM based Rough Approximation for Feasible RegionEVRMCCRMDCRM Reverse Logistics Network Design Problem of Suji Renewable Resource MarketBilevel Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Hierarchical Supply Chain Planning Problem with Rough Interval Parameters Bilevel Decision Making ModelBL-EVRM BL-CCRMBL-DCRMApplication to Supply Chain Planning of Mianyang Co., LtdStochastic Multiple Objective Rough Decision Multi-Objective Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling UnderRough Random EnvironmentRandom Variable Stochastic EVRM Stochastic CCRM Stochastic DCRM Multi-Objective rc-PSP/mM/Ro-Ra for Longtan Hydropower StationFuzzy Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Allocation Problem under Fuzzy Environment Fuzzy Variable Fu-EVRM Fu-CCRM Fu-DCRM Earth-Rock Work Allocation Problem.

  12. The effect of problem solving and decision making skills on tendency to depression and anxiety in patients with type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abazarian, Elaheh; Baboli, M Teimourzadeh; Abazarian, Elham; Ghashghaei, F Esteki

    2015-01-01

    Diabetes is the most prevalent disease that has involved 177 million people all over the world and, due to this, these patients suffer from depression and anxiety and they should use special methods for controlling the same. The aim of this research is the study of the effect of problem solving and decision making skill on the rate of the tendency to depression and anxiety. This research is a quasi-experimental (case-control) study. Statistically, the population of the present study was all diabetic patients of Qaemshahr who were controlled by physicians in 2011-2012. Thirty files were selected randomly from them and divided into two 15 patients' groups (control and subject group) randomly. The measurement tools were Back depression inventory (21 items) and Zank anxiety questionnaire that were distributed among two groups. Then, the subject group participated in eight sessions of teaching problem solving and decision making courses separately, and the second group (control group) did not receive any instruction. Finally, both groups had passed post-test and the data obtained from the questionnaires were studied by variance analysis statistical methods. The results showed that teaching problem solving and decision making skills was very effective in reducing diabetic patients' depression and anxiety and resulted in reducing their depression and anxiety.

  13. [The relationship between career decision-making self efficacy and anxiety].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Chen; Cai, Yun; Liu, Jia; Shan, Dan; Zhou, Xia

    2012-03-01

    The purpose of the paper is to examine the relationship among Career Decision-Making Self Efficacy, existential anxiety and anxiety in the sample of college students during the professional choice. Data on The Revised Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy-Shot Form, Existential Anxiety Scale (EAS), SCL-90 and self-identity status were collected and analyzed on a sample of 500 college students. 201 rural students' career decision making self-efficacy scores were as follows: self-appraisal (12.58 ± 3.48), occupational information (12.07 ± 3.05), goal selection (12.48 ± 3.51), planning (12.17 ± 3.10), problem solving (9.75 ± 2.38), all scores were lower than urban students, the difference was statistically significant (P guilt anxiety (13.72 ± 2.38), alienation and loneliness anxiety (16.82 ± 2.51), all scores are higher than urban students, the difference was statistically significant (P decision making self-efficacy. There is a significant positive correlation between anxiety and existential anxiety. There exists a significant negative correlation among factors of student and career decision making self-efficacy and anxiety. Meaningless and emptiness anxiety on career decision making self-efficacy are significant predictors. There is negative correlation among existential anxiety, occupational information and anxiety during the professional choice.

  14. Equilibrium Design Based on Design Thinking Solving: An Integrated Multicriteria Decision-Making Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Xiong Feng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A multicriteria decision-making model was proposed in order to acquire the optimum one among different product design schemes. VIKOR method was introduced to compute the ranking value of each scheme. A multiobjective optimization model for criteria weight was established. In this model, projection pursuit method was employed to identify a criteria weight set which could keep classification information of original schemes to the greatest extent, while PROMETHEE II was adopted to keep sorting information. Dominance based multiobjective simulated annealing algorithm (D-MOSA was introduced to solve the optimization model. Finally, an example was taken to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of this model.

  15. Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Andreas; Golovin, Daniel; Converse, Sarah J.

    2015-01-01

    Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

  16. Being safe: making the decision to have a planned home birth in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lothian, Judith A

    2013-01-01

    Although there is evidence that supports the safety of planned home birth for healthy women, less than 1 percent of women in the United States choose to have their baby at home. An ethnographic study of the experience of planned home birth provided rich descriptions of women's experiences planning, preparing for, and having a home birth.This article describes findings related to how women make the decision to have a planned home birth. For these women, being safe emerged as central in making the decision. For them, being safe included four factors: avoiding technological birth interventions, knowing the midwife and the midwife knowing them, feeling comfortable and protected at home, and knowing that backup hospital medical care was accessible if needed.

  17. Male involvement in family planning decision making in sub-Saharan Africa- what the evidence suggests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vouking, Marius Zambou; Evina, Christine Danielle; Tadenfok, Carine Nouboudem

    2014-01-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated in 2012 that 287,000 maternal deaths occurred in 2010; sub-Saharan Africa (56%) and Southern Asia (29%) accounted for the global burden of maternal deaths. Men are also recognized to be responsible for the large proportion of ill reproductive health suffered by their female partners. Male involvement helps not only in accepting a contraceptive but also in its effective use and continuation. The objectives were to assess men's knowledge, attitude, and practice of modern contraceptive methods; determine the level of spousal communication about family planning decision making; and investigate the correlates of men's opinion about their roles in family planning decision making. We searched the following electronic databases from January 1995 to December 2013: Medline, Embase, CINAHL, LILAS, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, Social Services Abstracts, and Sociological Abstracts. Along with MeSH terms and relevant keywords, we used the Cochrane Highly Sensitive Search Strategy for identifying reports of articles in PubMed. There were no restrictions to language or publication status. Of 137 hits, 7 papers met the inclusion criteria. The concept of family planning was well known to men. In the Nigerian study, almost (99%) men were aware of the existence of modern contraceptives, and most of them were aware of at least two modern methods. Awareness of the condom was highest (98%). In the Malawi study, all of the participants reported that they were not using contraception before the intervention. In Ethiopia, above 90% of male respondents have supported and approved using and choosing family planning methods, but none of them practiced terminal methods. Generally, more male respondents disagreed than agreed that men should make decisions about selected family planning issues in the family. Decision-making dynamics around method choice followed a slightly different pattern. According to female participants

  18. The effect of problem solving and decision making skills on tendency to depression and anxiety in patients with type 2 diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaheh Abazarian

    2015-01-01

    Conclusion: The results showed that teaching problem solving and decision making skills was very effective in reducing diabetic patients′ depression and anxiety and resulted in reducing their depression and anxiety.

  19. Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2011-01-01

    management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed......Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... barriers to integration of climate risks and adaptive responses in energy planning and decision making. Both detailed assessments of the costs and benefits of integrating adaptation measures and rougher ‘order of magnitude’ estimates would enhance awareness raising and momentum for action....

  20. A Methodology to Support Decision Making in Flood Plan Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biscarini, C.; di Francesco, S.; Manciola, P.

    2009-04-01

    The focus of the present document is on specific decision-making aspects of flood risk analysis. A flood is the result of runoff from rainfall in quantities too great to be confined in the low-water channels of streams. Little can be done to prevent a major flood, but we may be able to minimize damage within the flood plain of the river. This broad definition encompasses many possible mitigation measures. Floodplain management considers the integrated view of all engineering, nonstructural, and administrative measures for managing (minimizing) losses due to flooding on a comprehensive scale. The structural measures are the flood-control facilities designed according to flood characteristics and they include reservoirs, diversions, levees or dikes, and channel modifications. Flood-control measures that modify the damage susceptibility of floodplains are usually referred to as nonstructural measures and may require minor engineering works. On the other hand, those measures designed to modify the damage potential of permanent facilities are called non-structural and allow reducing potential damage during a flood event. Technical information is required to support the tasks of problem definition, plan formulation, and plan evaluation. The specific information needed and the related level of detail are dependent on the nature of the problem, the potential solutions, and the sensitivity of the findings to the basic information. Actions performed to set up and lay out the study are preliminary to the detailed analysis. They include: defining the study scope and detail, the field data collection, a review of previous studies and reports, and the assembly of needed maps and surveys. Risk analysis can be viewed as having many components: risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Risk assessment comprises an analysis of the technical aspects of the problem, risk communication deals with conveying the information and risk management involves the decision process

  1. Business plans in bank decision-making when financing new ventures in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Pretorius

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the position that South African commercial banks adopt when evaluating an application for finance of new business ventures. The role and importance of the business plan in the decision-making process is highlighted and investigated. This article begins to qualitatively describe the decision-making processes, criteria and processes instituted by the four major South African commercial banks that between them serve 96 per cent of the banking services for small business. It then questions the barriers placed on applicants applying for finance and recommends how these barriers can be removed. The article concludes that banks finance business ventures with poor potential for success if the applicant is creditworthy or has the necessary security rather than assist applicants with good plans and ventures with potential, but lacking sufficient security.

  2. The use of condition monitoring information for maintenance planning and decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laakso, K.; Rosqvist, T. [VTT Industrial Systems (Finland); Paulsen, J.L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    2002-12-01

    A survey is presented outlining the use of condition monitoring information in three Nordic nuclear power plants. The questions of the survey relate to the role of condition monitoring in strategic, as well as operative, maintenance planning and decision-making. The survey indicates that condition monitoring is increasingly implemented at nuclear power plants, but very selectively and in a rather slow pace for predictive maintenance. A combined strategy of condition based maintenance and predetermined preventive maintenance is applied for important equipment such as main circulation pumps and steam turbines. A realistic aim is to reduce the number of costly or error prone maintenance and disassembling inspection activities by condition monitoring given that the approach enables a good diagnosis and prediction. Systematic follow-up and analysis of such condition monitoring information followed by a case-specific planning and decision making of timely and rightly directed maintenance actions can justify an extension of the intervals of a number of predetermined inspection, maintenance or periodic testing tasks. (au)

  3. Client Satisfaction And Decision Making Amongst Females Visiting Family Planning Clinics In Hyderabad, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Memon, Arbia; Hamid, Saima; Kumar, Ramesh

    2017-01-01

    Family Planning is the basic right of the human being. It involves decision regarding the number of children and desired space between children by the couple themselves. Quality services involving multiple dimensions build the confidence of the clients and lack of quality is one of the constraints behind incomplete coverage of family planning. Objectives of the current study were to determine the client satisfaction, decision-making process and various influences on clients in adopting family planning methods. This cross-sectional study was conducted at Family Planning Centre of Liaquat University Hospital, Hyderabad in 2016. Quality of the family planning services and satisfaction with the services were assessed through responses obtained from women selected purposively and visiting family planning centre through exit interviews with structured pretested and reliable questionnaire after taking the written consent. Access to Family Planning Centre was not an issue in 92% cases but only 31% respondents were appropriately greeted, 77% faced blank expression and 13% received sufficient privacy. Health problems and socioeconomic conditions were inquired by 41% and18% providers respectively, while motivating force for service use was mother in law in most 35% cases. Health workers were successful in clarifying misinformation (86%) and explaining side effects (71%) but only 21% respondents were satisfied with services. Respondents are influenced by family and health care providers while making decision and type of influence was considered positive by 83% respondents. Training and monitoring system be strengthened at family planning centres to improve quality of services while important influencing relations be focused for family planning education to improve utilization of services.

  4. City-Level Energy Decision Making. Data Use in Energy Planning, Implementation, and Evaluation in U.S. Cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aznar, Alexandra [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Day, Megan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Doris, Elizabeth [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mathur, Shivani [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    2015-07-08

    The Cities-LEAP technical report, City-Level Energy Decision Making: Data Use in Energy Planning, Implementation, and Evaluation in U.S. Cities, explores how a sample of cities incorporates data into making energy-related decisions. This report provides the foundation for forthcoming components of the Cities-LEAP project that will help cities improve energy decision making by mapping specific city energy or climate policies and actions to measurable impacts and results.

  5. Make or buy strategy decision making in supply quality chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Mohammad Seyedhosseini

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Minimizing the total cost is absolutely the goal of each supply chain, which is most of the time pursued. In this regards, quality related costs that have significant roles are sometimes neglected. Selecting suppliers, which supply relatively high quality raw materials in a lower cost is considered as a strategic decision. Make or Buy decision can be also noticed in supplier selection process. In this paper, the supply strategy: Make or Buy decision (SS: MOB is studied in order to find which strategy (Make or Buy should be chosen to minimize the total costs of supply chain. Therefore, two separate models are generated for each strategy and several examples are solved for the respective models. Computational experiments show the efficiency of the proposed models for making decision about selecting the best strategy.

  6. A Science-Technology-Society Paradigm and Cross River State Secondary School Students' Scientific Literacy: Problem Solving and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umoren, Grace

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of Science-Technology-Society (STS) curriculum on students' scientific literacy, problem solving and decision making. Four hundred and eighty (480) Senior Secondary two science and non-science students were randomly selected from intact classes in six secondary schools in Calabar Municipality of…

  7. Rule-based decision making model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirola, Miki

    1998-01-01

    A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

  8. Reserving Charging Decision-Making Model and Route Plan for Electric Vehicles Considering Information of Traffic and Charging Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoming Liu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available With the advance of battery energy technology, electric vehicles (EV are catching more and more attention. One of the influencing factors of electric vehicles large-scale application is the availability of charging stations and convenience of charging. It is important to investigate how to make reserving charging strategies and ensure electric vehicles are charged with shorter time and lower charging expense whenever charging request is proposed. This paper proposes a reserving charging decision-making model for electric vehicles that move to certain destinations and need charging services in consideration of traffic conditions and available charging resources at the charging stations. Besides, the interactive mechanism is described to show how the reserving charging system works, as well as the rolling records-based credit mechanism where extra charges from EV is considered to hedge default behavior. With the objectives of minimizing driving time and minimizing charging expenses, an optimization model with two objective functions is formulated. Then the optimizations are solved by a K shortest paths algorithm based on a weighted directed graph, where the time and distance factors are respectively treated as weights of corresponding edges of transportation networks. Case studies show the effectiveness and validity of the proposed route plan and reserving charging decision-making model.

  9. Fuzzy-like multiple objective multistage decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Jiuping

    2014-01-01

    Decision has inspired reflection of many thinkers since the ancient times. With the rapid development of science and society, appropriate dynamic decision making has been playing an increasingly important role in many areas of human activity including engineering, management, economy and others. In most real-world problems, decision makers usually have to make decisions sequentially at different points in time and space, at different levels for a component or a system, while facing multiple and conflicting objectives and a hybrid uncertain environment where fuzziness and randomness co-exist in a decision making process. This leads to the development of fuzzy-like multiple objective multistage decision making. This book provides a thorough understanding of the concepts of dynamic optimization from a modern perspective and presents the state-of-the-art methodology for modeling, analyzing and solving the most typical multiple objective multistage decision making practical application problems under fuzzy-like un...

  10. Neutrosophic Logic Applied to Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albeanu, Grigore; Burtschy, Bernard

    2014-01-01

    Decision making addresses the usage of various methods to select "the best", in some way, alternative strategy (from many available) when a problem is given for solving. The authors propose the usage of neutrosophic way of thinking, called also Smarandache's logic, to select a model by experts when...... degrees of trustability, ultrastability (falsehood), and indeterminacy are used to decide. The procedures deal with multi-attribute neutrosophic decision making and a case study on e-learning software objects is presented....

  11. Strategy and skills for moral decision-making in business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.J. Rossouw

    1997-03-01

    Full Text Available Business Ethics is a truly interdisciplinary field of study. The specific issue of moral decision-making within the field of business ethics testifies to this. Recently some have made important contributions in this regard - contributions in which they emphasised that moral theory is not sufficient for moral decision-making. What is needed besides moral theory is problem-solving ability. In this article the same point is argued, but from a philosophical perspective. It is further indicated that problem-solving ability entails more than merely a strategy fo r making moral decisions. It should also include the development of the thinking skills which are demanded by the strategy chosen fo r problem resolution.

  12. Decision-making of selectable process plans based on petri net with manufacturing constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xiao, Weiyue; Jones, Richard William; Yu, Fei

    2016-01-01

    Intelligent Computer-Aided process planning and decision making for manufacturing systems is a critical subject, that some might argue, has not received the attention it should have from the research community. Despite the progress made in the area of artificial intelligence, there has not been a...

  13. Career Development Strivings: Assessing Goals and Motivation in Career Decision-Making and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dik, Bryan J.; Sargent, Adam M.; Steger, Michael F.

    2008-01-01

    This article describes and demonstrates a novel approach to assessing goals and motives among individuals engaged in the career decision-making and planning process. Participants generated five career development strivings, rated each striving along several dimensions (self-efficacy, outcome expectations, sense of calling, spiritual significance,…

  14. Decision Making in Manufacturing Environment Using Graph Theory and Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods Volume 2

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, R Venkata

    2013-01-01

    Decision Making in Manufacturing Environment Using Graph Theory and Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods presents the concepts and details of applications of MADM methods. A range of methods are covered including Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR), Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Preference Ranking METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la Realité (ELECTRE), COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (COPRAS), Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), UTility Additive (UTA), and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). The existing MADM methods are improved upon and three novel multiple attribute decision making methods for solving the decision making problems of the manufacturing environment are proposed. The concept of integrated weights is introduced in the proposed subjective and objective integrated weights (SOIW) method and the weighted Euclidean distance ba...

  15. Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multicriteria Group Decision Making Based on VIKOR and Choquet Integral

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunqiao Tan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An effective decision making approach based on VIKOR and Choquet integral is developed to solve multicriteria group decision making problem with conflicting criteria and interdependent subjective preference of decision makers in a fuzzy environment where preferences of decision makers with respect to criteria are represented by interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets. First, an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy Choquet integral operator is given. Some of its properties are investigated in detail. The extended VIKOR decision procedure based on the proposed operator is developed for solving the multicriteria group decision making problem where the interactive criteria weight is measured by Shapley value. An illustrative example is given for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed decision procedure for solving the multi-criteria group decision making problem in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment.

  16. Married women's decision making power on family planning use and associated factors in Mizan-Aman, South Ethiopia: a cross sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belay, Abeba Daniel; Mengesha, Zelalem Birhanu; Woldegebriel, Manay Kifle; Gelaw, Yalemzewod Assefa

    2016-03-08

    Women's use of family planning service is influenced by many factors, especially by their decision making power. A woman's decision-making power, be it individual or decision made in collaboration with a partner, is the most important factor in the use of family planning in a household. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of women's decision making power on family planning use and its associated factors. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted on married women in the child bearing age. The women who were living in Mizan city were selected using the simple random sampling method. Trained nurses collected the data by interview, using a structured and pre-tested questioner. Bivariable and multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify the associated factors, and the odds ratio with a 95% CI was computed to assess the strength of the association. Collinearity was also assessed by looking at standard errors in the final fitted model. Overall, more than two-thirds [67.2%: 95% CI (63-71%)] of the married women were found to be more autonomous to decide family planning use. Secondary education [AOR: 9.04, 95% CI: (4.50, 18.16)], government employment [AOR: 4.84, 95% CI: (2.03, 11.52)], being wives of government employed spouses [AOR 2.71, 95% CI: (1.24, 7.97)], having husbands with college or university education [AOR: 11.29, 95% CI: (4.66, 27.35)], and being in the younger age [AOR: 0.27, 95% CI :(0.09, 0.75)] were significantly associated with women's decision-making power on family planning. In this study, women had a high decision making power in family planning use. Age category (34-44-years), formal education, and occupational status had effects on women's decision making power. Promoting parental adult education and engaging women in out of house employment is essential to improve their decision making power in using family planning.

  17. The Use Of Business Games In Problem Solving And Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Skiltere, D.; Bausova, I.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the research is to demonstrate possibilities of simulation games in education process; in managerial ability compliance tests; for training of managers in small and middle business; in decision-making. The use of simulation games in decision making gives an opportunity to prevent these drawbacks, although this kind of the use of the games is not the most complicated, labour–consuming and eventually the most expensive.

  18. Planning ahead in public health? A qualitative study of the time horizons used in public health decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor-Robinson, David C; Milton, Beth; Lloyd-Williams, Ffion; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon

    2008-12-18

    In order to better understand factors that influence decisions for public health, we undertook a qualitative study to explore issues relating to the time horizons used in decision-making. Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews. 33 individuals involved in the decision making process around coronary heart disease were purposively sampled from the UK National Health Service (national, regional and local levels), academia and voluntary organizations. Analysis was based on the framework method using N-VIVO software. Interviews were transcribed, coded and emergent themes identified. Many participants suggested that the timescales for public health decision-making are too short. Commissioners and some practitioners working at the national level particularly felt constrained in terms of planning for the long-term. Furthermore respondents felt that longer term planning was needed to address the wider determinants of health and to achieve societal level changes. Three prominent 'systems' issues were identified as important drivers of short term thinking: the need to demonstrate impact within the 4 year political cycle; the requirement to 'balance the books' within the annual commissioning cycle and the disruption caused by frequent re-organisations within the health service. In addition respondents suggested that the tools and evidence base for longer term planning were not well established. Many public health decision and policy makers feel that the timescales for decision-making are too short. Substantial systemic barriers to longer-term planning exist. Policy makers need to look beyond short-term targets and budget cycles to secure investment for long-term improvement in public health.

  19. Decision-making without a brain: how an amoeboid organism solves the two-armed bandit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Chris R; MacDonald, Hannelore; Mann, Richard P; Marshall, James A R; Latty, Tanya; Garnier, Simon

    2016-06-01

    Several recent studies hint at shared patterns in decision-making between taxonomically distant organisms, yet few studies demonstrate and dissect mechanisms of decision-making in simpler organisms. We examine decision-making in the unicellular slime mould Physarum polycephalum using a classical decision problem adapted from human and animal decision-making studies: the two-armed bandit problem. This problem has previously only been used to study organisms with brains, yet here we demonstrate that a brainless unicellular organism compares the relative qualities of multiple options, integrates over repeated samplings to perform well in random environments, and combines information on reward frequency and magnitude in order to make correct and adaptive decisions. We extend our inquiry by using Bayesian model selection to determine the most likely algorithm used by the cell when making decisions. We deduce that this algorithm centres around a tendency to exploit environments in proportion to their reward experienced through past sampling. The algorithm is intermediate in computational complexity between simple, reactionary heuristics and calculation-intensive optimal performance algorithms, yet it has very good relative performance. Our study provides insight into ancestral mechanisms of decision-making and suggests that fundamental principles of decision-making, information processing and even cognition are shared among diverse biological systems. © 2016 The Authors.

  20. "It was an Emotional Baby": Previvors' Family Planning Decision-Making Styles about Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Marleah; Rauscher, Emily A

    2017-12-01

    Women who test positive for a BRCA genetic mutation are at an increased risk for developing hereditary breast and ovarian cancer and have a 50% chance of passing on their genetic mutation to their children. The purpose of this study was to investigate how women who test positive for a BRCA mutation but have not been diagnosed with cancer make decisions regarding family planning. Analysis of interviews with 20 women revealed they engage in logical and emotional decision-making styles. Although women want to be logical to reduce their hereditary cancer risk, emotions often complicate their decision-making. Women experience fear and worry about a future cancer diagnosis, yet also desire to create a family, particularly having children through natural conception. That is, women negotiate having preventative surgeries in a logical doctor-recommended timeframe but also organize those decisions around emotional desires of motherhood. Overall, this study demonstrates the complex decisions women who test positive for a BRCA mutation must make in regards to genetic testing timing, family planning, and overall quality of life.

  1. Strategic Decision-making,Action Planning,Flexible Creation:A Philosophic Thinking on Chinese City Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Based on the rich experience in urban construction in China for decades,the author argues that urban planning is a process of flexible creation under the guidance of strategic decision-making and action planning and in accordance with local conditions in hope of creating better human settlements and a harmonious society at the same time.Efforts should be made to strengthen the general knowledge and universal truth on urban planning and transform them into public consensus.

  2. Data for Participation and Participation as Data: Supporting Incremental Participatory Decision-Making in Urban Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ddamba, Joshua; Dittrich, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    Current literature on urban planning explores how to use ICT to support citizen participation. Advances in open data and its possibility to easily represent data on maps, opens up new opportunities to support participation and decision making in urban projects. This article investigates how spatial...... process and the decisions that are part of it. The paper concludes with design implications for decision support for urban planning. In future research, the intention is to explore these implications in a Participatory Design process....... of an urban renewal project, the article investigates the use of structured and unstructured data for participation. The fieldwork is conducted using ethnographically inspired methods, based on participatory observations, interviews and document analysis. As a result, the incremental decisions, the resulting...

  3. Indicators of Informal and Formal Decision-Making about a Socioscientific Issue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dauer, Jenny M.; Lute, Michelle L.; Straka, Olivia

    2017-01-01

    We propose two contrasting types of student decision-making based on social and cognitive psychology models of separate mental processes for problem solving. Informal decision-making uses intuitive reasoning and is subject to cognitive biases, whereas formal decision-making uses effortful, logical reasoning. We explored indicators of students'…

  4. Fuzzy methods in decision making process - A particular approach in manufacturing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coroiu, A. M.

    2015-11-01

    We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk

  5. Planning a Stigmatized Nonvisible Illness Disclosure: Applying the Disclosure Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Soe Yoon; Venetis, Maria K.; Greene, Kathryn; Magsamen-Conrad, Kate; Checton, Maria G.; Banerjee, Smita C.

    2016-01-01

    This study applied the disclosure decision-making model (DD-MM) to explore how individuals plan to disclose nonvisible illness (Study 1), compared to planning to disclose personal information (Study 2). Study 1 showed that perceived stigma from the illness negatively predicted disclosure efficacy; closeness predicted anticipated response (i.e., provision of support) although it did not influence disclosure efficacy; disclosure efficacy led to reduced planning, with planning leading to scheduling. Study 2 demonstrated that when information was considered to be intimate, it negatively influenced disclosure efficacy. Unlike the model with stigma (Study 1), closeness positively predicted both anticipated response and disclosure efficacy. The rest of the hypothesized relationships showed a similar pattern to Study 1: disclosure efficacy reduced planning, which then positively influenced scheduling. Implications of understanding stages of planning for stigmatized information are discussed. PMID:27662447

  6. Business owner and manager’s attitudes towards financial decision-making and strategic planning: Evidence from Croatian SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Klačmer Čalopa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of the paper was to explore the attitude of business owners and managers in the small and medium sized companies (SMEs in Croatia toward financial decision-making and strategic planning. In addition, it is attempted to identify managers’ styles and entrepreneurial skills, as well as the level of their financial knowledge. Data was gathered using online questionnaire method and analyzed with standard tools of descriptive statistics. The research sample consisted of 106 respondents from SMEs in Croatia (14% response rate. Research results reveal that business owners and managers are concerned about financial results but, unfortunately, do not influence the financial decision-making in all of its stages. The study could contribute to a better understanding of attitudes of Croatian SMEs business owners and managers toward financial decision-making and strategic planning.

  7. Group decision-making techniques for natural resource management applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan, Beth A.K.; Armour, Carl L.

    1992-01-01

    This report is an introduction to decision analysis and problem-solving techniques for professionals in natural resource management. Although these managers are often called upon to make complex decisions, their training in the natural sciences seldom provides exposure to the decision-making tools developed in management science. Our purpose is to being to fill this gap. We present a general analysis of the pitfalls of group problem solving, and suggestions for improved interactions followed by the specific techniques. Selected techniques are illustrated. The material is easy to understand and apply without previous training or excessive study and is applicable to natural resource management issues.

  8. How are people with dementia involved in care-planning and decision-making? An Irish social work perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, Sarah; Begley, Emer; O'Brien, Marita

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, there have been national and international policy advances around capacity and decision-making and an apparent burgeoning rights-based approach to the issue, all of which have the potential to impact on the experience for people with dementia in Ireland. There is little evidence however on whether these policies and principles are being translated into practice and whether traditional paternalistic approaches to decision-making are being challenged. To gain insight into current practice, research was undertaken with social workers working with older people in Ireland; reporting on the involvement of people living with dementia in care-planning processes. Data collection included a mixed method approach; an on-line survey of social workers from across the country who reported on their open caseload during the month of June 2015 (N = 38 social workers reporting on the experiences of 788 older people, of which 39% of older people had a formal diagnosis of dementia). In addition, semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with social workers working in the nine Community Health Organisation areas (N = 21). Findings show that people with dementia were high users of social work services, accounting for 44.5% of the client group. Social workers reported that there were no standardised approaches to how Health and Social Care Professionals involved people with dementia in care planning and decision-making. Overall, people with dementia were more likely to be excluded from decision-making processes due to (i) assumptions that they lacked capacity, (ii) family members preferences that the person was not involved, (iii) communication difficulties, (iv) time constraints, (v) little or no opportunity given or (vi) the person delegated decision-making to others. Good practices were identified through multidisciplinary team approaches and formal care planning meetings. This research highlights variability in how people with dementia participate

  9. Assessing Professional Decision-Making Abilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNergney, Robert; Hinson, Stephanie

    1985-01-01

    Describes Teacher Development Decision Exercises, a computer-based method of diagnosing abilities of elementary and secondary school supervisors (principals, staff developers, curriculum coordinators) to make professional preactive or planning decisions. This approval simulates assessment of supervisors' abilities to use professional knowledge to…

  10. Deviant Peer Behavior and Adolescent Delinquency: Protective Effects of Inhibitory Control, Planning, or Decision Making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinnant, J Benjamin; Forman-Alberti, Alissa B

    2018-05-09

    We examined relations between adolescent perceptions of deviant peer behavior and delinquency as moderated by inhibitory control, planning, and decision making in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development at age 15 (N = 991). Adolescents reported perceptions of deviant peer behavior. Inhibitory control, planning, and decision making were assessed behaviorally. Delinquency was evaluated with a latent variable comprised of parent-guardian perceptions of adolescent delinquency and adolescent self-reports. Only inhibitory control moderated the relationship between deviant peer behavior and delinquency, showing that better inhibition protected against delinquency in contexts of high levels of adolescent perceptions of deviant peer behavior. Findings are discussed in the context of theories of adolescent delinquency and risk taking. © 2018 Society for Research on Adolescence.

  11. Utility Function for modeling Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems as games

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandre Bevilacqua Leoneti

    2016-01-01

    To assist in the decision making process, several multicriteria methods have been proposed. However, the existing methods assume a single decision-maker and do not consider decision under risk, which is better addressed by Game Theory. Hence, the aim of this research is to propose a Utility Function that makes it possible to model Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems as games. The advantage of using Game Theory for solving Group Multicriteria Decision Making problems is to evaluate th...

  12. The attitude-behavior discrepancy in medical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Fei; Li, Dongdong; Cao, Rong; Zeng, Juli; Guan, Hao

    2014-12-01

    In medical practice, the dissatisfaction of patients about medical decisions made by doctors is often regarded as the fuse of doctor-patient conflict. However, a few studies have looked at why there are such dissatisfactions. This experimental study aimed to explore the discrepancy between attitude and behavior within medical situations and its interaction with framing description. A total of 450 clinical undergraduates were randomly assigned to six groups and investigated using the classic medical decision making problem, which was described either in a positive or a negative frame (2) × decision making behavior\\attitude to risky plan\\attitude to conservative plan (3). A discrepancy between attitude and behavior did exist in medical situations. Regarding medical dilemmas, if the mortality rate was described, subjects had a significant tendency to choose a conservative plan (t = 3.55, P 0.05). However, regardless of the plan chosen by the doctor, the subjects had a significant opposing attitude (P Framing description had a significant impact on both decision making behavior and attitude (t behavior = -3.24, P framing of a description has an impact on medical decision-making.

  13. Strategic Aspects of Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Management. Planning for Effective Decision Making; Consequence Management and Transition to Recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    The collective experience of the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Emergency Matters (WPNEM), and in particular, the experience from the International Nuclear Emergency Exercise (INEX) series, has shown that it is important to plan and to implement emergency response actions based on a guiding strategic vision. Within this context, Strategic Aspects of Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Management presents a framework of strategic planning elements to be considered by national emergency management authorities when establishing or enhancing processes for decision making, and when developing or implementing protection strategies. The focus is on nuclear or radiological emergency situations leading to complex preparedness and response conditions, involving multiple jurisdictions and significant international interfaces. The report is aimed at national emergency management authorities, international organisations and those who are seeking to improve the effectiveness of emergency management. Its goal is to provide insights into decision-making processes within existing emergency planning arrangements. It also highlights common areas of good practice in decision making. Specific areas for improvement, identified during the INEX-3 consequence management exercise, are included, particularly in support of decision making for countermeasures for consequence management and the transition to recovery. (authors)

  14. Effects of Information Visualization on Older Adults' Decision-Making Performance in a Medicare Plan Selection Task: A Comparative Usability Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Margaux M; Crumley-Branyon, Jessica J; Leidheiser, William R; Pak, Richard

    2016-06-01

    Technology gains have improved tools for evaluating complex tasks by providing environmental supports (ES) that increase ease of use and improve performance outcomes through the use of information visualizations (info-vis). Complex info-vis emphasize the need to understand individual differences in abilities of target users, the key cognitive abilities needed to execute a decision task, and the graphical elements that can serve as the most effective ES. Older adults may be one such target user group that would benefit from increased ES to mitigate specific declines in cognitive abilities. For example, choosing a prescription drug plan is a necessary and complex task that can impact quality of life if the wrong choice is made. The decision to enroll in one plan over another can involve comparing over 15 plans across many categories. Within this context, the large amount of complex information and reduced working memory capacity puts older adults' decision making at a disadvantage. An intentionally designed ES, such as an info-vis that reduces working memory demand, may assist older adults in making the most effective decision among many options. The objective of this study is to examine whether the use of an info-vis can lower working memory demands and positively affect complex decision-making performance of older adults in the context of choosing a Medicare prescription drug plan. Participants performed a computerized decision-making task in the context of finding the best health care plan. Data included quantitative decision-making performance indicators and surveys examining previous history with purchasing insurance. Participants used a colored info-vis ES or a table (no ES) to perform the decision task. Task difficulty was manipulated by increasing the number of selection criteria used to make an accurate decision. A repeated measures analysis was performed to examine differences between the two table designs. Twenty-three older adults between the ages of 66

  15. Team Leadership and Cancer End-of-Life Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldfogel, Julie M; Battle, Dena J; Rosen, Michael; Knight, Louise; Saiki, Catherine B; Nesbit, Suzanne A; Cooper, Rhonda S; Browner, Ilene S; Hoofring, Laura H; Billing, Lynn S; Dy, Sydney M

    2016-11-01

    End-of-life decision making in cancer can be a complicated process. Patients and families encounter multiple providers throughout their cancer care. When the efforts of these providers are not well coordinated in teams, opportunities for high-quality, longitudinal goals of care discussions can be missed. This article reviews the case of a 55-year-old man with lung cancer, illustrating the barriers and missed opportunities for end-of-life decision making in his care through the lens of team leadership, a key principle in the science of teams. The challenges demonstrated in this case reflect the importance of the four functions of team leadership: information search and structuring, information use in problem solving, managing personnel resources, and managing material resources. Engaging in shared leadership of these four functions can help care providers improve their interactions with patients and families concerning end-of-life care decision making. This shared leadership can also produce a cohesive care plan that benefits from the expertise of the range of available providers while reflecting patient needs and preferences. Clinicians and researchers should consider the roles of team leadership functions and shared leadership in improving patient care when developing and studying models of cancer care delivery.

  16. An approach to solve group-decision-making problems with ordinal interval numbers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Zhi-Ping; Liu, Yang

    2010-10-01

    The ordinal interval number is a form of uncertain preference information in group decision making (GDM), while it is seldom discussed in the existing research. This paper investigates how the ranking order of alternatives is determined based on preference information of ordinal interval numbers in GDM problems. When ranking a large quantity of ordinal interval numbers, the efficiency and accuracy of the ranking process are critical. A new approach is proposed to rank alternatives using ordinal interval numbers when every ranking ordinal in an ordinal interval number is thought to be uniformly and independently distributed in its interval. First, we give the definition of possibility degree on comparing two ordinal interval numbers and the related theory analysis. Then, to rank alternatives, by comparing multiple ordinal interval numbers, a collective expectation possibility degree matrix on pairwise comparisons of alternatives is built, and an optimization model based on this matrix is constructed. Furthermore, an algorithm is also presented to rank alternatives by solving the model. Finally, two examples are used to illustrate the use of the proposed approach.

  17. Multi-objective decision-making model based on CBM for an aircraft fleet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Bin; Lin, Lin

    2018-04-01

    Modern production management patterns, in which multi-unit (e.g., a fleet of aircrafts) are managed in a holistic manner, have brought new challenges for multi-unit maintenance decision making. To schedule a good maintenance plan, not only does the individual machine maintenance have to be considered, but also the maintenance of the other individuals have to be taken into account. Since most condition-based maintenance researches for aircraft focused on solely reducing maintenance cost or maximizing the availability of single aircraft, as well as considering that seldom researches concentrated on both the two objectives: minimizing cost and maximizing the availability of a fleet (total number of available aircraft in fleet), a multi-objective decision-making model based on condition-based maintenance concentrated both on the above two objectives is established. Furthermore, in consideration of the decision maker may prefer providing the final optimal result in the form of discrete intervals instead of a set of points (non-dominated solutions) in real decision-making problem, a novel multi-objective optimization method based on support vector regression is proposed to solve the above multi-objective decision-making model. Finally, a case study regarding a fleet is conducted, with the results proving that the approach efficiently generates outcomes that meet the schedule requirements.

  18. Perspectives about Living on the Horns of Dilemmas: An Analysis of Gender Factors Related to Superintendent Decision-Making and Problem-Solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polka, Walter S.; Litchka, Peter R.; Calzi, Frank F.; Denig, Stephen J.; Mete, Rosina E.

