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Sample records for significantly predicted crash-risk

  1. Using cognitive status to predict crash risk: blazing new trails?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staplin, Loren; Gish, Kenneth W; Sifrit, Kathy J

    2014-02-01

    A computer-based version of an established neuropsychological paper-and-pencil assessment tool, the Trail-Making Test, was applied with approximately 700 drivers aged 70 years and older in offices of the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration. This was a volunteer sample that received a small compensation for study participation, with an assurance that their license status would not be affected by the results. Analyses revealed that the study sample was representative of Maryland older drivers with respect to age and indices of prior driving safety. The relationship between drivers' scores on the Trail-Making Test and prospective crash experience was analyzed using a new outcome measure that explicitly takes into account error responses as well as correct responses, the error-compensated completion time. For the only reliable predictor of crash risk, Trail-Making Test Part B, this measure demonstrated a modest gain in specificity and was a more significant predictor of future safety risk than the simple time-to-completion measure. Improved specificity and the potential for autonomous test administration are particular advantages of this measure for use with large populations, in settings such as health care or driver licensing. © 2013.

  2. Predicting Free Flow Speed and Crash Risk of Bicycle Traffic Flow Using Artificial Neural Network Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Xu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Free flow speed is a fundamental measure of traffic performance and has been found to affect the severity of crash risk. However, the previous studies lack analysis and modelling of impact factors on bicycles’ free flow speed. The main focus of this study is to develop multilayer back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN models for the prediction of free flow speed and crash risk on the separated bicycle path. Four different models with considering different combinations of input variables (e.g., path width, traffic condition, bicycle type, and cyclists’ characteristics were developed. 459 field data samples were collected from eleven bicycle paths in Hangzhou, China, and 70% of total samples were used for training, 15% for validation, and 15% for testing. The results show that considering the input variables of bicycle types and characteristics of cyclists will effectively improve the accuracy of the prediction models. Meanwhile, the parameters of bicycle types have more significant effect on predicting free flow speed of bicycle compared to those of cyclists’ characteristics. The findings could contribute for evaluation, planning, and management of bicycle safety.

  3. Multinational Corporations and Stock Price Crash Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony May

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A nascent literature in finance and accounting on tail risk in individual stock returns concludes that bad news hoarding by corporate managers engenders sudden, extreme crashes in a firm’s stock price when the bad news is eventually made public. This literature finds that firm-specific crash risk is higher among firms with more severe asymmetric information and agency problems. A hitherto disjointed literature spanning the fields of international business, finance, and accounting suggests that geographic dispersion in a firm’s operations, and especially dispersion across different countries, gives rise to organizational complexities and greater costs of monitoring that can exacerbate asymmetric information and agency problems. Motivated by the confluence of arguments and findings from these two strands of literature, this paper examines whether stock price crash risk is higher among multinational firms than domestic firms. Using a large sample of U.S. headquartered firms during 1987-2011, we find robust evidence that multinational firms are significantly more likely to crash than domestic firms. Moreover, we show that the difference in crash risk between multinational and domestic firms is most acute among firms with weaker corporate governance mechanisms, including weaker shareholder rights, less independent boards, and less stable institutional ownership. Our analysis indicates that stronger monitoring from each of these three governance mechanisms significantly attenuates the positive relation between crash risk and multinationality. Our findings are robust to the use of alternative measures of crash risk and to controlling for known determinants of crash risk identified in prior studies. Our study offers new insights that should hold value for scholars and market participants interested in understanding the implications of heighted agency problems that multinational firms are likely to encounter and scholars and market participants

  4. Distracted Driving Raises Crash Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this issue Health Capsule Distracted Driving Raises Crash Risk En español Send us your comments Video technology ... distracted driving, especially among new drivers, raises the risk for car crashes and near crashes. The study ...

  5. Time-varying Crash Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Feunoua, Bruno; Jeon, Yoontae

    We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on re...

  6. Religion and stock price crash risk: Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenfei Li

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates whether religious traditions influence firm-specific crash risk in China. Using a sample of A-share listed firms from 2003 to 2013, we provide evidence that the more intense the religious environment, the lower the stock price crash risk, implying that religion plays an important role in Chinese corporate governance. Further, we find that (1 religion affects stock price crash risk by reducing earnings management and the management perk problem; (2 different religions have different effects, and Taoism, in particular, is unrelated to crash risk; and (3 the effects of religion are more pronounced with higher quality corporate governance and a stronger legal environment. Religion constrains the management agency problem, thus reducing stock price crash risk in China. Our paper enriches the literature on stock price crash risk and religion, and on new economic geography.

  7. Crash risk factors for interstate large trucks in North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teoh, Eric R; Carter, Daniel L; Smith, Sarah; McCartt, Anne T

    2017-09-01

    Provide an updated examination of risk factors for large truck involvements in crashes resulting in injury or death. A matched case-control study was conducted in North Carolina of large trucks operated by interstate carriers. Cases were defined as trucks involved in crashes resulting in fatal or non-fatal injury, and one control truck was matched on the basis of location, weekday, time of day, and truck type. The matched-pair odds ratio provided an estimate of the effect of various driver, vehicle, or carrier factors. Out-of-service (OOS) brake violations tripled the risk of crashing; any OOS vehicle defect increased crash risk by 362%. Higher historical crash rates (fatal, injury, or all crashes) of the carrier were associated with increased risk of crashing. Operating on a short-haul exemption increased crash risk by 383%. Antilock braking systems reduced crash risk by 65%. All of these results were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Other safety technologies also showed estimated benefits, although not statistically significant. With the exception of the finding that short-haul exemption is associated with increased crash risk, results largely bolster what is currently known about large truck crash risk and reinforce current enforcement practices. Results also suggest vehicle safety technologies can be important in lowering crash risk. This means that as safety technology continues to penetrate the fleet, whether from voluntary usage or government mandates, reductions in large truck crashes may be achieved. Practical application: Results imply that increased enforcement and use of crash avoidance technologies can improve the large truck crash problem. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Conscientious personality and young drivers’ crash risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ehsani, Johnathon P.; Li, Kaigang; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Tree-McGrath, Cheyenne Fox; Perlus, Jessamyn; O’Brien, Fearghal; Klauer, Sheila G.

    2015-01-01

    Personality characteristics are associated with many risk behaviors. However, the relationship between personality traits, risky driving behavior, and crash risk is poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between personality, risky driving behavior, and crashes and near-crashes, using naturalistic driving research methods. Method: Participants' driving exposure, kinematic risky driving (KRD), high-risk secondary task engagement, and the frequency of crashes...

  9. Novice drivers' risky driving behavior, risk perception, and crash risk: findings from the DRIVE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivers, Rebecca; Senserrick, Teresa; Boufous, Soufiane; Stevenson, Mark; Chen, Huei-Yang; Woodward, Mark; Norton, Robyn

    2009-09-01

    We explored the risky driving behaviors and risk perceptions of a cohort of young novice drivers and sought to determine their associations with crash risk. Provisional drivers aged 17 to 24 (n = 20 822) completed a detailed questionnaire that included measures of risk perception and behaviors; 2 years following recruitment, survey data were linked to licensing and police-reported crash data. Poisson regression models that adjusted for multiple confounders were created to explore crash risk. High scores on questionnaire items for risky driving were associated with a 50% increased crash risk (adjusted relative risk = 1.51; 95% confidence interval = 1.25, 1.81). High scores for risk perception (poorer perceptions of safety) were also associated with increased crash risk in univariate and multivariate models; however, significance was not sustained after adjustment for risky driving. The overrepresentation of youths in crashes involving casualties is a significant public health issue. Risky driving behavior is strongly linked to crash risk among young drivers and overrides the importance of risk perceptions. Systemwide intervention, including licensing reform, is warranted.

  10. Conscientious personality and young drivers’ crash risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehsani, Johnathon P.; Li, Kaigang; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Tree-McGrath, Cheyenne Fox; Perlus, Jessamyn; O’Brien, Fearghal; Klauer, Sheila G.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Personality characteristics are associated with many risk behaviors. However, the relationship between personality traits, risky driving behavior, and crash risk is poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between personality, risky driving behavior and crashes and near-crashes, using naturalistic driving research methods. Method Participants’ driving exposure, kinematic risky driving (KRD), high-risk secondary task engagement, and the frequency of crashes and near-crashes (CNC) were assessed over the first 18 months of licensure using naturalistic driving methods. A personality survey (NEO-Five Factor Inventory) was administered at baseline. The association between personality characteristics, KRD rate, secondary task engagement rate and CNC rate was estimated using a linear regression model. Mediation analysis was conducted to examine if participants’ KRD rate or secondary task engagement rate mediated the relationship between personality and CNC. Data were collected as part of the Naturalistic Teen Driving Study. Results Conscientiousness was marginally negatively associated with CNC (path c = −0.034, p = .09) and both potential mediators KRD (path a = −0.040, p = .09) and secondary task engagement while driving (path a = −0.053, p = .03). KRD, but not secondary task engagement, was found to mediate (path b = 0.376, p = .02) the relationship between conscientiousness and CNC (path c’ = −0.025, p = .20). Conclusions Using objective measures of driving behavior and a widely used personality construct, these findings present a causal pathway through which personality and risky driving are associated with CNC. Specifically, more conscientious teenage drivers engaged in fewer risky driving maneuvers, suffered fewer CNC. Practical Applications Part of the variability in crash-risk observed among newly licensed teenage drivers can be explained by personality. Parents and driving instructors may take teenage

  11. Conscientious personality and young drivers' crash risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehsani, Johnathon P; Li, Kaigang; Simons-Morton, Bruce G; Fox Tree-McGrath, Cheyenne; Perlus, Jessamyn G; O'Brien, Fearghal; Klauer, Sheila G

    2015-09-01

    Personality characteristics are associated with many risk behaviors. However, the relationship between personality traits, risky driving behavior, and crash risk is poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between personality, risky driving behavior, and crashes and near-crashes, using naturalistic driving research methods. Participants' driving exposure, kinematic risky driving (KRD), high-risk secondary task engagement, and the frequency of crashes and near-crashes (CNC) were assessed over the first 18months of licensure using naturalistic driving methods. A personality survey (NEO-Five Factor Inventory) was administered at baseline. The association between personality characteristics, KRD rate, secondary task engagement rate, and CNC rate was estimated using a linear regression model. Mediation analysis was conducted to examine if participants' KRD rate or secondary task engagement rate mediated the relationship between personality and CNC. Data were collected as part of the Naturalistic Teen Driving Study. Conscientiousness was marginally negatively associated with CNC (path c=-0.034, p=.09) and both potential mediators KRD (path a=-0.040, p=.09) and secondary task engagement while driving (path a=-0.053, p=.03). KRD, but not secondary task engagement, was found to mediate (path b=0.376, p=.02) the relationship between conscientiousness and CNC (path c'=-0.025, p=.20). Using objective measures of driving behavior and a widely used personality construct, these findings present a causal pathway through which personality and risky driving are associated with CNC. Specifically, more conscientious teenage drivers engaged in fewer risky driving maneuvers, and suffered fewer CNC. Part of the variability in crash risk observed among newly licensed teenage drivers can be explained by personality. Parents and driving instructors may take teenage drivers' personality into account when providing guidance, and establishing norms and

  12. Predicting significant torso trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nirula, Ram; Talmor, Daniel; Brasel, Karen

    2005-07-01

    Identification of motor vehicle crash (MVC) characteristics associated with thoracoabdominal injury would advance the development of automatic crash notification systems (ACNS) by improving triage and response times. Our objective was to determine the relationships between MVC characteristics and thoracoabdominal trauma to develop a torso injury probability model. Drivers involved in crashes from 1993 to 2001 within the National Automotive Sampling System were reviewed. Relationships between torso injury and MVC characteristics were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the model to current ACNS models. There were a total of 56,466 drivers. Age, ejection, braking, avoidance, velocity, restraints, passenger-side impact, rollover, and vehicle weight and type were associated with injury (p < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (83.9) was significantly greater than current ACNS models. We have developed a thoracoabdominal injury probability model that may improve patient triage when used with ACNS.

  13. Assessing crash risk considering vehicle interactions with trucks using point detector data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyun, Kyung Kate; Jeong, Kyungsoo; Tok, Andre; Ritchie, Stephen G

    2018-03-12

    Trucks have distinct driving characteristics in general traffic streams such as lower speeds and limitations in acceleration and deceleration. As a consequence, vehicles keep longer headways or frequently change lane when they follow a truck, which is expected to increase crash risk. This study introduces several traffic measures at the individual vehicle level to capture vehicle interactions between trucks and non-trucks and analyzed how the measures affect crash risk under different traffic conditions. The traffic measures were developed using headways obtained from Inductive Loop Detectors (ILDs). In addition, a truck detection algorithm using a Gaussian Mixture (GM) model was developed to identify trucks and to estimate truck exposure from ILD data. Using the identified vehicle types from the GM model, vehicle interaction metrics were categorized into three groups based on the combination of leading and following vehicle types. The effects of the proposed traffic measures on crash risk were modeled in two different cases of prior- and non-crash using a case-control approach utilizing a conditional logistic regression. Results showed that the vehicle interactions between the leading and following vehicle types were highly associated with crash risk, and further showed different impacts on crash risk by traffic conditions. Specifically, crashes were more likely to occur when a truck following a non-truck had shorter average headway but greater headway variance in heavy traffic while a non-truck following a truck had greater headway variance in light traffic. This study obtained meaningful conclusions that vehicle interactions involved with trucks were significantly related to the crash likelihood rather than the measures that estimate average traffic condition such as total volume or average headway of the traffic stream. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Cell phone use and traffic crash risk: a culpability analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asbridge, Mark; Brubacher, Jeff R; Chan, Herbert

    2013-02-01

    The use of a cell phone or communication device while driving is illegal in many jurisdictions, yet evidence evaluating the crash risk associated with cell phone use in naturalistic settings is limited. This article aims to determine whether cell phone use while driving increases motor vehicle crash culpability. Method Drivers involved in crashes where police reported cell phone use (n = 312) and propensity matched drivers (age, sex, suspect alcohol/drug impairment, crash type, date, time of day, geographical location) without cell phone use (n = 936) were drawn from Insurance Corporation of British Columbia Traffic Accident System data. A standardized scoring tool, modified to account for Canadian driving conditions, was used to determine crash culpability from police reports on all drivers from the crashes. The association between crash culpability and cell phone use was determined, with additional subgroup analyses based on crash severity, driver characteristics and type of licence. A comparison of crashes with vs without cell phones revealed an odds ratio of 1.70 (95% confidence interval 1.22-2.36; P = 0.002). This association was consistent after adjustment for matching variables and other covariates. Subgroup analyses demonstrated an association for male drivers, unimpaired drivers, injured and non-injured drivers, and for drivers aged between 26 and 65 years. Crash culpability was found to be significantly associated with cell phone use by drivers, increasing the odds of a culpable crash by 70% compared with drivers who did not use a cell phone. This increased risk was particularly high for middle-aged drivers.

  15. Crash risk analysis during fog conditions using real-time traffic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yina; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

    2018-05-01

    This research investigates the changes of traffic characteristics and crash risks during fog conditions. Using real-time traffic flow and weather data at two regions in Florida, the traffic patterns at the fog duration were compared to the traffic patterns at the clear duration. It was found that the average 5-min speed and the average 5-min volume were prone to decreasing during fog. Based on previous studies, a "Crash Risk Increase Indicator (CRII)" was proposed to explore the differences of crash risk between fog and clear conditions. A binary logistic regression model was applied to link the increase of crash risks with traffic flow characteristics. The results suggested that the proposed indicator worked well in evaluating the increase of crash risk under fog condition. It was indicated that the crash risk was prone to increase at ramp vicinities in fog conditions. Also, the average 5-min volume during fog and the lane position are important factors for crash risk increase. The differences between the regions were also explored in this study. The results indicated that the locations with heavier traffic or locations at the lanes that were closest to the median in Region 2 were more likely to observe an increase in crash risks in fog conditions. It is expected that the proposed indicator can help identify the dangerous traffic status under fog conditions and then proper ITS technologies can be implemented to enhance traffic safety when the visibility declines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Cell phone use while driving and attributable crash risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Charles M; Braitman, Keli A; Lund, Adrian K

    2010-10-01

    Prior research has estimated that crash risk is 4 times higher when talking on a cell phone versus not talking. The objectives of this study were to estimate the extent to which drivers talk on cell phones while driving and to compute the implied annual number of crashes that could have been avoided if driver cell phone use were restricted. A national survey of approximately 1200 U.S. drivers was conducted. Respondents were asked to approximate the amount of time spent driving during a given day, number of cell phone calls made or received, and amount of driving time spent talking on a cell phone. Population attributable risk (PAR) was computed for each combination of driver gender, driver age, day of week, and time of day. These were multiplied by the corresponding crash counts to estimate the number of crashes that could have been avoided. On average, drivers were talking on cell phones approximately 7 percent of the time while driving. Rates were higher on weekdays (8%), in the afternoon and evening (8%), and for drivers younger than 30 (16%). Based on these use rates, restricting cell phones while driving could have prevented an estimated 22 percent (i.e., 1.3 million) of the crashes in 2008. Although increased rates of cell phone use while driving should be leading to increased crash rates, crash rates have been declining. Reasons for this paradox are unclear. One possibility is that the increase in cell phone use and crash risk due to cell phone use have been overestimated. Another possibility is that cell phone use has supplanted other driving distractions that were similarly hazardous.

  17. The Effect of Managerial Ability on Future Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soo Yeon Park

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of managerial ability on subsequent stock price crash risk using listed firm data in Korea. Compared to some financially advanced countries, the influence of managers is particularly more powerful in Korea, as ownership and management are not effectively separate in most Korean firms. In addition, we considered the effect of large business groups called Chaebol, which is family-run conglomerates with unique corporate governance system that hugely affect the Korean economy. It is important to recognize determinants of the stock price crash risk which would result in doubt on going concern to enhance the company’s sustainable management. Hence, this study focuses on the managerial ability as one of the main factors of the stock price crash risk. We use the measures of firm-specific stock price crash risk based on Hutton et al. (2009. Managerial ability is estimated through a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA and tobit regressions following Demerjian et al. (2012. From the empirical tests, there is a negative association between managerial ability and stock price crash risk. This suggests that managers with a higher ability release more voluntary disclosure to signal their ability, ultimately lowering the subsequent stock price crash risk. We also find that firms in large business groups, Chaebol, weaken the negative association between managerial ability and subsequent stock price crash risk.

  18. Impact of connected vehicles on mitigating secondary crash risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Reducing the risk of secondary crashes is a key goal for effective traffic incident management. However, only few countermeasures have been established in practices to achieve the goal. This is mainly due to the stochastic nature of both primary and secondary crashes. Given the emerging connected vehicle (CV technologies, it is highly likely that CVs will soon be able to communicate with each other through the ad-hoc wireless vehicular network. Information sharing among vehicles is deemed to change traffic operations and allow motorists for more proactive actions. Motorists who receive safety messages can be motivated to approach queues and incident sites with more caution. As a result of the improved situational awareness, the risk of secondary crashes is expected to be reduced. To examine whether this expectation is achievable or not, this study aims to assess the impact of connectivity on the risk of secondary crashes. A simulation-based modeling framework that enables vehicle-to-vehicle communication module was developed. Since crashes cannot be directly simulated in micro-simulation, the use of surrogate safety measures was proposed to capture vehicular conflicts as a proxy for secondary crash risk upstream of a primary crash site. An experimental study was conducted based on the developed simulation modeling framework. The results show that the use of connected vehicles can be a viable way to reduce the risk of secondary crashes. Their impact is expected to change with an increasing market penetration of connected vehicles.

  19. Transferability and robustness of real-time freeway crash risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shew, Cameron; Pande, Anurag; Nuworsoo, Cornelius

    2013-09-01

    This study examines the data from single loop detectors on northbound (NB) US-101 in San Jose, California to estimate real-time crash risk assessment models. The classification tree and neural network based crash risk assessment models developed with data from NB US-101 are applied to data from the same freeway, as well as to the data from nearby segments of the SB US-101, NB I-880, and SB I-880 corridors. The performance of crash risk assessment models on these nearby segments is the focus of this research. The model applications show that it is in fact possible to use the same model for multiple freeways, as the underlying relationships between traffic data and crash risk remain similar. The framework provided here may be helpful to authorities for freeway segments with newly installed traffic surveillance apparatuses, since the real-time crash risk assessment models from nearby freeways with existing infrastructure would be able to provide a reasonable estimate of crash risk. The robustness of the model output is also assessed by location, time of day, and day of week. The analysis shows that on some locations the models may require further learning due to higher than expected false positive (e.g., the I-680/I-280 interchange on US-101 NB) or false negative rates. The approach for post-processing the results from the model provides ideas to refine the model prior to or during the implementation. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. THE ROLE OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY DISCLOSURE TOWARD COMPANY STOCK PRICE CRASH RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Handiyono M.Y.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the influence of corporate social responsibility disclosure to company stock price crash risk. If socially responsible companies are committed to high standards of information transparency and do not hide bad news, they will have a low risk of crash. However, if the manager reports CSR to distract the stakeholder from bad news, the CSR will be associated with a high risk of the company stock crash. The study was conducted at Indonesian manufacturing companies registered on the IDX (BEI for the 2010-2015 period Hypothesis testing technique used a multiple regression analysis. The results showed that activities of the corporate social responsibility disclosure by the company did not have a significant relationship to the risk of the company stock price crash. This study also found that companies that conduct and report social responsibility activities simultaneously have a low risk of crashes on their company's stock price but cannot prove the relationship between the two. The implication is that social accountability reports in Indonesia are still limited to reports only and have not been considered as anything that can contribute to add value to the company or that may prevent the company from unethical behavior.

  1. The Real World Significance of Performance Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardos, Zachary A.; Wang, Qing Yang; Trivedi, Shubhendu

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, the educational data mining and user modeling communities have been aggressively introducing models for predicting student performance on external measures such as standardized tests as well as within-tutor performance. While these models have brought statistically reliable improvement to performance prediction, the real world…

  2. Comparison of moped, scooter and motorcycle crash risk and crash severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackman, Ross A; Haworth, Narelle L

    2013-08-01

    The increased popularity of mopeds and motor scooters in Australia and elsewhere in the last decade has contributed substantially to the greater use of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) as a whole. As the exposure of mopeds and scooters has increased, so too has the number of reported crashes involving those PTW types, but there is currently little research comparing the safety of mopeds and, particularly, larger scooters with motorcycles. This study compared the crash risk and crash severity of motorcycles, mopeds and larger scooters in Queensland, Australia. Comprehensive data cleansing was undertaken to separate motorcycles, mopeds and larger scooters in police-reported crash data covering the five years to 30 June 2008. The crash rates of motorcycles (including larger scooters) and mopeds in terms of registered vehicles were similar over this period, although the moped crash rate showed a stronger downward trend. However, the crash rates in terms of distance travelled were nearly four times higher for mopeds than for motorcycles (including larger scooters). More comprehensive distance travelled data is needed to confirm these findings. The overall severity of moped and scooter crashes was significantly lower than motorcycle crashes but an ordered probit regression model showed that crash severity outcomes related to differences in crash characteristics and circumstances, rather than differences between PTW types per se. Greater motorcycle crash severity was associated with higher (>80km/h) speed zones, horizontal curves, weekend, single vehicle and nighttime crashes. Moped crashes were more severe at night and in speed zones of 90km/h or more. Larger scooter crashes were more severe in 70km/h zones (than 60km/h zones) but not in higher speed zones, and less severe on weekends than on weekdays. The findings can be used to inform potential crash and injury countermeasures tailored to users of different PTW types. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Data development technical support document for the aircraft crash risk analysis methodology (ACRAM) standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, C.Y.; Glaser, R.E.; Mensing, R.W.; Lin, T.; Haley, T.A.; Barto, A.B.; Stutzke, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    The Aircraft Crash Risk Analysis Methodology (ACRAM) Panel has been formed by the US Department of Energy Office of Defense Programs (DOE/DP) for the purpose of developing a standard methodology for determining the risk from aircraft crashes onto DOE ground facilities. In order to accomplish this goal, the ACRAM panel has been divided into four teams, the data development team, the model evaluation team, the structural analysis team, and the consequence team. Each team, consisting of at least one member of the ACRAM plus additional DOE and DOE contractor personnel, specializes in the development of the methodology assigned to that team. This report documents the work performed by the data development team and provides the technical basis for the data used by the ACRAM Standard for determining the aircraft crash frequency. This report should be used to provide the generic data needed to calculate the aircraft crash frequency into the facility under consideration as part of the process for determining the aircraft crash risk to ground facilities as given by the DOE Standard Aircraft Crash Risk Assessment Methodology (ACRAM). Some broad guidance is presented on how to obtain the needed site-specific and facility specific data but this data is not provided by this document

  4. Driving difficulties of brain-injured drivers in reaction to high-crash-risk simulated road events: a question of impaired divided attention?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cyr, Andrée-Ann; Stinchcombe, Arne; Gagnon, Sylvain; Marshall, Shawn; Hing, Malcolm Man-Son; Finestone, Hillel

    2009-05-01

    This study examined the role of impaired divided attention and speed of processing in traumatic brain injury (TBI) drivers in high-crash-risk simulated road events. A total of 17 TBI drivers and 16 healthy participants were exposed to four challenging simulated roadway events to which behavioral reactions were recorded. Participants were also asked to perform a dual task during portions of the driving task, and TBI individuals were administered standard measures of divided attention and reaction time. Results indicated that the TBI group crashed significantly more than controls (p < .05) and that dual-task performance correlated significantly with crash rate (r = .58, p = .05).

  5. In-depth analysis of drivers' merging behavior and rear-end crash risks in work zone merging areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Xue, Shan; Yang, Ying; Yan, Xuedong; Qu, Xiaobo

    2015-04-01

    This study investigates the drivers' merging behavior and the rear-end crash risk in work zone merging areas during the entire merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. With the merging traffic data from a work zone site in Singapore, a mixed probit model is developed to describe the merging behavior, and two surrogate safety measures including the time to collision (TTC) and deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) are adopted to compute the rear-end crash risk between the merging vehicle and its neighboring vehicles. Results show that the merging vehicle has a bigger probability of completing a merging maneuver quickly under one of the following situations: (i) the merging vehicle moves relatively fast; (ii) the merging lead vehicle is a heavy vehicle; and (iii) there is a sizable gap in the adjacent through lane. Results indicate that the rear-end crash risk does not monotonically increase as the merging vehicle speed increases. The merging vehicle's rear-end crash risk is also affected by the vehicle type. There is a biggest increment of rear-end crash risk if the merging lead vehicle belongs to a heavy vehicle. Although the reduced remaining distance to work zone could urge the merging vehicle to complete a merging maneuver quickly, it might lead to an increased rear-end crash risk. Interestingly, it is found that the rear-end crash risk could be generally increased over the elapsed time after the merging maneuver being triggered. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The impacts of multiple rest-break periods on commercial truck driver's crash risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen; Xie, Yuanchang

    2014-02-01

    Driver fatigue has been a major contributing factor to fatal commercial truck crashes, which accounted for about 10% of all fatal motor vehicle crashes that happened between 2009 and 2011. Commercial truck drivers' safety performance can deteriorate easily due to fatigue caused by long driving hours and irregular working schedules. To ensure safety, truck drivers often use off-duty time and short rest breaks during a trip to recover from fatigue. This study thoroughly investigates the impacts of off-duty time prior to a trip and short rest breaks on commercial truck safety by using Cox proportional hazards model and Andersen-Gill model. It is found that increasing total rest-break duration can consistently reduce fatigue-related crash risk. Similarly, taking more rest breaks can help to reduce crash risk. The results suggest that two rest breaks are generally considered enough for a 10-hour trip, as three or more rest breaks may not further reduce crash risk substantially. Also, the length of each rest break does not need to be very long and 30min is usually adequate. In addition, this study investigates the safety impacts of when to take rest breaks. It is found that taking rest breaks too soon after a trip starts will cause the rest breaks to be less effective. The findings of this research can help policy makers and trucking companies better understand the impacts of multiple rest-break periods and develop more effective rules to improve the safety of truck drivers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  7. Crash risk and aberrant driving behaviors among bus drivers: the role of personality and attitudes towards traffic safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallia, Luca; Lazuras, Lambros; Violani, Cristiano; Lucidi, Fabio

    2015-06-01

    Several studies have shown that personality traits and attitudes toward traffic safety predict aberrant driving behaviors and crash involvement. However, this process has not been adequately investigated in professional drivers, such as bus drivers. The present study used a personality-attitudes model to assess whether personality traits predicted aberrant self-reported driving behaviors (driving violations, lapses, and errors) both directly and indirectly, through the effects of attitudes towards traffic safety in a large sample of bus drivers. Additionally, the relationship between aberrant self-reported driving behaviors and crash risk was also assessed. Three hundred and one bus drivers (mean age=39.1, SD=10.7 years) completed a structured and anonymous questionnaire measuring personality traits, attitudes toward traffic safety, self-reported aberrant driving behaviors (i.e., errors, lapses, and traffic violations), and accident risk in the last 12 months. Structural equation modeling analysis revealed that personality traits were associated to aberrant driving behaviors both directly and indirectly. In particular altruism, excitement seeking, and normlessness directly predicted bus drivers' attitudes toward traffic safety which, in turn, were negatively associated with the three types of self-reported aberrant driving behaviors. Personality traits relevant to emotionality directly predicted bus drivers' aberrant driving behaviors, without any mediation of attitudes. Finally, only self-reported violations were related to bus drivers' accident risk. The present findings suggest that the hypothesized personality-attitudes model accounts for aberrant driving behaviors in bus drivers, and provide the empirical basis for evidence-based road safety interventions in the context of public transport. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Relationship of Near-Crash/Crash Risk to Time Spent on a Cell Phone While Driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Charles M; Klauer, Sheila G; McClafferty, Julie A; Guo, Feng

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine in a naturalistic driving setting the dose-response relationship between cell phone usage while driving and risk of a crash or near crash. How is the increasing use of cell phones by drivers associated with overall near-crash/crash risk (i.e., during driving times both on and off the phone)? Day-to-day driving behavior of 105 volunteer subjects was monitored over a period of 1 year. A random sample was selected comprised of 4 trips from each month that each driver was in the study, and in-vehicle video was used to classify driver behavior. The proportion of driving time spent using a cell phone was estimated for each 3-month period and correlated with overall crash and near-crash rates for each period. Thus, it was possible to test whether changes in an individual driver's cell phone use over time were associated with changes in overall near-crash/crash risk. Drivers in the study spent 11.7% of their driving time interacting with a cell phone, primarily talking on the phone (6.5%) or simply holding the phone in their hand or lap (3.7%). The risk of a near-crash/crash event was approximately 17% higher when the driver was interacting with a cell phone, due primarily to actions of reaching for/answering/dialing, which nearly triples risk (relative risk = 2.84). However, the amount of driving time spent interacting with a cell phone did not affect a driver's overall near-crash/crash risk. Vehicle speeds within 6 s of the beginning of each call on average were 5-6 mph lower than speeds at other times. Results of this naturalistic driving study are consistent with the observation that increasing cell phone use in the general driving population has not led to increased crash rates. Although cell phone use can be distracting and crashes have occurred during this distraction, overall crash rates appear unaffected by changes in the rate of cell phone use, even for individual drivers. Drivers compensate somewhat for the distraction

  9. Sleep deficiency and motor vehicle crash risk in the general population: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlieb, Daniel J; Ellenbogen, Jeffrey M; Bianchi, Matt T; Czeisler, Charles A

    2018-03-20

    Insufficient sleep duration and obstructive sleep apnea, two common causes of sleep deficiency in adults, can result in excessive sleepiness, a well-recognized cause of motor vehicle crashes, although their contribution to crash risk in the general population remains uncertain. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relation of sleep apnea, sleep duration, and excessive sleepiness to crash risk in a community-dwelling population. This was a prospective observational cohort study nested within the Sleep Heart Health Study, a community-based study of the health consequences of sleep apnea. The participants were 1745 men and 1456 women aged 40-89 years. Sleep apnea was measured by home polysomnography and questionnaires were used to assess usual sleep duration and daytime sleepiness. A follow-up questionnaire 2 years after baseline ascertained driving habits and motor vehicle crash history. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relation of sleep apnea and sleep duration at baseline to the occurrence of motor vehicle crashes during the year preceding the follow-up visit, adjusting for relevant covariates. The population-attributable fraction of motor vehicle crashes was estimated from the sample proportion of motor vehicle crashes and the adjusted odds ratios for motor vehicle crash within each exposure category. Among 3201 evaluable participants, 222 (6.9%) reported at least one motor vehicle crash during the prior year. A higher apnea-hypopnea index (p vehicle crashes was 10% due to sleep apnea and 9% due to sleep duration less than 7 hours. Sleep deficiency due to either sleep apnea or insufficient sleep duration is strongly associated with motor vehicle crashes in the general population, independent of self-reported excessive sleepiness.

  10. Risk factors of mobile phone use while driving in Queensland: Prevalence, attitudes, crash risk perception, and task-management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oviedo-Trespalacios, Oscar; King, Mark; Haque, Md Mazharul; Washington, Simon

    2017-01-01

    Distracted driving is one of the most significant human factor issues in transport safety. Mobile phone interactions while driving may involve a multitude of cognitive and physical resources that result in inferior driving performance and reduced safety margins. The current study investigates characteristics of usage, risk factors, compensatory strategies in use and characteristics of high-frequency offenders of mobile phone use while driving. A series of questions were administered to drivers in Queensland (Australia) using an on-line questionnaire. A total of 484 drivers (34.9% males and 49.8% aged 17-25) participated anonymously. At least one of every two motorists surveyed reported engaging in distracted driving. Drivers were unable to acknowledge the increased crash risk associated with answering and locating a ringing phone in contrast to other tasks such as texting/browsing. Attitudes towards mobile phone usage were more favourable for talking than texting or browsing. Lowering the driving speed and increasing the distance from the vehicle in front were the most popular task-management strategies for talking and texting/browsing while driving. On the other hand, keeping the mobile phone low (e.g. in the driver's lap or on the passenger seat) was the favourite strategy used by drivers to avoid police fines for both talking and texting/browsing. Logistic regression models were fitted to understand differences in risk factors for engaging in mobile phone conversations and browsing/texting while driving. For both tasks, exposure to driving, driving experience, driving history (offences and crashes), and attitudes were significant predictors. Future mobile phone prevention efforts would benefit from development of safe attitudes and increasing risk literacy. Enforcement of mobile phone distraction should be re-engineered, as the use of task-management strategies to evade police enforcement seems to dilute its effect on the prevention of this behaviour. Some

  11. Risk factors of mobile phone use while driving in Queensland: Prevalence, attitudes, crash risk perception, and task-management strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Oviedo-Trespalacios

    Full Text Available Distracted driving is one of the most significant human factor issues in transport safety. Mobile phone interactions while driving may involve a multitude of cognitive and physical resources that result in inferior driving performance and reduced safety margins. The current study investigates characteristics of usage, risk factors, compensatory strategies in use and characteristics of high-frequency offenders of mobile phone use while driving. A series of questions were administered to drivers in Queensland (Australia using an on-line questionnaire. A total of 484 drivers (34.9% males and 49.8% aged 17-25 participated anonymously. At least one of every two motorists surveyed reported engaging in distracted driving. Drivers were unable to acknowledge the increased crash risk associated with answering and locating a ringing phone in contrast to other tasks such as texting/browsing. Attitudes towards mobile phone usage were more favourable for talking than texting or browsing. Lowering the driving speed and increasing the distance from the vehicle in front were the most popular task-management strategies for talking and texting/browsing while driving. On the other hand, keeping the mobile phone low (e.g. in the driver's lap or on the passenger seat was the favourite strategy used by drivers to avoid police fines for both talking and texting/browsing. Logistic regression models were fitted to understand differences in risk factors for engaging in mobile phone conversations and browsing/texting while driving. For both tasks, exposure to driving, driving experience, driving history (offences and crashes, and attitudes were significant predictors. Future mobile phone prevention efforts would benefit from development of safe attitudes and increasing risk literacy. Enforcement of mobile phone distraction should be re-engineered, as the use of task-management strategies to evade police enforcement seems to dilute its effect on the prevention of this

  12. Using naturalistic driving data to explore the association between traffic safety-related events and crash risk at driver level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Kun-Feng; Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan; Jovanis, Paul P

    2014-11-01

    There has been considerable research conducted over the last 40 years using traffic safety-related events to support road safety analyses. Dating back to traffic conflict studies from the 1960s these observational studies of driver behavior have been criticized due to: poor quality data; lack of available and useful exposure measures linked to the observations; the incomparability of self-reported safety-related events; and, the difficulty in assessing culpability for safety-related events. This study seeks to explore the relationships between driver characteristics and traffic safety-related events, and between traffic safety-related events and crash involvement while mitigating some of those limitations. The Virginia Tech Transportation Institute 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study dataset, in which the participants' vehicles were instrumented with various cameras and sensors during the study period, was used for this study. The study data set includes 90 drivers observed for 12-13 months driving. This study focuses on single vehicle run-off-road safety-related events only, including 14 crashes and 182 safety-related events (30 near crashes, and 152 crash-relevant incidents). Among the findings are: (1) drivers under age 25 are significantly more likely to be involved in safety-related events and crashes; and (2) significantly positive correlations exist between crashes, near crashes, and crash-relevant incidents. Although there is still much to learn about the factors affecting the positive correlation between safety-related events and crashes, a Bayesian multivariate Poisson log-normal model is shown to be useful to quantify the associations between safety-related events and crash risk while controlling for driver characteristics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Methodology for determining motorcycle operator crash risk and alcohol impairment. Vol. 1, Synthesis report on alternative approaches with priorities for research

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-04-01

    Alcohol-involvement continues to be a prominent factor in motorcycle crashes. Automobile-driver drinking and driving has been researched extensively, and the relationship between drivers' blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) and crash risk is well-unde...

  14. Changes in crash risk following re-timing of traffic signal change intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retting, Richard A; Chapline, Janella F; Williams, Allan F

    2002-03-01

    More than I million motor vehicle crashes occur annually at signalized intersections in the USA. The principal method used to prevent crashes associated with routine changes in signal indications is employment of a traffic signal change interval--a brief yellow and all-red period that follows the green indication. No universal practice exists for selecting the duration of change intervals, and little is known about the influence of the duration of the change interval on crash risk. The purpose of this study was to estimate potential crash effects of modifying the duration of traffic signal change intervals to conform with values associated with a proposed recommended practice published by the Institute of Transportation Engineers. A sample of 122 intersections was identified and randomly assigned to experimental and control groups. Of 51 eligible experimental sites, 40 (78%) needed signal timing changes. For the 3-year period following implementation of signal timing changes, there was an 8% reduction in reportable crashes at experimental sites relative to those occurring at control sites (P = 0.08). For injury crashes, a 12% reduction at experimental sites relative to those occurring at control sites was found (P = 0.03). Pedestrian and bicycle crashes at experimental sites decreased 37% (P = 0.03) relative to controls. Given these results and the relatively low cost of re-timing traffic signals, modifying the duration of traffic signal change intervals to conform with values associated with the Institute of Transportation Engineers' proposed recommended practice should be strongly considered by transportation agencies to reduce the frequency of urban motor vehicle crashes.

  15. Risk factors of mobile phone use while driving in Queensland: Prevalence, attitudes, crash risk perception, and task-management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Mark; Haque, Md. Mazharul; Washington, Simon

    2017-01-01

    Distracted driving is one of the most significant human factor issues in transport safety. Mobile phone interactions while driving may involve a multitude of cognitive and physical resources that result in inferior driving performance and reduced safety margins. The current study investigates characteristics of usage, risk factors, compensatory strategies in use and characteristics of high-frequency offenders of mobile phone use while driving. A series of questions were administered to drivers in Queensland (Australia) using an on-line questionnaire. A total of 484 drivers (34.9% males and 49.8% aged 17–25) participated anonymously. At least one of every two motorists surveyed reported engaging in distracted driving. Drivers were unable to acknowledge the increased crash risk associated with answering and locating a ringing phone in contrast to other tasks such as texting/browsing. Attitudes towards mobile phone usage were more favourable for talking than texting or browsing. Lowering the driving speed and increasing the distance from the vehicle in front were the most popular task-management strategies for talking and texting/browsing while driving. On the other hand, keeping the mobile phone low (e.g. in the driver’s lap or on the passenger seat) was the favourite strategy used by drivers to avoid police fines for both talking and texting/browsing. Logistic regression models were fitted to understand differences in risk factors for engaging in mobile phone conversations and browsing/texting while driving. For both tasks, exposure to driving, driving experience, driving history (offences and crashes), and attitudes were significant predictors. Future mobile phone prevention efforts would benefit from development of safe attitudes and increasing risk literacy. Enforcement of mobile phone distraction should be re-engineered, as the use of task-management strategies to evade police enforcement seems to dilute its effect on the prevention of this behaviour. Some

  16. Predictive Maintenance (PdM) Centralization for Significant Energy Savings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Dale

    2010-09-15

    Cost effective predictive maintenance (PdM) technologies and basic energy calculations can mine energy savings form processes or maintenance activities. Centralizing and packaging this information correctly empowers facility maintenance and reliability professionals to build financial justification and support for strategies and personnel to weather global economic downturns and competition. Attendees will learn how to: Systematically build a 'pilot project' for applying PdM and tracking systems; Break down a typical electrical bill to calculate energy savings; Use return on investment (ROI) calculations to identify the best and highest value options, strategies and tips for substantiating your energy reduction maintenance strategies.

  17. Early signs that predict later haemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engür, Defne; Deveci, Murat; Türkmen, Münevver K

    2016-03-01

    Our aim was to determine the optimal cut-off values, sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic power of 12 echocardiographic parameters on the second day of life to predict subsequent ductal patency. We evaluated preterm infants, born at ⩽32 weeks of gestation, starting on their second day of life, and they were evaluated every other day until ductal closure or until there were clinical signs of re-opening. We measured transductal diameter; pulmonary arterial diastolic flow; retrograde aortic diastolic flow; pulsatility index of the left pulmonary artery and descending aorta; left atrium and ventricle/aortic root ratio; left ventricular output; left ventricular flow velocity time integral; mitral early/late diastolic flow; and superior caval vein diameter and flow as well as performed receiver operating curve analysis. Transductal diameter (>1.5 mm); pulmonary arterial diastolic flow (>25.6 cm/second); presence of retrograde aortic diastolic flow; ductal diameter by body weight (>1.07 mm/kg); left pulmonary arterial pulsatility index (⩽0.71); and left ventricle to aortic root ratio (>2.2) displayed high sensitivity and specificity (p0.9). Parameters with moderate sensitivity and specificity were as follows: left atrial to aortic root ratio; left ventricular output; left ventricular flow velocity time integral; and mitral early/late diastolic flow ratio (p0.05) had low diagnostic value. Left pulmonary arterial pulsatility index, left ventricle/aortic root ratio, and ductal diameter by body weight are useful adjuncts offering a broader outlook for predicting ductal patency.

  18. The real economic effects of cross-delisting from the United States: Evidence on post-operating performance, financial constraints and stock crash risk =

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Sonia Maria da Silva Faria Nogueira da

    In this study we examine the economic consequences for firms that cross-delisted from a U.S. stock exchange. Using a sample of foreign firms that cross-delisted from U.S. exchange markets from 2000 to 2012, we investigate the long-term performance, the level of financial constraints, and the likelihood of stock price crashes after the cross-delisting event. We document several new findings as follows: i) cross-delisted firms have less growth opportunities, in the long-run, than their cross-listed peers; ii) after the adoption of Rule 12h-6 of 2007, cross-delisted firms exhibit a significant decline in operating performance; iii) cross-delisted firms underperform their cross-listed peers as they experience negative average abnormal returns, especially in the post-cross-delisting period; iv) cross-delisted firms face higher financial constraints post-delisting than their cross-listed counterparts, and also tend to save more cash out of cash flows; v) the increase in financial constraints post-cross-delisting seems to be primarily driven by informational frictions that constrain access to external financing, which are stronger for firms from countries with weaker investor protection and less developed capital markets; vi) cross-delisted firms experience a significant increase in crash risk associated with earnings management in the post-delisting period relative to a control sample of cross-listed firms, and this effect is more pronounced for delisted firms from countries with weaker investor protection and poor quality of their information environment; vii) cross-delisted firms that engage in earnings management to inflate reported earnings prior to a seasoned equity offering are more likely to a subsequent stock price crash.

  19. Tracking progress in teenage driver crash risk in the United States since the advent of graduated driver licensing programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCartt, Anne T; Teoh, Eric R

    2015-06-01

    This study examined U.S. teenagers' crash rates since 1996, when the first graduated driver licensing (GDL) program in the United State was implemented. Passenger vehicle driver crash involvement rates for 16-19 and 30-59 (middle-aged) year-olds were examined, using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System, Census Bureau, and National Household Travel Surveys. Per capita fatal and police-reported crash rates in 2012 were lower for 16year-olds than for middle-aged drivers but older teenagers' rates were higher. Mileage-based fatal and police-reported crash rates in 2008 were higher for teenagers than for middle-aged drivers and higher for 16-17year-olds than for older teenagers. In 1996-2012, teenagers' per capita fatal and police-reported crash rates declined sharply, especially for 16-17year-olds, and more so than for middle-aged drivers. Substantial declines also occurred in teenagers' mileage-based fatal and police-reported crash rates from 1995-96 to 2008, generally more so than for middle-aged drivers. Regarding factors in fatal crashes in 1996 and 2012, proportions of young teenagers' crashes occurring at night and with multiple teenage passengers declined, more so than among older teenagers and middle-aged drivers. The proportion of fatally injured drivers who had been drinking declined for teenagers but changed little for middle-aged drivers. Improvements were not apparent in rates of driver errors or speeding among teenage drivers in fatal crashes. Teenage drivers' crash risk dropped during the period of implementation of GDL laws, especially fatal crash types targeted by GDL. However, teenagers' crash risk remains high, and important crash factors remain unaddressed by GDL. Although this study was not designed to examine the role of GDL, the results are consistent with the increased presence of such laws. More gains are achievable if states strengthen their laws. Copyright © 2015

  20. Model training across multiple breeding cycles significantly improves genomic prediction accuracy in rye (Secale cereale L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auinger, Hans-Jürgen; Schönleben, Manfred; Lehermeier, Christina; Schmidt, Malthe; Korzun, Viktor; Geiger, Hartwig H; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Gordillo, Andres; Wilde, Peer; Bauer, Eva; Schön, Chris-Carolin

    2016-11-01

    Genomic prediction accuracy can be significantly increased by model calibration across multiple breeding cycles as long as selection cycles are connected by common ancestors. In hybrid rye breeding, application of genome-based prediction is expected to increase selection gain because of long selection cycles in population improvement and development of hybrid components. Essentially two prediction scenarios arise: (1) prediction of the genetic value of lines from the same breeding cycle in which model training is performed and (2) prediction of lines from subsequent cycles. It is the latter from which a reduction in cycle length and consequently the strongest impact on selection gain is expected. We empirically investigated genome-based prediction of grain yield, plant height and thousand kernel weight within and across four selection cycles of a hybrid rye breeding program. Prediction performance was assessed using genomic and pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP and PBLUP). A total of 1040 S 2 lines were genotyped with 16 k SNPs and each year testcrosses of 260 S 2 lines were phenotyped in seven or eight locations. The performance gap between GBLUP and PBLUP increased significantly for all traits when model calibration was performed on aggregated data from several cycles. Prediction accuracies obtained from cross-validation were in the order of 0.70 for all traits when data from all cycles (N CS  = 832) were used for model training and exceeded within-cycle accuracies in all cases. As long as selection cycles are connected by a sufficient number of common ancestors and prediction accuracy has not reached a plateau when increasing sample size, aggregating data from several preceding cycles is recommended for predicting genetic values in subsequent cycles despite decreasing relatedness over time.

  1. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  2. Exploring the significance of human mobility patterns in social link prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alharbi, Basma Mohammed

    2014-01-01

    Link prediction is a fundamental task in social networks. Recently, emphasis has been placed on forecasting new social ties using user mobility patterns, e.g., investigating physical and semantic co-locations for new proximity measure. This paper explores the effect of in-depth mobility patterns. Specifically, we study individuals\\' movement behavior, and quantify mobility on the basis of trip frequency, travel purpose and transportation mode. Our hybrid link prediction model is composed of two modules. The first module extracts mobility patterns, including travel purpose and mode, from raw trajectory data. The second module employs the extracted patterns for link prediction. We evaluate our method on two real data sets, GeoLife [15] and Reality Mining [5]. Experimental results show that our hybrid model significantly improves the accuracy of social link prediction, when comparing to primary topology-based solutions. Copyright 2014 ACM.

  3. Artificial neural networks to predict presence of significant pathology in patients presenting to routine colorectal clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslekar, S; Gardiner, A B; Monson, J R T; Duthie, G S

    2010-12-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are computer programs used to identify complex relations within data. Routine predictions of presence of colorectal pathology based on population statistics have little meaning for individual patient. This results in large number of unnecessary lower gastrointestinal endoscopies (LGEs - colonoscopies and flexible sigmoidoscopies). We aimed to develop a neural network algorithm that can accurately predict presence of significant pathology in patients attending routine outpatient clinics for gastrointestinal symptoms. Ethics approval was obtained and the study was monitored according to International Committee on Harmonisation - Good Clinical Practice (ICH-GCP) standards. Three-hundred patients undergoing LGE prospectively completed a specifically developed questionnaire, which included 40 variables based on clinical symptoms, signs, past- and family history. Complete data sets of 100 patients were used to train the ANN; the remaining data was used for internal validation. The primary output used was positive finding on LGE, including polyps, cancer, diverticular disease or colitis. For external validation, the ANN was applied to data from 50 patients in primary care and also compared with the predictions of four clinicians. Clear correlation between actual data value and ANN predictions were found (r = 0.931; P = 0.0001). The predictive accuracy of ANN was 95% in training group and 90% (95% CI 84-96) in the internal validation set and this was significantly higher than the clinical accuracy (75%). ANN also showed high accuracy in the external validation group (89%). Artificial neural networks offer the possibility of personal prediction of outcome for individual patients presenting in clinics with colorectal symptoms, making it possible to make more appropriate requests for lower gastrointestinal endoscopy. © 2010 The Authors. Colorectal Disease © 2010 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  4. Clinical Significance of Hemostatic Parameters in the Prediction for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Diabetic Nephropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lianlian Pan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available It would be important to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM and diabetic nephropathy (DN. This study was aimed at evaluating the predicting significance of hemostatic parameters for T2DM and DN. Plasma coagulation and hematologic parameters before treatment were measured in 297 T2DM patients. The risk factors and their predicting power were evaluated. T2DM patients without complications exhibited significantly different activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT, platelet (PLT, and D-dimer (D-D levels compared with controls (P<0.01. Fibrinogen (FIB, PLT, and D-D increased in DN patients compared with those without complications (P<0.001. Both aPTT and PLT were the independent risk factors for T2DM (OR: 1.320 and 1.211, P<0.01, resp., and FIB and PLT were the independent risk factors for DN (OR: 1.611 and 1.194, P<0.01, resp.. The area under ROC curve (AUC of aPTT and PLT was 0.592 and 0.647, respectively, with low sensitivity in predicting T2DM. AUC of FIB was 0.874 with high sensitivity (85% and specificity (76% for DN, and that of PLT was 0.564, with sensitivity (60% and specificity (89% based on the cutoff values of 3.15 g/L and 245 × 109/L, respectively. This study suggests that hemostatic parameters have a low predicting value for T2DM, whereas fibrinogen is a powerful predictor for DN.

  5. Statistical significance of theoretical predictions: A new dimension in nuclear structure theories (I)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DUDEK, J; SZPAK, B; FORNAL, B; PORQUET, M-G

    2011-01-01

    In this and the follow-up article we briefly discuss what we believe represents one of the most serious problems in contemporary nuclear structure: the question of statistical significance of parametrizations of nuclear microscopic Hamiltonians and the implied predictive power of the underlying theories. In the present Part I, we introduce the main lines of reasoning of the so-called Inverse Problem Theory, an important sub-field in the contemporary Applied Mathematics, here illustrated on the example of the Nuclear Mean-Field Approach.

  6. Forecasting Significant Societal Events Using The Embers Streaming Predictive Analytics System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Andy; Katz, Graham; Summers, Kristen; Ackermann, Chris; Zavorin, Ilya; Lim, Zunsik; Muthiah, Sathappan; Butler, Patrick; Self, Nathan; Zhao, Liang; Lu, Chang-Tien; Khandpur, Rupinder Paul; Fayed, Youssef; Ramakrishnan, Naren

    2014-12-01

    Developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity Open Source Indicators program, Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates (EMBERS) is a large-scale big data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest events on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November 2012 and delivers approximately 50 predictions each day for countries of Latin America. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, loosely coupled, shared-nothing architecture using ZeroMQ as its messaging backbone and JSON as its wire data format. It is deployed on Amazon Web Services using an entirely automated deployment process. We describe the architecture of the system, some of the design tradeoffs encountered during development, and specifics of the machine learning models underlying EMBERS. We also present a detailed prospective evaluation of EMBERS in forecasting significant societal events in the past 2 years.

  7. Significant interarm blood pressure difference predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: CoCoNet study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Su-A; Kim, Jang Young; Park, Jeong Bae

    2016-06-01

    There has been a rising interest in interarm blood pressure difference (IAD), due to its relationship with peripheral arterial disease and its possible relationship with cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to characterize hypertensive patients with a significant IAD in relation to cardiovascular risk. A total of 3699 patients (mean age, 61 ± 11 years) were prospectively enrolled in the study. Blood pressure (BP) was measured simultaneously in both arms 3 times using an automated cuff-oscillometric device. IAD was defined as the absolute difference in averaged BPs between the left and right arm, and an IAD ≥ 10 mm Hg was considered to be significant. The Framingham risk score was used to calculate the 10-year cardiovascular risk. The mean systolic IAD (sIAD) was 4.3 ± 4.1 mm Hg, and 285 (7.7%) patients showed significant sIAD. Patients with significant sIAD showed larger body mass index (P < 0.001), greater systolic BP (P = 0.050), more coronary artery disease (relative risk = 1.356, P = 0.034), and more cerebrovascular disease (relative risk = 1.521, P = 0.072). The mean 10-year cardiovascular risk was 9.3 ± 7.7%. By multiple regression, sIAD was significantly but weakly correlated with the 10-year cardiovascular risk (β = 0.135, P = 0.008). Patients with significant sIAD showed a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease, as well as an increase in 10-year cardiovascular risk. Therefore, accurate measurements of sIAD may serve as a simple and cost-effective tool for predicting cardiovascular risk in clinical settings.

