WorldWideScience

Sample records for site-wide seismic risk

  1. Tooele Army Depot Revised Final Site-Wide Ecological Risk Assessment. Volume IV

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1998-01-01

    Partial Contents: Soil samples, Biota Samples, Risk Assessment, Historic, Hazard, Herbicides, Metals, Pesticides, Dioxins, Furans, Invertebrate Data, Toxicity, Detection, Exposure, Bioaccumulation Models...

  2. Geomorphology and seismic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panizza, Mario

    1991-07-01

    The author analyses the contributions provided by geomorphology in studies suited to the assessment of seismic risk: this is defined as function of the seismic hazard, of the seismic susceptibility, and of the vulnerability. The geomorphological studies applicable to seismic risk assessment can be divided into two sectors: (a) morpho-neotectonic investigations conducted to identify active tectonic structures; (b) geomorphological and morphometric analyses aimed at identifying the particular situations that amplify or reduce seismic susceptibility. The morpho-neotectonic studies lead to the identification, selection and classification of the lineaments that can be linked with active tectonic structures. The most important geomorphological situations that can condition seismic susceptibility are: slope angle, debris, morphology, degradational slopes, paleo-landslides and underground cavities.

  3. Seismic risk perception test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Camassi, Romano; Pino, Nicola Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    The perception of risks involves the process of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of events, activities or technologies. In the natural sciences the term risk seems to be clearly defined, it means the probability distribution of adverse effects, but the everyday use of risk has different connotations (Renn, 2008). The two terms, hazards and risks, are often used interchangeably by the public. Knowledge, experience, values, attitudes and feelings all influence the thinking and judgement of people about the seriousness and acceptability of risks. Within the social sciences however the terminology of 'risk perception' has become the conventional standard (Slovic, 1987). The mental models and other psychological mechanisms which people use to judge risks (such as cognitive heuristics and risk images) are internalized through social and cultural learning and constantly moderated (reinforced, modified, amplified or attenuated) by media reports, peer influences and other communication processes (Morgan et al., 2001). Yet, a theory of risk perception that offers an integrative, as well as empirically valid, approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing". To understand the perception of risk is necessary to consider several areas: social, psychological, cultural, and their interactions. Among the various research in an international context on the perception of natural hazards, it seemed promising the approach with the method of semantic differential (Osgood, C.E., Suci, G., & Tannenbaum, P. 1957, The measurement of meaning. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press). The test on seismic risk perception has been constructed by the method of the semantic differential. To compare opposite adjectives or terms has been used a Likert's scale to seven point. The test consists of an informative part and six sections respectively dedicated to: hazard; vulnerability (home and workplace); exposed value (with reference to

  4. Risk based seismic design criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.

    1999-01-01

    In order to develop a risk based seismic design criteria the following four issues must be addressed: (1) What target annual probability of seismic induced unacceptable performance is acceptable? (2) What minimum seismic margin is acceptable? (3) Given the decisions made under Issues 1 and 2, at what annual frequency of exceedance should the safe-shutdown-earthquake (SSE) ground motion be defined? (4) What seismic design criteria should be established to reasonably achieve the seismic margin defined under Issue 2? The first issue is purely a policy decision and is not addressed in this paper. Each of the other three issues are addressed. Issues 2 and 3 are integrally tied together so that a very large number of possible combinations of responses to these two issues can be used to achieve the target goal defined under Issue 1. Section 2 lays out a combined approach to these two issues and presents three potentially attractive combined resolutions of these two issues which reasonably achieves the target goal. The remainder of the paper discusses an approach which can be used to develop seismic design criteria aimed at achieving the desired seismic margin defined in resolution of Issue 2. Suggestions for revising existing seismic design criteria to more consistently achieve the desired seismic margin are presented. (orig.)

  5. Seismic Risk Perception compared with seismic Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Pessina, Vera; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Peruzza, Laura

    2016-04-01

    The communication of natural hazards and their consequences is one of the more relevant ethical issues faced by scientists. In the last years, social studies have provided evidence that risk communication is strongly influenced by the risk perception of people. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. A theory that offers an integrative approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing. To explain risk perception, it is necessary to consider several perspectives: social, psychological and cultural perspectives and their interactions. This paper presents the results of the CATI survey on seismic risk perception in Italy, conducted by INGV researchers on funding by the DPC. We built a questionnaire to assess seismic risk perception, with a particular attention to compare hazard, vulnerability and exposure perception with the real data of the same factors. The Seismic Risk Perception Questionnaire (SRP-Q) is designed by semantic differential method, using opposite terms on a Likert scale to seven points. The questionnaire allows to obtain the scores of five risk indicators: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, People and Community, Earthquake Phenomenon. The questionnaire was administered by telephone interview (C.A.T.I.) on a statistical sample at national level of over 4,000 people, in the period January -February 2015. Results show that risk perception seems be underestimated for all indicators considered. In particular scores of seismic Vulnerability factor are extremely low compared with house information data of the respondents. Other data collected by the questionnaire regard Earthquake information level, Sources of information, Earthquake occurrence with respect to other natural hazards, participation at risk reduction activities and level of involvement. Research on risk perception aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by

  6. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  7. Seismic risk map of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.H.; Lee, Y.K.; Eum, S.H.; Yang, S.J.; Chun, M.S.

    1983-01-01

    A study on seismic hazard level in Korea has been performed and the main results of the study are summarized as follows: 1. Historians suggest that the quality of historical earthquake data may be accurate in some degree and the data should be used in seismic risk analysis. 2. The historical damage events are conformed in historical literatures and their intensities are re-evaluated by joint researchers. The maximum MM intensity of them is VIII evaluated for 17 events. 3. The relation of earthquakes to surface fault is not clear. It seems resonable to related them to tectonic provinces. 4. Statistical seismic risk analysis shows that the acceleration expected within 50O year return period is less than 0.25G when only instrumental earthquakes are used and less than 0.10G if all of instrumental and historical earthquakes are used. The acceleration in Western Coast and Kyungsang area is higher than the other regions in Korea. 5. The maximum horizontal acceleration determined by conservative method is 0.26G when historical earthquake data are used and less than 0.20G if only instrumental earthquakes are used. The return period of 0.26G is 240 years in Kyungsang province and longer in other provinces. (Author)

  8. Seismic risk map for Southeastern Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mioto, J.A.

    1984-01-01

    During the last few years, some studies regarding seismic risk were prepared for three regions of Brazil. They were carried on account of two basic interests: first, toward the seismic history and recurrence of Brazilian seismic events; second, in a way as to provide seismic parameters for the design and construction of hydro and nuclear power plants. The first seismic risk map prepared for the southeastern region was elaborated in 1979 by 6he Universidade de Brasilia (UnB-Brasilia Seismological Station). In 1981 another seismic risk map was completed on the basis of seismotectonic studies carried out for the design and construction of the Nuclear power plants of Itaorna Beach (Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro) by IPT (Mining and Applied Geology Division). In Brazil, until 1984, seismic studies concerning hydro and nuclear power plants and other civil construction of larger size did not take into account the seismic events from the point of view of probabilities of seismic recurrences. Such analysis in design is more important than the choice of a level of intensity or magnitude, or adoption of a seismicity level ased on deterministic methods. In this way, some considerations were made, concerning the use of seisms in Brazilian designs of hydro and nuclear power plants, as far as seismic analysis is concerned, recently altered over the current seismic risk panorama. (D.J.M.) [pt

  9. Risk perception versus seismic risk: An introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubeddu, Francesca

    2015-01-01

    A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it

  10. Study on structural seismic margin and probabilistic seismic risk. Development of a structural capacity-seismic risk diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Masato; Ohtori, Yasuki; Hirata, Kazuta

    2010-01-01

    Seismic margin is extremely important index and information when we evaluate and account seismic safety of critical structures, systems and components quantitatively. Therefore, it is required that electric power companies evaluate the seismic margin of each plant in back-check of nuclear power plants in Japan. The seismic margin of structures is usually defined as a structural capacity margin corresponding to design earthquake ground motion. However, there is little agreement as to the definition of the seismic margin and we have no knowledge about a relationship between the seismic margin and seismic risk (annual failure probability) which is obtained in PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). The purpose of this report is to discuss a definition of structural seismic margin and to develop a diagram which can identify a relation between seismic margin and seismic risk. The main results of this paper are described as follows: (1) We develop seismic margin which is defined based on the fact that intensity of earthquake ground motion is more appropriate than the conventional definition (i.e., the response-based seismic margin) for the following reasons: -seismic margin based on earthquake ground motion is invariant where different typed structures are considered, -stakeholders can understand the seismic margin based on the earthquake ground motion better than the response-based one. (2) The developed seismic margin-risk diagram facilitates us to judge easily whether we need to perform detailed probabilistic risk analysis or only deterministic analysis, given that the reference risk level although information on the uncertainty parameter beta is not obtained. (3) We have performed numerical simulations based on the developed method for four sites in Japan. The structural capacity-risk diagram differs depending on each location because the diagram is greatly influenced by seismic hazard information for a target site. Furthermore, the required structural capacity

  11. Seismotectonic Conditions and Seismic Risk in Gori

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varazanashvili, O.; Tsereteli, N.; Sumbadze, B.; Mukhadze, T.

    2006-01-01

    The seismic history and seismotectonic conditions of earthquake initiation are investigated in Gori and surrounding area. The main parameters of the newly discovered past earthquake at Takhtisdziri are estimated. The levels of seismic risk of 7,8 and 9 intensity scenario earthquakes estimated in Gori. Also damage of sity caused by destroying Kartli earthquake of 1920 is estimated. (author)

  12. Seismic risk maps of Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saegesser, R.; Rast, B.; Merz, H.

    1977-01-01

    Seismic Risk Maps of Switzerland have been developed under the auspices of the Swiss Federal Division on Nuclear Safety. They are primarily destined for the use of owners of future nuclear power plants. The results will be mandatory for these future sites. The results will be shown as contourmaps of equal intensities for average return periods of 500, 1 000, 10 000... years. This general form will not restrict the use of the results to nuclear power plants only, rather allows their applicability to any site or installation of public interest (such as r.a. waste deposits, hydropower plants, etc.). This follows the recommendations of the UNESCO World Conference (Paris, February 1976). In the study MSK 64 INTENSITY was chosen. The detailed scale allowed a precise handling of historical data and separates the results from continuously changing state of the art correlations to acceleration and other input motion parameters. The method used is the probabilistic theory developed by C.A. Cornell and others at MIT in the late 1960's with the program in the version of the US Geological Survey by R. McGuire. (Auth.)

  13. Seismic risk maps of Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saegesser, R.; Rast, B.; Merz, H.

    1977-01-01

    Seismic Risk Maps of Switzerland have been developed under the auspices of the Swiss Federal Division on Nuclear Safety. They are primarily destined for the use of owners of future nuclear power plants. The results will be mandatory for these future sites. The results will be shown as contourmaps of equal intensities for average return periods of 500, 1000, 10 000... years. This general form will not restrict the use of the results to nuclear power plants only, rather allows their applicability to any site or installation of public interest (such as r.a. waste deposits, hydropower plants, etc.). This follows the recommendations of the UNESCO World Conference (Paris, February 1976). In the study MSK 64 INTENSITY was chosen. The detailed scale allowed a precise handling of historical data and separates the results from continuously changing state-of-the-art correlations to acceleration and other input motion parameters. The method used is the probabilistic theory developed by C.A. Cornell and others at MIT in the late 1960's with the program in the version of the US Geological Survey by R. McGuire. In the study, the program was extended for the use of the continuous attenuation law by Sponheuer, azimuth-dependency in the attenuation relation, a quadratic intensity-frequency relation, large number of gross sources and output modifications with respect to the mapping program used. To determine the basic parameters, more than 3000 independent events in an area of approximately 240 000km 2 -Switzerland with its neighbouring parts of Italy, Austria, Germany and France- were systematically classified (and relocated where necessary)

  14. Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

  15. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  16. Research items regarding seismic residual risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    After learning the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP severe accidents in 2011, the government investigation committee proposed the effective use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and now it is required to establish new safety rules reflecting the results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and proposed severe accident measures. Since the Seismic Design Guide has been revised on September 19, 2006, JNES has been discussing seismic PRA (Levels 1-3) methods to review licensees' residual risk assessment while preparing seismic PRA models. Meanwhile, new safety standards for light water reactors are to be issued and enforced on July 2013, which require the residual risk of tsunami, in addition to earthquakes, should be lowered as much as possible. The Fukushima accidents raised the problems related to risk assessment, e.g. approaches based on multi-hazard (earthquake and tsunami), multi-unit, multi-site, and equipment's common cause failure. This fiscal year, while performing seismic and/or tsunami PRA to work on these problems, JNES picked up the equipment whose failure greatly contribute to core damage, surveyed accident management measures on those equipment as well as effectiveness to reduce core damage probability. (author)

  17. Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

    2016-05-01

    Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

  18. Evolution of a seismic risk assessment technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Cummings, G.E.

    1985-01-01

    To assist the NRC in its licensing evaluation role the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was started at LLNL in 1978. Its goal was to develop tools and data bases to evaluate the probability of earthquake caused radioactive releases from commercial nuclear power plants. The methodology was finalized in 1982 and a seismic risk assessment of the Zion Nuclear Power Plant was finished in 1983. Work continues on the study of the LaSalle Boiling Water Reactor. This paper will discuss some of the effects of the assumptions made during development of the systems analysis techniques used in SSMRP in light of the results obtained on studies to date. 5 refs

  19. Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

  20. Pickering Nuclear site wide groundwater monitoring system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeWilde, J.; Chin-Cheong, D.; Lledo, C.; Wootton, R.; Belanger, D.; Hansen, K.

    2001-01-01

    Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPG) is continuing its efforts to understand the chemical and physical characteristics of the groundwater flow systems beneath the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station (PNGS). To this end, OPG constructed a site-wide Groundwater Monitoring System (GMS) at the PNGS to provide support to other ongoing environmental investigations and to provide a means to monitor current and future groundwater environmental issues. This paper will present the results of this work, including the development of a state-of-the-art data management system for storage and retrieval of environmental data for the site, which has applications for other power generation facilities. (author)

  1. Seismic risks at Elsie Lake Main Dam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCammon, N.R.; Momenzadeh, M.; Hawson, H.H.; Nielsen, N.M.

    1991-01-01

    The Elsie Lake dams are located on Vancouver Island in an area of high seismic risk. A safety review in 1986 indicated potential deficiencies in the earthfill main dam with respect to modern earthquake design standards. A detailed field investigation program comprising drilling and penetration tests was carried out and the results used in an assessment of seismic stability. A 0.8 m thick less dense layer in the granular shell of the dam, possibly caused by wet construction conditions, would likely liquefy in a major earthquake but sufficient residual strength would likely remain to prevent catastrophic failure. The dam shell might undergo some distortion, and an assessment was initiated to determine the requirements for reservoir drawdown following an extreme earthquake to ensure the timely lowering of the reservoir for inspection and repair. It was suggested that an adequate evacuation capability would be 25% and 50% drawdown in not more than 30 and 50 days, respectively. 9 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab

  2. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  3. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  4. SEISMIC RISK CARTOGRAPHIC VISUALIZATION FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina I. Frolova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake loss estimations before future events and following strong earthquakesin emergency mode and their corresponding visualization are extremely important for properdecision on preventive measures and effective response in order to save lives and properties. The paper addresses the methodological issues of seismic risk and vulnerability assessment, mapping with GIS technology application. Requirements for simulation models,databases used at different levels, as well as ways of visualizations oriented for EmergencyManagement Agencies, as well federal and local authorities are discussed. Examples ofmapping at the different levels: global, country, region and urban one are given and theinfluence of input data uncertainties on the reliability of loss computations is analyzed.

  5. Seismic risk analysis in the German risk study phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasser, D.; Liemersdorf, J.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German risk study for nuclear power plants, phase B. First simplified analyses in phase A of the study allowed a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported, in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behavior and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to the distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications, special results for the PWR reference plant and, finally, the influence of model uncertainties

  6. Seismic risk analyses in the German Risk Study, phase B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosser, D.; Liemersdorf, H.

    1991-01-01

    The paper discusses some aspects of the seismic risk part of the German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants, Phase B. First simplified analyses in Phase A of the study allowed only a rough classification of structures and systems of the PWR reference plant according to their seismic risk contribution. These studies were extended in Phase B using improved models for the dynamic analyses of buildings, structures and components as well as for the probabilistic analyses of seismic loading, failure probabilities and event trees. The methodology of deriving probabilistic seismic load descriptions is explained and compared with the methods in Phase A of the study and in other studies. Some details of the linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses of structures are reported in order to demonstrate the influence of different assumptions for material behaviour and failure criteria. The probabilistic structural and event tree analyses are discussed with respect to distribution assumptions, acceptable simplifications and model uncertainties. Some results for the PWR reference plant are given. (orig.)

  7. Comparison of seismic margin assessment and probabilistic risk assessment in seismic IPE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.; Kassawara, R.P.

    1993-01-01

    A comparison of technical requirements and managerial issues between seismic margin assessment (SMA) and seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) in a seismic Individual Plant Examination (IPE) is presented and related to requirements for an Unresolved Safety Issue (USI) A-46 review which is required for older nuclear power plants. Advantages and disadvantages are discussed for each approach. Technical requirements reviewed for a seismic IPE include: scope of plants covered, seismic input, scope of review, selection of equipment, required experience and training of engineers, walkdown procedure, evaluation of components, relay review, containment review, quality assurance, products, documentation requirements, and closure procedure. Managerial issues discussed include regulatory acceptability, compatibility with seismic IPE, compliance with seismic IPE requirements, ease of use by utilities, and relative cost

  8. Seismic qualification of equipment by means of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Farahzad, P.; Boccio, J.L.

    1982-01-01

    Upon the sponsorship of the Equipment Qualification Branch (EQB) of NRC, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has utilized a risk-based approach for identifying, in a generic fashion, seismically risk-sensitive equipment. It is anticipated that the conclusions drawn therefrom and the methodology employed will, in part, reconcile some of the concerns dealing with the seismic qualification of equipment in operating plants. The approach taken augments an existing sensitivity analysis, based upon the WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study (RSS), by accounting for seismicity and component fragility with the Kennedy model and by essentially including the requisite seismic data presented in the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study (ZPSS). Parametrically adjusting the seismic-related variables and ascertaining their effects on overall plant risk, core-melt probability, accident sequence probability, etc., allows one to identify those seismically risk-sensitive systems and equipment. This paper describes the approach taken and highlights the results obtained thus far for a hypothetical pressurized water reactor

  9. Seismic risks posed by mine flooding

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Goldbach, OD

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available are allowed to flood. Such flooding-induced seismicity can have significant environmental, social and economic consequences, and may endanger neighbouring mines and surface communities. While fluid-induced seismicity has been observed in other settings (e...

  10. Seismic risk and heavy industrial facilities conference: proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    Summaries of over 50 papers related to seismic risk analysis were presented. The papers cover areas such as seismic input description, response of components and structures, assessment of risk and reliability including human factors, and results of integrated studies. Papers have been individually abstracted for the Energy Data Base

  11. Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

    1996-12-31

    A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  12. Assessing the seismic risk potential of South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Smoczyk, Gregory M.

    2016-01-01

    We present here a simplified approach to quantifying regional seismic risk. The seismic risk for a given region can be inferred in terms of average annual loss (AAL) that represents long-term value of earthquake losses in any one year caused from a long-term seismic hazard. The AAL are commonly measured in the form of earthquake shaking-induced deaths, direct economic impacts or indirect losses caused due to loss of functionality. In the context of South American subcontinent, the analysis makes use of readily available public data on seismicity, population exposure, and the hazard and vulnerability models for the region. The seismic hazard model was derived using available seismic catalogs, fault databases, and the hazard methodologies that are analogous to the U.S. Geological Survey’s national seismic hazard mapping process. The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s direct empirical vulnerability functions in terms of fatality and economic impact were used for performing exposure and risk analyses. The broad findings presented and the risk maps produced herein are preliminary, yet they do offer important insights into the underlying zones of high and low seismic risks in the South American subcontinent. A more detailed analysis of risk may be warranted by engaging local experts, especially in some of the high risk zones identified through the present investigation.

  13. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR: status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuang, T.Y.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Wells, J.E.; Johnson, J.J.

    1985-02-01

    The seismic risk methodology developed in the US NRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant, a pressurized water reactor (PWR). A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models was developed and analyzed. The SSMRP methodology can equally be applied to a boiling water reactor (BWR). To demonstrate its applicability, to identify fundamental differences in seismic risk between a PWR and a BWR, and to provide a basis of comparison of seismic risk between a PWR and a BWR when analyzed with comparable methodology and assumptions, a seismic risk analysis is being performed on the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant

  14. Seismic risk evaluation for high voltage air insulated substations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camensig, Carlo; Bresesti, Luca; Clementel, Stefano; Salvetti, Maurizio

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the analytical and experimental activities performed by ISMES for the evaluation of the structural reliability of electrical substations with respect to seismic events. In the following, the reference station is described along with the methods used to define the site seismic input, the analytical and experimental evaluation of the components' fragility curves and the whole station seismic risk evaluation

  15. Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, M.S.

    1978-12-01

    The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

  16. Seismic risk analysis for General Electric Plutonium Facility, Pleasanton, California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    This report presents the results of a seismic risk analysis that focuses on all possible sources of seismic activity, with the exception of the postulated Verona Fault. The best estimate curve indicates that the Vallecitos facility will experience 30% g with a return period of roughly 130 years and 60% g with a return period of roughly 700 years

  17. Seismicity and earthquake risk in western Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. COSENTINO

    1978-06-01

    Full Text Available The seismicity and the earthquake risk in Western Sicily are here
    evaluated on the basis of the experimental data referring to the historical
    and instrumentally recorded earthquakes in this area (from 1248
    up to 1968, which have been thoroughly collected, analyzed, tested and
    normalized in order to assure the quasi-stationarity of the series of
    events.
    The approximated magnitude values — obtained by means of a compared
    analysis of the magnitude and epicentral intensity values of the
    latest events — have allowed to study the parameters of the frequency-
    magnitude relation with both the classical exponential model and
    the truncated exponential one previously proposed by the author.
    So, the basic parameters, including the maximum possible regional
    magnitude, have been estimated by means of different procedures, and
    their behaviours have been studied as functions of the threshold magnitude.

  18. Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA), approach and results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, R.D.

    1995-01-01

    During the past 15 years there have been over 30 Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) and Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessments (SPSAs) conducted of Western Nuclear Power Plants, principally of US design. In this paper PRA and PSA are used interchangeably as the overall process is essentially the same. Some similar assessments have been done for reactors in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Switzerland and Slovenia. These plants were also principally US supplied or built under US license. Since the restructuring of the governments in former Soviet Bloc countries, there has been grave concern regarding the safety of the reactors in these countries. To date there has been considerable activity in conducting partial seismic upgrades but the overall quantification of risk has not been pursued to the depth that it has in Western countries. This paper summarizes the methodology for Seismic PRA/PSA and compares results of two partially completed and two completed PRAs of soviet designed reactors to results from earlier PRAs on US Reactors. A WWER 440 and a WWER 1000 located in low seismic activity regions have completed PRAs and results show the seismic risk to be very low for both designs. For more active regions, partially completed PRAs of a WWER 440 and WWER 1000 located at the same site show the WWER 440 to have much greater seismic risk than the WWER 1000 plant. The seismic risk from the 1000 MW plant compares with the high end of seismic risk for earlier seismic PRAs in the US. Just as for most US plants, the seismic risk appears to be less than the risk from internal events if risk is measured is terms of mean core damage frequency. However, due to the lack of containment for the earlier WWER 440s, the risk to the public may be significantly greater due to the more probable scenario of an early release. The studies reported have not taken the accident sequences beyond the stage of core damage hence the public heath risk ratios are speculative. (author)

  19. A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Maggiò, F.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.

    2008-07-01

    The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

  20. A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.; Maggio, F.

    2008-01-01

    The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

  1. Progressive Seismic Failure, Seismic Gap, and Great Seismic Risk across the Densely Populated North China Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, A.; Yu, X.; Shen, Z.

    2014-12-01

    Although the seismically active North China basin has the most complete written records of pre-instrumentation earthquakes in the world, this information has not been fully utilized for assessing potential earthquake hazards of this densely populated region that hosts ~200 million people. In this study, we use the historical records to document the earthquake migration pattern and the existence of a 180-km seismic gap along the 600-km long right-slip Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian (THC) fault zone that cuts across the North China basin. The newly recognized seismic gap, which is centered at Tianjin with a population of 11 million people and ~120 km from Beijing (22 million people) and Tangshan (7 million people), has not been ruptured in the past 1000 years by M≥6 earthquakes. The seismic migration pattern in the past millennium suggests that the epicenters of major earthquakes have shifted towards this seismic gap along the THC fault, which implies that the 180- km gap could be the site of the next great earthquake with M≈7.6 if it is ruptured by a single event. Alternatively, the seismic gap may be explained by aseismic creeping or seismic strain transfer between active faults.

  2. Probabilistic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of stone masonry structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abo El Ezz, Ahmad

    Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for

  3. Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

  4. Risk insights from seismic margin reviews

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budnitz, R.J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses the information that has been derived from the three seismic-margin reviews conducted so far, and the information that is potentially available from using the seismic-margin method more generally. There are two different methodologies for conducting seismic margin reviews of nuclear power plants, one developed under NRC sponsorship and one developed under sponsorship of the Electric Power Research Institute. Both methodologies will be covered in this paper. The paper begins with a summary of the steps necessary to complete a margin review, and will then outline the key technical difficulties that need to be addressed. After this introduction, the paper covers the safety and operational insights derived from the three seismic-margin reviews already completed: the NRC-sponsored review at Maine Yankee; the EPRI-sponsored review at Catawba; and the joint EPRI/NRC/utility effort at Hatch. The emphasis is on engineering insights, with attention to the aspects of the reviews that are easiest to perform and that provide the most readily available insights

  5. Validation of seismic probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, B.

    1994-01-01

    A seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear plant requires identification and information regarding the seismic hazard at the plant site, dominant accident sequences leading to core damage, and structure and equipment fragilities. Uncertainties are associated with each of these ingredients of a PRA. Sources of uncertainty due to seismic hazard and assumptions underlying the component fragility modeling may be significant contributors to uncertainty in estimates of core damage probability. Design and construction errors also may be important in some instances. When these uncertainties are propagated through the PRA, the frequency distribution of core damage probability may span three orders of magnitude or more. This large variability brings into question the credibility of PRA methods and the usefulness of insights to be gained from a PRA. The sensitivity of accident sequence probabilities and high-confidence, low probability of failure (HCLPF) plant fragilities to seismic hazard and fragility modeling assumptions was examined for three nuclear power plants. Mean accident sequence probabilities were found to be relatively insensitive (by a factor of two or less) to: uncertainty in the coefficient of variation (logarithmic standard deviation) describing inherent randomness in component fragility; truncation of lower tail of fragility; uncertainty in random (non-seismic) equipment failures (e.g., diesel generators); correlation between component capacities; and functional form of fragility family. On the other hand, the accident sequence probabilities, expressed in the form of a frequency distribution, are affected significantly by the seismic hazard modeling, including slopes of seismic hazard curves and likelihoods assigned to those curves

  6. Importance and sensitivity of parameters affecting the Zion Seismic Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, L.L.; O'Connell, W.J.

    1985-06-01

    This report presents the results of a study on the importance and sensitivity of structures, systems, equipment, components and design parameters used in the Zion Seismic Risk Calculations. This study is part of the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) supported by the NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The objective of this study is to provide the NRC with results on the importance and sensitivity of parameters used to evaluate seismic risk. These results can assist the NRC in making decisions dealing with the allocation of research resources on seismic issues. This study uses marginal analysis in addition to importance and sensitivity analysis to identify subject areas (input parameter areas) for improvements that reduce risk, estimate how much the improvement dfforts reduce risk, and rank the subject areas for improvements. Importance analysis identifies the systems, components, and parameters that are important to risk. Sensitivity analysis estimates the change in risk per unit improvement. Marginal analysis indicates the reduction in risk or uncertainty for improvement effort made in each subject area. The results described in this study were generated using the SEISIM (Systematic Evaluation of Important Safety Improvement Measures) and CHAIN computer codes. Part 1 of the SEISIM computer code generated the failure probabilities and risk values. Part 2 of SEISIM, along with the CHAIN computer code, generated the importance and sensitivity measures

  7. Importance and sensitivity of parameters affecting the Zion Seismic Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George, L.L.; O' Connell, W.J.

    1985-06-01

    This report presents the results of a study on the importance and sensitivity of structures, systems, equipment, components and design parameters used in the Zion Seismic Risk Calculations. This study is part of the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) supported by the NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The objective of this study is to provide the NRC with results on the importance and sensitivity of parameters used to evaluate seismic risk. These results can assist the NRC in making decisions dealing with the allocation of research resources on seismic issues. This study uses marginal analysis in addition to importance and sensitivity analysis to identify subject areas (input parameter areas) for improvements that reduce risk, estimate how much the improvement dfforts reduce risk, and rank the subject areas for improvements. Importance analysis identifies the systems, components, and parameters that are important to risk. Sensitivity analysis estimates the change in risk per unit improvement. Marginal analysis indicates the reduction in risk or uncertainty for improvement effort made in each subject area. The results described in this study were generated using the SEISIM (Systematic Evaluation of Important Safety Improvement Measures) and CHAIN computer codes. Part 1 of the SEISIM computer code generated the failure probabilities and risk values. Part 2 of SEISIM, along with the CHAIN computer code, generated the importance and sensitivity measures.

  8. Enhancing the seismic margin review methodology to obtain risk insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budnitz, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses methods for obtaining risk insights from the seismic margin review (SMR) methodology. The SMR methodology was originally developed in 1984-1987 with the objective of analyzing an individual nuclear power plant to ascertain whether the plant has the ability to withstand earthquakes substantially beyond the design-basis earthquake without suffering a core-damage accident. Recently, in the context of Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Individual Plant Evaluation for External Events (IPEEE) program, the SMR methodology has been developed further by NRC to allow plants to identify plant-specific vulnerabilities (in the IPEEE sense) to seismic events. The objective of these enhancements has been to provide a methodology for IPEEE seismic review that is substantially less expensive than a full-scope seismic PRA, but that achieves the IPEEE's vulnerability-search objectives. In this paper, the steps involved in the enhanced methodology are discussed

  9. Comparison between seismic and domestic risk in moderate seismic hazard prone region: the Grenoble City (France test site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dunand

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available France has a moderate level of seismic activity, characterized by diffuse seismicity, sometimes experiencing earthquakes of a magnitude of more than 5 in the most active zones. In this seismicity context, Grenoble is a city of major economic and social importance. However, earthquakes being rare, public authorities and the decision makers are only vaguely committed to reducing seismic risk: return periods are long and local policy makers do not have much information available. Over the past 25 yr, a large number of studies have been conducted to improve our knowledge of seismic hazard in this region. One of the decision-making concerns of Grenoble's public authorities, as managers of a large number of public buildings, is to know not only the seismic-prone regions, the variability of seismic hazard due to site effects and the city's overall vulnerability, but also the level of seismic risk and exposure for the entire city, also compared to other natural or/and domestic hazards. Our seismic risk analysis uses a probabilistic approach for regional and local hazards and the vulnerability assessment of buildings. Its applicability to Grenoble offers the advantage of being based on knowledge acquired by previous projects conducted over the years. This paper aims to compare the level of seismic risk with that of other risks and to introduce the notion of risk acceptability in order to offer guidance in the management of seismic risk. This notion of acceptability, which is now part of seismic risk consideration for existing buildings in Switzerland, is relevant in moderately seismic-prone countries like France.

  10. Seismic isolation of plants at risk of a severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forni, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    More and more devastating earthquakes struck every year our planet. Many of these, though occurring in areas considered at high risk of earthquakes, far exceed the levels required by law. The industrial plants subjected to risk of severe accident, in particular petrochemical and nuclear power plants, are particularly exposed to this risk because of the number and the complexity of the structures and critical components of which they are composed. For this type of structures, anti-seismic techniques able to provide complete protection, even in case of unforeseen events, are needed. Seismic isolation is certainly the most promising technology of modern antiseismic as it allows not only to significantly reduce the dynamic load acting on the structures in case of seismic attack, but to provide safety margins against violent earthquakes, exceeding the assumed maximum design limit. [it

  11. Development of seismic risk analysis methodologies at JAERI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, T.; Abe, K.; Ebisawa, K.; Oikawa, T.

    1988-01-01

    The usefulness of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is recognized worldwidely for balanced design and regulation of nuclear power plants. In Japan, the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been engaged in developing methodologies necessary for carrying out PSA. The research and development program was started in 1980. In those days the effort was only for internal initiator PSA. In 1985 the program was expanded so as to include external event analysis. Although this expanded program is to cover various external initiators, the current effort is dedicated for seismic risk analysis. There are three levels of seismic PSA, similarly to internal initiator PSA: Level 1: Evaluation of core damage frequency, Level 2: Evaluation of radioactive release frequency and source terms, and Level 3: Evaluation of environmental consequence. In the JAERI's program, only the methodologies for level 1 seismic PSA are under development. The methodology development for seismic risk analysis is divided into two phases. The Phase I study is to establish a whole set of simple methodologies based on currently available data. In the Phase II, Sensitivity study will be carried out to identify the parameters whose uncertainty may result in lage uncertainty in seismic risk, and For such parameters, the methodology will be upgraded. Now the Phase I study has almost been completed. In this report, outlines of the study and some of its outcomes are described

  12. Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chiaramonte, Laura [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Daley, Thomas M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-01-28

    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO2-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk

  13. Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison

    2018-01-01

    We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best

  14. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed

  15. Destructiveness criteria for seismic risk evaluation of nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saragoni, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    Two criteria of destructiveness for seismic risk evaluation of nuclear power plant are presented. The first one is a simple linear criterion that allows to compute average response spectra in terms of earthquake accelerogram characteristics. The second defines the destructiveness potential factor P D which measures the capacity of earthquake to produce nonlinear damage. This second criterion that shows large differences of destructiveness capacity for earthquake accelerograms of different seismic environment, specially between subductive and transcursive, is strongly recommended. (author). 8 refs., 1 fig. 1 tab

  16. A methodology for assessment seismic risk in PSAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jae, Moo Sung

    2001-01-01

    This paper suggested a new framework for assessing seismic risk in PSAs. The framework used the concepts of requirement and achievement in the reliability physics. The quantified correlation which is a function of the requirement variable (hazard curve) and the achievement variable (fragility curve) results in a quantity, the unconditional frequency of exceeding a damage lelvel. This framework can be applied to any other external safety assessment, such as Fire and Flood Risk in PSAs

  17. Seismic fragilities for nuclear power plant risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.; Ravindra, M.K.

    1983-01-01

    Seismic fragilities of critical structures and equipment are developed as families of conditional failure frequency curves plotted against peak ground acceleration. The procedure is based on available data combined with judicious extrapolation of design information on plant structures and equipment. Representative values of fragility parameters for typical modern nuclear power plants are provided. Based on the fragility evaluation for about a dozen nuclear power plants, it is proposed that unnecessary conservatism existing in current seismic design practice could be removed by properly accounting for inelastic energy absorption capabilities of structures. The paper discusses the key contributors to seismic risk and the significance of possible correlation between component failures and potential design and construction errors

  18. Seismic risk analysis for the Westinghouse Electric facility, Cheswick, Pennsylvania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    This report presents the results of a detailed seismic risk analysis of the Westinghouse Electric plutonium fuel development facility at Cheswick, Pennsylvania. This report focuses on earthquakes. The historical seismic record was established after a review of available literature, consultation with operators of local seismic arrays and examination of appropriate seismic data bases. Because of the aseismicity of the region around the site, an analysis different from the conventional closest approach in a tectonic province was adapted. Earthquakes as far from the site as 1,000 km were included, as were the possibility of earthquakes at the site. In addition, various uncertainties in the input were explicitly considered in the analysis. For example, allowance was made for both the uncertainty in predicting maximum possible earthquakes in the region and the effect of the dispersion of data about the best fit attenuation relation. The attenuation relationship is derived from two of the most recent, advanced studies relating earthquake intensity reports and acceleration. Results of the risk analysis, which include a Bayesian estimate of the uncertainties, are presented as return period accelerations. The best estimate curve indicates that the Westinghouse facility will experience 0.05 g every 220 years and 0.10 g every 1400 years. The accelerations are very insensitive to the details of the source region geometries or the historical earthquake statistics in each region and each of the source regions contributes almost equally to the cumulative risk at the site

  19. Intelligent seismic risk mitigation system on structure building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryanita, R.; Maizir, H.; Yuniorto, E.; Jingga, H.

    2018-01-01

    Indonesia located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, is one of the highest-risk seismic zone in the world. The strong ground motion might cause catastrophic collapse of the building which leads to casualties and property damages. Therefore, it is imperative to properly design the structural response of building against seismic hazard. Seismic-resistant building design process requires structural analysis to be performed to obtain the necessary building responses. However, the structural analysis could be very difficult and time consuming. This study aims to predict the structural response includes displacement, velocity, and acceleration of multi-storey building with the fixed floor plan using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method based on the 2010 Indonesian seismic hazard map. By varying the building height, soil condition, and seismic location in 47 cities in Indonesia, 6345 data sets were obtained and fed into the ANN model for the learning process. The trained ANN can predict the displacement, velocity, and acceleration responses with up to 96% of predicted rate. The trained ANN architecture and weight factors were later used to build a simple tool in Visual Basic program which possesses the features for prediction of structural response as mentioned previously.

  20. Cities at risk: status of Italian planning system in reducing seismic and hydrogeological risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grazia Di Giovanni

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Italy and its urban systems are under high seismic and hydrogeological risks. The awareness about the role of human activities in the genesis of disasters is achieved in the scientific debate, as well as the role of urban and regional planning in reducing risks. The paper reviews the state of Italian major cities referred to hydrogeological and seismic risk by: 1 extrapolating data and maps about seismic hazard and landslide risk concerning cities with more than 50.000 inhabitants and metropolitan contexts, and 2 outlining how risk reduction is framed in Italian planning system (at national and regional levels. The analyses of available data and the review of the normative framework highlight the existing gaps in addressing risk reduction: nevertheless a wide knowledge about natural risks afflicting Italian territory and an articulated regulatory framework, the available data about risks are not exhaustive, and risk reduction policies and multidisciplinary pro-active approaches are only partially fostered and applied.

  1. A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulser-Piggott, Roxane; Bowman, Gary; Hughes, Martin

    2017-10-11

    A better understanding of the uncertainty that exists in models used for seismic risk assessment is critical to improving risk-based decisions pertaining to earthquake safety. Current models estimating the probability of collapse of a building do not consider comprehensively the nature and impact of uncertainty. This article presents a model framework to enhance seismic risk assessment and thus gives decisionmakers a fuller understanding of the nature and limitations of the estimates. This can help ensure that risks are not over- or underestimated and the value of acquiring accurate data is appreciated fully. The methodology presented provides a novel treatment of uncertainties in input variables, their propagation through the model, and their effect on the results. The study presents ranges of possible annual collapse probabilities for different case studies on buildings in different parts of the world, exposed to different levels of seismicity, and with different vulnerabilities. A global sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the significance of uncertain variables. Two key outcomes are (1) that the uncertainty in ground-motion conversion equations has the largest effect on the uncertainty in the calculation of annual collapse probability; and (2) the vulnerability of a building appears to have an effect on the range of annual collapse probabilities produced, i.e., the level of uncertainty in the estimate of annual collapse probability, with less vulnerable buildings having a smaller uncertainty. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Seismic Risk Assessment of Italian Seaports Using GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartolomei, Anna; Corigliano, Mirko; Lai, Carlo G.

    2008-01-01

    Seaports are crucial elements in the export and import of goods and/or on the flow of travellers in the tourism industry of many industrialised nations included Italy. Experience gained from recent earthquakes (e.g. 1989 Loma Prieta in USA, 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu and 2003 Tokachi-Oki in Japan) have dramatically demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of seaport structures and the severe damage that can be caused by ground shaking. In Italy, the Department of Civil Protection has funded a research project to develop a methodology for the seismic design of new marginal wharves and assessment of existing structures at seaports located in areas of medium or high seismicity. This paper shows part of the results of this research project, currently underway, with particular reference to the seismic risk assessment through an interactive, geographically referenced database (GIS). Standard risk assessment have been carried out for the Gioia Tauro port in Calabria (Italy) using the empirical curves implemented by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS, 2004)

  3. Seismic Risk Assessment of Italian Seaports Using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolomei, Anna; Corigliano, Mirko; Lai, Carlo G.

    2008-07-01

    Seaports are crucial elements in the export and import of goods and/or on the flow of travellers in the tourism industry of many industrialised nations included Italy. Experience gained from recent earthquakes (e.g. 1989 Loma Prieta in USA, 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu and 2003 Tokachi-Oki in Japan) have dramatically demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of seaport structures and the severe damage that can be caused by ground shaking. In Italy, the Department of Civil Protection has funded a research project to develop a methodology for the seismic design of new marginal wharves and assessment of existing structures at seaports located in areas of medium or high seismicity. This paper shows part of the results of this research project, currently underway, with particular reference to the seismic risk assessment through an interactive, geographically referenced database (GIS). Standard risk assessment have been carried out for the Gioia Tauro port in Calabria (Italy) using the empirical curves implemented by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS, 2004).

  4. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  5. Risk assessment to determine the advisability of seismic trip systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cummings, G.E.; Wells, J.E.

    1977-01-01

    Seismic trip (scram) systems have been used for many years on certain research, test, and production reactors, but not on commercial power reactors. An assessment is made of the risks associated with the presence and absence of such trip systems on power reactors. An attempt was made to go beyond the reactor per se and to consider the risks to society as a whole; for example, the advantages of tripping to avoid an earthquake-caused accident were weighed against the disadvantages associated with interrupting electric power in a time when it would be needed for emergency services. The comparative risk assessment was performed by means of fault tree analysis

  6. Magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes in relation to seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, R.D.

    1989-01-01

    Estimating the frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes on a regional basis is an important task in estimating seismic risk at a construction site. Analysis of global earthquake data provides an insight into the magnitudes frequency relationship in a statistical manner. It turns out that, whereas a linear relationship between the logarithm of earthquake occurrence rates and the corresponding earthquake magnitudes fits well in the magnitude range between 5 and 7, a second degree polynomial in M, the earthquake magnitude provides a better description of the frequencies of earthquakes in a much wider range of magnitudes. It may be possible to adopt magnitude frequency relation for regions, for which adequate earthquake data are not available, to carry out seismic risk calculations. (author). 32 refs., 8 tabs., 7 figs

  7. New "Risk-Targeted" Seismic Maps Introduced into Building Codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luco, Nicholas; Garrett, B.; Hayes, J.

    2012-01-01

    Throughout most municipalities of the United States, structural engineers design new buildings using the U.S.-focused International Building Code (IBC). Updated editions of the IBC are published every 3 years. The latest edition (2012) contains new "risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake" (MCER) ground motion maps, which are enabling engineers to incorporate a more consistent and better defined level of seismic safety into their building designs.

  8. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  9. A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg, South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebenberg, Keagen; Smit, Ansie; Coetzee, Serena; Kijko, Andrzej

    2017-08-01

    The majority of seismic activity in South Africa is related to extensive mining operations, usually in close proximity to densely populated areas where a relatively weak seismic event could cause damage. Despite a significant decrease in mining operations in the Witwatersrand area, the number of seismic events appears to be increasing and is attributed to the acid mine drainage problem. The increased seismicity is raising concern amongst disaster management centres and in the insurance industry. A better understanding is required of the vulnerability and the size of the potential loss of people and infrastructure in densely populated Johannesburg and its surrounding areas. Results of a deterministic seismic risk, vulnerability, and loss assessment are presented by making use of a geographic information system (GIS). The results illustrate the benefits of using GIS and contribute to a better understanding of the risk, which can assist in improving disaster preparedness.

  10. Extreme seismicity and disaster risks: Hazard versus vulnerability (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.

    2013-12-01

    Although the extreme nature of earthquakes has been known for millennia due to the resultant devastation from many of them, the vulnerability of our civilization to extreme seismic events is still growing. It is partly because of the increase in the number of high-risk objects and clustering of populations and infrastructure in the areas prone to seismic hazards. Today an earthquake may affect several hundreds thousand lives and cause significant damage up to hundred billion dollars; it can trigger an ecological catastrophe if occurs in close vicinity to a nuclear power plant. Two types of extreme natural events can be distinguished: (i) large magnitude low probability events, and (ii) the events leading to disasters. Although the first-type events may affect earthquake-prone countries directly or indirectly (as tsunamis, landslides etc.), the second-type events occur mainly in economically less-developed countries where the vulnerability is high and the resilience is low. Although earthquake hazards cannot be reduced, vulnerability to extreme events can be diminished by monitoring human systems and by relevant laws preventing an increase in vulnerability. Significant new knowledge should be gained on extreme seismicity through observations, monitoring, analysis, modeling, comprehensive hazard assessment, prediction, and interpretations to assist in disaster risk analysis. The advanced disaster risk communication skill should be developed to link scientists, emergency management authorities, and the public. Natural, social, economic, and political reasons leading to disasters due to earthquakes will be discussed.

  11. Vrancea earthquakes. Specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2005-01-01

    natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses of specific action to mitigate the seismic risks from strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key to future development projects, including: - Early warning system for industrial facilities; - Short and long term prediction program of strong Vrancea earthquakes; - Seismic hazard map of Romania; - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities; - Shake map; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding disasters. The quality of life and the security of infrastructure (including human services, civil and industrial structures, financial infrastructure, information transmission and processing systems) in every nation are increasingly vulnerable to disasters caused by events that have geological, atmospheric, hydrologic, and technological origins. As UN Secretary General Kofi Annan pointed out, 'Building a culture of prevention is not easy. While the costs of prevention have to be paid in the present, its benefits lie in a distant future'. In other words: Prevention pays off. This may not always become apparent immediately, but, in the long run, the benefits from prevention measures will always outweigh their costs by far. Romania is an earthquake prone area and these main specific actions are really contributing to seismic risk mitigation. These specific actions are provided for in Law nr. 372/March 18,2004 -'The National Program of Seismic Risk Management'. (authors)

  12. Level-1 seismic probabilistic risk assessment for a PWR plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondo, Keisuke; Nishio, Masahide; Fujimoto, Haruo; Ichitsuka, Akihiro

    2014-01-01

    In Japan, revised Seismic Design Guidelines for the domestic light water reactors was published on September 19, 2006. These new guidelines have introduced the purpose to confirm that residual risk resulting from earthquake that exceeds the design limit seismic ground motion (Ss) is sufficiently small, based on the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) method, in addition to conventional deterministic design base methodology. In response to this situation, JNES had been working to improve seismic PRA (SPRA) models for individual domestic light water reactors. In case of PWR in Japan, total of 24 plants were grouped into 11 categories to develop individual SPRA model. The new regulatory rules against the Fukushima dai-ichi nuclear power plants' severe accidents occurred on March 11, 2011, are going to be enforced in July 2013 and utilities are necessary to implement additional safety measures to avoid and mitigate severe accident occurrence due to external events such as earthquake and tsunami, by referring to the results of severe accident study including SPRA. In this paper a SPRA model development for a domestic 3-loop PWR plant as part of the above-mentioned 11 categories is described. We paid special attention to how to categorize initiating events that are specific to seismic phenomena and how to confirm the effect of the simultaneous failure probability calculation model for the multiple components on the result of core damage frequency evaluation. Simultaneous failure probability for multiple components has been evaluated by power multiplier method. Then tentative level-1 seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been performed by the developed SPSA model with seismic hazard and fragility data. The base case was evaluated under the condition with calculated fragility data and conventional power multiplier. The difference in CDF between the case of conventional power multiplier and that of power multiplier=1 (complete dependence) was estimated to be

  13. Seismic risk evaluation within the technology neutral framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, B.C.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine seismic risk within the Technology Neutral Framework (TNF). ► We find that the risk goals in the TNF to be stringent compared with current goals. ► We note that the current fleet reactors would not meet the TNF goals. ► We recommend that an initiating frequency cutoff of 10 −5 per year be use in evaluating seismic risk. - Abstract: The NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has proposed a risk-informed and performance-based licensing process that is referred to as the technology neutral framework (TNF). In the TNF, licensing basis events (LBEs), determined using probabilistic risk assessment methods, take the place of design basis accidents. These LBEs are constructed by grouping together accident sequences with similar phenomenology. All event sequences with a mean frequency greater than 10 −7 per reactor year are to be considered as part of the licensing basis. Imposing such a limit would require that earthquakes with a mean return period of ten million years be considered as part of the licensing basis. It is difficult to get seismic hazards (i.e., ground accelerations) from expert seismologists at such low frequencies. This is because it is difficult or impossible to confidently say what the seismic hazard might be at these extremely low frequencies. A linear extrapolation in log-log space of hazard curves at the Clinton site down to 10 −7 per year leads to a peak ground acceleration of about 4.5 g. A Weibull distribution is also used to fit the curve leading to a peak ground acceleration of about 2.6 g. These extrapolations demonstrate the extreme nature of rare earthquakes. Even when seismic isolation is implemented, the TNF goal is not met. The problem appears to be that there is no limit on initiating event frequency in the TNF. Demonstrating that a design meets the goals of the TNF would be nearly impossible. A frequency limit for earthquakes could be imposed at a frequency of about 10 −5 per year to focus on

  14. Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2005-01-01

    Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, M w = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, M w 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, M w = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, M w = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be M w = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated

  15. Assessment of wind turbine seismic risk : existing literature and simple study of tower moment demand.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prowell, Ian (University of California, San Diego, CA); Veers, Paul S.

    2009-03-01

    Various sources of risk exist for all civil structures, one of which is seismic risk. As structures change in scale, the magnitude of seismic risk changes relative to risk from other sources. This paper presents an introduction to seismic hazard as applied to wind turbine structures. The existing design methods and research regarding seismic risk for wind turbines is then summarized. Finally a preliminary assessment is made based on current guidelines to understand how tower moment demand scales as rated power increases. Potential areas of uncertainty in the application of the current guidelines are summarized.

  16. Taking into account seismic risk on glove boxes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ladurelle, Marie; Philipponneau, Yannick

    2005-01-01

    Built in 1981, the LEFCA is a Basic Nuclear Facility (BNF) in which experimental plutonium based fuels are produced and characterised in about a hundred Gloves Boxes (GB). Many safety rules are required, especially those concerning seismic risk. In order to prepare the December 2003 safety reconsideration, the following methodology has been proposed so that GB might resist the Safe Shutdown Earthquake. 1) The determination of a safety target: the GB static containment. 2) The realisation of an ''in situ'' assessment: the definition of several classes of GB, vibrating table tests and the modelling of the GB behaviour with seismic solicitations, 3) A strength diagnosis for equipment: filters, connecting tunnels and pipes holding. 4) A proposal for further strengthening modifications if necessary : fixing the frame, interlocking GB and the frame, taking internal or external GB missiles into account. This process has contributed to a reduction in the radiological potential seismic impact for the neighbouring populations. We shall present the implemented methodology and the strengthening works that have been approved by Safety Authorities. Reinforcement modifications will begin in 2004. (Author)

  17. Taking into account seismic risk on glove boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ladurelle, Marie; Philipponneau, Yannick

    2005-01-01

    Built in 1981, the LEFCA is a Basic Nuclear Facility (BNF) in which experimental plutonium based fuels are produced and characterised in about a hundred Gloves Boxes (GB). Many safety rules are required, especially those concerning seismic risk. In order to prepare the December 2003 safety reconsideration, the following methodology has been proposed so that GB might resist the Safe Shutdown Earthquake. 1) The determination of a safety target: the GB static containment. 2) The realisation of an ''in situ'' assessment: the definition of several classes of GB, vibrating table tests and the modelling of the GB behaviour with seismic solicitations, 3) A strength diagnosis for equipment: filters, connecting tunnels and pipes holding. 4) A proposal for further strengthening modifications if necessary : fixing the frame, interlocking GB and the frame, taking internal or external GB missiles into account. This process has contributed to a reduction in the radiological potential seismic impact for the neighbouring populations. We shall present the implemented methodology and the strengthening works that have been approved by Safety Authorities. Reinforcement modifications will begin in 2004. (Author)

  18. Development of component failure data for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fray, R.R.; Moulia, T.A.

