WorldWideScience

Sample records for simulant variability study

  1. Eternity Variables to Simulate Specifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hesselink, WH; Boiten, EA; Moller, B

    2002-01-01

    Simulation of specifications is introduced as a unification and generalization of refinement mappings, history variables, forward simulations, prophecy variables, and backward simulations. Eternity variables are introduced as a more powerful alternative for prophecy variables and backward

  2. Molecular Simulation Study of Montmorillonite in Contact with Variably Wet Supercritical Carbon Dioxide

    KAUST Repository

    Kadoura, Ahmad Salim; Nair, Arun Kumar Narayanan; Sun, Shuyu

    2017-01-01

    We perform grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations to study the detailed molecular mechanism of intercalation behavior of CO2 in Na-, Ca-, and Mg- montmorillonite exposed to variably hydrated supercritical CO2 at 323.15 K and 90 bar, The simulations

  3. Temporal Variability of Observed and Simulated Hyperspectral Earth Reflectance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Yolanda; Pilewskie, Peter; Kindel, Bruce; Feldman, Daniel; Collins, William D.

    2012-01-01

    The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is a climate observation system designed to study Earth's climate variability with unprecedented absolute radiometric accuracy and SI traceability. Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were developed using GCM output and MODTRAN to simulate CLARREO reflectance measurements during the 21st century as a design tool for the CLARREO hyperspectral shortwave imager. With OSSE simulations of hyperspectral reflectance, Feldman et al. [2011a,b] found that shortwave reflectance is able to detect changes in climate variables during the 21st century and improve time-to-detection compared to broadband measurements. The OSSE has been a powerful tool in the design of the CLARREO imager and for understanding the effect of climate change on the spectral variability of reflectance, but it is important to evaluate how well the OSSE simulates the Earth's present-day spectral variability. For this evaluation we have used hyperspectral reflectance measurements from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY), a shortwave spectrometer that was operational between March 2002 and April 2012. To study the spectral variability of SCIAMACHY-measured and OSSE-simulated reflectance, we used principal component analysis (PCA), a spectral decomposition technique that identifies dominant modes of variability in a multivariate data set. Using quantitative comparisons of the OSSE and SCIAMACHY PCs, we have quantified how well the OSSE captures the spectral variability of Earth?s climate system at the beginning of the 21st century relative to SCIAMACHY measurements. These results showed that the OSSE and SCIAMACHY data sets share over 99% of their total variance in 2004. Using the PCs and the temporally distributed reflectance spectra projected onto the PCs (PC scores), we can study the temporal variability of the observed and simulated reflectance spectra. Multivariate time

  4. Eternity Variables to Prove Simulation of Specifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hesselink, Wim H.

    2005-01-01

    Simulations of specifications are introduced as a unification and generalization of refinement mappings, history variables, forward simulations, prophecy variables, and backward simulations. A specification implements another specification if and only if there is a simulation from the first one to

  5. Integration of a driving simulator and a traffic simulator case study: Exploring drivers' behavior in response to variable message signs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansoureh Jeihani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available For the first time, a driving simulator has been integrated with a traffic simulator at the network level to allow subjects to drive in a fairly realistic environment with a realistic traffic flow and density. A 10 mi2 (25 km2 network was developed in a driving simulator and then exported to a traffic simulator. About 30 subjects drove the simulator under different traffic and driving conditions and variable message sign (VMS information, both with and without integration. Route guidance was available for the subjects. The challenges of the integration process are explained and its advantages investigated. The study concluded that traffic density, VMS reliability and compliance behavior are higher when driving and traffic simulators are integrated. To find factors affecting route diversion, researchers applied a binary logistic regression model. The results indicated that the original chosen route, displayed VMS information, subjects' attitude toward VMS information helpfulness, and their level of exposure to VMS affect route diversion. In addition, a multinomial logistic regression model was employed to investigate important factors in route choice. The results revealed that there is a significant correlation with driver route choice behavior and their actual travel time, the need for GPS, VMS exposure and also the designed scenarios. It should be noted that the paper was peer-reviewed by TRB and presented at the TRB Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., January 2016. Keywords: Integration, Variable message sign, Compliance behavior, Driving simulator, Traffic simulator, Discrete choice analysis

  6. Performance Variables and Professional Experience in Simulated Laparoscopy: A Two-Group Learning Curve Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luursema, J.M.; Rovers, Maroeska M.; Groenier, Marleen; van Goor, Harry

    2014-01-01

    Objective Virtual reality simulators are increasingly used in laparoscopy training. Such simulators allow objective assessment of performance. However, both low-level variables and overall scores generated by the simulator can be hard to interpret. We present a method to generate intermediate

  7. Performance variables and professional experience in simulated laparoscopy: a two-group learning curve study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luursema, J.M.; Rovers, M.M.; Groenier, M.; Goor, H. van

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Virtual reality simulators are increasingly used in laparoscopy training. Such simulators allow objective assessment of performance. However, both low-level variables and overall scores generated by the simulator can be hard to interpret. We present a method to generate intermediate

  8. A simulation study on estimating biomarker-treatment interaction effects in randomized trials with prognostic variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Bernhard; Ulm, Kurt

    2018-02-20

    To individualize treatment decisions based on patient characteristics, identification of an interaction between a biomarker and treatment is necessary. Often such potential interactions are analysed using data from randomized clinical trials intended for comparison of two treatments. Tests of interactions are often lacking statistical power and we investigated if and how a consideration of further prognostic variables can improve power and decrease the bias of estimated biomarker-treatment interactions in randomized clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes. A simulation study was performed to assess how prognostic factors affect the estimate of the biomarker-treatment interaction for a time-to-event outcome, when different approaches, like ignoring other prognostic factors, including all available covariates or using variable selection strategies, are applied. Different scenarios regarding the proportion of censored observations, the correlation structure between the covariate of interest and further potential prognostic variables, and the strength of the interaction were considered. The simulation study revealed that in a regression model for estimating a biomarker-treatment interaction, the probability of detecting a biomarker-treatment interaction can be increased by including prognostic variables that are associated with the outcome, and that the interaction estimate is biased when relevant prognostic variables are not considered. However, the probability of a false-positive finding increases if too many potential predictors are included or if variable selection is performed inadequately. We recommend undertaking an adequate literature search before data analysis to derive information about potential prognostic variables and to gain power for detecting true interaction effects and pre-specifying analyses to avoid selective reporting and increased false-positive rates.

  9. Simulating variable source problems via post processing of individual particle tallies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleuel, D.L.; Donahue, R.J.; Ludewigt, B.A.; Vujic, J.

    2000-01-01

    Monte Carlo is an extremely powerful method of simulating complex, three dimensional environments without excessive problem simplification. However, it is often time consuming to simulate models in which the source can be highly varied. Similarly difficult are optimization studies involving sources in which many input parameters are variable, such as particle energy, angle, and spatial distribution. Such studies are often approached using brute force methods or intelligent guesswork. One field in which these problems are often encountered is accelerator-driven Boron Neutron Capture Therapy (BNCT) for the treatment of cancers. Solving the reverse problem of determining the best neutron source for optimal BNCT treatment can be accomplished by separating the time-consuming particle-tracking process of a full Monte Carlo simulation from the calculation of the source weighting factors which is typically performed at the beginning of a Monte Carlo simulation. By post-processing these weighting factors on a recorded file of individual particle tally information, the effect of changing source variables can be realized in a matter of seconds, instead of requiring hours or days for additional complete simulations. By intelligent source biasing, any number of different source distributions can be calculated quickly from a single Monte Carlo simulation. The source description can be treated as variable and the effect of changing multiple interdependent source variables on the problem's solution can be determined. Though the focus of this study is on BNCT applications, this procedure may be applicable to any problem that involves a variable source

  10. Diagnostic budget study of the internal variability in ensemble simulations of the Canadian RCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikiema, Oumarou; Laprise, Rene [UQAM, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, Centre ESCER, Departement des Sciences de la Terre et de l' Atmosphere, B.P. 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada)

    2011-06-15

    Due to the chaotic and nonlinear nature of the atmospheric dynamics, it is known that small differences in the initial conditions (IC) of models can grow and affect the simulation evolution. In this study, we perform a quantitative diagnostic budget calculation of the various diabatic and dynamical contributions to the time evolution and spatial distribution of internal variability (IV) in simulations with the nested Canadian Regional Climate Model. We establish prognostic budget equations of the IV for the potential temperature and the relative vorticity fields. For both of these variables, the IV equations present similar terms, notably terms relating to the transport of IV by ensemble-mean flow and to the covariance of fluctuations acting on the gradient of the ensemble-mean state. We show the skill of these equations to diagnose the IV that took place in an ensemble of 20 3-month (summer season) simulations that differed only in their IC. Our study suggests that the dominant terms responsible for the large increase of IV are either the covariance term involving the potential temperature fluctuations and diabatic heating fluctuations, or the covariance of inter-member fluctuations acting upon ensemble-mean gradients. Our results also show that, on average, the third-order terms are negligible, but they can become important when the IV is large. (orig.)

  11. Variable slip wind generator modeling for real-time simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gagnon, R.; Brochu, J.; Turmel, G. [Hydro-Quebec, Varennes, PQ (Canada). IREQ

    2006-07-01

    A model of a wind turbine using a variable slip wound-rotor induction machine was presented. The model was created as part of a library of generic wind generator models intended for wind integration studies. The stator winding of the wind generator was connected directly to the grid and the rotor was driven by the turbine through a drive train. The variable resistors was synthesized by an external resistor in parallel with a diode rectifier. A forced-commutated power electronic device (IGBT) was connected to the wound rotor by slip rings and brushes. Simulations were conducted in a Matlab/Simulink environment using SimPowerSystems blocks to model power systems elements and Simulink blocks to model the turbine, control system and drive train. Detailed descriptions of the turbine, the drive train and the control system were provided. The model's implementation in the simulator was also described. A case study demonstrating the real-time simulation of a wind generator connected at the distribution level of a power system was presented. Results of the case study were then compared with results obtained from the SimPowerSystems off-line simulation. Results showed good agreement between the waveforms, demonstrating the conformity of the real-time and the off-line simulations. The capability of Hypersim for real-time simulation of wind turbines with power electronic converters in a distribution network was demonstrated. It was concluded that hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation of wind turbine controllers for wind integration studies in power systems is now feasible. 5 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

  12. Internal Interdecadal Variability in CMIP5 Control Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, A. H.; Mann, M. E.; Frankcombe, L. M.; England, M. H.; Steinman, B. A.; Miller, S. K.

    2015-12-01

    Here we make use of control simulations from the CMIP5 models to quantify the amplitude of the interdecadal internal variability component in Atlantic, Pacific, and Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature. We compare against estimates derived from observations using a semi-empirical approach wherein the forced component as estimated using CMIP5 historical simulations is removed to yield an estimate of the residual, internal variability. While the observational estimates are largely consistent with those derived from the control simulations for both basins and the Northern Hemisphere, they lie in the upper range of the model distributions, suggesting the possibility of differences between the amplitudes of observed and modeled variability. We comment on some possible reasons for the disparity.

  13. Transient Simulation Study of Slip-Frequency Vector Control for Variable Speed Doubly-Fed Brushless Motor with Magnetic Barrier Rotor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingxiong ZHANG

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a transient simulation model of a variable speed doubly fed brushless motor (DFBM using back-to-back converter is described. Based on analysis of rotor flux oriented vector control theory of doubly fed induction motor, the control of the currents in DFBM that produce the magnetic flux and the torque is achieved by a digital controller, the speed is regulated by a PI controller which is tuned by a genetic algorithm. According to the state equation of DFBM and the control schemes, the system simulation module is established in MATLAB/ SIMULINK. An extensive simulation study is performed to examine the control characteristics of the machine-side converter under different operation conditions in variable-speed DFBM driver system.

  14. Quantifying and mapping spatial variability in simulated forest plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavin R. Corral; Harold E. Burkhart

    2016-01-01

    We used computer simulations to test the efficacy of multivariate statistical methods to detect, quantify, and map spatial variability of forest stands. Simulated stands were developed of regularly-spaced plantations of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.). We assumed no affects of competition or mortality, but random variability was added to individual tree characteristics...

  15. IMPLEMENTING THE DC MODE IN COSMOLOGICAL SIMULATIONS WITH SUPERCOMOVING VARIABLES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kravtsov, Andrey V.; Rudd, Douglas H.

    2011-01-01

    As emphasized by previous studies, proper treatment of the density fluctuation on the fundamental scale of a cosmological simulation volume-the D C mode - is critical for accurate modeling of spatial correlations on scales ∼> 10% of simulation box size. We provide further illustration of the effects of the DC mode on the abundance of halos in small boxes and show that it is straightforward to incorporate this mode in cosmological codes that use the 'supercomoving' variables. The equations governing evolution of dark matter and baryons recast with these variables are particularly simple and include the expansion factor, and hence the effect of the DC mode, explicitly only in the Poisson equation.

  16. Impact of Subsurface Temperature Variability on Meteorological Variability: An AGCM Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahanama, S. P.; Koster, R. D.; Liu, P.

    2006-05-01

    Anomalous atmospheric conditions can lead to surface temperature anomalies, which in turn can lead to temperature anomalies deep in the soil. The deep soil temperature (and the associated ground heat content) has significant memory -- the dissipation of a temperature anomaly may take weeks to months -- and thus deep soil temperature may contribute to the low frequency variability of energy and water variables elsewhere in the system. The memory may even provide some skill to subseasonal and seasonal forecasts. This study uses two long-term AGCM experiments to isolate the contribution of deep soil temperature variability to variability elsewhere in the climate system. The first experiment consists of a standard ensemble of AMIP-type simulations, simulations in which the deep soil temperature variable is allowed to interact with the rest of the system. In the second experiment, the coupling of the deep soil temperature to the rest of the climate system is disabled -- at each grid cell, the local climatological seasonal cycle of deep soil temperature (as determined from the first experiment) is prescribed. By comparing the variability of various atmospheric quantities as generated in the two experiments, we isolate the contribution of interactive deep soil temperature to that variability. The results show that interactive deep soil temperature contributes significantly to surface temperature variability. Interactive deep soil temperature, however, reduces the variability of the hydrological cycle (evaporation and precipitation), largely because it allows for a negative feedback between evaporation and temperature.

  17. Internal and external variability in regional simulations of the Iberian Peninsula climate over the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Gómez-Navarro

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study we analyse the role of internal variability in regional climate simulations through a comparison of two regional paleoclimate simulations for the last millennium. They share the same external forcings and model configuration, differing only in the initial condition used to run the driving global model simulation. A comparison of these simulations allows us to study the role of internal variability in climate models at regional scales, and how it affects the long-term evolution of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. The results indicate that, although temperature is homogeneously sensitive to the effect of external forcings, the evolution of precipitation is more strongly governed by random unpredictable internal dynamics. There are, however, some areas where the role of internal variability is lower than expected, allowing precipitation to respond to the external forcings. In this respect, we explore the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for it. This study identifies areas, depending on the season, in which a direct comparison between model simulations of precipitation and climate reconstructions would be meaningful, but also other areas where good agreement between them should not be expected even if both are perfect.

  18. Output variability caused by random seeds in a multi-agent transport simulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Mads; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2018-01-01

    Dynamic transport simulators are intended to support decision makers in transport-related issues, and as such it is valuable that the random variability of their outputs is as small as possible. In this study we analyse the output variability caused by random seeds of a multi-agent transport...... simulator (MATSim) when applied to a case study of Santiago de Chile. Results based on 100 different random seeds shows that the relative accuracies of estimated link loads tend to increase with link load, but that relative errors of up to 10 % do occur even for links with large volumes. Although...

  19. Regional simulation of interannual variability over South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, V.; Dirmeyer, P. A.; Kirtman, B. P.; Juang, H.-M. Henry; Kanamitsu, M.

    2002-08-01

    Three regional climate simulations covering the austral summer season during three contrasting phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle were conducted with the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The simulated interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon River Basin, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins, and extratropical South America compare reasonably well with observations. The RSM optimally filters the peturbations about a time-varying base field, thereby enhancing the information content of the global NCEP reanalysis. The model is better than the reanalysis in reproducing the observed interannual variability of outgoing longwave radiation at both high frequencies (3-30 days) and intraseasonal (30-60 days) scales. The low-level jet shows a peak in its speed in 1998 and a minimum in the 1999 simulations. The lag correlation of the jet index with convection over various areas in continental South America indicates that the jet induces precipitation over the Pampas region downstream. A detailed moisture budget was conducted over various subregions. This budget reveals that moisture flux convergence determines most of the interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon Basin, the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the Nordeste region of Brazil. However, both surface evaporation and surface moisture flux convergence were found to be critical in determining the interannual variability of precipitation over the southern Pampas, Gran Chaco area, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone.

  20. Read margin analysis of crossbar arrays using the cell-variability-aware simulation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wookyung; Choi, Sujin; Shin, Hyungsoon

    2018-02-01

    This paper proposes a new concept of read margin analysis of crossbar arrays using cell-variability-aware simulation. The size of the crossbar array should be considered to predict the read margin characteristic of the crossbar array because the read margin depends on the number of word lines and bit lines. However, an excessively high-CPU time is required to simulate large arrays using a commercial circuit simulator. A variability-aware MATLAB simulator that considers independent variability sources is developed to analyze the characteristics of the read margin according to the array size. The developed MATLAB simulator provides an effective method for reducing the simulation time while maintaining the accuracy of the read margin estimation in the crossbar array. The simulation is also highly efficient in analyzing the characteristic of the crossbar memory array considering the statistical variations in the cell characteristics.

  1. Molecular Simulation Study of Montmorillonite in Contact with Variably Wet Supercritical Carbon Dioxide

    KAUST Repository

    Kadoura, Ahmad Salim

    2017-03-07

    We perform grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations to study the detailed molecular mechanism of intercalation behavior of CO2 in Na-, Ca-, and Mg- montmorillonite exposed to variably hydrated supercritical CO2 at 323.15 K and 90 bar, The simulations indicate that the intercalation of CO2 strongly depends on the relative humidity (RH). The intercalation of CO2 in the dehydrated interlayer is inhibited, followed by the swelling of the interlayer region due to uptake of water and CO2 as the RH increases. In all of the hydrated clay samples, the amount of the intercalated CO2 generally decreases as a function of increasing RH, which is attributed mainly to the weakening of the interaction between CO2 and clay. At low RH values, Ca- and Mg- montmorillonite are relatively more efficient in capturing CO2. The amount of CO2 trapped in all clay samples shows similar values above RH of similar to 60%. Molecular dynamics simulations show that the diffusion coefficient of each species generally increases with increasing RH due to the associated expansion of the interlayer distance of the clay. For all the hydrated samples, the diffusion coefficients of CO2 and water in the interlayers are mostly comparable due to the fact that CO2 molecules are well solvated. The diffusion of CO2 in each hydration state is mostly independent of the type of cation in accordance with the fact that CO2 molecules hardly migrate into the first hydration shell of the interlayer cations.

  2. Dynamic simulation of variable capacity refrigeration systems under abnormal conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Nan; Shao Shuangquan; Tian Changqing; Yan Yuying

    2010-01-01

    There are often abnormal working conditions at evaporator outlet of a refrigeration system, such as two-phase state in transient process, and it is essential to investigate such transient behaviours for system design and control strategy. In this paper, a dynamic lumped parameter model is developed to simulate the transient behaviours of refrigeration system with variable capacity in both normal and abnormal working conditions. The appropriate discriminant method is adopted to switch the normal and abnormal conditions smoothly and to eliminate the simulated data oscillation. In order to verify the dynamic model, we built a test system with variable frequency compressor, water-cooling condenser, evaporator and electronic expansion valve. Calculated values from the mathematical model show reasonable agreement with the experimental data. The simulation results show that the transient behaviours of the variable capacity refrigeration system in the abnormal working conditions can be calculated reliably with the dynamic model when the compressor rotary speed or the opening of electronic expansion valve changes abruptly.

  3. Simulation of Few Bifurcation Phase Diagrams of Belousov-Zhabotinsky Reaction with Eleven Variable Chaotic Model in CSTR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Swathi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulation of the Gyorgyi, Rempe and Field eleven variable chaotic model in CSTR [Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor] is performed with respect to the concentrations of malonic acid and [Ce(III]. These simulation studies show steady state, periodic and non-periodic regions. These studies have been presented as two variable bifurcation phase diagrams. We also have observed the bursting phenomenon under different set of constraints. We have given much importance on computer simulation work but not included the experimental methods in this paper.

  4. Laboratory development of wind turbine simulator using variable ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    1*Department of Electronics Engineering, Prof. ... In this paper variable speed induction motor drive using scalar control is interfaced in wind energy conversion ... the wind turbine simulator is used as a necessary tool in research laboratories.

  5. Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Furevik, T.; Zhou, T.

    To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1-3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC

  6. Quantitative Comparison of the Variability in Observed and Simulated Shortwave Reflectance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Yolanda, L.; Pilewskie, P.; Kindel, B. C.; Feldman, D. R.; Collins, W. D.

    2013-01-01

    The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is a climate observation system that has been designed to monitor the Earth's climate with unprecedented absolute radiometric accuracy and SI traceability. Climate Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) have been generated to simulate CLARREO hyperspectral shortwave imager measurements to help define the measurement characteristics needed for CLARREO to achieve its objectives. To evaluate how well the OSSE-simulated reflectance spectra reproduce the Earth s climate variability at the beginning of the 21st century, we compared the variability of the OSSE reflectance spectra to that of the reflectance spectra measured by the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY). Principal component analysis (PCA) is a multivariate decomposition technique used to represent and study the variability of hyperspectral radiation measurements. Using PCA, between 99.7%and 99.9%of the total variance the OSSE and SCIAMACHY data sets can be explained by subspaces defined by six principal components (PCs). To quantify how much information is shared between the simulated and observed data sets, we spectrally decomposed the intersection of the two data set subspaces. The results from four cases in 2004 showed that the two data sets share eight (January and October) and seven (April and July) dimensions, which correspond to about 99.9% of the total SCIAMACHY variance for each month. The spectral nature of these shared spaces, understood by examining the transformed eigenvectors calculated from the subspace intersections, exhibit similar physical characteristics to the original PCs calculated from each data set, such as water vapor absorption, vegetation reflectance, and cloud reflectance.

  7. Simulation Analysis and Experiment of Variable-Displacement Asymmetric Axial Piston Pump

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youshan Gao

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The variable displacement pump control system has greater energy-saving advantages and application prospects than the valve control system. However, the variable displacement pump control of differential cylinder is not concurrent with the existing technologies. The asymmetric pump-controlled cylinder is, therefore, used to balance the unequal volume flow through a single rod cylinder in closed-circuit system. This is considered to be an effective method. Nevertheless, the asymmetric axial piston pump (AAPP is a constant displacement pump. In this study, variable-displacement asymmetric axial piston pump (VAPP is investigated according to the same principle used in investigating AAPP. This study, therefore, aims at investigating the characteristics of VAPP. The variable-displacement output of VAPP is implemented by controlling the swash plate angle with angle feedback control circuit, which is composed of a servo proportional valve and an angular displacement sensor. The angular displacement sensor is connected to the swash plate. The simulation model of VAPP, which is set up through the ITI-SimulationX simulation platform, is used to predict VAPP’s characteristics. The purpose of implementing the experiment is to verify the theoretical results. Both the simulation and the experiment results demonstrated that the swash plate angle is controlled by a variable mechanism; when the swash plate angle increases, the flow of Port B and Port T increases while the response speed of Port B and Port T also accelerates. When the swash plate angle is constant, the flow of Port B and Port T increases along with the increase of pump speed, although the pressure-response speed of Port B is faster than that of Port T. Consequently, the flow pulsation of Port B and Port T tends to decrease gradually along with the increase of pump speed. When the pressure loaded on Port B equals to that of Port T, the flow ripple cycle of Port B is longer than that of Port T

  8. Damaris: Addressing performance variability in data management for post-petascale simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorier, Matthieu; Antoniu, Gabriel; Cappello, Franck; Snir, Marc; Sisneros, Robert

    2016-01-01

    With exascale computing on the horizon, reducing performance variability in data management tasks (storage, visualization, analysis, etc.) is becoming a key challenge in sustaining high performance. Here, this variability significantly impacts the overall application performance at scale and its predictability over time. In this article, we present Damaris, a system that leverages dedicated cores in multicore nodes to offload data management tasks, including I/O, data compression, scheduling of data movements, in situ analysis, and visualization. We evaluate Damaris with the CM1 atmospheric simulation and the Nek5000 computational fluid dynamic simulation on four platforms, including NICS’s Kraken and NCSA’s Blue Waters. Our results show that (1) Damaris fully hides the I/O variability as well as all I/O-related costs, thus making simulation performance predictable; (2) it increases the sustained write throughput by a factor of up to 15 compared with standard I/O approaches; (3) it allows almost perfect scalability of the simulation up to over 9,000 cores, as opposed to state-of-the-art approaches that fail to scale; and (4) it enables a seamless connection to the VisIt visualization software to perform in situ analysis and visualization in a way that impacts neither the performance of the simulation nor its variability. In addition, we extended our implementation of Damaris to also support the use of dedicated nodes and conducted a thorough comparison of the two approaches—dedicated cores and dedicated nodes—for I/O tasks with the aforementioned applications.

  9. Viscoelastic Earthquake Cycle Simulation with Memory Variable Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirahara, K.; Ohtani, M.

    2017-12-01

    There have so far been no EQ (earthquake) cycle simulations, based on RSF (rate and state friction) laws, in viscoelastic media, except for Kato (2002), who simulated cycles on a 2-D vertical strike-slip fault, and showed nearly the same cycles as those in elastic cases. The viscoelasticity could, however, give more effects on large dip-slip EQ cycles. In a boundary element approach, stress is calculated using a hereditary integral of stress relaxation function and slip deficit rate, where we need the past slip rates, leading to huge computational costs. This is a cause for almost no simulations in viscoelastic media. We have investigated the memory variable method utilized in numerical computation of wave propagation in dissipative media (e.g., Moczo and Kristek, 2005). In this method, introducing memory variables satisfying 1st order differential equations, we need no hereditary integrals in stress calculation and the computational costs are the same order of those in elastic cases. Further, Hirahara et al. (2012) developed the iterative memory variable method, referring to Taylor et al. (1970), in EQ cycle simulations in linear viscoelastic media. In this presentation, first, we introduce our method in EQ cycle simulations and show the effect of the linear viscoelasticity on stick-slip cycles in a 1-DOF block-SLS (standard linear solid) model, where the elastic spring of the traditional block-spring model is replaced by SLS element and we pull, in a constant rate, the block obeying RSF law. In this model, the memory variable stands for the displacement of the dash-pot in SLS element. The use of smaller viscosity reduces the recurrence time to a minimum value. The smaller viscosity means the smaller relaxation time, which makes the stress recovery quicker, leading to the smaller recurrence time. Second, we show EQ cycles on a 2-D dip-slip fault with the dip angel of 20 degrees in an elastic layer with thickness of 40 km overriding a Maxwell viscoelastic half

  10. Analyst-to-Analyst Variability in Simulation-Based Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glickman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Romero, Vicente J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-02-01

    This report describes findings from the culminating experiment of the LDRD project entitled, "Analyst-to-Analyst Variability in Simulation-Based Prediction". For this experiment, volunteer participants solving a given test problem in engineering and statistics were interviewed at different points in their solution process. These interviews are used to trace differing solutions to differing solution processes, and differing processes to differences in reasoning, assumptions, and judgments. The issue that the experiment was designed to illuminate -- our paucity of understanding of the ways in which humans themselves have an impact on predictions derived from complex computational simulations -- is a challenging and open one. Although solution of the test problem by analyst participants in this experiment has taken much more time than originally anticipated, and is continuing past the end of this LDRD, this project has provided a rare opportunity to explore analyst-to-analyst variability in significant depth, from which we derive evidence-based insights to guide further explorations in this important area.

  11. Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrifield, A.; Xie, S. P.

    2016-02-01

    This study documents and investigates biases in simulating summer surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the continental U.S. in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate regression analyses are used to assess the relative importance of circulation and the land surface feedback at setting summer SAT over a 30-year period (1979-2008). In observations, regions of high SAT variability are closely associated with midtropospheric highs and subsidence, consistent with adiabatic theory (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004, Lau and Nath 2012). Preliminary analysis shows the majority of the AMIP models feature high SAT variability over the central U.S., displaced south and/or west of observed centers of action (COAs). SAT COAs in models tend to be concomitant with regions of high sensible heat flux variability, suggesting an excessive land surface feedback in these models modulate U.S. summer SAT. Additionally, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a role in forcing the leading EOF mode for summer SAT, in concert with internal atmospheric variability. There is evidence that models respond to different SST patterns than observed. Addressing issues with the bulk land surface feedback and the SST-forced component of atmospheric variability may be key to improving model skill in simulating summer SAT variability over the U.S.

  12. Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerandi, Noah Misati; Laux, Patrick; Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-10-01

    This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011-2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

  13. Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

    2013-12-01

    Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

  14. Regional Community Climate Simulations with variable resolution meshes in the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarzycki, C. M.; Gettelman, A.; Callaghan, P.

    2017-12-01

    Accurately predicting weather extremes such as precipitation (floods and droughts) and temperature (heat waves) requires high resolution to resolve mesoscale dynamics and topography at horizontal scales of 10-30km. Simulating such resolutions globally for climate scales (years to decades) remains computationally impractical. Simulating only a small region of the planet is more tractable at these scales for climate applications. This work describes global simulations using variable-resolution static meshes with multiple dynamical cores that target the continental United States using developmental versions of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). CESM2 is tested in idealized, aquaplanet and full physics configurations to evaluate variable mesh simulations against uniform high and uniform low resolution simulations at resolutions down to 15km. Different physical parameterization suites are also evaluated to gauge their sensitivity to resolution. Idealized variable-resolution mesh cases compare well to high resolution tests. More recent versions of the atmospheric physics, including cloud schemes for CESM2, are more stable with respect to changes in horizontal resolution. Most of the sensitivity is due to sensitivity to timestep and interactions between deep convection and large scale condensation, expected from the closure methods. The resulting full physics model produces a comparable climate to the global low resolution mesh and similar high frequency statistics in the high resolution region. Some biases are reduced (orographic precipitation in the western United States), but biases do not necessarily go away at high resolution (e.g. summertime JJA surface Temp). The simulations are able to reproduce uniform high resolution results, making them an effective tool for regional climate studies and are available in CESM2.

  15. Effect of land model ensemble versus coupled model ensemble on the simulation of precipitation climatology and variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan

    2017-10-01

    Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.

  16. Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Monsoon as Simulated by a Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Sneh; Kar, S. C.

    2018-01-01

    This study uses the global forecast system (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution to carry out seasonal simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. Main objectives of the study are to evaluate the simulated Indian monsoon variability in intraseasonal timescales. The GFS model has been integrated for 29 monsoon seasons with 15 member ensembles forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and additional 16-member ensemble runs have been carried out using climatological SSTs. Northward propagation of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the Indian region from the model simulations has been examined. It is found that the model is unable to simulate the observed moisture pattern when the active zone of convection is over central India. However, the model simulates the observed pattern of specific humidity during the life cycle of northward propagation on day - 10 and day + 10 of maximum convection over central India. The space-time spectral analysis of the simulated equatorial waves shows that the ensemble members have varying amount of power in each band of wavenumbers and frequencies. However, variations among ensemble members are more in the antisymmetric component of westward moving waves and maximum difference in power is seen in the 8-20 day mode among ensemble members.

  17. Contribution to the electrothermal simulation in power electronics. Development of a simulation methodology applied to switching circuits under variable operating conditions; Contribution a la simulation electrothermique en electronique de puissance. Developpement d`une methode de simulation pour circuits de commutation soumis a des commandes variables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vales, P.

    1997-03-19

    In modern hybrid or monolithic integrated power circuits, electrothermal effects can no longer be ignored. A methodology is proposed in order to simulate electrothermal effects in power circuits, with a significant reduction of the computation time while taking into account electrical and thermal time constants which are usually widely different. A supervising program, written in Fortran, uses system call sequences and manages an interactive dialog between a fast thermal simulator and a general electrical simulator. This explicit coupling process between two specific simulators requires a multi-task operating system. The developed software allows for the prediction of the electrothermal power dissipation drift in the active areas of components, and the prediction of thermally-induced coupling effects between adjacent components. An application to the study of hard switching circuits working under variable operating conditions is presented

  18. The role of SST variability in the simulation of the MJO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Cristiana

    2017-12-01

    The sensitivity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation to high-frequency variability (period 1-5 days) of sea surface temperature (SST) is investigated using numerical experiments with the super-parameterized Community Climate System Model. The findings of this study emphasize the importance of air-sea interactions in the simulation of the MJO, and stress the necessity of an accurate representation of ocean variability on short time scales. Eliminating 1-5-day variability of surface boundary forcing reduces the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the tropics during the boreal winter. The ISV spectrum becomes close to the red noise background spectrum. The variability of atmospheric circulation shifts to longer time scales. In the absence of high-frequency variability of SST the MJO power gets confined to wavenumbers 1-2 and the magnitude of westward power associated with Rossby waves increases. The MJO convective activity propagating eastward from the Indian Ocean does not cross the Maritime Continent, and convection in the western Pacific Ocean is locally generated. In the Indian Ocean convection tends to follow the meridional propagation of SST anomalies. The response of the MJO to 1-5-day variability in the SST is through the charging and discharging mechanisms contributing to the atmospheric column moist static energy before and after peak MJO convection. Horizontal advection and surface fluxes show the largest sensitivity to SST perturbations.

  19. BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES FOR COMPARING TIME-DEPENDENT GRMHD SIMULATIONS TO VARIABLE EVENT HORIZON TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Junhan; Marrone, Daniel P.; Chan, Chi-Kwan; Medeiros, Lia; Özel, Feryal; Psaltis, Dimitrios, E-mail: junhankim@email.arizona.edu [Department of Astronomy and Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, 933 N. Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

    2016-12-01

    The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter-wavelength, very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiment that is capable of observing black holes with horizon-scale resolution. Early observations have revealed variable horizon-scale emission in the Galactic Center black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). Comparing such observations to time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations requires statistical tools that explicitly consider the variability in both the data and the models. We develop here a Bayesian method to compare time-resolved simulation images to variable VLBI data, in order to infer model parameters and perform model comparisons. We use mock EHT data based on GRMHD simulations to explore the robustness of this Bayesian method and contrast it to approaches that do not consider the effects of variability. We find that time-independent models lead to offset values of the inferred parameters with artificially reduced uncertainties. Moreover, neglecting the variability in the data and the models often leads to erroneous model selections. We finally apply our method to the early EHT data on Sgr A*.

  20. Final report on LDRD project: Simulation/optimization tools for system variability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. L. Bierbaum; R. F. Billau; J. E. Campbell; K. D. Marx; R. J. Sikorski; B. M. Thompson; S. D. Wix

    1999-10-01

    >This work was conducted during FY98 (Proposal Number 98-0036) and FY99 (Proposal Number 99-0818) under the auspices of the Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. Electrical simulation typically treats a single data point in the very large input space of component properties. For electrical simulation to reach its full potential as a design tool, it must be able to address the unavoidable variability and uncertainty in component properties. Component viability is strongly related to the design margin (and reliability) of the end product. During the course of this project, both tools and methodologies were developed to enable analysis of variability in the context of electrical simulation tools. Two avenues to link relevant tools were also developed, and the resultant toolset was applied to a major component.

  1. Simulation of spontaneous and variable global dust storms with the GFDL Mars GCM

    OpenAIRE

    Basu, Shabari; Wilson, John; Richardson, Mark; Ingersoll, Andrew

    2006-01-01

    We report on the successful simulation of global dust storms in a general circulation model. The simulated storms develop spontaneously in multiyear simulations and exhibit significant interannual variability. The simulated storms produce dramatic increases in atmospheric dustiness, global-mean air temperatures, and atmospheric circulation intensity, in accord with observations. As with observed global storms, spontaneous initiation of storms in the model occurs in southern spring and summer,...

  2. Variable Ratio Hydrostatic Transmission Simulator for Optimal Wind Power Drivetrains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose M. Garcia-Bravo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a hydromechanical transmission coupled to an electric AC motor and DC generator to simulate a wind power turbine drive train. The goal of this project was to demonstrate and simulate the ability of a hydrostatic variable ratio system to produce constant electric power at varying wind speeds. The experimental results show that the system can maintain a constant voltage when a 40% variation in input speed is produced. An accompanying computer simulation of the system was built and experimentally validated showing a discrete error no larger than 12%. Both the simulation and the experimental results show that the electrical power output can be regulated further if an energy storage device is used to absorb voltage spikes produced by abrupt changes in wind speed or wind direction.

  3. Modeling of carbon sequestration in coal-beds: A variable saturated simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Guoxiang; Smirnov, Andrei V.

    2008-01-01

    Storage of carbon dioxide in deep coal seams is a profitable method to reduce the concentration of green house gases in the atmosphere while the methane as a byproduct can be extracted during carbon dioxide injection into the coal seam. In this procedure, the key element is to keep carbon dioxide in the coal seam without escaping for a long term. It is depended on many factors such as properties of coal basin, fracture state, phase equilibrium, etc., especially the porosity, permeability and saturation of the coal seam. In this paper, a variable saturation model was developed to predict the capacity of carbon dioxide sequestration and coal-bed methane recovery. This variable saturation model can be used to track the saturation variability with the partial pressures change caused by carbon dioxide injection. Saturation variability is a key factor to predict the capacity of carbon dioxide storage and methane recovery. Based on this variable saturation model, a set of related variables including capillary pressure, relative permeability, porosity, coupled adsorption model, concentration and temperature equations were solved. From results of the simulation, historical data agree with the variable saturation model as well as the adsorption model constructed by Langmuir equations. The Appalachian basin, as an example, modeled the carbon dioxide sequestration in this paper. The results of the study and the developed models can provide the projections for the CO 2 sequestration and methane recovery in coal-beds within different regional specifics

  4. Simulated Summer Rainfall Variability Effects on Loblolly Pine (Pinus taeda Seedling Physiology and Susceptibility to Root-Infecting Ophiostomatoid Fungi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Chieppa

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Seedlings from four families of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L. were grown in capped open-top chambers and exposed to three different weekly moisture regimes for 13 weeks. Moisture regimes varied in intensity and frequency of simulated rainfall (irrigation events; however, the total amounts were comparable. These simulated treatments were chosen to simulate expected changes in rainfall variability associated with climate change. Seedlings were inoculated with two root-infecting ophiostomatoid fungi associated with Southern Pine Decline. We found susceptibility of loblolly pine was not affected by water stress; however, one family that was most sensitive to inoculation was also most sensitive to changes in moisture availability. Many studies have examined the effects of drought (well-watered vs. dry conditions on pine physiology and host-pathogen interactions but little is known about variability in moisture supply. This study aimed to elucidate the effects of variability in water availability, pathogen inoculation and their interaction on physiology of loblolly pine seedlings.

  5. Interannual Rainfall Variability in North-East Brazil: Observation and Model Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harzallah, A.; Rocha de Aragão, J. O.; Sadourny, R.

    1996-08-01

    The relationship between interannual variability of rainfall in north-east Brazil and tropical sea-surface temperature is studied using observations and model simulations. The simulated precipitation is the average of seven independent realizations performed using the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general model forced by the 1970-1988 observed sea-surface temperature. The model reproduces very well the rainfall anomalies (correlation of 091 between observed and modelled anomalies). The study confirms that precipitation in north-east Brazil is highly correlated to the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Using the singular value decomposition method, we find that Nordeste rainfall is modulated by two independent oscillations, both governed by the Atlantic dipole, but one involving only the Pacific, the other one having a period of about 10 years. Correlations between precipitation in north-east Brazil during February-May and the sea-surface temperature 6 months earlier indicate that both modes are essential to estimate the quality of the rainy season.

  6. A reduced switch count UPF power conditioner for grid connected variable speed wind energy conversion system employing PM generators: a simulation study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raju, A.B.; Fernandes, B.G.; Chatterjee, K. [Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai (India). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2004-07-01

    In this paper, modelling and simulation of a grid connected variable speed wind energy conversion system (VSWECS) with reduced switch count power converter is presented. The system consists of a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG), two-pulse width modulated B-4 power converters and a maximum power point tracker (MPPT). Mathematical models of each element of the system are developed separately and are then integrated to simulate the whole system for various wind velocities. The complete system is simulated using MATLAB/SIMULINK and simulation results are presented. (author)

  7. Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.

    2014-12-01

    The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using ERA-Interim re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally- refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.

  8. Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dentener

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years (1979--1993 re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying emissions including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH4 concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions (45--90 N, 0--45 N, 0--45 S, 45--90 S we find good agreement in each region between (top-down calculated emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic emission database, which amounts for the period 1979--1993 2.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either varied, or kept constant. In studies of methane trends it is most important to include the trends and variability of the oxidant fields. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of 8Tg CH4 yr-1, and likely related to wetland emissions and/or biomass burning.

  9. Shift of biome patterns due to simulated climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claussen, M.

    1993-01-01

    The variability of simulated equilibrium-response patterns of biomes caused by simulated climate variability and climate shift is analysed. This investigation is based on various realisations of simulated present-day climate and climate shift. It has been found that the difference between biomes computed from three 10-year climatologies and from the corresponding 30-year climatology, simulated by the Hamburg climate model at T21 resolution, amounts to approximately 6% of the total land area, Antarctica excluded. This difference is mainly due to differences in annual moisture availability and winter temperatures. When intercomparing biomes from the 10-year climatologies a 10% difference is seen, but there is no unique difference pattern. In contrast to the interdecadal variability, the shift of conditions favorable for biomes due to a shift in climate in the next 100 years, caused by an increase in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 , reveals a unique trend pattern. It turns out that the strongest and most significant signal is the north-east shift of conditions for boreal biomes. This signal is caused by an increase of annual temperature sums as well as mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months. Trends in annual moisture availability are of secondary importance globally. Regionally, a decrease in water availability affects biomes in Central and East Europe and an increase of water availability leads to a potential increase in tropical rain forest. In total, all differences amount to roughly 30% of the total land surface, Antarctica excluded. (orig./KW)

  10. Variability in sunflower oil quality for biodiesel production: A simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereyra-Irujo, Gustavo A.; Izquierdo, Natalia G.; Covi, Mauro; Nolasco, Susana M.; Quiroz, Facundo; Aguirrezabal, Luis A.N.

    2009-01-01

    Biodiesel is an alternative fuel made from vegetable oils or animal fats. The fatty acid composition of the feedstock, which varies among and within species, is the main determinant of biodiesel quality. In this work we analyze the variability in biodiesel quality (density, kinematic viscosity, heating value, cetane number and iodine value) obtained from sunflower oil, by means of a validated crop model that predicts the fatty acid composition of one high-oleic, and three traditional (high-linoleic) sunflower hybrids. The model was run with a 10-year average weather data from 56 weather stations in Argentina, and simulation results were compared to the biodiesel standards of Argentina, USA and Europe. We show that biodiesel produced from sunflower oil does not have one fixed quality, but different qualities depending on weather conditions and agricultural practices, and that intraspecific variation in biodiesel quality can be larger than interspecific differences. Our results suggest that (a) sunflower oil from high-oleic hybrids is suitable for biodiesel production (within limits of all analyzed standards), regardless of growing conditions and (b) sunflower oil from traditional hybrids is suitable for biodiesel production under the standards of Argentina and USA, while only certain hybrids grown in warm regions (e.g., Northern Argentina, Southern USA, China, India, Pakistan) are suitable for biodiesel production according to the European standard

  11. Simulating variable-density flows with time-consistent integration of Navier-Stokes equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xiaoyi; Pantano, Carlos

    2017-11-01

    In this talk, we present several features of a high-order semi-implicit variable-density low-Mach Navier-Stokes solver. A new formulation to solve pressure Poisson-like equation of variable-density flows is highlighted. With this formulation of the numerical method, we are able to solve all variables with a uniform order of accuracy in time (consistent with the time integrator being used). The solver is primarily designed to perform direct numerical simulations for turbulent premixed flames. Therefore, we also address other important elements, such as energy-stable boundary conditions, synthetic turbulence generation, and flame anchoring method. Numerical examples include classical non-reacting constant/variable-density flows, as well as turbulent premixed flames.

  12. The study, design and simulation of a free piston Stirling engine linear alternatorThe study, design and simulation of a free piston Stirling engine linear alternator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodora Susana Oros

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study, design and simulation of a Free Piston Stirling Engine Linear Alternator. There are presented the main steps of the magnetic and electric calculations for a permanent magnet linear alternator of fixed coil and moving magnets type. Finally, a detailed thermal, mechanical and electrical model for a Stirling engine linear alternator have been made in SIMULINK simulation program. The linear alternator simulation model uses a controllable DC voltage which simulates the linear alternator combined with a rectifier, a variable load and a DC-DC converter, which compensates for the variable nature of Stirling engine operation, and ensures a constant voltage output regardless of the load.

  13. Vertical Motion Changes Related to North-East Brazil Rainfall Variability: a GCM Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roucou, Pascal; Oribe Rocha de Aragão, José; Harzallah, Ali; Fontaine, Bernard; Janicot, Serge

    1996-08-01

    The atmospheric structure over north-east Brazil during anomalous rainfall years is studied in the 11 levels of the outputs of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general circulation model (LMD AGCM). Seven 19-year simulations were performed using observed sea-surface temperature (SST) corresponding to the period 1970- 1988. The ensemble mean is calculated for each month of the period, leading to an ensemble-averaged simulation. The simulated March-April rainfall is in good agreement with observations. Correlations of simulated rainfall and three SST indices relative to the equatorial Pacific and northern and southern parts of the Atlantic Ocean exhibit stronger relationships in the simulation than in the observations. This is particularly true with the SST gradient in the Atlantic (Atlantic dipole). Analyses on 200 ;hPa velocity potential, vertical velocity, and vertical integral of the zonal component of mass flux are performed for years of abnormal rainfall and positive/negative SST anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in March-April during the rainy season over the Nordeste region. The results at 200 hPa show a convergence anomaly over Nordeste and a divergence anomaly over the Pacific concomitant with dry seasons associated with warm SST anomalies in the Pacific and warm (cold) waters in the North (South) Atlantic. During drought years convection inside the ITCZ indicated by the vertical velocity exhibits a displacement of the convection zone corresponding to a northward migration of the ITCZ. The east-west circulation depicted by the zonal divergent mass flux shows subsiding motion over Nordeste and ascending motion over the Pacific in drought years, accompanied by warm waters in the eastern Pacific and warm/cold waters in northern/southern Atlantic. Rainfall variability of the Nordeste rainfall is linked mainly to vertical motion and SST variability through the migration of the ITCZ and the east-west circulation.

  14. Soil erodibility variability in laboratory and field rainfall simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, Boglárka; Szabó, Judit; Jakab, Gergely; Centeri, Csaba; Szalai, Zoltán

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall simulation experiments are the most common way to observe and to model the soil erosion processes in in situ and ex situ circumstances. During modelling soil erosion, one of the most important factors are the annual soil loss and the soil erodibility which represent the effect of soil properties on soil loss and the soil resistance against water erosion. The amount of runoff and soil loss can differ in case of the same soil type, while it's characteristics determine the soil erodibility factor. This leads to uncertainties regarding soil erodibility. Soil loss and soil erodibility were examined with the investigation of the same soil under laboratory and field conditions with rainfall simulators. The comparative measurement was carried out in a laboratory on 0,5 m2, and in the field (Shower Power-02) on 6 m2 plot size where the applied slope angles were 5% and 12% with 30 and 90 mm/h rainfall intensity. The main idea was to examine and compare the soil erodibility and its variability coming from the same soil, but different rainfall simulator type. The applied model was the USLE, nomograph and other equations which concern single rainfall events. The given results show differences between the field and laboratory experiments and between the different calculations. Concerning for the whole rainfall events runoff and soil loss, were significantly higher at the laboratory experiments, which affected the soil erodibility values too. The given differences can originate from the plot size. The main research questions are that: How should we handle the soil erodibility factors and its significant variability? What is the best solution for soil erodibility determination?

  15. Impact of vegetation variability on potential predictability and skill of EC-Earth simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weiss, Martina; Hurk, Bart van den; Haarsma, Reindert; Hazeleger, Wilco [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands)

    2012-12-15

    Climate models often use a simplified and static representation of vegetation characteristics to determine fluxes of energy, momentum and water vapour between surface and lower atmosphere. In order to analyse the impact of short term variability in vegetation phenology, we use remotely-sensed leaf area index and albedo products to examine the role of vegetation in the coupled land-atmosphere system. Perfect model experiments are carried out to determine the impact of realistic temporal variability of vegetation on potential predictability of evaporation and temperature, as well as model skill of EC-Earth simulations. The length of the simulation period is hereby limited by the availability of satellite products to 2000-2010. While a realistic representation of vegetation positively influences the simulation of evaporation and its potential predictability, a positive impact on 2 m temperature is of smaller magnitude, regionally confined and more pronounced in climatically extreme years. (orig.)

  16. Wind Turbine Generator Modeling and Simulation Where Rotational Speed is the Controlled Variable

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mihet-Popa, Lucian; Blaabjerg, Frede; Boldea, Ion

    2004-01-01

    the interaction between a wind turbine and the power system. The model is intended to simulate the behaviour of the wind turbine using induction generators both during normal operation. Sample simulation results for two induction generators (2/0.5 MW) validate the fundamental issues.......To optimise the power produced in a wind turbine, the speed of the turbine should vary with the wind speed. A simple control method is proposed that will allow an induction machine to run a turbine at its maximum power coefficient. Various types of power control strategies have been suggested...... for application in variable speed wind turbines. The usual strategy is to control the power or the torque acting on the wind turbine shafts. This paper presents an alternative control strategy, where the rotational speed is the controlled variable. The paper describes a model, which is being developed to simulate...

  17. THREE-DIMENSIONAL SIMULATIONS OF LONG DURATION GAMMA-RAY BURST JETS: TIMESCALES FROM VARIABLE ENGINES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    López-Cámara, D. [CONACYT—Instituto de Astronomía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Apdo. Postal 70-264, Cd. Universitaria, México DF 04510, México (Mexico); Lazzati, Davide [Department of Physics, Oregon State University, 301 Weniger Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331 (United States); Morsony, Brian J., E-mail: diego@astro.unam.mx [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, 4296 Stadium Drive, College Park, MD 20742-2421 (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Gamma-ray burst (GRB) light curves are characterized by marked variability, each showing unique properties. The origin of this variability, at least for a fraction of long GRBs, may be the result of an unsteady central engine. It is thus important to study the effects that an episodic central engine has on the jet propagation and, eventually, on the prompt emission within the collapsar scenario. Thus, in this study we follow the interaction of pulsed outflows with their progenitor stars with hydrodynamic numerical simulations in both two and three dimensions. We show that the propagation of unsteady jets is affected by the interaction with the progenitor material well after the break-out time, especially for jets with long quiescent times comparable to or larger than a second. We also show that this interaction can lead to an asymmetric behavior in which pulse durations and quiescent periods are systematically different. After the pulsed jets drill through the progenitor and the interstellar medium, we find that, on average, the quiescent epochs last longer than the pulses (even in simulations with symmetrical active and quiescent engine times). This could explain the asymmetry detected in the light curves of long quiescent time GRBs.

  18. Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makowski, David; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Bassu, Simona; Durand, Jean-Louis; Martre, Pierre; Adam, Myriam; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Baron, Chritian; hide

    2015-01-01

    Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex

  19. Quantifying uncertainty due to internal variability using high-resolution regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutmann, E. D.; Ikeda, K.; Deser, C.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Arnold, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    The uncertainty in future climate predictions is as large or larger than the mean climate change signal. As such, any predictions of future climate need to incorporate and quantify the sources of this uncertainty. One of the largest sources comes from the internal, chaotic, variability within the climate system itself. This variability has been approximated using the 30 ensemble members of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble. Here we examine the wet and dry end members of this ensemble for cool-season precipitation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains with a set of high-resolution regional climate model simulations. We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to simulate the periods 1990-2000, 2025-2035, and 2070-2080 on a 4km grid. These simulations show that the broad patterns of change depicted in CESM are inherited by the high-resolution simulations; however, the differences in the height and location of the mountains in the WRF simulation, relative to the CESM simulation, means that the location and magnitude of the precipitation changes are very different. We further show that high-resolution simulations with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research model (ICAR) predict a similar spatial pattern in the change signal as WRF for these ensemble members. We then use ICAR to examine the rest of the CESM Large Ensemble as well as the uncertainty in the regional climate model due to the choice of physics parameterizations.

  20. VS2DRTI: Simulating Heat and Reactive Solute Transport in Variably Saturated Porous Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healy, Richard W; Haile, Sosina S; Parkhurst, David L; Charlton, Scott R

    2018-01-29

    Variably saturated groundwater flow, heat transport, and solute transport are important processes in environmental phenomena, such as the natural evolution of water chemistry of aquifers and streams, the storage of radioactive waste in a geologic repository, the contamination of water resources from acid-rock drainage, and the geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide. Up to now, our ability to simulate these processes simultaneously with fully coupled reactive transport models has been limited to complex and often difficult-to-use models. To address the need for a simple and easy-to-use model, the VS2DRTI software package has been developed for simulating water flow, heat transport, and reactive solute transport through variably saturated porous media. The underlying numerical model, VS2DRT, was created by coupling the flow and transport capabilities of the VS2DT and VS2DH models with the equilibrium and kinetic reaction capabilities of PhreeqcRM. Flow capabilities include two-dimensional, constant-density, variably saturated flow; transport capabilities include both heat and multicomponent solute transport; and the reaction capabilities are a complete implementation of geochemical reactions of PHREEQC. The graphical user interface includes a preprocessor for building simulations and a postprocessor for visual display of simulation results. To demonstrate the simulation of multiple processes, the model is applied to a hypothetical example of injection of heated waste water to an aquifer with temperature-dependent cation exchange. VS2DRTI is freely available public domain software. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

  1. Valuation of large variable annuity portfolios: Monte Carlo simulation and synthetic datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gan Guojun

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Metamodeling techniques have recently been proposed to address the computational issues related to the valuation of large portfolios of variable annuity contracts. However, it is extremely diffcult, if not impossible, for researchers to obtain real datasets frominsurance companies in order to test their metamodeling techniques on such real datasets and publish the results in academic journals. To facilitate the development and dissemination of research related to the effcient valuation of large variable annuity portfolios, this paper creates a large synthetic portfolio of variable annuity contracts based on the properties of real portfolios of variable annuities and implements a simple Monte Carlo simulation engine for valuing the synthetic portfolio. In addition, this paper presents fair market values and Greeks for the synthetic portfolio of variable annuity contracts that are important quantities for managing the financial risks associated with variable annuities. The resulting datasets can be used by researchers to test and compare the performance of various metamodeling techniques.

  2. Influences of Appalachian orography on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability associated with the passage of hurricane Isabel by ensemble simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldaker, Guy; Liu, Liping; Lin, Yuh-Lang

    2017-12-01

    This study focuses on the heavy rainfall event associated with hurricane Isabel's (2003) passage over the Appalachian mountains of the eastern United States. Specifically, an ensemble consisting of two groups of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with and without topography, is performed to investigate the orographic influences on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability. In general, the simulated ensemble mean with full terrain is able to reproduce the key observed 24-h rainfall amount and distribution, while the flat-terrain mean lacks in this respect. In fact, 30-h rainfall amounts are reduced by 75% with the removal of topography. Rainfall variability is also significantly increased with the presence of orography. Further analysis shows that the complex interaction between the hurricane and terrain along with contributions from varied microphysics, cumulus parametrization, and planetary boundary layer schemes have a pronounced effect on rainfall and rainfall variability. This study follows closely with a previous study, but for a different TC case of Isabel (2003). It is an important sensitivity test for a different TC in a very different environment. This study reveals that the rainfall variability behaves similarly, even with different settings of the environment.

  3. Can co-activation reduce kinematic variability? A simulation study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Selen, L.P.J.; Beek, P.J.; van Dieen, J.H.

    2005-01-01

    Impedance modulation has been suggested as a means to suppress the effects of internal 'noise' on movement kinematics. We investigated this hypothesis in a neuro-musculo-skeletal model. A prerequisite is that the muscle model produces realistic force variability. We found that standard Hill-type

  4. Attributing uncertainty in streamflow simulations due to variable inputs via the Quantile Flow Deviation metric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoaib, Syed Abu; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish

    2018-06-01

    Every model to characterise a real world process is affected by uncertainty. Selecting a suitable model is a vital aspect of engineering planning and design. Observation or input errors make the prediction of modelled responses more uncertain. By way of a recently developed attribution metric, this study is aimed at developing a method for analysing variability in model inputs together with model structure variability to quantify their relative contributions in typical hydrological modelling applications. The Quantile Flow Deviation (QFD) metric is used to assess these alternate sources of uncertainty. The Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) precipitation data for four different Australian catchments is used to analyse the impact of spatial rainfall variability on simulated streamflow variability via the QFD. The QFD metric attributes the variability in flow ensembles to uncertainty associated with the selection of a model structure and input time series. For the case study catchments, the relative contribution of input uncertainty due to rainfall is higher than that due to potential evapotranspiration, and overall input uncertainty is significant compared to model structure and parameter uncertainty. Overall, this study investigates the propagation of input uncertainty in a daily streamflow modelling scenario and demonstrates how input errors manifest across different streamflow magnitudes.

  5. Variable dead time counters: 2. A computer simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hooton, B.W.; Lees, E.W.

    1980-09-01

    A computer model has been developed to give a pulse train which simulates that generated by a variable dead time counter (VDC) used in safeguards determination of Pu mass. The model is applied to two algorithms generally used for VDC analysis. It is used to determine their limitations at high counting rates and to investigate the effects of random neutrons from (α,n) reactions. Both algorithms are found to be deficient for use with masses of 240 Pu greater than 100g and one commonly used algorithm is shown, by use of the model and also by theory, to yield a result which is dependent on the random neutron intensity. (author)

  6. Simulating maize yield and bomass with spatial variability of soil field capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Liwang; Ahuja, Lajpat; Trout, Thomas; Nolan, Bernard T.; Malone, Robert W.

    2015-01-01

    Spatial variability in field soil properties is a challenge for system modelers who use single representative values, such as means, for model inputs, rather than their distributions. In this study, the root zone water quality model (RZWQM2) was first calibrated for 4 yr of maize (Zea mays L.) data at six irrigation levels in northern Colorado and then used to study spatial variability of soil field capacity (FC) estimated in 96 plots on maize yield and biomass. The best results were obtained when the crop parameters were fitted along with FCs, with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 354 kg ha–1 for yield and 1202 kg ha–1 for biomass. When running the model using each of the 96 sets of field-estimated FC values, instead of calibrating FCs, the average simulated yield and biomass from the 96 runs were close to measured values with a RMSE of 376 kg ha–1 for yield and 1504 kg ha–1 for biomass. When an average of the 96 FC values for each soil layer was used, simulated yield and biomass were also acceptable with a RMSE of 438 kg ha–1 for yield and 1627 kg ha–1 for biomass. Therefore, when there are large numbers of FC measurements, an average value might be sufficient for model inputs. However, when the ranges of FC measurements were known for each soil layer, a sampled distribution of FCs using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) might be used for model inputs.

  7. Simulation of uranium transport with variable temperature and oxidation potential: The computer program THCC [Thermo-Hydro-Chemical Coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carnahan, C.L.

    1986-12-01

    A simulator of reactive chemical transport has been constructed with the capabilities of treating variable temperatures and variable oxidation potentials within a single simulation. Homogeneous and heterogeneous chemical reactions are simulated at temperature-dependent equilibrium, and changes of oxidation states of multivalent elements can be simulated during transport. Chemical mass action relations for formation of complexes in the fluid phase are included explicitly within the partial differential equations of transport, and a special algorithm greatly simplifies treatment of reversible precipitation of solid phases. This approach allows direct solution of the complete set of governing equations for concentrations of all aqueous species and solids affected simultaneously by chemical and physical processes. Results of example simulations of transport, along a temperature gradient, of uranium solution species under conditions of varying pH and oxidation potential and with reversible precipitation of uraninite and coffinite are presented. The examples illustrate how inclusion of variable temperature and oxidation potential in numerical simulators can enhance understanding of the chemical mechanisms affecting migration of multivalent waste elements

  8. Quantifying the Effectiveness of Dose Individualization by Simulation for a Drug With Moderate Pharmacokinetic Variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liefaard, Lia; Chen, Chao

    2015-10-01

    Dose individualization can reduce variability in exposure. The objective of this work was to quantify, through pharmacokinetic (PK) simulation, the potential for reducing the variability in exposure by dose individualization for a drug with moderate PK variability between subjects and between occasions within a subject, and a narrow therapeutic window. Using a population PK model that includes between-subject and between-occasion variability for apparent clearance, individual PK profiles in a trial of 300 subjects after a test dose were simulated. From the simulated data, datasets were created mimicking various sampling regimens (from single predose sample to full profile samples over 12 hours) on 1 or more occasions (1, 2, 3, 5, or 10 visits). Using these datasets, individual apparent clearance values were estimated, which were then used to calculate an individualized dose for a predefined target area under the concentration-time curve (AUC), based on the available formulation strengths. The proportion of people whose mean AUC was within a predefined therapeutic AUC range was calculated for the test (before) and the individualized dose (after), and compared between the different sampling scenarios. The maximum increase in proportion of subjects with an AUC within the range was 20%. To achieve this benefit, PK samples over 4 hours from 100 dosing occasions were required. As a result of the dose adjustment, the AUC of 7.3% of the subjects moved from inside the therapeutic range to outside of the range. This work shows how modeling and simulation can help assess the benefit and risk of dose individualization for a compound with variability between subjects and between occasions. The framework can be applied to similar situations with a defined set of conditions (eg, therapeutic window, tablet strengths, and PK and/or pharmacodynamic sampling scheme) to inform dose change and to assess the utility of dose individualization against certain success criteria.