  8. Significant interarm blood pressure difference predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Su-A; Kim, Jang Young; Park, Jeong Bae

    2016-01-01

    Abstract There has been a rising interest in interarm blood pressure difference (IAD), due to its relationship with peripheral arterial disease and its possible relationship with cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to characterize hypertensive patients with a significant IAD in relation to cardiovascular risk. A total of 3699 patients (mean age, 61 ± 11 years) were prospectively enrolled in the study. Blood pressure (BP) was measured simultaneously in both arms 3 times using an automated cuff-oscillometric device. IAD was defined as the absolute difference in averaged BPs between the left and right arm, and an IAD ≥ 10 mm Hg was considered to be significant. The Framingham risk score was used to calculate the 10-year cardiovascular risk. The mean systolic IAD (sIAD) was 4.3 ± 4.1 mm Hg, and 285 (7.7%) patients showed significant sIAD. Patients with significant sIAD showed larger body mass index (P < 0.001), greater systolic BP (P = 0.050), more coronary artery disease (relative risk = 1.356, P = 0.034), and more cerebrovascular disease (relative risk = 1.521, P = 0.072). The mean 10-year cardiovascular risk was 9.3 ± 7.7%. By multiple regression, sIAD was significantly but weakly correlated with the 10-year cardiovascular risk (β = 0.135, P = 0.008). Patients with significant sIAD showed a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease, as well as an increase in 10-year cardiovascular risk. Therefore, accurate measurements of sIAD may serve as a simple and cost-effective tool for predicting cardiovascular risk in clinical settings. PMID:27310982

  9. Bilirubin nomogram for prediction of significant hyperbilirubinemia in north Indian neonates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Umesh; Chawla, Deepak; Kaur, Saranjit; Jain, Suksham

    2013-04-01

    (i) To construct hour-specific serum total bilirubin (STB) nomogram in neonates born at =35 weeks of gestation; (ii)To evaluate efficacy of pre-discharge bilirubin measurement in predicting hyperbilirubinemia needing treatment. Diagnostic test performance in a prospective cohort study. Teaching hospital in Northern India. Healthy neonates with gestation =35 weeks or birth weight =2000 g. Serum total bilirubin was measured in all enrolled neonates at 24 ± 6, 72-96 and 96-144 h of postnatal age and when indicated clinically. Neonates were followed up during hospital stay and after discharge till completion of 7th postnatal day. Key outcome was significant hyperbilirubinemia (SHB) defined as need of phototherapy based on modified American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) guidelines. In neonates born at 38 or more weeks of gestation middle line and in neonates born at 37 or less completed weeks of gestation, lower line of phototherapy thresholds were used to initiate phototherapy. For construction of nomogram, STB values were clubbed in six-hour epochs (age ± 3 hours) for postnatal age up to 48 h and twelve-hour epochs (age ± 6 hours) for age beyond 48 h. Predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and likelihood ratio, by plotting receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calculating c-statistic. 997 neonates (birth weight: 2627 ± 536 g, gestation: 37.8 ± 1.5 weeks) were enrolled, of which 931 completed followup. Among enrolled neonates 344 (34.5%) were low birth weight. Rate of exclusive breastfeeding during hospital stay was more than 80%. Bilirubin nomogram was constructed using 40th, 75th and 95th percentile values of hour-specific bilirubin. Pre-discharge STB of =95th percentile was assigned to be in high-risk zone, between 75th and 94th centile in upper-intermediate risk zone, between 40th and 74th centile in lower-intermediate risk zone and below 40th

  10. Mapping Soil Properties of Africa at 250 m Resolution: Random Forests Significantly Improve Current Predictions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomislav Hengl

    Full Text Available 80% of arable land in Africa has low soil fertility and suffers from physical soil problems. Additionally, significant amounts of nutrients are lost every year due to unsustainable soil management practices. This is partially the result of insufficient use of soil management knowledge. To help bridge the soil information gap in Africa, the Africa Soil Information Service (AfSIS project was established in 2008. Over the period 2008-2014, the AfSIS project compiled two point data sets: the Africa Soil Profiles (legacy database and the AfSIS Sentinel Site database. These data sets contain over 28 thousand sampling locations and represent the most comprehensive soil sample data sets of the African continent to date. Utilizing these point data sets in combination with a large number of covariates, we have generated a series of spatial predictions of soil properties relevant to the agricultural management--organic carbon, pH, sand, silt and clay fractions, bulk density, cation-exchange capacity, total nitrogen, exchangeable acidity, Al content and exchangeable bases (Ca, K, Mg, Na. We specifically investigate differences between two predictive approaches: random forests and linear regression. Results of 5-fold cross-validation demonstrate that the random forests algorithm consistently outperforms the linear regression algorithm, with average decreases of 15-75% in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE across soil properties and depths. Fitting and running random forests models takes an order of magnitude more time and the modelling success is sensitive to artifacts in the input data, but as long as quality-controlled point data are provided, an increase in soil mapping accuracy can be expected. Results also indicate that globally predicted soil classes (USDA Soil Taxonomy, especially Alfisols and Mollisols help improve continental scale soil property mapping, and are among the most important predictors. This indicates a promising potential for transferring

  11. The significance of collateral vessels, as seen on chest CT, in predicting SVC obstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeouk, Young Soo; Kim, Sung Jin; Bae, Il Hun; Kim, Jae Youn; Hwang, Seung Min; Han, Gi Seok; Park, Kil Sun; Kim, Dae Young

    1998-01-01

    To evaluate the significance of collateral veins, as seen on chest CT, in the diagnosis of superior vena cava obstruction. We retrospectively the records of 81 patients in whom collateral veins were seen on chest CT. On spiral CT(n=49), contrast material was infused via power injector, and on conventional CT(n=32), 50 ml bolus infusion was followed by 50 ml drip infusion. Obstruction of the SVC was evaluated on chest CT; if, however, evaluation of the SVC of its major tributaries was difficult, as in five cases, the patient underwent SVC phlebography. Collateral vessels were assigned to one of ten categories. On conventional CT, the jugular venous arch in the only collateral vessel to predict SVC obstruction; on spiral CT, however, collateral vessels are not helpful in the diagnosis of SVC obstruction, but are a nonspecific finding. (author). 12 refs., 2 tab., 2 figs

  12. The prognostic significance of UCA1 for predicting clinical outcome in patients with digestive system malignancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fang-Teng; Dong, Qing; Gao, Hui; Zhu, Zheng-Ming

    2017-06-20

    Urothelial Carcinoma Associated 1 (UCA1) was an originally identified lncRNA in bladder cancer. Previous studies have reported that UCA1 played a significant role in various types of cancer. This study aimed to clarify the prognostic value of UCA1 in digestive system cancers. The meta-analysis of 15 studies were included, comprising 1441 patients with digestive system cancers. The pooled results of 14 studies indicated that high expression of UCA1 was significantly associated with poorer OS in patients with digestive system cancers (HR: 1.89, 95 % CI: 1.52-2.26). In addition, UCA1 could be as an independent prognostic factor for predicting OS of patients (HR: 1.85, 95 % CI: 1.45-2.25). The pooled results of 3 studies indicated a significant association between UCA1 and DFS in patients with digestive system cancers (HR = 2.50; 95 % CI = 1.30-3.69). Statistical significance was also observed in subgroup meta-analysis. Furthermore, the clinicopathological values of UCA1 were discussed in esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer. A comprehensive retrieval was performed to search studies evaluating the prognostic value of UCA1 in digestive system cancers. Many databases were involved, including PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang database. Quantitative meta-analysis was performed with standard statistical methods and the prognostic significance of UCA1 in digestive system cancers was qualified. Elevated level of UCA1 indicated the poor clinical outcome for patients with digestive system cancers. It may serve as a new biomarker related to prognosis in digestive system cancers.

  13. Significance of SYT8 For the Detection, Prediction, and Treatment of Peritoneal Metastasis From Gastric Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, Mitsuro; Shimizu, Dai; Tanaka, Haruyoshi; Tanaka, Chie; Kobayashi, Daisuke; Hayashi, Masamichi; Iwata, Naoki; Niwa, Yukiko; Yamada, Suguru; Fujii, Tsutomu; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Murotani, Kenta; Fujiwara, Michitaka; Kodera, Yasuhiro

    2018-03-01

    To develop novel diagnostic and therapeutic targets specific for peritoneal metastasis of gastric cancer (GC). Advanced GC frequently recurs because of undetected micrometastases even after curative resection. Peritoneal metastasis has been the most frequent recurrent pattern after gastrectomy and is incurable. We conducted a recurrence pattern-specific transcriptome analysis in an independent cohort of 16 patients with stage III GC who underwent curative gastrectomy and adjuvant S-1 for screening candidate molecules specific for peritoneal metastasis of GC. Next, another 340 patients were allocated to discovery and validation sets (1:2) to evaluate the diagnostic and predictive value of the candidate molecule. The results of quantitative reverse-transcription PCR and immunohistochemical analysis were correlated with clinical characteristics and survival. The effects of siRNA-mediated knockdown on phenotype and fluorouracil sensitivity of GC cells were evaluated in vitro, and the therapeutic effects of siRNAs were evaluated using a mouse xenograft model. Synaptotagmin VIII (SYT8) was identified as a candidate biomarker specific to peritoneal metastasis. In the discovery set, the optimal cut-off of SYT8 expression was established as 0.005. Expression levels of SYT8 mRNA in GC tissues were elevated in the validation set comprising patients with peritoneal recurrence or metastasis. SYT8 levels above the cut-off value were significantly and specifically associated with peritoneal metastasis, and served as an independent prognostic marker for peritoneal recurrence-free survival of patients with stage II/III GC. The survival difference between patients with SYT8 levels above and below the cut-off was associated with patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy. Inhibition of SYT8 expression by GC cells correlated with decreased invasion, migration, and fluorouracil resistance. Intraperitoneal administration of SYT8-siRNA inhibited the growth of peritoneal nodules and

  14. Predicting Intentions of a Familiar Significant Other Beyond the Mirror Neuron System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Cacioppo

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Inferring intentions of others is one of the most intriguing issues in interpersonal interaction. Theories of embodied cognition and simulation suggest that this mechanism takes place through a direct and automatic matching process that occurs between an observed action and past actions. This process occurs via the reactivation of past self-related sensorimotor experiences within the inferior frontoparietal network (including the mirror neuron system, MNS. The working model is that the anticipatory representations of others' behaviors require internal predictive models of actions formed from pre-established, shared representations between the observer and the actor. This model suggests that observers should be better at predicting intentions performed by a familiar actor, rather than a stranger. However, little is known about the modulations of the intention brain network as a function of the familiarity between the observer and the actor. Here, we combined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI with a behavioral intention inference task, in which participants were asked to predict intentions from three types of actors: A familiar actor (their significant other, themselves (another familiar actor, and a non-familiar actor (a stranger. Our results showed that the participants were better at inferring intentions performed by familiar actors than non-familiar actors and that this better performance was associated with greater activation within and beyond the inferior frontoparietal network i.e., in brain areas related to familiarity (e.g., precuneus. In addition, and in line with Hebbian principles of neural modulations, the more the participants reported being cognitively close to their partner, the less the brain areas associated with action self-other comparison (e.g., inferior parietal lobule, attention (e.g., superior parietal lobule, recollection (hippocampus, and pair bond (ventral tegmental area, VTA were recruited, suggesting that the

  15. Spatially resolved flux measurements of NOx from London suggest significantly higher emissions than predicted by inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Adam R; Lee, James D; Misztal, Pawel K; Metzger, Stefan; Shaw, Marvin D; Lewis, Alastair C; Purvis, Ruth M; Carslaw, David C; Goldstein, Allen H; Hewitt, C Nicholas; Davison, Brian; Beevers, Sean D; Karl, Thomas G

    2016-07-18

    To date, direct validation of city-wide emissions inventories for air pollutants has been difficult or impossible. However, recent technological innovations now allow direct measurement of pollutant fluxes from cities, for comparison with emissions inventories, which are themselves commonly used for prediction of current and future air quality and to help guide abatement strategies. Fluxes of NOx were measured using the eddy-covariance technique from an aircraft flying at low altitude over London. The highest fluxes were observed over central London, with lower fluxes measured in suburban areas. A footprint model was used to estimate the spatial area from which the measured emissions occurred. This allowed comparison of the flux measurements to the UK's National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) for NOx, with scaling factors used to account for the actual time of day, day of week and month of year of the measurement. The comparison suggests significant underestimation of NOx emissions in London by the NAEI, mainly due to its under-representation of real world road traffic emissions. A comparison was also carried out with an enhanced version of the inventory using real world driving emission factors and road measurement data taken from the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI). The measurement to inventory agreement was substantially improved using the enhanced version, showing the importance of fully accounting for road traffic, which is the dominant NOx emission source in London. In central London there was still an underestimation by the inventory of 30-40% compared with flux measurements, suggesting significant improvements are still required in the NOx emissions inventory.

  16. Predicting Community College Outcomes: Does High School CTE Participation Have a Significant Effect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Cecile; Lichtenberger, Eric; Kamalludeen, Rosemaliza

    2016-01-01

    This study explored the relative importance of participation in high school career and technical education (CTE) programs in predicting community college outcomes. A hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was used to predict community college outcome attainment among a random sample of direct community college entrants. Results show that…

  17. Significant change of predictions related to the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumitrache, Ion

    2002-01-01

    During the last two decades of the 20th century, nuclear power contribution increased slowly in the world. This trend was mainly determined by the commissioning of new nuclear power plants, NPP, in the non-developed countries, except for Japan and South Korea. Almost all the forecasts offered the image of the stagnant nuclear power business. Sweden, Germany, Holland and Belgium Governments made clear the intention to stop the production of electricity based on fission. Recently, despite the negative effects on nuclear power of the terrorism events of September 11, 2001, the predictions related to the nuclear power future become much more optimistic. USA, Japan, South Korea and Canada made clear that new NPPs will offer their significant electricity contribution several decades, even after years 2020-2030. Moreover, several old NPP from USA obtained the license for an additional 20 years period of operation. The analysis indicated that most of the existing NPP in USA may increase the level of the maximum global power defined by the initial design. In the European Union the situation is much more complicated. About 35% of the electricity is based now on fission. Several countries, like Sweden and Germany, maintain the position of phasing out the NPPs, as soon as the licensed life-time is over. Finland decided to build a new power plant. France is very favorable to nuclear power, but does not need more energy. In the UK several very old NPP will be shut down, and companies like BNFL and British Energy intend to build new NPP, based on Westinghouse or AECL-Canada advanced reactors. Switzerland and Spain are favorable to the future use of nuclear power. In the eastern part of Europe, almost all the countries intend to base their electricity production on coal, fission, hydro and gas, nuclear contribution being significant. The most impressive increases of nuclear power output are related to Asia; in China, from 2.2 Gwe in 1999, to 18.7 Gwe in 2020, reference case, or 10

  18. The prognostic significance of HOTAIR for predicting clinical outcome in patients with digestive system tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Gaoxiang; Wang, Qiaoyan; Lv, Chunye; Qiang, Fulin; Hua, Qiuhan; Chu, Haiyan; Du, Mulong; Tong, Na; Jiang, Yejuan; Wang, Meilin; Zhang, Zhengdong; Wang, Jian; Gong, Weida

    2015-12-01

    Although some studies have assessed the prognostic value of HOTAIR in patients with digestive system tumors, the relationship between the HOTAIR and outcome of digestive system tumors remains unknown. The PubMed was searched to identify the eligible studies. Here, we performed a meta-analysis with 11 studies, including a total of 903 cases. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) of HOTAIR for cancer survival were calculated. We found that the pooled HR elevated HOTAIR expression in tumor tissues was 2.36 (95 % CI 1.88-2.97) compared with patients with low HOTAIR expression. Moreover, subgroup analysis revealed that HOTAIR overexpression was also markedly associated with short survival for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (HR 2.19, 95 % CI 1.62-2.94) and gastric cancer (HR 1.66, 95 % CI 1.02-2.68). In addition, up-regulated HOTAIR was significantly related to survival of digestive system cancer among the studies with more follow-up time (follow time ≥ 5 years) (HR 2.51, 95 % CI 1.99-3.17). When stratified by HR resource and number of patients, the result indicated consistent results with the overall analysis. Subgroup analysis on ethnicities did not change the prognostic influence of elevated HOTAIR expression. Additionally, we conducted an independent validation cohort including 71 gastric cancer cases, in which patients with up-regulated HOTAIR expression had an unfavorable outcome with HR of 2.10 (95 % CI 1.10-4.03). The results suggest that aberrant HOTAIR expression may serve as a candidate positive marker to predict the prognosis of patients with carcinoma of digestive system.

  19. Parameter definition using vibration prediction software leads to significant drilling performance improvements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amorim, Dalmo; Hanley, Chris Hanley; Fonseca, Isaac; Santos, Juliana [National Oilwell Varco, Houston TX (United States); Leite, Daltro J.; Borella, Augusto; Gozzi, Danilo [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2012-07-01

    The understanding and mitigation of downhole vibration has been a heavily researched subject in the oil industry as it results in more expensive drilling operations, as vibrations significantly diminish the amount of effective drilling energy available to the bit and generate forces that can push the bit or the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA) off its concentric axis of rotation, producing high magnitude impacts with the borehole wall. In order to drill ahead, a sufficient amount of energy must be supplied by the rig to overcome the resistance of the drilling system, including the reactive torque of the system, drag forces, fluid pressure losses and energy dissipated by downhole vibrations, then providing the bit with the energy required to fail the rock. If the drill string enters resonant modes of vibration, not only does it decreases the amount of available energy to drill, but increases the potential for catastrophic downhole equipment and drilling bit failures. In this sense, the mitigation of downhole vibrations will result in faster, smoother, and cheaper drilling operations. A software tool using Finite Element Analysis (FEA) has been developed to provide better understanding of downhole vibration phenomena in drilling environments. The software tool calculates the response of the drilling system at various input conditions, based on the design of the wellbore along with the geometry of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA) and the drill string. It identifies where undesired levels of resonant vibration will be driven by certain combinations of specific drilling parameters, and also which combinations of drilling parameters will result in lower levels of vibration, so the least shocks, the highest penetration rate and the lowest cost per foot can be achieved. With the growing performance of personal computers, complex software systems modeling the drilling vibrations using FEA has been accessible to a wider audience of field users, further complimenting with real time

  20. Exploring the significance of human mobility patterns in social link prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alharbi, Basma Mohammed; Zhang, Xiangliang

    2014-01-01

    Link prediction is a fundamental task in social networks. Recently, emphasis has been placed on forecasting new social ties using user mobility patterns, e.g., investigating physical and semantic co-locations for new proximity measure. This paper

  1. Alcohol and marijuana use while driving--an unexpected crash risk in Pakistani commercial drivers: a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mir, Mohammed Umer; Khan, Imran; Ahmed, Bilal; Abdul Razzak, Junaid

    2012-02-27

    A significant proportion of road traffic crashes are attributable to alcohol and marijuana use while driving globally. Sale and use of both substances is illegal in Pakistan and is not considered a threat for road traffic injuries. However literature hints that this may not be the case. We did this study to assess usage of alcohol and marijuana in Pakistani commercial drivers. A sample of 857 commercial bus and truck drivers was interviewed in October 2008 at the largest commercial vehicle station in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, Pakistan. Time location cluster sampling was used to select the subjects and a structured questionnaire was used to assess the basic demographic profile, substance abuse habits of the drivers while on the road, and reasons for usage of illicit substances while driving were recorded. Self reported information was collected after obtaining informed consent. Chi square and fisher exact tests were used to assess differences between groups and logistic regression was used to identify significant associations between driver characteristics and alcohol and marijuana use. Almost 10% of truck drivers use alcohol while driving on Pakistani roads. Marijuana use is almost 30% in some groups. Statistically different patterns of usage are seen between population subgroups based on age, ethnicity, education, and marital status. Regression analysis shows association of alcohol and marijuana use with road rage and error behaviours, and also with an increased risk of being involved in road crashes. The reported reasons for using alcohol or marijuana show a general lack of awareness of the hazardous nature of this practice among the commercial driver population. Alcohol and marijuana use is highly prevalent in Pakistani commercial drivers. The issue needs to be recognized by concerned authorities and methods such as random breath tests and sobriety check points need to be employed for proper law enforcement.

  2. Alcohol and marijuana use while driving--an unexpected crash risk in Pakistani commercial drivers: a cross-sectional survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mir Mohammed

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A significant proportion of road traffic crashes are attributable to alcohol and marijuana use while driving globally. Sale and use of both substances is illegal in Pakistan and is not considered a threat for road traffic injuries. However literature hints that this may not be the case. We did this study to assess usage of alcohol and marijuana in Pakistani commercial drivers. Methods A sample of 857 commercial bus and truck drivers was interviewed in October 2008 at the largest commercial vehicle station in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, Pakistan. Time location cluster sampling was used to select the subjects and a structured questionnaire was used to assess the basic demographic profile, substance abuse habits of the drivers while on the road, and reasons for usage of illicit substances while driving were recorded. Self reported information was collected after obtaining informed consent. Chi square and fisher exact tests were used to assess differences between groups and logistic regression was used to identify significant associations between driver characteristics and alcohol and marijuana use. Results Almost 10% of truck drivers use alcohol while driving on Pakistani roads. Marijuana use is almost 30% in some groups. Statistically different patterns of usage are seen between population subgroups based on age, ethnicity, education, and marital status. Regression analysis shows association of alcohol and marijuana use with road rage and error behaviours, and also with an increased risk of being involved in road crashes. The reported reasons for using alcohol or marijuana show a general lack of awareness of the hazardous nature of this practice among the commercial driver population. Conclusion Alcohol and marijuana use is highly prevalent in Pakistani commercial drivers. The issue needs to be recognized by concerned authorities and methods such as random breath tests and sobriety check points need to be employed for proper law

  3. Combining modularity, conservation, and interactions of proteins significantly increases precision and coverage of protein function prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sers Christine T

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While the number of newly sequenced genomes and genes is constantly increasing, elucidation of their function still is a laborious and time-consuming task. This has led to the development of a wide range of methods for predicting protein functions in silico. We report on a new method that predicts function based on a combination of information about protein interactions, orthology, and the conservation of protein networks in different species. Results We show that aggregation of these independent sources of evidence leads to a drastic increase in number and quality of predictions when compared to baselines and other methods reported in the literature. For instance, our method generates more than 12,000 novel protein functions for human with an estimated precision of ~76%, among which are 7,500 new functional annotations for 1,973 human proteins that previously had zero or only one function annotated. We also verified our predictions on a set of genes that play an important role in colorectal cancer (MLH1, PMS2, EPHB4 and could confirm more than 73% of them based on evidence in the literature. Conclusions The combination of different methods into a single, comprehensive prediction method infers thousands of protein functions for every species included in the analysis at varying, yet always high levels of precision and very good coverage.

  4. Significance of High Resolution GHRSST on prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Jangid, Buddhi Prakash

    2017-02-24

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assess the importance of very high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal rainfall prediction. Two different SST datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model analysis and merged satellite product from Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) are used as a lower boundary condition in the WRF model for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 2010. Before using NCEP SST and GHRSST for model simulation, an initial verification of NCEP SST and GHRSST are performed with buoy measurements. It is found that approximately 0.4 K root mean square difference (RMSD) in GHRSST and NCEP SST when compared with buoy observations available over the Indian Ocean during 01 May to 30 September 2010. Our analyses suggest that use of GHRSST as lower boundary conditions in the WRF model improve the low level temperature, moisture, wind speed and rainfall prediction over ISM region. Moreover, temporal evolution of surface parameters such as temperature, moisture and wind speed forecasts associated with monsoon is also improved with GHRSST forcing as a lower boundary condition. Interestingly, rainfall prediction is improved with the use of GHRSST over the Western Ghats, which mostly not simulated in the NCEP SST based experiment.

  5. Significant increase of Echinococcus multilocularis prevalencein foxes, but no increased predicted risk for humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maas, M.; Dam-Deisz, W.D.C.; Roon, van A.M.; Takumi, K.; Giessen, van der J.W.B.

    2014-01-01

    The emergence of the zoonotic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis, causative agent ofalveolar echinococcosis (AE), poses a public health risk. A previously designed risk mapmodel predicted a spread of E. multilocularis and increasing numbers of alveolar echinococ-cosis patients in the province of

  6. The significance of parenchymal changes of acute cellular rejection in predicting chronic liver graft rejection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gouw, ASH; van den Heuvel, MC; van den Berg, AP; Slooff, NJH; de Jong, KP; Poppema, S

    2002-01-01

    Background. Chronic rejection (CR) in liver allografts shows a rapid onset and progressive course, leading to graft failure within the first year after transplantation. Most cases are preceded by episodes of acute cellular rejection (AR), but histological features predictive for the transition

  7. Significance of High Resolution GHRSST on prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Jangid, Buddhi Prakash; Kumar, Prashant; Attada, Raju; Kumar, Raj

    2017-01-01

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assess the importance of very high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal rainfall prediction. Two different SST datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model analysis and merged satellite product from Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) are used as a lower boundary condition in the WRF model for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 2010. Before using NCEP SST and GHRSST for model simulation, an initial verification of NCEP SST and GHRSST are performed with buoy measurements. It is found that approximately 0.4 K root mean square difference (RMSD) in GHRSST and NCEP SST when compared with buoy observations available over the Indian Ocean during 01 May to 30 September 2010. Our analyses suggest that use of GHRSST as lower boundary conditions in the WRF model improve the low level temperature, moisture, wind speed and rainfall prediction over ISM region. Moreover, temporal evolution of surface parameters such as temperature, moisture and wind speed forecasts associated with monsoon is also improved with GHRSST forcing as a lower boundary condition. Interestingly, rainfall prediction is improved with the use of GHRSST over the Western Ghats, which mostly not simulated in the NCEP SST based experiment.

  8. The presence, predictive utility, and clinical significance of body dysmorphic symptoms in women with eating disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Both eating disorders (EDs) and body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) are disorders of body image. This study aimed to assess the presence, predictive utility, and impact of clinical features commonly associated with BDD in women with EDs. Methods Participants recruited from two non-clinical cohorts of women, symptomatic and asymptomatic of EDs, completed a survey on ED (EDE-Q) and BDD (BDDE-SR) psychopathology, psychological distress (K-10), and quality of life (SF-12). Results A strong correlation was observed between the total BDDE-SR and the global EDE-Q scores (r = 0.79, p 0.05) measured appearance checking, reassurance-seeking, camouflaging, comparison-making, and social avoidance. In addition to these behaviors, inspection of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) revealed that BDDE-SR items measuring preoccupation and dissatisfaction with appearance were most predictive of ED cases (Se and Sp > 0.60). Higher total BDDE-SR scores were associated with greater distress on the K-10 and poorer quality of life on the SF-12 (all p < 0.01). Conclusions Clinical features central to the model of BDD are common in, predictive of, and associated with impairment in women with EDs. Practice implications are that these features be included in the assessment and treatment of EDs. PMID:24999401

  9. Significance of satellite sign and spot sign in predicting hematoma expansion in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhiyuan; Zheng, Jun; Ali, Hasan; Guo, Rui; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Ma, Lu; Li, Hao; You, Chao

    2017-11-01

    Hematoma expansion is related to poor outcome in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Recently, a non-enhanced computed tomography (CT) based finding, termed the 'satellite sign', was reported to be a novel predictor for poor outcome in spontaneous ICH. However, it is still unclear whether the presence of the satellite sign is related to hematoma expansion. Initial computed tomography angiography (CTA) was conducted within 6h after ictus. Satellite sign on non-enhanced CT and spot sign on CTA were detected by two independent reviewers. The sensitivity and specificity of both satellite sign and spot sign were calculated. Receiver-operator analysis was conducted to evaluate their predictive accuracy for hematoma expansion. This study included 153 patients. Satellite sign was detected in 58 (37.91%) patients and spot sign was detected in 38 (24.84%) patients. Among 37 patients with hematoma expansion, 22 (59.46%) had satellite sign and 23 (62.16%) had spot sign. The sensitivity and specificity of satellite sign for prediction of hematoma expansion were 59.46% and 68.97%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of spot sign were 62.16% and 87.07%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of satellite sign was 0.642 and the AUC of spot sign was 0.746. (P=0.157) CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the satellite sign is an independent predictor for hematoma expansion in spontaneous ICH. Although spot sign has the higher predictive accuracy, satellite sign is still an acceptable predictor for hematoma expansion when CTA is unavailable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Use of data mining to predict significant factors and benefits of bilateral cochlear implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Miguel, Angel; Perez-Zaballos, Teresa; Perez, Daniel; Falconb, Juan Carlos; Ramosb, Angel

    2015-11-01

    Data mining (DM) is a technique used to discover pattern and knowledge from a big amount of data. It uses artificial intelligence, automatic learning, statistics, databases, etc. In this study, DM was successfully used as a predictive tool to assess disyllabic speech test performance in bilateral implanted patients with a success rate above 90%. 60 bilateral sequentially implanted adult patients were included in the study. The DM algorithms developed found correlations between unilateral medical records and Audiological test results and bilateral performance by establishing relevant variables based on two DM techniques: the classifier and the estimation. The nearest neighbor algorithm was implemented in the first case, and the linear regression in the second. The results showed that patients with unilateral disyllabic test results below 70% benefited the most from a bilateral implantation. Finally, it was observed that its benefits decrease as the inter-implant time increases.

  11. Significance of collateral vessels on the prediction of superior vena cava syndrome on CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyun Sook; Kim, Hyung Jin; Lee, Hyeng Gon; Ahn, In Oak; Chung, Sung Hoon

    1993-01-01

    Although visible collateral vessels on computed tomography (CT) has been considered as an important finding in superior vena cava (SVC) syndrome, there is no systematical analysis concerning correlation between the CT evidence of collateral vessels and clinical evidence of SVC syndrome. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how accurately we predict the clinical presence of SVC syndrome by the collateral vessels in patients with apparent SVC obstruction in CT. Forty seven patients having a CT evidence of obstruction or compression of SVC and/or its major tributaries were included in this study. Lung cancer was the most common underlying disease (n=40). The enhanced CT scans were obtained through either arm vein using a combined bolus and drip-infusion technique. Analyzing the CT scans, we particularly paid attention to the site and pattern of venous compromise, presence of collateral vessels, and if present, their location, without knowing whether symptoms and sign were present or nor, and then compared them with clinical data by a thorough review of charts, To verify the frequency of visible collateral vessels in normal subjects, we also evaluated the CT scans of 50 patients without mediastinal disease and clinical SVC syndrome as a control group. On CT, collateral vessels were found in 24 patients, among whom three patient had a single collateral and 21 patients had two or more collateral channels. There were two false positive cases, in which clinically overt SVC syndrome appeared 10 days and three months after CT examination respectively, and one false negative case. The presence of collateral vessels on CT, respectively, and one false negative case. The presence of collateral vessels on CT, regardless of the number and location of collateral vessels and pattern of venous obstruction, was a good clue for predicting the presence of clinical SVC syndrome with the sensitivity and the specificity of 95.7% and 91.7%, respectively. In control group, collateral

  12. Meta-Analysis of Predictive Significance of the Black Hole Sign for Hematoma Expansion in Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jun; Yu, Zhiyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Hao; You, Chao; Ma, Lu

    2018-04-27

    Hematoma expansion is related to unfavorable prognosis in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). The black hole sign is a novel marker on non-contrast computed tomography for predicting hematoma expansion. However, its predictive values are different in previous studies. Thus, this meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the predictive significance of the black hole sign for hematoma expansion in ICH. A systematic literature search was performed. Original researches on the association between the black hole sign and hematoma expansion in ICH were included. Sensitivity and specificity were pooled to assess the predictive accuracy. Summary receiver operating characteristics curve (SROC) was developed. Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test was used to assess the publication bias. Five studies with a total of 1495 patients were included in this study. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the black hole sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 0.30 and 0.91, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.78 in SROC curve. There was no significant publication bias. This meta-analysis shows that the black hole sign is a helpful imaging marker for predicting hematoma expansion in ICH. Although the black hole sign has a relatively low sensitivity, its specificity is relatively high. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A new model using routinely available clinical parameters to predict significant liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B.

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    Wai-Kay Seto

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We developed a predictive model for significant fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB based on routinely available clinical parameters. METHODS: 237 treatment-naïve CHB patients [58.4% hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg-positive] who had undergone liver biopsy were randomly divided into two cohorts: training group (n = 108 and validation group (n = 129. Liver histology was assessed for fibrosis. All common demographics, viral serology, viral load and liver biochemistry were analyzed. RESULTS: Based on 12 available clinical parameters (age, sex, HBeAg status, HBV DNA, platelet, albumin, bilirubin, ALT, AST, ALP, GGT and AFP, a model to predict significant liver fibrosis (Ishak fibrosis score ≥3 was derived using the five best parameters (age, ALP, AST, AFP and platelet. Using the formula log(index+1 = 0.025+0.0031(age+0.1483 log(ALP+0.004 log(AST+0.0908 log(AFP+1-0.028 log(platelet, the PAPAS (Platelet/Age/Phosphatase/AFP/AST index predicts significant fibrosis with an area under the receiving operating characteristics (AUROC curve of 0.776 [0.797 for patients with ALT <2×upper limit of normal (ULN] The negative predictive value to exclude significant fibrosis was 88.4%. This predictive power is superior to other non-invasive models using common parameters, including the AST/platelet/GGT/AFP (APGA index, AST/platelet ratio index (APRI, and the FIB-4 index (AUROC of 0.757, 0.708 and 0.723 respectively. Using the PAPAS index, 67.5% of liver biopsies for patients being considered for treatment with ALT <2×ULN could be avoided. CONCLUSION: The PAPAS index can predict and exclude significant fibrosis, and may reduce the need for liver biopsy in CHB patients.

  14. Prevalence, significance and predictive value of antiphospholipid antibodies in Crohn’s disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipeki, Nora; Davida, Laszlo; Palyu, Eszter; Altorjay, Istvan; Harsfalvi, Jolan; Antal Szalmas, Peter; Szabo, Zoltan; Veres, Gabor; Shums, Zakera; Norman, Gary L; Lakatos, Peter L; Papp, Maria

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To assess the prevalence and stability of different antiphospholipid antibodies (APLAs) and their association with disease phenotype and progression in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) patients. METHODS: About 458 consecutive patients [Crohn’s disease (CD): 271 and ulcerative colitis (UC): 187] were enrolled into a follow-up cohort study in a tertiary IBD referral center in Hungary. Detailed clinical phenotypes were determined at enrollment by reviewing the patients’ medical charts. Disease activity, medical treatment and data about evolvement of complications or surgical interventions were determined prospectively during the follow-up. Disease course (development f complicated disease phenotype and need for surgery), occurrence of thrombotic events, actual state of disease activity according to clinical, laboratory and endoscopic scores and accurate treatment regime were recorded during the follow-up, (median, 57.4 and 61.6 mo for CD and UC). Sera of IBD patients and 103 healthy controls (HC) were tested on individual anti-β2-Glycoprotein-I (anti-β2-GPI IgA/M/G), anti-cardiolipin (ACA IgA/M/G) and anti-phosphatidylserine/prothrombin (anti-PS/PT IgA/M/G) antibodies and also anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies (ASCA IgA/G) by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In a subgroup of CD (n = 198) and UC patients (n = 103), obtaining consecutive samples over various arbitrary time-points during the disease course, we evaluated the intraindividual stability of the APLA status. Additionally, we provide an overview of studies, performed so far, in which significance of APLAs in IBD were assessed. RESULTS: Patients with CD had significantly higher prevalence of both ACA (23.4%) and anti-PS/PT (20.4%) antibodies than UC (4.8%, P < 0.0001 and 10.2%, P = 0.004) and HC (2.9%, P < 0.0001 and 15.5%, P = NS). No difference was found for the prevalence of anti-β2-GPI between different groups (7.2%-9.7%). In CD, no association was found between APLA and ASCA

  15. Accurate prediction of the functional significance of single nucleotide polymorphisms and mutations in the ABCA1 gene.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liam R Brunham

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The human genome contains an estimated 100,000 to 300,000 DNA variants that alter an amino acid in an encoded protein. However, our ability to predict which of these variants are functionally significant is limited. We used a bioinformatics approach to define the functional significance of genetic variation in the ABCA1 gene, a cholesterol transporter crucial for the metabolism of high density lipoprotein cholesterol. To predict the functional consequence of each coding single nucleotide polymorphism and mutation in this gene, we calculated a substitution position-specific evolutionary conservation score for each variant, which considers site-specific variation among evolutionarily related proteins. To test the bioinformatics predictions experimentally, we evaluated the biochemical consequence of these sequence variants by examining the ability of cell lines stably transfected with the ABCA1 alleles to elicit cholesterol efflux. Our bioinformatics approach correctly predicted the functional impact of greater than 94% of the naturally occurring variants we assessed. The bioinformatics predictions were significantly correlated with the degree of functional impairment of ABCA1 mutations (r2 = 0.62, p = 0.0008. These results have allowed us to define the impact of genetic variation on ABCA1 function and to suggest that the in silico evolutionary approach we used may be a useful tool in general for predicting the effects of DNA variation on gene function. In addition, our data suggest that considering patterns of positive selection, along with patterns of negative selection such as evolutionary conservation, may improve our ability to predict the functional effects of amino acid variation.

  16. Prediction of significant conduction disease through noninvasive assessment of cardiac calcification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainigi, Sumeet K; Chebrolu, Lakshmi Hima Bindu; Romero-Corral, Abel; Mehta, Vinay; Machado, Rodolfo Rozindo; Konecny, Tomas; Pressman, Gregg S

    2012-10-01

    Cardiac calcification is associated with coronary artery disease, arrhythmias, conduction disease, and adverse cardiac events. Recently, we have described an echocardiographic-based global cardiac calcification scoring system. The objective of this study was to evaluate the severity of cardiac calcification in patients with permanent pacemakers as based on this scoring system. Patients with a pacemaker implanted within the 2-year study period with a previous echocardiogram were identified and underwent blinded global cardiac calcium scoring. These patients were compared to matched control patients without a pacemaker who also underwent calcium scoring. The study group consisted of 49 patients with pacemaker implantation who were compared to 100 matched control patients. The mean calcium score in the pacemaker group was 3.3 ± 2.9 versus 1.8 ± 2.0 (P = 0.006) in the control group. Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed glomerular filtration rate and calcium scoring to be significant predictors of the presence of a pacemaker. Echocardiographic-based calcium scoring correlates with the presence of severe conduction disease requiring a pacemaker. © 2012, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. New pulmonary vein Doppler echocardiographic index predicts significant interatrial shunting in secundum atrial septal defect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Yat-Yin; Fang, Fang; Yip, Gabriel Wai-Kwok; Li, Zhi-An; Yang, Ya; Yu, Cheuk-Man

    2012-09-20

    The relation between pulmonary venous flow (PVF) pattern and degree of left-to-right interatrial shunting (IAS) in patients with secundum atrial septal defect (ASD) is unknown. Fifty consecutive ASD patients (14 males, 36 ± 17 years) received transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) before and 1 day after transcatheter closure and their results were compared to 40 controls. The ratio of pulmonary-to-systemic flows (Qp/Qs) was assessed by TTE and invasive oximetry. Pre-closure PV systolic (PVs), diastolic (PVd) velocities and velocity-time integral (PV-VTI) increased, time from onset of ECG Q-wave to the peak PV diastolic wave (Q-PVd) shortened and atrial reversal (PVar) velocity significantly decreased as compared to normals. These findings normalized after closure. Patients with large IAS (defined as invasive Qp/Qs ≥ 2) had higher PVs, PVd and PV-VTI, shorter Q-PVd but lower PVar (all pIAS. Invasive Qp/Qs ratios correlated with PVs, PVd, PV-VTI, Q-PVd and TTE-derived Qp/Qs ratios, ASD sizes and RV end-diastolic dimensions (all pIAS after multivariate analysis. The corresponding sensitivity, specificity and AUC were 89%, 82% and 0.90 respectively for a PV-VTI of 30 cm (pIAS have distinguishable PVF features. Doppler evaluation of PV-VTI is a novel additional tool for assessing the magnitude of shunting in these patients non-invasively. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. PREDICTIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF ANTI-HLA AUTOANTIBODIES IN HEART TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. P. Shevchenko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. The aim of this study was to define the role of preformed anti-HLA antibodies (anti-HLA in antibody-mediated rejection (AMR and cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV after heart transplantation. Materials and Methods. 140 heart transplant recipients were followed after heart transplantation performed for 106 dilated and 34 – ischemic cardiomyopathy. Anti-HLA was determined before transplantation by ELISA. Results. Recipients were divided into 2 groups: anti-HLA positive (n = 45, 32,1% and anti-HLA negative (n = 95, 67,9%. The incidence of AMR in anti-HLA positive group was 12 (26,67% and 11 (11,58% in anti-HLA negative group. Risk of AMR was significantly higher in anti-HLA positive recipients (RR 2,3: 95% CI 1,02–4,81, р = 0,03. During first three years after transplantation CAV was diagnosed in 9 (20% of anti-HLA positive recipients and in 7 (6,8% of patients without anti-HLA. (RR 2,7: 95% CI 1,08–6,82, р = 0,03. Survival in freedom from CAV in anti-HLA negative recipients was much higher than in anti-HLA positive recipients (0,89 ± 0,07, 0,72 ± 0,06, resp. (p = 0,02.Conclusions. The presence of preformed anti-HLA antibodies in candidates for heart transplantation increase the risk of AMR and CAV post transplantation in 2,3 and 2,7 times, respectively. 

  19. Faculty Decisions on Serials Subscriptions Differ Significantly from Decisions Predicted by a Bibliometric Tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sue F. Phelps

    2016-03-01

    of the faculty choices. The p-value for this relationship was less than 0.0001, also indicating that the result was not by chance. A quadratic model plotted alongside the previous linear model follows a similar pattern. The p-value of the comparison is 0.0002, which indicates the quadratic model’s fit cannot be explained by random chance. Main Results – The authors point out three outstanding findings. First, the match rate between faculty valuations and bibliometric scores for serials is 65%. This exceeds the 50% rate that would indicate random association, but also indicates a statistically significant difference between faculty and bibliometric valuations. Secondly, the match rate with the bibliometric scores for titles that faculty chose to keep (73% was higher than those they chose to cancel (54%. Thirdly, the match rate increased with higher bibliometric scores. Conclusions – Though the authors identify only a modest degree of similarity between faculty and bibliometric valuations of serials, it is noted that there is more agreement in the higher valued serials than the lower valued serials. With that in mind, librarians might focus faculty review on the lower scoring titles in the future, taking into consideration that unique faculty interests may drive selection at that level and would need to be balanced with the mission of the library.

  20. A critical review of predictive models for the onset of significant void in forced-convection subcooled boiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorra, H.; Lee, S.C.; Bankoff, S.G.

    1993-06-01

    This predictive models for the onset of significant void (OSV) in forced-convection subcooled boiling are reviewed and compared with extensive data. Three analytical models and seven empirical correlations are considered in this review. These models and correlations are put onto a common basis and are compared, again on a common basis, with a variety of data. The evaluation of their range of validity and applicability under various operating conditions are discussed. The results show that the correlations of Saha-Zuber seems to be the best model to predict OSV in vertical subcooled boiling flow

  1. Non-invasive prediction of hemodynamically significant coronary artery stenoses by contrast density difference in coronary CT angiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hell, Michaela M., E-mail: michaela.hell@uk-erlangen.de [Department of Cardiology, University of Erlangen (Germany); Dey, Damini [Department of Biomedical Sciences, Biomedical Imaging Research Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Taper Building, Room A238, 8700 Beverly Boulevard, Los Angeles, CA 90048 (United States); Marwan, Mohamed; Achenbach, Stephan; Schmid, Jasmin; Schuhbaeck, Annika [Department of Cardiology, University of Erlangen (Germany)

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • Overestimation of coronary lesions by coronary computed tomography angiography and subsequent unnecessary invasive coronary angiography and revascularization is a concern. • Differences in plaque characteristics and contrast density difference between hemodynamically significant and non-significant stenoses, as defined by invasive fractional flow reserve, were assessed. • At a threshold of ≥24%, contrast density difference predicted hemodynamically significant lesions with a specificity of 75%, sensitivity of 33%, PPV of 35% and NPV of 73%. • The determination of contrast density difference required less time than transluminal attenuation gradient measurement. - Abstract: Objectives: Coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) allows the detection of obstructive coronary artery disease. However, its ability to predict the hemodynamic significance of stenoses is limited. We assessed differences in plaque characteristics and contrast density difference between hemodynamically significant and non-significant stenoses, as defined by invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR). Methods: Lesion characteristics of 59 consecutive patients (72 lesions) in whom invasive FFR was performed in at least one coronary artery with moderate to high-grade stenoses in coronary CTA were evaluated by two experienced readers. Coronary CTA data sets were acquired on a second-generation dual-source CT scanner using retrospectively ECG-gated spiral acquisition or prospectively ECG-triggered axial acquisition mode. Plaque volume and composition (non-calcified, calcified), remodeling index as well as contrast density difference (defined as the percentage decline in luminal CT attenuation/cross-sectional area over the lesion) were assessed using a semi-automatic software tool (Autoplaq). Additionally, the transluminal attenuation gradient (defined as the linear regression coefficient between intraluminal CT attenuation and length from the ostium) was determined

  2. Surface tensions of multi-component mixed inorganic/organic aqueous systems of atmospheric significance: measurements, model predictions and importance for cloud activation predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. O. Topping

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict the physical properties of aerosol particles, it is necessary to adequately capture the behaviour of the ubiquitous complex organic components. One of the key properties which may affect this behaviour is the contribution of the organic components to the surface tension of aqueous particles in the moist atmosphere. Whilst the qualitative effect of organic compounds on solution surface tensions has been widely reported, our quantitative understanding on mixed organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems is limited. Furthermore, it is unclear whether models that exist in the literature can reproduce the surface tension variability for binary and higher order multi-component organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems of atmospheric significance. The current study aims to resolve both issues to some extent. Surface tensions of single and multiple solute aqueous solutions were measured and compared with predictions from a number of model treatments. On comparison with binary organic systems, two predictive models found in the literature provided a range of values resulting from sensitivity to calculations of pure component surface tensions. Results indicate that a fitted model can capture the variability of the measured data very well, producing the lowest average percentage deviation for all compounds studied. The performance of the other models varies with compound and choice of model parameters. The behaviour of ternary mixed inorganic/organic systems was unreliably captured by using a predictive scheme and this was dependent on the composition of the solutes present. For more atmospherically representative higher order systems, entirely predictive schemes performed poorly. It was found that use of the binary data in a relatively simple mixing rule, or modification of an existing thermodynamic model with parameters derived from binary data, was able to accurately capture the surface tension variation with concentration. Thus

  3. Clinical significance and predictive factors of early massive recurrence after radiofrequency ablation in patients with a single small hepatocellular carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju-Yeon Cho

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims Radiofrequency ablation (RFA is one of the most frequently applied curative treatments in patients with a single small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. However, the clinical significance of and risk factors for early massive recurrence after RFA—a dreadful event limiting further curative treatment—have not been fully evaluated. Methods In total, 438 patients with a single HCC of size ≤3 cm who underwent percutaneous RFA as an initial treatment between 2006 and 2009 were included. Baseline patient characteristics, overall survival, predictive factors, and recurrence after RFA were evaluated. In addition, the incidence, impact on survival, and predictive factors of early massive recurrence, and initial recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 2 years were also investigated. Results During the median follow-up of 68.4 months, recurrent HCC was confirmed in 302 (68.9% patients, with early massive recurrence in 27 patients (6.2%. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 95.4%, 84.7%, and 81.8%, respectively, in patients with no recurrence, 99.6%, 86.4%, and 70.1% in patients with recurrence within the Milan criteria or late recurrence, and 92.6%, 46.5%, and 0.05% in patients with early massive recurrence. Multivariable analysis identified older age, Child-Pugh score B or C, and early massive recurrence as predictive of poor overall survival. A tumor size of ≥2 cm and tumor location adjacent to the colon were independent risk factors predictive of early massive recurrence. Conclusions Early massive recurrence is independently predictive of poor overall survival after RFA in patients with a single small HCC. Tumors sized ≥2 cm and located adjacent to the colon appear to be independent risk factors for early massive recurrence.

  4. Physiologically-based, predictive analytics using the heart-rate-to-Systolic-Ratio significantly improves the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction compared to SIRS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Omar K; Hendren, Sandra; Santiago, Ethel; Nye, Brittany; Abraham, Prasad

    2017-04-01

    Enhancing the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment of severe sepsis by using physiologically-based, predictive analytical strategies has not been fully explored. We hypothesize assessment of heart-rate-to-systolic-ratio significantly increases the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction after emergency department (ED) presentation. We evaluated the records of 53,313 ED patients from a large, urban teaching hospital between January and June 2015. The HR-to-systolic ratio was compared to SIRS criteria for sepsis prediction. There were 884 patients with discharge diagnoses of sepsis, severe sepsis, and/or septic shock. Variations in three presenting variables, heart rate, systolic BP and temperature were determined to be primary early predictors of sepsis with a 74% (654/884) accuracy compared to 34% (304/884) using SIRS criteria (p < 0.0001)in confirmed septic patients. Physiologically-based predictive analytics improved the accuracy and expediency of sepsis identification via detection of variations in HR-to-systolic ratio. This approach may lead to earlier sepsis workup and life-saving interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Role of hyaluronic acid and laminin as serum markers for predicting significant fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Li

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of serum HA and LN as serum markers for predicting significant fibrosis in CHB patients. METHODS: Serum HA and LN levels of 87 patients with chronic hepatitis B and 19 blood donors were assayed by RIA. Liver fibrosis stages were determined according to the Metavir scoring-system. The diagnostic performances of all indexes were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. RESULTS: Serum HA and LN concentrations increased significantly with the stage of hepatic fibrosis, which showed positive correlation with the stages of liver fibrosis (HA: r = 0.875, p < 0.001; LN: r = 0.610, p < 0.001. There were significant differences of serum HA and LN levels between F2-4 group in comparison with those in F0-F1 group (p < 0.001 and controls (p < 0.001, respectively. From ROC curves, 185.3 ng/mL as the optimal cut-off value of serum HA for diagnosis of significant fibrosis, giving its sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, LR+, LR- and AC of 84.2%, 83.3%, 90.6%, 73.5%, 5.04, 0.19 and 83.9, respectively. While 132.7 ng/mL was the optimal cut-off value of serum LN, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, LR+, LR- and AC were 71.9%, 80.0%, 87.2%, 60.0%, 3.59%, 0.35% and 74.7, respectively. Combinations of HA and LN by serial tests showed a perfect specificity and PPV of 100%, at the same time sensitivity declined to 63.2% and LR+ increased to 18.9, while parallel tests revealed a good sensitivity of 94.7%, NPV to 86.4%, and LR- declined to 0.08. CONCLUSIONS: Serum HA and LN concentrations showed positive correlation with the stages of liver fibrosis. Detection of serum HA and LN in predicting significant fibrosis showed good diagnostic performance, which would be further optimized by combination of the two indices. HA and LN would be clinically useful serum markers for predicting significant fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B, when liver biopsy is

  6. Study of prognostic significance of antenatal ultrasonography and renin angiotensin system activation in predicting disease severity in posterior urethral valves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Divya Bhadoo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: Study on prognostic significance of antenatal ultrasonography and renin angiotensin system activation in predicting disease severity in posterior urethral valves. Materials and Methods: Antenatally diagnosed hydronephrosis patients were included. Postnatally, they were divided into two groups, posterior urethral valve (PUV and non-PUV. The studied parameters were: Gestational age at detection, surgical intervention, ultrasound findings, cord blood and follow up plasma renin activity (PRA values, vesico-ureteric reflux (VUR, renal scars, and glomerular filtration rate (GFR. Results: A total of 25 patients were included, 10 PUV and 15 non-PUV. All infants with PUV underwent primary valve incision. GFR was less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 body surface area in 4 patients at last follow-up. Keyhole sign, oligoamnios, absent bladder cycling, and cortical cysts were not consistent findings on antenatal ultrasound in PUV. Cord blood PRA was significantly higher (P < 0.0001 in PUV compared to non-PUV patients. Gestational age at detection of hydronephrosis, cortical cysts, bladder wall thickness, and amniotic fluid index were not significantly correlated with GFR while PRA could differentiate between poor and better prognosis cases with PUV. Conclusions: Ultrasound was neither uniformly useful in diagnosing PUV antenatally, nor differentiating it from cases with non-PUV hydronephrosis. In congenital hydronephrosis, cord blood PRA was significantly higher in cases with PUV compared to non-PUV cases and fell significantly after valve ablation. Cord blood PRA could distinguish between poor and better prognosis cases with PUV.

  7. Towards an improved prediction of the free radical scavenging potency of flavonoids: the significance of double PCET mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amić, Ana; Marković, Zoran; Dimitrić Marković, Jasmina M; Stepanić, Višnja; Lučić, Bono; Amić, Dragan

    2014-01-01

    The 1H(+)/1e(-) and 2H(+)/2e(-) proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) processes of free radical scavenging by flavonoids were theoretically studied for aqueous and lipid environments using the PM6 and PM7 methods. The results reported here indicate that the significant contribution of the second PCET mechanism, resulting in the formation of a quinone/quinone methide, effectively discriminates the active from inactive flavonoids. The predictive potency of descriptors related to the energetics of second PCET mechanisms (the second O-H bond dissociation enthalpy (BDE2) related to hydrogen atom transfer (HAT) mechanism, and the second electron transfer enthalpy (ETE2) related to sequential proton loss electron transfer (SPLET) mechanism) are superior to the currently used indices, which are related to the first 1H(+)/1e(-) processes, and could serve as primary descriptors in development of the QSAR (quantitative structure-activity relationships) of flavonoids. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Significance of uncertainties derived from settling tank model structure and parameters on predicting WWTP performance - A global sensitivity analysis study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty derived from one of the process models – such as one-dimensional secondary settling tank (SST) models – can impact the output of the other process models, e.g., biokinetic (ASM1), as well as the integrated wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) models. The model structure and parameter...... and from the last aerobic bioreactor upstream to the SST (Garrett/hydraulic method). For model structure uncertainty, two one-dimensional secondary settling tank (1-D SST) models are assessed, including a first-order model (the widely used Takács-model), in which the feasibility of using measured...... uncertainty of settler models can therefore propagate, and add to the uncertainties in prediction of any plant performance criteria. Here we present an assessment of the relative significance of secondary settling model performance in WWTP simulations. We perform a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) based...

  9. Predictive significance of standardized uptake value parameters of FDG-PET in patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan, X-Y.; Wang, W.; Li, M.; Li, Y.; Guo, Y-M. [PET-CT Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi' an, Jiaotong University, Xi' an, Shaanxi (China)

    2015-02-03

    {sup 18}F-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) is widely used to diagnose and stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the predictive ability of different FDG standardized uptake values (SUVs) in 74 patients with newly diagnosed NSCLC. {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT scans were performed and different SUV parameters (SUV{sub max}, SUV{sub avg}, SUV{sub T/L}, and SUV{sub T/A}) obtained, and their relationship with clinical characteristics were investigated. Meanwhile, correlation and multiple stepwise regression analyses were performed to determine the primary predictor of SUVs for NSCLC. Age, gender, and tumor size significantly affected SUV parameters. The mean SUVs of squamous cell carcinoma were higher than those of adenocarcinoma. Poorly differentiated tumors exhibited higher SUVs than well-differentiated ones. Further analyses based on the pathologic type revealed that the SUV{sub max}, SUV{sub avg}, and SUV{sub T/L} of poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma tumors were higher than those of moderately or well-differentiated tumors. Among these four SUV parameters, SUV{sub T/L} was the primary predictor for tumor differentiation. However, in adenocarcinoma, SUV{sub max} was the determining factor for tumor differentiation. Our results showed that these four SUV parameters had predictive significance related to NSCLC tumor differentiation; SUV{sub T/L} appeared to be most useful overall, but SUV{sub max} was the best index for adenocarcinoma tumor differentiation.

  10. Integrated genomic and immunophenotypic classification of pancreatic cancer reveals three distinct subtypes with prognostic/predictive significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wartenberg, Martin; Cibin, Silvia; Zlobec, Inti; Vassella, Erik; Eppenberger-Castori, Serenella M M; Terracciano, Luigi; Eichmann, Micha; Worni, Mathias; Gloor, Beat; Perren, Aurel; Karamitopoulou, Eva

    2018-04-16

    Current clinical classification of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is unable to predict prognosis or response to chemo- or immunotherapy and does not take into account the host reaction to PDAC-cells. Our aim is to classify PDAC according to host- and tumor-related factors into clinically/biologically relevant subtypes by integrating molecular and microenvironmental findings. A well-characterized PDAC-cohort (n=110) underwent next-generation sequencing with a hotspot cancer panel, while Next-generation Tissue-Microarrays were immunostained for CD3, CD4, CD8, CD20, PD-L1, p63, hyaluronan-mediated motility receptor (RHAMM) and DNA mismatch-repair proteins. Previous data on FOXP3 were integrated. Immune-cell counts and protein expression were correlated with tumor-derived driver mutations, clinicopathologic features (TNM 8. 2017), survival and epithelial-mesenchymal-transition (EMT)-like tumor budding.  Results: Three PDAC-subtypes were identified: the "immune-escape" (54%), poor in T- and B-cells and enriched in FOXP3+Tregs, with high-grade budding, frequent CDKN2A- , SMAD4- and PIK3CA-mutations and poor outcome; the "immune-rich" (35%), rich in T- and B-cells and poorer in FOXP3+Tregs, with infrequent budding, lower CDKN2A- and PIK3CA-mutation rate and better outcome and a subpopulation with tertiary lymphoid tissue (TLT), mutations in DNA damage response genes (STK11, ATM) and the best outcome; and the "immune-exhausted" (11%) with immunogenic microenvironment and two subpopulations: one with PD-L1-expression and high PIK3CA-mutation rate and a microsatellite-unstable subpopulation with high prevalence of JAK3-mutations. The combination of low budding, low stromal FOXP3-counts, presence of TLTs and absence of CDKN2A-mutations confers significant survival advantage in PDAC-patients. Immune host responses correlate with tumor characteristics leading to morphologically recognizable PDAC-subtypes with prognostic/predictive significance. Copyright ©2018

  11. Preoperative Metabolic Syndrome Is Predictive of Significant Gastric Cancer Mortality after Gastrectomy: The Fujian Prospective Investigation of Cancer (FIESTA Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Hu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Metabolic syndrome (MetS has been shown to be associated with an increased risk of gastric cancer. However, the impact of MetS on gastric cancer mortality remains largely unknown. Here, we prospectively examined the prediction of preoperative MetS for gastric cancer mortality by analyzing a subset of data from the ongoing Fujian prospective investigation of cancer (FIESTA study. This study was conducted among 3012 patients with gastric cancer who received radical gastrectomy between 2000 and 2010. The latest follow-up was completed in 2015. Blood/tissue specimens, demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics were collected at baseline. During 15-year follow-up, 1331 of 3012 patients died of gastric cancer. The median survival time (MST of patients with MetS was 31.3 months, which was significantly shorter than that of MetS-free patients (157.1 months. The coexistence of MetS before surgery was associated with a 2.3-fold increased risk for gastric cancer mortality (P < 0.001. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs were increased with invasion depth T1/T2 (HR = 2.78, P < 0.001, regional lymph node metastasis N0 (HR = 2.65, P < 0.001, positive distant metastasis (HR = 2.53, P < 0.001, TNM stage I/II (HR = 3.00, P < 0.001, intestinal type (HR = 2.96, P < 0.001, negative tumor embolus (HR = 2.34, P < 0.001, and tumor size ≤4.5 cm (HR = 2.49, P < 0.001. Further survival tree analysis confirmed the top splitting role of TNM stage, followed by MetS or hyperglycemia with remarkable discrimination ability. In this large cohort study, preoperative MetS, especially hyperglycemia, was predictive of significant gastric cancer mortality in patients with radical gastrectomy, especially for early stage of gastric cancer.

