The Real World Significance of Performance Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Pardos, Zachary A.; Wang, Qing Yang; Trivedi, Shubhendu

2012-01-01

In recent years, the educational data mining and user modeling communities have been aggressively introducing models for predicting student performance on external measures such as standardized tests as well as within-tutor performance. While these models have brought statistically reliable improvement to performance prediction, the real world…

Surface tensions of multi-component mixed inorganic/organic aqueous systems of atmospheric significance: measurements, model predictions and importance for cloud activation predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. O. Topping

2007-01-01

, it would appear that in order to model multi-component surface tensions involving compounds used in this study one requires the use of appropriate binary data. However, results indicate that the use of theoretical frameworks which contain parameters derived from binary data may predict unphysical behaviour when taken beyond the concentration ranges used to fit such parameters. The effect of deviations between predicted and measured surface tensions on predicted critical saturation ratios was quantified, by incorporating the surface tension models into an existing thermodynamic framework whilst firstly neglecting bulk to surface partitioning. Critical saturation ratios as a function of dry size for all of the multi-component systems were computed and it was found that deviations between predictions increased with decreasing particle dry size. As expected, use of the surface tension of pure water, rather than calculate the influence of the solutes explicitly, led to a consistently higher value of the critical saturation ratio indicating that neglect of the compositional effects will lead to significant differences in predicted activation behaviour even at large particle dry sizes. Following this two case studies were used to study the possible effect of bulk to surface partitioning on critical saturation ratios. By employing various assumptions it was possible to perform calculations not only for a binary system but also for a mixed organic system. In both cases this effect lead to a significant increase in the predicted critical supersaturation ratio compared to the above treatment. Further analysis of this effect will form the focus of future work.

Prediction of Human Performance Using Electroencephalography under Different Indoor Room Temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Tinghe; Mao, Zijing; Xu, Xiaojing; Zhang, Lin; Pack, Daniel J.; Dong, Bing; Huang, Yufei

2018-01-01

Varying indoor environmental conditions is known to affect office worker’s performance; wherein past research studies have reported the effects of unfavorable indoor temperature and air quality causing sick building syndrome (SBS) among office workers. Thus, investigating factors that can predict performance in changing indoor environments have become a highly important research topic bearing significant impact in our society. While past research studies have attempted to determine predictors for performance, they do not provide satisfactory prediction ability. Therefore, in this preliminary study, we attempt to predict performance during office-work tasks triggered by different indoor room temperatures (22.2 °C and 30 °C) from human brain signals recorded using electroencephalography (EEG). Seven participants were recruited, from whom EEG, skin temperature, heart rate and thermal survey questionnaires were collected. Regression analyses were carried out to investigate the effectiveness of using EEG power spectral densities (PSD) as predictors of performance. Our results indicate EEG PSDs as predictors provide the highest R2 (> 0.70), that is 17 times higher than using other physiological signals as predictors and is more robust. Finally, the paper provides insight on the selected predictors based on brain activity patterns for low- and high-performance levels under different indoor-temperatures. PMID:29690601

Testing the prediction error difference between two predictors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Wiel, M.A.; Berkhof, J.; van Wieringen, W.N.

2009-01-01

We develop an inference framework for the difference in errors between 2 prediction procedures. The 2 procedures may differ in any aspect and possibly utilize different sets of covariates. We apply training and testing on the same data set, which is accommodated by sample splitting. For each split,

Causality and prediction: differences and points of contact

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Luis Carlos Silva Ayçaguer, PhD

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This contribution presents the differences between those variables that might play a causal role in a certain process and those only valuable for predicting the outcome. Some considerations are made about the core intervention of the association and the temporal precedence and biases in both cases, the study of causality and predictive modeling. In that context, several relevant aspects related to the design of the corresponding studies are briefly reviewed and some of the mistakes that are often committed in handling both, causality and prediction, are illustrated.

Age-related differences in the accuracy of web query-based predictions of influenza-like illness.

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Alexander Domnich

Full Text Available Web queries are now widely used for modeling, nowcasting and forecasting influenza-like illness (ILI. However, given that ILI attack rates vary significantly across ages, in terms of both magnitude and timing, little is known about whether the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related queries is comparable across different age-groups. The present study aimed to investigate features of the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related query volume from the perspective of age.Since Google Flu Trends is unavailable in Italy, Google Trends was used to identify entry terms that correlated highly with official ILI surveillance data. All-age and age-class-specific modeling was performed by means of linear models with generalized least-square estimation. Hold-out validation was used to quantify prediction accuracy. For purposes of comparison, predictions generated by exponential smoothing were computed.Five search terms showed high correlation coefficients of > .6. In comparison with exponential smoothing, the all-age query-based model correctly predicted the peak time and yielded a higher correlation coefficient with observed ILI morbidity (.978 vs. .929. However, query-based prediction of ILI morbidity was associated with a greater error. Age-class-specific query-based models varied significantly in terms of prediction accuracy. In the 0-4 and 25-44-year age-groups, these did well and outperformed exponential smoothing predictions; in the 15-24 and ≥ 65-year age-classes, however, the query-based models were inaccurate and highly overestimated peak height. In all but one age-class, peak timing predicted by the query-based models coincided with observed timing.The accuracy of web query-based models in predicting ILI morbidity rates could differ among ages. Greater age-specific detail may be useful in flu query-based studies in order to account for age-specific features of the epidemiology of ILI.

Model training across multiple breeding cycles significantly improves genomic prediction accuracy in rye (Secale cereale L.).

Science.gov (United States)

Auinger, Hans-Jürgen; Schönleben, Manfred; Lehermeier, Christina; Schmidt, Malthe; Korzun, Viktor; Geiger, Hartwig H; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Gordillo, Andres; Wilde, Peer; Bauer, Eva; Schön, Chris-Carolin

2016-11-01

Genomic prediction accuracy can be significantly increased by model calibration across multiple breeding cycles as long as selection cycles are connected by common ancestors. In hybrid rye breeding, application of genome-based prediction is expected to increase selection gain because of long selection cycles in population improvement and development of hybrid components. Essentially two prediction scenarios arise: (1) prediction of the genetic value of lines from the same breeding cycle in which model training is performed and (2) prediction of lines from subsequent cycles. It is the latter from which a reduction in cycle length and consequently the strongest impact on selection gain is expected. We empirically investigated genome-based prediction of grain yield, plant height and thousand kernel weight within and across four selection cycles of a hybrid rye breeding program. Prediction performance was assessed using genomic and pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP and PBLUP). A total of 1040 S 2 lines were genotyped with 16 k SNPs and each year testcrosses of 260 S 2 lines were phenotyped in seven or eight locations. The performance gap between GBLUP and PBLUP increased significantly for all traits when model calibration was performed on aggregated data from several cycles. Prediction accuracies obtained from cross-validation were in the order of 0.70 for all traits when data from all cycles (N CS  = 832) were used for model training and exceeded within-cycle accuracies in all cases. As long as selection cycles are connected by a sufficient number of common ancestors and prediction accuracy has not reached a plateau when increasing sample size, aggregating data from several preceding cycles is recommended for predicting genetic values in subsequent cycles despite decreasing relatedness over time.

Comparison of wind turbine wake properties in non‐sheared inflow predicted by different computational fluid dynamics rotor models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Troldborg, Niels; Zahle, Frederik; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan

2015-01-01

, which is characterized by much higher turbulence levels. In the simulations with turbulent inflow, the wake characteristics predicted by the three methods are in close agreement, indicating that the differences observed in uniform inflow do not play an important role if the inflow is turbulent...... both uniform and turbulent inflows, and the wake properties predicted by the three models are compared. In uniform inflow, the wake properties predicted by the actuator disc and line methods are found to be in very close agreement but differ significantly from the wake of the fully resolved rotor....... Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

A new model using routinely available clinical parameters to predict significant liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B.

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Wai-Kay Seto

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We developed a predictive model for significant fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB based on routinely available clinical parameters. METHODS: 237 treatment-naïve CHB patients [58.4% hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg-positive] who had undergone liver biopsy were randomly divided into two cohorts: training group (n = 108 and validation group (n = 129. Liver histology was assessed for fibrosis. All common demographics, viral serology, viral load and liver biochemistry were analyzed. RESULTS: Based on 12 available clinical parameters (age, sex, HBeAg status, HBV DNA, platelet, albumin, bilirubin, ALT, AST, ALP, GGT and AFP, a model to predict significant liver fibrosis (Ishak fibrosis score ≥3 was derived using the five best parameters (age, ALP, AST, AFP and platelet. Using the formula log(index+1 = 0.025+0.0031(age+0.1483 log(ALP+0.004 log(AST+0.0908 log(AFP+1-0.028 log(platelet, the PAPAS (Platelet/Age/Phosphatase/AFP/AST index predicts significant fibrosis with an area under the receiving operating characteristics (AUROC curve of 0.776 [0.797 for patients with ALT <2×upper limit of normal (ULN] The negative predictive value to exclude significant fibrosis was 88.4%. This predictive power is superior to other non-invasive models using common parameters, including the AST/platelet/GGT/AFP (APGA index, AST/platelet ratio index (APRI, and the FIB-4 index (AUROC of 0.757, 0.708 and 0.723 respectively. Using the PAPAS index, 67.5% of liver biopsies for patients being considered for treatment with ALT <2×ULN could be avoided. CONCLUSION: The PAPAS index can predict and exclude significant fibrosis, and may reduce the need for liver biopsy in CHB patients.

Predicting memory performance in normal ageing using different measures of hippocampal size

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lye, T.C.; Creasey, H.; Kril, J.J.; Grayson, D.A.; Piguet, O.; Bennett, H.P.; Ridley, L.J.; Broe, G.A.

2006-01-01

A number of different methods have been employed to correct hippocampal volumes for individual variation in head size. Researchers have previously used qualitative visual inspection to gauge hippocampal atrophy. The purpose of this study was to determine the best measure(s) of hippocampal size for predicting memory functioning in 102 community-dwelling individuals over 80 years of age. Hippocampal size was estimated using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) volumetry and qualitative visual assessment. Right and left hippocampal volumes were adjusted by three different estimates of head size: total intracranial volume (TICV), whole-brain volume including ventricles (WB+V) and a more refined measure of whole-brain volume with ventricles extracted (WB). We compared the relative efficacy of these three volumetric adjustment methods and visual ratings of hippocampal size in predicting memory performance using linear regression. All four measures of hippocampal size were significant predictors of memory performance. TICV-adjusted volumes performed most poorly in accounting for variance in memory scores. Hippocampal volumes adjusted by either measure of whole-brain volume performed equally well, although qualitative visual ratings of the hippocampus were at least as effective as the volumetric measures in predicting memory performance in community-dwelling individuals in the ninth or tenth decade of life. (orig.)

Comparison of measured and predicted thermal mixing tests using improved finite difference technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, Y.A.; Rice, J.G.; Kim, J.H.

1983-01-01

The numerical diffusion introduced by the use of upwind formulations in the finite difference solution of the flow and energy equations for thermal mixing problems (cold water injection after small break LOCA in a PWR) was examined. The relative importance of numerical diffusion in the flow equations, compared to its effect on the energy equation was demonstrated. The flow field equations were solved using both first order accurate upwind, and second order accurate differencing schemes. The energy equation was treated using the conventional upwind and a mass weighted skew upwind scheme. Results presented for a simple test case showed that, for thermal mixing problems, the numerical diffusion was most significant in the energy equation. The numerical diffusion effect in the flow field equations was much less significant. A comparison of predictions using the skew upwind and the conventional upwind with experimental data from a two dimensional thermal mixing text are presented. The use of the skew upwind scheme showed a significant improvement in the accuracy of the steady state predicted temperatures. (orig./HP)

Bilirubin nomogram for prediction of significant hyperbilirubinemia in north Indian neonates.

Science.gov (United States)

Pathak, Umesh; Chawla, Deepak; Kaur, Saranjit; Jain, Suksham

2013-04-01

(i) To construct hour-specific serum total bilirubin (STB) nomogram in neonates born at =35 weeks of gestation; (ii)To evaluate efficacy of pre-discharge bilirubin measurement in predicting hyperbilirubinemia needing treatment. Diagnostic test performance in a prospective cohort study. Teaching hospital in Northern India. Healthy neonates with gestation =35 weeks or birth weight =2000 g. Serum total bilirubin was measured in all enrolled neonates at 24 ± 6, 72-96 and 96-144 h of postnatal age and when indicated clinically. Neonates were followed up during hospital stay and after discharge till completion of 7th postnatal day. Key outcome was significant hyperbilirubinemia (SHB) defined as need of phototherapy based on modified American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) guidelines. In neonates born at 38 or more weeks of gestation middle line and in neonates born at 37 or less completed weeks of gestation, lower line of phototherapy thresholds were used to initiate phototherapy. For construction of nomogram, STB values were clubbed in six-hour epochs (age ± 3 hours) for postnatal age up to 48 h and twelve-hour epochs (age ± 6 hours) for age beyond 48 h. Predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and likelihood ratio, by plotting receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calculating c-statistic. 997 neonates (birth weight: 2627 ± 536 g, gestation: 37.8 ± 1.5 weeks) were enrolled, of which 931 completed followup. Among enrolled neonates 344 (34.5%) were low birth weight. Rate of exclusive breastfeeding during hospital stay was more than 80%. Bilirubin nomogram was constructed using 40th, 75th and 95th percentile values of hour-specific bilirubin. Pre-discharge STB of =95th percentile was assigned to be in high-risk zone, between 75th and 94th centile in upper-intermediate risk zone, between 40th and 74th centile in lower-intermediate risk zone and below 40th

Accurate prediction of the functional significance of single nucleotide polymorphisms and mutations in the ABCA1 gene.

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Liam R Brunham

2005-12-01

Full Text Available The human genome contains an estimated 100,000 to 300,000 DNA variants that alter an amino acid in an encoded protein. However, our ability to predict which of these variants are functionally significant is limited. We used a bioinformatics approach to define the functional significance of genetic variation in the ABCA1 gene, a cholesterol transporter crucial for the metabolism of high density lipoprotein cholesterol. To predict the functional consequence of each coding single nucleotide polymorphism and mutation in this gene, we calculated a substitution position-specific evolutionary conservation score for each variant, which considers site-specific variation among evolutionarily related proteins. To test the bioinformatics predictions experimentally, we evaluated the biochemical consequence of these sequence variants by examining the ability of cell lines stably transfected with the ABCA1 alleles to elicit cholesterol efflux. Our bioinformatics approach correctly predicted the functional impact of greater than 94% of the naturally occurring variants we assessed. The bioinformatics predictions were significantly correlated with the degree of functional impairment of ABCA1 mutations (r2 = 0.62, p = 0.0008. These results have allowed us to define the impact of genetic variation on ABCA1 function and to suggest that the in silico evolutionary approach we used may be a useful tool in general for predicting the effects of DNA variation on gene function. In addition, our data suggest that considering patterns of positive selection, along with patterns of negative selection such as evolutionary conservation, may improve our ability to predict the functional effects of amino acid variation.

Predictive significance of standardized uptake value parameters of FDG-PET in patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duan, X-Y.; Wang, W.; Li, M.; Li, Y.; Guo, Y-M. [PET-CT Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi' an, Jiaotong University, Xi' an, Shaanxi (China)

2015-02-03

{sup 18}F-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) is widely used to diagnose and stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the predictive ability of different FDG standardized uptake values (SUVs) in 74 patients with newly diagnosed NSCLC. {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT scans were performed and different SUV parameters (SUV{sub max}, SUV{sub avg}, SUV{sub T/L}, and SUV{sub T/A}) obtained, and their relationship with clinical characteristics were investigated. Meanwhile, correlation and multiple stepwise regression analyses were performed to determine the primary predictor of SUVs for NSCLC. Age, gender, and tumor size significantly affected SUV parameters. The mean SUVs of squamous cell carcinoma were higher than those of adenocarcinoma. Poorly differentiated tumors exhibited higher SUVs than well-differentiated ones. Further analyses based on the pathologic type revealed that the SUV{sub max}, SUV{sub avg}, and SUV{sub T/L} of poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma tumors were higher than those of moderately or well-differentiated tumors. Among these four SUV parameters, SUV{sub T/L} was the primary predictor for tumor differentiation. However, in adenocarcinoma, SUV{sub max} was the determining factor for tumor differentiation. Our results showed that these four SUV parameters had predictive significance related to NSCLC tumor differentiation; SUV{sub T/L} appeared to be most useful overall, but SUV{sub max} was the best index for adenocarcinoma tumor differentiation.

Predicting future glacial lakes in Austria using different modelling approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Jan-Christoph; Helfricht, Kay; Prasicek, Günther; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

2017-04-01

Glacier retreat is one of the most apparent consequences of temperature rise in the 20th and 21th centuries in the European Alps. In Austria, more than 240 new lakes have formed in glacier forefields since the Little Ice Age. A similar signal is reported from many mountain areas worldwide. Glacial lakes can constitute important environmental and socio-economic impacts on high mountain systems including water resource management, sediment delivery, natural hazards, energy production and tourism. Their development significantly modifies the landscape configuration and visual appearance of high mountain areas. Knowledge on the location, number and extent of these future lakes can be used to assess potential impacts on high mountain geo-ecosystems and upland-lowland interactions. Information on new lakes is critical to appraise emerging threads and potentials for society. The recent development of regional ice thickness models and their combination with high resolution glacier surface data allows predicting the topography below current glaciers by subtracting ice thickness from glacier surface. Analyzing these modelled glacier bed surfaces reveals overdeepenings that represent potential locations for future lakes. In order to predict the location of future glacial lakes below recent glaciers in the Austrian Alps we apply different ice thickness models using high resolution terrain data and glacier outlines. The results are compared and validated with ice thickness data from geophysical surveys. Additionally, we run the models on three different glacier extents provided by the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969, 1998 and 2006. Results of this historical glacier extent modelling are compared to existing glacier lakes and discussed focusing on geomorphological impacts on lake evolution. We discuss model performance and observed differences in the results in order to assess the approach for a realistic prediction of future lake locations. The presentation delivers

Relative proportions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons differ between accumulation bioassays and chemical methods to predict bioavailability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gomez-Eyles, Jose L., E-mail: j.l.gomezeyles@reading.ac.u [University of Reading, School of Human and Environmental Sciences, Department of Soil Science, Reading RG6 6DW, Berkshire (United Kingdom); Collins, Chris D.; Hodson, Mark E. [University of Reading, School of Human and Environmental Sciences, Department of Soil Science, Reading RG6 6DW, Berkshire (United Kingdom)

2010-01-15

Chemical methods to predict the bioavailable fraction of organic contaminants are usually validated in the literature by comparison with established bioassays. A soil spiked with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was aged over six months and subjected to butanol, cyclodextrin and tenax extractions as well as an exhaustive extraction to determine total PAH concentrations at several time points. Earthworm (Eisenia fetida) and rye grass root (Lolium multiflorum) accumulation bioassays were conducted in parallel. Butanol extractions gave the best relationship with earthworm accumulation (r{sup 2} <= 0.54, p <= 0.01); cyclodextrin, butanol and acetone-hexane extractions all gave good predictions of accumulation in rye grass roots (r{sup 2} <= 0.86, p <= 0.01). However, the profile of the PAHs extracted by the different chemical methods was significantly different (p < 0.01) to that accumulated in the organisms. Biota accumulated a higher proportion of the heavier 4-ringed PAHs. It is concluded that bioaccumulation is a complex process that cannot be predicted by measuring the bioavailable fraction alone. - The ability of chemical methods to predict PAH accumulation in Eisenia fetida and Lolium multiflorum was hindered by the varied metabolic fate of the different PAHs within the organisms.

Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik A; Madsen, Henrik; Kariniotakis, George

2007-01-01

This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the definition of prediction risk indices is given. Such skill forecasts are based on the dispersion of ensemble members for a single prediction horizon, or over a set of successive look-ahead times. It is shown on the test case of a Danish offshore wind farm how prediction risk indices may be related to several levels of forecast uncertainty (and energy imbalances). Wind power ensemble predictions are derived from the transformation of ECMWF and NCEP ensembles of meteorological variables to power, as well as by a lagged average approach alternative. The ability of risk indices calculated from the various types of ensembles forecasts to resolve among situations with different levels of uncertainty is discussed

Two distinct groups within the Bacillus subtilis group display significantly different spore heat resistance properties.

Science.gov (United States)

Berendsen, Erwin M; Zwietering, Marcel H; Kuipers, Oscar P; Wells-Bennik, Marjon H J

2015-02-01

The survival of bacterial spores after heat treatment and the subsequent germination and outgrowth in a food product can lead to spoilage of the food product and economical losses. Prediction of time-temperature conditions that lead to sufficient inactivation requires access to detailed spore thermal inactivation kinetics of relevant model strains. In this study, the thermal inactivation kinetics of spores of fourteen strains belonging to the Bacillus subtilis group were determined in detail, using both batch heating in capillary tubes and continuous flow heating in a micro heater. The inactivation data were fitted using a log linear model. Based on the spore heat resistance data, two distinct groups (p subtilis group could be identified. One group of strains had spores with an average D120 °C of 0.33 s, while the spores of the other group displayed significantly higher heat resistances, with an average D120 °C of 45.7 s. When comparing spore inactivation data obtained using batch- and continuous flow heating, the z-values were significantly different, hence extrapolation from one system to the other was not justified. This study clearly shows that heat resistances of spores from different strains in the B. subtilis group can vary greatly. Strains can be separated into two groups, to which different spore heat inactivation kinetics apply. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gender differences in the factors predicting initial engagement at cardiac rehabilitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Galdas, Paul Michael; Harrison, Alexander Stephen; Doherty, Patrick

2018-01-01

To determine whether there are gender differences in the factors that predict attendance at the initial cardiac rehabilitation baseline assessment (CR engagement) after referral. Using data from the National Audit of Cardiac Rehabilitation, we analysed data on 95 638 patients referred to CR following a cardiovascular diagnosis/treatment between 2013 and 2016. Eighteen factors that have been shown in previous research to be important predictors of CR participation were investigated and grouped into four categories: sociodemographic factors, cardiac risk factors, patient medical status and service-level factors. Logistic binary regression models were built for male patients and female patients, assessing the likelihood for CR engagement. Each included predictors such as age, number of comorbidities and social deprivation score. There were no important differences in the factors that predict the likelihood of CR engagement in men and women. Seven factors associated with a reduced probability of CR engagement, and eight factors associated with increased probability, were identified. Fourteen of the 15 factors identified as predicting the likelihood for engagement/non-engagement were the same for both men and women. Increasing age, being South Asian or non-white ethnicity (other than Black) and being single were all associated with a reduced likelihood of attending an initial CR baseline assessment in both men and women. Male patients with diabetes were 11% less likely to engage with CR; however, there was no significant association in women. Results showed that the overwhelmingly important determinant of CR engagement observed in both men and women was receiving an invitation to attend an assessment session (OR 4.223 men/4.033women; pgender differences in predictors of CR uptake should probably be more nuanced and informed by the stage of the patient care pathway.

The Urinary Microbiome Differs Significantly Between Patients With Chronic Prostatitis/Chronic Pelvic Pain Syndrome and Controls as Well as Between Patients With Different Clinical Phenotypes.

Science.gov (United States)

Shoskes, Daniel A; Altemus, Jessica; Polackwich, Alan S; Tucky, Barbara; Wang, Hannah; Eng, Charis

2016-06-01

To study the urinary microbiome of patients with Chronic Prostatitis/Chronic Pelvic Pain Syndrome (CP/CPPS) compared with controls. We identified 25 patients with CP/CPPS and 25 men who were either asymptomatic or only had urinary symptoms. Midstream urine was collected. Symptom severity was measured with the National Institutes of Health Chronic Prostatitis Symptom Index and clinical phenotype with UPOINT. Total DNA was extracted from the urine pellet and bacterial-specific 16Sr-DNA-capture identified by MiSeq sequencing. Taxonomic and functional bioinformatic analyses used principal coordinate analysis (PCoA)/MacQIIME, LEfSe, and PiCRUSt algorithms. Patients and controls were similar ages (52.3 vs 57.0 years, P = .27). For patients, median duration was 48 months, mean Chronic Prostatitis Symptom Index was 26.0, and mean UPOINT domains was 3.6. Weighted 3D UniFrac PCoA revealed tighter clustering of controls distinct from the wider clustering of cases (P = .001; α-diversity P = .005). Seventeen clades were overrepresented in patients, for example, Clostridia, and 5 were underrepresented, eg, Bacilli, resulting in predicted perturbations in functional pathways. PiCRUSt inferred differentially regulated pathways between cases and controls that may be of relevance including sporulation, chemotaxis, and pyruvate metabolism. PCoA-derived microbiomic differences were noted for neurologic/systemic domains (P = .06), whereas LEfSe identified differences associated with each of the 6 clinical features. Urinary microbiomes from patients with CP/CPPS have significantly higher alpha(phylogenetic) diversity which cluster differently from controls, and higher counts of Clostridia compared with controls, resulting in predicted perturbations of functional pathways which could suggest metabolite-specific targeted treatment. Several measures of severity and clinical phenotype have significant microbiome differences. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights

Forecasting Significant Societal Events Using The Embers Streaming Predictive Analytics System.

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, Andy; Katz, Graham; Summers, Kristen; Ackermann, Chris; Zavorin, Ilya; Lim, Zunsik; Muthiah, Sathappan; Butler, Patrick; Self, Nathan; Zhao, Liang; Lu, Chang-Tien; Khandpur, Rupinder Paul; Fayed, Youssef; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2014-12-01

Developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity Open Source Indicators program, Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates (EMBERS) is a large-scale big data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest events on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November 2012 and delivers approximately 50 predictions each day for countries of Latin America. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, loosely coupled, shared-nothing architecture using ZeroMQ as its messaging backbone and JSON as its wire data format. It is deployed on Amazon Web Services using an entirely automated deployment process. We describe the architecture of the system, some of the design tradeoffs encountered during development, and specifics of the machine learning models underlying EMBERS. We also present a detailed prospective evaluation of EMBERS in forecasting significant societal events in the past 2 years.

Test for the statistical significance of differences between ROC curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metz, C.E.; Kronman, H.B.

1979-01-01

A test for the statistical significance of observed differences between two measured Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves has been designed and evaluated. The set of observer response data for each ROC curve is assumed to be independent and to arise from a ROC curve having a form which, in the absence of statistical fluctuations in the response data, graphs as a straight line on double normal-deviate axes. To test the significance of an apparent difference between two measured ROC curves, maximum likelihood estimates of the two parameters of each curve and the associated parameter variances and covariance are calculated from the corresponding set of observer response data. An approximate Chi-square statistic with two degrees of freedom is then constructed from the differences between the parameters estimated for each ROC curve and from the variances and covariances of these estimates. This statistic is known to be truly Chi-square distributed only in the limit of large numbers of trials in the observer performance experiments. Performance of the statistic for data arising from a limited number of experimental trials was evaluated. Independent sets of rating scale data arising from the same underlying ROC curve were paired, and the fraction of differences found (falsely) significant was compared to the significance level, α, used with the test. Although test performance was found to be somewhat dependent on both the number of trials in the data and the position of the underlying ROC curve in the ROC space, the results for various significance levels showed the test to be reliable under practical experimental conditions

Individual differences in fluid intelligence predicts inattentional blindness in a sample of older adults: a preliminary study.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Shea, Deirdre M; Fieo, Robert A

2015-07-01

Previous research has shown that aging increases susceptibility to inattentional blindness (Graham and Burke, Psychol Aging 26:162, 2011) as well as individual differences in cognitive ability related to working memory and executive functions in separate studies. Therefore, the present study was conducted in an attempt to bridge a gap that involved investigating 'age-sensitive' cognitive abilities that may predict inattentional blindness in a sample of older adults. We investigated whether individual differences in general fluid intelligence and speed of processing would predict inattentional blindness in our sample of older adults. Thirty-six healthy older adults took part in the study. Using the inattentional blindness paradigm developed by Most et al. (Psychol Rev 112:217, 2005), we investigated whether rates of inattentional blindness could be predicted by participant's performance on the Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices and a choice-reaction time task. A Mann-Whitney U test revealed that a higher score on the Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices was significantly associated with lower incidences of inattentional blindness. However, a t test revealed that choice-reaction times were not significantly associated with inattentional blindness. Preliminary results from the present study suggest that individual differences in general fluid intelligence are predictive of inattentional blindness in older adults but not speed of processing. Moreover, our findings are consistent with previous studies that have suggested executive attention control may be the source of these individual differences. These findings also highlight the association between attention and general fluid intelligence and how it may impact environmental awareness. Future research would benefit from repeating these analyses in a larger sample and also including a younger comparison group.

Role of hyaluronic acid and laminin as serum markers for predicting significant fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feng Li

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of serum HA and LN as serum markers for predicting significant fibrosis in CHB patients. METHODS: Serum HA and LN levels of 87 patients with chronic hepatitis B and 19 blood donors were assayed by RIA. Liver fibrosis stages were determined according to the Metavir scoring-system. The diagnostic performances of all indexes were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. RESULTS: Serum HA and LN concentrations increased significantly with the stage of hepatic fibrosis, which showed positive correlation with the stages of liver fibrosis (HA: r = 0.875, p < 0.001; LN: r = 0.610, p < 0.001. There were significant differences of serum HA and LN levels between F2-4 group in comparison with those in F0-F1 group (p < 0.001 and controls (p < 0.001, respectively. From ROC curves, 185.3 ng/mL as the optimal cut-off value of serum HA for diagnosis of significant fibrosis, giving its sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, LR+, LR- and AC of 84.2%, 83.3%, 90.6%, 73.5%, 5.04, 0.19 and 83.9, respectively. While 132.7 ng/mL was the optimal cut-off value of serum LN, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, LR+, LR- and AC were 71.9%, 80.0%, 87.2%, 60.0%, 3.59%, 0.35% and 74.7, respectively. Combinations of HA and LN by serial tests showed a perfect specificity and PPV of 100%, at the same time sensitivity declined to 63.2% and LR+ increased to 18.9, while parallel tests revealed a good sensitivity of 94.7%, NPV to 86.4%, and LR- declined to 0.08. CONCLUSIONS: Serum HA and LN concentrations showed positive correlation with the stages of liver fibrosis. Detection of serum HA and LN in predicting significant fibrosis showed good diagnostic performance, which would be further optimized by combination of the two indices. HA and LN would be clinically useful serum markers for predicting significant fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B, when liver biopsy is

Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability.

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Joshua J. Lawler; Denis White; Ronald P. Neilson; Andrew R. Blaustein

2006-01-01

Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common data set, we investigated the potential implications of alternative modeling approaches for...

Artificial neural networks to predict presence of significant pathology in patients presenting to routine colorectal clinics.

Science.gov (United States)

Maslekar, S; Gardiner, A B; Monson, J R T; Duthie, G S

2010-12-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are computer programs used to identify complex relations within data. Routine predictions of presence of colorectal pathology based on population statistics have little meaning for individual patient. This results in large number of unnecessary lower gastrointestinal endoscopies (LGEs - colonoscopies and flexible sigmoidoscopies). We aimed to develop a neural network algorithm that can accurately predict presence of significant pathology in patients attending routine outpatient clinics for gastrointestinal symptoms. Ethics approval was obtained and the study was monitored according to International Committee on Harmonisation - Good Clinical Practice (ICH-GCP) standards. Three-hundred patients undergoing LGE prospectively completed a specifically developed questionnaire, which included 40 variables based on clinical symptoms, signs, past- and family history. Complete data sets of 100 patients were used to train the ANN; the remaining data was used for internal validation. The primary output used was positive finding on LGE, including polyps, cancer, diverticular disease or colitis. For external validation, the ANN was applied to data from 50 patients in primary care and also compared with the predictions of four clinicians. Clear correlation between actual data value and ANN predictions were found (r = 0.931; P = 0.0001). The predictive accuracy of ANN was 95% in training group and 90% (95% CI 84-96) in the internal validation set and this was significantly higher than the clinical accuracy (75%). ANN also showed high accuracy in the external validation group (89%). Artificial neural networks offer the possibility of personal prediction of outcome for individual patients presenting in clinics with colorectal symptoms, making it possible to make more appropriate requests for lower gastrointestinal endoscopy. © 2010 The Authors. Colorectal Disease © 2010 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Combining modularity, conservation, and interactions of proteins significantly increases precision and coverage of protein function prediction

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Sers Christine T

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background While the number of newly sequenced genomes and genes is constantly increasing, elucidation of their function still is a laborious and time-consuming task. This has led to the development of a wide range of methods for predicting protein functions in silico. We report on a new method that predicts function based on a combination of information about protein interactions, orthology, and the conservation of protein networks in different species. Results We show that aggregation of these independent sources of evidence leads to a drastic increase in number and quality of predictions when compared to baselines and other methods reported in the literature. For instance, our method generates more than 12,000 novel protein functions for human with an estimated precision of ~76%, among which are 7,500 new functional annotations for 1,973 human proteins that previously had zero or only one function annotated. We also verified our predictions on a set of genes that play an important role in colorectal cancer (MLH1, PMS2, EPHB4 and could confirm more than 73% of them based on evidence in the literature. Conclusions The combination of different methods into a single, comprehensive prediction method infers thousands of protein functions for every species included in the analysis at varying, yet always high levels of precision and very good coverage.

Testing the Difference of Correlated Agreement Coefficients for Statistical Significance

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Gwet, Kilem L.

2016-01-01

This article addresses the problem of testing the difference between two correlated agreement coefficients for statistical significance. A number of authors have proposed methods for testing the difference between two correlated kappa coefficients, which require either the use of resampling methods or the use of advanced statistical modeling…

Age differences in recall and predicting recall of action events and words.

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McDonald-Miszczak, L; Hubley, A M; Hultsch, D F

1996-03-01

Age differences in recall and prediction of recall were examined with different memory tasks. We asked 36 younger (19-28 yrs) and 36 older (60-81 yrs) women to provide both global and item-by-item predictions of their recall, and then to recall either (a) Subject Performance Tasks (SPTs), (b) verb-noun word-pairs memorized in list-like fashion (Word-Pairs), or (c) nonsense verb-noun word-pairs (Nonsense-Pairs) over three experimental trials. Based on previous research, we hypothesized that these tasks would vary in relative difficulty and flexibility of encoding. The results indicated that (a) age differences in global predictions (task specific self-efficacy) and recall performance across trials were minimized with SPT as compared with verbal materials, (b) global predictions were higher and more accurate for SPT as compared to verbal materials, and (c) item-by-item predictions were most accurate for materials encoded with the most flexibility (Nonsense Pairs). The results suggest that SPTs may provide some level of environmental support to reduce age differences in performance and task-specific self-efficacy, but that memory monitoring may depend on specific characteristics of the stimuli (i.e., flexibility of encoding) rather than their verbal or nonverbal nature.

Predicting significant torso trauma.

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Nirula, Ram; Talmor, Daniel; Brasel, Karen

2005-07-01

Identification of motor vehicle crash (MVC) characteristics associated with thoracoabdominal injury would advance the development of automatic crash notification systems (ACNS) by improving triage and response times. Our objective was to determine the relationships between MVC characteristics and thoracoabdominal trauma to develop a torso injury probability model. Drivers involved in crashes from 1993 to 2001 within the National Automotive Sampling System were reviewed. Relationships between torso injury and MVC characteristics were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the model to current ACNS models. There were a total of 56,466 drivers. Age, ejection, braking, avoidance, velocity, restraints, passenger-side impact, rollover, and vehicle weight and type were associated with injury (p < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (83.9) was significantly greater than current ACNS models. We have developed a thoracoabdominal injury probability model that may improve patient triage when used with ACNS.

Statistical significance of theoretical predictions: A new dimension in nuclear structure theories (I)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DUDEK, J; SZPAK, B; FORNAL, B; PORQUET, M-G

2011-01-01

In this and the follow-up article we briefly discuss what we believe represents one of the most serious problems in contemporary nuclear structure: the question of statistical significance of parametrizations of nuclear microscopic Hamiltonians and the implied predictive power of the underlying theories. In the present Part I, we introduce the main lines of reasoning of the so-called Inverse Problem Theory, an important sub-field in the contemporary Applied Mathematics, here illustrated on the example of the Nuclear Mean-Field Approach.

Prediction of cervical cancer recurrence using textural features extracted from 18F-FDG PET images acquired with different scanners.

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Reuzé, Sylvain; Orlhac, Fanny; Chargari, Cyrus; Nioche, Christophe; Limkin, Elaine; Riet, François; Escande, Alexandre; Haie-Meder, Christine; Dercle, Laurent; Gouy, Sébastien; Buvat, Irène; Deutsch, Eric; Robert, Charlotte

2017-06-27

To identify an imaging signature predicting local recurrence for locally advanced cervical cancer (LACC) treated by chemoradiation and brachytherapy from baseline 18F-FDG PET images, and to evaluate the possibility of gathering images from two different PET scanners in a radiomic study. 118 patients were included retrospectively. Two groups (G1, G2) were defined according to the PET scanner used for image acquisition. Eleven radiomic features were extracted from delineated cervical tumors to evaluate: (i) the predictive value of features for local recurrence of LACC, (ii) their reproducibility as a function of the scanner within a hepatic reference volume, (iii) the impact of voxel size on feature values. Eight features were statistically significant predictors of local recurrence in G1 (p features were significantly different between G1 and G2 in the liver. Spatial resampling was not sufficient to explain the stratification effect. This study showed that radiomic features could predict local recurrence of LACC better than SUVmax. Further investigation is needed before applying a model designed using data from one PET scanner to another.

Consistency of test behaviour and individual difference in prescision of prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meijer, R.R.

1998-01-01

Ghiselli ((1956, 1960) argued that the precision of prediction on the basis of a test may vary for different individuals. To quantify the individual precision of prediction he compared the observed criterion scores with the expected criterion scores estimated on the basis of the total scores on a

Field Dependence/Independence Cognitive Styles: Are They Significant at Different Levels of Vocabulary Knowledge?

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Rostampour, Mohammad; Niroomand, Seyyedeh Mitra

2014-01-01

Cognitive styles influence the performance of language learners and can predict their success in the process of language learning. Considering field dependence/independence cognitive styles, this study aims at determining if they are significant in English vocabulary knowledge. A number of EFL university students took part in the study. The…

Estimating significances of differences between slopes: A new methodology and software

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vasco M. N. C. S. Vieira

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Determining the significance of slope differences is a common requirement in studies of self-thinning, ontogeny and sexual dimorphism, among others. This has long been carried out testing for the overlap of the bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals of the slopes. However, the numerical random re-sampling with repetition favours the occurrence of re-combinations yielding largely diverging slopes, widening the confidence intervals and thus increasing the chances of overlooking significant differences. To overcome this problem a permutation test simulating the null hypothesis of no differences between slopes is proposed. This new methodology, when applied both to artificial and factual data, showed an enhanced ability to differentiate slopes.

A prediction score for significant coronary artery disease in Chinese patients ≥50 years old referred for rheumatic valvular heart disease surgery.

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Xu, Zhenjun; Pan, Jun; Chen, Tao; Zhou, Qing; Wang, Qiang; Cao, Hailong; Fan, Fudong; Luo, Xuan; Ge, Min; Wang, Dongjin

2018-04-01

Our goal was to establish a prediction score and protocol for the preoperative prediction of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with rheumatic valvular heart disease. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, we validated the model based on 490 patients without a history of myocardial infarction and who underwent preoperative screening coronary angiography. Significant CAD was defined as ≥50% narrowing of the diameter of the lumen of the left main coronary artery or ≥70% narrowing of the diameter of the lumen of the left anterior descending coronary artery, left circumflex artery or right coronary artery. Significant CAD was present in 9.8% of patients. Age, smoking, diabetes mellitus, diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and ischaemia evident on an electrocardiogram were independently associated with significant CAD and were entered into the multivariate model. According to the logistic regression predictive risk score, preoperative coronary angiography is recommended in (i) postmenopausal women between 50 and 59 years of age with ≥9.1% logistic regression predictive risk score; (ii) postmenopausal women who are ≥60 years old with a logistic regression predictive risk score ≥6.6% and (iii) men ≥50 years old whose logistic regression predictive risk score was ≥2.8%. Based on this predictive model, 246 (50.2%) preoperative coronary angiograms could be safely avoided. The negative predictive value of the model was 98.8% (246 of 249). This model was accurate for the preoperative prediction of significant CAD in patients with rheumatic valvular heart disease. This model must be validated in larger cohorts and various populations.

Faculty Decisions on Serials Subscriptions Differ Significantly from Decisions Predicted by a Bibliometric Tool.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sue F. Phelps

2016-03-01

of the faculty choices. The p-value for this relationship was less than 0.0001, also indicating that the result was not by chance. A quadratic model plotted alongside the previous linear model follows a similar pattern. The p-value of the comparison is 0.0002, which indicates the quadratic model’s fit cannot be explained by random chance. Main Results – The authors point out three outstanding findings. First, the match rate between faculty valuations and bibliometric scores for serials is 65%. This exceeds the 50% rate that would indicate random association, but also indicates a statistically significant difference between faculty and bibliometric valuations. Secondly, the match rate with the bibliometric scores for titles that faculty chose to keep (73% was higher than those they chose to cancel (54%. Thirdly, the match rate increased with higher bibliometric scores. Conclusions – Though the authors identify only a modest degree of similarity between faculty and bibliometric valuations of serials, it is noted that there is more agreement in the higher valued serials than the lower valued serials. With that in mind, librarians might focus faculty review on the lower scoring titles in the future, taking into consideration that unique faculty interests may drive selection at that level and would need to be balanced with the mission of the library.

Functional significance of genetically different symbiotic algae Symbiodinium in a coral reef symbiosis.

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Loram, J E; Trapido-Rosenthal, H G; Douglas, A E

2007-11-01

The giant sea anemone Condylactis gigantea associates with members of two clades of the dinoflagellate alga Symbiodinium, either singly or in mixed infection, as revealed by clade-specific quantitative polymerase chain reaction of large subunit ribosomal DNA. To explore the functional significance of this molecular variation, the fate of photosynthetically fixed carbon was investigated by (14)C radiotracer experiments. Symbioses with algae of clades A and B released ca. 30-40% of fixed carbon to the animal tissues. Incorporation into the lipid fraction and the low molecular weight fraction dominated by amino acids was significantly higher in symbioses with algae of clade A than of clade B, suggesting that the genetically different algae in C. gigantea are not functionally equivalent. Symbioses with mixed infections yielded intermediate values, such that this functional trait of the symbiosis can be predicted from the traits of the contributing algae. Coral and sea anemone symbioses with Symbiodinium break down at elevated temperature, a process known as 'coral bleaching'. The functional response of the C. gigantea symbiosis to heat stress varied between the algae of clades A and B, with particularly depressed incorporation of photosynthetic carbon into lipid of the clade B algae, which are more susceptible to high temperature than the algae of clade A. This study provides a first exploration of how the core symbiotic function of photosynthate transfer to the host varies with the genotype of Symbiodinium, an algal symbiont which underpins corals and, hence, coral reef ecosystems.

Physiologically-based, predictive analytics using the heart-rate-to-Systolic-Ratio significantly improves the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction compared to SIRS.

Science.gov (United States)

Danner, Omar K; Hendren, Sandra; Santiago, Ethel; Nye, Brittany; Abraham, Prasad

2017-04-01

Enhancing the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment of severe sepsis by using physiologically-based, predictive analytical strategies has not been fully explored. We hypothesize assessment of heart-rate-to-systolic-ratio significantly increases the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction after emergency department (ED) presentation. We evaluated the records of 53,313 ED patients from a large, urban teaching hospital between January and June 2015. The HR-to-systolic ratio was compared to SIRS criteria for sepsis prediction. There were 884 patients with discharge diagnoses of sepsis, severe sepsis, and/or septic shock. Variations in three presenting variables, heart rate, systolic BP and temperature were determined to be primary early predictors of sepsis with a 74% (654/884) accuracy compared to 34% (304/884) using SIRS criteria (p < 0.0001)in confirmed septic patients. Physiologically-based predictive analytics improved the accuracy and expediency of sepsis identification via detection of variations in HR-to-systolic ratio. This approach may lead to earlier sepsis workup and life-saving interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Different histopathological subtypes of Hodgkin lymphoma show significantly different levels of FDG uptake

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hutchings, Martin; Loft, Annika; Hansen, Mads

2006-01-01

) patients, 20.8 g/ml in 11 mixed cellularity (MC) patients, and 19.5 g/ml in four patients with unclassified classical HL (CHL-NOS), (ANOVA, p = 0.011). Out of 780 sites (600 lymph node regions plus 180 organs), 208 sites were found to be affected with HL. Mean SUV(max) was 8.3 g/ml in the 12 sites with NLP......, 11.2 g/ml in the 147 sites affected with NS, 14.6 g/ml in the 36 sites with MC, and 13.1 g/ml in the 13 sites with CHL-NOS (ANOVA, p = 0.002). There is a significant difference in FDG/glucose uptake between the different histopathological subtypes of HL....

One arm exercise induces significant interarm diastolic blood pressure difference.

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Hong, Dezhi; Wang, Jiwei; Su, Hai; Xu, Jingsong; Liu, Yanna; Peng, Qiang; Wang, Lijuan

2011-06-01

This study is designed to investigate the inducing effect of one arm exercise on interarm difference (IAD) in the blood pressure (BP). Fifty healthy young participants were included in the study. Three-minute exercises of the right arm elbow flexion and extension were performed. The bilateral brachial BP was simultaneously measured with two automatic BP measurement devices before (basic) and immediately 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 min after exercise. The absolute difference in the systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) between the left and right BP of at least 10 mmHg was recognized as sIAD and dIAD. The baseline data of the SBP and DBP in left and right arms revealed no significant difference (SBP: 110 ± 10 vs. 111 ± 11 mmHg; DBP: 66 ± 8 vs. 66 ± 9 mmHg, both not significant). The prevalence of dIAD was 2% at the baseline. However, this prevalence increased to 80% at 0 min, as right arm exercise induced the right DBP decrease and left DBP increase, and then the prevalence decreased gradually within a 30-min recovery period. The prevalence of sIAD was zero at the baseline and the maximal prevalence was 8% during the 20-min postexercise period. One arm exercise can lead to a significant IAD in DBP. Any arm exercise should be avoided before BP measurement.

Personality traits and individual differences predict threat-induced changes in postural control.

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Zaback, Martin; Cleworth, Taylor W; Carpenter, Mark G; Adkin, Allan L

2015-04-01

This study explored whether specific personality traits and individual differences could predict changes in postural control when presented with a height-induced postural threat. Eighty-two healthy young adults completed questionnaires to assess trait anxiety, trait movement reinvestment (conscious motor processing, movement self-consciousness), physical risk-taking, and previous experience with height-related activities. Tests of static (quiet standing) and anticipatory (rise to toes) postural control were completed under low and high postural threat conditions. Personality traits and individual differences significantly predicted height-induced changes in static, but not anticipatory postural control. Individuals less prone to taking physical risks were more likely to lean further away from the platform edge and sway at higher frequencies and smaller amplitudes. Individuals more prone to conscious motor processing were more likely to lean further away from the platform edge and sway at larger amplitudes. Individuals more self-conscious about their movement appearance were more likely to sway at smaller amplitudes. Evidence is also provided that relationships between physical risk-taking and changes in static postural control are mediated through changes in fear of falling and physiological arousal. Results from this study may have indirect implications for balance assessment and treatment; however, further work exploring these factors in patient populations is necessary. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mapping Soil Properties of Africa at 250 m Resolution: Random Forests Significantly Improve Current Predictions.

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Tomislav Hengl

Full Text Available 80% of arable land in Africa has low soil fertility and suffers from physical soil problems. Additionally, significant amounts of nutrients are lost every year due to unsustainable soil management practices. This is partially the result of insufficient use of soil management knowledge. To help bridge the soil information gap in Africa, the Africa Soil Information Service (AfSIS project was established in 2008. Over the period 2008-2014, the AfSIS project compiled two point data sets: the Africa Soil Profiles (legacy database and the AfSIS Sentinel Site database. These data sets contain over 28 thousand sampling locations and represent the most comprehensive soil sample data sets of the African continent to date. Utilizing these point data sets in combination with a large number of covariates, we have generated a series of spatial predictions of soil properties relevant to the agricultural management--organic carbon, pH, sand, silt and clay fractions, bulk density, cation-exchange capacity, total nitrogen, exchangeable acidity, Al content and exchangeable bases (Ca, K, Mg, Na. We specifically investigate differences between two predictive approaches: random forests and linear regression. Results of 5-fold cross-validation demonstrate that the random forests algorithm consistently outperforms the linear regression algorithm, with average decreases of 15-75% in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE across soil properties and depths. Fitting and running random forests models takes an order of magnitude more time and the modelling success is sensitive to artifacts in the input data, but as long as quality-controlled point data are provided, an increase in soil mapping accuracy can be expected. Results also indicate that globally predicted soil classes (USDA Soil Taxonomy, especially Alfisols and Mollisols help improve continental scale soil property mapping, and are among the most important predictors. This indicates a promising potential for transferring

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

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Xuezhen Ge

Full Text Available As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier (Coleoptera: Curculionidae has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010 and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040 provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0. Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Attractiveness Differences Between Twins Predicts Evaluations of Self and Co-Twin

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Principe, Connor P.; Rosen, Lisa H.; Taylor-Partridge, Teresa; Langlois, Judith H.

2012-01-01

One of the most consistent findings in psychology shows that people prefer and make positive attributions about attractive compared with unattractive people. The goal of the current study was to determine the power of attractiveness effects by testing whether these social judgments are made where attractiveness differences are smallest: between twins. Differences in facial attractiveness predicted twins’ evaluations of self and their co-twin (n = 158; 54 male). In twin pairs, the more attractive twin judged their less attractive sibling as less physically attractive, athletic, socially competent, and emotionally stable. The less attractive twin did the reverse. Given that even negligible differences in facial attractiveness predicted self and co-twin attitudes, these results provide the strongest test yet of appearance-based stereotypes. PMID:23467329

Individual differences in maternal response to immune challenge predict offspring behavior: Contribution of environmental factors

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Bronson, Stefanie L.; Ahlbrand, Rebecca; Horn, Paul S.; Kern, Joseph R.; Richtand, Neil M.

2011-01-01

Maternal infection during pregnancy elevates risk for schizophrenia and related disorders in offspring. Converging evidence suggests the maternal inflammatory response mediates the interaction between maternal infection, altered brain development, and behavioral outcome. The extent to which individual differences in the maternal response to immune challenge influence the development of these abnormalities is unknown. The present study investigated the impact of individual differences in maternal response to the viral mimic polyinosinic:polycytidylic acid (poly I:C) on offspring behavior. We observed significant variability in body weight alterations of pregnant rats induced by administration of poly I:C on gestational day 14. Furthermore, the presence or absence of maternal weight loss predicted MK-801 and amphetamine stimulated locomotor abnormalities in offspring. MK-801 stimulated locomotion was altered in offspring of all poly I:C treated dams; however, the presence or absence of maternal weight loss resulted in decreased and modestly increased locomotion, respectively. Adult offspring of poly I:C treated dams that lost weight exhibited significantly decreased amphetamine stimulated locomotion, while offspring of poly I:C treated dams without weight loss performed similarly to vehicle controls. Social isolation and increased maternal age predicted weight loss in response to poly I:C but not vehicle injection. In combination, these data identify environmental factors associated with the maternal response to immune challenge and functional outcome of offspring exposed to maternal immune activation. PMID:21255612

Further evidence for population specific differences in the effect of DNA markers and gender on eye colour prediction in forensics.

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Pośpiech, Ewelina; Karłowska-Pik, Joanna; Ziemkiewicz, Bartosz; Kukla, Magdalena; Skowron, Małgorzata; Wojas-Pelc, Anna; Branicki, Wojciech

2016-07-01

The genetics of eye colour has been extensively studied over the past few years, and the identified polymorphisms have been applied with marked success in the field of Forensic DNA Phenotyping. A picture that arises from evaluation of the currently available eye colour prediction markers shows that only the analysis of HERC2-OCA2 complex has similar effectiveness in different populations, while the predictive potential of other loci may vary significantly. Moreover, the role of gender in the explanation of human eye colour variation should not be neglected in some populations. In the present study, we re-investigated the data for 1020 Polish individuals and using neural networks and logistic regression methods explored predictive capacity of IrisPlex SNPs and gender in this population sample. In general, neural networks provided higher prediction accuracy comparing to logistic regression (AUC increase by 0.02-0.06). Four out of six IrisPlex SNPs were associated with eye colour in the studied population. HERC2 rs12913832, OCA2 rs1800407 and SLC24A4 rs12896399 were found to be the most important eye colour predictors (p Gender was found to be significantly associated with eye colour with males having ~1.5 higher odds for blue eye colour comparing to females (p = 0.002) and was ranked as the third most important factor in blue/non-blue eye colour determination. However, the implementation of gender into the developed prediction models had marginal and ambiguous impact on the overall accuracy of prediction confirming that the effect of gender on eye colour in this population is small. Our study indicated the advantage of neural networks in prediction modeling in forensics and provided additional evidence for population specific differences in the predictive importance of the IrisPlex SNPs and gender.

A critical review of predictive models for the onset of significant void in forced-convection subcooled boiling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorra, H.; Lee, S.C.; Bankoff, S.G.

1993-06-01

This predictive models for the onset of significant void (OSV) in forced-convection subcooled boiling are reviewed and compared with extensive data. Three analytical models and seven empirical correlations are considered in this review. These models and correlations are put onto a common basis and are compared, again on a common basis, with a variety of data. The evaluation of their range of validity and applicability under various operating conditions are discussed. The results show that the correlations of Saha-Zuber seems to be the best model to predict OSV in vertical subcooled boiling flow

Different Vocal Parameters Predict Perceptions of Dominance and Attractiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Hodges-Simeon, Carolyn R; Gaulin, Steven J C; Puts, David A

2010-12-01

Low mean fundamental frequency (F(0)) in men's voices has been found to positively influence perceptions of dominance by men and attractiveness by women using standardized speech. Using natural speech obtained during an ecologically valid social interaction, we examined relationships between multiple vocal parameters and dominance and attractiveness judgments. Male voices from an unscripted dating game were judged by men for physical and social dominance and by women in fertile and non-fertile menstrual cycle phases for desirability in short-term and long-term relationships. Five vocal parameters were analyzed: mean F(0) (an acoustic correlate of vocal fold size), F(0) variation, intensity (loudness), utterance duration, and formant dispersion (D(f), an acoustic correlate of vocal tract length). Parallel but separate ratings of speech transcripts served as controls for content. Multiple regression analyses were used to examine the independent contributions of each of the predictors. Physical dominance was predicted by low F(0) variation and physically dominant word content. Social dominance was predicted only by socially dominant word content. Ratings of attractiveness by women were predicted by low mean F(0), low D(f), high intensity, and attractive word content across cycle phase and mating context. Low D(f) was perceived as attractive by fertile-phase women only. We hypothesize that competitors and potential mates may attend more strongly to different components of men's voices because of the different types of information these vocal parameters provide.

Further evidence for population specific differences in the effect of DNA markers and gender on eye colour prediction in forensics

OpenAIRE

Po?piech, Ewelina; Kar?owska-Pik, Joanna; Ziemkiewicz, Bartosz; Kukla, Magdalena; Skowron, Ma?gorzata; Wojas-Pelc, Anna; Branicki, Wojciech

2016-01-01

The genetics of eye colour has been extensively studied over the past few years, and the identified polymorphisms have been applied with marked success in the field of Forensic DNA Phenotyping. A picture that arises from evaluation of the currently available eye colour prediction markers shows that only the analysis of HERC2-OCA2 complex has similar effectiveness in different populations, while the predictive potential of other loci may vary significantly. Moreover, the role of gender in the ...

