WorldWideScience

Sample records for significantly predicted life

  1. Predicting significant torso trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nirula, Ram; Talmor, Daniel; Brasel, Karen

    2005-07-01

    Identification of motor vehicle crash (MVC) characteristics associated with thoracoabdominal injury would advance the development of automatic crash notification systems (ACNS) by improving triage and response times. Our objective was to determine the relationships between MVC characteristics and thoracoabdominal trauma to develop a torso injury probability model. Drivers involved in crashes from 1993 to 2001 within the National Automotive Sampling System were reviewed. Relationships between torso injury and MVC characteristics were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the model to current ACNS models. There were a total of 56,466 drivers. Age, ejection, braking, avoidance, velocity, restraints, passenger-side impact, rollover, and vehicle weight and type were associated with injury (p < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (83.9) was significantly greater than current ACNS models. We have developed a thoracoabdominal injury probability model that may improve patient triage when used with ACNS.

  2. Programming Useful Life Prediction (PULP), Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Accurately predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) provides significant benefits—it increases safety and reduces financial and labor resource requirements. Relying on...

  3. Fatigue life prediction in composites

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Huston, RJ

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Because of the relatively large number of possible failure mechanisms in fibre reinforced composite materials, the prediction of fatigue life in a component is not a simple process. Several mathematical and statistical models have been proposed...

  4. The significance of plant life management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myrddin Davies, L.

    2000-01-01

    The paper carries a definition and describes Plant life and plant life management. It also describes the procedures and defines the categorisation of components giving examples and referring to key components. Examples of 'good practice and guidance' are given for the establishment and implementation of plant life management programmes. A description is given of recent and current IAEA activities under the aegis of the International Working Group on Nuclear Power Plant Life Management (IWG-LMNPP). Some of the future activities in this field are described. (author)

  5. Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaretsky, Erwin V.

    2016-01-01

    A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg-Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. (The use of ISO 281:2007 with a fatigue limit in these calculations would result in a bearing life approaching infinity.) Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application. Rules had been developed to distinguish and compare predicted lives with those actually obtained. Based upon field and test results of 51 ball and roller bearing sets, 98 percent of these bearing sets had acceptable

  6. The Real World Significance of Performance Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardos, Zachary A.; Wang, Qing Yang; Trivedi, Shubhendu

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, the educational data mining and user modeling communities have been aggressively introducing models for predicting student performance on external measures such as standardized tests as well as within-tutor performance. While these models have brought statistically reliable improvement to performance prediction, the real world…

  7. Synthetic biology and the moral significance of artificial life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    , Powell and Savulescu's definition of artificial life does not capture all core projects of synthetic biology or the ethical concerns that have been voiced, and their definition of moral significance fails to take into account the possibility that creating artificial life is conditionally acceptable......I discuss the moral significance of artificial life within synthetic biology via a discussion of Douglas, Powell and Savulescu's paper 'Is the creation of artificial life morally significant’. I argue that the definitions of 'artificial life’ and of 'moral significance’ are too narrow. Douglas...

  8. Modeling of Complex Life Cycle Prediction Based on Cell Division

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fucheng Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective fault diagnosis and reasonable life expectancy are of great significance and practical engineering value for the safety, reliability, and maintenance cost of equipment and working environment. At present, the life prediction methods of the equipment are equipment life prediction based on condition monitoring, combined forecasting model, and driven data. Most of them need to be based on a large amount of data to achieve the problem. For this issue, we propose learning from the mechanism of cell division in the organism. We have established a moderate complexity of life prediction model across studying the complex multifactor correlation life model. In this paper, we model the life prediction of cell division. Experiments show that our model can effectively simulate the state of cell division. Through the model of reference, we will use it for the equipment of the complex life prediction.

  9. Service life prediction and cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis describes and discusses the applicability of a systematic methodology recommended by CIB W80/RILEM-PSL for sevice life prediction. The report describes the most important inherent and environmental factors affecting the service life of structures of cementitious composites....... On the basis of this discription of factors and experience from a test programme described in SBI Report 222, Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites, the applicabillity of the CIB/RILEM methodology is discussed....

  10. Early Adolescent Affect Predicts Later Life Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansky, Jessica; Allen, Joseph P; Diener, Ed

    2016-07-01

    Subjective well-being as a predictor for later behavior and health has highlighted its relationship to health, work performance, and social relationships. However, the majority of such studies neglect the developmental nature of well-being in contributing to important changes across the transition to adulthood. To examine the potential role of subjective well-being as a long-term predictor of critical life outcomes, we examined indicators of positive and negative affect at age 14 as predictors of relationship, adjustment, self-worth, and career outcomes a decade later at ages 23 to 25, controlling for family income and gender. We utilised multi-informant methods including reports from the target participant, close friends, and romantic partners in a demographically diverse community sample of 184 participants. Early adolescent positive affect predicted fewer relationship problems (less self-reported and partner-reported conflict, and greater friendship attachment as rated by close peers) and healthy adjustment to adulthood (lower levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness). It also predicted positive work functioning (higher levels of career satisfaction and job competence) and increased self-worth. Negative affect did not significantly predict any of these important life outcomes. In addition to predicting desirable mean levels of later outcomes, early positive affect predicted beneficial changes across time in many outcomes. The findings extend early research on the beneficial outcomes of subjective well-being by having an earlier assessment of well-being, including informant reports in measuring a large variety of outcome variables, and by extending the findings to a lower socioeconomic group of a diverse and younger sample. The results highlight the importance of considering positive affect as an important component of subjective well-being distinct from negative affect. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  11. The significance of end-of-life dreams and visions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Pei; Wright, Scott; Depner, Rachel; Luczkiewicz, Debra

    End-of-life dreams and visions (ELDVs) have been well documented through history and across cultures. They appear to affect both dying people and their families deeply, and may be a source of profound meaning and comfort. The aims of the study were to; document hospice patients' ELDV experiences over time using a daily survey, examine the content and subjective significance of ELDVs, and relate the prevalence, content and significance of end-of-life experiences over time until death. Patients (n = 66) in a hospice inpatient unit, between January 2011 and July 2012, were interviewed daily. The interview contained closed questions about the content, frequency and level of comfort or distress of dreams and visions. Most participants reported at least one dream or vision and almost half of the dreams and visions occurred during sleep. Nearly all patients reported that their experience felt real. The most common content featured deceased friends and relatives, followed by living friends and relatives. As participants approached death, comforting dreams and visions of the deceased became more prevalent. End-of-life dreams and visions are commonly experienced during dying. These dreams and visions may be a profound source of potential meaning and comfort to the dying.

  12. Exoplanets, Exo-Solar Life, and Human Significance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiseman, Jennifer

    2011-01-01

    With the recent detection of over 500 extrasolar planets, the existence of "other worlds", perhaps even other Earths, is no longer in the realm of science fiction. The study of exoplanets rapidly moved from an activity on the fringe of astronomy to one of the highest priorities of the world's astronomical programs. Actual images of extrasolar planets were revealed over the past two years for the first time. NASA's Hubble Space Telescope is already characterizing the atmospheres of Jupiter-like planets, in other systems. And the recent launch of the NASA Kepler space telescope is enabling the first statistical assessment of how common solar systems like our own really are. As we begin to characterize these "other worlds" and assess their habitability, the question of the significance and uniqueness of life on Earth will impact our society as never before. I will provide a comprehensive overview of the techniques and status of exoplanet detection, followed by reflections as to the societal impact of finding out that Earths are common, or rare. Will finding other potentially habitable planets create another "Copernican Revolution"? Will perceptions of the significance of life on Earth change when we find other Earth-like planets? I will discuss the plans of the scientific community for future telescopes that will be abe to survey our solar neighborhood for Earth-like planets, study their atmospheres, and search for biological signs of life.

  13. Service life prediction of exterior plastics vision for the future

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Jon; Chapin, J

    2015-01-01

    This book defines the current state-of-the-art for predicting the lifetime of plastics exposed to weather and outlines future research needed to advance this important field of study. Coverage includes progress in developing new science and test methods to determine how materials respond to weather exposure. This book is ideal for researchers and professionals working in the field of service life prediction. This book also: Examines numerous consensus standards that affect commercial products allowing readers to see the future of standards related to service life prediction Provides the scientific foundation for the latest commercially viable instruments Presents groundbreaking research, including the blueprint of a new test method that will significantly shorten the service life prediction process time Covers two of the latest verified predictive models, which demonstrate realized-potential to transform the field

  14. Early signs that predict later haemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engür, Defne; Deveci, Murat; Türkmen, Münevver K

    2016-03-01

    Our aim was to determine the optimal cut-off values, sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic power of 12 echocardiographic parameters on the second day of life to predict subsequent ductal patency. We evaluated preterm infants, born at ⩽32 weeks of gestation, starting on their second day of life, and they were evaluated every other day until ductal closure or until there were clinical signs of re-opening. We measured transductal diameter; pulmonary arterial diastolic flow; retrograde aortic diastolic flow; pulsatility index of the left pulmonary artery and descending aorta; left atrium and ventricle/aortic root ratio; left ventricular output; left ventricular flow velocity time integral; mitral early/late diastolic flow; and superior caval vein diameter and flow as well as performed receiver operating curve analysis. Transductal diameter (>1.5 mm); pulmonary arterial diastolic flow (>25.6 cm/second); presence of retrograde aortic diastolic flow; ductal diameter by body weight (>1.07 mm/kg); left pulmonary arterial pulsatility index (⩽0.71); and left ventricle to aortic root ratio (>2.2) displayed high sensitivity and specificity (p0.9). Parameters with moderate sensitivity and specificity were as follows: left atrial to aortic root ratio; left ventricular output; left ventricular flow velocity time integral; and mitral early/late diastolic flow ratio (p0.05) had low diagnostic value. Left pulmonary arterial pulsatility index, left ventricle/aortic root ratio, and ductal diameter by body weight are useful adjuncts offering a broader outlook for predicting ductal patency.

  15. Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D

    2012-01-01

    The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

  16. Prediction of thermal fatigue life of ceramics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamiya, N.; Kamigaito, O.

    1979-01-01

    On the assumption that the thermal fatigue life of ceramics is determined mainly by the duration over which a crack reaches a small critical length, a prediction of the life was made by application of fracture mechanics to ceramics based on subcritical crack growth. Approximated formulae were derived. Experimental examination showed that the formulae proved to be valid for glass, sintered mullite under moderate shock severity, and zirconia. Data given by other authors also prove their validity. The deviation of the life from the formulae for sintered mullite under a thermal shock of extremely low severty, suggests that a certain mechanism, for example strengthening, is needed to understand the life of the sintered mullite. (author)

  17. Survey on damage mechanics models for fatigue life prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silitonga, S.; Maljaars, J.; Soetens, F.; Snijder, H.H.

    2013-01-01

    Engineering methods to predict the fatigue life of structures have been available since the beginning of the 20th century. However, a practical problem arises from complex loading conditions and a significant concern is the accuracy of the methods under variable amplitude loading. This paper

  18. Predicting life-history adaptations to pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maltby, L. [Univ. of Sheffield (United Kingdom). Dept. of Animal and Plant Sciences

    1995-12-31

    Animals may adapt to pollutant stress so that individuals from polluted environments are less susceptible than those from unpolluted environments. In addition to such direct adaptations, animals may respond to pollutant stress by life-history modifications; so-called indirect adaptations. This paper will demonstrate how, by combining life-history theory and toxicological data, it is possible to predict stress-induced alterations in reproductive output and offspring size. Pollutant-induced alterations in age-specific survival in favor of adults and reductions in juvenile growth, conditions are predicted to select for reduced investment in reproduction and the allocation of this investment into fewer, larger offspring. Field observations on the freshwater crustaceans, Asellus aquaticus and Gammarus pulex, support these predictions. Females from metal-polluted sites had lower investment in reproduction and produced larger offspring than females of the same species from unpolluted sites. Moreover, interpopulation differences in reproductive biology persisted in laboratory cultures indicating that they had a genetic basis and were therefore due to adaptation rather than acclimation. The general applicability of this approach will be considered.

  19. Exploring the significance of human mobility patterns in social link prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alharbi, Basma Mohammed

    2014-01-01

    Link prediction is a fundamental task in social networks. Recently, emphasis has been placed on forecasting new social ties using user mobility patterns, e.g., investigating physical and semantic co-locations for new proximity measure. This paper explores the effect of in-depth mobility patterns. Specifically, we study individuals\\' movement behavior, and quantify mobility on the basis of trip frequency, travel purpose and transportation mode. Our hybrid link prediction model is composed of two modules. The first module extracts mobility patterns, including travel purpose and mode, from raw trajectory data. The second module employs the extracted patterns for link prediction. We evaluate our method on two real data sets, GeoLife [15] and Reality Mining [5]. Experimental results show that our hybrid model significantly improves the accuracy of social link prediction, when comparing to primary topology-based solutions. Copyright 2014 ACM.

  20. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 1, Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuccio, J.C.; Brehm, P.; Fang, H.T. [Allied-Signal Aerospace Co., Phoenix, AZ (United States). Garrett Engine Div.] [and others

    1995-03-01

    Emphasis of this program is to develop and demonstrate ceramics life prediction methods, including fast fracture, stress rupture, creep, oxidation, and nondestructive evaluation. Significant advancements were made in these methods and their predictive capabilities successfully demonstrated.

  1. Decomposition Technique for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor); Saxena, Abhinav (Inventor); Celaya, Jose R. (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    The prognostic tool disclosed here decomposes the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component or sub-system into two separate regression problems: the feature-to-damage mapping and the operational conditions-to-damage-rate mapping. These maps are initially generated in off-line mode. One or more regression algorithms are used to generate each of these maps from measurements (and features derived from these), operational conditions, and ground truth information. This decomposition technique allows for the explicit quantification and management of different sources of uncertainty present in the process. Next, the maps are used in an on-line mode where run-time data (sensor measurements and operational conditions) are used in conjunction with the maps generated in off-line mode to estimate both current damage state as well as future damage accumulation. Remaining life is computed by subtracting the instance when the extrapolated damage reaches the failure threshold from the instance when the prediction is made.

  2. Predictive Maintenance (PdM) Centralization for Significant Energy Savings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Dale

    2010-09-15

    Cost effective predictive maintenance (PdM) technologies and basic energy calculations can mine energy savings form processes or maintenance activities. Centralizing and packaging this information correctly empowers facility maintenance and reliability professionals to build financial justification and support for strategies and personnel to weather global economic downturns and competition. Attendees will learn how to: Systematically build a 'pilot project' for applying PdM and tracking systems; Break down a typical electrical bill to calculate energy savings; Use return on investment (ROI) calculations to identify the best and highest value options, strategies and tips for substantiating your energy reduction maintenance strategies.

  3. The Health Significance of Positive Emotions in Adulthood and Later Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Anthony D; Mroczek, Daniel K; Riffin, Catherine

    2011-08-01

    A growing body of literature supports a link between positive emotions and health in older adults. In this article, we review evidence of the effects of positive emotions on downstream biological processes and meaningful clinical endpoints, such as adult morbidity and mortality. We then present relevant predictions from lifespan theories that suggest changes in cognition and motivation may play an important role in explaining how positive emotions are well maintained in old age, despite pervasive declines in cognitive processes. We conclude by discussing how the application of psychological theory can inform greater understanding of the adaptive significance of positive emotions in adulthood and later life.

  4. Computational thermofracture mechanics and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu Tairan

    1992-01-01

    This paper will present computational techniques used for the prediction of the thermofracture behaviour of structures subject to either monotonic or cyclic combined thermal and mechanical loadings. Two specific areas will be dealt with in the paper. (1) The Time-invariant thermofracture of leaking pipelines with non-uniform temperature fields; in this case, the induced non-uniform temperature fields near leaking cracks have shown to be significant. The severity of these temperature fields on the thermofracture behaviour of the pipeline will be demonstrated by a numerical example. (2) Thermomechanical creep fracture of structures: Recent developments, including those of the author's own work, on cyclic creep-fracture using damage theory will be presented. Long 'hold' and 'dwell' times, which occur in the actual operations of nuclear power plant components have been shown to have a significant effect on the overall creep-fracture behaviour of the material. Constitutive laws, which include most of these effects, have been incorporated into the existing TEPSAC code for the prediction of crack growth in solids under cyclic creep loadings. The effectiveness of using the damage parameters as fracture criteria, and the presence of plastic deformation in the overall results will be assessed. (orig.)

  5. Predicting the residual life of plant equipment - Why worry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaske, C.E.

    1985-01-01

    Predicting the residual life of plant equipment that has been in service for 20 to 30 years or more is a major concern of many industries. This paper reviews the reasons for increased concern for residual-life assessment and the general procedures used in performing such assessments. Some examples and case histories illustrating procedures for assessing remaining service life are discussed. Areas where developments are needed to improve the technology for remaining-life estimation are pointed out. Then, some of the critical issues involved in residual-life assessment are identified. Finally, the future role of residual-life prediction is addressed

  6. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1995-10-01

    Most of the studies on the low cycle fatigue life prediction have been reported under isothermal conditions where the deformation of the material is strain dependent. In the development of gas turbines, components such as blades and vanes are exposed to temperature variations in addition to strain cycling. As a result, the deformation process becomes temperature and strain dependent. Therefore, the life of the component becomes sensitive to temperature-strain cycling which produces a process known as {open_quotes}thermomechanical fatigue, or TMF{close_quotes}. The TMF fatigue failure phenomenon has been modeled using conventional fatigue life prediction methods, which are not sufficiently accurate to quantitatively establish an allowable design procedure. To add to the complexity of TMF life prediction, blade and vane substrates are normally coated with aluminide, overlay or thermal barrier type coatings (TBC) where the durability of the component is dominated by the coating/substrate constitutive response and by the fatigue behavior of the coating. A number of issues arise from TMF depending on the type of temperature/strain phase cycle: (1) time-dependent inelastic behavior can significantly affect the stress response. For example, creep relaxation during a tensile or compressive loading at elevated temperatures leads to a progressive increase in the mean stress level under cyclic loading. (2) the mismatch in elastic and thermal expansion properties between the coating and the substrate can lead to significant deviations in the coating stress levels due to changes in the elastic modulii. (3) the {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} corrosion resistance coatings applied to the substrate may act as primary crack initiation sites. Crack initiation in the coating is a function of the coating composition, its mechanical properties, creep relaxation behavior, thermal strain range and the strain/temperature phase relationship.

  7. Life prediction technology of structural materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagata, Norio

    1992-01-01

    There is empirically the time limit of use in all industrial plants and components. By defining the loss of functions as the expiration of life, if the forecast of life time or residual life of plants and components can be done, a very useful means becomes available for safety and economical efficiency. The life of plants is controlled by the occurrence and extension of defects in materials, and by the life of the material which is placed under most severe condition. Such severe condition is the environment of use itself with high temperature, corrosive environment, load, vibration and so on. The forecast of material life is to quantitatively grasp the damage behavior of materials under such condition, and to carry out the time control of the functions of plants by defect control. The time dependence of material damage such as fatigue damage, creep damage and corrosion damage is discussed. The forecast of material life by empirical knowledge and theoretical inference and the forecast of residual life are explained. Finally, the forecast of the life time of light water reactors is described as those constructed in initial period approach their design life. (K.I.)

  8. Personality predicts recurrence of late-life depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steunenberg, Bas; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Deeg, Dorly J H; Kerkhof, Ad J F M

    2010-06-01

    To examine the association of personality with recurrence of depression in later life. A subsample of 91 subjects from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA; baseline sample size n=3107; aged > or = 55 years) depressed at baseline, who had recovered in the course of three years (first follow-up cycle) was identified. 41 (45%) respondents experienced a recurrence during the subsequent six years. The influences of personality and late life stress (demographic factors, health and social factors) on recurrence were investigated prospectively. Recurrence of depression was associated with a high level of neuroticism and low level of mastery, residual depressive symptoms at time of recovery, female gender, pain complaints and feelings of loneliness. In multivariable analysis entering all predictors significant in single variable analysis, residual depressive symptoms and lack of mastery remained significantly associated with recurrence. In predicting the recurrence of depression in later life, the direct effects of personality remain important and comparable in strength with other late life stressors related to recurrence. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Thermomechanical fatigue life prediction for several solders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Shengmin

    Since solder connections operate at high homologous temperature, solders are high temperature materials. This feature makes their mechanical behavior and fatigue phenomena unique. Based on experimental findings, a physical damage mechanism is introduced for solders. The mechanism views the damage process as a series of independent local damage events characterized by the failure of individual grains, while the structural damage is the eventual percolation result of such local events. Fine's dislocation energy density concept and Mura's microcrack initiation theory are adopted to derive the fatigue formula for an individual grain. A physical damage metric is introduced to describe the material with damage. A unified creep and plasticity constitutive model is adopted to simulate the mechanical behavior of solders. The model is cast into a continuum damage mechanics framework to simulate material with damage. The model gives good agreement with the experimental results of 96.5Pb-3.5Sn and 96.5Sn-3.5Ag solders under uniaxial strain-controlled cyclic loading. The model is convenient for implementation into commercial computational packages. Also presented is a fatigue theory with its failure criterion for solders based on physical damage mechanism. By introducing grain orientation into the fatigue formula, an m-N curve (m is Schmid factor) at constant loading condition is suggested for fatigue of grains with different orientations. A solder structure is defined as fatigued when the damage metric reaches a critical threshold, since at this threshold the failed grains may form a cluster and percolate through the structure according to percolation theory. Fatigue data of 96.5Pb-3.5Sn solder bulk specimens under various uniaxial tension tests were analyzed. Results show that the theory gives consistent predictions under broad conditions, while inelastic strain theory does not. The theory is anisotropic with no size limitation to its application, which could be suitable for

  10. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Sinatra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are, to a large extent, predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two datasets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can, to some extent, be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability, negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions that contain the information to best predict an individual’s subsequent action are negative, such as attacks or enemy markings, while the positive actions of friendship marking, trade and communication contain the least amount of predictive information. These observations show that predicting behavioral actions requires less information than predicting the mobility patterns of humans for which the additional knowledge of past visited locations is crucial and that the type and sign of a social relation has an essential impact on the ability to determine future behavior.

  11. Residual life of technical systems; diagnosis, prediction and life extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinertsen, Rune

    1996-01-01

    The paper presents and discusses research related to residual life of non-repairable and repairable technical systems. Diagnosis of systems and extension of residual life of technical systems are also presented and discussed. This paper concludes that research published describing determination and extension of residual life as well as methods for diagnosis of non-repairable and repairable technical systems, is somewhat limited. Many papers have a rather pragmatic approach. The authors only describe special cases from their own plant and do not provide any explanation of a more academical nature. The other papers are mainly describing very specific applications of statistical models, leaving the more general case out of consideration. One of the main results of this paper is to point out these facts, and thereby identify the need for future research in this area

  12. Predicting Battery Life for Electric UAVs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a novel battery health management technology for the new generation of electric unmanned aerial vehicles powered by long-life, high-density,...

  13. Life Prediction Methodologies for Aerospace Materials

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ashbaugh, N. E; Brockman, R. A; Buchanan, D. J; Hartman, G. A; Huston, A. L; Li, K; Porter, W. J

    2004-01-01

    Superalloys IN-100, Ren 88DT, Waspaloy, and titanium alloys were investigated. For life-limiting responses in superalloys, highly localized stress-deformation behaviors associated with both typical and unusual defects were developed...

  14. Actual service life prediction of building components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aagaard, Niels-Jørgen; Brandt, Erik; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, sustainability and life cycle cost in the construction industry have been given great attention in many countries due to the heavy climatic and environmental impact from this sector. In Denmark, a sustainability certification scheme for buildings has been developed including....... Finally, it is discussed how to adjust the model for practical purposes, and a scheme for actual service life for selected building components important for analysis of sustainability is linked. The schemes are now being implemented as basis for sustainability certification of new buildings in Denmark....

  15. Life prediction of Ni-base superalloy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    mean stress exponent, n, and the mean activation energy for creep were calculated from the experimental results. The accelerated creep life of the alloy was evaluated by using iso-stress parametric equations and Monkman–Grant method. Keywords. ... This alloy is age-hardenable by a fine dispersion of γ par- ticles, which ...

  16. Synthetic Biology and the Moral Significance of Artificial Life: A Reply to Douglas, Powell and Savulescu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Andreas

    2016-06-01

    I discuss the moral significance of artificial life within synthetic biology via a discussion of Douglas, Powell and Savulescu's paper 'Is the creation of artificial life morally significant'. I argue that the definitions of 'artificial life' and of 'moral significance' are too narrow. Douglas, Powell and Savulescu's definition of artificial life does not capture all core projects of synthetic biology or the ethical concerns that have been voiced, and their definition of moral significance fails to take into account the possibility that creating artificial life is conditionally acceptable. Finally, I show how several important objections to synthetic biology are plausibly understood as arguing that creating artificial life in a wide sense is only conditionally acceptable. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Concrete component aging and its significance relative to life extension of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naus, D.J.

    1986-09-01

    The objectives of this study are to (1) expand upon the work that was initiated in the first two Electric Power Research Institute studies relative to longevity and life extension considerations of safety-related concrete components in light-water reactor (LWR) facilities and (2) provide background that will logically lead to subsequent development of a methodology for assessing and predicting the effects of aging on the performance of concrete-based materials and components. These objectives are consistent with Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) Program goals: (1) to identify and characterize aging and service wear effects that, if unchecked, could cause degradation of structures, components, and systems and, thereby, impair plant safety; (2) to identify methods of inspection, surveillance, and monitoring or of evaluating residual life of structures, components, and systems that will ensure timely detection of significant aging effects before loss of safety function; and (3) to evaluate the effectiveness of storage, maintenance, repair, and replacement practices in mitigating the rate and extent of degradation caused by aging and service wear

  18. Fatigue crack growth and life prediction under mixed-mode loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajith, S.; Murthy, K. S. R. K.; Robi, P. S.

    2018-04-01

    Fatigue crack growth life as a function of crack length is essential for the prevention of catastrophic failures from damage tolerance perspective. In damage tolerance design approach, principles of fracture mechanics are usually applied to predict the fatigue life of structural components. Numerical prediction of crack growth versus number of cycles is essential in damage tolerance design. For cracks under mixed mode I/II loading, modified Paris law (d/a d N =C (ΔKe q ) m ) along with different equivalent stress intensity factor (ΔKeq) model is used for fatigue crack growth rate prediction. There are a large number of ΔKeq models available for the mixed mode I/II loading, the selection of proper ΔKeq model has significant impact on fatigue life prediction. In the present investigation, the performance of ΔKeq models in fatigue life prediction is compared with respect to the experimental findings as there are no guidelines/suggestions available on the selection of these models for accurate and/or conservative predictions of fatigue life. Within the limitations of availability of experimental data and currently available numerical simulation techniques, the results of present study attempt to outline models that would provide accurate and conservative life predictions. Such a study aid the numerical analysts or engineers in the proper selection of the model for numerical simulation of the fatigue life. Moreover, the present investigation also suggests a procedure to enhance the accuracy of life prediction using Paris law.

  19. Predicting product life cycle using fuzzy neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammadi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important tasks of science in different fields is to find the relationships among various phenomena in order to predict future. Production and service organizations are not exceptions and they should predict future to survive. Predicting the life cycle of the organization's products is one of the most important prediction cases in an organization. Predicting the product life cycle provides an opportunity to identify the product position and help to get a better insight about competitors. This paper deals with the predictability of the product life cycle with Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS. The Population of this study was Pegah Fars products and the sample was this company's cheese products. In this regard, this paper attempts to model and predict the product life cycle of cheese products in Pegah Fars Company. In this due, a designed questionnaire was distributed among some experts, distributors and retailers and seven independent variables were selected. In this survey, ANFIS sales forecasting technique was employed and MATLAB software was used for data analysis. The results confirmed ANFIS as a good method to predict the product life cycle.

  20. Life Prediction on a T700 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Cylinder with Limited Accelerated Life Testing Data

    OpenAIRE

    Ma Xiaobing; Zhang Yongbo

    2015-01-01

    An accelerated life testing investigation was conducted on a composite cylinder that consists of aluminum alloy and T700 carbon fiber. The ultimate failure stress predictions of cylinders were obtained by the mixing rule and verified by the blasting static pressure method. Based on the stress prediction of cylinder under working conditions, the constant stress accelerated life test of the cylinder was designed. However, the failure data cannot be sufficiently obtained by the accelerated life ...

  1. Application of structural reliability and risk assessment to life prediction and life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.A.; Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    There can be numerous uncertainties involved in performing component life assessments. In addition, sufficient data may be unavailable to make a useful life prediction. Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) is primarily an analytical methodology or tool that quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the structural life of plant components and can address the lack of data in component life prediction. As a prelude to discussing the technical aspects of SRRA, a brief review of general component life prediction methods is first made so as to better develop an understanding of the role of SRRA in such evaluations. SRRA is then presented as it is applied in component life evaluations with example applications being discussed for both nuclear and non-nuclear components

  2. Neural Network Modeling to Predict Shelf Life of Greenhouse Lettuce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Chin Lin

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouse-grown butter lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. can potentially be stored for 21 days at constant 0°C. When storage temperature was increased to 5°C or 10°C, shelf life was shortened to 14 or 10 days, respectively, in our previous observations. Also, commercial shelf life of 7 to 10 days is common, due to postharvest temperature fluctuations. The objective of this study was to establish neural network (NN models to predict the remaining shelf life (RSL under fluctuating postharvest temperatures. A box of 12 - 24 lettuce heads constituted a sample unit. The end of the shelf life of each head was determined when it showed initial signs of decay or yellowing. Air temperatures inside a shipping box were recorded. Daily average temperatures in storage and averaged shelf life of each box were used as inputs, and the RSL was modeled as an output. An R2 of 0.57 could be observed when a simple NN structure was employed. Since the "future" (or remaining storage temperatures were unavailable at the time of making a prediction, a second NN model was introduced to accommodate a range of future temperatures and associated shelf lives. Using such 2-stage NN models, an R2 of 0.61 could be achieved for predicting RSL. This study indicated that NN modeling has potential for cold chain quality control and shelf life prediction.

  3. Simulation work of fatigue life prediction of rubber automotive components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samad, M S A; Ali, Aidy

    2010-01-01

    The usage of rubbers has always been so important, especially in automotive industries. Rubbers have a hyper elastic behaviour which is the ability to withstand very large strain without failure. The normal applications for rubbers are used for shock absorption, sound isolation and mounting. In this study, the predictions of fatigue life of an engine mount of rubber automotive components were presented. The finite element analysis was performed to predict the critical part and the strain output were incorporated into fatigue model for prediction. The predicted result shows agreement in term of failure location of rubber mount.

  4. Thermomechanical fatigue life prediction of high temperature components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seifert, Thomas; Hartrott, Philipp von; Riedel, Hermann; Siegele, Dieter [Fraunhofer-Inst. fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    The aim of the work described in this paper is to provide a computational method for fatigue life prediction of high temperature components, in which the time and temperature dependent fatigue crack growth is a relevant damage mechanism. The fatigue life prediction is based on a law for microcrack growth and a fracture mechanics estimate of the cyclic crack tip opening displacement. In addition, a powerful model for nonisothermal cyclic plasticity is employed, and an efficient laboratory test procedure is proposed for the determination of the model parameters. The models are efficiently implemented into finite element programs and are used to predict the fatigue life of a cast iron exhaust manifold and a notch in the perimeter of a turbine rotor made of a ferritic/martensitic 10%-chromium steel. (orig.)

  5. Fatigue crack initiation and growth life prediction with statistical consideration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, J.D.; Choi, S.H.; Kwak, S.G.; Chun, K.O.

    1991-01-01

    Life prediction or residual life prediction of structures or machines is one of the most strongly world wide needed problems as requirement in the stage of slowly developing economy which comes after rapidly and highly developing stage. For the purpose of statistical life prediction, fatigue test was conducted under the 3 stress levels, and for each stress level, 20 specimens are used. The statistical properties of the crack growth parameter m and C in the fatigue crack growth law of da/dN = C(ΔK) m , and the relationship between m and C, and the statistical distribution pattern of fatigue crack initiation, growth and fracture lives can be obtained by experimental results

  6. Fracture Mechanics Prediction of Fatigue Life of Aluminum Highway Bridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rom, Søren; Agerskov, Henning

    2015-01-01

    Fracture mechanics prediction of the fatigue life of aluminum highway bridges under random loading is studied. The fatigue life of welded joints has been determined from fracture mechanics analyses and the results obtained have been compared with results from experimental investigations. The fati......Fracture mechanics prediction of the fatigue life of aluminum highway bridges under random loading is studied. The fatigue life of welded joints has been determined from fracture mechanics analyses and the results obtained have been compared with results from experimental investigations...... against fatigue in aluminum bridges, may give results which are unconservative. Furthermore, it was in both investigations found that the validity of the results obtained from Miner's rule will depend on the distribution of the load history in tension and compression....

  7. Fatigue life prediction of oil ducts under service loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meggiolaro, Marco A.; Castro, Jaime T.P. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2003-07-01

    A methodology to calculate the residual initiation and propagation lives of fatigue cracks in oil pipelines with corrosion-like defects is proposed and applied to predict the residual life of an old duct made of API 5L Gr. B steel, in service for more than 40 years. Since its inauguration, this pipeline has carried several heated products under variable temperatures and pressures. The calculated (nominal) service stresses are very high, due to thermal loads that induce significant bending in curved parts of the duct, with peaks close to the yield strength of the steel. The elastic- plastic fatigue damage at a notch or a corrosion pit root is calculated using the {epsilon}N method, and the effects of surface semi-elliptical cracks in its internal (or external) wall is studied considering appropriate stress intensity factor expressions and the actual service loads. In the presence of surface flaws associated to stress concentration factors of the order of three, a fatigue crack likely will initiate in the pipeline. However, if these surface cracks are small compared to the duct wall thickness, their predicted propagation rates are very low. (author)

  8. Life Prediction on a T700 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Cylinder with Limited Accelerated Life Testing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Xiaobing

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An accelerated life testing investigation was conducted on a composite cylinder that consists of aluminum alloy and T700 carbon fiber. The ultimate failure stress predictions of cylinders were obtained by the mixing rule and verified by the blasting static pressure method. Based on the stress prediction of cylinder under working conditions, the constant stress accelerated life test of the cylinder was designed. However, the failure data cannot be sufficiently obtained by the accelerated life test due to the time limitation. Therefore, most of the data presented to be high censored in high stress level and zero-failure data in low stress level. When using the traditional method for rupture life prediction, the results showed to be of lower confidence. In this study, the consistency of failure mechanism for carbon fiber and cylinder was analyzed firstly. According to the analysis result, the statistical test information of carbon fiber could be utilized for the accelerated model constitution. Then, rupture life prediction method for cylinder was proposed based on the accelerated life test data and carbon fiber test data. In this way, the life prediction accuracy of cylinder could be improved obviously, and the results showed that the accuracy of this method increased by 35%.

  9. A New Approach to Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Nucleation and Growth (Preprint)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McClung, R. C; Francis, W. L; Hudak, S. J

    2006-01-01

    Prediction of total fatigue life in components is often performed by summing "initiation" and "propagation" life phases, where initiation life is based on stress-life or strain-life methods calibrated...

  10. Innovative predictive maintenance concepts to improve life cycle management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinga, Tiedo

    2014-01-01

    For naval systems with typically long service lives, high sustainment costs and strict availability requirements, an effective and efficient life cycle management process is very important. In this paper four approaches are discussed to improve that process: physics of failure based predictive

  11. The life prediction study of Rokkasho reprocessing plant materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiuchi, K.; Yano, M.; Takizawa, M.; Shibata, S.

    1998-01-01

    The life prediction study of major equipment materials used in heavily corrosive nitric acid solutions of the RRP was carried out. The nitric acid recovery made of type 304ULC austenitic steel and the dissolver made of type 705 metallic zirconium are selected on the present study. This study is composed of major three programs, namely, the mock-up tests by small-sized equipments simulated to the practical design, laboratory tests for examining corrosion controlling factors by small specimens and to establish the data base system for the life prediction. Important parameters on this study was extracted with analyzing the past data of the life prediction on the Tokai reprocessing equipments. The mock-ups design was made by considering the quantitative evaluation of the most important parts on objective equipments, namely, heat conducting tubes in an acid recovery evaporator and a thermal jacket in a dissolver. From pre-examinations, the effects of radioactive species, nitric acid solution chemistry, the corrosion mechanisms were elucidated. Mock-up testing conditions corrosion monitoring methods and a data base concept for the the life prediction were selected from pre-examination data by referencing the plant operation planning. (author)

  12. Shelf Life Prediction for Canned Gudeg using Accelerated Shelf Life Testing (ASLT) Based on Arrhenius Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhayati, R.; Rahayu NH, E.; Susanto, A.; Khasanah, Y.

    2017-04-01

    Gudeg is traditional food from Yogyakarta. It is consist of jackfruit, chicken, egg and coconut milk. Gudeg generally have a short shelf life. Canning or commercial sterilization is one way to extend the shelf life of gudeg. This aims of this research is to predict the shelf life of Andrawinaloka canned gudeg with Accelerated Shelf Life Test methods, Arrhenius model. Canned gudeg stored at three different temperature, there are 37, 50 and 60°C for two months. Measuring the number of Thio Barbituric Acid (TBA), as a critical aspect, were tested every 7 days. Arrhenius model approach is done with the equation order 0 and order 1. The analysis showed that the equation of order 0 can be used as an approach to estimating the shelf life of canned gudeg. The storage of Andrawinaloka canned gudeg at 30°C is predicted untill 21 months and 24 months for 25°C.

  13. Reinforcement Corrosion: Numerical Simulation and Service Life Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Alexander

    defects and b) define the end of service life once reinforcement corrosion is initiated neglecting corrosion processes during the propagation stage. The goal of this work was to develop a framework for the service life prediction of reinforced concrete covering initiation and propagation of chloride......Modelling of deterioration processes in concrete structures plays an increasing role in the design of reinforced concrete structures. Large sums are spent every year to ensure the durability of concrete structures, especially towards reinforcement corrosion. Improved durability provides increased...... structural reliability, economical improvements in form of less need for maintenance and repair as well as increased sustainability due to an increased energy and resource efficiency. Several service life prediction models dealing with reinforcement corrosion in concrete structurescan be found...

  14. Methodology for formulating predictions of stress corrosion cracking life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamauchi, Kiyoshi; Hattori, Shigeo; Shindo, Takenori; Kuniya, Jiro

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for formulating predictions to evaluate the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) potential of each light-water reactor component, where an index is introduced as a life index or F index. The index denotes the SCC time ratio of a given SCC system to be evaluated against a reference SCC system. The life index is expressed by the products of several subdivided life indexes, which correspond to each SCC influencing factor. Each subdivided life index is constructed as a function containing the influencing factor variable, obtained by analyzing experimental SCC life data. The methodology was termed the subdivided factor method. Application of the life index to SCC life data and field data showed that it was effective for evaluating the SCC potential, i.e. the SCC life. Accordingly, the proposed methodology can potentially describe a phenomenon expressed by a function which consists of the variables of several influencing factors whether there are formulae which unite as a physical model or not. ((orig.))

  15. Towards a unified fatigue life prediction method for marine structures

    CERN Document Server

    Cui, Weicheng; Wang, Fang

    2014-01-01

    In order to apply the damage tolerance design philosophy to design marine structures, accurate prediction of fatigue crack growth under service conditions is required. Now, more and more people have realized that only a fatigue life prediction method based on fatigue crack propagation (FCP) theory has the potential to explain various fatigue phenomena observed. In this book, the issues leading towards the development of a unified fatigue life prediction (UFLP) method based on FCP theory are addressed. Based on the philosophy of the UFLP method, the current inconsistency between fatigue design and inspection of marine structures could be resolved. This book presents the state-of-the-art and recent advances, including those by the authors, in fatigue studies. It is designed to lead the future directions and to provide a useful tool in many practical applications. It is intended to address to engineers, naval architects, research staff, professionals and graduates engaged in fatigue prevention design and survey ...

  16. Do neurooncological patients and their significant others agree on quality of life ratings?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hutterer Markus

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Patients suffering from brain tumours often experience a wide range of cognitive impairments that impair their ability to report on their quality of life and symptom burden. The use of proxy ratings by significant others may be a promising alternative to gain information for medical decision making or research purposes, if self-ratings are not obtainable. Our study investigated the agreement of quality of life and symptom ratings by the patient him/herself or by a significant other. Methods Patients with primary brain tumours were recruited at the neurooncological outpatient unit of Innsbruck Medical University. Quality of life self- and proxy-ratings were collected using the EORTC QLQ-C30 and its brain cancer module, the QLQ-BN20. Results Between May 2005 and August 2007, 42 pairs consisting of a patient and his/her significant other were included in the study. Most of the employed quality of life scales showed fairly good agreement between patient- and proxy-ratings (median correlation 0.46. This was especially true for Physical Functioning, Sleeping Disturbances, Appetite Loss, Constipation, Taste Alterations, Visual Disorders, Motor Dysfunction, Communication Deficits, Hair Loss, Itchy Skin, Motor Dysfunction and Hair Loss. Worse rater agreement was found for Social Functioning, Emotional Functioning, Cognitive Functioning, Fatigue, Pain, Dyspnoea and Seizures. Conclusion The assessment of quality of life in brain cancer patients through ratings from their significant others seems to be a feasible strategy to gain information about certain aspects of patient's quality of life and symptom burden, if the patient is not able to provide information himself.

  17. Quality of life is significantly impaired in non-allergic rhinitis patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Segboer, Christine L.; Terreehorst, Ingrid; Gevorgyan, Artur; Hellings, Peter W.; van Drunen, Cornelis M.; Fokkens, Wytske J.

    2017-01-01

    In contrast to the well-known significant impairment of quality of life (QoL) in allergic rhinitis (AR), the degree of impairment in QoL in non-allergic rhinitis (NAR) remained unknown for a long time, due to a lack of a validated questionnaire to assess QoL in the NAR patient group. In this study a

  18. The clinical significance of quality of life assessments in oncology: a summary for clinicians

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sloan, Jeff A.; Frost, Marlene H.; Berzon, Rick; Dueck, Amylou; Guyatt, Gordon; Moinpour, Carol; Sprangers, Mirjam; Ferrans, Carol; Cella, David

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A series of six manuscripts with an introduction appeared in the Mayo Clinic Proceedings, based upon the collective effort of 30 individuals with an interest and expertise in assessing the clinical significance of quality of life (QOL) assessments. The series of manuscripts described the

  19. Global life satisfaction predicts ambulatory affect, stress, and cortisol in daily life in working adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Joshua M; Zawadzki, Matthew J; Juth, Vanessa; Sciamanna, Christopher N

    2017-04-01

    Global life satisfaction has been linked with long-term health advantages, yet how life satisfaction impacts the trajectory of long-term health is unclear. This paper examines one such possible mechanism-that greater life satisfaction confers momentary benefits in daily life that accumulate over time. A community sample of working adults (n = 115) completed a measure of life satisfaction and then three subsequent days of ecological momentary assessment surveys (6 times/day) measuring affect (i.e., emotional valence, arousal), and perceived stress, and also provided salivary cortisol samples. Multilevel models indicated that people with higher (vs. lower) levels of life satisfaction reported better momentary affect, less stress, marginally lower momentary levels and significantly altered diurnal slopes of cortisol. Findings suggest individuals with high global life satisfaction have advantageous daily experiences, providing initial evidence for potential mechanisms through which global life satisfaction may help explain long-term health benefits.

  20. Model training across multiple breeding cycles significantly improves genomic prediction accuracy in rye (Secale cereale L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auinger, Hans-Jürgen; Schönleben, Manfred; Lehermeier, Christina; Schmidt, Malthe; Korzun, Viktor; Geiger, Hartwig H; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Gordillo, Andres; Wilde, Peer; Bauer, Eva; Schön, Chris-Carolin

    2016-11-01

    Genomic prediction accuracy can be significantly increased by model calibration across multiple breeding cycles as long as selection cycles are connected by common ancestors. In hybrid rye breeding, application of genome-based prediction is expected to increase selection gain because of long selection cycles in population improvement and development of hybrid components. Essentially two prediction scenarios arise: (1) prediction of the genetic value of lines from the same breeding cycle in which model training is performed and (2) prediction of lines from subsequent cycles. It is the latter from which a reduction in cycle length and consequently the strongest impact on selection gain is expected. We empirically investigated genome-based prediction of grain yield, plant height and thousand kernel weight within and across four selection cycles of a hybrid rye breeding program. Prediction performance was assessed using genomic and pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP and PBLUP). A total of 1040 S 2 lines were genotyped with 16 k SNPs and each year testcrosses of 260 S 2 lines were phenotyped in seven or eight locations. The performance gap between GBLUP and PBLUP increased significantly for all traits when model calibration was performed on aggregated data from several cycles. Prediction accuracies obtained from cross-validation were in the order of 0.70 for all traits when data from all cycles (N CS  = 832) were used for model training and exceeded within-cycle accuracies in all cases. As long as selection cycles are connected by a sufficient number of common ancestors and prediction accuracy has not reached a plateau when increasing sample size, aggregating data from several preceding cycles is recommended for predicting genetic values in subsequent cycles despite decreasing relatedness over time.

  1. Self-relation and relations with significant adults as factors of satisfaction with life in adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golovey L.A.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of factors influencing life satisfaction of teenagers raised in families as well as those raised in orphanages. Both groups are studied with regard to their self-attitude, self-confidence and relationships with significant adults. Sample: 96 teenagers aged between 14 and 16 years (46 of them live in or- phanages. Methods: Self-attitude methodology by S.R. Pantileev, Trust questionnaire by T.P. Skripkina, Child-parent relationships questionnaire by O.A. Karabanova and P.V. Troyanskaya, Life Satisfaction scale by E. Diner. The research proved the level of trust in orphanage-raised teenagers to be considerably lower than that of family-raised teenagers. The way teenagers see their relationships with significant adults also turned out to be fairly different in case of orphanage-raised groups due to their caregivers' authoritarian attitude towards them and lack of empathy and communication. The study also shows that the level of life satisfaction in the orphanage group is significantly below the average and substantially lower than in the group from family-raised teenagers. Positive self-attitude, person’s approval of his/ her intellectual capacities, as well as the caregiver's understanding of his pupil's features, are predictors of life satisfaction in the group of teenagers from orphanages. Concerning the family-raised teenagers, much more factors are involved in maintaining their subjective well-being.

  2. Life prediction and mechanical reliability of NT551 silicon nitride

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark Jay

    The inert strength and fatigue performance of a diesel engine exhaust valve made from silicon nitride (Si3N4) ceramic were assessed. The Si3N4 characterized in this study was manufactured by Saint Gobain/Norton Industrial Ceramics and was designated as NT551. The evaluation was made utilizing a probabilistic life prediction algorithm that combined censored test specimen strength data with a Weibull distribution function and the stress field of the ceramic valve obtained from finite element analysis. The major assumptions of the life prediction algorithm are that the bulk ceramic material is isotropic and homogeneous and that the strength-limiting flaws are uniformly distributed. The results from mechanical testing indicated that NT551 was not a homogeneous ceramic and that its strength were functions of temperature, loading rate, and machining orientation. Fractographic analysis identified four different failure modes; 2 were identified as inhomogeneities that were located throughout the bulk of NT551 and were due to processing operations. The fractographic analysis concluded that the strength degradation of NT551 observed from the temperature and loading rate test parameters was due to a change of state that occurred in its secondary phase. Pristine and engine-tested valves made from NT551 were loaded to failure and the inert strengths were obtained. Fractographic analysis of the valves identified the same four failure mechanisms as found with the test specimens. The fatigue performance and the inert strength of the Si3N 4 valves were assessed from censored and uncensored test specimen strength data, respectively. The inert strength failure probability predictions were compared to the inert strength of the Si3N4 valves. The inert strength failure probability predictions were more conservative than the strength of the valves. The lack of correlation between predicted and actual valve strength was due to the nonuniform distribution of inhomogeneities present in NT

  3. Shelf life prediction of radiation sterilized polymeric materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandford, Craig; Woo, Lecon

    1988-01-01

    The functional properties of many polymers employed in medical disposables are unaffected by sterilizing doses of ionizing radiation. However, some materials (PVC, polypropylene, cellulosics, etc.) undergo undesirable changes which continue to occur for the shelf life of the product. In many cases, conventional accelerated aging techniques do not accurately predict the real time properties of the materials. As real time aging is not generally practical, it has become necessary to develop accelerated aging techniques which can predict the functional properties of a material for the shelf life of the product. This presentation will address issues involved in developing these tests. Real time physical property data is compared to data generated by various acceleration methods. (author)

  4. DNA Sequencing and Predictions of the Cosmic Theory of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramasinghe, N. Chandra

    The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979-1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.

  5. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  6. The presence, predictive utility, and clinical significance of body dysmorphic symptoms in women with eating disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Both eating disorders (EDs) and body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) are disorders of body image. This study aimed to assess the presence, predictive utility, and impact of clinical features commonly associated with BDD in women with EDs. Methods Participants recruited from two non-clinical cohorts of women, symptomatic and asymptomatic of EDs, completed a survey on ED (EDE-Q) and BDD (BDDE-SR) psychopathology, psychological distress (K-10), and quality of life (SF-12). Results A strong correlation was observed between the total BDDE-SR and the global EDE-Q scores (r = 0.79, p 0.05) measured appearance checking, reassurance-seeking, camouflaging, comparison-making, and social avoidance. In addition to these behaviors, inspection of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) revealed that BDDE-SR items measuring preoccupation and dissatisfaction with appearance were most predictive of ED cases (Se and Sp > 0.60). Higher total BDDE-SR scores were associated with greater distress on the K-10 and poorer quality of life on the SF-12 (all p < 0.01). Conclusions Clinical features central to the model of BDD are common in, predictive of, and associated with impairment in women with EDs. Practice implications are that these features be included in the assessment and treatment of EDs. PMID:24999401

  7. Service life prediction and fibre reinforced cementitious composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stoklund Larsen, E.

    The present Ph.D.thesis addresses the service life concept on the fibre reinforced cementitious composites. The advantages and problems of adding fibre to a cementitious matrix and the influence on service life are described. In SBI Report 221, Service life prediction and cementitious somposites......, the factors affecting the pure cementitious composite are described. Different sizes and types of fibre reinforced crmentitious composites have been chosen to illustrate different ageing and deterioration mechanisms. Some ageing mechanisms can be accelerated and others cannot which is demonstrated in a test...... programme. Moisture, micro structural and mechanical properties were measured before, during and after ageing, with the purpose of giving a detailed "picture" of the materials during ageing....

  8. Failure analysis and seal life prediction for contacting mechanical seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, J. J.; He, X. Y.; Wei, L.; Feng, X.

    2008-11-01

    Fault tree analysis method was applied to quantitatively investigate the causes of the leakage failure of mechanical seals. It is pointed out that the change of the surface topography is the main reasons causing the leakage of mechanical seals under the condition of constant preloads. Based on the fractal geometry theory, the relationship between the surface topography and working time were investigated by experiments, and the effects of unit load acting on seal face on leakage path in a mechanical seal were analyzed. The model of predicting seal life of mechanical seals was established on the basis of the relationship between the surface topography and working time and allowable leakage. The seal life of 108 mechanical seal operating at the system of diesel fuel storage and transportation was predicted and the problem of the condition monitoring for the long-period operation of mechanical seal was discussed by this method. The research results indicate that the method of predicting seal life of mechanical seals is feasible, and also is foundation to make scheduled maintenance time and to achieve safe-reliability and low-cost operation for industrial devices.

  9. Genetic testing in benign familial epilepsies of the first year of life: clinical and diagnostic significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zara, Federico; Specchio, Nicola; Striano, Pasquale; Robbiano, Angela; Gennaro, Elena; Paravidino, Roberta; Vanni, Nicola; Beccaria, Francesca; Capovilla, Giuseppe; Bianchi, Amedeo; Caffi, Lorella; Cardilli, Viviana; Darra, Francesca; Bernardina, Bernardo Dalla; Fusco, Lucia; Gaggero, Roberto; Giordano, Lucio; Guerrini, Renzo; Incorpora, Gemma; Mastrangelo, Massimo; Spaccini, Luigina; Laverda, Anna Maria; Vecchi, Marilena; Vanadia, Francesca; Veggiotti, Pierangelo; Viri, Maurizio; Occhi, Guya; Budetta, Mauro; Taglialatela, Maurizio; Coviello, Domenico A; Vigevano, Federico; Minetti, Carlo

    2013-03-01

    To dissect the genetics of benign familial epilepsies of the first year of life and to assess the extent of the genetic overlap between benign familial neonatal seizures (BFNS), benign familial neonatal-infantile seizures (BFNIS), and benign familial infantile seizures (BFIS). Families with at least two first-degree relatives affected by focal seizures starting within the first year of life and normal development before seizure onset were included. Families were classified as BFNS when all family members experienced neonatal seizures, BFNIS when the onset of seizures in family members was between 1 and 4 months of age or showed both neonatal and infantile seizures, and BFIS when the onset of seizures was after 4 months of age in all family members. SCN2A, KCNQ2, KCNQ3, PPRT2 point mutations were analyzed by direct sequencing of amplified genomic DNA. Genomic deletions involving KCNQ2 and KCNQ3 were analyzed by multiple-dependent probe amplification method. A total of 46 families including 165 affected members were collected. Eight families were classified as BFNS, 9 as BFNIS, and 29 as BFIS. Genetic analysis led to the identification of 41 mutations, 14 affecting KCNQ2, 1 affecting KCNQ3, 5 affecting SCN2A, and 21 affecting PRRT2. The detection rate of mutations in the entire cohort was 89%. In BFNS, mutations specifically involve KCNQ2. In BFNIS two genes are involved (KCNQ2, six families; SCN2A, two families). BFIS families are the most genetically heterogeneous, with all four genes involved, although about 70% of them carry a PRRT2 mutation. Our data highlight the important role of KCNQ2 in the entire spectrum of disorders, although progressively decreasing as the age of onset advances. The occurrence of afebrile seizures during follow-up is associated with KCNQ2 mutations and may represent a predictive factor. In addition, we showed that KCNQ3 mutations might be also involved in families with infantile seizures. Taken together our data indicate an important

  10. Structure life prediction at high temperature: present and future capabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaboche, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The life prediction techniques for high temperature conditions include several aspects which are considered successively in this article. Crack initiation criteria themselves, defined for the isolated volume element (the tension-compression specimen for example), including parametric relationships and continuous damage approaches and calculation of local stress and strain fields in the structure and their evolution under cyclic plasticity, which poses several difficult problems to obtain stabilized cyclic solutions are examined. The use of crack initiation criteria or damage rules from the result of the cyclic inelastic analysis and the prediction of crack growth in the structure are considered. Different levels are considered for the predictive tools: the classical approach, future methods presently under development and intermediate rules, which are already in use. Several examples are given on materials and components used either in the nuclear industry or in gas turbine engines. (author)

  11. Shelf life prediction of canned fried-rice using accelerated shelf life testing (ASLT) arrhenius method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurniadi, M.; Bintang, R.; Kusumaningrum, A.; Nursiwi, A.; Nurhikmat, A.; Susanto, A.; Angwar, M.; Triwiyono; Frediansyah, A.

    2017-12-01

    Research on shelf-life prediction of canned fried rice using Accelerated Shelf-life Test (ASLT) of Arrhenius model has been conducted. The aim of this research to predict shelf life of canned-fried rice products. Lethality value of 121°C for 15 and 20 minutes and Total Plate count methods are used to determine time and temperatures of sterilization process.Various storage temperatures of ASLT Arrhenius method were 35, 45 and 55°C during 35days. Rancidity is one of the derivation quality of canned fried rice. In this research, sample of canned fried rice is tested using rancidity value (TBA). TBA value was used as parameter which be measured once a week periodically. The use of can for fried rice without any chemical preservative is one of the advantage of the product, additionaly the use of physicalproperties such as temperature and pressure during its process can extend the shelf life and reduce the microbial contamination. The same research has never done before for fried rice as ready to eat meal. The result showed that the optimum conditions of sterilization process were 121°C,15 minutes with total plate count number of 9,3 × 101 CFU/ml. Lethality value of canned fried rice at 121°C,15 minutes was 3.63 minutes. The calculated Shelf-life of canned fried rice using Accelerated Shelf-life Test (ASLT) of Arrhenius method was 10.3 months.

  12. Ghrelin level negatively predicts quality of life in obese women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, P H; Song, Y L; Hsu, C H

    2017-02-01

    A cross-sectional cohort study was conducted to investigate whether ghrelin level in obese women predicts the quality of life (QOL). A total of 307 subjects fulfilled the criteria: (1) age between 20 and 65 years old, (2) body mass index ≥27 kg/m 2 (3) waist circumference ≥80 cm were enrolled in the study. All subjects were assigned to one of the plasma ghrelin level categories according to the quartiles. The median of age and BMI of the 307 obese women were 45 ± 18 years and 29.9 ± 4.1 kg/m 2 , respectively. The main outcome evaluated is the associations of plasma ghrelin level and QOL, which were evaluated using multiple linear regression analysis. Results of linear trend test show significant statistical difference in plasma lipoproteins (triglyceride, cholesterol, HDL-cholestero and LDL-cholesterol = and levels of obesity-related hormone peptides, including leptin, adiponectin, insulin among quartiles of ghrelin. Multiple liner regression analysis of serum obesity-related hormone peptide level and QOL using stepwise method shows ghrelin concentration was the only predictor of QOL, including PCS-12 level (β = -0.18, p = 0.001), MCS-12 level (β = -0.14, p = 0.009), WHOQOL-BREF scores: physical (β = -0.13, p = 0.03), psychological (β = -0.16, p = 0.007), social (β = -0.21, p =  ghrelin concentration is strongly associated with QOL level among obese women. Hence, ghrelin concentration might be a valuable marker to be monitored in obese women.

  13. Half-life predictions for decay modes of superheavy nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duarte, S.B.; Tavares, O.A.P.; Goncalves, M.; Rodriguez, O.; Guzman, F.; Barbosa, T.N.; Garcia, F.; Dimarco, A.

    2004-09-01

    We applied the Effective Liquid Drop Model (ELDM) to predict the alpha-decay, cluster emission and cold fission half-life-values of nuclei in the region of Superheavy Elements (SHE). The present calculations have been made in the region of the ZN-plane defined by 155 <=N <=220 and 110<=Z<=135. Shell effects are included via the Q-value of the corresponding decay case. We report the results of a systematic calculation of the half-life for the three nuclear decay modes in a region of the ZN-plane where superheavy elements are expected to be found. Results have shown that, among the decay modes investigated here, the alpha decay is the dominant one. i.e, the decay mode of smallest half-lives. Half-life predictions for alpha decay, cluster emission and cold fission for the isotopic family of the most recent SHE detected of Z=115 and for the isotopic family of the already consolidated SHE of Z=111 are presented. (author)

  14. Fatigue life prediction in woven carbon fabric polyester composites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, Z.; Al-Sulaiman, F.S.; Farooqi, J.K.

    1999-01-01

    An analytical model, based on stiffness degradation during fatigue loading, which has been used for fatigue life predictions in the Fiber Reinforced Plastics (FRP), is employed to examine its validity to the fatigue life predictions in the Woven Fabric Reinforced Plastics. The rate of stiffness degradation (dE/dN) has been obtained from the constant amplitude fatigue testing of 8-ply coupons made from prepreg plain-weave woven carbon-carbon fabric having a polyester resin as the matrix material. The test coupons had three different ply stacking sequences, namely, the unidirectional (0)8,and two off axis plied (0,0,+45,-45)s, and (+45,-45,0,0)s orientations. The estimated fatigue lives obtained from the damage rate function dD/dN, which in turn was a function of the stiffness degradation rate dE/dN, were compared with the experimentally observed fatigue life data. It is shown that the stiffness degradation model provides reasonably good correlation between the analytically determined fatigue lives and the experimentally observed fatigue for the plain-weave woven Carbon-Carbon Fabric Reinforced Plastic Composites. (author)

  15. Recent Methodologies for Creep Deformation Analysis and Its Life Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Park, Jae-Young; Iung

    2016-01-01

    To design the high-temperature creeping materials, various creep data are needed for codification, as follows: i) stress vs. creep rupture time for base metals and weldments (average and minimum), ii) stress vs. time to 1% total strain (average), iii) stress vs. time to onset of tertiary creep (minimum), and iv) constitutive eqns. for conducting time- and temperature- dependent stress-strain (average), and v) isochronous stress-strain curves (average). Also, elevated temperature components such as those used in modern power generation plant are designed using allowable stress under creep conditions. The allowable stress is usually estimated on the basis of up to 10"5 h creep rupture strength at the operating temperature. The master curve of the “sinh” function was found to have a wider acceptance with good flexibility in the low stress ranges beyond the experimental data. The proposed multi-C method in the LM parameter revealed better life prediction than a single-C method. These improved methodologies can be utilized to accurately predict the long-term creep life or strength of Gen-IV nuclear materials which are designed for life span of 60 years

  16. Teachers' assessments of children aged eight predict life satisfaction in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honkanen, Meri; Meri, Honkanen; Hurtig, Tuula; Tuula, Hurtig; Taanila, Anja; Anja, Taanila; Moilanen, Irma; Irma, Moilanen; Koponen, Hannu; Hannu, Koponen; Mäki, Pirjo; Pirjo, Mäki; Veijola, Juha; Juha, Veijola; Puustjärvi, Anita; Anita, Puustjärvi; Ebeling, Hanna; Hanna, Ebeling; Koivumaa-Honkanen, Heli; Heli, Koivumaa-Honkanen

    2011-09-01

    The objective was to investigate how teachers' assessments of children predict life satisfaction in adolescence. This is a prospective cohort study on the population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (n = 8,959). Information was gathered from parents, teachers and adolescents using questionnaires at the age of 7, 8 and 15. Response rates were 80-90%. Emotional and behavioural problems were assessed with Rutter Children's Behavioural Questionnaires for teachers (RB2) and parents (RA2) during the first grade at age 8. At adolescence, self-reported life satisfaction was measured with a question including five response alternatives. According to teachers' assessments, 13.9% of the children had high emotional or behavioural problems (RB2 ≥9). These assessments predicted life dissatisfaction in adolescence (OR(crude) = 1.77; 95% CI 1.43-2.20) in several models including also health behaviour and use of psychotropic medicine. However, introducing all the significant variables in the same model, RB2 lost its significance (OR = 1.28; 0.96-1.70), but good school achievement assessed by teachers was still a significant predictor. Life satisfaction in adolescence was associated with a variety of favourable concurrent factors. In conclusion teachers' assessments of children during the first school year predicted life satisfaction in adolescence. In mental health promotion, teachers' early assessments should be utilized for the benefit of children.

  17. Aging of concrete components and its significance relative to life extension of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naus, D.J.

    1987-01-01

    Nuclear power currently supplies about 16% of the US electricity requirements, with the percentage expected to rise to 20% by 1990. Despite the increasing role of nuclear power in energy production, cessation of orders for new nuclear plants in combination with expiration of operating licenses for several plants in the next 15 to 20 years results in a potential loss of electrical generating capacity of 50 to 60 gigawatts during the time period 2005 to 2020. A potential timely and cost-effective solution to the problem of meeting future energy demand is available through extension of the service life of existing nuclear plants. Any consideration of plant life extension, however, must consider the concrete components in these plants, since they play a vital safety role. Under the USNRC Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) Program, a study was conducted to review operating experience and to provide background that will lead to subsequent development of a methodology for assessing and predicting the effects of aging on the performance of concrete-based structures. The approach followed was in conformance with the NPAR strategy

  18. Time-dependent fatigue--phenomenology and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coffin, L.F.

    1979-01-01

    The time-dependent fatigue behavior of materials used or considered for use in present and advanced systems for power generation is outlined. A picture is first presented to show how basic mechanisms and phenomenological information relate to the performance of the component under consideration through the so-called local strain approach. By this means life prediction criteria and design rules can be formulated utilizing laboratory test information which is directly translated to predicting the performance of a component. The body of phenomenological information relative to time-dependent fatigue is reviewed. Included are effects of strain range, strain rate and frequency, environment and wave shape, all of which are shown to be important in developing both an understanding and design base for time dependent fatigue. Using this information, some of the current methods being considered for the life prediction of components are reviewed. These include the current ASME code case, frequency-modified fatigue equations, strain range partitioning, the damage function method, frequency separation and damage rate equations. From this review, it is hoped that a better perspective on future directions for basic material science at high temperature can be achieved

  19. Statistical characterization of pitting corrosion process and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheikh, A.K.; Younas, M.

    1995-01-01

    In order to prevent corrosion failures of machines and structures, it is desirable to know in advance when the corrosion damage will take place, and appropriate measures are needed to mitigate the damage. The corrosion predictions are needed both at development as well as operational stage of machines and structures. There are several forms of corrosion process through which varying degrees of damage can occur. Under certain conditions these corrosion processes at alone and in other set of conditions, several of these processes may occur simultaneously. For a certain type of machine elements and structures, such as gears, bearing, tubes, pipelines, containers, storage tanks etc., are particularly prone to pitting corrosion which is an insidious form of corrosion. The corrosion predictions are usually based on experimental results obtained from test coupons and/or field experiences of similar machines or parts of a structure. Considerable scatter is observed in corrosion processes. The probabilities nature and kinetics of pitting process makes in necessary to use statistical method to forecast the residual life of machine of structures. The focus of this paper is to characterization pitting as a time-dependent random process, and using this characterization the prediction of life to reach a critical level of pitting damage can be made. Using several data sets from literature on pitting corrosion, the extreme value modeling of pitting corrosion process, the evolution of the extreme value distribution in time, and their relationship to the reliability of machines and structure are explained. (author)

  20. Significant change of predictions related to the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumitrache, Ion

    2002-01-01

    During the last two decades of the 20th century, nuclear power contribution increased slowly in the world. This trend was mainly determined by the commissioning of new nuclear power plants, NPP, in the non-developed countries, except for Japan and South Korea. Almost all the forecasts offered the image of the stagnant nuclear power business. Sweden, Germany, Holland and Belgium Governments made clear the intention to stop the production of electricity based on fission. Recently, despite the negative effects on nuclear power of the terrorism events of September 11, 2001, the predictions related to the nuclear power future become much more optimistic. USA, Japan, South Korea and Canada made clear that new NPPs will offer their significant electricity contribution several decades, even after years 2020-2030. Moreover, several old NPP from USA obtained the license for an additional 20 years period of operation. The analysis indicated that most of the existing NPP in USA may increase the level of the maximum global power defined by the initial design. In the European Union the situation is much more complicated. About 35% of the electricity is based now on fission. Several countries, like Sweden and Germany, maintain the position of phasing out the NPPs, as soon as the licensed life-time is over. Finland decided to build a new power plant. France is very favorable to nuclear power, but does not need more energy. In the UK several very old NPP will be shut down, and companies like BNFL and British Energy intend to build new NPP, based on Westinghouse or AECL-Canada advanced reactors. Switzerland and Spain are favorable to the future use of nuclear power. In the eastern part of Europe, almost all the countries intend to base their electricity production on coal, fission, hydro and gas, nuclear contribution being significant. The most impressive increases of nuclear power output are related to Asia; in China, from 2.2 Gwe in 1999, to 18.7 Gwe in 2020, reference case, or 10

  1. Using ABAQUS Scripting Interface for Materials Evaluation and Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Lynn M.; Arnold, Steven M.; Baranski, Andrzej

    2006-01-01

    An ABAQUS script has been written to aid in the evaluation of the mechanical behavior of viscoplastic materials. The purposes of the script are to: handle complex load histories; control load/displacement with alternate stopping criteria; predict failure and life; and verify constitutive models. Material models from the ABAQUS library may be used or the UMAT routine may specify mechanical behavior. User subroutines implemented include: UMAT for the constitutive model; UEXTERNALDB for file manipulation; DISP for boundary conditions; and URDFIL for results processing. Examples presented include load, strain and displacement control tests on a single element model. The tests are creep with a life limiting strain criterion, strain control with a stress limiting cycle and a complex interrupted cyclic relaxation test. The techniques implemented in this paper enable complex load conditions to be solved efficiently with ABAQUS.

  2. Patterns, Entropy, and Predictability of Human Mobility and Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Shao-Meng; Verkasalo, Hannu; Mohtaschemi, Mikael; Hartonen, Tuomo; Alava, Mikko

    2012-01-01

    Cellular phones are now offering an ubiquitous means for scientists to observe life: how people act, move and respond to external influences. They can be utilized as measurement devices of individual persons and for groups of people of the social context and the related interactions. The picture of human life that emerges shows complexity, which is manifested in such data in properties of the spatiotemporal tracks of individuals. We extract from smartphone-based data for a set of persons important locations such as “home”, “work” and so forth over fixed length time-slots covering the days in the data-set (see also [1], [2]). This set of typical places is heavy-tailed, a power-law distribution with an exponent close to −1.7. To analyze the regularities and stochastic features present, the days are classified for each person into regular, personal patterns. To this are superimposed fluctuations for each day. This randomness is measured by “life” entropy, computed both before and after finding the clustering so as to subtract the contribution of a number of patterns. The main issue that we then address is how predictable individuals are in their mobility. The patterns and entropy are reflected in the predictability of the mobility of the life both individually and on average. We explore the simple approaches to guess the location from the typical behavior, and of exploiting the transition probabilities with time from location or activity A to B. The patterns allow an enhanced predictability, at least up to a few hours into the future from the current location. Such fixed habits are most clearly visible in the working-day length. PMID:23300542

  3. USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LOFARO, R.; SOO, P.; VILLARAN, M.; GROVE, E.

    2001-01-01

    Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed

  4. Artificial neural networks to predict presence of significant pathology in patients presenting to routine colorectal clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslekar, S; Gardiner, A B; Monson, J R T; Duthie, G S

    2010-12-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are computer programs used to identify complex relations within data. Routine predictions of presence of colorectal pathology based on population statistics have little meaning for individual patient. This results in large number of unnecessary lower gastrointestinal endoscopies (LGEs - colonoscopies and flexible sigmoidoscopies). We aimed to develop a neural network algorithm that can accurately predict presence of significant pathology in patients attending routine outpatient clinics for gastrointestinal symptoms. Ethics approval was obtained and the study was monitored according to International Committee on Harmonisation - Good Clinical Practice (ICH-GCP) standards. Three-hundred patients undergoing LGE prospectively completed a specifically developed questionnaire, which included 40 variables based on clinical symptoms, signs, past- and family history. Complete data sets of 100 patients were used to train the ANN; the remaining data was used for internal validation. The primary output used was positive finding on LGE, including polyps, cancer, diverticular disease or colitis. For external validation, the ANN was applied to data from 50 patients in primary care and also compared with the predictions of four clinicians. Clear correlation between actual data value and ANN predictions were found (r = 0.931; P = 0.0001). The predictive accuracy of ANN was 95% in training group and 90% (95% CI 84-96) in the internal validation set and this was significantly higher than the clinical accuracy (75%). ANN also showed high accuracy in the external validation group (89%). Artificial neural networks offer the possibility of personal prediction of outcome for individual patients presenting in clinics with colorectal symptoms, making it possible to make more appropriate requests for lower gastrointestinal endoscopy. © 2010 The Authors. Colorectal Disease © 2010 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  5. One- and two-stage Arrhenius models for pharmaceutical shelf life prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Zhewen; Zhang, Lanju

    2015-01-01

    One of the most challenging aspects of the pharmaceutical development is the demonstration and estimation of chemical stability. It is imperative that pharmaceutical products be stable for two or more years. Long-term stability studies are required to support such shelf life claim at registration. However, during drug development to facilitate formulation and dosage form selection, an accelerated stability study with stressed storage condition is preferred to quickly obtain a good prediction of shelf life under ambient storage conditions. Such a prediction typically uses Arrhenius equation that describes relationship between degradation rate and temperature (and humidity). Existing methods usually rely on the assumption of normality of the errors. In addition, shelf life projection is usually based on confidence band of a regression line. However, the coverage probability of a method is often overlooked or under-reported. In this paper, we introduce two nonparametric bootstrap procedures for shelf life estimation based on accelerated stability testing, and compare them with a one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius prediction model. Our simulation results demonstrate that one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius method has significant lower coverage than nominal levels. Our bootstrap method gave better coverage and led to a shelf life prediction closer to that based on long-term stability data.

  6. Solid-state lighting life prediction using extended Kalman filter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep [Auburn Univ., AL (United States); Wei, Junchao [Auburn Univ., AL (United States); Davis, Lynn [RTI International, Durham, NC (United States)

    2013-07-16

    Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. The U.S. Department of Energy has made a long term commitment to advance the efficiency, understanding and development of solid-state lighting (SSL) and is making a strong push for the acceptance and use of SSL products to reduce overall energy consumption attributable to lighting. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is defined by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of SSL Luminaires from LM-80 test data. The TM-21 model uses an Arrhenius Equation with an Activation Energy, Pre-decay factor and Decay Rates. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a luminaire at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Arrhenius Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, a Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filters have been used to develop a 70% Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for a LEDs used in SSL luminaires. This model can be used to calculate acceleration factors, evaluate failure-probability and identify ALT methodologies for reducing test time. Ten-thousand hour LM

  7. Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life Changing and Life Threatening Health Changes among Aging Veterans and Civilians with Spinal Cord Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0629 TITLE: Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life -Changing and Life -Threatening Health Changes among Aging...Annual 3. DATES COVERED 30 Sep 2016 - 29 Sep 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life -Changing and Life ... hope of preventing them. Our purpose is to better understand the how and why of the development of negative health spirals and how they may best be

  8. Significant life events and social connectedness in Australian women’s gambling experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuske Elaine Mary

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available AIM - The aim is to examine significant life events and social connections that encourage some women to gamble. Specifically, how do these events and connections described as important for women who develop gambling-related problems differ for women who remain recreational gamblers? DESIGN - 20 women who were electronic gaming machine (EGMs, poker machines, slots players were interviewed using a brief interview guide. They also completed the nine question Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI from the Canadian Problem Gambling Index CPGI. 11 women self-identified as recreational gamblers (RG while 9 had sought and received help for their gambling problems (PG. Using a feminist, qualitative design and an adaptive grounded theory method to analyze their histories, a number of themes emerged indicating a progression to problem gambling for some and the ability to recognise when control over gambling was needed by others. RESULTS - Although both groups (RG and PG reported common gambling motivations differences appeared in the strength of their social support networks and ways of coping with stress, especially stress associated with a significant life event. CONCLUSIONS - The human need for social connectedness and personal bonds with others emphasised the usefulness of using social capital theories in gambling research with women.

  9. WHAT PREDICTS A SUCCESSFUL LIFE? A LIFE-COURSE MODEL OF WELL-BEING*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layard, Richard; Clark, Andrew E.; Cornaglia, Francesca; Powdthavee, Nattavudh; Vernoit, James

    2014-01-01

    Policy-makers who care about well-being need a recursive model of how adult life-satisfaction is predicted by childhood influences, acting both directly and (indirectly) through adult circumstances. We estimate such a model using the British Cohort Study (1970). We show that the most powerful childhood predictor of adult life-satisfaction is the child’s emotional health, followed by the child’s conduct. The least powerful predictor is the child’s intellectual development. This may have implications for educational policy. Among adult circumstances, family income accounts for only 0.5% of the variance of life-satisfaction. Mental and physical health are much more important. PMID:25422527

  10. Clinical Significance of Hemostatic Parameters in the Prediction for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Diabetic Nephropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lianlian Pan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available It would be important to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM and diabetic nephropathy (DN. This study was aimed at evaluating the predicting significance of hemostatic parameters for T2DM and DN. Plasma coagulation and hematologic parameters before treatment were measured in 297 T2DM patients. The risk factors and their predicting power were evaluated. T2DM patients without complications exhibited significantly different activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT, platelet (PLT, and D-dimer (D-D levels compared with controls (P<0.01. Fibrinogen (FIB, PLT, and D-D increased in DN patients compared with those without complications (P<0.001. Both aPTT and PLT were the independent risk factors for T2DM (OR: 1.320 and 1.211, P<0.01, resp., and FIB and PLT were the independent risk factors for DN (OR: 1.611 and 1.194, P<0.01, resp.. The area under ROC curve (AUC of aPTT and PLT was 0.592 and 0.647, respectively, with low sensitivity in predicting T2DM. AUC of FIB was 0.874 with high sensitivity (85% and specificity (76% for DN, and that of PLT was 0.564, with sensitivity (60% and specificity (89% based on the cutoff values of 3.15 g/L and 245 × 109/L, respectively. This study suggests that hemostatic parameters have a low predicting value for T2DM, whereas fibrinogen is a powerful predictor for DN.

  11. Physiologically-based, predictive analytics using the heart-rate-to-Systolic-Ratio significantly improves the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction compared to SIRS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Omar K; Hendren, Sandra; Santiago, Ethel; Nye, Brittany; Abraham, Prasad

    2017-04-01

    Enhancing the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment of severe sepsis by using physiologically-based, predictive analytical strategies has not been fully explored. We hypothesize assessment of heart-rate-to-systolic-ratio significantly increases the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction after emergency department (ED) presentation. We evaluated the records of 53,313 ED patients from a large, urban teaching hospital between January and June 2015. The HR-to-systolic ratio was compared to SIRS criteria for sepsis prediction. There were 884 patients with discharge diagnoses of sepsis, severe sepsis, and/or septic shock. Variations in three presenting variables, heart rate, systolic BP and temperature were determined to be primary early predictors of sepsis with a 74% (654/884) accuracy compared to 34% (304/884) using SIRS criteria (p < 0.0001)in confirmed septic patients. Physiologically-based predictive analytics improved the accuracy and expediency of sepsis identification via detection of variations in HR-to-systolic ratio. This approach may lead to earlier sepsis workup and life-saving interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Assessing clinical significance in measuring oncology patient quality of life: Introduction to the symposium, content overview, and definition of terms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sloan, Jeff A.; Cella, David; Frost, Marlene; Guyatt, Gordon H.; Sprangers, Mirjam; Symonds, Tara

    2002-01-01

    The Clinical Significance Consensus Meeting Group of the Symposium on the Clinical Significance of Quality-of-Life Measures in Cancer Patients produced 6 articles regarding the clinical significance of quality of life (QOL) assessments in oncology. The 6 articles deal with the methods used to date:

  13. The Role of Big Five Personality Factors and Defense Mechanisms in Predicting Quality of Life in Sexually Dysfunctional Female Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. salary

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Sexual dysfunction can lead to behavioral problems and reduction in a person's quality of life. In 50 % of patients with personality disorders, there is also sexual dysfunction. Psychoanalysis approach attributes the cause of sexual dysfunction to a kind of fundamental anxiety as well as the use of immature mechanisms in these patients. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of big five personality traits and defensive mechanisms in predicting these patients' quality of life. Statistical sample of this research included 80 women attending sexual health and family clinics of Shahed University using accessible sampling during 2010 and 2011. These subjects were given the Neo Personality Inventory Traits, Defensive Mechanisms, and the World Health organization Quality of Life Questionnaires to answer. The findings showed that personality traits could predict the quality of life in woman with sexual dysfunction. Moreover, among those five personality traits, neuroticism (:./24 P=./04 and conscientiousness(:./31 P=./03 were able to predict the quality of life while predictability rate of both factors was 37% of variance on the whole (p=0/05. Based on regression analysis, there was a significant relationship between the quality of life and defensive mechanisms so that using more mature defensive mechanisms (:./37 P=./006 and immature defensive mechanisms (:-./31 P= ./02 could significantly predict quality of life (p=0/0001. Also, neurotic defensive mechanisms were not significant predictors of these women' quality of life. (;./04 P=./78.

  14. Significance of solvated electrons (e(aq)-) as promoters of life on earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getoff, Nikola

    2014-01-01

    Based on the present state of knowledge a new hypothesis concerning the origin of life on Earth is presented, and emphasizes the particular significance of solvated electrons (e(aq)(-)). Solvated electrons are produced in seawater, mainly by (40)K radiation and in atmospheric moisture by VUV light, electrical discharges and cosmic ray. Solvated electrons are involved in primary chemical processes and in biological processes. The conversion of aqueous CO2 and CO into simple organic substances, the generation of ammonia from N2 and water, the formation of amines, amino acids and simple proteins under the action of e(aq)(-) has been experimentally proven. Furthermore, it is supposed that the generation of the primitive cell and equilibria of primitive enzymes are also realized due to the strong reducing property of e(aq)(-). The presented hypothesis is mainly founded on recently obtained experimental results. The involvement of e(aq)(-) in such mechanisms, as well as their action as an initiator of life is also briefly discussed.

  15. Statistical significance of theoretical predictions: A new dimension in nuclear structure theories (I)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DUDEK, J; SZPAK, B; FORNAL, B; PORQUET, M-G

    2011-01-01

    In this and the follow-up article we briefly discuss what we believe represents one of the most serious problems in contemporary nuclear structure: the question of statistical significance of parametrizations of nuclear microscopic Hamiltonians and the implied predictive power of the underlying theories. In the present Part I, we introduce the main lines of reasoning of the so-called Inverse Problem Theory, an important sub-field in the contemporary Applied Mathematics, here illustrated on the example of the Nuclear Mean-Field Approach.

  16. Life Prediction of Spent Fuel Storage Canister Material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballinger, Ronald

    2018-04-16

    The original purpose of this project was to develop a probabilistic model for SCC-induced failure of spent fuel storage canisters, exposed to a salt-air environment in the temperature range 30-70°C for periods up to and exceeding 100 years. The nature of this degradation process, which involves multiple degradation mechanisms, combined with variable and uncertain environmental conditions dictates a probabilistic approach to life prediction. A final report for the original portion of the project was submitted earlier. However, residual stress measurements for as-welded and repair welds could not be performed within the original time of the project. As a result of this, a no-cost extension was granted in order to complete these tests. In this report, we report on the results of residual stress measurements.

  17. NULIFE - the European NoE 'Nuclear Plant Life Prediction'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cojan, Mihail

    2008-01-01

    INR Pitesti become on the 29th September 2006 a partner in the European Network of Excellence Nuclear Plant Life Prediction (NULIFE) coordinated by Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). The EU's Network of Excellence NULIFE has been launched under the EURATOM FP6 Program with a clear focus on integrating safety-oriented research on materials, structures and systems and exploiting the results of this integration through the production of harmonized lifetime assessment methods. NULIFE will help provide a better common understanding of, and information on, the factors affecting the lifetime of nuclear power plants which, together with associated management methods, will help facilitate extensions to the safe and economic lifetime of existing nuclear power plants. (author)

  18. Predicting life satisfaction in Angolan elderly: The moderating effect of gender

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A considerable amount of research has been done to explain life satisfaction in the elderly, and there is growing empirical evidence on the best predictors of life satisfaction. When studying elderly's lifesatisfaction and its predictors, gender differences have been found in several studies, including significant interactions with widowhood, for example. In this context, the present study aims were: (1 to test for the gender invariance in a life satisfaction measure; (2 to predict life satisfaction using several variables related to the aging process; and (3 to test the potential moderator effects due to gender in this prediction. Participants were 1003 Angolan elderly. Several multi-group (men vs. women MIMIC structural models were tested. First, results showed that there is gender invariance for the measurement of life satisfaction. Second, results found no moderation effects on key variables of the aging process. In other words, the estimated effects of psychosocial variables on life satisfaction remain the same for both genders. The discussion relates these results to the existing literature and posits the contributions of the study.

  19. Life prediction of OLED for constant-stress accelerated degradation tests using luminance decaying model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Jianping, E-mail: jpzhanglzu@163.com [College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090 (China); Li, Wenbin [College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090 (China); Cheng, Guoliang; Chen, Xiao [Shanghai Tianyi Electric Co., Ltd., Shanghai 201611 (China); Wu, Helen [School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Western Sydney, Sydney 2751 (Australia); Herman Shen, M.-H. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, The Ohio State University, OH 43210 (United States)

    2014-10-15

    In order to acquire the life information of organic light emitting diode (OLED), three groups of constant stress accelerated degradation tests are performed to obtain the luminance decaying data of samples under the condition that the luminance and the current are respectively selected as the indicator of performance degradation and the test stress. Weibull function is applied to describe the relationship between luminance decaying and time, least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate the shape parameter and scale parameter, and the life prediction of OLED is achieved. The numerical results indicate that the accelerated degradation test and the luminance decaying model reveal the luminance decaying law of OLED. The luminance decaying formula fits the test data very well, and the average error of fitting value compared with the test data is small. Furthermore, the accuracy of the OLED life predicted by luminance decaying model is high, which enable rapid estimation of OLED life and provide significant guidelines to help engineers make decisions in design and manufacturing strategy from the aspect of reliability life. - Highlights: • We gain luminance decaying data by accelerated degradation tests on OLED. • The luminance decaying model objectively reveals the decaying law of OLED luminance. • The least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate Weibull parameters. • The plan designed for accelerated degradation tests proves to be feasible. • The accuracy of the OLED life and the luminance decaying fitting formula is high.

  20. Life prediction of OLED for constant-stress accelerated degradation tests using luminance decaying model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jianping; Li, Wenbin; Cheng, Guoliang; Chen, Xiao; Wu, Helen; Herman Shen, M.-H.

    2014-01-01

    In order to acquire the life information of organic light emitting diode (OLED), three groups of constant stress accelerated degradation tests are performed to obtain the luminance decaying data of samples under the condition that the luminance and the current are respectively selected as the indicator of performance degradation and the test stress. Weibull function is applied to describe the relationship between luminance decaying and time, least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate the shape parameter and scale parameter, and the life prediction of OLED is achieved. The numerical results indicate that the accelerated degradation test and the luminance decaying model reveal the luminance decaying law of OLED. The luminance decaying formula fits the test data very well, and the average error of fitting value compared with the test data is small. Furthermore, the accuracy of the OLED life predicted by luminance decaying model is high, which enable rapid estimation of OLED life and provide significant guidelines to help engineers make decisions in design and manufacturing strategy from the aspect of reliability life. - Highlights: • We gain luminance decaying data by accelerated degradation tests on OLED. • The luminance decaying model objectively reveals the decaying law of OLED luminance. • The least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate Weibull parameters. • The plan designed for accelerated degradation tests proves to be feasible. • The accuracy of the OLED life and the luminance decaying fitting formula is high

  1. Quality of life prediction in children with joint hypermobility syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacey, Verity; Tofts, Louise; Adams, Roger D; Munns, Craig F; Nicholson, Leslie L

    2015-07-01

    To assess the child- and parent-reported health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of children with joint hypermobility syndrome (JHS), to compare these with other chronic paediatric conditions and to determine whether symptoms experienced by children with JHS can predict their HRQOL. Eighty-nine children with JHS and one of their parents completed the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 Generic Core Scale, the Multidimensional Fatigue Scale and the Pediatric Pain Questionnaire. Anthropometric measures and reported symptoms were recorded. Child-reported HRQOL scores were compared with parent report, and both child- and parent-reported HRQOL scores of children with JHS were compared with those of children with other chronic conditions. Stepwise multiple regression was undertaken to determine whether any combination of measures could predict HRQOL. Parent- and child-reported HRQOL scores were strongly correlated (r = 0.6-0.84, all P children with JHS perceived lower overall HRQOL (mean difference = 4.44, P = 0.001), physical (mean difference = 7.11, P children. When considered together with previously reported HRQOL scores for children with other chronic conditions, parent and child scores were similarly strongly correlated (r = 0.93, P = 0.001). Multiple regression revealed that 75% of the variance in child-reported HRQOL scores was accounted for by a child's level of pain and fatigue, and presence of stress incontinence symptoms (P Children with JHS experience poor HRQOL and disabling fatigue, with parent scores providing a good proxy. Pain, fatigue and the presence of stress incontinence symptoms have the greatest impact on their HRQOL. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2015 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  2. Predicting quality of work life on nurses' intention to leave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Wen; Dai, Yu-Tzu; Park, Chang-Gi; McCreary, Linda L

    2013-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between quality of work life (QWL) and nurses' intention to leave their organization (ITLorg). A descriptive cross-sectional survey design was conducted using purposive sampling of 1,283 nurses at seven hospitals in Taiwan. Data were collected from March to June 2012. Three questionnaires, including the Chinese version of the Quality of Nursing Work Life scale (C-QNWL), a questionnaire of intention to leave the organization, and a demographic questionnaire, with two informed consent forms were delivered to the nurses at their workplaces. Descriptive data, Pearson's correlations, and the ordinal regression model were analyzed. Over half (52.5%) of nurses had ITLorg. Seven QWL dimensions were significantly negatively correlated with ITLorg (r = -0.17 to -0.37, p working in a nonteaching hospital. Four of the QWL dimensions--supportive milieu with job security and professional recognition, work arrangement and workload, work or home life balance, and nursing staffing and patient care--were also predictors of ITLorg. Three QWL dimensions were not predictors of ITLorg. This study showed that individual-related variables (being single, having a diploma or lower educational level), a work-related variable (working at a nonteaching hospital), and the four QWL dimensions play a significant role in nurses' ITLorg. After the QWL dimensions were added to the regression, the variance explained by the model more than doubled. To reduce nurses' ITLorg, nursing administrators may offer more focused interventions to improve the supportive milieu with job security and professional recognition, work arrangement and workload, work or home life balance, and nursing staffing and patient care. © 2013 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  3. Thermomechanical Fatigue of Ductile Cast Iron and Its Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xijia; Quan, Guangchun; MacNeil, Ryan; Zhang, Zhong; Liu, Xiaoyang; Sloss, Clayton

    2015-06-01

    Thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) behaviors of ductile cast iron (DCI) were investigated under out-of-phase (OP), in-phase (IP), and constrained strain-control conditions with temperature hold in various temperature ranges: 573 K to 1073 K, 723 K to 1073 K, and 433 K to 873 K (300 °C to 800 °C, 450 °C to 800 °C, and 160 °C to 600 °C). The integrated creep-fatigue theory (ICFT) model was incorporated into the finite element method to simulate the hysteresis behavior and predict the TMF life of DCI under those test conditions. With the consideration of four deformation/damage mechanisms: (i) plasticity-induced fatigue, (ii) intergranular embrittlement, (iii) creep, and (iv) oxidation, as revealed from the previous study on low cycle fatigue of the material, the model delineates the contributions of these physical mechanisms in the asymmetrical hysteresis behavior and the damage accumulation process leading to final TMF failure. This study shows that the ICFT model can simulate the stress-strain response and life of DCI under complex TMF loading profiles (OP and IP, and constrained with temperature hold).

  4. A summary of methods of predicting reliability life of nuclear equipment with small samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Weixian

    2000-03-01

    Some of nuclear equipment are manufactured in small batch, e.g., 1-3 sets. Their service life may be very difficult to determine experimentally in view of economy and technology. The method combining theoretical analysis with material tests to predict the life of equipment is put forward, based on that equipment consists of parts or elements which are made of different materials. The whole life of an equipment part consists of the crack forming life (i.e., the fatigue life or the damage accumulation life) and the crack extension life. Methods of predicting machine life has systematically summarized with the emphasis on those which use theoretical analysis to substitute large scale prototype experiments. Meanwhile, methods and steps of predicting reliability life have been described by taking into consideration of randomness of various variables and parameters in engineering. Finally, the latest advance and trends of machine life prediction are discussed

  5. Forecasting Significant Societal Events Using The Embers Streaming Predictive Analytics System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Andy; Katz, Graham; Summers, Kristen; Ackermann, Chris; Zavorin, Ilya; Lim, Zunsik; Muthiah, Sathappan; Butler, Patrick; Self, Nathan; Zhao, Liang; Lu, Chang-Tien; Khandpur, Rupinder Paul; Fayed, Youssef; Ramakrishnan, Naren

    2014-12-01

    Developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity Open Source Indicators program, Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates (EMBERS) is a large-scale big data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest events on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November 2012 and delivers approximately 50 predictions each day for countries of Latin America. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, loosely coupled, shared-nothing architecture using ZeroMQ as its messaging backbone and JSON as its wire data format. It is deployed on Amazon Web Services using an entirely automated deployment process. We describe the architecture of the system, some of the design tradeoffs encountered during development, and specifics of the machine learning models underlying EMBERS. We also present a detailed prospective evaluation of EMBERS in forecasting significant societal events in the past 2 years.

  6. Quality of life and adolescents' communication with their significant others (mother, father, and best friend): the mediating effect of attachment to pets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsa-Sambola, Ferran; Williams, Joanne; Muldoon, Janine; Lawrence, Alistair; Connor, Melanie; Currie, Candace

    2017-06-01

    The relationship between adolescents' communication with their significant others (mother, father, and best friend) and quality of life (KIDSCREEN) was investigated in 2262 Scottish adolescent pet owners. The variable attachment to pets was also tested and assessed as a mediator of this relationship. A positive relationship between adolescents' communication with their significant other (mother, father, and best friend) and quality of life decreased when controlling for attachment to dogs. In cat owners, a positive relationship between communication with a best friend and quality of life decreased when controlling for attachment to cats. In cat and dog owners, attachment to these pets predicted higher levels of quality of life. Higher attachment to dogs and cats was explained by good best friend (IV) and attachment to pets (DV) and best friends. Mediation effects of attachment to dogs and cats might be explained in terms of the caring activities associated with these types of pets.

  7. Probabilistic approaches to life prediction of nuclear plant structural components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villain, B.; Pitner, P.; Procaccia, H.

    1996-01-01

    In the last decade there has been an increasing interest at EDF in developing and applying probabilistic methods for a variety of purposes. In the field of structural integrity and reliability they are used to evaluate the effect of deterioration due to aging mechanisms, mainly on major passive structural components such as steam generators, pressure vessels and piping in nuclear plants. Because there can be numerous uncertainties involved in a assessment of the performance of these structural components, probabilistic methods. The benefits of a probabilistic approach are the clear treatment of uncertainly and the possibility to perform sensitivity studies from which it is possible to identify and quantify the effect of key factors and mitigative actions. They thus provide information to support effective decisions to optimize In-Service Inspection planning and maintenance strategies and for realistic lifetime prediction or reassessment. The purpose of the paper is to discuss and illustrate the methods available at EDF for probabilistic component life prediction. This includes a presentation of software tools in classical, Bayesian and structural reliability, and an application on two case studies (steam generator tube bundle, reactor pressure vessel). (authors)

  8. Probabilistic approaches to life prediction of nuclear plant structural components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villain, B.; Pitner, P.; Procaccia, H.

    1996-01-01

    In the last decade there has been an increasing interest at EDF in developing and applying probabilistic methods for a variety of purposes. In the field of structural integrity and reliability they are used to evaluate the effect of deterioration due to aging mechanisms, mainly on major passive structural components such as steam generators, pressure vessels and piping in nuclear plants. Because there can be numerous uncertainties involved in an assessment of the performance of these structural components, probabilistic methods provide an attractive alternative or supplement to more conventional deterministic methods. The benefits of a probabilistic approach are the clear treatment of uncertainty and the possibility to perform sensitivity studies from which it is possible to identify and quantify the effect of key factors and mitigative actions. They thus provide information to support effective decisions to optimize In-Service Inspection planning and maintenance strategies and for realistic lifetime prediction or reassessment. The purpose of the paper is to discuss and illustrate the methods available at EDF for probabilistic component life prediction. This includes a presentation of software tools in classical, Bayesian and structural reliability, and an application on two case studies (steam generator tube bundle, reactor pressure vessel)

  9. Betting on Life: Associations Between Significant Life Events and Gambling Trajectories Among Gamblers with the Intent to Quit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godinho, Alexandra; Kushnir, Vladyslav; Hodgins, David C; Hendershot, Christian S; Cunningham, John A

    2018-03-24

    Considerable evidence has suggested that problem gambling may be transitory and episodic, with gamblers routinely moving in and out of clinical thresholds. Findings in qualitative and quantitative studies have converged on identifying preliminary evidence for the role of life events as motivators and contributing factors for gambling changes over time. The aim of this study was to conduct an exploratory analysis of the relationship between life events, their respective experience as positive or negative, and gambling trajectories among problem gamblers intending to quit. Life event occurrence and ratings as positive or negative, and changes in gambling severity were analyzed over a 12-month period for 204 adult problem gamblers intending to reduce or quit their gambling. Overall, mixed effects models revealed several relationships between life events and both the magnitude and direction of gambling change over time. In particular, gamblers who experienced a greater number of positive events or specific events such as legal events, the adoption/loss of a child, or negative changes to their social relationships, finances, work environments or social/health activities were more likely to exhibit greater gambling reductions over time. Conversely, gamblers who experienced a greater number of negative events, such as family bereavement, the dissolution of a marriage, or negative changes to their residence exhibited smaller gambling reductions or increases in gambling severity. Possible mechanisms which may explain the findings and the importance of examining the subjective experience of life events are discussed. Recommendations for future studies examining associations between life events and gambling trajectories are provided.

  10. The Fatigue Life Prediction of Train Wheel Rims Containing Spherical Inclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yajie; Chen, Huanguo; Cai, Li; Chen, Pei; Qian, Jiacheng; Wu, Jianwei

    2018-03-01

    It is a common phenomenon that fatigue crack initiation occurs frequently in the inclusions of wheel rims. Research on the fatigue life of wheel rims with spherical inclusions is of great significance on the reliability of wheels. To find the danger point and working condition of a wheel, the stress state of the wheel rim with spherical inclusions was analyzed using the finite element method. Results revealed that curve conditions are dangerous. The critical plane method, based on the cumulative fatigue damage theory, was used to predict the fatigue life of the wheel rim and whether it contained spherical inclusions or not under curve conditions. It was found that the fatigue life of the wheel rim is significantly shorter when the wheel rim contains spherical inclusions. Analysis of the results can provide a theoretical basis and technical support for train operations and maintenance.

  11. Quality of life during orthopaedic training and academic practice: part 2: spouses and significant others.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargent, M Catherine; Sotile, Wayne; Sotile, Mary O; Rubash, Harry; Barrack, Robert L

    2012-10-03

    Orthopaedic residents and attending physicians who report having a supportive spouse show lower levels of burnout and psychological distress than those without supportive spouses. However, little is known about the experiences of the spouses. This nationwide study examines burnout, psychological distress, and marital satisfaction of the spouses and significant others (collectively referred to hereafter as spouses) of orthopaedists in training and in orthopaedic practice in an academic setting. Employing previously reported methodology, 259 spouses of orthopaedic residents and 169 spouses of full-time orthopaedic faculty completed a voluntary, anonymous survey. The survey included three validated instruments (the Maslach Burnout Inventory, the General Psychological Health Questionnaire-12, and the Revised Dyadic Adjustment Scale) and three novel question sets addressing demographic information, relationship issues, stress, and work/life balance. Psychological distress was noted in 18% of resident spouses compared with only 10% of faculty spouses (p = 0.014). Resident spouses reported greater loneliness (p < 0.0009) and stress (p = 0.03) than faculty spouses. Among working spouses, 30% of resident spouses and 13% of faculty spouses showed high levels of emotional exhaustion (p < 0.003). Twenty-eight percent of employed resident spouses and 5% of employed faculty spouses showed problematic levels of depersonalization (p < 0.0001). Twenty-six percent of employed resident spouses and 12% of employed faculty spouses showed a diminished sense of personal accomplishment (p = 0.012). Marital satisfaction was high for both resident and faculty spouses. Decreased satisfaction correlated with excessive mate irritability and fatigue that precluded their mate's involvement in family activities. A gratifying sex life, full-time work outside the home, and spending more than ninety minutes a day with their mate correlated significantly with marital satisfaction. Many orthopaedic

  12. Computational models for residual creep life prediction of power plant components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grewal, G.S.; Singh, A.K.; Ramamoortry, M.

    2006-01-01

    All high temperature - high pressure power plant components are prone to irreversible visco-plastic deformation by the phenomenon of creep. The steady state creep response as well as the total creep life of a material is related to the operational component temperature through, respectively, the exponential and inverse exponential relationships. Minor increases in the component temperature can thus have serious consequences as far as the creep life and dimensional stability of a plant component are concerned. In high temperature steam tubing in power plants, one mechanism by which a significant temperature rise can occur is by the growth of a thermally insulating oxide film on its steam side surface. In the present paper, an elegantly simple and computationally efficient technique is presented for predicting the residual creep life of steel components subjected to continual steam side oxide film growth. Similarly, fabrication of high temperature power plant components involves extensive use of welding as the fabrication process of choice. Naturally, issues related to the creep life of weldments have to be seriously addressed for safe and continual operation of the welded plant component. Unfortunately, a typical weldment in an engineering structure is a zone of complex microstructural gradation comprising of a number of distinct sub-zones with distinct meso-scale and micro-scale morphology of the phases and (even) chemistry and its creep life prediction presents considerable challenges. The present paper presents a stochastic algorithm, which can be' used for developing experimental creep-cavitation intensity versus residual life correlations for welded structures. Apart from estimates of the residual life in a mean field sense, the model can be used for predicting the reliability of the plant component in a rigorous probabilistic setting. (author)

  13. Significant interarm blood pressure difference predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: CoCoNet study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Su-A; Kim, Jang Young; Park, Jeong Bae

    2016-06-01

    There has been a rising interest in interarm blood pressure difference (IAD), due to its relationship with peripheral arterial disease and its possible relationship with cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to characterize hypertensive patients with a significant IAD in relation to cardiovascular risk. A total of 3699 patients (mean age, 61 ± 11 years) were prospectively enrolled in the study. Blood pressure (BP) was measured simultaneously in both arms 3 times using an automated cuff-oscillometric device. IAD was defined as the absolute difference in averaged BPs between the left and right arm, and an IAD ≥ 10 mm Hg was considered to be significant. The Framingham risk score was used to calculate the 10-year cardiovascular risk. The mean systolic IAD (sIAD) was 4.3 ± 4.1 mm Hg, and 285 (7.7%) patients showed significant sIAD. Patients with significant sIAD showed larger body mass index (P < 0.001), greater systolic BP (P = 0.050), more coronary artery disease (relative risk = 1.356, P = 0.034), and more cerebrovascular disease (relative risk = 1.521, P = 0.072). The mean 10-year cardiovascular risk was 9.3 ± 7.7%. By multiple regression, sIAD was significantly but weakly correlated with the 10-year cardiovascular risk (β = 0.135, P = 0.008). Patients with significant sIAD showed a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease, as well as an increase in 10-year cardiovascular risk. Therefore, accurate measurements of sIAD may serve as a simple and cost-effective tool for predicting cardiovascular risk in clinical settings.

  14. Significant interarm blood pressure difference predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Su-A; Kim, Jang Young; Park, Jeong Bae

    2016-01-01

    Abstract There has been a rising interest in interarm blood pressure difference (IAD), due to its relationship with peripheral arterial disease and its possible relationship with cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to characterize hypertensive patients with a significant IAD in relation to cardiovascular risk. A total of 3699 patients (mean age, 61 ± 11 years) were prospectively enrolled in the study. Blood pressure (BP) was measured simultaneously in both arms 3 times using an automated cuff-oscillometric device. IAD was defined as the absolute difference in averaged BPs between the left and right arm, and an IAD ≥ 10 mm Hg was considered to be significant. The Framingham risk score was used to calculate the 10-year cardiovascular risk. The mean systolic IAD (sIAD) was 4.3 ± 4.1 mm Hg, and 285 (7.7%) patients showed significant sIAD. Patients with significant sIAD showed larger body mass index (P < 0.001), greater systolic BP (P = 0.050), more coronary artery disease (relative risk = 1.356, P = 0.034), and more cerebrovascular disease (relative risk = 1.521, P = 0.072). The mean 10-year cardiovascular risk was 9.3 ± 7.7%. By multiple regression, sIAD was significantly but weakly correlated with the 10-year cardiovascular risk (β = 0.135, P = 0.008). Patients with significant sIAD showed a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease, as well as an increase in 10-year cardiovascular risk. Therefore, accurate measurements of sIAD may serve as a simple and cost-effective tool for predicting cardiovascular risk in clinical settings. PMID:27310982

  15. Bilirubin nomogram for prediction of significant hyperbilirubinemia in north Indian neonates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Umesh; Chawla, Deepak; Kaur, Saranjit; Jain, Suksham

    2013-04-01

    (i) To construct hour-specific serum total bilirubin (STB) nomogram in neonates born at =35 weeks of gestation; (ii)To evaluate efficacy of pre-discharge bilirubin measurement in predicting hyperbilirubinemia needing treatment. Diagnostic test performance in a prospective cohort study. Teaching hospital in Northern India. Healthy neonates with gestation =35 weeks or birth weight =2000 g. Serum total bilirubin was measured in all enrolled neonates at 24 ± 6, 72-96 and 96-144 h of postnatal age and when indicated clinically. Neonates were followed up during hospital stay and after discharge till completion of 7th postnatal day. Key outcome was significant hyperbilirubinemia (SHB) defined as need of phototherapy based on modified American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) guidelines. In neonates born at 38 or more weeks of gestation middle line and in neonates born at 37 or less completed weeks of gestation, lower line of phototherapy thresholds were used to initiate phototherapy. For construction of nomogram, STB values were clubbed in six-hour epochs (age ± 3 hours) for postnatal age up to 48 h and twelve-hour epochs (age ± 6 hours) for age beyond 48 h. Predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and likelihood ratio, by plotting receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calculating c-statistic. 997 neonates (birth weight: 2627 ± 536 g, gestation: 37.8 ± 1.5 weeks) were enrolled, of which 931 completed followup. Among enrolled neonates 344 (34.5%) were low birth weight. Rate of exclusive breastfeeding during hospital stay was more than 80%. Bilirubin nomogram was constructed using 40th, 75th and 95th percentile values of hour-specific bilirubin. Pre-discharge STB of =95th percentile was assigned to be in high-risk zone, between 75th and 94th centile in upper-intermediate risk zone, between 40th and 74th centile in lower-intermediate risk zone and below 40th

  16. Mapping Soil Properties of Africa at 250 m Resolution: Random Forests Significantly Improve Current Predictions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomislav Hengl

    Full Text Available 80% of arable land in Africa has low soil fertility and suffers from physical soil problems. Additionally, significant amounts of nutrients are lost every year due to unsustainable soil management practices. This is partially the result of insufficient use of soil management knowledge. To help bridge the soil information gap in Africa, the Africa Soil Information Service (AfSIS project was established in 2008. Over the period 2008-2014, the AfSIS project compiled two point data sets: the Africa Soil Profiles (legacy database and the AfSIS Sentinel Site database. These data sets contain over 28 thousand sampling locations and represent the most comprehensive soil sample data sets of the African continent to date. Utilizing these point data sets in combination with a large number of covariates, we have generated a series of spatial predictions of soil properties relevant to the agricultural management--organic carbon, pH, sand, silt and clay fractions, bulk density, cation-exchange capacity, total nitrogen, exchangeable acidity, Al content and exchangeable bases (Ca, K, Mg, Na. We specifically investigate differences between two predictive approaches: random forests and linear regression. Results of 5-fold cross-validation demonstrate that the random forests algorithm consistently outperforms the linear regression algorithm, with average decreases of 15-75% in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE across soil properties and depths. Fitting and running random forests models takes an order of magnitude more time and the modelling success is sensitive to artifacts in the input data, but as long as quality-controlled point data are provided, an increase in soil mapping accuracy can be expected. Results also indicate that globally predicted soil classes (USDA Soil Taxonomy, especially Alfisols and Mollisols help improve continental scale soil property mapping, and are among the most important predictors. This indicates a promising potential for transferring

  17. Remaining useful life prediction based on noisy condition monitoring signals using constrained Kalman filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, Junbo; Zhou, Shiyu; Sankavaram, Chaitanya; Du, Xinyu; Zhang, Yilu

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a statistical prognostic method to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of individual units based on noisy condition monitoring signals is proposed. The prediction accuracy of existing data-driven prognostic methods depends on the capability of accurately modeling the evolution of condition monitoring (CM) signals. Therefore, it is inevitable that the RUL prediction accuracy depends on the amount of random noise in CM signals. When signals are contaminated by a large amount of random noise, RUL prediction even becomes infeasible in some cases. To mitigate this issue, a robust RUL prediction method based on constrained Kalman filter is proposed. The proposed method models the CM signals subject to a set of inequality constraints so that satisfactory prediction accuracy can be achieved regardless of the noise level of signal evolution. The advantageous features of the proposed RUL prediction method is demonstrated by both numerical study and case study with real world data from automotive lead-acid batteries. - Highlights: • A computationally efficient constrained Kalman filter is proposed. • Proposed filter is integrated into an online failure prognosis framework. • A set of proper constraints significantly improves the failure prediction accuracy. • Promising results are reported in the application of battery failure prognosis.

  18. Physical activity predicts quality of life and happiness in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, Carol Ann; Toohey, Monica; Ferguson, Monika

    2016-01-01

    To examine the associations between physical activity, health-related quality of life and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. A total of 70 young people with cerebral palsy (45 males, 25 females; mean age 13 years 11 months, SD 2 years 0 month) took part in a cross-sectional, descriptive postal survey assessing physical activity (Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents), functional ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System), quality of life (Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0) and happiness (single Likert-scale item). Relationships between physical activity, quality of life and happiness were examined using backward stepwise linear regression. Physical activity significantly predicted physical quality of life (R(2 )= 0.64, β = 6.12, p = 0.02), social quality of life (R(2 )= 0.28, β = 9.27, p happiness (R(2 )= 0.08, β = 0.9, p = 0.04). Physical activity was not associated with emotional or school quality of life. This study found a positive association between physical activity, social and physical quality of life, and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. Findings underscore the potential benefits of physical activity for the wellbeing of young people with cerebral palsy, in addition to its well-recognised physical and health benefits. Physical activity is a key predictor of quality of life and happiness in young people with cerebral palsy. Physical activity is widely recognised as having physical health benefits for young people with cerebral palsy; however, this study also highlights that it may have important benefits for wellbeing, quality of life and happiness. This emphasises the need for clinical services and intervention studies aimed specifically at increasing physical activity amongst children and adolescents with cerebral palsy.

  19. Predicting quality of life in pediatric asthma: the role of emotional competence and personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahaye, Magali; Van Broeck, Nady; Bodart, Eddy; Luminet, Olivier

    2013-05-01

    The present study examined the predictive value of emotional competence and the five-factor model of personality on the quality of life of children with asthma. Participants were 90 children (M age = 11.73, SD = 2.60) having controlled and partly controlled asthma, undergoing everyday treatment. Children filled in questionnaires assessing emotional competence and quality of life. Parents completed questionnaires assessing the personality of their child. Results showed that two emotional competences, bodily awareness and verbal sharing of emotions, were related to the quality of life of children with asthma. Moreover, one personality trait, benevolence, was associated with children's quality of life. Regression analyses showed that the predictive value of these three dimensions remained significant over and above asthma control and socio-demographic variables frequently associated with the quality of life of children with asthma (age, gender, and educational level of parents). These findings emphasize the importance of alerting the clinician who works with children with asthma to observe and assess the child's expression of emotions, attention to bodily sensations, and benevolence.

  20. Integrated Design Software Predicts the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramic Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-01-01

    Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated-temperature applications. As design protocols emerge for these material systems, designers must be aware of several innate features, including the degrading ability of ceramics to carry sustained load. Usually, time-dependent failure in ceramics occurs because of two different, delayedfailure mechanisms: slow crack growth and creep rupture. Slow crack growth initiates at a preexisting flaw and continues until a critical crack length is reached, causing catastrophic failure. Creep rupture, on the other hand, occurs because of bulk damage in the material: void nucleation and coalescence that eventually leads to macrocracks which then propagate to failure. Successful application of advanced ceramics depends on proper characterization of material behavior and the use of an appropriate design methodology. The life of a ceramic component can be predicted with the NASA Lewis Research Center's Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) integrated design programs. CARES/CREEP determines the expected life of a component under creep conditions, and CARES/LIFE predicts the component life due to fast fracture and subcritical crack growth. The previously developed CARES/LIFE program has been used in numerous industrial and Government applications.

  1. The significance of collateral vessels, as seen on chest CT, in predicting SVC obstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeouk, Young Soo; Kim, Sung Jin; Bae, Il Hun; Kim, Jae Youn; Hwang, Seung Min; Han, Gi Seok; Park, Kil Sun; Kim, Dae Young

    1998-01-01

    To evaluate the significance of collateral veins, as seen on chest CT, in the diagnosis of superior vena cava obstruction. We retrospectively the records of 81 patients in whom collateral veins were seen on chest CT. On spiral CT(n=49), contrast material was infused via power injector, and on conventional CT(n=32), 50 ml bolus infusion was followed by 50 ml drip infusion. Obstruction of the SVC was evaluated on chest CT; if, however, evaluation of the SVC of its major tributaries was difficult, as in five cases, the patient underwent SVC phlebography. Collateral vessels were assigned to one of ten categories. On conventional CT, the jugular venous arch in the only collateral vessel to predict SVC obstruction; on spiral CT, however, collateral vessels are not helpful in the diagnosis of SVC obstruction, but are a nonspecific finding. (author). 12 refs., 2 tab., 2 figs

  2. The prognostic significance of UCA1 for predicting clinical outcome in patients with digestive system malignancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fang-Teng; Dong, Qing; Gao, Hui; Zhu, Zheng-Ming

    2017-06-20

    Urothelial Carcinoma Associated 1 (UCA1) was an originally identified lncRNA in bladder cancer. Previous studies have reported that UCA1 played a significant role in various types of cancer. This study aimed to clarify the prognostic value of UCA1 in digestive system cancers. The meta-analysis of 15 studies were included, comprising 1441 patients with digestive system cancers. The pooled results of 14 studies indicated that high expression of UCA1 was significantly associated with poorer OS in patients with digestive system cancers (HR: 1.89, 95 % CI: 1.52-2.26). In addition, UCA1 could be as an independent prognostic factor for predicting OS of patients (HR: 1.85, 95 % CI: 1.45-2.25). The pooled results of 3 studies indicated a significant association between UCA1 and DFS in patients with digestive system cancers (HR = 2.50; 95 % CI = 1.30-3.69). Statistical significance was also observed in subgroup meta-analysis. Furthermore, the clinicopathological values of UCA1 were discussed in esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer. A comprehensive retrieval was performed to search studies evaluating the prognostic value of UCA1 in digestive system cancers. Many databases were involved, including PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang database. Quantitative meta-analysis was performed with standard statistical methods and the prognostic significance of UCA1 in digestive system cancers was qualified. Elevated level of UCA1 indicated the poor clinical outcome for patients with digestive system cancers. It may serve as a new biomarker related to prognosis in digestive system cancers.

  3. Research on bearing life prediction based on support vector machine and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Chuang; Zhang Zhousuo; He Zhengjia

    2011-01-01

    Life prediction of rolling element bearing is the urgent demand in engineering practice, and the effective life prediction technique is beneficial to predictive maintenance. Support vector machine (SVM) is a novel machine learning method based on statistical learning theory, and is of advantage in prediction. This paper develops SVM-based model for bearing life prediction. The inputs of the model are features of bearing vibration signal and the output is the bearing running time-bearing failure time ratio. The model is built base on a few failed bearing data, and it can fuse information of the predicted bearing. So it is of advantage to bearing life prediction in practice. The model is applied to life prediction of a bearing, and the result shows the proposed model is of high precision.

  4. Ways that Social Change Predicts Personal Quality of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Chau-Kiu; Leung, Kwok

    2010-01-01

    A notable way that social change affects personal quality of life would rely on the person's experience with social change. This experience may influence societal quality of life and quality of work life, which may in turn affect personal quality of life. Additionally, the experience of social change is possibly less detrimental to personal…

  5. Signs and the design of life - Uexküll's significance today : a symposium, its significant history and future / Torsten Rüting

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Rüting, Torsten

    2004-01-01

    2004. aastal tähistati mitut Jakob von Uexkülli tähtpäeva - 140. sünniaastapäeva, 60. surmaaastapäeva ja 70 aasta möödumist tema kuulsa teose "Jalutuskäik läbi loomade ja inimeste omailma" avaldamisest. Selle tähistamiseks korraldati Hamburgis sümpoosion "Signs and design of life - Uexküll`s significance today" (9.1.2004.a.)

  6. Menopausal symptoms: do life events predict severity of symptoms in peri- and post-menopause?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimenta, Filipa; Leal, Isabel; Maroco, João; Ramos, Catarina

    2012-08-01

    Hormonal changes during menopausal transition are linked to physical and psychological symptoms' emergence. This study aims to explore if life events predict menopausal symptoms. This cross-sectional research encompasses a community sample of 992 women who answered to socio-demographic, health, menopause-related and lifestyle questionnaires; menopausal symptoms and life events were assessed with validated instruments. Structural equation modeling was used to build a causal model. Menopausal status predicted only three symptoms: skin/facial hair changes (β=.136; p=.020), sexual (β=.157; p=.004) and, marginally, vasomotor symptoms (β=.094; p=.054). Life events predicted depressive mood (β=-.391; p=.002), anxiety (β=-.271; p=.003), perceived cognitive impairment (β=-.295; p=.003), body shape changes (β=-.136; p=.031), aches/pain (β=-.212; p=.007), skin/facial hair changes (β=-.171; p=.021), numbness (β=-.169; p=.015), perceived loss of control (β=-.234; p=.008), mouth, nails and hair changes (β=-.290; p=.004), vasomotor (β=-.113; p=.044) and sexual symptoms (β=-.208; p=.009). Although women in peri- and post-menopausal manifested higher symptoms' severity than their pre-menopausal counterparts, only three of the menopausal symptoms assessed were predicted by menopausal status. Since the vast majority of menopausal symptoms' severity was significantly influenced by the way women perceived their recent life events, it is concluded that the symptomatology exacerbation, in peri- and post-menopausal women, might be due to life conditions and events, rather than hormonal changes (nonetheless, the inverse influence should be investigated in future studies). Therefore, these should be accounted for in menopause-related clinical and research settings. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. International Space Station Bacteria Filter Element Post-Flight Testing and Service Life Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, J. L.; von Jouanne, R. G.; Turner, E. H.

    2003-01-01

    The International Space Station uses high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters to remove particulate matter from the cabin atmosphere. Known as Bacteria Filter Elements (BFEs), there are 13 elements deployed on board the ISS's U.S. Segment. The pre-flight service life prediction of 1 year for the BFEs is based upon performance engineering analysis of data collected during developmental testing that used a synthetic dust challenge. While this challenge is considered reasonable and conservative from a design perspective, an understanding of the actual filter loading is required to best manage the critical ISS Program resources. Thus testing was conducted on BFEs returned from the ISS to refine the service life prediction. Results from this testing and implications to ISS resource management are discussed. Recommendations for realizing significant savings to the ISS Program are presented.

  8. Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction of Bridge Cables Based on Multiscaling and Mesoscopic Fracture Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongxiang Liu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Fatigue fracture of bridge stay-cables is usually a multiscale process as the crack grows from micro-scale to macro-scale. Such a process, however, is highly uncertain. In order to make a rational prediction of the residual life of bridge cables, a probabilistic fatigue approach is proposed, based on a comprehensive vehicle load model, finite element analysis and multiscaling and mesoscopic fracture mechanics. Uncertainties in both material properties and external loads are considered. The proposed method is demonstrated through the fatigue life prediction of cables of the Runyang Cable-Stayed Bridge in China, and it is found that cables along the bridge spans may have significantly different fatigue lives, and due to the variability, some of them may have shorter lives than those as expected from the design.

  9. Significance of SYT8 For the Detection, Prediction, and Treatment of Peritoneal Metastasis From Gastric Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, Mitsuro; Shimizu, Dai; Tanaka, Haruyoshi; Tanaka, Chie; Kobayashi, Daisuke; Hayashi, Masamichi; Iwata, Naoki; Niwa, Yukiko; Yamada, Suguru; Fujii, Tsutomu; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Murotani, Kenta; Fujiwara, Michitaka; Kodera, Yasuhiro

    2018-03-01

    To develop novel diagnostic and therapeutic targets specific for peritoneal metastasis of gastric cancer (GC). Advanced GC frequently recurs because of undetected micrometastases even after curative resection. Peritoneal metastasis has been the most frequent recurrent pattern after gastrectomy and is incurable. We conducted a recurrence pattern-specific transcriptome analysis in an independent cohort of 16 patients with stage III GC who underwent curative gastrectomy and adjuvant S-1 for screening candidate molecules specific for peritoneal metastasis of GC. Next, another 340 patients were allocated to discovery and validation sets (1:2) to evaluate the diagnostic and predictive value of the candidate molecule. The results of quantitative reverse-transcription PCR and immunohistochemical analysis were correlated with clinical characteristics and survival. The effects of siRNA-mediated knockdown on phenotype and fluorouracil sensitivity of GC cells were evaluated in vitro, and the therapeutic effects of siRNAs were evaluated using a mouse xenograft model. Synaptotagmin VIII (SYT8) was identified as a candidate biomarker specific to peritoneal metastasis. In the discovery set, the optimal cut-off of SYT8 expression was established as 0.005. Expression levels of SYT8 mRNA in GC tissues were elevated in the validation set comprising patients with peritoneal recurrence or metastasis. SYT8 levels above the cut-off value were significantly and specifically associated with peritoneal metastasis, and served as an independent prognostic marker for peritoneal recurrence-free survival of patients with stage II/III GC. The survival difference between patients with SYT8 levels above and below the cut-off was associated with patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy. Inhibition of SYT8 expression by GC cells correlated with decreased invasion, migration, and fluorouracil resistance. Intraperitoneal administration of SYT8-siRNA inhibited the growth of peritoneal nodules and

  10. Predicting Intentions of a Familiar Significant Other Beyond the Mirror Neuron System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Cacioppo

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Inferring intentions of others is one of the most intriguing issues in interpersonal interaction. Theories of embodied cognition and simulation suggest that this mechanism takes place through a direct and automatic matching process that occurs between an observed action and past actions. This process occurs via the reactivation of past self-related sensorimotor experiences within the inferior frontoparietal network (including the mirror neuron system, MNS. The working model is that the anticipatory representations of others' behaviors require internal predictive models of actions formed from pre-established, shared representations between the observer and the actor. This model suggests that observers should be better at predicting intentions performed by a familiar actor, rather than a stranger. However, little is known about the modulations of the intention brain network as a function of the familiarity between the observer and the actor. Here, we combined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI with a behavioral intention inference task, in which participants were asked to predict intentions from three types of actors: A familiar actor (their significant other, themselves (another familiar actor, and a non-familiar actor (a stranger. Our results showed that the participants were better at inferring intentions performed by familiar actors than non-familiar actors and that this better performance was associated with greater activation within and beyond the inferior frontoparietal network i.e., in brain areas related to familiarity (e.g., precuneus. In addition, and in line with Hebbian principles of neural modulations, the more the participants reported being cognitively close to their partner, the less the brain areas associated with action self-other comparison (e.g., inferior parietal lobule, attention (e.g., superior parietal lobule, recollection (hippocampus, and pair bond (ventral tegmental area, VTA were recruited, suggesting that the

  11. Prediction of Combine Economic Life Based on Repair and Maintenance Costs Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Rohani

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Farm machinery managers often need to make complex economic decisions on machinery replacement. Repair and maintenance costs can have significant impacts on this economic decision. The farm manager must be able to predict farm machinery repair and maintenance costs. This study aimed to identify a regression model that can adequately represent the repair and maintenance costs in terms of machine age in cumulative hours of use. The regression model has the ability to predict the repair and maintenance costs for longer time periods. Therefore, it can be used for the estimation of the economic life. The study was conducted using field data collected from 11 John-Deer 955 combine harvesters used in several western provinces of Iran. It was found that power model has a better performance for the prediction of combine repair and maintenance costs. The results showed that the optimum replacement age of John-Deer 955 combine was 54300 cumulative hours.

  12. Prediction of cladding life in waste package environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCoy, J.K.; Doering, T.W.

    1994-01-01

    Fuel cladding can potentially provide longer containment or slower release of radionuclides from spent fuel after geologic disposal. To predict the amount of benefit that cladding can provide, we surveyed degradation modes and developed a model for creep rupture by diffusion-controlled cavity growth, the mechanism that several authors have concluded is the most important. In this mechanism, voids nucleate on the grain boundaries and grow by diffusion of vacancies along the grain boundaries to the voids. When a certain fraction of the grain boundary area is covered with voids, the material fails. An analytic expression for cladding lifetime is developed. Besides materials constants, the predicted lifetime depends on the temperature history, the hoop stress in the cladding, the spacing between void nuclei, and the micro-structure. The inclusion of microstructure is a significant new feature of the model; this feature is used to help avoid excessive conservatism. The model is applied in a sample calculation for disposal of spent fuel, and the practice of using temperature limits to evaluate repository designs is examined

  13. A New Energy-Critical Plane Damage Parameter for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Turbine Blades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng-Yong Yu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available As one of fracture critical components of an aircraft engine, accurate life prediction of a turbine blade to disk attachment is significant for ensuring the engine structural integrity and reliability. Fatigue failure of a turbine blade is often caused under multiaxial cyclic loadings at high temperatures. In this paper, considering different failure types, a new energy-critical plane damage parameter is proposed for multiaxial fatigue life prediction, and no extra fitted material constants will be needed for practical applications. Moreover, three multiaxial models with maximum damage parameters on the critical plane are evaluated under tension-compression and tension-torsion loadings. Experimental data of GH4169 under proportional and non-proportional fatigue loadings and a case study of a turbine disk-blade contact system are introduced for model validation. Results show that model predictions by Wang-Brown (WB and Fatemi-Socie (FS models with maximum damage parameters are conservative and acceptable. For the turbine disk-blade contact system, both of the proposed damage parameters and Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT model show reasonably acceptable correlations with its field number of flight cycles. However, life estimations of the turbine blade reveal that the definition of the maximum damage parameter is not reasonable for the WB model but effective for both the FS and SWT models.

  14. Spatially resolved flux measurements of NOx from London suggest significantly higher emissions than predicted by inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Adam R; Lee, James D; Misztal, Pawel K; Metzger, Stefan; Shaw, Marvin D; Lewis, Alastair C; Purvis, Ruth M; Carslaw, David C; Goldstein, Allen H; Hewitt, C Nicholas; Davison, Brian; Beevers, Sean D; Karl, Thomas G

    2016-07-18

    To date, direct validation of city-wide emissions inventories for air pollutants has been difficult or impossible. However, recent technological innovations now allow direct measurement of pollutant fluxes from cities, for comparison with emissions inventories, which are themselves commonly used for prediction of current and future air quality and to help guide abatement strategies. Fluxes of NOx were measured using the eddy-covariance technique from an aircraft flying at low altitude over London. The highest fluxes were observed over central London, with lower fluxes measured in suburban areas. A footprint model was used to estimate the spatial area from which the measured emissions occurred. This allowed comparison of the flux measurements to the UK's National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) for NOx, with scaling factors used to account for the actual time of day, day of week and month of year of the measurement. The comparison suggests significant underestimation of NOx emissions in London by the NAEI, mainly due to its under-representation of real world road traffic emissions. A comparison was also carried out with an enhanced version of the inventory using real world driving emission factors and road measurement data taken from the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI). The measurement to inventory agreement was substantially improved using the enhanced version, showing the importance of fully accounting for road traffic, which is the dominant NOx emission source in London. In central London there was still an underestimation by the inventory of 30-40% compared with flux measurements, suggesting significant improvements are still required in the NOx emissions inventory.

  15. Evaluating clinically significant changes in health-related quality of life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Norup, Anne; Kristensen, Karin Spangsberg; Poulsen, Ingrid

    2017-01-01

    The objective of the study was to investigate change and predictors of change in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in relatives of patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) during rehabilitation, and to analyse associations between changes in HRQoL and symptoms of anxiety...

  16. Significance and role of imagination in the life of modern person

    OpenAIRE

    Ирина Аркадиевна Кадиевская

    2016-01-01

    In the article it is proved that the formation of gloomy morbid imagination is dangerous to human life and health, while the development of a positive optimistic creative imagination contrary is justified and useful. Results in this direction have shown methods like autogenic training (AT), biofeedback (BFB), meditation, psychomuscular, ideamotor, visuomotor training etc.

  17. 76 FR 12399 - Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: “Paris: Life & Luxury”

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-07

    ... the exhibition ``Paris: Life & Luxury,'' imported from abroad for temporary exhibition within the... objects at the J. Paul Getty Museum, Los Angeles, California, from on or about April 26, 2011, until on or about August 7, 2011, the Museum of Fine Arts, Houston, Texas, from on or about [[Page 12400

  18. Significance and role of imagination in the life of modern person

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ирина Аркадиевна Кадиевская

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the article it is proved that the formation of gloomy morbid imagination is dangerous to human life and health, while the development of a positive optimistic creative imagination contrary is justified and useful. Results in this direction have shown methods like autogenic training (AT, biofeedback (BFB, meditation, psychomuscular, ideamotor, visuomotor training etc.

  19. Significant Life Experiences on the Formation of Environmental Action among Chinese College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Danqing; Chen, Jin

    2015-01-01

    Determining the factors that influence young adults' engagement in environmental action is critical to further developing their active and important participation in environmental issues. In this paper, we designed two studies to identify life experiences of Chinese college students that foster environmental action. In Study 1, we used an…

  20. Gas Generation in Radioactive Wastes - MAGGAS Predictive Life Cycle Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streatfield, R.E.; Hebditch, D.J.; Swift, B.T.; Hoch, A.R.; Constable, M.

    2006-01-01

    Gases may form from radioactive waste in quantities posing different potential hazards throughout the waste package life cycle. The latter includes surface storage, transport, placing in an operating repository, storage in the repository prior to backfill, closure and the post-closure stage. Potentially hazardous situations involving gas include fire, flood, dropped packages, blocked package vents and disruption to a sealed repository. The MAGGAS (Magnox Gas generation) model was developed to assess gas formation for safety assessments during all stages of the waste package life cycle. This is a requirement of the U.K. regulatory authorities and Nirex and progress in this context is discussed. The processes represented in the model include: Corrosion, microbial degradation, radiolysis, solid-state diffusion, chemico-physical degradation and pressurisation. The calculation was split into three time periods. First the 'aerobic phase' is used to model the periods of surface storage, transport and repository operations including storage in the repository prior to backfill. The second and third periods were designated 'anaerobic phase 1' and 'anaerobic phase 2' and used to model the waste packages in the post-closure phase of the repository. The various significant gas production processes are modeled in each phase. MAGGAS (currently Version 8) is mounted on an Excel spreadsheet for ease of use and speed, has 22 worksheets and is operated routinely for assessing waste packages (e.g. for ventilation of stores and pressurisation of containers). Ten operational and decommissioning generic nuclear power station waste streams were defined as initial inputs, which included ion exchange materials, sludges and concentrates, fuel element debris, graphite debris, activated components, contaminated items, desiccants and catalysts. (authors)

  1. Ambulation in adults with myelomeningocele. Is it possible to predict the level of ambulation in early life?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seitzberg, A.; Lind, M.; Biering-Sørensen, Fin

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the prediction of ambulation in adults with myelomeningocele from muscle strength testing and ambulation in early life. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty-two myelomeningocele (MMC) individuals at the age 18-37 years at follow-up were studied....... Information on muscle strength and ambulatory function in early life was retrieved from medical records. The motor levels determined by the muscle strength were used to predict ambulatory function later in life. At follow-up, a clinical examination was performed. RESULTS: Of 20 MMC individuals assessed...... life than predicted. Good strength in quadriceps muscles gave significant better prospect for adult walking. Of the 52 participants, 41 retained their ambulation status from 5-8 years of age. CONCLUSION: For MMC individuals with motor levels L3-L5, adult ambulatory function cannot be determined from...

  2. Screw Remaining Life Prediction Based on Quantum Genetic Algorithm and Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaochen Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To predict the remaining life of ball screw, a screw remaining life prediction method based on quantum genetic algorithm (QGA and support vector machine (SVM is proposed. A screw accelerated test bench is introduced. Accelerometers are installed to monitor the performance degradation of ball screw. Combined with wavelet packet decomposition and isometric mapping (Isomap, the sensitive feature vectors are obtained and stored in database. Meanwhile, the sensitive feature vectors are randomly chosen from the database and constitute training samples and testing samples. Then the optimal kernel function parameter and penalty factor of SVM are searched with the method of QGA. Finally, the training samples are used to train optimized SVM while testing samples are adopted to test the prediction accuracy of the trained SVM so the screw remaining life prediction model can be got. The experiment results show that the screw remaining life prediction model could effectively predict screw remaining life.

  3. Predicting Community College Outcomes: Does High School CTE Participation Have a Significant Effect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Cecile; Lichtenberger, Eric; Kamalludeen, Rosemaliza

    2016-01-01

    This study explored the relative importance of participation in high school career and technical education (CTE) programs in predicting community college outcomes. A hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was used to predict community college outcome attainment among a random sample of direct community college entrants. Results show that…

  4. Predicting Bullying: Exploring the Contributions of Childhood Negative Life Experiences in Predicting Adolescent Bullying Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connell, Nadine M; Morris, Robert G; Piquero, Alex R

    2016-07-01

    Although there has been much interest in research on aggression and in particular bullying, a relatively less charted area of research has centered on articulating a better understanding of the mechanisms and processes by which persons are at increased risk for bullying. Furthermore, those studies that have investigated the linkages between childhood experiences and bullying perpetration have been limited with respect to definitional and operational issues, reliance on cross-sectional data, and the lack of assessing competing explanations of bullying perpetration. Using five waves of data from a community-based longitudinal sample of children followed through age 18 (N = 763), the current study examines the extent to which childhood negative life events in a variety of domains predict adolescent bullying. Results show that early childhood experiences, particularly those within the family and school domains, may alter life trajectories and can act as predictors for later adolescent bullying, thereby underscoring the potential importance that relatively minor experiences can have over the long term. Implications for future research based on these analyses are examined. © The Author(s) 2015.

  5. Development of a clinical prediction model to calculate patient life expectancy: the measure of actuarial life expectancy (MALE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, M G; Kennedy, K P; MacDonagh, R P

    2009-01-01

    To develop a clinical prediction model enabling the calculation of an individual patient's life expectancy (LE) and survival probability based on age, sex, and comorbidity for use in the joint decision-making process regarding medical treatment. A computer software program was developed with a team of 3 clinicians, 2 professional actuaries, and 2 professional computer programmers. This incorporated statistical spreadsheet and database access design methods. Data sources included life insurance industry actuarial rating factor tables (public and private domain), Government Actuary Department UK life tables, professional actuarial sources, and evidence-based medical literature. The main outcome measures were numerical and graphical display of comorbidity-adjusted LE; 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival probability; in addition to generic UK population LE. Nineteen medical conditions, which impacted significantly on LE in actuarial terms and were commonly encountered in clinical practice, were incorporated in the final model. Numerical and graphical representations of statistical predictions of LE and survival probability were successfully generated for patients with either no comorbidity or a combination of the 19 medical conditions included. Validation and testing, including actuarial peer review, confirmed consistency with the data sources utilized. The evidence-based actuarial data utilized in this computer program design represent a valuable resource for use in the clinical decision-making process, where an accurate objective assessment of patient LE can so often make the difference between patients being offered or denied medical and surgical treatment. Ongoing development to incorporate additional comorbidities and enable Web-based access will enhance its use further.

  6. The prognostic significance of HOTAIR for predicting clinical outcome in patients with digestive system tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Gaoxiang; Wang, Qiaoyan; Lv, Chunye; Qiang, Fulin; Hua, Qiuhan; Chu, Haiyan; Du, Mulong; Tong, Na; Jiang, Yejuan; Wang, Meilin; Zhang, Zhengdong; Wang, Jian; Gong, Weida

    2015-12-01

    Although some studies have assessed the prognostic value of HOTAIR in patients with digestive system tumors, the relationship between the HOTAIR and outcome of digestive system tumors remains unknown. The PubMed was searched to identify the eligible studies. Here, we performed a meta-analysis with 11 studies, including a total of 903 cases. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) of HOTAIR for cancer survival were calculated. We found that the pooled HR elevated HOTAIR expression in tumor tissues was 2.36 (95 % CI 1.88-2.97) compared with patients with low HOTAIR expression. Moreover, subgroup analysis revealed that HOTAIR overexpression was also markedly associated with short survival for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (HR 2.19, 95 % CI 1.62-2.94) and gastric cancer (HR 1.66, 95 % CI 1.02-2.68). In addition, up-regulated HOTAIR was significantly related to survival of digestive system cancer among the studies with more follow-up time (follow time ≥ 5 years) (HR 2.51, 95 % CI 1.99-3.17). When stratified by HR resource and number of patients, the result indicated consistent results with the overall analysis. Subgroup analysis on ethnicities did not change the prognostic influence of elevated HOTAIR expression. Additionally, we conducted an independent validation cohort including 71 gastric cancer cases, in which patients with up-regulated HOTAIR expression had an unfavorable outcome with HR of 2.10 (95 % CI 1.10-4.03). The results suggest that aberrant HOTAIR expression may serve as a candidate positive marker to predict the prognosis of patients with carcinoma of digestive system.

  7. Mexico's Epidemic of Violence and Its Public Health Significance on Average Length of Life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Aburto, José Manuel; García-Guerrero, Victor Manual

    2017-01-01

    levels, respectively. In 2014, female life expectancy at age 20 was 59.5 years (95% CI 59.0 to 60.1); 71% of these years (42.3 years, 41.6 to 43.0) were spent with perceived vulnerability of violence taking place in the state and 26% at the home (15.3 years, 15 to 15.8). For males, life expectancy at age...... 20 was 54.5 years (53.7 to 55.1); 64% of these years (34.6 years, 34.0 to 35.4) were lived with perceived vulnerability of violence at the state and 20% at the home (11.1 years, 10.8 to 11.5). Conclusions The number of years lived with perceived vulnerability among Mexicans has increased by 30.......5 million person-years over the last 10 years. If perceived vulnerability remains at its 2014 level, the average Mexican adults would be expected to live a large fraction of his/her life with perceived vulnerability of violence. Acts of violence continue to rise in the country and they should be addressed...

  8. Shelf life prediction of apple brownies using accelerated method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulungan, M. H.; Sukmana, A. D.; Dewi, I. A.

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this research was to determine shelf life of apple brownies. Shelf life was determined with Accelerated Shelf Life Testing method and Arrhenius equation. Experiment was conducted at 25, 35, and 45°C for 30 days. Every five days, the sample was analysed for free fatty acid (FFA), water activity (Aw), and organoleptic acceptance (flavour, aroma, and texture). The shelf life of the apple brownies based on FFA were 110, 54, and 28 days at temperature of 25, 35, and 45°C, respectively.

  9. Do Proxies for the Neurotransmitter Cortisol Predict Adaptation to Life with Chronic Pain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deamond, Wade

    Among the numerous difficulties encountered by chronic pain patients, impulsive and dysfunctional decision-making complicate their already difficult life situations yet remains relatively understudied. This study examined a recently published neurobiological decision making model that identifies eight specific neurotransmitters and hormones (Dopamine, Testosterone, Endogenous Opioids Glutamate, Serotonin, Norepinephrine, Cortisol, and GABA) linked to unsound decision making related to cognitive, motivational and emotional dysregulation (Nussbaum et al., 2011) (see Appendix 2). The Perceived Stress Scale (PSS), a proxy for the cortisol element in the pharmacological decision making model was analyzed for the neurotransmitter's relationship to functionality and quality of life in a group of 37 chronic pain patients. Participants were comprised of males and females ranging from 23 to 52 years of age and were classified with respect to levels of adjustment to living with chronic pain based on the Quality of Life Scale (QLS), the Dartmouth WONCA COOP Charts and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF). The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Frontal System Behavioral Scale (FSBS) measured decision making related to immediate gratification and daily living respectively. Results suggest that emotional dysregulation, as measured by the PSS is a significant predictor for adaptation to life with chronic pain and the PSS is superior to predicting adaptation to life with chronic pain than reported levels of pain as measured by the McGill Pain Questionnaire.

  10. Psychological approach to successful ageing predicts future quality of life in older adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iliffe Steve

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Public policies aim to promote well-being, and ultimately the quality of later life. Positive perspectives of ageing are underpinned by a range of appraoches to successful ageing. This study aimed to investigate whether baseline biological, psychological and social aproaches to successful ageing predicted future QoL. Methods Postal follow-up in 2007/8 of a national random sample of 999 people aged 65 and over in 1999/2000. Of 496 valid addresses of survivors at follow-up, the follow-up response rate was 58% (287. Measures of the different concepts of successful ageing were constructed using baseline indicators. They were assessed for their ability to independently predict quality of life at follow-up. Results Few respondents achieved all good scores within each of the approaches to successful ageing. Each approach was associated with follow-up QoL when their scores were analysed continuously. The biomedical (health approach failed to achieve significance when the traditional dichotomous cut-off point for successfully aged (full health, or not (less than full health, was used. In multiple regression analyses of the relative predictive ability of each approach, only the psychological approach (perceived self-efficacy and optimism retained significance. Conclusion Only the psychological approach to successful ageing independently predicted QoL at follow-up. Successful ageing is not only about the maintenance of health, but about maximising one's psychological resources, namely self-efficacy and resilience. Increasing use of preventive care, better medical management of morbidity, and changing lifestyles in older people may have beneficial effects on health and longevity, but may not improve their QoL. Adding years to life and life to years may require two distinct and different approaches, one physical and the other psychological. Follow-up health status, number of supporters and social activities, and self-rated active ageing

  11. Prediction information - GRIPDB | LSDB Archive [Life Science Database Archive metadata

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available switchLanguage; BLAST Search Image Search Home About Archive Update History Data List Contact us GRI...a.nbdc01665-004 Description of data contents Predicted GPCR interaction regions Data file File name: gripdb_...predicted_info.zip File URL: ftp://ftp.biosciencedbc.jp/archive/gripdb/LATEST/gripdb_predicted_info.zip File... size: 219 KB Simple search URL http://togodb.biosciencedbc.jp/togodb/view/gripdb...entries Data item Description ID Prediction information ID GRIP ID GRIP ID related wigh the prediction Predi

  12. Ageing and life prediction of cast duplex stainless steel components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, H.M.

    1992-01-01

    Cast duplex stainless steels, used extensively in nuclear, chemical and petroleum industries because of higher strength, better weldability, higher resistance to stress corrosion cracking, and soundness of casting, are susceptible to thermal aging embrittlement during service at temperatures as low as ∼250 o C. Recent advances in understanding the aging mechanisms, kinetics, and mechanical properties are presented, with emphasis on application of the material in safety-significant components in a nuclear reactor. Aging embrittlement is primarily due to spinodal decomposition of ferrite involving segregation of Fe, Cr, and Ni, and precipitation of M 23 C 6 on ferrite-austenite boundaries or in ferrite. Aging kinetics are strongly influenced by synergistic effects of other metallurgical reactions that occur in parallel with the spinodal decomposition, i.e. clustering of Ni, Mo, and Si and G-phase precipitation in ferrite. A number of methods are outlined for estimating end-of-life aging, depending on several factors such as degree of permissible conservatism, availability of component archive material, and methods of estimating and verifying the activation energy of aging. (Author)

  13. Parameter definition using vibration prediction software leads to significant drilling performance improvements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amorim, Dalmo; Hanley, Chris Hanley; Fonseca, Isaac; Santos, Juliana [National Oilwell Varco, Houston TX (United States); Leite, Daltro J.; Borella, Augusto; Gozzi, Danilo [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2012-07-01

    The understanding and mitigation of downhole vibration has been a heavily researched subject in the oil industry as it results in more expensive drilling operations, as vibrations significantly diminish the amount of effective drilling energy available to the bit and generate forces that can push the bit or the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA) off its concentric axis of rotation, producing high magnitude impacts with the borehole wall. In order to drill ahead, a sufficient amount of energy must be supplied by the rig to overcome the resistance of the drilling system, including the reactive torque of the system, drag forces, fluid pressure losses and energy dissipated by downhole vibrations, then providing the bit with the energy required to fail the rock. If the drill string enters resonant modes of vibration, not only does it decreases the amount of available energy to drill, but increases the potential for catastrophic downhole equipment and drilling bit failures. In this sense, the mitigation of downhole vibrations will result in faster, smoother, and cheaper drilling operations. A software tool using Finite Element Analysis (FEA) has been developed to provide better understanding of downhole vibration phenomena in drilling environments. The software tool calculates the response of the drilling system at various input conditions, based on the design of the wellbore along with the geometry of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA) and the drill string. It identifies where undesired levels of resonant vibration will be driven by certain combinations of specific drilling parameters, and also which combinations of drilling parameters will result in lower levels of vibration, so the least shocks, the highest penetration rate and the lowest cost per foot can be achieved. With the growing performance of personal computers, complex software systems modeling the drilling vibrations using FEA has been accessible to a wider audience of field users, further complimenting with real time

  14. Exploring the significance of human mobility patterns in social link prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alharbi, Basma Mohammed; Zhang, Xiangliang

    2014-01-01

    Link prediction is a fundamental task in social networks. Recently, emphasis has been placed on forecasting new social ties using user mobility patterns, e.g., investigating physical and semantic co-locations for new proximity measure. This paper

  15. The Prediction of Fatigue Life Based on Four Point Bending Test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pramesti, F.P.; Molenaar, A.A.A.; Van de Ven, M.F.C.

    2013-01-01

    To be able to devise optimum strategies for maintenance and rehabilitation, it is essential to formulate an accurate prediction of pavement life and its maintenance needs. One of the pavement life prediction methods is based on the pavement's capability to sustain fatigue. If it were possible to

  16. Selective neurocognitive deficits and poor life functioning are associated with significant depressive symptoms in alcoholism-HIV infection comorbidity

    OpenAIRE

    Sassoon, Stephanie A.; Rosenbloom, Margaret J.; Fama, Rosemary; Sullivan, Edith V.; Pfefferbaum, Adolf

    2012-01-01

    Alcoholism, HIV, and depressive symptoms frequently co-occur and are associated with impairment in cognition and life function. We administered the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II), measures of life function, and neurocognitive tests to 67 alcoholics, 56 HIV+ patients, 63 HIV+ alcoholics, and 64 controls to examine whether current depressive symptom level (significant, BDI-II ≥ 14 vs. minimal, BDI-II < 14) was associated with poorer cognitive or psychosocial function in alcoholism-HIV co...

  17. The Health Significance of Positive Emotions in Adulthood and Later Life

    OpenAIRE

    Ong, Anthony D.; Mroczek, Daniel K.; Riffin, Catherine

    2011-01-01

    A growing body of literature supports a link between positive emotions and health in older adults. In this article, we review evidence of the effects of positive emotions on downstream biological processes and meaningful clinical endpoints, such as adult morbidity and mortality. We then present relevant predictions from lifespan theories that suggest changes in cognition and motivation may play an important role in explaining how positive emotions are well maintained in old age, despite perva...

  18. Fatigue life prediction for a cold worked T316 stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manjoine, M.J.

    1983-01-01

    Permanent damage curves of initiation-life and propagation-life which predict the fatigue life of specimens of a cold-worked type 316 stainless steel under complex strain-range histories were generated by a limited test program. Analysis of the test data showed that fatigue damage is not linear throughout life and that propagation life is longer than initiation-life at high strain ranges but is shorter at low strain ranges. If permanent damage has been initiated by prior history and/or fabrication, propagation to a given life can occur at a lower strain range than that estimated from the fatigue curves for constant CSR. (author) [pt

  19. Comparisons of prediction models of quality of life after laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a longitudinal prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Yi Shi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Few studies of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC outcome have used longitudinal data for more than two years. Moreover, no studies have considered group differences in factors other than outcome such as age and nonsurgical treatment. Additionally, almost all published articles agree that the essential issue of the internal validity (reproducibility of the artificial neural network (ANN, support vector machine (SVM, Gaussian process regression (GPR and multiple linear regression (MLR models has not been adequately addressed. This study proposed to validate the use of these models for predicting quality of life (QOL after LC and to compare the predictive capability of ANNs with that of SVM, GPR and MLR. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 400 LC patients completed the SF-36 and the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index at baseline and at 2 years postoperatively. The criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the system models were mean square error (MSE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and to rank the variables in order of importance. Compared to SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model generally had smaller MSE and MAPE values in the training data set and test data set. Most ANN models had MAPE values ranging from 4.20% to 8.60%, and most had high prediction accuracy. The global sensitivity analysis also showed that preoperative functional status was the best parameter for predicting QOL after LC. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Compared with SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model in this study was more accurate in predicting patient-reported QOL and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.

  20. Health-related quality of life of patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Which factors are of significance?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linde, L.; Sørensen, J.; Ostergaard, M.

    2008-01-01

    Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory disease causing joint pain, loss of function and decreased health-related quality of life (HRQoL). HRQoL in RA patients is associated with several risk factors; in this paper the evidence relating to the most important risk factors is reviewed....... Modern medical therapy has improved HRQoL in RA patients, while demographic factors (female sex and older age), low socioeconomic status (in terms of education and position in the work force) and the presence of comorbid conditions appear to be associated with poorer HRQoL Udgivelsesdato: 2008/3/3...

  1. Flexural fatigue life prediction of closed hat-section using materially nonlinear axial fatigue characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzaq, Zia

    1989-01-01

    Straight or curved hat-section members are often used as structural stiffeners in aircraft. For instance, they are employed as stiffeners for the dorsal skin as well as in the aerial refueling adjacent area structure in F-106 aircraft. The flanges of the hat-section are connected to the aircraft skin. Thus, the portion of the skin closing the hat-section interacts with the section itself when resisting the stresses due to service loads. The flexural fatigue life of such a closed section is estimated using materially nonlinear axial fatigue characteristics. It should be recognized that when a structural shape is subjected to bending, the fatigue life at the neutral axis is infinity since the normal stresses are zero at that location. Conversely, the fatigue life at the extreme fibers where the normal bending stresses are maximum can be expected to be finite. Thus, different fatigue life estimates can be visualized at various distances from the neural axis. The problem becomes compounded further when significant portions away from the neutral axis are stressed into plastic range. A theoretical analysis of the closed hat-section subjected to flexural cyclic loading is first conducted. The axial fatigue characteristics together with the related axial fatigue life formula and its inverted form given by Manson and Muralidharan are adopted for an aluminum alloy used in aircraft construction. A closed-form expression for predicting the flexural fatigue life is then derived for the closed hat-section including materially nonlinear action. A computer program is written to conduct a study of the variables such as the thicknesses of the hat-section and the skin, and the type of alloy used. The study has provided a fundamental understanding of the flexural fatigue life characteristics of a practical structural component used in aircraft when materially nonlinear action is present.

  2. Predicting the life-time benefit of school-based smoking prevention programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Aveyard, Paul; Barton, Pelham; Meads, Catherine A

    2010-06-01

    School-based smoking prevention programmes may delay the age of smoking initiation, but do not appear to achieve lasting reductions in smoking prevalence beyond school-leaving age. We explored whether delaying the age at which someone initiates smoking may have life-time benefits by increasing the likelihood of quitting in later life. Data from the General Household Survey of Great Britain were used in a logistic regression model to examine the association between age at which someone initiates regular smoking and the probability that the person will quit smoking later in life. The effect of confounding variables (sex, ethnicity, socio-economic class, education and geographical location) was taken into account. The predicted relationship was used in a cohort model to estimate the life-time reduction in smoking prevalence and all-cause mortality of a school-based smoking prevention programme. Age of regular smoking initiation was associated strongly with the probability of quitting later in life (coefficient -0.103, P < 0.001). The strength of the association was slightly reduced but still significant when confounding variables were included (coefficient -0.075, P < 0.001). An intervention that delays smoking initiation without decreasing smoking prevalence at age 18 may reduce adult smoking prevalence by 0.13-0.32% (depending on age) and all-cause mortality by 0.09% over the life-time of the sample. School-based smoking prevention programmes have potential for a beneficial effect over the life-time of the participants even if they have no apparent effect at school-leaving age.

  3. Fatigue, fracture, and life prediction criteria for composite materials in magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, F.M.G.

    1990-06-01

    An explosively-bonded copper/Inconel 718/copper laminate conductor was proposed to withstand the severe face compression stresses in the central core of the Alcator C-MOD tokamak toroidal field (TF) magnet. Due to the severe duty of the TF magnet, it is critical that an accurate estimate of useful life be determined. As part of the effort to formulate an appropriate life prediction, fatigue crack growth experiments were performed on the laminate as well as its components. Metallographic evaluation of the laminate interface revealed many shear bands in the Inconel 718. Shear bands and shear band cracks were produced in the Inconel 718 as a result of the explosion bonding process. These shear bands were shown to have a detrimental effect on the crack growth behavior of the laminate, by significantly reducing the load carrying capability of the reinforcement layer and providing for easy crack propagation paths. Fatigue crack growth rate was found not only to be dependent on temperature but also on orientation. Fatigue cracks grew faster in directions which contained shear bands in the plane of the propagating crack. Fractography showed crack advancement by fatigue cracking in the Inconel 718 and ductile tearing of the copper at the interface. However, further away from the interfaces, the copper exhibited fatigue striations indicating that cracks were now propagating by fatigue. Laminate life prediction results showed a strong dependence on shear band orientation, and exhibited little variation between room temperature and 77 degree K. Predicted life of this laminate was lower when the crack propagation was along a shear band than when crack propagation was across the shear bands. Shear bands appear to have a dominating effect on crack growth behavior

  4. The accuracy of dysphoric and nondepressed groups' predictions of life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapçi, E G; Cramer, D

    1998-11-01

    The phenomenon of depressive realism was examined in relation to the future prediction of positive and negative life events. A group of dysphoric (n = 20) and nondepressed (n = 38) British undergraduates participated in a prospective study lasting 3 months. Partly consistent with the depressive realism hypotheses, dysphoric participants were more realistic concerning the negative life events they would experience, but they were less realistic concerning the negative life events they would not experience. Although no difference was found for predicting the occurrence of positive life events, dysphoric participants were found to be more realistic concerning positive life events that they would not experience.

  5. Combining modularity, conservation, and interactions of proteins significantly increases precision and coverage of protein function prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sers Christine T

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While the number of newly sequenced genomes and genes is constantly increasing, elucidation of their function still is a laborious and time-consuming task. This has led to the development of a wide range of methods for predicting protein functions in silico. We report on a new method that predicts function based on a combination of information about protein interactions, orthology, and the conservation of protein networks in different species. Results We show that aggregation of these independent sources of evidence leads to a drastic increase in number and quality of predictions when compared to baselines and other methods reported in the literature. For instance, our method generates more than 12,000 novel protein functions for human with an estimated precision of ~76%, among which are 7,500 new functional annotations for 1,973 human proteins that previously had zero or only one function annotated. We also verified our predictions on a set of genes that play an important role in colorectal cancer (MLH1, PMS2, EPHB4 and could confirm more than 73% of them based on evidence in the literature. Conclusions The combination of different methods into a single, comprehensive prediction method infers thousands of protein functions for every species included in the analysis at varying, yet always high levels of precision and very good coverage.

  6. Life Prediction for FRP composites with Data Fusion & Machine Learning

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — High-fidelity, probabilistic predictions of damage evolution in fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) composite structures could accelerate development and certification of...

  7. Major life events: their personal meaning, resolution, and mental health significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, John R; Turner, R Jay

    2008-06-01

    Researchers have employed varying strategies in an effort to better understand variation in responses to stress. This article argues that crisis theory makes a useful contribution to these efforts, particularly when studying variable response to major life events that are of high threat potential. Regression analyses of depressive symptomatology, mastery, and self-esteem in a community sample of adults (n = 1,542) provide preliminary support for the central tenets of crisis theory that specify the conditions under which experienced events are minimally and maximally hazardous. The results also offer mixed support for the proposition that successfully resolved crises can even yield emotional and coping benefits. Longitudinal models and further development of survey-based measures for distinguishing the occurrence of a crisis and assessing the adequacy of its resolution are needed to more thoroughly test crisis theory.

  8. Significance of Building Maintenance Management on Life-Span of Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Azree Othuman Mydin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The attentions and skills of maintenance are required for the construction of buildings in this twenty-first century. Because much architectural education is still focused on the one-of-a-kind assignment, encouraging the notion of personal fulfillment through leaving a mark for off-springs and obtaining a design award by means of concept drawings. Due to the reason that many building designers (architects, engineers, technicians are not encompassed in the subsequent maintenance of the building, they just regard it as other specialists’ responsibilities. In all likelihood, the building user-to-be has no formal role: the building contractors just fulfill their accountabilities to complete the building in compliance with the contract documents, not to care occupier’s needs and wants. This paper will focus on the important of building maintenance management on the life-span of buildings.

  9. A Probabilistic Approach to Predict Thermal Fatigue Life for Ball Grid Array Solder Joints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Helin; Wang, Kuisheng

    2011-11-01

    Numerous studies of the reliability of solder joints have been performed. Most life prediction models are limited to a deterministic approach. However, manufacturing induces uncertainty in the geometry parameters of solder joints, and the environmental temperature varies widely due to end-user diversity, creating uncertainties in the reliability of solder joints. In this study, a methodology for accounting for variation in the lifetime prediction for lead-free solder joints of ball grid array packages (PBGA) is demonstrated. The key aspects of the solder joint parameters and the cyclic temperature range related to reliability are involved. Probabilistic solutions of the inelastic strain range and thermal fatigue life based on the Engelmaier model are developed to determine the probability of solder joint failure. The results indicate that the standard deviation increases significantly when more random variations are involved. Using the probabilistic method, the influence of each variable on the thermal fatigue life is quantified. This information can be used to optimize product design and process validation acceptance criteria. The probabilistic approach creates the opportunity to identify the root causes of failed samples from product fatigue tests and field returns. The method can be applied to better understand how variation affects parameters of interest in an electronic package design with area array interconnections.

  10. Life prediction methods for the combined creep-fatigue endurance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wareing, J.; Lloyd, G.J.

    1980-09-01

    The basis and current status of development of the various approaches to the prediction of the combined creep-fatigue endurance are reviewed. It is concluded that an inadequate materials data base makes it difficult to draw sensible conclusions about the prediction capabilities of each of the available methods. Correlation with data for stainless steel 304 and 316 is presented. (U.K.)

  11. Genomic biomarkers of prenatal intrauterine inflammation in umbilical cord tissue predict later life neurological outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sloane K Tilley

    Full Text Available Preterm birth is a major risk factor for neurodevelopmental delays and disorders. This study aimed to identify genomic biomarkers of intrauterine inflammation in umbilical cord tissue in preterm neonates that predict cognitive impairment at 10 years of age.Genome-wide messenger RNA (mRNA levels from umbilical cord tissue were obtained from 43 neonates born before 28 weeks of gestation. Genes that were differentially expressed across four indicators of intrauterine inflammation were identified and their functions examined. Exact logistic regression was used to test whether expression levels in umbilical cord tissue predicted neurocognitive function at 10 years of age.Placental indicators of inflammation were associated with changes in the mRNA expression of 445 genes in umbilical cord tissue. Transcripts with decreased expression showed significant enrichment for biological signaling processes related to neuronal development and growth. The altered expression of six genes was found to predict neurocognitive impairment when children were 10 years old These genes include two that encode for proteins involved in neuronal development.Prenatal intrauterine inflammation is associated with altered gene expression in umbilical cord tissue. A set of six of the differentially expressed genes predict cognitive impairment later in life, suggesting that the fetal environment is associated with significant adverse effects on neurodevelopment that persist into later childhood.

  12. Significance of High Resolution GHRSST on prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Jangid, Buddhi Prakash

    2017-02-24

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assess the importance of very high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal rainfall prediction. Two different SST datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model analysis and merged satellite product from Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) are used as a lower boundary condition in the WRF model for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 2010. Before using NCEP SST and GHRSST for model simulation, an initial verification of NCEP SST and GHRSST are performed with buoy measurements. It is found that approximately 0.4 K root mean square difference (RMSD) in GHRSST and NCEP SST when compared with buoy observations available over the Indian Ocean during 01 May to 30 September 2010. Our analyses suggest that use of GHRSST as lower boundary conditions in the WRF model improve the low level temperature, moisture, wind speed and rainfall prediction over ISM region. Moreover, temporal evolution of surface parameters such as temperature, moisture and wind speed forecasts associated with monsoon is also improved with GHRSST forcing as a lower boundary condition. Interestingly, rainfall prediction is improved with the use of GHRSST over the Western Ghats, which mostly not simulated in the NCEP SST based experiment.

  13. Significant increase of Echinococcus multilocularis prevalencein foxes, but no increased predicted risk for humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maas, M.; Dam-Deisz, W.D.C.; Roon, van A.M.; Takumi, K.; Giessen, van der J.W.B.

    2014-01-01

    The emergence of the zoonotic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis, causative agent ofalveolar echinococcosis (AE), poses a public health risk. A previously designed risk mapmodel predicted a spread of E. multilocularis and increasing numbers of alveolar echinococ-cosis patients in the province of

  14. The significance of parenchymal changes of acute cellular rejection in predicting chronic liver graft rejection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gouw, ASH; van den Heuvel, MC; van den Berg, AP; Slooff, NJH; de Jong, KP; Poppema, S

    2002-01-01

    Background. Chronic rejection (CR) in liver allografts shows a rapid onset and progressive course, leading to graft failure within the first year after transplantation. Most cases are preceded by episodes of acute cellular rejection (AR), but histological features predictive for the transition

  15. Significance of High Resolution GHRSST on prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Jangid, Buddhi Prakash; Kumar, Prashant; Attada, Raju; Kumar, Raj

    2017-01-01

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assess the importance of very high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal rainfall prediction. Two different SST datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model analysis and merged satellite product from Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) are used as a lower boundary condition in the WRF model for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 2010. Before using NCEP SST and GHRSST for model simulation, an initial verification of NCEP SST and GHRSST are performed with buoy measurements. It is found that approximately 0.4 K root mean square difference (RMSD) in GHRSST and NCEP SST when compared with buoy observations available over the Indian Ocean during 01 May to 30 September 2010. Our analyses suggest that use of GHRSST as lower boundary conditions in the WRF model improve the low level temperature, moisture, wind speed and rainfall prediction over ISM region. Moreover, temporal evolution of surface parameters such as temperature, moisture and wind speed forecasts associated with monsoon is also improved with GHRSST forcing as a lower boundary condition. Interestingly, rainfall prediction is improved with the use of GHRSST over the Western Ghats, which mostly not simulated in the NCEP SST based experiment.

  16. Interaction between serotonin transporter gene variants and life events predicts response to antidepressants in the GENDEP project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keers, R.; Uher, R.; Huezo-Diaz, P.

    2011-01-01

    , and several polymorphisms in the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4) have been genotyped including the serotonin transporter-linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR). Stressful life events were shown to predict a significantly better response to escitalopram but had no effect on response to nortriptyline...

  17. Selective neurocognitive deficits and poor life functioning are associated with significant depressive symptoms in alcoholism-HIV infection comorbidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sassoon, Stephanie A; Rosenbloom, Margaret J; Fama, Rosemary; Sullivan, Edith V; Pfefferbaum, Adolf

    2012-09-30

    Alcoholism, HIV, and depressive symptoms frequently co-occur and are associated with impairment in cognition and life function. We administered the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II), measures of life function, and neurocognitive tests to 67 alcoholics, 56 HIV+ patients, 63 HIV+ alcoholics, and 64 controls to examine whether current depressive symptom level (significant, BDI-II>14 vs. minimal, BDI-IIalcoholism-HIV comorbidity. Participants with significant depressive symptoms demonstrated slower manual motor speed and poorer visuospatial memory than those with minimal depressive symptoms. HIV patients with depressive symptoms showed impaired manual motor speed. Alcoholics with depressive symptoms showed impaired visuospatial memory. HIV+ alcoholics with depressive symptoms reported the poorest quality of life; alcoholics with depressive symptoms, irrespective of HIV status, had poorest life functioning. Thus, significant depressive symptoms were associated with poorer selective cognitive and life functioning in alcoholism and in HIV infection, even though depressive symptoms had neither synergistic nor additive effects on cognition in alcoholism-HIV comorbidity. The results suggest the relevance of assessing and treating current depressive symptoms to reduce cognitive compromise and functional disability in HIV infection, alcoholism, and their comorbidity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. [Johann Sebastian Bach: life, oeuvre and his significance for the cardiology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trappe, H-J

    2014-12-01

    Johann Sebastian Bach was born on 1685 in Eisenach. By the time he turned 10, Bach found himself an orphan after the death of both of his parents. After working in Weimar, Arnstadt, Mühlhausen, and Köthen Bach signed a contract to become the new organist and teacher at St. Thomas Church Leipzig in 1723 and stayed there until his death. In 1749, Bach tried to fix his failing sight by having surgery the following year, but the operation ended up leaving him completely blind. Few months later, Bach suffered a stroke. He died in Leipzig on July 28, 1750. In recent years, there were some questions whether music of different styles can directly alter cardiovascular parameters, particularly by using Bach's music. In some studies it has been shown that cardiovascular parameters (blood pressure, heart rate) are influenced by music. Listening to classic music (Bach) leads to positive erffects, also music by Italian composters. In contrast, "modern" music, vocal music or songs had no positive effects on cardiovascular parameters. In addition, positive effects on cardiovascular parameters and behavioural patters have been shown in an animal study recently, by Bach's music. Recent studies showed clearly that music influences cardiovascular parameters. It is obvious that classical music (Bach) has benefitial effects, both in humans and in animals. Therefore, the music of the "Thomaskantor" will improve both, quality of life and cardiovascular health. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  19. Alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction predict motivation to change among mandated college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diulio, Andrea R; Cero, Ian; Witte, Tracy K; Correia, Christopher J

    2014-04-01

    The present study investigated the role specific types of alcohol-related problems and life satisfaction play in predicting motivation to change alcohol use. Participants were 548 college students mandated to complete a brief intervention following an alcohol-related policy violation. Using hierarchical multiple regression, we tested for the presence of interaction and quadratic effects on baseline data collected prior to the intervention. A significant interaction indicated that the relationship between a respondent's personal consequences and his/her motivation to change differs depending upon the level of concurrent social consequences. Additionally quadratic effects for abuse/dependence symptoms and life satisfaction were found. The quadratic probes suggest that abuse/dependence symptoms and poor life satisfaction are both positively associated with motivation to change for a majority of the sample; however, the nature of these relationships changes for participants with more extreme scores. Results support the utility of using a multidimensional measure of alcohol related problems and assessing non-linear relationships when assessing predictors of motivation to change. The results also suggest that the best strategies for increasing motivation may vary depending on the types of alcohol-related problems and level of life satisfaction the student is experiencing and highlight potential directions for future research. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Fatigue life prediction of autofrettage tubes using actual material behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jahed, Hamid; Farshi, Behrooz; Hosseini, Mohammad

    2006-01-01

    There is a profound Bauschinger effect in the behaviour of high-strength steels used in autofrettaged tubes. This has led to development of methods capable of considering experimentally obtained (actual) material behaviour in residual stress calculations. The extension of these methods to life calculations is presented here. To estimate the life of autofrettaged tubes with a longitudinal surface crack emanating from the bore more accurately, instead of using idealized models, the experimental loading-unloading stress-strain behaviour is employed. The resulting stresses are then used to calculate stress intensity factors by the weight function method as input to fatigue life determination. Fatigue lives obtained using the actual material behaviour are then compared with the results of frequently used ideal models including those considering Bauschinger effect factors and strain hardening in unloading. Using standard fatigue crack growth relationships, life of the vessel is then calculated based on recommended initial and final crack length. It is shown that the life gain due to autofrettage above 70% overstrain is considerable

  1. A method for uncertainty quantification in the life prediction of gas turbine components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lodeby, K.; Isaksson, O.; Jaervstraat, N. [Volvo Aero Corporation, Trolhaettan (Sweden)

    1998-12-31

    A failure in an aircraft jet engine can have severe consequences which cannot be accepted and high requirements are therefore raised on engine reliability. Consequently, assessment of the reliability of life predictions used in design and maintenance are important. To assess the validity of the predicted life a method to quantify the contribution to the total uncertainty in the life prediction from different uncertainty sources is developed. The method is a structured approach for uncertainty quantification that uses a generic description of the life prediction process. It is based on an approximate error propagation theory combined with a unified treatment of random and systematic errors. The result is an approximate statistical distribution for the predicted life. The method is applied on life predictions for three different jet engine components. The total uncertainty became of reasonable order of magnitude and a good qualitative picture of the distribution of the uncertainty contribution from the different sources was obtained. The relative importance of the uncertainty sources differs between the three components. It is also highly dependent on the methods and assumptions used in the life prediction. Advantages and disadvantages of this method is discussed. (orig.) 11 refs.

  2. We don't like (to) party : explaining the significance of Independents in Irish political life

    OpenAIRE

    Weeks, Liam

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to explain the significant presence of Independents (non-party representatives) in the Irish political system. This topic was chosen because parties have a monopoly on parliamentary representation in almost all liberal democracies. Ireland is an exception to this pattern, as independents have been elected to every session of parliament since the foundation of the modern Irish state. There have been very few academic analyses of Independents carried out in relation...

  3. Significance of satellite sign and spot sign in predicting hematoma expansion in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhiyuan; Zheng, Jun; Ali, Hasan; Guo, Rui; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Ma, Lu; Li, Hao; You, Chao

    2017-11-01

    Hematoma expansion is related to poor outcome in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Recently, a non-enhanced computed tomography (CT) based finding, termed the 'satellite sign', was reported to be a novel predictor for poor outcome in spontaneous ICH. However, it is still unclear whether the presence of the satellite sign is related to hematoma expansion. Initial computed tomography angiography (CTA) was conducted within 6h after ictus. Satellite sign on non-enhanced CT and spot sign on CTA were detected by two independent reviewers. The sensitivity and specificity of both satellite sign and spot sign were calculated. Receiver-operator analysis was conducted to evaluate their predictive accuracy for hematoma expansion. This study included 153 patients. Satellite sign was detected in 58 (37.91%) patients and spot sign was detected in 38 (24.84%) patients. Among 37 patients with hematoma expansion, 22 (59.46%) had satellite sign and 23 (62.16%) had spot sign. The sensitivity and specificity of satellite sign for prediction of hematoma expansion were 59.46% and 68.97%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of spot sign were 62.16% and 87.07%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of satellite sign was 0.642 and the AUC of spot sign was 0.746. (P=0.157) CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the satellite sign is an independent predictor for hematoma expansion in spontaneous ICH. Although spot sign has the higher predictive accuracy, satellite sign is still an acceptable predictor for hematoma expansion when CTA is unavailable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Personality predicts recurrence of late-life depression.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steunenberg, B.; Beekman, A.T.F.; Deeg, D.J.H.; Kerkhof, A.J.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To examine the association of personality with recurrence of depression in later life. Method: A subsample of 91 subjects from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA; baseline sample size n = 3107; aged ≥ 55 years) depressed at baseline, who had recovered in the course of three

  5. A study of fatigue life prediction for automotive spot weldment using local strain approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Song In; Yu, Hyo Sun; Na, Sung Hun; Na, Eui Gyun

    2000-01-01

    The fatigue crack initiation life is studied on automotive spot weldment made from cold rolled carbon steel(SPC) sheet by using DCPDM and local strain approach. It can be found that the fatigue crack initiation behavior in spot weldment can be definitely detected by DCPDM system. The local stresses and strains are estimated by elastic-plastic FEM analysis and the alternative approximate method based on Neuber's rule were applied to predict the fatigue life of spot weldment. A satisfactory correlation between the predicted life and experimental life can be found in spot weldment within a factor of 4

  6. Life prediction for white OLED based on LSM under lognormal distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianping; Liu, Fang; Liu, Yu; Wu, Helen; Zhu, Wenqing; Wu, Wenli; Wu, Liang

    2012-09-01

    In order to acquire the reliability information of White Organic Light Emitting Display (OLED), three groups of OLED constant stress accelerated life tests (CSALTs) were carried out to obtain failure data of samples. Lognormal distribution function was applied to describe OLED life distribution, and the accelerated life equation was determined by Least square method (LSM). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to verify whether the white OLED life meets lognormal distribution or not. Author-developed software was employed to predict the average life and the median life. The numerical results indicate that the white OLED life submits to lognormal distribution, and that the accelerated life equation meets inverse power law completely. The estimated life information of the white OLED provides manufacturers and customers with important guidelines.

  7. Significant social events and increasing use of life-sustaining treatment: trend analysis using extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yen-Yuan; Chen, Likwang; Huang, Tien-Shang; Ko, Wen-Je; Chu, Tzong-Shinn; Ni, Yen-Hsuan; Chang, Shan-Chwen

    2014-03-04

    Most studies have examined the outcomes of patients supported by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as a life-sustaining treatment. It is unclear whether significant social events are associated with the use of life-sustaining treatment. This study aimed to compare the trend of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use in Taiwan with that in the world, and to examine the influence of significant social events on the trend of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use in Taiwan. Taiwan's extracorporeal membrane oxygenation uses from 2000 to 2009 were collected from National Health Insurance Research Dataset. The number of the worldwide extracorporeal membrane oxygenation cases was mainly estimated using Extracorporeal Life Support Registry Report International Summary July 2012. The trend of Taiwan's crude annual incidence rate of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use was compared with that of the rest of the world. Each trend of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use was examined using joinpoint regression. The measurement was the crude annual incidence rate of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use. Each of the Taiwan's crude annual incidence rates was much higher than the worldwide one in the same year. Both the trends of Taiwan's and worldwide crude annual incidence rates have significantly increased since 2000. Joinpoint regression selected the model of the Taiwan's trend with one joinpoint in 2006 as the best-fitted model, implying that the significant social events in 2006 were significantly associated with the trend change of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use following 2006. In addition, significantly social events highlighted by the media are more likely to be associated with the increase of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use than being fully covered by National Health Insurance. Significant social events, such as a well-known person's successful extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use highlighted by the mass media, are associated with the use of

  8. Stressful Life Events Predict Eating Disorder Relapse Following Remission: Six-Year Prospective Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilo, Carlos M.; Pagano, Maria E.; Stout, Robert L.; Markowitz, John C.; Ansell, Emily B.; Pinto, Anthony; Zanarini, Mary C.; Yen, Shirley; Skodol, Andrew E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To examine prospectively the natural course of bulimia nervosa (BN) and eating disorder not-otherwise-specified (EDNOS) and test for the effects of stressful life events (SLE) on relapse after remission from these eating disorders. Method 117 female patients with BN (N = 35) or EDNOS (N = 82) were prospectively followed for 72 months using structured interviews performed at baseline, 6- and 12-months, and then yearly thereafter. ED were assessed with the structured clinical interview for DSM-IV, and monitored over time with the longitudinal interval follow-up evaluation. Personality disorders were assessed with the diagnostic interview for DSM-IV-personality-disorders, and monitored over time with the follow-along-version. The occurrence and specific timing of SLE were assessed with the life events assessment interview. Cox proportional-hazard-regression-analyses tested associations between time-varying levels of SLE and ED relapse, controlling for comorbid psychiatric disorders, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status. Results ED relapse probability was 43%; BN and EDNOS did not differ in time to relapse. Negative SLE significantly predicted ED relapse; elevated work and social stressors were significant predictors. Psychiatric comorbidity, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status were not significant predictors. Discussion Higher work and social stress represent significant warning signs for triggering relapse for women with remitted BN and EDNOS. PMID:21448971

  9. Use of data mining to predict significant factors and benefits of bilateral cochlear implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Miguel, Angel; Perez-Zaballos, Teresa; Perez, Daniel; Falconb, Juan Carlos; Ramosb, Angel

    2015-11-01

    Data mining (DM) is a technique used to discover pattern and knowledge from a big amount of data. It uses artificial intelligence, automatic learning, statistics, databases, etc. In this study, DM was successfully used as a predictive tool to assess disyllabic speech test performance in bilateral implanted patients with a success rate above 90%. 60 bilateral sequentially implanted adult patients were included in the study. The DM algorithms developed found correlations between unilateral medical records and Audiological test results and bilateral performance by establishing relevant variables based on two DM techniques: the classifier and the estimation. The nearest neighbor algorithm was implemented in the first case, and the linear regression in the second. The results showed that patients with unilateral disyllabic test results below 70% benefited the most from a bilateral implantation. Finally, it was observed that its benefits decrease as the inter-implant time increases.

  10. Self-Predictions and Depressive Realism in Future Life Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Todd J.; And Others

    Research has demonstrated that depressed people lack the optimistic bias evidenced by nondepressed persons and that the former may be more realistic in predicting the outcome of future events (depressive realism hypothesis). This study assesses the depressive realism hypothesis by comparing the accuracy of depressed and nondepressed people's…

  11. Predicting the evolution of social networks with life cycle events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sharmeen, F.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a model of social network evolution, to predict and simulate changes in social networks induced by lifecycle events. We argue that social networks change with lifecycle events, and we extend a model of friendship selection to incorporate these dynamics of personal social

  12. Predicting the Remaining Useful Life of Rolling Element Bearings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hooghoudt, Jan Otto; Jantunen, E; Yi, Yang

    2018-01-01

    Condition monitoring of rolling element bearings is of vital importance in order to keep the industrial wheels running. In wind industry this is especially important due to the challenges in practical maintenance. The paper presents an attempt to improve the capability of prediction of remaining...

  13. Fatigue life prediction of fiber reinforced concrete under flexural load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jun; Stang, Henrik; Li, Victor

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a semi-analytical method to predict fatigue behavior in flexure of fiber reinforced concrete (FRC) based on the equilibrium of force in the critical cracked section. The model relies on the cyclic bridging law, the so-called stress-crack width relationship under cyclic tensile...

  14. Fatigue life prediction of pedicle screw for spinal surgery

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Major, Štěpán; Kocour, Vladimír; Cyrus, P.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 35 (2016), s. 379-388 ISSN 1971-8993. [European Conference on Fracture. ECF21. Catania, 20.06.2015-20.06.2015] Institutional support: RVO:68378297 Keywords : pedicle-screw * titan alloy * fatigue life * finite element analysis Subject RIV: JK - Corrosion ; Surface Treatment of Materials http://www.fracturae.com/index.php/fis/article/view/IGF-ESIS.35.43

  15. Stress analysis and life prediction of gas turbine blade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiung, H. C.; Dunn, A. J.; Woodling, D. R.; Loh, D. L.

    1988-01-01

    A stress analysis procedure is presented for a redesign of the Space Shuttle Main Engine high pressure fuel turbopump turbine blades. The analysis consists of the one-dimensional scoping analysis to support the design layout and the follow-on three-dimensional finite element analysis to confirm the blade design at operating loading conditions. Blade life is evaluated based on high-cycle fatigue and low-cycle fatigue.

  16. Significance of collateral vessels on the prediction of superior vena cava syndrome on CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyun Sook; Kim, Hyung Jin; Lee, Hyeng Gon; Ahn, In Oak; Chung, Sung Hoon

    1993-01-01

    Although visible collateral vessels on computed tomography (CT) has been considered as an important finding in superior vena cava (SVC) syndrome, there is no systematical analysis concerning correlation between the CT evidence of collateral vessels and clinical evidence of SVC syndrome. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how accurately we predict the clinical presence of SVC syndrome by the collateral vessels in patients with apparent SVC obstruction in CT. Forty seven patients having a CT evidence of obstruction or compression of SVC and/or its major tributaries were included in this study. Lung cancer was the most common underlying disease (n=40). The enhanced CT scans were obtained through either arm vein using a combined bolus and drip-infusion technique. Analyzing the CT scans, we particularly paid attention to the site and pattern of venous compromise, presence of collateral vessels, and if present, their location, without knowing whether symptoms and sign were present or nor, and then compared them with clinical data by a thorough review of charts, To verify the frequency of visible collateral vessels in normal subjects, we also evaluated the CT scans of 50 patients without mediastinal disease and clinical SVC syndrome as a control group. On CT, collateral vessels were found in 24 patients, among whom three patient had a single collateral and 21 patients had two or more collateral channels. There were two false positive cases, in which clinically overt SVC syndrome appeared 10 days and three months after CT examination respectively, and one false negative case. The presence of collateral vessels on CT, respectively, and one false negative case. The presence of collateral vessels on CT, regardless of the number and location of collateral vessels and pattern of venous obstruction, was a good clue for predicting the presence of clinical SVC syndrome with the sensitivity and the specificity of 95.7% and 91.7%, respectively. In control group, collateral

  17. Characterizing Cracking and Permanent Deformation; An Attempt for Predicting the End of the Structural Pavement Life

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pramesti, F.P.; Molenaar, A.A.A.; van de Ven, M.F.C.

    2017-01-01

    Durable, therefore sustainable, road needs to attain specific characteristics, among others, resistance to permanent deformation and cracking. Determining the development of both characteristics are important to be able to predict pavement life and performance. In this research, permanent

  18. Study on effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of thin film structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Myung Soo [Ahtti Co., Seongnam (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jun Hyu [Tongmyong University, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung Yup [Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-15

    This paper describes the effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of structure made with thin film. It is well known that the mean stress influences fatigue life prediction of mechanical structure. We investigated a reasonable method for considering mean stress when fatigue strength assessment of micro structure of thin film should be performed. Fatigue tests of smooth specimen of beryllium-copper (BeCu) thin film were performed in ambient air at R = 0.1 with 5 Hz. A micro probe was designed and made with BeCu thin film by the precision press process. Fatigue tests of micro structure were performed with 5 Hz frequency, in ambient air to verify the fatigue life predicted by computer simulation through FE analysis. The fatigue life predicted by the Sa -N curve modified by Goodman method with principal stress through FE analysis shows a more reasonable result than other methods.

  19. Extreme Environment Damage Index and Accumulation Model for CMC Laminate Fatigue Life Prediction, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Materials Research & Design (MR&D) is proposing in the SBIR Phase II an effort to develop a tool for predicting the fatigue life of C/SiC composite...

  20. Study on effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of thin film structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Myung Soo; Park, Jun Hyu; Kim, Jung Yup

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the effect of mean stress on fatigue life prediction of structure made with thin film. It is well known that the mean stress influences fatigue life prediction of mechanical structure. We investigated a reasonable method for considering mean stress when fatigue strength assessment of micro structure of thin film should be performed. Fatigue tests of smooth specimen of beryllium-copper (BeCu) thin film were performed in ambient air at R = 0.1 with 5 Hz. A micro probe was designed and made with BeCu thin film by the precision press process. Fatigue tests of micro structure were performed with 5 Hz frequency, in ambient air to verify the fatigue life predicted by computer simulation through FE analysis. The fatigue life predicted by the Sa -N curve modified by Goodman method with principal stress through FE analysis shows a more reasonable result than other methods

  1. A proposal of parameter to predict biaxial fatigue life for CF8M cast stainless steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Joong Cheul; Kwon, Jae Do

    2005-01-01

    Biaxial low cycle fatigue test was carried out to predict fatigue life under combined axial-torsional loading condition which is that of in-phase and out-of-phase for CF8M cast stainless steels. Fatemi Socie(FS) parameter which is based on critical plane approach is not only one of methods but also the best method that can predict fatigue life under biaxial loading condition. But the result showed that, biaxial fatigue life prediction by using FS parameter with several different parameters for the CF8M cast stainless steels is not conservative but best results. So in this present research, we proposed new fatigue life prediction parameter considering effective shear stress instead of FS parameter which considers the maximum normal stress acting on maximum shear strain and its effectiveness was verified

  2. A review on fatigue life prediction methods for anti-vibration rubber materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoli WANG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Anti-vibration rubber, because of its superior elasticity, plasticity, waterproof and trapping characteristics, is widely used in the automotive industry, national defense, construction and other fields. The theory and technology of predicting fatigue life is of great significance to improve the durability design and manufacturing of anti-vibration rubber products. According to the characteristics of the anti-vibration rubber products in service, the technical difficulties for analyzing fatigue properties of anti-vibration rubber materials are pointed out. The research progress of the fatigue properties of rubber materials is reviewed from three angles including methods of fatigue crack initiation, fatigue crack propagation and fatigue damage accumulation. It is put forward that some nonlinear characteristics of rubber under fatigue loading, including the Mullins effect, permanent deformation and cyclic stress softening, should be considered in the further study of rubber materials. Meanwhile, it is indicated that the fatigue damage accumulation method based on continuum damage mechanics might be more appropriate to solve fatigue damage and life prediction problems for complex rubber materials and structures under fatigue loading.

  3. General life satisfaction predicts dementia in community living older adults: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitsch, Lorraine; Tyas, Suzanne L; Menec, Verena H; St John, Philip D

    2016-07-01

    Low life satisfaction predicts adverse outcomes, and may predict dementia. The objectives were: (1) to determine if life satisfaction predicts dementia over a five year period in those with normal cognition at baseline; and (2) to determine if different aspects of life satisfaction differentially predict dementia. Secondary analysis of an existing population-based cohort study with initial assessment in 1991 and follow-up five years later. Initially, 1,751 adults age 65+ living in the community were sampled from a representative sampling frame. Of these, 1,024 were alive and had complete data at time 2, of whom 96 were diagnosed with dementia. Life satisfaction was measured using the Terrible-Delightful scale, which measures overall life satisfaction on a 7-point scale, as well as various aspects of life satisfaction (e.g. friendships, finances, etc.) Dementia was diagnosed by clinical examination using DSM-IIIR criteria. Logistic regression models were constructed for the outcome of dementia at time 2, and adjusted for age, gender, education, and comorbidities. Overall life satisfaction predicted dementia five years later, at time 2. The unadjusted Odds Ratio (OR; 95% confidence interval) for dementia at time 2 was 0.72 (0.55, 0.95) per point. The adjusted OR for dementia was 0.70 (0.51, 0.96). No individual item on the life satisfaction scale predicted dementia. However, the competing risk of mortality was very high for some items. A global single-item measure of life satisfaction predicts dementia over a five year period in older adults without cognitive impairment.

  4. Durability and life prediction modeling in polyimide composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binienda, Wieslaw K.

    1995-01-01

    Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.

  5. Risk-informed prediction of feeder end of life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jyrkama, M.; Pandey, M.

    2011-01-01

    The operating life of feeder piping is negatively impacted by flow accelerated corrosion (FAC). In this study, an assessment of a large set of inspection data reveals that FAC in feeders is a relatively stationary process, with variability only at the local scale. Given the added uncertainty from inspection coverage, a new method for estimating the thinning rate and feeder EOL is developed using a probabilistic approach. The results of the study illustrate the benefits of the methodology in supporting risk-informed decision making at the station by quantifying the present and incremental risk in the feeder system over time. (author)

  6. Risk-informed prediction of feeder end of life

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jyrkama, M.; Pandey, M. [Univ. of Waterloo, Ontario (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    The operating life of feeder piping is negatively impacted by flow accelerated corrosion (FAC). In this study, an assessment of a large set of inspection data reveals that FAC in feeders is a relatively stationary process, with variability only at the local scale. Given the added uncertainty from inspection coverage, a new method for estimating the thinning rate and feeder EOL is developed using a probabilistic approach. The results of the study illustrate the benefits of the methodology in supporting risk-informed decision making at the station by quantifying the present and incremental risk in the feeder system over time. (author)

  7. Fatigue Life Prediction of Package of Suspension Automotive Under Random Vibration Based on Road Roughness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazem Reza Kashyzadeh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of a suitable suspension system for passenger comfort and vehicle steering is an obvious order and direct impact on the safety of passengers must be considered, to do so different kinds of tests must be exerted, one of these is fatigue testing which is one of the most significant ones. Another issue is the high cost in practical ways, and to cope with this issue various ways must be assessed and analyzed, one of the best and the most efficient ways is modelling and testing in virtual software environments. In the present paper, predict fatigue life of suspension component and package of automotive suspension are the main purposes. First, using MATLAB software, road roughness according to the intercity roads for constant vehicle velocity (100 Km/h has been studied. After that frequency response of components has been analysed, its critical points determined to calculate the fatigue life of the part, and the amount of critical stress obtained based on Von Misses, Tresca and Max Principle criterion for a quarter car model (passive suspension System in 206 Peugeot. Fatigue life of the vehicle components are calculated in terms of kilo-Meters in specialized fatigue software such as 116944, 92638.9, 46388.9 and 191388.9 Km respectively wheel hub, pitman arm, suspension arm and package of suspension. Finally, to prove the given results of the finite element method compared with reported results by other researchers and the results match very well with those.

  8. In your eyes: does theory of mind predict impaired life functioning in bipolar disorder?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Amanda L; Phillips, Mary; Gruber, June

    2013-12-01

    Deficits in emotion perception and social functioning are strongly implicated in bipolar disorder (BD). Examining theory of mind (ToM) may provide one potential mechanism to explain observed socio-emotional impairments in this disorder. The present study prospectively investigated the relationship between theory of mind performance and life functioning in individuals diagnosed with BD compared to unipolar depression and healthy control groups. Theory of mind (ToM) performance was examined in 26 individuals with remitted bipolar I disorder (BD), 29 individuals with remitted unipolar depression (UD), and 28 healthy controls (CTL) using a well-validated advanced theory of mind task. Accuracy and response latency scores were calculated from the task. Life functioning was measured during a 12 month follow-up session. No group differences for ToM accuracy emerged. However, the BD group exhibited significantly shorter response times than the UD and CTL groups. Importantly, quicker response times in the BD group predicted greater life functioning impairment at a 12-month follow-up, even after controlling for baseline symptoms. The stimuli were static representations of emotional states and do not allow for evaluating the appropriateness of context during emotional communication; due to sample size, neither specific comorbidities nor medication effects were analyzed for the BD and UD groups; preliminary status of theory of mind as a construct. Results suggest that quickened socio-emotional decision making may represent a risk factor for future functional impairment in BD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Stressful life events predict delayed functional recovery following treatment for mania in bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan-Meier, Leslie; Eberhart, Nicole K; Hammen, Constance L; Gitlin, Michael; Sokolski, Kenneth; Altshuler, Lori

    2011-04-30

    Identifying predictors of functional recovery in bipolar disorder is critical to treatment efforts to help patients re-establish premorbid levels of role adjustment following an acute manic episode. The current study examined the role of stressful life events as potential obstacles to recovery of functioning in various roles. 65 patients with bipolar I disorder participated in a longitudinal study of functional recovery following clinical recovery from a manic episode. Stressful life events were assessed as predictors of concurrent vs. delayed recovery of role functioning in 4 domains (friends, family, home duties, work/school). Despite clinical recovery, a subset of patients experienced delayed functional recovery in various role domains. Moreover, delayed functional recovery was significantly associated with presence of one or more stressors in the prior 3 months, even after controlling for mood symptoms. Presence of a stressor predicted longer time to functional recovery in life domains, up to 112 days in work/school. Interventions that provide monitoring, support, and problem-solving may be needed to help prevent or mitigate the effects of stress on functional recovery. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Structural health monitoring for fatigue life prediction of orthotropic brdige decks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pijpers, R.J.M.; Pahlavan, P.L.; Paulissen, J.H.; Hakkesteegt, H.C.; Jansen, T.H.

    2013-01-01

    Infrastructure asset owners are more and more confronted with structures reaching the end of their structural life. Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems should provide up-to-date information about the actual condition, as well predict the structural life and required maintenance of the assets

  11. Academic Life Satisfaction Scale (ALSS) and Its Effectiveness in Predicting Academic Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.K. Sudheesh; P., Dileep

    2006-01-01

    This study is undertaken to examine the effectiveness of a newly constructed psychometric instrument to assess Academic Life Satisfaction along with the components of Emotional Intelligence. The Academic Life Satisfaction Scale is used to predict the scholastic achievement as an index of Academic success. The investigators found that Academic Life…

  12. Fatigue life prediction and strength degradation of wind turbine rotor blade composites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijssen, R.P.L.

    2006-01-01

    Wind turbine rotor blades are subjected to a large number of highly variable loads, but life predictions are typically based on constant amplitude fatigue behaviour. Therefore, it is important to determine how service life under variable amplitude fatigue can be estimated from constant amplitude

  13. Aluminum 7075-T6 fatigue data generation and probabilistic life prediction formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Kemna, John G.

    1998-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The life extension of aging fleet aircraft requires an assessment of the safe-life remaining after refurbishment. Risk can be estimated by conventional deterministic fatigue analysis coupled with a subjective factor of safety. Alternatively, risk can be quantitatively and objectively predicted by probabilistic analysis. In this investigation, a general probabilistic life formulation is specialized for constant amplitude, fully reverse...

  14. Meta-Analysis of Predictive Significance of the Black Hole Sign for Hematoma Expansion in Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jun; Yu, Zhiyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Hao; You, Chao; Ma, Lu

    2018-04-27

    Hematoma expansion is related to unfavorable prognosis in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). The black hole sign is a novel marker on non-contrast computed tomography for predicting hematoma expansion. However, its predictive values are different in previous studies. Thus, this meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the predictive significance of the black hole sign for hematoma expansion in ICH. A systematic literature search was performed. Original researches on the association between the black hole sign and hematoma expansion in ICH were included. Sensitivity and specificity were pooled to assess the predictive accuracy. Summary receiver operating characteristics curve (SROC) was developed. Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test was used to assess the publication bias. Five studies with a total of 1495 patients were included in this study. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the black hole sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 0.30 and 0.91, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.78 in SROC curve. There was no significant publication bias. This meta-analysis shows that the black hole sign is a helpful imaging marker for predicting hematoma expansion in ICH. Although the black hole sign has a relatively low sensitivity, its specificity is relatively high. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Testing and Life Prediction for Composite Rotor Hub Flexbeams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murri, Gretchen B.

    2004-01-01

    A summary of several studies of delamination in tapered composite laminates with internal ply-drops is presented. Initial studies used 2D FE models to calculate interlaminar stresses at the ply-ending locations in linear tapered laminates under tension loading. Strain energy release rates for delamination in these laminates indicated that delamination would likely start at the juncture of the tapered and thin regions and grow unstably in both directions. Tests of glass/epoxy and graphite/epoxy linear tapered laminates under axial tension delaminated as predicted. Nonlinear tapered specimens were cut from a full-size helicopter rotor hub and were tested under combined constant axial tension and cyclic transverse bending loading to simulate the loading experienced by a rotorhub flexbeam in flight. For all the tested specimens, delamination began at the tip of the outermost dropped ply group and grew first toward the tapered region. A 2D FE model was created that duplicated the test flexbeam layup, geometry, and loading. Surface strains calculated by the model agreed very closely with the measured surface strains in the specimens. The delamination patterns observed in the tests were simulated in the model by releasing pairs of MPCs along those interfaces. Strain energy release rates associated with the delamination growth were calculated for several configurations and using two different FE analysis codes. Calculations from the codes agreed very closely. The strain energy release rate results were used with material characterization data to predict fatigue delamination onset lives for nonlinear tapered flexbeams with two different ply-dropping schemes. The predicted curves agreed well with the test data for each case studied.

  16. Prediction of packaging seal life using thermoanalytical techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nigrey, P.J.

    1997-11-01

    In this study, Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) has been used to study silicone, Viton and Ethylene Propylene (EPDM) rubber. The studies have shown that TGA accurately predicts the relative order of thermo-oxidative stability of these three materials from the calculated activation energies. As expected, the greatest thermal stability was found in silicone rubber followed by Viton and EPDM rubber. The calculated lifetimes for these materials were in relatively close agreement with published values. The preliminary results also accurately reflect decreased thermal stability and lifetime for EPDM rubber exposed to radiation and chemicals. These results suggest TGA provides a rapid method to evaluate material stability

  17. A new model using routinely available clinical parameters to predict significant liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wai-Kay Seto

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We developed a predictive model for significant fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB based on routinely available clinical parameters. METHODS: 237 treatment-naïve CHB patients [58.4% hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg-positive] who had undergone liver biopsy were randomly divided into two cohorts: training group (n = 108 and validation group (n = 129. Liver histology was assessed for fibrosis. All common demographics, viral serology, viral load and liver biochemistry were analyzed. RESULTS: Based on 12 available clinical parameters (age, sex, HBeAg status, HBV DNA, platelet, albumin, bilirubin, ALT, AST, ALP, GGT and AFP, a model to predict significant liver fibrosis (Ishak fibrosis score ≥3 was derived using the five best parameters (age, ALP, AST, AFP and platelet. Using the formula log(index+1 = 0.025+0.0031(age+0.1483 log(ALP+0.004 log(AST+0.0908 log(AFP+1-0.028 log(platelet, the PAPAS (Platelet/Age/Phosphatase/AFP/AST index predicts significant fibrosis with an area under the receiving operating characteristics (AUROC curve of 0.776 [0.797 for patients with ALT <2×upper limit of normal (ULN] The negative predictive value to exclude significant fibrosis was 88.4%. This predictive power is superior to other non-invasive models using common parameters, including the AST/platelet/GGT/AFP (APGA index, AST/platelet ratio index (APRI, and the FIB-4 index (AUROC of 0.757, 0.708 and 0.723 respectively. Using the PAPAS index, 67.5% of liver biopsies for patients being considered for treatment with ALT <2×ULN could be avoided. CONCLUSION: The PAPAS index can predict and exclude significant fibrosis, and may reduce the need for liver biopsy in CHB patients.

  18. Prevalence, significance and predictive value of antiphospholipid antibodies in Crohn’s disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipeki, Nora; Davida, Laszlo; Palyu, Eszter; Altorjay, Istvan; Harsfalvi, Jolan; Antal Szalmas, Peter; Szabo, Zoltan; Veres, Gabor; Shums, Zakera; Norman, Gary L; Lakatos, Peter L; Papp, Maria

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To assess the prevalence and stability of different antiphospholipid antibodies (APLAs) and their association with disease phenotype and progression in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) patients. METHODS: About 458 consecutive patients [Crohn’s disease (CD): 271 and ulcerative colitis (UC): 187] were enrolled into a follow-up cohort study in a tertiary IBD referral center in Hungary. Detailed clinical phenotypes were determined at enrollment by reviewing the patients’ medical charts. Disease activity, medical treatment and data about evolvement of complications or surgical interventions were determined prospectively during the follow-up. Disease course (development f complicated disease phenotype and need for surgery), occurrence of thrombotic events, actual state of disease activity according to clinical, laboratory and endoscopic scores and accurate treatment regime were recorded during the follow-up, (median, 57.4 and 61.6 mo for CD and UC). Sera of IBD patients and 103 healthy controls (HC) were tested on individual anti-β2-Glycoprotein-I (anti-β2-GPI IgA/M/G), anti-cardiolipin (ACA IgA/M/G) and anti-phosphatidylserine/prothrombin (anti-PS/PT IgA/M/G) antibodies and also anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies (ASCA IgA/G) by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In a subgroup of CD (n = 198) and UC patients (n = 103), obtaining consecutive samples over various arbitrary time-points during the disease course, we evaluated the intraindividual stability of the APLA status. Additionally, we provide an overview of studies, performed so far, in which significance of APLAs in IBD were assessed. RESULTS: Patients with CD had significantly higher prevalence of both ACA (23.4%) and anti-PS/PT (20.4%) antibodies than UC (4.8%, P < 0.0001 and 10.2%, P = 0.004) and HC (2.9%, P < 0.0001 and 15.5%, P = NS). No difference was found for the prevalence of anti-β2-GPI between different groups (7.2%-9.7%). In CD, no association was found between APLA and ASCA

  19. A naive Bayes model for robust remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ng, Selina S.Y.; Xing, Yinjiao; Tsui, Kwok L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Robustness of RUL predictions for lithium-ion batteries is analyzed quantitatively. • RUL predictions of the same battery over cycle life are evaluated. • RUL predictions of batteries over different operating conditions are evaluated. • Naive Bayes (NB) is proposed for predictions under constant discharge environments. • Its robustness and accuracy are compared with that of support vector machine (SVM). - Abstract: Online state-of-health (SoH) estimation and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is a critical problem in battery health management. This paper studies the modeling of battery degradation under different usage conditions and ambient temperatures, which is seldom considered in the literature. Li-ion battery RUL prediction under constant operating conditions at different values of ambient temperature and discharge current are considered. A naive Bayes (NB) model is proposed for RUL prediction of batteries under different operating conditions. It is shown in this analysis that under constant discharge environments, the RUL of Li-ion batteries can be predicted with the NB method, irrespective of the exact values of the operating conditions. The case study shows that the NB generates stable and competitive prediction performance over that of the support vector machine (SVM). This also suggests that, while it is well known that the environmental conditions have big impact on the degradation trend, it is the changes in operating conditions of a Li-ion battery over cycle life that makes the Li-ion battery degradation and RUL prediction even more difficult

  20. Life prediction study of reactor pressure vessel as essential technical foundation for plant life extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, H.; Nakajima, N.; Kondo, T.

    1987-01-01

    The life of a LWR plant is determined essentially by the limit of reliable performance of the components which are difficult to replace without high economic and/or safety risks. Typical of such a component is the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). The engineering life of a RPV of a given quality of steel is considered to be a complex function of factors such as the resistance to fracture, which has deteriorated due to neutron irradiation and thermal aging, and generation of surface flaws by environmental effects such as corrosion and their growth under operational load that varies during steady state operation and transients. In an attempt to evaluate the engineering life of a RPV of a LWR, a preliminary survey was made by applying a set of knowledge accumulated primarily in the field of subcritical crack growth behavior of RPV steels in reactor water environments. The major conclusions drawn are: (1) the life of a RPV is dependent on the quality of steel used, particularly with respect to any minor impurities it contains. (2) The issue of plant life extension in RPV aspect is found to be optimistic for cases where the steels used satisfy a reasonable level of quality control. (3) The importance of providing sound scientific foundation is stressed for the implementation of a practicable life extension scheme: this can be established through intensified studies of flaw growth and fracture behaviours in well defined testings under reasonably simulated service conditions

  1. REMAINING LIFE TIME PREDICTION OF BEARINGS USING K-STAR ALGORITHM – A STATISTICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. SATISHKUMAR

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of bearings is significant in reducing the down time of all rotating machineries. The increasing trend of bearing failures in recent times has triggered the need and importance of deployment of condition monitoring. There are multiple factors associated to a bearing failure while it is in operation. Hence, a predictive strategy is required to evaluate the current state of the bearings in operation. In past, predictive models with regression techniques were widely used for bearing lifetime estimations. The Objective of this paper is to estimate the remaining useful life of bearings through a machine learning approach. The ultimate objective of this study is to strengthen the predictive maintenance. The present study was done using classification approach following the concepts of machine learning and a predictive model was built to calculate the residual lifetime of bearings in operation. Vibration signals were acquired on a continuous basis from an experiment wherein the bearings are made to run till it fails naturally. It should be noted that the experiment was carried out with new bearings at pre-defined load and speed conditions until the bearing fails on its own. In the present work, statistical features were deployed and feature selection process was carried out using J48 decision tree and selected features were used to develop the prognostic model. The K-Star classification algorithm, a supervised machine learning technique is made use of in building a predictive model to estimate the lifetime of bearings. The performance of classifier was cross validated with distinct data. The result shows that the K-Star classification model gives 98.56% classification accuracy with selected features.

  2. Prospective evaluation of biomarkers for prediction of quality of life in community-acquired pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickler, Manuela; Schaffner, Daniela; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Ottiger, Manuel; Thomann, Robert; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

    2016-11-01

    Most clinical research investigated prognostic biomarkers for their ability to predict cardiovascular events or mortality. It is unknown whether biomarkers allow prediction of quality of life (QoL) after survival of the acute event. Herein, we investigated the prognostic potential of well-established inflammatory/cardiovascular blood biomarkers including white blood cells (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), pro-adrenomedullin (proADM) and pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (proANP) in regard to a decline in QoL in a well-defined cohort of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Within this secondary analysis including 753 patients with a final inpatient diagnosis of CAP from a multicenter trial, we investigated associations between admission biomarker levels and decline in QoL assessed by the EQ-5D health questionnaire from admission to day 30 and after 6 years. Admission proADM and proANP levels significantly predicted decline of the weighted EQ-5D index after 30 days (n=753) with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of 2.0 ([95% CI 1.1-3.8]; p=0.027) and 3.7 ([95% CI 2.2-6.0]; pscale (VAS). Initial WBC, PCT and CRP values did not well predict QoL at any time point. ProADM and proANP accurately predict short- and long-term decline in QoL across most dimensions in CAP patients. It will be interesting to reveal underlying physiopathology in future studies.

  3. Accurate prediction of the functional significance of single nucleotide polymorphisms and mutations in the ABCA1 gene.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liam R Brunham

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The human genome contains an estimated 100,000 to 300,000 DNA variants that alter an amino acid in an encoded protein. However, our ability to predict which of these variants are functionally significant is limited. We used a bioinformatics approach to define the functional significance of genetic variation in the ABCA1 gene, a cholesterol transporter crucial for the metabolism of high density lipoprotein cholesterol. To predict the functional consequence of each coding single nucleotide polymorphism and mutation in this gene, we calculated a substitution position-specific evolutionary conservation score for each variant, which considers site-specific variation among evolutionarily related proteins. To test the bioinformatics predictions experimentally, we evaluated the biochemical consequence of these sequence variants by examining the ability of cell lines stably transfected with the ABCA1 alleles to elicit cholesterol efflux. Our bioinformatics approach correctly predicted the functional impact of greater than 94% of the naturally occurring variants we assessed. The bioinformatics predictions were significantly correlated with the degree of functional impairment of ABCA1 mutations (r2 = 0.62, p = 0.0008. These results have allowed us to define the impact of genetic variation on ABCA1 function and to suggest that the in silico evolutionary approach we used may be a useful tool in general for predicting the effects of DNA variation on gene function. In addition, our data suggest that considering patterns of positive selection, along with patterns of negative selection such as evolutionary conservation, may improve our ability to predict the functional effects of amino acid variation.

  4. Prediction of thyroidal 131I effective half-life in patients with Graves' disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruiguo; Zhang, Guizhi; Wang, Renfei; Tan, Jian; He, Yajing; Meng, Zhaowei

    2017-10-06

    Calculation of effective thyroidal half-life (Teff) of iodine-131( 131 I) is cumbersome and tedious. The aim of this study was to investigate factors that could be used to predict Teff and to develop a Teff prediction model in Graves' disease patients. A total of 256 patients with GD were involved in this study. We investigated the influences of age, gender, disease duration, thyroid weight, antithyroid drugs, antithyroid drugs discontinuation period (ADP), thyroid function indexes, thyroid autoantibodies, thyroid-stimulating hormone receptor antibody (TRAb) level and radioactive iodine uptake (RAIU) values before 131 I therapy on Teff, applying univariate and multivariate analyses. Teff correlated negatively with thyroid peroxidase antibody, TRAb and thyroid weight, as well as positively with 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour RAIU. Additionally, a longer ADP (especially≥ 14d) or without antithyroid drugs before 131 I therapy led to a longer Teff. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis showed that 24-hour and 72-hour RAIU were statistically significant predictors of Teff ( P Graves' disease, with high prediction accuracy.

  5. MEMS based shock pulse detection sensor for improved rotary Stirling cooler end of life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hübner, M.; Münzberg, M.

    2018-05-01

    The widespread use of rotary Stirling coolers in high performance thermal imagers used for critical 24/7 surveillance tasks justifies any effort to significantly enhance the reliability and predictable uptime of those coolers. Typically the lifetime of the whole imaging device is limited due to continuous wear and finally failure of the rotary compressor of the Stirling cooler, especially due to failure of the comprised bearings. MTTF based lifetime predictions, even based on refined MTTF models taking operational scenario dependent scaling factors into account, still lack in precision to forecast accurately the end of life (EOL) of individual coolers. Consequently preventive maintenance of individual coolers to avoid failures of the main sensor in critical operational scenarios are very costly or even useless. We have developed an integrated test method based on `Micro Electromechanical Systems', so called MEMS sensors, which significantly improves the cooler EOL prediction. The recently commercially available MEMS acceleration sensors have mechanical resonance frequencies up to 50 kHz. They are able to detect solid borne shock pulses in the cooler structure, originating from e.g. metal on metal impacts driven by periodical forces acting on moving inner parts of the rotary compressor within wear dependent slack and play. The impact driven transient shock pulse analyses uses only the high frequency signal <10kHz and differs therefore from the commonly used broadband low frequencies vibrational analysis of reciprocating machines. It offers a direct indicator of the individual state of wear. The predictive cooler lifetime model based on the shock pulse analysis is presented and results are discussed.

  6. Prediction of significant conduction disease through noninvasive assessment of cardiac calcification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainigi, Sumeet K; Chebrolu, Lakshmi Hima Bindu; Romero-Corral, Abel; Mehta, Vinay; Machado, Rodolfo Rozindo; Konecny, Tomas; Pressman, Gregg S

    2012-10-01

    Cardiac calcification is associated with coronary artery disease, arrhythmias, conduction disease, and adverse cardiac events. Recently, we have described an echocardiographic-based global cardiac calcification scoring system. The objective of this study was to evaluate the severity of cardiac calcification in patients with permanent pacemakers as based on this scoring system. Patients with a pacemaker implanted within the 2-year study period with a previous echocardiogram were identified and underwent blinded global cardiac calcium scoring. These patients were compared to matched control patients without a pacemaker who also underwent calcium scoring. The study group consisted of 49 patients with pacemaker implantation who were compared to 100 matched control patients. The mean calcium score in the pacemaker group was 3.3 ± 2.9 versus 1.8 ± 2.0 (P = 0.006) in the control group. Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed glomerular filtration rate and calcium scoring to be significant predictors of the presence of a pacemaker. Echocardiographic-based calcium scoring correlates with the presence of severe conduction disease requiring a pacemaker. © 2012, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Significance of specificity of Tinetti B-POMA test and fall risk factor in third age of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avdić, Dijana; Pecar, Dzemal

    2006-02-01

    As for the third age, psychophysical abilities of humans gradually decrease, while the ability of adaptation to endogenous and exogenous burdens is going down. In 1987, "Harada" et al. (1) have found out that 9.5 million persons in USA have difficulties running daily activities, while 59% of them (which is 5.6 million) are older than 65 years in age. The study has encompassed 77 questioned persons of both sexes with their average age 71.73 +/- 5.63 (scope of 65-90 years in age), chosen by random sampling. Each patient has been questioned in his/her own home and familiar to great extent with the methodology and aims of the questionnaire. Percentage of questioned women was 64.94% (50 patients) while the percentage for men was 35.06% (27 patients). As for the value of risk factor score achieved conducting the questionnaire and B-POMA test, there are statistically significant differences between men and women, as well as between patients who fell and those who never did. As for the way of life (alone or in the community), there are no significant statistical differences. Average results gained through B-POMA test in this study are statistically significantly higher in men and patients who did not provide data about falling, while there was no statistically significant difference in the way of life. In relation to the percentage of maximum number of positive answers to particular questions, regarding gender, way of life and the data about falling, there were no statistically significant differences between the value of B-POMA test and the risk factor score (the questionnaire).

  8. New pulmonary vein Doppler echocardiographic index predicts significant interatrial shunting in secundum atrial septal defect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Yat-Yin; Fang, Fang; Yip, Gabriel Wai-Kwok; Li, Zhi-An; Yang, Ya; Yu, Cheuk-Man

    2012-09-20

    The relation between pulmonary venous flow (PVF) pattern and degree of left-to-right interatrial shunting (IAS) in patients with secundum atrial septal defect (ASD) is unknown. Fifty consecutive ASD patients (14 males, 36 ± 17 years) received transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) before and 1 day after transcatheter closure and their results were compared to 40 controls. The ratio of pulmonary-to-systemic flows (Qp/Qs) was assessed by TTE and invasive oximetry. Pre-closure PV systolic (PVs), diastolic (PVd) velocities and velocity-time integral (PV-VTI) increased, time from onset of ECG Q-wave to the peak PV diastolic wave (Q-PVd) shortened and atrial reversal (PVar) velocity significantly decreased as compared to normals. These findings normalized after closure. Patients with large IAS (defined as invasive Qp/Qs ≥ 2) had higher PVs, PVd and PV-VTI, shorter Q-PVd but lower PVar (all pIAS. Invasive Qp/Qs ratios correlated with PVs, PVd, PV-VTI, Q-PVd and TTE-derived Qp/Qs ratios, ASD sizes and RV end-diastolic dimensions (all pIAS after multivariate analysis. The corresponding sensitivity, specificity and AUC were 89%, 82% and 0.90 respectively for a PV-VTI of 30 cm (pIAS have distinguishable PVF features. Doppler evaluation of PV-VTI is a novel additional tool for assessing the magnitude of shunting in these patients non-invasively. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. PREDICTIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF ANTI-HLA AUTOANTIBODIES IN HEART TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. P. Shevchenko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. The aim of this study was to define the role of preformed anti-HLA antibodies (anti-HLA in antibody-mediated rejection (AMR and cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV after heart transplantation. Materials and Methods. 140 heart transplant recipients were followed after heart transplantation performed for 106 dilated and 34 – ischemic cardiomyopathy. Anti-HLA was determined before transplantation by ELISA. Results. Recipients were divided into 2 groups: anti-HLA positive (n = 45, 32,1% and anti-HLA negative (n = 95, 67,9%. The incidence of AMR in anti-HLA positive group was 12 (26,67% and 11 (11,58% in anti-HLA negative group. Risk of AMR was significantly higher in anti-HLA positive recipients (RR 2,3: 95% CI 1,02–4,81, р = 0,03. During first three years after transplantation CAV was diagnosed in 9 (20% of anti-HLA positive recipients and in 7 (6,8% of patients without anti-HLA. (RR 2,7: 95% CI 1,08–6,82, р = 0,03. Survival in freedom from CAV in anti-HLA negative recipients was much higher than in anti-HLA positive recipients (0,89 ± 0,07, 0,72 ± 0,06, resp. (p = 0,02.Conclusions. The presence of preformed anti-HLA antibodies in candidates for heart transplantation increase the risk of AMR and CAV post transplantation in 2,3 and 2,7 times, respectively. 

  10. Fatigue Life Prediction of Self-Piercing Rivet Joints Between Magnesium and Aluminum Alloys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kang Hong-Tae

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Various light materials including aluminum alloys and magnesium alloys are being used to reduce the weight of vehicle structures. Joining of dissimilar materials is always a challenging task to construct a solid structure. Self-piercing rivet (SPR joint is one of various joining methods for dissimilar materials. Front shock tower structures were constructed with magnesium alloy (AM60 joined to aluminum alloy (Al6082 by SPR joints. To evaluate the durability performance of the SPR joints in the structures, fatigue tests of the front shock tower structures were conducted with constant amplitude loadings. Furthermore, this study investigated fatigue life prediction method of SPR joints and compared the fatigue life prediction results with that of experimental results. For fatigue life prediction of the SPR joints in the front shock tower structures, lap-shear and cross-tension specimens of SPR joint were constructed and tested to characterize the fatigue properties of the SPR joint. Then, the SPR joint was represented with area contact method (ACM in finite element (FE models. The load-life curves of the lap-shear and cross-tension specimens were converted to a structural stress-life (S-N curve of the SPR joints. The S-N curve was used to predict fatigue life of SPR joints in the front shock tower structures. The test results and the prediction results were well correlated.

  11. Prediction of multiaxial fatigue life for notched specimens of titanium alloy TC4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Z. R.; Li, Z. X. [Southeast University, Nanjing (China); Hu, X. T.; Song, Y. D. [Nanjing University, Nanjing (China)

    2016-05-15

    Both the proportional and nonproportional multiaxial fatigue tests were conducted on two kinds of notched specimens of titanium alloy TC4. The multiaxial fatigue critical area of notched specimen is considered as the location experiencing the maximum damage. It is unsatisfactory to predict the multiaxial fatigue life with the local stress and strain in the fatigue critical area. The critical distance concepts are employed in the multiaxial life prediction method for notched specimens. The proposed method was checked by the test data of TC4 notched specimens. The prediction results are almost within a factor of three scatter band of the test results.

  12. Development of laboratory acceleration test method for service life prediction of concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, M. S.; Song, Y. C.; Bang, K. S.; Lee, J. S.; Kim, D. K.

    1999-01-01

    Service life prediction of nuclear power plants depends on the application of history of structures, field inspection and test, the development of laboratory acceleration tests, their analysis method and predictive model. In this study, laboratory acceleration test method for service life prediction of concrete structures and application of experimental test results are introduced. This study is concerned with environmental condition of concrete structures and is to develop the acceleration test method for durability factors of concrete structures e.g. carbonation, sulfate attack, freeze-thaw cycles and shrinkage-expansion etc

  13. SOFT COMPUTING SINGLE HIDDEN LAYER MODELS FOR SHELF LIFE PREDICTION OF BURFI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Goyal

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Burfi is an extremely popular sweetmeat, which is prepared by desiccating the standardized water buffalo milk. Soft computing feedforward single layer models were developed for predicting the shelf life of burfi stored at 30g.C. The data of the product relating to moisture, titratable acidity, free fatty acids, tyrosine, and peroxide value were used as input variables, and the overall acceptability score as output variable. The results showed excellent agreement between the experimental and the predicted data, suggesting that the developed soft computing model can alternatively be used for predicting the shelf life of burfi.

  14. Development and Life Prediction of Erosion Resistant Turbine Low Conductivity Thermal Barrier Coatings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dongming; Miller, Robert A.; Kuczmarski, Maria A.

    2010-01-01

    Future rotorcraft propulsion systems are required to operate under highly-loaded conditions and in harsh sand erosion environments, thereby imposing significant material design and durability issues. The incorporation of advanced thermal barrier coatings (TBC) in high pressure turbine systems enables engine designs with higher inlet temperatures, thus improving the engine efficiency, power density and reliability. The impact and erosion resistance of turbine thermal barrier coating systems are crucial to the turbine coating technology application, because a robust turbine blade TBC system is a prerequisite for fully utilizing the potential coating technology benefit in the rotorcraft propulsion. This paper describes the turbine blade TBC development in addressing the coating impact and erosion resistance. Advanced thermal barrier coating systems with improved performance have also been validated in laboratory simulated engine erosion and/or thermal gradient environments. A preliminary life prediction modeling approach to emphasize the turbine blade coating erosion is also presented.

  15. Faculty Decisions on Serials Subscriptions Differ Significantly from Decisions Predicted by a Bibliometric Tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sue F. Phelps

    2016-03-01

    of the faculty choices. The p-value for this relationship was less than 0.0001, also indicating that the result was not by chance. A quadratic model plotted alongside the previous linear model follows a similar pattern. The p-value of the comparison is 0.0002, which indicates the quadratic model’s fit cannot be explained by random chance. Main Results – The authors point out three outstanding findings. First, the match rate between faculty valuations and bibliometric scores for serials is 65%. This exceeds the 50% rate that would indicate random association, but also indicates a statistically significant difference between faculty and bibliometric valuations. Secondly, the match rate with the bibliometric scores for titles that faculty chose to keep (73% was higher than those they chose to cancel (54%. Thirdly, the match rate increased with higher bibliometric scores. Conclusions – Though the authors identify only a modest degree of similarity between faculty and bibliometric valuations of serials, it is noted that there is more agreement in the higher valued serials than the lower valued serials. With that in mind, librarians might focus faculty review on the lower scoring titles in the future, taking into consideration that unique faculty interests may drive selection at that level and would need to be balanced with the mission of the library.

  16. Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

    2005-01-01

    An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

  17. A study on the fatigue life prediction of tire belt-layers using probabilistic method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Dong Woo; Park, Jong Sang; Lee, Tae Won; Kim, Seong Rae; Sung, Ki Deug; Huh, Sun Chul

    2013-01-01

    Tire belt separation failure is occurred by internal cracks generated in *1 and *2 belt layers and by its growth. And belt failure seriously affects tire endurance. Therefore, to improve the tire endurance, it is necessary to analyze tire crack growth behavior and predict fatigue life. Generally, the prediction of tire endurance is performed by the experimental method using tire test machine. But it takes much cost and time to perform experiment. In this paper, to predict tire fatigue life, we applied deterministic fracture mechanics approach, based on finite element analysis. Also, probabilistic analysis method based on statistics using Monte Carlo simulation is presented. Above mentioned two methods include a global-local finite element analysis to provide the detail necessary to model explicitly an internal crack and calculate the J-integral for tire life prediction.

  18. Life prediction of steam generator tubing due to stress corrosion crack using Monte Carlo Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Jun; Liu Fei; Cheng Guangxu; Zhang Zaoxiao

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → A life prediction model for SG tubing was proposed. → The initial crack length for SCC was determined. → Two failure modes called rupture mode and leak mode were considered. → A probabilistic life prediction code based on Monte Carlo method was developed. - Abstract: The failure of steam generator tubing is one of the main accidents that seriously affects the availability and safety of a nuclear power plant. In order to estimate the probability of the failure, a probabilistic model was established to predict the whole life-span and residual life of steam generator (SG) tubing. The failure investigated was stress corrosion cracking (SCC) after the generation of one through-wall axial crack. Two failure modes called rupture mode and leak mode based on probabilistic fracture mechanics were considered in this proposed model. It took into account the variance in tube geometry and material properties, and the variance in residual stresses and operating conditions, all of which govern the propagations of cracks. The proposed model was numerically calculated by using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The plugging criteria were first verified and then the whole life-span and residual life of the SG tubing were obtained. Finally, important sensitivity analysis was also carried out to identify the most important parameters affecting the life of SG tubing. The results will be useful in developing optimum strategies for life-cycle management of the feedwater system in nuclear power plants.

  19. An Analytical Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Fracture Mechanics and Crack Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsø, Jan Behrend; Agerskov, Henning

    1996-01-01

    test specimens are compared with fatigue life predictions using a fracture mechanics approach. In the calculation of the fatigue life, the influence of the welding residual stresses and crack closure on the fatigue crack growth is considered. A description of the crack closure model for analytical...... determination of the fatigue life is included. Furthermore, the results obtained in studies of the various parameters that have an influence on the fatigue life, are given. A very good agreement between experimental and analytical results is obtained, when the crack closure model is used in determination...... of the analytical fatigue lives. Both the analytical and experimental results obtained show that the Miner rule may give quite unconservative predictions of the fatigue life for the types of stochastic loading studied....

  20. An Analytical Model for Fatigue Life Prediction Based on Fracture Mechanics and Crack Closure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsø, Jan Behrend; Agerskov, Henning

    1996-01-01

    test specimens are compared with fatigue life predictions using a fracture mechanics approach. In the calculation of the fatigue life, the influence of the welding residual stresses and crack closure on the fatigue crack growth is considered. A description of the crack closure model for analytical...... of the analytical fatigue lives. Both the analytical and experimental results obtained show that the Miner rule may give quite unconservative predictions of the fatigue life for the types of stochastic loading studied....... determination of the fatigue life is included. Furthermore, the results obtained in studies of the various parameters that have an influence on the fatigue life, are given. A very good agreement between experimental and analytical results is obtained, when the crack closure model is used in determination...

  1. Prediction of Quality of Life of Non–Insulin-Dependent Diabetic Patients Based on Perceived Social Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Shareh

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: The objective of this study was to predic quality of life based on perceived social support components in non–insulin-dependent diabetic patients.Materials and Method: Fifty patients with non–insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus from Al-Zahra diabetic center in Shiraz participated in a cross-sectional study via survey instrument. All subjects completed multidimensional scale of perceived social support (MSPSS and world health organization quality of life- brief (WHOQOL-BREF questionnaires. Results: On the basis of stepwise multiple regression analysis friends and family dimensions of perceived social support were the best predictors of the quality of life and its dimensions (p<0.01.Conclusion: Friends and family dimensions of perceived social support have significant contributions in predicting quality of life of patients with non–insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

  2. A critical review of predictive models for the onset of significant void in forced-convection subcooled boiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorra, H.; Lee, S.C.; Bankoff, S.G.

    1993-06-01

    This predictive models for the onset of significant void (OSV) in forced-convection subcooled boiling are reviewed and compared with extensive data. Three analytical models and seven empirical correlations are considered in this review. These models and correlations are put onto a common basis and are compared, again on a common basis, with a variety of data. The evaluation of their range of validity and applicability under various operating conditions are discussed. The results show that the correlations of Saha-Zuber seems to be the best model to predict OSV in vertical subcooled boiling flow

  3. Towards a Universal Biology: Is the Origin and Evolution of Life Predictable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothschild, Lynn J.

    2017-01-01

    The origin and evolution of life seems an unpredictable oddity, based on the quirks of contingency. Celebrated by the late Stephen Jay Gould in several books, "evolution by contingency" has all the adventure of a thriller, but lacks the predictive power of the physical sciences. Not necessarily so, replied Simon Conway Morris, for convergence reassures us that certain evolutionary responses are replicable. The outcome of this debate is critical to Astrobiology. How can we understand where we came from on Earth without prophesy? Further, we cannot design a rational strategy for the search for life elsewhere - or to understand what the future will hold for life on Earth and beyond - without extrapolating from pre-biotic chemistry and evolution. There are several indirect approaches to understanding, and thus describing, what life must be. These include philosophical approaches to defining life (is there even a satisfactory definition of life?), using what we know of physics, chemistry and life to imagine alternate scenarios, using different approaches that life takes as pseudoreplicates (e.g., ribosomal vs non-ribosomal protein synthesis), and experimental approaches to understand the art of the possible. Given that: (1) Life is a process based on physical components rather than simply an object; (2). Life is likely based on organic carbon and needs a solvent for chemistry, most likely water, and (3) Looking for convergence in terrestrial evolution we can predict certain tendencies, if not quite "laws", that provide predictive power. Biological history must obey the laws of physics and chemistry, the principles of natural selection, the constraints of an evolutionary past, genetics, and developmental biology. This amalgam creates a surprising amount of predictive power in the broad outline. Critical is the apparent prevalence of organic chemistry, and uniformity in the universe of the laws of chemistry and physics. Instructive is the widespread occurrence of

  4. LCF life prediction for waspaloy in the creep-fatigue interaction regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeom, Jong Taek; Park, Nho Kwang

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes the empirical rule of strain rate modified linear accumulation of creep damage(SRM rule) for Low-Cycle Fatigue(LCF) life prediction of Waspaloy in the creep-fatigue interaction regime and Chaboche type unified viscoplastic model predicting the stress-strain response in various cyclic loading conditions. The comparison of the experimental data and the predictions for strain controlled LCF tests carried out for various strain ranges at 600 .deg. C and 650 .deg. C was made. Chaboche type unified viscoplastic model described efficiently the inelastic deformation behavior during LCF tests. Crack-initiation lifting method to predict the material life was investigated with Strain Rate Modification(SRM) rule. The application of SRM rule to LCF tests on Waspaloy indicated a good agreement between measured and predicted cycles to failure

  5. The Significance of Microbe-Mineral-Biomarker Interactions in the Detection of Life on Mars and Beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röling, Wilfred F M; Aerts, Joost W; Patty, C H Lucas; ten Kate, Inge Loes; Ehrenfreund, Pascale; Direito, Susana O L

    2015-06-01

    The detection of biomarkers plays a central role in our effort to establish whether there is, or was, life beyond Earth. In this review, we address the importance of considering mineralogy in relation to the selection of locations and biomarker detection methodologies with characteristics most promising for exploration. We review relevant mineral-biomarker and mineral-microbe interactions. The local mineralogy on a particular planet reflects its past and current environmental conditions and allows a habitability assessment by comparison with life under extreme conditions on Earth. The type of mineral significantly influences the potential abundances and types of biomarkers and microorganisms containing these biomarkers. The strong adsorptive power of some minerals aids in the preservation of biomarkers and may have been important in the origin of life. On the other hand, this strong adsorption as well as oxidizing properties of minerals can interfere with efficient extraction and detection of biomarkers. Differences in mechanisms of adsorption and in properties of minerals and biomarkers suggest that it will be difficult to design a single extraction procedure for a wide range of biomarkers. While on Mars samples can be used for direct detection of biomarkers such as nucleic acids, amino acids, and lipids, on other planetary bodies remote spectrometric detection of biosignatures has to be relied upon. The interpretation of spectral signatures of photosynthesis can also be affected by local mineralogy. We identify current gaps in our knowledge and indicate how they may be filled to improve the chances of detecting biomarkers on Mars and beyond.

  6. [Significance and necessity of developing quality of life questionnaire for cancer patients adapting to traditional Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Jie

    2006-09-01

    The clinical evaluation system for therapeutic effects of tumor, which focuses on survival period and tumor response rate, has been proved not very proper for evaluating the therapeutic effects of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). Quality of life (QOL) has been introduced into the effective evaluation system of TCM and integrative medicine because of its similarity in concept and extension with TCM at theory basis, syndrome differentiation-treatment, and evaluation of therapeutic effects. But there are no QOL questionnaires which can evaluate the therapeutic effects of TCM and integrative medicine precisely. This article discussed the necessity and significance of developing QOL questionnaire special for TCM.

  7. Creep-fatigue life prediction method using Diercks equation for Cr-Mo steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonoya, Keiji; Nonaka, Isamu; Kitagawa, Masaki

    1990-01-01

    For dealing with the situation that creep-fatigue life properties of materials do not exist, a development of the simple method to predict creep-fatigue life properties is necessary. A method to predict the creep-fatigue life properties of Cr-Mo steels is proposed on the basis of D. Diercks equation which correlates the creep-fatigue lifes of SUS 304 steels under various temperatures, strain ranges, strain rates and hold times. The accuracy of the proposed method was compared with that of the existing methods. The following results were obtained. (1) Fatigue strength and creep rupture strength of Cr-Mo steel are different from those of SUS 304 steel. Therefore in order to apply Diercks equation to creep-fatigue prediction for Cr-Mo steel, the difference of fatigue strength was found to be corrected by fatigue life ratio of both steels and the difference of creep rupture strength was found to be corrected by the equivalent temperature corresponding to equal strength of both steels. (2) Creep-fatigue life can be predicted by the modified Diercks equation within a factor of 2 which is nearly as precise as the accuracy of strain range partitioning method. Required test and analysis procedure of this method are not so complicated as strain range partitioning method. (author)

  8. Fatigue Life Prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete Based on the Local Stress-Strain Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulian Zheng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Previously published studies have proposed fatigue life prediction models for dense graded asphalt pavement based on flexural fatigue test. This study focused on the fatigue life prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete (HMAC pavement using the local strain-stress method and direct tension fatigue test. First, the direct tension fatigue test at various strain levels was conducted on HMAC prism samples cut from plate specimens. Afterwards, their true stress-strain loop curves were obtained and modified to develop the strain-fatigue life equation. Then the nominal strain of HMAC course determined using finite element method was converted into local strain using the Neuber method. Finally, based on the established fatigue equation and converted local strain, a method to predict the pavement fatigue crack initiation life was proposed and the fatigue life of a typical HMAC overlay pavement which runs a risk of bottom-up cracking was predicted and validated. Results show that the proposed method was able to produce satisfactory crack initiation life.

  9. How long will my mouse live? Machine learning approaches for prediction of mouse life span.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swindell, William R; Harper, James M; Miller, Richard A

    2008-09-01

    Prediction of individual life span based on characteristics evaluated at middle-age represents a challenging objective for aging research. In this study, we used machine learning algorithms to construct models that predict life span in a stock of genetically heterogeneous mice. Life-span prediction accuracy of 22 algorithms was evaluated using a cross-validation approach, in which models were trained and tested with distinct subsets of data. Using a combination of body weight and T-cell subset measures evaluated before 2 years of age, we show that the life-span quartile to which an individual mouse belongs can be predicted with an accuracy of 35.3% (+/-0.10%). This result provides a new benchmark for the development of life-span-predictive models, but improvement can be expected through identification of new predictor variables and development of computational approaches. Future work in this direction can provide tools for aging research and will shed light on associations between phenotypic traits and longevity.

  10. The fatigue life prediction of aluminium alloy using genetic algorithm and neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susmikanti, Mike

    2013-09-01

    The behavior of the fatigue life of the industrial materials is very important. In many cases, the material with experiencing fatigue life cannot be avoided, however, there are many ways to control their behavior. Many investigations of the fatigue life phenomena of alloys have been done, but it is high cost and times consuming computation. This paper report the modeling and simulation approaches to predict the fatigue life behavior of Aluminum Alloys and resolves some problems of computation. First, the simulation using genetic algorithm was utilized to optimize the load to obtain the stress values. These results can be used to provide N-cycle fatigue life of the material. Furthermore, the experimental data was applied as input data in the neural network learning, while the samples data were applied for testing of the training data. Finally, the multilayer perceptron algorithm is applied to predict whether the given data sets in accordance with the fatigue life of the alloy. To achieve rapid convergence, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was also employed. The simulations results shows that the fatigue behaviors of aluminum under pressure can be predicted. In addition, implementation of neural networks successfully identified a model for material fatigue life.

  11. Appetite and Weight Loss Symptoms in Late-Life Depression Predict Dementia Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Sayoni; Hatch, Daniel J; Hayden, Kathleen M; Steffens, David C; Potter, Guy G

    2016-10-01

    Identify depression symptoms during active late-life depression (LLD) that predict conversion to dementia. The authors followed a cohort of 290 participants from the Neurocognitive Outcomes of Depression in the Elderly study. All participants were actively depressed and cognitively normal at enrollment. Depression symptom factors were derived from prior factor analysis: anhedonia and sadness, suicidality and guilt, appetite and weight loss, sleep disturbance, and anxiety and tension. Cox regression analysis modeled time to Alzheimer disease (AD) and non-AD dementia onset on depression symptom factors, along with age, education, sex, and race. Significant dementia predictors were tested for interaction with age at depression onset. Higher scores on the appetite and weight loss symptom factor were associated with an increased hazard of both AD and non-AD dementia. This factor was moderated by age at first depression onset, such that higher scores were associated with higher risk of non-AD dementia when depression first occurred earlier in life. Other depression symptom factors and overall depression severity were not related to risk of AD or non-AD dementia. Results suggest greater appetite/weight loss symptoms in active episodes of LLD are associated with increased likelihood of AD and non-AD dementia, but possibly via different pathways moderated by age at first depression onset. Results may help clinicians identify individuals with LLD at higher risk of developing AD and non-AD dementia and design interventions that reduce this risk. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Surrogate inaccuracy in predicting older adults' desire for life-sustaining interventions in the event of decisional incapacity: is it due in part to erroneous quality-of-life assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, Gina; Sene, Modou; Arcand, Marcel

    2017-07-01

    Family members are often called upon to make decisions for an incapacitated relative. Yet they have difficulty predicting a loved one's desire to receive treatments in hypothetical situations. We tested the hypothesis that this difficulty could in part be explained by discrepant quality-of-life assessments. The data come from 235 community-dwelling adults aged 70 years and over who rated their quality of life and desire for specified interventions in four health states (current state, mild to moderate stroke, incurable brain cancer, and severe dementia). All ratings were made on Likert-type scales. Using identical rating scales, a surrogate chosen by the older adult was asked to predict the latter's responses. Linear mixed models were fitted to determine whether differences in quality-of-life ratings between the older adult and surrogate were associated with surrogates' inaccuracy in predicting desire for treatment. The difference in quality-of-life ratings was a significant predictor of prediction inaccuracy for the three hypothetical health states (p quality of life compared to the older adult, the more he or she overestimated the older adult's desire to be treated. Discrepant quality-of-life ratings are associated with surrogates' difficulty in predicting desire for life-sustaining interventions in hypothetical situations. This finding underscores the importance of discussing anticipated quality of life in states of cognitive decline, to better prepare family members for making difficult decisions for their loved ones. ISRCTN89993391.

  13. Prediction Model and Principle of End-of-Life Threshold for Lithium Ion Batteries Based on Open Circuit Voltage Drifts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, Yingzhi; Yang, Jie; Du, Chunyu; Zuo, Pengjian; Gao, Yunzhi; Cheng, Xinqun; Ma, Yulin; Yin, Geping

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Open circuit voltage evolution over ageing of lithium ion batteries is deciphered. •The mechanism responsible for the end-of-life (EOL) threshold is elaborated. •A new prediction model of EOL threshold with improved accuracy is developed. •This EOL prediction model is promising for the applications in electric vehicles. -- Abstract: The end-of-life (EOL) of a lithium ion battery (LIB) is defined as the time point when the LIB can no longer provide sufficient power or energy to accomplish its intended function. Generally, the EOL occurs abruptly when the degradation of a LIB reaches the threshold. Therefore, current prediction methods of EOL by extrapolating the early degradation behavior often result in significant errors. To address this problem, this paper analyzes the reason for the EOL threshold of a LIB with shallow depth of discharge. It is found that the sudden appearance of EOL threshold results from the drift of open circuit voltage (OCV) at the end of both shallow depth and full discharges. Further, a new EOL threshold prediction model with highly improved accuracy is developed based on the OCV drifts and their evolution mechanism, which can effectively avoid the misjudgment of EOL threshold. The accuracy of this EOL threshold prediction model is verified by comparing with experimental results. The EOL threshold prediction model can be applied to other battery chemistry systems and its possible application in electric vehicles is finally discussed.

  14. Life-table studies revealed significant effects of deforestation on the development and survivorship of Anopheles minimus larvae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoming; Zhou, Guofa; Zhong, Daibin; Wang, Xiaoling; Wang, Ying; Yang, Zhaoqing; Cui, Liwang; Yan, Guiyun

    2016-06-06

    Many developing countries are experiencing rapid ecological changes such as deforestation and shifting agricultural practices. These environmental changes may have an important consequence on malaria due to their impact on vector survival and reproduction. Despite intensive deforestation and malaria transmission in the China-Myanmar border area, the impact of deforestation on malaria vectors in the border area is unknown. We conducted life table studies on Anopheles minimus larvae to determine the pupation rate and development time in microcosms under deforested, banana plantation, and forested environments. The pupation rate of An. minimus was 3.8 % in the forested environment. It was significantly increased to 12.5 % in banana plantations and to 52.5 % in the deforested area. Deforestation reduced larval-to-pupal development time by 1.9-3.3 days. Food supplementation to aquatic habitats in forested environments and banana plantations significantly increased larval survival rate to a similar level as in the deforested environment. Deforestation enhanced the survival and development of An. minimus larvae, a major malaria vector in the China-Myanmar border area. Experimental determination of the life table parameters on mosquito larvae under a variety of environmental conditions is valuable to model malaria transmission dynamics and impact by climate and environmental changes.

  15. Influences of cyclic deformation on creep property and creep-fatigue life prediction considering them

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yukio

    2009-01-01

    Evaluation of creep-fatigue is essential in design and life management of high-temperature components in power generation plants. Cyclic deformation may alter creep property of the materials and its consideration may improve predictability of creep-fatigue failure life. To understand them, creep tests were conducted for the materials subjected to cyclic loading and their creep rupture and deformation behaviors were compared with those of as-received materials. Both 316FR and modified 9Cr-1Mo steel were tested. (1) Creep rupture time and elongation generally tend to decrease with cyclic loading in both materials, and especially elongation of 316FR drastically decreases by being cyclically deformed. (2) Amount of primary creep deformation decreases by cyclic loading and the ways to improve its predictability were developed. (3) Use of creep rupture ductility after cyclic deformation, instead of that of as-received material, brought about clear improvement of life prediction in a modified ductility exhaustion approach. (author)

  16. The prediction of the residual life of electromechanical equipment based on the artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhukovskiy, Yu L.; Korolev, N. A.; Babanova, I. S.; Boikov, A. V.

    2017-10-01

    This article is devoted to the prediction of the residual life based on an estimate of the technical state of the induction motor. The proposed system allows to increase the accuracy and completeness of diagnostics by using an artificial neural network (ANN), and also identify and predict faulty states of an electrical equipment in dynamics. The results of the proposed system for estimation the technical condition are probability technical state diagrams and a quantitative evaluation of the residual life, taking into account electrical, vibrational, indirect parameters and detected defects. Based on the evaluation of the technical condition and the prediction of the residual life, a decision is made to change the control of the operating and maintenance modes of the electric motors.

  17. A New Predictive Model Based on the ABC Optimized Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Approach for Predicting the Remaining Useful Life in Aircraft Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulino José García Nieto

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Remaining useful life (RUL estimation is considered as one of the most central points in the prognostics and health management (PHM. The present paper describes a nonlinear hybrid ABC–MARS-based model for the prediction of the remaining useful life of aircraft engines. Indeed, it is well-known that an accurate RUL estimation allows failure prevention in a more controllable way so that the effective maintenance can be carried out in appropriate time to correct impending faults. The proposed hybrid model combines multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems, with the artificial bee colony (ABC technique. This optimization technique involves parameter setting in the MARS training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. However, its use in reliability applications has not yet been widely explored. Bearing this in mind, remaining useful life values have been predicted here by using the hybrid ABC–MARS-based model from the remaining measured parameters (input variables for aircraft engines with success. A correlation coefficient equal to 0.92 was obtained when this hybrid ABC–MARS-based model was applied to experimental data. The agreement of this model with experimental data confirmed its good performance. The main advantage of this predictive model is that it does not require information about the previous operation states of the aircraft engine.

  18. Life Prediction Issues in Thermal/Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ashwin R.; Brewer, David N.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

    2001-01-01

    Issues and design requirements for the environmental barrier coating (EBC)/thermal barrier coating (TBC) life that are general and those specific to the NASA Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) development program have been described. The current state and trend of the research, methods in vogue related to the failure analysis, and long-term behavior and life prediction of EBCITBC systems are reported. Also, the perceived failure mechanisms, variables, and related uncertainties governing the EBCITBC system life are summarized. A combined heat transfer and structural analysis approach based on the oxidation kinetics using the Arrhenius theory is proposed to develop a life prediction model for the EBC/TBC systems. Stochastic process-based reliability approach that includes the physical variables such as gas pressure, temperature, velocity, moisture content, crack density, oxygen content, etc., is suggested. Benefits of the reliability-based approach are also discussed in the report.

  19. NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Project Qualification Propellant Throughput Milestone: Performance, Erosion, and Thruster Service Life Prediction After 450 kg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Daniel A.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is tasked with significantly improving and extending the capabilities of current state-of-the-art NSTAR thruster. The service life capability of the NEXT ion thruster is being assessed by thruster wear test and life-modeling of critical thruster components, such as the ion optics and cathodes. The NEXT Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated to validate and qualify the NEXT thruster propellant throughput capability. The NEXT thruster completed the primary goal of the LDT; namely to demonstrate the project qualification throughput of 450 kg by the end of calendar year 2009. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated 28,500 hr of operation and processed 466 kg of xenon throughput--more than double the throughput demonstrated by the NSTAR flight-spare. Thruster performance changes have been consistent with a priori predictions. Thruster erosion has been minimal and consistent with the thruster service life assessment, which predicts the first failure mode at greater than 750 kg throughput. The life-limiting failure mode for NEXT is predicted to be loss of structural integrity of the accelerator grid due to erosion by charge-exchange ions.

  20. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    quality of life, assessed by SF-36 and SF-12, is as good at predicting ICU, 30-, and 90-day mortality as APACHE II in patients admitted to the ICU for longer than 24 hours. This indicates that estimated preadmission quality of life, potentially available in the pre-ICU setting, could aid decision making...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....

  1. Non-invasive prediction of hemodynamically significant coronary artery stenoses by contrast density difference in coronary CT angiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hell, Michaela M., E-mail: michaela.hell@uk-erlangen.de [Department of Cardiology, University of Erlangen (Germany); Dey, Damini [Department of Biomedical Sciences, Biomedical Imaging Research Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Taper Building, Room A238, 8700 Beverly Boulevard, Los Angeles, CA 90048 (United States); Marwan, Mohamed; Achenbach, Stephan; Schmid, Jasmin; Schuhbaeck, Annika [Department of Cardiology, University of Erlangen (Germany)

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • Overestimation of coronary lesions by coronary computed tomography angiography and subsequent unnecessary invasive coronary angiography and revascularization is a concern. • Differences in plaque characteristics and contrast density difference between hemodynamically significant and non-significant stenoses, as defined by invasive fractional flow reserve, were assessed. • At a threshold of ≥24%, contrast density difference predicted hemodynamically significant lesions with a specificity of 75%, sensitivity of 33%, PPV of 35% and NPV of 73%. • The determination of contrast density difference required less time than transluminal attenuation gradient measurement. - Abstract: Objectives: Coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) allows the detection of obstructive coronary artery disease. However, its ability to predict the hemodynamic significance of stenoses is limited. We assessed differences in plaque characteristics and contrast density difference between hemodynamically significant and non-significant stenoses, as defined by invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR). Methods: Lesion characteristics of 59 consecutive patients (72 lesions) in whom invasive FFR was performed in at least one coronary artery with moderate to high-grade stenoses in coronary CTA were evaluated by two experienced readers. Coronary CTA data sets were acquired on a second-generation dual-source CT scanner using retrospectively ECG-gated spiral acquisition or prospectively ECG-triggered axial acquisition mode. Plaque volume and composition (non-calcified, calcified), remodeling index as well as contrast density difference (defined as the percentage decline in luminal CT attenuation/cross-sectional area over the lesion) were assessed using a semi-automatic software tool (Autoplaq). Additionally, the transluminal attenuation gradient (defined as the linear regression coefficient between intraluminal CT attenuation and length from the ostium) was determined

  2. Remaining useful life prediction of degrading systems subjected to imperfect maintenance: Application to draught fans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhao-Qiang; Hu, Chang-Hua; Si, Xiao-Sheng; Zio, Enrico

    2018-02-01

    Current degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction studies share a common assumption that the degrading systems are not maintained or maintained perfectly (i.e., to an as-good-as new state). This paper concerns the issues of how to model the degradation process and predict the remaining useful life of degrading systems subjected to imperfect maintenance activities, which can restore the health condition of a degrading system to any degradation level between as-good-as new and as-bad-as old. Toward this end, a nonlinear model driven by Wiener process is first proposed to characterize the degradation trajectory of the degrading system subjected to imperfect maintenance, where negative jumps are incorporated to quantify the influence of imperfect maintenance activities on the system's degradation. Then, the probability density function of the remaining useful life is derived analytically by a space-scale transformation, i.e., transforming the constructed degradation model with negative jumps crossing a constant threshold level to a Wiener process model crossing a random threshold level. To implement the proposed method, unknown parameters in the degradation model are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation method. Finally, the proposed degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction method are applied to a practical case of draught fans belonging to a kind of mechanical systems from steel mills. The results reveal that, for a degrading system subjected to imperfect maintenance, our proposed method can obtain more accurate remaining useful life predictions than those of the benchmark model in literature.

  3. Surface tensions of multi-component mixed inorganic/organic aqueous systems of atmospheric significance: measurements, model predictions and importance for cloud activation predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. O. Topping

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict the physical properties of aerosol particles, it is necessary to adequately capture the behaviour of the ubiquitous complex organic components. One of the key properties which may affect this behaviour is the contribution of the organic components to the surface tension of aqueous particles in the moist atmosphere. Whilst the qualitative effect of organic compounds on solution surface tensions has been widely reported, our quantitative understanding on mixed organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems is limited. Furthermore, it is unclear whether models that exist in the literature can reproduce the surface tension variability for binary and higher order multi-component organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems of atmospheric significance. The current study aims to resolve both issues to some extent. Surface tensions of single and multiple solute aqueous solutions were measured and compared with predictions from a number of model treatments. On comparison with binary organic systems, two predictive models found in the literature provided a range of values resulting from sensitivity to calculations of pure component surface tensions. Results indicate that a fitted model can capture the variability of the measured data very well, producing the lowest average percentage deviation for all compounds studied. The performance of the other models varies with compound and choice of model parameters. The behaviour of ternary mixed inorganic/organic systems was unreliably captured by using a predictive scheme and this was dependent on the composition of the solutes present. For more atmospherically representative higher order systems, entirely predictive schemes performed poorly. It was found that use of the binary data in a relatively simple mixing rule, or modification of an existing thermodynamic model with parameters derived from binary data, was able to accurately capture the surface tension variation with concentration. Thus

  4. Ratcheting and low cycle fatigue behavior of SA333 steel and their life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paul, Surajit Kumar; Sivaprasad, S.; Dhar, S.; Tarafder, S.

    2010-01-01

    Ratcheting and low cycle fatigue (LCF) experiments have been conducted at 25 o C temperature in laboratory environment under different loading conditions. SA333 steel exhibits cyclic hardening throughout its life during LCF. It is found that ratcheting strain increases with both increasing mean stress and stress amplitude. It has also been noticed that plastic strain amplitude and plastic strain energy decrease with increase in mean stress at constant stress amplitude. Ratcheting and LCF life in the range of 10 2 -10 5 cycles have been predicted with the help of a mean stress-based fatigue lifing equation.

  5. Measures of symptoms and life quality to predict emergent use of institutional health care resources in chronic obstructive airways disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Traver, G A

    1988-11-01

    Thirty subjects with severe chronic obstructive airways disease participated in a study to identify differences in symptoms and life quality between those with high and low emergent use of institutional health care resources. Emergent use was defined as care obtained through unscheduled, nonroutine methods of access to health care providers. There were 15 subjects in each group; the groups had similar sex distribution and were not significantly different for percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (mean 29.8%), use of home oxygen (15 of 30 subjects), or prevalence of CO2 retention (nine of 30). Symptoms and life quality were measured by using three paper and pencil tests, the Bronchitis-Emphysema Symptom Checklist, the Sickness-Impact Profile, and the Katz Adjustment Scale for relatives. Findings demonstrated consistently more symptoms and impairment of life quality in the "high emergent" group. The differences reached statistical significance for irritability, anxiety, helplessness, nervousness, peripheral sensory complaints, alienation, social interaction, and emotional behavior. Discriminant analysis provided a prediction formula that yielded 80% correct prediction for the two groups.

  6. Fatigue life prediction for pressure cast transmission housings using the strain life approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varenkamp, M. [ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Abteilung TB-1, 88038 Friedrichshafen (Germany); Schoen, M.

    2011-04-15

    Pressure cast transmission housings are structural components of complex shape, which have to fulfil, amongst others, the requirements of structural durability, saving as much weight as possible. The numerical proof of structural durability is carried out using the local strain approach. One challenge is to consider the inhomogeneous material properties, as a consequence of the casting process. It shows, that local porosity is the determining factor for the components fatigue life. Coming from the experiences made using the basic version of the local strain approach the methods used to successfully adjust the procedure for calculating pressure cast components under constant and variable amplitudes are described. (Copyright copyright 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  7. Evaluation of medically significant bacteria in colonoscopes after 8 weeks of shelf life in open air storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingram, Jackie; Gaines, Peggy; Kite, Roberta; Morgan, Marcia; Spurling, Sheila; Winsett, Rebecca P

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine bacterial growth in colonoscopes in a series of graduated shelf times. There is no conclusive evidence on the length of time colonoscopes can be safely stored before requiring redisinfection. Standards for processing scopes after use are described and supported by the professional organizations of gastroenterology and infection control; however, shelf life varies from 3 to 5 days and most recommendations are based on clinical consensus. In this study, four colonoscopes were used in a clinical procedure, underwent automated high-level disinfection with 2.6% buffered glutaraldehyde, and cultured after 3, 5, 7, 14, 21, 28, 42, and 56 days of shelf time. Two investigators collected all the cultures after interrater reliability was established. Cultures were processed in the microbiology laboratory. No medically significant growth was detected at any of the culture points. At Day 14 and Day 42, one of four scopes grew fewer than two colony-forming units of a medically insignificant bacterium. Using professional standards for high-level disinfection growth was suppressed for up to 8 weeks. Further evidence to assess fungal or viral growth is needed to be able to make suggestions for colonoscope shelf life.

  8. A residual life prediction model based on the generalized σ -N curved surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongwen AN

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to investigate change rule of the residual life of structure under random repeated load, firstly, starting from the statistic meaning of random repeated load, the joint probability density function of maximum stress and minimum stress is derived based on the characteristics of order statistic (maximum order statistic and minimum order statistic; then, based on the equation of generalized σ -N curved surface, considering the influence of load cycles number on fatigue life, a relationship among minimum stress, maximum stress and residual life, that is the σmin(n- σmax(n-Nr(n curved surface model, is established; finally, the validity of the proposed model is demonstrated by a practical case. The result shows that the proposed model can reflect the influence of maximum stress and minimum stress on residual life of structure under random repeated load, which can provide a theoretical basis for life prediction and reliability assessment of structure.

  9. Predictive modelling for shelf life determination of nutricereal based fermented baby food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasane, Prasad; Jha, Alok; Sharma, Nitya

    2015-08-01

    A shelf life model based on storage temperatures was developed for a nutricereal based fermented baby food formulation. The formulated baby food samples were packaged and stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C for a test storage period of 180 days. A shelf life study was conducted using consumer and semi-trained panels, along with chemical analysis (moisture and acidity). The chemical parameters (moisture and titratable acidity) were found inadequate in determining the shelf life of the formulated product. Weibull hazard analysis was used to determine the shelf life of the product based on sensory evaluation. Considering 25 and 50 % rejection probability, the shelf life of the baby food formulation was predicted to be 98 and 322 days, 84 and 271 days, 71 and 221 days and 58 and 171 days for the samples stored at 10, 25, 37 and 45 °C, respectively. A shelf life equation was proposed using the rejection times obtained from the consumer study. Finally, the formulated baby food samples were subjected to microbial analysis for the predicted shelf life period and were found microbiologically safe for consumption during the storage period of 360 days.

  10. A computational approach for thermomechanical fatigue life prediction of dissimilarly welded superheater tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnasamy, Ram-Kumar; Seifert, Thomas; Siegele, Dieter [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    In this paper a computational approach for fatigue life prediction of dissimilarly welded superheater tubes is presented and applied to a dissimilar weld between tubes made of the nickel base alloy Alloy617 tube and the 12% chromium steel VM12. The approach comprises the calculation of the residual stresses in the welded tubes with a multi-pass dissimilar welding simulation, the relaxation of the residual stresses in a post weld heat treatment (PWHT) simulation and the fatigue life prediction using the remaining residual stresses as initial condition. A cyclic fiscoplasticity model is used to calculate the transient stresses and strains under thermocyclic service loadings. The fatigue life is predicted with a damage parameter which is based on fracture mechanics. The adjustable parameters of the model are determined based on LCF and TMF experiments. The simulations show, that the residual stresses that remain after PWHT further relax in the first loading cycles. The predicted fatigue lives depend on the residual stresses and, thus, on the choice of the loading cycle in which the damage parameter is evaluated. It the first loading cycle, where residual stresses are still present, is considered, lower fatigue lives are predicted compared to predictions considering loading cycles with relaxed residual stresses. (orig.)

  11. Clinical significance and predictive factors of early massive recurrence after radiofrequency ablation in patients with a single small hepatocellular carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju-Yeon Cho

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims Radiofrequency ablation (RFA is one of the most frequently applied curative treatments in patients with a single small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. However, the clinical significance of and risk factors for early massive recurrence after RFA—a dreadful event limiting further curative treatment—have not been fully evaluated. Methods In total, 438 patients with a single HCC of size ≤3 cm who underwent percutaneous RFA as an initial treatment between 2006 and 2009 were included. Baseline patient characteristics, overall survival, predictive factors, and recurrence after RFA were evaluated. In addition, the incidence, impact on survival, and predictive factors of early massive recurrence, and initial recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 2 years were also investigated. Results During the median follow-up of 68.4 months, recurrent HCC was confirmed in 302 (68.9% patients, with early massive recurrence in 27 patients (6.2%. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 95.4%, 84.7%, and 81.8%, respectively, in patients with no recurrence, 99.6%, 86.4%, and 70.1% in patients with recurrence within the Milan criteria or late recurrence, and 92.6%, 46.5%, and 0.05% in patients with early massive recurrence. Multivariable analysis identified older age, Child-Pugh score B or C, and early massive recurrence as predictive of poor overall survival. A tumor size of ≥2 cm and tumor location adjacent to the colon were independent risk factors predictive of early massive recurrence. Conclusions Early massive recurrence is independently predictive of poor overall survival after RFA in patients with a single small HCC. Tumors sized ≥2 cm and located adjacent to the colon appear to be independent risk factors for early massive recurrence.

  12. Life Prediction/Reliability Data of Glass-Ceramic Material Determined for Radome Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2002-01-01

    Brittle materials, ceramics, are candidate materials for a variety of structural applications for a wide range of temperatures. However, the process of slow crack growth, occurring in any loading configuration, limits the service life of structural components. Therefore, it is important to accurately determine the slow crack growth parameters required for component life prediction using an appropriate test methodology. This test methodology also should be useful in determining the influence of component processing and composition variables on the slow crack growth behavior of newly developed or existing materials, thereby allowing the component processing and composition to be tailored and optimized to specific needs. Through the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), the authors recently developed two test methods to determine the life prediction parameters of ceramics. The two test standards, ASTM 1368 for room temperature and ASTM C 1465 for elevated temperatures, were published in the 2001 Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol. 15.01. Briefly, the test method employs constant stress-rate (or dynamic fatigue) testing to determine flexural strengths as a function of the applied stress rate. The merit of this test method lies in its simplicity: strengths are measured in a routine manner in flexure at four or more applied stress rates with an appropriate number of test specimens at each applied stress rate. The slow crack growth parameters necessary for life prediction are then determined from a simple relationship between the strength and the applied stress rate. Extensive life prediction testing was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center using the developed ASTM C 1368 test method to determine the life prediction parameters of a glass-ceramic material that the Navy will use for radome applications.

  13. Evaluation of creep-fatigue life prediction methods for low-carbon/nitrogen-added SUS316

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Yukio

    1998-01-01

    Low-carbon/medium nitrogen 316 stainless steel called 316FR is a principal candidate for the high-temperature structural materials of a demonstration fast reactor plant. Because creep-fatigue damage is a dominant failure mechanism of the high-temperature materials subjected to thermal cycles, it is important to establish a reliable creep-fatigue life prediction method for this steel. Long-term creep tests and strain-controlled creep-fatigue tests have been conducted at various conditions for two different heats of the steel. In the constant load creep tests, both materials showed similar creep rupture strength but different ductility. The material with lower ductility exhibited shorter life under creep-fatigue loading conditions and correlation of creep-fatigue life with rupture ductility, rather than rupture strength, was made clear. Two kinds of creep-fatigue life prediction methods, i.e. time fraction rule and ductility exhaustion method were applied to predict the creep-fatigue life. Accurate description of stress relaxation behavior was achieved by an addition of 'viscous' strain to conventional creep strain and only the latter of which was assumed to contribute to creep damage in the application of ductility exhaustion method. The current version of the ductility exhaustion method was found to have very good accuracy in creep-fatigue life prediction, while the time fraction rule overpredicted creep-fatigue life as large as a factor of 30. To make a reliable estimation of the creep damage in actual components, use of ductility exhaustion method is strongly recommended. (author)

  14. Significance of end-of-life dreams and visions experienced by the terminally ill in rural and Urban India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhijit Kanti Dam

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: The results of our study suggest that ELDVs are not uncommon in India and the incidence does not differ significantly between rural and urban population. Our subjects found them to be distressing initially, but felt better after discussing it with our team. There was a direct correlation between severity of symptoms and occurrence and frequency of ELDVs. Another finding exclusive to our study was that the persons visualized in ELDVs did not threaten or scare the patient and the known persons visualized were seen as they were in their prime of health. We feel that addressing such 'issues' is of paramount importance with a view to providing holistic care. I feel that they strongly suggest the presence of life after death and when properly explained, can reinforce a sense of hope.

  15. Fatigue properties of JIS H3300 C1220 copper for strain life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harun, Muhammad Faiz; Mohammad, Roslina

    2018-05-01

    The existing methods for estimating strain life parameters are dependent on the material's monotonic tensile properties. However, a few of these methods yield quite complicated expressions for calculating fatigue parameters, and are specific to certain groups of materials only. The Universal Slopes method, Modified Universal Slopes method, Uniform Material Law, the Hardness method, and Medians method are a few existing methods for predicting strain-life fatigue based on monotonic tensile material properties and hardness of material. In the present study, nine methods for estimating fatigue life and properties are applied on JIS H3300 C1220 copper to determine the best methods for strain life estimation of this ductile material. Experimental strain-life curves are compared to estimations obtained using each method. Muralidharan-Manson's Modified Universal Slopes method and Bäumel-Seeger's method for unalloyed and low-alloy steels are found to yield batter accuracy in estimating fatigue life with a deviation of less than 25%. However, the prediction of both methods only yield much better accuracy for a cycle of less than 1000 or for strain amplitudes of more than 1% and less than 6%. Manson's Original Universal Slopes method and Ong's Modified Four-Point Correlation method are found to predict the strain-life fatigue of copper with better accuracy for a high number of cycles of strain amplitudes of less than 1%. The differences between mechanical behavior during monotonic and cyclic loading and the complexity in deciding the coefficient in an equation are probably the reason for the lack of a reliable method for estimating fatigue behavior using the monotonic properties of a group of materials. It is therefore suggested that a differential approach and new expressions be developed to estimate the strain-life fatigue parameters for ductile materials such as copper.

  16. A prospective evaluation of patient-reported quality-of-life after (chemo)radiation for oropharyngeal cancer: Which patients are at risk of significant quality-of-life deterioration?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Mamgani, Abrahim; Rooij, Peter van; Tans, Lisa; Verduijn, Gerda M.; Sewnaik, Aniel; Jong, Rob J. Baatenburg de

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose: To prospectively investigate the impact of different patients’ characteristics on quality-of-life (QoL) after (chemo)radiation for oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). Materials and methods: Between 2008 and 2011, 207 patients were treated with 46-Gy of (chemo)-IMRT followed by a boost by means of IMRT, brachytherapy (BT), or Cyberknife (CK). QoL-assessment was performed using the EORTC QLQ-C30, and QLQ-H and N35-questionnaires at baseline, end of treatment, 2, 4, 6 weeks and 3, 6, 12, and 18 months after treatment. The correlation between patients’ characteristics (AJCC-stage, tumor subsite, chemotherapy, neck dissection, unilateral neck irradiation, and boost technique), and changes in QoL over time were investigated. Results: At 18 months, improvements were seen in QLQ-C30 emotional functioning, insomnia, and pain and QLQ-H and N35 pain and speech. The scores on QLQ-H and N35 swallowing returned to baseline level while the scores on dry mouth, sticky saliva, opening mouth, and teeth were significantly deteriorated compared to baseline. Boost techniques and unilateral neck irradiation were significantly predictive for dry mouth, swallowing and opening mouth while chemotherapy was correlated with changes on swallowing and opening mouth scales. Conclusions: The most significant deterioration was seen in patient-related xerostomia. Boost technique, unilateral neck irradiation and chemotherapy were significantly predictive for QoL-changes over time

  17. Multi-Axial Damage Index and Accumulation Model for Predicting Fatigue Life of CMC Materials, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The fatigue life of CMCs must be well characterized for the safe and reliable use of these materials as integrated TPS components. Existing fatigue life prediction...

  18. Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

    2017-12-22

    Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting

  19. Prediction of inelastic behavior and creep-fatigue life of perforated plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Setoguchi, Katsuya; Nakano, Shohki; Nomura, Shinichi

    1991-01-01

    Prediction methods of macroscopic and local stress-strain behavior of perforated plates in plastic and creep regime which are proposed by the authors are applied to the inelastic analysis and creep-fatigue life prediction of perforated cylinder subjected to cyclic thermal stress. Stress-strain behavior of perforated cylinder is analyzed by modeling the perforated portion to cylinder with equivalent-solid-plate properties. Creep-fatigue lives at around a hole of perforated plates are predicted by using the local stress-strain behavior and are compared with experimentally observed lives. (author)

  20. The Role of Life Satisfaction and Parenting Styles in Predicting Delinquent Behaviors among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onder, Fulya Cenkseven; Yilmaz, Yasin

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine whether the parenting styles and life satisfaction predict delinquent behaviors frequently or not. Firstly the data were collected from 471 girls and 410 boys, a total of 881 high school students. Then the research was carried out with 502 students showing low (n = 262, 52.2%) and high level of delinquent…

  1. The Roles of Life Satisfaction, Teaching Efficacy, and Self-Esteem in Predicting Teachers' Job Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çevik, Gülsen Büyüksahin

    2017-01-01

    The current research aims to find out the extent to which high school teachers' life satisfaction, teaching efficacy, and self-esteem predict their job satisfaction. Research participants included a total of 358 teachers (age = 38.82; Ss = 6.73; range, 22-58), 222 males (62%) and 136 females (38%), employed in 21 public high schools in the city…

  2. Numerical Analysis of Rolling Contact Fatigue Crack Initiation and Fatigue Life Prediction of the Railway Crossing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xin, L.; Markine, V.L.; Shevtsov, I.

    2015-01-01

    The procedure for analysing rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway turnout crossing is developed. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is used to obtain stress and strain results, considering the dynamic effects of wheel-crossing rolling contact.

  3. Fatigue life prediction in composites using progressive damage modelling under block and spectrum loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Passipoularidis, Vaggelis; Philippidis, T.P.; Brøndsted, Povl

    2010-01-01

    series can be simulated. The predictions are validated against fatigue life data both from repeated block tests at a single stress ratio as well as against spectral fatigue using the WISPER, WISPERX and NEW WISPER load sequences on a Glass/Epoxy multidirectional laminate typical of a Wind Turbine Rotor...

  4. Thermo-mechanical fatigue behaviour and life prediction of C-1023 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Mechanical strain-cycles to failure curves for 890-1055 ºC temperature range. ... could be ascribed to creep strain accumulation at high temperatures coinciding ... It is common in engineering applications to rely on life prediction models based ...

  5. The Level of Quality of Work Life to Predict Work Alienation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdem, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    The current research aims to determine the level of elementary school teachers' quality of work life (QWL) to predict work alienation. The study was designed using the relational survey model. The research population consisted of 1096 teachers employed at 25 elementary schools within the city of Van in the academic year 2010- 2011, and 346…

  6. Role of hyaluronic acid and laminin as serum markers for predicting significant fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Li

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of serum HA and LN as serum markers for predicting significant fibrosis in CHB patients. METHODS: Serum HA and LN levels of 87 patients with chronic hepatitis B and 19 blood donors were assayed by RIA. Liver fibrosis stages were determined according to the Metavir scoring-system. The diagnostic performances of all indexes were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. RESULTS: Serum HA and LN concentrations increased significantly with the stage of hepatic fibrosis, which showed positive correlation with the stages of liver fibrosis (HA: r = 0.875, p < 0.001; LN: r = 0.610, p < 0.001. There were significant differences of serum HA and LN levels between F2-4 group in comparison with those in F0-F1 group (p < 0.001 and controls (p < 0.001, respectively. From ROC curves, 185.3 ng/mL as the optimal cut-off value of serum HA for diagnosis of significant fibrosis, giving its sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, LR+, LR- and AC of 84.2%, 83.3%, 90.6%, 73.5%, 5.04, 0.19 and 83.9, respectively. While 132.7 ng/mL was the optimal cut-off value of serum LN, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, LR+, LR- and AC were 71.9%, 80.0%, 87.2%, 60.0%, 3.59%, 0.35% and 74.7, respectively. Combinations of HA and LN by serial tests showed a perfect specificity and PPV of 100%, at the same time sensitivity declined to 63.2% and LR+ increased to 18.9, while parallel tests revealed a good sensitivity of 94.7%, NPV to 86.4%, and LR- declined to 0.08. CONCLUSIONS: Serum HA and LN concentrations showed positive correlation with the stages of liver fibrosis. Detection of serum HA and LN in predicting significant fibrosis showed good diagnostic performance, which would be further optimized by combination of the two indices. HA and LN would be clinically useful serum markers for predicting significant fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B, when liver biopsy is

  7. Life prediction methodology for thermal-mechanical fatigue and elevated temperature creep design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annigeri, Ravindra

    Nickel-based superalloys are used for hot section components of gas turbine engines. Life prediction techniques are necessary to assess service damage in superalloy components resulting from thermal-mechanical fatigue (TMF) and elevated temperature creep. A new TMF life model based on continuum damage mechanics has been developed and applied to IN 738 LC substrate material with and without coating. The model also characterizes TMF failure in bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay and NiAl aluminide coatings. The inputs to the TMF life model are mechanical strain range, hold time, peak cycle temperatures and maximum stress measured from the stabilized or mid-life hysteresis loops. A viscoplastic model is used to predict the stress-strain hysteresis loops. A flow rule used in the viscoplastic model characterizes the inelastic strain rate as a function of the applied stress and a set of three internal stress variables known as back stress, drag stress and limit stress. Test results show that the viscoplastic model can reasonably predict time-dependent stress-strain response of the coated material and stress relaxation during hold times. In addition to the TMF life prediction methodology, a model has been developed to characterize the uniaxial and multiaxial creep behavior. An effective stress defined as the applied stress minus the back stress is used to characterize the creep recovery and primary creep behavior. The back stress has terms representing strain hardening, dynamic recovery and thermal recovery. Whenever the back stress is greater than the applied stress, the model predicts a negative creep rate observed during multiple stress and multiple temperature cyclic tests. The model also predicted the rupture time and the remaining life that are important for life assessment. The model has been applied to IN 738 LC, Mar-M247, bulk NiCoCrAlY overlay coating and 316 austenitic stainless steel. The proposed model predicts creep response with a reasonable accuracy for wide range of

  8. Life Prediction of Large Lithium-Ion Battery Packs with Active and Passive Balancing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Ying [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Smith, Kandler A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zane, Regan [Utah State University; Anderson, Dyche [Ford Motor Company

    2017-07-03

    Lithium-ion battery packs take a major part of large-scale stationary energy storage systems. One challenge in reducing battery pack cost is to reduce pack size without compromising pack service performance and lifespan. Prognostic life model can be a powerful tool to handle the state of health (SOH) estimate and enable active life balancing strategy to reduce cell imbalance and extend pack life. This work proposed a life model using both empirical and physical-based approaches. The life model described the compounding effect of different degradations on the entire cell with an empirical model. Then its lower-level submodels considered the complex physical links between testing statistics (state of charge level, C-rate level, duty cycles, etc.) and the degradation reaction rates with respect to specific aging mechanisms. The hybrid approach made the life model generic, robust and stable regardless of battery chemistry and application usage. The model was validated with a custom pack with both passive and active balancing systems implemented, which created four different aging paths in the pack. The life model successfully captured the aging trajectories of all four paths. The life model prediction errors on capacity fade and resistance growth were within +/-3% and +/-5% of the experiment measurements.

  9. Functional Independence in Late-Life: Maintaining Physical Functioning in Older Adulthood Predicts Daily Life Function after Age 80.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Leslie; Leng, Xiaoyan; La Monte, Michael J; Tindle, Hilary A; Cochrane, Barbara B; Shumaker, Sally A

    2016-03-01

    We examined physical functioning (PF) trajectories (maintaining, slowly declining, and rapidly declining) spanning 15 years in older women aged 65-80 and protective factors that predicted better current levels and less decline in functional independence outcomes after age 80. Women's Health Initiative extension participants who met criteria (enrolled in either the clinical trial or observational study cohort, >80 years at the data release cutoff, PF survey data from initial enrollment to age 80, and functional independence survey data after age 80) were included in these analyses (mean [SD] age = 84.0 [1.4] years; N = 10,478). PF was measured with the SF-36 (mean = 4.9 occasions). Functional independence was measured by self-reported level of dependence in basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADLs and IADLs) (mean = 3.4 and 3.3 occasions). Maintaining consistent PF in older adulthood extends functional independence in ADL and IADL in late-life. Protective factors shared by ADL and IADL include maintaining PF over time, self-reported excellent or very good health, no history of hip fracture after age 55, and no history of cardiovascular disease. Better IADL function is uniquely predicted by a body mass index less than 25 and no depression. Less ADL and IADL decline is predicted by better self-reported health, and less IADL decline is uniquely predicted by having no history of hip fracture after age 55. Maintaining or improving PF and preventing injury and disease in older adulthood (ages 65-80) has far-reaching implications for improving late-life (after age 80) functional independence. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Life-Space Predicts Health Care Utilization in Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Richard E; Williams, Courtney P; Sawyer, Patricia; Lo, Alexander X; Connelly, Kay; Nassel, Ariann; Brown, Cynthia J

    2017-09-01

    To determine whether decline in life-space mobility predicts increased health care utilization among community-dwelling older adults. Health care utilization (number of emergency department [ED] visits and hospitalizations) was self-reported during monthly interviews among 419 community-dwelling African American and non-Hispanic White adults aged 75 years and older in The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Study of Aging II. Life-space was measured using the UAB Life-Space Assessment. Generalized estimating equations were used to examine associations of life-space at the beginning of each interval with health care utilization over the 1-month interval. Overall, 400 participants were followed for 36 months. A 10-point decrease in life-space was associated with 14% increased odds of an ED visit and/or hospitalization over the next month, adjusting for demographics, transportation difficulty, comorbidity, and having a doctor visit in the last month. Life-space is a practical alternative in predicting future health care utilization to performance-based measures, which can be difficult to incorporate into clinical or public health practice.

  11. Distance saturation product predicts health-related quality of life among sarcoidosis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourbonnais, Julie M; Malaisamy, Subramanian; Dalal, Bhavinkumar D; Samarakoon, Priyan C; Parikh, Swapna R; Samavati, Lobelia

    2012-06-13

    Sarcoidosis is a chronic disease with different phenotypic manifestations. Health-related quality of life is an important aspect in sarcoidosis, yet difficult to measure. The objective of this study was to identify clinical markers predictive of poor quality of life in sarcoidosis patients that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention. We assessed the quality of life of 162 patients with confirmed sarcoidosis in a prospective, cross-sectional study using the Sarcoidosis Health Questionnaire (SHQ) and Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36). We evaluated the validity of these questionnaires and sought to identify variables that would best explain the performance scores of the patients. On multivariate regression analyses, the very best composite model to predict total scores from both surveys was a model containing the distance-saturation product and Borg Dyspnea Scale score at the end of a 6-min walk test. This model could better predict SF-36 scores (R² = 0.33) than SHQ scores (R² = 0.24). Substitution of distanced walked in 6 min for the distance-saturation product in this model resulted in a lesser ability to predict both scores (R² = 0.26 for SF-36; R² = 0.22 for SHQ). Both the SHQ and SF-36 surveys are valuable tools in the assessment of health-related quality of life in sarcoidosis patients. The best model to predict quality of life among these patients, as determined by regression analyses, included the distance-saturation product and Borg score after the 6-min walk test. Both variables represent easily obtainable clinical parameters that can be followed over time and targeted for intervention.

  12. Fatigue life prediction of Ni-base thermal solar receiver tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartrott, Philipp von; Schlesinger, Michael [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Uhlig, Ralf; Jedamski, Jens [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Stuttgart (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    Solar receivers for tower type Solar Thermal Power Plants are subjected to complex thermo-mechanical loads including fast and severe thermo-mechanical cycles. The material temperatures can reach more than 800 C and fall to room temperature very quickly. In order to predict the fatigue life of a receiver design, receiver tubes made of Alloy 625 with a wall thickness of 0.5 mm were tested in isothermal and thermo-cyclic experiments. The number of cycles to failure was in the range of 100 to 100,000. A thermo-mechanical fatigue life prediction model was set up. The model is based on the cyclic deformation of the material and the damage caused by the growth of fatigue micro cracks. The model reasonably predicts the experimental results. (orig.)

  13. Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westphal, T; Nijssen, R P L

    2014-01-01

    The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort

  14. Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westphal, T.; Nijssen, R. P. L.

    2014-12-01

    The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort.

  15. Study of prognostic significance of antenatal ultrasonography and renin angiotensin system activation in predicting disease severity in posterior urethral valves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Divya Bhadoo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: Study on prognostic significance of antenatal ultrasonography and renin angiotensin system activation in predicting disease severity in posterior urethral valves. Materials and Methods: Antenatally diagnosed hydronephrosis patients were included. Postnatally, they were divided into two groups, posterior urethral valve (PUV and non-PUV. The studied parameters were: Gestational age at detection, surgical intervention, ultrasound findings, cord blood and follow up plasma renin activity (PRA values, vesico-ureteric reflux (VUR, renal scars, and glomerular filtration rate (GFR. Results: A total of 25 patients were included, 10 PUV and 15 non-PUV. All infants with PUV underwent primary valve incision. GFR was less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 body surface area in 4 patients at last follow-up. Keyhole sign, oligoamnios, absent bladder cycling, and cortical cysts were not consistent findings on antenatal ultrasound in PUV. Cord blood PRA was significantly higher (P < 0.0001 in PUV compared to non-PUV patients. Gestational age at detection of hydronephrosis, cortical cysts, bladder wall thickness, and amniotic fluid index were not significantly correlated with GFR while PRA could differentiate between poor and better prognosis cases with PUV. Conclusions: Ultrasound was neither uniformly useful in diagnosing PUV antenatally, nor differentiating it from cases with non-PUV hydronephrosis. In congenital hydronephrosis, cord blood PRA was significantly higher in cases with PUV compared to non-PUV cases and fell significantly after valve ablation. Cord blood PRA could distinguish between poor and better prognosis cases with PUV.

  16. Significance of End-of-life Dreams and Visions Experienced by the Terminally Ill in Rural and Urban India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dam, Abhijit Kanti

    2016-01-01

    End-of-life dreams and visions (ELDVs) are not uncommon and are experienced by many near the time of death. These visions can occur months, weeks, days or hours before death. We wanted to document ELDVs, if any, in rural and urban settings in India, where talking about death is usually considered a taboo and also to compare its incidence with the urban population. Do terminally ill patients receiving home care in rural and urban India experience ELDVs? If yes, then an enquiry into the nature of such ELDVs. Prospective, cohort based, with a mixed-methods research design. 60 terminally ill patients with Palliative Performance Scale of 7 (on a VAS of 1-10), which corresponded to 'severe distress'. 94.7% (36) patients felt much better having discussed their ELDVs with the team. The results of our study suggest that ELDVs are not uncommon in India and the incidence does not differ significantly between rural and urban population. Our subjects found them to be distressing initially, but felt better after discussing it with our team. There was a direct correlation between severity of symptoms and occurrence and frequency of ELDVs. Another finding exclusive to our study was that the persons visualized in ELDVs did not threaten or scare the patient and the known persons visualized were seen as they were in their prime of health. We feel that addressing such 'issues' is of paramount importance with a view to providing holistic care. I feel that they strongly suggest the presence of life after death and when properly explained, can reinforce a sense of hope.

  17. The Role of Psychological Hardiness and Spiritual Health in Predict of Quality of Life in Students of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afsaneh Shahbazirad

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Nowadays, quality of life is one of the main phenomena in health, which is affected by different factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of psychological hardiness and spiritual health in predicting the quality of life among students. Materials and Methods: This descriptive-correlational study was conducted on 120 students of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Iran, during 2013-2014. Participants were selected by cluster sampling method. Data were collected using a demographic questionnaire, Ahvaz psychological hardiness questionnaire, spiritual health questionnaire of Paloutzian & Park and Quality of life questionnaire. Data were analyzed in SPSS 19 using Pearson’s correlation test and stepwise regression analysis. Results: There was a significant positive correlation between psychological hardiness and quality of life (P < 0.05. There was a significant positive correlation between spiritual health and quality of life (P < 0.05. However, there was no significant relationship between quality of life and spiritual health in the existential dimension; while, there was a significant relationship with religious dimension (P < 0.05. Psychological hardiness and spiritual health can predict 11.3 % of the variance in quality of life. Conclusions: Considering the relationship between the variables, it is better to provide training packages about the increase of spiritual health and psychological hardiness, in order to enhance the quality of life of university students.

  18. Prediction of the Service Life of a Reinforced Concrete Column under Chloride Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad K. Alkam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present investigation, service life of a reinforced concrete column exposed to chloride environment has been predicted. This study has been based on numerical simulation of chloride ion diffusion in a concrete column during its anticipated life span. The simulation process has included the concrete cover replacement whenever chloride ion concentration has reached the critical threshold value at the reinforcement surface. Repair scheduling of the concrete column under consideration has been discussed. Effects of the concrete cover thickness and the water cement ratio on the service life of the concrete column at hand have been presented. A new approach for arranging locations of reinforcement steel bars has been introduced. This approach is intended to prolong the service life of the concrete column under consideration against chloride induced corrosion.

  19. A new simplified allometric approach for predicting the biological half-life of radionuclides in reptiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beresford, N.A.; Wood, M.D.

    2014-01-01

    A major source of uncertainty in the estimation of radiation dose to wildlife is the prediction of internal radionuclide activity concentrations. Allometric (mass-dependent) relationships describing biological half-life (T 1/2b ) of radionuclides in organisms can be used to predict organism activity concentrations. The establishment of allometric expressions requires experimental data which are often lacking. An approach to predict the T 1/2b in homeothermic vertebrates has recently been proposed. In this paper we have adapted this to be applicable to reptiles. For Cs, Ra and Sr, over a mass range of 0.02–1.5 kg, resultant predictions were generally within a factor of 6 of reported values demonstrating that the approach can be used when measured T 1/2b data are lacking. However, the effect of mass on reptilian radionuclide T 1/2b is minimal. If sufficient measured data are available for a given radionuclide then it is likely that these would give a reasonable estimate of T 1/2b in any reptile species. - Highlights: • An allometric approach to predict radionuclide T 1/2b values in reptiles is derived. • Predictions are generally within a factor of six of measured values. • Radionuclide biological half-life is in-effect mass independent

  20. Lithium-ion battery remaining useful life prediction based on grey support vector machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaogang Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, an improved grey prediction model is proposed to address low-accuracy prediction issue of grey forecasting model. The first step is using a trigonometric function to transform the original data sequence to smooth the data, which is called smoothness of grey prediction model, and then a grey support vector machine model by integrating the improved grey model with support vector machine is introduced. At the initial stage of the model, trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation can be used to preprocess the data, which enhances the smoothness of the data and reduces the associated randomness. In addition, support vector machine is implemented to establish a prediction model for the pre-processed data and select the optimal model parameters via genetic algorithms. Finally, the data are restored through the ‘regressive generate’ operation to obtain the forecasting data. To prove that the grey support vector machine model is superior to the other models, the battery life data from the Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering are selected, and the presented model is used to predict the remaining useful life of the battery. The predicted result is compared to that of grey model and support vector machines. For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this article quantifies the root mean square errors for these three different models in the case of different ratio of training samples and prediction samples. The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine model is optimal, and the corresponding root mean square error is only 3.18%.

  1. Clinical significance of fibromyalgia syndrome in different rheumatic diseases: Relation to disease activity and quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Rabbat M, Sarah; Mahmoud, Nermeen K; Gheita, Tamer A

    2017-04-11

    To describe the frequencies of fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) in various rheumatic diseases; rheumatoid arthritis (RA), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), systemic sclerosis (SSc) and Behçets disease (BD) patients and to study the relation to clinical manifestations and quality of life (QoL). 160 patients (50 RA, 50 SLE, 30 SSc and 30 BD) and matched corresponding healthy controls were included. Disease activity was assessed using disease activity score in 28 joints (DAS28) for RA, SLE Disease Activity index (SLEDAI), modified Rodnan skin score for SSc and BD Current Activity Form (BDCAF). The QoL was also recorded. Severity in FMS cases was estimated using the revised Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire score. In the RA, SLE, SSc and BD patients, FMS was found in 14%, 18%, 6.67% and 3.33% respectively compared to 2.1%, 3%, 3.3% and 0% in their corresponding controls. In RA patients, DAS28 was significantly higher in those with FMS (p=0.009) and significantly correlated with both Widespread Pain Index (WPI) (p=0.011) and Symptom Severity (SS) scale (p=0.012). The QoL scale in those with FMS was significantly worse (62.3±7.9) compared to those without (71.7±14.4) (p=0.023). In SLE patients, The WPI and SS both significantly correlated with the presence of thrombosis (r=0.28, p=0.049 and r=0.43, p=0.002 respectively). The SS scale tended to correlate with the SLEDAI (r=0.28, p=0.05). In BD patients, BDCAF and WPI significantly correlated (p=0.03). Fibromyalgia syndrome is more frequent in rheumatic diseases, could be related to the disease activity in RA and BD patients and to thrombosis in SLE and affected the QoL in RA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

  2. Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

    2008-11-25

    A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

  3. Creep Rupture Life Prediction Based on Analysis of Large Creep Deformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YE Wenming

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A creep rupture life prediction method for high temperature component was proposed. The method was based on a true stress-strain elastoplastic creep constitutive model and the large deformation finite element analysis method. This method firstly used the high-temperature tensile stress-strain curve expressed by true stress and strain and the creep curve to build materials' elastoplastic and creep constitutive model respectively, then used the large deformation finite element method to calculate the deformation response of high temperature component under a given load curve, finally the creep rupture life was determined according to the change trend of the responsive curve.The method was verified by durable test of TC11 titanium alloy notched specimens under 500 ℃, and was compared with the three creep rupture life prediction methods based on the small deformation analysis. Results show that the proposed method can accurately predict the high temperature creep response and long-term life of TC11 notched specimens, and the accuracy is better than that of the methods based on the average effective stress of notch ligament, the bone point stress and the fracture strain of the key point, which are all based on small deformation finite element analysis.

  4. Measurement techniques and instruments suitable for life-prediction testing of photovoltaic arrays. Interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, G.T.; Sliemers, F.A.; Deringer, G.C.; Wood, V.E.; Wilkes, K.E.; Gaines, G.B.; Carmichael, D.C.

    1978-01-15

    The validation of a service life of 20 years for low-cost photovoltaic arrays must be accomplished through accelerated life-prediction tests. A methodology for such tests has been developed in a preceding study. The results discussed consist of the initial identification and assessment of all known measurement techniques and instruments that might be used in these life-prediction tests. Array failure modes, relevant materials property changes, and primary degradation mechanisms are discussed as a prerequisite to identifying suitable measurement techniques and instruments. Candidate techniques and instruments are identified on the basis of extensive reviews of published and unpublished information. These methods are organized in six measurement categories--chemical, electrical, optical, thermal, mechanical, and ''other physicals''. Using specified evaluation criteria, the most promising techniques and instruments for use in life-prediction tests of arrays are then selected. These recommended techniques and their characteristics are described. Recommendations are made regarding establishment of the adequacy, particularly with respect to precision, of the more fully developed techniques for this application, and regarding the experimental evaluation of promising developmental techniques. Measurement needs not satisfied by presently available techniques/instruments are also identified.

  5. Momentary affect predicts bodily movement in daily life: an ambulatory monitoring study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwerdtfeger, Andreas; Eberhardt, Ragna; Chmitorz, Andrea; Schaller, Eva

    2010-10-01

    There is converging evidence that physical activity influences affective states. It has been found that aerobic exercise programs can significantly diminish negative affect. Moreover, among healthy individuals, moderate levels of physical activity seem to increase energetic arousal and positive affect. However, the predictive utility of affective states for bodily movement has rarely been investigated. In this study, we examined whether momentarily assessed affect is associated with bodily movement in everyday life. Using a previously published data set (Schwerdtfeger, Eberhardt, & Chmitorz, 2008), we reanalyzed 12-hr ecological momentary assessment (EMA) data from 124 healthy volunteers. Electronic momentary positive-activated affect (EMA-PAA) and negative affect (EMA-NA) were assessed via handheld computers, and bodily movement was recorded via accelerosensors. Generalized linear mixed models were calculated. Results indicated that EMAPAA increases were accompanied by bodily movement increases of varying intensity. EMA-NA was also positively associated with increases in certain kinds of bodily movement. In light of previous research, this finding suggests that affect and bodily movement may have circular effects on each other.

  6. Prediction of inelastic behavior and creep-fatigue life of perforated plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Yamauchi, Masafumi; Nomura, Shinichi.

    1992-01-01

    Prediction methods of macroscopic and local stress-strain behaviors of perforated plates in plastic and creep regime are proposed in this paper, and are applied to the creep-fatigue life prediction of perforated plates. Both equivalent-solid-plate properties corresponding to the macroscopic behavior and the stress-strain concentration around a hole were obtained by assuming the analogy between plasticity and creep and also by extending the authors' proposal in creep condition. The perforated plates which were made of Hastelloy XR were subjected to the strain-controlled cyclic test at 950degC in air in order to experimentally obtain the macroscopic behavior such as the cyclic stress-strain curve and creep-fatigue life around a hole. The results obtained are summarized as follows. (1) The macroscopic behavior of perforated plates including cyclic stress-strain behavior and relaxation is predictable by using the proposed method in this paper. (2) The creep-fatigue life around a hole can be predicted by using the proposed method for stress-strain concentration around a hole. (author)

  7. Pretreatment factors significantly influence quality of life in cancer patients: A Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Movsas, Benjamin; Scott, Charles; Watkins-Bruner, Deborah

    2006-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this analysis was to assess the impact of pretreatment factors on quality of life (QOL) in cancer patients. Methods and Materials Pretreatment QOL (via Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy [FACT], version 2) was obtained in 1,428 patients in several prospective Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) trials including nonmetastatic head-and-neck (n = 1139), esophageal (n = 174), lung (n = 51), rectal (n = 47), and prostate (n = 17) cancer patients. Clinically meaningful differences between groups were defined as a difference of 1 standard error of measurement (SEM). Results The mean FACT score for all patients was 86 (20.7-112) with SEM of 5.3. Statistically significant differences in QOL were observed based on age, race, Karnofsky Performance Status, marital status, education level, income level, and employment status, but not by gender or primary site. Using the SEM, there were clinically meaningful differences between patients ≤50 years vs. ≥65 years. Hispanics had worse QOL than whites. FACT increased linearly with higher Karnofsky Performance Status and income levels. Married patients (or live-in relationships) had a better QOL than single, divorced, or widowed patients. College graduates had better QOL than those with less education. Conclusion Most pretreatment factors meaningfully influenced baseline QOL. The potentially devastating impact of a cancer diagnosis, particularly in young and minority patients, must be addressed

  8. Does life satisfaction predict five-year mortality in community-living older adults?

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Mackenzie, Corey; Menec, Verena

    2015-01-01

    Depression and depressive symptoms predict death, but it is less clear if more general measures of life satisfaction (LS) predict death. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if LS predicts mortality over a five-year period in community-living older adults; and (2) which aspects of LS predict death. 1751 adults over the age of 65 who were living in the community were sampled from a representative population sampling frame in 1991/1992 and followed five years later. Age, gender, and education were self-reported. An index of multimorbidity and the Older American Resource Survey measured health and functional status, and the Terrible-Delightful Scale assessed overall LS as well as satisfaction with: health, finances, family, friends, housing, recreation, self-esteem, religion, and transportation. Cox proportional hazards models examined the influence of LS on time to death. 417 participants died during the five-year study period. Overall LS and all aspects of LS except finances, religion, and self-esteem predicted death in unadjusted analyses. In fully adjusted analyses, LS with health, housing, and recreation predicted death. Other aspects of LS did not predict death after accounting for functional status and multimorbidity. LS predicted death, but certain aspects of LS are more strongly associated with death. The effect of LS is complex and may be mediated or confounded by health and functional status. It is important to consider different domains of LS when considering the impact of this important emotional indicator on mortality among older adults.

  9. A new crack growth model for life prediction under random loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ouk Sub; Chen, Zhi Wei

    1999-01-01

    The load interaction effect in variable amplitude fatigue test is a very important issue for correctly predicting fatigue life. Some prediction methods for retardation are reviewed and the problems discussed. The so-called 'under-load' effect is also of importance for a prediction model to work properly under random load spectrum. A new model that is simple in form but combines overload plastic zone and residual stress considerations together with Elber's closure concept is proposed to fully take account of the load-interaction effects including both over-load and under-load effects. Applying this new model to complex load sequence is explored here. Simulations of tests show the improvement of the new model over other models. The best prediction (mostly closely resembling test curve) is given by the newly proposed Chen-Lee model

  10. Residual Stress Estimation and Fatigue Life Prediction of an Autofrettaged Pressure Vessel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Kyung Jin; Kim, Eun Kyum; Koh, Seung Kee [Kunsan Nat’l Univ., Kunsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-09-15

    Fatigue failure of an autofrettaged pressure vessel with a groove at the outside surface occurs owing to the fatigue crack initiation and propagation at the groove root. In order to predict the fatigue life of the autofrettaged pressure vessel, residual stresses in the autofrettaged pressure vessel were evaluated using the finite element method, and the fatigue properties of the pressure vessel steel were obtained from the fatigue tests. Fatigue life of a pressure vessel obtained through summation of the crack initiation and propagation lives was calculated to be 2,598 cycles for an 80% autofrettaged pressure vessel subjected to a pulsating internal pressure of 424 MPa.

  11. Contribution to life-time predictions of gas turbine components under cyclic load

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoelscher, R.

    1982-02-15

    The low cycle fatique life of gas turbine components is analysed using the turbine blade of the ATAR 101 F jet engine turbine as example. The results show that, among other things thermal stresses during start-up and shut-off cause considerable damage to the material. Tests using a model rig showed that damage caused by material creep and LCF-mechanisms stongly depended on cyclic parameters such as temperature, temperature development, and power etc. Two long-term tests confirm that the Manson model can be used to give a reasonable prediction of turbine blade life.

  12. 77 FR 52783 - Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: “Rudolf Nureyev: A Life in...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    ... Determinations: ``Rudolf Nureyev: A Life in Dance'' SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given of the following... ``Rudolf Nureyev: A Life in Dance'' imported from abroad for temporary exhibition within the United States... Arts Museums of San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, from on or about October 6, 2012, until on or about...

  13. Towards an improved prediction of the free radical scavenging potency of flavonoids: the significance of double PCET mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amić, Ana; Marković, Zoran; Dimitrić Marković, Jasmina M; Stepanić, Višnja; Lučić, Bono; Amić, Dragan

    2014-01-01

    The 1H(+)/1e(-) and 2H(+)/2e(-) proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) processes of free radical scavenging by flavonoids were theoretically studied for aqueous and lipid environments using the PM6 and PM7 methods. The results reported here indicate that the significant contribution of the second PCET mechanism, resulting in the formation of a quinone/quinone methide, effectively discriminates the active from inactive flavonoids. The predictive potency of descriptors related to the energetics of second PCET mechanisms (the second O-H bond dissociation enthalpy (BDE2) related to hydrogen atom transfer (HAT) mechanism, and the second electron transfer enthalpy (ETE2) related to sequential proton loss electron transfer (SPLET) mechanism) are superior to the currently used indices, which are related to the first 1H(+)/1e(-) processes, and could serve as primary descriptors in development of the QSAR (quantitative structure-activity relationships) of flavonoids. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Significance of uncertainties derived from settling tank model structure and parameters on predicting WWTP performance - A global sensitivity analysis study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty derived from one of the process models – such as one-dimensional secondary settling tank (SST) models – can impact the output of the other process models, e.g., biokinetic (ASM1), as well as the integrated wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) models. The model structure and parameter...... and from the last aerobic bioreactor upstream to the SST (Garrett/hydraulic method). For model structure uncertainty, two one-dimensional secondary settling tank (1-D SST) models are assessed, including a first-order model (the widely used Takács-model), in which the feasibility of using measured...... uncertainty of settler models can therefore propagate, and add to the uncertainties in prediction of any plant performance criteria. Here we present an assessment of the relative significance of secondary settling model performance in WWTP simulations. We perform a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) based...

  15. Wealth and happiness across the world: material prosperity predicts life evaluation, whereas psychosocial prosperity predicts positive feeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diener, Ed; Ng, Weiting; Harter, James; Arora, Raksha

    2010-07-01

    The Gallup World Poll, the first representative sample of planet Earth, was used to explore the reasons why happiness is associated with higher income, including the meeting of basic needs, fulfillment of psychological needs, increasing satisfaction with one's standard of living, and public goods. Across the globe, the association of log income with subjective well-being was linear but convex with raw income, indicating the declining marginal effects of income on subjective well-being. Income was a moderately strong predictor of life evaluation but a much weaker predictor of positive and negative feelings. Possessing luxury conveniences and satisfaction with standard of living were also strong predictors of life evaluation. Although the meeting of basic and psychological needs mediated the effects of income on life evaluation to some degree, the strongest mediation was provided by standard of living and ownership of conveniences. In contrast, feelings were most associated with the fulfillment of psychological needs: learning, autonomy, using one's skills, respect, and the ability to count on others in an emergency. Thus, two separate types of prosperity-economic and social psychological-best predict different types of well-being.

  16. Predictive significance of standardized uptake value parameters of FDG-PET in patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan, X-Y.; Wang, W.; Li, M.; Li, Y.; Guo, Y-M. [PET-CT Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi' an, Jiaotong University, Xi' an, Shaanxi (China)

    2015-02-03

    {sup 18}F-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) is widely used to diagnose and stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the predictive ability of different FDG standardized uptake values (SUVs) in 74 patients with newly diagnosed NSCLC. {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT scans were performed and different SUV parameters (SUV{sub max}, SUV{sub avg}, SUV{sub T/L}, and SUV{sub T/A}) obtained, and their relationship with clinical characteristics were investigated. Meanwhile, correlation and multiple stepwise regression analyses were performed to determine the primary predictor of SUVs for NSCLC. Age, gender, and tumor size significantly affected SUV parameters. The mean SUVs of squamous cell carcinoma were higher than those of adenocarcinoma. Poorly differentiated tumors exhibited higher SUVs than well-differentiated ones. Further analyses based on the pathologic type revealed that the SUV{sub max}, SUV{sub avg}, and SUV{sub T/L} of poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma tumors were higher than those of moderately or well-differentiated tumors. Among these four SUV parameters, SUV{sub T/L} was the primary predictor for tumor differentiation. However, in adenocarcinoma, SUV{sub max} was the determining factor for tumor differentiation. Our results showed that these four SUV parameters had predictive significance related to NSCLC tumor differentiation; SUV{sub T/L} appeared to be most useful overall, but SUV{sub max} was the best index for adenocarcinoma tumor differentiation.

  17. Prediction of expected years of life using whole-genome markers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo de los Campos

    Full Text Available Genetic factors are believed to account for 25% of the interindividual differences in Years of Life (YL among humans. However, the genetic loci that have thus far been found to be associated with YL explain a very small proportion of the expected genetic variation in this trait, perhaps reflecting the complexity of the trait and the limitations of traditional association studies when applied to traits affected by a large number of small-effect genes. Using data from the Framingham Heart Study and statistical methods borrowed largely from the field of animal genetics (whole-genome prediction, WGP, we developed a WGP model for the study of YL and evaluated the extent to which thousands of genetic variants across the genome examined simultaneously can be used to predict interindividual differences in YL. We find that a sizable proportion of differences in YL--which were unexplained by age at entry, sex, smoking and BMI--can be accounted for and predicted using WGP methods. The contribution of genomic information to prediction accuracy was even higher than that of smoking and body mass index (BMI combined; two predictors that are considered among the most important life-shortening factors. We evaluated the impacts of familial relationships and population structure (as described by the first two marker-derived principal components and concluded that in our dataset population structure explained partially, but not fully the gains in prediction accuracy obtained with WGP. Further inspection of prediction accuracies by age at death indicated that most of the gains in predictive ability achieved with WGP were due to the increased accuracy of prediction of early mortality, perhaps reflecting the ability of WGP to capture differences in genetic risk to deadly diseases such as cancer, which are most often responsible for early mortality in our sample.

  18. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E. [Allison Engine Co., Indianapolis, IN (United States)

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  19. Probabilistic fatigue life prediction methodology for notched components based on simple smooth fatigue tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Z. R.; Li, Z. X. [Dept.of Engineering Mechanics, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Engineering Mechanics, Southeast University, Nanjing (China); Hu, X. T.; Xin, P. P.; Song, Y. D. [State Key Laboratory of Mechanics and Control of Mechanical Structures, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing (China)

    2017-01-15

    The methodology of probabilistic fatigue life prediction for notched components based on smooth specimens is presented. Weakestlink theory incorporating Walker strain model has been utilized in this approach. The effects of stress ratio and stress gradient have been considered. Weibull distribution and median rank estimator are used to describe fatigue statistics. Fatigue tests under different stress ratios were conducted on smooth and notched specimens of titanium alloy TC-1-1. The proposed procedures were checked against the test data of TC-1-1 notched specimens. Prediction results of 50 % survival rate are all within a factor of two scatter band of the test results.

  20. Imagining life with an ostomy: Does a video intervention improve quality-of-life predictions for a medical condition that may elicit disgust?☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angott, Andrea M.; Comerford, David A.; Ubel, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To test a video intervention as a way to improve predictions of mood and quality-of-life with an emotionally evocative medical condition. Such predictions are typically inaccurate, which can be consequential for decision making. Method In Part 1, people presently or formerly living with ostomies predicted how watching a video depicting a person changing his ostomy pouch would affect mood and quality-of-life forecasts for life with an ostomy. In Part 2, participants from the general public read a description about life with an ostomy; half also watched a video depicting a person changing his ostomy pouch. Participants’ quality-of-life and mood forecasts for life with an ostomy were assessed. Results Contrary to our expectations, and the expectations of people presently or formerly living with ostomies, the video did not reduce mood or quality-of-life estimates, even among participants high in trait disgust sensitivity. Among low-disgust participants, watching the video increased quality-of-life predictions for ostomy. Conclusion Video interventions may improve mood and quality-of-life forecasts for medical conditions, including those that may elicit disgust, such as ostomy. Practice implications Video interventions focusing on patients’ experience of illness continue to show promise as components of decision aids, even for emotionally charged health states such as ostomy. PMID:23177398

  1. Exposure to stressful life events during pregnancy predicts psychotic experiences via behaviour problems in childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Kim S; Williams, Gail M; Najman, Jakob M; Scott, James; Alati, Rosa

    2014-12-01

    Exposure to stressful life events during pregnancy has been associated with later schizophrenia in offspring. We explore how prenatal stress and neurodevelopmental abnormalities in childhood associate to increase the risk of later psychotic experiences. Participants from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), an Australian based, pre-birth cohort study were examined for lifetime DSM-IV positive psychotic experiences at 21 years by a semi-structured interview (n = 2227). Structural equation modelling suggested psychotic experiences were best represented with a bifactor model including a general psychosis factor and two group factors. We tested for an association between prenatal stressful life events with the psychotic experiences, and examined for potential moderation and mediation by behaviour problems and cognitive ability in childhood. Prenatal stressful life events predicted psychotic experiences indirectly via behaviour problems at child age five years, and this relationship was not confounded by maternal stressful life events at child age five. We found no statistical evidence for an interaction between prenatal stressful life events and behaviour problems or cognitive ability. The measurable effect of prenatal stressful life events on later psychotic experiences in offspring manifested as behaviour problems by age 5. By identifying early abnormal behavioural development as an intermediary, this finding further confirms the role of prenatal stress to later psychotic disorders. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Gaussian Processes Mixture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lingling; Wang, Pengchong; Chao, Kuei-Hsiang; Zhou, Yatong; Xie, Yang

    2016-01-01

    The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Lithium-ion batteries is closely related to the capacity degeneration trajectories. Due to the self-charging and the capacity regeneration, the trajectories have the property of multimodality. Traditional prediction models such as the support vector machines (SVM) or the Gaussian Process regression (GPR) cannot accurately characterize this multimodality. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction method based on the Gaussian Process Mixture (GPM). It can process multimodality by fitting different segments of trajectories with different GPR models separately, such that the tiny differences among these segments can be revealed. The method is demonstrated to be effective for prediction by the excellent predictive result of the experiments on the two commercial and chargeable Type 1850 Lithium-ion batteries, provided by NASA. The performance comparison among the models illustrates that the GPM is more accurate than the SVM and the GPR. In addition, GPM can yield the predictive confidence interval, which makes the prediction more reliable than that of traditional models. PMID:27632176

  3. Anisotropic Elastoplastic Damage Mechanics Method to Predict Fatigue Life of the Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualiang Wan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available New damage mechanics method is proposed to predict the low-cycle fatigue life of metallic structures under multiaxial loading. The microstructure mechanical model is proposed to simulate anisotropic elastoplastic damage evolution. As the micromodel depends on few material parameters, the present method is very concise and suitable for engineering application. The material parameters in damage evolution equation are determined by fatigue experimental data of standard specimens. By employing further development on the ANSYS platform, the anisotropic elastoplastic damage mechanics-finite element method is developed. The fatigue crack propagation life of satellite structure is predicted using the present method and the computational results comply with the experimental data very well.

  4. Basic traits predict the prevalence of personality disorder across the life span: the example of psychopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, David D; Lynam, Donald R; Widiger, Thomas A; Miller, Joshua D; McCrae, Robert R; Costa, Paul T

    2013-05-01

    Personality disorders (PDs) may be better understood in terms of dimensions of general personality functioning rather than as discrete categorical conditions. Personality-trait descriptions of PDs are robust across methods and settings, and PD assessments based on trait measures show good construct validity. The study reported here extends research showing that basic traits (e.g., impulsiveness, warmth, straightforwardness, modesty, and deliberation) can re-create the epidemiological characteristics associated with PDs. Specifically, we used normative changes in absolute trait levels to simulate age-related differences in the prevalence of psychopathy in a forensic setting. Results demonstrated that trait information predicts the rate of decline for psychopathy over the life span; discriminates the decline of psychopathy from that of a similar disorder, antisocial PD; and accurately predicts the differential decline of subfactors of psychopathy. These findings suggest that basic traits provide a parsimonious account of PD prevalence across the life span.

  5. The construction of life prediction models for the design of Stirling engine heater components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrovich, A.; Bright, A.; Cronin, M.; Arnold, S.

    1983-01-01

    The service life of Stirling-engine heater structures of Fe-based high-temperature alloys is predicted using a numerical model based on a linear-damage approach and published test data (engine test data for a Co-based alloy and tensile-test results for both the Co-based and the Fe-based alloys). The operating principle of the automotive Stirling engine is reviewed; the economic and technical factors affecting the choice of heater material are surveyed; the test results are summarized in tables and graphs; the engine environment and automotive duty cycle are characterized; and the modeling procedure is explained. It is found that the statistical scatter of the fatigue properties of the heater components needs to be reduced (by decreasing the porosity of the cast material or employing wrought material in fatigue-prone locations) before the accuracy of life predictions can be improved.

  6. Reliability residual-life prediction method for thermal aging based on performance degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Shuhong; Xue Fei; Yu Weiwei; Ti Wenxin; Liu Xiaotian

    2013-01-01

    The paper makes the study of the nuclear power plant main pipeline. The residual-life of the main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging has been studied by the use of performance degradation theory and Bayesian updating methods. Firstly, the thermal aging impact property degradation process of the main pipeline austenitic stainless steel has been analyzed by the accelerated thermal aging test data. Then, the thermal aging residual-life prediction model based on the impact property degradation data is built by Bayesian updating methods. Finally, these models are applied in practical situations. It is shown that the proposed methods are feasible and the prediction accuracy meets the needs of the project. Also, it provides a foundation for the scientific management of aging management of the main pipeline. (authors)

  7. New considerations on variability of creep rupture data and life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seon Jin; Jeong, Won Taek; Kong, Yu Sik

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the variability analysis of short term creep rupture test data based on the previous creep rupture tests and the possibility of the creep life prediction. From creep tests performed by constant uniaxial stresses at 600, 650 and 700 .deg. C elevated temperature, in order to investigate the variability of short-term creep rupture data, the creep curves were analyzed for normalized creep strain divided by initial strain. There are some variability in thee creep rupture data. And, the difference between general creep curves and normalized creep curves were obtained. The effects of the creep rupture time and state steady creep rate on the Weibull distribution parameters were investigated. There were good relation between normal Weibull parameters and normalized Weibull parameters. Finally, the predicted creep life were compared with the Monkman-Grant model.

  8. New Considerations on Variability of Creep Rupture Data and Life Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Won Taek; Kong, Yu Sik; Kim, Seon Jin

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the variability analysis of short term creep rupture test data based on the previous creep rupture tests and the possibility of the creep life prediction. From creep tests performed by constant uniaxial stresses at 600, 650 and 700 .deg. C elevated temperature, in order to investigate the variability of short-term creep rupture data, the creep curves were analyzed for normalized creep strain divided by initial strain. There are some variability in the creep rupture data. And, the difference between general creep curves and normalized creep curves were obtained. The effects of the creep rupture time (RT) and steady state creep rate (SSCR) on the Weibull distribution parameters were investigated. There were good relation between normal Weibull parameters and normalized Weibull parameters. Finally, the predicted creep life were compared with the Monkman-Grant model

  9. Predictive Risk Factors for Impaired Quality of Life in Middle-Aged Women with Urinary Incontinence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youn-Jung Son

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose Urinary incontinence (UI has substantial and important impacts on quality of life (QoL. The purpose of this study was to identify the associated risk factors of QoL in middle-aged women with UI. Methods The participants were 127 women aged 40-64 years who experienced UI. Data were collected from October to November, 2008 using a self-reported questionnaires. The data were analyzed through t-test, one-way ANOVA, Scheffe test, and multiple linear regression with SPSS ver. 16.0 program. Results The distribution of UI severity was mild 18.1%, moderate 40.2% and severe 41.7%. In univariate analysis, differences in the score for QoL according to participants' characteristics were statistically significant on the type of delivery, number of births and severity of UI. In multiple linear regression analysis after adjustment of other variables, the most powerful predictor of QoL is severity of UI. Number of births was also significant predictor. These two variables explained 25% of variance in QoL of women with UI. Conclusions UI is highly prevalent and causes suffering and impaired QoL among middle-aged women, but it stands beyond our attention. The results of this study suggest that women with moderate to severe UI should be screened for QoL by health care providers regularly. Further research is needed to determine comprehensive factors including psychosocial factors predicting the QoL for incontinent women.

  10. Emotional outlook on life predicts increases in physical activity among initially inactive men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruth, Meghan; Lee, Duck-Chul; Sui, Xuemei; Church, Timothy S; Marcus, Bess H; Wilcox, Sara; Blair, Steven N

    2011-04-01

    This study examined the relationship between emotional outlook on life and change in physical activity among inactive adults in the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study. A total of 2,132 sedentary adults completed a baseline medical examination and returned for a follow-up examination at least 6 months later. Participants self-reported physical activity level and emotional outlook on life. Emotional outlook on life was significantly and positively related to physical activity participation at the follow-up visit in men but not women. Men who were usually very happy and optimistic at baseline had significantly greater increases in physical activity compared to men who were not happy. Men with a more positive outlook on life (e.g., happier) may be more likely to increase physical activity levels. Physical activity interventions targeting men may be more successful if they first increase happiness.

  11. Self-Concept Clarity and Religious Orientations: Prediction of Purpose in Life and Self-Esteem

    OpenAIRE

    Błażek, Magdalena; Besta, Tomasz

    2010-01-01

    The present study concerns the relationship between self-concept clarity, religiosity, and well-being, as well as the mediating influence of religiosity on the relationship between self-concept clarity and sense of meaning in life and self-esteem. Self-concept clarity was found to be a significant predictor of sense of meaning in life and self-esteem; intrinsic religious orientation was found to be a predictor of sense of meaning in life, while the quest religious orientation was a predictor ...

  12. Numerical analysis of rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway crossing

    OpenAIRE

    Xin, L.; Markine, V.L.; Shevtsov, I.

    2015-01-01

    The procedure for analysing rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway turnout crossing is developed. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is used to obtain stress and strain results, considering the dynamic effects of wheel-crossing rolling contact. Material model accounting for elastic- plastic isotropic and kinematic hardening effects is adopted. The results from FE analysis are combined with J-S fatigue model that is based on critical plan...

  13. Long-term Creep Life Prediction for Type 316LN Stainless Steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Ryu, Woo Seog; Kim, Sung Ho; Lee, Chan Bok

    2007-01-01

    Since Sodium Fast Cooled Reactor (SFR) components are designed to be use for more than 30 years at a high temperature of 550 .deg. C, one of the most important properties of these components is the long term creep behavior. To accurately predict the long-term creep life of the components, it is essential to achieve reliable long-term test data beyond their design life. But, it is difficult to actually obtain long duration data because it is time-consuming work. So far, a variety of time-temperature parameters (TTPs) have been developed to predict a long-term creep life from shorter-time tests at higher temperatures. Among them, the Larson-Miller, the Orr-Sherby-Dorn, the Manson-Harferd and the Manson-Succop parameters have been typically used. None of these parameters has an overwhelming preference, and they have certain inherent restrictions imposed on their data in the application of the TTPs parameters. Meanwhile, it has been reported that the Minimum Commitment Method (MCM) proposed by Manson and Ensign has a greater flexibility for a creep rupture analysis. Thus, the MCM will be useful as another approach. Until now, the applicability of the MCM has not been investigated for type 316LN SS because of insufficient creep data. In this paper, the MCM was applied to predict a long-term creep life of type 316LN stainless steel (SS). Lots of creep rupture data was collected through literature surveys and the experimental data of KAERI. Using the short-term experimental data for under 2,000 hours, a longer-time rupture above 105 hours was predicted by the MCM at temperatures from 550 .deg. C to 800 .deg. C

  14. An Extrapolation of a Radical Equation More Accurately Predicts Shelf Life of Frozen Biological Matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vore, Karl W; Fatahi, Nadia M; Sass, John E

    2016-08-01

    Arrhenius modeling of analyte recovery at increased temperatures to predict long-term colder storage stability of biological raw materials, reagents, calibrators, and controls is standard practice in the diagnostics industry. Predicting subzero temperature stability using the same practice is frequently criticized but nevertheless heavily relied upon. We compared the ability to predict analyte recovery during frozen storage using 3 separate strategies: traditional accelerated studies with Arrhenius modeling, and extrapolation of recovery at 20% of shelf life using either ordinary least squares or a radical equation y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Computer simulations were performed to establish equivalence of statistical power to discern the expected changes during frozen storage or accelerated stress. This was followed by actual predictive and follow-up confirmatory testing of 12 chemistry and immunoassay analytes. Linear extrapolations tended to be the most conservative in the predicted percent recovery, reducing customer and patient risk. However, the majority of analytes followed a rate of change that slowed over time, which was fit best to a radical equation of the form y = B1x(0.5) + B0. Other evidence strongly suggested that the slowing of the rate was not due to higher-order kinetics, but to changes in the matrix during storage. Predicting shelf life of frozen products through extrapolation of early initial real-time storage analyte recovery should be considered the most accurate method. Although in this study the time required for a prediction was longer than a typical accelerated testing protocol, there are less potential sources of error, reduced costs, and a lower expenditure of resources. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  15. Fatigue Life Analysis and Prediction of 316L Stainless Steel Under Low Cycle Fatigue Loading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Hyeong; Myung, NohJun; Choi, Nak-Sam [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    In this study, a strain-controlled fatigue test of widely-used 316L stainless steel with excellent corrosion resistance and mechanical properties was conducted, in order to assess its fatigue life. Low cycle fatigue behaviors were analyzed at room temperature, as a function of the strain amplitude and strain ratio. The material was hardened during the initial few cycles, and then was softened during the long post period, until failure occurred. The fatigue life decreased with increasing strain amplitude. Masing behavior in the hysteresis loop was shown under the low strain amplitude, whereas the high strain amplitude caused non-Masing behavior and reduced the mean stress. Low cycle fatigue life prediction based on the cyclic plastic energy dissipation theory, considering Masing and non-Masing effects, showed a good correlation with the experimental results.

  16. Prediction of fatigue life under service loading using the relative method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buch, A.

    1982-01-01

    Fatigue life estimates obtained with the local strain approach (LSA) and with the conventional nominal stress approach (NSA) were compared with experimental results obtained on notched AlCuMg2 aircraft material specimens with flight simulation random tensile loading. The effect of change of the reference stress, of the loading program and of some changes in the loading frequency distribution, on the ratio Nsub(exp)/Nsub(pred) was investigated. A material strain-life curve, a cyclic stress-strain curve. The Neuber-Topper rule Ksub(sigma) x Ksub(epsilon) = K 2 = const. and a K value estimated with an exact two-parameter notch factor formula for the case R = 0, N = 10 7 were used for life predictions. (orig./RW) [de

  17. Predicting the creep life and failure mode of low-alloy steel weldments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J.M.; Middleton, C.J.; Aplin, P.F. [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom)

    1998-12-31

    This presentation reviews and consolidates experience gained through a number of research projects and practical plant assessments in predicting both the life and the likely failure mode and location in low alloy steel weldments. The approach adopted begins with the recognition that the relative strength difference between the microstructural regions is a key factor controlling both life and failure location. Practical methods based on hardness measurement and adaptable to differing weld geometries are presented and evidence for correlations between hardness ratio, damage accumulation and strain development is discussed. Predictor diagrams relating weld life and failure location to the service conditions and the hardness of the individual microstructural constituents are suggested and comments are given on the implications for identifying the circumstances in which Type IV cracking is to be expected. (orig.) 6 refs.

  18. [A predictive model for the quality of sexual life in hysterectomized women].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrutia, María Teresa; Araya, Alejandra; Rivera, Soledad; Viviani, Paola; Villarroel, Luis

    2007-03-01

    The effects of hysterectomy on sexuality has been extensively studied. To establish a model to predict the quality of sexual life in hysterectomized women, six months after surgery. Analytical, longitudinal and prospective study of 90 hysterectomized women aged 45+/-7 years. Two structured interviews at the time of surgery and six months later were carried out to determine the characteristics of sexuality and communication within the couple. In the two interviews, communication and the quality of sexual life were described as "good" in 72 and 77% of women, respectively (NS). The variables that had a 40% influence on the quality of sexual life sixth months after surgery, were oophorectomy status, the presence of orgasm, the characteristics of communication and the basal sexuality with the couple. The sexuality of the hysterectomized women will depend, on a great extent, of pre-surgical variables. Therefore, it is important to consider these variables for the education of hysterectomized women.

  19. Predicting the creep life and failure mode of low-alloy steel weldments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brear, J M; Middleton, C J; Aplin, P F [ERA Technology Ltd., Leatherhead (United Kingdom)

    1999-12-31

    This presentation reviews and consolidates experience gained through a number of research projects and practical plant assessments in predicting both the life and the likely failure mode and location in low alloy steel weldments. The approach adopted begins with the recognition that the relative strength difference between the microstructural regions is a key factor controlling both life and failure location. Practical methods based on hardness measurement and adaptable to differing weld geometries are presented and evidence for correlations between hardness ratio, damage accumulation and strain development is discussed. Predictor diagrams relating weld life and failure location to the service conditions and the hardness of the individual microstructural constituents are suggested and comments are given on the implications for identifying the circumstances in which Type IV cracking is to be expected. (orig.) 6 refs.

  20. Assessment and propagation of mechanical property uncertainties in fatigue life prediction of composite laminates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castro, Oscar; Branner, Kim; Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

    2018-01-01

    amplitude loading cycles. Fatigue life predictions of unidirectional and multi-directional glass/epoxy laminates are carried out to validate the proposed model against experimental data. The probabilistic fatigue behavior of laminates is analyzed under constant amplitude loading conditions as well as under......A probabilistic model for estimating the fatigue life of laminated composite materials considering the uncertainty in their mechanical properties is developed. The uncertainty in the material properties is determined from fatigue coupon tests. Based on this uncertainty, probabilistic constant life...... diagrams are developed which can efficiently estimate probabilistic É›-N curves at any load level and stress ratio. The probabilistic É›-N curve information is used in a reliability analysis for fatigue limit state proposed for estimating the probability of failure of composite laminates under variable...

  1. Risk based service life prediction of underground cast iron pipes subjected to corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.Q.; Mahmoodian, M.

    2013-01-01

    Aging and deterioration of underground cast iron pipes is inevitable after their long time in service, with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism for pipe failures. Although considerable research has been undertaken in the past few decades, more is on the effects of corrosion on structural capacity of pipes than that on the prediction of their service life. This paper presents a methodology to quantitatively assess the risk of pipe collapse and predict its remaining service life using a time-dependent reliability theory. The concept of stress intensity in fracture mechanics is employed to establish the failure criterion of pipe collapse. An empirical model is derived for maximum pit growth of corrosion from the available data based on mathematical regressions. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method. It is found in the paper that the risk of pipe collapse increases with an increase in the diameter of the pipe for both external and internal corrosion. It is also found that the tougher the pipe is, the smaller the risk of its collapse. The paper concludes that a time-dependent reliability method is a very useful tool to predict the risk of pipe collapse and its remaining service life. The proposed method can help the water industry develop rehabilitation or replacement strategy for existing pipe networks with a view for better management of the pipe asset

  2. Factors predicting quality of work life among nurses in tertiary-level hospitals, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akter, N; Akkadechanunt, T; Chontawan, R; Klunklin, A

    2018-06-01

    This study examined the level of quality of work life and predictability of years of education, monthly income, years of experience, job stress, organizational commitment and work environment on quality of work life among nurses in tertiary-level hospitals in the People's Republic of Bangladesh. There is an acute shortage of nurses worldwide including Bangladesh. Quality of work life is important for quality of patient care and nurse retention. Nurses in Bangladesh are fighting to provide quality care for emerging health problems for the achievement of sustainable development goals. We collected data from 288 randomly selected registered nurses, from six tertiary-level hospitals. All nurses were requested to fill questionnaire consisted of Demographic Data Sheet, Quality of Nursing Work Life Survey, Expanded Nursing Stress Scale, Questionnaire of Organizational Commitment and Practice Environment Scale of the Nursing Work Index. Data were analysed by descriptive statistics and multiple regression. The quality of work life as perceived by nurses in Bangladesh was at moderate level. Monthly income was found as the best predictor followed by work environment, organizational commitment and job stress. A higher monthly income helps nurses to fulfil their personal needs; positive work environment helps to provide quality care to the patients. Quality of work life and predictors measured by self-report only may not reflect the original picture of the quality of work life among nurses. Findings provide information for nursing and health policymakers to develop policies to improve quality of work life among nurses that can contribute to quality of nursing care. This includes the working environment, commitment to the organization and measures to reduce job stress. © 2017 International Council of Nurses.

  3. Predicting tool life in turning operations using neural networks and image processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikołajczyk, T.; Nowicki, K.; Bustillo, A.; Yu Pimenov, D.

    2018-05-01

    A two-step method is presented for the automatic prediction of tool life in turning operations. First, experimental data are collected for three cutting edges under the same constant processing conditions. In these experiments, the parameter of tool wear, VB, is measured with conventional methods and the same parameter is estimated using Neural Wear, a customized software package that combines flank wear image recognition and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Second, an ANN model of tool life is trained with the data collected from the first two cutting edges and the subsequent model is evaluated on two different subsets for the third cutting edge: the first subset is obtained from the direct measurement of tool wear and the second is obtained from the Neural Wear software that estimates tool wear using edge images. Although the complete-automated solution, Neural Wear software for tool wear recognition plus the ANN model of tool life prediction, presented a slightly higher error than the direct measurements, it was within the same range and can meet all industrial requirements. These results confirm that the combination of image recognition software and ANN modelling could potentially be developed into a useful industrial tool for low-cost estimation of tool life in turning operations.

  4. How do Major, Violent and Nonviolent Opposition Campaigns, Impact Predicted Life Expectancy at birth?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith Stoddard

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This study compared the effects of major violent and nonviolent opposition campaigns for regime change, on predicted life expectancy at birth. The study measured life expectancy five and ten years after the campaign ended, so that deaths which occurred during the campaign would not be included in the metric, and thus enabling the study of changes made in the state on the social determinants affecting longevity, after the campaign was over. Life expectancy is one of the best reported World Development Indicators and is considered to be a good indication of the overall health and general living conditions of the state and therefore is an ideal indicator to reflect the changes made in the state following a major campaign. The results of this analysis showed that states have a hard time recovering from a major opposition campaign and initially drop behind the growth trend in the world average for predicted life expectancy at birth. But, the type of campaign that was waged and whether it was successful, greatly affects the state’s ability to recover. Encouragingly by a decade after the campaign ends, states that experienced a nonviolent campaign that was successful had caught up to the world average and inched ahead of it. This shows that on this important development indicator, new governments that were ushered into power by nonviolent social movements, had made positive changes in the state that enabled it to surpass world averages.

  5. The development of techniques for determining the residual life time prediction on NPP equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonov, Alexander V.; Dagaev, Alexander V.; Volnikov, Ivan S.

    1999-01-01

    The problem of determining the residual life prediction of NPP equipment is presently highly pressing. NPP residual life resources are 30 years, but for particular equipment it is much less. Thus, residual life resource for equipment of control and protection system of NPP unit is 5-10 years. The NPP equipment is expensive and its replacing requires much expense. Hence an urgent problem is to study residual life resources of equipment on the basis of statistic information obtained during operation. Deterministic approach of determining residual life resources for particular equipment is widely known in the literature. Physical and statistical models are also being developed for determining the residual life, e.g. the model (loading-bearing capability). The present work offers the techniques of the residual life determination reasoning from statistic information of functioning objects in the process of operation. To put the techniques into effect it is necessary to have information about the time of operation of a group of objects of the same type, the number of failures; it is desirable to know failure operating time, order of the object replacement and the reason which caused the replacement (failure or planned preventive maintenance). Metrics is based on studying the parameters for the series of failures resulted from real statistic data. Then we can proceed to distribution density of the failure working time. For this purpose the Voltarra's equation of the second order is solved f(t) = ω(t) + ∫ 0 t f(t - τ)ω(τ)dτ. Since statistics of data sampling related to failure is small due to difficulties in solution of Voltaire's equation, the authors offer moderate method of solution for the above equation. After distribution density of the failure working time is determined the calculation of equipment residual life is made by the following formula: T τ (t) 1/P(τ)∫ 0 ∞ P(t)dt. The proposed techniques are realised as the software. In the course of working

  6. Ambulatory fall-risk assessment: amount and quality of daily-life gait predict falls in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Schooten, Kimberley S; Pijnappels, Mirjam; Rispens, Sietse M; Elders, Petra J M; Lips, Paul; van Dieën, Jaap H

    2015-05-01

    Ambulatory measurements of trunk accelerations can provide valuable information on the amount and quality of daily-life activities and contribute to the identification of individuals at risk of falls. We compared associations between retrospective and prospective falls with potential risk factors as measured by daily-life accelerometry. In addition, we investigated predictive value of these parameters for 6-month prospective falls. One week of trunk accelerometry (DynaPort MoveMonitor) was obtained in 169 older adults (mean age 75). The amount of daily activity and quality of gait were determined and validated questionnaires on fall-risk factors, grip strength, and trail making test were obtained. Six-month fall incidence was obtained retrospectively by recall and prospectively by fall diaries and monthly telephone contact. Among all participants, 35.5% had a history of ≥1 falls and 34.9% experienced ≥1 falls during 6-month follow-up. Logistic regressions showed that questionnaires, grip strength, and trail making test, as well as the amount and quality of gait, were significantly associated with falls. Significant associations differed between retrospective and prospective analyses although odds ratios indicated similar patterns. Predictive ability based on questionnaires, grip strength, and trail making test (area under the curve .68) improved substantially by accelerometry-derived parameters of the amount of gait (number of strides), gait quality (complexity, intensity, and smoothness), and their interactions (area under the curve .82). Daily-life accelerometry contributes substantially to the identification of individuals at risk of falls, and can predict falls in 6 months with good accuracy. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Of PCOS symptoms, hirsutism has the most significant impact on the quality of life of Iranian women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahnaz Bahri Khomami

    Full Text Available Polycystic ovary syndrome is a common endocrine disorder affecting women both physically and psychologically and can lead to a poor quality of life compared to their normal counterparts. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of various clinical features of polycystic ovary syndrome on the health-related quality of life of Iranian women diagnosed with this syndrome.A total of 796 women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome, aged 15-49 years, completed the questionnaires, interviews, and medical assessments required for this study. A reliable and validated Persian version of the health-related quality of life questionnaire for polycystic ovary syndrome patients was used. Linear regression models were used to assess the association between the symptoms of polycystic ovary syndrome and health-related quality of life.The mean age of participants was 28.02 years. 35.4% of the subjects were classified as overweight or obese. Hirsutism, was reported to have the strongest impact on the patients' health-related quality of life, followed in descending order by body mass index, irregular menses and infertility. The relative level of hirsutism was directly proportional to decrease in health-related quality of life score (p<0.001.The results of the study found that hirsutism had the strongest impact on the health-related quality of life measures in Iranian women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome. Health care officials need to evaluate in depth the effect of each clinical feature of polycystic ovary syndrome separately and design management strategies, keeping in mind the psychological and physical manifestations.

  8. Of PCOS symptoms, hirsutism has the most significant impact on the quality of life of Iranian women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khomami, Mahnaz Bahri; Tehrani, Fahimeh Ramezani; Hashemi, Somayeh; Farahmand, Maryam; Azizi, Fereidoun

    2015-01-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome is a common endocrine disorder affecting women both physically and psychologically and can lead to a poor quality of life compared to their normal counterparts. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of various clinical features of polycystic ovary syndrome on the health-related quality of life of Iranian women diagnosed with this syndrome. A total of 796 women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome, aged 15-49 years, completed the questionnaires, interviews, and medical assessments required for this study. A reliable and validated Persian version of the health-related quality of life questionnaire for polycystic ovary syndrome patients was used. Linear regression models were used to assess the association between the symptoms of polycystic ovary syndrome and health-related quality of life. The mean age of participants was 28.02 years. 35.4% of the subjects were classified as overweight or obese. Hirsutism, was reported to have the strongest impact on the patients' health-related quality of life, followed in descending order by body mass index, irregular menses and infertility. The relative level of hirsutism was directly proportional to decrease in health-related quality of life score (p<0.001). The results of the study found that hirsutism had the strongest impact on the health-related quality of life measures in Iranian women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome. Health care officials need to evaluate in depth the effect of each clinical feature of polycystic ovary syndrome separately and design management strategies, keeping in mind the psychological and physical manifestations.

  9. Integrated genomic and immunophenotypic classification of pancreatic cancer reveals three distinct subtypes with prognostic/predictive significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wartenberg, Martin; Cibin, Silvia; Zlobec, Inti; Vassella, Erik; Eppenberger-Castori, Serenella M M; Terracciano, Luigi; Eichmann, Micha; Worni, Mathias; Gloor, Beat; Perren, Aurel; Karamitopoulou, Eva

    2018-04-16

    Current clinical classification of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is unable to predict prognosis or response to chemo- or immunotherapy and does not take into account the host reaction to PDAC-cells. Our aim is to classify PDAC according to host- and tumor-related factors into clinically/biologically relevant subtypes by integrating molecular and microenvironmental findings. A well-characterized PDAC-cohort (n=110) underwent next-generation sequencing with a hotspot cancer panel, while Next-generation Tissue-Microarrays were immunostained for CD3, CD4, CD8, CD20, PD-L1, p63, hyaluronan-mediated motility receptor (RHAMM) and DNA mismatch-repair proteins. Previous data on FOXP3 were integrated. Immune-cell counts and protein expression were correlated with tumor-derived driver mutations, clinicopathologic features (TNM 8. 2017), survival and epithelial-mesenchymal-transition (EMT)-like tumor budding.  Results: Three PDAC-subtypes were identified: the "immune-escape" (54%), poor in T- and B-cells and enriched in FOXP3+Tregs, with high-grade budding, frequent CDKN2A- , SMAD4- and PIK3CA-mutations and poor outcome; the "immune-rich" (35%), rich in T- and B-cells and poorer in FOXP3+Tregs, with infrequent budding, lower CDKN2A- and PIK3CA-mutation rate and better outcome and a subpopulation with tertiary lymphoid tissue (TLT), mutations in DNA damage response genes (STK11, ATM) and the best outcome; and the "immune-exhausted" (11%) with immunogenic microenvironment and two subpopulations: one with PD-L1-expression and high PIK3CA-mutation rate and a microsatellite-unstable subpopulation with high prevalence of JAK3-mutations. The combination of low budding, low stromal FOXP3-counts, presence of TLTs and absence of CDKN2A-mutations confers significant survival advantage in PDAC-patients. Immune host responses correlate with tumor characteristics leading to morphologically recognizable PDAC-subtypes with prognostic/predictive significance. Copyright ©2018

  10. Preoperative Metabolic Syndrome Is Predictive of Significant Gastric Cancer Mortality after Gastrectomy: The Fujian Prospective Investigation of Cancer (FIESTA Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Hu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Metabolic syndrome (MetS has been shown to be associated with an increased risk of gastric cancer. However, the impact of MetS on gastric cancer mortality remains largely unknown. Here, we prospectively examined the prediction of preoperative MetS for gastric cancer mortality by analyzing a subset of data from the ongoing Fujian prospective investigation of cancer (FIESTA study. This study was conducted among 3012 patients with gastric cancer who received radical gastrectomy between 2000 and 2010. The latest follow-up was completed in 2015. Blood/tissue specimens, demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics were collected at baseline. During 15-year follow-up, 1331 of 3012 patients died of gastric cancer. The median survival time (MST of patients with MetS was 31.3 months, which was significantly shorter than that of MetS-free patients (157.1 months. The coexistence of MetS before surgery was associated with a 2.3-fold increased risk for gastric cancer mortality (P < 0.001. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs were increased with invasion depth T1/T2 (HR = 2.78, P < 0.001, regional lymph node metastasis N0 (HR = 2.65, P < 0.001, positive distant metastasis (HR = 2.53, P < 0.001, TNM stage I/II (HR = 3.00, P < 0.001, intestinal type (HR = 2.96, P < 0.001, negative tumor embolus (HR = 2.34, P < 0.001, and tumor size ≤4.5 cm (HR = 2.49, P < 0.001. Further survival tree analysis confirmed the top splitting role of TNM stage, followed by MetS or hyperglycemia with remarkable discrimination ability. In this large cohort study, preoperative MetS, especially hyperglycemia, was predictive of significant gastric cancer mortality in patients with radical gastrectomy, especially for early stage of gastric cancer.

  11. Fatigue Life Prediction in Rapid Die Casting - Preliminary Work in View of Current Research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuan Huat Ng; Grote, Karl-Heinrich; Baehr, Ruediger

    2007-01-01

    Numerical simulation technique as a prediction tool is slowly adopted in metal casting industry for predicting design modelling solidification analysis. The reasons for this activity is found in the need to further enhance the geometrical design and mechanical properties of the tool design and the correct prediction methodology to fulfil industrial needs. The present state of numerical simulation capabilities in rapid die casting technologies is reviewed and the failure mode mechanisms of thermal fatigue, aimed at developing a numerical simulation with a systematic design guidance for predicting the thermal cyclic loading analysis and improvement is presented along with several other methods. The economic benefits of a numerical simulation technique in die casting are limited to tool life time, mechanical properties and design guidance. The extensive computer capabilities of a numerical simulation with a systematic design guidance methodology are exploited to provide a solution for flexible design, mechanical properties and mould life time. Related research carried out worldwide by different organisations and academic institutions are discussed

  12. Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Gas Turbine Engine using Autoregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahsan Shazaib

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Gas turbine (GT engines are known for their high availability and reliability and are extensively used for power generation, marine and aero-applications. Maintenance of such complex machines should be done proactively to reduce cost and sustain high availability of the GT. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of autoregressive (AR models to predict remaining useful life (RUL of a GT engine. The Turbofan Engine data from NASA benchmark data repository is used as case study. The parametric investigation is performed to check on any effect of changing model parameter on modelling accuracy. Results shows that a single sensory data cannot accurately predict RUL of GT and further research need to be carried out by incorporating multi-sensory data. Furthermore, the predictions made using AR model seems to give highly pessimistic values for RUL of GT.

  13. RandomForest4Life: a Random Forest for predicting ALS disease progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hothorn, Torsten; Jung, Hans H

    2014-09-01

    We describe a method for predicting disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. The method was developed as a submission to the DREAM Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life Challenge of summer 2012. Based on repeated patient examinations over a three- month period, we used a random forest algorithm to predict future disease progression. The procedure was set up and internally evaluated using data from 1197 ALS patients. External validation by an expert jury was based on undisclosed information of an additional 625 patients; all patient data were obtained from the PRO-ACT database. In terms of prediction accuracy, the approach described here ranked third best. Our interpretation of the prediction model confirmed previous reports suggesting that past disease progression is a strong predictor of future disease progression measured on the ALS functional rating scale (ALSFRS). We also found that larger variability in initial ALSFRS scores is linked to faster future disease progression. The results reported here furthermore suggested that approaches taking the multidimensionality of the ALSFRS into account promise some potential for improved ALS disease prediction.

  14. A novel health indicator for on-line lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yapeng; Huang, Miaohua; Chen, Yupu; Tao, Ye

    2016-07-01

    Prediction of lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life (RUL) plays an important role in an intelligent battery management system. The capacity and internal resistance are often used as the batteries health indicator (HI) for quantifying degradation and predicting RUL. However, on-line measurement of capacity and internal resistance are hardly realizable due to the not fully charged and discharged condition and the extremely expensive cost, respectively. Therefore, there is a great need to find an optional way to deal with this plight. In this work, a novel HI is extracted from the operating parameters of lithium-ion batteries for degradation modeling and RUL prediction. Moreover, Box-Cox transformation is employed to improve HI performance. Then Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses are utilized to evaluate the similarity between real capacity and the estimated capacity derived from the HI. Next, both simple statistical regression technique and optimized relevance vector machine are employed to predict the RUL based on the presented HI. The correlation analyses and prediction results show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed HI for battery degradation modeling and RUL prediction.

  15. Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A; Xu, Jing

    2015-01-01

    National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens' attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth--two key variables for climato-economic theory--predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories.

  16. Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinguang Zhang

    Full Text Available National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens' attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism, but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth--two key variables for climato-economic theory--predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks. Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories.

  17. Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.; Xu, Jing

    2015-01-01

    National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens’ attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth—two key variables for climato-economic theory—predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories. PMID:26030736

  18. Method for estimating capacity and predicting remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Chao; Jain, Gaurav; Tamirisa, Prabhakar; Gorka, Tom

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction. • A state projection scheme is derived for capacity estimation. • The Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used for the RUL prediction. • Results with 10 years’ continuous cycling data verify the effectiveness of the method. - Abstract: Reliability of lithium-ion (Li-ion) rechargeable batteries used in implantable medical devices has been recognized as of high importance from a broad range of stakeholders, including medical device manufacturers, regulatory agencies, physicians, and patients. To ensure Li-ion batteries in these devices operate reliably, it is important to be able to assess the capacity of Li-ion battery and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) throughout the whole life-time. This paper presents an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction of Li-ion battery used in implantable medical devices. A state projection scheme from the author’s previous study is used for the capacity estimation. Then, based on the capacity estimates, the Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used to project the capacity fade to the end-of-service (EOS) value (or the failure limit) for the RUL prediction. Results of 10 years’ continuous cycling test on Li-ion prismatic cells in the lab suggest that the proposed method achieves good accuracy in the capacity estimation and captures the uncertainty in the RUL prediction. Post-explant weekly cycling data obtained from field cells with 4–7 implant years further verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in the capacity estimation

  19. Validation of DAB2IP methylation and its relative significance in predicting outcome in renal cell carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liang-Yun; Kapur, Payal; Wu, Kai-Jie; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yan-Hong; Liao, Bing; He, Da-Lin; Chen, Wei; Margulis, Vitaly; Hsieh, Jer-Tsong; Luo, Jun-Hang

    2016-01-01

    We have recently reported tumor suppressive role of DAB2IP in RCC development. In this study, We identified one CpG methylation biomarker (DAB2IP CpG1) located UTSS of DAB2IP that was associated with poor overall survival in a cohort of 318 ccRCC patients from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We further validated the prognostic accuracy of DAB2IP CpG methylation by pyrosequencing quantitative methylation assay in 224 ccRCC patients from multiple Chinese centers (MCHC set), and 239 patients from University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas (UTSW set) by using FFPE samples. DAB2IP CpG1 can predict the overall survival of patients in TCGA, MCHC, and UTSW sets independent of patient age, Fuhrman grade and TNM stage (all p<0.05). DAB2IP CpG1 successfully categorized patients into high-risk and low-risk groups with significant differences of clinical outcome in respective clinical subsets, regardless of age, sex, grade, stage, or race (HR: 1.63-7.83; all p<0.05). The detection of DAB2IP CpG1 methylation was minimally affected by ITH in ccRCC. DAB2IP mRNA expression was regulated by DNA methylation in vitro. DAB2IP CpG1 methylation is a practical and repeatable biomarker for ccRCC, which can provide prognostic value that complements the current staging system. PMID:27129174

  20. Quality of life predicts outcome in a heart failure disease management program.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Loughlin, Christina

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND: Chronic heart failure (HF) is associated with a poor Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL). HRQoL has been shown to be a predictor of HF outcomes however, variability in the study designs make it difficult to apply these findings to a clinical setting. The aim of this study was to establish if HRQoL is a predictor of long-term mortality and morbidity in HF patients followed-up in a disease management program (DMP) and if a HRQoL instrument could be applied to aid in identifying high-risk patients within a clinical context. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of HF patients attending a DMP with 18+\\/-9 months follow-up. Clinical and biochemical parameters were recorded on discharge from index HF admission and HRQoL measures were recorded at 2 weeks post index admission. RESULTS: 225 patients were enrolled into the study (mean age=69+\\/-12 years, male=61%, and 78%=systolic HF). In multivariable analysis, all dimensions of HRQoL (measured by the Minnesota Living with HF Questionnaire) were independent predictors of both mortality and readmissions particularly in patients <80 years. A significant interaction between HRQoL and age (Total((HRQoL))age: p<0.001) indicated that the association of HRQoL with outcomes diminished as age increased. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that HRQoL is a predictor of outcome in HF patients managed in a DMP. Younger patients (<65 years) with a Total HRQoL score of > or =50 are at high risk of an adverse outcome. In older patients > or =80 years HRQoL is not useful in predicting outcome.

  1. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Lundholm

    Full Text Available Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that

  2. Leaf and life history traits predict plant growth in a green roof ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundholm, Jeremy; Heim, Amy; Tran, Stephanie; Smith, Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Green roof ecosystems are constructed to provide services such as stormwater retention and urban temperature reductions. Green roofs with shallow growing media represent stressful conditions for plant survival, thus plants that survive and grow are important for maximizing economic and ecological benefits. While field trials are essential for selecting appropriate green roof plants, we wanted to determine whether plant leaf traits could predict changes in abundance (growth) to provide a more general framework for plant selection. We quantified leaf traits and derived life-history traits (Grime's C-S-R strategies) for 13 species used in a four-year green roof experiment involving five plant life forms. Changes in canopy density in monocultures and mixtures containing one to five life forms were determined and related to plant traits using multiple regression. We expected traits related to stress-tolerance would characterize the species that best grew in this relatively harsh setting. While all species survived to the end of the experiment, canopy species diversity in mixture treatments was usually much lower than originally planted. Most species grew slower in mixture compared to monoculture, suggesting that interspecific competition reduced canopy diversity. Species dominant in mixture treatments tended to be fast-growing ruderals and included both native and non-native species. Specific leaf area was a consistently strong predictor of final biomass and the change in abundance in both monoculture and mixture treatments. Some species in contrasting life-form groups showed compensatory dynamics, suggesting that life-form mixtures can maximize resilience of cover and biomass in the face of environmental fluctuations. This study confirms that plant traits can be used to predict growth performance in green roof ecosystems. While rapid canopy growth is desirable for green roofs, maintenance of species diversity may require engineering of conditions that favor less

  3. Life prediction for high temperature low cycle fatigue of two kinds of titanium alloys based on exponential function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, G. Y.; Mi, X. Z.; Wang, F.

    2018-01-01

    The high temperature low cycle fatigue tests of TC4 titanium alloy and TC11 titanium alloy are carried out under strain controlled. The relationships between cyclic stress-life and strain-life are analyzed. The high temperature low cycle fatigue life prediction model of two kinds of titanium alloys is established by using Manson-Coffin method. The relationship between failure inverse number and plastic strain range presents nonlinear in the double logarithmic coordinates. Manson-Coffin method assumes that they have linear relation. Therefore, there is bound to be a certain prediction error by using the Manson-Coffin method. In order to solve this problem, a new method based on exponential function is proposed. The results show that the fatigue life of the two kinds of titanium alloys can be predicted accurately and effectively by using these two methods. Prediction accuracy is within ±1.83 times scatter zone. The life prediction capability of new methods based on exponential function proves more effective and accurate than Manson-Coffin method for two kinds of titanium alloys. The new method based on exponential function can give better fatigue life prediction results with the smaller standard deviation and scatter zone than Manson-Coffin method. The life prediction results of two methods for TC4 titanium alloy prove better than TC11 titanium alloy.

  4. The significance of microbe-mineral-biomarker interactions in the detection of life on Mars and beyond

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Röling, Wilfred F M; Aerts, Joost W.; Patty, C. H Lucas; Ten Kate, Inge Loes; Ehrenfreund, Pascale; Direito, Susana O L

    The detection of biomarkers plays a central role in our effort to establish whether there is, or was, life beyond Earth. In this review, we address the importance of considering mineralogy in relation to the selection of locations and biomarker detection methodologies with characteristics most

  5. The Significance of Microbe-Mineral-Biomarker Interactions in the Detection of Life on Mars and Beyond.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roling, W.F.M.; Aerts, J.W.; Patty, C.H.L.; ten Kate, I.L.; Ehrenfreund, P.; Direito, S.O.

    2015-01-01

    The detection of biomarkers plays a central role in our effort to establish whether there is, or was, life beyond Earth. In this review, we address the importance of considering mineralogy in relation to the selection of locations and biomarker detection methodologies with characteristics most

  6. Are stormwater pollution impacts significant in life cycle assessment? A new methodology for quantifying embedded urban stormwater impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Robert; Jeswani, Harish Kumar; Azapagic, Adisa; Apul, Defne

    2018-09-15

    Current life cycle assessment (LCA) models do not explicitly incorporate the impacts from urban stormwater pollution. To address this issue, a framework to estimate the impacts from urban stormwater pollution over the lifetime of a system has been developed, laying the groundwork for subsequent improvements in life cycle databases and LCA modelling. The proposed framework incorporates urban stormwater event mean concentration (EMC) data into existing LCA impact categories to account for the environmental impacts associated with urban land occupation across the whole life cycle of a system. It consists of five steps: (1) compilation of inventory of urban stormwater pollutants; (2) collection of precipitation data; (3) classification and characterisation within existing midpoint impact categories; (4) collation of inventory data for impermeable urban land occupation; and (5) impact assessment. The framework is generic and can be applied to any system using any LCA impact method. Its application is demonstrated by two illustrative case studies: electricity generation and production of construction materials. The results show that pollutants in urban stormwater have an influence on human toxicity, freshwater and marine ecotoxicity, marine eutrophication, freshwater eutrophication and terrestrial ecotoxicity. Among these, urban stormwater pollution has the highest relative contribution to the eutrophication potentials. The results also suggest that stormwater pollution from urban areas can have a substantial effect on the life cycle impacts of some systems (construction materials), while for some systems the effect is small (e.g. electricity generation). However, it is not possible to determine a priori which systems are affected so that the impacts from stormwater pollution should be considered routinely in future LCA studies. The paper also proposes ways to incorporate stormwater pollution burdens into the life cycle databases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All

  7. Fatigue life prediction method for contact wire using maximum local stress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yong Seok; Haochuang, Li; Seok, Chang Sung; Koo, Jae Mean [Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Ki Won; Kwon, Sam Young; Cho, Yong Hyeon [Korea Railroad Research Institute, Uiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-01-15

    Railway contact wires supplying electricity to trains are exposed to repeated mechanical strain and stress caused by their own weight and discontinuous contact with a pantograph during train operation. Since the speed of railway transportation has increased continuously, railway industries have recently reported a number of contact wire failures caused by mechanical fatigue fractures instead of normal wear, which has been a more common failure mechanism. To secure the safety and durability of contact wires in environments with increased train speeds, a bending fatigue test on contact wire has been performed. The test equipment is too complicated to evaluate the fatigue characteristics of contact wire. Thus, the axial tension fatigue test was performed for a standard specimen, and the bending fatigue life for the contact wire structure was then predicted using the maximum local stress occurring at the top of the contact wire. Lastly, the tested bending fatigue life of the structure was compared with the fatigue life predicted by the axial tension fatigue test for verification.

  8. A method for gear fatigue life prediction considering the internal flow field of the gear pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Haidong; Li, Zhiqiang; Qi, Lele; Qiao, Liang

    2018-01-01

    Gear pump is the most widely used volume type hydraulic pump, and it is the main power source of the hydraulic system. Its performance is influenced by many factors, such as working environment, maintenance, fluid pressure and so on. It is different from the gear transmission system, the internal flow field of gear pump has a greater impact on the gear life, therefore it needs to consider the internal hydraulic system when predicting the gear fatigue life. In this paper, a certain aircraft gear pump as the research object, aim at the typical failure forms, gear contact fatigue, of gear pump, proposing the prediction method based on the virtual simulation. The method use CFD (Computational fluid dynamics) software to analyze pressure distribution of internal flow field of the gear pump, and constructed the unidirectional flow-solid coupling model of gear to acquire the contact stress of tooth surface on Ansys workbench software. Finally, employing nominal stress method and Miner cumulative damage theory to calculated the gear contact fatigue life based on modified material P-S-N curve. Engineering practice show that the method is feasible and efficient.

  9. Degradation model and application in life prediction of rotating-mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Yuhui

    2009-01-01

    The degradation data can provide additional information beyond that provided by the failure observations, both sets of observations need to be considered when doing inference on the statistical parameters of the product and system lifetime distributions. By the degradation model showing the wear out failure, the predicted results of mechanism life is more accurate. Strength is one of the important capabilities of the rotating mechanism. In this paper, the degradation data of strength are described as a stochastic process model. Accelerated tests expose the products to greater environmental stress levels so that we can obtain lifetime and degradation measurements in a more timely fashion. Using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimation (BLUE) Method, the parameters under the degradation path were estimated from the accelerated life test (ALT) data of the rotating mechanism. Based on solving the singularity of degradation equation, at any time the reliability is estimated by the using the strength-stress interference theory. So we can predict the life of the rotating mechanism. (authors)

  10. Fatigue life prediction method for contact wire using maximum local stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yong Seok; Haochuang, Li; Seok, Chang Sung; Koo, Jae Mean; Lee, Ki Won; Kwon, Sam Young; Cho, Yong Hyeon

    2015-01-01

    Railway contact wires supplying electricity to trains are exposed to repeated mechanical strain and stress caused by their own weight and discontinuous contact with a pantograph during train operation. Since the speed of railway transportation has increased continuously, railway industries have recently reported a number of contact wire failures caused by mechanical fatigue fractures instead of normal wear, which has been a more common failure mechanism. To secure the safety and durability of contact wires in environments with increased train speeds, a bending fatigue test on contact wire has been performed. The test equipment is too complicated to evaluate the fatigue characteristics of contact wire. Thus, the axial tension fatigue test was performed for a standard specimen, and the bending fatigue life for the contact wire structure was then predicted using the maximum local stress occurring at the top of the contact wire. Lastly, the tested bending fatigue life of the structure was compared with the fatigue life predicted by the axial tension fatigue test for verification.

  11. Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Ali, Jaouher; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Saidi, Lotfi; Malinowski, Simon; Fnaiech, Farhat

    2015-05-01

    Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of critical assets is an important challenge in condition based maintenance to improve reliability and decrease machine's breakdown and maintenance's cost. Bearing is one of the most important components in industries which need to be monitored and the user should predict its RUL. The challenge of this study is to propose an original feature able to evaluate the health state of bearings and to estimate their RUL by Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) techniques. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the data-driven prognostic approach. The combination of Simplified Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory Map (SFAM) neural network and Weibull distribution (WD) is explored. WD is used just in the training phase to fit measurement and to avoid areas of fluctuation in the time domain. SFAM training process is based on fitted measurements at present and previous inspection time points as input. However, the SFAM testing process is based on real measurements at present and previous inspections. Thanks to the fuzzy learning process, SFAM has an important ability and a good performance to learn nonlinear time series. As output, seven classes are defined; healthy bearing and six states for bearing degradation. In order to find the optimal RUL prediction, a smoothing phase is proposed in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reliably predict the RUL of rolling element bearings (REBs) based on vibration signals. The proposed prediction approach can be applied to prognostic other various mechanical assets.

  12. Predicting employment status and subjective quality of life in patients with schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruo Fujino

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Although impaired social functioning, particularly poor employment status, is a cardinal feature of patients with schizophrenia and leads to decreased quality of life (QOL, few studies have addressed the relationship between these two clinical issues. The aim of this study was to determine whether employment status predicts subjective QOL and to evaluate a model in which functional capacity mediates the relationship between general cognitive performance and employment status. Ninety-three patients with schizophrenia were administered a comprehensive battery of cognitive tests, the UCSD Performance-based Skills Assessment-Brief version (UPSA-B, the Social Functioning Scale (SFS, and the Subjective Quality of Life Scale (SQLS. First, we evaluated a model for predicting the employment/occupation subscale score of the SFS using path analysis, and the model fitted well (χ2 (4 = 3.6, p = 0.46; CFI = 1.0; RMSEA < 0.001, with 90% CIs: 0–0.152. Employment status was predicted by negative symptoms and functional capacity, which was in turn predicted by general cognitive performance. Second, we added subjective QOL to this model. In a final path model, QOL was predicted by negative symptoms and employment status. This model also satisfied good fit criteria (χ2 (7 = 10.3, p = 0.17; CFI = 0.987; RMSEA = 0.072, with 90% CIs: 0–0.159. The UPSA-B and SFS scores were moderately correlated with most measures of cognitive performance. These results support the notion that better employment status enhances subjective QOL in patients with schizophrenia.

  13. A comprehensive energy approach to predict fatigue life in CuAlBe shape memory alloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sameallah, S; Kadkhodaei, M; Legrand, V; Saint-Sulpice, L; Arbab Chirani, S

    2015-01-01

    Stabilized dissipated energy is an effective parameter on the fatigue life of shape memory alloys (SMAs). In this study, a formula is proposed to directly evaluate the stabilized dissipated energy for different values of the maximum and minimum applied stresses, as well as the loading frequency, under cyclic tensile loadings. To this aim, a one-dimensional fully coupled thermomechanical constitutive model and a cycle-dependent phase diagram are employed to predict the uniaxial stress-strain response of an SMA in a specified cycle, including the stabilized one, with no need of obtaining the responses of the previous cycles. An enhanced phase diagram in which different slopes are defined for the start and finish of a backward transformation strip is also proposed to enable the capture of gradual transformations in a CuAlBe shape memory alloy. It is shown that the present approach is capable of reproducing the experimental responses of CuAlBe specimens under cyclic tensile loadings. An explicit formula is further presented to predict the fatigue life of CuAlBe as a function of the maximum and minimum applied stresses as well as the loading frequency. Fatigue tests are also carried out, and this formula is verified against the empirically predicted number of cycles for failure. (paper)

  14. A comprehensive energy approach to predict fatigue life in CuAlBe shape memory alloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sameallah, S.; Legrand, V.; Saint-Sulpice, L.; Kadkhodaei, M.; Arbab Chirani, S.

    2015-02-01

    Stabilized dissipated energy is an effective parameter on the fatigue life of shape memory alloys (SMAs). In this study, a formula is proposed to directly evaluate the stabilized dissipated energy for different values of the maximum and minimum applied stresses, as well as the loading frequency, under cyclic tensile loadings. To this aim, a one-dimensional fully coupled thermomechanical constitutive model and a cycle-dependent phase diagram are employed to predict the uniaxial stress-strain response of an SMA in a specified cycle, including the stabilized one, with no need of obtaining the responses of the previous cycles. An enhanced phase diagram in which different slopes are defined for the start and finish of a backward transformation strip is also proposed to enable the capture of gradual transformations in a CuAlBe shape memory alloy. It is shown that the present approach is capable of reproducing the experimental responses of CuAlBe specimens under cyclic tensile loadings. An explicit formula is further presented to predict the fatigue life of CuAlBe as a function of the maximum and minimum applied stresses as well as the loading frequency. Fatigue tests are also carried out, and this formula is verified against the empirically predicted number of cycles for failure.

  15. Triaging TIA/minor stroke patients using the ABCD2 score does not predict those with significant carotid disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, J; Isherwood, J; Eveson, D; Naylor, A R

    2012-05-01

    'Rapid Access' TIA Clinics use the ABCD(2) score to triage patients as it is not possible to see everyone with a suspected TIA TIA/minor stroke or 'carotid territory' TIA/minor stroke. Between 1.10.2008 and 31.04.2011, 2452 patients were referred to the Leicester Rapid Access TIA Service. After Stroke Physician review, 1273 (52%) were thought to have suffered a minor stroke/TIA. Of these, both FD/ED referrer and Specialist Stroke Consultant ABCD(2) scores and carotid Duplex ultrasound studies were available for 843 (66%). The yield for identifying a ≥50% stenosis or carotid occlusion was 109/843 (12.9%) in patients with 'any territory' TIA/minor stroke and 101/740 (13.6%) in those with a clinical diagnosis of 'carotid territory' TIA/minor stroke. There was no association between ABCD(2) score and the likelihood of encountering significant carotid disease and analyses of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for FD/ED referrer and stroke specialist ABCD(2) scores showed no prediction of carotid stenosis (FD/ED: AUC 0.50 (95%CI 0.44-0.55, p = 0.9), Specialist: AUC 0.51 (95%CI 0.45-0.57, p = 0.78). The ABCD(2) score was unable to identify TIA/minor stroke patients with a higher prevalence of clinically important ipsilateral carotid disease. Copyright © 2012 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Patient-specific metrics of invasiveness reveal significant prognostic benefit of resection in a predictable subset of gliomas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne L Baldock

    Full Text Available Malignant gliomas are incurable, primary brain neoplasms noted for their potential to extensively invade brain parenchyma. Current methods of clinical imaging do not elucidate the full extent of brain invasion, making it difficult to predict which, if any, patients are likely to benefit from gross total resection. Our goal was to apply a mathematical modeling approach to estimate the overall tumor invasiveness on a patient-by-patient basis and determine whether gross total resection would improve survival in patients with relatively less invasive gliomas.In 243 patients presenting with contrast-enhancing gliomas, estimates of the relative invasiveness of each patient's tumor, in terms of the ratio of net proliferation rate of the glioma cells to their net dispersal rate, were derived by applying a patient-specific mathematical model to routine pretreatment MR imaging. The effect of varying degrees of extent of resection on overall survival was assessed for cohorts of patients grouped by tumor invasiveness.We demonstrate that patients with more diffuse tumors showed no survival benefit (P = 0.532 from gross total resection over subtotal/biopsy, while those with nodular (less diffuse tumors showed a significant benefit (P = 0.00142 with a striking median survival benefit of over eight months compared to sub-totally resected tumors in the same cohort (an 80% improvement in survival time for GTR only seen for nodular tumors.These results suggest that our patient-specific, model-based estimates of tumor invasiveness have clinical utility in surgical decision making. Quantification of relative invasiveness assessed from routinely obtained pre-operative imaging provides a practical predictor of the benefit of gross total resection.

  17. Survival prediction algorithms miss significant opportunities for improvement if used for case selection in trauma quality improvement programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heim, Catherine; Cole, Elaine; West, Anita; Tai, Nigel; Brohi, Karim

    2016-09-01

    Quality improvement (QI) programs have shown to reduce preventable mortality in trauma care. Detailed review of all trauma deaths is a time and resource consuming process and calculated probability of survival (Ps) has been proposed as audit filter. Review is limited on deaths that were 'expected to survive'. However no Ps-based algorithm has been validated and no study has examined elements of preventability associated with deaths classified as 'expected'. The objective of this study was to examine whether trauma performance review can be streamlined using existing mortality prediction tools without missing important areas for improvement. We conducted a retrospective study of all trauma deaths reviewed by our trauma QI program. Deaths were classified into non-preventable, possibly preventable, probably preventable or preventable. Opportunities for improvement (OPIs) involve failure in the process of care and were classified into clinical and system deviations from standards of care. TRISS and PS were used for calculation of probability of survival. Peer-review charts were reviewed by a single investigator. Over 8 years, 626 patients were included. One third showed elements of preventability and 4% were preventable. Preventability occurred across the entire range of the calculated Ps band. Limiting review to unexpected deaths would have missed over 50% of all preventability issues and a third of preventable deaths. 37% of patients showed opportunities for improvement (OPIs). Neither TRISS nor PS allowed for reliable identification of OPIs and limiting peer-review to patients with unexpected deaths would have missed close to 60% of all issues in care. TRISS and PS fail to identify a significant proportion of avoidable deaths and miss important opportunities for process and system improvement. Based on this, all trauma deaths should be subjected to expert panel review in order to aim at a maximal output of performance improvement programs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier

  18. Predicting the Job and Life Satisfaction of Italian Teachers: Test of a Social Cognitive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lent, Robert W.; Nota, Laura; Soresi, Salvatore; Ginevra, Maria C.; Duffy, Ryan D.; Brown, Steven D.

    2011-01-01

    This study tested a social cognitive model of work and life satisfaction (Lent & Brown, 2006, 2008) in a sample of 235 Italian school teachers. The model offered good overall fit to the data, though not all individual path coefficients were significant. Three of five predictors (favorable work conditions, efficacy-relevant supports, and…

  19. Monitoring Shelf Life of Pasteurized Whole Milk Under Refrigerated Storage Conditions: Predictive Models for Quality Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziyaina, Mohamed; Govindan, Byju N; Rasco, Barbara; Coffey, Todd; Sablani, Shyam S

    2018-02-01

    The shelf life of pasteurized milk is generally determined through microbiological analysis. The objective of this study was to correlate microbial quality parameters then to design predictive models for shelf life of pasteurized milk. We analyzed pasteurized milk (3.9% fat) for aerobic plate counts (APCs), psychrotrophic bacteria counts (PBCs), and Bacillus spp. counts at 5, 7, 10, 13, 15, and 19 (±1 °C) to the end of storage time. We also monitored titratable acidity, pH, and, lipase, and protease activity and correlated this with APC, which is the principal index defining shelf life. Results indicate that the shelf life of pasteurized milk was 24, 36, and 72 h at 19, 15, and 13 °C respectively, as determined by APC and acidity indicators. However, milk stored at lower temperatures of 5, 7, and 10 °C had longer shelf life of 30, 24, and 12 d, respectively. A sharp increase in titratable acidity, while decrease pH were observed when APCs reached 5.0 log 10 CFU/mL at all storage temperatures. Lipase and protease activities increased with storage temperature. At 5 and 7 °C, however, protease activity was very low. Therefore, we eliminated this parameter from our quality parameters as a potential spoilage indicator. Findings of this research are useful for monitoring the quality of commercial pasteurized milk, particularly in locations where environmental conditions make longer storage difficult. The study also provides valuable information for development of colorimetric shelf life indicators. © 2018 Institute of Food Technologists®.

  20. Histological variability in the limb bones of the Asiatic wild ass and its significance for life history inferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nacarino-Meneses, Carmen; Jordana, Xavier; Köhler, Meike

    2016-01-01

    The study of bone growth marks (BGMs) and other histological traits of bone tissue provides insights into the life history of present and past organisms. Important life history traits like longevity or age at maturity, which could be inferred from the analysis of these features, form the basis for estimations of demographic parameters that are essential in ecological and evolutionary studies of vertebrates. Here, we study the intraskeletal histological variability in an ontogenetic series of Asiatic wild ass ( Equus hemionus ) in order to assess the suitability of several skeletal elements to reconstruct the life history strategy of the species. Bone tissue types, vascular canal orientation and BGMs have been analyzed in 35 cross-sections of femur, tibia and metapodial bones of 9 individuals of different sexes, ages and habitats. Our results show that the number of BGMs recorded by the different limb bones varies within the same specimen. Our study supports that the femur is the most reliable bone for skeletochronology, as already suggested. Our findings also challenge traditional beliefs with regard to the meaning of deposition of the external fundamental system (EFS). In the Asiatic wild ass, this bone tissue is deposited some time after skeletal maturity and, in the case of the femora, coinciding with the reproductive maturity of the species. The results obtained from this research are not only relevant for future studies in fossil Equus , but could also contribute to improve the conservation strategies of threatened equid species.

  1. Fatigue mechanics - An assessment of a unified approach to life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newman, J.C. Jr.; Phillips, E.P.; Swain, M.H.; Everett, R.A. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Consideration is given to the development of a total-life prediction methodology for aerospace structures based solely on crack propagation from a microstructural defect at stress concentrations. Crack-growth lives were calculated for a given loading condition by integrating the crack-growth-rate-against-delta K relationships for crack growth from a microstructural defect size to failure. Both small- and large-crack growth rate data were used. The assessment was based on data on 2024-T3 aluminum alloy, 2090-T8E41 aluminum-lithium alloy, annealed Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy, and high-strength 4340 steel under either constant-amplitude or spectrum loading. Good agreement was found between fatigue lives measured on notched specimens with those computed from the total-life analysis. 29 refs

  2. Neuroticism and Extraversion in Youth Predict Mental Wellbeing and Life Satisfaction 40 Years Later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Catharine R; Booth, Tom; Mõttus, René; Kuh, Diana; Deary, Ian J

    2014-01-01

    Neuroticism and Extraversion are linked with current wellbeing, but it is unclear whether these traits in youth predict wellbeing decades later. We applied structural equation modelling to data from 4583 people from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. We examined the effects of Neuroticism and Extraversion at ages 16 and 26 years on mental wellbeing and life satisfaction at age 60-64 and explored the mediating roles of psychological and physical health. Extraversion had direct, positive effects on both measures of wellbeing. The impact of Neuroticism on both wellbeing and life satisfaction was largely indirect through susceptibility to psychological distress and physical health problems. Personality dispositions in youth have enduring influence on wellbeing assessed about forty years later. PMID:24563560

  3. Shelf-Life Prediction of Extra Virgin Olive Oils Using an Empirical Model Based on Standard Quality Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Guillaume

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extra virgin olive oil shelf-life could be defined as the length of time under normal storage conditions within which no off-flavours or defects are developed and quality parameters such as peroxide value and specific absorbance are retained within accepted limits for this commercial category. Prediction of shelf-life is a desirable goal in the food industry. Even when extra virgin olive oil shelf-life should be one of the most important quality markers for extra virgin olive oil, it is not recognised as a legal parameter in most regulations and standards around the world. The proposed empirical formula to be evaluated in the present study is based on common quality tests with known and predictable result changes over time and influenced by different aspects of extra virgin olive oil with a meaningful influence over its shelf-life. The basic quality tests considered in the formula are Rancimat® or induction time (IND; 1,2-diacylglycerols (DAGs; pyropheophytin a (PPP; and free fatty acids (FFA. This paper reports research into the actual shelf-life of commercially packaged extra virgin olive oils versus the predicted shelf-life of those oils determined by analysing the expected deterioration curves for the three basic quality tests detailed above. Based on the proposed model, shelf-life is predicted by choosing the lowest predicted shelf-life of any of those three tests.

  4. The prediction of reliability and residual life of reactor pressure components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemec, J.; Antalovsky, S.

    1978-01-01

    The paper deals with the problem of PWR pressure components reliability and residual life evaluation and prediction. A physical model of damage cumulation which serves as a theoretical basis for all considerations presents two major aspects. The first one describes the dependence of the degree of damage in the crack leading-edge in pressure components on the reactor system load-time history, i.e. on the number of transient loads. Both stages, fatigue crack initiation and growth through the wall until the critical length is reached, are investigated. The crack is supposed to initiate at the flaws in a strength weld joint or in the bimetallic weld of the base ferritic steel and the austenitic stainless overlay cladding. The growth rates of developed cracks are analysed in respect to different load-time histories. Important cyclic properties of some steels are derived from the low-cycle fatigue theory. The second aspect is the load-time history-dependent process of precipitation, deformation and radiation aging, characterized entirely by the critical crack-length value mentioned above. The fracture point, defined by the equation ''crack-length=critical value'' and hence the residual life, can be evaluated using this model and verified by in-service inspection. The physical model described is randomized by considering all the parameters of the model as random. Monte Carlo methods are applied and fatigue crack initiation and growth is simulated. This permits evaluation of the reliability and residual life of the component. The distributions of material and load-time history parameters are needed for such simulation. Both the deterministic and computer-simulated probabilistic predictions of reliability and residual life are verified by prior-to-failure sequential testing of data coming from in-service NDT periodical inspections. (author)

  5. Service Life Prediction of Wood Claddings by in-situ Measurement of Wood Moisture Content

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, Emil Tang; Lindegaard, Berit; Morsing, Niels

    2009-01-01

    of wood moisture are done by in-situ resistance moisture meters (Lindegaard and Morsing 2006). The aim is that the test should form the basis of evaluation of the maintenance requirements and the prediction of service life of the surface treatment and the wood/construction. At the moment 60 test racks...... are exposed. This study examines the data from the first five years of outdoor exposure using data from a test rack with a water-borne acrylic coating and a test rack with ICP coating for case studies. The moisture content data was converted into weekly average and weekly variation values which gave a deeper...

  6. Energy Dissipation-Based Method for Fatigue Life Prediction of Rock Salt

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Mingming; Huang, Bingqian; Zhu, Caihui; Chen, Yunsheng; Li, Ning

    2018-05-01

    The fatigue test for rock salt is conducted under different stress amplitudes, loading frequencies, confining pressures and loading rates, from which the evaluation rule of the dissipated energy is revealed and analysed. The evolution of energy dissipation under fatigue loading is divided into three stages: the initial stage, the second stage and the acceleration stage. In the second stage, the energy dissipation per cycle remains stable and shows an exponential relation with the stress amplitude; the failure dissipated energy only depends on the mechanical behaviour of the rock salt and confining pressure, but it is immune to the loading conditions. The energy dissipation of fatigued rock salt is discussed, and a novel model for fatigue life prediction is proposed on the basis of energy dissipation. A simple model for evolution of the accumulative dissipated energy is established. Its prediction results are compared with the test results, and the proposed model is validated.

  7. Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm-Based Particle Filter for Li-Ion Battery Life Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Tian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An intelligent online prognostic approach is proposed for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL of lithium-ion (Li-ion batteries based on artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA and particle filter (PF, which is an integrated approach combining model-based method with data-driven method. The parameters, used in the empirical model which is based on the capacity fade trends of Li-ion batteries, are identified dependent on the tracking ability of PF. AFSA-PF aims to improve the performance of the basic PF. By driving the prior particles to the domain with high likelihood, AFSA-PF allows global optimization, prevents particle degeneracy, thereby improving particle distribution and increasing prediction accuracy and algorithm convergence. Data provided by NASA are used to verify this approach and compare it with basic PF and regularized PF. AFSA-PF is shown to be more accurate and precise.

  8. New paradigm for prediction of radiation life-time of reactor pressure vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotrechko, S.A.; Meshkov, Yu.Ya.; Neklyudov, I.M.; Revka, V.N.

    2011-01-01

    New paradigm for prediction of radiation life-time of reactor pressure vessel is presented. Equation for limiting state of reactor pressure vessel wall with crack-like defect is obtained. It is exhibited that the value of critical fluence Φ c may be determined not by shift of critical temperature of fracture of surveillance specimen, which is indirect characteristic, but by direct method, namely, by the condition of initiation of brittle fracture of irradiated metal ahead of a crack in RPV wall. Within the framework of engineering version of LA to fracture the technique for Φ c ascertainment is developed. Prediction of Φ c for WWER pressure vessels demonstrates potentialities of this technique.

  9. Quality of life after surgical treatment of coarctation in long-term follow-up (CoAFU): Predictive value of clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambul Heck, Pinar; Pabst von Ohain, Jelena; Kaemmerer, Harald; Ewert, Peter; Hager, Alfred

    2018-01-01

    We sought to analyze the quality of life and the predictive value of clinical variables from previous follow-up study in patients late after surgical treatment of aortic coarctation on the quality of life. All patients, who have participated in the prospective cross-sectional COALA Study in 2000 with a structural clinical investigation including blood pressure measurement and symptom-limited exercise test were contacted for the health-related quality of life questionnaire SF-36 from January 2013 through December 2014. From 273 eligible patients, we received data from 135 patients, 9 of them died during the follow-up time at the median age of 46years (range 30-64years). Seventy-four patients did not participate in the study, other 64 patients moved to remote or unknown areas and could not be contacted. Quality of life was good in the fields of physical role and pain. However, patients reported a significant impairment in general health and in health transition, depending on the age. Arterial hypertension and variables from echocardiography or exercise testing from the COALA study were not predictive on functional health status. Quality of life in patients late after aortic coarctation repair is fairly good compared with healthy controls. Impairments in general health and health transition depend mainly on age, can be explained due to numerous comorbidities and reinterventions in long-term. The predictive value of the commonly assessed clinical variables on quality of life is limited. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  10. [Research on engine remaining useful life prediction based on oil spectrum analysis and particle filtering].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lei; Jia, Yun-xian; Cai, Li-ying; Lin, Guo-yu; Zhao, Jin-song

    2013-09-01

    The spectrometric oil analysis(SOA) is an important technique for machine state monitoring, fault diagnosis and prognosis, and SOA based remaining useful life(RUL) prediction has an advantage of finding out the optimal maintenance strategy for machine system. Because the complexity of machine system, its health state degradation process can't be simply characterized by linear model, while particle filtering(PF) possesses obvious advantages over traditional Kalman filtering for dealing nonlinear and non-Gaussian system, the PF approach was applied to state forecasting by SOA, and the RUL prediction technique based on SOA and PF algorithm is proposed. In the prediction model, according to the estimating result of system's posterior probability, its prior probability distribution is realized, and the multi-step ahead prediction model based on PF algorithm is established. Finally, the practical SOA data of some engine was analyzed and forecasted by the above method, and the forecasting result was compared with that of traditional Kalman filtering method. The result fully shows the superiority and effectivity of the

  11. Remaining useful life prediction based on variation coefficient consistency test of a Wiener process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan LI

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available High-cost equipment is often reused after maintenance, and whether the information before the maintenance can be used for the Remaining Useful Life (RUL prediction after the maintenance is directly determined by the consistency of the degradation pattern before and after the maintenance. Aiming at this problem, an RUL prediction method based on the consistency test of a Wiener process is proposed. Firstly, the parameters of the Wiener process estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE are proved to be biased, and a modified unbiased estimation method is proposed and verified by derivation and simulations. Then, the h statistic is constructed according to the reciprocal of the variation coefficient of the Wiener process, and the sampling distribution is derived. Meanwhile, a universal method for the consistency test is proposed based on the sampling distribution theorem, which is verified by simulation data and classical crack degradation data. Finally, based on the consistency test of the degradation model, a weighted fusion RUL prediction method is presented for the fuel pump of an airplane, and the validity of the presented method is verified by accurate computation results of real data, which provides a theoretical and practical guidance for engineers to predict the RUL of equipment after maintenance.

  12. Ensemble of data-driven prognostic algorithms for robust prediction of remaining useful life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Chao; Youn, Byeng D.; Wang Pingfeng; Taek Yoon, Joung

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics aims at determining whether a failure of an engineered system (e.g., a nuclear power plant) is impending and estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) before the failure occurs. The traditional data-driven prognostic approach is to construct multiple candidate algorithms using a training data set, evaluate their respective performance using a testing data set, and select the one with the best performance while discarding all the others. This approach has three shortcomings: (i) the selected standalone algorithm may not be robust; (ii) it wastes the resources for constructing the algorithms that are discarded; (iii) it requires the testing data in addition to the training data. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper proposes an ensemble data-driven prognostic approach which combines multiple member algorithms with a weighted-sum formulation. Three weighting schemes, namely the accuracy-based weighting, diversity-based weighting and optimization-based weighting, are proposed to determine the weights of member algorithms. The k-fold cross validation (CV) is employed to estimate the prediction error required by the weighting schemes. The results obtained from three case studies suggest that the ensemble approach with any weighting scheme gives more accurate RUL predictions compared to any sole algorithm when member algorithms producing diverse RUL predictions have comparable prediction accuracy and that the optimization-based weighting scheme gives the best overall performance among the three weighting schemes.

  13. Does early-life income inequality predict self-reported health in later life? Evidence from the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillard, Dean R; Burkhauser, Richard V; Hahn, Markus H; Wilkins, Roger

    2015-03-01

    We investigate the association between adult health and the income inequality they experienced as children up to 80 years earlier. Our inequality data track shares of national income held by top percentiles from 1913 to 2009. We average those data over the same early-life years and merge them to individual data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data for 1984-2009. Controlling for demographic and economic factors, we find both men and women are statistically more likely to report poorer health if income was more unequally distributed during the first years of their lives. The association is robust to alternative specifications of income inequality and time trends and remains significant even when we control for differences in overall childhood health. Our results constitute prima facie evidence that adults' health may be adversely affected by the income inequality they experienced as children. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. [Prediction of life expectancy for prostate cancer patients based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viktorov, A A; Zharinov, G M; Neklasova, N Ju; Morozova, E E

    2017-01-01

    The article presents a methodical approach for prediction of life expectancy for people diagnosed with prostate cancer based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems. The life expectancy is calculated by solving the differential equation for the rate of aging for three different stage of life - «normal» life, life with prostate cancer and life after combination therapy for prostate cancer. The mathematical model of aging for each stage of life has its own parameters identified by the statistical analysis of healthcare data from the Zharinov's databank and Rosstat CDR NES databank. The core of the methodical approach is the statistical correlation between growth rate of the prostate specific antigen level (PSA-level) or the PSA doubling time (PSA DT) before therapy, and lifespan: the higher the PSA DT is, the greater lifespan. The patients were grouped under the «fast PSA DT» and «slow PSA DT» categories. The satisfactory matching between calculations and experiment is shown. The prediction error of group life expectancy is due to the completeness and reliability of the main data source. A detailed monitoring of the basic health indicators throughout the each person life in each analyzed group is required. The absence of this particular information makes it impossible to predict the individual life expectancy.

  15. Role of nutritional status in predicting quality of life outcomes in cancer--a systematic review of the epidemiological literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lis, Christopher G; Gupta, Digant; Lammersfeld, Carolyn A; Markman, Maurie; Vashi, Pankaj G

    2012-04-24

    Malnutrition is a significant factor in predicting cancer patients' quality of life (QoL). We systematically reviewed the literature on the role of nutritional status in predicting QoL in cancer. We searched MEDLINE database using the terms "nutritional status" in combination with "quality of life" together with "cancer". Human studies published in English, having nutritional status as one of the predictor variables, and QoL as one of the outcome measures were included. Of the 26 included studies, 6 investigated head and neck cancer, 8 gastrointestinal, 1 lung, 1 gynecologic and 10 heterogeneous cancers. 24 studies concluded that better nutritional status was associated with better QoL, 1 study showed that better nutritional status was associated with better QoL only in high-risk patients, while 1 study concluded that there was no association between nutritional status and QoL. Nutritional status is a strong predictor of QoL in cancer patients. We recommend that more providers implement the American Society of Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition (ASPEN) guidelines for oncology patients, which includes nutritional screening, nutritional assessment and intervention as appropriate. Correcting malnutrition may improve QoL in cancer patients, an important outcome of interest to cancer patients, their caregivers, and families.

  16. A cross-cultural analysis of posthumous reproduction: The significance of the gender and margins-of-life perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yael Hashiloni-Dolev

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The scholarly discussion of posthumous reproduction (PHR focuses on informed consent and the welfare of the future child, for the most part overlooking cultural differences between societies. Based on a cross-cultural comparison of legal and regulatory documents, analysis of pivotal cases and study of scholarly and media discussions in Israel and Germany, this paper analyses the relevant ethical and policy issues, and questions how cultural differences shape the practice of PHR. The findings challenge the common classifications of PHR by highlighting the gender perspective and adding brain-dead pregnant women to the debate. Based on this study’s findings, four neglected cultural factors affecting social attitudes towards PHR are identified: (i the relationship between the pregnant woman and her future child; (ii what constitutes the beginning of life; (iii what constitutes dying; and (iv the social agent(s seeking to have the future child. The paper argues that PHR can be better understood by adding the gender and margins-of-life perspectives, and that future ethical and practical discussions of this issue could benefit from the criteria emerging from this cross-cultural analysis.

  17. Self-concept clarity and religious orientations: prediction of purpose in life and self-esteem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Błażek, Magdalena; Besta, Tomasz

    2012-09-01

    The present study concerns the relationship between self-concept clarity, religiosity, and well-being, as well as the mediating influence of religiosity on the relationship between self-concept clarity and sense of meaning in life and self-esteem. Self-concept clarity was found to be a significant predictor of sense of meaning in life and self-esteem; intrinsic religious orientation was found to be a predictor of sense of meaning in life, while the quest religious orientation was a predictor for self-esteem. The cross-products of self-concept clarity and intrinsic religious orientation were found to be related to the sense of purpose in life, which would point to religiosity being a mediator of the relationship between self-concept clarity and sense of purpose in life. The cross-products of self-concept clarity and quest religious orientation were found to be a predictor of self-esteem, which indicates a mediating effect of this religious orientation in the relationship of self-concept clarity and self-esteem.

  18. Predicting Negative Life Outcomes from Early Aggressive-Disruptive Behavior Trajectories: Gender Differences in Maladaptation across Life Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Catherine P.; Schaeffer, Cindy M.; Petras, Hanno; Ialongo, Nicholas

    2010-01-01

    Transactional theories of development suggest that displaying high levels of antisocial behavior early in life and persistently over time causes disruption in multiple life domains, which in turn places individuals at risk for negative life outcomes. We used longitudinal data from 1,137 primarily African American urban youth (49.1% female) to…

  19. Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

    2014-03-01

    There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

  20. An adaptive-order particle filter for remaining useful life prediction of aviation piston pumps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tongyang LI

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available An accurate estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL not only contributes to an effective application of an aviation piston pump, but also meets the necessity of condition based maintenance (CBM. For the current RUL evaluation methods, a model-based method is inappropriate for the degradation process of an aviation piston pump due to difficulties of modeling, while a data-based method rarely presents high-accuracy prediction in a long period of time. In this work, an adaptive-order particle filter (AOPF prognostic process is proposed aiming at improving long-term prediction accuracy of RUL by combining both kinds of methods. A dynamic model is initialized by a data-driven or empirical method. When a new observation comes, the prior state distribution is approximated by a current model. The order of the current model is updated adaptively by fusing the information of the observation. Monte Carlo simulation is employed for estimating the posterior probability density function of future states of the pump’s degradation. With updating the order number adaptively, the method presents a higher precision in contrast with those of traditional methods. In a case study, the proposed AOPF method is adopted to forecast the degradation status of an aviation piston pump with experimental return oil flow data, and the analytical results show the effectiveness of the proposed AOPF method. Keywords: Adaptive prognosis, Condition based maintenance (CBM, Particle filter (PF, Piston pump, Remaining useful life (RUL

  1. An analytical method to predict fatigue life of thermoplastics in uniaxial loading: sensitivity to wave type, frequency and stress amplitude

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, R.P.M.; Govaert, L.E.; Meijer, H.E.H.

    2008-01-01

    A method is presented that allows fatigue life predictions on the basis of creep life data. The approach is based on the assumption that the time-dependent failure of polymers is determined by the intrinsic strain softening that is initiated when a critical threshold value of the plastic strain is

  2. Study on predicting residual life of elevator links by fracture mechanics approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Helin; Zhang Yi; Deng Zengjie [China National Petroleum Corp., Xi`an, Shaanxi (China). Tubular Goods Research Center; Jin Dazeng [Xi`an Jiaotong Univ., Xi`an, Shaanxi (China)

    1995-12-31

    On the basis of investigation, failure and fracture analysis of elevator links, residual life prediction of links using fracture mechanics approach is studied, and mechanical properties, fracture toughness value K{sub IC} and fatigue crack propagation rage da/dN of the steel for elevator links are determined. Using the relation between stress intensity factor K{sub I} and the strain-energy release rate, the two-dimensional conversion thickness finite element method has been used to calculate the stress intensity factors K{sub I} for dangerous sections in the ring part of links. Furthermore, the reliability of calculations of the finite element stress intensity factors K{sub I} for dangerous sections of elevator links and the residual life computation for links are verified by fatigue tests of actual links. Finally, the experimental verification of computed results by 150T link fractured at site indicates that the computed critical crack lengths and residual life tally well with those measured and meet the needs of oil drilling.

  3. Towards evaluation and prediction of building sustainability using life cycle behaviour simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzouk Mohamed

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays researchers and practitioners are oriented towards questioning how effective are the different building life cycle activities contribution to preserving the environment and fulfilling the need for equilibrium. Terminologies such as Building sustainability and Green Buildings have long been adopted yet the evaluation of such has been driven through the use of rating systems. LEED of the United States, BREEAM of the United Kingdom, and Pearl of the United Arab Emirates are namely good examples of these rating systems. This paper introduces a new approach for evaluation of building life cycle sustainability through simulation of activities interaction and studying its behaviour. The effort focuses on comprehending impact and effect of suitability related activities over the whole building life cycle or period of time. The methodology includes gathering a pool of parameters through benchmarking of five selected rating systems, analytical factorization for the gathered parameters is used to elect the most influencing parameters. Followed by simulation modelling using System dynamics to capture the interaction of the considered parameters. The resulting behaviour obtained from simulation is studied and used in designing a tool for prediction of sustainability.

  4. Thermal aging of some decommissioned reactor components and methodology for life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, H.M.

    1989-03-01

    Since a realistic aging of cast stainless steel components for end-of-life or life-extension conditions cannot be produced, it is customary to simulate the thermal aging embrittlement by accelerated aging at ∼400 degree C. In this investigation, field components obtained from decommissioned reactors have been examined after service up to 22 yr to provide a benchmark of the laboratory simulation. The primary and secondary aging processes were found to be identical to those of the laboratory-aged specimens, and the kinetic characteristics were also similar. The extent of the aging embrittlement processes and other key factors that are known to influence the embrittlement kinetics have been compared for the decommissioned reactor components and materials aged under accelerated conditions. On the basis of the study, a mechanistic understanding of the causes of the complex behavior in kinetics and activation energy of aging (i.e., the temperature dependence of aging embrittlement between the accelerated and reactor-operating conditions) is presented. A mechanistic correlation developed thereon is compared with a number of available empirical correlations to provide an insight for development of a better methodology of life prediction of the reactor components. 18 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

  5. Robust design and thermal fatigue life prediction of anisotropic conductive film flip chip package

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Hyun Wook

    2004-01-01

    The use of flip-chip technology has many advantages over other approaches for high-density electronic packaging. ACF(Anisotropic Conductive Film) is one of the major flip-chip technologies, which has short chip-to-chip interconnection length, high productivity, and miniaturization of package. In this study, thermal fatigue life of ACF bonding flip-chip package has been predicted. Elastic and thermal properties of ACF were measured by using DMA and TMA. Temperature dependent nonlinear bi-thermal analysis was conducted and the result was compared with Moire interferometer experiment. Calculated displacement field was well matched with experimental result. Thermal fatigue analysis was also conducted. The maximum shear strain occurs at the outmost located bump. Shear stress-strain curve was obtained to calculate fatigue life. Fatigue model for electronic adhesives was used to predict thermal fatigue life of ACF bonding flip-chip packaging. DOE (Design Of Experiment) technique was used to find important design factors. The results show that PCB CTE (Coefficient of Thermal Expansion) and elastic modulus of ACF material are important material parameters. And as important design parameters, chip width, bump pitch and bump width were chose. 2 nd DOE was conducted to obtain RSM equation for the choose 3 design parameter. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) for the calculated RSM equation is 0.99934. Optimum design is conducted using the RSM equation. MMFD (Modified Method for Feasible Direction) algorithm is used to optimum design. The optimum value for chip width, bump pitch and bump width were 7.87mm, 430μm, and 78μm, respectively. Approximately, 1400 cycles have been expected under optimum conditions. Reliability analysis was conducted to find out guideline for control range of design parameter. Sigma value was calculated with changing standard deviation of design variable. To acquire 6 sigma level thermal fatigue reliability, the Std. Deviation of design parameter

  6. A Critical Plane-energy Model for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Haoyang

    A new critical plane-energy model is proposed in this thesis for multiaxial fatigue life prediction of homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. Brief review of existing methods, especially on the critical plane-based and energy-based methods, are given first. Special focus is on one critical plane approach which has been shown to work for both brittle and ductile metals. The key idea is to automatically change the critical plane orientation with respect to different materials and stress states. One potential drawback of the developed model is that it needs an empirical calibration parameter for non-proportional multiaxial loadings since only the strain terms are used and the out-of-phase hardening cannot be considered. The energy-based model using the critical plane concept is proposed with help of the Mroz-Garud hardening rule to explicitly include the effect of non-proportional hardening under fatigue cyclic loadings. Thus, the empirical calibration for non-proportional loading is not needed since the out-of-phase hardening is naturally included in the stress calculation. The model predictions are compared with experimental data from open literature and it is shown the proposed model can work for both proportional and non-proportional loadings without the empirical calibration. Next, the model is extended for the fatigue analysis of heterogeneous materials integrating with finite element method. Fatigue crack initiation of representative volume of heterogeneous materials is analyzed using the developed critical plane-energy model and special focus is on the microstructure effect on the multiaxial fatigue life predictions. Several conclusions and future work is drawn based on the proposed study.

  7. Comparing Structural Identification Methodologies for Fatigue Life Prediction of a Highway Bridge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sai G. S. Pai

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate measurement-data interpretation leads to increased understanding of structural behavior and enhanced asset-management decision making. In this paper, four data-interpretation methodologies, residual minimization, traditional Bayesian model updating, modified Bayesian model updating (with an L∞-norm-based Gaussian likelihood function, and error-domain model falsification (EDMF, a method that rejects models that have unlikely differences between predictions and measurements, are compared. In the modified Bayesian model updating methodology, a correction is used in the likelihood function to account for the effect of a finite number of measurements on posterior probability–density functions. The application of these data-interpretation methodologies for condition assessment and fatigue life prediction is illustrated on a highway steel–concrete composite bridge having four spans with a total length of 219 m. A detailed 3D finite-element plate and beam model of the bridge and weigh-in-motion data are used to obtain the time–stress response at a fatigue critical location along the bridge span. The time–stress response, presented as a histogram, is compared to measured strain responses either to update prior knowledge of model parameters using residual minimization and Bayesian methodologies or to obtain candidate model instances using the EDMF methodology. It is concluded that the EDMF and modified Bayesian model updating methodologies provide robust prediction of fatigue life compared with residual minimization and traditional Bayesian model updating in the presence of correlated non-Gaussian uncertainty. EDMF has additional advantages due to ease of understanding and applicability for practicing engineers, thus enabling incremental asset-management decision making over long service lives. Finally, parallel implementations of EDMF using grid sampling have lower computations times than implementations using adaptive sampling.

  8. Improved Prediction of Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults Through Phase-Dependent Entropy of Daily-Life Walking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Espen A. F. Ihlen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Age and age-related diseases have been suggested to decrease entropy of human gait kinematics, which is thought to make older adults more susceptible to falls. In this study we introduce a new entropy measure, called phase-dependent generalized multiscale entropy (PGME, and test whether this measure improves fall-risk prediction in community-dwelling older adults. PGME can assess phase-dependent changes in the stability of gait dynamics that result from kinematic changes in events such as heel strike and toe-off. PGME was assessed for trunk acceleration of 30 s walking epochs in a re-analysis of 1 week of daily-life activity data from the FARAO study, originally described by van Schooten et al. (2016. The re-analyzed data set contained inertial sensor data from 52 single- and 46 multiple-time prospective fallers in a 6 months follow-up period, and an equal number of non-falling controls matched by age, weight, height, gender, and the use of walking aids. The predictive ability of PGME for falls was assessed using a partial least squares regression. PGME had a superior predictive ability of falls among single-time prospective fallers when compared to the other gait features. The single-time fallers had a higher PGME (p < 0.0001 of their trunk acceleration at 60% of their step cycle when compared with non-fallers. No significant differences were found between PGME of multiple-time fallers and non-fallers, but PGME was found to improve the prediction model of multiple-time fallers when combined with other gait features. These findings suggest that taking into account phase-dependent changes in the stability of the gait dynamics has additional value for predicting falls in older people, especially for single-time prospective fallers.

  9. Prediction of composite fatigue life under variable amplitude loading using artificial neural network trained by genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohman, Muhamad Nur; Hidayat, Mas Irfan P.; Purniawan, Agung

    2018-04-01

    Neural networks (NN) have been widely used in application of fatigue life prediction. In the use of fatigue life prediction for polymeric-base composite, development of NN model is necessary with respect to the limited fatigue data and applicable to be used to predict the fatigue life under varying stress amplitudes in the different stress ratios. In the present paper, Multilayer-Perceptrons (MLP) model of neural network is developed, and Genetic Algorithm was employed to optimize the respective weights of NN for prediction of polymeric-base composite materials under variable amplitude loading. From the simulation result obtained with two different composite systems, named E-glass fabrics/epoxy (layups [(±45)/(0)2]S), and E-glass/polyester (layups [90/0/±45/0]S), NN model were trained with fatigue data from two different stress ratios, which represent limited fatigue data, can be used to predict another four and seven stress ratios respectively, with high accuracy of fatigue life prediction. The accuracy of NN prediction were quantified with the small value of mean square error (MSE). When using 33% from the total fatigue data for training, the NN model able to produce high accuracy for all stress ratios. When using less fatigue data during training (22% from the total fatigue data), the NN model still able to produce high coefficient of determination between the prediction result compared with obtained by experiment.

  10. Minimotif Miner 3.0: database expansion and significantly improved reduction of false-positive predictions from consensus sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Tian; Merlin, Jerlin Camilus; Deverasetty, Sandeep; Gryk, Michael R; Bill, Travis J; Brooks, Andrew W; Lee, Logan Y; Rathnayake, Viraj; Ross, Christian A; Sargeant, David P; Strong, Christy L; Watts, Paula; Rajasekaran, Sanguthevar; Schiller, Martin R

    2012-01-01

    Minimotif Miner (MnM available at http://minimotifminer.org or http://mnm.engr.uconn.edu) is an online database for identifying new minimotifs in protein queries. Minimotifs are short contiguous peptide sequences that have a known function in at least one protein. Here we report the third release of the MnM database which has now grown 60-fold to approximately 300,000 minimotifs. Since short minimotifs are by their nature not very complex we also summarize a new set of false-positive filters and linear regression scoring that vastly enhance minimotif prediction accuracy on a test data set. This online database can be used to predict new functions in proteins and causes of disease.

  11. Coupling between cracking and permeability, a model for structure service life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lasne, M.; Gerard, B.; Breysse, D.

    1993-01-01

    Many authors have chosen permeability coefficients (permeation, diffusion) as a reference for material durability and for structure service life prediction. When we look for designing engineered barriers for radioactive waste storage we find these macroscopic parameters very essential. In order to work with a predictive model of transfer properties evolution in a porous media (concrete, mortar, rock) we introduce a 'micro-macro' hierarchical model of permeability whose data are the total porosity and the pore size distribution. In spite of the simplicity of the model (very small CPU time consuming) comparative studies show predictive results for sound cement pastes, mortars and concretes. Associated to these works we apply a model of damage due to hydration processes at early ages to a container as a preliminary underproject for the definitive storage of Low Level radioactive Waste (LLW). Data are geometry, cement properties and damage measurement of concrete. This model takes into account the mechanical property of the concrete maturation (volumic variations during cement hydration can damage the structures). Some local microcracking can appear and affect the long term durability. Following these works we introduce our research program for the concrete cracking analysis. An experimental campaign is designed in order to determine damage-cracking-porosity-permeability coupling. (authors). 12 figs., 16 refs

  12. "Engage" therapy: Prediction of change of late-life major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexopoulos, George S; O'Neil, Robert; Banerjee, Samprit; Raue, Patrick J; Victoria, Lindsay W; Bress, Jennifer N; Pollari, Cristina; Arean, Patricia A

    2017-10-15

    Engage grew out of the need for streamlined psychotherapies that can be accurately used by community therapists in late-life depression. Engage was based on the view that dysfunction of reward networks is the principal mechanism mediating depressive symptoms. Accordingly, Engage uses "reward exposure" (exposure to meaningful activities) and assumes that repeated activation of reward networks will normalize these systems. This study examined whether change in a behavioral activation scale, an index of reward system function, predicts change in depressive symptomatology. The participants (N = 48) were older adults with major depression treated with 9 weekly sessions of Engage and assessed 27 weeks after treatment. Depression was assessed with the 24-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D) and behavioral activation with the four subscales of Behavioral Activation for Depression Scale (activation, avoidance/rumination, work impairment, social impairment) at baseline, 6 weeks (mid-treatment), 9 weeks (end of treatment), and 36 weeks. Change only in the Activation subscale during successive periods of assessment predicted depression severity (HAM-D) at the end of each period (F 1, 47 = 21.05, psocial support. Change in behavioral activation predicts improvement of depressive symptoms and signs in depressed older adults treated with Engage. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. A Hybrid Prognostic Approach for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-An Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-ion battery is a core component of many systems such as satellite, spacecraft, and electric vehicles and its failure can lead to reduced capability, downtime, and even catastrophic breakdowns. Remaining useful life (RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries before the future failure event is extremely crucial for proactive maintenance/safety actions. This study proposes a hybrid prognostic approach that can predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries using physical laws and data-driven modeling simultaneously. In this hybrid prognostic approach, the relevant vectors obtained with the selective kernel ensemble-based relevance vector machine (RVM learning algorithm are fitted to the physical degradation model, which is then extrapolated to failure threshold for estimating the RUL of the lithium-ion battery of interest. The experimental results indicated that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach can accurately predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries. Empirical comparisons show that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach using the selective kernel ensemble-based RVM learning algorithm performs better than the hybrid prognostic approaches using the popular learning algorithms of feedforward artificial neural networks (ANNs like the conventional backpropagation (BP algorithm and support vector machines (SVMs. In addition, an investigation is also conducted to identify the effects of RVM learning algorithm on the proposed hybrid prognostic approach.

  14. Recent developments on SMA actuators: predicting the actuation fatigue life for variable loading schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Robert W.; Lagoudas, Dimitris C.

    2017-04-01

    Shape memory alloys (SMAs), due to their ability to repeatably recover substantial deformations under applied mechanical loading, have the potential to impact the aerospace, automotive, biomedical, and energy industries as weight and volume saving replacements for conventional actuators. While numerous applications of SMA actuators have been flight tested and can be found in industrial applications, these actuators are generally limited to non-critical components, are not widely implemented and frequently one-off designs, and are generally overdesigned due to a lack of understanding of the effect of the loading path on the fatigue life and the lack of an accurate method for predicting actuator lifetimes. In recent years, multiple research efforts have increased our understanding of the actuation fatigue process of SMAs. These advances can be utilized to predict the fatigue lives and failure loads in SMA actuators. Additionally, these prediction methods can be implemented in order to intelligently design actuators in accordance with their fatigue and failure limits. In the following paper, both simple and complex thermomechanical loading paths have been considered. Experimental data was utilized from two material systems: equiatomic Nickel-Titanium and Nickelrich Nickel-Titanium.

  15. Remaining life prediction of I and C cables for reliability assessment of NPP systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhosh, T.V.; Ghosh, A.K.; Fernandes, B.G.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A framework for time dependent reliability prediction of I and C cables for use in PSA of NPP has been developed using stress–strength interference theory. ► The proposed methodology has been illustrated with the accelerated thermal aging data on a typical XLPE cable. ► The behavior of insulation resistance when the degradation process is linear or exponential has also been modeled. ► The reliability index or probability of failure obtained from this approach can be used in system reliability evaluation to account for cable aging for PSA of NPP. - Abstract: Instrumentation and control (I and C) cables are one of the most important components in nuclear power plants (NPPs) because they provide power to safety-related equipment and also to transmit signals to and from various controllers to perform safety operations. I and C cables in NPP are subjected to a variety of aging and degradation stressors that can produce immediate degradation or aging-related mechanisms causing the degradation of cable components over time. Although, there exits several life estimation techniques, currently there is no any standard methodology or an approach toward estimating the time dependent reliability of I and C cables that can be directly used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) applications. Hence, the objective of this study is to develop an approach to estimate and confirm the continued acceptable margin in cable insulation life over time subjected to aging. This paper presents a framework based on the structural reliability theory to quantify the life time of I and C cable subjecting to thermal aging. Since cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cables are extensively being used in Indian NPPs, the remaining life time evaluations have been carried out for a typical XLPE cable. However, the methodology can be extended to other cables such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene propylene rubber (EPR), etc.

  16. Prediction of creep-fatigue life by use of creep rupture ductility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, Koji; Suzuki, Naoyuki; Ijima, Kiyoshi; Kanazawa, Kenji

    1985-01-01

    It was clarified that tension strain hold reduced creep-fatigue life of many engineering materials in different degrees depending on material, temperature and test duration. However the reduction in the life due to holding for various durations could be correlated to the fraction of intergranular facets on fracture surfaces which was considered to be an index of the damage introduced during strain hold. This fraction of intergranular facets by creep-fatigue failure exhibited a direct relation to the creep rupture ductility of the material tested at the same temperature and for the same creep-fatigue life-time. From these results an empirical equation has been derived as follow; (Δ sub(epsilonsub(i)))/Dsub(c).(N sub(h sup(α))) = C, where Δ sub(epsilonsub(i)) is inelastic strain range, Dsub(c) is the creep rupture ductility for the same duration as creep-fatigue life time, Nsub(h) is the creep-fatigue life under tension strain hold conditions, and α and C are constants depending on the material and testing temperature. From the equation the life prediction is possible for a given inelastic strain range Δ sub(epsilonsub(i)) if the constants α and C, and Dsub(c) are known. The value of α was found to be 0.62 and 0.74 for various austenitic stainless steels and NCF800 at 600 0 C and 700 0 C, respectively, and 0.69 for 1 1/4Cr-1/2Mo steel at 600 0 C. The value of C was found to be 0.50 and 0.59 for various austenitic stainless steels and NCF800 at 600 0 C and 700 0 C, respectively, and 0.49 for 1 1/4Cr-1/2Mo steel at 600 0 C. The creep rupture ductility Dsub(c) is available in the NRIM Creep Data Sheets up to 10 5 h for multi-heats of many kinds of heat resistant alloys. (author)

  17. A prediction score for significant coronary artery disease in Chinese patients ≥50 years old referred for rheumatic valvular heart disease surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhenjun; Pan, Jun; Chen, Tao; Zhou, Qing; Wang, Qiang; Cao, Hailong; Fan, Fudong; Luo, Xuan; Ge, Min; Wang, Dongjin

    2018-04-01

    Our goal was to establish a prediction score and protocol for the preoperative prediction of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with rheumatic valvular heart disease. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, we validated the model based on 490 patients without a history of myocardial infarction and who underwent preoperative screening coronary angiography. Significant CAD was defined as ≥50% narrowing of the diameter of the lumen of the left main coronary artery or ≥70% narrowing of the diameter of the lumen of the left anterior descending coronary artery, left circumflex artery or right coronary artery. Significant CAD was present in 9.8% of patients. Age, smoking, diabetes mellitus, diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and ischaemia evident on an electrocardiogram were independently associated with significant CAD and were entered into the multivariate model. According to the logistic regression predictive risk score, preoperative coronary angiography is recommended in (i) postmenopausal women between 50 and 59 years of age with ≥9.1% logistic regression predictive risk score; (ii) postmenopausal women who are ≥60 years old with a logistic regression predictive risk score ≥6.6% and (iii) men ≥50 years old whose logistic regression predictive risk score was ≥2.8%. Based on this predictive model, 246 (50.2%) preoperative coronary angiograms could be safely avoided. The negative predictive value of the model was 98.8% (246 of 249). This model was accurate for the preoperative prediction of significant CAD in patients with rheumatic valvular heart disease. This model must be validated in larger cohorts and various populations.

  18. A New Approach to Predict the Fish Fillet Shelf-Life in Presence of Natural Preservative Agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuffrida, Alessandro; Giarratana, Filippo; Valenti, Davide; Muscolino, Daniele; Parisi, Roberta; Parco, Alessio; Marotta, Stefania; Ziino, Graziella; Panebianco, Antonio

    2017-04-13

    Three data sets concerning the behaviour of spoilage flora of fillets treated with natural preservative substances (NPS) were used to construct a new kind of mathematical predictive model. This model, unlike other ones, allows expressing the antibacterial effect of the NPS separately from the prediction of the growth rate. This approach, based on the introduction of a parameter into the predictive primary model, produced a good fitting of observed data and allowed characterising quantitatively the increase of shelf-life of fillets.

  19. Quality of Life for Individuals with Hearing Impairment Who Have Not Consulted for Services and Their Significant Others: Same- and Different-Sex Couples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Rebecca J.; Atcherson, Samuel R.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this exploratory study was to assess perceptions of quality of life for individuals with hearing impairment who have not consulted for services and their significant others who are in same-sex relationships vs. those who are in different-sex relationships. Data were collected on a total of 20 older couples: 10 in same-sex…

  20. Prediction of pavement remaining service life based on repetition of load and permanent deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usman, R. S.; Setyawan, A.; Suprapto, M.

    2018-03-01

    One of the methods which was applied in the assessment of flexible pavement performance was mechanistic method assuming structures of road pavement to become multi-layer structure for flexible pavement, that the vehicle load working on the pavement layer under repetition with power failure worth 1 (one) unit which was assumed as evenly distributed static load, and therefore the pavement material would provide response in the form of stress, strain, and deflection. This is closely related in order to assess the structure of flexible pavement and to predict the remaining service life on the roads of Pulau Indah sta 0 + 000 to sta. 0 + 845 in Kota Kupang, Nusa Tenggara Timur. The performance appraisal indicator which was used was fatigue cracking happening bottom of the asphalt layer and permanent deformation (rutting) on the surface of subgrade. The strain estimate on the flexible pavement layer structure needs carefulness and high accuracy and therefore a software like KENPAVE which produces horizontal tensile strain of 8,802E-05 and vertical compressive strain of 2,642E-04 was used. By applying equation of The Asphalt Instituteit was obtained repetition of permit load when reaching fatigue cracking (Nf) was 16.071.516 ESAL and permanent deformation (rutting) was 14.703.867 ESAL and also it was predicted the remaining service life of pavement applied the equation of AASTHO 1993 by considering Traffic Multiplier factor (TM 1.8, TM 1.9 and TM 2.0) obtained the remaining life service due to fatigue of 5.51% in the year of 13th (TM 1.8), 7.95% in the year of12th (TM 1.9) and 3.11% (TM 2.0) in the year of 12th, also the remaining service life due to rutting of 4.69% in the year of 12th(TM 1.8), 7.79% in the year of 11th (TM 1.9), and 2.94 in the year of 11th (TM 2.0).

  1. Is body shame a significant mediator of the relationship between mindfulness skills and the quality of life of treatment-seeking children and adolescents with overweight and obesity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Helena; Canavarro, Maria Cristina

    2017-03-01

    This study aimed to examine (a) whether mindfulness skills were associated with higher quality of life through lower body shame for treatment-seeking children/adolescents with overweight and obesity and (b) whether this indirect effect was moderated by children/adolescents' age and gender. The sample included 153 children/adolescents with overweight/obesity followed in individual nutrition consultations. Participants completed self-report measures of mindfulness, body shame, and quality of life. Moderated mediation analyses showed that higher levels of mindfulness were associated with better perceived quality of life through lower body shame, but only among girls. For boys, higher levels of body shame did not translate into a poorer perception of quality of life, and the indirect effect of mindfulness on quality of life via lower body shame was not significant. These results suggest that body shame is an important mechanism to explain why mindfulness may help girls with overweight/obesity perceive a better quality of life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Metabotypes with properly functioning mitochondria and anti-inflammation predict extended productive life span in dairy cows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, K.; Dänicke, S.; Rehage, J.; Sauerwein, H.; Otto, W.; Rolle-Kampczyk, U.; von Bergen, M.

    2016-01-01

    The failure to adapt metabolism to the homeorhetic demands of lactation is considered as a main factor in reducing the productive life span of dairy cows. The so far defined markers of production performance and metabolic health in dairy cows do not predict the length of productive life span satisfyingly. This study aimed to identify novel pathways and biomarkers related to productive life in dairy cows by means of (targeted) metabolomics. In a longitudinal study from 42 days before up to 100 days after parturition, we identified metabolites such as long-chain acylcarnitines and biogenic amines associated with extended productive life spans. These metabolites are mainly secreted by the liver and depend on the functionality of hepatic mitochondria. The concentrations of biogenic amines and some acylcarnitines differed already before the onset of lactation thus indicating their predictive potential for continuation or early ending of productive life. PMID:27089826

  3. The influence of mood on the perception of hearing-loss related quality of life in people with hearing loss and their significant others.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preminger, Jill E; Meeks, Suzanne

    2010-04-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the congruent/incongruent perceptions of hearing-loss related quality of life between members of couples and to determine how incongruence was affected by individual psychosocial characteristics, specifically measures of mood (negative affect and positive affect), stress, and communication in the marriage. An exploratory correlational analysis was performed on data for 52 couples in which only one member had a hearing loss. In the regression analyses the independent variables were hearing-loss related quality of life scores measured in people with hearing loss, measured in significant others, and differences in hearing-loss related quality of life among members of a couple. The results demonstrate that both in people with hearing loss and their significant others, perceptions of hearing-loss related quality of life is highly correlated with negative mood scores. Incongruence in hearing-loss related quality of life scores reported by members of a couple were highly correlated with negative affect measured within each individual. Future research evaluating the effectiveness of audiologic rehabilitation can use measures of mood as an outcome variable.

  4. Availability and mean life time prediction of multistage degraded system with partial repairs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Hoang; Suprasad, A.; Misra, R.B.

    1997-01-01

    In some environments, components might not always fail fully, but can degrade, and there can be multiple stages of degradation. In such cases, the efficiency of the system may decrease. After a certain stage of degradation the efficiency of the system may decrease to an unacceptable limit and can be considered as a total failure. However, the system can fail randomly from any stage. and can be repaired. Further, the repair action cannot bring the system to the good stage, but can make it operational and the failure rate of the system will, therefore, remain the same as before the failure. In this study, we present a model for predicting the reliability, availability, mean life time, and mean time to first failure of multistage degraded systems with partial repairs. In the analysis, state dependent transition rates for the degradation process, as well as repair processes, are considered. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the results

  5. Bayesian techniques for fatigue life prediction and for inference in linear time dependent PDEs

    KAUST Repository

    Scavino, Marco

    2016-01-08

    In this talk we introduce first the main characteristics of a systematic statistical approach to model calibration, model selection and model ranking when stress-life data are drawn from a collection of records of fatigue experiments. Focusing on Bayesian prediction assessment, we consider fatigue-limit models and random fatigue-limit models under different a priori assumptions. In the second part of the talk, we present a hierarchical Bayesian technique for the inference of the coefficients of time dependent linear PDEs, under the assumption that noisy measurements are available in both the interior of a domain of interest and from boundary conditions. We present a computational technique based on the marginalization of the contribution of the boundary parameters and apply it to inverse heat conduction problems.

  6. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-21

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  7. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  8. Addendum to the article: Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: Would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundschuh, Mirco; Newman, Michael C; Zubrod, Jochen P; Seitz, Frank; Rosenfeldt, Ricki R; Schulz, Ralf

    2015-03-01

    We argued recently that the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) are valuable metrics to include during null hypothesis significance testing: They inform the researcher about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes actually being true. Although commonly misunderstood, a reported p value estimates only the probability of obtaining the results or more extreme results if the null hypothesis of no effect was true. Calculations of the more informative PPV and NPV require a priori estimate of the probability (R). The present document discusses challenges of estimating R.

  9. Predicting the natural mortality of marine fish from life history characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gislason, Henrik

    For fish much of the life history is determined by body size. Body size and asymptotic size significantly influences important life history processes such as growth, maturity, egg production, and natural mortality. Futhermore, for a population to persist, offspring must be able to replace...... their parents on a one-for-one basis in the long run. Otherwise the population would either increase exponentially or become extinct. Combining data on growth and specific fecundity in a size-based fish community model of the North Sea and using the requirement of a one-for-one replacement provides...... the information necessary to estimate the scaling of natural mortality with size and asymptotic size. The estimated scaling is compared with output from multispecies fish stock models, with the empirical scaling of the maximum number of recruits per unit of spawning stock biomass with body size...

  10. Only 7% of the variation in feed efficiency in veal calves can be predicted from variation in feeding motivation, digestion, metabolism, immunology, and behavioral traits in early life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, M S; van den Borne, J J G C; van Reenen, C G; Gerrits, W J J

    2017-10-01

    High interindividual variation in growth performance is commonly observed in veal calf production and appears to depend on milk replacer (MR) composition. Our first objective was to examine whether variation in growth performance in healthy veal calves can be predicted from early life characterization of these calves. Our second objective was to determine whether these predictions differ between calves that are fed a high- or low-lactose MR in later life. A total of 180 male Holstein-Friesian calves arrived at the facilities at 17 ± 3.4 d of age, and blood samples were collected before the first feeding. Subsequently, calves were characterized in the following 9 wk (period 1) using targeted challenges related to traits within each of 5 categories: feeding motivation, digestion, postabsorptive metabolism, behavior and stress, and immunology. In period 2 (wk 10-26), 130 calves were equally divided over 2 MR treatments: a control MR that contained lactose as the only carbohydrate source and a low-lactose MR in which 51% of the lactose was isocalorically replaced by glucose, fructose, and glycerol (2:1:2 ratio). Relations between early life characteristics and growth performance in later life were assessed in 117 clinically healthy calves. Average daily gain (ADG) in period 2 tended to be greater for control calves (1,292 ± 111 g/d) than for calves receiving the low-lactose MR (1,267 ± 103 g/d). Observations in period 1 were clustered per category using principal component analysis, and the resulting principal components were used to predict performance in period 2 using multiple regression procedures. Variation in observations in period 1 predicted 17% of variation in ADG in period 2. However, this was mainly related to variation in solid feed refusals. When ADG was adjusted to equal solid feed intake, only 7% of the variation in standardized ADG in period 2, in fact reflecting feed efficiency, could be explained by early life measurements. This indicates that >90

  11. Significant correlation between spleen volume and thrombocytopenia in liver transplant patients: a concept for predicting persistent thrombocytopenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohira, Masahiro; Ishifuro, Minoru; Ide, Kentaro; Irei, Toshimitsu; Tashiro, Hirotaka; Itamoto, Toshiyuki; Ito, Katsuhide; Chayama, Kazuaki; Asahara, Toshimasa; Ohdan, Hideki

    2009-02-01

    Interferon (IFN) therapy with or without ribavirin treatment is well established as a standard antiviral treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients. However, susceptibility to thrombocytopenia is a major obstacle for initiating or continuing this therapy, particularly in liver transplant (LTx) recipients with HCV. Studies have reported that splenectomy performed concurrently with LTx is a feasible strategy for conditioning patients for anti-HCV IFN therapy. However, the relationship between the severity of splenomegaly and alterations in the blood cytopenia in LTx recipients remains to be clarified. Here, we analyzed the relationship between spleen volume (SV) and thrombocytopenia in 45 patients who underwent LTx at Hiroshima University Hospital. The extent of pre-LTx splenomegaly [the SV to body surface area (BSA) ratio in an individual] was inversely correlated with both the post-LTx white blood cell count and platelet (PLT) count (P or= 400), persistent thrombocytopenia is predictable after LTx. (c) 2009 AASLD.

  12. Comparison of LIFE-4 and TEMECH code predictions with TREAT transient test data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gneiting, B.C.; Bard, F.E.; Hunter, C.W.

    1984-09-01

    Transient tests in the TREAT reactor were performed on FFTF Reference design mixed-oxide fuel pins, most of which had received prior steady-state irradiation in the EBR-II reactor. These transient test results provide a data base for calibration and verification of fuel performance codes and for evaluation of processes that affect pin damage during transient events. This paper presents a comparison of the LIFE-4 and TEMECH fuel pin thermal/mechanical analysis codes with the results from 20 HEDL TREAT experiments, ten of which resulted in pin failure. Both the LIFE-4 and TEMECH codes provided an adequate representation of the thermal and mechanical data from the TREAT experiments. Also, a criterion for 50% probability of pin failure was developed for each code using an average cumulative damage fraction value calculated for the pins that failed. Both codes employ the two major cladding loading mechanisms of differential thermal expansion and central cavity pressurization which were demonstrated by the test results. However, a detailed evaluation of the code predictions shows that the two code systems weigh the loading mechanism differently to reach the same end points of the TREAT transient results

  13. TBCs for Gas Turbines under Thermomechanical Loadings: Failure Behaviour and Life Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herzog R.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The present contribution gives an overview about recent research on a thermal barrier coating (TBC system consisted of (i an intermetallic MCrAlY-alloy Bondcoat (BC applied by vacuum plasma spraying (VPS and (ii an Yttria Stabilised Zirconia (YSZ top coat air plasma sprayed (APS at Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute of Energy and Climate Research (IEK-1. The influence of high temperature dwell time, maximum and minimum temperature on crack growth kinetics during thermal cycling of such plasma sprayed TBCs is investigated using infrared pulse thermography (IT, acoustic emission (AE analysis and scanning electron microscopy. Thermocyclic life in terms of accumulated time at maximum temperature decreases with increasing high temperature dwell time and increases with increasing minimum temperature. AE analysis proves that crack growth mainly occurs during cooling at temperatures below the ductile-to-brittle transition temperature of the BC. Superimposed mechanical load cycles accelerate delamination crack growth and, in case of sufficiently high mechanical loadings, result in premature fatigue failure of the substrate. A life prediction model based on TGO growth kinetics and a fracture mechanics approach has been developed which accounts for the influence of maximum and minimum temperature as well as of high temperature dwell time with good accuracy in an extremely wide parameter range.

  14. Lower levels of maternal capital in early life predict offspring obesity in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Meghan T; Lohman, Brenda J; Neppl, Tricia K

    2017-05-01

    As of 2013, 65% of the world's population lived in countries where overweight/obesity kills more people than being underweight. Evolutionary perspectives provide a holistic understanding of both how and why obesity develops and its long-term implications. To test whether the maternal capital hypothesis, an evolutionary perspective, is viable for explaining the development of obesity in adulthood. Restricted-use data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health; n = 11 403) was analysed using logistic regressions. The sample included adolescents and their biological mothers. The odds of obesity in adulthood increased by 22% for every standard deviation increase in lack of maternal capital (Exp (B) = 1.22, p obese in adulthood, even after controlling for other factors in infancy, adolescence and adulthood. The results showed that those whose mothers had lower capital were more prone to later life disease (specifically, obesity). The maternal capital perspective is useful for explaining how and why early life characteristics (including maternal resources) predict obesity in adulthood. Implications of the findings are discussed.

  15. Satellite Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Cycle Life Prediction with Novel Indirect Health Indicator Extraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haitao Liao

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Prognostics and remaining useful life (RUL estimation for lithium-ion batteries play an important role in intelligent battery management systems (BMS. The capacity is often used as the fade indicator for estimating the remaining cycle life of a lithium-ion battery. For spacecraft requiring high reliability and long lifetime, in-orbit RUL estimation and reliability verification on ground should be carefully addressed. However, it is quite challenging to monitor and estimate the capacity of a lithium-ion battery on-line in satellite applications. In this work, a novel health indicator (HI is extracted from the operating parameters of a lithium-ion battery to quantify battery degradation. Moreover, the Grey Correlation Analysis (GCA is utilized to evaluate the similarities between the extracted HI and the battery’s capacity. The result illustrates the effectiveness of using this new HI for fading indication. Furthermore, we propose an optimized ensemble monotonic echo state networks (En_MONESN algorithm, in which the monotonic constraint is introduced to improve the adaptivity of degradation trend estimation, and ensemble learning is integrated to achieve high stability and precision of RUL prediction. Experiments with actual testing data show the efficiency of our proposed method in RUL estimation and degradation modeling for the satellite lithium-ion battery application.

  16. Should solar photovoltaics be deployed sooner because of long operating life at low, predictable cost?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zweibel, Ken

    2010-01-01

    Governments subsidize the deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV) because PV is deployed for societal purposes. About seven thousand megawatts were deployed in 2009 and over 10,000 are expected in 2010. Yet this is too slow to strongly affect energy and environmental challenges. Faster societal deployment is slowed because PV is perceived to be too costly. Classic economic evaluations would put PV electricity in the range of 15-50 c/kWh, depending on local sunlight and system size. But PV has an unusual, overlooked value: systems can last for a very long time with almost no operating costs, much like, e.g., the Hoover Dam. This long life is rarely taken into account. The private sector cannot use it because far-future cash flow does not add to asset value. But we should not be evaluating PV by business metrics. Governments already make up the difference in return on investment needed to deploy PV. PV deployment is government infrastructure development or direct purchases. Thus the question is: Does the usually unevaluated aspect of long life at predictably low operating costs further motivate governments to deploy more PV, sooner?

  17. Attachment Style Predicts Affect, Cognitive Appraisals, and Social Functioning in Daily Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara eSheinbaum

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The way in which attachment styles are expressed in the moment as individuals navigate their real-life settings has remained an area largely untapped by attachment research. The present study examined how adult attachment styles are expressed in daily life using Experience Sampling Methodology (ESM in a sample of 206 Spanish young adults. Participants were administered the Attachment Style Interview and received personal digital assistants that signaled them randomly eight times per day for one week to complete questionnaires about their current experiences and social context. As hypothesized, participants’ momentary affective states, cognitive appraisals, and social functioning varied in meaningful ways as a function of their attachment style. Individuals with an anxious attachment, as compared with securely attached individuals, endorsed experiences that were congruent with hyperactivating tendencies, such as higher negative affect, stress, and perceived social rejection. By contrast, individuals with an avoidant attachment, relative to individuals with a secure attachment, endorsed experiences that were consistent with deactivating tendencies, such as decreased positive states and a decreased desire to be with others when alone. Furthermore, the expression of attachment styles in social contexts was shown to be dependent upon the subjective appraisal of the closeness of social contacts, and not merely upon the presence of social interactions. The findings support the ecological validity of the Attachment Style Interview and the person-by-situation character of attachment theory. Moreover, they highlight the utility of ESM for investigating how the predictions derived from attachment theory play out in the natural flow of real life.

  18. Arrhenius equation modeling for the shelf life prediction of tomato paste containing a natural preservative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafari, Seid Mahdi; Ganje, Mohammad; Dehnad, Danial; Ghanbari, Vahid; Hajitabar, Javad

    2017-12-01

    The shelf life of tomato paste with microencapsulated olive leaf extract was compared with that of samples containing a commercial preservative by accelerated shelf life testing. Based on previous studies showing that olive leaf extract as a rich source of phenolic compounds can have antimicrobial properties, application of its encapsulated form to improve the storage stability of tomato paste is proposed here. Regarding total soluble solids, the control and the sample containing 1000 µg g -1 sodium benzoate had the lowest (Q 10  = 1.63) and highest (Q 10  = 1.88) sensitivity to temperature changes respectively; also, the microencapsulated sample containing 1000 µg g -1 encapsulated olive leaf extract (Q 10  = 1.83) followed the sample containing 1000 µg g -1 sodium benzoate in terms of the highest kinetic rates. In the case of consistency, the lowest and highest activation energies (E a ) corresponded to samples containing 1000 µg g -1 non-encapsulated olive leaf extract and 1000 µg g -1 microencapsulated olive leaf extract respectively. Interestingly, samples containing microencapsulated olive leaf extract could maintain the original quality of the tomato paste very well, while those with non-encapsulated olive leaf extract rated the worst performance (among all specimens) in terms of maintaining their quality indices for a long time period. Overall, the shelf life equation was able to predict the consistency index of all tomato paste samples during long-time storage with high precision. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  19. Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Peng, Weiwen; Wang, Hai-Kun; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs. - Highlights: • A probabilistic PoF-based framework for fatigue life prediction is proposed. • A comprehensive procedure forquantifyingmultiple types of uncertaintyis presented. • The factors that contribute most to the resulting output uncertainty are identified. • The proposed frameworkdemonstrates high prediction accuracybyfull-scale tests.

  20. Volunteering to Care for People with Severe Mental Illness: A Qualitative Study of the Significance of Professional and Private Life Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ørtenblad, Lisbeth; Væggemose, Ulla; Gissel, Lene; Nissen, Nina Konstantin

    2018-02-06

    Challenges in recruiting volunteers encountered by psychiatric services are barely elucidated despite a general societal increase in volunteering. The aim of the study was to explore the significance of professional and private life experiences in willingness to volunteer to care for people with severe mental illness. Focus group interviews with volunteers in the Community Family Programme was conducted, followed by thematic analysis. All interviewees had professional and/or private experience of SMI, which had a major influence on their initial willingness to volunteer. Volunteering was an opportunity to pass on their experiences and to care for SMI people in ways that were not possible in their professions. The interviewees did not distinguish between the influences of professional and/or private life experiences on their willingness to volunteer. The study demonstrates the importance of professional and/or private life experiences in initial considerations about volunteering for mental health care. The consequences for recruitment practices are discussed.

  1. Taylor Series-Based Long-Term Creep-Life Prediction of Alloy 617

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, Song Nan; Kim, Woo Gon; Kim, Yong Wan; Park, Jae Young; Kim, Soen Jin

    2010-01-01

    In this study, a Taylor series (T-S) model based on the Arrhenius, McVetty, and Monkman-Grant equations was developed using a mathematical analysis. In order to reduce fitting errors, the McVetty equation was transformed by considering the first three terms of the Taylor series equation. The model parameters were accurately determined by a statistical technique of maximum likelihood estimation, and this model was applied to the creep data of alloy 617. The T-S model results showed better agreement with the experimental data than other models such as the Eno, exponential, and L-M models. In particular, the T-S model was converted into an isothermal Taylor series (IT-S) model that can predict the creep strength at a given temperature. It was identified that the estimations obtained using the converted ITS model was better than that obtained using the T-S model for predicting the long-term creep life of alloy 617

  2. A Combined High and Low Cycle Fatigue Model for Life Prediction of Turbine Blades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shun-Peng Zhu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Combined high and low cycle fatigue (CCF generally induces the failure of aircraft gas turbine attachments. Based on the aero-engine load spectrum, accurate assessment of fatigue damage due to the interaction of high cycle fatigue (HCF resulting from high frequency vibrations and low cycle fatigue (LCF from ground-air-ground engine cycles is of critical importance for ensuring structural integrity of engine components, like turbine blades. In this paper, the influence of combined damage accumulation on the expected CCF life are investigated for turbine blades. The CCF behavior of a turbine blade is usually studied by testing with four load-controlled parameters, including high cycle stress amplitude and frequency, and low cycle stress amplitude and frequency. According to this, a new damage accumulation model is proposed based on Miner’s rule to consider the coupled damage due to HCF-LCF interaction by introducing the four load parameters. Five experimental datasets of turbine blade alloys and turbine blades were introduced for model validation and comparison between the proposed Miner, Manson-Halford, and Trufyakov-Kovalchuk models. Results show that the proposed model provides more accurate predictions than others with lower mean and standard deviation values of model prediction errors.

  3. Quality of life related to health chronic kidney disease: Predictive importance of mood and somatic symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perales Montilla, Carmen M; Duschek, Stefan; Reyes Del Paso, Gustavo A

    2016-01-01

    To compare the predictive capacity of self-reported somatic symptoms and mood (depression and anxiety) on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients with chronic renal disease. Data were obtained from 52 patients undergoing haemodialysis. Measures included a) the SF-36 health survey, b) the somatic symptoms scale revised (ESS-R) and c) the hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS). Multiple regression was the main method of statistical analysis. Patients exhibited HRQOL levels below normative values, with anxiety and depression prevalence at 36.5% and 27%, respectively. Mood was the strongest predictor of physical (β=-.624) and mental (β=-.709) HRQOL. Somatic symptoms were also associated with physical HRQOL, but their predictive value was weaker (β=-.270). These results indicate that mood is a superior predictor of the physical and mental components of HRQOL in patients compared with the number and severity of physical symptoms. The data underline the importance of assessing negative emotional states (depression and anxiety) in kidney patients as a basis for intervention, which may facilitate reduction of the impact of chronic renal disease on HRQOL. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  4. Remaining useful life prediction based on the Wiener process for an aviation axial piston pump

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingjian Wang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available An aviation hydraulic axial piston pump’s degradation from comprehensive wear is a typical gradual failure model. Accurate wear prediction is difficult as random and uncertain characteristics must be factored into the estimation. The internal wear status of the axial piston pump is characterized by the return oil flow based on fault mechanism analysis of the main frictional pairs in the pump. The performance degradation model is described by the Wiener process to predict the remaining useful life (RUL of the pump. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE is performed by utilizing the expectation maximization (EM algorithm to estimate the initial parameters of the Wiener process while recursive estimation is conducted utilizing the Kalman filter method to estimate the drift coefficient of the Wiener process. The RUL of the pump is then calculated according to the performance degradation model based on the Wiener process. Experimental results indicate that the return oil flow is a suitable characteristic for reflecting the internal wear status of the axial piston pump, and thus the Wiener process-based method may effectively predicate the RUL of the pump.

  5. Size matters: Installed maximal unit size predicts market life cycles of electricity generation technologies and systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, N.

    2008-01-01

    The electricity generation technologies and systems are complex and change in very dynamic fashions, with a multitude of energy sources and prime movers. Since an important concept in generator design is the 'economies of scale', we discover that the installed maximal unit size (capacity) of the generators is a key 'envelope-pushing' characteristic with logistical behaviors. The logistical wavelet analysis of the max unit sizes for different fuels and prime movers, and the cumulative capacities, reveals universal quantitative features in the aggregate evolution of the power industry. We extract the transition times of the max sizes (spanning 10-90% of the saturation limits) for different technologies and systems, and discover that the max size saturation in the 90-99% range precedes the saturation of cumulative capacities of the corresponding systems in the US. While these universal laws are still empirical, they give us a simple yet elegant framework to examine the evolution of the power industry and markets in predictive, not just descriptive, terms. Such laws give us a quantitative tool to spot trends and predict future development, invaluable in planning and resource allocation based on intrinsic technology and system market life cycles

  6. Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Storage System: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Kandler A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Saxon, Aron R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, Matthew A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lundstrom, Blake R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cao, Ziwei [SunPower Corporation; Roc, Albert [SunPower Corp.

    2017-08-25

    Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Storage System: Preprint Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are being deployed on the electrical grid for a variety of purposes, such as to smooth fluctuations in solar renewable power generation. The lifetime of these batteries will vary depending on their thermal environment and how they are charged and discharged. To optimal utilization of a battery over its lifetime requires characterization of its performance degradation under different storage and cycling conditions. Aging tests were conducted on commercial graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) Li-ion cells. A general lifetime prognostic model framework is applied to model changes in capacity and resistance as the battery degrades. Across 9 aging test conditions from 0oC to 55oC, the model predicts capacity fade with 1.4 percent RMS error and resistance growth with 15 percent RMS error. The model, recast in state variable form with 8 states representing separate fade mechanisms, is used to extrapolate lifetime for example applications of the energy storage system integrated with renewable photovoltaic (PV) power generation.

  7. Relating lab to life: Decrements in attention over time predict math productivity among children with ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosco, Whitney D; Hawk, Larry W

    2017-02-01

    A child's ability to sustain attention over time (AOT) is critical in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), yet no prior work has examined the extent to which a child's decrement in AOT on laboratory tasks relates to clinically-relevant behavior. The goal of this study is to provide initial evidence for the criterion validity of laboratory assessments of AOT. A total of 20 children with ADHD (7-12 years of age) who were enrolled in a summer treatment program completed two lab attention tasks (a continuous performance task and a self-paced choice discrimination task) and math seatwork. Analyses focused on relations between attention task parameters and math productivity. Individual differences in overall attention (OA) measures (averaged across time) accounted for 23% of the variance in math productivity, supporting the criterion validity of lab measures of attention. The criterion validity was enhanced by consideration of changes in AOT. Performance on all laboratory attention measures deteriorated as time-on-task increased, and individual differences in the decrement in AOT accounted for 40% of the variance in math productivity. The only variable to uniquely predict math productivity was from the self-paced choice discrimination task. This study suggests that attention tasks in the lab do predict a clinically-relevant target behavior in children with ADHD, supporting their use as a means to study attention processes in a controlled environment. Furthermore, this prediction is improved when attention is examined as a function of time-on-task and when the attentional demands are consistent between lab and life contexts.

  8. Neither Basic Life Support knowledge nor self-efficacy are predictive of skills among dental students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mac Giolla Phadraig, C; Ho, J D; Guerin, S; Yeoh, Y L; Mohamed Medhat, M; Doody, K; Hwang, S; Hania, M; Boggs, S; Nolan, A; Nunn, J

    2017-08-01

    Basic life support (BLS) is considered a core competence for the graduating dentist. This study aimed to measure BLS knowledge, self-efficacy and skills of undergraduate dental students in Dublin. This study consisted of a cross-sectional survey measuring BLS knowledge and self-efficacy, accompanied by a directly observed BLS skills assessment in a subsample of respondents. Data were collected in January 2014. Bivariate correlations between descriptive and outcome variables (knowledge, self-efficacy and skills) were tested using Pearson's chi-square. We included knowledge and self-efficacy as predictor variables, along with other variables showing association, into a binary logistic regression model with BLS skills as the outcome measure. One hundred and thirty-five students participated. Almost all (n = 133, 98.5%) participants had BLS training within the last 2 years. One hundred and four (77%) felt that they were capable of providing effective BLS (self-efficacy), whilst only 46 (34.1%) scored >80% of knowledge items correct. Amongst the skills (n = 85) subsample, 38.8% (n = 33) were found to pass the BLS skills assessment. Controlling for gender, age and skills assessor, the regression model did not identify a predictive relationship between knowledge or self-efficacy and BLS skills. Neither knowledge nor self-efficacy was predictive of BLS skills. Dental students had low levels of knowledge and skills in BLS. Despite this, their confidence in their ability to perform BLS was high and did not predict actual competence. There is a need for additional hands-on training, focusing on self-efficacy and BLS skills, particularly the use of AED. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. The significance and predictive value of free light chains in the urine of patients with chronic inflammatory rheumatic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramlage, Carsten Paul; Froelich, Britta; Wallbach, Manuel; Minguet, Joan; Grupp, Clemens; Deutsch, Cornelia; Bramlage, Peter; Koziolek, Michael; Müller, Gerhard Anton

    2016-12-01

    In patients with rheumatic diseases, reliable markers for determining disease activity are scarce. One potential parameter is the level of immunoglobulin free light chains (FLCs), which is known to be elevated in the blood of patients with certain rheumatic diseases. Few studies have quantified FLCs in urine, a convenient source of test sample, in patients with different rheumatic diseases. We carried out a retrospective analysis of patients with rheumatic disease attending the University hospital of Goettingen, Germany. Subjects were included if they had urine levels of both κ and λ FLCs available and did not have myeloma. Data regarding systemic inflammation and kidney function were recorded, and FLC levels were correlated with inflammatory markers. Of the 382 patients with rheumatic disease, 40.1 % had chronic polyarthritis, 21.2 % connective tissue disease, 18.6 % spondyloarthritis and 15.7 % vasculitis. Elevated levels of κ FLCs were found for 84 % of patients and elevated λ for 52.7 %. For the patients with rheumatoid arthritis, FLCs correlated with C-reactive protein (κ, r = 0.368, p rheumatic disease, but not in κ/λ ratio. The correlation between FLCs and inflammatory markers in patients with rheumatoid arthritis demonstrates their potential for predicting disease activity.

  10. Combined use of serum MCP-1/IL-10 ratio and uterine artery Doppler index significantly improves the prediction of preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Shihong; Gao, Yanan; Zhang, Linlin; Wang, Yuan; Zhang, Lindong; Liu, Pingping; Liu, Ling; Chen, Juan

    2017-10-01

    Monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1, or CCL2) is a member of the chemokine subfamily involved in recruitment of monocytes in inflammatory tissues. IL-10 is a key regulator for maintaining the balance of anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory milieu at the feto-maternal interface. Doppler examination has been routinely performed for the monitoring and management of preeclampsia patients. This study evaluates the efficiency of these factors alone, or in combination, for the predication of preeclampsia. The serum levels of MCP-1 and IL-10 in 78 preeclampsia patients and 143 age-matched normal controls were measured. The Doppler ultrasonography was performed and Artery Pulsatility Index (PI) and Resistance Index (RI) were calculated for the same subjects. It was found that while the second-trimester serum MCP-1, IL-10, MCP-1/IL-10 ratio, PI, and RI showed some power in predicting preeclampsia, the combination of MCP-1/IL-10 and PI and RI accomplishes the highest efficiency, achieving an AUC of 0.973 (95% CI, 0.000-1.000, Ppreeclampsia. Future studies using a larger sample can be conducted to construct an algorithm capable of quantitative assessment on the risk of preeclampsia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Methodology for predicting the life of waste-package materials, and components using multifactor accelerated life tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.; Cote, R.W.

    1983-09-01

    Accelerated life tests are essential for estimating the service life of waste-package materials and components. A recommended methodology for generating accelerated life tests is described in this report. The objective of the methodology is to define an accelerated life test program that is scientifically and statistically defensible. The methodology is carried out using a select team of scientists and usually requires 4 to 12 man-months of effort. Specific agendas for the successive meetings of the team are included in the report for use by the team manager. The agendas include assignments for the team scientists and a different set of assignments for the team statistician. The report also includes descriptions of factorial tables, hierarchical trees, and associated mathematical models that are proposed as technical tools to guide the efforts of the design team

  12. Significant pre-accession factors predicting success or failure during a Marine Corps officer’s initial service obligation

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Jacob A.

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Increasing diversity and equal opportunity in the military is a congressional and executive priority. At the same time, improving recruiting practices is a priority of the commandant of the Marine Corps. In an effort to provide information to the Marine Corps that may improve recruiting practice and enable retention of a higher quality and more diverse officer corps, probit econometric models are estimated to identify significant facto...

  13. Significance of cardiac sympathetic nervous system abnormality for predicting vascular events in patients with idiopathic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akutsu, Yasushi; Kaneko, Kyouichi; Kodama, Yusuke; Li, Hui-Ling; Kawamura, Mitsuharu; Asano, Taku; Hamazaki, Yuji; Tanno, Kaoru; Kobayashi, Youichi; Suyama, Jumpei; Shinozuka, Akira; Gokan, Takehiko

    2010-01-01

    Neuronal system activity plays an important role for the prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Using 123 I metaiodobenzylguanidine ( 123 I-MIBG) scintigraphy, we investigated whether a cardiac sympathetic nervous system (SNS) abnormality would be associated with an increased risk of vascular events in patients with paroxysmal AF. 123 I-MIBG scintigraphy was performed in 69 consecutive patients (67 ± 13 years, 62% men) with paroxysmal AF who did not have structural heart disease. SNS integrity was assessed from the heart to mediastinum (H/M) ratio on delayed imaging. Serum concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) was measured before 123 I-MIBG study. During a mean of 4.5 ± 3.6 years follow-up, 19 patients had myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure (range: 0.2-11.5 years). SNS abnormality (H/M ratio <2.7) and high CRP (≥0.3 mg/dl) were associated with the vascular events (58.3% in 14 of 24 patients with SNS abnormality vs 11.1% in 5 of 45 patients without SNS abnormality, p < 0.0001, 52.4% in 11 of 21 patients with high CRP vs 16.7% in 8 of 48 patients without high CRP, p < 0.0001). After adjustment for potential confounding variables such as age, left atrial dimension and left ventricular function, SNS abnormality was an independent predictor of vascular events with a hazard ratio of 4.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-12.6, p = 0.014]. Further, SNS abnormality had an incremental and additive prognostic power in combination with high CRP with an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.1 (95% CI: 1.5-10.9, p = 0.006). SNS abnormality is predictive of vascular events in patients with idiopathic paroxysmal AF. (orig.)

  14. Significance of cardiac sympathetic nervous system abnormality for predicting vascular events in patients with idiopathic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akutsu, Yasushi; Kaneko, Kyouichi; Kodama, Yusuke; Li, Hui-Ling; Kawamura, Mitsuharu; Asano, Taku; Hamazaki, Yuji; Tanno, Kaoru; Kobayashi, Youichi [Showa University School of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Suyama, Jumpei; Shinozuka, Akira; Gokan, Takehiko [Showa University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Tokyo (Japan)

    2010-04-15

    Neuronal system activity plays an important role for the prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Using {sup 123}I metaiodobenzylguanidine ({sup 123}I-MIBG) scintigraphy, we investigated whether a cardiac sympathetic nervous system (SNS) abnormality would be associated with an increased risk of vascular events in patients with paroxysmal AF. {sup 123}I-MIBG scintigraphy was performed in 69 consecutive patients (67 {+-} 13 years, 62% men) with paroxysmal AF who did not have structural heart disease. SNS integrity was assessed from the heart to mediastinum (H/M) ratio on delayed imaging. Serum concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) was measured before {sup 123}I-MIBG study. During a mean of 4.5 {+-} 3.6 years follow-up, 19 patients had myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure (range: 0.2-11.5 years). SNS abnormality (H/M ratio <2.7) and high CRP ({>=}0.3 mg/dl) were associated with the vascular events (58.3% in 14 of 24 patients with SNS abnormality vs 11.1% in 5 of 45 patients without SNS abnormality, p < 0.0001, 52.4% in 11 of 21 patients with high CRP vs 16.7% in 8 of 48 patients without high CRP, p < 0.0001). After adjustment for potential confounding variables such as age, left atrial dimension and left ventricular function, SNS abnormality was an independent predictor of vascular events with a hazard ratio of 4.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-12.6, p = 0.014]. Further, SNS abnormality had an incremental and additive prognostic power in combination with high CRP with an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.1 (95% CI: 1.5-10.9, p = 0.006). SNS abnormality is predictive of vascular events in patients with idiopathic paroxysmal AF. (orig.)

  15. RNA-Seq analysis during the life cycle of Cryptosporidium parvum reveals significant differential gene expression between proliferating stages in the intestine and infectious sporozoites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippuner, Christoph; Ramakrishnan, Chandra; Basso, Walter U; Schmid, Marc W; Okoniewski, Michal; Smith, Nicholas C; Hässig, Michael; Deplazes, Peter; Hehl, Adrian B

    2018-05-01

    Cryptosporidium parvum is a major cause of diarrhoea in humans and animals. There are no vaccines and few drugs available to control C. parvum. In this study, we used RNA-Seq to compare gene expression in sporozoites and intracellular stages of C. parvum to identify genes likely to be important for successful completion of the parasite's life cycle and, thereby, possible targets for drugs or vaccines. We identified 3774 protein-encoding transcripts in C. parvum. Applying a stringent cut-off of eight fold for determination of differential expression, we identified 173 genes (26 coding for predicted secreted proteins) upregulated in sporozoites. On the other hand, expression of 1259 genes was upregulated in intestinal stages (merozoites/gamonts) with a gene ontology enrichment for 63 biological processes and upregulation of 117 genes in 23 metabolic pathways. There was no clear stage specificity of expression of AP2-domain containing transcription factors, although sporozoites had a relatively small repertoire of these important regulators. Our RNA-Seq analysis revealed a new calcium-dependent protein kinase, bringing the total number of known calcium-dependent protein kinases (CDPKs) in C. parvum to 11. One of these, CDPK1, was expressed in all stages, strengthening the notion that it is a valid drug target. By comparing parasites grown in vivo (which produce bona fide thick-walled oocysts) and in vitro (which are arrested in sexual development prior to oocyst generation) we were able to confirm that genes encoding oocyst wall proteins are expressed in gametocytes and that the proteins are stockpiled rather than generated de novo in zygotes. RNA-Seq analysis of C. parvum revealed genes expressed in a stage-specific manner and others whose expression is required at all stages of development. The functional significance of these can now be addressed through recent advances in transgenics for C. parvum, and may lead to the identification of viable drug and vaccine

  16. Role of nutritional status in predicting quality of life outcomes in cancer – a systematic review of the epidemiological literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Malnutrition is a significant factor in predicting cancer patients’ quality of life (QoL). We systematically reviewed the literature on the role of nutritional status in predicting QoL in cancer. We searched MEDLINE database using the terms “nutritional status” in combination with “quality of life” together with “cancer”. Human studies published in English, having nutritional status as one of the predictor variables, and QoL as one of the outcome measures were included. Of the 26 included studies, 6 investigated head and neck cancer, 8 gastrointestinal, 1 lung, 1 gynecologic and 10 heterogeneous cancers. 24 studies concluded that better nutritional status was associated with better QoL, 1 study showed that better nutritional status was associated with better QoL only in high-risk patients, while 1 study concluded that there was no association between nutritional status and QoL. Nutritional status is a strong predictor of QoL in cancer patients. We recommend that more providers implement the American Society of Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition (ASPEN) guidelines for oncology patients, which includes nutritional screening, nutritional assessment and intervention as appropriate. Correcting malnutrition may improve QoL in cancer patients, an important outcome of interest to cancer patients, their caregivers, and families. PMID:22531478

  17. Predictive potential of the relationship between values, depression, comorbidity and the perception of quality of life in the elderly rehabilitation clients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tone Brejc

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available The research objective was to study the predictive potential of the relationship between personal values, depression, comorbidity and the perception of quality of life in 80 older rehabilitation clients, aged 65 years and more with the average age 74,4 years, suffering from serious injury or stroke and referred to geriatric rehabilitation unit of Rehabilitation Institute in Ljubljana, Slovenia. Controlled for age, gender, and disability were used correlational, multiple regression, and multivariate analysis of variables, assessed by Pogačnik's Personal Values Scale, Yesavage's Geriatric Depression Scale, and Charlson's comorbidity index (CMI and WHO Quality of Life Scale-BREF. The results revealed the preference of values of security, affiliation and traditional ethics, reflecting hierarchical change only due to age, not to gender, disability or comorbidity. Depression was not influenced by the personal values, which, conversely, had no significant impact on the perceived quality of life, being assessed as good. The perceived quality of life was negatively associated with functional disability and psychological disatisfaction, and positively with social relationships and evironmental support. Depression was moderate, situationally caused and the only predictor of the perceived quality of life. The results provide support for the conclusion that efforts invested in establishment and maintenance of adequate life conditions of the older rehabilitation patients, enhancing and supporting their feelings of personal strenght, competence and independence may serve better in management of their depression and perceived quality of life than direct counselling interventions focused on changing their values and attitudes.

  18. Evaluation of ischemic corticospinal tract damage by diffusion tensor MRI. Its significance to predict functional outcome of corona radiata infarct

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Hideki

    2010-01-01

    Motor impairment is one of the most frequent symptoms among stroke patients and often leads to poststroke dependency. Recent advances of diffusion tensor MR imaging made it possible to identify corticospinal tract (CST) three-dimensionally and evaluate structural damage, so precise evaluation of the ischemic CST damage became feasible.Motor impairment, lesion size and location upon diffusion weighted MR image and clinical outcome were assessed in 23 acute to subacute capsular and corona radiata infarct patients. According to the lesion size, patients were grouped into A, maximal diameter below 15 mm and B, that above 15 mm. Motor impairment was graded severe: limb movement synergy level, moderate: selective muscle activity possible and mild: isolated movements well co-ordinated, each corresponding to Brunnstrom stage 1-3, 4-5, and 6, respectively. Outcome at the time of discharge was assessed by modified Rankin Scale (mRS), discharge destination and length of hospital stay were also registered. Diffusion tensor MR imaging was conducted in 15 corona radiata infarct patients at 2.3+-2.2 days from the onset of the clinical symptoms. CST was 3-dimensionally identified with dTV. II. SR and Volume-one 1.72 and CST-FA ratio (ipsi-/contralesional CST-FA) and CST-Area% (CST lesion free area/whole CST area) were obtained at the level where ischemic damage was most prominent and correlation of these parameters to motor impairment and clinical outcome was studied. CST-FA ratio and CST-Area% were in good correlation to motor impairment at presentation. Patients with severe motor impairment had lower CST-FA ratio and CSF-Area% than those with moderate or mild. CST-FA ratio was 0.73+-0.22 in patients with poor clinical outcome (mRS 3-6) and 0.93+-0.09 with good clinical outcome (mRS 0-2) (p=0.038). Diffusion tensor MR imaging is useful in evaluating motor impairment and predicting functional outcome of corona radiata infarct patient in the acute to subacute stage. (author)

  19. Childhood conscientiousness predicts the social gradient of smoking in adulthood: a life course analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pluess, Michael; Bartley, Mel

    2015-04-01

    The social gradient in smoking is well known, with higher rates among those in less advantaged socioeconomic position. Some recent research has reported that personality characteristics partly explain this gradient. However, the majority of existing work is limited by cross-sectional designs unsuitable to determine whether differences in conscientiousness are a predictor or a product of social inequalities. Adopting a life course perspective, we investigated in the current paper the influence of conscientiousness in early and mid-life on the social gradient in smoking and the role of potential confounding factors in a large longitudinal cohort study. Using data from the 1958 National Child Development Study, we examined the extent to which two measures of conscientiousness, one assessed with a personality questionnaire at age 50 and one derived from three related items at 16 years in childhood, explained the social gradient of smoking at age 50 by comparing nested logistic regression models that included social class at birth, cognitive ability, attention and conduct problems at age 7, and educational qualification. Childhood conscientiousness was a significant predictor of smoking at 50 years (OR=0.86, CI (95%) 0.84 to 0.88), explaining 5.0% of the social gradient independent of all other variables. Childhood conscientiousness was a stronger predictor than adult conscientiousness, statistically accounting for the observed direct association of adult conscientiousness with smoking. Conscientiousness may be a predictor rather than a product of social differences in smoking. Inclusion of personality measures and adoption of a life course perspective add significantly to our understanding of health inequalities. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. Sebum and Hydration Levels in Specific Regions of Human Face Significantly Predict the Nature and Diversity of Facial Skin Microbiome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Souvik; Mitra, Rupak; Maitra, Arindam; Gupta, Satyaranjan; Kumaran, Srikala; Chakrabortty, Amit; Majumder, Partha P

    2016-10-27

    The skin microbiome varies across individuals. The causes of these variations are inadequately understood. We tested the hypothesis that inter-individual variation in facial skin microbiome can be significantly explained by variation in sebum and hydration levels in specific facial regions of humans. We measured sebum and hydration from forehead and cheek regions of healthy female volunteers (n = 30). Metagenomic DNA from skin swabs were sequenced for V3-V5 regions of 16S rRNA gene. Altogether, 34 phyla were identified; predominantly Actinobacteria (66.3%), Firmicutes (17.7%), Proteobacteria (13.1%) and Bacteroidetes (1.4%). About 1000 genera were identified; predominantly Propionibacterium (58.6%), Staphylococcus (8.6%), Streptococcus (4.0%), Corynebacterium (3.6%) and Paracoccus (3.3%). A subset (n = 24) of individuals were sampled two months later. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that cheek sebum level was the most significant predictor of microbiome composition and diversity followed by forehead hydration level; forehead sebum and cheek hydration levels were not. With increase in cheek sebum, the prevalence of Actinobacteria (p = 0.001)/Propionibacterium (p = 0.002) increased, whereas microbiome diversity decreased (Shannon Index, p = 0.032); this was opposite for other phyla/genera. These trends were reversed for forehead hydration levels. Therefore, the nature and diversity of facial skin microbiome is jointly determined by site-specific lipid and water levels in the stratum corneum.

  1. Development and validation of a method to predict coal pillar life in South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Der Merwe, J.N. [Pretoria Univ., Dept. of Mining Engineering (South Africa)

    2005-07-01

    rate of pillar scaling. The next step was then to measure the actual amounts of scaling on un-failed pillars underground. This was done on a large number of pillars in a variety of conditions. The measurements showed sufficiently close correspondence with the assumed values, to confirm the assumptions and by consequence, the life prediction procedure. With the aid of the real measurements, it was also possible to statistically determine confidence and accuracy levels of the procedure. (author)

  2. Development and validation of a method to predict coal pillar life in South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Der Merwe, J.N.

    2005-01-01

    of pillar scaling. The next step was then to measure the actual amounts of scaling on un-failed pillars underground. This was done on a large number of pillars in a variety of conditions. The measurements showed sufficiently close correspondence with the assumed values, to confirm the assumptions and by consequence, the life prediction procedure. With the aid of the real measurements, it was also possible to statistically determine confidence and accuracy levels of the procedure. (author)

  3. Neurodegenerative cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers tau and amyloid beta predict functional, quality of life, and neuropsychological outcomes after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joswig, Holger; Korte, Wolfgang; Früh, Severin; Epprecht, Lorenz; Hildebrandt, Gerhard; Fournier, Jean-Yves; Stienen, Martin Nikolaus

    2018-04-01

    Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers might be useful in predicting outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). It was the aim to determine whether tau and amyloid beta CSF concentrations predict functional, health-related quality of life (hrQoL), and neuropsychological outcomes after aSAH. Ventricular CSF was obtained from n = 24 aSAH patients at admission (D0), day 2 (D2), and day 6 (D6). CSF total (t)Tau, phosphorylated (p)Tau (181P) , and amyloid beta (1-40 and 1-42) (Aβ40/Aβ42) levels were compared between patients with favorable and unfavorable functional (modified Rankin Scale (mRS)), hrQoL (Euro-Qol (EQ-5D)), and neuropsychological outcomes at 3 (3 m) and 12 months (12 m). Patients with unfavorable functional (mRS 4-6) and hrQoL outcome (EQ-5D z-score ≤ - 1.0) at 3 and 12 m had higher CSF tTau/pTau and lower Aβ40/Aβ42 at D0, D2, and D6 with varying degrees of statistical significance. In terms of predicting neuropsychological outcome, CSF pTau showed a statistically significant correlation with the z-scores of executive function (r = - 0.7486, p = 0.008), verbal memory (r = - 0.8101, p = 0.002), attention (r = - 0.6498, p = 0.030), and visuospatial functioning (r = - 0.6944, p = 0.017) at 3 m. At 12 m, CSF pTau had statistically significant correlations with the z-scores of verbal memory (r = - 0.7473, p = 0.008) and visuospatial functioning (r = - 0.6678, p = 0.024). In conclusion, higher tTau/pTau and lower Aβ40/Aβ42 CSF levels predict unfavorable long-term functional and hrQoL outcomes. Neuropsychological deficits correlate with increased CSF tTau and pTau concentrations.

  4. Pretreatment Quality of Life Predicts for Locoregional Control in Head and Neck Cancer Patients: A Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Farzan; Pajak, Thomas F.; Watkins-Bruner, Deborah; Konski, Andre A.; Coyne, James C.; Gwede, Clement K.; Garden, Adam S.; Spencer, Sharon A.; Jones, Christopher; Movsas, Benjamin

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: To analyze the prospectively collected health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) data from patients enrolled in two Radiation Therapy Oncology Group randomized Phase III head and neck cancer trials (90-03 and 91-11) to assess their value as an independent prognostic factor for locoregional control (LRC) and/or overall survival (OS). Methods and Materials: HRQOL questionnaires, using a validated instrument, the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Head and Neck (FACT-H and N), version 2, were completed by patients before the start of treatment. OS and LRC were the outcome measures analyzed using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. Results: Baseline FACT-H and N data were available for 1,093 patients and missing for 417 patients. No significant difference in outcome was found between the patients with and without baseline FACT-H and N data (p = 0.58). The median follow-up time was 27.2 months for all patients and 49 months for surviving patients. Multivariate analyses were performed for both OS and LRC. Beyond tumor and nodal stage, Karnofsky performance status, primary site, cigarette use, use of concurrent chemotherapy, and altered fractionation schedules, the FACT-H and N score was independently predictive of LRC (but not OS), with p = 0.0038. The functional well-being component of the FACT-H and N predicted most significantly for LRC (p = 0.0004). Conclusions: This study represents, to our knowledge, the largest analysis of HRQOL as a prognostic factor in locally advanced head and neck cancer patients. The results of this study have demonstrated the importance of baseline HRQOL as a significant and independent predictor of LRC in patients with locally advanced head and neck cancer

  5. Review of time-dependent fatigue behavior and life prediction for 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booker, M.K.; Majumdar, S.

    1982-01-01

    Available data on creep-fatigue life and fracture behavior of 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel are reviewed. Whereas creep-fatigue interaction is important for Type 304 stainless steel, oxidation effects appear to dominate the time-dependent fatigue behavior of 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. Four of the currently available predictive methods - the Linear Damage Rule, Frequency Separation Equation, Strain Range Partitioning Equation, and Damage Rate Equation - are evaluated for their predictive capability. Variations in the parameters for the various predictive methods with temperature, heat of material, heat treatment, and environment are investigated. Relative trends in the lives predicted by the various methods as functions of test duration, waveshape, etc., are discussed. The predictive methods will need modification in order to account for oxidation and aging effects in the 2 1/4 Cr-1 Mo steel. Future tests that will emphasize the difference between the various predictive methods are proposed

  6. Early-life exposures predicting onset and resolution of childhood overweight or obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Jessica A; Long, Catherine; Clifford, Susan A; Muller, Joshua; Gillespie, Alanna N; Donath, Susan; Wake, Melissa

    2017-10-01

    To determine which of multiple early-life exposures predict onset or resolution of overweight/obesity during a 9-year period. Design : longitudinal cohort from three harmonised community-based cohorts enriched for overweight and obesity. Early-life exposures : child-gestational age; delivery; birth weight; breast feeding; solids introduction; baseline body mass index (BMI); waist circumference; diet; activity; global, physical and psychosocial health. Mother-baseline BMI; education; age; neighbourhood disadvantage; concern for child's weight. Outcome : change in BMI category. Analyses : adjusted logistic regression. On average, the 363 children (57% retention) were 6 and 15 years old at baseline and follow-up. Children were classified as 'never' overweight/obese (38%), 'resolving' overweight/obese (15%), 'becoming' overweight/obese (8%) or 'always' overweight/obese (39%). Compared with 'never overweight/obese' children, odds of 'becoming overweight/obese' were greater with higher child (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.02 to 5.29) and maternal BMI (OR 1.18, CI 1.07 to 1.31), and lower with higher maternal education (OR 0.09, CI 0.02 to 0.34). Compared with 'always overweight/obese' children, odds of 'resolving overweight/obese' were lower with higher maternal BMI (OR 0.87, CI 0.78 to 0.97), and higher with better child physical health (OR 1.06, CI 1.02 to 1.10) and higher maternal age (OR 1.11, CI 1.01 to 1.22) and education (OR 4.07, CI 1.02 to 16.19). Readily available baseline information (child/maternal BMI, maternal age, education and child health) were the strongest predictors of both onset and resolution of overweight/obesity between the primary school and adolescent years. Perinatal, breastfeeding and lifestyle exposures were not strongly predictive. Results could stimulate development of algorithms identifying children most in need of targeted prevention or treatment. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under

  7. Predicting quality of life and self-management from dyadic support and overprotection after myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joekes, Katherine; Maes, Stan; Warrens, Matthijs

    2007-11-01

    Using a self-regulatory framework, this study aims to identify how couples perceive a partner's support style after myocardial infarction (MI), and whether this predicts the patient's health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) and self-management (S-M) 9 months later. This longitudinal dyadic study includes 73 couples (86% of patients were men), recruited from two cardiac rehabilitation programmes in the Netherlands. Mean age of patients was 54.8 (SD=9.6) and of partners 52.5 (SD=9.8). Participants were interviewed and completed questionnaires at baseline (T1). Repeat questionnaires were returned by 69 and 67 couples after 3 (T2) and 9 months (T3), respectively. Support by partners is conceptualized in this study as 'active engagement' (AE), which involves the extent to which a partner engages the patient in conversations which focus on emotional support and problem solving. Levels of AE do not change over time, nor do they differ between members of the dyad. Levels of overprotection (OP) diminish with time, whilst patients consistently perceive more OP than partners report providing. Patients' experience of goal hindrance (at T3) due to the MI is associated with a decreased HR-QoL at T3 (controlling for baseline measures). The perception of having a supportive (AE) partner at T1 contributes to enhanced patient HR-QoL at each subsequent time point, although not to physical functioning. Perceiving a partner as overprotective (at T1) predicts worsened physical functioning in patients (at T3). Improvements in S-M at T3 (controlling for baseline measures) are reported by patients whose partner displays active engagement at T1. Cardiac rehabilitation should aim to redress the experience of goal disturbance and advise partners on how to provide support.

  8. Profiling crop pollinators: life history traits predict habitat use and crop visitation by Mediterranean wild bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisanty, Gideon; Mandelik, Yael

    2015-04-01

    Wild pollinators, bees in particular, may greatly contribute to crop pollination and provide a safety net against declines in commercial pollinators. However, the identity, life history traits, and environmental sensitivities of main crop pollinator species.have received limited attention. These are crucial for predicting pollination services of different communities and for developing management practices that enhance crop pollinators. We sampled wild bees in three crop systems (almond, confection sunflower, and seed watermelon) in a mosaic Israeli Mediterranean landscape. Bees were sampled in field/orchard edges and interiors, and in seminatural scrub surrounding the fields/orchards. We also analyzed land cover at 50-2500 m radii around fields/orchards. We used this data to distinguish crop from non-crop pollinators based on a set of life history traits (nesting, lecty, sociality, body size) linked to habitat preference and crop visitation. Bee abundance and species richness decreased from the surrounding seminatural habitat to the field/orchard interior, especially across the seminatural habitat-field edge ecotone. Thus, although rich bee communities were found near fields, only small fractions crossed the ecotone and visited crop flowers in substantial numbers. The bee assemblage in agricultural fields/orchards and on crop flowers was dominated by ground-nesting bees of the tribe Halictini, which tend to nest within fields. Bees' habitat preferences were determined mainly by nesting guild, whereas crop visitation was determined mainly by sociality. Lecty and body size also affected both measures. The percentage of surrounding seminatural habitat at 250-2500 m radii had a positive effect on wild bee diversity in field edges, for all bee guilds, while at 50-100 m radii, only aboveground nesters were positively affected. In sum, we found that crop and non-crop pollinators are distinguished by behavioral and morphological traits. Hence, analysis of life

  9. Investigating the interactive role of stressful life events, reinforcement sensitivity and personality traits in prediction of the severity of Multiple Sclerosis (MS symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objective: Multiple sclerosis is a chronic neurological condition recognized by demyelination in the central nervous system. The present study was conducted to investigate the interactive role of stressful life events, reinforcement sensitivity, and personality traits in prediction of the severity of symptoms of Multiple sclerosis (MS symptoms. Materials & Methods: This is a correlational study whose statistical population consisted of all the patients suffering from Multiple Sclerosis in Shiraz in the first half of 1394, among whom 162 patients were included in this research by means of purposive sampling method. Five-Factor Personality Inventory, Jackson Personality Inventory, Stressful Life Events Scale, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS were utilised as research tools. In order to analyze the data, descriptive and inferential methods were used. The data were analysed using Pearson correlation and hierarchical regression. Results: The findings revealed that stressful life events (β = 0.41, p <0.001, Behavioral Inhibition System (β = 0.26, p<0.05, and neuroticism index (β = 0.92, p <0.05 were able to predict variance of scores of the severity of symptoms of Multiple Sclerosis significantly. Conclusion: Stressful life events, Behavioral Inhibition System, and neuroticism showed a significant relationship with the severity of symptoms of Multiple Sclerosis; thus, it seems that interaction of personality traits and environmental conditions are among influential factors of the severity of symptoms of Multiple Sclerosis. This fact implies that individuals' personal traits play an eminent role in the progression of the disease.

  10. Appreciation and Life Satisfaction: Does Appreciation Uniquely Predict Life Satisfaction above Gender, Coping Skills, Self-Esteem, and Positive Affectivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halle, Joshua Solomon

    2015-01-01

    The primary purpose of this research was to examine whether appreciation explains variance in life satisfaction after controlling for gender, positive affectivity, self-esteem, and coping skills. Two hundred ninety-eight undergraduates went to the informed consent page of the online survey composed of the Appreciation Scale, the Satisfaction With…

  11. Results of fatigue tests and prediction of fatigue life under superposed stress wave and combined superposed stress wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takasugi, Shunji; Horikawa, Takeshi; Tsunenari, Toshiyasu; Nakamura, Hiroshi

    1983-01-01

    In order to examine fatigue life prediction methods at high temperatures where creep damage need not be taken into account, fatigue tests were carried out on plane bending specimens of alloy steels (SCM 435, 2 1/4Cr-1Mo) under superposed and combined superposed stress waves at room temperature and 500 0 C. The experimental data were compared with the fatigue lives predicted by using the cycle counting methods (range pair, range pair mean and zero-cross range pair mean methods), the modified Goodman's equation and the modified Miner's rule. The main results were as follows. (1) The fatigue life prediction method which is being used for the data at room temperature is also applicable to predict the life at high temperatures. The range pair mean method is especially better than other cycle counting methods. The zero-cross range pair mean method gives the estimated lives on the safe side of the experimental lives. (2) The scatter bands of N-bar/N-barsub(es) (experimental life/estimated life) becomes narrower when the following equation is used instead of the modified Goodman's equation for predicting the effect of mean stress on fatigue life. σ sub(t) = σ sub(a) / (1 - Sigma-s sub(m) / kσ sub(B)) σ sub(t); stress amplitude at zero mean stress (kg/mm 2 ) σ sub(B); tensile strength (kg/mm 2 ) σ sub(m); mean stress (kg/mm 2 ) σ sub(a); stress amplitude (kg/mm 2 ) k; modified coefficient of σ sub(B) (author)

  12. Machine learning approaches for integrating clinical and imaging features in late-life depression classification and response prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Meenal J; Andreescu, Carmen; Price, Julie C; Edelman, Kathryn L; Reynolds, Charles F; Aizenstein, Howard J

    2015-10-01

    Currently, depression diagnosis relies primarily on behavioral symptoms and signs, and treatment is guided by trial and error instead of evaluating associated underlying brain characteristics. Unlike past studies, we attempted to estimate accurate prediction models for late-life depression diagnosis and treatment response using multiple machine learning methods with inputs of multi-modal imaging and non-imaging whole brain and network-based features. Late-life depression patients (medicated post-recruitment) (n = 33) and older non-depressed individuals (n = 35) were recruited. Their demographics and cognitive ability scores were recorded, and brain characteristics were acquired using multi-modal magnetic resonance imaging pretreatment. Linear and nonlinear learning methods were tested for estimating accurate prediction models. A learning method called alternating decision trees estimated the most accurate prediction models for late-life depression diagnosis (87.27% accuracy) and treatment response (89.47% accuracy). The diagnosis model included measures of age, Mini-mental state examination score, and structural imaging (e.g. whole brain atrophy and global white mater hyperintensity burden). The treatment response model included measures of structural and functional connectivity. Combinations of multi-modal imaging and/or non-imaging measures may help better predict late-life depression diagnosis and treatment response. As a preliminary observation, we speculate that the results may also suggest that different underlying brain characteristics defined by multi-modal imaging measures-rather than region-based differences-are associated with depression versus depression recovery because to our knowledge this is the first depression study to accurately predict both using the same approach. These findings may help better understand late-life depression and identify preliminary steps toward personalized late-life depression treatment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley

  13. Prediction of clearance, volume of distribution and half-life by allometric scaling and by use of plasma concentrations predicted from pharmacokinetic constants: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood, I

    1999-08-01

    Pharmacokinetic parameters (clearance, CL, volume of distribution in the central compartment, VdC, and elimination half-life, t1/2beta) predicted by an empirical allometric approach have been compared with parameters predicted from plasma concentrations calculated by use of the pharmacokinetic constants A, B, alpha and beta, where A and B are the intercepts on the Y axis of the plot of plasma concentration against time and alpha and beta are the rate constants, both pairs of constants being for the distribution and elimination phases, respectively. The pharmacokinetic parameters of cefpiramide, actisomide, troglitazone, procaterol, moxalactam and ciprofloxacin were scaled from animal data obtained from the literature. Three methods were used to generate plots for the prediction of clearance in man: dependence of clearance on body weight (simple allometric equation); dependence of the product of clearance and maximum life-span potential (MLP) on body weight; and dependence of the product of clearance and brain weight on body weight. Plasma concentrations of the drugs were predicted in man by use of A, B, alpha and beta obtained from animal data. The predicted plasma concentrations were then used to calculate CL, VdC and t1/2beta. The pharmacokinetic parameters predicted by use of both approaches were compared with measured values. The results indicate that simple allometry did not predict clearance satisfactorily for actisomide, troglitazone, procaterol and ciprofloxacin. Use of MLP or the product of clearance and brain weight improved the prediction of clearance for these four drugs. Except for troglitazone, VdC and t1/2beta predicted for man by use of the allometric approach were comparable with measured values for the drugs studied. CL, VdC and t1/2beta predicted by use of pharmacokinetic constants were comparable with values predicted by simple allometry. Thus, if simple allometry failed to predict clearance of a drug, so did the pharmacokinetic constant

  14. Model for Predicting Traffic Signs Functional Service Life – The Republic of Croatia Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Babić

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Traffic signs are the basic elements of communication between the relevant road authorities and road users. They manage, regulate, inform and warn road users to ensure their safe movement throughout transport networks. Traffic signs must be timely visible to all traffic participants in all weather and traffic conditions in order to fulfil their function, which means they must have satisfactory retroreflection properties. This paper presents a research of the deterioration of traffic signs retroreflection. The aim of this article is to develop models that will effectively enable predicting the retroreflection of traffic signs and thus optimize the maintenance activities and replacement of road signs to increase road safety. The research included measurements of retroreflection of retroreflective material Classes I and II (white, red and blue colour and Class III (red and yellow colour. Based on the collected data from the City of Zagreb (Republic of Croatia, the authors developed the models to estimate the functional service life of certain colours and materials used to make traffic signs. Considering that the average coefficient of determination for all the models is between 0.55-0.60, they present an effective tool in the traffic sign maintenance system.

  15. Tool-life prediction under multi-cycle loading during metal forming: a feasibility study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Yiran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present research, the friction and wear behaviour of a hard coating were studied by using ball-on-disc tests to simulate the wear process of the coated tools for sheet metal forming process. The evolution of the friction coefficient followed a typical dual-plateau pattern, i.e. at the initial stage of sliding, the friction coefficient was relatively low, followed by a sharp increase due to the breakdown of the coatings after a certain number of cyclic dynamic loadings. This phenomenon was caused by the interactive response between the friction and wear from a coating tribo-system, which is often neglected by metal forming researchers, and constant friction coefficient values are normally used in the finite element (FE simulations to represent the complex tribological nature at the contact interfaces. Meanwhile, most of the current FE simulations consider single-cycle loading processes, whereas many metal-forming operations are conducted in a form of multi-cycle loading. Therefore, a novel friction/wear interactive friction model was developed to, simultaneously, characterise the evolutions of friction coefficient and the remaining thickness of the coating layer, to enable the wear life of coated tooling to be predicted. The friction model was then implemented into the FE simulation of a sheet metal forming process for feasibility study.

  16. Tool life prediction under multi-cycle loading conditions: A feasibility study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Xi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present research, the friction and wear behaviour of a hard coating were studied by using ball-on-disc tests to simulate the wear process of the coated tools for sheet metal forming process. The evolution of the friction coefficient followed a typical dual-plateau pattern, i.e. at the initial stage of sliding, the friction coefficient was relatively low, followed by a sharp increase due to the breakdown of the coatings after a certain number of cyclic dynamic loadings. This phenomenon was caused by the interactive response between the friction and wear from a coating tribo-system, which has not been addressed so far by metal forming researchers, and constant friction coefficient values are normally used in the FE simulations to represent the complex tribological nature at the contact interfaces. Meanwhile, most of the current FE simulations are single cycle, whereas most sheet metal forming operations are conducted as multi-cycle. Therefore, a novel friction/wear interactive friction model was developed to, simultaneously, characterise the evolutions of friction coefficient and the remaining thickness of the coating layer, to enable the wear life of coated tooling to be predicted. The friction model was then implemented into the FE simulation of a sheet metal forming process for feasibility study.

  17. Implicit theories about willpower predict self-regulation and grades in everyday life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Job, Veronika; Walton, Gregory M; Bernecker, Katharina; Dweck, Carol S

    2015-04-01

    Laboratory research shows that when people believe that willpower is an abundant (rather than highly limited) resource they exhibit better self-control after demanding tasks. However, some have questioned whether this "nonlimited" theory leads to squandering of resources and worse outcomes in everyday life when demands on self-regulation are high. To examine this, we conducted a longitudinal study, assessing students' theories about willpower and tracking their self-regulation and academic performance. As hypothesized, a nonlimited theory predicted better self-regulation (better time management and less procrastination, unhealthy eating, and impulsive spending) for students who faced high self-regulatory demands. Moreover, among students taking a heavy course load, those with a nonlimited theory earned higher grades, which was mediated by less procrastination. These findings contradict the idea that a limited theory helps people allocate their resources more effectively; instead, it is people with the nonlimited theory who self-regulate well in the face of high demands. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-01-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions. PMID:28429710

  19. Loading Analysis of Composite Wind Turbine Blade for Fatigue Life Prediction of Adhesively Bonded Root Joint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimi-Majd, Davood; Azimzadeh, Vahid; Mohammadi, Bijan

    2015-06-01

    Nowadays wind energy is widely used as a non-polluting cost-effective renewable energy resource. During the lifetime of a composite wind turbine which is about 20 years, the rotor blades are subjected to different cyclic loads such as aerodynamics, centrifugal and gravitational forces. These loading conditions, cause to fatigue failure of the blade at the adhesively bonded root joint, where the highest bending moments will occur and consequently, is the most critical zone of the blade. So it is important to estimate the fatigue life of the root joint. The cohesive zone model is one of the best methods for prediction of initiation and propagation of debonding at the root joint. The advantage of this method is the possibility of modeling the debonding without any requirement to the remeshing. However in order to use this approach, it is necessary to analyze the cyclic loading condition at the root joint. For this purpose after implementing a cohesive interface element in the Ansys finite element software, one blade of a horizontal axis wind turbine with 46 m rotor diameter was modelled in full scale. Then after applying loads on the blade under different condition of the blade in a full rotation, the critical condition of the blade is obtained based on the delamination index and also the load ratio on the root joint in fatigue cycles is calculated. These data are the inputs for fatigue damage growth analysis of the root joint by using CZM approach that will be investigated in future work.

  20. A critical analysis of the Mises stress criterion used in frequency domain fatigue life prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Niesłony

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Multiaxial fatigue failure criteria are formulated in time and frequency domain. The number of frequency domain criteria is rather small and the most popular one is the equivalent von Mises stress criterion. This criterion was elaborated by Preumont and Piefort on the basis of well-known von Mises stress concept, first proposed by Huber in 1907, and well accepted by the scientific community and engineers. It is important to know, that the criterion was developed to determine the yield stress and material effort under static load. Therefore the direct use of equivalent von Mises stress criterion for fatigue life prediction can lead to some incorrectness of theoretical and practical nature. In the present study four aspects were discussed: influence of the value of fatigue strength of tension and torsion, lack of parallelism of the SN curves, abnormal behaviour of the criterion under biaxial tensioncompression and influence of phase shift between particular stress state components. Information contained in this article will help to prevent improper use of this criterion and contributes to its better understanding

  1. Experiences of non-specialist nurses caring for patients and their significant others undergoing transitions during palliative end-of-life cancer care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorn, Hrønn; Uhrenfeldt, Lisbeth

    2017-01-01

    electronic databases and seven websites were searched. Methodological quality: Methodological validity of the qualitative papers was assessed independently by two reviewers using the standardized critical appraisal instruments from the Joanna Briggs Institute Qualitative Assessment and Review Instrument (JBI...... knowledge and personal growth. Objective/question: What are non-specialist nurses’ experiences when providing palliative end-of-life cancer care that involves the psychosocial and existential transitions of their patients and significant others? Inclusion criteria Types of participants: The current review...... considered studies that included a description of the experiences of non-specialist trained registered nurses (RNs) working in non-specialist wards. Phenomena of interest: The current review considered studies that investigated experiences of RNs when providing palliative end-of-life cancer care...

  2. Use of the Charlson Combined Comorbidity Index To Predict Postradiotherapy Quality of Life for Prostate Cancer Patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahlgren, Thomas; Levitt, Seymour; Kowalski, Jan; Nilsson, Sten; Brandberg, Yvonne

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To determine the impact of pretreatment comorbidity on late health-related quality of life (HRQoL) scores after patients have undergone combined radiotherapy for prostate cancer, including high-dose rate brachytherapy boost and hormonal deprivation therapy. Methods and Materials: Results from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C30 questionnaire survey of 158 patients 5 years or more after completion of therapy were used from consecutively accrued subjects treated with curative radiotherapy at our institution, with no signs of disease at the time of questionnaire completion. HRQoL scores were compared with the Charlson combined comorbidity index (CCI), using analysis of covariance and multivariate regression models together with pretreatment factors including tumor stage, tumor grade, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen level, neoadjuvant hormonal treatment, diabetes status, cardiovascular status, and age and Charlson score as separate variables or the composite CCI. Results: An inverse correlation between the two HRQoL domains, long-term global health (QL) and physical function (PF) scores, and the CCI score was observed, indicating an impact of comorbidity in these function areas. Selected pretreatment factors poorly explained the variation in functional HRQoL in the multivariate models; however, a statistically significant impact was found for the CCI (with QL and PF scores) and the presence of diabetes (with QL and emotional function). Cognitive function and social function were not statistically significantly predicted by any of the pretreatment factors. Conclusions: The CCI proved to be valid in this context, but it seems useful mainly in predicting long-term QL and PF scores. Of the other variables investigated, diabetes had more impact than cardiovascular morbidity on HRQoL outcomes in prostate cancer.

  3. Use of the Charlson Combined Comorbidity Index To Predict Postradiotherapy Quality of Life for Prostate Cancer Patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlgren, Thomas, E-mail: thomas.wahlgren@telia.com [Department of Oncology-Pathology, Karolinska University Hospital and Institutet, Stockholm (Sweden); Levitt, Seymour [Department of Oncology-Pathology, Karolinska University Hospital and Institutet, Stockholm (Sweden); Department of Therapeutic Radiology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Kowalski, Jan [Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm (Sweden); Nilsson, Sten; Brandberg, Yvonne [Department of Oncology-Pathology, Karolinska University Hospital and Institutet, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: To determine the impact of pretreatment comorbidity on late health-related quality of life (HRQoL) scores after patients have undergone combined radiotherapy for prostate cancer, including high-dose rate brachytherapy boost and hormonal deprivation therapy. Methods and Materials: Results from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C30 questionnaire survey of 158 patients 5 years or more after completion of therapy were used from consecutively accrued subjects treated with curative radiotherapy at our institution, with no signs of disease at the time of questionnaire completion. HRQoL scores were compared with the Charlson combined comorbidity index (CCI), using analysis of covariance and multivariate regression models together with pretreatment factors including tumor stage, tumor grade, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen level, neoadjuvant hormonal treatment, diabetes status, cardiovascular status, and age and Charlson score as separate variables or the composite CCI. Results: An inverse correlation between the two HRQoL domains, long-term global health (QL) and physical function (PF) scores, and the CCI score was observed, indicating an impact of comorbidity in these function areas. Selected pretreatment factors poorly explained the variation in functional HRQoL in the multivariate models; however, a statistically significant impact was found for the CCI (with QL and PF scores) and the presence of diabetes (with QL and emotional function). Cognitive function and social function were not statistically significantly predicted by any of the pretreatment factors. Conclusions: The CCI proved to be valid in this context, but it seems useful mainly in predicting long-term QL and PF scores. Of the other variables investigated, diabetes had more impact than cardiovascular morbidity on HRQoL outcomes in prostate cancer.

  4. A new approach to predict the fish fillet shelf-life in presence of natural preservative agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Giufffrida

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Three data sets concerning the behaviour of spoilage flora of fillets treated with natural preservative substances (NPS were used to construct a new kind of mathematical predictive model. This model, unlike other ones, allows expressing the antibacterial effect of the NPS separately from the prediction of the growth rate. This approach, based on the introduction of a parameter into the predictive primary model, produced a good fitting of observed data and allowed characterising quantitatively the increase of shelf-life of fillets.

  5. Using Self-Determination of Senior College Students with Disabilities to Predict Their Quality of Life One Year after Graduation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Pen-Chiang

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the correlation and predictive relationship between self-determination and quality of life of college students with disabilities. Subjects were 145 senior college students recruited from northern Taiwan. Subjects' age ranged from 22 to 25 years and their disabilities varied, including visual impairments (n =…

  6. Evaluating weather factors and material response during outdoor exposure to determine accelerated test protocols for predicting service life

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Sam Williams; Steven Lacher; Corey Halpin; Christopher White

    2005-01-01

    To develop service life prediction methods for the study of sealants, a fully instrumented weather station was installed at an outdoor test site near Madison, WI. Temperature, relative humidiy, rainfall, ultraviolet (UV) radiation at 18 wavelengths, and wind speed and direction are being continuously measured and stored. The weather data can be integrated over time to...

  7. Coping Styles, Social Support, Relational Self-Construal, and Resilience in Predicting Students' Adjustment to University Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahat, Enes; Ilhan, Tahsin

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of the present study is to investigate how well coping styles, social support, relational self-construal, and resilience characteristics predict first year university students' ability to adjust to university life. Participants consisted of 527 at-risk students attending a state university in Turkey. The Personal Information Form, Risk…

  8. Further evaluation of creep-fatigue life prediction methods for low-carbon nitrogen-added 316 stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Y.

    1999-01-01

    Low-carbon, medium-nitrogen 316 stainless steel is a principal candidate for a main structural material of a demonstration fast breeder reactor plant in Japan. A number of long-term creep tests and creep-fatigue tests have been conducted for four products of this steel. Two representative creep-fatigue life prediction methods, i.e., time fraction rule and ductility exhaustion method were applied. Total stress relaxation behavior was simulated well by an addition of a viscous strain term to the conventional (primary plus secondary) creep strain, but only the letter was assumed to contribute to creep damage in the ductility exhaustion method. The present ductility exhaustion approach was found to have very good accuracy in creep-fatigue life prediction for all materials tested, while the time fraction rule tended to overpredict failure life as large as a factor of 30. Discussion was made on the reason for this notable difference

  9. Longitudinal Prediction of Quality-of-Life Scores and Locomotion in Individuals With Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiremath, Shivayogi V; Hogaboom, Nathan S; Roscher, Melissa R; Worobey, Lynn A; Oyster, Michelle L; Boninger, Michael L

    2017-12-01

    To examine (1) differences in quality-of-life scores for groups based on transitions in locomotion status at 1, 5, and 10 years postdischarge in a sample of people with spinal cord injury (SCI); and (2) whether demographic factors and transitions in locomotion status can predict quality-of-life measures at these time points. Retrospective case study of the National SCI Database. Model SCI Systems Centers. Individuals with SCI (N=10,190) from 21 SCI Model Systems Centers, identified through the National SCI Model Systems Centers database between the years 1985 and 2012. Subjects had FIM (locomotion mode) data at discharge and at least 1 of the following: 1, 5, or 10 years postdischarge. Not applicable. FIM-locomotion mode; Severity of Depression Scale; Satisfaction With Life Scale; and Craig Handicap Assessment and Reporting Technique. Participants who transitioned from ambulation to wheelchair use reported lower participation and life satisfaction, and higher depression levels (P.05) or life satisfaction (P>.05) compared with those who transitioned from wheelchair to ambulation. Demographic factors and locomotion transitions predicted quality-of-life scores at all time points (P<.05). The results of this study indicate that transitioning from ambulation to wheelchair use can negatively impact psychosocial health 10 years after SCI. Clinicians should be aware of this when deciding on ambulation training. Further work to characterize who may be at risk for these transitions is needed. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Lebensdauervorhersage fur partikelverstaerkte Aluminiumlegierungen unter Beruecksichtigung der mikrostrukturellen Aspekte der Schaedigung (Working Life Predictions for Particle-Strengthened Aluminum Alloy with Regard to Microstructural Aspects of Deterioration)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berger, Wolfgang

    2000-01-01

    ... and., therefore, influence deterioration testing in preserved working life prediction concepts, thereby creating the basis for an improved application of these concepts for materials with heterogenous micro structures...

  11. Examining the Predictive Role of Emotional Self-Regulation in Quality of Life and Perception of Suffering among Patients with Breast Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Nikmanesh

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer and second leading cause of death in women after lung cancer. The World Health Organization has reported that breast cancer, with 502,000 deaths in 2005, surpassed lung, stomach, colorectal, and cervical cancers as the leading cause of death in women. The main objective of the current study was to examine the predictive role of emotional selfregulation in quality of life and perception of suffering among patients with breast cancer. Methods: This was a descriptive-analytical study followed by a correlational design. The sample population consisted of 42 patients with breast cancer selected by the census method. Participants completed questionnaires on emotional self-regulation, quality of