  12. Validation of DAB2IP methylation and its relative significance in predicting outcome in renal cell carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liang-Yun; Kapur, Payal; Wu, Kai-Jie; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yan-Hong; Liao, Bing; He, Da-Lin; Chen, Wei; Margulis, Vitaly; Hsieh, Jer-Tsong; Luo, Jun-Hang

    2016-01-01

    We have recently reported tumor suppressive role of DAB2IP in RCC development. In this study, We identified one CpG methylation biomarker (DAB2IP CpG1) located UTSS of DAB2IP that was associated with poor overall survival in a cohort of 318 ccRCC patients from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We further validated the prognostic accuracy of DAB2IP CpG methylation by pyrosequencing quantitative methylation assay in 224 ccRCC patients from multiple Chinese centers (MCHC set), and 239 patients from University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas (UTSW set) by using FFPE samples. DAB2IP CpG1 can predict the overall survival of patients in TCGA, MCHC, and UTSW sets independent of patient age, Fuhrman grade and TNM stage (all p<0.05). DAB2IP CpG1 successfully categorized patients into high-risk and low-risk groups with significant differences of clinical outcome in respective clinical subsets, regardless of age, sex, grade, stage, or race (HR: 1.63-7.83; all p<0.05). The detection of DAB2IP CpG1 methylation was minimally affected by ITH in ccRCC. DAB2IP mRNA expression was regulated by DNA methylation in vitro. DAB2IP CpG1 methylation is a practical and repeatable biomarker for ccRCC, which can provide prognostic value that complements the current staging system. PMID:27129174

  13. A brief peripheral motion contrast threshold test predicts older drivers' hazardous behaviors in simulated driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Steven; Woods-Fry, Heather; Collin, Charles A; Gagnon, Sylvain; Voloaca, Misha; Grant, John; Rosenthal, Ted; Allen, Wade

    2015-05-01

    Our research group has previously demonstrated that the peripheral motion contrast threshold (PMCT) test predicts older drivers' self-report accident risk, as well as simulated driving performance. However, the PMCT is too lengthy to be a part of a battery of tests to assess fitness to drive. Therefore, we have developed a new version of this test, which takes under two minutes to administer. We assessed the motion contrast thresholds of 24 younger drivers (19-32) and 25 older drivers (65-83) with both the PMCT-10min and the PMCT-2min test and investigated if thresholds were associated with measures of simulated driving performance. Younger participants had significantly lower motion contrast thresholds than older participants and there were no significant correlations between younger participants' thresholds and any measures of driving performance. The PMCT-10min and the PMCT-2min thresholds of older drivers' predicted simulated crash risk, as well as the minimum distance of approach to all hazards. This suggests that our tests of motion processing can help predict the risk of collision or near collision in older drivers. Thresholds were also correlated with the total lane deviation time, suggesting a deficiency in processing of peripheral flow and delayed detection of adjacent cars. The PMCT-2min is an improved version of a previously validated test, and it has the potential to help assess older drivers' fitness to drive. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Triaging TIA/minor stroke patients using the ABCD2 score does not predict those with significant carotid disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, J; Isherwood, J; Eveson, D; Naylor, A R

    2012-05-01

    'Rapid Access' TIA Clinics use the ABCD(2) score to triage patients as it is not possible to see everyone with a suspected TIA TIA/minor stroke or 'carotid territory' TIA/minor stroke. Between 1.10.2008 and 31.04.2011, 2452 patients were referred to the Leicester Rapid Access TIA Service. After Stroke Physician review, 1273 (52%) were thought to have suffered a minor stroke/TIA. Of these, both FD/ED referrer and Specialist Stroke Consultant ABCD(2) scores and carotid Duplex ultrasound studies were available for 843 (66%). The yield for identifying a ≥50% stenosis or carotid occlusion was 109/843 (12.9%) in patients with 'any territory' TIA/minor stroke and 101/740 (13.6%) in those with a clinical diagnosis of 'carotid territory' TIA/minor stroke. There was no association between ABCD(2) score and the likelihood of encountering significant carotid disease and analyses of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for FD/ED referrer and stroke specialist ABCD(2) scores showed no prediction of carotid stenosis (FD/ED: AUC 0.50 (95%CI 0.44-0.55, p = 0.9), Specialist: AUC 0.51 (95%CI 0.45-0.57, p = 0.78). The ABCD(2) score was unable to identify TIA/minor stroke patients with a higher prevalence of clinically important ipsilateral carotid disease. Copyright © 2012 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Patient-specific metrics of invasiveness reveal significant prognostic benefit of resection in a predictable subset of gliomas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne L Baldock

    Full Text Available Malignant gliomas are incurable, primary brain neoplasms noted for their potential to extensively invade brain parenchyma. Current methods of clinical imaging do not elucidate the full extent of brain invasion, making it difficult to predict which, if any, patients are likely to benefit from gross total resection. Our goal was to apply a mathematical modeling approach to estimate the overall tumor invasiveness on a patient-by-patient basis and determine whether gross total resection would improve survival in patients with relatively less invasive gliomas.In 243 patients presenting with contrast-enhancing gliomas, estimates of the relative invasiveness of each patient's tumor, in terms of the ratio of net proliferation rate of the glioma cells to their net dispersal rate, were derived by applying a patient-specific mathematical model to routine pretreatment MR imaging. The effect of varying degrees of extent of resection on overall survival was assessed for cohorts of patients grouped by tumor invasiveness.We demonstrate that patients with more diffuse tumors showed no survival benefit (P = 0.532 from gross total resection over subtotal/biopsy, while those with nodular (less diffuse tumors showed a significant benefit (P = 0.00142 with a striking median survival benefit of over eight months compared to sub-totally resected tumors in the same cohort (an 80% improvement in survival time for GTR only seen for nodular tumors.These results suggest that our patient-specific, model-based estimates of tumor invasiveness have clinical utility in surgical decision making. Quantification of relative invasiveness assessed from routinely obtained pre-operative imaging provides a practical predictor of the benefit of gross total resection.

  16. Survival prediction algorithms miss significant opportunities for improvement if used for case selection in trauma quality improvement programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heim, Catherine; Cole, Elaine; West, Anita; Tai, Nigel; Brohi, Karim

    2016-09-01

    Quality improvement (QI) programs have shown to reduce preventable mortality in trauma care. Detailed review of all trauma deaths is a time and resource consuming process and calculated probability of survival (Ps) has been proposed as audit filter. Review is limited on deaths that were 'expected to survive'. However no Ps-based algorithm has been validated and no study has examined elements of preventability associated with deaths classified as 'expected'. The objective of this study was to examine whether trauma performance review can be streamlined using existing mortality prediction tools without missing important areas for improvement. We conducted a retrospective study of all trauma deaths reviewed by our trauma QI program. Deaths were classified into non-preventable, possibly preventable, probably preventable or preventable. Opportunities for improvement (OPIs) involve failure in the process of care and were classified into clinical and system deviations from standards of care. TRISS and PS were used for calculation of probability of survival. Peer-review charts were reviewed by a single investigator. Over 8 years, 626 patients were included. One third showed elements of preventability and 4% were preventable. Preventability occurred across the entire range of the calculated Ps band. Limiting review to unexpected deaths would have missed over 50% of all preventability issues and a third of preventable deaths. 37% of patients showed opportunities for improvement (OPIs). Neither TRISS nor PS allowed for reliable identification of OPIs and limiting peer-review to patients with unexpected deaths would have missed close to 60% of all issues in care. TRISS and PS fail to identify a significant proportion of avoidable deaths and miss important opportunities for process and system improvement. Based on this, all trauma deaths should be subjected to expert panel review in order to aim at a maximal output of performance improvement programs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier

  17. Minimotif Miner 3.0: database expansion and significantly improved reduction of false-positive predictions from consensus sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Tian; Merlin, Jerlin Camilus; Deverasetty, Sandeep; Gryk, Michael R; Bill, Travis J; Brooks, Andrew W; Lee, Logan Y; Rathnayake, Viraj; Ross, Christian A; Sargeant, David P; Strong, Christy L; Watts, Paula; Rajasekaran, Sanguthevar; Schiller, Martin R

    2012-01-01

    Minimotif Miner (MnM available at http://minimotifminer.org or http://mnm.engr.uconn.edu) is an online database for identifying new minimotifs in protein queries. Minimotifs are short contiguous peptide sequences that have a known function in at least one protein. Here we report the third release of the MnM database which has now grown 60-fold to approximately 300,000 minimotifs. Since short minimotifs are by their nature not very complex we also summarize a new set of false-positive filters and linear regression scoring that vastly enhance minimotif prediction accuracy on a test data set. This online database can be used to predict new functions in proteins and causes of disease.

  18. A prediction score for significant coronary artery disease in Chinese patients ≥50 years old referred for rheumatic valvular heart disease surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhenjun; Pan, Jun; Chen, Tao; Zhou, Qing; Wang, Qiang; Cao, Hailong; Fan, Fudong; Luo, Xuan; Ge, Min; Wang, Dongjin

    2018-04-01

    Our goal was to establish a prediction score and protocol for the preoperative prediction of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with rheumatic valvular heart disease. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, we validated the model based on 490 patients without a history of myocardial infarction and who underwent preoperative screening coronary angiography. Significant CAD was defined as ≥50% narrowing of the diameter of the lumen of the left main coronary artery or ≥70% narrowing of the diameter of the lumen of the left anterior descending coronary artery, left circumflex artery or right coronary artery. Significant CAD was present in 9.8% of patients. Age, smoking, diabetes mellitus, diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and ischaemia evident on an electrocardiogram were independently associated with significant CAD and were entered into the multivariate model. According to the logistic regression predictive risk score, preoperative coronary angiography is recommended in (i) postmenopausal women between 50 and 59 years of age with ≥9.1% logistic regression predictive risk score; (ii) postmenopausal women who are ≥60 years old with a logistic regression predictive risk score ≥6.6% and (iii) men ≥50 years old whose logistic regression predictive risk score was ≥2.8%. Based on this predictive model, 246 (50.2%) preoperative coronary angiograms could be safely avoided. The negative predictive value of the model was 98.8% (246 of 249). This model was accurate for the preoperative prediction of significant CAD in patients with rheumatic valvular heart disease. This model must be validated in larger cohorts and various populations.

  19. Addendum to the article: Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: Would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundschuh, Mirco; Newman, Michael C; Zubrod, Jochen P; Seitz, Frank; Rosenfeldt, Ricki R; Schulz, Ralf

    2015-03-01

    We argued recently that the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) are valuable metrics to include during null hypothesis significance testing: They inform the researcher about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes actually being true. Although commonly misunderstood, a reported p value estimates only the probability of obtaining the results or more extreme results if the null hypothesis of no effect was true. Calculations of the more informative PPV and NPV require a priori estimate of the probability (R). The present document discusses challenges of estimating R.

  20. Significant correlation between spleen volume and thrombocytopenia in liver transplant patients: a concept for predicting persistent thrombocytopenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohira, Masahiro; Ishifuro, Minoru; Ide, Kentaro; Irei, Toshimitsu; Tashiro, Hirotaka; Itamoto, Toshiyuki; Ito, Katsuhide; Chayama, Kazuaki; Asahara, Toshimasa; Ohdan, Hideki

    2009-02-01

    Interferon (IFN) therapy with or without ribavirin treatment is well established as a standard antiviral treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients. However, susceptibility to thrombocytopenia is a major obstacle for initiating or continuing this therapy, particularly in liver transplant (LTx) recipients with HCV. Studies have reported that splenectomy performed concurrently with LTx is a feasible strategy for conditioning patients for anti-HCV IFN therapy. However, the relationship between the severity of splenomegaly and alterations in the blood cytopenia in LTx recipients remains to be clarified. Here, we analyzed the relationship between spleen volume (SV) and thrombocytopenia in 45 patients who underwent LTx at Hiroshima University Hospital. The extent of pre-LTx splenomegaly [the SV to body surface area (BSA) ratio in an individual] was inversely correlated with both the post-LTx white blood cell count and platelet (PLT) count (P or= 400), persistent thrombocytopenia is predictable after LTx. (c) 2009 AASLD.

  1. The significance and predictive value of free light chains in the urine of patients with chronic inflammatory rheumatic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramlage, Carsten Paul; Froelich, Britta; Wallbach, Manuel; Minguet, Joan; Grupp, Clemens; Deutsch, Cornelia; Bramlage, Peter; Koziolek, Michael; Müller, Gerhard Anton

    2016-12-01

    In patients with rheumatic diseases, reliable markers for determining disease activity are scarce. One potential parameter is the level of immunoglobulin free light chains (FLCs), which is known to be elevated in the blood of patients with certain rheumatic diseases. Few studies have quantified FLCs in urine, a convenient source of test sample, in patients with different rheumatic diseases. We carried out a retrospective analysis of patients with rheumatic disease attending the University hospital of Goettingen, Germany. Subjects were included if they had urine levels of both κ and λ FLCs available and did not have myeloma. Data regarding systemic inflammation and kidney function were recorded, and FLC levels were correlated with inflammatory markers. Of the 382 patients with rheumatic disease, 40.1 % had chronic polyarthritis, 21.2 % connective tissue disease, 18.6 % spondyloarthritis and 15.7 % vasculitis. Elevated levels of κ FLCs were found for 84 % of patients and elevated λ for 52.7 %. For the patients with rheumatoid arthritis, FLCs correlated with C-reactive protein (κ, r = 0.368, p rheumatic disease, but not in κ/λ ratio. The correlation between FLCs and inflammatory markers in patients with rheumatoid arthritis demonstrates their potential for predicting disease activity.

  2. Combined use of serum MCP-1/IL-10 ratio and uterine artery Doppler index significantly improves the prediction of preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Shihong; Gao, Yanan; Zhang, Linlin; Wang, Yuan; Zhang, Lindong; Liu, Pingping; Liu, Ling; Chen, Juan

    2017-10-01

    Monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1, or CCL2) is a member of the chemokine subfamily involved in recruitment of monocytes in inflammatory tissues. IL-10 is a key regulator for maintaining the balance of anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory milieu at the feto-maternal interface. Doppler examination has been routinely performed for the monitoring and management of preeclampsia patients. This study evaluates the efficiency of these factors alone, or in combination, for the predication of preeclampsia. The serum levels of MCP-1 and IL-10 in 78 preeclampsia patients and 143 age-matched normal controls were measured. The Doppler ultrasonography was performed and Artery Pulsatility Index (PI) and Resistance Index (RI) were calculated for the same subjects. It was found that while the second-trimester serum MCP-1, IL-10, MCP-1/IL-10 ratio, PI, and RI showed some power in predicting preeclampsia, the combination of MCP-1/IL-10 and PI and RI accomplishes the highest efficiency, achieving an AUC of 0.973 (95% CI, 0.000-1.000, Ppreeclampsia. Future studies using a larger sample can be conducted to construct an algorithm capable of quantitative assessment on the risk of preeclampsia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Significant pre-accession factors predicting success or failure during a Marine Corps officer’s initial service obligation

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Jacob A.

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Increasing diversity and equal opportunity in the military is a congressional and executive priority. At the same time, improving recruiting practices is a priority of the commandant of the Marine Corps. In an effort to provide information to the Marine Corps that may improve recruiting practice and enable retention of a higher quality and more diverse officer corps, probit econometric models are estimated to identify significant facto...

  4. Significance of cardiac sympathetic nervous system abnormality for predicting vascular events in patients with idiopathic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akutsu, Yasushi; Kaneko, Kyouichi; Kodama, Yusuke; Li, Hui-Ling; Kawamura, Mitsuharu; Asano, Taku; Hamazaki, Yuji; Tanno, Kaoru; Kobayashi, Youichi; Suyama, Jumpei; Shinozuka, Akira; Gokan, Takehiko

    2010-01-01

    Neuronal system activity plays an important role for the prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Using 123 I metaiodobenzylguanidine ( 123 I-MIBG) scintigraphy, we investigated whether a cardiac sympathetic nervous system (SNS) abnormality would be associated with an increased risk of vascular events in patients with paroxysmal AF. 123 I-MIBG scintigraphy was performed in 69 consecutive patients (67 ± 13 years, 62% men) with paroxysmal AF who did not have structural heart disease. SNS integrity was assessed from the heart to mediastinum (H/M) ratio on delayed imaging. Serum concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) was measured before 123 I-MIBG study. During a mean of 4.5 ± 3.6 years follow-up, 19 patients had myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure (range: 0.2-11.5 years). SNS abnormality (H/M ratio <2.7) and high CRP (≥0.3 mg/dl) were associated with the vascular events (58.3% in 14 of 24 patients with SNS abnormality vs 11.1% in 5 of 45 patients without SNS abnormality, p < 0.0001, 52.4% in 11 of 21 patients with high CRP vs 16.7% in 8 of 48 patients without high CRP, p < 0.0001). After adjustment for potential confounding variables such as age, left atrial dimension and left ventricular function, SNS abnormality was an independent predictor of vascular events with a hazard ratio of 4.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-12.6, p = 0.014]. Further, SNS abnormality had an incremental and additive prognostic power in combination with high CRP with an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.1 (95% CI: 1.5-10.9, p = 0.006). SNS abnormality is predictive of vascular events in patients with idiopathic paroxysmal AF. (orig.)

  5. Significance of cardiac sympathetic nervous system abnormality for predicting vascular events in patients with idiopathic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akutsu, Yasushi; Kaneko, Kyouichi; Kodama, Yusuke; Li, Hui-Ling; Kawamura, Mitsuharu; Asano, Taku; Hamazaki, Yuji; Tanno, Kaoru; Kobayashi, Youichi [Showa University School of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Suyama, Jumpei; Shinozuka, Akira; Gokan, Takehiko [Showa University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Tokyo (Japan)

    2010-04-15

    Neuronal system activity plays an important role for the prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Using {sup 123}I metaiodobenzylguanidine ({sup 123}I-MIBG) scintigraphy, we investigated whether a cardiac sympathetic nervous system (SNS) abnormality would be associated with an increased risk of vascular events in patients with paroxysmal AF. {sup 123}I-MIBG scintigraphy was performed in 69 consecutive patients (67 {+-} 13 years, 62% men) with paroxysmal AF who did not have structural heart disease. SNS integrity was assessed from the heart to mediastinum (H/M) ratio on delayed imaging. Serum concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) was measured before {sup 123}I-MIBG study. During a mean of 4.5 {+-} 3.6 years follow-up, 19 patients had myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure (range: 0.2-11.5 years). SNS abnormality (H/M ratio <2.7) and high CRP ({>=}0.3 mg/dl) were associated with the vascular events (58.3% in 14 of 24 patients with SNS abnormality vs 11.1% in 5 of 45 patients without SNS abnormality, p < 0.0001, 52.4% in 11 of 21 patients with high CRP vs 16.7% in 8 of 48 patients without high CRP, p < 0.0001). After adjustment for potential confounding variables such as age, left atrial dimension and left ventricular function, SNS abnormality was an independent predictor of vascular events with a hazard ratio of 4.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-12.6, p = 0.014]. Further, SNS abnormality had an incremental and additive prognostic power in combination with high CRP with an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.1 (95% CI: 1.5-10.9, p = 0.006). SNS abnormality is predictive of vascular events in patients with idiopathic paroxysmal AF. (orig.)

  6. Evaluation of ischemic corticospinal tract damage by diffusion tensor MRI. Its significance to predict functional outcome of corona radiata infarct

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Hideki

    2010-01-01

    Motor impairment is one of the most frequent symptoms among stroke patients and often leads to poststroke dependency. Recent advances of diffusion tensor MR imaging made it possible to identify corticospinal tract (CST) three-dimensionally and evaluate structural damage, so precise evaluation of the ischemic CST damage became feasible.Motor impairment, lesion size and location upon diffusion weighted MR image and clinical outcome were assessed in 23 acute to subacute capsular and corona radiata infarct patients. According to the lesion size, patients were grouped into A, maximal diameter below 15 mm and B, that above 15 mm. Motor impairment was graded severe: limb movement synergy level, moderate: selective muscle activity possible and mild: isolated movements well co-ordinated, each corresponding to Brunnstrom stage 1-3, 4-5, and 6, respectively. Outcome at the time of discharge was assessed by modified Rankin Scale (mRS), discharge destination and length of hospital stay were also registered. Diffusion tensor MR imaging was conducted in 15 corona radiata infarct patients at 2.3+-2.2 days from the onset of the clinical symptoms. CST was 3-dimensionally identified with dTV. II. SR and Volume-one 1.72 and CST-FA ratio (ipsi-/contralesional CST-FA) and CST-Area% (CST lesion free area/whole CST area) were obtained at the level where ischemic damage was most prominent and correlation of these parameters to motor impairment and clinical outcome was studied. CST-FA ratio and CST-Area% were in good correlation to motor impairment at presentation. Patients with severe motor impairment had lower CST-FA ratio and CSF-Area% than those with moderate or mild. CST-FA ratio was 0.73+-0.22 in patients with poor clinical outcome (mRS 3-6) and 0.93+-0.09 with good clinical outcome (mRS 0-2) (p=0.038). Diffusion tensor MR imaging is useful in evaluating motor impairment and predicting functional outcome of corona radiata infarct patient in the acute to subacute stage. (author)

  7. Sebum and Hydration Levels in Specific Regions of Human Face Significantly Predict the Nature and Diversity of Facial Skin Microbiome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Souvik; Mitra, Rupak; Maitra, Arindam; Gupta, Satyaranjan; Kumaran, Srikala; Chakrabortty, Amit; Majumder, Partha P

    2016-10-27

    The skin microbiome varies across individuals. The causes of these variations are inadequately understood. We tested the hypothesis that inter-individual variation in facial skin microbiome can be significantly explained by variation in sebum and hydration levels in specific facial regions of humans. We measured sebum and hydration from forehead and cheek regions of healthy female volunteers (n = 30). Metagenomic DNA from skin swabs were sequenced for V3-V5 regions of 16S rRNA gene. Altogether, 34 phyla were identified; predominantly Actinobacteria (66.3%), Firmicutes (17.7%), Proteobacteria (13.1%) and Bacteroidetes (1.4%). About 1000 genera were identified; predominantly Propionibacterium (58.6%), Staphylococcus (8.6%), Streptococcus (4.0%), Corynebacterium (3.6%) and Paracoccus (3.3%). A subset (n = 24) of individuals were sampled two months later. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that cheek sebum level was the most significant predictor of microbiome composition and diversity followed by forehead hydration level; forehead sebum and cheek hydration levels were not. With increase in cheek sebum, the prevalence of Actinobacteria (p = 0.001)/Propionibacterium (p = 0.002) increased, whereas microbiome diversity decreased (Shannon Index, p = 0.032); this was opposite for other phyla/genera. These trends were reversed for forehead hydration levels. Therefore, the nature and diversity of facial skin microbiome is jointly determined by site-specific lipid and water levels in the stratum corneum.

  8. Syncope and Motor Vehicle Crash Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Numé, Anna-Karin; Gislason, Gunnar; Christiansen, Christine Benn

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE: Syncope may have serious consequences for traffic safety. Current clinical guideline recommendations on driving following syncope are primarily based on expert consensus. OBJECTIVE: To identify whether there is excess risk of motor vehicle crashes among patients with syncope compared...... vehicle crashes throughout the follow-up period. This study suggests that syncope should be considered as one of several factors in a broad assessment of fitness to drive....

  9. Visual motion perception predicts driving hazard perception ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacherez, Philippe; Au, Sandra; Wood, Joanne M

    2014-02-01

    To examine the basis of previous findings of an association between indices of driving safety and visual motion sensitivity and to examine whether this association could be explained by low-level changes in visual function. A total of 36 visually normal participants (aged 19-80 years) completed a battery of standard vision tests including visual acuity, contrast sensitivity and automated visual fields and two tests of motion perception including sensitivity for movement of a drifting Gabor stimulus and sensitivity for displacement in a random dot kinematogram (Dmin ). Participants also completed a hazard perception test (HPT), which measured participants' response times to hazards embedded in video recordings of real-world driving, which has been shown to be linked to crash risk. Dmin for the random dot stimulus ranged from -0.88 to -0.12 log minutes of arc, and the minimum drift rate for the Gabor stimulus ranged from 0.01 to 0.35 cycles per second. Both measures of motion sensitivity significantly predicted response times on the HPT. In addition, while the relationship involving the HPT and motion sensitivity for the random dot kinematogram was partially explained by the other visual function measures, the relationship with sensitivity for detection of the drifting Gabor stimulus remained significant even after controlling for these variables. These findings suggest that motion perception plays an important role in the visual perception of driving-relevant hazards independent of other areas of visual function and should be further explored as a predictive test of driving safety. Future research should explore the causes of reduced motion perception to develop better interventions to improve road safety. © 2012 The Authors. Acta Ophthalmologica © 2012 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation.

  10. The macrophage activation marker sCD163 combined with markers of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) score predicts clinically significant portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandahl, T D; McGrail, R; Møller, H J

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Noninvasive identification of significant portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis is needed in hepatology practice. AIM: To investigate whether the combination of sCD163 as a hepatic inflammation marker and the fibrosis markers of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis score (ELF) can...... predict portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We measured sCD163 and the ELF components (hyaluronic acid, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 and procollagen-III aminopeptide) in two separate cohorts of cirrhosis patients that underwent hepatic vein catheterisation. To test...... the predictive accuracy we developed a CD163-fibrosis portal hypertension score in an estimation cohort (n = 80) and validated the score in an independent cohort (n = 80). A HVPG ≥10 mmHg was considered clinically significant. RESULTS: Both sCD163 and the ELF components increased in a stepwise manner...

  11. Prostate cancer volume adds significantly to prostate-specific antigen in the prediction of early biochemical failure after external beam radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Amico, Anthony V.; Propert, Kathleen J.

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: A new clinical pretreatment quantity that closely approximates the true prostate cancer volume is defined. Methods and Materials: The cancer-specific prostate-specific antigen (PSA), PSA density, prostate cancer volume (V Ca ), and the volume fraction of the gland involved with carcinoma (V Ca fx) were calculated for 227 prostate cancer patients managed definitively with external beam radiation therapy. 1. PSA density PSA/ultrasound prostate gland volume 2. Cancer-specific PSA = PSA - [PSA from benign epithelial tissue] 3. V Ca = Cancer-specific PSA/[PSA in serum per cm 3 of cancer] 4. V Ca fx = V Ca /ultrasound prostate gland volume A Cox multiple regression analysis was used to test whether any of these-clinical pretreatment parameters added significantly to PSA in predicting early postradiation PSA failure. Results: The prostate cancer volume (p = 0.039) and the volume fraction of the gland involved by carcinoma (p = 0.035) significantly added to the PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. Conversely, the PSA density and the cancer-specific PSA did not add significantly (p > 0.05) to PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. The 20-month actuarial PSA failure-free rates for patients with calculated tumor volumes of ≤0.5 cm 3 , 0.5-4.0 cm 3 , and >4.0 cm 3 were 92, 80, and 47%, respectively (p = 0.00004). Conclusion: The volume of prostate cancer (V Ca ) and the resulting volume fraction of cancer both added significantly to PSA in their ability to predict for early postradiation PSA failure. These new parameters may be used to select patients in prospective randomized trials that examine the efficacy of combining radiation and androgen ablative therapy in patients with clinically localized disease, who are at high risk for early postradiation PSA failure

  12. Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

    2018-03-01

    This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

  13. Validation of three noninvasive laboratory variables to predict significant fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C in Saudi Arabia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ado, Ayman A.; Al-Swat, Khalid; Azzam, N.; Al-Faleh, Faleh; Ahmed, S.

    2007-01-01

    We tested the clinical utility of the platelet count, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio, and the AST to platelet ratio index (APRI) score in predicting the presence or absence of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C in Saudi Arabia. Liver biopsy procedures performed on chronic hepatitis C patients in our gastroenterology unit at King Khalid University Hospital were traced form records between 1998 to 2003. The hospital computer database was then accessed and detailed laboratory parameters obtained. By plotting receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), three selected models (platelet count, AST/ALT ratio and the APRI score) were compared in terms of the best variable to predict significant fibrosis. Two hundred and forty-six patients with hepatitis C were included in this analysis. Overall, 26% of patients had advanced fibrosis. When comparing the three above mentioned prediction models, APRI score was the one associated with the highest area under the curve (AUC) = 0.812 (95%Cl, 0.756-0.868) on the ROC curves, compared to the platelet count and AST/ALT ratio, which yielded an AUC of 0.783 (0.711-0.855) and 0.716 (0.642-0.789), respectively. The APRI score seemed to be the best predictive variable for the presence or absence of advanced fibrosis in Saudi hepatitis C patients. (author)

  14. Clinical Significance of the Prognostic Nutritional Index for Predicting Short- and Long-Term Surgical Outcomes After Gastrectomy: A Retrospective Analysis of 7781 Gastric Cancer Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jee Youn; Kim, Hyoung-Il; Kim, You-Na; Hong, Jung Hwa; Alshomimi, Saeed; An, Ji Yeong; Cheong, Jae-Ho; Hyung, Woo Jin; Noh, Sung Hoon; Kim, Choong-Bai

    2016-05-01

    To evaluate the predictive and prognostic significance of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in a large cohort of gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy.Assessing a patient's immune and nutritional status, PNI has been reported as a predictive marker for surgical outcomes in various types of cancer.We retrospectively reviewed data from a prospectively maintained database of 7781 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy from January 2001 to December 2010 at a single center. From this data, we analyzed clinicopathologic characteristics, PNI, and short- and long-term surgical outcomes for each patient. We used the PNI value for the 10th percentile (46.70) of the study cohort as a cut-off for dividing patients into low and high PNI groups.Regarding short-term outcomes, multivariate analysis showed a low PNI (odds ratio [OR] = 1.505, 95% CI = 1.212-1.869, P cancer recurrence.

  15. Diagnostic value of thallium-201 myocardial perfusion IQ-SPECT without and with computed tomography-based attenuation correction to predict clinically significant and insignificant fractional flow reserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Haruki; Takahashi, Teruyuki; Ohashi, Norihiko; Tanaka, Koichi; Okada, Takenori; Kihara, Yasuki

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The aim of this study was to clarify the predictive value of fractional flow reserve (FFR) determined by myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) using thallium (Tl)-201 IQ-SPECT without and with computed tomography-based attenuation correction (CT-AC) for patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). We assessed 212 angiographically identified diseased vessels using adenosine-stress Tl-201 MPI-IQ-SPECT/CT in 84 consecutive, prospectively identified patients with stable CAD. We compared the FFR in 136 of the 212 diseased vessels using visual semiquantitative interpretations of corresponding territories on MPI-IQ-SPECT images without and with CT-AC. FFR inversely correlated most accurately with regional summed difference scores (rSDS) in images without and with CT-AC (r = −0.584 and r = −0.568, respectively, both P system can predict FFR at an optimal cut-off of <0.80, and we propose a novel application of CT-AC to MPI-IQ-SPECT for predicting clinically significant and insignificant FFR even in nonobese patients. PMID:29390486

  16. Useful field of view predicts driving in the presence of distracters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Joanne M; Chaparro, Alex; Lacherez, Philippe; Hickson, Louise

    2012-04-01

    The Useful Field of View (UFOV) test has been shown to be highly effective in predicting crash risk among older adults. An important question which we examined in this study is whether this association is due to the ability of the UFOV to predict difficulties in attention-demanding driving situations that involve either visual or auditory distracters. Participants included 92 community-living adults (mean age 73.6 ± 5.4 years; range 65-88 years) who completed all three subtests of the UFOV involving assessment of visual processing speed (subtest 1), divided attention (subtest 2), and selective attention (subtest 3); driving safety risk was also classified using the UFOV scoring system. Driving performance was assessed separately on a closed-road circuit while driving under three conditions: no distracters, visual distracters, and auditory distracters. Driving outcome measures included road sign recognition, hazard detection, gap perception, time to complete the course, and performance on the distracter tasks. Those rated as safe on the UFOV (safety rating categories 1 and 2), as well as those responding faster than the recommended cut-off on the selective attention subtest (350 msec), performed significantly better in terms of overall driving performance and also experienced less interference from distracters. Of the three UFOV subtests, the selective attention subtest best predicted overall driving performance in the presence of distracters. Older adults who were rated as higher risk on the UFOV, particularly on the selective attention subtest, demonstrated poorest driving performance in the presence of distracters. This finding suggests that the selective attention subtest of the UFOV may be differentially more effective in predicting driving difficulties in situations of divided attention which are commonly associated with crashes.

  17. Clinical and angiographic predictors of haemodynamically significant angiographic lesions: development and validation of a risk score to predict positive fractional flow reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sareen, Nishtha; Baber, Usman; Kezbor, Safwan; Sayseng, Sonny; Aquino, Melissa; Mehran, Roxana; Sweeny, Joseph; Barman, Nitin; Kini, Annapoorna; Sharma, Samin K

    2017-04-07

    Coronary revascularisation based upon physiological evaluation of lesions improves clinical outcomes. Angiographic or visual stenosis assessment alone is insufficient in predicting haemodynamic stenosis severity by fractional flow reserve (FFR) and therefore cannot be used to guide revascularisation, particularly in the lesion subset system formulated. Of 1,023 consecutive lesions (883 patients), 314 (31%) were haemodynamically significant. Characteristics associated with FFR ≤0.8 include male gender, higher SYNTAX score, lesions ≥20 mm, stenosis >50%, bifurcation, calcification, absence of tortuosity and smaller reference diameter. A user-friendly integer score was developed with the five variables demonstrating the strongest association. On prospective validation (in 279 distinct lesions), the increasing value of the score correlated well with increasing haemodynamic significance (C-statistic 0.85). We identified several clinical and angiographic characteristics and formulated a scoring system to guide the approach to intermediate lesions. This may translate into cost savings. Larger studies with prospective validation are required to confirm our results.

  18. Mid-Treatment Sleep Duration Predicts Clinically Significant Knee Osteoarthritis Pain reduction at 6 months: Effects From a Behavioral Sleep Medicine Clinical Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salwen, Jessica K; Smith, Michael T; Finan, Patrick H

    2017-02-01

    To determine the relative influence of sleep continuity (sleep efficiency, sleep onset latency, total sleep time [TST], and wake after sleep onset) on clinical pain outcomes within a trial of cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I) for patients with comorbid knee osteoarthritis and insomnia. Secondary analyses were performed on data from 74 patients with comorbid insomnia and knee osteoarthritis who completed a randomized clinical trial of 8-session multicomponent CBT-I versus an active behavioral desensitization control condition (BD), including a 6-month follow-up assessment. Data used herein include daily diaries of sleep parameters, actigraphy data, and self-report questionnaires administered at specific time points. Patients who reported at least 30% improvement in self-reported pain from baseline to 6-month follow-up were considered responders (N = 31). Pain responders and nonresponders did not differ significantly at baseline across any sleep continuity measures. At mid-treatment, only TST predicted pain response via t tests and logistic regression, whereas other measures of sleep continuity were nonsignificant. Recursive partitioning analyses identified a minimum cut-point of 382 min of TST achieved at mid-treatment in order to best predict pain improvements 6-month posttreatment. Actigraphy results followed the same pattern as daily diary-based results. Clinically significant pain reductions in response to both CBT-I and BD were optimally predicted by achieving approximately 6.5 hr sleep duration by mid-treatment. Thus, tailoring interventions to increase TST early in treatment may be an effective strategy to promote long-term pain reductions. More comprehensive research on components of behavioral sleep medicine treatments that contribute to pain response is warranted. © Sleep Research Society 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Linking Compositional and Functional Predictions to Decipher the Biogeochemical Significance in DFAA Turnover of Abundant Bacterioplankton Lineages in the North Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Wemheuer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Deciphering the ecological traits of abundant marine bacteria is a major challenge in marine microbial ecology. In the current study, we linked compositional and functional predictions to elucidate such traits for abundant bacterioplankton lineages in the North Sea. For this purpose, we investigated entire and active bacterioplankton composition along a transect ranging from the German Bight to the northern North Sea by pyrotag sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA genes and transcripts. Functional profiles were inferred from 16S rRNA data using Tax4Fun. Bacterioplankton communities were dominated by well-known marine lineages including clusters/genera that are affiliated with the Roseobacter group and the Flavobacteria. Variations in community composition and function were significantly explained by measured environmental and microbial properties. Turnover of dissolved free amino acids (DFAA showed the strongest correlation to community composition and function. We applied multinomial models, which enabled us to identify bacterial lineages involved in DFAA turnover. For instance, the genus Planktomarina was more abundant at higher DFAA turnover rates, suggesting its vital role in amino acid degradation. Functional predictions further indicated that Planktomarina is involved in leucine and isoleucine degradation. Overall, our results provide novel insights into the biogeochemical significance of abundant bacterioplankton lineages in the North Sea.

  20. Linking Compositional and Functional Predictions to Decipher the Biogeochemical Significance in DFAA Turnover of Abundant Bacterioplankton Lineages in the North Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wemheuer, Bernd; Wemheuer, Franziska; Meier, Dimitri; Billerbeck, Sara; Giebel, Helge-Ansgar; Simon, Meinhard; Scherber, Christoph; Daniel, Rolf

    2017-11-05

    Deciphering the ecological traits of abundant marine bacteria is a major challenge in marine microbial ecology. In the current study, we linked compositional and functional predictions to elucidate such traits for abundant bacterioplankton lineages in the North Sea. For this purpose, we investigated entire and active bacterioplankton composition along a transect ranging from the German Bight to the northern North Sea by pyrotag sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA genes and transcripts. Functional profiles were inferred from 16S rRNA data using Tax4Fun. Bacterioplankton communities were dominated by well-known marine lineages including clusters/genera that are affiliated with the Roseobacter group and the Flavobacteria . Variations in community composition and function were significantly explained by measured environmental and microbial properties. Turnover of dissolved free amino acids (DFAA) showed the strongest correlation to community composition and function. We applied multinomial models, which enabled us to identify bacterial lineages involved in DFAA turnover. For instance, the genus Planktomarina was more abundant at higher DFAA turnover rates, suggesting its vital role in amino acid degradation. Functional predictions further indicated that Planktomarina is involved in leucine and isoleucine degradation. Overall, our results provide novel insights into the biogeochemical significance of abundant bacterioplankton lineages in the North Sea.

  1. Comparison of the significance of the RENAL, PADUA, and C-index nephrometric scales for the prediction of the complexity of laparoscopic nephrectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. G. Alyaev

    2018-01-01

    time, extent of intraoperative blood loss and possibility of development after complications (p = 0.049; 0.028; 0.046. None of indices were significant for multivariant analysis of prognosis the duration of laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. The indices  of the RENAL (p = 0.032 and C-index (p = 0.040 nephrometry score systems were significant for univariate analysis of prognosis the duration of the laparoscopic partial nephrectomy.Conclusion. The usage of RENAL, PADUA, C-index nephrometry score systems is useful for the prediction of warm ischaemic time, extent  of blood loss, duration of operative measure and possibility of rate of postoperative complications at laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. According to our data the index of RENAL nephrometry scoring system has the highest predictive value. Applications of 3D modelling for counting nephrometry indices in preoperative period makes the process of counting balls easier on all three nephrometry score systems.

  2. A proposal for a pharmacokinetic interaction significance classification system (PISCS) based on predicted drug exposure changes and its potential application to alert classifications in product labelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisaka, Akihiro; Kusama, Makiko; Ohno, Yoshiyuki; Sugiyama, Yuichi; Suzuki, Hiroshi

    2009-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are one of the major causes of adverse events in pharmacotherapy, and systematic prediction of the clinical relevance of DDIs is an issue of significant clinical importance. In a previous study, total exposure changes of many substrate drugs of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 caused by coadministration of inhibitor drugs were successfully predicted by using in vivo information. In order to exploit these predictions in daily pharmacotherapy, the clinical significance of the pharmacokinetic changes needs to be carefully evaluated. The aim of the present study was to construct a pharmacokinetic interaction significance classification system (PISCS) in which the clinical significance of DDIs was considered with pharmacokinetic changes in a systematic manner. Furthermore, the classifications proposed by PISCS were compared in a detailed manner with current alert classifications in the product labelling or the summary of product characteristics used in Japan, the US and the UK. A matrix table was composed by stratifying two basic parameters of the prediction: the contribution ratio of CYP3A4 to the oral clearance of substrates (CR), and the inhibition ratio of inhibitors (IR). The total exposure increase was estimated for each cell in the table by associating CR and IR values, and the cells were categorized into nine zones according to the magnitude of the exposure increase. Then, correspondences between the DDI significance and the zones were determined for each drug group considering the observed exposure changes and the current classification in the product labelling. Substrate drugs of CYP3A4 selected from three therapeutic groups, i.e. HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins), calcium-channel antagonists/blockers (CCBs) and benzodiazepines (BZPs), were analysed as representative examples. The product labelling descriptions of drugs in Japan, US and UK were obtained from the websites of each regulatory body. Among 220

  3. Predicting weight status stability and change from fifth grade to eighth grade: the significant role of adolescents' social-emotional well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yiting; Gable, Sara

    2013-04-01

    The primary objective of this study was to predict weight status stability and change across the transition to adolescence using parent reports of child and household routines and teacher and child self-reports of social-emotional development. Data were from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K), a nationally representative sample of children who entered kindergarten during 1998-1999 and were followed through eighth grade. At fifth grade, parents reported on child and household routines and the study child and his/her primary classroom teacher reported on the child's social-emotional functioning. At fifth and eighth grade, children were directly weighed and measured at school. Nine mutually-exclusive weight trajectory groups were created to capture stability or change in weight status from fifth to eighth grade: (1) stable obese (ObeSta); (2) obese to overweight (ObePos1); (3) obese to healthy (ObePos2); (4) stable overweight (OverSta); (5) overweight to healthy (OverPos); (6) overweight to obese (OverNeg); (7) stable healthy (HelSta); (8) healthy to overweight (HelNeg1); and (9) healthy to obese (HelNeg2). Except for breakfast consumption at home, school-provided lunches, nighttime sleep duration, household and child routines did not predict stability or change in weight status. Instead, weight status trajectory across the transition to adolescence was significantly predicted by measures of social-emotional functioning at fifth grade. Assessing children's social-emotional well-being in addition to their lifestyle routines during the transition to adolescence is a noteworthy direction for adolescent obesity prevention and intervention. Copyright © 2013 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Clinical significance of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio as an early predictive marker for adverse outcomes in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Tae Joo; Park, Ji Young

    2017-06-07

    To investigated the prognostic value of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with acute pancreatitis and determined an optimal cut-off value for the prediction of adverse outcomes in these patients. We retrospectively analyzed 490 patients with acute pancreatitis diagnosed between March 2007 and December 2012. NLRs were calculated at admission and 24, 48, and 72 h after admission. Patients were grouped according to acute pancreatitis severity and organ failure occurrence, and a comparative analysis was performed to compare the NLR between groups. Among the 490 patients, 70 had severe acute pancreatitis with 31 experiencing organ failure. The severe acute pancreatitis group had a significantly higher NLR than the mild acute pancreatitis group on all 4 d (median, 6.14, 6.71, 5.70, and 4.00 vs 4.74, 4.47, 3.20, and 3.30, respectively, P pancreatitis. Elevated baseline NLR correlates with severe acute pancreatitis and organ failure.

  5. Comparison of FLOWTRAN predictions of onset of significant voiding (OSV) to Savannah River Heat Transfer Laboratory subcooled boiling flow instability measurements, Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurinat, J.E.

    1988-10-01

    The onset of flow instability (OFI) was measured in the first of a scheduled series of subcooled boiling tests at the Savannah River Heat Transfer Laboratory (HTL). This report summarizes the benchmarking of predictions of the onset of significant voiding (OSV) using Version 16 of the FLOWTRANΩ reactor limits code against the HTL measurements. This study confirms that, for this series of HTL subcooled boiling tests, the Saha-Zuber OSV correlation was a conservative indicator of OFI for Peclet numbers between 30,000 and 80,000. The Saha-Zuber correlation was not a conservative indicator of OFI for Peclet numbers below 30,000. A conservative bound to the Saha-Zuber correlation (the Saha-Zuber constant Stanton number criterion -- 30%) was agreed to at a meeting of SRL, DOE, and the DOE EH and DP review panels. This bound was a conservative indicator of OFI for all measurements in this study

  6. [Predictive factors of clinically significant drug-drug interactions among regimens based on protease inhibitors, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and raltegravir].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervero, Miguel; Torres, Rafael; Jusdado, Juan José; Pastor, Susana; Agud, Jose Luis

    2016-04-15

    To determine the prevalence and types of clinically significant drug-drug interactions (CSDI) in the drug regimens of HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral treatment. retrospective review of database. Centre: Hospital Universitario Severo Ochoa, Infectious Unit. one hundred and forty-two participants followed by one of the authors were selected from January 1985 to December 2014. from their outpatient medical records we reviewed information from the last available visit of the participants, in relation to HIV infection, comorbidities, demographics and the drugs that they were receiving; both antiretroviral drugs and drugs not related to HIV infection. We defined CSDI from the information sheet and/or database on antiretroviral drug interactions of the University of Liverpool (http://www.hiv-druginteractions.org) and we developed a diagnostic tool to predict the possibility of CSDI. By multivariate logistic regression analysis and by estimating the diagnostic performance curve obtained, we identified a quick tool to predict the existence of drug interactions. Of 142 patients, 39 (29.11%) had some type of CSDI and in 11.2% 2 or more interactions were detected. In only one patient the combination of drugs was contraindicated (this patient was receiving darunavir/r and quetiapine). In multivariate analyses, predictors of CSDI were regimen type (PI or NNRTI) and the use of 3 or more non-antiretroviral drugs (AUC 0.886, 95% CI 0.828 to 0.944; P=.0001). The risk was 18.55 times in those receiving NNRTI and 27,95 times in those receiving IP compared to those taking raltegravir. Drug interactions, including those defined as clinically significant, are common in HIV-infected patients treated with antiretroviral drugs, and the risk is greater in IP-based regimens. Raltegravir-based prescribing, especially in patients who receive at least 3 non-HIV drugs could avoid interactions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. Independent predictive factors for significant liver histological changes in patients with HBeAg-positive high-viral-load chronic HBV infection and a normal alanine aminotransferase level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LI Qiang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective To investigate the independent predictive factors for significant liver histological changes (SLHCs in patients with HBeAg-positive high-viral-load chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV infection and a normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT level. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of 116 previously untreated patients with HBeAg-positive high-viral-load (HBV DNA≥105 copies/ml chronic HBV infection and a normal ALT level (<50 U/L who were hospitalized in Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center Affiliated to Fudan University from June 2013 to August 2015. The definition of SLHCs was inflammation ≥G2 and/or fibrosis≥S2. The t-test or Mann-Whitney U rank sum test was used for comparison of continuous data between groups, and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to determine independent predictive factors for SLHCs. ResultsOf all the 116 patients, 47(40.5% had SLHCs. The multivariate analysis showed that age (OR=2.828, P<0.05, ALT (OR=1.011, P<0.05, and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT (OR=1.089, P<0.05 were independent predictors for SLHCs in patients with HBeAg-positive high-viral-load chronic HBV infection and a normal ALT level. The patients aged ≤30 years had a significantly lower incidence rate of SLHCs than those aged>30 years (21.6% vs 49.4%, χ2=6.42, P=0.015, the patients with ALT ≤30 U/L had a significantly lower incidence rate of SLHCs than those with 30 U/L<ALT≤50 U/L (17.6% vs 50.0%, χ2=19.86, P<0.001, and the patients with GGT≤40 U/L had a significantly lower incidence rate of SLHCs than those with GGT>40 U/L (28.8% vs 66.7%, χ2=28.63, P<0.001. ConclusionIn patients with HBeAg-positive high-viral-load chronic HBV infection and a normal ALT level, those with an age of>30 years, ALT>30 U/L, and GGT>40 U/L tend to develop SLHCs and need liver biopsy.

  8. Prediction of FAD binding sites in electron transport proteins according to efficient radial basis function networks and significant amino acid pairs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Nguyen-Quoc-Khanh; Ou, Yu-Yen

    2016-07-30

    Cellular respiration is a catabolic pathway for producing adenosine triphosphate (ATP) and is the most efficient process through which cells harvest energy from consumed food. When cells undergo cellular respiration, they require a pathway to keep and transfer electrons (i.e., the electron transport chain). Due to oxidation-reduction reactions, the electron transport chain produces a transmembrane proton electrochemical gradient. In case protons flow back through this membrane, this mechanical energy is converted into chemical energy by ATP synthase. The convert process is involved in producing ATP which provides energy in a lot of cellular processes. In the electron transport chain process, flavin adenine dinucleotide (FAD) is one of the most vital molecules for carrying and transferring electrons. Therefore, predicting FAD binding sites in the electron transport chain is vital for helping biologists understand the electron transport chain process and energy production in cells. We used an independent data set to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, which had an accuracy of 69.84 %. We compared the performance of the proposed method in analyzing two newly discovered electron transport protein sequences with that of the general FAD binding predictor presented by Mishra and Raghava and determined that the accuracy of the proposed method improved by 9-45 % and its Matthew's correlation coefficient was 0.14-0.5. Furthermore, the proposed method enabled reducing the number of false positives significantly and can provide useful information for biologists. We developed a method that is based on PSSM profiles and SAAPs for identifying FAD binding sites in newly discovered electron transport protein sequences. This approach achieved a significant improvement after we added SAAPs to PSSM features to analyze FAD binding proteins in the electron transport chain. The proposed method can serve as an effective tool for predicting FAD binding sites in electron

  9. The Predictive and Prognostic Significance of c-erb-B2, EGFR, PTEN, mTOR, PI3K, p27, and ERCC1 Expression in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassullu, Nuray; Turkmen, Ilknur; Dayangac, Murat; Yagiz Korkmaz, Pinar; Yasar, Reyhan; Akyildiz, Murat; Yaprak, Onur; Tokat, Yaman; Yuzer, Yildiray; Bulbul Dogusoy, Gulen

    2012-01-01

    Background Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common fatal cancer and an important healthcare problem worldwide. There are many studies describing the prognostic and predictive effects of epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (c-erb-B2) and epidermal growth factor receptor 1 (EGFR), transmembrane tyrosine kinases that influence cell growth and proliferation in many tumors. Objectives The current study aimed to investigate the expression levels of c-erb-B2, EGFR, PTEN, mTOR, PI3K, p27, and ERCC1 in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and their correlation with other clinicopathologic features. Patients and Methods Fifty HCC cases were stained immunohistochemically with these markers. Correlations between the markers and clinicopathologic characteristics and survival rates were analyzed. Results No membranous c-erb-B2 staining was seen, whereas cytoplasmic positivity was present in 92% of HCC samples, membranous EGFR was observed in 40%, PI3K was found in all samples, and mTOR was seen in 30%, whereas reduced or absent PTEN expression was observed in 56% of samples and loss of p27 was seen in 92% of the cases. c-erb-B2 and mTOR overexpression, as well as reduced expression of p27, all correlated with multiple tumors (P = 0.041, P < 0.001, and P < 0.001, respectively). P27 loss, and mTOR and EGFR positivity were significantly correlated with AFP (P = 0.047, P = 0.004, and P = 0.008, respectively). Angiolymphatic invasion was more commonly seen in EGFR- and ERCC1-positive cases (P = 0.003 and P = 0.005). EGFR was also correlated with histological grade (P = 0.039). No significant correlations were found among PTEN , PI3K, and the clinicopathological parameters. Disease-free or overall survival rates showed significant differences among therapy modalities, AFP levels, angiolymphatic or lymph node invasions, and ERCC1 and p27 expression levels (P < 0.05). Conclusions c-erb-B2, EGFR, mTOR, ERCC1 overexpression levels, and loss of p27 may play roles in

  10. Predicting meaningful outcomes to medication and self-help treatments for binge-eating disorder in primary care: The significance of early rapid response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilo, Carlos M; White, Marney A; Masheb, Robin M; Gueorguieva, Ralitza

    2015-04-01

    We examined rapid response among obese patients with binge-eating disorder (BED) in a randomized clinical trial testing antiobesity medication and self-help cognitive-behavioral therapy (shCBT), alone and in combination, in primary-care settings. One hundred four obese patients with BED were randomly assigned to 1 of 4 treatments: sibutramine, placebo, shCBT + sibutramine, or shCBT + placebo. Treatments were delivered by generalist primary-care physicians and the medications were given double-blind. Independent assessments were performed by trained and monitored doctoral research clinicians monthly throughout treatment, posttreatment (4 months), and at 6- and 12-month follow-ups (i.e., 16 months after randomization). Rapid response, defined as ≥65% reduction in binge eating by the fourth treatment week, was used to predict outcomes. Rapid response characterized 47% of patients, was unrelated to demographic and baseline clinical characteristics, and was significantly associated, prospectively, with remission from binge eating at posttreatment (51% vs. 9% for nonrapid responders), 6-month (53% vs. 23.6%), and 12-month (46.9% vs. 23.6%) follow-ups. Mixed-effects model analyses revealed that rapid response was significantly associated with greater decreases in binge-eating or eating-disorder psychopathology, depression, and percent weight loss. Our findings, based on a diverse obese patient group receiving medication and shCBT for BED in primary-care settings, indicate that patients who have a rapid response achieve good clinical outcomes through 12-month follow-ups after ending treatment. Rapid response represents a strong prognostic indicator of clinically meaningful outcomes, even in low-intensity medication and self-help interventions. Rapid response has important clinical implications for stepped-care treatment models for BED. clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00537810 (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Significance of change in serum bilirubin in predicting left ventricular reverse remodeling and outcomes in heart failure patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoda, Junya; Ishikawa, Toshiyuki; Matsumoto, Katsumi; Iguchi, Kohei; Matsushita, Hirooki; Ogino, Yutaka; Taguchi, Yuka; Sugano, Teruyasu; Ishigami, Tomoaki; Kimura, Kazuo; Tamura, Kouichi

    2017-11-01

    Research on the correlation of serum bilirubin level with cardiac function as well as outcomes in heart failure patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) has not yet been reported. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between change in serum bilirubin level and left ventricular reverse remodeling, and also to clarify the impact of bilirubin change on clinical outcomes in CRT patients. We evaluated 105 consecutive patients who underwent CRT. Patients who had no serum total-bilirubin data at both baseline and 3-9 months' follow-up or had died less than 3 months after CRT implantation were excluded. Accordingly, a total of 69 patients were included in the present analysis. The patients were divided into two groups: decreased bilirubin group (serum total-bilirubin level at follow-up≤that at baseline; n=48) and increased bilirubin group (serum total-bilirubin level at follow-up>that at baseline; n=21). Mean follow-up period was 39.3 months. In the decreased bilirubin group, mean left ventricular end-systolic diameter decreased from 54.5mm to 50.2mm (p=0.001) and mean left ventricular ejection fraction increased significantly from 29.8% to 37.0% (p=0.001). In the increased bilirubin group, there was no significant change in echocardiographic parameters from baseline to follow-up. In Kaplan-Meyer analysis, cardiac mortality combined with heart failure hospitalization in the increased bilirubin group was significantly higher than that in the decreased bilirubin group (log-rank p=0.018). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that increased bilirubin was an independent predictor of cardiac mortality combined with heart failure hospitalization (OR=2.66, p=0.023). The change in serum bilirubin is useful for assessment of left ventricular reverse remodeling and prediction of outcomes in heart failure patients with CRT. Copyright © 2017 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. In vitro and in vivo percutaneous absorption of retinol from cosmetic formulations: Significance of the skin reservoir and prediction of systemic absorption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yourick, Jeffrey J.; Jung, Connie T.; Bronaugh, Robert L.