Predicting Electrocardiogram and Arterial Blood Pressure Waveforms with Different Echo State Network Architectures

Science.gov (United States)

2014-11-01

Predicting Electrocardiogram and Arterial Blood Pressure Waveforms with Different Echo State Network Architectures Allan Fong, MS1,3, Ranjeev...the medical staff in Intensive Care Units. The ability to predict electrocardiogram and arterial blood pressure waveforms can potentially help the...type of neural network for mining, understanding, and predicting electrocardiogram and arterial blood pressure waveforms. Several network

Significant change of predictions related to the future of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumitrache, Ion

2002-01-01

During the last two decades of the 20th century, nuclear power contribution increased slowly in the world. This trend was mainly determined by the commissioning of new nuclear power plants, NPP, in the non-developed countries, except for Japan and South Korea. Almost all the forecasts offered the image of the stagnant nuclear power business. Sweden, Germany, Holland and Belgium Governments made clear the intention to stop the production of electricity based on fission. Recently, despite the negative effects on nuclear power of the terrorism events of September 11, 2001, the predictions related to the nuclear power future become much more optimistic. USA, Japan, South Korea and Canada made clear that new NPPs will offer their significant electricity contribution several decades, even after years 2020-2030. Moreover, several old NPP from USA obtained the license for an additional 20 years period of operation. The analysis indicated that most of the existing NPP in USA may increase the level of the maximum global power defined by the initial design. In the European Union the situation is much more complicated. About 35% of the electricity is based now on fission. Several countries, like Sweden and Germany, maintain the position of phasing out the NPPs, as soon as the licensed life-time is over. Finland decided to build a new power plant. France is very favorable to nuclear power, but does not need more energy. In the UK several very old NPP will be shut down, and companies like BNFL and British Energy intend to build new NPP, based on Westinghouse or AECL-Canada advanced reactors. Switzerland and Spain are favorable to the future use of nuclear power. In the eastern part of Europe, almost all the countries intend to base their electricity production on coal, fission, hydro and gas, nuclear contribution being significant. The most impressive increases of nuclear power output are related to Asia; in China, from 2.2 Gwe in 1999, to 18.7 Gwe in 2020, reference case, or 10

Magnetic resonance imaging detects significant sex differences in human myocardial strain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reynolds Lina M

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The pathophysiology responsible for the significant outcome disparities between men and women with cardiac disease is largely unknown. Further investigation into basic cardiac physiological differences between the sexes is needed. This study utilized magnetic resonance imaging (MRI-based multiparametric strain analysis to search for sex-based differences in regional myocardial contractile function. Methods End-systolic strain (circumferential, longitudinal, and radial was interpolated from MRI-based radiofrequency tissue tagging grid point displacements in each of 60 normal adult volunteers (32 females. Results The average global left ventricular (LV strain among normal female volunteers (n = 32 was significantly larger in absolute value (functionally better than in normal male volunteers (n = 28 in both the circumferential direction (Male/Female = -0.19 ± 0.02 vs. -0.21 ± 0.02; p = 0.025 and longitudinal direction (Male/Female = -0.14 ± 0.03 vs. -0.16 ± 0.02; p = 0.007. Conclusions The finding of significantly larger circumferential and longitudinal LV strain among normal female volunteers suggests that baseline contractile differences between the sexes may contribute to the well-recognized divergence in cardiovascular disease outcomes. Further work is needed in order to determine the pathologic changes that occur in LV strain between women and men with the onset of cardiovascular disease.

Can personality predict individual differences in brook trout spatial learning ability?

Science.gov (United States)

White, S.L.; Wagner, Tyler; Gowan, C.; Braithwaite, V.A.

2017-01-01

While differences in individual personality are common in animal populations, understanding the ecological significance of variation has not yet been resolved. Evidence suggests that personality may influence learning and memory; a finding that could improve our understanding of the evolutionary processes that produce and maintain intraspecific behavioural heterogeneity. Here, we tested whether boldness, the most studied personality trait in fish, could predict learning ability in brook trout. After quantifying boldness, fish were trained to find a hidden food patch in a maze environment. Stable landmark cues were provided to indicate the location of food and, at the conclusion of training, cues were rearranged to test for learning. There was a negative relationship between boldness and learning as shy fish were increasingly more successful at navigating the maze and locating food during training trials compared to bold fish. In the altered testing environment, only shy fish continued using cues to search for food. Overall, the learning rate of bold fish was found to be lower than that of shy fish for several metrics suggesting that personality could have widespread effects on behaviour. Because learning can increase plasticity to environmental change, these results have significant implications for fish conservation.

Potential Causes of Significant Inventory Differences at Bulk Handling Facilities and the Importance of Inventory Difference Action Levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Homer, Alan; O’Hagan, Brendan

2015-01-01

Accountancy for nuclear material can be split into two categories. Firstly, where possible, accountancy should be in terms of items that can be transferred as discrete packages and their contents fixed at the time of their creation. All items must remain accounted for at all times, and a single missing item is considered significant. Secondly, where nuclear material is unconstrained, for example in a reprocessing plant where it can change form, there is an uncertainty that relates to the amount of material present in any location. Cumulatively, these uncertainties can be summed and provide a context for any estimate of material in a process. Any apparent loss or gain between what has been physically measured within a facility during its physical inventory take and what is reported within its nuclear material accounts is known as an inventory difference. The cumulative measurement uncertainties can be used to set an action level for the inventory difference so that if an inventory difference is observed outside of such action levels, the difference is classified as significant and an investigation to find the root cause(s) is required. The purpose of this paper is to explore the potential causes of significant inventory differences and to provide a framework within which an inventory difference investigation can be carried out.

Homage to Bateman: sex roles predict sex differences in sexual selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Fritzsche, Karoline; Arnqvis, Göran

2013-07-01

Classic sex role theory predicts that sexual selection should be stronger in males in taxa showing conventional sex roles and stronger in females in role reversed mating systems. To test this very central prediction and to assess the utility of different measures of sexual selection, we estimated sexual selection in both sexes in four seed beetle species with divergent sex roles using a novel experimental design. We found that sexual selection was sizeable in females and the strength of sexual selection was similar in females and males in role-reversed species. Sexual selection was overall significantly stronger in males than in females and residual selection formed a substantial component of net selection in both sexes. Furthermore, sexual selection in females was stronger in role-reversed species compared to species with conventional sex roles. Variance-based measures of sexual selection (the Bateman gradient and selection opportunities) were better predictors of sexual dimorphism in reproductive behavior and morphology across species compared to trait-based measures (selection differentials). Our results highlight the importance of using assays that incorporate components of fitness manifested after mating. We suggest that the Bateman gradient is generally the most informative measure of the strength of sexual selection in comparisons across sexes and/or species. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Significant factors for work attractiveness and how these differ from the current work situation among operating department nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Björn, Catrine; Lindberg, Magnus; Rissén, Dag

2016-01-01

The aim was to examine significant factors for work attractiveness and how these differ from the current work situation among operating department nurses. A second objective was to examine the associations between age, gender, length of employment, work engagement, work ability, self-rated health indicators and attractiveness of the current work situation. The attractiveness of work is rarely taken into account in research on nurse retention. To expand this knowledge, it is relevant to examine factors that make work attractive and their associations with related concepts. Correlational, cross-sectional survey using a convenience sample. Questionnaires were answered by 147 nurses in four operating departments in Sweden. Correlation and regression analyses were conducted. The nurses rated the significance of all factors of work attractiveness higher than they rated those factors in their current work situation; salary, organisation and physical work environment had the largest differences. The most significant attractive factors were relationships, leadership and status. A statistically significant positive correlation between work engagement and attractive work was found. In the multiple regression model, the independent variables work engagement and older age significantly predicted work attractiveness. Several factors should be considered in the effort to increase work attractiveness in operating departments and thereby to encourage nurse retention. Positive aspects of work seem to unite work engagement and attractive work, while work ability and self-rated health indicators are other important dimensions in nurse retention. The great discrepancies between the significance of attractive factors and the current work situation in salary, organisation and physical work environment suggest ways in which work attractiveness may be increased. To discover exactly what needs to be improved may require a deeper look into the construct of the examined factors. © 2015 John

Individual differences in impulsivity predict anticipatory eye movements.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laetitia Cirilli

Full Text Available Impulsivity is the tendency to act without forethought. It is a personality trait commonly used in the diagnosis of many psychiatric diseases. In clinical practice, impulsivity is estimated using written questionnaires. However, answers to questions might be subject to personal biases and misinterpretations. In order to alleviate this problem, eye movements could be used to study differences in decision processes related to impulsivity. Therefore, we investigated correlations between impulsivity scores obtained with a questionnaire in healthy subjects and characteristics of their anticipatory eye movements in a simple smooth pursuit task. Healthy subjects were asked to answer the UPPS questionnaire (Urgency Premeditation Perseverance and Sensation seeking Impulsive Behavior scale, which distinguishes four independent dimensions of impulsivity: Urgency, lack of Premeditation, lack of Perseverance, and Sensation seeking. The same subjects took part in an oculomotor task that consisted of pursuing a target that moved in a predictable direction. This task reliably evoked anticipatory saccades and smooth eye movements. We found that eye movement characteristics such as latency and velocity were significantly correlated with UPPS scores. The specific correlations between distinct UPPS factors and oculomotor anticipation parameters support the validity of the UPPS construct and corroborate neurobiological explanations for impulsivity. We suggest that the oculomotor approach of impulsivity put forth in the present study could help bridge the gap between psychiatry and physiology.

Parameter definition using vibration prediction software leads to significant drilling performance improvements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amorim, Dalmo; Hanley, Chris Hanley; Fonseca, Isaac; Santos, Juliana [National Oilwell Varco, Houston TX (United States); Leite, Daltro J.; Borella, Augusto; Gozzi, Danilo [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2012-07-01

field monitoring. Vibration prediction diminishes the importance of trial-and-error procedures such as drill-off tests, which are valid only for short sections. It also solves an existing lapse in Mechanical Specific Energy (MSE) real-time drilling control programs applying the theory of Teale, which states that a drilling system is perfectly efficient when it spends the exact energy to overcome the in situ rock strength. Using the proprietary software tool this paper will examine the resonant vibration modes that may be initiated while drilling with different BHA's and drill string designs, showing that the combination of a proper BHA design along with the correct selection of input parameters results in an overall improvement to drilling efficiency. Also, being the BHA predictively analyzed, it will be reduced the potential for vibration or stress fatigue in the drill string components, leading to a safer operation. In the recent years there has been an increased focus on vibration detection, analysis, and mitigation techniques, where new technologies, like the Drilling Dynamics Data Recorders (DDDR), may provide the capability to capture high frequency dynamics data at multiple points along the drilling system. These tools allow the achievement of drilling performance improvements not possible before, opening a whole new array of opportunities for optimization and for verification of predictions calculated by the drill string dynamics modeling software tool. The results of this study will identify how the dynamics from the drilling system, interacting with formation, directly relate to inefficiencies and to the possible solutions to mitigate drilling vibrations in order to improve drilling performance. Software vibration prediction and downhole measurements can be used for non-drilling operations like drilling out casing or reaming, where extremely high vibration levels - devastating to the cutting structure of the bit before it has even touched bottom - have

The predictive ability of different customer feedback metrics for retention

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Haan, Evert; Verhoef, Peter C.; Wiesel, Thorsten

This study systematically compares different customer feedback metrics (CFMs) - namely customer satisfaction, the Net Promoter Score, and the Customer Effort Score - to test their ability to predict retention across a wide range of industries. We classify the CFMs according to a time focus (past,

Predicting Intentions of a Familiar Significant Other Beyond the Mirror Neuron System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephanie Cacioppo

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Inferring intentions of others is one of the most intriguing issues in interpersonal interaction. Theories of embodied cognition and simulation suggest that this mechanism takes place through a direct and automatic matching process that occurs between an observed action and past actions. This process occurs via the reactivation of past self-related sensorimotor experiences within the inferior frontoparietal network (including the mirror neuron system, MNS. The working model is that the anticipatory representations of others' behaviors require internal predictive models of actions formed from pre-established, shared representations between the observer and the actor. This model suggests that observers should be better at predicting intentions performed by a familiar actor, rather than a stranger. However, little is known about the modulations of the intention brain network as a function of the familiarity between the observer and the actor. Here, we combined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI with a behavioral intention inference task, in which participants were asked to predict intentions from three types of actors: A familiar actor (their significant other, themselves (another familiar actor, and a non-familiar actor (a stranger. Our results showed that the participants were better at inferring intentions performed by familiar actors than non-familiar actors and that this better performance was associated with greater activation within and beyond the inferior frontoparietal network i.e., in brain areas related to familiarity (e.g., precuneus. In addition, and in line with Hebbian principles of neural modulations, the more the participants reported being cognitively close to their partner, the less the brain areas associated with action self-other comparison (e.g., inferior parietal lobule, attention (e.g., superior parietal lobule, recollection (hippocampus, and pair bond (ventral tegmental area, VTA were recruited, suggesting that the

Can personality predict individual differences in brook trout spatial learning ability?

Science.gov (United States)

White, S L; Wagner, T; Gowan, C; Braithwaite, V A

2017-08-01

While differences in individual personality are common in animal populations, understanding the ecological significance of variation has not yet been resolved. Evidence suggests that personality may influence learning and memory; a finding that could improve our understanding of the evolutionary processes that produce and maintain intraspecific behavioural heterogeneity. Here, we tested whether boldness, the most studied personality trait in fish, could predict learning ability in brook trout. After quantifying boldness, fish were trained to find a hidden food patch in a maze environment. Stable landmark cues were provided to indicate the location of food and, at the conclusion of training, cues were rearranged to test for learning. There was a negative relationship between boldness and learning as shy fish were increasingly more successful at navigating the maze and locating food during training trials compared to bold fish. In the altered testing environment, only shy fish continued using cues to search for food. Overall, the learning rate of bold fish was found to be lower than that of shy fish for several metrics suggesting that personality could have widespread effects on behaviour. Because learning can increase plasticity to environmental change, these results have significant implications for fish conservation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Basketball predictions in the NCAAB and NBA: Similarities and differences

OpenAIRE

Zimmermann , Albrecht

2016-01-01

International audience; Most work on predicting the outcome of basketball matches so far has focused on NCAAB games. Since NCAAB and professional (NBA) basketball have a number of differences, it is not clear to what degree these results can be transferred. We explore a number of different representations, training settings, and classifiers, and contrast their results on NCAAB and NBA data. We find that adjusted efficiencies work well for the NBA, that the NCAAB regular season is not ideal fo...

Prediction of reflood behavior for tests with differing axial power shapes using WCOBRA/TRAC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bajorek, S.M.; Hochreiter, L.E.

1991-01-01

The rector core power shape can vary over the fuel cycle due to load follow, control rod movement, burnup effects and Xenon transients. a best estimate thermal-hydraulic code must be able to accurately predict the reflooding behavior for different axial power shapes in order to find the power shapes effects on the loss-of-coolant peak cladding temperature. Several different reflood heat transfer experiments have been performed at the same or similar PWR reflood conditions with different axial power shapes. These experiments have different rod diameters, were full length, 3.65 m (12 feet) in height, and had simple egg crate grids. The WCOBRA/TRAC code has been used to model several different tests from these three experiments to examine the code's capability to predict the reflood transient for different power shapes, with a consistent model and noding scheme. This paper describes these different experiments, their power shapes, and the test conditions. The WCOBRA/TRAC code is described as well as the noding scheme, and the calculated results will be compared in detail with the test data rod temperatures. An overall assessment of the code's predictions of these experiments is presented

Link Prediction Methods and Their Accuracy for Different Social Networks and Network Metrics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Gao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Currently, we are experiencing a rapid growth of the number of social-based online systems. The availability of the vast amounts of data gathered in those systems brings new challenges that we face when trying to analyse it. One of the intensively researched topics is the prediction of social connections between users. Although a lot of effort has been made to develop new prediction approaches, the existing methods are not comprehensively analysed. In this paper we investigate the correlation between network metrics and accuracy of different prediction methods. We selected six time-stamped real-world social networks and ten most widely used link prediction methods. The results of the experiments show that the performance of some methods has a strong correlation with certain network metrics. We managed to distinguish “prediction friendly” networks, for which most of the prediction methods give good performance, as well as “prediction unfriendly” networks, for which most of the methods result in high prediction error. Correlation analysis between network metrics and prediction accuracy of prediction methods may form the basis of a metalearning system where based on network characteristics it will be able to recommend the right prediction method for a given network.

Indoor Radon Concentration Related to Different Radon Areas and Indoor Radon Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Juhásová Šenitková, Ingrid; Šál, Jiří

2017-12-01

Indoor radon has been observed in the buildings at areas with different radon risk potential. Preventive measures are based on control of main potential radon sources (soil gas, building material and supplied water) to avoid building of new houses above recommended indoor radon level 200 Bq/m3. Radon risk (index) estimation of individual building site bedrock in case of new house siting and building protection according technical building code are obligatory. Remedial actions in buildings built at high radon risk areas were carried out principally by unforced ventilation and anti-radon insulation. Significant differences were found in the level of radon concentration between rooms where radon reduction techniques were designed and those where it was not designed. The mathematical model based on radon exhalation from soil has been developed to describe the physical processes determining indoor radon concentration. The model is focused on combined radon diffusion through the slab and advection through the gap from sub-slab soil. In this model, radon emanated from building materials is considered not having a significant contribution to indoor radon concentration. Dimensional analysis and Gauss-Newton nonlinear least squares parametric regression were used to simplify the problem, identify essential input variables and find parameter values. The presented verification case study is introduced for real buildings with respect to various underground construction types. Presented paper gives picture of possible mathematical approach to indoor radon concentration prediction.

Comparison of Different Risk Perception Measures in Predicting Seasonal Influenza Vaccination among Healthy Chinese Adults in Hong Kong: A Prospective Longitudinal Study

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Qiuyan; Wong, Wing Sze; Fielding, Richard

2013-01-01

Background Risk perception is a reported predictor of vaccination uptake, but which measures of risk perception best predict influenza vaccination uptake remain unclear. Methodology During the main influenza seasons (between January and March) of 2009 (Wave 1) and 2010 (Wave 2),505 Chinese students and employees from a Hong Kong university completed an online survey. Multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to assess how well different risk perceptions measures in Wave 1 predicted vaccination uptake against seasonal influenza in Wave 2. Principal Findings The results of the multivariate logistic regression models showed that feeling at risk (β = 0.25, p = 0.021) was the better predictor compared with probability judgment while probability judgment (β = 0.25, p = 0.029 ) was better than beliefs about risk in predicting subsequent influenza vaccination uptake. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk seemed to predict the same aspect of subsequent vaccination uptake because their associations with vaccination uptake became insignificant when paired into the logistic regression model. Similarly, to compare the four scales for assessing probability judgment in predicting vaccination uptake, the 7-point verbal scale remained a significant and stronger predictor for vaccination uptake when paired with other three scales; the 6-point verbal scale was a significant and stronger predictor when paired with the percentage scale or the 2-point verbal scale; and the percentage scale was a significant and stronger predictor only when paired with the 2-point verbal scale. Conclusions/Significance Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk are not well differentiated by Hong Kong Chinese people. Feeling at risk, an affective-cognitive dimension of risk perception predicts subsequent vaccination uptake better than do probability judgments. Among the four scales for assessing risk probability judgment, the 7-point verbal scale offered the best predictive

Predictive and prognostic value of FDG-PET/CT imaging and different response evaluation criteria after primary systemic therapy of breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Tőkés, Tímea; Kajáry, Kornélia; Szentmártoni, Gyöngyvér; Lengyel, Zsolt; Györke, Tamás; Torgyík, László; Somlai, Krisztián; Tőkés, Anna-Mária; Kulka, Janina; Dank, Magdolna

2017-01-01

(1) To predict pathological complete remission (pCR) and survival after primary systemic therapy (PST) in patients diagnosed with breast cancer by using two different PET/CT based scores: a simplified PERCIST-based PET/CT score (Method 1) and a combined PET/CT score supplemented with the morphological results of the RECIST system (Method 2) and (2) to assess the effect of different breast carcinoma subtypes on tumor response and its evaluation. Eighty-eight patients were enrolled in the study who underwent PET/CT imaging before and after PST. PET/CTs were evaluated by changes in maximum Standardized Uptake Value (SUVmax) and tumor size. Method 1 and 2 were applied to predict pathological complete remission (pCR). Kaplan-Meier analyses for survival were performed. Classification into biological subtypes was performed based on the pre-therapeutic tumor characteristics. A total of 30/88 patients showed pCR (34.1 %). Comparing pCR/non-pCR patient groups, significant differences were detected by changes in SUVmax (p evaluation with Method 2 and not with Method 1. In our study, neither clinical nor pathological CR were predictors of longer progression-free survival. Our results suggest that combined PET/CT criteria are more predictive of pCR. The effect of biological subtypes is significant on pCR rate as well as on the changes in FDG-uptake and morphological tumor response. Response evaluation with combined criteria was also able to reflect the differences between the biological behavior of breast tumor subtypes.

Knowledge Prediction of Different Students’ Categories Trough an Intelligent Testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina Zheliazkova

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Student’s modelling, prediction, and grouping have remained open research issues in the multi-disciplinary area of educational data mining. The purpose of this study is to predict the correct knowledge of different categories of tested students: good, very good, and all. The experimental data set was gathered from an intelligent post-test performance containing student’s correct, missing, and wrong knowledge, time undertaken, and final mark. The proposed procedure applies consequently correlation analysis, simple and multiple liner regression using a power specialized tool for programming by the teacher. The finding is that the accuracy of the procedure is satisfactory for the three students’ categories. The experiment also confirms some findings of other researchers and previous authors’ team studies.

Individual differences in the rubber-hand illusion: predicting self-reports of people's personal experiences.

Science.gov (United States)

Haans, Antal; Kaiser, Florian G; Bouwhuis, Don G; Ijsselsteijn, Wijnand A

2012-10-01

Can we assess individual differences in the extent to which a person perceives the rubber-hand illusion on the basis of self-reported experiences? In this research, we develop such an instrument using Rasch-type models. In our conception, incorporating an object (e.g., a rubber hand) into one's body image requires various sensorimotor and cognitive processes. The extent to which people can meet these requirements thus determines how intensely people experience and, simultaneously, describe the illusion. As a consequence, individual differences in people's susceptibility to the rubber-hand illusion can be determined by inspecting reports of their personal experiences. The proposed model turned out to be functional in its capability to predict self-reports of people's experiences and to reliably assess individual differences in susceptibility to the illusion. Regarding validity, we found a small, but significant, correlation between individual susceptibility and proprioceptive drift. Additionally, we found that asynchrony, and tapping rather than stroking the fingers constrain the experience of the illusion. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accurate and dynamic predictive model for better prediction in medicine and healthcare.

Science.gov (United States)

Alanazi, H O; Abdullah, A H; Qureshi, K N; Ismail, A S

2018-05-01

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have changed the trend into new integrated operations and methods in all fields of life. The health sector has also adopted new technologies to improve the systems and provide better services to customers. Predictive models in health care are also influenced from new technologies to predict the different disease outcomes. However, still, existing predictive models have suffered from some limitations in terms of predictive outcomes performance. In order to improve predictive model performance, this paper proposed a predictive model by classifying the disease predictions into different categories. To achieve this model performance, this paper uses traumatic brain injury (TBI) datasets. TBI is one of the serious diseases worldwide and needs more attention due to its seriousness and serious impacts on human life. The proposed predictive model improves the predictive performance of TBI. The TBI data set is developed and approved by neurologists to set its features. The experiment results show that the proposed model has achieved significant results including accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

Discussion about different cut-off values of conventional hamstring-to-quadriceps ratio used in hamstring injury prediction among professional male football players.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monika Grygorowicz

Full Text Available To measure the sensitivity and specificity of differences cut-off values for isokinetic Hcon/Qcon ratio in order to improve the capacity to evaluate (retrospectively the injury of hamstring muscles in professional soccer screened with knee isokinetic tests.Retrospective study.Medical and biomechanical data of professional football players playing for the same team for at least one season between 2010 and 2016 were analysed. Hamstring strain injury cases and the reports generated via isokinetic testing were investigated. Isokinetic concentric(con hamstring(H and quadriceps(Q absolute strength in addition with Hcon/Qcon ratio were examined for the injured versus uninjured limbs among injured players, and for the injured and non-injured players. 2 x 2 contingency table was used for comparing variables: predicted injured or predicted uninjured with actual injured or actual uninjured. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratio were calculated for three different cut-off values (0.47 vs. 0.6 vs. 0.658 to compare the discriminative power of an isokinetic test, whilst examining the key value of Hcon/Qcon ratio which may indicate the highest level of ability to predispose a player to injury. McNemar's chi2 test with Yates's correction was used to determine agreement between the tests. PQStat software was used for all statistical analysis, and an alpha level of p <0.05 was used for all statistical comparisons.340 isokinetic test reports on both limbs of 66 professional soccer players were analysed. Eleven players suffered hamstring injuries during the analysed period. None of these players sustained recurrence of hamstring injury. One player sustained hamstring strain injury on both legs, thus the total number of injuries was 12. Application of different cut-off values for Hcon/Qcon significantly affected the sensitivity and specificity of isokinetic test used as a tool for

The problem with brain GUTs: conflation of different senses of "prediction" threatens metaphysical disaster.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Michael L; Chemero, Tony

2013-06-01

Clark appears to be moving toward epistemic internalism, which he once rightly rejected. This results from a double over-interpretation of predictive coding's significance. First, Clark argues that predictive coding offers a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of brain function. Second, he over-reads its epistemic import, perhaps even conflating causal and epistemic mediators. We argue instead for a plurality of neurofunctional principles.

Individual differences in episodic memory abilities predict successful prospective memory output monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter Ball, B; Pitães, Margarida; Brewer, Gene A

2018-02-07

Output monitoring refers to memory for one's previously completed actions. In the context of prospective memory (PM) (e.g., remembering to take medication), failures of output monitoring can result in repetitions and omissions of planned actions (e.g., over- or under-medication). To be successful in output monitoring paradigms, participants must flexibly control attention to detect PM cues as well as engage controlled retrieval of previous actions whenever a particular cue is encountered. The current study examined individual differences in output monitoring abilities in a group of younger adults differing in attention control (AC) and episodic memory (EM) abilities. The results showed that AC ability uniquely predicted successful cue detection on the first presentation, whereas EM ability uniquely predicted successful output monitoring on the second presentation. The current study highlights the importance of examining external correlates of PM abilities and contributes to the growing body of research on individual differences in PM.

Significant wave height retrieval from synthetic radar images

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wijaya, Andreas Parama; van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.

2014-01-01

In many offshore activities radar imagery is used to observe and predict ocean waves. An important issue in analyzing the radar images is to resolve the significant wave height. Different from 3DFFT methods that use an estimate related to the square root of the signal-to-noise ratio of radar images,

Mid-Treatment Sleep Duration Predicts Clinically Significant Knee Osteoarthritis Pain reduction at 6 months: Effects From a Behavioral Sleep Medicine Clinical Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Salwen, Jessica K; Smith, Michael T; Finan, Patrick H

2017-02-01

To determine the relative influence of sleep continuity (sleep efficiency, sleep onset latency, total sleep time [TST], and wake after sleep onset) on clinical pain outcomes within a trial of cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I) for patients with comorbid knee osteoarthritis and insomnia. Secondary analyses were performed on data from 74 patients with comorbid insomnia and knee osteoarthritis who completed a randomized clinical trial of 8-session multicomponent CBT-I versus an active behavioral desensitization control condition (BD), including a 6-month follow-up assessment. Data used herein include daily diaries of sleep parameters, actigraphy data, and self-report questionnaires administered at specific time points. Patients who reported at least 30% improvement in self-reported pain from baseline to 6-month follow-up were considered responders (N = 31). Pain responders and nonresponders did not differ significantly at baseline across any sleep continuity measures. At mid-treatment, only TST predicted pain response via t tests and logistic regression, whereas other measures of sleep continuity were nonsignificant. Recursive partitioning analyses identified a minimum cut-point of 382 min of TST achieved at mid-treatment in order to best predict pain improvements 6-month posttreatment. Actigraphy results followed the same pattern as daily diary-based results. Clinically significant pain reductions in response to both CBT-I and BD were optimally predicted by achieving approximately 6.5 hr sleep duration by mid-treatment. Thus, tailoring interventions to increase TST early in treatment may be an effective strategy to promote long-term pain reductions. More comprehensive research on components of behavioral sleep medicine treatments that contribute to pain response is warranted. © Sleep Research Society 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Individual differences in working memory capacity predict visual attention allocation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bleckley, M Kathryn; Durso, Francis T; Crutchfield, Jerry M; Engle, Randall W; Khanna, Maya M

2003-12-01

To the extent that individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) reflect differences in attention (Baddeley, 1993; Engle, Kane, & Tuholski, 1999), differences in WMC should predict performance on visual attention tasks. Individuals who scored in the upper and lower quartiles on the OSPAN working memory test performed a modification of Egly and Homa's (1984) selective attention task. In this task, the participants identified a central letter and localized a displaced letter flashed somewhere on one of three concentric rings. When the displaced letter occurred closer to fixation than the cue implied, high-WMC, but not low-WMC, individuals showed a cost in the letter localization task. This suggests that low-WMC participants allocated attention as a spotlight, whereas those with high WMC showed flexible allocation.

Predictive Maintenance (PdM) Centralization for Significant Energy Savings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Dale

2010-09-15

Cost effective predictive maintenance (PdM) technologies and basic energy calculations can mine energy savings form processes or maintenance activities. Centralizing and packaging this information correctly empowers facility maintenance and reliability professionals to build financial justification and support for strategies and personnel to weather global economic downturns and competition. Attendees will learn how to: Systematically build a 'pilot project' for applying PdM and tracking systems; Break down a typical electrical bill to calculate energy savings; Use return on investment (ROI) calculations to identify the best and highest value options, strategies and tips for substantiating your energy reduction maintenance strategies.

Predicting mass loading as a function of pressure difference across prefilter/HEPA filter systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novick, V.J.; Klassen, J.F.; Monson, P.R.

1992-01-01

The purpose of this work is to develop a methodology for predicting the mass loading and pressure drop effects on a prefilter/ HEPA filter system. The methodology relies on the use of empirical equations for the specific resistance of the aerosol loaded filter as a function of the particle diameter. These correlations relate the pressure difference across a filter to the mass loading on the filter and accounts for aerosol particle density effects. These predictions are necessary for the efficient design of new filtration systems and for risk assessment studies of existing filter systems. This work specifically addresses the prefilter/HEPA filter Airborne Activity Confinement Systems (AACS) at the Savannah River Plant. In order to determine the mass loading on the system, it is necessary to establish the efficiency characteristics for the prefilter, the mass loading characteristics of the prefilter measured as a function of pressure difference across the prefilter, and the mass loading characteristics of the HEPA filter as a function of pressure difference across the filter. Furthermore, the efficiency and mass loading characteristics need to be determined as a function of the aerosol particle diameter. A review of the literature revealed that no previous work had been performed to characterize the prefilter material of interest. In order to complete the foundation of information necessary to predict total mass loadings on prefilter/HEPA filter systems, it was necessary to determine the prefilter efficiency and mass loading characteristics. The measured prefilter characteristics combined with the previously determined HEPA filter characteristics allowed the resulting pressure difference across both filters to be predicted as a function of total particle mass for a given particle distribution. These predictions compare favorably to experimental measurements (±25%)

Prostate cancer volume adds significantly to prostate-specific antigen in the prediction of early biochemical failure after external beam radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Amico, Anthony V.; Propert, Kathleen J.

1996-01-01

Purpose: A new clinical pretreatment quantity that closely approximates the true prostate cancer volume is defined. Methods and Materials: The cancer-specific prostate-specific antigen (PSA), PSA density, prostate cancer volume (V Ca ), and the volume fraction of the gland involved with carcinoma (V Ca fx) were calculated for 227 prostate cancer patients managed definitively with external beam radiation therapy. 1. PSA density PSA/ultrasound prostate gland volume 2. Cancer-specific PSA = PSA - [PSA from benign epithelial tissue] 3. V Ca = Cancer-specific PSA/[PSA in serum per cm 3 of cancer] 4. V Ca fx = V Ca /ultrasound prostate gland volume A Cox multiple regression analysis was used to test whether any of these-clinical pretreatment parameters added significantly to PSA in predicting early postradiation PSA failure. Results: The prostate cancer volume (p = 0.039) and the volume fraction of the gland involved by carcinoma (p = 0.035) significantly added to the PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. Conversely, the PSA density and the cancer-specific PSA did not add significantly (p > 0.05) to PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. The 20-month actuarial PSA failure-free rates for patients with calculated tumor volumes of ≤0.5 cm 3 , 0.5-4.0 cm 3 , and >4.0 cm 3 were 92, 80, and 47%, respectively (p = 0.00004). Conclusion: The volume of prostate cancer (V Ca ) and the resulting volume fraction of cancer both added significantly to PSA in their ability to predict for early postradiation PSA failure. These new parameters may be used to select patients in prospective randomized trials that examine the efficacy of combining radiation and androgen ablative therapy in patients with clinically localized disease, who are at high risk for early postradiation PSA failure

Comparison of different risk perception measures in predicting seasonal influenza vaccination among healthy Chinese adults in Hong Kong: a prospective longitudinal study.

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Liao, Qiuyan; Wong, Wing Sze; Fielding, Richard

2013-01-01

Risk perception is a reported predictor of vaccination uptake, but which measures of risk perception best predict influenza vaccination uptake remain unclear. During the main influenza seasons (between January and March) of 2009 (Wave 1) and 2010 (Wave 2),505 Chinese students and employees from a Hong Kong university completed an online survey. Multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to assess how well different risk perceptions measures in Wave 1 predicted vaccination uptake against seasonal influenza in Wave 2. The results of the multivariate logistic regression models showed that feeling at risk (β = 0.25, p = 0.021) was the better predictor compared with probability judgment while probability judgment (β = 0.25, p = 0.029 ) was better than beliefs about risk in predicting subsequent influenza vaccination uptake. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk seemed to predict the same aspect of subsequent vaccination uptake because their associations with vaccination uptake became insignificant when paired into the logistic regression model. Similarly, to compare the four scales for assessing probability judgment in predicting vaccination uptake, the 7-point verbal scale remained a significant and stronger predictor for vaccination uptake when paired with other three scales; the 6-point verbal scale was a significant and stronger predictor when paired with the percentage scale or the 2-point verbal scale; and the percentage scale was a significant and stronger predictor only when paired with the 2-point verbal scale. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk are not well differentiated by Hong Kong Chinese people. Feeling at risk, an affective-cognitive dimension of risk perception predicts subsequent vaccination uptake better than do probability judgments. Among the four scales for assessing risk probability judgment, the 7-point verbal scale offered the best predictive power for subsequent vaccination uptake.

Predicting ambient aerosol thermal-optical reflectance (TOR) measurements from infrared spectra: extending the predictions to different years and different sites

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Reggente, Matteo; Dillner, Ann M.; Takahama, Satoshi

2016-02-01

Organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) are major components of atmospheric particulate matter (PM), which has been associated with increased morbidity and mortality, climate change, and reduced visibility. Typically OC and EC concentrations are measured using thermal-optical methods such as thermal-optical reflectance (TOR) from samples collected on quartz filters. In this work, we estimate TOR OC and EC using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) absorbance spectra from polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE Teflon) filters using partial least square regression (PLSR) calibrated to TOR OC and EC measurements for a wide range of samples. The proposed method can be integrated with analysis of routinely collected PTFE filter samples that, in addition to OC and EC concentrations, can concurrently provide information regarding the functional group composition of the organic aerosol. We have used the FT-IR absorbance spectra and TOR OC and EC concentrations collected in the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network (USA). We used 526 samples collected in 2011 at seven sites to calibrate the models, and more than 2000 samples collected in 2013 at 17 sites to test the models. Samples from six sites are present both in the calibration and test sets. The calibrations produce accurate predictions both for samples collected at the same six sites present in the calibration set (R2 = 0.97 and R2 = 0.95 for OC and EC respectively), and for samples from 9 of the 11 sites not included in the calibration set (R2 = 0.96 and R2 = 0.91 for OC and EC respectively). Samples collected at the other two sites require a different calibration model to achieve accurate predictions. We also propose a method to anticipate the prediction error; we calculate the squared Mahalanobis distance in the feature space (scores determined by PLSR) between new spectra and spectra in the calibration set. The squared Mahalanobis distance provides a crude method for assessing the

Different populations of subthalamic neurons encode cocaine vs. sucrose reward and predict future error.

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Lardeux, Sylvie; Paleressompoulle, Dany; Pernaud, Remy; Cador, Martine; Baunez, Christelle

2013-10-01

The search for treatment of cocaine addiction raises the challenge to find a way to diminish motivation for the drug without decreasing it for natural rewards. Subthalamic nucleus (STN) inactivation decreases motivation for cocaine while increasing motivation for food, suggesting that STN can dissociate different rewards. Here, we investigated how rat STN neurons respond to cues predicting cocaine or sucrose and to reward delivery while rats are performing a discriminative stimuli task. We show that different neuronal populations of STN neurons encode cocaine and sucrose. In addition, we show that STN activity at the cue onset predicts future error. When changing the reward predicted unexpectedly, STN neurons show capacities of adaptation, suggesting a role in reward-prediction error. Furthermore, some STN neurons show a response to executive error (i.e., "oops neurons") that is specific to the missed reward. These results position the STN as a nexus where natural rewards and drugs of abuse are coded differentially and can influence the performance. Therefore, STN can be viewed as a structure where action could be taken for the treatment of cocaine addiction.

Addendum to the article: Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: Would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

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Bundschuh, Mirco; Newman, Michael C; Zubrod, Jochen P; Seitz, Frank; Rosenfeldt, Ricki R; Schulz, Ralf

2015-03-01

We argued recently that the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) are valuable metrics to include during null hypothesis significance testing: They inform the researcher about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes actually being true. Although commonly misunderstood, a reported p value estimates only the probability of obtaining the results or more extreme results if the null hypothesis of no effect was true. Calculations of the more informative PPV and NPV require a priori estimate of the probability (R). The present document discusses challenges of estimating R.

A comparison of LOD and UT1-UTC forecasts by different combined prediction techniques

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Kosek, W.; Kalarus, M.; Johnson, T. J.; Wooden, W. H.; McCarthy, D. D.; Popiński, W.

Stochastic prediction techniques including autocovariance, autoregressive, autoregressive moving average, and neural networks were applied to the UT1-UTC and Length of Day (LOD) International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Servive (IERS) EOPC04 time series to evaluate the capabilities of each method. All known effects such as leap seconds and solid Earth zonal tides were first removed from the observed values of UT1-UTC and LOD. Two combination procedures were applied to predict the resulting LODR time series: 1) the combination of the least-squares (LS) extrapolation with a stochastic predition method, and 2) the combination of the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) filtering and a stochastic prediction method. The results of the combination of the LS extrapolation with different stochastic prediction techniques were compared with the results of the UT1-UTC prediction method currently used by the IERS Rapid Service/Prediction Centre (RS/PC). It was found that the prediction accuracy depends on the starting prediction epochs, and for the combined forecast methods, the mean prediction errors for 1 to about 70 days in the future are of the same order as those of the method used by the IERS RS/PC.

Assessing the Influence of Spatio-Temporal Context for Next Place Prediction using Different Machine Learning Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorim Urner

2018-04-01

Full Text Available For next place prediction, machine learning methods which incorporate contextual data are frequently used. However, previous studies often do not allow deriving generalizable methodological recommendations, since they use different datasets, methods for discretizing space, scales of prediction, prediction algorithms, and context data, and therefore lack comparability. Additionally, the cold start problem for new users is an issue. In this study, we predict next places based on one trajectory dataset but with systematically varying prediction algorithms, methods for space discretization, scales of prediction (based on a novel hierarchical approach, and incorporated context data. This allows to evaluate the relative influence of these factors on the overall prediction accuracy. Moreover, in order to tackle the cold start problem prevalent in recommender and prediction systems, we test the effect of training the predictor on all users instead of each individual one. We find that the prediction accuracy shows a varying dependency on the method of space discretization and the incorporated contextual factors at different spatial scales. Moreover, our user-independent approach reaches a prediction accuracy of around 75%, and is therefore an alternative to existing user-specific models. This research provides valuable insights into the individual and combinatory effects of model parameters and algorithms on the next place prediction accuracy. The results presented in this paper can be used to determine the influence of various contextual factors and to help researchers building more accurate prediction models. It is also a starting point for future work creating a comprehensive framework to guide the building of prediction models.

Predicting Community College Outcomes: Does High School CTE Participation Have a Significant Effect?

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Dietrich, Cecile; Lichtenberger, Eric; Kamalludeen, Rosemaliza

2016-01-01

This study explored the relative importance of participation in high school career and technical education (CTE) programs in predicting community college outcomes. A hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was used to predict community college outcome attainment among a random sample of direct community college entrants. Results show that…

Exploring the significance of human mobility patterns in social link prediction

KAUST Repository

Alharbi, Basma Mohammed; Zhang, Xiangliang

2014-01-01

Link prediction is a fundamental task in social networks. Recently, emphasis has been placed on forecasting new social ties using user mobility patterns, e.g., investigating physical and semantic co-locations for new proximity measure. This paper

Significance of SYT8 For the Detection, Prediction, and Treatment of Peritoneal Metastasis From Gastric Cancer.

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Kanda, Mitsuro; Shimizu, Dai; Tanaka, Haruyoshi; Tanaka, Chie; Kobayashi, Daisuke; Hayashi, Masamichi; Iwata, Naoki; Niwa, Yukiko; Yamada, Suguru; Fujii, Tsutomu; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Murotani, Kenta; Fujiwara, Michitaka; Kodera, Yasuhiro

2018-03-01

To develop novel diagnostic and therapeutic targets specific for peritoneal metastasis of gastric cancer (GC). Advanced GC frequently recurs because of undetected micrometastases even after curative resection. Peritoneal metastasis has been the most frequent recurrent pattern after gastrectomy and is incurable. We conducted a recurrence pattern-specific transcriptome analysis in an independent cohort of 16 patients with stage III GC who underwent curative gastrectomy and adjuvant S-1 for screening candidate molecules specific for peritoneal metastasis of GC. Next, another 340 patients were allocated to discovery and validation sets (1:2) to evaluate the diagnostic and predictive value of the candidate molecule. The results of quantitative reverse-transcription PCR and immunohistochemical analysis were correlated with clinical characteristics and survival. The effects of siRNA-mediated knockdown on phenotype and fluorouracil sensitivity of GC cells were evaluated in vitro, and the therapeutic effects of siRNAs were evaluated using a mouse xenograft model. Synaptotagmin VIII (SYT8) was identified as a candidate biomarker specific to peritoneal metastasis. In the discovery set, the optimal cut-off of SYT8 expression was established as 0.005. Expression levels of SYT8 mRNA in GC tissues were elevated in the validation set comprising patients with peritoneal recurrence or metastasis. SYT8 levels above the cut-off value were significantly and specifically associated with peritoneal metastasis, and served as an independent prognostic marker for peritoneal recurrence-free survival of patients with stage II/III GC. The survival difference between patients with SYT8 levels above and below the cut-off was associated with patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy. Inhibition of SYT8 expression by GC cells correlated with decreased invasion, migration, and fluorouracil resistance. Intraperitoneal administration of SYT8-siRNA inhibited the growth of peritoneal nodules and

Cognitive functioning differentially predicts different dimensions of older drivers' on-road safety.

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Aksan, Nazan; Anderson, Steve W; Dawson, Jeffrey; Uc, Ergun; Rizzo, Matthew

2015-02-01

The extent to which deficits in specific cognitive domains contribute to older drivers' safety risk in complex real-world driving tasks is not well understood. We selected 148 drivers older than 70 years of age both with and without neurodegenerative diseases (Alzheimer disease-AD and Parkinson disease-PD) from an existing driving database of older adults. Participant assessments included on-road driving safety and cognitive functioning in visuospatial construction, speed of processing, memory, and executive functioning. The standardized on-road drive test was designed to examine multiple facets of older driver safety including navigation performance (e.g., following a route, identifying landmarks), safety errors while concurrently performing secondary navigation tasks ("on-task" safety errors), and safety errors in the absence of any secondary navigation tasks ("baseline" safety errors). The inter-correlations of these outcome measures were fair to moderate supporting their distinctiveness. Participants with diseases performed worse than the healthy aging group on all driving measures and differences between those with AD and PD were minimal. In multivariate analyses, different domains of cognitive functioning predicted distinct facets of driver safety on road. Memory and set-shifting predicted performance in navigation-related secondary tasks, speed of processing predicted on-task safety errors, and visuospatial construction predicted baseline safety errors. These findings support broad assessments of cognitive functioning to inform decisions regarding older driver safety on the road and suggest navigation performance may be useful in evaluating older driver fitness and restrictions in licensing. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence, significance and predictive value of antiphospholipid antibodies in Crohn’s disease

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Sipeki, Nora; Davida, Laszlo; Palyu, Eszter; Altorjay, Istvan; Harsfalvi, Jolan; Antal Szalmas, Peter; Szabo, Zoltan; Veres, Gabor; Shums, Zakera; Norman, Gary L; Lakatos, Peter L; Papp, Maria

2015-01-01

AIM: To assess the prevalence and stability of different antiphospholipid antibodies (APLAs) and their association with disease phenotype and progression in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) patients. METHODS: About 458 consecutive patients [Crohn’s disease (CD): 271 and ulcerative colitis (UC): 187] were enrolled into a follow-up cohort study in a tertiary IBD referral center in Hungary. Detailed clinical phenotypes were determined at enrollment by reviewing the patients’ medical charts. Disease activity, medical treatment and data about evolvement of complications or surgical interventions were determined prospectively during the follow-up. Disease course (development f complicated disease phenotype and need for surgery), occurrence of thrombotic events, actual state of disease activity according to clinical, laboratory and endoscopic scores and accurate treatment regime were recorded during the follow-up, (median, 57.4 and 61.6 mo for CD and UC). Sera of IBD patients and 103 healthy controls (HC) were tested on individual anti-β2-Glycoprotein-I (anti-β2-GPI IgA/M/G), anti-cardiolipin (ACA IgA/M/G) and anti-phosphatidylserine/prothrombin (anti-PS/PT IgA/M/G) antibodies and also anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies (ASCA IgA/G) by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In a subgroup of CD (n = 198) and UC patients (n = 103), obtaining consecutive samples over various arbitrary time-points during the disease course, we evaluated the intraindividual stability of the APLA status. Additionally, we provide an overview of studies, performed so far, in which significance of APLAs in IBD were assessed. RESULTS: Patients with CD had significantly higher prevalence of both ACA (23.4%) and anti-PS/PT (20.4%) antibodies than UC (4.8%, P < 0.0001 and 10.2%, P = 0.004) and HC (2.9%, P < 0.0001 and 15.5%, P = NS). No difference was found for the prevalence of anti-β2-GPI between different groups (7.2%-9.7%). In CD, no association was found between APLA and ASCA

Comparison on batch anaerobic digestion of five different livestock manures and prediction of biochemical methane potential (BMP) using different statistical models.

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Kafle, Gopi Krishna; Chen, Lide

2016-02-01

There is a lack of literature reporting the methane potential of several livestock manures under the same anaerobic digestion conditions (same inoculum, temperature, time, and size of the digester). To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has reported biochemical methane potential (BMP) predicting models developed and evaluated by solely using at least five different livestock manure tests results. The goal of this study was to evaluate the BMP of five different livestock manures (dairy manure (DM), horse manure (HM), goat manure (GM), chicken manure (CM) and swine manure (SM)) and to predict the BMP using different statistical models. Nutrients of the digested different manures were also monitored. The BMP tests were conducted under mesophilic temperatures with a manure loading factor of 3.5g volatile solids (VS)/L and a feed to inoculum ratio (F/I) of 0.5. Single variable and multiple variable regression models were developed using manure total carbohydrate (TC), crude protein (CP), total fat (TF), lignin (LIG) and acid detergent fiber (ADF), and measured BMP data. Three different kinetic models (first order kinetic model, modified Gompertz model and Chen and Hashimoto model) were evaluated for BMP predictions. The BMPs of DM, HM, GM, CM and SM were measured to be 204, 155, 159, 259, and 323mL/g VS, respectively and the VS removals were calculated to be 58.6%, 52.9%, 46.4%, 81.4%, 81.4%, respectively. The technical digestion time (T80-90, time required to produce 80-90% of total biogas production) for DM, HM, GM, CM and SM was calculated to be in the ranges of 19-28, 27-37, 31-44, 13-18, 12-17days, respectively. The effluents from the HM showed the lowest nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium concentrations. The effluents from the CM digesters showed highest nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and digested SM showed highest potassium concentration. Based on the results of the regression analysis, the model using the variable of LIG showed the best (R(2

Predicting diet and consumption rate differences between and within species using gut ecomorphology.

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Griffen, Blaine D; Mosblack, Hallie

2011-07-01

1. Rapid environmental changes and pressing human needs to forecast the consequences of environmental change are increasingly driving ecology to become a predictive science. The need for effective prediction requires both the development of new tools and the refocusing of existing tools that may have previously been used primarily for purposes other than prediction. One such tool that historically has been more descriptive in nature is ecomorphology (the study of relationships between ecological roles and morphological adaptations of species and individuals). 2. Here, we examine relationships between diet and gut morphology for 15 species of brachyuran crabs, a group of pervasive and highly successful consumers for which trophic predictions would be highly valuable. 3. We show that patterns in crab stomach volume closely match some predictions of metabolic theory and demonstrate that individual diet differences and associated morphological variation reflect, at least in some instances, individual choice or diet specialization. 4. We then present examples of how stomach volume can be used to predict both the per cent herbivory of brachyuran crabs and the relative consumption rates of individual crabs. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Comparing Spatial Predictions

KAUST Repository

Hering, Amanda S.; Genton, Marc G.

2011-01-01

Under a general loss function, we develop a hypothesis test to determine whether a significant difference in the spatial predictions produced by two competing models exists on average across the entire spatial domain of interest. The null hypothesis

Number Line Estimation Predicts Mathematical Skills: Difference in Grades 2 and 4

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Meixia Zhu

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Studies have shown that number line estimation is important for learning. However, it is yet unclear if number line estimation predicts different mathematical skills in different grades after controlling for age, non-verbal cognitive ability, attention, and working memory. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of number line estimation on two mathematical skills (calculation fluency and math problem-solving in grade 2 and grade 4. One hundred and forty-eight children from Shanghai, China were assessed on measures of number line estimation, non-verbal cognitive ability (non-verbal matrices, working memory (N-back, attention (expressive attention, and mathematical skills (calculation fluency and math problem-solving. The results showed that in grade 2, number line estimation correlated significantly with calculation fluency (r = -0.27, p < 0.05 and math problem-solving (r = -0.52, p < 0.01. In grade 4, number line estimation correlated significantly with math problem-solving (r = -0.38, p < 0.01, but not with calculation fluency. Regression analyses indicated that in grade 2, number line estimation accounted for unique variance in math problem-solving (12.0% and calculation fluency (4.0% after controlling for the effects of age, non-verbal cognitive ability, attention, and working memory. In grade 4, number line estimation accounted for unique variance in math problem-solving (9.0% but not in calculation fluency. These findings suggested that number line estimation had an important role in math problem-solving for both grades 2 and 4 children and in calculation fluency for grade 2 children. We concluded that number line estimation could be a useful indicator for teachers to identify and improve children’s mathematical skills.

Diagnostic value of thallium-201 myocardial perfusion IQ-SPECT without and with computed tomography-based attenuation correction to predict clinically significant and insignificant fractional flow reserve

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Tanaka, Haruki; Takahashi, Teruyuki; Ohashi, Norihiko; Tanaka, Koichi; Okada, Takenori; Kihara, Yasuki

2017-01-01

Abstract The aim of this study was to clarify the predictive value of fractional flow reserve (FFR) determined by myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) using thallium (Tl)-201 IQ-SPECT without and with computed tomography-based attenuation correction (CT-AC) for patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). We assessed 212 angiographically identified diseased vessels using adenosine-stress Tl-201 MPI-IQ-SPECT/CT in 84 consecutive, prospectively identified patients with stable CAD. We compared the FFR in 136 of the 212 diseased vessels using visual semiquantitative interpretations of corresponding territories on MPI-IQ-SPECT images without and with CT-AC. FFR inversely correlated most accurately with regional summed difference scores (rSDS) in images without and with CT-AC (r = −0.584 and r = −0.568, respectively, both P system can predict FFR at an optimal cut-off of <0.80, and we propose a novel application of CT-AC to MPI-IQ-SPECT for predicting clinically significant and insignificant FFR even in nonobese patients. PMID:29390486

Young Mania Rating Scale: how to interpret the numbers? Determination of a severity threshold and of the minimal clinically significant difference in the EMBLEM cohort.

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Lukasiewicz, Michael; Gerard, Stephanie; Besnard, Adeline; Falissard, Bruno; Perrin, Elena; Sapin, Helene; Tohen, Mauricio; Reed, Catherine; Azorin, Jean-Michel

2013-03-01

The aim of this analysis was to identify Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS) meaningful benchmarks for clinicians (severity threshold, minimal clinically significant difference [MCSD]) using the Clinical Global Impressions Bipolar (CGI-BP) mania scale, to provide a clinical perspective to randomized clinical trials (RCTs) results. We used the cohort of patients with acute manic/mixed state of bipolar disorders (N = 3459) included in the European Mania in Bipolar Longitudinal Evaluation of Medication (EMBLEM) study. A receiver-operating characteristic analysis was performed on randomly selected patients to determine the YMRS optimal severity threshold with CGI-BP mania score ≥ "Markedly ill" defining severity. The MCSD (clinically meaningful change in score relative to one point difference in CGI-BP mania for outcome measures) of YMRS, was assessed with a linear regression on baseline data. At baseline, YMRS mean score was 26.4 (±9.9), CGI-BP mania mean score was 4.8 (±1.0) and 61.7% of patients had a score ≥ 5. The optimal YMRS severity threshold of 25 (positive predictive value [PPV] = 83.0%; negative predictive value [NPV] = 66.0%) was determined. In this cohort, a YMRS score of 20 (typical cutoff for RCTs inclusion criteria) corresponds to a PPV of 74.6% and to a NPV of 77.6%, meaning that the majority of patients included would be classified as severely ill. The YMRS minimal clinically significant difference was 6.6 points. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Discussion about different cut-off values of conventional hamstring-to-quadriceps ratio used in hamstring injury prediction among professional male football players.

Science.gov (United States)

Grygorowicz, Monika; Michałowska, Martyna; Walczak, Tomasz; Owen, Adam; Grabski, Jakub Krzysztof; Pyda, Andrzej; Piontek, Tomasz; Kotwicki, Tomasz

2017-01-01

To measure the sensitivity and specificity of differences cut-off values for isokinetic Hcon/Qcon ratio in order to improve the capacity to evaluate (retrospectively) the injury of hamstring muscles in professional soccer screened with knee isokinetic tests. Retrospective study. Medical and biomechanical data of professional football players playing for the same team for at least one season between 2010 and 2016 were analysed. Hamstring strain injury cases and the reports generated via isokinetic testing were investigated. Isokinetic concentric(con) hamstring(H) and quadriceps(Q) absolute strength in addition with Hcon/Qcon ratio were examined for the injured versus uninjured limbs among injured players, and for the injured and non-injured players. 2 x 2 contingency table was used for comparing variables: predicted injured or predicted uninjured with actual injured or actual uninjured. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratio were calculated for three different cut-off values (0.47 vs. 0.6 vs. 0.658) to compare the discriminative power of an isokinetic test, whilst examining the key value of Hcon/Qcon ratio which may indicate the highest level of ability to predispose a player to injury. McNemar's chi2 test with Yates's correction was used to determine agreement between the tests. PQStat software was used for all statistical analysis, and an alpha level of p hamstring injuries during the analysed period. None of these players sustained recurrence of hamstring injury. One player sustained hamstring strain injury on both legs, thus the total number of injuries was 12. Application of different cut-off values for Hcon/Qcon significantly affected the sensitivity and specificity of isokinetic test used as a tool for muscle injury detection. The use of 0.47 of Hcon/Qcon as a discriminate value resulted in significantly lower sensitivity when compared to 0.658 threshold (sensitivity of 16.7% vs

Sweat loss prediction using a multi-model approach.

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Xu, Xiaojiang; Santee, William R

2011-07-01

A new multi-model approach (MMA) for sweat loss prediction is proposed to improve prediction accuracy. MMA was computed as the average of sweat loss predicted by two existing thermoregulation models: i.e., the rational model SCENARIO and the empirical model Heat Strain Decision Aid (HSDA). Three independent physiological datasets, a total of 44 trials, were used to compare predictions by MMA, SCENARIO, and HSDA. The observed sweat losses were collected under different combinations of uniform ensembles, environmental conditions (15-40°C, RH 25-75%), and exercise intensities (250-600 W). Root mean square deviation (RMSD), residual plots, and paired t tests were used to compare predictions with observations. Overall, MMA reduced RMSD by 30-39% in comparison with either SCENARIO or HSDA, and increased the prediction accuracy to 66% from 34% or 55%. Of the MMA predictions, 70% fell within the range of mean observed value ± SD, while only 43% of SCENARIO and 50% of HSDA predictions fell within the same range. Paired t tests showed that differences between observations and MMA predictions were not significant, but differences between observations and SCENARIO or HSDA predictions were significantly different for two datasets. Thus, MMA predicted sweat loss more accurately than either of the two single models for the three datasets used. Future work will be to evaluate MMA using additional physiological data to expand the scope of populations and conditions.

Age-Related Differences in Goals: Testing Predictions from Selection, Optimization, and Compensation Theory and Socioemotional Selectivity Theory

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Penningroth, Suzanna L.; Scott, Walter D.

2012-01-01

Two prominent theories of lifespan development, socioemotional selectivity theory and selection, optimization, and compensation theory, make similar predictions for differences in the goal representations of younger and older adults. Our purpose was to test whether the goals of younger and older adults differed in ways predicted by these two…

The Ability of Different Imputation Methods to Preserve the Significant Genes and Pathways in Cancer

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Rosa Aghdam

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Deciphering important genes and pathways from incomplete gene expression data could facilitate a better understanding of cancer. Different imputation methods can be applied to estimate the missing values. In our study, we evaluated various imputation methods for their performance in preserving significant genes and pathways. In the first step, 5% genes are considered in random for two types of ignorable and non-ignorable missingness mechanisms with various missing rates. Next, 10 well-known imputation methods were applied to the complete datasets. The significance analysis of microarrays (SAM method was applied to detect the significant genes in rectal and lung cancers to showcase the utility of imputation approaches in preserving significant genes. To determine the impact of different imputation methods on the identification of important genes, the chi-squared test was used to compare the proportions of overlaps between significant genes detected from original data and those detected from the imputed datasets. Additionally, the significant genes are tested for their enrichment in important pathways, using the ConsensusPathDB. Our results showed that almost all the significant genes and pathways of the original dataset can be detected in all imputed datasets, indicating that there is no significant difference in the performance of various imputation methods tested. The source code and selected datasets are available on http://profiles.bs.ipm.ir/softwares/imputation_methods/.