    1981-01-01

    This paper describes the quantification and utilization of seismic failure data used in the Diablo Canyon Seismic Risk Study. A single variable representation of earthquake severity that uses peak horizontal ground acceleration to characterize earthquake severity was employed. The use of a multiple variable representation would allow direct consideration of vertical accelerations and the spectral nature of earthquakes but would have added such complexity that the study would not have been feasible. Vertical accelerations and spectral nature were indirectly considered because component failure data were derived from design analyses, qualification tests and engineering judgment that did include such considerations. Two types of functions were used to describe component failure probabilities. Ramp functions were used for components, such as piping and structures, qualified by stress analysis. 'Anchor points' for ramp functions were selected by assuming a zero probability of failure at code allowable stress levels and unity probability of failure at ultimate stress levels. The accelerations corresponding to allowable and ultimate stress levels were determined by conservatively assuming a linear relationship between seismic stress and ground acceleration. Step functions were used for components, such as mechanical and electrical equipment, qualified by testing. Anchor points for step functions were selected by assuming a unity probability of failure above the qualification acceleration. (orig./HP)

  19. Coupling mode-destination accessibility with seismic risk assessment to identify at-risk communities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Mahalia; Baker, Jack W.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a framework for coupling mode-destination accessibility with quantitative seismic risk assessment to identify communities at high risk for travel disruptions after an earthquake. Mode-destination accessibility measures the ability of people to reach destinations they desire. We use a probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure, including a stochastic set of earthquake events, ground-motion intensity maps, damage maps, and realizations of traffic and accessibility impacts. For a case study of the San Francisco Bay Area, we couple our seismic risk framework with a practical activity-based traffic model. As a result, we quantify accessibility risk probabilistically by community and household type. We find that accessibility varies more strongly as a function of travelers' geographic location than as a function of their income class, and we identify particularly at-risk communities. We also observe that communities more conducive to local trips by foot or bike are predicted to be less impacted by losses in accessibility. This work shows the potential to link quantitative risk assessment methodologies with high-resolution travel models used by transportation planners. Quantitative risk metrics of this type should have great utility for planners working to reduce risk to a region's infrastructure systems. - Highlights: • We couple mode-destination accessibility with probabilistic seismic risk assessment. • Results identify communities at high risk for post-earthquake travel disruptions. • Accessibility varies more as a function of home location than by income. • Our model predicts reduced accessibility risk for more walking-friendly communities.

  20. Seismic risk maps of Switzerland; description of the probabilistic method and discussion of some input parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer-Rosa, D.; Merz, H.A.

    1976-01-01

    The probabilistic model used in a seismic risk mapping project for Switzerland is presented. Some of its advantages and limitations are spelled out. In addition some earthquake parameters which should be carefully investigated before using them in a seismic risk analysis are discussed

  1. 76 FR 57767 - Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-16

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0204] Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for Operating Reactors AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission... FR 54507), that requested public comment on Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011- XX: Seismic Risk...

  2. Assessment of the impact of degraded shear wall stiffnesses on seismic plant risk and seismic design loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klamerus, E.W.; Bohn, M.P.; Johnson, J.J.; Asfura, A.P.; Doyle, D.J.

    1994-02-01

    Test results sponsored by the USNRC have shown that reinforced shear wall (Seismic Category I) structures exhibit stiffnesses and natural frequencies which are smaller than those calculated in the design process. The USNRC has sponsored Sandia National Labs to perform an evaluation of the effects of the reduced frequencies on several existing seismic PRAs in order to determine the seismic risk implications inherent in these test results. This report presents the results for the re-evaluation of the seismic risk for three nuclear power plants: the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station, the Zion Nuclear Power Plant, and Arkansas Nuclear One -- Unit 1 (ANO-1). Increases in core damage frequencies for seismic initiated events at Peach Bottom were 25 to 30 percent (depending on whether LLNL or EPRI hazard curves were used). At the ANO-1 site, the corresponding increases in plant risk were 10 percent (for each set of hazard curves). Finally, at Zion, there was essentially no change in the computed core damage frequency when the reduction in shear wall stiffness was included. In addition, an evaluation of deterministic ''design-like'' structural dynamic calculations with and without the shear stiffness reductions was made. Deterministic loads calculated for these two cases typically increased on the order of 10 to 20 percent for the affected structures

  3. French experience in seismic risk analysis and associated research works

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadioun, B.

    1984-11-01

    This communication reviews the basic principles of the seismic risk analysis for nuclear installations in France practiced by the IPSN of the CEA. The presentation of each stage of the analysis includes an account of the methods used, the difficulties met, and a comparison with the recommendations of the AIEA-SG-S1. First, this paper deals with the sismotectonic analysis and with the definition of two reference earthquakes. Then, the calculation of the ground motion corresponding to the reference earthquakes is presented. A particular attention is paid to the problems of calculation of ground motion in the case of important earthquakes near active faults and to the effect of the soil on these movements. Finally, some criticisms, a description of studies undertaken at the moment and some recommendations are presented [fr

  4. Analysis of parameter uncertainties in the assessment of seismic risk for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yucemen, S.M.

    1981-04-01

    Probabilistic and statistical methods are used to develop a procedure by which the seismic risk at a specific site can be systematically analyzed. The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consisted method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. Methods are proposed for including these uncertainties in the final value of calculated risks. Two specific case studies are presented in detail to illustrate the application of the probabilistic method of seismic risk evaluation and to investigate the sensitivity of results to different assumptions

  5. Overview of seismic probabilistic risk assessment for structural analysis in nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1989-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for seismic events is currently being performed for nuclear and DOE facilities. The background on seismic PRA is presented along with a basic description of the method. The seismic PRA technique is applicable to other critical facilities besides nuclear plants. The different approaches for obtained structure fragility curves are discussed and their applications to structures and equipment, in general, are addressed. It is concluded that seismic PRA is a useful technique for conducting probability analysis for a wide range of classes of structures and equipment

  6. A framework of risk-informed seismic safety evaluation of nuclear power plants in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondo, S.; Sakagami, M.; Hirano, M.; Shiba, M.

    2001-01-01

    A framework of risk-informed seismic design and safety evaluation of nuclear power plants is under consideration in Japan so as to utilize the progress in the seismic probabilistic safety assessment methodology. Issues resolved to introduce this framework are discussed after the concept, evaluation process and characteristics of the framework are described. (author)

  7. Seismic risk analysis for the Atomics International Nuclear Materials Development Facility, Santa Susana California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    This report presents the results of a detailed seismic risk analysis of the Nuclear Materials Development Facility (NMDF) operated by Atomics International at Santa Susana, California. The historical seismic record was established after a review of available literature, consultation with operators of local seismic arrays and examination of appropriate seismic data bases including the USGS, California Institute of Technology and NEIS data bases. The resulting seismic record, covering the period 1969 to 1977, was used to identify all possible sources of seismicity that could affect the site. The best estimate curve indicates that the facility will experience 30% g with a return period of 55 years and 60% g with a return period of 750 years

  8. Seismic risk analysis for the Atomics International Nuclear Materials Development Facility, Santa Susana California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-12-29

    This report presents the results of a detailed seismic risk analysis of the Nuclear Materials Development Facility (NMDF) operated by Atomics International at Santa Susana, California. The historical seismic record was established after a review of available literature, consultation with operators of local seismic arrays and examination of appropriate seismic data bases including the USGS, California Institute of Technology and NEIS data bases. The resulting seismic record, covering the period 1969 to 1977, was used to identify all possible sources of seismicity that could affect the site. The best estimate curve indicates that the facility will experience 30% g with a return period of 55 years and 60% g with a return period of 750 years.

  9. Towards Improved Considerations of Risk in Seismic Design (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, T. J.

    2012-04-01

    The aftermath of recent earthquakes is a reminder that seismic risk is a very relevant issue for our communities. Implicit within the seismic design standards currently in place around the world is that minimum acceptable levels of seismic risk will be ensured through design in accordance with the codes. All the same, none of the design standards specify what the minimum acceptable level of seismic risk actually is. Instead, a series of deterministic limit states are set which engineers then demonstrate are satisfied for their structure, typically through the use of elastic dynamic analyses adjusted to account for non-linear response using a set of empirical correction factors. From the early nineties the seismic engineering community has begun to recognise numerous fundamental shortcomings with such seismic design procedures in modern codes. Deficiencies include the use of elastic dynamic analysis for the prediction of inelastic force distributions, the assignment of uniform behaviour factors for structural typologies irrespective of the structural proportions and expected deformation demands, and the assumption that hysteretic properties of a structure do not affect the seismic displacement demands, amongst other things. In light of this a number of possibilities have emerged for improved control of risk through seismic design, with several innovative displacement-based seismic design methods now well developed. For a specific seismic design intensity, such methods provide a more rational means of controlling the response of a structure to satisfy performance limit states. While the development of such methodologies does mark a significant step forward for the control of seismic risk, they do not, on their own, identify the seismic risk of a newly designed structure. In the U.S. a rather elaborate performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework is under development, with the aim of providing seismic loss estimates for new buildings. The PBEE framework

  10. Seismic risk and safety of nuclear installations. A look at the Cadarache Centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verrhiest-Leblanc, G.; Chevallier, A.

    2010-01-01

    After a brief recall of some important seismic events which occurred in the past in the south-eastern part of France, the authors indicate the nuclear installations present in this region. They outline the difference between requirements for a usual building and for basic nuclear installations. They indicate laws and regulations which are to be applied to these installations like to any hazardous industrial installation. They describe the seismic risk as it has been determined for the Cadarache area, and evoke the para-seismic design of new nuclear installations which are to be built in Cadarache and actions for a para-seismic reinforcement of existing constructions. Finally, they evoke organisational aspects (emergency plans) and the approach for a better information and transparency about the seismic risk

  11. NSR&D Program Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 Call for Proposals Mitigation of Seismic Risk at Nuclear Facilities using Seismic Isolation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Seismic isolation (SI) has the potential to drastically reduce seismic response of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) and therefore the risk associated with large seismic events (large seismic event could be defined as the design basis earthquake (DBE) and/or the beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) depending on the site location). This would correspond to a potential increase in nuclear safety by minimizing the structural response and thus minimizing the risk of material release during large seismic events that have uncertainty associated with their magnitude and frequency. The national consensus standard America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4, Seismic Analysis of Safety Related Nuclear Structures recently incorporated language and commentary for seismically isolating a large light water reactor or similar large nuclear structure. Some potential benefits of SI are: 1) substantially decoupling the SSC from the earthquake hazard thus decreasing risk of material release during large earthquakes, 2) cost savings for the facility and/or equipment, and 3) applicability to both nuclear (current and next generation) and high hazard non-nuclear facilities. Issue: To date no one has evaluated how the benefit of seismic risk reduction reduces cost to construct a nuclear facility. Objective: Use seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) to evaluate the reduction in seismic risk and estimate potential cost savings of seismic isolation of a generic nuclear facility. This project would leverage ongoing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) activities that are developing advanced (SPRA) methods using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Technical Approach: The proposed study is intended to obtain an estimate on the reduction in seismic risk and construction cost that might be achieved by seismically isolating a nuclear facility. The nuclear facility is a representative pressurized water reactor building nuclear power plant (NPP) structure

  12. Japanese-South African collaboration to mitigate seismic risks in deep gold mines

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ogasawara, H

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Japanese-South African collaborative project entitled "Observational study to mitigate seismic risks in mines". The project will build on previous studies carried out by Japanese seismologists in South African mines, and will develop human and instrumental...

  13. Risks posed by large seismic events in the gold mining districts of South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available buildings are considered vulnerable to damage by large seismic events, posing safety and financial risks. It is recommended that an earthquake engineer inspect the building stock and review the content and enforcement of building codes. Appropriate training...

  14. Historical seismicity in France. Its role in the assessment of seismic risk on French nuclear sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levret, A.

    1987-11-01

    Since 1975 in order to be in conformity with the requirements of the French nuclear program, a review of historical seismicity was undertaken in France. The assessment of seismic hazard for the safety of nuclear plants is in fact based upon a seismotectonic approach which needs to take into account the seismic activity over as long a period of time as possible. The method adopted for reviewing historical earthquakes entails a systematic consultation of the original sources and a critical analysis there of in the light of the historical, geographical and political contexts of the time. The same standards apply where the acquisition of new elements of information is involved. Each item of information is assigned a degree of reliability, then compiled in a computer file, up-dated annually; this file currently contains more than 4.500 events covering a period of time of about a millenary

  15. What is the seismic risk of mine flooding?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Goldbach, O

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available of reservoirs and the injection of fluids into rocks at depth. Fluid-induced seismicity has been observed to occur in oil-well stimulation (Parotidis et al., 2004; Gibbs et al., 1973; Raleigh et al., 1976), where high-pressure water is pumped into a... stimulation well in an oil field in order to increase the oil yield of a nearby production well. Reservoir-induced seismicity is another example where the filling of newly constructed dams has resulted in the onset of seismicity around the dam as water...

  16. The exponential rise of induced seismicity with increasing stress levels in the Groningen gas field and its implications for controlling seismic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourne, S. J.; Oates, S. J.; van Elk, J.

    2018-06-01

    Induced seismicity typically arises from the progressive activation of recently inactive geological faults by anthropogenic activity. Faults are mechanically and geometrically heterogeneous, so their extremes of stress and strength govern the initial evolution of induced seismicity. We derive a statistical model of Coulomb stress failures and associated aftershocks within the tail of the distribution of fault stress and strength variations to show initial induced seismicity rates will increase as an exponential function of induced stress. Our model provides operational forecasts consistent with the observed space-time-magnitude distribution of earthquakes induced by gas production from the Groningen field in the Netherlands. These probabilistic forecasts also match the observed changes in seismicity following a significant and sustained decrease in gas production rates designed to reduce seismic hazard and risk. This forecast capability allows reliable assessment of alternative control options to better inform future induced seismic risk management decisions.

  17. Seismic risk control of nuclear power plants using seismic protection systems in stable continental regions: The UK case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medel-Vera, Carlos, E-mail: cbmedel@uc.cl; Ji, Tianjian, E-mail: tianjian.ji@manchester.ac.uk

    2016-10-15

    Highlights: • Strategies to reduce seismic risk for nuclear power stations in the UK are analysed. • Efficiency of devices to reduce risk: viscous-based higher than hysteretic-based. • Scenario-based incremental dynamic analysis is introduced for use in nuclear stations. • Surfaces of seismic unacceptable performance for nuclear stations are proposed. - Abstract: This article analyses three different strategies on the use of seismic protection systems (SPS) for nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the UK. Such strategies are based on the experience reported elsewhere of seismically protected nuclear reactor buildings in other stable continental regions. Analyses are conducted using an example of application based on a 1000 MW Pressurised Water Reactor building located in a representative UK nuclear site. The efficiency of the SPS is probabilistically assessed to achieve possible risk reduction for both rock and soil sites in comparison with conventionally constructed NPPs. Further analyses are conducted to study how the reduction of risk changes when all controlling scenarios of the site are included. This is done by introducing a scenario-based incremental dynamic analysis aimed at the generation of surfaces for unacceptable performance of NPPs as a function of earthquake magnitude (M{sub w}) and distance-to-site (R{sub epi}). General guidelines are proposed to potentially use SPS in future NPPs in the UK. Such recommendations can be used by the British nuclear industry in the future development of 12 new reactors to be built in the next two decades to generate 16 GWe of new nuclear capacity.

  18. Seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment based on the unified scaling law for earthquakes: Himalayas and adjacent regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekrasova, A. K.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Parvez, I. A.

    2015-03-01

    For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk are constructed with the use of the estimates for the parameters of the unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE), in which the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude distribution of seismic events within a given area is applied in the modified version with allowance for linear dimensions of the area, namely, log N( M, L) = A + B (5 - M) + C log L, where N( M, L) is the expected annual number of the earthquakes with magnitude M in the area with linear dimension L. The spatial variations in the parameters A, B, and C for the Himalayas and adjacent regions are studied on two time intervals from 1965 to 2011 and from 1980 to 2011. The difference in A, B, and C between these two time intervals indicates that seismic activity experiences significant variations on a scale of a few decades. With a global consideration of the seismic belts of the Earth overall, the estimates of coefficient A, which determines the logarithm of the annual average frequency of the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher in the zone with a linear dimension of 1 degree of the Earth's meridian, differ by a factor of 30 and more and mainly fall in the interval from -1.1 to 0.5. The values of coefficient B, which describes the balance between the number of earthquakes with different magnitudes, gravitate to 0.9 and range from less than 0.6 to 1.1 and higher. The values of coefficient C, which estimates the fractal dimension of the local distribution of epicenters, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 and higher. In the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the USLE coefficients mainly fall in the intervals of -1.1 to 0.3 for A, 0.8 to 1.3 for B, and 1.0 to 1.4 for C. The calculations of the local value of the expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the maximal expected magnitude provided the necessary basis for mapping the seismic hazards in the studied region. When doing this, we used the local estimates of the

  19. Methodology for the Seismic risk assessment in segments of fault

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-02-01

    The present study establishes the most adequate methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Iberian Peninsula, in particular for low seismicity areas, through a review of methods used in other countries and its application to a certain area in Spain. In this area the geological context and recent activity of a specific tectonic structure is studied in detail, in order to asses its slip rate, and therefore, its capability of generating earthquakes. In the first stage of this project a review of Seismic Hazard Assessment methods used outside Spain was carried out, as well as, a study of several spanish cases. This stage also comprises a review of the spanish seismic record and a study of the general peninsular neotectonic context, this latter to select a particular fault for the next stage. (Author) 117 refs

  20. Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

    2016-12-01

    We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

  1. State of the Art in Input Ground Motions for Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jung Han; Choi, In Kil; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The purpose of a Seismic Probabilistic Safety Analysis (SPSA) is to determine the probability distribution of core damage due to the potential effects of earthquakes. The SPSA is performed based on four steps, a seismic hazard analysis, a component fragility evaluation, a plant system and accident sequence analysis, and a consequence analysis. There are very different spectrum shapes in every ground motions. The structural response and the seismic load applied to equipment are greatly influenced by a spectral shape of the input ground motion. Therefore the input ground motion need to be determined under the same assumption in risk calculation. Several technic for the determination of input ground motions has developed and reviewed in this study. In this research, the methodologies of the determination of input ground motion for the seismic risk assessment are reviewed and discussed. It has developed to reduce the uncertainty in fragility curves and to remove the conservatism in risk values.

  2. Seismic history of the Maltese islands and considerations on seismic risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Galea

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available A historical catalogue of felt earthquakes in the Maltese islands has been compiled dating back to 1530. Although no fatalities were officially recorded during this time as a direct consequence of earthquake effects, serious damage to buildings occurred several times. In the catalogue time period, the islands experienced EMS-98 intensity VII-VIII once (11 January 1693 and intensity VII, or VI-VII five times. The northern segment of the Hyblean-Malta plateau is the source region which appears to pose the greatest threat, although large Greek events and lower magnitude Sicily Channel events also produced damage. Estimates of return periods for intensity ?V are presented, and it is shown that expected peak ground accelerations justify the implementation of, at least, minimum anti-seismic provisions. The rapid and continual increase in the local building stock on the densely-populated islands warrants the implementation of an appropriate seismic building code to be enforced.

  3. Probability problems in seismic risk analysis and load combinations for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, L.L.

    1983-01-01

    This workshop describes some probability problems in power plant reliability and maintenance analysis. The problems are seismic risk analysis, loss of load probability, load combinations, and load sharing. The seismic risk problem is to compute power plant reliability given an earthquake and the resulting risk. Component survival occurs if its peak random response to the earthquake does not exceed its strength. Power plant survival is a complicated Boolean function of component failures and survivals. The responses and strengths of components are dependent random processes, and the peak responses are maxima of random processes. The resulting risk is the expected cost of power plant failure

  4. Impact of ground motion characterization on conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sewell, R.T.; Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K.

    1996-07-01

    This study evaluates the impact, on estimates of seismic risk and its uncertainty, of alternative methods in treatment and characterization of earthquake ground motions. The objective of this study is to delineate specific procedures and characterizations that may lead to less biased and more precise seismic risk results. This report focuses on sources of conservatism and variability in risk that may be introduced through the analytical processes and ground-motion descriptions which are commonly implemented at the interface of seismic hazard and fragility assessments. In particular, implication of the common practice of using a single, composite spectral shape to characterize motions of different magnitudes is investigated. Also, the impact of parameterization of ground motion on fragility and hazard assessments is shown. Examination of these results demonstrates the following. (1) There exists significant conservatism in the review spectra (usually, spectra characteristic of western U.S. earthquakes) that have been used in conducting past seismic risk assessments and seismic margin assessments for eastern U.S. nuclear power plants. (2) There is a strong dependence of seismic fragility on earthquake magnitude when PGA is used as the ground-motion characterization. When, however, magnitude-dependent spectra are anchored to a common measure of elastic spectral acceleration averaged over the appropriate frequency range, seismic fragility shows no important nor consistent dependence on either magnitude or strong-motion duration. Use of inelastic spectral acceleration (at the proper frequency) as the ground spectrum anchor demonstrates a very similar result. This study concludes that a single, composite-magnitude spectrum can generally be used to characterize ground motion for fragility assessment without introducing significant bias or uncertainty in seismic risk estimates

  5. Impact of ground motion characterization on conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sewell, R.T.; Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K.

    1996-07-01

    This study evaluates the impact, on estimates of seismic risk and its uncertainty, of alternative methods in treatment and characterization of earthquake ground motions. The objective of this study is to delineate specific procedures and characterizations that may lead to less biased and more precise seismic risk results. This report focuses on sources of conservatism and variability in risk that may be introduced through the analytical processes and ground-motion descriptions which are commonly implemented at the interface of seismic hazard and fragility assessments. In particular, implication of the common practice of using a single, composite spectral shape to characterize motions of different magnitudes is investigated. Also, the impact of parameterization of ground motion on fragility and hazard assessments is shown. Examination of these results demonstrates the following. (1) There exists significant conservatism in the review spectra (usually, spectra characteristic of western U.S. earthquakes) that have been used in conducting past seismic risk assessments and seismic margin assessments for eastern U.S. nuclear power plants. (2) There is a strong dependence of seismic fragility on earthquake magnitude when PGA is used as the ground-motion characterization. When, however, magnitude-dependent spectra are anchored to a common measure of elastic spectral acceleration averaged over the appropriate frequency range, seismic fragility shows no important nor consistent dependence on either magnitude or strong-motion duration. Use of inelastic spectral acceleration (at the proper frequency) as the ground spectrum anchor demonstrates a very similar result. This study concludes that a single, composite-magnitude spectrum can generally be used to characterize ground motion for fragility assessment without introducing significant bias or uncertainty in seismic risk estimates.

  6. Application of a simplified seismic risk methodology to the La Salle County Station Unit 2 BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lappa, D.A.; Wells, J.E.

    1986-01-01

    It is important to bear in mind that no risk assessment of any U.S. nuclear power plant can be interpreted to be generally representative of more than a handful of other U.S. plants. Variations in factors ranging from plant age and operating experience to NRC licensing requirements and design guidelines have led to a wide diversity of power plants in the United States. Except for a few combinations of plants of comparable design and vintage, the extension of plant-specific results to other nuclear power plants should only be done with considerable trepidation. This situation is worsened for a seismic PRA because of the variability in the seismic hazard from site to site. In the case of this study, it would be a mistake to infer that all BWRs are sufficiently resistant to earthquakes because of the generally low seismic failure probabilities at La Salle. Unless those BWRs had similar site characteristics and were of a similar design and vintage as La Salle, no immediate extension of this study's results would be appropriate. With these thoughts in mind, we turn our attention to one of the questions which the La Salle seismic PRA is supposed to address, namely, the comparable seismic vulnerability of BWRs and PWRs. The La Salle study has provided us with some insight to the seismic risk at a particular BWR. This information may or may not be useful to understanding the seismic vulnerability of other BWRs

  7. Seismic risk analysis for the fast breeder prototype SNR-300 in Kalkar (FRG)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosser, D.

    1983-01-01

    This paper summarizes the seismic part of the SNR-300 Risk Oriented Analysis. Two different approaches were used for the seismic hazard description. In the first one, similar to the German Risk Study for PWR, the seismic input was given by a site-independent mean acceleration response spectrum and duration of strong motion prescribed for the design of the plant; the spectrum was scaled with the peak ground acceleration the probability of exceedance of which at the site Kalkar had been calculated in a former seismic hazard tudy. For the second approach, site- and intensity- dependent mean acceleration response spectra and duration of strong motion were derived and the probability of exceedance of the site intensity was evaluated in a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The seismic responses of safety related and other important buildings were calculated by time-history analyses using artificial acceleration time-histories with the given frequency content and duration of strong motion. The influence of uncertainties in dynamic soil parameters and structural modelling was assessed in parametric studies. Some important structural elements within the buildings were investigated in more detail. Their seismic performance was evaluated using ultimate limit state definitions according to the respective design codes or rotation limits for nonlinear dynamic calculations. (orig./RW)

  8. Seismic risk assessment in the Mexican Nuclear Center applying the Gumbel-I distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores R, J.H.; Arguelles F, R.; Camacho L, M.E.; Urrutia F, J.

    1997-01-01

    A licensing requirement for the operation of nuclear facilities is the performance of different kinds of studies, one of which is seismic risk assessment. This study is useful for the validation of the seismic coefficient applied in the structural design of the facilities. Thus, for the construction of a pilot nuclear fuel plant at Mexico Nuclear Centre of the Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares (ININ), was necessary to make such study. The seismicity data for the period between 1912 and 1990 were used and the extreme values Gumbel-I distribution was applied to them. With this, ground acceleration seismic risk maps for recurrence periods of 1, 25 and 50 years were drawn up, showing maximum values of 1.2, 4.25, and 5.0 gales, respectively. (Author)

  9. Plutonium and Americium Geochemistry at Hanford: A Site Wide Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cantrell, Kirk J.; Felmy, Andrew R.

    2012-08-23

    This report was produced to provide a systematic review of the state-of-knowledge of plutonium and americium geochemistry at the Hanford Site. The report integrates existing knowledge of the subsurface migration behavior of plutonium and americium at the Hanford Site with available information in the scientific literature regarding the geochemistry of plutonium and americium in systems that are environmentally relevant to the Hanford Site. As a part of the report, key research needs are identified and prioritized, with the ultimate goal of developing a science-based capability to quantitatively assess risk at sites contaminated with plutonium and americium at the Hanford Site and the impact of remediation technologies and closure strategies.

  10. Seismic risk reduction for architectural heritage. A comparison between experiences from Colombia and Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Niglio, Olimpia; Valencia Mina, William; Universidad del Quindío

    2015-01-01

    Seismic risk is a problem in many countries, especially in Latin America, the Middle East and the Far East, particularly Japan. From the analysis of seismicity and built heritage in Japan and Colombia, this article presents the first results of a comparative research between the two countries, the different methods of intervention and management to protectthe architectural heritage, which is important to reduce their vulnerability. This paper also presents some thoughts on the legal regulatio...

  11. An assessment of the low seismic risk of the inherently safe sodium advanced fast reactor (SAFR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutherford, P.D.

    1988-01-01

    A recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the sodium advanced fast reactor (SAFR) demonstrated the inherently low risk of advanced liquid-metal, pool-type fast reactors with inherent safety systems. As a result, it was recognized that external events, especially seismic events, may not only be a major contributor to risk (as shown in several LWR PRAs) but also may completely dominate the risk. Accordingly, a seismic risk assessment has been completed for SAFR, which resulted in a core damage frequency of 2 x 10 -7 /year and a large release frequency of 4 x 10 -9 /year. This paper reports that public health risk in terms of early fatality risk and latent fatality risk were also several orders of magnitude below the NRC safety goals and below recent LWR risks reported in NUREB/CR1150

  12. Risk-Informed Selection of Steel Connections for Seismic Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De León-Escobedo D.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The findings about the fragile behavior of steel welded connections after the Northridge 1994 earthquake, specially for frames designed to withstand lateral force, has brought an amount of new attention to the design and safety issues of the welded connections for structures located on seismic zones. In México, practitioners and designers are wondering about the seismic effectiveness of the several kinds of connections as used in steel structures. A decision must be made to balance the safety required with the costs incurred after exceeding the serviceability limit state. Structural reliability techniques provide the proper framework to include the inherent uncertainties into the design process. Registered motions after the 1985 Mexico City earthquake are properly scaled according to the seismic hazard curve for soft soil in Mexico City. Earthquake occurrence is modeled as a Poisson process and the expected life-cycle cost is taken as the decision criteria. Parametric analyses allow the identification of dominant variables and ranges where one option is more recommendable than the other one. The proposed formulation may support designers and builders for the decision making process about the selection of the convenient connection type for the seismic zones with soft soil in Mexico City.

  13. Development of fragility descriptions of equipment for seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardy, G.S.; Campbell, R.D.

    1983-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant for postulated hazard requires the development of fragility relationships for the plants' safety related equipment. The objective of this paper is to present some general results and conclusions concerning the development of these seismic fragility levels. Participation in fragility-related research and experience gained from the completion of several PRA studies of a variety of nuclear power plants have provided much insight as to the most vulnerable equipment and the most efficient use of resources for development of fragilities. Plants studied had seismic design bases ranging from very simple equivalent static analysis for some of the earlier plants to state-of-the-art complex multimode dyanamic analyses for plants currently under construction. Increased sophistication and rigor in seismic qualification of equipment has resulted for the most part in increased seismic resistance. The majority of equipment has been found, however, to possess more than adequate resistance to seismic loading regardless of the degree of sophistication utilized in design as long as seismic loading was included in the design process. This paper presents conclusions of the authors as to which items of equipment typically require an individual ''plant-specific'' fragility analysis and which can be treated in a generic fashion. In addition, general conclusions on the relative seismic capacity levels and most frequent failure modes are summarized for generic equipment groups

  14. Seismic cycle and seismic risk of an active faults network: the Corinth rift case (Greece)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boiselet, Aurelien

    2014-01-01

    The Corinth rift (Greece) is one of the regions with the highest strain rates (16 mm/y extension rate) in the Euro-Mediterranean area and as such it has long been identified as a site of major importance for earthquake studies in Europe (20 years of research by the Corinth Rift Laboratory and 4 years of in-depth studies by the ANR-SISCOR project). This enhanced knowledge, acquired in particular, in the western part of the Gulf of Corinth (CRL region), an area about 50 by 40 km 2 , between the city of Patras to the west and the city of Aigion to the east, provides an excellent opportunity to compare fault-based (FB) and classical seismo-tectonic (ST) approaches currently used in seismic hazard assessment studies. An homogeneous earthquake catalogue was thus constructed for the purpose of this study along with a comprehensive database of all relevant geological, geodetic and geophysical information available in the literature and recently collected within the ANR-SISCOR project. The homogenized Mw earthquake catalogue is composed of data from the National Observatory of Athens and from the university of Thessaloniki as well as data acquired through historical and instrumental work performed within the ANR-SISCOR group for the CRL region. A frequency magnitude analysis confirms that seismicity rates are governed by Gutenberg-Richter (GR) statistic for 1.2 =6 earthquakes were computed for the region of study. Time dependent models (Brownian Passage time and Weibull probability distributions) were also explored. The probability (normalized by area) of a M≥6.0 earthquake is found to be greater in the CRL region compared to the eastern part of the Corinth rift. Probability estimates corresponding to the 16. and 84. percentile are also provided, as a means of representing the range of uncertainties in the results. Probability estimates based on the ST-approach are then compared to those based on the FB approach approach. In general ST tends to overestimate probabilities

  15. Seismic hazard and risk assessment for large Romanian dams situated in the Moldavian Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Toma Danila, Dragos; Borleanu, Felix; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Moldoveanu, Traian

    2016-04-01

    Besides periodical technical inspections, the monitoring and the surveillance of dams' related structures and infrastructures, there are some more seismic specific requirements towards dams' safety. The most important one is the seismic risk assessment that can be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine (2002), and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at the dams site - values obtained using probabilistic hazard assessment approaches (Moldovan et al., 2008), the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics (human, economical, historic and cultural heritage, etc) in the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. Probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH), vulnerability and risk studies for dams situated in the Moldavian Platform, starting from Izvorul Muntelui Dam, down on Bistrita and following on Siret River and theirs affluent will be realized. The most vulnerable dams will be studied in detail and flooding maps will be drawn to find the most exposed downstream localities both for risk assessment studies and warnings. GIS maps that clearly indicate areas that are potentially flooded are enough for these studies, thus giving information on the number of inhabitants and goods that may be destroyed. Geospatial servers included topography is sufficient to achieve them, all other further studies are not necessary for downstream risk assessment. The results will consist of local and regional seismic information, dams specific characteristics and locations, seismic hazard maps and risk classes, for all dams sites (for more than 30 dams), inundation maps (for the most vulnerable dams from the region) and possible affected localities. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of an large earthquake occurrence, allowing further

  16. Characterizing the Benefits of Seismic Isolation for Nuclear Structures: A Framework for Risk-Based Decision Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolisetti, Chandrakanth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Yu, Chingching [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Whittaker, Andrew [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kosbab, Ben [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-11-01

    This report provides a framework for assessing the benefits of seismic isolation and exercises the framework on a Generic Department of Energy Nuclear Facility (GDNF). These benefits are (1) reduction in the risk of unacceptable seismic performance and a dramatic reduction in the probability of unacceptable performance at beyond-design basis shaking, and (2) a reduction in capital cost at sites with moderate to high seismic hazard. The framework includes probabilistic risk assessment and estimates of overnight capital cost for the GDNF.

  17. Assessing the cost-effectiveness of seismic risk reduction options in oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasserasadi, K.; Ghafory-Ashtiany, M.

    2007-01-01

    An integrated probabilistic methodology for cost-efficiency estimation of different sort of seismic risk management measures are introduced by adding Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) module to an integrated seismic risk assessment model. An oil refinery in Iran has been selected for case study and cost-efficiency of software and hardware mitigation measures are evaluated. The results have shown that: (1) software mitigation measures have more benefit than hardware ones, (2) considering indirect loss in CBA lead to more benefit-cost ratio and (3) although increase of discount ratio decreases the benefit-cost ratio, the arrangement of mitigation measures from benefit-cost viewpoint are constant. (authors)

  18. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  19. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  20. Risk management considerations for seismic upgrading of an older facility for short-term residue stabilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Additon, S.L.; Peregoy, W.L.; Foppe, T.L.

    1999-01-01

    Building 707 and its addition, Building 707A, were selected, after the production mission of Rocky Flats was terminated a few years ago, to stabilize many of the plutonium residues remaining at the site by 2002. The facility had undergone substantial safety improvements to its safety systems and conduct of operations for resumption of plutonium operations in the early 1990s and appeared ideally suited for this new mission to support accelerated Site closure. During development of a new authorization basis, a seismic evaluation was performed. This evaluation addressed an unanalyzed expansion joint and suspect connection details for the precast concrete tilt-up construction and concluded that the seismic capacity of the facility is less than half of that determined by previous analysis. Further, potential seismic interaction was identified between a collapsing Building 707 and the seismically upgraded Building 707A, possibly causing the partial collapse of the latter. Both the operating contractor and the Department of Energy sought a sound technical basis for deciding how to proceed. This paper addresses the risks of the as-is facility and possible benefits of upgrades to support a decision on whether to upgrade the seismic capacity of Building 707, accept the risk of the as-is facility for its short remaining mission, or relocate critical stabilization missions. The paper also addresses the Department of Energy's policy on natural phenomena

  1. Seismic risk assessment of architectural heritages in Gyeongju considering local site effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, H.-J.; Kim, D.-S.; Kim, D.-M.

    2013-02-01

    A seismic risk assessment is conducted for cultural heritage sites in Gyeongju, the capital of Korea's ancient Silla Kingdom. Gyeongju, home to UNESCO World Heritage sites, contains remarkable artifacts of Korean Buddhist art. An extensive geotechnical survey including a series of in situ tests is presented, providing pertinent soil profiles for site response analyses on thirty cultural heritage sites. After the shear wave velocity profiles and dynamic material properties were obtained, site response analyses were carried out at each historical site and the amplification characteristics, site period, and response spectrum of the site were determined for the earthquake levels of 2400 yr and 1000 yr return periods based on the Korean seismic hazard map. Response spectrum and corresponding site coefficients obtained from site response analyses considering geologic conditions differ significantly from the current Korean seismic code. This study confirms the importance of site-specific ground response analyses considering local geological conditions. Results are given in the form of the spatial distribution of bedrock depth, site period, and site amplification coefficients, which are particularly valuable in the context of a seismic vulnerability study. This study presents the potential amplification of hazard maps and provides primary data on the seismic risk assessment of each cultural heritage.

  2. A microseismic workflow for managing induced seismicity risk as CO2 storage projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matzel, E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Morency, C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pyle, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Templeton, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); White, J. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-10-27

    It is well established that fluid injection has the potential to induce earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—by altering state-of-stress conditions in the subsurface. While induced seismicity has not been a major operational issue for carbon storage projects to date, a seismicity hazard exists and must be carefully addressed. Two essential components of effective seismic risk management are (1) sensitive microseismic monitoring and (2) robust data interpretation tools. This report describes a novel workflow, based on advanced processing algorithms applied to microseismic data, to help improve management of seismic risk. This workflow has three main goals: (1) to improve the resolution and reliability of passive seismic monitoring, (2) to extract additional, valuable information from continuous waveform data that is often ignored in standard processing, and (3) to minimize the turn-around time between data collection, interpretation, and decision-making. These three objectives can allow for a better-informed and rapid response to changing subsurface conditions.

  3. The risks to miners, mines, and the public posed by large seismic events in the gold mining districts of South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available are incorporating the risks of seismicity in their disaster management plans, and Johannesburg is urged to do likewise. Some buildings are considered vulnerable to damage by large seismic events, posing safety and financial risks....

  4. Deterministic and probabilistic approach to determine seismic risk of nuclear power plants; a practical example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soriano Pena, A.; Lopez Arroyo, A.; Roesset, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    The probabilistic and deterministic approaches for calculating the seismic risk of nuclear power plants are both applied to a particular case in Southern Spain. The results obtained by both methods, when varying the input data, are presented and some conclusions drawn in relation to the applicability of the methods, their reliability and their sensitivity to change

  5. Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Furen; Wang, Zhenming; Liu, Jingwei

    2011-03-01

    Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 × 0.1°. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity-frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I ≥ 7, 8, or 9 in 50 years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50 years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i.e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate.

  6. The role of GIS in urban seismic risk studies: application to the city of Almería (southern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas-Medina, A.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.; Bernabé, M. A.

    2013-11-01

    This work describes the structure and characteristics of the geographic information system (GIS) developed for the urban seismic risk study of the city of Almería (southern Spain), identifying the stages in which the use of this tool proved to be very beneficial for adopting informed decisions throughout the execution of the work. After the completion of the regional emergency plans for seismic risk in Spain and its subsequent approval by the National Civil Defence Commission, the municipalities that need to develop specific local seismic risk plans have been identified. Hence, the next action is to develop urban seismic risk analyses at a proper scale (Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation - Risk-UR). For this evaluation, different factors influencing seismic risk such as seismic hazard, geotechnical soil characteristics, vulnerability of structures of the region, reparation costs of damaged buildings and exposed population are combined. All these variables are gathered and analysed within a GIS and subsequently used for seismic risk estimation. The GIS constitutes a highly useful working tool because it facilitates data interoperability, making the great volume of information required and the numerous processes that take part in the calculations easier to handle, speeding up the analysis and the interpretation and presentation of the results of the different working phases. The result of this study is based on a great set of variables that provide a comprehensive view of the urban seismic risk, such as the damage distribution of buildings and dwellings of different typologies, the mean damage and the number of uninhabitable buildings for the expected seismic motion, the number of dead and injured at different times of the day, the cost of reconstruction and repair of buildings, among others. These results are intended for interpretation and decision making in emergency management by unspecialised users (Civil Defence technicians and managers).

  7. A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (II) Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the procedures and results of intensity- and time-based seismic risk assessments of a sample nuclear power plant (NPP) to demonstrate the risk-assessment methodology proposed in its companion paper. The intensity-based assessments include three sets of sensitivity studies to identify the impact of the following factors on the seismic vulnerability of the sample NPP, namely: (1) the description of fragility curves for primary and secondary components of NPPs, (2) the number of simulations of NPP response required for risk assessment, and (3) the correlation in responses between NPP components. The time-based assessment is performed as a series of intensity-based assessments. The studies illustrate the utility of the response-based fragility curves and the inclusion of the correlation in the responses of NPP components directly in the risk computation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: a mid-project progress report

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available such as Japan. A 5-year collaborative project entitled "Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks" was launched in 2010 to address these risks, drawing on over a century of South African and Japanese research experience... network in the mining districts. Figure 1. Schematic illustration of the research design. Jpn - Japanese researchers; CSIR - Council for Scientific and Industrial Research; CGS - Council for Geoscience The knowledge gained during the course...

  9. Seismic and volcanic risk in the Azores: reasons to stay in endangered places

    OpenAIRE

    Arroz, Ana Margarida Moura; Palos, Ana Cristina Pires; Rego, Isabel Estrela

    2008-01-01

    SRA 2008 Annual Meeting "Risk Analysis: The Science and the Art", Boston, Massachusetts, Sunday, 7 December 2008 to Wednesday, 10 December 2008. Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions have been regular phenomena throughout the Azores' six centuries of history. In spite of the knowledge already gathered by local historians and Earth sciences researchers, there are no scientific data on the socio-cultural dimensions of volcanic and seismic risks. A study – TOPOI METUS. Social cosmographies of d...

  10. Risks Associated with Unconventional Gas Extraction Projects. Induced Seismicity, NORM and Ecological Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigo-Naharro, J.; Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F.

    2015-01-01

    The latest technological advances in hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling are globally driving the commercial extraction of unconventional resources. Although there is still no commercial exploitation of these resources within the EU, the fact that there are potential reserves in some countries, such as Spain, stimulates the need of performing preliminary studies to define the characteristics that an unconventional gas extraction project should consider. The object of these features are the safety of the project, thus minimizing the probabilities of negative environmental impacts, and especially since there is not any EU Framework Directive focusing on the regulation of the operation of such fossil fuels. A project of this nature, involving natural systems, must start from the knowledge of these systems and from an assessment of its features in order to reach the environmental safety of the operations. Moreover, the implementation of risk management systems, along with the existence of an appropriate legislation and supervision are key elements in the development of unconventional gas extraction projects that are environmentally friendly. The present report includes, among the overall risks associated with such projects, those related to: i) the induced seismicity; ii) the Naturally-Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM); and iii) the ecology.

  11. Setting the Stage for Harmonized Risk Assessment by Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woessner, Jochen; Giardini, Domenico; SHARE Consortium

    2010-05-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is arguably one of the most useful products that seismology can offer to society. PSHA characterizes the best available knowledge on the seismic hazard of a study area, ideally taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Results form the baseline for informed decision making, such as building codes or insurance rates and provide essential input to each risk assessment application. Several large scale national and international projects have recently been launched aimed at improving and harmonizing PSHA standards around the globe. SHARE (www.share-eu.org) is the European Commission funded project in the Framework Programme 7 (FP-7) that will create an updated, living seismic hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region. SHARE is a regional component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM, www.globalquakemodel.org), a public/private partnership initiated and approved by the Global Science Forum of the OECD-GSF. GEM aims to be the uniform, independent and open access standard to calculate and communicate earthquake hazard and risk worldwide. SHARE itself will deliver measurable progress in all steps leading to a harmonized assessment of seismic hazard - in the definition of engineering requirements, in the collection of input data, in procedures for hazard assessment, and in engineering applications. SHARE scientists will create a unified framework and computational infrastructure for seismic hazard assessment and produce an integrated European probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model and specific scenario based modeling tools. The results will deliver long-lasting structural impact in areas of societal and economic relevance, they will serve as reference for the Eurocode 8 (EC8) application, and will provide homogeneous input for the correct seismic safety assessment for critical industry, such as the energy infrastructures and the re-insurance sector. SHARE will cover the whole European territory, the

  12. Seismic Hazard and risk assessment for Romania -Bulgaria cross-border region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Alexandrova, Irena; Vaseva, Elena; Trifonova, Petya; Raykova, Plamena

    2016-04-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are steadily increasing as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of the seismic hazard and risk is particularly important, because it provides valuable information for seismic safety and disaster mitigation, and it supports decision making for the benefit of society. Romania and Bulgaria, situated in the Balkan Region as a part of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, are characterized by high seismicity, and are exposed to a high seismic risk. Over the centuries, both countries have experienced strong earthquakes. The cross-border region encompassing the northern Bulgaria and southern Romania is a territory prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The area is significantly affected by earthquakes occurred in both countries, on the one hand the events generated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source in Romania, and on the other hand by the crustal seismicity originated in the seismic sources: Shabla (SHB), Dulovo, Gorna Orjahovitza (GO) in Bulgaria. The Vrancea seismogenic zone of Romania is a very peculiar seismic source, often described as unique in the world, and it represents a major concern for most of the northern part of Bulgaria as well. In the present study the seismic hazard for Romania-Bulgaria cross-border region on the basis of integrated basic geo-datasets is assessed. The hazard results are obtained by applying two alternative approaches - probabilistic and deterministic. The MSK64 intensity (MSK64 scale is practically equal to the new EMS98) is used as output parameter for the hazard maps. We prefer to use here the macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, because it is directly related to the degree of damages and, moreover, the epicentral intensity is the original

  13. Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trutnevyte, Evelina; Azevedo, Inês L.

    2018-03-01

    Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation (n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%-95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%-100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%-2% during stimulation and 0.003%-3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.

  14. Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Murray, Christopher J.; Thorne, Paul D.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Rogers, Phillip M.

    2001-11-09

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of an uncertainty analysis framework.

  15. Generalized Fragility Relationships with Local Site Conditions for Probabilistic Performance-based Seismic Risk Assessment of Bridge Inventories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sivathayalan S.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The current practice of detailed seismic risk assessment cannot be easily applied to all the bridges in a large transportation networks due to limited resources. This paper presents a new approach for seismic risk assessment of large bridge inventories in a city or national bridge network based on the framework of probabilistic performance based seismic risk assessment. To account for the influences of local site effects, a procedure to generate site-specific hazard curves that includes seismic hazard microzonation information has been developed for seismic risk assessment of bridge inventories. Simulated ground motions compatible with the site specific seismic hazard are used as input excitations in nonlinear time history analysis of representative bridges for calibration. A normalizing procedure to obtain generalized fragility relationships in terms of structural characteristic parameters of bridge span and size and longitudinal and transverse reinforcement ratios is presented. The seismic risk of bridges in a large inventory can then be easily evaluated using the normalized fragility relationships without the requirement of carrying out detailed nonlinear time history analysis.

  16. The earthquake/seismic risk, vulnerability and capacity profile for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was carried out to understand the risks posed by earthquakes in Karonga based on roles and perception of stakeholders. Information was collected from several stakeholders who were found responding to earthquakes impacts in Karonga Town. The study found that several stakeholders, governmental and ...

  17. A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (I) Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

    2011-01-01

    A new procedure for probabilistic seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is proposed. This procedure modifies the current procedures using tools developed recently for performance-based earthquake engineering of buildings. The proposed procedure uses (a) response-based fragility curves to represent the capacity of structural and nonstructural components of NPPs, (b) nonlinear response-history analysis to characterize the demands on those components, and (c) Monte Carlo simulations to determine the damage state of the components. The use of response-rather than ground-motion-based fragility curves enables the curves to be independent of seismic hazard and closely related to component capacity. The use of Monte Carlo procedure enables the correlation in the responses of components to be directly included in the risk assessment. An example of the methodology is presented in a companion paper to demonstrate its use and provide the technical basis for aspects of the methodology. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Seismic and wind vulnerability assessment for the GAR-13 global risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Yamín Lacouture, Luis Eduardo; Hurtado Chaparro, Alvaro Ivan; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario

    2014-01-01

    A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limitations established for both the hazard and exposure models adopted. Seismic and wind vulnerability function...

  19. Review of seismic probabilistic risk assessment and the use of sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiu, K.K.; Reed, J.W.; McCann, M.W. Jr.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents results of sensitivity reviews performed to address a range of questions which arise in the context of seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). In a seismic PRA, sensitivity evaluations can be divided into three areas: hazard, fragility, and system modeling. As a part of the review of standard boiling water reactor seismic PRA which was performed by General Electric (GE), a reassessment of the plant damage states frequency and a detailed sensitivity analysis were conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The rationale for such an undertaking is that in this case: (1) the standard plant may be sited anywhere in the eastern US (i.e., in regions with safety shutdown earthquake (SSE) values equal to or less than 0.3g peak ground acceleration), (2) it may have equipment whose fragility values could vary over a wide range; and (3) there are variations in system designs outside the original defined scope. Seismic event trees and fault trees were developed to model the different system and plant accident sequences. Hazard curves which represent various sites on the east coast were obtained; alternate structure and equipment fragility data were postulated. Various combinations of hazard and fragility data were analyzed. In addition, system modeling was perturbed to examine the impact upon the final results. Orders of magnitude variation were observed in the plant damage state frequency among the different cases. 7 references, 3 figures, 2 tables

  20. Nuclear power plant of Fessenheim: evaluation of the seismic risk; Centrale Nucleaire de Fessenheim: appreciation du risque sismique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    The seismic risk taken into account during the sizing of the nuclear power plant of Fessenheim seems to have been under evaluated at this time. The revaluation of the seismic risk, as proposed, until this day by EDF in order to the third ten-year visit of the power plant, planned for 2009, leads to a significant under evaluation of the risk and then is not acceptable. The present expertise details point by point the weaknesses of these revaluation. The power plant has been sized in an elastic manner that is generally strongly for the safety side. It is imperative to proceed the most quickly as possible to a deep control of the seismic resistance of the power plant of Fessenheim and then after having proceeded to a revision of the seismic risk in taking into account the actual knowledge in this field. (N.C.)

  1. Risk assessment and early warning systems for industrial facilities in seismic zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salzano, Ernesto; Garcia Agreda, Anita; Di Carluccio, Antonio; Fabbrocino, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    Industrial equipments and systems can suffer structural damage when hit by earthquakes, so that accidental scenarios as fire, explosion and dispersion of toxic substances can take place. As a result, overall damage to people, environment and properties increases. The present paper deals with seismic risk analysis of industrial facilities where atmospheric storage tanks (anchored or unanchored to ground), horizontal pressurised tanks, reactors and pumps are installed. Simplified procedures and methodologies based on historical database and literature data on natural-technological (Na-Tech) accidents for seismic risk assessment are discussed. Equipment-specific fragility curves have been thus derived depending on a single earthquake measure, peak ground acceleration (PGA). Fragility parameters have been then transformed to linear probit coefficients in order to obtain reliable threshold values for earthquake intensity measure, both for structural damage and loss of containment. These threshold values are of great interest when development of active and passive mitigation actions and systems, safety management, and the implementation of early warning system are concerned. The approach is general and can be implemented in any available code or procedure for risk assessment. Some results of seismic analysis of atmospheric storage tanks are also presented for validation.

  2. TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN A NUCLEAR SEISMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT BY MEANS OF THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY OF EVIDENCE

    OpenAIRE

    Lo , Chung-Kung; Pedroni , N.; Zio , Enrico

    2014-01-01

    International audience; The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk a...

  3. Proceedings of third Indo-German workshop and theme meeting on seismic safety of structures, risk assessment and disaster mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, G.R.; Parulekar, Y.M.