    2008-01-01

    The percutaneous absorption of retinol (Vitamin A) from cosmetic formulations was studied to predict systemic absorption and to understand the significance of the skin reservoir in in vitro absorption studies. Viable skin from fuzzy rat or human subjects was assembled in flow-through diffusion cells for in vitro absorption studies. In vivo absorption studies using fuzzy rats were performed in glass metabolism cages for collection of urine, feces, and body content. Retinol (0.3%) formulations (hydroalcoholic gel and oil-in-water emulsion) containing 3 H-retinol were applied and absorption was measured at 24 or 72 h. All percentages reported are % of applied dose. In vitro studies using human skin and the gel and emulsion vehicles found 0.3 and 1.3% retinol, respectively, in receptor fluid at 24 h. Levels of absorption in the receptor fluid increased over 72 h with the gel and emulsion vehicles. Using the gel vehicle, in vitro rat skin studies found 23% in skin and 6% in receptor fluid at 24 h, while 72-h studies found 18% in skin and 13% in receptor fluid. Thus, significant amounts of retinol remained in rat skin at 24 h and decreased over 72 h, with proportional increases in receptor fluid. In vivo rat studies with the gel found 4% systemic absorption of retinol after 24 h and systemic absorption did not increase at 72 h. Retinol remaining in rat skin after in vivo application was 18% and 13% of the applied dermal dose after 24 and 72 h, respectively. Similar observations were made with the oil-in water emulsion vehicle in the rat. Retinol formed a reservoir in rat skin both in vivo and in vitro. Little additional retinol was bioavailable after 24 h. Comparison of these in vitro and in vivo results for absorption through rat skin indicates that the 24-h in vitro receptor fluid value accurately estimated 24-h in vivo systemic absorption. Therefore, the best single estimate of retinol systemic absorption from in vitro human skin studies is the 24-h receptor fluid

  13. The Significance of the PD-L1 Expression in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: Trenchant Double Swords as Predictive and Prognostic Markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, Kazuki; Toyokawa, Gouji; Shoji, Fumihiro; Okamoto, Tatsuro; Maehara, Yoshihiko

    2018-03-01

    Lung cancer is the leading cause of death due to cancer worldwide. Surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy have been the standard treatment for lung cancer, and targeted molecular therapy has greatly improved the clinical course of patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) harboring driver mutations, such as in epidermal growth factor receptor and anaplastic lymphoma kinase genes. Despite advances in such therapies, the prognosis of patients with NSCLC without driver oncogene mutations remains poor. Immunotherapy targeting programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) and programmed cell death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) has recently been shown to improve the survival in advanced NSCLC. The PD-L1 expression on the surface of tumor cells has emerged as a potential biomarker for predicting responses to immunotherapy and prognosis after surgery in NSCLC. However, the utility of PD-L1 expression as a predictive and prognostic biomarker remains controversial because of the existence of various PD-L1 antibodies, scoring systems, and positivity cutoffs. In this review, we summarize the data from representative clinical trials of PD-1/PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitors in NSCLC and previous reports on the association between PD-L1 expression and clinical outcomes in patients with NSCLC. Furthermore, we discuss the future perspectives of immunotherapy and immune checkpoint factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Non-invasive imaging of myocardial bridge by coronary computed tomography angiography: the value of transluminal attenuation gradient to predict significant dynamic compression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Yuehua; Yu, Mengmeng; Zhang, Jiayin; Li, Minghua [Shanghai Jiao Tong University Affiliated Sixth People' s Hospital, Institute of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Shanghai (China); Lu, Zhigang; Wei, Meng [Shanghai Jiao Tong University Affiliated Sixth People' s Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Shanghai (China)

    2017-05-15

    To study the diagnostic value of transluminal attenuation gradient (TAG) measured by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) for identifying relevant dynamic compression of myocardial bridge (MB). Patients with confirmed MB who underwent both CCTA and ICA within one month were retrospectively included. TAG was defined as the linear regression coefficient between luminal attenuation and distance. The TAG of MB vessel, length and depth of MB were measured and correlated with the presence and degree of dynamic compression observed at ICA. Systolic compression ≥50 % was considered significant. 302 patients with confirmed MB lesions were included. TAG was lowest (-17.4 ± 6.7 HU/10 mm) in patients with significant dynamic compression and highest in patients without MB compression (-9.5 ± 4.3 HU/10 mm, p < 0.001). Linear correlation revealed relation between the percentage of systolic compression and TAG (Pearson correlation, r = -0.52, p < 0.001) and no significant relation between the percentage of systolic compression and MB depth or length. ROC curve analysis determined the best cut-off value of TAG as -14.8HU/10 mm (area under curve = 0.813, 95 % confidence interval = 0.764-0.855, p < 0.001), which yielded high diagnostic accuracy (82.1 %, 248/302). The degree of ICA-assessed systolic compression of MB significantly correlates with TAG but not MB depth or length. (orig.)

  15. CXCR4 expression varies significantly among different subtypes of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) and its low expression or hypermethylation might predict favorable overall survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xinlong; Shang, Feng; Zhu, Weidong; Lin, Qingtang

    2017-09-01

    CXCR4 is an oncogene in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) but the mechanism of its dysregulation and its prognostic value in GBM have not been fully understood. Bioinformatic analysis was performed by using R2 and the UCSC Xena browser based on data from GSE16011 in GEO datasets and in GBM cohort in TCGA database (TCGA-GBM). Kaplan Meier curves of overall survival (OS) were generated to assess the association between CXCR4 expression/methylation and OS in patients with GBM. GBM patients with high CXCR4 expression had significantly worse 5 and 10 yrs OS (p GBM subtypes, there was an inverse relationship between overall DNA methylation and CXCR4 expression. CXCR4 expression was significantly lower in CpG island methylation phenotype (CIMP) group than in non CIMP group. Log rank test results showed that patients with high CXCR4 methylation (first tertile) had significantly better 5 yrs OS (p = 0.038). CXCR4 expression is regulated by DNA methylation in GBM and its low expression or hypermethylation might indicate favorable OS in GBM patients.

  16. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  17. Ability of One-Dimensional Hairsine-Rose Erosion Model to Predict Sediment Transport over a Soil with Significant Surface Stones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomaa, S.; Barry, D. A.; Sander, G. C.; Parlange, J.-Y.; Heng, B. C. P.; Tromp-van Meerveld, H. J.

    2010-05-01

    Surface stones affect erosion rates by reducing raindrop-driven detachment and protecting the original soil against overland flow induced-hydraulic stress. Numerous studies have shown that the effect of surface stones on erosion depends on both the stone characteristics (e.g., size, distribution) and the soil properties. The aim of this study was (i) to quantify how the stone characteristics can affect the total sediment concentration and the concentrations of the individual size classes, (ii) to test if stones affect preferentially a particular size class within the eroded sediment and (iii) to determine whether the 1D Hairsine-Rose (H-R) erosion model can represent the experimental data. A series of laboratory experiments were conducted using the 2 m × 6 m EPFL erosion flume for a high rainfall intensity (60 mm/h) event on a gentle slope (2.2%). The flume was divided into two identical 1-m wide flumes. This separation was done to allow simultaneous replicate experiments. Experiments were conducted with different configurations and scenarios (stone coverage, size and emplacement). Three coverage proportions (20%, 40%, and 70%), two stone diameters (3-4 and 6-7 cm) and two emplacement types (topsoil and partially embedded) were tested. For each experiment, the total sediment concentration, the concentration for the individual size classes, and the flume discharge were measured. Infiltration rates were measured at different depths and locations. A high resolution laser scanner provided details of the surface change due to erosion during the experiments. This technique allowed us to quantify the spatial distribution of eroded soil and to understand better if sediment transport is 1D or rather 2D over the flumes. The one-dimensional Hairsine-Rose (H-R) erosion model was used to fit the integrated data and to provide estimates of the parameters. The ability of the 1D H-R model to predict the measured sediment concentrations in the presence of stones in the soil matrix

  18. Predicting a graphene-like WB4 nanosheet with a double Dirac cone, an ultra-high Fermi velocity and significant gap opening by spin-orbit coupling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chunmei; Jiao, Yalong; Ma, Fengxian; Bottle, Steven; Zhao, Mingwen; Chen, Zhongfang; Du, Aijun

    2017-02-15

    The zero-band gap nature of graphene prevents it from performing as a semi-conductor in modern electronics. Although various graphene modification strategies have been developed to address this limitation, the very small band gap of these materials and the suppressed charge carrier mobility of the devices developed still significantly hinder graphene's applications. In this work, a two dimensional (2D) WB 4 monolayer, which exhibits a double Dirac cone, was conceived and assessed using density functional theory (DFT) methods, which would provide a sizable band gap while maintaining higher charge mobility with a Fermi velocity of 1.099 × 10 6 m s -1 . Strong spin-orbit-coupling can generate an observable band gap of up to 0.27 eV that primarily originates from the d-orbit of the heavy metal atom W; therefore a 2D WB 4 nanosheet would be operable at room temperature (T = 300 K) and would be a promising candidate to fabricate nanoelectronics in the upcoming post-silicon era. The phonon-spectrum and ab initio molecular dynamics calculations further demonstrate the dynamic and thermal stability of such nanosheets, thus, suggesting a potentially synthesizable Dirac material.

  19. Prognostic Significance of 5-Year PSA Value for Predicting Prostate Cancer Recurrence After Brachytherapy Alone and Combined With Hormonal Therapy and/or External Beam Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stock, Richard G.; Klein, Thomas J.; Cesaretti, Jamie A.; Stone, Nelson N.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To analyze the prognosis and outcomes of patients who remain free of biochemical failure during the first 5 years after treatment. Methods and Materials: Between 1991 and 2002, 742 patients with prostate cancer were treated with brachytherapy alone (n = 306), brachytherapy and hormonal therapy (n = 212), or combined implantation and external beam radiotherapy (with or without hormonal therapy; n = 224). These patients were free of biochemical failure (American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology [ASTRO] definition) during the first 5 post-treatment years and had a documented 5-year prostate-specific antigen (PSA) value. The median follow-up was 6.93 years. Results: The actuarial 10-year freedom from PSA failure rate was 97% using the ASTRO definition and 95% using the Phoenix definition. The median 5-year PSA level was 0.03 ng/mL (range, 0-3.6). The 5-year PSA value was ≤0.01 in 47.7%, >0.01-0.10 in 31.1%, >0.10-0.2 in 10.2%, >0.2-0.5 in 7.82%, and >0.5 in 3.10%. The 5-year PSA value had prognostic significance, with a PSA value of ≤0.2 ng/mL (n = 661) corresponding to a 10-year freedom from PSA failure rate of 99% with the ASTRO definition and 98% with the Phoenix definition vs. 86% (ASTRO definition) and 81% (Phoenix definition) for a PSA value ≥0.2 ng/mL (n = 81; p < .0001). The treatment regimen had no effect on biochemical failure. None of the 742 patients in this study developed metastatic disease or died of prostate cancer. Conclusion: The results of this study have shown that the prognosis for patients treated with brachytherapy and who remain biochemically free of disease for ≥5 years is excellent and none developed metastatic disease during the first 10 years after treatment. The 5-year PSA value is prognostic, and patients with a PSA value <0.2 ng/mL are unlikely to develop subsequent biochemical relapse.

  20. Preliminary plan for case-control crash risk study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-31

    The goal of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) is to reduce commercial vehicle-related fatalities and injuries. This is achieved through a thorough understanding of crash characteristics, precursors, and risk factors. This will h...

  1. Drug and alcohol crash risk : a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    This study used a case-control design to estimate the risk of crashes involving drivers using drugs, alcohol or both. Data was collected in Virginia Beach, Virginia, for 20 months. The study obtained biological measures on more than 3,000 crash...

  2. Drug and alcohol crash risk : traffic safety facts : research note.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    While the extent of use of alcohol by drivers and the risks posed by alcohol use have been well known for many decades, relatively little has been known about the use of other drugs by drivers and the associated risks. However, drug-impaired driving ...

  3. Distracted Driving and Associated Crash Risks : Research Project Capsule

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    Factors aff ecting the : cognitive tasks : associated with : driving are becoming : increasingly critical to : the overall roadway : safety performance. : Therefore, more research is needed in order to understand the complexity and : impact of distra...

  4. Taxonomy of Older Driver Behaviors and Crash Risk : Appendix C

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    This projects objectives were to identify risky behaviors, driving habits, and exposure patterns that have been shown to increase the likelihood of crash involvement among older drivers; and to classify these crash-contributing factors according t...

  5. Testing Significance Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim I. Krueger

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The practice of Significance Testing (ST remains widespread in psychological science despite continual criticism of its flaws and abuses. Using simulation experiments, we address four concerns about ST and for two of these we compare ST’s performance with prominent alternatives. We find the following: First, the 'p' values delivered by ST predict the posterior probability of the tested hypothesis well under many research conditions. Second, low 'p' values support inductive inferences because they are most likely to occur when the tested hypothesis is false. Third, 'p' values track likelihood ratios without raising the uncertainties of relative inference. Fourth, 'p' values predict the replicability of research findings better than confidence intervals do. Given these results, we conclude that 'p' values may be used judiciously as a heuristic tool for inductive inference. Yet, 'p' values cannot bear the full burden of inference. We encourage researchers to be flexible in their selection and use of statistical methods.

  6. Development of a Microsimulation Model to Predict Stroke and Long-Term Mortality in Adherent and Nonadherent Medically Managed and Surgically Treated Octogenarians with Asymptomatic Significant Carotid Artery Stenosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luebke, Thomas; Brunkwall, Jan

    2016-08-01

    The primary study objective was to develop a microsimulation model to predict preventable first-ever and recurrent strokes and mortality for a population of medically or surgically managed octogenarians with substantial (>60%) asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis and comparing an adherent with a real-world nonadherent best medical treatment (BMT) regimen subjected to sex. A Monte Carlo microsimulation model was constructed with a 14-year time horizon and with 10,000 patients. Probabilities and values for clinical outcomes were obtained from the current literature. The stratification of the microsimulation estimates by treatment strategy within the female group of octogenarians showed a statistically significant lower stroke rate during follow-up for carotid endarterectomy (CEA) compared with nonadherent BMT (P < 0.0001) as well as compared with adherent BMT (P < 0.0001). In male octogenarians, the CEA strategy was also associated with statistically significant lower stroke rates compared with adherent and nonadherent BMT (P < 0.0001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). For each treatment strategy, female octogenarians had a statistically significant longer overall long-term survival compared with male octogenarians (P < 0.0001, respectively). In terms of stratification by sex, in octogenarian men and women, long-term survival was significantly better for adherent BMT compared with nonadherent BMT, and CEA was associated with a significant better long-term survival compared with nonadherent BMT. In the present microsimulation, in real-world drug adherence, it was likely that a strategy of early endarterectomy was beneficial in octogenarians with significant asymptomatic carotid artery disease compared with BMT alone. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Prediction of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+ using HPV DNA testing after a diagnosis of atypical squamous cell of undetermined significance (ASC-US in Catalonia, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibáñez Raquel

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A protocol for cervical cancer screening among sexually active women 25 to 65 years of age was introduced in 2006 in Catalonia, Spain to increase coverage and to recommend a 3-year-interval between screening cytology. In addition, Human Papillomavirus (HPV was offered as a triage test for women with a diagnosis of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US. HPV testing was recommended within 3 months of ASC-US diagnosis. According to protocol, HPV negative women were referred to regular screening including a cytological exam every 3 years while HPV positive women were referred to colposcopy and closer follow-up. We evaluated the implementation of the protocol and the prediction of HPV testing as a triage tool for cervical intraepithelial lesions grade two or worse (CIN2+ in women with a cytological diagnosis of ASC-US. Methods During 2007-08 a total of 611 women from five reference laboratories in Catalonia with a novel diagnosis of ASC-US were referred for high risk HPV (hrHPV triage using high risk Hybrid Capture version 2. Using routine record linkage data, women were followed for 3 years to evaluate hrHPV testing efficacy for predicting CIN2+ cases. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the odds ratio for CIN2 +. Results Among the 611 women diagnosed with ASC-US, 493 (80.7% had at least one follow-up visit during the study period. hrHPV was detected in 48.3% of the women at study entry (mean age 35.2 years. hrHPV positivity decreased with increasing age from 72.6% among women younger than 25 years to 31.6% in women older than 54 years (p At the end of the 3 years follow-up period, 37 women with a diagnosis of CIN2+ (18 CIN2, 16 CIN3, 2 cancers, and 1 with high squamous intraepithelial lesions -HSIL were identified and all but one had a hrHPV positive test at study entry. Sensitivity to detect CIN2+ of hrHPV was 97.2% (95%confidence interval (CI = 85.5-99.9 and specificity was 68.3% (95%CI

  8. Prediction of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+) using HPV DNA testing after a diagnosis of atypical squamous cell of undetermined significance (ASC-US) in Catalonia, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibáñez, Raquel; Moreno-Crespi, Judit; Sardà, Montserrat; Autonell, Josefina; Fibla, Montserrat; Gutiérrez, Cristina; Lloveras, Belen; Alejo, María; Català, Isabel; Alameda, Francesc; Casas, Miquel; Bosch, F Xavier; de Sanjosé, Silvia

    2012-01-26

    A protocol for cervical cancer screening among sexually active women 25 to 65 years of age was introduced in 2006 in Catalonia, Spain to increase coverage and to recommend a 3-year-interval between screening cytology. In addition, Human Papillomavirus (HPV) was offered as a triage test for women with a diagnosis of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US). HPV testing was recommended within 3 months of ASC-US diagnosis. According to protocol, HPV negative women were referred to regular screening including a cytological exam every 3 years while HPV positive women were referred to colposcopy and closer follow-up. We evaluated the implementation of the protocol and the prediction of HPV testing as a triage tool for cervical intraepithelial lesions grade two or worse (CIN2+) in women with a cytological diagnosis of ASC-US. During 2007-08 a total of 611 women from five reference laboratories in Catalonia with a novel diagnosis of ASC-US were referred for high risk HPV (hrHPV) triage using high risk Hybrid Capture version 2. Using routine record linkage data, women were followed for 3 years to evaluate hrHPV testing efficacy for predicting CIN2+ cases. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the odds ratio for CIN2 +. Among the 611 women diagnosed with ASC-US, 493 (80.7%) had at least one follow-up visit during the study period. hrHPV was detected in 48.3% of the women at study entry (mean age 35.2 years). hrHPV positivity decreased with increasing age from 72.6% among women younger than 25 years to 31.6% in women older than 54 years (p < 0.01). At the end of the 3 years follow-up period, 37 women with a diagnosis of CIN2+ (18 CIN2, 16 CIN3, 2 cancers, and 1 with high squamous intraepithelial lesions--HSIL) were identified and all but one had a hrHPV positive test at study entry. Sensitivity to detect CIN2+ of hrHPV was 97.2% (95%confidence interval (CI) = 85.5-99.9) and specificity was 68.3% (95%CI = 63.1-73.2). The odds ratio for CIN2

  9. The effect of ethnicity on the performance of protein-creatinine ratio in the prediction of significant proteinuria in pregnancies at risk of or with established hypertension: an implementation audit and cost implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatti, Sadia; Cordina, Mark; Penna, Leonie; Sherwood, Roy; Dew, Tracy; Kametas, Nikos A

    2018-05-01

    The replacement of 24-h urine collection by protein-creatinine ratio (PCR) for the diagnosis of preeclampsia has been recently recommended. However, the literature is conflicting and there are concerns about the impact of demographic characteristics on the performance of PCR. This was an implementation audit of the introduction of PCR in a London Tertiary obstetric unit. The performance of PCR in the prediction of proteinuria ≥300 mg/day was assessed in 476 women with suspected preeclampsia who completed a 24-h urine collection and an untimed urine sample for PCR calculation. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the independent predictors of significant proteinuria. In a pregnant population, ethnicity and PCR are the main predictors of ≥300 mg proteinuria in a 24-h urine collection. A PCR cut-off of 30 mg/mmol would have incorrectly classified as non-proteinuric, 41.4% and 22.9% of black and non-black women, respectively. Sensitivity of 100% is achieved at cut-offs of 8.67 and 20.56 mg/mmol for black and non-black women, respectively. Applying these levels as a screening tool to inform the need to perform a 24-h urine collection in 1000 women, would lead to a financial saving of €2911 in non-black women and to an additional cost of €3269 in black women. Our data suggest that a move from screening for proteinuria with a 24-h urine collection to screening with urine PCR is not appropriate for black populations. However, the move may lead to cost-saving if used in the white population with a PCR cut-off of 20.5. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  10. Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging of thymoma: ability of the Apparent Diffusion Coefficient in predicting the World Health Organization (WHO) classification and the Masaoka-Koga staging system and its prognostic significance on disease-free survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Priola, Adriano Massimiliano; Priola, Sandro Massimo; Gned, Dario; Ducco, Lorena; Veltri, Andrea; Giraudo, Maria Teresa; Fornari, Alessandro; Ferrero, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate the usefulness of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance for distinguishing thymomas according to WHO and Masaoka-Koga classifications and in predicting disease-free survival (DFS) by using the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC). Forty-one patients were grouped based on WHO (low-risk vs. high-risk) and Masaoka-Koga (early vs. advanced) classifications. For prognosis, seven patients with recurrence at follow-up were grouped separately from healthy subjects. Differences on ADC levels between groups were tested using Student-t testing. Logistic regression models and areas under the ROC curve (AUROC) were estimated. Mean ADC values were different between groups of WHO (low-risk = 1.58 ± 0.20 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; high-risk = 1.21 ± 0.23 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; p < 0.0001) and Masaoka-Koga (early = 1.43 ± 0.26 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; advanced = 1.31 ± 0.31 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; p = 0.016) classifications. Mean ADC of type-B3 (1.05 ± 0.17 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec) was lower than type-B2 (1.32 ± 0.20 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; p = 0.023). AUROC in discriminating groups was 0.864 for WHO classification (cut-point = 1.309 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; accuracy = 78.1 %) and 0.730 for Masaoka-Koga classification (cut-point = 1.243 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; accuracy = 73.2 %). Logistic regression models and two-way ANOVA were significant for WHO classification (odds ratio[OR] = 0.93, p = 0.007; p < 0.001), but not for Masaoka-Koga classification (OR = 0.98, p = 0.31; p = 0.38). ADC levels were significantly associated with DFS recurrence rate being higher for patients with ADC ≤ 1.299 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec (p = 0.001; AUROC, 0.834; accuracy = 78.0 %). ADC helps to differentiate high-risk from low-risk thymomas and discriminates the more aggressive type-B3. Primary tumour ADC is a prognostic indicator of recurrence. (orig.)

  11. Diagnostic value of thallium-201 myocardial perfusion IQ-SPECT without and with computed tomography-based attenuation correction to predict clinically significant and insignificant fractional flow reserve: A single-center prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Haruki; Takahashi, Teruyuki; Ohashi, Norihiko; Tanaka, Koichi; Okada, Takenori; Kihara, Yasuki

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study was to clarify the predictive value of fractional flow reserve (FFR) determined by myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) using thallium (Tl)-201 IQ-SPECT without and with computed tomography-based attenuation correction (CT-AC) for patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD).We assessed 212 angiographically identified diseased vessels using adenosine-stress Tl-201 MPI-IQ-SPECT/CT in 84 consecutive, prospectively identified patients with stable CAD. We compared the FFR in 136 of the 212 diseased vessels using visual semiquantitative interpretations of corresponding territories on MPI-IQ-SPECT images without and with CT-AC.FFR inversely correlated most accurately with regional summed difference scores (rSDS) in images without and with CT-AC (r = -0.584 and r = -0.568, respectively, both P system can predict FFR at an optimal cut-off of reserved.

  12. Detecting Novelty and Significance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Vera; Bradley, Margaret M.; Codispoti, Maurizio; Lang, Peter J.

    2013-01-01

    Studies of cognition often use an “oddball” paradigm to study effects of stimulus novelty and significance on information processing. However, an oddball tends to be perceptually more novel than the standard, repeated stimulus as well as more relevant to the ongoing task, making it difficult to disentangle effects due to perceptual novelty and stimulus significance. In the current study, effects of perceptual novelty and significance on ERPs were assessed in a passive viewing context by presenting repeated and novel pictures (natural scenes) that either signaled significant information regarding the current context or not. A fronto-central N2 component was primarily affected by perceptual novelty, whereas a centro-parietal P3 component was modulated by both stimulus significance and novelty. The data support an interpretation that the N2 reflects perceptual fluency and is attenuated when a current stimulus matches an active memory representation and that the amplitude of the P3 reflects stimulus meaning and significance. PMID:19400680

  13. Significant NRC Enforcement Actions

    Data.gov (United States)

    Nuclear Regulatory Commission — This dataset provides a list of Nuclear Regulartory Commission (NRC) issued significant enforcement actions. These actions, referred to as "escalated", are issued by...

  14. The time frame of Epstein-Barr virus latent membrane protein-1 gene to disappear in nasopharyngeal swabs after initiation of primary radiotherapy is an independently significant prognostic factor predicting local control for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, S.-Y.; Chang, K.-P.; Hsieh, M.-S.; Ueng, S.-H.; Hao, S.-P.; Tseng, C.-K.; Pai, P.-C.; Chang, F.-T.; Tsai, M.-H.; Tsang, N.-M.

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: The presence of Epstein-Barr virus latent membrane protein-1 (LMP-1) gene in nasopharyngeal swabs indicates the presence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) mucosal tumor cells. This study was undertaken to investigate whether the time taken for LMP-1 to disappear after initiation of primary radiotherapy (RT) was inversely associated with NPC local control. Methods and Materials: During July 1999 and October 2002, there were 127 nondisseminated NPC patients receiving serial examinations of nasopharyngeal swabbing with detection of LMP-1 during the RT course. The time for LMP-1 regression was defined as the number of days after initiation of RT for LMP-1 results to turn negative. The primary outcome was local control, which was represented by freedom from local recurrence. Results: The time for LMP-1 regression showed a statistically significant influence on NPC local control both univariately (p < 0.0001) and multivariately (p = 0.004). In multivariate analysis, the administration of chemotherapy conferred a significantly more favorable local control (p = 0.03). Advanced T status (≥ T2b), overall treatment time of external photon radiotherapy longer than 55 days, and older age showed trends toward being poor prognosticators. The time for LMP-1 regression was very heterogeneous. According to the quartiles of the time for LMP-1 regression, we defined the pattern of LMP-1 regression as late regression if it required 40 days or more. Kaplan-Meier plots indicated that the patients with late regression had a significantly worse local control than those with intermediate or early regression (p 0.0129). Conclusion: Among the potential prognostic factors examined in this study, the time for LMP-1 regression was the most independently significant factor that was inversely associated with NPC local control

  15. Significance of periacinar cleftings as supporting criteria in diagnosis of prostatic adenocarcinoma Gleason score-a 7 (3+4 and Gleason score-a 7 (4+3 and their relationship with parameters of predictive value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mijović Milica

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Diagnosis of different pathohystological diseases of prostate in the most cases is based on common benignant and malignant characteristics. The presence of periacinar cleftings (PC is an additional criterion favouring prostatic adenocarcinoma. According to the presence and extent of PC, analysed on high power field (400x, glands were classified into 3 groups: group 1-glands without PC or with PC affecting ≤50% of gland circumference; group 2-glands with PC affecting >50% gland circumference in 50% gland circumference in ≥50% examined glands. The aim of our study was to determine the importance of presence of PC in prostatic adenocarcinoma (ADCP of Gleason score 7(3+4 and 7(4+3 and establish the existence of differences in their appearance at ADCP with first and second dominant histological grade 3 and 4 in each different relationship based on correlation analysis of PC and parameters of the predictive value (preoperative value of serum prostate specific antigen, tumor volume, clinical stage and degree of focal neuroendocrine differentiation. The study included 33 ADCP of Gleason score 7, 26 (78.79% ADCP 7(3+4 and 7 (21.21% ADCP 7(4+3. In ADCP Gleason 7(3+4 periacinar cleftings are more common in tumors that are smaller, better differentiated (produce more PSA, which is diagnosed in less advanced clinical stages and showing a less degree of focal neuroendocrine differentiation. In ADCP Gleason 7(4+3 periacinar cleftings are more common in tumors which produce less value of serum PSA (poorly differentiated and in tumors that are diagnosed in advanced clinical stages. Periacinar cleftings are common findings in prostatic adenocarcinoma Gleason score 7(4+3 which are considerd as tumors with worse prognosis. Because of all we can rank PC among the important additional criteria for the diagnosis of adenocarcinoma of the prostate.

  16. The use of the acute Pd/Pa drop after intracoronary nitroglycerin infusion to rule out significant FFR: CANICA (Can intracoronary nitroglycerin predict fractional flow reserve without adenosine?) multicenter study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Reyes, R; de la Torre Hernandez, J M; Franco-Pelaez, J; Lopez-Palop, R; Telleria Arrieta, M; Amat Santos, I J; Carrillo Saez, P; Sanchez-Recalde, A; Sanmartin Pena, J C; Garcia Camarero, T; Brugaletta, S; Gimeno de Carlos, F; Pinero, A; Sorto Sanchez, D C; Frutos, A; Lasa Larraya, G; Navarro, F; Farre, J

    2016-02-01

    Functional assessment of coronary artery stenosis is performed by measuring the fractional flow reserve (FFR) under hyperemic conditions (Adenosine). However, the use of adenosine portends limitations. We sought to investigate the relationship and correlation between FFR and the Pd/Pa value obtained just after the intracoronary infusion (acute drop) of nitroglycerin (Pd/Pa-NTG) and if this parameter enhances diagnostic accuracy for FFR prediction compared to the resting baseline Pd/Pa. We conducted a multicenter study including prospectively patients presenting intermediate coronary artery stenosis (30-70%) evaluated with pressure wire. Resting baseline Pd/Pa, Pd/Pa-NTG and FFR were measured. 283 patients (335 lesions) were included. Resting baseline Pd/Pa value was 0.72 to 1.0 (0.93 ± 0.04), Pd/Pa-NTG was 0.60 to 1.0 (0.87 ± 0.07) and FFR 0.55 to 1.0 (0.83 ± 0.08). The ROC curves for resting baseline Pd/Pa and for Pd/Pa-NTG, using a FFR ≤ 0.80 showed an AUC of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.84-0.92, P values of resting baseline Pd/Pa and Pd/Pa-NTG for an FFR > 0.80, were >0.96 and >0.88, respectively. These values were present in a 29.8% (n = 100) and a 47.1% (n = 158), of the total lesions. Scatter plots showed a better correlation and agreement points with Pd/Pa-NTG than resting baseline Pd/Pa. The cutoff value of Pd/Pa-NTG > 0.88 showed an excellent NPV (96.2% for FFR > 0.8 and 100% for FFR > 0.75) and sensitivity (95% for FFR > 0.8 and 100% for FFR > 0.75) which were consistently high across all the subgroups analysis. The cutoff value of acute Pd/Pa-NTG > 0.88 has a high NPV meaning adenosine-FFR can be avoided in almost half of lesions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Significant Tsunami Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, P. K.; Furtney, M.; McLean, S. J.; Sweeney, A. D.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunamis have inflicted death and destruction on the coastlines of the world throughout history. The occurrence of tsunamis and the resulting effects have been collected and studied as far back as the second millennium B.C. The knowledge gained from cataloging and examining these events has led to significant changes in our understanding of tsunamis, tsunami sources, and methods to mitigate the effects of tsunamis. The most significant, not surprisingly, are often the most devastating, such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami. The goal of this poster is to give a brief overview of the occurrence of tsunamis and then focus specifically on several significant tsunamis. There are various criteria to determine the most significant tsunamis: the number of deaths, amount of damage, maximum runup height, had a major impact on tsunami science or policy, etc. As a result, descriptions will include some of the most costly (2011 Tohoku, Japan), the most deadly (2004 Sumatra, 1883 Krakatau), and the highest runup ever observed (1958 Lituya Bay, Alaska). The discovery of the Cascadia subduction zone as the source of the 1700 Japanese "Orphan" tsunami and a future tsunami threat to the U.S. northwest coast, contributed to the decision to form the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 marked the beginning of the modern era of seismology. Knowledge gained from the 1964 Alaska earthquake and tsunami helped confirm the theory of plate tectonics. The 1946 Alaska, 1952 Kuril Islands, 1960 Chile, 1964 Alaska, and the 2004 Banda Aceh, tsunamis all resulted in warning centers or systems being established.The data descriptions on this poster were extracted from NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) global historical tsunami database. Additional information about these tsunamis, as well as water level data can be found by accessing the NGDC website www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/

  18. A Bayesian network based framework for real-time crash prediction on the basic freeway segments of urban expressways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Moinul; Muromachi, Yasunori

    2012-03-01

    The concept of measuring the crash risk for a very short time window in near future is gaining more practicality due to the recent advancements in the fields of information systems and traffic sensor technology. Although some real-time crash prediction models have already been proposed, they are still primitive in nature and require substantial improvements to be implemented in real-life. This manuscript investigates the major shortcomings of the existing models and offers solutions to overcome them with an improved framework and modeling method. It employs random multinomial logit model to identify the most important predictors as well as the most suitable detector locations to acquire data to build such a model. Afterwards, it applies Bayesian belief net (BBN) to build the real-time crash prediction model. The model has been constructed using high resolution detector data collected from Shibuya 3 and Shinjuku 4 expressways under the jurisdiction of Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway Company Limited, Japan. It has been specifically built for the basic freeway segments and it predicts the chance of formation of a hazardous traffic condition within the next 4-9 min for a particular 250 meter long road section. The performance evaluation results reflect that at an average threshold value the model is able to successful classify 66% of the future crashes with a false alarm rate less than 20%. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Candidate SNP markers of aggressiveness-related complications and comorbidities of genetic diseases are predicted by a significant change in the affinity of TATA-binding protein for human gene promoters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadaeva, Irina V; Ponomarenko, Mikhail P; Rasskazov, Dmitry A; Sharypova, Ekaterina B; Kashina, Elena V; Matveeva, Marina Yu; Arshinova, Tatjana V; Ponomarenko, Petr M; Arkova, Olga V; Bondar, Natalia P; Savinkova, Ludmila K; Kolchanov, Nikolay A

    2016-12-28

    Aggressiveness in humans is a hereditary behavioral trait that mobilizes all systems of the body-first of all, the nervous and endocrine systems, and then the respiratory, vascular, muscular, and others-e.g., for the defense of oneself, children, family, shelter, territory, and other possessions as well as personal interests. The level of aggressiveness of a person determines many other characteristics of quality of life and lifespan, acting as a stress factor. Aggressive behavior depends on many parameters such as age, gender, diseases and treatment, diet, and environmental conditions. Among them, genetic factors are believed to be the main parameters that are well-studied at the factual level, but in actuality, genome-wide studies of aggressive behavior appeared relatively recently. One of the biggest projects of the modern science-1000 Genomes-involves identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), i.e., differences of individual genomes from the reference genome. SNPs can be associated with hereditary diseases, their complications, comorbidities, and responses to stress or a drug. Clinical comparisons between cohorts of patients and healthy volunteers (as a control) allow for identifying SNPs whose allele frequencies significantly separate them from one another as markers of the above conditions. Computer-based preliminary analysis of millions of SNPs detected by the 1000 Genomes project can accelerate clinical search for SNP markers due to preliminary whole-genome search for the most meaningful candidate SNP markers and discarding of neutral and poorly substantiated SNPs. Here, we combine two computer-based search methods for SNPs (that alter gene expression) {i} Web service SNP_TATA_Comparator (DNA sequence analysis) and {ii} PubMed-based manual search for articles on aggressiveness using heuristic keywords. Near the known binding sites for TATA-binding protein (TBP) in human gene promoters, we found aggressiveness-related candidate SNP markers

  20. Safety significance evaluation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lew, B.S.; Yee, D.; Brewer, W.K.; Quattro, P.J.; Kirby, K.D.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG and E), in cooperation with ABZ, Incorporated and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), investigated the use of artificial intelligence-based programming techniques to assist utility personnel in regulatory compliance problems. The result of this investigation is that artificial intelligence-based programming techniques can successfully be applied to this problem. To demonstrate this, a general methodology was developed and several prototype systems based on this methodology were developed. The prototypes address U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) event reportability requirements, technical specification compliance based on plant equipment status, and quality assurance assistance. This collection of prototype modules is named the safety significance evaluation system

  1. Gas revenue increasingly significant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Megill, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper briefly describes the wellhead prices of natural gas compared to crude oil over the past 70 years. Although natural gas prices have never reached price parity with crude oil, the relative value of a gas BTU has been increasing. It is one of the reasons that the total amount of money coming from natural gas wells is becoming more significant. From 1920 to 1955 the revenue at the wellhead for natural gas was only about 10% of the money received by producers. Most of the money needed for exploration, development, and production came from crude oil. At present, however, over 40% of the money from the upstream portion of the petroleum industry is from natural gas. As a result, in a few short years natural gas may become 50% of the money revenues generated from wellhead production facilities

  2. Tumor significant dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Supe, S.J.; Nagalaxmi, K.V.; Meenakshi, L.

    1983-01-01

    In the practice of radiotherapy, various concepts like NSD, CRE, TDF, and BIR are being used to evaluate the biological effectiveness of the treatment schedules on the normal tissues. This has been accepted as the tolerance of the normal tissue is the limiting factor in the treatment of cancers. At present when various schedules are tried, attention is therefore paid to the biological damage of the normal tissues only and it is expected that the damage to the cancerous tissues would be extensive enough to control the cancer. Attempt is made in the present work to evaluate the concent of tumor significant dose (TSD) which will represent the damage to the cancerous tissue. Strandquist in the analysis of a large number of cases of squamous cell carcinoma found that for the 5 fraction/week treatment, the total dose required to bring about the same damage for the cancerous tissue is proportional to T/sup -0.22/, where T is the overall time over which the dose is delivered. Using this finding the TSD was defined as DxN/sup -p/xT/sup -q/, where D is the total dose, N the number of fractions, T the overall time p and q are the exponents to be suitably chosen. The values of p and q are adjusted such that p+q< or =0.24, and p varies from 0.0 to 0.24 and q varies from 0.0 to 0.22. Cases of cancer of cervix uteri treated between 1978 and 1980 in the V. N. Cancer Centre, Kuppuswamy Naidu Memorial Hospital, Coimbatore, India were analyzed on the basis of these formulations. These data, coupled with the clinical experience, were used for choice of a formula for the TSD. Further, the dose schedules used in the British Institute of Radiology fraction- ation studies were also used to propose that the tumor significant dose is represented by DxN/sup -0.18/xT/sup -0.06/

  3. Uranium chemistry: significant advances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazzanti, M.

    2011-01-01

    The author reviews recent progress in uranium chemistry achieved in CEA laboratories. Like its neighbors in the Mendeleev chart uranium undergoes hydrolysis, oxidation and disproportionation reactions which make the chemistry of these species in water highly complex. The study of the chemistry of uranium in an anhydrous medium has led to correlate the structural and electronic differences observed in the interaction of uranium(III) and the lanthanides(III) with nitrogen or sulfur molecules and the effectiveness of these molecules in An(III)/Ln(III) separation via liquid-liquid extraction. Recent work on the redox reactivity of trivalent uranium U(III) in an organic medium with molecules such as water or an azide ion (N 3 - ) in stoichiometric quantities, led to extremely interesting uranium aggregates particular those involved in actinide migration in the environment or in aggregation problems in the fuel processing cycle. Another significant advance was the discovery of a compound containing the uranyl ion with a degree of oxidation (V) UO 2 + , obtained by oxidation of uranium(III). Recently chemists have succeeded in blocking the disproportionation reaction of uranyl(V) and in stabilizing polymetallic complexes of uranyl(V), opening the way to to a systematic study of the reactivity and the electronic and magnetic properties of uranyl(V) compounds. (A.C.)

  4. Meaning and significance of

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ph D Student Roman Mihaela

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The concept of "public accountability" is a challenge for political science as a new concept in this area in full debate and developement ,both in theory and practice. This paper is a theoretical approach of displaying some definitions, relevant meanings and significance odf the concept in political science. The importance of this concept is that although originally it was used as a tool to improve effectiveness and eficiency of public governance, it has gradually become a purpose it itself. "Accountability" has become an image of good governance first in the United States of America then in the European Union.Nevertheless,the concept is vaguely defined and provides ambiguous images of good governance.This paper begins with the presentation of some general meanings of the concept as they emerge from specialized dictionaries and ancyclopaedies and continues with the meanings developed in political science. The concept of "public accontability" is rooted in economics and management literature,becoming increasingly relevant in today's political science both in theory and discourse as well as in practice in formulating and evaluating public policies. A first conclusin that emerges from, the analysis of the evolution of this term is that it requires a conceptual clarification in political science. A clear definition will then enable an appropriate model of proving the system of public accountability in formulating and assessing public policies, in order to implement a system of assessment and monitoring thereof.

  5. Significant Radionuclides Determination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jo A. Ziegler

    2001-07-31

    The purpose of this calculation is to identify radionuclides that are significant to offsite doses from potential preclosure events for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste expected to be received at the potential Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR). In this calculation, high-level radioactive waste is included in references to DOE SNF. A previous document, ''DOE SNF DBE Offsite Dose Calculations'' (CRWMS M&O 1999b), calculated the source terms and offsite doses for Department of Energy (DOE) and Naval SNF for use in design basis event analyses. This calculation reproduces only DOE SNF work (i.e., no naval SNF work is included in this calculation) created in ''DOE SNF DBE Offsite Dose Calculations'' and expands the calculation to include DOE SNF expected to produce a high dose consequence (even though the quantity of the SNF is expected to be small) and SNF owned by commercial nuclear power producers. The calculation does not address any specific off-normal/DBE event scenarios for receiving, handling, or packaging of SNF. The results of this calculation are developed for comparative analysis to establish the important radionuclides and do not represent the final source terms to be used for license application. This calculation will be used as input to preclosure safety analyses and is performed in accordance with procedure AP-3.12Q, ''Calculations'', and is subject to the requirements of DOE/RW-0333P, ''Quality Assurance Requirements and Description'' (DOE 2000) as determined by the activity evaluation contained in ''Technical Work Plan for: Preclosure Safety Analysis, TWP-MGR-SE-000010'' (CRWMS M&O 2000b) in accordance with procedure AP-2.21Q, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities''.

  6. The energetic significance of cooking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmody, Rachel N; Wrangham, Richard W

    2009-10-01

    While cooking has long been argued to improve the diet, the nature of the improvement has not been well defined. As a result, the evolutionary significance of cooking has variously been proposed as being substantial or relatively trivial. In this paper, we evaluate the hypothesis that an important and consistent effect of cooking food is a rise in its net energy value. The pathways by which cooking influences net energy value differ for starch, protein, and lipid, and we therefore consider plant and animal foods separately. Evidence of compromised physiological performance among individuals on raw diets supports the hypothesis that cooked diets tend to provide energy. Mechanisms contributing to energy being gained from cooking include increased digestibility of starch and protein, reduced costs of digestion for cooked versus raw meat, and reduced energetic costs of detoxification and defence against pathogens. If cooking consistently improves the energetic value of foods through such mechanisms, its evolutionary impact depends partly on the relative energetic benefits of non-thermal processing methods used prior to cooking. We suggest that if non-thermal processing methods such as pounding were used by Lower Palaeolithic Homo, they likely provided an important increase in energy gain over unprocessed raw diets. However, cooking has critical effects not easily achievable by non-thermal processing, including the relatively complete gelatinisation of starch, efficient denaturing of proteins, and killing of food borne pathogens. This means that however sophisticated the non-thermal processing methods were, cooking would have conferred incremental energetic benefits. While much remains to be discovered, we conclude that the adoption of cooking would have led to an important rise in energy availability. For this reason, we predict that cooking had substantial evolutionary significance.

  7. Detection of significant protein coevolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, David; Juan, David; Valencia, Alfonso; Pazos, Florencio

    2015-07-01

    The evolution of proteins cannot be fully understood without taking into account the coevolutionary linkages entangling them. From a practical point of view, coevolution between protein families has been used as a way of detecting protein interactions and functional relationships from genomic information. The most common approach to inferring protein coevolution involves the quantification of phylogenetic tree similarity using a family of methodologies termed mirrortree. In spite of their success, a fundamental problem of these approaches is the lack of an adequate statistical framework to assess the significance of a given coevolutionary score (tree similarity). As a consequence, a number of ad hoc filters and arbitrary thresholds are required in an attempt to obtain a final set of confident coevolutionary signals. In this work, we developed a method for associating confidence estimators (P values) to the tree-similarity scores, using a null model specifically designed for the tree comparison problem. We show how this approach largely improves the quality and coverage (number of pairs that can be evaluated) of the detected coevolution in all the stages of the mirrortree workflow, independently of the starting genomic information. This not only leads to a better understanding of protein coevolution and its biological implications, but also to obtain a highly reliable and comprehensive network of predicted interactions, as well as information on the substructure of macromolecular complexes using only genomic information. The software and datasets used in this work are freely available at: http://csbg.cnb.csic.es/pMT/. pazos@cnb.csic.es Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Signal treatments to reduce heavy vehicle crash-risk at metropolitan highway intersections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archer, Jeffery; Young, William

    2009-05-01

    Heavy vehicle red-light running at intersections is a common safety problem that has severe consequences. This paper investigates alternative signal treatments that address this issue. A micro-simulation analysis approach was adopted as a precursor to a field trial. The simulation model emulated traffic conditions at a known problem intersection and provided a baseline measure to compare the effects of: an extension of amber time; an extension of green for heavy vehicles detected in the dilemma zone at the onset of amber; an extension of the all-red safety-clearance time based on the detection of vehicles considered likely to run the red light at two detector locations during amber; an extension of the all-red safety-clearance time based on the detection of potential red-light runners during amber or red; and a combination of the second and fourth alternatives. Results suggested safety improvements for all treatments. An extension of amber provided the best safety effect but is known to be prone to behavioural adaptation effects and wastes traffic movement time unnecessarily. A green extension for heavy vehicles detected in the dilemma zone and an all-red extension for potential red-light runners were deemed to provide a sustainable safety improvement and operational efficiency.

  9. Relationship between areas of cognitive functioning on the Mini-Mental State Examination and crash risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huisingh, Carrie; Wadley, Virginia G; McGwin, Gerald; Owsley, Cynthia

    2018-03-01

    Previous studies have suggested that the pattern of cognitive impairment in crash involved older drivers is different from non-crash involved older drivers. This study assessed the relationship between seven areas of cognitive functioning (orientation to time, orientation to place, registration, attention and calculation, recall, language, and visual construction) on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) collected at baseline and rates of future crash involvement in a prospective population-based sample of older drivers. Motor vehicle collision involvement was obtained from the Alabama Department of Public Safety. Poisson regression was used to calculate crude and adjusted rate ratios (RR). Older drivers having difficulties in place orientation were more than 6 times (95% CI 1.90-19.86) more likely to be involved in a future crash (adjusted RR = 6.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.90-19.86) and at-fault crash (adjusted RR=6.39, 95% CI 1.51-27.10). Impairment in the other cognitive areas was not associated with higher rates of crash or at-fault crash involvement. The findings were validated in an independent sample of high-risk older drivers and a similar pattern of results was observed. Spatial orientation impairment can help identify older drivers who are more likely to crash in the future.

  10. Taxonomy of Older Driver Behaviors and Crash Risk : with Appendices A and B

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    This projects objectives were to identify risky behaviors, driving habits, and exposure patterns that have been shown to increase the likelihood of crash involvement among older drivers; and to classify these crash-contributing factors according t...

  11. Schedule II opioids and stimulants & CMV crash risk and driver performance : evidence report and systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-08

    Driving a large commercial truck is dangerous work. Truck drivers have a fatal work injury : rate of 22.1 per 100,000 workers, the eighth highest in the nation.1 : According to the Federal : Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), large trucks w...

  12. WALS Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magnus, J.R.; Wang, W.; Zhang, Xinyu

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Prediction under model uncertainty is an important and difficult issue. Traditional prediction methods (such as pretesting) are based on model selection followed by prediction in the selected model, but the reported prediction and the reported prediction variance ignore the uncertainty

  13. Applied predictive control

    CERN Document Server

    Sunan, Huang; Heng, Lee Tong

    2002-01-01

    The presence of considerable time delays in the dynamics of many industrial processes, leading to difficult problems in the associated closed-loop control systems, is a well-recognized phenomenon. The performance achievable in conventional feedback control systems can be significantly degraded if an industrial process has a relatively large time delay compared with the dominant time constant. Under these circumstances, advanced predictive control is necessary to improve the performance of the control system significantly. The book is a focused treatment of the subject matter, including the fundamentals and some state-of-the-art developments in the field of predictive control. Three main schemes for advanced predictive control are addressed in this book: • Smith Predictive Control; • Generalised Predictive Control; • a form of predictive control based on Finite Spectrum Assignment. A substantial part of the book addresses application issues in predictive control, providing several interesting case studie...

  14. Climate prediction and predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Climate prediction is generally accepted to be one of the grand challenges of the Geophysical Sciences. What is less widely acknowledged is that fundamental issues have yet to be resolved concerning the nature of the challenge, even after decades of research in this area. How do we verify or falsify a probabilistic forecast of a singular event such as anthropogenic warming over the 21st century? How do we determine the information content of a climate forecast? What does it mean for a modelling system to be "good enough" to forecast a particular variable? How will we know when models and forecasting systems are "good enough" to provide detailed forecasts of weather at specific locations or, for example, the risks associated with global geo-engineering schemes. This talk will provide an overview of these questions in the light of recent developments in multi-decade climate forecasting, drawing on concepts from information theory, machine learning and statistics. I will draw extensively but not exclusively from the experience of the climateprediction.net project, running multiple versions of climate models on personal computers.

  15. Historical Significant Volcanic Eruption Locations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — A significant eruption is classified as one that meets at least one of the following criteriacaused fatalities, caused moderate damage (approximately $1 million or...

  16. Significance evaluation in factor graphs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Tobias; Hobolth, Asger; Jensen, Jens Ledet

    2017-01-01

    in genomics and the multiple-testing issues accompanying them, accurate significance evaluation is of great importance. We here address the problem of evaluating statistical significance of observations from factor graph models. Results Two novel numerical approximations for evaluation of statistical...... significance are presented. First a method using importance sampling. Second a saddlepoint approximation based method. We develop algorithms to efficiently compute the approximations and compare them to naive sampling and the normal approximation. The individual merits of the methods are analysed both from....... Conclusions The applicability of saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling is demonstrated on known models in the factor graph framework. Using the two methods we can substantially improve computational cost without compromising accuracy. This contribution allows analyses of large datasets...

  17. Significant Lactic Acidosis from Albuterol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Diercks

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Lactic acidosis is a clinical entity that demands rapid assessment and treatment to prevent significant morbidity and mortality. With increased lactate use across many clinical scenarios, lactate values themselves cannot be interpreted apart from their appropriate clinical picture. The significance of Type B lactic acidosis is likely understated in the emergency department (ED. Given the mortality that sepsis confers, a serum lactate is an important screening study. That said, it is with extreme caution that we should interpret and react to the resultant elevated value. We report a patient with a significant lactic acidosis. Though he had a high lactate value, he did not require aggressive resuscitation. A different classification scheme for lactic acidosis that focuses on the bifurcation of the “dangerous” and “not dangerous” causes of lactic acidosis may be of benefit. In addition, this case is demonstrative of the potential overuse of lactates in the ED.

  18. Predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

    2013-11-22

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

  19. The historical significance of oak

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. V. Thirgood

    1971-01-01

    A brief history of the importance of oak in Europe, contrasting the methods used in France and Britain to propagate the species and manage the forests for continued productivity. The significance of oak as a strategic resource during the sailing-ship era is stressed, and mention is made of the early development of oak management in North America. The international...

  20. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-03-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (October - December 1993) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  1. Synthetic definition of biological significance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buffington, J.D.

    1975-01-01

    The central theme of the workshop is recounted and the views of the authors are summarized. Areas of broad agreement or disagreement, unifying principles, and research needs are identified. Authors' views are consolidated into concepts that have practical utility for the scientist making impact assessments. The need for decision-makers and managers to be cognizant of the recommendations made herein is discussed. Finally, bringing together the diverse views of the workshop participants, a conceptual definition of biological significance is synthesized

  2. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-11-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (July - September 1992) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  3. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (April--June 1993) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  4. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-05-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (January--March 1990) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. Also included are a number of enforcement actions that had been previously resolved but not published in this NUREG. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  5. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-05-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (January--March 1991) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  6. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-02-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (October--December 1990) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  7. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-03-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (October--December 1989) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  8. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-11-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (July--September 1990) and includes copies of letters, notices, and orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  9. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-08-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (April--June 1992) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  10. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-09-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (April--June 1990) and includes copies of letters, notices, and orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  11. Clinical significance of neonatal menstruation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosens, Ivo; Benagiano, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Past studies have clearly shown the existence of a spectrum of endometrial progesterone responses in neonatal endometrium, varying from proliferation to full decidualization with menstrual-like shedding. The bleedings represent, similar to what occurs in adult menstruation, a progesterone withdrawal bleeding. Today, the bleeding is completely neglected and considered an uneventful episode of no clinical significance. Yet clinical studies have linked the risk of bleeding to a series of events indicating fetal distress. The potential link between the progesterone response and major adolescent disorders requires to be investigated by prospective studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-06-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (January--March 1993) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  13. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-05-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (January--March 1992) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  14. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-12-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (July--September 1993) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  15. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (October--December 1992) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  16. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-07-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (April-June 1991) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  17. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-11-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (July--September 1991) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  18. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (October--December 1991) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  19. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-06-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (January--March 1989) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. Also included are a number of enforcement actions that had been previously resolved but not published in this NUREG. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  20. Enforcement actions: Significant actions resolved

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-12-01

    This compilation summarizes significant enforcement actions that have been resolved during one quarterly period (July--September 1989) and includes copies of letters, Notices, and Orders sent by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to licensees with respect to these enforcement actions. It is anticipated that the information in this publication will be widely disseminated to managers and employees engaged in activities licensed by the NRC, so that actions can be taken to improve safety by avoiding future violations similar to those described in this publication

  1. Comparing Spatial Predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Hering, Amanda S.; Genton, Marc G.

    2011-01-01

    Under a general loss function, we develop a hypothesis test to determine whether a significant difference in the spatial predictions produced by two competing models exists on average across the entire spatial domain of interest. The null hypothesis

  2. Moral significance of phenomenal consciousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Neil; Savulescu, Julian

    2009-01-01

    Recent work in neuroimaging suggests that some patients diagnosed as being in the persistent vegetative state are actually conscious. In this paper, we critically examine this new evidence. We argue that though it remains open to alternative interpretations, it strongly suggests the presence of consciousness in some patients. However, we argue that its ethical significance is less than many people seem to think. There are several different kinds of consciousness, and though all kinds of consciousness have some ethical significance, different kinds underwrite different kinds of moral value. Demonstrating that patients have phenomenal consciousness--conscious states with some kind of qualitative feel to them--shows that they are moral patients, whose welfare must be taken into consideration. But only if they are subjects of a sophisticated kind of access consciousness--where access consciousness entails global availability of information to cognitive systems--are they persons, in the technical sense of the word employed by philosophers. In this sense, being a person is having the full moral status of ordinary human beings. We call for further research which might settle whether patients who manifest signs of consciousness possess the sophisticated kind of access consciousness required for personhood.

  3. Clinical significance of the fabella

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodevski, A.; Lazarova-Tosovska, D.; Zhivadinovik, J.; Lazareska, M.

    2012-01-01

    Full text: Introduction: There is variable number of sesamoid bones in the human body; one of them is fabella, located in the tendon of the gastrocnemius muscle. Aim of this study was to investigate the frequency of occurrence of fabella in the Macedonian population and to discuss about clinical importance of this bone. Materials and methods: We retrospectively examined radiographs of 53 patients who had knee exams undertaken for a variety of clinical reasons, performed as a part of their medical treatment. Over a time span of six months, 53 patients (38 males and 15 females, age range 19-60 years, mean age of 36.7±12.3 years) were examined. Results: In seven (13.2%) patients of 53 analyzed reports, fabella was found in the lateral tendon of gastrocnemius muscle. We did not find a significant gender or side difference in the appearance of fabella. Conclusion: Although anatomic studies emphasized a lack of significance of the fabella, this bone has been associated with a spectrum of pathology affecting the knee as fabellar syndrome, perineal nerve injury and fracture. We should think of this sesamoid bone while performing diagnostic and surgical procedures

  4. The significance of small streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohl, Ellen

    2017-09-01

    Headwaters, defined here as first- and secondorder streams, make up 70%‒80% of the total channel length of river networks. These small streams exert a critical influence on downstream portions of the river network by: retaining or transmitting sediment and nutrients; providing habitat and refuge for diverse aquatic and riparian organisms; creating migration corridors; and governing connectivity at the watershed-scale. The upstream-most extent of the channel network and the longitudinal continuity and lateral extent of headwaters can be difficult to delineate, however, and people are less likely to recognize the importance of headwaters relative to other portions of a river network. Consequently, headwaters commonly lack the legal protections accorded to other portions of a river network and are more likely to be significantly altered or completely obliterated by land use.

  5. No significant fuel failures (NSFF)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domaratzki, Z.

    1979-01-01

    It has long been recognized that no emergency core cooling system (ECCS) could be absolutely guaranteed to prevent fuel failures. In 1976 the Atomic Energy Control Board decided that the objective for an ECCS should be to prevent fuel failures, but if the objective could not be met it should be shown that the consequences are acceptable for dual failures comprising any LOCA combined with an assumed impairment of containment. Out of the review of the Bruce A plant came the definition of 'no significant fuel failures': for any postulated LOCA combined with any one mode of containment impairment the resultant dose to a person at the edge of the exclusion zone is less than the reference dose limits for dual failures

  6. Ritual Significance in Mycenaean Hairstyles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsu, Florence Sheng-chieh

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Although the frescoes excavated from Bronze Age sites on the Greek mainland provide evidence for female figures in the Mycenaean society, the hairstyles of these figures have not been studied in detail. As in many other ancient cultures, hairstyles were not only an exhibition of beauty and fashion, but they also represented certain age groups or a person’s social status. The Mycenaeans inherited many of their hairstyles from their Minoan predecessors, although differences existed as well. It is also possible there may have been a shift in meaning for seemingly similar looking hairstyles from the Minoan to the Mycenaean periods. Female figures, which compose most of the Mycenaean figures in frescoes known to date, are fine examples for discussing the artistic representation and potential significance of Mycenaean hairstyles. By comparing with Minoan hairstyles, discussions of Mycenaean examples lead to conclusions in the relationship between hairstyles and ritual activities in the Mycenaean society.