Auditory working memory predicts individual differences in absolute pitch learning.

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Van Hedger, Stephen C; Heald, Shannon L M; Koch, Rachelle; Nusbaum, Howard C

2015-07-01

Absolute pitch (AP) is typically defined as the ability to label an isolated tone as a musical note in the absence of a reference tone. At first glance the acquisition of AP note categories seems like a perceptual learning task, since individuals must assign a category label to a stimulus based on a single perceptual dimension (pitch) while ignoring other perceptual dimensions (e.g., loudness, octave, instrument). AP, however, is rarely discussed in terms of domain-general perceptual learning mechanisms. This is because AP is typically assumed to depend on a critical period of development, in which early exposure to pitches and musical labels is thought to be necessary for the development of AP precluding the possibility of adult acquisition of AP. Despite this view of AP, several previous studies have found evidence that absolute pitch category learning is, to an extent, trainable in a post-critical period adult population, even if the performance typically achieved by this population is below the performance of a "true" AP possessor. The current studies attempt to understand the individual differences in learning to categorize notes using absolute pitch cues by testing a specific prediction regarding cognitive capacity related to categorization - to what extent does an individual's general auditory working memory capacity (WMC) predict the success of absolute pitch category acquisition. Since WMC has been shown to predict performance on a wide variety of other perceptual and category learning tasks, we predict that individuals with higher WMC should be better at learning absolute pitch note categories than individuals with lower WMC. Across two studies, we demonstrate that auditory WMC predicts the efficacy of learning absolute pitch note categories. These results suggest that a higher general auditory WMC might underlie the formation of absolute pitch categories for post-critical period adults. Implications for understanding the mechanisms that underlie the

Gambling score in earthquake prediction analysis

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Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

2011-03-01

The number of successes and the space-time alarm rate are commonly used to characterize the strength of an earthquake prediction method and the significance of prediction results. It has been recently suggested to use a new characteristic to evaluate the forecaster's skill, the gambling score (GS), which incorporates the difficulty of guessing each target event by using different weights for different alarms. We expand parametrization of the GS and use the M8 prediction algorithm to illustrate difficulties of the new approach in the analysis of the prediction significance. We show that the level of significance strongly depends (1) on the choice of alarm weights, (2) on the partitioning of the entire alarm volume into component parts and (3) on the accuracy of the spatial rate measure of target events. These tools are at the disposal of the researcher and can affect the significance estimate. Formally, all reasonable GSs discussed here corroborate that the M8 method is non-trivial in the prediction of 8.0 ≤M < 8.5 events because the point estimates of the significance are in the range 0.5-5 per cent. However, the conservative estimate 3.7 per cent based on the number of successes seems preferable owing to two circumstances: (1) it is based on relative values of the spatial rate and hence is more stable and (2) the statistic of successes enables us to construct analytically an upper estimate of the significance taking into account the uncertainty of the spatial rate measure.

Comparison of Different Approaches to Predict the Performance of Pumps As Turbines (PATs

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Mauro Venturini

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the comparison of different methods which can be used for the prediction of the performance curves of pumps as turbines (PATs. The considered approaches are four, i.e., one physics-based simulation model (“white box” model, two “gray box” models, which integrate theory on turbomachines with specific data correlations, and one “black box” model. More in detail, the modeling approaches are: (1 a physics-based simulation model developed by the same authors, which includes the equations for estimating head, power, and efficiency and uses loss coefficients and specific parameters; (2 a model developed by Derakhshan and Nourbakhsh, which first predicts the best efficiency point of a PAT and then reconstructs their complete characteristic curves by means of two ad hoc equations; (3 the prediction model developed by Singh and Nestmann, which predicts the complete turbine characteristics based on pump shape and size; (4 an Evolutionary Polynomial Regression model, which represents a data-driven hybrid scheme which can be used for identifying the explicit mathematical relationship between PAT and pump curves. All approaches are applied to literature data, relying on both pump and PAT performance curves of head, power, and efficiency over the entire range of operation. The experimental data were provided by Derakhshan and Nourbakhsh for four different turbomachines, working in both pump and PAT mode with specific speed values in the range 1.53–5.82. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the predictions made by means of the considered approaches and also analyzes consistency from a physical point of view. Advantages and drawbacks of each method are also analyzed and discussed.

The prediction of preschool children's weight from family environment factors: gender-linked differences.

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Tremblay, Line; Rinaldi, Christina M

2010-12-01

The main objective of this study was to test an explanatory model predicting preschool girls' and boys' body weight from certain child variables (food intake, sedentary behaviors, and eating habits), as well as family variables (interaction during mealtime and level of family financial resources allocated to meeting children's eating needs). A randomized stratified subsample of parents was selected from a larger study (Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development, QLSCD-1998-2002), with a breakdown of 581 girls and 611 boys of 4 years of age. Children's skin fold ratio, weight, height, and Body Mass Index (BMI) were recorded. Questionnaires were administered to parents (usually the mother). Using structural equation modeling (SEM) separately for girls and boys, the family environment model of healthy weight development was tested. Results yielded a good fit of the model for both genders. For boys, significant predictors of body weight in the model were family food insecurity and conflicts during mealtime. Healthy eating was predicted by food insecurity, mealtime conflicts, and sedentary behaviors. Mealtime conflicts predicted sedentary behaviors. For girls, none of the variables predicted body weight, however food insecurity predicted less healthy eating. These results outline the importance of prevention and intervention within families with young children. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of different scoring systems for outcome prediction in patients with Fournier's gangrene: experience with 50 patients.

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Tuncel, Altug; Keten, Tanju; Aslan, Yilmaz; Kayali, Mustafa; Erkan, Anil; Koseoglu, Ersin; Atan, Ali

2014-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate effective factors in the survival of patients with Fournier's gangrene (FG) and compare three different validated scoring systems for outcome prediction: Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index (FGSI), Uludag Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index (UFGSI) and age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI). Fifty men who underwent surgery for FG between July 2005 and August 2012 were included in the study. Data were collected on medical history, symptoms, physical examination findings, vital signs, admission and final laboratory tests, timing and extent of surgical debridement, and antibiotic treatment used. The FGSI, UFGSI and ACCI were evaluated stratified by survival. Admission and final parameters were measured using the Mann-Whitney test. The results were evaluated for two groups: survivors (n = 43) and non-survivors (n = 7). Survivors were younger than non-survivors (median age 58 vs 68.5 years, p = 0.017). The median extent of body surface area involved in the necrotizing process in patients who survived and did not survive was 2.3% and 4.8%, respectively (p = 0.04). No significant differences in laboratory parameters were found between survivors and non-survivors at the time of admission, except for haemoglobin, haematocrit, serum urea and albumin levels. Only UFGSI, but not FGSI or ACCI, had any meaning or predictive value in disease severity or patients' survival. Only the UFGSI score could predict the disease severity and the patients' survival. The findings did not support previous findings that an UFGSI threshold of 9 is a predictor of mortality during initial evaluation.

Predicting Smartphone Operating System from Personality and Individual Differences.

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Shaw, Heather; Ellis, David A; Kendrick, Libby-Rae; Ziegler, Fenja; Wiseman, Richard

2016-12-01

Android and iPhone devices account for over 90 percent of all smartphones sold worldwide. Despite being very similar in functionality, current discourse and marketing campaigns suggest that key individual differences exist between users of these two devices; however, this has never been investigated empirically. This is surprising, as smartphones continue to gain momentum across a variety of research disciplines. In this article, we consider if individual differences exist between these two distinct groups. In comparison to Android users, we found that iPhone owners are more likely to be female, younger, and increasingly concerned about their smartphone being viewed as a status object. Key differences in personality were also observed with iPhone users displaying lower levels of Honesty-Humility and higher levels of emotionality. Following this analysis, we were also able to build and test a model that predicted smartphone ownership at above chance level based on these individual differences. In line with extended self-theory, the type of smartphone owned provides some valuable information about its owner. These findings have implications for the increasing use of smartphones within research particularly for those working within Computational Social Science and PsychoInformatics, where data are typically collected from devices and applications running a single smartphone operating system.

The Ability of Different Imputation Methods to Preserve the Significant Genes and Pathways in Cancer.

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Aghdam, Rosa; Baghfalaki, Taban; Khosravi, Pegah; Saberi Ansari, Elnaz

2017-12-01

Deciphering important genes and pathways from incomplete gene expression data could facilitate a better understanding of cancer. Different imputation methods can be applied to estimate the missing values. In our study, we evaluated various imputation methods for their performance in preserving significant genes and pathways. In the first step, 5% genes are considered in random for two types of ignorable and non-ignorable missingness mechanisms with various missing rates. Next, 10 well-known imputation methods were applied to the complete datasets. The significance analysis of microarrays (SAM) method was applied to detect the significant genes in rectal and lung cancers to showcase the utility of imputation approaches in preserving significant genes. To determine the impact of different imputation methods on the identification of important genes, the chi-squared test was used to compare the proportions of overlaps between significant genes detected from original data and those detected from the imputed datasets. Additionally, the significant genes are tested for their enrichment in important pathways, using the ConsensusPathDB. Our results showed that almost all the significant genes and pathways of the original dataset can be detected in all imputed datasets, indicating that there is no significant difference in the performance of various imputation methods tested. The source code and selected datasets are available on http://profiles.bs.ipm.ir/softwares/imputation_methods/. Copyright © 2017. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.

Clinical significance of changes of serum osteocalcin (BGP) levels in subjects of different age-groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang Lihua; Zhang Jin; Han Cuihua; Ouyang Qiaohong

2006-01-01

Objective: To investigate the changes of serum BGP levels in different age-groups. Methods: Serum BGP levels were determined with RIA in 306 subjects of different age-groups. Results: The serum BGP levels were highest in subjects of the pre-adolescent group (age5-15, n=60, vs other groups, all P 50, n=80, P<0.001). Levels in the middle age group were the lowest and were significantly lower than those in the old age group (P<0.001). No sex related differences were observed in the pre-adolescent and middle age groups, but in the youth group, serum BGP levels were significantly higher in the males than those in the females (P<0.05). However, in the old age group, the reverse was true i.e. values being significantly higher in the females (vs males, P<0.01). Conclusion: Serum BGP levels varied greatly among the different age groups. (authors)

Differences in radiosensitivity among cells in culture and in experimental tumours: Significance for the effectiveness of human cancer therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barendsen, G.W.; Amsterdam Univ.

1987-01-01

Problems in the application of radiobiological data on various types of models, cell in vitro, experimental tumours, and clinical models, to the prediction of tumour radiocurability are discussed. On the basis of observations on cells in culture and experimental tumours it is suggested that heterogeneity in responsiveness of tumours in patients is caused in a large part by differences in intrinsic cellular radiosensitivity. Methods and developments are reviewed, which may yield better assays for the prediction of tumour responsiveness to treatments. (Auth.)

Early signs that predict later haemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus.

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Engür, Defne; Deveci, Murat; Türkmen, Münevver K

2016-03-01

Our aim was to determine the optimal cut-off values, sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic power of 12 echocardiographic parameters on the second day of life to predict subsequent ductal patency. We evaluated preterm infants, born at ⩽32 weeks of gestation, starting on their second day of life, and they were evaluated every other day until ductal closure or until there were clinical signs of re-opening. We measured transductal diameter; pulmonary arterial diastolic flow; retrograde aortic diastolic flow; pulsatility index of the left pulmonary artery and descending aorta; left atrium and ventricle/aortic root ratio; left ventricular output; left ventricular flow velocity time integral; mitral early/late diastolic flow; and superior caval vein diameter and flow as well as performed receiver operating curve analysis. Transductal diameter (>1.5 mm); pulmonary arterial diastolic flow (>25.6 cm/second); presence of retrograde aortic diastolic flow; ductal diameter by body weight (>1.07 mm/kg); left pulmonary arterial pulsatility index (⩽0.71); and left ventricle to aortic root ratio (>2.2) displayed high sensitivity and specificity (p0.9). Parameters with moderate sensitivity and specificity were as follows: left atrial to aortic root ratio; left ventricular output; left ventricular flow velocity time integral; and mitral early/late diastolic flow ratio (p0.05) had low diagnostic value. Left pulmonary arterial pulsatility index, left ventricle/aortic root ratio, and ductal diameter by body weight are useful adjuncts offering a broader outlook for predicting ductal patency.

The significance of collateral vessels, as seen on chest CT, in predicting SVC obstruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeouk, Young Soo; Kim, Sung Jin; Bae, Il Hun; Kim, Jae Youn; Hwang, Seung Min; Han, Gi Seok; Park, Kil Sun; Kim, Dae Young

1998-01-01

To evaluate the significance of collateral veins, as seen on chest CT, in the diagnosis of superior vena cava obstruction. We retrospectively the records of 81 patients in whom collateral veins were seen on chest CT. On spiral CT(n=49), contrast material was infused via power injector, and on conventional CT(n=32), 50 ml bolus infusion was followed by 50 ml drip infusion. Obstruction of the SVC was evaluated on chest CT; if, however, evaluation of the SVC of its major tributaries was difficult, as in five cases, the patient underwent SVC phlebography. Collateral vessels were assigned to one of ten categories. On conventional CT, the jugular venous arch in the only collateral vessel to predict SVC obstruction; on spiral CT, however, collateral vessels are not helpful in the diagnosis of SVC obstruction, but are a nonspecific finding. (author). 12 refs., 2 tab., 2 figs

Equations of prediction for abdominal fat in brown egg-laying hens fed different diets.

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Souza, C; Jaimes, J J B; Gewehr, C E

2017-06-01

The objective was to use noninvasive measurements to formulate equations for predicting the abdominal fat weight of laying hens in a noninvasive manner. Hens were fed with different diets; the external body measurements of birds were used as regressors. We used 288 Hy-Line Brown laying hens, distributed in a completely randomized design in a factorial arrangement, submitted for 16 wk to 2 metabolizable energy levels (2,550 and 2,800 kcal/kg) and 3 levels of crude protein in the diet (150, 160, and 170 g/kg), totaling 6 treatments, with 48 hens each. Sixteen hens per treatment of 92 wk age were utilized to evaluate body weight, bird length, tarsus and sternum, greater and lesser diameter of the tarsus, and abdominal fat weight, after slaughter. The equations were obtained by using measures evaluated with regressors through simple and multiple linear regression with the stepwise method of indirect elimination (backward), with P abdominal fat as predicted by the equations and observed values for each bird were subjected to Pearson's correlation analysis. The equations generated by energy levels showed coefficients of determination of 0.50 and 0.74 for 2,800 and 2,550 kcal/kg of metabolizable energy, respectively, with correlation coefficients of 0.71 and 0.84, with a highly significant correlation between the calculated and observed values of abdominal fat. For protein levels of 150, 160, and 170 g/kg in the diet, it was possible to obtain coefficients of determination of 0.75, 0.57, and 0.61, with correlation coefficients of 0.86, 0.75, and 0.78, respectively. Regarding the general equation for predicting abdominal fat weight, the coefficient of determination was 0.62; the correlation coefficient was 0.79. The equations for predicting abdominal fat weight in laying hens, based on external measurements of the birds, showed positive coefficients of determination and correlation coefficients, thus allowing researchers to determine abdominal fat weight in vivo. �

Profit through predictability: The MRF difference at optimax

Science.gov (United States)

Light, Brandon

2007-05-01

In the manufacturing business, there is one product that matters, money. Whether making shoelaces or aircraft carriers a business that doesn't also make a profit doesn't stay around long. Being able to predict operational expenses is critical to determining a product's sale price. Priced too high a product won't sell, too low profit goes away. In the business of precision optics manufacturing, predictability has been often impossible or had large error bars. Manufacturing unpredictability made setting price a challenge. What if predictability could improve by changing the polishing process? Would a predictable, deterministic process lead to profit? Optimax Systems has experienced exactly that. Incorporating Magnetorheological Finishing (MRF) into its finishing process, Optimax saw parts categorized financially as "high risk" become a routine product of higher quality, delivered on time and within budget. Using actual production figures, this presentation will show how much incorporating MRF reduced costs, improved output and increased quality all at the same time.

Prediction of Cyclists Movement in Different Terrain Conditions

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A/L V.Nagarrettinam Mahesh

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In Malaysia, most of the accidents involving a bicycle and another vehicle are due to either the driver or rider ‘failing to look properly’. This is more significant with the government initiatives to support the use of bicycle making the carbon-free environment, a vision of TN50. This research addresses the safety aspect of the cyclists in terms of the driver’s point of view which improves cyclist visibility during driving. The proposed helmet system implements a rule-based algorithm which predicts the turning and braking movement of the cyclists. With this system, additional illumination and signaling are provided for the cyclists. The major challenge faced is the implementation of an algorithm for various situations of cycling. To ensure the system could be used on the road, the accuracy and speed of the automatic signaling system need to adhere. Situations that affects the output of the indicators include bicycle speed, the angle of turning, body tilt, duration of turn and random body movements. This paper implements a 3-axis accelerometer and a microcontroller in a data logger to acquire the required data which are analyzed in MATLAB. Using filtering technique, the acquired data are then be cleaned to remove noise due to vibration during cycling. The characteristics of braking and turning are then analyzed in the time domain as well as frequency domain to ensure the optimum algorithm used for gesture recognition and movement prediction. The algorithm is based on sliding window, FFT and threshold-based rule algorithm. The output based on the rule-based algorithm then illuminate the corresponding signals which provide the safety feature of the system.

A comparison of different methods for predicting coal devolatilisation kinetics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arenillas, A.; Rubiera, F.; Pevida, C.; Pis, J.J. [Instituto Nacional del Carbon, CSIC, Apartado 73, 33080 Oviedo (Spain)

2001-04-01

Knowledge of the coal devolatilisation rate is of great importance because it exerts a marked effect on the overall combustion behaviour. Different approaches can be used to obtain the kinetics of the complex devolatilisation process. The simplest are empirical and employ global kinetics, where the Arrhenius expression is used to correlate rates of mass loss with temperature. In this study a high volatile bituminous coal was devolatilised at four different heating rates in a thermogravimetric analyser (TG) linked to a mass spectrometer (MS). As a first approach, the Arrhenius kinetic parameters (k and A) were calculated from the experimental results, assuming a single step process. Another approach is the distributed-activation energy model, which is more complex due to the assumption that devolatilisation occurs through several first-order reactions, which occur simultaneously. Recent advances in the understanding of coal structure have led to more fundamental approaches for modelling devolatilisation behaviour, such as network models. These are based on a physico-chemical description of coal structure. In the present study the FG-DVC (Functional Group-Depolymerisation, Vaporisation and Crosslinking) computer code was used as the network model and the FG-DVC predicted evolution of volatile compounds was compared with the experimental results. In addition, the predicted rate of mass loss from the FG-DVC model was used to obtain a third devolatilisation kinetic approach. The three methods were compared and discussed, with the experimental results as a reference.

How significant is the ‘significant other’? Associations between significant others’ health behaviors and attitudes and young adults’ health outcomes

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Berge Jerica M

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Having a significant other has been shown to be protective against physical and psychological health conditions for adults. Less is known about the period of emerging young adulthood and associations between significant others’ weight and weight-related health behaviors (e.g. healthy dietary intake, the frequency of physical activity, weight status. This study examined the association between significant others’ health attitudes and behaviors regarding eating and physical activity and young adults’ weight status, dietary intake, and physical activity. Methods This study uses data from Project EAT-III, a population-based cohort study with emerging young adults from diverse ethnic and socioeconomic backgrounds (n = 1212. Logistic regression models examining cross-sectional associations, adjusted for sociodemographics and health behaviors five years earlier, were used to estimate predicted probabilities and calculate prevalence differences. Results Young adult women whose significant others had health promoting attitudes/behaviors were significantly less likely to be overweight/obese and were more likely to eat ≥ 5 fruits/vegetables per day and engage in ≥ 3.5 hours/week of physical activity, compared to women whose significant others did not have health promoting behaviors/attitudes. Young adult men whose significant other had health promoting behaviors/attitudes were more likely to engage in ≥ 3.5 hours/week of physical activity compared to men whose significant others did not have health promoting behaviors/attitudes. Conclusions Findings suggest the protective nature of the significant other with regard to weight-related health behaviors of young adults, particularly for young adult women. Obesity prevention efforts should consider the importance of including the significant other in intervention efforts with young adult women and potentially men.

Toward Predicting Prosocial Behavior: Music Preference and Empathy Differences Between Adolescents and Adults

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Shannon Scott Clark

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Empathy plays a role in social competence and intelligence, and can serve as a buffer against antisocial tendencies. Numerous studies highlight the relationship between empathy, prosocial behaviors, and the predictive utility of music preferences. This study examined participant differences in music preferences and empathy as a function of age, and whether preferred music genre predicted empathy (as a correlate to prosocial behavior. A new measure was devised to assess music preferences more accurately (i.e. with better face/construct validity than existing measures. The Basic Empathy Scale measured empathy as a multidimensional construct. Younger participants exhibited greater empathy than older ones. Each music preference factor contributed uniquely to empathy variance in multiple regression models. Younger and older participants differed on music preferences (arguably associated with age-related sociocultural influences. Conclusions were drawn regarding the age differences in empathy and music preferences, the systematically greater influences of music preferences on cognitive compared to affective empathy, and the greater associations with empathy of specific music preferences. Limitations and implications for government policy and further research are considered.

Genomic predictions across Nordic Holstein and Nordic Red using the genomic best linear unbiased prediction model with different genomic relationship matrices.

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Zhou, L; Lund, M S; Wang, Y; Su, G

2014-08-01

This study investigated genomic predictions across Nordic Holstein and Nordic Red using various genomic relationship matrices. Different sources of information, such as consistencies of linkage disequilibrium (LD) phase and marker effects, were used to construct the genomic relationship matrices (G-matrices) across these two breeds. Single-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) model and two-trait GBLUP model were used for single-breed and two-breed genomic predictions. The data included 5215 Nordic Holstein bulls and 4361 Nordic Red bulls, which was composed of three populations: Danish Red, Swedish Red and Finnish Ayrshire. The bulls were genotyped with 50 000 SNP chip. Using the two-breed predictions with a joint Nordic Holstein and Nordic Red reference population, accuracies increased slightly for all traits in Nordic Red, but only for some traits in Nordic Holstein. Among the three subpopulations of Nordic Red, accuracies increased more for Danish Red than for Swedish Red and Finnish Ayrshire. This is because closer genetic relationships exist between Danish Red and Nordic Holstein. Among Danish Red, individuals with higher genomic relationship coefficients with Nordic Holstein showed more increased accuracies in the two-breed predictions. Weighting the two-breed G-matrices by LD phase consistencies, marker effects or both did not further improve accuracies of the two-breed predictions. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Disorder Prediction Methods, Their Applicability to Different Protein Targets and Their Usefulness for Guiding Experimental Studies

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Jennifer D. Atkins

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The role and function of a given protein is dependent on its structure. In recent years, however, numerous studies have highlighted the importance of unstructured, or disordered regions in governing a protein’s function. Disordered proteins have been found to play important roles in pivotal cellular functions, such as DNA binding and signalling cascades. Studying proteins with extended disordered regions is often problematic as they can be challenging to express, purify and crystallise. This means that interpretable experimental data on protein disorder is hard to generate. As a result, predictive computational tools have been developed with the aim of predicting the level and location of disorder within a protein. Currently, over 60 prediction servers exist, utilizing different methods for classifying disorder and different training sets. Here we review several good performing, publicly available prediction methods, comparing their application and discussing how disorder prediction servers can be used to aid the experimental solution of protein structure. The use of disorder prediction methods allows us to adopt a more targeted approach to experimental studies by accurately identifying the boundaries of ordered protein domains so that they may be investigated separately, thereby increasing the likelihood of their successful experimental solution.

Does Self-Determination Predict the School Engagement of Four Different Motivation Types in Adolescence?

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Raufelder, Diana; Regner, Nicola; Drury, Kate; Eid, Michael

2016-01-01

In order to enhance our understanding of inter-individual differences in scholastic motivation, this study examined if self-determination predicts the school engagement of four different motivation types (MT) in a large sample of adolescent students (N = 1088) from Brandenburg, Germany: (1) peer-dependent MT, (2) teacher-dependent MT, (3)…

Prediction of transpiration effects on heat and mass transfer by different turbulence models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bucci, M.; Sharabi, M.; Ambrosini, W.; Forgione, N.; Oriolo, F.; He, S.

2008-01-01

The paper reports the results of a study related to transpirating flows, stimulated by the interest that these phenomena, occurring in the presence of simultaneous heat and mass transfer, have for nuclear reactor applications. The work includes a summary and the follow-up of previous experimental and numerical investigations on filmwise condensation and falling film evaporation and of a recent review of different forms of the heat and mass transfer analogy. The particular objective here pursued is to compare transpiration effects as predicted by different turbulence models with classical suction and blowing multipliers based on stagnant layer theories, in the attempt to clarify their quantitative implications on the predicted mass transfer rates. A commercial and an in-house CFD code have been adopted for evaluating the heat and mass transfer rates occurring over a flat plate exposed to an air-vapour stream, with uniform bulk steam mass fraction and temperature boundary conditions at the wall. This simple configuration was purposely selected since it is a simplified representation of the test section of an experimental facility presently in operation at the University of Pisa. This allows a direct comparison between the heat and mass transfer coefficients predicted by CFD models and classical correlations for Nusselt and Sherwood numbers

Differences in axial segment reorientation during standing turns predict multiple falls in older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Rachel L; Peters, Derek M; Robinson, Paul D; Sitch, Alice J; Watt, Thomas N; Hollands, Mark A

2012-07-01

The assessment of standing turning performance is proposed to predict fall risk in older adults. This study investigated differences in segmental coordination during a 360° standing turn task between older community-dwelling fallers and non-fallers. Thirty-five older adults age mean (SD) of 71 (5.4) years performed 360° standing turns. Head, trunk and pelvis position relative to the laboratory and each other were recorded using a Vicon motion analysis system. Fall incidence was monitored by monthly questionnaire over the following 12 months and used to identify non-faller, single faller and multiple faller groups. Multiple fallers were found to have significantly different values, when compared to non-fallers, for pelvis onset (p=0.002); mean angular separation in the transverse plane between the head and trunk (p=0.018); peak angular separation in the transverse plane between the trunk and pelvis (p=0.013); and mean angular separation between the trunk and pelvis (pfalls show a simplified turning pattern to assist in balance control. This may be a predictor for those at increased risk of falling. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implicit learning of predictable sound sequences modulates human brain responses at different levels of the auditory hierarchy

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Françoise eLecaignard

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Deviant stimuli, violating regularities in a sensory environment, elicit the Mismatch Negativity (MMN, largely described in the Event-Related Potential literature. While it is widely accepted that the MMN reflects more than basic change detection, a comprehensive description of mental processes modulating this response is still lacking. Within the framework of predictive coding, deviance processing is part of an inference process where prediction errors (the mismatch between incoming sensations and predictions established through experience are minimized. In this view, the MMN is a measure of prediction error, which yields specific expectations regarding its modulations by various experimental factors. In particular, it predicts that the MMN should decrease as the occurrence of a deviance becomes more predictable. We conducted a passive oddball EEG study and manipulated the predictability of sound sequences by means of different temporal structures. Importantly, our design allows comparing mismatch responses elicited by predictable and unpredictable violations of a simple repetition rule and therefore departs from previous studies that investigate violations of different time-scale regularities. We observed a decrease of the MMN with predictability and interestingly, a similar effect at earlier latencies, within 70 ms after deviance onset. Following these pre-attentive responses, a reduced P3a was measured in the case of predictable deviants. We conclude that early and late deviance responses reflect prediction errors, triggering belief updating within the auditory hierarchy. Beside, in this passive study, such perceptual inference appears to be modulated by higher-level implicit learning of sequence statistical structures. Our findings argue for a hierarchical model of auditory processing where predictive coding enables implicit extraction of environmental regularities.

Factors correlating with significant differences between X-ray structures of myoglobin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rashin, Alexander A.; Domagalski, Marcin J.; Zimmermann, Michael T.; Minor, Wladek; Chruszcz, Maksymilian; Jernigan, Robert L.

2014-01-01

Conformational differences between myoglobin structures are studied. Most structural differences in whale myoglobin beyond the uncertainty threshold can be correlated with a few specific structural factors. There are always exceptions and a search for additional factors is needed. The results might have serious implications for biological insights from conformational differences. Validation of general ideas about the origins of conformational differences in proteins is critical in order to arrive at meaningful functional insights. Here, principal component analysis (PCA) and distance difference matrices are used to validate some such ideas about the conformational differences between 291 myoglobin structures from sperm whale, horse and pig. Almost all of the horse and pig structures form compact PCA clusters with only minor coordinate differences and outliers that are easily explained. The 222 whale structures form a few dense clusters with multiple outliers. A few whale outliers with a prominent distortion of the GH loop are very similar to the cluster of horse structures, which all have a similar GH-loop distortion apparently owing to intermolecular crystal lattice hydrogen bonds to the GH loop from residues near the distal histidine His64. The variations of the GH-loop coordinates in the whale structures are likely to be owing to the observed alternative intermolecular crystal lattice bond, with the change to the GH loop distorting bonds correlated with the binding of specific ‘unusual’ ligands. Such an alternative intermolecular bond is not observed in horse myoglobins, obliterating any correlation with the ligands. Intermolecular bonds do not usually cause significant coordinate differences and cannot be validated as their universal cause. Most of the native-like whale myoglobin structure outliers can be correlated with a few specific factors. However, these factors do not always lead to coordinate differences beyond the previously determined uncertainty

Factors correlating with significant differences between X-ray structures of myoglobin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rashin, Alexander A., E-mail: alexander-rashin@hotmail.com [BioChemComp Inc., 543 Sagamore Avenue, Teaneck, NJ 07666 (United States); Iowa State University, 112 Office and Lab Bldg, Ames, IA 50011-3020 (United States); Domagalski, Marcin J. [University of Virginia, 1340 Jefferson Park Avenue, Jordan Hall, Room 4223, Charlottesville, VA 22908 (United States); Zimmermann, Michael T. [Iowa State University, 112 Office and Lab Bldg, Ames, IA 50011-3020 (United States); Minor, Wladek [University of Virginia, 1340 Jefferson Park Avenue, Jordan Hall, Room 4223, Charlottesville, VA 22908 (United States); Chruszcz, Maksymilian [University of Virginia, 1340 Jefferson Park Avenue, Jordan Hall, Room 4223, Charlottesville, VA 22908 (United States); University of South Carolina, 631 Sumter Street, Columbia, SC 29208 (United States); Jernigan, Robert L. [Iowa State University, 112 Office and Lab Bldg, Ames, IA 50011-3020 (United States); BioChemComp Inc., 543 Sagamore Avenue, Teaneck, NJ 07666 (United States)

2014-02-01

Conformational differences between myoglobin structures are studied. Most structural differences in whale myoglobin beyond the uncertainty threshold can be correlated with a few specific structural factors. There are always exceptions and a search for additional factors is needed. The results might have serious implications for biological insights from conformational differences. Validation of general ideas about the origins of conformational differences in proteins is critical in order to arrive at meaningful functional insights. Here, principal component analysis (PCA) and distance difference matrices are used to validate some such ideas about the conformational differences between 291 myoglobin structures from sperm whale, horse and pig. Almost all of the horse and pig structures form compact PCA clusters with only minor coordinate differences and outliers that are easily explained. The 222 whale structures form a few dense clusters with multiple outliers. A few whale outliers with a prominent distortion of the GH loop are very similar to the cluster of horse structures, which all have a similar GH-loop distortion apparently owing to intermolecular crystal lattice hydrogen bonds to the GH loop from residues near the distal histidine His64. The variations of the GH-loop coordinates in the whale structures are likely to be owing to the observed alternative intermolecular crystal lattice bond, with the change to the GH loop distorting bonds correlated with the binding of specific ‘unusual’ ligands. Such an alternative intermolecular bond is not observed in horse myoglobins, obliterating any correlation with the ligands. Intermolecular bonds do not usually cause significant coordinate differences and cannot be validated as their universal cause. Most of the native-like whale myoglobin structure outliers can be correlated with a few specific factors. However, these factors do not always lead to coordinate differences beyond the previously determined uncertainty

Prediction of Depression in Cancer Patients With Different Classification Criteria, Linear Discriminant Analysis versus Logistic Regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Shayan, Zahra; Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Naser; Shayan, Leila; Naseri, Parisa

2015-11-03

Logistic regression (LR) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) are two popular statistical models for prediction of group membership. Although they are very similar, the LDA makes more assumptions about the data. When categorical and continuous variables used simultaneously, the optimal choice between the two models is questionable. In most studies, classification error (CE) is used to discriminate between subjects in several groups, but this index is not suitable to predict the accuracy of the outcome. The present study compared LR and LDA models using classification indices. This cross-sectional study selected 243 cancer patients. Sample sets of different sizes (n = 50, 100, 150, 200, 220) were randomly selected and the CE, B, and Q classification indices were calculated by the LR and LDA models. CE revealed the a lack of superiority for one model over the other, but the results showed that LR performed better than LDA for the B and Q indices in all situations. No significant effect for sample size on CE was noted for selection of an optimal model. Assessment of the accuracy of prediction of real data indicated that the B and Q indices are appropriate for selection of an optimal model. The results of this study showed that LR performs better in some cases and LDA in others when based on CE. The CE index is not appropriate for classification, although the B and Q indices performed better and offered more efficient criteria for comparison and discrimination between groups.

Intrapartum caesarean rates differ significantly between ethnic groups--relationship to induction.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Ismail, Khadijah I

2012-01-31

OBJECTIVE: Given international variation in obstetric practices and outcomes, comparison of labour outcomes in different ethnic groups could provide important information regarding the underlying reasons for rising caesarean delivery rates. Increasing numbers of women from Eastern European countries are now delivering in Irish maternity hospitals. We compared labour outcomes between Irish and Eastern European (EE) women in a large tertiary referral center. STUDY DESIGN: This was a prospective consecutive cohort study encompassing a single calendar year. The cohort comprised 5550 Irish and 867 EE women delivered in a single institution in 2009. Women who had multiple pregnancies, breech presentation, and elective or pre-labour caesarean sections (CS) were excluded. Data obtained from birth registers included maternal age, nationality, parity, gestation, onset of labour, mode of delivery and birth weight. RESULTS: The overall intrapartum CS rate was 11.4% and was significantly higher in Irish compared to EE women (11.8% vs. 8.8%; p=0.008). The proportion of primiparas was lower in Irish compared to EE women (44.8% vs. 63.6%; p<0.0001). The intrapartum CS rate was almost doubled in Irish compared to EE primiparas (20.7% vs. 11.0%; p<0.0001). Analysis of primiparas according to labour onset revealed a higher intrapartum CS rate in Irish primiparas in both spontaneous (13.5% vs. 7.2%; p<0.0001) and induced labour (29.5% vs. 19.3%; p=0.005). Irish women were older with 19.7% of primiparas aged more than 35, compared to 1.6% of EE women (p<0.0001). The primigravid CS rate in Irish women was significantly higher in women aged 35 years or older compared women aged less than 35 (30.6% vs. 18.3%; p<0.0001) consistent in both spontaneous and induced labour. The primiparous induction rate was 45.4% in Irish women compared to 32% in EE women, and more Irish women were induced before 41 weeks gestation. CONCLUSION: The results highlight that primigravid intrapartum CS rates were

Number Line Estimation Predicts Mathematical Skills: Difference in Grades 2 and 4.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Meixia; Cai, Dan; Leung, Ada W S

2017-01-01

Studies have shown that number line estimation is important for learning. However, it is yet unclear if number line estimation predicts different mathematical skills in different grades after controlling for age, non-verbal cognitive ability, attention, and working memory. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of number line estimation on two mathematical skills (calculation fluency and math problem-solving) in grade 2 and grade 4. One hundred and forty-eight children from Shanghai, China were assessed on measures of number line estimation, non-verbal cognitive ability (non-verbal matrices), working memory (N-back), attention (expressive attention), and mathematical skills (calculation fluency and math problem-solving). The results showed that in grade 2, number line estimation correlated significantly with calculation fluency ( r = -0.27, p problem-solving ( r = -0.52, p problem-solving ( r = -0.38, p problem-solving (12.0%) and calculation fluency (4.0%) after controlling for the effects of age, non-verbal cognitive ability, attention, and working memory. In grade 4, number line estimation accounted for unique variance in math problem-solving (9.0%) but not in calculation fluency. These findings suggested that number line estimation had an important role in math problem-solving for both grades 2 and 4 children and in calculation fluency for grade 2 children. We concluded that number line estimation could be a useful indicator for teachers to identify and improve children's mathematical skills.

Biographical Narratives of Encounter: The Significance of Mobility and Emplacement in Shaping Attitudes towards Difference

Science.gov (United States)

Sadgrove, Joanna

2014-01-01

This paper is located within work in urban studies about the significance of contact with difference as a means for reducing prejudice and achieving social change. Recent approaches, influenced by theories of affect, have emphasised non-conscious everyday negotiations of difference in the city. In this paper it is argued that such approaches lose sight of the significance of the subject: of the reflective judgements of ‘others’ made by individuals; of our ability to make decisions around the control of our feelings and identifications; and of the significance of personal pasts and collective histories in shaping the ways we perceive and react to encounters. Rather, this paper uses a biographical approach focusing on interviewees’ narratives of encounter. Through its attention to processes of mobility and emplacement, it contributes to debates about when contact with difference matters by highlighting the importance of everyday social normativities in the production of moral dispositions. PMID:26300566

Regional differences in brain volume predict the acquisition of skill in a complex real-time strategy videogame.

Science.gov (United States)

Basak, Chandramallika; Voss, Michelle W; Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Kramer, Arthur F

2011-08-01

Previous studies have found that differences in brain volume among older adults predict performance in laboratory tasks of executive control, memory, and motor learning. In the present study we asked whether regional differences in brain volume as assessed by the application of a voxel-based morphometry technique on high resolution MRI would also be useful in predicting the acquisition of skill in complex tasks, such as strategy-based video games. Twenty older adults were trained for over 20 h to play Rise of Nations, a complex real-time strategy game. These adults showed substantial improvements over the training period in game performance. MRI scans obtained prior to training revealed that the volume of a number of brain regions, which have been previously associated with subsets of the trained skills, predicted a substantial amount of variance in learning on the complex game. Thus, regional differences in brain volume can predict learning in complex tasks that entail the use of a variety of perceptual, cognitive and motor processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using individual differences to predict job performance: correcting for direct and indirect restriction of range.

Science.gov (United States)

Sjöberg, Sofia; Sjöberg, Anders; Näswall, Katharina; Sverke, Magnus

2012-08-01

The present study investigates the relationship between individual differences, indicated by personality (FFM) and general mental ability (GMA), and job performance applying two different methods of correction for range restriction. The results, derived by analyzing meta-analytic correlations, show that the more accurate method of correcting for indirect range restriction increased the operational validity of individual differences in predicting job performance and that this increase primarily was due to general mental ability being a stronger predictor than any of the personality traits. The estimates for single traits can be applied in practice to maximize prediction of job performance. Further, differences in the relative importance of general mental ability in relation to overall personality assessment methods was substantive and the estimates provided enables practitioners to perform a correct utility analysis of their overall selection procedure. © 2012 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2012 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

Finite Difference Formulation for Prediction of Water Pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Johari, Hanani; Rusli, Nursalasawati; Yahya, Zainab

2018-03-01

Water is an important component of the earth. Human being and living organisms are demand for the quality of water. Human activity is one of the causes of the water pollution. The pollution happened give bad effect to the physical and characteristic of water contents. It is not practical to monitor all aspects of water flow and transport distribution. So, in order to help people to access to the polluted area, a prediction of water pollution concentration must be modelled. This study proposed a one-dimensional advection diffusion equation for predicting the water pollution concentration transport. The numerical modelling will be produced in order to predict the transportation of water pollution concentration. In order to approximate the advection diffusion equation, the implicit Crank Nicolson is used. For the purpose of the simulation, the boundary condition and initial condition, the spatial steps and time steps as well as the approximations of the advection diffusion equation have been encoded. The results of one dimensional advection diffusion equation have successfully been used to predict the transportation of water pollution concentration by manipulating the velocity and diffusion parameters.

Intraindividual variability in executive functions but not speed of processing or conflict resolution predicts performance differences in gait speed in older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Holtzer, Roee; Mahoney, Jeannette; Verghese, Joe

2014-08-01

The relationship between executive functions (EF) and gait speed is well established. However, with the exception of dual tasking, the key components of EF that predict differences in gait performance have not been determined. Therefore, the current study was designed to determine whether processing speed, conflict resolution, and intraindividual variability in EF predicted variance in gait performance in single- and dual-task conditions. Participants were 234 nondemented older adults (mean age 76.48 years; 55% women) enrolled in a community-based cohort study. Gait speed was assessed using an instrumented walkway during single- and dual-task conditions. The flanker task was used to assess EF. Results from the linear mixed effects model showed that (a) dual-task interference caused a significant dual-task cost in gait speed (estimate = 35.99; 95% CI = 33.19-38.80) and (b) of the cognitive predictors, only intraindividual variability was associated with gait speed (estimate = -.606; 95% CI = -1.11 to -.10). In unadjusted analyses, the three EF measures were related to gait speed in single- and dual-task conditions. However, in fully adjusted linear regression analysis, only intraindividual variability predicted performance differences in gait speed during dual tasking (B = -.901; 95% CI = -1.557 to -.245). Among the three EF measures assessed, intraindividual variability but not speed of processing or conflict resolution predicted performance differences in gait speed. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Exploring the motivation jungle: Predicting performance on a novel task by investigating constructs from different motivation perspectives in tandem

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nuland, H.J.C. van; Dusseldorp, E.; Martens, R.L.; Boekaerts, M.

2010-01-01

Different theoretical viewpoints on motivation make it hard to decide which model has the best potential to provide valid predictions on classroom performance. This study was designed to explore motivation constructs derived from different motivation perspectives that predict performance on a novel

Comparative Analysis of Local Control Prediction Using Different Biophysical Models for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Undergoing Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bao-Tian Huang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The consistency for predicting local control (LC data using biophysical models for stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT treatment of lung cancer is unclear. This study aims to compare the results calculated from different models using the treatment planning data. Materials and Methods. Treatment plans were designed for 17 patients diagnosed with primary non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC using 5 different fraction schemes. The Martel model, Ohri model, and the Tai model were used to predict the 2-year LC value. The Gucken model, Santiago model, and the Tai model were employed to estimate the 3-year LC data. Results. We found that the employed models resulted in completely different LC prediction except for the Gucken and the Santiago models which exhibited quite similar 3-year LC data. The predicted 2-year and 3-year LC values in different models were not only associated with the dose normalization but also associated with the employed fraction schemes. The greatest difference predicted by different models was up to 15.0%. Conclusions. Our results show that different biophysical models influence the LC prediction and the difference is not only correlated to the dose normalization but also correlated to the employed fraction schemes.

The Comparison Study of Short-Term Prediction Methods to Enhance the Model Predictive Controller Applied to Microgrid Energy Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

César Hernández-Hernández

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Electricity load forecasting, optimal power system operation and energy management play key roles that can bring significant operational advantages to microgrids. This paper studies how methods based on time series and neural networks can be used to predict energy demand and production, allowing them to be combined with model predictive control. Comparisons of different prediction methods and different optimum energy distribution scenarios are provided, permitting us to determine when short-term energy prediction models should be used. The proposed prediction models in addition to the model predictive control strategy appear as a promising solution to energy management in microgrids. The controller has the task of performing the management of electricity purchase and sale to the power grid, maximizing the use of renewable energy sources and managing the use of the energy storage system. Simulations were performed with different weather conditions of solar irradiation. The obtained results are encouraging for future practical implementation.

Biofuel gasifier feedstock reactivity - explaining the differences and creating prediction models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Konttinen, J. (Jyvaeskylae Univ. (Finland)), Email: jukontti@jyu.fi; Moilanen, A. (VTT Processes, Espoo (Finland)); DeMartini, N.; Hupa, M. (AaboAkademi Univ., Turku (Finland))

2009-07-01

In this project in progress, the objective is to generate a method with reasonable cost and effort, to predict the gasification behavior of biomass fuels in a gasification reactor. The results of the project will help to understand the differences in the gasification behavior of biomass fuels. An essential hypothesis in the project is that the decrease of the catalysis properties of biomass ash will decrease biomass char gasification reactivity and thus the final carbon conversion. The project will involve TGA experiments to characterize char reactivity from 3 biomass fuels, ash characterization by fuel fractionation and SEM analysis; bench scale fluidized bed gasification for the 3 fuels; and kinetic modeling to include the change in the carbon conversion rate for different fuels as carbon gasification proceeds to completion. The constants and reactivity models will be used as part of a fluidized-bed gasification reactor model called. 'Carbon conversion predictor', in order to predict the effect of fuel ash composition on the gasification kinetics of biomass char. The University of Jyvaeskylae, Aabo Akademi University and VTT processes will work in cooperation with the private companies in Finland in the field of gasification. Also some cooperation in the USA will possibly be generated. The results of this project can be used in the design of commercial-scale biomass gasification reactors firing a variety of biomass fuels. (orig.)

Dynamical Predictability of Monthly Means.

Science.gov (United States)

Shukla, J.

1981-12-01

We have attempted to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed nonfluctuating external forcings. We have extended the concept of `classical' predictability, which primarily refers to the lack of predictability due mainly to the instabilities of synoptic-scale disturbances, to the predictability of time averages, which are determined by the predictability of low-frequency planetary waves. We have carded out 60-day integrations of a global general circulation model with nine different initial conditions but identical boundary conditions of sea surface temperature, snow, sea ice and soil moisture. Three of these initial conditions are the observed atmospheric conditions on 1 January of 1975, 1976 and 1977. The other six initial conditions are obtained by superimposing over the observed initial conditions a random perturbation comparable to the errors of observation. The root-mean-square (rms) error of random perturbations at all the grid points and all the model levels is 3 m s1 in u and v components of wind. The rms vector wind error between the observed initial conditions is >15 m s1.It is hypothesized that for a given averaging period, if the rms error among the time averages predicted from largely different initial conditions becomes comparable to the rms error among the time averages predicted from randomly perturbed initial conditions, the time averages are dynamically unpredictable. We have carried out the analysis of variance to compare the variability, among the three groups, due to largely different initial conditions, and within each group due to random perturbations.It is found that the variances among the first 30-day means, predicted from largely different initial conditions, are significantly different from the variances due to random perturbations in the initial conditions, whereas the variances among 30-day means for days 31-60 are not distinguishable from the variances due to random initial

When theory and biology differ: The relationship between reward prediction errors and expectancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Chad C; Hassall, Cameron D; Trska, Robert; Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olave E

2017-10-01

Comparisons between expectations and outcomes are critical for learning. Termed prediction errors, the violations of expectancy that occur when outcomes differ from expectations are used to modify value and shape behaviour. In the present study, we examined how a wide range of expectancy violations impacted neural signals associated with feedback processing. Participants performed a time estimation task in which they had to guess the duration of one second while their electroencephalogram was recorded. In a key manipulation, we varied task difficulty across the experiment to create a range of different feedback expectancies - reward feedback was either very expected, expected, 50/50, unexpected, or very unexpected. As predicted, the amplitude of the reward positivity, a component of the human event-related brain potential associated with feedback processing, scaled inversely with expectancy (e.g., unexpected feedback yielded a larger reward positivity than expected feedback). Interestingly, the scaling of the reward positivity to outcome expectancy was not linear as would be predicted by some theoretical models. Specifically, we found that the amplitude of the reward positivity was about equivalent for very expected and expected feedback, and for very unexpected and unexpected feedback. As such, our results demonstrate a sigmoidal relationship between reward expectancy and the amplitude of the reward positivity, with interesting implications for theories of reinforcement learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Taxi Time Prediction Performance Using Different Taxi Speed Decision Trees

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hanbong

2017-01-01

In the STBO modeler and tactical surface scheduler for ATD-2 project, taxi speed decision trees are used to calculate the unimpeded taxi times of flights taxiing on the airport surface. The initial taxi speed values in these decision trees did not show good prediction accuracy of taxi times. Using the more recent, reliable surveillance data, new taxi speed values in ramp area and movement area were computed. Before integrating these values into the STBO system, we performed test runs using live data from Charlotte airport, with different taxi speed settings: 1) initial taxi speed values and 2) new ones. Taxi time prediction performance was evaluated by comparing various metrics. The results show that the new taxi speed decision trees can calculate the unimpeded taxi-out times more accurately.

The clinical significance of axillary sentinel lymph node biopsy in different clinical stages breast cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Juan Xu; Xinhong Wu; Yaojun Feng; Feng Yuan; Wei Fan

2013-01-01

Objective:We aimed to study the success and false negative rate of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) in dif-ferent clinical stages breast cancer patients being carried out with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), and the clinical signifi-cance of SLNB, we conducting this trial. Methods:One hunderd and thirty-seven cases were enrol ed in this clinical research from March 2003 to March 2007. Al of the patients’ sentinel lymph nodes were detected with 99mTc-Dx and methylene blue. There were 61 patients with stage T1-2N0M0 carried SLNB without NAC (group A), 76 cases were carried out NAC 3-4 cycles before SLNB, including 39 T2-4N0-1M0 cases (group B) and 27 T2-4N2-3M0 cases (group C). The success and false negative rate of SLNB were analysed with chi-square test. Results:In group A, the successful and false negative rate of SLNB were 92.31%(36/39), 8.57%(3/35), and in group B and C were 92.31%(36/39), 8.57%(3/35) and 74.07%(20/27), 18.52%(5/27), respectively. The successful rate of group C decreased and false negative rate increased significantly compared with group A and B (P0.05). Conclusion:The SLNB can accurately predict lymph node status of axil ary lymph node in N0-1 stage patients with NAC, but in N2-3 stage patients the success rate decreased and false rate increased negative significantly.

Intercepting virtual balls approaching under different gravity conditions: evidence for spatial prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Russo, Marta; Cesqui, Benedetta; La Scaleia, Barbara; Ceccarelli, Francesca; Maselli, Antonella; Moscatelli, Alessandro; Zago, Myrka; Lacquaniti, Francesco; d'Avella, Andrea

2017-10-01

To accurately time motor responses when intercepting falling balls we rely on an internal model of gravity. However, whether and how such a model is also used to estimate the spatial location of interception is still an open question. Here we addressed this issue by asking 25 participants to intercept balls projected from a fixed location 6 m in front of them and approaching along trajectories with different arrival locations, flight durations, and gravity accelerations (0 g and 1 g ). The trajectories were displayed in an immersive virtual reality system with a wide field of view. Participants intercepted approaching balls with a racket, and they were free to choose the time and place of interception. We found that participants often achieved a better performance with 1 g than 0 g balls. Moreover, the interception points were distributed along the direction of a 1 g path for both 1 g and 0 g balls. In the latter case, interceptions tended to cluster on the upper half of the racket, indicating that participants aimed at a lower position than the actual 0 g path. These results suggest that an internal model of gravity was probably used in predicting the interception locations. However, we found that the difference in performance between 1 g and 0 g balls was modulated by flight duration, the difference being larger for faster balls. In addition, the number of peaks in the hand speed profiles increased with flight duration, suggesting that visual information was used to adjust the motor response, correcting the prediction to some extent. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Here we show that an internal model of gravity plays a key role in predicting where to intercept a fast-moving target. Participants also assumed an accelerated motion when intercepting balls approaching in a virtual environment at constant velocity. We also show that the role of visual information in guiding interceptive movement increases when more time is available. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological

The prognostic significance of UCA1 for predicting clinical outcome in patients with digestive system malignancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Fang-Teng; Dong, Qing; Gao, Hui; Zhu, Zheng-Ming

2017-06-20

Urothelial Carcinoma Associated 1 (UCA1) was an originally identified lncRNA in bladder cancer. Previous studies have reported that UCA1 played a significant role in various types of cancer. This study aimed to clarify the prognostic value of UCA1 in digestive system cancers. The meta-analysis of 15 studies were included, comprising 1441 patients with digestive system cancers. The pooled results of 14 studies indicated that high expression of UCA1 was significantly associated with poorer OS in patients with digestive system cancers (HR: 1.89, 95 % CI: 1.52-2.26). In addition, UCA1 could be as an independent prognostic factor for predicting OS of patients (HR: 1.85, 95 % CI: 1.45-2.25). The pooled results of 3 studies indicated a significant association between UCA1 and DFS in patients with digestive system cancers (HR = 2.50; 95 % CI = 1.30-3.69). Statistical significance was also observed in subgroup meta-analysis. Furthermore, the clinicopathological values of UCA1 were discussed in esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer. A comprehensive retrieval was performed to search studies evaluating the prognostic value of UCA1 in digestive system cancers. Many databases were involved, including PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang database. Quantitative meta-analysis was performed with standard statistical methods and the prognostic significance of UCA1 in digestive system cancers was qualified. Elevated level of UCA1 indicated the poor clinical outcome for patients with digestive system cancers. It may serve as a new biomarker related to prognosis in digestive system cancers.

Sex/gender and socioeconomic differences in the predictive ability of self-rated health for mortality.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akihiro Nishi

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies have reported that the predictive ability of self-rated health (SRH for mortality varies by sex/gender and socioeconomic group. The purpose of this study is to evaluate this relationship in Japan and explore the potential reasons for differences between the groups. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The analyses in the study were based on the Aichi Gerontological Evaluation Study's (AGES 2003 Cohort Study in Chita Peninsula, Japan, which followed the four-year survival status of 14,668 community-dwelling people who were at least 65 years old at the start of the study. We first examined sex/gender and education-level differences in association with fair/poor SRH. We then estimated the sex/gender- and education-specific hazard ratios (HRs of mortality associated with lower SRH using Cox models. Control variables, including health behaviors (smoking and drinking, symptoms of depression, and chronic co-morbid conditions, were added to sequential regression models. The results showed men and women reported a similar prevalence of lower SRH. However, lower SRH was a stronger predictor of mortality in men (HR = 2.44 [95% confidence interval (CI: 2.14-2.80] than in women (HR = 1.88 [95% CI: 1.44-2.47]; p for sex/gender interaction = 0.018. The sex/gender difference in the predictive ability of SRH was progressively attenuated with the additional introduction of other co-morbid conditions. The predictive ability among individuals with high school education (HR = 2.39 [95% CI: 1.74-3.30] was similar to that among individuals with less than a high school education (HR = 2.14 [95% CI: 1.83-2.50]; p for education interaction = 0.549. CONCLUSIONS: The sex/gender difference in the predictive ability of SRH for mortality among this elderly Japanese population may be explained by male/female differences in what goes into an individual's assessment of their SRH, with males apparently weighting depressive symptoms more than

Gender perceptions predict sex differences in growth patterns of indigenous Guatemalan infants and young children.

Science.gov (United States)

Tumilowicz, Alison; Habicht, Jean-Pierre; Pelto, Gretel; Pelletier, David L

2015-11-01

Nearly one-half of Guatemalan children experience growth faltering, more so in indigenous than in nonindigenous children. On the basis of ethnographic interviews in Totonicapán, Guatemala, which revealed differences in maternal perceptions about food needs in infant girls and boys, we predicted a cumulative sex difference in favor of girls that occurred at ∼6 mo of age and diminished markedly thereafter. We examined whether the predicted differences in age-sex patterns were observed in the village, replicated the examination nationally for indigenous children, and examined whether the pattern in nonindigenous children was different. Ethnographic interviews (n = 24) in an indigenous village were conducted. Anthropometric measurements of the village children aged 0-35 mo (n = 119) were obtained. National-level growth patterns were analyzed for indigenous (n = 969) and nonindigenous (n = 1374) children aged 0-35 mo with the use of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data. Mothers reported that, compared with female infants, male infants were hungrier, were not as satisfied with breastfeeding alone, and required earlier complementary feeding. An anthropometric analysis confirmed the prediction of healthier growth in indigenous girls than in indigenous boys throughout the first year of life, which resulted in a 2.98-cm height-for-age difference (HAD) between sexes in the village and a 1.61-cm HAD (P differences diminished in the second year of life (P differences in the HAD that first favor girls and then favor boys in the indigenous growth patterns are due to feeding patterns on the basis of gendered cultural perceptions. Circumstances that result in differential sex growth patterns need to be elucidated, in particular the favorable growth in girls in the first year of life. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO

Science.gov (United States)

Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different Approach for Ensemble Forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Jing-Jia; Masson, Sebastien; Behera, Swadhin; Shingu, Satoru; Yamagata, Toshio

2005-11-01

Predictabilities of tropical climate signals are investigated using a relatively high resolution Scale Interaction Experiment Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) coupled GCM (SINTEX-F). Five ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the model’s coupling physics, which accounts for the uncertainties of both initial conditions and model physics. Because of the model’s good performance in simulating the climatology and ENSO in the tropical Pacific, a simple coupled SST-nudging scheme generates realistic thermocline and surface wind variations in the equatorial Pacific. Several westerly and easterly wind bursts in the western Pacific are also captured.Hindcast results for the period 1982 2001 show a high predictability of ENSO. All past El Niño and La Niña events, including the strongest 1997/98 warm episode, are successfully predicted with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) skill scores above 0.7 at the 12-month lead time. The predicted signals of some particular events, however, become weak with a delay in the phase at mid and long lead times. This is found to be related to the intraseasonal wind bursts that are unpredicted beyond a few months of lead time. The model forecasts also show a “spring prediction barrier” similar to that in observations. Spatial SST anomalies, teleconnection, and global drought/flood during three different phases of ENSO are successfully predicted at 9 12-month lead times.In the tropical North Atlantic and southwestern Indian Ocean, where ENSO has predominant influences, the model shows skillful predictions at the 7 12-month lead times. The distinct signal of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event in 1994 is predicted at the 6-month lead time. SST anomalies near the western coast of Australia are also predicted beyond the 12-month lead time because of pronounced decadal signals there.