    2014-01-01

    The major focus of this paper is a gender-based analysis of school superintendent decision-making and problem-solving as well as an investigation of contemporary leadership dilemmas. The findings are based on responses from 258 superintendents of K-12 school districts in Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania collected over a…

  19. Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning - a review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pohekar, S.D.; Ramachandram, M. [Birla Inst. of Technology and Science, Pilani (India)

    2004-08-01

    Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques are gaining popularity in sustainable energy management. The techniques provide solutions to the problems involving conflicting and multiple objectives. Several methods based on weighted averages, priority setting, outranking, fuzzy principles and their combinations are employed for energy planning decisions. A review of more than 90 published papers is presented here to analyze the applicability of various methods discussed. A classification on application areas and the year of application is presented to highlight the trends. It is observed that Analytical Hierarchy Process is the most popular technique followed by outranking techniques PROMETHEE and ELECTRE. Validation of results with multiple methods, development of interactive decision support systems and application of fuzzy methods to tackle uncertainties in the data is observed in the published literature. (author)

  20. Decision-making in diabetes mellitus type 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustad, James K; Musselman, Dominique L; Skyler, Jay S; Matheson, Della; Delamater, Alan; Kenyon, Norma S; Cáceda, Ricardo; Nemeroff, Charles B

    2013-01-01

    Decreased treatment adherence in patients with diabetes mellitus type 1 (type 1 DM) may reflect impairments in decision-making and underlying associated deficits in working memory and executive functioning. Other factors, including comorbid major depression, may also interfere with decision-making. The authors sought to review the clinically relevant characteristics of decision-making in type 1 DM by surveying the literature on decision-making by patients with type 1 DM. Deficiencies in decision-making in patients with type 1 DM or their caregivers contribute to treatment nonadherence and poorer metabolic control. Animal models of type 1 DM reveal deficits in hippocampal-dependent memory tasks, which are reversible with insulin. Neurocognitive studies of patients with type 1 DM reveal lowered performance on ability to apply knowledge to solve problems in a new situation and acquired scholarly knowledge, psychomotor efficiency, cognitive flexibility, visual perception, speed of information-processing, and sustained attention. Other factors that might contribute to poor decision-making in patients with type 1 DM, include "hypoglycemia unawareness" and comorbid major depression (given its increased prevalence in type 1 DM). Future studies utilizing novel treatment strategies to help patients with type 1 DM make better decisions about their disease may improve their glycemic control and quality of life, while minimizing the impact of end-organ disease.

  1. Individual feature identification method for nuclear accident emergency decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yingfeng; Wang Jianlong; Lin Xiaoling; Yang Yongxin; Lu Xincheng

    2014-01-01

    According to the individual feature identification method and combining with the characteristics of nuclear accident emergency decision-making, the evaluation index system of the nuclear accident emergency decision-making was determined on the basis of investigation and analysis. The effectiveness of the nuclear accident emergency decision-making was evaluated based on the individual standards by solving the individual features of the individual standard identification decisions. The case study shows that the optimization result is reasonable, objective and reliable, and it can provide an effective analysis method and decision-making support for optimization of nuclear accident emergency protective measures. (authors)

  2. Integrated catchment modelling within a strategic planning and decision making process: Werra case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Jörg; Funke, Markus

    Integrated water resources management (IWRM) redefines conventional water management approaches through a closer cross-linkage between environment and society. The role of public participation and socio-economic considerations becomes more important within the planning and decision making process. In this paper we address aspects of the integration of catchment models into such a process taking the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) as an example. Within a case study situated in the Werra river basin (Central Germany), a systems analytic decision process model was developed. This model uses the semantics of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) activity model. As an example application, the catchment model SWAT and the water quality model RWQM1 were applied to simulate the effect of phosphorus emissions from non-point and point sources on water quality. The decision process model was able to guide the participants of the case study through the interdisciplinary planning and negotiation of actions. Further improvements of the integration framework include tools for quantitative uncertainty analyses, which are crucial for real life application of models within an IWRM decision making toolbox. For the case study, the multi-criteria assessment of actions indicates that the polluter pays principle can be met at larger scales (sub-catchment or river basin) without significantly compromising cost efficiency for the local situation.

  3. Integrated decision making for the optimal bioethanol supply chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corsano, Gabriela; Fumero, Yanina; Montagna, Jorge M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Optimal allocation, design and production planning of integrated ethanol plants is considered. • Mixed Integer Programming model is presented for solving the integration problem. • Different tradeoffs can be assessed and analyzed. • The modeling framework represents an useful tool for guiding decision making. - Abstract: Bioethanol production poses different challenges that require an integrated approach. Usually previous works have focused on specific perspectives of the global problem. On the contrary, bioethanol, in particular, and biofuels, in general, requires an integrated decision making framework that takes into account the needs and concerns of the different members involved in its supply chain. In this work, a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model for the optimal allocation, design and production planning of integrated ethanol/yeast plants is considered. The proposed formulation addresses the relations between different aspects of the bioethanol supply chain and provides an efficient tool to assess the global operation of the supply chain taking into account different points of view. The model proposed in this work simultaneously determines the structure of a three-echelon supply chain (raw material sites, production facilities and customer zones), the design of each installed plant and operational considerations through production campaigns. Yeast production is considered in order to reduce the negative environmental impact caused by bioethanol residues. Several cases are presented in order to assess the approach capabilities and to evaluate the tradeoffs among all the decisions

  4. "Doctor, Make My Decisions": Decision Control Preferences, Advance Care Planning, and Satisfaction With Communication Among Diverse Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Catherine; Feuz, Mariko A; McMahan, Ryan D; Miao, Yinghui; Sudore, Rebecca L

    2016-01-01

    Culturally diverse older adults may prefer varying control over medical decisions. Decision control preferences (DCPs) may profoundly affect advance care planning (ACP) and communication. To determine the DCPs of diverse, older adults and whether DCPs are associated with participant characteristics, ACP, and communication satisfaction. A total of 146 participants were recruited from clinics and senior centers in San Francisco. We assessed DCPs using the control preferences scale: doctor makes all decisions (low), shares with doctor (medium), makes own decisions (high). We assessed associations between DCPs and demographics; prior advance directives; ability to make in-the-moment goals of care decisions; self-efficacy, readiness, and prior asked questions; and satisfaction with patient-doctor communication (on a five-point Likert scale), using Chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis analysis of variance. Mean age was 71 ± 10 years, 53% were non-white, 47% completed an advance directive, and 70% made goals of care decisions. Of the sample, 18% had low DCPs, 33% medium, and 49% high. Older age was the only characteristic associated with DCPs (low: 75 ± 11 years, medium: 69 ± 10 years, high: 70 ± 9 years, P = 0.003). DCPs were not associated with ACP, in-the-moment decisions, or communication satisfaction. Readiness was the only question-asking behavior associated (low: 3.8 ± 1.2, medium: 4.1 ± 1.2, high: 4.3 ± 1.2, P = 0.05). Nearly one-fifth of diverse, older adults want doctors to make their medical decisions. Older age and lower readiness to ask questions were the only demographic variables significantly associated with low DCPs. Yet, older adults with low DCPs still engaged in ACP, asked questions, and reported communication satisfaction. Clinicians can encourage ACP and questions for all patients, but should assess DCPs to provide the desired amount of decision support. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. All

  5. Effective decision making 10 steps to better decision making and problem solving

    CERN Document Server

    Kourdi, Jeremy

    2011-01-01

    Decisions and problems can often leave people with a dilemma: knowing that a decision is required, but uncertain how to ensure that it is the best one and that it will be successfully executed. The paradox is that the very pressure for a decision often breeds indecisiveness.

  6. Combining ecosystem services assessment with structured decision making to support ecological restoration planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, David M; Mazzotta, Marisa; Bousquin, Justin

    2018-04-10

    Accounting for ecosystem services in environmental decision making is an emerging research topic. Modern frameworks for ecosystem services assessment emphasize evaluating the social benefits of ecosystems, in terms of who benefits and by how much, to aid in comparing multiple courses of action. Structured methods that use decision analytic-approaches are emerging for the practice of ecological restoration. In this article, we combine ecosystem services assessment with structured decision making to estimate and evaluate measures of the potential benefits of ecological restoration with a case study in the Woonasquatucket River watershed, Rhode Island, USA. We partnered with a local watershed management organization to analyze dozens of candidate wetland restoration sites for their abilities to supply five ecosystem services-flood water retention, scenic landscapes, learning opportunities, recreational opportunities, and birds. We developed 22 benefit indicators related to the ecosystem services as well as indicators for social equity and reliability that benefits will sustain in the future. We applied conceptual modeling and spatial analysis to estimate indicator values for each candidate restoration site. Lastly, we developed a decision support tool to score and aggregate the values for the organization to screen the restoration sites. Results show that restoration sites in urban areas can provide greater social benefits than sites in less urban areas. Our research approach is general and can be used to investigate other restoration planning studies that perform ecosystem services assessment and fit into a decision-making process.

  7. Multi-level decision making models, methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya

    2015-01-01

    This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.  

  8. A Monte-Carlo game theoretic approach for Multi-Criteria Decision Making under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madani, Kaveh; Lund, Jay R.

    2011-05-01

    Game theory provides a useful framework for studying Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems. This paper suggests modeling Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems as strategic games and solving them using non-cooperative game theory concepts. The suggested method can be used to prescribe non-dominated solutions and also can be used as a method to predict the outcome of a decision making problem. Non-cooperative stability definitions for solving the games allow consideration of non-cooperative behaviors, often neglected by other methods which assume perfect cooperation among decision makers. To deal with the uncertainty in input variables a Monte-Carlo Game Theory (MCGT) approach is suggested which maps the stochastic problem into many deterministic strategic games. The games are solved using non-cooperative stability definitions and the results include possible effects of uncertainty in input variables on outcomes. The method can handle multi-criteria multi-decision-maker problems with uncertainty. The suggested method does not require criteria weighting, developing a compound decision objective, and accurate quantitative (cardinal) information as it simplifies the decision analysis by solving problems based on qualitative (ordinal) information, reducing the computational burden substantially. The MCGT method is applied to analyze California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta problem. The suggested method provides insights, identifies non-dominated alternatives, and predicts likely decision outcomes.

  9. An integrated information management system based DSS for problem solving and decision making in open & distance learning institutions of India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Khanna

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available An integrated information system based DSS is developed for Open and Distance Learning (ODL institutions in India. The system has been web structured with the most suitable newly developed modules. A DSS model has been developed for solving semi-structured and unstructured problems including decision making with regard to various programmes and activities operating in the ODLIs. The DSS model designed for problem solving is generally based on quantitative formulas, whereas for problems involving imprecision and uncertainty, a fuzzy theory based DSS is employed. The computer operated system thus developed would help the ODLI management to quickly identify programmes and activities that require immediate attention. It shall also provide guidance for obtaining the most appropriate managerial decisions without any loss of time. As a result, the various subsystems operating in the ODLI are able to administer its activities more efficiently and effectively to enhance the overall performance of the concerned ODL institution to a new level.

  10. Multiattribute Decision Making Based on Entropy under Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingjun Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiattribute decision making (MADM is one of the central problems in artificial intelligence, specifically in management fields. In most cases, this problem arises from uncertainty both in the data derived from the decision maker and the actions performed in the environment. Fuzzy set and high-order fuzzy sets were proven to be effective approaches in solving decision-making problems with uncertainty. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate the MADM problem with completely unknown attribute weights in the framework of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF set (IVIFS. We first propose a new definition of IVIF entropy and some calculation methods for IVIF entropy. Furthermore, we propose an entropy-based decision-making method to solve IVIF MADM problems with completely unknown attribute weights. Particular emphasis is put on assessing the attribute weights based on IVIF entropy. Instead of the traditional methods, which use divergence among attributes or the probabilistic discrimination of attributes to obtain attribute weights, we utilize the IVIF entropy to assess the attribute weights based on the credibility of the decision-making matrix for solving the problem. Finally, a supplier selection example is given to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed MADM method.

  11. An entropic barriers diffusion theory of decision-making in multiple alternative tasks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Fernandez Slezak

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a theory of decision-making in the presence of multiple choices that departs from traditional approaches by explicitly incorporating entropic barriers in a stochastic search process. We analyze response time data from an on-line repository of 15 million blitz chess games, and show that our model fits not just the mean and variance, but the entire response time distribution (over several response-time orders of magnitude at every stage of the game. We apply the model to show that (a higher cognitive expertise corresponds to the exploration of more complex solution spaces, and (b reaction times of users at an on-line buying website can be similarly explained. Our model can be seen as a synergy between diffusion models used to model simple two-choice decision-making and planning agents in complex problem solving.

  12. Facilitating participatory multilevel decision-making by using interactive mental maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constanze Pfeiffer

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Participation of citizens in political, economic or social decisions is increasingly recognized as a precondition to foster sustainable development processes. Since spatial information is often important during planning and decisionmaking, participatory mapping gains in popularity. However, little attention has been paid to the fact that information must be presented in a useful way to reach city planners and policy makers. Above all, the importance of visualisation tools to support collaboration, analytical reasoning, problem solving and decision-making in analysing and planning processes has been underestimated. In this paper, we describe how an interactive mental map tool has been developed in a highly interdisciplinary disaster management project in Chennai, India. We moved from a hand drawn mental maps approach to an interactive mental map tool. This was achieved by merging socio-economic and geospatial data on infrastructure, local perceptions, coping and adaptation strategies with remote sensing data and modern technology of map making. This newly developed interactive mapping tool allowed for insights into different locally-constructed realities and facilitated the communication of results to the wider public and respective policy makers. It proved to be useful in visualising information and promoting participatory decision-making processes. We argue that the tool bears potential also for health research projects. The interactive mental map can be used to spatially and temporally assess key health themes such as availability of, and accessibility to, existing health care services, breeding sites of disease vectors, collection and storage of water, waste disposal, location of public toilets or defecation sites.

  13. Technology decision making. A constructive approach to planning and acquisition will require a paradigm shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkowitz, D A; Swan, M M

    1993-01-01

    Technology should be viewed as an integrating rather than a divisive element in hospital planning. In the past, technology decision-making responsibility has often been diffused throughout hospitals, but providers are beginning to take a more considered and coherent approach. The process of making decisions about technology has four key elements: assessment, planning, acquisition, and management. The most important aspect of the assessment phase is the formation of a technology advisory committee to review and evaluate requests for new and emerging technology; review capital budget requests for new and replacement technology; and set mission-based and strategic priorities for new, emerging, and replacement technologies. Technology planning allows hospitals to set long-term goals for technology acquisition. The process involves an audit of existing technologies, evaluation of other hospitals' technologies, and review of technology trends. A well-defined technology plan will, in turn, facilitate the acquisition and management process, allowing hospitals greater flexibility in negotiating costs and budgeting for training, spare parts, service, upgrades, and support. By pooling resources with other providers in their region, hospitals can further enhance the effectiveness of their use and acquisition of technology. Collaboration allows providers to share the risks of technologically volatile and intensive services and avoid costly duplication of equipment and facilities.

  14. Decision making in high-velocity environments: implications for healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanovich, P L; Uhrig, J D

    1999-01-01

    Healthcare can be considered a high-velocity environment and, as such, can benefit from research conducted in other industries regarding strategic decision making. Strategic planning is not only relevant to firms in high-velocity environments, but is also important for high performance and survival. Specifically, decision-making speed seems to be instrumental in differentiating between high and low performers; fast decision makers outperform slow decision makers. This article outlines the differences between fast and slow decision makers, identifies five paralyses that can slow decision making in healthcare, and outlines the role of a planning department in circumventing these paralyses. Executives can use the proposed planning structure to improve both the speed and quality of strategic decisions. The structure uses planning facilitators to avoid the following five paralyses: 1. Analysis. Decision makers can no longer afford the luxury of lengthy, detailed analysis but must develop real-time systems that provide appropriate, timely information. 2. Alternatives. Many alternatives (beyond the traditional two or three) need to be considered and the alternatives must be evaluated simultaneously. 3. Group Think. Decision makers must avoid limited mind-sets and autocratic leadership styles by seeking out independent, knowledgeable counselors. 4. Process. Decision makers need to resolve conflicts through "consensus with qualification," as opposed to waiting for everyone to come on board. 5. Separation. Successful implementation requires a structured process that cuts across disciplines and levels.

  15. Development of the Supported Decision Making Inventory System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shogren, Karrie A; Wehmeyer, Michael L; Uyanik, Hatice; Heidrich, Megan

    2017-12-01

    Supported decision making has received increased attention as an alternative to guardianship and a means to enable people with intellectual and developmental disabilities to exercise their right to legal capacity. Assessments are needed that can used by people with disabilities and their systems of supports to identify and plan for needed supports to enable decision making. This article describes the steps taken to develop such an assessment tool, the Supported Decision Making Inventory System (SDMIS), and initial feedback received from self-advocates with intellectual disability. The three sections of the SDMIS (Supported Decision Making Personal Factors Inventory, Supported Decision Making Environmental Demands Inventory, and Decision Making Autonomy Inventory) are described and implications for future research, policy, and practice are discussed.

  16. Problem Solving in Physics: Undergraduates' Framing, Procedures, and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modir, Bahar

    In this dissertation I will start with the broad research question of what does problem solving in upper division physics look like? My focus in this study is on students' problem solving in physics theory courses. Some mathematical formalisms are common across all physics core courses such as using the process of separation of variables, doing Taylor series, or using the orthogonality properties of mathematical functions to set terms equal to zero. However, there are slight differences in their use of these mathematical formalisms across different courses, possibly because of how students map different physical systems to these processes. Thus, my first main research question aims to answer how students perform these recurring processes across upper division physics courses. I break this broad question into three particular research questions: What knowledge pieces do students use to make connections between physics and procedural math? How do students use their knowledge pieces coherently to provide reasoning strategies in estimation problems? How do students look ahead into the problem to read the information out of the physical scenario to align their use of math in physics? Building on the previous body of the literature, I will use the theory family of Knowledge in Pieces and provide evidence to expand this theoretical foundation. I will compare my study with previous studies and provide suggestions on how to generalize these theory expansions for future use. My experimental data mostly come from video-based classroom data. Students in groups of 2-4 students solve in-class problems in quantum mechanics and electromagnetic fields 1 courses collaboratively. In addition, I will analyze clinical interviews to demonstrate how a single case study student plays an epistemic game to estimate the total energy in a hurricane. My second research question is more focused on a particular instructional context. How do students frame problem solving in quantum mechanics? I

  17. Procedural Rationality in the Decision-Making of Internationalizing SMEs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hsieh, Linda; Elbanna, Said; Narooz, Rose

    This paper contributes to the growing body of empirical work on how SME decision-makers decide to internationalize in two ways: first, it responds to recent calls for incorporating strategic decision-making literature into understanding SME internationalization decisions. Second, it provides a be...... a more rational decision-making procedure when they perceive a high level of international risk. The evidence also suggest that internationalization performance, planned internationalization, credit check, and decision team size are positively related to procedural rationality....... a better understanding of under what circumstances, SME decision-makers tend to follow a more rational approach toward internationalization decisions. Specifically, this paper examines a set of contextual variables (the level of perceived international risk, internationalization performance, planned versus...... ad hoc internationalization, credit check, distribution adaptation, and decision team size) and their influence on the extent of procedural rationality in SME internationalization decision-making process. The findings from a sample of 176 export-active SMEs show that decision-makers tend to follow...

  18. Detailed Sponge City Planning Based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Decision-Making: A Case Study on Yangchen Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junyu Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We proposed a Hierarchical Fuzzy Inference System (HFIS framework to offer better decision supports with fewer user-defined data (uncertainty. The framework consists two parts: a fuzzified Geographic Information System (GIS and a HFIS system. The former provides comprehensive information on the criterion unit and the latter helps in making more robust decisions. The HFIS and the traditional Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM method were applied to a case study and compared. The fuzzified GIS maps maintained a majority of the dominant characteristics of the criterion unit but also revealed some non-significant information according to the surrounding environment. The urban planning map generated by the two methods shares similar strategy choices (6% difference, while the spatial distribution of strategies shares 69.7% in common. The HFIS required fewer subjective decisions than the MCDM (34 user-defined decision rules vs. 141 manual evaluations.

  19. Adversarial Collaboration Decision-Making: An Overview of Social Quantum Information Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    collaborative decision - making (CDM) to solve problems is an aspect of human behavior least yielding to rational predictions. To reduce the complexity of CDM...increases. Implications for C2 decision - making are discussed. Overview of research Game theory was one of the first rational approaches to the study of...Psychologist, 36, 343-356. Lawless, W.F. (2001), The quantum of social action and the function of emotion in decision - making , Proceedings, Emotional and

  20. A cognitive prosthesis for complex decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremblay, Sébastien; Gagnon, Jean-François; Lafond, Daniel; Hodgetts, Helen M; Doiron, Maxime; Jeuniaux, Patrick P J M H

    2017-01-01

    While simple heuristics can be ecologically rational and effective in naturalistic decision making contexts, complex situations require analytical decision making strategies, hypothesis-testing and learning. Sub-optimal decision strategies - using simplified as opposed to analytic decision rules - have been reported in domains such as healthcare, military operational planning, and government policy making. We investigate the potential of a computational toolkit called "IMAGE" to improve decision-making by developing structural knowledge and increasing understanding of complex situations. IMAGE is tested within the context of a complex military convoy management task through (a) interactive simulations, and (b) visualization and knowledge representation capabilities. We assess the usefulness of two versions of IMAGE (desktop and immersive) compared to a baseline. Results suggest that the prosthesis helped analysts in making better decisions, but failed to increase their structural knowledge about the situation once the cognitive prosthesis is removed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Using Multimodal Input for Autonomous Decision Making for Unmanned Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neilan, James H.; Cross, Charles; Rothhaar, Paul; Tran, Loc; Motter, Mark; Qualls, Garry; Trujillo, Anna; Allen, B. Danette

    2016-01-01

    Autonomous decision making in the presence of uncertainly is a deeply studied problem space particularly in the area of autonomous systems operations for land, air, sea, and space vehicles. Various techniques ranging from single algorithm solutions to complex ensemble classifier systems have been utilized in a research context in solving mission critical flight decisions. Realized systems on actual autonomous hardware, however, is a difficult systems integration problem, constituting a majority of applied robotics development timelines. The ability to reliably and repeatedly classify objects during a vehicles mission execution is vital for the vehicle to mitigate both static and dynamic environmental concerns such that the mission may be completed successfully and have the vehicle operate and return safely. In this paper, the Autonomy Incubator proposes and discusses an ensemble learning and recognition system planned for our autonomous framework, AEON, in selected domains, which fuse decision criteria, using prior experience on both the individual classifier layer and the ensemble layer to mitigate environmental uncertainty during operation.

  2. Making decisions with a continuous mind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherbaum, S; Dshemuchadse, M; Kalis, A

    2008-12-01

    Neuroeconomics is a rapidly expanding field at the interfaces of the human sciences. The interdisciplinary nature of this field results in several challenges when attempts are made to solve puzzling questions in human decision making, such as why and how people discount future gains. We argue that an empirical approach based on dynamic systems theory (DST) could inspire and advance the neuroeconomic investigation of decision-making processes in three ways: by enriching the mental model, by extending the empirical tool set, and by facilitating interdisciplinary exchange. The present article addresses the challenges neuroeconomics faces by focusing on intertemporal choice. After a brief introduction of DST and related research, a DST-based conceptual model of decision making is developed and linked to underlying neural principles. On this basis, we outline the application of DST-informed empirical strategies to intertemporal choice. Finally, we discuss the general consequences of and possible objections to the proposed approach to research in intertemporal choice and the field of neuroeconomics.

  3. ADEM - a system for recording and retrieving AECB decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beare, J W

    1995-04-01

    A concept and plan is proposed for a system to record on-going decision-making by the AECB so that the decision-making can be retrieved in the future. The system could also be used to retrieve past decision-making. (author). 4 tabs., 1 fig.

  4. ADEM - a system for recording and retrieving AECB decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beare, J.W.

    1995-04-01

    A concept and plan is proposed for a system to record on-going decision-making by the AECB so that the decision-making can be retrieved in the future. The system could also be used to retrieve past decision-making. (author). 4 tabs., 1 fig

  5. Cognitive Reflection Versus Calculation in Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr eSinayev

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005. In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT’s ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes; Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1 or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2. These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

  6. Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen

    2015-01-01

    Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

  7. Student decision making in large group discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kustusch, Mary Bridget; Ptak, Corey; Sayre, Eleanor C.; Franklin, Scott V.

    2015-04-01

    It is increasingly common in physics classes for students to work together to solve problems and perform laboratory experiments. When students work together, they need to negotiate the roles and decision making within the group. We examine how a large group of students negotiates authority as part of their two week summer College Readiness Program at Rochester Institute of Technology. The program is designed to develop metacognitive skills in first generation and Deaf and hard-of-hearing (DHH) STEM undergraduates through cooperative group work, laboratory experimentation, and explicit reflection exercises. On the first full day of the program, the students collaboratively developed a sign for the word ``metacognition'' for which there is not a sign in American Sign Language. This presentation will focus on three aspects of the ensuing discussion: (1) how the instructor communicated expectations about decision making; (2) how the instructor promoted student-driven decision making rather than instructor-driven policy; and (3) one student's shifts in decision making behavior. We conclude by discussing implications of this research for activity-based physics instruction.

  8. Fast Interactive Decision Support for Modifying Stowage Plans Using Binary Decision Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Rune Møller; Leknes, Eilif; Bebbington, Thomas

    Low cost containerized shipping requires high quality stowage plans. Scalable stowage planning optimization algorithms have been developed recently. All of these algorithms, however, produce monolithic solutions that are hard for stowage coordinators to modify, which is necessary in practice due ...... fast, complete, and backtrack-free decision support. Our computational results show that the approach can solve real-sized instances when breaking symmetries among similar containers...

  9. Real-life decision making in college students. I: Consistency across specific decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galotti, Kathleen M; Wiener, Hillary J D; Tandler, Jane M

    2014-01-01

    First-year undergraduates participated in a short-term longitudinal study of real-life decision making over their first 14 months of college. They were surveyed about 7 different decisions: choosing courses for an upcoming term (3 different terms), choosing an academic major (twice), planning for the upcoming summer, and planning for sophomore-year housing. Participants showed moderate levels of consistency in the options they considered and in the criteria they used to decide between options, with about half of the options or criteria being used at 2 different points on the decision repeatedly studied. Participants varied somewhat in structural consistency, the tendency to consider the same number of options or criteria across decisions. They also varied in the way they integrated information across decision-making tasks. We suggest that people attempt to keep the information demands of the task within workable limits, sometimes sacrificing consistency as a result.

  10. A complex systems approach to planning, optimization and decision making for energy networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, Jessica; Kempener, Ruud; Cohen, Brett; Petrie, Jim

    2008-01-01

    This paper explores a new approach to planning and optimization of energy networks, using a mix of global optimization and agent-based modeling tools. This approach takes account of techno-economic, environmental and social criteria, and engages explicitly with inherent network complexity in terms of the autonomous decision-making capability of individual agents within the network, who may choose not to act as economic rationalists. This is an important consideration from the standpoint of meeting sustainable development goals. The approach attempts to set targets for energy planning, by determining preferred network development pathways through multi-objective optimization. The viability of such plans is then explored through agent-based models. The combined approach is demonstrated for a case study of regional electricity generation in South Africa, with biomass as feedstock

  11. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-01-01

    Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

  12. Manager’s decision-making in organizations –empirical analysis of bureaucratic vs. learning approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Frenová

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the study of manager’s decision-making with respect to the basic model of learning organization, presented by P. Senge as a system model of management. On one hand, the empirical research was conducted in connection with key dimensions of organizational learning such as: 1. system thinking, 2. personal mastery, 3. mental models, 4. team learning, 5. building shared vision and 6. dynamics causes. On the other hand, the research was connected with the analysis of the bureaucratic logic of decision-making process, characterized by non-functional stability, inflexibility, individualism, power, authority and hierarchy, centralization, vagueness, fragmentariness. The objective of the research was to analyse to what extent manager’s decision–making is based on bureaucratic tools or organizational learning in either complex problem-solving or non-problemsolving decision-making. (MANOVA, method of the repeated measure, intersubject factor – situation: 1. non problematic, 2. problematic. The conclusion of analysis is that there are significant differences in character of solving of problem situation and non-problem situation decision-making: the bureaucratic attributes of decision-making are more intensive in problematic situations while learning approach is more actual in non-problematic situations. The results of our analysis have shown that managers who apply the learning organization attributes in their decision-making. are more successful in problem-solving.

  13. Perspectives about living on the horns of dilemmas: An analysis of gender factors related to superintendent decision-making and problem-solving

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter S. Polka

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The major focus of this paper is a gender-based analysis of school superintendent decision-making and problem-solving as well as an investigation of contemporary leadership dilemmas. The findings are based on responses from 258 superintendents of K-12 school districts in Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania collected over a period of three years (2009-2011. The researchers also conducted 18 comprehensive qualitative “face-to-face” interviews with self-selected superintendents who responded to the quantitative survey. The intended outcome of this article is for education policy makers, professors, and practitioners to comprehensively examine the extent and degree of various dilemmas confronting the Mid-Atlantic Region school superintendent sample and to evaluate the decision-making and problem-solving approaches used by them. The study results that are presented will serve as valuable references to not only individual superintendents but also to university administrator preparation professors and to state administrator licensure agencies because it is important for all aspiring superintendents to know the various issues associated with education leadership and the personal and professional dilemmas that they need to be prepared to face as they embark on a career to improve schooling in the United States.

  14. Age Effects and Heuristics in Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besedeš, Tibor; Deck, Cary; Sarangi, Sudipta; Shor, Mikhael

    2012-05-01

    Using controlled experiments, we examine how individuals make choices when faced with multiple options. Choice tasks are designed to mimic the selection of health insurance, prescription drug, or retirement savings plans. In our experiment, available options can be objectively ranked allowing us to examine optimal decision making. First, the probability of a person selecting the optimal option declines as the number of options increases, with the decline being more pronounced for older subjects. Second, heuristics differ by age with older subjects relying more on suboptimal decision rules. In a heuristics validation experiment, older subjects make worse decisions than younger subjects.

  15. Decision-making in administrative proceeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lončar Zoran J.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Administrative decision-making by official who conducting the administrative procedure may have a number of advantages over the decisionmaking by the senior official which manages by the administrative authority. However, to make that such a novelty have positive effects, it is necessary, next to the amendments to the Law on Administrative Procedure, to create a number of legal and factual assumptions, on whom are based highly politicized and professionalised administrative systems today. In order to create the legal conditions for the introduction of innovations in administrative proceedings in the Republic of Serbia, it is necessary to appropriately modify, firstly certain provisions of the Law on Public Administration, as the basic systemic regulation in this area, and then the Law on Civil Servants, as the basic status regulation, so the civil servant career become less dependent on the will of officials who manage by the administrative authorities. Also, it is essential to solve a number of other issues on a proper legal way, such as way of harmonizing administrative practice within the same administrative authority, a way of solving the appeals in the case of first instance decisions made by independent administrative authority, different rules for conflict of interest with the state officers who may be authorized officials in administrative proceedings, etc.

  16. Decision Making and Systems Thinking: Educational Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurtseven, M. Kudret; Buchanan, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Decision making in most universities is taught within the conventional OR/MS (Operations Research/Management Science) paradigm. This paradigm is known to be "hard" since it is consisted of mathematical tools, and normally suitable for solving structured problems. In complex situations the conventional OR/MS paradigm proves to be…

  17. Development of the decision make supporting system on incident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasamatsu, Mizuki; Hanada, Satoshi; Noda, Eisuke

    2017-01-01

    Decision Make Supporting System is designed to support appropriate decision made by top management in the nuclear severe conditions. With crisis response in nuclear power plant (NPP), information entanglement between sites and control centers during intense situations interfere with prompt and accurate decision making. This research started with that kind of background. In order to solve the issue of the information entanglement, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Inc. (MHI) carried out the development of the Decision Make Supporting System and the system applies the technology combining the human factors engineering (HFE) and information and communication technology (ICT). During the crisis response, various commands, reactions and communications in a human system need to be managed. Therefore, the combined HFE method including detailed task analysis, user experience (UX), graphic user interface (GUI) and related human-system interface (HSI) design method is applied to the design of the system. These design results systematize the functions that prevent interference with decision-making in the headquarters for incident management. This new solution as a system enhances the safety improvement of the NPP and contributes to develop the skills and abilities of the resources in the NPP. The system has three key features for supporting emergency situations: 'understanding the situation', 'planning the next action', and 'managing resources'. The system helps commanders and responders to grasp the whole situation and allows them to share information in real time to get a whole picture, and the system accumulates the data of the past events in the chronological order to understand correctly how they happened and plan the next action by using a knowledge database that MHI has been developed. If the unexpected event happens which are not in the incident scenario, the system provides support to formulate alternative strategies and measures. With this

  18. Business intelligence and financial decision-making: a theoretical approach

    OpenAIRE

    Mary Julieth Murillo Junco; Gustavo Cáceres Castellanos

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with a literature review about the origin, development and implementation of Business Intelligence focused directly to solving problems in the financial area of the different organizations. Wanted contextualize how it tools have been incorporated into the decision making processes of modern business. A feature of the way it makes decisions has to do with the rational use made of the information available, and it is in this field where information technology and communication ...

  19. Strategy and skills for moral decision-making in business

    OpenAIRE

    G.J. Rossouw

    1997-01-01

    Business Ethics is a truly interdisciplinary field of study. The specific issue of moral decision-making within the field of business ethics testifies to this. Recently some have made important contributions in this regard - contributions in which they emphasised that moral theory is not sufficient for moral decision-making. What is needed besides moral theory is problem-solving ability. In this article the same point is argued, but from a philosophical perspective. It is further indicated th...

  20. Feasible sampling plan for Bemisia tabaci control decision-making in watermelon fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Carlos Ho; Sarmento, Renato A; Pereira, Poliana S; Galdino, Tarcísio Vs; Santos, Fábio A; Silva, Joedna; Picanço, Marcelo C

    2017-11-01

    The silverleaf whitefly Bemisia tabaci is one of the most important pests of watermelon fields worldwide. Conventional sampling plans are the starting point for the generation of decision-making systems of integrated pest management programs. The aim of this study was to determine a conventional sampling plan for B. tabaci in watermelon fields. The optimal leaf for B. tabaci adult sampling was the 6 th most apical leaf. Direct counting was the best pest sampling technique. Crop pest densities fitted the negative binomial distribution and had a common aggregation parameter (K common ). The sampling plan consisted of evaluating 103 samples per plot. This sampling plan was conducted for 56 min, costing US$ 2.22 per sampling and with a 10% maximum evaluation error. The sampling plan determined in this study can be adopted by farmers because it enables the adequate evaluation of B. tabaci populations in watermelon fields (10% maximum evaluation error) and is a low-cost (US$ 2.22 per sampling), fast (56 min per sampling) and feasible (because it may be used in a standardized way throughout the crop cycle) technique. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  1. Advances in fuzzy decision making theory and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Skalna, Iwona; Gaweł, Bartłomiej; Basiura, Beata; Duda, Jerzy; Opiła, Janusz; Pełech-Pilichowski, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    This book shows how common operation management methods and algorithms can be extended to deal with vague or imprecise information in decision-making problems. It describes how to combine decision trees, clustering, multi-attribute decision-making algorithms and Monte Carlo Simulation with the mathematical description of imprecise or vague information, and how to visualize such information. Moreover, it discusses a broad spectrum of real-life management problems including forecasting the apparent consumption of steel products, planning and scheduling of production processes, project portfolio selection and economic-risk estimation. It is a concise, yet comprehensive, reference source for researchers in decision-making and decision-makers in business organizations alike.

  2. A full ranking for decision making units using ideal and anti-ideal points in DEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzegarinegad, A; Jahanshahloo, G; Rostamy-Malkhalifeh, M

    2014-01-01

    We propose a procedure for ranking decision making units in data envelopment analysis, based on ideal and anti-ideal points in the production possibility set. Moreover, a model has been introduced to compute the performance of a decision making unit for these two points through using common set of weights. One of the best privileges of this method is that we can make ranking for all decision making units by solving only three programs, and also solving these programs is not related to numbers of decision making units. One of the other advantages of this procedure is to rank all the extreme and nonextreme efficient decision making units. In other words, the suggested ranking method tends to seek a set of common weights for all units to make them fully ranked. Finally, it was applied for different sets holding real data, and then it can be compared with other procedures.

  3. Planning and conducting meetings effectively, part I: planning a meeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harolds, Jay

    2011-12-01

    Meetings are held by leaders for many purposes, including conveying information, raising morale, asking for opinions, brain storming, making people part of the problem-solving process, building trust, getting to a consensus, and making decisions. However, many meetings waste time, some undermine the leader's power, and some decrease morale. Part I of this series of articles gives some tips on basic planning for decision-making meetings. Part II of this series of articles analyzes selected components of decision-making meetings. Part III of this series will be on how the chairperson keeps decision-making meetings on track to make them efficient and productive.

  4. A hybrid multiple attribute decision making method for solving problems of industrial environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinesh Singh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The selection of appropriate alternative in the industrial environment is an important but, at the same time, a complex and difficult problem because of the availability of a wide range of alternatives and similarity among them. Therefore, there is a need for simple, systematic, and logical methods or mathematical tools to guide decision makers in considering a number of selection attributes and their interrelations. In this paper, a hybrid decision making method of graph theory and matrix approach (GTMA and analytical hierarchy process (AHP is proposed. Three examples are presented to illustrate the potential of the proposed GTMA-AHP method and the results are compared with the results obtained using other decision making methods.

  5. Decision making model and behavior of Iranian top managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliakbar Farhangi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aesthetics relates to felt meaning generated from sensory perceptions, and involves subjective,tacit knowledge rooted in feeling and emotion. We believe the aesthetics of management isimportant, but little understood, aspect of organizational life. We propose that followers use theiraesthetic senses in making these assessments.In this article we try to discover the role of aesthetic in management and then try to find out thestyle of about 130 industrial and governmental top managers in Iran using some technique such asquestionnaire and interview. The personality and character of them will be recognized by some testsuch as KAI, MBIT, CPS, Cooper-Smith self-esteem, management style, machiavellism, internaland external control, behavior, attitude and their methods in problem solving and decision making,and the effect of this ability in productivity of their organization.At the end of this study we find out that they are strongly thinking, judging and intuition but half ofthem are extraversion. their personality & character, attitude, skills, professions, perception are soimportant for management and in making a decision more than Two-thirds:-If they make a decision never change it.-Use their aesthetic to judge others and events or found out the right way if it is rational and there isenough evidence.-Uses his experience and knowledge for decision but asks others to suggest a solution or solve theproblem.

  6. Business intelligence and financial decision-making: a theoretical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Julieth Murillo Junco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a literature review about the origin, development and implementation of Business Intelligence focused directly to solving problems in the financial area of the different organizations. Wanted contextualize how it tools have been incorporated into the decision making processes of modern business. A feature of the way it makes decisions has to do with the rational use made of the information available, and it is in this field where information technology and communication play a role today

  7. Recent developemts in multiple criteria decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Zionts

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Problems involving more than one criterion abound. To help in the solution of such problems, a field of management science and operations research known as multiple criteria decision making (MCDM has emerged to help solve such problems. In this paper we discuss some recent developments in this important field.

  8. The solution of target assignment problem in command and control decision-making behaviour simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ni; Huai, Wenqing; Wang, Shaodan

    2017-08-01

    C2 (command and control) has been understood to be a critical military component to meet an increasing demand for rapid information gathering and real-time decision-making in a dynamically changing battlefield environment. In this article, to improve a C2 behaviour model's reusability and interoperability, a behaviour modelling framework was proposed to specify a C2 model's internal modules and a set of interoperability interfaces based on the C-BML (coalition battle management language). WTA (weapon target assignment) is a typical C2 autonomous decision-making behaviour modelling problem. Different from most WTA problem descriptions, here sensors were considered to be available resources of detection and the relationship constraints between weapons and sensors were also taken into account, which brought it much closer to actual application. A modified differential evolution (MDE) algorithm was developed to solve this high-dimension optimisation problem and obtained an optimal assignment plan with high efficiency. In case study, we built a simulation system to validate the proposed C2 modelling framework and interoperability interface specification. Also, a new optimisation solution was used to solve the WTA problem efficiently and successfully.