  7. Significant biases affecting abundance determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesson, Roger

    2015-08-01

    I have developed two highly efficient codes to automate analyses of emission line nebulae. The tools place particular emphasis on the propagation of uncertainties. The first tool, ALFA, uses a genetic algorithm to rapidly optimise the parameters of gaussian fits to line profiles. It can fit emission line spectra of arbitrary resolution, wavelength range and depth, with no user input at all. It is well suited to highly multiplexed spectroscopy such as that now being carried out with instruments such as MUSE at the VLT. The second tool, NEAT, carries out a full analysis of emission line fluxes, robustly propagating uncertainties using a Monte Carlo technique.Using these tools, I have found that considerable biases can be introduced into abundance determinations if the uncertainty distribution of emission lines is not well characterised. For weak lines, normally distributed uncertainties are generally assumed, though it is incorrect to do so, and significant biases can result. I discuss observational evidence of these biases. The two new codes contain routines to correctly characterise the probability distributions, giving more reliable results in analyses of emission line nebulae.

  8. Astrobiological significance of chemolithoautotrophic acidophiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pikuta, Elena V.; Hoover, Richard B.

    2004-02-01

    For more than a century (since Winogradsky discovered lithautotrophic bacteria) there has been a dilemma in microbiology about life that first inhabited the Earth. Which types of life forms first appeared in the primordial oceans during the earliest geological period on Earth as the primary ancestors of modern biological diversity? How did a metabolism of ancestors evolve: from lithoautotrophic to lithoheterotrophic and organoheterotrophic or from organoheterotrophic to organautotrophic and lithomixotrophic types? At the present time, it is known that chemolithoheterotrophic and chemolithoautotrophic metabolizing bacteria are wide spread in different ecosystems. On Earth the acidic ecosystems are associated with geysers, volcanic fumaroles, hot springs, deep sea hydrothermal vents, caves, acid mine drainage and other technogenic ecosystems. Bioleaching played a significant roel on a global geological scale during the Earth's formation. This important feature of bacteria has been successfully applied in industry. The lithoautotrophs include Bacteria and Archaea belonging to diverse genera containing thermophilic and mesophilic species. In this paper we discuss the lithotrophic microbial acidophiles and present some data with a description of new acidophilic iron- and sulfur-oxidizing bacterium isolated from the Chena Hot Springs in Alaska. We also consider the possible relevance of microbial acidophiles to Venus, Io, and acidic inclusions in glaciers and icy moons.

  9. Determining Semantically Related Significant Genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taha, Kamal

    2014-01-01

    GO relation embodies some aspects of existence dependency. If GO term xis existence-dependent on GO term y, the presence of y implies the presence of x. Therefore, the genes annotated with the function of the GO term y are usually functionally and semantically related to the genes annotated with the function of the GO term x. A large number of gene set enrichment analysis methods have been developed in recent years for analyzing gene sets enrichment. However, most of these methods overlook the structural dependencies between GO terms in GO graph by not considering the concept of existence dependency. We propose in this paper a biological search engine called RSGSearch that identifies enriched sets of genes annotated with different functions using the concept of existence dependency. We observe that GO term xcannot be existence-dependent on GO term y, if x- and y- have the same specificity (biological characteristics). After encoding into a numeric format the contributions of GO terms annotating target genes to the semantics of their lowest common ancestors (LCAs), RSGSearch uses microarray experiment to identify the most significant LCA that annotates the result genes. We evaluated RSGSearch experimentally and compared it with five gene set enrichment systems. Results showed marked improvement.

  10. Statistically significant relational data mining :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, Jonathan W.; Leung, Vitus Joseph; Phillips, Cynthia Ann; Pinar, Ali; Robinson, David Gerald; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Bhowmick, Sanjukta; Casleton, Emily; Kaiser, Mark; Nordman, Daniel J.; Wilson, Alyson G.

    2014-02-01

    This report summarizes the work performed under the project (3z(BStatitically significant relational data mining.(3y (BThe goal of the project was to add more statistical rigor to the fairly ad hoc area of data mining on graphs. Our goal was to develop better algorithms and better ways to evaluate algorithm quality. We concetrated on algorithms for community detection, approximate pattern matching, and graph similarity measures. Approximate pattern matching involves finding an instance of a relatively small pattern, expressed with tolerance, in a large graph of data observed with uncertainty. This report gathers the abstracts and references for the eight refereed publications that have appeared as part of this work. We then archive three pieces of research that have not yet been published. The first is theoretical and experimental evidence that a popular statistical measure for comparison of community assignments favors over-resolved communities over approximations to a ground truth. The second are statistically motivated methods for measuring the quality of an approximate match of a small pattern in a large graph. The third is a new probabilistic random graph model. Statisticians favor these models for graph analysis. The new local structure graph model overcomes some of the issues with popular models such as exponential random graph models and latent variable models.

  11. Statistical Significance for Hierarchical Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimes, Patrick K.; Liu, Yufeng; Hayes, D. Neil; Marron, J. S.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Cluster analysis has proved to be an invaluable tool for the exploratory and unsupervised analysis of high dimensional datasets. Among methods for clustering, hierarchical approaches have enjoyed substantial popularity in genomics and other fields for their ability to simultaneously uncover multiple layers of clustering structure. A critical and challenging question in cluster analysis is whether the identified clusters represent important underlying structure or are artifacts of natural sampling variation. Few approaches have been proposed for addressing this problem in the context of hierarchical clustering, for which the problem is further complicated by the natural tree structure of the partition, and the multiplicity of tests required to parse the layers of nested clusters. In this paper, we propose a Monte Carlo based approach for testing statistical significance in hierarchical clustering which addresses these issues. The approach is implemented as a sequential testing procedure guaranteeing control of the family-wise error rate. Theoretical justification is provided for our approach, and its power to detect true clustering structure is illustrated through several simulation studies and applications to two cancer gene expression datasets. PMID:28099990

  12. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  13. Risk control and the minimum significant risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented

  14. Quantifying the Clinical Significance of Cannabis Withdrawal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allsop, David J.; Copeland, Jan; Norberg, Melissa M.; Fu, Shanlin; Molnar, Anna; Lewis, John; Budney, Alan J.

    2012-01-01

    Background and Aims Questions over the clinical significance of cannabis withdrawal have hindered its inclusion as a discrete cannabis induced psychiatric condition in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM IV). This study aims to quantify functional impairment to normal daily activities from cannabis withdrawal, and looks at the factors predicting functional impairment. In addition the study tests the influence of functional impairment from cannabis withdrawal on cannabis use during and after an abstinence attempt. Methods and Results A volunteer sample of 49 non-treatment seeking cannabis users who met DSM-IV criteria for dependence provided daily withdrawal-related functional impairment scores during a one-week baseline phase and two weeks of monitored abstinence from cannabis with a one month follow up. Functional impairment from withdrawal symptoms was strongly associated with symptom severity (p = 0.0001). Participants with more severe cannabis dependence before the abstinence attempt reported greater functional impairment from cannabis withdrawal (p = 0.03). Relapse to cannabis use during the abstinence period was associated with greater functional impairment from a subset of withdrawal symptoms in high dependence users. Higher levels of functional impairment during the abstinence attempt predicted higher levels of cannabis use at one month follow up (p = 0.001). Conclusions Cannabis withdrawal is clinically significant because it is associated with functional impairment to normal daily activities, as well as relapse to cannabis use. Sample size in the relapse group was small and the use of a non-treatment seeking population requires findings to be replicated in clinical samples. Tailoring treatments to target withdrawal symptoms contributing to functional impairment during a quit attempt may improve treatment outcomes. PMID:23049760

  15. Quantifying the clinical significance of cannabis withdrawal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J Allsop

    Full Text Available Questions over the clinical significance of cannabis withdrawal have hindered its inclusion as a discrete cannabis induced psychiatric condition in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM IV. This study aims to quantify functional impairment to normal daily activities from cannabis withdrawal, and looks at the factors predicting functional impairment. In addition the study tests the influence of functional impairment from cannabis withdrawal on cannabis use during and after an abstinence attempt.A volunteer sample of 49 non-treatment seeking cannabis users who met DSM-IV criteria for dependence provided daily withdrawal-related functional impairment scores during a one-week baseline phase and two weeks of monitored abstinence from cannabis with a one month follow up. Functional impairment from withdrawal symptoms was strongly associated with symptom severity (p=0.0001. Participants with more severe cannabis dependence before the abstinence attempt reported greater functional impairment from cannabis withdrawal (p=0.03. Relapse to cannabis use during the abstinence period was associated with greater functional impairment from a subset of withdrawal symptoms in high dependence users. Higher levels of functional impairment during the abstinence attempt predicted higher levels of cannabis use at one month follow up (p=0.001.Cannabis withdrawal is clinically significant because it is associated with functional impairment to normal daily activities, as well as relapse to cannabis use. Sample size in the relapse group was small and the use of a non-treatment seeking population requires findings to be replicated in clinical samples. Tailoring treatments to target withdrawal symptoms contributing to functional impairment during a quit attempt may improve treatment outcomes.

  16. Predictive medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boenink, Marianne; ten Have, Henk

    2015-01-01

    In the last part of the twentieth century, predictive medicine has gained currency as an important ideal in biomedical research and health care. Research in the genetic and molecular basis of disease suggested that the insights gained might be used to develop tests that predict the future health

  17. [Prognostic significance of the cyclic AMP concentration in acute leukemias].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paietta, E; Mittermayer, K; Schwarzmeier, J D

    1979-01-01

    In patients with acute leukemia (myeloblastic, lymphoblastic, undifferentiated) proliferation kinetics and cyclic adenosine-3', 5'-monophosphate (cAMP) concentration of the leukemic cells were studied for their significance in the prediction of responsiveness to cytostatic therapy. Patients with good clinical response had significantly faster turnover and lower cAMP-levels than those who failed to respond to treatment.

  18. Adaptive significance of root grafting in trees

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loehle, C.; Jones, R.

    1988-12-31

    Root grafting has long been observed in forest trees but the adaptive significance of this trait has not been fully explained. Various authors have proposed that root grafting between trees contributes to mechanical support by linking adjacent root systems. Keeley proposes that this trait would be of greatest advantage in swamps where soils provide poor mechanical support. He provides as evidence a greenhouse study of Nyssa sylvatica Marsh in which seedlings of swamp provenance formed between-individual root grafts more frequently than upland provenance seedlings. In agreement with this within-species study, Keeley observed that arid zone species rarely exhibit grafts. Keeley also demonstrated that vines graft less commonly than trees, and herbs never do. Since the need for mechanical support coincides with this trend, these data seem to support his model. In this paper, the authors explore the mechanisms and ecological significance of root grafting, leading to predictions of root grafting incidence. Some observations support and some contradict the mechanical support hypothesis.

  19. Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjørn Sven; Ohneberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article...... provides a comprehensive review and classification of the literature related to the topic of Prediction Markets. Overall, 316 relevant articles, published in the timeframe from 2007 through 2013, were identified and assigned to a herein presented classification scheme, differentiating between descriptive...... works, articles of theoretical nature, application-oriented studies and articles dealing with the topic of law and policy. The analysis of the research results reveals that more than half of the literature pool deals with the application and actual function tests of Prediction Markets. The results...

  20. Utilidad de los puntajes clínicos para mejorar la predicción de enfermedad coronaria significativa después de una prueba de esfuerzo convencional Usefulness of clinical scores to improve prediction of significant coronary heart disease after conventional treadmill exercise testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando A Guerrero

    2008-10-01

    mejoren aún más dicho desempeño.Background: in the last AHA/ACC expert consensus document, clinical scores to improve sensitivity (68% and specificity (77% of the exercise testing, diagnostic method considered a first line diagnostic method for coronary heart disease treatment (one of the main causes of mortality in Colombia and worldwide, are recommended. Nevertheless, few institutions in our country use them and they are difficult to apply in populations different to the ones for which they were developed. For this reason, a study to assess its performance in our environment, is needed. Materials and Methods: Morise and Duke treadmill scores were chosen to assess the reason for its validation in several populations, and were mentioned in the AHA/ACC consensus. The Morise and Duke scores classified patients in at low, middle and high risk for coronary heart disease. Primary objectives: validate the prediction scales for coronary heart disease and determine the best cutoff value for each score in a one year follow-up. Secondary objectives: determine the composite endpoint for acute myocardial infarction, cardiac death, angina requiring hospitalization, coronary obstruction >50% and/or angioplasty and stent implantation. Determine the best cutoff point through the ROC curves. Inclusion Criteria: patients >18 years old with suspected coronary heart disease. Exclusion Criteria: pregnant women with documented coronary heart disease, uninterpretable EKG, incapacity or contraindication for performing exercise stress test for any reason, ST depression 27,5: 18% (45 and diabetes mellitus: 16% (19. Morise score classified 36% (43 patients at low risk, 52% (61 at intermediate risk and 12% (14 at high risk. According to Duke the results were 53% (63, 41% (48 and 6% (7 respectively. When interpreting an isolated exercise testing, cardiologists classified patients: 81% (95 negative, 8% (10 suggestive and 11% (14 positive. The composite endpoint appeared in 11% (14 patients. When

  1. Significant and Basic Innovations in Urban Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolyasnikov, V. A.

    2017-11-01

    The article considers the development features of the innovative urban planning in the USSR and Russia in XVIII - XX centuries. Innovative urban planning is defined as an activity on innovations creation and their implementation to obtain a socio-economic, political, environmental or other effect. In the course of urban development history this activity represents a cyclic wave process in which there are phases of rise and fall. The study of cyclic waves in the development of innovative urban planning uses the concept of basic and epochal innovations selection. This concept was developed by scientists for the study of cyclic wave processes in economics. Its adaptation to the conditions of innovative urban planning development allows one to introduce the concept of “basic innovation” and “significant innovation” in the theory and practice of settlement formation and their systems as well as to identify opportunities to highlight these innovations in the history of Russian urban planning. From these positions, six innovation waves committed to the urban development over the past 300 years are being investigated. The observed basic innovations in the domestic urban area show that urban development is a vital area for ensuring the country’s geopolitical security. Basic innovations are translated in time and modernized under new conditions of urban planning development. In this regard, we can predict the development of four basic innovations in post-Soviet Russia.

  2. Predicting unpredictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.

    2018-04-01

    Analysts and markets have struggled to predict a number of phenomena, such as the rise of natural gas, in US energy markets over the past decade or so. Research shows the challenge may grow because the industry — and consequently the market — is becoming increasingly volatile.

  3. Prediction of bull fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utt, Matthew D

    2016-06-01

    Prediction of male fertility is an often sought-after endeavor for many species of domestic animals. This review will primarily focus on providing some examples of dependent and independent variables to stimulate thought about the approach and methodology of identifying the most appropriate of those variables to predict bull (bovine) fertility. Although the list of variables will continue to grow with advancements in science, the principles behind making predictions will likely not change significantly. The basic principle of prediction requires identifying a dependent variable that is an estimate of fertility and an independent variable or variables that may be useful in predicting the fertility estimate. Fertility estimates vary in which parts of the process leading to conception that they infer about and the amount of variation that influences the estimate and the uncertainty thereof. The list of potential independent variables can be divided into competence of sperm based on their performance in bioassays or direct measurement of sperm attributes. A good prediction will use a sample population of bulls that is representative of the population to which an inference will be made. Both dependent and independent variables should have a dynamic range in their values. Careful selection of independent variables includes reasonable measurement repeatability and minimal correlation among variables. Proper estimation and having an appreciation of the degree of uncertainty of dependent and independent variables are crucial for using predictions to make decisions regarding bull fertility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Generalized Predictive Control and Neural Generalized Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadhana CHIDRAWAR

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available As Model Predictive Control (MPC relies on the predictive Control using a multilayer feed forward network as the plants linear model is presented. In using Newton-Raphson as the optimization algorithm, the number of iterations needed for convergence is significantly reduced from other techniques. This paper presents a detailed derivation of the Generalized Predictive Control and Neural Generalized Predictive Control with Newton-Raphson as minimization algorithm. Taking three separate systems, performances of the system has been tested. Simulation results show the effect of neural network on Generalized Predictive Control. The performance comparison of this three system configurations has been given in terms of ISE and IAE.

  5. Unification predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghilencea, D.; Ross, G.G.; Lanzagorta, M.

    1997-07-01

    The unification of gauge couplings suggests that there is an underlying (supersymmetric) unification of the strong, electromagnetic and weak interactions. The prediction of the unification scale may be the first quantitative indication that this unification may extend to unification with gravity. We make a precise determination of these predictions for a class of models which extend the multiplet structure of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model to include the heavy states expected in many Grand Unified and/or superstring theories. We show that there is a strong cancellation between the 2-loop and threshold effects. As a result the net effect is smaller than previously thought, giving a small increase in both the unification scale and the value of the strong coupling at low energies. (author). 15 refs, 5 figs

  6. Significant wave height retrieval from synthetic radar images

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijaya, Andreas Parama; van Groesen, Embrecht W.C.

    2014-01-01

    In many offshore activities radar imagery is used to observe and predict ocean waves. An important issue in analyzing the radar images is to resolve the significant wave height. Different from 3DFFT methods that use an estimate related to the square root of the signal-to-noise ratio of radar images,

  7. Prognostic significance of erythropoietin in pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thilo Welsch

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Erythropoietin (Epo administration has been reported to have tumor-promoting effects in anemic cancer patients. We investigated the prognostic impact of endogenous Epo in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC. METHODOLOGY: The clinico-pathological relevance of hemoglobin (Hb, n = 150, serum Epo (sEpo, n = 87 and tissue expression of Epo/Epo receptor (EpoR, n = 104 was analyzed in patients with PDAC. Epo/EpoR expression, signaling, growth, invasion and chemoresistance were studied in Epo-exposed PDAC cell lines. RESULTS: Compared to donors, median preoperative Hb levels were reduced by 15% in both chronic pancreatitis (CP, p<0.05 and PDAC (p<0.001, reaching anemic grade in one third of patients. While inversely correlating to Hb (r = -0.46, 95% of sEPO values lay within the normal range. The individual levels of compensation were adequate in CP (observed to predicted ratio, O/P = 0.99 but not in PDAC (O/P = 0.85. Strikingly, lower sEPO values yielding inadequate Epo responses were prominent in non-metastatic M0-patients, whereas these parameters were restored in metastatic M1-group (8 vs. 13 mU/mL; O/P = 0.82 vs. 0.96; p<0.01--although Hb levels and the prevalence of anemia were comparable. Higher sEpo values (upper quartile ≥ 16 mU/ml were not significantly different in M0 (20% and M1 (30% groups, but were an independent prognostic factor for shorter survival (HR 2.20, 10 vs. 17 months, p<0.05. The pattern of Epo expression in pancreas and liver suggested ectopic release of Epo by capillaries/vasa vasorum and hepatocytes, regulated by but not emanating from tumor cells. Epo could initiate PI3K/Akt signaling via EpoR in PDAC cells but failed to alter their functions, probably due to co-expression of the soluble EpoR isoform, known to antagonize Epo. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Higher sEPO levels counteract anemia but worsen outcome in PDAC patients. Further trials are required to clarify how overcoming a sEPO threshold

  8. Cell phone users, reported crash risk, unsafe driving behaviors and dispositions: a survey of motorists in Maryland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Kenneth H; Yan, Fang; Wang, Min Qi

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to identify risky driving behaviors and dispositions that distinguish drivers who use a cell phone while operating a motor vehicle from non-cell phone using drivers. Annual telephone surveys were used to identify drivers who reported using a cell phone while driving in the last month (n=1803) and were compared to those who said they did not use cell phones while driving (n=1578). Cell phone using drivers were more likely to report driving while drowsy, going 20 mph over the speed limit, driving aggressively, running a stop sign or red light, and driving after having had several drinks. They were also more likely to have had a prior history of citation and crash involvement than non-cell phone using drivers. Cell phone using drivers also reported they were less careful and more in a hurry when they drive than non-cell phone using drivers. Cell phone using drivers report engaging in many behaviors that place them at risk for a traffic crash, independent of the specific driving impairments that cell phone usage may produce. Strategies that combine coordinated and sustained enforcement activities along with widespread public awareness campaigns hold promise as effective countermeasures for these drivers, who resemble aggressive drivers in many respects.

  9. Distracted Walking, Bicycling, and Driving: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Mobile Technology and Youth Crash Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrinos, Despina; Pope, Caitlin N; Shen, Jiabin; Schwebel, David C

    2018-01-01

    This article examined the impact of mobile technology on young pedestrians, bicyclists, and drivers. A systematic search yielded 41 articles meeting inclusion criteria: peer-reviewed, published before February 1, 2016, behavioral outcome related to pedestrian, bicycling, or driving in the presence of mobile technology use, youth sample. Eleven studies were meta-analyzed to evaluate increased risk for crash/near-crash while distracted. Risk of bias and quality of research were assessed. Across methodologies, developmental stages, and type of distracting task, mobile technology use impairs youth safety on the road. Quality of evidence was low (pedestrian) to moderate (driving). Findings are discussed from the perspective of cognitive and visual distractions. Policy and behavioral efforts should continue to reduce mobile technology use in transportation settings. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  10. Deep Visual Attention Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenguan; Shen, Jianbing

    2018-05-01

    In this work, we aim to predict human eye fixation with view-free scenes based on an end-to-end deep learning architecture. Although Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have made substantial improvement on human attention prediction, it is still needed to improve CNN based attention models by efficiently leveraging multi-scale features. Our visual attention network is proposed to capture hierarchical saliency information from deep, coarse layers with global saliency information to shallow, fine layers with local saliency response. Our model is based on a skip-layer network structure, which predicts human attention from multiple convolutional layers with various reception fields. Final saliency prediction is achieved via the cooperation of those global and local predictions. Our model is learned in a deep supervision manner, where supervision is directly fed into multi-level layers, instead of previous approaches of providing supervision only at the output layer and propagating this supervision back to earlier layers. Our model thus incorporates multi-level saliency predictions within a single network, which significantly decreases the redundancy of previous approaches of learning multiple network streams with different input scales. Extensive experimental analysis on various challenging benchmark datasets demonstrate our method yields state-of-the-art performance with competitive inference time.

  11. Significance of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance on ThinPrep papanicolaou smears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eltabbakh, G H; Lipman, J N; Mount, S L; Morgan, A

    2000-10-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and risk factors predictive of dysplasia among women seen in a gynecologic oncology service with the cytologic diagnosis of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) on Papanicolaou smears obtained by the ThinPrep method. Patients with ASCUS ThinPrep Papanicolaou smears seen at the Division of Gynecologic Oncology, University of Vermont, between 1997 and 1999 were identified. The cytologic smears were reviewed and subtyped into reactive or suggestive of squamous intraepithelial lesion (SIL). The charts of these patients were reviewed and the following information was abstracted: age, gravidity, parity, menopausal status, use of hormonal replacement therapy, smoking, history of pelvic cancer, history of radiation therapy, history of abnormal Papanicolaou smear and its treatment, history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, and follow-up information including results of repeat Papanicolaou smears, colposcopy, and biopsies. The prevalence of dysplasia was calculated. The demographic features of women with ASCUS, reactive, were compared with those with ASCUS, SIL, using a two-sample t test, chi(2), and Fisher's exact test. Risk factors predictive of dysplasia were calculated using the odds ratio and the 95% confidence interval. P ASCUS on ThinPrep Papanicolaou smear were identified; 63 patients had ASCUS, reactive, and 63 patients had ASCUS, SIL. The demographic features of both groups were similar. The overall prevalence of dysplasia was 15.9% and was significantly higher among women with ASCUS, SIL, than among women with ASCUS, reactive (25.4% versus 6.4%, P = 0.003). The type of ASCUS cytology (reactive versus SIL), smoking, and history of HPV were significant risk factors for dysplasia (P = 0.003, 0.037, and 0. 042, respectively). The prevalence of dysplasia among women seen in a gynecologic oncology service with ASCUS cytology on ThinPrep Papanicolaou smears is 15.9%. Women with ASCUS favor

  12. Impact significance determination-Back to basics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrence, David P.

    2007-01-01

    Impact significance determination is widely recognized as a vital and critical EIA activity. But impact significance related concepts are poorly understood. And the quality of approaches for impact significance determination in EIA practice remains highly variable. This article seeks to help establish a sound and practical conceptual foundation for formulating and evaluating impact significance determination approaches. It addresses the nature (what is impact significance?), the core characteristics (what are the major properties of significance determination?), the rationale (why are impact significance determinations necessary?), the procedural and substantive objectives (what do impact significance determinations seek to achieve?), and the process for making impact significance judgments (how is impact significance determination conducted?). By identifying fundamental attributes and key distinctions associated with impact significance determinations, a basis is provided for designing and evaluating impact significance determination procedures at both the regulatory and applied levels

  13. Significance of prostatic weight in prostatism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, K M; Bruskewitz, R C; Iversen, P

    1983-01-01

    In addition to routine evaluation, 68 patients with prostatism underwent blinded urodynamic testing prior to transurethral prostatectomy and were reexamined symptomatologically and urodynamically at 3 and 12 months after surgery to determine if prostatic weight could predict postoperative outcome....... Resected prostatic weight correlated with estimated weight at cystoscopy and with obstructive symptoms, but not with urodynamic variables of infravesical obstruction. Patients with small prostates improved symptomatologically to the same degree as patients with larger glands, although they did not improve...... to the same degree urodynamically. Prostatic weight, therefore, could not be used to predict the outcome of transurethral surgery....

  14. Predictive systems ecology

    OpenAIRE

    Evans, Matthew R.; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J.; Dall, Sasha R. X.; D?az, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J.; Lewis, Simon L.; Mace, Georgina M.; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of ...

  15. The interactional significance of formulas in autistic language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbinson, Sushie; Perkins, Mick; Boucher, Jill

    2003-01-01

    The phenomenon of echolalia in autistic language is well documented. Whilst much early research dismissed echolalia as merely an indicator of cognitive limitation, later work identified particular discourse functions of echolalic utterances. The work reported here extends the study of the interactional significance of echolalia to formulaic utterances. Audio and video recordings of conversations between the first author and two research participants were transcribed and analysed according to a Conversation Analysis framework and a multi-layered linguistic framework. Formulaic language was found to have predictable interactional significance within the language of an individual with autism, and the generic phenomenon of formulaicity in company with predictable discourse function was seen to hold across the research participants, regardless of cognitive ability. The implications of formulaicity in autistic language for acquisition and processing mechanisms are discussed.

  16. How significant is the ‘significant other’? Associations between significant others’ health behaviors and attitudes and young adults’ health outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berge Jerica M

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Having a significant other has been shown to be protective against physical and psychological health conditions for adults. Less is known about the period of emerging young adulthood and associations between significant others’ weight and weight-related health behaviors (e.g. healthy dietary intake, the frequency of physical activity, weight status. This study examined the association between significant others’ health attitudes and behaviors regarding eating and physical activity and young adults’ weight status, dietary intake, and physical activity. Methods This study uses data from Project EAT-III, a population-based cohort study with emerging young adults from diverse ethnic and socioeconomic backgrounds (n = 1212. Logistic regression models examining cross-sectional associations, adjusted for sociodemographics and health behaviors five years earlier, were used to estimate predicted probabilities and calculate prevalence differences. Results Young adult women whose significant others had health promoting attitudes/behaviors were significantly less likely to be overweight/obese and were more likely to eat ≥ 5 fruits/vegetables per day and engage in ≥ 3.5 hours/week of physical activity, compared to women whose significant others did not have health promoting behaviors/attitudes. Young adult men whose significant other had health promoting behaviors/attitudes were more likely to engage in ≥ 3.5 hours/week of physical activity compared to men whose significant others did not have health promoting behaviors/attitudes. Conclusions Findings suggest the protective nature of the significant other with regard to weight-related health behaviors of young adults, particularly for young adult women. Obesity prevention efforts should consider the importance of including the significant other in intervention efforts with young adult women and potentially men.

  17. Identification of sequence motifs significantly associated with antisense activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peek Andrew S

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Predicting the suppression activity of antisense oligonucleotide sequences is the main goal of the rational design of nucleic acids. To create an effective predictive model, it is important to know what properties of an oligonucleotide sequence associate significantly with antisense activity. Also, for the model to be efficient we must know what properties do not associate significantly and can be omitted from the model. This paper will discuss the results of a randomization procedure to find motifs that associate significantly with either high or low antisense suppression activity, analysis of their properties, as well as the results of support vector machine modelling using these significant motifs as features. Results We discovered 155 motifs that associate significantly with high antisense suppression activity and 202 motifs that associate significantly with low suppression activity. The motifs range in length from 2 to 5 bases, contain several motifs that have been previously discovered as associating highly with antisense activity, and have thermodynamic properties consistent with previous work associating thermodynamic properties of sequences with their antisense activity. Statistical analysis revealed no correlation between a motif's position within an antisense sequence and that sequences antisense activity. Also, many significant motifs existed as subwords of other significant motifs. Support vector regression experiments indicated that the feature set of significant motifs increased correlation compared to all possible motifs as well as several subsets of the significant motifs. Conclusion The thermodynamic properties of the significantly associated motifs support existing data correlating the thermodynamic properties of the antisense oligonucleotide with antisense efficiency, reinforcing our hypothesis that antisense suppression is strongly associated with probe/target thermodynamics, as there are no enzymatic

  18. Creating Significant Learning Experiences across Disciplines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Laura E.; Fallahi, Carolyn R.; Nicoll-Senft, Joan M.; Tessier, Jack T.; Watson, Cheryl L.; Wood, Rebecca M.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to use Fink's (2003) taxonomy of significant learning to redesign courses and assess student learning. Significant improvements were found across the semester for students in the six courses, but there were differences in which taxa showed improvement in each course. The meta-analysis showed significant, positive…

  19. 23 CFR 630.1010 - Significant projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 23 Highways 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Significant projects. 630.1010 Section 630.1010 Highways... PRECONSTRUCTION PROCEDURES Work Zone Safety and Mobility § 630.1010 Significant projects. (a) A significant project is one that, alone or in combination with other concurrent projects nearby is anticipated to cause...

  20. Predictable Medea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta Bertolino

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available By focusing on the tragedy of the 'unpredictable' infanticide perpetrated by Medea, the paper speculates on the possibility of a non-violent ontological subjectivity for women victims of gendered violence and whether it is possible to respond to violent actions in non-violent ways; it argues that Medea did not act in an unpredictable way, rather through the very predictable subject of resentment and violence. 'Medea' represents the story of all of us who require justice as retribution against any wrong. The presupposition is that the empowered female subjectivity of women’s rights contains the same desire of mastering others of the masculine current legal and philosophical subject. The subject of women’s rights is grounded on the emotions of resentment and retribution and refuses the categories of the private by appropriating those of the righteous, masculine and public subject. The essay opposes the essentialised stereotypes of the feminine and the maternal with an ontological approach of people as singular, corporeal, vulnerable and dependent. There is therefore an emphasis on the excluded categories of the private. Forgiveness is taken into account as a category of the private and a possibility of responding to violence with newness. A violent act is seen in relations to the community of human beings rather than through an isolated setting as in the case of the individual of human rights. In this context, forgiveness allows to risk again and being with. The result is also a rethinking of feminist actions, feminine subjectivity and of the maternal. Overall the paper opens up the Arendtian category of action and forgiveness and the Cavarerian unique and corporeal ontology of the selfhood beyond gendered stereotypes.

  1. Significance of tissue edema patterns following angioocclusion: Predictability of therapeutic efficacy with MR imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kauffman, G.W.; Richter, G.M.; Roeren, T.; Friedburg, H.G.; Wenz, W.

    1987-01-01

    In an experimental and clinical study the authors assessed the potential of MR imaging to demonstrate tissue edema after central and capillary embolization. Thirty Wistar rats underwent either central or capillary Ethibloc embolization. MR imaging revealed that tissue edema after capillary embolization started sooner, laster longer, was more intense, and was much more homogeneous than after central occlusion. In addition, total necrosis was found microscopically only after capillary embolization. In six clinical cases of renal tumor embolization with Ethibloc, MR imaging similarly demonstrated a rapidly developing and homogeneous edema that decreased when tumor shrinkage was found. In all these patients complete tumor necrosis was proved with CT

  2. Is the Bishop-score significant in predicting the success of labor induction in multiparous women?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navve, D; Orenstein, N; Ribak, R; Daykan, Y; Shechter-Maor, G; Biron-Shental, T

    2017-05-01

    To determine whether the Bishop-score upon admission effects mode of delivery, maternal or neonatal outcomes of labor induction in multiparous women. A retrospective study including 600 multiparous women with a singleton pregnancy, 34 gestational weeks and above who underwent labor induction for maternal, fetal or combined indications. Induction was performed with one of three methods- oxytocin, a slow release vaginal prostaglandin E2 insert (10 mg dinoprostone) or a transcervical double balloon catheter. The women were divided into two groups-Bishop-score manual lysis, uterine revision, perineal tear grade 3-4, need for blood transfusions, relaparotomy, prolonged hospitalization) and neonatal outcomes (Apgar score, cord pH, hospitalization in the neonatal intensive care unit, prolonged hospitalization). Both groups had a high rate of vaginal deliveries-93.7% and 94.9%, respectively. There was no difference between the two groups in terms of maternal or neonatal outcomes. Labor induction in multiparous women is safe and successful regardless of the initial Bishop-score. In multiparous women the Bishop-score is not a good predictor for the success of labor induction, nor is it a predictor for maternal of neonatal adverse outcomes and complications.

  3. Prediction of significant factors in the production of ethanol by ragi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Taguchi's method with orthogonal array of L8 was applied in design of experiment (DOE) and the results were analyzed using MINITAB v14 software. Seven factors: Nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium (NPK), urea, fermentation temperature, ragi tapai concentration, S. cerevisiae concentration, agitation and co-culturing time ...

  4. Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, Amir; Wang, Guiling; Fomenko, Lori

    2017-07-19

    Tropical and sub-tropical South America are highly susceptible to extreme droughts. Recent events include two droughts (2005 and 2010) exceeding the 100-year return value in the Amazon and recurrent extreme droughts in the Nordeste region, with profound eco-hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. In 2015-2016, both regions were hit by another drought. Here, we show that the severity of the 2015-2016 drought ("2016 drought" hereafter) is unprecedented based on multiple precipitation products (since 1900), satellite-derived data on terrestrial water storage (since 2002) and two vegetation indices (since 2004). The ecohydrological consequences from the 2016 drought are more severe and extensive than the 2005 and 2010 droughts. Empirical relationships between rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic are used to assess the role of tropical oceanic variability in the observed precipitation anomalies. Our results indicate that warmer-than-usual SSTs in the Tropical Pacific (including El Niño events) and Atlantic were the main drivers of extreme droughts in South America, but are unable to explain the severity of the 2016 observed rainfall deficits for a substantial portion of the Amazonia and Nordeste regions. This strongly suggests potential contribution of non-oceanic factors (e.g., land cover change and CO2-induced warming) to the 2016 drought.

  5. Velamentous Cord Insertion: Significance of Prenatal Detection to Predict Perinatal Complications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junichi Hasegawa

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available In the maternal and child health statistics of Japan for 2003, perinatal deaths were most frequent in pregnant women with abnormalities of the placenta, umbilical cord, and fetal membrane. Despite advances in perinatal medicine, approximately 2% of low-risk pregnant women still require an emergency cesarean section after the onset of labor. Because it is likely that half of these cases are associated with placental and umbilical cord abnormalities, it is thought that prenatal detection of such abnormalities would reduce the number of emergency cesarean sections in low-risk women. In our previous studies, some abnormalities of the placenta and umbilical cord were associated with abnormalities of cord insertion. Furthermore, we reported that prenatal detection of velamentous cord insertion (VCI reduced the number of emergency cesarean sections in low-risk women. In this review, we describe the prenatal detection of abnormalities of umbilical cord insertion and the management of VCI based on our current clinical data.

  6. Developing Quantum Chemical and Polyparameter Models for Predicting Environmentally Significant Parameters for New Munition Compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-31

    in fish , plants, and soil invertebrates have been used to build the models. In addition the BCFs for a soil invertebrate (oligochaete Eisenia......Streit B, Nagel R. Tubifex tubifex as a link in food chain transfer of hexachlorobenzene from contaminated sediment to fish . Hydrobiologia

  7. Prediction of significant factors in the production of ethanol by ragi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GREGORY

    2011-12-16

    Dec 16, 2011 ... 2Department of Biotechnology Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, International Islamic University Malaysia,. P.O. Box 10, 50728 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Accepted 7 November, 2011. Ethanol production by co-culture of ragi tapai and Saccharomyces cerevisiae from unhydrolyzed cassava starch without ...

  8. Predicting reaerosolization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniel, William Brent [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Omberg, Kristin M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-11-29

    Outdoor studies of the environmental persistence of bacteria have led to many interesting results. It turns out that the initial deposition of bacteria is not the end of the story. We examined both the ongoing daily deposition and aerosolization of bacteria for two weeks following an initial deposition event. Differences between samples collected in a clearing and those collected beneath a forest canopy were also examined. There were two important results: first, bacteria were still moving about in significant quantities after two weeks, though the local environment where they were most prevalent appeared to shift over time; second, we were able to develop a simple mathematical model that could fairly accurately estimate the average daily airborne concentration of bacteria over the duration of the experiment using readily available environmental information. The implication is that deposition patterns are very likely to shift over an extended period of time following a release, possibly quite significantly, but there is hope that we may be able to estimate these changes fairly accurately.

  9. Methodology, theoretical framework and scholarly significance: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Methodology, theoretical framework and scholarly significance: An overview ... AFRICAN JOURNALS ONLINE (AJOL) · Journals · Advanced Search ... Keywords: Legal Research, Methodology, Theory, Pedagogy, Legal Training, Scholarship ...

  10. Impact significance determination-Pushing the boundaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrence, David P.

    2007-01-01

    Impact significance determination practice tends to be highly variable. Too often insufficient consideration is given to good practice insights. Also, impact significance determinations are frequently narrowly defined addressing, for example, only individual, negative impacts, focusing on bio-physical impacts, and not seeking to integrate either the Precautionary Principle or sustainability. This article seeks to extend the boundaries of impact significance determination practice by providing an overview of good general impact significance practices, together with stakeholder roles and potential methods for addressing significance determination challenges. Relevant thresholds, criteria, contextual considerations and support methods are also highlighted. The analysis is then extended to address how impact significance determination practices change for positive as compared with negative impacts, for cumulative as compared with individual impacts, for socio-economic as compared with bio-physical impacts, when the Precautionary Principle is integrated into the process, and when sustainability contributions drive the EIA process and related impact significance determinations. These refinements can assist EIA practitioners in ensuring that the scope and nature of impact significance determinations reflect the broadened scope of emerging EIA requirements and practices. Suggestions are included for further refining and testing of the proposed changes to impact significance determination practice

  11. Regionally Significant Ecological Areas - MLCCS derived 2008

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — This is an analysis of regionally significant Terrestrial and Wetland Ecological Areas in the seven county metropolitan area. Individual forest, grassland and...

  12. Central Region Regionally Ecological Significant Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — This is an analysis of regionally significant Terrestrial and Wetland Ecological Areas in the seven county metropolitan area. Individual forest, grassland and...

  13. Tundra permafrost thaw causes significant shifts in energy partitioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Stiegler

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Permafrost, a key component of the arctic and global climate system, is highly sensitive to climate change. Observed and ongoing permafrost degradation influences arctic hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry, and models predict that rapid warming is expected to significantly reduce near-surface permafrost and seasonally frozen ground during the 21st century. These changes raise concern of how permafrost thaw affects the exchange of water and energy with the atmosphere. However, associated impacts of permafrost thaw on the surface energy balance and possible feedbacks on the climate system are largely unknown. In this study, we show that in northern subarctic Sweden, permafrost thaw and related degradation of peat plateaus significantly change the surface energy balance of three peatland complexes by enhancing latent heat flux and, to less degree, also ground heat flux at the cost of sensible heat flux. This effect is valid at all radiation levels but more pronounced at higher radiation levels. The observed differences in flux partitioning mainly result from the strong coupling between soil moisture availability, vegetation composition, albedo and surface structure. Our results suggest that ongoing and predicted permafrost degradation in northern subarctic Sweden ultimately result in changes in land–atmosphere coupling due to changes in the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes. This in turn has crucial implications for how predictive climate models for the Arctic are further developed.

  14. The thresholds for statistical and clinical significance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Janus Christian; Gluud, Christian; Winkel, Per

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Thresholds for statistical significance are insufficiently demonstrated by 95% confidence intervals or P-values when assessing results from randomised clinical trials. First, a P-value only shows the probability of getting a result assuming that the null hypothesis is true and does...... not reflect the probability of getting a result assuming an alternative hypothesis to the null hypothesis is true. Second, a confidence interval or a P-value showing significance may be caused by multiplicity. Third, statistical significance does not necessarily result in clinical significance. Therefore...... of the probability that a given trial result is compatible with a 'null' effect (corresponding to the P-value) divided by the probability that the trial result is compatible with the intervention effect hypothesised in the sample size calculation; (3) adjust the confidence intervals and the statistical significance...

  15. What if there were no significance tests?

    CERN Document Server

    Harlow, Lisa L; Steiger, James H

    2013-01-01

    This book is the result of a spirited debate stimulated by a recent meeting of the Society of Multivariate Experimental Psychology. Although the viewpoints span a range of perspectives, the overriding theme that emerges states that significance testing may still be useful if supplemented with some or all of the following -- Bayesian logic, caution, confidence intervals, effect sizes and power, other goodness of approximation measures, replication and meta-analysis, sound reasoning, and theory appraisal and corroboration. The book is organized into five general areas. The first presents an overview of significance testing issues that sythesizes the highlights of the remainder of the book. The next discusses the debate in which significance testing should be rejected or retained. The third outlines various methods that may supplement current significance testing procedures. The fourth discusses Bayesian approaches and methods and the use of confidence intervals versus significance tests. The last presents the p...

  16. Predicting Bankruptcy in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul RASHID

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to identify the financial ratios that are most significant in bankruptcy prediction for the non-financial sector of Pakistan based on a sample of companies which became bankrupt over the time period 1996-2006. Twenty four financial ratios covering four important financial attributes, namely profitability, liquidity, leverage, and turnover ratios, were examined for a five-year period prior bankruptcy. The discriminant analysis produced a parsimonious model of three variables viz. sales to total assets, EBIT to current liabilities, and cash flow ratio. Our estimates provide evidence that the firms having Z-value below zero fall into the “bankrupt” whereas the firms with Z-value above zero fall into the “non-bankrupt” category. The model achieved 76.9% prediction accuracy when it is applied to forecast bankruptcies on the underlying sample.

  17. Comparing Spatial Predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Hering, Amanda S.

    2011-11-01

    Under a general loss function, we develop a hypothesis test to determine whether a significant difference in the spatial predictions produced by two competing models exists on average across the entire spatial domain of interest. The null hypothesis is that of no difference, and a spatial loss differential is created based on the observed data, the two sets of predictions, and the loss function chosen by the researcher. The test assumes only isotropy and short-range spatial dependence of the loss differential but does allow it to be non-Gaussian, non-zero-mean, and spatially correlated. Constant and nonconstant spatial trends in the loss differential are treated in two separate cases. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the size and power properties of this test, and an example based on daily average wind speeds in Oklahoma is used for illustration. Supplemental results are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Qualitys.

  18. Postprocessing for Air Quality Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delle Monache, L.

    2017-12-01

    In recent year, air quality (AQ) forecasting has made significant progress towards better predictions with the goal of protecting the public from harmful pollutants. This progress is the results of improvements in weather and chemical transport models, their coupling, and more accurate emission inventories (e.g., with the development of new algorithms to account in near real-time for fires). Nevertheless, AQ predictions are still affected at times by significant biases which stem from limitations in both weather and chemistry transport models. Those are the result of numerical approximations and the poor representation (and understanding) of important physical and chemical process. Moreover, although the quality of emission inventories has been significantly improved, they are still one of the main sources of uncertainties in AQ predictions. For operational real-time AQ forecasting, a significant portion of these biases can be reduced with the implementation of postprocessing methods. We will review some of the techniques that have been proposed to reduce both systematic and random errors of AQ predictions, and improve the correlation between predictions and observations of ground-level ozone and surface particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5). These methods, which can be applied to both deterministic and probabilistic predictions, include simple bias-correction techniques, corrections inspired by the Kalman filter, regression methods, and the more recently developed analog-based algorithms. These approaches will be compared and contrasted, and strength and weaknesses of each will be discussed.

  19. Mining Significant Semantic Locations from GPS Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cao, Xin; Cong, Gao; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

    2010-01-01

    With the increasing deployment and use of GPS-enabled devices, massive amounts of GPS data are becoming available. We propose a general framework for the mining of semantically meaningful, significant locations, e.g., shopping malls and restaurants, from such data. We present techniques capable...... of extracting semantic locations from GPS data. We capture the relationships between locations and between locations and users with a graph. Significance is then assigned to locations using random walks over the graph that propagates significance among the locations. In doing so, mutual reinforcement between...

  20. Discovering the Significance of Scientific Design Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pries-Heje, Jan; Baskerville, Richard

    2016-01-01

    This paper discusses and defines the achievement of significance in design science research. We review the values and processes of old-science and how this mode of science attacks the complexity of scientific knowledge production through analysis. We then explain how new-science attacks...... the complexity of scientific knowledge production through synthesis. The work argues that significance of the new-science contribution in design science can be obfuscated when wrapped in old-science. This understanding helps reveal how new-science, such as design science research, constitutes its significance...

  1. Mining significant semantic locations from GPS data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cao, Xin; Cong, Gao; Jensen, Christian S.

    2010-01-01

    With the increasing deployment and use of GPS-enabled devices, massive amounts of GPS data are becoming available. We propose a general framework for the mining of semantically meaningful, significant locations, e.g., shopping malls and restaurants, from such data. We present techniques capable...... of extracting semantic locations from GPS data. We capture the relationships between locations and between locations and users with a graph. Significance is then assigned to locations using random walks over the graph that propagates significance among the locations. In doing so, mutual reinforcement between...

  2. SRS Process Facility Significance Fire Frequency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarrack, A.G. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

    1995-10-01

    This report documents the method and assumptions of a study performed to determine a site generic process facility significant fire initiator frequency and explains the proper way this value should be used.

  3. Can a significance test be genuinely Bayesian?

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Carlos A. de B.; Stern, Julio Michael; Wechsler, Sergio

    2008-01-01

    The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.

  4. 40 CFR 1508.27 - Significantly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Register of Historic Places or may cause loss or destruction of significant scientific, cultural, or... cultural resources, park lands, prime farmlands, wetlands, wild and scenic rivers, or ecologically critical...

  5. Economically Significant Sites - OSPR [ds356

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — This point data set shows locations of Economically Significant Sites along the California coast from Del Norte to San Diego counties. Data for locating these points...

  6. Contribution of radiodiagnosis to genetically significant dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pele, J.M.; Ouvrard, R.

    Surveys were carried out in France on 33,000 X-ray medical examinations. The genetically significant dose to the whole population from roentgenography and fluoroscopy, for typical examinations, should be about 65mrads [fr

  7. SRS Process Facility Significance Fire Frequency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarrack, A.G.

    1995-10-01

    This report documents the method and assumptions of a study performed to determine a site generic process facility significant fire initiator frequency and explains the proper way this value should be used

  8. SIGWX Charts - High Level Significant Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — High level significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts are provided for the en-route portion of international flights. NOAA's National Weather Service Aviation Center...

  9. Asymptomatic bacteriuria. Clinical significance and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raz, Raul

    2003-10-01

    The clinical significance and management of asymptomatic bacteriuria (ASB) differs according to different groups of patients. ASB requires antibiotic treatment in pregnant women, children aged 5-6 years and prior to invasive genitourinary procedures. However, there is a consensus that ASB in the elderly, healthy school girls and young women, diabetic women and patients with indwelling catheters or intermittent catheterization has no clinical significance and antibiotic prescription is not indicated.

  10. Formal conditions for the significance-effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thellefsen, Torkild Leo; Sørensen, Bent; Thellefsen, Martin

    2006-01-01

    The significance-effect is the right effect of meaning caused upon an interpreting mind. The right effect is understood as the right interpretation of an intended meaning caused by a sign communicated by an utterer. In the article, which is inspired by Charles S. Peirce's doctrine of signs, his s...... semeiotics and his theory of communication, we account for the formal conditions that have to be present for the release of the significance-effect....

  11. Significance of Hemispheric Security for Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-04-07

    La Seguridad Internacional, la Nueva Geopolitica Continental y Mexico ,” Seminario Internacional sobre Misiones de Paz, Seguridad y Defensa, Rio de...USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT SIGNIFICANCE OF HEMISPHERIC SECURITY FOR MEXICO by LTC Enrique Garcia Jaramillo Cavalry, Mexican Army COL Joseph R...xx-xx-2002 to xx-xx-2003 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Significance of Hemispheric Security for Mexico Unclassified 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c

  12. Building stones can be of geoheritage significance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocx, Margaret; Semeniuk, Vic

    2017-04-01

    Building stones have generally been assigned values according to their cultural, aesthetic, and rarity significance, amongst other criteria, but they also may have geoheritage significance. This is akin to the geoheritage significance ascribed to minerals and fossils housed as ex situ specimens in museums. We proffer the notion that building stones can be of geoheritage value particularly where they comprise permanent buildings, they illustrate significant windows into the history of the Earth, and they can be visited as an ex situ museum locality (e.g., the "Blue Granite" of Iceland) for education as part of building-stone tours. For some rocks the quarries that supplied the building stone are no longer in existence and hence the building stones provide the only record of that type of material; for other rocks, the building stone may illustrate features in the lithology no longer present in the quarry itself (e.g., rare and large xenoliths). Building stones are particularly significant as they are often polished and manifest structures, fabrics, and textures not evident in outcrop. We illustrate here examples of building stone of geoheritage significance using Australian and International examples. Australian designated stones could include the "Sydney Sandstone" or "Victorian Bluestone". For international examples, there is the famous "Carrara Marble" in Italy and the widely known "Portland Limestone" from southern England, the latter having been utilized for St Pauls Cathedral in London and the UN building in New York City.

  13. Significance of perfectionism in understanding different forms of insomnia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Totić-Poznanović Sanja

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Studies consistently show a connection between perfectionism as a multidimensional construct with various psychological and psychopathological states and characteristics. However, studies that analyze the connection between this concept and sleep disturbances, especially modalities of insomnia, are rare. Objective. The aim of this study was to examine whether dimensions of perfectionism can explain different forms of insomnia; difficulties initiating sleep (insomnia early, difficulties during the sleep (insomnia middle, waking in early hours of the morning (insomnia late and dissatisfaction with sleep quality (subjective insomnia. Methods. The sample consisted of 254 students of the School of Medicine in Belgrade. Predictive significance of nine perfectionism dimensions, measured by Frost’s and Hewitt’s and Flett’s scales of multi-dimensional perfectionism, related to four modalities of insomnia, measured by a structured questionnaire, was analyzed by multiple linear regression method. Results. Perfectionism dimensions are significant predictors of each of the tested forms of insomnia. Doubt about actions significantly predicts initial insomnia; to other-oriented perfectionism in the negative pole and socially prescribed perfectionism underlie the difficulties during the sleep, while organization and parental criticism underlie late insomnia. Significant predictors of subjective insomnia are personal standards and organization and to other-oriented perfectionism on the negative pole. Three of nine analyzed dimensions were not confirmed as significant; concern over mistakes, parental expectations and self-oriented perfectionism. Conclusion. Various aspects of perfectionism can be considered as a vulnerability factor for understanding some forms of insomnia. Out of all forms of insomnia tested, perfectionism as the personality trait proved to be the most significant for understanding subjective insomnia.

  14. Physiological significance of polyploidization in mammalian cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandit, Shusil K; Westendorp, Bart; de Bruin, Alain

    2013-11-01

    Programmed polyploidization occurs in all mammalian species during development and aging in selected tissues, but the biological properties of polyploid cells remain obscure. Spontaneous polyploidization arises during stress and has been observed in a variety of pathological conditions, such as cancer and degenerative diseases. A major challenge in the field is to test the predicted functions of polyploidization in vivo. However, recent genetic mouse models with diminished polyploidization phenotypes represent novel, powerful tools to unravel the biological function of polyploidization. Contrary to a longstanding hypothesis, polyploidization appears to not be required for differentiation and has no obvious impact on proliferation. Instead, polyploidization leads to increased cell size and genetic diversity, which could promote better adaptation to chronic injury or stress. We discuss here the consequences of reducing polyploidization in mice and review which stress responses and molecular signals trigger polyploidization during development and disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Significance of blood pressure variability in patients with sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Nishant Raj; Bian, Yu-Yao; Shou, Song-Tao

    2014-01-01

    This study was undertaken to observe the characteristics of blood pressure variability (BPV) and sepsis and to investigate changes in blood pressure and its value on the severity of illness in patients with sepsis. Blood parameters, APACHE II score, and 24-hour ambulatory BP were analyzed in 89 patients with sepsis. In patients with APACHE II score>19, the values of systolic blood pressure (SBPV), diasystolic blood pressure (DBPV), non-dipper percentage, cortisol (COR), lactate (LAC), platelet count (PLT) and glucose (GLU) were significantly higher than in those with APACHE II score ≤19 (Pblood cell (WBC), creatinine (Cr), PaO2, C-reactive protein (CRP), adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) were not statistically significant (P>0.05). Correlation analysis showed that APACHE II scores correlated significantly with SBPV and DBPV (P0.05). Logistic regression analysis of SBPV, DBPV, APACHE II score, and LAC was used to predict prognosis in terms of survival and non-survival rates. Receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) showed that DBPV was a better predictor of survival rate with an AUC value of 0.890. However, AUC of SBPV, APACHE II score, and LAC was 0.746, 0.831 and 0.915, respectively. The values of SBPV, DBPV and non-dipper percentage are higher in patients with sepsis. DBPV and SBPV can be used to predict the survival rate of patients with sepsis.

  16. Significance of Lead Residues in Mallard Tissues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longcore, J.R.; Locke, L.N.; Bagley, George E.; Andrews, R.

    1974-01-01

    Tissues of adult, lead-dosed mallards that either died or were sacrificed were analyzed for lead. Lead levels in brains, tibiae, and breast muscle of ducks that died and in tibiae of ducks that were sacrificed increased significantly from dosage until death. Lead in the heart, lung, and blood from sacrificed ducks decreased significantly from dosage until death. Lead concentrations in tissues from ducks in the two groups were not significantly different except for the liver, kidney, and lung. Average lead levels in the livers and kidneys of ducks that died were significantly higher than those in ducks that were sacrificed. The mean concentration of lead in the lungs of the ducks sacrificed was significantly higher than the mean level in the lungs of ducks that died. Measurements of the lead concentrations in this study, when compared with lead levels reported in the literature for avian and non-avian species, showed that arbitrary diagnostic levels indicating lead poisoning could be set. In mallard ducks, lead levels exceeding 3 ppm in the brain, 6 to 20 ppm in the kidney or liver, or 10 ppm in clotted blood from the heart indicated acute exposure to lead.

  17. Prediction of regulatory elements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandelin, Albin

    2008-01-01

    Finding the regulatory mechanisms responsible for gene expression remains one of the most important challenges for biomedical research. A major focus in cellular biology is to find functional transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) responsible for the regulation of a downstream gene. As wet......-lab methods are time consuming and expensive, it is not realistic to identify TFBS for all uncharacterized genes in the genome by purely experimental means. Computational methods aimed at predicting potential regulatory regions can increase the efficiency of wet-lab experiments significantly. Here, methods...

  18. Clinical significance of anismus in encopresis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catto-Smith, A G; Nolan, T M; Coffey, C M

    1998-09-01

    Treatments designed to relieve paradoxical contraction of the anal sphincters during defecation (anismus) have had limited success in children with encopresis. This has raised doubts as to the clinical relevance of this diagnosis in childhood as anorectal dysfunction. Our aim was to determine whether, in patients who had treatment-resistant encopresis, the presence of electromyographic anismus was associated with increased faecal retention. Sixty-eight children with soiling (mean age 8.7+/-2.06 years) were assessed by clinical examination, abdominal radiography and then with anorectal manometry. Patients with electromyographic anismus (n=32; 47%) had significantly increased radiographic rectal faecal retention and were significantly less likely to be able to defecate water-filled balloons. There were no significant differences in response to prior therapy, history of primary encopresis, behavioural adjustment or in sociodemographic data. Our results suggest that electromyographic anismus is associated with obstructed defecation and faecal retention.

  19. Statistical significance of cis-regulatory modules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith Andrew D

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is becoming increasingly important for researchers to be able to scan through large genomic regions for transcription factor binding sites or clusters of binding sites forming cis-regulatory modules. Correspondingly, there has been a push to develop algorithms for the rapid detection and assessment of cis-regulatory modules. While various algorithms for this purpose have been introduced, most are not well suited for rapid, genome scale scanning. Results We introduce methods designed for the detection and statistical evaluation of cis-regulatory modules, modeled as either clusters of individual binding sites or as combinations of sites with constrained organization. In order to determine the statistical significance of module sites, we first need a method to determine the statistical significance of single transcription factor binding site matches. We introduce a straightforward method of estimating the statistical significance of single site matches using a database of known promoters to produce data structures that can be used to estimate p-values for binding site matches. We next introduce a technique to calculate the statistical significance of the arrangement of binding sites within a module using a max-gap model. If the module scanned for has defined organizational parameters, the probability of the module is corrected to account for organizational constraints. The statistical significance of single site matches and the architecture of sites within the module can be combined to provide an overall estimation of statistical significance of cis-regulatory module sites. Conclusion The methods introduced in this paper allow for the detection and statistical evaluation of single transcription factor binding sites and cis-regulatory modules. The features described are implemented in the Search Tool for Occurrences of Regulatory Motifs (STORM and MODSTORM software.