Explanation of significant differences for the TNX groundwater operable unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palmer, E.R.

1997-01-01

This Explanation of Significant Differences (ESD) is being issued by the Department of Energy (DOE), the lead agency for the Savannah River Site (SRS), with concurrence by the Environmental Protection Agency-Region IV (EPA) and South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC) to announce changes in the interim remediation strategy selected for the TNX Groundwater Operable Unit. The TNX Area is located adjacent to the Savannah River in the southwestern portion of SRS. The remedy selected in the Interim Record of Decision (IROD) to achieve the interim action goals was the Hybrid Groundwater Corrective Action (HGCA). The HGCA consisted of a recirculation well system and an air stripper with a series of groundwater extraction wells. The original remediation strategy needs to be modified because the recirculation well system was determined to be ineffective in this area due to geological factors and the nature of the contamination

Racial Discrimination during Adolescence Predicts Mental Health Deterioration in Adulthood: Gender Differences among Blacks

OpenAIRE

Assari, Shervin; Moazen-Zadeh, Ehsan; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard; Zimmerman, Marc A.

2017-01-01

Background Despite the existing knowledge regarding the negative mental health consequences of perceived racial discrimination, very few researchers have used a longitudinal design with long-term follow-up periods to explore gender differences in this association over time. Objective The current longitudinal study aimed to investigate gender differences in predictive role of an increase in perceived racial discrimination during adolescence for mental health deterioration a decade l...

Postnatal BMI changes in children with different birthweights: A trial study for detecting early predictive factors for pediatric obesity

Science.gov (United States)

Nakagawa, Yuichi; Nakanishi, Toshiki; Satake, Eiichiro; Matsushita, Rie; Saegusa, Hirokazu; Kubota, Akira; Natsume, Hiromune; Shibata, Yukinobu; Fujisawa, Yasuko

2018-01-01

Abstract. The purpose of this study was to clarify the degree of early postnatal growth by birthweight and detect early predictive factors for pediatric obesity. Body mass index (BMI) and degree of obesity were examined in children in the fourth year of elementary school and second year of junior high school. Their BMI at birth and three years of age were also examined. Based on birthweight, participants were divided into three groups: low ( 3500 g). Furthermore, according to the degree of obesity, they were divided into two groups: obese (20% ≤) and non-obese (20% >). The change of BMI from birth to three years of age (ΔBMI) showed a strong inverse relationship with birthweight and was significantly different among the three birthweight groups (low > middle > high). The ΔBMI and BMI at three years of age were higher in obese than in non-obese children and showed significant positive correlations with the degree of obesity. Early postnatal growth might be determined by birthweight and was higher in obese than in non-obese children. The ΔBMI from birth to three years of age and BMI at age of three years could be predictive factors for pediatric obesity. PMID:29403153

Personality Makes a Difference: Attachment Orientation Moderates Theory of Planned Behavior Prediction of Cardiac Medication Adherence.

Science.gov (United States)

Peleg, Shira; Vilchinsky, Noa; Fisher, William A; Khaskia, Abed; Mosseri, Morris

2017-12-01

To achieve a comprehensive understanding of patients' adherence to medication following acute coronary syndrome (ACS), we assessed the possible moderating role played by attachment orientation on the effects of attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control (PBC), as derived from the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB; Ajzen, 1991), on intention and reported adherence. A prospective longitudinal design was employed. During hospitalization, ACS male patients (N = 106) completed a set of self-report questionnaires including sociodemographic variables, attachment orientation, and measures of TPB constructs. Six months post-discharge, 90 participants completed a questionnaire measuring adherence to medication. Attachment orientations moderated some of the predictions of the TPB model. PBC predicted intention and reported adherence, but these associations were found to be significant only among individuals with lower, as opposed to higher, attachment anxiety. The association between attitudes and intention was stronger among individuals with higher, as opposed to lower, attachment anxiety. Only among individuals with higher attachment avoidance, subjective norms were negatively associated with intention to take medication. Cognitive variables appear to explain both adherence intention and behavior, but differently, depending on individuals' attachment orientations. Integrating personality and cognitive models may prove effective in understanding patients' health behaviors. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Validation of DAB2IP methylation and its relative significance in predicting outcome in renal cell carcinoma

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Liang-Yun; Kapur, Payal; Wu, Kai-Jie; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yan-Hong; Liao, Bing; He, Da-Lin; Chen, Wei; Margulis, Vitaly; Hsieh, Jer-Tsong; Luo, Jun-Hang

2016-01-01

We have recently reported tumor suppressive role of DAB2IP in RCC development. In this study, We identified one CpG methylation biomarker (DAB2IP CpG1) located UTSS of DAB2IP that was associated with poor overall survival in a cohort of 318 ccRCC patients from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We further validated the prognostic accuracy of DAB2IP CpG methylation by pyrosequencing quantitative methylation assay in 224 ccRCC patients from multiple Chinese centers (MCHC set), and 239 patients from University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas (UTSW set) by using FFPE samples. DAB2IP CpG1 can predict the overall survival of patients in TCGA, MCHC, and UTSW sets independent of patient age, Fuhrman grade and TNM stage (all p<0.05). DAB2IP CpG1 successfully categorized patients into high-risk and low-risk groups with significant differences of clinical outcome in respective clinical subsets, regardless of age, sex, grade, stage, or race (HR: 1.63-7.83; all p<0.05). The detection of DAB2IP CpG1 methylation was minimally affected by ITH in ccRCC. DAB2IP mRNA expression was regulated by DNA methylation in vitro. DAB2IP CpG1 methylation is a practical and repeatable biomarker for ccRCC, which can provide prognostic value that complements the current staging system. PMID:27129174

Prognostic factors for mortality due to pneumonia among adults from different age groups in Singapore and mortality predictions based on PSI and CURB-65.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zoe Xz; Yong, Yang; Tan, Wan C; Shen, Liang; Ng, Han Seong; Fong, Kok Yong

2017-08-14

Pneumonia is associated with considerable mortality. However, the information on age-specific prognostic factors for death from pneumonia is limited. Patients hospitalised with a diagnosis of pneumonia through the emergency department were stratified into three age groups: 18-64 years; 65-84 years; and ≥ 85 years. Multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to evaluate prognostic factors for mortality and the performance of pneumonia severity scoring tools for mortality prediction. There were 1,902 patients (18-64 years: 614 [32.3%]; 65-84 years: 944 [49.6%]; ≥ 85 years: 344 [18.1%]) enrolled. Mortality rates increased with age (18-64 years: 7.3%; 65-84 years: 16.1%; ≥ 85 years: 29.7%; p aged 18-64 years. Male gender, malignancy, congestive heart failure and eight other parameters reflecting acute disease severity were associated with mortality among patients aged 65-84 years. For patients aged ≥ 85 years, altered mental status, tachycardia, blood urea nitrogen, hypoxaemia, arterial pH and pleural effusion were significantly predictive of mortality. Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) was more sensitive than CURB-65 (Confusion, Uraemia, Respiratory rate ≥ 30 per minute, low Blood pressure, age 65 years or older) for mortality prediction across all age groups. The predictive effect of prognostic factors for mortality varied among patients with pneumonia from the different age groups. PSI performed significantly better than CURB-65 for mortality prediction, but its discriminative power decreased with advancing age.

Integrated genomic and immunophenotypic classification of pancreatic cancer reveals three distinct subtypes with prognostic/predictive significance.

Science.gov (United States)

Wartenberg, Martin; Cibin, Silvia; Zlobec, Inti; Vassella, Erik; Eppenberger-Castori, Serenella M M; Terracciano, Luigi; Eichmann, Micha; Worni, Mathias; Gloor, Beat; Perren, Aurel; Karamitopoulou, Eva

2018-04-16

Current clinical classification of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is unable to predict prognosis or response to chemo- or immunotherapy and does not take into account the host reaction to PDAC-cells. Our aim is to classify PDAC according to host- and tumor-related factors into clinically/biologically relevant subtypes by integrating molecular and microenvironmental findings. A well-characterized PDAC-cohort (n=110) underwent next-generation sequencing with a hotspot cancer panel, while Next-generation Tissue-Microarrays were immunostained for CD3, CD4, CD8, CD20, PD-L1, p63, hyaluronan-mediated motility receptor (RHAMM) and DNA mismatch-repair proteins. Previous data on FOXP3 were integrated. Immune-cell counts and protein expression were correlated with tumor-derived driver mutations, clinicopathologic features (TNM 8. 2017), survival and epithelial-mesenchymal-transition (EMT)-like tumor budding.  Results: Three PDAC-subtypes were identified: the "immune-escape" (54%), poor in T- and B-cells and enriched in FOXP3+Tregs, with high-grade budding, frequent CDKN2A- , SMAD4- and PIK3CA-mutations and poor outcome; the "immune-rich" (35%), rich in T- and B-cells and poorer in FOXP3+Tregs, with infrequent budding, lower CDKN2A- and PIK3CA-mutation rate and better outcome and a subpopulation with tertiary lymphoid tissue (TLT), mutations in DNA damage response genes (STK11, ATM) and the best outcome; and the "immune-exhausted" (11%) with immunogenic microenvironment and two subpopulations: one with PD-L1-expression and high PIK3CA-mutation rate and a microsatellite-unstable subpopulation with high prevalence of JAK3-mutations. The combination of low budding, low stromal FOXP3-counts, presence of TLTs and absence of CDKN2A-mutations confers significant survival advantage in PDAC-patients. Immune host responses correlate with tumor characteristics leading to morphologically recognizable PDAC-subtypes with prognostic/predictive significance. Copyright ©2018

Different Methods of Predicting Permeability in Shale

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mbia, Ernest Ncha; Fabricius, Ida Lykke; Krogsbøll, Anette

by two to five orders of magnitudes at lower vertical effective stress below 40 MPa as the content of clay minerals increases causing heterogeneity in shale material. Indirect permeability from consolidation can give maximum and minimum values of shale permeability needed in simulating fluid flow......Permeability is often very difficult to measure or predict in shale lithology. In this work we are determining shale permeability from consolidation tests data using Wissa et al., (1971) approach and comparing the results with predicted permeability from Kozeny’s model. Core and cuttings materials...... effective stress to 9 μD at high vertical effective stress of 100 MPa. The indirect permeability calculated from consolidation tests falls in the same magnitude at higher vertical effective stress, above 40 MPa, as that of the Kozeny model for shale samples with high non-clay content ≥ 70% but are higher...

Prognostic significance of between-arm blood pressure differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Agarwal, Rajiv; Bunaye, Zerihun; Bekele, Dagim M

2008-03-01

Blood pressure (BP) recordings often differ between arms, but the extent to which these differences are reproducible and whether the differences have prognostic importance is unknown. We enrolled 421 consecutive patients from a medicine and a renal clinic at a veterans' hospital. Three BP recordings were obtained in each arm using an oscillometric device in a sequential manner and repeated in 1 week. Patients were followed for all-cause mortality arm had 5.1-mm Hg higher systolic BP that attenuated by approximately 2.2 mm Hg a week later. Systolic BP dropped 6.9 mm Hg over 1 week and by an additional 5.3 mm Hg in patients with chronic kidney disease. Accounting for the visit and arm effect improved the reproducibility of the BP measurements. The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.74, which improved to 0.88 after accounting for visit and 0.93 after accounting for arm. The crude mortality rate was 6.33 per 100 patient-years. Every 10-mm Hg difference in systolic BP between the arms conferred a mortality hazard of 1.24 (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.52) after adjusting for average systolic BP and chronic kidney disease. BP differences between arms are reproducible and carry prognostic information. Patients should have evaluation of BP in both arms at the screening visit.

Individual differences in working memory capacity predict learned control over attentional capture.

Science.gov (United States)

Robison, Matthew K; Unsworth, Nash

2017-11-01

Although individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) typically predict susceptibility to attentional capture in various paradigms (e.g., Stroop, antisaccade, flankers), it sometimes fails to correlate with the magnitude of attentional capture effects in visual search (e.g., Stokes, 2016), which is 1 of the most frequently studied tasks to study capture (Theeuwes, 2010). But some studies have shown that search modes can mitigate the effects of attentional capture (Leber & Egeth, 2006). Therefore, the present study examined whether or not the relationship between WMC and attentional capture changes as a function of the search modes available. In Experiment 1, WMC was unrelated to attentional capture, but only 1 search mode (singleton-detection) could be employed. In Experiment 2, greater WMC predicted smaller attentional capture effects, but only when multiple search modes (feature-search and singleton-detection) could be employed. Importantly this relationship was entirely independent of variation in attention control, which suggests that this effect is driven by WMC-related long-term memory differences (Cosman & Vecera, 2013a, 2013b). The present set of findings help to further our understanding of the nuanced ways in which memory and attention interact. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis for Streamflow Prediction Using Different Objective Functions and Optimization Algorithms: San Joaquin California

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, M.; Negahban-Azar, M.

2017-12-01

The hydrologic models usually need to be calibrated against observed streamflow at the outlet of a particular drainage area through a careful model calibration. However, a large number of parameters are required to fit in the model due to their unavailability of the field measurement. Therefore, it is difficult to calibrate the model for a large number of potential uncertain model parameters. This even becomes more challenging if the model is for a large watershed with multiple land uses and various geophysical characteristics. Sensitivity analysis (SA) can be used as a tool to identify most sensitive model parameters which affect the calibrated model performance. There are many different calibration and uncertainty analysis algorithms which can be performed with different objective functions. By incorporating sensitive parameters in streamflow simulation, effects of the suitable algorithm in improving model performance can be demonstrated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling. In this study, the SWAT was applied in the San Joaquin Watershed in California covering 19704 km2 to calibrate the daily streamflow. Recently, sever water stress escalating due to intensified climate variability, prolonged drought and depleting groundwater for agricultural irrigation in this watershed. Therefore it is important to perform a proper uncertainty analysis given the uncertainties inherent in hydrologic modeling to predict the spatial and temporal variation of the hydrologic process to evaluate the impacts of different hydrologic variables. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity and uncertainty of the calibrated parameters for predicting streamflow. To evaluate the sensitivity of the calibrated parameters three different optimization algorithms (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting- SUFI-2, Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation- GLUE and Parameter Solution- ParaSol) were used with four different objective functions (coefficient of determination

Validation of an approach to predict total-tract fiber digestibility using a standardized in vitro technique for different diets fed to high-producing dairy cows.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, F; Ruh, K; Combs, D K

2015-04-01

The experimental objective was to validate an in vitro model to predict total-tract neutral detergent fiber (NDF) digestibility in dairy cattle. Twenty-one diets from 7 studies conducted at University of Wisconsin-Madison were analyzed for in vitro fiber digestibility. Forages varied among diets (corn, alfalfa, tall and meadow fescue, and wheat straw silages) and nutrient composition (ranges: NDF = 22.5 to 33.8%; crude protein = 15.8 to 18.9%; nonfiber carbohydrates = 38.0 to 51.0%). Total-tract NDF digestibility (TTNDFD) observed in in vivo trials was determined using different markers as described in the individual studies. The in vitro TTNDFD model predicted total-tract fiber digestibility from the proportion of total NDF potentially digestible (pdNDF), rate of pdNDF degradation, and rate of passage of pdNDF. The model predicted TTNDFD similar to in vivo measurements. The relationship between TTNDFD measured in vivo and TTNDFD predicted by the in vitro assay was significant (R(2) = 0.68). The relationship between in vitro 30-h NDF digestibility values and in vivo total-tract NDF digestibility values was not significant, whereas in vitro 48-h NDF digestibility values were correlated (R(2) = 0.30) with in vivo TTNDFD measurements. Indigestible NDF (iNDF) showed a negative relationship (R(2) = 0.40) with TTNDFD in vivo. Each 1-percentage-unit increase of iNDF resulted in a decrease of 0.96 percentage units of total-tract NDF digestibility; however, iNDF by itself was not a good predictor of TTNDFD because of the difference among the means. This study showed that an in vitro TTNDFD model that uses iNDF, pdNDF, and rates of pdNDF digestion and passage can predict (R(2) = 0.68) total-tract NDF digestibility. Most importantly, we demonstrated the ability to predict total-tract fiber digestibility from a model based on in vitro NDF degradation, which could improve our ability to optimize forage utilization and milk production. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science

Neuroanatomy of the vmPFC and dlPFC predicts individual differences in cognitive regulation during dietary self-control across regulation strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Liane; Tusche, Anita; Manoharan, Nicolas; Hutcherson, Cendri; Hare, Todd; Plassmann, Hilke

2018-06-04

Making healthy food choices is challenging for many people. Individuals differ greatly in their ability to follow health goals in the face of temptation, but it is unclear what underlies such differences. Using voxel-based morphometry (VBM), we investigated in healthy humans (i.e., men and women) links between structural variation in gray matter volume and individuals' level of success in shifting toward healthier food choices. We combined MRI and choice data into a joint dataset by pooling across three independent studies that employed a task prompting participants to explicitly focus on the healthiness of food items before making their food choices. Within this dataset, we found that individual differences in gray matter volume in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) predicted regulatory success. We extended and confirmed these initial findings by predicting regulatory success out of sample and across tasks in a second dataset requiring participants to apply a different regulation strategy that entailed distancing from cravings for unhealthy, appetitive foods. Our findings suggest that neuroanatomical markers in the vmPFC and dlPFC generalized to different forms of dietary regulation strategies across participant groups. They provide novel evidence that structural differences in neuroanatomy of two key regions for valuation and its control, the vmPFC and dlPFC, predict an individual's ability to exert control in dietary choices. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Dieting involves regulating food choices in order to eat healthier foods and fewer unhealthy foods. People differ dramatically in their ability to achieve or maintain this regulation, but it is unclear why. Here, we show that individuals with more gray matter volume in the dorsolateral and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are better at exercising dietary self-control. This relationship was observed across four different studies examining two different forms of dietary

Asymptotically Constant-Risk Predictive Densities When the Distributions of Data and Target Variables Are Different

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keisuke Yano

2014-05-01

Full Text Available We investigate the asymptotic construction of constant-risk Bayesian predictive densities under the Kullback–Leibler risk when the distributions of data and target variables are different and have a common unknown parameter. It is known that the Kullback–Leibler risk is asymptotically equal to a trace of the product of two matrices: the inverse of the Fisher information matrix for the data and the Fisher information matrix for the target variables. We assume that the trace has a unique maximum point with respect to the parameter. We construct asymptotically constant-risk Bayesian predictive densities using a prior depending on the sample size. Further, we apply the theory to the subminimax estimator problem and the prediction based on the binary regression model.

Annotation-Based Whole Genomic Prediction and Selection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kadarmideen, Haja; Do, Duy Ngoc; Janss, Luc

Genomic selection is widely used in both animal and plant species, however, it is performed with no input from known genomic or biological role of genetic variants and therefore is a black box approach in a genomic era. This study investigated the role of different genomic regions and detected QTLs...... in their contribution to estimated genomic variances and in prediction of genomic breeding values by applying SNP annotation approaches to feed efficiency. Ensembl Variant Predictor (EVP) and Pig QTL database were used as the source of genomic annotation for 60K chip. Genomic prediction was performed using the Bayes...... classes. Predictive accuracy was 0.531, 0.532, 0.302, and 0.344 for DFI, RFI, ADG and BF, respectively. The contribution per SNP to total genomic variance was similar among annotated classes across different traits. Predictive performance of SNP classes did not significantly differ from randomized SNP...

Body composition in elderly people: effect of criterion estimates on predictive equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baumgartner, R.N.; Heymsfield, S.B.; Lichtman, S.; Wang, J.; Pierson, R.N. Jr.

1991-01-01

The purposes of this study were to determine whether there are significant differences between two- and four-compartment model estimates of body composition, whether these differences are associated with aqueous and mineral fractions of the fat-free mass (FFM); and whether the differences are retained in equations for predicting body composition from anthropometry and bioelectric resistance. Body composition was estimated in 98 men and women aged 65-94 y by using a four-compartment model based on hydrodensitometry, 3 H 2 O dilution, and dual-photon absorptiometry. These estimates were significantly different from those obtained by using Siri's two-compartment model. The differences were associated significantly (P less than 0.0001) with variation in the aqueous fraction of FFM. Equations for predicting body composition from anthropometry and resistance, when calibrated against two-compartment model estimates, retained these systematic errors. Equations predicting body composition in elderly people should be calibrated against estimates from multicompartment models that consider variability in FFM composition

THE IMPORTANCE OF ‘SIGNIFICANT OTHERS’ IN BRIDGING THE GAPS BETWEEN DIFFERENT READING CONTEXTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna-Karin Svensson

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The current research is an in-depth study of four pre-service teachers’ own experience of reading in various contexts and for different reasons. The aim is to analyse what has been significant regarding reading in a life history perspective by the use of narratives. A socio-cultural perspective on reading is used as analysis tool. The over-arching result from analysing pre-service teachers’ narratives is that reading is a relational process regardless of the context reading takes place in. The emerging themes allow a deeper understanding on critical aspects for developing reading in various contexts and at different levels. Significant others seem important in every reading practice, from new readers in primary school to pre-service teachers’ reading at university level. The narratives reveal a need for bridging the gaps that arise between the reading practices in the various contexts that students meet in school and university.

Forex Market Prediction Using NARX Neural Network with Bagging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shahbazi Nima

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a new methodfor predicting movements in Forex market based on NARX neural network withtime shifting bagging techniqueand financial indicators, such as relative strength index and stochastic indicators. Neural networks have prominent learning ability but they often exhibit bad and unpredictable performance for noisy data. When compared with the static neural networks, our method significantly reducesthe error rate of the responseandimproves the performance of the prediction. We tested three different types ofarchitecture for predicting the response and determined the best network approach. We applied our method to prediction the hourly foreign exchange rates and found remarkable predictability in comprehensive experiments with 2 different foreign exchange rates (GBPUSD and EURUSD.

National differences in environmental concern and performance are predicted by country age.

Science.gov (United States)

Hershfield, Hal E; Bang, H Min; Weber, Elke U

2014-01-01

There are obvious economic predictors of ability and willingness to invest in environmental sustainability. Yet, given that environmental decisions represent trade-offs between present sacrifices and uncertain future benefits, psychological factors may also play a role in country-level environmental behavior. Gott's principle suggests that citizens may use perceptions of their country's age to predict its future continuation, with longer pasts predicting longer futures. Using country- and individual-level analyses, we examined whether longer perceived pasts result in longer perceived futures, which in turn motivate concern for continued environmental quality. Study 1 found that older countries scored higher on an environmental performance index, even when the analysis controlled for country-level differences in gross domestic product and governance. Study 2 showed that when the United States was framed as an old country (vs. a young one), participants were willing to donate more money to an environmental organization. The findings suggest that framing a country as a long-standing entity may effectively prompt proenvironmental behavior.

Predicting DUI decisions in different legal environments: investigating deterrence with a conjoint experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Jie; Johnson, Mark B; Beck, Kenneth H

2014-01-01

Driving under the influence (DUI) enforcement practices and sanctions contribute differentially to the certainty, swiftness, and severity of punishment, which are the key components of general deterrence theory. This study used a conjoint experiment to understand the decision-making process of potential DUI offenders and tested how variation in enforcement and legal punishment affects drinking and driving decisions. It sought to verify and quantify the unique deterrent effects of certainty, severity, and swiftness and to predict the rates of drinking and driving in different legal environments. One hundred twenty-one college seniors and graduate students at the University of Maryland participated in the Web-based conjoint experiment. They were randomly assigned to 4 blocks, each of which included 9 hypothetical scenarios composed of different levels of DUI enforcement and penalties. Respondents were asked to state their likelihood of drinking and driving under each scenario, as well as their estimated chance of being caught by the police for DUI. Intensified enforcement, harsh jail penalty, and immediate long license suspension were found to be the strongest deterrents to drinking and driving. Alternative ways to get home were also important in reducing people's willingness to drive. These factors accounted for most of the attribute effect on the DUI decision, whereas delayed punishment due to judicial processing, fine penalty, and legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit had negligible effects. For the personal characteristics, college seniors and those who had previously driven after drinking were more likely to choose to drink and drive, whereas those who expect a jail penalty for a DUI offense were less likely to drive. Our research confirmed and quantified certainty of punishment as the greatest deterrent to DUI, but it also indicated the equally important effect of a severe jail penalty. It provides evidence on the feasibility of using a conjoint

Application of different Scheimpflug-based lens densitometry methods in phacodynamics prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faria-Correia F

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Fernando Faria-Correia,1–5 Bernardo T Lopes,5,6 Isaac C Ramos,5,6 Tiago Monteiro,1,2 Nuno Franqueira,1 Renato Ambrósio Jr5–8 1Ophthalmology Department, Hospital de Braga, Braga, Portugal; 2Life and Health Sciences Research Institute (ICVS, School of Health Sciences, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal; 3ICVS/3B’s - PT Government Associate Laboratory, Braga, Portugal; 4ICVS/3B’s - PT Government Associate Laboratory, Guimarães, Portugal; 5Rio de Janeiro Corneal Tomography and Biomechanics Study Group, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; 6Instituto de Olhos Renato Ambrósio, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; 7VisareRio, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; 8Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil Purpose: To evaluate the correlations between preoperative Scheimpflug-based lens densitometry metrics and phacodynamics. Methods: The Lens Opacities Classification System III (LOCS III was used to grade nuclear opalescence (NO, along with different methods of lens densitometry evaluation (absolute scale from 0% to 100%: three-dimensional (3D, linear, and region of interest (ROI modes. Cumulative dissipated energy (CDE and total ultrasound (US time were recorded and correlated with the different methods of cataract grading. Significant correlations were evaluated using Pearson or Spearman correlation coefficients according to data normality. Results: A positive correlation was detected between the NO score and the average density and the maximum density derived from the 3D mode (r=0.624, P<0.001; r=0.619, P<0.001, respectively and the ROI mode (r=0.600, P<0.001; r=0.642, P<0.001, respectively. Regarding the linear mode, only the average density parameter presented a significant relationship with the NO score (r=0.569, P<0.001. The 3D-derived average density and maximum density were positively correlated with CDE (rho =0.682, P<0.001; rho =0.683, P<0.001, respectively and total US time (rho =0.631 and rho =0

Clinical significance and predictive factors of early massive recurrence after radiofrequency ablation in patients with a single small hepatocellular carcinoma

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Ju-Yeon Cho

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Background/Aims Radiofrequency ablation (RFA is one of the most frequently applied curative treatments in patients with a single small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. However, the clinical significance of and risk factors for early massive recurrence after RFA—a dreadful event limiting further curative treatment—have not been fully evaluated. Methods In total, 438 patients with a single HCC of size ≤3 cm who underwent percutaneous RFA as an initial treatment between 2006 and 2009 were included. Baseline patient characteristics, overall survival, predictive factors, and recurrence after RFA were evaluated. In addition, the incidence, impact on survival, and predictive factors of early massive recurrence, and initial recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 2 years were also investigated. Results During the median follow-up of 68.4 months, recurrent HCC was confirmed in 302 (68.9% patients, with early massive recurrence in 27 patients (6.2%. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 95.4%, 84.7%, and 81.8%, respectively, in patients with no recurrence, 99.6%, 86.4%, and 70.1% in patients with recurrence within the Milan criteria or late recurrence, and 92.6%, 46.5%, and 0.05% in patients with early massive recurrence. Multivariable analysis identified older age, Child-Pugh score B or C, and early massive recurrence as predictive of poor overall survival. A tumor size of ≥2 cm and tumor location adjacent to the colon were independent risk factors predictive of early massive recurrence. Conclusions Early massive recurrence is independently predictive of poor overall survival after RFA in patients with a single small HCC. Tumors sized ≥2 cm and located adjacent to the colon appear to be independent risk factors for early massive recurrence.

Weight comments by family and significant others in young adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenberg, Marla E; Berge, Jerica M; Fulkerson, Jayne A; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2011-01-01

Weight teasing is common among adolescents, but less is known about the continuation of this experience during young adulthood. The present study uses survey data from a diverse sample of 2287 young adults, who participated in a 10-year longitudinal study of weight-related issues to examine hurtful weight comments by family members or a significant other. Among young adults, 35.9% of females and 22.8% of males reported receiving hurtful weight-related comments by family members, and 21.2% of females and 23.8% of males with a significant other had received hurtful weight-related comments from this source. Hispanic and Asian young adults and overweight/obese young adults were more likely to report receiving comments than those in other groups. Weight teasing during adolescence predicted hurtful weight-related comments in young adulthood, with some differences by gender. Findings suggest that hurtful weight talk continues into young adulthood and is predicted by earlier weight teasing experiences. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Do Social Capital and HIV/AIDS Outcomes Geographically Cluster and Which Sociocontextual Mechanisms Predict Differences Across Clusters?

Science.gov (United States)

Ransome, Yusuf; Dean, Lorraine T; Crawford, Natalie D; Metzger, David S; Blank, Michael B; Nunn, Amy S

2017-09-01

Place of residence has been associated with HIV transmission risks. Social capital, defined as features of social organization that improve efficiency of society by facilitating coordinated actions, often varies by neighborhood, and hypothesized to have protective effects on HIV care continuum outcomes. We examined whether the association between social capital and 2 HIV care continuum outcomes clustered geographically and whether sociocontextual mechanisms predict differences across clusters. Bivariate Local Moran's I evaluated geographical clustering in the association between social capital (participation in civic and social organizations, 2006, 2008, 2010) and [5-year (2007-2011) prevalence of late HIV diagnosis and linkage to HIV care] across Philadelphia, PA, census tracts (N = 378). Maps documented the clusters and multinomial regression assessed which sociocontextual mechanisms (eg, racial composition) predict differences across clusters. We identified 4 significant clusters (high social capital-high HIV/AIDS, low social capital-low HIV/AIDS, low social capital-high HIV/AIDS, and high social capital-low HIV/AIDS). Moran's I between social capital and late HIV diagnosis was (I = 0.19, z = 9.54, P social capital was lowest and HIV burden the highest, compared with clusters with high social capital and lowest HIV burden. The association between social participation and HIV care continuum outcomes cluster geographically in Philadelphia, PA. HIV prevention interventions should account for this phenomenon. Reducing geographic disparities will require interventions tailored to each continuum step and that address socioeconomic factors such as neighborhood median income.

Validation of three noninvasive laboratory variables to predict significant fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C in Saudi Arabia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ado, Ayman A.; Al-Swat, Khalid; Azzam, N.; Al-Faleh, Faleh; Ahmed, S.

2007-01-01

We tested the clinical utility of the platelet count, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio, and the AST to platelet ratio index (APRI) score in predicting the presence or absence of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C in Saudi Arabia. Liver biopsy procedures performed on chronic hepatitis C patients in our gastroenterology unit at King Khalid University Hospital were traced form records between 1998 to 2003. The hospital computer database was then accessed and detailed laboratory parameters obtained. By plotting receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), three selected models (platelet count, AST/ALT ratio and the APRI score) were compared in terms of the best variable to predict significant fibrosis. Two hundred and forty-six patients with hepatitis C were included in this analysis. Overall, 26% of patients had advanced fibrosis. When comparing the three above mentioned prediction models, APRI score was the one associated with the highest area under the curve (AUC) = 0.812 (95%Cl, 0.756-0.868) on the ROC curves, compared to the platelet count and AST/ALT ratio, which yielded an AUC of 0.783 (0.711-0.855) and 0.716 (0.642-0.789), respectively. The APRI score seemed to be the best predictive variable for the presence or absence of advanced fibrosis in Saudi hepatitis C patients. (author)

Tundra permafrost thaw causes significant shifts in energy partitioning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Stiegler

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Permafrost, a key component of the arctic and global climate system, is highly sensitive to climate change. Observed and ongoing permafrost degradation influences arctic hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry, and models predict that rapid warming is expected to significantly reduce near-surface permafrost and seasonally frozen ground during the 21st century. These changes raise concern of how permafrost thaw affects the exchange of water and energy with the atmosphere. However, associated impacts of permafrost thaw on the surface energy balance and possible feedbacks on the climate system are largely unknown. In this study, we show that in northern subarctic Sweden, permafrost thaw and related degradation of peat plateaus significantly change the surface energy balance of three peatland complexes by enhancing latent heat flux and, to less degree, also ground heat flux at the cost of sensible heat flux. This effect is valid at all radiation levels but more pronounced at higher radiation levels. The observed differences in flux partitioning mainly result from the strong coupling between soil moisture availability, vegetation composition, albedo and surface structure. Our results suggest that ongoing and predicted permafrost degradation in northern subarctic Sweden ultimately result in changes in land–atmosphere coupling due to changes in the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes. This in turn has crucial implications for how predictive climate models for the Arctic are further developed.

Predicting and Mapping Soil Carbon Using Visible Near Infrared Spectroscopy at Different Scales

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Deng, Fan

. The third objective was to test whether SOC calibration models built for different subdivisions of the Danish soil spectral library according to pedological or geological stratification would improve estimation of SOC content from Vis-NIR scans. The fourth objective was to explore the use of Vis...... in situ measurements for soil spectra may be obtained in spring and autumn, when soils are slightly drier than field capacity. We assumed that the prediction capabilities of the Danish soil spectra library could be improved by dividing it into rather homogeneous subpopulations and building separate...... in these soil cores, but did not improve the calibration of SOC. Interestingly, the prediction ability for SOC increased when the Danish spectral library was spiked with local samples from Vindum. This indicates that the full variation in Danish soils is not yet fully represented in the library. The 3...

Functional connectivity between somatosensory and motor brain areas predicts individual differences in motor learning by observing.

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McGregor, Heather R; Gribble, Paul L

2017-08-01

Action observation can facilitate the acquisition of novel motor skills; however, there is considerable individual variability in the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. Here we tested the hypothesis that individual differences in brain function or structure can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Subjects underwent an anatomical MRI scan and resting-state fMRI scans to assess preobservation gray matter volume and preobservation resting-state functional connectivity (FC), respectively. On the following day, subjects observed a video of a tutor adapting her reaches to a novel force field. After observation, subjects performed reaches in a force field as a behavioral assessment of gains in motor learning resulting from observation. We found that individual differences in resting-state FC, but not gray matter volume, predicted postobservation gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state FC between left primary somatosensory cortex and bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, primary motor cortex, and primary somatosensory cortex and left superior parietal lobule was positively correlated with behavioral measures of postobservation motor learning. Sensory-motor resting-state FC can thus predict the extent to which observation will promote subsequent motor learning. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We show that individual differences in preobservation brain function can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state functional connectivity within a sensory-motor network may be used as a biomarker for the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. This kind of information may be useful if observation is to be used as a way to boost neuroplasticity and sensory-motor recovery for patients undergoing rehabilitation for diseases that impair movement such as stroke. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Slat Noise Predictions Using Higher-Order Finite-Difference Methods on Overset Grids

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Housman, Jeffrey A.; Kiris, Cetin

2016-01-01

Computational aeroacoustic simulations using the structured overset grid approach and higher-order finite difference methods within the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) solver framework are presented for slat noise predictions. The simulations are part of a collaborative study comparing noise generation mechanisms between a conventional slat and a Krueger leading edge flap. Simulation results are compared with experimental data acquired during an aeroacoustic test in the NASA Langley Quiet Flow Facility. Details of the structured overset grid, numerical discretization, and turbulence model are provided.

Increased frequency of retinopathy of prematurity over the last decade and significant regional differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Holmström, Gerd; Tornqvist, Kristina; Al-Hawasi, Abbas; Nilsson, Åsa; Wallin, Agneta; Hellström, Ann

2018-03-01

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) causes childhood blindness globally in prematurely born infants. Although increased levels of oxygen supply lead to increased survival and reduced frequency of cerebral palsy, increased incidence of ROP is reported. With the help of a Swedish register for ROP, SWEDROP, national and regional incidences of ROP and frequencies of treatment were evaluated from 2008 to 2015 (n = 5734), as well as before and after targets of provided oxygen changed from 85-89% to 91-95% in 2014. Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) was found in 31.9% (1829/5734) of all infants with a gestational age (GA) of <31 weeks at birth and 5.7% of the infants (329/5734) had been treated for ROP. Analyses of the national data revealed an increased incidence of ROP during the 8-year study period (p = 0.003), but there was no significant increase in the frequency of treatment. There were significant differences between the seven health regions of Sweden, regarding both incidence of ROP and frequency of treatment (p < 0.001). Comparison of regional data before and after the new oxygen targets revealed a significant increase in treated ROP in one region [OR: 2.24 (CI: 1.11-4.49), p = 0.024] and a borderline increase in one other [OR: 3.08 (CI: 0.99-9.60), p = 0.052]. The Swedish national ROP register revealed an increased incidence of ROP during an 8-year period and significant regional differences regarding the incidence of ROP and frequency of treatment. © 2017 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Racial Discrimination during Adolescence Predicts Mental Health Deterioration in Adulthood: Gender Differences among Blacks.

Science.gov (United States)

Assari, Shervin; Moazen-Zadeh, Ehsan; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard; Zimmerman, Marc A

2017-01-01

Despite the existing knowledge regarding the negative mental health consequences of perceived racial discrimination, very few researchers have used a longitudinal design with long-term follow-up periods to explore gender differences in this association over time. The current longitudinal study aimed to investigate gender differences in predictive role of an increase in perceived racial discrimination during adolescence for mental health deterioration a decade later when they are transitioning to young adulthood. Current study followed 681 Black youths for 18 years from 1994 (mean age 15) to 2012 (mean age 32). All participants spent their adolescence and transition to young adulthood in an economically disadvantaged urban area in the Midwest of the United States. Independent variable was perceived racial discrimination measured in 1999 and 2002. Outcomes were psychological symptoms (anxiety and depression) measured in 1999 and at end of follow-up (2012). Covariates included sociodemographics (age, family structure, and parental employment) measured in 1994. Gender was used to define groups in a multigroup structural equation model to test moderating effects. Multigroup structural equation modeling showed that among male Black youth, an increase in perceived racial discrimination from age 20 to 23 was predictive for an increase in symptoms of anxiety and depression from age 20 to 32. Among female Black youth, change in perceived racial discrimination did not predict future change in depressive or anxiety symptoms. While racial discrimination is associated with negative mental health consequences for both genders, male and female Black youth differ in regard to long-term effects of an increase in perceived discrimination on deterioration of psychological symptoms. Black males seem to be more susceptible than Black females to the psychological effects of an increase in racial discrimination over time.

Racial Discrimination during Adolescence Predicts Mental Health Deterioration in Adulthood: Gender Differences among Blacks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shervin Assari

2017-05-01

Full Text Available BackgroundDespite the existing knowledge regarding the negative mental health consequences of perceived racial discrimination, very few researchers have used a longitudinal design with long-term follow-up periods to explore gender differences in this association over time.ObjectiveThe current longitudinal study aimed to investigate gender differences in predictive role of an increase in perceived racial discrimination during adolescence for mental health deterioration a decade later when they are transitioning to young adulthood.MethodsCurrent study followed 681 Black youths for 18 years from 1994 (mean age 15 to 2012 (mean age 32. All participants spent their adolescence and transition to young adulthood in an economically disadvantaged urban area in the Midwest of the United States. Independent variable was perceived racial discrimination measured in 1999 and 2002. Outcomes were psychological symptoms (anxiety and depression measured in 1999 and at end of follow-up (2012. Covariates included sociodemographics (age, family structure, and parental employment measured in 1994. Gender was used to define groups in a multigroup structural equation model to test moderating effects.ResultsMultigroup structural equation modeling showed that among male Black youth, an increase in perceived racial discrimination from age 20 to 23 was predictive for an increase in symptoms of anxiety and depression from age 20 to 32. Among female Black youth, change in perceived racial discrimination did not predict future change in depressive or anxiety symptoms.ConclusionWhile racial discrimination is associated with negative mental health consequences for both genders, male and female Black youth differ in regard to long-term effects of an increase in perceived discrimination on deterioration of psychological symptoms. Black males seem to be more susceptible than Black females to the psychological effects of an increase in racial discrimination over time.

Model-predicted ammonia emission from two broiler houses with different rearing systems

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Nilsa Duarte Silva Lima

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Ammonia (NH3 emissions from broiler production can affect human and animal health and may cause acidification and eutrophication of the surrounding environment. This study aimed to estimate ammonia emissions from broiler litter in two systems of forced ventilation, the tunnel ventilation (TV and the dark house (DH. The experiment was carried out on eight commercial broiler houses, and the age of the birds (day, d, pH and litter temperature were recorded. Broilers were reared on built-up wood shaving litter using an average flock density of 14 bird m–2. Temperature and relative humidity inside the broiler houses were recorded in the morning during the grow-out period. A factorial experimental design was adopted, with two types of houses, four replicates and two flocks with two replicates each. A deterministic model was used to predict ammonia emissions using the litter pH and temperature, and the day of grow-out. The highest litter temperature and pH were found at 42 d of growth in both housing systems. Mean ambient air temperature and relative humidity did not differ in either system. Mean model predicted ammonia emission was higher in the DH rearing system (5200 mg NH3 m−2h−1 at 42 d than in the TV system (2700 mg NH3m−2 h−1 at 42 d. TV presented the lowest mean litter temperature and pH at 42 d of growth. In the last week of the broilers’ grow-out cycle, estimated ammonia emissions inside DH reached 5700 mg m−2h−1 in one of the flocks. Ammonia emissions were higher inside DH, and they did not differ between flocks. Assuming a broiler market weight in Brazil of close to 2 kg, ammonia emissions were equivalent to 12 g NH3 bird-marketed−1. Model-predicted ammonia emissions provided comprehensible estimations and might be used in abatement strategies for NH3 emission.

Geographic and temporal validity of prediction models: Different approaches were useful to examine model performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.C. Austin (Peter); D. van Klaveren (David); Y. Vergouwe (Yvonne); D. Nieboer (Daan); D.S. Lee (Douglas); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)

2016-01-01

textabstractObjective: Validation of clinical prediction models traditionally refers to the assessment of model performance in new patients. We studied different approaches to geographic and temporal validation in the setting of multicenter data from two time periods. Study Design and Setting: We

Can learning style predict student satisfaction with different instruction methods and academic achievement in medical education?

Science.gov (United States)

Gurpinar, Erol; Alimoglu, Mustafa Kemal; Mamakli, Sumer; Aktekin, Mehmet

2010-12-01

The curriculum of our medical school has a hybrid structure including both traditional training (lectures) and problem-based learning (PBL) applications. The purpose of this study was to determine the learning styles of our medical students and investigate the relation of learning styles with each of satisfaction with different instruction methods and academic achievement in them. This study was carried out with the participation of 170 first-year medical students (the participation rate was 91.4%). The researchers prepared sociodemographic and satisfaction questionnaires to determine the characteristics of the participants and their satisfaction levels with traditional training and PBL. The Kolb learning styles inventory was used to explore the learning styles of the study group. The participants completed all forms at the end of the first year of medical education. Indicators of academic achievement were scores of five theoretical block exams and five PBL exams performed throughout the academic year of 2008-2009. The majority of the participants took part in the "diverging" (n = 84, 47.7%) and "assimilating" (n = 73, 41.5%) groups. Numbers of students in the "converging" and "accommodating" groups were 11 (6.3%) and 8 (4.5%), respectively. In all learning style groups, PBL satisfaction scores were significantly higher than those of traditional training. Exam scores for "PBL and traditional training" did not differ among the four learning styles. In logistic regression analysis, learning style (assimilating) predicted student satisfaction with traditional training and success in theoretical block exams. Nothing predicted PBL satisfaction and success. This is the first study conducted among medical students evaluating the relation of learning style with student satisfaction and academic achievement. More research with larger groups is needed to generalize our results. Some learning styles may relate to satisfaction with and achievement in some instruction methods.

Frequency, probability, and prediction: easy solutions to cognitive illusions?

Science.gov (United States)

Griffin, D; Buehler, R

1999-02-01

Many errors in probabilistic judgment have been attributed to people's inability to think in statistical terms when faced with information about a single case. Prior theoretical analyses and empirical results imply that the errors associated with case-specific reasoning may be reduced when people make frequentistic predictions about a set of cases. In studies of three previously identified cognitive biases, we find that frequency-based predictions are different from-but no better than-case-specific judgments of probability. First, in studies of the "planning fallacy, " we compare the accuracy of aggregate frequency and case-specific probability judgments in predictions of students' real-life projects. When aggregate and single-case predictions are collected from different respondents, there is little difference between the two: Both are overly optimistic and show little predictive validity. However, in within-subject comparisons, the aggregate judgments are significantly more conservative than the single-case predictions, though still optimistically biased. Results from studies of overconfidence in general knowledge and base rate neglect in categorical prediction underline a general conclusion. Frequentistic predictions made for sets of events are no more statistically sophisticated, nor more accurate, than predictions made for individual events using subjective probability. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Gender and developmental differences in exercise beliefs among youth and prediction of their exercise behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, A W; Broda, M A; Frenn, M; Coviak, C; Pender, N J; Ronis, D L

1995-08-01

This study examined gender and developmental differences in exercise-related beliefs and exercise behaviors of 286 racially diverse youth and explored factors predictive of exercise. Compared to males, females reported less prior and current exercise, lower self-esteem, poorer health status, and lower exercise self-schema. Adolescents, in contrast to pre-adolescents, reported less social support for exercise and fewer exercise role models. In a path model, gender, the benefits/barriers differential, and access to exercise facilities and programs directly predicted exercise. Effects of grade, perceived health status, exercise self-efficacy, social support for exercise, and social norms for exercise on exercise behavior, were mediated through the benefits/barriers differential. Effect of race on exercise was mediated by access to exercise facilities and programs. Continued exploration of gender and developmental differences in variables influencing physical activity can yield valuable information for tailoring exercise promotion interventions to the unique needs of youth.

Predicting lower body power from vertical jump prediction equations for loaded jump squats at different intensities in men and women.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Glenn A; Pustina, Andrew A; Mikat, Richard P; Kernozek, Thomas W

2012-03-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of estimating peak lower body power from a maximal jump squat using 3 different vertical jump prediction equations. Sixty physically active college students (30 men, 30 women) performed jump squats with a weighted bar's applied load of 20, 40, and 60% of body mass across the shoulders. Each jump squat was simultaneously monitored using a force plate and a contact mat. Peak power (PP) was calculated using vertical ground reaction force from the force plate data. Commonly used equations requiring body mass and vertical jump height to estimate PP were applied such that the system mass (mass of body + applied load) was substituted for body mass. Jump height was determined from flight time as measured with a contact mat during a maximal jump squat. Estimations of PP (PP(est)) for each load and for each prediction equation were compared with criterion PP values from a force plate (PP(FP)). The PP(est) values had high test-retest reliability and were strongly correlated to PP(FP) in both men and women at all relative loads. However, only the Harman equation accurately predicted PP(FP) at all relative loads. It can therefore be concluded that the Harman equation may be used to estimate PP of a loaded jump squat knowing the system mass and peak jump height when more precise (and expensive) measurement equipment is unavailable. Further, high reliability and correlation with criterion values suggest that serial assessment of power production across training periods could be used for relative assessment of change by either of the prediction equations used in this study.

Full investigation of patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) presenting to four different clinical specialties reveals significant differences and undiagnosed morbidity.

Science.gov (United States)

Sivayoganathan, Dhakshana; Maruthini, Deivanayagam; Glanville, Julie M; Balen, Adam H

2011-12-01

This study aimed to compare the spectrum of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) symptoms in patients from four different specialist clinics. A prospective cross-sectional observational study. The study was conducted at the infertility, gynaecology, endocrine and dermatology clinics at Leeds General Infirmary, U.K. Seventy women presenting with features of PCOS: 20 from infertility, 17 from gynaecology, 17 from dermatology and 16 from endocrine clinics. Participants were assessed for symptoms and signs of PCOS and underwent a full endocrine and metabolic profile and a pelvic ultrasound scan. All subjects had experienced menstrual problems, 81% were overweight, 86% had polycystic ovaries on ultrasound, 56% had hirsutism, 53% had acne, 23% had acanthosis nigricans, 16% had alopecia and 38% had previously undiagnosed impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or diabetes. A significant difference between the four clinic groups existed with regard to menstrual patterns (p = 0.0234), frequency distribution of presenting symptoms and the percentages of patients with PCOS who had already been diagnosed as having PCOS (p = 0.0088). This study emphasizes the importance of understanding the full spectrum of PCOS as presented to different specialty clinics. Not only is the syndrome under diagnosed but also are the significant associated morbidities such as IGT and type 2 diabetes. Different specialists need to appreciate the spectrum of health problems for women with PCOS that may extend beyond the specific symptoms that precipitated the initial referral.

Computational Approach to Annotating Variants of Unknown Significance in Clinical Next Generation Sequencing.

Science.gov (United States)

Schulz, Wade L; Tormey, Christopher A; Torres, Richard

2015-01-01

Next generation sequencing (NGS) has become a common technology in the clinical laboratory, particularly for the analysis of malignant neoplasms. However, most mutations identified by NGS are variants of unknown clinical significance (VOUS). Although the approach to define these variants differs by institution, software algorithms that predict variant effect on protein function may be used. However, these algorithms commonly generate conflicting results, potentially adding uncertainty to interpretation. In this review, we examine several computational tools used to predict whether a variant has clinical significance. In addition to describing the role of these tools in clinical diagnostics, we assess their efficacy in analyzing known pathogenic and benign variants in hematologic malignancies. Copyright© by the American Society for Clinical Pathology (ASCP).

Prediction of parturition in dogs and cats: accuracy at different gestational ages.

Science.gov (United States)

Beccaglia, M; Luvoni, G C

2012-12-01

In bitches and queens, the ultrasonographic measurement of extrafoetal and foetal structures allows the evaluation of gestational age and the prediction of the parturition term for an extended period of time. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the accuracy of parturition date prediction is affected by the week of pregnancy when the ultrasonographic examination is performed. The results were obtained by retrospective analysis on the gestational period basis (from week 4 to week 9 of pregnancy) in 495 ultrasonographic examinations of pregnant bitches (small and medium size) and 60 of pregnant queens. They demonstrated that a similar accuracy (p > 0.05) was obtained by the measurement of inner chorionic cavity at week 4 and 5 of pregnancy (± 1 day, 81% vs 67.7%; ± 2 days, 93.1% vs 85.9%). Accuracy (± 1 day) based on biparietal (BP) measurement was similar at week 5 and 6 of pregnancy (78.6% vs 78.9%; p > 0.05), whereas a significant decrease (p parturition term is highly consistent for 6 and 8 weeks of gestation, respectively. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Prediction of Natural Gas Consumption in Different Regions of China Using a Hybrid MVO-NNGBM Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoyu Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The accurate and reasonable prediction of natural gas consumption is significant for the government to formulate energy planning. To this end, we use the multiverse optimizer (MVO algorithm to optimize the parameters of the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NNGBM (1,1 and propose a hybrid MVO-NNGBM model to predict the natural gas consumption in 30 regions of China. The results indicate that the prediction precision of the hybrid MVO-NNGBM model is better than that of other grey-based models. According to the forecast results, China’s natural gas consumption will grow rapidly over the next five years and reach 354.1 billion cubic meters (bcm by 2020. Moreover, the spatial distribution of natural gas consumption will shift from being supply oriented towards being demand driven and will be mainly concentrated in coastal and developed provinces.

Color Fringe Correction by the Color Difference Prediction Using the Logistic Function.

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, Dong-Won; Park, Rae-Hong

2017-05-01

This paper proposes a new color fringe correction method that preserves the object color well by the color difference prediction using the logistic function. We observe two characteristics between normal edge (NE) and degraded edge (DE) due to color fringe: 1) the DE has relatively smaller R-G and B-G correlations than the NE and 2) the color difference in the NE can be fitted by the logistic function. The proposed method adjusts the color difference of the DE to the logistic function by maximizing the R-G and B-G correlations in the corrected color fringe image. The generalized logistic function with four parameters requires a high computational load to select the optimal parameters. In experiments, a one-parameter optimization can correct color fringe gracefully with a reduced computational load. Experimental results show that the proposed method restores well the original object color in the DE, whereas existing methods give monochromatic or distorted color.

Predictability of bee community composition after floral removals differs by floral trait group.

Science.gov (United States)

Urban-Mead, Katherine R

2017-11-01

Plant-bee visitor communities are complex networks. While studies show that deleting nodes alters network topology, predicting these changes in the field remains difficult. Here, a simple trait-based approach is tested for predicting bee community composition following disturbance. I selected six fields with mixed cover of flower species with shallow (open) and deep (tube) nectar access, and removed all flowers or flower heads of species of each trait in different plots paired with controls, then observed bee foraging and composition. I compared the bee community in each manipulated plot with bees on the same flower species in control plots. The bee morphospecies composition in manipulations with only tube flowers remaining was the same as that in the control plots, while the bee morphospecies on only open flowers were dissimilar from those in control plots. However, the proportion of short- and long-tongued bees on focal flowers did not differ between control and manipulated plots for either manipulation. So, bees within some functional groups are more strongly linked to their floral trait partners than others. And, it may be more fruitful to describe expected bee community compositions in terms of relative proportions of relevant ecological traits than species, particularly in species-diverse communities. © 2017 The Author(s).

Predictive risk modelling under different data access scenarios: who is identified as high risk and for how long?

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Tracy L; Kaldor, Jill; Sutherland, Kim; Humphries, Jacob; Jorm, Louisa R; Levesque, Jean-Frederic

2018-01-01

Objective This observational study critically explored the performance of different predictive risk models simulating three data access scenarios, comparing: (1) sociodemographic and clinical profiles; (2) consistency in high-risk designation across models; and (3) persistence of high-risk status over time. Methods Cross-sectional health survey data (2006–2009) for more than 260 000 Australian adults 45+ years were linked to longitudinal individual hospital, primary care, pharmacy and mortality data. Three risk models predicting acute emergency hospitalisations were explored, simulating conditions where data are accessed through primary care practice management systems, or through hospital-based electronic records, or through a hypothetical ‘full’ model using a wider array of linked data. High-risk patients were identified using different risk score thresholds. Models were reapplied monthly for 24 months to assess persistence in high-risk categorisation. Results The three models displayed similar statistical performance. Three-quarters of patients in the high-risk quintile from the ‘full’ model were also identified using the primary care or hospital-based models, with the remaining patients differing according to age, frailty, multimorbidity, self-rated health, polypharmacy, prior hospitalisations and imminent mortality. The use of higher risk prediction thresholds resulted in lower levels of agreement in high-risk designation across models and greater morbidity and mortality in identified patient populations. Persistence of high-risk status varied across approaches according to updated information on utilisation history, with up to 25% of patients reassessed as lower risk within 1 year. Conclusion/implications Small differences in risk predictors or risk thresholds resulted in comparatively large differences in who was classified as high risk and for how long. Pragmatic predictive risk modelling design decisions based on data availability or projected

The Value of Different Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty Metrics in Predicting Business Performance

OpenAIRE

Neil A. Morgan; Lopo Leotte Rego

2006-01-01

Managers commonly use customer feedback data to set goals and monitor performance on metrics such as “Top 2 Box” customer satisfaction scores and “intention-to-repurchase” loyalty scores. However, analysts have advocated a number of different customer feedback metrics including average customer satisfaction scores and the number of “net promoters” among a firm's customers. We empirically examine which commonly used and widely advocated customer feedback metrics are most valuable in predicting...

Linking Compositional and Functional Predictions to Decipher the Biogeochemical Significance in DFAA Turnover of Abundant Bacterioplankton Lineages in the North Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernd Wemheuer

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Deciphering the ecological traits of abundant marine bacteria is a major challenge in marine microbial ecology. In the current study, we linked compositional and functional predictions to elucidate such traits for abundant bacterioplankton lineages in the North Sea. For this purpose, we investigated entire and active bacterioplankton composition along a transect ranging from the German Bight to the northern North Sea by pyrotag sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA genes and transcripts. Functional profiles were inferred from 16S rRNA data using Tax4Fun. Bacterioplankton communities were dominated by well-known marine lineages including clusters/genera that are affiliated with the Roseobacter group and the Flavobacteria. Variations in community composition and function were significantly explained by measured environmental and microbial properties. Turnover of dissolved free amino acids (DFAA showed the strongest correlation to community composition and function. We applied multinomial models, which enabled us to identify bacterial lineages involved in DFAA turnover. For instance, the genus Planktomarina was more abundant at higher DFAA turnover rates, suggesting its vital role in amino acid degradation. Functional predictions further indicated that Planktomarina is involved in leucine and isoleucine degradation. Overall, our results provide novel insights into the biogeochemical significance of abundant bacterioplankton lineages in the North Sea.

