WorldWideScience

Sample records for solar storm events

  1. SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2012 JULY 23 EXTREME SOLAR STORM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Bei; Liu, Ying D.; Hu, Huidong; Wang, Rui; Yang, Zhongwei [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Luhmann, Janet G., E-mail: liuxying@spaceweather.ac.cn [Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2016-08-20

    We study the solar energetic particle (SEP) event associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme solar storm, for which Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and the spacecraft at L1 provide multi-point remote sensing and in situ observations. The extreme solar storm, with a superfast shock and extremely enhanced ejecta magnetic fields observed near 1 au at STEREO A , was caused by the combination of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Meanwhile, energetic particles were observed by STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft such as the Advanced Composition Explorer and SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory , suggesting a wide longitudinal spread of the particles at 1 au. Combining the SEP observations with in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements, we investigate the longitudinal distribution of the SEP event in connection with the associated shock and CMEs. Our results underscore the complex magnetic configuration of the inner heliosphere formed by solar eruptions. Examination of particle intensities, proton anisotropy distributions, element abundance ratios, magnetic connectivity, and spectra also gives important clues for particle acceleration, transport, and distribution.

  2. Solar storms; Tormentas solares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collaboration: Pereira Cuesta, S.; Pereira Pagan, B.

    2016-08-01

    Solar storms begin with an explosion, or solar flare, on the surface of the sun. The X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare reach the Earths orbit minutes later-travelling at light speed. The ionization of upper layers of our atmosphere could cause radio blackouts and satellite navigation errors (GPS). Soon after, a wave of energetic particles, electrons and protons accelerated by the explosion crosses the orbit of the Earth, and can cause real and significant damage. (Author)

  3. Solar noise storms

    CERN Document Server

    Elgaroy, E O

    2013-01-01

    Solar Noise Storms examines the properties and features of solar noise storm phenomenon. The book also presents some theories that can be used to gain a better understanding of the phenomenon. The coverage of the text includes topics that cover the features and behavior of noise storms, such as the observable features of noise storms; the relationship between noise storms and the observable features on the sun; and ordered behavior of storm bursts in the time-frequency plane. The book also covers the spectrum, polarization, and directivity of noise storms. The text will be of great use to astr

  4. Solar sources of interplanetary southward B/sub z/ events responsible for major magnetic storms (1978--1979)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, F.; Tsurutani, B.T.; Gonzalez, W.D.; Akasofu, S.I.; Smith, E.J.

    1989-01-01

    Tsurutani et al. [1988] analyzed the 10 intense interplanetary southward B/sub z/ events that led to major magnetic storms (Dst 3.0) are associated with prominence eruptions. For three of the five southward B/sub z/ events in which the driver gases are the causes of the intense southward field leading to magnetic storms, the photospheric fields of the solar sources have no dominant southward component, indicating the driver gas fields do not always result from a simple outward convection of solar magnetic fields. Finally we compare the solar events and their resulting interplanetary shocks and find that the standard solar parameters do not correlate with the strengths of the resulting shocks at 1 AU. The implications are discussed. copyright American Geophysical Union 1989

  5. NCDC Storm Events Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Data is provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) and contain statistics on personal injuries and damage estimates. Storm Data covers the United States of...

  6. Storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Keizo; Melrose, D.B.; Suzuki, S.

    1985-01-01

    At metre and decametre wavelengths long-lasting solar radio emission, consisting of thousands of short-lived spikes superimposed on a slowly varying continuum, is observed. This type of storm emission may continue for periods ranging from a few hours to several days; the long duration is one of the characteristics which distinguish storms from other types of solar radio emission. These events are called storms or noise storms by analogy with geomagnetic storms. (author)

  7. An operational integrated short-term warning solution for solar radiation storms: introducing the Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Sandberg, Ingmar; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Georgoulis, Manolis; Tziotziou, Kostas; Jiggens, Piers; Hilgers, Alain

    2015-04-01

    We present a novel integrated prediction system, of both solar flares and solar energetic particle (SEP) events, which is in place to provide short-term warnings for hazardous solar radiation storms. FORSPEF system provides forecasting of solar eruptive events, such as solar flares with a projection to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (occurrence and velocity) and the likelihood of occurrence of a SEP event. It also provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual solar flare and CME near real-time alerts, as well as SEP characteristics (peak flux, fluence, rise time, duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of solar flares relies on a morphological method which is based on the sophisticated derivation of the effective connected magnetic field strength (Beff) of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations and it utilizes analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events a new reductive statistical method has been implemented based on a newly constructed database of solar flares, CMEs and SEP events that covers a large time span from 1984-2013. The method is based on flare location (longitude), flare size (maximum soft X-ray intensity), and the occurrence (or not) of a CME. Warnings are issued for all > C1.0 soft X-ray flares. The warning time in the forecasting scheme extends to 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours while the respective warning time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and falls between 15-20 minutes. We discuss the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection and the operational set up. The dual approach in the development of FORPSEF (i.e. forecasting and nowcasting scheme) permits the refinement of predictions upon the availability of new data that characterize changes on the Sun and the interplanetary space, while the combined usage of solar flare and SEP forecasting methods upgrades FORSPEF to an integrated forecasting solution. This

  8. Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with Storm Sudden Commencements over One Year of Solar Maximum During Cycle 23: Propagation from the Sun to the Earth and Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocchialini, K.; Grison, B.; Menvielle, M.; Chambodut, A.; Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Fontaine, D.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Régnier, S.; Zouganelis, I.

    2018-05-01

    Taking the 32 storm sudden commencements (SSCs) listed by the International Service of Geomagnetic Indices (ISGI) of the Observatory de l'Ebre during 2002 (solar activity maximum in Cycle 23) as a starting point, we performed a multi-criterion analysis based on observations (propagation time, velocity comparisons, sense of the magnetic field rotation, radio waves) to associate them with solar sources, identified their effects in the interplanetary medium, and looked at the response of the terrestrial ionized and neutral environment. We find that 28 SSCs can be related to 44 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), 15 with a unique CME and 13 with a series of multiple CMEs, among which 19 (68%) involved halo CMEs. Twelve of the 19 fastest CMEs with speeds greater than 1000 km s-1 are halo CMEs. For the 44 CMEs, including 21 halo CMEs, the corresponding X-ray flare classes are: 3 X-class, 19 M-class, and 22 C-class flares. The probability for an SSC to occur is 75% if the CME is a halo CME. Among the 500, or even more, front-side, non-halo CMEs recorded in 2002, only 23 could be the source of an SSC, i.e. 5%. The complex interactions between two (or more) CMEs and the modification of their trajectories have been examined using joint white-light and multiple-wavelength radio observations. The detection of long-lasting type IV bursts observed at metric-hectometric wavelengths is a very useful criterion for the CME-SSC events association. The events associated with the most depressed Dst values are also associated with type IV radio bursts. The four SSCs associated with a single shock at L1 correspond to four radio events exhibiting characteristics different from type IV radio bursts. The solar-wind structures at L1 after the 32 SSCs are 12 magnetic clouds (MCs), 6 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) without an MC structure, 4 miscellaneous structures, which cannot unambiguously be classified as ICMEs, 5 corotating or stream interaction regions (CIRs/SIRs), one CIR

  9. RadWorks Storm Shelter Design for Solar Particle Event Shielding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Matthew A.; Cerro, Jeffrey; Clowdsley, Martha

    2013-01-01

    In order to enable long-duration human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit, the risks associated with exposure of astronaut crews to space radiation must be mitigated with practical and affordable solutions. The space radiation environment beyond the magnetosphere is primarily a combination of two types of radiation: galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). While mitigating GCR exposure remains an open issue, reducing astronaut exposure to SPEs is achievable through material shielding because they are made up primarily of medium-energy protons. In order to ensure astronaut safety for long durations beyond low-Earth orbit, SPE radiation exposure must be mitigated. However, the increasingly demanding spacecraft propulsive performance for these ambitious missions requires minimal mass and volume radiation shielding solutions which leverage available multi-functional habitat structures and logistics as much as possible. This paper describes the efforts of NASA's RadWorks Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Project to design minimal mass SPE radiation shelter concepts leveraging available resources. Discussion items include a description of the shelter trade space, the prioritization process used to identify the four primary shelter concepts chosen for maturation, a summary of each concept's design features, a description of the radiation analysis process, and an assessment of the parasitic mass of each concept.

  10. Interplanetary ions during an energetic storm particle event - The distribution function from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, J. T.; Asbridge, J. R.; Bame, S. J.; Feldman, W. C.; Zwickl, R. D.; Paschmann, G.; Sckopke, N.; Hynds, R. J.

    1981-01-01

    An ion velocity distribution function of the postshock phase of an energetic storm particle (ESP) event is obtained from data from the ISEE 2 and ISEE 3 experiments. The distribution function is roughly isotropic in the solar wind frame from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV. The ESP event studied (8/27/78) is superposed upon a more energetic particle event which was predominantly field-aligned and which was probably of solar origin. The observations suggest that the ESP population is accelerated directly out of the solar wind thermal population or its quiescent suprathermal tail by a stochastic process associated with shock wave disturbance. The acceleration mechanism is sufficiently efficient so that approximately 1% of the solar wind population is accelerated to suprathermal energies. These suprathermal particles have an energy density of approximately 290 eV cubic centimeters.

  11. Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with Storm Sudden Commencements over One Year of Solar Maximum during Cycle 23: Propagation and Effects from the Sun to the Earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocchialini, K.; Grison, B.; Menvielle, M.; Chambodut, A.; Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Fontaine, D.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Régnier, S.; Zouganelis, I.

    2017-12-01

    From the list of 32 SSCs over the year 2002, we performed a multi-criteria analysis based on propagation time, velocity comparison, sense of the magnetic field rotation, radio waves to associate them with solar sources, identify their causes in the interplanetary medium and then look at the response of the terrestrial ionized and neutral environment to them. The complex interactions between two (or more) CMEs and the modification in their trajectory have been examined using joint white light and multiple-wavelength radio observations. The structures at L_1 after the 32 SSCs are regarded as Magnetic Clouds (MCs), ICMEs without a MC structure, Miscellaneous structures, CIRs/SIRs, and shock-only events. In terms of geoeffectivity, generally CMEs with velocities at the Sun larger than 1000 km.s-1 have larger probabilities to trigger moderate or intense storms. The most geoeffective events are MCs, since 92% of them trigger moderate or intense storms. The geoeffective events trigger an increased and combined AKR and NTC wave activity in the magnetosphere, an enhanced convection in the ionosphere and a stronger response in the thermosphere.

  12. Interplanetary ions during an energetic storm particle event: The distribution function from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gosling, J.T.; Asbridge, J.R.; Bame, S.J.; Feldman, W.C.; Zwickl, R.D.; Paschmann, G.; Sckopke, N.; Hynds, R.J.

    1981-01-01

    Data from the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory/Max-Planck-Institut fast plasma experiment on Isee 2 have been combined with data from the European Space Agency/Imperial College/Space Research Laboratory low-energy proton experiment on Isee 3 to obtain for the first time an ion velocity distribution function f(v) extending from solar wind energies (-1 keV) to 1.6 MeV during the postshock phase of an energetic storm particle (ESP) event. This study reveals that f(v) of the ESP population is roughly isotropic in the solar wind frame from solar wind thermal energies out to 1.6 MeV. Emerging smoothly out of the solar wind thermal distribution, the ESP f(v) initially falls with increasing energy as E/sup -2.4/ in the solar wind frame. Above about 40 keV no single power law exponent adequately describes the energy dependence of f(v) in the solar wind frame. Above approx.200 keV in both the spacecraft frame and the solar wind frame, f(v) can be described by an exponential in speed (f(v)proportionale/sup -v/v//sub o/) with v/sub o/ = 1.05 x 10 8 cm s -1 . The ESP event studied (August 27, 1978) was superposed upon a more energetic particle event which was predominantly field-aligned and which was probably of solar origin. Our observations suggest that the ESP population is accelerated directly out of the solar wind thermal population or its quiescent suprathermal tail by a stochastic process associated with the shock wave disturbance. The acceleration mechanism is sufficiently efficient that approx.1% of the solar wind population is accelerated to suprathermal energies. These suprathermal particles have an energy density of approx.290 eV cm -3

  13. Nuclear magnetohydrodynamic EMP, solar storms, and substorms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabinowitz, M.; Meliopoulous, A.P.S.; Glytsis, E.N.

    1992-01-01

    In addition to a fast electromagnetic pulse (EMP), a high altitude nuclear burst produces a relatively slow magnetohydrodynamic EMP (MHD EMP), whose effects are like those from solar storm geomagnetically induced currents (SS-GIC). The MHD EMP electric field E approx-lt 10 - 1 V/m and lasts approx-lt 10 2 sec, whereas for solar storms E approx-gt 10 - 2 V/m and lasts approx-gt 10 3 sec. Although the solar storm electric field is lower than MHD EMP, the solar storm effects are generally greater due to their much longer duration. Substorms produce much smaller effects than SS-GIC, but occur much more frequently. This paper describes the physics of such geomagnetic disturbances and analyzes their effects

  14. Coronal mass ejections and disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters in relation with geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verma, P L; Singh, Puspraj; Singh, Preetam

    2014-01-01

    Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the drastic solar events in which huge amount of solar plasma materials are ejected into the heliosphere from the sun and are mainly responsible to generate large disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters and geomagnetic storms in geomagnetic field. We have studied geomagnetic storms, (Dst ≤-75 nT) observed during the period of 1997-2007 with Coronal Mass Ejections and disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters (solar wind temperature, velocity, density and interplanetary magnetic field) .We have inferred that most of the geomagnetic storms are associated with halo and partial halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).The association rate of halo and partial halo coronal mass ejections are found 72.37 % and 27.63 % respectively. Further we have concluded that geomagnetic storms are closely associated with the disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters. We have determined positive co-relation between magnitudes of geomagnetic storms and magnitude of jump in solar wind plasma temperature, jump in solar wind plasma density, jump in solar wind plasma velocity and jump in average interplanetary magnetic field with co-relation co-efficient 0 .35 between magnitude of geomagnetic storms and magnitude of jump in solar wind plasma temperature, 0.19 between magnitude of geomagnetic storms and magnitude of jump in solar wind density, 0.34 between magnitude of geomagnetic storms and magnitude of jump in solar wind plasma velocity, 0.66 between magnitude of geomagnetic storms and magnitude of jump in average interplanetary magnetic field respectively. We have concluded that geomagnetic storms are mainly caused by Coronal Mass Ejections and disturbances in solar wind plasma parameters that they generate.

  15. Solar Wind Charge Exchange During Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Ina P.; Cravens, Thomas E.; Sibeck, David G.; Collier, Michael R.; Kuntz, K. D.

    2012-01-01

    On March 31st. 2001, a coronal mass ejection pushed the subsolar magnetopause to the vicinity of geosynchronous orbit at 6.6 RE. The NASA/GSFC Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMe) employed a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model to simulate the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction during the peak of this geomagnetic storm. Robertson et aL then modeled the expected 50ft X-ray emission due to solar wind charge exchange with geocoronal neutrals in the dayside cusp and magnetosheath. The locations of the bow shock, magnetopause and cusps were clearly evident in their simulations. Another geomagnetic storm took place on July 14, 2000 (Bastille Day). We again modeled X-ray emission due to solar wind charge exchange, but this time as observed from a moving spacecraft. This paper discusses the impact of spacecraft location on observed X-ray emission and the degree to which the locations of the bow shock and magnetopause can be detected in images.

  16. Proxy records of Holocene storm events in coastal barrier systems: Storm-wave induced markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goslin, Jérôme; Clemmensen, Lars B.

    2017-10-01

    Extreme storm events in the coastal zone are one of the main forcing agents of short-term coastal system behavior. As such, storms represent a major threat to human activities concentrated along the coasts worldwide. In order to better understand the frequency of extreme events like storms, climate science must rely on longer-time records than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data. Proxy records of storm-wave or storm-wind induced activity in coastal barrier systems deposits have been widely used worldwide in recent years to document past storm events during the last millennia. This review provides a detailed state-of-the-art compilation of the proxies available from coastal barrier systems to reconstruct Holocene storm chronologies (paleotempestology). The present paper aims (I) to describe the erosional and depositional processes caused by storm-wave action in barrier and back-barrier systems (i.e. beach ridges, storm scarps and washover deposits), (ii) to understand how storm records can be extracted from barrier and back-barrier sedimentary bodies using stratigraphical, sedimentological, micro-paleontological and geochemical proxies and (iii) to show how to obtain chronological control on past storm events recorded in the sedimentary successions. The challenges that paleotempestology studies still face in the reconstruction of representative and reliable storm-chronologies using these various proxies are discussed, and future research prospects are outlined.

  17. The 2015 Summer Solstice Storm: One of the Major Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 Observed at Ground Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augusto, C. R. A.; Navia, C. E.; de Oliveira, M. N.; Nepomuceno, A. A.; Raulin, J. P.; Tueros, E.; de Mendonça, R. R. S.; Fauth, A. C.; Vieira de Souza, H.; Kopenkin, V.; Sinzi, T.

    2018-05-01

    We report on the 22 - 23 June 2015 geomagnetic storm that occurred at the summer solstice. There have been fewer intense geomagnetic storms during the current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, than in the previous cycle. This situation changed after mid-June 2015, when one of the largest solar active regions (AR 12371) of Solar Cycle 24 that was located close to the central meridian, produced several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with M-class flares. The impact of these CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere resulted in a moderate to severe G4-class geomagnetic storm on 22 - 23 June 2015 and a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm on 24 June. The G4 solstice storm was the second largest (so far) geomagnetic storm of Cycle 24. We highlight the ground-level observations made with the New-Tupi, Muonca, and the CARPET El Leoncito cosmic-ray detectors that are located within the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region. These observations are studied in correlation with data obtained by space-borne detectors (ACE, GOES, SDO, and SOHO) and other ground-based experiments. The CME designations are taken from the Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) automated catalog. As expected, Forbush decreases (FD) associated with the passing CMEs were recorded by these detectors. We note a peculiar feature linked to a severe geomagnetic storm event. The 21 June 2015 CME 0091 (CACTus CME catalog number) was likely associated with the 22 June summer solstice FD event. The angular width of CME 0091 was very narrow and measured {˜} 56° degrees seen from Earth. In most cases, only CME halos and partial halos lead to severe geomagnetic storms. We perform a cross-check analysis of the FD events detected during the rise phase of Solar Cycle 24, the geomagnetic parameters, and the CACTus CME catalog. Our study suggests that narrow angular-width CMEs that erupt in a westward direction from the Sun-Earth line can lead to moderate and severe geomagnetic storms. We also report on the strong solar proton

  18. Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling during intense magnetic storms (1978-1979)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Walter D.; Gonzalez, Alicia L. C.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Smith, Edward J.; Tang, Frances

    1989-01-01

    The solar wind-magnetosphere coupling problem during intense magnetic storms was investigated for ten intense magnetic storm events occurring between August 16, 1978 to December 28, 1979. Particular attention was given to the dependence of the ring current energization on the ISEE-measured solar-wind parameters and the evolution of the ring current during the main phase of the intense storms. Several coupling functions were tested as energy input, and several sets of the ring current decay time-constant were searched for the best correlation with the Dst response. Results indicate that a large-scale magnetopause reconnection operates during an intense storm event and that the solar wind ram pressure plays an important role in the energization of the ring current.

  19. Event storm detection and identification in communication systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albaghdadi, Mouayad; Briley, Bruce; Evens, Martha

    2006-01-01

    Event storms are the manifestation of an important class of abnormal behaviors in communication systems. They occur when a large number of nodes throughout the system generate a set of events within a small period of time. It is essential for network management systems to detect every event storm and identify its cause, in order to prevent and repair potential system faults. This paper presents a set of techniques for the effective detection and identification of event storms in communication systems. First, we introduce a new algorithm to synchronize events to a single node in the system. Second, the system's event log is modeled as a normally distributed random process. This is achieved by using data analysis techniques to explore and then model the statistical behavior of the event log. Third, event storm detection is proposed using a simple test statistic combined with an exponential smoothing technique to overcome the non-stationary behavior of event logs. Fourth, the system is divided into non-overlapping regions to locate the main contributing regions of a storm. We show that this technique provides us with a method for event storm identification. Finally, experimental results from a commercially deployed multimedia communication system that uses these techniques demonstrate their effectiveness

  20. Substorm activity during the main phase of magnetic storms induced by the CIR and ICME events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boroyev, R. N.; Vasiliev, M. S.

    2018-01-01

    In this work, the relation of high-latitude indices of geomagnetic activity (AE, Kp) with the rate of storm development and a solar wind electric field during the main phase of magnetic storm induced by the CIR and ICME events is investigated. 72 magnetic storms induced by CIR and ICME events have been selected. It is shown that for the CIR and ICME events the increase of average value of the Kp index (Kpaver) is observed with the growth of rate of storm development. The value of Kpaver index correlates with the magnitude of minimum value of Dst index (|Dstmin|) only for the ICME events. The analysis of average values of AE and Kp indices during the main phase of magnetic storm depending on the SW electric field has shown that for the CIR events, unlike the ICME events, the value of AEaver increases with the growth of average value of the electric field (Eswaver). The value of Kpaver correlates with the Eswaver only for the ICME events. The relation between geomagnetic indices and the maximum value of SW electric field (Eswmax) is weak. However, for the ICME events Kpaver correlates with Eswmax.

  1. The impact of solar flares and magnetic storms on humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joselyn, J.A.

    1992-01-01

    Three classes of solar emanations, namely, photon radiation from solar flares, solar energetic particles, and inhomogeneities in the solar wind that drive magnetic storms, are examined, and their effects on humans and technological systems are discussed. Solar flares may disrupt radio communications in the HF and VLF ranges. Energetic particles pose a special hazard at low-earth orbit and above, where they can penetrate barriers such as spacesuits and aluminum and destroy cells and solid state electronics. Energetic solar particles also influence terrestrial radio waves propagating through polar regions. Magnetic storms may disturb the operation of navigation instruments, power lines and pipelines, and satellites; they give rise to ionospheric storms which affect radio communication at all latitudes. There is also a growing body of evidence that changes in the geomagnetic field affect biological systems. 3 refs

  2. The impact of solar flares and magnetic storms on humans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joselyn, J.A. (NOAA, Space Environment Laboratory, Boulder, CO (United States))

    1992-03-01

    Three classes of solar emanations, namely, photon radiation from solar flares, solar energetic particles, and inhomogeneities in the solar wind that drive magnetic storms, are examined, and their effects on humans and technological systems are discussed. Solar flares may disrupt radio communications in the HF and VLF ranges. Energetic particles pose a special hazard at low-earth orbit and above, where they can penetrate barriers such as spacesuits and aluminum and destroy cells and solid state electronics. Energetic solar particles also influence terrestrial radio waves propagating through polar regions. Magnetic storms may disturb the operation of navigation instruments, power lines and pipelines, and satellites; they give rise to ionospheric storms which affect radio communication at all latitudes. There is also a growing body of evidence that changes in the geomagnetic field affect biological systems. 3 refs.

  3. Variations in tritium levels during single storm events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, L.W.

    1979-06-01

    Precipitation samples have been taken over a period of one calendar year to determine the variables in environmental tritium during single storm events. Where possible, comment is made on the hydrological implications of these variations

  4. Solar cycle distribution of strong solar proton events and the related solar-terrestrial phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Guiming; Yang, Xingxing; Ding, Liuguang; Liu, Yonghua; Lu, Yangping; Chen, Minhao

    2014-08-01

    We investigated the solar cycle distribution of strong solar proton events (SPEs, peak flux ≥1000 pfu) and the solar-terrestrial phenomena associated with the strong SPEs during solar cycles 21-23. The results show that 37 strong SPEs were registered over this period of time, where 20 strong SPEs were originated from the super active regions (SARs) and 28 strong SPEs were accompanied by the X-class flares. Most strong SPEs were not associated with the ground level enhancement (GLE) event. Most strong SPEs occurred in the descending phases of the solar cycles. The weaker the solar cycle, the higher the proportion of strong SPES occurred in the descending phase of the cycle. The number of the strong SPEs that occurred within a solar cycle is poorly associated with the solar cycle size. The intensity of the SPEs is highly dependent of the location of their source regions, with the super SPEs (≥20000 pfu) distributed around solar disk center. A super SPE was always accompanied by a fast shock driven by the associated coronal mass ejection and a great geomagnetic storm. The source location of strongest GLE event is distributed in the well-connected region. The SPEs associated with super GLE events (peak increase rate ≥100%) which have their peak flux much lower than 10000 pfu were not accompanied by an intense geomagnetic storm.

  5. Two-Step Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm Using Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Wind Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, R.-S.; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Park, Y.-D.; Kim, Y.-H.

    2014-01-01

    To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz = -5 nT or Ey = 3 mV/m for t = 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) (i.e. Magnetic Field Magnitude, B (sub z) less than or equal to -5 nanoTeslas or duskward Electrical Field, E (sub y) greater than or equal to 3 millivolts per meter for time greater than or equal to 2 hours for moderate storms with Minimum Disturbance Storm Time, Dst less than -50 nanoTeslas) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL [i.e. Temerin Li] model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90 percent) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87 percent). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88 percent), while the former correctly forecasts only 71 percent of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80 percent) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (n, i.e. cap operator - the intersection set that is comprised of all the elements that are common to both), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81 percent) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (?, i.e. cup operator - the union set that is comprised of all the elements of either or both

  6. A dynamic system to forecast ionospheric storm disturbances based on solar wind conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Cander

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available For the reliable performance of technologically advanced radio communications systems under geomagnetically disturbed conditions, the forecast and modelling of the ionospheric response during storms is a high priority. The ionospheric storm forecasting models that are currently in operation have shown a high degree of reliability during quiet conditions, but they have proved inadequate during storm events. To improve their prediction accuracy, we have to take advantage of the deeper understanding in ionospheric storm dynamics that is currently available, indicating a correlation between the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF disturbances and the qualitative signature of ionospheric storm disturbances at middle latitude stations. In this paper we analyse observations of the foF2 critical frequency parameter from one mid-latitude European ionospheric station (Chilton in conjunction with observations of IMF parameters (total magnitude, Bt and Bz-IMF component from the ACE spacecraft mission for eight storm events. The determination of the time delay in the ionospheric response to the interplanetary medium disturbances leads to significant results concerning the forecast of the ionospheric storms onset and their development during the first 24 h. In this way the real-time ACE observations of the solar wind parameters may be used in the development of a real-time dynamic ionospheric storm model with adequate accuracy.

  7. Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling during intense magnetic storms (1978--1979)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, W.D.; Tsurutani, B.T.; Gonzalez, A.L.C.; Smith, E.J.; Tang, F.; Akasofu, S.

    1989-01-01

    The solar wind-magnetosphere coupling problem is investigated for the ten intense magnetic storms (Dst <-100 nT) that occurred during the 500 days (August 16, 1978 to December 28, 1979) studied by Gonzalez and Tsurutani [1987]. This investigation concentrates on the ring current energization in terms of solar wind parameters, in order to explain the | -Dst | growth observed during these storms. Thus several coupling functions are tested as energy input and several sets of the ring current decay time-constant τ are searched to find best correlations with the Dst response. From the fairly large correlation coefficients found in this study, there is strong evidence that large scale magnetopause reconnection operates during such intense storm events and that the solar wind ram pressure plays an important role in the ring current energization. Thus a ram pressure correction factor is suggested for expressions concerning the reconnection power during time intervals with large ram pressure variations

  8. Phosphorus Dynamics along River Continuum during Typhoon Storm Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Fai Chow

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Information on riverine phosphorus (P dynamics during typhoon storm events remains scarce in subtropical regions. Thus, this study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of riverine phosphorus in a headwater catchment during three typhoon events. Continuous sampling (3 h intervals of stormwater samples and discharge data were conducted at five locations, which represent the upstream, transitional zone, and downstream areas of the main inflow river. The results revealed that the average event mean concentrations (EMCs for total dissolved phosphorus (TDP and particulate phosphorus (PP in the upstream catchment of Fei-Tsui reservoir were 15.66 μg/L and 11.94 μg/L, respectively. There was at least a 1.3-fold increase in flow-weighted concentrations of TDP and PP from the upper to lower reaches of the main stream. PP and TDP were transported either in clockwise or anticlockwise directions, depending on storm intensity and source. The transport of TDP was primarily regulated by the subsurface flow during the storm event. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP contributes more than 50% of the TDP load in moderate storms, while extreme storms supply a greater dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP load into the stream. TDP accounted for approximately 50% of TP load during typhoon storms. Mobilization of all P forms was observed from upstream to downstream of the river, except for DOP. A decrease of DOP load on passing downstream may reflect the change in phosphorus form along the river continuum. Peak discharge and antecedent dry days are correlated positively with P fluxes, indicating that river bank erosion and re-suspension of within-channel sediment are the dominant pathways of P during typhoon storm periods.

  9. Solar Proton Events in Six Solar Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitaly, Ishkov

    Based on materials the catalogs of solar proton events (SPE) in 1955 ‒ 2010 and list SPE for the current 24 solar cycle (SC) are examined confirmed SPE with E> 10 MeV proton flux in excess of 1 proton cm-2 s ster-1 (pfu) from Švestka and Simon’s (1955 - 1969) and 5 volumes Logachev’s (1970 - 2006) Catalogs of SPE. Historically thus it was formed, that the measurements of the proton fluxes began in the epoch “increased” solar activity (SC 18 ‒ 22), and includes transition period of the solar magnetic fields reconstruction from epoch “increased” to the epoch “lowered” solar activity (22 ‒ 23 SC). In current 24 SC ‒ first SC of the incipient epoch of “lowered” SA ‒ SPE realize under the new conditions, to that of previously not observed. As showed a study of five solar cycles with the reliable measurements of E> 10 MeV proton flux in excess of 1 pfu (1964 - 2013): ‒ a quantity of SPEs remained approximately identical in SC 20, 21, somewhat decreased in the initial solar cycle of the solar magnetic fields reconstruction period (22), but it returned to the same quantity in, the base for the period of reconstruction, SC 23. ‒ Into the first 5 years of the each solar cycle development the rate of the proton generation events noticeably increased in 22 cycles of solar activity and returned to the average in cycles 23 and 24. ‒ Extreme solar flare events are achieved, as a rule, in the solar magnetic fields reconstruction period (August - September 1859; June 1991; October ‒ November 2003.), it is confirmed also for SPE: the extreme fluxes of solar protons (S4) except one (August 1972) were occurred in period of perestroika (SC 22 and 23). This can speak, that inside the epochs SA, when the generation of magnetic field in the convective zone works in the steady-state regime, extreme SPE are improbable. ‒ The largest in the fluxes of protons (S3, S4) occur in the complexes of the active regions flare events, where magnetic field more

  10. Overview of on-board measurements during solar storm periods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beck, P.; Dyer, C.; Fuller, N.; Hands, A.; Latocha, M.; Rollet, S.; Spurný, František

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 136, č. 4 (2009), s. 297-303 ISSN 0144-8420 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/09/0171 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10480505 Keywords : solar storm * aircraft crew * cosmic radiation Subject RIV: BG - Nuclear, Atomic and Molecular Physics, Colliders Impact factor: 0.707, year: 2009

  11. Solar flare effects and storm sudden commencement even in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1998-05-08

    Variations in the three components of geomagnetic field were observed at the twenty-two geomagnetic Euro-African Observatories during the solar flare that occurred on the 6 May, 1998 at 0080UT and storm sudden commencement that took place on May 8, 1998 at 15.00 UT. The geomagnetic field on 6 May, 1998 was ...

  12. Statistical Characteristics of Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Enhancements During Geomagnetic Storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-R. Choi

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements are known to cause various types of disturbances to the magnetosphere. In particular, dynamic pressure enhancements may affect the evolution of magnetic storms when they occur during storm times. In this paper, we have investigated the statistical significance and features of dynamic pressure enhancements during magnetic storm times. For the investigation, we have used a total of 91 geomagnetic storms for 2001-2003, for which the Dst minimum (Dst_min is below -50 nT. Also, we have imposed a set of selection criteria for a pressure enhancement to be considered an event: The main selection criterion is that the pressure increases by ≥50% or ≥3nPa within 30 min and remains to be elevated for 10 min or longer. For our statistical analysis, we define the storm time to be the interval from the main Dst decrease, through Dst_min, to the point where the Dst index recovers by 50%. Our main results are summarized as follows. (i ~81% of the studied storms indicate at least one event of pressure enhancements. When averaged over all the 91 storms, the occurrence rate is 4.5 pressure enhancement events per storm and 0.15 pressure enhancement events per hour. (ii The occurrence rate of the pressure enhancements is about three times higher for CME-driven storm times than for CIR-driven storm times. (iii Only 21.1% of the pressure enhancements show a clear association with an interplanetary shock. (iv A large number of the pressure enhancement events are accompanied with a simultaneous change of IMF By and/or Bz: For example, 73.5% of the pressure enhancement events are associated with an IMF change of either |∆Bz|>2nT or |∆By|>2nT. This last finding suggests that one should consider possible interplay effects between the simultaneous pressure and IMF changes in many situations.

  13. The Ring Current Response to Solar and Interplanetary Storm Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouikis, C.; Kistler, L. M.; Bingham, S.; Kronberg, E. A.; Gkioulidou, M.; Huang, C. L.; Farrugia, C. J.

    2014-12-01

    The ring current responds differently to the different solar and interplanetary storm drivers such as coronal mass injections, (CME's), corotating interaction regions (CIR's), high-speed streamers and other structures. The resulting changes in the ring current particle pressure, in turn, change the global magnetic field, controlling the transport of the radiation belts. To quantitatively determine the field changes during a storm throughout the magnetosphere, it is necessary to understand the transport, sources and losses of the particles that contribute to the ring current. Because the measured ring current energy spectra depend not only on local processes, but also on the history of the ions along their entire drift path, measurements of ring current energy spectra at two or more locations can be used to strongly constrain the time dependent magnetic and electric fields. In this study we use data predominantly from the Cluster and the Van Allen Probes, covering more than a full solar cycle (from 2001 to 2014). For the period 2001-2012, the Cluster CODIF and RAPID measurements of the inner magnetosphere are the primary data set used to monitor the storm time ring current variability. After 2012, the Cluster data set complements the data from the Van Allen Probes HOPE and RBSPICE instruments, providing additional measurements from different MLT and L shells. Selected storms from this periods, allow us to study the ring current dynamics and pressure changes, as a function of L shell, magnetic local time, and the type of interplanetary disturbances.

  14. The extreme solar storm of May 1921: observations and a complex topological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lundstedt

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A complex solid torus model was developed in order to be able to study an extreme solar storm, the so-called "Great Storm" or "New York Railroad Storm" of May 1921, when neither high spatial and time resolution magnetic field measurements, solar flare nor coronal mass ejection observations were available. We suggest that a topological change happened in connection with the occurrence of the extreme solar storm. The solar storm caused one of the most severe space weather effects ever.

  15. Energetics of small electron acceleration episodes in the solar corona from radio noise storm observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Tomin; Subramanian, Prasad

    2018-05-01

    Observations of radio noise storms can act as sensitive probes of nonthermal electrons produced in small acceleration events in the solar corona. We use data from noise storm episodes observed jointly by the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) and the Nancay Radioheliograph (NRH) to study characteristics of the nonthermal electrons involved in the emission. We find that the electrons carry 1021 to 1024 erg/s, and that the energy contained in the electrons producing a representative noise storm burst ranges from 1020 to 1023 ergs. These results are a direct probe of the energetics involved in ubiquitous, small-scale electron acceleration episodes in the corona, and could be relevant to a nanoflare-like scenario for coronal heating.

  16. COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF THE INFLUENCING EFFECTS OF GEOMAGNETIC SOLAR STORMS ON EARTHQUAKES IN ANATOLIAN PENINSULA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yesugey Sadik Cengiz

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Earthquakes are tectonic events that take place within the fractures of the earth's crust, namely faults. Above certain scale, earthquakes can result in widespread fatalities and substantial financial loss. In addition to the movement of tectonic plates relative to each other, it is widely discussed that there are other external influences originate outside earth that can trigger earthquakes. These influences are called "triggering effects". The purpose of this article is to present a statistical view to elaborate if the solar geomagnetic storms trigger earthquakes.As a model, the research focuses on the Anatolian peninsula, presenting 41 years of historical data on magnetic storms and earthquakes collated from national and international resources. As a result of the comparative assessment of the data, it is concluded that the geomagnetic storms do not trigger earthquakes.

  17. NASA seeks to revive lost probe that traced solar storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voosen, Paul

    2018-02-01

    NASA's Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE), a satellite that failed in 2005, was recently discovered to be reactivated by an amateur astronomer. Until its demise, IMAGE provided unparalleled views of solar storms crashing into Earth's magnetosphere, a capability that has not been replaced since. The amateur astronomer was on the search for Zuma, a classified U.S. satellite that's believed to have failed after launch. He instead discovered IMAGE, broadcasting again, likely thanks to a reboot that occurred after its batteries drained during a past solar eclipse. NASA scientists are now working to communicate with the satellite in the hopes of reviving its six scientific instruments.

  18. Distant Tail Behavior During High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, C. M.; Tsurutani, B. T.

    1997-01-01

    We have examined the ISEE 3 distant tail data during three intense magnetic storms and have identified the tail response to high-speed solar wind streams, interplanetary magnetic clouds, and near-Earth storms.

  19. (abstract) The Distant Tail Behavior During High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, C. M.; Tsurutani, B. T.

    1996-01-01

    We have examined the ISEE-3 distant tail data during three intense magnetic storms and have identified the tail response to high speed solar wind streams, interplanetary magnetic clouds, and near-Earth storms.

  20. A semi-analytical foreshock model for energetic storm particle events inside 1 AU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vainio Rami

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available We have constructed a semi-analytical model of the energetic-ion foreshock of a CME-driven coronal/interplanetary shock wave responsible for the acceleration of large solar energetic particle (SEP events. The model is based on the analytical model of diffusive shock acceleration of Bell (1978, appended with a temporal dependence of the cut-off momentum of the energetic particles accelerated at the shock, derived from the theory. Parameters of the model are re-calibrated using a fully time-dependent self-consistent simulation model of the coupled particle acceleration and Alfvén-wave generation upstream of the shock. Our results show that analytical estimates of the cut-off energy resulting from the simplified theory and frequently used in SEP modelling are overestimating the cut-off momentum at the shock by one order magnitude. We show also that the cut-off momentum observed remotely far upstream of the shock (e.g., at 1 AU can be used to infer the properties of the foreshock and the resulting energetic storm particle (ESP event, when the shock is still at small distances from the Sun, unaccessible to the in-situ observations. Our results can be used in ESP event modelling for future missions to the inner heliosphere, like the Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus as well as in developing acceleration models for SEP events in the solar corona.

  1. Solar wind drivers of geomagnetic storms during more than four solar cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richardson Ian G.

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Using a classification of the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types: (1 High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun; (2 Slow, interstream solar wind; and (3 Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections (CMEs at the Sun, including interplanetary CMEs and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions, we determine the drivers of geomagnetic storms of various size ranges based on the Kp index and the NOAA “G” criteria since 1964, close to the beginning of the space era, to 2011, encompassing more than four solar cycles (20–23. We also briefly discuss the occurrence of storms since the beginning of the Kp index in 1932, in the minimum before cycle 17. We note that the extended low level of storm activity during the minimum following cycle 23 is without precedent in this 80-year interval. Furthermore, the “typical” numbers of storm days/cycle quoted in the standard NOAA G storm table appear to be significantly higher than those obtained from our analysis, except for the strongest (G5 storms, suggesting that they should be revised downward.

  2. On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvakumaran, R.; Veenadhari, B.; Akiyama, S.; Pandya, Megha; Gopalswamy, N,; Yashiro, S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Makela, P.; Xie, H.

    2016-01-01

    The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

  3. Flight attendant radiation dose from solar particle events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Jeri L; Mertens, Christopher J; Grajewski, Barbara; Luo, Lian; Tseng, Chih-Yu; Cassinelli, Rick T

    2014-08-01

    Research has suggested that work as a flight attendant may be related to increased risk for reproductive health effects. Air cabin exposures that may influence reproductive health include radiation dose from galactic cosmic radiation and solar particle events. This paper describes the assessment of radiation dose accrued during solar particle events as part of a reproductive health study of flight attendants. Solar storm data were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center list of solar proton events affecting the Earth environment to ascertain storms relevant to the two study periods (1992-1996 and 1999-2001). Radiation dose from exposure to solar energetic particles was estimated using the NAIRAS model in conjunction with galactic cosmic radiation dose calculated using the CARI-6P computer program. Seven solar particle events were determined to have potential for significant radiation exposure, two in the first study period and five in the second study period, and over-lapped with 24,807 flight segments. Absorbed (and effective) flight segment doses averaged 6.5 μGy (18 μSv) and 3.1 μGy (8.3 μSv) for the first and second study periods, respectively. Maximum doses were as high as 440 μGy (1.2 mSv) and 20 flight segments had doses greater than 190 μGy (0.5 mSv). During solar particle events, a pregnant flight attendant could potentially exceed the equivalent dose limit to the conceptus of 0.5 mSv in a month recommended by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements.

  4. Solar cycle effect on geomagnetic storms caused by interplanetary magnetic clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-C. Wu

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigated geomagnetic activity which was induced by interplanetary magnetic clouds during the past four solar cycles, 1965–1998. We have found that the intensity of such geomagnetic storms is more severe in solar maximum than in solar minimum. In addition, we affirm that the average solar wind speed of magnetic clouds is faster in solar maximum than in solar minimum. In this study, we find that solar activity level plays a major role on the intensity of geomagnetic storms. In particular, some new statistical results are found and listed as follows. (1 The intensity of a geomagnetic storm in a solar active period is stronger than in a solar quiet period. (2 The magnitude of negative Bzmin is larger in a solar active period than in a quiet period. (3 Solar wind speed in an active period is faster than in a quiet period. (4 VBsmax in an active period is much larger than in a quiet period. (5 Solar wind parameters, Bzmin, Vmax and VBsmax are correlated well with geomagnetic storm intensity, Dstmin during a solar active period. (6 Solar wind parameters, Bzmin, and VBsmax are not correlated well (very poorly for Vmax with geomagnetic storm intensity during a solar quiet period. (7 The speed of the solar wind plays a key role in the correlation of solar wind parameters vs. the intensity of a geomagnetic storm. (8 More severe storms with Dstmin≤−100 nT caused by MCs occurred in the solar active period than in the solar quiet period.

  5. A synoptic study of geomagnetic storms and related solar phenomena during 1976 through 1978

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marubashi, K.

    1979-01-01

    An attempt has been made to identify the causes of geomagnetic storms which occurred during the three year period from 1976 through 1978. Of the 114 storms with D sub(st) = 25 investigated in this paper, 52 storms are found to be caused by corotating streams, 16 storms by solar flares, and 19 storms by compound effects of both corotating streams and flares. The causes of the remaining 27 storms could not be identified. By examining the characteristics of those solar flares which were taken to be responsible for geomagnetic storms, a semiquantitative conclusion has been obtained about the criteria for the flares which can produce magnetic storms. In addition, clear semiannual variation has been found in geomagnetic activity caused by flare-free corotating streams. (author)

  6. NOAA Satellites Provide a Keen View of the Martin Luther King Solar Storm of January 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, D. C.; Allen, J. H.

    2005-05-01

    Solar active region 0720 rotated onto the east limb on January 10th and put on a pyrotechnic display uncharacteristic for this phase of the solar cycle before disappearing beyond the west limb on January 23rd. On January 15th this region released the first of five X-class solar flares. The last of those flares, January 20th, was associated with an extraordinary ion storm whose effect reached Earth's surface. This paper highlights the record of this event made by NOAA's GOES satellites via their Space Environment Monitor (SEM) subsystems that measures X-ray, energetic particles, and the magnetic field vector at the satellite. Displays of those data are supplemented by neutron monitor data to illustrate their relationship to the January 20th Ground Level Event. GOES-12 is also equipped with the Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) that produces an image of the Sun in X-ray wavelengths once per minute. Movies created from those data perfectly illustrate the cause-and-effect relationship between intense solar activity and satellite disruptions. The flares on January 17th and 20th are closely followed by noise in the SXI telescope resulting from energetic ions penetrating SXI. Ions with sufficient velocity and atomic number can penetrate satellite components and deposit charge along their path. Sufficient charge deposition can introduce erroneous information into solid-state devices. A survey of satellites that experienced problems of this type during this event will also be presented.

  7. Variation of Magnetic Field (By , Bz) Polarity and Statistical Analysis of Solar Wind Parameters during the Magnetic Storm Period

    OpenAIRE

    Ga-Hee Moon

    2011-01-01

    It is generally believed that the occurrence of a magnetic storm depends upon the solar wind conditions, particularly the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component. To understand the relationship between solar wind parameters and magnetic storms, variations in magnetic field polarity and solar wind parameters during magnetic storms are examined. A total of 156 storms during the period of 1997~2003 are used. According to the interplanetary driver, magnetic storms are ...

  8. The Analysis of the Properties of Super Solar Proton Events and the Associated Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L. B.; Le, G. M.; Lu, Y. P.; Chen, M. H.; Li, P.; Yin, Z. Q.

    2014-05-01

    The solar flare, the propagation speed of shock driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) from the sun to the Earth, the source longitudes and Carrington longitudes, and the geomagnetic storms associated with each super solar proton event with the peak flux equal to or exceeding 10000 pfu have been investigated. The analysis results show that the source longitudes of super solar proton events ranged from E30° to W75°. The Carrington longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the two longitude bands, 130°˜220° and 260°˜320°, respectively. All super solar proton events were accompanied by major solar flares and fast CMEs. The averaged speeds of shocks propagated from the sun to the Earth were greater than 1200 km/s. Eight super solar proton events were followed by major geomagnetic storms (Dst≤-100 nT). One super solar proton event was followed by a geomagnetic storm with Dst=-96 nT.

  9. Spectropolarimetric Observations of Solar Noise Storms at Low Frequencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mugundhan, V.; Ramesh, R.; Kathiravan, C.; Gireesh, G. V. S.; Hegde, Aathira

    2018-03-01

    A new high-resolution radio spectropolarimeter instrument operating in the frequency range of 15 - 85 MHz has recently been commissioned at the Radio Astronomy Field Station of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics at Gauribidanur, 100 km north of Bangalore, India. We describe the design and construction of this instrument. We present observations of a solar radio noise storm associated with Active Region (AR) 12567 in the frequency range of {≈} 15 - 85 MHz during 18 and 19 July 2016, observed using this instrument in the meridian-transit mode. This is the first report that we are aware of in which both the burst and continuum properties are derived simultaneously. Spectral indices and degree of polarization of both the continuum radiation and bursts are estimated. It is found that i) Type I storm bursts have a spectral index of {≈} {+}3.5, ii) the spectral index of the background continuum is ≈+2.9, iii) the transition frequency between Type I and Type III storms occurs at ≈55 MHz, iv) Type III bursts have an average spectral index of ≈-2.7, v) the spectral index of the Type III continuum is ≈-1.6, and vi) the degree of circular polarization of all Type I (Type III) bursts is ≈90% (30%). The results obtained here indicate that the continuum emission is due to bursts occurring in rapid succession. We find that the derived parameters for Type I bursts are consistent with suprathermal electron acceleration theory and those of Type III favor fundamental plasma emission.

  10. Changes in the High-Latitude Topside Ionospheric Vertical Electron-Density Profiles in Response to Solar-Wind Perturbations During Large Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Robert F.; Fainberg, Joseph; Osherovich, Vladimir; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Arbacher, Becca

    2011-01-01

    The latest results from an investigation to establish links between solar-wind and topside-ionospheric parameters will be presented including a case where high-latitude topside electron-density Ne(h) profiles indicated dramatic rapid changes in the scale height during the main phase of a large magnetic storm (Dst wind data obtained from the NASA OMNIWeb database indicated that the magnetic storm was due to a magnetic cloud. This event is one of several large magnetic storms being investigated during the interval from 1965 to 1984 when both solar-wind and digital topside ionograms, from either Alouette-2, ISIS-1, or ISIS-2, are potentially available.

  11. Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate Storm Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge...

  12. Polarization reversal during the solar noise storm activity of August 1971

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurihara, Masahiro

    1975-01-01

    Reversals of the sense of circular polarization of solar radio emission were observed for active type I storms in August 1971. Observations with a 160-MHz interferometer revealed that the reversals were caused by sudden growth and decay of a secondary storm source whose sense of polarization was opposite to that of the long-lasting main source. The time variations of both the associated S-component sources and sunspots are compared with that of the storm sources. The role of the magnetic field, which presumably connects the storm sources, the S-component sources, and the sunspots, is discussed in relation to the origin of the storm activity. (author)

  13. Solar Decathlon 2005: The Event in Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, S.; Nahan, R.; Warner, C.; Wassmer, M.

    2006-06-01

    Solar Decathlon 2005: The Event in Review is a technical report describing the 2005 Solar Decathlon, an event sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy wherein 18 collegiate teams competed in 10 contests to design, build, and operate an attractive, efficient, entirely solar-powered home. The report gives an overview of the competition, including final results, team strategies, and detailed descriptions the 18 homes.

  14. Identifying Preserved Storm Events on Beaches from Trenches and Cores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wadman, H. M.; Gallagher, E. L.; McNinch, J.; Reniers, A.; Koktas, M.

    2014-12-01

    Recent research suggests that even small scale variations in grain size in the shallow stratigraphy of sandy beaches can significantly influence large-scale morphology change. However, few quantitative studies of variations in shallow stratigraphic layers, as differentiated by variations in mean grain size, have been conducted, in no small part due to the difficulty of collecting undisturbed sediment cores in the energetic lower beach and swash zone. Due to this lack of quantitative stratigraphic grain size data, most coastal morphology models assume that uniform grain sizes dominate sandy beaches, allowing for little to no temporal or spatial variations in grain size heterogeneity. In a first-order attempt to quantify small-scale, temporal and spatial variations in beach stratigraphy, thirty-five vibracores were collected at the USACE Field Research Facility (FRF), Duck, NC, in March-April of 2014 using the FRF's Coastal Research and Amphibious Buggy (CRAB). Vibracores were collected at set locations along a cross-shore profile from the toe of the dune to a water depth of ~1m in the surf zone. Vibracores were repeatedly collected from the same locations throughout a tidal cycle, as well as pre- and post a nor'easter event. In addition, two ~1.5m deep trenches were dug in the cross-shore and along-shore directions (each ~14m in length) after coring was completed to allow better interpretation of the stratigraphic sequences observed in the vibracores. The elevations of coherent stratigraphic layers, as revealed in vibracore-based fence diagrams and trench data, are used to relate specific observed stratigraphic sequences to individual storm events observed at the FRF. These data provide a first-order, quantitative examination of the small-scale temporal and spatial variability of shallow grain size along an open, sandy coastline. The data will be used to refine morphological model predictions to include variations in grain size and associated shallow stratigraphy.

  15. Observations and global numerical modelling of the St. Patrick's Day 2015 geomagnetic storm event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foerster, M.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Doornbos, E.; Astafieva, E.; Zakharenkova, I.

    2017-12-01

    With a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at 04:45 UT on St. Patrick's day 2015 started the most severe geomagnetic storm in solar cycle 24. It appeared as a two-stage geomagnetic storm with a minimum SYM-H value of -233 nT. In the response to the storm commencement in the first activation, a short-term positive effect in the ionospheric vertical electron content (VTEC) occurred at low- and mid-latitudes on the dayside. The second phase commencing around 12:30 UT lasted longer and caused significant and complex storm-time changes around the globe with hemispherical different ionospheric storm reactions in different longitudinal ranges. Swarm-C observations of the neutral mass density variation along the orbital path as well as Langmuir probe plasma and magnetometer measurements of all three Swarm satellites and global TEC records are used for physical interpretations and modelling of the positive/negative storm scenario. These observations pose a challenge for the global numerical modelling of thermosphere-ionosphere storm processes as the storm, which occurred around spring equinox, obviously signify the existence of other impact factors than seasonal dependence for hemispheric asymmetries to occur. Numerical simulation trials using the Potsdam version of the Upper Atmosphere Model (UAM-P) are presented to explain these peculiar M-I-T storm processes.

  16. Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

    OpenAIRE

    J. Hosek; P. Musilek; E. Lozowski; P. Pytlak

    2011-01-01

    The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply...

  17. A Proton-Cyclotron Wave Storm Generated by Unstable Proton Distribution Functions in the Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicks, R. T.; Alexander, R. L.; Stevens, M.; Wilson, L. B., III; Moya, P. S.; Vinas, A.; Jian, L. K.; Roberts, D. A.; O’Modhrain, S.; Gilbert, J. A.; hide

    2016-01-01

    We use audification of 0.092 seconds cadence magnetometer data from the Wind spacecraft to identify waves with amplitudes greater than 0.1 nanoteslas near the ion gyrofrequency (approximately 0.1 hertz) with duration longer than 1 hour during 2008. We present one of the most common types of event for a case study and find it to be a proton-cyclotron wave storm, coinciding with highly radial magnetic field and a suprathermal proton beam close in density to the core distribution itself. Using linear Vlasov analysis, we conclude that the long-duration, large-amplitude waves are generated by the instability of the proton distribution function. The origin of the beam is unknown, but the radial field period is found in the trailing edge of a fast solar wind stream and resembles other events thought to be caused by magnetic field footpoint motion or interchange reconnection between coronal holes and closed field lines in the corona.

  18. The Distant Tail Behavior During High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, C. M.; Tsurutani, B. T.

    1996-01-01

    We have examined the ISEE-3 distant tail data during three intense (Dststorms and have identified the tail response to high speed solar wind streams, interplanetary magnetic clouds, and near-Earth storms. The three storms have a peak Dst ranging from -150 to -220 nT, and occur on Jan. 9, Feb. 4, and Aug. 8, 1993.

  19. Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

    Storm surges are a major concern for many coastal communities, and rising levels of surges is a key concern in relation to climate change. The sea level of a statistical 100-year or 1000-year storm surge event and similar statistical measures are used for spatial planning and emergency preparedness...

  20. Morphology of geomagnetic storms, recorded at Hurbanovo, and its relation to solar activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochabova, P.; Psenakova, M.

    1977-01-01

    The morphological structure of geomagnetic storms was investigated using the data on 414 storms, recorded in the years 1949 to 1968 at the Geomagnetic Observatory of Hurbanovo (phi=47.9 deg N, lambda=18.2 deg E). These data also formed a suitable basis for investigating the effect of the solar activity on the characteristic features of storms. The storm-time variation of the geomagnetic field was considered after the Sq-variation had been eliminated. The sets of storms, i.e. 263 storms recorded at a time of high sunspot activity and 151 storms recorded at a time of low activity, were divided into 7 groups, depending on the duration of their initial phase. In 92% of the investigated storms the increase in the horizontal component lasted from 0 to 15 hrs. The effect of the solar activity was markedly reflected in the occurrence of very severe storms, as well as in the maximum decrease in the H-component in the main phase. This can also be seen in the rate at which the storms recover. (author)

  1. Solar Wind Features Responsible for Magnetic Storms and Substorms During the Declining Phase of the Solar Cycle: 197

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, B.; Arballo, J.

    1994-01-01

    We examine interplanetary data and geomagnetic activity indices during 1974 when two long-lasting solar wind corotating streams existed. We find that only 3 major storms occurred during 1974, and all were associated with coronal mass ejections. Each high speed stream was led by a shock, so the three storms had sudden commencements. Two of the 1974 major storms were associated with shock compression of preexisting southward fields and one was caused by southward fields within a magnetic cloud. Corotating streams were responsible for recurring moderate to weak magnetic storms.

  2. On the effects of solar storms to the decaying orbital space debris

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Rachman, Abdul

    2014-01-01

    Any man-made object in Earth's orbit that no longer serves a useful purpose is classified as orbital debris. Debris objects come from a variety of sources. The majority is related to satellite fragmentation. Other major sources of debris are propulsion systems, and fragmentation of spent upper stages, payload and mission related debris. Serious concern about orbital debris has been growing. Knowledge of the future debris environment is important to both satellite designers, and mission planners, who need to know what hazards a satellite might encounter during the course of its mission. Therefore, it is important to know how much debris is in orbit, where it is located, and when it will decay. The debris environment is complex and dynamically evolving. Objects of different shape and size behave differently in orbit. The geoeffectiveness space environments include solar flux at 10.7 cm, solar energetic particles flux or speed, solar wind flow pressure, electric field, and geomagnetic indices. We study the decaying orbital debris from Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) messages in conjuction with geoeffectiveness space environments through time epoch correlation. We found that the decaying and reentry orbital debris are triggered by space environment enhancement within at least one week before reentry. It is not necessary a transient or high energetic and severe solar storm events are needed in decaying processes. We propose that the gradual enhancement processes of space environment will cause satellite surface charging due to energetic electron and enhance drag force

  3. On the effects of solar storms to the decaying orbital space debris

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani, E-mail: dhani@as.itb.ac.id [Astronomy Division and Bosscha Observatory, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Rachman, Abdul [Space Science Center, National Institute of Aeronautics and Space, Junjunan 133, Bandung 40173 (Indonesia)

    2014-03-24

    Any man-made object in Earth's orbit that no longer serves a useful purpose is classified as orbital debris. Debris objects come from a variety of sources. The majority is related to satellite fragmentation. Other major sources of debris are propulsion systems, and fragmentation of spent upper stages, payload and mission related debris. Serious concern about orbital debris has been growing. Knowledge of the future debris environment is important to both satellite designers, and mission planners, who need to know what hazards a satellite might encounter during the course of its mission. Therefore, it is important to know how much debris is in orbit, where it is located, and when it will decay. The debris environment is complex and dynamically evolving. Objects of different shape and size behave differently in orbit. The geoeffectiveness space environments include solar flux at 10.7 cm, solar energetic particles flux or speed, solar wind flow pressure, electric field, and geomagnetic indices. We study the decaying orbital debris from Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) messages in conjuction with geoeffectiveness space environments through time epoch correlation. We found that the decaying and reentry orbital debris are triggered by space environment enhancement within at least one week before reentry. It is not necessary a transient or high energetic and severe solar storm events are needed in decaying processes. We propose that the gradual enhancement processes of space environment will cause satellite surface charging due to energetic electron and enhance drag force.

  4. Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettle, Anthony

    2016-04-01

    Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the

  5. Possible mechanism of solar noise storm generation in meter wavelength

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genkin, L.G.; Erukhimov, L.M.; Levin, B.N.

    1989-01-01

    Fluctuation plasma mechanism of noise storm generation is proposed. The sporadic formation of density irregularities in plasma (Langmuir) turbulence region is shown to be the result of thermal stratification of plasma. The noise storm type 1 bursts in their typical parameters are like radio emission due to plasma turbulence conversion on this structures

  6. Effects of Asian dust storm events on daily mortality in Taipei, Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y.-S.; Sheen, P.-C.; Chen, E.-R.; Liu, Y.-K.; Wu, T.-N.; Yang, C.-Y.

    2004-01-01

    In spring, windblown dust storms originating in the deserts of Mongolia and China make their way to Taipei City. These occurrences are known as Asian dust storm events. The objective of this study was to assess the possible effects of Asian dust storms on the mortality of residents in Taipei, Taiwan, during the period from 1995 to 2000. We identified 39 dust storm episodes, which were classified as index days. Daily deaths on the index days were compared with deaths on the comparison days. We selected two comparison days for each index day, 7 days before the index day and 7 days after the index day. The strongest estimated effects of dust storms were increases of 7.66% in risk for respiratory disease 1 day after the event, 4.92% for total deaths 2 days following the dust storms and 2.59% for circulatory diseases 2 days following the dust storms. However, none of these effects were statistically significant. This study found greater specificity for associations with respiratory deaths, and this increases the likelihood that the association between dust events and daily mortality represents a causal relationship

  7. Statistical analysis of solar proton events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Kurt

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available A new catalogue of 253 solar proton events (SPEs with energy >10MeV and peak intensity >10 protons/cm2.s.sr (pfu at the Earth's orbit for three complete 11-year solar cycles (1970-2002 is given. A statistical analysis of this data set of SPEs and their associated flares that occurred during this time period is presented. It is outlined that 231 of these proton events are flare related and only 22 of them are not associated with Ha flares. It is also noteworthy that 42 of these events are registered as Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs in neutron monitors. The longitudinal distribution of the associated flares shows that a great number of these events are connected with west flares. This analysis enables one to understand the long-term dependence of the SPEs and the related flare characteristics on the solar cycle which are useful for space weather prediction.