  20. How do we make sense of significance?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyhne, Ivar; Kørnøv, Lone

    2013-01-01

    Determination of significance is widely recognised as an important step in environmental assessment (EA) processes. The prescriptive literature and guidance on significance determination is comprehensive within the field of EA, whereas descriptive and explorative studies of how we go about making......' sense-making, including important differences in the way individuals screen and scope. These patterns concern what we notice, how fast we frame the choice, and when we are critical about the provided information. The indications provide a basis for reflections on practice and on how to organise EA...

  1. Significance of mammographic signs in clinically occult disease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waal, J.C. de; Steil, B.; Baltzer, J.; Vaillant, W.; Zander, J.

    1987-10-01

    The significance of various radiographic signs in 183 patients with clinically occult breast disease is described. 30.6% hat a carcinoma of the breast or a carcinoma in situ. The radiological features have varying predictive values and there is variation in the incidence of lymph node metastases. It is considered useful to classify the radiological appearances under the headings of round foci, star-shaped opacities, diffuse opacities, opacities with calcification and groups of micro-calcification. Despite the early diagnosis, 24% of patients already had lymph node metastases.

  2. Predicting Human Cooperation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J Nay

    Full Text Available The Prisoner's Dilemma has been a subject of extensive research due to its importance in understanding the ever-present tension between individual self-interest and social benefit. A strictly dominant strategy in a Prisoner's Dilemma (defection, when played by both players, is mutually harmful. Repetition of the Prisoner's Dilemma can give rise to cooperation as an equilibrium, but defection is as well, and this ambiguity is difficult to resolve. The numerous behavioral experiments investigating the Prisoner's Dilemma highlight that players often cooperate, but the level of cooperation varies significantly with the specifics of the experimental predicament. We present the first computational model of human behavior in repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games that unifies the diversity of experimental observations in a systematic and quantitatively reliable manner. Our model relies on data we integrated from many experiments, comprising 168,386 individual decisions. The model is composed of two pieces: the first predicts the first-period action using solely the structural game parameters, while the second predicts dynamic actions using both game parameters and history of play. Our model is successful not merely at fitting the data, but in predicting behavior at multiple scales in experimental designs not used for calibration, using only information about the game structure. We demonstrate the power of our approach through a simulation analysis revealing how to best promote human cooperation.

  3. Defining and determining the significance of impacts: concepts and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christensen, S.W.; Van Winkle, W.; Mattice, J.S.

    1975-01-01

    The term impact is conceptually and mathematically defined to be the difference in the state or value of an ecosystem with versus without the source of impact. Some resulting problems associated with the measurement of impacts based on comparisons of baseline and operational data are discussed briefly. The concept of a significant adverse impact on a biological system is operationally defined in terms of an adverse impact which, according to a proposed decision-tree, justifies rejection of a project or a change in its site, design, or mode of operation. A gradient of increasing difficulty in the prediction of impacts exists as the scope of the assessment is expanded to consider long-term, far-field impacts with respect to higher levels of biological organization (e.g., communities or ecosystems). The analytical methods available for predicting short-term, near-field impacts are discussed. Finally, the role of simulation modeling as an aid to professional judgment in predicting the long-term, far-field consequences of impacts is considered, and illustrated with an example. (U.S.)

  4. Changing relationships with significant others: Reflections of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Symbolic interactionism provides the framework for analysing the building of relationships between elite athletes and their significant others. In-depth interviews were conducted with elite throwers and decathlon athletes. The sample included current (n=15) and retired (n=5) student-athletes, parents (n=5), coaches (n=2) ...

  5. Mycotoxins: significance to global economics and health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mycotoxins are fungal metabolites produced my micro-fungi (molds and mildews) that have significant impacts on global economics and health. Some of these metabolites are beneficial, but most are harmful and have been associated with well-known epidemics dating back to medieval times. The terms ‘myco...

  6. Incidence and Significance of Haematemesis in Cirrhosis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1974-06-08

    Jun 8, 1974 ... veloped encephalopathy and coma. It was found that more patients fell into the latter group (50 cases) than into the group with haematemesis (with or without encephalopathy). (45 cases), but there was no significant difference in the mortality rate of the groups. s. Afr. Med. l., 48, 1155 (1974). It has for some ...

  7. Encounter Probability of Significant Wave Height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Z.; Burcharth, H. F.

    The determination of the design wave height (often given as the significant wave height) is usually based on statistical analysis of long-term extreme wave height measurement or hindcast. The result of such extreme wave height analysis is often given as the design wave height corresponding to a c...

  8. The Significance of the Nursery School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesell, Arnold

    2017-01-01

    From the standpoint of mental health and perhaps even from the standpoint of human culture, the complete realization of the educational possibilities of the preschool child is of foundational significance. Normative and comparative studies performed at a psychological clinic at Yale examining norms of development in children from one month to five…

  9. Scope and Significance of Eating Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, James E.; Eckert, Elke D.

    1987-01-01

    Describes the increasing prevalence of anorexia nervosa and bulimia in many industrialized societies, and their association with significant morbidity and mortality. Discusses the genetic risks for the development of anorexia nervosa, and treatment strategies. Of these, pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy, particularly those incorporating…

  10. Soil physicochemical properties and their significance for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Soil physicochemical properties and their significance for sustainable sugarcane production in Kesem Allaideghe plains irrigation project area, Eastern Ethiopia. ... In order to improve soil structure and water availability, addition of gypsum, plant residues and organic matter are recommended. Keywords: Soil survey ...

  11. Petrochemistry and geotectonic significance of enderbite ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Petrochemistry and geotectonic significance of enderbite-charnockite association in the Pan-African Obudu plateau, southeastern Nigeria. VU Ukaegbu, FT Beka. Abstract. No Abstract. Journal of Mining and Geology Vol. 43 (1) 2007: pp. 1-14. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ...

  12. The Historical Significance of the Universal Declaration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eide, Asbjorn

    1998-01-01

    Explains the historical significance of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Focuses on the initiative for the Declaration and its elaboration, the precursors to modern human rights, the foundation of the Declaration, the rights contained in the Universal Declaration, three modes of human rights analysis, and global governance and human…

  13. Bullying in Academe: Prevalent, Significant, and Incessant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassell, Macgorine A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the top-down perspective of bullying and mobbing of professors by analyzing why it is prevalent, significant, and incessant and then proposes a framework to produce a caring, respectful, and safe environment for professors to engage in their teaching, scholarship, and service. The author suggests that the failure of…

  14. Cystic echinococcosis: prevalence and economic significance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A cross-sectional study was conducted from November 2015 to April 2016 at ELFORA export abattoir to determine the prevalence, cyst viability, organ distribution and economic significance of small ruminant cystic echinococcosis. A total of 850 small ruminants (400 sheep and 450 goats), were examined for the presence of ...

  15. Significance of Literature in Foreign Language Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babaee, Ruzbeh; Yahya, Wan Roselezam Bt Wan

    2014-01-01

    This research aims to consider literature as a significant tool for teaching fundamental language skills including speaking, listening, reading and writing. Reasons for the use of literature in language classrooms and major factors for choosing appropriate kinds of literary texts in such classes should be highlighted in order to make readers aware…

  16. 32 CFR 651.39 - Significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... existing pollution standards; cause water, air, noise, soil, or underground pollution; impair visibility... Defense Department of Defense (Continued) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY (CONTINUED) ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF ARMY ACTIONS (AR 200-2) Environmental Assessment § 651.39 Significance. (a) If the...

  17. [Current clinical significance of anaerobic bacteremia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jirsa, Roman; Marešová, Veronika; Brož, Zdeněk

    2010-10-01

    to estimate tje current clinical significance of anaerobic bacteremia in a group of Czech hospitals. this retrospective analysis comprised 8 444 anaerobic blood cultures in patients admitted to four Czech hospitals between 2004 and 2007. in 16 patients, blood cultures yielded significant anaerobic bacteria. Thus, anaerobic bacteremia accounted for less than 2 % of clinically significant bacteremia. Four patients (18 %) died but none of the deaths could be clearly attributable to anaerobic bacteria in the bloodstream. The most common comorbidities predisposing to anaerobic bacteremia and the most frequent sources of infection were similar to those reported by other authors. The majority of anaerobic bacteremia cases were due to gram-negative bacteria, followed by Clostridium perfringens and, surprisingly, Eubacterium spp. (particularly Eubacterium lentum). anaerobic bacteremia remains rare. The comparison of our data with those by other authors suggests that (despite the reported high mortality) the actual clinical significance of anaerobic bacteremia is rather controversial and that the anaerobic bacteremia might not correspond to more serious pathogenic role of the anaerobic bacteria as the source of infection.

  18. Discovering the Significance of Scientific Design Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pries-Heje, Jan; Baskerville, Richard

    This paper aims at discussing and defining what it is that makes design science research significant. First it reviews the values and processes of old science and how this attacks complexity through analysis. It then shows how new science attacks complexity through synthesis. Then the paper argue...

  19. Significance of mineralogy in soil mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojana Dolinar

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available The research of consistency limits according to Atterberg is of key importance in soil mechanics because it determines, in a simple way, results of interactions between solid and liquid phases in soils, and thus provides possibility to classify them in groups withsimilar mechanic properties. In most cases, the results of these investigations provide a good basis for predicting other properties such as deformability, expansion, hydraulic conductivity and strength of soils. This proves that basis factors influencing the valuesof consistency limits and other mechanic properties are the same. It is known that the values of consistency limits primarily depend on the type and quantity of clay minerals in soils. The article focuses on experimental evidence of dependence between the quantityof water at the liquid limit for soils and type, portion and specific surface of clay grains.Experiments were performed with monomineral soils, their mixtures and composed samples of clay- and non-clay components. It was established that in parallel orientation of clay particles the quantity of water between grains at liquid limit is dependent on their external specific surface.

  20. Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Theresa F.

    In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

  1. Significant incidents in nuclear fuel cycle facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-03-01

    In contrast to nuclear power plants, events in nuclear fuel cycle facilities are not well documented. The INES database covers all the nuclear fuel cycle facilities; however, it was developed in the early 1990s and does not contain information on events prior to that. The purpose of the present report is to collect significant events and analyze them in order to give a safety related overview of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Significant incidents were selected using the following criteria: release of radioactive material or exposure to radiation; degradation of items important to safety; and deficiencies in design, quality assurance, etc. which include criticality incidents, fire, explosion, radioactive release and contamination. This report includes an explanation, where possible, of root causes, lessons learned and action taken. 4 refs, 4 tabs.

  2. Significant incidents in nuclear fuel cycle facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-03-01

    In contrast to nuclear power plants, events in nuclear fuel cycle facilities are not well documented. The INES database covers all the nuclear fuel cycle facilities; however, it was developed in the early 1990s and does not contain information on events prior to that. The purpose of the present report is to collect significant events and analyze them in order to give a safety related overview of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Significant incidents were selected using the following criteria: release of radioactive material or exposure to radiation; degradation of items important to safety; and deficiencies in design, quality assurance, etc. which include criticality incidents, fire, explosion, radioactive release and contamination. This report includes an explanation, where possible, of root causes, lessons learned and action taken. 4 refs, 4 tabs

  3. Respiratory neuroplasticity - Overview, significance and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, David D; Mitchell, Gordon S

    2017-01-01

    Neuroplasticity is an important property of the neural system controlling breathing. However, our appreciation for its importance is still relatively new, and we have much to learn concerning different forms of plasticity, their underlying mechanisms, and their biological and clinical significance. In this brief review, we discuss several well-studied models of respiratory plasticity, including plasticity initiated by inactivity in the respiratory system, intermittent and sustained hypoxia, and traumatic injury to the spinal cord. Other aspects of respiratory plasticity are considered in other contributions to this special edition of Experimental Neurology on respiratory plasticity. Finally, we conclude with discussions concerning the biological and clinical significance of respiratory motor plasticity, and areas in need of future research effort. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. Dual purpose or not? The significant factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bak, W.; Roland, V.

    1999-01-01

    The development of spent fuel storage systems requires consideration of many factors in making design decisions. A significant issue affecting the design is the need to incorporate transportability of the canister or cask system design, which results in major changes to the storage system design. This paper presents a review of the significant factors affecting storage system design to incorporate transportation requirements and looks at the trends in both the United States and Europe where Transnucleaire and its US affiliated companies Transnuclear Inc., Transnuclear West and PacTec are active. A discussion is also presented relative to the pros and cons of whether the spent fuel storage system vendor should anticipate these transportation needs in the design of their systems. (author)

  5. Cross wavelet analysis: significance testing and pitfalls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Maraun

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a detailed evaluation of cross wavelet analysis of bivariate time series. We develop a statistical test for zero wavelet coherency based on Monte Carlo simulations. If at least one of the two processes considered is Gaussian white noise, an approximative formula for the critical value can be utilized. In a second part, typical pitfalls of wavelet cross spectra and wavelet coherency are discussed. The wavelet cross spectrum appears to be not suitable for significance testing the interrelation between two processes. Instead, one should rather apply wavelet coherency. Furthermore we investigate problems due to multiple testing. Based on these results, we show that coherency between ENSO and NAO is an artefact for most of the time from 1900 to 1995. However, during a distinct period from around 1920 to 1940, significant coherency between the two phenomena occurs.

  6. Significance and radioimmunoassay of gastric inhibitory polypeptide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Ping; Zeng Minde; Yuan Jimin

    1995-01-01

    We have established the GIP Radioimmunoassay which has high sensitivity and specificity by labelling with iodogen and purified with HPLC. Using this method, the plasma GIP level was measured in 64 cases of which there are 10 normal individuals, 25 cases of diabetes and 29 cases of liver cirrhosis . The results showed that the plasma GIP level was significantly increased in patients with liver cirrhosis and correlated to degree of glucose tolerance damage

  7. Prevalence of significant bacteriuria among symptomatic and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 16.0 (SPSS, Inc., Chicago, Ill). Results: A total of 100 consenting participants were recruited into the study. The mean age was: 23.42 ± 8.31 years and a range of 14‑50 years. Only 9% (9/100) had significant bacteriuria while 44.4% (4/9) ...

  8. Impact significance determination-Designing an approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrence, David P.

    2007-01-01

    The question of how best to go about determining the significance of impacts has, to date, only been addressed in a partial and preliminary way. The assumption tends to be made that it is either only necessary to provide explicit, justified reasons for a judgment about significance and/or to explicitly apply a prescribed procedure-a procedure usually involving the staged application of thresholds and/or criteria. The detailed attributes, strengths and limitations of such approaches and possible alternative approaches have yet to be explored systematically. This article addresses these deficiencies by analyzing the characteristics, specific methods and positive and negative tendencies of three general impact significance determination approaches-the technical approach, the collaborative approach and the reasoned argumentation approach. A range of potential composite approaches are also described. With an enhanced understanding of these approaches, together with potential combinations, EIA practitioners and other EIA participants can be in a better position to select an approach appropriate to their needs, to reinforce the positive tendencies and offset the negative tendencies of the selected approach and to combine the best qualities of more than one approach

  9. Significance of postoperative irradiation for breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murai, Nobuko; Ogami, Koji; Nishikawa, Kiyoshi; Koga, Kenji; Waki, Norio; Higashi, Hidefumi; Hayashi, Asami; Shibata, Koichiro; Watanabe, Katsuji

    1986-01-01

    From 1978 through 1983, 27 patients were treated with surgery followed by irradiation (irradiated group) and 29 with surery alone (non-irradiated group). In the irradiated group, 10 had stage II and 17 stage III; in the non-irradiated group, 25 had stage II and 4 stage III. The most common histology was medullary tubular carcinoma (MTC). There was no significant difference in survivals at 3 years and 5 years between the groups. Similarly, no significant difference was seen among stage II patients. Patients with MTC tended to have worse survivals in the irradiated group than in the non-irradiated group, with no statistically significant difference. Among stage II patients, no major differences in local recurrence were seen between the groups; the incidence of distant metastases tended to be high in the irradiated group. The incidence of both local recurrence and distant metastases for stage III patients showed a tendency to be higher in the irradiated group than in the non-irradiated group. The results indicated no apparent benifit of postoperative irradiation for breast cancer. A randomized clinical trial is needed for the evaluation of postoperative irradiation for breast cancer. (Namekawa, K.)

  10. Clinical significance of dental root canal microflora.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, B P; Lilley, J D; Drucker, D B

    1996-01-01

    Previous work by this group has shown that a significant association exists between pain and the presence of either Prevotella or Peptostreptococcus spp. in dental root canals. The aim of this study was to examine a more extensive series of canals microbiologically, to determine whether any other particular endodontic symptoms or clinical signs showed specific associations with individual bacterial species. Seventy root canals were examined microbiologically and clinical data collected to investigate in detail such associations. Of the canals studied, 37 were associated with pain, 49 with tenderness to percussion, 23 with swelling, six with purulent exudate and 57 presented with wet root canals. Anaerobes were isolated from 70.3% of painful canals and from 29.7% of pain-free canals. Significant associations were found between (a) pain and either Prevotella spp. or peptostreptococci, both with P spp. (P Eubacterium spp. (P spp. or Pstr. micros, both with P spp. (each P Eubacterium, Peptostreptococcus, Prevotella or Propionibacterium (each P < 0.05). It was concluded that several different endodontic clinical signs and symptoms are significantly associated with specific bacterial species.

  11. Assessing the clinical significance of tumor markers in common neoplasms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beketic-Oreskovic, Lidija; Maric, Petra; Ozretic, Petar; Oreskovic, Darko; Ajdukovic, Mia; Levanat, Sonja

    2012-06-01

    The term tumor markers include a spectrum of molecules and substances with widely divergent characteristics whose presence in the significant amount can be related to the malignant disease. An ideal tumor marker should have high specificity and sensitivity, which would allow its use in early diagnosis and prognosis of malignant disease, as well as in prediction of therapeutic response and follow-up of the patients. Numerous biochemical entities have emerged as potentially valuable tumor markers so far, but only few markers showed to be of considerable clinical reliability and have been accepted into standard clinical practice. Recent development of genomics and proteomics has enabled the examination of many new potential tumor markers. Scientific studies on discovery, development, and application of tumor markers have been proceeding quite rapidly providing great opportunities for improving the management of cancer patients. This review is focusing on the clinical usefulness of various tumor markers already in clinical practice as well as certain potential markers, giving a brief description of their prognostic and predictive significance in most common malignancies.

  12. Weight comments by family and significant others in young adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenberg, Marla E; Berge, Jerica M; Fulkerson, Jayne A; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

    2011-01-01

    Weight teasing is common among adolescents, but less is known about the continuation of this experience during young adulthood. The present study uses survey data from a diverse sample of 2287 young adults, who participated in a 10-year longitudinal study of weight-related issues to examine hurtful weight comments by family members or a significant other. Among young adults, 35.9% of females and 22.8% of males reported receiving hurtful weight-related comments by family members, and 21.2% of females and 23.8% of males with a significant other had received hurtful weight-related comments from this source. Hispanic and Asian young adults and overweight/obese young adults were more likely to report receiving comments than those in other groups. Weight teasing during adolescence predicted hurtful weight-related comments in young adulthood, with some differences by gender. Findings suggest that hurtful weight talk continues into young adulthood and is predicted by earlier weight teasing experiences. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Clinical significance of lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Jing-Yu; Liang, Han

    2014-01-01

    Gastric cancer, one of the most common malignancies in the world, frequently reveals lymph node, peritoneum, and liver metastases. Most of gastric cancer patients present with lymph node metastasis when they were initially diagnosed or underwent surgical resection, which results in poor prognosis. Both the depth of tumor invasion and lymph node involvement are considered as the most important prognostic predictors of gastric cancer. Although extended lymphadenectomy was not considered a survival benefit procedure and was reported to be associated with high mortality and morbidity in two randomized controlled European trials, it showed significant superiority in terms of lower locoregional recurrence and disease related deaths compared to limited lymphadenectomy in a 15-year follow-up study. Almost all clinical investigators have reached a consensus that the predictive efficiency of the number of metastatic lymph nodes is far better than the extent of lymph node metastasis for the prognosis of gastric cancer worldwide, but other nodal metastatic classifications of gastric cancer have been proposed as alternatives to the number of metastatic lymph nodes for improving the predictive efficiency for patient prognosis. It is still controversial over whether the ratio between metastatic and examined lymph nodes is superior to the number of metastatic lymph nodes in prognostic evaluation of gastric cancer. Besides, the negative lymph node count has been increasingly recognized to be an important factor significantly associated with prognosis of gastric cancer. PMID:24744586

  14. Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Karen L; Veile, Amanda; Otárola-Castillo, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children's growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children's monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1) as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2) competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3) however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children's growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children's growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children's growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance.

  15. Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen L Kramer

    Full Text Available Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children's growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children's monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1 as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2 competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3 however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children's growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children's growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children's growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance.

  16. Assessing the significance of Heidegger's Black Notebooks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Malpas

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The publication of Heidegger's Black Notebooks (Schwarze Hefte has provoked a storm of controversy. Much of this has centred on the pro-Nazi and anti-Semitic comments the volumes contain. But these aspects of the Notebooks are perhaps the least surprising and important. This essay offers a summary overview of the issues to which the Notebooks give rise, at the same time as it also aims to provide a preliminary assessment of their overall significance, especially in relation to what they show about the nature and development of Heidegger's thinking from the early 1930s to the late 1940s.

  17. Os odontoideum: a significant radiographic finding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choit, Rachel L.; Reilly, Christopher W.; Jamieson, Douglas H.

    2005-01-01

    Os odontoideum can lead to instability of the atlantoaxial joint and places the spinal cord at significant risk for acute catastrophic events after minor trauma or chronic neurological change. We present two cases of os odontoideum in pediatric patients that were not appreciated at earlier remote imaging but were, in retrospect, detectable. One patient presented with an acute spinal cord injury. Incorporating assessment of dens integrity into the evaluation algorithm for all pediatric cervical spine studies should lead to early detection of os odontoideum lesions and allow referral to appropriate clinical spinal services for evaluation, surveillance and possible surgery to prevent future complications. (orig.)

  18. Detecting significant changes in protein abundance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Kammers

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We review and demonstrate how an empirical Bayes method, shrinking a protein's sample variance towards a pooled estimate, leads to far more powerful and stable inference to detect significant changes in protein abundance compared to ordinary t-tests. Using examples from isobaric mass labelled proteomic experiments we show how to analyze data from multiple experiments simultaneously, and discuss the effects of missing data on the inference. We also present easy to use open source software for normalization of mass spectrometry data and inference based on moderated test statistics.

  19. Perspectives on Gandhi’s Significance Today

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Simpson

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Gandhi’s example has inspired countless political struggles worldwide over the past century. We might then ask how his thought has been transferred and translated when taken out of the particular historical and geographic context in which he lived. How have Gandhi’s ideas been changed or altered when adopted in different contexts? Which aspects of Gandhi’s thinking remain most relevant to struggles for social and environmental justice today? These are just a few of the questions that were discussed at the “Perspectives on Gandhi’s Significance Workshop” hosted by Reed College in Portland Oregon (USA, on April 16th, 2016.

  20. Sucralfate significantly reduces ciprofloxacin concentrations in serum.

    OpenAIRE

    Garrelts, J C; Godley, P J; Peterie, J D; Gerlach, E H; Yakshe, C C

    1990-01-01

    The effect of sucralfate on the bioavailability of ciprofloxacin was evaluated in eight healthy subjects utilizing a randomized, crossover design. The area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 12 h was reduced from 8.8 to 1.1 micrograms.h/ml by sucralfate (P less than 0.005). Similarly, the maximum concentration of ciprofloxacin in serum was reduced from 2.0 to 0.2 micrograms/ml (P less than 0.005). We conclude that concurrent ingestion of sucralfate significantly reduces the concentr...

  1. Significant events caused by extraneous acts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verlaeken, J.

    1987-01-01

    The operating experience feedback system of VINCOTTE, called ARIANE, consists, among others, of preparing synthesis reports on specific safety concerns. A recent report deals with significant events caused by extranous acts. Events attributable to human error are numerous. Confusion errors have already been analysed in several publications (NES IRS 664 etc.). However, are described here some ten incidents where extranous acts occurred: ZION 2 (September 76), OYSTER CREEK (May 79), PALISADES (January 81), CATAWBA (August 85), etc. The contributing factors for these unfortunate initiatives are explained; several resort to psychological influences. Corrective actions are discussed, and some general lessons are drawn. (author)

  2. Medical significance of the essential biological metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davies, I.J.T.

    1977-01-01

    The medical significance of the essential biological metals such as zinc, copper and molybdenum as well as their nutritional and biochemical importance are reviewed. The following topics are treated: biochemical actions of the essential biological metals; the concept of essentiality; the development of knowledge about the essential biological metals. Data are given on zinc deficiency and hypogonadismi in humans, zinc and acrodermatitis enterophatica, zinc and the skin, zinc in diabetes mellitus, zinc and insulin, zinc and the liver; copper functions, copper deficiency - ''sway back'' in sheep, copper and haemopoiesis, copper and the function of blood vessels; molybdenum and dental caries in humans, oesophageal carcinoma and molybdenum deficiency in humans. (T.G.)

  3. Non-destructive testing: significant facts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espejo, Hector; Ruch, Marta C.

    2006-01-01

    In the last fifty years different organisations, both public and private, have been assigned to the mission of introducing into the country the most relevant aspects of the modern technological discipline 'Non Destructive Testing' (NDT) through a manifold of activities, such as training and education, research, development, technical assistance and services, personnel qualification/certification and standardisation. A review is given of the significant facts in this process, in which the Argentine Atomic Energy Commission, CNEA, played a leading part, a balance of the accomplishments is made and a forecast of the future of the activity is sketched. (author) [es

  4. Os odontoideum: a significant radiographic finding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choit, Rachel L.; Reilly, Christopher W. [BC Children' s Hospital, Department of Orthopaedics, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Jamieson, Douglas H. [BC Children' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Vancouver (Canada)

    2005-08-01

    Os odontoideum can lead to instability of the atlantoaxial joint and places the spinal cord at significant risk for acute catastrophic events after minor trauma or chronic neurological change. We present two cases of os odontoideum in pediatric patients that were not appreciated at earlier remote imaging but were, in retrospect, detectable. One patient presented with an acute spinal cord injury. Incorporating assessment of dens integrity into the evaluation algorithm for all pediatric cervical spine studies should lead to early detection of os odontoideum lesions and allow referral to appropriate clinical spinal services for evaluation, surveillance and possible surgery to prevent future complications. (orig.)

  5. Significant exposures to isoeugenol derivaties in perfumes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rastogi, Suresh Chandra; Johansen, Jeanne Duus

    2008-01-01

    in perfumes/aftershaves. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 29 international brand perfumes/aftershaves were analysed for the target fragrance ingredient by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. All samples were analysed in duplicate at detection levels of 1-5 p.p.m. RESULTS: 16 products (55%) contained isoeugenol...... was not detected in any of the investigated products. CONCLUSIONS: Isoeugenyl acetate is present in perfumes/aftershaves, in some products in significant amounts. This may lead to elicitation of contact allergy in isoeugenol-sensitized individuals and may contribute to unchanged levels of isoeugenol sensitization....

  6. pancreatic steatosis: diagnosis and clinical significance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Daðdeviren

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Pancreatic steatosis (PS, with increased use of abdominal imaging in recent years generally appears as incidental. But it is a condition that is often overlooked. The reason for this is not yet fully demonstrated the clinical significance of PS while. However, in recent years, there are some studies conducted on the relationship with ps and other disease such as diabetes, metabolic syndrome, acute and chronic pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer. In this review, the etiology, diagnosis, treatment and clinical characteristics of ps were evaluated in the light of recent literature and current approaches. [J Contemp Med 2017; 7(1.000: 107-112

  7. Significance of abolishing British National Oil Corporation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mabro, R

    1985-04-01

    The decision to abolish British National Oil Corporation has greater significance than any commentator, so far, has cared to admit. Mr. Mabro says the Government has done much more than get rid of an institution it had previously weakened and emasculated; in effect, it had abdicated its responsibilities for the pricing of North Sea oil. He further observes that these moves may be consistent with the tenets of a simplistic free-market ideology: they betray, however, a lack of understanding of the economics of oil, and of the UK economic interest in oil.

  8. Sonographic ally Detected Architectural Distortion: Clinical Significance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Shin Kee; Seo, Bo Kyoung; Yi, Ann; Cha, Sang Hoon; Kim, Baek Hyun; Cho, Kyu Ran; Kim, Young Sik; Son, Gil Soo; Kim, Young Soo; Kim, Hee Young [Korea University Ansan Hospital, Ansan (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-12-15

    Architectural distortion is a suspicious abnormality for the diagnosis of breast cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of sonographic ally detected architectural distortion. From January 2006 to June 2008, 20 patients were identified who had sonographic ally detected architectural distortions without a history of trauma or surgery and abnormal mammographic findings related to an architectural distortion. All of the lesions were pathologically verified. We evaluated the clinical and pathological findings and then assessed the clinical significance of the sonographic ally detected architectural distortions. Based on the clinical findings, one (5%) of the 20 patients had a palpable lump and the remaining 19 patients had no symptoms. No patient had a family history of breast cancer. Based on the pathological findings, three (15%) patients had malignancies. The malignant lesions included invasive ductal carcinomas (n = 2) and ductal carcinoma in situ (n = 1). Four (20%) patients had high-risk lesions: atypical ductal hyperplasia (n = 3) and lobular carcinoma in situ (n = 1). The remaining 13 (65%) patients had benign lesions, however, seven (35%) out of 13 patients had mild-risk lesions (three intraductal papillomas, three moderate or florid epithelial hyperplasia and one sclerosing adenosis). Of the sonographic ally detected architectural distortions, 35% were breast cancers or high-risk lesions and 35% were mild-risk lesions. Thus, a biopsy might be needed for an architectural distortion without an associated mass as depicted on breast ultrasound, even though the mammographic findings are normal

  9. Could patients' coughing have communicative significance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Julia V

    2008-01-01

    Medical discourse positions patients with coughs and colds negatively, so consulting health services with 'minor' respiratory illness is therefore more accountable than for other medical problems. Patients face dilemmas since they must persuade doctors of the doctorability of their illness without being seen as hypochondriacal, and they risk losing face if doctors decide that there is nothing much wrong. It is known that the placement of non-lexical features of talk such as laughing or crying can have interactional meaning. Using a data set of video-recorded doctor-patient cough and cold consultations, this study explores whether patients' coughing could have communicative significance. The study is a qualitative analysis of 33 consultations drawing on a constructionist, sociolinguistic analytic approach. Coughing is co-ordinated with talk rather than occurring randomly. Coughing helps patients to demonstrate the doctorability of their symptoms and to legitimize their claims for medical attention. Coughing is also associated with resistance to 'no problem' diagnoses, resulting in changes in the trajectory of talk (for example, soliciting more explanation from doctors and/or re-negotiation of doctors' investigation or treatment plans). Coughing is undoubtedly a manifestation of respiratory illness, but also has communicative significance in consultations for coughs and colds.

  10. Significance and popularity in music production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monechi, Bernardo; Gravino, Pietro; Servedio, Vito D. P.; Tria, Francesca; Loreto, Vittorio

    2017-07-01

    Creative industries constantly strive for fame and popularity. Though highly desirable, popularity is not the only achievement artistic creations might ever acquire. Leaving a longstanding mark in the global production and influencing future works is an even more important achievement, usually acknowledged by experts and scholars. `Significant' or `influential' works are not always well known to the public or have sometimes been long forgotten by the vast majority. In this paper, we focus on the duality between what is successful and what is significant in the musical context. To this end, we consider a user-generated set of tags collected through an online music platform, whose evolving co-occurrence network mirrors the growing conceptual space underlying music production. We define a set of general metrics aiming at characterizing music albums throughout history, and their relationships with the overall musical production. We show how these metrics allow to classify albums according to their current popularity or their belonging to expert-made lists of important albums. In this way, we provide the scientific community and the public at large with quantitative tools to tell apart popular albums from culturally or aesthetically relevant artworks. The generality of the methodology presented here lends itself to be used in all those fields where innovation and creativity are in play.

  11. Sonographic ally Detected Architectural Distortion: Clinical Significance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Shin Kee; Seo, Bo Kyoung; Yi, Ann; Cha, Sang Hoon; Kim, Baek Hyun; Cho, Kyu Ran; Kim, Young Sik; Son, Gil Soo; Kim, Young Soo; Kim, Hee Young

    2008-01-01

    Architectural distortion is a suspicious abnormality for the diagnosis of breast cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of sonographic ally detected architectural distortion. From January 2006 to June 2008, 20 patients were identified who had sonographic ally detected architectural distortions without a history of trauma or surgery and abnormal mammographic findings related to an architectural distortion. All of the lesions were pathologically verified. We evaluated the clinical and pathological findings and then assessed the clinical significance of the sonographic ally detected architectural distortions. Based on the clinical findings, one (5%) of the 20 patients had a palpable lump and the remaining 19 patients had no symptoms. No patient had a family history of breast cancer. Based on the pathological findings, three (15%) patients had malignancies. The malignant lesions included invasive ductal carcinomas (n = 2) and ductal carcinoma in situ (n = 1). Four (20%) patients had high-risk lesions: atypical ductal hyperplasia (n = 3) and lobular carcinoma in situ (n = 1). The remaining 13 (65%) patients had benign lesions, however, seven (35%) out of 13 patients had mild-risk lesions (three intraductal papillomas, three moderate or florid epithelial hyperplasia and one sclerosing adenosis). Of the sonographic ally detected architectural distortions, 35% were breast cancers or high-risk lesions and 35% were mild-risk lesions. Thus, a biopsy might be needed for an architectural distortion without an associated mass as depicted on breast ultrasound, even though the mammographic findings are normal

  12. Significance and popularity in music production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monechi, Bernardo; Gravino, Pietro; Servedio, Vito D P; Tria, Francesca; Loreto, Vittorio

    2017-07-01

    Creative industries constantly strive for fame and popularity. Though highly desirable, popularity is not the only achievement artistic creations might ever acquire. Leaving a longstanding mark in the global production and influencing future works is an even more important achievement, usually acknowledged by experts and scholars. 'Significant' or 'influential' works are not always well known to the public or have sometimes been long forgotten by the vast majority. In this paper, we focus on the duality between what is successful and what is significant in the musical context. To this end, we consider a user-generated set of tags collected through an online music platform, whose evolving co-occurrence network mirrors the growing conceptual space underlying music production. We define a set of general metrics aiming at characterizing music albums throughout history, and their relationships with the overall musical production. We show how these metrics allow to classify albums according to their current popularity or their belonging to expert-made lists of important albums. In this way, we provide the scientific community and the public at large with quantitative tools to tell apart popular albums from culturally or aesthetically relevant artworks. The generality of the methodology presented here lends itself to be used in all those fields where innovation and creativity are in play.

  13. Origin and significance of defects in welds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundin, C.D.

    1984-01-01

    In the past 10 to 15 years significant advances have taken place in the understanding of the origin and nature of weld discontinuities. The furthering of the knowledge of hot cracking, cold cracking, lamellar tearing and porosity formation is due to the development and utilization of sophisticated techniques for microscopy and microanalysis and the concerted efforts of many researchers in the U.S. and abroad. Concurrent with the progress toward better definition of the metallurgical mechanisms for discontinuity formation, the development of the fracture mechanics approach for the assessment of the significance of the discontinuities was brought into focus. It is the marriage of the metallurgical understanding of formation and the mechanics assessment of relevance that permits discontinuities to be treated with a new degree of sophistication. The many types of cracking and porosity formation were the subjects of numerous studies in the intervening years. This presentation will treat the various types of weld discontinuities which have their origin closely related to a metallurgical mechanism. Emphasis will be placed on hot cracking, and porosity formation with information presented on cold cracking, reheat cracking and lamellar tearing. The employment of the newer metallurgical tools will be discussed in terms of their utilization in determining the cause of discontinuity formation

  14. Trading network predicts stock price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-16

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  15. Arcuate foramen and its clinical significance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cakmark, O.; Gurdal, E.; Cavdar, S.; Ekinci, G.; Yildiz, E.

    2005-01-01

    The present study determines the degree of ossification of the posterior atlanto-occipital membrane in dry bone, plane lateral cervical spine radiographs and computer tomography (CT). The average length, width and the area of the arcuate foramen were measured on dry bone and on cervical CT. Further, age, gender and complaints of the patients of shoulder and arm pain, neck pain, headache, vertigo, and lacrimation in relation to the presence of bony complete or incomplete arcuate foramen were evaluated. From February 2004 to January 2005 60 dry atlases were obtained from the Anatomy Department, University of Marmara, Istanbul, Turkey and 416 lateral cervical spine radiographs were obtained from the Radiology department for neurological and orthopedic evaluations. Each complete arcuate foramen was calculated with the aid of Clemex Vision PE demo version computer program. Among the 60 dry atlases examined 7 (11.7%) had complete and 2 (3.3 %) had incomplete bony bridge formation. Of the 416 plane lateral cervical spine radiographs examined, 30 (7.2%) had complete and 26 (6.25%) had incomplete bony bridge formation. Of the 30 complete arcuate foramen 24 (80%) were females and 6 (20%) were males. The frequency of having a complete arcuate foramen in females was 8.45%, and in males it was 4.55%. Further, of the 26 incomplete arcuate foramen 20 (76.9%) were females and 6 (23.1%) were males. The frequency of having an incomplete arcuate foramen in females was 7%, and in males was 4.55%. The statistical evaluations showed that patients with complete arcuate foramen had significant complaints of shoulder-arm pain (p=0.0072), neck pain (p=0.0072) and vertigo (p=0.0598) compared to patients with incomplete arcuate foramen. The patients with complete arcuate foramen had a headache ratio of 12:30 and this ratio was 2:26 in patients with incomplete arcuate foramen and the difference between complete and incomplete arcuate foramen was statistically significant (p=0.0062). Further

  16. Regional and global significance of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schilling, H.D.

    1995-01-01

    Measures to combat poverty and improve the standard of living in countries of the Third World will inevitably boost global demand for energy, and energy conservation measures will not be able to offset this increase. Nuclear energy will regain significance in the framework of approaches adopted to resolve the energy problem, which primarily is an ecologic problem created by an extremely large flow of materials. The extraordinarily high energy density of nuclear fuels can contribute to markedly reduce the flow of materials; and at that, electric energy is an efficient substitute for primary energy forms. Thus nuclear electricity generation is of double benefit to the ecology. Engineering goals in nuclear technology thus gain a service aspect, with progress in power plant engineering and design aiming not only at enhanced engineered safety, but also at regaining public acceptance of and confidence in nuclear power plant technology. (orig./UA) [de

  17. Response to a spill of national significance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, D.S.; Pond, R.; Johnson, M.H.

    1993-01-01

    Responding to a spill of national significance (SONS), such as the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill, requires an augmenting organization to support the local response organization. The US Coast Guard has developed SONS protocol to be better prepared to respond to these infrequent catastrophic spills. A flag-level Coast Guard officer assumes the role of national incident commander (NIC) and federal on-scene coordinator (OSC), and is supported by a national incident task force (NITF). The major role of the NITF is to develop a national response strategy, acquire response resources and allocate them efficiently, and effectively deal with many peripheral national issues. Unified command concepts have been incorporated into the NITF and its primary organizational elements. In addition, frequent training and exercising is essential to keep the SONS protocol's preparedness at an acceptable level

  18. The significance of vector magnetic field measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagyard, M. J.

    1990-01-01

    Observations of four flaring solar active regions, obtained during 1980-1986 with the NASA Marshall vector magnetograph (Hagyard et al., 1982 and 1985), are presented graphically and characterized in detail, with reference to nearly simultaneous Big Bear Solar Observatory and USAF ASW H-alpha images. It is shown that the flares occurred where local photospheric magnetic fields differed most from the potential field, with initial brightening on either side of a magnetic-neutral line near the point of maximum angular shear (rather than that of maximum magnetic-field strength, typically 1 kG or greater). Particular emphasis is placed on the fact that these significant nonpotential features were detected only by measuring all three components of the vector magnetic field.

  19. Global warming: the significance of methane

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessus, B.; Le Treut, H.; Laponche, B.

    2008-01-01

    the concept of Global Warming Potential (GWP) indicates the relative contribution to global warming over a given period (for example 100 years) of a pulse emission at the start of the period of 1 kg of a specific greenhouse gas (GHG) in comparison to the contribution, over the same period, of an emission of 1 kg of CO 2 . The GWPs calculated for different time intervals take into account the differences in atmospheric lifetimes of the different GHGs. Using the '100-year GWP' to measure non CO 2 GHG emissions is not well suited to the case of permanent or long lifetime measures whose effectiveness is to be assessed at a given time horizon. In this context, it contributes to significantly playing down the importance of reducing emissions of GHGs with short atmospheric lifetimes. Thus, for example, methane which is not emitted over the period 2020- 2100 as a result of a landfill site being closed in 2020 will have an impact (as opposed to if the site remained in operation) that would be far greater towards 2100 compared to a CO 2 emission source that has also been stopped permanently and whose climate impact is measured in an equivalent manner. Using the GWP is only appropriate if applied year after year to time horizons considered to be of concern or decisive by climate studies, thus in particular 2050, 2100 and 2150. This is all the more significant as climate experts' current concerns lead them not only to advocate long-term stabilisation of GHG concentrations but also to avoid as far as possible intermediate excess of these concentrations over the coming century. Finally, it is noted that CH 4 prevention policies implemented in the short term may continue to have a long-term impact greater than merely taking into account the current GWP would imply. To more or less ignore the impact of CH 4 as it is unsuitable for accounting purposes affects the exclusive character of the link that may exist between the issue of GHGs and that of energy. Furthermore, if the

  20. Bayesian approaches for detecting significant deterioration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roed, Willy; Aven, Terje

    2009-01-01

    Risk indicators can provide useful input to risk management processes and are given increased attention in the Norwegian petroleum industry. Examples include indicators expressing the proportion of test failures of safety and barrier systems. Such indicators give valuable information about the performance of the systems and provide a basis for trend evaluations. Early warning of a possible deterioration is essential due to the importance of the systems in focus, but what should be the basis for the warning criterion? This paper presents and discusses several Bayesian approaches for the establishment of a warning criterion to disclose significant deterioration. The Norwegian petroleum industry is the starting point for this paper, but the study is relevant for other application areas as well

  1. Swiss solar power statistics 2007 - Significant expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hostettler, T.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents and discusses the 2007 statistics for solar power in Switzerland. A significant number of new installations is noted as is the high production figures from newer installations. The basics behind the compilation of the Swiss solar power statistics are briefly reviewed and an overview for the period 1989 to 2007 is presented which includes figures on the number of photovoltaic plant in service and installed peak power. Typical production figures in kilowatt-hours (kWh) per installed kilowatt-peak power (kWp) are presented and discussed for installations of various sizes. Increased production after inverter replacement in older installations is noted. Finally, the general political situation in Switzerland as far as solar power is concerned are briefly discussed as are international developments.

  2. THRESHOLD OF SIGNIFICANCE IN STRESS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena RUSE

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Stress management is the individual's ability to handle any situation, external conditions, to match the demands of the external environment. The researchers revealed several stages in the stress response. A first phase was called ‘‘alert reaction'' or ‘‘immediate reaction to stress‘‘, phase in which there are physiological modifications and manifestations that occur under psychological aspect. Adaptation phase is the phase in which the reactions from the first phase diminishes or disappears. Exhaustion phase is related to the diversity of stress factors and time and may exceed the resources of the human body to adapt. Influencing factors may be: limited, cognitive, perceptual, and a priori. But there is a threshold of significance in stress management. Once the reaction to external stimuli occurs, awareness is needed. The capability effect occurs, any side effect goes away and comes out the ''I AM'' effect.

  3. The insignificance of statistical significance testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Douglas H.

    1999-01-01

    Despite their use in scientific journals such as The Journal of Wildlife Management, statistical hypothesis tests add very little value to the products of research. Indeed, they frequently confuse the interpretation of data. This paper describes how statistical hypothesis tests are often viewed, and then contrasts that interpretation with the correct one. I discuss the arbitrariness of P-values, conclusions that the null hypothesis is true, power analysis, and distinctions between statistical and biological significance. Statistical hypothesis testing, in which the null hypothesis about the properties of a population is almost always known a priori to be false, is contrasted with scientific hypothesis testing, which examines a credible null hypothesis about phenomena in nature. More meaningful alternatives are briefly outlined, including estimation and confidence intervals for determining the importance of factors, decision theory for guiding actions in the face of uncertainty, and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and other statistical practices.

  4. Significance and potential benefits of the CTBT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, M.

    1999-01-01

    This presentation is based on the Treaty stipulation on international cooperation: 'The States parties undertake to promote cooperation among themselves to facilitate and participate in the fullest possible exchange relating to technologies used in the verification of the Non-proliferation Treaty in order to enable States to strengthen national implementation of verification measures; and to enable States to benefit from the application of such technologies for peaceful purposes'. Political significance of the Treaty and the potential benefits of participating in the CTBT regime are exposed. It is concluded that international cooperation under the CTBT regime is an element in broadening Treaty support and participation, thereby contributing to an early establishment and the efficient operation of the Treaty verification regime. The PTS will assist the States Signatories to facilitate and promote cooperation among themselves in the fullest exchange of information relating to verification-related technologies so that they may benefit from participation in the Treaty regime

  5. Prognostic significance of serum bilirubin in stroke

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arslan, A.; Ismail, M.; Khan, F.; Khan, A.; Khattak, M.B.; Anwar, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Oxidative injury is an important cause of the neurologic lesion in stroke. Serum bilirubin is considered a natural antioxidant that may affect the prognosis of stroke. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of bilirubin in stroke patients. Methods: A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted in Medical Units of Khyber Teaching Hospital, Peshawar. Inpatients admitted with acute attack of stroke were included in this study. Data regarding serum bilirubin and concurrent cerebrovascular risk factors were collected. National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) were used to analyse stroke's severity and functional outcomes, respectively. Results: Hypertension, diabetes mellitus and heart diseases were the most common risk factors. Patients were divided into 3 groups on the basis of serum bilirubin, i.e., =0.6 mg/dl (Group-1), 0.7-0.9 mg/dl (Group-2), and =1.0 mg/dl (Group-3). The mean pre-hospitalisation NIHSS score for Groups 1, 2 and 3 was 5.62, 11.66 and 25.33, respectively; and post-hospitalisation score was 0.875, 3.76 and 16.26, respectively. The pre-hospitalisation mRS score was 4 for Group-1, 4.52 for Group-2 and 4.93 for Group-3; while post-hospitalisation Mrs Score was 1.50, 2.38 and 4.26, respectively. Average serum bilirubin level was significantly higher in patients with poor outcomes as compared with good outcomes (p<0.01). Conclusions: This study suggests that higher serum bilirubin levels were associated with increased stroke severity, longer hospitalisation and poor prognosis. (author)

  6. Immunophenotyping in leukemia and its diagnostic significance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. B. Kresno

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The identification of cell surface markers, defined as clusters of differentiation antigens (CD’s could be used to classify and sub-classify leukemia. Although the same antigens are expressed on normal cells, the phenotype on malignant cells are aberrantly and frequently asynchronously expressed and may be present in combinations not observed in normal blood or bone marrow. Aberrant expression of surface antigens corresponds with poor therapeutic response and short survival. Additional surface marker analysis complementary to morphologic evaluation and cytochemical staining has greatly improved our ability to characterize hematologic malignancies. A review and illustration on the diagnostic significance of immunophenotyping in leukemia will be presented. Data from 225 patients having complete assessments including morphology, cytochemistry and immunophenotyping in the period of 1994-2001 were collected and analyzed. Based on morphologic evaluation and cytochemistry, the diagnosis of acute myeloid leukemia and acute lymphoblastic leukemia were established in 51.1% and 48.9% of cases, respectively. Based on immunophenotyping AML was found in 49.0% of the cases. ALL could be classified into 4.9% pre-B-ALL, 18.7% B-ALL, and 14.7% T-ALL. Cases expressing cross-lineage antigens were found in 12.7%. The prognostic significance of these aberrant expression of antigens for those cases has yet to be established but some of the cases responded poorly to therapy. Immunophenotyping provides the tool to: 1 distinguish normal from clonal populations of leukemic cells; 2 define lineage and reveal the stage of maturation; 3 identify inappropriate expression of lineage associated antigens; 4 provides more informations to establish diagnosis and prognosis compared to standard methods. (Med J Indones 2004; 13: 195-202 Keywords: Immunophenotyping, clusters of differentiation antigens, lineage associated antigens

  7. Real significance of skin contamination is

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sudmann, R.H.

    1983-01-01

    For five decades, health physicists have discussed the thickness, area, significance of radioactive contamination and the exposures to various portions of the skin. Concern about instances of skin contamination extend beyond the resultant organ dose simply because it is a recognizable and quantifiable event. As such, there is a tendency for management and regulatory agencies to use it as a trend indicator. The final result is a score card similar to the list of OSHA reportable accidents. In fact, the skin contamination incidence rate has a somewhat different meaning to the health physicist, to the manager, and to the regulator. The question must then be asked, What is the true significance of skin contamination, Is it the resultant skin dose, Is it an indicator of loss of control, Is it both or neither. In order to answer these questions, Rockwell Hanford Operations began analysis of the previous five years records of skin contamination cases. Since by policy each incidence of skin contamination is documented, a large percentage of the 425 records analyzed were of low level activity (less than 100 dpm/cm 2 ) on the extremeties, primarily hands and fingers. Most of these cases were readily decontaminated with soap and water. Individual elements studied included: detection/monitoring methods and limits; impact of type of operation on the incidence rate; causes of and methods for reduction of the incidence rate; reporting and documentation; and dose assessment. Results of the study indicate that skin contamination rarely presents a beta dose problem because it is normally highly localized on the extremeties. Only in unusual cases does it represent a potential for internal deposition. Thus, the real importance of skin contamination incidence is as an indicator of deteriorating conditions and should be reviewed by health physicists, managers and regulators as such

  8. Carotid endarterectomy significantly improves postoperative laryngeal sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammer, Georg Philipp; Tomazic, Peter Valentin; Vasicek, Sarah; Graupp, Matthias; Gugatschka, Markus; Baumann, Anneliese; Konstantiniuk, Peter; Koter, Stephan Herwig

    2016-11-01

    Iatrogenic injury of the vagus nerve or its branches during carotid endarterectomy (CEA) can result in globus sensation, dysphagia, and even vocal fold immobility. Knowledge of morphologic and functional laryngopharyngeal outcomes after CEA is poor. The present study was performed to determine potential iatrogenic damage to the laryngeal innervation after CEA. An area of particular interest was the supraglottic sensory threshold, which was examined by Fiberoptic Endoscopic Evaluation of Swallowing With Sensory Testing (FEESST; Pentax Medical Company, Montvale, NJ), a validated and safe method for the determination of the motor and sensory components of swallowing. FEESST was used preoperatively in 32 patients scheduled to undergo CEA and twice postoperatively to examine the motor and sensory components of swallowing. In this endolaryngeal examination, laryngopharyngeal sensory thresholds (in mm Hg) were defined as normal at 6.0 mm Hg APP, with a value >10.0 mm Hg APP indicating abolished laryngeal adductor reflex. Acoustic voice parameters were also analyzed for further functional changes of the larynx. The mean ± standard deviation preoperative FEESST measures showed no significant differences (P = .065) between the operated-on side (6.73 ± 1.73 mm Hg) and the opposite side (5.83 ± 1.68 mm Hg). At 2 days postoperatively, the threshold increased (P = .001) to 7.62 ± 1.98 mm Hg on the operated-on side. A laryngopharyngeal mucosal hematoma on the operated side was endoscopically detectable in eight patients (30.8%); in these patients, we found a markedly elevated (P = .021) measure of 9.50 ± 0.93 mm Hg. On the opposite (nonoperated-on) side of the laryngopharynx, the thresholds remained at the same level as preoperatively over all assessments (P >.05), whereas the differences between the operated and nonoperated-on sides and the hematoma and nonhematoma groups were highly significant (P = .004 and P = .001, respectively). Surprisingly, the

  9. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R.; Gutjar, Swetlana; ter Horst, Gert J.; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J.; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments.

  10. Numerical prediction of slamming loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seng, Sopheak; Jensen, Jørgen J; Pedersen, Preben T

    2012-01-01

    It is important to include the contribution of the slamming-induced response in the structural design of large vessels with a significant bow flare. At the same time it is a challenge to develop rational tools to determine the slamming-induced loads and the prediction of their occurrence. Today i...

  11. Significance of blood examination in radiation workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Hirofumi; Nakamura, Shinobu; Ando, Atsushi; Kojima, Kazuhiko; Kikuta, Yoko.

    1978-01-01

    Blood examination made for the past 3 years revealed that the influences of chronic exposure of extremely small amounts of radiation (an average of 5 mrem/day) on peripheral blood are not detected. However, the blood examination, which is prescribed at least twice a year by law, is for determining whether or not the results of blood examination are within a normal range. Therefore, even though influences of a large amount of radiation are detected, it has little significance as a monitoring of chronic exposure of extremely small amounts of radiation. If the blood examination is used as a monitoring method for detecting exposure, it is important to compare the results with the previous ones in the same individuals. It is also necessary to increase the number of examinations and to study the blood more in detail. However, before that, the standard of the evaluation should be more defined because of its obscurity. The present blood examination is useful in managing the health generally. However, it is not good as a monitoring for chronic exposure of the extremely small amounts of radiation. Therefore, a routine biological method to be able to monitor radiation more precisely, is required. (Namekawa, K.)

  12. Making lasting memories: Remembering the significant

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGaugh, James L.

    2013-01-01

    Although forgetting is the common fate of most of our experiences, much evidence indicates that emotional arousal enhances the storage of memories, thus serving to create, selectively, lasting memories of our more important experiences. The neurobiological systems mediating emotional arousal and memory are very closely linked. The adrenal stress hormones epinephrine and corticosterone released by emotional arousal regulate the consolidation of long-term memory. The amygdala plays a critical role in mediating these stress hormone influences. The release of norepinephrine in the amygdala and the activation of noradrenergic receptors are essential for stress hormone-induced memory enhancement. The findings of both animal and human studies provide compelling evidence that stress-induced activation of the amygdala and its interactions with other brain regions involved in processing memory play a critical role in ensuring that emotionally significant experiences are well-remembered. Recent research has determined that some human subjects have highly superior autobiographic memory of their daily experiences and that there are structural differences in the brains of these subjects compared with the brains of subjects who do not have such memory. Understanding of neurobiological bases of such exceptional memory may provide additional insights into the processes underlying the selectivity of memory. PMID:23754441

  13. PROMPT Ia SUPERNOVAE ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raskin, Cody; Scannapieco, Evan; Rhoads, James; Della Valle, Massimo

    2009-01-01

    The time delay between the formation of a population of stars and the onset of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) sets important limits on the masses and nature of SN Ia progenitors. Here, we use a new observational technique to measure this time delay by comparing the spatial distributions of SNe Ia to their local environments. Previous work attempted such analyses encompassing the entire host of each SN Ia, yielding inconclusive results. Our approach confines the analysis only to the relevant portions of the hosts, allowing us to show that even so-called prompt SNe Ia that trace star formation on cosmic timescales exhibit a significant delay time of 200-500 million years. This implies that either the majority of Ia companion stars have main-sequence masses less than 3 M sun , or that most SNe Ia arise from double white dwarf binaries. Our results are also consistent with a SNe Ia rate that traces the white dwarf formation rate, scaled by a fixed efficiency factor.