    2007-01-01

    This Indo-German workshop focuses and emphasises the current research and development activities in both the countries. Themes of this meeting are Earthquake Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Assessment Techniques, Seismic Risk to Mega Cities, Testing and Evaluation of Structures and Components, Base Isolation and other Control Techniques, Seismic Strengthening of Structures, Design Practices and Specifications, Remote Sensing and GIS Applications, Structural Materials and Composites, Containment and Other Special Structures. Papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately

  4. Seismic risk analysis for the Babcock and Wilcox facility, Leechburg, Pennsylvania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    The results of a detailed seismic risk analysis of the Babcock and Wilcox Plutonium Fuel Fabrication facility at Leechburg, Pennsylvania are presented. This report focuses on earthquakes; the other natural hazards, being addressed in separate reports, are severe weather (strong winds and tornados) and floods. The calculational method used is based on Cornell's work (1968); it has been previously applied to safety evaluations of major projects. The historical seismic record was established after a review of available literature, consultation with operators of local seismic arrays and examination of appropriate seismic data bases. Because of the aseismicity of the region around the site, an analysis different from the conventional closest approach in a tectonic province was adapted. Earthquakes as far from the site as 1,000 km were included, as were the possibility of earthquakes at the site. In addition, various uncertainties in the input were explicitly considered in the analysis. The results of the risk analysis, which include a Bayesian estimate of the uncertainties, are presented, expressed as return period accelerations. The best estimate curve indicates that the Babcock and Wilcox facility will experience 0.05 g every 220 years and 0.10 g every 1400 years. The bounding curves roughly represent the one standard deviation confidence limits about the best estimate, reflecting the uncertainty in certain of the input. Detailed examination of the results show that the accelerations are very insensitive to the details of the source region geometries or the historical earthquake statistics in each region and that each of the source regions contributes almost equally to the cumulative risk at the site. If required for structural analysis, acceleration response spectra for the site can be constructed by scaling the mean response spectrum for alluvium in WASH 1255 by these peak accelerations

  5. Component fragility analysis methodology for seismic risk assessment projects. Proven PSA safety document processing and assessment procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolar, Ladislav

    2013-03-01

    The seismic risk task assessment task should be structured as follows: (i) Define all reactor unit building structures, components and equipment involved in the creation of an initiating event (IE) induced by an seismic event or contributing to the reliability of reactor unit response to an IE; (ii) construct and estimate of the fragility curves for the building and component groups sub (i); (iii) determine the HCLPF for each group of buildings, components or equipment; (iv) determine the nuclear source's seismic resistance (SME) as the minimum HCLPF from the group of equipment in the risk-dominant scenarios; (v) define the risk-limiting group of components, equipment and building structures to the SME value; (vi) based on the fragility levels, identify component groups for which a more detailed fragility analysis is needed; and (vii) recommend groups of equipment or building structures that should be taken into account with respect to the seismic risk, i.e. such groups of equipment or building structures as exhibit a low seismic resistance (HCLPF) and, at the same time, are involved to a significant extent in the reactor unit's seismic risk (are present in the dominant risk scenarios). (P.A.)

  6. The KnowRISK project - Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa Oliveria, Carlos; Amaral Ferreira, Mónica; Lopez, Mário; Sousa Silva, Delta; Musacchio, Gemma; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Falsaperla, Susanna; Meroni, Fabrizio; Langer, Horst

    2016-04-01

    Historically, there is a tendency to focus on seismic structural performance of buildings, neglecting the potential for damage of non-structural elements. In particular, non-structural elements of buildings are their architectural parts (i.e. partitions, ceilings, cladding), electrical and mechanical components (i.e., distribution panels, piping, plumbing), and contents (e.g., furniture, bookcases, computers and desktop equipment). Damage of these elements often contributes significantly to earthquake impacts. In the 1999 Izmit Earthquake, Turkey, 50% of the injuries and 3% of human losses were caused by non-structural failures. In the 2010-2011 Christchurch Earthquakes (New Zealand), 40% of building damage was induced by non-structural malfunctions. Around 70%-85% of construction cost goes into these elements, and their damage can strongly influence the ability of communities to cope with and recover from earthquakes. The project Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements (KnowRISK) aims at facilitating local communities' access to expert knowledge on non-structural seismic protection solutions. The project will study seismic scenarios critical for non-structural damage, produce a portfolio of non-structural protection measures and investigate the level of awareness in specific communities. We will implement risk communication strategies that will take into account the social and cultural background and a participatory approach to raise awareness in local communities. The paradox between the progress of scientific knowledge and the ongoing increase of losses from natural disasters worldwide is a well-identified gap in the UN Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015, in which one of the main priorities is the investment on "knowledge use, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience". The KnowRISK is well aligned with these priorities and will contribute to participatory action aimed at: i) transferring expert knowledge

  7. The forecast of mining-induced seismicity and the consequent risk of damage to the excavation in the area of seismic event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Drzewiecki

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Central Mining Institute has developed a method for forecasting the amount of seismic energy created by tremors induced by mining operations. The results of geophysical measurements of S wave velocity anomalies in a rock mass or the results of analytic calculations of the values of pressure on the horizon of the elastic layers are used in the process of calculating the energy. The calculation program which has been developed and adopted has been modified over recent years and it now enables not only the prediction of the energy of dynamic phenomena induced by mining but also the forecasting of the devastating range of seismic shock. The results obtained from this calculation, usually presented in a more readable graphic form, are useful for the macroscopic evaluation of locations that are potential sources of seismic energy. Forecasting of the maximum energy of seismic shock without prior knowledge of the location of the shock's source, does not allow shock attenuation that results from, for example, a distance of tremor source from the excavation which will be affected by seismic energy, to be taken into consideration. The phenomena of energy dissipation, which is taken into account in the forecasts, create a new quality of assessment of threat to the excavation. The paper presents the principle of a method of forecasting the seismic energy of a shock and the risk of damage to the excavation as a result of the impact of its energy wave. The solution assumes that the source of the energy shock is a resilient layer in which the sum of the gravitational stresses, resulting from natural disturbances and those induced by the conducted or planned mining exploitation, is estimated. The proposed solution assumes a spherical model for the tremor source, for which seismic energy is forecasted as a function of the longwall advance and the elementary value of seismic energy destroying the excavation. Subsequently, the following are calculated for the

  8. Seismic risk assessment of Trani's Cathedral bell tower in Apulia, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaferio, Mariella; Foti, Dora

    2017-09-01

    The present paper deals with the evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of slender historical buildings; these structures, in fact, may manifest a high risk with respect to seismic actions as usually they have been designed to resist to gravitational loads only, and are characterized by a high flexibility. To evaluate this behavior, the bell tower of the Trani's Cathedral is investigated. The tower is 57 m tall and is characterized by an unusual building typology, i.e., the walls are composed of a concrete core coupled with external masonry stones. The dynamic parameters and the mechanical properties of the tower have been evaluated on the basis of an extensive experimental campaign that made use of ambient vibration tests and ground penetrating radar tests. Such data have been utilized to calibrate a numerical model of the examined tower. A linear static analysis, a dynamic analysis and a nonlinear static analysis have been carried out on such model to evaluate the displacement capacity of the tower and the seismic risk assessment in accordance with the Italian guidelines.

  9. Goals and activities of the JICA technical cooperation project on reduction of seismic risk in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vacareanu, R.; Kato, H.

    2007-01-01

    Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Technical Cooperation Project on Reduction of Seismic Risk for Buildings and Structures started in Romania on October 1, 2002. The aim of the Project is to strengthen the capacity of earthquake disaster related activities in Romania. The Project approval is the result of four years of intensive efforts made by professionals from Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest (UTCB), Ministry of Transport, Constructions and Tourism (MTCT), Romania, National Building Research Institute (INCERC) Bucharest, JICA, Building Research Institute (BRI), Tsukuba, and National Institute for Land, Infrastructure and Management (NILIM), Tsukuba, Japan. The duration of the Project is five years. The implementing agency is the National Center for Seismic Risk Reduction (NCSRR) as a public institution of national interest under MTCT. The activities are carried out by NCSRR in partnership with UTCB and INCERC. During the Project period, 29 young Romanian engineers were trained in Japan, 7 Japanese experts and 37 Japanese experts worked for long-term and short-term, respectively in Romania. Equipment for seismic instrumentation, dynamic characterization of soil and structural testing rising up approximately to 260 million yens (i.e. 2.17 million USD) were donated by JICA to Romania, through NCSRR. The total cost of the Project is roughly 7 million USD. The paper describes the main activities and results of the Project until the JICA Final Evaluation Mission (March 2007). (authors)

  10. Overview on seismic evaluation and retrofitting within JICA Technical Cooperation Project on reduction of seismic risk in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seki, M.; Vacareanu, R.; Pavel, M.; Lozinca, E.; Cotofana, D.; Chesca, B.; Georgescu, B.; Kaminosono, T.

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to give an overview on the seismic evaluation and retrofitting procedures of reinforced concrete buildings within JICA technical cooperation project in Romania. The content of the paper covers a) an outline of the seismic evaluation; history and comparison of Romanian seismic design codes with the Japanese seismic evaluation guidelines, b) an outline of the retrofitting techniques which were transferred from Japan to Romania and structural tests for retrofitting techniques employed in Romania and c) retrofitting details that were used by JICA/NCSRR in the retrofitting design of two vulnerable buildings in Bucharest. The above-mentioned retrofitting projects are now under development of detailed design and therefore, in the near future, refining and improvement of solutions will be performed. (authors)

  11. The application of seismic risk-benefit analysis to land use planning in Taipei City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Chen, Liang-Chun

    2007-09-01

    In the developing countries of Asia local authorities rarely use risk analysis instruments as a decision-making support mechanism during planning and development procedures. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology to enable planners to undertake such analyses. We illustrate a case study of seismic risk-benefit analysis for the city of Taipei, Taiwan, using available land use maps and surveys as well as a new tool developed by the National Science Council in Taiwan--the HAZ-Taiwan earthquake loss estimation system. We use three hypothetical earthquakes to estimate casualties and total and annualised direct economic losses, and to show their spatial distribution. We also characterise the distribution of vulnerability over the study area using cluster analysis. A risk-benefit ratio is calculated to express the levels of seismic risk attached to alternative land use plans. This paper suggests ways to perform earthquake risk evaluations and the authors intend to assist city planners to evaluate the appropriateness of their planning decisions.

  12. Methodology and applications for the benefit cost analysis of the seismic risk reduction in building portfolios at broadscale

    OpenAIRE

    Valcarcel, Jairo A.; Mora, Miguel G.; Cardona, Omar D.; Pujades, Lluis G.; Barbat, Alex H.; Bernal, Gabriel A.

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a methodology for an estimate of the benefit cost ratio of the seismic risk reduction in buildings portfolio at broadscale, for a world region, allowing comparing the results obtained for the countries belonging to that region. This methodology encompasses (1) the generation of a set of random seismic events and the evaluation of the spectral accelerations at the buildings location; (2) the estimation of the buildings built area, the economic value, as well as the cla...

  13. Observational studies to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese-South African collaborative research project

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available and High Stress Mining, 6-8 October 2010, Santiago CHILE 1 Observational studies to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese - South African collaborative research project R.J. Durrheim SATREPS*, CSIR Centre for Mining Innovation.... 3. To upgrade the South African national seismic network. The project is carried out under the auspices of the SATREPS (Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development) program "Countermeasures towards Global Issues through...

  14. Temblor, an app focused on your seismic risk and how to reduce it

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.; Sevilgen, V.; Sevilgen, S.; Kim, A.; Madden, E.

    2015-12-01

    Half of the world's population lives near active faults, and so could suffer earthquake damage. Most do not know they are at risk; many of the rest do too little, too late. So, Temblor is intended to enable everyone in the United States, and eventually the world, to learn their seismic hazard, to determine what most ensures their safety, and to determine the risk reduction measures in their best financial interest. In our free web and mobile app, and Chrome extension for real estate websites, Temblor estimates the likelihood of seismic shaking from all quakes at their occurrence rates, and the consequences of the shaking for home damage. The app then shows how the damage or its costs could be decreased by buying or renting a seismically safer home, securing fragile objects inside your home, retrofitting an older home, or buying earthquake insurance. Temblor uses public data from the USGS in the U.S., SHARE in Europe, and the GEAR model (Bird et al, in press, BSSA) for the globe. Through publicly available modeling methods, the hazard data is combined with public data on homes (construction date and square footage) to make risk calculations. This means that Temblor's results are independently reproducible. The app makes many simplifying assumptions, but users can provide additional information on their site and home for refined estimates. Temblor also lets one see active faults and recent quakes on the screen as they drive through an area. Because fear tends to trigger either panic or denial, Temblor seeks to make the world of earthquakes more fascinating than frightening. We are neither scaring nor soothing people, but rather talking straight. Through maps, globes, push notifications, family connections, and costs and benefit estimates, Temblor emphasizes the personal, local, realtime, and most importantly, rational. Temblor's goal is to distill scientific and engineering information into lucid, trusted, and ideally actionable guidance to renters, home owners, and

  15. Identification of seismically risk-sensitive systems and components in nuclear power plants: feasibility study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.; Boccio, J.; Farahzad, P.

    1983-06-01

    An approach for the identification of risk-sensitive components in a nuclear power plant during and after a seismic event is described. Application of the methodology to two hypothetical power plants - a Boiling Water Reactor and a Pressurized Water Reactor - are presented and the results are given in tabular and graphical form. Conclusions drawn and lessons learned through the course of this study, based on the relative importance of various accident scenarios and sensitivity analyses, are discussed. In addition, the areas that may need further investigation are identified

  16. Tooele Army Depot Revised Final Site-Wide Ecological Risk Assessment. Volume IV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-02-01

    SS!5!55 "^ **i "i *n Q ti ti d ci *»S «S «n *n «n 6 Ö Ö «*$ «ri «r> *r) Wj «1 «rj o c> o <a fr^ «•! *rj f) rrj «*j fry ...Venugopal and Luckey 1978. Arsenic 0.94 (mouse, AsIII and AsV) 0.95 (dog, AsV) 60 - 90 (rat) 2.5 ( chicken ) 2.4 (dog) 0.0077-0.012 0.277 0.288...reservation. A pan of that investigation involves a search for rare plant species, those that might be included under stipulations of the Endangered

  17. Tooele Army Depot Revised Final Site-Wide Ecological Risk Assessment. Volume I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-02-01

    which is immediately east of the depot. Properties to the north of TEAD are used primarily for pasture and cultivation , and to the west and south, for...for the TEAD facility, the types of contaminants present, and the ecotoxicological effects that could be expected due to contaminant exposure. This...questions: • Were the analytical detection limits low enough to be ecotoxicologically relevant (i.e., to be protective of ecological receptors with

  18. Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales, Colombia:Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mario A.Salgado-Gálvez; Gabriel A.Bernal; Daniela Zuloaga; Mabel C.Marulanda; Omar-Darío Cardona; Sebastián Henao

    2017-01-01

    A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales,Colombia,considering assets of different types.The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network,and the second type includes public and private buildings.This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response,assembling high resolution exposure databases,and the development of damage models for different types of elements.The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration.The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System,obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve,average annual loss,and probable maximum loss.For the case of pipelines,repair rates were also estimated.The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies,as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical,probabilistic,and prospective damage and loss estimations.In the case of the buildings,the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.

  19. Seismic Risk of the Base Isolation System Protected by the Hard Stop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jung Han; Choi, In-Kil; Kim, Min Kyu

    2015-01-01

    The concept of base isolation is to permit the deformation of isolator for absorbing seismic input wave from the ground. In a nuclear power plant design, allowable shear deformation of isolators should be enough to absorb the displacement response by extended design basis (EDB) ground motions. However isolators cannot resist over its displacement capacity. So, the clearance of hard stop (CHS) needs to be set between the response of base isolation system excited by the EDB ground motion and the displacement capacity of isolators. The isolation system must survive with high confidence in any seismic accident because it is a non-redundant system. Therefore, the CHS should be determined carefully based on the failure risk of base isolation system considering the uncertainties of earthquake responses and isolator capacities. In this research, the fragility curve of isolation system and its failure risk were estimated. The procedure to calculate the acceleration based fragility curve of the isolation system was developed. The fragility curve and failure risk for example case was estimated and its result was compared with different isolator capacities

  20. Prioritization of information using decision support systems for seismic risk in Bucharest city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armas, Iuliana; Gheorghe, Diana

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays, because of the ever increasing volume of information, policymakers are faced with decision making problems. Achieving an objective and suitable decision making may become a challenge. In such situations decision support systems (DSS) have been developed. DSS can assist in the decision making process, offering support on how a decision should be made, rather than what decision should be made (Simon, 1979). This in turn potentially involves a huge number of stakeholders and criteria. Regarding seismic risk, Bucharest City is highly vulnerable (Mandrescu et al., 2007). The aim of this study is to implement a spatial decision support system in order to secure a suitable shelter in case of an earthquake occurrence in the historical centre of Bucharest City. In case of a seismic risk, a shelter is essential for sheltering people who lost their homes or whose homes are in danger of collapsing while people at risk receive first aid in the post-disaster phase. For the present study, the SMCE Module for ILWIS 3.4 was used. The methodology included structuring the problem by creating a decision tree, standardizing and weighting of the criteria. The results showed that the most suitable buildings are Tania Hotel, Hanul lui Manuc, The National Bank of Romania, The Romanian Commercial Bank and The National History Museum.

  1. Seismic Risk of the Base Isolation System Protected by the Hard Stop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jung Han; Choi, In-Kil; Kim, Min Kyu [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The concept of base isolation is to permit the deformation of isolator for absorbing seismic input wave from the ground. In a nuclear power plant design, allowable shear deformation of isolators should be enough to absorb the displacement response by extended design basis (EDB) ground motions. However isolators cannot resist over its displacement capacity. So, the clearance of hard stop (CHS) needs to be set between the response of base isolation system excited by the EDB ground motion and the displacement capacity of isolators. The isolation system must survive with high confidence in any seismic accident because it is a non-redundant system. Therefore, the CHS should be determined carefully based on the failure risk of base isolation system considering the uncertainties of earthquake responses and isolator capacities. In this research, the fragility curve of isolation system and its failure risk were estimated. The procedure to calculate the acceleration based fragility curve of the isolation system was developed. The fragility curve and failure risk for example case was estimated and its result was compared with different isolator capacities.

  2. Urban seismic risk assessment: statistical repair cost data and probable structural losses based on damage scenario—correlation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Baltzopoulou, Aikaterini D.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

    2016-06-01

    The current seismic risk assessment is based on two discrete approaches, actual and probable, validating afterwards the produced results. In the first part of this research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the 7/9/1999 Parnitha (Athens) earthquake. The actual evaluated seismic risk is afterwards compared to the estimated probable structural losses, which is presented in the second part of the paper, based on a damage scenario in the referring earthquake. The applied damage scenario is based on recently developed damage probability matrices (DPMs) from Athens (Greece) damage database. The seismic risk estimation refers to 750,085 buildings situated in the extended urban region of Athens. The building exposure is categorized in five typical structural types and represents 18.80 % of the entire building stock in Greece. The last information is provided by the National Statistics Service of Greece (NSSG) according to the 2000-2001 census. The seismic input is characterized by the ratio, a g/ a o, where a g is the regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) which is evaluated from the earlier estimated research macroseismic intensities, and a o is the PGA according to the hazard map of the 2003 Greek Seismic Code. Finally, the collected investigated financial data derived from different National Services responsible for the post-earthquake crisis management concerning the repair/strengthening or replacement costs or other categories of costs for the rehabilitation of earthquake victims (construction and function of settlements for earthquake homeless, rent supports, demolitions, shorings) are used to determine the final total seismic risk factor.

  3. Safety goals for seismic and tsunami risks: Lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saji, Genn

    2014-01-01

    water leaked through the truck entrance shutters and louver windows for the Diesel Generators’ air intakes. In view of the difficulties in predicting natural events when establishing the design basis for nuclear facilities, a drastic reappraisal of the safety design approach is essential when considering risks and uncertainties. The author proposes a new probabilistic seismic and tsunami safety goals be developed on the basis of lessons learned from the Fukushima disaster which would fortify the vulnerable systems thereby reducing seismic and tsunami risks as low as practical. The safety goal should also be used to enable stakeholders to find an answer to the question of ‘how safe is safe enough’. Through the development of the safety goals it is demonstrated that the risks of tsunami hazards are by far the largest risk to nuclear facilities in Japan due to its high recurrence period in certain regions of the country. It is essential to guard against tsunami-induced flooding and the need for more robust emergency power supply systems as well as special provisions for the disposal of hydrogen gas in the event of severe accidents

  4. Safety goals for seismic and tsunami risks: Lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi disaster

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saji, Genn, E-mail: sajig@bd5.so-net.ne.jp

    2014-12-15

    tsunami water leaked through the truck entrance shutters and louver windows for the Diesel Generators’ air intakes. In view of the difficulties in predicting natural events when establishing the design basis for nuclear facilities, a drastic reappraisal of the safety design approach is essential when considering risks and uncertainties. The author proposes a new probabilistic seismic and tsunami safety goals be developed on the basis of lessons learned from the Fukushima disaster which would fortify the vulnerable systems thereby reducing seismic and tsunami risks as low as practical. The safety goal should also be used to enable stakeholders to find an answer to the question of ‘how safe is safe enough’. Through the development of the safety goals it is demonstrated that the risks of tsunami hazards are by far the largest risk to nuclear facilities in Japan due to its high recurrence period in certain regions of the country. It is essential to guard against tsunami-induced flooding and the need for more robust emergency power supply systems as well as special provisions for the disposal of hydrogen gas in the event of severe accidents.

  5. Keeping focus on earthquakes at school for seismic risk mitigation of the next generations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura

    2013-04-01

    The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students

  6. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

  7. Development and trial operation of a site-wide computerized material accounting system at Kurchatov Institute

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roumiantsev, A.N.; Ostroumov, Y.A.; Yevstropov, A.V. [Kurchatov Institute RRC, Moscow (Russian Federation)] [and others

    1997-11-01

    Since August 1994 Kurchatov Institute in cooperation with several US Department of Energy Laboratories has been developing a site-wide computerized material accounting system for nuclear materials. In 1994 a prototype system was put into trial operation at two Kurchatov facilities. Evaluation of this prototype led to the development of a new computerized material accounting system named KI-MACS, which has been operational since 1996. This system is a site-wide local secure computer network with centralized database capable of dealing with strictly confidential data and performing near-real time accountancy. It utilizes a Microsoft Windows NT operating system with SQL Server and Visual Basic, and has a `star`-like network architecture. KI-MACS is capable of dealing with materials in itemized and bulk form, and can perform statistical evaluations of measurements and material balance. KI-MACS is fully integrated with bar code equipment, electronic scales, gamma-ray spectrometers and an Active Well Coincidence Counter, thus providing almost on-line evaluation and utilization of results of measurements, item identification and accounting. At present KI-MACS is being used in Physical Inventory Taking at the Kurchatov Central Storage Facility, and by the end of 1997 will be installed at twelve Kurchatov nuclear facilities.

  8. Development and trial operation of a site-wide computerized material accounting system at Kurchatov Institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roumiantsev, A.N.; Ostroumov, Y.A.; Yevstropov, A.V.

    1997-01-01

    Since August 1994 Kurchatov Institute in cooperation with several US Department of Energy Laboratories has been developing a site-wide computerized material accounting system for nuclear materials. In 1994 a prototype system was put into trial operation at two Kurchatov facilities. Evaluation of this prototype led to the development of a new computerized material accounting system named KI-MACS, which has been operational since 1996. This system is a site-wide local secure computer network with centralized database capable of dealing with strictly confidential data and performing near-real time accountancy. It utilizes a Microsoft Windows NT operating system with SQL Server and Visual Basic, and has a 'star'-like network architecture. KI-MACS is capable of dealing with materials in itemized and bulk form, and can perform statistical evaluations of measurements and material balance. KI-MACS is fully integrated with bar code equipment, electronic scales, gamma-ray spectrometers and an Active Well Coincidence Counter, thus providing almost on-line evaluation and utilization of results of measurements, item identification and accounting. At present KI-MACS is being used in Physical Inventory Taking at the Kurchatov Central Storage Facility, and by the end of 1997 will be installed at twelve Kurchatov nuclear facilities

  9. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

    2015-12-01

    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  10. OpenQuake, a platform for collaborative seismic hazard and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henshaw, Paul; Burton, Christopher; Butler, Lars; Crowley, Helen; Danciu, Laurentiu; Nastasi, Matteo; Monelli, Damiano; Pagani, Marco; Panzeri, Luigi; Simionato, Michele; Silva, Vitor; Vallarelli, Giuseppe; Weatherill, Graeme; Wyss, Ben

    2013-04-01

    Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, tools and models for global seismic hazard and risk assessment, within the context of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and international organisations, all contributions are being integrated into OpenQuake: a web-based platform that - together with other resources - will become accessible in 2014. With OpenQuake, stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualize and investigate earthquake hazard and risk, capture new data and share findings for joint learning. The platform is envisaged as a collaborative hub for earthquake risk assessment, used at global and local scales, around which an active network of users has formed. OpenQuake will comprise both online and offline tools, many of which can also be used independently. One of the first steps in OpenQuake development was the creation of open-source software for advanced seismic hazard and risk calculations at any scale, the OpenQuake Engine. Although in continuous development, a command-line version of the software is already being test-driven and used by hundreds worldwide; from non-profits in Central Asia, seismologists in sub-Saharan Africa and companies in South Asia to the European seismic hazard harmonization programme (SHARE). In addition, several technical trainings were organized with scientists from different regions of the world (sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia, Asia-Pacific) to introduce the engine and other OpenQuake tools to the community, something that will continue to happen over the coming years. Other tools that are being developed of direct interest to the hazard community are: • OpenQuake Modeller; fundamental

  11. Education and Raising Awareness of Seismic Risk in the Black Sea Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florin Balan, Stefan; Alcaz, Vasile; Trifonova, Petya; Uker, Nalan; Tataru, Dragos

    2014-05-01

    The Project "Black Sea Earthquake Safety Net(work)" ESNET has the intention to educate and raise awareness of seismic risk in the Black Sea Basin in four countries: Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. The project is financed through "The Black Sea Basin Joint Operational Programme", an EU operational programmes under European Neighborhood & Partnership Instrument (ENPI). The programme is financed by ENPI. The participation of Turkey is financed by Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance. It is implemented during the period 2007 - 2013. The project wants to contribute to the prevention of natural disasters generated by earthquakes in Black Sea Basin by developing a joint monitoring and intervention concept. All the countries involved in the project have their own studies, strategies, prevention and intervention systems in case of earthquakes, but until now there has not been an integrated approach so far in the Black Sea Basin. Given the cross-border character of seismic activity, it is necessary to have a cross-border approach on prevention, monitoring and intervention in case of earthquakes. Main objectives : 1. The assessment of the disaster potential, with accent on the seismic risk degree and the earthquakes effects in the intervention area. For achieving the main objective is to have an accurate and up-to-date assessment of the potential of disasters provoked by earthquakes in the project area/regions. This assessment will be carried out at national level and will be used in designing the common concept/approach for dealing with earthquakes at regional level, thus ensuring the cross-border character of the objective. 2.To develop an integrated seismic monitoring and intervention concept. This integrated concept, built on the basis of the previous objective, will have a cross-border relevance and is at the core of the action. The monitoring and intervention in case of earthquakes will be coordinated among the participating countries based on this, thus a

  12. Seismic risk analysis for General Electric Plutonium Facility, Pleasanton, California. Final report, part II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-01-01

    This report is the second of a two part study addressing the seismic risk or hazard of the special nuclear materials (SNM) facility of the General Electric Vallecitos Nuclear Center at Pleasanton, California. The Part I companion to this report, dated July 31, 1978, presented the seismic hazard at the site that resulted from exposure to earthquakes on the Calaveras, Hayward, San Andreas and, additionally, from smaller unassociated earthquakes that could not be attributed to these specific faults. However, while this study was in progress, certain additional geologic information became available that could be interpreted in terms of the existance of a nearby fault. Although substantial geologic investigations were subsequently deployed, the existance of this postulated fault, called the Verona Fault, remained very controversial. The purpose of the Part II study was to assume the existance of such a capable fault and, under this assumption, to examine the loads that the fault could impose on the SNM facility. This report first reviews the geologic setting with a focus on specifying sufficient geologic parameters to characterize the postulated fault. The report next presents the methodology used to calculate the vibratory ground motion hazard. Because of the complexity of the fault geometry, a slightly different methodology is used here compared to the Part I report. This section ends with the results of the calculation applied to the SNM facility. Finally, the report presents the methodology and results of the rupture hazard calculation

  13. Evaluation of structural fragilities for an IPEEE seismic probabilistic risk assessment study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghiocel, D.M.; Wilson, P.R.; Stevenson, J.D.

    1995-01-01

    The paper presents the main issues and results of a structural fragility analysis for a Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) study of a nuclear power plant (NPP) in the Eastern US. The fragility evaluations were performed for the Reactor Building, Auxiliary Building, Intake Structure and Diesel Generator Building. The random seismic input is defined in terms of the Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS) earthquake on the NPP site anchored to a reference level of 0.40 g Zero Period Ground Acceleration (ZPGA). Because of the soft soil conditions new Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) analyses were performed using the original finite element (stick) structural models and the complex frequency approach. The soil deposit randomness was described by the variations in both the low strain soil shear modules and in its dependence with the shear strain. The probabilistic SSI analyses were performed using digital simulation techniques. The critical failure modes for each structure are investigated and the fragility evaluations are discussed. Concluding remarks and recommendations for improving the quality of the structural fragility analyses are included

  14. The MCE (Maximum Credible Earthquake) - an approach to reduction of seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmis, G.J.K.; Atchison, R.J.

    1979-01-01

    It is the responsibility of the Regulatory Body (in Canada, the AECB) to ensure that radiological risks resulting from the effects of earthquakes on nuclear facilities, do not exceed acceptable levels. In simplified numerical terms this means that the frequency of an unacceptable radiation dose must be kept below 10 -6 per annum. Unfortunately, seismic events fall into the class of external events which are not well defined at these low frequency levels. Thus, design earthquakes have been chosen, at the 10 -3 - 10 -4 frequency level, a level commensurate with the limits of statistical data. There exists, therefore, a need to define an additional level of earthquake. A seismic design explicitly and implicitly recognizes three levels of earthquake loading; one comfortably below yield, one at or about yield, and one at ultimate. The ultimate level earthquake, contrary to the first two, has been implicitly addressed by conscientious designers by choosing systems, materials and details compatible with postulated dynamic forces. It is the purpose of this paper to discuss the regulatory specifications required to quantify this third level, or Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE). (orig.)

  15. Summary of field operations Technical Area I well PGS-1. Site-Wide Hydrogeologic Characterization Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritts, J.E.; McCord, J.P.

    1995-02-01

    The Environmental Restoration (ER) Project at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico is managing the project to assess and, when necessary, to remediate sites contaminated by the lab operations. Within the ER project, the site-wide hydrogeologic characterization task is responsible for the area-wide hydrogeologic investigation. The purpose of this task is to reduce the uncertainty about the rate and direction of groundwater flow beneath the area and across its boundaries. This specific report deals with the installation of PGS-1 monitoring well which provides information on the lithology and hydrology of the aquifer in the northern area of the Kirtland Air Force Base. The report provides information on the well design; surface geology; stratigraphy; structure; drilling, completion, and development techniques; and borehole geophysics information

  16. Building a risk-targeted regional seismic hazard model for South-East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woessner, J.; Nyst, M.; Seyhan, E.

    2015-12-01

    The last decade has tragically shown the social and economic vulnerability of countries in South-East Asia to earthquake hazard and risk. While many disaster mitigation programs and initiatives to improve societal earthquake resilience are under way with the focus on saving lives and livelihoods, the risk management sector is challenged to develop appropriate models to cope with the economic consequences and impact on the insurance business. We present the source model and ground motions model components suitable for a South-East Asia earthquake risk model covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indochine countries. The source model builds upon refined modelling approaches to characterize 1) seismic activity from geologic and geodetic data on crustal faults and 2) along the interface of subduction zones and within the slabs and 3) earthquakes not occurring on mapped fault structures. We elaborate on building a self-consistent rate model for the hazardous crustal fault systems (e.g. Sumatra fault zone, Philippine fault zone) as well as the subduction zones, showcase some characteristics and sensitivities due to existing uncertainties in the rate and hazard space using a well selected suite of ground motion prediction equations. Finally, we analyze the source model by quantifying the contribution by source type (e.g., subduction zone, crustal fault) to typical risk metrics (e.g.,return period losses, average annual loss) and reviewing their relative impact on various lines of businesses.

  17. La protezione del patrimonio monumentale dal rischio sismico / The protection of monuments from the seismic risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Urbani

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Il classico pubblicato nel n. 15/2017 è il testo Protezione del patrimonio monumentale dal rischio sismico  scritto da Giovanni Urbani, direttore dell'Istituto centrale del Restauro (ICR di Roma dal 1973 al 1983, come introduzione alla prima mostra organizzata in Italia sul rischio sismico nel 1983.   The classic published in the issue n. 15/2017 is the text Protezione del patrimonio monumentale dal rischio sismico written by Giovanni Urbani, director of the Central Institue of Restoration ICR in Rome from 1973 to 1983, as introduction to the first exhibition organized in Italy about the seismic risk in 1983.

  18. Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Parisi, Carlo; Prescott, Steven R.; Gupta, Abhinav

    2016-01-01

    Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

  19. Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bolisetti, Chandu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Veeraraghavan, Swetha [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven R. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gupta, Abhinav [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

  20. Impact of structural aging on seismic risk assessment of reinforced concrete structures in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, B.; Song, J.

    1996-03-01

    The Structural Aging Program is addressing the potential for degradation of concrete structural components and systems in nuclear power plants over time due to aging and aggressive environmental stressors. Structures are passive under normal operating conditions but play a key role in mitigating design-basis events, particularly those arising from external challenges such as earthquakes, extreme winds, fires and floods. Structures are plant-specific and unique, often are difficult to inspect, and are virtually impossible to replace. The importance of structural failures in accident mitigation is amplified because such failures may lead to common-cause failures of other components. Structural condition assessment and service life prediction must focus on a few critical components and systems within the plant. Components and systems that are dominant contributors to risk and that require particular attention can be identified through the mathematical formalism of a probabilistic risk assessment, or PRA. To illustrate, the role of structural degradation due to aging on plant risk is examined through the framework of a Level 1 seismic PRA of a nuclear power plant. Plausible mechanisms of structural degradation are found to increase the core damage probability by approximately a factor of two

  1. Risk-Informed External Hazards Analysis for Seismic and Flooding Phenomena for a Generic PWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steve [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ma, Zhegang [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Spears, Bob [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Szilard, Ronaldo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kosbab, Ben [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2017-07-26

    This report describes the activities performed during the FY2017 for the US-DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (LWRS-RISMC), Industry Application #2. The scope of Industry Application #2 is to deliver a risk-informed external hazards safety analysis for a representative nuclear power plant. Following the advancements occurred during the previous FYs (toolkits identification, models development), FY2017 focused on: increasing the level of realism of the analysis; improving the tools and the coupling methodologies. In particular the following objectives were achieved: calculation of buildings pounding and their effects on components seismic fragility; development of a SAPHIRE code PRA models for 3-loops Westinghouse PWR; set-up of a methodology for performing static-dynamic PRA coupling between SAPHIRE and EMRALD codes; coupling RELAP5-3D/RAVEN for performing Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis and automatic limit surface search; and execute sample calculations for demonstrating the capabilities of the toolkit in performing a risk-informed external hazards safety analyses.

  2. Ethical Implications of Seismic Risk Communication in Istanbul - Insights from a Transdisciplinary, Film-based Science Communication Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ickert, Johanna; Stewart, Iain S.

    2016-04-01

    For more than a decade, social science studies indicate that there is little or no correlation between the provision of scientific information about geohazards and risks and the adaptive changes in individual or community behaviour that would reduce risk. Bridging that gap to effectively convey hazard science 'the last mile' to those communities at risk raises a number of ethical issues about the role and responsibilities of geoscientists as communicators. Those issues emerge from a methodological shift away from the dominant interpretation of seismic risk communication as a transfer of scientific facts to "the public", towards more inclusive transdisciplinary communication strategies that incorporate peer-role models, adopt social network-based strategies and directly engage with communities in motivating preparedness actions. With this methodological shift comes ethical dilemmas. What are the target-groups that should be prioritised? What are the professional expectations and levels of personal engagement required of geo-communicators? How able and willing are geoscientists to include other forms of knowledge (e.g. from local communities or other disciplines)? What media formats can reconcile argumentative, informational "matters of fact" with sociocultural and psychological "matters of concern"? How should scientists react to political controversies related to risk mitigation and its communication? In the context of these ethical concerns, many geoscientist struggle to switch from conventional communication modes in which they are the technical 'experts' to more community-centered, participatory modes of public engagement. We examine this research question through a case study on seismic risk communication challenges in Istanbul, a megacity with one of the highest seismic vulnerabilities in the world. Currently, there are few formal mechanisms to facilitate interchange between academic geoscientists and the general public in Istanbul. In order to reduce the city

  3. Application of the SSMRP methodology to the seismic risk at the Zion Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohn, M.P.; Shieh, L.C.; Wells, J.E.

    1983-11-01

    The Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) has the goal of developing a fully coupled analysis procedure for estimating the risk of an earthquake-induced radioactive release from a commercial nuclear power plant. The risk analysis included a detailed seismological evaluation of the region around Zion, Illinois, which provided the earthquake-hazard function and a randomized set of 180 time histories (having peak ground acceleration values up to 1.8 g). These time histories were used as input for dynamic structural response calculations for four different Zion buildings. Detailed finite-element models of the buildings were used. Calculated time histories at piping support points were then used to determine moments throughout critical piping systems. Twenty separate piping models were analyzed. Finally, the responses of piping and safety system components within the buildings were combined with probabilistic failure criteria and event-tree/fault-tree models of the plant safety systems to produce an estimate of the frequency of core melt and radioactive release due to earthquakes

  4. Ground motion input in seismic evaluation studies: impacts on risk assessment of uniform hazard spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, S.C.; Sewell, R.T.

    1996-07-01

    Conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates are studied: effects of uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) are examined for deriving probabilistic estimates of risk and in-structure demand levels, as compared to the more-exact use of realistic time history inputs (of given probability) that depend explicitly on magnitude and distance. This approach differs from the conventional in its exhaustive treatment of the ground-motion threat and in its more detailed assessment of component responses to that threat. The approximate UH-ISS (in-structure spectrum) obtained based on UHS appear to be very close to the more-exact results directed computed from scenario earthquakes. This conclusion does not depend on site configurations and structural characteristics. Also, UH-ISS has composite shapes and may not correspond to the characteristics possessed a single earthquake. The shape is largely affected by the structural property in most cases and can be derived approximately from the corresponding UHS. Motions with smooth spectra, however, will not have the same damage potential as those of more realistic motions with jagged spectral shapes. As a result, UHS-based analysis may underestimate the real demands in nonlinear structural analyses

  5. Optimizing of operational strategies in producting gas fields mitigating induced seismic risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chitu, A.G.; Leeuwenburgh, O.; Candela, T.G.G.; Osinga, S.; Kraaijpoel, D.A.; Wassing, B.B.T.

    2017-01-01

    Pore pressure changes caused by the production of gas from reservoir rocks result in reservoir compaction, stress changes on faults, potential fault reactivation and related seismic activity. This seismic activity is expected to be affected by the amount of pressure change, the spatial distribution

  6. The impact of seismically-induced relay chatter on nuclear plant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bley, D.C.; McIntyre, T.J.; Smith, B.; Kassawara, R.P.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes a systematic scheme for analyzing the impact of relay chatter that is amenable to both PRA analysis and seismic margins analysis. It uses knowledge of the systems engineering of the plant to bound the scope of the problem to a tractable size and has been applied to both the Diablo Canyon PRA and the EPRI seismic margines program trial evaluation at the Catawba Nuclear Power Plant. It has also been coordinated with similar EPRI-sponsored work on relay functionality for the Seismic Qualification Utility Group. (orig./HP)

  7. Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

    OpenAIRE

    Zobin, V. M.; Cruz-Bravo, A. A.; Ventura-Ramírez, F.

    2010-01-01

    A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM) for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure...

  8. Interactive web visualization tools to the results interpretation of a seismic risk study aimed at the emergency levels definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas-Medina, A.; Gutierrez, V.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.

    2009-04-01

    Results of a seismic risk assessment study are often applied and interpreted by users unspecialised on the topic or lacking a scientific background. In this context, the availability of tools that help translating essentially scientific contents to broader audiences (such as decision makers or civil defence officials) as well as representing and managing results in a user-friendly fashion, are on indubitable value. On of such tools is the visualization tool VISOR-RISNA, a web tool developed within the RISNA project (financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre, Spain) for regional seismic risk assessment of Navarre and the subsequent development of emergency plans. The RISNA study included seismic hazard evaluation, geotechnical characterization of soils, incorporation of site effects to expected ground motions, vulnerability distribution assessment and estimation of expected damage distributions for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The main goal of RISNA was the identification of higher risk area where focusing detailed, local-scale risk studies in the future and the corresponding urban emergency plans. A geographic information system was used to combine different information layers, generate tables of results and represent maps with partial and final results. The visualization tool VISOR-RISNA is intended to facilitate the interpretation and representation of the collection of results, with the ultimate purpose of defining actuation plans. A number of criteria for defining actuation priorities are proposed in this work. They are based on combinations of risk parameters resulting from the risk study (such as expected ground motion and damage and exposed population), as determined by risk assessment specialists. Although the values that these parameters take are a result of the risk study, their distribution in several classes depends on the intervals defined by decision takers or civil defense officials. These criteria provide a ranking of

  9. Tourism sector preparedness in zones with a high seismic risk: Case study of the Capital Region of Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lihui, W.; Wang, D.

    2017-12-01

    Japan is a country highly vulnerable to natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Tourism, as a strategic industry in Japan, is especially vulnerable to destructive earthquake disasters owing to the characteristics of vulnerability, sensitivity and substitutability. Here we aim to provide theoretical understanding of the perception and responses of tourism managers towards damaging disasters in tourism destinations with high seismic risks. We conducted surveys among the mangers of tourism businesses in the capital area of Japan in 2014 and applied structural equation modeling techniques to empirically test the proposed model with four latent variables, which are risk perception, threat knowledge, disaster preparedness and earthquake preparedness. Our results show that threat knowledge affects risk perception and disaster preparedness positively. In addition, disaster preparedness positively affects earthquake preparedness. However, the proposed paths from risk perception to disaster preparedness, risk perception to earthquake preparedness, and threat knowledge to earthquake preparedness were not statistically significant. Our results may provide references for policymakers in promoting crisis planning in tourism destination with high seismic risks.

  10. Applicability of the Linear Sorption Isotherm Model to Represent Contaminant Transport Processes in Site Wide Performance Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    FOGWELL, T.W.; LAST, G.V.

    2003-01-01

    The estimation of flux of contaminants through the vadose zone to the groundwater under varying geologic, hydrologic, and chemical conditions is key to making technically credible and sound decisions regarding soil site characterization and remediation, single-shell tank retrieval, and waste site closures (DOE 2000). One of the principal needs identified in the science and technology roadmap (DOE 2000) is the need to improve the conceptual and numerical models that describe the location of contaminants today, and to provide the basis for forecasting future movement of contaminants on both site-specific and site-wide scales. The State of Knowledge (DOE 1999) and Preliminary Concepts documents describe the importance of geochemical processes on the transport of contaminants through the Vadose Zone. These processes have been identified in the international list of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) (NEA 2000) and included in the list of FEPS currently being developed for Hanford Site assessments (Soler et al. 2001). The current vision for Hanford site-wide cumulative risk assessments as performed using the System Assessment Capability (SAC) is to represent contaminant adsorption using the linear isotherm (empirical distribution coefficient, K d ) sorption model. Integration Project Expert Panel (PEP) comments indicate that work is required to adequately justify the applicability of the linear sorption model, and to identify and defend the range of K d values that are adopted for assessments. The work plans developed for the Science and Technology (S and T) efforts, SAC, and the Core Projects must answer directly the question of ''Is there a scientific basis for the application of the linear sorption isotherm model to the complex wastes of the Hanford Site?'' This paper is intended to address these issues. The reason that well documented justification is required for using the linear sorption (K d ) model is that this approach is strictly empirical and is often

  11. 76 FR 50212 - Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement for Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (SNL/NM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-12

    ... Environmental Impact Statement for Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (DOE/EIS-0281-SA-04), DOE/NNSA... Environmental Impact Statement for Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico for the Installation of a Petawatt..., New Mexico Final Supplement Analysis for the Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement (2006 SNL/NM...

  12. Seismic testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sollogoub, Pierre

    2001-01-01

    This lecture deals with: qualification methods for seismic testing; objectives of seismic testing; seismic testing standards including examples; main content of standard; testing means; and some important elements of seismic testing

  13. Use of Satellite SAR Data for Seismic Risk Management: Results from the Pre-Operational ASI-SIGRIS Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvi, Stefano; Vignoli, Stefano; Zoffoli, Simona; Bosi, Vittorio

    2010-12-01

    The scope of the SIGRIS pilot project is the development of an infrastructure to provide value-added information services for the seismic risk management, assuring a close integration between ground-based and satellite Earth Observation data. The project is presently in the demonstration phase, and various information products are constantly generated and disseminated to the main user, the Italian Civil Protection Department. We show some examples of the products generated during the Crisis management of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Central Italy. We also show an example of products generated for the Knowledge and Prevention service in support of the seismic hazard assessment in the area of the Straits of Messina.

  14. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  15. Proceedings of the OECD/NEA workshop on seismic risk - Summary and conclusions - Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations PWG3 and PWG5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    wider use of seismic PSA technology for design of NPPs. Improvements in methodology and database and examinations of the importance of issues in the following areas will further enhance the usefulness of seismic PSA/Margin studies: - Database and guidance for evaluation of seismic capacities of components (with consideration of differences in design philosophy and practice); - Correlations; - Effect of ageing of structures and components; - Analysis of post-earthquake operator actions; - Use of seismic PSA for identifying effective strategy for accident management; - Risk goal oriented design methodology including the use of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; - Extension of the scope of seismic PSA to consider unique situations of other operating modes such as low power/shutdown state. It was also pointed out that the importance of seismic risk is strongly dependent on the geological conditions and design practices of countries and that analysts should select appropriate methodology for their objectives and scope of the seismic PSA/Margin studies with consideration of such conditions in their countries. Efforts by countries and international organisations such as NEA to promote international information exchange in the above areas as well as the experiences in applications and reviewing of seismic PSA/Margin studies are highly recommended

  16. Earthquake and Tsunami: a movie and a book for seismic and tsunami risk reduction in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nostro, C.; Baroux, E.; Maramai, A.; Graziani, L.; Tertulliani, A.; Castellano, C.; Arcoraci, L.; Casale, P.; Ciaccio, M. G.; Frepoli, A.

    2009-04-01

    Italy is a country well known for the seismic and volcanic hazard. However, a similarly great hazard, although not well recognized, is posed by the occurrence of tsunami waves along the Italian coastline. This is testified by a rich catalogue and by field evidence of deposits left over by pre- and historical tsunamis, even in places today considered safe. This observation is of great importance since many of the areas affected by tsunamis in the past are today touristic places. The Italian tsunamis can be caused by different sources: 1- off-shore or near coast in-land earthquakes; 2- very large earthquakes on distant sources in the Mediterranean; 3- submarine volcanic explosion in the Tyrrhenian sea; 4- submarine landslides triggered by earthquakes and volcanic activity. The consequence of such a wide spectrum of sources is that an important part of the more than 7000 km long Italian coast line is exposed to the tsunami risk, and thousands of inhabitants (with numbers increasing during summer) live near hazardous coasts. The main historical tsunamis are the 1783 and 1908 events that hit Calabrian and Sicilian coasts. The recent tsunami is that caused by the 2002 Stromboli landslide. In order to reduce this risk and following the emotional impact of the December 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami, we developed an outreach program consisting in talks given by scientists and in a movie and a book, both exploring the causes of the tsunami waves, how do they propagate in deep and shallow waters, and what are the effects on the coasts. Hints are also given on the most dangerous Italian coasts (as deduced by scientific studies), and how to behave in the case of a tsunami approaching the coast. These seminars are open to the general public, but special programs are developed with schools of all grades. In this talk we want to present the book and the movie used during the seminars and scientific expositions, that was realized from a previous 3D version originally

  17. Real-time risk assessment in seismic early warning and rapid response: a feasibility study in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picozzi, M.; Bindi, D.; Pittore, M.; Kieling, K.; Parolai, S.

    2013-04-01

    Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are considered to be an effective, pragmatic, and viable tool for seismic risk reduction in cities. While standard EEWS approaches focus on the real-time estimation of an earthquake's location and magnitude, innovative developments in EEWS include the capacity for the rapid assessment of damage. Clearly, for all public authorities that are engaged in coordinating emergency activities during and soon after earthquakes, real-time information about the potential damage distribution within a city is invaluable. In this work, we present a first attempt to design an early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment. In particular, the procedure uses typical real-time information (i.e., P-wave arrival times and early waveforms) derived from a regional seismic network for locating and evaluating the size of an earthquake, information which in turn is exploited for extracting a risk map representing the potential distribution of damage from a dataset of predicted scenarios compiled for the target city. A feasibility study of the procedure is presented for the city of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, which is surrounded by the Kyrgyz seismic network by mimicking the ground motion associated with two historical events that occurred close to Bishkek, namely the 1911 Kemin ( M = 8.2; ±0.2) and the 1885 Belovodsk ( M = 6.9; ±0.5) earthquakes. Various methodologies from previous studies were considered when planning the implementation of the early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment: the Satriano et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98(3):1482-1494, 2008) approach to real-time earthquake location; the Caprio et al. (Geophys Res Lett 38:L02301, 2011) approach for estimating moment magnitude in real time; the EXSIM method for ground motion simulation (Motazedian and Atkinson, Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995-1010, 2005); the Sokolov (Earthquake Spectra 161: 679-694, 2002) approach for estimating

  18. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should be considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the

  19. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should be considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the

  20. The contribution of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia to seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Central Asian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; Haberland, C. A.; Pittore, M.; Pilz, M.; Rosenau, M.; Schurr, B.; Wieland, M.; Yuan, X.

    2012-12-01

    Central Asia has one of the world's highest levels of earthquake hazard, owing to its exceptionally high deformation rates. Moreover, vulnerability to natural disasters in general is increasing, due to rising populations and a growing dependence on complex lifelines and technology. Therefore, there is an urgent need to undertake seismic hazard and risk assessment in this region, while at the same time improving upon existing methodologies, including the consideration of temporal variability in the seismic hazard, and in structural and social vulnerability. Over the last few years, the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), in collaboration with local partners, has initiated a number of scientific activities within the framework of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia (GCO-CA). The work is divided into projects with specific concerns: - The installation and maintenance of the Central-Asian Real-time Earthquake MOnitoring Network (CAREMON) and the setup of a permanent wireless mesh network for structural health monitoring in Bishkek. - The TIPAGE and TIPTIMON projects focus on the geodynamics of the Tien-Shan, Pamir and Hindu Kush region, the deepest and most active intra-continental subduction zone in the world. The work covers time scales from millions of years to short-term snapshots based on geophysical measurements of seismotectonic activity and of the physical properties of the crust and upper mantle, as well as their coupling with other surface processes (e.g., landslides). - Existing risk analysis methods assume time-independent earthquake hazard and risk, although temporal changes are likely to occur due to, for example, co- and post-seismic changes in the regional stress field. We therefore aim to develop systematic time-dependent hazard and risk analysis methods in order to undertake the temporal quantification of earthquake activity (PROGRESS). - To improve seismic hazard assessment for better loss estimation, detailed site effects studies

  1. Treating Uncertainties in A Nuclear Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment by Means of the Distemper-Safer Theory of Evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lo, Chungkung; Pedroni, N.; Zio, E.

    2014-01-01

    The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i. e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest

  2. Treating Uncertainties in A Nuclear Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment by Means of the Distemper-Safer Theory of Evidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lo, Chungkung [Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge, Paris (France); Pedroni, N.; Zio, E. [Politecnico di Milano, Milano (Italy)

    2014-02-15

    The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i. e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

  3. Method for evaluation of risk due to seismic related design and construction errors based on past reactor experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Cuesta, M.; Okrent, D.

    1985-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology for quantification of risk due to seismic related design and construction errors in nuclear power plants, based on information available on errors discovered in the past. For the purposes of this paper, an error is defined as any event that causes the seismic safety margins of a nuclear power plant to be smaller than implied by current regulatory requirements and industry common practice. Also, the actual reduction in the safety margins caused by the error will be called a deficiency. The method is based on a theoretical model of errors, called a deficiency logic diagram. First, an ultimate cause is present. This ultimate cause is consumated as a specific instance, called originating error. As originating errors may occur in actions to be applied a number of times, a deficiency generation system may be involved. Quality assurance activities will hopefully identify most of these deficiencies, requesting their disposition. However, the quality assurance program is not perfect and some operating plant deficiencies may persist, causing different levels of impact to the plant logic. The paper provides a way of extrapolating information about errors discovered in plants under construction in order to assess the risk due to errors that have not been discovered

  4. TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN A NUCLEAR SEISMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT BY MEANS OF THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY OF EVIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHUNG-KUNG LO

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii providing ‘conservative’ bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i.e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF that reflect the (limited state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

  5. The Temblor mobile seismic risk app, v2: Rapid and seamless earthquake information to inspire individuals to recognize and reduce their risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.; Sevilgen, V.; Sevilgen, S.; Kim, A.; Jacobson, D. S.; Lotto, G. C.; Ely, G.; Bhattacharjee, G.; O'Sullivan, J.