Linking Compositional and Functional Predictions to Decipher the Biogeochemical Significance in DFAA Turnover of Abundant Bacterioplankton Lineages in the North Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Wemheuer, Bernd; Wemheuer, Franziska; Meier, Dimitri; Billerbeck, Sara; Giebel, Helge-Ansgar; Simon, Meinhard; Scherber, Christoph; Daniel, Rolf

2017-11-05

Deciphering the ecological traits of abundant marine bacteria is a major challenge in marine microbial ecology. In the current study, we linked compositional and functional predictions to elucidate such traits for abundant bacterioplankton lineages in the North Sea. For this purpose, we investigated entire and active bacterioplankton composition along a transect ranging from the German Bight to the northern North Sea by pyrotag sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA genes and transcripts. Functional profiles were inferred from 16S rRNA data using Tax4Fun. Bacterioplankton communities were dominated by well-known marine lineages including clusters/genera that are affiliated with the Roseobacter group and the Flavobacteria . Variations in community composition and function were significantly explained by measured environmental and microbial properties. Turnover of dissolved free amino acids (DFAA) showed the strongest correlation to community composition and function. We applied multinomial models, which enabled us to identify bacterial lineages involved in DFAA turnover. For instance, the genus Planktomarina was more abundant at higher DFAA turnover rates, suggesting its vital role in amino acid degradation. Functional predictions further indicated that Planktomarina is involved in leucine and isoleucine degradation. Overall, our results provide novel insights into the biogeochemical significance of abundant bacterioplankton lineages in the North Sea.

Spatiotemporal variability and predictability of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Alberta, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Rengui; Xie, Jiancang; He, Hailong; Kuo, Chun-Chao; Zhu, Jiwei; Yang, Mingxiang

2016-09-01

As one of the most popular vegetation indices to monitor terrestrial vegetation productivity, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to study the plant growth and vegetation productivity around the world, especially the dynamic response of vegetation to climate change in terms of precipitation and temperature. Alberta is the most important agricultural and forestry province and with the best climatic observation systems in Canada. However, few studies pertaining to climate change and vegetation productivity are found. The objectives of this paper therefore were to better understand impacts of climate change on vegetation productivity in Alberta using the NDVI and provide reference for policy makers and stakeholders. We investigated the following: (1) the variations of Alberta's smoothed NDVI (sNDVI, eliminated noise compared to NDVI) and two climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) using non-parametric Mann-Kendall monotonic test and Thiel-Sen's slope; (2) the relationships between sNDVI and climatic variables, and the potential predictability of sNDVI using climatic variables as predictors based on two predicted models; and (3) the use of a linear regression model and an artificial neural network calibrated by the genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) to estimate Alberta's sNDVI using precipitation and temperature as predictors. The results showed that (1) the monthly sNDVI has increased during the past 30 years and a lengthened growing season was detected; (2) vegetation productivity in northern Alberta was mainly temperature driven and the vegetation in southern Alberta was predominantly precipitation driven for the period of 1982-2011; and (3) better performances of the sNDVI-climate relationships were obtained by nonlinear model (ANN-GA) than using linear (regression) model. Similar results detected in both monthly and summer sNDVI prediction using climatic variables as predictors revealed the applicability of two models for

The predictive value of different infant attachment measures for socioemotional development at age 5 years

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Smeekens, S.; Riksen-Walraven, J.M.A.; Bakel, H.J.A. van

2009-01-01

The predictive value of different infant attachment measures was examined in a community-based sample of 111 healthy children (59 boys, 52 girls). Two procedures to assess infant attachment, the Attachment Q-Set (applied on a relatively short observation period) and a shortened version of the

Web-based thyroid imaging reporting and data system: Malignancy risk of atypia of undetermined significance or follicular lesion of undetermined significance thyroid nodules calculated by a combination of ultrasonography features and biopsy results.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Young Jun; Baek, Jung Hwan; Shin, Jung Hee; Shim, Woo Hyun; Kim, Seon-Ok; Lee, Won-Hong; Song, Dong Eun; Kim, Tae Yong; Chung, Ki-Wook; Lee, Jeong Hyun

2018-05-13

The purpose of this study was to construct a web-based predictive model using ultrasound characteristics and subcategorized biopsy results for thyroid nodules of atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS) to stratify the risk of malignancy. Data included 672 thyroid nodules from 656 patients from a historical cohort. We analyzed ultrasound images of thyroid nodules and biopsy results according to nuclear atypia and architectural atypia. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to predict whether nodules were diagnosed as malignant or benign. The ultrasound features, including spiculated margin, marked hypoechogenicity, calcifications, biopsy results, and cytologic atypia, showed significant differences between groups. A 13-point risk scoring system was developed, and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the development and validation sets were 0.837 and 0.830, respectively (http://www.gap.kr/thyroidnodule_b3.php). We devised a web-based predictive model using the combined information of ultrasound characteristics and biopsy results for AUS/FLUS thyroid nodules to stratify the malignant risk. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using the Bootstrap Method for a Statistical Significance Test of Differences between Summary Histograms

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Kuan-Man

2006-01-01

A new method is proposed to compare statistical differences between summary histograms, which are the histograms summed over a large ensemble of individual histograms. It consists of choosing a distance statistic for measuring the difference between summary histograms and using a bootstrap procedure to calculate the statistical significance level. Bootstrapping is an approach to statistical inference that makes few assumptions about the underlying probability distribution that describes the data. Three distance statistics are compared in this study. They are the Euclidean distance, the Jeffries-Matusita distance and the Kuiper distance. The data used in testing the bootstrap method are satellite measurements of cloud systems called cloud objects. Each cloud object is defined as a contiguous region/patch composed of individual footprints or fields of view. A histogram of measured values over footprints is generated for each parameter of each cloud object and then summary histograms are accumulated over all individual histograms in a given cloud-object size category. The results of statistical hypothesis tests using all three distances as test statistics are generally similar, indicating the validity of the proposed method. The Euclidean distance is determined to be most suitable after comparing the statistical tests of several parameters with distinct probability distributions among three cloud-object size categories. Impacts on the statistical significance levels resulting from differences in the total lengths of satellite footprint data between two size categories are also discussed.

Comparing Spatial Predictions

KAUST Repository

Hering, Amanda S.

2011-11-01

Under a general loss function, we develop a hypothesis test to determine whether a significant difference in the spatial predictions produced by two competing models exists on average across the entire spatial domain of interest. The null hypothesis is that of no difference, and a spatial loss differential is created based on the observed data, the two sets of predictions, and the loss function chosen by the researcher. The test assumes only isotropy and short-range spatial dependence of the loss differential but does allow it to be non-Gaussian, non-zero-mean, and spatially correlated. Constant and nonconstant spatial trends in the loss differential are treated in two separate cases. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the size and power properties of this test, and an example based on daily average wind speeds in Oklahoma is used for illustration. Supplemental results are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Qualitys.

Prediction of Metastasis Using Second Harmonic Generation

Science.gov (United States)

2016-07-01

small but statistically significant difference in average F/B of treated US patients versus untreated Dutch patients. Fig. 1. Display of all...predictive ability of models incorporating F/B using a multivariate linear model, but this time applying the analysis to the entire ER+ and ER- cohort. As...AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0040 TITLE: Prediction of Metastasis Using Second Harmonic Generation PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Edward Brown

Short-term predictive capacity of two different triage systems in patients with acute heart failure: TRICA-EAHFE study.

Science.gov (United States)

Miró, Òscar; Tost, Josep; Herrero, Pablo; Jacob, Javier; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco Javier; Gil, Víctor; Fernández-Pérez, Cristina; Escoda, Rosa; Llorens, Pere

2016-12-01

To evaluate whether prioritization of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) in the Andorran Triage Model/Spanish Triage System (MAT/SET) and the Manchester Triage System (MTS) also allows the identification of different profiles of outcome and prognosis and determine whether either system has a better predictive capacity of outcomes. Patients with AHF included in the Spanish EAHFE registry from hospitals using the MAT/SET or MTS were selected and divided according to the triage system used. Outcome variables included hospital admission, length of stay, death during admission, 3, 7, and 30-day all-cause mortality, and emergency department (ED) reconsultation at 30 days. The results were compared according to the level of priority and the triage system used. We included 3837 patients (MAT/SET=2474; MTS=1363) classified as follows: 4.0% level 1; 34.7% level 2; 55.1% level 3; and 6.3% levels 4-5. Both systems associated greater priority with higher rates of admission and mortality; the MTS associated greater priority with greater ED reconsultation and the MAT/SET found greater priority to be associated with less ED reconsultation. The discriminative capacity of the two scales for adverse outcomes was statistically significant, albeit poor, for almost all the outcome events and it was of scarce clinical relevance (Area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic between 0.458 and 0.661). The prediction of the outcome of patients with AHF determined with the MAT/SET or MTS showed scarce differences between the two systems, and their discriminative capacity does not seem to be clinically relevant.

Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

2013-08-01

This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

A proposal for a pharmacokinetic interaction significance classification system (PISCS) based on predicted drug exposure changes and its potential application to alert classifications in product labelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Hisaka, Akihiro; Kusama, Makiko; Ohno, Yoshiyuki; Sugiyama, Yuichi; Suzuki, Hiroshi

2009-01-01

Pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are one of the major causes of adverse events in pharmacotherapy, and systematic prediction of the clinical relevance of DDIs is an issue of significant clinical importance. In a previous study, total exposure changes of many substrate drugs of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 caused by coadministration of inhibitor drugs were successfully predicted by using in vivo information. In order to exploit these predictions in daily pharmacotherapy, the clinical significance of the pharmacokinetic changes needs to be carefully evaluated. The aim of the present study was to construct a pharmacokinetic interaction significance classification system (PISCS) in which the clinical significance of DDIs was considered with pharmacokinetic changes in a systematic manner. Furthermore, the classifications proposed by PISCS were compared in a detailed manner with current alert classifications in the product labelling or the summary of product characteristics used in Japan, the US and the UK. A matrix table was composed by stratifying two basic parameters of the prediction: the contribution ratio of CYP3A4 to the oral clearance of substrates (CR), and the inhibition ratio of inhibitors (IR). The total exposure increase was estimated for each cell in the table by associating CR and IR values, and the cells were categorized into nine zones according to the magnitude of the exposure increase. Then, correspondences between the DDI significance and the zones were determined for each drug group considering the observed exposure changes and the current classification in the product labelling. Substrate drugs of CYP3A4 selected from three therapeutic groups, i.e. HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins), calcium-channel antagonists/blockers (CCBs) and benzodiazepines (BZPs), were analysed as representative examples. The product labelling descriptions of drugs in Japan, US and UK were obtained from the websites of each regulatory body. Among 220

Clinical Significance and Characteristic Clinical Differences of Cytolytic Vaginosis in Recurrent Vulvovaginitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Shuhua; Zhang, Yuexiang; Liu, Ying; Wang, Jianhong; Chen, Shuqin; Li, Shuxia

2017-01-01

The study aimed to evaluate whether cytolytic vaginosis (CV) has important clinical implications for recurrent vulvovaginitis and to identify clinical differences between CV and vulvovaginal candidosis (VVC). Medical histories, physical examinations and laboratory findings were used to diagnose and assess the prevalence rates of various vulvovaginal infections among 536 women with recurrent vulvovaginitis. Chi-square and Fisher exact tests were used to compare age, menstrual cycle phase at episode onset, symptoms/signs of infection and discharge characteristics between CV and VVC with single infection. Among the 484 women with a single-infection recurrent vulvovaginitis, the prevalence of CV (n = 143; 26.7%) was second only to VVC (n = 196; 36.6%). CV symptoms occurred predominantly during the ovulatory and luteal phases. Meanwhile, VVC episodes were not concentrated premenstrually, but rather occurred throughout the menstrual cycle. Significant differences were found in the vaginal pH, discharge characteristics and frequency of inflammatory symptoms between the 2 groups. CV is clinically important, because it is a common cause of recurrent vulvovaginitis. To distinguish CV from VVC, gynecologists should consider the patient's medical history, physical and laboratory findings, vaginal pH and vaginal discharge characteristics. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Using different assumptions of aerosol mixing state and chemical composition to predict CCN concentrations based on field measurements in urban Beijing

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Jingye; Zhang, Fang; Wang, Yuying; Collins, Don; Fan, Xinxin; Jin, Xiaoai; Xu, Weiqi; Sun, Yele; Cribb, Maureen; Li, Zhanqing

2018-05-01

Understanding the impacts of aerosol chemical composition and mixing state on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity in polluted areas is crucial for accurately predicting CCN number concentrations (NCCN). In this study, we predict NCCN under five assumed schemes of aerosol chemical composition and mixing state based on field measurements in Beijing during the winter of 2016. Our results show that the best closure is achieved with the assumption of size dependent chemical composition for which sulfate, nitrate, secondary organic aerosols, and aged black carbon are internally mixed with each other but externally mixed with primary organic aerosol and fresh black carbon (external-internal size-resolved, abbreviated as EI-SR scheme). The resulting ratios of predicted-to-measured NCCN (RCCN_p/m) were 0.90 - 0.98 under both clean and polluted conditions. Assumption of an internal mixture and bulk chemical composition (INT-BK scheme) shows good closure with RCCN_p/m of 1.0 -1.16 under clean conditions, implying that it is adequate for CCN prediction in continental clean regions. On polluted days, assuming the aerosol is internally mixed and has a chemical composition that is size dependent (INT-SR scheme) achieves better closure than the INT-BK scheme due to the heterogeneity and variation in particle composition at different sizes. The improved closure achieved using the EI-SR and INT-SR assumptions highlight the importance of measuring size-resolved chemical composition for CCN predictions in polluted regions. NCCN is significantly underestimated (with RCCN_p/m of 0.66 - 0.75) when using the schemes of external mixtures with bulk (EXT-BK scheme) or size-resolved composition (EXT-SR scheme), implying that primary particles experience rapid aging and physical mixing processes in urban Beijing. However, our results show that the aerosol mixing state plays a minor role in CCN prediction when the κorg exceeds 0.1.

Humidity build-up in electronic enclosures exposed to different geographical locations by RC modelling and reliability prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Conseil-Gudla, H.; Staliulionis, Z.; Mohanty, S.

2018-01-01

according to this steady state (25 °C and 60% RH) have been calculated for the different climates, and the protection offered by the enclosures has been estimated under different casing materials and resistor-capacitor (RC) simulation. This method offers a way to predict the average value of failure rate...

Intercomparison of Different Energy Prediction Methods Within the European Project "Performance" - Results of the 1st Round Robin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Friesen, G.; Gottschalg, R.; Beyer, H.G.; Williams, S.R.; van Sark, W.G.J.H.M.; Guérin de Montgareuil, A.; van der Borg, N; Huld, T.; Müller, B.; de Keizer, A.C.; Niu, Y.

2007-01-01

Eight separate energy prediction methods, developed independently across European Universities and Research Centres, have been compared with respect to their estimated DC energy generation for five different photovoltaic (PV) module technologies and 7 different sites distributed over whole Europe.

Super-resolution structure of DNA significantly differs in buccal cells of controls and Alzheimer's patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Angeles; Huang, David; Righolt, Amanda; Righolt, Christiaan; Kalaw, Maria Carmela; Mathur, Shubha; McAvoy, Elizabeth; Anderson, James; Luedke, Angela; Itorralba, Justine; Mai, Sabine

2017-09-01

The advent of super-resolution microscopy allowed for new insights into cellular and physiological processes of normal and diseased cells. In this study, we report for the first time on the super-resolved DNA structure of buccal cells from patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) versus age- and gender-matched healthy, non-caregiver controls. In this super-resolution study cohort of 74 participants, buccal cells were collected and their spatial DNA organization in the nucleus examined by 3D Structured Illumination Microscopy (3D-SIM). Quantitation of the super-resolution DNA structure revealed that the nuclear super-resolution DNA structure of individuals with AD significantly differs from that of their controls (p structure of AD significantly differs in mild, moderate, and severe disease with respect to the DNA-containing and DNA-free/poor spaces. We conclude that whole genome remodeling is a feature of buccal cells in AD. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Cellular Physiology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evolutionary modeling and prediction of non-coding RNAs in Drosophila.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert K Bradley

2009-08-01

Full Text Available We performed benchmarks of phylogenetic grammar-based ncRNA gene prediction, experimenting with eight different models of structural evolution and two different programs for genome alignment. We evaluated our models using alignments of twelve Drosophila genomes. We find that ncRNA prediction performance can vary greatly between different gene predictors and subfamilies of ncRNA gene. Our estimates for false positive rates are based on simulations which preserve local islands of conservation; using these simulations, we predict a higher rate of false positives than previous computational ncRNA screens have reported. Using one of the tested prediction grammars, we provide an updated set of ncRNA predictions for D. melanogaster and compare them to previously-published predictions and experimental data. Many of our predictions show correlations with protein-coding genes. We found significant depletion of intergenic predictions near the 3' end of coding regions and furthermore depletion of predictions in the first intron of protein-coding genes. Some of our predictions are colocated with larger putative unannotated genes: for example, 17 of our predictions showing homology to the RFAM family snoR28 appear in a tandem array on the X chromosome; the 4.5 Kbp spanned by the predicted tandem array is contained within a FlyBase-annotated cDNA.

Different meanings of the social dominance orientation concept: predicting political attitudes over time.

Science.gov (United States)

Jetten, Jolanda; Iyer, Aarti

2010-06-01

We examined predictors of political attitude change by assessing the independent and interactive effect of social dominance orientation (SDO) as a context-dependent versus an individual difference construct. In a longitudinal study, British students' political orientation was assessed before entering university (T1) and after being at university for 2 months (T2) and 6 months (T3; N=109). Results showed that initial SDO (T1) did not predict political attitudes change nor did it predict self-selected entry into course with hierarchy enhancing or hierarchy-attenuating ideologies. More support was obtained for a contextually determined model whereby SDO (T2) mediated the relationship between social class (T1) and political attitude change (T3). We also found support for mediated moderation in accounting for effects of initial SDO on political attitude change. Findings suggest that SDO as a concept that is sensitive to group dynamics is best suited to explain shifts in political attitudes.

Does the ability to express different emotions predict different indices of physical health? A skill-based study of physical symptoms and heart rate variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuck, Natalie L; Adams, Kathryn S; Consedine, Nathan S

2017-09-01

of contribution What is already known on this subject The tendency to outwardly express felt emotion generally predicts better health, whereas expressive suppression typically predicts worse health outcomes. Most work has been based on trait assessments; however, the ability to regulate the expression of felt emotion can be objectively assessed using performance-based tests. Prior work in mental health suggests that the ability to flexibly up- and downregulate the expression of emotion predicts better outcomes. What does this study add The first evidence that the ability to flexibly regulate expressions predicts indices of health. Skill in both expressing and suppressing facial expressions predicts better reported health. Skills with different emotions differentially predict symptom interference and cardiac vagal tone. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Regional Differences in Brain Volume Predict the Acquisition of Skill in a Complex Real-Time Strategy Videogame

Science.gov (United States)

Basak, Chandramallika; Voss, Michelle W.; Erickson, Kirk I.; Boot, Walter R.; Kramer, Arthur F.

2011-01-01

Previous studies have found that differences in brain volume among older adults predict performance in laboratory tasks of executive control, memory, and motor learning. In the present study we asked whether regional differences in brain volume as assessed by the application of a voxel-based morphometry technique on high resolution MRI would also…

Can parenting practices predict externalizing behavior problems among children with hearing impairment?

Science.gov (United States)

Pino, María J; Castillo, Rosa A; Raya, Antonio; Herruzo, Javier

2017-11-09

To identify possible differences in the level of externalizing behavior problems among children with and without hearing impairment and determine whether any relationship exists between this type of problem and parenting practices. The Behavior Assessment System for Children was used to evaluate externalizing variables in a sample of 118 boys and girls divided into two matched groups: 59 with hearing disorders and 59 normal-hearing controls. Significant between-group differences were found in hyperactivity, behavioral problems, and externalizing problems, but not in aggression. Significant differences were also found in various aspects of parenting styles. A model for predicting externalizing behavior problems was constructed, achieving a predicted explained variance of 50%. Significant differences do exist between adaptation levels in children with and without hearing impairment. Parenting style also plays an important role.

Predicting Performance in Higher Education Using Proximal Predictors

Science.gov (United States)

Niessen, A. Susan M.; Meijer, Rob R.; Tendeiro, Jorge N.

2016-01-01

We studied the validity of two methods for predicting academic performance and student-program fit that were proximal to important study criteria. Applicants to an undergraduate psychology program participated in a selection procedure containing a trial-studying test based on a work sample approach, and specific skills tests in English and math. Test scores were used to predict academic achievement and progress after the first year, achievement in specific course types, enrollment, and dropout after the first year. All tests showed positive significant correlations with the criteria. The trial-studying test was consistently the best predictor in the admission procedure. We found no significant differences between the predictive validity of the trial-studying test and prior educational performance, and substantial shared explained variance between the two predictors. Only applicants with lower trial-studying scores were significantly less likely to enroll in the program. In conclusion, the trial-studying test yielded predictive validities similar to that of prior educational performance and possibly enabled self-selection. In admissions aimed at student-program fit, or in admissions in which past educational performance is difficult to use, a trial-studying test is a good instrument to predict academic performance. PMID:27073859

Significant differences in physicochemical properties of human immunoglobulin kappa and lambda CDR3 regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine L Townsend

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Antibody variable regions are composed of a heavy and a light chain and in humans there are two light chain isotypes: kappa and lambda. Despite their importance in receptor editing, the light chain is often overlooked in the antibody literature, with the focus being on the heavy chain CDR-H3 region. In this paper, we set out to investigate the physicochemical and structural differences between human kappa and lambda light chain CDR regions. We constructed a dataset containing over 29,000 - light chain variable region sequences from IgM-transcribing, newly formed B cells isolated from human bone marrow and peripheral blood. We also used a published human naïve dataset to investigate the CDR-H3 properties of heavy chains paired with kappa and lambda light chains, and probed the Protein Data Bank (PDB to investigate the structural differences between kappa and lambda antibody CDR regions. We found that kappa and lambda light chains have very different CDR physicochemical and structural properties, whereas the heavy chains with which they are paired do not differ significantly. We also observed that the mean CDR3 N nucleotide addition in the kappa, lambda and heavy chain gene rearrangements are correlated within donors, but can differ between donors. This indicates that TdT may work with differing efficiencies between different people, but the same efficiency in the different classes of immunoglobulin chain within one person. We have observed large differences in the physicochemical and structural properties of kappa and lambda light chain CDR regions. This may reflect different roles in the humoral immune response.

Significant Differences in Physicochemical Properties of Human Immunoglobulin Kappa and Lambda CDR3 Regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Townsend, Catherine L; Laffy, Julie M J; Wu, Yu-Chang Bryan; Silva O'Hare, Joselli; Martin, Victoria; Kipling, David; Fraternali, Franca; Dunn-Walters, Deborah K

2016-01-01

Antibody variable regions are composed of a heavy and a light chain, and in humans, there are two light chain isotypes: kappa and lambda. Despite their importance in receptor editing, the light chain is often overlooked in the antibody literature, with the focus being on the heavy chain complementarity-determining region (CDR)-H3 region. In this paper, we set out to investigate the physicochemical and structural differences between human kappa and lambda light chain CDR regions. We constructed a dataset containing over 29,000 light chain variable region sequences from IgM-transcribing, newly formed B cells isolated from human bone marrow and peripheral blood. We also used a published human naïve dataset to investigate the CDR-H3 properties of heavy chains paired with kappa and lambda light chains and probed the Protein Data Bank to investigate the structural differences between kappa and lambda antibody CDR regions. We found that kappa and lambda light chains have very different CDR physicochemical and structural properties, whereas the heavy chains with which they are paired do not differ significantly. We also observed that the mean CDR3 N nucleotide addition in the kappa, lambda, and heavy chain gene rearrangements are correlated within donors but can differ between donors. This indicates that terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase may work with differing efficiencies between different people but the same efficiency in the different classes of immunoglobulin chain within one person. We have observed large differences in the physicochemical and structural properties of kappa and lambda light chain CDR regions. This may reflect different roles in the humoral immune response.

Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Karen L; Veile, Amanda; Otárola-Castillo, Erik

2016-01-01

Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children's growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children's monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1) as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2) competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3) however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children's growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children's growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children's growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance.

Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen L Kramer

Full Text Available Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children's growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children's monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1 as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2 competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3 however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children's growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children's growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children's growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance.

Theoretical Predictions of Springing and Their Comparison with Full Scale Measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gu, X.; Storhaug, G.; Vidic-Perunovic, Jelena

2003-01-01

The present paper considers a large ocean going ship with significant springing responses, which have made a large contribution to the fatigue cracking for certain structural details. Four different theories for predicting ship responses and associated computer programs for predictions of springing...

Does functional capacity, fall risk awareness and physical activity level predict falls in older adults in different age groups?

Science.gov (United States)

Moreira, Natália Boneti; Rodacki, Andre Luiz Felix; Pereira, Gléber; Bento, Paulo Cesar Barauce

2018-04-11

The aims of this study were to examine whether: i) functional capacity and physical activity level differ between fallers and non-fallers older adults, by controlling for fall risk awareness; ii) functional capacity, fall risk awareness and physical activity differ between fallers and non-fallers older adults, by controlling for age; iii) variables and which may predict falls in different age groups. 1826 older adults performed a series of functional tests and reported their fall episodes, fall risk awareness and physical activity level. The overall incidence of falls was high (40.2%), and falls risk awareness scores reduced with age. The older adults with greater falls risk awareness and non-fallers presented better scores in all functional tests and physical activity level (P age groups and differed between fallers and non-fallers, irrespective of age group (P age groups (odds ranging: 1.05-1.09). Handgrip strength and balance scores predicted falls until 79 years (OR = 1.04, 95%CI = 1.01-1.06). The physical activity level predicted falls up to 70 years (OR = 1.09, 95%CI = 1.06-1.12). Functional mobility was able to predict falls up to 80 years (OR = 1.06, 95%CI = 1.01-1.08). Therefore, according to age, functional capacity, physical activity level and falls risk awareness can be a predictor of falls in older adults. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flirting with disaster: short-term mating orientation and hostile sexism predict different types of sexual harassment.

Science.gov (United States)

Diehl, Charlotte; Rees, Jonas; Bohner, Gerd

2012-01-01

We combine evolutionary and sociocultural accounts of sexual harassment, proposing that sexuality-related and hostility-related motives lead to different types of harassment. Specifically, men's short-term mating orientation (STMO) was hypothesized to predict only unwanted sexual attention but not gender harassment, whereas men's hostile sexism (HS) was hypothesized to predict both unwanted sexual attention and gender harassment. As part of an alleged computer-chat task, 100 male students could send sexualized personal remarks (representing unwanted sexual attention), sexist jokes (representing gender harassment), or nonharassing material to an attractive female target. Independently, participants' STMO, HS, and sexual harassment myth acceptance (SHMA) were assessed. Correlational and path analyses revealed that STMO specifically predicted unwanted sexual attention, whereas HS predicted both unwanted sexual attention and gender harassment. Furthermore, SHMA fully mediated the effect of HS on gender harassment, but did not mediate effects of STMO or HS on unwanted sexual attention. Results are discussed in relation to motivational explanations for sexual harassment and antiharassment interventions. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Testing Significance Testing

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Joachim I. Krueger

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The practice of Significance Testing (ST remains widespread in psychological science despite continual criticism of its flaws and abuses. Using simulation experiments, we address four concerns about ST and for two of these we compare ST’s performance with prominent alternatives. We find the following: First, the 'p' values delivered by ST predict the posterior probability of the tested hypothesis well under many research conditions. Second, low 'p' values support inductive inferences because they are most likely to occur when the tested hypothesis is false. Third, 'p' values track likelihood ratios without raising the uncertainties of relative inference. Fourth, 'p' values predict the replicability of research findings better than confidence intervals do. Given these results, we conclude that 'p' values may be used judiciously as a heuristic tool for inductive inference. Yet, 'p' values cannot bear the full burden of inference. We encourage researchers to be flexible in their selection and use of statistical methods.

Audiovisual biofeedback improves motion prediction accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Pollock, Sean; Lee, Danny; Keall, Paul; Kim, Taeho

2013-04-01

The accuracy of motion prediction, utilized to overcome the system latency of motion management radiotherapy systems, is hampered by irregularities present in the patients' respiratory pattern. Audiovisual (AV) biofeedback has been shown to reduce respiratory irregularities. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that AV biofeedback improves the accuracy of motion prediction. An AV biofeedback system combined with real-time respiratory data acquisition and MR images were implemented in this project. One-dimensional respiratory data from (1) the abdominal wall (30 Hz) and (2) the thoracic diaphragm (5 Hz) were obtained from 15 healthy human subjects across 30 studies. The subjects were required to breathe with and without the guidance of AV biofeedback during each study. The obtained respiratory signals were then implemented in a kernel density estimation prediction algorithm. For each of the 30 studies, five different prediction times ranging from 50 to 1400 ms were tested (150 predictions performed). Prediction error was quantified as the root mean square error (RMSE); the RMSE was calculated from the difference between the real and predicted respiratory data. The statistical significance of the prediction results was determined by the Student's t-test. Prediction accuracy was considerably improved by the implementation of AV biofeedback. Of the 150 respiratory predictions performed, prediction accuracy was improved 69% (103/150) of the time for abdominal wall data, and 78% (117/150) of the time for diaphragm data. The average reduction in RMSE due to AV biofeedback over unguided respiration was 26% (p biofeedback improves prediction accuracy. This would result in increased efficiency of motion management techniques affected by system latencies used in radiotherapy.

Significant increase of Echinococcus multilocularis prevalencein foxes, but no increased predicted risk for humans

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maas, M.; Dam-Deisz, W.D.C.; Roon, van A.M.; Takumi, K.; Giessen, van der J.W.B.

2014-01-01

The emergence of the zoonotic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis, causative agent ofalveolar echinococcosis (AE), poses a public health risk. A previously designed risk mapmodel predicted a spread of E. multilocularis and increasing numbers of alveolar echinococ-cosis patients in the province of

The importance of different frequency bands in predicting subcutaneous glucose concentration in type 1 diabetic patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Yinghui; Gribok, Andrei V; Ward, W Kenneth; Reifman, Jaques

2010-08-01

We investigated the relative importance and predictive power of different frequency bands of subcutaneous glucose signals for the short-term (0-50 min) forecasting of glucose concentrations in type 1 diabetic patients with data-driven autoregressive (AR) models. The study data consisted of minute-by-minute glucose signals collected from nine deidentified patients over a five-day period using continuous glucose monitoring devices. AR models were developed using single and pairwise combinations of frequency bands of the glucose signal and compared with a reference model including all bands. The results suggest that: for open-loop applications, there is no need to explicitly represent exogenous inputs, such as meals and insulin intake, in AR models; models based on a single-frequency band, with periods between 60-120 min and 150-500 min, yield good predictive power (error bands produce predictions that are indistinguishable from those of the reference model as long as the 60-120 min period band is included; and AR models can be developed on signals of short length (approximately 300 min), i.e., ignoring long circadian rhythms, without any detriment in prediction accuracy. Together, these findings provide insights into efficient development of more effective and parsimonious data-driven models for short-term prediction of glucose concentrations in diabetic patients.

Gender differences in the predictive role of self-rated health on short-term risk of mortality among older adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shervin Assari

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Despite the well-established association between self-rated health and mortality, research findings have been inconsistent regarding how men and women differ on this link. Using a national sample in the United States, this study compared American male and female older adults for the predictive role of baseline self-rated health on the short-term risk of mortality. Methods: This longitudinal study followed 1500 older adults (573 men (38.2% and 927 women (61.8% aged 66 years or older for 3 years from 2001 to 2004. The main predictor of interest was self-rated health, which was measured using a single item in 2001. The outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality during the 3-year follow-up period. Demographic factors (race and age, socio-economic factors (education and marital status, and health behaviors (smoking and drinking were covariates. Gender was the focal moderator. We ran logistic regression models in the pooled sample and also stratified by gender, with self-rated health treated as either nominal variables, poor compared to other levels (i.e. fair, good, or excellent or excellent compared to other levels (i.e. good, fair, or poor, or an ordinal variable. Results: In the pooled sample, baseline self-rated health predicted mortality risk, regardless of how the variable was treated. We found a significant interaction between gender and poor self-rated health, indicating a stronger effect of poor self-rated health on mortality risk for men compared to women. Gender did not interact with excellent self-rated health on mortality. Conclusion: Perceived poor self-rated health better reflects risk of mortality over a short period of time for older men compared to older women. Clinicians may need to take poor self-rated health of older men very seriously. Future research should test whether the differential predictive validity of self-rated health based on gender is due to a different meaning of poor self-rated health for older men

Trading network predicts stock price.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

2014-01-16

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

Coherent Motion Sensitivity Predicts Individual Differences in Subtraction

Science.gov (United States)

Boets, Bart; De Smedt, Bert; Ghesquiere, Pol

2011-01-01

Recent findings suggest deficits in coherent motion sensitivity, an index of visual dorsal stream functioning, in children with poor mathematical skills or dyscalculia, a specific learning disability in mathematics. We extended these data using a longitudinal design to unravel whether visual dorsal stream functioning is able to "predict"…

Defining and determining the significance of impacts: concepts and methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Christensen, S.W.; Van Winkle, W.; Mattice, J.S.

1975-01-01

The term impact is conceptually and mathematically defined to be the difference in the state or value of an ecosystem with versus without the source of impact. Some resulting problems associated with the measurement of impacts based on comparisons of baseline and operational data are discussed briefly. The concept of a significant adverse impact on a biological system is operationally defined in terms of an adverse impact which, according to a proposed decision-tree, justifies rejection of a project or a change in its site, design, or mode of operation. A gradient of increasing difficulty in the prediction of impacts exists as the scope of the assessment is expanded to consider long-term, far-field impacts with respect to higher levels of biological organization (e.g., communities or ecosystems). The analytical methods available for predicting short-term, near-field impacts are discussed. Finally, the role of simulation modeling as an aid to professional judgment in predicting the long-term, far-field consequences of impacts is considered, and illustrated with an example. (U.S.)

Small airway function changes and its clinical significance of asthma patients in different clinical phases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan-Hui Zhou

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Objective: To observe the small airways function changes of asthmatic patients in different clinical phases and to discuss its clinical significance. Methods: A total of 127 patients diagnosed as asthma were selected randomly and pulmonary function (PF of them was determined by conventional method. Then they were divided into A, B and C group based on PF results. All 34 patients in A group suffered from acute asthma attack for the first time. All 93 patients in B group had been diagnosed as asthma but in remission phase. C Group was regarded as Control group with 20 healthy volunteers. Then FEV1, FEF50%, FEF75% levels of patients in each group were analyzed, and ΔFEV1, ΔFEF75% and ΔFEF50% levels of patients in each group were compared after bronchial dilation test. Results: It was found that most patients in group A and B had abnormal small airways function, and their small airways function was significantly different compared with that of group C (P<0.01. In addition, except for group C, ΔFEF75%,ΔFEF50% levels in A and B group were improved more significantly than ΔFEV1 levels (P<0.01. Conclusions: Asthma patients in acute phase all have abnormal small airways function. Most asthma patients in remission phase also have abnormal small airways function. After bronchial dilation test, whether patients in acute phase or in remission phase, major and small airways function of them are improved, but improvement of small airways function is weaker than that of major airways. This indicates that asthma respiratory tract symptoms in different phases exists all the time and so therapeutic process is needed to perform step by step.

Significance analysis of the regional differences on icing time of water onto fire protective clothing

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, L. Z.; Jing, L. S.; Zhang, X. Z.; Xia, J. J.; Chen, Y.; Chen, T.; Hu, C.; Bao, Z. M.; Fu, X. C.; Wang, R. J.; Wang, Y.; Wang, Y. J.

2017-09-01

The object of this work was to determine the icing temperature in icing experiment. Firstly, a questionnaire investigation was carried out on 38 fire detachments in different regions. These Statistical percentage results were divided into northern east group and northern west group. Secondly, a significance analysis between these two results was made using Mann-Whitney U test. Then the icing temperature was determined in different regions. Thirdly, the icing experiment was made in the environment of -20°C in Daxing’an Mountain. The anti-icing effect of new fire protective clothing was verified in this icing.

The assessment of different models to predict solar module temperature, output power and efficiency for Nis, Serbia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pantic, Lana S.; Pavlović, Tomislav M.; Milosavljević, Dragana D.; Radonjic, Ivana S.; Radovic, Miodrag K.; Sazhko, Galina

2016-01-01

Five different models for calculating solar module temperature, output power and efficiency for sunny days with different solar radiation intensities and ambient temperatures are assessed in this paper. Thereafter, modeled values are compared to the experimentally obtained values for the horizontal solar module in Nis, Serbia. The criterion for determining the best model was based on the statistical analysis and the agreement between the calculated and the experimental values. The calculated values of solar module temperature are in good agreement with the experimentally obtained ones, with some variations over and under the measured values. The best agreement between calculated and experimentally obtained values was for summer months with high solar radiation intensity. The nonlinear model for calculating the output power is much better than the linear model and at the same time predicts better the total electrical energy generated by the solar module during the day. The nonlinear model for calculating the solar module efficiency predicts the efficiency higher than the STC (Standard Test Conditions) value of solar module efficiency for all conditions, while the linear model predicts the solar module efficiency very well. This paper provides a simple and efficient guideline to estimate relevant parameters of a monocrystalline silicon solar module under the moderate-continental climate conditions. - Highlights: • Linear model for solar module temperature gives accurate predictions for August. • The nonlinear model better predicts the solar module power than the linear model. • For calculating solar module power for Nis we propose the nonlinear model. • For calculating solar model efficiency for Nis we propose adoption of linear model. • The adopted models can be used for calculations throughout the year.

Wind Power Prediction Considering Nonlinear Atmospheric Disturbances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yagang Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper considers the effect of nonlinear atmospheric disturbances on wind power prediction. A Lorenz system is introduced as an atmospheric disturbance model. Three new improved wind forecasting models combined with a Lorenz comprehensive disturbance are put forward in this study. Firstly, we define the form of the Lorenz disturbance variable and the wind speed perturbation formula. Then, different artificial neural network models are used to verify the new idea and obtain better wind speed predictions. Finally we separately use the original and improved wind speed series to predict the related wind power. This proves that the corrected wind speed provides higher precision wind power predictions. This research presents a totally new direction in the wind prediction field and has profound theoretical research value and practical guiding significance.

Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

2017-11-01

Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Halo scale predictions of symmetron modified gravity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clampitt, Joseph; Jain, Bhuvnesh; Khoury, Justin, E-mail: clampitt@sas.upenn.edu, E-mail: bjain@physics.upenn.edu, E-mail: jkhoury@sas.upenn.edu [Center for Particle Cosmology and Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pennsylvania, 209 South 33rd St., Philadelphia, PA 19104 (United States)

2012-01-01

We offer predictions of symmetron modified gravity in the neighborhood of realistic dark matter halos. The predictions for the fifth force are obtained by solving the nonlinear symmetron equation of motion in the spherical NFW approximation. In addition, we compare the three major known screening mechanisms: Vainshtein, Chameleon, and Symmetron around such dark matter halos, emphasizing the significant differences between them and highlighting observational tests which exploit these differences. Finally, we demonstrate the host halo environmental screening effect (''blanket screening'') on smaller satellite halos by solving for the modified forces around a density profile which is the sum of satellite and approximate host components.

Deep Visual Attention Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wenguan; Shen, Jianbing

2018-05-01

In this work, we aim to predict human eye fixation with view-free scenes based on an end-to-end deep learning architecture. Although Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have made substantial improvement on human attention prediction, it is still needed to improve CNN based attention models by efficiently leveraging multi-scale features. Our visual attention network is proposed to capture hierarchical saliency information from deep, coarse layers with global saliency information to shallow, fine layers with local saliency response. Our model is based on a skip-layer network structure, which predicts human attention from multiple convolutional layers with various reception fields. Final saliency prediction is achieved via the cooperation of those global and local predictions. Our model is learned in a deep supervision manner, where supervision is directly fed into multi-level layers, instead of previous approaches of providing supervision only at the output layer and propagating this supervision back to earlier layers. Our model thus incorporates multi-level saliency predictions within a single network, which significantly decreases the redundancy of previous approaches of learning multiple network streams with different input scales. Extensive experimental analysis on various challenging benchmark datasets demonstrate our method yields state-of-the-art performance with competitive inference time.

Can parenting practices predict externalizing behavior problems among children with hearing impairment?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María J. Pino

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Objective: To identify possible differences in the level of externalizing behavior problems among children with and without hearing impairment and determine whether any relationship exists between this type of problem and parenting practices. Methods: The Behavior Assessment System for Children was used to evaluate externalizing variables in a sample of 118 boys and girls divided into two matched groups: 59 with hearing disorders and 59 normal-hearing controls. Results: Significant between-group differences were found in hyperactivity, behavioral problems, and externalizing problems, but not in aggression. Significant differences were also found in various aspects of parenting styles. A model for predicting externalizing behavior problems was constructed, achieving a predicted explained variance of 50%. Conclusion: Significant differences do exist between adaptation levels in children with and without hearing impairment. Parenting style also plays an important role.

Predicting individual differences in decision-making process from signature movement styles: an illustrative study of leaders

OpenAIRE

Connors, Brenda L.; Rende, Richard; Colton, Timothy J.

2013-01-01

There has been a surge of interest in examining the utility of methods for capturing individual differences in decision-making style. We illustrate the potential offered by Movement Pattern Analysis (MPA), an observational methodology that has been used in business and by the US Department of Defense to record body movements that provide predictive insight into individual differences in decision-making motivations and actions. Twelve military officers participated in an intensive 2-h intervie...

Individual Differences in the Resistance to Social Change and Acceptance of Inequality Predict System Legitimacy Differently Depending on the Social Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Reyna, Christine

2017-01-01

Abstract We propose that individual differences in the resistance to social change and the acceptance of inequality can have divergent effects on legitimacy depending on the context. This possibility was tested in a sample of 27 European countries (N = 144 367) and across four experiments (total N = 475). Individual differences in the resistance to social change were related to higher levels of perceived legitimacy no matter the level of inequality of the society. Conversely, individual differences in the acceptance of inequality were related to higher levels of perceived legitimacy in unequal societies, but either a relationship near zero or the opposite relationship was found in more equal societies. These studies highlight the importance of distinguishing between individual differences that make up political ideology, especially when making predictions in diverse settings. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology PMID:28706346

Individual Differences in the Resistance to Social Change and Acceptance of Inequality Predict System Legitimacy Differently Depending on the Social Structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Mark J; Reyna, Christine

2017-01-01

We propose that individual differences in the resistance to social change and the acceptance of inequality can have divergent effects on legitimacy depending on the context. This possibility was tested in a sample of 27 European countries ( N  = 144 367) and across four experiments (total N  = 475). Individual differences in the resistance to social change were related to higher levels of perceived legitimacy no matter the level of inequality of the society. Conversely, individual differences in the acceptance of inequality were related to higher levels of perceived legitimacy in unequal societies, but either a relationship near zero or the opposite relationship was found in more equal societies. These studies highlight the importance of distinguishing between individual differences that make up political ideology, especially when making predictions in diverse settings. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Personality published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Association of Personality Psychology.

A Framework for Prediction of Response to HCV Therapy Using Different Data Mining Techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enas M. F. El Houby

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Hepatitis C which is a widely spread disease all over the world is a fatal liver disease caused by Hepatitis C Virus (HCV. The only approved therapy is interferon plus ribavirin. The number of responders to this treatment is low, while its cost is high and side effects are undesirable. Treatment response prediction will help in reducing the patients who suffer from the side effects and high costs without achieving recovery. The aim of this research is to develop a framework which can select the best model to predict HCV patients’ response to the treatment of HCV from clinical information. The framework contains three phases which are preprocessing phase to prepare the data for applying Data Mining (DM techniques, DM phase to apply different DM techniques, and evaluation phase to evaluate and compare the performance of the built models and select the best model as the recommended one. Different DM techniques had been applied which are associative classification, artificial neural network, and decision tree to evaluate the framework. The experimental results showed the effectiveness of the framework in selecting the best model which is the model built by associative classification using histology activity index, fibrosis stage, and alanine amino transferase.

Head losses prediction and analysis in a bulb turbine draft tube under different operating conditions using unsteady simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Wilhelm, S.; Balarac, G.; Métais, O.; Ségoufin, C.

2016-11-01

Flow prediction in a bulb turbine draft tube is conducted for two operating points using Unsteady RANS (URANS) simulations and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). The inlet boundary condition of the draft tube calculation is a rotating two dimensional velocity profile exported from a RANS guide vane- runner calculation. Numerical results are compared with experimental data in order to validate the flow field and head losses prediction. Velocity profiles prediction is improved with LES in the center of the draft tube compared to URANS results. Moreover, more complex flow structures are obtained with LES. A local analysis of the predicted flow field using the energy balance in the draft tube is then introduced in order to detect the hydrodynamic instabilities responsible for head losses in the draft tube. In particular, the production of turbulent kinetic energy next to the draft tube wall and in the central vortex structure is found to be responsible for a large part of the mean kinetic energy dissipation in the draft tube and thus for head losses. This analysis is used in order to understand the differences in head losses for different operating points. The numerical methodology could then be improved thanks to an in-depth understanding of the local flow topology.

Spatially resolved flux measurements of NOx from London suggest significantly higher emissions than predicted by inventories.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughan, Adam R; Lee, James D; Misztal, Pawel K; Metzger, Stefan; Shaw, Marvin D; Lewis, Alastair C; Purvis, Ruth M; Carslaw, David C; Goldstein, Allen H; Hewitt, C Nicholas; Davison, Brian; Beevers, Sean D; Karl, Thomas G

2016-07-18

To date, direct validation of city-wide emissions inventories for air pollutants has been difficult or impossible. However, recent technological innovations now allow direct measurement of pollutant fluxes from cities, for comparison with emissions inventories, which are themselves commonly used for prediction of current and future air quality and to help guide abatement strategies. Fluxes of NOx were measured using the eddy-covariance technique from an aircraft flying at low altitude over London. The highest fluxes were observed over central London, with lower fluxes measured in suburban areas. A footprint model was used to estimate the spatial area from which the measured emissions occurred. This allowed comparison of the flux measurements to the UK's National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) for NOx, with scaling factors used to account for the actual time of day, day of week and month of year of the measurement. The comparison suggests significant underestimation of NOx emissions in London by the NAEI, mainly due to its under-representation of real world road traffic emissions. A comparison was also carried out with an enhanced version of the inventory using real world driving emission factors and road measurement data taken from the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI). The measurement to inventory agreement was substantially improved using the enhanced version, showing the importance of fully accounting for road traffic, which is the dominant NOx emission source in London. In central London there was still an underestimation by the inventory of 30-40% compared with flux measurements, suggesting significant improvements are still required in the NOx emissions inventory.

Applied predictive control

CERN Document Server

Sunan, Huang; Heng, Lee Tong

2002-01-01

The presence of considerable time delays in the dynamics of many industrial processes, leading to difficult problems in the associated closed-loop control systems, is a well-recognized phenomenon. The performance achievable in conventional feedback control systems can be significantly degraded if an industrial process has a relatively large time delay compared with the dominant time constant. Under these circumstances, advanced predictive control is necessary to improve the performance of the control system significantly. The book is a focused treatment of the subject matter, including the fundamentals and some state-of-the-art developments in the field of predictive control. Three main schemes for advanced predictive control are addressed in this book: • Smith Predictive Control; • Generalised Predictive Control; • a form of predictive control based on Finite Spectrum Assignment. A substantial part of the book addresses application issues in predictive control, providing several interesting case studie...

Differential maps, difference maps, interpolated maps, and long term prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talman, R.

1988-06-01

Mapping techniques may be thought to be attractive for the long term prediction of motion in accelerators, especially because a simple map can approximately represent an arbitrarily complicated lattice. The intention of this paper is to develop prejudices as to the validity of such methods by applying them to a simple, exactly solveable, example. It is shown that a numerical interpolation map, such as can be generated in the accelerator tracking program TEAPOT, predicts the evolution more accurately than an analytically derived differential map of the same order. Even so, in the presence of ''appreciable'' nonlinearity, it is shown to be impractical to achieve ''accurate'' prediction beyond some hundreds of cycles of oscillation. This suggests that the value of nonlinear maps is restricted to the parameterization of only the ''leading'' deviation from linearity. 41 refs., 6 figs

Differing Air Traffic Controller Responses to Similar Trajectory Prediction Errors

Science.gov (United States)

Mercer, Joey; Hunt-Espinosa, Sarah; Bienert, Nancy; Laraway, Sean

2016-01-01

A Human-In-The-Loop simulation was conducted in January of 2013 in the Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASA's Ames Research Center. The simulation airspace included two en route sectors feeding the northwest corner of Atlanta's Terminal Radar Approach Control. The focus of this paper is on how uncertainties in the study's trajectory predictions impacted the controllers ability to perform their duties. Of particular interest is how the controllers interacted with the delay information displayed in the meter list and data block while managing the arrival flows. Due to wind forecasts with 30-knot over-predictions and 30-knot under-predictions, delay value computations included errors of similar magnitude, albeit in opposite directions. However, when performing their duties in the presence of these errors, did the controllers issue clearances of similar magnitude, albeit in opposite directions?

The predictive value of leucocyte progression for one-week mortality on acutely admitted medical patients to the emergency department

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brabrand, Mikkel; Soltau, Matilde Røgilds

2018-01-01

female. Using logistic regression, we found significantly lower one-week mortality with falling leucocyte count progression, even when controlling for confounders. A decreasing leucocyte count had a sensitivity for one-week mortality of 65%, specificity of 62%, positive predictive value of 4......%, and negative predictive value of 99%. Difference in admission to the intensive care unit was non-significant between the three groups. Difference in length of stay was significant, but with one day difference, the clinical significance is questionable. CONCLUSION: Leucocyte count progression is not sensitive...... enough to predict one-week mortality, nor specific enough to discount it. It is important for physicians to be aware of this to avoid faulty assessments based on imprecise assumptions....

Potential predictability of a Colombian river flow

Science.gov (United States)

Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

2017-04-01

In this study the predictability of an important Colombian river (Cauca) has been analysed based on the use of climatic variables as potential predictors. Cauca River is considered one of the most important rivers of Colombia because its basin supports important productive activities related with the agriculture, such as the production of coffee or sugar. Potential relationships between the Cauca River seasonal streamflow anomalies and different climatic variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation (Pt), temperature over land (Tm) and soil water (Sw) have been analysed for the period 1949-2009. For this end, moving correlation analysis of 30 years have been carried out for lags from one to four seasons for the global SST, and from one to two seasons for South America Pt, Tm and Sw. Also, the stability of the significant correlations have been also studied, identifying the regions used as potential predictors of streamflow. Finally, in order to establish a prediction scheme based on the previous stable correlations, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied on the potential predictor regions has been carried out in order to obtain a representative time series for each predictor field. Significant and stable correlations between the seasonal streamflow and the tropical Pacific SST (El Niño region) are found for lags from one to four (one-year) season. Additionally, some regions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans also show significant and stable correlations at different lags, highlighting the importance that exerts the Atlantic SST on the hydrology of Colombia. Also significant and stable correlations are found with the Pt, Tm and Sw for some regions over South America, at lags of one and two seasons. The prediction of Cauca seasonal streamflow based on this scheme shows an acceptable skill and represents a relative improvement compared with the predictability obtained using the teleconnection indices associated with El Niño. Keywords

Broca's region and Visual Word Form Area activation differ during a predictive Stroop task

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wallentin, Mikkel; Gravholt, Claus Højbjerg; Skakkebæk, Anne

2015-01-01

displayed in green or red (incongruent vs congruent colors). One of the colors, however, was presented three times as often as the other, making it possible to study both congruency and frequency effects independently. Auditory stimuli saying “GREEN” or “RED” had the same distribution, making it possible...... to study frequency effects across modalities. We found significant behavioral effects of both incongruency and frequency. A significant effect (p effect of frequency was observed and no interaction. Conjoined effects of incongruency...... and frequency were found in parietal regions as well as in the Visual Word Form Area (VWFA). No interaction between perceptual modality and frequency was found in VWFA suggesting that the region is not strictly visual. These findings speak against a strong version of the prediction error processing hypothesis...

CXCR4 expression varies significantly among different subtypes of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) and its low expression or hypermethylation might predict favorable overall survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Xinlong; Shang, Feng; Zhu, Weidong; Lin, Qingtang

2017-09-01

CXCR4 is an oncogene in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) but the mechanism of its dysregulation and its prognostic value in GBM have not been fully understood. Bioinformatic analysis was performed by using R2 and the UCSC Xena browser based on data from GSE16011 in GEO datasets and in GBM cohort in TCGA database (TCGA-GBM). Kaplan Meier curves of overall survival (OS) were generated to assess the association between CXCR4 expression/methylation and OS in patients with GBM. GBM patients with high CXCR4 expression had significantly worse 5 and 10 yrs OS (p GBM subtypes, there was an inverse relationship between overall DNA methylation and CXCR4 expression. CXCR4 expression was significantly lower in CpG island methylation phenotype (CIMP) group than in non CIMP group. Log rank test results showed that patients with high CXCR4 methylation (first tertile) had significantly better 5 yrs OS (p = 0.038). CXCR4 expression is regulated by DNA methylation in GBM and its low expression or hypermethylation might indicate favorable OS in GBM patients.

Validity of predictive equations for basal metabolic rate in Japanese adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Miyake, Rieko; Tanaka, Shigeho; Ohkawara, Kazunori; Ishikawa-Takata, Kazuko; Hikihara, Yuki; Taguri, Emiko; Kayashita, Jun; Tabata, Izumi

2011-01-01

Many predictive equations for basal metabolic rate (BMR) based on anthropometric measurements, age, and sex have been developed, mainly for healthy Caucasians. However, it has been reported that many of these equations, used widely, overestimate BMR not only for Asians, but also for Caucasians. The present study examined the accuracy of several predictive equations for BMR in Japanese subjects. In 365 healthy Japanese male and female subjects, aged 18 to 79 y, BMR was measured in the post-absorptive state using a mask and Douglas bag. Six predictive equations were examined. Total error was used as an index of the accuracy of each equation's prediction. Predicted BMR values by Dietary Reference Intakes for Japanese (Japan-DRI), Adjusted Dietary Reference Intakes for Japanese (Adjusted-DRI), and Ganpule equations were not significantly different from the measured BMR in either sex. On the other hand, Harris-Benedict, Schofield, and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/World Health Organization/United Nations University equations were significantly higher than the measured BMR in both sexes. The prediction error by Japan-DRI, Adjusted-DRI, and Harris-Benedict equations was significantly correlated with body weight in both sexes. Total error using the Ganpule equation was low in both males and females (125 and 99 kcal/d, respectively). In addition, total error using the Adjusted-DRI equation was low in females (95 kcal/d). Thus, the Ganpule equation was the most accurate in predicting BMR in our healthy Japanese subjects, because the difference between the predicted and measured BMR was relatively small, and body weight had no effect on the prediction error.

Prognosis of non-significant coronary atherosclerotic disease detected by coronary artery tomography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barros, Marcio Vinicius Lins; Siqueira, Bruna Pinto; Guimaraes, Carolina Camargos Braichi; Cruz, David Filipe Silva; Guimaraes, Leiziane Assuncao Alves; Lima, Maicom Marcio Perigolo, E-mail: marciovlbarros@gmail.com [Faculdade de Saude e Ecologia Humana, Vespasiano, MG (Brazil); Nunes, Maria do Carmo Pereira [Universidade de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Faculdade de Medicina; Siqueira, Maria Helena Albernaz [Hospital Materdei, Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2015-07-15

Introduction: Although studies have shown high diagnostic accuracy of coronary tomography (CT) in detecting coronary artery disease (CAD), data on the prognostic value of this method in patients with no significant coronary obstruction are limited. Objective: To evaluate the value of CT in predicting adverse events in patients with suspected CAD and no significant coronary obstruction. Methods: We prospectively evaluated 440 patients between January 2008 and July 2013 by MDCT, diagnosed with no significant obstruction or no atherosclerotic coronary obstruction with an average follow-up of 33 months. The outcomes evaluated were: cardiac death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina associated with hospitalization or coronary artery bypass grafting. Results: Of the 440 patients studied, 295 (67%) were men with mean age 55.9 ± 12.0 years. Non-significant obstruction was found in 152 (35%) of the patients and there were 49 (11%) outcomes. In the multivariate analysis using the Cox regression model, the predictors of clinical outcomes were non-significant obstruction on CT (hazard ratio 3.51; 95% CI 1.73 - 7.8; p <0.01), age and hypertension. Non-significant obstruction on CT was associated with adverse clinical outcomes and survival analysis showed a significant difference (log-rank 24.6; p <0.01) in predicting these outcomes. Conclusion: The detection of non-significant atherosclerotic obstruction by CT was associated with the presence of adverse events in patients with suspected CAD, which may prove useful in the risk stratification of these patients. (author)

Mixing-model Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in Hydrodynamic Predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Bigelow, Josiah; Silva, Humberto; Truman, C. Randall; Vorobieff, Peter

2017-11-01

Amagat and Dalton mixing-models were studied to compare their thermodynamic prediction of shock states. Numerical simulations with the Sandia National Laboratories shock hydrodynamic code CTH modeled University of New Mexico (UNM) shock tube laboratory experiments shocking a 1:1 molar mixture of helium (He) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) . Five input parameters were varied for sensitivity analysis: driver section pressure, driver section density, test section pressure, test section density, and mixture ratio (mole fraction). We show via incremental Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) analysis that significant differences exist between Amagat and Dalton mixing-model predictions. The differences observed in predicted shock speeds, temperatures, and pressures grow more pronounced with higher shock speeds. Supported by NNSA Grant DE-0002913.