  9. Multiple Regression and Mediator Variables can be used to Avoid Double Counting when Economic Values are Derived using Stochastic Herd Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Søren; Ettema, Jehan Frans; Hjortø, Line

    Multiple regression and model building with mediator variables was addressed to avoid double counting when economic values are estimated from data simulated with herd simulation modeling (using the SimHerd model). The simulated incidence of metritis was analyzed statistically as the independent v...... in multiparous cows. The merit of using this approach was demonstrated since the economic value of metritis was estimated to be 81% higher when no mediator variables were included in the multiple regression analysis......Multiple regression and model building with mediator variables was addressed to avoid double counting when economic values are estimated from data simulated with herd simulation modeling (using the SimHerd model). The simulated incidence of metritis was analyzed statistically as the independent...... variable, while using the traits representing the direct effects of metritis on yield, fertility and occurrence of other diseases as mediator variables. The economic value of metritis was estimated to be €78 per 100 cow-years for each 1% increase of metritis in the period of 1-100 days in milk...

  10. Perspectives for short timescale variability studies with Gaia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelens, M.; Eyer, L.; Mowlavi, N.; Lecoeur-Taïbi, I.; Rimoldini, L.; Blanco-Cuaresma, S.; Palaversa, L.; Süveges, M.; Charnas, J.; Wevers, T.

    2017-12-01

    We assess the potential of Gaia for detecting and characterizing short timescale variables, i.e. at timescale from a few seconds to a dozen hours, through extensive light-curve simulations for various short timescale variable types, including both periodic and non-periodic variability. We evidence that the variogram analysis applied to Gaia photometry should enable to detect such fast variability phenomena, down to amplitudes of a few millimagnitudes, with limited contamination from longer timescale variables or constant sources. This approach also gives valuable information on the typical timescale(s) of the considered variation, which could complement results of classical period search methods, and help prepare ground-based follow-up of the Gaia short timescale candidates.

  11. GRMHD Simulations of Visibility Amplitude Variability for Event Horizon Telescope Images of Sgr A*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medeiros, Lia; Chan, Chi-kwan; Özel, Feryal; Psaltis, Dimitrios; Kim, Junhan; Marrone, Daniel P.; Sa¸dowski, Aleksander

    2018-04-01

    The Event Horizon Telescope will generate horizon scale images of the black hole in the center of the Milky Way, Sgr A*. Image reconstruction using interferometric visibilities rests on the assumption of a stationary image. We explore the limitations of this assumption using high-cadence disk- and jet-dominated GRMHD simulations of Sgr A*. We also employ analytic models that capture the basic characteristics of the images to understand the origin of the variability in the simulated visibility amplitudes. We find that, in all simulations, the visibility amplitudes for baselines oriented parallel and perpendicular to the spin axis of the black hole follow general trends that do not depend strongly on accretion-flow properties. This suggests that fitting Event Horizon Telescope observations with simple geometric models may lead to a reasonably accurate determination of the orientation of the black hole on the plane of the sky. However, in the disk-dominated models, the locations and depths of the minima in the visibility amplitudes are highly variable and are not related simply to the size of the black hole shadow. This suggests that using time-independent models to infer additional black hole parameters, such as the shadow size or the spin magnitude, will be severely affected by the variability of the accretion flow.

  12. Post-processing of Monte Carlo simulations for rapid BNCT source optimization studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleuel, D.L.; Chu, W.T.; Donahue, R.J.; Ludewigt, B.A.; Vujic, J.

    2000-01-01

    A great advantage of some neutron sources, such as accelerator-produced sources, is that they can be tuned to produce different spectra. Unfortunately, optimization studies are often time-consuming and difficult, as they require a lengthy Monte Carlo simulation for each source. When multiple characteristics, such as energy, angle, and spatial distribution of a neutron beam are allowed to vary, an overwhelming number of simulations may be required. Many optimization studies, therefore, suffer from a small number of datapoints, restrictive treatment conditions, or poor statistics. By scoring pertinent information from every particle tally in a Monte Carlo simulation, then applying appropriate source variable weight factors in a post-processing algorithm, a single simulation can be used to model any number of multiple sources. Through this method, the response to a new source can be modeled in minutes or seconds, rather than hours or days, allowing for the analysis of truly variable source conditions of much greater resolution than is normally possible when a new simulation must be run for each datapoint in a study. This method has been benchmarked and used to recreate optimization studies in a small fraction of the time spent in the original studies

  13. Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G - I. Near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, Seung-Ki; Hense, Andreas [Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Legutke, Stephanie [Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Kwon, Won-Tae [Meteorological Research Inst., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-08-01

    The internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled atmosphere/ocean global climate model ECHO-G is analysed using near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure variables, and is compared with observations and other coupled climate model simulations. ECHO-G requires annual mean flux adjustments for heat and freshwater in order to simulate no significant climate drift for 1000 yr, but no flux adjustments for momentum. The ECHO-G control run captures well most aspects of the observed seasonal and annual climatology and of the interannual to decadal variability of the three variables. Model biases are very close to those in ECHAM4 (atmospheric component of ECHO-G) stand-alone integrations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature. A trend comparison between observed and modelled near-surface temperatures shows that the observed near-surface global warming is larger than internal variability produced by ECHO-G, supporting previous studies. The simulated global mean near-surface temperatures, however, show a 2-yr spectral peak which is linked with a strong biennial bias of energy in the El Nino Southern Oscillation signal. Consequently, the interannual variability (39 yr) is underestimated.

  14. Problems of variance reduction in the simulation of random variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lessi, O.

    1987-01-01

    The definition of the uniform linear generator is given and some of the mostly used tests to evaluate the uniformity and the independence of the obtained determinations are listed. The problem of calculating, through simulation, some moment W of a random variable function is taken into account. The Monte Carlo method enables the moment W to be estimated and the estimator variance to be obtained. Some techniques for the construction of other estimators of W with a reduced variance are introduced

  15. Identifying populations sensitive to environmental chemicals by simulating toxicokinetic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ring, Caroline L; Pearce, Robert G; Setzer, R Woodrow; Wetmore, Barbara A; Wambaugh, John F

    2017-09-01

    The thousands of chemicals present in the environment (USGAO, 2013) must be triaged to identify priority chemicals for human health risk research. Most chemicals have little of the toxicokinetic (TK) data that are necessary for relating exposures to tissue concentrations that are believed to be toxic. Ongoing efforts have collected limited, in vitro TK data for a few hundred chemicals. These data have been combined with biomonitoring data to estimate an approximate margin between potential hazard and exposure. The most "at risk" 95th percentile of adults have been identified from simulated populations that are generated either using standard "average" adult human parameters or very specific cohorts such as Northern Europeans. To better reflect the modern U.S. population, we developed a population simulation using physiologies based on distributions of demographic and anthropometric quantities from the most recent U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data. This allowed incorporation of inter-individual variability, including variability across relevant demographic subgroups. Variability was analyzed with a Monte Carlo approach that accounted for the correlation structure in physiological parameters. To identify portions of the U.S. population that are more at risk for specific chemicals, physiologic variability was incorporated within an open-source high-throughput (HT) TK modeling framework. We prioritized 50 chemicals based on estimates of both potential hazard and exposure. Potential hazard was estimated from in vitro HT screening assays (i.e., the Tox21 and ToxCast programs). Bioactive in vitro concentrations were extrapolated to doses that produce equivalent concentrations in body tissues using a reverse dosimetry approach in which generic TK models are parameterized with: 1) chemical-specific parameters derived from in vitro measurements and predicted from chemical structure; and 2) with

  16. Conventional QT Variability Measurement vs. Template Matching Techniques: Comparison of Performance Using Simulated and Real ECG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumert, Mathias; Starc, Vito; Porta, Alberto

    2012-01-01

    Increased beat-to-beat variability in the QT interval (QTV) of ECG has been associated with increased risk for sudden cardiac death, but its measurement is technically challenging and currently not standardized. The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of commonly used beat-to-beat QT interval measurement algorithms. Three different methods (conventional, template stretching and template time shifting) were subjected to simulated data featuring typical ECG recording issues (broadband noise, baseline wander, amplitude modulation) and real short-term ECG of patients before and after infusion of sotalol, a QT interval prolonging drug. Among the three algorithms, the conventional algorithm was most susceptible to noise whereas the template time shifting algorithm showed superior overall performance on simulated and real ECG. None of the algorithms was able to detect increased beat-to-beat QT interval variability after sotalol infusion despite marked prolongation of the average QT interval. The QTV estimates of all three algorithms were inversely correlated with the amplitude of the T wave. In conclusion, template matching algorithms, in particular the time shifting algorithm, are recommended for beat-to-beat variability measurement of QT interval in body surface ECG. Recording noise, T wave amplitude and the beat-rejection strategy are important factors of QTV measurement and require further investigation. PMID:22860030

  17. Conventional QT variability measurement vs. template matching techniques: comparison of performance using simulated and real ECG.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathias Baumert

    Full Text Available Increased beat-to-beat variability in the QT interval (QTV of ECG has been associated with increased risk for sudden cardiac death, but its measurement is technically challenging and currently not standardized. The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of commonly used beat-to-beat QT interval measurement algorithms. Three different methods (conventional, template stretching and template time shifting were subjected to simulated data featuring typical ECG recording issues (broadband noise, baseline wander, amplitude modulation and real short-term ECG of patients before and after infusion of sotalol, a QT interval prolonging drug. Among the three algorithms, the conventional algorithm was most susceptible to noise whereas the template time shifting algorithm showed superior overall performance on simulated and real ECG. None of the algorithms was able to detect increased beat-to-beat QT interval variability after sotalol infusion despite marked prolongation of the average QT interval. The QTV estimates of all three algorithms were inversely correlated with the amplitude of the T wave. In conclusion, template matching algorithms, in particular the time shifting algorithm, are recommended for beat-to-beat variability measurement of QT interval in body surface ECG. Recording noise, T wave amplitude and the beat-rejection strategy are important factors of QTV measurement and require further investigation.

  18. A simulation-based analysis of variable flow pumping in ground source heat pump systems with different types of borehole heat exchangers: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarrella, Angelo; Emmi, Giuseppe; De Carli, Michele

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • The work focuses on the variable flow in ground source heat pump systems. • The constant and variable speed circulation pumps in the ground loop are compared. • The constant temperature difference control across the heat pump is studied. • The variable flow affects the energy performance of the heat pump. • The constant temperature difference control offers an attractive energy saving. - Abstract: A simulation model of ground source heat pump systems has been used to investigate to what extent a variable flow of the heat-carrier fluid of the ground loop affects the energy efficiency of the entire system. The model contemporaneously considers the borehole heat exchangers, the heat pump, the building load, and the control strategies for the circulation pumps of the ground loop. A constant speed of the circulation pumps of the ground loop was compared with a variable flow controlled by means of a constant temperature difference across the heat pump on the ground side considering the load profile of an office building located in North Italy. The analysis was carried out for a single U-tube, double U-tube and coaxial pipe heat exchangers. The control strategies adopted to manage the flow rate of the heat-carrier fluid of the ground loop affect both the heat exchange rate of the borehole field and the heat pump’s long-term energy efficiency. The simulations show considerable differences in the system’s seasonal energy efficiency. The constant speed of the circulation pumps leads to the best results as far as the heat pump’s energy performance was concerned, but this advantage was lost because of the greater amount of electrical energy used by the circulation pumps; this, of course, affects the energy efficiency of the entire system. The optimal solution appears then to be a constant temperature difference in the heat-carrier fluid across the heat pump.

  19. A Monte Carlo simulation study comparing linear regression, beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression at recovering average difference measures in a two sample design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meaney, Christopher; Moineddin, Rahim

    2014-01-24

    In biomedical research, response variables are often encountered which have bounded support on the open unit interval--(0,1). Traditionally, researchers have attempted to estimate covariate effects on these types of response data using linear regression. Alternative modelling strategies may include: beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. This study employs a Monte Carlo simulation design to compare the statistical properties of the linear regression model to that of the more novel beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. In the Monte Carlo experiment we assume a simple two sample design. We assume observations are realizations of independent draws from their respective probability models. The randomly simulated draws from the various probability models are chosen to emulate average proportion/percentage/rate differences of pre-specified magnitudes. Following simulation of the experimental data we estimate average proportion/percentage/rate differences. We compare the estimators in terms of bias, variance, type-1 error and power. Estimates of Monte Carlo error associated with these quantities are provided. If response data are beta distributed with constant dispersion parameters across the two samples, then all models are unbiased and have reasonable type-1 error rates and power profiles. If the response data in the two samples have different dispersion parameters, then the simple beta regression model is biased. When the sample size is small (N0 = N1 = 25) linear regression has superior type-1 error rates compared to the other models. Small sample type-1 error rates can be improved in beta regression models using bias correction/reduction methods. In the power experiments, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression models have slightly elevated power compared to linear regression models. Similar results were observed if the

  20. Effects of the Temporal Variability of Evapotranspiration on Hydrologic Simulation in Central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, Andrew M.

    2007-01-01

    The transient response of a hydrologic system can be of concern to water-resource managers, because it is often extreme relatively short-lived events, such as floods or droughts, that profoundly influence the management of the resource. The water available to a hydrologic system for stream flow and aquifer recharge is determined by the difference of precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET). As such, temporal variations in precipitation and ET determine the degree of influence each has on the transient response of the hydrologic system. Meteorological, ET, and hydrologic data collected from 1993 to 2003 and spanning 1- to 3 2/3 -year periods were used to develop a hydrologic model for each of five sites in central Florida. The sensitivities of simulated water levels and flows to simple approximations of ET were quantified and the adequacy of each ET approximation was assessed. ET was approximated by computing potential ET, using the Hargreaves and Priestley-Taylor equations, and applying vegetation coefficients to adjust the potential ET values to actual ET. The Hargreaves and Priestley-Taylor ET approximations were used in the calibrated hydrologic models while leaving all other model characteristics and parameter values unchanged. Two primary factors that influence how the temporal variability of ET affects hydrologic simulation in central Florida were identified: (1) stochastic character of precipitation and ET and (2) the ability of the local hydrologic system to attenuate variability in input stresses. Differences in the stochastic character of precipitation and ET, both the central location and spread of the data, result in substantial influence of precipitation on the quantity and timing of water available to the hydrologic system and a relatively small influence of ET. The temporal variability of ET was considerably less than that of precipitation at each site over a wide range of time scales (from daily to annual). However, when precipitation and ET are of

  1. Post-processing of Monte Carlo simulations for rapid BNCT source optimization studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleuel, D.L.; Chu, W.T.; Donahue, R.J.; Ludewigt, B.A.; Vujic, J.

    2000-01-01

    A great advantage of some neutron sources, such as accelerator-produced sources, is that they can be tuned to produce different spectra. Unfortunately, optimization studies are often time-consuming and difficult, as they require a lengthy Monte Carlo simulation for each source. When multiple characteristics, such as energy, angle, and spatial distribution of a neutron beam are allowed to vary, an overwhelming number of simulations may be required. Many optimization studies, therefore, suffer from a small number of data points, restrictive treatment conditions, or poor statistics. By scoring pertinent information from every particle tally in a Monte Carlo simulation, then applying appropriate source variable weight factors in a post-processing algorithm; a single simulation can be used to model any number of multiple sources. Through this method, the response to a new source can be modeled in minutes or seconds, rather than hours or days, allowing for the analysis of truly variable source conditions of much greater resolution than is normally possible when a new simulation must be run for each data point in a study. This method has been benchmarked and used to recreate optimization studies in a small fraction of the time spent in the original studies. (author)

  2. A fundamental study of a variable critical nozzle flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jea Hyung; Kim, Heuy Dong; Park, Kyung Am

    2003-01-01

    The mass flow rate of gas flow through critical nozzle depends on the nozzle supply conditions and the cross-sectional area at the nozzle throat. In order that the critical nozzle can be operated at a wide range of supply conditions, the nozzle throat diameter should be controlled to change the flow passage area. This can be achieved by means of a variable critical nozzle. In the present study, both experimental and computational works are performed to develop variable critical nozzle. A cone-cylinder with a diameter of d is inserted into conventional critical nozzle. It can move both upstream and downstream, thereby changing the cross-sectional area of the nozzle throat. Computational work using the axisymmetric, compressible Navier-Stokes equations is carried out to simulate the variable critical nozzle flow. An experiment is performed to measure the mass flow rate through variable critical nozzle. The present computational results are in close agreement with measured ones. The boundary layer displacement and momentum thickness are given as a function of Reynolds number. An empirical equation is obtained to predict the discharge coefficient of variable critical nozzle

  3. Modeling and Simulation of Variable Mass, Flexible Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobbe, Patrick A.; Matras, Alex L.; Wilson, Heath E.

    2009-01-01

    distribution of mass in the fuel tank or Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) case for various propellant levels. Based on the mass consumed by the liquid engine or SRB, the appropriate propellant model is coupled with the dry structure model for the stage. Then using vehicle configuration data, the integrated vehicle model is assembled and operated on by the constant system shape functions. The system mode shapes and frequencies can then be computed from the resulting generalized mass and stiffness matrices for that mass configuration. The rigid body mass properties of the vehicle are derived from the integrated vehicle model. The coupling terms between the vehicle rigid body motion and elastic deformation are also updated from the constant system shape functions and the integrated vehicle model. This approach was first used to analyze variable mass spinning beams and then prototyped into a generic dynamics simulation engine. The resulting code was tested against Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV-)class problems worked in the TREETOPS simulation package and by Wilson [2]. The Ares I System Integration Laboratory (SIL) is currently being developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to test vehicle avionics hardware and software in a hardware-in-the-loop (HWIL) environment and certify that the integrated system is prepared for flight. The Ares I SIL utilizes the Ares Real-Time Environment for Modeling, Integration, and Simulation (ARTEMIS) tool to simulate the launch vehicle and stimulate avionics hardware. Due to the presence of vehicle control system filters and the thrust oscillation suppression system, which are tuned to the structural characteristics of the vehicle, ARTEMIS must incorporate accurate structural models of the Ares I launch vehicle. The ARTEMIS core dynamics simulation models the highly coupled nature of the vehicle flexible body dynamics, propellant slosh, and vehicle nozzle inertia effects combined with mass and flexible body properties that vary significant with time

  4. Flicker study on variable speed wind turbines with doubly fed induction generators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Tao; Chen, Zhe; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2005-01-01

    to a conclusion that the factors mentioned above have different influences on flicker emission compared with that in the case of the fixed speed wind turbine. Flicker mitigation is realized by output reactive power control of the variable speed wind turbine with doubly fed induction generator. Simulation results...... show the wind turbine output reactive power control provides an effective means for flicker mitigation regardless of mean wind speed, turbulence intensity and short circuit capacity ratio.......Grid connected wind turbines may produce flicker during continuous operation. This paper presents a simulation model of a MW-level variable speed wind turbine with a doubly fed induction generator developed in the simulation tool of PSCAD/EMTDC. Flicker emission of variable speed wind turbines...

  5. Variability in the Use of Simulation for Procedural Training in Radiology Residency: Opportunities for Improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matalon, Shanna A; Chikarmane, Sona A; Yeh, Eren D; Smith, Stacy E; Mayo-Smith, William W; Giess, Catherine S

    2018-03-19

    Increased attention to quality and safety has led to a re-evaluation of the classic apprenticeship model for procedural training. Many have proposed simulation as a supplementary teaching tool. The purpose of this study was to assess radiology resident exposure to procedural training and procedural simulation. An IRB-exempt online survey was distributed to current radiology residents in the United States by e-mail. Survey results were summarized using frequency and percentages. Chi-square tests were used for statistical analysis where appropriate. A total of 353 current residents completed the survey. 37% (n = 129/353) of respondents had never used procedure simulation. Of the residents who had used simulation, most did not do so until after having already performed procedures on patients (59%, n = 132/223). The presence of a dedicated simulation center was reported by over half of residents (56%, n = 196/353) and was associated with prior simulation experience (P = 0.007). Residents who had not had procedural simulation were somewhat likely or highly likely (3 and 4 on a 4-point Likert-scale) to participate if it were available (81%, n = 104/129). Simulation training was associated with higher comfort levels in performing procedures (P simulation training is associated with higher comfort levels when performing procedures, there is variable use in radiology resident training and its use is not currently optimized. Given the increased emphasis on patient safety, these results suggest the need to increase procedural simulation use during residency, including an earlier introduction to simulation before patient exposure. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. A variable hard sphere-based phenomenological inelastic collision model for rarefied gas flow simulations by the direct simulation Monte Carlo method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prasanth, P S; Kakkassery, Jose K; Vijayakumar, R, E-mail: y3df07@nitc.ac.in, E-mail: josekkakkassery@nitc.ac.in, E-mail: vijay@nitc.ac.in [Department of Mechanical Engineering, National Institute of Technology Calicut, Kozhikode - 673 601, Kerala (India)

    2012-04-01

    A modified phenomenological model is constructed for the simulation of rarefied flows of polyatomic non-polar gas molecules by the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. This variable hard sphere-based model employs a constant rotational collision number, but all its collisions are inelastic in nature and at the same time the correct macroscopic relaxation rate is maintained. In equilibrium conditions, there is equi-partition of energy between the rotational and translational modes and it satisfies the principle of reciprocity or detailed balancing. The present model is applicable for moderate temperatures at which the molecules are in their vibrational ground state. For verification, the model is applied to the DSMC simulations of the translational and rotational energy distributions in nitrogen gas at equilibrium and the results are compared with their corresponding Maxwellian distributions. Next, the Couette flow, the temperature jump and the Rayleigh flow are simulated; the viscosity and thermal conductivity coefficients of nitrogen are numerically estimated and compared with experimentally measured values. The model is further applied to the simulation of the rotational relaxation of nitrogen through low- and high-Mach-number normal shock waves in a novel way. In all cases, the results are found to be in good agreement with theoretically expected and experimentally observed values. It is concluded that the inelastic collision of polyatomic molecules can be predicted well by employing the constructed variable hard sphere (VHS)-based collision model.

  7. Pseudo-transient Continuation Based Variable Relaxation Solve in Nonlinear Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Jin

    2009-01-01

    Efficient and robust Variable Relaxation Solver, based on pseudo-transient continuation, is developed to solve nonlinear anisotropic thermal conduction arising from fusion plasma simulations. By adding first and/or second order artificial time derivatives to the system, this type of method advances the resulting time-dependent nonlinear PDEs to steady state, which is the solution to be sought. In this process, only the stiffness matrix itself is involved so that the numerical complexity and errors can be greatly reduced. In fact, this work is an extension of integrating efficient linear elliptic solvers for fusion simulation on Cray XIE. Two schemes are derived in this work, first and second order Variable Relaxations. Four factors are observed to be critical for efficiency and preservation of solution's symmetric structure arising from periodic boundary condition: refining meshes in different coordinate directions, initializing nonlinear process, varying time steps in both temporal and spatial directions, and accurately generating nonlinear stiffness matrix. First finer mesh scale should be taken in strong transport direction; Next the system is carefully initialized by the solution with linear conductivity; Third, time step and relaxation factor are vertex-based varied and optimized at each time step; Finally, the nonlinear stiffness matrix is updated by just scaling corresponding linear one with the vector generated from nonlinear thermal conductivity.

  8. Simulation of the Impact of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in the Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bomblies, A.; Eltahir, E.; Duchemin, J.

    2007-12-01

    A coupled hydrology and entomology model for simulation of malaria transmission and malaria transmitting mosquito population dynamics is presented. Model development and validation is done using field data and observations collected at Banizoumbou and Zindarou, Niger spanning three wet seasons, from 2005 through 2007. The primary model objective is the accurate determination of climate variability effects on village scale malaria transmission. Malaria transmission dependence on climate variables is highly nonlinear and complex. Temperature and humidity affect mosquito longevity, temperature controls parasite development rates in the mosquito as well as subadult mosquito development rates, and precipitation determines the formation and persistence of adequate breeding pools. Moreover, unsaturated zone hydrology influences overland flow, and climate controlled evapotranspiration rates and root zone uptake therefore also influence breeding pool formation. High resolution distributed hydrologic simulation allows representation of the small-scale ephemeral pools that constitute the primary habitat of Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes, the dominant malaria vectors in the Niger Sahel. Remotely sensed soil type, vegetation type, and microtopography rasters are used to assign the distributed parameter fields for simulation of the land surface hydrologic response to precipitation and runoff generation. Predicted runoff from each cell flows overland and into topographic depressions, with explicit representation of infiltration and evapotranspiration. The model's entomology component interacts with simulated pools. Subadult (aquatic stage) mosquito breeding is simulated in the pools, and water temperature dependent stage advancement rates regulate adult mosquito emergence into the model domain. Once emerged, adult mosquitoes are tracked as independent individual agents that interact with their immediate environment. Attributes relevant to malaria transmission such as gonotrophic

  9. Comparative performance of different stochastic methods to simulate drug exposure and variability in a population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Vincent H; Kabbara, Samer

    2006-10-01

    Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs) are increasingly being used to predict the pharmacokinetic variability of antimicrobials in a population. However, various MCS approaches may differ in the accuracy of the predictions. We compared the performance of 3 different MCS approaches using a data set with known parameter values and dispersion. Ten concentration-time profiles were randomly generated and used to determine the best-fit parameter estimates. Three MCS methods were subsequently used to simulate the AUC(0-infinity) of the population, using the central tendency and dispersion of the following in the subject sample: 1) K and V; 2) clearance and V; 3) AUC(0-infinity). In each scenario, 10000 subject simulations were performed. Compared to true AUC(0-infinity) of the population, mean biases by various methods were 1) 58.4, 2) 380.7, and 3) 12.5 mg h L(-1), respectively. Our results suggest that the most realistic MCS approach appeared to be based on the variability of AUC(0-infinity) in the subject sample.

  10. Climatology and internal variability in a 1000-year control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, S.K.; Hense, A. [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Legutke, S.; Kwon, W.T. [Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul (Korea). Meteorological Research Inst.

    2004-03-01

    The climatology and internal variability in a 1000-year control simulation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHO-G are analyzed and compared with observations and other coupled climate model simulations. ECHO-G requires annual mean flux corrections for heat and freshwater in order to simulate no climate drift for 1000 years, but no flux corrections for momentum. The ECHO-G control run captures well most aspects of the observed seasonal and annual climatology and of the interannual to decadal variability. Model biases are very close to those in ECHAM4 stand-alone integrations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature. A trend comparison between observed and modeled near surface temperatures shows that the observed global warming at near surface level is beyond the range of internal variability produced by ECHO-G. The simulated global mean near surface temperatures, however, show a two-year spectral peak which is linked with a strong biennial bias of energy in the ENSO signal. Consequently, the interannual variability (3-9 years) is underestimated. The overall ENSO structure such as the tropical SST climate and its seasonal cycle, a single ITCZ in the eastern tropical Pacific, and the ENSO phase-locking to the annual cycle are simulated reasonably well by ECHO-G. However, the amplitude of SST variability is overestimated in the eastern equatorial pacific and the observed westward propagation of zonal wind stress over the equatorial pacific is not captured by the model. ENSO-related teleconnection patterns of near surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure are reproduced realistically. The station-based NAO index in the model exhibits a 'white' noise spectrum similar to the observed and the NAO-related patterns of near surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure are also simulated successfully. However, the model overestimates the additional warming over the north pacific in the high index

  11. Intraindividual Variability in Basic Reaction Time Predicts Middle-Aged and Older Pilots’ Flight Simulator Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Objectives. Intraindividual variability (IIV) is negatively associated with cognitive test performance and is positively associated with age and some neurological disorders. We aimed to extend these findings to a real-world task, flight simulator performance. We hypothesized that IIV predicts poorer initial flight performance and increased rate of decline in performance among middle-aged and older pilots. Method. Two-hundred and thirty-six pilots (40–69 years) completed annual assessments comprising a cognitive battery and two 75-min simulated flights in a flight simulator. Basic and complex IIV composite variables were created from measures of basic reaction time and shifting and divided attention tasks. Flight simulator performance was characterized by an overall summary score and scores on communication, emergencies, approach, and traffic avoidance components. Results. Although basic IIV did not predict rate of decline in flight performance, it had a negative association with initial performance for most flight measures. After taking into account processing speed, basic IIV explained an additional 8%–12% of the negative age effect on initial flight performance. Discussion. IIV plays an important role in real-world tasks and is another aspect of cognition that underlies age-related differences in cognitive performance. PMID:23052365

  12. Intraindividual variability in basic reaction time predicts middle-aged and older pilots' flight simulator performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Quinn; Taylor, Joy; Heraldez, Daniel; Noda, Art; Lazzeroni, Laura C; Yesavage, Jerome

    2013-07-01

    Intraindividual variability (IIV) is negatively associated with cognitive test performance and is positively associated with age and some neurological disorders. We aimed to extend these findings to a real-world task, flight simulator performance. We hypothesized that IIV predicts poorer initial flight performance and increased rate of decline in performance among middle-aged and older pilots. Two-hundred and thirty-six pilots (40-69 years) completed annual assessments comprising a cognitive battery and two 75-min simulated flights in a flight simulator. Basic and complex IIV composite variables were created from measures of basic reaction time and shifting and divided attention tasks. Flight simulator performance was characterized by an overall summary score and scores on communication, emergencies, approach, and traffic avoidance components. Although basic IIV did not predict rate of decline in flight performance, it had a negative association with initial performance for most flight measures. After taking into account processing speed, basic IIV explained an additional 8%-12% of the negative age effect on initial flight performance. IIV plays an important role in real-world tasks and is another aspect of cognition that underlies age-related differences in cognitive performance.

  13. Variables affecting simulated Be sputtering yields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Björkas, C., E-mail: carolina.bjorkas@helsinki.fi; Nordlund, K.

    2013-08-15

    Since beryllium is a strong candidate for the main plasma-facing material in future fusion reactors, its sputtering behaviour plays an important role in predicting the reactor’s life-time. Consensus about the actual sputtering yields has not yet been achieved, as observations are influenced by experimental method and/or studied sample. In this work, the beryllium sputtering due to deuterium and beryllium self-bombardment is analyzed using molecular dynamics simulations. The main methodological aspects that influence the outcome, such as flux and fluence of the bombardment, are highlighted, and it is shown that the simulated yields also depend on the sample structure and deuterium content.

  14. Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.

  15. Effect of weather data aggregation on regional crop simulation for different crops, production conditions, and response variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Bussel, Van L.G.J.; Enders, Andreas; Specka, Xenia; Sosa, Carmen; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Tao, Fulu; Constantin, Julie; Raynal, Helene; Teixeira, Edmar; Grosz, Balázs; Doro, Luca; Zhao, Zhigan; Nendel, Claas; Kiese, Ralf; Eckersten, Henrik; Haas, Edwin; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wang, Enli; Kuhnert, Matthias; Trombi, Giacomo; Moriondo, Marco; Bindi, Marco; Lewan, Elisabet; Bach, Michaela; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Rötter, Reimund; Roggero, Pier Paolo; Wallach, Daniel; Cammarano, Davide; Asseng, Senthold; Krauss, Gunther; Siebert, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    We assessed the weather data aggregation effect (DAE) on the simulation of cropping systems for different crops, response variables, and production conditions. Using 13 processbased crop models and the ensemble mean, we simulated 30 yr continuous cropping systems for 2 crops (winter wheat and

  16. Pseudo-transient Continuation Based Variable Relaxation Solve in Nonlinear Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin Chen

    2009-12-07

    Efficient and robust Variable Relaxation Solver, based on pseudo-transient continuation, is developed to solve nonlinear anisotropic thermal conduction arising from fusion plasma simulations. By adding first and/or second order artificial time derivatives to the system, this type of method advances the resulting time-dependent nonlinear PDEs to steady state, which is the solution to be sought. In this process, only the stiffness matrix itself is involved so that the numerical complexity and errors can be greatly reduced. In fact, this work is an extension of integrating efficient linear elliptic solvers for fusion simulation on Cray XIE. Two schemes are derived in this work, first and second order Variable Relaxations. Four factors are observed to be critical for efficiency and preservation of solution's symmetric structure arising from periodic boundary condition: refining meshes in different coordinate directions, initializing nonlinear process, varying time steps in both temporal and spatial directions, and accurately generating nonlinear stiffness matrix. First finer mesh scale should be taken in strong transport direction; Next the system is carefully initialized by the solution with linear conductivity; Third, time step and relaxation factor are vertex-based varied and optimized at each time step; Finally, the nonlinear stiffness matrix is updated by just scaling corresponding linear one with the vector generated from nonlinear thermal conductivity.

  17. Climate SPHINX: High-resolution present-day and future climate simulations with an improved representation of small-scale variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Subramanian, Aneesh; Weisheimer, Antje; Christensen, Hannah; Juricke, Stephan; Palmer, Tim

    2016-04-01

    The PRACE Climate SPHINX project investigates the sensitivity of climate simulations to model resolution and stochastic parameterization. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in 30-years climate integrations as a function of model resolution (from 80km up to 16km for the atmosphere). The experiments include more than 70 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), using RCP8.5 CMIP5 forcing. A total amount of 20 million core hours will be used at end of the project (March 2016) and about 150 TBytes of post-processed data will be available to the climate community. Preliminary results show a clear improvement in the representation of climate variability over the Euro-Atlantic following resolution increase. More specifically, the well-known atmospheric blocking negative bias over Europe is definitely resolved. High resolution runs also show improved fidelity in representation of tropical variability - such as the MJO and its propagation - over the low resolution simulations. It is shown that including stochastic parameterization in the low resolution runs help to improve some of the aspects of the MJO propagation further. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).

  18. Stochastic methods for uncertainty treatment of functional variables in computer codes: application to safety studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nanty, Simon

    2015-01-01

    This work relates to the framework of uncertainty quantification for numerical simulators, and more precisely studies two industrial applications linked to the safety studies of nuclear plants. These two applications have several common features. The first one is that the computer code inputs are functional and scalar variables, functional ones being dependent. The second feature is that the probability distribution of functional variables is known only through a sample of their realizations. The third feature, relative to only one of the two applications, is the high computational cost of the code, which limits the number of possible simulations. The main objective of this work was to propose a complete methodology for the uncertainty analysis of numerical simulators for the two considered cases. First, we have proposed a methodology to quantify the uncertainties of dependent functional random variables from a sample of their realizations. This methodology enables to both model the dependency between variables and their link to another variable, called co-variate, which could be, for instance, the output of the considered code. Then, we have developed an adaptation of a visualization tool for functional data, which enables to simultaneously visualize the uncertainties and features of dependent functional variables. Second, a method to perform the global sensitivity analysis of the codes used in the two studied cases has been proposed. In the case of a computationally demanding code, the direct use of quantitative global sensitivity analysis methods is intractable. To overcome this issue, the retained solution consists in building a surrogate model or meta model, a fast-running model approximating the computationally expensive code. An optimized uniform sampling strategy for scalar and functional variables has been developed to build a learning basis for the meta model. Finally, a new approximation approach for expensive codes with functional outputs has been

  19. Small-Area Estimation with Zero-Inflated Data – a Simulation Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krieg Sabine

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Many target variables in official statistics follow a semicontinuous distribution with a mixture of zeros and continuously distributed positive values. Such variables are called zero inflated. When reliable estimates for subpopulations with small sample sizes are required, model-based small-area estimators can be used, which improve the accuracy of the estimates by borrowing information from other subpopulations. In this article, three small-area estimators are investigated. The first estimator is the EBLUP, which can be considered the most common small-area estimator and is based on a linear mixed model that assumes normal distributions. Therefore, the EBLUP is model misspecified in the case of zero-inflated variables. The other two small-area estimators are based on a model that takes zero inflation explicitly into account. Both the Bayesian and the frequentist approach are considered. These small-area estimators are compared with each other and with design-based estimation in a simulation study with zero-inflated target variables. Both a simulation with artificial data and a simulation with real data from the Dutch Household Budget Survey are carried out. It is found that the small-area estimators improve the accuracy compared to the design-based estimator. The amount of improvement strongly depends on the properties of the population and the subpopulations of interest.

  20. Development of variable width ribbon heating elements for liquid metal and gas-cooled fast breeder reactor fuel rod simulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCulloch, R.W.; Lovell, R.T.; Post, D.W.; Snyder, S.D.

    1980-01-01

    Variable width ribbon heating elements have been fabricated which provide a chopped cosine, variable heat flux profile for fuel rod simulators used in test loops by the Breeder Reactor Program Thermal Hydraulic Out-of-Reactor Safety test facility and the Gas-Cooled Fast Breeder Reactor Core Flow Test Loop. Thermal, mechanical, and electrical design considerations result in the derivation of an analytical expression for the ribbon contours. From this, the ribbons are machined and wound on numerically controlled equipment. Postprocessing and inspection results in a wound, variable width ribbon with the precise dimensional, electrical, and mechanical properties needed for use in fuel pin simulators

  1. Variability in soil-water retention properties and implications for physics-based simulation of landslide early warning criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Matthew A.; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Collins, Brian D.; Lu, Ning; Godt, Jonathan W.

    2018-01-01

    Rainfall-induced shallow landsliding is a persistent hazard to human life and property. Despite the observed connection between infiltration through the unsaturated zone and shallow landslide initiation, there is considerable uncertainty in how estimates of unsaturated soil-water retention properties affect slope stability assessment. This source of uncertainty is critical to evaluating the utility of physics-based hydrologic modeling as a tool for landslide early warning. We employ a numerical model of variably saturated groundwater flow parameterized with an ensemble of texture-, laboratory-, and field-based estimates of soil-water retention properties for an extensively monitored landslide-prone site in the San Francisco Bay Area, CA, USA. Simulations of soil-water content, pore-water pressure, and the resultant factor of safety show considerable variability across and within these different parameter estimation techniques. In particular, we demonstrate that with the same permeability structure imposed across all simulations, the variability in soil-water retention properties strongly influences predictions of positive pore-water pressure coincident with widespread shallow landsliding. We also find that the ensemble of soil-water retention properties imposes an order-of-magnitude and nearly two-fold variability in seasonal and event-scale landslide susceptibility, respectively. Despite the reduced factor of safety uncertainty during wet conditions, parameters that control the dry end of the soil-water retention function markedly impact the ability of a hydrologic model to capture soil-water content dynamics observed in the field. These results suggest that variability in soil-water retention properties should be considered for objective physics-based simulation of landslide early warning criteria.

  2. Simulating Spatial Variability of Fluvial Sediment Fluxes Within the Magdalena Drainage Basin, Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettner, A. J.; Syvitski, J. P.; Restrepo, J. D.

    2008-12-01

    This study explores the application of an empirical sediment flux model BQART, to simulate long-term sediment fluxes of major tributaries of a river system based on a limited number of input parameters. We validate model results against data of the 1612 km long Magdalena River, Colombia, South America, which is well monitored. The Magdalena River, draining a hinterland area of 257,438 km2, of which the majority lies in the Andes before reaching the Atlantic coast, is known for its high sediment yield, 560 t kg- 2 yr-1; higher than nearby South American rivers like the Amazon or the Orinoco River. Sediment fluxes of 32 tributary basins of the Magdalena River were simulated based on the following controlling factors: geomorphic influences (tributary-basin area and relief) derived from high-resolution Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data, tributary basin-integrated lithology based on GIS analysis of lithology data, 30year temperature data, and observed monthly mean discharge data records (varying in record length of 15 to 60 years). Preliminary results indicate that the simulated sediment flux of all 32 tributaries matches the observational record, given the observational error and the annual variability. These simulations did not take human influences into account yet, which often increases sediment fluxes by accelerating erosion, especially in steep mountainous area similar to the Magdalena. Simulations indicate that, with relatively few input parameters, mostly derived from remotely-sensed data or existing compiled GIS datasets, it is possible to predict: which tributaries in an arbitrary river drainage produce relatively high contributions to sediment yields, and where in the drainage basin you might expect conveyance loss.

  3. Multiple-source multiple-harmonic active vibration control of variable section cylindrical structures: A numerical study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jinxin; Chen, Xuefeng; Gao, Jiawei; Zhang, Xingwu

    2016-12-01

    Air vehicles, space vehicles and underwater vehicles, the cabins of which can be viewed as variable section cylindrical structures, have multiple rotational vibration sources (e.g., engines, propellers, compressors and motors), making the spectrum of noise multiple-harmonic. The suppression of such noise has been a focus of interests in the field of active vibration control (AVC). In this paper, a multiple-source multiple-harmonic (MSMH) active vibration suppression algorithm with feed-forward structure is proposed based on reference amplitude rectification and conjugate gradient method (CGM). An AVC simulation scheme called finite element model in-loop simulation (FEMILS) is also proposed for rapid algorithm verification. Numerical studies of AVC are conducted on a variable section cylindrical structure based on the proposed MSMH algorithm and FEMILS scheme. It can be seen from the numerical studies that: (1) the proposed MSMH algorithm can individually suppress each component of the multiple-harmonic noise with an unified and improved convergence rate; (2) the FEMILS scheme is convenient and straightforward for multiple-source simulations with an acceptable loop time. Moreover, the simulations have similar procedure to real-life control and can be easily extended to physical model platform.

  4. Study on computer-aided simulation procedure for multicomponent separating cascade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinoshita, Masahiro

    1982-11-01

    The present report reviews the author's study on the computer-aided simulation procedure for a multicomponent separating cascade. As a conclusion, two very powerful simulation procedures have been developed for cascades composed of separating elements whose separation factors are very large. They are applicable in cases where interstage flow rates are input variables for the calculation and stage separation factors are given either as constants or as functions of compositions of the up and down streams. As an application of the new procedure, a computer-aided simulation study has been performed for hydrogen isotope separating cascades by porous membrane method. A cascade system configuration is developed and pertinent design specifications are determined in an example case of the feed conditions and separation requirements. (author)

  5. Neuromorphic Implementation of Attractor Dynamics in a Two-Variable Winner-Take-All Circuit with NMDARs: A Simulation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Hongzhi; Wang, Da-Hui

    2017-01-01

    Neural networks configured with winner-take-all (WTA) competition and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR)-mediated synaptic dynamics are endowed with various dynamic characteristics of attractors underlying many cognitive functions. This paper presents a novel method for neuromorphic implementation of a two-variable WTA circuit with NMDARs aimed at implementing decision-making, working memory and hysteresis in visual perceptions. The method proposed is a dynamical system approach of circuit synthesis based on a biophysically plausible WTA model. Notably, slow and non-linear temporal dynamics of NMDAR-mediated synapses was generated. Circuit simulations in Cadence reproduced ramping neural activities observed in electrophysiological recordings in experiments of decision-making, the sustained activities observed in the prefrontal cortex during working memory, and classical hysteresis behavior during visual discrimination tasks. Furthermore, theoretical analysis of the dynamical system approach illuminated the underlying mechanisms of decision-making, memory capacity and hysteresis loops. The consistence between the circuit simulations and theoretical analysis demonstrated that the WTA circuit with NMDARs was able to capture the attractor dynamics underlying these cognitive functions. Their physical implementations as elementary modules are promising for assembly into integrated neuromorphic cognitive systems.

  6. Effectiveness of Variable Message Signs on Driving Behavior Based on a Driving Simulation Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuedong Yan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Variable message signs (VMSs, as one of the important ITS devices, provide real-time traffic information of road network to drivers in order to improve route choice and relieve the traffic congestion. In this study, the effectiveness of VMS on driving behavior was tested based on a driving simulation experiment. A road network with three levels of VMS location to route-diverging intersection and three types of VMS information format was designed in a high fidelity driving simulator platform. Fifty-two subjects who were classified by driver age, gender, and vocation successfully completed this experiment. The experimental results showed that driver characteristics, VMS location, and information format profoundly influence driving behaviors. Based on the research findings, it is suggested that VMS would be positioned between 150 m and 200 m upstream of the diverging point to balance the VMS effects on traffic safety and operation and the graphic information VMS format is better than the format with text massage only.

  7. Variable geometry Darrieus wind machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pytlinski, J. T.; Serrano, D.

    1983-08-01

    A variable geometry Darrieus wind machine is proposed. The lower attachment of the blades to the rotor can move freely up and down the axle allowing the blades of change shape during rotation. Experimental data for a 17 m. diameter Darrieus rotor and a theoretical model for multiple streamtube performance prediction were used to develop a computer simulation program for studying parameters that affect the machine's performance. This new variable geometry concept is described and interrelated with multiple streamtube theory through aerodynamic parameters. The computer simulation study shows that governor behavior of a Darrieus turbine can not be attained by a standard turbine operating within normally occurring rotational velocity limits. A second generation variable geometry Darrieus wind turbine which uses a telescopic blade is proposed as a potential improvement on the studied concept.

  8. Estimation of Finite Population Ratio When Other Auxiliary Variables are Available in the Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jehad Al-Jararha

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the population total $t_y,$ by using one or moreauxiliary variables, and the population ratio $\\theta_{xy}=t_y/t_x,$$t_x$ is the population total for the auxiliary variable $X$, for afinite population are heavily discussed in the literature. In thispaper, the idea of estimation the finite population ratio$\\theta_{xy}$ is extended to use the availability of auxiliaryvariable $Z$ in the study, such auxiliary variable  is not used inthe definition of the population ratio. This idea may be  supported by the fact that the variable $Z$  is highly correlated with the interest variable $Y$ than the correlation between the variables $X$ and $Y.$ The availability of such auxiliary variable can be used to improve the precision of the estimation of the population ratio.  To our knowledge, this idea is not discussed in the literature.  The bias, variance and the mean squares error  are given for our approach. Simulation from real data set,  the empirical relative bias and  the empirical relative mean squares error are computed for our approach and different estimators proposed in the literature  for estimating the population ratio $\\theta_{xy}.$ Analytically and the simulation results show that, by suitable choices, our approach gives negligible bias and has less mean squares error.  

  9. Modeling, Simulation and Control of Matrix Convert for Variable Speed Wind Turbine System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Alizadeh Moghadam

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents modeling, simulation and control of matrix converter (MC for variable speed wind turbine (VSWT system including permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG. At a given wind velocity, the power available from a wind turbine is a function of its shaft speed. In order to track maximum power, the MC adjusts the PMSG shaft speed.The proposed control system allowing independent control maximum power point tracking (MPPT of generator side and regulate reactive power of grid side for the operation of the VSWT system. The MPPT is implemented by a new control system. This control system is based on control of zero d-axis current (ZDC. The ZDC control can be realized by transfer the three-phase stator current in the stationary reference frame into d-and q-axis components in the synchronous reference frame. Also this paper is presented, a novel control strategy to regulate the reactive power supplied by a variable speed wind energy conversion system. This control strategy is based on voltage oriented control (VOC. The simulation results based on Simulink/Matlab software show that the controllers can extract maximum power and regulate reactive power under varying wind velocities.

  10. Study of the design variables for a wet-chamber gas meter prototype (MGCH)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patino, Carlos Hernando; Romero, Luis Said; Quiroga, Jabid

    2004-01-01

    This paper established the most important variables and their correlation that affect design and operation of wet-chamber gas meter (MGCH), focused on the gas pressure difference along the meter and the sealing-liquid level. In order to study variable behavior a simulation was carried out based on computational systems The mathematical model developed was built taking into account common features in present wet test gas meter as their internal configuration. Therefore, this work can be understood as a general analysis and its conclusions can be extended to whichever meter of this type. Software was developed to facilitate the analysis of the variables involved in this physical process; besides the drum sizing was modeling using CAD software. As a result of this investigation, theoretical basis were established for the analyzing and designing of a MGCH meter, as a previous phase to the construction and evaluation of the prototype. Uncertainty analysis of each variable implicates in this model was beyond the scope of this study

  11. Impact of including surface currents on simulation of Indian Ocean variability with the POAMA coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Mei; Wang, Guomin; Hendon, Harry H.; Alves, Oscar [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne (Australia)

    2011-04-15

    Impacts on the coupled variability of the Indo-Pacific by including the effects of surface currents on surface stress are explored in four extended integrations of an experimental version of the Bureau of Meteorology's coupled seasonal forecast model POAMA. The first pair of simulations differs only in their treatment of momentum coupling: one version includes the effects of surface currents on the surface stress computation and the other does not. The version that includes the effect of surface currents has less mean-state bias in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue but produces relatively weak coupled variability in the Tropics, especially that related to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The version without the effects of surface currents has greater bias in the Pacific cold tongue but stronger IOD and ENSO variability. In order to diagnose the role of changes in local coupling from changes in remote forcing by ENSO for causing changes in IOD variability, a second set of simulations is conducted where effects of surface currents are included only in the Indian Ocean and only in the Pacific Ocean. IOD variability is found to be equally reduced by inclusion of the local effects of surface currents in the Indian Ocean and by the reduction of ENSO variability as a result of including effects of surface currents in the Pacific. Some implications of these results for predictability of the IOD and its dependence on ENSO, and for ocean subsurface data assimilation are discussed. (orig.)

  12. A coupled approach for the three-dimensional simulation of pipe leakage in variably saturated soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peche, Aaron; Graf, Thomas; Fuchs, Lothar; Neuweiler, Insa

    2017-12-01

    In urban water pipe networks, pipe leakage may lead to subsurface contamination or to reduced waste water treatment efficiency. The quantification of pipe leakage is challenging due to inaccessibility and unknown hydraulic properties of the soil. A novel physically-based model for three-dimensional numerical simulation of pipe leakage in variably saturated soil is presented. We describe the newly implemented coupling between the pipe flow simulator HYSTEM-EXTRAN and the groundwater flow simulator OpenGeoSys and its validation. We further describe a novel upscaling of leakage using transfer functions derived from numerical simulations. This upscaling enables the simulation of numerous pipe defects with the benefit of reduced computation times. Finally, we investigate the response of leakage to different time-dependent pipe flow events and conclude that larger pipe flow volume and duration lead to larger leakage while the peak position in time has a small effect on leakage.

  13. Simulation skill of APCC set of global climate models for Asian summer monsoon rainfall variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, U. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Vikas

    2015-04-01

    The performance of 11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) global climate models (coupled and uncoupled both) in simulating the seasonal summer (June-August) monsoon rainfall variability over Asia (especially over India and East Asia) has been evaluated in detail using hind-cast data (3 months advance) generated from APCC which provides the regional climate information product services based on multi-model ensemble dynamical seasonal prediction systems. The skill of each global climate model over Asia was tested separately in detail for the period of 21 years (1983-2003), and simulated Asian summer monsoon rainfall (ASMR) has been verified using various statistical measures for Indian and East Asian land masses separately. The analysis found a large variation in spatial ASMR simulated with uncoupled model compared to coupled models (like Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Japan Meteorological Agency). The simulated ASMR in coupled model was closer to Climate Prediction Centre Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) compared to uncoupled models although the amount of ASMR was underestimated in both models. Analysis also found a high spread in simulated ASMR among the ensemble members (suggesting that the model's performance is highly dependent on its initial conditions). The correlation analysis between sea surface temperature (SST) and ASMR shows that that the coupled models are strongly associated with ASMR compared to the uncoupled models (suggesting that air-sea interaction is well cared in coupled models). The analysis of rainfall using various statistical measures suggests that the multi-model ensemble (MME) performed better compared to individual model and also separate study indicate that Indian and East Asian land masses are more useful compared to Asia monsoon rainfall as a whole. The results of various statistical measures like skill of multi-model ensemble, large spread

  14. Mechanisms for decadal scale variability in a simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medhaug, I.; Eldevik, T.; Furevik, T. [University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Langehaug, H.R. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Bentsen, M. [Uni Bjerknes Centre, Uni Research, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)

    2012-07-15

    Variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been analysed using a 600-year pre-industrial control simulation with the Bergen Climate Model. The typical AMOC variability has amplitudes of 1 Sverdrup (1 Sv = 10{sup 6} m{sup 3} s{sup -1}) and time scales of 40-70 years. The model is reproducing the observed dense water formation regions and has very realistic ocean transports and water mass distributions. The dense water produced in the Labrador Sea (1/3) and in the Nordic Seas, including the water entrained into the dense overflows across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR; 2/3), are the sources of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) forming the lower limb of the AMOC's northern overturning. The variability in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas convection is driven by decadal scale air-sea fluxes in the convective region that can be related to opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The Labrador Sea convection is directly linked to the variability in AMOC. Linkages between convection and water mass transformation in the Nordic Seas are more indirect. The Scandinavian Pattern, the third mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic, is a driver of the ocean's poleward heat transport (PHT), the overall constraint on northern water mass transformation. Increased PHT is both associated with an increased water mass exchange across the GSR, and a stronger AMOC. (orig.)

  15. NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF Q-SWITCHED Nd: YAG LASER WITH UNSTABLE RESONATOR AND OUTPUT VARIABLE REFLECTIVITY MIRROR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. N. Dubinkin

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with a method of numerical simulation of laser oscillation in the radially symmetric unstable resonator with an output variable reflectivity mirror (VRM. Research results of the VRM parameters influence on the spatial and energy properties of the laser radiation are obtained. Numerical simulation of laser oscillation in active and passive Q-switching and comparative analysis of the spatial and energy radiation characteristics is done for these modes.

  16. The Chandra Source Catalog: Source Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowak, Michael; Rots, A. H.; McCollough, M. L.; Primini, F. A.; Glotfelty, K. J.; Bonaventura, N. R.; Chen, J. C.; Davis, J. E.; Doe, S. M.; Evans, J. D.; Evans, I.; Fabbiano, G.; Galle, E. C.; Gibbs, D. G., II; Grier, J. D.; Hain, R.; Hall, D. M.; Harbo, P. N.; He, X.; Houck, J. C.; Karovska, M.; Lauer, J.; McDowell, J. C.; Miller, J. B.; Mitschang, A. W.; Morgan, D. L.; Nichols, J. S.; Plummer, D. A.; Refsdal, B. L.; Siemiginowska, A. L.; Sundheim, B. A.; Tibbetts, M. S.; van Stone, D. W.; Winkelman, S. L.; Zografou, P.

    2009-09-01

    The Chandra Source Catalog (CSC) contains fields of view that have been studied with individual, uninterrupted observations that span integration times ranging from 1 ksec to 160 ksec, and a large number of which have received (multiple) repeat observations days to years later. The CSC thus offers an unprecedented look at the variability of the X-ray sky over a broad range of time scales, and across a wide diversity of variable X-ray sources: stars in the local galactic neighborhood, galactic and extragalactic X-ray binaries, Active Galactic Nuclei, etc. Here we describe the methods used to identify and quantify source variability within a single observation, and the methods used to assess the variability of a source when detected in multiple, individual observations. Three tests are used to detect source variability within a single observation: the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and its variant, the Kuiper test, and a Bayesian approach originally suggested by Gregory and Loredo. The latter test not only provides an indicator of variability, but is also used to create a best estimate of the variable lightcurve shape. We assess the performance of these tests via simulation of statistically stationary, variable processes with arbitrary input power spectral densities (here we concentrate on results of red noise simulations) at variety of mean count rates and fractional root mean square variabilities relevant to CSC sources. We also assess the false positive rate via simulations of constant sources whose sole source of fluctuation is Poisson noise. We compare these simulations to an assessment of the variability found in real CSC sources, and estimate the variability sensitivities of the CSC.

  17. Hydrodynamic simulations of accretion disks in cataclysmic variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Masahito; Osaki, Yoji

    1990-01-01

    The tidal effects of secondary stars on accretion disks in cataclysmic variables are studied by two-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations. The time evolution of an accretion disk under a constant mass supply rate from the secondary is followed until it reaches a quasi-steady state. We have examined various cases of different mass ratios of binary systems. It is found that the accretion disk settles into a steady state of an elongated disk fixed in the rotating frame of the binary in a binary system with comparable masses of component stars. On the other hand, in the case of a low-mass secondary, the accretion disk develops a non-axisymmetric (eccentric) structure and finally settles into a periodically oscillating state in which a non-axisymmetric eccentric disk rotates in the opposite direction to the orbital motion of the binary in the rotating frame of the binary. The period of oscillation is a few percent longer than the orbital period of the binary, and it offers a natural explanation for the ''superhump'' periodicity of SU UMa stars. Our results thus confirm basically those of Whitehurst (1988, AAA 45.064.032) who discovered the tidal instability of an accretion disk in the case of a low-mass secondary. We then discuss the cause of the tidal instability. It is shown that the tidal instability of accretion disks is caused by a parametric resonance between particle orbits and an orbiting secondary star with a 1:3 period ratio. (author)

  18. Flicker Study on Variable Speed Wind Turbines with Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Wang, Yue

    2008-01-01

    capacity, grid impedance angle) are analyzed. Flicker mitigation is realized by output reactive power control of the variable speed wind turbines with PMSG. Simulation results show the output reactive power control is an effective measure to mitigate the flicker during continuous operation of grid......Grid connected wind turbines are fluctuating power sources that may produce flicker during continuous operation. This paper presents a simulation model of a MW-level variable speed wind turbines with a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) and a full-scale converter developed...... in the simulation tool of PSCAD/EMTDC. Flicker emission of this system is investigated during continuous operation. The dependence of flicker emission on wind characteristics (mean speed, turbulence intensity), 3p torque oscillations due to wind shear and tower shadow effects and grid conditions (short circuit...

  19. SALTSTONE VARIABILITY STUDY - MEASUREMENT OF POROSITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harbour, J; Vickie Williams, V; Tommy Edwards, T; Russell Eibling, R; Ray Schumacher, R

    2007-01-01

    made from either Modular Caustic Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) or Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) simulants in premix, the porosities averaged near 62 % with an uptake of water through hydration reactions equivalent to a water to cementitious materials ratio (w/cm) of 0.04. For a mix made from a Deliquification, Dissolution and Adjustment (DDA) simulant and premix, the porosity is slightly lower at 57 % with an uptake of water through hydration reactions equivalent to a w/cm ratio of 0.07. Data are presented which demonstrate that porosity is inversely related to the heat of hydration, a measure of the extent of the hydration reactions. Modeling of porosities from three of the statistically designed phases of the Saltstone Variability Study demonstrated that the data could be fit to a linear model with an R2 of 0.74 and no statistical evidence for a lack of fit. The model revealed that w/cm ratio plays a significant role in the total porosity with porosity increasing as the w/cm ratio increases. Other elements of the model include positive correlations with the free hydroxide ion concentration and the total nitrate plus nitrite ion concentration. For a series of mixes in which the composition of the salt solution remained constant (MCU baseline) the porosity increased from ∼60 to 65 % as the w/cm ratio increased from 0.55 to 0.65

  20. BALANCE CAPACITY WITH VARIABILITY CAUSED BY HUMAN FACTOR: AN APPLICATION IN A LINE WITH MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto Sandes Mendes

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The variation in processing times due to the human factor between the working stations of a production line can generate queues resulting in a higher cost to the productive process. The objective of this study was to apply Monte Carlo simulation to balance the capacity of a production line with stations suffering variability in processing time due to the human factor. Simulations of the current situation of the production line were performed by comparing it with a proposal to align capacity with the production restriction in order to reduce inventories process while maintaining full capacity of the line. To develop the study, the selection involves the case of a company’s production line in the metal industry that produces machinery and products for metalworking area. The results allowed pointing suggestions for the company to reduce in-process inventory, keeping then total capacity of the line.

  1. A simulation study of capacity utilization to predict future capacity for manufacturing system sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimo, Tan Hauw Sen; Chai Tin, Ong

    2017-12-01

    Capacity utilization (CU) measurement is an important task in a manufacturing system, especially in make-to-order (MTO) type manufacturing system with product customization, in predicting capacity to meet future demand. A stochastic discrete-event simulation is developed using ARENA software to determine CU and capacity gap (CG) in short run production function. This study focused on machinery breakdown and product defective rate as random variables in the simulation. The study found that the manufacturing system run in 68.01% CU and 31.99% CG. It is revealed that machinery breakdown and product defective rate have a direct relationship with CU. By improving product defective rate into zero defect, manufacturing system can improve CU up to 73.56% and CG decrease to 26.44%. While improving machinery breakdown into zero breakdowns will improve CU up to 93.99% and the CG decrease to 6.01%. This study helps operation level to study CU using “what-if” analysis in order to meet future demand in more practical and easier method by using simulation approach. Further study is recommended by including other random variables that affect CU to make the simulation closer with the real-life situation for a better decision.

  2. Eutrophication Modeling Using Variable Chlorophyll Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdolabadi, H.; Sarang, A.; Ardestani, M.; Mahjoobi, E.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, eutrophication was investigated in Lake Ontario to identify the interactions among effective drivers. The complexity of such phenomenon was modeled using a system dynamics approach based on a consideration of constant and variable stoichiometric ratios. The system dynamics approach is a powerful tool for developing object-oriented models to simulate complex phenomena that involve feedback effects. Utilizing stoichiometric ratios is a method for converting the concentrations of state variables. During the physical segmentation of the model, Lake Ontario was divided into two layers, i.e., the epilimnion and hypolimnion, and differential equations were developed for each layer. The model structure included 16 state variables related to phytoplankton, herbivorous zooplankton, carnivorous zooplankton, ammonium, nitrate, dissolved phosphorus, and particulate and dissolved carbon in the epilimnion and hypolimnion during a time horizon of one year. The results of several tests to verify the model, close to 1 Nash-Sutcliff coefficient (0.98), the data correlation coefficient (0.98), and lower standard errors (0.96), have indicated well-suited model’s efficiency. The results revealed that there were significant differences in the concentrations of the state variables in constant and variable stoichiometry simulations. Consequently, the consideration of variable stoichiometric ratios in algae and nutrient concentration simulations may be applied in future modeling studies to enhance the accuracy of the results and reduce the likelihood of inefficient control policies.

  3. Improving Simulated Annealing by Replacing Its Variables with Game-Theoretic Utility Maximizers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolpert, David H.; Bandari, Esfandiar; Tumer, Kagan

    2001-01-01

    The game-theory field of Collective INtelligence (COIN) concerns the design of computer-based players engaged in a non-cooperative game so that as those players pursue their self-interests, a pre-specified global goal for the collective computational system is achieved as a side-effect. Previous implementations of COIN algorithms have outperformed conventional techniques by up to several orders of magnitude, on domains ranging from telecommunications control to optimization in congestion problems. Recent mathematical developments have revealed that these previously developed algorithms were based on only two of the three factors determining performance. Consideration of only the third factor would instead lead to conventional optimization techniques like simulated annealing that have little to do with non-cooperative games. In this paper we present an algorithm based on all three terms at once. This algorithm can be viewed as a way to modify simulated annealing by recasting it as a non-cooperative game, with each variable replaced by a player. This recasting allows us to leverage the intelligent behavior of the individual players to substantially improve the exploration step of the simulated annealing. Experiments are presented demonstrating that this recasting significantly improves simulated annealing for a model of an economic process run over an underlying small-worlds topology. Furthermore, these experiments reveal novel small-worlds phenomena, and highlight the shortcomings of conventional mechanism design in bounded rationality domains.