    2017-12-01

    Temblor quantifies and personalizes earthquake risk and offers solutions by connecting users with qualified retrofit and insurance providers. Temblor's daily blog on current earthquakes, seismic swarms, eruptions, floods, and landslides makes the science accessible to the public. Temblor is available on iPhone, Android, and mobile web app platforms (http://temblor.net). The app presents both scenario (worst case) and probabilistic (most likely) financial losses for homes and commercial buildings, and estimates the impact of seismic retrofit and insurance on the losses and safety. Temblor's map interface has clickable earthquakes (with source parameters and links) and active faults (name, type, and slip rate) around the world, and layers for liquefaction, landslides, tsunami inundation, and flood zones in the U.S. The app draws from the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model and the 2014 USGS Building Seismic Safety Council ShakeMap scenari0 database. The Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model is used worldwide, with active faults displayed in 75 countries. The Temblor real-time global catalog is merged from global and national catalogs, with aftershocks discriminated from mainshocks. Earthquake notifications are issued to Temblor users within 30 seconds of their occurrence, with approximate locations and magnitudes that are rapidly refined in the ensuing minutes. Launched in 2015, Temblor has 650,000 unique users, including 250,000 in the U.S. and 110,000 in Chile, as well as 52,000 Facebook followers. All data shown in Temblor is gathered from authoritative or published sources and is synthesized to be intuitive and actionable to the public. Principal data sources include USGS, FEMA, EMSC, GEM Foundation, NOAA, GNS Science (New Zealand), INGV (Italy), PHIVOLCS (Philippines), GSJ (Japan), Taiwan Earthquake Model, EOS Singapore (Southeast Asia), MTA (Turkey), PB2003 (plate boundaries), CICESE (Baja California), California Geological Survey, and 20 other state

  6. Development of a site-wide accident management center for the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heal, D.W.; Britt, T.E.

    1992-01-01

    In 1990, the Safety Analysis Group at the Savannah River Site (SRS) began development of an Accident Management program. The program was designed to provide a total system which would meet the Department of Energy (DOE) Safety Performance Criteria, in regard to severe accident management, in the most effective manner. This paper will present two significant changes in the current SRS Accident Management program which will be used to meet these expanded needs. The first and most significant change will be to expand the diversity of the groups involved in the Accident Management process. In the future, organizations such as Environmental Safety, Health ampersand Quality Assurance, Emergency Planning, Site Management, Human Factors, Risk Assessment, and many others will work as an integrated team to solve facility problems. Organizations such as Materials Technology, Equipment Engineering and many of the laboratories on site will be utilized as support groups to increase the technical capability for specific accident analyses. This phase of the program is currently being structured, and should be operational by January of 1993

  7. A Site Wide Perspective on Uranium Geochemistry at the Hanford Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zachara, John M.; Brown, Christopher F.; Christensen, J. N.; Davis, Jim A.; Dresel, P. Evan; Liu, Chongxuan; Kelly, S. D.; McKinley, James P.; Serne, R. Jeffrey; Um, Wooyong

    2007-10-26

    Uranium (U) is an important risk-driving contaminant at the Hanford Site. Over 200,000 kg have been released to the vadose zone over the course of site operations, and a number of vadose zone and groundwater plumes containing the uranyl cation [UO22+, U(VI)] have been identified. U is recognized to be of moderate-to-high mobility, conditions dependent. The site is currently making decisions on several of these plumes with long-lasting implications, and others are soon to come. Uranium is one of nature’s most intriguing and chemically complex elements. The fate and transport of U(VI) has been studied over the long lifetime of the Hanford Site by various contractors, along with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and its collaborators. Significant research has more recently been contributed by the national scientific community with support from the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Science through its Environmental Remediation Sciences Division (ERSD). This report represents a first attempt to integrate these findings into a cohesive view of the subsurface geochemistry of U at the Hanford Site. The objective is to inform all interested Hanford parties about the in-ground inventory of U and its geochemical behavior. This report also comments on the prospects for the development of a robust generic model to more accurately forecast future U(VI) migration at different Hanford waste sites, along with further research necessary to reach this goal.

  8. Further assessment of seismic hazard/risk in the Bushveld Complex platinum mines and the implication for regional and local support design.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Brink, AVZ

    2002-03-01

    Full Text Available Final Project Report Further assessment of seismic hazard/risk in the Bushveld Complex platinum mines and the implication for regional and local support design. A.v.Z Brink, M.K.C. Roberts, S.M Spottiswoode Research Agency: CSIR: Division of Mining... on the VCR. An industry workshop on local support requirements in areas of higher seismic risk resulted in the specification of support requirements. A maximum design parameter for yielding support in terms of the ground motion velocity is 1 m...

  9. Seismic and dynamic qualification methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, C.W.

    1985-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a conference on seismic effects on nuclear power plants. Topics considered at the conference included seismic qualification of equipment, multifrequency test methodologies, damping in piping systems, the amplification factor, thermal insulation, welded joints, and response factors for seismic risk analysis of piping

  10. Risk assessment of K basin twelve-inch drain valve failure from a postulated seismic initiating event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MORGAN, R.G.

    1999-01-01

    The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project will transfer metallic SNF from the Hanford 105 K-East and 105 K-West Basins to safe interim storage in the Canister Storage Building in the 200 Area. The initial basis for design, fabrication, installation, and operation of the fuel removal systems was that the basin leak rates which could result from a postulated accident condition would not be excessive relative to reasonable recovery operations. However, an additional potential K Basin water leak path is through the K Basin drain valves. Three twelve-inch drain valves are located in the main basin bays along the north wall. The sumps containing the valves are filled with concrete which covers the drain valve body. Visual observations suggest that only the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor. It was recognized, however, that damage of the drain valve bonnet or stem during a seismic initiating event could provide a potential K Basin water leak path. The objectives of this activity are to: (1) evaluate the risk of damaging the three twelve-inch drain valves located along the north wall of the main basin from a seismic initiating event, and (2) determine the associated potential leak rate from a damaged valve

  11. Risk assessment of K basin twelve-inch drain valve failure from a postulated seismic initiating event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MORGAN, R.G.

    1999-04-06

    The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project will transfer metallic SNF from the Hanford 105 K-East and 105 K-West Basins to safe interim storage in the Canister Storage Building in the 200 Area. The initial basis for design, fabrication, installation, and operation of the fuel removal systems was that the basin leak rates which could result from a postulated accident condition would not be excessive relative to reasonable recovery operations. However, an additional potential K Basin water leak path is through the K Basin drain valves. Three twelve-inch drain valves are located in the main basin bays along the north wall. The sumps containing the valves are filled with concrete which covers the drain valve body. Visual observations suggest that only the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor. It was recognized, however, that damage of the drain valve bonnet or stem during a seismic initiating event could provide a potential K Basin water leak path. The objectives of this activity are to: (1) evaluate the risk of damaging the three twelve-inch drain valves located along the north wall of the main basin from a seismic initiating event, and (2) determine the associated potential leak rate from a damaged valve.

  12. Tooele Army Depot Revised Final Site-Wide Ecological Risk Assessment. Volume II (Appendices A through D).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-02-01

    diet of higher trophic level species, such as raptors. Ord’s Kangaroo Rat (Dipodomys ordii). The Ord’s kangaroo rat is chiefly a nocturnal mammal...sandy soils. The entrances of these burrow systems are plugged during the day to maintain humidity and coolness. The kangaroo rat can obtain...sufficient quantities of water from the metabolism of food in their diet, but will drink water when it is available. TSK 0003/SWERA/Rev Final Rpt/November

  13. Seismic hazard assessment: Issues and alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used inter-changeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been pro-claimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

  14. Geoethics and perception of seismic risk: the case of Pollino, Calabria, Southern Italy and the comparison with past societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Pascale, Francesco; Bernardo, Marcello; Muto, Francesco

    2013-04-01

    This work is a synthesis of research on the perception of seismic risk in the area of the Pollino, where it is been two years that an ongoing earthquake swarm is affecting the area between Calabria and Basilicata. Mr Downs has distinguished three different aspects in the perception of the environment: structural, preference and evaluation. Within this third aspect, the perception of seismic risk is an important dimension for the schedule. Starting from the territory, understood as the result of reciprocal interactions between humans and the physical space during the later stages of territorialization and reterritorialization, Geoethics can find a synthesis between humanistic and scientific knowledge in relating to the theme of disasters. The risk must be considered in its territorial nature, as a complex phenomenon which involves all aspects of the relations between man and environment. Assuming that the rupture of the dynamic equilibrium among population, environment and resources is the increasingly frequent causes of the outbreak of disasters in the academic increasing attention has been paid to the concept of resilience, for its potential to evaluate a system in a state of equilibrium and adaptation in response to a shock. Thus, the meaning adopted in the social sciences, not only in terms of natural disasters, but more generally for any change to the territory, refers to the ability to resist and recover their losses. Therefore, Geoethics can certainly help especially in educating the territory in terms of integrated risk management to become a tool that can enhance the resilience. In education-teaching, the concept of resilience is used especially for what concerns the sphere of the child's skills in effectively managing stress and difficulties of everyday life. In this context of risk, improve communications, awareness of the complexity of risk and the level of preparation would increase the resilience of the territory and to allow a more effective

  15. Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobin, V. M.; Cruz-Bravo, A. A.; Ventura-Ramírez, F.

    2010-06-01

    A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM) for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure time to the seismic risk for this zonation is equal to the interval between two destructive earthquakes. The damage probability matrices were calculated for three types of urban buildings and five types of residential blocks in Colima. It was shown that only 9% of 1409 residential blocks are able to resist to the Modify Mercalli (MM) intensity VII and VIII earthquakes without significant damage. The proposed DPM-2007 is in good accordance with the experimental damage curves based on the macroseismic evaluation of 3332 residential buildings in Colima that was carried out after the 21 January 2003 intensity MM VII earthquake. This methodology and the calculated PDM-2007 curves may be applied also to seismic risk microzonation for many low-rise cities in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

  16. Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Zobin

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure time to the seismic risk for this zonation is equal to the interval between two destructive earthquakes. The damage probability matrices were calculated for three types of urban buildings and five types of residential blocks in Colima. It was shown that only 9% of 1409 residential blocks are able to resist to the Modify Mercalli (MM intensity VII and VIII earthquakes without significant damage. The proposed DPM-2007 is in good accordance with the experimental damage curves based on the macroseismic evaluation of 3332 residential buildings in Colima that was carried out after the 21 January 2003 intensity MM VII earthquake. This methodology and the calculated PDM-2007 curves may be applied also to seismic risk microzonation for many low-rise cities in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

  17. Validation needs of seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods applied to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kot, C.A.; Srinivasan, M.G.; Hsieh, B.J.

    1985-01-01

    An effort to validate seismic PRA methods is in progress. The work concentrates on the validation of plant response and fragility estimates through the use of test data and information from actual earthquake experience. Validation needs have been identified in the areas of soil-structure interaction, structural response and capacity, and equipment fragility. Of particular concern is the adequacy of linear methodology to predict nonlinear behavior. While many questions can be resolved through the judicious use of dynamic test data, other aspects can only be validated by means of input and response measurements during actual earthquakes. A number of past, ongoing, and planned testing programs which can provide useful validation data have been identified, and validation approaches for specific problems are being formulated

  18. Management of environmental risks associated with landfills in seismically active regions in the New Independent States of Central Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webb, S.M.

    2009-01-01

    Sustainable waste management and disposal is a societal challenge in terms of economics, public health and environmental impact. The situation in developing countries, and in particular those subject to extreme natural hazards, results in increased overall risk as governments prioritize investments to issues of perceived higher economic importance. This dissertation investigates environmental risks associated with landfills in seismically active regions in the New Independent States of Central Asia. Environmental risk from municipal solid waste landfill sites encompasses a wide range of topics within socio-economics, physical sciences and engineering and therefore necessitates a multi-disciplinary approach. The underlying study is an accumulative result of a three-year collaborative research project (Contract No. INCO-CT-2005-516732) funded within the Eu Sixth Framework Programme (FP6). The international cooperation involved European, Russian and Central Asian research partners forming a multi-disciplinary consortium covering: GIS technologies, geology / hydrogeology geophysics and geotechnical engineering; landfill design and operation and waste management. understanding the relevant socio-economic aspects and legislative frameworks was necessary to prepare results and recommendations to address stakeholders in the Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan and uzbekistan. (author) [de

  19. Parameters and criteria for repair and strengthening of buildings in the old town core of Dubrovnik based on seismic risk analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Vladimir

    1995-06-01

    Full Text Available Definition of the seismicity conditions, the design seismic parameters and the seismic risk level are important and inevitable phases ol the complex process of repair and strengthening of existing structures in certain towns located in seismically active areas. These should be studied in all necessary details in order to provide corresponding bases and define the necessary preventive measures against expected strong earthquakes. Such an approach becomes even nlore necessary arter the experience regarding the last catastrophic earthquakes that occurred in Former Yugoslavia (Skopje. Banja Luka, Montenegro coast and Kopaonik and inflicted heavy losses of human lives and material properties. The old town core of Dubrovnik is known for the large concentration of buildings of enorrnous cultural-historic importance. Considering the high seismic activity of this area. all these buildings are very likely to experience heavy damage and failure. Tlie history of the town records many catastrophic earthquakes that inflicted heavy material losses and loss of human lives. Here, we can rnention the great Dubrovnik earthquake of 1667 and the last Montenegro earthquake of April 15, 1979 with an epicenter in the Ulcinj-Bar area. The consequences of the latter are well known. The purpose of this paper is to present some results and experience gained from the investigations performed for the area of Dubro~nikil lustrated by several examples of buildings existing in the old town core of Dubrovnik.

  20. Evolution of seismic risk management for insurance over the past 30 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Haresh C.; Dong, Weimin; Stojanovski, Pane; Chen, Alex

    2018-01-01

    During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the investment banking sectors have enthusiastically adopted loss estimation tools developed by engineers in developing their business strategies and for managing their financial risks. As a result, insurance/reinsurance strategy has evolved as a major risk mitigation tool in managing catastrophe risk at the individual, corporate, and government level. This is particularly true in developed countries such as US, Western Europe, and Japan. Unfortunately, it has not received the needed attention in developing countries, where such a strategy for risk management is most needed. Fortunately, in the last five years, there has been excellent focus in developing "InsurTech" tools to address the much needed "Insurance for the Masses", especially for the Asian Markets. In the earlier years of catastrophe model development, risk analysts were mainly concerned with risk reduction options through engineering strategies, and relatively little attention was given to financial and economic strategies. Such state-of-affairs still exists in many developing countries. The new developments in the science and technologies of loss estimation due to natural catastrophes have made it possible for financial sectors to model their business strategies such as peril and geographic diversification, premium calculations, reserve strategies, reinsurance contracts, and other underwriting tools. These developments have not only changed the way in which financial sectors assess and manage their risks, but have also changed the domain of opportunities for engineers and scientists. This paper will address the issues related to developing insurance/reinsurance strategies to mitigate catastrophe risks and describe the role catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance has played in managing

  1. DimeRisk Project: Development of an educational and training program for the prevention and mitigation of seismic risk in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-González, Fidel; Martín-Velazquez, Silvia; Giner-Robles, Jorge; Martínez-Díaz, Jose Jesus; Rodríguez-Pascua, Miguel Angel; Béjar, Marta; Pérez-López, Raul; López, Jose Antonio; Morales, Javier; Barranco, Ana; Palomo, Isabel

    2014-05-01

    In Spain, due to the low recurrence of earthquakes in the last century, there is no awareness of seismic risk and prevention plans. For this reason, moderate magnitude earthquakes have generated significant damage and casualties. However, the risk is evident, in Spain during the nineteenth century there were more than five destructive earthquakes with intensities greater than VIII (e.g. Arenas del Rey IX-X, Torrevieja IX-X). A recent example was the 2011 Lorca earthquake, that with moderate magnitudes and intensities (magnitude Mw 5.2, intensity VI) it struck a populated area with old historic buildings and a population unprepared (9 victims, 324 injured, 1,200 million in reparations). In this earthquake many errors were found in the behavior of the population and in the basic self-protection measures. Many countries have educational programs that significantly reduce the damage and losses caused by earthquakes. The objective of this project (Dimerisk project) is to generate training and educational materials that help mitigate the damage and losses caused by earthquakes. This project is based on plans of experienced countries (e.g. U.S.A., Italy, Mexico, New Zealand) but having into account the mistakes made in the last earthquake in Spain, and also the characteristics of the Spanish educational system and building characteristics. This project has been founded by FUNDACION MAPFRE. The team is formed by geologist, earthquake researchers and teachers at secondary schools and universities. The ultimate goal is to generate material that can inform about the seismic and geological processes that participate in an earthquake and the basics of self-protection against earthquakes. This project has focused on scenarios (offices, factories, homes, education centers) and educational levels (schools, colleges and universities). Educational materials have been also developed for different educational levels with basic concepts related to seismicity, how to behave during an

  2. Site Specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis for Surrounding Communities of The Geysers Geothermal Development Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miah, M.; Hutchings, L. J.; Savy, J. B.

    2014-12-01

    We conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis from induced and tectonic earthquakes for a 50 km radius area centered on The Geysers, California and for the next ten years. We calculate hazard with both a conventional and physics-based approach. We estimate site specific hazard. We convert hazard to risk of nuisance and damage to structures per year and map the risk. For the conventional PSHA we assume the past ten years is indicative of hazard for the next ten years from Mnoise. Then, we interpolate within each geologic unit in finely gridded points. All grid points within a unit are weighted by distance from each data collection point. The entire process is repeated for all of the other types of geologic units until the entire area is gridded and assigned a hazard value for every grid points. We found that nuisance and damage risks calculated by both conventional and physics-based approaches provided almost identical results. This is very surprising since they were calculated by completely independent means. The conventional approach used the actual catalog of the past ten years of earthquakes to estimate the hazard for the next ten year. While the physics-based approach used geotechnical modeling to calculate the catalog for the next ten years. Similarly, for the conventional PSHA, we utilized attenuation relations from past earthquakes recorded at the Geysers to translate the ground motion from the source to the site. While for the physics-based approach we calculated ground motion from simulation of actual earthquake rupture. Finally, the source of the earthquakes was the actual source for the conventional PSHA. While, we assumed random fractures for the physics-based approach. From all this, we consider the calculation of the conventional approach, based on actual data, to validate the physics-based approach used.

  3. Probabilistic Modeling of Seismic Risk Based Design for a Dual System Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Sidi, Indra Djati

    2017-01-01

    The dual system structure concept has gained popularity in the construction of high-rise buildings over the last decades. Meanwhile, earthquake engineering design provisions for buildings have moved from the uniform hazard concept to the uniform risk concept upon recognizing the uncertainties involved in the earthquake resistance of concrete structures. In this study, a probabilistic model for the evaluation of such risk is proposed for a dual system structure consisting of shear walls or cor...

  4. An-integrated seismic approach to de-risk hydrocarbon accumulation for Pliocene deep marine slope channels, offshore West Nile Delta, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, Adel A. A.; Bakr, Ali; Maher, Ali

    2017-12-01

    The Nile Delta basin is a hydrocarbon rich province that has hydrocarbon accumulations generated from biogenic and thermogenic source rocks and trapped in a clastic channel reservoirs ranging in age from Pliocene to Early Cretaceous. Currently, the offshore Nile Delta is the most active exploration and development province in Egypt. The main challenge of the studied area is that we have only one well in a channel system exceeds fifteen km length, where seismic reservoir characterization is used to de-risk development scenarios for the field by discriminating between gas sand, water sand and shale. Extracting the gas-charged geobody from the seismic data is magnificent input for 3D reservoir static modelling. Seismic data, being non-stationary in nature, have varying frequency content in time. Spectral decomposition analysis unravels the seismic signal into its initial constituent frequencies. Frequency decomposition of a seismic signal aims to characterize the time-dependent frequency response of subsurface rocks and reservoirs for imaging and mapping of bed thickness, geologic discontinuities and channel connectivity. Inversion feasibility study using crossplot between P-wave impedance (Ip) and S-wave impedance (Is) which derived from well logs (P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density) is applied to investigate which inversion type would be sufficient enough to discriminate between gas sand, water sand and shale. Integration between spectral analysis, inversion results and Ip vs. Is crossplot cutoffs help to generate 3D lithofacies cubes, which used to extract gas sand and water sand geobodies, which is extremely wonderful for constructing facies depositional static model in area with unknown facies distribution and sand connectivity. Therefore de-risking hydrocarbon accumulation and GIIP estimation for the field became more confident for drilling new development wells.

  5. A Framework for Seismic Design of Items in Safety-Critical Facilities for Implementing a Risk-Informed Defense-in-Depth-Based Concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatsuya Itoi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, especially after the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the need for treating residual risks and cliff-edge effects in safety-critical facilities has been widely recognized as an extremely important issue. In this article, the sophistication of seismic designs in safety-critical facilities is discussed from the viewpoint of mitigating the consequences of accidents, such as the avoidance of cliff-edge effects. For this purpose, the implementation of a risk-informed defense-in-depth-based framework is proposed in this study. A basic framework that utilizes diversity in the dynamic characteristics of items and also provides additional seismic margin to items important for safety when needed is proposed to prevent common cause failure and to avoid cliff-edge effects as far as practicable. The proposed method is demonstrated to be effective using an example calculation.

  6. Seismic, high wind, tornado, and probabilistic risk assessment of the high flux isotope reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, S.P.; Hashimoto, P.S.; Dizon, J.O.; Hashimoto, P.S.

    1989-01-01

    Natural phenomena analyses were performed on the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations were made to determine the risks resulting from earthquakes, high winds, and tornadoes. Analytic methods in conjunction with field evaluations and an earthquake experience data base evaluation methods were used to provide more realistic results in a shorter amount of time. Plant modifications completed in preparation for HFIR restart and potential future enhancements are discussed

  7. Seismic, high wind, tornado, and probabilistic risk assessments of the High Flux Isotope Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, S.P.; Stover, R.L.; Hashimoto, P.S.; Dizon, J.O.

    1989-01-01

    Natural phenomena analyses were performed on the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations were made to determine the risks resulting from earthquakes, high winds, and tornadoes. Analytic methods in conjunction with field evaluations and an earthquake experience data base evaluation methods were used to provide more realistic results in a shorter amount of time. Plant modifications completed in preparation for HFIR restart and potential future enhancements are discussed. 5 figs

  8. Communicating Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale Gas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoblauch, Theresa A K; Stauffacher, Michael; Trutnevyte, Evelina

    2018-04-01

    Subsurface energy activities entail the risk of induced seismicity including low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) events. For designing respective risk communication, the scientific literature lacks empirical evidence of how the public reacts to different written risk communication formats about such LPHC events and to related uncertainty or expert confidence. This study presents findings from an online experiment (N = 590) that empirically tested the public's responses to risk communication about induced seismicity and to different technology frames, namely deep geothermal energy (DGE) and shale gas (between-subject design). Three incrementally different formats of written risk communication were tested: (i) qualitative, (ii) qualitative and quantitative, and (iii) qualitative and quantitative with risk comparison. Respondents found the latter two the easiest to understand, the most exact, and liked them the most. Adding uncertainty and expert confidence statements made the risk communication less clear, less easy to understand and increased concern. Above all, the technology for which risks are communicated and its acceptance mattered strongly: respondents in the shale gas condition found the identical risk communication less trustworthy and more concerning than in the DGE conditions. They also liked the risk communication overall less. For practitioners in DGE or shale gas projects, the study shows that the public would appreciate efforts in describing LPHC risks with numbers and optionally risk comparisons. However, there seems to be a trade-off between aiming for transparency by disclosing uncertainty and limited expert confidence, and thereby decreasing clarity and increasing concern in the view of the public. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Educational Approach to Seismic Risk Mitigation in Indian Himalayas -Hazard Map Making Workshops at High Schools-

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koketsu, K.; Oki, S.; Kimura, M.; Chadha, R. K.; Davuluri, S.

    2014-12-01

    How can we encourage people to take preventive measures against damage risks and empower them to take the right actions in emergencies to save their lives? The conventional approach taken by scientists had been disseminating intelligible information on up-to-date seismological knowledge. However, it has been proven that knowledge alone does not have enough impact to modify people's behaviors in emergencies (Oki and Nakayachi, 2012). On the other hand, the conventional approach taken by practitioners had been to conduct emergency drills at schools or workplaces. The loss of many lives from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake has proven that these emergency drills were not enough to save people's lives, unless they were empowered to assess the given situation on their own and react flexibly. Our challenge is to bridge the gap between knowledge and practice. With reference to best practices observed in Tohoku, such as The Miracles of Kamaishi, our endeavor is to design an effective Disaster Preparedness Education Program that is applicable to other disaster-prone regions in the world, even with different geological, socio-economical and cultural backgrounds. The key concepts for this new approach are 1) empowering individuals to take preventive actions to save their lives, 2) granting community-based understanding of disaster risks and 3) building a sense of reality and relevancy to disasters. With these in mind, we held workshops at some high schools in the Lesser Himalayan Region, combining lectures with an activity called "Hazard Map Making" where students proactively identify and assess the hazards around their living areas and learn practical strategies on how to manage risks. We observed the change of awareness of the students by conducting a preliminary questionnaire survey and interviews after each session. Results strongly implied that the significant change of students' attitudes towards disaster preparedness occurred not by the lectures of scientific knowledge, but

  10. Seismic Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The paper is devoted to researches of influence of seismic actions for industrial and civil buildings and people. The seismic actions bring influence directly on the people (vibration actions, force shocks at earthquakes) or indirectly through various build- ings and the constructions and can be strong (be felt by people) and weak (be fixed by sensing devices). The great number of work is devoted to influence of violent seismic actions (first of all of earthquakes) on people and various constructions. This work is devoted to study weak, but long seismic actions on various buildings and people. There is a need to take into account seismic oscillations, acting on the territory, at construction of various buildings on urbanized territories. Essential influence, except for violent earthquakes, man-caused seismic actions: the explosions, seismic noise, emitted by plant facilities and moving transport, radiation from high-rise buildings and constructions under action of a wind, etc. can exert. Materials on increase of man- caused seismicity in a number of regions in Russia, which earlier were not seismic, are presented in the paper. Along with maps of seismic microzoning maps to be built indicating a variation of amplitude spectra of seismic noise within day, months, years. The presence of an information about amplitudes and frequencies of oscillations from possible earthquakes and man-caused oscillations in concrete regions allows carry- ing out soundly designing and construction of industrial and civil housing projects. The construction of buildings even in not seismically dangerous regions, which have one from resonance frequencies coincident on magnitude to frequency of oscillations, emitted in this place by man-caused objects, can end in failure of these buildings and heaviest consequences for the people. The practical examples of detail of engineering- seismological investigation of large industrial and civil housing projects of Siberia territory (hydro power

  11. A new seismic station in Romania the Bucovina seismic array

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grigore, Adrian; Grecu, Bogdan; Ionescu, Constantin; Ghica, Daniela; Popa, Mihaela; Rizescu, Mihaela

    2002-01-01

    Recently, a new seismic monitoring station, the Bucovina Seismic Array, has been established in the northern part of Romania, in a joint effort of the Air Force Technical Applications Center, USA, and the National Institute for Earth Physics, Romania. The array consists of 10 seismic sensors (9 short-period and one broad band) located in boreholes and distributed in a 5 x 5 km area. On July 24, 2002 the official Opening Ceremony of Bucovina Seismic Array took place in the area near the city of Campulung Moldovenesc in the presence of Romanian Prime Minister, Adrian Nastase. Starting with this date, the new seismic monitoring system became fully operational by continuous recording and transmitting data in real-time to the National Data Center of Romania, in Bucharest and to the National Data Center of USA, in Florida. Bucovina Seismic Array, added to the present Seismic Network, will provide much better seismic monitoring coverage of Romania's territory, on-scale recording for weak-to-strong events, and will contribute to advanced seismological studies on seismic hazard and risk, local effects and microzonation, seismic source physics, Earth structure. (authors)

  12. Using 3D Reflection Seismics for Deep Platinum Mine Planning and Risk Mitigation: A Case Study from the Bushveld Complex, South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheiber-Enslin, S. E.; Manzi, M. S.; Webb, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Loss-of-ground in mining is a common problem. Using the integration of high resolution aeromagnetic and 3D reflection seismic data to delineate the causative geological features allows for more efficient mine planning and risk reduction. High resolution data from Impala Platinum mine in the western Bushveld Complex are used to image potholes, iron-rich ultramafic pegmatoids (IRUPs), faults, dykes and diapirs that may impact the economic horizons (UG2). Imaging of these structures was previously limited to outcrop, both on surface and underground, as well as 2D seismic data. These high resolution seismic data are able to resolve faults with throws as small as 10 m. A diapir is imaged in the southwest of the study area with a diameter of approximately 6 km. The diapir has a depth extend of around 4 km below the UG2 horizon and displaces the horizon by 350 m. It has been suggested that topographic highs in the Transvaal Supergroup basement initiate the formation of these diapirs as new magma is injected into the chamber. The origin of the diapir within the layered basement rocks, and disruption of layering within the complex is visible on the seismic section. In the north of the study area a large region of slumping or several merged potholes is identified that is up to 2.5 km in length, with up to 700 m of vertical displacement. Ductile deformation that formed the potholes is imaged on the seismic section, with the UG2 cutting down into the footwall. However, brittle deformation of the UG2 is also imaged with faulting at the edges of the regions of slumping. The edges of these slump regions are also characterised by the emplacement of iron-rich ultramafic pegmatoids (IRUPs), which show up as regions of diffuse reflectivity on the seismic data and magnetic highs. The proximity of these faults and IRUPs to the edges of the slump structure brings in to question whether they contribute to pothole formation. The diapir and slump structure displaces the economic UG2

  13. Seismic fragility analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostov, Marin

    2000-01-01

    In the last two decades there is increasing number of probabilistic seismic risk assessments performed. The basic ideas of the procedure for performing a Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of critical structures (NUREG/CR-2300, 1983) could be used also for normal industrial and residential buildings, dams or other structures. The general formulation of the risk assessment procedure applied in this investigation is presented in Franzini, et al., 1984. The probability of failure of a structure for an expected lifetime (for example 50 years) can be obtained from the annual frequency of failure, β E determined by the relation: β E ∫[d[β(x)]/dx]P(flx)dx. β(x) is the annual frequency of exceedance of load level x (for example, the variable x may be peak ground acceleration), P(fI x) is the conditional probability of structure failure at a given seismic load level x. The problem leads to the assessment of the seismic hazard β(x) and the fragility P(fl x). The seismic hazard curves are obtained by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The fragility curves are obtained after the response of the structure is defined as probabilistic and its capacity and the associated uncertainties are assessed. Finally the fragility curves are combined with the seismic loading to estimate the frequency of failure for each critical scenario. The frequency of failure due to seismic event is presented by the scenario with the highest frequency. The tools usually applied for probabilistic safety analyses of critical structures could relatively easily be adopted to ordinary structures. The key problems are the seismic hazard definitions and the fragility analyses. The fragility could be derived either based on scaling procedures or on the base of generation. Both approaches have been presented in the paper. After the seismic risk (in terms of failure probability) is assessed there are several approaches for risk reduction. Generally the methods could be classified in two groups. The

  14. Seismic fragility capacity of equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iijima, Toru; Abe, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Kenichi

    2006-01-01

    Seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is an available method to evaluate residual risks of nuclear plants that are designed on definitive seismic conditions. From our preliminary seismic PSA analysis, horizontal shaft pumps are important components that have significant influences on the core damage frequency (CDF). An actual horizontal shaft pump and some kinds of elements were tested to evaluate realistic fragility capacities. Our test results showed that the realistic fragility capacity of horizontal shaft pump would be at least four times as high as a current value, 1.6 x 9.8 m/s 2 , used for our seismic PSA. We are going to incorporate the fragility capacity data that were obtained from those tests into our seismic PSA analysis, and we expect that the reliability of seismic PSA should increase. (author)

  15. Seismic hazard assessment of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ghafory-Ashtiany

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the historical earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity and seismic source models in Iran. These maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Iran in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines, and seismic hazard zoning, by using current probabilistic procedures. They display the probabilistic estimates of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA for the return periods of 75 and 475 years. The maps have been divided into intervals of 0.25 degrees in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions to calculate the peak ground acceleration values at each grid point and draw the seismic hazard curves. The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps, the estimation of earthquake insurance premiums, and the preliminary site evaluation of critical facilities.

  16. Methodology for seismic PSA of NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jirsa, P.

    1999-09-01

    A general methodology is outlined for seismic PSA (probabilistic safety assessment). The main objectives of seismic PSA include: description of the course of an event; understanding the most probable failure sequences; gaining insight into the overall probability of reactor core damage; identification of the main seismic risk contributors; identification of the range of peak ground accelerations contributing significantly to the plant risk; and comparison of the seismic risk with risks from other events. The results of seismic PSA are typically compared with those of internal PSA and of PSA of other external events. If the results of internal and external PSA are available, sensitivity studies and cost benefit analyses are performed prior to any decision regarding corrective actions. If the seismic PSA involves analysis of the containment, useful information can be gained regarding potential seismic damage of the containment. (P.A.)

  17. Establishing seismic design criteria to achieve an acceptable seismic margin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.

    1997-01-01

    In order to develop a risk based seismic design criteria the following four issues must be addressed: (1) What target annual probability of seismic induced unacceptable performance is acceptable? (2). What minimum seismic margin is acceptable? (3) Given the decisions made under Issues 1 and 2, at what annual frequency of exceedance should the Safe Shutdown Earthquake ground motion be defined? (4) What seismic design criteria should be established to reasonably achieve the seismic margin defined under Issue 2? The first issue is purely a policy decision and is not addressed in this paper. Each of the other three issues are addressed. Issues 2 and 3 are integrally tied together so that a very large number of possible combinations of responses to these two issues can be used to achieve the target goal defined under Issue 1. Section 2 lays out a combined approach to these two issues and presents three potentially attractive combined resolutions of these two issues which reasonably achieves the target goal. The remainder of the paper discusses an approach which can be used to develop seismic design criteria aimed at achieving the desired seismic margin defined in resolution of Issue 2. Suggestions for revising existing seismic design criteria to more consistently achieve the desired seismic margin are presented

  18. Role of seismic PRA in seismic safety decisions of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravindra, M.K.; Kennedy, R.P.; Sues, R.H.

    1985-01-01

    This paper highlights the important roles that seismic probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) can play in the seismic safety decisions of nuclear power plants. If a seismic PRA has been performed for a plant, its results can be utilized to evaluate the seismic capability beyond the safe shutdown event (SSE). Seismic fragilities of key structures and equipment, fragilities of dominant plant damage states and the frequencies of occurrence of these plant damage states are reviewed to establish the seismic safety of the plant beyond the SSE level. Guidelines for seismic margin reviews and upgrading may be developed by first identifying the generic classes of structures and equipment that have been shown to be dominant risk contributors in the completed seismic PRAs, studying the underlying causes for their contribution and examining why certain other items (e.g., piping) have not proved to be high-risk-contributors

  19. Quake warnings, seismic culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Richard M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Huggins, Tom; Miles, Scott; Otegui, Diego

    2017-01-01

    Since 1990, nearly one million people have died from the impacts of earthquakes. Reducing those impacts requires building a local seismic culture in which residents are aware of earthquake risks and value efforts to mitigate harm. Such efforts include earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that provide seconds to minutes notice of pending shaking. Recent events in Mexico provide an opportunity to assess performance and perception of an EEW system and highlight areas for further improvement. We have learned that EEW systems, even imperfect ones, can help people prepare for earthquakes and build local seismic culture, both beneficial in reducing earthquake-related losses.

  20. SWEIS Yearbook-2012 Comparison of 2012 Data to Projections of the 2008 Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement for Continued Operation of Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahowald, Hallie B. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Wright, Marjorie Alys [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-01-16

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory) operations data for Calendar Year (CY) 2012 mostly fell within the 2008 Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement (SWEIS) projections. Operation levels for one LANL facility exceeded the 2008 SWEIS capability projections—Radiochemistry Facility; however, none of the capability increases caused exceedances in radioactive air emissions, waste generation, or National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) discharge. Several facilities exceeded the2008 SWEIS levels for waste generation quantities; however, all were one-time, non-routine events that do not reflect the day-to-day operations of the Laboratory. In addition, total site-wide waste generation quantities were below SWEIS projections for all waste types, reflecting the overall levels of operations at both the Key and Non-Key Facilities. Although gas and electricity consumption have remained within the 2008 SWEIS limits for utilities, water consumption exceeded the 2008 SWEIS projections by 27 million gallons in CY 2012.

  1. Collaborative Russian-US work in nuclear material protection, control and accounting at the Institute of Physics and Power Engineering. 3: Emphasis on site-wide issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzin, V.V.; Pshakin, G.M.; Belov, A.P.

    1997-07-01

    During 1997, collaborative Russian-US nuclear material protection, control, and accounting (MPC and A) tasks at the Institute of Physics and Power Engineering (IPPE) in Obninsk, Russia are focusing increasingly on site-wide issues, though there is continued work at several major facilities: the Fast Critical Facility, the Technological Laboratory for Fuel Fabrication, and the (new and existing) Central Storage Facility. The collaborative work is being done with US Department of Energy National Laboratories. IPPE's emphasis on site-wide issues has resulted in the formation of a separate division for MPC and A. This new division reports directly to the IPPE Chief Engineer. It is a separate scientific and engineering operating division responsible for coordination and harmonization of MPC and A at IPPE, as well as for audit, assessment and inspection. By virtue of the organizational independence of this new division, IPPE has significantly strengthened the role of MPC and A. Two specific site-wide accomplishments are the consolidation of nuclear material from many buildings to a smaller number, and, as a major part of this strategy, the construction of a nuclear island surrounding the Fast Critical Facility and the new Central Storage Facility. Most of IPPE's weapons-grade nuclear materials will be concentrated within the nuclear island. The paper summarizes the following technical elements: computerized accounting, bar coding, weight measurements, gamma-ray measurements, tamper indicating devices, procedures for physical inventory taking and material balance closure, and video monitoring systems for storage and critical assembly areas

  2. Seismic risk assessment of building based on damaged database of 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake; Hyogoken nanbu jishin no hisai database wo mochiita kenchikubutsu no jishin risk hyoka ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suwa, H.; Nobata, A.; Seki, M. [Obayashi Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    2000-01-10

    The objective of this paper is to evaluate a vulnerability function and a repair cost in terms of each structural damage level based on the damaged database of the 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe is calculated through the analytical results. As a result, the following are verified : 1. The expectation of vulnerability function, in which peak ground acceleration is taken for seismic intensity, is about 550 cm/s{sup 2} for minor damage, about 700 cm/s{sup 2} for moderate damage, and about 950 cm/s{sup 2} for major damage respectively. However, the coefficient of variation (C. O. V. ) is about 0.5 for all damage levels. 2. The expectation of repair cost per square meter is about 29000 yen for minor damage, about 60000 yen for moderate damage, and about 64000 yen for major damage respectively. However, the variation is very large, for example, the C. O. V. for repair cost varies from 1.2 to 1.6. 3. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe, that is normalized by new construction cost, is about three percent on condition that the design lifetime is assumed to be 50 years. (author)

  3. Feasibility study of a probabilistic method in seismic risk assessment. Application to the South-East of France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goula, Xavier.

    1980-09-01

    The analysis of the seismic hazard has given rise to the publication of the methods used in various countries (Cornell, 1968 - McGuire, 1977 - Saegesser, 1978). The purpose of this study is to examine the application of such methods to a concrete case in France. The choice fell on the south-eastern region where seismic data are relatively plentiful. The analysis includes the following stages: (1) collating historical seismic data for the region in question, (2) defining the source-areas where the historic earthquakes show similarities with respect to the decrease in intensity depending on the epicentral distance, (3) delimitating new source-areas, covering the entire region and, for each one, defining the mean frequencies of the occurrence of earthquakes of different epicentral intensities per annum and per sq.km. for each area, (4) for a given point, and possibly for the whole region, the local effects linked to the source-areas taken as a whole are aggregated with the mean propagation laws, by integrating in the analysis the uncertainties due to the adjustments of these laws to the experimental data. It would appear that in such a method the description of the sources by the magnitudes has been abandoned; for each area an earthquake shock is entirely described by its epicentral intensity and by a mean depth determined as from the configuration of the isoseists of the earthquake shocks interpreted according to an accepted model [fr

  4. The Sacred Mountain of Varallo in Italy: Seismic Risk Assessment by Acoustic Emission and Structural Numerical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Carpinteri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We examine an application of Acoustic Emission (AE technique for a probabilistic analysis in time and space of earthquakes, in order to preserve the valuable Italian Renaissance Architectural Complex named “The Sacred Mountain of Varallo.” Among the forty-five chapels of the Renaissance Complex, the structure of the Chapel XVII is of particular concern due to its uncertain structural condition and due to the level of stress caused by the regional seismicity. Therefore, lifetime assessment, taking into account the evolution of damage phenomena, is necessary to preserve the reliability and safety of this masterpiece of cultural heritage. A continuous AE monitoring was performed to assess the structural behavior of the Chapel. During the monitoring period, a correlation between peaks of AE activity in the masonry of the “Sacred Mountain of Varallo” and regional seismicity was found. Although the two phenomena take place on very different scales, the AE in materials and the earthquakes in Earth’s crust, belong to the same class of invariance. In addition, an accurate finite element model, performed with DIANA finite element code, is presented to describe the dynamic behavior of Chapel XVII structure, confirming visual and instrumental inspections of regional seismic effects.

  5. The Sacred Mountain of Varallo in Italy: seismic risk assessment by acoustic emission and structural numerical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpinteri, Alberto; Lacidogna, Giuseppe; Invernizzi, Stefano; Accornero, Federico

    2013-01-01

    We examine an application of Acoustic Emission (AE) technique for a probabilistic analysis in time and space of earthquakes, in order to preserve the valuable Italian Renaissance Architectural Complex named "The Sacred Mountain of Varallo." Among the forty-five chapels of the Renaissance Complex, the structure of the Chapel XVII is of particular concern due to its uncertain structural condition and due to the level of stress caused by the regional seismicity. Therefore, lifetime assessment, taking into account the evolution of damage phenomena, is necessary to preserve the reliability and safety of this masterpiece of cultural heritage. A continuous AE monitoring was performed to assess the structural behavior of the Chapel. During the monitoring period, a correlation between peaks of AE activity in the masonry of the "Sacred Mountain of Varallo" and regional seismicity was found. Although the two phenomena take place on very different scales, the AE in materials and the earthquakes in Earth's crust, belong to the same class of invariance. In addition, an accurate finite element model, performed with DIANA finite element code, is presented to describe the dynamic behavior of Chapel XVII structure, confirming visual and instrumental inspections of regional seismic effects.

  6. Perception of seismic risk in the new Anthropocene geological era. A comparison between two case-studies: Calabria (South Italy) and Malta

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Pascale, Francesco; Bernardo, Marcello; Muto, Francesco; D'Amico, Sebastiano; Zumbo, Rosarianna; Galea, Pauline; Agius, Matthew

    2014-05-01

    About two centuries ago, the Earth entered the Anthropocene, a new geological epoch in which man has a marked impact on climate and the environment. In comparison with the slow passing of previous millennia, our species has, in a very short time, radically altered the world's ecosystems. For some years now, interest in Italy has been increasing in Geoethics and the ethical, sociological and cultural implications of Earth Sciences. This involves amplifying the prospects and expectations of Geosciences and highlighting the fundamental role of geological and geographical studies in finding solutions to the practical problems that man faces which are also compatible with the preservation of nature and the planet. Indeed, man can even be an active participant in natural catastrophes in the sense that he is able to amplify the damage and natural dynamics. On the other hand, as much as these phenomena can only be foreseen to a limited extent, intervention is possible with regards the parameters of risk which are dependent upon anthropisation, such as those of vulnerability and exposed value that mark the difference between a natural event and a calamity. Therefore, through information about and knowledge of risk, it is possible to keep damage to a minimum by refining techniques of prevision and prevention. Geographical studies orientated towards examining descriptive natural elements and analysing social behaviour when people are faced with natural risks generated by assumed given and exogenous sources can be historically placed within the area of research into the perception of natural risk. In this context, a questionnaire was given to primary and middle school pupils in an area of Calabria which has recently been affected by an on-going seismic sequence, widely felt by the population. The same questionnaire was given to students in Malta, a zone of low-to-moderate seismic hazard where earthquake awareness is not culturally strong. The Maltese islands have, however

  7. Seismic component fragility data base for IPEEE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandyopadhyay, K.; Hofmayer, C.

    1990-01-01

    Seismic probabilistic risk assessment or a seismic margin study will require a reliable data base of seismic fragility of various equipment classes. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has selected a group of equipment and generically evaluated the seismic fragility of each equipment class by use of existing test data. This paper briefly discusses the evaluation methodology and the fragility results. The fragility analysis results when used in the Individual Plant Examination for External Events (IPEEE) Program for nuclear power plants are expected to provide insights into seismic vulnerabilities of equipment for earthquakes beyond the design basis. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  8. Overview of seismic margin insights gained from seismic PRA results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.; Sues, R.H.; Campbell, R.D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a study conducted under NRC and EPRI sponsorship in which published seismic PRAs were reviewed in order to gain insight to the seismic margins inherent in existing nuclear plants. The approach taken was to examine the fragilities of those components which have been found to be dominant contributors to seismic risk at plants in low-to-moderate seismic regions (SSE levels between 0.12g and 0.25g). It is concluded that there is significant margin inherent in the capacity of most critical components above the plant design basis. For ground motions less than about 0.3g, the predominant sources of seismic risk are loss of offsite power coupled with random failure of the emergency diesels, non-recoverable circuit breaker trip due to relay chatter, unanchored equipment, unreinforced non-load bearing block walls, vertical water storage tanks, systems interactions and possibly soil liquefaction. Recommendations as to which components should be reviewed in seismic margin studies for margin earthquakes less than 0.3g, between 0.3g and 0.5g, and greater than 0.5g, developed by the NRC expert panel on the quantification of seismic margins (based on the review of past PRA data, earthquake experience data, and their own personal experience) are presented

  9. Seismic Data Gathering and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Three recent earthquakes in the last seven years have exceeded their design basis earthquake values (so it is implied that damage to SSC’s should have occurred). These seismic events were recorded at North Anna (August 2011, detailed information provided in [Virginia Electric and Power Company Memo]), Fukushima Daichii and Daini (March 2011 [TEPCO 1]), and Kaswazaki-Kariwa (2007, [TEPCO 2]). However, seismic walk downs at some of these plants indicate that very little damage occurred to safety class systems and components due to the seismic motion. This report presents seismic data gathered for two of the three events mentioned above and recommends a path for using that data for two purposes. One purpose is to determine what margins exist in current industry standard seismic soil-structure interaction (SSI) tools. The second purpose is the use the data to validated seismic site response tools and SSI tools. The gathered data represents free field soil and in-structure acceleration time histories data. Gathered data also includes elastic and dynamic soil properties and structural drawings. Gathering data and comparing with existing models has potential to identify areas of uncertainty that should be removed from current seismic analysis and SPRA approaches. Removing uncertainty (to the extent possible) from SPRA’s will allow NPP owners to make decisions on where to reduce risk. Once a realistic understanding of seismic response is established for a nuclear power plant (NPP) then decisions on needed protective measures, such as SI, can be made.

  10. Seismic Isolation Working Meeting Gap Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Sabharwall, Piyush [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-09-01

    The ultimate goal in nuclear facility and nuclear power plant operations is operating safety during normal operations and maintaining core cooling capabilities during off-normal events including external hazards. Understanding the impact external hazards, such as flooding and earthquakes, have on nuclear facilities and NPPs is critical to deciding how to manage these hazards to expectable levels of risk. From a seismic risk perspective the goal is to manage seismic risk. Seismic risk is determined by convolving the seismic hazard with seismic fragilities (capacity of systems, structures, and components (SSCs)). There are large uncertainties associated with evolving nature of the seismic hazard curves. Additionally there are requirements within DOE and potential requirements within NRC to reconsider updated seismic hazard curves every 10 years. Therefore opportunity exists for engineered solutions to manage this seismic uncertainty. One engineered solution is seismic isolation. Current seismic isolation (SI) designs (used in commercial industry) reduce horizontal earthquake loads and protect critical infrastructure from the potentially destructive effects of large earthquakes. The benefit of SI application in the nuclear industry is being recognized and SI systems have been proposed, in the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 4 standard, to be released in 2014, for Light Water Reactors (LWR) facilities using commercially available technology. However, there is a lack of industry application to the nuclear industry and uncertainty with implementing the procedures outlined in ASCE-4. Opportunity exists to determine barriers associated with implementation of current ASCE-4 standard language.

  11. Seismic Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. Quittmeyer

    2006-09-25

    This technical work plan (TWP) describes the efforts to develop and confirm seismic ground motion inputs used for preclosure design and probabilistic safety 'analyses and to assess the postclosure performance of a repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. As part of the effort to develop seismic inputs, the TWP covers testing and analyses that provide the technical basis for inputs to the seismic ground-motion site-response model. The TWP also addresses preparation of a seismic methodology report for submission to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The activities discussed in this TWP are planned for fiscal years (FY) 2006 through 2008. Some of the work enhances the technical basis for previously developed seismic inputs and reduces uncertainties and conservatism used in previous analyses and modeling. These activities support the defense of a license application. Other activities provide new results that will support development of the preclosure, safety case; these results directly support and will be included in the license application. Table 1 indicates which activities support the license application and which support licensing defense. The activities are listed in Section 1.2; the methods and approaches used to implement them are discussed in more detail in Section 2.2. Technical and performance objectives of this work scope are: (1) For annual ground motion exceedance probabilities appropriate for preclosure design analyses, provide site-specific seismic design acceleration response spectra for a range of damping values; strain-compatible soil properties; peak motions, strains, and curvatures as a function of depth; and time histories (acceleration, velocity, and displacement). Provide seismic design inputs for the waste emplacement level and for surface sites. Results should be consistent with the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Yucca Mountain and reflect, as appropriate, available knowledge on the limits to extreme ground

  12. Seismic Studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R. Quittmeyer

    2006-01-01

    This technical work plan (TWP) describes the efforts to develop and confirm seismic ground motion inputs used for preclosure design and probabilistic safety 'analyses and to assess the postclosure performance of a repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. As part of the effort to develop seismic inputs, the TWP covers testing and analyses that provide the technical basis for inputs to the seismic ground-motion site-response model. The TWP also addresses preparation of a seismic methodology report for submission to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The activities discussed in this TWP are planned for fiscal years (FY) 2006 through 2008. Some of the work enhances the technical basis for previously developed seismic inputs and reduces uncertainties and conservatism used in previous analyses and modeling. These activities support the defense of a license application. Other activities provide new results that will support development of the preclosure, safety case; these results directly support and will be included in the license application. Table 1 indicates which activities support the license application and which support licensing defense. The activities are listed in Section 1.2; the methods and approaches used to implement them are discussed in more detail in Section 2.2. Technical and performance objectives of this work scope are: (1) For annual ground motion exceedance probabilities appropriate for preclosure design analyses, provide site-specific seismic design acceleration response spectra for a range of damping values; strain-compatible soil properties; peak motions, strains, and curvatures as a function of depth; and time histories (acceleration, velocity, and displacement). Provide seismic design inputs for the waste emplacement level and for surface sites. Results should be consistent with the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Yucca Mountain and reflect, as appropriate, available knowledge on the limits to extreme ground motion at

  13. Seismic protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, R.

    1988-01-01

    To ensure that a nuclear reactor or other damage-susceptible installation is, so far as possible, tripped and already shut down before the arrival of an earthquake shock at its location, a ring of monitoring seismic sensors is provided around it, each sensor being spaced from it by a distance (possibly several kilometres) such that (taking into account the seismic-shock propagation velocity through the intervening ground) a shock monitored by the sensor and then advancing to the installation site will arrive there later than a warning signal emitted by the sensor and received at the installation, by an interval sufficient to allow the installation to trip and shut down, or otherwise assume an optimum anti-seismic mode, in response to the warning signal. Extra sensors located in boreholes may define effectively a three-dimensional (hemispherical) sensing boundary rather than a mere two-dimensional ring. (author)

  14. Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keranen, Katie M.; Weingarten, Matthew

    2018-05-01

    The ability of fluid-generated subsurface stress changes to trigger earthquakes has long been recognized. However, the dramatic rise in the rate of human-induced earthquakes in the past decade has created abundant opportunities to study induced earthquakes and triggering processes. This review briefly summarizes early studies but focuses on results from induced earthquakes during the past 10 years related to fluid injection in petroleum fields. Study of these earthquakes has resulted in insights into physical processes and has identified knowledge gaps and future research directions. Induced earthquakes are challenging to identify using seismological methods, and faults and reefs strongly modulate spatial and temporal patterns of induced seismicity. However, the similarity of induced and natural seismicity provides an effective tool for studying earthquake processes. With continuing development of energy resources, increased interest in carbon sequestration, and construction of large dams, induced seismicity will continue to pose a hazard in coming years.