  8. Radio Astronomers Get Their First Glimpse of Powerful Solar Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-08-01

    Astronomers have made the first radio-telescope images of a powerful coronal mass ejection on the Sun, giving them a long-sought glimpse of hitherto unseen aspects of these potentially dangerous events. "These observations are going to provide us with a new and unique tool for deciphering the mechanisms of coronal mass ejections and how they are related to other solar events," said Tim Bastian, an astronomer at the National Science Foundation's National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) in Charlottesville, Virginia. Radio image of coronal mass ejection; circle indicates the size and location of the Sun. White dots are where radio spectral measurements were made. Bastian, along with Monique Pick, Alain Kerdraon and Dalmiro Maia of the Paris Observatory, and Angelos Vourlidas of the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, D.C., used a solar radio telescope in Nancay, France, to study a coronal mass ejection that occurred on April 20, 1998. Their results will be published in the September 1 edition of the Astrophysical Journal Letters. Coronal mass ejections are powerful magnetic explosions in the Sun's corona, or outer atmosphere, that can blast billions of tons of charged particles into interplanetary space at tremendous speeds. If the ejection is aimed in the direction of Earth, the speeding particles interact with our planet's magnetic field to cause auroral displays, radio-communication blackouts, and potentially damage satellites and electric-power systems. "Coronal mass ejections have been observed for many years, but only with visible-light telescopes, usually in space. While previous radio observations have provided us with powerful diagnostics of mass ejections and associated phenomena in the corona, this is the first time that one has been directly imaged in wavelengths other than visible light," Bastian said. "These new data from the radio observations give us important clues about how these very energetic events work," he added. The radio images show an

  9. A Basis Function Approach to Simulate Storm Surge Events for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wenyan; Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Storm surge is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions, especially when it coincides with other flood producing mechanisms, such as extreme rainfall. Therefore, storm surge has always been a research focus in coastal flood risk assessment. Often numerical models have been developed to understand storm surge events for risk assessment (Kumagai et al. 2016; Li et al. 2016; Zhang et al. 2016) (Bastidas et al. 2016; Bilskie et al. 2016; Dalledonne and Mayerle 2016; Haigh et al. 2014; Kodaira et al. 2016; Lapetina and Sheng 2015), and assess how these events may change or evolve in the future (Izuru et al. 2015; Oey and Chou 2016). However, numeric models often require a lot of input information and difficulties arise when there are not sufficient data available (Madsen et al. 2015). Alternative, statistical methods have been used to forecast storm surge based on historical data (Hashemi et al. 2016; Kim et al. 2016) or to examine the long term trend in the change of storm surge events, especially under climate change (Balaguru et al. 2016; Oh et al. 2016; Rueda et al. 2016). In these studies, often the peak of surge events is used, which result in the loss of dynamic information within a tidal cycle or surge event (i.e. a time series of storm surge values). In this study, we propose an alternative basis function (BF) based approach to examine the different attributes (e.g. peak and durations) of storm surge events using historical data. Two simple two-parameter BFs were used: the exponential function and the triangular function. High quality hourly storm surge record from 15 tide gauges around Australia were examined. It was found that there are significantly location and seasonal variability in the peak and duration of storm surge events, which provides additional insights in coastal flood risk. In addition, the simple form of these BFs allows fast simulation of storm surge events and minimises the complexity of joint probability

  10. Relativistic electron acceleration during HILDCAA events: are precursor CIR magnetic storms important?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hajra, R.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.; Brum, Ch. G. M.; Antunes Vieira, L. E.; Santolík, Ondřej

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 67, Article Number 109 (2015), 109/1-109/11 ISSN 1880-5981 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LH12231 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : HILDCAAs * high-speed streams * CIRs * chorus plasma waves * radiation belt * magnetospheric relativistic electrons * solar wind * geomagnetic storms Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.871, year: 2015

  11. 3DCORE: Forward modeling of solar storm magnetic flux ropes for space weather prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möstl, C.; Amerstorfer, T.; Palmerio, E.; Isavnin, A.; Farrugia, C. J.; Lowder, C.; Winslow, R. M.; Donnerer, J. M.; Kilpua, E. K. J.; Boakes, P. D.

    2018-05-01

    3DCORE forward models solar storm magnetic flux ropes called 3-Dimensional Coronal Rope Ejection (3DCORE). The code is able to produce synthetic in situ observations of the magnetic cores of solar coronal mass ejections sweeping over planets and spacecraft. Near Earth, these data are taken currently by the Wind, ACE and DSCOVR spacecraft. Other suitable spacecraft making these kind of observations carrying magnetometers in the solar wind were MESSENGER, Venus Express, MAVEN, and even Helios.

  12. Solar Decathlon 2002: The Event in Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eastment, M.; Hayter, S.; Nahan, R.; Stafford, B.; Warner, C.; Hancock, E.; Howard, R.

    2004-06-01

    This book describes the first Solar Decathlon, a competition for college and university students, which took place on the National Mall in fall 2002. Student teams competed to design, build, and operate the most attractive, energy-efficient house that used only solar energy. In addition to the competition, the Solar Decathlon was also a public event. The book describes the events on the Mall, including technical details about the ten contests that comprised the competition and descriptions of the public's and the media's responses to the event. The book also provides information about the student teams' activities in the year and a half before they arrived to compete on the Mall.

  13. Atmospheric circulation and storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surkova, Galina V.; Arkhipkin, Victor S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961-2000) and future (2046-2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961-2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961-2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21st century.

  14. Low-dimensionality and predictability of solar wind and global magnetosphere during magnetic storms

    OpenAIRE

    Zivkovic, Tatjana; Rypdal, Kristoffer

    2011-01-01

    This article is part of Tatjana Živkovics' doctoral thesis. Available in Munin at http://hdl.handle.net/10037/3231 The storm index SYM-H, the solar wind velocity v, and interplanetary magnetic field Bz show no signatures of low-dimensional dynamics in quiet periods, but tests for determinism in the time series indicate that SYM-H exhibits a significant low-dimensional component during storm time, suggesting that self-organization takes place during magnetic storms. Even though our analysis...

  15. Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Cai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect

  16. Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Cai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect on average the characteristic time of ring

  17. Detailed Analysis of Solar Data Related to Historical Extreme Geomagnetic Storms: 1868 – 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lefèvre, Laure; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Dumbović, Mateja

    2016-01-01

    An analysis of historical Sun–Earth connection events in the context of the most extreme space weather events of the last ∼ 150 years is presented. To identify the key factors leading to these extreme events, a sample of the most important geomagnetic storms was selected based mainly on the well-...

  18. Chaos game representation of the D st index and prediction of geomagnetic storm events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Z.G.; Anh, V.V.; Wanliss, J.A.; Watson, S.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes a two-dimensional chaos game representation (CGR) for the D st index. The CGR provides an effective method to characterize the multifractality of the D st time series. The probability measure of this representation is then modeled as a recurrent iterated function system in fractal theory, which leads to an algorithm for prediction of a storm event. We present an analysis and modeling of the D st time series over the period 1963-2003. The numerical results obtained indicate that the method is useful in predicting storm events one day ahead

  19. On the statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siscoe, G.L.

    1976-01-01

    The theory of extreme value statistics is applied to the first, second, and third largest geomagnetic storms in nine solar cycles measured by the average half-daily aa indices compiled by Mayaud. Analytic expressions giving the probability of the extremes per solar cycle as a contour function of storm magnitude are obtained by least squares fitting of the observations to the appropriate theoretical extreme value probability functions. The results are used to obtain the statistical characteristics (mode, median, mean, and standard deviation) for the extreme values. The results are applied to find the expected range of extreme values in a set as a function of the number of solar cycles in the set. We find that the expected range of the largest storm is quite narrow and is larger for the second and third largest storms. The observed range of the extreme half-daily aa index for the nine solar cycles is 354--546 γ. In a set of 100 cycles the range is expanded esentially to 311--680γ, an increase of only 39% in the range. The result supports the argument for a change in solar cycle statistics in the latter part of the Seventeenth Century (the Maunder minimum)

  20. Ionospheric response to a recurrent magnetic storm during an event of High Speed Stream in October 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicoli Candido, C. M.; Resende, L.; Becker-Guedes, F.; Batista, I. S.

    2017-12-01

    In this work we investigate the response of the low latitude ionosphere to recurrent geomagnetic activity caused by events of High speed streams (HSSs)/Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) during the low descending phase of solar activity in the solar cycle 24. Intense magnetic field regions called Corotating Interaction Regions or CIRs are created by the interaction of fast streams and slow streams ejected by long duration coronal holes in Sun. This interaction leads to an increase in the mean interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) which causes moderate and recurrent geomagnetic activity when interacts with the Earth's magnetosphere. The ionosphere can be affected by these phenomena by several ways, such as an increase (or decrease) of the plasma ionization, intensification of plasma instabilities during post-sunset/post-midnight hours and subsequent development of plasma irregularities/spread-F, as well as occurrence of plasma scintillation. Therefore, we investigate the low latitude ionospheric response during moderate geomagnetic storm associated to an event of High Speed Stream occurred during decreasing phase of solar activity in 2016. An additional ionization increasing is observed in Es layer during the main peak of the geomagnetic storm. We investigate two possible different mechanisms that caused these extras ionization: the role of prompt penetration of interplanetary electric field, IEFEy at equatorial region, and the energetic electrons precipitation on the E and F layers variations. Finally, we used data from Digisondes installed at equatorial region, São Luís, and at conjugate points in Brazilian latitudes, Boa Vista and Cachoeira Paulista. We analyzed the ionospheric parameters such as the critical frequency of F layer, foF2, the F layer peak height, hmF2, the F layer bottomside, h'F, the blanketing frequency of sporadic layer, fbEs, the virtual height of Es layer h'Es and the top frequency of the Es layer ftEs during this event.

  1. Time Delay Between Dst Index and Magnetic Storm Related Structure in the Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osherovich, Vladimir A.; Fainberg, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    Benson et al. (2015, this volume) selected 10 large magnetic storms, with associated Dst minimum values less than or equal to -100 nT, for which high-latitude topside ionospheric electron density profiles are available from topside-sounder satellites. For these 10 storms, we performed a superposition of Dst and interplanetary parameters B, v, N(sub p) and T(sub p). We have found that two interplanetary parameters, namely B and v, are sufficient to reproduce Dst with correlation coefficient cc approximately 0.96 provided that the interplanetary parameter times are taken 0.15 days earlier than the associated Dst times. Thus we have found which part of the solar wind is responsible for each phase of the magnetic storm. This result is also verified for individual storms as well. The total duration of SRS (storm related structure in the solar wind) is 4 - 5 days which is the same as the associated Dst interval of the magnetic storm.

  2. Identifying Wind and Solar Ramping Events: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.

    2013-01-01

    Wind and solar power are playing an increasing role in the electrical grid, but their inherent power variability can augment uncertainties in power system operations. One solution to help mitigate the impacts and provide more flexibility is enhanced wind and solar power forecasting; however, its relative utility is also uncertain. Within the variability of solar and wind power, repercussions from large ramping events are of primary concern. At the same time, there is no clear definition of what constitutes a ramping event, with various criteria used in different operational areas. Here the Swinging Door Algorithm, originally used for data compression in trend logging, is applied to identify variable generation ramping events from historic operational data. The identification of ramps in a simple and automated fashion is a critical task that feeds into a larger work of 1) defining novel metrics for wind and solar power forecasting that attempt to capture the true impact of forecast errors on system operations and economics, and 2) informing various power system models in a data-driven manner for superior exploratory simulation research. Both allow inference on sensitivities and meaningful correlations, as well as the ability to quantify the value of probabilistic approaches for future use in practice.

  3. Energetic evaluation of the largest geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 on March 17, 2015 and September 8, 2017 during solar maximum and minimum, respectively

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomova, Dimitrinka; Velinov, Peter; Tassev, Yordan; Tomova, Dimitrinka

    2018-01-01

    Some of the most powerful Earth’s directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the current 24 solar cycle have been investigated. These are CMEs on March 15, 2015 and on September 4 and 6, 2017. As a result of these impacts of Sun on Earth, the highest intensity of the geomagnetic storms for the 24th solar cycle is observed. These G4 – Severe geomagnetic storms are in the periods March 17÷19, 2015 and September 7÷10, 2017. We use the solar wind parameters (velocity V, density or concentration N , temperature T p and intensity of the magnetic field B) from measurements by WIND, ACE and SOHO space crafts in the Lagrange equilibrium point L1 between Sun and Earth. We make calculations for the kinetic (dynamic) energy density E k , thermal energy density E t and magnetic energy density E m during the investigated periods May 10÷24, 2015 and September 2÷16, 2017. Both the energy densities for the individual events and the cumulative energy for each of them are evaluated. The quantitative analysis shows that not always the size of the geomagnetic reaction is commensurate with the density of the energy flux reaching the magnetosphere. In both studied periods, the energy densities have different behaviour over time. But for both periods, we can talk about the prognostic effect – with varying degrees of increase of the dynamic and thermal energies. Such an effect is not observed in the density of magnetic energy. An inverse relationship between the magnitude of the density of energies and the effect of Forbush decrease of the galactic cosmic rays is established. Key words: solar activity, flares, coronal mass ejection (CME), G4 –Severe geomagnetic storms, energy density of the solar wind, space weather

  4. SOLAR RADIO TYPE-I NOISE STORM MODULATED BY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwai, K.; Tsuchiya, F.; Morioka, A.; Misawa, H.; Miyoshi, Y.; Masuda, S.; Shimojo, M.; Shiota, D.; Inoue, S.

    2012-01-01

    The first coordinated observations of an active region using ground-based radio telescopes and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) satellites from different heliocentric longitudes were performed to study solar radio type-I noise storms. A type-I noise storm was observed between 100 and 300 MHz during a period from 2010 February 6 to 7. During this period the two STEREO satellites were located approximately 65° (ahead) and –70° (behind) from the Sun-Earth line, which is well suited to observe the earthward propagating coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The radio flux of the type-I noise storm was enhanced after the preceding CME and began to decrease before the subsequent CME. This time variation of the type-I noise storm was directly related to the change of the particle acceleration processes around its source region. Potential-field source-surface extrapolation from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager (SOHO/MDI) magnetograms suggested that there was a multipolar magnetic system around the active region from which the CMEs occurred around the magnetic neutral line of the system. From our observational results, we suggest that the type-I noise storm was activated at a side-lobe reconnection region that was formed after eruption of the preceding CME. This magnetic structure was deformed by a loop expansion that led to the subsequent CME, which then suppressed the radio burst emission.

  5. Validation of modelling the radiation exposure due to solar particle events at aircraft altitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, P.; Bartlett, D. T.; Bilski, P.; Dyer, C.; Flueckiger, E.; Fuller, N.; Lantos, P.; Reitz, G.; Ruehm, W.; Spurny, F.; Taylor, G.; Trompier, F.; Wissmann, F.

    2008-01-01

    Dose assessment procedures for cosmic radiation exposure of aircraft crew have been introduced in most European countries in accordance with the corresponding European directive and national regulations. However, the radiation exposure due to solar particle events is still a matter of scientific research. Here we describe the European research project CONRAD, WP6, Subgroup-B, about the current status of available solar storm measurements and existing models for dose estimation at flight altitudes during solar particle events leading to ground level enhancement (GLE). Three models for the numerical dose estimation during GLEs are discussed. Some of the models agree with limited experimental data reasonably well. Analysis of GLEs during geomagnetically disturbed conditions is still complex and time consuming. Currently available solar particle event models can disagree with each other by an order of magnitude. Further research and verification by on-board measurements is still needed. (authors)

  6. A Novel Ice Storm Experiment for Evaluating the Ecological Impacts of These Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, C. T.; Campbell, J. L.; Rustad, L.; Fahey, T.; Fahey, R. T.; Garlick, S.; Groffman, P.; Hawley, G. J.; Schaberg, P. G.

    2017-12-01

    Ice storms are among the most destructive natural disturbances in some regions of the world, and are an example of an extreme weather event that can profoundly disrupt ecosystem function. Despite potential dire consequences of ice storms on ecosystems and society, we are poorly positioned to predict responses because severe ice storms are infrequent and understudied. Since it is difficult to determine when and where ice storms will occur, most previous research has consisted of ad hoc attempts to characterize impacts in the wake of major icing events. To evaluate ice storm effects in a more controlled manner, we conducted a novel ice storm manipulation experiment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. Water was sprayed above the forest canopy in sub-freezing conditions to simulate a glaze ice event. Treatments included replicate plots that received three levels of radial ice thickness (6, 13, and 19 mm) and reference plots that were not sprayed. Additionally, two of the mid-level treatment plots received ice applications in back-to-back years to evaluate effects associated with ice storm frequency. Measures of the forest canopy, including hemispherical photography, photosynthetically active radiation, and ground-based LiDAR, indicated that the ice loads clearly damaged vegetation and opened up the canopy, allowing more light to penetrate. These changes in the canopy were reflected in measurements of fine and coarse woody debris that were commensurate with the level of icing. Soil respiration declined in the most heavily damaged plots, which we attribute to changes in root activity. Although soil solution nitrogen showed clear seasonal patterns, there was no treatment response. These results differ from the severe regional natural ice storm of 1998, which caused large leaching losses of nitrate in soil solutions and stream water during the growing season after the event, due to lack of uptake by damaged vegetation. It is not yet clear why there

  7. Ionospheric Data Assimilation and Targeted Observation Strategies: Proof of Concept Analysis in a Geomagnetic Storm Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostelich, Eric; Durazo, Juan; Mahalov, Alex

    2017-11-01

    The dynamics of the ionosphere involve complex interactions between the atmosphere, solar wind, cosmic radiation, and Earth's magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms arising from solar activity can perturb these dynamics sufficiently to disrupt radio and satellite communications. Efforts to predict ``space weather,'' including ionospheric dynamics, require the development of a data assimilation system that combines observing systems with appropriate forecast models. This talk will outline a proof-of-concept targeted observation strategy, consisting of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, coupled with the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model, to select optimal locations where additional observations can be made to improve short-term ionospheric forecasts. Initial results using data and forecasts from the geomagnetic storm of 26-27 September 2011 will be described. Work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant Number FA9550-15-1-0096) and by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number DMS-0940314).

  8. Detection and monitoring of two dust storm events by multispectral modis images.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mehta P.S.; Kunte, P.D.

    of Oman, over Arabian Sea to the coast of Pakistan. The dust storm lasted over the Arabian Sea till 30th March. MODIS sensors on both Terra and Aqua Satellites captured images of both events. From the difference in emissive/transmissive nature...

  9. Variation of Magnetic Field (By , Bz Polarity and Statistical Analysis of Solar Wind Parameters during the Magnetic Storm Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ga-Hee Moon

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available It is generally believed that the occurrence of a magnetic storm depends upon the solar wind conditions, particularly the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF component. To understand the relationship between solar wind parameters and magnetic storms, variations in magnetic field polarity and solar wind parameters during magnetic storms are examined. A total of 156 storms during the period of 1997~2003 are used. According to the interplanetary driver, magnetic storms are divided into three types, which are coronal mass ejection (CME-driven storms, co-rotating interaction region (CIR-driven storms, and complicated type storms. Complicated types were not included in this study. For this purpose, the manner in which the direction change of IMF By and Bz components (in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system coordinate during the main phase is related with the development of the storm is examined. The time-integrated solar wind parameters are compared with the time-integrated disturbance storm time (Dst index during the main phase of each magnetic storm. The time lag with the storm size is also investigated. Some results are worth noting: CME-driven storms, under steady conditions of Bz < 0, represent more than half of the storms in number. That is, it is found that the average number of storms for negative sign of IMF Bz (T1~T4 is high, at 56.4%, 53.0%, and 63.7% in each storm category, respectively. However, for the CIR-driven storms, the percentage of moderate storms is only 29.2%, while the number of intense storms is more than half (60.0% under the Bz < 0 condition. It is found that the correlation is highest between the time-integrated IMF Bz and the time-integrated Dst index for the CME-driven storms. On the other hand, for the CIR-driven storms, a high correlation is found, with the correlation coefficient being 0.93, between time-integrated Dst index and time-integrated solar wind speed, while a low correlation, 0.51, is

  10. Great magnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsurutani, B.T.; Yen Te Lee; Tang, F.; Gonzalez, W.D.

    1992-01-01

    The five largest magnetic storms that occurred between 1971 and 1986 are studied to determine their solar and interplanetary causes. All of the events are found to be associated with high speed solar wind streams led by collisionless shocks. The high speed streams are clearly related to identifiable solar flares. It is found that (1) it is the extreme values of the southward interplanetary magnetic fields rather than solar wind speeds that are the primary causes of great magnetic storms, (2) shocked and draped sheath fields preceding the driver gas (magnetic cloud) are at least as effective in causing the onset of great magnetic storms (3 of 5 events ) as the strong fields within the driver gas itself, and (3) precursor southward fields ahead of the high speed streams allow the shock compression mechanism (item 2) to be particularly geoeffective

  11. EERE Showcase Event (Solar Decathlon 2015)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tolles, Eric [Orange County Great Park Corporation, Irvine, CA (United States)

    2016-04-15

    The goal of the Orange County Great Park Corporation (Great Park) is to successfully host the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon 2015. In furtherance of that goal, tasks to be performed within the current reporting period include the following: Task 1.0 Arrange Site Team Visits for January 2015 The Great Park arranged appropriate meeting space for the site team visits over a three-day period, January 8, 2015 through January 10, 2015. Instead of a meeting in Hanger 244, the DOE requested a different meeting space. The working team met in the Operations offices on January 8th. The student teams were welcomed at the City of Irvine’s Lakeview Senior Center on January 9th, and came back on January 10th for breakout sessions. Task 2.0 Outreach Activities The following outreach activities related to the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon 2015 occurred during and prior to the event: • Promoted the return of the Solar Decathlon 2015 on the City’s website. (cityofirvine.org) • Promoted the return of the Solar Decathlon 2015 through the City’s and Great Park’s social media channels, including Facebook and Twitter. (facebook.com/cityofirvine, facebook.com/orangecountygreatpark, twitter.com/City_of_Irvine, twitter.com/ocgreatpark) • Promoted the return of the Solar Decathlon 2015 and student visit through a City Council Announcement. • Worked to set-up meetings between the U.S. Department of Energy team and potential donors/key stakeholders in Irvine. • Began ICTV filming and coverage of the Solar Decathlon 2015 teams. This includes student team interviews, interview with Richard King and b-roll footage. • Facilitated an interview with Sarah Farrar and the Orange County Register during the recent student visit in January • Information in May was provided to Irvine Unified School District and Tustin Unified School District promoting the three Education Days that the DOE will host during the event. More DOE information is due in August, which

  12. Probabilistic Models for Solar Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, W. F.; Xapsos, M. A.; Welton, A. M.

    2009-01-01

    Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.

  13. The Meteorology of Storms that Produce Narrow Bipolar Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Timothy; McCaul, Bill; Fuchs, Brody; Cummer, Steve

    2013-01-01

    Narrow Bipolar Event's (NBE) are compact ( 10 kW in VHF), and impulsive (approx 10 micro s) electrical discharges in thunderstorms, also known as compact intracloud discharges (CIDs). Can be either positive or negative polarity and have distinctive broadband waveform signatures sometimes confused for +CGs in the past by NLDN and other networks. NBEs are related to lightning but are likely optically "dark". As revealed by VHF sensors (both satellite and ground): (1) The most powerful lightning-­-related VHF sources observed (2) Tend to occur at the beginning of intracloud discharges (3) Difficult to estimate altitude properly due to receiver saturation.

  14. Interplanetary radio storms. II - Emission levels and solar wind speed in the range 0.05-0.8 AU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bougeret, J.-L.; Fainberg, J.; Stone, R. G.

    1984-01-01

    Storms of interplanetary type III radio bursts (IP storms) are commonly observed in the interplanetary medium by the ISEE-3 radio instrument. This instrument has the capability of accurately determining the arrival direction of the radio emission. At each observing frequency, the storm radio sources are tracked as they cross the line-of-sight to the sun. Using a simple model, the emission levels are determined at a number of radio frequencies for four separate storms. The IP storm radiation is found to occur in regions of enhanced density at levels of 0.05 to 0.8 AU. The density in these enhancements falls off faster than R(-2). The solar wind speed in the storm region is also measured. The analysis is consistent with steady conditions in the storm region during a few days around the III storm burst radio emission at the harmonic of the local plasma frequency.

  15. Characteristics and conditions of production of transient luminous events observed over a maritime storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soula, S.; van der Velde, O.; Palmiéri, J.

    2010-01-01

    On the night of 15/16 November 2007, cameras in southern France detected 30 transient luminous events (TLEs) over a storm located in the Corsican region (France). Among these TLEs, 19 were sprites, 6 were halos, and 5 were elves. For 26 of them, a positive “parent” cloud-to-ground lightning (P...... in a sequence had much lower peak currents. Several triangulated sprites were found to be shifted from their P+CG flashes by about 10 to 50 km and preferentially downstream. The observations suggest that the P+CG flashes can initiate both sprites and other CG flashes in a storm....

  16. Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

    for tide gauge measurements, with 120 years of data available for the calculations. However, the oldest of these tide gauge stations was set up after a major storm surge in 1872, and no events of similar severity have occurred since. Including the evidence of the historic events from the 18th century...... changes the return period statistics, with a best estimate of a 100 year event changing from 1.5 meters (Sørensen et al. 2013) to 2.6 [2.2 – 2.8] meters (present study) in Køge just south of Copenhagen. Thus, with the tide gauge-based statistics, the storm surge on January 4 2017 was a 100 year event......, but with the revised statistics using historic evidence, much larger events can be expected. Further, we assess the very large impact of sea level rise on the storm surge statistics. As an example, according to the official statistics of southern Copenhagen, the flooding of a present day 100 year event...

  17. Ionospheric Storm Effects and Equatorial Plasma Irregularities During the 17-18 March 2015 Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun-Liang; Luhr, Hermann; Xiong, Chao; Pfaff, Robert F.

    2016-01-01

    The intense magnetic storm on 17-18 March 2015 caused large disturbances of the ionosphere. Based on the plasma density (Ni) observations performed by the Swarm fleet of satellites, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission, and the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite, we characterize the storm-related perturbations at low latitudes. All these satellites sampled the ionosphere in morning and evening time sectors where large modifications occurred. Modifications of plasma density are closely related to changes of the solar wind merging electric field (E (sub m)). We consider two mechanisms, prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) and disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF), as the main cause for the Ni redistribution, but effects of meridional wind are also taken into account. At the start of the storm main phase, the PPEF is enhancing plasma density on the dayside and reducing it on the nightside. Later, DDEF takes over and causes the opposite reaction. Unexpectedly, there appears during the recovery phase a strong density enhancement in the morning/pre-noon sector and a severe Ni reduction in the afternoon/evening sector, and we suggest a combined effect of vertical plasma drift, and meridional wind is responsible for these ionospheric storm effects. Different from earlier studies about this storm, we also investigate the influence of storm dynamics on the initiation of equatorial plasma irregularities (EPIs). Shortly after the start of the storm main phase, EPIs appear in the post-sunset sector. As a response to a short-lived decline of E (sub m), EPI activity appears in the early morning sector. Following the second start of the main phase, EPIs are generated for a few hours in the late evening sector. However, for the rest of the storm main phase, no more EPIs are initiated for more than 12 hours. Only after the onset of recovery phase does EPI activity start again in the post-midnight sector, lasting more than 7 hours

  18. What is the Relationship between the Solar Wind and Storms/Substorms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairfield, D. H.; Burlaga, L. F.

    1999-01-01

    The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) carried past the Earth by the solar wind has long been known to be the principal quantity that controls geomagnetic storms and substorms. Intervals of strong southward IMF with durations of at least a significant fraction of a day produce storms, while more typical, shorter intervals of less-intense southward fields produce substorms. The strong, long-duration southward fields are generally associated with coronal mass ejections and magnetic clouds or else they are produced by interplanetary dynamics initiated by fast solar wind flows that compress preexisting southward fields. Smaller, short-duration southward fields that occur on most days are related to long period waves, turbulence, or random variations in the IMF. Southward IMF enhances dayside reconnection between the IMF and the Earth's dipole with the reconnected field lines supplementing open field lines of the geomagnetic tail and producing an expanded polar cap and increased tail energy. Although the frequent storage of solar wind energy and its release during substorms is the most common mode of solar wind/magnetosphere interaction, under certain circumstances, steady southward IMF seems to produce intervals of relatively steady magnetosphere convection without substorms. During these latter times, the inner magnetosphere remains in a stressed tail-like state while the more distant magnetotail has larger northward field and more dipolar-like field lines. Recent evidence suggests that enhanced magnetosphere particle densities associated with enhanced solar wind densities allow more particles to be accelerated for the ring current, thus creating larger storms.

  19. Solar flares, CMEs and solar energetic particle events during solar cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, Bimal; Pande, Seema; Chandra, Ramesh; Chandra Mathpal, Mahesh

    2018-01-01

    We present here a study of Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEPs) associated with solar flares during 2010-2014 in solar cycle 24. We have selected the flare events (≥GOES M-class), which produced SEPs. The SEPs are classified into three categories i.e. weak (proton intensity ≤ 1 pfu), minor (1 pfu pfu) and major (proton intensity ≥ 10 pfu). We used the GOES data for the SEP events which have intensity greater than one pfu and SOHO/ERNE data for the SEP event less than one pfu intensity. In addition to the flare and SEP properties, we have also discussed different properties of associated CMEs.

  20. Solute Response To Arid-Climate Managed-River Flow During Storm Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, B.; Shock, E.

    2006-12-01

    Storm pulses are widely used in unmanaged, temperate and subtropical river systems to resolve in-stream surface and subsurface flow components. Resulting catchment-scale hydrochemical mixing models yield insight into mechanisms of solute transport. Managed systems are far more complicated due to the human need for high quality water resources, which drives processes that are superimposed on most, if not all, of the unmanaged components. As an example, an increasingly large portion of the water supply for the Phoenix metropolitan area is derived from multiple surface water sources that are impounded, diverted and otherwise managed upstream from the urban core that consumes the water and produces anthropogenic impacts. During large storm events this managed system is perturbed towards natural behavior as it receives inputs from natural hydrologic pathways in addition to impervious surfaces and storm water drainage channels. Our goals in studying managed river systems during this critical transition state are to determine how the well- characterized behavior of natural systems break down as the system responds then returns to its managed state. Using storm events as perturbations we can contrast an arid managed system with the unmanaged system it approaches during the storm event. In the process, we can extract geochemical consequences specifically related to unknown urban components in the form of chemical fingerprints. The effects of river management on solute behavior were assessed by taking advantage of several anomalously heavy winter storm events in late 2004 and early 2005 using a rigorous sampling routine. Several hundred samples collected between January and October 2005 were analyzed for major ion, isotopic, and trace metal concentrations with 78 individual measurements for each sample. The data are used to resolve managed watershed processes, mechanisms of solute transport and river mixing from anthropogenic inputs. Our results show that concentrations of

  1. Dynamics of the Solar Wind Electromagnetic Energy Transmission Into Magnetosphere during Large Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Tamara; Laptukhov, Alexej; Petrov, Valery

    Causes of the geomagnetic activity (GA) in the report are divided into temporal changes of the solar wind parameters and the changes of the geomagnetic moment orientation relative directions of the solar wind electric and magnetic fields. Based on our previous study we concluded that a reconnection based on determining role of mutual orientation of the solar wind electric field and geomagnetic moment taking into account effects of the Earth's orbital and daily motions is the most effective compared with existing mechanisms. At present a reconnection as paradigma that has applications in broad fields of physics needs analysis of experimental facts to be developed. In terms of reconnection it is important not only mutual orientation of vectors describing physics of interaction region but and reconnection rate which depends from rate of energy flux to those regions where the reconnection is permitted. Applied to magnetosphere these regions first of all are dayside magnetopause and polar caps. Influence of rate of the energy flux to the lobe magnetopause (based on calculations of the Poyting electromagnetic flux component controlling the reconnection rate along the solar wind velocity Pv) on planetary GA (Dst, Kp indices) is investigated at different phases of geomagnetic storms. We study also the rate of energy flux to the polar caps during storms (based on calculations of the Poyting flux vector component along the geomagnetic moment Pm) and its influence on magnetic activity in the polar ionosphere: at the auroral zone (AU,AL indices). Results allow to evaluate contributions of high and low latitude sources of electromagnetic energy to the storm development and also to clear mechanism of the electromagnetic energy transmission from the solar wind to the magnetosphere. We evaluate too power of the solar wind electromagnetic energy during well-known large storms and compare result with power of the energy sources of other geophysical processes (atmosphere, ocean

  2. Water quality of storm runoff and comparison of procedures for estimating storm-runoff loads, volume, event-mean concentrations, and the mean load for a storm for selected properties and constituents for Colorado Springs, southeastern Colorado, 1992

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Guerard, Paul; Weiss, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires that municipalities that have a population of 100,000 or greater obtain National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permits to characterize the quality of their storm runoff. In 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Springs City Engineering Division, began a study to characterize the water quality of storm runoff and to evaluate procedures for the estimation of storm-runoff loads, volume and event-mean concentrations for selected properties and constituents. Precipitation, streamflow, and water-quality data were collected during 1992 at five sites in Colorado Springs. Thirty-five samples were collected, seven at each of the five sites. At each site, three samples were collected for permitting purposes; two of the samples were collected during rainfall runoff, and one sample was collected during snowmelt runoff. Four additional samples were collected at each site to obtain a large enough sample size to estimate storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations for selected properties and constituents using linear-regression procedures developed using data from the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program (NURP). Storm-water samples were analyzed for as many as 186 properties and constituents. The constituents measured include total-recoverable metals, vola-tile-organic compounds, acid-base/neutral organic compounds, and pesticides. Storm runoff sampled had large concentrations of chemical oxygen demand and 5-day biochemical oxygen demand. Chemical oxygen demand ranged from 100 to 830 milligrams per liter, and 5.-day biochemical oxygen demand ranged from 14 to 260 milligrams per liter. Total-organic carbon concentrations ranged from 18 to 240 milligrams per liter. The total-recoverable metals lead and zinc had the largest concentrations of the total-recoverable metals analyzed. Concentrations of lead ranged from 23 to 350 micrograms per liter, and concentrations of zinc ranged from 110

  3. The Future of Geomagnetic Storm Predictions: Implications from Recent Solar and Interplanetary Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, B. T.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    1995-01-01

    Within the last 7-8 years, there has been a substantial growth in out knowledge of the solar and interplanetary causes of geomagnetic storms at Earth. This review article will not attempt to cover all of the work done during this period. This can be found elsewhere. Our emphasis here will be on recent efforts that expose important, presently unanswered questions that must be addressed and solved before true predictability of storms can be possible. Hopefully, this article will encourage some readers to join this effort and perhaps make major contributions to the field.

  4. IDF relationships using bivariate copula for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariff, N. M.; Jemain, A. A.; Ibrahim, K.; Wan Zin, W. Z.

    2012-11-01

    SummaryIntensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are used in many hydrologic designs for the purpose of water managements and flood preventions. The IDF curves available in Malaysia are those obtained from univariate analysis approach which only considers the intensity of rainfalls at fixed time intervals. As several rainfall variables are correlated with each other such as intensity and duration, this paper aims to derive IDF points for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia by means of bivariate frequency analysis. This is achieved through utilizing the relationship between storm intensities and durations using the copula method. Four types of copulas; namely the Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Frank, Gaussian and Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) copulas are considered because the correlation between storm intensity, I, and duration, D, are negative and these copulas are appropriate when the relationship between the variables are negative. The correlations are attained by means of Kendall's τ estimation. The analysis was performed on twenty rainfall stations with hourly data across Peninsular Malaysia. Using Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) for testing goodness-of-fit, both Frank and Gaussian copulas are found to be suitable to represent the relationship between I and D. The IDF points found by the copula method are compared to the IDF curves yielded based on the typical IDF empirical formula of the univariate approach. This study indicates that storm intensities obtained from both methods are in agreement with each other for any given storm duration and for various return periods.

  5. SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS OF SOLAR FLARES AND SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cliver, E. W.; Ling, A. G.; Belov, A.; Yashiro, S.

    2012-01-01

    We suggest that the flatter size distribution of solar energetic proton (SEP) events relative to that of flare soft X-ray (SXR) events is primarily due to the fact that SEP flares are an energetic subset of all flares. Flares associated with gradual SEP events are characteristically accompanied by fast (≥1000 km s –1 ) coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive coronal/interplanetary shock waves. For the 1996-2005 interval, the slopes (α values) of power-law size distributions of the peak 1-8 Å fluxes of SXR flares associated with (a) >10 MeV SEP events (with peak fluxes ≥1 pr cm –2 s –1 sr –1 ) and (b) fast CMEs were ∼1.3-1.4 compared to ∼1.2 for the peak proton fluxes of >10 MeV SEP events and ∼2 for the peak 1-8 Å fluxes of all SXR flares. The difference of ∼0.15 between the slopes of the distributions of SEP events and SEP SXR flares is consistent with the observed variation of SEP event peak flux with SXR peak flux.

  6. Water quality during storm events from two constructed wetlands receiving mine drainage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stark, L.R.; Brooks, R.P.; Williams, F.M.; Stevens, S.E. Jr.; Davis, L.K.

    1994-01-01

    Flow rates, pH, iron concentration, and manganese concentration were measured during several storm event at two constructed wetlands receiving mine water. During a substantial rain event, flow rates at both the wetland outlets surpassed flow rates at the wetland inlets, reflecting incident rainfall and differences in wetland area at the two sites. A significant positive correlation existed between local rainfall and outflow rates at the larger wetland, but not between rainfall and inflow rates. During storm events, outlet pH, relative to inlet pH, was slightly elevated at the larger wetland, and depressed at the smaller wetland. However, over the course of one year, rainfall was uncorrelated to outlet pH in the larger wetland. A substantial rain event at the smaller wetland resulted in a temporary elevation in outlet iron concentrations, with treatment efficiency reduced to near zero. However, in the larger wetland, outlet iron concentrations were not significantly affected by storm events. 14 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

  7. Storm event-scale nutrient attenuation in constructed wetlands experiencing a Mediterranean climate: A comparison of a surface flow and hybrid surface-subsurface flow system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adyel, Tanveer M; Oldham, Carolyn E; Hipsey, Matthew R

    2017-11-15

    Among different Water Sensitive Urban Design options, constructed wetlands (CWs) are used to protect and restore downstream water quality by attenuating nutrients generated by stormwater runoff. This research compared the nutrient attenuation ability during a diverse population of storm events of two CWs: (a) a hybrid CW with multiple alternating surface flow (SF) and laterite-based subsurface flow (SSF) compartments, and (b) a single stage SF CW. Within-storm variability, nutrient concentrations were assessed at 2 to 3-h intervals at both the main inlet and outlet of each CW. Dissolved oxygen concentrations of the surface waters were also monitored at 10-min intervals using high frequency in situ sensors. Nutrient loads into the CWs were observed to be higher when a high rainfall event occurred, particularly after longer antecedent dry conditions. Longer hydraulic retention times promoted higher attenuation at both sites. However, the relative extent of nutrient attenuation differed between the CW types; the mean total nitrogen (TN) attenuation in the hybrid and SF CW was 45 and 48%, respectively. The hybrid CW attenuated 67% total phosphorus (TP) loads on average, while the SF CW acted as a net TP source. Periodic storm events transitioned the lentic CW into a lotic CW and caused riparian zone saturation; it was therefore hypothesized that such saturation of organic matter rich-riparian zones led to release of TP in the system. The hybrid CW attenuated the released TP in the downstream laterite-based SSF compartments. Diel oxygen metabolism calculated before and after the storm events was found to be strongly correlated with water temperature, solar exposure and antecedent dry condition during the pre-storm conditions. Furthermore, the SF CW showed a significant relationship between overall nutrient load attenuation and the change in oxygen metabolism during the storm perturbation, suggesting oxygen variation could be a useful proxy indicator of CW function

  8. Classification and quantification of solar wind driver gases leading to intense geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adekoya, B. J.; Chukwuma, V. U.

    2018-01-01

    Classification and quantification of the interplanetary structures causing intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) that occurred during 1997-2016 are studied. The subject of this consists of solar wind parameters of seventy-three intense storms that are associated with the southward interplanetary magnetic field. About 30.14% of the storms were driven by a combination of the sheath and ejecta (S + E), magnetic clouds (MC) and sheath field (S) are 26% each, 10.96% by combined sheath and MCs (S + C), while 5.48% of the storms were driven by ejecta (E) alone. Therefore, we want to aver that for storms driven by: (1) S + E. The Bz is high (≥10 nT), high density (ρ) (>10 N/cm3), high plasma beta (β) (>0.8), and unspecified (i.e. high or low) structure of the plasma temperature (T) and the flow speed (V); (2) MC. The Bz is ≥10 nT, low temperature (T ≤ 400,000 K), low ρ (≤10 N/cm3), high V (≥450 km), and low β (≤0.8); (3) The structures of S + C are similar to that of MC except that the V is low (V ≤ 450 km); (4) S. The Bz is high, low T, high ρ, unspecified V, and low β; and (5) E. Is when the structures are directly opposite of the one driven by MCs except for high V. Although, westward ring current indicates intense storms, but the large intensity of geomagnetic storms is determined by the intense nature of the electric field strength and the Bz. Therefore, great storms (i.e. Dst ≤ -200 nT) are manifestation of high electric field strength (≥13 mV/m).

  9. Spatiotemporal Interpolation Methods for Solar Event Trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filali Boubrahimi, Soukaina; Aydin, Berkay; Schuh, Michael A.; Kempton, Dustin; Angryk, Rafal A.; Ma, Ruizhe

    2018-05-01

    This paper introduces four spatiotemporal interpolation methods that enrich complex, evolving region trajectories that are reported from a variety of ground-based and space-based solar observatories every day. Our interpolation module takes an existing solar event trajectory as its input and generates an enriched trajectory with any number of additional time–geometry pairs created by the most appropriate method. To this end, we designed four different interpolation techniques: MBR-Interpolation (Minimum Bounding Rectangle Interpolation), CP-Interpolation (Complex Polygon Interpolation), FI-Interpolation (Filament Polygon Interpolation), and Areal-Interpolation, which are presented here in detail. These techniques leverage k-means clustering, centroid shape signature representation, dynamic time warping, linear interpolation, and shape buffering to generate the additional polygons of an enriched trajectory. Using ground-truth objects, interpolation effectiveness is evaluated through a variety of measures based on several important characteristics that include spatial distance, area overlap, and shape (boundary) similarity. To our knowledge, this is the first research effort of this kind that attempts to address the broad problem of spatiotemporal interpolation of solar event trajectories. We conclude with a brief outline of future research directions and opportunities for related work in this area.

  10. SOLAR SOURCES OF 3He-RICH SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS IN SOLAR CYCLE 24

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitta, Nariaki V.; Mason, Glenn M.; Wang, Linghua; Cohen, Christina M. S.; Wiedenbeck, Mark E.

    2015-01-01

    Using high-cadence EUV images obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we investigate the solar sources of 26 3 He-rich solar energetic particle events at ≲1 MeV nucleon −1 that were well-observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer during solar cycle 24. Identification of the solar sources is based on the association of 3 He-rich events with type III radio bursts and electron events as observed by Wind. The source locations are further verified in EUV images from the Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory, which provides information on solar activities in the regions not visible from the Earth. Based on AIA observations, 3 He-rich events are not only associated with coronal jets as emphasized in solar cycle 23 studies, but also with more spatially extended eruptions. The properties of the 3 He-rich events do not appear to be strongly correlated with those of the source regions. As in the previous studies, the magnetic connection between the source region and the observer is not always reproduced adequately by the simple potential field source surface model combined with the Parker spiral. Instead, we find a broad longitudinal distribution of the source regions extending well beyond the west limb, with the longitude deviating significantly from that expected from the observed solar wind speed

  11. Polarimetric signatures indicative of severe storm development - the Pentecost event 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troemel, Silke; Diederich, Malte; Evaristo, Raquel; Ryzhkov, Alexander; Simmer, Clemens

    2015-04-01

    The 2014 Pentecost weekend storms in Europe were a series of severe supercell storms which followed a heatwave in early June 2014, resulting from a Spanish plume synoptic weather pattern. Outbreaks of severe weather were reported from these storm developments with the worst damages occurring over the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia on 9 June, where the storm was described as one of the most violent in decades by the German weather service (DWD). During this event six fatalities, wind gusts up to 150km/h, hail and a flash flood in Düsseldorf has been reported. Monitoring and analysis of high-impact weather using weather radars of shorter wavelength (X- and C-bands) requires special methods, i.e. anomalous high attenuation and differential attenuation due to very large raindrops originating from melting large hail has to be investigated and corrected. During the Pentecost event a record breaking ZDR bias of up to -25dB has been observed. Different strategies for reliable attenuation correction and rainfall estimation for this extreme event are explored and will be presented. A national 3D composite of polarimetric moments covering Germany with 1km horizontal, 250m vertical, and 5 minutes temporal resolution has been generated. 10 C-band radars from the DWD radar network, recently upgraded to polarimetry, have been included. Meanie3D, a 3D scale space tracking algorithm, is applied to the composite to investigate the magnitudes and temporal development of the 3 fundamental steps of a storms lifecycle: 1) high values of differential reflectivity ZDR aloft first indicate a developing cell, 2) ZDR-columns (these are vertical columns of high differential reflectivity) then indicate the updraft zone of a cell in the mature state. The vertical extent of the ZDR-column is thus a measure of the strength of the updraft and for the ensuing rainfall enhancement. 3) The very first big drops reach the surface before the most intense rain begins. This is reflected by the

  12. Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with SSC over Year of Solar Maximum during Cycle 23: 1. Identification of Related Sun-Earth Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grison, B.; Bocchialini, K.; Menvielle, M.; Chambodut, A.; Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Fontaine, D.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Regnier, S.; Zouganelis, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Taking the 32 sudden storm commencements (SSC) listed by the observatory de l'Ebre / ISGI over the year 2002 (maximal solar activity) as a starting point, we performed a statistical analysis of the related solar sources, solar wind signatures, and terrestrial responses. For each event, we characterized and identified, as far as possible, (i) the sources on the Sun (Coronal Mass Ejections -CME-), with the help of a series of herafter detailed criteria (velocities, drag coefficient, radio waves, polarity), as well as (ii) the structure and properties in the interplanetary medium, at L1, of the event associated to the SSC: magnetic clouds -MC-, non-MC interplanetary coronal mass ejections -ICME-, co-rotating/stream interaction regions -SIR/CIR-, shocks only and unclear events that we call "miscellaneous" events. The categorization of the events at L1 is made on published catalogues. For each potential CME/L1 event association we compare the velocity observed at L1 with the one observed at the Sun and the estimated balistic velocity. Observations of radio emissions (Type II, Type IV detected from the ground and /or by WIND) associated to the CMEs make the solar source more probable. We also compare the polarity of the magnetic clouds with the hemisphere of the solar source. The drag coefficient (estimated with the drag-based model) is calculated for each potential association and it is compared to the expected range values. We identified a solar source for 26 SSC related events. 12 of these 26 associations match all criteria. We finally discuss the difficulty to perform such associations.

  13. Dynamical Changes Induced by the Solar Proton Events in October-November 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, C. H.; Roble, R. G.; Fleming, E. L.

    2006-05-01

    The very large solar storms in October-November 2003 caused solar proton events (SPEs) at the Earth and impacted the upper atmospheric polar cap regions. The Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Mode (TIME-GCM) was used to study the atmospheric dynamical influence of the solar protons that occurred in Oct-Nov 2003, the fourth largest period of SPEs measured in the past 40 years. The highly energetic solar protons caused ionization and changes in the electric field, which led to Joule heating of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. This heating led to temperature increases up to 4K in the upper mesosphere. The solar proton-induced ionization, as well as dissociation processes, led to the production of odd hydrogen (HOx) and odd nitrogen (NOy). Substantial (>40%) short-lived ozone decreases followed these enhancements of HOx and NOy and led to a cooling of the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. This cooling led to temperature decreases up to 2.5K. The solar proton-caused temperature changes led to maximum meridional and zonal wind variations of +/- 2 m/s on background winds up to +/- 30 m/s. The solar proton-induced wind perturbations were computed to taper off over a period of several days past the SPEs. Solar cycle 23 was accompanied by ten very large SPEs between 1998 and 2005, along with numerous smaller events. These solar proton-driven atmospheric variations need to be carefully considered when examining other polar changes.

  14. The solar wind control of electron fluxes in geostationary orbit during magnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popov, G.V.; Degtyarev, V.I.; Sheshukov, S.S.; Chudnenko, S.E.

    1999-01-01

    The dynamics of electron fluxes (with energies from 30 to 1360 keV) in geostationary orbit during magnetic storms was investigated on the basis of LANL spacecraft 1976-059 and 1977-007 data. Thirty-seven magnetic storms with distinct onsets from the time interval July 1976-December 1978 were used in the analysis. A treatment of experimental data involved the moving averaging and the overlapping epoch method. The smoothed component of electron fluxes represents mainly trapped electrons and shows their strong dependence on the solar wind velocity. The time lag between a smoothed electron flux and the solar wind velocity increases with electron energy reflecting dynamics of the inner magnetosphere filling with trapped energetic electrons originating from substorm injection regions located not far outside geostationary orbit

  15. Mean occurrence frequency and temporal risk analysis of solar particle events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.

    2006-01-01

    The protection of astronauts from space radiation is required on future exploratory class and long-duration missions. For the accurate projections of radiation doses, a solar cycle statistical model, which quantifies the progression level within the cycle, has been developed. The resultant future cycle projection is then applied to estimate the mean frequency of solar particle events (SPEs) in the near future using a power law function of sunspot number. Detailed temporal behaviors of the recent large event and two historically large events of the August 1972 SPE and the November 1960 SPE are analyzed for dose-rate and cumulative dose equivalent at sensitive organs. Polyethylene shielded 'storm shelters' inside spacecraft are studied to limit astronauts' total exposure at a sensitive site within 10 cSv from a large event as a potential goal that fulfills the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) requirement

  16. The statistical analysis of the Geomagnetically Induced Current events occurred in Guangdong, China during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2003–2006)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Y. Y.

    2018-03-01

    We study the interplanetary causes of intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) and the corresponding Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) events occurred in Ling’ao nuclear power station, Guangdong during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2003–2006). The result shows that sMC (a magnetic cloud with a shock), SH (sheath) and SH+MC (a sheath followed by a magnetic cloud) are the three most common interplanetary structures responsible for the storms which will cause GIC events in this period. As an interplanetary structure, CIR (corotating interaction regions) also plays an important role, however, the CIR-driven storms have a relatively minor effect to the GIC. Among the interplanetary parameters, the solar wind velocity and the southward component of the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) are more important than solar wind density and the temperature to a geomagnetic storm and GIC.

  17. The mobilization of hazardous elements after a tropical storm event in a polluted estuary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez-Iruretagoiena, Azibar, E-mail: azibar.rodriguez@ehu.es [Department of Analytical Chemistry, University of the Basque Country, P.O. Box 664, 48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Fdez Ortiz de Vallejuelo, Silvia; Diego, Alberto de [Department of Analytical Chemistry, University of the Basque Country, P.O. Box 664, 48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Leão, Felipe B. de; Medeiros, Diego de; Oliveira, Marcos L.S.; Tafarel, Silvio R. [Environmental Science and Nanotechnology Department, Institute of Environmental Research and Human Development — IPADH, Capivari de Baixo, Santa Catarina (Brazil); Arana, Gorka; Madariaga, Juan Manuel [Department of Analytical Chemistry, University of the Basque Country, P.O. Box 664, 48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Silva, Luis F.O., E-mail: felipeqma@hotmail.com [Environmental Science and Nanotechnology Department, Institute of Environmental Research and Human Development — IPADH, Capivari de Baixo, Santa Catarina (Brazil)

    2016-09-15

    The Tubarão River (Santa Catarina, Brazil) is affected by hazardous elements (HEs) pollution from abandoned coal mines, agricultural activities, urban discharges, industrial and leisure zones, etc. In order to study the distribution and sources of HEs contamination in a polluted estuary after a tropical storm, waters and surface sediments were collected from 15 sampling sites along the Tubarão River. The concentration of 24 elements (Ag, Al, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, Sn, Sr, Ti, Tl, V, W, and Zn) were measured by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) and the mineralogical composition of the sediments by Raman spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The metal concentrations in water and sediment showed wide spatial variation due to the variability in water discharges and anthropogenic inputs after a storm. In general, higher metal concentration in water and lower in sediments were found upstream (closer to coal mining). Downstream sampling sites and the Oratorio River sampling site (one of the eight tributaries of the estuary) showed the highest values in sediment samples. Normalized and Weighed Average Concentrations (NWAC) were calculated, which allow us to identify, in a very simple way, the sampling sites of higher concern (hotspots of contamination) in the studied area. NWAC suggested that the strong rainfall events could affect to the metal distribution in sediments. The results of this study were compared with a previous study in the same area during dry season by Principal Component Analysis (PCA), showing changes in environmental pollution of the sediment after a strong storm event. - Highlights: • The highest water HEs concentrations were identified in the sampling sites closest to the coal mines. • The presence of gypsum downstream is due to the remobilisation of upstream sediments by storm flow. • The HEs composition of the Tubarao River sediments changes due to strong rainfall events.

  18. Extreme Geomagnetic Storms – 1868–2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Lefèvre, L.; Dumbović, M.

    2016-01-01

    presents our investigation of the corresponding solar eventsand their characteristics. The storms were selected based on their intensity in the aa index,which constitutes the longest existing continuous series of geomagnetic activity. They areanalyzed statistically in the context of more well...... occurring in May 1921 and the Quebec storm from March 1989. We identifykey characteristics of the storms by combining several different available data sources, listsof storm sudden commencements (SSCs) signifying occurrence of interplanetary shocks,solar wind in-situ measurements, neutron monitor data...... %), Forbushdecreases (100 %), and energetic solar proton events (70 %). A quantitative comparison ofthese associations relative to less intense storms is also presented. Most notably, we findthat most often the extreme storms are characterized by a complexity that is associated with multiple, often interacting, solar...

  19. Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hosek

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event.

    The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.

  20. Concentration-Discharge Responses to Storm Events in Coastal California Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilera, Rosana; Melack, John M.

    2018-01-01

    Storm events in montane catchments are the main cause of mobilization of solutes and particulates into and within stream channels in coastal California. Nonlinear behavior of nutrients and suspended sediments during storms is evident in the hysteresis that arises in concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships. We examined patterns in the C-Q hysteresis of nutrients (NO3-, NH4+, DON, and PO43-) and total suspended solids (TSS) during storms across 10 sites and water years 2002-2015 by quantifying the slope of the C-Q relationship and the rotational pattern of the hysteresis loop. We observed several hysteresis types in the ˜400 storms included in our study. Concentrations of constituents associated with sediment transport (PO43- and TSS) peaked during high flows. Conversely, nitrogen species had hysteretic responses such as dilution with clockwise rotation in urban sites and enrichment with anticlockwise rotation in undeveloped sites. The wide range of C-Q responses that occurred among sites and seasons reflected the variable hydrological and biogeochemical characteristics of catchments and storms. Responses for nitrate in nested catchments differed in slope and rotation of C-Q hysteresis. Upland undeveloped and lowland urban sites had anticlockwise rotation at the onset of the rainy season following a dry year, which implied a delay in the transport of this solute to the streams. Slopes by the middle of the rainy season showed that the urban site switched from dilution to enrichment, and then again to dilution with clockwise rotation at the end of the season, which implied high initial concentrations and proximal sources.

  1. Water quantity and quality response of a green roof to storm events: Experimental and monitoring observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Corey M G; Todorov, Dimitar; Driscoll, Charles T; Montesdeoca, Mario

    2016-11-01

    Syracuse, New York is working under a court-ordered agreement to limit combined sewer overflows (CSO) to local surface waters. Green infrastructure technologies, including green roofs, are being implemented as part of a CSO abatement strategy and to develop co-benefits of diminished stormwater runoff, including decreased loading of contaminants to the wastewater system and surface waters. The objective of this study was to examine the quantity and quality of discharge associated with precipitation events over an annual cycle from a green roof in Syracuse, NY and to compare measurements from this monitoring program with results from a roof irrigation experiment. Wet deposition, roof drainage, and water quality were measured for 87 storm events during an approximately 12 month period over 2011-2012. Water and nutrient (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and dissolved organic carbon) mass balances were conducted on an event basis to evaluate retention annually and during the growing and non-growing seasons. These results are compared with a hydrological manipulation experiment, which comprised of artificially watering of the roof. Loadings of nutrients were calculated for experimental and actual storms using the concentration of nutrients and the flow data of water discharging the roof. The green roof was effective in retaining precipitation quantity from storm events (mean percent retention 96.8%, SD = 2.7%, n = 87), although the relative fraction of water retained decreased with increases in the size of the event. There was no difference in water retention of the green roof for the growing and non-growing seasons. Drainage waters exhibited high concentration of nutrients during the warm temperature growing season, particularly total nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon. Overall, nutrient losses were low because of the strong retention of water. However, there was marked variation in the retention of nutrients by season due to variations in concentrations in roof

  2. MULTI-SPACECRAFT ANALYSIS OF ENERGETIC HEAVY ION AND INTERPLANETARY SHOCK PROPERTIES IN ENERGETIC STORM PARTICLE EVENTS NEAR 1 au

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebert, R. W.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I. [Southwest Research Institute, 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238 (United States); Jian, L. K. [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Li, G. [The Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research (CSPAR), University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35756 (United States); Mason, G. M., E-mail: rebert@swri.edu [Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20273 (United States)

    2016-11-10

    We examine the longitude distribution of and relationship between interplanetary (IP) shock properties and ∼0.1–20 MeV nucleon{sup -1} O and Fe ions during seven multi-spacecraft energetic storm particle (ESP) events at 1 au. These ESP events were observed at two spacecraft and were primarily associated with low Mach number, quasi-perpendicular shocks. Key observations include the following: (i) the Alfvén Mach number increased from east to west of the coronal mass ejection source longitude, while the shock speed, compression ratios, and obliquity showed no clear dependence; (ii) the O and Fe time intensity profiles and peak intensities varied significantly between longitudinally separated spacecraft observing the same event, the peak intensities being larger near the nose and smaller along the flank of the IP shock; (iii) the O and Fe peak intensities had weak to no correlations with the shock parameters; (iv) the Fe/O time profiles showed intra-event variations upstream of the shock that disappeared downstream of the shock, where values plateaued to those comparable to the mean Fe/O of solar cycle 23; (v) the O and Fe spectral index ranged from ∼1.0 to 3.4, the Fe spectra being softer in most events; and (vi) the observed spectral index was softer than the value predicted from the shock compression ratio in most events. We conclude that while the variations in IP shock properties may account for some variations in O and Fe properties within these multi-spacecraft events, detailed examination of the upstream seed population and IP turbulence, along with modeling, are required to fully characterize these observations.

  3. ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Christine M.; Cox, Dale A.; Dettinger, Michael; Shaller, Kevin; Welborn, Toby L.; McCarthy, Maureen

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, we downscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno and Carson City region of northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus. Discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a tabletop emergency response exercise and set of recommendations for increasing resilience to extreme winter storm events in both Tahoe and the downstream communities of Northern Nevada.Over 300 individuals participated in ARkStorm@Tahoe stakeholder meetings and the emergency response exercise, including representatives from emergency response, natural resource and ecosystem management, health and human services, public utilities, and businesses. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, interagency

  4. Field-aligned currents observed by CHAMP during the intense 2003 geomagnetic storm events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This study concentrates on the characteristics of field-aligned currents (FACs in both hemispheres during the extreme storms in October and November 2003. High-resolution CHAMP magnetic data reflect the dynamics of FACs during these geomagnetic storms, which are different from normal periods. The peak intensity and most equatorward location of FACs in response to the storm phases are examined separately for both hemispheres, as well as for the dayside and nightside. The corresponding large-scale FAC peak densities are, on average, enhanced by about a factor of 5 compared to the quiet-time FACs' strengths. And the FAC densities on the dayside are, on average, 2.5 times larger in the Southern (summer than in the Northern (winter Hemisphere, while the observed intensities on the nightside are comparable between the two hemispheres. Solar wind dynamic pressure is correlated with the FACs strength on the dayside. However, the latitudinal variations of the FACs are compared with the variations in Dst and the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz, in order to determine how these parameters control the large-scale FACs' configuration in the polar region. We have determined that (1 the equatorward shift of FACs on the dayside is directly controlled by the southward IMF Bz and there is a saturation of the latitudinal displacement for large value of negative Bz. In the winter hemisphere this saturation occurs at higher latitudes than in the summer hemisphere. (2 The equatorward expansion of the nightside FACs is delayed with respect to the solar wind input. The poleward recovery of FACs on the nightside is slower than on the dayside. The latitudinal variations on the nightside are better described by the variations of the Dst index. (3 The latitudinal width of the FAC region on the nightside spreads over a wide range of about 25° in latitude.

  5. Digoxin Is Associated With Increased Shock Events and Electrical Storms in Patients With Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mina, George S; Acharya, Madan; Shepherd, Taylor; Gobrial, George; Tekeste, Michael; Watti, Hussam; Bhandari, Ruchi; Saini, Aditya; Reddy, Pratap; Dominic, Paari

    2018-03-01

    Recently, digoxin use has been found to associate with higher mortality. Yet, potential mechanisms by which digoxin use increases mortality remain unclear. Increased arrhythmogenicity from digoxin use is one possibility. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the relation between digoxin and shock events in patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs). We performed a retrospective chart review of all patients with ICDs and at least 1 device interrogation at our institution between January 1, 2012, and January 1, 2015. We aimed to cover 1 year of interrogation period. Patients with heart failure, atrial fibrillation, or both were included in the analysis. Patients were divided into 2 groups based on digoxin use, defined as use of digoxin for any period of time during ICD interrogation period. Incidence of ICD shock events and electrical storms and hospitalizations were compared between the 2 groups. The study included 202 patients. Of those, 55 patients were on digoxin and 147 were not on digoxin. Patients on digoxin were more likely to receive ICD shocks (odds ratio [OR] = 2.5, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.01-6.18, P = .04) and have increased risk of electrical storms ( P = .02). Moreover, total hospitalizations were higher in digoxin users ( P = .02). Multivariate logistic regression analysis also showed that digoxin use was an independent predictor of shock events (OR = 4.07, 95% CI = 1.43-11.58, P = .009). Digoxin is associated with increased shock events and electrical storms in patients with ICDs; however, large randomized controlled studies are needed to confirm our findings.

  6. The solar activity, magnetic storms and their effects on biological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salakhitdinova, M.K.; Yusupov, A.A.

    2004-01-01

    In the present time much attention is spent on the electromagnetic waves, solar radiation and magnetic storms on biological systems, including on person. However, there are few publications describing the mechanism of these influences on human. First of all it is necessary to point out that electromagnetic waves, the flow of particles in space and magnetic storms, acting on person human-all is connected with biophysical processes. So approach to influence of these factors on organism follows the processes of influence of these waves on bio system. Magnetic storms are phenomena continuously connected with solar activity. Investigation of cosmic space has intensified the practical importance of the problem of interaction with natural factors of external ambience. Much attention deserves the cosmic radiation, geomagnetic field, elements of climate and weathers. However the mechanism of bio tropic action of these factors is not enough studied. Beginning XXI century was already signified the successes in investigation of Mars. The Space shuttles 'Spirit' and 'Opportunity' successfully have carried out some work on examining and finding of water on Mars. A flight of person to Mars is being considered. One of the important mechanisms of influence on human organism is, in our opinion, the rising of the resonance at coincidence of frequencies and their more important factor is a phenomena of electromagnetic induction and forming the radicals in the organism. (author)

  7. Thermospheric response observed over Fritz peak, Colorado, during two large geomagnetic storms near solar cycle maximum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez, G.; Roble, R.G.; Ridley, E.C.; Allen, J.H.

    1982-01-01

    Nightime thermospheric winds and temperatures have been measured over Fritz Peak Observatory, Colorado (39.9 0 N, 105.5 0 W), with a high resolution Fabry-Perot spectrometer. The winds and temperatures are obtained from the Doppler shifts and line profiles of the (O 1) 15,867K (630 nm) line emission. Measurements made during two large geomagnetic storm periods near solar cycle maximum reveal a thermospheric response to the heat and momentum sources associated with these storms that is more complex than the ones measured near solar cycle minimum. In the earlier measurements made during solar cycle minimum, the winds to the north of Fritz Peak Observatory had an enhanced equatorward component and the winds to the south were also equatorward, usually with smaller velocities. The winds measured to the east and west of the observatory both had an enhanced westward wind component. For the two large storms near the present solar cycle maximum period converging winds are observed in each of the cardinal directions from Fritz Peak Observatory. These converging winds with speeds of hundreds of meters per second last for several hours. The measured neutral gas temperature in each of the directions also increases several hundred degrees Kelvin. Numerical experiments done with the NCAR thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM) suggest that the winds to the east and north of the station are driven by high-latitude heating and enhanced westward ion drag associated with magnetospheric convection. The cause of the enhanced poleward and eastward winds measured to the south and west of Fritz Peak Observatory, respectively, is not known. During geomagnetic quiet conditions the circulation is typically from the soutwest toward the northeast in the evening hours

  8. Effects of dust storm events on weekly clinic visits related to pulmonary tuberculosis disease in Minqin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yun; Wang, Ruoyu; Ming, Jing; Liu, Guangxiu; Chen, Tuo; Liu, Xinfeng; Liu, Haixia; Zhen, Yunhe; Cheng, Guodong

    2016-02-01

    Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a major public health problem in China. Minqin, a Northwest county of China, has a very high number of annual PTB clinic visits and it is also known for its severe dust storms. The epidemic usually begins in February and ends in July, while the dust storms mainly occur throughout spring and early summer, thereby suggesting that there might be a close link between the causative agent of PTB and dust storms. We investigated the general impact of dust storms on PTB over time by analyzing the variation in weekly clinic visits in Minqin during 2005-2012. We used the Mann-Whitney-Pettitt test and a regression model to determine the seasonal periodicity of PTB and dust storms in a time series, as well as assessing the relationships between meteorological variables and weekly PTB clinic visits. After comparing the number of weekly PTB cases in Gansu province with dust storm events, we detected a clear link between the population dynamics of PTB and climate events, i.e., the onset of epidemics and dust storms (defined by an atmospheric index) occurred in almost the same mean week. Thus, particulate matter might be the cause of PTB outbreaks on dust storm days. It is highly likely that the significant decline in annual clinic visits was closely associated with improvements in the local environment, which prevented desertification and decreased the frequency of dust storm events. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first population-based study to provide clear evidence that a PTB epidemic was affected by dust storms in China, which may give insights into the association between this environmental problem and the evolution of epidemic disease.

  9. Substorms during different storm phases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Partamies

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available After the deep solar minimum at the end of the solar cycle 23, a small magnetic storm occurred on 20–26 January 2010. The Dst (disturbance storm time index reached the minimum of −38 nT on 20 January and the prolonged recovery that followed the main phase that lasted for about 6 days. In this study, we concentrate on three substorms that took place (1 just prior to the storm, (2 during the main phase of the storm, and (3 at the end of the recovery of the storm. We analyse the solar wind conditions from the solar wind monitoring spacecraft, the duration and intensity of the substorm events as well as the behaviour of the electrojet currents from the ground magnetometer measurements. We compare the precipitation characteristics of the three substorms. The results show that the F-region electron density enhancements and dominant green and red auroral emission of the substorm activity during the storm recovery resembles average isolated substorm precipitation. However, the energy dissipated, even at the very end of a prolonged storm recovery, is very large compared to the typical energy content of isolated substorms. In the case studied here, the dissipation of the excess energy is observed over a 3-h long period of several consecutive substorm intensifications. Our findings suggest that the substorm energy dissipation varies between the storm phases.

  10. StoRMon: an event log analyzer for Grid Storage Element based on StoRM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zappi, Riccardo; Dal Pra, Stefano; Dibenedetto, Michele; Ronchieri, Elisabetta

    2011-01-01

    Managing a collaborative production Grid infrastructure requires to identify and handle every issue, which might arise, in a timely manner. Currently, the most complex problem of the data Grid infrastructure relates to the data management because of its distributed nature. To ensure that problems are quickly addressed and solved, each site should contribute to the solution providing any useful information about services that run in its administrative domain. Often Grid sites' administrators to be effective must collect, organize and examine the scattered logs events that are produced from every service and component of the Storage Element. This paper focuses on the problem of gathering the events logs on a Grid Storage Element and describes the design of a new service, called StoRMon. StoRMon will be able to collect, archive, analyze and report on events logs produced by each service of Storage Element during the execution of its tasks. The data and the processed information will be available to the site administrators by using a single contact-point to easily identify security incidents, fraudulent activity, and the operational issues mainly. The new service is applied to a Grid Storage Element characterized by StoRM, GridFTP and YAMSS, and collects the usage data of StoRM, transferring and hierarchical storage services.

  11. EFFECTS OF ALFVEN WAVES ON ELECTRON CYCLOTRON MASER EMISSION IN CORONAL LOOPS AND SOLAR TYPE I RADIO STORMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, G. Q.; Chen, L.; Wu, D. J. [Purple Mountain Observatory, CAS, Nanjing 210008 (China); Yan, Y. H., E-mail: djwu@pmo.ac.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, Beijing 100012 (China)

    2013-06-10

    Solar type I radio storms are long-lived radio emissions from the solar atmosphere. It is believed that these type I storms are produced by energetic electrons trapped within a closed magnetic structure and are characterized by a high ordinary (O) mode polarization. However, the microphysical nature of these emissions is still an open problem. Recently, Wu et al. found that Alfven waves (AWs) can significantly influence the basic physics of wave-particle interactions by modifying the resonant condition. Taking the effects of AWs into account, this work investigates electron cyclotron maser emission driven by power-law energetic electrons with a low-energy cutoff distribution, which are trapped in coronal loops by closed solar magnetic fields. The results show that the emission is dominated by the O mode. It is proposed that this O mode emission may possibly be responsible for solar type I radio storms.

  12. N : P Stoichiometry in a Forested Runoff during Storm Events: Comparisons with Regions and Vegetation Types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lanlan Guo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen and phosphorus are considered the most important limiting elements in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. however, very few studies have focused on which is from forested streams, a bridge between these two systems. To fill this gap, we examined the concentrations of dissolved N and P in storm waters from forested watersheds of five regions in Japan, to characterize nutrient limitation and its potential controlling factors. First, dissolved N and P concentrations and the N : P ratio on forested streams were higher during storm events relative to baseflow conditions. Second, significantly higher dissolved inorganic N concentrations were found in storm waters from evergreen coniferous forest streams than those from deciduous broadleaf forest streams in Aichi, Kochi, Mie, Nagano, and with the exception of Tokyo. Finally, almost all the N : P ratios in the storm water were generally higher than 34, implying that the storm water should be P-limited, especially for Tokyo.

  13. N : P stoichiometry in a forested runoff during storm events: comparisons with regions and vegetation types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Lanlan; Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Fukushima, Takehiko

    2012-01-01

    Nitrogen and phosphorus are considered the most important limiting elements in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. however, very few studies have focused on which is from forested streams, a bridge between these two systems. To fill this gap, we examined the concentrations of dissolved N and P in storm waters from forested watersheds of five regions in Japan, to characterize nutrient limitation and its potential controlling factors. First, dissolved N and P concentrations and the N : P ratio on forested streams were higher during storm events relative to baseflow conditions. Second, significantly higher dissolved inorganic N concentrations were found in storm waters from evergreen coniferous forest streams than those from deciduous broadleaf forest streams in Aichi, Kochi, Mie, Nagano, and with the exception of Tokyo. Finally, almost all the N : P ratios in the storm water were generally higher than 34, implying that the storm water should be P-limited, especially for Tokyo.

  14. Interplanetary radio storms. 2: Emission levels and solar wind speed in the range 0.05-0.8 AU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bougeret, J. L.; Fainberg, J.; Stone, R. G.

    1982-01-01

    Storms of interplanetary type III radio bursts (IP storms) are commonly observed in the interplanetry medium by the ISEE-3 radio instrument. This instrument has the capability of accurately determining the arrival direction of the radio emission. At each observing frequency, the storm radio sources are tracked as they cross the line-of-sight to the Sun. Usng a simple model, the emission levels are determined at a number of radio frequencies for four separate storms. The IP storm radiation is found to occur in regions of enhanced density at levels of 0.05 to 0.8 AU. The density in these enhancements falls off faster than R(-2). The solar wind speed in the storm region is also measured. The analysis is consistent with steady conditions in the storm region during a few days around the central meridian passage of the storm. The comparison with average in situ density measurements compiled from the HELIOS 1-2 observations favors type III storm burst radio emission at the harmonic of the local plasma frequency.

  15. NARX neural network Prediction of SYMH and ASYH indices for geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 including recent St. Patrick's day, 2015 storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskar, A. T.; Vichare, G.

    2017-12-01

    Here, an attempt is made to develop a prediction model for SYMH and ASYH geomagnetic indices using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). SYMH and ASYH indices represent longitudinal symmetric and asymmetric component of the ring current. The ring current state depends on its past conditions therefore, it is necessary to consider its history for prediction. To account this effect Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with eXogenous inputs (NARX) is implemented. This network considers input history of 30 minutes and output feedback of 120 minutes. Solar wind parameters mainly velocity, density and interplanetary magnetic field are used as inputs. SYMH and ASYH indices during geomagnetic storms of 1998-2013, having minimum SYMH training two independent networks. We present the prediction of SYMH and ASYH indices during 9 geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 24 including the recent largest storm occurred on St. Patrick's day, 2015. The present prediction model reproduces the entire time profile of SYMH and ASYH indices along with small variations of 10-30 minutes to good extent within noise level, indicating significant contribution of interplanetary sources and past state of the magnetosphere. However, during the main phase of major storms, residuals (observed-modeled) are found to be large, suggesting influence of internal factors such as magnetospheric processes.

  16. Carcinogenic ptaquiloside in stream water at base flow and during storm events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strobel, Bjarne W.; Clauson-Kaas, Frederik; Hansen, Hans Chr. Bruun

    2017-01-01

    identified, of which the compound ptaquiloside (PTA) is the most abundant. Ptaquiloside has been shown to be highly water soluble, leachable from bracken fronds and litter, and present in the soil below bracken stands. During storm events throughfall from the bracken canopy was collected as well. Stream...... water samples were taken as grab samples, while throughfall accumulated in glass jars set out below the canopy. Field blanks and fortified lab controls were included to ensure reliability of the analysis. Ptaquiloside concentrations were determined using LC-MS/MS after a clean-up using solid phase...... extraction. Results showed that PTA levels in the stream were highly dependent on precipitation, and was rising considerably during rain events, peaking at 2.28 μg/L, before quickly (conservation...

  17. Predicting geomagnetic storms from solar-wind data using time-delay neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Gleisner

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available We have used time-delay feed-forward neural networks to compute the geomagnetic-activity index Dst one hour ahead from a temporal sequence of solar-wind data. The input data include solar-wind density n, velocity V and the southward component Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field. Dst is not included in the input data. The networks implement an explicit functional relationship between the solar wind and the geomagnetic disturbance, including both direct and time-delayed non-linear relations. In this study we especially consider the influence of varying the temporal size of the input-data sequence. The networks are trained on data covering 6600 h, and tested on data covering 2100 h. It is found that the initial and main phases of geomagnetic storms are well predicted, almost independent of the length of the input-data sequence. However, to predict the recovery phase, we have to use up to 20 h of solar-wind input data. The recovery phase is mainly governed by the ring-current loss processes, and is very much dependent on the ring-current history, and thus also the solar-wind history. With due consideration of the time history when optimizing the networks, we can reproduce 84% of the Dst variance.

  18. Deciphering storm-event runoff behavior in a coastal plain watershed using chemical and physical hydrograph separation techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy Callahan; Austin E. Morrison

    2016-01-01

    Interpreting storm-event runoff in coastal plain watersheds is challenging because of the space- and time-variable nature of different sources that contribute to stream flow. These flow vectors and the magnitude of water flux is dependent on the pre-storm soil moisture (as estimated from depth to water table) in the lower coastal plain (LCP) region.

  19. Evaluation of storm event inputs on levels of gross primary production and respiration in a drinking water reservoir

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Samal, Nihar; Stæhr, Peter A.; Pierson, Donald C.

    events using vertical profiles of temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity and chlorophyll automatically collected at 6 hour intervals in West basin of Ashokan Reservoir, which is a part of the New York City drinking water supply. Using data from before, during and after storm events, we examine how...

  20. Characteristics of storms that contribute to extreme precipitation events over the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, Ricardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Ordoñez, Paulina; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.

    2014-05-01

    Floods correspond to one of the most deadly natural disasters in the Iberian Peninsula during the last century. Quite often these floods are associated to intense low pressure systems with an Atlantic origin. In recent years a number of episodes have been evaluated on a case-by-case approach, with a clear focus on extreme events, thus lacking a systematic assessment. In this study we focus on the characteristics of storms for the extended winter season (October to March) that are responsible for the most extreme rainfall events over large areas of the Iberian Peninsula. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events during the extended winter is used based on the most comprehensive database of high resolution (0.2º latitude by 0.2º longitude) gridded daily precipitation dataset available for the Iberian Peninsula. The magnitude of an event is obtained after considering the total area affected as well as its intensity in every grid point (taking into account the daily normalised departure from climatology). Different precipitation rankings are studied considering the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also the six largest river basins in the Iberian Peninsula (Duero, Ebro, Tagus, Minho, Guadiana and Guadalquivir). Using an objective cyclone detecting and tracking scheme [Trigo, 2006] the storm track and characteristics of the cyclones were obtained using the ERA-Interim reanalyses for the 1979-2008 period. The spatial distribution of extratropical cyclone positions when the precipitation extremes occur will be analysed over the considered sub-domains (Iberia, Portugal, major river basins). In addition, we distinguish the different cyclone characteristics (lifetime, direction, minimum pressure, position, velocity, vorticity and radius) with significant impacts in precipitation over the different domains in the Iberian Peninsula. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa

  1. Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

  2. A study of solar and interplanetary parameters of CMEs causing major geomagnetic storms during SC 23

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Oprea

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyse 25 Earth-directed and strongly geoeffective interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs which occurred during solar cycle 23, using data provided by instruments on SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer and geomagnetic stations. We also examine the in situ parameters, the energy transfer into magnetosphere, and the geomagnetic indexes. We compare observed travel times with those calculated by observed speeds projected into the plane of the sky and de-projected by a simple model. The best fit was found with the projected speeds. No correlation was found between the importance of a flare and the geomagnetic Dst (disturbance storm time index. By comparing the in situ parameters with the Dst index we find a strong connection between some of these parameters (such as Bz, Bs · V and the energy transfer into the magnetosphere with the strength of the geomagnetic storm. No correlation was found with proton density and plasma temperature. A superposed epoch analysis revealed a strong dependence of the Dst index on the southward component of interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, and to the Akasofu coupling function, which evaluates the energy transfer between the ICME and the magnetosphere. The analysis also showed that the geomagnetic field at higher latitudes is disturbed before the field around the Earth's equator.

  3. Dynamical Changes Induced by the Very Large Solar Proton Events in October-November 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Charles H.; Roble, Raymond G.

    2006-01-01

    The very large solar storms in October-November 2003 caused solar proton events (SPEs) at the Earth and impacted the upper atmospheric polar cap regions. The Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Mode (TIME-GCM) was used to study the atmospheric dynamical influence of the solar protons that occurred in Oct-Nov 2003, the fourth largest period of SPEs measured in the past 40 years. The highly energetic solar protons caused ionization and changes in the electric field, which led to Joule heating of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. This heating led to temperature increases up to 4K in the upper mesosphere. The solar proton-induced ionization, as well as dissociation processes, led to the production of odd hydrogen (HO(x)) and odd nitrogen (NO(y)). Substantial (>40%) short-lived ozone decreases followed these enhancements of HO(x) and NO(y) and led to a cooling of the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. This cooling led to temperature decreases up to 2.5K. The solar proton-caused temperature changes led to maximum meridional and zonal wind variations of +/- 2 m/s on background winds up to +/- 30 m/s. The solar proton-induced wind perturbations were computed to taper off over a period of several days past the SPEs. Solar cycle 23 was accompanied by ten very large SPEs between 1998 and 2005, along with numerous smaller events. These solar proton-driven atmospheric variations need to be carefully considered when examining other polar changes.

  4. Statistical Relationship between Sawtooth Oscillations and Geomagnetic Storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Hun Kim

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available We have investigated a statistical relationship between sawtooth oscillations and geomagnetic storms during 2000-2004. First of all we selected a total of 154 geomagnetic storms based on the Dst index, and distinguished between different drivers such as Coronal Mass Ejection (CME and Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR. Also, we identified a total of 48 sawtooth oscillation events based on geosynchronous energetic particle data for the same 2000-2004 period. We found that out of the 154 storms identified, 47 storms indicated the presence of sawtooth oscillations. Also, all but one sawtooth event identified occurred during a geomagnetic storm interval. It was also found that sawtooth oscillation events occur more frequently for storms driven by CME (˜62% than for storms driven by CIR (˜30%. In addition, sawtooth oscillations occurred mainly (˜82% in the main phase of storms for CME-driven storms while they occurred mostly (˜78% during the storm recovery phase for CIR-driven storms. Next we have examined the average characteristics of the Bz component of IMF, and solar wind speed, which were the main components for driving geomagnetic storm. We found that for most of the sawtooth events, the IMF Bz corresponds to --15 to 0 nT and the solar wind speed was in the range of 400˜700 km/s. We found that there was a weak tendency that the number of teeth for a given sawtooth event interval was proportional to the southward IMF Bz magnitude.

  5. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wadey, Matthew P; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Jennifer M; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

    2016-12-06

    In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (sea level events from happening within 4-8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

  6. Jupiter's Spot Seen Glowing - Scientists Get First Look at Weather Inside the Solar System's Biggest Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    New ground-breaking thermal images obtained with ESO's Very Large Telescope and other powerful ground-based telescopes show swirls of warmer air and cooler regions never seen before within Jupiter's Great Red Spot, enabling scientists to make the first detailed interior weather map of the giant storm system linking its temperature, winds, pressure and composition with its colour. "This is our first detailed look inside the biggest storm of the Solar System," says Glenn Orton, who led the team of astronomers that made the study. "We once thought the Great Red Spot was a plain old oval without much structure, but these new results show that it is, in fact, extremely complicated." The observations reveal that the reddest colour of the Great Red Spot corresponds to a warm core within the otherwise cold storm system, and images show dark lanes at the edge of the storm where gases are descending into the deeper regions of the planet. The observations, detailed in a paper appearing in the journal Icarus, give scientists a sense of the circulation patterns within the solar system's best-known storm system. Sky gazers have been observing the Great Red Spot in one form or another for hundreds of years, with continuous observations of its current shape dating back to the 19th century. The spot, which is a cold region averaging about -160 degrees Celsius, is so wide that about three Earths could fit inside its boundaries. The thermal images were mostly obtained with the VISIR [1] instrument attached to ESO's Very Large Telescope in Chile, with additional data coming from the Gemini South telescope in Chile and the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan's Subaru Telescope in Hawaii. The images have provided an unprecedented level of resolution and extended the coverage provided by NASA's Galileo spacecraft in the late 1990s. Together with observations of the deep cloud structure by the 3-metre NASA Infrared Telescope Facility in Hawaii, the level of thermal detail observed

  7. Probability model for worst case solar proton event fluences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xapsos, M.A.; Summers, G.P.; Barth, J.L.; Stassinopoulos, E.G.; Burke, E.A.

    1999-01-01

    The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary orbits, polar orbits and on interplanetary missions. A predictive model of worst case solar proton event fluences is presented. It allows the expected worst case event fluence to be calculated for a given confidence level and for periods of time corresponding to space missions. The proton energy range is from >1 to >300 MeV, so that the model is useful for a variety of radiation effects applications. For each proton energy threshold, the maximum entropy principle is used to select the initial distribution of solar proton event fluences. This turns out to be a truncated power law, i.e., a power law for smaller event fluences that smoothly approaches zero at a maximum fluence. The strong agreement of the distribution with satellite data for the last three solar cycles indicates this description captures the essential features of a solar proton event fluence distribution. Extreme value theory is then applied to the initial distribution of events to obtain the model of worst case fluences

  8. Simultaneous response of NmF2 and GPS-TEC to storm events at Ilorin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshua, B. W.; Adeniyi, J. O.; Oladipo, O. A.; Doherty, P. H.; Adimula, I. A.; Olawepo, A. O.; Adebiyi, S. J.

    2018-06-01

    A comparative study of both TEC and NmF2 variations during quiet and disturbed conditions has been investigated using simultaneous measurements from dual frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and a DPS-4 Digisonde co-located at Ilorin (Geog. Lat. 8.50°N, Long. 4.50°E, dip. - 7.9°). The results of the quiet time variations of the two parameters show some similarities as well as differences in their structures. The values of both parameters generally increase during the sunrise period attaining a peak around the noon and then decaying towards the night time. The onset time of the sunrise growth is observed to be earlier in TEC than in NmF2. The rate of decay of TEC was observed to be faster than that of the NmF2 in most cases. Also, the noon 'bite-outs', leading to the formation of pre-noon and post-noon peaks, are prominent in the NmF2 structure and was hardly noticed in TEC. Results of the variations of both TEC and NmF2 during the 5 April, 10 May and 3 August 2010 geomagnetic storm events showed a simultaneous deviations of both parameters from the quiet time behavior. The magnitude of the deviations is however most pronounced in NmF2 structure than in TEC. We also found that the enhancement observed in the two parameters during the storm events generally corresponds to decrease in hmF2.

  9. Seasonal variability of stream water quality response to storm events captured using high-frequency and multi-parameter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fovet, O.; Humbert, G.; Dupas, R.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Gruau, G.; Jaffrezic, A.; Thelusma, G.; Faucheux, M.; Gilliet, N.; Hamon, Y.; Grimaldi, C.

    2018-04-01

    The response of stream chemistry to storm is of major interest for understanding the export of dissolved and particulate species from catchments. The related challenge is the identification of active hydrological flow paths during these events and of the sources of chemical elements for which these events are hot moments of exports. An original four-year data set that combines high frequency records of stream flow, turbidity, nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and piezometric levels was used to characterize storm responses in a headwater agricultural catchment. The data set was used to test to which extend the shallow groundwater was impacting the variability of storm responses. A total of 177 events were described using a set of quantitative and functional descriptors related to precipitation, stream and groundwater pre-event status and event dynamics, and to the relative dynamics between water quality parameters and flow via hysteresis indices. This approach led to identify different types of response for each water quality parameter which occurrence can be quantified and related to the seasonal functioning of the catchment. This study demonstrates that high-frequency records of water quality are precious tools to study/unique in their ability to emphasize the variability of catchment storm responses.

  10. Dust storm events over Delhi: verification of dust AOD forecasts with satellite and surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Aditi; Iyengar, Gopal R.; George, John P.

    2016-05-01

    Thar desert located in northwest part of India is considered as one of the major dust source. Dust storms originate in Thar desert during pre-monsoon season, affects large part of Indo-Gangetic plains. High dust loading causes the deterioration of the ambient air quality and degradation in visibility. Present study focuses on the identification of dust events and verification of the forecast of dust events over Delhi and western part of IG Plains, during the pre-monsoon season of 2015. Three dust events have been identified over Delhi during the study period. For all the selected days, Terra-MODIS AOD at 550 nm are found close to 1.0, while AURA-OMI AI shows high values. Dust AOD forecasts from NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM) for the three selected dust events are verified against satellite (MODIS) and ground based observations (AERONET). Comparison of observed AODs at 550 nm from MODIS with NCUM predicted AODs reveals that NCUM is able to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of dust AOD, in these cases. Good correlation (~0.67) is obtained between the NCUM predicted dust AODs and location specific observations available from AERONET. Model under-predicted the AODs as compared to the AERONET observations. This may be mainly because the model account for only dust and no anthropogenic activities are considered. The results of the present study emphasize the requirement of more realistic representation of local dust emission in the model both of natural and anthropogenic origin, to improve the forecast of dust from NCUM during the dust events.

  11. Radiation Exposure Analyses Supporting the Development of Solar Particle Event Shielding Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Steven A.; Clowdsley, Martha S.; Abston, H. Lee; Simon, Hatthew A.; Gallegos, Adam M.

    2013-01-01

    NASA has plans for long duration missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). Outside of LEO, large solar particle events (SPEs), which occur sporadically, can deliver a very large dose in a short amount of time. The relatively low proton energies make SPE shielding practical, and the possibility of the occurrence of a large event drives the need for SPE shielding for all deep space missions. The Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) RadWorks Storm Shelter Team was charged with developing minimal mass SPE storm shelter concepts for missions beyond LEO. The concepts developed included "wearable" shields, shelters that could be deployed at the onset of an event, and augmentations to the crew quarters. The radiation transport codes, human body models, and vehicle geometry tools contained in the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation In Space (OLTARIS) were used to evaluate the protection provided by each concept within a realistic space habitat and provide the concept designers with shield thickness requirements. Several different SPE models were utilized to examine the dependence of the shield requirements on the event spectrum. This paper describes the radiation analysis methods and the results of these analyses for several of the shielding concepts.

  12. Solar Energetic Particle Events at the Rise Phase of the 23rd Solar ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tribpo

    Abstract. The experiment with 10K-80 aboard the INTER-BALL-2. (which detects protons with energies >7, 27-41, 41-58, 58-88, 88-180 and 180-300 MeV) registered six events of the solar energetic particle. (SEP) increase. These events are during the initial rise phase of the 23rd solar activity cycle. Solar flares with the ...

  13. Solar proton events and their effect on space systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tranquille, C.

    1994-01-01

    Solar protons present a major problem to space systems because of the ionisation and displacement effects which arise from their interaction with matter. This is likely to become a greater problem in the future due to the use of more sensitive electronic components and the proposed expansion of manned activities in space. An outline is provided of the physical processes associated with individual solar events, the solar activity cycle and the transport of solar particles between the Sun and the Earth. The problems of predicting solar event fluences, both over short- and long-term periods, are discussed. The currently available solar proton event models used for long-term forecasting are briefly reviewed, and the advantages and deficiencies of each model are investigated. Predictions using the models are compared to measurements made by the GOES-7 satellite during the rising phase of the current solar cycle. These measurements are also used to illustrate the sensitivity of the models to the choice of confidence level and to the spectral form used for extrapolation over the solar proton energy range. (author)

  14. Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave simulations of a storm event over the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renault, Lionel; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Warner, John C.; Gomez, Marta; Vizoso, Guillermo; Tintore, Joaquin

    2012-01-01

    The coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea are one of the most challenging places for ocean forecasting. This region is exposed to severe storms events that are of short duration. During these events, significant air-sea interactions, strong winds and large sea-state can have catastrophic consequences in the coastal areas. To investigate these air-sea interactions and the oceanic response to such events, we implemented the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System simulating a severe storm in the Mediterranean Sea that occurred in May 2010. During this event, wind speed reached up to 25 m.s-1 inducing significant sea surface cooling (up to 2°C) over the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and along the storm track, and generating surface waves with a significant height of 6 m. It is shown that the event, associated with a cyclogenesis between the Balearic Islands and the GoL, is relatively well reproduced by the coupled system. A surface heat budget analysis showed that ocean vertical mixing was a major contributor to the cooling tendency along the storm track and in the GoL where turbulent heat fluxes also played an important role. Sensitivity experiments on the ocean-atmosphere coupling suggested that the coupled system is sensitive to the momentum flux parameterization as well as air-sea and air-wave coupling. Comparisons with available atmospheric and oceanic observations showed that the use of the fully coupled system provides the most skillful simulation, illustrating the benefit of using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model for the assessment of these storm events.

  15. Increasing Flood Risk due to Run-off Outflow near Estuarine City during Storm Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, S.; Lee, C.; Do, K.; Jung, T.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclone easily causes inundation damage to low-lying coastal area and the damage may be amplified due to tide motion, sea-level rise, riverine discharges. Specifically, typhoons are accompanied by intensive rainfall, which will of course raise the river water level and thus enhance the flooding damages. If the tidal cycle coincides the high water, flooding will be even aggravated. In the present study, we simulated storm surge motions at the coastal area considering combined effects of tidal and river discharge with aim to improve the accuracy of flooding prediction. The quasi 3-dimension ocean circulation model, Delf3D was used which solves the unsteady shallow water equation in the 2D and 3D. Since Delft3D is much applicable to accommodate the indirect flooding factors such as riverine discharge and short waves, outer-coupled modeling system was established to account for combined tide-surge-riverine discharge effects. In such integrated system, 11 tidal constituents were input as open boundary condition using TPXO 7.2 model, while the water level per unit time was preliminary calculated by HEC-HMS model and input as the upstream boundary conditions for river inside the domain. Typhoon MAEMI which attacked Masan city located at southern coast of South Korea and caused severe inundation damages in 2003 was selected for the study event. Basic information for typhoon such as path, wind speed, atmospheric pressure every 3 hours was provided by the Korea Meteorological Agency and was adopted. The simulation was implemented with tide and storm surge boundary conditions focusing on the target area, Masan, while the additional consideration on the discharge of the river inside the domain was also made. Simulated water level at the fixed location was compared to the observation for its verification and the extent of inundation areas of Masan were compared between observed and calculated. The marginal contribution of riverine discharge on the flooding area

  16. Hydrodynamic Based Decision Making Framework for Impact Assessment of Extreme Storm Events on Coastal Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazari, R.; Miller, K.; Hurler, C.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal and inland flooding has been a problematic occurrence, specifically over the past century. Global warming has caused an 8 inch sea level rise since 1990, which made the coastal flood zone wider, deeper and more damaging. Additionally, riverine flooding is extremely damaging to the country's substructure and economy as well which causes river banks to overflow, inundating low-lying areas. New Jersey and New York are two areas at severe risk for flood hazard, sea level rise, land depletion and economic loss which are the main study area of this work. A decision making framework is being built to help mitigate the impacts of the environmental and economical dangers of storm surges, sea level rise, flashfloods and inland flooding. With vigorous research and the use of innovative hydrologic modeling software, this tool can be built and utilized to form resiliency for coastal communities. This will allow the individuals living in a coastal community to understand the details of climatic hazards in their area and risks associated to their communities. This tool will also suggest the best solution for the problem each community faces. Atlantic City and New York City has been modeled and compared using potential storm events and the outcomes have been analyzed. The tool offers all the possible solutions for the type of flooding that occurs. Green infrastructure such as rain gardens, detention basins and green roofs can be used as small scale solutions. Greater scale solutions such as removable flood barriers, concrete walls and height adjustable walls will also be displayed if that poses as the best solution. The results and benefits from the simulation and modeling techniques, will allow coastal communities to choose the most appropriate method for building a long lasting and sustainable resilience plan in the future.

  17. Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    KAUST Repository

    Deng, Liping; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Evans, Jason P.; Kucera, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite

  18. Cosmic ray variations of solar origin in relation to human physiological state during the December 2006 solar extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papailiou, M.; Mavromichalaki, H.; Vassilaki, A.; Kelesidis, K. M.; Mertzanos, G. A.; Petropoulos, B.

    2009-02-01

    There is an increasing amount of evidence linking biological effects to solar and geomagnetic disturbances. A series of studies is published referring to the changes in human physiological responses at different levels of geomagnetic activity. In this study, the possible relation between the daily variations of cosmic ray intensity, measured by the Neutron Monitor at the Cosmic Ray Station of the University of Athens (http://cosray.phys.uoa.gr) and the average daily and hourly heart rate variations of persons, with no symptoms or hospital admission, monitored by Holter electrocardiogram, is considered. This work refers to a group of persons admitted to the cardiological clinic of the KAT Hospital in Athens during the time period from 4th to 24th December 2006 that is characterized by extreme solar and geomagnetic activity. A series of Forbush decreases started on 6th December and lasted until the end of the month and a great solar proton event causing a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) of the cosmic ray intensity on 13th December occurred. A sudden decrease of the cosmic ray intensity on 15th December, when a geomagnetic storm was registered, was also recorded in Athens Neutron Monitor station (cut-off rigidity 8.53 GV) with amplitude of 4%. It is noticed that during geomagnetically quiet days the heart rate and the cosmic ray intensity variations are positively correlated. When intense cosmic ray variations, like Forbush decreases and relativistic proton events produced by strong solar phenomena occur, cosmic ray intensity and heart rate get minimum values and their variations, also, coincide. During these events the correlation coefficient of these two parameters changes and follows the behavior of the cosmic ray intensity variations. This is only a small part of an extended investigation, which has begun using data from the year 2002 and is still in progress.

  19. Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A.; Mahmood, S.; Ngwira, C.; Balch, C.; Lordan, R.; Fugate, D.; Jacobs, W.; Honkonen, I.

    2015-01-01

    A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

  20. Characterizing Storm Event Dynamics of a Forested Watershed in the Lower Atlantic Coastal Plain, South Carolina USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latorre Torres, I. B.; Amatya, D. M.; Callahan, T. J.; Levine, N. S.

    2007-12-01

    Hydrology research in the Southeast U.S. has primarily focused on upland mountainous areas; however, much less is known about hydrological processes in Lower Coastal Plain (LCP) watersheds. Such watersheds are difficult to characterize due to shallow water table conditions, low topographic gradient, complex surface- subsurface water interaction, and lack of detailed soil information. Although opportunities to conduct long term monitoring in relatively undeveloped watersheds are often limited, stream flow and rainfall in the Turkey Creek watershed (third-order watershed, about 7200 ha in the Francis Marion National Forest near Charleston, SC) have been monitored since 1964. In this study, event runoff-rainfall ratios have been determined for 51 storm events using historical data from 1964-1973. One of our objectives was to characterize relationships between seasonal event rainfall and storm outflow in this watershed. To this end, observed storm event data were compared with values predicted by established hydrological methods such as the Soil Conservation Service runoff curve number (SCS-CN) and the rational method integrated within a Geographical Information System (GIS), to estimate total event runoff and peak discharge, respectively. Available 1:15000 scale aerial images were digitized to obtain land uses, which were used with the SCS soil hydrologic groups to obtain the runoff coefficients (C) for the rational method and the CN values for the SCS-CN method. These methods are being tested with historical storm event responses in the Turkey Creek watershed scale, and then will be used to predict event runoff in Quinby Creek, an ungauged third-order watershed (8700 ha) adjacent to Turkey Creek. Successful testing with refinement of parameters in the rational method and SCS-CN method, both designed for small urban and agricultural dominated watersheds, may allow widespread application of these methods for studying the event rainfall-runoff dynamics for similar

  1. Space weather effects on radio propagation: study of the CEDAR, GEM and ISTP storm events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Blagoveshchensky

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The impact of 14 geomagnetic storms from a list of CEDAR, GEM and ISTP storms, that occurred during 1997–1999, on radio propagation conditions has been investigated. The propagation conditions were estimated through variations of the MOF and LOF (the maximum and lowest operation frequencies on three high-latitude HF radio paths in north-west Russia. Geophysical data of Dst, Bz, AE as well as some riometer data from Sodankyla observatory, Finland, were used for the analysis. It was shown that the storm impact on the ionosphere and radio propagation for each storm has an individual character. Nevertheless, there are common patterns in variation of the propagation parameters for all storms. Thus, the frequency range Δ=MOF−LOF increases several hours before a storm, then it narrows sharply during the storm, and expands again several hours after the end of the storm. This regular behaviour should be useful for the HF radio propagation predictions and frequency management at high latitudes. On the trans-auroral radio path, the time interval when the signal is lost through a storm (tdes depends on the local time. For the day-time storms an average value tdes is 6 h, but for night storms tdes is only 2 h. The ionization increase in the F2 layer before storm onset is 3.5 h during the day-time and 2.4 h at night. Mechanisms to explain the observed variations are discussed including some novel possibilities involving energy input through the cusp.

  2. Space weather effects on radio propagation: study of the CEDAR, GEM and ISTP storm events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Blagoveshchensky

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The impact of 14 geomagnetic storms from a list of CEDAR, GEM and ISTP storms, that occurred during 1997–1999, on radio propagation conditions has been investigated. The propagation conditions were estimated through variations of the MOF and LOF (the maximum and lowest operation frequencies on three high-latitude HF radio paths in north-west Russia. Geophysical data of Dst, Bz, AE as well as some riometer data from Sodankyla observatory, Finland, were used for the analysis. It was shown that the storm impact on the ionosphere and radio propagation for each storm has an individual character. Nevertheless, there are common patterns in variation of the propagation parameters for all storms. Thus, the frequency range Δ=MOF−LOF increases several hours before a storm, then it narrows sharply during the storm, and expands again several hours after the end of the storm. This regular behaviour should be useful for the HF radio propagation predictions and frequency management at high latitudes. On the trans-auroral radio path, the time interval when the signal is lost through a storm (tdes depends on the local time. For the day-time storms an average value tdes is 6 h, but for night storms tdes is only 2 h. The ionization increase in the F2 layer before storm onset is 3.5 h during the day-time and 2.4 h at night. Mechanisms to explain the observed variations are discussed including some novel possibilities involving energy input through the cusp.

  3. Dependence of regular background noise of VLF radiation and thunder-storm activity on solar wind proton density

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sobolev, A.V.; Kozlov, V.I.

    1997-01-01

    Correlation of the intensity of slowly changing regular background noise within 9.7 kHz frequency in Yakutsk (L = 3) and of the solar wind density protons was determined. This result explains the reverse dependence of the intensity of the regular background noise on the solar activity, 27-day frequency, increase before and following geomagnetic storms, absence of relation with K p index of geomagnetic activity. Conclusion is made that growth of density of the solar wind protons results in increase of the regular background noise and thunderstorm activity

  4. [Geochemical characteristics and sources of atmospheric particulates in Shanghai during dust storm event].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Peng; Zheng, Xiang-min; Zhou, Li-min

    2013-05-01

    Atmospheric particulates were sampled from three sampling sites of Putuo, Minhang and Qingpu Districts in Shanghai between Oct. , 2009 and Oct. , 2010. In addition, particulate samples were also collected from Nantong, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, and Beijing city where dust storm dust transported along during spring. Element compositions of atmospheric particulates were determined by XRF and ICP-MS. The concentrations of major and trace elements in atmospheric particulates from Putuo, Minhang and Qingpu Districts were similar, indicating their common source. The UCC standardization distribution map showed that the major element composition of dust storm samples was similar to that of loess in northwestern China, indicating that the dust storm dust was mainly derived from Western desert and partly from local area. The REE partition patterns of dust storm dusts among different cities along dust transport route were similar to each other, as well as to those of northern loess, which indicates that the dust storm samples may have the same material source as loess, which mainly comes from crust material. However, the REE partition patterns of non-dust storm particulates were different among the studied cities, and different from those of loess, which suggests that the non-dust storm samples may be mixed with non-crust source material, which is different from dust storm dust and loess. The major element composition and REE partition pattern are effective indicators for source tracing of dust storm dust.

  5. Using recent hurricanes and associated event layers to evaluate regional storm impacts on estuarine-wetland systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, C. G.; Marot, M. E.; Osterman, L. E.; Adams, C. S.; Haller, C.; Jones, M.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are a major driver of change in coastal and estuarine environments. Heightened waves and sea level associated with tropical cyclones act to erode sediment from one environment and redistribute it to adjacent environments. The fate and transport of this redistributed material is of great importance to the long-term sediment budget, which in turns affects the vulnerability of these coastal systems. The spatial variance in both storm impacts and sediment redistribution is large. At the regional-scale, difference in storm impacts can often be attributed to natural variability in geologic parameters (sediment availability/erodibility), coastal geomorphology (including fetch, shoreline tortuosity, back-barrier versus estuarine shoreline, etc.), storm characteristics (intensity, duration, track/approach), and ecology (vegetation type, gradient, density). To assess storm characteristics and coastal geomorphology on a regional-scale, cores were collected from seven Juncus marshes located in coastal regions of Alabama and Mississippi (i.e., Mobile Bay, Bon Secour Bay, Mississippi Sound, and Grand Bay) expected to have been impacted by Hurricane Frederic (1979). All cores were sectioned and processed for water content, organic matter (loss-on-ignition), and select cores analyzed for foraminiferal assemblages, stable isotopes and bulk metals to aid in the identification of storm events. Excess lead-210 and cesium-137 were used to develop chronologies for the cores and evaluate mass accumulation rates and sedimentation rates. Temporal variations in accumulation rates of inorganic and organic sediments were compared with shoreline and areal change rates derived from historic aerial imagery to evaluate potential changes in sediment exchange prior to, during, and following the storm. A combined geospatial and geologic approach will improve our understanding of coastal change in estuarine marsh environments, as well help refine the influence of storms on regional

  6. Assessing the Performance of GPS Precise Point Positioning Under Different Geomagnetic Storm Conditions during Solar Cycle 24

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaomin Luo

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The geomagnetic storm, which is an abnormal space weather phenomenon, can sometimes severely affect GPS signal propagation, thereby impacting the performance of GPS precise point positioning (PPP. However, the investigation of GPS PPP accuracy over the global scale under different geomagnetic storm conditions is very limited. This paper for the first time presents the performance of GPS dual-frequency (DF and single-frequency (SF PPP under moderate, intense, and super storms conditions during solar cycle 24 using a large data set collected from about 500 international GNSS services (IGS stations. The global root mean square (RMS maps of GPS PPP results show that stations with degraded performance are mainly distributed at high-latitude, and the degradation level generally depends on the storm intensity. The three-dimensional (3D RMS of GPS DF PPP for high-latitude during moderate, intense, and super storms are 0.393 m, 0.680 m and 1.051 m, respectively, with respect to only 0.163 m on quiet day. RMS errors of mid- and low-latitudes show less dependence on the storm intensities, with values less than 0.320 m, compared to 0.153 m on quiet day. Compared with DF PPP, the performance of GPS SF PPP is inferior regardless of quiet or disturbed conditions. The degraded performance of GPS positioning during geomagnetic storms is attributed to the increased ionospheric disturbances, which have been confirmed by our global rate of TEC index (ROTI maps. Ionospheric disturbances not only lead to the deteriorated ionospheric correction but also to the frequent cycle-slip occurrence. Statistical results show that, compared with that on quiet day, the increased cycle-slip occurrence are 13.04%, 56.52%, and 69.57% under moderate, intense, and super storms conditions, respectively.

  7. Influence of particulates on phosphorus loading exported from farm drainage during a storm event in the Everglades Agricultural Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhadha, J. H.; Lang, T. A.; Daroub, S. H.

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of particulates on P loading captured during a single storm event. The Everglades Agricultural Area of Florida comprises 280,000 hectares of organic soil farmland artificially drained by ditches, canals and pumps. Phosphorus (P)-enriched suspended particulates in canals are susceptible to transport and can contribute significantly to the overall P loads in drainage water. A settling tank experiment was conducted to capture particulates during tropical storm Isaac in 2012 from three farms approximately 2.4 to 3.6 km2 in size. Farm canal discharge water was collected in a series of two 200 liter settling tanks over a seven-day drainage period, during tropical storm Isaac. Water from the settling tanks was siphoned through Imhoff settling cones, where the particulates were allowed to settle and collected for P-fractionation analyses, and compared to intact sediment cores collected from the bottom of the canals. The discharged particulates contained higher organic matter content (OM), total P, and labile P fractions compared to the canal bottom sediments. Based on the equilibrium P concentrations, surface sediments behave as a source of P to the water column. A seven-day continuous drainage event exported 4.7 to 11.1 metric tons of suspended solids per farm, corresponding to 32 to 63 kg of particulate P being lost to downstream ecosystems. Drainage associated to a single seven-day storm event exported up to 61% of the total annual farm P load. It is evident from this study that short-term, high-intensity storm events can skew annual P loads due to the export of significantly higher particulate matter from farm canals. Exported particulates rich in P can provide a supplemental source of nutrients if captured and replenished back into the farmlands, as a sustainable farming practice.

  8. Solar storm effects during Saint Patrick's Days in 2013 and 2015 on the Schumann resonances measured by the ELF station at Sierra Nevada (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, A.; Toledo-Redondo, S.; Navarro, E. A.; Fornieles-Callejón, J.; Portí, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    The effects of solar storms occurring during the days 17 to 19 March 2013 and 2015, St. Patrick's Day intervals, on Schumann resonances (SRs) have been studied. To do this, the experimental data recorded by the Juan Antonio Morente extremely low frequency station located at Sierra Nevada, Spain, have been processed in order to obtain hourly averaged information on the first three resonance modes. Results are compared with monthly averages of the SR data for each hour to detect deviations from the regular behavior. Evidence of significant changes in the peak amplitudes and frequencies of the SRs have been identified in the station's measurements and related to the coronal mass ejection impact in the magnetosphere, detected by in situ plasma measurements onboard spacecraft in the solar wind. However, the complicated nature of the Schumann resonances, dependent on multiple variables and subject to multiple unavoidable interferences (e.g., lightning or human radio sources), in conjunction with the complex magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling processes, makes it difficult to conclude that the observed deviations are exclusively due to the solar events mentioned. Results extracted from only two solar events cannot be considered as conclusive, and therefore, independent comparison with results reported by other research would seem advisable in future works on this subject.

  9. Tracking the evolution of stream DOM source during storm events using end member mixing analysis based on DOM quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Liyang; Chang, Soon-Woong; Shin, Hyun-Sang; Hur, Jin

    2015-04-01

    The source of river dissolved organic matter (DOM) during storm events has not been well constrained, which is critical in determining the quality and reactivity of DOM. This study assessed temporal changes in the contributions of four end members (weeds, leaf litter, soil, and groundwater), which exist in a small forested watershed (the Ehwa Brook, South Korea), to the stream DOM during two storm events, using end member mixing analysis (EMMA) based on spectroscopic properties of DOM. The instantaneous export fluxes of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chromophoric DOM (CDOM), and fluorescent components were all enhanced during peak flows. The DOC concentration increased with the flow rate, while CDOM and humic-like fluorescent components were diluted around the peak flows. Leaf litter was dominant for the DOM source in event 2 with a higher rainfall, although there were temporal variations in the contributions of the four end members to the stream DOM for both events. The contribution of leaf litter peaked while that of deeper soils decreased to minima at peak flows. Our results demonstrated that EMMA based on DOM properties could be used to trace the DOM source, which is of fundamental importance for understanding the factors responsible for river DOM dynamics during storm events.

  10. Foretelling Flares and Solar Energetic Particle Events: the FORSPEF tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Sandberg, Ingmar; Georgoulis, Manolis K.; Tziotziou, Kostas; Jiggens, Piers

    2017-04-01

    A novel integrated prediction system, for both solar flares (SFs) and solar energetic particle (SEP) events is being presented. The Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) provides forecasting of solar eruptive events, such as SFs with a projection to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (occurrence and velocity) and the likelihood of occurrence of a SEP event. In addition, FORSPEF, also provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual SF and CME near real-time data, as well as the complete SEP profile (peak flux, fluence, rise time, duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of SFs relies on a morphological method: the effective connected magnetic field strength (Beff); it is based on an assessment of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations and it utilizes sophisticated analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events new methods have been developed for both the likelihood of SEP occurrence and the expected SEP characteristics. In particular, using the location of the flare (longitude) and the flare size (maximum soft X-ray intensity), a reductive statistical method has been implemented. Moreover, employing CME parameters (velocity and width), proper functions per width (i.e. halo, partial halo, non-halo) and integral energy (E>30, 60, 100 MeV) have been identified. In our technique warnings are issued for all > C1.0 soft X-ray flares. The prediction time in the forecasting scheme extends to 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours while the respective prediction time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and falls between 15-20 minutes for solar flares and 6 hours for CMEs. We present the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection and the operational set up. The dual approach in the development of FORPSEF (i.e. forecasting and nowcasting scheme) permits the refinement of predictions upon the availability of new data that characterize changes on

  11. Hindcast storm events in the Bering Sea for the St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet Regions, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; McCall, Robert T.; van Rooijen, Arnold; Norris, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    This study provides viable estimates of historical storm-induced water levels in the coastal communities of Gambell and Savoonga situated on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea, as well as Unalakleet located at the head of Norton Sound on the western coast of Alaska. Gambell, Savoonga, and Unalakleet are small Native Villages that are regularly impacted by coastal storms but where little quantitative information about these storms exists. The closest continuous water-level gauge is at Nome, located more than 200 kilometers from both St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet. In this study, storms are identified and quantified using historical atmospheric and sea-ice data and then used as boundary conditions for a suite of numerical models. The work includes storm-surge (temporary rise in water levels due to persistent strong winds and low atmospheric pressures) modeling in the Bering Strait region, as well as modeling of wave runup along specified sections of the coast in Gambell and Unalakleet. Modeled historical water levels are used to develop return periods of storm surge and storm surge plus wave runup at key locations in each community. It is anticipated that the results will fill some of the data void regarding coastal flood data in western Alaska and be used for production of coastal vulnerability maps and community planning efforts.

  12. Comparison of two recent storm surge events based on results of field surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Ryota; Shibayama, Tomoya; Mikami, Takahito; Esteban, Miguel; Takagi, Hiroshi; Maell, Martin; Iwamoto, Takumu

    2017-10-01

    This paper compares two different types of storm surge disaster based on field surveys. Two cases: a severe storm surge flood with its height of over 5 m due to Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippine, and inundation of storm surge around Nemuro city in Hokkaido of Japan with its maximum surge height of 2.8 m caused by extra-tropical cyclone are taken as examples. For the case of the Typhoon Haiyan, buildings located in coastal region were severely affected due to a rapidly increase in ocean surface. The non-engineering buildings were partially or completely destroyed due to their debris transported to an inner bay region. In fact, several previous reports indicated two unique features, bore-like wave and remarkably high speed currents. These characteristics of the storm surge may contribute to a wide-spread corruption for the buildings around the affected region. Furthermore, in the region where the surge height was nearly 3 m, the wooden houses were completely or partially destroyed. On the other hand, in Nemuro city, a degree of suffering in human and facility caused by the storm surge is minor. There was almost no partially destroyed residential houses even though the height of storm surge reached nearly 2.8 m. An observation in the tide station in Nemuro indicated that this was a usual type of storm surge, which showed a gradual increase of sea level height in several hours without possessing the unique characteristics like Typhoon Haiyan. As a result, not only the height of storm surge but also the robustness of the buildings and characteristics of storm surge, such as bore like wave and strong currents, determined the existent of devastation in coastal regions.

  13. Statistical analysis of solar events associated with SSC over one year of solar maximum during cycle 23: propagation and effects from the Sun to the Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornilleau-Wehrlin, Nicole; Bocchialini, Karine; Menvielle, Michel; Chambodut, Aude; Fontaine, Dominique; Grison, Benjamin; Marchaudon, Aurélie; Pick, Monique; Pitout, Frédéric; Schmieder, Brigitte; Régnier, Stéphane; Zouganelis, Yannis

    2017-04-01

    Taking the 32 sudden storm commencements (SSC) listed by the observatory de l'Ebre / ISGI over the year 2002 (maximal solar activity) as a starting point, we performed a statistical analysis of the related solar sources, solar wind signatures, and terrestrial responses. For each event, we characterized and identified, as far as possible, (i) the sources on the Sun (Coronal Mass Ejections -CME-), with the help of a series of criteria (velocities, drag coefficient, radio waves, helicity), as well as (ii) the structure and properties in the interplanetary medium, at L1, of the event associated to the SSC: magnetic clouds -MC-, non-MC interplanetary coronal mass ejections -ICME-, co-rotating/stream interaction regions -SIR/CIR-, shocks only and unclear events that we call "miscellaneous" events. The observed Sun-to-Earth travel times are compared to those estimated using existing simple models of propagation in the interplanetary medium. This comparison is used to statistically assess performances of various models. The geoeffectiveness of the events, classified by category at L1, is analysed by their signatures in the Earth ionized (magnetosphere and ionosphere) and neutral (thermosphere) environments, using a broad set of in situ, remote and ground based instrumentation. The role of the presence of a unique or of a multiple source at the Sun, of its nature, halo or non halo CME, is also discussed. The set of observations is statistically analyzed so as to evaluate and compare the geoeffectiveness of the events. The results obtained for this set of geomagnetic storms started by SSCs is compared to the overall statistics of year 2002, relying on already published catalogues of events, allowing assessing the relevance of our approach (for instance the all 12 well identified Magnetic Clouds of 2002 give rise to SSCs).

  14. Statistical analysis of solar events associated with SSC over year of solar maximum during cycle 23: 2. Characterisation on the Sun-Earth path - Geoeffectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Bocchialini, K.; Menvielle, M.; Fontaine, D.; Grison, B.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Regnier, S.; Zouganelis, Y.; Chambodut, A.

    2017-12-01

    Taking the 32 sudden storm commencements (SSC) listed by the observatory de l'Ebre / ISGI over the year 2002 (maximal solar activity) as a starting point, we performed a statistical analysis of the related solar sources, solar wind signatures, and terrestrial responses. For each event, we characterized and identified, as far as possible, (i) the sources on the Sun (Coronal Mass Ejections -CME-), with the help of a series of criteria (velocities, drag coefficient, radio waves, magnetic field polarity), as well as (ii) the structure and properties in the interplanetary medium, at L1, of the event associated to the SSC: magnetic clouds -MC-, non-MC interplanetary coronal mass ejections -ICME-, co-rotating/stream interaction regions -SIR/CIR-, shocks only and unclear events that we call "miscellaneous" events. The geoeffectiveness of the events, classified by category at L1, is analysed by their signatures in the Earth ionized (magnetosphere and ionosphere) and neutral (thermosphere) environments, using a broad set of in situ, remote and ground based instrumentation. The role of the presence of a unique or of a multiple source at the Sun, of its nature, halo or non halo CME, is also discussed. The set of observations is statistically analyzed so as to evaluate and compare the geoeffectiveness of the events. The results obtained for this set of geomagnetic storms started by SSCs is compared to the overall statistics of year 2002, relying on already published catalogues of events, allowing assessing the relevance of our approach ; for instance all the 12 well identified Magnetic Clouds of 2002 give rise to SSCs.

  15. Type 2 solar radio burst with the reverse frequency drift on the background of a noise storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korolev, O.S.; Fomichev, V.V.; Chertok, I.M.

    1979-01-01

    Discussed are the main peculiarities of solar radio burst of the 2nd type recorded on November, 19, 1975 in 11sup(h)02sup(m)-11sup(h)06sup(m)UT in the 45-90 MHz range. The burst considered occurred at the background of the developed noise storm with continuum radiation chearacteristic of it and narrow band. Short-term burst of the first type. The burst band drift was accompanied by the successive cessation of noise storm radiation at frequencies of 50-70 MHz. This phenomenon is interpreted as the result of the interaction between the shock wave spreading in the direction of increasing electron density, and the source of noise storm in coronal plasma. Estimated is the shock wave rate and the paremeters of coronal plasma in the direction of its spreading. A mechanism of interaction between the shock wave and the noise storm source is studied. The observed cessation of noise storm generation is explained by violation of conditions of development of instabilities, in particular, with the isotropization of electrons in the radiation source

  16. Counterstreaming solar wind halo electron events on open field lines?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, J. T.; Mccomas, D. J.; Phillips, J. L.

    1992-01-01

    Counterstreaming solar wind halo electron events have been identified as a common 1 AU signature of coronal mass ejection events, and have generally been interpreted as indicative of closed magnetic field topologies, i.e., magnetic loops or flux ropes rooted at both ends in the Sun, or detached plasmoids. In this paper we examine the possibility that these events may instead occur preferentially on open field lines, and that counterstreaming results from reflection or injection behind interplanetary shocks or from mirroring from regions of compressed magnetic field farther out in the heliosphere. We conclude that neither of these suggested sources of counterstreaming electron beams is viable and that the best interpretation of observed counterstreaming electron events in the solar wind remains that of passage of closed field structures.

  17. Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, R.; Gopalswamy, N.; Mäkelä, P.; Xie, H.; Yashiro, S.; Akiyama, S.; Uddin, W.; Srivastava, A. K.; Joshi, N. C.; Jain, R.; Awasthi, A. K.; Manoharan, P. K.; Mahalakshmi, K.; Dwivedi, V. C.; Choudhary, D. P.; Nitta, N. V.

    2013-12-01

    We present a comparative study of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the rising phases of solar cycles (SC) 23 (1996-1998) (22 events) and 24 (2009-2011) (20 events), which are associated with type II radio bursts. Based on the SEP intensity, we divided the events into three categories, i.e. weak (intensity pfu), minor (1 pfu pfu) and major (intensity ⩾ 10 pfu) events. We used the GOES data for the minor and major SEP events and SOHO/ERNE data for the weak SEP event. We examine the correlation of SEP intensity with flare size and CME properties. We find that most of the major SEP events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs originating close to the sun center and western-hemisphere. The fraction of halo CMEs in SC 24 is larger than the SC 23. For the minor SEP events one event in SC23 and one event in SC24 have widths < 120° and all other events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs as in the case of major SEP events. In case of weak SEP events, majority (more than 60%) of events are associated with CME width < 120°. For both the SC the average CMEs speeds are similar. For major SEP events, average CME speeds are higher in comparison to minor and weak events. The SEP event intensity and GOES X-ray flare size are poorly correlated. During the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24, we find north-south asymmetry in the SEP event source locations: in cycle 23 most sources are located in the south, whereas during cycle 24 most sources are located in the north. This result is consistent with the asymmetry found with sunspot area and intense flares.

  18. Solar radio continuum storms and a breathing magnetic field model. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-01-01

    Radio noise continuum emissions observed in metric and decametric wave frequencies are, in general, associated with actively varying sunspot groups accompanied by the S-component of microwave radio emissions. These continuum emission sources, often called type I storm sources, are often associated with type III burst storm activity from metric to hectometric wave frequencies. This storm activity is, therefore, closely connected with the development of these continuum emission sources. It is shown that the S-component emission in microwave frequencies generally precedes, by several days, the emission of these noise continuum storms of lower frequencies. In order for these storms to develop, the growth of sunspot groups into complex types is very important in addition to the increase of the average magnetic field intensity and area of these groups. After giving a review on the theory of these noise continuum storm emissions, a model is briefly considered to explain the relation of the emissions to the storms

  19. Solar Particle Radiation Storms Forecasting and Analysis within the Framework of the `HESPERIA' HORIZON 2020 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, A.; Malandraki, O.; Nunez, M.; Heber, B.; Labrenz, J.; Kühl, P.; Milas, N.; Tsiropoula, G.; Pavlos, E.

    2017-12-01

    Two prediction tools that have been developed in the framework of HESPERIA based upon the proven concepts UMASEP and REleASE. Near-relativistic (NR) electrons traveling faster than ions (30 MeV protons have 0.25c) are used to forecast the arrival of protons of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with real-time measurements of NR electrons. The faster electrons arrive at L1 30 to 90 minutes before the slower protons. REleASE (Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration, Posner, 2007) uses this effect to predict the proton flux by utilizing actual electron fluxes and their most recent increases. Through HESPERIA, a clone of REleASE was built in open source programming language. The same forecasting principle was adapted to real-time data from ACE/EPAM. It is shown that HESPERIA REleASE forecasting works with any NR electron flux measurements. >500 MeV solar protons are so energetic that they usually have effects on the ground, producing Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. Within HESPERIA, a predictor of >500 SEP proton events near earth (geostationary orbit) has been developed. In order to predict these events, UMASEP (Núñez, 2011, 2015) has been used. UMASEP makes a lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic (EM) flux with the particle flux near earth. If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then UMASEP issues a SEP prediction. In the case of the prediction of >500 MeV SEP events, the implemented system, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, correlates X-ray flux with differential proton fluxes by GOES, and with fluxes collected by neutron monitor stations around the world. When the correlation estimation and flare surpasses thresholds, a >500 MeV SEP forecast is issued. These findings suggest that a synthesis of the various approaches may improve over the status quo. Both forecasting tools are

  20. Flow of Energy through the Inner Magnetosphere during the March 17, 2015 solar storm as observed by the Van Allen Probes Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment (RBSPICE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manweiler, J. W.; Madanian, H.; Gerrard, A. J.; Patterson, J. D.; Mitchell, D. G.; Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2017-12-01

    On March 17, 2015, a large solar storm impacted the Earth's magnetosphere with a maximum negative Dst of -232 nT. We report on the temporal and spatial evolution of the proton energetic particle distributions in phase space during this storm, as measured by the Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment (RBSPICE) instrument on board each of the Van Allen Probes. We characterize the distribution prior to onset of the storm to provide a definition of quiet time conditions. We then show how the distribution evolves during the storm noting key changes of the distribution as a function of L and MLT and showing how the pitch angle distributions change throughout the storm. These observations displayed a number of interesting features of the storm including high beta plasma conditions and multiple injections of protons into the inner magnetosphere. We present the radial changes of the distribution at storm onset and following the evolution of the distribution during storm recovery. We compare observations of the East/West asymmetry in the proton distribution before versus after onset using both Van Allen Probes A and B spacecraft observations. Finally, we note interesting changes in the distribution showing an anomalous dropout in mid-energies of the distribution and observe an outward radial propagation of this dropout during recovery.