  14. Clinical significance of anaplasia in childhood rhabdomyosarcoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidhom, Iman; El Nadi, Enas; Taha, Hala; Elkinaai, Naglaa; Zaghloul, Mohamed S; Younes, Alaa; Labib, Rania; Sabry, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    The presence of anaplastic features has been known to correlate with poor clinical outcome in various pediatric malignancies, including Wilms tumor and medulloblastoma but not in rhabdomyosarcoma. Aim was to study the frequency of anaplasia at presentation in childhood rhabdomyosarcoma and its relationship to clinical and pathological characteristics as well as to outcome. Anaplasia was retrospectively assessed in 105 consecutive pediatric rhabdomyosarcoma patients who were registered at the Children's Cancer Hospital in Egypt (CCHE) during the period from July 2007 till the end of May 2010. Anaplasia was diagnosed in 18 patients (17.1%), focal in 10 (9.5%) and diffuse in 8 (7.6%). The distribution of anaplasia was found to be more common in older patients having age⩾10 years. Also it was more likely to occur in the high risk group and in tumors with unfavorable histology (alveolar subtype), and stage IV. The 3-year failure free survival rates for patients with and without anaplasia were 27.8±10.6% and 53.4±5.8%, respectively (p=0.014) and the 3-year overall survival rates were 35.3±11.6% and 61±6%, respectively (p=0.019). The frequency of anaplasia in pediatric patients with rhabdomyosarcoma in our study was 17.1%. The presence of anaplasia had statistically significant worse clinical outcome. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Clinical significance of anaplasia in childhood rhabdomyosarcoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sidhom, I.; El Nadi, E.; Taha, H.; Elkinaai, N.; Zaghloul, M.S.; Younes, A.; Labib, R.; Sabry, M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The presence of anaplastic features has been known to correlate with poor clinical outcome in various pediatric malignancies, including Wilms tumor and medulloblastoma but not in rhabdomyosarcoma. Aim: Aim was to study the frequency of anaplasia at presentation in childhood rhabdomyosarcoma and its relationship to clinical and pathological characteristics as well as to outcome. Patients and Methods: Anaplasia was retrospectively assessed in 105 consecutive pediatric rhabdomyosarcoma patients who were registered at the Children’s Cancer Hospital in Egypt (CCHE) during the period from July 2007 till the end of May 2010. Results: Anaplasia was diagnosed in 18 patients (17.1%), focal in 10 (9.5%) and diffuse in 8 (7.6%). The distribution of anaplasia was found to be more common in older patients having age P 10 years. Also it was more likely to occur in the high risk group and in tumors with unfavorable histology (alveolar subtype), and stage IV. The 3-year failure free survival rates for patients with and without anaplasia were 27.8 ± 10.6% and 53.4 ± 5.8%, respectively (p = 0.014) and the 3-year overall survival rates were 35.3 ± 11.6% and 61 ± 6%, respectively (p = 0.019). Conclusions: The frequency of anaplasia in pediatric patients with rhabdomyosarcoma in our study was 17.1%. The presence of anaplasia had statistically significant worse clinical outcome

  16. Traditional Indian spices and their health significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnaswamy, Kamala

    2008-01-01

    India has been recognized all over the world for spices and medicinal plants. Both exhibit a wide range of physiological and pharmacological properties. Current biomedical efforts are focused on their scientific merits, to provide science-based evidence for the traditional uses and to develop either functional foods or nutraceuticals. The Indian traditional medical systems use turmeric for wound healing, rheumatic disorders, gastrointestinal symptoms, deworming, rhinitis and as a cosmetic. Studies in India have explored its anti-inflammatory, cholekinetic and anti-oxidant potentials with the recent investigations focusing on its preventive effect on precarcinogenic, anti-inflammatory and anti atherosclerotic effects in biological systems both under in vitro and in vivo conditions in animals and humans. Both turmeric and curcumin were found to increase detoxifying enzymes, prevent DNA damage, improve DNA repair, decrease mutations and tumour formation and exhibit antioxidative potential in animals. Limited clinical studies suggest that turmeric can significantly impact excretion of mutagens in urine in smokers and regress precancerous palatal lesions. It reduces DNA adducts and micronuclei in oral epithelial cells. It prevents formation of nitroso compounds both in vivo and in vitro. It delays induced cataract in diabetes and reduces hyperlipidemia in obese rats. Recently several molecular targets have been identified for therapeutic / preventive effects of turmeric. Fenugreek seeds, a rich source of soluble fiber used in Indian cuisine reduces blood glucose and lipids and can be used as a food adjuvant in diabetes. Similarly garlic, onions, and ginger have been found to modulate favourably the process of carcinogenesis.

  17. The measure and significance of Bateman's principles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Julie M; Dean, Rebecca F; Worley, Kirsty; Richardson, David S; Pizzari, Tommaso

    2014-05-07

    Bateman's principles explain sex roles and sexual dimorphism through sex-specific variance in mating success, reproductive success and their relationships within sexes (Bateman gradients). Empirical tests of these principles, however, have come under intense scrutiny. Here, we experimentally show that in replicate groups of red junglefowl, Gallus gallus, mating and reproductive successes were more variable in males than in females, resulting in a steeper male Bateman gradient, consistent with Bateman's principles. However, we use novel quantitative techniques to reveal that current methods typically overestimate Bateman's principles because they (i) infer mating success indirectly from offspring parentage, and thus miss matings that fail to result in fertilization, and (ii) measure Bateman gradients through the univariate regression of reproductive over mating success, without considering the substantial influence of other components of male reproductive success, namely female fecundity and paternity share. We also find a significant female Bateman gradient but show that this likely emerges as spurious consequences of male preference for fecund females, emphasizing the need for experimental approaches to establish the causal relationship between reproductive and mating success. While providing qualitative support for Bateman's principles, our study demonstrates how current approaches can generate a misleading view of sex differences and roles.

  18. Significance and popularity in music production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravino, Pietro; Servedio, Vito D. P.; Tria, Francesca; Loreto, Vittorio

    2017-01-01

    Creative industries constantly strive for fame and popularity. Though highly desirable, popularity is not the only achievement artistic creations might ever acquire. Leaving a longstanding mark in the global production and influencing future works is an even more important achievement, usually acknowledged by experts and scholars. ‘Significant’ or ‘influential’ works are not always well known to the public or have sometimes been long forgotten by the vast majority. In this paper, we focus on the duality between what is successful and what is significant in the musical context. To this end, we consider a user-generated set of tags collected through an online music platform, whose evolving co-occurrence network mirrors the growing conceptual space underlying music production. We define a set of general metrics aiming at characterizing music albums throughout history, and their relationships with the overall musical production. We show how these metrics allow to classify albums according to their current popularity or their belonging to expert-made lists of important albums. In this way, we provide the scientific community and the public at large with quantitative tools to tell apart popular albums from culturally or aesthetically relevant artworks. The generality of the methodology presented here lends itself to be used in all those fields where innovation and creativity are in play. PMID:28791169

  19. CT diagnostic significance of tuboovarian abscess

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du Tieqiao; Dong Jie; Xu Quanying; An Haiqin; Sang Chunyu

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To analyze computed tomographic (CT) imaging features of tuboovarian abscess as well as to discuss CT diagnostic significance. Methods: Ten patients with tuboovarian abscess were performed CT enhancing scans. Results: Ten patients manifested thick-walled, cystic-solid complex adnexal mass and indistinct margins on CT imaging. Internal thick septations and layered enhancement of the mass border on CT contrast images were common. Associated findings of CT included thickening of' the uterosacral ligaments in 9 of 10 patients, increased attenuation of the presacral and perirectal fat secondary to edema in 9 patients, serpiginous structure corresponding to a dilated, pus-filled fallopian tube in 6 patients and fluid-filled within uterine cavity in 4 patients. On CT scans, the inflammatory infiltration of adnexal abscesses involved pelvic structure included adhesion with borders of uterus in 9 patients, adhesion with rectal or sigmoid in 4 patients and pelvic wall or bowel loop in 3 patients. Two cases with peritoneal thicken showed ascites on CT images and right adnexal tuboovarian abscess in 2 patients were associated with appendicitis. Conclusion: CT can reveal pelvic adjacent organs involvement or adhesion and inflammatory infihration of pelvic floor soft-tissues or fascial planes except showing cystic solid complex mass of adnexal location so that indicating characteristics and the extent of the suspected pelvic inflammatory diseases. CT can be valuable in difficult cases of gynecologic infective diseases. (authors)

  20. Clinical significance of perceptible fetal motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rayburn, W F

    1980-09-15

    The monitoring of fetal activity during the last trimester of pregnancy has been proposed to be useful in assessing fetal welfare. The maternal perception of fetal activity was tested among 82 patients using real-time ultrasonography. All perceived fetal movements were visualized on the scanner and involved motion of the lower limbs. Conversely, 82% of all visualized motions of fetal limbs were perceived by the patients. All combined motions of fetal trunk with limbs were preceived by the patients and described as strong movements, whereas clusters of isolated, weak motions of the fetal limbs were less accurately perceived (56% accuracy). The number of fetal movements perceived during the 15-minute test period was significantly (p fetal motion was present (44 of 45 cases) than when it was absent (five of 10 cases). These findings reveal that perceived fetal motion is: (1) reliable; (2) related to the strength of lower limb motion; (3) increased with ruptured amniotic membranes; and (4) reassuring if considered to be active.

  1. Evolutionary significance of ageing in the wild.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowald, Axel; Kirkwood, Thomas B L

    2015-11-01

    Human lifespan has risen dramatically over the last 150 years, leading to a significant increase in the fraction of aged people in the population. Until recently it was believed that this contrasted strongly with the situation in wild populations of animals, where the likelihood of encountering demonstrably senescent individuals was believed to be negligible. Over the recent years, however, a series of field studies has appeared that shows ageing can also be observed for many species in the wild. We discuss here the relevance of this finding for the different evolutionary theories of ageing, since it has been claimed that ageing in the wild is incompatible with the so-called non-adaptive (non-programmed) theories, i.e. those in which ageing is presumed not to offer a direct selection benefit. We show that a certain proportion of aged individuals in the population is fully compatible with the antagonistic pleiotropy and the disposable soma theories, while it is difficult to reconcile with the mutation accumulation theory. We also quantify the costs of ageing using life history data from recent field studies and a range of possible metrics. We discuss the merits and problems of the different metrics and also introduce a new metric, yearly death toll, that aims directly at quantifying the deaths caused by the ageing process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  3. Medical Significance of Microorganisms in Spacecraft Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierson, Duane L.; Ott, C. Mark

    2007-01-01

    Microorganisms can spoil food supplies, contaminate drinking water, release noxious volatile compounds, initiate allergic responses, contaminate the environment, and cause infectious diseases. International acceptability limits have been established for bacterial and fungal contaminants in air and on surfaces, and environmental monitoring is conducted to ensure compliance. Allowable levels of microorganism in water and food have also been established. Environmental monitoring of the space shuttle, the Mir, and the ISS have allowed for some general conclusions. Generally, the bacteria found in air and on interior surfaces are largely of human origin such as Staphylococcus spp., Micrococcus spp. Common environmental genera such as Bacillus spp. are the most commonly isolated bacteria from all spacecraft. Yeast species associated with humans such as Candida spp. are commonly found. Aspergillus spp., Penicillium spp., and Cladosporium spp. are the most commonly isolated filamentous fungi. Microbial levels in the environment differ significantly depending upon humidity levels, condensate accumulation, and availability of carbon sources. However, human "normal flora" of bacteria and fungi can result in serious, life-threatening diseases if human immunity is compromised. Disease incidence is expected to increase as mission duration increases.

  4. [The significance of meat quality in marketing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallweit, E

    1994-07-01

    Food quality in general and meat quality in particular are not only evaluated by means of objective quality traits but the entire production process is gaining more attention by the modern consumer. Due to this development quality programs were developed to define the majority of the processes in all production and marketing steps which are again linked by contracts. Not all of these items are quality relevant, but are concessions to ethic principles (animal welfare etc.). This is demonstrated by the example of Scharrel-pork production. The price differentiation at the pork market is still influenced predominantly by quantitative carcass traits. On the European market quality programs still are of minor significance. Premiums which are paid for high quality standards are more or less compensated by higher production costs and lower lean meat percentages, which must be expected in stress susceptible strains. The high efforts to establish quality programs, however, help to improve the quality level in general, and secure the market shares for local producers.

  5. Radiological significance of thorium processing in manufacturing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, M.W.

    1985-01-01

    The study of thorium processing in manufacturing comprised monitoring programs at a plant where thorium dioxide was in use and another where the use of thorium nitrate had been discontinued. The measurements of the solubility in simulated lung fluid proved that both materials belonged in the Y Class with dissolution half-times greater than 500 days. Bioassay measurements of 20 subjects from both facilities proved that in vitro monitoring methods, urine, feces, hair and nails analysis were not sufficient indicators of thorium uptake. In vivo monitoring by phoswich and large sodium iodide detectors were proven to be good methods of determining thorium lung burdens. The thoron in breath technique was shown to have a lower limit of sensitivity than lung counting, however, due to lack of information regarding the thoron escape rate from the thorium particles in the lungs the method is not as accurate as lung counting. Two subjects at the thorium dioxide facility had lung burdens of 21+- 16 Bq and 29+- 24 Bq Th 232 and one at the thorium nitrate facility had a lung burden of 37+- 13 Bq. Improvements in the procedures and use of a glove box were among the recommendations to reduce the inhalation of thorium by workers at the thorium dioxide facility. Decontamination of several rooms at the thorium nitrate facility and sealing of the walls and floors were recommended in order to reduce the escape of thoron gas into the room air. The risk to non Atomic Radiation Workers was primarily due to thoron daughters in air while gamma radiation and thorium in air were less important. Conversely, at the thorium dioxide facility the inhalation of thorium in air was the most significant exposure pathway

  6. Psoriasis causes significant economic burden to patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mustonen, A; Mattila, K; Leino, M; Koulu, L; Tuominen, R

    2014-06-01

    Psoriasis results in expenses to patients from many cost sources. Psoriasis treatments may result in considerable time and traveling costs, yet many studies fail to account for these costs. The objective of this study was to evaluate the multidimensional economic burden of psoriasis to patients. The study was based on 232 Finnish patients with psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis visiting a tertiary level dermatological clinic during a 1-year study period between October 1, 2009 and September 30, 2010. The data were based on a patient questionnaire, clinical data from the medical records and reimbursement data from the Finnish Social Insurance Institution. Item costs were based on true costs charged from the patients and all time cost estimates were based on the Human Capital Approach method. 199 patients with psoriasis and 33 with psoriatic arthritis were included in the study. Total costs were higher for patients receiving traditional systemic medications or phototherapy than those not receiving such treatment. Travel costs and travel time costs accounted for more than 60% of the costs of phototherapy. Skin care at home was time consuming and thus caused significant burden to patients. The majority of the visit costs arose from hospital visits and only a small proportion were attributed to visiting primary health care providers. Visit charges and other patient co-payments were estimated to play a minor role in the total cost of psoriasis incurred by patients, while travel costs and lost time comprised the majority of the costs, which should not be omitted in future studies regarding costs of treatments.

  7. Significance of venous anastomosis in fingertip replantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattori, Yasunori; Doi, Kazuteru; Ikeda, Keisuke; Abe, Yukio; Dhawan, Vikas

    2003-03-01

    Adequate venous outflow is the most important factor for successful fingertip replantation. The authors have attempted venous anastomosis in all cases of fingertip replantation to overcome postoperative congestion. In this article, the significance of venous repair for fingertip replantation is described from the authors' results of 64 complete fingertip amputations in 55 consecutive patients, which were replanted from January of 1996 to June of 2001. The overall survival rate was 86 percent. Of the 44 replantations in zone I, 37 survived, and the success rate was 84 percent. Of the 20 replantations in zone II, 18 survived, and the success rate was 90 percent. Venous anastomosis was attempted in all cases, but it was possible in 39 zone I and in all zone II replantations. For arterial repair, vein grafts were necessary in 17 of the 44 zone I and in one of the 20 zone II replantations; for venous repair, they were necessary in six zone I replantations and one zone II replantation. Postoperative vascular complications occurred in 15 replantations. There were five cases of arterial thrombosis and 10 cases of venous congestion. Venous congestion occurred in nine zone I and one zone II replantations. In five of these 10 replantations, venous anastomosis was not possible. In another five replantations, venous outflow was established at the time of surgery, but occlusion occurred subsequently. Except for the five failures resulting from arterial thrombosis, successful venous repair was possible in 49 of 59 replantations (83 percent). Despite the demand for skillful microsurgical technique and longer operation time, the authors' results using venous anastomosis in successful fingertip replantations are encouraging. By performing venous anastomosis, external bleeding can be avoided and a higher survival rate can be achieved. Venous anastomosis for fingertip replantation is a reliable and worthwhile procedure.

  8. Clinical significance of autoantibodies in autoimmune hepatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberal, Rodrigo; Mieli-Vergani, Giorgina; Vergani, Diego

    2013-10-01

    The accurate diagnosis and classification of autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) rely upon the detection of characteristic autoantibodies. Positivity for anti-nuclear (ANA) and/or anti-smooth muscle (SMA) autoantibodies defines AIH type 1 (AIH-1), whereas anti-liver kidney microsomal type 1 (anti-LKM1) and/or anti-liver cytosol type 1 (anti-LC1) define AIH type 2 (AIH-2). ANA and SMA, and less commonly anti-LKM1, have also been detected in de-novo autoimmune hepatitis developing after liver transplantation, a condition that may affect patients transplanted for non-autoimmune liver disease. The diagnostic autoantibodies associated with AIH-1 are also detected in the paediatric AIH/sclerosing cholangitis overlap syndrome, referred to as autoimmune sclerosing cholangitis (ASC). ASC, like adult primary sclerosing cholangitis, is often associated with atypical perinuclear anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic autoantibodies (p-ANCA), although p-ANCA are also detected in other autoimmune liver diseases. These associations highlight the necessity for simple and prompt diagnostic autoantibody testing, and the requirement for the accurate interpretation of the results of the tests in the clinical context. Fine-mapping of antigenic autoantibody targets has facilitated the development of rapid molecular assays that have the potential to revolutionise the field if properly standardised and when used in combination with classical immunofluorescence. Despite their diagnostic significance, the pathogenic role of the various autoantibodies and the mechanisms by which they can potentially inflict damage onto the liver cell remain a topic for further research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The significance of routines in nursing practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rytterström, Patrik; Unosson, Mitra; Arman, Maria

    2011-12-01

    The aim of this study was to illuminate the significance of routines in nursing practice. Clinical nursing is performed under the guidance of routines to varying degrees. In the nursing literature, routine is described as having both negative and positive aspects, but use of the term is inconsistent, and empirical evidence is sparse. In the research on organisational routines, a distinction is made between routine as a rule and routine as action. A qualitative design using a phenomenological-hermeneutic approach. Data collection from three focus groups focused on nurses' experience of routines. Seventeen individual interviews from a previous study focusing on caring culture were also analysed in a secondary qualitative analysis. All participants were employed as 'qualified nursing pool' nurses. Routines are experienced as pragmatic, obstructive and meaningful. The aim of the pragmatic routine was to ensure that daily working life works; this routine is practised more on the basis of rational arguments and obvious intentions. The obstructive routine had negative consequences for nursing practice and was described as nursing losing its humanity and violating the patient's integrity. The meaningful routine involved becoming one with the routine and for the nurses, it felt right and meaningful to adapt to it. Routines become meaningful when the individual action is in harmony with the cultural pattern on which the nursing work is based. Instead of letting contemporary practice passively become routine, routines can be assessed and developed using research and theoretical underpinnings as a starting point for nursing practice. Leaders have a special responsibility to develop and support meaningful routines. One approach could be to let wards examine their routines from a patient perspective on the basis of the themes of pragmatic, meaningful and obstructive routine. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. The uriscreen test to detect significant asymptomatic bacteriuria during pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teppa, Roberto J; Roberts, James M

    2005-01-01

    Asymptomatic bacteriuria (ASB) occurs in 2-11% of pregnancies and it is a clear predisposition to the development of acute pyelonephritis, which, in turn, poses risk to mother and fetus. Treatment of bacteriuria during pregnancy reduces the incidence of pyelonephritis. Therefore, it is recommended to screen for ASB at the first prenatal visit. The gold standard for detection of bacteriuria during pregnancy is urine culture, but this test is expensive, time-consuming, and labor-intensive. To determine the reliability of an enzymatic urine screening test (Uriscreen; Savyon Diagnostics, Ashdod, Israel) for detecting ASB in pregnancy. Catheterized urine samples were collected from 150 women who had routine prenatal screening for ASB. Patients with urinary symptoms, active vaginal bleeding, or who were previously on antibiotics therapy were excluded from the study. Sensitivity, specificity, and the positive and negative predictive values for the Uriscreen were estimated using urine culture as the criterion standard. Urine cultures were considered positive if they grew >10(5) colony-forming units of a single uropathogen. Twenty-eight women (18.7%) had urine culture results indicating significant bacteriuria, and 17 of these 28 specimens had positive enzyme activity. Of 122 samples with no growth, 109 had negative enzyme activity. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for the Uriscreen test were 60.7% (+/-18.1), 89.3% (+/-5.6), 56.6%, and 90.8%, respectively. The Uriscreen test had inadequate sensitivity for rapid screening of bacteriuria in pregnancy.

  11. Motor degradation prediction methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-12-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor`s duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures.

  12. Motor degradation prediction methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-01-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor's duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures

  13. Prognostic Significance of Signet Ring Gastric Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghavi, Sharven; Jayarajan, Senthil N.; Davey, Adam; Willis, Alliric I.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose Studies in Asia have questioned the dictum that signet ring cell carcinoma (SRC) has a worse prognosis than other forms of gastric cancer. Our study determined differences in presentation and outcomes between SRC and gastric adenocarcinoma (AC) in the United States. Patients and Methods The National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was reviewed for SRC and AC from 2004 to 2007. Results We reviewed 10,246 cases of patients with gastric cancer, including 2,666 of SRC and 7,580 of AC. SRC presented in younger patients (61.9 v 68.7 years; P < .001) and less often in men (52.7% v 68.7%; P < .001). SRC patients were more frequently black (11.3% v 10.9%), Asian (16.4% v 13.2%), American Indian/Alaska Native (0.9% v 0.8%), or Hispanic (23.3% v 14.0%; P < .001). SRC was more likely to be stage T3-4 (45.8% v 33.3%), have lymph node spread (59.7% v 51.8%), and distant metastases (40.2% v 37.6%; P < .001). SRC was more likely to be found in the lower (30.7% v 24.2%) and middle stomach (30.6% v 20.7%; P < .001). Median survival was not different between the two (AC, 14.0 months v SRC, 13.0 months; P = .073). Multivariable analyses demonstrated SRC was not associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.11; P = .150). Mortality was associated with age (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.02; P < .001), black race (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.20; P = .026), and tumor grade. Variables associated with lower mortality risk included Asian race (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.91; P < .001) and surgery (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.39; P < .001). Conclusion In the United States, SRC significantly differs from AC in extent of disease at presentation. However, when adjusted for stage, SRC does not portend a worse prognosis. PMID:22927530

  14. Biological significance of soluble IL-2 receptor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Calogero Caruso

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available A NUMBER of receptors for growth factors and differentiation antigens have been found to be secreted or released by cells. Following mononuclear cell (MNC activation and interleukin-2 receptor (IL-2R expression, a soluble form of the Alpha;-chain of IL-2R (sIL-2R is released. The sIL-2R has been shown to be present in the culture supernatants of activated MNCs as well as in normal sera and, in higher amounts, in sera from subjects affected by several diseases including neoplastic, infectious and autoimmune ones, and in sera from transplanted patients suffering allograft rejection. The blood sIL-2R levels depend on the number of producing cells and the number of molecules per cell, so that sIL-2R blood values may represent an index of the number and the functional state of producing cells, both normal and neoplastic. Thus, monitoring of the immune system, mostly T-cells and haematological malignancies might be targets for the measurement of sIL-2R. Since many conditions may influence sIL-2R production, little diagnostic use may result from these measurements. However, since blood sIL-2R levels may correlate with disease progression and/or response to therapy, their measurement may be a useful index of activity and extent of disease. The precise biological role of the soluble form of the IL-2R is still a matter of debate. However, we know that increased sIL-2R levels may be observed in association with several immunological abnormalities and that sIL-2R is able to bind IL-2. It is conceivable then that in these conditions the excess sIL-2R released in vivo by activated lymphoid cells or by neoplastic cells may somehow regulate IL-2-dependent processes. On the other hand, it cannot exclude that sIL-2R is a by-product without biological significance. Finally, it is puzzling that in many conditions in which an increase of blood sIL-2R values has been observed, MNCs display a decreased in vitro capacity to produce sIL-2R. These seemingly contrasting

  15. Lightning prediction using radiosonde data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weng, L.Y.; Bin Omar, J.; Siah, Y.K.; Bin Zainal Abidin, I.; Ahmad, S.K. [Univ. Tenaga, Darul Ehsan (Malaysia). College of Engineering

    2008-07-01

    Lightning is a natural phenomenon in tropical regions. Malaysia experiences very high cloud-to-ground lightning density, posing both health and economic concerns to individuals and industries. In the commercial sector, power lines, telecommunication towers and buildings are most frequently hit by lightning. In the event that a power line is hit and the protection system fails, industries which rely on that power line would cease operations temporarily, resulting in significant monetary loss. Current technology is unable to prevent lightning occurrences. However, the ability to predict lightning would significantly reduce damages from direct and indirect lightning strikes. For that reason, this study focused on developing a method to predict lightning with radiosonde data using only a simple back propagation neural network model written in C code. The study was performed at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA). In this model, the parameters related to wind were disregarded. Preliminary results indicate that this method shows some positive results in predicting lighting. However, a larger dataset is needed in order to obtain more accurate predictions. It was concluded that future work should include wind parameters to fully capture all properties for lightning formation, subsequently its prediction. 8 refs., 5 figs.

  16. Dynamical Predictability of Monthly Means.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, J.

    1981-12-01

    We have attempted to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed nonfluctuating external forcings. We have extended the concept of `classical' predictability, which primarily refers to the lack of predictability due mainly to the instabilities of synoptic-scale disturbances, to the predictability of time averages, which are determined by the predictability of low-frequency planetary waves. We have carded out 60-day integrations of a global general circulation model with nine different initial conditions but identical boundary conditions of sea surface temperature, snow, sea ice and soil moisture. Three of these initial conditions are the observed atmospheric conditions on 1 January of 1975, 1976 and 1977. The other six initial conditions are obtained by superimposing over the observed initial conditions a random perturbation comparable to the errors of observation. The root-mean-square (rms) error of random perturbations at all the grid points and all the model levels is 3 m s1 in u and v components of wind. The rms vector wind error between the observed initial conditions is >15 m s1.It is hypothesized that for a given averaging period, if the rms error among the time averages predicted from largely different initial conditions becomes comparable to the rms error among the time averages predicted from randomly perturbed initial conditions, the time averages are dynamically unpredictable. We have carried out the analysis of variance to compare the variability, among the three groups, due to largely different initial conditions, and within each group due to random perturbations.It is found that the variances among the first 30-day means, predicted from largely different initial conditions, are significantly different from the variances due to random perturbations in the initial conditions, whereas the variances among 30-day means for days 31-60 are not distinguishable from the variances due to random initial

  17. Significance of NTM infections in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V Katalinic-Jankovic

    2015-01-01

    laboratory are sent to the National Reference Laboratory for identification. NTM strains have been systematically recorded and reported since 1982. In the last decade, two retrospective analyses were done to assess the clinical relevance of different NTM species and the burden of pulmonary NTM disease. Over the past decade, a 30-fold increase in overall NTM isolation rates and a 4-fold increase in PNTM incidence were observed. Mycobacterium xenopi was the most frequently seen causative agent of pulmonary NTM disease, but the degree of clinical relevance (i.e., percentage of patients meeting the diagnosis criteria, per species was higher for isolates of MAC (66.5% and M. kansasii (57.2%. Only about 30% of the M. xenopi isolates represented true disease. Further, interesting regional differences were observed. Clinically relevant NTM isolates were significantly more often found in the coastal region of Croatia, and the average annual incidence of the PNTM was twice as high in coastal compared with the continental region. The overall burden of PNTM in Croatia is still low compared with tuberculosis. This can, in part, explain the observed lack of knowledge of NTM infections among respiratory specialists. Since these pathogens are increasingly common worldwide, especially in countries where the incidence of tuberculosis is declining, a constant rising of awareness and knowledge is necessary.

  18. Detection of HCV core antigen and its diagnostic significance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YANG Jie

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo compare the abilities of the hepatitis C virus (HCV core antigen (cAg test and the HCV RNA assay for confirming anti-HCV presence in order to determine the clinical utility of the HCV-cAg as an alternative or confirmatory diagnostic tool. MethodsSerum samples collected from 158 patients diagnosed with HCV infection were subjected to the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-based HCV-cAg test. The optical density (OD measured values were used to calculate the ratio of specimen absorbance to the cutoff value (S/CO. Simultaneously, the serum samples were subjected to PCR-based nucleic acid amplification quantitative fluorescence detection of HCV RNA. ResultsNone of the serum samples had a S/CO value <1 for the HCV-cAg test (100% negative, but all of the samples had a S/CO value >5 (100% positive. The HCV-cAg test sensitivity was 87.05%, specificity was 76.67%, positive predictive value was 9653%, and negative predictive value was 44.23%. As the S/CO value gradually increased, the significantly higher positive coincident rate of the HCV RNA test decreased. The HCV RNA negative coincident rate was significantly higher than that of the HCV-cAg test. HCV-cAg S/CO values between 1 and 2 corresponded to an HCV RNA values between 1.0×103 copies/ml and 1.0×104 copies/ml. The highest S/CO value obtained was 1.992. ConclusionThe HCV-cAg test is comparable to the HCV RNA assay for diagnosing HCV infection.

  19. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  20. Prediction of eyespot infection risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Váòová

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to design a prediction model for eyespot (Tapesia yallundae infection based on climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, air humidity. Data from experiment years 1994-2002 were used to study correlations between the eyespot infection index and individual weather characteristics. The model of prediction was constructed using multiple regression when a separate parameter is assigned to each factor, i.e. the frequency of days with optimum temperatures, humidity, and precipitation. The correlation between relative air humidity and precipitation and the infection index is significant.

  1. Prognostic significance of lymphovascular invasion in radical prostatectomy specimens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yee, David S; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Lowrance, William T; Maschino, Alexandra C; Savage, Caroline J; Cronin, Angel M; Scardino, Peter T; Eastham, James A

    2011-08-01

    increased risk of BCR after RP on univariate (P < 0.001) and multivariate analysis (hazard ratio, 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.82; P = 0.017). As a result of the relatively short follow-up, the predictive accuracy of the standard clinicopathological features was high (concordance index, 0.880), and inclusion of LVI only marginally improved the predictive accuracy (0.884). Although associated with features of aggressive disease and BCR, LVI added minimally to established predictors on short follow-up. Further study of cohorts with longer follow-up is warranted to help determine its prognostic significance. © 2010 THE AUTHORS. BJU INTERNATIONAL © 2010 BJU INTERNATIONAL.

  2. Predicting outdoor sound

    CERN Document Server

    Attenborough, Keith; Horoshenkov, Kirill

    2014-01-01

    1. Introduction  2. The Propagation of Sound Near Ground Surfaces in a Homogeneous Medium  3. Predicting the Acoustical Properties of Outdoor Ground Surfaces  4. Measurements of the Acoustical Properties of Ground Surfaces and Comparisons with Models  5. Predicting Effects of Source Characteristics on Outdoor Sound  6. Predictions, Approximations and Empirical Results for Ground Effect Excluding Meteorological Effects  7. Influence of Source Motion on Ground Effect and Diffraction  8. Predicting Effects of Mixed Impedance Ground  9. Predicting the Performance of Outdoor Noise Barriers  10. Predicting Effects of Vegetation, Trees and Turbulence  11. Analytical Approximations including Ground Effect, Refraction and Turbulence  12. Prediction Schemes  13. Predicting Sound in an Urban Environment.

  3. Prognostic significance of snail expression in hilar cholangiocarcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kong, Dalu [Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Hexi District, Tianjin (China); Liang, Jun [Department of Oncology, Affiliated Hospital of Medical College, Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong Province (China); Li, Rong [Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Hexi District, Tianjin (China); Liu, Shihai [Department of Laboratory Center, Affiliated Hospital of Medical College, Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong Province (China); Wang, Jigang [Department of Oncology, Affiliated Hospital of Medical College, Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong Province (China); Zhang, Kejun; Chen, Dong [Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Medical College, Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong Province (China)

    2012-05-11

    Many patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HC) have a poor prognosis. Snail, a transcription factor and E-cadherin repressor, is a novel prognostic factor in many cancers. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between snail and E-cadherin protein expression and the prognostic significance of snail expression in HC. We examined the protein expression of snail and E-cadherin in HC tissues from 47 patients (22 males and 25 females, mean age 61.2 years) using immunohistochemistry and RT-PCR. Proliferation rate was also evaluated in the same cases by the MIB1 index. High, low and negative snail protein expression was recorded in 18 (38%), 17 (36%), and 12 (26%) cases, respectively, and 40.4% (19/47) cases showed reduced E-cadherin protein expression in HC samples. No significant correlation was found between snail and E-cadherin protein expression levels (P = 0.056). No significant correlation was found between snail protein expression levels and gender, age, tumor grade, vascular or perineural invasion, nodal metastasis and invasion, or proliferative index. Cancer samples with positive snail protein expression were associated with poor survival compared with the negative expresser groups. Kaplan-Meier curves comparing different snail protein expression levels to survival showed highly significant separation (P < 0.0001, log-rank test). With multivariate analysis, only snail protein expression among all parameters was found to influence survival (P = 0.0003). We suggest that snail expression levels can predict poor survival regardless of pathological features and tumor proliferation. Immunohistochemical detection of snail protein expression levels in routine sections may provide the first biological prognostic marker.

  4. Significance of Computed Tomography in the Diagnosis of Cerebrovascular Accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumnima Acharya

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cerebrovascular Accident (CVA is defined as abrupt onset of a neurological deficit that is attributable to a focal vascular cause. CT scan is a widely available, affordable, non-invasive and relatively accurate investigation in patients with stroke and is important to identify stroke pathology and exclude mimics. Aim of this study is to establish the diagnostic significance of computed tomography in cerebrovascular accident and to differentiate between cerebral infarction and cerebral haemorrhage with CT for better management of CVA. Methods: A one year observational cross sectional study was conducted in 100 patients that presented at the department of radiodiagnosis from emergency or ward within the one year of study period with the clinical diagnosis of stroke, and had a brain CT scan done within one to fourteen days of onset. Results: A total of 100 patients were studied. 66 were male and 34 were female with a male/female ratio of 1.9:1. Maximum number of cases (39% was in the age group of 61-80 yrs. Among 100 patients, 55 cases were clinically diagnosed as hemorrhagic stroke and 45 cases were clinically diagnosed with an infarct. Out of the 55 hemorrhagic cases, two cases were diagnosed as both hemorrhage and infarct by CT scan, one case had normal CT scan findings and one had subdural haemorrhage. These four cases were excluded while comparing the clinical diagnosis with CT scan finding. Among 51 clinically diagnosed cases of hemorrhagic stroke, 32(62.7% cases were proved by CT scan as hemorrhagic stroke and among clinically diagnosed cases of infarct, 39(86.7% cases were proved by CT scan as infarct which is statistically significant (p <0.001. A significant agreement between clinical and CT diagnosis was observed as indicated by kappa value of 0.49. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of clinical findings as compared to CT in diagnosing hemorrhage were 84.2%, 67.2%, 62.8% and 86

  5. Programming Useful Life Prediction (PULP), Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Accurately predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) provides significant benefits—it increases safety and reduces financial and labor resource requirements. Relying on...

  6. Predicting postoperative haemoglobin changes after burn surgery

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Burn surgery is associated with significant peri-operative haemoglobin. (Hb) changes. ... operative factors predictive of an Hb <7 g/dL on the first day after surgery, which were ..... clinical judgement, taking into consideration the risk associated.

  7. Predictable or not predictable? The MOV question

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thibault, C.L.; Matzkiw, J.N.; Anderson, J.W.; Kessler, D.W.

    1994-01-01

    Over the past 8 years, the nuclear industry has struggled to understand the dynamic phenomena experienced during motor-operated valve (MOV) operation under differing flow conditions. For some valves and designs, their operational functionality has been found to be predictable; for others, unpredictable. Although much has been accomplished over this period of time, especially on modeling valve dynamics, the unpredictability of many valves and designs still exists. A few valve manufacturers are focusing on improving design and fabrication techniques to enhance product reliability and predictability. However, this approach does not address these issues for installed and inpredictable valves. This paper presents some of the more promising techniques that Wyle Laboratories has explored with potential for transforming unpredictable valves to predictable valves and for retrofitting installed MOVs. These techniques include optimized valve tolerancing, surrogated material evaluation, and enhanced surface treatments

  8. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Dalenberg, Jelle R.; Gutjar, Swetlana; ter Horst, Gert J.; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J.; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well ...

  9. Predicting Well-Being in Europe?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, M. Azhar

    2015-01-01

    Has the worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s reduced the subjective wellbeing function's predictive power? Regression models for happiness are estimated for the three first rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS); 2002, 2004 and 2006. Several explanatory variables are significant...... happiness. Nevertheless, 73% of the predictions in 2008 and 57% of predictions in 2010 were within the margin of error. These correct prediction percentages are not unusually low - rather they are slightly higher than before the crisis. It is surprising that happiness predictions are not adversely affected...... by the crisis. On the other hand, results are consistent with the adaption hypothesis. The same exercise is conducted applying life satisfaction instead of happiness, but we reject, against expectation, that (more transient) happiness is harder to predict than life satisfaction. Fifteen ESS countries surveyed...

  10. Occult pneumothoraces in Chinese patients with significant blunt chest trauma: radiological classification and proposed clinical significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ryan K L; Graham, Colin A; Yeung, Janice H H; Ahuja, Anil T; Rainer, Timothy H

    2012-12-01

    An occult pneumothorax (OP) is a pneumothorax not seen on a supine chest X-ray (CXR) but detected on abdominal or thoracic computed tomography (CT) scanning. With the increasing use of CT in the management of significantly injured trauma patients, more OPs are being detected. The aim of this study was to classify OPs diagnosed on thoracic CT (TCT) and correlate them with their clinical significance. Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected trauma registry data. Total 36 (N=36) consecutive significantly injured trauma patients admitted through the emergency department (ED) who sustained blunt chest trauma and underwent TCT between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2008 were included. OP was defined as the identification (by a consultant radiologist) of a pneumothorax on TCT that had not been detected on supine CXR. OPs were classified by laterality (unilateral/bilateral) and location (apical, basal, non apical/basal). The size of pneumothoraces, severity of injury [including number of associated thoracic injuries and injury severity score (ISS)], length of hospital stay and mortality were compared between groups. The need for tube thoracostomy and clinical outcome were also analysed. Patients with bilateral OPs (N=8) had significantly more associated thoracic injuries (median: 2 vs. 1, p=0.01), higher ISS (median: 35 vs. 23, p=0.02) and longer hospital stay (median: 20 days vs. 11 days, p=0.01) than those with a unilateral OP (N=28). Basal OPs (N=7) were significantly larger than apical (N=10) and non-apical/basal Ops (N=11). Basal OPs were associated with significantly more associated thoracic injuries (median: 2 vs. 1, p=0.01), higher ISS (median: 35 vs. 25, p=0.04) and longer hospital stays (median: 23 days vs. 17 days, p=0.02) than apical Ops, which had higher ISS (median: 35 vs. 25, p=0.04) and longer hospital stays (median: 23 days vs. 15 days, p=0.02) than non-apical/basal OPs. Non-apical/basal OPs were associated with more related injuries (median: 2

  11. Ocean eddies and climate predictability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirtman, Ben P; Perlin, Natalie; Siqueira, Leo

    2017-12-01

    A suite of coupled climate model simulations and experiments are used to examine how resolved mesoscale ocean features affect aspects of climate variability, air-sea interactions, and predictability. In combination with control simulations, experiments with the interactive ensemble coupling strategy are used to further amplify the role of the oceanic mesoscale field and the associated air-sea feedbacks and predictability. The basic intent of the interactive ensemble coupling strategy is to reduce the atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface, allowing an assessment of how noise affects the variability, and in this case, it is also used to diagnose predictability from the perspective of signal-to-noise ratios. The climate variability is assessed from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST) variance ratios, and it is shown that, unsurprisingly, mesoscale variability significantly increases SST variance. Perhaps surprising is the fact that the presence of mesoscale ocean features even further enhances the SST variance in the interactive ensemble simulation beyond what would be expected from simple linear arguments. Changes in the air-sea coupling between simulations are assessed using pointwise convective rainfall-SST and convective rainfall-SST tendency correlations and again emphasize how the oceanic mesoscale alters the local association between convective rainfall and SST. Understanding the possible relationships between the SST-forced signal and the weather noise is critically important in climate predictability. We use the interactive ensemble simulations to diagnose this relationship, and we find that the presence of mesoscale ocean features significantly enhances this link particularly in ocean eddy rich regions. Finally, we use signal-to-noise ratios to show that the ocean mesoscale activity increases model estimated predictability in terms of convective precipitation and atmospheric upper tropospheric circulation.

  12. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R; Gutjar, Swetlana; Ter Horst, Gert J; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  13. Seismology for rockburst prediction.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Beer, W

    2000-02-01

    Full Text Available project GAP409 presents a method (SOOTHSAY) for predicting larger mining induced seismic events in gold mines, as well as a pattern recognition algorithm (INDICATOR) for characterising the seismic response of rock to mining and inferring future... State. Defining the time series of a specific function on a catalogue as a prediction strategy, the algorithm currently has a success rate of 53% and 65%, respectively, of large events claimed as being predicted in these two cases, with uncertainties...

  14. Predictability of Conversation Partners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaguchi, Taro; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo; Masuda, Naoki

    2011-08-01

    Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information-theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, [C. Song , ScienceSCIEAS0036-8075 327, 1018 (2010)] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one’s conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one’s next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to a certain extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by long-tailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual’s predictability is correlated with the position of the individual in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community—in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles—tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.

  15. Predictability of Conversation Partners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taro Takaguchi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information-theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, [C. Song et al., Science 327, 1018 (2010SCIEAS0036-8075] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one’s conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one’s next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to a certain extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by long-tailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual’s predictability is correlated with the position of the individual in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community—in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles—tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.

  16. Is Time Predictability Quantifiable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoeberl, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Computer architects and researchers in the realtime domain start to investigate processors and architectures optimized for real-time systems. Optimized for real-time systems means time predictable, i.e., architectures where it is possible to statically derive a tight bound of the worst......-case execution time. To compare different approaches we would like to quantify time predictability. That means we need to measure time predictability. In this paper we discuss the different approaches for these measurements and conclude that time predictability is practically not quantifiable. We can only...... compare the worst-case execution time bounds of different architectures....

  17. Predicting scholars' scientific impact.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Mazloumian

    Full Text Available We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of ~150,000 scientists. Our results show that i among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately (r(2 = 0.80 for a 1-year prediction, P<0.001 but iii future citations of future work are hardly predictable.

  18. Clinical significance of acquired somatic mutations in aplastic anaemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, J C W; Mufti, G J

    2016-08-01

    Aplastic anaemia (AA) is frequently associated with other disorders of clonal haemopoiesis such as paroxysmal nocturnal haemoglobinuria (PNH), myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and T-large granular lymphocytosis. Certain clones may escape the immune attack within the bone marrow environment and proliferate and attain a survival advantage over normal haemopoietic stem cells, such as trisomy 8, loss of heterozygosity of short arm of chromosome 6 and del13q clones. Recently acquired somatic mutations (SM), excluding PNH clones, have been reported in around 20-25 % of patients with AA, which predispose to a higher risk of later malignant transformation to MDS/acute myeloid leukaemia. Furthermore, certain SM, such as ASXL1 and DNMT3A are associated with poor survival following immunosuppressive therapy, whereas PIGA, BCOR/BCORL1 predict for good response and survival. Further detailed and serial analysis of the immune signature in AA is needed to understand the pathogenetic basis for the presence of clones with SM in a significant proportion of patients.

  19. The prognostic significance of lymphatics in colorectal liver metastases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muralidharan, Vijayaragavan; Nguyen, Linh; Banting, Jonathan; Christophi, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Background. Colorectal Cancer (CRC) is the most common form of cancer diagnosed in Australia across both genders. Approximately, 40%-60% of patients with CRC develop metastasis, the liver being the most common site. Almost 70% of CRC mortality can be attributed to the development of liver metastasis. This study examines the pattern and density of lymphatics in colorectal liver metastases (CLM) as predictors of survival following hepatic resection for CLM. Methods. Patient tissue samples were obtained from the Victorian Cancer Biobank. Immunohistochemistry was used to examine the spatial differences in blood and lymphatic vessel densities between different regions within the tumor (CLM) and surrounding host tissue. Lymphatic vessel density (LVD) was assessed as a potential prognostic marker. Results. Patients with low lymphatic vessel density in the tumor centre, tumor periphery, and adjacent normal liver demonstrated a significant disease-free survival advantage compared to patients with high lymphatic vessel density (P = 0.01, P > 0.01, and P = 0.05, resp.). Lymphatic vessel density in the tumor centre and periphery and adjacent normal liver was an accurate predictive marker of disease-free survival (P = 0.05). Conclusion. Lymphatic vessel density in CLM appears to be an accurate predictor of recurrence and disease-free survival.

  20. The Prognostic Significance of Lymphatics in Colorectal Liver Metastases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijayaragavan Muralidharan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Colorectal Cancer (CRC is the most common form of cancer diagnosed in Australia across both genders. Approximately, 40%–60% of patients with CRC develop metastasis, the liver being the most common site. Almost 70% of CRC mortality can be attributed to the development of liver metastasis. This study examines the pattern and density of lymphatics in colorectal liver metastases (CLM as predictors of survival following hepatic resection for CLM. Methods. Patient tissue samples were obtained from the Victorian Cancer Biobank. Immunohistochemistry was used to examine the spatial differences in blood and lymphatic vessel densities between different regions within the tumor (CLM and surrounding host tissue. Lymphatic vessel density (LVD was assessed as a potential prognostic marker. Results. Patients with low lymphatic vessel density in the tumor centre, tumor periphery, and adjacent normal liver demonstrated a significant disease-free survival advantage compared to patients with high lymphatic vessel density (P=0.01, P>0.01, and P=0.05, resp.. Lymphatic vessel density in the tumor centre and periphery and adjacent normal liver was an accurate predictive marker of disease-free survival (P=0.05. Conclusion. Lymphatic vessel density in CLM appears to be an accurate predictor of recurrence and disease-free survival.

  1. Significance of Sarcopenia Evaluation in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuchida, Keiichi; Fujihara, Yuki; Hiroki, Jiro; Hakamata, Takahiro; Sakai, Ryohei; Nishida, Kota; Sudo, Koji; Tanaka, Komei; Hosaka, Yukio; Takahashi, Kazuyoshi; Oda, Hirotaka

    2018-01-27

    In patients with chronic heart failure (HF), the clinical importance of sarcopenia has been recognized in relation to disease severity, reduced exercise capacity, and adverse clinical outcome. Nevertheless, its impact on acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is still poorly understood. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is a technique for quantitatively analyzing muscle mass and the degree of sarcopenia. Fat-free mass index (FFMI) is a noninvasive and easily applicable marker of muscle mass.This was a prospective observational cohort study comprising 38 consecutive patients hospitalized for ADHF. Sarcopenia, derived from DXA, was defined as a skeletal muscle mass index (SMI) two standard deviations below the mean for healthy young subjects. FFMI (kg/m 2 ) was calculated as 7.38 + 0.02908 × urinary creatinine (mg/day) divided by the square of height (m 2 ).Sarcopenia was present in 52.6% of study patients. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels were significantly higher in ADHF patients with sarcopenia than in those without sarcopenia (1666 versus 429 pg/mL, P sarcopenia as a predictor of higher BNP level (OR = 18.4; 95% CI, 1.86-181.27; P = 0.013).Sarcopenia is associated with increased disease severity in ADHF. SMI based on DXA is potentially superior to FFMI in terms of predicting the degree of severity, but FFMI is also associated with ADHF severity.

  2. Prognostic significance of MR angiography in patients with cerebral infarction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Woong Jae; Kim, Jun Ho; Seo, Jeong Jin; Cho, Ki Hyun; Kim, Yun Hyeon; Kim, Jae Kyu; Kang, Heoung Keun

    1994-01-01

    This study was designed to evaluate the prognostic significance of Magnetic resonance angiography(MRA) in patients with cerebral infarction. Magnetic Resonance Imaging(MRI) and 2 dimensional or 3 dimensional Time-of-Flight MRA were performed subsequently in 83 patients with cerebral infarction proven by brain CT and clinical manifestations, using GE Signa Advantage 1.5 T. We classified the size of infarction on MRI as Extent I( 6 cm) and classified the intracranial vascular occlusion according to visualizations of intracranial vascular branches on MRA as Grade 0, Grade I, Grade II, Grade III. And we evaluated clinical outcomes of these patients according to Rankin's disability scale, compared with MRI and MRA. In 72 cases(86.8%), the larger the size of infarction on MRI, the more severe vascular occlusion on MRA, the worse the clinical outcomes were noted(p < 0.01). However, in 7 cases(8.4%) who showed huge cerebral infarction on MRI with low grade intracranial vascular occlusion on MRA, the clinical outcomes were improved. In 4 cases(4.8%) who noted small sized cerebral infarction on MRI with high grade vascular occlusion on MRA, the clinical outcomes were worsened. MRA provides additional useful information to that provided by MRI in predicting the prognosis of patients with cerebral infarction

  3. The radioecological significance of semi-natural ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, B.J.; Howard, D.C.

    1997-01-01

    The transfer of radiocaesium to many food products either produced in or harvested from semi-natural ecosystems is high compared with intensive agricultural areas. Radiocaesium contamination levels in semi-natural foods are highly variable and difficult to predict. Spatial analysis may help to explain some of the variability and give improved estimates of the total output of radiocaesium in food products produced or harvested from semi-natural ecosystems. Consumption of foodstuffs from semi-natural ecosystems can contribute significantly to radiocaesium ingestion by humans. The long effective half-lives that occur for some semi-natural products lead to an increase with time in their importance compared with agricultural products. In determining the importance of semi-natural food products, the diet needs to be considered for both the average population and for special groups who utilize these environments to a greater extent than normal. Effective countermeasures have been developed to reduce radiocaesium levels in some semi-natural products. (author)

  4. Torsional malalignment, how much significant in the trochanteric fractures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae Young; Lee, Yong Beom; Chang, Jun Dong; Lee, Sang Soo; Yoo, Jae Hyun; Chung, Kook Jin; Hwang, Ji Hyo

    2015-11-01

    The rotational alignment is definitely important in the long bones such as tibias and femurs. We also predict the importance of rotational alignment in the trochanteric fractures. So we measured torsional malalignment in trochanteric fracture and anlaysed their risk factors and their clinical significance. A total of 109 inpatients who had undergone internal fixation following trochanteric fracture and a postoperative pelvic CT scan between 2008 and 2013, with at least one year follow-up, were selected. Factors that affect torsional malalignment, such as age, gender, fracture stability, injured area, operative time, time of surgery after admission, and ASA status, were investigated. Factors that affect the patients' clinical results in malrotation, including ambulation time after surgery, postoperative complication rates, pain assessment of VAS one year postoperatively and Koval score, were also investigated. Of the 109 subjects, torsional malalignment was observed in 28 (25.7%) subjects with a mean torsional malalignment angle of 20.7° (range: -31.2° to 27.1°). Torsional malalignment risk factors were fracture stability (p=0.021) and operative time (p=0.043). In terms of the time to ambulation after surgery, the postoperative complication rates, and the VAS and Koval scores at one year postoperatively, no statistically significant difference was observed between the torsional malalignment patients and the non-deformity patients. In this study, 25.7% of the patients who had undergone internal fixation following trochanteric fracture experienced torsional malalignment. Major factors of the torsional malalignment were an unstable fracture and the consequent delay in the operative time. But the torsional malalignment was deemed to have no effect on clinical results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Dynamical significance of tides over the Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhagawati, Chirantan; Pandey, Suchita; Dandapat, Sumit; Chakraborty, Arun

    2018-06-01

    Tides play a significant role in the ocean surface circulations and vertical mixing thereby influencing the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) as well. This, in turn, plays an important role in the global circulation when used as a lower boundary condition in a global atmospheric general circulation model. Therefore in the present study, the dynamics of tides over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is investigated through numerical simulations using a high resolution (1/12°) Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Based on statistical analysis it is observed that incorporation of explicit tidal forcing improves the model performance in simulating the basin averaged monthly surface circulation features by 64% compared to the simulation without tides. The model simulates also Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) and SST realistically. The energy exchange between tidal oscillations and eddies leads to redistribution of surface kinetic energy density with a net decrease of 0.012 J m-3 in the western Bay and a net increase of 0.007 J m-3 in the eastern Bay. The tidal forcing also affects the potential energy anomaly and vertical mixing thereby leading to a fall in monthly MLD over the BoB. The mixing due to tides leads to a subsequent reduction in monthly SST and a corresponding reduction in surface heat exchange. These results from the numerical simulation using ROMS reveal that tides have a significant influence over the air-sea heat exchange which is the most important parameter for prediction of Tropical Cyclone frequency and its future variability over the BoB.

  6. The somatically significant dose, SSD, and analog of the GSD, the genetically significant dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beentjes, L.B.; Duijsings, J.H.

    1992-01-01

    The medical applications of radiation comprise three main fields namely: Diagnostic Radiology, Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine. With the new weighting factors of ICRP (IC91a) the effective dose due to medical applications can be established. I is common to separate the effective dose into the genetic part and the somatic part, SED. In dealing with gonad doses it is important to account for the age of the person at the time of exposure as this will influence the number of children still to be expected from that person. The resulting dose will then be called the genetically significant dose, GSD. In a similar fashion this age factor will be important in considering the chance of tumor induction. The age of patients differs considerably from the average age of the general population. This age difference has to be accounted for if a comparison is to be made with other sources of radiation. This justifies establishing a somatically significant dose, SSD. The reduction of the SED value to a SSD for the medical field due to this phenomenon is .6 for diagnostic radiology, .5 for nuclear medicine and .3 for radiotherapy. Also the extension to more organs at risk, which result in a larger number of weighting factors published by ICRP (IC91a) tends to lower the calculated effective doses. (author)

  7. Predicting mortality from human faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dykiert, Dominika; Bates, Timothy C; Gow, Alan J; Penke, Lars; Starr, John M; Deary, Ian J

    2012-01-01

    To investigate whether and to what extent mortality is predictable from facial photographs of older people. High-quality facial photographs of 292 members of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921, taken at the age of about 83 years, were rated in terms of apparent age, health, attractiveness, facial symmetry, intelligence, and well-being by 12 young-adult raters. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to study associations between these ratings and mortality during a 7-year follow-up period. All ratings had adequate reliability. Concurrent validity was found for facial symmetry and intelligence (as determined by correlations with actual measures of fluctuating asymmetry in the faces and Raven Standard Progressive Matrices score, respectively), but not for the other traits. Age as rated from facial photographs, adjusted for sex and chronological age, was a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% confidence interval = 1.12-1.65) and remained significant even after controlling for concurrent, objectively measured health and cognitive ability, and the other ratings. Health as rated from facial photographs, adjusted for sex and chronological age, significantly predicted mortality (hazard ratio = 0.81, 95% confidence interval = 0.67-0.99) but not after adjusting for rated age or objectively measured health and cognition. Rated attractiveness, symmetry, intelligence, and well-being were not significantly associated with mortality risk. Rated age of the face is a significant predictor of mortality risk among older people, with predictive value over and above that of objective or rated health status and cognitive ability.

  8. Introduction: Long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranger, G.

    2003-01-01

    not only in the case of the topics of this workshop but also in other cases because the corrosion resistance of a given material is not an intrinsic property. In case of long term disposal it is essential to have very accurate data for modelling and predicting the behavior of materials engaged for the deep storage of high level nuclear wastes. It is the purpose of this workshop to bring together articles which have a significant contribution to make, and which take into account all the parameters of importance so that appropriate decision can be taken

  9. Detecting failure of climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2016-01-01

    The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty1, 2. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies3. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

  10. Adult Neurogenesis in the Mammalian Brain: Significant Answers and Significant Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ming, Guo-li; Song, Hongjun

    2011-01-01

    Summary Adult neurogenesis, a process of generating functional neurons from adult neural precursors, occurs throughout life in restricted brain regions in mammals. The past decade has witnessed tremendous progress in addressing questions related to almost every aspect of adult neurogenesis in the mammalian brain. Here we review major advances in our understanding of adult mammalian neurogenesis in the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus and from the subventricular zone of the lateral ventricle, the rostral migratory stream to the olfactory bulb. We highlight emerging principles that have significant implications for stem cell biology, developmental neurobiology, neural plasticity, and disease mechanisms. We also discuss remaining questions related to adult neural stem cells and their niches, underlying regulatory mechanisms and potential functions of newborn neurons in the adult brain. Building upon the recent progress and aided by new technologies, the adult neurogenesis field is poised to leap forward in the next decade. PMID:21609825

  11. Integrative approach to pre-operative determination of clinically significant prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shatylko T.V.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim: improvement of early diagnostics of prostate cancer by developing a technique, which makes possible to predict its clinical significance in outpatient setting before initiation of invasive procedures. Material and Methods. Clinical data of 398 patients who underwent transrectal prostate biopsy in 2012-2014 in SSMU S. R. Mirotvortsev Clinical Hospital, was used to build an artificial neural network, while its output allowed to determine whether the tumour corresponds to Epstein criteria and which D'Amico risk group it belongs to. Internal validation was performed on 80 patients, who underwent prostate biopsy in September 2014 — December 2014. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of artificial neural network were calculated. Results. Accuracy of predicting adenocarcinoma presence in biopsy specimen was 93,75%; accuracy of predicting whether the cancer meets active surveillance criteria was 90%. Accuracy of predicting T stage (T1c, T2a, T2b, T2cwas 57,1%. Prediction of D'Amico risk group was accurate in 70% of cases; for low-risk cancer accuracy was 81,2%. Conclusion. Artificial neural networks may be responsible for prostate cancer risk stratification and determination of its clinical significance prior to biopsy.

  12. The Prediction Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, M.; Kurz, S.; Lindner, I.; Napel, S.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players’ informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player i’s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations

  13. Predictability of Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Sekreter

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Predictability of stock returns has been shown by empirical studies over time. This article collects the most important theories on forecasting stock returns and investigates the factors that affecting behavior of the stocks’ prices and the market as a whole. Estimation of the factors and the way of estimation are the key issues of predictability of stock returns.