  4. Numerical simulation and analysis of confined turbulent buoyant jet with variable source

    KAUST Repository

    El-Amin, Mohamed

    2016-01-23

    In this work, experimental and numerical investigations are undertaken for confined buoyant turbulent jet with varying inlet temperatures. Results of the experimental work and numerical simulations for the problem under consideration are presented. Four cases of different variable inlet temperatures and different flow rates are considered. The realizable k-ɛ turbulence model is used to model the turbulent flow. Comparisons show good agreements between simulated and measured results. The average deviation of the simulated temperature by realizable k-ɛ turbulent model and the measured temperature is within 2%. The results indicate that temperatures along the vertical axis vary, generally, in nonlinear fashion as opposed to the approximately linear variation that was observed for the constant inlet temperature that was done in a previous work. Furthermore, thermal stratification exits, particularly closer to the entrance region. Further away from the entrance region the variation in temperatures becomes relatively smaller. The stratification is observed since the start of the experiment and continues during the whole course. Numerical experiments for constant, monotone increasing and monotone decreasing of inlet temperature are done to show its effect on the buoyancy force in terms of Richardson number.

  5. Numerical simulation and analysis of confined turbulent buoyant jet with variable source

    KAUST Repository

    El-Amin, Mohamed; Al-Ghamdi, Abdulmajeed; Salama, Amgad; Sun, Shuyu

    2016-01-01

    In this work, experimental and numerical investigations are undertaken for confined buoyant turbulent jet with varying inlet temperatures. Results of the experimental work and numerical simulations for the problem under consideration are presented. Four cases of different variable inlet temperatures and different flow rates are considered. The realizable k-ɛ turbulence model is used to model the turbulent flow. Comparisons show good agreements between simulated and measured results. The average deviation of the simulated temperature by realizable k-ɛ turbulent model and the measured temperature is within 2%. The results indicate that temperatures along the vertical axis vary, generally, in nonlinear fashion as opposed to the approximately linear variation that was observed for the constant inlet temperature that was done in a previous work. Furthermore, thermal stratification exits, particularly closer to the entrance region. Further away from the entrance region the variation in temperatures becomes relatively smaller. The stratification is observed since the start of the experiment and continues during the whole course. Numerical experiments for constant, monotone increasing and monotone decreasing of inlet temperature are done to show its effect on the buoyancy force in terms of Richardson number.

  6. Systematic comparison of position and time dependent macroparticle simulations in beam dynamics studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Qiang

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Macroparticle simulation plays an important role in modern accelerator design and operation. Most linear rf accelerators have been designed based on macroparticle simulations using longitudinal position as the independent variable. In this paper, we have done a systematic comparison between using longitudinal position as the independent variable and using time as the independent variable in macroparticle simulations. We have found that, for an rms-matched beam, the maximum relative moment difference for second, fourth moments and beam maximum amplitudes between these two types of simulations is 0.25% in a 10 m reference transport system with physical parameters similar to the Spallation Neutron Source linac design. The maximum z-to- t transform error in the space-charge force calculation of the position dependent simulation is about 0.1% in such a system. This might cause a several percent error in a complete simulation of a linac with a length of hundreds of meters. Furthermore, the error may be several times larger in simulations of mismatched beams. However, if such errors are acceptable to the linac designer, then one is justified in using position dependent macroparticle simulations in this type of linac design application.

  7. State-variable analysis of inelastic deformation of thin-walled tubes. II. Data analysis and simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wire, G.L.; Duncan, D.R.; Cannon, N.S.; Johnson, G.D.; Alexopoulos, P.S.; Li, C.Y.

    Inelastic analysis is performed to calculate the deformation of thin-walled, internally pressurized, tube under a variety of loading modes. A state-variable approach was used to describe the material properties. The material parameters of the constitutive equations used were determined based on uniaxial, load relaxation, tensile tests, and internally pressurized tubes under creep and constant-displacement-rate modes of loading. The simulated results were compared with the experimental data. The significance of the comparison is discussed in terms of the validity of a state-variable approach used to describe the deformation properties in mechanical testing

  8. Infiltration and Runoff Measurements on Steep Burned Hillslopes Using a Rainfall Simulator with Variable Rain Intensities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinner, David A.; Moody, John A.

    2008-01-01

    Multiple rainfall intensities were used in rainfall-simulation experiments designed to investigate the infiltration and runoff from 1-square-meter plots on burned hillslopes covered by an ash layer of varying thickness. The 1-square-meter plots were on north- and south-facing hillslopes in an area burned by the Overland fire northwest of Boulder near Jamestown on the Front Range of Colorado. A single-nozzle, wide-angle, multi-intensity rain simulator was developed to investigate the infiltration and runoff on steep (30- to 40-percent gradient) burned hillslopes covered with ash. The simulated rainfall was evaluated for spatial variability, drop size, and kinetic energy. Fourteen rainfall simulations, at three intensities (about 20 millimeters per hour [mm/h], 35 mm/h, and 50 mm/h), were conducted on four plots. Measurements during and after the simulations included runoff, rainfall, suspended-sediment concentrations, surface ash layer thickness, soil moisture, soil grain size, soil lost on ignition, and plot topography. Runoff discharge reached a steady state within 7 to 26 minutes. Steady infiltration rates with the 50-mm/h application rainfall intensity approached 20?35 mm/h. If these rates are projected to rainfall application intensities used in many studies of burned area runoff production (about 80 mm/h), the steady discharge rates are on the lower end of measurements from other studies. Experiments using multiple rainfall intensities (three) suggest that runoff begins at rainfall intensities around 20 mm/h at the 1-square-meter scale, an observation consistent with a 10-mm/h rainfall intensity threshold needed for runoff initiation that has been reported in the literature.

  9. Impact of precipitation and land biophysical variables on the simulated discharge of European and Mediterranean rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szczypta, C.; Decharme, B.; Carrer, D.; Calvet, J.-C.; Lafont, S.; Somot, S.; Faroux, S.; Martin, E.

    2012-09-01

    This study investigates the impact on river discharge simulations of errors in the precipitation forcing, together with changes in the representation of vegetation variables and of plant transpiration. The most recent European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA-Interim) is used to drive the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (ISBA-TRIP) continental hydrological system over Europe and the Mediterranean basin over the 1991-2008 period. As ERA-Interim tends to underestimate precipitation, a number of precipitation corrections are proposed. In particular, the monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation product is used to bias-correct the 3-hourly ERA-Interim estimates. This correction markedly improves the match between the ISBA-TRIP simulations and the river discharge observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), at 150 gauging stations. The impact on TRIP river discharge simulations of various representations of the evapotranspiration in the ISBA land surface model is investigated as well: ISBA is used together with its upgraded carbon flux version (ISBA-A-gs). The latter is either driven by the satellite-derived climatology of the Leaf Area Index (LAI) used by ISBA, or performs prognostic LAI simulations. The ISBA-A-gs model, with or without dynamically simulated LAI, allows a better representation of river discharge at low water levels. On the other hand, ISBA-A-gs does not perform as well as the original ISBA model at springtime.

  10. Impact of muscular uptake and statistical noise on tumor quantification based on simulated FDG-PET studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva-Rodríguez, Jesús; Domínguez-Prado, Inés; Pardo-Montero, Juan; Ruibal, Álvaro

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this work is to study the effect of physiological muscular uptake variations and statistical noise on tumor quantification in FDG-PET studies. Methods: We designed a realistic framework based on simulated FDG-PET acquisitions from an anthropomorphic phantom that included different muscular uptake levels and three spherical lung lesions with diameters of 31, 21 and 9 mm. A distribution of muscular uptake levels was obtained from 136 patients remitted to our center for whole-body FDG-PET. Simulated FDG-PET acquisitions were obtained by using the Simulation System for Emission Tomography package (SimSET) Monte Carlo package. Simulated data was reconstructed by using an iterative Ordered Subset Expectation Maximization (OSEM) algorithm implemented in the Software for Tomographic Image Reconstruction (STIR) library. Tumor quantification was carried out by using estimations of SUV max , SUV 50 and SUV mean from different noise realizations, lung lesions and multiple muscular uptakes. Results: Our analysis provided quantification variability values of 17–22% (SUV max ), 11–19% (SUV 50 ) and 8–10% (SUV mean ) when muscular uptake variations and statistical noise were included. Meanwhile, quantification variability due only to statistical noise was 7–8% (SUV max ), 3–7% (SUV 50 ) and 1–2% (SUV mean ) for large tumors (>20 mm) and 13% (SUV max ), 16% (SUV 50 ) and 8% (SUV mean ) for small tumors (<10 mm), thus showing that the variability in tumor quantification is mainly affected by muscular uptake variations when large enough tumors are considered. In addition, our results showed that quantification variability is strongly dominated by statistical noise when the injected dose decreases below 222 MBq. Conclusions: Our study revealed that muscular uptake variations between patients who are totally relaxed should be considered as an uncertainty source of tumor quantification values. - Highlights: • Distribution of muscular uptake from 136 PET

  11. Process informed accurate compact modelling of 14-nm FinFET variability and application to statistical 6T-SRAM simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Xingsheng; Reid, Dave; Wang, Liping; Millar, Campbell; Burenkov, Alex; Evanschitzky, Peter; Baer, Eberhard; Lorenz, Juergen; Asenov, Asen

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a TCAD based design technology co-optimization (DTCO) process for 14nm SOI FinFET based SRAM, which employs an enhanced variability aware compact modeling approach that fully takes process and lithography simulations and their impact on 6T-SRAM layout into account. Realistic double patterned gates and fins and their impacts are taken into account in the development of the variability-aware compact model. Finally, global process induced variability and local statistical var...

  12. Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, Lennart

    1999-01-01

    The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations

  13. Studying and simulating transformer configuration to improve power quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar J. Peña Huaringa

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study and simulation of transformer configurations to improve power quality; it provides theoretical support based on the expansion of the Fourier series and analysis of symmetrical components. A test system was set up in the laboratory, taking measurements and checking configuration effectiveness in reducing the system’s harmonic content. The configurations were modelled with PSCAD / EMTDC software, using two 6 pulse rectifiers as test loads and two variable speed drives.

  14. How to include the variability of TMS responses in simulations: a speech mapping case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Geeter, N.; Lioumis, P.; Laakso, A.; Crevecoeur, G.; Dupré, L.

    2016-11-01

    When delivered over a specific cortical site, TMS can temporarily disrupt the ongoing process in that area. This allows mapping of speech-related areas for preoperative evaluation purposes. We numerically explore the observed variability of TMS responses during a speech mapping experiment performed with a neuronavigation system. We selected four cases with very small perturbations in coil position and orientation. In one case (E) a naming error occurred, while in the other cases (NEA, B, C) the subject appointed the images as smoothly as without TMS. A realistic anisotropic head model was constructed of the subject from T1-weighted and diffusion-weighted MRI. The induced electric field distributions were computed, associated to the coil parameters retrieved from the neuronavigation system. Finally, the membrane potentials along relevant white matter fibre tracts, extracted from DTI-based tractography, were computed using a compartmental cable equation. While only minor differences could be noticed between the induced electric field distributions of the four cases, computing the corresponding membrane potentials revealed different subsets of tracts were activated. A single tract was activated for all coil positions. Another tract was only triggered for case E. NEA induced action potentials in 13 tracts, while NEB stimulated 11 tracts and NEC one. The calculated results are certainly sensitive to the coil specifications, demonstrating the observed variability in this study. However, even though a tract connecting Broca’s with Wernicke’s area is only triggered for the error case, further research is needed on other study cases and on refining the neural model with synapses and network connections. Case- and subject-specific modelling that includes both electromagnetic fields and neuronal activity enables demonstration of the variability in TMS experiments and can capture the interaction with complex neural networks.

  15. Simulation Analysis of SPWM Variable Frequency Speed Based on Simulink

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Yan DI

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is studied on currently a very active field of researching sinusoidal pulse width modulation (SPWM frequency speed control system, and strengthen researched on the simulation model of speed control system with MATLAB / Simulink / Power System simulation tools, thus we can find the best way to simulation. We apply it to the actual conveyor belt, frequency conversion motor, when the obtained simulation results are compared with the measured data, we prove that the method is practical and effective. The results of our research have a guiding role for the future engineering and technical personnel in asynchronous motor SPWM VVVF CAD design.

  16. The effect of a graphical interpretation of a statistic trend indicator (Trigg's Tracking Variable) on the detection of simulated changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, R R; Merry, A F

    2011-09-01

    Anaesthesia involves processing large amounts of information over time. One task of the anaesthetist is to detect substantive changes in physiological variables promptly and reliably. It has been previously demonstrated that a graphical trend display of historical data leads to more rapid detection of such changes. We examined the effect of a graphical indication of the magnitude of Trigg's Tracking Variable, a simple statistically based trend detection algorithm, on the accuracy and latency of the detection of changes in a micro-simulation. Ten anaesthetists each viewed 20 simulations with four variables displayed as the current value with a simple graphical trend display. Values for these variables were generated by a computer model, and updated every second; after a period of stability a change occurred to a new random value at least 10 units from baseline. In 50% of the simulations an indication of the rate of change was given by a five level graphical representation of the value of Trigg's Tracking Variable. Participants were asked to indicate when they thought a change was occurring. Changes were detected 10.9% faster with the trend indicator present (mean 13.1 [SD 3.1] cycles vs 14.6 [SD 3.4] cycles, 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 2.5 cycles, P = 0.013. There was no difference in accuracy of detection (median with trend detection 97% [interquartile range 95 to 100%], without trend detection 100% [98 to 100%]), P = 0.8. We conclude that simple statistical trend detection may speed detection of changes during routine anaesthesia, even when a graphical trend display is present.

  17. Variability of tracer transport in spring/summer Arctic stratosphere simulated by CESM-WACCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Hansen, Felicitas; Huret, Nathalie

    2014-05-01

    Recent observational and modeling transport studies of Arctic stratospheric final warmings have shown that tropical/subtropical air can be transported to high latitudes and remain confined within a long-lived "frozen-in" anticyclone (FrIAC), embedded in the summer easterlies for several months. A climatology of these sporadic events has shown that their frequency of occurrence considerably increased over the last decade: among the nine cases detected over the period 1960-2011, five occurred between 2002 and 2011.Although a stratospheric favorable preconditioning for their occurrence were identified, the causes of such an increase are not yet understood. In this study, a chemistry climate model is used for the first time to investigate FrIACs characteristics and variability. Simulations were performed with the NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM), a coupled model system including an interactive ocean (POP2), land (CLM4), sea ice (CICE), and atmosphere (NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)). To detect low-latitude air masses characterizing FrIACs, daily 3-D output of temperature, horizontal wind and pressure are used to calculate the potential vorticity equivalent latitude (PVEL) distribution onto various isentropic levels in the range 700 K - 1200 K. Additionally, anticyclones are identified by using an algorithm designed to detect systematically vortex edges. To classify an event as a FrIAC, we require that the intrusion contains air masses from low-latitudes (below PVEL=40°N), reaches the polar region (beyond 60°N), and is collocated with an anticyclonic eddy. Among the 145 years analyzed (1955-2099), from a simulation with natural forcing conditions only, 20 FrIACs are found. They occur predominantly under a strong and abrupt winter-to-summer dynamical transitions which are driven by large planetary wave activity. FrIACs characteristics (i.e. spatial extent and duration), are overall consistent by comparing with FrIACs detected in ERA

  18. Simulation of streamflows and basin-wide hydrologic variables over several climate-change scenarios, Methow River basin, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Frank D.; Mastin, Mark C.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to demonstrate the capabilities of an existing watershed model and downscaling procedures to provide simulated hydrological data over various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for use in the Methow River framework prototype. An existing watershed model was used to simulate daily time series of streamflow and basin-wide hydrologic variables for baseline conditions (1990–2000), and then for all combinations of three greenhouse gas emission scenarios and five general circulation models for future conditions (2008–2095). Input data for 18 precipitation and 17 temperature model input sites were generated using statistical techniques to downscale general circulation model data. The simulated results were averaged using an 11-year moving window to characterize the central year of the window to provide simulated data for water years 2008–2095.

  19. Principles of a simulation model for a variable-speed pitch-regulated wind turbine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camblong, H.; Vidal, M.R.; Puiggali, J.R.

    2004-07-01

    This paper considers the basic principles for establishing a simulation- model of a variable speed, pitch regulated, wind turbine. This model is used to test various control algorithms designed with the aim of maximising energetic yield and robustness and minimising flicker emission and dynamic drive train loads. One of the most complex elements of such a system is the interaction between wind and turbine. First, a detailed and didactic analysis of this interaction is given. This is used to understand some complicated phenomena, and to help design a simpler and more efficient (in terms of processing time) mathematical model. Additional submodels are given for the mechanical coupling, the pitch system and the electrical power system, before the entire model is validated by comparison with filed measurements on a 180 kW turbine. The complete simulation model is flexible, efficient and allows easy evaluation of different control algorithms. (author)

  20. Study of Variable Turbulent Prandtl Number Model for Heat Transfer to Supercritical Fluids in Vertical Tubes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Ran; Dai, Xiaoye; Wang, Dabiao; Shi, Lin

    2018-06-01

    In order to improve the prediction performance of the numerical simulations for heat transfer of supercritical pressure fluids, a variable turbulent Prandtl number (Prt) model for vertical upward flow at supercritical pressures was developed in this study. The effects of Prt on the numerical simulation were analyzed, especially for the heat transfer deterioration conditions. Based on the analyses, the turbulent Prandtl number was modeled as a function of the turbulent viscosity ratio and molecular Prandtl number. The model was evaluated using experimental heat transfer data of CO2, water and Freon. The wall temperatures, including the heat transfer deterioration cases, were more accurately predicted by this model than by traditional numerical calculations with a constant Prt. By analyzing the predicted results with and without the variable Prt model, it was found that the predicted velocity distribution and turbulent mixing characteristics with the variable Prt model are quite different from that predicted by a constant Prt. When heat transfer deterioration occurs, the radial velocity profile deviates from the log-law profile and the restrained turbulent mixing then leads to the deteriorated heat transfer.

  1. Demand side management—A simulation of household behavior under variable prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gottwalt, Sebastian; Ketter, Wolfgang; Block, Carsten; Collins, John; Weinhardt, Christof

    2011-01-01

    Within the next years, consumer households will be increasingly equipped with smart metering and intelligent appliances. These technologies are the basis for households to better monitor electricity consumption and to actively control loads in private homes. Demand side management (DSM) can be adopted to private households. We present a simulation model that generates household load profiles under flat tariffs and simulates changes in these profiles when households are equipped with smart appliances and face time-based electricity prices. We investigate the impact of smart appliances and variable prices on electricity bills of a household. We show that for households the savings from equipping them with smart appliances are moderate compared to the required investment. This finding is quite robust with respect to variation of tariff price spreads and to different types of appliance utilization patterns. Finally, our results indicate that electric utilities may face new demand peaks when day-ahead hourly prices are applied. However, a considerable amount of residential load is available for shifting, which is interesting for the utilities to balance demand and supply. - Highlights: ► Our model generates residential load profiles that are based on real world data. ► We simulate changes in load profiles when smart appliances and time-of-use tariffs are applied. ► The economic incentive for households to invest in smart appliances is low. ► Time-of-use tariffs create new, even higher peaks. ► Electric utilities have a large amount of the hourly load available for shifting.

  2. Development of variable-width ribbon heating elements for liquid-metal and gas-cooled fast breeder reactor fuel-pin simulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCulloch, R.W.; Post, D.W.; Lovell, R.T.; Snyder, S.D.

    1981-04-01

    Variable-width ribbon heating elements that provide a chopped-cosine variable heat flux profile have been fabricated for fuel pin simulators used in test loops by the Breeder Reactor Program Thermal-Hydraulic Out-of-Reactor Safety test facility and the Gas-Cooled Fast Breeder Reactor-Core Flow Test Loop. Thermal, mechanical, and electrical design considerations are used to derive an analytical expression that precisely describes ribbon contour in terms of the major fabrication parameters. These parameters are used to generate numerical control tapes that control ribbon cutting and winding machines. Infrared scanning techniques are developed to determine the optimum transient thermal profile of the coils and relate this profile to that generated by the coils in completed fuel pin simulators

  3. Sensitivity analysis of WRF model PBL schemes in simulating boundary-layer variables in southern Italy: An experimental campaign

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avolio, E.; Federico, S.; Miglietta, M.

    2017-01-01

    the surface, where the model uncertainties are, usually, smaller than at the surface. A general anticlockwise rotation of the simulated flow with height is found at all levels. The mixing height is overestimated by all schemes and a possible role of the simulated sensible heat fluxes for this mismatching......The sensitivity of boundary layer variables to five (two non-local and three local) planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization schemes, available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteorological model, is evaluated in an experimental site in Calabria region (southern...... is investigated. On a single-case basis, significantly better results are obtained when the atmospheric conditions near the measurement site are dominated by synoptic forcing rather than by local circulations. From this study, it follows that the two first order non-local schemes, ACM2 and YSU, are the schemes...

  4. Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanvyve, Emilie; Ypersele, Jean-Pascal van [Universite catholique de Louvain, Institut d' astronomie et de geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hall, Nicholas [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales/Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Messager, Christophe [University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, Environment, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Leroux, Stephanie [Universite Joseph Fourier, Laboratoire d' etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, BP53, Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

    2008-02-15

    Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales. (orig.)

  5. Hydrochemical simulation of a mountain basin under hydrological variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montserrat, S.; Trewhela, T. A.; Navarro, L.; Navarrete, A.; Lagos Zuniga, M. A.; Garcia, A.; Caraballo, M.; Niño, Y.; McPhee, J. P.

    2016-12-01

    retaining precipitated minerals, mostly Iron and Aluminium hydroxysulfates, due to low velocity flow in those areas. Validation of the results is done using several data sets that show cycles along seasons under variable outflow and chemical conditions in the outlet of the basin, responding to the same inflow and initial chemical data used for simulation.

  6. Present and Future Modes of Low Frequency Climate Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cane, Mark A.

    2014-02-20

    This project addressed area (1) of the FOA, “Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability”. Our overarching objective is to detect, describe and understand the changes in low frequency variability between model simulations of the preindustrial climate and simulations of a doubled CO2 climate. The deliverables are a set of papers providing a dynamical characterization of interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in coupled models with attention to the changes in this low frequency variability between pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The principle mode of analysis, singular vector decomposition, is designed to advance our physical, mechanistic understanding. This study will include external natural variability due to solar and volcanic aerosol variations as well as variability internal to the climate system. An important byproduct is a set of analysis tools for estimating global singular vector structures from the archived output of model simulations.

  7. A simulated regolith medium for multi-wavelength studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkman, O.; Muinonen, K.; Parviainen, H.; Näränen, J.

    2012-04-01

    Effects arising from the small-scale surface structure are significant in remote studies of regolith surfaces on atmosphereless solar system bodies, such as the Moon, Mercury and the asteroids. The important properties determining these effects are the porosity of the regolith and the roughness of the interface between the bulk material and empty space. We concentrate on the regolith effects in visible light photometry and X-ray spectrometry. The fluorescent X-ray spectrum induced by solar X-rays contains information about the elemental abundances of the surface material, while the photometry can be used to constrain surface properties such as porosity. We have developed a computer model simulating a regolith medium consisting of spherical particles with variable size distribution and properties. The bulk properties of the medium, such as porosity and surface roughness, can be varied. The model can then be used in ray-tracing simulations of the regolith effects in both visible light scattering and X-ray fluorescence. In photometric studies the scattering law of the constituent particles can be chosen to take into account scattering phenomena such as coherent backscattering. In the X-ray simulations, we can choose the elemental abundances of the material and the spectrum of the incident X-ray radiation. The ray-tracing simulations then allow us to determine the characteristics of the emitted radiation in different observational geometries. We present results from various studies which have been based on our regolith model. The model has been used to simulate the regolith effects on X-ray fluorescence spectra under specific situations. These can be compared to laboratory measurements. The visible light simulations have been applied in a study of the shadowing effects in photometry. The model was also used in a study of lunar photometry from SMART-1/AMIE data. Applications in the analysis of X-ray spectrometry from the BepiColombo MIXS/SIXS instruments are planned. An

  8. The effect of positive and negative emotions on young drivers : A simulator study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eherenfreund-Hager, Ahinoam; Taubman – Ben-Ari, Orit; Toledo, Tomer; Farah, H.

    2017-01-01

    The study examined the influence of affect induction on actual risk-taking behavior in a driving simulator, as well as the links between personal variables (relevance of driving to self-esteem, sensation seeking) and the level of risky driving. Eighty young drivers aged 18–21 (M = 19.24,

  9. The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in surface and deep ocean temperature and salinity fields from unperturbed climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanchettin, D.; Jungclaus, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    Large multidecadal fluctuations in basin-average sea-surface temperature (SST) are a known feature of observed, reconstructed and simulated variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. This phenomenon is often referred to as Multidecadal Atlantic Variability or AMV. Historical AMV fluctuations are associated with analog basin-scale changes in sea-surface salinity, so that warming corresponds to salinification and cooling to freshening [Polyakov et al., 2005]. The surface imprint of the AMV further corresponds to same-sign fluctuations in the shallow ocean and with opposite-sign fluctuations in the deep ocean for both temperature and salinity [Polyakov et al., 2005]. This out-of-phase behavior reflects the thermohaline overturning circulation shaping North Atlantic's low-frequency variability. Several processes contribute to the AMV, involving both ocean-atmosphere coupled processes and deep ocean circulation [e.g., Grossmann and Klotzbach, 2009]. In particular, recirculation in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region of salinity anomalies from Arctic freshwater export may trigger multidecadal variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and therefore may be part of the AMV [Jungclaus et al., 2005; Dima and Lohmann, 2007]. With this contribution, we aim to improve the physical interpretation of the AMV by investigating spatial and temporal patterns of temperature and salinity fields in the shallow and deep ocean. We focus on two unperturbed millennial-scale simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model in its paleo (MPI-ESM-P) and low-resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) configurations, which provide reference control climates for assessments of pre-industrial and historical climate simulations. The two model configurations only differ for the presence, in MPI-ESM-LR, of an active module for dynamical vegetation. We use spatial-average indices and empirical orthogonal functions/principal components to track the horizontal and vertical

  10. Preliminary studies on a variable energy positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwan, P.Y.; Cheung, C.K.; Beling, C.D.; Fung, S.

    2006-01-01

    There are many advantages in being able to perform positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy (PALS) using a variable energy positron beam, the most obvious being the easy identification of different defect types at different depths. The difficulty in conducting variable energy (VE) PALS studies lies in the fact that a 'start' signal is required to signal the entry of the positron into the target. Two methods have been used to overcome this problem, namely the bunching technique, which employs radio frequency (RF) cavities and choppers, and secondly the use of secondary electrons emitted from the target. The latter technique is in terms of experimental complexity much simpler, but has in the past suffered from poor time resolution (typically ∼500 ps). In this work, we present a series of computer simulations of a design based on the secondary electron emission from thin C-foils in transmission mode which shows that significant improvements in time resolution can be made with resolutions ∼200 ps being in principle possible

  11. 2D hydrodynamic simulations of a variable length gas target for density down-ramp injection of electrons into a laser wakefield accelerator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kononenko, O., E-mail: olena.kononenko@desy.de [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Lopes, N.C.; Cole, J.M.; Kamperidis, C.; Mangles, S.P.D.; Najmudin, Z. [The John Adams Institute for Accelerator Science, The Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London, SW7 2BZ UK (United Kingdom); Osterhoff, J. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Poder, K. [The John Adams Institute for Accelerator Science, The Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London, SW7 2BZ UK (United Kingdom); Rusby, D.; Symes, D.R. [Central Laser Facility, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot OX11 0QX (United Kingdom); Warwick, J. [Queens University Belfast, North Ireland (United Kingdom); Wood, J.C. [The John Adams Institute for Accelerator Science, The Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London, SW7 2BZ UK (United Kingdom); Palmer, C.A.J. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Hamburg (Germany)

    2016-09-01

    In this work, two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic simulations of a variable length gas cell were performed using the open source fluid code OpenFOAM. The gas cell was designed to study controlled injection of electrons into a laser-driven wakefield at the Astra Gemini laser facility. The target consists of two compartments: an accelerator and an injector section connected via an aperture. A sharp transition between the peak and plateau density regions in the injector and accelerator compartments, respectively, was observed in simulations with various inlet pressures. The fluid simulations indicate that the length of the down-ramp connecting the sections depends on the aperture diameter, as does the density drop outside the entrance and the exit cones. Further studies showed, that increasing the inlet pressure leads to turbulence and strong fluctuations in density along the axial profile during target filling, and consequently, is expected to negatively impact the accelerator stability.

  12. The dynamics of variable-density turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandoval, D.L.

    1995-11-01

    The dynamics of variable-density turbulent fluids are studied by direct numerical simulation. The flow is incompressible so that acoustic waves are decoupled from the problem, and implying that density is not a thermodynamic variable. Changes in density occur due to molecular mixing. The velocity field, is in general, divergent. A pseudo-spectral numerical technique is used to solve the equations of motion. Three-dimensional simulations are performed using a grid size of 128 3 grid points. Two types of problems are studied: (1) the decay of isotropic, variable-density turbulence, and (2) buoyancy-generated turbulence in a fluid with large density fluctuations. In the case of isotropic, variable-density turbulence, the overall statistical decay behavior, for the cases studied, is relatively unaffected by the presence of density variations when the initial density and velocity fields are statistically independent. The results for this case are in quantitative agreement with previous numerical and laboratory results. In this case, the initial density field has a bimodal probability density function (pdf) which evolves in time towards a Gaussian distribution. The pdf of the density field is symmetric about its mean value throughout its evolution. If the initial velocity and density fields are statistically dependent, however, the decay process is significantly affected by the density fluctuations. For the case of buoyancy-generated turbulence, variable-density departures from the Boussinesq approximation are studied. The results of the buoyancy-generated turbulence are compared with variable-density model predictions. Both a one-point (engineering) model and a two-point (spectral) model are tested against the numerical data. Some deficiencies in these variable-density models are discussed and modifications are suggested

  13. Phase space dynamics and collective variable fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benhassine, B.; Farine, M.; Idier, D.; Remaud, B.; Sebille, F.; Schuck, P.

    1995-01-01

    A dynamical study of collective variable fluctuations in heavy ion reactions is performed within the framework of the Boltzmann-Langevin theory. A general method to extract dispersions on collective variables from numerical simulations based on test particles models is presented and its validity is checked by comparison with analytical equilibrium results. (authors)

  14. Biological Sampling Variability Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amidan, Brett G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hutchison, Janine R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-11-08

    There are many sources of variability that exist in the sample collection and analysis process. This paper addresses many, but not all, sources of variability. The main focus of this paper was to better understand and estimate variability due to differences between samplers. Variability between days was also studied, as well as random variability within each sampler. Experiments were performed using multiple surface materials (ceramic and stainless steel), multiple contaminant concentrations (10 spores and 100 spores), and with and without the presence of interfering material. All testing was done with sponge sticks using 10-inch by 10-inch coupons. Bacillus atrophaeus was used as the BA surrogate. Spores were deposited using wet deposition. Grime was coated on the coupons which were planned to include the interfering material (Section 3.3). Samples were prepared and analyzed at PNNL using CDC protocol (Section 3.4) and then cultured and counted. Five samplers were trained so that samples were taken using the same protocol. Each sampler randomly sampled eight coupons each day, four coupons with 10 spores deposited and four coupons with 100 spores deposited. Each day consisted of one material being tested. The clean samples (no interfering materials) were run first, followed by the dirty samples (coated with interfering material). There was a significant difference in recovery efficiency between the coupons with 10 spores deposited (mean of 48.9%) and those with 100 spores deposited (mean of 59.8%). There was no general significant difference between the clean and dirty (containing interfering material) coupons or between the two surface materials; however, there was a significant interaction between concentration amount and presence of interfering material. The recovery efficiency was close to the same for coupons with 10 spores deposited, but for the coupons with 100 spores deposited, the recovery efficiency for the dirty samples was significantly larger (65

  15. Constructing probability distributions of uncertain variables in models of the performance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: The 1990 performance simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tierney, M.S.

    1990-12-01

    A five-step procedure was used in the 1990 performance simulations to construct probability distributions of the uncertain variables appearing in the mathematical models used to simulate the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant's (WIPP's) performance. This procedure provides a consistent approach to the construction of probability distributions in cases where empirical data concerning a variable are sparse or absent and minimizes the amount of spurious information that is often introduced into a distribution by assumptions of nonspecialists. The procedure gives first priority to the professional judgment of subject-matter experts and emphasizes the use of site-specific empirical data for the construction of the probability distributions when such data are available. In the absence of sufficient empirical data, the procedure employs the Maximum Entropy Formalism and the subject-matter experts' subjective estimates of the parameters of the distribution to construct a distribution that can be used in a performance simulation. (author)

  16. Constructing probability distributions of uncertain variables in models of the performance of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: The 1990 performance simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tierney, M S

    1990-12-15

    A five-step procedure was used in the 1990 performance simulations to construct probability distributions of the uncertain variables appearing in the mathematical models used to simulate the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant's (WIPP's) performance. This procedure provides a consistent approach to the construction of probability distributions in cases where empirical data concerning a variable are sparse or absent and minimizes the amount of spurious information that is often introduced into a distribution by assumptions of nonspecialists. The procedure gives first priority to the professional judgment of subject-matter experts and emphasizes the use of site-specific empirical data for the construction of the probability distributions when such data are available. In the absence of sufficient empirical data, the procedure employs the Maximum Entropy Formalism and the subject-matter experts' subjective estimates of the parameters of the distribution to construct a distribution that can be used in a performance simulation. (author)

  17. Impact of Urbanization on Spatial Variability of Rainfall-A case study of Mumbai city with WRF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew, M.; Paul, S.; Devanand, A.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    Urban precipitation enhancement has been identified over many cities in India by previous studies conducted. Anthropogenic effects such as change in land cover from hilly forest areas to flat topography with solid concrete infrastructures has certain effect on the local weather, the same way the greenhouse gas has on climate change. Urbanization could alter the large scale forcings to such an extent that it may bring about temporal and spatial changes in the urban weather. The present study investigate the physical processes involved in urban forcings, such as the effect of sudden increase in wind velocity travelling through the channel space in between the dense array of buildings, which give rise to turbulence and air mass instability in urban boundary layer and in return alters the rainfall distribution as well as rainfall initiation. A numerical model study is conducted over Mumbai metropolitan city which lies on the west coast of India, to assess the effect of urban morphology on the increase in number of extreme rainfall events in specific locations. An attempt has been made to simulate twenty extreme rainfall events that occurred over the summer monsoon period of the year 2014 using high resolution WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF) model to assess the urban land cover mechanisms that influences precipitation variability over this spatially varying urbanized region. The result is tested against simulations with altered land use. The correlation of precipitation with spatial variability of land use is found using a detailed urban land use classification. The initial and boundary conditions for running the model were obtained from the global model ECMWF(European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) reanalysis data having a horizontal resolution of 0.75 °x 0.75°. The high resolution simulations show significant spatial variability in the accumulated rainfall, within a few kilometers itself. Understanding the spatial

  18. Operations planning simulation: Model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-01-01

    The use of simulation modeling for the identification of system sensitivities to internal and external forces and variables is discussed. The technique provides a means of exploring alternate system procedures and processes, so that these alternatives may be considered on a mutually comparative basis permitting the selection of a mode or modes of operation which have potential advantages to the system user and the operator. These advantages are measurements is system efficiency are: (1) the ability to meet specific schedules for operations, mission or mission readiness requirements or performance standards and (2) to accomplish the objectives within cost effective limits.

  19. Phase space dynamics and collective variable fluctuations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benhassine, B.; Farine, M.; Idier, D.; Remaud, B.; Sebille, F. [Laboratoire de Physique Nucleaire de Nantes, 44 (France); Schuck, P. [Institut des Sciences Nucleaires, 38 - Grenoble (France)

    1995-12-31

    A dynamical study of collective variable fluctuations in heavy ion reactions is performed within the framework of the Boltzmann-Langevin theory. A general method to extract dispersions on collective variables from numerical simulations based on test particles models is presented and its validity is checked by comparison with analytical equilibrium results. (authors) 10 refs.

  20. Numerical simulation of gas metal arc welding parametrical study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szanto, M.; Gilad, I.; Shai, I.; Quinn, T.P.

    2002-01-01

    The Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW) is a widely used welding process in the industry. The process variables are usually determined through extensive experiments. Numerical simulation, reduce the cost and extends the understanding of the process. In the present work, a versatile model for numerical simulation of GMAW is presented. The model provides the basis for fundamental understanding of the process. The model solves the magneto-hydrodynamic equations for the flow and temperature fields of the molten electrode and the plasma simultaneously, to form a fully coupled model. A commercial CFD code was extended to include the effects of radiation, Lorentz forces, Joule heating and thermoelectric effects. The geometry of the numerical model assembled to fit an experimental apparatus. To demonstrate the method, an aluminum electrode was modeled in a pure argon arc. Material properties and welding parameters are the input variables in the numerical model. In a typical process, the temperature distribution of the plasma is over 15000 K, resulting high non-linearity of the material properties. Moreover, there is high uncertainty in the available property data, at that range of temperatures. Therefore, correction factors were derived for the material properties to adjust between the numerical and the experimental results. Using the compensated properties, parametric study was performed. The effects of the welding parameters on the process, such the working voltage, electrode feed rate and shielding gas flow, were derived. The principal result of the present work is the ability to predict, by numerical simulation, the mode, size and frequency of the metal transferred from the electrode, which is the main material and energy source for the welding pool in GMAW

  1. The Significance of the Spatial Variability of Rainfall on the Numerical Simulation of Urban Floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Guillaume Courty

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The growth of urban population, combined with an increase of extreme events due to climate change call for a better understanding and representation of urban floods. The uncertainty in rainfall distribution is one of the most important factors that affects the watershed response to a given precipitation event. However, most of the investigations on this topic have considered theoretical scenarios, with little reference to case studies in the real world. This paper incorporates the use of spatially-variable precipitation data from a long-range radar in the simulation of the severe floods that impacted the city of Hull, U.K., in June 2007. This radar-based rainfall field is merged with rain gauge data using a Kriging with External Drift interpolation technique. The utility of this spatially-variable information is investigated through the comparison of computed flooded areas (uniform and radar against those registered by public authorities. Both results show similar skills at reproducing the real event, but differences in the total precipitated volumes, water depths and flooded areas are illustrated. It is envisaged that in urban areas and with the advent of higher resolution radars, these differences will be more important and call for further investigation.

  2. Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

    1996-11-01

    The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall

  3. An exploration of the relationship between knowledge and performance-related variables in high-fidelity simulation: designing instruction that promotes expertise in practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauber, Roxanne P; Cormier, Eileen; Whyte, James

    2010-01-01

    Increasingly, high-fidelity patient simulation (HFPS) is becoming essential to nursing education. Much remains unknown about how classroom learning is connected to student decision-making in simulation scenarios and the degree to which transference takes place between the classroom setting and actual practice. The present study was part of a larger pilot study aimed at determining the relationship between nursing students' clinical ability to prioritize their actions and the associated cognitions and physiologic outcomes of care using HFPS. In an effort to better explain the knowledge base being used by nursing students in HFPS, the investigators explored the relationship between common measures of knowledge and performance-related variables. Findings are discussed within the context of the expert performance approach and concepts from cognitive psychology, such as cognitive architecture, cognitive load, memory, and transference.

  4. Power considerations for the application of detrended fluctuation analysis in gait variability studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikita A Kuznetsov

    Full Text Available The assessment of gait variability using stochastic signal processing techniques such as detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA has been shown to be a sensitive tool for evaluation of gait alterations due to aging and neuromuscular disease. However, previous studies have suggested that the application of DFA requires relatively long recordings (600 strides, which is difficult when working with clinical populations or older adults. In this paper we propose a model for predicting DFA variance in experimental data and conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the sample size and number of trials required to detect a change in DFA scaling exponent. We illustrate the model in a simulation to detect a difference of 0.1 (medium effect between two groups of subjects when using short gait time series (100 to 200 strides in the context of between- and within-subject designs. We assumed that the variance of DFA scaling exponent arises due to individual differences, time series length, and experimental error. Results showed that sample sizes required to achieve acceptable power of 80% are practically feasible, especially when using within-subject designs. For example, to detect a group difference in the DFA scaling exponent of 0.1, it would require either 25 subjects and 2 trials per subject or 12 subjects and 4 trials per subject using a within-subject design. We then compared plausibility of such power predictions to the empirically observed power from a study that required subjects to synchronize with a persistent fractal metronome. The results showed that the model adequately predicted the empirical pattern of results. Our power simulations could be used in conjunction with previous design guidelines in the literature when planning new gait variability experiments.

  5. An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Radley M.

    Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even

  6. Simulations of Precipitation Variability over the Upper Rio Grande Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costigan, Keeley R.; Bossert, James E.; Langley, David L.

    1997-10-01

    In this research, we study Albuquerque's water and how it may be affected by changes in the regional climate, as manifested by variations in Rio Grande water levels. To do this, we rely on the use of coupled atmospheric, runoff, and ground water models. Preliminary work on the project has focused on uncoupled simulations of the aquifer beneath Albuquerque and winter precipitation simulations of the upper Rio Grande Basin. The latter is discussed in this paper

  7. Cartas de control para monitorear variables multinomiales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz Marcela Restrepo-Tamayo

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The control as a tool for monitoring the quality of a product, allows to study the stability of processes over time, contrasting two hypothesis, which states that the process is in stable condition and the other denies it. Its use has been massive for continuous variables but not for categorical variables, why it is imperative to design such tools for such variables. Objective: To propose two (2 control charts for variables multinomial processes based on the p-value test result for homogeneity of proportions using the chi square test for uniform processing variables and approximation Wilson - Hilferty for variables chi square. Methods: The performance of proposed charts via simulation is estimated considering a Phase II process and considering the first category increments of 2%, 4% and 6% in the control stage. Results: The multinomial control chart using Wilson-Hilferty approximation for variables chi square, from the transformation of value-p, has poor performance compared to the control charts using p-value processing and using chi-square p-value, as they have less ability to detect small changes. Conclusion: We propose two control charts to monitor multinomial variables and once studied via simulation, based on the average run length (ARL and the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis of equal proportions, we recommend the control chart using value-p, or equivalently, the control chart processing using chi square p-value.

  8. Evaluation of Variable Refrigerant Flow Systems Performance on Oak Ridge National Laboratory s Flexible Research Platform: Part 3 Simulation Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Im, Piljae [ORNL; Cho, Heejin [Mississippi State University (MSU); Kim, Dongsu [Mississippi State University (MSU); Cox, Sam [Mississippi State University (MSU)

    2016-08-01

    This report provides second-year project simulation results for the multi-year project titled “Evaluation of Variable Refrigeration Flow (VRF) system on Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)’s Flexible Research Platform (FRP).”

  9. Internal variability of fine-scale components of meteorological fields in extended-range limited-area model simulations with atmospheric and surface nudging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Separovic, Leo; Husain, Syed Zahid; Yu, Wei

    2015-09-01

    Internal variability (IV) in dynamical downscaling with limited-area models (LAMs) represents a source of error inherent to the downscaled fields, which originates from the sensitive dependence of the models to arbitrarily small modifications. If IV is large it may impose the need for probabilistic verification of the downscaled information. Atmospheric spectral nudging (ASN) can reduce IV in LAMs as it constrains the large-scale components of LAM fields in the interior of the computational domain and thus prevents any considerable penetration of sensitively dependent deviations into the range of large scales. Using initial condition ensembles, the present study quantifies the impact of ASN on IV in LAM simulations in the range of fine scales that are not controlled by spectral nudging. Four simulation configurations that all include strong ASN but differ in the nudging settings are considered. In the fifth configuration, grid nudging of land surface variables toward high-resolution surface analyses is applied. The results show that the IV at scales larger than 300 km can be suppressed by selecting an appropriate ASN setup. At scales between 300 and 30 km, however, in all configurations, the hourly near-surface temperature, humidity, and winds are only partly reproducible. Nudging the land surface variables is found to have the potential to significantly reduce IV, particularly for fine-scale temperature and humidity. On the other hand, hourly precipitation accumulations at these scales are generally irreproducible in all configurations, and probabilistic approach to downscaling is therefore recommended.

  10. Drones at the service for training on mass casualty incident: A simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Pacheco, Antonio Nieto; Rodriguez, Laura Juguera; Price, Mariana Ferrandini; Perez, Ana Belen Garcia; Alonso, Nuria Perez; Rios, Manuel Pardo

    2017-06-01

    Mass casualty incidents (MCI) are characterized by a large number of victims with respect to the resources available. In this study, we aimed to analyze the changes produced in the self-perception of students who were able to visualize aerial views of a simulation of a MCI. A simulation study, mixed method, was performed to compare the results from an ad hoc questionnaire. The 35 students from the Emergency Nursing Master from the UCAM completed a questionnaire before and after watching an MCI video with 40 victims in which they had participated. The main variable measured was the change in self-perception (CSP). The CSP occurred in 80% (28/35) of the students (P = .001). Students improved their individual (P = .001) and group (P = .006) scores. They also described that their personal performance had better results than the group performance (P = .047). The main conclusion of this study is that drones could lead to CSP and appraisal of the MCI simulation participants.

  11. Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A. David; Koven, Charles; Lawrence, David M.; Clein, Joy S.; Xia, Jiangyang; Beer, Christian; Burke, Eleanor J.; Chen, Guangsheng; Chen, Xiaodong; Delire, Christine; Jafarov, Elchin; MacDougall, Andrew H.; Marchenko, Sergey S.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Peng, Shushi; Rinke, Annette; Saito, Kazuyuki; Zhang, Wenxin; Alkama, Ramdane; Bohn, Theodore J.; Ciais, Philippe; Decharme, Bertrand; Ekici, Altug; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hajima, Tomohiro; Hayes, Daniel J.; Ji, Duoying; Krinner, Gerhard; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Luo, Yiqi; Miller, Paul A.; Moore, John C.; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Schädel, Christina; Schaefer, Kevin; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Smith, Benjamin; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Zhuang, Qianlai

    2016-01-01

    A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to

  12. Definition study for variable cycle engine testbed engine and associated test program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vdoviak, J. W.

    1978-01-01

    The product/study double bypass variable cycle engine (VCE) was updated to incorporate recent improvements. The effect of these improvements on mission range and noise levels was determined. This engine design was then compared with current existing high-technology core engines in order to define a subscale testbed configuration that simulated many of the critical technology features of the product/study VCE. Detailed preliminary program plans were then developed for the design, fabrication, and static test of the selected testbed engine configuration. These plans included estimated costs and schedules for the detail design, fabrication and test of the testbed engine and the definition of a test program, test plan, schedule, instrumentation, and test stand requirements.

  13. Variability in ACL tunnel placement: observational clinical study of surgeon ACL tunnel variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Brian R; Ramme, Austin J; Wright, Rick W; Brophy, Robert H; McCarty, Eric C; Vidal, Armando R; Parker, Richard D; Andrish, Jack T; Amendola, Annunziato

    2013-06-01

    Multicenter and multisurgeon cohort studies on anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction are becoming more common. Minimal information exists on intersurgeon and intrasurgeon variability in ACL tunnel placement. Purpose/ The purpose of this study was to analyze intersurgeon and intrasurgeon variability in ACL tunnel placement in a series of The Multicenter Orthopaedic Outcomes Network (MOON) ACL reconstruction patients and in a clinical cohort of ACL reconstruction patients. The hypothesis was that there would be minimal variability between surgeons in ACL tunnel placement. Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Seventy-eight patients who underwent ACL reconstruction by 8 surgeons had postoperative imaging with computed tomography, and ACL tunnel location and angulation were analyzed using 3-dimensional surface processing and measurement. Intersurgeon and intrasurgeon variability in ACL tunnel placement was analyzed. For intersurgeon variability, the range in mean ACL femoral tunnel depth between surgeons was 22%. For femoral tunnel height, there was a 19% range. Tibial tunnel location from anterior to posterior on the plateau had a 16% range in mean results. There was only a small range of 4% for mean tibial tunnel location from the medial to lateral dimension. For intrasurgeon variability, femoral tunnel depth demonstrated the largest ranges, and tibial tunnel location from medial to lateral on the plateau demonstrated the least variability. Overall, surgeons were relatively consistent within their own cases. Using applied measurement criteria, 85% of femoral tunnels and 90% of tibial tunnels fell within applied literature-based guidelines. Ninety-one percent of the axes of the femoral tunnels fell within the boundaries of the femoral footprint. The data demonstrate that surgeons performing ACL reconstructions are relatively consistent between each other. There is, however, variability of average tunnel placement up to 22% of mean condylar depth

  14. Models of simulation and prediction of the behavior of dengue in four Colombian cities, including climate like modulating variable of the disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia Giraldo, Jairo A; Boshell, Jose Francisco

    2004-01-01

    ARIMA-type models are proposed to simulate the behavior of dengue and to make apparent the relations with the climatic variability in four localities of Colombia. The climatic variable was introduced into the models as an index that modulates the behavior of the disease. It was obtained by means of a multivariate analysis of principal components. The investigation was carried out with information corresponding to the epidemiological weeks from January 1997 to December 2000, for both the number of disease cases and the data corresponding to the meteorological variables. The study shows that the variations of the climate between the previous 9 to 14 weeks have influence on the appearance of new cases of dengue. In particular, the precipitation in these weeks was seen to be greater when in later periods the disease presented epidemic characteristics than the precipitation in those weeks preceded the disease within endemic limits

  15. Simulation of hybrid renewable microgeneration systems for variable electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandoni, C.; Renzi, M.; Caresana, F.; Polonara, F.

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses a hybrid renewable system that consists of a micro-Combined Cooling Heat and Power (CCHP) unit and a solar energy conversion device. In addition to a traditional PV system, a High Concentrator Photovoltaic (HCPV) device, the design of which is suitable for building integration application, was also modelled and embedded in the hybrid system. The work identifies the optimal management strategies for the hybrid renewable system in an effort to minimise the primary energy usage, the carbon dioxide emissions and the operational costs for variable electricity prices that result from the day-ahead electricity market. An “ad hoc” model describes the performance of the HCPV module, PV and Internal Combustion Engine, whilst the other units were simulated based on their main characteristic parameters. The developed algorithm was applied to three different building typologies. The results indicate that the best configuration is the hybrid renewable system with PV, which can provide a yearly primary energy reduction of between 20% and 30% compared to separate production. The hybrid renewable system with HCPV becomes competitive with the PV technology when the level of solar radiation is high. - Highlights: • The paper addresses a hybrid renewable system that consists of a micro-CCHP unit and a solar energy conversion device. • Both PV and High Concentrator Photovoltaic (HCPV) systems have been modelled and embedded in the hybrid system. • The work identifies the optimal management strategies for variable electricity prices. • Hybrid renewable systems provide a yearly primary energy reduction of between 20% and 30% compared to separate production. • When the level of solar radiation is high, HCPV becomes competitive with the PV technology

  16. ALLAN.simulation club; Club ALLAN.simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boudaud, F

    1994-05-27

    The ALLAN.Simulation code was developed by the R and D direction of Gaz de France (GdF) company with the support of CISI and Dassault Data Services companies. Its aim is to provide a modeling tool for the design and operation of complex technical systems. It uses a `boxes and ropes` representation (non-oriented multi-variable bloc-schemes) which allows the re-use of all or part of previous models or analyses already developed and recorded. The third meeting of the non-GdF users of the ALLAN.Simulation code took place at Sophia Antipolis (France) on May 27, 1994. Several studies performed with ALLAN.Simulation were presented and dealt with: a thermohydraulic loop, an alternator for automobile, and the hydration of cements. This report is a compilation of the transparencies relative to these three studies. A last part is devoted the presentation of the possible links between different existing simulation codes: ALLAN, BASILE, MAPLE, NEPTUNIX. (J.S.)

  17. A Hydrological Response Analysis Considering Climatic Variability: Case Study of Hunza Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Laghari

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological response of mountainous catchments particularly dependent on melting runoff is very vulnerable to climatic variability. This study is an attempt to assess hydrological response towards climatic variability of the Hunza catchment located in the mountainous chain of greater Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH region. The hydrological response is analyzed through changes in snowmelt, ice melt and total runoff simulated through the application of the hydrological modeling system PREVAH under hypothetically developed climate change scenarios. The developed scenarios are based on changes in precipitation (Prp and temperature (Tmp and their combination. Under all the warmer scenarios, the increase in temperature systematically decreases the mean annual snow melt and increases significantly glacier melt volume. Temperature changes from 1°C to 4°C produce a large increase in spring and summer runoff, while no major variation was observed in the winter and autumn runoff. The maximum seasonal changes recorded under the Tmp+4°C, Prp+10% scenario.

  18. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-12-01

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  19. The Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and simulated climatic variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2006-12-15

    The CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been used to generate a 10,000-year simulation for 'present' climatic conditions. The model output has been analysed to identify sustained climatic fluctuations, such as those attributed to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Since no external forcing was permitted during the model run all such fluctuations are attributed to naturally occurring climatic variability associated with the nonlinear processes inherent in the climatic system. Comparison of simulated climatic time series for different geographical locations highlighted the lack of synchronicity between these series. The model was found to be able to simulate climatic extremes for selected observations for century timescales, as well as identifying the associated spatial characteristics. Other examples of time series simulated by the model for the USA and eastern Russia had similar characteristics to those attributed to the MWP and the LIA, but smaller amplitudes, and clearly defined spatial patterns. A search for the frequency of occurrence of specified surface temperature anomalies, defined via duration and mean value, revealed that these were primarily confined to polar regions and northern latitudes of Europe, Asia and North America. Over the majority of the oceans and southern hemisphere such climatic fluctuations could not be sustained, for reasons explained in the paper. Similarly, sustained sea-ice anomalies were mainly confined to the northern hemisphere. An examination of mechanisms associated with the sustained climatic fluctuations failed to identify a role for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It was therefore concluded that these fluctuations were generated by stochastic processes intrinsic to the nonlinear climatic system. While a number of characteristics of the MWP and the LIA could have been partially caused by natural processes within

  20. Modelling and control of variable speed wind turbines for power system studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michalke, Gabriele; Hansen, Anca Daniela

    2010-01-01

    and implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. Important issues like the fault ride-through and grid support capabilities of these wind turbine concepts are addressed. The paper reveals that advanced control of variable speed wind turbines can improve power system stability. Finally......, it will be shown in the paper that wind parks consisting of variable speed wind turbines can help nearby connected fixed speed wind turbines to ride-through grid faults. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.......Modern wind turbines are predominantly variable speed wind turbines with power electronic interface. Emphasis in this paper is therefore on the modelling and control issues of these wind turbine concepts and especially on their impact on the power system. The models and control are developed...

  1. Dual-energy mammography: simulation studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bliznakova, K; Kolitsi, Z; Pallikarakis, N

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a mammography simulator and demonstrates its applicability in feasibility studies in dual-energy (DE) subtraction mammography. This mammography simulator is an evolution of a previously presented x-ray imaging simulation system, which has been extended with new functionalities that are specific for DE simulations. The new features include incident exposure and dose calculations, the implementation of a DE subtraction algorithm as well as amendments to the detector and source modelling. The system was then verified by simulating experiments and comparing their results against published data. The simulator was used to carry out a feasibility study of the applicability of DE techniques in mammography, and more precisely to examine whether this modality could result in better visualization and detection of microcalcifications. Investigations were carried out using a 3D breast software phantom of average thickness, monoenergetic and polyenergetic beam spectra and various detector configurations. Dual-shot techniques were simulated. Results showed the advantage of using monoenergetic in comparison with polyenergetic beams. Optimization studies with monochromatic sources were carried out to obtain the optimal low and high incident energies, based on the assessment of the figure of merit of the simulated microcalcifications in the subtracted images. The results of the simulation study with the optimal energies demonstrated that the use of the DE technique can improve visualization and increase detectability, allowing identification of microcalcifications of sizes as small as 200 μm. The quantitative results are also verified by means of a visual inspection of the synthetic images

  2. Approaches for modeling within subject variability in pharmacometric count data analysis: dynamic inter-occasion variability and stochastic differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chenhui; Plan, Elodie L; Karlsson, Mats O

    2016-06-01

    Parameter variation in pharmacometric analysis studies can be characterized as within subject parameter variability (WSV) in pharmacometric models. WSV has previously been successfully modeled using inter-occasion variability (IOV), but also stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this study, two approaches, dynamic inter-occasion variability (dIOV) and adapted stochastic differential equations, were proposed to investigate WSV in pharmacometric count data analysis. These approaches were applied to published count models for seizure counts and Likert pain scores. Both approaches improved the model fits significantly. In addition, stochastic simulation and estimation were used to explore further the capability of the two approaches to diagnose and improve models where existing WSV is not recognized. The results of simulations confirmed the gain in introducing WSV as dIOV and SDEs when parameters vary randomly over time. Further, the approaches were also informative as diagnostics of model misspecification, when parameters changed systematically over time but this was not recognized in the structural model. The proposed approaches in this study offer strategies to characterize WSV and are not restricted to count data.

  3. Low-frequency variability in North Sea and Baltic Sea identified through simulations with the 3-D coupled physical–biogeochemical model ECOSMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Daewel

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Here we present results from a long-term model simulation of the 3-D coupled ecosystem model ECOSMO II for a North Sea and Baltic Sea set-up. The model allows both multi-decadal hindcast simulation of the marine system and specific process studies under controlled environmental conditions. Model results have been analysed with respect to long-term multi-decadal variability in both physical and biological parameters with the help of empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis. The analysis of a 61-year (1948–2008 hindcast reveals a quasi-decadal variation in salinity, temperature and current fields in the North Sea in addition to singular events of major changes during restricted time frames. These changes in hydrodynamic variables were found to be associated with changes in ecosystem productivity that are temporally aligned with the timing of reported regime shifts in the areas. Our results clearly indicate that for analysing ecosystem productivity, spatially explicit methods are indispensable. Especially in the North Sea, a correlation analysis between atmospheric forcing and primary production (PP reveals significant correlations between PP and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and wind forcing for the central part of the region, while the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO and air temperature are correlated to long-term changes in PP in the southern North Sea frontal areas. Since correlations cannot serve to identify causal relationship, we performed scenario model runs perturbing the temporal variability in forcing condition to emphasize specifically the role of solar radiation, wind and eutrophication. The results revealed that, although all parameters are relevant for the magnitude of PP in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, the dominant impact on long-term variability and major shifts in ecosystem productivity was introduced by modulations of the wind fields.

  4. Effects of formulation variables on viability of L. casei loaded in whey protein-Ca alginate microparticles in simulated in vivo conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Smilkov, Katarina; Petrusevska Tozi, Lidija; Petreska Ivanovska, Tanja; Geskovski, Nikola; Petkovska, Rumenka; Glavas Dodov, Marija; Baceva, Katerina; Dimitrovski, Dejan; Mladenovska, Kristina

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this work was to assess the influence of formulation variables of L. casei loaded whey protein-Ca-alginate microparticles on probiotic survival under different conditions, representing simulated in vivo environment.

  5. Study, simulation and design of a 3D clinostat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavone, Valentina; Guarnieri, Vincenzo; Lobascio, Cesare; Soma, Aurelio; Bosso, Nicola; Lamantea, Matteo Maria

    High cost and limited number of physically executable experiments in space have introduced the need for ground simulation systems that enable preparing experiments to be carried out on board, identifying phenomena associated with the altered gravity conditions, and taking advantage of these conditions, as in Biotechnology. Among systems developed to simulate microgravity, especially for life sciences experiments, different types of clinostats were realized. This work deals with mechanical design of a three-dimensional clinostat and simulation of the dynamic behavior of the system by varying the operating parameters. The design and simulation phase was preceded by a careful analysis of the state of art and by the review of the most recent results, in particular from the major investigators of Life Sciences in Space. The mechanical design is quite innovative by adoption of a structure entirely in aluminum, which allows robustness while reducing the overall weight. The transmission system of motion has been optimized by means of brushless DC micro motors, light and compact, which helped to reduce weight, dimensions, power consumption and increase the reliability and durability of the system. The study of the dynamic behavior using SIMPACK, a multibody simulation software, led to results in line with those found in the most important and recent scientific publications. This model was also appropriately configured to represent any desired operating condition, and for eventual system scalability. It would be interesting to generate simulated hypogravity - e.g.: 0.38-g (Mars) or 0.17-g (Moon). This would allow to investigate how terrestrial life forms can grow in other planetary habitats, or to determine the gravity threshold response of different organisms. At the moment, such a system can only be achieved by centrifuges in real microgravity. We are confident that simulation and associated tests with our 3D clinostat can help adjusting the parameters allowing variable g

  6. Variable-spot ion beam figuring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Lixiang; Qiu, Keqiang; Fu, Shaojun

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces a new scheme of ion beam figuring (IBF), or rather variable-spot IBF, which is conducted at a constant scanning velocity with variable-spot ion beam collimated by a variable diaphragm. It aims at improving the reachability and adaptation of the figuring process within the limits of machine dynamics by varying the ion beam spot size instead of the scanning velocity. In contrast to the dwell time algorithm in the conventional IBF, the variable-spot IBF adopts a new algorithm, which consists of the scan path programming and the trajectory optimization using pattern search. In this algorithm, instead of the dwell time, a new concept, integral etching time, is proposed to interpret the process of variable-spot IBF. We conducted simulations to verify its feasibility and practicality. The simulation results indicate the variable-spot IBF is a promising alternative to the conventional approach.

  7. Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Pohl, Benjamin; Robson, Jon; Dong, Buwen

    2017-11-01

    The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920-2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variability of Sahel precipitation, and is representative of a CMIP5 ensemble of simulations (i.e. it simulates the same pattern of precipitation change along with equivalent magnitude and seasonal cycle changes as the CMIP5 ensemble mean). However, CESM1-CAM5 underestimates the long-term decadal variability in Sahel precipitation. For short-term (2010-2049) and mid-term (2030-2069) projections the simulated internal variability component is able to obscure the projected impact of the external forcing. For long-term (2060-2099) projections external forcing induced change becomes stronger than simulated internal variability. Precipitation changes are found to be more robust over the central Sahel than over the western Sahel, where climate change effects struggle to emerge. Ten (thirty) members are needed to separate the 10 year averaged forced response from climate internal variability response in the western Sahel for a long-term (short-term) horizon. Over the central Sahel two members (ten members) are needed for a long-term (short-term) horizon.

  8. Effects of high spatial and temporal resolution Earth observations on simulated hydrometeorological variables in a cropland (southwestern France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Etchanchu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural landscapes are often constituted by a patchwork of crop fields whose seasonal evolution is dependent on specific crop rotation patterns and phenologies. This temporal and spatial heterogeneity affects surface hydrometeorological processes and must be taken into account in simulations of land surface and distributed hydrological models. The Sentinel-2 mission allows for the monitoring of land cover and vegetation dynamics at unprecedented spatial resolutions and revisit frequencies (20 m and 5 days, respectively that are fully compatible with such heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Here, we evaluate the impact of Sentinel-2-like remote sensing data on the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes via the Interactions between the Surface Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA land surface model included in the EXternalized SURface (SURFEX modeling platform. The study focuses on the effect of the leaf area index (LAI spatial and temporal variability on these fluxes. We compare the use of the LAI climatology from ECOCLIMAP-II, used by default in SURFEX-ISBA, and time series of LAI derived from the high-resolution Formosat-2 satellite data (8 m. The study area is an agricultural zone in southwestern France covering 576 km2 (24 km  ×  24 km. An innovative plot-scale approach is used, in which each computational unit has a homogeneous vegetation type. Evaluation of the simulations quality is done by comparing model outputs with in situ eddy covariance measurements of latent heat flux (LE. Our results show that the use of LAI derived from high-resolution remote sensing significantly improves simulated evapotranspiration with respect to ECOCLIMAP-II, especially when the surface is covered with summer crops. The comparison with in situ measurements shows an improvement of roughly 0.3 in the correlation coefficient and a decrease of around 30 % of the root mean square error (RMSE in the simulated evapotranspiration. This

  9. Simulation of Photovoltaic Power Output for Solar Integration Studies in the Southeast US

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Photovoltaic and Distributed Systems Integration Dept.; Martin, Curtis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Photovoltaic and Distributed Systems Integration Dept.; Tuohy, Aidan P. [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2016-06-01

    We describe the method used to simulate one year of AC power at one-minute intervals for a large collection of hypothetical utility-scale photovoltaic plants of varying size, employing either fixed-tilt PV modules or single-axis tracking, and for distribution-connected photovoltaic (DPV) power systems assumed for a number of metropolitan areas. We also describe the simulation of an accompanying day-ahead forecast of hourly AC power for utility-scale plants and DPV systems such that forecast errors are consistent with errors reported for current forecasting methods. The results of these simulations are intended for use in a study that examines the possible effects of increased levels of photovoltaic (PV) generation bulk on power variability within the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and Southern Company service territories.

  10. Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Msongaleli, Barnabas M; Tumbo, S D; Kihupi, N I; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B

    2017-01-01

    Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly.

  11. Simulation of continuous variable quantum games without entanglement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shang-Bin

    2011-07-01

    A simulation scheme of quantum version of Cournot's duopoly is proposed, in which there is a new Nash equilibrium that may also be Pareto optimal without any entanglement involved. The unique property of this simulation scheme is decoherence-free against the symmetric photon loss. Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the asymmetric information on this simulation scheme and investigate the case of asymmetric game caused by asymmetric photon loss. A second-order phase transition-like behavior of the average profits of firms 1 and 2 in a Nash equilibrium can be observed with the change of the degree of asymmetry of the information or the degree of 'virtual cooperation'. It is also found that asymmetric photon loss in this simulation scheme plays a similar role as that with the asymmetric entangled states in the quantum game.

  12. Simulation of continuous variable quantum games without entanglement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Shangbin

    2011-01-01

    A simulation scheme of quantum version of Cournot's duopoly is proposed, in which there is a new Nash equilibrium that may also be Pareto optimal without any entanglement involved. The unique property of this simulation scheme is decoherence-free against the symmetric photon loss. Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the asymmetric information on this simulation scheme and investigate the case of asymmetric game caused by asymmetric photon loss. A second-order phase transition-like behavior of the average profits of firms 1 and 2 in a Nash equilibrium can be observed with the change of the degree of asymmetry of the information or the degree of 'virtual cooperation'. It is also found that asymmetric photon loss in this simulation scheme plays a similar role as that with the asymmetric entangled states in the quantum game.

  13. Simulation of continuous variable quantum games without entanglement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Shangbin, E-mail: stephenli74@yahoo.com.cn [Research and Development Department of Amertron Optoelectronic (Kunshan) Ltd, Jingde Road 28, Kunshan, Suzhou (China)

    2011-07-22

    A simulation scheme of quantum version of Cournot's duopoly is proposed, in which there is a new Nash equilibrium that may also be Pareto optimal without any entanglement involved. The unique property of this simulation scheme is decoherence-free against the symmetric photon loss. Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the asymmetric information on this simulation scheme and investigate the case of asymmetric game caused by asymmetric photon loss. A second-order phase transition-like behavior of the average profits of firms 1 and 2 in a Nash equilibrium can be observed with the change of the degree of asymmetry of the information or the degree of 'virtual cooperation'. It is also found that asymmetric photon loss in this simulation scheme plays a similar role as that with the asymmetric entangled states in the quantum game.

  14. Simulation of spatio-temporal variability of temperature in the Taganrog Bay with MITgcm model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaporozhtsev I. F.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the paper is to analyze efficiency of MITgcm in simulation of temperature fields' variability in the Taganrog Bay. Authors are the first to consider hydrodynamic modeling approach based on MITgcm for this bay. In situ temperature values to be compared with the model data have been obtained during two Murmansk Marine Biological Institute Kola Scientific Center RAS and Southern Scientific Center RAS coupled expeditions in summer and autumn of 2005. The step of calculation grid is agreed with the step of direct measurements stations grid. The obtained during cruises temperature and salinity data cover the Taganrog Bay with 2' latitude and 3' longitude steps (and with 4' latitude and 6' longitude steps correspondingly for thermohaline homogeneous areas. Depth step is 0.5 m. Data for initialization and atmospheric forcing have been taken from public reanalysis databases and atlases, datasets limitations are discussed. To simplify boundary conditions simulation has been carried out for the whole Azov Sea. Numerical experiments series has been fulfilled to determine the optimal start date of simulation and initial constant temperature field. In view of significant experiment time cost optimization task has been solved for restricted parameters values set and with doubled grid steps (4' latitude and 6' longitude steps. The determined values have been used to solve original task of model data verification with the measured ones. As far as the results obtained by the authors with the particular workstation PC are concerned, the conclusion about possibility of MITgcm simulation in real areas without specialized highperformance computers has been given.

  15. Focus on variability : New tools to study intra-individual variability in developmental data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Geert, P; van Dijk, M

    2002-01-01

    In accordance with dynamic systems theory, we assume that variability is an important developmental phenomenon. However, the standard methodological toolkit of the developmental psychologist offers few instruments for the study of variability. In this article we will present several new methods that

  16. Evaluation of Fluent Software for Simulation and Costruction of a Variable Rate Sprinkler for an Autonomous Irrigation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Roshan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Water scarcity is today’s world biggest challenge which requires different countries to manage their water resources in the most efficient way. Sprinkler irrigation increases water consumption efficiency due to more uniform distribution of water across the field. Precision farming is based on the site-specific use of inputs according to soil characteristics and plant needs. One of the main inputs for agricultural production is water. Thus, efficient use of water resources based on variable rate irrigation is considered to be a basic approach of precision irrigation. The main purpose of this study was to simulate and fabricate a variable flow sprinkler, applicable in solid set sprinkler irrigation system. The preliminary drawing of the proposed sprinkler, which equipped with a flow and pressure control plunger, was simulated using Fluent software. The actual sprinkler was then fabricated and evaluated in a field. The performance of the sprinkler was evaluated at three pressure levels, three plunger positions (at the points of the least and biggest sprinkler’s cross section for water passage and three diameters of outlet nozzle opening. Results showed that the plunger had the capability of varying outlet flow and pressure in the sprinkler and trends in flow and pressure variation as affected by the plunger position was very complicated. The Fluent model for conditions with fully open of the plunger and half opened was effectively efficient. However, as the plunger closed the water passage more than the half of cross section, the model did not show an acceptable efficiency.

  17. An Attempt To Estimate The Contribution Of Variability Of Wetland Extent On The Variability Of The Atmospheric Methane Growth Rate In The Years 1993-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringeval, B.; de Noblet-Ducoudre, N.; Prigent, C.; Bousquet, P.

    2006-12-01

    The atmospheric methane growth rate presents lots of seasonal and year-to-year variations. Large uncertainties still exist in the relative part of differents sources and sinks on these variations. We have considered, in this study, the main natural sources of methane and the supposed main variable source, i.e. wetlands, and tried to simulate the variations of their emissions considering the variability of the wetland extent and of the climate. For this study, we use the methane emission model of Walter et al. (2001) and the quantification of the flooded areas for the years 1993-2000 obtained with a suite of satellite observations by Prigent et al. (2001). The data necessary to the Walter's model are obtained with simulation of a dynamic global vegetation model ORCHIDEE (Krinner et al. (2005)) constrained by the NCC climate data (Ngo-Duc et al. (2005)) and after imposing a water-saturated soil to approach productivity of wetlands. We calculate global annual methane emissions from wetlands to be 400 Tg per year, that is higher than previous results obtained with fixed wetland extent. Simulations are realised to estimate the part of variability in the emissions explained by the variability of the wetland extent. It seems that the year-to-year emission variability is mainly explained by the interannual variability of wetland extent. The seasonnal variability is explained for 75% in the tropics and only for 40% in the north of 30°N by variability of wetlands extend. Finally, we compare results with a top-down approach of Bousquet et al.(2006).

  18. A journal bearing with variable geometry for the suppression of vibrations in rotating shafts: Simulation, design, construction and experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chasalevris, Athanasios; Dohnal, Fadi

    2015-02-01

    The idea for a journal bearing with variable geometry was formerly developed and investigated on its principles of operation giving very optimistic theoretical results for the vibration quenching of simple and more complicated rotor bearing systems during the passage through the first critical speed. The journal bearing with variable geometry is presented in this paper in its final form with the detailed design procedure. The current journal bearing was constructed in order to be applied in a simple real rotor bearing system that already exists as an experimental facility. The current paper presents details on the manufactured prototype bearing as an experimental continuation of previous works that presented the simulation of the operating principle of this journal bearing. The design parameters are discussed thoroughly under the numerical simulation for the fluid film pressure in dependency of the variable fluid film thickness during the operation conditions. The implementation of the variable geometry bearing in an experimental rotor bearing system is outlined. Various measurements highlight the efficiency of the proposed bearing element in vibration quenching during the passage through resonance. The inspiration for the current idea is based on the fact that the alteration of the fluid film characteristics of stiffness and damping during the passage through resonance results in vibration quenching. This alteration of the bearing characteristics is achieved by the introduction of an additional fluid film thickness using the passive displacement of the lower half-bearing part. • The contribution of the current journal bearing in vibration quenching. • Experimental evidence for the VGJB contribution.

  19. Variability in yield of faba beans (Vicia faba L.)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grashoff, C.

    1992-01-01

    Yield variability is one of the major problems in growing faba beans. In this thesis, the effect of water supply pattern on yield variability of the crop is studied with experiments in the field and under controlled conditions, and with a simulation model. In a series of field experiments,

  20. Long-Term Variability in o Ceti and Other Mira Variables: Signs of Supergranular Convection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Templeton, Matthew R.; Karovska, Margarita

    2009-09-01

    We describe our study of long-term variability of o Ceti (Mira A), the prototype of the Mira-type pulsating stars. Our study was originally undertaken to search for coherent long-period variability, but the results of our analysis didn't uncover this. However, we detected a low-frequency ``red noise'' in the Fourier spectrum of the o Ceti century-long light curve. We have since found similar behavior in other Miras and pulsating giant stars and have begun a study of a large sample of Mira variables. Similar red noise has been previously detected in red supergiants and attributed to supergranular convection. Its presence in Miras suggests the phenomenon may be ubiquitous in cool giant pulsators. These results support high-angular resolution observations of Miras and supergiants showing asymmetries in their surface brightness distributions, which may be due to large supergranular convection cells. Theoretical modeling, and numerical simulations of pulsation processes in late-type giants and supergiants should therefore take into account the effects of deep convection and large supergranular structures, which in turn may provide important insights into the behavior of Miras and other giant and supergiant pulsators. In this work, we summarize our results for o Ceti, present preliminary results of our broader study of Mira variables, and discuss how the results of this study may be used by future studies of AGB variables.

  1. Modeling, Control, and Numerical Simulations of a Novel Binary-Controlled Variable Stiffness Actuator (BcVSA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irfan Hussain

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This research work aims at realizing a new compliant robotic actuator for safe human-robotic interaction. In this paper, we present the modeling, control, and numerical simulations of a novel Binary-Controlled Variable Stiffness Actuator (BcVSA aiming to be used for the development of a novel compliant robotic manipulator. BcVSA is the proof of concept of the active revolute joint with the variable recruitment of series-parallel elastic elements. We briefly recall the basic design principle which is based on a stiffness varying mechanism consisting of a motor, three inline clutches, and three torsional springs with stiffness values (K0, 2K0, 4K0 connected to the load shaft and the motor shaft through two planetary sun gear trains with ratios (4:1, 4:1 respectively. We present the design concept, stiffness and dynamic modeling, and control of our BcVSA. We implemented three kinds of Multiple Model Predictive Control (MPC to control our actuator. The main motivation of choosing this controller lies in the fact that working principle of multiple MPC and multiple states space representation (stiffness level of our actuator share similar interests. In particular, we implemented Multiple MPC, Multiple Explicit MPC, and Approximated Multiple Explicit MPC. Numerical simulations are performed in order to evaluate their effectiveness for the future experiments on the prototype of our actuator. The simulation results showed that the Multiple MPC, and the Multiple Explicit MPC have similar results from the robustness point of view. On the other hand, the robustness performance of Approximated Multiple Explicit MPC is not good as compared to other controllers but it works in the offline framework while having the capability to compute the sub-optimal results. We also performed the comparison of MPC based controllers with the Computed Torque Control (CTC, and Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR. In future, we are planning to test the presented approach on the

  2. When to conduct probabilistic linkage vs. deterministic linkage? A simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Ying; Matsuyama, Yutaka; Ohashi, Yasuo; Setoguchi, Soko

    2015-08-01

    When unique identifiers are unavailable, successful record linkage depends greatly on data quality and types of variables available. While probabilistic linkage theoretically captures more true matches than deterministic linkage by allowing imperfection in identifiers, studies have shown inconclusive results likely due to variations in data quality, implementation of linkage methodology and validation method. The simulation study aimed to understand data characteristics that affect the performance of probabilistic vs. deterministic linkage. We created ninety-six scenarios that represent real-life situations using non-unique identifiers. We systematically introduced a range of discriminative power, rate of missing and error, and file size to increase linkage patterns and difficulties. We assessed the performance difference of linkage methods using standard validity measures and computation time. Across scenarios, deterministic linkage showed advantage in PPV while probabilistic linkage showed advantage in sensitivity. Probabilistic linkage uniformly outperformed deterministic linkage as the former generated linkages with better trade-off between sensitivity and PPV regardless of data quality. However, with low rate of missing and error in data, deterministic linkage performed not significantly worse. The implementation of deterministic linkage in SAS took less than 1min, and probabilistic linkage took 2min to 2h depending on file size. Our simulation study demonstrated that the intrinsic rate of missing and error of linkage variables was key to choosing between linkage methods. In general, probabilistic linkage was a better choice, but for exceptionally good quality data (<5% error), deterministic linkage was a more resource efficient choice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. MixSim : An R Package for Simulating Data to Study Performance of Clustering Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Melnykov

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The R package MixSim is a new tool that allows simulating mixtures of Gaussian distributions with different levels of overlap between mixture components. Pairwise overlap, defined as a sum of two misclassification probabilities, measures the degree of interaction between components and can be readily employed to control the clustering complexity of datasets simulated from mixtures. These datasets can then be used for systematic performance investigation of clustering and finite mixture modeling algorithms. Among other capabilities of MixSim, there are computing the exact overlap for Gaussian mixtures, simulating Gaussian and non-Gaussian data, simulating outliers and noise variables, calculating various measures of agreement between two partitionings, and constructing parallel distribution plots for the graphical display of finite mixture models. All features of the package are illustrated in great detail. The utility of the package is highlighted through a small comparison study of several popular clustering algorithms.

  4. Climatological variability in regional air pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shannon, J.D.; Trexler, E.C. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    Although some air pollution modeling studies examine events that have already occurred (e.g., the Chernobyl plume) with relevant meteorological conditions largely known, most pollution modeling studies address expected or potential scenarios for the future. Future meteorological conditions, the major pollutant forcing function other than emissions, are inherently uncertain although much relevant information is contained in past observational data. For convenience in our discussions of regional pollutant variability unrelated to emission changes, we define meteorological variability as short-term (within-season) pollutant variability and climatological variability as year-to-year changes in seasonal averages and accumulations of pollutant variables. In observations and in some of our simulations the effects are confounded because for seasons of two different years both the mean and the within-season character of a pollutant variable may change. Effects of climatological and meteorological variability on means and distributions of air pollution parameters, particularly those related to regional visibility, are illustrated. Over periods of up to a decade climatological variability may mask or overstate improvements resulting from emission controls. The importance of including climatological uncertainties in assessing potential policies, particularly when based partly on calculated source-receptor relationships, is highlighted

  5. Seasonal variability of salinity and circulation in a silled estuarine fjord: A numerical model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawase, Mitsuhiro; Bang, Bohyun

    2013-12-01

    A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to study seasonal variability of circulation and hydrography in Hood Canal, Washington, United States, an estuarine fjord that develops seasonally hypoxic conditions. The model is validated with data from year 2006, and is shown to be capable of quantitatively realistic simulation of hydrographic variability. Sensitivity experiments show the largest cause of seasonal variability to be that of salinity at the mouth of the fjord, which drives an annual deep water renewal in late summer-early autumn. Variability of fresh water input from the watershed also causes significant but secondary changes, especially in winter. Local wind stress has little effect over the seasonal timescale. Further experiments, in which one forcing parameter is abruptly altered while others are kept constant, show that outside salinity change induces an immediate response in the exchange circulation that, however, decays as a transient as the system equilibrates. In contrast, a change in the river input initiates gradual adjustment towards a new equilibrium value for the exchange transport. It is hypothesized that the spectral character of the system response to river variability will be redder than to salinity variability. This is demonstrated with a stochastically forced, semi-analytical model of fjord exchange circulation. While the exchange circulation in Hood Canal appears less sensitive to the river variability than to the outside hydrography at seasonal timescales, at decadal and longer timescales both could become significant factors in affecting the exchange circulation.

  6. Remote ENSO forcing versus local air-sea interaction in QTCM: a sensitivity study to intraseasonal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gushchina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The skill of a newly designed global atmospheric model of intermediate complexity - QTCM (for quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model in simulating the teleconnections is investigated. The role of the ENSO remote forcing over the Pacific surrounding regions is emphasized from sensitivity experiments to critical parameters of the model. The role of the tropical intraseasonal variability (ITV on the simulated ENSO teleconnection pattern is estimated using the methodology proposed by Lin et al. (2000 allowing to damp the energy of ITV in the model. The reduction of intraseasonal variability allows emphasizing the forced response of the atmosphere and eases the detection of local coupled atmosphere-ocean patterns. It was shown that the simulated ITV has an impact on the ENSO teleconnection pattern both in the mid-latitudes and in regions of ascending and descending branches of Walker circulation cells in the tropics.

  7. Visuospatial ability factors and performance variables in laparoscopic simulator training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luursema, J.M.; Verwey, Willem B.; Burie, Remke

    2012-01-01

    Visuospatial ability has been shown to be important to several aspects of laparoscopic performance, including simulator training. Only a limited subset of visuospatial ability factors however has been investigated in such studies. Tests for different visuospatial ability factors differ in stimulus

  8. Simulating Ordinal Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Pier Alda; Barbiero, Alessandro

    2012-01-01

    The increasing use of ordinal variables in different fields has led to the introduction of new statistical methods for their analysis. The performance of these methods needs to be investigated under a number of experimental conditions. Procedures to simulate from ordinal variables are then required. In this article, we deal with simulation from…

  9. Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

    2017-10-01

    Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

  10. Simulated dynamic response of a multi-stage compressor with variable molecular weight flow medium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Dale A.

    1995-01-01

    A mathematical model of a multi-stage compressor with variable molecular weight flow medium is derived. The modeled system consists of a five stage, six cylinder, double acting, piston type compressor. Each stage is followed by a water cooled heat exchanger which serves to transfer the heat of compression from the gas. A high molecular weight gas (CFC-12) mixed with air in varying proportions is introduced to the suction of the compressor. Condensation of the heavy gas may occur in the upper stage heat exchangers. The state equations for the system are integrated using the Advanced Continuous Simulation Language (ACSL) for determining the system's dynamic and steady state characteristics under varying operating conditions.

  11. A simulation study on the operating performance of a solar-air source heat pump water heater

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Guoying; Zhang Xiaosong; Deng Shiming

    2006-01-01

    A simulation study on the operating performance of a new type of solar-air source heat pump water heater (SAS-HPWH) has been presented. The SAS-HPWH used a specially designed flat-plate heat collector/evaporator with spiral-finned tubes to obtain energy from both solar irradiation and ambient air for hot water heating. Using the meteorological data in Nanjing, China, the simulation results based on 150 L water heating capacity showed that such a SAS-HPWH can heat water up to 55 deg. C efficiently under various weather conditions all year around. In this simulation study, the influences of solar radiation, ambient temperature and compressor capacity on the performance of the SAS-HPWH were analyzed. In order to improve the overall operating performance, the use of a variable-capacity compressor has been proposed

  12. A state-and-transition simulation modeling approach for estimating the historical range of variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kori Blankenship

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Reference ecological conditions offer important context for land managers as they assess the condition of their landscapes and provide benchmarks for desired future conditions. State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs are commonly used to estimate reference conditions that can be used to evaluate current ecosystem conditions and to guide land management decisions and activities. The LANDFIRE program created more than 1,000 STSMs and used them to assess departure from a mean reference value for ecosystems in the United States. While the mean provides a useful benchmark, land managers and researchers are often interested in the range of variability around the mean. This range, frequently referred to as the historical range of variability (HRV, offers model users improved understanding of ecosystem function, more information with which to evaluate ecosystem change and potentially greater flexibility in management options. We developed a method for using LANDFIRE STSMs to estimate the HRV around the mean reference condition for each model state in ecosystems by varying the fire probabilities. The approach is flexible and can be adapted for use in a variety of ecosystems. HRV analysis can be combined with other information to help guide complex land management decisions.

  13. Leading teams during simulated pediatric emergencies: a pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coolen EH

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Ester H Coolen,1 Jos M Draaisma,2 Sabien den Hamer,3 Jan L Loeffen2 1Department of Pediatric Surgery, Amalia Children’s Hospital, Radboud University Medical Center, 2Department of Pediatrics, Amalia Children’s Hospital, Radboud University Medical Center, 3Department of Communication Science, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands Purpose: Leadership has been identified as a key variable for the functioning of teams and as one of the main reasons for success or failure of team-based work systems. Pediatricians often function as team leaders in the resuscitation of a critically ill child. However, pediatric residents often report having little opportunity to perform in the role of team leader during residency. In order to gain more insight into leadership skills and behaviors, we classified leadership styles of pediatric residents during simulated emergencies. Methods: We conducted a prospective quantitative study to investigate leadership styles used by pediatric residents during simulated emergencies with clinical deterioration of a child at a pediatric ward. Using videotaped scenarios of 48 simulated critical events among 12 residents, we were able to classify verbal and nonverbal communication into different leadership styles according to the situational leadership theory. Results: The coaching style (mean 54.5%, SD 7.8 is the most frequently applied by residents, followed by the directing style (mean 35.6%, SD 4.1. This pattern conforms to the task- and role-related requirements in our scenarios and it also conforms to the concept of situational leadership. We did not find any significant differences in leadership style according to the postgraduate year or scenario content. Conclusion: The model used in this pilot study helps us to gain a better understanding of the development of effective leadership behavior and supports the applicability of situational leadership theory in training leadership skills during residency. Keywords

  14. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

    2015-01-01

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  15. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Jing-Cheng [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Huang, Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, Yuefei [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Hua [College of Science and Engineering, Texas A& M University — Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412-5797 (United States); Li, Zhong [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Chen, Qiuwen [Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing 210029 (China)

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  16. Evaluation of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models within South America-CORDEX simulations: ENSO related interannual precipitation variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozkurt, D.; Rojas, M.

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to investigate and compare the ability of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate mean and interannual variability of precipitation over South America with a special focus on Chile. The HadGEM3-RA is a regional version of the newly developed HadGEM3 global model and the HadRM3P is based on the earlier HadCM3 global model. The RCMs simulations were carried out at 0.44o x 0.44o degree resolution over South America-CORDEX domain for the period 1989-2008. The initial and boundary conditions were provided by ERA-Interim Reanalysis data available at 6-h intervals with a resolution of 1.5o x 1.5o in the horizontal and 37 pressure levels. We compare the results against a number of observational datasets, including gridded dataset of CRU, UDEL, TRMM and GPCP. Moreover, available station data is derived from Direccion General de Aguas (DGA) mainly for Central Chile, which is the heartland of Chile with the highest population and important economic activities. The analysis is mainly focused on evaluating the abilities of the RCMs in simulating spatial pattern and ENSO related precipitation variability in different subregions of South America-CORDEX domain. In general, both RCMs have a good skill in reproducing spatial pattern and annual cycle of observed precipitation in climatically different subregions. However, both RCMs tend to underestimate precipitation in the Amazon Basin, which is more pronounced in the HadRM3P simulations. On the contrary, the RCMs tend to overestimate the precipitation over the Andes and southern Chile. The overestimation could be related to the physical core of the RCMs, but the discrepancies could also arise due to insufficient station network, especially in the mountainous areas, potentially yielding smaller precipitation quantities in the observed data than the true ones. In terms of interannual variability, the models capture ENSO related wet and dry interannual precipitation

  17. Factoring vs linear modeling in rate estimation: a simulation study of relative accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maldonado, G; Greenland, S

    1998-07-01

    A common strategy for modeling dose-response in epidemiology is to transform ordered exposures and covariates into sets of dichotomous indicator variables (that is, to factor the variables). Factoring tends to increase estimation variance, but it also tends to decrease bias and thus may increase or decrease total accuracy. We conducted a simulation study to examine the impact of factoring on the accuracy of rate estimation. Factored and unfactored Poisson regression models were fit to follow-up study datasets that were randomly generated from 37,500 population model forms that ranged from subadditive to supramultiplicative. In the situations we examined, factoring sometimes substantially improved accuracy relative to fitting the corresponding unfactored model, sometimes substantially decreased accuracy, and sometimes made little difference. The difference in accuracy between factored and unfactored models depended in a complicated fashion on the difference between the true and fitted model forms, the strength of exposure and covariate effects in the population, and the study size. It may be difficult in practice to predict when factoring is increasing or decreasing accuracy. We recommend, therefore, that the strategy of factoring variables be supplemented with other strategies for modeling dose-response.

  18. MAPPS (Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation): a computer simulation model for human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.

    1985-01-01

    A computer model has been developed, sensitivity tested, and evaluated capable of generating reliable estimates of human performance measures in the nuclear power plant (NPP) maintenance context. The model, entitled MAPPS (Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation), is of the simulation type and is task-oriented. It addresses a number of person-machine, person-environment, and person-person variables and is capable of providing the user with a rich spectrum of important performance measures including mean time for successful task performance by a maintenance team and maintenance team probability of task success. These two measures are particularly important for input to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies which were the primary impetus for the development of MAPPS. The simulation nature of the model along with its generous input parameters and output variables allows its usefulness to extend beyond its input to PRA

  19. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-08

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 km and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late 21st century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late 21st century.

  20. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-08

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  1. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  2. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2018-06-01

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  3. Two methods for studying the X-ray variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Shu-Ping; Ji, Li; Méndez, Mariano; Wang, Na; Liu, Siming; Li, Xiang-Dong

    2016-01-01

    The X-ray aperiodic variability and quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) are the important tools to study the structure of the accretion flow of X-ray binaries. However, the origin of the complex X-ray variability from X-ray binaries remains yet unsolved. We proposed two methods for studying the X-ray

  4. Leading teams during simulated pediatric emergencies: a pilot study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coolen, Ester H; Draaisma, Jos M; den Hamer, Sabien; Loeffen, Jan L

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Leadership has been identified as a key variable for the functioning of teams and as one of the main reasons for success or failure of team-based work systems. Pediatricians often function as team leaders in the resuscitation of a critically ill child. However, pediatric residents often report having little opportunity to perform in the role of team leader during residency. In order to gain more insight into leadership skills and behaviors, we classified leadership styles of pediatric residents during simulated emergencies. Methods We conducted a prospective quantitative study to investigate leadership styles used by pediatric residents during simulated emergencies with clinical deterioration of a child at a pediatric ward. Using videotaped scenarios of 48 simulated critical events among 12 residents, we were able to classify verbal and nonverbal communication into different leadership styles according to the situational leadership theory. Results The coaching style (mean 54.5%, SD 7.8) is the most frequently applied by residents, followed by the directing style (mean 35.6%, SD 4.1). This pattern conforms to the task- and role-related requirements in our scenarios and it also conforms to the concept of situational leadership. We did not find any significant differences in leadership style according to the postgraduate year or scenario content. Conclusion The model used in this pilot study helps us to gain a better understanding of the development of effective leadership behavior and supports the applicability of situational leadership theory in training leadership skills during residency. PMID:25610010

  5. A simulation study of sample size demonstrated the importance of the number of events per variable to develop prediction models in clustered data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wynants, L.; Bouwmeester, W.; Moons, K. G. M.; Moerbeek, M.; Timmerman, D.; Van Huffel, S.; Van Calster, B.; Vergouwe, Y.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: This study aims to investigate the influence of the amount of clustering [intraclass correlation (ICC) = 0%, 5%, or 20%], the number of events per variable (EPV) or candidate predictor (EPV = 5, 10, 20, or 50), and backward variable selection on the performance of prediction models.

  6. Conducting Simulation Studies in the R Programming Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallgren, Kevin A

    2013-10-12

    Simulation studies allow researchers to answer specific questions about data analysis, statistical power, and best-practices for obtaining accurate results in empirical research. Despite the benefits that simulation research can provide, many researchers are unfamiliar with available tools for conducting their own simulation studies. The use of simulation studies need not be restricted to researchers with advanced skills in statistics and computer programming, and such methods can be implemented by researchers with a variety of abilities and interests. The present paper provides an introduction to methods used for running simulation studies using the R statistical programming environment and is written for individuals with minimal experience running simulation studies or using R. The paper describes the rationale and benefits of using simulations and introduces R functions relevant for many simulation studies. Three examples illustrate different applications for simulation studies, including (a) the use of simulations to answer a novel question about statistical analysis, (b) the use of simulations to estimate statistical power, and (c) the use of simulations to obtain confidence intervals of parameter estimates through bootstrapping. Results and fully annotated syntax from these examples are provided.

  7. A study of applying variable valve timing to highly rated diesel engines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stone, C R; Leonard, H J [comps.; Brunel Univ., Uxbridge (United Kingdom); Charlton, S J [comp.; Bath Univ. (United Kingdom)

    1992-10-01

    The main objective of the research was to use Simulation Program for Internal Combustion Engines (SPICE) to quantify the potential offered by Variable Valve Timing (VVT) in improving engine performance. A model has been constructed of a particular engine using SPICE. The model has been validated with experimental data, and it has been shown that accurate predictions are made when the valve timing is changed. (author)

  8. A Study of Precipitation Climatology and Its Variability over Europe Using an Advanced Regional Model (WRF)

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2015-03-06

    In recent years long-term precipitation trends on a regional scale have been given emphasis due to the impacts of global warming on regional hydrology. In this study, regional precipitation trends are simulated over the Europe continent for a 60-year period in 1950-2010 using an advanced regional model, WRF, to study extreme precipitation events over Europe. The model runs continuously for each year during the period at a horizontal resolution of 25 km with initial/ boundary conditions derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 2.5 degree reanalysis data sets. The E-OBS 0.25 degree rainfall observation analysis is used for model validation. Results indicate that the model could reproduce the spatial annual rainfall pattern over Europe with low amounts (250 - 750 mm) in Iberian Peninsula, moderate to large amounts (750 - 1500 mm) in central, eastern and northeastern parts of Europe and extremely heavy falls (1500 - 2000 mm) in hilly areas of Alps with a slight overestimation in Alps and underestimation in other parts of Europe. The regional model integrations showed increasing errors (mean absolute errors) and decreasing correlations with increasing time scale (daily to seasonal). Rainfall is simulated relatively better in Iberian Peninsula, northwest and central parts of Europe. A large spatial variability with the highest number of wet days over eastern, central Europe and Alps (~200 days/year) and less number of wet days over Iberian Peninsula (≤150 days/year) is also found in agreement with observations. The model could simulate the spatial rainfall climate variability reasonably well with low rainfall days (1 - 10 mm/days) in almost all zones, heavy rainfall events in western, northern, southeastern hilly and coastal zones and extremely heavy rainfall events in northern coastal zones. An increasing trend of heavy rainfall in central, southern and southeastern parts, a decreasing trend in Iberian Peninsula and a steady trend in other

  9. Investigating the relationship between predictability and imbalance in minimisation: a simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The use of restricted randomisation methods such as minimisation is increasing. This paper investigates under what conditions it is preferable to use restricted randomisation in order to achieve balance between treatment groups at baseline with regard to important prognostic factors and whether trialists should be concerned that minimisation may be considered deterministic. Methods Using minimisation as the randomisation algorithm, treatment allocation was simulated for hypothetical patients entering a theoretical study having values for prognostic factors randomly assigned with a stipulated probability. The number of times the allocation could have been determined with certainty and the imbalances which might occur following randomisation using minimisation were examined. Results Overall treatment balance is relatively unaffected by reducing the probability of allocation to optimal treatment group (P) but within-variable balance can be affected by any P <1. This effect is magnified by increased numbers of prognostic variables, the number of categories within them and the prevalence of these categories within the study population. Conclusions In general, for smaller trials, probability of treatment allocation to the treatment group with fewer numbers requires a larger value P to keep treatment and variable groups balanced. For larger trials probability of allocation values from P = 0.5 to P = 0.8 can be used while still maintaining balance. For one prognostic variable there is no significant benefit in terms of predictability in reducing the value of P. However, for more than one prognostic variable, significant reduction in levels of predictability can be achieved with the appropriate choice of P for the given trial design. PMID:23537389

  10. Simulation of variable-density flow and transport of reactive and nonreactive solutes during a tracer test at Cape Cod, Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hubao; Schwartz, Frank W.; Wood, Warren W.; Garabedian, S.P.; LeBlanc, D.R.

    1998-01-01

    A multispecies numerical code was developed to simulate flow and mass transport with kinetic adsorption in variable-density flow systems. The two-dimensional code simulated the transport of bromide (Br−), a nonreactive tracer, and lithium (Li+), a reactive tracer, in a large-scale tracer test performed in a sand-and-gravel aquifer at Cape Cod, Massachusetts. A two-fraction kinetic adsorption model was implemented to simulate the interaction of Li+ with the aquifer solids. Initial estimates for some of the transport parameters were obtained from a nonlinear least squares curve-fitting procedure, where the breakthrough curves from column experiments were matched with one-dimensional theoretical models. The numerical code successfully simulated the basic characteristics of the two plumes in the tracer test. At early times the centers of mass of Br− and Li+ sank because the two plumes were closely coupled to the density-driven velocity field. At later times the rate of downward movement in the Br− plume due to gravity slowed significantly because of dilution by dispersion. The downward movement of the Li+ plume was negligible because the two plumes moved in locally different velocity regimes, where Li+ transport was retarded relative to Br−. The maximum extent of downward transport of the Li+ plume was less than that of the Br− plume. This study also found that at early times the downward movement of a plume created by a three-dimensional source could be much more extensive than the case with a two-dimensional source having the same cross-sectional area. The observed shape of the Br− plume at Cape Cod was simulated by adding two layers with different hydraulic conductivities at shallow depth across the region. The large dispersion and asymmetrical shape of the Li+ plume were simulated by including kinetic adsorption-desorption reactions.

  11. The new ATLAS Fast Calorimeter Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Jacka, Petr; The ATLAS collaboration

    2018-01-01

    With the huge amount of data collected with ATLAS, there is a need to produce a large number of simulated events. These productions are very CPU and time consuming when using the full GEANT4 simulation. FastCaloSim is a program to quickly simulate the ATLAS calorimeter response, based on a parameterization of the GEANT4 energy deposits of several kinds of particles in a grid of energy and eta. A new version of FastCaloSim is under development and its integration into the ATLAS simulation infrastructure is ongoing. The use of machine learning techniques improves the performance and decreases the memory usage. Dedicated parameterizations for the forward calorimeters are being studied. First results of the new FastCaloSim show substantial improvements of the description of energy and shower shape variables, including the variables for jet substructure.

  12. Evaluating the Impact of Localized GCM Grid Refinement on Regional Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Synoptic Variability using Variable-Resolution CAM-SE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarzycki, C.; Jablonowski, C.

    2013-12-01

    effect of local refinement on features such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, and African easterly waves. We discuss the performance of the CAM5 physical parameterization package in variable-resolution simulations and whether or not the addition of increased resolution patches adds bias to key climate metrics such as rainfall and cloud fraction at the regional level. Lastly, we highlight the potential computational advantages of using scalable variable-resolution setups in either short-term process or long-term climate studies.

  13. The number of subjects per variable required in linear regression analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Austin (Peter); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractObjectives To determine the number of independent variables that can be included in a linear regression model. Study Design and Setting We used a series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine the impact of the number of subjects per variable (SPV) on the accuracy of estimated regression

  14. Bio-inspired online variable recruitment control of fluidic artificial muscles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Tyler E.; Chapman, Edward M.; Bryant, Matthew

    2016-12-01

    This paper details the creation of a hybrid variable recruitment control scheme for fluidic artificial muscle (FAM) actuators with an emphasis on maximizing system efficiency and switching control performance. Variable recruitment is the process of altering a system’s active number of actuators, allowing operation in distinct force regimes. Previously, FAM variable recruitment was only quantified with offline, manual valve switching; this study addresses the creation and characterization of novel, on-line FAM switching control algorithms. The bio-inspired algorithms are implemented in conjunction with a PID and model-based controller, and applied to a simulated plant model. Variable recruitment transition effects and chatter rejection are explored via a sensitivity analysis, allowing a system designer to weigh tradeoffs in actuator modeling, algorithm choice, and necessary hardware. Variable recruitment is further developed through simulation of a robotic arm tracking a variety of spline position inputs, requiring several levels of actuator recruitment. Switching controller performance is quantified and compared with baseline systems lacking variable recruitment. The work extends current variable recruitment knowledge by creating novel online variable recruitment control schemes, and exploring how online actuator recruitment affects system efficiency and control performance. Key topics associated with implementing a variable recruitment scheme, including the effects of modeling inaccuracies, hardware considerations, and switching transition concerns are also addressed.

  15. Research on the Diesel Engine with Sliding Mode Variable Structure Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhexuan; Mao, Xiaobing; Cai, Le

    2018-05-01

    This study constructed the nonlinear mathematical model of the diesel engine high-pressure common rail (HPCR) system through two polynomial fitting which was treated as a kind of affine nonlinear system. Based on sliding-mode variable structure control (SMVSC) theory, a sliding-mode controller for affine nonlinear systems was designed for achieving the control of common rail pressure and the diesel engine’s rotational speed. Finally, on the simulation platform of MATLAB, the designed nonlinear HPCR system was simulated. The simulation results demonstrated that sliding-mode variable structure control algorithm shows favourable control performances which are overcoming the shortcomings of traditional PID control in overshoot, parameter adjustment, system precision, adjustment time and ascending time.

  16. Study preferences for exemplar variability in self-regulated category learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlheim, Christopher N; DeSoto, K Andrew

    2017-02-01

    Increasing exemplar variability during category learning can enhance classification of novel exemplars from studied categories. Four experiments examined whether participants preferred variability when making study choices with the goal of later classifying novel exemplars. In Experiments 1-3, participants were familiarised with exemplars of birds from multiple categories prior to making category-level assessments of learning and subsequent choices about whether to receive more variability or repetitions of exemplars during study. After study, participants classified novel exemplars from studied categories. The majority of participants showed a consistent preference for variability in their study, but choices were not related to category-level assessments of learning. Experiment 4 provided evidence that study preferences were based primarily on theoretical beliefs in that most participants indicated a preference for variability on questionnaires that did not include prior experience with exemplars. Potential directions for theoretical development and applications to education are discussed.

  17. Variable-Intensity Simulated Team-Sport Exercise Increases Daily Protein Requirements in Active Males.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Packer, Jeffrey E; Wooding, Denise J; Kato, Hiroyuki; Courtney-Martin, Glenda; Pencharz, Paul B; Moore, Daniel R

    2017-01-01

    Protein requirements are generally increased in strength and endurance trained athletes relative to their sedentary peers. However, less is known about the daily requirement for this important macronutrient in individuals performing variable intensity, stop-and-go type exercise that is typical for team sport athletes. The objective of the present study was to determine protein requirements in active, trained adult males performing a simulated soccer match using the minimally invasive indicator amino acid oxidation (IAAO) method. After 2 days of controlled diet (1.2 g⋅kg -1 ⋅day -1 protein), seven trained males (23 ± 1 years; 177.5 ± 6.7 cm; 82.3 ± 6.1 kg; 13.5% ± 4.7% body fat; 52.3 ± 5.9 ml O 2 ⋅kg -1 ⋅min -1 ; mean ± SD) performed an acute bout of variable intensity exercise in the form of a modified Loughborough Intermittent Shuttle Test (4 × 15 min of exercise over 75 min). Immediately after exercise, hourly meals were consumed providing a variable amount of protein (0.2-2.6 g⋅kg -1 ⋅day -1 ) and sufficient energy and carbohydrate (6 g⋅kg -1 ⋅day -1 ). Protein was provided as a crystalline amino acids modeled after egg protein with the exception of phenylalanine and tyrosine, which were provided in excess to ensure the metabolic partitioning of the indicator amino acid (i.e., [1- 13 C]phenylalanine included within the phenylalanine intake) was directed toward oxidation when protein intake was limiting. Whole body phenylalanine flux and 13 CO 2 excretion (F 13 CO 2 ) were determined at metabolic and isotopic steady state from urine and breath samples, respectively. Biphasic linear regression analysis was performed on F 13 CO 2 to determine the estimated average requirement (EAR) for protein with a safe intake defined as the upper 95% confidence interval. Phenylalanine flux was not impacted by protein intake ( P  = 0.45). Bi-phase linear regression ( R 2  = 0.64) of F 13 CO 2 resulted

  18. Variable-Intensity Simulated Team-Sport Exercise Increases Daily Protein Requirements in Active Males

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey E. Packer

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Protein requirements are generally increased in strength and endurance trained athletes relative to their sedentary peers. However, less is known about the daily requirement for this important macronutrient in individuals performing variable intensity, stop-and-go type exercise that is typical for team sport athletes. The objective of the present study was to determine protein requirements in active, trained adult males performing a simulated soccer match using the minimally invasive indicator amino acid oxidation (IAAO method. After 2 days of controlled diet (1.2 g⋅kg−1⋅day−1 protein, seven trained males (23 ± 1 years; 177.5 ± 6.7 cm; 82.3 ± 6.1 kg; 13.5% ± 4.7% body fat; 52.3 ± 5.9 ml O2⋅kg−1⋅min-1; mean ± SD performed an acute bout of variable intensity exercise in the form of a modified Loughborough Intermittent Shuttle Test (4 × 15 min of exercise over 75 min. Immediately after exercise, hourly meals were consumed providing a variable amount of protein (0.2–2.6 g⋅kg−1⋅day−1 and sufficient energy and carbohydrate (6 g⋅kg−1⋅day−1. Protein was provided as a crystalline amino acids modeled after egg protein with the exception of phenylalanine and tyrosine, which were provided in excess to ensure the metabolic partitioning of the indicator amino acid (i.e., [1-13C]phenylalanine included within the phenylalanine intake was directed toward oxidation when protein intake was limiting. Whole body phenylalanine flux and 13CO2 excretion (F13CO2 were determined at metabolic and isotopic steady state from urine and breath samples, respectively. Biphasic linear regression analysis was performed on F13CO2 to determine the estimated average requirement (EAR for protein with a safe intake defined as the upper 95% confidence interval. Phenylalanine flux was not impacted by protein intake (P = 0.45. Bi-phase linear regression (R2 = 0.64 of F13CO2 resulted in an EAR

  19. Conducting Simulation Studies in the R Programming Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin A. Hallgren

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulation studies allow researchers to answer specific questions about data analysis, statistical power, and best-practices for obtainingaccurate results in empirical research. Despite the benefits that simulation research can provide, many researchers are unfamiliar with available tools for conducting their own simulation studies. The use of simulation studies need not be restricted toresearchers with advanced skills in statistics and computer programming, and such methods can be implemented by researchers with a variety of abilities and interests. The present paper provides an introduction to methods used for running simulationstudies using the R statistical programming environment and is written for individuals with minimal experience running simulation studies or using R. The paper describes the rationale and benefits of using simulations and introduces R functions relevant for many simulation studies. Three examples illustrate different applications for simulation studies, including (a the use of simulations to answer a novel question about statistical analysis, (b the use of simulations to estimate statistical power, and (c the use of simulations to obtain confidence intervals of parameter estimates throughbootstrapping. Results and fully annotated syntax from these examples are provided.

  20. A Study of the Kepler K2 Variable EPIC 211957146 Exhibiting a Variable O’ Connell Effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sriram, K.; Malu, S.; Rao, P. Vivekananda; Choi, C. S.

    2017-01-01

    We present the multi-band photometric and spectroscopic study of an over-contact binary system, EPIC 211957146. The light curves exhibit a variable O’ Connell effect, confirmed from our observational data and the Kepler K2 data. The best photometric solution incorporating a dark spot over the primary component unveils that the system has a low-mass ratio ( q  ∼ 0.17) and a high inclination ( i  ∼ 85°). To confirm the solution and constrain the uncertainty, Monte-Carlo simulations are performed and the results are reported. Based on the O–C diagram analysis, we see that the variable shows a period increase at the rate of dP / dt  ∼ 1.06 × 10 −6 days yr −1 , which is higher than the theoretically predicted value. Presence of a third body having a period of ∼16.23 years is evident from the O–C diagram. No filled-in effect is observed in the H α line, while the effect is vividly present in the Na line. From the Kepler K2 data, we found that the primary and secondary minima exhibit an anti-correlated O–C variation followed by an erratic behavior. This is possibly caused by the longitudinal motion of the spot, and hence, we set a lower limit of ∼40 days for the spot modulation. We also observe a possibly associated photometric difference in the primary depth by comparing our light curves with Kepler K2 normalized light curves. This system has a low-mass ratio and a high fill-out factor, and, theoretically, such a physical configuration would lead to a merger.

  1. Two new DOSXYZnrc sources for 4D Monte Carlo simulations of continuously variable beam configurations, with applications to RapidArc, VMAT, TomoTherapy and CyberKnife

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobo, Julio; Popescu, I Antoniu

    2010-01-01

    We present two new Monte Carlo sources for the DOSXYZnrc code, which can be used to compute dose distributions due to continuously variable beam configurations. These sources support a continuously rotating gantry and collimator, dynamic multileaf collimator (MLC) motion, variable monitor unit (MU) rate, couch rotation and translation in any direction, arbitrary isocentre motion with respect to the patient and variable source-to-axis distance (SAD). These features make them applicable to Monte Carlo simulations for RapidArc(TM), Elekta VMAT, TomoTherapy(TM) and CyberKnife(TM). Unique to these sources is the synchronization between the motion in the DOSXYZnrc geometry and the motion within the linac head, represented by a shared library (either a BEAMnrc accelerator with dynamic component modules, or an external library). The simulations are achieved in single runs, with no intermediate phase space files.

  2. Cost Analysis of Poor Quality Using a Software Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Fabianová

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The issues of quality, cost of poor quality and factors affecting quality are crucial to maintaining a competitiveness regarding to business activities. Use of software applications and computer simulation enables more effective quality management. Simulation tools offer incorporating the variability of more variables in experiments and evaluating their common impact on the final output. The article presents a case study focused on the possibility of using computer simulation Monte Carlo in the field of quality management. Two approaches for determining the cost of poor quality are introduced here. One from retrospective scope of view, where the cost of poor quality and production process are calculated based on historical data. The second approach uses the probabilistic characteristics of the input variables by means of simulation, and reflects as a perspective view of the costs of poor quality. Simulation output in the form of a tornado and sensitivity charts complement the risk analysis.

  3. Interprofessional simulated learning: short-term associations between simulation and interprofessional collaboration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Soeren Mary

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health professions education programs use simulation for teaching and maintaining clinical procedural skills. Simulated learning activities are also becoming useful methods of instruction for interprofessional education. The simulation environment for interprofessional training allows participants to explore collaborative ways of improving communicative aspects of clinical care. Simulation has shown communication improvement within and between health care professions, but the impacts of teamwork simulation on perceptions of others' interprofessional practices and one's own attitudes toward teamwork are largely unknown. Methods A single-arm intervention study tested the association between simulated team practice and measures of interprofessional collaboration, nurse-physician relationships, and attitudes toward health care teams. Participants were 154 post-licensure nurses, allied health professionals, and physicians. Self- and proxy-report survey measurements were taken before simulation training and two and six weeks after. Results Multilevel modeling revealed little change over the study period. Variation in interprofessional collaboration and attitudes was largely attributable to between-person characteristics. A constructed categorical variable indexing 'leadership capacity' found that participants with highest and lowest values were more likely to endorse shared team leadership over physician centrality. Conclusion Results from this study indicate that focusing interprofessional simulation education on shared leadership may provide the most leverage to improve interprofessional care.

  4. The Impact of Inpatient Boarding on ED Efficiency: A Discrete-Event Simulation Study

    OpenAIRE

    Bair, Aaron E.; Song, Wheyming T.; Chen, Yi-Chun; Morris, Beth A.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, a discrete-event simulation approach was used to model Emergency Department’s (ED) patient flow to investigate the effect of inpatient boarding on the ED efficiency in terms of the National Emergency Department Crowding Scale (NEDOCS) score and the rate of patients who leave without being seen (LWBS). The decision variable in this model was the boarder-released-ratio defined as the ratio of admitted patients whose boarding time is zero to all admitted patients. Our analysis sho...

  5. Measuring The Variability Of Gamma-Ray Sources With AGILE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Andrew W.; Vercellone, Stefano; Pellizzoni, Alberto; Tavani, Marco

    2005-01-01

    Variability in the gamma-ray flux above 100 MeV at various time scales is one of the primary characteristics of the sources detected by EGRET, both allowing the identification of individual sources and constraining the unidentified source classes. We present a detailed simulation of the capacity of AGILE to characterize the variability of gamma-ray sources, discussing the implications for source population studies

  6. Ocean carbon and heat variability in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, J. L.; Waugh, D.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Ocean carbon and heat content are very important for regulating global climate. Furthermore, due to lack of observations and dependence on parameterizations, there has been little consensus in the modeling community on the magnitude of realistic ocean carbon and heat content variability, particularly in the Southern Ocean. We assess the differences between global oceanic heat and carbon content variability in GFDL ESM2Mc using a 500-year, pre-industrial control simulation. The global carbon and heat content are directly out of phase with each other; however, in the Southern Ocean the heat and carbon content are in phase. The global heat mutli-decadal variability is primarily explained by variability in the tropics and mid-latitudes, while the variability in global carbon content is primarily explained by Southern Ocean variability. In order to test the robustness of this relationship, we use three additional pre-industrial control simulations using different mesoscale mixing parameterizations. Three pre-industrial control simulations are conducted with the along-isopycnal diffusion coefficient (Aredi) set to constant values of 400, 800 (control) and 2400 m2 s-1. These values for Aredi are within the range of parameter settings commonly used in modeling groups. Finally, one pre-industrial control simulation is conducted where the minimum in the Gent-McWilliams parameterization closure scheme (AGM) increased to 600 m2 s-1. We find that the different simulations have very different multi-decadal variability, especially in the Weddell Sea where the characteristics of deep convection are drastically changed. While the temporal frequency and amplitude global heat and carbon content changes significantly, the overall spatial pattern of variability remains unchanged between the simulations.

  7. Rose bush leaf and internode expansion dynamics: analysis and development of a model capturing interplant variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabine eDemotes-Mainard

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Bush rose architecture, among other factors, such as plant health, determines plant visual quality. The commercial product is the individual plant and interplant variability may be high within a crop. Thus, both mean plant architecture and interplant variability should be studied. Expansion is an important feature of architecture, but it has been little studied at the level of individual organs in bush roses. We investigated the expansion kinetics of primary shoot organs, to develop a model reproducing the organ expansion of real crops from non destructive input variables. We took interplant variability in expansion kinetics and the model’s ability to simulate this variability into account. Changes in leaflet and internode dimensions over thermal time were recorded for primary shoot expansion, on 83 plants from three crops grown in different climatic conditions and densities. An empirical model was developed, to reproduce organ expansion kinetics for individual plants of a real crop of bush rose primary shoots. Leaflet or internode length was simulated as a logistic function of thermal time. The model was evaluated by cross-validation. We found that differences in leaflet or internode expansion kinetics between phytomer positions and between plants at a given phytomer position were due mostly to large differences in time of organ expansion and expansion rate, rather than differences in expansion duration. Thus, in the model, the parameters linked to expansion duration were predicted by values common to all plants, whereas variability in final size and organ expansion time was captured by input data. The model accurately simulated leaflet and internode expansion for individual plants (RMSEP = 7.3% and 10.2% of final length, respectively. Thus, this study defines the measurements required to simulate expansion and provides the first model simulating organ expansion in rosebush to capture interplant variability.

  8. Cellular Automata Simulation for Wealth Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Shih-Ching

    2009-08-01

    Wealth distribution of a country is a complicate system. A model, which is based on the Epstein & Axtell's "Sugars cape" model, is presented in Netlogo. The model considers the income, age, working opportunity and salary as control variables. There are still other variables should be considered while an artificial society is established. In this study, a more complicate cellular automata model for wealth distribution model is proposed. The effects of social welfare, tax, economical investment and inheritance are considered and simulated. According to the cellular automata simulation for wealth distribution, we will have a deep insight of financial policy of the government.

  9. Conducting Simulation Studies in Psychometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinberg, Richard A.; Rubright, Jonathan D.

    2016-01-01

    Simulation studies are fundamental to psychometric discourse and play a crucial role in operational and academic research. Yet, resources for psychometricians interested in conducting simulations are scarce. This Instructional Topics in Educational Measurement Series (ITEMS) module is meant to address this deficiency by providing a comprehensive…

  10. Design and Calibration of a Transformer Controlled Variable ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A new approach for the design and construction of a variable rainfall simulator using an auto transformer which is aimed at soil erosion research was explored. The method involves using a water pump, a variable voltage regulator and a set of nozzles for the simulation of rainfall. It was found that the variation of rainfall ...

  11. Two-way coupling of magnetohydrodynamic simulations with embedded particle-in-cell simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makwana, K. D.; Keppens, R.; Lapenta, G.

    2017-12-01

    We describe a method for coupling an embedded domain in a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation with a particle-in-cell (PIC) method. In this two-way coupling we follow the work of Daldorff et al. (2014) [19] in which the PIC domain receives its initial and boundary conditions from MHD variables (MHD to PIC coupling) while the MHD simulation is updated based on the PIC variables (PIC to MHD coupling). This method can be useful for simulating large plasma systems, where kinetic effects captured by particle-in-cell simulations are localized but affect global dynamics. We describe the numerical implementation of this coupling, its time-stepping algorithm, and its parallelization strategy, emphasizing the novel aspects of it. We test the stability and energy/momentum conservation of this method by simulating a steady-state plasma. We test the dynamics of this coupling by propagating plasma waves through the embedded PIC domain. Coupling with MHD shows satisfactory results for the fast magnetosonic wave, but significant distortion for the circularly polarized Alfvén wave. Coupling with Hall-MHD shows excellent coupling for the whistler wave. We also apply this methodology to simulate a Geospace Environmental Modeling (GEM) challenge type of reconnection with the diffusion region simulated by PIC coupled to larger scales with MHD and Hall-MHD. In both these cases we see the expected signatures of kinetic reconnection in the PIC domain, implying that this method can be used for reconnection studies.

  12. A satellite simulator for TRMM PR applied to climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spangehl, T.; Schroeder, M.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Hollmann, R.; Riley Dellaripa, E. M.; Schumacher, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate model simulations have to be compared against observation based datasets in order to assess their skill in representing precipitation characteristics. Here we use a satellite simulator for TRMM PR in order to evaluate simulations performed with MPI-ESM (Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany) performed within the MiKlip project (https://www.fona-miklip.de/, funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany). While classical evaluation methods focus on geophysical parameters such as precipitation amounts, the application of the satellite simulator enables an evaluation in the instrument's parameter space thereby reducing uncertainties on the reference side. The CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) provides a framework for the application of satellite simulators to climate model simulations. The approach requires the introduction of sub-grid cloud and precipitation variability. Radar reflectivities are obtained by applying Mie theory, with the microphysical assumptions being chosen to match the atmosphere component of MPI-ESM (ECHAM6). The results are found to be sensitive to the methods used to distribute the convective precipitation over the sub-grid boxes. Simple parameterization methods are used to introduce sub-grid variability of convective clouds and precipitation. In order to constrain uncertainties a comprehensive comparison with sub-grid scale convective precipitation variability which is deduced from TRMM PR observations is carried out.

  13. Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration

    OpenAIRE

    N. S. Lovenduski; M. C. Long; K. Lindsay

    2015-01-01

    We investigate variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration ([CO32−]) on the basis of a long control simulation with a fully-coupled Earth System Model. The simulation is run with a prescribed, pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration for 1000 years, permitting investigation of natural [CO32−] variability on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. We find high interannual variability in surface [CO32−] in the tropical...

  14. Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration

    OpenAIRE

    Lovenduski, N. S.; Long, M. C.; Lindsay, K.

    2015-01-01

    We investigate variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration ([CO32−]) on the basis of a~long control simulation with an Earth System Model. The simulation is run with a prescribed, pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration for 1000 years, permitting investigation of natural [CO32−] variability on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. We find high interannual variability in surface [CO32−] in the tropical Pacific and ...

  15. Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

    2012-01-01

    Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the

  16. Investigation of load reduction for a variable speed, variable pitch, and variable coning wind turbine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pierce, K. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    1997-12-31

    A two bladed, variable speed and variable pitch wind turbine was modeled using ADAMS{reg_sign} to evaluate load reduction abilities of a variable coning configuration as compared to a teetered rotor, and also to evaluate control methods. The basic dynamic behavior of the variable coning turbine was investigated and compared to the teetered rotor under constant wind conditions as well as turbulent wind conditions. Results indicate the variable coning rotor has larger flap oscillation amplitudes and much lower root flap bending moments than the teetered rotor. Three methods of control were evaluated for turbulent wind simulations. These were a standard IPD control method, a generalized predictive control method, and a bias estimate control method. Each control method was evaluated for both the variable coning configuration and the teetered configuration. The ability of the different control methods to maintain the rotor speed near the desired set point is evaluated from the RMS error of rotor speed. The activity of the control system is evaluated from cycles per second of the blade pitch angle. All three of the methods were found to produce similar results for the variable coning rotor and the teetered rotor, as well as similar results to each other.

  17. Location tests for biomarker studies: a comparison using simulations for the two-sample case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheinhardt, M O; Ziegler, A

    2013-01-01

    Gene, protein, or metabolite expression levels are often non-normally distributed, heavy tailed and contain outliers. Standard statistical approaches may fail as location tests in this situation. In three Monte-Carlo simulation studies, we aimed at comparing the type I error levels and empirical power of standard location tests and three adaptive tests [O'Gorman, Can J Stat 1997; 25: 269 -279; Keselman et al., Brit J Math Stat Psychol 2007; 60: 267- 293; Szymczak et al., Stat Med 2013; 32: 524 - 537] for a wide range of distributions. We simulated two-sample scenarios using the g-and-k-distribution family to systematically vary tail length and skewness with identical and varying variability between groups. All tests kept the type I error level when groups did not vary in their variability. The standard non-parametric U-test performed well in all simulated scenarios. It was outperformed by the two non-parametric adaptive methods in case of heavy tails or large skewness. Most tests did not keep the type I error level for skewed data in the case of heterogeneous variances. The standard U-test was a powerful and robust location test for most of the simulated scenarios except for very heavy tailed or heavy skewed data, and it is thus to be recommended except for these cases. The non-parametric adaptive tests were powerful for both normal and non-normal distributions under sample variance homogeneity. But when sample variances differed, they did not keep the type I error level. The parametric adaptive test lacks power for skewed and heavy tailed distributions.

  18. A simulation study of the vortex structure in the low-latitude boundary layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, C.Q.; Lee, L.C.; La Belle-Hamer, A.L.

    1990-01-01

    Satellite observations indicate that the plasma density and the flow velocity are highly variable in the low-latitude boundary layer. The thickness of the boundary layer is also highly variable and appears to increase with increasing longitudinal distance from the subsolar point. In this paper plasma dynamics in the low-latitude boundary layer region is studied on the basis of a two-dimensional incompressible bydrodynamic numerical model. In the simulation, plasma is driven into the boundary layer region by imposing a diffusion flux along the magnetopause. The vortex motions associated with the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability are observed in the simulation. The resulting vortex structures in the plasma density and the flow velocity may coalesce as they are convected tailward, causing them to grow in size. The boundary layer thickness increases with increasing longitudinal distance from the subsolar point in accord with satellite observations. The plasma density and the flow velocity are positively correlated. A mixing region is formed where magnetosheath plasma and magnetospheric plasma mix due to the vortex motions. In the later stage of development, a density plateau is formed in the central part of the boundary layer. Many features of the satellite observations of the boundary layer can be explained using the numerical model. The simulation results also predict that the vortices generated in the postnoon (prenoon) boundary layer lead to the presence of localized upward (downward) field-aligned currents in both the northern and the southern polar ionospheres. The upward field-aligned currents in turn may lead to the formation of dayside auroral patches observed in the postnoon region

  19. Parameter uncertainty in simulations of extreme precipitation and attribution studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, B.; Collins, W. D.; O'Brien, T. A.; Risser, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    The attribution of extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, to anthropogenic influence involves the analysis of their probability in simulations of climate. The climate models used however, such as the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), employ approximate physics that gives rise to "parameter uncertainty"—uncertainty about the most accurate or optimal values of numerical parameters within the model. In particular, approximate parameterisations for convective processes are well known to be influential in the simulation of precipitation extremes. Towards examining the impact of this source of uncertainty on attribution studies, we investigate the importance of components—through their associated tuning parameters—of parameterisations relating to deep and shallow convection, and cloud and aerosol microphysics in CAM. We hypothesise that as numerical resolution is increased the change in proportion of variance induced by perturbed parameters associated with the respective components is consistent with the decreasing applicability of the underlying hydrostatic assumptions. For example, that the relative influence of deep convection should diminish as resolution approaches that where convection can be resolved numerically ( 10 km). We quantify the relationship between the relative proportion of variance induced and numerical resolution by conducting computer experiments that examine precipitation extremes over the contiguous U.S. In order to mitigate the enormous computational burden of running ensembles of long climate simulations, we use variable-resolution CAM and employ both extreme value theory and surrogate modelling techniques ("emulators"). We discuss the implications of the relationship between parameterised convective processes and resolution both in the context of attribution studies and progression towards models that fully resolve convection.

  20. A study of variable thrust, variable specific impulse trajectories for solar system exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakai, Tadashi

    A study has been performed to determine the advantages and disadvantages of variable thrust and variable Isp (specific impulse) trajectories for solar system exploration. There have been several numerical research efforts for variable thrust, variable Isp, power-limited trajectory optimization problems. All of these results conclude that variable thrust, variable Isp (variable specific impulse, or VSI) engines are superior to constant thrust, constant Isp (constant specific impulse; or CSI) engines. However, most of these research efforts assume a mission from Earth to Mars, and some of them further assume that these planets are circular and coplanar. Hence they still lack the generality. This research has been conducted to answer the following questions: (1) Is a VSI engine always better than a CSI engine or a high thrust engine for any mission to any planet with any time of flight considering lower propellant mass as the sole criterion? (2) If a planetary swing-by is used for a VSI trajectory, is the fuel savings of a VSI swing-by trajectory better than that of a CSI swing-by or high thrust swing-by trajectory? To support this research, an unique, new computer-based interplanetary trajectory calculation program has been created. This program utilizes a calculus of variations algorithm to perform overall optimization of thrust, Isp, and thrust vector direction along a trajectory that minimizes fuel consumption for interplanetary travel. It is assumed that the propulsion system is power-limited, and thus the compromise between thrust and Isp is a variable to be optimized along the flight path. This program is capable of optimizing not only variable thrust trajectories but also constant thrust trajectories in 3-D space using a planetary ephemeris database. It is also capable of conducting planetary swing-bys. Using this program, various Earth-originating trajectories have been investigated and the optimized results have been compared to traditional CSI and high

  1. Simulation studies on the effect of positioning tolerances on optical coupling efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamidighantam, Ramana V.; Yeo, Yongkee; Sudharsanam, Krishnamachari; Lee, Sik Pong; Iyer, Mahadevan K.

    2002-08-01

    The development of Optoelectronic components for communications is converging towards access networks where device cost makes a significant impact on the market acceptance. Thus, the device design engineer needs to input assembly, fabrication and process constraints into the design at an early stage. The present study is part of a Project on Packaging of Optical Components that IME, Singapore has initiated as part of an ongoing Electronics Packaging Research Consortium with industry partnership. In the present study, the coupling of optical radiation from a laser diode to optical fiber is simulated for a fiber optic transmitter component development project. Different optical configurations based on direct coupling, spherical ball lenses, integral lensed fibers and thermally expanded fibers are created within the commercially available transmitter package space. The effect of optical element variables on the placement tolerance is analyzed and will be reported. The effect of alignment tolerances on the optical coupling is analyzed. Simulation results are presented recommending realizable alignment and placement tolerances to develop a low cost short range link distance transmitter.

  2. Development of the Transport Class Model (TCM) Aircraft Simulation From a Sub-Scale Generic Transport Model (GTM) Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hueschen, Richard M.

    2011-01-01

    A six degree-of-freedom, flat-earth dynamics, non-linear, and non-proprietary aircraft simulation was developed that is representative of a generic mid-sized twin-jet transport aircraft. The simulation was developed from a non-proprietary, publicly available, subscale twin-jet transport aircraft simulation using scaling relationships and a modified aerodynamic database. The simulation has an extended aerodynamics database with aero data outside the normal transport-operating envelope (large angle-of-attack and sideslip values). The simulation has representative transport aircraft surface actuator models with variable rate-limits and generally fixed position limits. The simulation contains a generic 40,000 lb sea level thrust engine model. The engine model is a first order dynamic model with a variable time constant that changes according to simulation conditions. The simulation provides a means for interfacing a flight control system to use the simulation sensor variables and to command the surface actuators and throttle position of the engine model.

  3. r2VIM: A new variable selection method for random forests in genome-wide association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymczak, Silke; Holzinger, Emily; Dasgupta, Abhijit; Malley, James D; Molloy, Anne M; Mills, James L; Brody, Lawrence C; Stambolian, Dwight; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E

    2016-01-01

    Machine learning methods and in particular random forests (RFs) are a promising alternative to standard single SNP analyses in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). RFs provide variable importance measures (VIMs) to rank SNPs according to their predictive power. However, in contrast to the established genome-wide significance threshold, no clear criteria exist to determine how many SNPs should be selected for downstream analyses. We propose a new variable selection approach, recurrent relative variable importance measure (r2VIM). Importance values are calculated relative to an observed minimal importance score for several runs of RF and only SNPs with large relative VIMs in all of the runs are selected as important. Evaluations on simulated GWAS data show that the new method controls the number of false-positives under the null hypothesis. Under a simple alternative hypothesis with several independent main effects it is only slightly less powerful than logistic regression. In an experimental GWAS data set, the same strong signal is identified while the approach selects none of the SNPs in an underpowered GWAS. The novel variable selection method r2VIM is a promising extension to standard RF for objectively selecting relevant SNPs in GWAS while controlling the number of false-positive results.

  4. A 3D kinetic Monte Carlo simulation study of resistive switching processes in Ni/HfO2/Si-n+-based RRAMs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldana, S; García-Fernández, P; Jiménez-Molinos, F; Gómez-Campos, F; Roldán, J B; Rodríguez-Fernández, Alberto; Romero-Zaliz, R; González, M B; Campabadal, F

    2017-01-01

    A new RRAM simulation tool based on a 3D kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm has been implemented. The redox reactions and migration of cations are developed taking into consideration the temperature and electric potential 3D distributions within the device dielectric at each simulation time step. The filamentary conduction has been described by obtaining the percolation paths formed by metallic atoms. Ni/HfO 2 /Si-n + unipolar devices have been fabricated and measured. The different experimental characteristics of the devices under study have been reproduced with accuracy by means of simulations. The main physical variables can be extracted at any simulation time to clarify the physics behind resistive switching; in particular, the final conductive filament shape can be studied in detail. (paper)

  5. A Study of the Kepler K2 Variable EPIC 211957146 Exhibiting a Variable O’ Connell Effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sriram, K.; Malu, S.; Rao, P. Vivekananda [Department of Astronomy, Osmania University, Hyderabad 500007 (India); Choi, C. S., E-mail: astrosriram@yahoo.co.in [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-05-01

    We present the multi-band photometric and spectroscopic study of an over-contact binary system, EPIC 211957146. The light curves exhibit a variable O’ Connell effect, confirmed from our observational data and the Kepler K2 data. The best photometric solution incorporating a dark spot over the primary component unveils that the system has a low-mass ratio ( q  ∼ 0.17) and a high inclination ( i  ∼ 85°). To confirm the solution and constrain the uncertainty, Monte-Carlo simulations are performed and the results are reported. Based on the O–C diagram analysis, we see that the variable shows a period increase at the rate of dP / dt  ∼ 1.06 × 10{sup −6} days yr{sup −1}, which is higher than the theoretically predicted value. Presence of a third body having a period of ∼16.23 years is evident from the O–C diagram. No filled-in effect is observed in the H α line, while the effect is vividly present in the Na line. From the Kepler K2 data, we found that the primary and secondary minima exhibit an anti-correlated O–C variation followed by an erratic behavior. This is possibly caused by the longitudinal motion of the spot, and hence, we set a lower limit of ∼40 days for the spot modulation. We also observe a possibly associated photometric difference in the primary depth by comparing our light curves with Kepler K2 normalized light curves. This system has a low-mass ratio and a high fill-out factor, and, theoretically, such a physical configuration would lead to a merger.

  6. An improved and explicit surrogate variable analysis procedure by coefficient adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seunggeun; Sun, Wei; Wright, Fred A; Zou, Fei

    2017-06-01

    Unobserved environmental, demographic, and technical factors can negatively affect the estimation and testing of the effects of primary variables. Surrogate variable analysis, proposed to tackle this problem, has been widely used in genomic studies. To estimate hidden factors that are correlated with the primary variables, surrogate variable analysis performs principal component analysis either on a subset of features or on all features, but weighting each differently. However, existing approaches may fail to identify hidden factors that are strongly correlated with the primary variables, and the extra step of feature selection and weight calculation makes the theoretical investigation of surrogate variable analysis challenging. In this paper, we propose an improved surrogate variable analysis using all measured features that has a natural connection with restricted least squares, which allows us to study its theoretical properties. Simulation studies and real data analysis show that the method is competitive to state-of-the-art methods.

  7. Climate variability in a coupled GCM. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latif, M.; Sterl, A.; Assenbaum, M.; Junge, M.M.; Maier-Reimer, E.

    1993-01-01

    The seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation are investigated and the Indian Summer Monsoon is simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model in a 26 year integration. Although the model exhibits significant climate drift, it simulates realistically the seasonal changes in the tropical Indian Ocean and the onset and evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The amplitudes of the seasonal changes, however, are somewhat underestimated. The coupled GCM also simulates considerable interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean circulation which is partly related to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the associated changes in the Walker Circulation. Changes in the surface wind stress appear to be crucial in forcing interannual variations in the Indian Ocean SST. As in the Pacific Ocean, the net surface heat flux acts as a negative feedback on the SST anomalies. The interannual variability in Monsoon rainfall is simulated by the coupled GCM only about half as strongly as observed. (orig.)

  8. Computer simulation of the L/sub III/-edge densitometer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langner, D.

    1987-11-01

    Since the L/sub III/-edge densitometer was first fielded in 1977, it has displayed a 1 to 1.5% nonlinear deviation from its theoretical linear calibration response. In an effort to explain this nonlinear deviation, this study used a simple, closed-form computer simulation to examine the effects of several variables on the densitometer's measurement of uranium and plutonium in solution. The results of this simulation suggest that the variables that contribute to this nonlinearity include the effects of small-angle scattering and the detection system resolution function. The simulation also examined the effects of matrix contaminants, the shape of the incoming beam, the uranium-to-plutonium ratio for mixed solutions, and the data-reduction technique. All of these variables were found to have some effect on the assay results, although these were generally small. The calculations demonstrate that using a new edge-extrapolation data-reduction technique reduces the instrument's sensitivity to many of these variables

  9. DATA COLLECTION METHOD FOR PEDESTRIAN MOVEMENT VARIABLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajime Inamura

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The need of tools for design and evaluation of pedestrian areas, subways stations, entrance hall, shopping mall, escape routes, stadium etc lead to the necessity of a pedestrian model. One approach pedestrian model is Microscopic Pedestrian Simulation Model. To be able to develop and calibrate a microscopic pedestrian simulation model, a number of variables need to be considered. As the first step of model development, some data was collected using video and the coordinate of the head path through image processing were also taken. Several numbers of variables can be gathered to describe the behavior of pedestrian from a different point of view. This paper describes how to obtain variables from video taking and simple image processing that can represent the movement of pedestrians and its variables

  10. Non-steady peristaltic propulsion with exponential variable viscosity: a study of transport through the digestive system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Dharmendra; Pandey, S K; Siddiqui, Abdul; Bég, O Anwar

    2014-01-01

    A theoretical study is presented for transient peristaltic flow of an incompressible fluid with variable viscosity in a finite length cylindrical tube as a simulation of transport in physiological vessels and biomimetic peristaltic pumps. The current axisymmetric analysis is qualitatively similar to two-dimensional analysis but exhibits quantitative variations. The current analysis is motivated towards further elucidating the physiological migration of gastric suspensions (food bolus) in the human digestive system. It also applies to variable viscosity industrial fluid (waste) peristaltic pumping systems. First, an axisymmetric model is analysed in the limit of large wavelength ([Formula: see text]) and low Reynolds number ([Formula: see text]) for axial velocity, radial velocity, pressure, hydromechanical efficiency and stream function in terms of radial vibration of the wall ([Formula: see text]), amplitude of the wave ([Formula: see text]), averaged flow rate ([Formula: see text]) and variable viscosity ([Formula: see text]). Subsequently, the peristaltic flow of a fluid with an exponential viscosity model is examined, which is based on the analytical solutions for pressure, wall shear stress, hydromechanical efficiency and streamline patterns in the finite length tube. The results are found to correlate well with earlier studies using a constant viscosity formulation. This study reveals some important features in the flow characteristics including the observation that pressure as well as both number and size of lower trapped bolus increases. Furthermore, the study indicates that hydromechanical efficiency reduces with increasing magnitude of viscosity parameter.

  11. Co-Simulation of an Inverter Fed Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiss Gergely Máté

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Co-simulation is a method which makes it possible to study the electric machine and its drive at once, as one system. By taking into account the actual inverter voltage waveforms in a finite element model instead of using only the fundamental, we are able to study the electrical machine's behavior in more realistic scenario. The recent increase in the use of variable speed drives justifies the research on such simulation techniques. In this paper we present the co-simulation of an inverter fed permanent magnet synchronous machine. The modelling method employs an analytical variable speed drive model and a finite element electrical machine model. By linking the analytical variable speed drive model together with a finite element model the complex simulation model enables the investigation of the electrical machine during actual operation. The methods are coupled via the results. This means that output of the finite element model serves as an input to the analytical model, and the output of the analytical model provides the input of the finite element model for a different simulation, thus enabling the finite element simulation of an inverter fed machine. The resulting speed and torque characteristics from the analytical model and the finite element model show a good agreement. The experiences with the co-simulation technique encourage further research and effort to improve the method.

  12. Inference for binomial probability based on dependent Bernoulli random variables with applications to meta‐analysis and group level studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakbergenuly, Ilyas; Morgenthaler, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    We study bias arising as a result of nonlinear transformations of random variables in random or mixed effects models and its effect on inference in group‐level studies or in meta‐analysis. The findings are illustrated on the example of overdispersed binomial distributions, where we demonstrate considerable biases arising from standard log‐odds and arcsine transformations of the estimated probability p^, both for single‐group studies and in combining results from several groups or studies in meta‐analysis. Our simulations confirm that these biases are linear in ρ, for small values of ρ, the intracluster correlation coefficient. These biases do not depend on the sample sizes or the number of studies K in a meta‐analysis and result in abysmal coverage of the combined effect for large K. We also propose bias‐correction for the arcsine transformation. Our simulations demonstrate that this bias‐correction works well for small values of the intraclass correlation. The methods are applied to two examples of meta‐analyses of prevalence. PMID:27192062

  13. Numerical simulation of air- and water-flow experiments in a block of variably saturated, fractured tuff from Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwicklis, E.M.; Healy, R.W.; Thamir, F.; Hampson, D.

    1998-01-01

    Numerical models of water movement through variably saturated, fractured tuff have undergone little testing against experimental data collected from relatively well-controlled and characterized experiments. This report used the results of a multistage experiment on a block of variably saturated, fractured, welded tuff and associated core samples to investigate if those results could be explained using models and concepts currently used to simulate water movement in variably saturated, fractured tuff at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the potential location of a high-level nuclear-waste repository. Aspects of the experiment were modeled with varying degrees of success. Imbibition experiments performed on cores of various lengths and diameters were adequately described by models using independently measured permeabilities and moisture-characteristic curves, provided that permeability reductions resulting from the presence of entrapped air were considered. Entrapped gas limited maximum water saturations during imbibition to approximately 0.70 to 0,80 of the fillable porosity values determined by vacuum saturation. A numerical simulator developed for application to fluid flow problems in fracture networks was used to analyze the results of air-injection tests conducted within the tuff block through 1.25-cm-diameter boreholes. These analyses produced estimates of transmissivity for selected fractures within the block. Transmissivities of other fractures were assigned on the basis of visual similarity to one of the tested fractures. The calibrated model explained 53% of the observed pressure variance at the monitoring boreholes (with the results for six outliers omitted) and 97% of the overall pressure variance (including monitoring and injection boreholes) in the subset of air-injection tests examined

  14. Psychometric analysis of simulated psychopathology during sick leave

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Jáuregui Lobera

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulation from a categorical or diagnostic perspective, has turned into a more dimensional point of view, so it is possible to establish different “levels” of simulation. In order to analyse, from a psychometric perspective, the possible prediction of simulated behaviour based on common measures of general psychopathology, the objective of the current study was to analyse possible predictors of the Structured Symptomatic Simulation Inventory (SIMS scores considering as dependent variables the total SIMS score, the SIMS subscales scores, and the cut-off points usually suggested to discriminate between “no suspected simulation”/“suspected simulation”, which usually are 14 and 16. In terms of possible predictors, a set of variables were established: a categorical (sex, type of treatment - psychopharmacological, psychotherapeutic, combined-, type of work activity, being self-employed or not, presence-absence of a history of psychopathology (both familial and personal, presence or not of associated physical pathology, diagnosis -according to ICD-10- and the final proposal -return to work, sick leave extended, proposal of permanent work incapacity-; and b continuous (perceived stress -general and current, self-esteem, results of a screening questionnaire for personality disorders and scores on a symptoms questionnaire. In addition, a descriptive study of all variables was carried out and possible differences of genre were analysed.

  15. Study of Stability of Rotational Motion of Spacecraft with Canonical Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Reis Silva

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to analyze the stability of the rotational motion of artificial satellites in circular orbit with the influence of gravity gradient torque, using the Andoyer variables. The used method in this paper to analyze stability is the Kovalev-Savchenko theorem. This method requires the reduction of the Hamiltonian in its normal form up to fourth order by means of canonical transformations around equilibrium points. The coefficients of the normal Hamiltonian are indispensable in the study of nonlinear stability of its equilibrium points according to the three established conditions in the theorem. Some physical and orbital data of real satellites were used in the numerical simulations. In comparison with previous work, the results show a greater number of equilibrium points and an optimization in the algorithm to determine the normal form and stability analysis. The results of this paper can directly contribute in maintaining the attitude of artificial satellites.

  16. Model aerodynamic test results for two variable cycle engine coannular exhaust systems at simulated takeoff and cruise conditions. [Lewis 8 by 6-foot supersonic wind tunnel tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, D. P.

    1980-01-01

    Wind tunnel tests were conducted to evaluate the aerodynamic performance of a coannular exhaust nozzle for a proposed variable stream control supersonic propulsion system. Tests were conducted with two simulated configurations differing primarily in the fan duct flowpaths: a short flap mechanism for fan stream control with an isentropic contoured flow splitter, and an iris fan nozzle with a conical flow splitter. Both designs feature a translating primary plug and an auxiliary inlet ejector. Tests were conducted at takeoff and simulated cruise conditions. Data were acquired at Mach numbers of 0, 0.36, 0.9, and 2.0 for a wide range of nozzle operating conditions. At simulated supersonic cruise, both configurations demonstrated good performance, comparable to levels assumed in earlier advanced supersonic propulsion studies. However, at subsonic cruise, both configurations exhibited performance that was 6 to 7.5 percent less than the study assumptions. At take off conditions, the iris configuration performance approached the assumed levels, while the short flap design was 4 to 6 percent less.

  17. Evaluation of different inertial control methods for variable-speed wind turbines simulated by fatigue, aerodynamic, structures and turbulence (FAST)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiao; Gao, Wenzhong; Scholbrock, Andrew; Muljadi, Eduard; Gevorgian, Vahan; Wang, Jianhui; Yan, Weihang; Zhang, Huaguang

    2017-10-18

    To mitigate the degraded power system inertia and undesirable primary frequency response caused by large-scale wind power integration, the frequency support capabilities of variable-speed wind turbines is studied in this work. This is made possible by controlled inertial response, which is demonstrated on a research turbine - controls advanced research turbine, 3-bladed (CART3). Two distinct inertial control (IC) methods are analysed in terms of their impacts on the grids and the response of the turbine itself. The released kinetic energy in the IC methods are determined by the frequency measurement or shaped active power reference in the turbine speed-power plane. The wind turbine model is based on the high-fidelity turbine simulator fatigue, aerodynamic, structures and turbulence, which constitutes the aggregated wind power plant model with the simplified power converter model. The IC methods are implemented over the baseline CART3 controller, evaluated in the modified 9-bus and 14-bus testing power grids considering different wind speeds and different wind power penetration levels. The simulation results provide various insights on designing such kinds of ICs. The authors calculate the short-term dynamic equivalent loads and give a discussion about the turbine structural loadings related to the inertial response.

  18. Global Simulation of Bioenergy Crop Productivity: Analytical framework and Case Study for Switchgrass

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nair, S. Surendran [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Nichols, Jeff A. {Cyber Sciences} [ORNL; Post, Wilfred M [ORNL; Wang, Dali [ORNL; Wullschleger, Stan D [ORNL; Kline, Keith L [ORNL; Wei, Yaxing [ORNL; Singh, Nagendra [ORNL; Kang, Shujiang [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Contemporary global assessments of the deployment potential and sustainability aspects of biofuel crops lack quantitative details. This paper describes an analytical framework capable of meeting the challenges associated with global scale agro-ecosystem modeling. We designed a modeling platform for bioenergy crops, consisting of five major components: (i) standardized global natural resources and management data sets, (ii) global simulation unit and management scenarios, (iii) model calibration and validation, (iv) high-performance computing (HPC) modeling, and (v) simulation output processing and analysis. A case study with the HPC- Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model (HPC-EPIC) to simulate a perennial bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and global biomass feedstock analysis on grassland demonstrates the application of this platform. The results illustrate biomass feedstock variability of switchgrass and provide insights on how the modeling platform can be expanded to better assess sustainable production criteria and other biomass crops. Feedstock potentials on global grasslands and within different countries are also shown. Future efforts involve developing databases of productivity, implementing global simulations for other bioenergy crops (e.g. miscanthus, energycane and agave), and assessing environmental impacts under various management regimes. We anticipated this platform will provide an exemplary tool and assessment data for international communities to conduct global analysis of biofuel biomass feedstocks and sustainability.

  19. Adaptive enhanced sampling with a path-variable for the simulation of protein folding and aggregation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, Emanuel K.

    2017-12-01

    In this article, we present a novel adaptive enhanced sampling molecular dynamics (MD) method for the accelerated simulation of protein folding and aggregation. We introduce a path-variable L based on the un-biased momenta p and displacements dq for the definition of the bias s applied to the system and derive 3 algorithms: general adaptive bias MD, adaptive path-sampling, and a hybrid method which combines the first 2 methodologies. Through the analysis of the correlations between the bias and the un-biased gradient in the system, we find that the hybrid methodology leads to an improved force correlation and acceleration in the sampling of the phase space. We apply our method on SPC/E water, where we find a conservation of the average water structure. We then use our method to sample dialanine and the folding of TrpCage, where we find a good agreement with simulation data reported in the literature. Finally, we apply our methodologies on the initial stages of aggregation of a hexamer of Alzheimer's amyloid β fragment 25-35 (Aβ 25-35) and find that transitions within the hexameric aggregate are dominated by entropic barriers, while we speculate that especially the conformation entropy plays a major role in the formation of the fibril as a rate limiting factor.

  20. Study of event shape variables at LEP

    CERN Document Server

    Sarkar, Subir

    1997-01-01

    We present the LEP results on the study of the hadronic event shape variables. Excellent detector performance and improved theoretical calculations make it possible to study quantum chromodynamics with small experimental and theoretical uncertainties. QCD predictions describe data well at energies above the Z peak.

  1. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1990-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  2. Entropy as a collective variable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrinello, Michele

    Sampling complex free energy surfaces that exhibit long lived metastable states separated by kinetic bottlenecks is one of the most pressing issues in the atomistic simulations of matter. Not surprisingly many solutions to this problem have been suggested. Many of them are based on the identification of appropriate collective variables that span the manifold of the slow varying modes of the system. While much effort has been put in devising and even constructing on the fly appropriate collective variables there is still a cogent need of introducing simple, generic, physically transparent, and yet effective collective variables. Motivated by the physical observation that in many case transitions between one metastable state and another result from a trade off between enthalpy and entropy we introduce appropriate collective variables that are able to represent in a simple way these two physical properties. We use these variables in the context of the recently introduced variationally enhanced sampling and apply it them with success to the simulation of crystallization from the liquid and to conformational transitions in protein. Department of Chemistry and Applied Biosciences, ETH Zurich, and Facolta' di Informatica, Istituto di Scienze Computazionali, Universita' della Svizzera Italiana, Via G. Buffi 13, 6900 Lugano, Switzerland.

  3. Comparative study on performances of a continuously variable transmission used in two different powertrain architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibiceanu, A. R.; Ivan, F.; Nicolae, V.; Iorga, A.; Cioroianu, C.

    2017-08-01

    Given the importance of reducing carbon emissions from road transport, price and security of oil supply, hybrid electric vehicle can provide a viable alternative solution to conventional vehicles, equipped with thermal engines, which use fossil fuels. Based on the growing trends of new vehicles sales, which include hybrid and electric vehicles closely associated with their use in terms of harmful emissions, strict regulations are established. In this paper were created models of thermal and hybrid electric powertrains groups, using computer simulation program AVL Cruise, making a comparative study using petroleum fuels for continuously variable transmission. The results obtained highlights both fuel consumption as well as pollutant emissions.

  4. Analysis of suspension with variable stiffness and variable damping force for automotive applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lalitkumar Maikulal Jugulkar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Passive shock absorbers are designed for standard load condition. These give better vibration isolation performance only for the standard load condition. However, if the sprung mass is lesser than the standard mass, comfort and road holding ability is affected. It is demonstrated that sprung mass acceleration increases by 50%, when the vehicle mass varies by 100 kg. In order to obtain consistent damping performance from the shock absorber, it is essential to vary its stiffness and damping properties. In this article, a variable stiffness system is presented, which comprises of two helical springs and a variable fluid damper. Fluid damper intensity is changed in four discrete levels to achieve variable stiffness of the prototype. Numerical simulations have been performed with MATLAB Simscape and Simulink which have been with experimentation on a prototype. Furthermore, the numerical model of the prototype is used in design of real size shock absorber with variable stiffness and damping. Numerical simulation results on the real size model indicate that the peak acceleration will improve by 15% in comparison to the conventional passive solution, without significant deterioration of road holding ability. Arrangement of sensors and actuators for incorporating the system in a vehicle suspension has also been discussed.

  5. Numerical simulation of water flow and Nitrate transport through variably saturated porous media in laboratory condition using HYDRUS 2D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahangeer, F.; Gupta, P. K.; Yadav, B. K.

    2017-12-01

    Due to the reducing availability of water resources and the growing competition for water between residential, industrial, and agricultural users, increasing irrigation efficiency, by several methods like drip irrigation, is a demanding concern for agricultural experts. The understanding of the water and contaminants flow through the subsurface is needed for the sustainable irrigation water management, pollution assessment, polluted site remediation and groundwater recharge. In this study, the Windows-based computer software package HYDRUS-2D, which numerically simulates water and solute movement in two-dimensional, variably-saturated porous media, was used to evaluate the distribution of water and Nitrate in the sand tank. The laboratory and simulation experiments were conducted to evaluate the role of drainage, recharge flux, and infiltration on subsurface flow condition and subsequently, on nitrate movement in the subsurface. The water flow in the unsaturated zone model by Richards' equation, which was highly nonlinear and its parameters were largely dependent on the moisture content and pressure head of the partially saturated zone. Following different cases to be considered to evaluate- a) applying drainage and recharge flux to study domains, b) transient infiltration in a vertical soil column and c) subsequently, nitrate transport in 2D sand tank setup. A single porosity model was used for the simulation of water and nitrate flow in the study domain. The results indicate the transient water table position decreases as the time increase significantly by applying drainage flux at the bottom. Similarly, the water table positions in study domains increasing in the domain by applying recharge flux. Likewise, the water flow profile shows the decreasing water table elevation with increasing water content in the vertical domain. Moreover, the nitrate movement was dominated by advective flux and highly affected by the recharge flux in the vertical direction. The

  6. Inter-annual variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as simulated with global terrestrial biosphere models and an atmospheric transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujita, Daisuke; Saeki, Tazu; Nakazawa, Takakiyo [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan). Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies; Ishizawa, Misa; Maksyutov, Shamil [Inst. for Global Change Research, Yokohama (Japan). Frontier Research System for Global Change; Thornton, Peter E. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Div.

    2003-04-01

    Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO{sub 2} fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon CYCLE in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO{sub 2} time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO{sub 2} concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation.

  7. Inter-annual variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as simulated with global terrestrial biosphere models and an atmospheric transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujita, Daisuke; Saeki, Tazu; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Ishizawa, Misa; Maksyutov, Shamil; Thornton, Peter E.

    2003-01-01

    Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO 2 for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO 2 fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon CYCLE in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO 2 time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO 2 concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO 2 observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO 2 , making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation

  8. Assessing the ability of isotope-enabled General Circulation Models to simulate the variability of Iceland water vapor isotopic composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erla Sveinbjornsdottir, Arny; Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Jonsson, Thorsteinn; Ritter, Francois; Riser, Camilla; Messon-Delmotte, Valerie; Bonne, Jean Louis; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe

    2014-05-01

    During the fall of 2010 we installed an autonomous water vapor spectroscopy laser (Los Gatos Research analyzer) in a lighthouse on the Southwest coast of Iceland (63.83°N, 21.47°W). Despite initial significant problems with volcanic ash, high wind, and attack of sea gulls, the system has been continuously operational since the end of 2011 with limited down time. The system automatically performs calibration every 2 hours, which results in high accuracy and precision allowing for analysis of the second order parameter, d-excess, in the water vapor. We find a strong linear relationship between d-excess and local relative humidity (RH) when normalized to SST. The observed slope of approximately -45 o/oo/% is similar to theoretical predictions by Merlivat and Jouzel [1979] for smooth surface, but the calculated intercept is significant lower than predicted. Despite this good linear agreement with theoretical calculations, mismatches arise between the simulated seasonal cycle of water vapour isotopic composition using LMDZiso GCM nudged to large-scale winds from atmospheric analyses, and our data. The GCM is not able to capture seasonal variations in local RH, nor seasonal variations in d-excess. Based on daily data, the performance of LMDZiso to resolve day-to-day variability is measured based on the strength of the correlation coefficient between observations and model outputs. This correlation coefficient reaches ~0.8 for surface absolute humidity, but decreases to ~0.6 for δD and ~0.45 d-excess. Moreover, the magnitude of day-to-day humidity variations is also underestimated by LMDZiso, which can explain the underestimated magnitude of isotopic depletion. Finally, the simulated and observed d-excess vs. RH has similar slopes. We conclude that the under-estimation of d-excess variability may partly arise from the poor performance of the humidity simulations.

  9. Studying radon exhalation rates variability from phosphogypsum piles in the SW of Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    López-Coto, I., E-mail: israel.lopez@dfa.uhu.es [Dpto. Física Aplicada, Facultad CC. Experimentales, University of Huelva, Campus de El Carmen s/n, 21007 Huelva (Spain); Mas, J.L. [Dpto. Física Aplicada I. Escuela Politécnica Superior, University of Sevilla, C/Virgen de Africa 7, 41012 Sevilla (Spain); Vargas, A. [Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Instituto de Técnicas Energéticas, Campus Sud Edificio ETSEIB, Planta 0, Pabellón C, Av. Diagonal 647, 08028 Barcelona (Spain); Bolívar, J.P. [Dpto. Física Aplicada, Facultad CC. Experimentales, University of Huelva, Campus de El Carmen s/n, 21007 Huelva (Spain)

    2014-09-15

    Highlights: • Variability of radon exhalation rates from PG piles has been studied using numerical simulation supported by experimental data. • Most relevant parameters controlling the exhalation rate are radon potential and moisture saturation. • Piling up the waste increasing the height instead of the surface allows the reduction of the exhalation rate. • A proposed cover here is expected to allow exhalation rates reductions up to 95%. - Abstract: Nearly 1.0 × 10{sup 8} tonnes of phosphogypsum were accumulated during last 50 years on a 1200 ha disposal site near Huelva town (SW of Spain). Previous measurements of exhalation rates offered very variable values, in such a way that a worst case scenario could not be established. Here, new experimental data coupled to numerical simulations show that increasing the moisture contents or the temperature reduces the exhalation rate whilst increasing the radon potential or porosity has the contrary effect. Once the relative effects are compared, it can be drawn that the most relevant parameters controlling the exhalation rate are radon potential (product of emanation factor by {sup 226}Ra concentration) and moisture saturation of PG. From wastes management point of view, it can be concluded that piling up the waste increasing the height instead of the surface allows the reduction of the exhalation rate. Furthermore, a proposed cover here is expected to allow exhalation rates reductions up to 95%. We established that the worst case scenario corresponds to a situation of extremely dry winter. Under these conditions, the radon exhalation rate (0.508 Bq m{sup −2} s{sup −1}) would be below though close to the upper limit established by U.S.E.P.A. for inactive phopsphogypsum piles (0.722 Bq m{sup −2} s{sup −1})

  10. Spatial variability of the response to climate change in regional groundwater systems -- examples from simulations in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.

    2013-01-01

    We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect

  11. Analysis of Medication Errors in Simulated Pediatric Resuscitation by Residents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evelyn Porter

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The objective of our study was to estimate the incidence of prescribing medication errors specifically made by a trainee and identify factors associated with these errors during the simulated resuscitation of a critically ill child. Methods: The results of the simulated resuscitation are described. We analyzed data from the simulated resuscitation for the occurrence of a prescribing medication error. We compared univariate analysis of each variable to medication error rate and performed a separate multiple logistic regression analysis on the significant univariate variables to assess the association between the selected variables. Results: We reviewed 49 simulated resuscitations . The final medication error rate for the simulation was 26.5% (95% CI 13.7% - 39.3%. On univariate analysis, statistically significant findings for decreased prescribing medication error rates included senior residents in charge, presence of a pharmacist, sleeping greater than 8 hours prior to the simulation, and a visual analog scale score showing more confidence in caring for critically ill children. Multiple logistic regression analysis using the above significant variables showed only the presence of a pharmacist to remain significantly associated with decreased medication error, odds ratio of 0.09 (95% CI 0.01 - 0.64. Conclusion: Our results indicate that the presence of a clinical pharmacist during the resuscitation of a critically ill child reduces the medication errors made by resident physician trainees.

  12. Variable selection for mixture and promotion time cure rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, Abdullah; Tu, Wanzhu; Yu, Zhangsheng

    2016-11-16

    Failure-time data with cured patients are common in clinical studies. Data from these studies are typically analyzed with cure rate models. Variable selection methods have not been well developed for cure rate models. In this research, we propose two least absolute shrinkage and selection operators based methods, for variable selection in mixture and promotion time cure models with parametric or nonparametric baseline hazards. We conduct an extensive simulation study to assess the operating characteristics of the proposed methods. We illustrate the use of the methods using data from a study of childhood wheezing. © The Author(s) 2016.

  13. The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Marrero

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

  14. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1991-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  15. Parametric Sensitivity Study of Operating and Design Variables in Wellbore Heat Exchangers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nalla, G.; Shook, G.M.; Mines, G.L.; Bloomfield, K.K.

    2004-01-01

    This report documents the results of an extensive sensitivity study conducted by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. This study investigated the effects of various operating and design parameters on wellbore heat exchanger performance to determine conditions for optimal thermal energy extraction and evaluate the potential for using a wellbore heat exchanger model for power generation. Variables studied included operational parameters such as circulation rates, wellbore geometries and working fluid properties, and regional properties including basal heat flux and formation rock type. Energy extraction is strongly affected by fluid residence time, heat transfer contact area, and formation thermal properties. Water appears to be the most appropriate working fluid. Aside from minimal tubing insulation, tubing properties are second order effects. On the basis of the sensitivity study, a best case model was simulated and the results compared against existing low-temperature power generation plants. Even assuming ideal work conversion to electric power, a wellbore heat exchange model cannot generate 200 kW (682.4e+3 BTU/h) at the onset of pseudosteady state. Using realistic conversion efficiency, the method is unlikely to generate 50 kW (170.6e+3 BTU/h)

  16. Stochastically-forced Decadal Variability in Australian Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taschetto, A.

    2015-12-01

    Iconic Australian dry and wet periods were driven by anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as the worst short-term drought in the southeast in 1982 associated with the strong El Niño and the widespread "Big Wet" in 1974 linked with a La Niña event. The association with oceanic conditions makes droughts predictable to some extent. However, prediction can be difficult when there is no clear external forcing such as El Niños. Can dry spells be triggered and maintained with no ocean memory? In this study, we investigate the potential role of internal multi-century atmospheric variability in controlling the frequency, duration and intensity of long-term dry and wet spells over Australia. Two multi-century-scale simulations were performed with the NCAR CESM: (1) a fully-coupled simulation (CPLD) and (2) an atmospheric simulation forced by a seasonal SST climatology derived from the coupled experiment (ACGM). Results reveal that droughts and wet spells can indeed be generated by internal variability of the atmosphere. Those internally generated events are less severe than those forced by oceanic variability, however the duration of dry and wet spells longer than 3 years is comparable with and without the ocean memory. Large-scale ocean modes of variability seem to play an important role in producing continental-scale rainfall impacts over Australia. While the Pacific Decadal Oscillation plays an important role in generating droughts in the fully coupled model, perturbations of monsoonal winds seem to be the main trigger of dry spells in the AGCM case. Droughts in the mid-latitude regions such as Tasmania can be driven by perturbations in the Southern Annular Mode, not necessarily linked to oceanic conditions even in the fully-coupled model. The mechanisms behind internally-driven mega-droughts and mega-wets will be discussed.

  17. Biological consequences of environmental changes related to coastal upwelling: a simulation study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howe, S.O.

    1979-05-01

    Two simulation models of marine ecosystem dynamics are formulated and applied to field data. The first is a time-dependent model of phytoplankton growth in nutrient-enriched batch cultures where spatial gradients of dependent variables and the effects of higher tropic level processes are not included. Rates of photosynthesis, nutrient uptake, chlorophyll synthesis and cell division for a single phytoplankton functional group are simulated as functions of photosynthetically active solar radiation, dissolved nutrient concentrations and cell quotas of carbon, nitrogen and silica. The second model combines the phytoplankton growth model with a time dependent, two-dimensional model of coastal upwelling off northwest Africa.

  18. Simulated interannual variability of the Greenland Sea deep water formation and its connection to surface forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haekkinen, Sirpa

    1995-01-01

    A fully prognostic Arctic ice-ocean model is used to study the interannual variability of deepwater formation in the Greenland Sea Gyre based on the simulations for the Arctic ice-ocean system for the period 1955 and 1960 - 1985. The model uses monthly climatology for thermodynamic forcing components (such as air temperature and cloudiness), together with constant annual net precipitation and river runoff. The daily wind forcing is derived from analyzed sea level air pressures from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). In summary, the model shows that the occurence of deep convection in the Greenland Sea Gyre is controlled by the extensive Fram Strait ice export and/or local wind conditions in the Greenland Sea. In the latter case the weakening of the local wind curl allows the Polar Front to move eastward. The movement of the Polar Front causes adverse ice conditions, often together with much larger than normal ice export from the Arctic, such as in 1968, which can block convection in the gyre. The density difference between upper and lower layers is investigated as an indication of water mass formation through convection, occurring as strong diffusion in the model. The model-simulated density difference between the average top 100 m and deep levels reveals that the period 1960 - 1985 had only a few distinct years with weak stratification, and, especially, the model predicts no deep convection since the nid-1970s. The common factor for the years of the weakest decrease of the model-predicted heat content of the upper 2000 m which can, to a high degree, be explained by local heat loss.

  19. Diffusion simulation of ferric ions in dosemeter Fricke-gel with variable diffusion coefficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milani, Caio Jacob; Bevilacqua, Joyce da Silva; Rodrigues Junior, Orlando

    2014-01-01

    Dosimetry using dosimeters Fricke-xylenol-Gel (FXG) allows confirmation and better understanding of radiotherapy treatments. The technique involves the evaluation of volumes irradiated by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or CT-optical. In both cases, the time spent between the irradiation and measurement is an important factor that directly influences the results. The quality of the images can be compromised by the mobility of ferric ions (Fe 3+), formed during the interaction of radiation with matter, increasing the uncertainty in determining the isodose. In this work, we simulated the dynamic involving ferric ions formed in one irradiated region irradiated in a two-dimensional domain with a variable diffusion coefficient. This phenomenon is modeled by a differential equation and solved numerically by an efficient algorithm that generalizes the Crank-Nicolson method. The stability and consistency of the method guarantee the convergence of the numerical solution for a predefined tolerance based in the choice of discretization steps of time and space. Different continuous functions were chosen to represent the diffusion coefficient and graphical views of the phenomenon are presented for a better understanding of the process

  20. A protocol for conducting rainfall simulation to study soil runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibet, Leonard C; Saporito, Louis S; Allen, Arthur L; May, Eric B; Kleinman, Peter J A; Hashem, Fawzy M; Bryant, Ray B

    2014-04-03

    Rainfall is a driving force for the transport of environmental contaminants from agricultural soils to surficial water bodies via surface runoff. The objective of this study was to characterize the effects of antecedent soil moisture content on the fate and transport of surface applied commercial urea, a common form of nitrogen (N) fertilizer, following a rainfall event that occurs within 24 hr after fertilizer application. Although urea is assumed to be readily hydrolyzed to ammonium and therefore not often available for transport, recent studies suggest that urea can be transported from agricultural soils to coastal waters where it is implicated in harmful algal blooms. A rainfall simulator was used to apply a consistent rate of uniform rainfall across packed soil boxes that had been prewetted to different soil moisture contents. By controlling rainfall and soil physical characteristics, the effects of antecedent soil moisture on urea loss were isolated. Wetter soils exhibited shorter time from rainfall initiation to runoff initiation, greater total volume of runoff, higher urea concentrations in runoff, and greater mass loadings of urea in runoff. These results also demonstrate the importance of controlling for antecedent soil moisture content in studies designed to isolate other variables, such as soil physical or chemical characteristics, slope, soil cover, management, or rainfall characteristics. Because rainfall simulators are designed to deliver raindrops of similar size and velocity as natural rainfall, studies conducted under a standardized protocol can yield valuable data that, in turn, can be used to develop models for predicting the fate and transport of pollutants in runoff.

  1. The Effect of the Interannual Variability of the OH Sink on the Interannual Variability of the Atmospheric Methane Mixing Ratio and Carbon Stable Isotope Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillermo Nuñez Ramirez, Tonatiuh; Houweling, Sander; Marshall, Julia; Williams, Jason; Brailsford, Gordon; Schneising, Oliver; Heimann, Martin

    2013-04-01

    The atmospheric hydroxyl radical concentration (OH) varies due to changes in the incoming UV radiation, in the abundance of atmospheric species involved in the production, recycling and destruction of OH molecules and due to climate variability. Variability in carbon monoxide emissions from biomass burning induced by El Niño Southern Oscillation are particularly important. Although the OH sink accounts for the oxidation of approximately 90% of atmospheric CH4, the effect of the variability in the distribution and strength of the OH sink on the interannual variability of atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratio and stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C-CH4) has often been ignored. To show this effect we simulated the atmospheric signals of CH4 in a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model (TM3). ERA Interim reanalysis data provided the atmospheric transport and temperature variability from 1990 to 2010. We performed simulations using time dependent OH concentration estimations from an atmospheric chemistry transport model and an atmospheric chemistry climate model. The models assumed a different set of reactions and algorithms which caused a very different strength and distribution of the OH concentration. Methane emissions were based on published bottom-up estimates including inventories, upscaled estimations and modeled fluxes. The simulations also included modeled concentrations of atomic chlorine (Cl) and excited oxygen atoms (O(1D)). The isotopic signal of the sources and the fractionation factors of the sinks were based on literature values, however the isotopic signal from wetlands and enteric fermentation processes followed a linear relationship with a map of C4 plant fraction. The same set of CH4emissions and stratospheric reactants was used in all simulations. Two simulations were done per OH field: one in which the CH4 sources were allowed to vary interannually, and a second where the sources were climatological. The simulated mixing ratios and

  2. Hydrology of major North American watersheds as simulated by the CRCM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Music, B.; Caya, D.

    2008-01-01

    The present study investigates the sensitivity of the water budget components simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) to the formulation of land surface processes, lateral boundary and initial conditions. This evaluation is a contribution to the estimation of the uncertainty associated to RCM simulations. Sensitivity analyses were carried out for climatological means, climatological annual cycles and interannual variability, over the period 1961-1999 for several North American River basins, selected to cover a wide range of climate conditions. Three pairs of simulations have been used: the first one was generated using two different land-surface schemes (LSSs): a simple Manabe-based and complex second-generation scheme; the simulations in the second pair differ in the driving data (NCEP/NCAR vs ERA40 reanalysis); and simulations in the third pair were started at different times (estimation of internal variability). An evaluation of the simulated water budget components is carried out. Results indicate that changes in climatological means and annual cycles of the water budget components resulting from different LLSs and from different lateral boundary conditions vary from basin to basin. Sensitivity to lateral boundary conditions was in general smaller than sensitivity to the LSS, although tended to be stronger for the northern basins. Interannual variability was not much affected by the change in LSS and driving data. Internal variability does not significantly affect neither the 39-year climatology nor the climatological annual cycles and interannual variability. Comparison with observations suggests that while simple Manabe-based LSS may be adequate for simulations of climatological means, skilful simulation of annual cycles require the use of a state-of-the-art LSS. (author)

  3. Regional deep hyperthermia: impact of observer variability in CT-based manual tissue segmentation on simulated temperature distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aklan, Bassim; Hartmann, Josefin; Zink, Diana; Siavooshhaghighi, Hadi; Merten, Ricarda; Putz, Florian; Ott, Oliver; Fietkau, Rainer; Bert, Christoph

    2017-06-01

    The aim of this study was to systematically investigate the influence of the inter- and intra-observer segmentation variation of tumors and organs at risk on the simulated temperature coverage of the target. CT scans of six patients with tumors in the pelvic region acquired for radiotherapy treatment planning were used for hyperthermia treatment planning. To study the effect of inter-observer variation, three observers manually segmented in the CT images of each patient the following structures: fat, muscle, bone and the bladder. The gross tumor volumes (GTV) were contoured by three radiation oncology residents and used as the hyperthermia target volumes. For intra-observer variation, one of the observers of each group contoured the structures of each patient three times with a time span of one week between the segmentations. Moreover, the impact of segmentation variations in organs at risk (OARs) between the three inter-observers was investigated on simulated temperature distributions using only one GTV. The spatial overlap between individual segmentations was assessed by the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) and the mean surface distance (MSD). Additionally, the temperatures T90/T10 delivered to 90%/10% of the GTV, respectively, were assessed for each observer combination. The results of the segmentation similarity evaluation showed that the DSC of the inter-observer variation of fat, muscle, the bladder, bone and the target was 0.68  ±  0.12, 0.88  ±  0.05, 0.73  ±  0.14, 0.91  ±  0.04 and 0.64  ±  0.11, respectively. Similar results were found for the intra-observer variation. The MSD results were similar to the DSCs for both observer variations. A statistically significant difference (p  <  0.05) was found for T90 and T10 in the predicted target temperature due to the observer variability. The conclusion is that intra- and inter-observer variations have a significant impact on the temperature coverage of the

  4. Simulated and observed trends in key variables of the Arctic marine carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goris, Nadine; Heinze, Christoph; Lauvset, Siv; Petrenko, Dmitry; Pozdnyakov, Dmitry; Schwinger, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    For the Arctic region, a thorough monitoring of the marine carbon cycle is important, as the general "polar amplification" of climate change also translates into the biogeochemical realm. As compared to the global ocean, the sink for human-produced CO2 is fairly small in the Arctic Ocean itself. Nevertheless, it is important to follow up this Arctic sink as a further control of the regional carbon budget and to record changes in the marine carbon cycle on the way towards a "blue Arctic". Since observations on the Arctic are rare, the EU FP7 MONARCH-A project tries to enable adequate descriptions of the status and evolution of the Arctic region Earth system components by generating time series of observation datasets and model hindcasts. In terms of the marine carbon cycle, this analysis focuses mainly on the key variables pCO2 and primary productivity. For oceanic pCO2, the comprehensive data-sets SOCAT and LDEO were combined, while measurements of atmospheric CO2 were collected from the GLOBALVIEW-CO2 data integration project. Monthly Primary Production fields were retrieved from the sensors MODIS and SeaWiFs. In order to get an overall picture of the behavior and trends of those key variables, in addition the physical-biogeochemical model MICOM-HAMOCC-M was employed. The investigation showed that both oceanic and atmospheric pCO2 are consistent variables which have a regular annual cycle and a similar behaviour all over the Arctic for both model and data. In contrast, primary production shows an irregular annual cycle in both range and form, varying over the Arctic. While a few well distributed measurement stations with continuous observations are sufficient to get a comprehensive picture for consistent variables like pCO2, it is relatively difficult and costly to get a comprehensive record of non-consistent variables. Since the provided data-set for primary production covers a relatively short time-scale, it was neither possible to confidently validate the model

  5. Variable Selection via Partial Correlation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Runze; Liu, Jingyuan; Lou, Lejia

    2017-07-01

    Partial correlation based variable selection method was proposed for normal linear regression models by Bühlmann, Kalisch and Maathuis (2010) as a comparable alternative method to regularization methods for variable selection. This paper addresses two important issues related to partial correlation based variable selection method: (a) whether this method is sensitive to normality assumption, and (b) whether this method is valid when the dimension of predictor increases in an exponential rate of the sample size. To address issue (a), we systematically study this method for elliptical linear regression models. Our finding indicates that the original proposal may lead to inferior performance when the marginal kurtosis of predictor is not close to that of normal distribution. Our simulation results further confirm this finding. To ensure the superior performance of partial correlation based variable selection procedure, we propose a thresholded partial correlation (TPC) approach to select significant variables in linear regression models. We establish the selection consistency of the TPC in the presence of ultrahigh dimensional predictors. Since the TPC procedure includes the original proposal as a special case, our theoretical results address the issue (b) directly. As a by-product, the sure screening property of the first step of TPC was obtained. The numerical examples also illustrate that the TPC is competitively comparable to the commonly-used regularization methods for variable selection.

  6. Risk Assessment of Sediment Pollution Using Geostatistical Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golay, J.; Kanevski, M.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental monitoring networks (EMN) discreetly measure the intensities of continuous phenomena (e.g. pollution, temperature, etc.). Spatial prediction models, like kriging, are then used for modeling. But, they give rise to smooth representations of phenomena which leads to overestimations or underestimations of extreme values. Moreover, they do not reproduce the spatial variability of the original data and the corresponding uncertainties. When dealing with risk assessment, this is unacceptable, since extreme values must be retrieved and probabilities of exceeding given thresholds must be computed [Kanevski et al., 2009]. In order to overcome these obstacles, geostatistics provides another approach: conditional stochastic simulations. Here, the basic idea is to generate multiple estimates of variable values (e.g. pollution concentration) at every location of interest which are calculated as stochastic realizations of an unknown random function (see, for example, [Kanevski, 2008], where both theoretical concepts and real data case studies are presented in detail). Many algorithms implement this approach. The most widely used in spatial modeling are sequential Gaussian simulations/cosimulations, sequential indicator simulations/cosimulations and direct simulations. In the present study, several algorithms of geostatistical conditional simulations were applied on real data collected from Lake Geneva. The main objectives were to compare their effectiveness in reproducing global statistics (histograms, variograms) and the way they characterize the variability and uncertainty of the contamination patterns. The dataset is composed of 200 measurements of the contamination of the lake sediments by heavy metals (i.e. Cadmium, Mercury, Zinc, Copper, Titanium and Chromium). The results obtained show some differences highlighting that risk assessment can be influenced by the algorithm it relies on. Moreover, hybrid models based on machine learning algorithms and

  7. Effects of the Distance from a Diffusive Surface on the Objective and Perceptual Evaluation of the Sound Field in a Small Simulated Variable-Acoustics Hall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louena Shtrepi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of the acoustic effects that diffusive surfaces have on the objective acoustic parameters and on sound perception have not yet been fully understood. To this end, acoustic simulations have been performed in Odeon in the model of a variable-acoustic concert hall. This paper is presented as a follow-up study to a previous paper that dealt with in-field measurements only. As in measurements, a diffusive and a reflective condition of one of the lateral walls have been considered in the room models. Two modeling alternatives of the diffusive condition, that is, (a a flat surface with high scattering coefficient applied; and (b a triangular relief modeled including edge diffraction, have been investigated. Objective acoustic parameters, such as early decay time (EDT, reverberation time (T30, clarity (C80, definition (D50, and interaural cross correlation (IACC, have been compared between the two conditions. Moreover, an auditory experiment has been performed to determine the maximum distance from a diffusive surface at which the simulated acoustic scattering effects are still audible. Although the simulated objective results showed a good match with measured values, the subjective results showed that the differences between the diffuse and reflective conditions become significant when model (b is used.

  8. Multivariate stochastic simulation with subjective multivariate normal distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. J. Ince; J. Buongiorno

    1991-01-01

    In many applications of Monte Carlo simulation in forestry or forest products, it may be known that some variables are correlated. However, for simplicity, in most simulations it has been assumed that random variables are independently distributed. This report describes an alternative Monte Carlo simulation technique for subjectively assesed multivariate normal...

  9. Capturing heterogeneity in gene expression studies by surrogate variable analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey T Leek

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available It has unambiguously been shown that genetic, environmental, demographic, and technical factors may have substantial effects on gene expression levels. In addition to the measured variable(s of interest, there will tend to be sources of signal due to factors that are unknown, unmeasured, or too complicated to capture through simple models. We show that failing to incorporate these sources of heterogeneity into an analysis can have widespread and detrimental effects on the study. Not only can this reduce power or induce unwanted dependence across genes, but it can also introduce sources of spurious signal to many genes. This phenomenon is true even for well-designed, randomized studies. We introduce "surrogate variable analysis" (SVA to overcome the problems caused by heterogeneity in expression studies. SVA can be applied in conjunction with standard analysis techniques to accurately capture the relationship between expression and any modeled variables of interest. We apply SVA to disease class, time course, and genetics of gene expression studies. We show that SVA increases the biological accuracy and reproducibility of analyses in genome-wide expression studies.

  10. Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Luke Alexander

    Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall

  11. Developing a stochastic parameterization to incorporate plant trait variability into ecohydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S.; Ng, G. H. C.

    2017-12-01

    The global plant database has revealed that plant traits can vary more within a plant functional type (PFT) than among different PFTs, indicating that the current paradigm in ecohydrogical models of specifying fixed parameters based solely on plant functional type (PFT) could potentially bias simulations. Although some recent modeling studies have attempted to incorporate this observed plant trait variability, many failed to consider uncertainties due to sparse global observation, or they omitted spatial and/or temporal variability in the traits. Here we present a stochastic parameterization for prognostic vegetation simulations that are stochastic in time and space in order to represent plant trait plasticity - the process by which trait differences arise. We have developed the new PFT parameterization within the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM 4.5) and tested the method for a desert shrubland watershed in the Mojave Desert, where fixed parameterizations cannot represent acclimation to desert conditions. Spatiotemporally correlated plant trait parameters were first generated based on TRY statistics and were then used to implement ensemble runs for the study area. The new PFT parameterization was then further conditioned on field measurements of soil moisture and remotely sensed observations of leaf-area-index to constrain uncertainties in the sparse global database. Our preliminary results show that incorporating data-conditioned, variable PFT parameterizations strongly affects simulated soil moisture and water fluxes, compared with default simulations. The results also provide new insights about correlations among plant trait parameters and between traits and environmental conditions in the desert shrubland watershed. Our proposed stochastic PFT parameterization method for ecohydrological models has great potential in advancing our understanding of how terrestrial ecosystems are predicted to adapt to variable environmental conditions.

  12. Nutritional variables and work-related accidents: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Medeiros, M A T; Zangirolani, Lia Thieme Oikawa; Cordeiro, Ricardo Carlos; da Costa, Proença Rossana Pacheco; Diez-Garcia, Rosa Wanda

    2014-01-01

    Nutritional aspects are important for the prevention of diseases and disorders, and few studies have focused on the relationship between risk of work injury and nutritional variables. This study aimed to verify whether nutritional variables constitute risk factors for work-related accidents. 1,422 industrial workers (600 cases plus 822 controls). A case-control study was carried out in an industrial city in south-east Brazil. A multiple logistic regression model was adjusted using work-related accidents as the response variable and nutritional variables as predictors. The associations were assessed by Odds Ratio (OR), with a p-value work-related accidents were (a) attending formal education for an above average number of years (OR=0.91, pwork-related accidents. This indicates the need, during the formulation of policies for these kinds of government benefits, to include nutrition aspects in order to minimize work-related accidents risks.

  13. Inference for binomial probability based on dependent Bernoulli random variables with applications to meta-analysis and group level studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakbergenuly, Ilyas; Kulinskaya, Elena; Morgenthaler, Stephan

    2016-07-01

    We study bias arising as a result of nonlinear transformations of random variables in random or mixed effects models and its effect on inference in group-level studies or in meta-analysis. The findings are illustrated on the example of overdispersed binomial distributions, where we demonstrate considerable biases arising from standard log-odds and arcsine transformations of the estimated probability p̂, both for single-group studies and in combining results from several groups or studies in meta-analysis. Our simulations confirm that these biases are linear in ρ, for small values of ρ, the intracluster correlation coefficient. These biases do not depend on the sample sizes or the number of studies K in a meta-analysis and result in abysmal coverage of the combined effect for large K. We also propose bias-correction for the arcsine transformation. Our simulations demonstrate that this bias-correction works well for small values of the intraclass correlation. The methods are applied to two examples of meta-analyses of prevalence. © 2016 The Authors. Biometrical Journal Published by Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.

  14. Multiple imputation using linked proxy outcome data resulted in important bias reduction and efficiency gains: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornish, R P; Macleod, J; Carpenter, J R; Tilling, K

    2017-01-01

    When an outcome variable is missing not at random (MNAR: probability of missingness depends on outcome values), estimates of the effect of an exposure on this outcome are often biased. We investigated the extent of this bias and examined whether the bias can be reduced through incorporating proxy outcomes obtained through linkage to administrative data as auxiliary variables in multiple imputation (MI). Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) we estimated the association between breastfeeding and IQ (continuous outcome), incorporating linked attainment data (proxies for IQ) as auxiliary variables in MI models. Simulation studies explored the impact of varying the proportion of missing data (from 20 to 80%), the correlation between the outcome and its proxy (0.1-0.9), the strength of the missing data mechanism, and having a proxy variable that was incomplete. Incorporating a linked proxy for the missing outcome as an auxiliary variable reduced bias and increased efficiency in all scenarios, even when 80% of the outcome was missing. Using an incomplete proxy was similarly beneficial. High correlations (> 0.5) between the outcome and its proxy substantially reduced the missing information. Consistent with this, ALSPAC analysis showed inclusion of a proxy reduced bias and improved efficiency. Gains with additional proxies were modest. In longitudinal studies with loss to follow-up, incorporating proxies for this study outcome obtained via linkage to external sources of data as auxiliary variables in MI models can give practically important bias reduction and efficiency gains when the study outcome is MNAR.

  15. Rn3D: A finite element code for simulating gas flow and radon transport in variably saturated, nonisothermal porous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holford, D.J.

    1994-01-01

    This document is a user's manual for the Rn3D finite element code. Rn3D was developed to simulate gas flow and radon transport in variably saturated, nonisothermal porous media. The Rn3D model is applicable to a wide range of problems involving radon transport in soil because it can simulate either steady-state or transient flow and transport in one-, two- or three-dimensions (including radially symmetric two-dimensional problems). The porous materials may be heterogeneous and anisotropic. This manual describes all pertinent mathematics related to the governing, boundary, and constitutive equations of the model, as well as the development of the finite element equations used in the code. Instructions are given for constructing Rn3D input files and executing the code, as well as a description of all output files generated by the code. Five verification problems are given that test various aspects of code operation, complete with example input files, FORTRAN programs for the respective analytical solutions, and plots of model results. An example simulation is presented to illustrate the type of problem Rn3D is designed to solve. Finally, instructions are given on how to convert Rn3D to simulate systems other than radon, air, and water

  16. A Simulation-based Approach to Measuring Team Situational Awareness in Emergency Medicine: A Multicenter, Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenman, Elizabeth D; Dixon, Aurora J; Webb, Jessica M; Brolliar, Sarah; Golden, Simon J; Jones, Kerin A; Shah, Sachita; Grand, James A; Kozlowski, Steve W J; Chao, Georgia T; Fernandez, Rosemarie

    2018-02-01

    Team situational awareness (TSA) is critical for effective teamwork and supports dynamic decision making in unpredictable, time-pressured situations. Simulation provides a platform for developing and assessing TSA, but these efforts are limited by suboptimal measurement approaches. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a novel approach to TSA measurement in interprofessional emergency medicine (EM) teams. We performed a multicenter, prospective, simulation-based observational study to evaluate an approach to TSA measurement. Interprofessional emergency medical teams, consisting of EM resident physicians, nurses, and medical students, were recruited from the University of Washington (Seattle, WA) and Wayne State University (Detroit, MI). Each team completed a simulated emergency resuscitation scenario. Immediately following the simulation, team members completed a TSA measure, a team perception of shared understanding measure, and a team leader effectiveness measure. Subject matter expert reviews and pilot testing of the TSA measure provided evidence of content and response process validity. Simulations were recorded and independently coded for team performance using a previously validated measure. The relationships between the TSA measure and other variables (team clinical performance, team perception of shared understanding, team leader effectiveness, and team experience) were explored. The TSA agreement metric was indexed by averaging the pairwise agreement for each dyad on a team and then averaging across dyads to yield agreement at the team level. For the team perception of shared understanding and team leadership effectiveness measures, individual team member scores were aggregated within a team to create a single team score. We computed descriptive statistics for all outcomes. We calculated Pearson's product-moment correlations to determine bivariate correlations between outcome variables with two-tailed significance testing (p teams (n = 41

  17. Use of agricultural statistics to verify the interannual variability in land surface models: a case study over France with ISBA-A-gs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-C. Calvet

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to verify the interannual variability of the above-ground biomass of herbaceous vegetation simulated by the ISBA-A-gs land surface model, within the SURFEX modelling platform, French agricultural statistics for C3 crops and grasslands were compared with the simulations for the 1994–2008 period. While excellent correlations are obtained for grasslands, representing the interannual variability of crops is more difficult. It is shown that, the Maximum Available soil Water Capacity (MaxAWC has a large influence on the correlation between the model and the agricultural statistics. In particular, high values of MaxAWC tend to reduce the impact of the climate interannual variability on the simulated biomass. Also, high values of MaxAWC allow the simulation of a negative trend in biomass production, in relation to a marked warming trend, of about 0.12 Kyr−1 on average, affecting the daily maximum air temperature during the growing period (April–June. This trend is particularly acute in Northern France. The estimates of MaxAWC for C3 crops and grasslands, currently used in SURFEX, are about 129 mm and do not vary much. Therefore, more accurate grid-cell values of this parameter are needed.

  18. Penalized variable selection in competing risks regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Zhixuan; Parikh, Chirag R; Zhou, Bingqing

    2017-07-01

    Penalized variable selection methods have been extensively studied for standard time-to-event data. Such methods cannot be directly applied when subjects are at risk of multiple mutually exclusive events, known as competing risks. The proportional subdistribution hazard (PSH) model proposed by Fine and Gray (J Am Stat Assoc 94:496-509, 1999) has become a popular semi-parametric model for time-to-event data with competing risks. It allows for direct assessment of covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. In this paper, we propose a general penalized variable selection strategy that simultaneously handles variable selection and parameter estimation in the PSH model. We rigorously establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed penalized estimators and modify the coordinate descent algorithm for implementation. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the good performance of the proposed method. Data from deceased donor kidney transplants from the United Network of Organ Sharing illustrate the utility of the proposed method.

  19. Spatial and temporal variability of interhemispheric transport times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaokang; Yang, Huang; Waugh, Darryn W.; Orbe, Clara; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

    2018-05-01

    The seasonal and interannual variability of transport times from the northern midlatitude surface into the Southern Hemisphere is examined using simulations of three idealized age tracers: an ideal age tracer that yields the mean transit time from northern midlatitudes and two tracers with uniform 50- and 5-day decay. For all tracers the largest seasonal and interannual variability occurs near the surface within the tropics and is generally closely coupled to movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). There are, however, notable differences in variability between the different tracers. The largest seasonal and interannual variability in the mean age is generally confined to latitudes spanning the ITCZ, with very weak variability in the southern extratropics. In contrast, for tracers subject to spatially uniform exponential loss the peak variability tends to be south of the ITCZ, and there is a smaller contrast between tropical and extratropical variability. These differences in variability occur because the distribution of transit times from northern midlatitudes is very broad and tracers with more rapid loss are more sensitive to changes in fast transit times than the mean age tracer. These simulations suggest that the seasonal-interannual variability in the southern extratropics of trace gases with predominantly NH midlatitude sources may differ depending on the gases' chemical lifetimes.

  20. Climatology and variability in the ECHO coupled GCM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latif, M.; Stockdale, T.; Wolff, J.; Burgers, G.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Junge, M.M.; Arpe, K.; Bengtsson, L.

    1993-01-01

    ECHO is a new global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM), consisting of the Hamburg version of the European Centre atmospheric GCM (ECHAM) and the Hamburg Primitive Equation ocean GCM (HOPE). We performed a twenty year integration with ECHO. Climate drift is significant, but typical in the open oceans. Near the boundaries, however, SST errors are considerably larger. The coupled model simulates an irregular ENSO cycle in the tropical Pacific, with spatial patterns similar to those observed. The mechanism behind the model ENSO is related to the subsurface memory of the system, but stochastic forcing by the atmosphere seems to be also important. The variability, however, is somewhat weaker relative to observations. ECHO also simulates significant interannual variability in midlatitudes. Consistent with observations, variability over the North Pacific can be partly attributed to remote forcing from the tropics. In contract, the interannual variability over the North Atlantic appears to be generated locally. Indications for decadal-scale variability are also found over the North Atlantic. (orig.)

  1. Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability

    CERN Document Server

    Molteni, F; Ferranti, L; Slingo, J M

    2003-01-01

    The effects of SST anomalies on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon have been studied by multivariate statistical analyses of 850-hPa wind and rainfall fields simulated in a set of ensemble integrations of the ECMWF atmospheric GCM, referred to as the PRISM experiments. The simulations used observed SSTs (PRISM-O), covering 9 years characterised by large variations of the ENSO phenomenon in the 1980's and the early 1990's. A parallel set of simulations was also performed with climatological SSTs (PRISM-C), thus enabling the influence of SST forcing on the modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability to be investigated. As in observations, the model's interannual variability is dominated by a zonally-oriented mode which describes the north-south movement of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). This mode appears to be independent of SST forcing and its robustness between the PRISM-O and PRISM-C simulations suggests that it is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics. O...

  2. Studies on variable swirl intake system for DI diesel engine using computational fluid dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jebamani Rathnaraj David

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available It is known that a helical port is more effective than a tangential port to attain the required swirl ratio with minimum sacrifice in the volumetric efficiency. The swirl port is designed for lesser swirl ratio to reduce emissions at higher speeds. But this condition increases the air fuel mixing time and particulate smoke emissions at lower speeds. Optimum swirl ratio is necessary according to the engine operating condition for optimum combustion and emission reduction. Hence the engine needs variable swirl to enhance the combustion in the cylinder according to its operating conditions, for example at partial load or low speed condition it requires stronger swirl, while the air quantity is more important than the swirl under very high speed or full load and maximum torque conditions. The swirl and charging quantity can easily trade off and can be controlled by the opening of the valve. Hence in this study the steady flow rig experiment is used to evaluate the swirl of a helical intake port design for different operating conditions. The variable swirl plate set up of the W06DTIE2 engine is used to experimentally study the swirl variation for different openings of the valve. The sliding of the swirl plate results in the variation of the area of inlet port entry. Therefore in this study a swirl optimized combustion system varying according to the operating conditions by a variable swirl plate mechanism is studied experimentally and compared with the computational fluid dynamics predictions. In this study the fluent computational fluid dynamics code has been used to evaluate the flow in the port-cylinder system of a DI diesel engine in a steady flow rig. The computational grid is generated directly from 3-D CAD data and in cylinder flow simulations, with inflow boundary conditions from experimental measurements, are made using the fluent computational fluid dynamics code. The results are in very good agreement with experimental results.

  3. Visual interrogation of gyrokinetic particle simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Chad; Ma, K-L; Sanderson, Allen; Myers, Lee Roy Jr

    2007-01-01

    Gyrokinetic particle simulations are critical to the study of anomalous energy transport associated with plasma microturbulence in magnetic confinement fusion experiments. The simulations are conducted on massively parallel computers and produce large quantities of particles, variables, and time steps, thus presenting a formidable challenge to data analysis tasks. We present two new visualization techniques for scientists to improve their understanding of the time-varying, multivariate particle data. One technique allows scientists to examine correlations in multivariate particle data with tightly coupled views of the data in both physical space and variable space, and to visually identify and track features of interest. The second technique, built into SCIRun, allows scientists to perform range-based queries over a series of time slices and visualize the resulting particles using glyphs. The ability to navigate the multiple dimensions of the particle data, as well as query individual or a collection of particles, enables scientists to not only validate their simulations but also discover new phenomena in their data

  4. Intelligent control for large-scale variable speed variable pitch wind turbines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xinfang ZHANG; Daping XU; Yibing LIU

    2004-01-01

    Large-scale wind turbine generator systems have strong nonlinear multivariable characteristics with many uncertain factors and disturbances.Automatic control is crucial for the efficiency and reliability of wind turbines.On the basis of simplified and proper model of variable speed variable pitch wind turbines,the effective wind speed is estimated using extended Kalman filter.Intelligent control schemes proposed in the paper include two loops which operate in synchronism with each other.At below-rated wind speed,the inner loop adopts adaptive fuzzy control based on variable universe for generator torque regulation to realize maximum wind energy capture.At above-rated wind speed, a controller based on least square support vector machine is proposed to adjust pitch angle and keep rated output power.The simulation shows the effectiveness of the intelligent control.

  5. Simulation of the intraseasonal variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Xianan [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Waliser, Duane E. [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), La Canada Flintridge, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab.; Kim, Daehyun [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Zhao, Ming [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Sperber, Kenneth R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Stern, William F. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Schubert, Siegfried D. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States); Zhang, Guang J. [Scripps Institute of Oceanography. La Jolla, California (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Protection. Camp Springs, MD (United States); Khairoutdinov, Marat [Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary Atmospheres. Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States); Neale, Richard B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research. Boulder, CO (United States); Lee, Myong-In [Ulsan National Institute for Science and Technology. Seoul (Korea)

    2012-08-01

    During boreal summer, convective activity over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) exhibits vigorous intraseasonal variability (ISV). Previous observational studies identified two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC, i.e., a 40-day mode and a quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The 40-day ISV mode is generally considered a local expression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, in addition to the eastward propagation, northward propagation of the 40-day mode is also evident. The QBM mode bears a smaller spatial scale than the 40-day mode, and is largely characterized by northward propagation. While the ISV over the EPAC exerts significant influences on regional climate/weather systems, investigation of contemporary model capabilities in representing these ISV modes over the EPAC is limited. In this study, the model fidelity in representing these two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC is assessed by analyzing six atmospheric and three coupled general circulation models (GCMs), including one super-parameterized GCM (SPCAM) and one recently developed high-resolution GCM (GFDL HIRAM) with horizontal resolution of about 50 km. While it remains challenging for GCMs to faithfully represent these two ISV modes including their amplitude, evolution patterns, and periodicities, encouraging simulations are also noted. In general, SPCAM and HIRAM exhibit relatively superior skill in representing the two ISV modes over the EPAC. While the advantage of SPCAM is achieved through explicit representation of the cumulus process by the embedded 2-D cloud resolving models, the improved representation in HIRAM could be ascribed to the employment of a strongly entraining plume cumulus scheme, which inhibits the deep convection, and thus effectively enhances the stratiform rainfall. The sensitivity tests based on HIRAM also suggest that fine horizontal resolution could also be conducive to realistically capture the ISV over the EPAC, particularly for the QBM mode

  6. Simulation of the Intraseasonal Variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xianan; Waliser, Duane E.; Kim, Daehyun; Zhao, Ming; Sperber, Kenneth R.; Stern, W. F.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Zhang, Guang J.; Wang, Wanqiu; Khairoutdinov, Marat; hide

    2012-01-01

    During boreal summer, convective activity over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) exhibits vigorous intraseasonal variability (ISV). Previous observational studies identified two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC, i.e., a 40-day mode and a quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The 40-day ISV mode is generally considered a local expression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, in addition to the eastward propagation, northward propagation of the 40-day mode is also evident. The QBM mode bears a smaller spatial scale than the 40-day mode, and is largely characterized by northward propagation. While the ISV over the EPAC exerts significant influences on regional climate/weather systems, investigation of contemporary model capabilities in representing these ISV modes over the EPAC is limited. In this study, the model fidelity in representing these two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC is assessed by analyzing six atmospheric and three coupled general circulation models (GCMs), including one super-parameterized GCM (SPCAM) and one recently developed high-resolution GCM (GFDL HIRAM) with horizontal resolution of about 50 km. While it remains challenging for GCMs to faithfully represent these two ISV modes including their amplitude, evolution patterns, and periodicities, encouraging simulations are also noted. In general, SPCAM and HIRAM exhibit relatively superior skill in representing the two ISV modes over the EPAC. While the advantage of SPCAM is achieved through explicit representation of the cumulus process by the embedded 2-D cloud resolving models, the improved representation in HIRAM could be ascribed to the employment of a strongly entraining plume cumulus scheme, which inhibits the deep convection, and thus effectively enhances the stratiform rainfall. The sensitivity tests based on HIRAM also suggest that fine horizontal resolution could also be conducive to realistically capture the ISV over the EPAC, particularly for the QBM mode

  7. Simulation of the intraseasonal variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Xianan [University of California, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, Los Angeles, CA (United States); California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA (United States); Waliser, Duane E. [California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA (United States); Kim, Daehyun [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York, NY (United States); Zhao, Ming; Stern, William F. [NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States); Sperber, Kenneth R. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA (United States); Schubert, Siegfried D. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Zhang, Guang J. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Khairoutdinov, Marat [Stony Brook University, Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary Atmospheres, Stony Brook, NY (United States); Neale, Richard B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Lee, Myong-In [Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-08-15

    During boreal summer, convective activity over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) exhibits vigorous intraseasonal variability (ISV). Previous observational studies identified two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC, i.e., a 40-day mode and a quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The 40-day ISV mode is generally considered a local expression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, in addition to the eastward propagation, northward propagation of the 40-day mode is also evident. The QBM mode bears a smaller spatial scale than the 40-day mode, and is largely characterized by northward propagation. While the ISV over the EPAC exerts significant influences on regional climate/weather systems, investigation of contemporary model capabilities in representing these ISV modes over the EPAC is limited. In this study, the model fidelity in representing these two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC is assessed by analyzing six atmospheric and three coupled general circulation models (GCMs), including one super-parameterized GCM (SPCAM) and one recently developed high-resolution GCM (GFDL HIRAM) with horizontal resolution of about 50 km. While it remains challenging for GCMs to faithfully represent these two ISV modes including their amplitude, evolution patterns, and periodicities, encouraging simulations are also noted. In general, SPCAM and HIRAM exhibit relatively superior skill in representing the two ISV modes over the EPAC. While the advantage of SPCAM is achieved through explicit representation of the cumulus process by the embedded 2-D cloud resolving models, the improved representation in HIRAM could be ascribed to the employment of a strongly entraining plume cumulus scheme, which inhibits the deep convection, and thus effectively enhances the stratiform rainfall. The sensitivity tests based on HIRAM also suggest that fine horizontal resolution could also be conducive to realistically capture the ISV over the EPAC, particularly for the QBM mode

  8. Comparison of SVAT models for simulating and optimizing deficit irrigation systems in arid and semi-arid countries under climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloss, Sebastian; Schuetze, Niels; Schmitz, Gerd H.

    2010-05-01

    The strong competition for fresh water in order to fulfill the increased demand for food worldwide has led to a renewed interest in techniques to improve water use efficiency (WUE) such as controlled deficit irrigation. Furthermore, as the implementation of crop models into complex decision support systems becomes more and more common, it is imperative to reliably predict the WUE as ratio of water consumption and yield. The objective of this paper is the assessment of the problems the crop models - such as FAO-33, DAISY, and APSIM in this study - face when maximizing the WUE. We applied these crop models for calculating the risk in yield reduction in view of different sources of uncertainty (e.g. climate) employing a stochastic framework for decision support for the planning of water supply in irrigation. The stochastic framework consists of: (i) a weather generator for simulating regional impacts of climate change; (ii) a new tailor-made evolutionary optimization algorithm for optimal irrigation scheduling with limited water supply; and (iii) the above mentioned models for simulating water transport and crop growth in a sound manner. The results present stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF) for different crops which can be used as basic tools for assessing the impact of climate variability on the risk for the potential yield. Case studies from India, Oman, Malawi, and France are presented to assess the differences in modeling water stress and yield response for the different crop models.

  9. Effect of Variable Manning Coefficients on Tsunami Inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barberopoulou, A.; Rees, D.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical simulations are commonly used to help estimate tsunami hazard, improve evacuation plans, issue or cancel tsunami warnings, inform forecasting and hazard assessments and have therefore become an integral part of hazard mitigation among the tsunami community. Many numerical codes exist for simulating tsunamis, most of which have undergone extensive benchmarking and testing. Tsunami hazard or risk assessments employ these codes following a deterministic or probabilistic approach. Depending on the scope these studies may or may not consider uncertainty in the numerical simulations, the effects of tides, variable friction or estimate financial losses, none of which are necessarily trivial. Distributed manning coefficients, the roughness coefficients used in hydraulic modeling, are commonly used in simulating both riverine and pluvial flood events however, their use in tsunami hazard assessments is primarily part of limited scope studies and for the most part, not a standard practice. For this work, we investigate variations in manning coefficients and their effects on tsunami inundation extent, pattern and financial loss. To assign manning coefficients we use land use maps that come from the New Zealand Land Cover Database (LCDB) and more recent data from the Ministry of the Environment. More than 40 classes covering different types of land use are combined into major classes such as cropland, grassland and wetland representing common types of land use in New Zealand, each of which is assigned a unique manning coefficient. By utilizing different data sources for variable manning coefficients, we examine the impact of data sources and classification methodology on the accuracy of model outputs.

  10. Genotypic variability enhances the reproducibility of an ecological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milcu, Alexandru; Puga-Freitas, Ruben; Ellison, Aaron M; Blouin, Manuel; Scheu, Stefan; Freschet, Grégoire T; Rose, Laura; Barot, Sebastien; Cesarz, Simone; Eisenhauer, Nico; Girin, Thomas; Assandri, Davide; Bonkowski, Michael; Buchmann, Nina; Butenschoen, Olaf; Devidal, Sebastien; Gleixner, Gerd; Gessler, Arthur; Gigon, Agnès; Greiner, Anna; Grignani, Carlo; Hansart, Amandine; Kayler, Zachary; Lange, Markus; Lata, Jean-Christophe; Le Galliard, Jean-François; Lukac, Martin; Mannerheim, Neringa; Müller, Marina E H; Pando, Anne; Rotter, Paula; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Seyhun, Rahme; Urban-Mead, Katherine; Weigelt, Alexandra; Zavattaro, Laura; Roy, Jacques

    2018-02-01

    Many scientific disciplines are currently experiencing a 'reproducibility crisis' because numerous scientific findings cannot be repeated consistently. A novel but controversial hypothesis postulates that stringent levels of environmental and biotic standardization in experimental studies reduce reproducibility by amplifying the impacts of laboratory-specific environmental factors not accounted for in study designs. A corollary to this hypothesis is that a deliberate introduction of controlled systematic variability (CSV) in experimental designs may lead to increased reproducibility. To test this hypothesis, we had 14 European laboratories run a simple microcosm experiment using grass (Brachypodium distachyon L.) monocultures and grass and legume (Medicago truncatula Gaertn.) mixtures. Each laboratory introduced environmental and genotypic CSV within and among replicated microcosms established in either growth chambers (with stringent control of environmental conditions) or glasshouses (with more variable environmental conditions). The introduction of genotypic CSV led to 18% lower among-laboratory variability in growth chambers, indicating increased reproducibility, but had no significant effect in glasshouses where reproducibility was generally lower. Environmental CSV had little effect on reproducibility. Although there are multiple causes for the 'reproducibility crisis', deliberately including genetic variability may be a simple solution for increasing the reproducibility of ecological studies performed under stringently controlled environmental conditions.

  11. Simulation and qualitative analysis of glucose variability, mean glucose, and hypoglycemia after subcutaneous insulin therapy for stress hyperglycemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strilka, Richard J; Stull, Mamie C; Clemens, Michael S; McCaver, Stewart C; Armen, Scott B

    2016-01-27

    The critically ill can have persistent dysglycemia during the "subacute" recovery phase of their illness because of altered gene expression; it is also not uncommon for these patients to receive continuous enteral nutrition during this time. The optimal short-acting subcutaneous insulin therapy that should be used in this clinical scenario, however, is unknown. Our aim was to conduct a qualitative numerical study of the glucose-insulin dynamics within this patient population to answer the above question. This analysis may help clinicians design a relevant clinical trial. Eight virtual patients with stress hyperglycemia were simulated by means of a mathematical model. Each virtual patient had a different combination of insulin resistance and insulin deficiency that defined their unique stress hyperglycemia state; the rate of gluconeogenesis was also doubled. The patients received 25 injections of subcutaneous regular or Lispro insulin (0-6 U) with 3 rates of continuous nutrition. The main outcome measurements were the change in mean glucose concentration, the change in glucose variability, and hypoglycemic episodes. These end points were interpreted by how the ultradian oscillations of glucose concentration were affected by each insulin preparation. Subcutaneous regular insulin lowered both mean glucose concentrations and glucose variability in a linear fashion. No hypoglycemic episodes were noted. Although subcutaneous Lispro insulin lowered mean glucose concentrations, glucose variability increased in a nonlinear fashion. In patients with high insulin resistance and nutrition at goal, "rebound hyperglycemia" was noted after the insulin analog was rapidly metabolized. When the nutritional source was removed, hypoglycemia tended to occur at higher Lispro insulin doses. Finally, patients with severe insulin resistance seemed the most sensitive to insulin concentration changes. Subcutaneous regular insulin consistently lowered mean glucose concentrations and glucose

  12. Preliminary simulation study of doppler reflectometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishii, Yuta; Hojo, Hitoshi; Yoshikawa, Masashi; Ichimura, Makoto; Haraguchi, Yusuke; Imai, Tsuyoshi; Mase, Atsushi

    2010-01-01

    A preliminary simulation study of Doppler reflectometry is performed. The simulations solve Maxwell's equations by a finite difference time domain (FDTD) code method in two dimensions. A moving corrugated metal target is used as a plasma cutoff layer to study the basic features of Doppler reflectometry. We examined the effects of the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the electromagnetic waves and the corrugation depth of the metal target. Furthermore, the effect of a nonuniform plasma is studied using this FDTD analysis. The Doppler shift and velocity are compared with those obtained from FDTD analysis of a uniform plasma. (author)

  13. Purposeful selection of variables in logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williams David Keith

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The main problem in many model-building situations is to choose from a large set of covariates those that should be included in the "best" model. A decision to keep a variable in the model might be based on the clinical or statistical significance. There are several variable selection algorithms in existence. Those methods are mechanical and as such carry some limitations. Hosmer and Lemeshow describe a purposeful selection of covariates within which an analyst makes a variable selection decision at each step of the modeling process. Methods In this paper we introduce an algorithm which automates that process. We conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of this algorithm with three well documented variable selection procedures in SAS PROC LOGISTIC: FORWARD, BACKWARD, and STEPWISE. Results We show that the advantage of this approach is when the analyst is interested in risk factor modeling and not just prediction. In addition to significant covariates, this variable selection procedure has the capability of retaining important confounding variables, resulting potentially in a slightly richer model. Application of the macro is further illustrated with the Hosmer and Lemeshow Worchester Heart Attack Study (WHAS data. Conclusion If an analyst is in need of an algorithm that will help guide the retention of significant covariates as well as confounding ones they should consider this macro as an alternative tool.

  14. Simulation of the lateral pole-impact on a crash simulation system; Simulation des seitlichen Pfahlaufpralls auf einer Katapultanlage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoegner, C.; Gajewski, M.; Zippel, I. [ACTS GmbH und Co. KG, Sailauf (Germany)

    2001-07-01

    The test set-up for the simulation of a lateral pole impact has the following characteristics: - Simulation of pole impact procedures Euro-NCAP and others - Very realistic reproduction of the deformation performance of side panels (with simulated or original part assemblies) - Consideration of the dynamic displacement of the cant rail - Seat displacement and deformation - Realistic depiction of the vehicle displacement (i.e. car-to-pole) - Test velocity: up to 50 km/h - Intrusion: up to 550 mm (more also possible on demand) - Pole diameter 254 mm (variable). This test system design results in variable set-up possibilities: - Test-set up possible from very simple (on the basis of simulation data without real parts) to very complex (use of side panels and interior door trim) - Support of different protection systems (window bag and side bag) - A maximum of two occupants feasible (set up weight max. 300 kg) - Optimal camera perspectives, stationary or onboard - Front as well as rear side impact simulation possible - Front-rear interaction of protection systems feasible (two dummies). A test system has been realised with which the complex process in a lateral pole impact can be simulated with excellent approximation and with relatively simple means. Due to the avoidance of point validation this methodology can be ideally implemented for development tests. (orig.)

  15. The Effect of a Variable Disc Pad Friction Coefficient for the Mechanical Brake System of a Railway Vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Nam-Jin; Kang, Chul-Goo

    2015-01-01

    A brake hardware-in-the-loop simulation (HILS) system for a railway vehicle is widely applied to estimate and validate braking performance in research studies and field tests. When we develop a simulation model for a full vehicle system, the characteristics of all components are generally properly simplified based on the understanding of each component’s purpose and interaction with other components. The friction coefficient between the brake disc and the pad used in simulations has been conventionally considered constant, and the effect of a variable friction coefficient is ignored with the assumption that the variability affects the performance of the vehicle braking very little. However, the friction coefficient of a disc pad changes significantly within a range due to environmental conditions, and thus, the friction coefficient can affect the performance of the brakes considerably, especially on the wheel slide. In this paper, we apply a variable friction coefficient and analyzed the effects of the variable friction coefficient on a mechanical brake system of a railway vehicle. We introduce a mathematical formula for the variable friction coefficient in which the variable friction is represented by two variables and five parameters. The proposed formula is applied to real-time simulations using a brake HILS system, and the effectiveness of the formula is verified experimentally by testing the mechanical braking performance of the brake HILS system. PMID:26267883

  16. The Effect of a Variable Disc Pad Friction Coefficient for the Mechanical Brake System of a Railway Vehicle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Nam-Jin; Kang, Chul-Goo

    2015-01-01

    A brake hardware-in-the-loop simulation (HILS) system for a railway vehicle is widely applied to estimate and validate braking performance in research studies and field tests. When we develop a simulation model for a full vehicle system, the characteristics of all components are generally properly simplified based on the understanding of each component's purpose and interaction with other components. The friction coefficient between the brake disc and the pad used in simulations has been conventionally considered constant, and the effect of a variable friction coefficient is ignored with the assumption that the variability affects the performance of the vehicle braking very little. However, the friction coefficient of a disc pad changes significantly within a range due to environmental conditions, and thus, the friction coefficient can affect the performance of the brakes considerably, especially on the wheel slide. In this paper, we apply a variable friction coefficient and analyzed the effects of the variable friction coefficient on a mechanical brake system of a railway vehicle. We introduce a mathematical formula for the variable friction coefficient in which the variable friction is represented by two variables and five parameters. The proposed formula is applied to real-time simulations using a brake HILS system, and the effectiveness of the formula is verified experimentally by testing the mechanical braking performance of the brake HILS system.

  17. Variable mass energy transformation and storage (VMETS) system using NH3-H2O as working fluid. Part 2: Modeling and simulation under partial storage strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, S.M.; Zhang, L.; Liang, J.; Du, R.

    2007-01-01

    This paper is the second part of our study on a new variable mass energy transformation and storage (VMETS) system using NH 3 -H 2 O as working fluid. In the previous study, the working principle and flow of the new system have been introduced, whilst the dynamic models of the new system have been developed and the simulation under the full storage strategy has been done. Therefore, in this paper, the working process and dynamic models of the system operating under the partial storage strategy are briefly re-described first, and then, the dynamic processes of energy transformation and storage for cooling are numerically simulated under this strategy. The simulation and analysis results reveal the relationship between the working parameters and the system operation time and predict the system behavior under various loading conditions. It is found that when the system stores energy for cooling under the partial storage strategy, the average COP c1 and COP c2 can reach 3.90 and 3.64, respectively. In order to achieve better system performance, an improved VMETS system is proposed in this paper for partial storage operation. Finally, a conclusion is drawn for these series of research on the new VMETS system

  18. Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G - II. El Nino Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, Seung-Ki; Hense, Andreas [Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Legutke, Stephanie [Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Kwon, Won-Tae [Meteorological Research Inst., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-08-01

    A 1000-yr control simulation (CTL) performed with the atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHO-G is analysed with regard to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the two major natural climatic variabilities, in comparison with observations and other model simulations. The ENSO-related sea surface temperature climate and its seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific and a single Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern tropical Pacific are simulated reasonably, and the ENSO phase-locking to the annual cycle and the subsurface ocean behaviour related to equatorial wave dynamics are also reproduced well. The simulated amplitude of the ENSO signal is however too large and its occurrence is too regular and frequent. Also, the observed westward propagation of zonal wind stress over the equatorial Pacific is not captured by the model. Nevertheless, the ENSO-related teleconnection patterns of near-surface temperature (T2m), precipitation (PCP) and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are reproduced realistically. The NAO index, defined as the MSLP difference between Gibraltar and Iceland, has a 'white' noise spectrum similar to that of the detrended index obtained from observed data. The correlation and regression patterns of T2m, PCP and MSLP with the NAO index are also successfully simulated. However, the model overestimates the warming over the North Pacific in the high index phase of the NAO, a feature it shares with other coupled models. This might be associated with an enhanced Atlantic/Pacific teleconnection, which is hardly seen in the observations. A detection analysis of the NAO index shows that the observed recent 4060 yr trend cannot be explained by the model's internal variability while the recent 2030 yr trend occurs with a more than 1% chance in ECHO-G CTL.

  19. VARIABILITY FROM NON-AXISYMMETRIC FLUCTUATIONS INTERACTING WITH STANDING SHOCKS IN TILTED BLACK HOLE ACCRETION DISKS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henisey, Ken B. [Natural Science Division, Pepperdine University, Malibu, CA 90263 (United States); Blaes, Omer M. [Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Fragile, P. Chris [Department of Physics and Astronomy, College of Charleston, Charleston, SC 29424 (United States)

    2012-12-10

    We study the spatial and temporal behavior of fluid in fully three-dimensional, general relativistic, magnetohydrodynamical simulations of both tilted and untilted black hole accretion flows. We uncover characteristically greater variability in tilted simulations at frequencies similar to those predicted by the formalism of trapped modes, but ultimately conclude that its spatial structure is inconsistent with a modal interpretation. We find instead that previously identified, transient, overdense clumps orbiting on roughly Keplerian trajectories appear generically in our global simulations, independent of tilt. Associated with these fluctuations are acoustic spiral waves interior to the orbits of the clumps. We show that the two non-axisymmetric standing shock structures that exist in the inner regions of these tilted flows effectively amplify the variability caused by these spiral waves to markedly higher levels than in untilted flows, which lack standing shocks. Our identification of clumps, spirals, and spiral-shock interactions in these fully general relativistic, magnetohydrodynamical simulations suggests that these features may be important dynamical elements in models that incorporate tilt as a way to explain the observed variability in black hole accretion flows.

  20. Sparse Reduced-Rank Regression for Simultaneous Dimension Reduction and Variable Selection

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Lisha

    2012-12-01

    The reduced-rank regression is an effective method in predicting multiple response variables from the same set of predictor variables. It reduces the number of model parameters and takes advantage of interrelations between the response variables and hence improves predictive accuracy. We propose to select relevant variables for reduced-rank regression by using a sparsity-inducing penalty. We apply a group-lasso type penalty that treats each row of the matrix of the regression coefficients as a group and show that this penalty satisfies certain desirable invariance properties. We develop two numerical algorithms to solve the penalized regression problem and establish the asymptotic consistency of the proposed method. In particular, the manifold structure of the reduced-rank regression coefficient matrix is considered and studied in our theoretical analysis. In our simulation study and real data analysis, the new method is compared with several existing variable selection methods for multivariate regression and exhibits competitive performance in prediction and variable selection. © 2012 American Statistical Association.

  1. Mixed convection heat transfer simulation in a rectangular channel with a variable speed rotational cylinder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Md Imran; Billah, Md. Mamun; Rahman, Mohammed Mizanur; Hasan, Mohammad Nasim

    2017-12-01

    Numerical simulation of steady two-dimensional heat transfer in a rectangular channel with a centered variable speed cylinder has been performed in this paper. In this setup, an isoflux heater is placed at the bottom wall of the channel while the upper wall is kept isothermal with a low temperature. The cylinder's peripheral speed to maximum inlet fluid velocity ratio (ξ) is varied from 0.5 to 1.5 for both clockwise and anticlockwise rotational cases. Air has been considered as working fluid while other system parameters such as Grashof and Reynolds numbers are varied. The effects of rotational speed, Grashof and Reynolds numbers on the streamline pattern, isothermal lines, local and average Nusselt number are analyzed and presented. It is observed the cylinder's rotational direction and speed has a significant effect on the flow pattern, temperature distribution as well as heat transfer characteristics.

  2. [Mother-newborn relational risk - Study of prevalence and associated variables].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Maribel; Poo, Ana María; Baeza, Bernardita; Bustos, M Luis

    2015-01-01

    Clinical evidence reveals the importance of mother-newborn bonding experience for health promoting and maintenance of human life. If the newborn lacks care and affection, she/he may develop an attachment disorder. A predictive scale regarding the risk of mothernewborn relationships is available, which makes possible an early intervention to prevent the development of relational disorders. The aim of this study is to apply the Kimelman measurement scale to determine the relational risk in mother-newborn pairs, as well as the prevalence and the associated biopsychosocial variables. A cross-sectional study with a probabilistic sample of 333 mother-infant pairs in postpartum maternity at Temuco hospital. The Kimelman mother-newborn attachment assessment guide was used. Biopsychosocial variables were obtained from the mothers studied. The association of biopsychosocial variables with relational risk was analyzed using OR and confidence intervals of 95%. The prevalence of high relational risk was 43.8%. The associated biopsychosocial variables included, women with no steady partner, single parent, teenage mothers, unwanted and unplanned pregnancy. Almost half of the mothers were in the high risk group. Early identification of relational risk and its related variables could help in the intervention in this vulnerable group. Copyright © 2015. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

  3. Simulation of hot-channel transients for PHWR reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masriera, N.A.

    1988-01-01

    For the simulation of transients a whole-plant code is needed. These codes model the core in a very simplified way. When local variables have to be calculated a different kind of code is needed: a subchannel-code. This report studies the use of the cobra code as a subchannel-code, for the simulation of a PHWR fuel channel, considering that this code was developed for PWR cores calculation. A special effort is made to obtain optimized models for different calculations: steady state, soft transients and severe transients. These models differ in number of subchannels, axial nodes, and the choice of the most important variables. (Author) [es

  4. A Bézier-Spline-based Model for the Simulation of Hysteresis in Variably Saturated Soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremer, Clemens; Peche, Aaron; Thiele, Luisa-Bianca; Graf, Thomas; Neuweiler, Insa

    2017-04-01

    Most transient variably saturated flow models neglect hysteresis in the p_c-S-relationship (Beven, 2012). Such models tend to inadequately represent matrix potential and saturation distribution. Thereby, when simulating flow and transport processes, fluid and solute fluxes might be overestimated (Russo et al., 1989). In this study, we present a simple, computationally efficient and easily applicable model that enables to adequately describe hysteresis in the p_c-S-relationship for variably saturated flow. This model can be seen as an extension to the existing play-type model (Beliaev and Hassanizadeh, 2001), where scanning curves are simplified as vertical lines between main imbibition and main drainage curve. In our model, we use continuous linear and Bézier-Spline-based functions. We show the successful validation of the model by numerically reproducing a physical experiment by Gillham, Klute and Heermann (1976) describing primary drainage and imbibition in a vertical soil column. With a deviation of 3%, the simple Bézier-Spline-based model performs significantly better that the play-type approach, which deviates by 30% from the experimental results. Finally, we discuss the realization of physical experiments in order to extend the model to secondary scanning curves and in order to determine scanning curve steepness. {Literature} Beven, K.J. (2012). Rainfall-Runoff-Modelling: The Primer. John Wiley and Sons. Russo, D., Jury, W. A., & Butters, G. L. (1989). Numerical analysis of solute transport during transient irrigation: 1. The effect of hysteresis and profile heterogeneity. Water Resources Research, 25(10), 2109-2118. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR025i010p02109. Beliaev, A.Y. & Hassanizadeh, S.M. (2001). A Theoretical Model of Hysteresis and Dynamic Effects in the Capillary Relation for Two-phase Flow in Porous Media. Transport in Porous Media 43: 487. doi:10.1023/A:1010736108256. Gillham, R., Klute, A., & Heermann, D. (1976). Hydraulic properties of a porous

  5. A simulation study on Bayesian Ridge regression models for several collinearity levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efendi, Achmad; Effrihan

    2017-12-01

    When analyzing data with multiple regression model if there are collinearities, then one or several predictor variables are usually omitted from the model. However, there sometimes some reasons, for instance medical or economic reasons, the predictors are all important and should be included in the model. Ridge regression model is not uncommon in some researches to use to cope with collinearity. Through this modeling, weights for predictor variables are used for estimating parameters. The next estimation process could follow the concept of likelihood. Furthermore, for the estimation nowadays the Bayesian version could be an alternative. This estimation method does not match likelihood one in terms of popularity due to some difficulties; computation and so forth. Nevertheless, with the growing improvement of computational methodology recently, this caveat should not at the moment become a problem. This paper discusses about simulation process for evaluating the characteristic of Bayesian Ridge regression parameter estimates. There are several simulation settings based on variety of collinearity levels and sample sizes. The results show that Bayesian method gives better performance for relatively small sample sizes, and for other settings the method does perform relatively similar to the likelihood method.

  6. Modeling variability in porescale multiphase flow experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Bowen; Bao, Jie; Oostrom, Mart; Battiato, Ilenia; Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.

    2017-07-01

    Microfluidic devices and porescale numerical models are commonly used to study multiphase flow in biological, geological, and engineered porous materials. In this work, we perform a set of drainage and imbibition experiments in six identical microfluidic cells to study the reproducibility of multiphase flow experiments. We observe significant variations in the experimental results, which are smaller during the drainage stage and larger during the imbibition stage. We demonstrate that these variations are due to sub-porescale geometry differences in microcells (because of manufacturing defects) and variations in the boundary condition (i.e., fluctuations in the injection rate inherent to syringe pumps). Computational simulations are conducted using commercial software STAR-CCM+, both with constant and randomly varying injection rates. Stochastic simulations are able to capture variability in the experiments associated with the varying pump injection rate.

  7. Impact of climate variability on tropospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grewe, Volker

    2007-01-01

    A simulation with the climate-chemistry model (CCM) E39/C is presented, which covers both the troposphere and stratosphere dynamics and chemistry during the period 1960 to 1999. Although the CCM, by its nature, is not exactly representing observed day-by-day meteorology, there is an overall model's tendency to correctly reproduce the variability pattern due to an inclusion of realistic external forcings, like observed sea surface temperatures (e.g. El Nino), major volcanic eruption, solar cycle, concentrations of greenhouse gases, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Additionally, climate-chemistry interactions are included, like the impact of ozone, methane, and other species on radiation and dynamics, and the impact of dynamics on emissions (lightning). However, a number of important feedbacks are not yet included (e.g. feedbacks related to biogenic emissions and emissions due to biomass burning). The results show a good representation of the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer, including the ozone hole, which plays an important role for the simulation of natural variability of tropospheric ozone. Anthropogenic NO x emissions are included with a step-wise linear trend for each sector, but no interannual variability is included. The application of a number of diagnostics (e.g. marked ozone tracers) allows the separation of the impact of various processes/emissions on tropospheric ozone and shows that the simulated Northern Hemisphere tropospheric ozone budget is not only dominated by nitrogen oxide emissions and other ozone pre-cursors, but also by changes of the stratospheric ozone budget and its flux into the troposphere, which tends to reduce the simulated positive trend in tropospheric ozone due to emissions from industry and traffic during the late 80s and early 90s. For tropical regions the variability in ozone is dominated by variability in lightning (related to ENSO) and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (related to Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric

  8. Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seftigen, Kristina; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, Francois; Chen, Deliang

    2017-12-01

    The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as unique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In this study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced transient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from the CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction data are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that produce droughts-pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical similarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated multi-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated high-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy record. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase coherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal timescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm periods and vice versa. The CMIP5-PMIP3 archive suggests, however, out-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium. The lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and moisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for attribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings stress the need for further paleoclimate data-model intercomparison efforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate variability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models, and to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks.

  9. Design study and performance analysis of a high-speed multistage variable-geometry fan for a variable cycle engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, T. J.; Parker, D. E.

    1979-01-01

    A design technology study was performed to identify a high speed, multistage, variable geometry fan configuration capable of achieving wide flow modulation with near optimum efficiency at the important operating condition. A parametric screening study of the front and rear block fans was conducted in which the influence of major fan design features on weight and efficiency was determined. Key design parameters were varied systematically to determine the fan configuration most suited for a double bypass, variable cycle engine. Two and three stage fans were considered for the front block. A single stage, core driven fan was studied for the rear block. Variable geometry concepts were evaluated to provide near optimum off design performance. A detailed aerodynamic design and a preliminary mechanical design were carried out for the selected fan configuration. Performance predictions were made for the front and rear block fans.

  10. A prospective study to determine the need for physical simulation following virtual simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valicenti, R.K.; Waterman, F.M.; Corn, B.W.; Sweet, J.; Curran, W.J.

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: Virtual simulation is CT based planning utilizing computed digitally reconstructed radiographs (DRRs) in a manner similar to conventional fluoroscopic simulation. However, conventional or physical simulation is still widely used to assure precise implementation of the devised plan. To evaluate the need for performing physical simulation, we prospectively studied patients undergoing virtual simulation who either had or did not have a subsequent physical simulation. Materials and Methods: From July, 1995 to February, 1996, 48 patients underwent conformal 4-field radiation therapy for prostate cancer using a commercial grade spiral CT simulator. All patients were immobilized in a foam body cast and positioned by using a fiducial laser marking system. Following prostate and seminal vesicle definition on a slice-by-slice basis, virtual simulation was performed. The isocenter defined by this process was marked on both the patient and the immobilization device before leaving the CT simulator room. The isocenter position of the devised plan was evaluated by three verification methods: physical simulation, first day treatment port filming, and port filming immediately following physical simulation. Simulator radiographs and port films were compared against DRRs for x, y, and z deviations of the isocenter. These deviations were used as a measure of the implementation precision achieved by each verification method. Results: Thirty-seven patients underwent physical simulation and first day port filming. Eleven had first day treatment verification films only and never had a physical simulation. A total of 79 simulator radiographs and 126 first day treatment port films were reviewed. The tabulation of all deviations is as follows: There was significantly more setup error (≥ 5 mm) observed when the devised treatment was implemented in the treatment room as opposed to the physical simulator. The physical simulator did not lead to a significant reduction in setup error

  11. Simulation as an educational tool in acute nursing care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Mona

    2017-01-01

    satisfying. The purpose of the study was to investigate if theory based lessons in combination with simulation-based lectures (FAM Camp) were superior to theory based lessons alone on above mentioned variables. Method: This was a controlled intervention study among nursing students at University College...... lessons. Conclusion: Different skills are required to practice as an acute nurse. Believe in own abilities is one of them (self-efficacy) and this skill was trained best in simulation-based lessons in an authentic setting. Contrary, it is uncertain whether simulation training improves fundamental...

  12. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fatichi, S.; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-01-01

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  13. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  14. Simulation modeling on the growth of firm's safety management capability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Tie-zhong; LI Zhi-xiang

    2008-01-01

    Aiming to the deficiency of safety management measure, established simulation model about firm's safety management capability(FSMC) based on organizational learning theory. The system dynamics(SD) method was used, in which level and rate system, variable equation and system structure flow diagram was concluded. Simulation model was verified from two aspects: first, model's sensitivity to variable was tested from the gross of safety investment and the proportion of safety investment; second, variables dependency was checked up from the correlative variable of FSMC and organizational learning. The feasibility of simulation model is verified though these processes.

  15. Using climate response functions in analyzing electricity production variables. A case study from Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tøfte, Lena S.; Martino, Sara; Mo, Birger

    2016-04-01

    This study analyses whether and to which extent today's hydropower system and reservoirs in Mid-Norway are able to balance new intermittent energy sources in the region, in both today's and tomorrow's climate. We also investigate if the electricity marked model EMPS gives us reasonable results also when run in a multi simulation mode without recalibration. Climate related energy (CRE) is influenced by the weather, the system for energy production and transport, and by market mechanisms. In the region of Mid-Norway, nearly all power demand is generated by hydro-electric facilities. Due to energy deficiency and limitations in the power grid the region experiences a deficit of electricity. The region is likely to experience considerable investments in wind power and small-scale hydropower and the transmission grid within and out of the region will probably be extended, so this situation might change. In addition climate change scenarios for the region agree on higher temperatures, more precipitation in total and a larger portion of the precipitation coming as rain instead of snow, as well as we expect slightly higher wind speed and more storms during the winter. Changing temperatures will also change the electricity demand. EMPS is a tool for forecasting and planning in electricity markets, developed for optimization and simulation of hydrothermal power systems with a considerable share of hydro power. It takes into account transport constraints and hydrological differences between major areas or regional subsystems. During optimization the objective is to minimize the expected cost in the whole system subject to all constraints. Incremental water values (marginal costs for hydropower) are computed for each area using stochastic dynamic programming. A heuristic approach is used to treat the interaction between areas. In the simulation part of the model total system costs are minimized week by week for each climate scenario in a linear problem formulation. A detailed

  16. Study of a variable mass Atwood's machine using a smartphone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Dany; Caprile, Isidora; Corvacho, Fernando; Reyes, Orfa

    2018-03-01

    The Atwood machine was invented in 1784 by George Atwood and this system has been widely studied both theoretically and experimentally over the years. Nowadays, it is commonplace that many experimental physics courses include both Atwood's machine and variable mass to introduce more complex concepts in physics. To study the dynamics of the masses that compose the variable Atwood's machine, laboratories typically use a smart pulley. Now, the first work that introduced a smartphone as data acquisition equipment to study the acceleration in the Atwood's machine was the one by M. Monteiro et al. Since then, there has been no further information available on the usage of smartphones in variable mass systems. This prompted us to do a study of this kind of system by means of data obtained with a smartphone and to show the practicality of using smartphones in complex experimental situations.

  17. Variable displacement alpha-type Stirling engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homutescu, V. M.; Bălănescu, D. T.; Panaite, C. E.; Atanasiu, M. V.

    2016-08-01

    The basic design and construction of an alpha-type Stirling engine with on load variable displacement is presented. The variable displacement is obtained through a planar quadrilateral linkage with one on load movable ground link. The physico-mathematical model used for analyzing the variable displacement alpha-type Stirling engine behavior is an isothermal model that takes into account the real movement of the pistons. Performances and power adjustment capabilities of such alpha-type Stirling engine are calculated and analyzed. An exemplification through the use of the numerical simulation was performed in this regard.

  18. Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model with long-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, A. F. M.; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony S.; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

    2017-12-01

    The primary objective of this study is to develop a stochastic rainfall generation model that can match not only the short resolution (daily) variability but also the longer resolution (monthly to multiyear) variability of observed rainfall. This study has developed a Markov chain (MC) model, which uses a two-state MC process with two parameters (wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry transition probabilities) to simulate rainfall occurrence and a gamma distribution with two parameters (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. Starting with the traditional MC-gamma model with deterministic parameters, this study has developed and assessed four other variants of the MC-gamma model with different parameterisations. The key finding is that if the parameters of the gamma distribution are randomly sampled each year from fitted distributions rather than fixed parameters with time, the variability of rainfall depths at both short and longer temporal resolutions can be preserved, while the variability of wet periods (i.e. number of wet days and mean length of wet spell) can be preserved by decadally varied MC parameters. This is a straightforward enhancement to the traditional simplest MC model and is both objective and parsimonious.

  19. Inverse Ising problem in continuous time: A latent variable approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Christian; Opper, Manfred

    2017-12-01

    We consider the inverse Ising problem: the inference of network couplings from observed spin trajectories for a model with continuous time Glauber dynamics. By introducing two sets of auxiliary latent random variables we render the likelihood into a form which allows for simple iterative inference algorithms with analytical updates. The variables are (1) Poisson variables to linearize an exponential term which is typical for point process likelihoods and (2) Pólya-Gamma variables, which make the likelihood quadratic in the coupling parameters. Using the augmented likelihood, we derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood estimate of network parameters. Using a third set of latent variables we extend the EM algorithm to sparse couplings via L1 regularization. Finally, we develop an efficient approximate Bayesian inference algorithm using a variational approach. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on data simulated from an Ising model. For data which are simulated from a more biologically plausible network with spiking neurons, we show that the Ising model captures well the low order statistics of the data and how the Ising couplings are related to the underlying synaptic structure of the simulated network.

  20. Study on the CFD simulation of refrigerated container

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arif Budiyanto, Muhammad; Shinoda, Takeshi; Nasruddin

    2017-10-01

    The objective this study is to performed Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulation of refrigerated container in the container port. Refrigerated container is a thermal cargo container constructed from an insulation wall to carry kind of perishable goods. CFD simulation was carried out use cross sectional of container walls to predict surface temperatures of refrigerated container and to estimate its cooling load. The simulation model is based on the solution of the partial differential equations governing the fluid flow and heat transfer processes. The physical model of heat-transfer processes considered in this simulation are consist of solar radiation from the sun, heat conduction on the container walls, heat convection on the container surfaces and thermal radiation among the solid surfaces. The validation of simulation model was assessed uses surface temperatures at center points on each container walls obtained from the measurement experimentation in the previous study. The results shows the surface temperatures of simulation model has good agreement with the measurement data on all container walls.

  1. Drought variability in six catchments in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok-Pan, Chun; Onof, Christian; Wheater, Howard

    2010-05-01

    Drought is fundamentally related to consistent low precipitation levels. Changes in global and regional drought patterns are suggested by numerous recent climate change studies. However, most of the climate change adaptation measures are at a catchment scale, and the development of a framework for studying persistence in precipitation is still at an early stage. Two stochastic approaches for modelling drought severity index (DSI) are proposed to investigate possible changes in droughts in six catchments in the UK. They are the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the generalised linear model (GLM) approach. Results of ARIMA modelling show that mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are important climate variables for short term drought forecasts, whereas relative humidity is not a significant climate variable despite its high correlation with the DSI series. By simulating rainfall series, the generalised linear model (GLM) approach can provide the probability density function of the DSI. GLM simulations indicate that the changes in the 10th and 50th quantiles of drought events are more noticeable than in the 90th extreme droughts. The possibility of extending the GLM approach to support risk-based water management is also discussed.

  2. A Study on Guide Sign Validity in Driving Simulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhonghua

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The role of guide sign to inform road user about the information of network is important. How to design and locate guide sign to increase traffic operation efficiency is a key point for traffic engineers. Driving simulator is useful devised to study guide sign in the process and system control. For the purpose of studying guide signs using the tool of driving simulator, guide sign's validity in driving simulator was studied. Results of this experiment are the foundation of further study on guide sign. Simulator calibration procedure for guide sign was set up in this study. Legibility distance as measure of performance was used to evaluate the validity of guide sign in driving simulator. Thirty two participants were recruited. Results indicated legibility distance and speed were inversely related with the method of data mining. Legibility distance and text height of guide sign were positive related. When speed is 20km/h, 30km/h, 40km/h, magnifying power of text height is 4.3, 4.1, 3.8, while guide signs are absolute validity in driving simulator.

  3. Numerical Simulation Analysis of Five-Step Variable-Diameter Pipe with Solid-Liquid Two-Phase Abrasive Flow Polishing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Junye; Zhang, Hengfu; Wu, Guiling; Hu, Jinglei; Liu, Yang; Sun, Zhihui

    2018-01-01

    In many areas of precision machining abrasive flow polishing technology has an important role. In order to study the influence of abrasive flow on the polishing effect of variable diameter parts, the fifth step variable diameter tube was taken as the research object to analyze the dynamic pressure and turbulent kinetic energy distribution of inlet velocity on the fifth-order variable diameter tube influences. Through comparative analysis, the abrasive flow polished variable diameter pipe parts have very effective and significant polishing effect and the higher the inlet speed, the more significant the polishing effect.

  4. A simulation of the economic and environmental impact of variable rate nitrogen application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Søren Marcus; Pedersen, Jørgen Lindgaard

    2003-01-01

    on the field. However, findings from this also indicate that changing climatic conditions have a significant impact on yield response from variable nitrogen application. The study also establishes that site-specific N-application seems to have a positive but also small impact on nitrate leaching in cereals....

  5. Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

    2017-03-01

    The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the

  6. Power calculator for instrumental variable analysis in pharmacoepidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Venexia M; Davies, Neil M; Windmeijer, Frank; Burgess, Stephen; Martin, Richard M

    2017-10-01

    Instrumental variable analysis, for example with physicians' prescribing preferences as an instrument for medications issued in primary care, is an increasingly popular method in the field of pharmacoepidemiology. Existing power calculators for studies using instrumental variable analysis, such as Mendelian randomization power calculators, do not allow for the structure of research questions in this field. This is because the analysis in pharmacoepidemiology will typically have stronger instruments and detect larger causal effects than in other fields. Consequently, there is a need for dedicated power calculators for pharmacoepidemiological research. The formula for calculating the power of a study using instrumental variable analysis in the context of pharmacoepidemiology is derived before being validated by a simulation study. The formula is applicable for studies using a single binary instrument to analyse the causal effect of a binary exposure on a continuous outcome. An online calculator, as well as packages in both R and Stata, are provided for the implementation of the formula by others. The statistical power of instrumental variable analysis in pharmacoepidemiological studies to detect a clinically meaningful treatment effect is an important consideration. Research questions in this field have distinct structures that must be accounted for when calculating power. The formula presented differs from existing instrumental variable power formulae due to its parametrization, which is designed specifically for ease of use by pharmacoepidemiologists. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

  7. Improved sample size determination for attributes and variables sampling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stirpe, D.; Picard, R.R.

    1985-01-01

    Earlier INMM papers have addressed the attributes/variables problem and, under conservative/limiting approximations, have reported analytical solutions for the attributes and variables sample sizes. Through computer simulation of this problem, we have calculated attributes and variables sample sizes as a function of falsification, measurement uncertainties, and required detection probability without using approximations. Using realistic assumptions for uncertainty parameters of measurement, the simulation results support the conclusions: (1) previously used conservative approximations can be expensive because they lead to larger sample sizes than needed; and (2) the optimal verification strategy, as well as the falsification strategy, are highly dependent on the underlying uncertainty parameters of the measurement instruments. 1 ref., 3 figs

  8. The role of updraft velocity in temporal variability of cloud hydrometeor number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Sylvia; Nenes, Athanasios; Lee, Dong Min; Oreopoulos, Lazaros

    2016-04-01

    Significant effort has been dedicated to incorporating direct aerosol-cloud links, through parameterization of liquid droplet activation and ice crystal nucleation, within climate models. This significant accomplishment has generated the need for understanding which parameters affecting hydrometer formation drives its variability in coupled climate simulations, as it provides the basis for optimal parameter estimation as well as robust comparison with data, and other models. Sensitivity analysis alone does not address this issue, given that the importance of each parameter for hydrometer formation depends on its variance and sensitivity. To address the above issue, we develop and use a series of attribution metrics defined with adjoint sensitivities to attribute the temporal variability in droplet and crystal number to important aerosol and dynamical parameters. This attribution analysis is done both for the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1. Within the GEOS simulation, up to 48% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number and 61% in droplet number can be attributed to input updraft velocity fluctuations, while for the CAM simulation, they explain as much as 89% of the ice crystal number variability. This above results suggest that vertical velocity in both model frameworks is seen to be a very important (or dominant) driver of hydrometer variability. Yet, observations of vertical velocity are seldomly available (or used) to evaluate the vertical velocities in simulations; this strikingly contrasts the amount and quality of data available for aerosol-related parameters. Consequentially, there is a strong need for retrievals or measurements of vertical velocity for addressing this important knowledge gap that requires a significant investment and effort by the atmospheric community. The attribution metrics as a

  9. Chaotic behaviour of a pendulum with variable length

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartuccelli, M; Christiansen, P L; Muto, V; Soerensen, M P; Pedersen, N F

    1987-08-01

    The Melnikov function for the prediction of Smale horseshoe chaos is applied to a driven damped pendulum with variable length. Depending on the parameters, it is shown that this dynamical system undertakes heteroclinic bifurcations which are the source of the unstable chaotic motion. The analytical results are illustrated by new numerical simulations. Furthermore, using the averaging theorem, the stability of the subharmonics is studied.

  10. Simulation studies for the evaluation of health information technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ammenwerth, Elske; Hackl, Werner; Binzer, Kristine

    2012-01-01

    It is essential for new health information technologies (IT) to undergo rigorous evaluations to ensure they are effective and safe for use in real-world situations. However, evaluation of new health IT is challenging, as field studies are often not feasible when the technology being evaluated...... is not sufficiently mature. Laboratory-based evaluations have also been shown to have insufficient external validity. Simulation studies seem to be a way to bridge this gap. The aim of this study was to evaluate, using a simulation methodology, the impact of a new prototype of an electronic medication management...... system on the appropriateness of prescriptions and drugrelated activities, including laboratory test ordering or medication changes. This article presents the results of a controlled simulation study with 50 simulation runs, including ten doctors and five simulation patients, and discusses experiences...

  11. Bayesian approach to errors-in-variables in regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozliman, Nur Aainaa; Ibrahim, Adriana Irawati Nur; Yunus, Rossita Mohammad

    2017-05-01

    In many applications and experiments, data sets are often contaminated with error or mismeasured covariates. When at least one of the covariates in a model is measured with error, Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model can be used. Measurement error, when not corrected, would cause misleading statistical inferences and analysis. Therefore, our goal is to examine the relationship of the outcome variable and the unobserved exposure variable given the observed mismeasured surrogate by applying the Bayesian formulation to the EIV model. We shall extend the flexible parametric method proposed by Hossain and Gustafson (2009) to another nonlinear regression model which is the Poisson regression model. We shall then illustrate the application of this approach via a simulation study using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods.

  12. Variable selection and estimation for longitudinal survey data

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Li

    2014-09-01

    There is wide interest in studying longitudinal surveys where sample subjects are observed successively over time. Longitudinal surveys have been used in many areas today, for example, in the health and social sciences, to explore relationships or to identify significant variables in regression settings. This paper develops a general strategy for the model selection problem in longitudinal sample surveys. A survey weighted penalized estimating equation approach is proposed to select significant variables and estimate the coefficients simultaneously. The proposed estimators are design consistent and perform as well as the oracle procedure when the correct submodel was known. The estimating function bootstrap is applied to obtain the standard errors of the estimated parameters with good accuracy. A fast and efficient variable selection algorithm is developed to identify significant variables for complex longitudinal survey data. Simulated examples are illustrated to show the usefulness of the proposed methodology under various model settings and sampling designs. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  13. Maglev Facility for Simulating Variable Gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuanming; Strayer, Donald M.; Israelsson, Ulf E.

    2010-01-01

    An improved magnetic levitation apparatus ("Maglev Facility") has been built for use in experiments in which there are requirements to impose variable gravity (including zero gravity) in order to assess the effects of gravity or the absence thereof on physical and physiological processes. The apparatus is expected to be especially useful for experiments on the effects of gravity on convection, boiling, and heat transfer in fluids and for experiments on mice to gain understanding of bone loss induced in human astronauts by prolonged exposure to reduced gravity in space flight. The maglev principle employed by the apparatus is well established. Diamagnetic cryogenic fluids such as liquid helium have been magnetically levitated for studying their phase transitions and critical behaviors. Biological entities consist mostly of diamagnetic molecules (e.g., water molecules) and thus can be levitated by use of sufficiently strong magnetic fields having sufficiently strong vertical gradients. The heart of the present maglev apparatus is a vertically oriented superconducting solenoid electromagnet (see figure) that generates a static magnetic field of about 16 T with a vertical gradient sufficient for levitation of water in normal Earth gravity. The electromagnet is enclosed in a Dewar flask having a volume of 100 L that contains liquid helium to maintain superconductivity. The Dewar flask features a 66-mm-diameter warm bore, lying within the bore of the magnet, wherein experiments can be performed at room temperature. The warm bore is accessible from its top and bottom ends. The superconducting electromagnet is run in the persistent mode, in which the supercurrent and the magnetic field can be maintained for weeks with little decay, making this apparatus extremely cost and energy efficient to operate. In addition to water, this apparatus can levitate several common fluids: liquid hydrogen, liquid oxygen, methane, ammonia, sodium, and lithium, all of which are useful

  14. Auxiliary variables in multiple imputation in regression with missing X: a warning against including too many in small sample research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hardt Jochen

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple imputation is becoming increasingly popular. Theoretical considerations as well as simulation studies have shown that the inclusion of auxiliary variables is generally of benefit. Methods A simulation study of a linear regression with a response Y and two predictors X1 and X2 was performed on data with n = 50, 100 and 200 using complete cases or multiple imputation with 0, 10, 20, 40 and 80 auxiliary variables. Mechanisms of missingness were either 100% MCAR or 50% MAR + 50% MCAR. Auxiliary variables had low (r=.10 vs. moderate correlations (r=.50 with X’s and Y. Results The inclusion of auxiliary variables can improve a multiple imputation model. However, inclusion of too many variables leads to downward bias of regression coefficients and decreases precision. When the correlations are low, inclusion of auxiliary variables is not useful. Conclusion More research on auxiliary variables in multiple imputation should be performed. A preliminary rule of thumb could be that the ratio of variables to cases with complete data should not go below 1 : 3.

  15. Study of Ozone Layer Variability near St. Petersburg on the Basis of SBUV Satellite Measurements and Numerical Simulation (2000-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virolainen, Y. A.; Timofeyev, Y. M.; Smyshlyaev, S. P.; Motsakov, M. A.; Kirner, O.

    2017-12-01

    A comparison between the numerical simulation results of ozone fields with different experimental data makes it possible to estimate the quality of models for their further use in reliable forecasts of ozone layer evolution. We analyze time series of satellite (SBUV) measurements of the total ozone column (TOC) and the ozone partial columns in two atmospheric layers (0-25 and 25-60 km) and compare them with the results of numerical simulation in the chemistry transport model (CTM) for the low and middle atmosphere and the chemistry climate model EMAC. The daily and monthly average ozone values, short-term periods of ozone depletion, and long-term trends of ozone columns are considered; all data sets relate to St. Petersburg and the period between 2000 and 2014. The statistical parameters (means, standard deviations, variations, medians, asymmetry parameter, etc.) of the ozone time series are quite similar for all datasets. However, the EMAC model systematically underestimates the ozone columns in all layers considered. The corresponding differences between satellite measurements and EMAC numerical simulations are (5 ± 5)% and (7 ± 7)% and (1 ± 4)% for the ozone column in the 0-25 and 25-60 km layers, respectively. The correspondent differences between SBUV measurements and CTM results amount to (0 ± 7)%, (1 ± 9)%, and (-2 ± 8)%. Both models describe the sudden episodes of the ozone minimum well, but the EMAC accuracy is much higher than that of the CTM, which often underestimates the ozone minima. Assessments of the long-term linear trends show that they are close to zero for all datasets for the period under study.

  16. Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal variability in NCEP CFSv2 and its role on systematic bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Bidyut B.; Deshpande, Medha; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Saha, Subodh K.; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Murthugudde, Raghu; Goswami, B. N.

    2014-11-01

    We have evaluated the simulation of Indian summer monsoon and its intraseasonal oscillations in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2). The dry bias over the Indian landmass in the mean monsoon rainfall is one of the major concerns. In spite of this dry bias, CFSv2 shows a reasonable northward propagation of convection at intraseasonal (30-60 day) time scale. In order to document and understand this dry bias over the Indian landmass in CFSv2 simulations, a two pronged investigation is carried out on the two major facets of Indian summer monsoon: one, the air-sea interactions and two, the large scale vertical heating structure in the model. Our analysis shows a possible bias in the co-evolution of convection and sea surface temperature in CFSv2 over the equatorial Indian Ocean. It is also found that the simulated large scale vertical heat source (Q1) and moisture sink (Q2) over the Indian region are biased relative to observational estimates. Finally, this study provides a possible explanation for the dry precipitation bias over the Indian landmass in the simulated mean monsoon on the basis of the biases associated with the simulated ocean-atmospheric processes and the vertical heating structure. This study also throws some light on the puzzle of CFSv2 exhibiting a reasonable northward propagation at the intraseasonal time scale (30-60 day) despite a drier monsoon over the Indian land mass.

  17. Improved operating strategies for uranium extraction: a stochastic simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broekman, B.R.

    1986-01-01

    Deterministic and stochastic simulations of a Western Transvaal uranium process are used in this research report to determine more profitable uranium plant operating strategies and to gauge the potential financial benefits of automatic process control. The deterministic simulation model was formulated using empirical and phenomenological process models. The model indicated that profitability increases significantly as the uranium leaching strategy becomes harsher. The stochastic simulation models use process variable distributions corresponding to manually and automatically controlled conditions to investigate the economic gains that may be obtained if a change is made from manual to automatic control of two important process variables. These lognormally distributed variables are the pachuca 1 sulphuric acid concentration and the ferric to ferrous ratio. The stochastic simulations show that automatic process control is justifiable in certain cases. Where the leaching strategy is relatively harsh, such as that in operation during January 1986, it is not possible to justify an automatic control system. Automatic control is, however, justifiable if a relatively mild leaching strategy is adopted. The stochastic and deterministic simulations represent two different approaches to uranium process modelling. This study has indicated the necessity for each approach to be applied in the correct context. It is contended that incorrect conclusions may have been drawn by other investigators in South Africa who failed to consider the two approaches separately

  18. Synchronous Parallel Emulation and Discrete Event Simulation System with Self-Contained Simulation Objects and Active Event Objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinman, Jeffrey S. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The present invention is embodied in a method of performing object-oriented simulation and a system having inter-connected processor nodes operating in parallel to simulate mutual interactions of a set of discrete simulation objects distributed among the nodes as a sequence of discrete events changing state variables of respective simulation objects so as to generate new event-defining messages addressed to respective ones of the nodes. The object-oriented simulation is performed at each one of the nodes by assigning passive self-contained simulation objects to each one of the nodes, responding to messages received at one node by generating corresponding active event objects having user-defined inherent capabilities and individual time stamps and corresponding to respective events affecting one of the passive self-contained simulation objects of the one node, restricting the respective passive self-contained simulation objects to only providing and receiving information from die respective active event objects, requesting information and changing variables within a passive self-contained simulation object by the active event object, and producing corresponding messages specifying events resulting therefrom by the active event objects.

  19. Assessing human variability in kinetics for exposures to multiple environmental chemicals: a physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling case study with dichloromethane, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and m-xylene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valcke, Mathieu; Haddad, Sami

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study was to compare the magnitude of interindividual variability in internal dose for inhalation exposure to single versus multiple chemicals. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic models for adults (AD), neonates (NEO), toddlers (TODD), and pregnant women (PW) were used to simulate inhalation exposure to "low" (RfC-like) or "high" (AEGL-like) air concentrations of benzene (Bz) or dichloromethane (DCM), along with various levels of toluene alone or toluene with ethylbenzene and xylene. Monte Carlo simulations were performed and distributions of relevant internal dose metrics of either Bz or DCM were computed. Area under the blood concentration of parent compound versus time curve (AUC)-based variability in AD, TODD, and PW rose for Bz when concomitant "low" exposure to mixtures of increasing complexities occurred (coefficient of variation (CV) = 16-24%, vs. 12-15% for Bz alone), but remained unchanged considering DCM. Conversely, AUC-based CV in NEO fell (15 to 5% for Bz; 12 to 6% for DCM). Comparable trends were observed considering production of metabolites (AMET), except for NEO's CYP2E1-mediated metabolites of Bz, where an increased CV was observed (20 to 71%). For "high" exposure scenarios, Cmax-based variability of Bz and DCM remained unchanged in AD and PW, but decreased in NEO (CV= 11-16% to 2-6%) and TODD (CV= 12-13% to 7-9%). Conversely, AMET-based variability for both substrates rose in every subpopulation. This study analyzed for the first time the impact of multiple exposures on interindividual variability in toxicokinetics. Evidence indicates that this impact depends upon chemical concentrations and biochemical properties, as well as the subpopulation and internal dose metrics considered.

  20. Sludge Batch Variability Study With Frit 418

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, F.; Edwards, T.

    2010-01-01

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) initiated processing Sludge Batch 6 (SB6) in the summer of 2010. In support of processing, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) provided a recommendation to utilize Frit 418 to process SB6. This recommendation was based on assessments of the compositional projections for SB6 available at the time from the Liquid Waste Organization (LWO) and SRNL (using a model-based approach). To support qualification of SB6, SRNL executed a variability study to assess the applicability of the current durability models for SB6. The durability models were assessed over the expected Frit 418-SB6 composition range. Seventeen glasses were selected for the variability study based on the sludge projections used in the frit recommendation. Five of the glasses are based on the centroid of the compositional region, spanning a waste loading (WL) range of 32 to 40%. The remaining twelve glasses are extreme vertices (EVs) of the sludge region of interest for SB6 combined with Frit 418 and are all at 36% WL. These glasses were fabricated and characterized using chemical composition analysis, X-ray diffraction (XRD) and the Product Consistency Test (PCT). After initiating the SB6 variability study, the measured composition of the SB6 Tank 51 qualification glass produced at the SRNL Shielded Cells Facility indicated that thorium was present in the glass at an appreciable concentration (1.03 wt%), which made it a reportable element for SB6. This concentration of ThO 2 resulted in a second phase of experimental studies. Five glasses were formulated that were based on the centroid of the new sludge compositional region combined with Frit 418, spanning a WL range of 32 to 40%. These glasses were fabricated and characterized using chemical composition analysis and the PCT. Based on the measured PCT response, all of the glasses (with and without thorium) were acceptable with respect to the Environmental Assessment (EA) reference glass regardless of

  1. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013

  2. Improvement of the variable storage coefficient method with water surface gradient as a variable

    Science.gov (United States)

    The variable storage coefficient (VSC) method has been used for streamflow routing in continuous hydrological simulation models such as the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for more than 30 years. APEX operates on a daily time step and ...

  3. SimTCM: A human patient simulator with application to diagnostic accuracy studies of Chinese medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Arthur de Sá; Pacheco, Antonio Guilherme

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this work is to develop and implement the SimTCM, an advanced computational model that incorporates relevant aspects from traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) theory as well as advanced statistical and epidemiological techniques for simulation and analysis of human patients. SimTCM presents five major attributes for simulation: representation of true and false profiles for any single pattern; variable count of manifestations for each manifestation profile; empirical distributions of patterns and manifestations in a disease-specific population; incorporation of uncertainty in clinical data; and the combination of the four examinations. The proposed model is strengthened by following international standards for reporting diagnostic accuracy studies, and incorporates these standards in its treatment of study population, sample size calculation, data collection of manifestation profiles, exclusion criteria and missing data handling, reference standards, randomization and blinding, and test reproducibility. Simulations using data from patients diagnosed with hypertension and post-stroke sensory-motor impairments yielded no significant differences between expected and simulated frequencies of patterns (P=0.22 or higher). Time for convergence of simulations varied from 9.90 s (9.80, 10.27) to 28.31 s (26.33, 29.52). The ratio iteration profile necessary for convergence varied between 1:1 and 5:1. This model is directly connected to forthcoming models in a large project to design and implement the SuiteTCM: ProntTCM, SciTCM, DiagTCM, StudentTCM, ResearchTCM, HerbsTCM, AcuTCM, and DataTCM. It is expected that the continuity of the SuiteTCM project enhances the evidence-based practice of Chinese medicine. The software is freely available for download at: http://suitetcm.unisuam.edu.br.

  4. Evaluation of the Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Electrical Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisimov, Sergey V.; Galichenko, Sergey V.; Aphinogenov, Konstantin V.; Prokhorchuk, Aleksandr A.

    2017-12-01

    Due to the chaotic motion of charged particles carried by turbulent eddies, electrical quantities in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) have short-term variability superimposed on long-term variability caused by sources from regional to global scales. In this study the influence of radon exhalation rate, aerosol distribution and turbulent transport efficiency on the variability of fair-weather atmospheric electricity is investigated via Lagrangian stochastic modelling. For the mid-latitude lower atmosphere undisturbed by precipitation, electrified clouds, or thunderstorms, the model is capable of reproducing the diurnal variation in atmospheric electrical parameters detected by ground-based measurements. Based on the analysis of field observations and numerical simulation it is found that the development of the convective boundary layer, accompanied by an increase in turbulent kinetic energy, forms the vertical distribution of radon and its decaying short-lived daughters to be approximately coincident with the barometric law for several eddy turnover times. In the daytime ABL the vertical distribution of atmospheric electrical conductivity tends to be uniform except within the surface layer, due to convective mixing of radon and its radioactive decay products. At the same time, a decrease in the conductivity near the ground is usually observed. This effect leads to an enhanced ground-level atmospheric electric field compared to that normally observed in the nocturnal stably-stratified boundary layer. The simulation showed that the variability of atmospheric electric field in the ABL associated with internal origins is significant in comparison to the variability related to changes in global parameters. It is suggested that vertical profiles of electrical quantities can serve as informative parameters on ABL turbulent dynamics and can even more broadly characterize the state of the environment.

  5. Climate Variability In The Euro-atlantic Sector As Simulated By Echam4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menezes, I.; Corte-Real, J.; Ramos, A.; Conde, F.

    The atmosphere is a fundamental component of the climate system and its influence in local and global climates results from its composition, structure and motion. The best available tools to simulate future climates are coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 (T42 L19)[1] being a very relevant exam- ple of such a model due to its elaborated parametrizations of physical processes. The purpose of this work is twofold : (1) to assess the ability of ECHAM4 in reproducing the reference climate of 1961-1990, over the Euro-Atlantic sector (29N-71N; 67W- 59E) in terms of mean sea level pressure, surface temperature and total precipitation; (2) to evaluate the expected changes of the same climate elements in a warmer world. To attain the first goal the ECHAMSs control run output is compared with observed data obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU data set)[2-5]; to achieve the second objective, the modelSs control run is compared with its transient run forced by greenhouse gases. In both cases, comparisons are made in terms of mean values, variability in space and time and extremes. References [1] E. Roeckner, K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, M. Christoph, M. Claussen, L. Dümenil, M. Esch, M. Giorgetta, U. Schlese, and U. Schulzweida, 1996: The atmospheric gen- eral circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Report No. 218, Hamburg, Germany, 90 pp. [2] M. Hulme, D. Conway, P.D. Jones, T. Jiang, E.M. Barrow, and C. Turney (1995), Construction of a 1961-90 European climatology for climate change impacts and mod- elling applications, Int. J. Climatol., 15, 1333-1363. [3] M. Hulme (1994), The cost of climate data U a European experience, Weather, 49, 168-175. [4] M. Hulme, and M.G. New (1997), Dependence of large-scale precipitation clima- tologies on temporal and spatial sampling, J. Climate, 10, 1099-1113. 1 [5] C.J. Willmot, S.M. Robeson and M.J. Janis (1996

  6. Evaluation of feedforward and feedback contributions to hand stiffness and variability in multijoint arm control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xin; Du, Yu-Fan; Lan, Ning

    2013-07-01

    The purpose of this study is to validate a neuromechanical model of the virtual arm (VA) by comparing emerging behaviors of the model to those of experimental observations. Hand stiffness of the VA model was obtained by either theoretical computation or simulated perturbations. Variability in hand position of the VA was generated by adding signal dependent noise (SDN) to the motoneuron pools of muscles. Reflex circuits of Ia, Ib and Renshaw cells were included to regulate the motoneuron pool outputs. Evaluation of hand stiffness and variability was conducted in simulations with and without afferent feedback under different patterns of muscle activations during postural maintenance. The simulated hand stiffness and variability ellipses captured the experimentally observed features in shape, magnitude and orientation. Steady state afferent feedback contributed significantly to the increase in hand stiffness by 35.75±16.99% in area, 18.37±7.80% and 16.15±7.15% in major and minor axes; and to the reduction of hand variability by 49.41±21.19% in area, 36.89±12.78% and 18.87±23.32% in major and minor axes. The VA model reproduced the neuromechanical behaviors that were consistent with experimental data, and it could be a useful tool for study of neural control of posture and movement, as well as for application to rehabilitation.

  7. Small variable speed hermetic reciprocating compressors for domestic refrigerators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Bjarne D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper contains both a theoretical and experimental investigation of some of the fundamental characteristics of a smal variable speed hermetic reciprocating compressor intended for application in domestic refrigeration. The results of a previously published simulation model for variable speed...

  8. An Undergraduate Research Experience on Studying Variable Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaral, A.; Percy, J. R.

    2016-06-01

    We describe and evaluate a summer undergraduate research project and experience by one of us (AA), under the supervision of the other (JP). The aim of the project was to sample current approaches to analyzing variable star data, and topics related to the study of Mira variable stars and their astrophysical importance. This project was done through the Summer Undergraduate Research Program (SURP) in astronomy at the University of Toronto. SURP allowed undergraduate students to explore and learn about many topics within astronomy and astrophysics, from instrumentation to cosmology. SURP introduced students to key skills which are essential for students hoping to pursue graduate studies in any scientific field. Variable stars proved to be an excellent topic for a research project. For beginners to independent research, it introduces key concepts in research such as critical thinking and problem solving, while illuminating previously learned topics in stellar physics. The focus of this summer project was to compare observations with structural and evolutionary models, including modelling the random walk behavior exhibited in the (O-C) diagrams of most Mira stars. We found that the random walk could be modelled by using random fluctuations of the period. This explanation agreed well with observations.

  9. Simulation study of the high intensity S-Band photoinjector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Xiongwei; Nakajima, Kazuhisa [High Energy Accelerator Research Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2001-10-01

    In this paper, we report the results of simulation study of the high intensity S-Band photoinjector. The aim of the simulation study is to transport high bunch charge with low emittance evolution. The simulation result shows that 7nC bunch with rms emittance 22.3 {pi} mm mrad can be outputted at the exit of photoinjector. (author)

  10. Simulation study of the high intensity S-Band photoinjector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Xiongwei; Nakajima, Kazuhisa

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we report the results of simulation study of the high intensity S-Band photoinjector. The aim of the simulation study is to transport high bunch charge with low emittance evolution. The simulation result shows that 7nC bunch with rms emittance 22.3 π mm mrad can be outputted at the exit of photoinjector. (author)

  11. Effects of model resolution and parameterizations on the simulations of clouds, precipitation, and their interactions with aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seoung Soo; Li, Zhanqing; Zhang, Yuwei; Yoo, Hyelim; Kim, Seungbum; Kim, Byung-Gon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Mok, Jungbin; Um, Junshik; Ock Choi, Kyoung; Dong, Danhong

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the roles played by model resolution and microphysics parameterizations in the well-known uncertainties or errors in simulations of clouds, precipitation, and their interactions with aerosols by the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. For this investigation, we used cloud-system-resolving model (CSRM) simulations as benchmark simulations that adopt high-resolution and full-fledged microphysical processes. These simulations were evaluated against observations, and this evaluation demonstrated that the CSRM simulations can function as benchmark simulations. Comparisons between the CSRM simulations and the simulations at the coarse resolutions that are generally adopted by current NWP models indicate that the use of coarse resolutions as in the NWP models can lower not only updrafts and other cloud variables (e.g., cloud mass, condensation, deposition, and evaporation) but also their sensitivity to increasing aerosol concentration. The parameterization of the saturation process plays an important role in the sensitivity of cloud variables to aerosol concentrations. while the parameterization of the sedimentation process has a substantial impact on how cloud variables are distributed vertically. The variation in cloud variables with resolution is much greater than what happens with varying microphysics parameterizations, which suggests that the uncertainties in the NWP simulations are associated with resolution much more than microphysics parameterizations.

  12. A novel technology for control of variable speed pumped storage power plant

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Seyed Mohammad Hassan Hosseini; Mohammad Reza Semsar

    2016-01-01

    Variable speed pumped storage machines are used extensively in wind power plant and pumped storage power plant. This paper presents direct torque and flux control (DTFC) of a variable speed pumped storage power plant (VSPSP). By this method both torque and flux have been applied to control the VSPSP. The comparison between VSPSP’s control strategies is studied. At the first, a wind turbine with the capacity 2.2 kW and DTFC control strategies simulated then a 250 MW VSPSP is simulated with all of its parts (including electrical, mechanical, hydraulic and its control system) by MATLAB software. In all of simulations, both converters including two-level voltage source converter (2LVSC) and three-level voltage source converter (3LVSC) are applied. The results of applying 2LVSC and 3LVSC are the rapid dynamic responses with better efficiency, reducing the total harmonic distortion (THD) and ripple of rotor torque and flux.

  13. High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine

  14. An AO-assisted Variability Study of Four Globular Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, R.; Contreras Ramos, R.; Strader, J.; Hakala, P.; Catelan, M.; Peacock, M. B.; Simunovic, M.

    2016-09-01

    The image-subtraction technique applied to study variable stars in globular clusters represented a leap in the number of new detections, with the drawback that many of these new light curves could not be transformed to magnitudes due to severe crowding. In this paper, we present observations of four Galactic globular clusters, M 2 (NGC 7089), M 10 (NGC 6254), M 80 (NGC 6093), and NGC 1261, taken with the ground-layer adaptive optics module at the SOAR Telescope, SAM. We show that the higher image quality provided by SAM allows for the calibration of the light curves of the great majority of the variables near the cores of these clusters as well as the detection of new variables, even in clusters where image-subtraction searches were already conducted. We report the discovery of 15 new variables in M 2 (12 RR Lyrae stars and 3 SX Phe stars), 12 new variables in M 10 (11 SX Phe and 1 long-period variable), and 1 new W UMa-type variable in NGC 1261. No new detections are found in M 80, but previous uncertain detections are confirmed and the corresponding light curves are calibrated into magnitudes. Additionally, based on the number of detected variables and new Hubble Space Telescope/UVIS photometry, we revisit a previous suggestion that M 80 may be the globular cluster with the richest population of blue stragglers in our Galaxy. Based on observations obtained at the Southern Astrophysical Research (SOAR) telescope, which is a joint project of the Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, e Inovação (MCTI) da República Federativa do Brasil, the U.S. National Optical Astronomy Observatory (NOAO), the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), and Michigan State University (MSU).

  15. Evaluating variability with atomistic simulations: the effect of potential and calculation methodology on the modeling of lattice and elastic constants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, Lucas M.; Trautt, Zachary T.; Becker, Chandler A.

    2018-07-01

    Atomistic simulations using classical interatomic potentials are powerful investigative tools linking atomic structures to dynamic properties and behaviors. It is well known that different interatomic potentials produce different results, thus making it necessary to characterize potentials based on how they predict basic properties. Doing so makes it possible to compare existing interatomic models in order to select those best suited for specific use cases, and to identify any limitations of the models that may lead to unrealistic responses. While the methods for obtaining many of these properties are often thought of as simple calculations, there are many underlying aspects that can lead to variability in the reported property values. For instance, multiple methods may exist for computing the same property and values may be sensitive to certain simulation parameters. Here, we introduce a new high-throughput computational framework that encodes various simulation methodologies as Python calculation scripts. Three distinct methods for evaluating the lattice and elastic constants of bulk crystal structures are implemented and used to evaluate the properties across 120 interatomic potentials, 18 crystal prototypes, and all possible combinations of unique lattice site and elemental model pairings. Analysis of the results reveals which potentials and crystal prototypes are sensitive to the calculation methods and parameters, and it assists with the verification of potentials, methods, and molecular dynamics software. The results, calculation scripts, and computational infrastructure are self-contained and openly available to support researchers in performing meaningful simulations.

  16. A study on the thermal expansion characteristics of simulated spent fuel and simulated DUPIC fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Kweon Ho; Ryu, H. J.; Kim, H. S.; Song, K. C.; Yang, M. S.

    2001-10-01

    Thermal expansions of simulated spent PWR fuel and simulated DUPIC fuel were studied using a dilatometer in the temperature range from 298 to 1900 K. The densities of simulated spent PWR fuel and simulated DUPIC fuel used in the measurement were 10.28 g/cm3 (95.35 % of TD) and 10.26 g/cm3 (95.14 % of TD), respectively. Their linear thermal expansions of simulated fuels are higher than that of UO2, and the difference between these fuels and UO2 increases progressively as temperature increases. However, the difference between simulated spent PWR fuel and simulated DUPIC fuel can hardly be observed. For the temperature range from 298 to 1900 K, the values of the average linear thermal expansion coefficients for simulated spent PWR fuel and simulated DUPIC fuel are 1.391 10-5 and 1.393 10-5 K-1, respectively. As temperature increases to 1900 K, the relative densities of simulated spent PWR fuel and simulated DUPIC fuel decrease to 93.81 and 93.76 % of initial densities at 298 K, respectively

  17. Optimization of Operations Resources via Discrete Event Simulation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, B.; Morris, D.; White, N.; Unal, R.

    1996-01-01

    The resource levels required for operation and support of reusable launch vehicles are typically defined through discrete event simulation modeling. Minimizing these resources constitutes an optimization problem involving discrete variables and simulation. Conventional approaches to solve such optimization problems involving integer valued decision variables are the pattern search and statistical methods. However, in a simulation environment that is characterized by search spaces of unknown topology and stochastic measures, these optimization approaches often prove inadequate. In this paper, we have explored the applicability of genetic algorithms to the simulation domain. Genetic algorithms provide a robust search strategy that does not require continuity and differentiability of the problem domain. The genetic algorithm successfully minimized the operation and support activities for a space vehicle, through a discrete event simulation model. The practical issues associated with simulation optimization, such as stochastic variables and constraints, were also taken into consideration.

  18. Dropout during a driving simulator study: A survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matas, Nicole A; Nettelbeck, Ted; Burns, Nicholas R

    2015-12-01

    Simulator sickness is the occurrence of motion-sickness like symptoms that can occur during use of simulators and virtual reality technologies. This study investigated individual factors that contributed to simulator sickness and dropout while using a desktop driving simulator. Eighty-eight older adult drivers (mean age 72.82±5.42years) attempted a practice drive and two test drives. Participants also completed a battery of cognitive and visual assessments, provided information on their health and driving habits, and reported their experience of simulator sickness symptoms throughout the study. Fifty-two participants dropped out before completing the driving tasks. A time-dependent Cox Proportional Hazards model showed that female gender (HR=2.02), prior motion sickness history (HR=2.22), and Mini-SSQ score (HR=1.55) were associated with dropout. There were no differences between dropouts and completers on any of the cognitive abilities tests. Older adults are a high-risk group for simulator sickness. Within this group, female gender and prior motion sickness history are related to simulator dropout. Higher reported experience of symptoms of simulator sickness increased rates of dropout. The results highlight the importance of screening and monitoring of participants in driving simulation studies. Older adults, females, and those with a prior history of motion sickness may be especially at risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  19. Open surgical simulation--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Jennifer; Khatib, Manaf; Bello, Fernando

    2013-01-01

    Surgical simulation has benefited from a surge in interest over the last decade as a result of the increasing need for a change in the traditional apprentice model of teaching surgery. However, despite the recent interest in surgical simulation as an adjunct to surgical training, most of the literature focuses on laparoscopic, endovascular, and endoscopic surgical simulation with very few studies scrutinizing open surgical simulation and its benefit to surgical trainees. The aim of this review is to summarize the current standard of available open surgical simulators and to review the literature on the benefits of open surgical simulation. Open surgical simulators currently used include live animals, cadavers, bench models, virtual reality, and software-based computer simulators. In the current literature, there are 18 different studies (including 6 randomized controlled trials and 12 cohort studies) investigating the efficacy of open surgical simulation using live animal, bench, and cadaveric models in many surgical specialties including general, cardiac, trauma, vascular, urologic, and gynecologic surgery. The current open surgical simulation studies show, in general, a significant benefit of open surgical simulation in developing the surgical skills of surgical trainees. However, these studies have their limitations including a low number of participants, variable assessment standards, and a focus on short-term results often with no follow-up assessment. The skills needed for open surgical procedures are the essential basis that a surgical trainee needs to grasp before attempting more technical procedures such as laparoscopic procedures. In this current climate of medical practice with reduced hours of surgical exposure for trainees and where the patient's safety and outcome is key, open surgical simulation is a promising adjunct to modern surgical training, filling the void between surgeons being trained in a technique and a surgeon achieving fluency in that

  20. Stochastic simulations of calcium contents in sugarcane area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gener T. Pereira

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTThe aim of this study was to quantify and to map the spatial distribution and uncertainty of soil calcium (Ca content in a sugarcane area by sequential Gaussian and simulated-annealing simulation methods. The study was conducted in the municipality of Guariba, northeast of the São Paulo state. A sampling grid with 206 points separated by a distance of 50 m was established, totaling approximately 42 ha. The calcium contents were evaluated in layer of 0-0.20 m. Techniques of geostatistical estimation, ordinary kriging and stochastic simulations were used. The technique of ordinary kriging does not reproduce satisfactorily the global statistics of the Ca contents. The use of simulation techniques allows reproducing the spatial variability pattern of Ca contents. The techniques of sequential Gaussian simulation and simulated annealing showed significant variations in the contents of Ca in the small scale.

  1. An experimental study of the response of the Galesville sandstone to simulated CAES conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erikson, R L; Stottlemyre, J A; Smith, R P

    1980-07-01

    The objective of this experimental study was to determine how the mineralogical and physical characteristics of host rock formations are affected by environmental conditions anticipated for compressed air energy storage (CAES) in porous, permeable rock. In this study, Galesville sandstone cores were reacted in autoclave pressure vessels supporting one of four environments: dry air; heated, air-water vapor; heated, nitrogen-water vapor mixtures; and heated, compressed, liquid water. The simulated CAES environments were maintained in autoclave pressure vessels by controlling the following independent variables: temperature, pressure, time, oxygen content, carbon dioxide content, nitrogen content, and liquid volume. The dependent variables studied were: apparent porosity, gas permeability, water permeability, and friability. These variables were measured at ambient temperature and pressure before and after each sandstone sample was reacted in one of the CAES environments. The experiments gave the following results: the Galesville sandstone exhibited excellent stability in dry air at all temperatures tested (50/sup 0/ to 300/sup 0/C); and significant physical alterations occurred in sandstone samples exposed to liquid water above 150/sup 0/C. Samples shielded from dripping water exhibited excellent stability to 300/sup 0/C; sandstone may be a suitable storage media for heated, humid air provided elevated temperature zones are relatively free of mobile liquid water; and observed changes in the physical properties of the rock may have been caused, in part, by the lack of confining stress on the sample. The inability to apply confining pressure is a severe limitation of autoclave experiments.

  2. A Coefficient of Association Between Categorical Variables With Partial or Tentative Ordering of Categories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siersma, Volkert; Kreiner, Svend

    2009-01-01

    Goodman and Kruskal's gamma coefficient measuring monotone association and its partial variants are useful for the analysis of multiway contingency tables containing ordinal variables. When the categories of a variable are only partly ordered and the variable is treated as a nominal variable......, information in the ordering of the categories and statistical power is lost. The authors suggest a (P)gamma measure that is the maximum of the ordinary gamma coefficients obtained by permuting the categories of nominal or partially ordered variables, while leaving the partial ordering intact. When...... of the (P)gamma coefficient are investigated in a simulation study and its use illustrated in two data sets....

  3. Scale issues in soil hydrology related to measurement and simulation: A case study in Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    State variables, such as soil water content (SWC), are typically measured or inferred at very small scales while being simulated at larger scales relevant to spatial management or hillslope areas. Thus there is an implicit spatial disparity that is often ignored. Surface runoff, on the other hand, ...

  4. Mobile Variable Depth Sampling System Design Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BOGER, R.M.

    2000-01-01

    A design study is presented for a mobile, variable depth sampling system (MVDSS) that will support the treatment and immobilization of Hanford LAW and HLW. The sampler can be deployed in a 4-inch tank riser and has a design that is based on requirements identified in the Level 2 Specification (latest revision). The waste feed sequence for the MVDSS is based on Phase 1, Case 3S6 waste feed sequence. Technical information is also presented that supports the design study

  5. Mobile Variable Depth Sampling System Design Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BOGER, R.M.

    2000-08-25

    A design study is presented for a mobile, variable depth sampling system (MVDSS) that will support the treatment and immobilization of Hanford LAW and HLW. The sampler can be deployed in a 4-inch tank riser and has a design that is based on requirements identified in the Level 2 Specification (latest revision). The waste feed sequence for the MVDSS is based on Phase 1, Case 3S6 waste feed sequence. Technical information is also presented that supports the design study.

  6. A comparative study of defibrillation and cardiopulmonary resuscitation performance during simulated cardiac arrest in nursing student teams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eikeland Husebø Sissel I

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although nurses must be able to respond quickly and effectively to cardiac arrest, numerous studies have demonstrated poor performance. Simulation is a promising learning tool for resuscitation team training but there are few studies that examine simulation for training defibrillation and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (D-CPR in teams from the nursing education perspective. The aim of this study was to investigate the extent to which nursing student teams follow the D-CPR-algorithm in a simulated cardiac arrest, and if observing a simulated cardiac arrest scenario and participating in the post simulation debriefing would improve team performance. Methods We studied video-recorded simulations of D-CPR performance in 28 nursing student teams. Besides describing the overall performance of D-CPR, we compared D-CPR performance in two groups. Group A (n = 14 performed D-CPR in a simulated cardiac arrest scenario, while Group B (n = 14 performed D-CPR after first observing performance of Group A and participating in the debriefing. We developed a D-CPR checklist to assess team performance. Results Overall there were large variations in how accurately the nursing student teams performed the specific parts of the D-CPR algorithm. While few teams performed opening the airways and examination of breathing correctly, all teams used a 30:2 compression: ventilation ratio. We found no difference between Group A and Group B in D-CPR performance, either in regard to total points on the check list or to time variables. Conclusion We found that none of the nursing student teams achieved top scores on the D-CPR-checklist. Observing the training of other teams did not increase subsequent performance. We think all this indicates that more time must be assigned for repetitive practice and reflection. Moreover, the most important aspects of D-CPR, such as early defibrillation and hands-off time in relation to shock, must be highlighted in team

  7. Study of Diurnal Cycle Variability of Planetary Boundary Layer Characteristics over the Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Weigang

    2012-07-01

    This work is aimed at investigating diurnal cycle variability of the planetary boundary layer characteristics over the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea region. To fulfill this goal the downscaling simulations are performed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We analyze planetary boundary layer height, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and surface air temperature. The model results are compared with observations in different areas, for different seasons, and for different model resolutions. The model results are analyzed in order to better quantify the diurnal cycle variability over the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea. The specific features of this region are investigated and discussed.

  8. The influence of wheelchair propulsion technique on upper extremity muscle demand: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rankin, Jeffery W; Kwarciak, Andrew M; Richter, W Mark; Neptune, Richard R

    2012-11-01

    The majority of manual wheelchair users will experience upper extremity injuries or pain, in part due to the high force requirements, repetitive motion and extreme joint postures associated with wheelchair propulsion. Recent studies have identified cadence, contact angle and peak force as important factors for reducing upper extremity demand during propulsion. However, studies often make comparisons between populations (e.g., able-bodied vs. paraplegic) or do not investigate specific measures of upper extremity demand. The purpose of this study was to use a musculoskeletal model and forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion to investigate how altering cadence, peak force and contact angle influence individual muscle demand. Forward dynamics simulations of wheelchair propulsion were generated to emulate group-averaged experimental data during four conditions: 1) self-selected propulsion technique, and while 2) minimizing cadence, 3) maximizing contact angle, and 4) minimizing peak force using biofeedback. Simulations were used to determine individual muscle mechanical power and stress as measures of muscle demand. Minimizing peak force and cadence had the lowest muscle power requirements. However, minimizing peak force increased cadence and recovery power, while minimizing cadence increased average muscle stress. Maximizing contact angle increased muscle stress and had the highest muscle power requirements. Minimizing cadence appears to have the most potential for reducing muscle demand and fatigue, which could decrease upper extremity injuries and pain. However, altering any of these variables to extreme values appears to be less effective; instead small to moderate changes may better reduce overall muscle demand. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in chemical analysis--a case study of ICP-MS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca; Epstein, Malka; Fajgelj, Ales; Ellison, Stephen L R

    2014-12-01

    Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in a chemical analysis was used for determination of distributions of the error quantification scores (scores of likelihood and severity, and scores of effectiveness of a laboratory quality system in prevention of the errors). The simulation was based on modeling of an expert behavior: confident, reasonably doubting and irresolute expert judgments were taken into account by means of different probability mass functions (pmfs). As a case study, 36 scenarios of human errors which may occur in elemental analysis of geological samples by ICP-MS were examined. Characteristics of the score distributions for three pmfs of an expert behavior were compared. Variability of the scores, as standard deviation of the simulated score values from the distribution mean, was used for assessment of the score robustness. A range of the score values, calculated directly from elicited data and simulated by a Monte Carlo method for different pmfs, was also discussed from the robustness point of view. It was shown that robustness of the scores, obtained in the case study, can be assessed as satisfactory for the quality risk management and improvement of a laboratory quality system against human errors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Can We Study Autonomous Driving Comfort in Moving-Base Driving Simulators? A Validation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellem, Hanna; Klüver, Malte; Schrauf, Michael; Schöner, Hans-Peter; Hecht, Heiko; Krems, Josef F

    2017-05-01

    To lay the basis of studying autonomous driving comfort using driving simulators, we assessed the behavioral validity of two moving-base simulator configurations by contrasting them with a test-track setting. With increasing level of automation, driving comfort becomes increasingly important. Simulators provide a safe environment to study perceived comfort in autonomous driving. To date, however, no studies were conducted in relation to comfort in autonomous driving to determine the extent to which results from simulator studies can be transferred to on-road driving conditions. Participants ( N = 72) experienced six differently parameterized lane-change and deceleration maneuvers and subsequently rated the comfort of each scenario. One group of participants experienced the maneuvers on a test-track setting, whereas two other groups experienced them in one of two moving-base simulator configurations. We could demonstrate relative and absolute validity for one of the two simulator configurations. Subsequent analyses revealed that the validity of the simulator highly depends on the parameterization of the motion system. Moving-base simulation can be a useful research tool to study driving comfort in autonomous vehicles. However, our results point at a preference for subunity scaling factors for both lateral and longitudinal motion cues, which might be explained by an underestimation of speed in virtual environments. In line with previous studies, we recommend lateral- and longitudinal-motion scaling factors of approximately 50% to 60% in order to obtain valid results for both active and passive driving tasks.

  11. Study on dynamic behavior of fusion reactor materials and their response to variable and complex irradiation environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, K.; Kohyama, A.; Namba, C.; Wiffen, F.W.; Jones, R.H.

    2001-01-01

    A Japan-USA Program of irradiation experiments for fusion research, 'JUPITER', has been established as a 6 year program from 1995 to 2000. The goal is to study the dynamic behavior of fusion reactor materials and their response to variable and complex irradiation environment using fission reactors. The irradiation experiments in this program include low activation structural materials, functional ceramics and other innovative materials. The experimental data are analyzed by theoretical modeling and computer simulation to integrate the above effects. The irradiation capsules for in-situ measurement and varying temperature were developed successfully. It was found that insulating ceramics were worked up to 3 dpa. The property changes and related issues in low activation structural materials were summarized. (author)

  12. A system for automatic evaluation of simulation software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, J. P.; Hodges, B. C.

    1976-01-01

    Within the field of computer software, simulation and verification are complementary processes. Simulation methods can be used to verify software by performing variable range analysis. More general verification procedures, such as those described in this paper, can be implicitly, viewed as attempts at modeling the end-product software. From software requirement methodology, each component of the verification system has some element of simulation to it. Conversely, general verification procedures can be used to analyze simulation software. A dynamic analyzer is described which can be used to obtain properly scaled variables for an analog simulation, which is first digitally simulated. In a similar way, it is thought that the other system components and indeed the whole system itself have the potential of being effectively used in a simulation environment.

  13. Experimental characterization of variable output refractive beamshapers using freeform elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Jason A.; Smilie, Paul J.; Dutterer, Brian S.; Davies, Matthew A.; Suleski, Thomas J.

    2014-09-01

    We present experimental results from variable output refractive beam shapers based on freeform optical surfaces. Two freeform elements in close proximity comprise a beam shaper that maps a circular Gaussian input to a circular `flat-top' output. Different lateral relative shifts between the elements result in a varying output diameter while maintaining the uniform irradiance distribution. We fabricated the beam shaping elements in PMMA using multi-axis milling on a Moore Nanotech 350FG diamond machining center and tested with a 632.8 nm Gaussian input. Initial optical testing confirmed both the predicted beam shaping and variable functionality, but with poor output uniformity. The effects of surface finish on optical performance were investigated using LightTrans VirtualLabTM to perform physical optics simulations of the milled freeform surfaces. These simulations provided an optimization path for determining machining parameters to improve the output uniformity of the beam shaping elements. A second variable beam shaper based on a super-Gaussian output was designed and fabricated using the newly determined machining parameters. Experimental test results from the second beam shaper showed outputs with significantly higher quality, but also suggest additional areas of study for further improvements in uniformity.

  14. Internal variables in thermoelasticity

    CERN Document Server

    Berezovski, Arkadi

    2017-01-01

    This book describes an effective method for modeling advanced materials like polymers, composite materials and biomaterials, which are, as a rule, inhomogeneous. The thermoelastic theory with internal variables presented here provides a general framework for predicting a material’s reaction to external loading. The basic physical principles provide the primary theoretical information, including the evolution equations of the internal variables. The cornerstones of this framework are the material representation of continuum mechanics, a weak nonlocality, a non-zero extra entropy flux, and a consecutive employment of the dissipation inequality. Examples of thermoelastic phenomena are provided, accompanied by detailed procedures demonstrating how to simulate them.

  15. Modeling and simulation of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Brumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

  16. Simulating the natural variability of the freshwater budget of the Arctic ocean from the mid to late Holocene using LOVECLIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, F. J.; Goosse, H.; Renssen, H.

    2012-04-01

    The influence of freshwater on the long term climatic variability of the Arctic region is currently of significant interest. Alterations to the natural variability of the oceanic, terrestrial and atmospheric sources of freshwater to the Arctic ocean, caused by anthropogenic induced warming, are likely to have far reaching effects on oceanic processes and climate. A number of these changes are already observable, such as an intensification of the hydrological cycle, a 7% increase in Eurasian river runoff (1936-1999), a 9% reduction of sea-ice extent per decade (1979-2006), a 120km northward migration of permafrost in Northern Canada (1968-1994), and air temperatures 6°C warmer, in parts, from 2007 to 2010, when compared to the 1958-1996 average. All of these changes add another layer of complexity to understanding the role of the freshwater budget, and this makes it difficult to say with any certainty how these future changes will impact freshwater fluxes of the Arctic gateways, such as the Bering Strait, Fram Strait, Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Barents Sea inflow. Despite these difficulties, there have been studies that have integrated the available data, from both in situ measurements and modelling studies, and used this as a basis to form a picture of the current freshwater budget, and then project upon these hypotheses for the future (Holland et al., 2007). However, one particular aspect of these future projections that is lacking is the accountability of how much future variance is attributable to both natural variability and anthropogenic influences. Here we present results of a mid to late (6-0ka) Holocene transient simulation, using the earth model of intermediate complexity, LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). The model is forced with orbital and greenhouse gas forcings appropriate for the time period. The results will highlight the natural variability of the oceanic, terrestrial and atmospheric components of the freshwater budget, over decadal and

  17. SIMULATION OF THE FERMENTATION PROCESS TO OBTAIN BIOETHANOL FROM RICE RESIDUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verónica Capdevila

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper presents a simulation model of the fermentation/separation process of bioethanol from hydrolyzed pretreated rice husk, using Aspen HYSYS simulator. Sensitivity studies performed on the developed model indicated levels for selected variables: biomass/water ratio of 1:2,89 ; biomass flow of 50 t/h and inlet temperature separator of 30°C, leading to maximize the yield of bioethanol. From these variables, a bioethanol production of 8,81 t/h with a purity of 65,51% w/w is obtained, corresponding to a flow of hydrolyzed treated biomass of 50 t/h. This work represents an advance in the development of the simulation model of the complete process to obtain second generation of bioethanol from rice husks.

  18. Quantifying the role of climate variability on extreme total water level impacts: An application of a full simulation model to Ocean Beach, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serafin, K.; Ruggiero, P.; Stockdon, H. F.; Barnard, P.; Long, J.

    2014-12-01

    Many coastal communities worldwide are vulnerable to flooding and erosion driven by extreme total water levels (TWL), potentially dangerous events produced by the combination of large waves, high tides, and high non-tidal residuals. The West coast of the United States provides an especially challenging environment to model these processes due to its complex geological setting combined with uncertain forecasts for sea level rise (SLR), changes in storminess, and possible changes in the frequency of major El Niños. Our research therefore aims to develop an appropriate methodology to assess present-day and future storm-induced coastal hazards along the entire U.S. West coast, filling this information gap. We present the application of this framework in a pilot study at Ocean Beach, California, a National Park site within the Golden Gate National Recreation Area where existing event-scale coastal change data can be used for model calibration and verification. We use a probabilistic, full simulation TWL model (TWL-FSM; Serafin and Ruggiero, in press) that captures the seasonal and interannual climatic variability in extremes using functions of regional climate indices, such as the Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), to represent atmospheric patterns related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In order to characterize the effect of climate variability on TWL components, we refine the TWL-FSM by splitting non-tidal residuals into low (monthly mean sea level anomalies) and high frequency (storm surge) components. We also develop synthetic climate indices using Markov sequences to reproduce the autocorrelated nature of ENSO behavior. With the refined TWL-FSM, we simulate each TWL component, resulting in synthetic TWL records providing robust estimates of extreme return level events (e.g., the 100-yr event) and the ability to examine the relative contribution of each TWL component to these extreme events. Extreme return levels are then used to drive storm impact models

  19. A comparison of the cardiovascular effects of simulated and spontaneous laughter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Mikaela M; Broadbent, Elizabeth A; Sollers, John J

    2018-04-01

    Laughter has long been regarded as beneficial for health, but the mechanisms are not clearly understood. The current study aimed to compare the acute cardiovascular effects of spontaneous and simulated laughter. A mixed factorial experiment was performed to examine changes in cardiovascular variables in response to experimental tasks across conditions. A sample of 72 participants were randomised to one of three 6 min interventions. Participants in the simulated laughter condition were asked to generate fake laughter, the spontaneous laughter condition viewed a humorous video, and the control condition watched a non-humorous documentary. This was followed by a laboratory stress task. Heart rate and heart rate variability (as indexed by rMSSD) were monitored continuously throughout the experiment using ECG. The simulated laughter condition had a significantly higher heart rate (p laughter task compared to the other two conditions. Follow-up hierarchical regressions indicated that the difference in heart rate was due to the fact that the simulated condition produced more laughter. The difference in rMSSD, however, was unique to the simulated condition even when controlling for the amount of laughter. The simulated laughter condition had a significantly lower mean HR during the stress task but this was not significant after controlling amount of laughter produced. Laughter leads to increased heart rate and reduced heart rate variability, which is similar to the effects of exercise. This finding is more pronounced in simulated laughter. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

  1. Galactic models with variable spiral structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, R.A.; Sellwood, J.A.

    1978-01-01

    A series of three-dimensional computer simulations of disc galaxies has been run in which the self-consistent potential of the disc stars is supplemented by that arising from a small uniform Population II sphere. The models show variable spiral structure, which is more pronounced for thin discs. In addition, the thin discs form weak bars. In one case variable spiral structure associated with this bar has been seen. The relaxed discs are cool outside resonance regions. (author)

  2. Meta-analysis of clinical studies supports the pharmacokinetic variability hypothesis for acquired drug resistance and failure of antituberculosis therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasipanodya, Jotam G; Srivastava, Shashikant; Gumbo, Tawanda

    2012-07-01

    Using hollow-fiber tuberculosis studies, we recently demonstrated that nonadherence is not a significant factor for ADR and that therapy failure only occurs after a large proportion of doses are missed. Computer-aided clinical trial simulations have suggested that isoniazid and rifampin pharmacokinetic variability best explained poor outcomes. We were interested in determining whether isoniazid pharmacokinetic variability was associated with either microbiological failure or ADR in the clinic. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed. Prospective, randomized, controlled clinical trials that reported isoniazid acetylation status and microbiological outcomes were selected. The main effects examined were microbiological sputum conversion, ADR, and relapse. Effect size was expressed as pooled risk ratios (RRs) comparing rapid with slow acetylators. Thirteen randomized studies with 1631 rapid acetylators and 1751 slow acetylators met inclusion and exclusion criteria. Rapid acetylators were more likely than slow acetylators to have microbiological failure (RR, 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-2.7), ADR (RR, 2.0; CI, 1.1-3.4), and relapse (RR, 1.3; CI, .9-2.0). Higher failure rates were encountered even in drug regimens comprising >3 antibiotics. No publication bias or small-study effects were observed for the outcomes evaluated. Pharmacokinetic variability to a single drug in the regimen is significantly associated with failure of therapy and ADR in patients. This suggests that individualized dosing for tuberculosis may be more effective than standardized dosing, which is prescribed in directly observed therapy programs.

  3. Changes in the interannual variability of the tropical Pacific as a response to an equatorial Atlantic forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Martín-Rey

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have reported that the tropical Atlantic has had an influence on tropical Pacific interannual variability since the 1970s. This variability is studied in the present work, using simulations from a coupled model in the Indo-Pacific but with observed sea surface temperature (SST prescribed over the Atlantic. The interannual variability is compared with that from a control simulation in which climatological SSTs are prescribed over the Atlantic. Differences in the Pacific mean state and in its variability are found in the forced simulation as a response to a warming in the equatorial Atlantic, characterized by a cooler background state and an increase in the variability over the tropical Pacific. A striking result is that the principal modes of tropical Pacific SST interannual variability show significant differences before and after the 1970s, providing new evidence of the Atlantic influence on the Pacific Ocean. Significant cooling (warming in the equatorial Atlantic could have caused anomalous winds in the central-easter Pacific during the summer since 1970s. The thermocline depth also seems to be altered, triggering the dynamical processes involved in the development of El Niño (La Niña phenomenon in the following winter. An increase in frequency of Niño and Niña events favouring the Central Pacific (CP ones is observed in the last three decades. Further analyses using coupled models are still necessary to help us to understand the causes of this inter-basin connection.

  4. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers.

  5. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers. 

  6. An Experimental Study on Dynamics of a Novel Dual-Belt Continuous Variable Transmission Based on a Newly Developed Test Rig

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pak Kin Wong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel dual-belt Van Doorne’s continuous variable transmission (DBVCVT system, which is applicable to heavy-duty vehicles, has been previously proposed by the authors in order to improve the low torque capacity of traditional single-belt CVT. This DBVCVT is a novel design among continuously variable transmissions and is necessary to be prototyped for experimental study, and the analytical dynamic model for this DBVCVT also needs to be experimentally validated. So, this work originally fabricated a prototype of DBVCVT and integrates this prototype to a light-load hardware-in-the-loop test rig by replacing the engine and load equipment with the AC motor and magnetic powder dynamometer. Moreover, with the use of this newly developed test rig, this work implements the experimental study of this DBVCVT for the first time. The comparison of experimental and simulation results validates the previously proposed analytical model for DBVCVT, and some basic characteristics of the DBVCVT in terms of the reliability, speed ratio, and transmission efficiency are also experimentally studied. In all, this developed test rig with the analytical model lays the foundation for further study on this novel DBVCVT.

  7. Universal extensions to simulate specifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hesselink, Wim H.

    A previous paper introduced eternity variables as an alternative to the prophecy variables of Abadi and Lamport and proved the formalism to be semantically complete: every simulation F. K -> L that preserves quiescence contains a composition of a history extension, an extension with eternity

  8. On the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics in the ECHAM3 general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, W.

    1994-01-01

    First we consider the GCM's capability to reproduce the midlatitude variability on intra-seasonal time scales by a comparison with observational data (ECMWF analyses). Secondly we assess the possible influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on the intra-seasonal variability by comparing estimates obtained from different simulations performed with ECHAM3 with varying and fixed SST as boundary forcing. The intra-seasonal variability as simulated by ECHAM3 is underestimated over most of the Northern Hemisphere. While the contributions of the high-frequency transient fluctuations are reasonably well captured by the model, ECHAM3 fails to reproduce the observed level of low-frequency intra-seasonal variability. This is mainly due to the underestimation of the variability caused by the ultra-long planetary waves in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes by the model. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, on the other hand, the intra-seasonal variability as simulated by ECHAM3 is generally underestimated in the area north of about 50 southern latitude, but overestimated at higher latitudes. This is the case for the contributions of the high-frequency and the low-frequency transient fluctuations as well. Further, the model indicates a strong tendency for zonal symmetry, in particular with respect to the high-frequency transient fluctuations. While the two sets of simulations with varying and fixed Sea Surface Temepratures as boundary forcing reveal only small regional differences in the Southern Hemisphere, there is a strong response to be found in the Northern Hemisphere. The contributions of the high-frequency transient fluctuations to the intra-seasonal variability are generally stronger in the simulations with fixed SST. Further, the Pacific storm track is shifted slightly poleward in this set of simulations. For the low-frequency intra-seasonal variability the model gives a strong, but regional response to the interannual variations of the SST. (orig.)

  9. Study of plasticity in metals by numerical simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clouet, E.

    2013-01-01

    We present a study of the plastic behaviour in metals based on the modelling of dislocation properties. Different simulation tools have been used and developed to study plasticity in structural materials, in particular metals used in the nuclear industry. In iron or zirconium alloys, plasticity is controlled at low temperature by the glide of screw dislocations. Atomistic simulations can be used to model dislocation core properties and thus to obtain a better knowledge of the mechanisms controlling dislocation glide. Such atomistic simulations need nevertheless some special care because of the long range elastic field induced by the dislocations. We have therefore developed a modelling approach relying both on atomistic simulations, using either empirical interatomic potentials or ab initio calculations, and on elasticity theory. Such an approach has been used to obtain dislocation intrinsic core properties. These simulations allowed us to describe, in iron, the variations of these core properties with the dislocation character. In zirconium, we could identity the origin of the high lattice friction and obtain a better understanding of the competition between the different glide systems. At high temperature, dislocations do not only glide but can also cross-slip or climb. This leads to a motion of the dislocations out of their glide plane which needs to be considered when modelling the plastic flow. We performed a study of dislocation climb at different scales, leading to the implementation of a dislocation climb model in dislocation dynamics simulations. (author) [fr

  10. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climatic variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruane, A C; Hudson, N I; Asseng, S

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and ......-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.......We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and we...... evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal...

  11. Investigation of the effect of tool edge geometry upon cutting variables, tool wear and burr formation using finite element simulation - A progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sartkulvanich, Partchapol; Al-Zkeri, Ibrahim; Yen Yungchang; Altan, Taylan

    2004-01-01

    This paper summarizes some of the progress made on FEM simulations of metal cutting processes conducted at the Engineering Research Center (ERC/NSM). Presented research focuses on the performance of various cutting edge geometries (hone and chamfer edges) for different tool materials and specifically on: 1) the effect of round and chamfer edge geometries on the cutting variables in machining carbon steels and 2) the effect of the edge hone size upon the flank wear and burr formation behavior in face milling of A356-T6 aluminum alloy. In the second task, an innovative design of edge preparation with varying hone size around the tool nose is also explored using FEM.In order to model three-dimensional conventional turning and face milling with two-dimensional orthogonal cutting simulations, 2D simulation cross-sections consisting of the cutting speed direction and chip flow direction are selected at different locations along the tool nose radius. Then the geometries of the hone and chamfer edges and their associated tool angles as well as uncut chip thickness are determined on these planes and employed in cutting simulations. The chip flow direction on the tool rake face are obtained by examining the wear grooves on the experimental inserts or estimated by using Oxley's approximation theory of oblique cutting. Simulation results are compared with the available experimental results (e.g. cutting forces) both qualitatively and quantitatively

  12. Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

    2018-05-01

    Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air-sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ˜ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively) are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air-sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

  13. Evaluation of energy savings potential of variable refrigerant flow (VRF from variable air volume (VAV in the U.S. climate locations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongsu Kim

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Variable refrigerant flow (VRF systems are known for their high energy performance and thus can improve energy efficiency both in residential and commercial buildings. The energy savings potential of this system has been demonstrated in several studies by comparing the system performance with conventional HVAC systems such as rooftop variable air volume systems (RTU-VAV and central chiller and boiler systems. This paper evaluates the performance of VRF and RTU-VAV systems in a simulation environment using widely-accepted whole building energy modeling software, EnergyPlus. A medium office prototype building model, developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE, is used to assess the performance of VRF and RTU-VAV systems. Each system is placed in 16 different locations, representing all U.S. climate zones, to evaluate the performance variations. Both models are compliant with the minimum energy code requirements prescribed in ASHRAE standard 90.1-2010 — energy standard for buildings except low-rise residential buildings. Finally, a comparison study between the simulation results of VRF and RTU-VAV models is made to demonstrate energy savings potential of VRF systems. The simulation results show that the VRF systems would save around 15–42% and 18–33% for HVAC site and source energy uses compared to the RTU-VAV systems. In addition, calculated results for annual HVAC cost savings point out that hot and mild climates show higher percentage cost savings for the VRF systems than cold climates mainly due to the differences in electricity and gas use for heating sources.

  14. Power maximization of variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbines using passive adaptive neural fault tolerant control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habibi, Hamed; Rahimi Nohooji, Hamed; Howard, Ian

    2017-09-01

    Power maximization has always been a practical consideration in wind turbines. The question of how to address optimal power capture, especially when the system dynamics are nonlinear and the actuators are subject to unknown faults, is significant. This paper studies the control methodology for variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbines including the effects of uncertain nonlinear dynamics, system fault uncertainties, and unknown external disturbances. The nonlinear model of the wind turbine is presented, and the problem of maximizing extracted energy is formulated by designing the optimal desired states. With the known system, a model-based nonlinear controller is designed; then, to handle uncertainties, the unknown nonlinearities of the wind turbine are estimated by utilizing radial basis function neural networks. The adaptive neural fault tolerant control is designed passively to be robust on model uncertainties, disturbances including wind speed and model noises, and completely unknown actuator faults including generator torque and pitch actuator torque. The Lyapunov direct method is employed to prove that the closed-loop system is uniformly bounded. Simulation studies are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  15. All varieties of encoding variability are not created equal: Separating variable processing from variable tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huff, Mark J.; Bodner, Glen E.

    2014-01-01

    Whether encoding variability facilitates memory is shown to depend on whether item-specific and relational processing are both performed across study blocks, and whether study items are weakly versus strongly related. Variable-processing groups studied a word list once using an item-specific task and once using a relational task. Variable-task groups’ two different study tasks recruited the same type of processing each block. Repeated-task groups performed the same study task each block. Recall and recognition were greatest in the variable-processing group, but only with weakly related lists. A variable-processing benefit was also found when task-based processing and list-type processing were complementary (e.g., item-specific processing of a related list) rather than redundant (e.g., relational processing of a related list). That performing both item-specific and relational processing across trials, or within a trial, yields encoding-variability benefits may help reconcile decades of contradictory findings in this area. PMID:25018583

  16. Use of variability modes to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casado, M.J.; Pastor, M.A. [Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET), Madrid (Spain)

    2012-01-15

    This paper analyzes the ability of the multi-model simulations from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to simulate the main leading modes of variability over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter: the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavian mode (SCAND), the East/Atlantic Oscillation (EA) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia mode (EA/WR). These modes of variability have been evaluated both spatially, by analyzing the intensity and location of their anomaly centres, as well as temporally, by focusing on the probability density functions and e-folding time scales. The choice of variability modes as a tool for climate model assessment can be justified by the fact that modes of variability determine local climatic conditions and their likely change may have important implications for future climate changes. It is found that all the models considered are able to simulate reasonably well these four variability modes, the SCAND being the mode which is best spatially simulated. From a temporal point of view the NAO and SCAND modes are the best simulated. UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the models best at reproducing spatial characteristics, whereas CCSM3 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best ones with regard to the temporal features. GISS-AOM is the model showing the worst performance, in terms of both spatial and temporal features. These results may bring new insight into the selection and use of specific models to simulate Euro-Atlantic climate, with some models being clearly more successful in simulating patterns of temporal and spatial variability than others. (orig.)

  17. Strategic approaches to simulation-based education: A case study from Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debra Nestel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses some of the challenges met when developing widely distributed, broad spectrum, simulation-based education (SBE for health professionals, such as resource duplication, inconsistent facilities utilization, discipline-specific silos, and the intersection of academic institutions and health services sectors. We examine three primary contributors to successful simulation-based practices - strategic planning, program development, and professional networks. Further, we provide examples of how each of these contributors function at different levels to assure comprehensive, yet sustainable approaches to implementing SBE for greatest impact at national, state, regional, and institutional levels. We draw on the example of Australia and its state and regional government structures, including the challenges in providing health services across a widely variable geography and population distribution. The types of health services and issues relating to health provision and management reflect those found in many western countries. Our hope is that the experiences gained at each level of governance within Australia may inform similar, successful development in other countries. We emphasize the importance of leadership and investment at the national level that serves to inform state, regional, and institutional efforts through a "trickle down" effect. Although evaluation of the strategic planning, program development, and professional networks described in this case study is still ongoing, their preliminary coordination has resulted in significant investment and support at all levels.

  18. Impact analysis of flow variability in sizing kanbans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isaac Pergher

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of variability flow, advocated by Factory Physics, in sizing Kanban production systems. The variability of flow presupposes that the variability of activities performed by a process is dissipated throughout the productive flow system, causing variations in the lead time, the work-in-process levels and the equipment availability, among others. To conduct the research, we created a didactic model of discrete event computer simulation. The proposed model aims to present the possible impacts caused by the variability flow in a production system regarding the sizing of the number of Kanbans cards, by using the results supplied by two different investigated scenarios. The main results of the research allow concluding that, by comparing the two scenarios developed in the model, the presence of variability in the production system caused an average increase of 32% in the number of Kanban cards (p=0,000. This implies that, in real productive systems, the study of Kanban sizing should consider the variability of individual operations, a fact often relegated as an assumption in the formulation from classical literature on the definition of the number of Kanbans, thus providing opportunities for the development of future research.

  19. Fat Tail Model for Simulating Test Systems in Multiperiod Unit Commitment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Marmolejo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the use of Chambers-Mallows-Stuck method for simulating stable random variables in the generation of test systems for economic analysis in power systems. A study that focused on generating test electrical systems through fat tail model for unit commitment problem in electrical power systems is presented. Usually, the instances of test systems in Unit Commitment are generated using normal distribution, but in this work, simulations data are based on a new method. For simulating, we used three original systems to obtain the demand behavior and thermal production costs. The estimation of stable parameters for the simulation of stable random variables was based on three generally accepted methods: (a regression, (b quantiles, and (c maximum likelihood, choosing one that has the best fit of the tails of the distribution. Numerical results illustrate the applicability of the proposed method by solving several unit commitment problems.

  20. Bayesian integration of flux tower data into a process-based simulator for quantifying uncertainty in simulated output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raj, Rahul; van der Tol, Christiaan; Hamm, Nicholas Alexander Samuel; Stein, Alfred

    2018-01-01

    Parameters of a process-based forest growth simulator are difficult or impossible to obtain from field observations. Reliable estimates can be obtained using calibration against observations of output and state variables. In this study, we present a Bayesian framework to calibrate the widely used process-based simulator Biome-BGC against estimates of gross primary production (GPP) data. We used GPP partitioned from flux tower measurements of a net ecosystem exchange over a 55-year-old Douglas fir stand as an example. The uncertainties of both the Biome-BGC parameters and the simulated GPP values were estimated. The calibrated parameters leaf and fine root turnover (LFRT), ratio of fine root carbon to leaf carbon (FRC : LC), ratio of carbon to nitrogen in leaf (C : Nleaf), canopy water interception coefficient (Wint), fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (FLNR), and effective soil rooting depth (SD) characterize the photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen allocation in the forest. The calibration improved the root mean square error and enhanced Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between simulated and flux tower daily GPP compared to the uncalibrated Biome-BGC. Nevertheless, the seasonal cycle for flux tower GPP was not reproduced exactly and some overestimation in spring and underestimation in summer remained after calibration. We hypothesized that the phenology exhibited a seasonal cycle that was not accurately reproduced by the simulator. We investigated this by calibrating the Biome-BGC to each month's flux tower GPP separately. As expected, the simulated GPP improved, but the calibrated parameter values suggested that the seasonal cycle of state variables in the simulator could be improved. It was concluded that the Bayesian framework for calibration can reveal features of the modelled physical processes and identify aspects of the process simulator that are too rigid.

  1. Bayesian integration of flux tower data into a process-based simulator for quantifying uncertainty in simulated output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Raj

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameters of a process-based forest growth simulator are difficult or impossible to obtain from field observations. Reliable estimates can be obtained using calibration against observations of output and state variables. In this study, we present a Bayesian framework to calibrate the widely used process-based simulator Biome-BGC against estimates of gross primary production (GPP data. We used GPP partitioned from flux tower measurements of a net ecosystem exchange over a 55-year-old Douglas fir stand as an example. The uncertainties of both the Biome-BGC parameters and the simulated GPP values were estimated. The calibrated parameters leaf and fine root turnover (LFRT, ratio of fine root carbon to leaf carbon (FRC : LC, ratio of carbon to nitrogen in leaf (C : Nleaf, canopy water interception coefficient (Wint, fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (FLNR, and effective soil rooting depth (SD characterize the photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen allocation in the forest. The calibration improved the root mean square error and enhanced Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency between simulated and flux tower daily GPP compared to the uncalibrated Biome-BGC. Nevertheless, the seasonal cycle for flux tower GPP was not reproduced exactly and some overestimation in spring and underestimation in summer remained after calibration. We hypothesized that the phenology exhibited a seasonal cycle that was not accurately reproduced by the simulator. We investigated this by calibrating the Biome-BGC to each month's flux tower GPP separately. As expected, the simulated GPP improved, but the calibrated parameter values suggested that the seasonal cycle of state variables in the simulator could be improved. It was concluded that the Bayesian framework for calibration can reveal features of the modelled physical processes and identify aspects of the process simulator that are too rigid.

  2. Robust best linear estimation for regression analysis using surrogate and instrumental variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, C Y

    2012-04-01

    We investigate methods for regression analysis when covariates are measured with errors. In a subset of the whole cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies the classical measurement error model, but it may not have repeated measurements. In addition to the surrogate variables that are available among the subjects in the calibration sample, we assume that there is an instrumental variable (IV) that is available for all study subjects. An IV is correlated with the unobserved true exposure variable and hence can be useful in the estimation of the regression coefficients. We propose a robust best linear estimator that uses all the available data, which is the most efficient among a class of consistent estimators. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal under very weak distributional assumptions. For Poisson or linear regression, the proposed estimator is consistent even if the measurement error from the surrogate or IV is heteroscedastic. Finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator is examined and compared with other estimators via intensive simulation studies. The proposed method and other methods are applied to a bladder cancer case-control study.

  3. Comparison of Engine Simulation Software for Development of Control System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KinYip Chan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Most commonly used commercial engine simulation packages generate detailed estimation of the combustion and gas flow parameters. These parameters are required for advanced research on fluid flow and heat transfer and development of geometries of engine components. However, engine control involves different operating parameters. Various sensors are installed into the engine, the combustion performance is recorded, and data is sent to engine control unit (ECU. ECU computes the new set of parameters to make fine adjustments to actuators providing better engine performance. Such techniques include variable valve timing, variable ignition timing, variable air to fuel ratio, and variable compression ratio. In the present study, two of the commercial packages, Ricardo Wave and Lotus Engine Simulation, have been tested on the capabilities for engine control purposes. These packages are compared with an in-house developed package and with reference results available from the literature. Different numerical experiments have been carried out from which it can be concluded that all packages predict similar profiles of pressure and temperature in the engine cylinder. Moreover, those are in reasonable agreement with the reference results while in-house developed package is possible to run simulations with changing speed for engine control purpose.

  4. An Approach for Simulating Soil Loss from an Agro-Ecosystem Using Multi-Agent Simulation: A Case Study for Semi-Arid Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biola K. Badmos

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Soil loss is not limited to change from forest or woodland to other land uses/covers. It may occur when there is agricultural land-use/cover modification or conversion. Soil loss may influence loss of carbon from the soil, hence implication on greenhouse gas emission. Changing land use could be considered actually or potentially successful in adapting to climate change, or may be considered maladaptation if it creates environmental degradation. In semi-arid northern Ghana, changing agricultural practices have been identified amongst other climate variability and climate change adaptation measures. Similarly, some of the policies aimed at improving farm household resilience toward climate change impact might necessitate land use change. The heterogeneity of farm household (agents cannot be ignored when addressing land use/cover change issues, especially when livelihood is dependent on land. This paper therefore presents an approach for simulating soil loss from an agro-ecosystem using multi-agent simulation (MAS. We adapted a universal soil loss equation as a soil loss sub-model in the Vea-LUDAS model (a MAS model. Furthermore, for a 20-year simulation period, we presented the impact of agricultural land-use adaptation strategy (maize cultivation credit i.e., maize credit scenario on soil loss and compared it with the baseline scenario i.e., business-as-usual. Adoption of maize as influenced by maize cultivation credit significantly influenced agricultural land-use change in the study area. Although there was no significant difference in the soil loss under the tested scenarios, the incorporation of human decision-making in a temporal manner allowed us to view patterns that cannot be seen in single step modeling. The study shows that opening up cropland on soil with a high erosion risk has implications for soil loss. Hence, effective measures should be put in place to prevent the opening up of lands that have high erosion risk.

  5. Learning with a strategic management simulation game: A case study

    OpenAIRE

    Loon, Mark; Evans, Jason; Kerridge, Clive

    2015-01-01

    The use of simulation games as a pedagogic method is well established though its effective use is context-driven. This study adds to the increasing growing body of empirical evidence of the effectiveness of simulation games but more importantly emphasises why by explaining the instructional design implemented reflecting best practices. This multi-method study finds evidence that student learning was enhanced through the use of simulation games, reflected in the two key themes; simulation game...

  6. Driving Simulator Development and Performance Study

    OpenAIRE

    Juto, Erik

    2010-01-01

    The driving simulator is a vital tool for much of the research performed at theSwedish National Road and Transport Institute (VTI). Currently VTI posses three driving simulators, two high fidelity simulators developed and constructed by VTI, and a medium fidelity simulator from the German company Dr.-Ing. Reiner Foerst GmbH. The two high fidelity simulators run the same simulation software, developed at VTI. The medium fidelity simulator runs a proprietary simulation software. At VTI there is...

  7. A Variable Stiffness Analysis Model for Large Complex Thin-Walled Guide Rail

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Xiaolong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Large complex thin-walled guide rail has complicated structure and no uniform low rigidity. The traditional cutting simulations are time consuming due to huge computation especially in large workpiece. To solve these problems, a more efficient variable stiffness analysis model has been propose, which can obtain quantitative stiffness value of the machining surface. Applying simulate cutting force in sampling points using finite element analysis software ABAQUS, the single direction variable stiffness rule can be obtained. The variable stiffness matrix has been propose by analyzing multi-directions coupling variable stiffness rule. Combining with the three direction cutting force value, the reasonability of existing processing parameters can be verified and the optimized cutting parameters can be designed.

  8. Nonlinear vs. linear biasing in Trp-cage folding simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spiwok, Vojtěch, E-mail: spiwokv@vscht.cz; Oborský, Pavel; Králová, Blanka [Department of Biochemistry and Microbiology, University of Chemistry and Technology, Prague, Technická 3, Prague 6 166 28 (Czech Republic); Pazúriková, Jana [Institute of Computer Science, Masaryk University, Botanická 554/68a, 602 00 Brno (Czech Republic); Křenek, Aleš [Institute of Computer Science, Masaryk University, Botanická 554/68a, 602 00 Brno (Czech Republic); Center CERIT-SC, Masaryk Univerzity, Šumavská 416/15, 602 00 Brno (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-21

    Biased simulations have great potential for the study of slow processes, including protein folding. Atomic motions in molecules are nonlinear, which suggests that simulations with enhanced sampling of collective motions traced by nonlinear dimensionality reduction methods may perform better than linear ones. In this study, we compare an unbiased folding simulation of the Trp-cage miniprotein with metadynamics simulations using both linear (principle component analysis) and nonlinear (Isomap) low dimensional embeddings as collective variables. Folding of the mini-protein was successfully simulated in 200 ns simulation with linear biasing and non-linear motion biasing. The folded state was correctly predicted as the free energy minimum in both simulations. We found that the advantage of linear motion biasing is that it can sample a larger conformational space, whereas the advantage of nonlinear motion biasing lies in slightly better resolution of the resulting free energy surface. In terms of sampling efficiency, both methods are comparable.

  9. Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

    2018-05-01

    Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed

  10. Suppression of threshold voltage variability in MOSFETs by adjustment of ion implantation parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jae Hyun; Chang, Tae-sig; Kim, Minsuk; Woo, Sola; Kim, Sangsig

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we investigate threshold voltage (VTH) variability of metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors induced by random dopant fluctuation (RDF). Our simulation work demonstrates not only the influence of the implantation parameters such as its dose, tilt angle, energy, and rotation angle on the RDF-induced VTH variability, but also the solution to reduce the effect of this variability. By adjusting the ion implantation parameters, the 3σ (VTH) is reduced from 43.8 mV to 28.9 mV. This 34% reduction is significant, considering that our technique is very cost effective and facilitates easy fabrication, increasing availability.

  11. Multi-Bunch Simulations of the ILC for Luminosity Performance Studies

    CERN Document Server

    White, Glen; Walker, Nicholas J

    2005-01-01

    To study the luminosity performance of the International Linear Collider (ILC) with different design parameters, a simulation was constructed that tracks a multi-bunch representation of the beam from the Damping Ring extraction through to the Interaction Point. The simulation code PLACET is used to simulate the LINAC, MatMerlin is used to track through the Beam Delivery System and GUINEA-PIG for the beam-beam interaction. Included in the simulation are ground motion and wakefield effects, intra-train fast feedback and luminosity-based feedback systems. To efficiently study multiple parameters/multiple seeds, the simulation is deployed on the Queen Mary High-Throughput computing cluster at Queen Mary, University of London, where 100 simultaneous simulation seeds can be run.

  12. Spectroscopic analysis of Cepheid variables with 2D radiation-hydrodynamic simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasilyev, Valeriy

    2018-06-01

    The analysis of chemical enrichment history of dwarf galaxies allows to derive constraints on their formation and evolution. In this context, Cepheids play a very important role, as these periodically variable stars provide a means to obtain accurate distances. Besides, chemical composition of Cepheids can provide a strong constraint on the chemical evolution of the system. Standard spectroscopic analysis of Cepheids is based on using one-dimensional (1D) hydrostatic model atmospheres, with convection parametrised using the mixing-length theory. However, this quasi-static approach has theoretically not been validated. In my talk, I will discuss the validity of the quasi-static approximation in spectroscopy of short-periodic Cepheids. I will show the results obtained using a 2D time-dependent envelope model of a pulsating star computed with the radiation-hydrodynamics code CO5BOLD. I will then describe the impact of new models on the spectroscopic diagnostic of the effective temperature, surface gravity, microturbulent velocity, and metallicity. One of the interesting findings of my work is that 1D model atmospheres provide unbiased estimates of stellar parameters and abundances of Cepheid variables for certain phases of their pulsations. Convective inhomogeneities, however, also introduce biases. I will then discuss how these results can be used in a wider parameter space of pulsating stars and present an outlook for the future studies.

  13. Partnering to Establish and Study Simulation in International Nursing Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, Shelby L; Killingsworth, Erin; Raj, Leena

    The purpose of this article was to describe an international partnership to establish and study simulation in India. A pilot study was performed to determine interrater reliability among faculty new to simulation when evaluating nursing student competency performance. Interrater reliability was below the ideal agreement level. Findings in this study underscore the need to obtain baseline interrater reliability data before integrating competency evaluation into a simulation program.

  14. Initial testing of a variable-stroke Stirling engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieme, L. G.

    1985-01-01

    In support of the U.S. Department of Energy's Stirling Engine Highway Vehicle Systems Program, NASA Lewis Research Center is evaluating variable-stroke control for Stirling engines. The engine being tested is the Advenco Stirling engine; this engine was manufactured by Philips Research Laboratories of the Netherlands and uses a variable-angle swash-plate drive to achieve variable stroke operation. The engine is described, initial steady-state test data taken at Lewis are presented, a major drive system failure and subsequent modifications are described. Computer simulation results are presented to show potential part-load efficiency gains with variable-stroke control.

  15. Bayesian Multiresolution Variable Selection for Ultra-High Dimensional Neuroimaging Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yize; Kang, Jian; Long, Qi

    2018-01-01

    Ultra-high dimensional variable selection has become increasingly important in analysis of neuroimaging data. For example, in the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) study, neuroscientists are interested in identifying important biomarkers for early detection of the autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using high resolution brain images that include hundreds of thousands voxels. However, most existing methods are not feasible for solving this problem due to their extensive computational costs. In this work, we propose a novel multiresolution variable selection procedure under a Bayesian probit regression framework. It recursively uses posterior samples for coarser-scale variable selection to guide the posterior inference on finer-scale variable selection, leading to very efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The proposed algorithms are computationally feasible for ultra-high dimensional data. Also, our model incorporates two levels of structural information into variable selection using Ising priors: the spatial dependence between voxels and the functional connectivity between anatomical brain regions. Applied to the resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (R-fMRI) data in the ABIDE study, our methods identify voxel-level imaging biomarkers highly predictive of the ASD, which are biologically meaningful and interpretable. Extensive simulations also show that our methods achieve better performance in variable selection compared to existing methods.

  16. Spatial Variability in Column CO2 Inferred from High Resolution GEOS-5 Global Model Simulations: Implications for Remote Sensing and Inversions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, L.; Putman, B.; Collatz, J.; Gregg, W.

    2012-01-01

    Column CO2 observations from current and future remote sensing missions represent a major advancement in our understanding of the carbon cycle and are expected to help constrain source and sink distributions. However, data assimilation and inversion methods are challenged by the difference in scale of models and observations. OCO-2 footprints represent an area of several square kilometers while NASA s future ASCENDS lidar mission is likely to have an even smaller footprint. In contrast, the resolution of models used in global inversions are typically hundreds of kilometers wide and often cover areas that include combinations of land, ocean and coastal areas and areas of significant topographic, land cover, and population density variations. To improve understanding of scales of atmospheric CO2 variability and representativeness of satellite observations, we will present results from a global, 10-km simulation of meteorology and atmospheric CO2 distributions performed using NASA s GEOS-5 general circulation model. This resolution, typical of mesoscale atmospheric models, represents an order of magnitude increase in resolution over typical global simulations of atmospheric composition allowing new insight into small scale CO2 variations across a wide range of surface flux and meteorological conditions. The simulation includes high resolution flux datasets provided by NASA s Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project at half degree resolution that have been down-scaled to 10-km using remote sensing datasets. Probability distribution functions are calculated over larger areas more typical of global models (100-400 km) to characterize subgrid-scale variability in these models. Particular emphasis is placed on coastal regions and regions containing megacities and fires to evaluate the ability of coarse resolution models to represent these small scale features. Additionally, model output are sampled using averaging kernels characteristic of OCO-2 and ASCENDS measurement

  17. Variable-density groundwater flow simulations and particle tracking. Numerical modelling using DarcyTools. Preliminary site description of the Simpevarp area, version 1.1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Follin, Sven; Stigsson, Martin; Berglund, Sten; Svensson, Urban

    2004-12-01

    SKB is conducting site investigations for a high-level nuclear waste repository in fractured crystalline rocks at two coastal areas in Sweden, Forsmark and Simpevarp. The investigations started in 2002 and have been planned since the late 1990s. The work presented here investigates the possibility of using hydrogeochemical measurements in deep boreholes to reduce parameter uncertainty in a regional modelling of groundwater flow in fractured rock. The work was conducted with the aim of improving the palaeohydrogeological understanding of the Simpevarp area and to give recommendations to the preparations of the next version of the Preliminary Site Description (1.2). The study is based on a large number of numerical simulations of transient variable density groundwater flow through a strongly heterogeneous and anisotropic medium. The simulations were conducted with the computer code DarcyTools, the development of which has been funded by SKB. DarcyTools is a flexible porous media code specifically designed to treat groundwater flow and salt transport in sparsely fractured crystalline rock and it is noted that some of the features presented in this report are still under development or subjected to testing and verification. The simulations reveal the sensitivity of the results to different hydrogeological modelling assumptions, e.g. the sensitivity to the initial groundwater conditions at 10,000 BC, the size of the model domain and boundary conditions, and the hydraulic properties of deterministically and stochastically modelled deformation zones. The outcome of these simulations was compared with measured salinities and calculated relative proportions of different water types (mixing proportions) from measurements in two deep core drilled boreholes in the Laxemar subarea. In addition to the flow simulations, the statistics of flow related transport parameters were calculated for particle flowpaths from repository depth to ground surface for two subareas within the

  18. Variable-density groundwater flow simulations and particle tracking. Numerical modelling using DarcyTools. Preliminary site description of the Simpevarp area, version 1.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Follin, Sven [SF GeoLogic AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Stigsson, Martin; Berglund, Sten [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Svensson, Urban [Computer-aided Fluid Engineering AB, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2004-12-01

    SKB is conducting site investigations for a high-level nuclear waste repository in fractured crystalline rocks at two coastal areas in Sweden, Forsmark and Simpevarp. The investigations started in 2002 and have been planned since the late 1990s. The work presented here investigates the possibility of using hydrogeochemical measurements in deep boreholes to reduce parameter uncertainty in a regional modelling of groundwater flow in fractured rock. The work was conducted with the aim of improving the palaeohydrogeological understanding of the Simpevarp area and to give recommendations to the preparations of the next version of the Preliminary Site Description (1.2). The study is based on a large number of numerical simulations of transient variable density groundwater flow through a strongly heterogeneous and anisotropic medium. The simulations were conducted with the computer code DarcyTools, the development of which has been funded by SKB. DarcyTools is a flexible porous media code specifically designed to treat groundwater flow and salt transport in sparsely fractured crystalline rock and it is noted that some of the features presented in this report are still under development or subjected to testing and verification. The simulations reveal the sensitivity of the results to different hydrogeological modelling assumptions, e.g. the sensitivity to the initial groundwater conditions at 10,000 BC, the size of the model domain and boundary conditions, and the hydraulic properties of deterministically and stochastically modelled deformation zones. The outcome of these simulations was compared with measured salinities and calculated relative proportions of different water types (mixing proportions) from measurements in two deep core drilled boreholes in the Laxemar subarea. In addition to the flow simulations, the statistics of flow related transport parameters were calculated for particle flowpaths from repository depth to ground surface for two subareas within the

  19. 6 DOF Nonlinear AUV Simulation Toolbox

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    advantage of monitor is you can change the shared memory variables at any time. So it can be used for “ hardware in loop ” simulation. An editable monitor...for tuning controller. “ Hardware in loop ” simulation will be tested in recently. In the coming year, we will improve this simulation software. We

  20. Role of aerosols on the Indian Summer Monsoon variability, as simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cagnazzo, Chiara; Biondi, Riccardo; D'Errico, Miriam; Cherchi, Annalisa; Fierli, Federico; Lau, William K. M.

    2016-04-01

    Recent observational and modeling analyses have explored the interaction between aerosols and the Indian summer monsoon precipitation on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. By using global scale climate model simulations, we show that when increased aerosol loading is found on the Himalayas slopes in the premonsoon period (April-May), intensification of early monsoon rainfall over India and increased low-level westerly flow follow, in agreement with the elevated-heat-pump (EHP) mechanism. The increase in rainfall during the early monsoon season has a cooling effect on the land surface that may also be amplified through solar dimming (SD) by more cloudiness and aerosol loading with subsequent reduction in monsoon rainfall over India. We extend this analyses to a subset of CMIP5 climate model simulations. Our results suggest that 1) absorbing aerosols, by influencing the seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon with the discussed time-lag, may act as a source of predictability for the Indian Summer Monsoon and 2) if the EHP and SD effects are operating also in a number of state-of-the-art climate models, their inclusion could potentially improve seasonal forecasts.

  1. A verification study and trend analysis of simulated boundary layer wind fields over Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindenberg, Janna

    2011-07-01

    Simulated wind fields from regional climate models (RCMs) are increasingly used as a surrogate for observations which are costly and prone to homogeneity deficiencies. Compounding the problem, a lack of reliable observations makes the validation of the simulated wind fields a non trivial exercise. Whilst the literature shows that RCMs tend to underestimate strong winds over land these investigations mainly relied on comparisons with near surface measurements and extrapolated model wind fields. In this study a new approach is proposed using measurements from high towers and a robust validation process. Tower height wind data are smoother and thus more representative of regional winds. As benefit this approach circumvents the need to extrapolate simulated wind fields. The performance of two models using different downscaling techniques is evaluated. The influence of the boundary conditions on the simulation of wind statistics is investigated. Both models demonstrate a reasonable performance over flat homogeneous terrain and deficiencies over complex terrain, such as the Upper Rhine Valley, due to a too coarse spatial resolution ({proportional_to}50 km). When the spatial resolution is increased to 10 and 20 km respectively a benefit is found for the simulation of the wind direction only. A sensitivity analysis shows major deviations of international land cover data. A time series analysis of dynamically downscaled simulations is conducted. While the annual cycle and the interannual variability are well simulated, the models are less effective at simulating small scale fluctuations and the diurnal cycle. The hypothesis that strong winds are underestimated by RCMs is supported by means of a storm analysis. Only two-thirds of the observed storms are simulated by the model using a spectral nudging approach. In addition ''False Alarms'' are simulated, which are not detected in the observations. A trend analysis over the period 1961 - 2000 is conducted

  2. Simulation of dynamic systems with Matlab and Simulink

    CERN Document Server

    Klee, Harold

    2011-01-01

    Mathematical ModelingDerivation of a Mathematical ModelDifference EquationsFirst Look at Discrete-Time SystemsCase Study: Population Dynamics (Single Species)Continuous-Time SystemsFirst-Order SystemsSecond-Order SystemsSimulation DiagramsHigher-Order SystemsState VariablesNonlinear SystemsCase Study: Submarine Depth Control SystemElementary Numerical IntegrationDiscrete-Time System Approximation of a Continuous-

  3. A variable-order fractal derivative model for anomalous diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xiaoting

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper pays attention to develop a variable-order fractal derivative model for anomalous diffusion. Previous investigations have indicated that the medium structure, fractal dimension or porosity may change with time or space during solute transport processes, results in time or spatial dependent anomalous diffusion phenomena. Hereby, this study makes an attempt to introduce a variable-order fractal derivative diffusion model, in which the index of fractal derivative depends on temporal moment or spatial position, to characterize the above mentioned anomalous diffusion (or transport processes. Compared with other models, the main advantages in description and the physical explanation of new model are explored by numerical simulation. Further discussions on the dissimilitude such as computational efficiency, diffusion behavior and heavy tail phenomena of the new model and variable-order fractional derivative model are also offered.

  4. Stratospheric impact on tropospheric ozone variability and trends: 1990–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. G. Hess

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The influence of stratospheric ozone on the interannual variability and trends in tropospheric ozone is evaluated between 30 and 90° N from 1990–2009 using ozone measurements and a global chemical transport model, the Community Atmospheric Model with chemistry (CAM-chem. Long-term measurements from ozonesondes, at 150 and 500 hPa, and the Measurements of OZone and water vapour by in-service Airbus aircraft programme (MOZAIC, at 500 hPa, are analyzed over Japan, Canada, the Eastern US and Northern and Central Europe. The measurements generally emphasize northern latitudes, although the simulation suggests that measurements over the Canadian, Northern and Central European regions are representative of the large-scale interannual ozone variability from 30 to 90° N at 500 hPa. CAM-chem is run with input meteorology from the National Center for Environmental Prediction; a tagging methodology is used to identify the stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone concentrations. A variant of the synthetic ozone tracer (synoz is used to represent stratospheric ozone. Both the model and measurements indicate that on large spatial scales stratospheric interannual ozone variability drives significant tropospheric variability at 500 hPa and the surface. In particular, the simulation and the measurements suggest large stratospheric influence at the surface sites of Mace Head (Ireland and Jungfraujoch (Switzerland as well as many 500 hPa measurement locations. Both the measurements and simulation suggest the stratosphere has contributed to tropospheric ozone trends. In many locations between 30–90° N 500 hPa ozone significantly increased from 1990–2000, but has leveled off since (from 2000–2009. The simulated global ozone budget suggests global stratosphere-troposphere exchange increased in 1998–1999 in association with a global ozone anomaly. Discrepancies between the simulated and measured ozone budget include a large underestimation of

  5. Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon: impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molteni, Franco; Corti, Susanna; Ferranti, Laura; Slingo, Julia M.

    2003-07-01

    The effects of SST anomalies on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon have been studied by multivariate statistical analyses of 850-hPa wind and rainfall fields simulated in a set of ensemble integrations of the ECMWF atmospheric GCM, referred to as the PRISM experiments. The simulations used observed SSTs (PRISM-O), covering 9 years characterised by large variations of the ENSO phenomenon in the 1980's and the early 1990's. A parallel set of simulations was also performed with climatological SSTs (PRISM-C), thus enabling the influence of SST forcing on the modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability to be investigated. As in observations, the model's interannual variability is dominated by a zonally-oriented mode which describes the north-south movement of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). This mode appears to be independent of SST forcing and its robustness between the PRISM-O and PRISM-C simulations suggests that it is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics. On the other hand, the second mode of variability, which again has a good correspondence with observed patterns, shows a clear relationship with the ENSO cycle. Since the mode related to ENSO accounts for only a small part of the total variance, the notion of a quasi-linear superposition of forced and unforced modes of variability may not provide an appropriate interpretation of monsoon interannual variability. Consequently, the possibility of a non-linear influence has been investigated by exploring the relationship between interannual and intraseasonal variability. As in other studies, a common mode of interannual and intraseasonal variability has been found, in this case describing the north-south transition of the TCZ associated with monsoon active/break cycles. Although seasonal-mean values of the Principal Component (PC) timeseries associated with the leading intraseasonal mode shows no significant correlation with ENSO, the 2-dimensional probability

  6. Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon: Impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molteni, F.; Corti, S.; Ferranti, L.; Slingo, J.M.

    2002-04-01

    The effects of SST anomalies on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon have been studied by multivariate statistical analyses of 850-hPa wind and rainfall yields simulated in a set of ensemble integrations of the ECMWF atmospheric GCM, referred to as the PRISM experiments. The simulations used observed SSTs (PRISM-O), covering 9 years characterised by large variations of the ENSO phenomenon in the 1980's and the early 1990's. A parallel set of simulations was also performed with climatological SSTs (PRISM-C), thus enabling the influence of SST forcing on the modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability to be investigated. As in observations, the model's interannual variability is dominated by a zonally-oriented mode which describes the north-south movement of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ). This mode appears to be independent of SST forcing and its robustness between the PRISM-O and PRISM-C simulations suggests that it is driven by internal atmospheric dynamics. On the other hand, the second mode of variability, which again has a good correspondence with observed patterns, shows a clear relationship with the ENSO cycle. Since the mode related to ENSO accounts for only a small part of the total variance, the notion of a quasi-linear superposition of forced and unforced modes of variability may not provide an appropriate interpretation of monsoon interannual variability. Consequently, the possibility of a non-linear influence has been investigated by exploring the relationship between interannual and intraseasonal variability. As in other studies, a common mode of interannual and intraseasonal variability has been found, in this case describing the north-south transition of the TCZ associated with monsoon active/break cycles. Although seasonal-mean values of the Principal Component (PC) timeseries associated with the leading intraseasonal mode shows no significant correlation with ENSO, the 2-dimensional probability

  7. Global variability of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makkonen, Risto; Krüger, Olaf

    2017-04-01

    Atmospheric aerosols can influence cloud optical and dynamical processes by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Globally, these indirect aerosol effects are significant to the radiative budget as well as a source of high uncertainty in anthropogenic radiative forcing. While historically many global climate models have fixed CCN concentrations to a certain level, most state-of-the-art models calculate aerosol-cloud interactions with sophisticated methodologies based on interactively simulated aerosol size distributions. However, due to scarcity of atmospheric observations simulated global CCN concentrations remain poorly constrained. Here we assess global CCN variability with a climate model, and attribute potential trends during 2000-2010 to changes in emissions and meteorological fields. Here we have used ECHAM5.5-HAM2 with model M7 microphysical aerosol model. The model has been upgraded with a secondary organic aerosol (SOA) scheme including ELVOCs. Dust and sea salt emissions are calculated online, based on wind speed and hydrology. Each experiment is 11 years, analysed after a 6-month spin-up period. The MODIS CCN product (Terra platform) is used to evaluate model performance throughout 2000-2010. While optical remote observation of CCN column includes several deficiencies, the products serves as a proxy for changes during the simulation period. In our analysis we utilize the observed and simulated vertical column integrated CCN concentration, and limit our analysis only over marine regions. Simulated annual CCN column densities reach 2ṡ108 cm-2 near strong source regions in central Africa, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and China sea. The spatial concentration gradient in CCN(0.2%) is steep, and column densities drop to coasts. While the spatial distribution of CCN at 0.2% supersaturation is closer to that of MODIS proxy, as opposed to 1.0% supersaturation, the overall column integrated CCN are too low. Still, we can compare the relative response of CCN

  8. Evaluation of nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreto, Felipe Rodrigues; Salmon, Carlos Ernesto Garrido, E-mail: garrido@ffclrp.usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (FFCLRP/USP), Ribeirao Preto, SP (Brazil). Fac. de Filisofia, Ciencias e Letras; Otaduy, Maria Concepcion Garcia [Universidade de Sao Paulo (FAMUS/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Fac. de Medicina. Departamento de Radiologia

    2014-11-01

    Introduction: the intrinsically high sensitivity of Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) causes considerable variability in metabolite quantification. In this study, we evaluated the variability of MRS in two research centers using the same model of magnetic resonance image scanner. Methods: two metabolic phantoms were created to simulate magnetic resonance spectra from in vivo hippocampus. The phantoms were filled with the same basic solution containing the following metabolites: N-acetyl-aspartate, creatine, choline, glutamate, glutamine and inositol. Spectra were acquired over 15 months on 26 acquisition dates, resulting in a total of 130 spectra per center. Results: the phantoms did not undergo any physical changes during the 15-month period. Temporal analysis from both centers showed mean metabolic variations of 3.7% in acquisitions on the same day and of 8.7% over the 15-month period. Conclusion: The low deviations demonstrated here, combined with the high specificity of Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy, confirm that it is feasible to use this technique in multicenter studies in neuroscience research. (author)

  9. Driving simulator sickness: Impact on driving performance, influence of blood alcohol concentration, and effect of repeated simulator exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helland, Arne; Lydersen, Stian; Lervåg, Lone-Eirin; Jenssen, Gunnar D; Mørland, Jørg; Slørdal, Lars

    2016-09-01

    Simulator sickness is a major obstacle to the use of driving simulators for research, training and driver assessment purposes. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the possible influence of simulator sickness on driving performance measures such as standard deviation of lateral position (SDLP), and the effect of alcohol or repeated simulator exposure on the degree of simulator sickness. Twenty healthy male volunteers underwent three simulated driving trials of 1h's duration with a curvy rural road scenario, and rated their degree of simulator sickness after each trial. Subjects drove sober and with blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) of approx. 0.5g/L and 0.9g/L in a randomized order. Simulator sickness score (SSS) did not influence the primary outcome measure SDLP. Higher SSS significantly predicted lower average speed and frequency of steering wheel reversals. These effects seemed to be mitigated by alcohol. Higher BAC significantly predicted lower SSS, suggesting that alcohol inebriation alleviates simulator sickness. The negative relation between the number of previous exposures to the simulator and SSS was not statistically significant, but is consistent with habituation to the sickness-inducing effects, as shown in other studies. Overall, the results suggest no influence of simulator sickness on SDLP or several other driving performance measures. However, simulator sickness seems to cause test subjects to drive more carefully, with lower average speed and fewer steering wheel reversals, hampering the interpretation of these outcomes as measures of driving impairment and safety. BAC and repeated simulator exposures may act as confounding variables by influencing the degree of simulator sickness in experimental studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. In-hospital resuscitation evaluated by in situ simulation: a prospective simulation study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mondrup, Frederik; Brabrand, Mikkel; Folkestad, Lars

    2011-01-01

    , and to examine differences in the resuscitation performance between the first responders and the cardiac arrest team. METHOD: S: A prospective observational study of 16 unannounced simulated cardiopulmonary arrest scenarios was conducted. The participants of the study involved all health care personel on duty...

  11. Spatiotemporal variability and long-term trends of ocean acidification in the California Current System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hauri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to seasonal upwelling, the upper ocean waters of the California Current System (CCS have a naturally low pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag, making this region particularly prone to the effects of ocean acidification. Here, we use the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS to conduct preindustrial and transient (1995–2050 simulations of ocean biogeochemistry in the CCS. The transient simulations were forced with increasing atmospheric pCO2 and increasing oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations at the lateral boundaries, as projected by the NCAR CSM 1.4 model for the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Our results show a large seasonal variability in pH (range of ~ 0.14 and Ωarag (~ 0.2 for the nearshore areas (50 km from shore. This variability is created by the interplay of physical and biogeochemical processes. Despite this large variability, we find that present-day pH and Ωarag have already moved outside of their simulated preindustrial variability envelopes (defined by ±1 temporal standard deviation due to the rapidly increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2. The nearshore surface pH of the northern and central CCS are simulated to move outside of their present-day variability envelopes by the mid-2040s and late 2030s, respectively. This transition may occur even earlier for nearshore surface Ωarag, which is projected to depart from its present-day variability envelope by the early- to mid-2030s. The aragonite saturation horizon of the central CCS is projected to shoal into the upper 75 m within the next 25 yr, causing near-permanent undersaturation in subsurface waters. Due to the model's overestimation of Ωarag, this transition may occur even earlier than simulated by the model. Overall, our study shows that the CCS joins the Arctic and Southern oceans as one of only a few known ocean regions presently approaching the dual threshold of

  12. Variable delay generator, type GRV 1; Generateur de retards variables, type GRV 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caillet, C.; Chaigne, M.; Janot, P. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1964-07-01

    This apparatus has been designed mainly for simulating the passage of a fluid circulating inside a pipe. It is assumed that no heat exchange occurs during the passage so that the temperature of the fluid is the same at the entry and at the exit. A consequence of this is that the apparatus memorizes the value of the temperature on entry and reproduces it again at the end of the passage. The memorizing is effected by means of condensers which are charged at a given moment and whose voltage across the terminals is read after a time which is proportional to the variable flow of the fluid. The object is therefore to delay a given value, whence the name of variable delay generator. In its present form the apparatus can produce delays of from 1,4 seconds to 3000 seconds and more. (authors) [French] Cet appareil a ete concu principalement pour simuler la duree de trajet d'un fluide circulant a l'interieur d'une tuyauterie. On admet qu'il n'y a aucun echange de chaleur durant le trajet de sorte que la temperature du fluide a la sortie est egale a celle qu'il avait a l'entree. Il en resulte que l'appareil met en memoire la valeur de la temperature a l'entree et la restitue a la fin de la duree du trajet. La memoire est realisee par des condensateurs qui sont charges a un instant donne et dont la tension aux bornes est lue apres un temps proportionnel au debit variable du fluide. Tout revient donc a retarder une grandeur, d'ou le nom de generateur de retards variables. Dans sa forme actuelle l'appareil permet d'obtenir des retards allant de 1,4 secondes a 3000 secondes et davantage. (auteurs)

  13. Variable delay generator, type GRV 1; Generateur de retards variables, type GRV 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caillet, C; Chaigne, M; Janot, P [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1964-07-01

    This apparatus has been designed mainly for simulating the passage of a fluid circulating inside a pipe. It is assumed that no heat exchange occurs during the passage so that the temperature of the fluid is the same at the entry and at the exit. A consequence of this is that the apparatus memorizes the value of the temperature on entry and reproduces it again at the end of the passage. The memorizing is effected by means of condensers which are charged at a given moment and whose voltage across the terminals is read after a time which is proportional to the variable flow of the fluid. The object is therefore to delay a given value, whence the name of variable delay generator. In its present form the apparatus can produce delays of from 1,4 seconds to 3000 seconds and more. (authors) [French] Cet appareil a ete concu principalement pour simuler la duree de trajet d'un fluide circulant a l'interieur d'une tuyauterie. On admet qu'il n'y a aucun echange de chaleur durant le trajet de sorte que la temperature du fluide a la sortie est egale a celle qu'il avait a l'entree. Il en resulte que l'appareil met en memoire la valeur de la temperature a l'entree et la restitue a la fin de la duree du trajet. La memoire est realisee par des condensateurs qui sont charges a un instant donne et dont la tension aux bornes est lue apres un temps proportionnel au debit variable du fluide. Tout revient donc a retarder une grandeur, d'ou le nom de generateur de retards variables. Dans sa forme actuelle l'appareil permet d'obtenir des retards allant de 1,4 secondes a 3000 secondes et davantage. (auteurs)

  14. A Model for Positively Correlated Count Variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Rubak, Ege Holger

    2010-01-01

    An α-permanental random field is briefly speaking a model for a collection of non-negative integer valued random variables with positive associations. Though such models possess many appealing probabilistic properties, many statisticians seem unaware of α-permanental random fields...... and their potential applications. The purpose of this paper is to summarize useful probabilistic results, study stochastic constructions and simulation techniques, and discuss some examples of α-permanental random fields. This should provide a useful basis for discussing the statistical aspects in future work....

  15. Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. C. Stephan

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air–sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ∼ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air–sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

  16. Predictive Variable Gain Iterative Learning Control for PMSM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huimin Xu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A predictive variable gain strategy in iterative learning control (ILC is introduced. Predictive variable gain iterative learning control is constructed to improve the performance of trajectory tracking. A scheme based on predictive variable gain iterative learning control for eliminating undesirable vibrations of PMSM system is proposed. The basic idea is that undesirable vibrations of PMSM system are eliminated from two aspects of iterative domain and time domain. The predictive method is utilized to determine the learning gain in the ILC algorithm. Compression mapping principle is used to prove the convergence of the algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate that the predictive variable gain is superior to constant gain and other variable gains.

  17. Bayesian Hierarchical Structure for Quantifying Population Variability to Inform Probabilistic Health Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Kan; Allen, Bruce C; Wheeler, Matthew W

    2017-10-01

    Human variability is a very important factor considered in human health risk assessment for protecting sensitive populations from chemical exposure. Traditionally, to account for this variability, an interhuman uncertainty factor is applied to lower the exposure limit. However, using a fixed uncertainty factor rather than probabilistically accounting for human variability can hardly support probabilistic risk assessment advocated by a number of researchers; new methods are needed to probabilistically quantify human population variability. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify variability among different populations. This approach jointly characterizes the distribution of risk at background exposure and the sensitivity of response to exposure, which are commonly represented by model parameters. We demonstrate, through both an application to real data and a simulation study, that using the proposed hierarchical structure adequately characterizes variability across different populations. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. A plant's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyer, Christopher P O; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Rammig, Anja; Wolf, Annett; Bartholomeus, Ruud P; Bonfante, Antonello; de Lorenzi, Francesca; Dury, Marie; Gloning, Philipp; Abou Jaoudé, Renée; Klein, Tamir; Kuster, Thomas M; Martins, Monica; Niedrist, Georg; Riccardi, Maria; Wohlfahrt, Georg; de Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; François, Louis; Menzel, Annette; Pereira, Marízia

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heat-waves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  19. Wind Forced Variability in Eddy Formation, Eddy Shedding, and the Separation of the East Australian Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull, Christopher Y. S.; Kiss, Andrew E.; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; England, Matthew H.; van Sebille, Erik

    2017-12-01

    The East Australian Current (EAC), like many other subtropical western boundary currents, is believed to be penetrating further poleward in recent decades. Previous observational and model studies have used steady state dynamics to relate changes in the westerly winds to changes in the separation behavior of the EAC. As yet, little work has been undertaken on the impact of forcing variability on the EAC and Tasman Sea circulation. Here using an eddy-permitting regional ocean model, we present a suite of simulations forced by the same time-mean fields, but with different atmospheric and remote ocean variability. These eddy-permitting results demonstrate the nonlinear response of the EAC to variable, nonstationary inhomogeneous forcing. These simulations show an EAC with high intrinsic variability and stochastic eddy shedding. We show that wind stress variability on time scales shorter than 56 days leads to increases in eddy shedding rates and southward eddy propagation, producing an increased transport and southward reach of the mean EAC extension. We adopt an energetics framework that shows the EAC extension changes to be coincident with an increase in offshore, upstream eddy variance (via increased barotropic instability) and increase in subsurface mean kinetic energy along the length of the EAC. The response of EAC separation to regional variable wind stress has important implications for both past and future climate change studies.

  20. Bias correction by use of errors-in-variables regression models in studies with K-X-ray fluorescence bone lead measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamadrid-Figueroa, Héctor; Téllez-Rojo, Martha M; Angeles, Gustavo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Hu, Howard

    2011-01-01

    In-vivo measurement of bone lead by means of K-X-ray fluorescence (KXRF) is the preferred biological marker of chronic exposure to lead. Unfortunately, considerable measurement error associated with KXRF estimations can introduce bias in estimates of the effect of bone lead when this variable is included as the exposure in a regression model. Estimates of uncertainty reported by the KXRF instrument reflect the variance of the measurement error and, although they can be used to correct the measurement error bias, they are seldom used in epidemiological statistical analyzes. Errors-in-variables regression (EIV) allows for correction of bias caused by measurement error in predictor variables, based on the knowledge of the reliability of such variables. The authors propose a way to obtain reliability coefficients for bone lead measurements from uncertainty data reported by the KXRF instrument and compare, by the use of Monte Carlo simulations, results obtained using EIV regression models vs. those obtained by the standard procedures. Results of the simulations show that Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression models provide severely biased estimates of effect, and that EIV provides nearly unbiased estimates. Although EIV effect estimates are more imprecise, their mean squared error is much smaller than that of OLS estimates. In conclusion, EIV is a better alternative than OLS to estimate the effect of bone lead when measured by KXRF. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Variable selection methods in PLS regression - a comparison study on metabolomics data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karaman, İbrahim; Hedemann, Mette Skou; Knudsen, Knud Erik Bach

    . The aim of the metabolomics study was to investigate the metabolic profile in pigs fed various cereal fractions with special attention to the metabolism of lignans using LC-MS based metabolomic approach. References 1. Lê Cao KA, Rossouw D, Robert-Granié C, Besse P: A Sparse PLS for Variable Selection when...... integrated approach. Due to the high number of variables in data sets (both raw data and after peak picking) the selection of important variables in an explorative analysis is difficult, especially when different data sets of metabolomics data need to be related. Variable selection (or removal of irrelevant...... different strategies for variable selection on PLSR method were considered and compared with respect to selected subset of variables and the possibility for biological validation. Sparse PLSR [1] as well as PLSR with Jack-knifing [2] was applied to data in order to achieve variable selection prior...

  2. A novel variable-gravity simulation method: potential for astronaut training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussingham, J C; Cocks, F H

    1995-11-01

    Zero gravity conditions for astronaut training have traditionally used neutral buoyancy tanks, and with such tanks hypogravity conditions are produced by the use of supplemental weights. This technique does not allow for the influence of water viscosity on any reduced gravity exercise regime. With a water-foam fluid produced by using a microbubble air flow together with surface active agents to prevent bubble agglomeration, it has been found possible to simulate a range of gravity conditions without the need for supplemental weights and additionally with a substantial reduction in the resulting fluid viscosity. This new technique appears to have application in improving the simulation environment for astronaut training under the reduced gravity conditions to be found on the moon or on Mars, and may have terrestrial applications in patient rehabilitation and exercise as well.

  3. Performance and emission characteristics of LPG powered four stroke SI engine under variable stroke length and compression ratio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozcan, Hakan; Yamin, Jehad A.A.

    2008-01-01

    A computer simulation of a variable stroke length, LPG fuelled, four stroke, single cylinder, water cooled spark ignition engine was done. The engine capacity was varied by varying the stroke length of the engine, which also changed its compression ratio. The simulation model developed was verified with experimental results from the literature for both constant and variable stroke engines. The performance of the engine was simulated at each stroke length/compression ratio combination. The simulation results clearly indicate the advantages and utility of variable stroke engines in fuel economy and power issues. Using the variable stroke technique has significantly improved the engine's performance and emission characteristics within the range studied. The brake torque and power have registered an increase of about 7-54% at low speed and 7-57% at high speed relative to the original engine design and for all stroke lengths and engine speeds studied. The brake specific fuel consumption has registered variations from a reduction of about 6% to an increase of about 3% at low speed and from a reduction of about 6% to an increase of about 8% at high speed relative to the original engine design and for all stroke lengths and engine speeds studied. On the other hand, an increase of pollutants of about 0.65-2% occurred at low speed. Larger stroke lengths resulted in a reduction of the pollutants level of about 1.5% at higher speeds. At lower stroke lengths, on the other hand, an increase of about 2% occurred. Larger stroke lengths resulted in increased exhaust temperature and, hence, make the exhaust valve work under high temperature

  4. A New Structure Based on Cascaded Multilevel Converter for Variable Speed Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deng, Fujin; Chen, Zhe

    2010-01-01

    An alternative structure for variable speed wind turbine, using multiple permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSGs) drive-train configuration and cascaded multilevel converter is proposed in this paper. This study presents a power electronic solution for the wind turbine. A transformer......-less cascaded multilevel converter interface based on PMSGs is developed to synthesize a desired high ac sinusoidal output voltage. The benefits of high power and high ac voltage make this structure possible to be applied in the wind power generation. In addition, the bulky transformer could be omitted....... A simulation model of 10 MW variable speed wind turbine based on PMSGs developed in PSCAD/EMTDC is presented. The dynamic performance of grid-connected wind turbine is analyzed. Simulation results shows that the proposed structure may be attractive in wind power generation....

  5. Assessing variability in results in systematic reviews of diagnostic studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Naaktgeboren, Christiana A; Ochodo, Eleanor A; Van Enst, Wynanda A; de Groot, Joris A H; Hooft, Lotty; Leeflang, Mariska M G; Bossuyt, Patrick M; Moons, Karel G M; Reitsma, Johannes B

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To describe approaches used in systematic reviews of diagnostic test accuracy studies for assessing variability in estimates of accuracy between studies and to provide guidance in this area. METHODS: Meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy studies published between May and September

  6. Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, Kenneth R.; Participating AMIP Modelling Groups

    1999-05-01

    Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

  7. Overall control strategy of variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Anca D.; Soerensen, Poul [Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark). Wind Energy Dept.; Iov, Florin; Blaabjerg, Frede [Aalborg Univ. (Denmark). Inst. of Energy Technology

    2004-07-01

    The variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine is today the most widely used concept. The paper presents an overall control system of the variable speed DFIG wind turbine, with focus on the control strategies and algorithms applied at each hierarchical control level of the wind turbine. The present control method is designed for normal continuous operations. The strongest feature of the implemented control method is that it allows the turbine to operate with the optimum power efficiency over a wider range of wind speeds. The variable speed/variable pitch wind turbine with doubly-fed induction generator is implemented in the dynamic power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. Simulation results are performed and analyzed in different normal operating conditions.

  8. Probabilistic Simulation of Multi-Scale Composite Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamis, Christos C.

    2012-01-01

    A methodology is developed to computationally assess the non-deterministic composite response at all composite scales (from micro to structural) due to the uncertainties in the constituent (fiber and matrix) properties, in the fabrication process and in structural variables (primitive variables). The methodology is computationally efficient for simulating the probability distributions of composite behavior, such as material properties, laminate and structural responses. Bi-products of the methodology are probabilistic sensitivities of the composite primitive variables. The methodology has been implemented into the computer codes PICAN (Probabilistic Integrated Composite ANalyzer) and IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). The accuracy and efficiency of this methodology are demonstrated by simulating the uncertainties in composite typical laminates and comparing the results with the Monte Carlo simulation method. Available experimental data of composite laminate behavior at all scales fall within the scatters predicted by PICAN. Multi-scaling is extended to simulate probabilistic thermo-mechanical fatigue and to simulate the probabilistic design of a composite redome in order to illustrate its versatility. Results show that probabilistic fatigue can be simulated for different temperature amplitudes and for different cyclic stress magnitudes. Results also show that laminate configurations can be selected to increase the redome reliability by several orders of magnitude without increasing the laminate thickness--a unique feature of structural composites. The old reference denotes that nothing fundamental has been done since that time.

  9. Simulation in Canadian postgraduate emergency medicine training - a national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Evan; Hall, Andrew Koch; Hagel, Carly; Petrosoniak, Andrew; Dagnone, Jeffrey Damon; Howes, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    Simulation-based education (SBE) is an important training strategy in emergency medicine (EM) postgraduate programs. This study sought to characterize the use of simulation in FRCPC-EM residency programs across Canada. A national survey was administered to residents and knowledgeable program representatives (PRs) at all Canadian FRCPC-EM programs. Survey question themes included simulation program characteristics, the frequency of resident participation, the location and administration of SBE, institutional barriers, interprofessional involvement, content, assessment strategies, and attitudes about SBE. Resident and PR response rates were 63% (203/321) and 100% (16/16), respectively. Residents reported a median of 20 (range 0-150) hours of annual simulation training, with 52% of residents indicating that the time dedicated to simulation training met their needs. PRs reported the frequency of SBE sessions ranging from weekly to every 6 months, with 15 (94%) programs having an established simulation curriculum. Two (13%) of the programs used simulation for resident assessment, although 15 (94%) of PRs indicated that they would be comfortable with simulation-based assessment. The most common PR-identified barriers to administering simulation were a lack of protected faculty time (75%) and a lack of faculty experience with simulation (56%). Interprofessional involvement in simulation was strongly valued by both residents and PRs. SBE is frequently used by Canadian FRCPC-EM residency programs. However, there exists considerable variability in the structure, frequency, and timing of simulation-based activities. As programs transition to competency-based medical education, national organizations and collaborations should consider the variability in how SBE is administered.

  10. Black carbon and West African Monsoon precipitation. Observations and simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, J.; Adams, A.; Zhang, C.; Wang, C.

    2009-01-01

    We have recently investigated large-scale co-variability between aerosol and precipitation and other meteorological variables in the West African Monsoon (WAM) region using long term satellite observations and reanalysis data. In this study we compared the observational results to a global model simulation including only direct radiative forcing of black carbon (BC). From both observations and model simulations we found that in boreal cold seasons anomalously high African aerosols are associated with significant reductions in cloud amount, cloud top height, and surface precipitation. These results suggest that the observed precipitation reduction in the WAM region is caused by radiative effect of BC. The result also suggests that the BC effect on precipitation is nonlinear. (orig.)

  11. Low-Voltage Ride-Through of Variable Speed Wind Turbines with Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deng, Fujin; Chen, Zhe

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a simulation model of a MW-level variable speed wind turbine with a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) and a full-scale converter developed in the simulation tool of PSCAD/EMTDC. The low voltage ride-through (LVRT) capability of the wind turbine is investigated. A new...... control scheme for the wind turbine that keeps it connected to the grid during grid faults is designed and simulated. Its design has special focus on the regulation of the DC-link voltage. Simulation results show the proposed control scheme is an effective measure to improve LVRT capability of variable...

  12. INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GERMÁN LOBOS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

  13. In-cylinder diesel spray combustion simulations using parallel computation: A performance benchmarking study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pang, Kar Mun; Ng, Hoon Kiat; Gan, Suyin

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A performance benchmarking exercise is conducted for diesel combustion simulations. ► The reduced chemical mechanism shows its advantages over base and skeletal models. ► High efficiency and great reduction of CPU runtime are achieved through 4-node solver. ► Increasing ISAT memory from 0.1 to 2 GB reduces the CPU runtime by almost 35%. ► Combustion and soot processes are predicted well with minimal computational cost. - Abstract: In the present study, in-cylinder diesel combustion simulation was performed with parallel processing on an Intel Xeon Quad-Core platform to allow both fluid dynamics and chemical kinetics of the surrogate diesel fuel model to be solved simultaneously on multiple processors. Here, Cartesian Z-Coordinate was selected as the most appropriate partitioning algorithm since it computationally bisects the domain such that the dynamic load associated with fuel particle tracking was evenly distributed during parallel computations. Other variables examined included number of compute nodes, chemistry sizes and in situ adaptive tabulation (ISAT) parameters. Based on the performance benchmarking test conducted, parallel configuration of 4-compute node was found to reduce the computational runtime most efficiently whereby a parallel efficiency of up to 75.4% was achieved. The simulation results also indicated that accuracy level was insensitive to the number of partitions or the partitioning algorithms. The effect of reducing the number of species on computational runtime was observed to be more significant than reducing the number of reactions. Besides, the study showed that an increase in the ISAT maximum storage of up to 2 GB reduced the computational runtime by 50%. Also, the ISAT error tolerance of 10 −3 was chosen to strike a balance between results accuracy and computational runtime. The optimised parameters in parallel processing and ISAT, as well as the use of the in-house reduced chemistry model allowed accurate

  14. Synchronization of chaotic systems involving fractional operators of Liouville-Caputo type with variable-order

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronel-Escamilla, A.; Gómez-Aguilar, J. F.; Torres, L.; Escobar-Jiménez, R. F.; Valtierra-Rodríguez, M.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, we propose a state-observer-based approach to synchronize variable-order fractional (VOF) chaotic systems. In particular, this work is focused on complete synchronization with a so-called unidirectional master-slave topology. The master is described by a dynamical system in state-space representation whereas the slave is described by a state observer. The slave is composed of a master copy and a correction term which in turn is constituted of an estimation error and an appropriate gain that assures the synchronization. The differential equations of the VOF chaotic system are described by the Liouville-Caputo and Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo derivatives. Numerical simulations involving the synchronization of Rössler oscillators, Chua's systems and multi-scrolls are studied. The simulations show that different chaotic behaviors can be obtained if different smooths functions defined in the interval (0 , 1 ] are used as the variable order of the fractional derivatives. Furthermore, simulations show that the VOF chaotic systems can be synchronized.

  15. Lung assist devices influence cardio-energetic parameters: Numerical simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lazzari, C; Quatember, B; Recheis, W; Mayr, M; Demertzis, S; Allasia, G; De Rossi, A; Cavoretto, R; Venturino, E; Genuini, I

    2015-08-01

    We aim at an analysis of the effects mechanical ventilators (MVs) and thoracic artificial lungs (TALs) will have on the cardiovascular system, especially on important quantities, such as left and right ventricular external work (EW), pressure-volume area (PVA) and cardiac mechanical efficiency (CME). Our analyses are based on simulation studies which were carried out by using our CARDIOSIM(©) software simulator. At first, we carried out simulation studies of patients undergoing mechanical ventilation (MV) without a thoracic artificial lung (TAL). Subsequently, we conducted simulation studies of patients who had been provided with a TAL, but did not undergo MV. We aimed at describing the patient's physiological characteristics and their variations with time, such as EW, PVA, CME, cardiac output (CO) and mean pulmonary arterial/venous pressure (PAP/PVP). We were starting with a simulation run under well-defined initial conditions which was followed by simulation runs for a wide range of mean intrathoracic pressure settings. Our simulations of MV without TAL showed that for mean intrathoracic pressure settings from negative (-4 mmHg) to positive (+5 mmHg) values, the left and right ventricular EW and PVA, right ventricular CME and CO decreased, whereas left ventricular CME and the PAP increased. The simulation studies of patients with a TAL, comprised all the usual TAL arrangements, viz. configurations "in series" and in parallel with the natural lung and, moreover, hybrid configurations. The main objective of the simulation studies was, as before, the assessment of the hemodynamic response to the application of a TAL. We could for instance show that, in case of an "in series" configuration, a reduction (an increase) in left (right) ventricular EW and PVA values occurred, whereas the best performance in terms of CO can be achieved in the case of an in parallel configuration.

  16. Overall control strategy of variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, A.D.; Iov, F.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2004-01-01

    The variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine is today the most widely used concept. The paper presents an overall control system of the variable speed DFIG wind turbine, with focus on the control strategies and algorithms applied at each hierarchical control level of the wind tu......-fed induction generator is implemented in the dynamic power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. Simulation results are performed and analyzed in different normal operating conditions....

  17. Prediction of Indian Summer-Monsoon Onset Variability: A Season in Advance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Maheswar; Rao, A Suryachandra; Srivastava, Ankur; Dakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Shameera, K S

    2017-10-27

    Monsoon onset is an inherent transient phenomenon of Indian Summer Monsoon and it was never envisaged that this transience can be predicted at long lead times. Though onset is precipitous, its variability exhibits strong teleconnections with large scale forcing such as ENSO and IOD and hence may be predictable. Despite of the tremendous skill achieved by the state-of-the-art models in predicting such large scale processes, the prediction of monsoon onset variability by the models is still limited to just 2-3 weeks in advance. Using an objective definition of onset in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the skillful prediction of onset variability is feasible under seasonal prediction framework. The better representations/simulations of not only the large scale processes but also the synoptic and intraseasonal features during the evolution of monsoon onset are the comprehensions behind skillful simulation of monsoon onset variability. The changes observed in convection, tropospheric circulation and moisture availability prior to and after the onset are evidenced in model simulations, which resulted in high hit rate of early/delay in monsoon onset in the high resolution model.

  18. Investigation of the Effect of Tool Edge Geometry upon Cutting Variables, Tool Wear and Burr Formation Using Finite Element Simulation — A Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartkulvanich, Partchapol; Al-Zkeri, Ibrahim; Yen, Yung-Chang; Altan, Taylan

    2004-06-01

    This paper summarizes some of the progress made on FEM simulations of metal cutting processes conducted at the Engineering Research Center (ERC/NSM). Presented research focuses on the performance of various cutting edge geometries (hone and chamfer edges) for different tool materials and specifically on: 1) the effect of round and chamfer edge geometries on the cutting variables in machining carbon steels and 2) the effect of the edge hone size upon the flank wear and burr formation behavior in face milling of A356-T6 aluminum alloy. In the second task, an innovative design of edge preparation with varying hone size around the tool nose is also explored using FEM. In order to model three-dimensional conventional turning and face milling with two-dimensional orthogonal cutting simulations, 2D simulation cross-sections consisting of the cutting speed direction and chip flow direction are selected at different locations along the tool nose radius. Then the geometries of the hone and chamfer edges and their associated tool angles as well as uncut chip thickness are determined on these planes and employed in cutting simulations. The chip flow direction on the tool rake face are obtained by examining the wear grooves on the experimental inserts or estimated by using Oxley's approximation theory of oblique cutting. Simulation results are compared with the available experimental results (e.g. cutting forces) both qualitatively and quantitatively.

  19. Reduction of variable-truncation artifacts from beam occlusion during in situ x-ray tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, Leise; Jørgensen, Jakob S.; Frikel, Jürgen; Sporring, Jon

    2017-12-01

    Many in situ x-ray tomography studies require experimental rigs which may partially occlude the beam and cause parts of the projection data to be missing. In a study of fluid flow in porous chalk using a percolation cell with four metal bars drastic streak artifacts arise in the filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction at certain orientations. Projections with non-trivial variable truncation caused by the metal bars are the source of these variable-truncation artifacts. To understand the artifacts a mathematical model of variable-truncation data as a function of metal bar radius and distance to sample is derived and verified numerically and with experimental data. The model accurately describes the arising variable-truncation artifacts across simulated variations of the experimental setup. Three variable-truncation artifact-reduction methods are proposed, all aimed at addressing sinogram discontinuities that are shown to be the source of the streaks. The ‘reduction to limited angle’ (RLA) method simply keeps only non-truncated projections; the ‘detector-directed smoothing’ (DDS) method smooths the discontinuities; while the ‘reflexive boundary condition’ (RBC) method enforces a zero derivative at the discontinuities. Experimental results using both simulated and real data show that the proposed methods effectively reduce variable-truncation artifacts. The RBC method is found to provide the best artifact reduction and preservation of image features using both visual and quantitative assessment. The analysis and artifact-reduction methods are designed in context of FBP reconstruction motivated by computational efficiency practical for large, real synchrotron data. While a specific variable-truncation case is considered, the proposed methods can be applied to general data cut-offs arising in different in situ x-ray tomography experiments.

  20. Study of the therapeutic effects of an advanced hippotherapy simulator in children with cerebral palsy: a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrero, Pablo; Asensio, Angel; García, Elena; Marco, Alvaro; Oliván, Barbara; Ibarz, Alejandro; Gómez-Trullén, Eva M; Casas, Roberto

    2010-04-16

    Although hippotherapy treatment has been demonstrated to have therapeutic effects on children with cerebral palsy, the samples used in research studies have been very small. In the case of hippotherapy simulators, there are no studies that either recommend or advise against their use in the treatment of children with cerebral palsy. The aim of this randomised clinical study is to analyse the therapeutic effects or the contraindications of the use of a commercial hippotherapy simulator on several important factors relating to children with cerebral palsy such as their motor development, balance control in the sitting posture, hip abduction range of motion and electromyographic activity of adductor musculature. The study is a randomised controlled trial. It will be carried out with a sample of 37 children with cerebral palsy divided into two treatment groups. Eligible participants will be randomly allocated to receive either (a) Treatment Group with hippotherapy simulator, maintaining sitting posture, with legs in abduction and rhythmic movement of the simulator or (b) Treatment Group maintaining sitting posture, with legs in abduction and without rhythmic movement of the simulator. all measurements will be carried out by a specially trained blind assessor. To ensure standardization quality of the assessors, an inter-examiner agreement will be worked out at the start of the study. The trial is funded by the Department of Research, Innovation and Development of the Regional Government of Aragon (Official Bulletin of Aragon 23 July 2007), project number PM059/2007. Interest in this project is due to the following factors: Clinical originality (there are no previous studies analysing the effect of simulators on the population group of children with CP, nor any studies using as many variables as this project); Clinical impact (infantile cerebral palsy is a chronic multisystemic condition that affects not only the patient but also the patient's family and their close