Renal and cardiovascular risk predictive value of two different microalbuminuria screening methods in patients with hypertension with/without diabetes in Portugal.

Science.gov (United States)

Polónia, J; Carvalho, D; Nazaré, J; Martins, L; da Silva, P M; Aguiar, C; Manso, M C; Carqueja, T

2016-11-01

MicRoAlbuminuria sCreening survEy (RACE) was a multicentre, observational, cross-sectional study conducted in primary health-care settings of Portugal. Here, we present a post-hoc analysis from the RACE study, assessing the renal and cardiovascular (CV) risk predictive value of two different microalbuminuria (MA) screening methods, nephelometry with 24-h urine (MA-24 h) and Micral test with occasional urine (MicralA) in patients with hypertension (HTN) with/without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Out of 3065 patients, 1173 (38.3%) were in the HTN group without T2DM (HTN) and 1892 (61.7%) in the HTN group with T2DM (HTN+T2DM). The overall prevalence of MA was 50.6% determined by MicralA and 22.1% with MA-24 h. Urinary albumin excretion data obtained by both techniques correlated significantly (r s =0.586; Pvalue of 41% and negative predictive value of 97%. With both methods, the presence of MA was independently associated with a higher risk (1.5- to 2.9-fold) of CV and renal organ damage in both HTN and HTN+T2DM groups. MicralA, due to its high sensitivity and negative predictive value, can be considered as a valid and reliable method for MA screening in patients with HTN with/without T2DM.

Evaluation of different machine learning models for predicting and mapping the susceptibility of gully erosion

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Rahmati, Omid; Tahmasebipour, Nasser; Haghizadeh, Ali; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

2017-12-01

Gully erosion constitutes a serious problem for land degradation in a wide range of environments. The main objective of this research was to compare the performance of seven state-of-the-art machine learning models (SVM with four kernel types, BP-ANN, RF, and BRT) to model the occurrence of gully erosion in the Kashkan-Poldokhtar Watershed, Iran. In the first step, a gully inventory map consisting of 65 gully polygons was prepared through field surveys. Three different sample data sets (S1, S2, and S3), including both positive and negative cells (70% for training and 30% for validation), were randomly prepared to evaluate the robustness of the models. To model the gully erosion susceptibility, 12 geo-environmental factors were selected as predictors. Finally, the goodness-of-fit and prediction skill of the models were evaluated by different criteria, including efficiency percent, kappa coefficient, and the area under the ROC curves (AUC). In terms of accuracy, the RF, RBF-SVM, BRT, and P-SVM models performed excellently both in the degree of fitting and in predictive performance (AUC values well above 0.9), which resulted in accurate predictions. Therefore, these models can be used in other gully erosion studies, as they are capable of rapidly producing accurate and robust gully erosion susceptibility maps (GESMs) for decision-making and soil and water management practices. Furthermore, it was found that performance of RF and RBF-SVM for modelling gully erosion occurrence is quite stable when the learning and validation samples are changed.

Predicting fragmentation sizing profiles for different blasting patterns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheikh, A.M.; Chung, S.H.

1987-01-01

This paper evaluates the efficiency of blasting in a large scale underground heap leaching operation. The prediction model is based on the dynamic tensile breaking strength of rock formation, the detonation characteristics of the explosives and the drill hole pattern. The modelling includes crack pattern development and fragmentation computation fitted by the Rosin-Rammler distribution equation

The macrophage activation marker sCD163 combined with markers of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) score predicts clinically significant portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandahl, T D; McGrail, R; Møller, H J

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive identification of significant portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis is needed in hepatology practice. AIM: To investigate whether the combination of sCD163 as a hepatic inflammation marker and the fibrosis markers of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis score (ELF) can...... predict portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We measured sCD163 and the ELF components (hyaluronic acid, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 and procollagen-III aminopeptide) in two separate cohorts of cirrhosis patients that underwent hepatic vein catheterisation. To test...... the predictive accuracy we developed a CD163-fibrosis portal hypertension score in an estimation cohort (n = 80) and validated the score in an independent cohort (n = 80). A HVPG ≥10 mmHg was considered clinically significant. RESULTS: Both sCD163 and the ELF components increased in a stepwise manner...

Significant differences in parameters of glucose metabolism in children of hypertensive and normotensive parents.

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Gryko, Anna; Głowińska-Olszewska, Barbara; Płudowska, Katarzyna; Smithson, W Henry; Owłasiuk, Anna; Żelazowska-Rutkowska, Beata; Wojtkielewicz, Katarzyna; Milewski, Robert; Chlabicz, Sławomir

2017-01-01

In the recent years, alterations in the carbohydrate metabolism, including insulin resistance, are considered as risk factors in the development of hypertension and its complications in young age. Hypertension is associated with significant cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The onset of pathology responsible for the development of hypertension, as well as levels of biomarkers specific for early stages of atherosclerosis are poorly understood. To compare a group of children whose parents have a history of hypertension (study group) with a group of children with normotensive parents (reference group), with consideration of typical risk factors for atherosclerosis, parameters of lipid and carbohydrate metabolism, anthropometric data and new biomarkers of early cardiovascular disease (hsCRP, adiponectin, sICAM-1). The study population consists of 84 children. Of these, 40 children (mean age 13.6±2.7 years) had a parental history of hypertension, and 44 aged 13.1±3.7 yrs were children of normotensive parents. Anthropometric measurements were taken, and measurements of blood pressure, lipid profile, glucose and insulin levels were carried out. The insulin resistance index (HOMA IR) was calculated. Levels of hsCRP, soluble cell adhesion molecules (sICAM) and adiponectin were measured. There were no statistically significant differences in anthropometric parameters (body mass, SDS BMI, skin folds) between groups. Values of systolic blood pressure were statistically significantly higher in the study group (Me 108 vs. 100 mmHg, p= 0.031), as were glycaemia (Me 80 vs. 67 mg/dl pchildren of hypertensive parents) (Me 1.68 vs. 0.80 mmol/l × mU/l, p=0.007). Lower adiponectin levels (Me 13959.45 vs. 16822 ng/ml, p=0.020) were found in children with a family history of hypertension. No significant differences were found in the levels of sICAM, hsCRP, and parameters of lipid metabolism. Family history of hypertension is correlated with higher values of systolic blood

Comparison of equations for predicting energy expenditure from accelerometer counts in children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nilsson, A; Brage, S; Riddoch, C

2008-01-01

calorimeter-based (CAL) equation (mixture of activities). Predicted physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) was the main outcome variable. In comparison with DLW-predicted PAEE, both laboratory-derived equations significantly (PPAEE by 17% and 83%, respectively, when based on a 24-h...... prediction, while the TM equation significantly (PPAEE by 46%, when based on awake time only. In contrast, the CAL equation agreed better with the DLW equation under the awake time assumption. Predicted PAEE differ substantially between equations, depending on time-frame assumptions......, and interpretations of average levels of PAEE in children from available equations should be made with caution. Further development of equations applicable to free-living scenarios is needed....

Same admissions tools, different outcomes: a critical perspective on predictive validity in three undergraduate medical schools.

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Daniel; Friedman, Tim; Pearce, Jacob

2013-12-27

Admission to medical school is one of the most highly competitive entry points in higher education. Considerable investment is made by universities to develop selection processes that aim to identify the most appropriate candidates for their medical programs. This paper explores data from three undergraduate medical schools to offer a critical perspective of predictive validity in medical admissions. This study examined 650 undergraduate medical students from three Australian universities as they progressed through the initial years of medical school (accounting for approximately 25 per cent of all commencing undergraduate medical students in Australia in 2006 and 2007). Admissions criteria (aptitude test score based on UMAT, school result and interview score) were correlated with GPA over four years of study. Standard regression of each of the three admissions variables on GPA, for each institution at each year level was also conducted. Overall, the data found positive correlations between performance in medical school, school achievement and UMAT, but not interview. However, there were substantial differences between schools, across year levels, and within sections of UMAT exposed. Despite this, each admission variable was shown to add towards explaining course performance, net of other variables. The findings suggest the strength of multiple admissions tools in predicting outcomes of medical students. However, they also highlight the large differences in outcomes achieved by different schools, thus emphasising the pitfalls of generalising results from predictive validity studies without recognising the diverse ways in which they are designed and the variation in the institutional contexts in which they are administered. The assumption that high-positive correlations are desirable (or even expected) in these studies is also problematised.

First-Trimester Serum Acylcarnitine Levels to Predict Preeclampsia: A Metabolomics Approach

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Maria P. H. Koster

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To expand the search for preeclampsia (PE metabolomics biomarkers through the analysis of acylcarnitines in first-trimester maternal serum. Methods. This was a nested case-control study using serum from pregnant women, drawn between 8 and 14 weeks of gestational age. Metabolites were measured using an UPLC-MS/MS based method. Concentrations were compared between controls (n=500 and early-onset- (EO- PE (n=68 or late-onset- (LO- PE (n=99 women. Metabolites with a false discovery rate <10% for both EO-PE and LO-PE were selected and added to prediction models based on maternal characteristics (MC, mean arterial pressure (MAP, and previously established biomarkers (PAPPA, PLGF, and taurine. Results. Twelve metabolites were significantly different between EO-PE women and controls, with effect levels between −18% and 29%. For LO-PE, 11 metabolites were significantly different with effect sizes between −8% and 24%. Nine metabolites were significantly different for both comparisons. The best prediction model for EO-PE consisted of MC, MAP, PAPPA, PLGF, taurine, and stearoylcarnitine (AUC = 0.784. The best prediction model for LO-PE consisted of MC, MAP, PAPPA, PLGF, and stearoylcarnitine (AUC = 0.700. Conclusion. This study identified stearoylcarnitine as a novel metabolomics biomarker for EO-PE and LO-PE. Nevertheless, metabolomics-based assays for predicting PE are not yet suitable for clinical implementation.

Significant difference in p53 and p21 protein immunoreactivity in HPV 16 positive and HPV negative breast carcinomas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hennig, E.M.; Norwegian Radium Hospital, Oslo; Kvinnsland, S.; Holm, R.; Nesland, J.M.

1999-01-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 has previously been found in 19/41 breast carcinomas (46%) in women with a history of HPV 16 positive CIN III lesions. There was no significant difference in distribution of histological subtypes, mean or median tumour diameter or number of regional lymph node metastases in the HPV positive and HPV negative breast carcinoma groups. P53, p21 and c-erbB-2 proteins were analyzed by immunohistochemistry in the HPV 16 positive and HPV negative breast carcinomas. There was a significant difference in p53 and p21 protein immunoreactivity between HPV 16 positive and HPV negative breast carcinomas (p=0.0091 and p=0.0040), with a significant less detectable p53 and p21 protein immunoreactivity in the HPV 16 positive cases. There was also a significant difference in the coexpression of p53/p21 between the HPV 16 positive and HPV 16 negative breast carcinomas (p=0.002). No significant difference in immunostaining for c-erbB-2 protein in the two groups was found (p=0.15), or for the coexpression of p53/c-erbB-2 (p=0.19). The significantly lower expression of p53 and p21 proteins in HPV 16 positive than in HPV 16 negative breast carcinomas supports the hypothesis of inactivation and degradation of wild-type p53 proteins by HPV 16 E6 and that p53 mutation is not necessary for transformation in the HPV 16 positive cases. (orig.)

Seed metabolomic study reveals significant metabolite variations and correlations among different soybean cultivars.

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Lin, Hong; Rao, Jun; Shi, Jianxin; Hu, Chaoyang; Cheng, Fang; Wilson, Zoe A; Zhang, Dabing; Quan, Sheng

2014-09-01

Soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] is one of the world's major crops, and soybean seeds are a rich and important resource for proteins and oils. While "omics" studies, such as genomics, transcriptomics, and proteomics, have been widely applied in soybean molecular research, fewer metabolomic studies have been conducted for large-scale detection of low molecular weight metabolites, especially in soybean seeds. In this study, we investigated the seed metabolomes of 29 common soybean cultivars through combined gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. One hundred sixty-nine named metabolites were identified and subsequently used to construct a metabolic network of mature soybean seed. Among the 169 detected metabolites, 104 were found to be significantly variable in their levels across tested cultivars. Metabolite markers that could be used to distinguish genetically related soybean cultivars were also identified, and metabolite-metabolite correlation analysis revealed some significant associations within the same or among different metabolite groups. Findings from this work may potentially provide the basis for further studies on both soybean seed metabolism and metabolic engineering to improve soybean seed quality and yield. © 2014 Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Seed metabolomic study reveals significant metabolite variations and correlations among different soybean cultivars

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Hong Lin; Jun Rao; Jianxin Shi; Chaoyang Hu; Fang Cheng; Zoe AWilson; Dabing Zhang; Sheng Quan

2014-01-01

Soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] is one of the world’s major crops, and soybean seeds are a rich and important resource for proteins and oils. While “omics”studies, such as genomics, transcriptomics, and proteomics, have been widely applied in soybean molecular research, fewer metabolomic studies have been conducted for large-scale detection of low molecular weight metabolites, especial y in soybean seeds. In this study, we investigated the seed metabolomes of 29 common soybean cultivars through combined gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. One hundred sixty-nine named metabolites were identified and subsequently used to construct a metabolic network of mature soybean seed. Among the 169 detected metabolites, 104 were found to be significantly variable in their levels across tested cultivars. Metabolite markers that could be used to distinguish genetical y related soybean cultivars were also identified, and metabolite-metabolite correlation analysis revealed some significant associations within the same or among different metabolite groups. Findings from this work may potentially provide the basis for further studies on both soybean seed metabolism and metabolic engineering to improve soybean seed quality and yield.

No significant effect of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) found on simple motor reaction time comparing 15 different simulation protocols.

Science.gov (United States)

Horvath, Jared Cooney; Carter, Olivia; Forte, Jason D

2016-10-01

Research exploring the behavioral impact of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) over M1 has produced homogenous results. The most common explanations to address this homogeneity concerns the differential impact of varied tDCS parameters (such as stimulation intensity or electrode montage). To explore this, we systematically examined the effects of 15 different tDCS protocols on a well-elucidated neurobehavioral system: simple visual motor reaction time (smRT). For the initial phase of this study, 150 healthy participants were randomly assigned to one of 5 experimental groups (2mA anodal, 2mA cathodal, 1mA anodal, 1mA cathodal, or sham) across 3 different conditions (orbitofrontal, bilateral, or extracephalic reference electrode location). The active electrode was always placed over M1 and tDCS lasted for 20min. Starting ~5min prior to stimulation and running continuously for ~30min, participants were repeatedly presented with a visual cue centered on a computer monitor and asked to press a response button as quickly as possible at stimulus onset (stimuli number: 100 pre-, 400 during-, and 100-post stimulation - interstimulus interval: 1-3s). Ex-gaussian distribution curves, miss, and error rates were determined for each normalized batch of 100 RTs and compared using a two-way ANOVA. As the largest group differences were seen with 2mA anodal (compared to sham) stimulation using an orbitofrontal montage, an additional 60 healthy participants were recruited to further test for significance in this condition. No significant impact of tDCS was seen on any parameter of smRT distribution, error rate, or miss rate, regardless of polarity, stimulation intensity, electrode montage, or stimulation-to-task relationship. Our results suggest that tDCS over M1 might not have a predictable or reliable effect on short duration smRT. Our results raise interesting questions regarding the mechanisms by which tDCS might modulate more complex motor behaviors. Additional

BDDCS Class Prediction for New Molecular Entities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Broccatelli, Fabio; Cruciani, Gabriele; Benet, Leslie Z.

2012-01-01

M) predicts high versus low intestinal permeability rate, and vice versa, at least when uptake transporters or paracellular transport is not involved. We recently published a collection of over 900 marketed drugs classified for BDDCS. We suggest that a reliable model for predicting BDDCS class, integrated...... chemistry compounds (over 30,000 chemicals). Based on this application, we suggest that solubility, and not permeability, is the major difference between NMEs and drugs. We anticipate that the forecast of BDDCS categories in early drug discovery may lead to a significant R&D cost reduction....... descriptors calculated or derived from the VolSurf+ software. For each molecule, a probability of BDDCS class membership was given, based on predicted EoM, FDA solubility (FDAS) and their confidence scores. The accuracy in predicting FDAS was 78% in training and 77% in validation, while for EoM prediction...

Combining clinical variables to optimize prediction of antidepressant treatment outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Iniesta, Raquel; Malki, Karim; Maier, Wolfgang; Rietschel, Marcella; Mors, Ole; Hauser, Joanna; Henigsberg, Neven; Dernovsek, Mojca Zvezdana; Souery, Daniel; Stahl, Daniel; Dobson, Richard; Aitchison, Katherine J; Farmer, Anne; Lewis, Cathryn M; McGuffin, Peter; Uher, Rudolf

2016-07-01

The outcome of treatment with antidepressants varies markedly across people with the same diagnosis. A clinically significant prediction of outcomes could spare the frustration of trial and error approach and improve the outcomes of major depressive disorder through individualized treatment selection. It is likely that a combination of multiple predictors is needed to achieve such prediction. We used elastic net regularized regression to optimize prediction of symptom improvement and remission during treatment with escitalopram or nortriptyline and to identify contributing predictors from a range of demographic and clinical variables in 793 adults with major depressive disorder. A combination of demographic and clinical variables, with strong contributions from symptoms of depressed mood, reduced interest, decreased activity, indecisiveness, pessimism and anxiety significantly predicted treatment outcomes, explaining 5-10% of variance in symptom improvement with escitalopram. Similar combinations of variables predicted remission with area under the curve 0.72, explaining approximately 15% of variance (pseudo R(2)) in who achieves remission, with strong contributions from body mass index, appetite, interest-activity symptom dimension and anxious-somatizing depression subtype. Escitalopram-specific outcome prediction was more accurate than generic outcome prediction, and reached effect sizes that were near or above a previously established benchmark for clinical significance. Outcome prediction on the nortriptyline arm did not significantly differ from chance. These results suggest that easily obtained demographic and clinical variables can predict therapeutic response to escitalopram with clinically meaningful accuracy, suggesting a potential for individualized prescription of this antidepressant drug. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Gender differences in binaural speech-evoked auditory brainstem response: are they clinically significant?

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Jalaei, Bahram; Azmi, Mohd Hafiz Afifi Mohd; Zakaria, Mohd Normani

2018-05-17

Binaurally evoked auditory evoked potentials have good diagnostic values when testing subjects with central auditory deficits. The literature on speech-evoked auditory brainstem response evoked by binaural stimulation is in fact limited. Gender disparities in speech-evoked auditory brainstem response results have been consistently noted but the magnitude of gender difference has not been reported. The present study aimed to compare the magnitude of gender difference in speech-evoked auditory brainstem response results between monaural and binaural stimulations. A total of 34 healthy Asian adults aged 19-30 years participated in this comparative study. Eighteen of them were females (mean age=23.6±2.3 years) and the remaining sixteen were males (mean age=22.0±2.3 years). For each subject, speech-evoked auditory brainstem response was recorded with the synthesized syllable /da/ presented monaurally and binaurally. While latencies were not affected (p>0.05), the binaural stimulation produced statistically higher speech-evoked auditory brainstem response amplitudes than the monaural stimulation (p0.80), substantive gender differences were noted in most of speech-evoked auditory brainstem response peaks for both stimulation modes. The magnitude of gender difference between the two stimulation modes revealed some distinct patterns. Based on these clinically significant results, gender-specific normative data are highly recommended when using speech-evoked auditory brainstem response for clinical and future applications. The preliminary normative data provided in the present study can serve as the reference for future studies on this test among Asian adults. Copyright © 2018 Associação Brasileira de Otorrinolaringologia e Cirurgia Cérvico-Facial. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Parent socialization effects in different cultures: significance of directive parenting.

Science.gov (United States)

Sorkhabi, Nadia

2012-06-01

In this article, the controversy of divergent findings in research on parental socialization effects in different cultures is addressed. Three explanations intended to address divergent findings of socialization effects in different cultures, as advanced by researchers who emphasize cultural differences, are discussed. These include cultural differences in socialization values and goals of parents, parental emotional and cognitive characteristics associated with parenting styles, and adolescents' interpretations or evaluations of their parents' parenting styles. The empirical evidence for and against each of these arguments is examined and an alternative paradigm for understanding and empirical study of developmental outcomes associated with parenting styles in different cultures is suggested. Baumrind's directive parenting style is presented as an alternative to the authoritarian parenting style in understanding the positive developmental effects associated with "strict" parenting in cultures said to have a collectivist orientation. Directions for research on the three explanations are mentioned.

Study of prognostic significance of antenatal ultrasonography and renin angiotensin system activation in predicting disease severity in posterior urethral valves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Divya Bhadoo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Aims: Study on prognostic significance of antenatal ultrasonography and renin angiotensin system activation in predicting disease severity in posterior urethral valves. Materials and Methods: Antenatally diagnosed hydronephrosis patients were included. Postnatally, they were divided into two groups, posterior urethral valve (PUV and non-PUV. The studied parameters were: Gestational age at detection, surgical intervention, ultrasound findings, cord blood and follow up plasma renin activity (PRA values, vesico-ureteric reflux (VUR, renal scars, and glomerular filtration rate (GFR. Results: A total of 25 patients were included, 10 PUV and 15 non-PUV. All infants with PUV underwent primary valve incision. GFR was less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 body surface area in 4 patients at last follow-up. Keyhole sign, oligoamnios, absent bladder cycling, and cortical cysts were not consistent findings on antenatal ultrasound in PUV. Cord blood PRA was significantly higher (P < 0.0001 in PUV compared to non-PUV patients. Gestational age at detection of hydronephrosis, cortical cysts, bladder wall thickness, and amniotic fluid index were not significantly correlated with GFR while PRA could differentiate between poor and better prognosis cases with PUV. Conclusions: Ultrasound was neither uniformly useful in diagnosing PUV antenatally, nor differentiating it from cases with non-PUV hydronephrosis. In congenital hydronephrosis, cord blood PRA was significantly higher in cases with PUV compared to non-PUV cases and fell significantly after valve ablation. Cord blood PRA could distinguish between poor and better prognosis cases with PUV.

Generalized Predictive Control and Neural Generalized Predictive Control

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Sadhana CHIDRAWAR

2008-12-01

Full Text Available As Model Predictive Control (MPC relies on the predictive Control using a multilayer feed forward network as the plants linear model is presented. In using Newton-Raphson as the optimization algorithm, the number of iterations needed for convergence is significantly reduced from other techniques. This paper presents a detailed derivation of the Generalized Predictive Control and Neural Generalized Predictive Control with Newton-Raphson as minimization algorithm. Taking three separate systems, performances of the system has been tested. Simulation results show the effect of neural network on Generalized Predictive Control. The performance comparison of this three system configurations has been given in terms of ISE and IAE.

Human papillomavirus detection with genotyping by the cobas and Aptima assays: Significant differences in HPV 16 detection?

Science.gov (United States)

Chorny, Joseph A; Frye, Teresa C; Fisher, Beth L; Remmers, Carol L

2018-03-23

The primary high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) assays in the United States are the cobas (Roche) and the Aptima (Hologic). The cobas assay detects hrHPV by DNA analysis while the Aptima detects messenger RNA (mRNA) oncogenic transcripts. As the Aptima assay identifies oncogenic expression, it should have a lower rate of hrHPV and genotype detection. The Kaiser Permanente Regional Reference Laboratory in Denver, Colorado changed its hrHPV assay from the cobas to the Aptima assay. The rates of hrHPV detection and genotyping were compared over successive six-month periods. The overall hrHPV detection rates by the two platforms were similar (9.5% versus 9.1%) and not statistically different. For genotyping, the HPV 16 rate by the cobas was 1.6% and by the Aptima it was 1.1%. These differences were statistically different with the Aptima detecting nearly one-third less HPV 16 infections. With the HPV 18 and HPV 18/45, there was a slightly higher detection rate of HPV 18/45 by the Aptima platform (0.5% versus 0.9%) and this was statistically significant. While HPV 16 represents a low percentage of hrHPV infections, it was detected significantly less by the Aptima assay compared to the cobas assay. This has been previously reported, although not highlighted. Given the test methodologies, one would expect the Aptima to detect less HPV 16. This difference appears to be mainly due to a significantly increased number of non-oncogenic HPV 16 infections detected by the cobas test as there were no differences in HPV 16 detection rates in the high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions indicating that the two tests have similar sensitivities for oncogenic HPV 16. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pesticide volatilization from soil and plant surfaces: Measurements at different scales versus model predictions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wolters, A.

2003-07-01

Simulation of pesticide volatilization from plant and soil surfaces as an integral component of pesticide fate models is of utmost importance, especially as part of the PEC (predicted environmental concentrations) models used in the registration procedures for pesticides. Experimentally determined volatilization rates at different scales were compared to model predictions to improve recent approaches included in European registration models. To assess the influence of crucial factors affecting volatilization under well-defined conditions, a laboratory chamber was set-up and validated. Aerodynamic conditions were adjusted to fulfill the requirements of the German guideline on assessing pesticide volatilization for registration purposes. At the semi-field scale, volatilization rates were determined in a wind-tunnel study after soil surface application of pesticides to gleyic cambisol. The following descending order of cumulative volatilization was observed: chlorpyrifos > parathion-methyl > terbuthylazine > fenpropimorph. Parameterization of the models PEARL (pesticide emission assessment at regional and local scales) and PELMO (pesticide leaching model) was performed to mirror the experimental boundary conditions. (orig.)

Comparison of the significance of the RENAL, PADUA, and C-index nephrometric scales for the prediction of the complexity of laparoscopic nephrectomy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu. G. Alyaev

2018-01-01

time, extent of intraoperative blood loss and possibility of development after complications (p = 0.049; 0.028; 0.046. None of indices were significant for multivariant analysis of prognosis the duration of laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. The indices  of the RENAL (p = 0.032 and C-index (p = 0.040 nephrometry score systems were significant for univariate analysis of prognosis the duration of the laparoscopic partial nephrectomy.Conclusion. The usage of RENAL, PADUA, C-index nephrometry score systems is useful for the prediction of warm ischaemic time, extent  of blood loss, duration of operative measure and possibility of rate of postoperative complications at laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. According to our data the index of RENAL nephrometry scoring system has the highest predictive value. Applications of 3D modelling for counting nephrometry indices in preoperative period makes the process of counting balls easier on all three nephrometry score systems.

Verbal working memory predicts co-speech gesture: evidence from individual differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillespie, Maureen; James, Ariel N; Federmeier, Kara D; Watson, Duane G

2014-08-01

Gesture facilitates language production, but there is debate surrounding its exact role. It has been argued that gestures lighten the load on verbal working memory (VWM; Goldin-Meadow, Nusbaum, Kelly, & Wagner, 2001), but gestures have also been argued to aid in lexical retrieval (Krauss, 1998). In the current study, 50 speakers completed an individual differences battery that included measures of VWM and lexical retrieval. To elicit gesture, each speaker described short cartoon clips immediately after viewing. Measures of lexical retrieval did not predict spontaneous gesture rates, but lower VWM was associated with higher gesture rates, suggesting that gestures can facilitate language production by supporting VWM when resources are taxed. These data also suggest that individual variability in the propensity to gesture is partly linked to cognitive capacities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Individual Differences in Diurnal Preference and Time-of-Exercise Interact to Predict Exercise Frequency.

Science.gov (United States)

Hisler, Garrett C; Phillips, Alison L; Krizan, Zlatan

2017-06-01

Diurnal preference (and chronotype more generally) has been implicated in exercise behavior, but this relation has not been examined using objective exercise measurements nor have potential psychosocial mediators been examined. Furthermore, time-of-day often moderates diurnal preference's influence on outcomes, and it is unknown whether time-of-exercise may influence the relation between chronotype and exercise frequency. The current study examined whether individual differences in diurnal preference ("morningness-eveningness") predict unique variance in exercise frequency and if commonly studied psychosocial variables mediate this relation (i.e., behavioral intentions, internal exercise control, external exercise control, and conscientiousness). Moreover, the study sought to test whether individuals' typical time-of-exercise moderated the impact of diurnal preference on exercise frequency. One hundred twelve healthy adults (mean age = 25.4; SD = 11.6 years) completed baseline demographics and then wore Fitbit Zips® for 4 weeks to objectively measure exercise frequency and typical time-of-exercise. At the end of the study, participants also self-reported recent exercise. Diurnal preference predicted both self-reported exercise and Fitbit-recorded exercise frequency. When evaluating mediators, only conscientiousness emerged as a partial mediator of the relation between diurnal preference and self-reported exercise. In addition, time-of-exercise moderated diurnal preference's relation to both self-reported exercise and Fitbit-recorded exercise frequency such that diurnal preference predicted higher exercise frequency when exercise occurred at a time that was congruent with one's diurnal preference. Based on these findings, diurnal preference is valuable, above and beyond other psychological constructs, in predicting exercise frequency and represents an important variable to incorporate into interventions seeking to increase exercise.

Hormone levels predict individual differences in reproductive success in a passerine bird.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, Jenny Q; Sharp, Peter J; Dawson, Alistair; Quetting, Michael; Hau, Michaela

2011-08-22

Hormones mediate major physiological and behavioural components of the reproductive phenotype of individuals. To understand basic evolutionary processes in the hormonal regulation of reproductive traits, we need to know whether, and during which reproductive phases, individual variation in hormone concentrations relates to fitness in natural populations. We related circulating concentrations of prolactin and corticosterone to parental behaviour and reproductive success during both the pre-breeding and the chick-rearing stages in both individuals of pairs of free-living house sparrows, Passer domesticus. Prolactin and baseline corticosterone concentrations in pre-breeding females, and prolactin concentrations in pre-breeding males, predicted total number of fledglings. When the strong effect of lay date on total fledgling number was corrected for, only pre-breeding baseline corticosterone, but not prolactin, was negatively correlated with the reproductive success of females. During the breeding season, nestling provisioning rates of both sexes were negatively correlated with stress-induced corticosterone levels. Lastly, individuals of both sexes with low baseline corticosterone before and high baseline corticosterone during breeding raised the most offspring, suggesting that either the plasticity of this trait contributes to reproductive success or that high parental effort leads to increased hormone concentrations. Thus hormone concentrations both before and during breeding, as well as their seasonal dynamics, predict reproductive success, suggesting that individual variation in absolute concentrations and in plasticity is functionally significant, and, if heritable, may be a target of selection.

Differences in axial segment reorientation during standing turns predict multiple falls in older adults

OpenAIRE

Wright, Rachel L.; Peters, Derek M.; Robinson, Paul D.; Sitch, Alice J.; Watt, Thomas N.; Hollands, Mark A.

2012-01-01

Author's version of an article in the journal: Gait and Posture. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gaitpost.2012.05.013 Background: The assessment of standing turning performance is proposed to predict fall risk in older adults. This study investigated differences in segmental coordination during a 360° standing turn task between older community-dwelling fallers and non-fallers. Methods: Thirty-five older adults age mean (SD) of 71 (5.4) years performed 360°...

Predicting bottlenose dolphin distribution along Liguria coast (northwestern Mediterranean Sea) through different modeling techniques and indirect predictors.

Science.gov (United States)

Marini, C; Fossa, F; Paoli, C; Bellingeri, M; Gnone, G; Vassallo, P

2015-03-01

Habitat modeling is an important tool to investigate the quality of the habitat for a species within a certain area, to predict species distribution and to understand the ecological processes behind it. Many species have been investigated by means of habitat modeling techniques mainly to address effective management and protection policies and cetaceans play an important role in this context. The bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) has been investigated with habitat modeling techniques since 1997. The objectives of this work were to predict the distribution of bottlenose dolphin in a coastal area through the use of static morphological features and to compare the prediction performances of three different modeling techniques: Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Random Forest (RF). Four static variables were tested: depth, bottom slope, distance from 100 m bathymetric contour and distance from coast. RF revealed itself both the most accurate and the most precise modeling technique with very high distribution probabilities predicted in presence cells (90.4% of mean predicted probabilities) and with 66.7% of presence cells with a predicted probability comprised between 90% and 100%. The bottlenose distribution obtained with RF allowed the identification of specific areas with particularly high presence probability along the coastal zone; the recognition of these core areas may be the starting point to develop effective management practices to improve T. truncatus protection. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual differences in attributional style but not in interoceptive sensitivity, predict subjective estimates of action intention.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tegan ePenton

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The debate on the existence of free will is on-going. Seminal findings by Libet et al. demonstrate that subjective awareness of a voluntary urge to act (the W-judgement occurs before action execution. Libet’s paradigm requires participants to perform voluntary actions while watching a clock hand rotate. On response trials, participants make a retrospective judgement related to awareness of their urge to act. This research investigates the relationship between individual differences in performance on the Libet task and self-awareness. We examined the relationship between W-judgement, Attributional Style (AS; a measure of perceived control and interoceptive sensitivity (IS; awareness of stimuli originating from one’s body; e.g. heartbeats. Thirty participants completed the AS questionnaire (ASQ, a heartbeat estimation task (IS, and the Libet paradigm. The ASQ score significantly predicted performance on the Libet task, while IS did not - more negative ASQ scores indicated larger latency between W-judgement and action execution. A significant correlation was also observed between ASQ score and IS. This is the first research to report a relationship between W-judgement and AS and should inform the future use of electroencephalography to investigate the relationship between AS, W-judgement and RP onset. Our findings raise questions surrounding the importance of one’s perceived control in determining the point of conscious intention to act. Furthermore, we demonstrate possible negative implications associated with a longer period between conscious awareness and action execution.

Effects of historical and predictive information on ability of transport pilot to predict an alert

Science.gov (United States)

Trujillo, Anna C.

1994-01-01

In the aviation community, the early detection of the development of a possible subsystem problem during a flight is potentially useful for increasing the safety of the flight. Commercial airlines are currently using twin-engine aircraft for extended transport operations over water, and the early detection of a possible problem might increase the flight crew's options for safely landing the aircraft. One method for decreasing the severity of a developing problem is to predict the behavior of the problem so that appropriate corrective actions can be taken. To investigate the pilots' ability to predict long-term events, a computer workstation experiment was conducted in which 18 airline pilots predicted the alert time (the time to an alert) using 3 different dial displays and 3 different parameter behavior complexity levels. The three dial displays were as follows: standard (resembling current aircraft round dial presentations); history (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec in the past); and predictive (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec into the future). The time profiles describing the behavior of the parameter consisted of constant rate-of-change profiles, decelerating profiles, and accelerating-then-decelerating profiles. Although the pilots indicated that they preferred the near term predictive dial, the objective data did not support its use. The objective data did show that the time profiles had the most significant effect on performance in estimating the time to an alert.

Scratch deformation behavior of thermoplastic materials with significant differences in ductility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hadal, R.S.; Misra, R.D.K.

2005-01-01

A comparative study of the scratch deformation behavior of neat ethylene-propylene copolymers and polypropylene with significant differences in ductility is made by combining morphological examination by electron microscopy and scratch deformation parameters by atomic force microscopy. Also, the deformation behavior during scratch tests is examined for their respective long and short chain polymers. The ability of polymeric materials to resist scratch deformation under identical scratch test conditions follows the sequence (from maximum resistance to minimum resistance): short chain polypropylene > long chain polypropylene > short chain ethylene-propylene > long chain ethylene-propylene. The scratch tracks in ethylene-propylene copolymers were characterized by a consecutive parabolic pattern containing voids, while polypropylenes exhibited zig-zag periodic scratch tracks. The greater plastic flow in ethylene-propylene copolymers is encouraged by the high ductility of the copolymer and the ability to nucleate microvoids. The quasi-static periodic scratch tracks are a consequence of sequential accumulation and release of tangential force and represents the stick-slip process. The susceptibility to scratch deformation is discussed in terms of modulus, elastic recovery, scratch hardness, and entanglement density of polymeric materials. A higher effective entanglement density and percentage crystallinity of short chain polymers is helpful in enhancing scratch resistance as compared to their respective long chain polymers

Predictive systems ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

2013-11-22

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

DNA entropy reveals a significant difference in complexity between housekeeping and tissue specific gene promoters.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, David; Finan, Chris; Newport, Melanie J; Jones, Susan

2015-10-01

The complexity of DNA can be quantified using estimates of entropy. Variation in DNA complexity is expected between the promoters of genes with different transcriptional mechanisms; namely housekeeping (HK) and tissue specific (TS). The former are transcribed constitutively to maintain general cellular functions, and the latter are transcribed in restricted tissue and cells types for specific molecular events. It is known that promoter features in the human genome are related to tissue specificity, but this has been difficult to quantify on a genomic scale. If entropy effectively quantifies DNA complexity, calculating the entropies of HK and TS gene promoters as profiles may reveal significant differences. Entropy profiles were calculated for a total dataset of 12,003 human gene promoters and for 501 housekeeping (HK) and 587 tissue specific (TS) human gene promoters. The mean profiles show the TS promoters have a significantly lower entropy (pentropy distributions for the 3 datasets show that promoter entropies could be used to identify novel HK genes. Functional features comprise DNA sequence patterns that are non-random and hence they have lower entropies. The lower entropy of TS gene promoters can be explained by a higher density of positive and negative regulatory elements, required for genes with complex spatial and temporary expression. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surprised at all the entropy: hippocampal, caudate and midbrain contributions to learning from prediction errors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne-Marike Schiffer

Full Text Available Influential concepts in neuroscientific research cast the brain a predictive machine that revises its predictions when they are violated by sensory input. This relates to the predictive coding account of perception, but also to learning. Learning from prediction errors has been suggested for take place in the hippocampal memory system as well as in the basal ganglia. The present fMRI study used an action-observation paradigm to investigate the contributions of the hippocampus, caudate nucleus and midbrain dopaminergic system to different types of learning: learning in the absence of prediction errors, learning from prediction errors, and responding to the accumulation of prediction errors in unpredictable stimulus configurations. We conducted analyses of the regions of interests' BOLD response towards these different types of learning, implementing a bootstrapping procedure to correct for false positives. We found both, caudate nucleus and the hippocampus to be activated by perceptual prediction errors. The hippocampal responses seemed to relate to the associative mismatch between a stored representation and current sensory input. Moreover, its response was significantly influenced by the average information, or Shannon entropy of the stimulus material. In accordance with earlier results, the habenula was activated by perceptual prediction errors. Lastly, we found that the substantia nigra was activated by the novelty of sensory input. In sum, we established that the midbrain dopaminergic system, the hippocampus, and the caudate nucleus were to different degrees significantly involved in the three different types of learning: acquisition of new information, learning from prediction errors and responding to unpredictable stimulus developments. We relate learning from perceptual prediction errors to the concept of predictive coding and related information theoretic accounts.

Surprised at all the entropy: hippocampal, caudate and midbrain contributions to learning from prediction errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Schiffer, Anne-Marike; Ahlheim, Christiane; Wurm, Moritz F; Schubotz, Ricarda I

2012-01-01

Influential concepts in neuroscientific research cast the brain a predictive machine that revises its predictions when they are violated by sensory input. This relates to the predictive coding account of perception, but also to learning. Learning from prediction errors has been suggested for take place in the hippocampal memory system as well as in the basal ganglia. The present fMRI study used an action-observation paradigm to investigate the contributions of the hippocampus, caudate nucleus and midbrain dopaminergic system to different types of learning: learning in the absence of prediction errors, learning from prediction errors, and responding to the accumulation of prediction errors in unpredictable stimulus configurations. We conducted analyses of the regions of interests' BOLD response towards these different types of learning, implementing a bootstrapping procedure to correct for false positives. We found both, caudate nucleus and the hippocampus to be activated by perceptual prediction errors. The hippocampal responses seemed to relate to the associative mismatch between a stored representation and current sensory input. Moreover, its response was significantly influenced by the average information, or Shannon entropy of the stimulus material. In accordance with earlier results, the habenula was activated by perceptual prediction errors. Lastly, we found that the substantia nigra was activated by the novelty of sensory input. In sum, we established that the midbrain dopaminergic system, the hippocampus, and the caudate nucleus were to different degrees significantly involved in the three different types of learning: acquisition of new information, learning from prediction errors and responding to unpredictable stimulus developments. We relate learning from perceptual prediction errors to the concept of predictive coding and related information theoretic accounts.

Physiological stress responses predict sexual functioning and satisfaction differently in women who have and have not been sexually abused in childhood.

Science.gov (United States)

Meston, Cindy M; Lorenz, Tierney A

2013-07-01

Physiological responses to sexual stimuli may contribute to the increased rate of sexual problems seen in women with childhood sexual abuse (CSA) histories. We compared two physiological stress responses as predictors of sexual function and satisfaction, sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activation and cortisol in women with (CSA, N = 136) and without CSA histories (NSA, N = 102). In CSA survivors, cortisol response to sexual stimuli did not significantly predict sexual functioning; however, in NSA women, cortisol increases were associated with poorer sexual functioning, and decreases with higher functioning. For women with CSA histories, lower SNS activity was associated with poorer sexual functioning. For CSA survivors with low lifetime trauma, lower SNS activity was associated with higher sexual satisfaction; for women with high lifetime trauma, the reverse was true. Decreased SNS activity during sexual stimuli predicted higher sexual functioning in NSA women with low lifetime exposure to traumatic events, but lower sexual functioning in those with high exposure. Differences between women with and without CSA histories in the association between cortisol and SNS response and sexual functioning and satisfaction suggests that CSA causes disruptions in both short and long-term stress responses to sexual stimuli that perpetuate into adulthood.

Individual differences in children's working memory and writing skill.

Science.gov (United States)

Swanson, H L; Berninger, V W

1996-11-01

The purpose of this research is to address (a) whether individual differences in working memory (WM) and writing are related to a general or process-specific system, (b) whether WM tasks operate independently of phonological short-term memory (STM) on measures of writing and reading, and (c) whether working memory predicts variance in writing beyond that predicted by reading alone. The present study correlated several WM and phonological STM measures with writing and reading measures. The study showed among the memory measures that a four-factor model reflecting phonological STM, verbal WM span, executive processing, and visual-spatial WM span best fit the multivariate data set. Working memory was correlated significantly with a number of writing measures, particularly those related to text generation. WM measures contributed unique variance to writing that was independent of reading skill, and STM measures best predicted transcription processes and reading recognition, whereas WM measures best predicted text generation and reading comprehension. Both verbal and visual-spatial working memory measures predicted reading comprehension, whereas only WM measures that reflect executive processing significantly predicted writing. In general, the results suggest that individual differences in children's writing reflect a specific capacity system, whereas reading comprehension draws upon a multiple capacity system.

Meta-path based heterogeneous combat network link prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jichao; Ge, Bingfeng; Yang, Kewei; Chen, Yingwu; Tan, Yuejin

2017-09-01

The combat system-of-systems in high-tech informative warfare, composed of many interconnected combat systems of different types, can be regarded as a type of complex heterogeneous network. Link prediction for heterogeneous combat networks (HCNs) is of significant military value, as it facilitates reconfiguring combat networks to represent the complex real-world network topology as appropriate with observed information. This paper proposes a novel integrated methodology framework called HCNMP (HCN link prediction based on meta-path) to predict multiple types of links simultaneously for an HCN. More specifically, the concept of HCN meta-paths is introduced, through which the HCNMP can accumulate information by extracting different features of HCN links for all the six defined types. Next, an HCN link prediction model, based on meta-path features, is built to predict all types of links of the HCN simultaneously. Then, the solution algorithm for the HCN link prediction model is proposed, in which the prediction results are obtained by iteratively updating with the newly predicted results until the results in the HCN converge or reach a certain maximum iteration number. Finally, numerical experiments on the dataset of a real HCN are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed HCNMP, in comparison with 30 baseline methods. The results show that the performance of the HCNMP is superior to those of the baseline methods.

Prediction of the visual impact of motorways using GIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Like; Kang, Jian; Schroth, Olaf

2015-01-01

Large scale transportation projects can adversely affect the visual perception of environmental quality and require adequate visual impact assessment. In this study, we investigated the effects of the characteristics of the road project and the character of the existing landscape on the perceived visual impact of motorways, and developed a GIS-based prediction model based on the findings. An online survey using computer-visualised scenes of different motorway and landscape scenarios was carried out to obtain perception-based judgements on the visual impact. Motorway scenarios simulated included the baseline scenario without road, original motorway, motorways with timber noise barriers, transparent noise barriers and tree screen; different landscape scenarios were created by changing land cover of buildings and trees in three distance zones. The landscape content of each scene was measured in GIS. The result shows that presence of a motorway especially with the timber barrier significantly decreases the visual quality of the view. The resulted visual impact tends to be lower where it is less visually pleasant with more buildings in the view, and can be slightly reduced by the visual absorption effect of the scattered trees between the motorway and the viewpoint. Based on the survey result, eleven predictors were identified for the visual impact prediction model which was applied in GIS to generate maps of visual impact of motorways in different scenarios. The proposed prediction model can be used to achieve efficient and reliable assessment of visual impact of motorways. - Highlights: • Motorways induce significant visual impact especially with timber noise barriers. • Visual impact is negatively correlated with amount of buildings in the view. • Visual impact is positively correlated with percentage of trees in the view. • Perception-based motorway visual impact prediction model using mapped predictors • Predicted visual impacts in different scenarios are

Prediction of the visual impact of motorways using GIS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jiang, Like [School of Architecture, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom); Kang, Jian, E-mail: j.kang@sheffield.ac.uk [School of Architecture, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom); Schroth, Olaf [Department of Landscape, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN (United Kingdom)

2015-11-15

Large scale transportation projects can adversely affect the visual perception of environmental quality and require adequate visual impact assessment. In this study, we investigated the effects of the characteristics of the road project and the character of the existing landscape on the perceived visual impact of motorways, and developed a GIS-based prediction model based on the findings. An online survey using computer-visualised scenes of different motorway and landscape scenarios was carried out to obtain perception-based judgements on the visual impact. Motorway scenarios simulated included the baseline scenario without road, original motorway, motorways with timber noise barriers, transparent noise barriers and tree screen; different landscape scenarios were created by changing land cover of buildings and trees in three distance zones. The landscape content of each scene was measured in GIS. The result shows that presence of a motorway especially with the timber barrier significantly decreases the visual quality of the view. The resulted visual impact tends to be lower where it is less visually pleasant with more buildings in the view, and can be slightly reduced by the visual absorption effect of the scattered trees between the motorway and the viewpoint. Based on the survey result, eleven predictors were identified for the visual impact prediction model which was applied in GIS to generate maps of visual impact of motorways in different scenarios. The proposed prediction model can be used to achieve efficient and reliable assessment of visual impact of motorways. - Highlights: • Motorways induce significant visual impact especially with timber noise barriers. • Visual impact is negatively correlated with amount of buildings in the view. • Visual impact is positively correlated with percentage of trees in the view. • Perception-based motorway visual impact prediction model using mapped predictors • Predicted visual impacts in different scenarios are

Significant clinical differences in primary hyperparathyroidism between patients with and those without concomitant thyroid disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masatsugu, Toshihiro; Kuroki, Syoji; Tanaka, Masao

2005-01-01

We evaluated the differences in diagnosis and treatment for primary hyperparathyroidism (pHPT) in patients with and those without concomitant thyroid disease. One hundred and ten patients with pHPT underwent parathyroid localization and thyroid examination by ultrasonography (US) and sestamibi scintigraphy (MIBI). The clinical and biochemical findings, parathyroid localization, and operations performed were compared in 49 patients without thyroid disease and 61 patients with thyroid disease. Asymptomatic hypercalcemia was significantly more prevalent in patients with concomitant thyroid disease (88.5%) than in those without thyroid disease (49.0%) (P<0.01). The mean serum calcium was significantly higher and the inorganic phosphate level was significantly lower in patients without concomitant thyroid disease than in those with concomitant thyroid disease (P<0.05, P<0.01, respectively). The pathologic parathyroid gland was identified significantly more often in patients without concomitant thyroid disease than in those with concomitant thyroid disease both by US and MIBI (P<0.05). Unilateral exploration was performed more often in patients without thyroid disease than in those with thyroid disease (P<0.01). Primary hyperparathyroidism was diagnosed at an earlier stage in patients with concomitant thyroid disease. Thyroid disease concomitant with pHPT influenced parathyroid localization as well as the indication for minimally invasive parathyroidectomy. (author)

Significant profile differences among male and female adventure tourists in Pretoria, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melissa Jeanette Lötter

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Different adventure activities/experiences evolve because individuals, their motives, behaviours, and experiences differ and change over time. This notion illustrates the broad nature of adventure tourism and its links with other forms of tourism. In turn, adventure tourism companies are compelled to promote/sell an array of activities/experiences to a diverse range of markets as novel and exclusive experiences to facilitate the growth of adventure holidays (Swarbrooke et al., 2003. To assist adventure tourism companies in achieving effective marketing strategies, the study’s objective is to identify significant sociopsychological profile differences among male and female adventure tourists in Pretoria, South Africa. Furthermore, to facilitate the comparison of adventure tourists’ profiles, an equal number of respondents were male (117 and female (117, which provided a 93.6% response rate. In comparison to female respondents, male respondents prefer winter as a season to participate in hard/high-risk adventure activities when they are with or without their family, and they participate in adventure activities for travelling and socialising purposes. Whereas, female respondents predominantly regard scuba-diving, abseiling, and helicopter flights as a hard/high-risk adventure activity, although these activities are generally regarded by the overall sample as being soft/low-risk adventure activities. Furthermore, even though females’ participation in adventure activities is sponsored, they did not participate or only participated in adventure activities once over the past year due to fear/risk and/or lack of skill. This study established that there is a need to further research adventure tourists’ profiles before it could be equally accepted and interpreted.

Prediction of the metabolic cost of walking with and without loads.

Science.gov (United States)

Duggan, A; Haisman, M F

1992-04-01

Measurement of the metabolic cost of walking inconveniences subjects, and requires skilled technical support and expensive equipment. These factors have stimulated interest in predictive equations. The present study assessed existing equations. Under each of 17 combinations of gradient (0-6%) and carried load (4.1-37.4 kg), 7-12 men undertook treadmill walking at 1.67 m/s. Measured oxygen consumption and respiratory exchange ratio were used to calculate metabolic rate (MRobserved). Metabolic rate was also predicted from the equation of Pandolf et al. (1977) (MRpandolf) and, where appropriate, from another five equations relating to walking without loads. MRobserved and MRpandolf did not differ significantly (p greater than 0.05) under any combination of gradient and load. The overall mean MRobserved and MRpandolf of 609 W and 602 W, respectively, also did not differ significantly (p greater than 0.05). These variables were highly correlated (r = 0.94) with a standard deviation about the prediction error of 47 W. For level walking without loads, the mean predictions from the equations of Pandolf et al. (1977) and Cotes and Meade (1960) did not differ significantly (p greater than 0.05) from the mean MRobserved of 428 Watts, but four other equations overestimated by 17-74 W. In conclusion, the Pandolf et al. (1977) equation has given good results across the range of combinations of load and gradient tested, and the errors are considered acceptable for most practical purposes.

The significance of parenchymal changes of acute cellular rejection in predicting chronic liver graft rejection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gouw, ASH; van den Heuvel, MC; van den Berg, AP; Slooff, NJH; de Jong, KP; Poppema, S

2002-01-01

Background. Chronic rejection (CR) in liver allografts shows a rapid onset and progressive course, leading to graft failure within the first year after transplantation. Most cases are preceded by episodes of acute cellular rejection (AR), but histological features predictive for the transition

Preschool anxiety disorders predict different patterns of amygdala-prefrontal connectivity at school-age.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kimberly L H Carpenter

Full Text Available In this prospective, longitudinal study of young children, we examined whether a history of preschool generalized anxiety, separation anxiety, and/or social phobia is associated with amygdala-prefrontal dysregulation at school-age. As an exploratory analysis, we investigated whether distinct anxiety disorders differ in the patterns of this amygdala-prefrontal dysregulation.Participants were children taking part in a 5-year study of early childhood brain development and anxiety disorders. Preschool symptoms of generalized anxiety, separation anxiety, and social phobia were assessed with the Preschool Age Psychiatric Assessment (PAPA in the first wave of the study when the children were between 2 and 5 years old. The PAPA was repeated at age 6. We conducted functional MRIs when the children were 5.5 to 9.5 year old to assess neural responses to viewing of angry and fearful faces.A history of preschool social phobia predicted less school-age functional connectivity between the amygdala and the ventral prefrontal cortices to angry faces. Preschool generalized anxiety predicted less functional connectivity between the amygdala and dorsal prefrontal cortices in response to fearful faces. Finally, a history of preschool separation anxiety predicted less school-age functional connectivity between the amygdala and the ventral prefrontal cortices to angry faces and greater school-age functional connectivity between the amygdala and dorsal prefrontal cortices to angry faces.Our results suggest that there are enduring neurobiological effects associated with a history of preschool anxiety, which occur over-and-above the effect of subsequent emotional symptoms. Our results also provide preliminary evidence for the neurobiological differentiation of specific preschool anxiety disorders.

Validity of predicting left ventricular end systolic pressure changes following an acute bout of exercise.

Science.gov (United States)

Kappus, Rebecca M; Ranadive, Sushant M; Yan, Huimin; Lane, Abbi D; Cook, Marc D; Hall, Grenita; Harvey, I Shevon; Wilund, Kenneth R; Woods, Jeffrey A; Fernhall, Bo

2013-01-01

Left ventricular end systolic pressure (LV ESP) is important in assessing left ventricular performance and is usually derived from prediction equations. It is unknown whether these equations are accurate at rest or following exercise in a young, healthy population. Measured LV ESP vs. LV ESP values from the prediction equations were compared at rest, 15 min and 30 min following peak aerobic exercise in 60 participants. LV ESP was obtained by applanation tonometry at rest, 15 min post and 30 min post peak cycle exercise. Measured LV ESP was significantly lower (p<0.05) at all time points in comparison to the two calculated values. Measured LV ESP decreased significantly from rest at both the post15 and post30 time points (p<0.05) and changed differently in comparison to the calculated values (significant interaction; p<0.05). The two LV ESP equations were also significantly different from each other (p<0.05) and changed differently over time (significant interaction; p<0.05). The two commonly used prediction equations did not accurately predict either resting or post exercise LV ESP in a young, healthy population. Thus, LV ESP needs to be individually determined in young, healthy participants. Non-invasive measurement through applanation tonometry appears to allow for a more accurate determination of LV ESP. Copyright © 2012 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Significance of satellite sign and spot sign in predicting hematoma expansion in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Zhiyuan; Zheng, Jun; Ali, Hasan; Guo, Rui; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Ma, Lu; Li, Hao; You, Chao

2017-11-01

Hematoma expansion is related to poor outcome in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Recently, a non-enhanced computed tomography (CT) based finding, termed the 'satellite sign', was reported to be a novel predictor for poor outcome in spontaneous ICH. However, it is still unclear whether the presence of the satellite sign is related to hematoma expansion. Initial computed tomography angiography (CTA) was conducted within 6h after ictus. Satellite sign on non-enhanced CT and spot sign on CTA were detected by two independent reviewers. The sensitivity and specificity of both satellite sign and spot sign were calculated. Receiver-operator analysis was conducted to evaluate their predictive accuracy for hematoma expansion. This study included 153 patients. Satellite sign was detected in 58 (37.91%) patients and spot sign was detected in 38 (24.84%) patients. Among 37 patients with hematoma expansion, 22 (59.46%) had satellite sign and 23 (62.16%) had spot sign. The sensitivity and specificity of satellite sign for prediction of hematoma expansion were 59.46% and 68.97%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of spot sign were 62.16% and 87.07%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of satellite sign was 0.642 and the AUC of spot sign was 0.746. (P=0.157) CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the satellite sign is an independent predictor for hematoma expansion in spontaneous ICH. Although spot sign has the higher predictive accuracy, satellite sign is still an acceptable predictor for hematoma expansion when CTA is unavailable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gender Differences in Predicting Antisocial Behaviors: Developmental Consequences of Physical and Relational Aggression

Science.gov (United States)

McEachern, Amber D.; Snyder, James

2012-01-01

This study investigated gender differences in the relationship of early physical and relational aggression to later peer rejection and overt and covert antisocial behaviors. Significant gender differences were found indicating physically aggressive boys were more likely than girls to experience later peer rejection. Early physical aggression was…

Individual differences in executive function and central coherence predict developmental changes in theory of mind in autism.