  14. Predicting AD conversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yawu; Mattila, Jussi; Ruiz, Miguel �ngel Mu�oz

    2013-01-01

    To compare the accuracies of predicting AD conversion by using a decision support system (PredictAD tool) and current research criteria of prodromal AD as identified by combinations of episodic memory impairment of hippocampal type and visual assessment of medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) on MRI...

  15. Predicting Free Recalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laming, Donald

    2006-01-01

    This article reports some calculations on free-recall data from B. Murdock and J. Metcalfe (1978), with vocal rehearsal during the presentation of a list. Given the sequence of vocalizations, with the stimuli inserted in their proper places, it is possible to predict the subsequent sequence of recalls--the predictions taking the form of a…

  16. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  17. Significance of a diagnosis of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance for Papanicolaou smears in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, J T; Wang, H H

    2001-04-25

    The current study was conducted to determine the significance of a diagnosis of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women. The reports for all Papanicolaou (Pap) smears viewed in the study institution's cytology laboratory over a 6-month period were reviewed. Women were divided into premenopausal (age ages 46-54 years), and postmenopausal (age > or = 55 years) categories. Slide review and 2-year follow-up were obtained for selected cases diagnosed as ASCUS. ASCUS cases among the perimenopausal women were compared with an age-matched control group. The total number of abnormal Pap smears in the premenopausal, perimenopausal, and postmenopausal categories were 770 (6.8%), 104 (4.3%), and 67 (2.9%), with 482, 83, and 41 diagnoses of ASCUS, respectively. The ratio of ASCUS to squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL) was 2.2 overall and 1.9, 7.5, and 4.1, respectively, for each group (P ASCUS cases appeared to have a higher percentage of nuclear-cytoplasmic ratio increase and nuclear membrane irregularities compared with the other categories (P = 0.03 and P = 0.02, respectively) and the perimenopausal group was found to have more ASCUS in metaplastic cells (P = 0.03). In perimenopausal women, slides diagnosed as ASCUS demonstrated more air-drying artifact than the control group (P = 0.004) but had less obvious atrophy (P = 0.01). Despite a decreased abnormality rate with increasing age, the results of the current study show that the perimenopausal and postmenopausal groups appear to have elevated ASCUS-to-SIL ratios. ASCUS appears to have a particularly low positive predictive value for SIL in perimenopausal women, and therefore most likely is overcalled in this age group. This may be attributable in part to air-drying artifact and subtle atrophic changes.

  18. Evaluating prediction uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKay, M.D.

    1995-03-01

    The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

  19. Ground motion predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loux, P C [Environmental Research Corporation, Alexandria, VA (United States)

    1969-07-01

    Nuclear generated ground motion is defined and then related to the physical parameters that cause it. Techniques employed for prediction of ground motion peak amplitude, frequency spectra and response spectra are explored, with initial emphasis on the analysis of data collected at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). NTS postshot measurements are compared with pre-shot predictions. Applicability of these techniques to new areas, for example, Plowshare sites, must be questioned. Fortunately, the Atomic Energy Commission is sponsoring complementary studies to improve prediction capabilities primarily in new locations outside the NTS region. Some of these are discussed in the light of anomalous seismic behavior, and comparisons are given showing theoretical versus experimental results. In conclusion, current ground motion prediction techniques are applied to events off the NTS. Predictions are compared with measurements for the event Faultless and for the Plowshare events, Gasbuggy, Cabriolet, and Buggy I. (author)

  20. Ground motion predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loux, P.C.

    1969-01-01

    Nuclear generated ground motion is defined and then related to the physical parameters that cause it. Techniques employed for prediction of ground motion peak amplitude, frequency spectra and response spectra are explored, with initial emphasis on the analysis of data collected at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). NTS postshot measurements are compared with pre-shot predictions. Applicability of these techniques to new areas, for example, Plowshare sites, must be questioned. Fortunately, the Atomic Energy Commission is sponsoring complementary studies to improve prediction capabilities primarily in new locations outside the NTS region. Some of these are discussed in the light of anomalous seismic behavior, and comparisons are given showing theoretical versus experimental results. In conclusion, current ground motion prediction techniques are applied to events off the NTS. Predictions are compared with measurements for the event Faultless and for the Plowshare events, Gasbuggy, Cabriolet, and Buggy I. (author)

  1. The Significance Mild Renal Dysfunction in Chronic Heart Failure ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a major public health concern. Prediction models in heart failure have employed echocardiography and other advanced laboratory parameters in predicting the risk of mortality.However, most of the patients in the resource poor economies still do not have easy access to these advanced ...

  2. Structural prediction in aphasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tessa Warren

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable evidence that young healthy comprehenders predict the structure of upcoming material, and that their processing is facilitated when they encounter material matching those predictions (e.g., Staub & Clifton, 2006; Yoshida, Dickey & Sturt, 2013. However, less is known about structural prediction in aphasia. There is evidence that lexical prediction may be spared in aphasia (Dickey et al., 2014; Love & Webb, 1977; cf. Mack et al, 2013. However, predictive mechanisms supporting facilitated lexical access may not necessarily support structural facilitation. Given that many people with aphasia (PWA exhibit syntactic deficits (e.g. Goodglass, 1993, PWA with such impairments may not engage in structural prediction. However, recent evidence suggests that some PWA may indeed predict upcoming structure (Hanne, Burchert, De Bleser, & Vashishth, 2015. Hanne et al. tracked the eyes of PWA (n=8 with sentence-comprehension deficits while they listened to reversible subject-verb-object (SVO and object-verb-subject (OVS sentences in German, in a sentence-picture matching task. Hanne et al. manipulated case and number marking to disambiguate the sentences’ structure. Gazes to an OVS or SVO picture during the unfolding of a sentence were assumed to indicate prediction of the structure congruent with that picture. According to this measure, the PWA’s structural prediction was impaired compared to controls, but they did successfully predict upcoming structure when morphosyntactic cues were strong and unambiguous. Hanne et al.’s visual-world evidence is suggestive, but their forced-choice sentence-picture matching task places tight constraints on possible structural predictions. Clearer evidence of structural prediction would come from paradigms where the content of upcoming material is not as constrained. The current study used self-paced reading study to examine structural prediction among PWA in less constrained contexts. PWA (n=17 who

  3. Predicting steam generator crevice chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, G.; Strati, G.

    2006-01-01

    'Full text:' Corrosion of steam cycle components produces insoluble material, mostly iron oxides, that are transported to the steam generator (SG) via the feedwater and deposited on internal surfaces such as the tubes, tube support plates and the tubesheet. The build up of these corrosion products over time can lead to regions of restricted flow with water chemistry that may be significantly different, and potentially more corrosive to SG tube material, than the bulk steam generator water chemistry. The aim of the present work is to predict SG crevice chemistry using experimentation and modelling as part of AECL's overall strategy for steam generator life management. Hideout-return experiments are performed under CANDU steam generator conditions to assess the accumulation of impurities in hideout, and return from, model crevices. The results are used to validate the ChemSolv model that predicts steam generator crevice impurity concentrations, and high temperature pH, based on process parameters (e.g., heat flux, primary side temperature) and blowdown water chemistry. The model has been incorporated into ChemAND, AECL's system health monitoring software for chemistry monitoring, analysis and diagnostics that has been installed at two domestic and one international CANDU station. ChemAND provides the station chemists with the only method to predict SG crevice chemistry. In one recent application, the software has been used to evaluate the crevice chemistry based on the elevated, but balanced, SG bulk water impurity concentrations present during reactor startup, in order to reduce hold times. The present paper will describe recent hideout-return experiments that are used for the validation of the ChemSolv model, station experience using the software, and improvements to predict the crevice electrochemical potential that will permit station staff to ensure that the SG tubes are in the 'safe operating zone' predicted by Lu (AECL). (author)

  4. Predicting outcome of status epilepticus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitinger, M; Kalss, G; Rohracher, A; Pilz, G; Novak, H; Höfler, J; Deak, I; Kuchukhidze, G; Dobesberger, J; Wakonig, A; Trinka, E

    2015-08-01

    Status epilepticus (SE) is a frequent neurological emergency complicated by high mortality and often poor functional outcome in survivors. The aim of this study was to review available clinical scores to predict outcome. Literature review. PubMed Search terms were "score", "outcome", and "status epilepticus" (April 9th 2015). Publications with abstracts available in English, no other language restrictions, or any restrictions concerning investigated patients were included. Two scores were identified: "Status Epilepticus Severity Score--STESS" and "Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE--EMSE". A comprehensive comparison of test parameters concerning performance, options, and limitations was performed. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE allows detailed individualization of risk factors and is significantly superior to STESS in a retrospective explorative study. In particular, EMSE is very good at detection of good and bad outcome, whereas STESS detecting bad outcome is limited by a ceiling effect and uncertainty of correct cutoff value. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE can be adapted to different regions in the world and to advances in medicine, as new data emerge. In addition, we designed a reporting standard for status epilepticus to enhance acquisition and communication of outcome relevant data. A data acquisition sheet used from patient admission in emergency room, from the EEG lab to intensive care unit, is provided for optimized data collection. Status Epilepticus Severity Score is easy to perform and predicts bad outcome, but has a low predictive value for good outcomes. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE is superior to STESS in predicting good or bad outcome but needs marginally more time to perform. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE may prove very useful for risk stratification in interventional studies and is recommended for individual outcome prediction. Prospective validation in different cohorts is needed for EMSE, whereas

  5. Audiovisual biofeedback improves motion prediction accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollock, Sean; Lee, Danny; Keall, Paul; Kim, Taeho

    2013-04-01

    The accuracy of motion prediction, utilized to overcome the system latency of motion management radiotherapy systems, is hampered by irregularities present in the patients' respiratory pattern. Audiovisual (AV) biofeedback has been shown to reduce respiratory irregularities. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that AV biofeedback improves the accuracy of motion prediction. An AV biofeedback system combined with real-time respiratory data acquisition and MR images were implemented in this project. One-dimensional respiratory data from (1) the abdominal wall (30 Hz) and (2) the thoracic diaphragm (5 Hz) were obtained from 15 healthy human subjects across 30 studies. The subjects were required to breathe with and without the guidance of AV biofeedback during each study. The obtained respiratory signals were then implemented in a kernel density estimation prediction algorithm. For each of the 30 studies, five different prediction times ranging from 50 to 1400 ms were tested (150 predictions performed). Prediction error was quantified as the root mean square error (RMSE); the RMSE was calculated from the difference between the real and predicted respiratory data. The statistical significance of the prediction results was determined by the Student's t-test. Prediction accuracy was considerably improved by the implementation of AV biofeedback. Of the 150 respiratory predictions performed, prediction accuracy was improved 69% (103/150) of the time for abdominal wall data, and 78% (117/150) of the time for diaphragm data. The average reduction in RMSE due to AV biofeedback over unguided respiration was 26% (p biofeedback improves prediction accuracy. This would result in increased efficiency of motion management techniques affected by system latencies used in radiotherapy.

  6. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  7. Necrotizing pneumonia: CT findings and its clinical significance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Hong Suk; Im, Jung Gi; Ryoo, Jae Wook; Yeon, Kyung Mo; Han, Man Chung

    1995-01-01

    To analyze CT and follow-up chest radiographic findings in patients with necrotizing pneumonia and to evaluate clinical significance of the extent of necrosis. We reviewed medical records and retrospectively analysed CT scans and follow-up chest radiographs of 22 patients with necrotizing pneumonia, confirmed by biopsy (n = 7) and culture (n = 15). Inclusion criteria for necrotizing pneumonia was necrotic low attenuation, with or without cavitation on postcontrast enhanced CT scan. The study group included 15 men and seven women, aged 11-66 years (average: 47 years). The pathogens of necrotizing pneumonia were Klebsiella spp (n = 7), Enterobacter spp (n = 5), Actinomyces spp (n = 4), Pseudomonas spp (n = 4), Nocardia spp (n = 4), and others (n = 5). Average duration of pneumonia was 4.1 months. On CT scan, pneumonic consolidations were well-marginated in 14 patients and there were cavities on initial CT scan in 16 cases. Margins of the necrotic portion on CT scan were well-demarcated in majority of the patients (16/22). Low attenuation areas on initial CT scan resulted in cavitation, fibrosis and volume loss as shown on follow-up chest radiographs. The larger the necrotic areas on CT, the more the volume loss was. CT findings of necrotizing pneumonia were well-marginated air-space consolidation with low attenuation area, with or without cavity. The extent of necrotic area was closely related with the degree of fibrotic change later on. CT is important tool for diagnosis and prediction of parenchymal damage in necrotizing pneumonia

  8. Selenium: environmental significance, pollution, and biological treatment technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Lea Chua; Nancharaiah, Yarlagadda V; van Hullebusch, Eric D; Lens, Piet N L

    2016-01-01

    Selenium is an essential trace element needed for all living organisms. Despite its essentiality, selenium is a potential toxic element to natural ecosystems due to its bioaccumulation potential. Though selenium is found naturally in the earth's crust, especially in carbonate rocks and volcanic and sedimentary soils, about 40% of the selenium emissions to atmospheric and aquatic environments are caused by various industrial activities such as mining-related operations. In recent years, advances in water quality and pollution monitoring have shown that selenium is a contaminant of potential environmental concern. This has practical implications on industry to achieve the stringent selenium regulatory discharge limit of 5μgSeL(-1) for selenium containing wastewaters set by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Over the last few decades, various technologies have been developed for the treatment of selenium-containing wastewaters. Biological selenium reduction has emerged as the leading technology for removing selenium from wastewaters since it offers a cheaper alternative compared to physico-chemical treatments and is suitable for treating dilute and variable selenium-laden wastewaters. Moreover, biological treatment has the advantage of forming elemental selenium nanospheres which exhibit unique optical and spectral properties for various industrial applications, i.e. medical, electrical, and manufacturing processes. However, despite the advances in biotechnology employing selenium reduction, there are still several challenges, particularly in achieving stringent discharge limits, the long-term stability of biogenic selenium and predicting the fate of bioreduced selenium in the environment. This review highlights the significance of selenium in the environment, health, and industry and biotechnological advances made in the treatment of selenium contaminated wastewaters. The challenges and future perspectives are overviewed considering recent

  9. Prediction ranges. Annual review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parker, J.C.; Tharp, W.H.; Spiro, P.S.; Keng, K.; Angastiniotis, M.; Hachey, L.T.

    1988-01-01

    Prediction ranges equip the planner with one more tool for improved assessment of the outcome of a course of action. One of their major uses is in financial evaluations, where corporate policy requires the performance of uncertainty analysis for large projects. This report gives an overview of the uses of prediction ranges, with examples; and risks and uncertainties in growth, inflation, and interest and exchange rates. Prediction ranges and standard deviations of 80% and 50% probability are given for various economic indicators in Ontario, Canada, and the USA, as well as for foreign exchange rates and Ontario Hydro interest rates. An explanatory note on probability is also included. 23 tabs.

  10. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  11. Protein Sorting Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    and drawbacks of each of these approaches is described through many examples of methods that predict secretion, integration into membranes, or subcellular locations in general. The aim of this chapter is to provide a user-level introduction to the field with a minimum of computational theory.......Many computational methods are available for predicting protein sorting in bacteria. When comparing them, it is important to know that they can be grouped into three fundamentally different approaches: signal-based, global-property-based and homology-based prediction. In this chapter, the strengths...

  12. 'Red Flag' Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Andersen, Torben Juul; Tveterås, Sigbjørn

    -generation prediction markets and outline its unique features as a third-generation prediction market. It is argued that frontline employees gain deep insights when they execute operational activities on an ongoing basis in the organization. The experiential learning from close interaction with internal and external......This conceptual article introduces a new way to predict firm performance based on aggregation of sensing among frontline employees about changes in operational capabilities to update strategic action plans and generate innovations. We frame the approach in the context of first- and second...

  13. Towards Predictive Association Theories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Tsivintzelis, Ioannis; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    2011-01-01

    Association equations of state like SAFT, CPA and NRHB have been previously applied to many complex mixtures. In this work we focus on two of these models, the CPA and the NRHB equations of state and the emphasis is on the analysis of their predictive capabilities for a wide range of applications....... We use the term predictive in two situations: (i) with no use of binary interaction parameters, and (ii) multicomponent calculations using binary interaction parameters based solely on binary data. It is shown that the CPA equation of state can satisfactorily predict CO2–water–glycols–alkanes VLE...

  14. Prediction of intermetallic compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkhanov, Gennady S; Kiselyova, N N

    2009-01-01

    The problems of predicting not yet synthesized intermetallic compounds are discussed. It is noted that the use of classical physicochemical analysis in the study of multicomponent metallic systems is faced with the complexity of presenting multidimensional phase diagrams. One way of predicting new intermetallics with specified properties is the use of modern processing technology with application of teaching of image recognition by the computer. The algorithms used most often in these methods are briefly considered and the efficiency of their use for predicting new compounds is demonstrated.

  15. Prognostic significance of CA 125 and TPS levels after 3 chemotherapy courses in ovarian cancer patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dalen, A; Favier, J; Burges, A; Hasholzner, U; de Bruijn, HWA; Dobler-Girdziunaite, D; Dombi, VH; Fink, D; Giai, M; McGing, P; Harlozinska, A; Kainz, C; Markowska, J; Molina, R; Sturgeon, C; Bowman, A; Einarsson, R

    2000-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate the prognostic significance of and predictive value for survival of CA 125 and TPS levels after three chemotherapy courses in ovarian cancer patients. Methods. We analyzed in a prospective multicenter study the 1- and 2-year overall survival (OS) in ovarian carcinoma patients.

  16. Prognostic significance of clinical seizures after cardiac arrest and target temperature management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lybeck, Anna; Friberg, Hans; Aneman, Anders

    2017-01-01

    AIM: Clinical seizures are common after cardiac arrest and predictive of a poor neurological outcome. Seizures may be myoclonic, tonic-clonic or a combination of seizure types. This study reports the incidence and prognostic significance of clinical seizures in the target temperature management (...

  17. Field Dependence/Independence Cognitive Styles: Are They Significant at Different Levels of Vocabulary Knowledge?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostampour, Mohammad; Niroomand, Seyyedeh Mitra

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive styles influence the performance of language learners and can predict their success in the process of language learning. Considering field dependence/independence cognitive styles, this study aims at determining if they are significant in English vocabulary knowledge. A number of EFL university students took part in the study. The…

  18. Impact of Lesion Length on Functional Significance in Intermediate Coronary Lesions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morteza Safi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The present study aimed at assessing the role of lesion length in predicting Fractional Flow Reserve (FFR value for physiological evaluation of intermediate coronary lesions.Methods: In the current study, 68 patients with 83 coronary lesions were enrolled. All of the patients in this study underwent routine coronary angiography, according to appropriate indications. To evaluate physiologically significant intermediate coronary stenosis (defined between 40% and 70% on visual estimation, the Fractional Flow Reserve (FFR study was performed and the Quantitative Coronary Angiography (QCA data were also assessed for measurement of lesion length. The correlation between QCA data and FFR values was also examined.Results: Eighty-three lesions were evaluated from 68 patients. Stenosis was considered physiologically significant when FFR was lower than 0.75. The FFR was significant in twelve lesions (14.5%. There was a negative correlation between FFR value and lesion length (r = -0.294 and P = 0.013. Moreover, lesion length in physiologically significant FFR group (21.07  ± 6.9 was greater than that of the non-significant FFR group (15.23 ± 6.5 (P value < 0.05. Furthermore, the correlation between QCA data and FFR values was also investigated, yet, there was only a positive correlation between FFR and Minimum Luminal Diameter (MLD values (r = 0.248 and P value = 0.04. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve analysis for predicting the significant FFR value demonstrated that a lesion length greater than 17.5 mm was the best cut-off point for prediction of the significant FFR value with acceptable sensitivity and specificity of 83.3% and 68.8%, respectively.Conclusions: There is a negative correlation between lesion length and FFR value in intermediate coronary lesions. In addition, a lesion length greater than 17.5 mm is the best cut- off point for prediction of significant FFR values.

  19. Wind Power Prediction Considering Nonlinear Atmospheric Disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yagang Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the effect of nonlinear atmospheric disturbances on wind power prediction. A Lorenz system is introduced as an atmospheric disturbance model. Three new improved wind forecasting models combined with a Lorenz comprehensive disturbance are put forward in this study. Firstly, we define the form of the Lorenz disturbance variable and the wind speed perturbation formula. Then, different artificial neural network models are used to verify the new idea and obtain better wind speed predictions. Finally we separately use the original and improved wind speed series to predict the related wind power. This proves that the corrected wind speed provides higher precision wind power predictions. This research presents a totally new direction in the wind prediction field and has profound theoretical research value and practical guiding significance.

  20. BDDCS Class Prediction for New Molecular Entities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broccatelli, Fabio; Cruciani, Gabriele; Benet, Leslie Z.

    2012-01-01

    M) predicts high versus low intestinal permeability rate, and vice versa, at least when uptake transporters or paracellular transport is not involved. We recently published a collection of over 900 marketed drugs classified for BDDCS. We suggest that a reliable model for predicting BDDCS class, integrated...... chemistry compounds (over 30,000 chemicals). Based on this application, we suggest that solubility, and not permeability, is the major difference between NMEs and drugs. We anticipate that the forecast of BDDCS categories in early drug discovery may lead to a significant R&D cost reduction....... descriptors calculated or derived from the VolSurf+ software. For each molecule, a probability of BDDCS class membership was given, based on predicted EoM, FDA solubility (FDAS) and their confidence scores. The accuracy in predicting FDAS was 78% in training and 77% in validation, while for EoM prediction...

  1. Extending Theory-Based Quantitative Predictions to New Health Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brick, Leslie Ann D; Velicer, Wayne F; Redding, Colleen A; Rossi, Joseph S; Prochaska, James O

    2016-04-01

    Traditional null hypothesis significance testing suffers many limitations and is poorly adapted to theory testing. A proposed alternative approach, called Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions, uses effect size estimates and confidence intervals to directly test predictions based on theory. This paper replicates findings from previous smoking studies and extends the approach to diet and sun protection behaviors using baseline data from a Transtheoretical Model behavioral intervention (N = 5407). Effect size predictions were developed using two methods: (1) applying refined effect size estimates from previous smoking research or (2) using predictions developed by an expert panel. Thirteen of 15 predictions were confirmed for smoking. For diet, 7 of 14 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 6 of 16 using expert panel predictions. For sun protection, 3 of 11 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 5 of 19 using expert panel predictions. Expert panel predictions and smoking-based predictions poorly predicted effect sizes for diet and sun protection constructs. Future studies should aim to use previous empirical data to generate predictions whenever possible. The best results occur when there have been several iterations of predictions for a behavior, such as with smoking, demonstrating that expected values begin to converge on the population effect size. Overall, the study supports necessity in strengthening and revising theory with empirical data.

  2. Filtering and prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Fristedt, B; Krylov, N

    2007-01-01

    Filtering and prediction is about observing moving objects when the observations are corrupted by random errors. The main focus is then on filtering out the errors and extracting from the observations the most precise information about the object, which itself may or may not be moving in a somewhat random fashion. Next comes the prediction step where, using information about the past behavior of the object, one tries to predict its future path. The first three chapters of the book deal with discrete probability spaces, random variables, conditioning, Markov chains, and filtering of discrete Markov chains. The next three chapters deal with the more sophisticated notions of conditioning in nondiscrete situations, filtering of continuous-space Markov chains, and of Wiener process. Filtering and prediction of stationary sequences is discussed in the last two chapters. The authors believe that they have succeeded in presenting necessary ideas in an elementary manner without sacrificing the rigor too much. Such rig...

  3. CMAQ predicted concentration files

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ predicted ozone. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Gantt, B., G. Sarwar, J. Xing, H. Simon, D. Schwede, B. Hutzell, R. Mathur, and A....

  4. Methane prediction in collieries

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Creedy, DP

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The primary aim of the project was to assess the current status of research on methane emission prediction for collieries in South Africa in comparison with methods used and advances achieved elsewhere in the world....

  5. Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > Outreach > Publications > Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Tropics Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Forecast Climate Diagnostics

  6. CMAQ predicted concentration files

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — model predicted concentrations. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Muñiz-Unamunzaga, M., R. Borge, G. Sarwar, B. Gantt, D. de la Paz, C....

  7. Genomic prediction using subsampling

    OpenAIRE

    Xavier, Alencar; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William; Rainey, Katy Martin

    2017-01-01

    Background Genome-wide assisted selection is a critical tool for the?genetic improvement of plants and animals. Whole-genome regression models in Bayesian framework represent the main family of prediction methods. Fitting such models with a large number of observations involves a prohibitive computational burden. We propose the use of subsampling bootstrap Markov chain in genomic prediction. Such method consists of fitting whole-genome regression models by subsampling observations in each rou...

  8. Predicting Online Purchasing Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    W.R BUCKINX; D. VAN DEN POEL

    2003-01-01

    This empirical study investigates the contribution of different types of predictors to the purchasing behaviour at an online store. We use logit modelling to predict whether or not a purchase is made during the next visit to the website using both forward and backward variable-selection techniques, as well as Furnival and Wilson’s global score search algorithm to find the best subset of predictors. We contribute to the literature by using variables from four different categories in predicting...

  9. Empirical Flutter Prediction Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-03-05

    been used in this way to discover species or subspecies of animals, and to discover different types of voter or comsumer requiring different persuasions...respect to behavior or performance or response variables. Once this were done, corresponding clusters might be sought among descriptive or predictive or...jump in a response. The first sort of usage does not apply to the flutter prediction problem. Here the types of behavior are the different kinds of

  10. Stuck pipe prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alzahrani, Majed

    2016-03-10

    Disclosed are various embodiments for a prediction application to predict a stuck pipe. A linear regression model is generated from hook load readings at corresponding bit depths. A current hook load reading at a current bit depth is compared with a normal hook load reading from the linear regression model. A current hook load greater than a normal hook load for a given bit depth indicates the likelihood of a stuck pipe.

  11. Stuck pipe prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alzahrani, Majed; Alsolami, Fawaz; Chikalov, Igor; Algharbi, Salem; Aboudi, Faisal; Khudiri, Musab

    2016-01-01

    Disclosed are various embodiments for a prediction application to predict a stuck pipe. A linear regression model is generated from hook load readings at corresponding bit depths. A current hook load reading at a current bit depth is compared with a normal hook load reading from the linear regression model. A current hook load greater than a normal hook load for a given bit depth indicates the likelihood of a stuck pipe.

  12. Genomic prediction using subsampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Alencar; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William; Rainey, Katy Martin

    2017-03-24

    Genome-wide assisted selection is a critical tool for the genetic improvement of plants and animals. Whole-genome regression models in Bayesian framework represent the main family of prediction methods. Fitting such models with a large number of observations involves a prohibitive computational burden. We propose the use of subsampling bootstrap Markov chain in genomic prediction. Such method consists of fitting whole-genome regression models by subsampling observations in each round of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We evaluated the effect of subsampling bootstrap on prediction and computational parameters. Across datasets, we observed an optimal subsampling proportion of observations around 50% with replacement, and around 33% without replacement. Subsampling provided a substantial decrease in computation time, reducing the time to fit the model by half. On average, losses on predictive properties imposed by subsampling were negligible, usually below 1%. For each dataset, an optimal subsampling point that improves prediction properties was observed, but the improvements were also negligible. Combining subsampling with Gibbs sampling is an interesting ensemble algorithm. The investigation indicates that the subsampling bootstrap Markov chain algorithm substantially reduces computational burden associated with model fitting, and it may slightly enhance prediction properties.

  13. Prediction of Metastasis Using Second Harmonic Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-01

    small but statistically significant difference in average F/B of treated US patients versus untreated Dutch patients. Fig. 1. Display of all...predictive ability of models incorporating F/B using a multivariate linear model, but this time applying the analysis to the entire ER+ and ER- cohort. As...AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0040 TITLE: Prediction of Metastasis Using Second Harmonic Generation PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Edward Brown

  14. Significance of Microbiology in Porous Hydrocarbon Related Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Augsburger, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    This thesis explores bio-mediated processes in geotechnical and petroleum engineering. Worldwide energy consumption is rapidly increasing as the world population and per-capita consumption rises. The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) predicts

  15. Noninvasive scoring system for significant inflammation related to chronic hepatitis B

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Mei-Zhu; Ye, Linglong; Jin, Li-Xin; Ren, Yan-Dan; Yu, Xiao-Fang; Liu, Xiao-Bin; Zhang, Ru-Mian; Fang, Kuangnan; Pan, Jin-Shui

    2017-03-01

    Although a liver stiffness measurement-based model can precisely predict significant intrahepatic inflammation, transient elastography is not commonly available in a primary care center. Additionally, high body mass index and bilirubinemia have notable effects on the accuracy of transient elastography. The present study aimed to create a noninvasive scoring system for the prediction of intrahepatic inflammatory activity related to chronic hepatitis B, without the aid of transient elastography. A total of 396 patients with chronic hepatitis B were enrolled in the present study. Liver biopsies were performed, liver histology was scored using the Scheuer scoring system, and serum markers and liver function were investigated. Inflammatory activity scoring models were constructed for both hepatitis B envelope antigen (+) and hepatitis B envelope antigen (-) patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve were 86.00%, 84.80%, 62.32%, 95.39%, and 0.9219, respectively, in the hepatitis B envelope antigen (+) group and 91.89%, 89.86%, 70.83%, 97.64%, and 0.9691, respectively, in the hepatitis B envelope antigen (-) group. Significant inflammation related to chronic hepatitis B can be predicted with satisfactory accuracy by using our logistic regression-based scoring system.

  16. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....

  17. MHC Class II epitope predictive algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lund, Ole; Buus, S

    2010-01-01

    Major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC-II) molecules sample peptides from the extracellular space, allowing the immune system to detect the presence of foreign microbes from this compartment. To be able to predict the immune response to given pathogens, a number of methods have been...... developed to predict peptide-MHC binding. However, few methods other than the pioneering TEPITOPE/ProPred method have been developed for MHC-II. Despite recent progress in method development, the predictive performance for MHC-II remains significantly lower than what can be obtained for MHC-I. One reason...

  18. Calorimeter prediction based on multiple exponentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.K.; Bracken, D.S.

    2002-01-01

    Calorimetry allows very precise measurements of nuclear material to be carried out, but it also requires relatively long measurement times to do so. The ability to accurately predict the equilibrium response of a calorimeter would significantly reduce the amount of time required for calorimetric assays. An algorithm has been developed that is effective at predicting the equilibrium response. This multi-exponential prediction algorithm is based on an iterative technique using commercial fitting routines that fit a constant plus a variable number of exponential terms to calorimeter data. Details of the implementation and the results of trials on a large number of calorimeter data sets will be presented

  19. Development of anomalous detection using movie prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakakibara, Yoji; Demachi, Kazuyuki; Kawai, Masaki; Chhatluli, Ritu; Kamiaka, Kazuma

    2012-01-01

    In this research, the new method to predict the near-future of the movie images captured by video camera based on the combination of the Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and the Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA). In the normal condition of machines, the real-time captured movie is supposed to correspond to the predicted one. If the error between the both becomes significantly large, it may suggest some anomalous motion of the machines. So the movie prediction method has a possibility of the sensitive anomalous detection system. (author)

  20. Seismic activity prediction using computational intelligence techniques in northern Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asim, Khawaja M.; Awais, Muhammad; Martínez-Álvarez, F.; Iqbal, Talat

    2017-10-01

    Earthquake prediction study is carried out for the region of northern Pakistan. The prediction methodology includes interdisciplinary interaction of seismology and computational intelligence. Eight seismic parameters are computed based upon the past earthquakes. Predictive ability of these eight seismic parameters is evaluated in terms of information gain, which leads to the selection of six parameters to be used in prediction. Multiple computationally intelligent models have been developed for earthquake prediction using selected seismic parameters. These models include feed-forward neural network, recurrent neural network, random forest, multi layer perceptron, radial basis neural network, and support vector machine. The performance of every prediction model is evaluated and McNemar's statistical test is applied to observe the statistical significance of computational methodologies. Feed-forward neural network shows statistically significant predictions along with accuracy of 75% and positive predictive value of 78% in context of northern Pakistan.

  1. Prediction of burnout. Chapter 14

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, D.H.

    1977-01-01

    A broad survey is made of the effect on burnout heat flux of various system parameters to give the reader a better initial idea of the significance of changes in individual parameters. A detailed survey is then made of various correlation equations for predicting burnout for steam -water in uniformly heated tubes, annuli, rectangular channels and rod clusters, giving details of recommended equations. Finally comments are made on the influence of heat-flux profile and swirl flow on burnout, and on the definition of dryout margin. (author)

  2. First trimester prediction of maternal glycemic status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbay-Benziv, Rinat; Doyle, Lauren E; Blitzer, Miriam; Baschat, Ahmet A

    2015-05-01

    To predict gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or normoglycemic status using first trimester maternal characteristics. We used data from a prospective cohort study. First trimester maternal characteristics were compared between women with and without GDM. Association of these variables with sugar values at glucose challenge test (GCT) and subsequent GDM was tested to identify key parameters. A predictive algorithm for GDM was developed and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) statistics was used to derive the optimal risk score. We defined normoglycemic state, when GCT and all four sugar values at oral glucose tolerance test, whenever obtained, were normal. Using same statistical approach, we developed an algorithm to predict the normoglycemic state. Maternal age, race, prior GDM, first trimester BMI, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were all significantly associated with GDM. Age, BMI, and SBP were also associated with GCT values. The logistic regression analysis constructed equation and the calculated risk score yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 85%, 62%, 13.8%, and 98.3% for a cut-off value of 0.042, respectively (ROC-AUC - area under the curve 0.819, CI - confidence interval 0.769-0.868). The model constructed for normoglycemia prediction demonstrated lower performance (ROC-AUC 0.707, CI 0.668-0.746). GDM prediction can be achieved during the first trimester encounter by integration of maternal characteristics and basic measurements while normoglycemic status prediction is less effective.

  3. Prediction of cardiac death : an epidemiological study on the prognostic significance of 24-hour ECG-recording

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.P. Velema (Johan)

    1982-01-01

    textabstractSince the introduction of the string galvanometer by Einthoven (1901), various instruments have been developed (a technical review is given by Dunn & Rahm, 1950) to record the so-called electrocardiogram (ECG). Physical activity, changes in position and certain bodily functions such as

  4. The Relationship between Obsessive Compulsive Personality and Obsessive Compulsive Disorder Treatment Outcomes: Predictive Utility and Clinically Significant Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadri, Shalane K; McEvoy, Peter M; Egan, Sarah J; Kane, Robert T; Rees, Clare S; Anderson, Rebecca A

    2017-09-01

    The evidence regarding whether co-morbid obsessive compulsive personality disorder (OCPD) is associated with treatment outcomes in obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) is mixed, with some research indicating that OCPD is associated with poorer response, and some showing that it is associated with improved response. We sought to explore the role of OCPD diagnosis and the personality domain of conscientiousness on treatment outcomes for exposure and response prevention for OCD. The impact of co-morbid OCPD and conscientiousness on treatment outcomes was examined in a clinical sample of 46 participants with OCD. OCPD diagnosis and scores on conscientiousness were not associated with poorer post-treatment OCD severity, as indexed by Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (YBOCS) scores, although the relative sample size of OCPD was small and thus generalizability is limited. This study found no evidence that OCPD or conscientiousness were associated with treatment outcomes for OCD. Further research with larger clinical samples is required.

  5. Significant Pre-Accession Factors Predicting Success or Failure During a Marine Corps Officer’s Initial Service Obligation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    30 grams or less) CO MCD level waiver 317 Prostitution or solicitation for prostitution . 318 Reckless driving, careless, or imprudent (considered...property. 432 Public record; altering, concealing, destroying, mutilating, obligation, or removing. 433 Rape , sexual abuse, sexual assault

  6. Principalship in an Indonesian School Context: Can Principal Decision-Making Styles Significantly Predict Teacher Job Satisfaction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hariri, Hasan; Monypenny, Richard; Prideaux, Murray

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines relationships between teacher-perceived principal decision-making styles and teacher job satisfaction in schools in Lampung Province, Indonesia. We use the General Decision-making Style instrument, the Job Satisfaction Survey and a demographic questionnaire developed for this study. Our findings show that: 12 out of the 15…

  7. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

  8. Assessing dependency using self-report and indirect measures: examining the significance of discrepancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cogswell, Alex; Alloy, Lauren B; Karpinski, Andrew; Grant, David A

    2010-07-01

    The present study addressed convergence between self-report and indirect approaches to assessing dependency. We were moderately successful in validating an implicit measure, which was found to be reliable, orthogonal to 2 self-report instruments, and predictive of external criteria. This study also examined discrepancies between scores on self-report and implicit measures, and has implications for their significance. The possibility that discrepancies themselves are pathological was not supported, although discrepancies were associated with particular personality profiles. Finally, this study offered additional evidence for the relation between dependency and depressive symptomatology and identified implicit dependency as contributing unique variance in predicting past major depression.

  9. Prognosis of non-significant coronary atherosclerotic disease detected by coronary artery tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barros, Marcio Vinicius Lins; Siqueira, Bruna Pinto; Guimaraes, Carolina Camargos Braichi; Cruz, David Filipe Silva; Guimaraes, Leiziane Assuncao Alves; Lima, Maicom Marcio Perigolo, E-mail: marciovlbarros@gmail.com [Faculdade de Saude e Ecologia Humana, Vespasiano, MG (Brazil); Nunes, Maria do Carmo Pereira [Universidade de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Faculdade de Medicina; Siqueira, Maria Helena Albernaz [Hospital Materdei, Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-15

    Introduction: Although studies have shown high diagnostic accuracy of coronary tomography (CT) in detecting coronary artery disease (CAD), data on the prognostic value of this method in patients with no significant coronary obstruction are limited. Objective: To evaluate the value of CT in predicting adverse events in patients with suspected CAD and no significant coronary obstruction. Methods: We prospectively evaluated 440 patients between January 2008 and July 2013 by MDCT, diagnosed with no significant obstruction or no atherosclerotic coronary obstruction with an average follow-up of 33 months. The outcomes evaluated were: cardiac death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina associated with hospitalization or coronary artery bypass grafting. Results: Of the 440 patients studied, 295 (67%) were men with mean age 55.9 ± 12.0 years. Non-significant obstruction was found in 152 (35%) of the patients and there were 49 (11%) outcomes. In the multivariate analysis using the Cox regression model, the predictors of clinical outcomes were non-significant obstruction on CT (hazard ratio 3.51; 95% CI 1.73 - 7.8; p <0.01), age and hypertension. Non-significant obstruction on CT was associated with adverse clinical outcomes and survival analysis showed a significant difference (log-rank 24.6; p <0.01) in predicting these outcomes. Conclusion: The detection of non-significant atherosclerotic obstruction by CT was associated with the presence of adverse events in patients with suspected CAD, which may prove useful in the risk stratification of these patients. (author)

  10. Transionospheric propagation predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klobucher, J. A.; Basu, S.; Basu, S.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Davies, K.; Donatelli, D. E.; Fremouw, E. J.; Goodman, J. M.; Hartmann, G. K.; Leitinger, R.

    1979-01-01

    The current status and future prospects of the capability to make transionospheric propagation predictions are addressed, highlighting the effects of the ionized media, which dominate for frequencies below 1 to 3 GHz, depending upon the state of the ionosphere and the elevation angle through the Earth-space path. The primary concerns are the predictions of time delay of signal modulation (group path delay) and of radio wave scintillation. Progress in these areas is strongly tied to knowledge of variable structures in the ionosphere ranging from the large scale (thousands of kilometers in horizontal extent) to the fine scale (kilometer size). Ionospheric variability and the relative importance of various mechanisms responsible for the time histories observed in total electron content (TEC), proportional to signal group delay, and in irregularity formation are discussed in terms of capability to make both short and long term predictions. The data base upon which predictions are made is examined for its adequacy, and the prospects for prediction improvements by more theoretical studies as well as by increasing the available statistical data base are examined.

  11. Predictable grammatical constructions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucas, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    My aim in this paper is to provide evidence from diachronic linguistics for the view that some predictable units are entrenched in grammar and consequently in human cognition, in a way that makes them functionally and structurally equal to nonpredictable grammatical units, suggesting that these p......My aim in this paper is to provide evidence from diachronic linguistics for the view that some predictable units are entrenched in grammar and consequently in human cognition, in a way that makes them functionally and structurally equal to nonpredictable grammatical units, suggesting...... that these predictable units should be considered grammatical constructions on a par with the nonpredictable constructions. Frequency has usually been seen as the only possible argument speaking in favor of viewing some formally and semantically fully predictable units as grammatical constructions. However, this paper...... semantically and formally predictable. Despite this difference, [méllo INF], like the other future periphrases, seems to be highly entrenched in the cognition (and grammar) of Early Medieval Greek language users, and consequently a grammatical construction. The syntactic evidence speaking in favor of [méllo...

  12. Functional significance of SRJ domain mutations in CITED2.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiann-mun Chen

    Full Text Available CITED2 is a transcriptional co-activator with 3 conserved domains shared with other CITED family members and a unique Serine-Glycine Rich Junction (SRJ that is highly conserved in placental mammals. Loss of Cited2 in mice results in cardiac and aortic arch malformations, adrenal agenesis, neural tube and placental defects, and partially penetrant defects in left-right patterning. By screening 1126 sporadic congenital heart disease (CHD cases and 1227 controls, we identified 19 variants, including 5 unique non-synonymous sequence variations (N62S, R92G, T166N, G180-A187del and A187T in patients. Many of the CHD-specific variants identified in this and previous studies cluster in the SRJ domain. Transient transfection experiments show that T166N mutation impairs TFAP2 co-activation function and ES cell proliferation. We find that CITED2 is phosphorylated by MAPK1 in vitro at T166, and that MAPK1 activation enhances the coactivation function of CITED2 but not of CITED2-T166N. In order to investigate the functional significance in vivo, we generated a T166N mutation of mouse Cited2. We also used PhiC31 integrase-mediated cassette exchange to generate a Cited2 knock-in allele replacing the mouse Cited2 coding sequence with human CITED2 and with a mutant form deleting the entire SRJ domain. Mouse embryos expressing only CITED2-T166N or CITED2-SRJ-deleted alleles surprisingly show no morphological abnormalities, and mice are viable and fertile. These results indicate that the SRJ domain is dispensable for these functions of CITED2 in mice and that mutations clustering in the SRJ region are unlikely to be the sole cause of the malformations observed in patients with sporadic CHD. Our results also suggest that coding sequence mutations observed in case-control studies need validation using in vivo models and that predictions based on structural conservation and in vitro functional assays, or even in vivo global loss of function models, may be

  13. Clinical significance of determination serum sex hormones levels in patients with secondary amenorrhea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Hua

    2007-01-01

    Objective: To explore the clinical significance of changes of serum sex hormones levels in patients with secondary amenorrhea. Methods: Serum levels of E 2 , FSH, LH, PRL and P were detected with RIA in 33 patients with secondary amenorrhea and 30 controls. Results: In the patients, the serum E 2 levels were significantly lower and FSH, LH, PRL and P levels were significantly higher than those in controls (P 2 , FSH, LH, PRL and P levels is of help for assessment of severity of secondary amenorrhea as well as outcome prediction. (authors)

  14. Meditation experience predicts introspective accuracy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kieran C R Fox

    Full Text Available The accuracy of subjective reports, especially those involving introspection of one's own internal processes, remains unclear, and research has demonstrated large individual differences in introspective accuracy. It has been hypothesized that introspective accuracy may be heightened in persons who engage in meditation practices, due to the highly introspective nature of such practices. We undertook a preliminary exploration of this hypothesis, examining introspective accuracy in a cross-section of meditation practitioners (1-15,000 hrs experience. Introspective accuracy was assessed by comparing subjective reports of tactile sensitivity for each of 20 body regions during a 'body-scanning' meditation with averaged, objective measures of tactile sensitivity (mean size of body representation area in primary somatosensory cortex; two-point discrimination threshold as reported in prior research. Expert meditators showed significantly better introspective accuracy than novices; overall meditation experience also significantly predicted individual introspective accuracy. These results suggest that long-term meditators provide more accurate introspective reports than novices.

  15. Essays on Earnings Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Mark

    This dissertation addresses the prediction of corporate earnings. The thesis aims to examine whether the degree of precision in earnings forecasts can be increased by basing them on historical financial ratios. Furthermore, the intent of the dissertation is to analyze whether accounting standards...... forecasts are not more accurate than the simpler forecasts based on a historical timeseries of earnings. Secondly, the dissertation shows how accounting standards affect analysts’ earnings predictions. Accounting conservatism contributes to a more volatile earnings process, which lowers the accuracy...... of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the dissertation shows how the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of information about corporate earnings depends on how well corporate earnings can be predicted. The dissertation indicates that the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of earnings...

  16. Pulverized coal devolatilization prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojas, Andres F; Barraza, Juan M

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study was to predict the two bituminous coals devolatilization at low rate of heating (50 Celsius degrade/min), with program FG-DVC (functional group Depolymerization. Vaporization and crosslinking), and to compare the devolatilization profiles predicted by program FG-DVC, which are obtained in the thermogravimetric analyzer. It was also study the volatile liberation at (10 4 k/s) in a drop-tube furnace. The tar, methane, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide, formation rate profiles, and the hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen and sulphur, elemental distribution in the devolatilization products by FG-DVC program at low rate of heating was obtained; and the liberation volatile and R factor at high rate of heating was calculated. it was found that the program predicts the bituminous coals devolatilization at low rate heating, at high rate heating, a volatile liberation around 30% was obtained

  17. Predicting Ideological Prejudice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Mark J

    2017-06-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants' ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions for this association. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship was developed with a representative sample of Americans ( N = 4,940) and tested against models using the perceived status of and choice to belong to the target group as predictors. In four studies (total N = 2,093), ideology-prejudice associations were estimated, and these observed estimates were compared with the models' predictions. The model that was based only on perceived ideology was the most parsimonious with the smallest errors.

  18. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  19. Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

    2015-09-01

    Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as 'dyslexic' or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by

  20. Tide Predictions, California, 2014, NOAA

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The predictions from the web based NOAA Tide Predictions are based upon the latest information available as of the date of the user's request. Tide predictions...

  1. Predictive maintenance primer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flude, J.W.; Nicholas, J.R.

    1991-04-01

    This Predictive Maintenance Primer provides utility plant personnel with a single-source reference to predictive maintenance analysis methods and technologies used successfully by utilities and other industries. It is intended to be a ready reference to personnel considering starting, expanding or improving a predictive maintenance program. This Primer includes a discussion of various analysis methods and how they overlap and interrelate. Additionally, eighteen predictive maintenance technologies are discussed in sufficient detail for the user to evaluate the potential of each technology for specific applications. This document is designed to allow inclusion of additional technologies in the future. To gather the information necessary to create this initial Primer the Nuclear Maintenance Applications Center (NMAC) collected experience data from eighteen utilities plus other industry and government sources. NMAC also contacted equipment manufacturers for information pertaining to equipment utilization, maintenance, and technical specifications. The Primer includes a discussion of six methods used by analysts to study predictive maintenance data. These are: trend analysis; pattern recognition; correlation; test against limits or ranges; relative comparison data; and statistical process analysis. Following the analysis methods discussions are detailed descriptions for eighteen technologies analysts have found useful for predictive maintenance programs at power plants and other industrial facilities. Each technology subchapter has a description of the operating principles involved in the technology, a listing of plant equipment where the technology can be applied, and a general description of the monitoring equipment. Additionally, these descriptions include a discussion of results obtained from actual equipment users and preferred analysis techniques to be used on data obtained from the technology. 5 refs., 30 figs

  2. Predicting tile drainage discharge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Bo Vangsø; Kjærgaard, Charlotte; Petersen, Rasmus Jes

    used in the analysis. For the dynamic modelling, a simple linear reservoir model was used where different outlets in the model represented tile drain as well as groundwater discharge outputs. This modelling was based on daily measured tile drain discharge values. The statistical predictive model...... was based on a polynomial regression predicting yearly tile drain discharge values using site specific parameters such as soil type, catchment topography, etc. as predictors. Values of calibrated model parameters from the dynamic modelling were compared to the same site specific parameter as used...

  3. Linguistic Structure Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Noah A

    2011-01-01

    A major part of natural language processing now depends on the use of text data to build linguistic analyzers. We consider statistical, computational approaches to modeling linguistic structure. We seek to unify across many approaches and many kinds of linguistic structures. Assuming a basic understanding of natural language processing and/or machine learning, we seek to bridge the gap between the two fields. Approaches to decoding (i.e., carrying out linguistic structure prediction) and supervised and unsupervised learning of models that predict discrete structures as outputs are the focus. W

  4. Predicting Anthracycline Benefit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartlett, John M S; McConkey, Christopher C; Munro, Alison F

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite as measu......PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite...

  5. Prediction of Antibody Epitopes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Marcatili, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    Antibodies recognize their cognate antigens in a precise and effective way. In order to do so, they target regions of the antigenic molecules that have specific features such as large exposed areas, presence of charged or polar atoms, specific secondary structure elements, and lack of similarity...... to self-proteins. Given the sequence or the structure of a protein of interest, several methods exploit such features to predict the residues that are more likely to be recognized by an immunoglobulin.Here, we present two methods (BepiPred and DiscoTope) to predict linear and discontinuous antibody...

  6. Basis of predictive mycology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantigny, Philippe; Guilmart, Audrey; Bensoussan, Maurice

    2005-04-15

    For over 20 years, predictive microbiology focused on food-pathogenic bacteria. Few studies concerned modelling fungal development. On one hand, most of food mycologists are not familiar with modelling techniques; on the other hand, people involved in modelling are developing tools dedicated to bacteria. Therefore, there is a tendency to extend the use of models that were developed for bacteria to moulds. However, some mould specificities should be taken into account. The use of specific models for predicting germination and growth of fungi was advocated previously []. This paper provides a short review of fungal modelling studies.

  7. Prognostic significance of urinary NGAL in chronic kidney disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patel ML

    2015-10-01

    for uNGAL was 0.878 (95% confidence interval: 0.68–0.96. Cut-off value for uNGAL was log 3.5 unit with a sensitivity of 93.08% and specificity of 71.43% for predicting the progression of CKD. Kaplan–Meier survival curve showed that patients with log uNGAL levels <3.51 unit had a survival rate of 71.4% while patients with NGAL level >3.51 unit had a renal survival rate of 14.7%. Conclusion: Our study result showed that uNGAL has a positive correlation with disease severity which signifies the prognostic importance of uNGAL in CKD. Keywords: urinary NGAL, chronic kidney disease, prognostic significance

  8. Dopamine reward prediction error coding

    OpenAIRE

    Schultz, Wolfram

    2016-01-01

    Reward prediction errors consist of the differences between received and predicted rewards. They are crucial for basic forms of learning about rewards and make us strive for more rewards?an evolutionary beneficial trait. Most dopamine neurons in the midbrain of humans, monkeys, and rodents signal a reward prediction error; they are activated by more reward than predicted (positive prediction error), remain at baseline activity for fully predicted rewards, and show depressed activity with less...

  9. Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniël B van Schalkwijk

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to investigate whether lipoprotein metabolism indicators can improve cardiovascular risk prediction and therapy management. METHODS AND RESULTS: We calculated lipoprotein metabolism indicators for 1981 subjects (145 cases, 1836 controls from the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort in which NMR lipoprotein profiles were measured. We applied a statistical learning algorithm using a support vector machine to select conventional risk factors and lipoprotein metabolism indicators that contributed to predicting risk for general cardiovascular disease. Risk prediction was quantified by the change in the Area-Under-the-ROC-Curve (ΔAUC and by risk reclassification (Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI. Two VLDL lipoprotein metabolism indicators (VLDLE and VLDLH improved cardiovascular risk prediction. We added these indicators to a multivariate model with the best performing conventional risk markers. Our method significantly improved both CVD prediction and risk reclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Two calculated VLDL metabolism indicators significantly improved cardiovascular risk prediction. These indicators may help to reduce prescription of unnecessary cholesterol-lowering medication, reducing costs and possible side-effects. For clinical application, further validation is required.

  10. A Game Theoretic Approach to Cyber Attack Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng Liu

    2005-11-28

    The area investigated by this project is cyber attack prediction. With a focus on correlation-based prediction, current attack prediction methodologies overlook the strategic nature of cyber attack-defense scenarios. As a result, current cyber attack prediction methodologies are very limited in predicting strategic behaviors of attackers in enforcing nontrivial cyber attacks such as DDoS attacks, and may result in low accuracy in correlation-based predictions. This project develops a game theoretic framework for cyber attack prediction, where an automatic game-theory-based attack prediction method is proposed. Being able to quantitatively predict the likelihood of (sequences of) attack actions, our attack prediction methodology can predict fine-grained strategic behaviors of attackers and may greatly improve the accuracy of correlation-based prediction. To our best knowledge, this project develops the first comprehensive framework for incentive-based modeling and inference of attack intent, objectives, and strategies; and this project develops the first method that can predict fine-grained strategic behaviors of attackers. The significance of this research and the benefit to the public can be demonstrated to certain extent by (a) the severe threat of cyber attacks to the critical infrastructures of the nation, including many infrastructures overseen by the Department of Energy, (b) the importance of cyber security to critical infrastructure protection, and (c) the importance of cyber attack prediction to achieving cyber security.

  11. Steering smog prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. van Liere (Robert); J.J. van Wijk (Jack)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractThe use of computational steering for smog prediction is described. This application is representative for many underlying issues found in steering high performance applications: high computing times, large data sets, and many different input parameters. After a short description of the

  12. Predicting Sustainable Work Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Kim Sundtoft

    2013-01-01

    Sustainable work behavior is an important issue for operations managers – it has implications for most outcomes of OM. This research explores the antecedents of sustainable work behavior. It revisits and extends the sociotechnical model developed by Brown et al. (2000) on predicting safe behavior...

  13. Gate valve performance prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, D.H.; Damerell, P.S.; Wang, J.K.; Kalsi, M.S.; Wolfe, K.J.

    1994-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute is carrying out a program to improve the performance prediction methods for motor-operated valves. As part of this program, an analytical method to predict the stem thrust required to stroke a gate valve has been developed and has been assessed against data from gate valve tests. The method accounts for the loads applied to the disc by fluid flow and for the detailed mechanical interaction of the stem, disc, guides, and seats. To support development of the method, two separate-effects test programs were carried out. One test program determined friction coefficients for contacts between gate valve parts by using material specimens in controlled environments. The other test program investigated the interaction of the stem, disc, guides, and seat using a special fixture with full-sized gate valve parts. The method has been assessed against flow-loop and in-plant test data. These tests include valve sizes from 3 to 18 in. and cover a considerable range of flow, temperature, and differential pressure. Stem thrust predictions for the method bound measured results. In some cases, the bounding predictions are substantially higher than the stem loads required for valve operation, as a result of the bounding nature of the friction coefficients in the method

  14. Prediction method abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This conference was held December 4--8, 1994 in Asilomar, California. The purpose of this meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information concerning the prediction of protein structure. Attention if focused on the following: comparative modeling; sequence to fold assignment; and ab initio folding.

  15. Predicting Intrinsic Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Rob; Kirschner, Paul A.

    2004-01-01

    Intrinsic motivation can be predicted from participants' perceptions of the social environment and the task environment (Ryan & Deci, 2000)in terms of control, relatedness and competence. To determine the degree of independence of these factors 251 students in higher vocational education (physiotherapy and hotel management) indicated the…

  16. Predicting visibility of aircraft.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Watson

    Full Text Available Visual detection of aircraft by human observers is an important element of aviation safety. To assess and ensure safety, it would be useful to be able to be able to predict the visibility, to a human observer, of an aircraft of specified size, shape, distance, and coloration. Examples include assuring safe separation among aircraft and between aircraft and unmanned vehicles, design of airport control towers, and efforts to enhance or suppress the visibility of military and rescue vehicles. We have recently developed a simple metric of pattern visibility, the Spatial Standard Observer (SSO. In this report we examine whether the SSO can predict visibility of simulated aircraft images. We constructed a set of aircraft images from three-dimensional computer graphic models, and measured the luminance contrast threshold for each image from three human observers. The data were well predicted by the SSO. Finally, we show how to use the SSO to predict visibility range for aircraft of arbitrary size, shape, distance, and coloration.

  17. Climate Prediction Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Enter Search Term(s): Search Search the CPC Go NCEP Quarterly Newsletter Climate Highlights U.S Climate-Weather El Niño/La Niña MJO Blocking AAO, AO, NAO, PNA Climatology Global Monsoons Expert

  18. Predicting Commissary Store Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    stores or if it is possible to predict that success. Multiple studies of private commercial grocery consumer preferences , habits and demographics have...appropriate number of competitors due to the nature of international cultures and consumer preferences . 2. Missing Data Four of the remaining stores

  19. Predicting Job Satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blai, Boris, Jr.

    Psychological theories about human motivation and accommodation to environment can be used to achieve a better understanding of the human factors that function in the work environment. Maslow's theory of human motivational behavior provided a theoretical framework for an empirically-derived method to predict job satisfaction and explore the…

  20. Ocean Prediction Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Social Media Facebook Twitter YouTube Search Search For Go NWS All NOAA Weather Analysis & Forecasts of Commerce Ocean Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Analysis & Unified Surface Analysis Ocean Ocean Products Ice & Icebergs NIC Ice Products NAIS Iceberg Analysis