  15. Aftershock Activity Triggered By the 2014 Earthquake (Mw=6.5), and Its Implications for the Future Seismic Risk in the Marmara Sea, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polat, O.; Kilic, T.; Turkoglu, M.; Kaplan, M.; Kilicarslan, O.; Özer, Ç.; Gok, E.

    2014-12-01

    Sea. The 2014 GI, 1999 Izmit (Mw=7.6) and 1912 earthquakes have partially broken NAF. It continues to break along the seismic gap in the Marmara Sea implying with a high seismic risk for Istanbul and its vicinity. It is not certain whether this seismic gap will break as a whole or as smaller segments.

  16. Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) by Multi-parametric Observations: Preliminary Results of PRIME experiment within the PRE-EARTHQUAKES EU-FP7 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramutoli, V.; Inan, S.; Jakowski, N.; Pulinets, S. A.; Romanov, A.; Filizzola, C.; Shagimuratov, I.; Pergola, N.; Ouzounov, D. P.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Parrot, M.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Alparlsan, E.; Wilken, V.; Tsybukia, K.; Romanov, A.; Paciello, R.; Zakharenkova, I.; Romano, G.

    2012-12-01

    The integration of different observations together with the refinement of data analysis methods, is generally expected to improve our present knowledge of preparatory phases of earthquakes and of their possible precursors. This is also the main goal of PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) the FP7 Project which, to this aim, committed together, different international expertise and observational capabilities, in the last 2 years. In the learning phase of the project, different parameters (e.g. thermal anomalies, total electron content, radon concentration, etc.), measured from ground and satellite systems and analyzed by using different data analysis approaches, have been studied for selected geographic areas and specific seismic events in the past. Since July 2012 the PRIME (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Real-time Integration and Monitoring Experiment) started attempting to perform, on the base of independent observations collected and integrated in real-time through the PEG (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Geo-portal), a Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) on selected geographic areas of Europe (Italy-Greece-Turkey) and Asia (Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Japan). In this paper, results so far achieved as well as the potential and opportunities they open for a worldwide Earthquake Observation System (EQuOS) - as a dedicated component of GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) - will be presented.

  17. Seismic Symphonies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strinna, Elisa; Ferrari, Graziano

    2015-04-01

    The project started in 2008 as a sound installation, a collaboration between an artist, a barrel organ builder and a seismologist. The work differs from other attempts of sound transposition of seismic records. In this case seismic frequencies are not converted automatically into the "sound of the earthquake." However, it has been studied a musical translation system that, based on the organ tonal scale, generates a totally unexpected sequence of sounds which is intended to evoke the emotions aroused by the earthquake. The symphonies proposed in the project have somewhat peculiar origins: they in fact come to life from the translation of graphic tracks into a sound track. The graphic tracks in question are made up by copies of seismograms recorded during some earthquakes that have taken place around the world. Seismograms are translated into music by a sculpture-instrument, half a seismograph and half a barrel organ. The organ plays through holes practiced on paper. Adapting the documents to the instrument score, holes have been drilled on the waves' peaks. The organ covers about three tonal scales, starting from heavy and deep sounds it reaches up to high and jarring notes. The translation of the seismic records is based on a criterion that does match the highest sounds to larger amplitudes with lower ones to minors. Translating the seismogram in the organ score, the larger the amplitude of recorded waves, the more the seismogram covers the full tonal scale played by the barrel organ and the notes arouse an intense emotional response in the listener. Elisa Strinna's Seismic Symphonies installation becomes an unprecedented tool for emotional involvement, through which can be revived the memory of the greatest disasters of over a century of seismic history of the Earth. A bridge between art and science. Seismic Symphonies is also a symbolic inversion: the instrument of the organ is most commonly used in churches, and its sounds are derived from the heavens and

  18. Long Period Seismic Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-08-01

    Geoffsica, TPHM. No. 5 , p. 161. Vargas, Freddy (To he published in 1976) 1 .-DTSCRP1TNACTON DE EVENTO«; NATHDALE«; Y ARTTFTCT ALES. 2.- CALCULO DEL...seismic risk, bv de - fininn relative weiqht of maximum MM intensity at a pivon distance ponulation density, area feolupy and attenuation of intensity wit...Population densitv, area peolopv and attenuation of intensitv with distance, is presented topether with a map anplvinp theorv to Bo- livia. ^«^a

  19. Implementation guidelines for seismic PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coman, Ovidiu; Samaddar, Sujit; Hibino, Kenta; )

    2014-01-01

    The presentation was devoted to development of guidelines for implementation of a seismic PSA. If successful, these guidelines can close an important gap. ASME/ANS PRA standards and the related IAEA Safety Guide (IAEA NS-G-2.13) describe capability requirements for seismic PSA in order to support risk-informed applications. However, practical guidance on how to meet these requirements is limited. Such guidelines could significantly contribute to improving risk-informed safety demonstration, safety management and decision making. Extensions of this effort to further PSA areas, particularly to PSA for other external hazards, can enhance risk-informed applications

  20. Seismicity and tectonics of Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossain, K.M.

    1989-05-01

    Northern and eastern Bangladesh and surrounding areas belong to a seismically active zone and are associated with the subduction of the Indian plate. The seismicity and tectonics have been studied in detail and the observations have been correlated to understand the earthquake phenomenon in the region. The morphotectonic behaviour of northern Bangladesh shows that it is deeply related to the movement of the Dauki fault system and relative upliftment of the Shillong plateau. Contemporary seismicity in the Dauki fault system is relatively quiet comparing to that in the Naga-Disang-Haflong thrust belt giving rise to the probability of sudden release of energy being accumulated in the vicinity of the Dauki fault system. This observation corresponds with the predicted average return period of a large earthquake (1897 type) and the possibility of M > 8 earthquake in the vicinity of the Dauki fault within this century should not be ruled out. The seismicity in the folded belt in the east follows the general trend of Arakan-Yoma anticlinorium and represents shallow and low-angled thrust movements in conformity with the field observation. Seismotectonic behaviour in the deep basin part of Bangladesh demonstrates that an intraplate movement in the basement rock has been taking place along the deep-seated faults causing relative upliftment and subsidence in the basin. Bangladesh has been divided into three seismic zones on the basis of morphotectonic and seismic behaviour. Zone-I has been identified as the zone of high seismic risk. (author). 43 refs, 5 figs, 3 tabs

  1. Program and plans of the U.S. Geological Survey for producing information needed in National Seismic hazards and risk assessment, fiscal years 1980-84

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Walter W.

    1979-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-124), the U.S. Geological Survey has developed comprehensive plans for producing information needed to assess seismic hazards and risk on a national scale in fiscal years 1980-84. These plans are based on a review of the needs of Federal Government agencies, State and local government agencies, engineers and scientists engaged in consulting and research, professional organizations and societies, model code groups, and others. The Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act provided an unprecedented opportunity for participation in a national program by representatives of State and local governments, business and industry, the design professions, and the research community. The USGS and the NSF (National Science Foundation) have major roles in the national program. The ultimate goal of the program is to reduce losses from earthquakes. Implementation of USGS research in the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program requires the close coordination of responsibility between Federal, State and local governments. The projected research plan in national seismic hazards and risk for fiscal years 1980-84 will be accomplished by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers. The latter group will participate through grants and contracts. The research plan calls for (1) national maps based on existing methods, (2) improved definition of earthquake source zones nationwide, (3) development of improved methodology, (4) regional maps based on the improved methodology, and (5) post-earthquake investigations. Maps and reports designed to meet the needs, priorities, concerns, and recommendations of various user groups will be the products of this research and provide the technical basis for improved implementation.

  2. Transient Inverse Calibration of Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts from 1943 to 1996-Alternative Conceptual Model Considering Interaction with Uppermost Basalt Confined Aquifer; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermeul, Vince R; Cole, Charles R; Bergeron, Marcel P; Thorne, Paul D; Wurstner, Signe K

    2001-01-01

    The baseline three-dimensional transient inverse model for the estimation of site-wide scale flow parameters, including their uncertainties, using data on the transient behavior of the unconfined aquifer system over the entire historical period of Hanford operations, has been modified to account for the effects of basalt intercommunication between the Hanford unconfined aquifer and the underlying upper basalt confined aquifer. Both the baseline and alternative conceptual models (ACM-1) considered only the groundwater flow component and corresponding observational data in the 3-Dl transient inverse calibration efforts. Subsequent efforts will examine both groundwater flow and transport. Comparisons of goodness of fit measures and parameter estimation results for the ACM-1 transient inverse calibrated model with those from previous site-wide groundwater modeling efforts illustrate that the new 3-D transient inverse model approach will strengthen the technical defensibility of the final model(s) and provide the ability to incorporate uncertainty in predictions related to both conceptual model and parameter uncertainty

  3. Seismic Discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-09-30

    were presumed nuclear explosions announced by ERDA. Of the last, 11 were at the Semipalatinsk test site , 2 at the Western Kazakh test site , 2 in Novaya...which will fulfill U.S. ob- ligations that may be incurred under a possible future Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. This report includes 9 contributions...which could assume U.S. seismic-data-management responsibilities in the event that international agreement is reached on a Comprehensive Test Ban

  4. Martian seismicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goins, N.R.; Lazarewicz, A.R.

    1979-01-01

    During the Viking mission to Mars, the seismometer on Lander II collected approximately 0.24 Earth years of observations data, excluding periods of time dominated by wind-induced Lander vibration. The ''quiet-time'' data set contains no confirmed seismic events. A proper assessment of the significance of this fact requires quantitative estimates of the expected detection rate of the Viking seismometer. The first step is to calculate the minimum magnitude event detectable at a given distance, including the effects of geometric spreading, anelastic attenuation, seismic signal duration, seismometer frequency response, and possible poor ground coupling. Assuming various numerical quantities and a Martian seismic activity comparable to that of intraplate earthquakes, the appropriate integral gives an expected annual detection rate of 10 events, nearly all of which are local. Thus only two to three events would be expected in the observational period presently on hand and the lack of observed events is not in gross contradiction to reasonable expectations. Given the same assumptions, a seismometer 20 times more sensitive than the present instrument would be expected to detect about 120 events annually

  5. Seismic Safety Guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eagling, D.G.

    1985-01-01

    The Seismic Safety Guide provides facilities managers with practical guidelines for administering a comprehensive earthquake safety program. Most facilities managers, unfamiliar with earthquake engineering, tend to look for answers in techniques more sophisticated than required to solve the actual problems in earthquake safety. Often the approach to solutions to these problems is so academic, legalistic, and financially overwhelming that mitigation of actual seismic hazards simply does not get done in a timely, cost-effective way. The objective of the Guide is to provide practical advice about earthquake safety so that managers and engineers can get the job done without falling into common pitfalls, prolonged diagnosis, and unnecessary costs. It is comprehensive with respect to earthquakes in that it covers the most important aspects of natural hazards, site planning, rehabilitation of existing buildings, design of new facilities, operational safety, emergency planning, non-structural elements, life lines, and risk management. 5 references

  6. Holistic seismic risk assessment of port of Spain: an integrated evaluation and tool in the framework of CAPRA

    OpenAIRE

    Carreño Tibaduiza, Martha Liliana; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Velasquez, Cesar A.; Salgado Galvez, Mario A.

    2014-01-01

    In recent years disaster risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a given period of time. However, in many cases, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way according to each scientific discipline involved in its estimation. In order to evaluate risk according to the above stated definition, a multidisciplinary evaluation is necessary. This evaluation should take into a...

  7. The SPOT Project (Potentially Triggerable Offshore Seismicity and Tsunamis): a First Appraisal of the Possible Impact of Oil and Gas Platforms on the Seismic and Tsunami Risks along the Italian Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basili, R.; Di Bucci, D.; Antoncecchi, I.; Ciccone, F.; Teofilo, G.; Argnani, A.; Rovere, M.; Ligi, M.; Coltelli, M.; Lorito, S.; Borzi, B.; Germagnoli, F.; Di Ludovico, M.; Lignola, G. P.; Prota, A.

    2017-12-01

    The majority of oil and gas production in Europe takes place offshore and Italy is one of the European countries with the longest coastlines facing these operations. Given the generally growing energy demand, and the increasing concern toward human-driven hazards, scientists are called to provide background information for helping ensure a safe energy supply. We here present the activities of the project SPOT, which is aimed to help Italian authorities comply with the application of the Safety of Offshore Oil and Gas Operations European Directive (2013/30/EU) and the ensuing Italian codes. We carry out a reconstruction of offshore geological structures to assess the existence of potentially seismogenic faults in the surroundings of off-shore platforms. This study is a propaedeutic step for the assessment of potentially triggered seismicity connected with operations on such platforms. The descriptive parameters (3D geometry and behavior) of the identified faults will be used to estimate their natural earthquake rates. The impact of these natural earthquakes along the coasts will then be modeled in terms of expected ground shaking and tsunamis. The tsunamis potentially generated by submarine landslides induced by earthquake shaking will also be analyzed. In turn, these models will be used to estimate potential human and economic losses in a multi-hazard approach to risk assessment. Wherever the combined earthquake and tsunami modeling indicates a relevant impact along the coasts, a more detailed analysis will be carried out, also involving the operators of the related platforms, to perform specific models which also take into account production and/or storage data. Activities with a consolidated background, such as those concerning the impact scenarios of earthquakes, and more innovative activities, such as those dedicated to build up the first vulnerability/fragility curves related to tsunamis for the Italian building stock, will be integrated within the project

  8. Post-Closure Evaluation of the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites at the Nevada National Security Site in Support of the Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The post-closure performance of the Area 3 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) and Area 5 RWMS are evaluated for the Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement using current performance assessment and composite analysis methods and models. Two alternatives with different future waste volumes and inventories are evaluated. The No Action Alternative evaluates the inventory disposed through fiscal year (FY) 2010 plus an additional 4.5E5 cubic meters (m3) (1.59E7 cubic feet (ft3)) of waste disposed at the Area 5 RWMS. The Expanded Operations Alternative evaluates the FY 2010 inventory plus an additional 1.42E6 m3 (5.03E7 ft3) of waste disposed at the Area 5 RWMS and 4.93E4 m3 (1.74E6 ft3) disposed at the Area 3 RWMS. Both the No Action and Expanded Operations Alternatives have a reasonable expectation of meeting all performance objectives of U.S. Department of Energy Order DOE O 435.1, 'Radioactive Waste Management.' No significant difference between the two alternatives was found because the waste concentrations are similar. The performance assessment model assesses radiological risk for residents at the RWMS boundary where risk is more closely related to waste concentration than total waste inventory. Results for the composite analysis also indicate that the dose constraint and dose limit can be met for both alternatives.

  9. Romanian Educational Seismic Network Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tataru, Dragos; Ionescu, Constantin; Zaharia, Bogdan; Grecu, Bogdan; Tibu, Speranta; Popa, Mihaela; Borleanu, Felix; Toma, Dragos; Brisan, Nicoleta; Georgescu, Emil-Sever; Dobre, Daniela; Dragomir, Claudiu-Sorin

    2013-04-01

    Romania is one of the most active seismic countries in Europe, with more than 500 earthquakes occurring every year. The seismic hazard of Romania is relatively high and thus understanding the earthquake phenomena and their effects at the earth surface represents an important step toward the education of population in earthquake affected regions of the country and aims to raise the awareness about the earthquake risk and possible mitigation actions. In this direction, the first national educational project in the field of seismology has recently started in Romania: the ROmanian EDUcational SEISmic NETwork (ROEDUSEIS-NET) project. It involves four partners: the National Institute for Earth Physics as coordinator, the National Institute for Research and Development in Construction, Urban Planning and Sustainable Spatial Development " URBAN - INCERC" Bucharest, the Babeş-Bolyai University (Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Engineering) and the software firm "BETA Software". The project has many educational, scientific and social goals. The main educational objectives are: training students and teachers in the analysis and interpretation of seismological data, preparing of several comprehensive educational materials, designing and testing didactic activities using informatics and web-oriented tools. The scientific objective is to introduce into schools the use of advanced instruments and experimental methods that are usually restricted to research laboratories, with the main product being the creation of an earthquake waveform archive. Thus a large amount of such data will be used by students and teachers for educational purposes. For the social objectives, the project represents an effective instrument for informing and creating an awareness of the seismic risk, for experimentation into the efficacy of scientific communication, and for an increase in the direct involvement of schools and the general public. A network of nine seismic stations with SEP seismometers

  10. Final Report: Seismic Hazard Assessment at the PGDP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Zhinmeng [KY Geological Survey, Univ of KY

    2007-06-01

    Selecting a level of seismic hazard at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant for policy considerations and engineering design is not an easy task because it not only depends on seismic hazard, but also on seismic risk and other related environmental, social, and economic issues. Seismic hazard is the main focus. There is no question that there are seismic hazards at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant because of its proximity to several known seismic zones, particularly the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The issues in estimating seismic hazard are (1) the methods being used and (2) difficulty in characterizing the uncertainties of seismic sources, earthquake occurrence frequencies, and ground-motion attenuation relationships. This report summarizes how input data were derived, which methodologies were used, and what the hazard estimates at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant are.

  11. Monitoring Strategies of Earth Dams by Ground-Based Radar Interferometry: How to Extract Useful Information for Seismic Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Pasquale, Andrea; Nico, Giovanni; Pitullo, Alfredo; Prezioso, Giuseppina

    2018-01-16

    The aim of this paper is to describe how ground-based radar interferometry can provide displacement measurements of earth dam surfaces and of vibration frequencies of its main concrete infrastructures. In many cases, dams were built many decades ago and, at that time, were not equipped with in situ sensors embedded in the structure when they were built. Earth dams have scattering properties similar to landslides for which the Ground-Based Synthetic Aperture Radar (GBSAR) technique has been so far extensively applied to study ground displacements. In this work, SAR and Real Aperture Radar (RAR) configurations are used for the measurement of earth dam surface displacements and vibration frequencies of concrete structures, respectively. A methodology for the acquisition of SAR data and the rendering of results is described. The geometrical correction factor, needed to transform the Line-of-Sight (LoS) displacement measurements of GBSAR into an estimate of the horizontal displacement vector of the dam surface, is derived. Furthermore, a methodology for the acquisition of RAR data and the representation of displacement temporal profiles and vibration frequency spectra of dam concrete structures is presented. For this study a Ku-band ground-based radar, equipped with horn antennas having different radiation patterns, has been used. Four case studies, using different radar acquisition strategies specifically developed for the monitoring of earth dams, are examined. The results of this work show the information that a Ku-band ground-based radar can provide to structural engineers for a non-destructive seismic assessment of earth dams.

  12. Causality between expansion of seismic cloud and maximum magnitude of induced seismicity in geothermal field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukuhira, Yusuke; Asanuma, Hiroshi; Ito, Takatoshi; Häring, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Occurrence of induced seismicity with large magnitude is critical environmental issues associated with fluid injection for shale gas/oil extraction, waste water disposal, carbon capture and storage, and engineered geothermal systems (EGS). Studies for prediction of the hazardous seismicity and risk assessment of induced seismicity has been activated recently. Many of these studies are based on the seismological statistics and these models use the information of the occurrence time and event magnitude. We have originally developed physics based model named "possible seismic moment model" to evaluate seismic activity and assess seismic moment which can be ready to release. This model is totally based on microseismic information of occurrence time, hypocenter location and magnitude (seismic moment). This model assumes existence of representative parameter having physical meaning that release-able seismic moment per rock volume (seismic moment density) at given field. Seismic moment density is to be estimated from microseismic distribution and their seismic moment. In addition to this, stimulated rock volume is also inferred by progress of microseismic cloud at given time and this quantity can be interpreted as the rock volume which can release seismic energy due to weakening effect of normal stress by injected fluid. Product of these two parameters (equation (1)) provide possible seismic moment which can be released from current stimulated zone as a model output. Difference between output of this model and observed cumulative seismic moment corresponds the seismic moment which will be released in future, based on current stimulation conditions. This value can be translated into possible maximum magnitude of induced seismicity in future. As this way, possible seismic moment can be used to have feedback to hydraulic stimulation operation in real time as an index which can be interpreted easily and intuitively. Possible seismic moment is defined as equation (1), where D

  13. Seismic instrumentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-06-01

    RFS or Regles Fondamentales de Surete (Basic Safety Rules) applicable to certain types of nuclear facilities lay down requirements with which compliance, for the type of facilities and within the scope of application covered by the RFS, is considered to be equivalent to compliance with technical French regulatory practice. The object of the RFS is to take advantage of standardization in the field of safety, while allowing for technical progress in that field. They are designed to enable the operating utility and contractors to know the rules pertaining to various subjects which are considered to be acceptable by the Service Central de Surete des Installations Nucleaires, or the SCSIN (Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Facilities). These RFS should make safety analysis easier and lead to better understanding between experts and individuals concerned with the problems of nuclear safety. The SCSIN reserves the right to modify, when considered necessary, any RFS and specify, if need be, the terms under which a modification is deemed retroactive. The aim of this RFS is to define the type, location and operating conditions for seismic instrumentation needed to determine promptly the seismic response of nuclear power plants features important to safety to permit comparison of such response with that used as the design basis

  14. Risk assessment of K Basin twelve-inch and four-inch drain valve failure from a postulated seismic initiating event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MORGAN, R.G.

    1999-06-23

    The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project will transfer metallic SNF from the Hanford 105 K-East and 105 K-West Basins to safe interim storage in the Canister Storage Building in the 200 Area. The initial basis for design, fabrication, installation, and operation of the fuel removal systems was that the basin leak rate which could result from a postulated accident condition would not be excessive relative to reasonable recovery operations. However, an additional potential K Basin water leak path is through the K Basin drain valves. Three twelve-inch drain valves are located in the main basin bays along the north wall. Five four-inch drain valves are located in the north and south loadout pits (NLOP and SLOP), the weasel pit, the technical viewing pit, and the discharge chute pit. The sumps containing the valves are filled with concrete which covers the drain valve body. Visual observations indicate that only the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor for the twelve-inch drain valve and that much less of the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor for the five four-inch drain valves. It was recognized, however, that damage of the drain valve bonnet or stem during a seismic initiating event could provide a potential K Basin water leak path. The objectives of this analysis are to: (1) evaluate the likelihood of damaging the three twelve-inch drain valves located along the north wall of the main basin and the five four-inch drain valves located in the pits from a seismic initiating event, and (2) determine the likelihood of exceeding a specific consequence (initial leak rate) from a damaged valve. The analysis process is a risk-based uncertainty analysis where each variable is modeled using available information and engineering judgement. The uncertainty associated with each variable is represented by a probability distribution (probability density function). Uncertainty exists because of the inherent

  15. Development of seismic hazard analysis in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, T.; Ishii, K.; Ishikawa, Y.; Okumura, T.

    1987-01-01

    In recent years, seismic risk assessment of the nuclear power plant have been conducted increasingly in various countries, particularly in the United States to evaluate probabilistically the safety of existing plants under earthquake loading. The first step of the seismic risk assessment is the seismic hazard analysis, in which the relationship between the maximum earthquake ground motions at the plant site and their annual probability of exceedance, i.e. the seismic hazard curve, is estimated. In this paper, seismic hazard curves are evaluated and examined based on historical earthquake records model, in which seismic sources are modeled with area-sources, for several different sites in Japan. A new evaluation method is also proposed to compute the response spectra of the earthquake ground motions in connection with estimating the probabilistic structural response. Finally the numerical result of probabilistic risk assessment for a base-isolated three story RC structure, in which the frequency of seismic induced structural failure is evaluated combining the seismic hazard analysis, is described briefly

  16. Oklahoma seismic network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luza, K.V.; Lawson, J.E. Jr.; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

    1993-07-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has established rigorous guidelines that must be adhered to before a permit to construct a nuclear-power plant is granted to an applicant. Local as well as regional seismicity and structural relationships play an integral role in the final design criteria for nuclear power plants. The existing historical record of seismicity is inadequate in a number of areas of the Midcontinent region because of the lack of instrumentation and (or) the sensitivity of the instruments deployed to monitor earthquake events. The Nemaha Uplift/Midcontinent Geophysical Anomaly is one of five principal areas east of the Rocky Mountain front that has a moderately high seismic-risk classification. The Nemaha uplift, which is common to the states of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska, is approximately 415 miles long and 12-14 miles wide. The Midcontinent Geophysical Anomaly extends southward from Minnesota across Iowa and the southeastern corner of Nebraska and probably terminates in central Kansas. A number of moderate-sized earthquakes--magnitude 5 or greater--have occurred along or west of the Nemaha uplift. The Oklahoma Geological Survey, in cooperation with the geological surveys of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa, conducted a 5-year investigation of the seismicity and tectonic relationships of the Nemaha uplift and associated geologic features in the Midcontinent. This investigation was intended to provide data to be used to design nuclear-power plants. However, the information is also being used to design better large-scale structures, such as dams and high-use buildings, and to provide the necessary data to evaluate earthquake-insurance rates in the Midcontinent

  17. Dynamic behavior of potentially unstable soils and application of model for seismic risk reduction from liquefaction occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheshov, Vlatko

    2002-11-01

    Throughout the last decades, liquefaction phenomenon has been one of the most frequently discussed subjects in geotechnical earthquake engineering. Liquefaction has been a problem arousing considerable attention among the world scientists. The consequences from liquefaction occurrence have been present after each stronger earthquake. We have been witnesses of several strong earthquakes (Kobe - Japan, Chi Chi-Taiwan, Bhuj-India) that have occurred in the last decade. In these earthquakes, the liquefaction phenomenon caused severe damage to structures, loss of their functioning and indirect loss of human lives. Liquefaction as a phenomenon should not arouse fear but should call for serious elaboration and attention instead. The destructive nature of liquefaction could be mitigated, i.e., overcome in two ways: avoiding construction at locations characterized by high liquefaction potential which is not always possible and taking of measures for improvement of foundation soil. Finding out suitable measures for improvement of soil and thus mitigating the liquefaction potential has been the main incentive for the elaboration of this dissertation. The dissipation method involving the use of vertical drains as one of the measures for improvement of soils has been elaborated in details in this scientific work. The doctoral dissertation has been realized through experimental and analytical investigations. The experimental investigations done in the first phase represent model seismic shaking table tests of the efficiency of vertical drains (prefabricated and gravel drains). The analytical investigations in this phase have involved mathematical simulation of the effect of vertical drains upon pore pressure state during the experiments. The second phase of the experimental investigations has involved model tests of the behavior of pile foundations in soils susceptible to liquefaction with installed prefabricated drains. In this phase, the 'p - y' relationships have been

  18. New Geologic Data on the Seismic Risks of the Most Dangerous Fault on Shore in Central Japan, the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line Active Fault System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okumura, K.; Kondo, H.; Toda, S.; Takada, K.; Kinoshita, H.

    2006-12-01

    Ten years have past since the first official assessment of the long-term seismic risks of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line active fault system (ISTL) in 1996. The disaster caused by the1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken-Nanbu) earthquake urged the Japanese government to initiated a national project to assess the long-term seismic risks of on-shore active faults using geologic information. ISTL was the first target of the 98 significant faults and the probability of a M7 to M8 event turned out to be the highest among them. After the 10 years of continued efforts to understand the ISTL, now it is getting ready to revise the assessment. Fault mapping and segmentation: The most active segment of the Gofukuji fault (~1 cm/yr left-lateral strike slip, R=500~800 yrs.) had been maped only for less than 10 km. Adjacent segments were much less active. This large slip on such a short segment was contradictory. However, detailed topographic study including Lidar survey revealed the length of the Gofukuji fault to be 25 km or more. High slip rate with frequent earthquakes may be restricted to the Gofukuji fault while the 1996 assessment modeled frequent >100 km rupture scenario. The geometry of the fault is controversial especially on the left-lateral strike-slip section of the ISTL. There are two models of high-angle Middel ISTL and low-angle Middle ISTL with slip partitioning. However, all geomorphic and shallow geologic data supports high-angle almost pure strike slip on the faults in the Middle ISTL. CRIEPI's 3- dimensional trenching in several sites as well as the previous results clearly demonstrated repeated pure strike-slip offset during past a few events. In Middle ISTL, there is no evidence of recent activity of pre-existing low-angle thrust faults that are inferred to be active from shallow seismic survey. Separation of high (~3000 m) mountain ranges and low (lack of reliable time constraints on past earthquakes. In order to solve this problem, we have carried out intensive

  19. Seismic qualification of equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heidebrecht, A.C.; Tso, W.K.

    1983-03-01

    This report describes the results of an investigation into the seismic qualification of equipment located in CANDU nuclear power plants. It is particularly concerned with the evaluation of current seismic qualification requirements, the development of a suitable methodology for the seismic qualification of safety systems, and the evaluation of seismic qualification analysis and testing procedures

  20. Evaluating Seismic Activity in Ethiopia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    map is constructed from which seismic risks in a given sector ... troyed (10, 11) and the people of Eritrea remember these years ... terms of damage caused to man-made structures; they refer to .... walls of a well designed modern building were deta- ched from ... Although, at present, no theory is satisfactory, the fact remains.

  1. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Yemen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Mohindra

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic-event probabilistic seismic hazard model, which can be used further for estimates of seismic loss and seismic risk analysis, has been developed for the territory of Yemen. An updated composite earthquake catalogue has been compiled using the databases from two basic sources and several research publications. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define and characterize the regional earthquake source zones for Yemen. To capture all possible scenarios in the seismic hazard model, a stochastic event set has been created consisting of 15,986 events generated from 1,583 fault segments in the delineated seismic source zones. Distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA was calculated for all stochastic events considering epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion modeling using three suitable ground motion-prediction relationships, which were applied with equal weight. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps were created showing PGA and MSK seismic intensity at 10% and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considering local soil site conditions. The resulting PGA for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period 475 years ranges from 0.2 g to 0.3 g in western Yemen and generally is less than 0.05 g across central and eastern Yemen. The largest contributors to Yemen’s seismic hazard are the events from the West Arabian Shield seismic zone.

  2. LANL seismic screening method for existing buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickson, S.L.; Feller, K.C.; Fritz de la Orta, G.O.

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Seismic Screening Method is to provide a comprehensive, rational, and inexpensive method for evaluating the relative seismic integrity of a large building inventory using substantial life-safety as the minimum goal. The substantial life-safety goal is deemed to be satisfied if the extent of structural damage or nonstructural component damage does not pose a significant risk to human life. The screening is limited to Performance Category (PC) -0, -1, and -2 buildings and structures. Because of their higher performance objectives, PC-3 and PC-4 buildings automatically fail the LANL Seismic Screening Method and will be subject to a more detailed seismic analysis. The Laboratory has also designated that PC-0, PC-1, and PC-2 unreinforced masonry bearing wall and masonry infill shear wall buildings fail the LANL Seismic Screening Method because of their historically poor seismic performance or complex behavior. These building types are also recommended for a more detailed seismic analysis. The results of the LANL Seismic Screening Method are expressed in terms of separate scores for potential configuration or physical hazards (Phase One) and calculated capacity/demand ratios (Phase Two). This two-phase method allows the user to quickly identify buildings that have adequate seismic characteristics and structural capacity and screen them out from further evaluation. The resulting scores also provide a ranking of those buildings found to be inadequate. Thus, buildings not passing the screening can be rationally prioritized for further evaluation. For the purpose of complying with Executive Order 12941, the buildings failing the LANL Seismic Screening Method are deemed to have seismic deficiencies, and cost estimates for mitigation must be prepared. Mitigation techniques and cost-estimate guidelines are not included in the LANL Seismic Screening Method

  3. Seismic margins and calibration of piping systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shieh, L.C.; Tsai, N.C.; Yang, M.S.; Wong, W.L.

    1985-01-01

    The Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) is a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-funded, multiyear program conducted by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Its objective is to develop a complete, fully coupled analysis procedure for estimating the risk of earthquake-induced radioactive release from a commercial nuclear power plant and to determine major contributors to the state-of-the-art seismic and systems analysis process and explicitly includes the uncertainties in such a process. The results will be used to improve seismic licensing requirements for nuclear power plants. In Phase I of SSMRP, the overall seismic risk assessment methodology was developed and assembled. The application of this methodology to the seismic PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) at the Zion Nuclear Power Plant has been documented. This report documents the method deriving response factors. The response factors, which relate design calculated responses to best estimate values, were used in the seismic response determination of piping systems for a simplified seismic probablistic risk assessment. 13 references, 31 figures, 25 tables

  4. German seismic regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danisch, Ruediger

    2002-01-01

    Rules and regulations for seismic design in Germany cover the following: seismic design of conventional buildings; and seismic design of nuclear facilities. Safety criteria for NPPs, accident guidelines, and guidelines for PWRs as well as safety standards are cited. Safety standards concerned with NPPs seismic design include basic principles, soil analysis, design of building structures, design of mechanical and electrical components, seismic instrumentation, and measures to be undertaken after the earthquake

  5. Seismic Imager Space Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidick, Erkin; Coste, Keith; Cunningham, J.; Sievers,Michael W.; Agnes, Gregory S.; Polanco, Otto R.; Green, Joseph J.; Cameron, Bruce A.; Redding, David C.; Avouac, Jean Philippe; hide

    2012-01-01

    A concept has been developed for a geostationary seismic imager (GSI), a space telescope in geostationary orbit above the Pacific coast of the Americas that would provide movies of many large earthquakes occurring in the area from Southern Chile to Southern Alaska. The GSI movies would cover a field of view as long as 300 km, at a spatial resolution of 3 to 15 m and a temporal resolution of 1 to 2 Hz, which is sufficient for accurate measurement of surface displacements and photometric changes induced by seismic waves. Computer processing of the movie images would exploit these dynamic changes to accurately measure the rapidly evolving surface waves and surface ruptures as they happen. These measurements would provide key information to advance the understanding of the mechanisms governing earthquake ruptures, and the propagation and arrest of damaging seismic waves. GSI operational strategy is to react to earthquakes detected by ground seismometers, slewing the satellite to point at the epicenters of earthquakes above a certain magnitude. Some of these earthquakes will be foreshocks of larger earthquakes; these will be observed, as the spacecraft would have been pointed in the right direction. This strategy was tested against the historical record for the Pacific coast of the Americas, from 1973 until the present. Based on the seismicity recorded during this time period, a GSI mission with a lifetime of 10 years could have been in position to observe at least 13 (22 on average) earthquakes of magnitude larger than 6, and at least one (2 on average) earthquake of magnitude larger than 7. A GSI would provide data unprecedented in its extent and temporal and spatial resolution. It would provide this data for some of the world's most seismically active regions, and do so better and at a lower cost than could be done with ground-based instrumentation. A GSI would revolutionize the understanding of earthquake dynamics, perhaps leading ultimately to effective warning

  6. Fluid injection and induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, Michael; Verdon, James

    2016-04-01

    The link between fluid injection, or extraction, and induced seismicity has been observed in reservoirs for many decades. In fact spatial mapping of low magnitude events is routinely used to estimate a stimulated reservoir volume. However, the link between subsurface fluid injection and larger felt seismicity is less clear and has attracted recent interest with a dramatic increase in earthquakes associated with the disposal of oilfield waste fluids. In a few cases, hydraulic fracturing has also been linked to induced seismicity. Much can be learned from past case-studies of induced seismicity so that we can better understand the risks posed. Here we examine 12 case examples and consider in particular controls on maximum event size, lateral event distributions, and event depths. Our results suggest that injection volume is a better control on maximum magnitude than past, natural seismicity in a region. This might, however, simply reflect the lack of baseline monitoring and/or long-term seismic records in certain regions. To address this in the UK, the British Geological Survey is leading the deployment of monitoring arrays in prospective shale gas areas in Lancashire and Yorkshire. In most cases, seismicity is generally located in close vicinity to the injection site. However, in some cases, the nearest events are up to 5km from the injection point. This gives an indication of the minimum radius of influence of such fluid injection projects. The most distant events are never more than 20km from the injection point, perhaps implying a maximum radius of influence. Some events are located in the target reservoir, but most occur below the injection depth. In fact, most events lie in the crystalline basement underlying the sedimentary rocks. This suggests that induced seismicity may not pose a leakage risk for fluid migration back to the surface, as it does not impact caprock integrity. A useful application for microseismic data is to try and forecast induced seismicity

  7. Seismic behaviour of geotechnical structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Vinale

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with some fundamental considerations regarding the behaviour of geotechnical structures under seismic loading. First a complete definition of the earthquake disaster risk is provided, followed by the importance of performing site-specific hazard analysis. Then some suggestions are provided in regard to adequate assessment of soil parameters, a crucial point to properly analyze the seismic behaviour of geotechnical structures. The core of the paper is centered on a critical review of the analysis methods available for studying geotechnical structures under seismic loadings. All of the available methods can be classified into three main classes, including the pseudo-static, pseudo-dynamic and dynamic approaches, each of which is reviewed for applicability. A more advanced analysis procedure, suitable for a so-called performance-based design approach, is also described in the paper. Finally, the seismic behaviour of the El Infiernillo Dam was investigated. It was shown that coupled elastoplastic dynamic analyses disclose some of the important features of dam behaviour under seismic loading, confirmed by comparing analytical computation and experimental measurements on the dam body during and after a past earthquake.

  8. Review of the seismic risk in the design of civil engineering of nuclear installations excepted the long term storage of radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This guide aims to define, for the nuclear installations excepted the long term storage of radioactive wastes, from site data, the design specifications of earthquake resistant civil engineering and the possible methods for: the determination of the seismic response of the buildings, taking into account the interactions with the materials and the evaluation of the associated strains to size the installation; the determination of seismic displacements to be considered to size the materials. (A.L.B.)

  9. Revision of the AESJ Standard for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Updating requirements based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP Accidents (3). Fragility evaluation and outline of the updated points

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, Akira; Nakamura, Susumu; Mihara, Yoshinori

    2014-01-01

    Lessons learned from Great East Japan earthquake and other new findings had been accumulated on the fragility evaluation of buildings and components. And also new analysis and evaluation method had been proposed with the advancement of recent analysis and evaluation technology. These were reflected in revision of the AESJ Standard for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Scope of the fragility evaluation were extended to all equipment on the site, severe accident management equipment including portable equipment and earthquake concomitant incident (such as tsunami) countermeasure equipment. This article described outlines of updating points of the fragility evaluation of the AESJ Standard for Seismic PRA; (1) requirements for seismic induced other risk evaluations such as fire, inundation and tsunami, (2) simulation technology based on recent findings such as three dimensional responses of buildings / structures and its effect on equipment, (3) requirements of the fragility evaluation for various failure mode of several equipment such as severe accident management equipment, fine failure mode of buildings / structures, failures of equipment related with earthquake concomitant incidents (embankment and seawall) and spent fuel pool, and (4) requirements for the fragility evaluation of aftershocks and soil deformation due to fault displacement. (T. Tanaka)

  10. Prediction of seismic collapse risk of steel moment frame mid-rise structures by meta-heuristic algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jough, Fooad Karimi Ghaleh; Şensoy, Serhan

    2016-12-01

    Different performance levels may be obtained for sideway collapse evaluation of steel moment frames depending on the evaluation procedure used to handle uncertainties. In this article, the process of representing modelling uncertainties, record to record (RTR) variations and cognitive uncertainties for moment resisting steel frames of various heights is discussed in detail. RTR uncertainty is used by incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), modelling uncertainties are considered through backbone curves and hysteresis loops of component, and cognitive uncertainty is presented in three levels of material quality. IDA is used to evaluate RTR uncertainty based on strong ground motion records selected by the k-means algorithm, which is favoured over Monte Carlo selection due to its time saving appeal. Analytical equations of the Response Surface Method are obtained through IDA results by the Cuckoo algorithm, which predicts the mean and standard deviation of the collapse fragility curve. The Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model is used to represent material quality based on the response surface coefficients. Finally, collapse fragility curves with the various sources of uncertainties mentioned are derived through a large number of material quality values and meta variables inferred by the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy model based on response surface method coefficients. It is concluded that a better risk management strategy in countries where material quality control is weak, is to account for cognitive uncertainties in fragility curves and the mean annual frequency.

  11. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berge-Thierry, C.

    2007-05-01

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  12. Seismic Level 2 PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dirksen, Gerben; Pellissetti, Manuel; Duncan-Whiteman, Paul

    2014-01-01

    For most external events, the calculation of the core damage frequency (CDF) in Level 1 PSA is sufficient to be able to show that the contribution of the event to the plant risk is negligible. However, it is not sufficient to compare the CDF due to the external event to the total plant CDF; instead the Level 1 PSA result for the event should be compared to the large early release frequency (LERF), or alternatively arguments should be given why the CDF from the external event will not contribute mostly to LERF. For seismic events in particular, it can often not be easily excluded that sequences leading to core damage would not also result in LERF. Since the confinement function is one of the most essential functions for Level 2 PSA, special care must be taken of the containment penetrations. For example systems with containment penetrations that are normally closed during operation or are designed to withstand more than the maximum containment pressure are normally screened out in the Level 2 PSA for the containment isolation function, however the possibility of LOCA in such systems due to an earthquake may nevertheless lead to containment bypass. Additionally, the functionality of passive features may be compromised in case of a beyond design earthquake. In the present paper, we present crucial ingredients of a methodology for a Level 2 seismic PSA. This methodology consists of the following steps: Extension of the seismic equipment list (SEL) to include Level 2 PSA relevant systems (e.g. containment isolation system, features for core melt stabilization, hydrogen mitigation systems), Determination of the systems within the existing SEL with increased demands in case of severe accidents, Determination of essential components for which a dedicated fragility analysis needs to be performed. (author)

  13. Risks Associated with Unconventional Gas Extraction Projects. Induced Seismicity, NORM and Ecological Risks; Riesgos Asociados a los Proyectos de Extracción de Gas no Convencional. Sismicidad Inducida, NORM y Riesgos Ecológicos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodrigo-Naharro, J.; Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F.

    2015-07-01

    The latest technological advances in hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling are globally driving the commercial extraction of unconventional resources. Although there is still no commercial exploitation of these resources within the EU, the fact that there are potential reserves in some countries, such as Spain, stimulates the need of performing preliminary studies to define the characteristics that an unconventional gas extraction project should consider. The object of these features are the safety of the project, thus minimizing the probabilities of negative environmental impacts, and especially since there is not any EU Framework Directive focusing on the regulation of the operation of such fossil fuels. A project of this nature, involving natural systems, must start from the knowledge of these systems and from an assessment of its features in order to reach the environmental safety of the operations. Moreover, the implementation of risk management systems, along with the existence of an appropriate legislation and supervision are key elements in the development of unconventional gas extraction projects that are environmentally friendly. The present report includes, among the overall risks associated with such projects, those related to: i) the induced seismicity; ii) the Naturally-Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM); and iii) the ecology.

  14. Seismic response of buried pipelines: a state-of-the-art review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Datta, T.K.

    1999-01-01

    A state-of-the-art review of the seismic response of buried pipelines is presented. The review includes modeling of soil-pipe system and seismic excitation, methods of response analysis of buried pipelines, seismic behavior of buried pipelines under different parametric variations, seismic stresses at the bends and intersections of network of pipelines. pipe damage in earthquakes and seismic risk analysis of buried pipelines. Based on the review, the future scope of work on the subject is outlined. (orig.)

  15. Seismic intrusion detector system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawk, Hervey L.; Hawley, James G.; Portlock, John M.; Scheibner, James E.

    1976-01-01

    A system for monitoring man-associated seismic movements within a control area including a geophone for generating an electrical signal in response to seismic movement, a bandpass amplifier and threshold detector for eliminating unwanted signals, pulse counting system for counting and storing the number of seismic movements within the area, and a monitoring system operable on command having a variable frequency oscillator generating an audio frequency signal proportional to the number of said seismic movements.

  16. National Seismic Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stokes, P.A.

    1982-06-01

    The National Seismic Station was developed to meet the needs of regional or worldwide seismic monitoring of underground nuclear explosions to verify compliance with a nuclear test ban treaty. The Station acquires broadband seismic data and transmits it via satellite to a data center. It is capable of unattended operation for periods of at least a year, and will detect any tampering that could result in the transmission of unauthentic seismic data

  17. Seismic studies for nuclear installations sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadioun, B.; Faure, J.

    1988-01-01

    The french experience in seismic risks assessment for french nuclear installations permits to set out the objectives, the phases the geographic extensions of workings to be realized for the installation safety. The data to be collected for the safety analysis are specified, they concern the regional seismotectonics, the essential seismic data for determining the seism level to be taken into account and defining the soil movement spectra adapted to the site. It is necessary to follow up the seismic surveillance during the installation construction and life. 7 refs. (F.M.)

  18. Quantitative Seismic Amplitude Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dey, A.K.

    2011-01-01

    The Seismic Value Chain quantifies the cyclic interaction between seismic acquisition, imaging and reservoir characterization. Modern seismic innovation to address the global imbalance in hydrocarbon supply and demand requires such cyclic interaction of both feed-forward and feed-back processes.

  19. Seismic fragility evaluation of unreinforced masonry walls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Y.J.; Hofmayer, C.H.; Reich, M.; Lee, S.K.

    1991-01-01

    A practical analysis scheme to evaluate the seismic fragility of unreinforced masonry walls which are used at various places in older reactor facilities is presented. Among the several failure modes for such walls, the out-of-plane bending failure is considered to be a major risk contributor in seismic PRA studies. In order to evaluate this failure mode, the use of an equivalent linear approximation method is examined based on comparisons with available test data and nonlinear time history analyses. (author)

  20. France's seismic zoning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadioun, B.

    1997-01-01

    In order to assess the seismic hazard in France in relation to nuclear plant siting, the CEA, EDF and the BRGM (Mine and Geology Bureau) have carried out a collaboration which resulted in a seismic-tectonic map of France and a data base on seismic history (SIRENE). These studies were completed with a seismic-tectonic zoning, taking into account a very long period of time, that enabled a probabilistic evaluation of the seismic hazard in France, and that may be related to adjacent country hazard maps

  1. Seismic changes industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses the growth in the seismic industry as a result of the recent increases in the foreign market. With the decline of communism and the opening of Latin America to exploration, seismic teams have moved out into these areas in support of the oil and gas industry. The paper goes on to discuss the improved technology available for seismic resolution and the subsequent use of computers to field-proof the data while the seismic team is still on-site. It also discusses the effects of new computer technology on reducing the amount of support staff that is required to both conduct and interpret seismic information

  2. Systems considerations in seismic margin evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buttermer, D.R.

    1987-01-01

    Increasing knowledge in the geoscience field has led to the understanding that, although highly unlikely, it is possible for a nuclear power plant to be subjected to earthquake ground motion greater than that for which the plant was designed. While it is recognized that there are conservatisms inherent in current design practices, interest has developed in evaluating the seismic risk of operating plants. Several plant-specific seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) have been completed to address questions related to the seismic risk of a plant. The results from such SPRAs are quite informative, but such studies may entail a considerable amount of expensive analysis of large portions of the plant. As an alternative to an SPRA, it may be more practical to select an earthquake level above the design basis for which plant survivability is to be demonstrated. The principal question to be addressed in a seismic margin evaluation is: At what ground motion levels does one have a high confidence that the probability of seismically induced core damage is sufficiently low? In a seismic margin evaluation, an earthquake level is selected (based on site-specific geoscience considerations) for which a stable, long-term safe shutdown condition is to be demonstrated. This prespecified earthquake level is commonly referred to as the seismic margin earthquake (SME). The Electric Power Research Institute is currently supporting a research project to develop procedures for use by the utilities to allow them to perform nuclear plant seismic margin evaluations. This paper describes the systems-related aspects of these procedures

  3. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-05-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  4. NCSRR digital seismic network in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldea, A.; Albota, E.; Demetriu, S.; Poiata, N.; Kashima, T.

    2007-01-01

    Digital seismic instrumentation donated by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to the National Center for Seismic Risk Reduction (NCSRR, Romania) allowed the installation in 2003 of a new Romanian seismic network. In 2005-2006 the network was developed by investments from NCSRR within the budget ensured by Ministry of Transports, Construction and Tourism (MTCT). The NCSRR seismic network contains three types of instrumentation: (i) free-field stations - outside the capital city Bucharest (8 accelerometers), (ii) instrumented buildings - in Bucharest (5 buildings), and (iii) stations with free-field and borehole sensors - in Bucharest (8 sites with ground surface sensor and sensors in 15 boreholes with depths up to 153 m). Since its installation, the NCSRR network recorded more than 170 seismic motions from 26 earthquakes with moment magnitudes ranging from 3.2 to 6.0. The seismic instrumentation was accompanied by investigations of ground conditions and site response: PS logging tests, single-station and array microtremor measurements. The development of seismic monitoring in Romania is a major contribution of JICA Project, creating the premises for a better understanding and modelling of earthquake ground motion, site effects and building response. (authors)

  5. Advanced Seismic While Drilling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert Radtke; John Fontenot; David Glowka; Robert Stokes; Jeffery Sutherland; Ron Evans; Jim Musser

    2008-06-30

    for developing, utilizing, and exploiting the low-frequency SeismicPULSER{trademark} source in a variety of applications. Risks will be minimized since Drill Bit SWD will not interfere with the drilling operation, and can be performed in a relatively quiet environment when the pumps are turned off. The new source must be integrated with other Measurement While Drilling (MWD) tools. To date, each of the oil companies and service companies contacted have shown interest in participating in the commercialization of the low-frequency SeismicPULSER{trademark} source. A technical paper has been accepted for presentation at the 2009 Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in a Society of Exploration Geologists/American Association of Petroleum Geophysicists (SEG/AAPG) technical session.

  6. Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shedlock, K.M.; Tanner, J.G.

    1999-01-01

    Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the

  7. Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Tanner

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.. Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($ 6 billion, 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion, and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes, emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions

  8. Seismic Performance Assessment and Strengthening of Gazimagusa Namik Kemal Lisesi

    OpenAIRE

    Yardımcı, Temuçin

    2009-01-01

    ABSTRACT: Many destructive earthquakes occurred in Cyprus. However, the potential seismic risk of the buildings in Cyprus is not known well since vulnerability is unknown. Especially in the Northern part of the Island building inventory has variation regarding seismic performance. On the other hand, in Northern Cyprus there are more than 150 school buildings with different ages. Most of these buildings have been constructed before the use of modern seismic codes. In other words, only gravity...

  9. Angola Seismicity MAP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto, F. A. P.; Franca, G.

    2014-12-01

    The purpose of this job was to study and document the Angola natural seismicity, establishment of the first database seismic data to facilitate consultation and search for information on seismic activity in the country. The study was conducted based on query reports produced by National Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics (INAMET) 1968 to 2014 with emphasis to the work presented by Moreira (1968), that defined six seismogenic zones from macro seismic data, with highlighting is Zone of Sá da Bandeira (Lubango)-Chibemba-Oncócua-Iona. This is the most important of Angola seismic zone, covering the epicentral Quihita and Iona regions, geologically characterized by transcontinental structure tectono-magmatic activation of the Mesozoic with the installation of a wide variety of intrusive rocks of ultrabasic-alkaline composition, basic and alkaline, kimberlites and carbonatites, strongly marked by intense tectonism, presenting with several faults and fractures (locally called corredor de Lucapa). The earthquake of May 9, 1948 reached intensity VI on the Mercalli-Sieberg scale (MCS) in the locality of Quihita, and seismic active of Iona January 15, 1964, the main shock hit the grade VI-VII. Although not having significant seismicity rate can not be neglected, the other five zone are: Cassongue-Ganda-Massano de Amorim; Lola-Quilengues-Caluquembe; Gago Coutinho-zone; Cuima-Cachingues-Cambândua; The Upper Zambezi zone. We also analyzed technical reports on the seismicity of the middle Kwanza produced by Hidroproekt (GAMEK) region as well as international seismic bulletins of the International Seismological Centre (ISC), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and these data served for instrumental location of the epicenters. All compiled information made possible the creation of the First datbase of seismic data for Angola, preparing the map of seismicity with the reconfirmation of the main seismic zones defined by Moreira (1968) and the identification of a new seismic

  10. Seismic characterization of the NPP Krsko site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obreza, J.

    2000-01-01

    The goal of NPP Krsko PSA Project Update was the inclusion of plant changes (i.e. configuration/operational related) through the period January 1, 1993 till the OUTAGE99 (April 1999) into the integrated Internal/External Level 1/Level 2 NPP Krsko PSA RISK SPECTRUM model. NPP Krsko is located on seismotectonic plate. Highest earthquake was recorded in 1917 with magnitude 5.8 at a distance of 7-9 km. Site (founded) on Pliocene sediments which are as deep as several hundred meters. No surface faulting at the Krsko site has been observed and thus it is not to be expected. NPP Krsko is equipped with seismic instrumentation, which allows it to complete OBE (SSE). The seismic PSA successfully showed high seismic margin at Krsko plant. NPP Krsko seismic design is based on US regulations and standards

  11. Seismic reevaluation of existing nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennart, J.C.

    1978-01-01

    The codes and regulations governing Nuclear Power Plant seismic analysis are continuously becoming more stringent. In addition, design ground accelerations of existing plants must sometimes be increased as a result of discovery of faulting zones or recording of recent earthquakes near the plant location after plant design. These new factors can result in augmented seismic design criteria. Seismic reanalysius of the existing Nuclear Power Plant structures and equipments is necessary to prevent the consequences of newly postulated accidents that could cause undue risk to the health or safety of the public. This paper reviews the developments of seismic analysis as applied to Nuclear Power Plants and the methods used by Westinghouse to requalify existing plants to the most recent safety requirements. (author)

  12. An Investigation of Seismicity for Western Anatolia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayil, N.

    2007-01-01

    In order to determine the seismicity of western Anatolia limited with the coordinates of 36degree-40degreeN, 26degree-32degreeE, Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation, seismic risk and recurrence period have been computed. The data belonging to both the historical period before 1900 (I0 3 6.0 corresponding to MS 3 5.0) and the instrumental period until 2005 (MS 3 4.0) have been used in the analysis. The study area has been divided into 13 sub-regions due to certain seismotectonic characteristics, plate tectonic models and geology of the region. Computations from a and b parameters and seismic risk and recurrence period for each sub-regions have showed that subregions 1 and 8 (Balikesir and Izmir-Sakiz Island), where have the lowest b values, have the highest risks and the shortest recurrence periods

  13. Seismic risk mitigation in deep level South African mines by state of the art underground monitoring - Joint South African and Japanese study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milev, A.; Durrheim, R.; Nakatani, M.; Yabe, Y.; Ogasawara, H.; Naoi, M.

    2012-04-01

    Two underground sites in a deep level gold mine in South Africa were instrumented by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) with tilt meters and seismic monitors. One of the sites was also instrumented by JApanese-German Underground Acoustic emission Research in South Africa (JAGUARS) with a small network, approximately 40m span, of eight Acoustic Emission (AE) sensors. The rate of tilt, defined as quasi-static deformations, and the seismic ground motion, defined as dynamic deformations, were analysed in order to understand the rock mass behavior around deep level mining. In addition the high frequency AE events recorded at hypocentral distances of about 50m located at 3300m below the surface were analysed. A good correspondence between the dynamic and quasi-static deformations was found. The rate of coseismic and aseismic tilt, as well as seismicity recorded by the mine seismic network, are approximately constant until the daily blasting time, which takes place from about 19:30 until shortly before 21:00. During the blasting time and the subsequent seismic events the coseismic and aseismic tilt shows a rapid increase.Much of the quasi-static deformation, however, occurs independently of the seismic events and was described as 'slow' or aseismic events. During the monitoring period a seismic event with MW 2.2 occurred in the vicinity of the instrumented site. This event was recorded by both the CSIR integrated monitoring system and JAGUARS acoustic emotion network. The tilt changes associated with this event showed a well pronounced after-tilt. The aftershock activities were also well recorded by the acoustic emission and the mine seismic networks. More than 21,000 AE aftershocks were located in the first 150 hours after the main event. Using the distribution of the AE events the position of the fault in the source area was successfully delineated. The distribution of the AE events following the main shock was related to after tilt in order to

  14. 2D and 3D seismic measurements to evaluate the collapse risk of an important prehistoric cave in soft carbonate rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leucci, Giovanni; De Giorgi, Lara

    2015-02-01

    The southern part of the Apulia region (the Salento peninsula) has been the site of at least fifteen collapse events due to sinkholes in the last twenty years. The majority of these occurred in "soft" carbonate rocks (calcarenites). Man-made and/or natural cavities are sometimes assets of historical and archaeological significance. This paper provides a methodology for the evaluation of sinkhole hazard in "soft" carbonate rocks, combining seismic and mine engineering methods.Acase study of a natural cavity which is called Grotta delle Veneri is illustrated. For this example the approach was: i) 2D and 3D seismic methods to study the physical-mechanical characteristics of the rock mass that constitutes the roof of the cave; and ii) scaled span empirical analysis in order to evaluate the instability of the crown pillar's caves.

  15. The Use of GIS for the Application of the Phenomenological Approach to the Seismic Risk Analysis: the Case of the Italian Fortified Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenticchia, E.; Coïsson, E.

    2017-05-01

    The present paper proposes the use of GIS for the application of the so-called phenomenological approach to the analysis of the seismic behaviour of historical buildings. This approach is based on the awareness that the different masonry building typologies are characterized by different, recurring vulnerabilities. Thus, the observation and classification of the real damage is seen as the first step for recognizing and classifying these vulnerabilities, in order to plan focused preventive interventions. For these purposes, the GIS has proven to be a powerful instrument to collect and manage this type of information on a large number of cases. This paper specifically focuses on the application of the phenomenological approach to the analysis of the seismic behaviour of fortified buildings, including castles, fortresses, citadels, and all the typical historical constructions characterized by the presence of massive towers and defensive walls. The main earthquakes which struck Italy in the last 40 years (up to the recent Central Italy seismic swarm) were taken into consideration and described by means of shake maps. A previously published work has been continued with the addition of new data and some improvements, including a specific symbology for the description of building typologies and conservation status on the maps, the indications of damage levels and the comparison between shake maps in terms of pga and in terms of pseudo-acceleration. The increase in knowledge obtained and the broader frame given by the analysis of the data are here directed to the primary aim of cultural heritage preservation.

  16. THE USE OF GIS FOR THE APPLICATION OF THE PHENOMENOLOGICAL APPROACH TO THE SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS: THE CASE OF THE ITALIAN FORTIFIED ARCHITECTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Lenticchia

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The present paper proposes the use of GIS for the application of the so-called phenomenological approach to the analysis of the seismic behaviour of historical buildings. This approach is based on the awareness that the different masonry building typologies are characterized by different, recurring vulnerabilities. Thus, the observation and classification of the real damage is seen as the first step for recognizing and classifying these vulnerabilities, in order to plan focused preventive interventions. For these purposes, the GIS has proven to be a powerful instrument to collect and manage this type of information on a large number of cases. This paper specifically focuses on the application of the phenomenological approach to the analysis of the seismic behaviour of fortified buildings, including castles, fortresses, citadels, and all the typical historical constructions characterized by the presence of massive towers and defensive walls. The main earthquakes which struck Italy in the last 40 years (up to the recent Central Italy seismic swarm were taken into consideration and described by means of shake maps. A previously published work has been continued with the addition of new data and some improvements, including a specific symbology for the description of building typologies and conservation status on the maps, the indications of damage levels and the comparison between shake maps in terms of pga and in terms of pseudo-acceleration. The increase in knowledge obtained and the broader frame given by the analysis of the data are here directed to the primary aim of cultural heritage preservation.

  17. Demonstration of NonLinear Seismic Soil Structure Interaction and Applicability to New System Fragility Seismic Curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Nuclear Science and Technology

    2014-09-01

    Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRAs are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (the frequency of certain magnitude events) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and systems analysis. Figure 1 provides a high level overview of the risk quantification process. The focus of this research is on understanding and removing conservatism (when possible) in the quantification of seismic risk at NPPs.

  18. Georgia-Armenia Transboarder seismicity studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoladze, T.; Tvaradze, N.; Javakishvili, Z.; Elashvili, M.; Durgaryan, R.; Arakelyan, A.; Gevorgyan, M.

    2012-12-01

    In the presented study we performed Comprehensive seismic analyses for the Armenian-Georgian transboarder active seismic fault starting on Armenian territory, cutting the state boarder and having possibly northern termination on Adjara-Triealeti frontal structure in Georgia. In the scope of International projects: ISTC A-1418 "Open network of scientific Centers for mitigation risk of natural hazards in the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia" and NATO SfP- 983284 Project "Caucasus Seismic Emergency Response" in Akhalkalaki (Georgia) seismic center, Regional Summer school trainings and intensive filed investigations were conducted. Main goal was multidisciplinary study of the Javakheti fault structure and better understanding seismicity of the area. Young scientists from Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia were participated in the deployment of temporal seismic network in order to monitor seisimity on the Javakheti highland and particularly delineate fault scarf and identify active seismic structures. In the scope of international collaboration the common seismic database has been created in the southern Caucasus and collected data from the field works is available now online. Javakheti highland, which is located in the central part of the Caucasus, belongs to the structure of the lesser Caucasus and represents a history of neotectonic volcanism existed in the area. Jasvakheti highland is seismicalu active region devastating from several severe earthquakes(1088, 1283, 1899…). Hypocenters located during analogue network were highly scattered and did not describe real pattern of seismicity of the highland. We relocated hypocenters of the region and improved local velocity model. The hypocenters derived from recently deployed local seismic network in the Javakheti highland, clearly identified seismically active structures. Fault plane solutions of analogue data of the Soviet times have been carefully analyzed and examined. Moment tensor inversion were preformed

  19. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard at the Archaeological Site of Gol ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    9

    seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, ... carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. ... NGA-W2, NGA-East, pan-European models) is anticipated to minimise the ... Heritage structures are precious as they form inextricable components of history, culture and.

  20. Seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanzano, Giovanni; Salzano, Ernesto; Santucci de Magistris, Filippo; Fabbrocino, Giovanni

    2013-01-01

    This work deals with the analysis of the interaction of earthquakes with pipelines transporting and distributing natural gas for industrial and civil use. To this aim, a new large data-set of seismic information classified on the basis of selected seismological, geotechnical and structural parameters is presented and analyzed. Particular attention is devoted to continuous pipelines under strong ground shaking, which is the geotechnical effect due to passage of waves in soil. Results are provided in terms of the likelihood of the loss of containment with respect to Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), a seismic intensity parameter which may be easily retrieved either from local authorities and public databases or from site dependent hazard analysis. Fragility functions and seismic intensity threshold values for the failure and for the loss of containment of gas from pipeline systems are also given. The obtained functions can be easily implemented in existing codes and guidelines for industrial risk assessment, land-use planning, and for the design of public distribution network, with specific reference to Natural—Technological interaction (Na-Tech). -- Highlights: • The seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines is analyzed. • A collection of data for pipelines damaged by earthquake is given. • Damage states and risk states for pipelines are defined. • Consequence-based fragility formulations for the loss of containment are given • Seismic threshold values for public authority, risk assessment and gas distribution are shown

  1. Burar seismic station: evaluation of seismic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghica, Daniela; Popa, Mihaela

    2005-01-01

    A new seismic monitoring system, the Bucovina Seismic Array (BURAR), has been established since July 2002, in the Northern part of Romania, in a joint effort of the Air Force Technical Applications Center, USA, and the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP), Romania. The small-aperture array consists of 10 seismic sensors (9 vertical short-period and one three-component broad band) located in boreholes and distributed in a 5 x 5 km 2 area. At present, the seismic data are continuously recorded by the BURAR and transmitted in real-time to the Romanian National Data Center in Bucharest and National Data Center of the USA, in Florida. Based on the BURAR seismic information gathered at the National Data Center, NIEP (ROM N DC), in the August 2002 - December 2004 time interval, analysis and statistical assessments were performed. Following the preliminary processing of the data, several observations on the global performance of the BURAR system were emphasized. Data investigation showed an excellent efficiency of the BURAR system particularly in detecting teleseismic and regional events. Also, a statistical analysis for the BURAR detection capability of the local Vrancea events was performed in terms of depth and magnitude for the year 2004. The high signal detection capability of the BURAR resulted, generally, in improving the location solutions for the Vrancea seismic events. The location solution accuracy is enhanced when adding BURAR recordings, especially in the case of low magnitude events (recorded by few stations). The location accuracy is increased, both in terms of constraining hypocenter depth and epicentral coordinates. Our analysis certifies the importance of the BURAR system in NIEP efforts to elaborate seismic bulletins. Furthermore, the specific procedures for array data processing (beam forming, f-k analysis) increase significantly the signal-to-noise ratio by summing up the coherent signals from the array components, and ensure a better accuracy

  2. Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozłowska, Maria; Brudzinski, Michael R.; Friberg, Paul; Skoumal, Robert J.; Baxter, Nicholas D.; Currie, Brian S.

    2018-02-01

    Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: (i) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values 1.5, and few post–shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ˜1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

  3. Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozłowska, Maria; Brudzinski, Michael R; Friberg, Paul; Skoumal, Robert J; Baxter, Nicholas D; Currie, Brian S

    2018-02-20

    Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: ( i ) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values 1.5, and few post-shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ∼1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

  4. Scram reliability under seismic conditions at the Experimental Breeder Reactor II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roglans, J.; Wang, C.Y.; Hill, D.J.

    1993-01-01

    A Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II has recently been completed. Seismic events are among the external initiating events included in the assessment. As part of the seismic PRA a detailed study has been performed of the ability to shutdown the reactor under seismic conditions. A comprehensive finite element model of the EBR-II control rod drive system has been used to analyze the control rod system response when subjected to input seismic accelerators. The results indicate the control rod drive system has a high seismic capacity. The estimated seismic fragility for the overall reactor shutdown system is dominated by the primary tank failure

  5. Seismic design principles for the German fast breeder reactor SNR2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rangette, A.M.; Peters, K.A.

    1988-01-01

    The leading aim of a seismic design is, besides protection against seismic impacts, not to enhance the overall risk in the absence of seismic vibrations and, secondly, to avoid competition between operational needs and a seismic structural design. This approach is supported by avoiding overconservatism in the assumption of seismic loads and in the calculation of the structural response. Accordingly the seismic principles are stated as follows: restriction to German or equivalent low seismicity sites with intensities (SSE) lower VIII at frequency lower than 10 -4 /year; best estimate of seismic input-data without further conservatism; no consideration of OBE. The structural design principles are: 1. The secondary character of the seismic excitation is explicitly accounted for; 2. Energy absorption is allowed for by ductility of materials and construction. Accordingly strain criteria are used for failure predictions instead of stress criteria. (author). 1 fig

  6. Seismic texture classification. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinther, R.

    1997-12-31

    The seismic texture classification method, is a seismic attribute that can both recognize the general reflectivity styles and locate variations from these. The seismic texture classification performs a statistic analysis for the seismic section (or volume) aiming at describing the reflectivity. Based on a set of reference reflectivities the seismic textures are classified. The result of the seismic texture classification is a display of seismic texture categories showing both the styles of reflectivity from the reference set and interpolations and extrapolations from these. The display is interpreted as statistical variations in the seismic data. The seismic texture classification is applied to seismic sections and volumes from the Danish North Sea representing both horizontal stratifications and salt diapers. The attribute succeeded in recognizing both general structure of successions and variations from these. Also, the seismic texture classification is not only able to display variations in prospective areas (1-7 sec. TWT) but can also be applied to deep seismic sections. The seismic texture classification is tested on a deep reflection seismic section (13-18 sec. TWT) from the Baltic Sea. Applied to this section the seismic texture classification succeeded in locating the Moho, which could not be located using conventional interpretation tools. The seismic texture classification is a seismic attribute which can display general reflectivity styles and deviations from these and enhance variations not found by conventional interpretation tools. (LN)

  7. IAEA establishes International Seismic Safety Centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Full text: The IAEA today officially inaugurated an international centre to coordinate efforts for protecting nuclear installations against the effects of earthquakes. The International Seismic Safety Centre (ISSC), which has been established within the IAEA's Department of Nuclear Safety and Security, will serve as a focal point on seismic safety for nuclear installations worldwide. ISSC will assist countries on the assessment of seismic hazards of nuclear facilities to mitigate the consequences of strong earthquakes. 'With safety as our first priority, it is vital that we pool all expert knowledge available worldwide to assist nuclear operators and regulators to be well prepared for coping with major seismic events,' said Antonio Godoy, Acting Head of the IAEA's Engineering Safety Section and leader of the ISSC. 'The creation of the ISSC represents the culmination of three decades of the IAEA's active and recognized involvement in this matter through the development of an updated set of safety standards and the assistance to Member States for their application.' To further seismic safety at nuclear installations worldwide, the ISSC will: - Promote knowledge sharing among the international community in order to avoid or mitigate the consequences of extreme seismic events on nuclear installations; - Support countries through advisory services and training courses; and - Enhance seismic safety by utilizing experience gained from previous seismic events in member states. The centre is supported by a scientific committee of high-level experts from academic, industrial and nuclear safety authorities that will advise the ISSC on implementation of its programme. Experts have been nominated from seven specialized areas, including geology and tectonics, seismology, seismic hazard, geotechnical engineering, structural engineering, equipment, and seismic risk. Japan and the United States have both contributed initial funds for creation of the centre, which will be based at

  8. Overview of the Hanford risk management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halverson, T.G.

    1998-01-01

    The Project Hanford Management Contract called for the enhancement of site-wide decision processes, and development of a Hanford Risk Management Plan to adopt or develop a risk management system for the Hanford Site. This Plan provides a consistent foundation for Site issues and addresses site-wide management of risks of all types. It supports the Department of Energy planning and sitewide decision making policy. Added to this requirement is a risk performance report to characterize the risk management accomplishments. This paper presents the development of risk management within the context of work planning and performance. Also discussed are four risk elements which add value to the context

  9. Energy-Based Seismic Risk Evaluation of Tall Reinforced Concrete Building in Vancouver, BC, Canada, under Mw9 Megathrust Subduction Earthquakes and Aftershocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon Tesfamariam

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a seismic performance evaluation framework for reinforced concrete (RC buildings, comprising shear walls and gravity frames. The evaluation is undertaken within a performance-based earthquake engineering framework by considering regional seismicity and site-specific ground motion selection. Different engineering demand parameters (EDPs, i.e., maximum interstory drift ratio (MaxISDR and energy-based damage index, are considered as performance indicators. Various prediction models of EDPs are developed by considering four ground motion intensity measures (IMs, i.e., spectral acceleration at the fundamental period, Arias intensity, cumulative absolute velocity (CAV, and significant duration of ground motion. For this study, a 15-story RC building, located in Vancouver, BC, Canada, is considered as a case study. By using 50 mainshock and 50 mainshock–aftershock (MS-AS earthquake records (2 horizontal components per record and bidirectional loading, non-linear dynamic analyses are performed. Subsequently, the calculated MaxISDRs and damage indices are correlated with suitable IMs using cloud analysis, and the most efficient IM-EDP prediction models are selected by comparing standard deviations (SDs of the regression errors. The MaxISDR of the shear walls is less than 1% for the mainshock and MS-AS records. The energy-based damage index shows sensitivity to delineate impact of earthquake types and aftershocks. The CAV is showed to be the most efficient IM for the energy-based damage index.

  10. Using Seismic Interferometry to Investigate Seismic Swarms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matzel, E.; Morency, C.; Templeton, D. C.

    2017-12-01

    Seismicity provides a direct means of measuring the physical characteristics of active tectonic features such as fault zones. Hundreds of small earthquakes often occur along a fault during a seismic swarm. This seismicity helps define the tectonically active region. When processed using novel geophysical techniques, we can isolate the energy sensitive to the fault, itself. Here we focus on two methods of seismic interferometry, ambient noise correlation (ANC) and the virtual seismometer method (VSM). ANC is based on the observation that the Earth's background noise includes coherent energy, which can be recovered by observing over long time periods and allowing the incoherent energy to cancel out. The cross correlation of ambient noise between a pair of stations results in a waveform that is identical to the seismogram that would result if an impulsive source located at one of the stations was recorded at the other, the Green function (GF). The calculation of the GF is often stable after a few weeks of continuous data correlation, any perturbations to the GF after that point are directly related to changes in the subsurface and can be used for 4D monitoring.VSM is a style of seismic interferometry that provides fast, precise, high frequency estimates of the Green's function (GF) between earthquakes. VSM illuminates the subsurface precisely where the pressures are changing and has the potential to image the evolution of seismicity over time, including changes in the style of faulting. With hundreds of earthquakes, we can calculate thousands of waveforms. At the same time, VSM collapses the computational domain, often by 2-3 orders of magnitude. This allows us to do high frequency 3D modeling in the fault region. Using data from a swarm of earthquakes near the Salton Sea, we demonstrate the power of these techniques, illustrating our ability to scale from the far field, where sources are well separated, to the near field where their locations fall within each other

  11. The Seismic Analyzer: Interpreting and Illustrating 2D Seismic Data

    OpenAIRE

    Patel, Daniel; Giertsen, Christopher; Thurmond, John; Gjelberg, John; Gröller, Eduard

    2008-01-01

    We present a toolbox for quickly interpreting and illustrating 2D slices of seismic volumetric reflection data. Searching for oil and gas involves creating a structural overview of seismic reflection data to identify hydrocarbon reservoirs. We improve the search of seismic structures by precalculating the horizon structures of the seismic data prior to interpretation. We improve the annotation of seismic structures by applying novel illustrative rendering algorithms tailored to seism...

  12. Lower bound earthquake magnitude for probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCann, M.W. Jr.; Reed, J.W.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a study that develops an engineering and seismological basis for selecting a lower-bound magnitude (LBM) for use in seismic hazard assessment. As part of a seismic hazard analysis the range of earthquake magnitudes that are included in the assessment of the probability of exceedance of ground motion must be defined. The upper-bound magnitude is established by earth science experts based on their interpretation of the maximum size of earthquakes that can be generated by a seismic source. The lower-bound or smallest earthquake that is considered in the analysis must also be specified. The LBM limits the earthquakes that are considered in assessing the probability that specified ground motion levels are exceeded. In the past there has not been a direct consideration of the appropriate LBM value that should be used in a seismic hazard assessment. This study specifically looks at the selection of a LBM for use in seismic hazard analyses that are input to the evaluation/design of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Topics addressed in the evaluation of a LBM are earthquake experience data at heavy industrial facilities, engineering characteristics of ground motions associated with small-magnitude earthquakes, probabilistic seismic risk assessments (seismic PRAs), and seismic margin evaluations. The results of this study and the recommendations concerning a LBM for use in seismic hazard assessments are discussed. (orig.)

  13. Supplement Analysis for Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement for Continued Operation of Los Alamos National Laboratory -- Modification of Management Methods for Transuranic Waste Characterization at Los Alamos National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This Supplement Analysis (SA) has been prepared to determine if the Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement for Continued Operations of Los Alamos National Laboratory (SWEIS) (DOE/EIS-0238) adequately addresses the environmental effects of a waste management proposal for installing and operating modular units for the characterization of transuranic (TRU) waste1 at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Technical Area (TA)-54, Area G, or if the SWEIS needs to be supplemented. Council on Environmental Quality regulations at Title 40, Section 1502.9 (c) of the Code of Federal Regulations (40 CFR 1502.9[c]) require federal agencies to prepare a supplement to an EIS when an agency makes substantial changes in the proposed action that are relevant to environmental concerns or there are circumstances or information relevant to concerns and bearing on the proposed action or its impacts. This SA is prepared in accordance with Section 10 CFR 1021.314(c) of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) regulations for NEPA implementation stating that ''When it is unclear whether or not an EIS supplement is required, DOE shall prepare a Supplement Analysis.'' This SA specifically compares key impact assessment parameters of the waste management program evaluated in the SWEIS with those of a proposal that would change the approach of a portion of this management program. It also provides an explanation of any differences between the proposed action and activities described in the previous SWEIS analysis. DOE proposes to expedite the shipment of legacy TRU waste to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in Carlsbad, New Mexico. The Cerro Grande Fire in 2000 and events of September 11, 2001, have focused attention on the potential risk to the public and the credible security hazard posed by the amount of plutonium stored above ground at LANL and the increased necessity to safeguard our nation's nuclear waste. The safest place for defense-generated TRU waste has been determined to be DOE

  14. Seismically induced accident sequence analysis of the advanced test reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khericha, S.T.; Henry, D.M.; Ravindra, M.K.; Hashimoto, P.S.; Griffin, M.J.; Tong, W.H.; Nafday, A.M.

    1991-01-01

    A seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed for the Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) as part of the external events analysis. The risk from seismic events to the fuel in the core and in the fuel storage canal was evaluated. The key elements of this paper are the integration of seismically induced internal flood and internal fire, and the modeling of human error rates as a function of the magnitude of earthquake. The systems analysis was performed by EG ampersand G Idaho, Inc. and the fragility analysis and quantification were performed by EQE International, Inc. (EQE)

  15. Prevention By Seismic Risk In The Ordinary Praxis Of Governance. The Case Of Historic Centers And Respective Policies And/Or Dedicated Tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ugolini, Pietro; Pirlone, Francesca; Conelli, Francesco; Spadaro, Ilenia; Cumbo, Francesco

    2008-01-01

    Bussana Vecchia has been declared of important historical-cultural interest according to the laws D.Lgs.490/1999 and DDG made by the Ministry of Cultural Goods in date 11/12/2000, that has registered the historic core on the State property. The design proposals individuated in the research summarized in this paper, constitute a set of interventions aimed at favouring the liveability improvement and revitalizing of the fabric of the city, in order to return enjoyable spaces and structures for social and cultural activities to the context. In this paper a significant experience is related, through which it has been possible to test the methodology concerning the seismic damage scenarios assessment, aimed at the prevention in the usual procedures of governance (dedicated policies and instruments)

  16. Seismic sequences in the Sombrero Seismic Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulliam, J.; Huerfano, V. A.; ten Brink, U.; von Hillebrandt, C.

    2007-05-01

    The northeastern Caribbean, in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, has a long and well-documented history of devastating earthquakes and tsunamis, including major events in 1670, 1787, 1867, 1916, 1918, and 1943. Recently, seismicity has been concentrated to the north and west of the British Virgin Islands, in the region referred to as the Sombrero Seismic Zone by the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN). In the combined seismicity catalog maintained by the PRSN, several hundred small to moderate magnitude events can be found in this region prior to 2006. However, beginning in 2006 and continuing to the present, the rate of seismicity in the Sombrero suddenly increased, and a new locus of activity developed to the east of the previous location. Accurate estimates of seismic hazard, and the tsunamigenic potential of seismic events, depend on an accurate and comprehensive understanding of how strain is being accommodated in this corner region. Are faults locked and accumulating strain for release in a major event? Or is strain being released via slip over a diffuse system of faults? A careful analysis of seismicity patterns in the Sombrero region has the potential to both identify faults and modes of failure, provided the aggregation scheme is tuned to properly identify related events. To this end, we experimented with a scheme to identify seismic sequences based on physical and temporal proximity, under the assumptions that (a) events occur on related fault systems as stress is refocused by immediately previous events and (b) such 'stress waves' die out with time, so that two events that occur on the same system within a relatively short time window can be said to have a similar 'trigger' in ways that two nearby events that occurred years apart cannot. Patterns that emerge from the identification, temporal sequence, and refined locations of such sequences of events carry information about stress accommodation that is obscured by large clouds of

  17. SHC, Seismic Hazard Assessment for Eastern US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savy, J.; Davis, B.

    2001-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: SHC was developed as part of the Eastern United States (EUS) Seismic Hazard Characterization (SHC) Project to design an SHC methodology for the region east of the Rocky Mountains in a form suitable for probabilistic risk assessment and to apply that methodology to 69 site locations, some of them with local soil conditions. The method developed uses expert opinions to obtain the input to the analysis. SHC contains four modules which calculate the seismic hazard at a site located in a region of diffuse seismicity, where the seismicity is modeled by area sources. SHC integrates the opinions of 11 seismicity and five ground-motion experts. The PRDS model generates the discrete probability density function of the distances to the site for the various seismic source zones. These probability distributions are used by the COMAP module to generate the set of all alternative maps and the discrete probability density of the seismic zonation maps for each expert. The third module, ALEAS, uses these maps and their weights to calculate the best estimate and constant percentile hazard distribution resulting from the choice of a given seismicity expert for all ground-motion experts. This module can be used alone to perform a seismic hazard analysis as well as in conjunction with the other modules. The fourth module, COMB, combines the best- estimate and constant-percentile hazard over all seismicity experts, using the set of weights calculated by ALEAS, to produce the final probability distribution of the hazard for the site under consideration so that the hazard analysis can be performed for any location in the EUS. Local geological-site characteristics are incorporated in a generic fashion, and the data are developed in a generic manner. 2 - Method of solution: SHC uses a seismic-source approach utilizing statistical and geological evidence to define geographical regions with homogeneous Poisson activity throughout the zone, described by a

  18. Seismic fragility evaluation of unreinforced masonry walls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Y.J.; Hofmayer, C.H.; Reich, M.; Lee, S.K.

    1991-01-01

    A practical analysis scheme to evaluate the seismic fragility of unreinforced masonry walls which are used to various places in older reactor facilities is presented. Among the several failure modes for such walls, the out-of-plane bending failure is considered to be a major risk contributor in seismic PRA studies. In order to evaluate this failure mode, the use of an equivalent linear approximation method is examined based on comparisons with available test data and nonlinear time history analyses. 6 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  19. Seismic Creep, USA Images

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Seismic creep is the constant or periodic movement on a fault as contrasted with the sudden rupture associated with an earthquake. It is a usually slow deformation...

  20. BUILDING 341 Seismic Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halle, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-06-15

    The Seismic Evaluation of Building 341 located at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, California has been completed. The subject building consists of a main building, Increment 1, and two smaller additions; Increments 2 and 3.

  1. Seismic data acquisition systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolvankar, V.G.; Nadre, V.N.; Rao, D.S.

    1989-01-01

    Details of seismic data acquisition systems developed at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Bombay are reported. The seismic signals acquired belong to different signal bandwidths in the band from 0.02 Hz to 250 Hz. All these acquisition systems are built around a unique technique of recording multichannel data on to a single track of an audio tape and in digital form. Techniques of how these signals in different bands of frequencies were acquired and recorded are described. Method of detecting seismic signals and its performance is also discussed. Seismic signals acquired in different set-ups are illustrated. Time indexing systems for different set-ups and multichannel waveform display systems which form essential part of the data acquisition systems are also discussed. (author). 13 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

  2. PSMG switchgear seismic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuehster, C.J.

    1977-01-01

    LOFT primary coolant system motor generator (PSMG) switchgear boxes were analyzed for sliding and overturning during a seismic event. Boxes are located in TAN-650, Room B-239, with the PSMG generators. Both boxes are sufficiently anchored to the floor

  3. Seismic facies; Facies sismicas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johann, Paulo Roberto Schroeder [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Exploracao e Producao Corporativo. Gerencia de Reservas e Reservatorios]. E-mail: johann@petrobras.com.br

    2004-11-01

    The method presented herein describes the seismic facies as representations of curves and vertical matrixes of the lithotypes proportions. The seismic facies are greatly interested in capturing the spatial distributions (3D) of regionalized variables, as for example, lithotypes, sedimentary facies groups and/ or porosity and/or other properties of the reservoirs and integrate them into the 3D geological modeling (Johann, 1997). Thus when interpreted as curves or vertical matrixes of proportions, seismic facies allow us to build a very important tool for structural analysis of regionalized variables. The matrixes have an important application in geostatistical modeling. In addition, this approach provides results about the depth and scale of the wells profiles, that is, seismic data is integrated to the characterization of reservoirs in depth maps and in high resolution maps. The link between the different necessary technical phases involved in the classification of the segments of seismic traces is described herein in groups of predefined traces of two approaches: a) not supervised and b) supervised by the geological knowledge available on the studied reservoir. The multivariate statistical methods used to obtain the maps of the seismic facies units are interesting tools to be used to provide a lithostratigraphic and petrophysical understanding of a petroleum reservoir. In the case studied these seismic facies units are interpreted as representative of the depositional system as a part of the Namorado Turbiditic System, Namorado Field, Campos Basin.Within the scope of PRAVAP 19 (Programa Estrategico de Recuperacao Avancada de Petroleo - Strategic Program of Advanced Petroleum Recovery) some research work on algorithms is underway to select new optimized attributes to apply seismic facies. One example is the extraction of attributes based on the wavelet transformation and on the time-frequency analysis methodology. PRAVAP is also carrying out research work on an

  4. Seismic Consequence Abstraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gross, M.

    2004-01-01

    The primary purpose of this model report is to develop abstractions for the response of engineered barrier system (EBS) components to seismic hazards at a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and to define the methodology for using these abstractions in a seismic scenario class for the Total System Performance Assessment - License Application (TSPA-LA). A secondary purpose of this model report is to provide information for criticality studies related to seismic hazards. The seismic hazards addressed herein are vibratory ground motion, fault displacement, and rockfall due to ground motion. The EBS components are the drip shield, the waste package, and the fuel cladding. The requirements for development of the abstractions and the associated algorithms for the seismic scenario class are defined in ''Technical Work Plan For: Regulatory Integration Modeling of Drift Degradation, Waste Package and Drip Shield Vibratory Motion and Seismic Consequences'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171520]). The development of these abstractions will provide a more complete representation of flow into and transport from the EBS under disruptive events. The results from this development will also address portions of integrated subissue ENG2, Mechanical Disruption of Engineered Barriers, including the acceptance criteria for this subissue defined in Section 2.2.1.3.2.3 of the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan, Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274])

  5. Seismic Consequence Abstraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Gross

    2004-10-25

    The primary purpose of this model report is to develop abstractions for the response of engineered barrier system (EBS) components to seismic hazards at a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and to define the methodology for using these abstractions in a seismic scenario class for the Total System Performance Assessment - License Application (TSPA-LA). A secondary purpose of this model report is to provide information for criticality studies related to seismic hazards. The seismic hazards addressed herein are vibratory ground motion, fault displacement, and rockfall due to ground motion. The EBS components are the drip shield, the waste package, and the fuel cladding. The requirements for development of the abstractions and the associated algorithms for the seismic scenario class are defined in ''Technical Work Plan For: Regulatory Integration Modeling of Drift Degradation, Waste Package and Drip Shield Vibratory Motion and Seismic Consequences'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171520]). The development of these abstractions will provide a more complete representation of flow into and transport from the EBS under disruptive events. The results from this development will also address portions of integrated subissue ENG2, Mechanical Disruption of Engineered Barriers, including the acceptance criteria for this subissue defined in Section 2.2.1.3.2.3 of the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan, Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274]).

  6. Recent Seismicity in Texas and Research Design and Progress of the TexNet-CISR Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennings, P.; Savvaidis, A.; Rathje, E.; Olson, J. E.; DeShon, H. R.; Datta-Gupta, A.; Eichhubl, P.; Nicot, J. P.; Kahlor, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    The recent increase in the rate of seismicity in Texas has prompted the establishment of an interdisciplinary, interinstitutional collaboration led by the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology which includes the TexNet Seismic Monitoring and Research project as funded by The State of Texas (roughly 2/3rds of our funding) and the industry-funded Center for Integrated Seismicity Research (CISR) (1/3 of funding). TexNet is monitoring and cataloging seismicity across Texas using a new backbone seismic network, investigating site-specific earthquake sequences by deploying temporary seismic monitoring stations, and conducting reservoir modeling studies. CISR expands TexNet research into the interdisciplinary realm to more thoroughly study the factors that contribute to seismicity, characterize the associated hazard and risk, develop strategies for mitigation and management, and develop methods of effective communication for all stakeholders. The TexNet-CISR research portfolio has 6 themes: seismicity monitoring, seismology, geologic and hydrologic description, geomechanics and reservoir modeling, seismic hazard and risk assessment, and seismic risk social science. Twenty+ specific research projects span and connect these themes. We will provide a synopsis of research progress including recent seismicity trends in Texas; Fort Worth Basin integrated studies including geological modeling and fault characterization, fluid injection data syntheses, and reservoir and geomechanical modeling; regional ground shaking characterization and mapping, infrastructure vulnerability assessment; and social science topics of public perception and information seeking behavior.

  7. Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability of Reinforced Concrete Frame buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatiha Cherifi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The seismic activity remains strong in the north of Algeria since no less than 30 earthquakes per month are recorded. The large number of structures built before the introduction of the seismic standards represents a high seismic risk. Analysis of damage suffered during the last earthquakes highlighted the vulnerability of the existing structures. In this study the seismic behavior of the existing buildings in Tizi-Ouzou city, located in the north of Algeria, is investigated. To make this assessment, a database was created following a building inventory based on a set of technical folders and field visits. The listed buildings have been classified into different typologies. Only reinforced concrete frame buildings are considered in this paper. The approach adopted to estimate structures damage is based on four main steps: 1 construction of capacity curves using static nonlinear method “push-over”, 2 estimate of seismic hazard, 3 determination of performance points, and finally 4 deduction of damage levels.

  8. Seismic fragility test of a 6-inch diameter pipe system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, W.P.; Onesto, A.T.; DeVita, V.

    1987-02-01

    This report contains the test results and assessments of seismic fragility tests performed on a 6-inch diameter piping system. The test was funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and conducted by ETEC. The objective of the test was to investigate the ability of a representative nuclear piping system to withstand high level dynamic seismic and other loadings. Levels of loadings achieved during seismic testing were 20 to 30 times larger than normal elastic design evaluations to ASME Level D limits would permit. Based on failure data obtained during seismic and other dynamic testing, it was concluded that nuclear piping systems are inherently able to withstand much larger dynamic seismic loadings than permitted by current design practice criteria or predicted by the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods and several proposed nonlinear methods of failure analysis

  9. Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

  10. SITE WIDE SHORT CIRCUIT STUDY ASSESSMENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CARRATT, R.T.

    2004-01-01

    The Department of Energy requested that Fluor Hanford develop a plan to update the electrical distribution studies for FH managed facilities. Toward this end, an assessment of FH's nuclear facilities was performed to determine whether a current short circuit study of the facility electrical distribution system exists, and the status of such study. This report presents the methodology and results of that assessment. The assessment identified 29 relevant facilities. Of these, a short circuit study could not be identified for 15 facilities. A short circuit study was found to exist for fourteen facilities, however, of these 14, four were not released into a controlled document system, and two were not performed for the entire electrical distribution system. It is recommended that for four of the facilities no further action is required based upon the limited nature of the existing electrical system, or as in the case of PFP, the status of the existing short circuit study was determined adequate. For the majority of the facilities without a short circuit study, it is recommended that one is performed, and released into a controlled document system. Two facilities require further evaluation due to missing or conflicting documentation. For the remainder of the facilities, the recommendations are to review and revise as appropriate the existing study, and release into a controlled document system. A summation of the recommendations is presented

  11. Seismic isolation - efficient procedure for seismic response assessement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamfir, M. A.; Androne, M.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this analysis is to reduce the dynamic response of a structure. The seismic isolation solution must take into consideration the specific site ground motion. In this paper will be presented results obtained by applying the seismic isolation method. Based on the obtained results, important conclusions can be outlined: the seismic isolation device has the ability to reduce seismic acceleration of the seismic isolated structure to values that no longer present a danger to people and environment; the seismic isolation solution is limiting devices deformations to safety values for ensuring structural integrity and stability of the entire system; the effective seismic energy dissipation and with no side effects both for the seismic isolated building and for the devices used, and the return to the initial position before earthquake occurence are obtained with acceptable permanent displacement. (authors)

  12. Delineation of seismic source zones based on seismicity parameters ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    these source zones were evaluated and were used in the hazard evaluation. ... seismic sources, linear and areal, were considered in the present study to model the seismic sources in the ..... taken as an authentic reference manual for iden-.

  13. Seismic margin analysis technique for nuclear power plant structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Jeong Moon; Choi, In Kil

    2001-04-01

    In general, the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) and the Seismic Margin Assessment(SAM) are used for the evaluation of realistic seismic capacity of nuclear power plant structures. Seismic PRA is a systematic process to evaluate the seismic safety of nuclear power plant. In our country, SPRA has been used to perform the probabilistic safety assessment for the earthquake event. SMA is a simple and cost effective manner to quantify the seismic margin of individual structural elements. This study was performed to improve the reliability of SMA results and to confirm the assessment procedure. To achieve this goal, review for the current status of the techniques and procedures was performed. Two methodologies, CDFM (Conservative Deterministic Failure Margin) sponsored by NRC and FA (Fragility Analysis) sponsored by EPRI, were developed for the seismic margin review of NPP structures. FA method was originally developed for Seismic PRA. CDFM approach is more amenable to use by experienced design engineers including utility staff design engineers. In this study, detailed review on the procedures of CDFM and FA methodology was performed

  14. Seismic forecast using geostatistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grecu, Valeriu; Mateiciuc, Doru

    2007-01-01

    The main idea of this research direction consists in the special way of constructing a new type of mathematical function as being a correlation between a computed statistical quantity and another physical quantity. This type of function called 'position function' was taken over by the authors of this study in the field of seismology with the hope of solving - at least partially - the difficult problem of seismic forecast. The geostatistic method of analysis focuses on the process of energy accumulation in a given seismic area, completing this analysis by a so-called loading function. This function - in fact a temporal function - describes the process of energy accumulation during a seismic cycle from a given seismic area. It was possible to discover a law of evolution of the seismic cycles that was materialized in a so-called characteristic function. This special function will help us to forecast the magnitude and the occurrence moment of the largest earthquake in the analysed area. Since 2000, the authors have been evolving to a new stage of testing: real - time analysis, in order to verify the quality of the method. There were five large earthquakes forecasts. (authors)

  15. Pickering seismic safety margin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghobarah, A.; Heidebrecht, A.C.; Tso, W.K.

    1992-06-01

    A study was conducted to recommend a methodology for the seismic safety margin review of existing Canadian CANDU nuclear generating stations such as Pickering A. The purpose of the seismic safety margin review is to determine whether the nuclear plant has sufficient seismic safety margin over its design basis to assure plant safety. In this review process, it is possible to identify the weak links which might limit the seismic performance of critical structures, systems and components. The proposed methodology is a modification the EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) approach. The methodology includes: the characterization of the site margin earthquake, the definition of the performance criteria for the elements of a success path, and the determination of the seismic withstand capacity. It is proposed that the margin earthquake be established on the basis of using historical records and the regional seismo-tectonic and site specific evaluations. The ability of the components and systems to withstand the margin earthquake is determined by database comparisons, inspection, analysis or testing. An implementation plan for the application of the methodology to the Pickering A NGS is prepared

  16. Worldwide Assessment of the Status of Seismic Zonation, Fourth International Forum on Seismic Zonation, Proceedings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, W.W.

    1994-01-01

    We are pleased to provide you with information developed for the Fourth International Forum on Seismic Zonation which will be convened in two locations year in conjunction two major international meetings. The objectives are: 1) to assess the status of seismic zonation in every country of the world, 2) to evaluate the reasons for advances and new initiatives, and 3) to foster continued cooperation. Seismic zonation is the process that leads to risk reduction and sustainability of new development. It is based on the division of a geographic region into smaller areas or zones on the basis of an integrated assessment of the hazard, built, and policy environments of the region. Seismic zonation depends on hazard mapping performed on national/regional, subregional, and urban (i.e., microzonation) scales depending on the particular application. We gratefully acknowledge the written communications of many professionals who responded to our request for information. Also, we acknowledge the use of information contained in five valuable reports (see directories in the Appendices for information on where to obtain copies of the reports): 1. United Nations, 1990, Cooperative Project for Seismic Risk Reduction in the Mediterranean Region (SEISMED), proceedings, Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator, Geneva, Switzerland, 3 vols. (Franco Maranzana -

  17. Seismicity and seismic monitoring in the Asse salt mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flach, D.; Gommlich, G.; Hente, B.

    1987-01-01

    Seismicity analyses are made in order to assess the safety of candidate sites for ultimate disposal of hazardous wastes. The report in hand reviews the seismicity history of the Asse salt mine and presents recent results of a measuring campaign made in the area. The monitoring network installed at the site supplies data and information on the regional seismicity, on seismic amplitudes under ground and above ground, and on microseismic activities. (DG) [de

  18. Optimizing Seismic Monitoring Networks for EGS and Conventional Geothermal Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraft, Toni; Herrmann, Marcus; Bethmann, Falko; Stefan, Wiemer

    2013-04-01

    In the past several years, geological energy technologies receive growing attention and have been initiated in or close to urban areas. Some of these technologies involve injecting fluids into the subsurface (e.g., oil and gas development, waste disposal, and geothermal energy development) and have been found or suspected to cause small to moderate sized earthquakes. These earthquakes, which may have gone unnoticed in the past when they occurred in remote sparsely populated areas, are now posing a considerable risk for the public acceptance of these technologies in urban areas. The permanent termination of the EGS project in Basel, Switzerland after a number of induced ML~3 (minor) earthquakes in 2006 is one prominent example. It is therefore essential for the future development and success of these geological energy technologies to develop strategies for managing induced seismicity and keeping the size of induced earthquakes at a level that is acceptable to all stakeholders. Most guidelines and recommendations on induced seismicity published since the 1970ies conclude that an indispensable component of such a strategy is the establishment of seismic monitoring in an early stage of a project. This is because an appropriate seismic monitoring is the only way to detect and locate induced microearthquakes with sufficient certainty to develop an understanding of the seismic and geomechanical response of the reservoir to the geotechnical operation. In addition, seismic monitoring lays the foundation for the establishment of advanced traffic light systems and is therefore an important confidence building measure towards the local population and authorities. We have developed an optimization algorithm for seismic monitoring networks in urban areas that allows to design and evaluate seismic network geometries for arbitrary geotechnical operation layouts. The algorithm is based on the D-optimal experimental design that aims to minimize the error ellipsoid of the linearized

  19. Delineation of seismic source zones based on seismicity parameters ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In the present study, an attempt has been made to delineate seismic source zones in the study area (south India) based on the seismicity parameters. Seismicity parameters and the maximum probable earthquake for these source zones were evaluated and were used in the hazard evaluation. The probabilistic evaluation of ...

  20. Seismic Microzonation for Refinement of Seismic Load Parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savich, A. I.; Bugaevskii, A. G., E-mail: office@geodyn.ru, E-mail: bugaevskiy@geodyn.ru [Center of the Office of Geodynamic Observations in the Power Sector, an affiliate of JSC “Institut Gidroproekt” (Russian Federation)

    2016-05-15

    Functional dependencies are established for the characteristics of seismic transients recorded at various points of a studied site, which are used to propose a new approach to seismic microzonation (SMZ) that enables the creation of new SMZ maps of strong seismic motion, with due regard for dynamic parameters of recorded transients during weak earthquakes.

  1. Application of the neo-deterministic seismic microzonation procedure in Bulgaria and validation of the seismic input against Eurocode 8

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paskaleva, I.; Kouteva, M.; Vaccari, F.; Panza, G.F.

    2008-03-01

    The earthquake record and the Code for design and construction in seismic regions in Bulgaria have shown that the territory of the Republic of Bulgaria is exposed to a high seismic risk due to local shallow and regional strong intermediate-depth seismic sources. The available strong motion database is quite limited, and therefore not representative at all of the real hazard. The application of the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment procedure for two main Bulgarian cities has been capable to supply a significant database of synthetic strong motions for the target sites, applicable for earthquake engineering purposes. The main advantage of the applied deterministic procedure is the possibility to take simultaneously and correctly into consideration the contribution to the earthquake ground motion at the target sites of the seismic source and of the seismic wave propagation in the crossed media. We discuss in this study the result of some recent applications of the neo-deterministic seismic microzonation procedure to the cities of Sofia and Russe. The validation of the theoretically modeled seismic input against Eurocode 8 and the few available records at these sites is discussed. (author)

  2. Induced seismicity. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segall, P.

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this project has been to develop a fundamental understanding of seismicity associated with energy production. Earthquakes are known to be associated with oil, gas, and geothermal energy production. The intent is to develop physical models that predict when seismicity is likely to occur, and to determine to what extent these earthquakes can be used to infer conditions within energy reservoirs. Early work focused on earthquakes induced by oil and gas extraction. Just completed research has addressed earthquakes within geothermal fields, such as The Geysers in northern California, as well as the interactions of dilatancy, friction, and shear heating, on the generation of earthquakes. The former has involved modeling thermo- and poro-elastic effects of geothermal production and water injection. Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers are used to measure deformation associated with geothermal activity, and these measurements along with seismic data are used to test and constrain thermo-mechanical models

  3. Induced Seismicity Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, S. R.; Jarpe, S.; Harben, P.

    2014-12-01

    There are many seismological aspects associated with monitoring of permanent storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) in geologic formations. Many of these include monitoring underground gas migration through detailed tomographic studies of rock properties, integrity of the cap rock and micro seismicity with time. These types of studies require expensive deployments of surface and borehole sensors in the vicinity of the CO2 injection wells. Another problem that may exist in CO2 sequestration fields is the potential for damaging induced seismicity associated with fluid injection into the geologic reservoir. Seismic hazard monitoring in CO2 sequestration fields requires a seismic network over a spatially larger region possibly having stations in remote settings. Expensive observatory-grade seismic systems are not necessary for seismic hazard deployments or small-scale tomographic studies. Hazard monitoring requires accurate location of induced seismicity to magnitude levels only slightly less than that which can be felt at the surface (e.g. magnitude 1), and the frequencies of interest for tomographic analysis are ~1 Hz and greater. We have developed a seismo/acoustic smart sensor system that can achieve the goals necessary for induced seismicity monitoring in CO2 sequestration fields. The unit is inexpensive, lightweight, easy to deploy, can operate remotely under harsh conditions and features 9 channels of recording (currently 3C 4.5 Hz geophone, MEMS accelerometer and microphone). An on-board processor allows for satellite transmission of parameter data to a processing center. Continuous or event-detected data is kept on two removable flash SD cards of up to 64+ Gbytes each. If available, data can be transmitted via cell phone modem or picked up via site visits. Low-power consumption allows for autonomous operation using only a 10 watt solar panel and a gel-cell battery. The system has been successfully tested for long-term (> 6 months) remote operations over a wide range

  4. Seismic analysis of liquid metal fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, R.J.; Martelli, A.

    1989-06-01

    This report is a general survey of the recent methods to predict the seismic structural behaviour of LMFBRs. It shall put into evidence the impact of seismic analysis on the design of the different structures of the reactor. This report is addressed to specialists and institutions of governmental organizations in industrialized and developing countries responsible for the design and operation of LMFBRs. The information presented should enable specialists in the R and D institutions and industries likely to be involved, to establish the correct course of the design and operation of LMFBRs. Also, the safety aspect of seismic risk are emphasized in the report. Refs and figs

  5. Seismic microzonation of Bangalore, India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Evaluation of seismic hazards and microzonation of cities enable us to characterize the potential seismic areas which have similar exposures to haz- ards of earthquakes, and these results can be used for designing new structures or retrofitting the existing ones. Study of seismic hazard and preparation of microzonation ...

  6. Status report on seismic re-evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    re-evaluation of individual plants is typically carried out at intervals of approximately ten years. Major re-evaluations typically take 2 to 3 years to perform at a cost of approximately $US 1 million for software alone, although the majority of re-evaluations are carried out in less time and at lower cost. Methods of seismic re-evaluation include PSA, margins assessments and deterministic analysis, and a common feature of the process is a seismic walk-down, often based on SQUG principles. The input motion levels, seismic categorisation, analysis methods and assessment criteria that are applied depend on the objectives of the re-evaluation. In several responses they are indicated to be generally similar to those specified for new plant. In situ inspection of structures and plant is generally adopted, although most countries use original specifications for material properties, with some in situ evaluation where possible. More realistic criteria than would usually be adopted for new plant are often employed in the assessment of plant behaviour for severe accidents or risk estimates. The majority of countries are satisfied with the seismic re-evaluations that have been carried out to date, although there are a number of recommendations for improvements based on the experience gained so far. The process has resulted in some quite extensive physical modifications, improving the seismic robustness of structures, anchorages and restraints, particularly in older plants. Approximately half of the responding countries reported that they were engaged in active research in the specific field of seismic re-evaluation, but it is noted that there is also considerable effort taking place in the wider field of seismic research, and that this has a direct bearing on the re-evaluation process, leading to an improved understanding of failure modes and more realistic assessments of section capacity. There is also a need to identify future areas of research. It is recommended that some

  7. Optimization Criteria In Design Of Seismic Isolated Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clemente, Paolo; Buffarini, Giacomo

    2008-01-01

    Use of new anti-seismic techniques is certainly suitable for buildings of strategic importance and, in general, in the case of very high risk. For ordinary buildings, instead, the cost of base isolation system should be balanced by an equivalent saving in the structure. The comparison criteria have been first defined, then a large numerical investigation has been carried out to analyze the effectiveness and the economic suitability of seismic isolation in concrete buildings

  8. The seismic analyzer: interpreting and illustrating 2D seismic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Daniel; Giertsen, Christopher; Thurmond, John; Gjelberg, John; Gröller, M Eduard

    2008-01-01

    We present a toolbox for quickly interpreting and illustrating 2D slices of seismic volumetric reflection data. Searching for oil and gas involves creating a structural overview of seismic reflection data to identify hydrocarbon reservoirs. We improve the search of seismic structures by precalculating the horizon structures of the seismic data prior to interpretation. We improve the annotation of seismic structures by applying novel illustrative rendering algorithms tailored to seismic data, such as deformed texturing and line and texture transfer functions. The illustrative rendering results in multi-attribute and scale invariant visualizations where features are represented clearly in both highly zoomed in and zoomed out views. Thumbnail views in combination with interactive appearance control allows for a quick overview of the data before detailed interpretation takes place. These techniques help reduce the work of seismic illustrators and interpreters.

  9. Strategy for seismic upgrading of chemical plant taking productivity as criterion of judgment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oshima, M.; Kase, T.; Yashiro, H.; Fukushima, S.

    2005-01-01

    Seismic upgrading and modification of existing chemical plant facilities have been performed by means of a procedure of the Seismic Design Code and Guidelines of High-pressure Gas Facilities in Japan. Main purpose of this seismic design code is to ensure public safety at seismic events. From the viewpoints of seismic risk of corporate management, CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) and productivity of the plants are also important for seismic assessment. In this paper, authors proposed strategy for seismic assessment to select appropriate pre-earthquake upgrading and modification considering productivity of plants based on fault tree analysis. This assessment will enable to select weak damage modes and to allocate countermeasure cost optimally to the selected damage modes. (authors)

  10. Relays undergo seismic tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, J.C.

    1977-01-01

    Utilities are required by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to document that seismic vibration will not adversely affect critical electrical equipment. Seismic testing should be designed to determine the malfunction level (fragility testing). Input possibilities include a continuous sine, a decaying sine, a sine beat, random vibrations, and combinations of random vibrations and sine beat. The sine beat most accurately simulates a seismic event. Test frequencies have a broad range in order to accommodate a variety of relay types and cabinet mounting. Simulation of motion along three axes offers several options, but is best achieved by three in-phase single-axis vibration machines that are less likely to induce testing fatigue failure. Consensus on what constitutes relay failure favors a maximum two microsecond discontinuity. Performance tests should be conducted for at least two of the following: (1) nonoperating modes, (2) operating modes, or (3) the transition above the two modes, with the monitoring mode documented for all three. Results should specify a capability curve of maximum safe seismic acceleration and a graph plotting acceleration with sine-beat frequency

  11. Mobile seismic exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dräbenstedt, A., E-mail: a.draebenstedt@polytec.de, E-mail: rembe@iei.tu-clausthal.de, E-mail: ulrich.polom@liag-hannover.de; Seyfried, V. [Research & Development, Polytec GmbH, Waldbronn (Germany); Cao, X.; Rembe, C., E-mail: a.draebenstedt@polytec.de, E-mail: rembe@iei.tu-clausthal.de, E-mail: ulrich.polom@liag-hannover.de [Institute of Electrical Information Technology, TU Clausthal, Clausthal-Zellerfeld (Germany); Polom, U., E-mail: a.draebenstedt@polytec.de, E-mail: rembe@iei.tu-clausthal.de, E-mail: ulrich.polom@liag-hannover.de [Leibniz Institute of Applied Geophysics, Hannover (Germany); Pätzold, F.; Hecker, P. [Institute of Flight Guidance, TU Braunschweig, Braunschweig (Germany); Zeller, T. [Clausthaler Umwelttechnik Institut CUTEC, Clausthal-Zellerfeld (Germany)

    2016-06-28

    Laser-Doppler-Vibrometry (LDV) is an established technique to measure vibrations in technical systems with picometer vibration-amplitude resolution. Especially good sensitivity and resolution can be achieved at an infrared wavelength of 1550 nm. High-resolution vibration measurements are possible over more than 100 m distance. This advancement of the LDV technique enables new applications. The detection of seismic waves is an application which has not been investigated so far because seismic waves outside laboratory scales are usually analyzed at low frequencies between approximately 1 Hz and 250 Hz and require velocity resolutions in the range below 1 nm/s/√Hz. Thermal displacements and air turbulence have critical influences to LDV measurements at this low-frequency range leading to noise levels of several 100 nm/√Hz. Commonly seismic waves are measured with highly sensitive inertial sensors (geophones or Micro Electro-Mechanical Sensors (MEMS)). Approaching a laser geophone based on LDV technique is the topic of this paper. We have assembled an actively vibration-isolated optical table in a minivan which provides a hole in its underbody. The laser-beam of an infrared LDV assembled on the optical table impinges the ground below the car through the hole. A reference geophone has detected remaining vibrations on the table. We present the results from the first successful experimental demonstration of contactless detection of seismic waves from a movable vehicle with a LDV as laser geophone.

  12. Understanding induced seismicity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elsworth, Derek; Spiers, Christopher J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304829323; Niemeijer, Andre R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/370832132

    2016-01-01

    Fluid injection–induced seismicity has become increasingly widespread in oil- and gas-producing areas of the United States (1–3) and western Canada. It has shelved deep geothermal energy projects in Switzerland and the United States (4), and its effects are especially acute in Oklahoma, where

  13. Prácticas culturales y gestión del riesgo sísmico: la cultura de las buenas costumbres / Cultural practices and seismic risk management: culture of good habits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina A. Zambrano-Hernández

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Resumen Objetivo: reconocer y comprender las prácticas culturales y sentidos referidos a la gestión del riesgo sísmico de un grupo poblacional que ha vivido diversas situaciones de este tipo, en la ciudad de Manizales, Caldas. Metodología: este estudio se ubicó en el campo de la investigación cualitativa, basado en la micro-etnografía y el análisis cualitativo, asumiendo como fundamento que la investigación de este tipo centra sus análisis en el contexto histórico cultural de las comunidades. Resultados: las prácticas culturales relacionadas con la gestión del riesgo son creaciones de significado que a partir del saber popular se configuran con su particular modelo de internalización cultural frente al fenómeno sísmico. Este proceso de aprendizaje comunitario se soporta a partir de convenciones morales y valores familiares que apremian desde una ideología de prevención y supervivencia, lo que se constituye para dicha comunidad en un hecho legítimo. Por otra parte, se encuentra, la no apropiación simbólica del conocimiento de carácter técnico-científico, situación que genera resistencias comunitarias a la apropiación de los nuevos contenidos, por no sentir un verdadero respeto e inclusión de su tradición cultural. Conclusión: la gestión del riesgo no es sólo la reducción de éste, sino la comprensión social de las prácticas culturales, de conductas y modos de vida (incluso de ideologías y de perspectivas de mundo, de vida, de religión, que en términos sociales, requiere de la participación de los diversos estratos, sectores de interés y grupos representativos, y así, reconocer cómo se construye en colectivo la gestión del riesgo como una cultura de las buenas costumbres./ Abstract Objective: to recognize and understand cultural practices and meanings related to seismic risk management of a community that has lived different situations of this kind in the city of Manizales, Caldas. Methodology: is a

  14. High Voltage Seismic Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogacz, Adrian; Pala, Damian; Knafel, Marcin

    2015-04-01

    This contribution describes the preliminary result of annual cooperation of three student research groups from AGH UST in Krakow, Poland. The aim of this cooperation was to develop and construct a high voltage seismic wave generator. Constructed device uses a high-energy electrical discharge to generate seismic wave in ground. This type of device can be applied in several different methods of seismic measurement, but because of its limited power it is mainly dedicated for engineering geophysics. The source operates on a basic physical principles. The energy is stored in capacitor bank, which is charged by two stage low to high voltage converter. Stored energy is then released in very short time through high voltage thyristor in spark gap. The whole appliance is powered from li-ion battery and controlled by ATmega microcontroller. It is possible to construct larger and more powerful device. In this contribution the structure of device with technical specifications is resented. As a part of the investigation the prototype was built and series of experiments conducted. System parameter was measured, on this basis specification of elements for the final device were chosen. First stage of the project was successful. It was possible to efficiently generate seismic waves with constructed device. Then the field test was conducted. Spark gap wasplaced in shallowborehole(0.5 m) filled with salt water. Geophones were placed on the ground in straight line. The comparison of signal registered with hammer source and sparker source was made. The results of the test measurements are presented and discussed. Analysis of the collected data shows that characteristic of generated seismic signal is very promising, thus confirms possibility of practical application of the new high voltage generator. The biggest advantage of presented device after signal characteristics is its size which is 0.5 x 0.25 x 0.2 m and weight approximately 7 kg. This features with small li-ion battery makes

  15. Romanian seismic network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Rizescu, Mihaela; Popa, Mihaela; Grigore, Adrian

    2000-01-01

    The research in the field of seismology in Romania is mainly carried out by the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP). The NIEP activities are mainly concerned with the fundamental research financed by research contracts from public sources and the maintenance and operation of the Romanian seismic network. A three stage seismic network is now operating under NIEP, designed mainly to monitor the Vrancea seismic region in a magnitude range from microearthquakes to strong events: - network of 18 short-period seismometers (S13); - Teledyne Geotech Instruments (Texas); - network of 7 stations with local digital recording (PCM-5000) on magnetic tape, made up of, S13 geophone (T=2 s) on vertical component and SH1 geophone (T=5 s) on horizontal components; - network of 28 SMA-1 accelerometers and 30 digital accelerometers (Kinemetrics - K2) installed in the free field conditions in the framework of the joint German-Romanian cooperation program (CRC); the K2 instruments cover a magnitude range from 1.4 to 8.0. Since 1994, MLR (Muntele Rosu) station has become part of the GEOFON network and was provided with high performance broad band instruments. At Bucharest and Timisoara data centers, an automated and networked seismological system performs the on-line digital acquisition and processing of the telemetered data. Automatic processing includes discrimination between local and distant seismic events, earthquake location and magnitude computation, and source parameter determination for local earthquakes. The results are rapidly distributed via Internet, to several seismological services in Europe and USA, to be used in the association/confirmation procedures. Plans for new developments of the network include the upgrade from analog to digital telemetry and new stations for monitoring local seismicity. (authors)

  16. CONCIDERATION OF FOUNDATION AND SEISMIC CONDITIONS OF AREA IN ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC RESISTANCE OF REACTOR COMPARTMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SEDIN V. L.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement. Providing of safe exploitation of nuclear power plants, as well as a safety of staff and environment is a very important problem. A distinct feature of this problem is a necessity to provide not only a strength of structures, but also a safe functioning of all systems that control nuclear process. In particular, the influence of earthquake should be considered on constructions of buildings and structures of nuclear and thermal power plant, taking into account soil-structure interaction. According to IAEA’s SSD-9 recommendations, a risk of vibration of soil should be analyzed for each NPP connected with earthquakes soil that means researches, including general, detailed and microseismic zoning of the area works. One of the distinctive features of the considered problem is an evaluation of the seismicity of area and getting the response spectrum on the free surface. Purpose. Determination of seismic resistance of buildings of high category of safety with the example of the reactor compartment of Zaporoghskaya NPP including the soil structure interaction. Conclusion The seismicity assessment of the area and obtaining of response specters on free surface was made during research and analysis of seismic resistance of buildings of high category of safety including the effects of foundation and structures. The method of modeling of the equivalent dynamic characteristics of the base was considered during the research in seismic impacts.

  17. Seismicity, seismic input and site effects in the Sahel-Algiers region (north Algeria)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harbi, A.; Maouche, S.; Oussadou, F.; Vaccari, F.; Aoudia, A.; Panza, G.F.; Benouar, D.

    2005-07-01

    Algiers city is located in a seismogenic zone. To reduce the impact of seismic risk in this capital city, a realistic modelling of the seismic ground motion using the hybrid method that combines the finite-differences method and the modal summation, is conducted. For this purpose, a complete database in terms of geological, geophysical and earthquake data is constructed. A critical re-appraisal of the seismicity of the zone (2.25 deg. E-3.50 deg. E, 36.50 deg. N-37.00 deg. N) is performed and an earthquake list, for the period 1359-2002, is compiled. The analysis of existing and newly retrieved macroseismic information allowed the definition of earthquake parameters of macroseismic events for which a degree of reliability is assigned. Geological cross-sections have been built up to model the seismic ground motion in the city, caused by the 1989 Mont-Chenoua and the 1924 Douera earthquakes; a set of synthetic seismograms and response spectral ratio is produced for Algiers. The numerical results show that the soft sediments in Algiers centre are responsible of the noticed amplification of the seismic ground motion. (author)

  18. Optimal Retrofit Scheme for Highway Network under Seismic Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongxi Huang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Many older highway bridges in the United States (US are inadequate for seismic loads and could be severely damaged or collapsed in a relatively small earthquake. According to the most recent American Society of Civil Engineers’ infrastructure report card, one-third of the bridges in the US are rated as structurally deficient and many of these structurally deficient bridges are located in seismic zones. To improve this situation, at-risk bridges must be identified and evaluated and effective retrofitting programs should be in place to reduce their seismic vulnerabilities. In this study, a new retrofit strategy decision scheme for highway bridges under seismic hazards is developed and seamlessly integrate the scenario-based seismic analysis of bridges and the traffic network into the proposed optimization modeling framework. A full spectrum of bridge retrofit strategies is considered based on explicit structural assessment for each seismic damage state. As an empirical case study, the proposed retrofit strategy decision scheme is utilized to evaluate the bridge network in one of the active seismic zones in the US, Charleston, South Carolina. The developed modeling framework, on average, will help increase network throughput traffic capacity by 45% with a cost increase of only $15million for the Mw 5.5 event and increase the capacity fourfold with a cost of only $32m for the Mw 7.0 event.

  19. Seismic safety margins research program. Phase I final report - Overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, P.D.; Dong, R.G.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Bohn, M.P.; Chuang, T.Y.; Cummings, G.E.; Johnson, J.J.; Mensing, R.W.; Wells, J.E.

    1981-04-01

    The Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) is a multiyear, multiphase program whose overall objective is to develop improved methods for seismic safety assessments of nuclear power plants, using a probabilistic computational procedure. The program is being carried out at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and is sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. Phase I of the SSMRP was successfully completed in January 1981: A probabilistic computational procedure for the seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants has been developed and demonstrated. The methodology is implemented by three computer programs: HAZARD, which assesses the seismic hazard at a given site, SMACS, which computes in-structure and subsystem seismic responses, and SEISIM, which calculates system failure probabilities and radioactive release probabilities, given (1) the response results of SMACS, (2) a set of event trees, (3) a family of fault trees, (4) a set of structural and component fragility descriptions, and (5) a curve describing the local seismic hazard. The practicality of this methodology was demonstrated by computing preliminary release probabilities for Unit 1 of the Zion Nuclear Power Plant north of Chicago, Illinois. Studies have begun aimed at quantifying the sources of uncertainty in these computations. Numerous side studies were undertaken to examine modeling alternatives, sources of error, and available analysis techniques. Extensive sets of data were amassed and evaluated as part of projects to establish seismic input parameters and to produce the fragility curves. (author)

  20. Development of a Real-Time GPS/Seismic Displacement Meter: Seismic Component and Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernon, F.; Bock, Y.

    2002-12-01

    In two abstracts, we report on an ongoing effort to develop an Integrated Real-Time GPS/Seismic System for Orange and Western Riverside Counties, California, spanning three major strike-slip faults in southern California (San Andreas, San Jacinto, and Elsinore) and significant populations and civilian infrastructure. The system relying on existing GPS and seismic networks will collect and analyze GPS and seismic data for the purpose of estimating and disseminating real-time positions and total ground displacements (dynamic, as well as static) covering all phases of the seismic cycle, from fractions of seconds to years. Besides its intrinsic scientific use as a real-time displacement meter (transducer), the GPS/Seismic System will be a powerful tool for local and state decision makers for risk mitigation, disaster management, and structural monitoring (dams, bridges, and buildings). Furthermore, the GPS/Seismic System will become an integral part of California's spatial referencing and positioning infrastructure, which is complicated by tectonic motion, seismic displacements, and land subsidence. This development is taking place under the umbrella of the California Spatial Reference Center, in partnership with local (The Counties, Riverside County Flood and Water Conservation District, Southern California Metropolitan Water District), state (Caltrans), and Federal agencies (NGS, NASA, USGS), the geophysics community (SCEC2/SCIGN), and the private sector (RBF Consulting). The project is leveraging considerable funding, resources, and research and development from SCIGN, CSRC and two NSF-funded IT projects at UCSD and SDSU: RoadNet (Real-Time Observatories, Applications and Data Management Network) and the High Performance Wireless Research and Education Network (HPWREN). These two projects are funded to develop both the wireless networks and the integrated, seamless, and transparent information management system that will deliver seismic, geodetic, oceanographic

  1. 41 CFR 102-80.45 - What are Federal agencies' responsibilities concerning seismic safety in Federal facilities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... seismic risks in those buildings. Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What are Federal... Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Property Management Regulations System (Continued...

  2. Comparison of seismic sources for shallow seismic: sledgehammer and pyrotechnics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brom Aleksander

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The pyrotechnic materials are one of the types of the explosives materials which produce thermal, luminous or sound effects, gas, smoke and their combination as a result of a self-sustaining chemical reaction. Therefore, pyrotechnics can be used as a seismic source that is designed to release accumulated energy in a form of seismic wave recorded by tremor sensors (geophones after its passage through the rock mass. The aim of this paper was to determine the utility of pyrotechnics for shallow seismic engineering. The work presented comparing the conventional method of seismic wave excitation for seismic refraction method like plate and hammer and activating of firecrackers on the surface. The energy released by various sources and frequency spectra was compared for the two types of sources. The obtained results did not determine which sources gave the better results but showed very interesting aspects of using pyrotechnics in seismic measurements for example the use of pyrotechnic materials in MASW.

  3. Seismic fragility analysis of buried steel piping at P, L, and K reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingo, H.E.

    1989-10-01

    Analysis of seismic strength of buried cooling water piping in reactor areas is necessary to evaluate the risk of reactor operation because seismic events could damage these buried pipes and cause loss of coolant accidents. This report documents analysis of the ability of this piping to withstand the combined effects of the propagation of seismic waves, the possibility that the piping may not behave in a completely ductile fashion, and the distortions caused by relative displacements of structures connected to the piping

  4. Seismic detection of tornadoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatom, F. B.

    1993-01-01

    Tornadoes represent the most violent of all forms of atmospheric storms, each year resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage and approximately one hundred fatalities. In recent years, considerable success has been achieved in detecting tornadic storms by means of Doppler radar. However, radar systems cannot determine when a tornado is actually in contact with the ground, expect possibly at extremely close range. At the present time, human observation is the only truly reliable way of knowing that a tornado is actually on the ground. However, considerable evidence exists indicating that a tornado in contact with the ground produces a significant seismic signal. If such signals are generated, the seismic detection and warning of an imminent tornado can become a distinct possibility. 

  5. Seismic analysis - what goal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tagart, S.W.

    1978-01-01

    The seismic analysis of nuclear components is characterized today by extensive engineering computer calculations in order to satisfy both the component standard codes such as ASME III as well as federal regulations and guides. The current nuclear siesmic design procedure has envolved in a fragmented fashion and continues to change its elements as improved technology leads to changing standards and guides. The dominant trend is a monotonic increase in the overall conservation with time causing a similar trend in costs of nuclear power plants. Ironically the improvements in the state of art are feeding a process which is eroding the very incentives that attracted us to nuclear power in the first place. This paper examines the cause of this process and suggests that what is needed is a realistic goal which appropriately addresses the overall uncertainty of the seismic design process. (Auth.)

  6. Seismic capacity of switchgear

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandyopadhyay, K.; Hofmayer, C.; Kassir, M.; Pepper, S.

    1989-01-01

    As part of a component fragility program sponsored by the USNRC, BNL has collected existing information on the seismic capacity of switchgear assemblies from major manufacturers. Existing seismic test data for both low and medium voltage switchgear assemblies have been evaluated and the generic results are presented in this paper. The failure modes are identified and the corresponding generic lower bound capacity levels are established. The test response spectra have been used as a measure of the test vibration input. The results indicate that relays chatter at a very low input level at the base of the switchgear cabinet. This change of state of devices including relays have been observed. Breaker tripping occurs at a higher vibration level. Although the structural failure of internal elements have been noticed, the overall switchgear cabinet structure withstands a high vibration level. 5 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  7. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Advanced Seismic Soil Structure Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolisetti, Chandrakanth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin Leigh [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-06-01

    Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in some instances the current SPRA approach has large uncertainties, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRA’s are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (this is the estimate of all likely damaging earthquakes at the site of interest) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, 2) fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and 3) systems analysis. Two areas where NLSSI effects may be important in SPRA calculations are, 1) when calculating in-structure response at the area of interest, and 2) calculation of seismic fragilities (current fragility calculations assume a lognormal distribution for probability of failure of components). Some important effects when using NLSSI in the SPRA calculation process include, 1) gapping and sliding, 2) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of foundations atop soil, 3) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of deeply embedded structures, 4) soil dilatancy, 5) soil liquefaction, 6) surface waves, 7) buoyancy, 8) concrete cracking and 9) seismic isolation The focus of the research task presented here-in is on implementation of NLSSI into the SPRA calculation process when calculating in-structure response at the area

  8. Seismic hazard assessment in intra-plate areas and backfitting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmis, G.J.K.; Eng, P.

    2001-01-01

    Typically, fuel cycle facilities have been constructed over a 40 year time period incorporating various ages of seismic design provisions ranging from no specific seismic requirements to the life safety provisions normally incorporated in national building codes through to the latest seismic nuclear codes that provide not only for structural robustness but also include operational requirements for continued operation of essential safety functions. The task is to ensure uniform seismic risk in all facilities. Since the majority of the fuel cycle infrastructure has been built the emphasis is on re-evaluation and backfitting. The wide range of facilities included in the fuel cycle and the vastly varying hazard to safety, health and the environment suggest a performance based approach. This paper presents such an approach, placed in an intra-plate setting of a Stable Continental Region (SCR) typical to that found in Eastern Canada. (author)

  9. Reprocessing seismic data: better results below diabase sills

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makler, Marisa [Halliburton Servicos Ltda., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pellizzon, Marcela

    2008-07-01

    The effect of the diabase sills in the seismic data processing has been studied in the last twenty years. These rocks strongly influence the exploratory activities in a basin, because the diabase disturbs the sign and generates multiple and spherical divergence, increasing the exploratory risk in these areas. In the present work a method of 2D seismic reprocessing will be presented using Prestack Kirchhoff Time Migration in an older seismic data of Solimoes basin. The objective of this paper is to show the high results on the reprocessing seismic data below the diabase sills. The 2D lines processed give relevant improvement of the quality of signal, showing better the faults zones and preserving the geological structures than the older data. (author)

  10. Source of seismic signals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frankovskii, B.A.; Khor' yakov, K.A.

    1980-08-30

    Patented is a source of seismic signals consisting of a shock generator with a basic low-voltage and auxillary high-voltage stator coils, a capacitive transformer and control switches. To increase the amplitude of signal excitation a condensor battery and auxillary commutator are introduced into the device, which are connected in parallel and serially into the circuit of the main low-voltage stator coil.

  11. Stutter seismic source

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gumma, W. H.; Hughes, D. R.; Zimmerman, N. S.

    1980-08-12

    An improved seismic prospecting system comprising the use of a closely spaced sequence of source initiations at essentially the same location to provide shorter objective-level wavelets than are obtainable with a single pulse. In a preferred form, three dynamite charges are detonated in the same or three closely spaced shot holes to generate a downward traveling wavelet having increased high frequency content and reduced content at a peak frequency determined by initial testing.

  12. Toward uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Shi, X.; Ornthammarath, T.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Thant, M.; Nguyen, P. H.; Nguyen, L. M.; Solidum, R., Jr.; Irsyam, M.; Hidayati, S.; Sieh, K.

    2017-12-01

    Although most Southeast Asian countries have seismic hazard maps, various methodologies and quality result in appreciable mismatches at national boundaries. We aim to conduct a uniform assessment across the region by through standardized earthquake and fault databases, ground-shaking scenarios, and regional hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters obtained from global and national seismic networks, harmonized by removal of duplicate events and the use of moment magnitude. Our active-fault database includes fault parameters from previous studies and from the databases implemented for national seismic hazard maps. Another crucial input for seismic hazard assessment is proper evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation. Since few ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have used local observations from this region, we evaluated attenuation by comparison of instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes with predicted ground shaking from published GMPEs. We then utilize the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions into our seismic hazard assessments. Based on the database and proper GMPEs, we have constructed regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault in central Myanmar, the Sumatran Fault in Sumatra, the Palu-Koro, Matano and Lawanopo Faults in Sulawesi, and the Philippine Fault across several islands of the Philippines. In addition, our assessment demonstrates the important fact that regions with low earthquake probability may well have a higher aggregate probability of future earthquakes, since they encompass much larger areas than the areas of high probability. The significant irony then is that in areas of low to moderate probability, where building codes are usually to provide less seismic resilience, seismic risk is likely to be greater. Infrastructural damage in East Malaysia during the 2015

  13. Seismic contracts and agreements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, N.M.; Krause, V.

    1999-01-01

    Some points to consider regarding management of seismic projects within the Canadian petroleum industry were reviewed. Seismic projects involve the integration of many services. This paper focused on user-provider relationships, the project planning process, competitive bid considerations, the types of agreement used for seismic and their implications, and the impact that certain points of control may have on a company: (1) initial estimate versus actual cost, (2) liability, (3) safety and operational performance, and (4) quality of deliverables. The objective is to drive home the point that in today's environment where companies are forming, merging, or collapsing on a weekly basis , chain of command and accountability are issues that can no longer be dealt with casually. Companies must form business relationships with service providers with a full knowledge of benefits and liabilities of the style of relationship they choose. Diligent and proactive management tends to optimize cost, safety and liability issues, all of which have a bearing on the points of control available to the company

  14. Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

    2015-12-01

    Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

  15. Seismic capacity of a reinforced concrete frame structure without seismic detailing and limited ductility seismic design in moderate seismicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J. K.; Kim, I. H.

    1999-01-01

    A four-story reinforced concrete frame building model is designed for the gravity loads only. Static nonlinear pushover analyses are performed in two orthogonal horizontal directions. The overall capacity curves are converted into ADRS spectra and compared with demand spectra. At several points the deformed shape, moment and shear distribution are calculated. Based on these results limited ductility seismic design concept is proposed as an alternative seismic design approach in moderate seismicity resign

  16. Seismic safety research program plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-05-01

    This document presents a plan for seismic research to be performed by the Structural and Seismic Engineering Branch in the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The plan describes the regulatory needs and related research necessary to address the following issues: uncertainties in seismic hazard, earthquakes larger than the design basis, seismic vulnerabilities, shifts in building frequency, piping design, and the adequacy of current criteria and methods. In addition to presenting current and proposed research within the NRC, the plan discusses research sponsored by other domestic and foreign sources

  17. Seismic modelling of shallow coalfields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawton, D.C. (University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics.)

    1987-01-01

    This study was undertaken in order to determine whether reflection seismic surveys can be used to map stratigraphic and structural detail of shallow Plains-type coal deposits. Two coalfields in central Alberta were used to examine and determine optimum acquisition parameters for reflection seismic surveys in such settings. The study was based on 1-D and 2-D numerical seismic modelling using sonic and density well logs to formulate a layered earth model. Additional objectives were to interpret the reflection seismic data in terms of geologic features in the study area, and to investigate the relationship between vertical resolution and field acquisition geometry. 27 refs., 41 figs.

  18. DEPENDENCE OF DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF COMMERCIAL DAMAGES DUE TO POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKES ON THE CLASS OF SEISMIC RESISTANCE OF A BUILDING

    OpenAIRE

    Hanzada R. Zajnulabidova; Alexander M. Uzdin; Tatiana M. Chirkst

    2017-01-01

    Abstract. Objectives To determine the damage probability of earthquakes of different intensities on the example of a real projected railway station building having a framework design scheme based on the density function of damage distribution. Methods Uncertainty, always existing in nature, invalidates a deterministic approach to the assessment of territorial seismic hazards and, consequently, seismic risk. In this case, seismic risk assessment can be carried out on a probabilistic basis. Thu...

  19. The influence of backfill on seismicity

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hemp, DA

    1990-09-01

    Full Text Available , that the seismicity has been reduced in areas where backfill had been placed. A factor complicating the evaluation of backfill on seismicity is the effect of geological structures on seismicity....

  20. Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (Phase I). Project VII. Systems analysis specification of computational approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wall, I.B.; Kaul, M.K.; Post, R.I.; Tagart, S.W. Jr.; Vinson, T.J.

    1979-02-01

    An initial specification is presented of a computation approach for a probabilistic risk assessment model for use in the Seismic Safety Margin Research Program. This model encompasses the whole seismic calculational chain from seismic input through soil-structure interaction, transfer functions to the probability of component failure, integration of these failures into a system model and thereby estimate the probability of a release of radioactive material to the environment. It is intended that the primary use of this model will be in sensitivity studies to assess the potential conservatism of different modeling elements in the chain and to provide guidance on priorities for research in seismic design of nuclear power plants

  1. Seismicity and seismic hazard in Sabah, East Malaysia from earthquake and geodetic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, A.; Rawlinson, N.; Tongkul, F.; Stephenson, R.

    2017-12-01

    While the levels of seismicity are low in most of Malaysia, the state of Sabah in northern Borneo has moderate levels of seismicity. Notable earthquakes in the region include the 1976 M6.2 Lahad Datu earthquake and the 2015 M6 Ranau earthquake. The recent Ranau earthquake resulted in the deaths of 18 people on Mt Kinabalu, an estimated 100 million RM ( US$23 million) damage to buildings, roads, and infrastructure from shaking, and flooding, reduced water quality, and damage to farms from landslides. Over the last 40 years the population of Sabah has increased to over four times what it was in 1976, yet seismic hazard in Sabah remains poorly understood. Using seismic and geodetic data we hope to better quantify the hazards posed by earthquakes in Sabah, and thus help to minimize risk. In order to do this we need to know about the locations of earthquakes, types of earthquakes that occur, and faults that are generating them. We use data from 15 MetMalaysia seismic stations currently operating in Sabah to develop a region-specific velocity model from receiver functions and a pre-existing surface wave model. We use this new velocity model to (re)locate earthquakes that occurred in Sabah from 2005-2016, including a large number of aftershocks from the 2015 Ranau earthquake. We use a probabilistic nonlinear earthquake location program to locate the earthquakes and then refine their relative locations using a double difference method. The recorded waveforms are further used to obtain moment tensor solutions for these earthquakes. Earthquake locations and moment tensor solutions are then compared with the locations of faults throughout Sabah. Faults are identified from high-resolution IFSAR images and subsequent fieldwork, with a particular focus on the Lahad Datau and Ranau areas. Used together, these seismic and geodetic data can help us to develop a new seismic hazard model for Sabah, as well as aiding in the delivery of outreach activities regarding seismic hazard

  2. Handbook of nuclear power plant seismic fragilities, Seismic Safety Margins Research Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cover, L.E.; Bohn, M.P.; Campbell, R.D.; Wesley, D.A.

    1983-12-01

    The Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) has a gola to develop a complete fully coupled analysis procedure (including methods and computer codes) for estimating the risk of an earthquake-induced radioactive release from a commercial nuclear power plant. As part of this program, calculations of the seismic risk from a typical commercial nuclear reactor were made. These calculations required a knowledge of the probability of failure (fragility) of safety-related components in the reactor system which actively participate in the hypothesized accident scenarios. This report describes the development of the required fragility relations and the data sources and data reduction techniques upon which they are based. Both building and component fragilities are covered. The building fragilities are for the Zion Unit 1 reactor which was the specific plant used for development of methodology in the program. Some of the component fragilities are site-specific also, but most would be usable for other sites as well

  3. Bayesian seismic AVO inversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buland, Arild

    2002-07-01

    A new linearized AVO inversion technique is developed in a Bayesian framework. The objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. Distributions for other elastic parameters can also be assessed, for example acoustic impedance, shear impedance and P-wave to S-wave velocity ratio. The inversion algorithm is based on the convolutional model and a linearized weak contrast approximation of the Zoeppritz equation. The solution is represented by a Gaussian posterior distribution with explicit expressions for the posterior expectation and covariance, hence exact prediction intervals for the inverted parameters can be computed under the specified model. The explicit analytical form of the posterior distribution provides a computationally fast inversion method. Tests on synthetic data show that all inverted parameters were almost perfectly retrieved when the noise approached zero. With realistic noise levels, acoustic impedance was the best determined parameter, while the inversion provided practically no information about the density. The inversion algorithm has also been tested on a real 3-D dataset from the Sleipner Field. The results show good agreement with well logs but the uncertainty is high. The stochastic model includes uncertainties of both the elastic parameters, the wavelet and the seismic and well log data. The posterior distribution is explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The inversion algorithm has been tested on a seismic line from the Heidrun Field with two wells located on the line. The uncertainty of the estimated wavelet is low. In the Heidrun examples the effect of including uncertainty of the wavelet and the noise level was marginal with respect to the AVO inversion results. We have developed a 3-D linearized AVO inversion method with spatially coupled model parameters where the objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S

  4. Applications of seismic damage hazard analysis for the qualification of existing nuclear and offshore facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazzurro, P.; Manfredini, G.M.; Diaz Molina, I.

    1995-01-01

    The Seismic Damage Hazard Analysis (SDHA) is a methodology which couples conventional Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) and non-linear response analysis to seismic loadings. This is a powerful tool in the retrofit process: SDHA permits the direct computation of the probability of occurrence of damage and, eventually, collapse of existing and upgraded structural systems. The SDHA methodology is a significant step towards a better understanding and quantification of structural seismic risk. SDHA incorporates and explicitly accounts for seismic load variability, seismic damage potential variability and structural resistance uncertainty. In addition, SDHA makes available a sound strategy to perform non-linear dynamic analyses. A limited number of non-linear dynamic analyses is sufficient to obtain estimates of damage and its probability of occurrence. The basic concepts of the SDHA methodology are briefly reviewed. Illustrative examples are presented, regarding a power house structure, a tubular structure and seabed slope stability problem. (author)

  5. Estimating of seismic return periods in Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores R, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    The study of seismic risk in the site of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant and surroundings was made considering the different periods of seismic return and the probability of occurrence in distinct time intervals (50, 75, 100, 125, 150 years) starting with the distribution of first type of extreme values of Gumbel (G1), the value used for the assessment of lifetime of lump was 50 years, and the rest of the periods are used to evaluate temporary nuclear cemeteries, it is to say for reducing the radioactivity of burned fuel assemblies. The seismic data belongs to the seismicity catalog (1920-1982) elaborated around the site, which average magnitude was 5 in the Richter Scale and are considered as shallow and are located in the Continental crust of North American shelf, and are induced by the pressure of the cocos shelf, being 36 % of the seismic movements of intermediate value and two seismic movements of deep value. (Author)

  6. Seismic assessment and performance of nonstructural components affected by structural modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hur, Jieun; Althoff, Eric; Sezen, Halil; Denning, Richard; Aldemir, Tunc [Ohio State University, Columbus (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) requires a large number of simulations to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of structural and nonstructural components in nuclear power plants. The effect of structural modeling and analysis assumptions on dynamic analysis of 3D and simplified 2D stick models of auxiliary buildings and the attached nonstructural components is investigated. Dynamic characteristics and seismic performance of building models are also evaluated, as well as the computational accuracy of the models. The presented results provide a better understanding of the dynamic behavior and seismic performance of auxiliary buildings. The results also help to quantify the impact of uncertainties associated with modeling and analysis of simplified numerical models of structural and nonstructural components subjected to seismic shaking on the predicted seismic failure probabilities of these systems.

  7. Seismic wave generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devaure, Bernard.

    1982-01-01

    This invention concerns a device for simulating earth tremors. This device includes a seismic wave generator formed of a cylinder, one end of which is closed by one of the walls of a cell containing a soil, the other end being closed by a wall on which are fixed pyrotechnic devices generating shock waves inside the cylinder. These waves are transmitted from the cylinder to the cell through openings made in the cell wall. This device also includes a mechanical device acting as low-pass filter, located inside the cylinder and close to the cell wall [fr

  8. Seismic Prediction While Drilling (SPWD): Seismic exploration ahead of the drill bit using phased array sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaksch, Katrin; Giese, Rüdiger; Kopf, Matthias

    2010-05-01

    In the case of drilling for deep reservoirs previous exploration is indispensable. In recent years the focus shifted more on geological structures like small layers or hydrothermal fault systems. Beside 2D- or 3D-seismics from the surface and seismic measurements like Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) or Seismic While Drilling (SWD) within a borehole these methods cannot always resolute this structures. The resolution is worsen the deeper and smaller the sought-after structures are. So, potential horizons like small layers in oil exploration or fault zones usable for geothermal energy production could be failed or not identified while drilling. The application of a device to explore the geology with a high resolution ahead of the drill bit in direction of drilling would be of high importance. Such a device would allow adjusting the drilling path according to the real geology and would minimize the risk of discovery and hence the costs for drilling. Within the project SPWD a device for seismic exploration ahead of the drill bit will be developed. This device should allow the seismic exploration to predict areas about 50 to 100 meters ahead of the drill bit with a resolution of one meter. At the GFZ a first prototype consisting of different units for seismic sources, receivers and data loggers has been designed and manufactured. As seismic sources four standard magnetostrictive actuators and as receivers four 3-component-geophones are used. Every unit, actuator or geophone, can be rotated in steps of 15° around the longitudinal axis of the prototype to test different measurement configurations. The SPWD prototype emits signal frequencies of about 500 up to 5000 Hz which are significant higher than in VSP and SWD. An increased radiation of seismic wave energy in the direction of the borehole axis allows the view in areas to be drilled. Therefore, every actuator must be controlled independently of each other regarding to amplitude and phase of the source signal to

  9. Mine-induced seismicity at East-Rand proprietary mines

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Milev, AM

    1995-09-01

    Full Text Available Mining results in seismic activity of varying intensity, from small micro seismic events to larger seismic events, often associated with significant seismic induced damages. This work deals with the understanding of the present seismicity...

  10. Seismic design considerations for nuclear fuel cycle facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soni, R.S.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Venkat Raj, V.

    2001-01-01

    During the last few decades, there have been considerable advances in the field of a seismic design of nuclear structures and components housed inside a Nuclear power Plant (NPP). The seismic design and qualification of theses systems and components are carried out through the use of well proven and established theoretical as well as experimental means. Many of the related research works pertaining to these methods are available in the published literature, codes, guides etc. Contrary to this, there is very little information available with regards to the seismic design aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle facilities. This is probably on account of the little importance attached to these facilities from the point of view of seismic loading. In reality, some of these facilities handle a large inventory of radioactive materials and, therefore, these facilities must survive during a seismic event without giving rise to any sort of undue radiological risk to the plant personnel and the public at large. Presented herein in this paper are the seismic design considerations which are adopted for the design of nuclear fuel cycle facilities in India. (author)

  11. Seismic analysis response factors and design margins of piping systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shieh, L.C.; Tsai, N.C.; Yang, M.S.; Wong, W.L.

    1985-01-01

    The objective of the simplified methods project of the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program is to develop a simplified seismic risk methodology for general use. The goal is to reduce seismic PRA costs to roughly 60 man-months over a 6 to 8 month period, without compromising the quality of the product. To achieve the goal, it is necessary to simplify the calculational procedure of the seismic response. The response factor approach serves this purpose. The response factor relates the median level response to the design data. Through a literature survey, we identified the various seismic analysis methods adopted in the U.S. nuclear industry for the piping system. A series of seismic response calculations was performed. The response factors and their variabilities for each method of analysis were computed. A sensitivity study of the effect of piping damping, in-structure response spectra envelop method, and analysis method was conducted. In addition, design margins, which relate the best-estimate response to the design data, are also presented

  12. Weak localization of seismic waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larose, E.; Margerin, L.; Tiggelen, B.A. van; Campillo, M.

    2004-01-01

    We report the observation of weak localization of seismic waves in a natural environment. It emerges as a doubling of the seismic energy around the source within a spot of the width of a wavelength, which is several tens of meters in our case. The characteristic time for its onset is the scattering mean-free time that quantifies the internal heterogeneity

  13. DRY TRANSFER FACILITY SEISMIC ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EARNEST, S.; KO, H.; DOCKERY, W.; PERNISI, R.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this calculation is to perform a dynamic and static analysis on the Dry Transfer Facility, and to determine the response spectra seismic forces for the design basis ground motions. The resulting seismic forces and accelerations will be used in a subsequent calculation to complete preliminary design of the concrete shear walls, diaphragms, and basemat

  14. Advances in Rotational Seismic Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pierson, Robert [Applied Technology Associates, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Laughlin, Darren [Applied Technology Associates, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brune, Robert [Applied Technology Associates, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-10-19

    Rotational motion is increasingly understood to be a significant part of seismic wave motion. Rotations can be important in earthquake strong motion and in Induced Seismicity Monitoring. Rotational seismic data can also enable shear selectivity and improve wavefield sampling for vertical geophones in 3D surveys, among other applications. However, sensor technology has been a limiting factor to date. The US Department of Energy (DOE) and Applied Technology Associates (ATA) are funding a multi-year project that is now entering Phase 2 to develop and deploy a new generation of rotational sensors for validation of rotational seismic applications. Initial focus is on induced seismicity monitoring, particularly for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) with fracturing. The sensors employ Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) principles with broadband response, improved noise floors, robustness, and repeatability. This paper presents a summary of Phase 1 results and Phase 2 status.

  15. Seismic isolation in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skinner, R.I.; Robinson, W.H.; McVerry, G.H.

    1989-01-01

    Bridges, buildings, and industrial equipment can be given increased protection from earthquake damage by limiting the earthquake attack through seismic isolation. A broad summary of the seismic responses of base-isolated structures is of considerable assistance for their preliminary design. Seismic isolation as already used in New Zealand consists of a flexible base or support combined with some form of energy-dissipating device, usually involving the hysteretic working of steel or lead. This paper presents examples of the New Zealand experience, where seismic isolation has been used for 42 bridges, 3 buildings, a tall chimney, and high-voltage capacitor banks. Additional seismic response factors, which may be important for nuclear power plants, are also discussed briefly

  16. Integrated system for seismic evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, J.; Philippacopoulos, A.J.; Miller, C.A.; Costantino, C.J.; Graves, H.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the various features of the seismic module of the CARES system (computer analysis for rapid evaluation of structures). This system was developed to perform rapid evaluations of structural behavior and capability of nuclear power plant facilities. The CARES is structural in a modular format. Each module performs a specific type of analysis i.e., static or dynamic, linear or nonlinear, etc. This paper describes the features of the seismic module in particular. The development of the seismic modules of the CARES system is based on an approach which incorporates major aspects of seismic analysis currently employed by the industry into an integrated system that allows for carrying out interactively computations of structural response to seismic motions. The code operates on a PC computer system and has multi-graphics capabilities

  17. Civil Works Seismic Designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-12-01

    RFS or Regles Fondamentales de Surete (Basic Safety Rules) applicable to certain types of nuclear facilities lay down requirements with which compliance, for the type of facilities and within the scope of application covered by the RFS, is considered to be equivalent to compliance with technical French regulatory practice. The object of the RFS is to take advantage of standardization in the field of safety, while allowing for technical progress in that field. They are designed to enable the operating utility and contractors to know the rules pertaining to various subjects which are considered to be acceptable by the Service Central de Surete des Installations Nucleaires, or the SCSIN (Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Facilities). These RFS should make safety analysis easier and lead to better understanding between experts and individuals concerned with the problems of nuclear safety. The SCSIN reserves the right to modify, when considered necessary, any RFS and specify, if need be, the terms under which a modification is deemed retroactive. This rule defines: - the parameters characterizing the design seismic motions - the calculation methods - the mathematical schematization principles on which calculations are based - the use of the seismic response for the structure checking - the content of the documents to be presented

  18. A seismic recording device

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dixon, R; Kind, A G; Thompson, S R

    1983-06-08

    A method and a device for noting the moment of an explosion on a seismic recording is proposed, in which the moment of the explosion is recorded as a result of a break in an electrical circuit under the effects of the explosive charge used to excite the seismic waves. The electrical circuit being broken is connected to the same energy source as the electric detonator which initiates the explosion, which is attached to a high frequency, alternating current source, where the circuit being broken is either the primary or the secondary winding of a transformer, through which the electric detonator is switched in to the source. The moment the circuit is broken is determined from the ceasation of current in the circuit or by the sharp rise in voltage in the broken sector. The method makes it possible to more precisely fix the moment of the break than the existing methods. When insulated copper wires are used the recording of the time occurs 100 microseconds after the explosion.

  19. Factors affecting seismic response of submarine slopes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Biscontin

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of submerged slopes on the continental shelf to seismic or storm loading has become an important element in the risk assessment for offshore structures and 'local' tsunami hazards worldwide. The geological profile of these slopes typically includes normally consolidated to lightly overconsolidated soft cohesive soils with layer thickness ranging from a few meters to hundreds of meters. The factor of safety obtained from pseudo-static analyses is not always a useful measure for evaluating the slope response, since values less than one do not necessarily imply slope failure with large movements of the soil mass. This paper addresses the relative importance of different factors affecting the response of submerged slopes during seismic loading. The analyses use a dynamic finite element code which includes a constitutive law describing the anisotropic stress-strain-strength behavior of normally consolidated to lightly overconsolidated clays. The model also incorporates anisotropic hardening to describe the effect of different shear strain and stress histories as well as bounding surface principles to provide realistic descriptions of the accumulation of the plastic strains and excess pore pressure during successive loading cycles. The paper presents results from parametric site response analyses on slope geometry and layering, soil material parameters, and input ground motion characteristics. The predicted maximum shear strains, permanent deformations, displacement time histories and maximum excess pore pressure development provide insight of slope performance during a seismic event.

  20. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.

    2016-08-01

    Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part

  1. The SISIFO project: Seismic Safety at High Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peruzza, Laura; Barnaba, Carla; Bragato, Pier Luigi; Dusi, Alberto; Grimaz, Stefano; Malisan, Petra; Saraò, Angela; Mucciarelli, Marco

    2014-05-01

    For many years, the Italian scientific community has faced the problem of the reduction of earthquake risk using innovative educational techniques. Recent earthquakes in Italy and around the world have clearly demonstrated that seismic codes alone are not able to guarantee an effective mitigation of risk. After the tragic events of San Giuliano di Puglia (2002), where an earthquake killed 26 school children, special attention was paid in Italy to the seismic safety of schools, but mainly with respect to structural aspects. Little attention has been devoted to the possible and even significant damage to non-structural elements (collapse of ceilings, tipping of cabinets and shelving, obstruction of escape routes, etc..). Students and teachers trained on these aspects may lead to a very effective preventive vigilance. Since 2002, the project EDURISK (www.edurisk.it) proposed educational tools and training programs for schools, at primary and middle levels. More recently, a nationwide campaign aimed to adults (www.iononrischio.it) was launched with the extensive support of civil protection volounteers. There was a gap for high schools, and Project SISIFO was designed to fill this void and in particular for those schools with technical/scientific curricula. SISIFO (https://sites.google.com/site/ogssisifo/) is a multidisciplinary initiative, aimed at the diffusion of scientific culture for achieving seismic safety in schools, replicable and can be structured in training the next several years. The students, helped by their teachers and by experts from scientific institutions, followed a course on specialized training on earthquake safety. The trial began in North-East Italy, with a combination of hands-on activities for the measurement of earthquakes with low-cost instruments and lectures with experts in various disciplines, accompanied by specifically designed teaching materials, both on paper and digital format. We intend to raise teachers and students knowledge of the

  2. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

  3. seismic-py: Reading seismic data with Python

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available The field of seismic exploration of the Earth has changed
    dramatically over the last half a century. The Society of Exploration
    Geophysicists (SEG has worked to create standards to store the vast
    amounts of seismic data in a way that will be portable across computer
    architectures. However, it has been impossible to predict the needs of the
    immense range of seismic data acquisition systems. As a result, vendors have
    had to bend the rules to accommodate the needs of new instruments and
    experiment types. For low level access to seismic data, there is need for a
    standard open source library to allow access to a wide range of vendor data
    files that can handle all of the variations. A new seismic software package,
    seismic-py, provides an infrastructure for creating and managing drivers for
    each particular format. Drivers can be derived from one of the known formats
    and altered to handle any slight variations. Alternatively drivers can be
    developed from scratch for formats that are very different from any previously
    defined format. Python has been the key to making driver development easy
    and efficient to implement. The goal of seismic-py is to be the base system
    that will power a wide range of experimentation with seismic data and at the
    same time provide clear documentation for the historical record of seismic
    data formats.

  4. Seismic methodology in determining basis earthquake for nuclear installation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ameli Zamani, Sh.

    2008-01-01

    Design basis earthquake ground motions for nuclear installations should be determined to assure the design purpose of reactor safety: that reactors should be built and operated to pose no undue risk to public health and safety from earthquake and other hazards. Regarding the influence of seismic hazard to a site, large numbers of earthquake ground motions can be predicted considering possible variability among the source, path, and site parameters. However, seismic safety design using all predicted ground motions is practically impossible. In the determination of design basis earthquake ground motions it is therefore important to represent the influences of the large numbers of earthquake ground motions derived from the seismic ground motion prediction methods for the surrounding seismic sources. Viewing the relations between current design basis earthquake ground motion determination and modem earthquake ground motion estimation, a development of risk-informed design basis earthquake ground motion methodology is discussed for insight into the on going modernization of the Examination Guide for Seismic Design on NPP

  5. An Investigation of Seismicity for the West Sumatra Region Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syafriani, S.

    2018-04-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the seismicity of the West Sumatra region in the coordinates area of 94° E – 104° E and 2° N - 4° S. Guttenberg-Richer magnitude-frequency relation and seismic risk have been computed. Historical data of earthquakes used from year of 1970 to 2017 with magnitude higher than 4. The study area was divided into 8 sub-regions based on seismotectonic characteristics, plate tectonic and geological models. The determination of seismotectonic characteristics was based on the level of seismic activity in a region (a value) and rock stress condition (b value). High a value was associated with high seismic activity, whereas high b values were associated with low stress rock conditions, and vice versa. Based on the calculation results, a and b values were obtained in the interval of 5.5-11.3 and 0.7-2. The highest b value was obtained in the sub region 5 (Nias islands), while the lowest b value was obtained in sub region 7 (the Mentawai islands). The sub region 7, Mentawai Islands was indicated as the seismic risk potential areas.

  6. Seismic ground motion modelling and damage earthquake scenarios: A bridge between seismologists and seismic engineers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari. F.; . E-mails: Luis.Decanini@uniroma1.it; Fabrizio.Mollaioli@uniroma1.it)

    2002-07-01

    The input for the seismic risk analysis can be expressed with a description of 'roundshaking scenarios', or with probabilistic maps of perhaps relevant parameters. The probabilistic approach, unavoidably based upon rough assumptions and models (e.g. recurrence and attenuation laws), can be misleading, as it cannot take into account, with satisfactory accuracy, some of the most important aspects like rupture process, directivity and site effects. This is evidenced by the comparison of recent recordings with the values predicted by the probabilistic methods. We prefer a scenario-based, deterministic approach in view of the limited seismological data, of the local irregularity of the occurrence of strong earthquakes, and of the multiscale seismicity model, that is capable to reconcile two apparently conflicting ideas: the Characteristic Earthquake concept and the Self Organized Criticality paradigm. Where the numerical modeling is successfully compared with records, the synthetic seismograms permit the microzoning, based upon a set of possible scenario earthquakes. Where no recordings are available the synthetic signals can be used to estimate the ground motion without having to wait for a strong earthquake to occur (pre-disaster microzonation). In both cases the use of modeling is necessary since the so-called local site effects can be strongly dependent upon the properties of the seismic source and can be properly defined only by means of envelopes. The joint use of reliable synthetic signals and observations permits the computation of advanced hazard indicators (e.g. damaging potential) that take into account local soil properties. The envelope of synthetic elastic energy spectra reproduces the distribution of the energy demand in the most relevant frequency range for seismic engineering. The synthetic accelerograms can be fruitfully used for design and strengthening of structures, also when innovative techniques, like seismic isolation, are employed. For these

  7. Integrated system for seismic evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, J.; Philippacopoulos, A.J.; Miller, C.A.; Costantino, C.J.; Graves, H.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the various features of the Seismic Module of the CARES system (Computer Analysis for Rapid Evaluation of Structures). This system was developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to perform rapid evaluations of structural behavior and capability of nuclear power plant facilities. The CARES is structured in a modular format. Each module performs a specific type of analysis i.e., static or dynamic, linear or nonlinear, etc. This paper describes the features of the Seismic Module in particular. The development of the Seismic Module of the CARES system is based on an approach which incorporates all major aspects of seismic analysis currently employed by the industry into an integrated system that allows for carrying out interactively computations of structural response to seismic motions. The code operates on a PC computer system and has multi-graphics capabilities. It has been designed with user friendly features and it allows for interactive manipulation of various analysis phases during the seismic design process. The capabilities of the seismic module include (a) generation of artificial time histories compatible with given design ground response spectra, (b) development of Power Spectral Density (PSD) functions associated with the seismic input, (c) deconvolution analysis using vertically propagating shear waves through a given soil profile, and (d) development of in-structure response spectra or corresponding PSD's. It should be pointed out that these types of analyses can also be performed individually by using available computer codes such as FLUSH, SAP, etc. The uniqueness of the CARES, however, lies on its ability to perform all required phases of the seismic analysis in an integrated manner. 5 refs., 6 figs

  8. Canadian seismic agreement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wetmiller, R.J.; Lyons, J.A.; Shannon, W.E.; Munro, P.S.; Thomas, J.T.; Andrew, M.D.; Lamontagne, M.; Wong, C.; Anglin, F.M.; Plouffe, M.; Lapointe, S.P.; Adams, J.; Drysdale, J.A.

    1990-04-01

    This is the twenty-first progress report under the agreement entitled Canadian Seismic Agreement between the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Canadian Commercial Corporation. Activities undertaken by the Geophysics Division of the Geological Survey of Canada (GD/GSC) during the period from July 01, 1988 to June 30, 1989 and supported in part by the NRC agreement are described below under four headings; Eastern Canada Telemetred Network and local network developments, Datalab developments, strong motion network developments and earthquake activity. In this time period eastern Canada experienced its largest earthquake in over 50 years. This earthquake, which has been christened the Saguenay earthquake, has provided a wealth of new data pertinent to earthquake engineering studies in eastern North America and is the subject of many continuing studies, which are presently being carried out at GD and elsewhere. 41 refs., 21 figs., 7 tabs

  9. Artificial seismic acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felzer, Karen R.; Page, Morgan T.; Michael, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    In their 2013 paper, Bouchon, Durand, Marsan, Karabulut, 3 and Schmittbuhl (BDMKS) claim to see significant accelerating seismicity before M 6.5 interplate mainshocks, but not before intraplate mainshocks, reflecting a preparatory process before large events. We concur with the finding of BDMKS that their interplate dataset has significantly more fore- shocks than their intraplate dataset; however, we disagree that the foreshocks are predictive of large events in particular. Acceleration in stacked foreshock sequences has been seen before and has been explained by the cascade model, in which earthquakes occasionally trigger aftershocks larger than themselves4. In this model, the time lags between the smaller mainshocks and larger aftershocks follow the inverse power law common to all aftershock sequences, creating an apparent acceleration when stacked (see Supplementary Information).

  10. Seismics - Yesterday and today

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, W.

    2014-01-01

    This article published in the Swiss Bulletin for Applied Geology takes a look at technical developments in the field of seismological exploration over the past 25 years. In particular, developments in the information technology area are discussed. Increased data-storage capacities and miniaturization of data-capture systems and sensors are examined. In spite of such developments, the quality of the seismological data acquired is quoted as not showing significantly increased quality. Alternatives to vibration-based seismic exploration are discussed. The challenges faced by near-surface seismology are looked at. Computer-based statistical correction of data and improved resolution are discussed, as is hybrid seismology. Examples are quoted and graphically illustrated. A list of relevant literature completes the article

  11. Seismic and Infrasound Location

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arrowsmith, Stephen J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Begnaud, Michael L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-03-19

    This presentation includes slides on Signal Propagation Through the Earth/Atmosphere Varies at Different Scales; 3D Seismic Models: RSTT; Ray Coverage (Pn); Source-Specific Station Corrections (SSSCs); RSTT Conclusions; SALSA3D (SAndia LoS Alamos) Global 3D Earth Model for Travel Time; Comparison of IDC SSSCs to RSTT Predictions; SALSA3D; Validation and Model Comparison; DSS Lines in the Siberian Platform; DSS Line CRA-4 Comparison; Travel Time Δak135; Travel Time Prediction Uncertainty; SALSA3D Conclusions; Infrasound Data Processing: An example event; Infrasound Data Processing: An example event; Infrasound Location; How does BISL work?; BISL: Application to the 2013 DPRK Test; and BISL: Ongoing Research.

  12. A technical note on seismic microzonation in the central United States

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    mitigation strategies such as seismic risk assessment, emergency response and preparedness, and land-use ... regional mapping, data limitations, generalization, and computer modeling. .... in quantifying liquefaction hazard potential is to.

  13. Seismic retrofitting of Apsara reactor building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, G.R.; Parulekar, Y.M.; Sharma, A.; Rao, K.N.; Narasimhan, Rajiv; Srinivas, K.; Basha, S.M.; Thomas, V.S.; Soma Kumar, K.

    2006-01-01

    Seismic analysis of Apsara Reactor building was carried out and was found not meeting the current seismic requirements. Due to the building not qualifying for seismic loads, a retrofit scheme using elasto-plastic dampers is proposed. Following activities have been performed in this direction: Carried out detailed seismic analysis of Apsara reactor building structure incorporating proposed seismic retrofit. Demonstrating the capability of the retrofitted structure to with stand the earth quake level for Trombay site as per the current standards by analysis and by model studies. Implementation of seismic retrofit program. This paper presents the details of above aspects related to Seismic analysis and retrofitting of Apsara reactor building. (author)

  14. Comparison of seismic isolation concepts for FBR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiojiri, H.; Mazda, T.; Kasai, H.; Kanda, J.N.; Kubo, T.; Madokoro, M.; Shimomura, T.; Nojima, O.

    1989-01-01

    This paper seeks to verify the reliability and effectiveness of seismic isolation for FBR. Some results of the preliminary study of the program are described. Seismic isolation concepts and corresponding seismic isolation devices were selected. Three kinds of seismically-isolated FBR plant concepts were developed by applying promising seismic isolation concepts to the non-isolated FBR plant, and by developing plant component layout plans and building structural designs. Each plant was subjected to seismic response analysis and reduction in the amount of material of components and buildings were estimated for each seismic isolation concepts. Research and development items were evaluated

  15. Seismic efficiency of meteor airbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svetsov, V. V.; Artemieva, N. A.; Shuvalov, V. V.

    2017-08-01

    We present the results of numerical simulation for impacts of relatively small asteroids and ice bodies of 30-100 m in size, decelerated in the atmosphere and exploding before they reach the surface, but still producing seismic effects due to the impact wave reaching the surface. The calculated magnitudes fall within the range of 4 to 6, and average seismic efficiency of these events is 2.5 × 10-5. The results obtained allow the seismic hazard from impacts of cosmic bodies to be estimated.

  16. SEISMIC ANALYSIS FOR PRECLOSURE SAFETY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    E.N. Lindner

    2004-12-03

    The purpose of this seismic preclosure safety analysis is to identify the potential seismically-initiated event sequences associated with preclosure operations of the repository at Yucca Mountain and assign appropriate design bases to provide assurance of achieving the performance objectives specified in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 10 CFR Part 63 for radiological consequences. This seismic preclosure safety analysis is performed in support of the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Project. In more detail, this analysis identifies the systems, structures, and components (SSCs) that are subject to seismic design bases. This analysis assigns one of two design basis ground motion (DBGM) levels, DBGM-1 or DBGM-2, to SSCs important to safety (ITS) that are credited in the prevention or mitigation of seismically-initiated event sequences. An application of seismic margins approach is also demonstrated for SSCs assigned to DBGM-2 by showing a high confidence of a low probability of failure at a higher ground acceleration value, termed a beyond-design basis ground motion (BDBGM) level. The objective of this analysis is to meet the performance requirements of 10 CFR 63.111(a) and 10 CFR 63.111(b) for offsite and worker doses. The results of this calculation are used as inputs to the following: (1) A classification analysis of SSCs ITS by identifying potential seismically-initiated failures (loss of safety function) that could lead to undesired consequences; (2) An assignment of either DBGM-1 or DBGM-2 to each SSC ITS credited in the prevention or mitigation of a seismically-initiated event sequence; and (3) A nuclear safety design basis report that will state the seismic design requirements that are credited in this analysis. The present analysis reflects the design information available as of October 2004 and is considered preliminary. The evolving design of the repository will be re-evaluated periodically to ensure that seismic hazards are properly

  17. SEISMIC ANALYSIS FOR PRECLOSURE SAFETY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    E.N. Lindner

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this seismic preclosure safety analysis is to identify the potential seismically-initiated event sequences associated with preclosure operations of the repository at Yucca Mountain and assign appropriate design bases to provide assurance of achieving the performance objectives specified in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 10 CFR Part 63 for radiological consequences. This seismic preclosure safety analysis is performed in support of the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Project. In more detail, this analysis identifies the systems, structures, and components (SSCs) that are subject to seismic design bases. This analysis assigns one of two design basis ground motion (DBGM) levels, DBGM-1 or DBGM-2, to SSCs important to safety (ITS) that are credited in the prevention or mitigation of seismically-initiated event sequences. An application of seismic margins approach is also demonstrated for SSCs assigned to DBGM-2 by showing a high confidence of a low probability of failure at a higher ground acceleration value, termed a beyond-design basis ground motion (BDBGM) level. The objective of this analysis is to meet the performance requirements of 10 CFR 63.111(a) and 10 CFR 63.111(b) for offsite and worker doses. The results of this calculation are used as inputs to the following: (1) A classification analysis of SSCs ITS by identifying potential seismically-initiated failures (loss of safety function) that could lead to undesired consequences; (2) An assignment of either DBGM-1 or DBGM-2 to each SSC ITS credited in the prevention or mitigation of a seismically-initiated event sequence; and (3) A nuclear safety design basis report that will state the seismic design requirements that are credited in this analysis. The present analysis reflects the design information available as of October 2004 and is considered preliminary. The evolving design of the repository will be re-evaluated periodically to ensure that seismic hazards are properly

  18. Seismic Fragility of the LANL Fire Water Distribution System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greg Mertz

    2007-03-30

    The purpose of this report is to present the results of a site-wide system fragility assessment. This assessment focuses solely on the performance of the water distribution systems that supply Chemical and Metallurgy Research (CMR), Weapons Engineering and Tritium Facility (WETF), Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility (RLWTF), Waste Characterization, Reduction, Repackaging Facility (WCRRF), and Transuranic Waste Inspectable Storage Project (TWISP). The analysis methodology is based on the American Lifelines Alliance seismic fragility formulations for water systems. System fragilities are convolved with the 1995 LANL seismic hazards to develop failure frequencies. Acceptance is determined by comparing the failure frequencies to the DOE-1020 Performance Goals. This study concludes that: (1) If a significant number of existing isolation valves in the water distribution system are closed to dedicate the entire water system to fighting fires in specific nuclear facilities; (2) Then, the water distribution systems for WETF, RLWTF, WCRRF, and TWISP meet the PC-2 performance goal and the water distribution system for CMR is capable of surviving a 0.06g earthquake. A parametric study of the WETF water distribution system demonstrates that: (1) If a significant number of valves in the water distribution system are NOT closed to dedicate the entire water system to fighting fires in WETF; (2) Then, the water distribution system for WETF has an annual probability of failure on the order of 4 x 10{sup -3} that does not meet the PC-2 performance goal. Similar conclusions are expected for CMR, RLWTF, WCRRF, and TWISP. It is important to note that some of the assumptions made in deriving the results should be verified by personnel in the safety-basis office and may need to be incorporated in technical surveillance requirements in the existing authorization basis documentation if credit for availability of fire protection water is taken at the PC-2 level earthquake levels

  19. Seismic Fragility of the LANL Fire Water Distribution System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greg Mertz Jason Cardon Mike Salmon

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to present the results of a site-wide system fragility assessment. This assessment focuses solely on the performance of the water distribution systems that supply Chemical and Metallurgy Research (CMR), Weapons Engineering and Tritium Facility (WETF), Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility (RLWTF), Waste Characterization, Reduction, Repackaging Facility (WCRRF), and Transuranic Waste Inspectable Storage Project (TWISP). The analysis methodology is based on the American Lifelines Alliance seismic fragility formulations for water systems. System fragilities are convolved with the 1995 LANL seismic hazards to develop failure frequencies. Acceptance is determined by comparing the failure frequencies to the DOE-1020 Performance Goals. This study concludes that: (1) If a significant number of existing isolation valves in the water distribution system are closed to dedicate the entire water system to fighting fires in specific nuclear facilities; (2) Then, the water distribution systems for WETF, RLWTF, WCRRF, and TWISP meet the PC-2 performance goal and the water distribution system for CMR is capable of surviving a 0.06g earthquake. A parametric study of the WETF water distribution system demonstrates that: (1) If a significant number of valves in the water distribution system are NOT closed to dedicate the entire water system to fighting fires in WETF; (2) Then, the water distribution system for WETF has an annual probability of failure on the order of 4 x 10 -3 that does not meet the PC-2 performance goal. Similar conclusions are expected for CMR, RLWTF, WCRRF, and TWISP. It is important to note that some of the assumptions made in deriving the results should be verified by personnel in the safety-basis office and may need to be incorporated in technical surveillance requirements in the existing authorization basis documentation if credit for availability of fire protection water is taken at the PC-2 level earthquake levels

  20. Seismic hazard communication in Istanbul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ickert, Johanna

    2015-04-01

    Conflicting societal conceptions of earthquake safety provide challenges but also opportunities for the communication of seismic hazards. This paradox is exemplified in the controversial social reactions to the ongoing 'urban renewal projects' in Istanbul. Seismologists estimate that there is a high probability that a major earthquake will strike Istanbul in the next decade or so. Detailed earthquake risk analysis, and direct experience of the losses suffered during the major earthquakes that struck Turkey in 1999 and 2011, have engendered a broad societal recognition of the need for extensive earthquake preparedness and response planning. However, there has been dissent concerning the democratic legitimation of some of Istanbul's mitigation measures, most notably the implementation of the 'Law for the Regeneration of Areas Under Disaster Risk' (Law 6306, known as the 'disaster law') in May 2012. The strong interconnections between geological 'matters of fact' and societal 'matters of concern' raise fundamental questions for geocommunication on how to deal with this societal complexity, particularly in terms of maintaining trust in the geoscientist. There is a growing recognition among geoscientists that achieving disaster resilience in Istanbul is not solely the domain of 'earthquake experts' but rather requires a shared societal responsibility. However, the question arises as to how geocommunication can be designed to respond to this increased demand for interdisciplinarity and civil participation. This research will confront this question, exploring ways to combine qualitative and quantitative analyses, values and preferred norms with facts and observations, and be organised around an interactive web-based documentary platform that integrates multiple knowledge bases and seeks to help connect different communication cultures.

  1. Building an educational seismic network in Romanian schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaharia, Bogdan; Tataru, Dragos; Grecu, Bogdan; Ionescu, Constantin; Bican-Brisan, Nicoleta; Neagoe, Cristian

    2014-05-01

    Understanding the earthquake phenomena and their effects is an important step toward the education of population and aims to raise the awareness about the earthquake risk and possible mitigation actions. In this sense, The Romanian Educational Seismic Network project represents an efficient communication tool, allowing teaching and learning about the earthquakes and seismic wave impact through experimental practices and educational activities. The seismic network consist of nine SEP seismometers installed in high-schools from the most important seismic areas (Vrancea, Banat, Făgăraş, Dobrogea), vulnerable cities (Bucharest, Iasi) or high populated places (Cluj, Sibiu, Timisoara, Zalău) and is coordinated by the National Institute of Earth Physics from Bucharest. Once installed, the seismic network is the starting point of activities for students through an e-learning platform. Some objectives are aimed: - To train students and teachers how to make analysis and interpretation of seismological data; - To make science more interesting for students; - To improve the participation rates in physical sciences for students; - To raise awareness of geoscience as a scientific discipline for pre-university students; - To promote the installation and effective use of educational seismographs and seismic data; - To reinforce and develop relationships between participating schools and research institutes; - To create an earthquake database this will be used by students and teachers for educational purposes. Different types of practical activities using educational seismometer, designed by researchers for students, are described in educational materials and in the web platform project. Also we encourage the teachers from the participating schools to share their experiences and produce new didactic tools for the classroom. This collaborative work could illustrate the conjugated efforts of researchers and teachers for a better education and awareness of the risk culture

  2. A basis for standardized seismic design (SSD) for nuclear power plants/critical facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Hara, T.F.; Jacobson, J.P.; Bellini, F.X.

    1991-01-01

    US Nuclear Power Plants (NPP's) are designed, engineered and constructed to stringent standards. Their seismic adequacy is assured by compliance with regulatory standards and demonstrated by both probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and seismic margin studies. However, present seismic siting criteria requires improvement. Proposed changes to siting criteria discussed here will provide a predictable licensing process and a stable regulatory environment. Two recent state-of-the-art studies evaluate the seismic design for all eastern US (EUS) NPP'S: a Lawrence Livermore National Labs study (LLNL, 1989) funded by the NRC and similar research by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI, 1989) supported by the utilities. Both confirm that Appendix A 10CFR Part 100 has not provided consistent seismic design levels for all sites. Standardized Seismic Design (SSD) uses a probabilistic framework to accommodate alternative deterministic interpretations. It uses seismic hazard input from EPRI or LLNL to produce consistent bases for future seismic design. SSD combines deterministic and probabilistic insights to provide a comprehensive approach for determining a future site's acceptable seismic design basis

  3. Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

    2010-06-01

    This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

  4. Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCann, W R; Nishenko, S P; Sykes, L R; Krause, J

    1979-01-01

    The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long-and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps. The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best. The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning priorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.

  5. Post-seismic relaxation from geodetic and seismic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail V. Rodkin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We have examined the aftershock sequence and the post-seismic deformation process of the Parkfield earthquake (2004, M = 6, California, USA source area using GPS data. This event was chosen because of the possibility of joint analysis of data from the rather dense local GPS network (from SOPAC Internet archive and of the availability of the rather detailed aftershock sequence data (http://www.ncedc.org/ncedc/catalog-search.html. The relaxation process of post-seismic deformation prolongs about the same 400 days as the seismic aftershock process does. Thus, the aftershock process and the relaxation process in deformation could be the different sides of the same process. It should be noted that the ratio of the released seismic energy and of the GPS obtained deformation is quite different for the main shock and for the aftershock stage. The ratio of the released seismic energy to the deformation value decreases essentially for the post-shock process. The similar change in the seismic energy/deformation value ratio is valid in a few other strong earthquakes. Thus, this decrease seems typical of aftershock sequences testifying for decrease of ratio of elastic to inelastic deformation in the process of post-shock relaxation when the source area appears to be mostly fractured after the main shock occurs, but the healing process had no yet sufficient time to develop.

  6. Seismic Evaluation of A Historical Structure In Kastamonu - Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pınar, USTA; Işıl ÇARHOĞLU, Asuman; EVCİ, Ahmet

    2018-01-01

    The Kastomonu province is a seismically active zone. the city has many historical buildings made of stone-masonry. In case of any probable future earthquakes, existing buildings may suffer substantial or heavy damages. In the present study, one of the historical traditional house located in Kastamonu were structurally investigated through probabilistic seismic risk assessment methodology. In the study, the building was modeled by using the Finite Element Modeling (FEM) software, SAP2000. Time history analyses were carried out using 10 different ground motion data on the FEM models. Displacements were interpreted, and the results were displayed graphically and discussed.

  7. Subsystem response review. Seismic safety margins research program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, R.P.; Campbell, R.D.; Wesley, D.A.; Kamil, H.; Gantayat, A.; Vasudevan, R.

    1981-07-01

    A study was conducted to document the state of the art in seismic qualification of nuclear power plant components and subsystems by analysis and testing and to identify the sources and magnitude of the uncertainties associated with analysis and testing methods. The uncertainties are defined in probabilistic terms for use in probabilistic seismic risk studies. Recommendations are made for the most appropriate subsystem response analysis methods to minimize response uncertainties. Additional studies, to further quantify testing uncertainties, are identified. Although the general effect of non-linearities on subsystem response is discussed, recommendations and conclusions are based principally on linear elastic analysis and testing models. (author)

  8. Seismic fragility of reinforced concrete structures in nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gergely, P.

    1985-01-01

    The failure and fragility analyses of reinforced concrete structures and elements in nuclear reactor facilities within the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory are evaluated. Uncertainties in material modeling, behavior of low shear walls, and seismic risk assessment for nonlinear response receive special attention. Problems with ductility-based spectral deamplification and prediction of the stiffness of reinforced concrete walls at low stress levels are examined. It is recommended to use relatively low damping values in connection with ductility-based response reductions. The study of static nonlinear force-deflection curves is advocated for better nonlinear dynamic response predictions

  9. Communication during an evolving seismic sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mucciarelli, M.; Camassi, R.

    2012-04-01

    Since October 2011 a seismic swarm is affecting the Pollino mountain range, southern Italy. At the abstract submission date the sequence is still ongoing, with more than 500 events with M>1, at least 40 well perceived by the population and a maximum magnitude at 3.6. The area was hit by a magnitude 5.7 event in 1998 that caused one dead, some injured and widespread damage in at least six municipalities. The population main fear is that a large event could follow the seismic swarm as it occurred at L'Aquila in 2009. Among the initiatives taken by Civil Protection at national and regional level, it was decided to try to implement at local scale two communication projects that were thought for "peace time" and not for dissemination during a seismic crisis: the "Terremoto-Io non rischio" project for general public and the "EDURISK" project for school children. The main lesson learned during the first months of the activity are: 1) it is possible to take advantage of the increased awareness and risk perception from the population to attract more citizen toward topics that could go unnoticed otherwise; 2) the Civil Protection volunteers could be a very effective mean to reach a large amount of the population, provided they are carefully trained especially when children are involved; 3) the expectations about earthquake prediction raised from media without any scientific support proved to be the most difficult to be tackled: to overcome this bias risk education in "peace time" is absolutely essential; 4) door-to-door communication is perceived much better than official press release on newspapers; 5) training of volunteers must be limited to a few basic information, with special attention to the local context.

  10. Seismic link at plate boundary

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    process constrain the seismic hazard assessment. Some frequent issues .... to obtain information on the causality between .... 2004), and low frequency deep triggering. (Miyazawa .... can trigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes; Science 306.

  11. Worldwide Marine Seismic Reflection Profiles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NGDC maintains a large volume of both Analog and Digital seismic reflection data. Currently only a limited number of lines are available online. Digital data include...

  12. Summary report of seismic PSA of BWR model plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-05-01

    This report presents a seismic PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) methodology developed at the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) for evaluating risks of nuclear power plants (NPPs) and the results from an application of the methodology to a BWR plant in Japan, which is termed Model Plant'. The seismic PSA procedures developed at JAERI are to evaluate core damage frequency (CDF) and have the following four steps: (1) evaluation of seismic hazard, (2) evaluation of realistic response, (3) evaluation of component capacities and failure probabilities, and (4) evaluation of conditional probability of system failure and CDF. Although these procedures are based on the methodologies established and used in the United States, they include several unique features: (1) seismic hazard analysis is performed with use of available knowledge and database on seismological conditions in Japan; (2) response evaluation is performed with a response factor method which is cost effective and associated uncertainties can be reduced with use of modern methods of design calculations; (3) capacity evaluation is performed with use of test results available in Japan in combination with design information and generic capacity data in the U.S.A.; (4) systems reliability analysis, performed with use of the computer code SECOM-2 developed at JAERI, includes identification of dominant accident sequences, importance analysis of components and systems as well as the CDF evaluation with consideration of the effect of correlation of failures by a newly developed method based on the Monte Carlo method. The effect of correlation has been recognized as an important issue in seismic PSAs. The procedures was used to perform a seismic PSA of a 1100 MWe BWR plant. Results are shown as well as the insights derived and future research needs identified in this seismic PSA. (J.P.N.)

  13. A New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z. K.

    2017-12-01

    We are developing a new seismic hazard model for Mainland China by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data, and derive a strain rate model based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones. For each zone, a tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) magnitude-frequency distribution is used to model the seismic activity rates. The a- and b-values of the TGR distribution are calculated using observed earthquake data, while the corner magnitude is constrained independently using the seismic moment rate inferred from the geodetically-based strain rate model. Small and medium sized earthquakes are distributed within the source zones following the location and magnitude patterns of historical earthquakes. Some of the larger earthquakes are distributed onto active faults, based on their geological characteristics such as slip rate, fault length, down-dip width, and various paleoseismic data. The remaining larger earthquakes are then placed into the background. A new set of magnitude-rupture scaling relationships is developed based on earthquake data from China and vicinity. We evaluate and select appropriate ground motion prediction equations by comparing them with observed ground motion data and performing residual analysis. To implement the modeling workflow, we develop a tool that builds upon the functionalities of GEM's Hazard Modeler's Toolkit. The GEM OpenQuake software is used to calculate seismic hazard at various ground motion periods and various return periods. To account for site amplification, we construct a site condition map based on geology. The resulting new seismic hazard maps can be used for seismic risk analysis and management.

  14. Seismic Hazard Management in Mexico City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintergerst, L.

    2007-05-01

    Mexico City is one of the largest cities in the world. More than 8.5 million residents and 4.5 million floating population are in the city itself, but with the surrounding suburbs the number of people that could be affected by natural and man-made hazards rises to approximately 20 million. The main risk to the city as a whole is a large magnitude earthquake. Since there is reason to prepare for a credible seismic scenario of Mw = 8.2, which would exceed the damages caused during the 1985 earthquake (Mw = 8.1), we founded the Metropolitan Geologic Service (MGS) in 1998. The MGS has developed geologic and seismic hazard maps for the city (http:www.proteccioncivil.df.gob.mx). The maps include three separate risk maps for low height (3 stories), medium height (10 stories) and tall buildings (10 stories). The maps were prepared by using the maximum horizontal accelerations documented during the 1985 earthquake, and wave propagation modeling for buildings of different resonant periods (T = 0.0, 1.0 and 2.0 sec). In all cases, the risk zones were adjusted to include documented damage during the 1957, 1979 and 1985 earthquakes. All three maps show a high risk zone in the north-central portion of the city, elongated in a N-S direction, which corresponds with a narrow graben where the thickness of alluvial sediments is particularly large, and where wave amplification is accentuated. Preparation of these maps, and others used for planning, has been facilitated by the ongoing elaboration of a Dynamic Geographical Information System, which is based on geo-scientific information, includes all types of risks, and incorporates vulnerability models. From the risk management standpoint, we have elaborated the Permanent Contingency Plan for Mexico City, which in its Earthquakes chapter includes plans for coordination and for organizing attention to the population in the event of a seismic disaster. This Permanent Plan follows the philosophy of Descartes' Method, has 11 processes (6

  15. Seismic Applications of Energy Dampers

    OpenAIRE

    Shambhu Sinha

    2004-01-01

    Damping devices based on the operating principle of high velocity fluid flow through orifices have found numerous applications in the shock and vibration isolation of aerospace and defence systems. The study aims to investigate the feasibility of using energy dissipating fluid viscous dampers in structures to protect against seismic loads and to prove analytically and  experimentally that fluid viscous dampers can improve the seismic capacity of a structure by reducing damage and displacement...

  16. Position paper: Seismic design criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farnworth, S.K.

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to document the seismic design criteria to be used on the Title 11 design of the underground double-shell waste storage tanks and appurtenant facilities of the Multi-Function Waste Tank Facility (MWTF) project, and to provide the history and methodologies for determining the recommended Design Basis Earthquake (DBE) Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) anchors for site-specific seismic response spectra curves. Response spectra curves for use in design are provided in Appendix A

  17. Visualization of volumetric seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickermann, Dela; Böttinger, Michael; Ashfaq Ahmed, Khawar; Gajewski, Dirk

    2015-04-01

    Mostly driven by demands of high quality subsurface imaging, highly specialized tools and methods have been developed to support the processing, visualization and interpretation of seismic data. 3D seismic data acquisition and 4D time-lapse seismic monitoring are well-established techniques in academia and industry, producing large amounts of data to be processed, visualized and interpreted. In this context, interactive 3D visualization methods proved to be valuable for the analysis of 3D seismic data cubes - especially for sedimentary environments with continuous horizons. In crystalline and hard rock environments, where hydraulic stimulation techniques may be applied to produce geothermal energy, interpretation of the seismic data is a more challenging problem. Instead of continuous reflection horizons, the imaging targets are often steep dipping faults, causing a lot of diffractions. Without further preprocessing these geological structures are often hidden behind the noise in the data. In this PICO presentation we will present a workflow consisting of data processing steps, which enhance the signal-to-noise ratio, followed by a visualization step based on the use the commercially available general purpose 3D visualization system Avizo. Specifically, we have used Avizo Earth, an extension to Avizo, which supports the import of seismic data in SEG-Y format and offers easy access to state-of-the-art 3D visualization methods at interactive frame rates, even for large seismic data cubes. In seismic interpretation using visualization, interactivity is a key requirement for understanding complex 3D structures. In order to enable an easy communication of the insights gained during the interactive visualization process, animations of the visualized data were created which support the spatial understanding of the data.

  18. Russian regulatory approaches to seismic design and seismic analysis of NPP piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaliberda, Y.V.

    2003-01-01

    The paper presents an overview of Russian regulatory approaches to seismic design and seismic analysis of NPP piping. The paper is focused on categorization and seismic analysis of nuclear power plant items (piping, equipment, supports, valves, but not building structures). The paper outlines the current seismic recommendations, corresponding methods with the examples of calculation models. The paper considers calculation results of the mechanisms of dynamic behavior and the problems of developing a rational and economical approaches to seismic design and seismic protection. (author)

  19. Recent Vs. Historical Seismicity Analysis For Banat Seismic Region (Western Part Of Romania)

    OpenAIRE

    Oros Eugen; Diaconescu Mihai

    2015-01-01

    The present day seismic activity from a region reflects the active tectonics and can confirm the seismic potential of the seismogenic sources as they are modelled using the historical seismicity. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the last decade seismicity recorded in the Banat Seismic Region (western part of Romania) and the historical seismicity of the region (Mw≥4.0). Four significant earthquake sequences have been recently localized in the region, three of them nearby the city of...

  20. Cooperative New Madrid seismic network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, R.B.; Johnston, A.C.

    1990-01-01

    The development and installation of components of a U.S. National Seismic Network (USNSN) in the eastern United States provides the basis for long term monitoring of eastern earthquakes. While the broad geographical extent of this network provides a uniform monitoring threshold for the purpose of identifying and locating earthquakes and while it will provide excellent data for defining some seismic source parameters for larger earthquakes through the use of waveform modeling techniques, such as depth and focal mechanism, by itself it will not be able to define the scaling of high frequency ground motions since it will not focus on any of the major seismic zones in the eastern U.S. Realizing this need and making use of a one time availability of funds for studying New Madrid earthquakes, Saint Louis University and Memphis State University successfully competed for funding in a special USGS RFP for New Madrid studies. The purpose of the proposal is to upgrade the present seismic networks run by these institutions in order to focus on defining the seismotectonics and ground motion scaling in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The proposed network is designed both to complement the U.S. National Seismic Network and to make use of the capabilities of the communication links of that network

  1. Toward predicting clay landslide with ambient seismic noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larose, E. F.; Mainsant, G.; Carriere, S.; Chambon, G.; Michoud, C.; Jongmans, D.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2013-12-01

    Clay-rich pose critical problems in risk management worldwide. The most widely proposed mechanism leading to such flow-like movements is the increase in water pore pressure in the sliding mass, generating partial or complete liquefaction. This solid-to-liquid transition results in a dramatic reduction of mechanical rigidity, which could be detected by monitoring shear wave velocity variations, The ambient seismic noise correlation technique has been applied to measure the variation in the seismic surface wave velocity in the Pont Bourquin landslide (Swiss Alps). This small but active composite earthslide-earthflow was equipped with continuously recording seismic sensors during spring and summer 2010, and then again from fall 2011 on. An earthslide of a few thousand cubic meters was triggered in mid-August 2010, after a rainy period. This article shows that the seismic velocity of the sliding material, measured from daily noise correlograms, decreased continuously and rapidly for several days prior to the catastrophic event. From a spectral analysis of the velocity decrease, it was possible to determine the location of the change at the base of the sliding layer. These results are confirmed by analogous small-scale experiments in the laboratory. These results demonstrate that ambient seismic noise can be used to detect rigidity variations before failure and could potentially be used to predict landslides.

  2. Seismic response of rock joints and jointed rock mass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, A.; Hsiung, S.M.; Chowdhury, A.H.

    1996-06-01

    Long-term stability of emplacement drifts and potential near-field fluid flow resulting from coupled effects are among the concerns for safe disposal of high-level nuclear waste (HLW). A number of factors can induce drift instability or change the near-field flow patterns. Repetitive seismic loads from earthquakes and thermal loads generated by the decay of emplaced waste are two significant factors. One of two key technical uncertainties (KTU) that can potentially pose a high risk of noncompliance with the performance objectives of 10 CFR Part 60 is the prediction of thermal-mechanical (including repetitive seismic load) effects on stability of emplacement drifts and the engineered barrier system. The second KTU of concern is the prediction of thermal-mechanical-hydrological (including repetitive seismic load) effects on the host rock surrounding the engineered barrier system. The Rock Mechanics research project being conducted at the Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) is intended to address certain specific technical issues associated with these two KTUs. This research project has two major components: (i) seismic response of rock joints and a jointed rock mass and (ii) coupled thermal-mechanical-hydrological (TMH) response of a jointed rock mass surrounding the engineered barrier system (EBS). This final report summarizes the research activities concerned with the repetitive seismic load aspect of both these KTUs

  3. Multicomponent seismic applications in coalbed methane development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawton, D.; Trend, S. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics

    2004-07-01

    Seismic applications for coalbed methane (CBM) development are used to address the following challenges: lateral continuity of coal zones; vertical continuity of coal seams; permeability of cleats and fractures; coal quality and gas content; wet versus dry coal zones; and, monitoring storage of greenhouse gases. This paper presented a brief description of existing seismic programs, including 2-D and 3-D surface seismic surveys; multicomponent seismic surveys; vertical seismic profiles; cross-well seismic surveys; and, time-lapse seismic surveys. A comparative evaluation of their use in the Horseshoe Canyon Formation and the Ardley Formation was presented. The study showed that variations in reservoir properties resulting from gas production and dewatering can be effectively imaged using seismic surveys. Seismic surveys are useful in reservoir management, monitoring sweep efficiency during enhanced natural gas from coal (NGC) production, monitoring disposal of produced water and verifying storage of carbon dioxide for carbon credits. tabs., figs.

  4. Integrated structural design of nuclear power plants for high seismic areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rieck, P.J.

    1979-01-01

    A design approach which structurally interconnects NPP buildings to be located in high seismic areas is described. The design evolution of a typical 600 MWe steel cylindrical containment PWR is described as the plant is structurally upgraded for higher seismic requirements, while maintaining the original plant layout. The plant design is presented as having separate reactor building and auxiliary structures for a low seismic area (0.20 g) and is structurally combined at the foundation for location in a higher seismic area (0.30 g). The evolution is completed by a fully integrated design which structurally connects the reactor building and auxiliary structures at superstructure elevations as well as foundation levels for location in very severe seismic risk areas (0.50 g). (orig.)

  5. Seismic evaluation of commercial plutonium fabrication plants in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernreuter, D.L.; Coats, D.W.; Murray, R.C.; Tokarz, F.J.

    1979-01-01

    This report is an overview of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's seismic assessment of six commercial plutonium fabrication plants licensed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) before September 2, 1971. The seismic assessment generally has three parts: (1) documentation of the structural condition of each facility and its critical equipment; (2) characterization of the seismic hazard (i.e., determination of peak ground acceleration vs return period for each site); and (3) evaluation of seismic capacity to determine ground motion levels at which critical structures and equipment fail. The failure evaluation used structural capacities of median-centered strength characteristics of the as-built configurations from (1) and seismic hazard input from (2). Results of the assessment were partial input for an overall natural risks study by the NRC

  6. Seismic failure modes and seismic safety of Hardfill dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Xiong

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Based on microscopic damage theory and the finite element method, and using the Weibull distribution to characterize the random distribution of the mechanical properties of materials, the seismic response of a typical Hardfill dam was analyzed through numerical simulation during the earthquakes with intensities of 8 degrees and even greater. The seismic failure modes and failure mechanism of the dam were explored as well. Numerical results show that the Hardfill dam remains at a low stress level and undamaged or slightly damaged during an earthquake with an intensity of 8 degrees. During overload earthquakes, tensile cracks occur at the dam surfaces and extend to inside the dam body, and the upstream dam body experiences more serious damage than the downstream dam body. Therefore, under the seismic conditions, the failure pattern of the Hardfill dam is the tensile fracture of the upstream regions and the dam toe. Compared with traditional gravity dams, Hardfill dams have better seismic performance and greater seismic safety.

  7. Seismic analysis for the ALMR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tajirian, F.F.

    1992-01-01

    The Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) design uses seismic isolation as a cost effective approach for simplifying seismic design of the reactor module, and for enhancing margins to handle beyond design basis earthquakes (BDBE). A comprehensive seismic analysis plan has been developed to confirm the adequacy of the design and to support regulatory licensing activities. In this plan state-of-the-art computer programs are used to evaluate the system response of the ALMR. Several factors that affect seismic response will be investigated. These include variability in the input earthquake mechanism, soil-structure interaction effects, and nonlinear response of the isolators. This paper reviews the type of analyses that are planned, and discuses the approach that will be used for validating the specific features of computer programs that are required in the analysis of isolated structures. To date, different linear and nonlinear seismic analyses have been completed. The results of recently completed linear analyses have been summarized elsewhere. The findings of three-dimensional seismic nonlinear analyses are presented in this paper. These analyses were performed to evaluate the effect of changes of isolator horizontal stiffness with horizontal displacement on overall response, to develop an approach for representing BDBE events with return periods exceeding 10,000 years, and to assess margins in the design for BDBEs. From the results of these analyses and bearing test data, it can be concluded that a properly designed and constructed seismic isolation system can accommodate displacements several times the design safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) for the ALMR. (author)

  8. Motorized Activity on Legacy Seismic Lines: A Predictive Modeling Approach to Prioritize Restoration Efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornseth, M L; Pigeon, K E; MacNearney, D; Larsen, T A; Stenhouse, G; Cranston, J; Finnegan, L

    2018-05-11

    Natural regeneration of seismic lines, cleared for hydrocarbon exploration, is slow and often hindered by vegetation damage, soil compaction, and motorized human activity. There is an extensive network of seismic lines in western Canada which is known to impact forest ecosystems, and seismic lines have been linked to declines in woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). Seismic line restoration is costly, but necessary for caribou conservation to reduce cumulative disturbance. Understanding where motorized activity may be impeding regeneration of seismic lines will aid in prioritizing restoration. Our study area in west-central Alberta, encompassed five caribou ranges where restoration is required under federal species at risk recovery strategies, hence prioritizing seismic lines for restoration is of immediate conservation value. To understand patterns of motorized activity on seismic lines, we evaluated five a priori hypotheses using a predictive modeling framework and Geographic Information System variables across three landscapes in the foothills and northern boreal regions of Alberta. In the northern boreal landscape, motorized activity was most common in dry areas with a large industrial footprint. In highly disturbed areas of the foothills, motorized activity on seismic lines increased with low vegetation heights, relatively dry soils, and further from forest cutblocks, while in less disturbed areas of the foothills, motorized activity on seismic lines decreased proportional to seismic line density, slope steepness, and white-tailed deer abundance, and increased proportional with distance to roads. We generated predictive maps of high motorized activity, identifying 21,777 km of seismic lines where active restoration could expedite forest regeneration.

  9. Real Time Seismic Prediction while Drilling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, F. R.; Bohlen, T.; Edelmann, T.; Kassel, A.; Heim, A.; Gehring, M.; Lüth, S.; Giese, R.; Jaksch, K.; Rechlin, A.; Kopf, M.; Stahlmann, J.; Gattermann, J.; Bruns, B.

    2009-12-01

    Efficient and safe drilling is a prerequisite to enhance the mobility of people and goods, to improve the traffic as well as utility infrastructure of growing megacities, and to ensure the growing energy demand while building geothermal and in hydroelectric power plants. Construction within the underground is often building within the unknown. An enhanced risk potential for people and the underground building may arise if drilling enters fracture zones, karsts, brittle rocks, mixed solid and soft rocks, caves, or anthropogenic obstacles. Knowing about the material behavior ahead of the drilling allows reducing the risk during drilling and construction operation. In drilling operations direct observations from boreholes can be complemented with geophysical investigations. In this presentation we focus on “real time” seismic prediction while drilling which is seen as a prerequisite while using geophysical methods in modern drilling operations. In solid rocks P- and S-wave velocity, refraction and reflection as well as seismic wave attenuation can be used for the interpretation of structures ahead of the drilling. An Integrated Seismic Imaging System (ISIS) for exploration ahead of a construction is used, where a pneumatic hammer or a magnetostrictive vibration source generate repetitive signals behind the tunneling machine. Tube waves are generated which travel along the tunnel to the working face. There the tube waves are converted to mainly S- but also P-Waves which interact with the formation ahead of the heading face. The reflected or refracted waves travel back to the working front are converted back to tube waves and recorded using three-component geophones which are fit into the tips of anchor rods. In near real time, the ISIS software allows for an integrated 3D imaging and interpretation of the observed data, geological and geotechnical parameters. Fracture zones, heterogeneities, and variations in the rock properties can be revealed during the drilling

  10. Seismic PRA of a BWR plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishio, Masahide; Fujimoto, Haruo

    2014-01-01

    Since the occurrence of nuclear power plant accidents in the Fukushima Daichi nuclear power station, the regulatory framework on severe accident (SA) has been discussed in Japan. The basic concept is to typify and identify the accident sequences leading to core/primary containment vessel (PCV) damage and to implement SA measures covering internal and external events extensively. As Japan is an earthquake-prone country and earthquakes and tsunami are important natural external events for nuclear safety of nuclear power plants, JNES performed the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on a typical nuclear power plant and evaluated the dominant accident sequences leading to core/PCV damage to discuss dominant scenarios of severe accident (SA). The analytical models and the results of level-1 seismic PRA on a 1,100 MWe BWR-5 plant are shown here. Seismic PRA was performed for a typical BWR5 plant. Initiating events with large contribution to core damage frequency are the loss of all AC powers (station blackout) and the large LOCA. The top of dominant accident sequences is the simultaneous occurrence of station blackout and large LOCA. Important components to core damage frequency are electric power supply equipment. It needs to keep in mind that the results are influenced on site geologic characteristic to a greater or lesser. In the process of analysis, issues such as conservative assumptions related to damages of building or structure and success criteria for excessive LOCA are left to be resolved. These issues will be further studied including thermal hydric analysis in the future. (authors)

  11. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  12. Generalized seismic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Thomas G.

    1993-09-01

    There is a constant need to be able to solve for enforced motion of structures. Spacecraft need to be qualified for acceleration inputs. Truck cargoes need to be safeguarded from road mishaps. Office buildings need to withstand earthquake shocks. Marine machinery needs to be able to withstand hull shocks. All of these kinds of enforced motions are being grouped together under the heading of seismic inputs. Attempts have been made to cope with this problem over the years and they usually have ended up with some limiting or compromise conditions. The crudest approach was to limit the problem to acceleration occurring only at a base of a structure, constrained to be rigid. The analyst would assign arbitrarily outsized masses to base points. He would then calculate the magnitude of force to apply to the base mass (or masses) in order to produce the specified acceleration. He would of necessity have to sacrifice the determination of stresses in the vicinity of the base, because of the artificial nature of the input forces. The author followed the lead of John M. Biggs by using relative coordinates for a rigid base in a 1975 paper, and again in a 1981 paper . This method of relative coordinates was extended and made operational as DMAP ALTER packets to rigid formats 9, 10, 11, and 12 under contract N60921-82-C-0128. This method was presented at the twelfth NASTRAN Colloquium. Another analyst in the field developed a method that computed the forces from enforced motion then applied them as a forcing to the remaining unknowns after the knowns were partitioned off. The method was translated into DMAP ALTER's but was never made operational. All of this activity jelled into the current effort. Much thought was invested in working out ways to unshakle the analysis of enforced motions from the limitations that persisted.

  13. Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    mouloud, Hamidatou

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

  14. Seismic isolation of nuclear power plants using sliding isolation bearings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Manish

    Nuclear power plants (NPP) are designed for earthquake shaking with very long return periods. Seismic isolation is a viable strategy to protect NPPs from extreme earthquake shaking because it filters a significant fraction of earthquake input energy. This study addresses the seismic isolation of NPPs using sliding bearings, with a focus on the single concave Friction Pendulum(TM) (FP) bearing. Friction at the sliding surface of an FP bearing changes continuously during an earthquake as a function of sliding velocity, axial pressure and temperature at the sliding surface. The temperature at the sliding surface, in turn, is a function of the histories of coefficient of friction, sliding velocity and axial pressure, and the travel path of the slider. A simple model to describe the complex interdependence of the coefficient of friction, axial pressure, sliding velocity and temperature at the sliding surface is proposed, and then verified and validated. Seismic hazard for a seismically isolated nuclear power plant is defined in the United States using a uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at mean annual frequencies of exceedance (MAFE) of 10-4 and 10 -5. A key design parameter is the clearance to the hard stop (CHS), which is influenced substantially by the definition of the seismic hazard. Four alternate representations of seismic hazard are studied, which incorporate different variabilities and uncertainties. Response-history analyses performed on single FP-bearing isolation systems using ground motions consistent with the four representations at the two shaking levels indicate that the CHS is influenced primarily by whether the observed difference between the two horizontal components of ground motions in a given set is accounted for. The UHRS at the MAFE of 10-4 is increased by a design factor (≥ 1) for conventional (fixed base) nuclear structure to achieve a target annual frequency of unacceptable performance. Risk oriented calculations are performed for

  15. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  16. Calibration of Seismic Attributes for Reservoir Characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pennington, Wayne D.

    2002-05-29

    This project is intended to enhance the ability to use seismic data for the determination of rock and fluid properties through an improved understanding of the physics underlying the relationships between seismic attributes and formation.

  17. SEG Advances in Rotational Seismic Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pierson, Robert; Laughlin, Darren; Brune, Bob

    2016-10-17

    Significant advancements in the development of sensors to enable rotational seismic measurements have been achieved. Prototypes are available now to support experiments that help validate the utility of rotational seismic measurements.

  18. Annual Hanford seismic report - fiscal year 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartshorn, D.C.; Reidel, S.P.

    1996-12-01

    Seismic monitoring (SM) at the Hanford Site was established in 1969 by the US Geological Survey (USGS) under a contract with the US Atomic Energy Commission. Since 1980, the program has been managed by several contractors under the US Department of Energy (USDOE). Effective October 1, 1996, the Seismic Monitoring workscope, personnel, and associated contracts were transferred to the USDOE Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). SM is tasked to provide an uninterrupted collection and archives of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) located on and encircling the Hanford Site. SM is also tasked to locate and identify sources of seismic activity and monitor changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data compiled are used by SM, Waste Management, and engineering activities at the Hanford Site to evaluate seismic hazards and seismic design for the Site

  19. SEISMIC DESIGN CRITERIA FOR NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williamson, R. A.

    1963-10-15

    The nature of nuclear power reactors demands an exceptionally high degree of seismic integrity. Considerations involved in defining earthquake resistance requirements are discussed. Examples of seismic design criteria and applications of the spectrum technique are described. (auth)

  20. Seismic analysis and testing of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    The following subjects are discussed in this guide: General Recommendations for seismic classification, loading combinations and allowable limits; seismic analysis methods; implications for seismic design; seismic testing and qualification; seismic instrumentation; modelling techniques; material property characterization; seismic response of soil deposits and earth structures; liquefaction and ground failure; slope stability; sloshing effects in water pools; qualification testing by means of the transport vehicle

  1. The Apollo passive seismic experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latham, G. V.; Dorman, H. J.; Horvath, P.; Ibrahim, A. K.; Koyama, J.; Nakamura, Y.

    1979-01-01

    The completed data set obtained from the 4-station Apollo seismic network includes signals from approximately 11,800 events of various types. Four data sets for use by other investigators, through the NSSDC, are in preparation. Some refinement of the lunar model based on seismic data can be expected, but its gross features remain as presented two years ago. The existence of a small, molten core remains dependent upon the analysis of signals from a single, far-side impact. Analysis of secondary arrivals from other sources may eventually resolve this issue, as well as continued refinement of the magnetic field measurements. Evidence of considerable lateral heterogeneity within the moon continues to build. The mystery of the much meteoroid flux estimate derived from lunar seismic measurements, as compared with earth-based estimates, remains; although, significant correlations between terrestrial and lunar observations are beginning to emerge.

  2. Seismic scanning tunneling macroscope - Theory

    KAUST Repository

    Schuster, Gerard T.

    2012-09-01

    We propose a seismic scanning tunneling macroscope (SSTM) that can detect the presence of sub-wavelength scatterers in the near-field of either the source or the receivers. Analytic formulas for the time reverse mirror (TRM) profile associated with a single scatterer model show that the spatial resolution limit to be, unlike the Abbe limit of λ/2, independent of wavelength and linearly proportional to the source-scatterer separation as long as the point scatterer is in the near-field region; if the sub-wavelength scatterer is a spherical impedance discontinuity then the resolution will also be limited by the radius of the sphere. Therefore, superresolution imaging can be achieved as the scatterer approaches the source. This is analogous to an optical scanning tunneling microscope that has sub-wavelength resolution. Scaled to seismic frequencies, it is theoretically possible to extract 100 Hz information from 20 Hz data by imaging of near-field seismic energy.

  3. Seismic scanning tunneling macroscope - Theory

    KAUST Repository

    Schuster, Gerard T.; Hanafy, Sherif M.; Huang, Yunsong

    2012-01-01

    We propose a seismic scanning tunneling macroscope (SSTM) that can detect the presence of sub-wavelength scatterers in the near-field of either the source or the receivers. Analytic formulas for the time reverse mirror (TRM) profile associated with a single scatterer model show that the spatial resolution limit to be, unlike the Abbe limit of λ/2, independent of wavelength and linearly proportional to the source-scatterer separation as long as the point scatterer is in the near-field region; if the sub-wavelength scatterer is a spherical impedance discontinuity then the resolution will also be limited by the radius of the sphere. Therefore, superresolution imaging can be achieved as the scatterer approaches the source. This is analogous to an optical scanning tunneling microscope that has sub-wavelength resolution. Scaled to seismic frequencies, it is theoretically possible to extract 100 Hz information from 2