Science.gov (United States)

Pellicano, Elizabeth

2010-03-01

There is strong evidence to suggest that individuals with autism show atypicalities in multiple cognitive domains, including theory of mind (ToM), executive function (EF), and central coherence (CC). In this study, the longitudinal relationships among these 3 aspects of cognition in autism were investigated. Thirty-seven cognitively able children with an autism spectrum condition were assessed on tests targeting ToM (false-belief prediction), EF (planning ability, cognitive flexibility, and inhibitory control), and CC (local processing) at intake and again 3 years later. Time 1 EF and CC skills were longitudinally predictive of change in children's ToM test performance, independent of age, language, nonverbal intelligence, and early ToM skills. Predictive relations in the opposite direction were not significant, and there were no developmental links between EF and CC. Rather than showing problems in ToM, EF and CC as co-occurring and independent atypicalities in autism, these findings suggest that early domain-general skills play a critical role in shaping the developmental trajectory of children's ToM.

Clinical significance of inter-arm pressure difference and ankle-brachial pressure index in patients with suspected coronary artery disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igarashi, Yuko; Chikamori, Taishiro; Tomiyama, Hirofumi; Usui, Yasuhiro; Hida, Satoshi; Tanaka, Hirokazu; Nagao, Tadashi; Yamashina, Akira

2007-01-01

Although measuring blood pressure at the bilateral brachia is common in medical practice, its clinical significance in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been fully clarified. The method of this study was to define the significance of inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference in patients with suspected CAD, and to assess the relationship between inter-arm pressure difference and CAD, simultaneous brachial and ankle blood pressure measurements and stress myocardial single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) were performed in 386 consecutive patients with suspected CAD, excluding those with previous myocardial infarction or coronary revascularization. Subclavian artery stenosis, defined as ≥15 mmHg inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference, was found in 27 patients (7%). Age (65±12 vs 65±11 years), male sex (21/27 vs 244/359), prevalence of hypertension (63% vs 56%), hypercholesterolemia (63% vs 62%), diabetes mellitus (33% vs 38%), cigarette smoking (44% vs 41%) and family history of CAD (15% vs 12%) were similar between patients with subclavian artery stenosis and those without. The incidence of decreased ankle-brachial pressure index (ABI) was higher (37% vs 12%, p=0.001), and percentage ischemic myocardium as assessed by SPECT was greater (9.0±8.5% vs 5.6±6.6%, p=0.05) in patients with subclavian artery stenosis than in those without. Furthermore, significant correlations were observed between inter-arm pressure difference and percentage ischemic myocardium (r=0.13; p=0.01), and ABI (r=-0.26, p<0.0001). Among 386 patients, 283 underwent coronary angiography, and 63% of those who had inter-arm blood pressure difference had CAD. Furthermore, 83% of those CAD patients had multi-vessel CAD, which is regarded as a high-risk subset for subsequent cardiac events. Inter-arm pressure difference is often found in patients with suspected CAD, and is associated with significant CAD and peripheral artery disease. Thus, inter

Towards an improved prediction of the free radical scavenging potency of flavonoids: the significance of double PCET mechanisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Amić, Ana; Marković, Zoran; Dimitrić Marković, Jasmina M; Stepanić, Višnja; Lučić, Bono; Amić, Dragan

2014-01-01

The 1H(+)/1e(-) and 2H(+)/2e(-) proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) processes of free radical scavenging by flavonoids were theoretically studied for aqueous and lipid environments using the PM6 and PM7 methods. The results reported here indicate that the significant contribution of the second PCET mechanism, resulting in the formation of a quinone/quinone methide, effectively discriminates the active from inactive flavonoids. The predictive potency of descriptors related to the energetics of second PCET mechanisms (the second O-H bond dissociation enthalpy (BDE2) related to hydrogen atom transfer (HAT) mechanism, and the second electron transfer enthalpy (ETE2) related to sequential proton loss electron transfer (SPLET) mechanism) are superior to the currently used indices, which are related to the first 1H(+)/1e(-) processes, and could serve as primary descriptors in development of the QSAR (quantitative structure-activity relationships) of flavonoids. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Family differences in equations for predicting biomass and leaf area in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii).

Science.gov (United States)

J.B. St. Clair

1993-01-01

Logarithmic regression equations were developed to predict component biomass and leaf area for an 18-yr-old genetic test of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco var. menziesii) based on stem diameter or cross-sectional sapwood area. Equations did not differ among open-pollinated families in slope, but intercepts...

Distinct work-related, clinical and psychological factors predict return to work following treatment in four different cancer types.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Alethea F; Hankins, Matthew; Rixon, Lorna; Eaton, Emma; Grunfeld, Elizabeth A

2013-03-01

Many factors influence return to work (RTW) following cancer treatment. However specific factors affecting RTW across different cancer types are unclear. This study examined the role of clinical, sociodemographic, work and psychological factors in RTW following treatment for breast, gynaecological, head and neck, and urological cancer. A 12-month prospective questionnaire study was conducted with 290 patients. Cox regression analyses were conducted to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for time to RTW. Between 89-94% of cancer survivors returned to work. Breast cancer survivors took the longest to return (median 30 weeks), and urology cancer survivors returned the soonest (median 5 weeks). Earlier return among breast cancer survivors was predicted by a greater sense of control over their cancer at work (HR 1.2; 95% CI: 1.09-1.37) and by full-time work (HR 2.1; CI: 1.24-3.4). Predictive of a longer return among gynaecological cancer survivors was a belief that cancer treatment may impair ability to work (HR 0.75; CI: 0.62-0.91). Among urological cancer survivors constipation was predictive of longer RTW (HR 0.99; CI: 0.97-1.00), whereas undertaking flexible working was predictive of returning sooner (HR 1.70; CI: 1.07-2.7). Head and neck cancer survivors who perceived greater negative consequences of their cancer took longer to return (HR 0.27; CI: 0.11-0.68). Those reporting better physical functioning returned sooner (HR1.04; CI: 1.01-1.08). A different profile of predictive factors emerged for the four cancer types. In addition to optimal symptom management and workplace adaptations, the findings suggest that eliciting and challenging specific cancer and treatment-related perceptions may facilitate RTW. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Defensive motivation and attention in anticipation of different types of predictable and unpredictable threat: A startle and event-related potential investigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Brady D; Hajcak, Greg

2017-08-01

Predictability is an important characteristic of threat that impacts defensive motivation and attentional engagement. Supporting research has primarily focused on actual threat (e.g., shocks), and it is unclear whether the predictability of less intense threat (e.g., unpleasant pictures) similarly affects motivation and attention. The present study utilized a within-subject design and examined defensive motivation (startle reflex and self-reported anxiety) and attention (probe N100 and P300) in anticipation of shocks and unpleasant pictures during a no, predictable, and unpredictable threat task. This study also examined the impact of predictability on the P300 to shocks and late positive potential (LPP) to unpleasant pictures. The startle reflex and self-reported anxiety were increased in anticipation of both types of threat relative to no threat. Furthermore, startle potentiation in anticipation of unpredictable threat was greater for shocks compared to unpleasant pictures, but there was no difference for predictable threat. The probe N100 was enhanced in anticipation of unpredictable threat relative to predictable threat and no threat, and the probe P300 was suppressed in anticipation of predictable and unpredictable threat relative to no threat. These effects did not differ between the shock and unpleasant picture trials. Finally, the P300 and early LPP component were increased in response to unpredictable relative to predictable shocks and unpleasant pictures, respectively. The present study suggests that the unpredictability of unpleasant pictures increases defensive motivation, but to a lesser degree relative to actual threat. Moreover, unpredictability enhances attentional engagement in anticipation of, and in reaction to, both types of threat. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Evaluation of secretion prediction highlights differing approaches needed for oomycete and fungal effectors

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Jana eSperschneider

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The steadily increasing number of sequenced fungal and oomycete genomes has enabled detailed studies of how these eukaryotic microbes infect plants and cause devastating losses in food crops. During infection, fungal and oomycete pathogens secrete effector molecules which manipulate host plant cell processes to the pathogen’s advantage. Proteinaceous effectors are synthesised intracellularly and must be externalised to interact with host cells. Computational prediction of secreted proteins from genomic sequences is an important technique to narrow down the candidate effector repertoire for subsequent experimental validation. In this study, we benchmark secretion prediction tools on experimentally validated fungal and oomycete effectors. We observe that for a set of fungal SwissProt protein sequences, SignalP 4 and the neural network predictors of SignalP 3 (D-score and SignalP 2 perform best. For effector prediction in particular, the use of a sensitive method can be desirable to obtain the most complete candidate effector set. We show that the neural network predictors of SignalP 2 and 3, as well as TargetP were the most sensitive tools for fungal effector secretion prediction, whereas the hidden Markov model predictors of SignalP 2 and 3 were the most sensitive tools for oomycete effectors. Thus, previous versions of SignalP retain value for oomycete effector prediction, as the current version, SignalP 4, was unable to reliably predict the signal peptide of the oomycete Crinkler effectors in the test set. Our assessment of subcellular localisation predictors shows that cytoplasmic effectors are often predicted as not extracellular. This limits the reliability of secretion predictions that depend on these tools. We present our assessment with a view to informing future pathogenomics studies and suggest revised pipelines for secretion prediction to obtain optimal effector predictions in fungi and oomycetes.

Predicting discharge destination after stroke: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Mees, Margot; Klein, Jelle; Yperzeele, Laetitia; Vanacker, Peter; Cras, Patrick

2016-03-01

Different factors have been studied and proven to significantly influence discharge destination of acute stroke patients after hospitalization. Few reviews have been published combining the results of these studies. Therefore we aim to present an overview of the studies conducted regarding these predicting factors. Through conducting a systematic review we aimed to study the different predictive factors influencing discharge destination of acute stroke patients after hospitalization. Nineteen articles were selected in accordance with the research question and inclusion criteria. The factors found were, according to their significance in the articles, subcategorized in age, gender, functional status, cognitive status, race and ethnicity, co morbidities, education, stroke characteristics, social and living situation. The main factors significantly associated with other than home discharge were functional dependence/comorbidities, neurocognitive dysfunction and previous living circumstances/marital status. A medium or large infarct is associated with institutionalization. The stroke volume is not associated with home discharge. The effect of other factors remain controversial and results differ between studies. These include: age, gender, race, affected hemisphere and availability of a caregiver not living at home. Factors such as education, hospital complications, geographic location and FIM progression during hospitalization have not been studied sufficiently. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phenolic Compositions and Antioxidant Activities Differ Significantly among Sorghum Grains with Different Applications

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Shuyu Shen

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Sorghum grains with different applications had different phenolic profiles, which were corresponded to various antioxidant capacities. In this study, total phenolic, proanthocyanidins and flavonoids contents, as well as contents of individual phenolic compounds from sorghum grains with various applications were determined, and their antioxidant capacities were evaluated. Total phenolic contents (TPC and total proanthocyanidins contents (TPAC showed strong correlation with antioxidant activities (r > 0.95, p < 0.01. Hongyingzi (S-1, one of the brewing sorghums, showed the highest level of TPC and TPAC, while white grain sorghum (S-8 had the lowest. Except for black grain sorghum (S-7, that contained the highest contents of ferulic acid, brewing sorghum grains contained the higher contents of the most individual phenolic compounds, especially the variety S-1. The correlation among individual phenolic compounds and antioxidant activities indicated that the free forms of protocatechuic acid (r = 0.982 of FRAPassay, p < 0.01 and taxifolin (r = 0.826 of FRAP assay, p < 0.01 may be the main functional compounds. These results indicate that brewing sorghum grains can also be utilized as effective materials for functional foods.

Emotional Intelligence predicts individual differences in social exchange reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Reis, Deidre L; Brackett, Marc A; Shamosh, Noah A; Kiehl, Kent A; Salovey, Peter; Gray, Jeremy R

2007-04-15

When assessed with performance measures, Emotional Intelligence (EI) correlates positively with the quality of social relationships. However, the bases of such correlations are not understood in terms of cognitive and neural information processing mechanisms. We investigated whether a performance measure of EI is related to reasoning about social situations (specifically social exchange reasoning) using versions of the Wason Card Selection Task. In an fMRI study (N=16), higher EI predicted hemodynamic responses during social reasoning in the left frontal polar and left anterior temporal brain regions, even when controlling for responses on a very closely matched task (precautionary reasoning). In a larger behavioral study (N=48), higher EI predicted faster social exchange reasoning, after controlling for precautionary reasoning. The results are the first to directly suggest that EI is mediated in part by mechanisms supporting social reasoning and validate a new approach to investigating EI in terms of more basic information processing mechanisms.

Significance of non-classical damping in seismic qualification of equipment and piping

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu; Bose, Mrinal K.

2017-06-15

Highlights: • Damping in coupled building-piping or building-equipment systems is nonlclassical. • Significance of nonclassical damping is illustrated. • Classical damping assumption can over predict or under predict response. • Significance of nonclassical damping increases for very light secondary systems. • Composite modal damping is another form of classical damping. - Abstract: This paper presents a discussion on the significance of non-classical damping in coupled primary-secondary systems such as building-equipment or building-piping. Closed-form expressions are used to illustrate that the effect of non-classical damping is significant in systems with tuned or nearly tuned uncoupled modes when the mass-interaction is sufficiently small. Further, simple primary-secondary systems are used to illustrate that composite modal damping is another form of classical damping for which the transformed damping matrix, obtained after pre- and post-multiplication of the damping matrix with the modal matrix, contains only diagonal terms. Both the composite and the classical damping give almost identical results that can be much different from the corresponding results for non-classical damping. Finally, it is shown that consideration of classical damping (ignoring the off-diagonal terms) can give excessively conservative results in nearly tuned primary-secondary systems. For perfectly tuned primary-secondary systems, however, classical damping can give responses that are much lower than what they should be.

Explanation of Significant Differences Between Models used to Assess Groundwater Impacts for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste and Greater-Than-Class C-Like Waste Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0375-D) and the

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Annette Schafer; Arthur S. Rood; A. Jeffrey Sondrup

2011-08-01

Models have been used to assess the groundwater impacts to support the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C (GTCC) Low-Level Radioactive Waste and GTCC-Like Waste (DOE-EIS 2011) for a facility sited at the Idaho National Laboratory and the Environmental Assessment for the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Project (INL 2011). Groundwater impacts are primarily a function of (1) location determining the geologic and hydrologic setting, (2) disposal facility configuration, and (3) radionuclide source, including waste form and release from the waste form. In reviewing the assumptions made between the model parameters for the two different groundwater impacts assessments, significant differences were identified. This report presents the two sets of model assumptions and discusses their origins and implications for resulting dose predictions. Given more similar model parameters, predicted doses would be commensurate.

A Wavelet Analysis-Based Dynamic Prediction Algorithm to Network Traffic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Fan-Bo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Network traffic is a significantly important parameter for network traffic engineering, while it holds highly dynamic nature in the network. Accordingly, it is difficult and impossible to directly predict traffic amount of end-to-end flows. This paper proposes a new prediction algorithm to network traffic using the wavelet analysis. Firstly, network traffic is converted into the time-frequency domain to capture time-frequency feature of network traffic. Secondly, in different frequency components, we model network traffic in the time-frequency domain. Finally, we build the prediction model about network traffic. At the same time, the corresponding prediction algorithm is presented to attain network traffic prediction. Simulation results indicates that our approach is promising.

Is Time Predictability Quantifiable?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schoeberl, Martin

2012-01-01

Computer architects and researchers in the realtime domain start to investigate processors and architectures optimized for real-time systems. Optimized for real-time systems means time predictable, i.e., architectures where it is possible to statically derive a tight bound of the worst......-case execution time. To compare different approaches we would like to quantify time predictability. That means we need to measure time predictability. In this paper we discuss the different approaches for these measurements and conclude that time predictability is practically not quantifiable. We can only...... compare the worst-case execution time bounds of different architectures....

Differing effects of attention in single-units and populations are well predicted by heterogeneous tuning and the normalization model of attention.

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Hara, Yuko; Pestilli, Franco; Gardner, Justin L

2014-01-01

Single-unit measurements have reported many different effects of attention on contrast-response (e.g., contrast-gain, response-gain, additive-offset dependent on visibility), while functional imaging measurements have more uniformly reported increases in response across all contrasts (additive-offset). The normalization model of attention elegantly predicts the diversity of effects of attention reported in single-units well-tuned to the stimulus, but what predictions does it make for more realistic populations of neurons with heterogeneous tuning? Are predictions in accordance with population-scale measurements? We used functional imaging data from humans to determine a realistic ratio of attention-field to stimulus-drive size (a key parameter for the model) and predicted effects of attention in a population of model neurons with heterogeneous tuning. We found that within the population, neurons well-tuned to the stimulus showed a response-gain effect, while less-well-tuned neurons showed a contrast-gain effect. Averaged across the population, these disparate effects of attention gave rise to additive-offsets in contrast-response, similar to reports in human functional imaging as well as population averages of single-units. Differences in predictions for single-units and populations were observed across a wide range of model parameters (ratios of attention-field to stimulus-drive size and the amount of baseline response modifiable by attention), offering an explanation for disparity in physiological reports. Thus, by accounting for heterogeneity in tuning of realistic neuronal populations, the normalization model of attention can not only predict responses of well-tuned neurons, but also the activity of large populations of neurons. More generally, computational models can unify physiological findings across different scales of measurement, and make links to behavior, but only if factors such as heterogeneous tuning within a population are properly accounted for.

The presence, predictive utility, and clinical significance of body dysmorphic symptoms in women with eating disorders

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Both eating disorders (EDs) and body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) are disorders of body image. This study aimed to assess the presence, predictive utility, and impact of clinical features commonly associated with BDD in women with EDs. Methods Participants recruited from two non-clinical cohorts of women, symptomatic and asymptomatic of EDs, completed a survey on ED (EDE-Q) and BDD (BDDE-SR) psychopathology, psychological distress (K-10), and quality of life (SF-12). Results A strong correlation was observed between the total BDDE-SR and the global EDE-Q scores (r = 0.79, p 0.05) measured appearance checking, reassurance-seeking, camouflaging, comparison-making, and social avoidance. In addition to these behaviors, inspection of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) revealed that BDDE-SR items measuring preoccupation and dissatisfaction with appearance were most predictive of ED cases (Se and Sp > 0.60). Higher total BDDE-SR scores were associated with greater distress on the K-10 and poorer quality of life on the SF-12 (all p < 0.01). Conclusions Clinical features central to the model of BDD are common in, predictive of, and associated with impairment in women with EDs. Practice implications are that these features be included in the assessment and treatment of EDs. PMID:24999401

Detailed comparative study regarding different formulae of predicting the iron losses in a machine excited by non-sinusoidal supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Kharashi, Eyhab

2014-01-01

Variable-speed drives in any machine provide an accurate control and high-energy efficiency. More and more often machines are excited by non-sinusoidal voltages. Predicting the amount of iron losses in non-sinusoidal excitation is important. The paper aims to achieve accurate efficiency estimation by presenting a new modified calculation method to predict the iron losses. In a switched reluctance motor, the iron losses can't be ignored, it has considered value. This paper presents conventional and modified Steinmetz formulae for the estimation of the iron losses. The conventional Steinmetz formula consists of three terms: hysteresis, eddy current and anomalous losses. The equations of hysteresis and eddy current losses depend mainly on the value of the peak flux density. The reason to modify the Steinmetz formula is to avoid the need of knowing the peak flux density and the anomalous losses in accurate figures. The paper also explains and clarifies the methods of using both the conventional as well as the modified Steinmetz formulae in accurate calculation of the iron losses in different sections of the magnetic circuit. For both formulae, a comparison is made between the distributions of the iron losses in different parts of the magnetic circuit and the efficiencies. - Highlights: • The paper aims to achieve accurate efficiency estimation. • The predicted iron loss by the conventional Steinmetz formula is inaccurate. • The modified Steinmetz formula is more accurate because it includes the minor loops losses caused by each flux density. • The paper compared the predicted losses obtained by the two different formals to stand on the degree of accuracy

A correlational and predictive study of creativity and personality of college students.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanz de Acedo Baquedano, María Teresa; Sanz de Acedo Lizarraga, María Luisa

2012-11-01

The goals of this study were to examine the relationship between creativity and personality, to identify what personality variables better predict creativity, and to determine whether significant differences exist among them in relation to gender. The research was conducted with a sample of 87 students at the Universidad Pública de Navarra, Spain. We administered the Creative Intelligence Test (CREA), which provides a cognitive measure for creativity and the Situational Personality Questionnaire (SPQ), which is composed of 15 personality features. Positive and significant correlations between creativity and independence, cognitive control, and tolerance personality scales were found. Negative and significant correlations between creativity and anxious, dominant, and aggressive personalities were also found. Moreover, four personality variables that positively predicted creativity (efficacy, independence, cognitive control, and integrity-honesty) and another four that negatively predicted creativity (emotional stability, anxiety, dominance, and leadership) were identified. The results did not show significant differences in creativity and personality in relation to gender, except in self-concept and in social adjustment. In conclusion, the results from this study can potentially be used to expand the types of features that support creative personalities.

Validity of one-repetition maximum predictive equations in men with spinal cord injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Ribeiro Neto, F; Guanais, P; Dornelas, E; Coutinho, A C B; Costa, R R G

2017-10-01

Cross-sectional study. The study aimed (a) to test the cross-validation of current one-repetition maximum (1RM) predictive equations in men with spinal cord injury (SCI); (b) to compare the current 1RM predictive equations to a newly developed equation based on the 4- to 12-repetition maximum test (4-12RM). SARAH Rehabilitation Hospital Network, Brasilia, Brazil. Forty-five men aged 28.0 years with SCI between C6 and L2 causing complete motor impairment were enrolled in the study. Volunteers were tested, in a random order, in 1RM test or 4-12RM with 2-3 interval days. Multiple regression analysis was used to generate an equation for predicting 1RM. There were no significant differences between 1RM test and the current predictive equations. ICC values were significant and were classified as excellent for all current predictive equations. The predictive equation of Lombardi presented the best Bland-Altman results (0.5 kg and 12.8 kg for mean difference and interval range around the differences, respectively). The two created equation models for 1RM demonstrated the same and a high adjusted R 2 (0.971, Ppredictive equations are accurate to assess individuals with SCI at the bench press exercise. However, the predictive equation of Lombardi presented the best associated cross-validity results. A specific 1RM prediction equation was also elaborated for individuals with SCI. The created equation should be tested in order to verify whether it presents better accuracy than the current ones.

Predicting weight status stability and change from fifth grade to eighth grade: the significant role of adolescents' social-emotional well-being.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Yiting; Gable, Sara

2013-04-01

The primary objective of this study was to predict weight status stability and change across the transition to adolescence using parent reports of child and household routines and teacher and child self-reports of social-emotional development. Data were from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K), a nationally representative sample of children who entered kindergarten during 1998-1999 and were followed through eighth grade. At fifth grade, parents reported on child and household routines and the study child and his/her primary classroom teacher reported on the child's social-emotional functioning. At fifth and eighth grade, children were directly weighed and measured at school. Nine mutually-exclusive weight trajectory groups were created to capture stability or change in weight status from fifth to eighth grade: (1) stable obese (ObeSta); (2) obese to overweight (ObePos1); (3) obese to healthy (ObePos2); (4) stable overweight (OverSta); (5) overweight to healthy (OverPos); (6) overweight to obese (OverNeg); (7) stable healthy (HelSta); (8) healthy to overweight (HelNeg1); and (9) healthy to obese (HelNeg2). Except for breakfast consumption at home, school-provided lunches, nighttime sleep duration, household and child routines did not predict stability or change in weight status. Instead, weight status trajectory across the transition to adolescence was significantly predicted by measures of social-emotional functioning at fifth grade. Assessing children's social-emotional well-being in addition to their lifestyle routines during the transition to adolescence is a noteworthy direction for adolescent obesity prevention and intervention. Copyright © 2013 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a Thermal Equilibrium Prediction Algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aviles-Ramos, Cuauhtemoc

2002-01-01

A thermal equilibrium prediction algorithm is developed and tested using a heat conduction model and data sets from calorimetric measurements. The physical model used in this study is the exact solution of a system of two partial differential equations that govern the heat conduction in the calorimeter. A multi-parameter estimation technique is developed and implemented to estimate the effective volumetric heat generation and thermal diffusivity in the calorimeter measurement chamber, and the effective thermal diffusivity of the heat flux sensor. These effective properties and the exact solution are used to predict the heat flux sensor voltage readings at thermal equilibrium. Thermal equilibrium predictions are carried out considering only 20% of the total measurement time required for thermal equilibrium. A comparison of the predicted and experimental thermal equilibrium voltages shows that the average percentage error from 330 data sets is only 0.1%. The data sets used in this study come from calorimeters of different sizes that use different kinds of heat flux sensors. Furthermore, different nuclear material matrices were assayed in the process of generating these data sets. This study shows that the integration of this algorithm into the calorimeter data acquisition software will result in an 80% reduction of measurement time. This reduction results in a significant cutback in operational costs for the calorimetric assay of nuclear materials. (authors)

Serial Diffusion Tensor Imaging In Vivo Predicts Long-Term Functional Recovery and Histopathology in Rats following Different Severities of Spinal Cord Injury

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Samir P.; Smith, Taylor D.; VanRooyen, Jenna L.; Powell, David; Cox, David H.; Sullivan, Patrick G.

2016-01-01

Abstract The current study demonstrates the feasibility of using serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in vivo to quantify temporally spinal cord injury (SCI) pathology in adult female Sprague-Dawley rats that were scanned prior to a moderate or severe upper lumbar contusion SCI. Injured rats were behaviorally tested for hind limb locomotion (Basso, Beattie, Bresnahan [BBB] scores) weekly for 4 weeks and scanned immediately after each session, ending with terminal gait analyses prior to euthanasia. As a measure of tissue integrity, fractional anisotropy (FA) values were significantly lower throughout the spinal cord in both injury cohorts at all time-points examined versus pre-injury. Moreover, FA values were significantly lower following severe versus moderate SCI at all time-points, and FA values at the injury epicenters at all time-points were significantly correlated with both spared white and gray matter volumes, as well as lesion volumes. Critically, quantified FA values at subacute (24 h) and all subsequent time-points were highly predictive of terminal behavior, reflected in significant correlations with both weekly BBB scores and terminal gait parameters. Critically, the finding that clinically relevant subacute (24 h) FA values accurately predict long-term functional recovery may obviate long-term studies to assess the efficacy of therapeutics tested experimentally or clinically. In summary, this study demonstrates a reproducible serial MRI procedure to predict the long-term impact of contusion SCI on both behavior and histopathology using subacute DTI metrics obtained in vivo to accurately predict multiple terminal outcome measures, which can be particularly valuable when comparing experimental interventions. PMID:26650623

The Prediction of Surface Tension of Ternary Mixtures at Different Temperatures Using Artificial Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Khazaei

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In this work, artificial neural network (ANN has been employed to propose a practical model for predicting the surface tension of multi-component mixtures. In order to develop a reliable model based on the ANN, a comprehensive experimental data set including 15 ternary liquid mixtures at different temperatures was employed. These systems consist of 777 data points generally containing hydrocarbon components. The ANN model has been developed as a function of temperature, critical properties, and acentric factor of the mixture according to conventional corresponding-state models. 80% of the data points were employed for training ANN and the remaining data were utilized for testing the generated model. The average absolute relative deviations (AARD% of the model for the training set, the testing set, and the total data points were obtained 1.69, 1.86, and 1.72 respectively. Comparing the results with Flory theory, Brok-Bird equation, and group contribution theory has proved the high prediction capability of the attained model.

Analyst-to-Analyst Variability in Simulation-Based Prediction

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Glickman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Romero, Vicente J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-02-01

This report describes findings from the culminating experiment of the LDRD project entitled, "Analyst-to-Analyst Variability in Simulation-Based Prediction". For this experiment, volunteer participants solving a given test problem in engineering and statistics were interviewed at different points in their solution process. These interviews are used to trace differing solutions to differing solution processes, and differing processes to differences in reasoning, assumptions, and judgments. The issue that the experiment was designed to illuminate -- our paucity of understanding of the ways in which humans themselves have an impact on predictions derived from complex computational simulations -- is a challenging and open one. Although solution of the test problem by analyst participants in this experiment has taken much more time than originally anticipated, and is continuing past the end of this LDRD, this project has provided a rare opportunity to explore analyst-to-analyst variability in significant depth, from which we derive evidence-based insights to guide further explorations in this important area.

Improved pose and affinity predictions using different protocols tailored on the basis of data availability

Science.gov (United States)

Prathipati, Philip; Nagao, Chioko; Ahmad, Shandar; Mizuguchi, Kenji

2016-09-01

The D3R 2015 grand drug design challenge provided a set of blinded challenges for evaluating the applicability of our protocols for pose and affinity prediction. In the present study, we report the application of two different strategies for the two D3R protein targets HSP90 and MAP4K4. HSP90 is a well-studied target system with numerous co-crystal structures and SAR data. Furthermore the D3R HSP90 test compounds showed high structural similarity to existing HSP90 inhibitors in BindingDB. Thus, we adopted an integrated docking and scoring approach involving a combination of both pharmacophoric and heavy atom similarity alignments, local minimization and quantitative structure activity relationships modeling, resulting in the reasonable prediction of pose [with the root mean square deviation (RMSD) values of 1.75 Å for mean pose 1, 1.417 Å for the mean best pose and 1.85 Å for the mean all poses] and affinity (ROC AUC = 0.702 at 7.5 pIC50 cut-off and R = 0.45 for 180 compounds). The second protein, MAP4K4, represents a novel system with limited SAR and co-crystal structure data and little structural similarity of the D3R MAP4K4 test compounds to known MAP4K4 ligands. For this system, we implemented an exhaustive pose and affinity prediction protocol involving docking and scoring using the PLANTS software which considers side chain flexibility together with protein-ligand fingerprints analysis assisting in pose prioritization. This protocol through fares poorly in pose prediction (with the RMSD values of 4.346 Å for mean pose 1, 4.69 Å for mean best pose and 4.75 Å for mean all poses) and produced reasonable affinity prediction (AUC = 0.728 at 7.5 pIC50 cut-off and R = 0.67 for 18 compounds, ranked 1st among 80 submissions).

Using built environment characteristics to predict walking for exercise

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Siscovick David S

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Environments conducive to walking may help people avoid sedentary lifestyles and associated diseases. Recent studies developed walkability models combining several built environment characteristics to optimally predict walking. Developing and testing such models with the same data could lead to overestimating one's ability to predict walking in an independent sample of the population. More accurate estimates of model fit can be obtained by splitting a single study population into training and validation sets (holdout approach or through developing and evaluating models in different populations. We used these two approaches to test whether built environment characteristics near the home predict walking for exercise. Study participants lived in western Washington State and were adult members of a health maintenance organization. The physical activity data used in this study were collected by telephone interview and were selected for their relevance to cardiovascular disease. In order to limit confounding by prior health conditions, the sample was restricted to participants in good self-reported health and without a documented history of cardiovascular disease. Results For 1,608 participants meeting the inclusion criteria, the mean age was 64 years, 90 percent were white, 37 percent had a college degree, and 62 percent of participants reported that they walked for exercise. Single built environment characteristics, such as residential density or connectivity, did not significantly predict walking for exercise. Regression models using multiple built environment characteristics to predict walking were not successful at predicting walking for exercise in an independent population sample. In the validation set, none of the logistic models had a C-statistic confidence interval excluding the null value of 0.5, and none of the linear models explained more than one percent of the variance in time spent walking for exercise. We did not

Development of a regional ensemble prediction method for probabilistic weather prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nohara, Daisuke; Tamura, Hidetoshi; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

2015-01-01

A regional ensemble prediction method has been developed to provide probabilistic weather prediction using a numerical weather prediction model. To obtain consistent perturbations with the synoptic weather pattern, both of initial and lateral boundary perturbations were given by differences between control and ensemble member of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s operational one-week ensemble forecast. The method provides a multiple ensemble member with a horizontal resolution of 15 km for 48-hour based on a downscaling of the JMA's operational global forecast accompanied with the perturbations. The ensemble prediction was examined in the case of heavy snow fall event in Kanto area on January 14, 2013. The results showed that the predictions represent different features of high-resolution spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation affected by intensity and location of extra-tropical cyclone in each ensemble member. Although the ensemble prediction has model bias of mean values and variances in some variables such as wind speed and solar radiation, the ensemble prediction has a potential to append a probabilistic information to a deterministic prediction. (author)

Quality changes and freezing time prediction during freezing and thawing of ginger

OpenAIRE

Singha, Poonam; Muthukumarappan, Kasiviswanathan

2015-01-01

Abstract Effects of different freezing rates and four different thawing methods on chemical composition, microstructure, and color of ginger were investigated. Computer simulation for predicting the freezing time of cylindrical ginger for two different freezing methods (slow and fast) was done using ANSYS ? Multiphysics. Different freezing rates (slow and fast) and thawing methods significantly (P?

Evaluation of different biomarkers to predict individual radiosensitivity in an inter-laboratory comparison--lessons for future studies.

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Burkhard Greve

Full Text Available Radiotherapy is a powerful cure for several types of solid tumours, but its application is often limited because of severe side effects in individual patients. With the aim to find biomarkers capable of predicting normal tissue side reactions we analysed the radiation responses of cells from individual head and neck tumour and breast cancer patients of different clinical radiosensitivity in a multicentric study. Multiple parameters of cellular radiosensitivity were analysed in coded samples of peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBLs and derived lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs from 15 clinical radio-hypersensitive tumour patients and compared to age- and sex-matched non-radiosensitive patient controls and 15 lymphoblastoid cell lines from age- and sex- matched healthy controls of the KORA study. Experimental parameters included ionizing radiation (IR-induced cell death (AnnexinV, induction and repair of DNA strand breaks (Comet assay, induction of yH2AX foci (as a result of DNA double strand breaks, and whole genome expression analyses. Considerable inter-individual differences in IR-induced DNA strand breaks and their repair and/or cell death could be detected in primary and immortalised cells with the applied assays. The group of clinically radiosensitive patients was not unequivocally distinguishable from normal responding patients nor were individual overreacting patients in the test system unambiguously identified by two different laboratories. Thus, the in vitro test systems investigated here seem not to be appropriate for a general prediction of clinical reactions during or after radiotherapy due to the experimental variability compared to the small effect of radiation sensitivity. Genome-wide expression analysis however revealed a set of 67 marker genes which were differentially induced 6 h after in vitro-irradiation in lymphocytes from radio-hypersensitive and non-radiosensitive patients. These results warrant future validation in larger

An automated decision-tree approach to predicting protein interaction hot spots.

Science.gov (United States)

Darnell, Steven J; Page, David; Mitchell, Julie C

2007-09-01

Protein-protein interactions can be altered by mutating one or more "hot spots," the subset of residues that account for most of the interface's binding free energy. The identification of hot spots requires a significant experimental effort, highlighting the practical value of hot spot predictions. We present two knowledge-based models that improve the ability to predict hot spots: K-FADE uses shape specificity features calculated by the Fast Atomic Density Evaluation (FADE) program, and K-CON uses biochemical contact features. The combined K-FADE/CON (KFC) model displays better overall predictive accuracy than computational alanine scanning (Robetta-Ala). In addition, because these methods predict different subsets of known hot spots, a large and significant increase in accuracy is achieved by combining KFC and Robetta-Ala. The KFC analysis is applied to the calmodulin (CaM)/smooth muscle myosin light chain kinase (smMLCK) interface, and to the bone morphogenetic protein-2 (BMP-2)/BMP receptor-type I (BMPR-IA) interface. The results indicate a strong correlation between KFC hot spot predictions and mutations that significantly reduce the binding affinity of the interface. 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Ultrasonic vocalizations, predictability and sensorimotor gating in the rat.

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Webber, Emily S; Mankin, David E; McGraw, Justin J; Beckwith, Travis J; Cromwell, Howard C

2013-09-15

Prepulse inhibition (PPI) is a measure of sensorimotor gating in diverse groups of animals including humans. Emotional states can influence PPI in humans both in typical subjects and in individuals with mental illness. Little is known about emotional regulation during PPI in rodents. We used ultrasonic vocalization recording to monitor emotional states in rats during PPI testing. We altered the predictability of the PPI trials to examine any alterations in gating and emotional regulation. We also examined PPI in animals selectively bred for high or low levels of 50kHz USV emission. Rats emitted high levels of 22kHz calls consistently throughout the PPI session. USVs were sensitive to prepulses during the PPI session similar to startle. USV rate was sensitive to predictability among the different levels tested and across repeated experiences. Startle and inhibition of startle were not affected by predictability in a similar manner. No significant differences for PPI or startle were found related to the different levels of predictability; however, there was a reduction in USV signals and an enhancement of PPI after repeated exposure. Animals selectively bred to emit high levels of USVs emitted significantly higher levels of USVs during the PPI session and a reduced ASR compared to the low and random selective lines. Overall, the results support the idea that PPI tests in rodents induce high levels of negative affect and that manipulating emotional styles of the animals alters the negative impact of the gating session as well as the intensity of the startle response. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical significance of plasma lysophosphatidic acid levels in the differential diagnosis of ovarian cancer

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Yun-Jie Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: To investigate the value of lysophosphatidic acid (LPA in the diagnosis of ovarian cancer. Materials and Methods: We first performed a hospital-based, case-control study involving 123 ovarian cancer patients and 101 benign ovarian tumor patients, and then conducted a meta-analysis with 19 case-control studies to assess the correlation between ovarian cancer and plasma LPA levels. Results: The case-control study results demonstrated that ovarian cancer patients have increased LPA and cancer antigen (CA-125 levels compared to patients with benign ovarian tumor (LPA: Ovarian cancer vs benign ovarian tumor: 5.28 ± 1.52 vs 1.82 ± 0.77 μmol/L; CA-125: Ovarian cancer vs benign ovarian tumor: 87.17 ± 45.81 vs. 14.03 ± 10.14 U/mL, which showed statistically significant differences (both P < 0.05. LPA with advanced sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy rate of diagnosis excelled CA-125 in the diagnosis of ovarian cancer (both P < 0.05. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve in the diagnosis of ovarian cancer (LPA: 0.983; CA-125: 0.910 were statistically significant compared with the reference (both P < 0.001 and the difference of the areas of ROC curve between LPA and CA-125 in the diagnosis of ovarian cancer showed statistically significant difference (P < 0.05. The meta-analysis results suggested that plasma LPA levels were higher in ovarian cancer tissues than in benign tissues (standardized mean difference (SMD =2.36, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.61-3.11, P < 0.001 and normal tissues (SMD = 2.32, 95% CI: 1.77-2.87, P < 0.001. Conclusion: LPA shows greater value in the diagnosis of ovarian cancer compared to CA-125 and may be employed as a biological index to diagnose ovarian cancer.

Significance of perfectionism in understanding different forms of insomnia

OpenAIRE

Totić-Poznanović Sanja; Šaula-Marojević Biljana; Zebić Mirjana

2012-01-01

Introduction. Studies consistently show a connection between perfectionism as a multidimensional construct with various psychological and psychopathological states and characteristics. However, studies that analyze the connection between this concept and sleep disturbances, especially modalities of insomnia, are rare. Objective. The aim of this study was to examine whether dimensions of perfectionism can explain different forms of insomnia; difficulties initiating sleep (insomnia early)...

[Predictive factors of clinically significant drug-drug interactions among regimens based on protease inhibitors, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and raltegravir].

Science.gov (United States)

Cervero, Miguel; Torres, Rafael; Jusdado, Juan José; Pastor, Susana; Agud, Jose Luis

2016-04-15

To determine the prevalence and types of clinically significant drug-drug interactions (CSDI) in the drug regimens of HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral treatment. retrospective review of database. Centre: Hospital Universitario Severo Ochoa, Infectious Unit. one hundred and forty-two participants followed by one of the authors were selected from January 1985 to December 2014. from their outpatient medical records we reviewed information from the last available visit of the participants, in relation to HIV infection, comorbidities, demographics and the drugs that they were receiving; both antiretroviral drugs and drugs not related to HIV infection. We defined CSDI from the information sheet and/or database on antiretroviral drug interactions of the University of Liverpool (http://www.hiv-druginteractions.org) and we developed a diagnostic tool to predict the possibility of CSDI. By multivariate logistic regression analysis and by estimating the diagnostic performance curve obtained, we identified a quick tool to predict the existence of drug interactions. Of 142 patients, 39 (29.11%) had some type of CSDI and in 11.2% 2 or more interactions were detected. In only one patient the combination of drugs was contraindicated (this patient was receiving darunavir/r and quetiapine). In multivariate analyses, predictors of CSDI were regimen type (PI or NNRTI) and the use of 3 or more non-antiretroviral drugs (AUC 0.886, 95% CI 0.828 to 0.944; P=.0001). The risk was 18.55 times in those receiving NNRTI and 27,95 times in those receiving IP compared to those taking raltegravir. Drug interactions, including those defined as clinically significant, are common in HIV-infected patients treated with antiretroviral drugs, and the risk is greater in IP-based regimens. Raltegravir-based prescribing, especially in patients who receive at least 3 non-HIV drugs could avoid interactions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Preoperative Metabolic Syndrome Is Predictive of Significant Gastric Cancer Mortality after Gastrectomy: The Fujian Prospective Investigation of Cancer (FIESTA Study

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Dan Hu

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Metabolic syndrome (MetS has been shown to be associated with an increased risk of gastric cancer. However, the impact of MetS on gastric cancer mortality remains largely unknown. Here, we prospectively examined the prediction of preoperative MetS for gastric cancer mortality by analyzing a subset of data from the ongoing Fujian prospective investigation of cancer (FIESTA study. This study was conducted among 3012 patients with gastric cancer who received radical gastrectomy between 2000 and 2010. The latest follow-up was completed in 2015. Blood/tissue specimens, demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics were collected at baseline. During 15-year follow-up, 1331 of 3012 patients died of gastric cancer. The median survival time (MST of patients with MetS was 31.3 months, which was significantly shorter than that of MetS-free patients (157.1 months. The coexistence of MetS before surgery was associated with a 2.3-fold increased risk for gastric cancer mortality (P < 0.001. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs were increased with invasion depth T1/T2 (HR = 2.78, P < 0.001, regional lymph node metastasis N0 (HR = 2.65, P < 0.001, positive distant metastasis (HR = 2.53, P < 0.001, TNM stage I/II (HR = 3.00, P < 0.001, intestinal type (HR = 2.96, P < 0.001, negative tumor embolus (HR = 2.34, P < 0.001, and tumor size ≤4.5 cm (HR = 2.49, P < 0.001. Further survival tree analysis confirmed the top splitting role of TNM stage, followed by MetS or hyperglycemia with remarkable discrimination ability. In this large cohort study, preoperative MetS, especially hyperglycemia, was predictive of significant gastric cancer mortality in patients with radical gastrectomy, especially for early stage of gastric cancer.

Comparison of different models for ground-level atmospheric turbulence strength (C(n)(2)) prediction with a new model according to local weather data for FSO applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Arockia Bazil Raj, A; Arputha Vijaya Selvi, J; Durairaj, S

2015-02-01

Atmospheric parameters strongly affect the performance of free-space optical communication (FSOC) systems when the optical wave is propagating through the inhomogeneous turbulence transmission medium. Developing a model to get an accurate prediction of the atmospheric turbulence strength (C(n)(2)) according to meteorological parameters (weather data) becomes significant to understand the behavior of the FSOC channel during different seasons. The construction of a dedicated free-space optical link for the range of 0.5 km at an altitude of 15.25 m built at Thanjavur (Tamil Nadu) is described in this paper. The power level and beam centroid information of the received signal are measured continuously with weather data at the same time using an optoelectronic assembly and the developed weather station, respectively, and are recorded in a data-logging computer. Existing models that exhibit relatively fewer prediction errors are briefed and are selected for comparative analysis. Measured weather data (as input factors) and C(n)(2) (as a response factor) of size [177,147×4] are used for linear regression analysis and to design mathematical models more suitable in the test field. Along with the model formulation methodologies, we have presented the contributions of the input factors' individual and combined effects on the response surface and the coefficient of determination (R(2)) estimated using analysis of variance tools. An R(2) value of 98.93% is obtained using the new model, model equation V, from a confirmatory test conducted with a testing data set of size [2000×4]. In addition, the prediction accuracies of the selected and the new models are investigated during different seasons in a one-year period using the statistics of day, week-averaged, month-averaged, and seasonal-averaged diurnal Cn2 profiles, and are verified in terms of the sum of absolute error (SAE). A Cn2 prediction maximum average SAE of 2.3×10(-13)  m(-2/3) is achieved using the new model in

The Gender Difference: Validity of Standardized Admission Tests in Predicting MBA Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Hancock, Terence

1999-01-01

Of 120 female and 149 male master of business administration (MBA) students, women performed significantly less well on the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT). There were no differences in overall MBA grade point average, indicating no strong correlation between the GMAT and MBA performance. (SK)

Statistically significant faunal differences among Middle Ordovician age, Chickamauga Group bryozoan bioherms, central Alabama

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crow, C.J.

1985-01-01

Middle Ordovician age Chickamauga Group carbonates crop out along the Birmingham and Murphrees Valley anticlines in central Alabama. The macrofossil contents on exposed surfaces of seven bioherms have been counted to determine their various paleontologic characteristics. Twelve groups of organisms are present in these bioherms. Dominant organisms include bryozoans, algae, brachiopods, sponges, pelmatozoans, stromatoporoids and corals. Minor accessory fauna include predators, scavengers and grazers such as gastropods, ostracods, trilobites, cephalopods and pelecypods. Vertical and horizontal niche zonation has been detected for some of the bioherm dwelling fauna. No one bioherm of those studied exhibits all 12 groups of organisms; rather, individual bioherms display various subsets of the total diversity. Statistical treatment (G-test) of the diversity data indicates a lack of statistical homogeneity of the bioherms, both within and between localities. Between-locality population heterogeneity can be ascribed to differences in biologic responses to such gross environmental factors as water depth and clarity, and energy levels. At any one locality, gross aspects of the paleoenvironments are assumed to have been more uniform. Significant differences among bioherms at any one locality may have resulted from patchy distribution of species populations, differential preservation and other factors.

Does trait affectivity predict work-to-family conflict and enrichment beyond job characteristics?

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Tement, Sara; Korunka, Christian

2013-01-01

The present study examines whether negative and positive affectivity (NA and PA, respectively) predict different forms of work-to-family conflict (WFC-time, WFC-strain, WFC-behavior) and enrichment (WFE-development, WFE-affect, WFE-capital) beyond job characteristics (workload, autonomy, variety, workplace support). Furthermore, interactions between job characteristics and trait affectivity while predicting WFC and WFE were examined. Using a large sample of Slovenian employees (N = 738), NA and PA were found to explain variance in WFC as well as in WFE above and beyond job characteristics. More precisely, NA significantly predicted WFC, whereas PA significantly predicted WFE. In addition, several interactive effects were found to predict forms of WFC and WFE. These results highlight the importance of trait affectivity in work-family research. They provide further support for the crucial impact of job characteristics as well.

Applications of linking PBPK and PD models to predict the impact of genotypic variability, formulation differences, differences in target binding capacity and target site drug concentrations on drug responses and variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Chetty, Manoranjenni; Rose, Rachel H; Abduljalil, Khaled; Patel, Nikunjkumar; Lu, Gaohua; Cain, Theresa; Jamei, Masoud; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin

2014-01-01

This study aimed to demonstrate the added value of integrating prior in vitro data and knowledge-rich physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models with pharmacodynamics (PDs) models. Four distinct applications that were developed and tested are presented here. PBPK models were developed for metoprolol using different CYP2D6 genotypes based on in vitro data. Application of the models for prediction of phenotypic differences in the pharmacokinetics (PKs) and PD compared favorably with clinical data, demonstrating that these differences can be predicted prior to the availability of such data from clinical trials. In the second case, PK and PD data for an immediate release formulation of nifedipine together with in vitro dissolution data for a controlled release (CR) formulation were used to predict the PK and PD of the CR. This approach can be useful to pharmaceutical scientists during formulation development. The operational model of agonism was used in the third application to describe the hypnotic effects of triazolam, and this was successfully extrapolated to zolpidem by changing only the drug related parameters from in vitro experiments. This PBPK modeling approach can be useful to developmental scientists who which to compare several drug candidates in the same therapeutic class. Finally, differences in QTc prolongation due to quinidine in Caucasian and Korean females were successfully predicted by the model using free heart concentrations as an input to the PD models. This PBPK linked PD model was used to demonstrate a higher sensitivity to free heart concentrations of quinidine in Caucasian females, thereby providing a mechanistic understanding of a clinical observation. In general, permutations of certain conditions which potentially change PK and hence PD may not be amenable to the conduct of clinical studies but linking PBPK with PD provides an alternative method of investigating the potential impact of PK changes on PD.

Applications of linking PBPK and PD models to predict the impact of genotypic variability, formulation differences, differences in target binding capacity and target site drug concentrations on drug responses and variability.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manoranjenni eChetty

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to demonstrate the added value of integrating prior in vitro data and knowledge-rich physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK models with pharmacodynamics (PD models. Four distinct applications that were developed and tested are presented here. PBPK models were developed for metoprolol using different CYP2D6 genotypes based on in vitro data. Application of the models for prediction of phenotypic differences in the pharmacokinetics (PK and PD compared favourably with clinical data, demonstrating that these differences can be predicted prior to the availability of such data from clinical trials. In the second case, PK and PD data for an immediate release formulation of nifedipine together with in vitro dissolution data for a controlled release formulation (CR were used to predict the PK and PD of the CR. This approach can be useful to pharmaceutical scientists during formulation development. The operational model of agonism was used in the third application to describe the hypnotic effects of triazolam, and this was successfully extrapolated to zolpidem by changing only the drug related parameters from in vitro experiments. This PBPK modelling approach can be useful to developmental scientists who which to compare several drug candidates in the same therapeutic class. Finally, differences in QTc prolongation due to quinidine in Caucasian and Korean females were successfully predicted by the model using free heart concentrations as an input to the PD models. This PBPK linked PD model was used to demonstrate a higher sensitivity to free heart concentrations of quinidine in Caucasian females, thereby providing a mechanistic understanding of a clinical observation. In general, permutations of certain conditions which potentially change PK and hence PD may not be amenable to the conduct of clinical studies but linking PBPK with PD provides an alternative method of investigating the potential impact of PK changes on PD.

The potential biomarkers in predicting pathologic response of breast cancer to three different chemotherapy regimens: a case control study

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Xu Chaoyang

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Preoperative chemotherapy (PCT has become the standard of care in locally advanced breast cancer. The identification of patient-specific tumor characteristics that can improve the ability to predict response to therapy would help optimize treatment, improve treatment outcomes, and avoid unnecessary exposure to potential toxicities. This study is to determine whether selected biomarkers could predict pathologic response (PR of breast tumors to three different PCT regimens, and to identify a subset of patients who would benefit from a given type of treatment. Methods 118 patients with primary breast tumor were identified and three PCT regimens including DEC (docetaxel+epirubicin+cyclophosphamide, VFC (vinorelbine/vincristine+5-fluorouracil+cyclophosphamide and EFC (epirubicin+5-fluorouracil+cyclophosphamide were investigated. Expression of steroid receptors, HER2, P-gp, MRP, GST-pi and Topo-II was evaluated by immunohistochemical scoring on tumor tissues obtained before and after PCT. The PR of breast carcinoma was graded according to Sataloff's classification. Chi square test, logistic regression and Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel assay were performed to determine the association between biomarkers and PR, as well as the effectiveness of each regimen on induction of PR. Results There was a clear-cut correlation between the expression of ER and decreased PR to PCT in all three different regimens (p p Conclusion ER is an independent predictive factor for PR to PCT regimens including DEC, VFC and EFC in primary breast tumors, while HER2 is only predictive for DEC regimen. Expression of PgR, Topo-II, P-gp, MRP and GST-pi are not predictive for PR to any PCT regimens investigated. Results obtained in this clinical study may be helpful for the selection of appropriate treatments for breast cancer patients.

Process of Judging Significant Modifications for Different Transportation Systems compared to the Approach for Nuclear Installations

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Nicolas Petrek

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The implementation of the CSM regulation by the European Commission in 2009 which harmonizes the risk assessment process and introduces a rather new concept of judging changes within the European railway industry. This circumstance has risen the question how other technology sectors handle the aspect of modifications and alterations. The paper discusses the approaches for judging the significance of modifications within the three transport sectors of European railways, aviation and maritime transportation and the procedure which is used in the area of nuclear safety. We will outline the similarities and differences between these four methods and discuss the underlying reasons. Finally, we will take into account the role of the European legislator and the fundamental idea of a harmonization of the different approaches.

Predictive value of different conventional and non-conventional MRI-parameters for specific domains of cognitive function in multiple sclerosis

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Daniela Pinter

2015-01-01

Conclusions: The predictive value of distinct MRI-parameters differs for specific domains of cognitive function, with a greater impact of cortical volume, focal and diffuse white matter abnormalities on overall cognitive function, an additional role of basal ganglia iron deposition on cognitive efficiency, and thalamic and hippocampal volume on memory function. This suggests the usefulness of using multiparametric MRI to assess (microstructural correlates of different cognitive constructs.

Genetic fuzzy system predicting contractile reactivity patterns of small arteries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tang, J; Sheykhzade, Majid; Clausen, B F

2014-01-01

strategies. Results show that optimized fuzzy systems (OFSs) predict contractile reactivity of arteries accurately. In addition, OFSs identified significant differences that were undetectable using conventional analysis in the responses of arteries between groups. We concluded that OFSs may be used...

Predicting drug-target interactions using restricted Boltzmann machines.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yuhao; Zeng, Jianyang

2013-07-01

In silico prediction of drug-target interactions plays an important role toward identifying and developing new uses of existing or abandoned drugs. Network-based approaches have recently become a popular tool for discovering new drug-target interactions (DTIs). Unfortunately, most of these network-based approaches can only predict binary interactions between drugs and targets, and information about different types of interactions has not been well exploited for DTI prediction in previous studies. On the other hand, incorporating additional information about drug-target relationships or drug modes of action can improve prediction of DTIs. Furthermore, the predicted types of DTIs can broaden our understanding about the molecular basis of drug action. We propose a first machine learning approach to integrate multiple types of DTIs and predict unknown drug-target relationships or drug modes of action. We cast the new DTI prediction problem into a two-layer graphical model, called restricted Boltzmann machine, and apply a practical learning algorithm to train our model and make predictions. Tests on two public databases show that our restricted Boltzmann machine model can effectively capture the latent features of a DTI network and achieve excellent performance on predicting different types of DTIs, with the area under precision-recall curve up to 89.6. In addition, we demonstrate that integrating multiple types of DTIs can significantly outperform other predictions either by simply mixing multiple types of interactions without distinction or using only a single interaction type. Further tests show that our approach can infer a high fraction of novel DTIs that has been validated by known experiments in the literature or other databases. These results indicate that our approach can have highly practical relevance to DTI prediction and drug repositioning, and hence advance the drug discovery process. Software and datasets are available on request. Supplementary data are

The prognostic significance of HOTAIR for predicting clinical outcome in patients with digestive system tumors.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Gaoxiang; Wang, Qiaoyan; Lv, Chunye; Qiang, Fulin; Hua, Qiuhan; Chu, Haiyan; Du, Mulong; Tong, Na; Jiang, Yejuan; Wang, Meilin; Zhang, Zhengdong; Wang, Jian; Gong, Weida

2015-12-01

Although some studies have assessed the prognostic value of HOTAIR in patients with digestive system tumors, the relationship between the HOTAIR and outcome of digestive system tumors remains unknown. The PubMed was searched to identify the eligible studies. Here, we performed a meta-analysis with 11 studies, including a total of 903 cases. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) of HOTAIR for cancer survival were calculated. We found that the pooled HR elevated HOTAIR expression in tumor tissues was 2.36 (95 % CI 1.88-2.97) compared with patients with low HOTAIR expression. Moreover, subgroup analysis revealed that HOTAIR overexpression was also markedly associated with short survival for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (HR 2.19, 95 % CI 1.62-2.94) and gastric cancer (HR 1.66, 95 % CI 1.02-2.68). In addition, up-regulated HOTAIR was significantly related to survival of digestive system cancer among the studies with more follow-up time (follow time ≥ 5 years) (HR 2.51, 95 % CI 1.99-3.17). When stratified by HR resource and number of patients, the result indicated consistent results with the overall analysis. Subgroup analysis on ethnicities did not change the prognostic influence of elevated HOTAIR expression. Additionally, we conducted an independent validation cohort including 71 gastric cancer cases, in which patients with up-regulated HOTAIR expression had an unfavorable outcome with HR of 2.10 (95 % CI 1.10-4.03). The results suggest that aberrant HOTAIR expression may serve as a candidate positive marker to predict the prognosis of patients with carcinoma of digestive system.

Individual differences in the recognition of facial expressions: an event-related potentials study.

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Yoshiyuki Tamamiya

Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that early posterior components of event-related potentials (ERPs are modulated by facial expressions. The goal of the current study was to investigate individual differences in the recognition of facial expressions by examining the relationship between ERP components and the discrimination of facial expressions. Pictures of 3 facial expressions (angry, happy, and neutral were presented to 36 young adults during ERP recording. Participants were asked to respond with a button press as soon as they recognized the expression depicted. A multiple regression analysis, where ERP components were set as predictor variables, assessed hits and reaction times in response to the facial expressions as dependent variables. The N170 amplitudes significantly predicted for accuracy of angry and happy expressions, and the N170 latencies were predictive for accuracy of neutral expressions. The P2 amplitudes significantly predicted reaction time. The P2 latencies significantly predicted reaction times only for neutral faces. These results suggest that individual differences in the recognition of facial expressions emerge from early components in visual processing.