  9. Comparative approaches to studying strategy: towards an evolutionary account of primate decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosnan, Sarah F; Beran, Michael J; Parrish, Audrey E; Price, Sara A; Wilson, Bart J

    2013-07-18

    How do primates, humans included, deal with novel problems that arise in interactions with other group members? Despite much research regarding how animals and humans solve social problems, few studies have utilized comparable procedures, outcomes, or measures across different species. Thus, it is difficult to piece together the evolution of decision making, including the roots from which human economic decision making emerged. Recently, a comparative body of decision making research has emerged, relying largely on the methodology of experimental economics in order to address these questions in a cross-species fashion. Experimental economics is an ideal method of inquiry for this approach. It is a well-developed method for distilling complex decision making involving multiple conspecifics whose decisions are contingent upon one another into a series of simple decision choices. This allows these decisions to be compared across species and contexts. In particular, our group has used this approach to investigate coordination in New World monkeys, Old World monkeys, and great apes (including humans), using identical methods. We find that in some cases there are remarkable continuities of outcome, as when some pairs in all species solved a coordination game, the Assurance game. On the other hand, we also find that these similarities in outcomes are likely driven by differences in underlying cognitive mechanisms. New World monkeys required exogenous information about their partners' choices in order to solve the task, indicating that they were using a matching strategy. Old World monkeys, on the other hand, solved the task without exogenous cues, leading to investigations into what mechanisms may be underpinning their responses (e.g., reward maximization, strategy formation, etc.). Great apes showed a strong experience effect, with cognitively enriched apes following what appears to be a strategy. Finally, humans were able to solve the task with or without exogenous cues

  10. Altered moral decision-making in patients with idiopathic Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Jan B; Rott, Elisa; Ebersbach, Georg; Kalbe, Elke

    2015-10-01

    Moral decision-making essentially contributes to social conduct. Although patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) show deficits in (non-moral) decision making and related neuropsychological functions, i.e. executive functions, theory of mind (ToM), and empathy, moral decision-making has rarely been examined in PD patients. We examined possible alterations of moral decision-making and associated functions in PD. Twenty non-demented PD patients and 23 age- and education-matched healthy control participants were examined with tests that assess reasoning, executive functions (set-shifting and planning), ToM and empathy, decision-making under risk, and moral intuitions. Moral decision-making was assessed with a close-to-everyday moral dilemma paradigm that opposes socially oriented "altruistic" choices to self-beneficial "egoistic" choices in 20 moral dilemma short stories (10 high and 10 low emotional). Concurrently, electrodermal activity was recorded. PD patients made more egoistic moral decisions than healthy controls. Remarkably, while reasoning, planning and empathy correlated with moral decision-making in the control group, in the PD group neuropsychological functions and dopaminergic medication did not correlate with moral decisions. No evidence for reduced skin conductance responses in PD patients and no relationships between skin conductance responses and moral decisions were observed. This study provides evidence for moral decision-making dysfunctions in PD patients who made more egoistic moral decisions. As a possible underlying mechanism, reduced exercise of attentional control due to a dysfunctional interplay between the prefrontal cortex and the basal ganglia is discussed. Future research will have to determine the impact of PD patients' moral decision-making dysfunctions on everyday life and further determine correlates of the deficits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Decision-making under Ambiguity in Neurodegenerative Disease

    OpenAIRE

    Rogers, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Decision-making is a complex skill that is essential for daily life. Yet the complexities of this process are often overlooked in favour of more obvious cognitive deficits during neuropsychological assessment, such as memory or attention impairments. Decision-making involves affective and motivational aspects of executive functions (Happaney, Zelazo & Stuss, 2004). Executive functions include a range of abilities that can be divided into three categories: 1) goal setting and planning, 2) acti...

  12. Leadership, Training, and Gender Influences on Team Decision Making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bird, Megan

    1997-01-01

    This study explored the effects of gender of the leader, gender of the non-leader, and whether the leader or non-leader was trained on team decision making while solving a computerized Tower of Hanoi puzzle...

  13. Group Decision-Making for Hesitant Fuzzy Sets Based on Characteristic Objects Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahzad Faizi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available There are many real-life problems that, because of the need to involve a wide domain of knowledge, are beyond a single expert. This is especially true for complex problems. Therefore, it is usually necessary to allocate more than one expert to a decision process. In such situations, we can observe an increasing importance of uncertainty. In this paper, the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM method called the Characteristic Objects Method (COMET is extended to solve problems for Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making (MCGDM in a hesitant fuzzy environment. It is a completely new idea for solving problems of group decision-making under uncertainty. In this approach, we use L-R-type Generalized Fuzzy Numbers (GFNs to get the degree of hesitancy for an alternative under a certain criterion. Therefore, the classical COMET method was adapted to work with GFNs in group decision-making problems. The proposed extension is presented in detail, along with the necessary background information. Finally, an illustrative numerical example is provided to elaborate the proposed method with respect to the support of a decision process. The presented extension of the COMET method, as opposed to others’ group decision-making methods, is completely free of the rank reversal phenomenon, which is identified as one of the most important MCDM challenges.

  14. Shared decision making: empowering the bedside nurse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slack, Stephanie M; Boguslawski, Jean M; Eickhoff, Rachel M; Klein, Kristi A; Pepin, Teresa M; Schrandt, Kevin; Wise, Carrie A; Zylstra, Jody A

    2005-12-01

    Shared decision making is a process that has empowered specialty nurses at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN, to solve a practice concern. Staff nurses recognized a lack of concise, collated information available that described what nurses need to know when caring for patients receiving chemotherapy. Many aspects of the administration process were knowledge and experience based and not easily retrievable. The Hematology/Oncology/Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Practice Committee identified this as a significant practice issue. Ideas were brainstormed regarding how to make the information available to nursing colleagues. The Chemotherapy Yellow Pages is a resource that was developed to facilitate the rapid retrieval of pertinent information for bedside nurses. The content of this article outlines a'model of shared decision making and the processes used to address and resolve the practice concern.

  15. SCOPE – An Integrated Framework for Multi-Attribute Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen

    2004-01-01

    that are supported by a methodology of both a systemic and a systematic type. Specific use is made of operational research methods such as critical systems heuristics, scenario technique, stakeholder analysis and multi‐attribute decision making (MADM). To deal with issues of complexity and ambiguity, planning......This article presents an integrated framework for multi‐attribute decision making named SCOPE (System for Combined Planning and Evaluation) that was developed to assess infrastructure policy initiatives—in complex decision environments. The framework comprises scanning as well as assessment issues...

  16. How Are Distributed Groups Affected by an Imposed Structuring of their Decision-Making Process?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundell, Anders Lorentz; Hertzum, Morten

    2011-01-01

    Groups often suffer from ineffective communication and decision making. This experimental study compares distributed groups solving a preference task with support from either a communication system or a system providing both communication and a structuring of the decision-making process. Results...... show that groups using the latter system spend more time solving the task, spend more of their time on solution analysis, spend less of their time on disorganized activity, and arrive at task solutions with less extreme preferences. Thus, the type of system affects the decision-making process as well...... as its outcome. Notably, the task solutions arrived at by the groups using the system that imposes a structuring of the decision-making process show limited correlation with the task solutions suggested by the system on the basis of the groups’ explicitly stated criteria. We find no differences in group...

  17. A Survey of Multi-Objective Sequential Decision-Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roijers, D.M.; Vamplew, P.; Whiteson, S.; Dazeley, R.

    2013-01-01

    Sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives arise naturally in practice and pose unique challenges for research in decision-theoretic planning and learning, which has largely focused on single-objective settings. This article surveys algorithms designed for sequential

  18. Regulatory decision making by decision analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.

    1993-11-01

    The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)

  19. Negotiation and Decision Making with Collaborative Software: How MarineMap 'Changed the Game' in California's Marine Life Protected Act Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cravens, Amanda E

    2016-02-01

    Environmental managers and planners have become increasingly enthusiastic about the potential of decision support tools (DSTs) to improve environmental decision-making processes as information technology transforms many aspects of daily life. Discussions about DSTs, however, rarely recognize the range of ways software can influence users' negotiation, problem-solving, or decision-making strategies and incentives, in part because there are few empirical studies of completed processes that used technology. This mixed-methods study-which draws on data from approximately 60 semi-structured interviews and an online survey--examines how one geospatial DST influenced participants' experiences during a multi-year marine planning process in California. Results suggest that DSTs can facilitate communication by creating a common language, help users understand the geography and scientific criteria in play during the process, aid stakeholders in identifying shared or diverging interests, and facilitate joint problem solving. The same design features that enabled the tool to aid in decision making, however, also presented surprising challenges in certain circumstances by, for example, making it difficult for participants to discuss information that was not spatially represented on the map-based interface. The study also highlights the importance of the social context in which software is developed and implemented, suggesting that the relationship between the software development team and other participants may be as important as technical software design in shaping how DSTs add value. The paper concludes with considerations to inform the future use of DSTs in environmental decision-making processes.

  20. Negotiation and Decision Making with Collaborative Software: How MarineMap `Changed the Game' in California's Marine Life Protected Act Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cravens, Amanda E.

    2016-02-01

    Environmental managers and planners have become increasingly enthusiastic about the potential of decision support tools (DSTs) to improve environmental decision-making processes as information technology transforms many aspects of daily life. Discussions about DSTs, however, rarely recognize the range of ways software can influence users' negotiation, problem-solving, or decision-making strategies and incentives, in part because there are few empirical studies of completed processes that used technology. This mixed-methods study—which draws on data from approximately 60 semi-structured interviews and an online survey—examines how one geospatial DST influenced participants' experiences during a multi-year marine planning process in California. Results suggest that DSTs can facilitate communication by creating a common language, help users understand the geography and scientific criteria in play during the process, aid stakeholders in identifying shared or diverging interests, and facilitate joint problem solving. The same design features that enabled the tool to aid in decision making, however, also presented surprising challenges in certain circumstances by, for example, making it difficult for participants to discuss information that was not spatially represented on the map-based interface. The study also highlights the importance of the social context in which software is developed and implemented, suggesting that the relationship between the software development team and other participants may be as important as technical software design in shaping how DSTs add value. The paper concludes with considerations to inform the future use of DSTs in environmental decision-making processes.

  1. Enhanced Simulated Annealing for Solving Aggregate Production Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Rizam Abu Bakar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulated annealing (SA has been an effective means that can address difficulties related to optimisation problems. SA is now a common discipline for research with several productive applications such as production planning. Due to the fact that aggregate production planning (APP is one of the most considerable problems in production planning, in this paper, we present multiobjective linear programming model for APP and optimised by SA. During the course of optimising for the APP problem, it uncovered that the capability of SA was inadequate and its performance was substandard, particularly for a sizable controlled APP problem with many decision variables and plenty of constraints. Since this algorithm works sequentially then the current state will generate only one in next state that will make the search slower and the drawback is that the search may fall in local minimum which represents the best solution in only part of the solution space. In order to enhance its performance and alleviate the deficiencies in the problem solving, a modified SA (MSA is proposed. We attempt to augment the search space by starting with N+1 solutions, instead of one solution. To analyse and investigate the operations of the MSA with the standard SA and harmony search (HS, the real performance of an industrial company and simulation are made for evaluation. The results show that, compared to SA and HS, MSA offers better quality solutions with regard to convergence and accuracy.

  2. Medical decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.; Keren, G.; Wu, G.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level,

  3. Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, R.L.

    2005-01-01

    While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the

  4. Evaluation of Cloud Services: A Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Group Decision Making Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santoso Wibowo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making method for evaluating the performance of Cloud services in an uncertain environment. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used to better model the subjectivity and imprecision in the performance evaluation process. An effective algorithm is developed based on the technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution and the Choquet integral operator for adequately solving the performance evaluation problem. An example is presented for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method for solving the multi-criteria group decision making problem in real situations.

  5. Home health nurse decision-making regarding visit intensity planning for newly admitted patients: a qualitative descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irani, Elliane; Hirschman, Karen B; Cacchione, Pamela Z; Bowles, Kathryn H

    2018-04-13

    Despite patients referred to home health having diverse and complex needs, it is unknown how nurses develop personalized visit plans. In this qualitative descriptive study, we interviewed 26 nurses from three agencies about their decision-making process to determine visit intensity and analyzed data using directed content analysis. Following a multifactorial assessment of the patient, nurses relied on their experience and their agency's protocols to develop the personalized visit plan. They revised the plan based on changes in the patient's clinical condition, engagement, and caregiver availability. Findings suggest strategies to improve visit planning and positively influence outcomes of home health patients.

  6. Family decision-making during food buying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Maria Kümpel

    Decision-making during food buying is a joint family activity involving both parents and children. Children manage to achieve a high degree of influence on many decisions, among other things, because they participate actively and help out doing various tasks. These decisions may turn out...... to be a choice of unhealthy food. Many decisions are made at the supermarket or other food shops, and food packaging is often used in the comparison of food products. Only rarely do families use nutritional information on food labels due to several problems in the understanding of these labels; this may result...... in difficulties in distinguishing among healthy and unhealthy food. Both parents and children being active in the decision process may lead to conflicts due to gaps in preference such as between healthy and unhealthy food. Families solve these conflicts via open communication patterns and a use of various...

  7. Decision making based on optical excitation transfer via near-field interactions between quantum dots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naruse, Makoto; Nomura, Wataru; Ohtsu, Motoichi; Aono, Masashi; Sonnefraud, Yannick; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Kim, Song-Ju

    2014-01-01

    Optical near-field interactions between nanostructured matters, such as quantum dots, result in unidirectional optical excitation transfer when energy dissipation is induced. This results in versatile spatiotemporal dynamics of the optical excitation, which can be controlled by engineering the dissipation processes and exploited to realize intelligent capabilities such as solution searching and decision making. Here, we experimentally demonstrate the ability to solve a decision making problem on the basis of optical excitation transfer via near-field interactions by using colloidal quantum dots of different sizes, formed on a geometry-controlled substrate. We characterize the energy transfer behavior due to multiple control light patterns and experimentally demonstrate the ability to solve the multi-armed bandit problem. Our work makes a decisive step towards the practical design of nanophotonic systems capable of efficient decision making, one of the most important intellectual attributes of the human brain.

  8. Decision making based on optical excitation transfer via near-field interactions between quantum dots

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naruse, Makoto, E-mail: naruse@nict.go.jp [Photonic Network Research Institute, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, 4-2-1 Nukui-kita, Koganei, Tokyo 184-8795 (Japan); Nomura, Wataru; Ohtsu, Motoichi [Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Systems, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 2-11-16 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656 (Japan); Aono, Masashi [Earth-Life Science Institute, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguru-ku, Tokyo 152-8550 (Japan); PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 4-1-8 Honcho, Kawaguchi-shi, Saitama 332-0012 (Japan); Sonnefraud, Yannick; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge [Université Grenoble Alpes, Inst. NEEL, F-38000 Grenoble (France); CNRS, Inst. NEEL, F-38042 Grenoble (France); Kim, Song-Ju [WPI Center for Materials Nanoarchitectonics, National Institute for Materials Science, 1-1 Namiki, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0044 (Japan)

    2014-10-21

    Optical near-field interactions between nanostructured matters, such as quantum dots, result in unidirectional optical excitation transfer when energy dissipation is induced. This results in versatile spatiotemporal dynamics of the optical excitation, which can be controlled by engineering the dissipation processes and exploited to realize intelligent capabilities such as solution searching and decision making. Here, we experimentally demonstrate the ability to solve a decision making problem on the basis of optical excitation transfer via near-field interactions by using colloidal quantum dots of different sizes, formed on a geometry-controlled substrate. We characterize the energy transfer behavior due to multiple control light patterns and experimentally demonstrate the ability to solve the multi-armed bandit problem. Our work makes a decisive step towards the practical design of nanophotonic systems capable of efficient decision making, one of the most important intellectual attributes of the human brain.

  9. Decision making as a window on cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shadlen, Michael N; Kiani, Roozbeh

    2013-10-30

    A decision is a commitment to a proposition or plan of action based on information and values associated with the possible outcomes. The process operates in a flexible timeframe that is free from the immediacy of evidence acquisition and the real time demands of action itself. Thus, it involves deliberation, planning, and strategizing. This Perspective focuses on perceptual decision making in nonhuman primates and the discovery of neural mechanisms that support accuracy, speed, and confidence in a decision. We suggest that these mechanisms expose principles of cognitive function in general, and we speculate about the challenges and directions before the field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A Multi-layer Dynamic Model for Coordination Based Group Decision Making in Water Resource Allocation and Scheduling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei; Zhang, Xingnan; Li, Chenming; Wang, Jianying

    Management of group decision-making is an important issue in water source management development. In order to overcome the defects in lacking of effective communication and cooperation in the existing decision-making models, this paper proposes a multi-layer dynamic model for coordination in water resource allocation and scheduling based group decision making. By introducing the scheme-recognized cooperative satisfaction index and scheme-adjusted rationality index, the proposed model can solve the problem of poor convergence of multi-round decision-making process in water resource allocation and scheduling. Furthermore, the problem about coordination of limited resources-based group decision-making process can be solved based on the effectiveness of distance-based group of conflict resolution. The simulation results show that the proposed model has better convergence than the existing models.

  11. Decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2011-01-01

    A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

  12. A fuzzy set decision making model applied to electric power systems operation planning; Um modelo de decisao baseado em conjuntos nebulosos aplicado ao planejamento da operacao de sistemas de energia eletrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valenca, Mauricio Mendonca

    1993-05-01

    The power system static operation planning has a main objective the determination of performance strategies which satisfy operational criteria. A fuzzy set decision model which takes the load attainment and the compromise between optimality and critical operational constraints into account is presented. The prime characteristic of this methodology is the incorporation of the planner`s preferences structure in a decision process modeled by fuzzy sets. A routine of optimal power flow calculation is used as a computational tool for solving the nonlinear model of the electric power system and for defining the universe of discourse of the decision-making problem. tests were carried on a 30-bus IEEE system in order to find a compromise solution of electric operational goal versus reactive power generation limits. Results and conclusions are presented. (author) 28 refs., 32 figs.

  13. Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doubravsky, Karel; Dohnal, Mirko

    2015-01-01

    Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

  14. Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karel Doubravsky

    Full Text Available Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (rechecked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

  15. Guidance Tools for Use in Nuclear Material Management Decisions Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, G. V.; Baker, D. J.; Sorenson, K. B.; Boeke, S. G.

    2002-02-26

    This paper describes the results of Recommendation 14 of the Integrated Nuclear Materials Management Plan (INMMP) which was the product of a management initiative at the highest levels of the Department of Energy responding to a congressional directive to accelerate the work of achieving integration and cutting long-term costs associated with the management of nuclear materials, with the principal focus on excess materials. The INMMP provided direction to ''Develop policy-level decision support tools to support long-term planning and decision making.'' To accomplish this goal a team from the Savannah River Site, Sandia National Laboratories, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), and the U.S. Department of Energy experienced in the decision-making process developed a Guidebook to Decision-Making Methods. The goal of the team organized to implement Recommendation 14 was to instill transparency, consistency, rigor, and discipline in the DOE decision process. The guidebook introduces a process and a selection of proven methods for disciplined decision-making so that the results are clearer, more transparent, and easier for reviewers to understand and accept. It was written to set a standard for a consistent decision process.

  16. The Influences of Middle School Mathematics Teachers' Practical Rationality on Instructional Decision Making Regarding the Common Core State Standards for Mathematical Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolewski-McMahon, Lauren M.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the influences of various facets of middle school mathematics teachers' practical rationality on their instructional decision making as they plan to enact the Common Core State Standards for Mathematical Practice, CCSS-MP1 (perseverance in problem solving) and CCSS-MP3 (communicating and critiquing). The…

  17. Shared Decision-Making in Youth Mental Health Care: Using the Evidence to Plan Treatments Collaboratively.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, David A; Jensen-Doss, Amanda

    2016-12-02

    The shared decision-making (SDM) model is one in which providers and consumers of health care come together as collaborators in determining the course of care. The model is especially relevant to youth mental health care, when planning a treatment frequently entails coordinating both youth and parent perspectives, preferences, and goals. The present article first provides the historical context of the SDM model and the rationale for increasing our field's use of SDM when planning psychosocial treatments for youth and families. Having established the potential utility of SDM, the article then discusses how to apply the SDM model to treatment planning for youth psychotherapy, proposing a set of steps consistent with the model and considerations when conducting SDM with youth and families.

  18. The importance of decision-making aids in the energy area: from planning to the management of disorder and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taverdet-Popiolek, N.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to situate decision-making aids in the energy area in France and show how the tools have changed over time as a function of the changing economic and political context. The challenges faced, already important in the post-war era due to reconstruction, are now huge due to supply constraints and global warming. While it is the State's responsibility to address these issues, as the players in the energy area currently are mainly in the private sphere, we look at decisions taken both by the State and by companies. Schematically, we compare two major periods: that of post-war planning through the eighties, and that of risk management, which has been current practice since market deregulation. From the methodological standpoint, we show that decision-making aids borrow tools from varied disciplines ranging from economics through management to futurology and long range planning. (author)

  19. Screening for prostate cancer with the prostate-specific antigen test: are patients making informed decisions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Dell, K J; Volk, R J; Cass, A R; Spann, S J

    1999-09-01

    The benefits of early detection of prostate cancer are uncertain, and the American College of Physicians and the American Academy of Family Physicians recommend individual decision making in prostate cancer screening. This study reports the knowledge of male primary care patients about prostate cancer and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing and examines how that knowledge is related to PSA testing, preferences for testing in the future, and desire for involvement in physician-patient decision making. The sample included 160 men aged 45 to 70 years with no history of prostate cancer who presented for care at a university-based family medicine clinic. Before scheduled office visits, patients completed a questionnaire developed for this study that included a 10-question measure of prostate cancer knowledge, the Deber-Kraestchmer Problem-Solving Decision-Making Scale, sociodemographic indicators, and questions on PSA testing. In general, patients who were college graduates were more knowledgeable about prostate cancer and early detection than those with a high school education or less. Aside from college graduates, most patients could not identify the principle advantages and disadvantages of PSA testing. Patients indicating previous or future plans for PSA testing demonstrated greater knowledge than other patients. Desire for involvement in decision making varied by patient education but was not related to past PSA testing. Patients lack knowledge about prostate cancer and early detection. This knowledge deficit may impede the early detection of prostate cancer and is a barrier to making an informed decision about undergoing PSA testing.

  20. Shared decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...

  1. Information needs for water resources decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sellers, J.

    1993-01-01

    Water and related resources planning and decision-making have developed to the state of multiple objective and/or multiple criteria analysis using complicated systems analysis. The objective of this paper is to indicate the major components of information needed to facilitate the planning process for resource utilization, and to provide desirable outputs from management schemes. The process could best be described as the proper development of Management Information Systems (MIS) or Decision Support Systems (DDS). Data and information systems are never completed and must be continually updated and modified. The exact composition of any system depends also upon the general type of decision techniques being used. A brief outline of the decision process is given with the remainder of the paper dealing with the types of information needed to support the decision system. (author). 34 refs

  2. Ethical decision making within the bureaucratic context: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Kathryn

    2003-01-01

    Balancing the polarized notions of quality and quantity of service and care is a challenge for the 21st century health and social service system. The expectation of transparent decision making at both the policy and the practice level of case management has forced practitioners to seek guidance in ethical decision making. Case management, as a system, has potential to lead this new practice approach by incorporating the principles of ethical decision making in planning and coordinating care. A recent case study of ethical decision making within the bureaucratic context offers some insight and learning and may help inform future practice.

  3. Decision Making about Computer Acquisition and Use in American Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Henry Jay

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the centralization and decentralization of decision making about computer use in elementary and secondary schools based on results of a 1989 national survey. Results unexpectedly indicate that more successful programs are the result of districtwide planning than individual teacher or school-level decision making. (LRW)

  4. Errors in Aviation Decision Making: Bad Decisions or Bad Luck?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Martin, Lynne; Davison, Jeannie; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Despite efforts to design systems and procedures to support 'correct' and safe operations in aviation, errors in human judgment still occur and contribute to accidents. In this paper we examine how an NDM (naturalistic decision making) approach might help us to understand the role of decision processes in negative outcomes. Our strategy was to examine a collection of identified decision errors through the lens of an aviation decision process model and to search for common patterns. The second, and more difficult, task was to determine what might account for those patterns. The corpus we analyzed consisted of tactical decision errors identified by the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) from a set of accidents in which crew behavior contributed to the accident. A common pattern emerged: about three quarters of the errors represented plan-continuation errors, that is, a decision to continue with the original plan despite cues that suggested changing the course of action. Features in the context that might contribute to these errors were identified: (a) ambiguous dynamic conditions and (b) organizational and socially-induced goal conflicts. We hypothesize that 'errors' are mediated by underestimation of risk and failure to analyze the potential consequences of continuing with the initial plan. Stressors may further contribute to these effects. Suggestions for improving performance in these error-inducing contexts are discussed.

  5. Intersubjective decision-making for computer-aided forging technology design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanyukov, S. I.; Konovalov, A. V.; Muizemnek, O. Yu.

    2017-12-01

    We propose a concept of intersubjective decision-making for problems of open-die forging technology design. The intersubjective decisions are chosen from a set of feasible decisions using the fundamentals of the decision-making theory in fuzzy environment according to the Bellman-Zadeh scheme. We consider the formalization of subjective goals and the choice of membership functions for the decisions depending on subjective goals. We study the arrangement of these functions into an intersubjective membership function. The function is constructed for a resulting decision, which is chosen from a set of feasible decisions. The choice of the final intersubjective decision is discussed. All the issues are exemplified by a specific technological problem. The considered concept of solving technological problems under conditions of fuzzy goals allows one to choose the most efficient decisions from a set of feasible ones. These decisions correspond to the stated goals. The concept allows one to reduce human participation in automated design. This concept can be used to develop algorithms and design programs for forging numerous types of forged parts.

  6. Libre courseware for Bayesian decision making

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Suzdaleva, Evgenia

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 2 (2005), s. 1-3 ISSN 1860-7470 Grant - others:Commission EU(XE) 110330-CP-1-2003-1-ES-MINERVA-M Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : software tools * education * decision making Subject RIV: JC - Computer Hardware ; Software

  7. Strategic enterprise resource planning in a health-care system using a multicriteria decision-making model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chang Won; Kwak, N K

    2011-04-01

    This paper deals with strategic enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a health-care system using a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) model. The model is developed and analyzed on the basis of the data obtained from a leading patient-oriented provider of health-care services in Korea. Goal criteria and priorities are identified and established via the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Goal programming (GP) is utilized to derive satisfying solutions for designing, evaluating, and implementing an ERP. The model results are evaluated and sensitivity analyses are conducted in an effort to enhance the model applicability. The case study provides management with valuable insights for planning and controlling health-care activities and services.

  8. Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

    2012-01-01

    This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

  9. Memory Effect on Adaptive Decision Making with a Chaotic Semiconductor Laser

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takatomo Mihana

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the effect of a memory parameter on the performance of adaptive decision making using a tug-of-war method with the chaotic oscillatory dynamics of a semiconductor laser. We experimentally generate chaotic temporal waveforms of the semiconductor laser with optical feedback and apply them for adaptive decision making in solving a multiarmed bandit problem that aims at maximizing the total reward from slot machines whose hit probabilities are dynamically switched. We examine the dependence of making correct decisions on different values of the memory parameter. The degree of adaptivity is found to be enhanced with a smaller memory parameter, whereas the degree of convergence to the correct decision is higher for a larger memory parameter. The relations among the adaptivity, environmental changes, and the difficulties of the problem are also discussed considering the requirement of past decisions. This examination of ultrafast adaptive decision making highlights the importance of memorizing past events and paves the way for future photonic intelligence.

  10. Health literacy, numeracy, and other characteristics associated with hospitalized patients' preferences for involvement in decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Goggins, KM; Wallston, KA; Nwosu, S; Schildcrout, JS; Castel, L; Kripalani, S

    2014-01-01

    Little research has examined the association of health literacy and numeracy with patients' preferred involvement in the problem-solving and decision-making process in the hospital. Using a sample of 1,249 patients hospitalized with cardiovascular disease from the Vanderbilt Inpatient Cohort Study (VICS), we assessed patients' preferred level of involvement using responses to two scenarios of differing symptom severity from the Problem-Solving Decision-Making (PSDM) Scale. Using multivariable...

  11. Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

    CERN Document Server

    Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

    2012-01-01

    Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

  12. Health literacy, numeracy, and other characteristics associated with hospitalized patients' preferences for involvement in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goggins, Kathryn M; Wallston, Kenneth A; Nwosu, Samuel; Schildcrout, Jonathan S; Castel, Liana; Kripalani, Sunil

    2014-01-01

    Little research has examined the association of health literacy and numeracy with patients' preferred involvement in the problem-solving and decision-making process in the hospital. Using a sample of 1,249 patients hospitalized with cardiovascular disease from the Vanderbilt Inpatient Cohort Study (VICS), we assessed patients' preferred level of involvement using responses to two scenarios of differing symptom severity from the Problem-Solving Decision-Making Scale. Using multivariable modeling, we determined the relationship of health literacy, subjective numeracy, and other patient characteristics with preferences for involvement in decisions, and how this differed by scenario. The authors found that patients with higher levels of health literacy desired more participation in the problem-solving and decision-making process, as did patients with higher subjective numeracy skills, greater educational attainment, female gender, less perceived social support, or greater health care system distrust (pparticipate more in the decision-making process when the hypothetical symptom they were experiencing was less severe (i.e., they deferred more to their physician when the hypothetical symptom was more severe). These findings underscore the role that patient characteristics, especially health literacy and numeracy, play in decisional preferences among hospitalized patients.

  13. Decision-making for tracheostomy in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS): a retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceriana, Piero; Surbone, Sara; Segagni, Daniele; Schreiber, Annia; Carlucci, Annalisa

    2017-11-01

    ALS patients should discuss the issue of tracheostomy before the onset of terminal respiratory failure. While the process of shared decision-making is desirable, there are few data on the practical application of this real-life situation. To determine how a decision-making process is actually carried out, we analysed the episodes of acute respiratory failure preceding tracheostomy. We studied the charts of a group of ALS patients after tracheostomy. An interview focusing on the existence of anticipated directives was carried out. Tracheostomies were classified as planned or unplanned according to the presence of a decision plan. A total of 209 ALS patients were cared for during a three-year period. Of these patients, 34 (16%) were tracheotomised. In 38% of cases, tracheostomy was planned, 41% were unplanned, and 21% remained undiagnosed. A minority of ALS patients make a voluntary decision for tracheostomy before the procedure is conducted. The advising process of care still presents limits that have been thus far poorly addressed. In the future, we will need to develop guidelines for the timing and content of the shared-decision making process.

  14. Application of System Dynamics model as decision making tool in urban planning process toward stabilizing carbon dioxide emissions from cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fong, Wee-Kean; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Lun, Yu-Fat

    2009-01-01

    In spite of the fact that cities are the main sources of CO 2 emissions, presently there are still no specific measures directly addressing the global warming issue in the urban planning process in Malaysia. The present study thus aims to shed new light in the urban planning sector in Malaysia by adopting System Dynamics Model as one of the decision making tools in the urban planning process, with specific considerations on the future CO 2 emission trends. This paper presented projections of future CO 2 emission trends based on the case of Iskandar Development Region of Malaysia, under various options of urban policies, using the System Dynamics Model. The projections demonstrated the capability of the said model in serving as a decision making tool in the urban planning process, with specific reference to CO 2 emissions from cities. Recommendations have been made on the possible approach of adopting the model in the process of Structure Plan study. If the current model was successfully adopted in the urban planning process in Malaysia, it will mark the first step for Malaysia in taking specific considerations on the issues of CO 2 emissions and global warming in the urban planning process. (author)

  15. Insights into water managers' perception and handling of uncertainties - a study of the role of uncertainty in practitioners' planning and decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höllermann, Britta; Evers, Mariele

    2017-04-01

    Planning and decision-making under uncertainty is common in water management due to climate variability, simplified models, societal developments, planning restrictions just to name a few. Dealing with uncertainty can be approached from two sites, hereby affecting the process and form of communication: Either improve the knowledge base by reducing uncertainties or apply risk-based approaches to acknowledge uncertainties throughout the management process. Current understanding is that science more strongly focusses on the former approach, while policy and practice are more actively applying a risk-based approach to handle incomplete and/or ambiguous information. The focus of this study is on how water managers perceive and handle uncertainties at the knowledge/decision interface in their daily planning and decision-making routines. How they evaluate the role of uncertainties for their decisions and how they integrate this information into the decision-making process. Expert interviews and questionnaires among practitioners and scientists provided an insight into their perspectives on uncertainty handling allowing a comparison of diverse strategies between science and practice as well as between different types of practitioners. Our results confirmed the practitioners' bottom up approach from potential measures upwards instead of impact assessment downwards common in science-based approaches. This science-practice gap may hinder effective uncertainty integration and acknowledgement in final decisions. Additionally, the implementation of an adaptive and flexible management approach acknowledging uncertainties is often stalled by rigid regulations favouring a predict-and-control attitude. However, the study showed that practitioners' level of uncertainty recognition varies with respect to his or her affiliation to type of employer and business unit, hence, affecting the degree of the science-practice-gap with respect to uncertainty recognition. The level of working

  16. New Interoperable Tools to Facilitate Decision-Making to Support Community Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Communities, regional planning authorities, regulatory agencies, and other decision-making bodies do not currently have adequate access to spatially explicit information crucial to making decisions that allow them to consider a full accounting of the costs, benefits, and trade-of...

  17. Transport fleet sizing by using make and buy decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Stojanović Đurđica; Nikoličić Svetlana; Miličić Milica

    2011-01-01

    Cost reduction is among the main quoted reasons for logistics outsourcing, while transport capacities and operations are among the most outsourced logistics areas. However, according to transaction costs theory, there is often room for transport insourcing. Furthermore, nowadays many authors stress that mixed solutions can give better results than “make” or “buy” alternatives. “Make or buy” decision-making normative models, methods, and procedures in transport planning are not much expl...

  18. Decision Making and Cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...

  19. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range......, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any...... specific guidelines on how to include the strategic impacts; it merely suggests describing the impacts verbally and keeping them in mind during the decision process. A coherent, well-structured, flexible, straight forward evaluation method, taking into account all the requirements of a transport...

  20. Cognitive skills and nuclear power plant operational decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenfeld, Isabelle

    1998-01-01

    The author reports a project research which aimed at identifying cognitive skills required for severe accident management. It is based on an analytical model of decision making for severe accident conditions. Moreover, scenarios were developed to reveal specific decision making difficulties and to test cognitive skills associated with each of the model's elements. The model used to identify cognitive skills comprised six general processes to describe decision-making performance: monitor/detect, interpret current state, determine implications, plan, control, feedback. For each of these processes, situational factors, cognitive limitations and biases, individual cognitive skills and team cognitive skills have been identified

  1. A framework for multi-stakeholder decision-making and conflict resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    We propose a decision-making framework to compute compromise solutions that balance conflicting priorities of multiple stakeholders on multiple objectives. In our setting, we shape the stakeholder dis-satisfaction distribution by solving a conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) minimiz...

  2. Real-life decision making in college students. II: Do individual differences show reliable effects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galotti, Kathleen M; Tandler, Jane M; Wiener, Hillary J D

    2014-01-01

    First-year undergraduates participated in a short-term longitudinal study of real-life decision making over their first 14 months of college. They were surveyed about 7 different decisions: choosing courses for upcoming terms (on 3 different occasions), choosing an academic major (twice), planning for the upcoming summer, and planning for sophomore-year housing. They also completed a survey of self-reported decision-making styles and the Need for Cognition survey (Cacioppo & Petty, 1982) to assess their focus on rationality and enjoyment of analytic thinking. Results showed few statistically significant correlations between stylistic measures and behavioral measures of decision making, in either the amount of information considered or the way in which the information integration tracked predictions of linear models of decision making applied to each participant's data. However, there were consistent correlations, across the 7 decisions, between stylistic measures and affective reactions to, or retrospective descriptions of, episodes of decision making. We suggest that decision-making styles instruments may better reflect the construction of narratives of self as a decision maker more than they do actual behavior during decision making.

  3. Distributed and organized decision making under resource boundedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawaragi, Tetsuo

    1994-01-01

    The coming bottleneck to be overcome in the era of the distributed and open-architectured environment will be the establishment of the rational design and coordination of the total system where multiple decision makers, problem solvers and automated machinery components coexist interacting with each other. In such an environment, they are not achieving some absolute standard of performance with unlimited amounts of resources nor with simple algorithms, but is doing as well as possible given what resources one has. In this article, we focus on the potentials of decision theory as a tool for tackling with the limited rationality under resource boundedness. First, the bottlenecks for establishing the organized and distributed decision making are summarized, and the importance of the formalization of decision activities of intelligent agents is stressed to establish an efficient and effective cooperation by distributed and organized decision making and/or problem solving. Some of the practical systems developed based on such a principle are reviewed briefly with respect to the real-time man-machine collaboration and the cooperative computational framework for the intelligent mobile robots. (author)

  4. Instructional decision making of high school science teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carver, Jeffrey S.

    The instructional decision-making processes of high school science teachers have not been well established in the literature. Several models for decision-making do exist in other teaching disciplines, business, computer game programming, nursing, and some fields of science. A model that incorporates differences in science teaching that is consistent with constructivist theory as opposed to conventional science teaching is useful in the current climate of standards-based instruction that includes an inquiry-based approach to teaching science. This study focuses on three aspects of the decision-making process. First, it defines what factors, both internal and external, influence high school science teacher decision-making. Second, those factors are analyzed further to determine what instructional decision-making processes are articulated or demonstrated by the participants. Third, by analyzing the types of decisions that are made in the classroom, the classroom learning environments established as a result of those instructional decisions are studied for similarities and differences between conventional and constructivist models. While the decision-making process for each of these teachers was not clearly articulated by the teachers themselves, the patterns that establish the process were clearly exhibited by the teachers. It was also clear that the classroom learning environments that were established were, at least in part, established as a result of the instructional decisions that were made in planning and implementation of instruction. Patterns of instructional decision-making were different for each teacher as a result of primary instructional goals that were different for each teacher. There were similarities between teachers who exhibited more constructivist epistemological tendencies as well as similarities between teachers who exhibited a more conventional epistemology. While the decisions that will result from these two camps may be different, the six step

  5. PRESCRIPTIVE MODEL FOR THE STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES FROM THE ROMANIAN ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razvan STEFANESCU

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a prescriptive model for the strategic decision-making from the Romanianenterprises. Within the paper there will be described the phases implied in solving a strategicproblem. Finally, there will be presented a strategic decision from a Romanian enterprise, elaboratedon the base of the model.

  6. Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Method Based on Neutrosophic Soft Rough Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Akram

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Soft sets (SSs, neutrosophic sets (NSs, and rough sets (RSs are different mathematical models for handling uncertainties, but they are mutually related. In this research paper, we introduce the notions of soft rough neutrosophic sets (SRNSs and neutrosophic soft rough sets (NSRSs as hybrid models for soft computing. We describe a mathematical approach to handle decision-making problems in view of NSRSs. We also present an efficient algorithm of our proposed hybrid model to solve decision-making problems.

  7. A Multi-criteria neutrosophic group decision making metod based TOPSIS for supplier selection

    OpenAIRE

    Şahin, Rıdvan; Yiğider, Muhammed

    2014-01-01

    The process of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) is of determining the best choice among all of the probable alternatives. The problem of supplier selection on which decision maker has usually vague and imprecise knowledge is a typical example of multi criteria group decision-making problem. The conventional crisp techniques has not much effective for solving MCDM problems because of imprecise or fuzziness nature of the linguistic assessments. To find the exact values for MCDM problems...

  8. Decision Making: The Toughest Job in the World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bullis, Robert V.

    1977-01-01

    The four phases in rational decision-making are (1) diagnosis, (2) discovering alternative solutions, (3) analyzing and comparing alternatives, and (4) selecting the proper alternative or plan to follow. (Author)

  9. Participation in decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EG Valoyi

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which employees would like to participate in decision making concerning various organisational issues, especially those concerning: the work itself, working conditions, human resources issues, and corporate policy and planning. The sample consisted of 146 participants, including managers, middle managers, and junior officials from a South African development corporation. A questionnaire to measure employees' desire to participate in decision making was specially constructed for this investigation. It has found that employees with higher academic qualifications were more desirous to participate in decision-making at all levels than employees with lower academic qualifications. This was also true for employees in higher job grades than in lower job grades. Men were more desirous to participate in decision making than women. The implications of the findings are discussed. Opsomming Die doel van die huidige studie was om vas te stel in watter mate werknemers sal wil deelneem aan die besluit- nameproses van organisasies, veral rakende die volgende sake: die werk self, werksomstandighede, menslike hulpbronaangeleenthede en korporatiewe beleid en beplanning. Die steekproef het uit 146 deelnemers, insluitende bestuurders, middelvlakbestuurders en junior amptenare van'n Suid Afrikaanse ontwikkelingskorporasie, bestaan. nVraelys wat die begeerte van werknemers meet om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem, is spesiaal vir die doel van hierdie ondersoek, ontwerp. Dit is bevind dat werknemers met hoer akademiese kwalifikasies meer begerig is om aan die besluitnameproses op alle vlakke deel te neem as werknemers met laer akademiese kwalifikasies. Dit was ook waar vir werknemers in hoervlakposte vergeleke met werknemers in laervlakposte. Mans was ook meer begerig om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem as vroue. Die implikasies van die studie word bespreek.

  10. Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

    2013-01-01

    We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

  11. Application of HTA research on policy decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngkong, Sitaporn

    2014-05-01

    This article provides an overview of the potential uses of health technology assessment (HTA) in health technology or health intervention-related policy decision-making. It summarises the role of HTA in policy planning, health system investment, price negotiation, development of clinical practice guidelines, and communication with health professionals. While the multifaceted nature of HTA means that some aspects of the data can result in conflicting conclusions, the comprehensive approach of HTA is still recommended. To help minimise the potential conflicts within HTA data, a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach is recommended as a way to assess a number of decision criteria simultaneously. A combination of HTA with MCDA allows policy decision-making to be undertaken in an empirically rigorous and rational way. This combination can be used to support policy decision-makers in Thailand and help them prioritise topics for assessment and make informed health benefit package coverage decisions. This approach enhances the legitimacy of policy decisions by increasing the transparency, systematic nature, and inclusiveness of the process.

  12. Application of preference selection index method for decision making over the design stage of production system life cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh Attri

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The life cycle of production system shows the progress of production system from the inception to the termination of the system. During each stage, mainly in the design stage, certain strategic decisions have to be taken. These decisions are more complex as the decision makers have to assess a wide range of alternatives based on a set of conflicting criteria. As the decision making process is found to be unstructured, characterized by domain dependent knowledge, there is a need to apply an efficient multi-criteria decision making (MCDM tool to help the decision makers in making correct decisions. This paper explores the application of a novel MCDM method i.e. Preference selection index (PSI method to solve various decision-making problems that are generally encountered in the design stage of production system life cycle. To prove the potentiality, applicability and accuracy of PSI method in solving decision making problem during the design stage of production system life cycle, five examples are cited from the literature and are compared with the results obtained by the past researchers.

  13. Permutation based decision making under fuzzy environment using Tabu search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Bashiri

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the techniques, which are used for Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM is the permutation. In the classical form of permutation, it is assumed that weights and decision matrix components are crisp. However, when group decision making is under consideration and decision makers could not agree on a crisp value for weights and decision matrix components, fuzzy numbers should be used. In this article, the fuzzy permutation technique for MCDM problems has been explained. The main deficiency of permutation is its big computational time, so a Tabu Search (TS based algorithm has been proposed to reduce the computational time. A numerical example has illustrated the proposed approach clearly. Then, some benchmark instances extracted from literature are solved by proposed TS. The analyses of the results show the proper performance of the proposed method.

  14. Gender relations and reproductive decision making in Honduras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speizer, Ilene S; Whittle, Lisa; Carter, Marion

    2005-09-01

    Gender differences influence decision making about reproductive health. Most information on reproductive health decision making in Latin America has come from women's reports of men's involvement. Data were collected in Honduras in 2001 through two national surveys that used independent samples of men aged 15-59 years and women aged 15-49. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify factors associated with male-centered decision-making attitudes and behaviors regarding family size and family planning use. Overall, 25% of women and 28% of men said that men alone should be responsible for at least one of these reproductive decisions, and 27% of women and 21% of men said that the man in their household made one or both decisions. For women, having no children and being in a consensual union were each associated with holding male-centered decision-making attitudes; having less than a secondary education, being of medium or low socioeconomic status and living in a rural area were each associated with male-centered decision making. Among men, having less than secondary education and being in a consensual union were each associated with male-centered decision-making attitudes and behavior. Women who had ever used or were currently using modern methods were significantly less likely to hold attitudes supporting male-centered decision-making than were those who relied on traditional methods and those who had never used a modern method. Programs should recognize power imbalances between genders that affect women's ability to meet their stated fertility desires. In rural areas, programs should target men, encouraging them to communicate with their wives on reproductive decisions.

  15. Dispositional Optimism as a Correlate of Decision-Making Styles in Adolescence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Magnano

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the numerous psychological areas in which optimism has been studied, including career planning, only a small amount of research has been done to investigate the relationship between optimism and decision-making styles. Consequently, we have investigated the role of dispositional optimism as a correlate of different decision-making styles, in particular, positive for effective styles and negative for ineffective ones (doubtfulness, procrastination, and delegation. Data were gathered through questionnaires administered to 803 Italian adolescents in their last 2 years of high schools with different fields of study, each at the beginning stages of planning for their professional future. A paper questionnaire was completed containing measures of dispositional optimism and career-related decision styles, during a vocational guidance intervention conducted at school. Data were analyzed using stepwise multiple regression. Results supported the proposed model by showing optimism to be a strong correlate of decision-making styles, thereby offering important intervention guidelines aimed at modifying unrealistically negative expectations regarding their future and helping students learn adaptive decision-making skills.

  16. Green Decision Making: Sustainable Transport and Systemic Planning (SP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen

    and infrastructure assessment and on the methodology and process of systemic planning (SP). SP theory development has interchanged with practical application and testing of the SP approach in a large number of cases. The word systemic in SP indicates that complex planning problems and provision of decision support...... in today’s strategic planning needs a focus on what may be addressed as systemic insights in balance with more conventional, systematically-based findings where causal linkages can be modelled and made use of. In practice this means that SP is based on a study-specific combination of hard (quantitative......) and soft (qualitative) operations research (OR) methods; especially the latter have a function as regards knowledge generation that relates to obtaining systemic insights. Furthermore, SP applies a process that drives group-based learning forward. The group should be formed with the different stakeholder...

  17. A Cognitive Modeling Approach to Strategy Formation in Dynamic Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabine Prezenski

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making is a high-level cognitive process based on cognitive processes like perception, attention, and memory. Real-life situations require series of decisions to be made, with each decision depending on previous feedback from a potentially changing environment. To gain a better understanding of the underlying processes of dynamic decision-making, we applied the method of cognitive modeling on a complex rule-based category learning task. Here, participants first needed to identify the conjunction of two rules that defined a target category and later adapt to a reversal of feedback contingencies. We developed an ACT-R model for the core aspects of this dynamic decision-making task. An important aim of our model was that it provides a general account of how such tasks are solved and, with minor changes, is applicable to other stimulus materials. The model was implemented as a mixture of an exemplar-based and a rule-based approach which incorporates perceptual-motor and metacognitive aspects as well. The model solves the categorization task by first trying out one-feature strategies and then, as a result of repeated negative feedback, switching to two-feature strategies. Overall, this model solves the task in a similar way as participants do, including generally successful initial learning as well as reversal learning after the change of feedback contingencies. Moreover, the fact that not all participants were successful in the two learning phases is also reflected in the modeling data. However, we found a larger variance and a lower overall performance of the modeling data as compared to the human data which may relate to perceptual preferences or additional knowledge and rules applied by the participants. In a next step, these aspects could be implemented in the model for a better overall fit. In view of the large interindividual differences in decision performance between participants, additional information about the underlying

  18. A Cognitive Modeling Approach to Strategy Formation in Dynamic Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prezenski, Sabine; Brechmann, André; Wolff, Susann; Russwinkel, Nele

    2017-01-01

    Decision-making is a high-level cognitive process based on cognitive processes like perception, attention, and memory. Real-life situations require series of decisions to be made, with each decision depending on previous feedback from a potentially changing environment. To gain a better understanding of the underlying processes of dynamic decision-making, we applied the method of cognitive modeling on a complex rule-based category learning task. Here, participants first needed to identify the conjunction of two rules that defined a target category and later adapt to a reversal of feedback contingencies. We developed an ACT-R model for the core aspects of this dynamic decision-making task. An important aim of our model was that it provides a general account of how such tasks are solved and, with minor changes, is applicable to other stimulus materials. The model was implemented as a mixture of an exemplar-based and a rule-based approach which incorporates perceptual-motor and metacognitive aspects as well. The model solves the categorization task by first trying out one-feature strategies and then, as a result of repeated negative feedback, switching to two-feature strategies. Overall, this model solves the task in a similar way as participants do, including generally successful initial learning as well as reversal learning after the change of feedback contingencies. Moreover, the fact that not all participants were successful in the two learning phases is also reflected in the modeling data. However, we found a larger variance and a lower overall performance of the modeling data as compared to the human data which may relate to perceptual preferences or additional knowledge and rules applied by the participants. In a next step, these aspects could be implemented in the model for a better overall fit. In view of the large interindividual differences in decision performance between participants, additional information about the underlying cognitive processes from

  19. Multi-criteria decision making--an approach to setting priorities in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, F F; Trotta, L T; Gomes, L F

    1999-12-15

    The objective of this paper is to present a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach to support public health decision making that takes into consideration the fuzziness of the decision goals and the behavioural aspect of the decision maker. The approach is used to analyse the process of health technology procurement in a University Hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The method, known as TODIM, relies on evaluating alternatives with a set of decision criteria assessed using an ordinal scale. Fuzziness in generating criteria scores and weights or conflicts caused by dealing with different viewpoints of a group of decision makers (DMs) are solved using fuzzy set aggregation rules. The results suggested that MCDM models, incorporating fuzzy set approaches, should form a set of tools for public health decision making analysis, particularly when there are polarized opinions and conflicting objectives from the DM group. Copyright 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Cognitive Biases and Structural Failures in United States Foreign Policy: Explaining Decision-Making Dissonance in Phase IV Policy and Plans for Iraq

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hafner, Ferinand

    2007-01-01

    .... This thesis applies four decision-making perspectives the rational actor, organizational process, bureaucratic politics, and individual level approaches to the Phase IV planning process to analyze...

  1. Disentangling participation power and decision-making in participatory design

    CERN Document Server

    Bratteteig, Tone

    2014-01-01

    Providing a critical view on user participation in design, disentangling decision making and power in design, this book uses fieldwork material from two large participatory design projects: one experimental in the field of urban planning, the other a product development project within health care. Addressing power issues in participatory design is critical to providing a realistic view of the possibilities and limitations of participation. Design is decision-making: during a design process a huge number of decisions?taken before the designers end up with a design result - an artefact or system

  2. Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Carly N; Inayatullah, Sohail; Burgman, Mark A; Sutherland, William J; Wintle, Brendan A

    2014-09-01

    Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Planning of renewables schemes: Deliberative and fair decision-making on landscape issues instead of reproachful accusations of non-cooperation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolsink, Maarten

    2007-01-01

    The main issues related to successful implementation policies concern the socio-economic institutions that are conditional to planning in the energy policy domain, but also in the domain of spatial planning. Successful investments and the siting of renewable power plants eventually determine the success rate of national efforts in establishing renewable capacity. Central planning usually has several objectives and these often have a detrimental effect on the goal of renewable energy application. Current problems related to implementation decisions concerning wind power schemes are an example to those who will be faced by other renewable power plants, notably biomass. Regarding community acceptance of wind power schemes, the visual evaluation of the impact of wind power on the values of the landscape is by far the most dominant factor in explaining opposition or support. Type of landscape fully overshadows other attitudinal attributes, as well as other visual and scenic factors such as the design of wind turbines and wind farms, and the number and the size of turbines. Planning regimes and decision-making practices that really enhance the implementation processes of renewable energy require 'strong' ecological modernization. This means institutional changes that create involvement and trust of actors at the actual implementation level. Local opposition cannot be explained by the egotistical motives of local residents. When the inclination to behave according to (supposed) backyard motives is investigated, the scale to measure this phenomenon appears to indicate commitment to equity issues and fairness of decision-making. Hence, for wind power, local involvement to represent the local values of site-specific landscapes is crucial. For other renewables the source-specific features are different, but conflicts can be expected as well because the fairness of implementation decisions will be equally significant

  4. Probabilistic scenario-based decision making for water resources planning and management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dong, C.

    2014-01-01

    Uncertainty is an unavoidable part of decision making. Decisions always have to be made before perfect knowledge on their consequences is known. However, there is no ‘perfect knowledge’ in hindsight. To research uncertainty and take actions proactively becomes the challenge to scientists and

  5. New Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making Method Based on Vague Set Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Kuo-Sui Lin

    2016-01-01

    In light of the deficiencies and limitations for existing score functions, Lin has proposed a more effective and reasonable new score function for measuring vague values. By using Lin’s score function and a new weighted aggregation score function, an algorithm for multi-criteria group decision-making method was proposed to solve vague set based group decision-making problems under vague environments. Finally, a numerical example was illustrated to show the effectiveness of the proposed multi-...

  6. Intention-Aware Autonomous Driving Decision-Making in an Uncontrolled Intersection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weilong Song

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Autonomous vehicles need to perform social accepted behaviors in complex urban scenarios including human-driven vehicles with uncertain intentions. This leads to many difficult decision-making problems, such as deciding a lane change maneuver and generating policies to pass through intersections. In this paper, we propose an intention-aware decision-making algorithm to solve this challenging problem in an uncontrolled intersection scenario. In order to consider uncertain intentions, we first develop a continuous hidden Markov model to predict both the high-level motion intention (e.g., turn right, turn left, and go straight and the low level interaction intentions (e.g., yield status for related vehicles. Then a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP is built to model the general decision-making framework. Due to the difficulty in solving POMDP, we use proper assumptions and approximations to simplify this problem. A human-like policy generation mechanism is used to generate the possible candidates. Human-driven vehicles’ future motion model is proposed to be applied in state transition process and the intention is updated during each prediction time step. The reward function, which considers the driving safety, traffic laws, time efficiency, and so forth, is designed to calculate the optimal policy. Finally, our method is evaluated in simulation with PreScan software and a driving simulator. The experiments show that our method could lead autonomous vehicle to pass through uncontrolled intersections safely and efficiently.

  7. Rational Decision-Making in Inhibitory Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenoy, Pradeep; Yu, Angela J.

    2011-01-01

    An important aspect of cognitive flexibility is inhibitory control, the ability to dynamically modify or cancel planned actions in response to changes in the sensory environment or task demands. We formulate a probabilistic, rational decision-making framework for inhibitory control in the stop signal paradigm. Our model posits that subjects maintain a Bayes-optimal, continually updated representation of sensory inputs, and repeatedly assess the relative value of stopping and going on a fine temporal scale, in order to make an optimal decision on when and whether to go on each trial. We further posit that they implement this continual evaluation with respect to a global objective function capturing the various reward and penalties associated with different behavioral outcomes, such as speed and accuracy, or the relative costs of stop errors and go errors. We demonstrate that our rational decision-making model naturally gives rise to basic behavioral characteristics consistently observed for this paradigm, as well as more subtle effects due to contextual factors such as reward contingencies or motivational factors. Furthermore, we show that the classical race model can be seen as a computationally simpler, perhaps neurally plausible, approximation to optimal decision-making. This conceptual link allows us to predict how the parameters of the race model, such as the stopping latency, should change with task parameters and individual experiences/ability. PMID:21647306

  8. Rational decision-making in inhibitory control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenoy, Pradeep; Yu, Angela J

    2011-01-01

    An important aspect of cognitive flexibility is inhibitory control, the ability to dynamically modify or cancel planned actions in response to changes in the sensory environment or task demands. We formulate a probabilistic, rational decision-making framework for inhibitory control in the stop signal paradigm. Our model posits that subjects maintain a Bayes-optimal, continually updated representation of sensory inputs, and repeatedly assess the relative value of stopping and going on a fine temporal scale, in order to make an optimal decision on when and whether to go on each trial. We further posit that they implement this continual evaluation with respect to a global objective function capturing the various reward and penalties associated with different behavioral outcomes, such as speed and accuracy, or the relative costs of stop errors and go errors. We demonstrate that our rational decision-making model naturally gives rise to basic behavioral characteristics consistently observed for this paradigm, as well as more subtle effects due to contextual factors such as reward contingencies or motivational factors. Furthermore, we show that the classical race model can be seen as a computationally simpler, perhaps neurally plausible, approximation to optimal decision-making. This conceptual link allows us to predict how the parameters of the race model, such as the stopping latency, should change with task parameters and individual experiences/ability.

  9. Temporal characteristics of decisions in hospital encounters: a threshold for shared decision making? A qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ofstad, Eirik H; Frich, Jan C; Schei, Edvin; Frankel, Richard M; Gulbrandsen, Pål

    2014-11-01

    To identify and characterize physicians' statements that contained evidence of clinically relevant decisions in encounters with patients in different hospital settings. Qualitative analysis of 50 videotaped encounters from wards, the emergency room (ER) and outpatient clinics in a department of internal medicine at a Norwegian university hospital. Clinical decisions could be grouped in a temporal order: decisions which had already been made, and were brought into the encounter by the physician (preformed decisions), decisions made in the present (here-and-now decisions), and decisions prescribing future actions given a certain course of events (conditional decisions). Preformed decisions were a hallmark in the ward and conditional decisions a main feature of ER encounters. Clinical decisions related to a patient-physician encounter spanned a time frame exceeding the duration of the encounter. While a distribution of decisions over time and space fosters sharing and dilution of responsibility between providers, it makes the decision making process hard to access for patients. In order to plan when and how to involve patients in decisions, physicians need increased awareness of when clinical decisions are made, who usually makes them, and who should make them. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Decision making and cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P

    2015-01-01

    We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  11. The application of financial options theory to electric utility decision making in integrated resource planning and maintenance shutdowns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felder, F.

    1995-01-01

    Increased competition in wholesale power generation will allow electric utilities to use financial models to improve their decision making. This competition will result in the creation of electricity spot, futures, and forward markets, which will provide necessary information for utility executives to used advance financial tools, such as random walk models and options theory. These models will allow executives to place a value on risk. Once this value is known, executives can determine how best to manage that risk, whether by entering into financial transactions, adjusting their operational and planning decisions, or both

  12. Incorporating BDI Agents into Human-Agent Decision Making Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamphorst, Bart; van Wissen, Arlette; Dignum, Virginia

    Artificial agents, people, institutes and societies all have the ability to make decisions. Decision making as a research area therefore involves a broad spectrum of sciences, ranging from Artificial Intelligence to economics to psychology. The Colored Trails (CT) framework is designed to aid researchers in all fields in examining decision making processes. It is developed both to study interaction between multiple actors (humans or software agents) in a dynamic environment, and to study and model the decision making of these actors. However, agents in the current implementation of CT lack the explanatory power to help understand the reasoning processes involved in decision making. The BDI paradigm that has been proposed in the agent research area to describe rational agents, enables the specification of agents that reason in abstract concepts such as beliefs, goals, plans and events. In this paper, we present CTAPL: an extension to CT that allows BDI software agents that are written in the practical agent programming language 2APL to reason about and interact with a CT environment.

  13. A decision support system for a multi stakeholder’s decision process in a Portuguese National Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Garcia-Gonzalo

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: In this paper, we present a decision support system (DSS to support decision making where different stakeholders have to generate landscape and forest level strategic plans. We further present an interactive approach that may take advantage of a posteriori preference modelling (i.e. Pareto frontier technique to facilitate the specification of the levels of achievement of various objectives.Area of study: The approach was applied to one planning cycle of a real world study case, the Leiria National Forest in Portugal. The Leiria National Forest, a managed area of approximately eleven thousand hectares in which 8,679 hectares are even aged stands of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait aimed at the production of wood.Material and methods: The interactive approach, at first, tries to generate Pareto efficient frontiers for different objectives. Then, multiple decision makers are involved in the process to seek an agreement towards the definition of a consensual strategic plan.Main results: The system developed in this article integrates an information management subsystem, a module to generate alternative management regimes, growth model routines and a decision module that generates and solves mathematical formulations. It also provides a module to display reports and view the resulting solutions (management plans. We also build the Pareto frontier for different criteria. The results show that the proposed DSS can help solve strategic planning problems subject to sustainable management constraints where people organize themselves and participate jointly to manage their natural resources.Research highlights: The interactive approach facilitates the involvement of multiple stakeholders in the decision making process.Keywords: decision support system; participatory planning; linear programming; mixed integer goal programming; sustainable forest management.

  14. Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen

    2015-01-01

    Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes t...

  15. Cognitive Reflection Versus Calculation in Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Aleksandr eSinayev; Ellen ePeters

    2015-01-01

    Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes t...

  16. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

  17. Decision Making in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  18. Application of Decision Making and Team Training Research to Operational Training. A Translative Technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DECISION MAKING , * GROUP DYNAMICS, NAVAL TRAINING, TRANSFER OF TRAINING, SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, CLASSIFICATION, PROBLEM SOLVING, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, SUBMARINES, SIMULATORS, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), UNDERSEA WARFARE.

  19. Pandemic influenza preparedness: an ethical framework to guide decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gibson Jennifer L

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Planning for the next pandemic influenza outbreak is underway in hospitals across the world. The global SARS experience has taught us that ethical frameworks to guide decision-making may help to reduce collateral damage and increase trust and solidarity within and between health care organisations. Good pandemic planning requires reflection on values because science alone cannot tell us how to prepare for a public health crisis. Discussion In this paper, we present an ethical framework for pandemic influenza planning. The ethical framework was developed with expertise from clinical, organisational and public health ethics and validated through a stakeholder engagement process. The ethical framework includes both substantive and procedural elements for ethical pandemic influenza planning. The incorporation of ethics into pandemic planning can be helped by senior hospital administrators sponsoring its use, by having stakeholders vet the framework, and by designing or identifying decision review processes. We discuss the merits and limits of an applied ethical framework for hospital decision-making, as well as the robustness of the framework. Summary The need for reflection on the ethical issues raised by the spectre of a pandemic influenza outbreak is great. Our efforts to address the normative aspects of pandemic planning in hospitals have generated interest from other hospitals and from the governmental sector. The framework will require re-evaluation and refinement and we hope that this paper will generate feedback on how to make it even more robust.

  20. Decision making, procedural compliance, and outcomes definition in U.S. forest service planning processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, Marc J.; Predmore, S. Andrew

    2011-01-01

    The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) dictates a process of analyzing and disclosing the likely impacts of proposed agency actions on the human environment. This study addresses two key questions related to NEPA implementation in the U.S. Forest Service: 1) how do Interdisciplinary (ID) team leaders and decision makers conceptualize the outcomes of NEPA processes? And 2), how does NEPA relate to agency decision making? We address these questions through two separate online surveys that posed questions about recently completed NEPA processes - the first with the ID team leaders tasked with carrying out the processes, and the second with the line officers responsible for making the processes' final decisions. Outcomes of NEPA processes include impacts on public relations, on employee morale and team functioning, on the achievement of agency goals, and on the achievement of NEPA's procedural requirements (disclosure) and substantive intent (minimizing negative environmental impacts). Although both tended to view public relations outcomes as important, decision makers' perceptions of favorable outcomes were more closely linked to the achievement of agency goals and process efficiency than was the case for ID team leaders. While ID team leaders' responses suggest that they see decision making closely integrated with the NEPA process, decision makers more commonly decoupled decision making from the NEPA process. These findings suggest a philosophical difference between ID team leaders and decision makers that may pose challenges for both the implementation and the evaluation of agency NEPA. We discuss the pros and cons of integrating NEPA with decision making or separating the two. We conclude that detaching NEPA from decision making poses greater risks than integrating them.

  1. Applying decision-making techniques to Civil Engineering Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fam F. Abdel-malak

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM techniques are found to be useful tools in project managers’ hands to overcome decision-making (DM problems in Civil Engineering Projects (CEPs. The main contribution of this paper includes selecting and studying the popular MCDM techniques that uses different and wide ranges of data types in CEPs. A detailed study including advantages and pitfalls of using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP and Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Fuzzy TOPSIS is introduced. Those two techniques are selected for the purpose of forming a package that covers most available data types in CEPs. The results indicated that AHP has a structure which simplifies complicated problems, while Fuzzy TOPSIS uses the advantages of linguistic variables to solve the issue of undocumented data and ill-defined problems. Furthermore, AHP is a simple technique that depends on pairwise comparisons of factors and natural attributes, beside it is preferable for widely spread hierarchies. On the other hand, Fuzzy TOPSIS needs more information but works well for the one-tier decision tree as well as it shows more flexibility to work in fuzzy environments. The two techniques have the facility to be integrated and combined in a new module to support most of the decisions required in CEPs. Keywords: Decision-making, AHP, Fuzzy TOPSIS, CBA, Civil Engineering Projects

  2. Reducing fatigue damage for ships in transit through structured decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, J.M.; Fackler, P.L.; Pacifici, K.; Murphy, K.D.; Nichols, J.D.

    2014-01-01

    Research in structural monitoring has focused primarily on drawing inference about the health of a structure from the structure’s response to ambient or applied excitation. Knowledge of the current state can then be used to predict structural integrity at a future time and, in principle, allows one to take action to improve safety, minimize ownership costs, and/or increase the operating envelope. While much time and effort has been devoted toward data collection and system identification, research to-date has largely avoided the question of how to choose an optimal maintenance plan. This work describes a structured decision making (SDM) process for taking available information (loading data, model output, etc.) and producing a plan of action for maintaining the structure. SDM allows the practitioner to specify his/her objectives and then solves for the decision that is optimal in the sense that it maximizes those objectives. To demonstrate, we consider the problem of a Naval vessel transiting a fixed distance in varying sea-state conditions. The physics of this problem are such that minimizing transit time increases the probability of fatigue failure in the structural supports. It is shown how SDM produces the optimal trip plan in the sense that it minimizes both transit time and probability of failure in the manner of our choosing (i.e., through a user-defined cost function). The example illustrates the benefit of SDM over heuristic approaches to maintaining the vessel.

  3. Decision-making: Theory and practice

    OpenAIRE

    SM Turpin; MA Marais

    2004-01-01

    This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, ...

  4. The Relations between Decision Making in Social Relationships and Decision Making Styles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, Enver

    2008-01-01

    The research reported in this paper aimed to examine the relationships between decisiveness in social relationships, and the decision-making styles of a group of university students and to investigate the contributions of decision-making styles in predicting decisiveness in social relationship (conflict resolution, social relationship selection…

  5. Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eroğlu Başak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish by Deniz (2004. In the data analysis, descriptive statics, anova, t test and Tukey test have been utilized. There is a significant difference between athletes’ marital status, age groups, experiences in orienteering sports and self-esteem in decision making, decision making styles (p<0.05. According to the research results, it has been determined that married orienteering athletes prefer both self-esteem in decision making and vigilance decision-making style more often than the single athletes that mostly prefer procrastination decision-making style. Also, it has been found out that as the athletes’ age and experiences in sports increase, selfesteem and decision-making styles are affected more positively as well.

  6. Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie, Mary

    2010-11-01

    Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A Descriptive Study of Decision-Making Conversations during Pediatric Intensive Care Unit Family Conferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael A; Clayman, Marla L; Frader, Joel; Arenson, Melanie; Haber-Barker, Natalie; Ryan, Claire; Emanuel, Linda; Michelson, Kelly

    2018-06-19

    Little is known about how decision-making conversations occur during pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) family conferences (FCs). Describe the decision-making process and implementation of shared decision making (SDM) during PICU FCs. Observational study. University-based tertiary care PICU, including 31 parents and 94 PICU healthcare professionals involved in FCs. We recorded, transcribed, and analyzed 14 PICU FCs involving decision-making discussions. We used a modified grounded theory and content analysis approach to explore the use of traditionally described stages of decision making (DM) (information exchange, deliberation, and determining a plan). We also identified the presence or absence of predefined SDM elements. DM involved the following modified stages: information exchange; information-oriented deliberation; plan-oriented deliberation; and determining a plan. Conversations progressed through stages in a nonlinear manner. For the main decision discussed, all conferences included a presentation of the clinical issues, treatment alternatives, and uncertainty. A minority of FCs included assessing the family's understanding (21%), assessing the family's need for input from others (28%), exploring the family's desired decision-making role (35%), and eliciting the family's opinion (42%). In the FCs studied, we found that DM is a nonlinear process. We also found that several SDM elements that could provide information about parents' perspectives and needs did not always occur, identifying areas for process improvement.

  8. Emotions in Risk Assessment and Decision Making Processes During Craft Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Groth

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally subjective experiences and emotions have been overlooked in the practice of scientific research. In the field of design and craft research too, feelings and emotions have been considered as interfering with the rigour of research. However, as a result of findings in neuroscience, a new understanding has emerged, providing emotions a central role in risk assessment and decision making processes. This has implications also for how we understand craft practice. In this practice-led research, a craft practitioner analysed five video-recordings of herself while throwing clay blindfolded. The researcher-practitioner specifically studied critical incidents in the throwing process and made a detailed analysis of how sensory experiences and emotions guided her in risk assessment, decision making, and problem solving during the clay-throwing sessions. She found that her tactile experience gave her important clues on the condition of the material and its consequent possibilities at different stages. These experiences in turn affected her emotions in either positive or negative ways, affecting her risk assessment, decision making, and problem solving activities. This research has shown that sensory experiences and emotions influence the craft making process and are thus important elements in the expertise of the craftsperson. The role of such emotions remains to be studied further in the expertise of researchers in general.

  9. Involving youth in program decision-making: how common and what might it do for youth?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akiva, Thomas; Cortina, Kai S; Smith, Charles

    2014-11-01

    The strategy of sharing program decision-making with youth in youth programs, a specific form of youth-adult partnership, is widely recommended in practitioner literature; however, empirical study is relatively limited. We investigated the prevalence and correlates of youth program decision-making practices (e.g., asking youth to help decide what activities are offered), using single-level and multilevel methods with a cross-sectional dataset of 979 youth attending 63 multipurpose after-school programs (average age of youth = 11.4, 53 % female). The prevalence of such practices was relatively high, particularly for forms that involved low power sharing such as involving youth in selecting the activities a program offers. Hierarchical linear modeling revealed positive associations between youth program decision-making practices and youth motivation to attend programs. We also found positive correlations between decision-making practices and youth problem-solving efficacy, expression efficacy, and empathy. Significant interactions with age suggest that correlations with problem solving and empathy are more pronounced for older youth. Overall, the findings suggest that involving youth in program decision-making is a promising strategy for promoting youth motivation and skill building, and in some cases this is particularly the case for older (high school-age) youth.

  10. The effects of emotion on pilot decision-making: A neuroergonomic approach to aviation safety

    OpenAIRE

    Causse, Mickaël; Dehais, Frédéric; Péran, Patrice; Sabatini, Umberto; Pastor, Josette

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Emotion or stress can jeopardize decision-making relevance and cognitive functioning. In this paper we examine plan continuation error (PCE), an erroneous behavior defined as a "failure to revise a flight plan despite emerging evidence that suggests it is no longer safe" (Orasanu, Ames, Martin, & Davison, 2001). Our hypothesis is that negative emotional consequences attached to the go-around decision provoke a temporary impairment of the decision-making process and fav...

  11. [Interoception and decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohira, Hideki

    2015-02-01

    We sometimes make decisions relying not necessarily on deliberative thoughts but on intuitive and emotional processes in uncertain situations. The somatic marker hypothesis proposed by Damasio argued that interoception, which means bodily responses such as sympathetic activity, can be represented in the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and can play critical roles in decision-making. Though this hypothesis has been criticized in its theoretical and empirical aspects, recent studies are expanding the hypothesis to elucidate multiple bodily responses including autonomic, endocrine, and immune activities that affect decision-making. In addition, cumulative findings suggest that the anterior insula where the inner model of interoception is represented can act as an interface between the brain and body in decision-making. This article aims to survey recent findings on the brain-body interplays underlying decision-making, and to propose hypotheses on the significance of the body in decision-making.

  12. Local Management of Schools: Rationality and Decision-Making in the Employment of Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huckman, Lynda; Hill, Tim

    1994-01-01

    Examines the use of rational planning techniques in five English elementary schools. Discusses the decision-making processes used to determine the employment and remuneration of teachers. Finds that the decree of control over decision making was related closely to the extent to which decisions would contribute to solutions of other school…

  13. A Model of Supervisor Decision-Making in the Accommodation of Workers with Low Back Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Kristman, Vicki; Shaw, William S; Soklaridis, Sophie; Reguly, Paula

    2016-09-01

    Purpose To explore supervisors' perspectives and decision-making processes in the accommodation of back injured workers. Methods Twenty-three semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with supervisors from eleven Canadian organizations about their role in providing job accommodations. Supervisors were identified through an on-line survey and interviews were recorded, transcribed and entered into NVivo software. The initial analyses identified common units of meaning, which were used to develop a coding guide. Interviews were coded, and a model of supervisor decision-making was developed based on the themes, categories and connecting ideas identified in the data. Results The decision-making model includes a process element that is described as iterative "trial and error" decision-making. Medical restrictions are compared to job demands, employee abilities and available alternatives. A feasible modification is identified through brainstorming and then implemented by the supervisor. Resources used for brainstorming include information, supervisor experience and autonomy, and organizational supports. The model also incorporates the experience of accommodation as a job demand that causes strain for the supervisor. Accommodation demands affect the supervisor's attitude, brainstorming and monitoring effort, and communication with returning employees. Resources and demands have a combined effect on accommodation decision complexity, which in turn affects the quality of the accommodation option selected. If the employee is unable to complete the tasks or is reinjured during the accommodation, the decision cycle repeats. More frequent iteration through the trial and error process reduces the likelihood of return to work success. Conclusion A series of propositions is developed to illustrate the relationships among categories in the model. The model and propositions show: (a) the iterative, problem solving nature of the RTW process; (b) decision resources necessary

  14. The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    strategies for the investment manager in relations to Nigeria stock market ... Forecasting generally involves using information from the past to make decision ..... that both number of share in unit and number of deal in share cannot account.

  15. Does the Medicare Part D Decision-Making Experience Differ by Rural/Urban Location?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henning-Smith, Carrie; Casey, Michelle; Moscovice, Ira

    2017-01-01

    Although much has been written about Medicare Part D enrollment, much less is known about beneficiaries' personal experiences with choosing a Part D plan, especially among rural residents. This study sought to address this gap by examining geographic differences in Part D enrollees' perceptions of the plan decision-making process, including their confidence in their choice, their knowledge about the program, and their satisfaction with available information. We used data from the 2012 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey and included adults ages 65 and older who were enrolled in Part D at the time of the survey (n = 3,706). We used ordered logistic regression to model 4 outcomes based on beneficiaries' perceptions of the Part D decision-making and enrollment process, first accounting only for differences by rurality, then adjusting for sociodemographic, health, and coverage characteristics. Overall, half of all beneficiaries were not very confident in their Part D knowledge. Rural beneficiaries had lower odds of being confident in the plan they chose and in being satisfied with the amount of information available to them during the decision-making process. After adjusting for all covariates, micropolitan residents continued to have lower odds of being confident in the plan that they chose. Policy-makers should pay particular attention to making information about Part D easily accessible for all beneficiaries and to addressing unique barriers that rural residents have in accessing information while making decisions, such as reduced Internet availability. Furthermore, confidence in the decision-making process may be improved by simplifying the Part D program. © 2016 National Rural Health Association.

  16. Organizational decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...

  17. Teachers' Grading Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…

  18. TODIM Method for Single-Valued Neutrosophic Multiple Attribute Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Sheng Xu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the TODIM has been used to solve multiple attribute decision making (MADM problems. The single-valued neutrosophic sets (SVNSs are useful tools to depict the uncertainty of the MADM. In this paper, we will extend the TODIM method to the MADM with the single-valued neutrosophic numbers (SVNNs. Firstly, the definition, comparison, and distance of SVNNs are briefly presented, and the steps of the classical TODIM method for MADM problems are introduced. Then, the extended classical TODIM method is proposed to deal with MADM problems with the SVNNs, and its significant characteristic is that it can fully consider the decision makers’ bounded rationality which is a real action in decision making. Furthermore, we extend the proposed model to interval neutrosophic sets (INSs. Finally, a numerical example is proposed.

  19. Intuition in decision making and learning: Individual and organisational perspectives.

    OpenAIRE

    Akinci, Cinla.

    2011-01-01

    Although much has been written about the role of rational/analytical ways of knowing in decision making and problem solving in management, comparatively little is known about the way intuitive cognition manifests itself in organisations in general and in relation to organisational learning in particular. Several conceptualisations have been offered in respect to the ways in which managers perceive, make sense and act in the social settings of business organisations. Intuition and organisation...

  20. Making training decisions proactively

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, R.F.

    1988-01-01

    The challenge of making training decisions with a high degree of confidence as to the results of those decisions face every DOD, Federal, State, and City agency. Training has historically been a very labor and paper intensive system with limited automation support. This paper outlines how one DOD component, the Air Force, is approaching that challenge. The Training Decision System (TDS) will provide the Air Force with an automated decision aid to help plan and estimate the consequences of various mixes of resident training, On-The-Job Training (OJT), and field training within a specialty such as security. The system described provides training from enlistment to separation and responds to hundreds of related security task needs. This system identifies what the tasks are, who should provide the training, what training setting should be used, what proficiency should be achieved, and through computer modeling provides an assessment of training effectiveness options and estimate the impact of implementing those options. With current budgetary constraints and with the possibility of further reductions in the future, the most cost effective training mix must be found to sustain required capabilities

  1. Implementation of the Social Decision-Making Skills Curriculum on Primary Students (Grades 1-3) in Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Hassan, Karma; Mouganie, Zeina

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the effect of the Social Decision-Making Skills Curriculum (SDSC) on the emotional intelligence and the prosocial behaviors of primary students in Grades 1-3, in a private school in Lebanon. Students were trained in social problem-solving and social decision-making skills through the implementation of the SDSC. Participants…

  2. Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

    2017-01-01

    Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

  3. Simulation-based decision support for evaluating operational plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan Schubert

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we describe simulation-based decision support techniques for evaluation of operational plans within effects-based planning. Using a decision support tool, developers of operational plans are able to evaluate thousands of alternative plans against possible courses of events and decide which of these plans are capable of achieving a desired end state. The objective of this study is to examine the potential of a decision support system that helps operational analysts understand the consequences of numerous alternative plans through simulation and evaluation. Operational plans are described in the effects-based approach to operations concept as a set of actions and effects. For each action, we examine several different alternative ways to perform the action. We use a representation where a plan consists of several actions that should be performed. Each action may be performed in one of several different alternative ways. Together these action alternatives make up all possible plan instances, which are represented as a tree of action alternatives that may be searched for the most effective sequence of alternative actions. As a test case, we use an expeditionary operation with a plan of 43 actions and several alternatives for these actions, as well as a scenario of 40 group actors. Decision support for planners is provided by several methods that analyze the impact of a plan on the 40 actors, e.g., by visualizing time series of plan performance. Detailed decision support for finding the most influential actions of a plan is presented by using sensitivity analysis and regression tree analysis. Finally, a decision maker may use the tool to determine the boundaries of an operation that it must not move beyond without risk of drastic failure. The significant contribution of this study is the presentation of an integrated approach for evaluation of operational plans.

  4. The Role of Heuristic Methods as a Decision-Making Tool in Aggregate Production Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Mahmood B. Ridha

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to explain the role of heuristic methods in the decision making process and as a tool for knowledge capture. As a result, we conclude that heuristic methods give better support to the decision maker than mathematical models in many cases especially when time and cost are critical factors in decision making.

  5. Hospice decision making: diagnosis makes a difference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldrop, Deborah P; Meeker, Mary Ann

    2012-10-01

    This study explored the process of decision making about hospice enrollment and identified factors that influence the timing of that decision. This study employed an exploratory, descriptive, cross-sectional design and was conducted using qualitative methods. In-depth in-person semistructured interviews were conducted with 36 hospice patients and 55 caregivers after 2 weeks of hospice care. The study was guided by Janis and Mann's conflict theory model (CTM) of decision making. Qualitative data analysis involved a directed content analysis using concepts from the CTM. A model of hospice enrollment decision making is presented. Concepts from the CTM (appraisal, surveying and weighing the alternatives, deliberations, adherence) were used as an organizing framework to illustrate the dynamics. Distinct differences were found by diagnosis (cancer vs. other chronic illness, e.g., heart and lung diseases) during the pre-encounter phase or before the hospice referral but no differences emerged during the post-encounter phase. Differences in decision making by diagnosis suggest the need for research about effective means for tailored communication in end-of-life decision making by type of illness. Recognition that decision making about hospice admission varies is important for clinicians who aim to provide person-centered and family-focused care.

  6. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  7. Willed action, free will, and the stochastic neurodynamics of decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmund eRolls

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available It is shown that the randomness of the firing times of neurons in decision-making attractor neuronal networks that is present before the decision cues are applied can cause statistical fluctuations that influence the decision that will be taken. In this rigorous sense, it is possible to partially predict decisions before they are made. This raises issues about free will and determinism. There are many decision-making networks in the brain. Some decision systems operate to choose between gene-specified rewards such as taste, touch, and beauty (in for example the peacock’s tail. Other processes capable of planning ahead with multiple steps held in working memory may require correction by higher order thoughts that may involve explicit, conscious, processing. The explicit system can allow the gene-specified rewards not to be selected or deferred. The decisions between the selfish gene-specified rewards, and the explicitly calculated rewards that are in the interests of the individual, the phenotype, may themselves be influenced by noise in the brain. When the explicit planning system does take the decision, it can report on its decision-making, and can provide a causal account rather than a confabulation about the decision process. We might use the terms ‘willed action’ and ‘free will’ to refer to the operation of the planning system that can think ahead over several steps held in working memory with which it can take explicit decisions. Reduced connectivity in some of the default mode cortical regions including the precuneus that are active during self-initiated action appears to be related to the reduction in the sense of self and agency, of causing willed actions, that can be present in schizophrenia.

  8. Decision-making: Theory and practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SM Turpin

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, and the use of intuition. In terms of the use of decision support technology, the use of self-help tools, such as office software, was clearly favoured.

  9. Shared decision-making to improve attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkman, William B; Hartl Majcher, Jessica; Poling, Lauren M; Shi, Gaoyan; Zender, Mike; Sucharew, Heidi; Britto, Maria T; Epstein, Jeffery N

    2013-10-01

    To examine the effect of a shared decision-making intervention with parents of children newly diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. Seven pediatricians participated in a pre/post open trial of decision aids for use before and during the office visit to discuss diagnosis and develop a treatment plan. Encounters pre- (n=21, control group) and post-intervention implementation (n=33, intervention group) were compared. We video-recorded encounters and surveyed parents. Compared to controls, intervention group parents were more involved in shared decision-making (31.2 vs. 43.8 on OPTION score, pdecision-making with parents. Parents were better informed about treatment options without increasing visit duration. Interventions are available to prepare parents for visits and enable physicians to elicit parent preferences and involvement in decision-making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  11. Two efficient heuristics to solve the integrated load distribution and production planning problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajpal, Yuvraj; Nourelfath, Mustapha

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers a multi-period production system where a set of machines are arranged in parallel. The machines are unreliable and the failure rate of machine depends on the load assigned to the machine. The expected production rate of the system is considered to be a non-monotonic function of its load. Because of the machine failure rate, the total production output depends on the combination of loads assigned to different machines. We consider the integration of load distribution decisions with production planning decision. The product demands are considered to be known in advance. The objective is to minimize the sum of holding costs, backorder costs, production costs, setup costs, capacity change costs and unused capacity costs while satisfying the demand over specified time horizon. The constraint is not to exceed available repair resources required to repair the machine breakdown. The paper develops two heuristics to solve the integrated load distribution and production planning problem. The first heuristic consists of a three-phase approach, while the second one is based on tabu search metaheuristic. The efficiency of the proposed heuristics is tested through the randomly generated problem instances. - Highlights: • The expected performance of the system is a non-monotonic function of its load. • We consider the integration of load distribution and production planning decisions. • The paper proposes three phase and tabu search based heuristics to solve the problem. • Lower bound has been developed for checking the effectiveness of the heuristics. • The efficiency of the heuristic is tested through randomly generated instances.

  12. Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

    2016-01-01

    Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and

  13. Human factors influencing decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobs, Patricia A.

    1998-01-01

    This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...

  14. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  15. Interpersonal relationship modulates the behavioral and neural responses during moral decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Youlong; Xiao, Xiao; Li, Jin; Liu, Lei; Chen, Jie; Fan, Wei; Zhong, Yiping

    2018-04-13

    Interpersonal relationship (IR) may play an important role in moral decision-making. However, it is little known about how IR influences neural and behavioral responses during moral decision-making. The present study utilized the dilemma scenario-priming paradigm to examine the time course of the different intimate IR (friend, acquaintance, or stranger) impacts on the emotional and cognitive processes during moral decision-making. Results showed that participants made less altruistic decisions with increased decision times and experienced more unpleasure for strangers versus friends and acquaintances. Moreover, at the early moral intuitional process, there was no significance difference observed at N1 under different intimate IR; however, at the emotional process, larger P260 which reflects the dilemma conflicts and negative emotional responses, was elicited when moral decision-making for strangers; at the later cognitive process, such difference was also observed at LPP (300-450 ms) which indexes the later top-down cognitive appraisal and reasoning processes. However, such differences were not observed between friends and acquaintances. Results indicate that IR modulates the emotional and cognitive processes during moral decision-making, suggesting that the closer the IR is, the weaker the dilemma conflicts and emotional responses are, and the more efficient this conflicts are solved. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Dementia, Decision Making, and Capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, R Ryan; Dickerson, Bradford C

    After participating in this activity, learners should be better able to:• Assess the neuropsychological literature on decision making and the medical and legal assessment of capacity in patients with dementia• Identify the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments for patients with dementia ABSTRACT: Medical and legal professionals face the challenge of assessing capacity and competency to make medical, legal, and financial decisions in dementia patients with impaired decision making. While such assessments have classically focused on the capacity for complex reasoning and executive functions, research in decision making has revealed that motivational and metacognitive processes are also important. We first briefly review the neuropsychological literature on decision making and on the medical and legal assessment of capacity. Next, we discuss the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments, including the group-to-individual inference problem, the unclear role of neuroimaging in capacity assessments, and the lack of capacity measures that integrate important facets of decision making. Finally, we present several case examples where we attempt to demonstrate the potential benefits and important limitations of using decision-making research to aid in capacity determinations.

  17. Culinary Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Rob

    1987-01-01

    Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)

  18. Multiple Attribute Decision Making Based on Cross-Evaluation with Uncertain Decision Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Ding

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiple attribute decision making (MADM problem is one of the most common and popular research fields in the theory of decision science. A variety of methods have been proposed to deal with such problems. Nevertheless, many of them assumed that attribute weights are determined by different types of additional preference information which will result in subjective decision making. In order to solve such problems, in this paper, we propose a novel MADM approach based on cross-evaluation with uncertain parameters. Specifically, the proposed approach assumes that all attribute weights are uncertain. It can overcome the drawback in prior research that the alternatives’ ranking may be determined by a single attribute with an overestimated weight. In addition, the proposed method can also balance the mean and deviation of each alternative’s cross-evaluation score to guarantee the stability of evaluation. Then, this method is extended to a more generalized situation where the attribute values are also uncertain. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of the proposed method by revisiting two reported studies and by a case study on the selection of community service companies in the city of Hefei in China.

  19. Defining decision making: a qualitative study of international experts' views on surgical trainee decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rennie, Sarah C; van Rij, Andre M; Jaye, Chrystal; Hall, Katherine H

    2011-06-01

    Decision making is a key competency of surgeons; however, how best to assess decisions and decision makers is not clearly established. The aim of the present study was to identify criteria that inform judgments about surgical trainees' decision-making skills. A qualitative free text web-based survey was distributed to recognized international experts in Surgery, Medical Education, and Cognitive Research. Half the participants were asked to identify features of good decisions, characteristics of good decision makers, and essential factors for developing good decision-making skills. The other half were asked to consider these areas in relation to poor decision making. Template analysis of free text responses was performed. Twenty-nine (52%) experts responded to the survey, identifying 13 categories for judging a decision and 14 for judging a decision maker. Twelve features/characteristics overlapped (considered, informed, well timed, aware of limitations, communicated, knowledgeable, collaborative, patient-focused, flexible, able to act on the decision, evidence-based, and coherent). Fifteen categories were generated for essential factors leading to development of decision-making skills that fall into three major themes (personal qualities, training, and culture). The categories compiled from the perspectives of good/poor were predominantly the inverse of each other; however, the weighting given to some categories varied. This study provides criteria described by experts when considering surgical decisions, decision makers, and development of decision-making skills. It proposes a working definition of a good decision maker. Understanding these criteria will enable clinical teachers to better recognize and encourage good decision-making skills and identify poor decision-making skills for remediation.

  20. A Women in The Labour Market and Decision Making in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dena ARAPI

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Gender equality is defined as a prerequisite for European integration and as such the Action Plan for European Partnership is listed on Political Criteria. The Government of Kosovo in April 2008 approved the Kosovo Program for Gender Equality GENERAL six goals and eight specific objectives. With this objective case for women in the labor market and decision-making requires a greater commitment of all stakeholders. This study provides an overview of the rough that evaluates the legal framework and cross-sectoral policies and positioning of women in conformity with their school preparation in decision-making positions. Economic independence remains as one of the main key to the realization of the equal right to decision-making positions. Although Kosovo with gender representation in decision-making level of the seventeenth in the world counted in the labor market situation remains a challenge that requires a great commitment to the local factor and even international. Therefore, the research enables the opening of discussions, improving the working environment and the implementation of the Action Plan for Empowering Women in Economy as a key factor of the welfare of family and society.

  1. Dysfunctional decision-making in pathological gambling: pattern specificity and the role of impulsivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kräplin, Anja; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Behrendt, Silke; Scherbaum, Stefan; Goschke, Thomas; Bühringer, Gerhard

    2014-03-30

    Dysfunctional decision-making in individuals with pathological gambling (PGs) may result from dominating reward-driven processes, indicated by higher impulsivity. In the current study we examined (1) if PGs show specific decision-making impairments related to dominating reward-driven processes rather than to strategic planning deficits and (2) whether these impairments are related to impulsivity. Nineteen PGs according to DSM-IV and 19 matched control subjects undertook the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to assess decision-making. The delay discounting paradigm (DDP) as well as the UPPS Impulsive Behavior Scale (measuring urgency, premeditation, perseverance and sensation seeking) were administered as multidimensional measures of impulsivity. Results revealed that (1) PGs exhibited higher risk seeking and an immediate reward focus in the CGT and, in contrast, comparable strategic planning to the control group. (2) Decision-making impairments were related to more severe delay discounting and, specifically, to increased urgency and less premeditation. Our findings suggest (1) the necessity to disentangle decision-making components in order to improve etiological models of PGs, and (2) that urgency and premeditation are specifically related to disadvantageous decision-making and should be tackled in intervention strategies focusing on emotion tolerance and control strategies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Application of improved topsis method to accident emergency decision-making at nuclear power station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jin; Cai Qi; Zhang Fan; Chang Ling

    2009-01-01

    Given the complexity in multi-attribute decision-making on nuclear accident emergency, and by integrating subjective weight and impersonal weight of each evaluating index, a decision-making model for emergency plan at nuclear power stations is established with the application of improved TOPSIS model. The testing results indicated that the improved TOPSIS-based multi-attribute decision-making has a better assessment results. (authors)

  3. Adapting EVIAVE methodology as a planning and decision-making tool in Venezuela

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamorano, M.; Paolini, A.; Ramos, A.; Rodriguez, M.L.

    2009-01-01

    Landfills in Venezuela have serious problems regarding their location, design and operation. In fact, basic waste disposal is one of the main weaknesses of the municipal waste management in this country. The Venezuelan Ministry of Environment and Renewable Resources has studied and identified the negative impacts of operating landfills, but no program has been implemented to determine the cause-effect relation of these impacts or to design strategies to counteract with the serious environmental and health risks generated. This paper describes how EVIAVE methodology can be successfully used for landfill diagnosis, and shows how this type of landfill diagnosis was applied in Venezuela. For our research study, we carried out both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the environmental problems generated by 22 landfills in Venezuela. Our study was based on the following environmental indexes: Landfill Environment, Environmental Risk, Environmental Value, and Probability of Contamination. For the purposes of our study, it was first necessary to adapt EVIAVE to the legal system and social context in Venezuela. The results obtained confirmed the applicability of this methodology to Venezuelan landfills. EVIAVE was found to be an effective planning tool that provided crucial information for the development of action plans, which would improve landfill operation, and help make decisions pertaining to their closure, sealing and eventual recovery.

  4. Risk management in facility transition and management decision making: Needs and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stillwell, W.; Seaver, D.; Keller, J.; Smith, D.; Weaver, D.; Sanders, T.; Thullen, P.

    1993-02-01

    An overall approach to risk management is described in this paper. Many of these concepts have been developed and applied as part of Hanford Mission Planning (HMP) (Hanford Mission Plan, 1992). At Hanford, HMP provides a mechanism for integrating planning across all the missions and programs of the site. This paper discusses the decision context within which EM must make and defend decisions, the types of decisions that are being and will need to be made in order to progress with the cleanup of the DOE complex, and the resulting need for risk management. Risk management, in turn, requires quality health and ecological risk information to make these decisions. Other types of information are also needed, but the risk information is typically the most important and the most difficult to obtain. The paper then describes a general technical approach to risk management, including particular methods for developing the high quality of human health and ecological risk information that will be needed to support risk management. We next turn to several special issues that make risk management more complex than many other decisions. We discuss these issues and offer some practical suggestions with respect to addressing them in the risk management framework. Finally, we conclude with some discussion of other opportunities for applying risk management

  5. An Analysis of the Associations among Cognitive Impulsiveness, Reasoning Process, and Rational Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Jelihovschi, Ana P. G.; Cardoso, Ricardo L.; Linhares, Alexandre

    2018-01-01

    Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve probl...

  6. Individual decision making, group decision making and deliberation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Bojana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Each of us makes a number of decisions, from the less important to those with far-reaching consequences. As members of different groups, we are also actors of group decision making. In order to make a rational decision, a choice-making procedure must satisfy a number of assumptions (conditions of rationality. In addition, when it comes to group decisions, those procedures should also be “fair.” However, it is not possible to define a procedure of choice-making that would transform individual orders of alternatives based on preferences of perfectly rational individuals into a single social order and still meet conditions of rationality and ethics. The theory of deliberative democracy appeared in response to the impossibility of Social Choice theory. The basic assumption of deliberative democracy is that individuals adjust their preferences taking into account interests of the community. They are open for discussion with other group members and are willing to change their attitudes in order to achieve common interests. Ideally, group members come to an agreement during public discussion (deliberation. Still, this concept cannot completely over­come all the difficulties posed by the theory of social choice. Specifically, there is no solution for strategic and manipulative behavior of individuals. Also, the concept of deliberative democracy faces certain problems particular to this approach, such as, to name but a few, problems with the establishment of equality of participants in the debate and their motivation, as well as problems with the organization of public hearings. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47009: Evropske integracije i društveno-ekonomske promene privrede Srbije na putu ka EU i br. 179015: Izazovi i perspektive strukturnih promena u Srbiji: Strateški pravci ekonomskog razvoja i usklađivanje sa zahtevima EU

  7. Decomposing the (seafood vs. meat) evening meal decision-making sequence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perrea, Toula; Brunsø, Karen; Altintzoglou, Themistoklis

    2012-01-01

    as the content of the family’s daily food (i.e. seafood and meat-related) decision-making process. Design/methodology/approach – Twenty-four families in Denmark, Norway and Iceland were asked to fill in a one-to-two-week semi-structured diary regarding any thoughts they had about the decision-making sequence...... regarding their evening meals. Data were analysed by means of content analysis so as to gain insight into the main themes and distinctive patterns with respect to the four stages of the decision-making sequence by identifying a number of codes and sub-codes of high and lower abstraction level. Findings...... – The main results were similar across the three countries. Planning was the most important phase of the evening meal decision-making sequence, where Nordic respondents considered practical issues, and engaged in a more rational type of thinking, allowing cognitive aspects to prevail at this particular stage...

  8. DIAMOND: A model of incremental decision making for resource acquisition by electric utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gettings, M.; Hirst, E.; Yourstone, E.

    1991-02-01

    Uncertainty is a major issue facing electric utilities in planning and decision making. Substantial uncertainties exist concerning future load growth; the lifetimes and performances of existing power plants; the construction times, costs, and performances of new resources being brought online; and the regulatory and economic environment in which utilities operate. This report describes a utility planning model that focuses on frequent and incremental decisions. The key features of this model are its explicit treatment of uncertainty, frequent user interaction with the model, and the ability to change prior decisions. The primary strength of this model is its representation of the planning and decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, canceled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side management programs can be changed from year to year, reflecting the short lead time and small unit size of these resources. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources. The model is called DIAMOND, Decision Impact Assessment Model. In consists of four submodels: FUTURES, FORECAST, SIMULATION, and DECISION. It runs on any IBM-compatible PC and requires no special software or hardware. 19 refs., 13 figs., 15 tabs.

  9. Model Driven Integrated Decision-Making in Manufacturing Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard H. Weston

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision making requirements and solutions are observed in four world class Manufacturing Enterprises (MEs. Observations made focus on deployed methods of complexity handling that facilitate multi-purpose, distributed decision making. Also observed are examples of partially deficient “integrated decision making” which stem from lack of understanding about how ME structural relations enable and/or constrain reachable ME behaviours. To begin to address this deficiency the paper outlines the use of a “reference model of ME decision making” which can inform the structural design of decision making systems in MEs. Also outlined is a “systematic model driven approach to modelling ME systems” which can particularise the reference model in specific case enterprises and thereby can “underpin integrated ME decision making”. Coherent decomposition and representational mechanisms have been incorporated into the model driven approach to systemise complexity handling. The paper also describes in outline an application of the modelling method in a case study ME and explains how its use has improved the integration of previously distinct planning functions. The modelling approach is particularly innovative in respect to the way it structures the coherent creation and experimental re-use of “fit for purpose” discrete event (predictive simulation models at the multiple levels of abstraction.

  10. Study of decision framework of wind farm project plan selection under intuitionistic fuzzy set and fuzzy measure environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Yunna; Geng, Shuai; Xu, Hu; Zhang, Haobo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Experts’ opinions are expressed by using the intuitionistic fuzzy values. • Fuzzy measure is used to solve the dependence problem of criteria. • The compensatory problem of performance scores is reasonably processed. - Abstract: Project selection plays an important role in the entire life cycle of wind farm project and the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are very important in the whole wind farm project plan selection process. There are problems in the present MCDM methods decrease evaluation quality of the wind farm project plans: first, the information loss exists in the wind farm project plan evaluation process. Second, it is difficult to satisfy the independent assumption of the multi-criteria decision making methods used in the wind farm project plan evaluation in fact. Third, the compensatory problem of performance scores of the wind farm project plans is processed unreasonably. Hence the innovation points of this paper are as follows: first, the intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used instead of fuzzy numbers or numerical values to reflect the experts’ intuitive preferences to decrease the probability of information loss; second, the fuzzy measure is used to rate the important degrees of criteria in order to avoid the independent assumption and to increase the reasonability; third, the partial compensatory problem of performance scores is well processed by using intuitionistic fuzzy Choquet (IFC) operator and generalized intuitionistic fuzzy ordered geometric averaging (GIFOGA) operator. These operators can deal with the compensatory performance scores and non-compensatory performance scores respectively. Finally, a case study demonstrates the effectiveness of decision framework

  11. Improving the Slum Planning Through Geospatial Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekhar, S.

    2014-11-01

    In India, a number of schemes and programmes have been launched from time to time in order to promote integrated city development and to enable the slum dwellers to gain access to the basic services. Despite the use of geospatial technologies in planning, the local, state and central governments have only been partially successful in dealing with these problems. The study on existing policies and programmes also proved that when the government is the sole provider or mediator, GIS can become a tool of coercion rather than participatory decision-making. It has also been observed that local level administrators who have adopted Geospatial technology for local planning continue to base decision-making on existing political processes. In this juncture, geospatial decision support system (GSDSS) can provide a framework for integrating database management systems with analytical models, graphical display, tabular reporting capabilities and the expert knowledge of decision makers. This assists decision-makers to generate and evaluate alternative solutions to spatial problems. During this process, decision-makers undertake a process of decision research - producing a large number of possible decision alternatives and provide opportunities to involve the community in decision making. The objective is to help decision makers and planners to find solutions through a quantitative spatial evaluation and verification process. The study investigates the options for slum development in a formal framework of RAY (Rajiv Awas Yojana), an ambitious program of Indian Government for slum development. The software modules for realizing the GSDSS were developed using the ArcGIS and Community -VIZ software for Gulbarga city.

  12. Decision Making in the Airplane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

  13. Decision making and planning of children in the reproductive process of males

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandra Salguero

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Reproduction is not restricted to the biological; it is also a complex and dynamic social process. The objective of this paper is to analyze the decision and planning of children as part of the reproductive process in men. Methodologically, a qualitative research was made. The analysis includes in-depth interviews with 30 parents between 20 and 45 years, of medium socio-economic level in México. The results show that the reproductive process incorporates family formation negotiated with their couple the marriage until they had economic potential. In some cases, their decision hastened because the couple was pregnant. The planning was not contemplated but when getting the news, they accept it and get involved in the process, while others see it as a conflict.

  14. A new web-based framework development for fuzzy multi-criteria group decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanine, Mohamed; Boutkhoum, Omar; Tikniouine, Abdessadek; Agouti, Tarik

    2016-01-01

    Fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making (FMCGDM) process is usually used when a group of decision-makers faces imprecise data or linguistic variables to solve the problems. However, this process contains many methods that require many time-consuming calculations depending on the number of criteria, alternatives and decision-makers in order to reach the optimal solution. In this study, a web-based FMCGDM framework that offers decision-makers a fast and reliable response service is proposed. The proposed framework includes commonly used tools for multi-criteria decision-making problems such as fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS methods. The integration of these methods enables taking advantages of the strengths and complements each method's weakness. Finally, a case study of location selection for landfill waste in Morocco is performed to demonstrate how this framework can facilitate decision-making process. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework can successfully accomplish the goal of this study.

  15. Decision Making Styles and Progress in Occupational Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Susan D.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Examined the role of rational, intuitive, and dependent decisional strategies in facilitating decisions about postcollege occupation among college students (N=71). Results indicated that the use of a dependent decision-making style was the single most powerful predictor of progress. (LLL)

  16. Fuzzy-valued linguistic soft set theory and multi-attribute decision-making application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aiwu, Zhao; Hongjun, Guan

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we propose the theory of fuzzy linguistic soft set (FLSS) to represent the uncertainty and multi-angle of view when decision makers evaluate an object during decision-making. FLSS integrates fuzzy set theory, linguistic variable and soft set theory. It allows decision makers to utilize linguistic variables to evaluate an object and utilize fuzzy values to describe the corresponding grade of their support of their decisions. Meanwhile, because of the flexibility of soft set, decision makers can use more than one pair of fuzzy-linguistic evaluations to express their opinions from multiple perspectives directly, if necessary. Therefore, it is more flexible and practical than traditional fuzzy set or 2-dimension uncertainty linguistic variable. We also develop a generalized weighted aggregation operator for FLSSs to solve corresponding decision-making issues. Finally, we give a numerical example to verify the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.

  17. The analytic hierarchy process as a support for decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipović Milanka

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The first part of this text deals with a convention site selection as one of the most lucrative areas in the tourism industry. The second part gives a further description of a method for decision making - the analytic hierarchy process. The basic characteristics: hierarchy constructions and pair wise comparison on the given level of the hierarchy are allured. The third part offers an example of application. This example is solved using the Super - Decision software, which is developed as a computer support for the analytic hierarchy process. This indicates that the AHP approach is a useful tool to help support a decision of convention site selection. .

  18. THE MAKING OF DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Yuji Tamura

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.

  19. Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

  20. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

    2009-03-01

    This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

  1. Decision-Making under Criteria Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.

    2018-05-01

    Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.

  2. Satisficing in split-second decision making is characterized by strategic cue discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Hanna; Beck, Jeffrey M; Zhu, Pingping; Sommer, Marc A; Ferrari, Silvia; Egner, Tobias

    2016-12-01

    Much of our real-life decision making is bounded by uncertain information, limitations in cognitive resources, and a lack of time to allocate to the decision process. It is thought that humans overcome these limitations through satisficing, fast but "good-enough" heuristic decision making that prioritizes some sources of information (cues) while ignoring others. However, the decision-making strategies we adopt under uncertainty and time pressure, for example during emergencies that demand split-second choices, are presently unknown. To characterize these decision strategies quantitatively, the present study examined how people solve a novel multicue probabilistic classification task under varying time pressure, by tracking shifts in decision strategies using variational Bayesian inference. We found that under low time pressure, participants correctly weighted and integrated all available cues to arrive at near-optimal decisions. With increasingly demanding, subsecond time pressures, however, participants systematically discounted a subset of the cue information by dropping the least informative cue(s) from their decision making process. Thus, the human cognitive apparatus copes with uncertainty and severe time pressure by adopting a "drop-the-worst" cue decision making strategy that minimizes cognitive time and effort investment while preserving the consideration of the most diagnostic cue information, thus maintaining "good-enough" accuracy. This advance in our understanding of satisficing strategies could form the basis of predicting human choices in high time pressure scenarios. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. A Simulation for Managing Complexity in Sales and Operations Planning Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuHadway, Scott; Dreyfus, David

    2017-01-01

    Within the classroom it is often difficult to convey the complexities and intricacies that go into making sales and operations planning decisions. This article describes an in-class simulation that allows students to gain hands-on experience with the complexities in making forecasting, inventory, and supplier selection decisions as part of the…

  4. Developing Holocaust Curricula: The Content Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, David H.

    2008-01-01

    The content decision-making process involved in developing Holocaust curricula is unusually complex and problematic. Educators must consider factors such as historical accuracy, selection of topics covered, potential teaching materials (such as textbooks and literary texts), and graphic materials (such as films and photographs) as they plan their…

  5. Strategic Planning and Decision Analysis: Presentation of the COSIMA Software System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This paper presents a composite decision support system, COSIMA, programmed in MS Excel. COSIMA provides assistance to the decision maker as concerns complex decisions and strategic planning. The COSIMA software is designed as interconnected modules which make it possible to conduct Cost-Benefit...

  6. Shared decision making in endocrinology: present and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Gutierrez, Rene; Gionfriddo, Michael R; Ospina, Naykky Singh; Maraka, Spyridoula; Tamhane, Shrikant; Montori, Victor M; Brito, Juan P

    2016-08-01

    available evidence, however, endocrinologists can now start to practice shared decision making, partner with their patients, and use their expertise to formulate treatment plans that reflect patient preferences and are more likely to fit into the context of patients' lives. In this Personal View, we describe shared decision making, the evidence behind the approach, and why and how both endocrinologists and their patients could benefit from this approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Monte Carlo Tree Search for Continuous and Stochastic Sequential Decision Making Problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Couetoux, Adrien

    2013-01-01

    In this thesis, I studied sequential decision making problems, with a focus on the unit commitment problem. Traditionally solved by dynamic programming methods, this problem is still a challenge, due to its high dimension and to the sacrifices made on the accuracy of the model to apply state of the art methods. I investigated on the applicability of Monte Carlo Tree Search methods for this problem, and other problems that are single player, stochastic and continuous sequential decision making problems. In doing so, I obtained a consistent and anytime algorithm, that can easily be combined with existing strong heuristic solvers. (author)

  8. Cognitive-emotional decision making (CEDM): a framework of patient medical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Tara E; Swartzman, Leora C; Robinson, John W

    2011-05-01

    Assistance for patients faced with medical decisions has largely focussed on the clarification of information and personal values. Our aim is to draw on the decision research describing the role of emotion in combination with health behaviour models to provide a framework for conceptualizing patient decisions. A review of the psychological and medical decision making literature concerned with the role of emotion/affect in decision making and health behaviours. Emotion plays an influential role in decision making. Both current and anticipated emotions play a motivational role in choice. Amalgamating these findings with that of Leventhal's (1970) SRM provide a framework for thinking about the influence of emotion on a patient medical decision. Our framework suggests that a patient must cope with four sets of elements. The first two relate to the need to manage the cognitive and emotional aspects of the health threat. The second set relate to the management of the cognitive and emotional elements of the decision, itself. The framework provides a way for practitioners and researchers to frame thinking about a patient medical decision in order to assist the patient in clarifying decisional priorities. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Collective Decision Making as the Actualization of Decision Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Ule

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents some characteristics and dilemmas of collective decision making. Collective decision making could be presented as the process of successive crystallization of dominant alternatives under the influence of different decision contexts from primary given decision potentials. This process is presented as the many-phased process of the acting of contextually dependent “energizing factors” of the collective decision making on the “attractiveness matrix” of outcomes of collective decisions. The attractiveness matrix determines the attractiveness for each alternative of decision, and the most attractive alternative in the given situation presents the rational decision in the given situation. In the final phase of decision making holds a context which gets a simplified attractiveness matrix. It corresponds to the common decision for one of the alternatives.

  10. Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries

    OpenAIRE

    Claassen, G.D.H.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Optimization-based decision support systems for planning problems in processing industries Nowadays, efficient planning of material flows within and between supply chains is of vital importance and has become one of the most challenging problems for decision support in practice. The tremendous progress in hard- and software of the past decades was an important gateway for developing computerized systems that are able to support decision making on different levels within enterprises. T...

  11. A study of decision-making behavior of aircraft pilots deviating from a planned flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flather, G. W., II; Giffin, W. C.; Rockwell, T. H.

    1981-01-01

    This paper outlines an investigation into the worth structures of pilots facing a deviation from a planned flight. A 'paper and pencil' simulation was used to frame the situation into which pilots interjected their own decision making skills in a simple ranking of candidate diversion airports with varying locational, navigational aid, radar and weather attributes. Using the conjoint measurement technique, attribute worth functions of 30 pilots were constructed. It was discovered that systematic differences in the worth functions of the pilots did not occur as a result of dividing the pilot sample according to any measure of flight hour experience. However, differences were found when the pilot sample was grouped according to grade of pilot certificate, type of pilot training, and type of flying most commonly done.

  12. Cortical Network Dynamics of Perceptual Decision-Making in the Human Brain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus eSiegel

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Goal-directed behavior requires the flexible transformation of sensory evidence about our environment into motor actions. Studies of perceptual decision-making have shown that this transformation is distributed across several widely separated brain regions. Yet, little is known about how decision-making emerges from the dynamic interactions among these regions. Here, we review a series of studies, in which we characterized the cortical network interactions underlying a perceptual decision process in the human brain. We used magnetoencephalography (MEG to measure the large-scale cortical population dynamics underlying each of the sub-processes involved in this decision: the encoding of sensory evidence and action plan, the mapping between the two, and the attentional selection of task-relevant evidence. We found that these sub-processes are mediated by neuronal oscillations within specific frequency ranges. Localized gamma-band oscillations in sensory and motor cortices reflect the encoding of the sensory evidence and motor plan. Large-scale oscillations across widespread cortical networks mediate the integrative processes connecting these local networks: Gamma- and beta-band oscillations across frontal, parietal and sensory cortices serve the selection of relevant sensory evidence and its flexible mapping onto action plans. In sum, our results suggest that perceptual decisions are mediated by oscillatory interactions within overlapping local and large-scale cortical networks.

  13. Neural systems analysis of decision making during goal-directed navigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, Marsha R; Mizumori, Sheri J Y

    2012-01-01

    The ability to make adaptive decisions during goal-directed navigation is a fundamental and highly evolved behavior that requires continual coordination of perceptions, learning and memory processes, and the planning of behaviors. Here, a neurobiological account for such coordination is provided by integrating current literatures on spatial context analysis and decision-making. This integration includes discussions of our current understanding of the role of the hippocampal system in experience-dependent navigation, how hippocampal information comes to impact midbrain and striatal decision making systems, and finally the role of the striatum in the implementation of behaviors based on recent decisions. These discussions extend across cellular to neural systems levels of analysis. Not only are key findings described, but also fundamental organizing principles within and across neural systems, as well as between neural systems functions and behavior, are emphasized. It is suggested that studying decision making during goal-directed navigation is a powerful model for studying interactive brain systems and their mediation of complex behaviors. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Perception and communication of risk in decision making by persons with dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Mabel; Savage, Beverley; Taylor, Brian J

    2017-01-01

    Communication of risks must involve people with dementia meaningfully to ensure informed and inclusive decision-making processes. This qualitative study explored concepts of risk from the perspective of persons with dementia and their experiences of communicating risk with family members and professionals. Data was analysed using grounded theory. Seventeen people in Northern Ireland with mild-moderate dementia who had recently made a decision about their daily life or care involving consideration of risks were interviewed between November 2015 and November 2016. A wide range of actual or feared risks were identified relating to: daily activities; hobbies and socialising; mental health and medicines; and risks to and from others. 'Risk' often held emotional rather than probability connotations. Constructive communications to address issues were presented. Problem-solving models of both active and passive decision-making about risks were evident. Effective risk communication in informed decision-making processes about health and social care is discussed.

  15. Education tools for dynamic Bayesian decision-making

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Suzdaleva, Evgenia; Nedoma, Petr

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 3 (2006), s. 288-295 ISSN 1790-1979 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP201/06/P434; GA ČR GA102/03/0049 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : educational system * Bayesian decision-making * probabilistic mixtures Subject RIV: JC - Computer Hardware ; Software http://library.utia.cas.cz/prace/20060144.pdf

  16. Patient's decision making in selecting a hospital for elective orthopaedic surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moser, Albine; Korstjens, Irene; van der Weijden, Trudy; Tange, Huibert

    2010-12-01

    The admission to a hospital for elective surgery, like arthroplasty, can be planned ahead. The elective nature of arthroplasty and the increasing stimulus of the public to critically select a hospital raise the issue of how patients actually take such decisions. The aim of this paper is to describe the decision-making process of selecting a hospital as experienced by people who underwent elective joint arthroplasty and to understand what factors influenced the decision-making process. Qualitative descriptive study with 18 participants who had a hip or knee replacement within the last 5 years. Data were gathered from eight individual interviews and four focus group interviews and analysed by content analysis. Three categories that influenced the selection of a hospital were revealed: information sources, criteria in decision making and decision-making styles within the GP- patient relationship. Various contextual aspects influenced the decision-making process. Most participants gave higher priority to the selection of a medical specialist than to the selection of a hospital. Selecting a hospital for arthroplasty is extremely complex. The decision-making process is a highly individualized process because patients have to consider and assimilate a diversity of aspects, which are relevant to their specific situation. Our findings support the model of shared decision making, which indicates that general practitioners should be attuned to the distinct needs of each patient at various moments during the decision making, taking into account personal, medical and contextual factors. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. A rational approach to decision making in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, B A; Sass, N L

    1984-06-01

    The application of the Kepner-Tregoe (C. H. Kepner and B. B. Tregoe, 1981, The New Rational Manager, Princeton Res. Press, Princeton, N. J.) problem solving technique to the evaluation and interpretation of toxicological information is described. Data from a chronic study provide an illustrative example. In this study an excess in the number of urinary bladder neoplasms was observed in male rats exposed to diets containing the test chemical. No similar effect was seen in treated female rats. Both male and female mice exposed to treatment also exhibited no effect. Whether treatment was the cause of the observed increase should be based on all the scientific and technical information that is relevant to this decision. The Kepner-Tregoe method of problem analysis captures this information in a framework that makes it easily understood. This is especially desirable if the judgments that are a vital part of regulatory decision making are to be adequately communicated.

  18. Viewpoint: Decision-making in committees

    OpenAIRE

    Li Hao; Wing Suen

    2009-01-01

    This article reviews recent developments in the theory of committee decision-making. A committee consists of self-interested members who make a public decision by aggregating imperfect information dispersed among them according to a pre-specified decision rule. We focus on costly information acquisition, strategic information aggregation, and rules and processes that enhance the quality of the committee decision. Seeming inefficiencies of the committee decision-making process such as over-cau...

  19. Does STES-Oriented Science Education Promote 10th-Grade Students' Decision-Making Capability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy Nahum, Tami; Ben-Chaim, David; Azaiza, Ibtesam; Herskovitz, Orit; Zoller, Uri

    2010-07-01

    Today's society is continuously coping with sustainability-related complex issues in the Science-Technology-Environment-Society (STES) interfaces. In those contexts, the need and relevance of the development of students' higher-order cognitive skills (HOCS) such as question-asking, critical-thinking, problem-solving and decision-making capabilities within science teaching have been argued by several science educators for decades. Three main objectives guided this study: (1) to establish "base lines" for HOCS capabilities of 10th grade students (n = 264) in the Israeli educational system; (2) to delineate within this population, two different groups with respect to their decision-making capability, science-oriented (n = 142) and non-science (n = 122) students, Groups A and B, respectively; and (3) to assess the pre-post development/change of students' decision-making capabilities via STES-oriented HOCS-promoting curricular modules entitled Science, Technology and Environment in Modern Society (STEMS). A specially developed and validated decision-making questionnaire was used for obtaining a research-based response to the guiding research questions. Our findings suggest that a long-term persistent application of purposed decision-making, promoting teaching strategies, is needed in order to succeed in affecting, positively, high-school students' decision-making ability. The need for science teachers' involvement in the development of their students' HOCS capabilities is thus apparent.

  20. Tactical decision making under stress (TADMUS) decision support system

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

    1996-01-01

    A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes and cognitive analysis of the decision making problems faced by Navy tactical officers in a shipboard Combat Information Center. Baseline testing in high intensity, peace keeping, littoral scenarios indicated...

  1. Approach of decision making based on the analytic hierarchy process for urban landscape management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srdjevic, Zorica; Lakicevic, Milena; Srdjevic, Bojan

    2013-03-01

    This paper proposes a two-stage group decision making approach to urban landscape management and planning supported by the analytic hierarchy process. The proposed approach combines an application of the consensus convergence model and the weighted geometric mean method. The application of the proposed approach is shown on a real urban landscape planning problem with a park-forest in Belgrade, Serbia. Decision makers were policy makers, i.e., representatives of several key national and municipal institutions, and experts coming from different scientific fields. As a result, the most suitable management plan from the set of plans is recognized. It includes both native vegetation renewal in degraded areas of park-forest and continued maintenance of its dominant tourism function. Decision makers included in this research consider the approach to be transparent and useful for addressing landscape management tasks. The central idea of this paper can be understood in a broader sense and easily applied to other decision making problems in various scientific fields.

  2. Approach of Decision Making Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process for Urban Landscape Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srdjevic, Zorica; Lakicevic, Milena; Srdjevic, Bojan

    2013-03-01

    This paper proposes a two-stage group decision making approach to urban landscape management and planning supported by the analytic hierarchy process. The proposed approach combines an application of the consensus convergence model and the weighted geometric mean method. The application of the proposed approach is shown on a real urban landscape planning problem with a park-forest in Belgrade, Serbia. Decision makers were policy makers, i.e., representatives of several key national and municipal institutions, and experts coming from different scientific fields. As a result, the most suitable management plan from the set of plans is recognized. It includes both native vegetation renewal in degraded areas of park-forest and continued maintenance of its dominant tourism function. Decision makers included in this research consider the approach to be transparent and useful for addressing landscape management tasks. The central idea of this paper can be understood in a broader sense and easily applied to other decision making problems in various scientific fields.

  3. Innovation and decision-making process in reverse logistics: a bibliometric analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Antonio Guimarães Tenório

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This work aimed to make a bibliometric analysis on empirical studies that focus on the reverse logistics process. Papers published in two major events of management and a production engineering were collected during the years 2007-2012. To perform the analysis assumptions were adopted as the concepts of innovation and decision-making. 43 articles were analyzed and it was found that, in most cases, organizations choose to deploy reverse logistics as a means to solving problems related to environmental laws and regulations and after its implementation, the decision-making process related to the network of companies that perform reverse logistics remains restricted to the adopter company, thus becoming a centralized decision-making process. It was also found that reverse logistics is, in most cases, an innovation in the supply chain, it provides a new way to manage and operate the return and recycling of waste products and generating competitive advantages in the form of increased net income and better picture of the organization to its partners and customers.

  4. From Career Decision-Making Styles to Career Decision-Making Profiles: A Multidimensional Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gati, Itamar; Landman, Shiri; Davidovitch, Shlomit; Asulin-Peretz, Lisa; Gadassi, Reuma

    2010-01-01

    Previous research on individual differences in career decision-making processes has often focused on classifying individuals into a few types of decision-making "styles" based on the most dominant trait or characteristic of their approach to the decision process (e.g., rational, intuitive, dependent; Harren, 1979). In this research, an…

  5. Non-technical factors impacting on the decision making processes in environmental remediation. Influences on the decision making process such as cost, planned land use and public perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-04-01

    The IAEA attaches great importance to the dissemination of information that can assist Member States with the development, implementation, maintenance and continuous improvement of systems, programmes and activities that support the nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear applications, including the legacy of past practices and accidents. In response to this, the IAEA has initiated a comprehensive programme of work covering all aspects of environmental remediation: factors important for formulating a strategy for environmental remediation; site characterisation techniques and strategies; assessment of remediation technologies; assessment of technical options for cleanup of contaminated media; post-restoration compliance monitoring; assessment of the costs of remediation measures; remediation of low-level disperse radioactive contaminations in the environment. While this project mainly focus on technological aspects, non-technical factors will be influencing the decision making process in remediation decisively. Often their influence is only tacitly accepted and not explicitly acknowledged by the responsible decision makers. This makes it difficult to trace the decision making process in the event that it has to be revisited. The present publication attempts to make these factors explicit and to present methods to include them consciously into the decision making process

  6. Implications of Decision Making Research for Decision Support and Displays

    OpenAIRE

    Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

    1998-01-01

    To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...

  7. The amygdala and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Rupa; Koscik, Timothy R; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel

    2011-03-01

    Decision-making is a complex process that requires the orchestration of multiple neural systems. For example, decision-making is believed to involve areas of the brain involved in emotion (e.g., amygdala, ventromedial prefrontal cortex) and memory (e.g., hippocampus, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). In this article, we will present findings related to the amygdala's role in decision-making, and differentiate the contributions of the amygdala from those of other structurally and functionally connected neural regions. Decades of research have shown that the amygdala is involved in associating a stimulus with its emotional value. This tradition has been extended in newer work, which has shown that the amygdala is especially important for decision-making, by triggering autonomic responses to emotional stimuli, including monetary reward and punishment. Patients with amygdala damage lack these autonomic responses to reward and punishment, and consequently, cannot utilize "somatic marker" type cues to guide future decision-making. Studies using laboratory decision-making tests have found deficient decision-making in patients with bilateral amygdala damage, which resembles their real-world difficulties with decision-making. Additionally, we have found evidence for an interaction between sex and laterality of amygdala functioning, such that unilateral damage to the right amygdala results in greater deficits in decision-making and social behavior in men, while left amygdala damage seems to be more detrimental for women. We have posited that the amygdala is part of an "impulsive," habit type system that triggers emotional responses to immediate outcomes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Decentralized Channel Decisions of Green Supply Chain in a Fuzzy Decision Making Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengju Sang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the greening policies in a decentralized channel between one manufacturer and one retailer in a fuzzy decision making environment. We consider the manufacturing cost and the parameters of demand function as the fuzzy variables. Based on the different market structures, we develop three different fuzzy decentralized decision models. For each case, the expected value, optimistic value and pessimistic value models are formulated, and their optimal solutions are also derived through the fuzzy set theory. Finally, three numerical examples are solved to examine the effectiveness of fuzzy models. The effects of the confidence level of the supply chain memberrs profits and the fuzziness of parameters on optimal prices, level of green innovation, and fuzzy expected profits of actors are also analyzed.

  9. The enactment stage of end-of-life decision-making for children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Jane Elizabeth; Gillam, Lynn Heather; Monagle, Paul Terence

    2018-01-11

    Typically pediatric end-of-life decision-making studies have examined the decision-making process, factors, and doctors' and parents' roles. Less attention has focussed on what happens after an end-of-life decision is made; that is, decision enactment and its outcome. This study explored the views and experiences of bereaved parents in end-of-life decision-making for their child. Findings reported relate to parents' experiences of acting on their decision. It is argued that this is one significant stage of the decision-making process. A qualitative methodology was used. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with bereaved parents, who had discussed end-of-life decisions for their child who had a life-limiting condition and who had died. Data were thematically analysed. Twenty-five bereaved parents participated. Findings indicate that, despite differences in context, including the child's condition and age, end-of-life decision-making did not end when an end-of-life decision was made. Enacting the decision was the next stage in a process. Time intervals between stages and enactment pathways varied, but the enactment was always distinguishable as a separate stage. Decision enactment involved making further decisions - parents needed to discern the appropriate time to implement their decision to withdraw or withhold life-sustaining medical treatment. Unexpected events, including other people's actions, impacted on parents enacting their decision in the way they had planned. Several parents had to re-implement decisions when their child recovered from serious health issues without medical intervention. Significance of results A novel, critical finding was that parents experienced end-of-life decision-making as a sequence of interconnected stages, the final stage being enactment. The enactment stage involved further decision-making. End-of-life decision-making is better understood as a process rather than a discrete once-off event. The enactment stage has particular

  10. NPPO-TINA: An expert system acting as catalyst for decision-making processes of the reactor operator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gieci, A.; Gyarfas, F.

    1991-01-01

    The prototype of the NPPO-TINA expert system (Nuclear Power Plant Operation-Transparent Inference Architecture) is described. This system has been developed to support the entire decision-making intellectual activity in the control of complex technological processes. One of the ways leading to human-machine symbiosis in the integrated cognitive system is outlined. The starting model of the situation in which the operator's problem-solving task begins is described. The characteristics of human behavior in decision-making are analyzed, and the moments are explained of the most suitable use of the expert system to support the whole intellectual activity, in knowledge-based decision-making by way of problem solving. The TINA environment for the formation of expert systems is described, including the hierarchic dynamic inference control. The process of building up the NPPO-TINA expert system is outlined, and the results of testing the system prototype on the problem of an accident of the nuclear power plant primary circuit due to a failure of the coolant make-up pumps are given. (Z.S.). 10 figs., 11 refs

  11. Transport fleet sizing by using make and buy decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stojanović Đurđica

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Cost reduction is among the main quoted reasons for logistics outsourcing, while transport capacities and operations are among the most outsourced logistics areas. However, according to transaction costs theory, there is often room for transport insourcing. Furthermore, nowadays many authors stress that mixed solutions can give better results than “make” or “buy” alternatives. “Make or buy” decision-making normative models, methods, and procedures in transport planning are not much explored. Instead, research is rather focused on carrier selection techniques, whereby it is supposed that outsourcing transport capacities is the most suitable solution. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the body of literature on classical “makeor-buy” decision-making in transport fleet sizing in a non-logistics enterprise. It goes beyond the basic “make or buy” decisionmaking, and intermediate solutions (i.e., “make and buy” are explored. Practical directions are given according to theoretical principles, and a case study is used to exemplify the main deductions. The research also has practical implications. Many enterprises in transition economies have faced the question of what to do with their in-house transport fleets. The obtained results are of interest to merchants and manufacturing enterprises that already have a private transport fleet and are considering how to rationalize it.

  12. Knowledge, decision making, and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, J.

    1986-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it

  13. Modelling decision-making by pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Nicholas J. M.

    1993-01-01

    Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).

  14. Expectation Violation in Political Decision Making: A Psychological Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Öllinger

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Since the early Gestaltists there has been a strong interest in the question of how problem solvers get stuck in a mental impasse. A key idea is that the repeated activation of a successful strategy from the past results in a mental set (‘Einstellung’ which determines and constrains the option space to solve a problem. We propose that this phenomenon, which mostly was tested by fairly restricted experiments in the lab, could also be applied to more complex problem constellations and naturalistic decision making. We aim at scrutinizing and reconstructing how a mental set determines the misinterpretation of facts in the field of political decision making and leads in consequence to wrong expectations and an ill-defined problem representation. We will exemplify this psychological mechanism considering a historical example, namely the unexpected stabilization of the Franco regime at the end of World War II and its survival thereafter. A specific focus will be drawn to the significant observation that erroneous expectations were taken as the basis for decisions. This is congruent with the notion that in case of discrepancy between preconceived notions and new information, the former prevails over the new findings. Based on these findings, we suggest a theoretical model for expectation violation in political decision making and develop novel approaches for cognitive empirical research on the mechanisms of expectation violation and its maintenance in political decision making processes.

  15. Decision framework for corridor planning within the roadside right-of-way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    A decision framework was developed for context-sensitive planning within the roadside ROW in : Michigan. This framework provides a roadside suitability assessment model that may be used to : support integrated decision-making and policy level conside...

  16. Self-Esteem in Decision Making and Decision-Making Styles of Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temel, Veysel; Birol, Sefa Sahan; Nas, Kazim; Akpinar, Selahattin; Tekin, Murat

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the study was to examine the self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles of the teachers in various branches of Çat town of Erzurum Province, Turkey in terms of some variables in 2014-2015 year. A total of 153 teachers (84 females and 69 males) (age (? = 1.6536 ± 0.72837) from different departments participated in the…

  17. Exploring the decision-making process in the delivery of physiotherapy in a stroke unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlinchey, Mark P; Davenport, Sally

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the decision-making process in the delivery of physiotherapy in a stroke unit. A focused ethnographical approach involving semi-structured interviews and observations of clinical practice was used. A purposive sample of seven neurophysiotherapists and four patients participated in semi-structured interviews. From this group, three neurophysiotherapists and four patients were involved in observation of practice. Data from interviews and observations were analysed to generate themes. Three themes were identified: planning the ideal physiotherapy delivery, the reality of physiotherapy delivery and involvement in the decision-making process. Physiotherapists used a variety of clinical reasoning strategies and considered many factors to influence their decision-making in the planning and delivery of physiotherapy post-stroke. These factors included the therapist's clinical experience, patient's presentation and response to therapy, prioritisation, organisational constraints and compliance with organisational practice. All physiotherapists highlighted the importance to involve patients in planning and delivering their physiotherapy. However, there were varying levels of patient involvement observed in this process. The study has generated insight into the reality of decision-making in the planning and delivery of physiotherapy post-stroke. Further research involving other stroke units is required to gain a greater understanding of this aspect of physiotherapy. Implications for Rehabilitation Physiotherapists need to consider multiple patient, therapist and organisational factors when planning and delivering physiotherapy in a stroke unit. Physiotherapists should continually reflect upon how they provide physiotherapy, with respect to the duration, frequency and time of day sessions are delivered, in order to guide current and future physiotherapy delivery. As patients may demonstrate varying levels of participation in deciding and

  18. A FTA-based method for risk decision-making in emergency response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yang; Li, Hongyan

    2014-01-01

    Decision-making problems in emergency response are usually risky and uncertain due to the limited decision data and possible evolvement of emergency scenarios. This paper focuses on a risk decisionmaking problem in emergency response with several distinct characteristics including dynamic...... evolvement process of emergency, multiple scenarios, and impact of response actions on the emergency scenarios. A method based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is proposed to solve the problem. By analyzing the evolvement process of emergency, the Fault Tree (FT) is constructed to describe the logical relations...

  19. Medical futility in children's nursing: making end-of-life decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brien, Irene O; Duffy, Anita; Shea, Ellen O

    Caring for infants at end of life is challenging and distressing for parents and healthcare professionals, especially in relation to making decisions regarding withholding or withdrawal of treatment. The concept of medical futility must be considered under these circumstances. Parents and healthcare professionals should be involved together in making these difficult decisions. However, for some parents, emotions and guilt often are unbearable and, understandably, parents can be reluctant to make a decision. Despite the recognition of parental autonomy, if parents disagree with a decision made by medical staff, the case will be referred to and solved by the courts. The courts' decisions are often based on the best interest of the child. In this article, the authors discuss the concepts of 'parental autonomy' and 'the child's best interests' when determining medical futility for infants or neonates. The role of the nurse when caring for the dying child and their family is multifaceted. While nurses do not have a legitimate role in decision making at the end of life, it is often nurses who, through their advocacy role, inform doctors about parents' wishes and it is often nurses who support parents during this difficult time. Furthermore, nurses caring for dying children should be familiar to the family, experienced in end-of-life care and comfortable talking to parents about death and dying and treatment choices. Children's nurses therefore require advanced communication skills and an essential understanding of the ethical and legal knowledge relating to medical futility in end-of-life children's nursing.

  20. Medical futility in children's nursing: making end-of-life decisions.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Brien, Irene O

    2012-02-01

    Caring for infants at end of life is challenging and distressing for parents and healthcare professionals, especially in relation to making decisions regarding withholding or withdrawal of treatment. The concept of medical futility must be considered under these circumstances. Parents and healthcare professionals should be involved together in making these difficult decisions. However, for some parents, emotions and guilt often are unbearable and, understandably, parents can be reluctant to make a decision. Despite the recognition of parental autonomy, if parents disagree with a decision made by medical staff, the case will be referred to and solved by the courts. The courts\\' decisions are often based on the best interest of the child. In this article, the authors discuss the concepts of \\'parental autonomy\\' and \\'the child\\'s best interests\\' when determining medical futility for infants or neonates. The role of the nurse when caring for the dying child and their family is multifaceted. While nurses do not have a legitimate role in decision making at the end of life, it is often nurses who, through their advocacy role, inform doctors about parents\\' wishes and it is often nurses who support parents during this difficult time. Furthermore, nurses caring for dying children should be familiar to the family, experienced in end-of-life care and comfortable talking to parents about death and dying and treatment choices. Children\\'s nurses therefore require advanced communication skills and an essential understanding of the ethical and legal knowledge relating to medical futility in end-of-life children\\'s nursing.

  1. Improving efficiency of decision making units through BSC-DEA technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Reza Khaki

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance evaluation is one of the most important techniques to prioritize different decision making units. Data envelopment analysis (DEA, as a non-parametric method, plays an important role for measuring relative efficiency. Balanced score card, on the other hand, is another method to evaluate a business plan based on non-financial perspectives. The integrated BSC-DEA takes advantage of the advantages of both methods' features. In this paper, we propose a BSC-DEA method to rank different decision making units. We consider different financial criteria such as profit-margin, return on assets along with non-financial criteria such as customer satisfaction, advanced services, employee skills to compare the performance of different banks. The results are analyzed and discussed, which could be used for making better decisions.

  2. Multi criteria decision making using correlation coefficient under rough neutrosophic environment

    OpenAIRE

    Pramanik, Surapati; Roy, Rumi; Roy, Tapan Kumar; Smarandache, Florentin

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we define correlation coefficient measure between any two rough neutrosophic sets. We also prove some of its basic properties. We develop a new multiple attribute group decision making method based on the proposed correlation coefficient measure. An illustrative example of medical diagnosis is solved to demonstrate the applicability and effecriveness of the proposed method.

  3. Advance care planning and end-of-life decision making in dialysis: a randomized controlled trial targeting patients and their surrogates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Mi-Kyung; Ward, Sandra E; Fine, Jason P; Hanson, Laura C; Lin, Feng-Chang; Hladik, Gerald A; Hamilton, Jill B; Bridgman, Jessica C

    2015-11-01

    Few trials have examined long-term outcomes of advance care planning (ACP) interventions. We examined the efficacy of an ACP intervention on preparation for end-of-life decision making for dialysis patients and surrogates and for surrogates' bereavement outcomes. A randomized trial compared an ACP intervention (Sharing Patient's Illness Representations to Increase Trust [SPIRIT]) to usual care alone, with blinded outcome assessments. 420 participants (210 dyads of prevalent dialysis patients and their surrogates) from 20 dialysis centers. Every dyad received usual care. Those randomly assigned to SPIRIT had an in-depth ACP discussion at the center and a follow-up session at home 2 weeks later. preparation for end-of-life decision making, assessed for 12 months, included dyad congruence on goals of care at end of life, patient decisional conflict, surrogate decision-making confidence, and a composite of congruence and surrogate decision-making confidence. bereavement outcomes, assessed for 6 months, included anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic distress symptoms completed by surrogates after patient death. adjusting for time and baseline values, dyad congruence (OR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.1-3.3), surrogate decision-making confidence (β=0.13; 95% CI, 0.01-0.24), and the composite (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.0-3.2) were better in SPIRIT than controls, but patient decisional conflict did not differ between groups (β=-0.01; 95% CI, -0.12 to 0.10). 45 patients died during the study. Surrogates in SPIRIT had less anxiety (β=-1.13; 95% CI, -2.23 to -0.03), depression (β=-2.54; 95% CI, -4.34 to -0.74), and posttraumatic distress (β=-5.75; 95% CI, -10.9 to -0.64) than controls. Study was conducted in a single US region. SPIRIT was associated with improvements in dyad preparation for end-of-life decision making and surrogate bereavement outcomes. Copyright © 2015 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Decision-Making Based on Emotional Images

    OpenAIRE

    Katahira, Kentaro; Fujimura, Tomomi; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato

    2011-01-01

    The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...

  5. Decision making based on emotional images

    OpenAIRE

    Kentaro eKatahira; Kentaro eKatahira; Kentaro eKatahira; Tomomi eFujimura; Tomomi eFujimura; Kazuo eOkanoya; Kazuo eOkanoya; Kazuo eOkanoya; Masato eOkada; Masato eOkada; Masato eOkada

    2011-01-01

    The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward...

  6. Ethical decision-making, passivity and pharmacy

    OpenAIRE

    Cooper, R.J.; Bissell, P.; Wingfield, J.

    2008-01-01

    Background: Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making.\\ud \\ud Aims: To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an und...

  7. Social cobots: Anticipatory decision-making for collaborative robots incorporating unexpected human behaviors

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Can Görür, O

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We propose an architecture as a robot’s decision-making mechanism to anticipate a human’s state of mind, and so plan accordingly during a human-robot collaboration task. At the core of the architecture lies a novel stochastic decision...

  8. Shared decision-making in Israel: status, barriers, and recommendations

    OpenAIRE

    Miron-Shatz, Talya; Golan, Ofra; Brezis, Mayer; Siegal, Gil; Doniger, Glen M

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Shared decision making (SDM) - involving patients in decisions relevant to their health - has been increasingly influential in medical thought and practice around the world. This paper reviews the current status of SDM in Israel, including efforts to promote SDM in the legislation and healthcare system, its influence in medical training and the national health plans, and funding for SDM-related research. Published studies of SDM in Israel are also reviewed. Although informed consent ...

  9. VIKOR Method for Interval Neutrosophic Multiple Attribute Group Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Han Huang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we will extend the VIKOR (VIsekriterijumska optimizacija i KOmpromisno Resenje method to multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM with interval neutrosophic numbers (INNs. Firstly, the basic concepts of INNs are briefly presented. The method first aggregates all individual decision-makers’ assessment information based on an interval neutrosophic weighted averaging (INWA operator, and then employs the extended classical VIKOR method to solve MAGDM problems with INNs. The validity and stability of this method are verified by example analysis and sensitivity analysis, and its superiority is illustrated by a comparison with the existing methods.

  10. Moral and Ethical Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-07-01

    rational ones (i.e. Kohlberg’s influential model of decision making ). However, non- rational elements, such as affect, risk perception, risk preference...dread or anxiety) play a strong role in many types of decisions , and that the addition of decision makers’ emotions to models of choice may make ...White, 1994) agree that emotions are an integral part of ethical decision making as well. Emotions arise in the context of interpersonal

  11. Dual hesitant pythagorean fuzzy Hamacher aggregation operators in multiple attribute decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Guiwu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the multiple attribute decision making (MADM problem based on the Hamacher aggregation operators with dual Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy information. Then, motivated by the ideal of Hamacher operation, we have developed some Hamacher aggregation operators for aggregating dual hesitant Pythagorean fuzzy information. The prominent characteristic of these proposed operators are studied. Then, we have utilized these operators to develop some approaches to solve the dual hesitant Pythagorean fuzzy multiple attribute decision making problems. Finally, a practical example for supplier selection in supply chain management is given to verify the developed approach and to demonstrate its practicality and effectiveness.

  12. Evaluating collaborative planning methods supporting programmebased planning in natural resource management

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vacik, H.; Kurttila, M.; Hujala, T.; Khadka, Chiranjeewee; Haara, A.; Pykäläinen, J.; Honkakoski, P.; Wolfslehner, B.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 144, NOV 2014 (2014), s. 304-315 ISSN 0301-4797 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : participatory planning * group decision making * problem identification * problem modeling * problem solving * natural resource management Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.723, year: 2014

  13. Constraint programming and decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    2014-01-01

    In many application areas, it is necessary to make effective decisions under constraints. Several area-specific techniques are known for such decision problems; however, because these techniques are area-specific, it is not easy to apply each technique to other applications areas. Cross-fertilization between different application areas is one of the main objectives of the annual International Workshops on Constraint Programming and Decision Making. Those workshops, held in the US (El Paso, Texas), in Europe (Lyon, France), and in Asia (Novosibirsk, Russia), from 2008 to 2012, have attracted researchers and practitioners from all over the world. This volume presents extended versions of selected papers from those workshops. These papers deal with all stages of decision making under constraints: (1) formulating the problem of multi-criteria decision making in precise terms, (2) determining when the corresponding decision problem is algorithmically solvable; (3) finding the corresponding algorithms, and making...

  14. Adapting Scott and Bruce's General Decision-Making Style Inventory to Patient Decision Making in Provider Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Sophia; Soyez, Katja; Gurtner, Sebastian

    2015-05-01

    Research testing the concept of decision-making styles in specific contexts such as health care-related choices is missing. Therefore, we examine the contextuality of Scott and Bruce's (1995) General Decision-Making Style Inventory with respect to patient choice situations. Scott and Bruce's scale was adapted for use as a patient decision-making style inventory. In total, 388 German patients who underwent elective joint surgery responded to a questionnaire about their provider choice. Confirmatory factor analyses within 2 independent samples assessed factorial structure, reliability, and validity of the scale. The final 4-dimensional, 13-item patient decision-making style inventory showed satisfactory psychometric properties. Data analyses supported reliability and construct validity. Besides the intuitive, dependent, and avoidant style, a new subdimension, called "comparative" decision-making style, emerged that originated from the rational dimension of the general model. This research provides evidence for the contextuality of decision-making style to specific choice situations. Using a limited set of indicators, this report proposes the patient decision-making style inventory as valid and feasible tool to assess patients' decision propensities. © The Author(s) 2015.

  15. Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

    OpenAIRE

    Eroğlu Başak; Özkan Zekiye; Eroğlu Arif Kaan; Bilgin Şakire

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish ...

  16. How customer relationship management influences making better decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Izadi Manesh

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Customers are the primary sources of making appropriate decisions and their feedbacks normally help us improve the quality of systems. In this paper, we present an empirical study to detect important factors influencing managers of banking industry make better decisions. The proposed study designs a questionnaire in Likert scale consists of 32 questions, distributes it among some bank managers. Cronbach alpha is calculated as 0.805. In addition, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy and Approx. Chi-Square are 0.701 and 1675, respectively. Based on the results of our survey, we have derived nine factors including customers’ welfare strategy, systems integration, organizational culture assessment, corporate strategies, organizational development, intelligence data strategies, supporting strategies, resource planning as well as research and development.

  17. Democracy and Environmental Integration in Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Figueroa, Maria

    This dissertation presents an evaluation of the democratic qualities of decision-making processes for large transport infrastructure projects in two Scandinavian countries: Denmark and Sweden. The study uncovers criteria from aggregative and deliberative theories of democracy to create a qualitat......This dissertation presents an evaluation of the democratic qualities of decision-making processes for large transport infrastructure projects in two Scandinavian countries: Denmark and Sweden. The study uncovers criteria from aggregative and deliberative theories of democracy to create...... exemplify points of democratic strength and fragility in the decision processes. A robust system of participatory procedures exists, in both countries, as part of the planning tradition or as part of the legally mandatory environmental assessment procedures. This robust system shows fragility for government...... discourses to the state. While the role of civil society in deliberation is crucial, the study accepts that not all that goes on in civil society is conducive either to more democracy or greater environmental integration. The relevant discussion is then how to deal with differences that may have...

  18. Role of affect in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandyopadhyay, Debarati; Pammi, V S Chandrasekhar; Srinivasan, Narayanan

    2013-01-01

    Emotion plays a major role in influencing our everyday cognitive and behavioral functions, including decision making. We introduce different ways in which emotions are characterized in terms of the way they influence or elicited by decision making. This chapter discusses different theories that have been proposed to explain the role of emotions in judgment and decision making. We also discuss incidental emotional influences, both long-duration influences like mood and short-duration influences by emotional context present prior to or during decision making. We present and discuss results from a study with emotional pictures presented prior to decision making and how that influences both decision processes and postdecision experience as a function of uncertainty. We conclude with a summary of the work on emotions and decision making in the context of decision-making theories and our work on incidental emotions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Diverting the tourists: a spatial decision-support system for tourism planning on a developing island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beedasy, Jaishree; Whyatt, Duncan

    Mauritius is a small island (1865 km 2) in the Indian Ocean. Tourism is the third largest economic sector of the country, after manufacturing and agriculture. A limitation of space and the island's vulnerable ecosystem warrants a rational approach to tourism development. The main problems so far have been to manipulate and integrate all the factors affecting tourism planning and to match spatial data with their relevant attributes. A Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) for sustainable tourism planning is therefore proposed. The proposed SDSS design would include a GIS as its core component. A first GIS model has already been constructed with available data. Supporting decision-making in a spatial context is implicit in the use of GIS. However the analytical capability of the GIS has to be enhanced to solve semi-structured problems, where subjective judgements come into play. The second part of the paper deals with the choice, implementation and customisation of a relevant model to develop a specialised SDSS. Different types of models and techniques are discussed, in particular a comparison of compensatory and non-compensatory approaches to multicriteria evaluation (MCE). It is concluded that compensatory multicriteria evaluation techniques increase the scope of the present GIS model as a decision-support tool. This approach gives the user or decision-maker the flexibility to change the importance of each criterion depending on relevant objectives.

  20. Soft system methodology and decision making in community planning system

    OpenAIRE

    Křupka, Jiří; Kašparová, Miloslava; Jirava, Pavel; Mandys, Jan; Ferynová, Lenka; Duplinský, Josef

    2013-01-01

    A model of community planning was defined in this paper. The model was designed for the city of Pardubice and works with real questionnaire research data sets in its evaluation phase. Questionnaires were submitted to fill users, providers and sponsors of social services. When creating the model was used Checkland’s soft system methodology. Also soft computing methods and decision trees were used to create the model. The model was implemented in the data mining tool IBM SPSS Modeler 14.

  1. Strategic planning decisions in the high tech industry

    CERN Document Server

    Daim, Tugrul; Beyhan, Berna; Basoglu, Nuri

    2013-01-01

    The scale and complexity of research and practices of open innovation mandate a correspondingly sophisticated form of decision making. Strategic Planning Decisions brings together a number of tools that ease the decision process in technology companies, providing both conceptual frameworks and practical applications. Innovative approaches are presented such as an ontology-based model where all the relevant aspects of a potential technology are interrelated to provide a comprehensive and logically connected data pool for decision makers. Divided into two sections, Strategic Planning Decisions describe both strategic approaches using the decision tools, and tactical approaches. Some of these tools are expanded while some others are embedded in a model that will lay the ground for practical application. These include: ·         bibliometric analysis, ·         ontology, ·         roadmapping, ·         lead user, six sigma, and ·         multi-actor & multi-object...

  2. The Self in Decision Making and Decision Implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Lee Roy; Mitchell, Terence R.

    Since the early 1950's the principal prescriptive model in the psychological study of decision making has been maximization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). This SEU maximization has come to be regarded as a description of how people go about making decisions. However, while observed decision processes sometimes resemble the SEU model,…

  3. Variation in decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.

    2012-01-01

    Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such

  4. Complexity in organizations and environment - adaptive changes and adaptive decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Fabac

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The features of complexity are ever more present in modern organizations and in environments in which they operate, trying to survive and be as competitive as possible. In the processes of, the so-called emergence, the formal organizational structure, designed purposefully and with a plan, is going through a change due to complexity and the need for adaptation. As a result, there is a variety of new informal groups. At the same time, the intended structural changes and business process changes occur because of the perception that the leadership and senior organizational management have of the strategic situation. Managers in modern organizations often use business intelligence (BI systems when making important business decisions. These systems offer support to the decision-making by gathering and processing relevant data and information about the company performance, but also about the data on conditions in close and remote environment. A modern company is characterized by the complex adaptive system, but the environment in which it operates together with other business subjects (agents is also complex. Consequently, the requirements for appropriate or optimal decisions and successfully completed activities are hard to meet. Given that expected future events and circumstances often occur in nonlinear mechanisms, the decisions made by following the models of traditional predicting and planning are not satisfactory. This calls for new approaches to decision making and acting.

  5. Married women's decision making power on modern contraceptive use in urban and rural southern Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tilahun Tizta

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Women in developing countries are either under collective decision making with their partners or completely rely on the male partner's decision on issues that affect their reproductive live. Identifying the major barriers of married women's decision making power on contraceptive use has significant relevance for planning contextually appropriate family planning interventions. The objective of this study was to determine current modern contraceptive practices and decision making power among married women in Tercha Town and surrounding rural areas of Dawro zone, Southern Ethiopia. Methods Community based comparative cross-sectional design with both quantitative and Qualitative study has been employed in March and April 2010. The respondents were 699 married women of child bearing age from urban and rural parts of Dawro zone. After conducting census, we took the sample using simple random sampling technique. Results Current modern contraceptive use among married women in the urban was 293 (87.5% and 243 (72.8% in rural. Married women who reside in urban area were more likely to decide on the use of modern contraceptive method than rural women. Having better knowledge about modern contraceptive methods, gender equitable attitude, better involvement in decisions related to children, socio-cultural and family relations were statistically significant factors for decision making power of women on the use of modern contraceptive methods in the urban setting. Better knowledge, fear of partner's opposition or negligence, involvement in decisions about child and economic affairs were statistically significant factors for better decision making power of women on the use of modern contraceptive methods in the rural part. Conclusions High level of current modern contraceptive practice with reduced urban-rural difference was found as compared to regional and national figures. Urban women had better power to make decisions on modern

  6. The Effect of Decision-Making Skill Training Programs on Self-Esteem and Decision-Making Styles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colakkadioglu, Oguzhan; Celik, D. Billur

    2016-01-01

    Problem Statement: Decision making is a critical cognitive process in every area of human life. In this process, the individuals play an active role and obtain outputs with their functional use of decision-making skills. Therefore, the decision-making process can affect the course of life, life satisfaction, and the social relations of an…

  7. The decision-making process in public healthcare entities – identification of the decision-making process type

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymaniec-Mlicka Karolina

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The decisions made in the organization determine its success, therefore, conducting studies in the scope of decision-making seems important both for theory and practice. The aim of the studies was to identify the type of decision-making process in public medical entities with the use of typology developed by P. Nutt. For this purpose we used qualitative methods. Interviews with 8 directors of hospitals were conducted and the reconstruction was made on the basis of the decision-making process, which enabled the assignment of the model of decision-making process to the organization. The research indicated that four organizations use the historical decision-making model, three organizations represent the model of generating solutions, and one organization uses the model of available solutions.

  8. A New Interlink Decision Making Index for Making Multi-criteria Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Hu

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Multi-criteria decisions usually require measurement or evaluation of performance in different units and their mix by application of weighting factors. This approach lads to potential manipulation of the results as a direct consequence of the applied weightings. In this paper a mechanism that is the brain child of the authors, has been proposed to overcome this problem. It is known as the Interlink Decision Making Index (IDMI and has all the desired features: simple, interlink (all criteria and automatically guaranteed dominant influence of critical criteria (i.e. no human weighting needed. The IDMI is capable of reflecting the total merits of a particular option once the normal decision making criteria and (up to two critical criteria have been chosen. Then, without arbitrarily weighting criteria, comparison and selection of the best possible option can be made. Simple software has been developed to do this numerical transfer and graphic presentation. Two hypothetical examples are presented in the paper to demonstrate the application of the IDMI concept and its advantages over the traditional "tabular and weightingmethod" in the decision making process. 

  9. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

  10. Collaborative Decision Making in METOC

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    desired effect (Eagly, & Chaiken, 1993). Arguably, artificial intelligence is representative of the best of approaches in rational decision - making ...2001), The quantum of social action and the function of emotion in decision - making , Emotional and Intelligent II: The Tangled Knot of Social...Collaborative decision making in METOC W.F. Lawless Paine College, Departments of Mathematics and Psychology Augusta, GA 30901-3182 ph: 706

  11. Advancing in the Career Decision-Making Process: The Role of Coping Strategies and Career Decision-Making Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Maya; Gati, Itamar

    2017-01-01

    We tested the associations among the career decision-making difficulties, the career decision status, and either (a) the career decision-making profiles of 575 young adults, or (b) the coping strategies of 379 young adults. As hypothesized, a more advanced decision status was negatively associated with both career decision-making difficulties…

  12. Decision-making: Theory and Practice

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Turpin, SM

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available of decision support technology. Much variation was found in people’s personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information...

  13. Nurse managers' decision-making in daily unit operation in peri-operative settings: a cross-sectional descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siirala, Eriikka; Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Lundgrén-Laine, Heljä; Salanterä, Sanna; Junttila, Kristiina

    2016-09-01

    To describe the tactical and the operational decisions made by nurse managers when managing the daily unit operation in peri-operative settings. Management is challenging as situations change rapidly and decisions are constantly made. Understanding decision-making in this complex environment helps to develop decision support systems to support nurse managers' operative and tactical decision-making. Descriptive cross-sectional design. Data were collected from 20 nurse managers with the think-aloud method during the busiest working hours and analysed using thematic content analysis. Nurse managers made over 700 decisions; either ad hoc (n = 289), near future (n = 268) or long-term (n = 187) by nature. Decisions were often made simultaneously with many interruptions. Ad hoc decisions covered staff allocation, ensuring adequate staff, rescheduling surgical procedures, confirmation tangible resources and following-up the daily unit operation. Decisions in the near future were: planning of surgical procedures and tangible resources, and planning staff allocation. Long-term decisions were: human recourses, nursing development, supplies and equipment, and finances in the unit. Decision-making was vulnerable to interruptions, which sometimes complicated the managing tasks. The results can be used when planning decision support systems and when defining the nurse managers' tasks in peri-operative settings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Decision-Making Theories and Models: A Discussion of Rational and Psychological Decision-Making Theories and Models: The Search for a Cultural-Ethical Decision-Making Model

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira, Arnaldo

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines rational and psychological decision-making models. Descriptive and normative methodologies such as attribution theory, schema theory, prospect theory, ambiguity model, game theory, and expected utility theory are discussed. The definition of culture is reviewed, and the relationship between culture and decision making is also highlighted as many organizations use a cultural-ethical decision-making model.

  15. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homberg, Judith R

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients. Detailed insight into the serotonergic mechanisms underlying decision making is needed to strengthen the first and weaken the latter. Although much remains to be done to achieve this, accumulating studies begin to deliver a coherent view. Thus, high central 5-HT levels are generally associated with improved reversal learning, improved attentional set shifting, decreased delay discounting, and increased response inhibition, but a failure to use outcome representations. Based on 5-HT's evolutionary role, I hypothesize that 5-HT integrates expected, or changes in, relevant sensory and emotional internal/external information, leading to vigilance behaviour affecting various decision making processes. 5-HT receptor subtypes play distinctive roles in decision making. 5-HT(2A) agonists and 5-HT2c antagonists decrease compulsivity, whereas 5-HT(2A) antagonists and 5-HT(2C) agonists decrease impulsivity. 5-HT(6) antagonists univocally affect decision making processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. An Analysis of the Associations among Cognitive Impulsiveness, Reasoning Process, and Rational Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jelihovschi, Ana P G; Cardoso, Ricardo L; Linhares, Alexandre

    2017-01-01

    Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve problems. For this purpose, we apply two measures of impulsivity: the self-report Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11) and the performance based Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). Moreover, we evaluate participants' reasoning processes employed to answer CRT questions based on the calculation expressions, data organization, and erasures they made while answering the CRT (note that we utilized the instruments using pen and paper). These reasoning processes are related to the role of executive functions in decision making, and its relationship with impulsiveness. The sample consists of 191 adults, who were either professionals or undergraduate students from the fields of business, management, or accounting. The results show that cognitive impulsiveness may negatively affect decision making, and that those who presented the calculation to answer the CRT questions made better decisions. Moreover, there was no difference in the strategies used by impulsive vs. nonimpulsive participants during decision making. Finally, people who inhibited their immediate answers to CRT questions performed better during decision making.

  17. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)

  18. Entrepreneurs` Cognitive and Decision Making Styles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Motvaseli

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to explore the relation between decision-making styles which are measured by the General decision-making style (GDMS test and information processing styles which are often termed cognitive styles and are, in this study, measured by Cognitive Style Inventory. The authors directed a survey research on 162 Iranian students. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles. The authors found that cognitive styles have a positive impact on decision-making styles. In spite of the abundant research on factors that affect decision-making styles, few researches have tested the relationship between cognitive styles and decision-making styles. This study examines the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles in Iran. This study, like most research paper studies, cannot easily be generalized. Furthermore, the results of this study could be affected by economic conditions.

  19. Sustainable energy planning decision using the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: choosing energy technology in Malaysia: necessary modifications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Qudaimi, Abdullah; Kumar, Amit

    2018-05-01

    Recently, Abdullah and Najib (International Journal of Sustainable Energy 35(4): 360-377, 2016) proposed an intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to deal with uncertainty in decision-making and applied it to establish preference in the sustainable energy planning decision-making of Malaysia. This work may attract the researchers of other countries to choose energy technology for their countries. However, after a deep study of the published paper (International Journal of Sustainable Energy 35(4): 362-377, 2016), it is noticed that the expression used by Abdullah and Najib in Step 6 of their proposed method for evaluating the intuitionistic fuzzy entropy of each aggregate of each row of intuitionistic fuzzy matrix is not valid. Therefore, it is not genuine to use the method proposed by Abdullah and Najib for solving real-life problems. The aim of this paper was to suggest the required necessary modifications for resolving the flaws of the Abdullah and Najib method.

  20. Decision making on fitness landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.

    2017-04-01

    We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.

  1. Decision Making on Fitness Landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....

  2. Decision-making deficits in normal elderly persons associated with executive personality disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Christopher M; Barrash, Joseph; Koenigs, Anna L; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L

    2013-11-01

    The problems that some community-dwelling elderly persons develop in real-world decision-making may have disastrous consequences for their health and financial well-being. Investigations across the adult life span have identified personality as an important individual differences variable that is related to decision-making ability. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between personality characteristics, as rated by an informant, and complex decision-making performance among elderly persons. It was hypothesized that deficits in decision-making would be associated with personality characteristics reflecting weak executive functioning (Lack of Planning, Poor Judgment, Lack of Persistence, Perseveration, Lack of Initiative, Impulsivity, and Indecisiveness). Fifty-eight elderly persons participated. Their health and cognitive status were deemed intact via comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation. The Iowa Scales of Personality, completed by an informant, was used to assess personality characteristics, and the Iowa Gambling Task, completed by the participant, was used to assess complex decision-making abilities. Longstanding disturbances in executive personality characteristics were found to be associated with poor decision-making, and these disturbances remained predictive of poor decision-making even after taking into consideration demographic, neuropsychological, and mood factors. Acquired personality disturbances did not add significantly to prediction after longstanding disturbances were taken into account. Disturbances in other dimensions of personality were not significantly associated with poor decision-making. Our study suggests that attentiveness to the personality correlates of difficulties with aspects of executive functioning over the adult years could enhance the ability to identify older individuals at risk for problems with real-world decision-making.

  3. Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

    2013-01-01

    The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a

  4. Decision making in energy policies with conflicting interests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.

    1988-01-01

    After the accident in Chernobyl policy making and implementation of energy decisions have become more difficult than ever. On the one hand the public reacts with fear and opposition to a possible extention of nuclear power, on the other hand the economic prosperity of a country depends on an inexpensive and non-exhaustive energy source like nuclear energy. The paper describes a concept of energy planning developed by a study group of the Nuclear Research Centre in Julich (FRG). The concept is based on the idea that in a pluralistic society different social groups should participate in the policy formulation process and that the values of the public should be incorporated in the weighting process to make choices between given options. As reference theory the basic framework of decision analysis is used. (orig./DG)

  5. Changing Gender Roles and Decision Making in Dangme West

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    government agencies must strategically tackle the complexities of decision- making and ... Within the traditional Ghanaian family, there is unequal power relation between men ... strategies and plans of action for the advancement of women. ..... 'In these our fishing communities, men travel a lot; if you don't do that there will ...

  6. Decision Making in Adults with ADHD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montyla, Timo; Still, Johanna; Gullberg, Stina; Del Missier, Fabio

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: This study examined decision-making competence in ADHD by using multiple decision tasks with varying demands on analytic versus affective processes. Methods: Adults with ADHD and healthy controls completed two tasks of analytic decision making, as measured by the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) battery, and two affective…

  7. Planning versus action: Different decision-making processes predict plans to change one's diet versus actual dietary behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiviniemi, Marc T; Brown-Kramer, Carolyn R

    2015-05-01

    Most health decision-making models posit that deciding to engage in a health behavior involves forming a behavioral intention which then leads to actual behavior. However, behavioral intentions and actual behavior may not be functionally equivalent. Two studies examined whether decision-making factors predicting dietary behaviors were the same as or distinct from those predicting intentions. Actual dietary behavior was proximally predicted by affective associations with the behavior. By contrast, behavioral intentions were predicted by cognitive beliefs about behaviors, with no contribution of affective associations. This dissociation has implications for understanding individual regulation of health behaviors and for behavior change interventions. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. Strategic decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision

  9. Decision-making impairment in anorexia nervosa: New insights into the role of age and decision-making style.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannunzio, Valeria; Degortes, Daniela; Tenconi, Elena; Collantoni, Enrico; Solmi, Marco; Santonastaso, Paolo; Favaro, Angela

    2018-07-01

    Patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) often report difficulties in decision making, which may interfere with treatment. The aim of this study was to investigate decision making in a large sample of adolescent and adult patients with AN, by using the Iowa gambling task. Participants were 611 female individuals (310 patients and 301 controls) who underwent neuropsychological and clinical assessment. Significantly poorer decision-making performance was observed in adult patients, whereas no difference emerged between affected and nonaffected adolescents. Both adolescent and adult patients were characterized by trends for higher levels of attention to losses in comparison with healthy controls. Although healthy adult women exhibited better decision-making performance than healthy adolescents, in AN, there was no improvement of decision making with age. A cluster analysis identified 2 different styles of decision making in both patients and controls: a conservative style and an impulsive style. Our study provides evidence of dysfunctional decision making in adult patients with AN and reveals an association between poor decision making and excessive punishment sensitivity in AN. The clinical and scientific implications of these findings merit further exploration. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

  10. Integration of IAM and GIS technologies to support decision making in the planning and procurement of physical infrastructure for the treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Abbott, GR

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available approach to strategic planning and the provision of accommodation be developed. This paper provides an overview of new processes and a toolkit being developed in South Africa to support decision making in the planning, procurement, management and operation...

  11. Decision-making in real estate development : application of game theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clumac, B.; Blokhuis, E.G.J.; Han, Q.

    2011-01-01

    Decision making in real estate development projects has generally undergone a number of important changes over the last decades. This transition represented a shift from governmentally dominated top-down spatial planning to bottom-up, public-private engagement schemes in real estate development (Tam

  12. Motivations Underlying Career Decision-Making Activities: The Career Decision-Making Autonomy Scale (CDMAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guay, Frederic

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of the present research was to develop and validate a measure of motivation toward career decision-making activities, the Career Decision-Making Autonomy Scale (CDMAS). The CDMAS is designed to assess the constructs of intrinsic motivation, identified regulation, introjected regulation, and external regulation. A longitudinal study was…

  13. Ethical aspect price decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubor Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers, whose irreverence does not entail any juridical sanctions, rather its application is sanctioned by the self - awareness. The acception and stability of the ethical aspect price decision making are determined by the characteristic of selected marketing environment.

  14. An Investigation of Operational Decision Making in Situ: Incident Command in the U.K. Fire and Rescue Service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen-Hatton, Sabrina R; Butler, Philip C; Honey, Robert C

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this study was to better understand the nature of decision making at operational incidents in order to inform operational guidance and training. Normative models of decision making have been adopted in the guidance and training for emergency services. In these models, it is assumed that decision makers assess the current situation, formulate plans, and then execute the plans. However, our understanding of how decision making unfolds at operational incidents remains limited. Incident commanders, attending 33 incidents across six U.K. Fire and Rescue Services, were fitted with helmet-mounted cameras, and the resulting video footage was later independently coded and used to prompt participants to provide a running commentary concerning their decisions. The analysis revealed that assessment of the operational situation was most often followed by plan execution rather than plan formulation, and there was little evidence of prospection about the potential consequences of actions. This pattern of results was consistent across different types of incident, characterized by level of risk and time pressure, but was affected by the operational experience of the participants. Decision making did not follow the sequence of phases assumed by normative models and conveyed in current operational guidance but instead was influenced by both reflective and reflexive processes. These results have clear implications for understanding operational decision making as it occurs in situ and suggest a need for future guidance and training to acknowledge the role of reflexive processes. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  15. Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Technique for Gradation of Jute Fibres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhuri, P. K.

    2014-12-01

    Multi-Criteria Decision Making is a branch of Operation Research (OR) having a comparatively short history of about 40 years. It is being popularly used in the field of engineering, banking, fixing policy matters etc. It can also be applied for taking decisions in daily life like selecting a car to purchase, selecting bride or groom and many others. Various MCDM methods namely Weighted Sum Model (WSM), Weighted Product Model (WPM), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solutions (TOPSIS) and Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) are there to solve many decision making problems, each having its own limitations. However it is very difficult to decide which MCDM method is the best. MCDM methods are prospective quantitative approaches for solving decision problems involving finite number of alternatives and criteria. Very few research works in textiles have been carried out with the help of this technique particularly where decision taking among several alternatives becomes the major problem based on some criteria which are conflicting in nature. Gradation of jute fibres on the basis of the criteria like strength, root content, defects, colour, density, fineness etc. is an important task to perform. The MCDM technique provides enough scope to be applied for the gradation of jute fibres or ranking among several varieties keeping in view a particular object and on the basis of some selection criteria and their relative weightage. The present paper is an attempt to explore the scope of applying the multiplicative AHP method of multi-criteria decision making technique to determine the quality values of selected jute fibres on the basis of some above stated important criteria and ranking them accordingly. A good agreement in ranking is observed between the existing Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) grading and proposed method.

  16. Ethical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Zsolnai, László

    2011-01-01

    The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontologica...

  17. Ethical decision-making, passivity and pharmacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, R J; Bissell, P; Wingfield, J

    2008-06-01

    Increasing interest in empirical ethics has enhanced understanding of healthcare professionals' ethical problems and attendant decision-making. A four-stage decision-making model involving ethical attention, reasoning, intention and action offers further insights into how more than reasoning alone may contribute to decision-making. To explore how the four-stage model can increase understanding of decision-making in healthcare and describe the decision-making of an under-researched professional group. 23 purposively sampled UK community pharmacists were asked, in semi-structured interviews, to describe ethical problems in their work and how they were resolved. Framework analysis of transcribed interviews utilised the four decision-making stages, together with constant comparative methods and deviant-case analysis. Pharmacists were often inattentive and constructed problems in legal terms. Ethical reasoning was limited, but examples of appeals to consequences, the golden rule, religious faith and common-sense experience emerged. Ethical intention was compromised by frequent concern about legal prosecution. Ethical inaction was common, typified by pharmacists' failure to report healthcare professionals' bad practices, and ethical passivity emerged to describe these negative examples of the four decision-making stages. Pharmacists occasionally described more ethically active decision-making, but this often involved ethical uncertainty. The four decision-making stages are a useful tool in considering how healthcare professionals try to resolve ethical problems in practice. They reveal processes often ignored in normative theories, and their recognition and the emergence of ethical passivity indicates the complexity of decision-making in practice. Ethical passivity may be deleterious to patients' welfare, and concerns emerge about improving pharmacists' ethical training and promoting ethical awareness and responsibility.

  18. Shared decision-making and patient autonomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

    2009-01-01

    In patient-centred care, shared decision-making is advocated as the preferred form of medical decision-making. Shared decision-making is supported with reference to patient autonomy without abandoning the patient or giving up the possibility of influencing how the patient is benefited. It is, however, not transparent how shared decision-making is related to autonomy and, in effect, what support autonomy can give shared decision-making. In the article, different forms of shared decision-making are analysed in relation to five different aspects of autonomy: (1) self-realisation; (2) preference satisfaction; (3) self-direction; (4) binary autonomy of the person; (5) gradual autonomy of the person. It is argued that both individually and jointly these aspects will support the models called shared rational deliberative patient choice and joint decision as the preferred versions from an autonomy perspective. Acknowledging that both of these models may fail, the professionally driven best interest compromise model is held out as a satisfactory second-best choice.

  19. Environmental sustainable decision making – The need and obstacles for integration of LCA into decision analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

    2018-01-01

    systems, revealing potential problem shifting between life cycle stages. Through the integration with traditional risk based decision analysis, LCA may thus facilitate a better informed decision process. In this study we explore how environmental impacts are taken into account in different fields......Decision analysis is often used to help decision makers choose among alternatives, based on the expected utility associated to each alternative as function of its consequences and potential impacts. Environmental impacts are not always among the prioritized concerns of traditional decision making...... of interest for decision makers to identify the need, potential and obstacles for integrating LCA into conventional approaches to decision problems. Three application areas are used as examples: transportation planning, flood management, and food production and consumption. The analysis of these cases shows...

  20. A life-cycle based decision-making framework for electricity generation system planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norrie, S.J.; Fang, L. [Ryerson Polytechnic Univ., Toronto, ON (Canada). Environmental Applied Science and Management Graduate Program

    2006-07-01

    This paper proposed a framework for the consideration of multiple objectives in the long-term planning of electricity generation systems. The framework was comprised of 3 components: (1) information based on life-cycle inventories of electricity generation technologies; (2) a set of alternative scenarios to be evaluated and ranked using the framework; and (3) stakeholder values for decision objectives. Scenarios were developed to represent a set of future conditions, and values were derived through the use of questionnaires. Planning for electricity generation in Ontario was selected as a test case for the DM framework. Three scenarios were presented: (1) a business as usual scenario characterized by large, central power plants; (2) a mix of central power plants, distributed generation, and advanced conventional fuel technologies; and (3) small-scale distributed and renewable energy sources and aggressive demand-side management. The life-cycle based information from the scenario evaluation was used to estimate the performance of each scenario on the established decision criteria. Results showed that scenario 3 was the closest to achieving the fundamental objectives according to the decision criteria. It was concluded that the DM framework showed that the use of holistic environmental information and preferential information for multiple objectives can be integrated into a framework that openly and consistently evaluates a set of alternative scenarios. 31 refs., 7 tabs., 4 figs.

  1. A Novel Multiperson Game Approach for Linguistic Multicriteria Decision Making Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-San Lin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Game theory is considered as an efficient framework in dealing with decision making problems for two players in the competitive environment. In general, the evaluation values of payoffs matrix are expressed by crisp values in a game model. However, many uncertainties and vagueness should be considered due to the qualitative criteria and the subjective judgment of decision makers in the decision making process. The aim of this study is to develop an effective methodology for solving the payoffs matrix with linguistic variables by multiple decision makers in a game model. Based on the linguistic variables, the decision makers can easily express their opinions with respect to criteria for each alternative. By using the linear programming method, we can find the optimal solution of a game matrix in accordance with the combination of strategies of each player effectively. In addition, the expected performance value (EPV index is defined in this paper to compare the competition ability of each player based on the optimal probability of each strategy combination. And then, numerical example will be implemented to illustrate the computation process of the proposed model. The conclusion and future research are discussed at the end of this paper.

  2. About the methodology of system synthesis of decision-makings and its procedures automation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. P. Oleynikov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The problem qualitative assessment of technologies and innovations, which cannot be solved without modern methods and decision support systems, is currently particularly relevant. The reason for this is the increasingly increasing amount of heterogeneous information, which should take into account the decision maker. Reduction of the allowable period of decision-making also has a signifi cant impact on this process. These reasons are refl ected in the problems of network-centric warfare, nuclear management, forecasting, and conceptual design. It actualizes the problem of the synthesis of new methods of decision-making that will effectively solve the problem of choice of alternatives in those problem areas where the application of existing methods of decision-making is unfounded or inadmissible. The complexity of the process of creation of new decision-making methods caused by the high degree of utilization of cognitive processes. In accordance with the system-wide development trends the designer in the process of synthesis of the decision-makings should take a system (or group of systems which implements certain cognitive operations. The first step towards the creation of such a group of systems is the development of methodology of the system synthesis of decision-makings.Materials and methods. The scope of research are approaches to the synthesis of systems, and in particular – the synthesis of decision-makings. On the basis of multidimensional analysis and generalization of approach the methodology was developed, which consists of the main stages - goal setting, goal achievement and variations of the target system. Within each of the stages a wide variation of operations is possible to be used, which applied depending on the available data, obtained from the analysis of the subject area. With the use of the methodology obtained a number ofdecision-making methods, and their creation was carried out without

  3. Market research on factors influencing women's preferences in investment decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Sharma, Abhishek.; Douglas, Tony.; Jaworski, Piotr.

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to gain knowledge on the factors that influence the investment decision making of women in Singapore. The research explores the fact that investment decision is being affected by the demographic, psychographic factors of the individuals. The individuals may be equal in all aspects but their investment decision varies with their own perception towards various investment plans. The research was conducted among 200 respondents through a survey so as to get an empirical findings o...

  4. Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision-making: Mapping the Value of Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonso, L.; Mukolwe, M. M.; Di Baldassarre, G.

    2016-02-01

    Floods are one of the most frequent and disruptive natural hazards that affect man. Annually, significant flood damage is documented worldwide. Flood mapping is a common preimpact flood hazard mitigation measure, for which advanced methods and tools (such as flood inundation models) are used to estimate potential flood extent maps that are used in spatial planning. However, these tools are affected, largely to an unknown degree, by both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Over the past few years, advances in uncertainty analysis with respect to flood inundation modeling show that it is appropriate to adopt Probabilistic Flood Maps (PFM) to account for uncertainty. However, the following question arises; how can probabilistic flood hazard information be incorporated into spatial planning? Thus, a consistent framework to incorporate PFMs into the decision-making is required. In this paper, a novel methodology based on Decision-Making under Uncertainty theories, in particular Value of Information (VOI) is proposed. Specifically, the methodology entails the use of a PFM to generate a VOI map, which highlights floodplain locations where additional information is valuable with respect to available floodplain management actions and their potential consequences. The methodology is illustrated with a simplified example and also applied to a real case study in the South of France, where a VOI map is analyzed on the basis of historical land use change decisions over a period of 26 years. Results show that uncertain flood hazard information encapsulated in PFMs can aid decision-making in floodplain planning.

  5. Analytical group decision making in natural resources: Methodology and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmoldt, D.L.; Peterson, D.L.

    2000-01-01

    Group decision making is becoming increasingly important in natural resource management and associated scientific applications, because multiple values are treated coincidentally in time and space, multiple resource specialists are needed, and multiple stakeholders must be included in the decision process. Decades of social science research on decision making in groups have provided insights into the impediments to effective group processes and on techniques that can be applied in a group context. Nevertheless, little integration and few applications of these results have occurred in resource management decision processes, where formal groups are integral, either directly or indirectly. A group decision-making methodology is introduced as an effective approach for temporary, formal groups (e.g., workshops). It combines the following three components: (1) brainstorming to generate ideas; (2) the analytic hierarchy process to produce judgments, manage conflict, enable consensus, and plan for implementation; and (3) a discussion template (straw document). Resulting numerical assessments of alternative decision priorities can be analyzed statistically to indicate where group member agreement occurs and where priority values are significantly different. An application of this group process to fire research program development in a workshop setting indicates that the process helps focus group deliberations; mitigates groupthink, nondecision, and social loafing pitfalls; encourages individual interaction; identifies irrational judgments; and provides a large amount of useful quantitative information about group preferences. This approach can help facilitate scientific assessments and other decision-making processes in resource management.

  6. Issues surrounding end-of-life decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tejwani V

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Vickram Tejwani,1,* YiFan Wu,1,* Sabrina Serrano,2 Luis Segura,2 Michael Bannon,3 Qi Qian1 1Department of Medicine, Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, 2Mayo Graduate School, 3Department of Trauma, Critical Care, and General Surgery, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Rochester, MN, USA *These authors contributed equally to this work Abstract: End-of-life decision-making is a complex process that can be extremely challenging. We describe a 42-year-old woman in an irreversible coma without an advance directive. The case serves to illustrate the complications that can occur in end-of-life decision-making and challenges in resolving difficult futility disputes. We review the role of advance directives in planning end-of-life care, the responsibility and historical performance of patient surrogates, the genesis of futility disputes, and approaches to resolving disputes. Keywords: end-of-life care, advance directive, surrogate, futility dispute, conflict resolution

  7. >From individual choice to group decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galam, Serge; Zucker, Jean-Daniel

    2000-12-01

    Some universal features are independent of both the social nature of the individuals making the decision and the nature of the decision itself. On this basis a simple magnet like model is built. Pair interactions are introduced to measure the degree of exchange among individuals while discussing. An external uniform field is included to account for a possible pressure from outside. Individual biases with respect to the issue at stake are also included using local random fields. A unique postulate of minimum conflict is assumed. The model is then solved with emphasis on its psycho-sociological implications. Counter-intuitive results are obtained. At this stage no new physical technicality is involved. Instead the full psycho-sociological implications of the model are drawn. Few cases are then detailed to enlight them. In addition, several numerical experiments based on our model are shown to give both an insight on the dynamics of the model and suggest further research directions.

  8. Making the case for evidence-based design in healthcare: a descriptive case study of organizational decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, Lorie K; Kazley, Abby Swanson; White, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to describe the organizational decision-making process used in the selection of evidence-based design (EBD) concepts, the criteria used to make these decisions, and the extent to which leadership style may have influenced the decision-making process. Five research questions were formulated to frame the direction of this study, including: (1) How did healthcare leaders learn of innovations in design? (2) How did healthcare leaders make decisions in the selection of healthcare design concepts? (3) What criteria did healthcare leaders use in the decision-making process? (4) How did healthcare leaders consider input from the staff in design decisions? and (5) To what extent did the leadership style of administrators affect the outcomes of the decision-making process? Current issues affecting healthcare in the community led the principal investigator's organization to undertake an ambitious facilities expansion project. As part of its planning process, the organization learned of EBD principles that seemingly had a positive impact on patient care and safety and staff working conditions. Although promising, a paucity of empirical research addressed the cost/benefit of incorporating many EBD concepts into one hospital setting, and there was no research that articulated the organizational decision-making process used by healthcare administrators when considering the use of EBD in expansion projects. A mixed-method, descriptive, qualitative, single-case study and quantitative design were used to address the five research questions. The Systems Research Organizing Model provided the theoretical framework. A variety of data collection methods was used, including interviews of key respondents, the review of documentary evidence, and the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire. A participatory process was used throughout the design decision phases, involving staff at all levels of the organization. The Internet and architects facilitated learning about

  9. Incorporating ecosystem function concept in environmental planning and decision making by means of multi-criteria evaluation: the case-study of Kalloni, Lesbos, Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oikonomou, Vera; Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G; Troumbis, Andreas Y

    2011-01-01

    Nature provides life-support services which do not merely constitute the basis for ecosystem integrity but also benefit human societies. The importance of such multiple outputs is often ignored or underestimated in environmental planning and decision making. The economic valuation of ecosystem functions or services has been widely used to make these benefits economically visible and thus address this deficiency. Alternatively, the relative importance of the components of ecosystem value can be identified and compared by means of multi-criteria evaluation. Hereupon, this article proposes a conceptual framework that couples ecosystem function analysis, multi criteria evaluation and social research methodologies for introducing an ecosystem function-based planning and management approach. The framework consists of five steps providing the structure of a participative decision making process which is then tested and ratified, by applying the discrete multi-criteria method NAIADE, in the Kalloni Natura 2000 site, on Lesbos, Greece. Three scenarios were developed and evaluated with regard to their impacts on the different types of ecosystem functions and the social actors' value judgements. A conflict analysis permitted the better elaboration of the different views, outlining the coalitions formed in the local community and shaping the way towards reaching a consensus.

  10. Optimal Modeling of Wireless LANs: A Decision-Making Multiobjective Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomás de Jesús Mateo Sanguino

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Communication infrastructure planning is a critical design task that typically requires handling complex concepts on networking aimed at optimizing performance and resources, thus demanding high analytical and problem-solving skills to engineers. To reduce this gap, this paper describes an optimization algorithm—based on evolutionary strategy—created as an aid for decision-making prior to the real deployment of wireless LANs. The developed algorithm allows automating the design process, traditionally handmade by network technicians, in order to save time and cost by improving the WLAN arrangement. To this end, we implemented a multiobjective genetic algorithm (MOGA with the purpose of meeting two simultaneous design objectives, namely, to minimize the number of APs while maximizing the coverage signal over a whole planning area. Such approach provides efficient and scalable solutions closer to the best network design, so that we integrated the developed algorithm into an engineering tool with the goal of modelling the behavior of WLANs in ICT infrastructures. Called WiFiSim, it allows the investigation of various complex issues concerning the design of IEEE 802.11-based WLANs, thereby facilitating design of the study and design and optimal deployment of wireless LANs through complete modelling software. As a result, we comparatively evaluated three target applications considering small, medium, and large scenarios with a previous approach developed, a monoobjective genetic algorithm.

  11. HOSPITAL SITE SELECTION USING TWO-STAGE FUZZY MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Soltani

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Site selection for sitting of urban activities/facilities is one of the crucial policy-related decisions taken by urban planners and policy makers. The process of site selection is inherently complicated. A careless site imposes exorbitant costs on city budget and damages the environment inevitably. Nowadays, multi-attributes decision making approaches are suggested to use to improve precision of decision making and reduce surplus side effects. Two well-known techniques, analytical hierarchal process and analytical network process are among multi-criteria decision making systems which can easily be consistent with both quantitative and qualitative criteria. These are also developed to be fuzzy analytical hierarchal process and fuzzy analytical network process systems which are capable of accommodating inherent uncertainty and vagueness in multi-criteria decision-making. This paper reports the process and results of a hospital site selection within the Region 5 of Shiraz metropolitan area, Iran using integrated fuzzy analytical network process systems with Geographic Information System (GIS. The weights of the alternatives were calculated using fuzzy analytical network process. Then a sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the elasticity of a decision in regards to different criteria. This study contributes to planning practice by suggesting a more comprehensive decision making tool for site selection.

  12. HOSPITAL SITE SELECTION USING TWO-STAGE FUZZY MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Soltani

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Site selection for sitting of urban activities/facilities is one of the crucial policy-related decisions taken by urban planners and policy makers. The process of site selection is inherently complicated. A careless site imposes exorbitant costs on city budget and damages the environment inevitably. Nowadays, multi-attributes decision making approaches are suggested to use to improve precision of decision making and reduce surplus side effects. Two well-known techniques, analytical hierarchal process and analytical network process are among multi-criteria decision making systems which can easily be consistent with both quantitative and qualitative criteria. These are also developed to be fuzzy analytical hierarchal process and fuzzy analytical network process systems which are capable of accommodating inherent uncertainty and vagueness in multi-criteria decision-making. This paper reports the process and results of a hospital site selection within the Region 5 of Shiraz metropolitan area, Iran using integrated fuzzy analytical network process systems with Geographic Information System (GIS. The weights of the alternatives were calculated using fuzzy analytical network process. Then a sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the elasticity of a decision in regards to different criteria. This study contributes to planning practice by suggesting a more comprehensive decision making tool for site selection.

  13. An intelligent, knowledge-based multiple criteria decision making advisor for systems design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yongchang

    In systems engineering, design and operation of systems are two main problems which always attract researcher's attentions. The accomplishment of activities in these problems often requires proper decisions to be made so that the desired goal can be achieved, thus, decision making needs to be carefully fulfilled in the design and operation of systems. Design is a decision making process which permeates through out the design process, and is at the core of all design activities. In modern aircraft design, more and more attention is paid to the conceptual and preliminary design phases so as to increase the odds of choosing a design that will ultimately be successful at the completion of the design process, therefore, decisions made during these early design stages play a critical role in determining the success of a design. Since aerospace systems are complex systems with interacting disciplines and technologies, the Decision Makers (DMs) dealing with such design problems are involved in balancing the multiple, potentially conflicting attributes/criteria, transforming a large amount of customer supplied guidelines into a solidly defined set of requirement definitions. Thus, one could state with confidence that modern aerospace system design is a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) process. A variety of existing decision making methods are available to deal with this type of decision problems. The selection of the most appropriate decision making method is of particular importance since inappropriate decision methods are likely causes of misleading engineering design decisions. With no sufficient knowledge about each of the methods, it is usually difficult for the DMs to find an appropriate analytical model capable of solving their problems. In addition, with the complexity of the decision problem and the demand for more capable methods increasing, new decision making methods are emerging with time. These various methods exacerbate the difficulty of the selection

  14. Electroencephalogy (EEG) Feedback in Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-26

    Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) Feedback In Decision- Making The goal of this project is to investigate whether Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) can provide useful...feedback when training rapid decision-making. More specifically, EEG will allow us to provide online feedback about the neural decision processes...Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) Feedback In Decision-Making Report Title The goal of this project is to investigate whether Electroencephalogy ( EEG ) can provide useful

  15. GROUPS DECISION MAKING WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca Stan

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In a highly global market, organizations that have the ability to analyze and rapidly respond to the constantly changing marketplace will have the greatest chance of remaining competitive and profitable. Group decision making is the process of arriving at a judgment based upon the feedback of multiple individuals. Due to the importance of the group decision making process, decision making models can be used to establish a systematic means of developing effective group decision making. Once a decision has been made, the members of the group should be willing to accept it and support its implementations.

  16. Decision-making capacity should not be decisive in emergencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbeling, Dieneke

    2014-05-01

    Examples of patients with anorexia nervosa, depression or borderline personality disorder who have decision-making capacity as currently operationalized, but refuse treatment, are discussed. It appears counterintuitive to respect their treatment refusal because their wish seems to be fuelled by their illness and the consequences of their refusal of treatment are severe. Some proposed solutions have focused on broadening the criteria for decision-making capacity, either in general or for specific patient groups, but these adjustments might discriminate against particular groups of patients and render the process less transparent. Other solutions focus on preferences expressed when patients are not ill, but this information is often not available. The reason for such difficulties with assessing decision-making capacity is that the underlying psychological processes of normal decision-making are not well known and one cannot differentiate between unwise decisions caused by an illness or other factors. The proposed alternative, set out in this paper, is to allow compulsory treatment of patients with decision-making capacity in cases of an emergency, if the refusal is potentially life threatening, but only for a time-limited period. The argument is also made for investigating hindsight agreement, in particular after compulsory measures.

  17. Applying ant colony optimization metaheuristic to solve forest transportation planning problems with side constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marco A. Contreras; Woodam Chung; Greg Jones

    2008-01-01

    Forest transportation planning problems (FTPP) have evolved from considering only the financial aspects of timber management to more holistic problems that also consider the environmental impacts of roads. These additional requirements have introduced side constraints, making FTPP larger and more complex. Mixed-integer programming (MIP) has been used to solve FTPP, but...

  18. Judgment and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischhoff, Baruch

    2010-09-01

    The study of judgment and decision making entails three interrelated forms of research: (1) normative analysis, identifying the best courses of action, given decision makers' values; (2) descriptive studies, examining actual behavior in terms comparable to the normative analyses; and (3) prescriptive interventions, helping individuals to make better choices, bridging the gap between the normative ideal and the descriptive reality. The research is grounded in analytical foundations shared by economics, psychology, philosophy, and management science. Those foundations provide a framework for accommodating affective and social factors that shape and complement the cognitive processes of decision making. The decision sciences have grown through applications requiring collaboration with subject matter experts, familiar with the substance of the choices and the opportunities for interventions. Over the past half century, the field has shifted its emphasis from predicting choices, which can be successful without theoretical insight, to understanding the processes shaping them. Those processes are often revealed through biases that suggest non-normative processes. The practical importance of these biases depends on the sensitivity of specific decisions and the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, the field offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. An Analysis of the Associations among Cognitive Impulsiveness, Reasoning Process, and Rational Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana P. G. Jelihovschi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve problems. For this purpose, we apply two measures of impulsivity: the self-report Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11 and the performance based Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT. Moreover, we evaluate participants' reasoning processes employed to answer CRT questions based on the calculation expressions, data organization, and erasures they made while answering the CRT (note that we utilized the instruments using pen and paper. These reasoning processes are related to the role of executive functions in decision making, and its relationship with impulsiveness. The sample consists of 191 adults, who were either professionals or undergraduate students from the fields of business, management, or accounting. The results show that cognitive impulsiveness may negatively affect decision making, and that those who presented the calculation to answer the CRT questions made better decisions. Moreover, there was no difference in the strategies used by impulsive vs. nonimpulsive participants during decision making. Finally, people who inhibited their immediate answers to CRT questions performed better during decision making.

  20. An Analysis of the Associations among Cognitive Impulsiveness, Reasoning Process, and Rational Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jelihovschi, Ana P. G.; Cardoso, Ricardo L.; Linhares, Alexandre

    2018-01-01

    Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve problems. For this purpose, we apply two measures of impulsivity: the self-report Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11) and the performance based Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). Moreover, we evaluate participants' reasoning processes employed to answer CRT questions based on the calculation expressions, data organization, and erasures they made while answering the CRT (note that we utilized the instruments using pen and paper). These reasoning processes are related to the role of executive functions in decision making, and its relationship with impulsiveness. The sample consists of 191 adults, who were either professionals or undergraduate students from the fields of business, management, or accounting. The results show that cognitive impulsiveness may negatively affect decision making, and that those who presented the calculation to answer the CRT questions made better decisions. Moreover, there was no difference in the strategies used by impulsive vs. nonimpulsive participants during decision making. Finally, people who inhibited their immediate answers to CRT questions performed better during decision making. PMID:29375440

  1. Understanding dynamics of strategic decision-making in venture creation: a process study of effectuation and causation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reymen, I.M.M.J.; Andries, P.; Berends, J.J.; Mauer, R.; Stephan, U.; van Burg, J.C.

    2015-01-01

    This study draws upon effectuation and causation as examples of planning-based and flexible decision-making logics and investigates dynamics in the use of both logics. The study applies a longitudinal process research approach to investigate strategic decision making in new venture creation over

  2. Adaptive management and environmental decision making. A case study application to water use planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, Robin; Failing, Lee; Higgins, Paul

    2006-01-01

    Adaptive management (AM) techniques are one of the principal tools proposed by environmental decision makers to provide flexible and responsive management approaches over time. However, the record of successful applications is surprisingly small. We believe that this in part reflects the lack of an intuitively plausible framework for evaluating AM initiatives. This paper outlines such a framework, based on the insights of decision analysis, for evaluating the use of AM as a technique to improve environmental management decisions. British Columbia's Water Use Plan (WUP) process, which has developed operating plans for more than 20 major hydroelectric facilities, is introduced as a case-study example. The discussion emphasizes that decisions to adopt adaptive management strategies involve judgments concerning tradeoffs across a variety of economic, environmental, and social objectives. As a result, adaptive management initiatives need to be carefully evaluated based on their merits relative to other alternatives. Within an AM framework, alternative experimental designs should be evaluated because the design of a preferred experiment involves choices among different levels of investment, the quality of available and desired future information, and different ecological, economic, and social risks. (author)

  3. Toward a Psychology of Surrogate Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunney, Richard J; Ziegler, Fenja V

    2015-11-01

    In everyday life, many of the decisions that we make are made on behalf of other people. A growing body of research suggests that we often, but not always, make different decisions on behalf of other people than the other person would choose. This is problematic in the practical case of legally designated surrogate decision makers, who may not meet the substituted judgment standard. Here, we review evidence from studies of surrogate decision making and examine the extent to which surrogate decision making accurately predicts the recipient's wishes, or if it is an incomplete or distorted application of the surrogate's own decision-making processes. We find no existing domain-general model of surrogate decision making. We propose a framework by which surrogate decision making can be assessed and a novel domain-general theory as a unifying explanatory concept for surrogate decisions. © The Author(s) 2015.

  4. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  5. Make or buy decision considering uncertainty based on fuzzy logic using simulation and multiple criteria decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohtashami

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision making on making/buying problem has always been a challenge to decision makers. In this paper a methodology has been proposed to resolve this challenge. This methodology is capable of evaluating making/buying decision making under uncertainty. For uncertainty, the fuzzy logic and simulation approaches have been used. The proposed methodology can be applied to parts with multi stage manufacturing processes and different suppliers. Therefore this methodology provides a scale for decision making from full outsourcing to full manufacturing and with selecting appropriate supplier.

  6. Decision-making on reverse logistics in the construction industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanwadee Chinda

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available With the growing competition, many construction organizations attempt to improve their productivity, quality, and efficiency. Construction waste management, by means of reverse logistics, becomes a key issue to improve the productivity, and raise the company’s green image. In this study, four reverse logistics methods-direct reuse, remanufacturing, recycling, and landfill-are considered to manage construction and demolition (C&D waste. Two factors (economic and site-specific with their 15 sub-factors affecting the decisions to implement the reverse logistics are examined. The hierarchy model of reverse logistics decisions, developed through the analytic hierarchy process, reveal the importance of the economic factor over the site-specific factor. It is suggested that the transportation cost, the processing cost, the specific sorting technology, and the limited project time must be first considered before making decisions on reverse logistics plans. The construction company can utilize the developed hierarchy model to decide on the most appropriate reverse logistics plan to achieve the best benefits.

  7. Neural substrates of decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broche-Pérez, Y; Herrera Jiménez, L F; Omar-Martínez, E

    2016-06-01

    Decision-making is the process of selecting a course of action from among 2 or more alternatives by considering the potential outcomes of selecting each option and estimating its consequences in the short, medium and long term. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) has traditionally been considered the key neural structure in decision-making process. However, new studies support the hypothesis that describes a complex neural network including both cortical and subcortical structures. The aim of this review is to summarise evidence on the anatomical structures underlying the decision-making process, considering new findings that support the existence of a complex neural network that gives rise to this complex neuropsychological process. Current evidence shows that the cortical structures involved in decision-making include the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). This process is assisted by subcortical structures including the amygdala, thalamus, and cerebellum. Findings to date show that both cortical and subcortical brain regions contribute to the decision-making process. The neural basis of decision-making is a complex neural network of cortico-cortical and cortico-subcortical connections which includes subareas of the PFC, limbic structures, and the cerebellum. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. Computational Complexity and Human Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossaerts, Peter; Murawski, Carsten

    2017-12-01

    The rationality principle postulates that decision-makers always choose the best action available to them. It underlies most modern theories of decision-making. The principle does not take into account the difficulty of finding the best option. Here, we propose that computational complexity theory (CCT) provides a framework for defining and quantifying the difficulty of decisions. We review evidence showing that human decision-making is affected by computational complexity. Building on this evidence, we argue that most models of decision-making, and metacognition, are intractable from a computational perspective. To be plausible, future theories of decision-making will need to take into account both the resources required for implementing the computations implied by the theory, and the resource constraints imposed on the decision-maker by biology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Nuclear emergency response planning based on participatory decision analytic approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.

    2004-10-01

    This work was undertaken in order to develop methods and techniques for evaluating systematically and comprehensively protective action strategies in the case of a nuclear or radiation emergency. This was done in a way that the concerns and issues of all key players related to decisions on protective actions could be aggregated into decision- making transparently and in an equal manner. An approach called facilitated workshop, based on the theory of Decision Analysis, was tailored and tested in the planning of actions to be taken. The work builds on case studies in which it was assumed that a hypothetical accident in a nuclear power plant had led to a release of considerable amounts of radionuclides and therefore different types of protective actions should be considered. Altogether six workshops were organised in which all key players were represented, i.e., the authorities, expert organisations, industry and agricultural producers. The participants were those responsible for preparing advice or presenting matters for those responsible for the formal decision-making. Many preparatory meetings were held with various experts to prepare information for the workshops. It was considered essential that the set-up strictly follow the decision- making process to which the key players are accustomed. Key players or stakeholders comprise responsible administrators and organisations, politicians as well as representatives of the citizens affected and other persons who will and are likely to take part in decision-making in nuclear emergencies. The realistic nature and the disciplined process of a facilitated workshop and commitment to decision-making yielded up insight in many radiation protection issues. The objectives and attributes which are considered in a decision on protective actions were discussed in many occasions and were defined for different accident scenario to come. In the workshops intervention levels were derived according justification and optimisation

  10. Changing Times, Complex Decisions: Presidential Values and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…

  11. Multi-disciplinary decision making in general practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Ann; Murphy, Aileen; Bradley, Colin

    2018-04-09

    Purpose Internationally, healthcare systems are moving towards delivering care in an integrated manner which advocates a multi-disciplinary approach to decision making. Such an approach is formally encouraged in the management of Atrial Fibrillation patients through the European Society of Cardiology guidelines. Since the emergence of new oral anticoagulants switching between oral anticoagulants (OACs) has become prevalent. This case study considers the role of multi-disciplinary decision making, given the complex nature of the agents. The purpose of this paper is to explore Irish General Practitioners' (GPs) experience of switching between all OACs for Arial Fibrillation (AF) patients; prevalence of multi-disciplinary decision making in OAC switching decisions and seeks to determine the GP characteristics that appear to influence the likelihood of multi-disciplinary decision making. Design/methodology/approach A probit model is used to determine the factors influencing multi-disciplinary decision making and a multinomial logit is used to examine the factors influencing who is involved in the multi-disciplinary decisions. Findings Results reveal that while some multi-disciplinary decision-making is occurring (64 per cent), it is not standard practice despite international guidelines on integrated care. Moreover, there is a lack of patient participation in the decision-making process. Female GPs and GPs who have initiated prescriptions for OACs are more likely to engage in multi-disciplinary decision-making surrounding switching OACs amongst AF patients. GPs with training practices were less likely to engage with cardiac consultants and those in urban areas were more likely to engage with other (non-cardiac) consultants. Originality/value For optimal decision making under uncertainty multi-disciplinary decision-making is needed to make a more informed judgement and to improve treatment decisions and reduce the opportunity cost of making the wrong decision.

  12. Improving rural electricity system planning: An agent-based model for stakeholder engagement and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfaro, Jose F.; Miller, Shelie; Johnson, Jeremiah X.; Riolo, Rick R.

    2017-01-01

    Energy planners in regions with low rates of electrification face complex and high-risk challenges in selecting appropriate generating technologies and grid centralization. To better inform such processes, we present an Agent-Based Model (ABM) that facilitates engagement with stakeholders. This approach evaluates long-term plans using the cost of delivered electricity, resource mix, jobs and economic stimulus created within communities, and decentralized generation mix of the system, with results provided in a spatially-resolved format. This approach complements existing electricity planning methods (e.g., Integrated Resource Planning) by offering novel evaluation criteria based on typical stakeholder preferences. We demonstrate the utility of this approach with a case study based on a “blank-slate” scenario, which begins without generation or transmission infrastructure, for the long-term rural renewable energy plans of Liberia, West Africa. We consider five electrification strategies: prioritizing larger populations, deploying large resources, creating jobs, providing economic stimulus, and step-wise cost minimization. Through the case study we demonstrate how this approach can be used to engage stakeholders, supplement more established energy planning tools, and illustrate the effects of stakeholder decisions and preferences on the performance of the system. - Highlights: • An Agent Based Model, BABSTER, for electrification planning is presented. • BABSTER provides a highly engaging spatially resolved interface. • Allows flexible investigation of decision strategies with real-world incentives. • We show that decision strategies directly impact centralization and resource choice. • It is illustrated through the case study of Liberia, West Africa.

  13. Equity trade-offs in conservation decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Elizabeth A; Bennett, Nathan J; Ives, Christopher D; Friedman, Rachel; Davis, Katrina J; Archibald, Carla; Wilson, Kerrie A

    2018-04-01

    Conservation decisions increasingly involve multiple environmental and social objectives, which result in complex decision contexts with high potential for trade-offs. Improving social equity is one such objective that is often considered an enabler of successful outcomes and a virtuous ideal in itself. Despite its idealized importance in conservation policy, social equity is often highly simplified or ill-defined and is applied uncritically. What constitutes equitable outcomes and processes is highly normative and subject to ethical deliberation. Different ethical frameworks may lead to different conceptions of equity through alternative perspectives of what is good or right. This can lead to different and potentially conflicting equity objectives in practice. We promote a more transparent, nuanced, and pluralistic conceptualization of equity in conservation decision making that particularly recognizes where multidimensional equity objectives may conflict. To help identify and mitigate ethical conflicts and avoid cases of good intentions producing bad outcomes, we encourage a more analytical incorporation of equity into conservation decision making particularly during mechanistic integration of equity objectives. We recommend that in conservation planning motivations and objectives for equity be made explicit within the problem context, methods used to incorporate equity objectives be applied with respect to stated objectives, and, should objectives dictate, evaluation of equity outcomes and adaptation of strategies be employed during policy implementation. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  14. Decision making in urological surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abboudi, Hamid; Ahmed, Kamran; Normahani, Pasha; Abboudi, May; Kirby, Roger; Challacombe, Ben; Khan, Mohammed Shamim; Dasgupta, Prokar

    2012-06-01

    Non-technical skills are important behavioural aspects that a urologist must be fully competent at to minimise harm to patients. The majority of surgical errors are now known to be due to errors in judgment and decision making as opposed to the technical aspects of the craft. The authors reviewed the published literature regarding decision-making theory and in practice related to urology as well as the current tools available to assess decision-making skills. Limitations include limited number of studies, and the available studies are of low quality. Decision making is the psychological process of choosing between alternative courses of action. In the surgical environment, this can often be a complex balance of benefit and risk within a variable time frame and dynamic setting. In recent years, the emphasis of new surgical curriculums has shifted towards non-technical surgical skills; however, the assessment tools in place are far from objective, reliable and valid. Surgical simulators and video-assisted questionnaires are useful methods for appraisal of trainees. Well-designed, robust and validated tools need to be implemented in training and assessment of decision-making skills in urology. Patient safety can only be ensured when safe and effective decisions are made.

  15. Development and validation of a managerial decision making self-efficacy questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wim Myburgh

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: Self-efficacy beliefs, given their task-specific nature, are likely to influence managers’ perceived decision-making competence depending on fluctuations in their nature and strength as non-ability contributors. Research purpose: The present research describes the conceptualisation, design and measurement of managerial decision-making self-efficacy. Motivation for the study: The absence of a domain-specific measure of the decision-making self-efficacy of managers was the motivation for the development of the Managerial Decisionmaking Self-efficacy Questionnaire (MDMSEQ. Research approach, design and method: A cross-sectional study was conducted on a nonprobability convenience sample of managers from various organisations in South Africa. Statistical analysis focused on the construct validity and reliability of items through exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis to test the factorial validity of the measure. Main findings: The research offers confirmatory validation of the factorial structure of the MDMSEQ. The results of two studies involving 455 (Study 1, n = 193; Study 2, n = 292 experienced managers evidenced a multidimensional structure and demonstrated respectable subscale internal consistencies. Findings also demonstrated that the MDMSEQ shared little common variance with confidence and problem-solving self-efficacy beliefs. In addition, several model fit indices suggested a reasonable to good model fit for the measurement model. Practical/managerial implications: The findings have implications for practical applications in employment selection and development with regard to managerial decision-making. Absence of the assessment of self-efficacy beliefs may introduce systematic, non-performance related variance into managerial decision-making outcomes in spite of abilities that managers possess. Contribution/value-add: Research on the volition-undermining effect of self-efficacy beliefs has been remarkably prominent

  16. Moral and Ethical Decision Making: Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-08-08

    exploration and elaboration of both rational and intuitive decision making processes. In addition, emotions may also play an important role in...More specifically, it suggests that both rational and intuitive decision making processes are likely to play an important role in ethical decision ...and military literature related to ethical decision making more generally. Specifically, it suggests that both rational and intuitive decision making

  17. A Novel Group Decision-Making Method Based on Sensor Data and Fuzzy Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Yu-Ting; Zhang, Bai-Hai; Wang, Xiao-Yi; Jin, Xue-Bo; Xu, Ji-Ping; Su, Ting-Li; Wang, Zhao-Yang

    2016-10-28

    Algal bloom is a typical phenomenon of the eutrophication of rivers and lakes and makes the water dirty and smelly. It is a serious threat to water security and public health. Most scholars studying solutions for this pollution have studied the principles of remediation approaches, but few have studied the decision-making and selection of the approaches. Existing research uses simplex decision-making information which is highly subjective and uses little of the data from water quality sensors. To utilize these data and solve the rational decision-making problem, a novel group decision-making method is proposed using the sensor data with fuzzy evaluation information. Firstly, the optimal similarity aggregation model of group opinions is built based on the modified similarity measurement of Vague values. Secondly, the approaches' ability to improve the water quality indexes is expressed using Vague evaluation methods. Thirdly, the water quality sensor data are analyzed to match the features of the alternative approaches with grey relational degrees. This allows the best remediation approach to be selected to meet the current water status. Finally, the selection model is applied to the remediation of algal bloom in lakes. The results show this method's rationality and feasibility when using different data from different sources.

  18. A Novel Group Decision-Making Method Based on Sensor Data and Fuzzy Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Ting Bai

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Algal bloom is a typical phenomenon of the eutrophication of rivers and lakes and makes the water dirty and smelly. It is a serious threat to water security and public health. Most scholars studying solutions for this pollution have studied the principles of remediation approaches, but few have studied the decision-making and selection of the approaches. Existing research uses simplex decision-making information which is highly subjective and uses little of the data from water quality sensors. To utilize these data and solve the rational decision-making problem, a novel group decision-making method is proposed using the sensor data with fuzzy evaluation information. Firstly, the optimal similarity aggregation model of group opinions is built based on the modified similarity measurement of Vague values. Secondly, the approaches’ ability to improve the water quality indexes is expressed using Vague evaluation methods. Thirdly, the water quality sensor data are analyzed to match the features of the alternative approaches with grey relational degrees. This allows the best remediation approach to be selected to meet the current water status. Finally, the selection model is applied to the remediation of algal bloom in lakes. The results show this method’s rationality and feasibility when using different data from different sources.

  19. Stepwise Decision Making for Long-Term Radioactive Waste Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, Claudio; Vari, Anna

    2003-01-01

    Consideration is increasingly being given, in radioactive waste management (RWM), to concepts such as 'stepwise decision making' and 'adaptive staging' in which the public, and especially the local communities, are also meaningfully involved in the review and planning of developments. The key feature of these concepts is development by steps or stages that are reversible, within the limits of practicability and provided they meet the requirements of an acceptable safety case. Stepwise decisions are designed to provide reassurance that actions can be reversed if experience shows them to have adverse or unwanted effects. Stepwise decision making has thus come to the fore as being especially important for making progress for radioactive waste management in a manner which is acceptable to large sectors of society. Despite its early identification within the RWM community as an important means for reaching decision in which there is broad-based confidence, stepwise decision making has not been widely debated. Accepted guiding principles of any such process have not yet been formulated, its roots in empirical social science research have not been fully reviewed, nor the difficulties of its implementation analysed. This paper reviews the current developments regarding stepwise decision making in RWM with the aim to pinpoint where it stands, to highlight its societal dimension, to analyse its roots in social sciences, and to identify guiding principles and issues in implementation. It is observed that there is convergence between the approach taken by the practitioners of RWM and the indications received from field studies in social research, and that general guiding principles can be proposed at least as a basis for further discussion. A strong basis for dialogue across disciplines thus exists. General methodological issues are also identified. This paper was developed in the framework of the activities of the NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence, which is presented in a

  20. Command Decision-Making: Experience Counts

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wolgast, Kelly A

    2005-01-01

    Decision-making is the mainstay of military leadership and command. Due to the changed nature of the current military environment, military commanders can no longer rely solely on the traditional Military Decision-making Process (MDMP...

  1. [Cognitive errors in diagnostic decision making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gäbler, Martin

    2017-10-01

    Approximately 10-15% of our diagnostic decisions are faulty and may lead to unfavorable and dangerous outcomes, which could be avoided. These diagnostic errors are mainly caused by cognitive biases in the diagnostic reasoning process.Our medical diagnostic decision-making is based on intuitive "System 1" and analytical "System 2" diagnostic decision-making and can be deviated by unconscious cognitive biases.These deviations can be positively influenced on a systemic and an individual level. For the individual, metacognition (internal withdrawal from the decision-making process) and debiasing strategies, such as verification, falsification and rule out worst-case scenarios, can lead to improved diagnostic decisions making.

  2. Entrepreneurial Decision Making in High Tech Business Development: A Quasi-Experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groen, Arend J.; Kraaijenbrink, Jeroen

    2010-01-01

    Research has shown that differences in decision making processes may explain differences in entrepreneurial effectiveness. Particularly rational planning based processes have been set off against other processes such as effectuation, abduction, and bricolage. However, there is still little empirical

  3. Emotions, Mood and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Agnes Virlics

    2014-01-01

    Decisions are made according to a complex cognitive and emotional evaluation of the situation. The aim of the paper is to examine the effect of mood on risky investment decision making by using a mood induction procedure. The paper investigates how happy and sad mood affects risky investment decision making and whether there is a difference between the perception of fix investments and monetary investments. The analysis has been conducted focusing on individual investment decisions. Data for ...

  4. Planning for outdoor play: Government and family decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterman, Julia J; Naughton, Geraldine A; Bundy, Anita C; Froude, Elspeth; Villeneuve, Michelle A

    2018-03-08

    Despite indisputable developmental benefits of outdoor play, children with disabilities can experience play inequity. Play decisions are multifactorial; influenced by children's skills and their familial and community environments. Government agencies have responsibilities for equity and inclusion of people with disabilities; including in play. This multiple-perspective case study aimed to understand outdoor play decision-making for children with disabilities from the perspectives and interactions of: local government and families of primary school-aged children with disabilities. Five mothers, four local government employees, and two not-for-profit organization representatives participated in semi-structured interviews. Inductive and iterative analyzes involved first understanding perspectives of individuals, then stakeholders (local government and families), and finally similarities and differences through cross-case analysis. Local government focused more on physical access, than social inclusion. Local government met only minimal requirements and had little engagement with families. This resulted in poor understanding and action around family needs and preferences when designing public outdoor play spaces. To increase meaningful choice and participation in outdoor play, government understanding of family values and agency around engagement with local government needs to improve. Supporting familial collective capabilities requires understanding interactions between individuals, play, disability, and outdoor play environments.

  5. Adolescent Sexual Decision-Making: An Integrative Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulton, Linda J.

    2001-10-03

    PURPOSE: The purpose of this integrative review was to summarize the present literature to identify factors associated with adolescent sexual decision-making. Thirty-eight salient research studies were selected as a basis of this review from the databases of Medline, CINAHL, and Psychinfo using the Cooper methodology. CONCLUSIONS: Two categories of decision-making were identified: 1) The research on factors related to the decisions that adolescents make to become sexually active or to abstain from sexual activity; 2) The research on factors related to contraceptive decision-making. The most consistent findings were that the factors of gender differences, cognitive development, perception of benefits, parental influences, social influences, and sexual knowledge were important variables in the decision-making processes of adolescents. IMPLICATIONS: Practice implications for nursing suggest that clinicians should assess adolescent sexual decision-making in greater detail and address the social and psychological context in which sexual experiences occur. Nurses must be aware of the differences between adolescent and adult decision-making processes and incorporate knowledge of growth and development into intervention strategies. Moreover, to the degree that adolescent sexual decision-making proves to be less than rational, interventions designed to improve competent sexual decision-making are needed.

  6. A Large Group Decision Making Approach Based on TOPSIS Framework with Unknown Weights Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Yupeng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Large group decision making considering multiple attributes is imperative in many decision areas. The weights of the decision makers (DMs is difficult to obtain for the large number of DMs. To cope with this issue, an integrated multiple-attributes large group decision making framework is proposed in this article. The fuzziness and hesitation of the linguistic decision variables are described by interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets. The weights of the DMs are optimized by constructing a non-linear programming model, in which the original decision matrices are aggregated by using the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy weighted average operator. By solving the non-linear programming model with MATLAB®, the weights of the DMs and the fuzzy comprehensive decision matrix are determined. Then the weights of the criteria are calculated based on the information entropy theory. At last, the TOPSIS framework is employed to establish the decision process. The divergence between interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is calculated by interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy cross entropy. A real-world case study is constructed to elaborate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  7. Decision Making Styles: Classification System, Contextual Analysis and Validation of Classification System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Martin, L. B; Bandali, F; Lamoureux, T

    2006-01-01

    .... As part of the JCDS 21 TD work plan, it is necessary to gain an understanding of current scientific research on human decision making, individual differences, and the potential to identify consistent...

  8. Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.

  9. Cost account in agriculture with particular accordance to requirements of decision making process and controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Kondraszuk

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents cost account applicability in the agricultural companies regarding the general theory of economic and organisation of enterprises. The main focus was laid down to analyse the unit total cost account with variable costs and their applicability in three spheres: stock valuation and profit, requirements of planning and decision making processes and controlling. It was concluded that cost calculation at the level of agricultural enterprise should be an inherent element of integrated information system at the level of registry, planning, decision making and control.

  10. Intergroup conflict and rational decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín

    2014-01-01

    The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.

  11. Intergroup Conflict and Rational Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A.; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín

    2014-01-01

    The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict –associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)– has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making. PMID:25461384

  12. Intergroup conflict and rational decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicente Martínez-Tur

    Full Text Available The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.

  13. Decision-making styles and depressive symptomatology: Development of the Decision Styles Questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Leykin

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Difficulty making decisions is one of the symptoms of the depressive illness. Previous research suggests that depressed individuals may make decisions that differ from those made by the non-depressed, and that they use sub-optimal decision-making strategies. For this study we constructed an instrument that aims to measure a variety of decision-making styles as well as the respondent's view of him or herself as a decision-maker (decisional self-esteem. These styles and estimates of decisional self-esteem were then related to depressive symptoms. Depressive symptomatology correlated negatively with perception of self as a decision-maker. Those with higher depression severity scores characterized themselves as being more anxious about decisions, and more likely to procrastinate. They also reported using fewer productive decision-making strategies, depending more on other people for help with decisions, and relying less on their own intuitions when making decisions. Further research is needed to determine the extent to which these decision-making styles are antecedents to depressive symptomatology or are instead products of, or aspects of, the phenomenology associated with depression.

  14. 'My kidneys, my choice, decision aid': supporting shared decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortnum, Debbie; Smolonogov, Tatiana; Walker, Rachael; Kairaitis, Luke; Pugh, Debbie

    2015-06-01

    For patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are progressing to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) a decision of whether to undertake dialysis or conservative care is a critical component of the patient journey. Shared decision making for complex decisions such as this could be enhanced by a decision aid, a practice which is well utilised in other disciplines but limited for nephrology. A multidisciplinary team in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) utilised current decision-making theory and best practice to develop the 'My Kidneys, My Choice', a decision aid for the treatment of kidney disease. A patient-centred, five-sectioned tool is now complete and freely available to all ANZ units to support the ESKD education and shared decision-making process. Distribution and education have occurred across ANZ and evaluation of the decision aid in practice is in the first phase. Development of a new tool such as an ESKD decision aid requires vision, multidisciplinary input and ongoing implementation resources. This tool is being integrated into ANZ, ESKD education practice and is promoting the philosophy of shared decision making. © 2014 European Dialysis and Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.

  15. Planning and Problem Solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-10-01

    Artificial Intelig ~ence (Vol. III, edited by Paul R. Cohen and’ Edward A.. Feigenbaum)’, The chapter was written B’ Paul Cohen, with contributions... Artificial Intelligence (Vol. III, edited by Paul R. Cohen and EdWard A. Feigenbaum). The chapter was written by Paul R. Cohen, with contributions by Stephen...Wheevoats"EntermdI’ Planning and Problem ’Solving by Paul R. Cohen Chaptb-rXV-of Volumec III’of the Handbook of Artificial Intelligence edited by Paul R

  16. Argumentation and Multi-Agent Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Parsons, S.; Jennings, N. R.

    1998-01-01

    This paper summarises our on-going work on mixed- initiative decision making which extends both classical decision theory and a symbolic theory of decision making based on argumentation to a multi-agent domain.

  17. Optimization of decision making to avoid stochastically predicted air traffic conflicts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    В.М. Васильєв

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available  The method of decision-making optimization on planning an aircraft trajectory to avoid potential conflict with restricted minimal level of separation standard is proposed. Evaluation and monitoring the conflict probability are made using the probabilistic composite method.

  18. Comprehensible knowledge model creation for cancer treatment decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afzal, Muhammad; Hussain, Maqbool; Ali Khan, Wajahat; Ali, Taqdir; Lee, Sungyoung; Huh, Eui-Nam; Farooq Ahmad, Hafiz; Jamshed, Arif; Iqbal, Hassan; Irfan, Muhammad; Abbas Hydari, Manzar

    2017-03-01

    A wealth of clinical data exists in clinical documents in the form of electronic health records (EHRs). This data can be used for developing knowledge-based recommendation systems that can assist clinicians in clinical decision making and education. One of the big hurdles in developing such systems is the lack of automated mechanisms for knowledge acquisition to enable and educate clinicians in informed decision making. An automated knowledge acquisition methodology with a comprehensible knowledge model for cancer treatment (CKM-CT) is proposed. With the CKM-CT, clinical data are acquired automatically from documents. Quality of data is ensured by correcting errors and transforming various formats into a standard data format. Data preprocessing involves dimensionality reduction and missing value imputation. Predictive algorithm selection is performed on the basis of the ranking score of the weighted sum model. The knowledge builder prepares knowledge for knowledge-based services: clinical decisions and education support. Data is acquired from 13,788 head and neck cancer (HNC) documents for 3447 patients, including 1526 patients of the oral cavity site. In the data quality task, 160 staging values are corrected. In the preprocessing task, 20 attributes and 106 records are eliminated from the dataset. The Classification and Regression Trees (CRT) algorithm is selected and provides 69.0% classification accuracy in predicting HNC treatment plans, consisting of 11 decision paths that yield 11 decision rules. Our proposed methodology, CKM-CT, is helpful to find hidden knowledge in clinical documents. In CKM-CT, the prediction models are developed to assist and educate clinicians for informed decision making. The proposed methodology is generalizable to apply to data of other domains such as breast cancer with a similar objective to assist clinicians in decision making and education. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Distributed Cognition in Cancer Treatment Decision Making: An Application of the DECIDE Decision-Making Styles Typology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, Janice L; Krok-Schoen, Jessica L; Dailey, Phokeng M; Palmer-Wackerly, Angela L; Schoenberg, Nancy; Paskett, Electra D; Dignan, Mark

    2017-07-01

    Distributed cognition occurs when cognitive and affective schemas are shared between two or more people during interpersonal discussion. Although extant research focuses on distributed cognition in decision making between health care providers and patients, studies show that caregivers are also highly influential in the treatment decisions of patients. However, there are little empirical data describing how and when families exert influence. The current article addresses this gap by examining decisional support in the context of cancer randomized clinical trial (RCT) decision making. Data are drawn from in-depth interviews with rural, Appalachian cancer patients ( N = 46). Analysis of transcript data yielded empirical support for four distinct models of health decision making. The implications of these findings for developing interventions to improve the quality of treatment decision making and overall well-being are discussed.

  20. Nuclear regulatory decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de

    2011-01-01

    The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)

  1. A decision framework for coordinating bioterrorism planning: lessons from the BioNet program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manley, Dawn K; Bravata, Dena M

    2009-01-01

    Effective disaster preparedness requires coordination across multiple organizations. This article describes a detailed framework developed through the BioNet program to facilitate coordination of bioterrorism preparedness planning among military and civilian decision makers. The authors and colleagues conducted a series of semistructured interviews with civilian and military decision makers from public health, emergency management, hazardous material response, law enforcement, and military health in the San Diego area. Decision makers used a software tool that simulated a hypothetical anthrax attack, which allowed them to assess the effects of a variety of response actions (eg, issuing warnings to the public, establishing prophylaxis distribution centers) on performance metrics. From these interviews, the authors characterized the information sources, technologies, plans, and communication channels that would be used for bioterrorism planning and responses. The authors used influence diagram notation to describe the key bioterrorism response decisions, the probabilistic factors affecting these decisions, and the response outcomes. The authors present an overview of the response framework and provide a detailed assessment of two key phases of the decision-making process: (1) pre-event planning and investment and (2) incident characterization and initial responsive measures. The framework enables planners to articulate current conditions; identify gaps in existing policies, technologies, information resources, and relationships with other response organizations; and explore the implications of potential system enhancements. Use of this framework could help decision makers execute a locally coordinated response by identifying the critical cues of a potential bioterrorism event, the information needed to make effective response decisions, and the potential effects of various decision alternatives.

  2. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Schöbel

    Full Text Available People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

  3. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448

  4. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

  5. Making ethical choices: a comprehensive decision-making model for Canadian psychologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadjistavropoulos, T; Malloy, D C

    2000-05-01

    This paper proposes a theoretical augmentation of the seven-step decision-making model outlined in the Canadian Code of Ethics for Psychologists. We propose that teleological, deontological, and existential ethical perspectives should be taken into account in the decision-making process. We also consider the influence of individual, issue-specific, significant-other, situational, and external factors on ethical decision-making. This theoretical analysis demonstrates the richness and complexity of ethical decision-making.

  6. An analysis of medical decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lusted, L.B.

    1977-01-01

    Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

  7. The value of foresight: how prospection affects decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    Traditional theories of decision-making assume that utilities are based on the intrinsic value of outcomes; in turn, these values depend on associations between expected outcomes and the current motivational state of the decision-maker. This view disregards the fact that humans (and possibly other animals) have prospection abilities, which permit anticipating future mental processes and motivational and emotional states. For instance, we can evaluate future outcomes in light of the motivational state we expect to have when the outcome is collected, not (only) when we make a decision. Consequently, we can plan for the future and choose to store food to be consumed when we expect to be hungry, not immediately. Furthermore, similarly to any expected outcome, we can assign a value to our anticipated mental processes and emotions. It has been reported that (in some circumstances) human subjects prefer to receive an unavoidable punishment immediately, probably because they are anticipating the dread associated with the time spent waiting for the punishment. This article offers a formal framework to guide neuroeconomic research on how prospection affects decision-making. The model has two characteristics. First, it uses model-based Bayesian inference to describe anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes. Second, the utility-maximization process considers these anticipations in two ways: to evaluate outcomes (e.g., the pleasure of eating a pie is evaluated differently at the beginning of a dinner, when one is hungry, and at the end of the dinner, when one is satiated), and as outcomes having a value themselves (e.g., the case of dread as a cost of waiting for punishment). By explicitly accounting for the relationship between prospection and value, our model provides a framework to reconcile the utility-maximization approach with psychological phenomena such as planning for the future and dread.

  8. The value of foresight: how prospection affects decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni ePezzulo

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Traditional theories of decision-making assume that utilities are based on the intrinsic value of outcomes; in turn, these values depend on associations between expected outcomes and the current motivational state of the decision-maker. This view disregards the fact that humans (and possibly other animals have prospection abilities, which permit anticipating future mental processes and motivational and emotional states. For instance, we can evaluate future outcomes in light of the motivational state we expect to have when the outcome is collected, not (only when we make a decision. Consequently, we can plan for the future and choose to store food to be consumed when we expect to be hungrier, not immediately. Furthermore, similarly to any expected outcome, we can assign a a value to our anticipated mental processes and emotions. It has been reported that (in some circumstances human subjects prefer to receive an unavoidable punishment immediately, probably because they are anticipating the dread associated with the time spent waiting for the punishment. This article offers a formal framework to guide neuroeconomic research on how prospection affects decision-making. The model has two characteristics. First, it uses model-based Bayesian inference to describe anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes. Second, the utility maximization process considers these anticipations in two ways: to evaluate outcomes (e.g., the pleasure of eating a pie is evaluated differently at the beginning of a dinner, when one is hungry, and at the end of the dinner, when one is satiated, and as outcomes having a value themselves (e.g., the case of dread as a cost of waiting for punishment. By explicitly accounting for the relationship between prospection and value, our model provides a framework to reconcile the utility-maximization approach with psychological phenomena such as planning for the future and dread.

  9. Decision making regarding multifetal reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maifeld, Michelle; Hahn, Sandra; Titler, Marita G; Mullen, Meredithe

    2003-01-01

    To identify salient variables that influence decision making regarding multifetal reduction (MFR) and describe their effect on individuals over time. Prospective, exploratory, descriptive design, using qualitative and quantitative methods. Midwestern tertiary care center. A convenience sample of 11 consecutive consenting couples with triplet or higher-order pregnancies who elected to undergo MFR. Semistructured audiotaped telephone interviews at three points: (a) 2 weeks postreduction, (b) 6 weeks postpartum, and (c) 6 months postpartum; a demographic and marital adjustment questionnaire. Themes identified by content analysis and compared via matrix analysis between males and females and at three points in time; trends in marital adjustment. Dominant variables influencing MFR decision making were risks associated with higher-order pregnancies and preservation of infants' and mothers' health. Most participants identified emotional issues, including moral and ethical dilemmas, as the most difficult aspect of reduction. Over time, participants reported feeling more positive about their decision; nonetheless, negative feelings emerged progressively. Risk aversion favored MFR decision making. Yet, both making and living with the decision were emotionally difficult for this sample. Interventions are needed to assist couples with this decision and its consequences.

  10. Evaluation of sustainability indicators for decision-making in mining companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miletić Slavica

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of sustainability indicators in terms of their importance for decision making in mining companies (RTB Bor, RTB can significantly affect the steady economic growth and development of the country. In the paper are ranked sustainability indicators in terms of their importance by illustration of implementation of multicriteria decision making. The essence of the problem is to reduce the subjectivity in the mining companies (RTB Bor who are carriers of the economic development of the country. Evaluation of sustainability indicators of mining companies was carried out using the PROMETHEE methods for multi-criteria decision making. In this method the determination of criteria weights for ranking is done firstly, then the assessment of sustainability indicators and their complete ranking is performed. Based on the obtained results by PROMETHEE method, it is determined the most important sustainability indicators for decision-making, and that is an alternative A1 (economic indicators. The most influential criteria for a complete ranking of sustainability indicators is criteria C1 (increase the utilization of resources and C3 (environmental protection. The obtained result indicates to managers how the implementation of MCDM method should treat the indicators of sustainability during the planning and management process, all with aim to sustain mining companies (RTB Bor.

  11. Serotonin and decision making processes.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homberg, J.R.

    2012-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) is an important player in decision making. Serotonergic antidepressant, anxiolytic and antipsychotic drugs are extensively used in the treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impaired decision making, and exert both beneficial and harmful effects in patients.

  12. HUMAN-MACHINE INTERACTION IN SOLVING TASKS OF THE PLANNING DEPARTMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Alekseyevich Kucherov

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses issues of human-machine interaction in solving tasks of the planning department under severe resource restrictions using information technology. The negative factors influencing specialists of the planning department in solving their tasks under the given circumstances are shown. Specific features of designing the user interface in this subject area are noted. Directions to increase the efficiency of reaction of the planning department’s specialists to change the current situation by visual and sound notification of various events are marked. Various ways to develop user interface to generate a conflict-free plan under severe resource restrictions are considered. The variants of informative presentation of operational and statistical information to stakeholders are analyzed. These issues are discussed by the example of the planning department which solves the tasks of allocation of control facilities for spacecraft (a subset of satellite range scheduling problem,

  13. Make up your mind - How stress and sex affect decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koot, S.

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making refers to assessing costs and benefits of competing actions, with either a known outcome or an uncertain result. Decision-making depends on several abilities, such as behavioural flexibility and inhibiting risky responses. Several factors affect decision-making, causing differences

  14. What influences patient decision-making in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis multidisciplinary care? A study of patient perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogden, Anne; Greenfield, David; Nugus, Peter; Kiernan, Matthew C

    2012-01-01

    Patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are required to make decisions concerning quality of life and symptom management over the course of their disease. Clinicians perceive that patients' ability to engage in timely decision-making is extremely challenging. However, we lack patient perspectives on this issue. This study aimed to explore patient experiences of ALS, and to identify factors influencing their decision-making in the specialized multidisciplinary care of ALS. An exploratory study was conducted. Fourteen patients from two specialized ALS multidisciplinary clinics participated in semistructured interviews that were audio recorded and transcribed. Data were analyzed for emergent themes. Decision-making was influenced by three levels of factors, ie, structural, interactional, and personal. The structural factor was the decision-making environment of specialized multidisciplinary ALS clinics, which supported decision-making by providing patients with disease-specific information and specialized care planning. Interactional factors were the patient experiences of ALS, including patients' reaction to the diagnosis, response to deterioration, and engagement with the multidisciplinary ALS team. Personal factors were patients' personal philosophies, including their outlook on life, perceptions of control, and planning for the future. Patient approaches to decision-making reflected a focus on the present, rather than anticipating future progression of the disease and potential care needs. Decision-making for symptom management and quality of life in ALS care is enhanced when the patient's personal philosophy is supported by collaborative relationships between the patient and the multidisciplinary ALS team. Patients valued the support provided by the multidisciplinary team; however, their focus on living in the present diverged from the efforts of health professionals to prepare patients and their carers for the future. The challenge facing health

  15. Complex Decision Making Theory and Practice

    CERN Document Server

    Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan; Spector, J Michael

    2007-01-01

    The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV:...

  16. Neuroanatomical basis for recognition primed decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Darren

    2013-01-01

    Effective decision making under time constraints is often overlooked in medical decision making. The recognition primed decision making (RPDM) model was developed by Gary Klein based on previous recognized situations to develop a satisfactory solution to the current problem. Bayes Theorem is the most popular decision making model in medicine but is limited by the need for adequate time to consider all probabilities. Unlike other decision making models, there is a potential neurobiological basis for RPDM. This model has significant implication for health informatics and medical education.

  17. Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

    2013-06-01

    The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a

  18. Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, Byron K; Johnson, Fred A

    2013-01-01

    The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a

  19. Do Teachers Make Decisions Like Firefighters? Applying Naturalistic Decision-Making Methods to Teachers' In-Class Decision Making in Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jazby, Dan

    2014-01-01

    Research into human decision making (DM) processes from outside of education paint a different picture of DM than current DM models in education. This pilot study assesses the use of critical decision method (CDM)--developed from observations of firefighters' DM -- in the context of primary mathematics teachers' in-class DM. Preliminary results…

  20. Decision Making Under Uncertain Categorization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Ying-Fen Chen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Two experiments investigated how category information is used in decision making under uncertainty and whether the framing of category information influences how it is used. Subjects were presented with vignettes in which the categorization of a critical item was ambiguous and were asked to choose among a set of actions with the goal of attaining the desired outcome for the main character in the story. The normative decision making strategy was to base the decision on all possible categories; however, research on a related topic, category-based induction, has found that people often only consider a single category when making predictions when categorization is uncertain. These experiments found that subjects tend to consider multiple categories when making decisions, but do so both when it is and is not appropriate, suggesting that use of multiple categories is not driven by an understanding of what categories are and are not relevant to the decision. Similarly, although a framing manipulation increased the rate of multiple-category use, it did so in situations in which multiple-category use was and was not appropriate.