  1. Eruptive prominences and long-delay geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, C.S.

    1983-01-01

    The relationship between disappearing solar fragments and geomagnetic disturbances was investigated. It is shown that long-delay storms are associated with filaments well removed from the disc centre, and particularly in the case of large filaments and prominences, the proportion of events that produce long-delay storms increases with angular distance from the centre

  2. Discussion: Comparison of slope instability screening tools following a large storm event and application to forest management and policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lingley, Leslie; Slaughter, Stephen L.; Sarikhan, Isabelle Y.; Norman, David K.

    2013-02-01

    This discussion is in response to the article entitled "Comparison of slope stability screening tools following a large storm event and application to forest management and policy" by Kara Whittaker and Dan McShane (Geomorphology 145-146 (2012) 115-122). The discussion is coauthored by several geologists at the Washington Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) including those from the research and policy sections of the state agency.

  3. Effects of Storm Events on Bacteria and Nutrients in the Bayou Chico Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, S. E.; Truong, S.

    2017-12-01

    Levels of Escherichia coli and abiotic nutrients often increase in response to storm events due to urban runoff. The urban setting, aging septic systems, and ample pet waste (predominant sources of bacterial and nutrient contamination) that surround Bayou Chico, provide abundant possibilities for contamination. E. coli is a gram-negative, rod shaped bacteria commonly found in the intestines of animals; while some strains are harmless, others produce dangerous toxins that can cause side effects and sometimes death. Along with E. coli, inorganic nutrient concentrations (orthophosphate, nitrate/nitrite, and ammonium) are key indicators of water quality. Dissolved nutrients promote the growth of primary producers and excessive amounts lead to algal blooms, often reducing biodiversity. Four sites were sampled weekly in June and July 2017; during which, June had the highest rainfall in comparison to the past three years; these four sites represented three different sub-watersheds of the Bayou Chico Watershed, with differing land-use at each site. Historical nutrient and bacterial data from the Bream Fishermen Association was also compared and examined to determine long term trends and obtain a more in-depth understanding of the dynamics of water quality in th urban setting. E. coli levels were universally high (ranging from 98 to 12,997 MPN/100mL) for all sites and did not show observable correlations to rainfall; possibly influenced by the systemic and anomalous heavy precipitation during most of the summer study period. Nitrate was detected at levels between 2.5 and 154.0 µM, while ammonium levels ranged from 0 to 16.1 µM. Three of four stations showed extremely elevated dissolved inorganic nitrogen and ammonium while one station showed low levels of these nutrients. Correlations between these nutrient loads and rainfall, support the hypothesis that runoff into tributary creeks contributes significant inorganic nutrient loads to the Bayou Chico urban estuary.

  4. Prediction of geomagnetic storms from solar wind data with the use of a neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lundstedt

    Full Text Available An artificial feed-forward neural network with one hidden layer and error back-propagation learning is used to predict the geomagnetic activity index (Dst one hour in advance. The Bz-component and ΣBz, the density, and the velocity of the solar wind are used as input to the network. The network is trained on data covering a total of 8700 h, extracted from the 25-year period from 1963 to 1987, taken from the NSSDC data base. The performance of the network is examined with test data, not included in the training set, which covers 386 h and includes four different storms. Whilst the network predicts the initial and main phase well, the recovery phase is not modelled correctly, implying that a single hidden layer error back-propagation network is not enough, if the measured Dst is not available instantaneously. The performance of the network is independent of whether the raw parameters are used, or the electric field and square root of the dynamical pressure.

  5. Catalog of solar particle events 1955--1969

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1975-01-01

    This catalog, which is a common enterprise of solar physicists and space scientists, consists of three parts. The first part contains a complete list of 732 particle events of solar origin recorded at the Earth or in space from the first PCA observation in 1955 up to the end of 1969; it thus covers two solar cycle maxima. Each particle event is described in detail by using many unpublished data, kindly made available by more than 20 space scientists. A group of solar experts has tried to look up the source, or alternative sources, of each particle event on the Sun. These sources (with estimates of ''certainty'') are presented, and all the flares which have been considered to be obvious or probable sources of the particle events are summarized in the second part of the catalog, with a description of their characteristic features in the optical, radio, and X-ray spectral range. Finally, the third part describes the active regions in which these flares occurred, including magnetic field maps, plage and sunspot group configurations, flare positions (often with flare photographs), data on the active region development, and bibliography

  6. The virtual enhancements - solar proton event radiation (VESPER) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminalragia-Giamini, Sigiava; Sandberg, Ingmar; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Jiggens, Piers

    2018-02-01

    A new probabilistic model introducing a novel paradigm for the modelling of the solar proton environment at 1 AU is presented. The virtual enhancements - solar proton event radiation model (VESPER) uses the European space agency's solar energetic particle environment modelling (SEPEM) Reference Dataset and produces virtual time-series of proton differential fluxes. In this regard it fundamentally diverges from the approach of existing SPE models that are based on probabilistic descriptions of SPE macroscopic characteristics such as peak flux and cumulative fluence. It is shown that VESPER reproduces well the dataset characteristics it uses, and further comparisons with existing models are made with respect to their results. The production of time-series as the main output of the model opens a straightforward way for the calculation of solar proton radiation effects in terms of time-series and the pairing with effects caused by trapped radiation and galactic cosmic rays.

  7. Solar particle radiation storms forecasting and analysis the HESPERIA HORIZON 2020 project and beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Crosby, Norma

    2018-01-01

    Solar energetic particles (SEPs) emitted from the Sun are a major space weather hazard motivating the development of predictive capabilities. This book presents the results and findings of the HESPERIA (High Energy Solar Particle Events forecasting and Analysis) project of the EU HORIZON 2020 programme. It discusses the forecasting operational tools developed within the project, and presents progress to SEP research contributed by HESPERIA both from the observational as well as the SEP modelling perspective. Using multi-frequency observational data and simulations HESPERIA investigated the chain of processes from particle acceleration in the corona, particle transport in the magnetically complex corona and interplanetary space, to the detection near 1 AU. The book also elaborates on the unique software that has been constructed for inverting observations of relativistic SEPs to physical parameters that can be compared with spac e-borne measurements at lower energies. Introductory and pedagogical material incl...

  8. Concentrations and loads of suspended sediment-associated pesticides in the San Joaquin River, California and tributaries during storm events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hladik, M.L.; Domagalski, Joseph L.; Kuivila, K.M.

    2009-01-01

    Current-use pesticides associated with suspended sediments were measured in the San Joaquin River, California and its tributaries during two storm events in 2008. Nineteen pesticides were detected: eight herbicides, nine insecticides, one fungicide and one insecticide synergist. Concentrations for the herbicides (0.1 to 3000 ng/g; median of 6.1 ng/g) were generally greater than those for the insecticides (0.2 to 51 ng/g; median of 1.5 ng/g). Concentrations in the tributaries were usually greater than in the mainstem San Joaquin River and the west side tributaries were higher than the east side tributaries. Estimated instantaneous loads ranged from 1.3 to 320 g/day for herbicides and 0.03 to 53 g/day for insecticides. The greatest instantaneous loads came from the Merced River on the east side. Instantaneous loads were greater for the first storm of 2008 than the second storm in the tributaries while the instantaneous loads within the San Joaquin River were greater during the second storm. Pesticide detections generally reflected pesticide application, but other factors such as physical-chemical properties and timing of application were also important to pesticide loads.

  9. SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS AND THE KIPLINGER EFFECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahler, S. W.

    2012-01-01

    The Kiplinger effect is an observed association of solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events with a 'soft-hard-harder' (SHH) spectral evolution during the extended phases of the associated solar hard (E > 30 keV) X-ray (HXR) flares. Besides its possible use as a space weather predictor of SEP events, the Kiplinger effect has been interpreted as evidence of SEP production in the flare site itself, contradicting the widely accepted view that particles of large SEP events are predominately or entirely accelerated in shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We review earlier work to develop flare soft X-ray (SXR) and HXR spectra as SEP event forecast tools and then examine recent Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) evidence supporting the association of SHH HXR flares with large SEP events. We point out that ad hoc prediction criteria using the CME widths and SXR flare durations of associated RHESSI hard X-ray bursts (HXBs) can yield results comparable to those of the SHH prediction criteria. An examination of the RHESSI dynamic plots reveals several ambiguities in the determination of whether and when the SHH criteria are fulfilled, which must be quantified and applied consistently before an SHH-based predictive tool can be made. A comparative HXR spectral study beginning with the large population of relatively smaller SEP events has yet to be done, and we argue that those events will not be so well predicted by the SHH criteria. SHH HXR flares and CMEs are both components of large eruptive flare events, which accounts for the good connection of the SHH HXR flares with SEP events.

  10. Ground-based solar radio observations of the August 1972 events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhonsle, R.V.; Degaonkar, S.S.; Alurkar, S.K.

    1976-01-01

    Ground-based observations of the variable solar radio emission ranging from few millimetres to decametres have been used here as a diagnostic tool to gain coherent phenomenological understanding of the great 2, 4 and 7 August, 1972 solar events in terms of dominant physical processes like generation and propagation of shock waves in the solar atmosphere, particle acceleration and trapping. Four major flares are selected for detailed analysis on the basis of their ability to produce energetic protons, shock waves, polar cap absorptions (PCA) and sudden commencement (SC) geomagnetic storms. A comparative study of their radio characteristics is made. Evidence is seen for the pulsations during microwave bursts by the mechanism similar to that proposed by McLean et al. (1971), to explain the pulsations in the metre wavelength continuum radiation. It is suggested that the multiple peaks observed in some microwave bursts may be attributable to individual flares occurring sequentially due to a single initiating flare. Attempts have been made to establish identification of Type II bursts with the interplanetary shock waves and SC geomagnetic storms. Furthermore, it is suggested that it is the mass behind the shock front which is the deciding factor for the detection of shock waves in the interplantary space. It appears that more work is necessary in order to identify which of the three moving Type IV bursts (Wild and Smerd, 1972), namely, advancing shock front, expanding magnetic arch and ejected plasma blob serves as the piston-driver behind the interplanetary shocks. The existing criteria for proton flare prediction have been summarized and two new criteria have been proposed. (Auth.)

  11. Role of neutral wind and storm time electric fields inferred from the storm time ionization distribution at low latitudes: in-situ measurements by Indian satellite SROSS-C2

    OpenAIRE

    Subrahmanyam , P.; Jain , A. R.; Singh , L.; Garg , S. C.

    2005-01-01

    Recently, there has been a renewal of interest in the study of the effects of solar weather events on the ionization redistribution and irregularity generation. The observed changes at low and equatorial latitudes are rather complex and are noted to be a function of location, the time of the storm onset and its intensity, and various other characteristics of the geomagnetic storms triggered by solar weather events. At these latitudes, the effects of geomagnetic storms are basically due to (a)...

  12. Solar-Terrestrial Interactions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kahler, Stephen W

    2008-01-01

    ...) particle events, the solar wind, and geomagnetic storms. The investigators, working at Hanscom AFB, MA, have used many different kinds of space- and ground-based observations and have collaborated with workers at various institutions in this work...

  13. Composition of heavy ions in solar energetic particle events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, C.Y.; Gloeckler, G.

    1983-01-01

    The elemental, charge state, and isotopic composition of approximately 1 to 20 MeV per nucleon ions in solar energetic particle (SEP) events was determined and current understanding of the nature of solar and interplanetary processes which may explain the observations are outlined. The composition within individual SEP events may vary both with time and energy, and will in general be different from that in other SEP events. Average values of relative abundances measured in a large number of SEP events, however are found to be roughly energy independent in the approximately 1 to approximately 20 MeV per nucleon range, and show a systematic deviation from photospheric abundances which seem to be organized in terms of the first ionization potential of the ion. Direct measurements of the charge states of SEPs have revealed the surprisingly common presence of energetic He(+) along with heavy ions with typical coronal ionization states. High resolution measurements of isotopic abundance ratios in a small number of SEP events show these to be consistent with the universal composition except for the puzzling overabundance of the SEP Ne-22 relative to this isotopes ratio in the solar wind

  14. Solar forced Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their phase relation with solar proxies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Peter; Braun, H.; Chialvo, D. R.

    2008-01-01

    of a highly nonlinear system to quasi-periodic solar forcing plus noise. This hypothesis was challenged as inconsistent with the observed variability in the phase relation between proxies of solar activity and Greenland climate. Here we reject the claim of inconsistency by showing that this phase variability...... is a robust, generic feature of the nonlinear dynamics of DO events, as described by a model. This variability is expected from the fact that the events are threshold crossing events, resulting from a cooperative process between the periodic forcing and the noise. This process produces a fluctuating phase...

  15. A Short-term ESPERTA-based Forecast Tool for Moderate-to-extreme Solar Proton Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurenza, M.; Alberti, T.; Cliver, E. W.

    2018-04-01

    The ESPERTA (Empirical model for Solar Proton Event Real Time Alert) forecast tool has a Probability of Detection (POD) of 63% for all >10 MeV events with proton peak intensity ≥10 pfu (i.e., ≥S1 events, S1 referring to minor storms on the NOAA Solar Radiation Storms scale), from 1995 to 2014 with a false alarm rate (FAR) of 38% and a median (minimum) warning time (WT) of ∼4.8 (0.4) hr. The NOAA space weather scale includes four additional categories: moderate (S2), strong (S3), severe (S4), and extreme (S5). As S1 events have only minor impacts on HF radio propagation in the polar regions, the effective threshold for significant space radiation effects appears to be the S2 level (100 pfu), above which both biological and space operation impacts are observed along with increased effects on HF propagation in the polar regions. We modified the ESPERTA model to predict ≥S2 events and obtained a POD of 75% (41/55) and an FAR of 24% (13/54) for the 1995–2014 interval with a median (minimum) WT of ∼1.7 (0.2) hr based on predictions made at the time of the S1 threshold crossing. The improved performance of ESPERTA for ≥S2 events is a reflection of the big flare syndrome, which postulates that the measures of the various manifestations of eruptive solar flares increase as one considers increasingly larger events.

  16. Solar flares associated coronal mass ejection accompanied with DH type II radio burst in relation with interplanetary magnetic field, geomagnetic storms and cosmic ray intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Harish; Bhatt, Beena

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we have selected 114 flare-CME events accompanied with Deca-hectometric (DH) type II radio burst chosen from 1996 to 2008 (i.e., solar cycle 23). Statistical analyses are performed to examine the relationship of flare-CME events accompanied with DH type II radio burst with Interplanetary Magnetic field (IMF), Geomagnetic storms (GSs) and Cosmic Ray Intensity (CRI). The collected sample events are divided into two groups. In the first group, we considered 43 events which lie under the CME span and the second group consists of 71 events which are outside the CME span. Our analysis indicates that flare-CME accompanied with DH type II radio burst is inconsistent with CSHKP flare-CME model. We apply the Chree analysis by the superposed epoch method to both set of data to find the geo-effectiveness. We observed different fluctuations in IMF for arising and decay phase of solar cycle in both the cases. Maximum decrease in Dst during arising and decay phase of solar cycle is different for both the cases. It is noted that when flare lie outside the CME span CRI shows comparatively more variation than the flare lie under the CME span. Furthermore, we found that flare lying under the CME span is more geo effective than the flare outside of CME span. We noticed that the time leg between IMF Peak value and GSs, IMF and CRI is on average one day for both the cases. Also, the time leg between CRI and GSs is on average 0 to 1 day for both the cases. In case flare lie under the CME span we observed high correlation (0.64) between CRI and Dst whereas when flare lie outside the CME span a weak correlation (0.47) exists. Thus, flare position with respect to CME span play a key role for geo-effectiveness of CME.

  17. Solar wind variations and geomagnetic storms - A study of individual storms based on high time resolution ISEE 3 data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akasofu, S.-I.; Olmsted, C.; Smith, E. J.; Tsurutani, B.; Okida, R.; Baker, D. N.

    1985-01-01

    Two independent methods are employed to determine the relationship between the parameter epsilon and total energy dissipation rate of the magnetosphere U sub T by selecting disturbed periods from the same data d set used by Baker et al. (1983). Specifically, four storms are examined in detail, since the accuracy of estimating U sub T is significantly improved during disturbed periods. The first method assumes that U sub T = M sub A exp.2- alpha(epsilon) where M sub A is the Alfven Mach number and alpha varies with time. The second method considers a linear, time-invariant dynamic system with epsilon as input and U sub T as output. This means that U sub T = W(asterisk)epsilon where asterisk is the convolution and W is a transfer function characteristic of the system. It is found that alpha values fluctuate mainly between 0 and -0.25. The transfer function analysis indicates that W often resembles a delta-function or a narrow rectangular impulse. Both results give the same implication (namely that U sub T is approximately equal to epsilon) and thus are consistent with the view that the magnetosphere is primarily a directly driven system during disturbed periods.

  18. Electron–Ion Intensity Dropouts in Gradual Solar Energetic Particle Events during Solar Cycle 23

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Lun C.

    2017-01-01

    Since the field-line mixing model of Giacalone et al. suggests that ion dropouts cannot happen in the “gradual” solar energetic particle (SEP) event because of the large size of the particle source region in the event, the observational evidence of ion dropouts in the gradual SEP event should challenge the model. We have searched for the presence of ion dropouts in the gradual SEP event during solar cycle 23. From 10 SEP events the synchronized occurrence of ion and electron dropouts is identified in 12 periods. Our main observational facts, including the mean width of electron–ion dropout periods being consistent with the solar wind correlation scale, during the dropout period the dominance of the slab turbulence component and the enhanced turbulence power parallel to the mean magnetic field, and the ion gyroradius dependence of the edge steepness in dropout periods, are all in support of the solar wind turbulence origin of dropout events. Also, our observation indicates that a wide longitude distribution of SEP events could be due to the increase of slab turbulence fraction with the increased longitude distance from the flare-associated active region.

  19. Electron-Ion Intensity Dropouts in Gradual Solar Energetic Particle Events during Solar Cycle 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Lun C.

    2017-09-01

    Since the field-line mixing model of Giacalone et al. suggests that ion dropouts cannot happen in the “gradual” solar energetic particle (SEP) event because of the large size of the particle source region in the event, the observational evidence of ion dropouts in the gradual SEP event should challenge the model. We have searched for the presence of ion dropouts in the gradual SEP event during solar cycle 23. From 10 SEP events the synchronized occurrence of ion and electron dropouts is identified in 12 periods. Our main observational facts, including the mean width of electron-ion dropout periods being consistent with the solar wind correlation scale, during the dropout period the dominance of the slab turbulence component and the enhanced turbulence power parallel to the mean magnetic field, and the ion gyroradius dependence of the edge steepness in dropout periods, are all in support of the solar wind turbulence origin of dropout events. Also, our observation indicates that a wide longitude distribution of SEP events could be due to the increase of slab turbulence fraction with the increased longitude distance from the flare-associated active region.

  20. Electron–Ion Intensity Dropouts in Gradual Solar Energetic Particle Events during Solar Cycle 23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tan, Lun C., E-mail: ltan@umd.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Since the field-line mixing model of Giacalone et al. suggests that ion dropouts cannot happen in the “gradual” solar energetic particle (SEP) event because of the large size of the particle source region in the event, the observational evidence of ion dropouts in the gradual SEP event should challenge the model. We have searched for the presence of ion dropouts in the gradual SEP event during solar cycle 23. From 10 SEP events the synchronized occurrence of ion and electron dropouts is identified in 12 periods. Our main observational facts, including the mean width of electron–ion dropout periods being consistent with the solar wind correlation scale, during the dropout period the dominance of the slab turbulence component and the enhanced turbulence power parallel to the mean magnetic field, and the ion gyroradius dependence of the edge steepness in dropout periods, are all in support of the solar wind turbulence origin of dropout events. Also, our observation indicates that a wide longitude distribution of SEP events could be due to the increase of slab turbulence fraction with the increased longitude distance from the flare-associated active region.

  1. Composition of heavy ions in solar energetic particle events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, C.Y.; Gloeckler, G.

    1983-01-01

    Recent advances in determining the elemental, charge state, and isotopic composition of approximatelt 1 to 20 MeV per nucleon ions in solar energetic particle (SEP) events and outline our current understanding of the nature of solar and interplanetary processes which may explain the observations. Average values of relative abundances measured in a large number of SEP events were found to be roughly energy independent in the approx. 1 to approx. 20 MeV per nucleon range, and showed a systematic deviation from photospheric abundances which seems to be organized in terms of the first ionization potential of the ion. Direct measurements of the charge states of SEPs revealed the surprisingly common presence of energetic He(+) along with heavy ion with typically coronal ionization states. High resolution measurements of isotopic abundance ratios in a small number of SEP events showed these to be consistent with the universal composition except for the puzzling overabundance of the SEP(22)Ne/(20)Ne relative to this isotopes ratio in the solar wind. The broad spectrum of observed elemental abundance variations, which in their extreme result in composition anomalies characteristic of (3)He rich, heavy ion rich and carbon poor SEP events, along with direct measurements of the ionization states of SEPs provided essential information on the physical characteristics of, and conditions in the source regions, as well as important constraints to possible models for SEP production

  2. Relating Solar Energetic Particle Event Fluences to Peak Intensities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, Stephen W.; Ling, Alan G.

    2018-02-01

    Recently we (Kahler and Ling, Solar Phys. 292, 59, 2017: KL) have shown that time-intensity profiles [I(t)] of 14 large solar energetic particle (SEP) events can be fitted with a simple two-parameter fit, the modified Weibull function, which is characterized by shape and scaling parameters [α and β]. We now look for a simple correlation between an event peak energy intensity [Ip] and the time integral of I(t) over the event duration: the fluence [F]. We first ask how the ratio of F/Ip varies for the fits of the 14 KL events and then examine that ratio for three separate published statistical studies of SEP events in which both F and Ip were measured for comparisons of those parameters with various solar-flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) parameters. The three studies included SEP energies from a 4 - 13 MeV band to E > 100 MeV. Within each group of SEP events, we find a very robust correlation (CC > 0.90) in log-log plots of F versus Ip over four decades of Ip. The ratio increases from western to eastern longitudes. From the value of Ip for a given event, F can be estimated to within a standard deviation of a factor of {≤} 2. Log-log plots of two studies are consistent with slopes of unity, but the third study shows plot slopes of { 10 MeV to {>} 100 MeV. This difference is not explained.

  3. Reply: Comparison of slope instability screening tools following a large storm event and application to forest management and policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, Kara A.; McShane, Dan

    2013-02-01

    A large storm event in southwest Washington State triggered over 2500 landslides and provided an opportunity to assess two slope stability screening tools. The statistical analysis conducted demonstrated that both screening tools are effective at predicting where landslides were likely to take place (Whittaker and McShane, 2012). Here we reply to two discussions of this article related to the development of the slope stability screening tools and the accuracy and scale of the spatial data used. Neither of the discussions address our statistical analysis or results. We provide greater detail on our sampling criteria and also elaborate on the policy and management implications of our findings and how they complement those of a separate investigation of landslides resulting from the same storm. The conclusions made in Whittaker and McShane (2012) stand as originally published unless future analysis indicates otherwise.

  4. DOES A SCALING LAW EXIST BETWEEN SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS AND SOLAR FLARES?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahler, S. W.

    2013-01-01

    Among many other natural processes, the size distributions of solar X-ray flares and solar energetic particle (SEP) events are scale-invariant power laws. The measured distributions of SEP events prove to be distinctly flatter, i.e., have smaller power-law slopes, than those of the flares. This has led to speculation that the two distributions are related through a scaling law, first suggested by Hudson, which implies a direct nonlinear physical connection between the processes producing the flares and those producing the SEP events. We present four arguments against this interpretation. First, a true scaling must relate SEP events to all flare X-ray events, and not to a small subset of the X-ray event population. We also show that the assumed scaling law is not mathematically valid and that although the flare X-ray and SEP event data are correlated, they are highly scattered and not necessarily related through an assumed scaling of the two phenomena. An interpretation of SEP events within the context of a recent model of fractal-diffusive self-organized criticality by Aschwanden provides a physical basis for why the SEP distributions should be flatter than those of solar flares. These arguments provide evidence against a close physical connection of flares with SEP production.

  5. Characterisation of diffuse pollutions from forested watersheds in Japan during storm events - its association with rainfall and watershed features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhao; Fukushima, Takehiko; Onda, Yuichi; Mizugaki, Shigeru; Gomi, Takashi; Kosugi, Ken'ichirou; Hiramatsu, Shinya; Kitahara, Hikaru; Kuraji, Koichiro; Terajima, Tomomi; Matsushige, Kazuo; Tao, Fulu

    2008-02-01

    Forest areas have been identified as important sources of nonpoint pollution in Japan. The managers must estimate stormwater quality and quantities from forested watersheds to develop effective management strategies. Therefore, stormwater runoff loads and concentrations of 10 constituents (total suspended solids, dissolved organic carbon, PO(4)-P, dissolved total phosphorus, total phosphorus, NH(4)-N, NO(2)-N, NO(3)-N, dissolved total nitrogen, and total nitrogen) for 72 events across five regions (Aichi, Kochi, Mie, Nagano, and Tokyo) were characterised. Most loads were significantly and positively correlated with stormwater variables (total event rainfall, event duration, and rainfall intensity), but most discharge-weighted event concentrations (DWECs) showed negative correlations with rainfall intensity. Mean water quality concentration during baseflow was correlated significantly with storm concentrations (r=0.41-0.77). Although all pollutant load equations showed high coefficients of determination (R(2)=0.55-0.80), no models predicted well pollutant concentrations, except those for the three N constituents (R(2)=0.59-0.67). Linear regressions to estimate stormwater concentrations and loads were greatly improved by regional grouping. The lower prediction capability of the concentration models for Mie, compared with the other four regions, indicated that other watershed or storm characteristics should be included in the prediction models. Significant differences among regions were found more frequently in concentrations than in loads for all constituents. Since baseflow conditions implied available pollutant sources for stormwater, the similar spatial characteristics of pollutant concentrations between baseflow and stormflow conditions were an important control for stormwater quality.

  6. Changing Sediment Dynamics of a Mature Backbarrier Salt Marsh in Response to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Schuerch

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Our study analyses the long-term development of a tidal backbarrier salt marsh in the northern German Wadden Sea. The focus lies on the development of the high-lying, inner, mature part of the salt marsh, which shows a striking history of changing sediment dynamics. The analysis of high-resolution old aerial photographs and sampled sediment cores suggests that the mature part of the marsh was shielded by a sand barrier from the open sea for decades. The supply with fine-grained sediments occurred from the marsh inlet through the tidal channels to the inner salt marsh. Radiometric dating (210Pb and 137Cs reveals that the sedimentation pattern changed fundamentally around the early-mid 1980s when the sedimentation rates increased sharply. By analyzing the photographic evidence, we found that the sand barrier was breached during storm events in the early 1980s. As a result, coarse-grained sediments were brought directly through this overwash from the sea to the mature part of the salt marsh and increased the sedimentation rates. We show that the overwash and the channels created by these storm events built a direct connection to the sea and reduced the distance to the sediment source which promoted salt marsh growth and a supply with coarse-grained sediments. Consequently, the original sediment input from the tidal channels is found to play a minor role in the years following the breach event. The presented study showcases the morphological development of a mature marsh, which contradicts the commonly accepted paradigm of decreasing sedimentation rates with increasing age of the marsh. We argue that similar trends are likely to be observed in other backbarrier marshes, developing in the shelter of unstabilized sand barriers. It further highlights the question of how resilient these salt marshes are toward sea level rise and how extreme storm events interfere in determining the resilience of a mature salt marsh.

  7. A STATISTICAL STUDY OF SOLAR ELECTRON EVENTS OVER ONE SOLAR CYCLE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Linghua; Lin, R. P.; Krucker, Säm; Mason, Glenn M.

    2012-01-01

    We survey the statistical properties of 1191 solar electron events observed by the WIND 3DP instrument from 300 keV for a solar cycle (1995 through 2005). After taking into account times of high background, the corrected occurrence frequency of solar electron events versus peak flux exhibits a power-law distribution over three orders of magnitude with exponents between –1.0 and –1.6 for different years, comparable to the frequency distribution of solar proton events, microflares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but significantly flatter than that of soft X-ray (SXR) flares. At 40 keV (2.8 keV), the integrated occurrence rate above ∼0.29 (∼330) cm –2 s –1 sr –1 keV –1 near 1 AU is ∼1000 year –1 (∼600 year –1 ) at solar maximum and ∼35 year –1 (∼25 year –1 ) at solar minimum, about an order of magnitude larger than the observed occurrence rate. We find these events typically extend over ∼45° in longitude, implying the occurrence rate over the whole Sun is ∼10 4 year –1 near solar maximum. The observed solar electron events have a 98.75% association with type III radio bursts, suggesting all type III bursts may be associated with a solar electron event. They have a close (∼76%) association with the presence of low-energy (∼0.02-2 MeV nucleon –1 ), 3 He-rich ( 3 He/ 4 He ≥ 0.01) ion emissions measured by the ACE ULEIS instrument. For these electron events, only ∼35% are associated with a reported GOES SXR flare, but ∼60% appear to be associated with a CME, with ∼50% of these CMEs being narrow. These electrons are often detected down to below 1 keV, indicating a source high in the corona.

  8. Fast drift kilometric radio bursts and solar proton events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliver, E. W.; Kahler, S. W.; Cane, H. V.; Mcguire, R. E.; Vonrosenvinge, T. T.; Stone, R. G.

    1985-01-01

    Initial results of a comparative study of major fast drift kilometric bursts and solar proton events from Sep. 1978 to Feb. 1983 are presented. It was found that only about half of all intense, long duration ( 40 min above 500 sfu) 1 MHz bursts can be associated with F 20 MeV proton events. However, for the subset of such fast drift bursts accompanied by metric Type 2 and/or 4 activity (approximately 40% of the total), the degree of association with 20 MeV events is 80%. For the reverse association, it was found that proton events with J( 20 MeV) 0.01 1 pr cm(-2)s(-1)sr(-1)MeV(-1) were typically (approximately 80% of the time) preceded by intense 1 MHz bursts that exceeded the 500 sfu level for times 20 min (median duration approximately 35 min).

  9. Fast drift kilometric radio bursts and solar proton events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cliver, E.W.; Kahler, S.W.; Cane, H.V.; Mcguire, R.E.; Vonrosenvinge, T.T.; Stone, R.G.

    1985-01-01

    Initial results of a comparative study of major fast drift kilometric bursts and solar proton events from Sep. 1978 to Feb. 1983 are presented. It was found that only about half of all intense, long duration ( 40 min above 500 sfu) 1 MHz bursts can be associated with F 20 MeV proton events. However, for the subset of such fast drift bursts accompanied by metric Type 2 and/or 4 activity (approximately 40% of the total), the degree of association with 20 MeV events is 80%. For the reverse association, it was found that proton events with J( 20 MeV) 0.01 1 pr cm(-2)s(-1)sr(-1)MeV(-1) were typically (approximately 80% of the time) preceded by intense 1 MHz bursts that exceeded the 500 sfu level for times of approx. 20 min (median duration approximately 35 min)

  10. High-Energy Solar Particle Events in Cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Makela, P.; Yashiro, S.; Xie, H.; Akiyama, S.; Thakur, N.

    2015-01-01

    The Sun is already in the declining phase of cycle 24, but the paucity of high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) events continues with only two ground level enhancement (GLE) events as of March 31, 2015. In an attempt to understand this, we considered all the large SEP events of cycle 24 that occurred until the end of 2014. We compared the properties of the associated CMEs with those in cycle 23. We found that the CME speeds in the sky plane were similar, but almost all those cycle-24 CMEs were halos. A significant fraction of (16%) of the frontside SEP events were associated with eruptive prominence events. CMEs associated with filament eruption events accelerate slowly and attain peak speeds beyond the typical GLE release heights. When we considered only western hemispheric events that had good connectivity to the CME nose, there were only 8 events that could be considered as GLE candidates. One turned out to be the first GLE event of cycle 24 (2012 May 17). In two events, the CMEs were very fast (>2000 km/s) but they were launched into a tenuous medium (high Alfven speed). In the remaining five events, the speeds were well below the typical GLE CME speed (2000 km/s). Furthermore, the CMEs attained their peak speeds beyond the typical heights where GLE particles are released. We conclude that several factors contribute to the low rate of high-energy SEP events in cycle 24: (i) reduced efficiency of shock acceleration (weak heliospheric magnetic field), (ii) poor latitudinal and longitudinal connectivity), and (iii) variation in local ambient conditions (e.g., high Alfven speed).

  11. Current understanding of magnetic storms: Storm-substorm relationships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamide, Y.; Gonzalez, W.D.; Baumjohann, W.; Daglis, I.A.; Grande, M.; Joselyn, J.A.; Singer, H.J.; McPherron, R.L.; Phillips, J.L.; Reeves, E.G.; Rostoker, G.; Sharma, A.S.; Tsurutani, B.T.

    1998-01-01

    This paper attempts to summarize the current understanding of the storm/substorm relationship by clearing up a considerable amount of controversy and by addressing the question of how solar wind energy is deposited into and is dissipated in the constituent elements that are critical to magnetospheric and ionospheric processes during magnetic storms. (1) Four mechanisms are identified and discussed as the primary causes of enhanced electric fields in the interplanetary medium responsible for geomagnetic storms. It is pointed out that in reality, these four mechanisms, which are not mutually exclusive, but interdependent, interact differently from event to event. Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are found to be the primary phenomena responsible for the main phase of geomagnetic storms. The other two mechanisms, i.e., HILDCAA (high-intensity, long-duration, continuous auroral electrojet activity) and the so-called Russell-McPherron effect, work to make the ICME and CIR phenomena more geoeffective. The solar cycle dependence of the various sources in creating magnetic storms has yet to be quantitatively understood. (2) A serious controversy exists as to whether the successive occurrence of intense substorms plays a direct role in the energization of ring current particles or whether the enhanced electric field associated with southward IMF enhances the effect of substorm expansions. While most of the Dst variance during magnetic storms can be solely reproduced by changes in the large-scale electric field in the solar wind and the residuals are uncorrelated with substorms, recent satellite observations of the ring current constituents during the main phase of magnetic storms show the importance of ionospheric ions. This implies that ionospheric ions, which are associated with the frequent occurrence of intense substorms, are accelerated upward along magnetic field lines, contributing to the energy density of the

  12. Forecasting of integral parameters of solar cosmic ray events according to initial characteristics of an event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belovskij, M.N.; Ochelkov, Yu.P.

    1981-01-01

    The forecasting method for an integral proton flux of solar cosmic rays (SCR) based on the initial characteristics of the phe-- nomenon is proposed. The efficiency of the method is grounded. The accuracy of forecasting is estimated and the retrospective forecasting of real events is carried out. The parameters of the universal function describing the time progress of the SCR events are pre-- sented. The proposed method is suitable for forecasting practically all the SCR events. The timeliness of the given forecasting is not worse than that of the forecasting based on utilization of the SCR propagation models [ru

  13. Space storms as natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Eruptive activity of the Sun produces a chain of extreme geophysical events: high-speed solar wind, magnetic field disturbances in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field and also intense fluxes of energetic particles. Space storms can potentially destroy spacecrafts, adversely affect astronauts and airline crew and human health on the Earth, lead to pipeline breaking, melt electricity transformers, and discontinue transmission. In this paper we deal with two consequences of space storms: (i rise in failures in the operation of railway devices and (ii rise in myocardial infarction and stroke incidences.

  14. SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT ONSETS: FAR BACKSIDE SOLAR SOURCES AND THE EAST–WEST HEMISPHERIC ASYMMETRY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahler, S. W., E-mail: stephen.kahler@kirtland.af.mil [Air Force Research Laboratory, Space Vehicles Directorate, 3550 Aberdeen Avenue, Kirtland AFB, NM 87117 (United States)

    2016-03-10

    Prompt onsets and short rise times to peak intensities Ip have been noted in a few solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events from far behind (≥25°) the west limb. We discuss 15 archival and recent examples of these prompt events, giving their source longitudes, onset and rise times, and associated coronal mass ejection (CME) speeds. Their timescales and CME speeds are not exceptional in comparison with a larger set of SEP events from behind the west limb. A further statistical comparison of observed timescales of SEP events from behind the west limb with events similarly poorly magnetically connected to the eastern hemisphere (EH) shows the longer timescales of the latter group. We interpret this result in terms of a difference between SEP production at parallel shocks on the eastern flanks of western backside events and at perpendicular shocks on the western flanks of EH events.

  15. THE 'TWIN-CME' SCENARIO AND LARGE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS IN SOLAR CYCLE 23

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding, Liuguan; Jiang, Yong; Zhao, Lulu; Li, Gang

    2013-01-01

    Energetic particles in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a major concern for space weather. Recently, Li et al. proposed a 'twin-CME' scenario for ground-level events. Here we extend that study to large SEP events in solar cycle 23. Depending on whether preceding coronal mass ejections (CMEs) within 9 hr exist and whether ions >10 MeV nucleon –1 exceed 10 pfu, we categorize fast CMEs with speed >900 km s –1 and width >60° from the western hemisphere source regions into four groups: groups I and II are 'twin' and single CMEs that lead to large SEPs; groups III and IV are 'twin' and single CMEs that do not lead to large SEPs. The major findings of this paper are: first, large SEP events tend to be 'twin-CME' events. Of 59 western large SEP events in solar cycle 23, 43 are 'twin-CME' (group I) events and 16 are single-CME (group II) events. Second, not all 'twin CMEs' produced large SEPs: 28 twin CMEs did not produce large SEPs (group III events). Some of them produced excesses of particles up to a few MeV nucleon –1 . Third, there were 39 single fast CMEs that did not produce SEPs (group IV events). Some of these also showed an excess of particles up to a few MeV nucleon –1 . For all four groups of events, we perform statistical analyses on properties such as the angular width, the speed, the existence of accompanying metric type II radio bursts, and the associated flare class for the main CMEs and the preceding CMEs.

  16. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particle event characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaioannou, Athanasios; Sandberg, Ingmar; Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Kouloumvakos, Athanasios; Georgoulis, Manolis K.; Tziotziou, Kostas; Tsiropoula, Georgia; Jiggens, Piers; Hilgers, Alain

    2016-12-01

    A new catalogue of 314 solar energetic particle (SEP) events extending over a large time span from 1984 to 2013 has been compiled. The properties as well as the associations of these SEP events with their parent solar sources have been thoroughly examined. The properties of the events include the proton peak integral flux and the fluence for energies above 10, 30, 60 and 100 MeV. The associated solar events were parametrized by solar flare (SF) and coronal mass ejection (CME) characteristics, as well as related radio emissions. In particular, for SFs: the soft X-ray (SXR) peak flux, the SXR fluence, the heliographic location, the rise time and the duration were exploited; for CMEs the plane-of-sky velocity as well as the angular width were utilized. For radio emissions, type III, II and IV radio bursts were identified. Furthermore, we utilized element abundances of Fe and O. We found evidence that most of the SEP events in our catalogue do not conform to a simple two-class paradigm, with the 73% of them exhibiting both type III and type II radio bursts, and that a continuum of event properties is present. Although, the so-called hybrid or mixed events are found to be present in our catalogue, it was not possible to attribute each SEP event to a mixed/hybrid sub-category. Moreover, it appears that the start of the type III burst most often precedes the maximum of the SF and thus falls within the impulsive phase of the associated SF. At the same time, type III bursts take place within ≈5.22 min, on average, in advance from the time of maximum of the derivative of the SXR flux (Neupert effect). We further performed a statistical analysis and a mapping of the logarithm of the proton peak flux at E > 10 MeV, on different pairs of the parent solar source characteristics. This revealed correlations in 3-D space and demonstrated that the gradual SEP events that stem from the central part of the visible solar disk constitute a significant radiation risk. The velocity of

  17. Forecasting solar proton event with artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, J.; Wang, J.; Xue, B.; Liu, S.; Zou, Z.

    Solar proton event (SPE), relatively rare but popular in solar maximum, can bring hazard situation to spacecraft. As a special event, SPE always accompanies flare, which is also called proton flare. To produce such an eruptive event, large amount energy must be accumulated within the active region. So we can investigate the character of the active region and its evolving trend, together with other such as cm radio emission and soft X-ray background to evaluate the potential of SEP in chosen area. In order to summarize the omen of SPEs in the active regions behind the observed parameters, we employed AI technology. Full connecting neural network was chosen to fulfil this job. After constructing the network, we train it with 13 parameters that was able to exhibit the character of active regions and their evolution trend. More than 80 sets of event parameter were defined to teach the neural network to identify whether an active region was potential of SPE. Then we test this model with a data base consisting SPE and non-SPE cases that was not used to train the neural network. The result showed that 75% of the choice by the model was right.

  18. Assessing cost-effectiveness of specific LID practice designs in response to large storm events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, Ting Fong May; Liu, Xin; Zhan, Wenting

    2016-02-01

    Low impact development (LID) practices have become more important in urban stormwater management worldwide. However, most research on design optimization focuses on relatively large scale, and there is very limited information or guideline regarding individual LID practice designs (i.e., optimal depth, width and length). The objective of this study is to identify the optimal design by assessing the hydrological performance and the cost-effectiveness of different designs of LID practices at a household or business scale, and to analyze the sensitivity of the hydrological performance and the cost of the optimal design to different model and design parameters. First, EPA SWMM, automatically controlled by MATLAB, is used to obtain the peak runoff of different designs of three specific LID practices (i.e., green roof, bioretention and porous pavement) under different design storms (i.e., 2 yr and 50 yr design storms of Hong Kong, China and Seattle, U.S.). Then, life cycle cost is estimated for the different designs, and the optimal design, defined as the design with the lowest cost and at least 20% peak runoff reduction, is identified. Finally, sensitivity of the optimal design to the different design parameters is examined. The optimal design of green roof tends to be larger in area but thinner, while the optimal designs of bioretention and porous pavement tend to be smaller in area. To handle larger storms, however, it is more effective to increase the green roof depth, and to increase the area of the bioretention and porous pavement. Porous pavement is the most cost-effective for peak flow reduction, followed by bioretention and then green roof. The cost-effectiveness, measured as the peak runoff reduction/thousand Dollars of LID practices in Hong Kong (e.g., 0.02 L/103 US s, 0.15 L/103 US s and 0.93 L/103 US s for green roof, bioretention and porous pavement for 2 yr storm) is lower than that in Seattle (e.g., 0.03 L/103 US s, 0.29 L/103 US s and 1.58 L/103 US s for

  19. Contributions of human activities to suspended-sediment yield during storm events from a steep, small, tropical watershed, American Samoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messina, A. T.; Biggs, T. W.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic watershed disturbance by agriculture, deforestation, roads, and urbanization can alter the timing, composition, and mass of sediment loads to adjacent coral reefs, causing enhanced sediment stress on corals near the outlets of impacted watersheds like Faga'alu, American Samoa. To quantify the increase in sediment loading to the adjacent priority coral reef experiencing sedimentation stress, suspended-sediment yield (SSY) from undisturbed and human-disturbed portions of a small, steep, tropical watershed was measured during baseflow and storm events of varying magnitude. Data on precipitation, discharge, turbidity, and suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) were collected over three field campaigns and continuous monitoring from January 2012 to March 2014, which included 88 storm events. A combination of paired- and nested-watershed study designs using sediment budget, disturbance ratio, and sediment rating curve methodologies was used to quantify the contribution of human-disturbed areas to total SSY. SSC during base- and stormflows was significantly higher downstream of an open-pit aggregate quarry, indicating the quarry is a key sediment source requiring sediment discharge mitigation. Comparison of event-wise SSY from the upper, undisturbed watershed, and the lower, human-disturbed watershed showed the Lower watershed accounted for more than 80% of total SSY on average, and human activities have increased total sediment loading to the coast by approximately 200%. Four storm characteristics were tested as predictors of event SSY using Pearson's and Spearman's correlation coefficients. Similar to mountainous watersheds in semi-arid and temperate watersheds, SSY from both the undisturbed and disturbed watersheds had the highest correlation with event maximum discharge, Qmax (Pearson's R=0.88 and 0.86 respectively), and were best fit by a power law relationship. The resulting model of event-SSY from Faga'alu is being incorporated as part of a larger

  20. Do Solar Coronal Holes Affect the Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Arge, C. N.; Akiyama, S.; Gopalswamy, N.

    2013-01-01

    The intensities and timescales of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events at 1 AU may depend not only on the characteristics of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but also on large-scale coronal and interplanetary structures. It has long been suspected that the presence of coronal holes (CHs) near the CMEs or near the 1-AU magnetic footpoints may be an important factor in SEP events. We used a group of 41 E (is) approx. 20 MeV SEP events with origins near the solar central meridian to search for such effects. First we investigated whether the presence of a CH directly between the sources of the CME and of the magnetic connection at 1 AU is an important factor. Then we searched for variations of the SEP events among different solar wind (SW) stream types: slow, fast, and transient. Finally, we considered the separations between CME sources and CH footpoint connections from 1 AU determined from four-day forecast maps based on Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory synoptic magnetic-field maps and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model of SW propagation. The observed in-situ magnetic-field polarities and SW speeds at SEP event onsets tested the forecast accuracies employed to select the best SEP/CH connection events for that analysis. Within our limited sample and the three analytical treatments, we found no statistical evidence for an effect of CHs on SEP event peak intensities, onset times, or rise times. The only exception is a possible enhancement of SEP peak intensities in magnetic clouds.

  1. Effects of land use and sample location on nitrate-stream flow hysteresis descriptors during storm events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinson, Lawrence S.; Gibs, Jacob; Imbrigiotta, Thomas E.; Garrett, Jessica D.

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's New Jersey and Iowa Water Science Centers deployed ultraviolet-visible spectrophotometric sensors at water-quality monitoring sites on the Passaic and Pompton Rivers at Two Bridges, New Jersey, on Toms River at Toms River, New Jersey, and on the North Raccoon River near Jefferson, Iowa to continuously measure in-stream nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen (NO3 + NO2) concentrations in conjunction with continuous stream flow measurements. Statistical analysis of NO3 + NO2 vs. stream discharge during storm events found statistically significant links between land use types and sampling site with the normalized area and rotational direction of NO3 + NO2-stream discharge (N-Q) hysteresis patterns. Statistically significant relations were also found between the normalized area of a hysteresis pattern and several flow parameters as well as the normalized area adjusted for rotational direction and minimum NO3 + NO2 concentrations. The mean normalized hysteresis area for forested land use was smaller than that of urban and agricultural land uses. The hysteresis rotational direction of the agricultural land use was opposite of that of the urban and undeveloped land uses. An r2 of 0.81 for the relation between the minimum normalized NO3 + NO2 concentration during a storm vs. the normalized NO3 + NO2 concentration at peak flow suggested that dilution was the dominant process controlling NO3 + NO2 concentrations over the course of most storm events.

  2. Type III-L Solar Radio Bursts and Solar Energetic Particle Events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffin, R T; White, S M; Ray, P S; Kaiser, M L

    2015-01-01

    A radio-selected sample of fast drift radio bursts with complex structure occurring after the impulsive phase of the associated flare (“Type III-L bursts”) is identified by inspection of radio dynamic spectra from 1 to 180 MHz for over 300 large flares in 2001. An operational definition that takes into account previous work on these radio bursts starting from samples of solar energetic particle (SEP) events is applied to the data, and 66 Type III-L bursts are found in the sample. In order to determine whether the presence of these radio bursts can be used to predict the occurrence of SEP events, we also develop a catalog of all SEP proton events in 2001 using data from the ERNE detector on the SOHO satellite. 68 SEP events are found, for 48 of which we can identify a solar source and hence look for associated Type III-L emission. We confirm previous work that found that most (76% in our sample) of the solar sources of SEP events exhibit radio emission of this type. However, the correlation in the opposite direction is not as strong: starting from a radio-selected sample of Type III-L events, around 64% of the bursts that occur at longitudes magnetically well-connected to the Earth, and hence favorable for detection of SEPs, are associated with SEP events. The degree of association increases when the events have durations over 10 minutes at 1 MHz, but in general Type III-L bursts do not perform any better than Type II bursts in our sample as predictors of SEP events. A comparison of Type III-L timing with the arrival of near-relativistic electrons at the ACE spacecraft is not inconsistent with a common source for the accelerated electrons in both phenomena. (paper)

  3. Type III-L Solar Radio Bursts and Solar Energetic Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffin, R. T.; White, S. M.; Ray, P. S.; Kaiser, M. L.

    2015-09-01

    A radio-selected sample of fast drift radio bursts with complex structure occurring after the impulsive phase of the associated flare (“Type III-L bursts”) is identified by inspection of radio dynamic spectra from 1 to 180 MHz for over 300 large flares in 2001. An operational definition that takes into account previous work on these radio bursts starting from samples of solar energetic particle (SEP) events is applied to the data, and 66 Type III-L bursts are found in the sample. In order to determine whether the presence of these radio bursts can be used to predict the occurrence of SEP events, we also develop a catalog of all SEP proton events in 2001 using data from the ERNE detector on the SOHO satellite. 68 SEP events are found, for 48 of which we can identify a solar source and hence look for associated Type III-L emission. We confirm previous work that found that most (76% in our sample) of the solar sources of SEP events exhibit radio emission of this type. However, the correlation in the opposite direction is not as strong: starting from a radio-selected sample of Type III-L events, around 64% of the bursts that occur at longitudes magnetically well-connected to the Earth, and hence favorable for detection of SEPs, are associated with SEP events. The degree of association increases when the events have durations over 10 minutes at 1 MHz, but in general Type III-L bursts do not perform any better than Type II bursts in our sample as predictors of SEP events. A comparison of Type III-L timing with the arrival of near-relativistic electrons at the ACE spacecraft is not inconsistent with a common source for the accelerated electrons in both phenomena.

  4. Causal relationships between solar proton events and single event upsets for communication satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmeyer, W. Q.; Cahoy, K.; Liu, Shiyang

    In this work, we analyze a historical archive of single event upsets (SEUs) maintained by Inmarsat, one of the world's leading providers of global mobile satellite communications services. Inmarsat has operated its geostationary communication satellites and collected extensive satellite anomaly and telemetry data since 1990. Over the course of the past twenty years, the satellites have experienced more than 226 single event upsets (SEUs), a catch-all term for anomalies that occur in a satellite's electronics such as bit-flips, trips in power supplies, and memory changes in attitude control systems. While SEUs are seemingly random and difficult to predict, we correlate their occurrences to space weather phenomena, and specifically show correlations between SEUs and solar proton events (SPEs). SPEs are highly energetic protons that originate from solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs). It is thought that when these particles impact geostationary (GEO) satellites they can cause SEUs as well as solar array degradation. We calculate the associated statistical correlations that each SEU occurs within one day, one week, two weeks, and one month of 10 MeV SPEs between 10 - 10,000 particle flux units (pfu). However, we find that SPEs are most prevalent at solar maximum and that the SEUs on Inmarsat's satellites occur out of phase with the solar maximum. Ultimately, this suggests that SPEs are not the primary cause of the Inmarsat SEUs. A better understanding of the causal relationship between SPEs and SEUs will help the satellite communications industry develop component and operational space weather mitigation techniques as well as help the space weather community to refine radiation models.

  5. Challenges in Downscaling Surge and Flooding Predictions Associated with Major Coastal Storm Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, M. J.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal zone managers, elected officials and emergency planning personnel are continually seeking more reliable estimates of storm surge and inundation for better land use planning, the design, construction and operation of coastal defense systems, resilience evaluation and evacuation planning. Customers of modern regional weather and storm surge prediction models demand high resolution, speed, accuracy, with informative, interactive graphics and easy evaluation of potentially dangerous threats to life and property. These challenges continue to get more difficult as the demand for street-scale and even building-scale predictions increase. Fluctuations in sub-grid-scale wind and water velocities can lead to unsuspected, unanticipated and dangerous flooding in local communities. But how reliable and believable are these models given the inherent natural uncertainty and chaotic behavior in the underlying dynamics, which can lead to rapid and unexpected perturbations in the wind and pressure fields and hence coastal flooding? Traditionally this uncertainty has been quantified by the use of the ensemble method, where a suite of model runs are made with varying physics and initial conditions, presenting the mean and variance of the ensemble as the best metrics possible. But this assumes that each component is equally possible and is statistically independent of the others. But this is rarely true, although the "safety in numbers" approach is comforting to those faced with life and death decisions. An example of the ensemble method is presented for the trajectory of superstorm Sandy's storm center as it approached coastal New Jersey. If one were to ask the question "was Sandy a worst case scenario", the answer would be "no: small variations in the timing (vis-à-vis tide phase) and location of landfall could easily have led to an additional surge of +50 cm at The Battery NY with even more catastrophic consequences to those experienced".

  6. The influence of solar active region evolution on solar wind streams, coronal hole boundaries and geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gold, R.E.; Dodson-Prince, H.W.; Hedeman, E.R.; Roelof, E.C.

    1982-01-01

    We have studied solar and interplanetary data by identification of the heliographic longitudes of the coronal source regions of high speed solar wind streams and by mapping the velocities measured near earth back to the sun using the approximation of constant radial velocity. Interplay of active regions and solar wind were studied

  7. Chart links solar, geophysical events with impacts on space technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, George R.

    While developing a Space Weather Training Program for Air Force Space Command and the 50th Weather Squadron, both based in Colorado, ARINC Incorporated produced a flowchart that correlates solar and geophysical events with their impacts on Air Force systems.Personnel from both organizations collaborated in the development of the flowchart and provided many comments and suggestions. The model became the centerpiece of the Space Environment Impacts Reference Pamphlet, as well as the formal Space Weather Training Program. Although it is not a numerical or computer model, the flowchart became known as the “Space Environmental Impacts Model.”

  8. The composition of heavy ions in solar energetic particle events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, C.Y.

    1984-01-01

    The composition within individual SEP events may vary both with time and energy, and will in general be different from that in other SEP events. Average values of relative abundances measured in a large number of SEP events, however, are found to be roughly energy independent in the proportional1 to proportional20 MeV per nucleon range, and show a systematic deviation from photospheric abundances which seems to be organized in terms of the first ionization potential of the ion. Direct measurements of the charge states of SEPs have revealed the surprisingly common presence of energetic He + along with heavy ions with typically coronal ionization states. High-resolution measurements of isotopic abundance ratios in a small number of SEP events show these to be consistent with the universal composition except for the puzzling overabundance of the SEP 22 Ne/ 20 Ne relative to this isotopes ratio in the solar wind. The broad spectrum of observed elemental abundance variations, which in their extreme result in composition anomalies characteristic of 3 He-rich, heavy-ion rich and carbon-poor SEP events, along with direct measurements of the ionization states of SEPs provide essential information on the physical characteristics of, and conditions in the source regions, as well as important constraints to possible models for SEP production. (orig./HM)

  9. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Anid, Hani Khaled

    In 1990, the International Commission on Radiological Protection recognized the occupational exposure of aircrew to cosmic radiation. In Canada, a Commercial and Business Aviation Advisory Circular was issued by Transport Canada suggesting that action should be taken to manage such exposure. In anticipation of possible regulations on exposure of Canadian-based aircrew in the near future, an extensive study was carried out at the Royal Military College of Canada to measure the radiation exposure during commercial flights. The radiation exposure to aircrew is a result of a complex mixed-radiation field resulting from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs). Supernova explosions and active galactic nuclei are responsible for GCRs which consist of 90% protons, 9% alpha particles, and 1% heavy nuclei. While they have a fairly constant fluence rate, their interaction with the magnetic field of the Earth varies throughout the solar cycles, which has a period of approximately 11 years. SEPs are highly sporadic events that are associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections. This type of exposure may be of concern to certain aircrew members, such as pregnant flight crew, for which the annual effective dose is limited to 1 mSv over the remainder of the pregnancy. The composition of SEPs is very similar to GCRs, in that they consist of mostly protons, some alpha particles and a few heavy nuclei, but with a softer energy spectrum. An additional factor when analysing SEPs is the effect of flare anisotropy. This refers to the way charged particles are transported through the Earth's magnetosphere in an anisotropic fashion. Solar flares that are fairly isotropic produce a uniform radiation exposure for areas that have similar geomagnetic shielding, while highly anisotropic events produce variable exposures at different locations on the Earth. Studies of neutron monitor count rates from detectors sharing similar geomagnetic shielding properties

  10. Geomagnetic storm related to intense solar radio burst type II and III ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The strong energetic particles ejected during sun's activity will propagate towards earth and contribute to solar radio bursts. These solar radio bursts can be detected using CALLISTO system. The open website of the NASA provides us the data including CALLISTO, TESIS, solar monitor, SOHO and space weather. The type ...

  11. The effects of solar particle events on the middle atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackman, C.H.; Douglass, A.R.; Meade, P.E.

    1989-01-01

    Solar particle events (SPEs) have been investigated since the late 1960's for possible effects on the middle atmosphere. Solar protons from SPEs produce ionizations, dissociations, dissociative ionizations, and excitations in the middle atmosphere. The production of HO(x) and NO(x) and their subsequent effects on ozone can also be computed using energy deposition and photochemical models. The effects of SPE-produced HO(x) species on the odd nitrogen abundance of the middle atmosphere as well as the SPE-produced long term effects on ozone. Model computations indicate fairly good agreement with ozone data for the SPE-induced ozone depletion caused by NO(y) species connected with the August 1972 SPE. The model computations indicate that NO(y) will not be substantially changed over a solar cycle by SPEs. The changes are mainly at high latitudes and are on time scales of several months, after which the NO(y) drifts back to its ambient levels

  12. Solar wind heavy ions from energetic coronal events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bame, S.J.

    1978-01-01

    Ions heavier than those of He can be resolved in the solar wind with electrostatic E/q analyzers when the local thermal temperatures are low. Ordinarily this condition prevails in the low speed solar wind found between high speed streams, i.e. the interstream, IS, solar wind. Various ions of O, Si and Fe are resolved in IS heavy ion spectra. Relative ion peak intensities indicate that the O ionization state is established in the IS coronal source regions at approx. 2.1 x 10 6 K while the state of Fe is frozen in at approx. 1.5 x 10 6 K farther out. Occasionally, anomalous spectra are observed in which the usually third most prominent ion peak, O 8+ , is depressed as are the Fe peaks ranging from Fe 12+ to Fe 7+ . A prominent peak in the usual Si 8+ position of IS spectra is self-consistently shown to be Fe 16+ . These features demonstrate that the ionization states were frozen in at higher than usual coronal temperatures. The source regions of these hot heavy ion spectra are identified as energetic coronal events including flares and nonflare coronal mass ejections. 24 references

  13. Geometric effects of ICMEs on geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, KyungSuk; Lee, Jae-Ok

    2017-04-01

    It has been known that the geomagnetic storm is occurred by the interaction between the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) and the Earth's magnetosphere; especially, the southward Bz component of ICME is thought as the main trigger. In this study, we investigate the relationship between Dst index and solar wind conditions; which are the southward Bz, electric field (VBz), and time integral of electric field as well as ICME parameters derived from toroidal fitting model in order to find what is main factor to the geomagnetic storm. We also inspect locations of Earth in ICMEs to understand the geometric effects of the Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) on the geomagnetic storms. Among 59 CDAW ICME lists, we select 30 IFR events that are available by the toroidal fitting model and classify them into two sub-groups: geomagnetic storms associated with the Magnetic Clouds (MCs) and the compression regions ahead of the MCs (sheath). The main results are as follows: (1) The time integral of electric field has a higher correlation coefficient (cc) with Dst index than the other parameters: cc=0.85 for 25 MC events and cc=0.99 for 5 sheath events. (2) The sheath associated intense storms (Dst ≤-100nT) having usually occur at flank regions of ICMEs while the MC associated intense storms occur regardless of the locations of the Earth in ICMEs. The strength of a geomagnetic storm strongly depends on electric field of IFR and durations of the IFR passages through the Earth.

  14. Dynamics of dissolved organic matter during four storm events in two forest streams: source, export, and implications for harmful disinfection byproduct formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Liyang; Hur, Jin; Lee, Sonmin; Chang, Soon-Woong; Shin, Hyun-Sang

    2015-06-01

    Dynamics of river dissolved organic matter (DOM) during storm events have profound influences on the downstream aquatic ecosystem and drinking water safety. This study investigated temporal variations in DOM during four storm events in two forest headwater streams (the EH and JH brooks, South Korea) and the impacts on the disinfection byproducts (DBPs) formation potential. The within-event variations of most DOM quantity parameters were similar to the flow rate in the EH but not in the larger JH brook. The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) showed clockwise and counterclockwise hysteresis with the flow rate in the EH and JH brooks, respectively, indicating the importance of both flow path and DOM source pool size in determining the effects of storm events. The stream DOM became less aromatic/humified from the first to the last event in both brooks, probably due to the increasing fresh plant pool and the decreasing leaf litter pool during the course of rainy season. The DOC export during each event increased 1.3-2.7- and 1.1-7.0-fold by stormflows in the EH and JH brooks, respectively. The leaf litter and soil together was the major DOM source, particularly during early events. The enhanced DOM export probably increases the risks of DBPs formation in disinfection, as indicated by a strong correlation observed between DOC and trihalomethanes formation potential (THMFP). High correlations between two humic-like fluorescent components and THMFP further suggested the potential of assessing THMFP with in situ fluorescence sensors during storms.

  15. Solar events and their influence on the interplanetary medium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joselyn, Jo Ann

    The Workshop on Solar Events and Their Influence on the Interplanetary Medium very successfully met its goal “to foster interactions among colleagues, leading to an improved understanding of the unified relationship between solar events and interplanetary disturbances.” Organized by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Environment Laboratory and funded by the national Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Solar Maximum Mission Principal Investigators and the Space Environment Laboratory, this meeting was held held September 8—11, 1986, in Estes Park, Colo. A total of 94 scientists, including representatives from Argentina, Germany, Japan, France, Scotland, England, Australia, Poland, Israel, Greece, China and the United States attended. A novel meeting schedule was adopted, with no formal presentations other than a keynote address by Rainer Schwenn of the Max Planck Institut fur Aeronomie (Federal republic of Germany), entitled “Transients on the Sun and Their Effects on the Interplanetary Medium: An Interdisciplinary Challenge” a Gordon A. Newkirk Memorial talk on “Early History of the Coronagraph” by John Eddy of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Office of Interdisciplinary Earth Studies (Boulder, Colo.); and introductory and summary statements by working group leaders. Instead, there were three working groups, which met either independently or with one of the other groups according to a prearranged plan. Suggested roundtable discussion topics were distributed in advance to the members of each group, but primarily, each group was expected to think of questions for the other groups and respond to requests for information from them. As may be expected, for some topics there was group consensus. Other topics were contentious.

  16. Impact of the Icme-Earth Geometry on the Strength of the Associated Geomagnetic Storm: The September 2014 and March 2015 Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, K.-S.; Marubashi, K.; Kim, R.-S.; Park, S.-H.; Lim, E.-K.; Kim, S.-J.; Kumar, P.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Moon, Y.-J.; Lee, J.-O.

    2017-04-01

    We investigate two abnormal CME-Storm pairs that occurred on 2014 September 10 - 12 and 2015 March 15 - 17, respectively. The first one was a moderate geomagnetic storm (Dst_{min} ˜ -75 nT) driven by the X1.6 high speed flare-associated CME (1267 km s^{-1}) in AR 12158 (N14E02) near solar disk center. The other was a very intense geomagnetic storm (Dst_{min} ˜ -223 nT) caused by a CME with moderate speed (719 km s^{-1}) and associated with a filament eruption accompanied by a weak flare (C9.1) in AR 12297 (S17W38). Both CMEs have large direction parameters facing the Earth and southward magnetic field orientation in their solar source region. In this study, we inspect the structure of Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) at the Earth estimated by using the torus fitting technique assuming self-similar expansion. As results, we find that the moderate storm on 2014 September 12 was caused by small-scale southward magnetic fields in the sheath region ahead of the IFR. The Earth traversed the portion of the IFR where only the northward fields are observed. Meanwhile, in case of the 2015 March 17 storm, our IFR analysis revealed that the Earth passed the very portion where only the southward magnetic fields are observed throughout the passage. The resultant southward magnetic field with long-duration is the main cause of the intense storm. We suggest that 3D magnetic field geometry of an IFR at the IFR-Earth encounter is important and the strength of a geomagnetic storm is strongly affected by the relative location of the Earth with respect to the IFR structure.

  17. Electron Microscopy Characterization of Aerosols Collected at Mauna Loa Observatory During Asian Dust Storm Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atmospheric aerosol particles have a significant influence on global climate due to their ability to absorb and scatter incoming solar radiation. Size, composition, and morphology affect a particle’s radiative properties and these can be characterized by electron microscopy. Lo...

  18. Modeling the dynamics of a storm-time acceleration event: combining MHD effects with wave-particle interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkington, S. R.; Alam, S. S.; Chan, A. A.; Albert, J.; Jaynes, A. N.; Baker, D. N.; Wiltberger, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Global simulations of radiation belt dynamics are often undertaken using either a transport formalism (e.g. Fokker-Plank), or via test particle simulations in model electric and magnetic fields. While transport formalisms offer computational efficiency and the ability to deal with a wide range of wave-particle interactions, they typically rely on simplified background fields, and often are limited to empirically-specified stochastic (diffusive) wave-particle interactions. On the other hand, test particle simulations may be carried out in global MHD simulations that include realistic physical effects such as magnetopause shadowing, convection, and substorm injections, but lack the ability to handle physics outside the MHD approximation in the realm of higher frequency (kHz) wave populations.In this work we introduce a comprehensive simulation framework combining global MHD/test particle techniques to provide realistic background fields and radial transport processes, with a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) method for addressing high frequency wave-particle interactions. We examine the March 17, 2013 storm-time acceleration period, an NSF-GEM focus challenge event, and use the framework to examine the relative importance of physical effects such as magnetopause shadowing, diffusive and advective transport processes, and wave-particle interactions through the various phases of the storm.

  19. Multi-spacecraft observations and transport simulations of solar energetic particles for the May 17th 2012 event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battarbee, M.; Guo, J.; Dalla, S.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R.; Swalwell, B.; Lawrence, D. J.

    2018-05-01

    Context. The injection, propagation and arrival of solar energetic particles (SEPs) during eruptive solar events is an important and current research topic of heliospheric physics. During the largest solar events, particles may have energies up to a few GeVs and sometimes even trigger ground-level enhancements (GLEs) at Earth. These large SEP events are best investigated through multi-spacecraft observations. Aims: We aim to study the first GLE-event of solar cycle 24, from 17th May 2012, using data from multiple spacecraft (SOHO, GOES, MSL, STEREO-A, STEREO-B and MESSENGER). These spacecraft are located throughout the inner heliosphere, at heliocentric distances between 0.34 and 1.5 astronomical units (au), covering nearly the whole range of heliospheric longitudes. Methods: We present and investigate sub-GeV proton time profiles for the event at several energy channels, obtained via different instruments aboard the above spacecraft. We investigated issues caused by magnetic connectivity, and present results of three-dimensional SEP propagation simulations. We gathered virtual time profiles and perform qualitative and quantitative comparisons with observations, assessed longitudinal injection and transport effects as well as peak intensities. Results: We distinguish different time profile shapes for well-connected and weakly connected observers, and find our onset time analysis to agree with this distinction. At select observers, we identify an additional low-energy component of Energetic Storm Particles (ESPs). Using well-connected observers for normalisation, our simulations are able to accurately recreate both time profile shapes and peak intensities at multiple observer locations. Conclusions: This synergetic approach combining numerical modelling with multi-spacecraft observations is crucial for understanding the propagation of SEPs within the interplanetary magnetic field. Our novel analysis provides valuable proof of the ability to simulate SEP propagation

  20. Community And Stakeholder Engagement With A University-Based Storm Research Team And Program During Events: Progressive Awareness, Cooperation And Mutual Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayes, P. T.; Bao, S.; Yan, T.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Hallstrom, J.; Stirling, D.; Mullikin, T.; McClam, M.; Byrd, M.; Aucoin, K.; Marosites, B.

    2017-12-01

    HUGO: The HUrricane Genesis and Outlook program is a research initiative spanning new approaches to Atlantic tropical season outlooking to a storm event-related interactively coupled model system. In addition to supporting faculty and student academic research it has progressively been engaged by diverse regional interests in the public and private sector. The seasonal outlook incorporates 22 regional-to-global climate drivers developed from the historical storm database and has shown good skill related to historical storm seasons within the development of the model as well as the last several years in an outlook capacity. The event scale model is a based upon a fully interactively coupled model system incorporating ocean, atmosphere, wave and surge/flood models. The recent cluster of storms impacting the Southeast US provided an opportunity to test the model system and helped develop strong collaborative interests across diverse groups seeking to facilitate local capacity and access to additional storm-related information, observations and expertise. The SC State Guard has actively engaged the HUGO team in carrying out their charge in emergency responders planning and activities during several recent storms and flooding events. They were instrumental in developing support to expand observational systems aiding model validation and development as well as develop access pathways for deployment of new observational technology developed through NSF sponsored projects (Intelligent River and Hurricane-RAPID) with ISENSE at Florida Atlantic University to advance observational capability and density especially during or immediately following events. At the same time an increasing number of county-level emergency and environmental managers and private sector interests have similarly been working collaborately towards expanding observational systems contributing to the goals of the growing storm-oriented cooperative and as well as broader national MesoUS goals. Collectively

  1. Magnetic storm injection of 0.9- to 16-keV/e solar and terrestrial ions into the high-altitude magnetosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balsiger, H.; Eberhardt, P.; Geiss, J.; Young, D.T.

    1980-01-01

    The Geos 1 ion composition experiments has surveyed the plasma composition in the energy per charge range below 16 keV/e at all local times and at L=3--8. During quiet and moderately disturbed times, H + is the dominant species with a few percent of heavy (M/Q>1) ions. Substorms and storms increase the relative amount of heavy ions, and occasionally, they can become the dominant species in the outer magnetosphere. Two sources, the solar wind (characterized by 4 He ++ ) and the ionosphere (characterized by O + ), give on the average comparable contributions to storm time plasma, although in individual storms one or the other may dominate. Data presented here suggest that high-altitude thermal plasma or the plasmasphere (characterized by He + and O ++ ) must be considered as a third source. Under storm conditions with Geos in the dawn-noon local time sector we have observed a mixed composition region just inside the magnetopause where high fluxes of H + , He ++ , O + , and occasionally He + ions are present. During several storms a composition profile could be measured down to Lapprox.3. Both O + and He + increase toward low altitudes, and O + (within our energy range) can become dominant at the inner edge of the ring current. On April 30, 1978, during a storm, O + contributed > or approx. =8% to the total local energy density of the ring current particles at L=4.1. In no storm has He + been observed to be the main constituent during the recovery phase. During storm recovery, H + and O + are the dominant ions, the H + /O + ratio remaining constant or even increasing during the days following the main phase of the storms. This suggests that charge exchange is not the only loss mechanism for the storm time ring current and/or that H + is replenished during the recovery phase

  2. STATISTICAL STUDY ON THE DECAY PHASE OF SOLAR NEAR-RELATIVISTIC ELECTRON EVENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lario, D.

    2010-01-01

    We study the decay phase of solar near-relativistic (53-315 keV) electron events as observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and the Ulysses spacecraft during solar cycle 23. By fitting an exponential function (exp - t/τ) to the time-intensity profile in the late phase of selected solar near-relativistic electron events, we examine the dependence of τ on electron energy, electron intensity spectra, event peak intensity, event fluence, and solar wind velocity, as well as heliocentric radial distance, heliolatitude, and heliolongitude of the spacecraft with respect to the parent solar event. The decay rates are found to be either independent or slightly decrease with the electron energy. No clear dependence is found between τ and the heliolongitude of the parent solar event, with the exception of well-connected events for which low values of τ are more commonly observed than for poorly-connected events. For those events concurrently observed by ACE and Ulysses, decay rates increase at distances >3 AU. Events with similar decay rates at ACE and Ulysses were observed mainly when Ulysses was at high heliographic latitudes. We discuss the basic physical mechanisms that control the decay phase of the electron events and conclude that both solar wind convection and adiabatic deceleration effects influence the final shape of the decay phase of solar energetic particle events, but not as expressed by the models based on diffusive transport acting on an isotropic particle population.

  3. Impact of solar proton events on noctilucent clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahpoe, Nabiz; Savigny, Christian von; Robert, Charles E.; Burrows, John P. [IEP, University of Bremen (Germany); DeLand, M. [Science Systems and Applications, Inc. (SSAI), Maryland (United States)

    2010-07-01

    The impact of SPEs (solar proton events) on NLCs (noctilucent clouds) is studied using the 23-year NLC data set based on measurements with SBUV instruments on NIMBUS 7 and the NOAA 9-17 satellites. We analyzed the GOES proton flux and NLC time series in order to find significant anti-correlations between proton fluxes and NLC occurrence rates and albedo. We focused on the analysis of the years when SPEs occurred during the core NLC season. For several cases anti-correlations of NLC and proton fluxes were found. For an increase of the proton flux of several orders of magnitude (with proton energies E>5 MeV) during the NLC season we find a NLC reduction in NLC occurence rate or albedo of up to 50 % (relative to maximum).

  4. Modeling the entry and trapping of solar energetic particles in the magnetosphere during the November 24-25, 2001 storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, R. L.; El-Alaoui, M.; Ashour-Abdalla, M.; Walker, R. J.

    2009-04-01

    We have modeled the entry of solar energetic particles (SEPs) into the magnetosphere during the November 24-25, 2001 magnetic storm and the trapping of particles in the inner magnetosphere. The study used the technique of following many test particles, protons with energies greater than about 100 keV, in the electric and magnetic fields from a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the magnetosphere during this storm. SEP protons formed a quasi-trapped and trapped population near and within geosynchronous orbit. Preliminary data comparisons show that the simulation does a reasonably good job of predicting the differential flux measured by geosynchronous spacecraft. Particle trapping took place mainly as a result of particles becoming non-adiabatic and crossing onto closed field lines. Particle flux in the inner magnetosphere increased dramatically as an interplanetary shock impacted and compressed the magnetosphere near 0600 UT, but long term trapping (hours) did not become widespread until about an hour later, during a further compression of the magnetosphere. Trapped and quasi-trapped particles were lost during the simulation by motion through the magnetopause and by precipitation, primarily the former. This caused the particle population near and within geosynchronous orbit to gradually decrease later on during the latter part of the interval.

  5. The magnitude and effects of extreme solar particle events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiggens Piers

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The solar energetic particle (SEP radiation environment is an important consideration for spacecraft design, spacecraft mission planning and human spaceflight. Herein is presented an investigation into the likely severity of effects of a very large Solar Particle Event (SPE on technology and humans in space. Fluences for SPEs derived using statistical models are compared to historical SPEs to verify their appropriateness for use in the analysis which follows. By combining environment tools with tools to model effects behind varying layers of spacecraft shielding it is possible to predict what impact a large SPE would be likely to have on a spacecraft in Near-Earth interplanetary space or geostationary Earth orbit. Also presented is a comparison of results generated using the traditional method of inputting the environment spectra, determined using a statistical model, into effects tools and a new method developed as part of the ESA SEPEM Project allowing for the creation of an effect time series on which statistics, previously applied to the flux data, can be run directly. The SPE environment spectra is determined and presented as energy integrated proton fluence (cm−2 as a function of particle energy (in MeV. This is input into the SHIELDOSE-2, MULASSIS, NIEL, GRAS and SEU effects tools to provide the output results. In the case of the new method for analysis, the flux time series is fed directly into the MULASSIS and GEMAT tools integrated into the SEPEM system. The output effect quantities include total ionising dose (in rads, non-ionising energy loss (MeV g−1, single event upsets (upsets/bit and the dose in humans compared to established limits for stochastic (or cancer-causing effects and tissue reactions (such as acute radiation sickness in humans given in grey-equivalent and sieverts respectively.

  6. Geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNamara, A.G.

    1980-01-01

    Disturbances due to geomagnetic storms can affect the functioning of communications satellites and of power lines and other long conductors. Two general classes of geomagnetic activity can be distinguished: ionospheric current flow (the auroral electrojet), and magnetospheric compression. Super magnetic storms, such as the one of August 1972, can occur at any time and average about 17 occurrences per century. Electrical transmission systems can be made more tolerant of such events at a price, but the most effective way to minimize damage is by better operator training coupled with effective early warning systems. (LL)

  7. The influence of solar active region evolution on solar wind streams, coronal hole boundaries and geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gold, R. E.; Dodson-Prince, H. W.; Hedeman, E. R.; Roelof, E. C.

    1982-01-01

    Solar and interplanetary data are examined, taking into account the identification of the heliographic longitudes of the coronal source regions of high speed solar wind (SW) streams by Nolte and Roelof (1973). Nolte and Roelof have 'mapped' the velocities measured near earth back to the sun using the approximation of constant radial velocity. The 'Carrington carpet' for rotations 1597-1616 is shown in a graph. Coronal sources of high speed streams appear in the form of solid black areas. The contours of the stream sources are laid on 'evolutionary charts' of solar active region histories for the Southern and Northern Hemispheres. Questions regarding the interplay of active regions and solar wind are investigated, giving attention to developments during the years 1973, 1974, and 1975.

  8. The impact of storm events on a riverbed system and its hydraulic conductivity at a site of induced infiltration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Jonathan; Birck, Matthew D; Mutiti, Samuel; Kilroy, Kathryn C; Windeler, Britton; Idris, Ominigho; Allen, Lauren N

    2011-08-01

    The spatial and temporal variability of riverbed vertical hydraulic conductivity (K(v)) was investigated at a site of induced infiltration, associated with a municipal well field, to assess the impact of high-stage events on scour and subsequently the riverbed K(v). Such impacts are important when considering the potential loss of riverbank filtration capacity due to storm events. The study site, in and along the Great Miami River in southwest Ohio, overlaid a highly productive glacial-outwash aquifer. A three-layer model for this system was conceptualized: a top layer of transient sediment, a second layer comprising large sediment resistant to scour, but clogged with finer sediment (the armor/colmation layer), and a third layer that was transitional to the underlying higher-K(v) aquifer. One location was studied in detail to confirm and quantify the conceptual model. Methods included seepage meters, heat-flow modeling, grain-size analyses, laboratory permeameter tests, slug tests and the use of scour chains and pressure-load cells to directly measure the amount of sediment scour and re-deposition. Seepage meter measured riverbed K(v) ranged from 0.017 to 1.7 m/d with a geometric mean of 0.19 m/d. Heat-transport model-calibrated estimates were even lower, ranging from 0.0061 to 0.046 m/d with a mean of 0.017 m/d. The relatively low K(v) was indicative of the clogged armor layer. In contrast, slug tests in the underlying riverbed sediment yielded K(v) values an order of magnitude greater. There was a linear relationship between scour chain measured scour and event intensity with a maximum scour of only 0.098 m. Load-cell pressure sensor data over a 7-month period indicated a total sediment-height fluctuation of 0.42 m and a maximum storm-event scour of 0.28 m. Scour data indicated that the assumed armor/colmation layer almost always remained intact. Based on measured layer conductivities and thicknesses, the overall K(v) of this conceptualized system was 1.6 m

  9. A Novel Forecasting System for Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papaioannou, A; Anastasiadis, A; Sandberg, I; Tsiropoula, G; Tziotziou, K; Georgoulis, M K; Jiggens, P; Hilgers, A

    2015-01-01

    Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) result from intense solar eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and pose a significant threat for both personnel and infrastructure in space conditions. In this work, we present FORSPEF (Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares), a novel dual system, designed to perform forecasting of SEPs based on forecasting of solar flares, as well as independent SEP nowcasting. An overview of flare and SEP forecasting methods of choice is presented. Concerning SEP events, we make use for the first time of the newly re-calibrated GOES proton data within the energy range 6.0-243 MeV and we build our statistics on an extensive time interval that includes roughly 3 solar cycles (1984-2013). A new comprehensive catalogue of SEP events based on these data has been compiled including solar associations in terms of flare (magnitude, location) and CME (width, velocity) characteristics. (paper)

  10. Impact of storm events on the structure of a stream microbiome

    Science.gov (United States)

    The microbial structural and/or functional state in a stream community is assumed to be in relative stasis until a perturbation (e.g., runoff event with entrained pollutants) affects the community structure and its functional state. Quantifying these changes and resolving the spe...

  11. Epinephrine syringe exchange events in a paediatric cardiovascular ICU: analysing the storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achuff, Barbara-Jo; Achuff, Jameson C; Park, Hwan H; Moffett, Brady; Acosta, Sebastian; Rusin, Craig G; Checchia, Paul A

    2018-03-01

    Introduction Haemodynamically unstable patients can experience potentially hazardous changes in vital signs related to the exchange of depleted syringes of epinephrine to full syringes. The purpose was to determine the measured effects of epinephrine syringe exchanges on the magnitude, duration, and frequency of haemodynamic disturbances in the hour after an exchange event (study) relative to the hours before (control). Materials and methods Beat-to-beat vital signs recorded every 2 seconds from bedside monitors for patients admitted to the paediatric cardiovascular ICU of Texas Children's Hospital were collected between 1 January, 2013 and 30 June, 2015. Epinephrine syringe exchanges without dose/flow change were obtained from electronic records. Time, magnitude, and duration of changes in systolic blood pressure and heart rate were characterised using Matlab. Significant haemodynamic events were identified and compared with control data. In all, 1042 syringe exchange events were found and 850 (81.6%) had uncorrupted data for analysis. A total of 744 (87.5%) exchanges had at least 1 associated haemodynamic perturbation including 2958 systolic blood pressure and 1747 heart-rate changes. Heart-rate perturbations occurred 37% before exchange and 63% after exchange, and 37% of systolic blood pressure perturbations happened before syringe exchange, whereas 63% occurred after syringe exchange with significant differences found in systolic blood pressure frequency (pexchange events.

  12. Magnetic susceptibility as a simple tracer for fluvial sediment source ascription during storm events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowntree, Kate M; van der Waal, Bennie W; Pulley, Simon

    2017-06-01

    Sediment tracing using a single tracer, low frequency magnetic susceptibility (X lf ), was used to apportion suspended sediment to geologically defined source areas and to interpret sediment source changes during flood events in the degraded catchment of the Vuvu River, a headwater tributary of the Mzimbubu River, South Africa. The method was tested as a simple tool for use by catchment managers concerned with controlling erosion. The geology of the 58 km 2 catchment comprises two distinct formations: basalt in the upper catchment with a characteristically high magnetic susceptibility and shales with a low magnetic susceptibility in the lower catchment. Application of an unmixing model incorporating a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis showed that X lf provided a means to assign the proportion of each geological province contributing to the river's sediment load. Grab water samples were collected at ten-minute intervals during flood events for subsequent analysis of suspended sediment concentration and the magnetic susceptibility of the filtered sediment. Two floods are presented in detail, the first represents a significant event at the start of the wet season (max. discharge 32 m 3  s -1 ); the second was a smaller flood (max discharge 14 m 3  s -1 ) that occurred a month later. Suspended sediment concentrations during the twelve monitored events showed a characteristic decline over the wet season. The main source of suspended sediment was shown to be from the mudstones in the lower catchment, which contributed 86% of the total measured load. The sediment dynamics during the two floods monitored in detail were quite different from each other. In the first the sediment concentration was high (11 g L -1 ), peaking after the flood peak. The X lf value increased during the event, indicating that contribution to the sediment load from basalt in the upper catchment increased during the recession limb. In the second, smaller flood the sediment peak (6 g L -1

  13. Coronal mass ejections and large geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gosling, J.T.; Bame, S.J.; McComas, D.J.; Phillips, J.L.

    1990-01-01

    Previous work indicates that coronal mass ejection (CME) events in the solar wind at 1 AU can be identified by the presence of a flux of counterstreaming solar wind halo electrons (above about 80 eV). Using this technique to identify CMEs in 1 AU plasma data, the authors find that most large geomagnetic storms during the interval surrounding the last solar maximum (Aug. 1978-Oct. 1982) were associated with Earth-passage of interplanetary disturbances in which the Earth encountered both a shock and the CME driving the shock. However, only about one CME in six encountered by Earth was effective in causing a large geomagnetic storm. Slow CMEs which did not interact strongly with the ambient solar wind ahead were particularly ineffective in a geomagnetic sense

  14. Pond Hockey on Whitmore Lacus: the Formation of Ponds and Ethane Ice Deposits Following Storm Events on Titan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steckloff, Jordan; Soderblom, Jason M.

    2017-10-01

    Cassini ISS observations reveled regions, later identified as topographic low spots (Soderblom et al. 2014, DPS) on Saturn’s moon Titan become significantly darker (lower albedo) following storm events (Turtle et al. 2009, GRL; 2011, Science), suggesting pools of liquid hydrocarbon mixtures (predominantly methane-ethane-nitrogen). However, these dark ponds then significantly brighten (higher albedo relative to pre-storm albedo), before fading to their pre-storm albedos (Barnes et al. 2013 Planet. Sci; Soderblom et al. 2014, DPS). We interpret these data to be the result of ethane ice formation, which cools from evaporation of methane. The formation of ethane ices results from a unique sequence of thermophysical processes. Initially, the methane in the ternary mixture evaporates, cooling the pond. Nitrogen, dissolved primarily in the methane, exsolves, further cooling the liquid. However, because nitrogen is significantly more soluble in cooler methane-hydrocarbon mixtures, the relative concentration of nitrogen in the solution increases as it cools. This increased nitrogen fraction increases the density of the pond, as nitrogen is significantly more dense thane methane or ethane (pure ethane’s density is intermediate to that of methane and nitrogen). At around ~85 K the mixture is as dense as pure liquid ethane. Thus, further evaporative methane loss and cooling at the pond’s surface leads to a chemical stratification, with an increasingly ethane rich epilimnion (surface layer) overlying a methane rich hypolimnion (subsurface layer). Further evaporation of methane from the ethane-rich epilimnion drives its temperature and composition toward the methane-ethane-nitrogen liquidus curve, causing pure ethane ice to precipitate out of solution and settle to the bottom of the pool. This settling would obscure the ethane ice from Cassini VIMS and ISS, which would instead continue to appear as a dark pond on the surface. As the ethane precipitates out completely, a

  15. Reconstruction of solar wind features that caused a super geomagnetic storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, A. T. Y.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    2013-06-01

    A superstorm with Dst < -300 nT can cause major space disturbances. We examine one on March 31, 2001 that has the minimum Dst of -387 nT and obtain two-dimensional maps in pressure and magnetic field of the sheath region and a magnetic cloud behind it. Both the sheath and the magnetic cloud play a role in building the storm strength. Several properties of the magnetic cloud are inferred, including an estimated total magnetic flux of ~6.5×1012 Wb.

  16. Sediment transport and deposition during extreme sea storm events at the Salerno Bay (Tyrrhenian Sea: comparison of field data with numerical model results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Budillon

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Seismic stratigraphy and core litho-stratigraphy in the Salerno Bay inner shelf (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea reveal significant storm deposition episodes over the last 1 ky. Three major events are preserved as decimetre thick silt/sand layers bounded at their base by erosional surfaces and sealed in the muddy marine sequences between 25 and 60 m of depth. Geochronology and chrono-stratigraphy on core sediment point towards a recurrence of major sea storms between 0.1 and 0.3 ky and put the last significant event in the 19th century, when no local meteorological time series is available. A modelling of extreme sea-storms with a return period of about 0.1 ky is here proposed based on historical hindcast and aims at explaining the occurrence of such unusual deep and thick sand deposits in the northern sector of the bay. Results highlight the vulnerability of the northern coast of the Salerno Bay to the south western sea storms which can drive waves up to about 8 m high and wave period of about 13 s. With these conditions an intense combined flow current is formed and might account for winnowing fine sand down to the depth of 40 m at least. The numerical model thus confirms a possible sand transport in the bottom boundary layer due to wave-current interaction and could corroborate the interpretation of the most recent sand layers, included in the cores, as being generated under extreme sea storm conditions.

  17. Storm impacts on a high energy sandy beach system, northwest Ireland: short (event) to long term (decadal) behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew; O'Connor, Marianne

    2017-04-01

    Long-term monitoring of beach dynamics is an important element in risk prevention and management of both natural and human resources at the coast. The predicted intensification in storminess (frequency, duration and magnitude), partly associated with climate change, represents a pressing concern for coastal communities globally and has undoubtedly led to an improvement in available techniques and technologies for observation and analysis. Here we examine a high energy Atlantic beach system at Five Fingers strand (NW Ireland) to help understand hydrodynamic forcing on beach response under various wave energy scenarios. The system, which has been modally attuned to a large swell wave environment, periodically undergoes significant morphological changes over various spatial and temporal scales manifest in the development and movements of dynamic nearshore bars and a nearshore ebb-tide delta. A combination of field and laboratory techniques (GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) Instrumentation, Drone surveys) implemented from the shoreface to the beach, captures the response and evolution of the system over the short (event), medium (weeks to months) and long-term (multiyear) timescale. Numerical modelling of nearshore wave hydrodynamics (using SWAN wave simulation model) helps understanding wave forcing across shoreface area and is ran under a number of iterative time intervals. Here, we investigate the role of infrequent and sometimes extreme events in the system to understand the importance of clustering of storminess and the occurrence of single high-magnitude storm events that perturb the inlet-beach system and thus induce key morphodynamic changes. Preliminary results show that ultimately the configuration of the ebb-tide channel influences the geomorphic response of the system. In the short term, a storm induced erosion of the shoreface is observed, which also appears to lead to changes in the ebb-tide channel, and ultimately the welding of a nearshore bar

  18. Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    KAUST Repository

    Deng, Liping

    2015-05-01

    The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite, in situ, and reanalysis data. Here, we focus on characterizing the initial synoptic features and examining the impact of model parameterization and resolution on the reproduction of a number of flood-producing rainfall events that occurred over the western Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah. Analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data suggests that mesoscale convective systems associated with strong moisture convergence ahead of a trough were the major initial features for the occurrence of these intense rain events. The WRF Model was able to simulate the heavy rainfall, with driving convective processes well characterized by a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. The use of higher (1 km vs 5 km) resolution along the Jeddah coastline favors the simulation of local convective systems and adds value to the simulation of heavy rainfall, especially for deep-convection-related extreme values. At the 5-km resolution, corresponding to an intermediate study domain, simulation without a cumulus scheme led to the formation of deeper convective systems and enhanced rainfall around Jeddah, illustrating the need for careful model scheme selection in this transition resolution. In analysis of multiple nested WRF simulations (25, 5, and 1 km), localized volume and intensity of heavy rainfall together with the duration of rainstorms within the Jeddah catchment area were captured reasonably well, although there was evidence of some displacements of rainstorm events.

  19. Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike E. L.; van der Wiel, Karin; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah F.; Uhe, Peter; Cullen, Heidi

    2018-02-01

    On 4-6 December 2015, storm Desmond caused very heavy rainfall in Northern England and Southern Scotland which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing Northern England and Southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred. The analysis was based on three independent methods of extreme event attribution: historical observed trends, coupled climate model simulations and a large ensemble of regional model simulations. All three methods agreed that the effect of climate change was positive, making precipitation events like this about 40% more likely, with a provisional 2.5%-97.5% confidence interval of 5%-80%. Here we revisit the assessment using more station data, an additional monthly event definition, a second global climate model and regional model simulations of winter 2015/16. The overall result of the analysis is similar to the real-time analysis with a best estimate of a 59% increase in event frequency, but a larger confidence interval that does include no change. It is important to highlight that the observational data in the additional monthly analysis does not only represent the rainfall associated with storm Desmond but also that of storms Eve and Frank occurring towards the end of the month.

  20. October 1972 solar event: The third dimension in solar particle propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domingo, V.; Page, D.E.; Wenzel, K.

    1976-01-01

    From late on October 29 until November 3, 1972, our experiment on the European Space Research Organization satellite Heos 2 recorded the arrival of an enhanced interplanetary particle intensity. A dramatic 'slot' in count rate and other sudden anisotropy and flux changes (measured in and perpendicular to the ecliptic plane) were found to coincide with changes in the theta (north-south) ecliptic direction of the interplanetary magnetic field. However, reorientation of strongly field-aligned particle distributions relative to the detectors was insufficient to explain the intensity changes recorded, and the conclusion had to be drawn that the spacecraft was repeatedly crossing a boundary between one regime and a neighboring one with a different particle population. Since the switching from one regime to the other continued for several days, it would seem reasonable to suggest that the boundary between regimes was roughly parallel to the ecliptic plane. This idea was reinforced by the discovery that each time that the particle regime changed, not only did B/sub theta/ change, but the solar wind flow direction changed, the dip angle reversing sign. It would thus appear that when the solar wind blows three-dimensional snakelike tubes in interplanetary space, MeV particles obediently follow the field line bundles within such tubes and experience considerable difficulty in crossing from one tube to a neighboring tube which encloses a different regime. Because of the absence of cross-field particle movement, measurements made at higher solar latitudes, where most solar active regions occur, could reveal a somewhat different picture of the development of solar particle events

  1. Role of the lifetime of ring current particles on the solar wind-magnetosphere power transfer during the intense geomagnetic storm of 28 August 1978

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, W.D.; Gonzalez, A.L.C.; Lee, L.C.

    1990-01-01

    For the intense magnetic storms of 28 August 1978 it is shown that the power transfer from the solar wind to the magnetosphere is well represented by the expression obtained by Vasyliunas et al. (1982, Planet. Space Sci. 30, 359) from dimensional analysis, but this representation becomes improved when such an expression is modified by a factor due to an influence of the lifetime of ring current particles as suggested by Lee and Akasofu (1984, Planet. Space Sci. 32, 1423). During a steady state regime of the ring current evolution of this storm, our study suggests that the power transfer depends on the solar wind density, the transverse component of the IMF (Interplanetary magnetic field) (with respect to the Sun-Earth line) and also, explicitly, on the time constant for ring current energy decay, but not on the solar wind speed. (author)

  2. Forecasting the Earth’s radiation belts and modelling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poedts Stefaan

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7–8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25–26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10 – a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

  3. Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008) and Xynthia (2010) storm events

    OpenAIRE

    C. André; D. Monfort; M. Bouzit; C. Vinchon

    2013-01-01

    There are a number of methodological issues involved in assessing damage caused by natural hazards. The first is the lack of data, due to the rarity of events and the widely different circumstances in which they occur. Thus, historical data, albeit scarce, should not be neglected when seeking to build ex-ante risk management models. This article analyses the input of insurance data for two recent severe coastal storm events, to examine what causal relationships may exist bet...

  4. POM Pulses: Characterizing the Physical and Chemical Properties of Particulate Organic Matter (POM) Mobilized by Large Storm Events and its Influence on Receiving Fluvial Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, E. R.; Rowland, R. D.; Protokowicz, J.; Inamdar, S. P.; Kan, J.; Vargas, R.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme storm events have tremendous erosive energy which is capable of mobilizing vast amounts of material from watershed sources into fluvial systems. This complex mixture of sediment and particulate organic matter (POM) is a nutrient source, and has the potential to impact downstream water quality. The impact of POM on receiving aquatic systems can vary not only by the total amount exported but also by the various sources involved and the particle sizes of POM. This study examines the composition of POM in potential sources and within-event POM by: (1) determining the amount and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) that can be leached from coarse, medium and fine particle classes; (2) assessing the C and N content and isotopic character of within-event POM; and (3) coupling physical and chemical properties to evaluate storm event POM influence on stream water. Storm event POM samples and source sediments were collected from a forested headwater catchment (second order stream) in the Piedmont region of Maryland. Samples were sieved into three particle classes - coarse (2mm-1mm), medium (1mm-250µm) and fine (solid state event and source material. Future work will include examination of microbial communities associated with POM particle size classes. Physical size class separation of within-event POM exhibited differences in C:N ratios, δ15N composition, and extracted DOM lability. Smaller size classes exhibited lower C:N ratios, more enriched δ15N and more recalcitrant properties in leached DOM. Source material had varying C:N ratios and contributions to leached DOM. These results indicate that both source and size class strongly influence the POM contribution to fluvial systems during large storm events.

  5. Ptaquiloside from bracken in stream water at base flow and during storm events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clauson-Kaas, Frederik; Ramwell, Carmel; Hansen, Hans Chr. Bruun

    2016-01-01

    not decrease over the course of the event. In the stream, the throughfall contribution to PTA cannot be separated from a possible below-ground input from litter, rhizomes and soil. Catchment-specific factors such as the soil pH, topography, hydrology, and bracken coverage will evidently affect the level of PTA...... rainfall and PTA concentration in the stream, with a reproducible time lag of approx. 1 h from onset of rain to elevated concentrations, and returning rather quickly (about 2 h) to base flow concentration levels. The concentration of PTA behaved similar to an inert tracer (Cl(-)) in the pulse experiment...

  6. Solar and interplanetary particles at 2 to 4 MEV during solar cycles 21, solar cycle variations of event sizes, and compositions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, T.P.; Shields, J.C.; Briggs, P.R.; Eckes, S.

    1985-01-01

    In this paper 2 to 4 MeV/nucleon protons, alpha particles, and medium (CNO) nuclei in the near-Earth interplanetary medium during the years 1974 to 1981 are studied. This period contains both the solar activity minimum in 1976 and the very active onset phase of Solar Cycle 21. Characteristic compositional differences between the solar minimum and solar maximum ion populations have been investigated. Previous studies of interplanetary composition at these energies have concentrated on well-defined samples of the heliospheric medium. During flare particle events, the ambient plasma is dominated by ions accelerated in specific regions of the solar atmosphere; observation of the proton/alpha and alpha/medium ratios for flare events shows that there is marked compositional variability both during an event and from event to event suggesting the complicated nature of flare particle production and transport

  7. Comprehensive Analysis of the Geoeffective Solar Event of 21 June 2015: Effects on the Magnetosphere, Plasmasphere, and Ionosphere Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piersanti, Mirko; Alberti, Tommaso; Bemporad, Alessandro; Berrilli, Francesco; Bruno, Roberto; Capparelli, Vincenzo; Carbone, Vincenzo; Cesaroni, Claudio; Consolini, Giuseppe; Cristaldi, Alice; Del Corpo, Alfredo; Del Moro, Dario; Di Matteo, Simone; Ermolli, Ilaria; Fineschi, Silvano; Giannattasio, Fabio; Giorgi, Fabrizio; Giovannelli, Luca; Guglielmino, Salvatore Luigi; Laurenza, Monica; Lepreti, Fabio; Marcucci, Maria Federica; Martucci, Matteo; Mergè, Matteo; Pezzopane, Michael; Pietropaolo, Ermanno; Romano, Paolo; Sparvoli, Roberta; Spogli, Luca; Stangalini, Marco; Vecchio, Antonio; Vellante, Massimo; Villante, Umberto; Zuccarello, Francesca; Heilig, Balázs; Reda, Jan; Lichtenberger, János

    2017-11-01

    A full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) left the Sun on 21 June 2015 from active region (AR) NOAA 12371. It encountered Earth on 22 June 2015 and generated a strong geomagnetic storm whose minimum Dst value was -204 nT. The CME was associated with an M2-class flare observed at 01:42 UT, located near disk center (N12 E16). Using satellite data from solar, heliospheric, and magnetospheric missions and ground-based instruments, we performed a comprehensive Sun-to-Earth analysis. In particular, we analyzed the active region evolution using ground-based and satellite instruments (Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO), Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS), Hinode, Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI), covering Hα, EUV, UV, and X-ray data); the AR magnetograms, using data from SDO/ Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI); the high-energy particle data, using the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) instrument; and the Rome neutron monitor measurements to assess the effects of the interplanetary perturbation on cosmic-ray intensity. We also evaluated the 1 - 8 Å soft X-ray data and the {˜} 1 MHz type III radio burst time-integrated intensity (or fluence) of the flare in order to predict the associated solar energetic particle (SEP) event using the model developed by Laurenza et al. ( Space Weather 7(4), 2009). In addition, using ground-based observations from lower to higher latitudes ( International Real-time Magnetic Observatory Network (INTERMAGNET) and European Quasi-Meridional Magnetometer Array (EMMA)), we reconstructed the ionospheric current system associated with the geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI). Furthermore, Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) measurements were used to image the global ionospheric polar convection during the SI and during the principal phases of the geomagnetic storm. In addition

  8. The Impacts of Episodic Storm and Flood Events on Carbon and Sediment Delivery to Gulf of Mexico Sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiner, K. M.; Carlin, J. A.; Sayers, L.; Swenson, J.

    2017-12-01

    Marine sediments are an important long-term reservoir for both recently fixed organic carbon (OC) and ancient rock derived OC, much of which is delivered by rivers. The ratio between these two sources of OC in turn regulates atmospheric levels of oxygen and carbon dioxide over geologic time, making this riverine delivery of OC, primarily carried by sediments, an important flux in the global carbon cycle. However, while the overall magnitude of these fluxes are relatively well known, it remains to be determined the importance of episodic events, like storms and floods, in the flux of OC from terrestrial to marine environments. Here, we present data from a 34 cm core collected from the Gulf of Mexico at a mid-shelf distal depocenter for the Brazos River in 2015, during a strong El Nino when that area of the country was experiencing 100-year flood events and anomalously high river flow. Based on analysis of the radioactive isotope 7Be, approximately the top 7-8 cm of the sediment in this core was deposited during this flood event. Both bulk elemental (C, N, and stable carbon isotopes) and chemical biomarker (lignin-phenol) data has been combined to provide information of the origin and chemistry of the OC in this core both before and during flooding. C:N and d13C indicate a mixture of marine-sourced and terrestrially-sourced OC throughout the length of the core with very little variation between the flood layer and deeper sediments. However, lignin-phenol concentrations are higher in flood-deposited sediment, indicating that this sediment is likely terrestrially-sourced. Lignin-phenol indicators of OC degradation state (Acid:Aldehyde ratios) indicate that flood sediment is fresher and less degraded than deeper sediments. Taken together, these results indicate that 1. Bulk analyses are not enough to determine OC source and the importance of flood events in OC cycling and 2. Episodic events like floods could have an oversized impact on OC storage in marine sediments.

  9. Evolution of Storm-time Subauroral Electric Fields: RCM Event Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sazykin, S.; Spiro, R. W.; Wolf, R. A.; Toffoletto, F.; Baker, J.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.

    2012-12-01

    Subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) are regions of strongly-enhanced westward ExB plasma drift (poleward-directed electric fields) located just equatorward of the evening auroral oval. Several recently -installed HF (coherent scatter) radars in the SuperDARN chain at mid-latitudes present a novel opportunity for obtaining two-dimensional maps of ionospheric ExB flows at F-region altitudes that span several hours of the evening and nighttime subauroral ionosphere. These new and exciting observations of SAPS provide an opportunity and a challenge to coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere models. In this paper, we use the Rice Convection Model (RCM) to simulate several events where SAPS were observed by the mid-latitude SuperDARN chain. RCM frequently predicts the occurrence of SAPS in the subauroral evening MLT sector; the mechanism is essentially current closure on the dusk side where downward Birkeland currents (associated with the ion plasma sheet inner edge) map to a region of reduced ionospheric conductance just equatorward of the diffuse auroral precipitation (associated with the electron plasma sheet inner edge). We present detailed comparisons of model-computed ionospheric convection patterns with observations, with two goals in mind: (1) to analyze to what extent the observed appearance and time evolution of SAPS structures are driven by time variations of the cross polar cap potential drop (or, equivalently, the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field), and (2) to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the spatial extent and magnitude of SAPS structures.

  10. The effect of solar-geomagnetic activity during hospital admission on coronary events within 1 year in patients with acute coronary syndromes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vencloviene, J.; Babarskiene, R.; Milvidaite, I.; Kubilius, R.; Stasionyte, J.

    2013-12-01

    Some evidence indicates the deterioration of the cardiovascular system during space storms. It is plausible that the space weather conditions during and after hospital admission may affect the risk of coronary events in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). We analyzed the data of 1400 ACS patients who were admitted to the Hospital Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, and who survived for more than 4 days. We evaluated the associations between geomagnetic storms (GS), solar proton events (SPE), and solar flares (SF) that occurred 0-3 days before and after hospital admission and the risk of cardiovascular death (CAD), non-fatal ACS, and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) during a period of 1 year; the evaluation was based on the multivariate logistic model, controlling for clinical data. After adjustment for clinical variables, GS occurring in conjunction with SF 1 day before admission increased the risk of CAD by over 2.5 times. GS 2 days after SPE occurred 1 day after admission increased the risk of CAD and CABG by over 2.8 times. The risk of CABG increased by over 2 times in patients admitted during the day of GS and 1 day after SPE. The risk of ACS was by over 1.63 times higher for patients admitted 1 day before or after solar flares.

  11. Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

  12. Solar Flare Super-Events: When they Can Occur and the Energy Limits of their Realization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishkov, Vitaly N.

    2015-03-01

    For the successful development of terrestrial civilization it is necessary to estimate the space factors, including phenomena on Sun, which can ruin it or cause such catastrophic loss, that the restoration to the initial level can take unacceptably long time. Super-powerful solar flares are the only such phenomena. Therefore an attempt is undertaken to estimate the possibility of such super-event occurrence at this stage of our star evolution. Since solar flare events are the consequence of the newly emerging magnetic fluxes interacting with the already existing magnetic fields of active regions, are investigated the observed cases which lead to the realization of such super-events. From the observations of the maximal magnetic fluxes during the period of reliable solar observations, the conclusion is made that the super- extreme solar flares cannot significantly exceed the most powerful solar flares which have already been observed. On the statistics of the reliable solar cycles the sunspot groups, in which occurred the most powerful solar super-events (August- September 1859 - solar cycle 10; June 1991 - SC 22; October-November 2003 - SC 23) appeared in the periods of the solar magnetic field reorganization between the epochs of "increased" and "lowered" solar activity.

  13. Impacts of Extreme Space Weather Events on Power Grid Infrastructure: Physics-Based Modelling of Geomagnetically-Induced Currents (GICs) During Carrington-Class Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, M. G.; Bent, R.; Chen, Y.; Delzanno, G. L.; Jeffery, C. A.; Jordanova, V. K.; Morley, S.; Rivera, M. K.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.; Woodroffe, J. R.; Engel, M.

    2017-12-01

    Large geomagnetic storms can have devastating effects on power grids. The largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded - called the Carrington Event - occurred in 1859 and produced Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) strong enough to set fires in telegraph offices. It has been estimated that if such a storm occurred today, it would have devastating, long-lasting effects on the North American power transmission infrastructure. Acutely aware of this imminent threat, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) was recently instructed to establish requirements for transmission system performance during geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) events and, although the benchmarks adopted were based on the best available data at the time, they suffer from a severely limited physical understanding of the behavior of GMDs and the resulting GICs for strong events. To rectify these deficiencies, we are developing a first-of-its-kind data-informed modelling capability that will provide transformational understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for the most harmful intense localized GMDs and their impacts on real power transmission networks. This work is being conducted in two separate modes of operation: (1) using historical, well-observed large storm intervals for which robust data-assimilation can be performed, and (2) extending the modelling into a predictive realm in order to assess impacts of poorly and/or never-before observed Carrington-class events. Results of this work are expected to include a potential replacement for the current NERC benchmarking methodology and the development of mitigation strategies in real power grid networks. We report on progress to date and show some preliminary results of modeling large (but not yet extreme) events.

  14. Lunar Rocks: Available for Year of the Solar System Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, J. S.

    2010-12-01

    sections may be use requested for college and university courses where petrographic microscopes are available for viewing. Requestors should contact Ms. Mary Luckey, Education Sample Curator. Email address: mary.k.luckey@nasa.gov NASA also loans sets of Moon rocks for use in classrooms, libraries, museums, and planetariums through the Lunar Sample Education Program. Lunar samples (three soils and three rocks) are encapsulated in a six-inch diameter clear plastic disk. A CD with PowerPoint presentations, analogue samples from Earth, a classroom activity guide, and additional printed material accompany the disks. Educators may qualify for the use of these disks by attending a content and security certification workshop sponsored by NASA's Aerospace Education Services Program (AESP). Contact Ms. Margaret Maher, AESP Director. Email address: mjm67@psu.edu NASA makes these precious samples available for the public and encourages the use of lunar rocks to highlight Year of the Solar System events. Surely these interesting specimens of another world will enhance the experience of all YSS participants so please take advantage of these lunar samples and borrow them for events and classes.

  15. Different geomagnetic indices as an indicator for geo-effective solar storms and human physiological state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitrova, Svetla

    2008-02-01

    A group of 86 healthy volunteers were examined on each working day during periods of high solar activity. Data about systolic and diastolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, heart rate and subjective psycho-physiological complaints were gathered. MANOVA was employed to check the significance of the influence of three factors on the physiological parameters. The factors were as follows: (1) geomagnetic activity estimated by daily amplitude of H-component of the local geomagnetic field, Ap- and Dst-index; (2) gender; and (3) the presence of medication. Average values of systolic, diastolic blood pressure, pulse pressure and subjective complaints of the group were found to increase significantly with geomagnetic activity increment.

  16. A comparative study of night-time enhancement of TEC at a low latitude station on storm and quiet nights including the local time, seasonal and solar activity dependence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Unnikrishnan

    Full Text Available The main characteristics of night-time enhancements in TEC during magnetic storms are compared with those during quiet nights for different seasons and solar activity conditions at Palehua, a low latitude station during the period 1980–1989. We find that the mean amplitude has both a seasonal and solar activity dependence: in winter, the values are higher for weak storms as compared to those during quiet nights and increase with an increase in solar activity. In summer, the mean amplitude values during weak storms and quiet nights are almost equal. But during equinox, the mean amplitude values for quiet nights are greater than those during weak storms. The mean half-amplitude duration is higher during weak storms as compared to that during quiet nights in summer. However, during winter and equinox, the durations are almost equal for both quiet and weak storm nights. For the mean half-amplitude duration, the quiet night values for all the seasons and equinoctial weak storm values increase with an increase in solar activity. The occurrence frequency (in percent of TEC enhancement during weak storms is greater than during quiet nights for all seasons. The mean amplitude, the mean half-amplitude duration and the occurrence frequency (in percent of TEC enhancement values are higher during major storms as compared to those during quiet nights. The above parameters have their highest values during pre-midnight hours. From the data analysed, this behaviour is true in the case of major storms also.

    Key words. Ionosphere (ionospheric disturbances; plasma convection Magnetospheric physics (storms and substorms

  17. DISSOLUÇÃO DE FRONTEIRAS E A EXPERIÊNCIA TRANSICIONAL EM SOLAR STORMS, DE LINDA HOGAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Garcia de Souza

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available O presente trabalho analisa a experiência transicional no romance Solar Storms, publicado pela escritora nativo-americana Linda Hogan (Chickasaw em 1995. A obra narra a jornada de Angela, uma mestiça indígena órfã que retorna à terra de seus antepassados na tentativa de desvendar sua história e de religar os fragmentos de um passado parcialmente obscuro. Ao longo da narrativa, percebe-se um processo de gradual desconstrução de categorias – temporais, físicas, espaciais – e de superação das relações dicotômicas que opõem, por exemplo, indivíduo e comunidade, interioridade e exterioridade, o mundo humano e o não humano. Esse movimento se dá na direção de uma dissolução das falsas fronteiras e no sentido de uma integração total.

  18. Solar Particle Induced Upsets in the TDRS-1 Attitude Control System RAM During the October 1989 Solar Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croley, D. R.; Garrett, H. B.; Murphy, G. B.; Garrard,T. L.

    1995-01-01

    The three large solar particle events, beginning on October 19, 1989 and lasting approximately six days, were characterized by high fluences of solar protons and heavy ions at 1 AU. During these events, an abnormally large number of upsets (243) were observed in the random access memory of the attitude control system (ACS) control processing electronics (CPE) on-board the geosynchronous TDRS-1 (Telemetry and Data Relay Satellite). The RAM unit affected was composed of eight Fairchild 93L422 memory chips. The Galileo spacecraft, launched on October 18, 1989 (one day prior to the solar particle events) observed the fluxes of heavy ions experienced by TDRS-1. Two solid-state detector telescopes on-board Galileo, designed to measure heavy ion species and energy, were turned on during time periods within each of the three separate events. The heavy ion data have been modeled and the time history of the events reconstructed to estimate heavy ion fluences. These fluences were converted to effective LET spectra after transport through the estimated shielding distribution around the TDRS-1 ACS system. The number of single event upsets (SEU) expected was calculated by integrating the measured cross section for the Fairchild 93L422 memory chip with average effective LET spectrum. The expected number of heavy ion induced SEU's calculated was 176. GOES-7 proton data, observed during the solar particle events, were used to estimate the number of proton-induced SEU's by integrating the proton fluence spectrum incident on the memory chips, with the two-parameter Bendel cross section for proton SEU'S. The proton fluence spectrum at the device level was gotten by transporting the protons through the estimated shielding distribution. The number of calculated proton-induced SEU's was 72, yielding a total of 248 predicted SEU'S, very dose to the 243 observed SEU'S. These calculations uniquely demonstrate the roles that solar heavy ions and protons played in the production of SEU

  19. The solar energetic particle event on 2013 April 11: an investigation of its solar origin and longitudinal spread

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lario, D.; Raouafi, N. E. [The Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Kwon, R.-Y.; Zhang, J. [School of Physics, Astronomy and Computational Sciences, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MSN 6A2, Fairfax, VA 22030 (United States); Gómez-Herrero, R. [Space Research Group, Physics and Mathematics Department, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, E-28871 Spain (Spain); Dresing, N. [Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics, Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel, Kiel D-24118 (Germany); Riley, P. [Predictive Science, 9990 Mesa Rim Road, Suite 170, San Diego, CA 92121 (United States)

    2014-12-10

    We investigate the solar phenomena associated with the origin of the solar energetic particle (SEP) event observed on 2013 April 11 by a number of spacecraft distributed in the inner heliosphere over a broad range of heliolongitudes. We use extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and white-light coronagraph observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), the SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory, and the twin Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory spacecraft (STEREO-A and STEREO-B) to determine the angular extent of the EUV wave and coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the origin of the SEP event. We compare the estimated release time of SEPs observed at each spacecraft with the arrival time of the structures associated with the CME at the footpoints of the field lines connecting each spacecraft with the Sun. Whereas the arrival of the EUV wave and CME-driven shock at the footpoint of STEREO-B is consistent, within uncertainties, with the release time of the particles observed by this spacecraft, the EUV wave never reached the footpoint of the field lines connecting near-Earth observers with the Sun, even though an intense SEP event was observed there. We show that the west flank of the CME-driven shock propagating at high altitudes above the solar surface was most likely the source of the particles observed near Earth, but it did not leave any EUV trace on the solar disk. We conclude that the angular extent of the EUV wave on the solar surface did not agree with the longitudinal extent of the SEP event in the heliosphere. Hence EUV waves cannot be used reliably as a proxy for the solar phenomenon that accelerates and injects energetic particles over broad ranges of longitudes.

  20. Spatiotemporal Organization of Energy Release Events in the Quiet Solar Corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uritsky, Vadim M.; Davila, Joseph M.

    2014-01-01

    Using data from the STEREO and SOHO spacecraft, we show that temporal organization of energy release events in the quiet solar corona is close to random, in contrast to the clustered behavior of flaring times in solar active regions. The locations of the quiet-Sun events follow the meso- and supergranulation pattern of the underling photosphere. Together with earlier reports of the scale-free event size statistics, our findings suggest that quiet solar regions responsible for bulk coronal heating operate in a driven self-organized critical state, possibly involving long-range Alfvenic interactions.

  1. The structure of mid- and high-latitude ionosphere during September 1999 storm event obtained from GPS observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. I. Shagimuratov

    Full Text Available TEC data, obtained from over 60 GPS stations, were used to study the ionospheric effects of the 12–16 September 1999 magnetic storm over Europe. The spatial and temporal changes of the ionosphere were analysed as a time series of TEC maps, which present 15 min averages of TEC. The data set consisting of GPS observations, collected by a dense network of European stations, with sampling rate of 30 s, enable the creation of TEC maps with high spatial and temporal resolution. The storm included the positive as well as the negative phase. The positive phase took place during the first storm day of 12 September 1999. The short-lived daytime TEC enhancement was observed at all latitudes. The maximal enhancement reached a factor of 1.3–1.5. On the second and third days, the negative phase of the storm developed. The TEC decrease was registered regardless of time of the day. The TEC depression exceeded 70% relative to quiet days. On the following days (15 and 16 September, a significant daytime enhancement of TEC was observed once again. The complex occurrence of the ionospheric storm was probably related to the features of development of the magnetic storm. We found out that during the storm the large and medium-scale irregularities developed in the high-latitude ionosphere. The multi-stations technique, employed to create TEC maps, was particularly successful while studying the mid-latitude ionospheric trough. We found out that the essential changes of TEC during the storm, which were registered at the auroral and sub-auroral ionosphere, were connected with the effect of the trough and its dynamics, which depends on geomagnetic activity.

    Key words. Ionosphere (ionospheric disturbances; auroral ionosphere; mid-latitude ionosphere

  2. Analyzing post-wildfire erosional processes and topographic change using hydrologic monitoring and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry at the storm event scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeper, R. J.; Barth, N. C.; Gray, A. B.

    2017-12-01

    Hydro-geomorphic response in recently burned watersheds is highly dependent on the timing and magnitude of subsequent rainstorms. Recent advancements in surveying and monitoring techniques using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry can support the rapid estimation of near cm-scale topographic response of headwater catchments (ha to km2). However, surface change due to shallow erosional processes such as sheetwash and rilling remain challenging to measure at this spatial extent and the storm event scale. To address this issue, we combined repeat UAV-SfM surveys with hydrologic monitoring techniques and field investigations to characterize post-wildfire erosional processes and topographic change on a storm-by-storm basis. The Las Lomas watershed ( 15 ha) burned in the 2016 San Gabriel Complex Fire along the front range of the San Gabriel Mountains, southern California. Surveys were conducted with a consumer grade UAV; twenty-six SfM control markers; two rain gages, and two pressure transducers were installed in the watershed. The initial SfM-derived point cloud generated from 422 photos contains 258 million points; the DEM has a resolution of 2.42 cm/pixel and a point density of 17.1 pts/cm2. Rills began forming on hillslopes and minor erosion occurred within the channel network during the first low intensity storms of the rainy season. Later more intense storms resulted in substantial geomorphic change. Hydrologic data indicate that during one of the intense storms total cumulative rainfall was 58.20 mm and peak 5-min intensity was 38.4 mm/hr. Poststorm field surveys revealed evidence of debris flows, flash flooding, erosion, and fluvial aggradation in the channel network, and rill growth and gully formation on hillslopes. Analyses of the SfM models indicate erosion dominated topographic change in steep channels and on hillslopes; aggradation dominated change in low gradient channels. A contrast of 5 cm exists between field

  3. The investigation of form and processes in the coastal zone under extreme storm events - the case study of Rethymno, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afentoulis, Vasileios; Mohammadi, Bijan; Tsoukala, Vasiliki

    2017-04-01

    Coastal zone is a significant geographical and particular region, since it gathers a wide range of social-human's activities and appears to be a complex as well as fragile system of natural variables. Coastal communities are increasingly at risk from serious coastal hazards, such as shoreline erosion and flooding related to extreme hydro-meteorological events: storm surges, heavy precipitation, tsunamis and tides. In order to investigate the impact of these extreme events on the coastal zone, it is necessary to describe the driving mechanisms which contribute to its destabilization and more precisely the interaction between the wave forces and the transport of sediment. The aim of the present study is to examine the capability of coastal zone processes simulation under extreme wave events, using numerical models, in the coastal area of Rethymno, Greece. Rethymno city is one of the eleven case study areas of PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastal regions) project, an EU funded research project, which aims at developing adaptive risk management strategies for coastal communities focusing on extreme hydro-meteorological events, with a multidisciplinary approach integrating social, environmental and technical research and innovation so as to increase the resilience of coastal regions all over the world. Within this framework, three different numerical models have been used: the MIKE 21 - DHI, the XBeach model and a numerical formulation for sea bed evolution, developed by Afaf Bouharguane and Bijan Mohammadi (2013). For the determination of the wave and hydrodynamic conditions, as well as the assessment of the sediment transport components, the MIKE 21 SW and the MIKE 21 FM modules have been applied and the bathymetry of Rethymno is arranged into a 2D unstructured mesh. This method of digitalization was selected because of its ability to easily represent the complex geometry of the coastal zone. It allows smaller scale wave characteristics to be

  4. Evidence for Alfvén Waves in Source Flares of Impulsive Solar Energetic Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucik, R.; Innes, D.; Mason, G. M.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.; Gomez-Herrero, R.; Nitta, N.

    2017-12-01

    Impulsive solar energetic particle events, characterised by a peculiar elemental composition with the rare elements like 3He and ultra-heavy ions enhanced by factors up to ten thousand above their thermal abundance, have been puzzling for almost 50 years. The solar sources of these events have been commonly associated with coronal jets, believed to be a signature of magnetic reconnection involving field lines open to interplanetary space. Here we present some of the most intense events, highly enriched in both 3He and heavier ions. The corresponding high-resolution, extreme-ultraviolet imaging observations have revealed for the first time a helical structure in the source flare with a jet-like shape. A mini-filament at the base of the jet appears to trigger these events. The events were observed with the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatories on the backside of the Sun, during the period of increased solar activity in 2014. During the last decade, it has been established that the helical motions in coronal jets represent propagating Alfvén waves. Revealing such magnetic-untwisting waves in the solar sources of highly enriched events in this study is consistent with a stochastic acceleration mechanism. An examination of jets in previously reported impulsive solar energetic particle events indicates that they tend to be large-scale blowout jets, sometimes cleanly showing a twisted configuration.The work of R. Bucik is supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft grant BU 3115/2-1.

  5. Minor impact of solar flare events accompanied with SRBT III to the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The dynamical behavior of the Sun exhibits a variety of physical phenomena, some of which are still not at all or only barely understood due to the complexity of the structure of the Sun. The aim of this study is to investigate the correlation of solar flare event and solar radio bursts type III that happen on 23rd July 2017.

  6. High-resolution reconstruction of extreme storm events over the North Sea during the Late Holocene: inferences from aeolian sand influx in coastal mires, Western Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goslin, Jerome; Clemmensen, Lars B.

    2017-04-01

    Possessing long and accurate archives of storm events worldwide is the key for a better understanding of the atmospheric patterns driving these events and of the response of the coastal systems to storms. To be adequately addressed, the ongoing and potential future changes in wind regimes (including in particular the frequency and magnitude of storm events) have to be replaced in the context of long-time records of past storminess, i.e. longer than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data which do not allow the calculation of reliable return periods. During the last decade, several Holocene storminess chronologies have been based on storm-traces left by aeolian processes within coastal lakes, mires and peat bogs, (e.g. Björck and Clemmensen, 2004; De Jong et al., 2006; Clemmensen et al., 2009; Nielsen et al.; 2016; Orme et al., 2016). These data have shown to adequately complement the records which can be derived from the study of records related to wave-induced processes including e.g. washover deposits. Previous works along the west coast of Jutland, Denmark have revealed four main periods of dune building during the last 4200 yrs (Clemmensen et al., 2001; 2009). These were shown to be in phase with periods of climate deterioration (cold periods) recognized elsewhere in Europe and the North Atlantic region and suggest periods of increased aeolian activity. Yet, doubts remain on whether these periods where characterized by several big short-lived storm events or rather by an overall increase in wind energy. This study aims at constructing a high-resolution (centennial to multi-decadal) history of past storminess over the North Sea for the last millenaries. Plurimeter sequences of peat and gyttja have been retrieved from two coastal mires and were analyzed for their sand content. The quartz grains were systematically counted within centimetric slices (Aeolian Sand Influx method, Björck & Clemmensen, 2004), while the palaeo-environmental context and

  7. Solar cosmic ray events at large radial distances from the sun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwickl, R.; Webber, W.R.; McDonald, F.B.; Teegarden, B.; Trainor, J.

    1975-01-01

    Using the GSFC-UNH cosmic ray telescope on Pioneer 10 and 11 we have examined solar cosmic ray events out to a distance approximately 5 AU from the sun. Here we consider two aspects of this work, both related to our anisotropy studies. First, a detailed error analysis of the cosine fit to the anisotropy is presented. Second, we look at the anisotropy and intensity time characteristics during solar events as a function of radial distance. (orig.) [de

  8. Analysis and verification of a prediction model of solar energetic proton events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Zhong, Q.

    2017-12-01

    The solar energetic particle event can cause severe radiation damages near Earth. The alerts and summary products of the solar energetic proton events were provided by the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) according to the flux of the greater than 10 MeV protons taken by GOES satellite in geosynchronous orbit. The start of a solar energetic proton event is defined as the time when the flux of the greater than 10 MeV protons equals or exceeds 10 proton flux units (pfu). In this study, a model was developed to predict the solar energetic proton events, provide the warning for the solar energetic proton events at least minutes in advance, based on both the soft X-ray flux and integral proton flux taken by GOES. The quality of the forecast model was measured against verifications of accuracy, reliability, discrimination capability, and forecast skills. The peak flux and rise time of the solar energetic proton events in the six channels, >1MeV, >5 MeV, >10 MeV, >30 MeV, >50 MeV, >100 MeV, were also simulated and analyzed.

  9. Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

  10. Properties of Ground Level Enhancement Events and the Associated Solar Eruptions During Solar Cycle 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Xie, H.; Yashiro, S.; Akiyama, S.; Makela, P.; Usokin, I. G.

    2012-01-01

    Solar cycle 23 witnessed the most complete set of observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with the Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. We present an overview of the observed properties of the GLEs and those of the two associated phenomena, viz., flares and CMEs, both being potential sources of particle acceleration. Although we do not find a striking correlation between the GLE intensity and the parameters of flares and CMEs, the solar eruptions are very intense involving X-class flares and extreme CME speeds (average approx. 2000 km/s). An M7.1 flare and a 1200 km/s CME are the weakest events in the list of 16 GLE events. Most (80 %) of the CMEs are full halos with the three non-halos having widths in the range 167 to 212 degrees. The active regions in which the GLE events originate are generally large: 1290 msh (median 1010 msh) compared to 934 msh (median: 790 msh) for SEP-producing active regions. For accurate estimation of the CME height at the time of metric type II onset and GLE particle release, we estimated the initial acceleration of the CMEs using flare and CME observations. The initial acceleration of GLE-associated CMEs is much larger (by a factor of 2) than that of ordinary CMEs (2.3 km/sq s vs. 1 km/sq s). We confirmed the initial acceleration for two events for which CME measurements are available in the inner corona. The GLE particle release is delayed with respect to the onset of all electromagnetic signatures of the eruptions: type II bursts, low frequency type III bursts, soft X-ray flares and CMEs. The presence of metric type II radio bursts some 17 min (median: 16 min; range: 3 to 48 min) before the GLE onset indicates shock formation well before the particle release. The release of GLE particles occurs when the CMEs reach an average height of approx 3.09 R(sub s) (median: 3.18 R (sub s) ; range: 1.71 to 4.01 R (sub s) ) for well-connected events (source longitude in the range W20–W90). For poorly connected events, the

  11. THE 'TWIN-CME' SCENARIO AND LARGE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS IN SOLAR CYCLE 23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ding, Liuguan; Jiang, Yong [College of Math and Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210044 (China); Zhao, Lulu; Li, Gang, E-mail: gang.li@uah.edu [Department of Physics and CSPAR, University of Alabama in Huntsville, AL 35899 (United States)

    2013-01-20

    Energetic particles in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a major concern for space weather. Recently, Li et al. proposed a 'twin-CME' scenario for ground-level events. Here we extend that study to large SEP events in solar cycle 23. Depending on whether preceding coronal mass ejections (CMEs) within 9 hr exist and whether ions >10 MeV nucleon{sup -1} exceed 10 pfu, we categorize fast CMEs with speed >900 km s{sup -1} and width >60 Degree-Sign from the western hemisphere source regions into four groups: groups I and II are 'twin' and single CMEs that lead to large SEPs; groups III and IV are 'twin' and single CMEs that do not lead to large SEPs. The major findings of this paper are: first, large SEP events tend to be 'twin-CME' events. Of 59 western large SEP events in solar cycle 23, 43 are 'twin-CME' (group I) events and 16 are single-CME (group II) events. Second, not all 'twin CMEs' produced large SEPs: 28 twin CMEs did not produce large SEPs (group III events). Some of them produced excesses of particles up to a few MeV nucleon{sup -1}. Third, there were 39 single fast CMEs that did not produce SEPs (group IV events). Some of these also showed an excess of particles up to a few MeV nucleon{sup -1}. For all four groups of events, we perform statistical analyses on properties such as the angular width, the speed, the existence of accompanying metric type II radio bursts, and the associated flare class for the main CMEs and the preceding CMEs.

  12. Complex active regions as the main source of extreme and large solar proton events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishkov, V. N.

    2013-12-01

    A study of solar proton sources indicated that solar flare events responsible for ≥2000 pfu proton fluxes mostly occur in complex active regions (CARs), i.e., in transition structures between active regions and activity complexes. Different classes of similar structures and their relation to solar proton events (SPEs) and evolution, depending on the origination conditions, are considered. Arguments in favor of the fact that sunspot groups with extreme dimensions are CARs are presented. An analysis of the flare activity in a CAR resulted in the detection of "physical" boundaries, which separate magnetic structures of the same polarity and are responsible for the independent development of each structure.

  13. Short- and Medium-term Atmospheric Effects of Very Large Solar Proton Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Charles H.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Vitt, Francis M.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Fleming, Eric L.; Labow, Gordon J.; Randall, Cora E.; Lopez-Puertas, Manuel; Funke, Bernd

    2007-01-01

    Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. In particular, the humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone from chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. These anthropogenic effects on ozone are most important in polar regions and have been significant since the 1970s. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the short- and medium-term (days to a few months) influences of solar proton events between 1963 and 2005 on stratospheric ozone. The four largest events in the past 45 years (August 1972; October 1989; July 2000; and October-November 2003) caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen- containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The hydrogen-containing compounds have very short lifetimes and lasted for only a few days (typically the duration of the solar proton event). On the other hand, the nitrogen-containing compounds lasted much longer, especially in the Winter. The nitrogen oxides were predicted

  14. Drained coastal peatlands: A potential nitrogen source to marine ecosystems under prolonged drought and heavy storm events-A microcosm experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongjun; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi; Flanagan, Neal

    2016-10-01

    Over the past several decades there has been a massive increase in coastal eutrophication, which is often caused by increased runoff input of nitrogen from landscape alterations. Peatlands, covering 3% of land area, have stored about 12-21% of global soil organic nitrogen (12-20Pg N) around rivers, lakes and coasts over millennia and are now often drained and farmed. Their huge nitrogen pools may be released by intensified climate driven hydrologic events-prolonged droughts followed by heavy storms-and later transported to marine ecosystems. In this study, we collected peat monoliths from drained, natural, and restored coastal peatlands in the Southeastern U.S., and conducted a microcosm experiment simulating coupled prolonged-drought and storm events to (1) test whether storms could trigger a pulse of nitrogen export from drought-stressed peatlands and (2) assess how differentially hydrologic managements through shifting plant communities affect nitrogen export by combining an experiment of nitrogen release from litter. During the drought phase, we observed a significant temporal variation in net nitrogen mineralization rate (NMR). NMR spiked in the third month and then decreased rapidly. This pattern indicates that drought duration significantly affects nitrogen mineralization in peat. NMR in the drained site reached up to 490±110kgha(-1)year(-1), about 5 times higher than in the restored site. After the 14-month drought phase, we simulated a heavy storm by bringing peat monoliths to saturation. In the discharge waters, concentrations of total dissolved nitrogen in the monoliths from the drained site (72.7±16.3mgL(-1)) was about ten times as high as from the restored site. Our results indicate that previously drained peatlands under prolonged drought are a potent source of nitrogen export. Moreover, drought-induced plant community shifts to herbaceous plants substantially raise nitrogen release with lasting effects by altering litter quality in peatlands

  15. On proton events of different solar activity cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattarov, I.; Sherdanov, Ch.; Sattarov, B.

    1997-01-01

    In solar activity cycle N21 and N22 the latitude distribution of the proton large flares and sunspot groups is being studied. It was found that higher proton activity of cycle N22 is connected with its higher latitude sunspot activity (author)

  16. Enigmatic Solar Wind Disappearance Events – Do We Understand ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Solar wind disappearance—polar field reversals—transient ... unlike its high speed counterpart that emanates only from large open field regions ..... Sheeley, N. R. Jr., Swanson, E. T., Wang, Y.-M. 1991, Out of the ecliptic tests of the inverse.

  17. The Long-term Middle Atmospheric Influence of Very Large Solar Proton Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Charles H.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Vitt, Francis M.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Randall, Cora E.; Fleming, Eric L.; Frith, Stacey M.

    2008-01-01

    Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. The humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone originates from the chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) and has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the long-term (> few months) influences of solar proton events from 1963 through 2004 on stratospheric ozone and temperature. There were extremely large solar proton events in 1972, 1989,2000,2001, and 2003. These events caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen-containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The nitrogen-containing compounds, called odd nitrogen, lasted much longer than the hydrogen-containing compounds and led to long-lived stratospheric impacts. An extremely active period for these events occurred in the five-year period, 2000- 2004, and caused increases in odd nitrogen which lasted for several months after individual events. Associated stratospheric ozone decreases of >lo% were calculated

  18. Solar particle induced upsets in the TDRS-1 attitude control system RAM during the October 1989 solar particle events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croley, D.R.; Garrett, H.B.; Murphy, G.B.; Garrard, T.L.

    1995-01-01

    The three large solar particle events, beginning on October 19, 1989 and lasting approximately six days, were characterized by high fluences of solar protons and heavy ions at 1 AU. During these events, an abnormally large number of upsets (243) were observed in the random access memory of the attitude control system (ACS) control processing electronics (CPE) on-board the geosynchronous TDRS-1 (Telemetry and Data Relay Satellite). The RAM unit affected was composed of eight Fairchild 93L422 memory chips. The Galileo spacecraft, launched on October 18, 1989 (one day prior to the solar particle events) observed the fluxes of heavy ions experienced by TDRS-1. Two solid-state detector telescopes on-board Galileo, designed to measure heavy ion species and energy, were turned on during time periods within each of the three separate events. The heavy ion data have been modeled and the time history of the events reconstructed to estimate heavy ion fluences. These fluences were converted to effective LET spectra after transport through the estimated shielding distribution around the TDRS-1 ACS system. The number of single event upsets (SEU) expected was calculated by integrating the measured cross section for the Fairchild 93L422 memory chip with average effective LET spectrum. The expected number of heavy ion induced SEU's calculated was 176. GOES-7 proton data, observed during the solar particle events, were used to estimate the number of proton-induced SEU's by integrating the proton fluence spectrum incident on the memory chips, with the two-parameter Bendel cross section for proton SEU's. The proton fluence spectrum at the device level was gotten by transporting the protons through the estimated shielding distribution. The number of calculated proton-induced SEU's was 72, yielding a total of 248 predicted SEU's, very close to the 243 observed SEU's

  19. Solar Type II Radio Bursts and IP Type II Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, H. V.; Erickson, W. C.

    2005-01-01

    We have examined radio data from the WAVES experiment on the Wind spacecraft in conjunction with ground-based data in order to investigate the relationship between the shocks responsible for metric type II radio bursts and the shocks in front of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The bow shocks of fast, large CMEs are strong interplanetary (IP) shocks, and the associated radio emissions often consist of single broad bands starting below approx. 4 MHz; such emissions were previously called IP type II events. In contrast, metric type II bursts are usually narrowbanded and display two harmonically related bands. In addition to displaying complete dynamic spectra for a number of events, we also analyze the 135 WAVES 1 - 14 MHz slow-drift time periods in 2001-2003. We find that most of the periods contain multiple phenomena, which we divide into three groups: metric type II extensions, IP type II events, and blobs and bands. About half of the WAVES listings include probable extensions of metric type II radio bursts, but in more than half of these events, there were also other slow-drift features. In the 3 yr study period, there were 31 IP type II events; these were associated with the very fastest CMEs. The most common form of activity in the WAVES events, blobs and bands in the frequency range between 1 and 8 MHz, fall below an envelope consistent with the early signatures of an IP type II event. However, most of this activity lasts only a few tens of minutes, whereas IP type II events last for many hours. In this study we find many examples in the radio data of two shock-like phenomena with different characteristics that occur simultaneously in the metric and decametric/hectometric bands, and no clear example of a metric type II burst that extends continuously down in frequency to become an IP type II event. The simplest interpretation is that metric type II bursts, unlike IP type II events, are not caused by shocks driven in front of CMEs.

  20. Composition variations of low energy heavy ions during large solar energetic particle events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ho, George C., E-mail: George.Ho@jhuapl.edu; Mason, Glenn M., E-mail: Glenn.Mason@jhuapl.edu [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States)

    2016-03-25

    The time-intensity profile of large solar energetic particle (SEP) event is well organized by solar longitude as observed at Earth orbit. This is mostly due to different magnetic connection to the shock that is associated with large SEP event propagates from the Sun to the heliosphere. Earlier studies have shown event averaged heavy ion abundance ratios can also vary as a function of solar longitude. It was found that the Fe/O ratio for high energy particle (>10 MeV/nucleon) is higher for those western magnetically well connected events compare to the eastern events as observed at L1 by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. In this paper, we examined the low energy (∼1 MeV/nucleon) heavy ions in 110 isolated SEP events from 2009 to the end of 2014. In addition, the optical and radio signatures for all of our events are identified and when data are available we also located the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) data. Our survey shows a higher Fe/O ratio at events in the well-connected region, while there are no corrections between the event averaged elemental composition with the associated coronal mass ejection speed. This is inconsistent with the higher energy results, but inline with other recent low-energy measurements.

  1. WAITING TIME DISTRIBUTION OF SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS MODELED WITH A NON-STATIONARY POISSON PROCESS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.; Su, W.; Fang, C.; Zhong, S. J.; Wang, L.

    2014-01-01

    We present a study of the waiting time distributions (WTDs) of solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed with the spacecraft WIND and GOES. The WTDs of both solar electron events (SEEs) and solar proton events (SPEs) display a power-law tail of ∼Δt –γ . The SEEs display a broken power-law WTD. The power-law index is γ 1 = 0.99 for the short waiting times (<70 hr) and γ 2 = 1.92 for large waiting times (>100 hr). The break of the WTD of SEEs is probably due to the modulation of the corotating interaction regions. The power-law index, γ ∼ 1.82, is derived for the WTD of the SPEs which is consistent with the WTD of type II radio bursts, indicating a close relationship between the shock wave and the production of energetic protons. The WTDs of SEP events can be modeled with a non-stationary Poisson process, which was proposed to understand the waiting time statistics of solar flares. We generalize the method and find that, if the SEP event rate λ = 1/Δt varies as the time distribution of event rate f(λ) = Aλ –α exp (– βλ), the time-dependent Poisson distribution can produce a power-law tail WTD of ∼Δt α –3 , where 0 ≤ α < 2

  2. DEFLECTIONS OF FAST CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AND THE PROPERTIES OF ASSOCIATED SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahler, S. W.; Akiyama, S.; Gopalswamy, N.

    2012-01-01

    The onset times and peak intensities of solar energetic particle (SEP) events at Earth have long been thought to be influenced by the open magnetic fields of coronal holes (CHs). The original idea was that a CH lying between the solar SEP source region and the magnetic footpoint of the 1 AU observer would result in a delay in onset and/or a decrease in the peak intensity of that SEP event. Recently, Gopalswamy et al. showed that CHs near coronal mass ejection (CME) source regions can deflect fast CMEs from their expected trajectories in space, explaining the appearance of driverless shocks at 1 AU from CMEs ejected near solar central meridian (CM). This suggests that SEP events originating in CME-driven shocks may show variations attributable to CH deflections of the CME trajectories. Here, we use a CH magnetic force parameter to examine possible effects of CHs on the timing and intensities of 41 observed gradual E ∼ 20 MeV SEP events with CME source regions within 20° of CM. We find no systematic CH effects on SEP event intensity profiles. Furthermore, we find no correlation between the CME leading-edge measured position angles and SEP event properties, suggesting that the widths of CME-driven shock sources of the SEPs are much larger than the CMEs. Independently of the SEP event properties, we do find evidence for significant CME deflections by CH fields in these events.

  3. DEFLECTIONS OF FAST CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AND THE PROPERTIES OF ASSOCIATED SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahler, S. W. [Air Force Research Laboratory, Space Vehicles Directorate, 3550 Aberdeen Avenue, Kirtland AFB, NM 87117 (United States); Akiyama, S. [Institute for Astrophyics and Computational Sciences, Catholic University of America, Washington, DC 20064 (United States); Gopalswamy, N., E-mail: AFRL.RVB.PA@kirtland.af.mil [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2012-08-01

    The onset times and peak intensities of solar energetic particle (SEP) events at Earth have long been thought to be influenced by the open magnetic fields of coronal holes (CHs). The original idea was that a CH lying between the solar SEP source region and the magnetic footpoint of the 1 AU observer would result in a delay in onset and/or a decrease in the peak intensity of that SEP event. Recently, Gopalswamy et al. showed that CHs near coronal mass ejection (CME) source regions can deflect fast CMEs from their expected trajectories in space, explaining the appearance of driverless shocks at 1 AU from CMEs ejected near solar central meridian (CM). This suggests that SEP events originating in CME-driven shocks may show variations attributable to CH deflections of the CME trajectories. Here, we use a CH magnetic force parameter to examine possible effects of CHs on the timing and intensities of 41 observed gradual E {approx} 20 MeV SEP events with CME source regions within 20 Degree-Sign of CM. We find no systematic CH effects on SEP event intensity profiles. Furthermore, we find no correlation between the CME leading-edge measured position angles and SEP event properties, suggesting that the widths of CME-driven shock sources of the SEPs are much larger than the CMEs. Independently of the SEP event properties, we do find evidence for significant CME deflections by CH fields in these events.

  4. Deflections of Fast Coronal Mass Ejections and the Properties of Associated Solar Energetic Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Akiyama, S.; Gopalswamy, N.

    2012-01-01

    The onset times and peak intensities of solar energetic particle (SEP) events at Earth have long been thought to be influenced by the open magnetic fields of coronal holes (CHs). The original idea was that a CH lying between the solar SEP source region and the magnetic footpoint of the 1 AU observer would result in a delay in onset and/or a decrease in the peak intensity of that SEP event. Recently, Gopalswamy et al. showed that CHs near coronal mass ejection (CME) source regions can deflect fast CMEs from their expected trajectories in space, explaining the appearance of driverless shocks at 1 AU from CMEs ejected near solar central meridian (CM). This suggests that SEP events originating in CME-driven shocks may show variations attributable to CH deflections of the CME trajectories. Here, we use a CH magnetic force parameter to examine possible effects of CHs on the timing and intensities of 41 observed gradual E approx 20 MeV SEP events with CME source regions within 20 deg. of CM. We find no systematic CH effects on SEP event intensity profiles. Furthermore, we find no correlation between the CME leading-edge measured position angles and SEP event properties, suggesting that the widths of CME-driven shock sources of the SEPs are much larger than the CMEs. Independently of the SEP event properties, we do find evidence for significant CME deflections by CH fields in these events

  5. Search for correlation of neutrino events with solar flares in Kamiokande

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirata, K.S.; Kajita, T.; Kifune, T.

    1988-10-01

    A search has been made for a correlation between large solar flares and neutrino events observed in Kamiokande for the period of July 1983 - July 1988. No significant neutrino signal was found at the time of a solar flare, giving a limit on the time integrated 'solar-flare' ν e flux 7 (2.5 x 10 9 )/cm 2 per flare at 90 % confidence level, for E ν = 100 (50) MeV. These limits are 2000 (60) times smaller than the value required for neutrinos with those energies to account for the excess of signal in the 37 Cl solar neutrino experiment at some of the corresponding solar flare times. (author)

  6. Analysis of aluminum protective effect for female astronauts in solar particle events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Feng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to ensure the health and safety of female astronauts in space, the risks of space radiation should be evaluated, and effective methods for protecting against space radiation should be investigated. In this paper, a dose calculation model is established for Chinese female astronauts. The absorbed doses of some organs in two historical solar particle events are calculated using Monte Carlo methods, and the shielding conditions are 0 gcm-2 and 5 gcm-2 aluminum, respectively. The calculated results are analysed, compared, and discussed. The results show that 5 gcm-2 aluminum cannot afford enough effective protection in solar particle events. Hence, once encountering solar particle events in manned spaceflight missions, in order to ensure the health and safety of female astronauts, they are not allowed to stay in the pressure vessel, and must enter into the thicker shielding location such as food and water storage cabin.

  7. Magnetic storm effect on the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities at an equatorial station in the African sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olushola Abel Oladipo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale ionospheric irregularities usually measured by GPS TEC fluctuation indices are regular occurrence at the equatorial region shortly after sunset around solar maximum. Magnetic storm can trigger or inhibit the generation of these irregularities depending on the local time the main phase of a particular storm occurs. We studied the effect of nine (9 distinct storms on the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities at Fraceville in Gabon (Lat = −1.63˚, Long = 13.55˚, dip lat. = −15.94˚, an equatorial station in the African sector. These storms occurred between November 2001 and September 2002. We used TEC fluctuation indices (i.e. ROTI and ROTIAVE estimated from 30 s interval Rinex data and also we used the storm indices (i.e. Dst, dDst/dt, and IMF BZ to predict the likely effect of each storm on the irregularities occurrence at this station. The results obtained showed that most of the storms studied inhibited ionospheric irregularities. Only one out of all the storms studied (i.e. September 4, 2002 storms with the main phase on the night of September 7-8 triggered post-midnight ionospheric irregularities. There are two of the storms during which ionospheric irregularities were observed. However, these may not be solely attributed to the storms event because the level of irregularities observed during these two storms is comparable to that observed during previous days before the storms. For this station and for the storms investigated, it seems like a little modification to the use of Aarons categories in terms of the local time the maximum negative Dst occurs could lead to a better prediction. However, it would require investigating many storms during different level of solar activities and at different latitudes to generalize this modification.

  8. The effect of magnetic storm on the bottomside profile parameters B0 and

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adeniyi, J.O.; Radicella, S.M.

    2001-01-01

    We have used data from an equatorial station for the investigation of magnetic storm effects on B0 and B1. Three storm events, which occurred in January, April and October of a low solar activity year (1995), were used for the study. B0 is the parameter that is mostly affected and the effect is concentrated on the daytime period (0700-1700LT). (author)

  9. Observation and Interpretation of Energetic Neutral Hydrogen Atoms from the December 5, 2006 Solar Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mewaldt, R. A.; Leske, R. A.; Stone, E. C.; Barghouty, A. F.; Shih, A. Y.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Labrador, A. W.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. C.; Cummings, A. C.

    2009-01-01

    We report the first observations of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) from a solar flare/coronal mass ejection event. The observations were made during the December 5, 2006 X9 solar flare, located at E79, by the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on the STEREO A and B spacecraft. Within 1-2 hours of the flare onset, both LETs observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV protons arriving hours before the onset of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth. More than 70% of these particles arrived from a longitude within +-10 degrees of the Sun. The derived emission profile at the Sun lasted for more than an hour and had a profile remarkably similar to the GOES soft X-ray profile. The observed arrival directions and energy spectrum argue strongly that the particle events atoms that were stripped of their electrons upon entering the LET sensor. To our knowledge, this is the first reported observation of ENA emission from a solar flare/coronal mass ejection. We discuss possible origins for the production of ENAs in solar events, including charge-transfer reactions involving both flare and shock-accelerated protons. Assuming isotropic emission, we find that 2 x 10E28 ENAs escaped from the Sun in the upper hemisphere. Based on the 2.2 MeV gamma-ray emission observed by RHESSI in this event, and using measured and theoretical cross sections, we estimate that 3 x 10E31 ENAs with 1.8 - 5 MeV could be produced by protons accelerated in the flare. CME-driven shock acceleration is also a possible ENA source, but unfortunately there were no CME observations available from this event. Taking into account ENA losses, we conclude that the observed ENAs were most likely produced in the high corona at heliocentric distances 1.6 solar radii.

  10. A large-scale dataset of solar event reports from automated feature recognition modules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuh, Michael A.; Angryk, Rafal A.; Martens, Petrus C.

    2016-05-01

    The massive repository of images of the Sun captured by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission has ushered in the era of Big Data for Solar Physics. In this work, we investigate the entire public collection of events reported to the Heliophysics Event Knowledgebase (HEK) from automated solar feature recognition modules operated by the SDO Feature Finding Team (FFT). With the SDO mission recently surpassing five years of operations, and over 280,000 event reports for seven types of solar phenomena, we present the broadest and most comprehensive large-scale dataset of the SDO FFT modules to date. We also present numerous statistics on these modules, providing valuable contextual information for better understanding and validating of the individual event reports and the entire dataset as a whole. After extensive data cleaning through exploratory data analysis, we highlight several opportunities for knowledge discovery from data (KDD). Through these important prerequisite analyses presented here, the results of KDD from Solar Big Data will be overall more reliable and better understood. As the SDO mission remains operational over the coming years, these datasets will continue to grow in size and value. Future versions of this dataset will be analyzed in the general framework established in this work and maintained publicly online for easy access by the community.

  11. Relationships of storm-time changes in thermospheric mass density with solar wind/IMF parameters and ring current index of Sym-H

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yunliang; Ma, S. Y.; Xiong, Chao; Luehr, Hermann

    The total air mass densities at about 500 km altitude are derived using super-STAR accelerom-eter measurements onboard GRACE satellites for 25 great magnetic storms with minimum Dst less than 100 nT during 2002 to 2006 years. Taking NRLMSISE-00 model-predicted densities without active ap index input as a reference baseline of quiet-time mass density, the storm-time changes in upper thermospheric mass densities are obtained by subtraction for all the storm events and sorted into different grids of latitude by local time sector. The relationships of the storm-time density changes with various interplanetary parameters and magnetospheric ring current index of Sym-H are statistically investigated. The parameters include Akasofu energy coupling function, the merging electric field Em, the magnitude of IMF component in the GSM y-z plane etc. as calculated from OMNI data at 1 AU. It is found that the storm-time changes in the upper thermospheric mass density have the best linear correlation with the Sym-H index in general, showing nearly zero time delay at low-latitudes and a little time ahead at high-latitudes for most cases. Unexpectedly, the magnitude of IMF component in the y-z plane, Byz, shows correlation with storm-time mass density changes better and closer than Akasofu function and even Em. And, the mass density changes lag behind Byz about 1-4 hours for most cases at low-latitudes. The correlations considered above are local time dependent, showing the lowest at dusk sectors. For the largest superstorm of November 2003, the changes in mass density are correlated very closely with Byz, Em, and Sym-H index, showing correlation coefficients averaged over all latitudes in noon sector as high as 0.93, 0.91 and 0.90 separately. The physical factors controlling the lag times between the mass density changes at mid-low-latitudes and the interplanetary parameter variations are also analyzed. The results in this study may pro-vide useful suggestions for establishing

  12. Evaluation of geomagnetic storm effects on the GPS derived Total Electron Content (TEC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purohit, P K; Atulkar, Roshni; Mansoori, Azad A; Khan, Parvaiz A; Bhawre, Purushottam; Tripathi, Sharad C; Khatarkar, Prakash; Bhardwaj, Shivangi; Aslam, A M; Waheed, Malik A; Gwal, A K

    2015-01-01

    The geomagnetic storm represents the most outstanding example of solar wind- magnetospheric interaction, which causes global disturbances in the geomagnetic field as well as triggers ionospheric disturbances. We study the behaviour of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) during the geomagnetic storms. For this investigation we have selected 47 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100nT) that were observed during the solar cycle 23 i.e. during 1998- 2006. We then categorized these storms into four categories depending upon their solar sources like Magnetic Cloud (MC), Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR), SH+ICME and SH+MC. We then studied the behaviour of ionospheric TEC at a mid latitude station Usuda (36.13N, 138.36E), Japan during these storm events produced by four different solar sources. During our study we found that the smooth variations in TEC are replaced by rapid fluctuations and the value of TEC is strongly enhanced during the time of these storms belonging to all the four categories. However, the greatest enhancements in TEC are produced during those geomagnetic storms which are either caused by Sheath driven Magnetic cloud (SH+MC) or Sheath driven ICME (SH+ICME). We also derived the correlation between the TEC enhancements produced during storms of each category with the minimum Dst. We found the strongest correlation exists for the SH+ICME category followed by SH+MC, MC and finally CIR. Since the most intense storms were either caused by SH+ICME or SH+MC while the least intense storms were caused by CIR, consequently the correlation was strongest with SH+ICME and SH+MC and least with CIR. (paper)

  13. Summary of significant solar-initiated events during STIP interval XII

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gergely, T.E.

    1982-01-01

    A summary of the significant solar-terrestrial events of STIP Interval XII (April 10-July 1, 1981) is presented. It is shown that the first half of the interval was extremely active, with several of the largest X-ray flares, particle events, and shocks of this solar cycle taking place during April and the first half of May. However, the second half of the interval was characterized by relatively quiet conditions. A detailed examination is presented of several large events which occurred on 10, 24, and 27 April and on 8 and 16 May. It is suggested that the comparison and statistical analysis of the numerous events for which excellent observations are available could provide information on what causes a type II burst to propagate in the interplanetary medium

  14. July 1974 solar events: a possible lower limit for microwave activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaufmann, P; Iacomo, P Jr; Koppe, E H; Marques dos Santos, P; Schaal, R E [Universidade Mackenzie, Sao Paulo (Brazil). Centro de Radio-Astronomia e Astrofisica; Blakey, J R [Surrey Univ., Guildford (UK). Dept. of Physics

    1975-11-01

    The active region McMath 10433 was the source of several flares and radio outbursts during the early part of July 1974. This region was tracked continuously, for several periods during the month at 22.2 GHz using a telescope with a 4 minutes of arc beam. Comparison with the results obtained simultaneously with a normal 7 GHz solar instrument indicate that there is important burst activity occurring at levels below the detection limit of normal solar patrol instruments. The time-development morphology of these bursts is similar to those normally observed and has enabled the simple events to be re-interpreted. A completely new type of event-the fast absorption-has also been recognized. The correlation of the microwave events with SPA events observed on VLF propagation is also discussed.

  15. Assessing the continuity of the upland sediment cascade, fluvial geomorphic response of an upland river to an extreme flood event: Storm Desmond, Cumbria, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Hannah; Hardy, Richard; Warburton, Jeff

    2017-04-01

    Hillslope erosion and accelerated lake sedimentation are often viewed as the source and main storage elements in the upland sediment cascade. However, the continuity of sediment transfer through intervening valley systems has rarely been evaluated during extreme events. Storm Desmond (4th - 6th December, 2015) produced record-breaking rainfall maximums in the UK: 341.4 mm rainfall was recorded in a 24 hour period at Honister Pass, Western Lake District, and 405 mm of rainfall was recorded in a 38 hour period at Thirlmere, central Lake District. The storm was the largest in a 150 year local rainfall series, and exceeded previous new records set in the 2005 and 2009 floods. During this exceptional event, rivers over topped flood defences, and caused damage to over 257 bridges, flooded over 5000 homes and businesses, and caused substantial geomorphic change along upland rivers. This research quantifies the geomorphic and sedimentary response to Storm Desmond along a regulated gravel-bed river: St John's Beck. St John's Beck (length 7.8 km) is a channelised low gradient river (0.005) downstream of Thirlmere Reservoir, which joins the River Greta, and flows through Keswick, where major flooding has occurred, before discharging into Bassenthwaite Lake. St John's Beck has a history of chronic sediment aggradation, erosion and reports of historic flooding date back to 1750. During Storm Desmond, riverbanks were eroded, coarse sediment was deposited across valuable farmland and access routes were destroyed, including a bridge and footpaths, disrupting local business. A sediment budget framework has been used to quantify geomorphic change and sedimentary characteristics of the event along St John's Beck. The volume and sediment size distribution of flood deposits, channel bars, tributary deposits, floodplain scour, riverbank erosion and in-channel bars were measured directly in the field and converted to mass using local estimates of coarse and fine sediment bulk densities

  16. Effects of solar proton events on dayglow observed by the TIMED/SABER satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hong; Xu, Jiyao; Smith, Anne K.; Chen, Guang-Ming

    2017-07-01

    The effect of solar proton events on the daytime O2 and OH airglows and ozone and atomic oxygen concentrations in the mesosphere is studied using data from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). Five events occurred in September 2005, December 2006, March 2012, May 2013, and June 2015 that satisfy two criteria: the maximum proton fluxes are larger than 1000 pfu, and daytime data in the high latitude region are available from SABER. The event in December 2006 is studied in detail, and the effects of all five events are compared in brief. The results indicate that all four parameters in the mesosphere decrease during the events. During the event in 2006, the maximum depletions of O2 and OH dayglow emission rates and ozone and atomic oxygen volume mixing ratios at 70 km are respectively 31.6%, 37.0%, 42.4%, and 38.9%. The effect of the solar proton event changes with latitude, longitude, and altitude. The depletions due to the stronger events are larger on average than those due to the weaker events. The depletions of both dayglow emission rates are weaker than those of ozone and atomic oxygen. The responses of O2 and OH nightglow emissions around their peak altitudes to the SPEs are not as strong and regular as those for dayglow in the mesosphere.

  17. August 1972 solar-terrestrial events: interplanetary magnetic field observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, E J [Jet Propulsion Lab., Pasadena, Calif. (USA)

    1976-10-01

    A review is presented of the interplanetary magnetic field observations acquired in early August 1972 when four solar flares erupted in McMath Plage region 1976. Measurements of the interplanetary field were obtained by Earth satellites, HEOS-2 and Explorer 41, and by Pioneers 9 and 10 which, by good fortune, were radially aligned and only 45/sup 0/ east of the Earth-Sun direction. In response to the four flares, four interplanetary shocks were seen at Earth and at Pioneer 9, which was then at a heliocentric distance of 0.78 AU. However, at Pioneer 10, which was 2.2 AU from the Sun, only two forward shocks and one reverse shock were seen. The available magnetic field data acquired in the vicinity of the shocks are presented. Efforts to identify corresponding shocks at the several locations and to deduce their velocities of propagation between 0.8 and 2.2 AU are reviewed. The early studies were based on average velocities between the Sun and Pioneer 9, the Sun and Earth and the Sun and Pioneer 10. A large deceleration of the shocks between the Sun and 0.8 AU as well as between 0.8 and 2.2 AU was inferred. More recently the local velocities of the shocks at Pioneers 9 and 10 have become available. A comparision of these velocities shows little, if any, deceleration between 0.8 and 2.2 AU and implies that most or all of the deceleration actually occurred nearer the Sun. Evidence is also presented that shows a significant departure of the flare-generated shock fronts from spherical symmetry.

  18. Learning Storm

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Ankit

    2014-01-01

    If you are a Java developer who wants to enter into the world of real-time stream processing applications using Apache Storm, then this book is for you. No previous experience in Storm is required as this book starts from the basics. After finishing this book, you will be able to develop not-so-complex Storm applications.

  19. Two Exceptions in the Large SEP Events of Solar Cycles 23 and 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, N.; Gopalswamy, N.; Makela, P.; Akiyama, S.; Yashiro, S.; Xie, H.

    2016-01-01

    We discuss our findings from a survey of all large solar energetic particle (SEP) events of Solar Cycles 23 and 24, i.e. the SEP events where the intensity of greater than 10 megaelectronvolts protons observed by GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) was greater than 10 proton flux units. In our previous work (Gopalswamy et al. in Geophys.Res.Lett. 41, 2673, 2014) we suggested that ground level enhancements (GLEs) in Cycles 23 and 24 also produce an intensity increase in the GOES greater than 700 megaelectronvolts proton channel. Our survey, now extended to include all large SEP events of Cycle 23, confirms this to be true for all but two events: i) the GLE of 6 May 1998 (GLE57) for which GOES did not observe enhancement in greater than 700 megaelectronvolts protons intensities and ii) a high-energy SEP event of 8 November 2000, for which GOES observed greater than 700 megaelectronvolts protons but no GLE was recorded. Here we discuss these two exceptions. We compare GLE57 with other small GLEs, and the 8 November 2000 SEP event with those that showed similar intensity increases in the GOES greater than 700 megaelectronvolts protons but produced GLEs. We find that, because GOES greater than 700 megaelectronvolts proton intensity enhancements are typically small for small GLEs, they are difficult to discern near solar minima due to higher background. Our results also support that GLEs are generally observed when shocks of the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) form at heights 1.2-1.93 solar radii [R (sub solar)] and when the solar particle release occurs between 2-6 solar radii [R (sub solar)]. Our secondary findings support the view that the nose region of the CME-shock may be accelerating the first-arriving GLE particles and the observation of a GLE is also dependent on the latitudinal connectivity of the observer to the CME-shock nose. We conclude that the GOES greater than 700 megaelectronvolts proton channel can be used as an indicator

  20. The comparison of SRs' variation affected by solar events observed in America and in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, H.; Williams, E.

    2017-12-01

    Schumann Resonances(SRs) are the electromagnetic resonance wave propagating in the earth-ionosphere cavity. Its characteristic of propagation are modified by the variation of ionosphere. So SRs can be the tools of monitoring the ionosphere which is often perturbed by solar events, x-ray emission and some other space-weather events (Roldugin et.al., 2004, De et al., 2010; Satori et.al., 2015). In present work, the amplitude and intrinsic frequencies of SRs observed at RID station in America and YSH station in China are compared. The variation of SRs during the solar flare on Feb. 15, 2011 are analyzed. Two-Dimensional Telegraph Equation(TDTE) method is used to simulate the perturbation of ionosphere by solar proton events. From the simulation and observation, the asymmetric construction of ionoshphere which is perturbed by the solar event will affect the amplitudes and frequencies of SRs. Due to the interfere influence of forward and backward propagation of electromagnetic field, the SR amplitude on different station will present different variation. The distance among the lightning source, observer and perturbed area will produce the different variation of amplitude and frequency for different station' SR.

  1. Solar Power Ramp Events Detection Using an Optimized Swinging Door Algorithm: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cui, Mingjian; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Ke, Deping; Sun, Yuanzhang

    2015-08-07

    Solar power ramp events (SPREs) are those that significantly influence the integration of solar power on non-clear days and threaten the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Accurately extracting solar power ramps becomes more important with increasing levels of solar power penetrations in power systems. In this paper, we develop an optimized swinging door algorithm (OpSDA) to detection. First, the swinging door algorithm (SDA) is utilized to segregate measured solar power generation into consecutive segments in a piecewise linear fashion. Then we use a dynamic programming approach to combine adjacent segments into significant ramps when the decision thresholds are met. In addition, the expected SPREs occurring in clear-sky solar power conditions are removed. Measured solar power data from Tucson Electric Power is used to assess the performance of the proposed methodology. OpSDA is compared to two other ramp detection methods: the SDA and the L1-Ramp Detect with Sliding Window (L1-SW) method. The statistical results show the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method. OpSDA can significantly improve the performance of the SDA, and it can perform as well as or better than L1-SW with substantially less computation time.

  2. “I think we need to get a better generator”: Household resilience to disruption to power supply during storm events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghanem, Dana Abi; Mander, Sarah; Gough, Clair

    2016-01-01

    Electricity is becoming ever more central to the everyday practices of households. As the energy system decarbonises, it is likely that electricity will supply even more services, thereby increasing the dependence of communities on reliable electricity supply. In this situation, the risk of power outages during extreme weather events poses a serious challenge to the safety and wellbeing of communities. However, little is known of the capacity of households to manage normal day-to-day life in such circumstances. This paper focuses on the UK winter storms that occurred in February 2014, the result of which 80,000 homes were left without power and communities not reconnected for several days. We outline the impacts these power outages had on households, describing the challenges faced and the strategies adopted to alleviate impacts. This provides insight into everyday household-level resilience achieved through social and material elements that constitute everyday life. - Highlights: •The resilience of UK householders to power cuts due to storms was explored. •Resilience is achieved through modifying everyday electricity-related practices. •DNO's should explore how to use community networks to communicate with households.

  3. Distributions of typical contaminant species in urban short-term storm runoff and their fates during rain events: a case of Xiamen City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Qunshan; Zhu, Gefu; Wu, Peng; Cui, Li; Zhang, Kaisong; Zhou, Jingjing; Zhang, Wenru

    2010-01-01

    The pollutants in urban storm runoff, which lead to an non-point source contamination of water environment around cities, are of great concerns. The distributions of typical contaminants and the variations of their species in short term storm runoff from different land surfaces in Xiamen City were investigated. The concentrations of various contaminants, including organic matter, nutrients (i.e., N and P) and heavy metals, were significantly higher in parking lot and road runoff than those in roof and lawn runoff. The early runoff samples from traffic road and parking lot contained much high total nitrogen (TN 6-19 mg/L) and total phosphorus (TP 1-3 mg/L). A large proportion (around 60%) of TN existed as total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) species in most runoff. The percentage of TDN and the percentage of total dissolved phosphorus remained relatively stable during the rain events and did not decrease as dramatically as TN and TP. In addition, only parking lot and road runoff were contaminated by heavy metals, and both Pb (25-120 microg/L) and Zn (0.1-1.2 mg/L) were major heavy metals contaminating both runoff. Soluble Pb and Zn were predominantly existed as labile complex species (50%-99%), which may be adsorbed onto the surfaces of suspended particles and could be easily released out when pH decreased. This would have the great impact to the environment.

  4. Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Ching-Cheh

    2007-01-01

    A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.

  5. Joint Ne/O and Fe/O Analysis to Diagnose Large Solar Energetic Particle Events during Solar Cycle 23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tan, Lun C.; Shao, Xi [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Malandraki, Olga E., E-mail: ltan@umd.edu [IAASARS, National Observatory of Athens, GR-15236, Penteli (Greece)

    2017-02-01

    We have examined 29 large solar energetic particle (SEP) events with the peak proton intensity J {sub pp}(>60 MeV) > 1 pfu during solar cycle 23. The emphasis of our examination is put on a joint analysis of Ne/O and Fe/O data in the energy range (3–40 MeV nucleon{sup −1}) covered by Wind /Low-Energy Matrix Telescope and ACE /Solar Isotope Spectrometer sensors in order to differentiate between the Fe-poor and Fe-rich events that emerged from the coronal mass ejection driven shock acceleration process. An improved ion ratio calculation is carried out by rebinning ion intensity data into the form of equal bin widths in the logarithmic energy scale. Through the analysis we find that the variability of Ne/O and Fe/O ratios can be used to investigate the accelerating shock properties. In particular, the high-energy Ne/O ratio is well correlated with the source plasma temperature of SEPs.

  6. Survey of ionic charge states of solar energetic particle events during the first year of ACE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moebius, E.; Popecki, M.A.; Morris, D.; Galvin, A.B.; Heirtzler, D.; Kistler, L.M.; Siren, C.; Klecker, B.; Bogdanov, A.T.; Hovestadt, D.; Mason, G.M.; Dwyer, J.R.; Stone, E.C.

    2000-01-01

    The ionic charge state distributions of solar energetic particle events are determined with ACE SEPICA on an event by event basis, over the time period from launch through the end of 1998. Because of the large geometric factor of SEPICA the observations can be extended to events with very low fluxes. The study is confined to the most abundant species O, Ne, Mg, and Fe. Mean charge states for Fe are observed to vary between ≅11 for CME related events and ≅20 for small events that carry signatures of impulsive events. For these events all elements up to Mg, appear almost fully ionized. The charge states of all species follow the same trend as that of Fe in their variation from event to event. A comparison of observed mean charge states with a model assuming thermal equilibrium shows a general agreement with temperatures ranging from 1.2-10·10 6 K. However, noticeable deviations from charge states at a unique temperature for all species are seen for O at high and for Mg at both high and low charge states, which may suggest the presence of other processes. A distinct correlation is observed between the charge states and the overabundance of heavy ions in comparison with O. It remains puzzling that events with substantial deviations from coronal abundance accelerate almost fully stripped ions, which do not lend themselves easily to fractionation processes based on mass and charge

  7. Can high-energy proton events in solar wind be predicted via classification of precursory structures?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallerberg, Sarah [Chemnitz University of Technology (Germany); Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Feynman, Joan [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (United States)

    2011-07-01

    Shock waves in the solar wind associated with solar coronal mass ejections produce fluxes of high-energy protons and ions with energies larger than 10 MeV. These fluxes present a danger to humans and electronic equipment in space, and also endanger passengers of over-pole air flights. The approaches that have been exploited for the prediction of high-energy particle events so far consist in training artificial neural networks on catalogues of events. Our approach towards this task is based on the identification of precursory structures in the fluxes of particles. In contrast to artificial neural networks that function as a ''black box'' transforming data into predictions, this classification approach can additionally provide information on relevant precursory events and thus might help to improve the understanding of underlying mechanisms of particle acceleration.

  8. Solar-terrestrial disturbances in June-September 1982, 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ondoh, Tadanori

    1985-01-01

    The x-ray detector on the SMS-GOES satellite observed 77 solar x-ray flares (1 - 8A) with flux above 10 -5 W/m 2 in June, 1982, and 33 SIDs with importance above 2 were observed in Hiraiso, Japan. However, the geomagnetic storm with Dst above 100 nT did not occur at that time since most solar flares occurred near the east rim of the sun. These solar active regions lasted for 5 solar rotations, then, the great geomagnetic storms with Dst above 100 nT occurred on July 13 - 15, September 5 - 7 and September 21 - 23, 1982. These geomagnetic storms were preceded by the solar flares of importance above 2B occurred in the central part of the solar disc. From September 26 to 27, 1982, a great geomagnetic storm which was not accompanied by solar flare occurred. This paper summarized the studies on solar-terrestrial events from June to September, 1982, made by the space physics and aeronomy groups of the Radio Research Laboratories, Japan. The solar flares occurred on July 12, September 4 and 19, 1982, the geomagnetic storms corresponding to them, the cosmic ray storms observed on July 13 - 19, September 6 - 9 and 21 - 26, 1982, global equivalent current system and others are reported. (Kako, I.)

  9. Long-lasting solar energetic electron injection during the 26 Dec 2013 widespread SEP event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dresing, N.; Klassen, A.; Temmer, M.; Gomez-Herrero, R.; Heber, B.; Veronig, A.

    2017-12-01

    The solar energetic particle (SEP) event on 26 Dec 2013 was detected all around the Sun by the two STEREO spacecraft and close-to-Earth observers. While the two STEREOs were separated by 59 degrees and situated at the front side of the associated large coronal event, it was a backside-event for Earth. Nevertheless, significant and long-lasting solar energetic electron anisotropies together with long rise times were observed at all three viewpoints, pointing to an extended electron injection. Although the CME-driven shock appears to account for the SEP event at a first glance a more detailed view reveals a more complex scenario: A CME-CME interaction takes place during the very early phase of the SEP event. Furthermore, four hours after the onset of the event, a second component is measured at all three viewpoints on top of the first SEP increase, mainly consisting of high energy particles. We find that the CME-driven shock alone can hardly account for the observed SEP event in total but a trapping scenario together with ongoing particle acceleration is more likely.

  10. INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS IN THE 2013 MAY 22 LARGE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding, Liu-Guan; Xu, Fei; Gu, Bin; Zhang, Ya-Nan; Li, Gang; Jiang, Yong; Le, Gui-Ming; Shen, Cheng-Long; Wang, Yu-Ming; Chen, Yao

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the eruption and interaction of two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the large 2013 May 22 solar energetic particle event using multiple spacecraft observations. Two CMEs, having similar propagation directions, were found to erupt from two nearby active regions (ARs), AR11748 and AR11745, at ∼08:48 UT and ∼13:25 UT, respectively. The second CME was faster than the first CME. Using the graduated cylindrical shell model, we reconstructed the propagation of these two CMEs and found that the leading edge of the second CME caught up with the trailing edge of the first CME at a height of ∼6 solar radii. After about two hours, the leading edges of the two CMEs merged at a height of ∼20 solar radii. Type II solar radio bursts showed strong enhancement during this two hour period. Using the velocity dispersion method, we obtained the solar particle release (SPR) time and the path length for energetic electrons. Further assuming that energetic protons propagated along the same interplanetary magnetic field, we also obtained the SPR time for energetic protons, which were close to that of electrons. These release times agreed with the time when the second CME caught up with the trailing edge of the first CME, indicating that the CME-CME interaction (and shock-CME interaction) plays an important role in the process of particle acceleration in this event

  11. The first SEPServer event catalogue ~68-MeV solar proton events observed at 1 AU in 1996–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodríguez-Gasén Rosa

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available SEPServer is a three-year collaborative project funded by the seventh framework programme (FP7-SPACE of the European Union. The objective of the project is to provide access to state-of-the-art observations and analysis tools for the scientific community on solar energetic particle (SEP events and related electromagnetic (EM emissions. The project will eventually lead to better understanding of the particle acceleration and transport processes at the Sun and in the inner heliosphere. These processes lead to SEP events that form one of the key elements of space weather. In this paper we present the first results from the systematic analysis work performed on the following datasets: SOHO/ERNE, SOHO/EPHIN, ACE/EPAM, Wind/WAVES and GOES X-rays. A catalogue of SEP events at 1 AU, with complete coverage over solar cycle 23, based on high-energy (~68-MeV protons from SOHO/ERNE and electron recordings of the events by SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM are presented. A total of 115 energetic particle events have been identified and analysed using velocity dispersion analysis (VDA for protons and time-shifting analysis (TSA for electrons and protons in order to infer the SEP release times at the Sun. EM observations during the times of the SEP event onset have been gathered and compared to the release time estimates of particles. Data from those events that occurred during the European day-time, i.e., those that also have observations from ground-based observatories included in SEPServer, are listed and a preliminary analysis of their associations is presented. We find that VDA results for protons can be a useful tool for the analysis of proton release times, but if the derived proton path length is out of a range of 1 AU < s ≲ 3 AU, the result of the analysis may be compromised, as indicated by the anti-correlation of the derived path length and release time delay from the associated X-ray flare. The average path length derived from VDA is about 1.9 times

  12. Multi-wavelength Observations of Two Explosive Events and Their Effects on the Solar Atmosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustinus G. Admiranto

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We investigated two flares in the solar atmosphere that occurred on June 3, 2012 and July 6, 2012 and caused propagation of Moreton and EIT waves. In the June 3 event, we noticed a filament winking which presumably was caused by the wave propagation from the flare. An interesting feature of this event is that there was a reflection of this wave by a coronal hole located alongside the wave propagation, but not all of this wave was transmitted by the coronal hole. Using the running difference method, we calculated the speed of Moreton and EIT waves and we found values of 926 km/s before the reflection and 276 km/s after the reflection (Moreton wave and 1,127 km/s before the reflection and 46 km/s after the reflection (EIT wave. In the July 6 event, this phenomenon was accompanied by type II and type III solar radio bursts, and we also performed a running difference analysis to find the speed of the Moreton wave, obtaining a value of 988 km/s. The speed derived from the analysis of the solar radio burst was 1,200 km/s, and we assume that this difference was caused by the different nature of the motions in these phenomena, where the solar radio burst was caused by the propagating particles, not waves.

  13. Simultaneous measurements from the Millstone Hill radar and the Active satellite during the SAID/SAR arc event of the March 1990 CEDAR storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Förster

    Full Text Available During a nearby passage of the Active satellite above the Millstone Hill radar on 21 March 1990 at local sunset, the satellite and the radar performed simultaneous measurements of upper ionospheric parameters in nearly the same spatial volume. For this purpose the radar carried out a special azimuth-elevation scan to track the satellite. Direct comparisons of radar data and in situ satellite measurements have been carried out quite rarely. In this case, the coincidence of co-ordinated measurements and active ionospheric-magnetospheric processes during an extended storm recovery phase presents a unique occasion resulting in a very valuable data set. The measurements show generally good agreement both during quiet prestorm and storm conditions and the combination of radar and satellite observations gives a more comprehensive picture of the physical processes involved. We find a close relationship between the rapid westward ion drift peak at subauroral latitudes (SAID event and the occurrence of a stable auroral red (SAR arc observed after sunset by an all-sky imager and reported in an earlier study of this event. The SAID electric field is caused by the penetration of energetic ions with energies between about 1 keV and 100 keV into the outer plasmasphere to a latitude equatorward of the extent of the plasmasheet electrons. Charge separation results in the observed polarisation field and the SAID. Unusually high molecular ion densities measured by the satellite at altitudes of 700-870 km at subauroral and auroral latitudes point on strong upward-directed ion acceleration processes and an intense neutral gas upwelling. These structures are collocated with a narrow trough in electron density and an electron temperature peak as observed simultaneously by the radar and the satellite probes.

    Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-magnetosphere interactions; plasma temperature and density; Magnetospheric physics (plasmasphere.

  14. Properties of solar proton events at large heliocentric distances near ecliptic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khiber, B.; Struminskij, A.B.

    2005-01-01

    The absolute intensities, fluences and propagation times of the solar protons with the energy of 38-125 MeV, obtained on the basis of the observation data of the Kilskij electron telescope (KET ULYSSES) onboard the ULYSSES cosmic apparatus and GOES proton detector, are compared. The observation data on the solar cosmic rays at the heliocentric distances above 5 a.e. are analyzed for the first time. Certain characteristics of the proton events under consideration and their possible parent flares are presented [ru

  15. ONSETS AND SPECTRA OF IMPULSIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC ELECTRON EVENTS OBSERVED NEAR THE EARTH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kontar, Eduard P.; Reid, Hamish A. S.

    2009-01-01

    Impulsive solar energetic electrons are often observed in the interplanetary space near the Earth and have an attractive diagnostic potential for poorly understood solar flare acceleration processes. We investigate the transport of solar flare energetic electrons in the heliospheric plasma to understand the role of transport to the observed onset and spectral properties of the impulsive solar electron events. The propagation of energetic electrons in solar wind plasma is simulated from the acceleration region at the Sun to the Earth, taking into account self-consistent generation and absorption of electrostatic electron plasma (Langmuir) waves, effects of nonuniform plasma, collisions, and Landau damping. The simulations suggest that the beam-driven plasma turbulence and the effects of solar wind density inhomogeneity play a crucial role and lead to the appearance of (1) a spectral break for a single power-law injected electron spectrum, with the spectrum flatter below the break, (2) apparent early onset of low-energy electron injection, and (3) the apparent late maximum of low-energy electron injection. We show that the observed onsets, spectral flattening at low energies, and formation of a break energy at tens of keV is the direct manifestation of wave-particle interactions in nonuniform plasma of a single accelerated electron population with an initial power-law spectrum.

  16. The impact of occurrence of exceptional solar events on mortality from diseases of the nervous system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podolska, Katerina

    2015-04-01

    The aim of this conference paper is to analyse relationships between strong changes of solar, geomagnetic and ionospheric physical parameters, and mortality by medical cause of death from diagnosis group Diseases of the nervous system by ICD-10 WHO. The aggregated daily number of deaths of 6 largest individual causes of death of group VI. Diseases of the nervous system on the occurrence of exceptional solar and geomagnetic events is investigated. Analysis is performed for the period of the solar cycles No. 23 and 24 (years 1994-2013) in the Czech Republic. The correlation between the intensity of mortality from diseases Multiple sclerosis, Epilepsy, Cerebral palsy, Parkinson disease, Secondary parkinsonism and Alzheimer disease and the solar, geomagnetic and ionospheric physical parameters is examined using stochastic method of graphical models of conditional dependences. We study the daily number of deaths separately for both sexes at the age groups under 39 and 40+. Differences are found for maximum solar activity and during the ascending and descending epoch of the solar cycles.

  17. Observations and Interpretations of Energetic Neutral Hydrogen Atoms from the December 5, 2006 Solar Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mewaldt, R. A.; Leske, R. A.; Shih, A. Y.; Stone, E. C.; Barghouty, A. f.; Cohen, C. M. S.; Cummings, A. c.; Labrador, A. W.; vonRosenvinge, T. T.

    2009-01-01

    We discuss recently reported observations of energetic neutral hydrogen atoms (ENAs) from an X9 solar flare/coronal mass ejection event on 5 December 2006, located at E79. The observations were made by the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on STEREO A and B. Prior to the arrival of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth, both LETs observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV energetic neutral hydrogen atoms produced by either flare or shock-accelerated protons. RHESSI measurements of the 2.2-MeV gamma-ray line provide an estimate of the number of interacting flare-accelerated protons in this event, which leads to an improved estimate of ENA production by flare-accelerated protons. Taking into account ENA losses, we find that the observed ENAs must have been produced in the high corona at heliocentric distances > or equal to 2 solar radii. Although there are no CME images from this event, it is shown that CME-shock-accelerated protons can, in principle, produce a time-history consistent with the observations.

  18. Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008 and Xynthia (2010 storm events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. André

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available There are a number of methodological issues involved in assessing damage caused by natural hazards. The first is the lack of data, due to the rarity of events and the widely different circumstances in which they occur. Thus, historical data, albeit scarce, should not be neglected when seeking to build ex-ante risk management models. This article analyses the input of insurance data for two recent severe coastal storm events, to examine what causal relationships may exist between hazard characteristics and the level of damage incurred by residential buildings. To do so, data was collected at two levels: from lists of about 4000 damage records, 358 loss adjustment reports were consulted, constituting a detailed damage database. The results show that for flooded residential buildings, over 75% of reconstruction costs are associated with interior elements, with damage to structural components remaining very localised and negligible. Further analysis revealed a high scatter between costs and water depth, suggesting that uncertainty remains high in drawing up damage functions with insurance data alone. Due to the paper format of the loss adjustment reports, and the lack of harmonisation between their contents, the collection stage called for a considerable amount of work. For future events, establishing a standardised process for archiving damage information could significantly contribute to the production of such empirical damage functions. Nevertheless, complementary sources of data on hazards and asset vulnerability parameters will definitely still be necessary for damage modelling; multivariate approaches, crossing insurance data with external material, should also be investigated more deeply.

  19. Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008) and Xynthia (2010) storm events

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, C.; Monfort, D.; Bouzit, M.; Vinchon, C.

    2013-08-01

    There are a number of methodological issues involved in assessing damage caused by natural hazards. The first is the lack of data, due to the rarity of events and the widely different circumstances in which they occur. Thus, historical data, albeit scarce, should not be neglected when seeking to build ex-ante risk management models. This article analyses the input of insurance data for two recent severe coastal storm events, to examine what causal relationships may exist between hazard characteristics and the level of damage incurred by residential buildings. To do so, data was collected at two levels: from lists of about 4000 damage records, 358 loss adjustment reports were consulted, constituting a detailed damage database. The results show that for flooded residential buildings, over 75% of reconstruction costs are associated with interior elements, with damage to structural components remaining very localised and negligible. Further analysis revealed a high scatter between costs and water depth, suggesting that uncertainty remains high in drawing up damage functions with insurance data alone. Due to the paper format of the loss adjustment reports, and the lack of harmonisation between their contents, the collection stage called for a considerable amount of work. For future events, establishing a standardised process for archiving damage information could significantly contribute to the production of such empirical damage functions. Nevertheless, complementary sources of data on hazards and asset vulnerability parameters will definitely still be necessary for damage modelling; multivariate approaches, crossing insurance data with external material, should also be investigated more deeply.

  20. Temporal and spatial variations in sand and dust storm events in East Asia from 2007 to 2016: Relationships with surface conditions and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Linchang; Che, Huizheng; Xue, Min; Zhang, Tianhang; Wang, Hong; Wang, Yaqiang; Zhou, Chunhong; Zhao, Hujia; Gui, Ke; Zheng, Yu; Sun, Tianze; Liang, Yuanxin; Sun, Enwei; Zhang, Hengde; Zhang, Xiaoye

    2018-08-15

    We analyzed the frequency and intensity of sand and dust storms (SDSs) in East Asia from 2007 to 2016 using observational data from ground stations, numerical modeling, and vegetation indices obtained from both satellite and reanalysis data. The relationships of SDSs with surface conditions and the synoptic circulation pattern were also analyzed. The statistical analyses demonstrated that the number and intensity of SDS events recorded in spring during 2007 to 2016 showed a decreasing trend. The total number of spring SDSs decreased from at least ten events per year before 2011 to less than ten events per year after 2011. The overall average annual variation of the surface dust concentration in the main dust source regions decreased 33.24μg/m 3 (-1.75%) annually. The variation in the temperatures near and below the ground surface and the amount of precipitation and soil moisture all favored an improvement in vegetation coverage, which reduced the intensity and frequency of SDSs. The strong winds accompanying the influx of cold air from high latitudes showed a decreasing trend, leading to a decrease in the number of SDSs and playing a key role in the decadal decrease of SDSs. The decrease in the intensity of the polar vortex during study period was closely related to the decrease in the intensity and frequency of SDSs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Onset of frequent dust storms in northern China at ~AD 1100.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yuxin; Zhao, Cheng; Song, Mu; Liu, Weiguo; Chen, Fahu; Zhang, Dian; Liu, Zhonghui

    2015-11-26

    Dust storms in northern China strongly affect the living and health of people there and the dusts could travel a full circle of the globe in a short time. Historically, more frequent dust storms occurred during cool periods, particularly the Little Ice Age (LIA), generally attributed to the strengthened Siberian High. However, limited by chronological uncertainties in proxy records, this mechanism may not fully reveal the causes of dust storm frequency changes. Here we present a late Holocene dust record from the Qaidam Basin, where hydrological changes were previously reconstructed, and examine dust records from northern China, including the ones from historical documents. The records, being broadly consistent, indicate the onset of frequent dust storms at ~AD 1100. Further, peaked dust storm events occurred at episodes of high total solar irradiance or warm-dry conditions in source regions, superimposed on the high background of frequent dust storms within the cool LIA period. We thus suggest that besides strong wind activities, the centennial-scale dust storm events over the last 1000 years appear to be linked to the increased availability of dust source. With the anticipated global warming and deteriorating vegetation coverage, frequent occurrence of dust storms in northern China would be expected to persist.

  2. Relative outflow enhancements during major geomagnetic storms – Cluster observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schillings

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The rate of ion outflow from the polar ionosphere is known to vary by orders of magnitude, depending on the geomagnetic activity. However, the upper limit of the outflow rate during the largest geomagnetic storms is not well constrained due to poor spatial coverage during storm events. In this paper, we analyse six major geomagnetic storms between 2001 and 2004 using Cluster data. The six major storms fulfil the criteria of Dst  < −100 nT or Kp  > 7+. Since the shape of the magnetospheric regions (plasma mantle, lobe and inner magnetosphere are distorted during large magnetic storms, we use both plasma beta (β and ion characteristics to define a spatial box where the upward O+ flux scaled to an ionospheric reference altitude for the extreme event is observed. The relative enhancement of the scaled outflow in the spatial boxes as compared to the data from the full year when the storm occurred is estimated. Only O+ data were used because H+ may have a solar wind origin. The storm time data for most cases showed up as a clearly distinguishable separate peak in the distribution toward the largest fluxes observed. The relative enhancement in the outflow region during storm time is 1 to 2 orders of magnitude higher compared to less disturbed time. The largest relative scaled outflow enhancement is 83 (7 November 2004 and the highest scaled O+ outflow observed is 2  ×  1014 m−2 s−1 (29 October 2003.

  3. The Longitudinal Properties of a Solar Energetic Particle Event Investigated Using Modern Solar Imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-10

    and white light) and the longitudinal extent of the SEP event in the heliosphere. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION...The STEREO SECCHI data are pro- duced by a consortium of RAL (UK), NRL (USA), LMSAL (USA), GSFC (USA), MPS (Germany), CSL (Belgium), IOTA (France

  4. Time distributions of solar energetic particle events: Are SEPEs really random?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiggens, P. T. A.; Gabriel, S. B.

    2009-10-01

    Solar energetic particle events (SEPEs) can exhibit flux increases of several orders of magnitude over background levels and have always been considered to be random in nature in statistical models with no dependence of any one event on the occurrence of previous events. We examine whether this assumption of randomness in time is correct. Engineering modeling of SEPEs is important to enable reliable and efficient design of both Earth-orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft and future manned missions to Mars and the Moon. All existing engineering models assume that the frequency of SEPEs follows a Poisson process. We present analysis of the event waiting times using alternative distributions described by Lévy and time-dependent Poisson processes and compared these with the usual Poisson distribution. The results show significant deviation from a Poisson process and indicate that the underlying physical processes might be more closely related to a Lévy-type process, suggesting that there is some inherent “memory” in the system. Inherent Poisson assumptions of stationarity and event independence are investigated, and it appears that they do not hold and can be dependent upon the event definition used. SEPEs appear to have some memory indicating that events are not completely random with activity levels varying even during solar active periods and are characterized by clusters of events. This could have significant ramifications for engineering models of the SEP environment, and it is recommended that current statistical engineering models of the SEP environment should be modified to incorporate long-term event dependency and short-term system memory.

  5. LARGE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH FILAMENT ERUPTIONS OUTSIDE ACTIVE REGIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Mäkelä, P.; Akiyama, S.; Yashiro, S.; Xie, H.; Thakur, N. [Solar Physics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Kahler, S. W., E-mail: nat.gopalswamy@nasa.gov [Air Force Research Laboratory, Albuquerque, NM 87117 (United States)

    2015-06-10

    We report on four large filament eruptions (FEs) from solar cycles 23 and 24 that were associated with large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and interplanetary type II radio bursts. The post-eruption arcades corresponded mostly to C-class soft X-ray enhancements, but an M1.0 flare was associated with one event. However, the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were fast (speeds ∼ 1000 km s{sup −1}) and appeared as halo CMEs in the coronagraph field of view. The interplanetary type II radio bursts occurred over a wide wavelength range, indicating the existence of strong shocks throughout the inner heliosphere. No metric type II bursts were present in three events, indicating that the shocks formed beyond 2–3 Rs. In one case, there was a metric type II burst with low starting frequency, indicating a shock formation height of ∼2 Rs. The FE-associated SEP events did have softer spectra (spectral index >4) in the 10–100 MeV range, but there were other low-intensity SEP events with spectral indices ≥4. Some of these events are likely FE-SEP events, but were not classified as such in the literature because they occurred close to active regions. Some were definitely associated with large active region flares, but the shock formation height was large. We definitely find a diminished role for flares and complex type III burst durations in these large SEP events. Fast CMEs and shock formation at larger distances from the Sun seem to be the primary characteristics of the FE-associated SEP events.

  6. Extreme fluxes in solar energetic particle events: Methodological and physical limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miroshnichenko, L.I.; Nymmik, R.A.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, all available data on the largest solar proton events (SPEs), or extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events, for the period from 1561 up to now are analyzed. Under consideration are the observational, methodological and physical problems of energy-spectrum presentation for SEP fluxes (fluences) near the Earth's orbit. Special attention is paid to the study of the distribution function for extreme fluences of SEPs by their sizes. The authors present advances in at least three aspects: 1) a form of the distribution function that was previously obtained from the data for three cycles of solar activity has been completely confirmed by the data for 41 solar cycles; 2) early estimates of extremely large fluences in the past have been critically revised, and their values were found to be overestimated; and 3) extremely large SEP fluxes are shown to obey a probabilistic distribution, so the concept of an “upper limit flux” does not carry any strict physical sense although it serves as an important empirical restriction. SEP fluxes may only be characterized by the relative probabilities of their appearance, and there is a sharp break in the spectrum in the range of large fluences (or low probabilities). It is emphasized that modern observational data and methods of investigation do not allow, for the present, the precise resolution of the problem of the spectrum break or the estimation of the maximum potentialities of solar accelerator(s). This limitation considerably restricts the extrapolation of the obtained results to the past and future for application to the epochs with different levels of solar activity. - Highlights: • All available data on the largest solar proton events (SPEs) are analyzed. • Distribution function obtained for 3 last cycles is confirmed for 41 solar cycles. • Estimates of extremely large fluences in the past are found to be overestimated. • Extremely large SEP fluxes are shown to obey a probabilistic distribution.

  7. Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podladchikova, Tatiana; Petrukovich, Anatoly; Yermolaev, Yuri

    2018-04-01

    Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011-2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.

  8. DROPOUT OF DIRECTIONAL ELECTRON INTENSITIES IN LARGE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tan, Lun C. [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Reames, Donald V., E-mail: ltan@umd.edu [Institute for Physical Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

    2016-01-10

    In the “gradual” solar energetic particle (SEP) event during solar cycle 23 we have observed the dispersionless modulation (“dropout”) in directional intensities of nonrelativistic electrons. The average duration of dropout periods is ∼0.8 hr, which is consistent with the correlation scale of solar wind turbulence. During the dropout period electrons could display scatter-free transport in an intermittent way. Also, we have observed a decrease in the anisotropic index of incident electrons with increasing electron energy (E{sub e}), while the index of scattered/reflected electrons is nearly independent of E{sub e}. We hence perform an observational examination of the correlation between the anisotropic index of low-energy scattered/reflected electrons and the signature of the locally measured solar wind turbulence in the dissipation range, which is responsible for resonant scattering of nonrelativistic electrons. Since during the dropout period the slab turbulence fraction is dominant (0.8 ± 0.1), we pay close attention to the effect of slab fraction on the correlation examined. Our observation is consistent with the simulation result that in the dominance of the slab turbulence component there should exist a dispatched structure of magnetic flux tubes, along which electrons could be transported in a scatter-free manner. Since a similar phenomenon is exhibited in the “impulsive” SEP event, electron dropout should be a transport effect. Therefore, being different from most ion dropout events, which are due to a compact flare source, the dropout of directional electron intensities should be caused by the change of turbulence status in the solar wind.

  9. DROPOUT OF DIRECTIONAL ELECTRON INTENSITIES IN LARGE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Lun C.; Reames, Donald V.

    2016-01-01

    In the “gradual” solar energetic particle (SEP) event during solar cycle 23 we have observed the dispersionless modulation (“dropout”) in directional intensities of nonrelativistic electrons. The average duration of dropout periods is ∼0.8 hr, which is consistent with the correlation scale of solar wind turbulence. During the dropout period electrons could display scatter-free transport in an intermittent way. Also, we have observed a decrease in the anisotropic index of incident electrons with increasing electron energy (E e ), while the index of scattered/reflected electrons is nearly independent of E e . We hence perform an observational examination of the correlation between the anisotropic index of low-energy scattered/reflected electrons and the signature of the locally measured solar wind turbulence in the dissipation range, which is responsible for resonant scattering of nonrelativistic electrons. Since during the dropout period the slab turbulence fraction is dominant (0.8 ± 0.1), we pay close attention to the effect of slab fraction on the correlation examined. Our observation is consistent with the simulation result that in the dominance of the slab turbulence component there should exist a dispatched structure of magnetic flux tubes, along which electrons could be transported in a scatter-free manner. Since a similar phenomenon is exhibited in the “impulsive” SEP event, electron dropout should be a transport effect. Therefore, being different from most ion dropout events, which are due to a compact flare source, the dropout of directional electron intensities should be caused by the change of turbulence status in the solar wind

  10. Midlatitude ionospheric changes to four great geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 23 in Southern and Northern Hemispheres

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matamba, T. M.; Habarulema, J. B.; Burešová, Dalia

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 12 (2016), s. 1155-1171 ISSN 1542-7390 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/12/2440 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : total electron-content * traveling atmospheric disturbances * November 2004 superstorms * magnetic storm s * interplanetary origins * equatorial ionosphere * neutral composition * physical-mechanism * middle latitudes * content response Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.581, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016SW001516/abstract

  11. Investigating the Origins of Two Extreme Solar Particle Events: Proton Source Profile and Associated Electromagnetic Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kocharov, Leon; Usoskin, Ilya [Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory/Oulu Unit, University of Oulu, P.O.B. 3000, Oulu FI-90014 (Finland); Pohjolainen, Silja [Tuorla Observatory, University of Turku, Piikkiö FI-21500 (Finland); Mishev, Alexander [Space Climate Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu FI-90014 (Finland); Reiner, Mike J. [The Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, and NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Lee, Jeongwoo [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-747 (Korea, Republic of); Laitinen, Timo [Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, University of Central Lancashire, Preston PR1 2HE (United Kingdom); Didkovsky, Leonid V. [University of Southern California Space Sciences Center, 835 Bloom Walk, Los Angeles CA 90089 (United States); Pizzo, Victor J. [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO 80305 (United States); Kim, Roksoon; Cho, Kyung-Suk [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); Klassen, Andreas [Institut für Experimentelle und Angewandte Physik, Christian-Albrechts-Universität, Kiel D-24118 (Germany); Karlicky, Marian [Astronomical Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Fričova 258, Ondřejov 251 65 (Czech Republic); Gary, Dale E. [Center for Solar-Terrestrial Research, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark NJ 07102-1982 (United States); Valtonen, Eino; Vainio, Rami [Space Research Laboratory, University of Turku, Turku FI-20014 (Finland)

    2017-04-20

    We analyze the high-energy particle emission from the Sun in two extreme solar particle events in which protons are accelerated to relativistic energies and can cause a significant signal even in the ground-based particle detectors. Analysis of a relativistic proton event is based on modeling of the particle transport and interaction, from a near-Sun source through the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetosphere and atmosphere to a detector on the ground. This allows us to deduce the time profile of the proton source at the Sun and compare it with observed electromagnetic emissions. The 1998 May 2 event is associated with a flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME), which were well observed by the Nançay Radioheliograph, thus the images of the radio sources are available. For the 2003 November 2 event, the low corona images of the CME liftoff obtained at the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory are available. Those complementary data sets are analyzed jointly with the broadband dynamic radio spectra, EUV images, and other data available for both events. We find a common scenario for both eruptions, including the flare’s dual impulsive phase, the CME-launch-associated decimetric-continuum burst, and the late, low-frequency type III radio bursts at the time of the relativistic proton injection into the interplanetary medium. The analysis supports the idea that the two considered events start with emission of relativistic protons previously accelerated during the flare and CME launch, then trapped in large-scale magnetic loops and later released by the expanding CME.

  12. Radiation dose of aircrews during a solar proton event without ground-level enhancement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Kataoka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A significant enhancement of radiation doses is expected for aircrews during ground-level enhancement (GLE events, while the possible radiation hazard remains an open question during non-GLE solar energetic particle (SEP events. Using a new air-shower simulation driven by the proton flux data obtained from GOES satellites, we show the possibility of significant enhancement of the effective dose rate of up to 4.5 μSv h−1 at a conventional flight altitude of 12 km during the largest SEP event that did not cause a GLE. As a result, a new GOES-driven model is proposed to give an estimate of the contribution from the isotropic component of the radiation dose in the stratosphere during non-GLE SEP events.

  13. Track structure model for damage to mammalian cell cultures during solar proton events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W.; Townsend, L. W.; Shinn, J. L.; Katz, R.

    1992-01-01

    Solar proton events (SPEs) occur infrequently and unpredictably, thus representing a potential hazard to interplanetary space missions. Biological damage from SPEs will be produced principally through secondary electron production in tissue, including important contributions due to delta rays from nuclear reaction products. We review methods for estimating the biological effectiveness of SPEs using a high energy proton model and the parametric cellular track model. Results of the model are presented for several of the historically largest flares using typical levels and body shielding.

  14. FLARE VERSUS SHOCK ACCELERATION OF HIGH-ENERGY PROTONS IN SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cliver, E. W.

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have presented evidence for a significant to dominant role for a flare-resident acceleration process for high-energy protons in large (“gradual”) solar energetic particle (SEP) events, contrary to the more generally held view that such protons are primarily accelerated at shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The new support for this flare-centric view is provided by correlations between the sizes of X-ray and/or microwave bursts and associated SEP events. For one such study that considered >100 MeV proton events, we present evidence based on CME speeds and widths, shock associations, and electron-to-proton ratios that indicates that events omitted from that investigation’s analysis should have been included. Inclusion of these outlying events reverses the study’s qualitative result and supports shock acceleration of >100 MeV protons. Examination of the ratios of 0.5 MeV electron intensities to >100 MeV proton intensities for the Grechnev et al. event sample provides additional support for shock acceleration of high-energy protons. Simply scaling up a classic “impulsive” SEP event to produce a large >100 MeV proton event implies the existence of prompt 0.5 MeV electron events that are approximately two orders of magnitude larger than are observed. While classic “impulsive” SEP events attributed to flares have high electron-to-proton ratios (≳5 × 10 5 ) due to a near absence of >100 MeV protons, large poorly connected (≥W120) gradual SEP events, attributed to widespread shock acceleration, have electron-to-proton ratios of ∼2 × 10 3 , similar to those of comparably sized well-connected (W20–W90) SEP events.

  15. Coronal mass ejections, interplanetary shocks in relation with forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verma, P L; Patel, Nand Kumar; Prajapati, Mateswari

    2014-01-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs} are the most energetic solar events in which large amount of solar plasma materials are ejected from the sun into heliosphere, causing major disturbances in solar wind plasma, Interplanetary shocks, Forbush decrease(Fds) in cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic storms. We have studied Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms observed at Oulu super neutron monitor, during the period of May 1998-Dec 2006 with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), X-ray solar flares and interplanetary shocks. We have found that all the (100%) Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms are associated with halo and partial halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The association rate between halo and partial halo coronal mass ejections are found 96.00%and 04.00% respectively. Most of the Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms (96.29%) are associated with X-ray solar flares of different categories . The association rates for X-Class, M-Class, and C- Class X -ray solar flares are found 34.62%, 50.00% and 15.38% respectively .Further we have concluded that majority of the Forbush decrease associated with intense geomagnetic storms are related to interplanetary shocks (92.30 %) and the related shocks are forward shocks. We have found positive co-relation with co-relation co-efficient .7025 between magnitudes of Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms and speed of associated coronal mass ejections. Positive co-relation with co-relation co-efficient 0.48 has also been found between magnitudes of intense geomagnetic storms and speed of associated coronal mass ejections.

  16. A COMPARISON OF ELEMENTAL ABUNDANCE RATIOS IN SEP EVENTS IN FAST AND SLOW SOLAR WIND REGIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahler, S. W.; Tylka, A. J.; Reames, D. V.

    2009-01-01

    The solar energetic (E > 1 MeV nucleon -1 ) particles (SEPs) observed in gradual events at 1 AU are assumed to be accelerated by coronal/interplanetary shocks from ambient thermal or suprathermal seed particles. If so, then the elemental abundances of SEPs produced in different solar wind (SW) stream types (transient, fast, and slow) might be systematically distinguished from each other. We look for these differences in SEP energy spectra and in elemental abundance ratios (including Mg/Ne and Fe/C, which compare low/high first ionization potential elements), in a large number of SEP time intervals over the past solar cycle. The SW regions are characterized by the three-component stream classification of Richardson et al. Our survey shows no significant compositional or energy spectral differences in the 5-10 MeV nucleon -1 range for SEP events of different SW stream types. This result extends the earlier finding that SEP events are observed frequently in fast SW streams, although their higher Alfven and SW flow speeds should constrain SEP production by coronal mass ejection-driven shocks in those regions. We discuss the implications of our results for shock seed populations and cross-field propagation.

  17. Nitrate Deposition to Surface Snow at Summit, Greenland, Following the 9 November 2000 Solar Proton Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duderstadt, Katharine A.; Dibb, Jack E.; Schwadron, Nathan A.; Spence, Harlan E.; Jackman, Charles Herbert; Randall, Cora E.; Solomon, Stanley C.; Mills, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    This study considers whether spurious peaks in nitrate ions in snow sampled at Summit, Greenland from August 2000 to August 2002 are related to solar proton events. After identifying tropospheric sources of nitrate on the basis of correlations with sulfate, ammonium, sodium, and calcium, we use the three-dimensional global Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to examine unaccounted for nitrate spikes. Model calculations confirm that solar proton events significantly impact HOx, NOx, and O3 levels in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the weeks and months following the major 9 November 2000 solar proton event. However, SPE-enhanced NOy calculated within the atmospheric column is too small to account for the observed nitrate ion peaks in surface snow. Instead, our WACCM results suggest that nitrate spikes not readily accounted for by measurement correlations are likely of anthropogenic origin. These results, consistent with other recent studies, imply that nitrate spikes in ice cores are not suitable proxies for individual SPEs and motivate the need to identify alternative proxies.

  18. Deep Space Storm Shelter Simulation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, Kathryn; Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Cerro, Jeffrey; Simon, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    Missions outside of Earth's magnetic field are impeded by the presence of radiation from galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events. To overcome this issue, NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Radiation Works Storm Shelter (RadWorks) has been studying different radiation protective habitats to shield against the onset of solar particle event radiation. These habitats have the capability of protecting occupants by utilizing available materials such as food, water, brine, human waste, trash, and non-consumables to build short-term shelters. Protection comes from building a barrier with the materials that dampens the impact of the radiation on astronauts. The goal of this study is to develop a discrete event simulation, modeling a solar particle event and the building of a protective shelter. The main hallway location within a larger habitat similar to the International Space Station (ISS) is analyzed. The outputs from this model are: 1) the total area covered on the shelter by the different materials, 2) the amount of radiation the crew members receive, and 3) the amount of time for setting up the habitat during specific points in a mission given an event occurs.

  19. Coronal mass ejections, type II radio bursts, and solar energetic particle events in the SOHO era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Gopalswamy

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Using the extensive and uniform data on coronal mass ejections (CMEs, solar energetic particle (SEP events, and type II radio bursts during the SOHO era, we discuss how the CME properties such as speed, width and solar-source longitude decide whether CMEs are associated with type II radio bursts and SEP events. We discuss why some radio-quiet CMEs are associated with small SEP events while some radio-loud CMEs are not associated with SEP events. We conclude that either some fast and wide CMEs do not drive shocks or they drive weak shocks that do not produce significant levels of particle acceleration. We also infer that the Alfvén speed in the corona and near-Sun interplanetary medium ranges from <200 km/s to ~1600 km/s. Radio-quiet fast and wide CMEs are also poor SEP producers and the association rate of type II bursts and SEP events steadily increases with CME speed and width (i.e. energy. If we consider western hemispheric CMEs, the SEP association rate increases linearly from ~30% for 800 km/s CMEs to 100% for ≥1800 km/s. Essentially all type II bursts in the decametre-hectometric (DH wavelength range are associated with SEP events once the source location on the Sun is taken into account. This is a significant result for space weather applications, because if a CME originating from the western hemisphere is accompanied by a DH type II burst, there is a high probability that it will produce an SEP event.

  20. Geomagnetic storm effects on GPS based navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. V. S. Rama Rao

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The energetic events on the sun, solar wind and subsequent effects on the Earth's geomagnetic field and upper atmosphere (ionosphere comprise space weather. Modern navigation systems that use radio-wave signals, reflecting from or propagating through the ionosphere as a means of determining range or distance, are vulnerable to a variety of effects that can degrade the performance of the navigational systems. In particular, the Global Positioning System (GPS that uses a constellation of earth orbiting satellites are affected due to the space weather phenomena.

    Studies made during two successive geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period from 8 to 12 November 2004, have clearly revealed the adverse affects on the GPS range delay as inferred from the Total Electron Content (TEC measurements made from a chain of seven dual frequency GPS receivers installed in the Indian sector. Significant increases in TEC at the Equatorial Ionization anomaly crest region are observed, resulting in increased range delay during the periods of the storm activity. Further, the storm time rapid changes occurring in TEC resulted in a number of phase slips in the GPS signal compared to those on quiet days. These phase slips often result in the loss of lock of the GPS receivers, similar to those that occur during strong(>10 dB L-band scintillation events, adversely affecting the GPS based navigation.

  1. Onsets of Solar Proton Events in Satellite and Ground Level Observations: A Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jing; Rodriguez, Juan V.

    2018-03-01

    The early detection of solar proton event onsets is essential for protecting humans and electronics in space, as well as passengers and crew at aviation altitudes. Two commonly compared methods for observing solar proton events that are sufficiently large and energetic to be detected on the ground through the creation of secondary radiation—known as ground level enhancements (GLEs)—are (1) a network of ground-based neutron monitors (NMs) and (2) satellite-based particle detectors. Until recently, owing to the different time resolution of the two data sets, it has not been feasible to compare these two types of observations using the same detection algorithm. This paper presents a comparison between the two observational platforms using newly processed >100 MeV 1 min count rates and fluxes from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 8-12 satellites, and 1 min count rates from the Neutron Monitor Database. We applied the same detection algorithm to each data set (tuned to the different background noise levels of the instrument types). Seventeen SPEs with GLEs were studied: GLEs 55-70 from Solar Cycle 23 and GLE 71 from Solar Cycle 24. The median difference in the event detection times by GOES and NM data is 0 min, indicating no innate benefit in time of either system. The 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the onset time differences (GOES minus NMs) are -7.2 min, -1.5 min, 2.5 min, and 4.2 min, respectively. This is in contrast to previous studies in which NM detections led GOES by 8 to 52 min without accounting for different alert protocols.

  2. Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myung-Hee, Y. Kim; Shaowen, Hu; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2009-01-01

    Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons

  3. Association of time of occurrence of electrical heart storms with environmental physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoupel, Eliiyahu; Kusniec, Jairo; Golovchiner, Gregory; Abramson, Evgeny; Kadmon, Udi; Strasberg, Boris

    2014-08-01

    Many publications in recent decades have reported a temporal link between medical events and environmental physical activity. The aim of this study was to analyze the time of occurrence of electrical heart storms against levels of cosmological parameters. The sample included 82 patients (71 male) with ischemic cardiomyopathy treated with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator at a tertiary medical center in 1999-2012 (5,114 days). The time of occurrence of all electrical heart storms, defined as three or more events of ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation daily, was recorded from the defibrillator devices. Findings were analyzed against data on solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray (neutron) activity for the same time period obtained from space institutions in the United States and Russia. Electrical storms occurred in all months of the year, with a slight decrease in July, August, and September. Most events took place on days with lower-than-average levels of solar and geomagnetic activity and higher-than-average levels of cosmic ray (neutron) activity. There was a significant difference in mean daily cosmic ray activity between the whole observation period and the days of electrical storm activity (P = 0.0001). These data extend earlier findings on the association of the timing of cardiac events and space weather parameters to the most dangerous form of cardiac arrhythmia-electric storms. Further studies are needed to delineate the pathogenetic mechanism underlying this association. ©2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. A link between solar events and congenital malformations: Is ionizing radiation enough to explain it?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overholt, Andrew C.; Melott, Adrian L.; Atri, Dimitra

    2015-03-01

    Cosmic rays are known to cause biological effects directly and through ionizing radiation produced by their secondaries. These effects have been detected in airline crews and other specific cases where members of the population are exposed to above average secondary fluxes. Recent work has found a correlation between solar particle events and congenital malformations. In this work we use the results of computational simulations to approximate the ionizing radiation from such events as well as longer-term increases in cosmic ray flux. We find that the amounts of ionizing radiation produced by these events are insufficient to produce congenital malformations under the current paradigm regarding muon ionizing radiation. We believe that further work is needed to determine the correct ionizing radiation contribution of cosmogenic muons. We suggest that more extensive measurements of muon radiation effects may show a larger contribution to ionizing radiation dose than currently assumed.

  5. High Fidelity Measurement of Free Space Solar Particle Event and Galactic Cosmic Ray Environments at Intermediate Energies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitgab, M.

    2018-02-01

    A charged particle measurement experiment mounted externally to the Deep Space Gateway is proposed, contributing to improving astronaut radiation exposure management during Solar Particle Events and Extra Vehicular Activities.

  6. Spatial interpolation of precipitation in a dense gauge network for monsoon storm events in the southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Matthew; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Goodrich, David C.

    2008-05-01

    Inaccuracy in spatially distributed precipitation fields can contribute significantly to the uncertainty of hydrological states and fluxes estimated from land surface models. This paper examines the results of selected interpolation methods for both convective and mixed/stratiform events that occurred during the North American monsoon season over a dense gauge network at the U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in the southwestern United States. The spatial coefficient of variation for the precipitation field is employed as an indicator of event morphology, and a gauge clustering factor CF is formulated as a new, scale-independent measure of network organization. We consider that CF 0 (clustering in the gauge network) will produce errors because of reduced areal representation of the precipitation field. Spatial interpolation is performed using both inverse-distance-weighted (IDW) and multiquadric-biharmonic (MQB) methods. We employ ensembles of randomly selected network subsets for the statistical evaluation of interpolation errors in comparison with the observed precipitation. The magnitude of interpolation errors and differences in accuracy between interpolation methods depend on both the density and the geometrical organization of the gauge network. Generally, MQB methods outperform IDW methods in terms of interpolation accuracy under all conditions, but it is found that the order of the IDW method is important to the results and may, under some conditions, be just as accurate as the MQB method. In almost all results it is demonstrated that the inverse-distance-squared method for spatial interpolation, commonly employed in operational analyses and for engineering assessments, is inferior to the ID-cubed method, which is also more computationally efficient than the MQB method in studies of large networks.

  7. A Challenging Solar Eruptive Event of 18 November 2003 and the Causes of the 20 November Geomagnetic Superstorm. I. Unusual History of an Eruptive Filament

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grechnev, V. V.; Uralov, A. M.; Slemzin, V. A.; Chertok, I. M.; Filippov, B. P.; Rudenko, G. V.; Temmer, M.

    2014-01-01

    This is the first of four companion papers, which comprehensively analyze a complex eruptive event of 18 November 2003 in active region (AR) 10501 and the causes of the largest Solar Cycle 23 geomagnetic storm on 20 November 2003. Analysis of a complete data set, not considered before, reveals a chain of eruptions to which hard X-ray and microwave bursts responded. A filament in AR 10501 was not a passive part of a larger flux rope, as usually considered. The filament erupted and gave origin to a coronal mass ejection (CME). The chain of events was as follows: i) a presumable eruption at 07:29 UT accompanied by a not reported M1.2 class flare probably associated with the onset of a first southeastern CME (CME1), which most likely is not responsible for the superstorm; ii) a confined eruption (without a CME) at 07:41 UT (M3.2 flare) that destabilized the large filament; iii) the filament acceleration around 07:56 UT; iv) the bifurcation of the eruptive filament that transformed into a large "cloud"; v) an M3.9 flare in AR 10501 associated to this transformation. The transformation of the filament could be due to the interaction of the eruptive filament with the magnetic field in the neighborhood of a null point, located at a height of about 100 Mm above the complex formed by ARs 10501, 10503, and their environment. The CORONAS-F/SPIRIT telescope observed the cloud in 304 Å as a large Y-shaped darkening, which moved from the bifurcation region across the solar disk to the limb. The masses and kinematics of the cloud and the filament were similar. Remnants of the filament were not clearly observed in the second southwestern CME (CME2), previously regarded as a source of the 20 November geomagnetic storm. These facts do not support a simple scenario, in which the interplanetary magnetic cloud is considered as a flux rope formed from a structure initially associated with the pre-eruption filament in AR 10501. Observations suggest a possible additional eruption above

  8. Solar irradiance changes and photobiological effects at earth's surface following astrophysical ionizing radiation events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Brian C; Neale, Patrick J; Snyder, Brock R

    2015-03-01

    Astrophysical ionizing radiation events have been recognized as a potential threat to life on Earth, primarily through depletion of stratospheric ozone and subsequent increase in surface-level solar ultraviolet radiation. Simulations of the atmospheric effects of a variety of events (such as supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and solar proton events) have been previously published, along with estimates of biological damage at Earth's surface. In this work, we employed the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible (TUV) radiative transfer model to expand and improve calculations of surface-level irradiance and biological impacts following an ionizing radiation event. We considered changes in surface-level UVB, UVA, and photosynthetically active radiation (visible light) for clear-sky conditions and fixed aerosol parameter values. We also considered a wide range of biological effects on organisms ranging from humans to phytoplankton. We found that past work overestimated UVB irradiance but that relative estimates for increase in exposure to DNA-damaging radiation are still similar to our improved calculations. We also found that the intensity of biologically damaging radiation varies widely with organism and specific impact considered; these results have implications for biosphere-level damage following astrophysical ionizing radiation events. When considering changes in surface-level visible light irradiance, we found that, contrary to previous assumptions, a decrease in irradiance is only present for a short time in very limited geographical areas; instead we found a net increase for most of the modeled time-space region. This result has implications for proposed climate changes associated with ionizing radiation events.

  9. A comparison of solar energetic particle event timescales with properties of associated coronal mass ejections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahler, S. W.

    2013-01-01

    The dependence of solar energetic proton (SEP) event peak intensities Ip on properties of associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has been extensively examined, but the dependence of SEP event timescales is not well known. We define three timescales of 20 MeV SEP events and ask how they are related to speeds v CME or widths W of their associated CMEs observed by LASCO/SOHO. The timescales of the EPACT/Wind 20 MeV events are TO, the onset time from CME launch to SEP onset; TR, the rise time from onset to half the peak intensity (0.5Ip); and TD, the duration of the SEP intensity above 0.5Ip. This is a statistical study based on 217 SEP-CME events observed during 1996-2008. The large number of SEP events allows us to examine the SEP-CME relationship in five solar-source longitude ranges. In general, we statistically find that TO declines slightly with v CME , and TR and TD increase with both v CME and W. TO is inversely correlated with log Ip, as expected from a particle background effect. We discuss the implications of this result and find that a background-independent parameter TO+TR also increases with v CME and W. The correlations generally fall below the 98% significance level, but there is a significant correlation between v CME and W which renders interpretation of the timescale results uncertain. We suggest that faster (and wider) CMEs drive shocks and accelerate SEPs over longer times to produce the longer TR and TD SEP timescales.

  10. Solar Irradiance Changes And Photobiological Effects At Earth's Surface Following Astrophysical Ionizing Radiation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Brian; Neale, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Astrophysical ionizing radiation events have been recognized as a potential threat to life on Earth for decades. Although there is some direct biological damage on the surface from redistributed radiation several studies have indicated that the greatest long term threat is from ozone depletion and subsequent heightened solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation. It is known that organisms exposed to this irradiation experience harmful effects such as sunburn and even direct damage to DNA, proteins, or other cellular structures. Simulations of the atmospheric effects of a variety of events (such as supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and solar proton events) have been previously published, along with estimates of biological damage at Earth's surface. In the present work, we employed a radiative transfer model to expand and improve calculations of surface-level irradiance and biological impacts following an ionizing radiation event. We considered changes in surface-level UVB, UVA, and photosynthetically active radiation (visible light). Using biological weighting functions we have considered a wide range of effects, including: erythema and skin cancer in humans; inhibition of photosynthesis in the diatom Phaeodactylum sp. and dinoflagellate Prorocentrum micans inhibition of carbon fixation in Antarctic phytoplankton; inhibition of growth of oat (Avena sativa L. cv. Otana) seedlings; and cataracts. We found that past work overestimated UVB irradiance, but that relative estimates for increase in exposure to DNA damaging radiation are still similar to our improved calculations. We also found that the intensity of biologically damaging radiation varies widely with organism and specific impact considered; these results have implications for biosphere-level damage following astrophysical ionizing radiation events. When considering changes in surface-level visible light irradiance, we found that, contrary to previous assumptions, a decrease in irradiance is only present for a short time in

  11. Low-Frequency Type III Bursts and Solar Energetic Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Makela, Pertti

    2010-01-01

    We analyzed the coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, and type 11 radio bursts associated with a set of six low frequency (15 min) normally used to define these bursts. All but one of the type III bursts was not associated with a type 11 burst in the metric or longer wavelength domains. The burst without type 11 burst also lacked a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at energies >25 MeV. The 1-MHz duration of the type III burst (28 min) is near the median value of type III durations found for gradual SEP events and ground level enhancement (GLE) events. Yet, there was no sign of SEP events. On the other hand, two other type III bursts from the same active region had similar duration but accompanied by WAVES type 11 bursts; these bursts were also accompanied by SEP events detected by SOHO/ERNE. The CMEs were of similar speeds and the flares are also of similar size and duration. This study suggests that the type III burst duration may not be a good indicator of an SEP event.

  12. IRI STORM validation over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haralambous, Haris; Vryonides, Photos; Demetrescu, Crişan; Dobrică, Venera; Maris, Georgeta; Ionescu, Diana

    2014-05-01

    The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model includes an empirical Storm-Time Ionospheric Correction Model (STORM) extension to account for storm-time changes of the F layer peak electron density (NmF2) during increased geomagnetic activity. This model extension is driven by past history values of the geomagnetic index ap (The magnetic index applied is the integral of ap over the previous 33 hours with a weighting function deduced from physically based modeling) and it adjusts the quiet-time F layer peak electron density (NmF2) to account for storm-time changes in the ionosphere. In this investigation manually scaled hourly values of NmF2 measured during the main and recovery phases of selected storms for the maximum solar activity period of the current solar cycle are compared with the predicted IRI-2012 NmF2 over European ionospheric stations using the STORM model option. Based on the comparison a subsequent performance evaluation of the STORM option during this period is quantified.

  13. Forecast of solar proton flux profiles for well-connected events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Eun-Young; Moon, Yong-Jae; Park, Jinhye

    2014-12-01

    We have developed a forecast model of solar proton flux profiles (> 10 MeV channel) for well-connected events. Among 136 solar proton events (SPEs) from 1986 to 2006, we select 49 well-connected ones that are all associated with single X-ray flares stronger than M1 class and start to increase within 4 h after their X-ray peak times. These events show rapid increments in proton flux. By comparing several empirical functions, we select a modified Weibull curve function to approximate a SPE flux profile. The parameters (peak flux, rise time, and decay time) of this function are determined by the relationship between X-ray flare parameters (peak flux, impulsive time, and emission measure) and SPE parameters. For 49 well-connected SPEs, the linear correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed proton peak fluxes is 0.65 with the RMS error of 0.55 log10(pfu). In addition, we determine another forecast model based on flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) parameters using 22 SPEs. The used CME parameters are linear speed and angular width. As a result, we find that the linear correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed proton peak fluxes is 0.83 with the RMS error of 0.35 log10(pfu). From the relationship between error of model and CME acceleration, we find that CME acceleration is an important factor for predicting proton flux profiles.

  14. Solar Coronal Events with Extended Hard X-ray and Gamma-ray Emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    A characteristic pattern of solar hard X-ray emission, first identified in SOL1969-03-31 by Frost & Dennis (1971) now has been linked to prolonged high-energy gamma-ray emission detected by the Fermi/LAT experiment, for example in SOL2014-09-01. The distinctive features of these events include flat hard X-ray spectra extending well above 100 keV, a characteristic pattern of time development, low-frequency gyrosynchrotron peaks, CME association, and gamma-rays identifiable with pion decay originating in GeV ions. The identification of these events with otherwise known solar structures nevertheless remains elusive, in spite of the wealth of imagery available from AIA. The quandary is that these events have a clear association with CMEs in the high corona, and yet the gamma-ray production implicates the photosphere itself. The vanishingly small loss cone in the nominal acceleration region makes this extremely difficult. I propose direct inward advection of a part of the SEP particle population, as created on closed field structures, as a possible resolution of this puzzle, and note that this requires retracting magnetic structures on long time scales following the flare itself.

  15. The value of Doppler LiDAR systems to monitor turbulence intensity during storm events in order to enhance aviation safety in Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shu; Nína Petersen, Guðrún; Finger, David C.

    2017-04-01

    Turbulence and wind shear are a major natural hazards for aviation safety in Iceland. The temporal and spatial scale of atmospheric turbulence is very dynamic, requiring an adequate method to detect and monitor turbulence with high resolution. The Doppler Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) system can provide continuous information about the wind field using the Doppler effect form emitted light signals. In this study, we use a Leosphere Windcube 200s LiDAR systems stationed near Reykjavik city Airport and at Keflavik International Airport, Iceland, to evaluate turbulence intensity by estimating eddy dissipation rate (EDR). For this purpose, we retrieved radial wind velocity observations from Velocity Azimuth Display (VAD) scans (360°scans at 15° and 75° elevation angle) to compute EDR. The method was used to monitor and characterize storm events in fall 2016 and the following winter. The preliminary result reveal that the LiDAR observations can detect and quantify atmospheric turbulence with high spatial and temporal resolution. This finding is an important step towards enhanced aviation safety in subpolar climate characterized by sever wind turbulence.

  16. Radar observations of a tornado-spawning storm complex in Southeast Brazil and Meso-Eta forecasts of this extreme event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, Gerhard; Gomes, Jorge Luis; Gomes, Ana Maria

    2014-05-01

    During the early afternoon of 22 September 2013, severe storms, accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, heavy precipitation and intense lightning activity, devastated a region in the southeast State of São Paulo. Several extremely intense storm cells moved at up to 80 km/h east-southeastwards, ahead of a strong cold front approaching through Paraná, which created extremely unstable conditions that led to deep convection and overshooting towers up to 18 km. At least one of theses cells spawned a tornado when it reached the town of Taquarituba. The tornado traversed the town from south-southwest to north-northeast and was responsible for 63 people injured and two fatalities. Based on the damage reported, it was at least an F3 according to the Fujita scale. The objective of the present study is to characterize this severe thunderstorm event, using different types of data, and to evaluate the forecasts provided by the Meso-Eta model centered over Bauru. The pre-frontal and frontal convective cells were tracked throughout their life-time by IPMet's Doppler radars, which cover the western and central regions of the State São Paulo, as well as northern Paraná State. Radar volume scans, generated every 7,5 min, were processed with the TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) Software, yielding the following preliminary results: as the storm complex traversed the Paranapanema River, which forms the border between the two states, the cells intensified drastically and shortly before reaching the town of Taquarituba, that particular cell displayed extremely strong radial shear just above the cloud base (about -20 to +35 m/s), which led to the formation of a deep meso-cyclone, from which the tornado spawned and touched down at around 14:30 LT (LT=UT-3h). Cell properties calculated by TITAN showed a drastic increase of VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid water content) from 13:52 LT (7,9 kg/m2) to a maximum of 61,8 kg/m2 at 14:15 LT. From 14

  17. Empirical STORM-E Model. [I. Theoretical and Observational Basis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Christopher J.; Xu, Xiaojing; Bilitza, Dieter; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Russell, James M., III

    2013-01-01

    Auroral nighttime infrared emission observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite is used to develop an empirical model of geomagnetic storm enhancements to E-region peak electron densities. The empirical model is called STORM-E and will be incorporated into the 2012 release of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). The proxy for characterizing the E-region response to geomagnetic forcing is NO+(v) volume emission rates (VER) derived from the TIMED/SABER 4.3 lm channel limb radiance measurements. The storm-time response of the NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER is sensitive to auroral particle precipitation. A statistical database of storm-time to climatological quiet-time ratios of SABER-observed NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER are fit to widely available geomagnetic indices using the theoretical framework of linear impulse-response theory. The STORM-E model provides a dynamic storm-time correction factor to adjust a known quiescent E-region electron density peak concentration for geomagnetic enhancements due to auroral particle precipitation. Part II of this series describes the explicit development of the empirical storm-time correction factor for E-region peak electron densities, and shows comparisons of E-region electron densities between STORM-E predictions and incoherent scatter radar measurements. In this paper, Part I of the series, the efficacy of using SABER-derived NO+(v) VER as a proxy for the E-region response to solar-geomagnetic disturbances is presented. Furthermore, a detailed description of the algorithms and methodologies used to derive NO+(v) VER from SABER 4.3 lm limb emission measurements is given. Finally, an assessment of key uncertainties in retrieving NO+(v) VER is presented

  18. Do interacting coronal mass ejections play a role in solar energetic particle events?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahler, S. W.; Vourlidas, A.

    2014-01-01

    Gradual solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events are produced in shocks driven by fast and wide coronal mass ejections (CMEs). With a set of western hemisphere 20 MeV SEP events, we test the possibility that SEP peak intensities, Ip, are enhanced by interactions of their associated CMEs with preceding CMEs (preCMEs) launched during the previous 12 hr. Among SEP events with no, 1, or 2 or more (2+) preCMEs, we find enhanced Ip for the groups with preCMEs, but no differences in TO+TR, the time from CME launch to SEP onset and the time from onset to SEP half-peak Ip. Neither the timings of the preCMEs relative to their associated CMEs nor the preCME widths W pre , speeds V pre , or numbers correlate with the SEP Ip values. The 20 MeV Ip of all the preCME groups correlate with the 2 MeV proton background intensities, consistent with a general correlation with possible seed particle populations. Furthermore, the fraction of CMEs with preCMEs also increases with the 2 MeV proton background intensities. This implies that the higher SEP Ip values with preCMEs may not be due primarily to CME interactions, such as the 'twin-CME' scenario, but are explained by a general increase of both background seed particles and more frequent CMEs during times of higher solar activity. This explanation is not supported by our analysis of 2 MeV proton backgrounds in two earlier preCME studies of SEP events, so the relevance of CME interactions for larger SEP event intensities remains unclear.

  19. Solar Energetic Particles Events and Human Exploration: Measurements in a Space Habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narici, L.; Berrilli, F.; Casolino, M.; Del Moro, D.; Forte, R.; Giovannelli, L.; Martucci, M.; Mergè, M.; Picozza, P.; Rizzo, A.; Scardigli, S.; Sparvoli, R.; Zeitlin, C.

    2016-12-01

    Solar activity is the source of Space Weather disturbances. Flares, CME and coronal holes modulate physical conditions of circumterrestrial and interplanetary space and ultimately the fluxes of high-energy ionized particles, i.e., solar energetic particle (SEP) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) background. This ionizing radiation affects spacecrafts and biological systems, therefore it is an important issue for human exploration of space. During a deep space travel (for example the trip to Mars) radiation risk thresholds may well be exceeded by the crew, so mitigation countermeasures must be employed. Solar particle events (SPE) constitute high risks due to their impulsive high rate dose. Forecasting SPE appears to be needed and also specifically tailored to the human exploration needs. Understanding the parameters of the SPE that produce events leading to higher health risks for the astronauts in deep space is therefore a first priority issue. Measurements of SPE effects with active devices in LEO inside the ISS can produce important information for the specific SEP measured, relative to the specific detector location in the ISS (in a human habitat with a shield typical of manned space-crafts). Active detectors can select data from specific geo-magnetic regions along the orbits, allowing geo-magnetic selections that best mimic deep space radiation. We present results from data acquired in 2010 - 2012 by the detector system ALTEA inside the ISS (18 SPEs detected). We compare this data with data from the detector Pamela on a LEO satellite, with the RAD data during the Curiosity Journey to Mars, with GOES data and with several Solar physical parameters. While several features of the radiation modulation are easily understood by the effect of the geomagnetic field, as an example we report a proportionality of the flux in the ISS with the energetic proton flux measured by GOES, some features appear more difficult to interpret. The final goal of this work is to find the

  20. The structure of the big magnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihajlivich, J. Spomenko; Chop, Rudi; Palangio, Paolo

    2010-01-01

    The records of geomagnetic activity during Solar Cycles 22 and 23 (which occurred from 1986 to 2006) indicate several extremely intensive A-class geomagnetic storms. These were storms classified in the category of the Big Magnetic Storms. In a year of maximum solar activity during Solar Cycle 23, or more precisely, during a phase designated as a post-maximum phase in solar activity (PPM - Phase Post maximum), near the autumn equinox, on 29, October 2003, an extremely strong and intensive magnetic storm was recorded. In the first half of November 2004 (7, November 2004) an intensive magnetic storm was recorded (the Class Big Magnetic Storm). The level of geomagnetic field variations which were recorded for the selected Big Magnetic Storms, was ΔD st=350 nT. For the Big Magnetic Storms the indicated three-hour interval indices geomagnetic activity was Kp = 9. This study presents the spectral composition of the Di - variations which were recorded during magnetic storms in October 2003 and November 2004. (Author)

  1. Geosynchronous Relativistic Electron Events Associated with High-Speed Solar Wind Streams in 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungeun Lee

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Recurrent enhancements of relativistic electron events at geosynchronous orbit (GREEs were observed in 2006. These GREE enhancements were associated with high-speed solar wind streams coming from the same coronal hole. For the first six months of 2006, the occurrence of GREEs has 27 day periodicity and the GREEs were enhanced with various flux levels. Several factors have been studied to be related to GREEs: (1 High speed stream, (2 Pc5 ULF wave activity, (3 Southward IMF Bz, (4 substorm occurrence, (5 Whistler mode chorus wave, and (6 Dynamic pressure. In this paper, we have examined the effectiveness about those parameters in selected periods.

  2. ENERGETIC PARTICLE CROSS-FIELD PROPAGATION EARLY IN A SOLAR EVENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laitinen, T.; Dalla, S.; Marsh, M. S. [Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, University of Central Lancashire, PR1 2HE Preston (United Kingdom)

    2013-08-20

    Solar energetic particles (SEPs) have been observed to easily spread across heliographic longitudes, and the mechanisms responsible for this behavior remain unclear. We use full-orbit simulations of a 10 MeV proton beam in a turbulent magnetic field to study to what extent the spread across the mean field can be described as diffusion early in a particle event. We compare the full-orbit code results to solutions of a Fokker-Planck equation including spatial and pitch angle diffusion, and of one including also propagation of the particles along random-walking magnetic field lines. We find that propagation of the particles along meandering field lines is the key process determining their cross-field spread at 1 AU at the beginning of the simulated event. The mean square displacement of the particles an hour after injection is an order of magnitude larger than that given by the diffusion model, indicating that models employing spatial cross-field diffusion cannot be used to describe early evolution of an SEP event. On the other hand, the diffusion of the particles from their initial field lines is negligible during the first 5 hr, which is consistent with the observations of SEP intensity dropouts. We conclude that modeling SEP events must take into account the particle propagation along meandering field lines for the first 20 hr of the event.

  3. Solar Energetic Particle Event Risks for Future Human Missions within the Inner Heliosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Over, S.; Ford, J.

    2017-12-01

    As astronauts travel beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), space weather research will play a key role in determining risks from space radiation. Of interest are the rare, large solar energetic particle (SEP) events that can cause significant medical effects during flight. Historical SEP data were analyzed from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) program covering the time period of 1986 to 2016 for SEP events. The SEP event data were combined with a Monte Carlo approach to develop a risk model to determine maximum expected doses for missions within the inner heliosphere. Presented here are results from risk assessments for proposed Mars transits as compared to a geostationary Earth-bound mission. Overall, the greatest risk was for the return from Mars with a Venus swing-by, due to the additional transit length and decreased distance from the Sun as compared to traditional Hohmann transfers. The overall results do not indicate that the effects of SEP events alone would prohibit these missions based on current radiation limits alone, but the combination of doses from SEP events and galactic cosmic radiation may be significant, and should be considered in all phases of mission design.

  4. ENERGETIC PARTICLE CROSS-FIELD PROPAGATION EARLY IN A SOLAR EVENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laitinen, T.; Dalla, S.; Marsh, M. S.

    2013-01-01

    Solar energetic particles (SEPs) have been observed to easily spread across heliographic longitudes, and the mechanisms responsible for this behavior remain unclear. We use full-orbit simulations of a 10 MeV proton beam in a turbulent magnetic field to study to what extent the spread across the mean field can be described as diffusion early in a particle event. We compare the full-orbit code results to solutions of a Fokker-Planck equation including spatial and pitch angle diffusion, and of one including also propagation of the particles along random-walking magnetic field lines. We find that propagation of the particles along meandering field lines is the key process determining their cross-field spread at 1 AU at the beginning of the simulated event. The mean square displacement of the particles an hour after injection is an order of magnitude larger than that given by the diffusion model, indicating that models employing spatial cross-field diffusion cannot be used to describe early evolution of an SEP event. On the other hand, the diffusion of the particles from their initial field lines is negligible during the first 5 hr, which is consistent with the observations of SEP intensity dropouts. We conclude that modeling SEP events must take into account the particle propagation along meandering field lines for the first 20 hr of the event

  5. Using Remote Sensing and High-Resolution Digital Elevation Models to Identify Potential Erosional Hotspots Along River Channels During High Discharge Storm Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orland, E. D.; Amidon, W. H.

    2017-12-01

    As global warming intensifies, large precipitation events and associated floods are becoming increasingly common. Channel adjustments during floods can occur by both erosion and deposition of sediment, often damaging infrastructure in the process. There is thus a need for predictive models that can help managers identify river reaches that are most prone to adjustment during storms. Because rivers in post-glacial landscapes often flow over a mixture of bedrock and alluvial substrates, the identification of bedrock vs. alluvial channel reaches is an important first step in predicting vulnerability to channel adjustment during flood events, especially because bedrock channels are unlikely to adjust significantly, even during floods. This study develops a semi-automated approach to predicting channel substrate using a high-resolution LiDAR-derived digital elevation model (DEM). The study area is the Middlebury River in Middlebury, VT-a well-studied watershed with a wide variety of channel substrates, including reaches with documented channel adjustments during recent flooding events. Multiple metrics were considered for reference—such as channel width and drainage area—but the study utilized channel slope as a key parameter for identifying morphological variations within the Middlebury River. Using data extracted from the DEM, a power law was fit to selected slope and drainage area values for each branch in order to model idealized slope-drainage area relationships, which were then compared with measured slope-drainage area relationships. Differences in measured slope minus predicted slope (called delta-slope) are shown to help predict river channel substrate. Compared with field observations, higher delta-slope values correlate with more stable, boulder rich channels or bedrock gorges; conversely the lowest delta-slope values correlate with flat, sediment rich alluvial channels. The delta-slope metric thus serves as a reliable first-order predictor of channel

  6. Predicting the occurrence of super-storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Srivastava

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A comparative study of five super-storms (Dst<-300 nT of the current solar cycle after the launch of SoHO, to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of resulting geomagnetic storms, is described. Amongst solar variables, the initial speed of a CME is considered the most reliable predictor of the strength of the associated geomagnetic storm because fast mass ejections are responsible for building up the ram pressure at the Earth's magnetosphere. However, although most of the super-storms studied were associated with high speed CMEs, the Dst index of the resulting geomagnetic storms varied between -300 to -472 nT. The most intense storm of 20 November 2003, (Dst ~ -472 nT had its source in a comparatively smaller active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare while all other super-storms had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. However, this superstorm did not show any associated extraordinary solar and interplanetary characteristics. The study also reveals the challenge in the reliable prediction of the magnitude of a geomagnetic storm from solar and interplanetary variables.

  7. Predicting the occurrence of super-storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Srivastava

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A comparative study of five super-storms (Dst<-300 nT of the current solar cycle after the launch of SoHO, to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of resulting geomagnetic storms, is described. Amongst solar variables, the initial speed of a CME is considered the most reliable predictor of the strength of the associated geomagnetic storm because fast mass ejections are responsible for building up the ram pressure at the Earth's magnetosphere. However, although most of the super-storms studied were associated with high speed CMEs, the Dst index of the resulting geomagnetic storms varied between -300 to -472 nT. The most intense storm of 20 November 2003, (Dst ~ -472 nT had its source in a comparatively smaller active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare while all other super-storms had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. However, this superstorm did not show any associated extraordinary solar and interplanetary characteristics. The study also reveals the challenge in the reliable prediction of the magnitude of a geomagnetic storm from solar and interplanetary variables.

  8. The Effects of Interplanetary Transport in the Event-intergrated Solar Energetic Particle Spectra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Lulu; Zhang, Ming; Rassoul, Hamid K., E-mail: lzhao@fit.edu [Physics and Space Sciences Department, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901 (United States)

    2017-02-10

    Previous investigations on the energy spectra of solar energetic particle (SEP) events revealed that the energy spectra observed at 1 au often show double power laws with break energies from one to tens of MeV/nuc. In order to determine whether the double power-law features result from the SEP source or the interplanetary transport process from the Sun to 1 au, we separately analyze the SEP spectra in the decay phase, during which the transport effect is minimum. In this paper, we reported three events observed by the Interplanetary Monitory Platform 8 spacecraft, which occurred on 1977 September 19, November 22, and 1979 March 1. For the first two events, the event-integrated spectra of protons possess double power-law profiles with break energies in a range of several MeV to tens of MeV, while the spectra integrated in the decay (reservoir) phase yield single power laws. Moreover, a general trend from a double power law at the rising phase to a single power law at the decay phase is observed. For the third event, both the event-integrated and the reservoir spectra show double power-law features. However, the difference between the low- and high-energy power-law indices is smaller for the reservoir spectrum than the event-integrated spectrum. These features were reproduced by solving the 1D diffusion equation analytically and we suggest that the transport process, especially the diffusion process, plays an important role in breaking the energy spectra.

  9. Multifluid Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar Wind Roe-Type Upwind Scheme: Magnetospheric Composition and Dynamics During Geomagnetic Storms-Initial Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glocer, A.; Toth, G.; Ma, Y.; Gombosi, T.; Zhang, J.-C.; Kistler, L. M.

    2009-01-01

    The magnetosphere contains a significant amount of ionospheric O+, particularly during geomagnetically active times. The presence of ionospheric plasma in the magnetosphere has a notable impact on magnetospheric composition and processes. We present a new multifluid MHD version of the Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme model of the magnetosphere to track the fate and consequences of ionospheric outflow. The multifluid MHD equations are presented as are the novel techniques for overcoming the formidable challenges associated with solving them. Our new model is then applied to the May 4, 1998 and March 31, 2001 geomagnetic storms. The results are juxtaposed with traditional single-fluid MHD and multispecies MHD simulations from a previous study, thereby allowing us to assess the benefits of using a more complex model with additional physics. We find that our multifluid MHD model (with outflow) gives comparable results to the multispecies MHD model (with outflow), including a more strongly negative Dst, reduced CPCP, and a drastically improved magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit, as compared to single-fluid MHD with no outflow. Significant differences in composition and magnetic field are found between the multispecies and multifluid approach further away from the Earth. We further demonstrate the ability to explore pressure and bulk velocity differences between H+ and O+, which is not possible when utilizing the other techniques considered

  10. The Build-Up to Eruptive Solar Events Viewed as the Development of Chiral Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, S. F.; Panasenco, O.; Berger, M. A.; Engvold, O.; Lin, Y.; Pevtsov, A. A.; Srivastava, N.

    2012-12-01

    When we examine the chirality or observed handedness of the chromospheric and coronal structures involved in the long-term build-up to eruptive events, we find that they evolve in very specific ways to form two and only two sets of large-scale chiral systems. Each system contains spatially separated components with both signs of chirality, the upper portion having negative (positive) chirality and the lower part possessing positive (negative) chirality. The components within a system are a filament channel (represented partially by sets of chromospheric fibrils), a filament (if present), a filament cavity, sometimes a sigmoid, and always an overlying arcade of coronal loops. When we view these components as parts of large-scale chiral systems, we more clearly see that it is not the individual components of chiral systems that erupt but rather it is the approximate upper parts of an entire evolving chiral system that erupts. We illustrate the typical pattern of build-up to eruptive solar events first without and then including the chirality in each stage of the build-up. We argue that a complete chiral system has one sign of handedness above the filament spine and the opposite handedness in the barbs and filament channel below the filament spine. If the spine has handedness, the observations favor its having the handedness of the filament cavity and coronal loops above. As the separate components of a chiral system form, we show that the system appears to maintain a balance of right-handed and left-handed features, thus preserving an initial near-zero net helicity. We further argue that the chiral systems allow us to identify key sites of energy transformation and stored energy later dissipated in the form of concurrent CMEs, erupting filaments and solar flares. Each individual chiral system may produce many successive eruptive events above a single filament channel. Because major eruptive events apparently do not occur independent of, or outside of, these unique

  11. OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.

    2012-01-01

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F 30 ≥ 10 10 cm –2 is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes 14 C and 10 Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F 30 = (1-1.5) × 10 10 cm –2 and no events with F 30 > 2 × 10 10 cm –2 are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved 10 Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F 30 = (1-3) × 10 10 cm –2 are found and clearly no event with F 30 > 5 × 10 10 cm –2 (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F 30 ≈ 1, 2-3, and 5×10 10 cm –2 for occurrence probabilities ≈10 –2 , 10 –3 , and 10 –4 yr –1 , respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as ≈40 (cm 2 s) –1 , in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

  12. Thunderstorms and flooding of August 17, 2007, with a context provided by a history of other large storm and flood events in the Black Hills area of South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Daniel G.; Bunkers, Matthew J.; Carter, Janet M.; Stamm, John F.; Williamson, Joyce E.

    2010-01-01

    The Black Hills area of western South Dakota has a history of damaging flash floods that have resulted primarily from exceptionally strong rain-producing thunderstorms. The best known example is the catastrophic storm system of June 9-10, 1972, which caused severe flooding in several major drainages near Rapid City and resulted in 238 deaths. More recently, severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding near Piedmont and Hermosa on August 17, 2007. Obtaining a thorough understanding of peak-flow characteristics for low-probability floods will require a comprehensive long-term approach involving (1) documentation of scientific information for extreme events such as these; (2) long-term collection of systematic peak-flow records; and (3) regional assessments of a wide variety of peak-flow information. To that end, the U.S. Geological Survey cooperated with the South Dakota Department of Transportation and National Weather Service to produce this report, which provides documentation regarding the August 17, 2007, storm and associated flooding and provides a context through examination of other large storm and flood events in the Black Hills area. The area affected by the August 17, 2007, storms and associated flooding generally was within the area affected by the larger storm of June 9-10, 1972. The maximum observed 2007 precipitation totals of between 10.00 and 10.50 inches occurred within about 2-3 hours in a small area about 5 miles west of Hermosa. The maximum documented precipitation amount in 1972 was 15.0 inches, and precipitation totals of 10.0 inches or more were documented for 34 locations within an area of about 76 square miles. A peak flow of less than 1 cubic foot per second occurred upstream from the 2007 storm extent for streamflow-gaging station 06404000 (Battle Creek near Keystone); whereas, the 1972 peak flow of 26,200 cubic feet per second was large, relative to the drainage area of only 58.6 square miles. Farther downstream along Battle Creek, a 2007

  13. Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

    2016-05-01

    Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically

  14. Multipoint observations of coronal mass ejection and solar energetic particle events on Mars and Earth during November 2001

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Falkenberg, Thea Vilstrup; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Brain, D. A.

    2011-01-01

    and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data to study ICMEs and SEPs at Earth, we present a detailed study of three CMEs and flares in late November 2001. In this period, Mars trailed Earth by 56 degrees solar longitude so that the two planets occupied interplanetary magnetic field lines...... not only ICME events but also SEP events at Mars, with good results providing a consistent picture of the events when combined with near-Earth data....

  15. Magnetic Storms at Mars and Earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Falkenberg, Thea Vilstrup

    In analogy with magnetic storms at the Earth, periods of significantly enhanced global magnetic activity also exist at Mars. The extensive database of magnetic measurements from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), covering almost an entire solar cycle, is used in combination with geomagnetic activity...... indices at Earth to compare the occurrence of magnetic storms at Mars and Earth. Based on superposed epochs analysis the time-development of typical magnetic storms at Mars and Earth is described. In contradiction to storms at Earth, most magnetic storms at Mars are found to be associated...... with heliospheric current sheet crossings, where the IMF changes polarity. While most storms at the Earth occur due to significant southward excursions of the IMF associated with CMEs, at Mars most storms seem to be associated with the density enhancement of the heliospheric current sheet. Density enhancements...

  16. Solar Activity from 2006 to 2014 and Short-term Forecasts of Solar Proton Events Using the ESPERTA Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alberti, T.; Lepreti, F. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università della Calabria, Ponte P. Bucci, Cubo 31C, 87036, Rende (CS) (Italy); Laurenza, M.; Storini, M.; Consolini, G. [INAF-IAPS, Via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, I-00133, Roma (Italy); Cliver, E. W., E-mail: tommaso.alberti@unical.it, E-mail: monica.laurenza@iaps.inaf.it [National Solar Observatory, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2017-03-20

    To evaluate the solar energetic proton (SEP) forecast model of Laurenza et al., here termed ESPERTA, we computed the input parameters (soft X-ray (SXR) fluence and ∼1 MHz radio fluence) for all ≥M2 SXR flares from 2006 to 2014. This database is outside the 1995–2005 interval on which ESPERTA was developed. To assess the difference in the general level of activity between these two intervals, we compared the occurrence frequencies of SXR flares and SEP events for the first six years of cycles 23 (1996 September–2002 September) and 24 (2008 December–2014 December). We found a reduction of SXR flares and SEP events of 40% and 46%, respectively, in the latter period. Moreover, the numbers of ≥M2 flares with high values of SXR and ∼1 MHz fluences (>0.1 J m{sup −2} and >6 × 10{sup 5} sfu × minute, respectively) are both reduced by ∼30%. A somewhat larger percentage decrease of these two parameters (∼40% versus ∼30%) is obtained for the 2006–2014 interval in comparison with 1995–2005. Despite these differences, ESPERTA performance was comparable for the two intervals. For the 2006–2014 interval, ESPERTA had a probability of detection (POD) of 59% (19/32) and a false alarm rate (FAR) of 30% (8/27), versus a POD = 63% (47/75) and an FAR = 42% (34/81) for the original 1995–2005 data set. In addition, for the 2006–2014 interval the median (average) warning time was estimated to be ∼2 hr (∼7 hr), versus ∼6 hr (∼9 hr), for the 1995–2005 data set.

  17. Developing a forecast model of solar proton flux profiles for well-connected events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, E. Y.; Moon, Y. J.; Park, J.

    2014-12-01

    We have developed a forecast model of solar proton flux profile (> 10 MeV channel) for well-connected events. Among 136 solar proton events (SPEs) from 1986 to 2006, we select 49 well-connected ones that are all associated with single X-ray flares stronger than M1 class and start to increase within four hours after their X-ray peak times. These events show rapid increments in proton flux. By comparing several empirical functions, we select a modified Weibull curve function to approximate a SPE flux profile, which is similar to the particle injection rate. The parameters (peak value, rise time and decay time) of this function are determined by the relationship between X-ray flare parameters (peak flux, impulsive time, and emission measure) and SPE parameters. For 49 well-connected SPEs, the linear correlation between the predicted proton peak flux and the observed proton peak fluxes is 0.65 with the RMS error of 0.55 pfu in the log10. In addition, we have developed another forecast model based on flare and CME parameters using 22 SPEs. The used CME parameters are linear speed and angular width. As a result, we find that the linear correlation between the predicted proton peak flux and the observed proton peak fluxes is 0.83 with the RMS error of 0.35 pfu in the log10. From the relationship between the model error and CME acceleration, we find that CME acceleration is also an important factor for predicting proton flux profiles.

  18. Modeling the acute health effects of astronauts from exposure to large solar particle events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shaowen; Kim, Myung-Hee Y; McClellan, Gene E; Cucinotta, Francis A

    2009-04-01

    Radiation exposure from Solar Particle Events (SPE) presents a significant health concern for astronauts for exploration missions outside the protection of the Earth's magnetic field, which could impair their performance and result in the possibility of failure of the mission. Assessing the potential for early radiation effects under such adverse conditions is of prime importance. Here we apply a biologically based mathematical model that describes the dose- and time-dependent early human responses that constitute the prodromal syndromes to consider acute risks from SPEs. We examine the possible early effects on crews from exposure to some historically large solar events on lunar and/or Mars missions. The doses and dose rates of specific organs were calculated using the Baryon radiation transport (BRYNTRN) code and a computerized anatomical man model, while the hazard of the early radiation effects and performance reduction were calculated using the Radiation-Induced Performance Decrement (RIPD) code. Based on model assumptions we show that exposure to these historical events would cause moderate early health effects to crew members inside a typical spacecraft or during extra-vehicular activities, if effective shielding and medical countermeasure tactics were not provided. We also calculate possible even worse cases (double intensity, multiple occurrences in a short period of time, etc.) to estimate the severity, onset and duration of various types of early illness. Uncertainties in the calculation due to limited data on relative biological effectiveness and dose-rate modifying factors for protons and secondary radiation, and the identification of sensitive sites in critical organs are discussed.

  19. A Generalized Approach to Model the Spectra and Radiation Dose Rate of Solar Particle Events on the Surface of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jingnan; Zeitlin, Cary; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.; McDole, Thoren; Kühl, Patrick; Appel, Jan C.; Matthiä, Daniel; Krauss, Johannes; Köhler, Jan

    2018-01-01

    For future human missions to Mars, it is important to study the surface radiation environment during extreme and elevated conditions. In the long term, it is mainly galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) modulated by solar activity that contribute to the radiation on the surface of Mars, but intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events may induce acute health effects. Such events may enhance the radiation level significantly and should be detected as immediately as possible to prevent severe damage to humans and equipment. However, the energetic particle environment on the Martian surface is significantly different from that in deep space due to the influence of the Martian atmosphere. Depending on the intensity and shape of the original solar particle spectra, as well as particle types, the surface spectra may induce entirely different radiation effects. In order to give immediate and accurate alerts while avoiding unnecessary ones, it is important to model and well understand the atmospheric effect on the incoming SEPs, including both protons and helium ions. In this paper, we have developed a generalized approach to quickly model the surface response of any given incoming proton/helium ion spectra and have applied it to a set of historical large solar events, thus providing insights into the possible variety of surface radiation environments that may be induced during SEP events. Based on the statistical study of more than 30 significant solar events, we have obtained an empirical model for estimating the surface dose rate directly from the intensities of a power-law SEP spectra.

  20. Radial dependence of solar energetic particles derived from the 15 March 2013 solar energetic particle event and global MHD simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Chin-Chun, E-mail: chin-chun.wu@nrl.navy.mil; Plunkett, Simon, E-mail: simon.plunkett@nrl.navy.mil [Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Liou, Kan, E-mail: kan.liou@jhuapl.edu [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Maryland (United States); Wu, S. T., E-mail: wus@uah.edu [CSPAR, University of Alabama, Huntsville, Alabama (United States); Dryer, Murray, E-mail: murraydryer@msn.com [Emeritus, NOAA, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2016-03-25

    We study an unusual solar energetic particle (SEP) event that was associated with the coronal mass ejection (CME) on March 15, 2013. Enhancements of the SEP fluxes were first detected by the ACE spacecraft at 14:00 UT, ∼7 hours after the onset of the CME (07:00 UT), and the SEP’s peak intensities were recorded ∼36 hours after the onset of the CME. Our recent study showed that the CME-driven shock Mach number, based on a global three-dimensional (3-D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, is well correlated with the time-intensity of 10-30 MeV and 30-80 MeV protons. Here we focus on the radial dependence (r{sup −α}) of {sup 4}He (3.43-41.2 MeV/n) and O (7.30-89.8 MeV/n) energetic particles from ACE/SIS. It is found that the scaling factor (α) ranges between 2 and 4 for most of the energy channels. We also found that the correlation coefficients tend to increase with SEP energies.

  1. Role of neutral wind and storm time electric fields inferred from the storm time ionization distribution at low latitudes: in-situ measurements by Indian satellite SROSS-C2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Subrahmanyam

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there has been a renewal of interest in the study of the effects of solar weather events on the ionization redistribution and irregularity generation. The observed changes at low and equatorial latitudes are rather complex and are noted to be a function of location, the time of the storm onset and its intensity, and various other characteristics of the geomagnetic storms triggered by solar weather events. At these latitudes, the effects of geomagnetic storms are basically due to (a direct penetration of the magnetospheric electric fields to low latitudes, (b development of disturbance dynamo, (c changes in atmospheric neutral winds at ionospheric level and (d changes in neutral composition triggered by the storm time atmospheric heating.

    In the present study an attempt is made to further understand some of the observed storm time effects in terms of storm time changes in zonal electric fields and meridional neutral winds. For this purpose, observations made by the Retarding Potential Analyzer (RPA payload on board the Indian satellite SROSS-C2 are examined for four prominent geomagnetic storm events that occurred during the high solar activity period of 1997-2000. Available simultaneous observations, from the GPS satellite network, are also used. The daytime passes of SROSS-C2 have been selected to examine the redistribution of ionization in the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA region. In general, EIA is observed to be weakened 12-24 h after the main phase onset (MPO of the storm. The storm time behaviour inferred by SROSS-C2 and the GPS satellite network during the geomagnetic storm of 13 November 1998, for which simultaneous observations are available, is found to be consistent. Storm time changes in the delay of received GPS signals are noted to be ~1-3 m, which is a significant component of the total delay observed on a quiet day.

    An attempt is made to identify and

  2. Strategies to take into account variations in extreme rainfall events for design storms in urban area: an example over Naples (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercogliano, P.; Rianna, G.

    2017-12-01

    Eminent works highlighted how available observations display ongoing increases in extreme rainfall events while climate models assess them for future. Although the constraints in rainfall networks observations and uncertainties in climate modelling currently affect in significant way investigations, the huge impacts potentially induced by climate changes (CC) suggest adopting effective adaptation measures in order to take proper precautions. In this regard, design storms are used by engineers to size hydraulic infrastructures potentially affected by direct (e.g. pluvial/urban flooding) and indirect (e.g. river flooding) effects of extreme rainfall events. Usually they are expressed as IDF curves, mathematical relationships between rainfall Intensity, Duration, and the return period (frequency, F). They are estimated interpreting through Extreme Theories Statistical Theories (ETST) past rainfall records under the assumption of steady conditions resulting then unsuitable under climate change. In this work, a methodology to estimate future variations in IDF curves is presented and carried out for the city of Naples (Southern Italy). In this regard, the Equidistance Quantile Matching Approach proposed by Sivrastav et al. (2014) is adopted. According it, daily-subdaily maximum precipitation observations [a] and the analogous daily data provided by climate projections on current [b] and future time spans [c] are interpreted in IDF terms through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) approach. After, quantile based mapping approach is used to establish a statistical relationship between cumulative distribution functions resulting by GEV of [a] and [b] (spatial downscaling) and [b] and [c] functions (temporal downscaling). Coupling so-obtained relations permits generating IDF curves under CC assumption. To account for uncertainties in future projections, all climate simulations available for the area in Euro-Cordex multimodel ensemble at 0.11° (about 12 km) are considered under

  3. A superposed epoch analysis of geomagnetic storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Taylor

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available A superposed epoch analysis of geomagnetic storms has been undertaken. The storms are categorised via their intensity (as defined by the Dst index. Storms have also been classified here as either storm sudden commencements (SSCs or storm gradual commencements (SGCs, that is all storms which did not begin with a sudden commencement. The prevailing solar wind conditions defined by the parameters solar wind speed (vsw, density (ρsw and pressure (Psw and the total field and the components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF during the storms in each category have been investigated by a superposed epoch analysis. The southward component of the IMF, appears to be the controlling parameter for the generation of small SGCs (-100 nT< minimum Dst ≤ -50 nT for ≥ 4 h, but for SSCs of the same intensity solar wind pressure is dominant. However, for large SSCs (minimum Dst ≤ -100 nT for ≥ 4 h the solar wind speed is the controlling parameter. It is also demonstrated that for larger storms magnetic activity is not solely driven by the accumulation of substorm activity, but substantial energy is directly input via the dayside. Furthermore, there is evidence that SSCs are caused by the passage of a coronal mass ejection, whereas SGCs result from the passage of a high speed/ slow speed coronal stream interface. Storms are also grouped by the sign of Bz during the first hour epoch after the onset. The sign of Bz at t = +1 h is the dominant sign of the Bz for ~24 h before the onset. The total energy released during storms for which Bz was initially positive is, however, of the same order as for storms where Bz was initially negative.

  4. Problems in the forecasting of solar particle events for manned missions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feynman, J.; Ruzmaikin, A.

    1999-01-01

    Manned spacecraft will require a much improved ability to forecast solar particle events. The lead time required will depend on the use to which the forecast is put. Here we discuss problems of forecasting with the lead times of hours to weeks. Such forecasts are needed for scheduling and carrying out activities. Our present capabilities with these lead times is extremely limited. To improve our capability we must develop an ability to predict fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). It is not sufficient to observe that a CME has already taken place since by that time it is already too late to make predictions with these lead times. Both to learn how to predict CMEs and to carry out forecasts on time scales of several days to weeks, observations of the other side of the Sun are required. We describe a low-cost space mission of this type that would further the development of an hours-to-weeks forecast capability

  5. The effect of the magnetic topology of the Magnetic Clouds over the Solar Energetic Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, J.; Hidalgo, M.; Blanco, J.; Rodriguez-Pacheco, J.

    2007-12-01

    We have simulated the effect of the magnetic topology of the Magnetic Clouds (MCs) over the solar energetic particle event (SEPe) fluxes (0.5-100 MeV) provided by solar flares. When a SEPe passes through a MC a characteristic behaviour in the data corresponding to the ion and electron fluxes is observed: a depression after a strong maximum of the flux. Using our cross-section circular and elliptical MC models we have tried to explain that effect, understanding the importance of the topology of the MC. In sight of the results of the preliminary analysis we conclude that the magnitude of the magnetic field seems not to play a significant role but the helicoidal topology associated with topology of the MCs. This work has been supported by the Spanish Comisión Internacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CICYT), grant ESP2005-07290-C02-01 and ESP2006-08459. This work is performed inside COST Action 724.

  6. Why is solar cycle 24 an inefficient producer of high-energy particle events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vainio, Rami; Raukunen, Osku; Tylka, Allan J.; Dietrich, William F.; Afanasiev, Alexandr

    2017-08-01

    Aims: The aim of the study is to investigate the reason for the low productivity of high-energy SEPs in the present solar cycle. Methods: We employ scaling laws derived from diffusive shock acceleration theory and simulation studies including proton-generated upstream Alfvén waves to find out how the changes observed in the long-term average properties of the erupting and ambient coronal and/or solar wind plasma would affect the ability of shocks to accelerate particles to the highest energies. Results: Provided that self-generated turbulence dominates particle transport around coronal shocks, it is found that the most crucial factors controlling the diffusive shock acceleration process are the number density of seed particles and the plasma density of the ambient medium. Assuming that suprathermal populations provide a fraction of the particles injected to shock acceleration in the corona, we show that the lack of most energetic particle events as well as the lack of low charge-to-mass ratio ion species in the present cycle can be understood as a result of the reduction of average coronal plasma and suprathermal densities in the present cycle over the previous one.

  7. OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Usoskin, Ilya G. [Sodankylae Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit) and Department of Physical Sciences, University of Oulu, FIN-90014 Oulu (Finland); Kovaltsov, Gennady A., E-mail: ilya.usoskin@oulu.fi [Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute of RAS, 194021 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2012-09-20

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F{sub 30} {>=} 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes {sup 14}C and {sup 10}Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-1.5) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} and no events with F{sub 30} > 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved {sup 10}Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-3) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are found and clearly no event with F{sub 30} > 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F{sub 30} Almost-Equal-To 1, 2-3, and 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} for occurrence probabilities Almost-Equal-To 10{sup -2}, 10{sup -3}, and 10{sup -4} yr{sup -1}, respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as Almost-Equal-To 40 (cm{sup 2} s){sup -1}, in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

  8. Zenith: A Radiosonde Detector for Rapid-Response Ionizing Atmospheric Radiation Measurements During Solar Particle Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, A. C. R.; Ryden, K. A.; Hands, A. D. P.; Dyer, C.; Burnett, C.; Gibbs, M.

    2018-03-01

    Solar energetic particle events create radiation risks for aircraft, notably single-event effects in microelectronics along with increased dose to crew and passengers. In response to this, some airlines modify their flight routes after automatic alerts are issued. At present these alerts are based on proton flux measurements from instruments onboard satellites, so it is important that contemporary atmospheric radiation measurements are made and compared. This paper presents the development of a rapid-response system built around the use of radiosondes equipped with a radiation detector, Zenith, which can be launched from a Met Office weather station after significant solar proton level alerts are issued. Zenith is a compact, battery-powered solid-state radiation monitor designed to be connected to a Vaisala RS-92 radiosonde, which transmits all data to a ground station as it ascends to an altitude of 33 km. Zenith can also be operated as a stand-alone detector when connected to a laptop, providing real-time count rates. It can also be adapted for use on unmanned aerial vehicles. Zenith has been flown on the Met Office Civil Contingency Aircraft, taken to the European Organization for Nuclear Research-EU high energy Reference Field facility for calibration and launched on a meteorological balloon at the Met Office's weather station in Camborne, Cornwall, UK. During this sounding, Zenith measured the Pfotzer-Regener maximum to be at an altitude of 18-20 km where the count rate was measured to be 1.15 c s-1 cm-2 compared to 0.02 c s-1 cm-2 at ground level.

  9. Energy Dispersion in Solar Ion Events over 4 Orders of Magnitude: SOHO/COSTEP and Wind/STICS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunow, Horst W.; Posner, A.

    2003-07-01

    The ma jority of solar particle events in the COSTEP observational range of 4 75 MeV/n reveals nucleon energy disp ersion (NED), implying a flare-associated particle acceleration mechanism. Towards lower energies, the situation changes somewhat. Only in a minority of solar energetic particle (SEP) events can the effect of NED be followed into the lower keV range. We analyse the reasons for the distinctly different types of particle transport of >10 keV suprathermal up to 100 MeV energetic ions and conclude that the mean free path depends on rigidity.

  10. Solar micro-bursts of 22. 2 GHz and their relationship to events observed at lower frequencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blakey, J R [Universidade Mackenzie, Sao Paulo (Brazil). Centro de Radio-Astronomia e Astrofisica

    1976-01-01

    Observations of McMath region 10433 at 22 GHz using a telescope with a 4 minutes of arc beam during July 1974 revealed the existence events or 'microbursts' with intensities below the sensitivity limit of normal solar patrol instruments. Many of these events were simply the high frequency counterpart of more intense bursts observed at lower frequencies. This note considers the small number of events which suggest that the gyro-synchrotron mechanism alone is incapable of explaining the observations and indicates that a thermal mechanism is needed to explain the high frequency event.

  11. Identification of Solar Events Responsible for ICMEs at 1AU - Estimation of Chirality and Helicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrich, Roger K.; tran, Tham; Riley, Pete

    2017-08-01

    We start with the table of identified interplanetary magnetic clouds provided by the WIND/SWI project at https://wind.gsfc.nasa.gov/mfi/mag_cloud_S1.html .Our procedure uses the following steps:1) We take candidates observed during the HMI era from the above catalogue.2) We average cloud start and end times.3) We subtract an estimated travel time to get an origin time.4) We find a halo or partial halo CME near the origin time using the CDAW catalogue.5) We estimate a quadrant for the solar event from the CME shape.6) We use the jHelioviewer on AIA 173 differences with a 5 minute cadence to find an ejected loop near the origin time.7) We place the foot points near the locations of maxima and minima of Br (i.e. the strongest fields of opposite sign).8) We find the field gradients such as (curl B)r at these points.The above steps have been applied to the 37 clouds listed in the MFI table for the period 2011 to 2012 with the result that only 7 clouds could be identified and clearly associated with solar surface origination points. The MFI table includes an estimation of the cloud chirality. Transverse magnetic fields on the solar surface can be determinedfrom the observations of the HMI instrument on the SDO spacecraft in two different ways: the standard HMI pipeline or the Ulrich - Boyden method. The Ulrich - Boyden method gives the correct chirality for all 7 cases while the standard pipeline gives the correct chirality for 6 of the 7 clouds.The clouds are belowAR Solar Source HelicityMFI Number Source Day/Hr Coord Pred Obs129 11158 11/02/15:02:24 S22W09-S18W18 L L133 11226 11/06/01:18:36 S21E19-S19E15 R R134 11226-11227 11/06/02:07:41 S20E26-S21E16 R R138 11289-11293 11/09/13:23:12 N23W13-N17W23 L L148 11504 12/06/14:14:12 S16E11-S16E03 R R154 11560-11561 12/09/02:04:00 N01W04-N05W11 L L161 11610 12/11/10:05:12 S24E11-S20E07 R RThis research has been supported by NASA through award NNX15AF39G to Predictive Science, Inc. and subaward to UCLA

  12. The Earth's revolution, Moon phase, Syzygy astronomy events, their effect in disturbances of the Earth's geomagnetic field, and the ``Magnetic Storm Double Time Method'' for predicting the occurrence time, magnitude and epicenter location of earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I. W.

    2003-04-01

    An increasing number of geomagnetic observation stations were established and operated in China since 1966 to the 1980s (and until present), effectively covering a large area of the nation. Close relativity between magnetic storms and earthquakes, as well as close relativity between the regional differences of magnetic disturbance recorded by these stations and the epicenter location of earthquakes, was discovered and observed by Tie-zheng Zhang during1966 - 1969. On such basis during 1969/1970, Zhang developed the “Magnetic Storm Double Time Method” for predicting the occurrence time, magnitude and epicenter location of EQs. By this method,.Zhang successfully predicted the Yunnan Tonghai Ms7.7 EQ Jan. 5, 1970 (occurrence date only), the Bohai ML5.2 EQ, Feb. 12, 1970 and other EQs, including the Haicheng Ms7.3 EQ Feb. 4, 1975, and the Tangshan Ms7.8 EQ July 28, 1976. On the basis of this method, Z.P. Shen developed the “Geomagnetic Deflection Angle Double Time Method” in 1970, and later developed the “Magnetic Storm - Moon Phase Double Time Method” in 1990s. With this method, Shen is able to predict the occurrence dates of most of the strongest EQs Ms37.5 on the Earth since 1991. Zhang also discovered that strong EQs often correspond with a number of sets of magnetic storms. Z.Q. Ren discovered close relativity exists between Syzygy astronomy events and such sets of magnetic storm as well as the occurrence dates of strong EQs. Computerized calculation of historical magnetic storm and EQ data proves the effectiveness of this method. Over 3,000 days of geomagnetic isoline images are computer processed by the Author from over 400,000 geomagnetic field data obtained by Zhang from over 100 geomagnetic observation stations during 1966 - 1984. Clear relativity is shown between the Earth’s revolution, Moon phases, Syzygy astronomy events related to the Earth, and their disturbance effect on the Earth’s geomagnetic field and the occurrence of EQs.

  13. Solar radiophysics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLean, D.J.; Labrum, N.R.

    1985-01-01

    This book treats all aspects of solar radioastronomy at metre wavelengths, particularly work carried out on the Australian radioheliograph at Culgoora, with which most of the authors have been associated in one way or another. After an introductory section on historical aspects, the solar atmosphere, solar flares, and coronal radio emission, the book deals with instrumentation, theory, and details of observations and interpretations of the various aspects of metrewave solar radioastronomy, including burst types, solar storms, and the quiet sun. (U.K.)

  14. Identification of possible intense historical geomagnetic storms using combined sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Willis

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive catalogues of ancient sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia are used to identify possible intense historical geomagnetic storms in the interval 210 BC-AD 1918. There are about 270 entries in the sunspot catalogue and about 1150 entries in the auroral catalogue. Special databases have been constructed in which the scientific information in these two catalogues is placed in specified fields. For the purposes of this study, an historical geomagnetic storm is defined in terms of an auroral observation that is apparently associated with a particular sunspot observation, in the sense that the auroral observation occurred within several days of the sunspot observation. More precisely, a selection criterion is formulated for the automatic identification of such geomagnetic storms, using the oriental records stored in the sunspot and auroral databases. The selection criterion is based on specific assumptions about the duration of sunspot visibility with the unaided eye, the likely range of heliographic longitudes of an energetic solar feature, and the likely range of transit times for ejected solar plasma to travel from the Sun to the Earth. This selection criterion results in the identification of nineteen putative historical geomagnetic storms, although two of these storms are spurious in the sense that there are two examples of a single sunspot observation being associated with two different auroral observations separated by more than half a (synodic solar rotation period. The literary and scientific reliabilities of the East Asian sunspot and auroral records that define the nineteen historical geomagnetic storms are discussed in detail in a set of appendices. A possible time sequence of events is presented for each geomagnetic storm, including possible dates for both the central meridian passage of the sunspot and the occurrence of the energetic solar feature, as well as likely transit times for the ejected solar plasma

  15. SHOCK CONNECTIVITY IN THE 2010 AUGUST AND 2012 JULY SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS INFERRED FROM OBSERVATIONS AND ENLIL MODELING

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bain, H. M.; Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Jian, L. K.; Odstrcil, D.

    2016-01-01

    During periods of increased solar activity, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can occur in close succession and proximity to one another. This can lead to the interaction and merger of CME ejecta as they propagate in the heliosphere. The particles accelerated in these shocks can result in complex solar energetic particle (SEP) events, as observing spacecraft form both remote and local shock connections. It can be challenging to understand these complex SEP events from in situ profiles alone. Multipoint observations of CMEs in the near-Sun environment, from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory –Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph, greatly improve our chances of identifying the origin of these accelerated particles. However, contextual information on conditions in the heliosphere, including the background solar wind conditions and shock structures, is essential for understanding SEP properties well enough to forecast their characteristics. Wang–Sheeley–Arge WSA-ENLIL + Cone modeling provides a tool to interpret major SEP event periods in the context of a realistic heliospheric model and to determine how much of what is observed in large SEP events depends on nonlocal magnetic connections to shock sources. We discuss observations of the SEP-rich periods of 2010 August and 2012 July in conjunction with ENLIL modeling. We find that much SEP activity can only be understood in the light of such models, and in particular from knowing about both remote and local shock source connections. These results must be folded into the investigations of the physics underlying the longitudinal extent of SEP events, and the source connection versus diffusion pictures of interpretations of SEP events.

  16. SHOCK CONNECTIVITY IN THE 2010 AUGUST AND 2012 JULY SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS INFERRED FROM OBSERVATIONS AND ENLIL MODELING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bain, H. M.; Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y. [Space Sciences Laboratory, UC Berkeley, 7 Gauss Way, Berkeley, CA 94720-7450 (United States); Mays, M. L. [Catholic University of America, Washington, DC (United States); Jian, L. K.; Odstrcil, D., E-mail: hbain@ssl.berkeley.edu [Heliophysics Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2016-07-01

    During periods of increased solar activity, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can occur in close succession and proximity to one another. This can lead to the interaction and merger of CME ejecta as they propagate in the heliosphere. The particles accelerated in these shocks can result in complex solar energetic particle (SEP) events, as observing spacecraft form both remote and local shock connections. It can be challenging to understand these complex SEP events from in situ profiles alone. Multipoint observations of CMEs in the near-Sun environment, from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory –Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph, greatly improve our chances of identifying the origin of these accelerated particles. However, contextual information on conditions in the heliosphere, including the background solar wind conditions and shock structures, is essential for understanding SEP properties well enough to forecast their characteristics. Wang–Sheeley–Arge WSA-ENLIL + Cone modeling provides a tool to interpret major SEP event periods in the context of a realistic heliospheric model and to determine how much of what is observed in large SEP events depends on nonlocal magnetic connections to shock sources. We discuss observations of the SEP-rich periods of 2010 August and 2012 July in conjunction with ENLIL modeling. We find that much SEP activity can only be understood in the light of such models, and in particular from knowing about both remote and local shock source connections. These results must be folded into the investigations of the physics underlying the longitudinal extent of SEP events, and the source connection versus diffusion pictures of interpretations of SEP events.

  17. Multiradionuclide evidence for the solar origin of the cosmic-ray events of ᴀᴅ 774/5 and 993/4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Adolphi, Florian; Aldahan, Ala; Beer, Jürg; McConnell, Joseph R; Possnert, Göran; Sigl, Michael; Svensson, Anders; Synal, Hans-Arno; Welten, Kees C; Woodruff, Thomas E

    2015-10-26

    The origin of two large peaks in the atmospheric radiocarbon ((14)C) concentration at AD 774/5 and 993/4 is still debated. There is consensus, however, that these features can only be explained by an increase in the atmospheric (14)C production rate due to an extraterrestrial event. Here we provide evidence that these peaks were most likely produced by extreme solar events, based on several new annually resolved (10)Be measurements from both Arctic and Antarctic ice cores. Using ice core (36)Cl data in pair with (10)Be, we further show that these solar events were characterized by a very hard energy spectrum with high fluxes of solar protons with energy above 100 MeV. These results imply that the larger of the two events (AD 774/5) was at least five times stronger than any instrumentally recorded solar event. Our findings highlight the importance of studying the possibility of severe solar energetic particle events.

  18. Thyroid storm precipitated by duodenal ulcer perforation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natsuda, Shoko; Nakashima, Yomi; Horie, Ichiro; Ando, Takao; Kawakami, Atsushi

    2015-01-01

    Thyroid storm is a rare and life-threatening complication of thyrotoxicosis that requires prompt treatment. Thyroid storm is also known to be associated with precipitating events. The simultaneous treatment of thyroid storm and its precipitant, when they are recognized, in a patient is recommended; otherwise such disorders, including thyroid storm, can exacerbate each other. Here we report the case of a thyroid storm patient (a 55-year-old Japanese male) complicated with a perforated duodenal ulcer. The patient was successfully treated with intensive treatment for thyroid storm and a prompt operation. Although it is believed that peptic ulcer rarely coexists with hyperthyroidism, among patients with thyroid storm, perforation of a peptic ulcer has been reported as one of the causes of fatal outcome. We determined that surgical intervention was required in this patient, reported despite ongoing severe thyrotoxicosis, and reported herein a successful outcome.

  19. Thyroid Storm Precipitated by Duodenal Ulcer Perforation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shoko Natsuda

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Thyroid storm is a rare and life-threatening complication of thyrotoxicosis that requires prompt treatment. Thyroid storm is also known to be associated with precipitating events. The simultaneous treatment of thyroid storm and its precipitant, when they are recognized, in a patient is recommended; otherwise such disorders, including thyroid storm, can exacerbate each other. Here we report the case of a thyroid storm patient (a 55-year-old Japanese male complicated with a perforated duodenal ulcer. The patient was successfully treated with intensive treatment for thyroid storm and a prompt operation. Although it is believed that peptic ulcer rarely coexists with hyperthyroidism, among patients with thyroid storm, perforation of a peptic ulcer has been reported as one of the causes of fatal outcome. We determined that surgical intervention was required in this patient, reported despite ongoing severe thyrotoxicosis, and reported herein a successful outcome.

  20. Thromboembolic complications of thyroid storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, T; Benjamin, S; Cozma, L

    2014-01-01

    Thyroid storm is a rare but potentially life-threatening complication of hyperthyroidism. Early recognition and prompt treatment are essential. Atrial fibrillation can occur in up to 40% of patients with thyroid storm. Studies have shown that hyperthyroidism increases the risk of thromboembolic events. There is no consensus with regard to the initiation of anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation in severe thyrotoxicosis. Anticoagulation is not routinely initiated if the risk is low on a CHADS2 score; however, this should be considered in patients with thyroid storm or severe thyrotoxicosis with impending storm irrespective of the CHADS2 risk, as it appears to increase the risk of thromboembolic episodes. Herein, we describe a case of thyroid storm complicated by massive pulmonary embolism. Diagnosis of thyroid storm is based on clinical findings. Early recognition and prompt treatment could lead to a favourable outcome.Hypercoagulable state is a recognised complication of thyrotoxicosis.Atrial fibrillation is strongly associated with hyperthyroidism and thyroid storm.Anticoagulation should be considered for patients with severe thyrotoxicosis and atrial fibrillation irrespective of the CHADS2 score.Patients with severe thyrotoxicosis and clinical evidence of thrombosis should be immediately anticoagulated until hyperthyroidism is under control.

  1. Geomagnetic storms in the Antarctic F-region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wrenn, G.L.; Rodger, A.S.; Rishbeth, H.

    1987-01-01

    New analysis procedures are used to show that the main phase mid-latitude storm effects conform to consistent patterns in local time when suitable selection rules are applied, with averaging over several years. Changes in the maximum plasma frequency, foF2, with respect to estimated quiet-time values, are analysed in terms of asub(p)(t), a new geomagnetic index derived to take account of integrated disturbance. Reduction of foF2 is greatest during the early morning hours, in summer, at higher geomagnetic latitudes, near solar minimum and through the more active periods. The various dependencies are quantitatively determined for the first time by creating an average 'steady state' disturbance, rather than following specific storm events. This approach permits tests of competing theories using available modelling programs. (author)

  2. Storm pulse chemographs of saturation index and carbon dioxide pressure: implications for shifting recharge sources during storm events in the karst aquifer at Fort Campbell, Kentucky/Tennessee, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesper, Dorothy J.; White, William B.

    Continuous records of discharge, specific conductance, and temperature were collected through a series of storm pulses on two limestone springs at Fort Campbell, western Kentucky/Tennessee, USA. Water samples, collected at short time intervals across the same storm pulses, were analyzed for calcium, magnesium, bicarbonate, total organic carbon, and pH. Chemographs of calcium, calcite saturation index, and carbon dioxide partial pressure were superimposed on the storm hydrographs. Calcium concentration and specific conductance track together and dip to a minimum either coincident with the peak of the hydrograph or lag slightly behind it. The CO2 pressure continues to rise on the recession limb of the hydrograph and, as a result, the saturation index decreases on the recession limb of the hydrograph. These results are interpreted as being due to dispersed infiltration through CO2-rich soils lagging the arrival of quickflow from sinkhole recharge in the transport of storm flow to the springs. Karst spring hydrographs reflect not only the changing mix of base flow and storm flow but also a shift in source of recharge water over the course of the storm. L'enregistrement en continu du débit, de la conductivité et de la température de l'eau a été réalisé au cours d'une série de crues à deux sources émergeant de calcaires, à Fort Campbell (Kentucky occidental, Tennessee, États-Unis). Des échantillons d'eau, prélevés à de courts pas de temps lors de ces crues, ont été analysés pour le calcium, le magnésium, les bicarbonates, le carbone organique total et le pH. Les chimiogrammes de calcium, d'indice de saturation de la calcite et de la pression partielle en CO2 ont été superposés aux hydrogrammes de crue. La concentration en calcium et la conductivité de l'eau se suivent bien et passent par un minimum correspondant au pic de l'hydrogramme ou légèrement retardé. La pression partielle en CO2 continue de croître au cours de la récession de l

  3. Short- and medium-term atmospheric constituent effects of very large solar proton events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. H. Jackman

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Solar eruptions sometimes produce protons, which impact the Earth's atmosphere. These solar proton events (SPEs generally last a few days and produce high energy particles that precipitate into the Earth's atmosphere. The protons cause ionization and dissociation processes that ultimately lead to an enhancement of odd-hydrogen and odd-nitrogen in the polar cap regions (>60° geomagnetic latitude. We have used the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3 to study the atmospheric impact of SPEs over the period 1963–2005. The very largest SPEs were found to be the most important and caused atmospheric effects that lasted several months after the events. We present the short- and medium-term (days to a few months atmospheric influence of the four largest SPEs in the past 45 years (August 1972; October 1989; July 2000; and October–November 2003 as computed by WACCM3 and observed by satellite instruments. Polar mesospheric NOx (NO+NO2 increased by over 50 ppbv and mesospheric ozone decreased by over 30% during these very large SPEs. Changes in HNO3, N2O5, ClONO2, HOCl, and ClO were indirectly caused by the very large SPEs in October–November 2003, were simulated by WACCM3, and previously measured by Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS. WACCM3 output was also represented by sampling with the MIPAS averaging kernel for a more valid comparison. Although qualitatively similar, there are discrepancies between the model and measurement with WACCM3 predicted HNO3 and ClONO2 enhancements being smaller than measured and N2O5 enhancements being larger than measured. The HOCl enhancements were fairly similar in amounts and temporal variation in WACCM3 and MIPAS. WACCM3 simulated ClO decreases below 50 km, whereas MIPAS mainly observed increases, a very perplexing difference. Upper stratospheric

  4. Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during small geomagnetic storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, B R; Millan, R M; Reeves, G D; Friedel, R H W

    2015-12-16

    Past studies of radiation belt relativistic electrons have favored active storm time periods, while the effects of small geomagnetic storms ( D s t  > -50 nT) have not been statistically characterized. In this timely study, given the current weak solar cycle, we identify 342 small storms from 1989 through 2000 and quantify the corresponding change in relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Surprisingly, small storms can be equally as effective as large storms at enhancing and depleting fluxes. Slight differences exist, as small storms are 10% less likely to result in flux enhancement and 10% more likely to result in flux depletion than large storms. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither acceleration nor loss mechanisms scale with storm drivers as would be expected. Small geomagnetic storms play a significant role in radiation belt relativistic electron dynamics and provide opportunities to gain new insights into the complex balance of acceleration and loss processes.

  5. Different magnetospheric modes: solar wind driving and coupling efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Partamies

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes a systematic statistical comparison of isolated non-storm substorms, steady magnetospheric convection (SMC intervals and sawtooth events. The number of events is approximately the same in each group and the data are taken from about the same years to avoid biasing by different solar cycle phase. The very same superposed epoch analysis is performed for each event group to show the characteristics of ground-based indices (AL, PCN, PC potential, particle injection at the geostationary orbit and the solar wind and IMF parameters. We show that the monthly occurrence of sawtooth events and isolated non-stormtime substorms closely follows maxima of the geomagnetic activity at (or close to the equinoxes. The most strongly solar wind driven event type, sawtooth events, is the least efficient in coupling the solar wind energy to the auroral ionosphere, while SMC periods are associated with the highest coupling ratio (AL/EY. Furthermore, solar wind speed seems to play a key role in determining the type of activity in the magnetosphere. Slow solar wind is capable of maintaining steady convection. During fast solar wind streams the magnetosphere responds with loading–unloading cycles, represented by substorms during moderately active conditions and sawtooth events (or other storm-time activations during geomagnetically active conditions.

  6. Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) as tracers of solar wind conditions near Saturn: Event lists and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roussos, E.; Jackman, C. M.; Thomsen, M. F.; Kurth, W. S.; Badman, S. V.; Paranicas, C.; Kollmann, P.; Krupp, N.; Bučík, R.; Mitchell, D. G.; Krimigis, S. M.; Hamilton, D. C.; Radioti, A.

    2018-01-01

    The lack of an upstream solar wind monitor poses a major challenge to any study that investigates the influence of the solar wind on the configuration and the dynamics of Saturn's magnetosphere. Here we show how Cassini MIMI/LEMMS observations of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) transients, that are both linked to energetic processes in the heliosphere such us Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs), can be used to trace enhanced solar wind conditions at Saturn's distance. SEP protons can be easily distinguished from magnetospheric ions, particularly at the MeV energy range. Many SEPs are also accompanied by strong GCR Forbush Decreases. GCRs are detectable as a low count-rate noise signal in a large number of LEMMS channels. As SEPs and GCRs can easily penetrate into the outer and middle magnetosphere, they can be monitored continuously, even when Cassini is not situated in the solar wind. A survey of the MIMI/LEMMS dataset between 2004 and 2016 resulted in the identification of 46 SEP events. Most events last more than two weeks and have their lowest occurrence rate around the extended solar minimum between 2008 and 2010, suggesting that they are associated to ICMEs rather than CIRs, which are the main source of activity during the declining phase and the minimum of the solar cycle. We also list of 17 time periods ( > 50 days each) where GCRs show a clear solar periodicity ( ∼ 13 or 26 days). The 13-day period that derives from two CIRs per solar rotation dominates over the 26-day period in only one of the 17 cases catalogued. This interval belongs to the second half of 2008 when expansions of Saturn's electron radiation belts were previously reported to show a similar periodicity. That observation not only links the variability of Saturn's electron belts to solar wind processes, but also indicates that the source of the observed periodicity in GCRs may be local. In this case GCR

  7. Coastal Storm Hazards from Virginia to Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-01

    secondary terms • integration of joint probability of storm responses, including extratropical events. A diagram summarizing the JPM methodology is... Extratropical Cyclones. The GPD- based approach defined above was used to compute the final storm response statistics for XCs. ERDC/CHL TR-15-5 39...from the numerical modeling of all storms , tropical and extratropical . As discussed in Section 2.1.2, JPM methodology generally consists of the

  8. TRANSIENT GALACTIC COSMIC-RAY MODULATION DURING SOLAR CYCLE 24: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TWO PROMINENT FORBUSH DECREASE EVENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, L.-L.; Zhang, H.

    2016-01-01

    Forbush decrease (FD) events are of great interest for transient galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) modulation study. In this study, we perform comparative analysis of two prominent Forbush events during cycle 24, occurring on 2012 March 8 (Event 1) and 2015 June 22 (Event 2), utilizing the measurements from the worldwide neutron monitor (NM) network. Despite their comparable magnitudes, the two Forbush events are distinctly different in terms of evolving GCR energy spectrum and energy dependence of the recovery time. The recovery time of Event 1 is strongly dependent on the median energy, compared to the nearly constant recovery time of Event 2 over the studied energy range. Additionally, while the evolutions of the energy spectra during the two FD events exhibit similar variation patterns, the spectrum of Event 2 is significantly harder, especially at the time of deepest depression. These difference are essentially related to their associated solar wind disturbances. Event 1 is associated with a complicated shock-associated interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) disturbance with large radial extent, probably formed by the merging of multiple shocks and transient flows, and which delivered a glancing blow to Earth. Conversely, Event 2 is accompanied by a relatively simple halo ICME with small radial extent that hit Earth more head-on.

  9. TRANSIENT GALACTIC COSMIC-RAY MODULATION DURING SOLAR CYCLE 24: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TWO PROMINENT FORBUSH DECREASE EVENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, L.-L.; Zhang, H., E-mail: zhaolingling@ucas.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China)

    2016-08-10

    Forbush decrease (FD) events are of great interest for transient galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) modulation study. In this study, we perform comparative analysis of two prominent Forbush events during cycle 24, occurring on 2012 March 8 (Event 1) and 2015 June 22 (Event 2), utilizing the measurements from the worldwide neutron monitor (NM) network. Despite their comparable magnitudes, the two Forbush events are distinctly different in terms of evolving GCR energy spectrum and energy dependence of the recovery time. The recovery time of Event 1 is strongly dependent on the median energy, compared to the nearly constant recovery time of Event 2 over the studied energy range. Additionally, while the evolutions of the energy spectra during the two FD events exhibit similar variation patterns, the spectrum of Event 2 is significantly harder, especially at the time of deepest depression. These difference are essentially related to their associated solar wind disturbances. Event 1 is associated with a complicated shock-associated interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) disturbance with large radial extent, probably formed by the merging of multiple shocks and transient flows, and which delivered a glancing blow to Earth. Conversely, Event 2 is accompanied by a relatively simple halo ICME with small radial extent that hit Earth more head-on.

  10. Modern representation of databases on the example of the Catalog of Solar Proton Events in the 23rd Cycle of Solar Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishkov, V. N.; Zabarinskaya, L. P.; Sergeeva, N. A.

    2017-11-01

    The development of studies of solar sources and their effects on the state of the near-Earth space required systematization of the corresponding information in the form of databases and catalogs for the entire time of observation of any geoeffective phenomenon that includes, if possible at the time of creation, all of the characteristics of the phenomena themselves and the sources of these phenomena on the Sun. A uniform presentation of information in the form of a series of similar catalogs that cover long time intervals is of particular importance. The large amount of information collected in such catalogs makes it necessary to use modern methods of its organization and presentation that allow a transition between individual parts of the catalog and a quick search for necessary events and their characteristics, which is implemented in the presented Catalog of Solar Proton Events in the 23rd Cycle of Solar Activity of the sequence of catalogs (six separate issues) that cover the period from 1970 to 2009 (20th-23rd solar cycles).

  11. Dermatopathology effects of simulated solar particle event radiation exposure in the porcine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanzari, Jenine K; Diffenderfer, Eric S; Hagan, Sarah; Billings, Paul C; Gridley, Daila S; Seykora, John T; Kennedy, Ann R; Cengel, Keith A

    2015-07-01

    The space environment exposes astronauts to risks of acute and chronic exposure to ionizing radiation. Of particular concern is possible exposure to ionizing radiation from a solar particle event (SPE). During an SPE, magnetic disturbances in specific regions of the Sun result in the release of intense bursts of ionizing radiation, primarily consisting of protons that have a highly variable energy spectrum. Thus, SPE events can lead to significant total body radiation exposures to astronauts in space vehicles and especially while performing extravehicular activities. Simulated energy profiles suggest that SPE radiation exposures are likely to be highest in the skin. In the current report, we have used our established miniature pig model system to evaluate the skin toxicity of simulated SPE radiation exposures that closely resemble the energy and fluence profile of the September, 1989 SPE using either conventional radiation (electrons) or proton simulated SPE radiation. Exposure of animals to electron or proton radiation led to dose-dependent increases in epidermal pigmentation, the presence of necrotic keratinocytes at the dermal-epidermal boundary and pigment incontinence, manifested by the presence of melanophages in the derm is upon histological examination. We also observed epidermal hyperplasia and a reduction in vascular density at 30 days following exposure to electron or proton simulated SPE radiation. These results suggest that the doses of electron or proton simulated SPE radiation results in significant skin toxicity that is quantitatively and qualitatively similar. Radiation-induced skin damage is often one of the first clinical signs of both acute and non-acute radiation injury where infection may occur, if not treated. In this report, histopathology analyses of acute radiation-induced skin injury are discussed. Copyright © 2015 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR). Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. [Electrical storm].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnay, C; Taieb, J; Morice, R

    2007-11-01

    Electrical storm is defined as repeated occurrence of severe ventricular arrhythmias requiring multiple cardioversions, two or more or three or more following different studies. The clinical aspect can sometimes be made of multiple, self aggravating, life threatening accesses. There are three main clinical circumstances of occurrence: in patients equipped with intracardiac defibrillators, during the acute phase of myocardial infarction and in Brugada syndrome. 10 to 15% of patients with cardiac defibrillators are subject to electrical storms in a period of two years. The causative arrhythmia is most often ventricular tachycardia than ventricular fibrillation, especially in secondary prevention and if the initial arrhythmias justifying the device was a ventricular tachycardia. Precipitaing factors are present in one third of cases, mainly acute heart failure, ionic disorders and arrhythmogenic drugs. Predictive factors are age, left ventricular ejection fractionelectrical shock in 50% of cases, antitachycardi stimulation in 30% and in 20% by association of the two. Treatment, after elimination of inappropriate shocks, is mainly based on beta-blockers and amiodarone, class I antiarrhythmics, lidocaïne or bretylium in some cases, and sedation pushed to general anesthesia in some cases. Radio-frequency ablation and even heart transplantation have been proposed in extreme cases. Quinidine has been proved efficient in cases of Brugada syndrome.

  13. Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay P. Sah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  14. Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa) Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sah, J.P.; Ross, M.S.; Ross, M.S.; Ogurcak, D.E.; Snyder, J.R.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on post fire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with under story type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pine lands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  15. Tree mortality following prescribed fire and a storm surge event in Slash Pine (pinus elliottii var. densa) forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; Ogurcak, Danielle E.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  16. Nuclear composition and energy spectra in the 1969 April 12 solar-particle event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertsch, D. L.; Fichtel, C. E.; Reames, D. V.

    1972-01-01

    Measurement of the charge composition for several of the multicharged nuclei and the energy spectra for hydrogen, helium, and medium (6 less than or equal to Z less than or equal to 9) nuclei in the Apr. 12, 1969, solar-particle event. The energy/nucleon spectral shape of the medium nuclei was again the same as that of the helium nuclei, and the ratio of these two species was consistent with the present best average of 58 plus or minus 5. By combining the results obtained here with previous work, improved estimates of the Ne/O and Mg/O values of 0.16 plus or minus 0.03 and 0.056 plus or minus 0.014, respectively, were obtained. Silicon and sulfur abundances relative to O were determined to be 0.208 plus or minus 0.008 plus or minus 0.006, respectively, and 85% confidence upper limits for Ar and Ca relative to O of 0.017 and 0.010 were obtained. Previously, these last four nuclei had only been listed as a group.

  17. LONGITUDINAL PROPERTIES OF A WIDESPREAD SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT ON 2014 FEBRUARY 25: EVOLUTION OF THE ASSOCIATED CME SHOCK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lario, D.; Kwon, R.-Y.; Vourlidas, A.; Raouafi, N. E.; Haggerty, D. K.; Ho, G. C.; Anderson, B. J. [The Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Papaioannou, A. [Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National Observatory of Athens, GR-15 236 Penteli (Greece); Gómez-Herrero, R. [Space Research Group, Physics and Mathematics Department, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, E-28871 (Spain); Dresing, N. [Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics, Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel, Kiel (Germany); Riley, P. [Predictive Science, 9990 Mesa Rim Road, Suite 170, San Diego, CA 92121 (United States)

    2016-03-01

    We investigate the solar phenomena associated with the origin of the solar energetic particle (SEP) event observed on 2014 February 25 by a number of spacecraft distributed in the inner heliosphere over a broad range of heliolongitudes. These include spacecraft located near Earth; the twin Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory spacecraft, STEREO-A and STEREO-B, located at ∼1 au from the Sun 153° west and 160° east of Earth, respectively; the MErcury Surface Space ENvironment GEochemistry and Ranging mission (at 0.40 au and 31° west of Earth); and the Juno spacecraft (at 2.11 au and 48° east of Earth). Although the footpoints of the field lines nominally connecting the Sun with STEREO-A, STEREO-B and near-Earth spacecraft were quite distant from each other, an intense high-energy SEP event with Fe-rich prompt components was observed at these three locations. The extent of the extreme-ultraviolet wave associated with the solar eruption generating the SEP event was very limited in longitude. However, the white-light shock accompanying the associated coronal mass ejection extended over a broad range of longitudes. As the shock propagated into interplanetary space it extended over at least ∼190° in longitude. The release of the SEPs observed at different longitudes occurred when the portion of the shock magnetically connected to each spacecraft was already at relatively high altitudes (≳2 R{sub ⊙} above the solar surface). The expansion of the shock in the extended corona, as opposite to near the solar surface, determined the SEP injection and SEP intensity-time profiles at different longitudes.

  18. Geomagnetically Induced Currents Around the World During the 17 March 2015 Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, B. A.; Yizengaw, E.; Pradipta, R.; Weygand, J. M.; Piersanti, M.; Pulkkinen, Antti Aleksi; Moldwin, M. B.; Norman, R.; Zhang, K.

    2016-01-01

    Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) represent a significant space weather issue for power grid and pipeline infrastructure, particularly during severe geomagnetic storms. In this study, magnetometer data collected from around the world are analyzed to investigate the GICs caused by the 2015 St. Patricks Day storm. While significant GIC activity in the high-latitude regions due to storm time substorm activity is shown for this event, enhanced GIC activity was also measured at two equatorial stations in the American and Southeast Asian sectors. This equatorial GIC activity is closely examined, and it is shown that it is present both during the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the storm sudden commencement (SSC) in Southeast Asia and during the main phase of the storm approximately 10 h later in South America. The SSC caused magnetic field variations at the equator in Southeast Asia that were twice the magnitude of those observed only a few degrees to the north, strongly indicating that the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) played a significant role. The large equatorial magnetic field variations measured in South America are also examined, and the coincident solar wind data are used to investigate the causes of the sudden changes in the EEJ approximately 10 h into the storm. From this analysis it is concluded that sudden magnetopause current increases due to increases in the solarwind dynamic pressure, and the sudden changes in the resultant magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems, are the primary drivers of equatorial GICs.

  19. Magnetic storms on Mars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne

    2011-01-01

    and typical time profile of such periods is investigated and compared to solar wind measurements at Earth. Typical durations of the events are 20–40h, and there is a tendency for large events to last longer, but a large spread in duration and intensity are found. The large and medium intensity events at Mars......Based on data from the Mars Global Surveyor magnetometer we examine periods of significantly enhanced magnetic disturbances in the martian space environment. Using almost seven years of observations during the maximum and early declining phase of the previous solar cycle the occurrence pattern...... are found to occur predominantly in association with interplanetary sector boundaries, with solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements being the most likely interplanetary driver. In addition it is found that, on time scales of months to several years, the dominant cause of global variability of the magnetic...

  20. Dose uncertainties for large solar particle events: Input spectra variability and human geometry approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townsend, Lawrence W.; Zapp, E. Neal

    1999-01-01

    The true uncertainties in estimates of body organ absorbed dose and dose equivalent, from exposures of interplanetary astronauts to large solar particle events (SPEs), are essentially unknown. Variations in models used to parameterize SPE proton spectra for input into space radiation transport and shielding computer codes can result in uncertainty about the reliability of dose predictions for these events. Also, different radiation transport codes and their input databases can yield significant differences in dose predictions, even for the same input spectra. Different results may also be obtained for the same input spectra and transport codes if different spacecraft and body self-shielding distributions are assumed. Heretofore there have been no systematic investigations of the variations in dose and dose equivalent resulting from these assumptions and models. In this work we present a study of the variability in predictions of organ dose and dose equivalent arising from the use of different parameters to represent the same incident SPE proton data and from the use of equivalent sphere approximations to represent human body geometry. The study uses the BRYNTRN space radiation transport code to calculate dose and dose equivalent for the skin, ocular lens and bone marrow using the October 1989 SPE as a model event. Comparisons of organ dose and dose equivalent, obtained with a realistic human geometry model and with the oft-used equivalent sphere approximation, are also made. It is demonstrated that variations of 30-40% in organ dose and dose equivalent are obtained for slight variations in spectral fitting parameters obtained when various data points are included or excluded from the fitting procedure. It is further demonstrated that extrapolating spectra from low energy (≤30 MeV) proton fluence measurements, rather than using fluence data extending out to 100 MeV results in dose and dose equivalent predictions that are underestimated by factors as large as 2

  1. Geomagnetic Storm Sudden Commencements

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Sudden Commencements (ssc) 1868 to present: STORM1 and STORM2 Lists: (Some text here is taken from the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy...

  2. Solar weather monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Hochedez

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time monitoring to assess quickly and reliably the severity of any potentially geoeffective solar event. Both research and forecasting could incorporate more observations in order to feed case studies and data assimilation respectively. Numerical models will result in better predictions of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP events. We review the data types available to monitor solar activity and interplanetary conditions. They come from space missions and ground observatories and range from sequences of dopplergrams, magnetograms, white-light, chromospheric, coronal, coronagraphic and radio images, to irradiance and in-situ time-series. Their role is summarized together with indications about current and future solar monitoring instruments.

  3. Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Influence of the Solar Proton Events and Ground Level Enhancement in January 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, C. H.; Marsh, D. R.; Vitt, F. M.; Roble, R. G.; Randall, C. E.; Bernath, P. F.; Funke, B.; Lopez-Puertas, M.; Versick, S.; Stiller, G. P.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Solar eruptions in early 2005 led substantial barrage of charged particles on the Earth's atmosphere during the January 16-21 period. Proton fluxes were greatly increased during these several days and led to the production ofHO(x)(H, OH, BO2)and NO(x)(N, NO, NO2), which then caused the destruction of ozone. We focus on the Northern polar region, where satellite measurements and simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3) showed large enhancements in mesospheric HO(x) and NO(x) constituents, and associated ozone reductions, due 10 these solar proton events (SPEs). The WACCM3 simulations show enhanced short-lived OH throughout the mesosphere in the 60-82.5degN latitude band due to the SPEs for most days in the Jan.16-2l,2005 period, in reasonable agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements. Mesospheric HO2 is also predicted to be increased by the SPEs, however, the modeled HO2 results are somewhat larger than the MLS measurements. These HO(x) enhancements led to huge predicted and MLS-measured ozone decreases of greater than 40% throughout most of the Northern polar mesosphere during the SPE period. Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) measurements of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) show increases throughout the stratosphere with highest enhancements of about 60 ppt y in the lowermost mesosphere over the Jan. 16-18, 2005 period due to the solar protons. WACCM3 predictions indicate H2O2 enhancements over the same time period of more than twice that amount. Measurements of nitric acid (HNO3) by both MLS and MIPAS show an increase of about 1 ppbv above background levels in the upper stratosphere during January 16-29, 2005. WACCM3 simulations show only minuscule HNO3 changes in the upper stratosphere during this time period. However due to the small loss rates during winter, polar mesospheric enhancements of NO(x) are computed to be greater than 50 ppbv during the SPE period. Computed NO

  4. Northern Hemisphere atmospheric influence of the solar proton events and ground level enhancement in January 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. H. Jackman

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Solar eruptions in early 2005 led to a substantial barrage of charged particles on the Earth's atmosphere during the 16–21 January period. Proton fluxes were greatly increased during these several days and led to the production of HOx (H, OH, HO2 and NOx (N, NO, NO2, which then caused the destruction of ozone. We focus on the Northern polar region, where satellite measurements and simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3 showed large enhancements in mesospheric HOx and NOx constituents, and associated ozone reductions, due to these solar proton events (SPEs. The WACCM3 simulations show enhanced short-lived OH and HO2 concentrations throughout the mesosphere in the 60–82.5° N latitude band due to the SPEs for most days in the 16–21 January 2005 period, somewhat higher in abundance than those observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS. These HOx enhancements led to huge predicted and MLS-measured ozone decreases of greater than 40 % throughout most of the northern polar mesosphere during the SPE period. Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS measurements of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2 show increases throughout the stratosphere with highest enhancements of about 60 pptv in the lowermost mesosphere over the 16–18 January 2005 period due to the solar protons. WACCM3 predictions indicate H2O2 enhancements over the same time period of about three times that amount. Measurements of nitric acid (HNO3 by both MLS and MIPAS show an increase of about 1 ppbv above background levels in the upper stratosphere during 16–29 January 2005. WACCM3 simulations show only minuscule HNO3 increases (<0.05 ppbv in the upper stratosphere during this time period. Polar mesospheric enhancements of NOx are computed to be greater than 50

  5. From the Sun to the Earth: impact of the 27-28 May 2003 solar events on the magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hanuise

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available During the last week of May 2003, the solar active region AR 10365 produced a large number of flares, several of which were accompanied by Coronal Mass Ejections (CME. Specifically on 27 and 28 May three halo CMEs were observed which had a significant impact on geospace. On 29 May, upon their arrival at the L1 point, in front of the Earth's magnetosphere, two interplanetary shocks and two additional solar wind pressure pulses were recorded by the ACE spacecraft. The interplanetary magnetic field data showed the clear signature of a magnetic cloud passing ACE. In the wake of the successive increases in solar wind pressure, the magnetosphere became strongly compressed and the sub-solar magnetopause moved inside five Earth radii. At low altitudes the increased energy input to the magnetosphere was responsible for a substantial enhancement of Region-1 field-aligned currents. The ionospheric Hall currents also intensified and the entire high-latitude current system moved equatorward by about 10°. Several substorms occurred during this period, some of them - but not all - apparently triggered by the solar wind pressure pulses. The storm's most notable consequences on geospace, including space weather effects, were (1 the expansion of the auroral oval, and aurorae seen at mid latitudes, (2 the significant modification of the total electron content in the sunlight high-latitude ionosphere, (3 the perturbation of radio-wave propagation manifested by HF blackouts and increased GPS signal scintillation, and (4 the heating of the thermosphere, causing increased satellite drag. We discuss the reasons why the May 2003 storm is less intense than the October-November 2003 storms, although several indicators reach similar intensities.

  6. From the Sun to the Earth: impact of the 27-28 May 2003 solar events on the magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hanuise

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available During the last week of May 2003, the solar active region AR 10365 produced a large number of flares, several of which were accompanied by Coronal Mass Ejections (CME. Specifically on 27 and 28 May three halo CMEs were observed which had a significant impact on geospace. On 29 May, upon their arrival at the L1 point, in front of the Earth's magnetosphere, two interplanetary shocks and two additional solar wind pressure pulses were recorded by the ACE spacecraft. The interplanetary magnetic field data showed the clear signature of a magnetic cloud passing ACE. In the wake of the successive increases in solar wind pressure, the magnetosphere became strongly compressed and the sub-solar magnetopause moved inside five Earth radii. At low altitudes the increased energy input to the magnetosphere was responsible for a substantial enhancement of Region-1 field-aligned currents. The ionospheric Hall currents also intensified and the entire high-latitude current system moved equatorward by about 10°. Several substorms occurred during this period, some of them - but not all - apparently triggered by the solar wind pressure pulses. The storm's most notable consequences on geospace, including space weather effects, were (1 the expansion of the auroral oval, and aurorae seen at mid latitudes, (2 the significant modification of the total electron content in the sunlight high-latitude ionosphere, (3 the perturbation of radio-wave propagation manifested by HF blackouts and increased GPS signal scintillation, and (4 the heating of the thermosphere, causing increased satellite drag. We discuss the reasons why the May 2003 storm is less intense than the October-November 2003 storms, although several indicators reach similar intensities.

  7. D-region electron density and effective recombination coefficients during twilight – experimental data and modelling during solar proton events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Osepian

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Accurate measurements of electron density in the lower D-region (below 70 km altitude are rarely made. This applies both with regard to measurements by ground-based facilities and by sounding rockets, and during both quiet conditions and conditions of energetic electron precipitation. Deep penetration into the atmosphere of high-energy solar proton fluxes (during solar proton events, SPE produces extra ionisation in the whole D-region, including the lower altitudes, which gives favourable conditions for accurate measurements using ground-based facilities. In this study we show that electron densities measured with two ground-based facilities at almost the same latitude but slightly different longitudes, provide a valuable tool for validation of model computations. The two techniques used are incoherent scatter of radio waves (by the EISCAT 224 MHz radar in Tromsø, Norway, 69.6° N, 19.3° E, and partial reflection of radio-waves (by the 2.8 MHz radar near Murmansk, Russia, 69.0° N, 35.7° E. Both radars give accurate electron density values during SPE, from