Individual differences in the recognition of facial expressions: an event-related potentials study.

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Tamamiya, Yoshiyuki; Hiraki, Kazuo

2013-01-01

Previous studies have shown that early posterior components of event-related potentials (ERPs) are modulated by facial expressions. The goal of the current study was to investigate individual differences in the recognition of facial expressions by examining the relationship between ERP components and the discrimination of facial expressions. Pictures of 3 facial expressions (angry, happy, and neutral) were presented to 36 young adults during ERP recording. Participants were asked to respond with a button press as soon as they recognized the expression depicted. A multiple regression analysis, where ERP components were set as predictor variables, assessed hits and reaction times in response to the facial expressions as dependent variables. The N170 amplitudes significantly predicted for accuracy of angry and happy expressions, and the N170 latencies were predictive for accuracy of neutral expressions. The P2 amplitudes significantly predicted reaction time. The P2 latencies significantly predicted reaction times only for neutral faces. These results suggest that individual differences in the recognition of facial expressions emerge from early components in visual processing.

SU-F-J-219: Predicting Ventilation Change Due to Radiation Therapy: Dependency On Pre-RT Ventilation and Effort Correction

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Patton, T; Du, K; Bayouth, J [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Christensen, G; Reinhardt, J [University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: Ventilation change caused by radiation therapy (RT) can be predicted using four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) and image registration. This study tested the dependency of predicted post-RT ventilation on effort correction and pre-RT lung function. Methods: Pre-RT and 3 month post-RT 4DCT images were obtained for 13 patients. The 4DCT images were used to create ventilation maps using a deformable image registration based Jacobian expansion calculation. The post-RT ventilation maps were predicted in four different ways using the dose delivered, pre-RT ventilation, and effort correction. The pre-RT ventilation and effort correction were toggled to determine dependency. The four different predicted ventilation maps were compared to the post-RT ventilation map calculated from image registration to establish the best prediction method. Gamma pass rates were used to compare the different maps with the criteria of 2mm distance-to-agreement and 6% ventilation difference. Paired t-tests of gamma pass rates were used to determine significant differences between the maps. Additional gamma pass rates were calculated using only voxels receiving over 20 Gy. Results: The predicted post-RT ventilation maps were in agreement with the actual post-RT maps in the following percentage of voxels averaged over all subjects: 71% with pre-RT ventilation and effort correction, 69% with no pre-RT ventilation and effort correction, 60% with pre-RT ventilation and no effort correction, and 58% with no pre-RT ventilation and no effort correction. When analyzing only voxels receiving over 20 Gy, the gamma pass rates were respectively 74%, 69%, 65%, and 55%. The prediction including both pre- RT ventilation and effort correction was the only prediction with significant improvement over using no prediction (p<0.02). Conclusion: Post-RT ventilation is best predicted using both pre-RT ventilation and effort correction. This is the only prediction that provided a significant

Prediction of soot and thermal radiation in a model gas turbine combustor burning kerosene fuel spray at different swirl levels

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Ghose, Prakash; Patra, Jitendra; Datta, Amitava; Mukhopadhyay, Achintya

2016-05-01

Combustion of kerosene fuel spray has been numerically simulated in a laboratory scale combustor geometry to predict soot and the effects of thermal radiation at different swirl levels of primary air flow. The two-phase motion in the combustor is simulated using an Eulerian-Lagragian formulation considering the stochastic separated flow model. The Favre-averaged governing equations are solved for the gas phase with the turbulent quantities simulated by realisable k-ɛ model. The injection of the fuel is considered through a pressure swirl atomiser and the combustion is simulated by a laminar flamelet model with detailed kinetics of kerosene combustion. Soot formation in the flame is predicted using an empirical model with the model parameters adjusted for kerosene fuel. Contributions of gas phase and soot towards thermal radiation have been considered to predict the incident heat flux on the combustor wall and fuel injector. Swirl in the primary flow significantly influences the flow and flame structures in the combustor. The stronger recirculation at high swirl draws more air into the flame region, reduces the flame length and peak flame temperature and also brings the soot laden zone closer to the inlet plane. As a result, the radiative heat flux on the peripheral wall decreases at high swirl and also shifts closer to the inlet plane. However, increased swirl increases the combustor wall temperature due to radial spreading of the flame. The high incident radiative heat flux and the high surface temperature make the fuel injector a critical item in the combustor. The injector peak temperature increases with the increase in swirl flow mainly because the flame is located closer to the inlet plane. On the other hand, a more uniform temperature distribution in the exhaust gas can be attained at the combustor exit at high swirl condition.

Do the Big Five personality traits predict individual differences in the left cheek bias for emotion perception?

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Galea, Samantha; Lindell, Annukka K

2016-01-01

Like language, emotion is a lateralized function. Because the right hemisphere typically dominates emotion processing, people express stronger emotion on the left side of their face. This prompts a left cheek bias: we offer the left cheek to express emotion and rate left cheek portraits more emotionally expressive than right cheek portraits. Though the majority of the population show this left cheek bias (60-70%), individual differences exist but remain largely unexplained. Given that people with higher self-rated emotional expressivity show a stronger left cheek bias, personality variables associated with increased emotional expressivity and emotional intelligence, such as extraversion and openness, may help account for individual differences. The present study thus examined whether the Big Five traits predict left cheek preferences. Participants (M = 58, F = 116) completed the NEO-Five Factor Personality Inventory (NEO-FFI) [Costa, P. T. J., & McCrae, R. R. (1992). NEO PI-R professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources] and viewed pairs of left and right cheek images (half mirror-reversed); participants made forced-choice decisions, indicating which image in each pair looked happier. Hierarchical regression indicated that neither trait extraversion nor openness predicted left cheek selections, with NEO-FFI personality subscales accounting for negligible variance in preferences. As the Big Five traits have been discounted, exploration of other potential contributors to individual differences in the left cheek bias is clearly needed.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

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Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

2012-01-19

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Influence of Feature Encoding and Choice of Classifier on Disease Risk Prediction in Genome-Wide Association Studies.

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Florian Mittag

Full Text Available Various attempts have been made to predict the individual disease risk based on genotype data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS. However, most studies only investigated one or two classification algorithms and feature encoding schemes. In this study, we applied seven different classification algorithms on GWAS case-control data sets for seven different diseases to create models for disease risk prediction. Further, we used three different encoding schemes for the genotypes of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs and investigated their influence on the predictive performance of these models. Our study suggests that an additive encoding of the SNP data should be the preferred encoding scheme, as it proved to yield the best predictive performances for all algorithms and data sets. Furthermore, our results showed that the differences between most state-of-the-art classification algorithms are not statistically significant. Consequently, we recommend to prefer algorithms with simple models like the linear support vector machine (SVM as they allow for better subsequent interpretation without significant loss of accuracy.

Clinical and angiographic predictors of haemodynamically significant angiographic lesions: development and validation of a risk score to predict positive fractional flow reserve.

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Sareen, Nishtha; Baber, Usman; Kezbor, Safwan; Sayseng, Sonny; Aquino, Melissa; Mehran, Roxana; Sweeny, Joseph; Barman, Nitin; Kini, Annapoorna; Sharma, Samin K

2017-04-07

Coronary revascularisation based upon physiological evaluation of lesions improves clinical outcomes. Angiographic or visual stenosis assessment alone is insufficient in predicting haemodynamic stenosis severity by fractional flow reserve (FFR) and therefore cannot be used to guide revascularisation, particularly in the lesion subset system formulated. Of 1,023 consecutive lesions (883 patients), 314 (31%) were haemodynamically significant. Characteristics associated with FFR ≤0.8 include male gender, higher SYNTAX score, lesions ≥20 mm, stenosis >50%, bifurcation, calcification, absence of tortuosity and smaller reference diameter. A user-friendly integer score was developed with the five variables demonstrating the strongest association. On prospective validation (in 279 distinct lesions), the increasing value of the score correlated well with increasing haemodynamic significance (C-statistic 0.85). We identified several clinical and angiographic characteristics and formulated a scoring system to guide the approach to intermediate lesions. This may translate into cost savings. Larger studies with prospective validation are required to confirm our results.

Sex-dependent independent prediction of incident diabetes by depressive symptoms.

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Akbaş-Şimşek, Tuğba; Onat, Altan; Kaya, Adnan; Tusun, Eyyup; Yüksel, Hüsniye; Can, Günay

2017-12-01

To study the predictive value of depressive symptoms (DeprSs) in a general population of Turkey for type 2 diabetes. Responses to three questions served to assess the sense of depression. Cox regression analyses were used regarding risk estimates for incident diabetes, after exclusion of prevalent cases of diabetes. Mean follow-up consisted of 5.15 (±1.4) years. Depressive symptoms were present at baseline in 16.2% of the whole study sample, threefold in women than men. Reduced physical activity grade was the only significant covariate at baseline in men, while younger age and lower blood pressure were significantly different in women compared with those without DeprS. In men, presence of DeprS predicted incident diabetes at a significant 2.58-fold relative risk (95% confidence interval 1.03; 6.44), after adjustment for age, systolic blood pressure, and antidepressant drug usage. When further covariates were added, waist circumference remained the only significant predictor, while DepS was attenuated to a relative risk of 2.12 (95% confidence interval 0.83; 5.40). DeprS was not associated with diabetes in women, whereas antidepressant drug usage only tended to be positively associated. Gender difference existed in the relationship between DeprS and incident diabetes. DeprS predicted subsequent development of diabetes in men alone, not in women. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Integrative approach to pre-operative determination of clinically significant prostate cancer

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Shatylko T.V.

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Aim: improvement of early diagnostics of prostate cancer by developing a technique, which makes possible to predict its clinical significance in outpatient setting before initiation of invasive procedures. Material and Methods. Clinical data of 398 patients who underwent transrectal prostate biopsy in 2012-2014 in SSMU S. R. Mirotvortsev Clinical Hospital, was used to build an artificial neural network, while its output allowed to determine whether the tumour corresponds to Epstein criteria and which D'Amico risk group it belongs to. Internal validation was performed on 80 patients, who underwent prostate biopsy in September 2014 — December 2014. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of artificial neural network were calculated. Results. Accuracy of predicting adenocarcinoma presence in biopsy specimen was 93,75%; accuracy of predicting whether the cancer meets active surveillance criteria was 90%. Accuracy of predicting T stage (T1c, T2a, T2b, T2cwas 57,1%. Prediction of D'Amico risk group was accurate in 70% of cases; for low-risk cancer accuracy was 81,2%. Conclusion. Artificial neural networks may be responsible for prostate cancer risk stratification and determination of its clinical significance prior to biopsy.

The interactional significance of formulas in autistic language.

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Dobbinson, Sushie; Perkins, Mick; Boucher, Jill

2003-01-01

The phenomenon of echolalia in autistic language is well documented. Whilst much early research dismissed echolalia as merely an indicator of cognitive limitation, later work identified particular discourse functions of echolalic utterances. The work reported here extends the study of the interactional significance of echolalia to formulaic utterances. Audio and video recordings of conversations between the first author and two research participants were transcribed and analysed according to a Conversation Analysis framework and a multi-layered linguistic framework. Formulaic language was found to have predictable interactional significance within the language of an individual with autism, and the generic phenomenon of formulaicity in company with predictable discourse function was seen to hold across the research participants, regardless of cognitive ability. The implications of formulaicity in autistic language for acquisition and processing mechanisms are discussed.

Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

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Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

Developmental differences in childhood motor coordination predict adult alcohol dependence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manzardo, Ann M; Penick, Elizabeth C; Knop, Joachim

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND: The Danish Longitudinal Study of Alcoholism has identified a number of early biological indicators that predicted alcohol dependence 30 years later. In light of recent evidence linking deficits of the cerebellum to certain neuropsychiatric disorders often comorbid with alcoholism, we...

Impact of Lesion Length on Functional Significance in Intermediate Coronary Lesions

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Morteza Safi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The present study aimed at assessing the role of lesion length in predicting Fractional Flow Reserve (FFR value for physiological evaluation of intermediate coronary lesions.Methods: In the current study, 68 patients with 83 coronary lesions were enrolled. All of the patients in this study underwent routine coronary angiography, according to appropriate indications. To evaluate physiologically significant intermediate coronary stenosis (defined between 40% and 70% on visual estimation, the Fractional Flow Reserve (FFR study was performed and the Quantitative Coronary Angiography (QCA data were also assessed for measurement of lesion length. The correlation between QCA data and FFR values was also examined.Results: Eighty-three lesions were evaluated from 68 patients. Stenosis was considered physiologically significant when FFR was lower than 0.75. The FFR was significant in twelve lesions (14.5%. There was a negative correlation between FFR value and lesion length (r = -0.294 and P = 0.013. Moreover, lesion length in physiologically significant FFR group (21.07  ± 6.9 was greater than that of the non-significant FFR group (15.23 ± 6.5 (P value < 0.05. Furthermore, the correlation between QCA data and FFR values was also investigated, yet, there was only a positive correlation between FFR and Minimum Luminal Diameter (MLD values (r = 0.248 and P value = 0.04. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve analysis for predicting the significant FFR value demonstrated that a lesion length greater than 17.5 mm was the best cut-off point for prediction of the significant FFR value with acceptable sensitivity and specificity of 83.3% and 68.8%, respectively.Conclusions: There is a negative correlation between lesion length and FFR value in intermediate coronary lesions. In addition, a lesion length greater than 17.5 mm is the best cut- off point for prediction of significant FFR values.

Significance of uncertainties derived from settling tank model structure and parameters on predicting WWTP performance - A global sensitivity analysis study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2011-01-01

Uncertainty derived from one of the process models – such as one-dimensional secondary settling tank (SST) models – can impact the output of the other process models, e.g., biokinetic (ASM1), as well as the integrated wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) models. The model structure and parameter...... and from the last aerobic bioreactor upstream to the SST (Garrett/hydraulic method). For model structure uncertainty, two one-dimensional secondary settling tank (1-D SST) models are assessed, including a first-order model (the widely used Takács-model), in which the feasibility of using measured...... uncertainty of settler models can therefore propagate, and add to the uncertainties in prediction of any plant performance criteria. Here we present an assessment of the relative significance of secondary settling model performance in WWTP simulations. We perform a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) based...

Critical velocity and anaerobic paddling capacity determined by different mathematical models and number of predictive trials in canoe slalom.

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Messias, Leonardo H D; Ferrari, Homero G; Reis, Ivan G M; Scariot, Pedro P M; Manchado-Gobatto, Fúlvia B

2015-03-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze if different combinations of trials as well as mathematical models can modify the aerobic and anaerobic estimates from critical velocity protocol applied in canoe slalom. Fourteen male elite slalom kayakers from Brazilian canoe slalom team (K1) were evaluated. Athletes were submitted to four predictive trials of 150, 300, 450 and 600 meters in a lake and the time to complete each trial was recorded. Critical velocity (CV-aerobic parameter) and anaerobic paddling capacity (APC-anaerobic parameter) were obtained by three mathematical models (Linear1=distance-time; Linear 2=velocity-1/time and Non-Linear = time-velocity). Linear 1 was chosen for comparison of predictive trials combinations. Standard combination (SC) was considered as the four trials (150, 300, 450 and 600 m). High fits of regression were obtained from all mathematical models (range - R² = 0.96-1.00). Repeated measures ANOVA pointed out differences of all mathematical models for CV (p = 0.006) and APC (p = 0.016) as well as R² (p = 0.033). Estimates obtained from the first (1) and the fourth (4) predictive trials (150 m = lowest; and 600 m = highest, respectively) were similar and highly correlated (r=0.98 for CV and r = 0.96 for APC) with the SC. In summary, methodological aspects must be considered in critical velocity application in canoe slalom, since different combinations of trials as well as mathematical models resulted in different aerobic and anaerobic estimates. Key pointsGreat attention must be given for methodological concerns regarding critical velocity protocol applied on canoe slalom, since different estimates were obtained depending on the mathematical model and the predictive trials used.Linear 1 showed the best fits of regression. Furthermore, to the best of our knowledge and considering practical applications, this model is the easiest one to calculate the estimates from critical velocity protocol. Considering this, the abyss between science

Visumax femtolasik versus Moria M2 microkeratome in mild to moderate myopia: efficacy, safety, predictability, aberrometric changes and flap thickness predictability.

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Torky, Magda A; Al Zafiri, Yousif A; Khattab, Abeer M; Farag, Rania K; Awad, Eman A

2017-07-17

This is an interventional prospective clinical study which was conducted to evaluate the efficacy, safety, predictability, ocular aberrations, and flap thickness predictability of Visumax femtosecond laser (FSL) compared to Moria M2 microkeratome (MK) in mild to moderate myopia. This study included 60 eyes who were divided into two groups. Thirty eyes in group (I) in which the flap was created with Visumax FSL, while in group II (30 eyes) the Moria M2 MK was used. Keratometric, refractive, and aberrometric measurements were compared preoperatively and 3 months postoperatively. The intraoperative subtraction pachymetry (the SP 100 Handy pachymeter (Tomey, Nagoya, Japan) was used for preoperative pachymetry and flap thickness measurement. No significant difference was found between the two groups in regards to postoperative manifest sphere, spherical equivalent, astigmatism, safety indices nor ocular aberrations. Twenty six eyes (86.6%) in group I and 23 eyes in group II (76.6%) were within ±0.5D of the intended correction and 23 eyes (76.6%) in group I and 15 eyes in group II (50%) were within ±0.25D of the intended correction. In group I, the mean postoperative actual flap thickness was 100.12 ± 16.1 μm (81 to 122 μm), while in group II, it was 104.6 ± 20.1 μm (62 to 155 μm). The difference was statistically significant (p = 0.001). Both Visumax and Moria M2 MK are safe and effective in treating myopia with no statistically significant difference in induction of ocular aberrations but with potential advantage for Visumax regarding predictability. More accurate flap thickness is achieved with Visumax femtolasik. This study was retrospectively registered on 19/6/2017. Trial registration number NCT03193411 , clinicalTrials.gov .

PREDICTION MODELS OF GRAIN YIELD AND CHARACTERIZATION

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Narciso Ysac Avila Serrano

2009-06-01

Full Text Available With the objective to characterize the grain yield of five cowpea cultivars and to find linear regression models to predict it, a study was developed in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico. A complete randomized blocks design was used. Simple and multivariate analyses of variance were carried out using the canonical variables to characterize the cultivars. The variables cluster per plant, pods per plant, pods per cluster, seeds weight per plant, seeds hectoliter weight, 100-seed weight, seeds length, seeds wide, seeds thickness, pods length, pods wide, pods weight, seeds per pods, and seeds weight per pods, showed significant differences (P≤ 0.05 among cultivars. Paceño and IT90K-277-2 cultivars showed the higher seeds weight per plant. The linear regression models showed correlation coefficients ≥0.92. In these models, the seeds weight per plant, pods per cluster, pods per plant, cluster per plant and pods length showed significant correlations (P≤ 0.05. In conclusion, the results showed that grain yield differ among cultivars and for its estimation, the prediction models showed determination coefficients highly dependable.

Modelling individual difference in visual categorization.

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Shen, Jianhong; Palmeri, Thomas J

Recent years has seen growing interest in understanding, characterizing, and explaining individual differences in visual cognition. We focus here on individual differences in visual categorization. Categorization is the fundamental visual ability to group different objects together as the same kind of thing. Research on visual categorization and category learning has been significantly informed by computational modeling, so our review will focus both on how formal models of visual categorization have captured individual differences and how individual difference have informed the development of formal models. We first examine the potential sources of individual differences in leading models of visual categorization, providing a brief review of a range of different models. We then describe several examples of how computational models have captured individual differences in visual categorization. This review also provides a bit of an historical perspective, starting with models that predicted no individual differences, to those that captured group differences, to those that predict true individual differences, and to more recent hierarchical approaches that can simultaneously capture both group and individual differences in visual categorization. Via this selective review, we see how considerations of individual differences can lead to important theoretical insights into how people visually categorize objects in the world around them. We also consider new directions for work examining individual differences in visual categorization.

Evaluation of energy digestibility and prediction of digestible and metabolizable energy from chemical composition of different cottonseed meal sources fed to growing pigs.

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Li, J T; Li, D F; Zang, J J; Yang, W J; Zhang, W J; Zhang, L Y

2012-10-01

The present experiment was conducted to determine the digestible energy (DE), metabolizable energy (ME) content, and the apparent total tract digestibility (ATTD) of energy in growing pigs fed diets containing one of ten cottonseed meals (CSM) collected from different provinces of China and to develop in vitro prediction equations for DE and ME content from chemical composition of the CSM samples. Twelve growing barrows with an initial body weight of 35.2±1.7 kg were allotted to two 6×6 Latin square designs, with six barrows and six periods and six diets for each. A corn-dehulled soybean meal diet was used as the basal diet, and the other ten diets were formulated with corn, dehulled soybean meal and 19.20% CSM. The DE, ME and ATTD of gross energy among different CSM sources varied largely and ranged from 1,856 to 2,730 kcal/kg dry matter (DM), 1,778 to 2,534 kcal/kg DM, and 42.08 to 60.47%, respectively. Several chemical parameters were identified to predict the DE and ME values of CSM, and the accuracy of prediction models were also tested. The best fit equations were: DE, kcal/kg DM = 670.14+31.12 CP+659.15 EE with R(2) = 0.82, RSD = 172.02, penergy varied substantially among different CSM sources, and that some prediction equations can be applied to predict DE and ME in CSM with an acceptable accuracy.

Can dimensions of national culture predict cross-national differences in medical communication?

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Meeuwesen, Ludwien; van den Brink-Muinen, Atie; Hofstede, Geert

2009-04-01

This study investigated at a country level how cross-national differences in medical communication can be understood from the first four of Hofstede's cultural dimensions, i.e. power distance, uncertainty avoidance, individualism/collectivism and masculinity/femininity, together with national wealth. A total of 307 general practitioners (GPs) and 5820 patients from Belgium, Estonia, Germany, Great Britain, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland participated in the study. Medical communication was videotaped and assessed using Roter's interaction analysis system (RIAS). Additional context information of physicians (gender, job satisfaction, risk-taking and belief of psychological influence on diseases) and patients (gender, health condition, diagnosis and medical encounter expectations) was gathered by using questionnaires. Countries differ considerably form each other in terms of culture dimensions. The larger a nation's power distance, the less room there is for unexpected information exchange and the shorter the consultations are. Roles are clearly described and fixed. The higher the level of uncertainty avoidance, the less attention is given to rapport building, e.g. less eye contact. In 'masculine' countries there is less instrumental communication in the medical interaction, which was contrary to expectations. In wealthy countries, more attention is given to psychosocial communication. The four culture dimensions, together with countries' wealth, contribute importantly to the understanding of differences in European countries' styles of medical communication. Their predictive power reaches much further than explanations along the north/south or east/west division of Europe. The understanding of these cross-national differences is a precondition for the prevention of intercultural miscommunication. Improved understanding may occur at microlevel in the medical encounter, as well as on macrolevel in pursuing more effective cooperation and

Minimotif Miner 3.0: database expansion and significantly improved reduction of false-positive predictions from consensus sequences.

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Mi, Tian; Merlin, Jerlin Camilus; Deverasetty, Sandeep; Gryk, Michael R; Bill, Travis J; Brooks, Andrew W; Lee, Logan Y; Rathnayake, Viraj; Ross, Christian A; Sargeant, David P; Strong, Christy L; Watts, Paula; Rajasekaran, Sanguthevar; Schiller, Martin R

2012-01-01

Minimotif Miner (MnM available at http://minimotifminer.org or http://mnm.engr.uconn.edu) is an online database for identifying new minimotifs in protein queries. Minimotifs are short contiguous peptide sequences that have a known function in at least one protein. Here we report the third release of the MnM database which has now grown 60-fold to approximately 300,000 minimotifs. Since short minimotifs are by their nature not very complex we also summarize a new set of false-positive filters and linear regression scoring that vastly enhance minimotif prediction accuracy on a test data set. This online database can be used to predict new functions in proteins and causes of disease.

Predicting return to work for lower back pain patients receiving worker's compensation.

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Lancourt, J; Kettelhut, M

1992-06-01

The results of a prospective study of 134 patients with lower back pain suggest that nonorganic factors are better predictors of return to work than organic findings. Patients who returned to work had fewer job, personal, or family related problems. There were no significant differences between patients who returned to work and those who did not when comparing myelograms, computed tomographic scans, or roentgenographs. The only significant difference in physical organic findings was for muscle atrophy. Patients who did not return to work had a statistically higher incidence rate of muscle atrophy. Length of time off from work was significantly related to outcome, but when patients were categorized according to time off the job, different factors predicted failure to return for patients off work for less than 6 months and patients off for more than 6 months. For patients off for less than 6 months, important predictors were a high Oswestry score, history of leg pain, family relocation, short tenure on the job, verbal magnification of pain, reports of moderate to severe pain on superficial palpation, and positive reaction to a "sham" sciatic tension test. None of these was a significant predictor for the group off for more than 6 months. For the group off work for more than 6 months, previous injuries, and stability of family living arrangements were among the significant predictors not significant for the group off less than 6 months. Using 21 factors selected from a larger group of 92 factors, three statistically significant (P less than or equal to 0.001) predictive measures were developed. These measures predicted return to work for the total sample, and for the two subgroups (off more than, or less than 6 months) more accurately than did the total set of 92 factors.

Gender differences in condom use prediction with Theory of Reasoned Action and Planned Behaviour: the role of self-efficacy and control.

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Muñoz-Silva, A; Sánchez-García, M; Nunes, C; Martins, A

2007-10-01

There is much evidence that demonstrates that programs and interventions based on the theoretical models of the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) have been effective in the prevention of the sexual transmission of HIV. The objective of this work is to compare the effectiveness of both models in the prediction of condom use, distinguishing two components inside the variable Perceived Behavioural Control of the TPB model: self-efficacy and control. The perspective of gender differences is also added. The study was carried out in a sample of 601 Portuguese and Spanish university students. The results show that the females have a higher average in all the TPB variables than males, except in the frequency of condom use: females request the use of condoms less frequently than males. On the other hand, for both females and males the TPB model predicts better condom-use intention than the TRA. However there are no differences between the two models in relation to the prediction of condom-use behaviour. For prediction of intention, the most outstanding variable among females is attitude, while among males they are subjective norm and self-efficacy. Finally, we analyze the implications of these data from a theoretical and practical point of view.

In silico prediction of sex-based differences in human susceptibility to cardiac ventricular tachyarrhythmias

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Pei-Chi eYang

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Sex-based differences in human susceptibility to cardiac ventricular tachyarrhythmias likely result from the emergent effects of multiple intersecting processes that fundamentally differ in male and female hearts. Included are measured differences in the genes encoding key cardiac ion channels and effects of sex steroid hormones to acutely modify electrical activity. At the genome scale, human females have recently been shown to have lower expression of genes encoding key cardiac repolarizing potassium currents and connexin43, the primary ventricular gap junction subunit. Human males and females also have distinct sex steroid hormones. Here, we developed mathematical models for male and female ventricular human heart cells by incorporating experimentally determined genomic differences and effects of sex steroid hormones into the O’Hara-Rudy model. These male and female model cells and tissues then were used to predict how various sex-based differences underlie arrhythmia risk. Genomic-based differences in ion channel expression were alone sufficient to determine longer female cardiac action potential durations (APD in both epicardial and endocardial cells compared to males. Subsequent addition of sex steroid hormones exacerbated these differences, as testosterone further shortened APDs, while estrogen and progesterone application resulted in disparate effects on APDs. Our results indicate that incorporation of experimentally determined genomic differences from human hearts in conjunction with sex steroid hormones are consistent with clinically observed differences in QT interval, T-wave shape and morphology, and critically, in the higher vulnerability of adult human females to Torsades de Pointes type arrhythmias. The model suggests that female susceptibility to alternans stems from longer female action potentials, while reentrant arrhythmia derives largely from sex-based differences in conduction play an important role in arrhythmia

[Different aluminum adjuvants significantly enhances the effect of immunization on Brucella Omp31].

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Qing, Rui; Xiang, Qingke; Liu, Zhongqi; Xiao, Fei; Yang, Fan

2018-02-01

Objective To investigate the effect of aluminum phosphate (AP) and aluminum hydroxide (AH) as adjuvants on Brucella outer membrane protein 31 (Omp31) in inducing humoral and cellular immune responses and immune protection. Methods AP and AH adjuvants were prepared and separately mixed with Brucella Omp31 protein to measure the adsorption rates. The AP- and AH-absorbed Omp31 protein were intraperitoneally injected into BLAB/c mice at 0, 2, and 4 weeks, and meanwhile, unabsorbed Omp31 protein and PBS were used as controls. The levels of serum IgG, IgG1, IgG2a and genital tract secretion sIgA were determined by ELISA at 0, 2, 4 and 6 weeks. Spleen cells were collected for culture at 6 weeks, and the cells were stimulated by Omp31 for 48 hours followed by the analysis of IFN-γ and IL-10 levels in the supernatants by ELISA, and the determination of lymphocyte proliferation by CCK-8 assay. The mice were challenged with Brucella at 6 weeks, and bacterial content in spleen tissue was determined 1 and 2 weeks later. Results AP and AH could absorb over 70% and 85% of the Omp31 protein, respectively, for solutions at all the tested concentrations. ELISA suggested that serum IgG, IgG1, IgG2a and genital tract sIgA levels peaked 2 weeks after the last immunization for both AP and AH groups, and antibody level was higher in the AP and AH groups than the control groups, and higher in the AH group than in the AP group. CCK-8 assay showed that the proliferating rate of lymphocytes induced by the AH group was significantly higher than that by the AP group, and the AH group also showed significantly higher IFN-γ level in the supernatant than the AP group, but no significant difference in IL-10 level. The AH group had remarkably lower bacterial load in the spleen than the AP group 2 weeks after challenged by Brucella 16M strain. Conclusion Both AP and AH adjuvants effectively enhanced immunogenicity and immune protection of the Brucella Omp31 protein, and AH was superior to AP in

Prediction of the strength of concrete radiation shielding based on LS-SVM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juncai, Xu; Qingwen, Ren; Zhenzhong, Shen

2015-01-01

Highlights: • LS-SVM was introduced for prediction of the strength of RSC. • A model for prediction of the strength of RSC was implemented. • The grid search algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of the LS-SVM. • The performance of LS-SVM in predicting the strength of RSC was evaluated. - Abstract: Radiation-shielding concrete (RSC) and conventional concrete differ in strength because of their distinct constituents. Predicting the strength of RSC with different constituents plays a vital role in radiation shielding (RS) engineering design. In this study, a model to predict the strength of RSC is established using a least squares-support vector machine (LS-SVM) through grid search algorithm. The algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the LS-SVM on the basis of traditional prediction methods for conventional concrete. The predicted results of the LS-SVM model are compared with the experimental data. The results of the prediction are stable and consistent with the experimental results. In addition, the studied parameters exhibit significant effects on the simulation results. Therefore, the proposed method can be applied in predicting the strength of RSC, and the predicted results can be adopted as an important reference for RS engineering design

Testing the Predictive Validity of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model.

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Jung, Hyesil; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

2018-03-01

Cumulative data on patient fall risk have been compiled in electronic medical records systems, and it is possible to test the validity of fall-risk assessment tools using these data between the times of admission and occurrence of a fall. The Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scores assessed during three time points of hospital stays were extracted and used for testing the predictive validity: (a) upon admission, (b) when the maximum fall-risk score from admission to falling or discharge, and (c) immediately before falling or discharge. Predictive validity was examined using seven predictive indicators. In addition, logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that significantly affect the occurrence of a fall. Among the different time points, the maximum fall-risk score assessed between admission and falling or discharge showed the best predictive performance. Confusion or disorientation and having a poor ability to rise from a sitting position were significant risk factors for a fall.

Gender differences in (metacognitive and motivational-emotional factors of reading comprehension

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Svjetlana Kolić-Vehovec

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of our study was to establish, from the aspect of gender, the degree to which reading comprehension is connected with students' academic achievement, potential gender differences between (metacognitive and motivational-emotional factors of reading comprehension, and to identify the most important predictors of reading comprehension for exploratory and narrative texts. The results of study, which included 380 Slovenian and Croatian students with the average age of 10;6 years, showed that: (i reading comprehension significantly determines academic achievement regardless of students' gender; (ii there are significant gender differences in most of the factors of reading comprehension (girls summarize texts better, have more metacognitive knowledge of reading, show greater reading interest, feel more competent for reading and in general feel better while reading; (iii the predictive value of cognitive, motivational, and emotional predictors differ for exploratory and narrative texts (for exploratory texts metacognitive factors have the greatest predictive value; for narrative texts motivatonal-emotional factors have the greatest predictive value for boys, and metacognitive factors for girls.

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.

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Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A; Johannesson, Magnus

2015-12-15

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.

Superfund explanation of significant difference for the record of decision (EPA Region 3): Westinghouse Elevator Company Plant, Gettysburg, PA, August 3, 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-09-01

The document explains significant differences to the remedy selected in the Record of Decision (ROD) for the Site signed by the Regional Administrator on June 30, 1992 (PB93-963911) for Operable Unit 1. The Significant Difference between the remedy presented in the June 30, 1992 ROD and the changes to the ROD that will be implemented are explained.

Ethnic differences in antepartum glucose values that predict postpartum dysglycemia and neonatal macrosomia.

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Ajala, Olubukola; Chik, Constance

2018-03-31

Gestational diabetes (GDM) occurs more often in women from certain ethnic groups and is also associated with fetal macrosomia. In this study, we investigated the ability of a gestational diabetes screening test (GDS), the 2 h 75 g-Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in predicting postpartum dysglycemia and fetal macrosomia in women of Caucasian, Filipino, Chinese and South-Asian descent. 848 women diagnosed with carbohydrate intolerance in pregnancy who completed a 2 h 75 g- OGTT within 6 months postpartum, were included in the study. Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analysis was used to test the ability of antepartum GDS, HbA1c and OGTT in predicting postpartum hyperglycemia, type 2 diabetes (T2D) and neonatal macrosomia (birth weight >4000 g). 20.2% had postpartum hyperglycemia while 3.8% had T2D. Those with postpartum dysglycemia were more likely to be non-Caucasian (South-Asian > Filipino > Chinese), have higher antepartum glucose values, require insulin during pregnancy and have cesarean births. Of HbA1c and the antepartum glucose values, a fasting glucose of ≥5.25 mmol/L was predictive of fetal macrosomia in Caucasians. 1 h glucose of ≥11.05 mmol/L was predictive of postpartum hyperglycemia, while 2 h glucose of ≥9.75 mmol/L was predictive of T2D; ethnicity influenced the predictive ability of these tests. Ethnicity influences the ability of antepartum glucose and HbA1c to predict the risk of macrosomia and postpartum dysglycemia. This information will help detect those most at risk of T2D. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of different satellite soil moisture products on the predictions of a continuous distributed hydrological model

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Laiolo, P.; Gabellani, S.; Campo, L.; Silvestro, F.; Delogu, F.; Rudari, R.; Pulvirenti, L.; Boni, G.; Fascetti, F.; Pierdicca, N.; Crapolicchio, R.; Hasenauer, S.; Puca, S.

2016-06-01

The reliable estimation of hydrological variables in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the flood predictions and hydrological cycle description. Nowadays remotely sensed data can offer a chance to improve hydrological models especially in environments with scarce ground based data. The aim of this work is to update the state variables of a physically based, distributed and continuous hydrological model using four different satellite-derived data (three soil moisture products and a land surface temperature measurement) and one soil moisture analysis to evaluate, even with a non optimal technique, the impact on the hydrological cycle. The experiments were carried out for a small catchment, in the northern part of Italy, for the period July 2012-June 2013. The products were pre-processed according to their own characteristics and then they were assimilated into the model using a simple nudging technique. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge were tested against observations. The analysis showed a general improvement of the model discharge predictions, even with a simple assimilation technique, for all the assimilation experiments; the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient was increased from 0.6 (relative to the model without assimilation) to 0.7, moreover, errors on discharge were reduced up to the 10%. An added value to the model was found in the rainfall season (autumn): all the assimilation experiments reduced the errors up to the 20%. This demonstrated that discharge prediction of a distributed hydrological model, which works at fine scale resolution in a small basin, can be improved with the assimilation of coarse-scale satellite-derived data.

Adult age differences in predicting memory performance: the effects of normative information and task experience.

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McDonald-Miszczak, L; Hunter, M A; Hultsch, D F

1994-03-01

Two experiments addressed the effects of task information and experience on younger and older adults' ability to predict their memory for words. The first study examined the effects of normative task information on subjects' predictions for 30-word lists across three trials. The second study looked at the effects of making predictions and recalling either an easy (15) or a difficult (45) word list prior to making predictions and recalling a moderately difficult (30) word list. The results from both studies showed that task information and experience affected subjects' predictions and that elderly adults predicted their performance more accurately than younger adults.

Clinical Significance of the Prognostic Nutritional Index for Predicting Short- and Long-Term Surgical Outcomes After Gastrectomy: A Retrospective Analysis of 7781 Gastric Cancer Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jee Youn; Kim, Hyoung-Il; Kim, You-Na; Hong, Jung Hwa; Alshomimi, Saeed; An, Ji Yeong; Cheong, Jae-Ho; Hyung, Woo Jin; Noh, Sung Hoon; Kim, Choong-Bai

2016-05-01

To evaluate the predictive and prognostic significance of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in a large cohort of gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy.Assessing a patient's immune and nutritional status, PNI has been reported as a predictive marker for surgical outcomes in various types of cancer.We retrospectively reviewed data from a prospectively maintained database of 7781 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy from January 2001 to December 2010 at a single center. From this data, we analyzed clinicopathologic characteristics, PNI, and short- and long-term surgical outcomes for each patient. We used the PNI value for the 10th percentile (46.70) of the study cohort as a cut-off for dividing patients into low and high PNI groups.Regarding short-term outcomes, multivariate analysis showed a low PNI (odds ratio [OR] = 1.505, 95% CI = 1.212-1.869, P cancer recurrence.

Identification of sequence motifs significantly associated with antisense activity

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Peek Andrew S

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Predicting the suppression activity of antisense oligonucleotide sequences is the main goal of the rational design of nucleic acids. To create an effective predictive model, it is important to know what properties of an oligonucleotide sequence associate significantly with antisense activity. Also, for the model to be efficient we must know what properties do not associate significantly and can be omitted from the model. This paper will discuss the results of a randomization procedure to find motifs that associate significantly with either high or low antisense suppression activity, analysis of their properties, as well as the results of support vector machine modelling using these significant motifs as features. Results We discovered 155 motifs that associate significantly with high antisense suppression activity and 202 motifs that associate significantly with low suppression activity. The motifs range in length from 2 to 5 bases, contain several motifs that have been previously discovered as associating highly with antisense activity, and have thermodynamic properties consistent with previous work associating thermodynamic properties of sequences with their antisense activity. Statistical analysis revealed no correlation between a motif's position within an antisense sequence and that sequences antisense activity. Also, many significant motifs existed as subwords of other significant motifs. Support vector regression experiments indicated that the feature set of significant motifs increased correlation compared to all possible motifs as well as several subsets of the significant motifs. Conclusion The thermodynamic properties of the significantly associated motifs support existing data correlating the thermodynamic properties of the antisense oligonucleotide with antisense efficiency, reinforcing our hypothesis that antisense suppression is strongly associated with probe/target thermodynamics, as there are no enzymatic

Predictability and context determine differences in conflict monitoring between adolescence and adulthood.

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Chmielewski, Witold X; Roessner, Veit; Beste, Christian

2015-10-01

The ability to link contextual information to actions is an important aspect of conflict monitoring and response selection. These mechanisms depend on medial prefrontal networks. Although these areas undergo a protracted development from adolescence to adulthood, it has remained elusive how the influence of contextual information on conflict monitoring is modulated between adolescence and adulthood. Using event-related potentials (ERPs) and source localization techniques we show that the ability to link contextual information to actions is altered and that the predictability of upcoming events is an important factor to consider in this context. In adolescents, conflict monitoring functions are not as much modulated by predictability factors as in adults. It seems that adults exhibit a stronger anticipation of upcoming events than adolescents. This results in disadvantages for adults when the upcoming context is not predictable. In adolescents, problems to predict upcoming events therefore turn out to be beneficial. Two cognitive-neurophysiological factors are important for this: The first factor is related to altered conflict monitoring functions associated with modulations of neural activity in the medial frontal cortex. The second factor is related to altered perceptual processing of target stimuli associated with modulations of neural activity in parieto-occipital areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Subgroups of Paediatric Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia Might Differ Significantly in Genetic Predisposition to Asparaginase Hypersensitivity.

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Nóra Kutszegi

Full Text Available L-asparaginase (ASP is a key element in the treatment of paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL. However, hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs to ASP are major challenges in paediatric patients. Our aim was to investigate genetic variants that may influence the risk to Escherichia coli-derived ASP hypersensitivity. Sample and clinical data collection was carried out from 576 paediatric ALL patients who were treated according to protocols from the Berlin-Frankfurt-Münster Study Group. A total of 20 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in GRIA1 and GALNT10 genes were genotyped. Patients with GRIA1 rs4958351 AA/AG genotype showed significantly reduced risk to ASP hypersensitivity compared to patients with GG genotype in the T-cell ALL subgroup (OR = 0.05 (0.01-0.26; p = 4.70E-04, while no such association was found in pre-B-cell ALL. In the medium risk group two SNPs of GRIA1 (rs2055083 and rs707176 were associated significantly with the occurrence of ASP hypersensitivity (OR = 0.21 (0.09-0.53; p = 8.48E-04 and OR = 3.02 (1.36-6.73; p = 6.76E-03, respectively. Evaluating the genders separately, however, the association of rs707176 with ASP HSRs was confined only to females. Our results suggest that genetic variants of GRIA1 might influence the risk to ASP hypersensitivity, but subgroups of patients can differ significantly in this respect.

Microstructure-based constitutive modeling of TRIP steel: Prediction of ductility and failure modes under different loading conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, K.S.; Liu, W.N.; Sun, X.; Khaleel, M.A.

2009-01-01

We study the ultimate ductility and failure modes of a commercial transformation-induced plasticity (TRIP) 800 steel under different loading conditions with an advanced microstructure-based finite-element analysis. The representative volume element (RVE) for the TRIP 800 under examination is developed based on an actual microstructure obtained from scanning electron microscopy. The ductile failure of the TRIP 800 under different loading conditions is predicted in the form of plastic strain localization without any prescribed failure criteria for the individual phases. This indicates that the microstructure-level inhomogeneity of the various constituent phases can be the key factor influencing the final ductility of the TRIP 800 steel under different loading conditions. Comparisons of the computational results with experimental measurements suggest that the microstructure-based modeling approach accurately captures the overall macroscopic behavior of the TRIP 800 steel under different loading and boundary conditions.

Significance of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance on ThinPrep papanicolaou smears.

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Eltabbakh, G H; Lipman, J N; Mount, S L; Morgan, A

2000-10-01

The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and risk factors predictive of dysplasia among women seen in a gynecologic oncology service with the cytologic diagnosis of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) on Papanicolaou smears obtained by the ThinPrep method. Patients with ASCUS ThinPrep Papanicolaou smears seen at the Division of Gynecologic Oncology, University of Vermont, between 1997 and 1999 were identified. The cytologic smears were reviewed and subtyped into reactive or suggestive of squamous intraepithelial lesion (SIL). The charts of these patients were reviewed and the following information was abstracted: age, gravidity, parity, menopausal status, use of hormonal replacement therapy, smoking, history of pelvic cancer, history of radiation therapy, history of abnormal Papanicolaou smear and its treatment, history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, and follow-up information including results of repeat Papanicolaou smears, colposcopy, and biopsies. The prevalence of dysplasia was calculated. The demographic features of women with ASCUS, reactive, were compared with those with ASCUS, SIL, using a two-sample t test, chi(2), and Fisher's exact test. Risk factors predictive of dysplasia were calculated using the odds ratio and the 95% confidence interval. P ASCUS on ThinPrep Papanicolaou smear were identified; 63 patients had ASCUS, reactive, and 63 patients had ASCUS, SIL. The demographic features of both groups were similar. The overall prevalence of dysplasia was 15.9% and was significantly higher among women with ASCUS, SIL, than among women with ASCUS, reactive (25.4% versus 6.4%, P = 0.003). The type of ASCUS cytology (reactive versus SIL), smoking, and history of HPV were significant risk factors for dysplasia (P = 0.003, 0.037, and 0. 042, respectively). The prevalence of dysplasia among women seen in a gynecologic oncology service with ASCUS cytology on ThinPrep Papanicolaou smears is 15.9%. Women with ASCUS favor

Metabolism of oxycodone in human hepatocytes from different age groups and prediction of hepatic plasma clearance

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Timo eKorjamo

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Oxycodone is commonly used to treat severe pain in adults and children. It is extensively metabolized in the liver in adults, but the maturation of metabolism is not well understood. Our aim was to study the metabolism of oxycodone in cryopreserved human hepatocytes from different age groups (3 days, 2 and 5 months, 4 years, adult pool and predict hepatic plasma clearance of oxycodone using these data. Oxycodone (0.1, 1 and 10 µM was incubated with hepatocytes for 4 hours, and 1 µM oxycodone also with CYP3A inhibitor ketoconazole (1 µM. Oxycodone and noroxycodone concentrations were determined at several time points with liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. In vitro clearance of oxycodone was used to predict hepatic plasma clearance, using the well-stirred model and published physiological parameters. Noroxycodone was the major metabolite in all batches and ketoconazole inhibited the metabolism markedly in most cases. A clear correlation between in vitro oxycodone clearance and CYP3A4 activity was observed. The predicted hepatic plasma clearances were typically much lower than the published median total plasma clearance from pharmacokinetic studies. In general, this in vitro to in vivo extrapolation method provides valuable information on the maturation of oxycodone metabolism that can be utilized in the design of clinical pharmacokinetic studies in infants and young children.

Prediction of FAD binding sites in electron transport proteins according to efficient radial basis function networks and significant amino acid pairs.

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Le, Nguyen-Quoc-Khanh; Ou, Yu-Yen

2016-07-30

Cellular respiration is a catabolic pathway for producing adenosine triphosphate (ATP) and is the most efficient process through which cells harvest energy from consumed food. When cells undergo cellular respiration, they require a pathway to keep and transfer electrons (i.e., the electron transport chain). Due to oxidation-reduction reactions, the electron transport chain produces a transmembrane proton electrochemical gradient. In case protons flow back through this membrane, this mechanical energy is converted into chemical energy by ATP synthase. The convert process is involved in producing ATP which provides energy in a lot of cellular processes. In the electron transport chain process, flavin adenine dinucleotide (FAD) is one of the most vital molecules for carrying and transferring electrons. Therefore, predicting FAD binding sites in the electron transport chain is vital for helping biologists understand the electron transport chain process and energy production in cells. We used an independent data set to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, which had an accuracy of 69.84 %. We compared the performance of the proposed method in analyzing two newly discovered electron transport protein sequences with that of the general FAD binding predictor presented by Mishra and Raghava and determined that the accuracy of the proposed method improved by 9-45 % and its Matthew's correlation coefficient was 0.14-0.5. Furthermore, the proposed method enabled reducing the number of false positives significantly and can provide useful information for biologists. We developed a method that is based on PSSM profiles and SAAPs for identifying FAD binding sites in newly discovered electron transport protein sequences. This approach achieved a significant improvement after we added SAAPs to PSSM features to analyze FAD binding proteins in the electron transport chain. The proposed method can serve as an effective tool for predicting FAD binding sites in electron

Pripper: prediction of caspase cleavage sites from whole proteomes

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Salmi Jussi

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Caspases are a family of proteases that have central functions in programmed cell death (apoptosis and inflammation. Caspases mediate their effects through aspartate-specific cleavage of their target proteins, and at present almost 400 caspase substrates are known. There are several methods developed to predict caspase cleavage sites from individual proteins, but currently none of them can be used to predict caspase cleavage sites from multiple proteins or entire proteomes, or to use several classifiers in combination. The possibility to create a database from predicted caspase cleavage products for the whole genome could significantly aid in identifying novel caspase targets from tandem mass spectrometry based proteomic experiments. Results Three different pattern recognition classifiers were developed for predicting caspase cleavage sites from protein sequences. Evaluation of the classifiers with quality measures indicated that all of the three classifiers performed well in predicting caspase cleavage sites, and when combining different classifiers the accuracy increased further. A new tool, Pripper, was developed to utilize the classifiers and predict the caspase cut sites from an arbitrary number of input sequences. A database was constructed with the developed tool, and it was used to identify caspase target proteins from tandem mass spectrometry data from two different proteomic experiments. Both known caspase cleavage products as well as novel cleavage products were identified using the database demonstrating the usefulness of the tool. Pripper is not restricted to predicting only caspase cut sites, but it gives the possibility to scan protein sequences for any given motif(s and predict cut sites once a suitable cut site prediction model for any other protease has been developed. Pripper is freely available and can be downloaded from http://users.utu.fi/mijopi/Pripper. Conclusions We have developed Pripper, a tool for

Influence of Different Yield Loci on Failure Prediction with Damage Models

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Heibel, S.; Nester, W.; Clausmeyer, T.; Tekkaya, A. E.

2017-09-01

Advanced high strength steels are widely used in the automotive industry to simultaneously improve crash performance and reduce the car body weight. A drawback of these multiphase steels is their sensitivity to damage effects and thus the reduction of ductility. For that reason the Forming Limit Curve is only partially suitable for this class of steels. An improvement in failure prediction can be obtained by using damage mechanics. The objective of this paper is to comparatively review the phenomenological damage model GISSMO and the Enhanced Lemaitre Damage Model. GISSMO is combined with three different yield loci, namely von Mises, Hill48 and Barlat2000 to investigate the influence of the choice of the plasticity description on damage modelling. The Enhanced Lemaitre Model is used with Hill48. An inverse parameter identification strategy for a DP1000 based on stress-strain curves and optical strain measurements of shear, uniaxial, notch and (equi-)biaxial tension tests is applied to calibrate the models. A strong dependency of fracture strains on the choice of yield locus can be observed. The identified models are validated on a cross-die cup showing ductile fracture with slight necking.

A comparison of prognostic significance of strong ion gap (SIG) with other acid-base markers in the critically ill: a cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Kwok M; Lan, Norris S H; Williams, Teresa A; Harahsheh, Yusra; Chapman, Andrew R; Dobb, Geoffrey J; Magder, Sheldon

2016-01-01

This cohort study compared the prognostic significance of strong ion gap (SIG) with other acid-base markers in the critically ill. The relationships between SIG, lactate, anion gap (AG), anion gap albumin-corrected (AG-corrected), base excess or strong ion difference-effective (SIDe), all obtained within the first hour of intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and the hospital mortality of 6878 patients were analysed. The prognostic significance of each acid-base marker, both alone and in combination with the Admission Mortality Prediction Model (MPM0 III) predicted mortality, were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Of the 6878 patients included in the study, 924 patients (13.4 %) died after ICU admission. Except for plasma chloride concentrations, all acid-base markers were significantly different between the survivors and non-survivors. SIG (with lactate: AUROC 0.631, confidence interval [CI] 0.611-0.652; without lactate: AUROC 0.521, 95 % CI 0.500-0.542) only had a modest ability to predict hospital mortality, and this was no better than using lactate concentration alone (AUROC 0.701, 95 % 0.682-0.721). Adding AG-corrected or SIG to a combination of lactate and MPM0 III predicted risks also did not substantially improve the latter's ability to differentiate between survivors and non-survivors. Arterial lactate concentrations explained about 11 % of the variability in the observed mortality, and it was more important than SIG (0.6 %) and SIDe (0.9 %) in predicting hospital mortality after adjusting for MPM0 III predicted risks. Lactate remained as the strongest predictor for mortality in a sensitivity multivariate analysis, allowing for non-linearity of all acid-base markers. The prognostic significance of SIG was modest and inferior to arterial lactate concentration for the critically ill. Lactate concentration should always be considered regardless whether physiological, base excess or physical-chemical approach

Are predictive equations for estimating resting energy expenditure accurate in Asian Indian male weightlifters?

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Mini Joseph

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background: The accuracy of existing predictive equations to determine the resting energy expenditure (REE of professional weightlifters remains scarcely studied. Our study aimed at assessing the REE of male Asian Indian weightlifters with indirect calorimetry and to compare the measured REE (mREE with published equations. A new equation using potential anthropometric variables to predict REE was also evaluated. Materials and Methods: REE was measured on 30 male professional weightlifters aged between 17 and 28 years using indirect calorimetry and compared with the eight formulas predicted by Harris–Benedicts, Mifflin-St. Jeor, FAO/WHO/UNU, ICMR, Cunninghams, Owen, Katch-McArdle, and Nelson. Pearson correlation coefficient, intraclass correlation coefficient, and multiple linear regression analysis were carried out to study the agreement between the different methods, association with anthropometric variables, and to formulate a new prediction equation for this population. Results: Pearson correlation coefficients between mREE and the anthropometric variables showed positive significance with suprailiac skinfold thickness, lean body mass (LBM, waist circumference, hip circumference, bone mineral mass, and body mass. All eight predictive equations underestimated the REE of the weightlifters when compared with the mREE. The highest mean difference was 636 kcal/day (Owen, 1986 and the lowest difference was 375 kcal/day (Cunninghams, 1980. Multiple linear regression done stepwise showed that LBM was the only significant determinant of REE in this group of sportspersons. A new equation using LBM as the independent variable for calculating REE was computed. REE for weightlifters = −164.065 + 0.039 (LBM (confidence interval −1122.984, 794.854]. This new equation reduced the mean difference with mREE by 2.36 + 369.15 kcal/day (standard error = 67.40. Conclusion: The significant finding of this study was that all the prediction equations

Efficacy and predictive value of clinical stage in non-surgical patients with esophageal cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xiao; Wang Guiqi; He Shun

2014-01-01

Objective: To investigate the efficacy and predictive value of clinical stage in non-surgical patients with esophageal cancer (EC). Methods: A retrospective study was conducted in 358 EC patients who underwent radical surgery in our hospital from April 2003 to October 2010 and who had preoperative work-up including endoscopic esophageal ultrasound (EUS), esophagoscopy, thoracic CT scans,and contrast esophagography and had detailed information on postoperative pathological stages. The predictive value of preoperative clinical T/N stage based on EUS + CT for postoperative pathological stage was analyzed. The disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed according to the UICC TNM classification (2002/ 2009) and the clinical stage based on imaging findings. Results: The median follow-up was 47 months.A total of 305 (85.2%) of all patients were analyzed by clinical stage based on EUS + CT.Among them, the predictive value of clinical T stage for pathological T stage was 0-88.6%, highest (88.6%) for T1 stage and lowest for T4 stage. The predictive value of clinical N stage (N 0 /N1) was 62.5-100%. The significant differences in OS and DFS rates based on both 2002 and 2009 UICC TNM classifications were noted (P=0.000 and 0.000). There were significant differences in OS between stage groups, except the comparison between two stage Ⅳ patients and other groups, according to 2002 UICC TNM classification. There were usually insignificant differences in OS between stage groups, according to 2009 UICC TNM classification. For the 305 patients staged clinically based on EUS and CT according to 2002 UICC TNM classification, significant differences in OS and DFS rates were noted (P=0.000 and 0.000). Conclusions: Imaging modalities show good predictive value for N stage (N0/N1),even though they cannot accurately provide the number of metastatic lymph nodes. The clinical stage based on EUS + CT can effectively predict the prognosis of non-surgical EC patients

Using bench press load to predict upper body exercise loads in physically active individuals.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Del P; Ngo, Kwan-Lung; Tse, Michael A; Smith, Andrew W

2013-01-01

This study investigated whether loads for assistance exercises of the upper body can be predicted from the loads of the bench press exercise. Twenty-nine physically active collegiate students (age: 22.6 ± 2.5; weight training experience: 2.9 ± 2.1 years; estimated 1RM bench press: 54.31 ± 14.60 kg; 1RM: body weight ratio: 0.80 ± 0.22; BMI: 22.7 ± 2.1 kg·m(-2)) were recruited. The 6RM loads for bench press, barbell bicep curl, overhead dumbbell triceps extension, hammer curl and dumbbell shoulder press were measured. Test-retest reliability for the 5 exercises as determined by Pearson product moment correlation coefficient was very high to nearly perfect (0.82-0.98, p bench press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises (r ranged from 0.80 to 0.93, p bench press load was a significant (R(2) range from 0.64 to 0.86, p Bench press load (0.28) + 6.30 kg, (b) Barbell biceps curl = Bench press load (0.33) + 6.20 kg, (c) Overhead triceps extension = Bench press load (0.33) - 0.60 kg, and (d) Dumbbell shoulder press = Bench press load (0.42) + 5.84 kg. The difference between the actual load and the predicted load using the four equations ranged between 6.52% and 8.54%, such difference was not significant. Fitness professionals can use the 6RM bench press load as a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises. Key pointsThe bench press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises.No significant differences were found between the actual load and the predicted load in the four equations.6RM bench press load can be a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises.